Money for nothing

This week we talked about the tale of two markets, one dribbling away like a Boomer’s bladder, the other frothing over. Given the increasing weirdness of our Trumpian times, and the renaissance of that evil Border Adjustment Tax, the greater fools still competing for pieces of GTA turf may soon regret it. Maybe not. But they’re sure paying through the nose.

Here’s a small example of what happens at the intersection of stupidity and greed.

If you asked the 1970s to come back and visit you, they’d arrive inside 16 Parmalea, in a soul-sucking geriatric suburb on the western edge of 416. Sitting under a flightpath to the sprawling Pearson airport a couple of clicks to the west, Parmalea is one of those curvy little crescents that now-dead urban planners thought were such a good idea. Homogenity gone nuts. Houses with all the unique character and intrigue of a Dodge Caravan.

But, hey, some people like living here – enough, obviously, that an unrenovated home can sell for over-asking, get flipped, and sell again in a second bidding war. Nothing spectacular. No media coverage. Just a wee example of social dementia.

“The realtor who helped us purchase our home sent over something interesting” blog dog Rob reports. “A house in our area was listed in the summer for $799,888 and sold for $960,000.

“It seems as though it was purchased by a numbered company.”

Indeed. Here’s the ‘sold’ listing.

Rob continues. “It was placed on the market a few weeks ago at $999,888 and just sold for $1,200,000.. Looking at the pictures, absolutely no work was done and seven months later it sells for a 25% premium? This seems to be a bit ridiculous, wouldn’t you agree? It seems as though we are entering or have entered the euphoric stage.”

You betcha, Rob. And here’s the second ‘sold’ listing.

So the journey from $800,000, which seems like a lot for a house that needs two hundred in fixes, to $1.2 million took but a few months and involved no effort. But just contemplate how much money circulated. The city made a total of $70,800 in land transfer tax. Lawyers took at least five grand from two transactions. Real estate agents and their brokers charged $108,000. There was almost $20,000 in HST collected. Plus mortgage appraisals, application fees, insurance premiums and amortized interest. So a house that did nothing but sit there had more than $200,000 spent on it with no improvements or renos done.

This is the FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) economy at work. Some think it’s exactly why we’re screwed. Nothing was manufactured. No good produced. No job created. Just more inflation, over-valuation and manufactured equity – all supported by increased levels of debt.

This worries economists even more than their pathetic personalities. Real estate and financial services make up a stunning 20% of the country’s entire GDP. Worse, at $2 trillion, household debt now exceeds the economy in total, with 65% of that sitting in mortgages. Residential construction alone is 7% of all economic activity (about the same as oil and gas) with the house-selling business accounting for 12.4%

In fact, the biggest contributor to Canadian growth since the price of oil started to tumble a few years ago has been real estate. This is the single biggest component of our national enterprise. Bigger than the oil sands. All the car companies. All the factories. There are more than 110,000 realtors. If you laid them all end-to-end, it would be a good start.

The risk is clear. The stakes are high. If Toronto catches what Vancouver has, we’re in for an historic ride.

Meanwhile, at 16 Parmalea, there’s a shiny new family. They’d better like it.

190 comments ↓

#1 Wpgwaldo on 02.02.17 at 6:09 pm

And the insanity continues.

#2 cecilhenry on 02.02.17 at 6:13 pm

What real estate really says about Canada:

There’s no great place to live here. This is not what prosperity looks like.

#3 Doug t on 02.02.17 at 6:14 pm

EPIC times – it’s like the perfect storm with real estate in this country. Once it drops (and it will) there are going to be some hurtin people out there. But hey everybody drank the koolaid and the hangover will be a b*tch.

#4 Musty Basement Dweller on 02.02.17 at 6:25 pm

What is the significance of the purchase by a numbered company? Does that mean it is more difficult to determine the true origin of the money?

None. Who cares? — Garth

#5 Lulu on 02.02.17 at 6:32 pm

Haha, Garth, there are many many SFH been bought during the year from 2015-2016 that not living in and just let them sitting for a few months and back on the market for a profit and real estate company engaged in this kind of activity with no shame. Who can resist this quick money for no work involve (except waving your pen and sign the lines and dots).

Also flippers and small home builders did this as well, actual real buyers are far less in the numbers. Surprised eh! In the Markham and Richmond Hill area is the battle ground, their average selling price is now pass the Big Smoke. They speculate it just like sautee veggies in a hot wok..lol

It was the same before the foreign tax in the Vancity as well, like you said foreign buyers only account less than 5 % and it proves here in the Big Smoke as well, it’s the local did that and government can’t or won’t do anything about it. Crusty Clark just lifted the tax for people with work permit… and loopholes been found for that, means market may fire up once again. We’ll see that as it plays along during the Spring and right before the election there. Amazing she can do this just for the vote. Meanwhile Kathleen is doing nothing since her hydro problem enough to bring her down, she can’t afford any more arrows.

#6 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 6:35 pm

All political parties own this issue.
Will be interesting to see who is in power if (when)it implodes.

I suspect that the economic fallout will be worse than many believe.
There is nothing else propping up our economy, what with energy investment either being discouraged, or unprofitable in Canada.

#7 Joe Schmoe on 02.02.17 at 6:36 pm

#4

Income tax was likely paid on the profits from the last sale.

Pretty much the only difference.

Unless Mr and Mrs Numbered lost money on another sale offsetting the gain.

In my hood most the #d sales are RE Agents. Not sure if that holds in TO.

#8 Fleabitten Monkey on 02.02.17 at 6:37 pm

Do we know for a fact there is a shiny new family who are actually going to occupy it? Perhaps its simply bought to speculate and be flipped again.

#9 TLG on 02.02.17 at 6:37 pm

It is different this time because government controls and manipulates supply and demand and makes the rules as well. The country would collapse if the “bubble”is allowed to end. Garth’s headstone will read “this won’t end well”but this “bubble”will still be inflating.

#10 Mike on 02.02.17 at 6:38 pm

Alberta is going through pretty rough times.

Did real estate prices for SFH crash(crash!) there? No.

This is Canada, the land of rich and prosperous. They can pay any price the realtor would tell them. Any.

#11 President Trump on 02.02.17 at 6:40 pm

this gentleman is scary. Does he play on tweeting as President!?!

what is going on

to think I could have bought Gold in November when everyone was market crazy

#12 mike from mtl on 02.02.17 at 6:41 pm

Totally agreed, which exactly why the gooberment will never seriously try to actively kill this.

Regardless pf BoC actions, even if by some magical miracle leading rates increase quickly, there’s lots of laws and exceptions that can be done. 40+ yr Am, 0 down, grants and subsidies…

As you so succinctly wrote the vested interests are many.

Plus a major portion of this is demographics, nearly every boomer I know the major or all their net worth is in ‘the house’. So Until that damn generation finally passes completely (2040s) nothing will change.

#13 Victor V on 02.02.17 at 6:43 pm

Vancouver home sales plunge 39.5% amid ‘lukewarm start’ to 2017

http://www.bnn.ca/vancouver-home-sales-plunge-39-5-amid-lukewarm-start-to-2017-1.663114

#14 Self Directed on 02.02.17 at 6:44 pm

16 Parmalea is insanely overvalued! With every new round of fools, they let the previous round off the hook with a huge sigh of relief. It goes from …

“Honey, our assessment just arrived in the mail… WE PAID HOW MUCH OVER ASSESSED? YIKES!”

the following year….

“Honey… we’re finally at par with our assessment, but the new people next door? They just paid $xx over assessed!”

The last families to buy are going to get hurt the most. If you imagine that being your family… it’s really not funny at all.

#15 JSS on 02.02.17 at 6:44 pm

– BCE increases dividend 5.1%
– Brookfield Property Partners increases dividend 5%

Rub tummy

#16 crdt on 02.02.17 at 6:47 pm

Out here in the sticks in Langley, properties are getting sold dangerously close to our house. Looks like someone is looking to develop wholesale in my neck of the woods. When will this end?

#17 H Epstein on 02.02.17 at 6:50 pm

Anything west of Dufferin is speculation. Who would really want to live there let along pay anything like that. House looks like something my uncle would live in and he’s dead.

#18 close to Pearson? on 02.02.17 at 6:50 pm

Fantastic location when you’re always late to your flight. Also great potential for late, late Air BnB arrivals.

The villa has bordello style written all over it. For those in a hurry and in-between flights…

Endless possibilities to make $$ in this property.

Pass the koolaid!

#19 I'm NOT Poloz on 02.02.17 at 6:51 pm

Toronto will always be the greatest city in the world to live in. That’s why people pay a premium to live in Toronto.

It is only misogynists who hate the world class of city of Toronto.

BTW, I agree with Stephen Poloz that the Canadian Dollar is overvalued. We can’t export to our potential on a 77-cent Loonie.

We should strive for a 30-cent or 25-cent Loonie. I trust Stephen Poloz will stop the overvaluation of our currency by cutting interest rates on March 01, 2017 to 0.00% or negative.

Raising interest rates on an overvalued dollar affects our exports, while increasing the costs of a mortgage and tuition?

Fact: When you educate a girl, you empower the world, but increasing interest rates only make it harder for women in Toronto to pay their mortgages and student loans.

It is only the under-18 crowd who will be the first generation in Ontario to receive “free tuition”. We should cut interest rates to lower the interest charges on Ontario’s debt because we absolutely cannot make it impossible to empower our women in Toronto.

Stephen Poloz should cut interest rates and lower the Loonie to 45-cents by the end of this Quarter to boost exports. Our country needs a lower loonie. If I was Bank of Canada Governor I will introduce negative 5% interest rates to increase spending, aiming for a 25-cent or 10-cent Loonie will boost our exports.

05-cent Loonie doesn’t sound that bad either. It will create more jobs and boost exports for our economy.

#20 45north on 02.02.17 at 6:53 pm

If Toronto catches what Vancouver has, we’re in for an historic ride.

an historic ride down. At some point buyers stop buying and the market freezes up. the money that changed hands as the market went up is gone.

I grew up in Toronto. What’s going to happen to the world I knew?

#21 I'm stupid on 02.02.17 at 6:53 pm

I remember as a young adult my father telling me that you should never buy a home before selling the one you have unless you can afford to do so. I think many buyers are doing just that and if things get ugly they’ll be stuck with an illiquid property and mortgages they can’t afford. Most of the market assumes that it’s easy to sell your home and it has been for a long time but if the music stops there will be a lot of pain!

#22 Entrepreneur on 02.02.17 at 6:55 pm

The musical house keeps on playing, when will it stops no one knows but don’t get got holding the mortgage when the music stops. Vancouver played that game and 40% drop in housing sales, pricing next.

It is so sad that we have come to this level of thinking, playing with emotions for a sale, money.

#23 Self Directed on 02.02.17 at 6:58 pm

16 Parmalea… the taxes in 2016 were $5K? The lot is only 5,000 sq ft. I could not afford to live in the GTA.. I better stay here in GVRD.

#24 Brian Ripley on 02.02.17 at 7:02 pm

If Toronto catches what Vancouver has, we’re in for an historic ride. Garth

I have Calgary and Vancouver housing charts up now
http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html

Vancouver bulls are taking a nap.
Calgary bulls heard trumpets.

#25 Chaddywack on 02.02.17 at 7:05 pm

Numbered company….

Foreign Buyers (Likely from Mainland China) or Speculators?

#26 prairie person on 02.02.17 at 7:05 pm

Times Colonist today. Headline. Fewer Homes, Higher Prices
For-sale inventory at record low, region’s home prices rise 21%.
I own a house but I’m not jumping for joy. This is nuts.

#27 Millennials are good obedient puppets on 02.02.17 at 7:13 pm

Millennials are by far the most brainwashed and obedient puppets the system ever created. They couldn’t string an independent thought if their lives depended on it. The only generation willing to dig a hole and beg to be buried in a mountain of debt. Boomers are laughing at the utter stupidity and mental weakness of the future salve generation.

#28 Neddly on 02.02.17 at 7:15 pm

Numbered company was probably just 1 of the thousands of 500k a year doctors / lawyers / contractors that saw the upward trigrctory and figured they could make a quick buck.
Only going to keep going up as these people keep succeeding.

Incorporating a company with a unique name is expensive and slow. A company with a numbered name is quick and cheap. There is no mystery or shady dealing implied. You sound inexperienced. — Garth

#29 Nemesis on 02.02.17 at 7:16 pm

“None. Who cares?” — LaissezFaireGarth

#FunnyYouShouldSayThat,Or… #It’sHarderToGetALibraryCardInThisTown… #ThanItIsToLaunder$57M…

https://youtu.be/lnjktXtXxfk

[Sun] – Nearly half of Vancouver luxury homes have hidden ownership: Report

…“A recent study found that of 60 countries around the world — including known tax havens and secrecy jurisdictions — only in Kenya and a select few U.S. states is it easier to set up an untraceable company than it is in Canada,” the report states. “In Canada, more rigorous identity checks are done for individuals getting library cards than for 
those setting up companies.”…

http://vancouversun.com/storyline/nearly-half-of-vancouver-luxury-homes-have-hidden-ownership-report

#30 TurnerNation on 02.02.17 at 7:26 pm

But how many blogs could a blog dog log if a blog dog could log blogs?!

Vexing.

#31 Darryl on 02.02.17 at 7:26 pm

“”There are more than 110,000 realtors. If you laid them all end-to-end, it would be a good start.”

—————————————————————–
Haha
Your best line yet Garth .

#32 The Wet Coast on 02.02.17 at 7:30 pm

Toronto is the greatest city in the world, sounds just like The Holliwood clown in the Titanic movie. We all know what happened next.

Grown Daugther gets job offer in TO. She’s lived in Vancouver all her life. So I tell her to spend a week in Hog town. She lasted 4 days, back in Vancouver. She said “Dad you knew and your laughing at me”. I tell her sometimes ya just gotta let children find the ugly truth on their own.

#33 Smartalox on 02.02.17 at 7:32 pm

Amazing how recent buyers power the FIRE economy purely by taking on more ever-increasing debt loads.

Sure, for a lot buyers ‘moving up’ from properties with inflated equity, the increases in debt are incremental, so that only the smaller proportion of ‘first time’ buyers are carrying the industry by taking on mortgage debt.

Privatization used to rely on a limited number of very wealthy people, taking risks with capital, while the masses sat around waiting for jobs.

Now privatization has been democratized: the capital levels may be similar, but the risk has been offloaded from a few creditors and diffused to a multitude of debtors. Top-down, diffusing risk seems like a great idea, as no one ‘engine’ of the economy is too big to fail. But from the bottom-up, the perspective can be very different, based on the individual debt holders’ capacity to shoulder the burden.

JP Rockefeller or Warren Buffett have the means to manage risk associated with their investments, Jane and Joe Average maybe not so much.

But it sure is cool to see an economy being made!

Sitting here on the sidelines, this merry go round economy becomes breathtakingly obvious. But I can see how if you’re riding the merry-go-round, it can feel like a fabulous, exciting horse race.

Watching as others shoulder massive debt burdens to will the economy into being, I expect to feel a pang of guilt, like I should be doing my ‘part’ too.

But then it passes, and as I shake my head, all I can think is “Suckers!”

#34 Doug t on 02.02.17 at 7:33 pm

Uh oh Trump talking bout BAT – if that goes through we are SCREWED – you want to see a housing crash worse than 25% – this would not only do that but the job losses would be astronomical.

Shits getting real – RATM

#35 Balmuto on 02.02.17 at 7:34 pm

“#169 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 6:20 pm

Please don’t justify your position based upon anything from the mainstream media…”

How predictable.

“When Donald does something that I think is pretty egregious (racist or unfair or illegal) I will absolutely react.”

Haven’t you seen enough???

#36 Darryl on 02.02.17 at 7:34 pm

#4 Musty Basement Dweller on 02.02.17 at 6:25 pm
What is the significance of the purchase by a numbered company? Does that mean it is more difficult to determine the true origin of the money?
None. Who cares? — Garth
—————————————————————-
I would care if it turned out the first seller got taken by a RE agent with a numbered company . The RE agent could have convinced the seller that the sell price was good when it wasn’t . Then turned it for profit later on . Or it could have been a friend or family of the agent .

Just sayin

#37 Millennials are good obedient puppets on 02.02.17 at 7:35 pm

Millennials out number boomers but boomers out smart millennials. Hey millennials just don’t buy and let the sellers come to you. All that obedient schooling have left you without thought. Millennials begging to be slaves . Get on your knees and beg to be slaves. http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/couple-in-early-20s-denied-toronto-condo-rental-due-to-their-age-1.3953905#commentwrapper

#38 Dave on 02.02.17 at 7:35 pm

As long as we have people like Crooked Christy running BC, this kind of nonsense will continue.

#39 paulo on 02.02.17 at 7:40 pm

Well it’s the “Trumpinator VS the Terminator” Whom Will Be Back!

#40 Daveyboy on 02.02.17 at 7:42 pm

Moved to North West Arkansas. No house horney people here. There is 5 fortune 100 companies here . Unemployment is under 3 percent. Homes are affordable . Good luck Toronto all the best.

#41 palebird on 02.02.17 at 7:43 pm

All these dreamers who believe the real estate smorg will never end.. it will end this year as soon as the POTUS lays down his new border taxes. What is left of our economy will slow down to a crawl and the real estate game will be up for this round. Should be in full effect by summer 2017. Enjoy the show.

#42 Ric Louis on 02.02.17 at 7:45 pm

When killing time I enjoy driving around average 70s and 80s era outer suburban developments – the emptiness and cheapness of mass construction humours me. Plus the fact that these ‘rich’ people who live there rarely spend the money landscaping and on trees other than the city planted trees. You end up with very ugly spaces. To see that people are paying over a million bucks to live in such drabness proves that we are due for a good crash.

#43 Nero on 02.02.17 at 7:46 pm

I imagine a hefty capital gains tax for a property flipped like that quick.

Right CRA?……crickets…..

Pass me my fiddle.

#44 Musty Basement Dweller on 02.02.17 at 7:51 pm

What is the significance of the purchase by a numbered company? Does that mean it is more difficult to determine the true origin of the money?

None. Who cares? — Garth
=========================
I care because I’m interested in real estate markets and prices. And the source of money, arguably, can have a noticeable impact on the price of real estate.

#45 Smartalox on 02.02.17 at 7:56 pm

More thoughts on the Merry-Go-Round metaphor for the FIRE economy:

– The Merry Go Round is powered by the footsteps of the people who are riding on it.
– The inertia is reduced with every step, so it keeps spinning faster and faster
– The speed is great, so singles and couples have to take a running start and exert themselves to try to leap on.
– The atmosphere on the merry go round is filled with lights, calliope music and other distractions, to provide the illusion of excitement, and to obscure the fact that riders aren’t really ‘going’ anywhere.
– Regulators, charged with the safety of the merry go round, were asleep at the controls while the whole thing accelerated.
– Now that speeds have reached critical levels, the merry-go-round has too many people on it, and is about to fly apart.
– The regulator knows that the merry go round is powered by people’s footsteps, and that simply engaging the brake is likely to shear peoples’ legs off at the knee.
– There are likely lots of people who would like to get off the merry go round, but who stand at the edge, too scared at the thought of a skinned knee, and hoping the regulator will think of a way to stop things safely.
– There are also lots of people who want to see the merry go round go faster, because they think it’s fun.

#46 Guy in Calgary on 02.02.17 at 7:58 pm

“Millennials are by far the most brainwashed and obedient puppets the system ever created. They couldn’t string an independent thought if their lives depended on it. The only generation willing to dig a hole and beg to be buried in a mountain of debt. Boomers are laughing at the utter stupidity and mental weakness of the future salve generation.”

You must watch the news and assume it is all true. You probably assume we are all entitled and stupid. Perhaps you think we are lazy and never had to work for anything. Liberal millenials at an occupy strike do not represent an entire generation, they are just the one’s that post their lives on social media. No one cares about the millenials that work hard, save their money and just go about their lives because that would go against your point and make some boring news.

Gotta love millennial bashing. It is very “in” these days. Yes we are the most “brainwashed” generation, propaganda never existed and Vietnam was a great war. The fact that you even make a comment like that shows your inability to make an independent thought and your recency bias is glaring. Get a grip.

#47 earlybird on 02.02.17 at 8:14 pm

Haha…”At the intersection of Stupidity and Greed”…beautifully put….and an accurate description…love it!

#48 Blacksheep on 02.02.17 at 8:15 pm

On the issue of companies buying real-estate:

If a company owner, that owns RE, held inside (ABC Corp) sells its shares to another party (# company or not) the buyer of said ABC corp. pays no land transfer tax on the RE because the name listed as owner at the land title office does not change.

ABC Corp. is still the registered owner.

I thought this has been going on in Van for years?

I know there’s more to it than this, but I’m working from lost memories and I’m sure you will correct me anyway.

#49 Starbucks on 02.02.17 at 8:17 pm

I buy all rental properties thru numbered company it’s a no brainer. I buy all etfs & stocks aswell thru numbered company. If you own a business it’s a no brainer.

#50 joe socks on 02.02.17 at 8:20 pm

#23 Self Directed on 02.02.17 at 6:58 pm
16 Parmalea… the taxes in 2016 were $5K? The lot is only 5,000 sq ft. I could not afford to live in the GTA.. I better stay here in GVRD.
————————————————
I pay $4200 in tax for an end unit townhouse in ancaster and $4000 for a middle unit! taxes in Toronto are cheap

#51 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 8:20 pm

#35 Balmuto on 02.02.17 at 7:34 pm

—————————-
Haven’t you seen enough???

I’ve seen enought of T2 to know he will bankrupt the country and likely the Millenial generation.
I saw enough of Obama to know that his inaction and fecklessnes caused the Syrian refugee issue to occur in the first place.
I’ve seen enough of Notley to know she does not know how to manage an economy.
I saw enough of Hillary to know she was a horrible candidate.
And I’ve seen enough of Donald to know that while he is an arrogant blowhard, his policies will very likely be good for America, and what is good for America is good for the world.

As I said, if you already don’t like his policies so far, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

#52 Garth's executive order on 02.02.17 at 8:21 pm

”There are more than 110,000 realtors. If you laid them all end-to-end, it would be a good start.”

You are learning fast, it took only a week and you sound already like a Trump Executive Order.

You can improve: next time just tweet it.

What’s the big deal with them, anyway?
Aren’t they on commission, taking all the risk with cutthroat competition?

#53 Smoking Man on 02.02.17 at 8:21 pm

#37 Millennials are good obedient puppets on 02.02.17 at 7:35 pm
Millennials out number boomers but boomers out smart millennials. Hey millennials just don’t buy and let the sellers come to you. All that obedient schooling have left you without thought. Millennials begging to be slaves . Get on your knees and beg to be slaves. http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/couple-in-early-20s-denied-toronto-condo-rental-due-to-their-age-1.3953905#commentwrapper.

……….

An excerpt from my book. As you know the world is ruled by an alien named Shlong Zumanga. This is what he’s been up the 200 years.

“Smokey just look what I’ve done in the western world. I’m worth
five hundred trillion dollars. I own and control all of the
mainstream media, every politician, central banks in every country.
The United Nations, Agenda 21, My new religion the climate
change, gender wars, race wars. LGBT. Open borders. It’s
all part of my destabilization plan. Once I economically and
psychologically destroy the western world it will be easy for me to
come out of the shadows and be the world’s savior. People will
kneel to me and my hybrids. Humans in the western world are
stupid by design. I get their kids early, my curriculum ensures the
removal of critical thought and thinking. The biggest ass kissers get
rewarded with the best obedience certificates. The icing on the cake
is the idiots pay for it by going into debt at my banks to pay for my
schools, a win-win. I’ve made the latest generation of students soft
little snowflakes, easy to control and they even police themselves.
They are programmed to go hysterical if they sense someone trying
to educate them, this is my best generation ever. Now the Russians
and Chinese are much harder to deal with.”

#54 joe socks on 02.02.17 at 8:23 pm

#36 Darryl on 02.02.17 at 7:34 pm
#4 Musty Basement Dweller on 02.02.17 at 6:25 pm
What is the significance of the purchase by a numbered company? Does that mean it is more difficult to determine the true origin of the money?
None. Who cares? — Garth
—————————————————————-
I would care if it turned out the first seller got taken by a RE agent with a numbered company . The RE agent could have convinced the seller that the sell price was good when it wasn’t . Then turned it for profit later on . Or it could have been a friend or family of the agent .

Just sayin

—————————————————–
happens a hell of a lot in Hamilton.

#55 16 Parmalea on 02.02.17 at 8:23 pm

“SUCKERS FOR THE LONG HAUL”

#56 joblo on 02.02.17 at 8:23 pm

a .77 cdn$, what gives?

#57 Freedom First on 02.02.17 at 8:27 pm

#19 I’m NOT Poloz

FOT

#58 Ret on 02.02.17 at 8:27 pm

Nothing like a wide angle lens to make the place look bigger than it shows on Google. Small sideyard, no backyard. Lot size 50×108. Corner lot.

Everyone on the street now thinks that there place is now worth at least $1.2M. They will want $1-200,000 more, especially as they have recently painted their powder room and replaced a screen door!

#59 cramar on 02.02.17 at 8:28 pm

39 paulo on 02.02.17 at 7:40 pm
Well it’s the “Trumpinator VS the Terminator” Whom Will Be Back!

—————-

Well the Terminator had by far the best line!

#60 cramar on 02.02.17 at 8:31 pm

Nouriel Roubini says:

6 reasons Trump’s erratic, destructive policies could tank the markets

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/6-reasons-trumps-erratic-destructive-policies-could-tank-the-markets-2017-02-02

#61 LJ on 02.02.17 at 8:34 pm

CRA should be all over these types of deals. There’s a lot of money left on the table. And, they could technically go back a couple of years looking for unpaid capital gains – it’d be easy if they had access to the sales records, which shouldn’t be too hard to get.

Hand the data to a “supercomputer” to sort it and “voila” a list of collections should come up. Hope those guys kept all of their paperwork…

#62 Balmuto on 02.02.17 at 8:37 pm

#51 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 8:20 pm

“I’ve seen enough of Donald to know that while he is an arrogant blowhard, his policies will very likely be good for America”

Why?

“and what is good for America is good for the world.”

Why again?

#63 mike from mtl on 02.02.17 at 8:44 pm

Incorporating a company with a unique name is expensive and slow. A company with a numbered name is quick and cheap. There is no mystery or shady dealing implied. You sound inexperienced. — Garth

////////////////////////////////////////////////

Exactly I pay my ‘landlord’ an actual pro, via a numbered company. Owning 100m+ of RE is very expensive and complicated here. So what? In QC to get properly named is very difficult.

Those amateur landlords ‘owning’ a few units are in for a world of hurt.

#64 Ret on 02.02.17 at 8:48 pm

#50 “I pay $4200 in tax for an end unit townhouse in Ancaster and $4000 for a middle unit! taxes in Toronto are cheap.”

Taxes in T.O. should be cheaper. Torontonians are the chosen. JT and Kathleen can’t stop taxing the rest of Ontario to buy Toronto votes.

Economic powerhouse of the province, center of all that is good and just, … blah, blah, blah.

#65 Nonplused on 02.02.17 at 8:48 pm

Wait, I almost missed that. They charge HST on “used” houses in Ontario??? So lets see, property taxes, check. GST on utilities, check. Land transfer tax, check. Income tax before you have any money to pay other taxes, check. And now HST on the value of a second hand house? It’s probably been there for a while but I missed that one. And now of curse carbon taxes are coming. So we have 6 different taxes on owning a house, all of them onerous. Time for a revolution.

“Incorporating a company with a unique name is expensive and slow. A company with a numbered name is quick and cheap. There is no mystery or shady dealing implied. You sound inexperienced. — Garth”

I work through a numbered company and there is nothing dishonest about it. My clients know who they are hiring but it has to go through a company so my customers can skirt “deemed employee” laws. For example as a contractor I have to pay for my own benefits and I don’t get severance and such when the contract ends. But even though that was always part of the deal when hiring a contractor, wouldn’t you know it enough people sued to cause companies to refuse to hire contractors other than through a company. That way the contractor works for the numbered company not the hiring company. It’s just a reaction to dishonest behavior from the contractors. Anyway I bake my lost benefits into the rate I charge, so much as I can.

Sometimes when I go into a project, I get comments from the employees indicating they don’t like the idea of “expensive consultants”. Well, but I don’t get benefits, a pension or even an RRSP match, no health spending account, and they can fire me without notice and all I get is a termination payout if one is even specified in the contract, which I never ask for. There is a reason contractors and consultants get paid more. Flexibility.

HST on commissions and fees. — Garth

#66 Victor V on 02.02.17 at 8:54 pm

http://stephaniefusco.com/2017/02/what-its-like-to-house-hunt-in-toronto/

It’s December 2013: Newly engaged, armed with a realistic set of demands, good down payment, a real estate agent and help from our families. We’re about to dip our toe into the Toronto real estate market. Bright-eyed, bushy-tailed, full of optimism, we’re convinced that we’ll buoyantly announce an impending house closing at Christmas.

It’s now January 2017. Nearly 2-years married, budget doubled, morale destroyed. Hundreds of houses seen, multiple offers signed, delivered and returned. Heartfelt letters written to sellers who couldn’t care less that we don’t plan to flip or knock down their house. That we’d like to fill it with laughing, playing children. That we’d like to care for it like they did.

#67 Looney Baloney on 02.02.17 at 8:55 pm

#19 well said. We must empower women at all costs. If the S does HTF, because women are the gentler sex, this will also ensure our children are well cared for. Women and children first!

As our host has said many times, FIRE is what is holding up our economy. And it is no secret that women love houses. Therefore, the more women we enlighten about the benefits of delaying marriage and having children while emphasising the importance of pursuing a career, the more women we would have in the workforce, which would automatically lead to more houses being sold.

This is the age of women. It is their turn to shine. Men have held them back for way too long. Demagogues like Trump will be but mere road kill in the rear view mirror in our pursuit of the promised feminist Utopia. Hear them roar!

OK I’m maxed out.

#68 Rexx Rock on 02.02.17 at 9:09 pm

I’d rather live in a van and work $11 an hour in Vancouver then live in GTA making $40 hr and in a nice downtown condo..No need to explain if you ever been to Vancouver.Great wages in both cities explain high house prices.

#69 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 02.02.17 at 9:09 pm

” “It was placed on the market a few weeks ago at $999,888 and just sold for $1,200,000.. Looking at the pictures, absolutely no work was done and seven months later it sells for a 25% premium?”

It’s called mortgage fraud.

#70 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 9:10 pm

#51 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 8:20 pm

Why #1
Because America has been a patsy for the world in terms of trade.
as China has become an economic powerhouse at the expense of US jobs. Europe has become a safe and secure trading competitor at the expense of US taxpayers funding military protection.
Because the political system and the Democrats and Republicans are morally bankrupt due to industry lobbying, and policital fundraising fraud. The American government does not work for the people, it works for the government.

Why#2

Because an economically strong America drives growth in the worlds economy. Always has and always will.
Because a strong Amerian military provides checks against China and Russia. (Or do you think that China and Russia are benign entities?)

And mainly because despite all of the ‘progress’ in the last 50 years, and whining in the last 14 days, the US is still the standard bearer for democracy, and individual freedom in the world and has the strongest constitution protecting freedom of speech and religious and individual rights.
No other countries even come close on this.

Hence why everyone want to get into the US.

#71 Andrew Woburn on 02.02.17 at 9:19 pm

The Trumpsters didn’t invent the Border Adjustment Tax even if they probably don’t understand it. The concept is part of a radical overhaul of the US tax system which, at first blush, makes sense to this former tax consultant. Still there is no guarantee that the Donald’s version would make sense. This is a fairly heavy read. Also note that economists think the plan could jack the greenback bigly.

“But Spicer’s freelancing generated confusion about a serious proposal, developed over years, to restructure the US corporate tax system from one that taxes profits to one that taxes domestic consumption. It includes a 20% assessment on imports, but it is not targeted at Mexico, and its purpose is not to penalize trade.
The concept, called “border adjustment,” is a needed counterbalance to other business tax cuts in the plan, which has key backers like House speaker Paul Ryan, House Ways and Means Committee chair Kevin Brady, and Republican tax guru Grover Norquist. But its name and disagreements over how it might affect currency markets has led many to confuse it with the punitive tariffs called for by Trump, who seemed to dismiss this feature of the tax-overhaul plan just prior to taking office.”

https://qz.com/888091/this-is-the-republican-plot-to-kill-the-us-corporate-income-tax-as-we-know-it/

#72 Dirt Dog on 02.02.17 at 9:25 pm

“If you laid them end to end”

Classic…

#73 Where's The Money Guido? on 02.02.17 at 9:25 pm

Re: #4 Musty Basement Dweller on 02.02.17 at 6:25 pm
What is the significance of the purchase by a numbered company? Does that mean it is more difficult to determine the true origin of the money?

None. Who cares? — Garth

But what if this numbered co. is a black op. for the gov’t to inflate the housing market for their nefarious purposes?
Maybe that’s why there’s so many houses without lights on in Vancouver and, with Crusty Clark smiling like a gang banger who just got off a gun charge after being caught red-handed with a trunk full of AR-15s, figures a little tweaking with the Chinese as a scapegoat will fool the fluoride drinkin population into still giving their lives to popcorn huts and the low wages to pay for it.
I wouldn’t put it past them after the selfie rugrat bows to his masters and breaks promises of voter representation just like his cohorts in all parts of the country. All while taking payola right in front of our eyes in the guise of creating biz.
How can one find out who is behind these #’d companies?
Or is that the game, you can’t find out because the bank-gov’t mafia set it up that way.
We’re all gettin skinned alive by these miscreants, be it Site C-Hydro ground and pound in both BC and Ontario, double-taxed home sales in Ontario, inflation that is under-reported, ICBC shock and awe.
All politicos being bought by non residents to do their wishes, just like any banana republic.

#74 Pete from St. Cesaire on 02.02.17 at 9:26 pm

70 AB Boxster: the US is still the standard bearer for democracy, and individual freedom in the world and has the strongest constitution protecting freedom of speech and religious and individual rights. No other countries even come close on this.
—————————————————
A constitution is only as good as the society that enforces it. Here is the modern U.S.A.
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2017/01/paul-craig-roberts/justice-system/

#75 Gregor Samsa on 02.02.17 at 9:27 pm

#24 Brian Ripley

Great charts! The Vancouver chart clearly shows a bubble ready to implode while the Calgary chart shows just how sticky prices can be.

I do think a bloodbath is pending in Calgary condos later this year. They are building condos faster than the city is producing idiots to buy them (a feat in and of itself).

Relinking because I think they deserve it:
http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html
http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

#76 Leo Trollstoy on 02.02.17 at 9:31 pm

People who grew up Van can’t make it in TO. Too casual and soft. Scared of 10 lane highways. Will move back home crying. Only for sharks. Guppies go home.

#77 The Limited Sage on 02.02.17 at 9:40 pm

Sigh…

#78 DT on 02.02.17 at 9:40 pm

Real estate didn’t used to be like this but during the dust bowl in the 30’s Roosevelt created the Farm Credit Act. This started government-sponsored insanity… errr mortgage lending.

That was needed to help farmers facing financial ruin. It should have been a one-time emergency event but they kept it. Prior to that real estate traded as cash, now its levered to the hilt.

But this is only possible due to sovereign backing. You know, your politicians that promise more than they can afford and when tax revenues run short they borrow the rest.

Well governments don’t pay back their debts. And while you can point fingers at the US all you want, at least in the US municipalities can issue debt. That means when municipalities fail they don’t take down the state. In ‘Oh Canada’ municipalities’ debt is guaranteed by the Provinces, so they supposedly can’t go broke.

Of course this is a socialists’ wet dream but unlike the US where a municipal default is contained, here in 49 North it can take the Province down.

Oops.

Anyways, no governments has paid back its debts.

As this is partly a financial planning blog what happens after you borrow like crazy for 50+ years, always rolling the debt forward? What happens to households that do that? Corporations?

Governments have an alternative to check kiting and paying the minimum credit card paymentsfrom the new credit cards they added to the stack.

Governments default when they can’t inflate away anymore, which is the situation in Venezuela now.

So, when the governments can’t borrow anymore and the bond markets implode the supernova will impact derivatives of sovereign debt.

Like REAL ESTATE!!

#79 common sense on 02.02.17 at 9:41 pm

When this thing explodes sky high, how many years before things get back to reality (LOL) again? 12?????

#80 Hotdogs from Heaven on 02.02.17 at 9:49 pm

#74 Pete from St. Cesaire on 02.02.17 at 9:26 pm

70 AB Boxster: the US is still the standard bearer for democracy, and individual freedom in the world and has the strongest constitution protecting freedom of speech and religious and individual rights. No other countries even come close on this.
—————————————————
A constitution is only as good as the society that enforces it. Here is the modern U.S.A.
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2017/01/paul-craig-roberts/justice-system/

===================================

Yeah, but the guys who originally enforced it killed millions of the original 14 million native people who lived there and then owned the slaves that worked it.

We have come a long way from that “enlightened” crew.

#81 Balmuto on 02.02.17 at 9:51 pm

“#70 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 9:10 pm
#51 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 8:20 pm

Why #1
Because America has been a patsy for the world in terms of trade.
as China has become an economic powerhouse at the expense of US jobs. Europe has become a safe and secure trading competitor at the expense of US taxpayers funding military protection.”

Lots of xenophobic griping and absolutely no clarity on how Trump’s policies will actually help the US economy. As expected.

“Why#2

Because an economically strong America drives growth in the worlds economy. Always has and always will.”

With a free and open America, you’re probably right. With an insular, walled-off Trumpland, I doubt it.

#82 Smoking Man on 02.02.17 at 9:53 pm

Hisenburg lives.

I’m unloading Shlong Branch , why. Am I afraid this market will crash. Hell no.

Lefty loons know where I live . Did you see the brown shirts in action at Burkly.

These mental cases are pure evil filled with hate.

Going to Cuba then Equidor. Find my retirement mansion.

Made 80 million off book. Not sharing with socialists. Sorry losers.

I took the risk, they dident, they just want a cut. Mafia is what I’m thinking.

T2 take Shlong Branch it’s well morgaged. My Hisenburg plan. You get a pick up truck with 300k on it. Sorry about the cracked windshield.

#83 Grey Dog on 02.02.17 at 9:53 pm

Anyone who says Toronto is a world class city HAS NOT TRAVELLED THE WORLD. Yes, one can see the world in the population of Toronto, one could eat the best of world cuisine in Toronto, but…I wouldn’t even give it a grade for low end cosmopolitan. Hey, I live in suburbia and can easily get to events in Toronto using “the better way”. Metrolinx gets an F. IN Europe I could easily make great distances by cheap public transport to places of interest. Korea was a cinch to get around the entire country…anyone thinking Olympics next year, don’t hesitate to go, the B&B we stayed in was 25$ and we could have easily eaten off the floor.
Toronto LOST greatest city status the moment those waterfront condos went up one by one by one. We totally lost the harbourfront. Now with those damn jets flying out of centre island, the noise they make. Folks Toronto got sold to the highest bidder hodge podge bit by bit. Not an ounce of charm left. Old buildings with an architectural historical purpose ripped down without permission overnight. A lot of land marks disappear. Get your passport folks and get out and see the world. Mind you…don’t forget to sew that Canadian Flag on your luggage, otherwise they will be convinced your American and you voted for Trump!

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.02.17 at 9:59 pm

@#40 Daveboy
“Moved to North West Arkansas. No house horney people here.”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

No, not house horny…..

Ever seen Deliverance?

#85 just more inflation on 02.02.17 at 10:03 pm

“This is the FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) economy at work. Some think it’s exactly why we’re screwed. Nothing was manufactured. No good produced. No job created. Just more inflation, ”

now… it’s interesting you say that… “just more inflation” … can you explain how this causes more inflation? because with CPI at 1.4%, i’m curious…..

Housing inflation. That post was not about cauliflower. For a change. — Garth

#86 Doug t on 02.02.17 at 10:03 pm

#67

Pffft – pussy hats ? Seriously

#87 Pete from St. Cesaire on 02.02.17 at 10:03 pm

But what if this numbered co. is a black op. for the gov’t to inflate the housing market for their nefarious purposes?
————————————————
Yes, that is what I was thinking. Money is created out of thin air, all thinking people should know that by now. Why wouldn’t the government create more money to buy properties thereby maintaining the appearance of continual price growth to keep the ‘RE party’ going; especially since the ‘RE party’ is the only thing keeping the country afloat. Numbered companies would be an easy way to hide the true ownership.

#88 Smoking Man on 02.02.17 at 10:06 pm

DELETED

#89 Kevinhole Eerie on 02.02.17 at 10:07 pm

Garth – if any of the libtard cockroaches in this comments section think they want to give me a hard time, they should just remember:

Now, I’m packin’ heat!! ;)

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/02/02/kevin-oleary-gun-range-video-goodale_n_14578286.html

#90 Future PM Kevinhole Eerie on 02.02.17 at 10:07 pm

Garth – if any of the libtard cockroaches in this comments section think they want to give me a hard time, they should just remember:

Now, I’m packin’ heat!! ;)

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/02/02/kevin-oleary-gun-range-video-goodale_n_14578286.html

#91 Bytor the Snow Dog on 02.02.17 at 10:15 pm

Now Garth I have to take you task a little bit. Real Estate Agents are people.

Just like Soylent Green.

PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#92 Where's The Money Guido? on 02.02.17 at 10:16 pm

Re:
#53 Smoking Man on 02.02.17 at 8:21 pm
#37 Millennials are good obedient puppets on 02.02.17 at 7:35 pm
Millennials out number boomers but boomers out smart millennials. Hey millennials just don’t buy and let the sellers come to you. All that obedient schooling have left you without thought. Millennials begging to be slaves . Get on your knees and beg to be slaves. http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/couple-in-early-20s-denied-toronto-condo-rental-due-to-their-age-1.3953905#commentwrapper.

……….

An excerpt from my book. As you know the world is ruled by an alien named Shlong Zumanga. This is what he’s been up the 200 years.

“Smokey just look what I’ve done in the western world. I’m worth
five hundred trillion dollars. I own and control all of the
mainstream media, every politician, central banks in every country.

Smokey, i always thought that a picture of Jacob Rothschild, from the veterans today website about the khazarian mafia that supposedly owns EVERYTHING looked like an alien should look.

#93 Joseph R. on 02.02.17 at 10:29 pm

#69 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 02.02.17 at 9:09 pm
” “It was placed on the market a few weeks ago at $999,888 and just sold for $1,200,000.. Looking at the pictures, absolutely no work was done and seven months later it sells for a 25% premium?”

It’s called mortgage fraud.

————————————————–

No.

“Mortgage fraud occurs when someone deliberately misrepresents information to obtain mortgage financing that would not have been granted if the truth had been known.”

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/co/buho/plmayomo/plmayomo_004.cfm

Canada has laws regarding investment and securities fraud :

http://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/scams-fraudes/inv-fra-eng.htm

They deal with “pump and dump” penny stocks schemes or insider trading. Nothing about Real estate.

#94 Mr Credibility on 02.02.17 at 10:50 pm

Mr Credibility says they are paying for the land, not the house structure. But we all know that. They’re not making anymore land in the 416.

#95 Tim on 02.02.17 at 10:51 pm

>There are more than 110,000 realtors. If you laid them all end-to-end, it would be a good start.

Great turn of phrase!

#96 Mr Credibility on 02.02.17 at 10:52 pm

Mr Credibility says going forward they are going to have to tax all financial transactions on the markets. Aging demographics means homeowners will not allow their houses to become tax ATMs. Stock markets etc will be the new ATMs.

#97 Nonplused on 02.02.17 at 10:55 pm

“HST on commissions and fees. — Garth

Ok thanks for clarifying, that would be a lot less. However it still seems like they have a tax whether you are coming or going. Probably can’t get home without taking a toll road either.

#98 Metaxa on 02.02.17 at 11:11 pm

People…you all may be very aware of everything millennial, real estate, ETF and balanced and diversified but your business acumen is lacking.

I’ve posted before about carrying a registered company around with you and while knowing nothing about the medical corps I do know this: you incorporate as a numbered company but you do business as whatever you want.

123BC Ltd DBA Mom’s Fine Doughnuts and Driveway Clearing.
Real benefit to you in a number of aspects, some of which have been touched on upstream. Take professional advice, pay your yearly fees and profit.

One last thought:
I have written here of my firmly held feeling that the Conservative Party of Canada will not be able to form government for some considerable time.

To bolster that, ponder this….during this period of time when the victims of a right wing extremist’s murder spree are being buried one of the so-called front runners for the leadership of the CPC sees fit to post a video of himself shooting a machine gun.

80% of Canadians see that as “not in my country” type stuff…how long did the Canadian electorate keep the Liberals out in the wasteland? Get used to it.

Forget the barbaric practices hotline, set up a CPC candidate being a twit hotline instead.

Tell me I’m wrong…go ahead, I double dog dare you.
But show your work.

#99 IHCTD9 on 02.02.17 at 11:23 pm

#66 Victor V on 02.02.17 at 8:54 pm
http://stephaniefusco.com/2017/02/what-its-like-to-house-hunt-in-toronto/

It’s December 2013: Newly engaged, armed with a realistic set of demands, good down payment, a real estate agent and help from our families. We’re about to dip our toe into the Toronto real estate market. Bright-eyed, bushy-tailed, full of optimism, we’re convinced that we’ll buoyantly announce an impending house closing at Christmas.

It’s now January 2017. Nearly 2-years married, budget doubled, morale destroyed. Hundreds of houses seen, multiple offers signed, delivered and returned. Heartfelt letters written to sellers who couldn’t care less that we don’t plan to flip or knock down their house. That we’d like to fill it with laughing, playing children. That we’d like to care for it like they did.
———

Is this your typical GTA house hunter? Emotionally consumed, wondering aloud how they will ever buy a house, willing to beg, borrow, and risk it all? Well, then the GTA RE market is Vegas, and everyone in it is drunk on liquor and stoned on drugs.

You two need to decide if owning a home in the GTA is worth all that, simple. No more dreaming, time to snap out of it. If it is, warm up those dice and get ready to sweat like you’ve never done before. If not, rent or pack on out of there. Do not buy a condo!

#100 westcdn on 02.02.17 at 11:29 pm

There is nothing inherently wrong with owning real estate. Sure you can buy at the bottom and sell at the top or like most traders, you buy high and sell higher. That is only one side of the coin. I don’t like real estate because of it high transaction costs but accommodation is a need. Count your blessings if you score a quick appreciation. In my life, it takes about 10 years for a real estate investment to pan out. If it is faster, something is wrong or I am a genius – ha.

I don’t set prices, the world does and I accept or look at alternatives. I have trampled by the herd so maybe I am a broken clock that is only right twice a day for an instant. If true, I need to get better at milking that instant – at least it is consistent. There is something sinister about the government wanting taxpayers to disclose the value of primary real estate dispositions. I suspect that the capital gains exemption for primary residential dispositions is under review as it should be. This alone would chill the real estate market. On the bright side, it should allow you to claim capital losses should you have such an income stream. Taxing all real estate dispositions would solve a lot of problems for the revenuers.

I love history. As Mark Twain said “history may not repeat itself but it certainly rhymes”. Betting against the herd has rewards. Say, what is this PC term “passed”? What is wrong with saying someone died? It is like someone has moved to a different level of existence. Are we hardwired to be subjected to religion by a bunch of “elites”? Ought oh, I hear the herd approaching.

#101 IHCTD9 on 02.02.17 at 11:36 pm

#97 Metaxa on 02.02.17 at 11:11 pm
—–

I’m inclined to think the next Federal election in Canada will be decided by Donald Trump.

Don’t knee jerk. Think about it for a bit.

75%+ of everything we export goes to the USA…

#102 Cloudy on 02.02.17 at 11:41 pm

Incorporating must be different in other provinces. When I set up my limited company in BC it took a week, a very simple form and maybe $50 or so if I remember right to ensure your desired company name wasn’t in use and to hold it for you to incorporate. Incorporating was easy and fairly inexpensive. You can even adopt a basic set of Notice of Articles if you don’t want a fancy share structure.

#103 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 02.03.17 at 12:19 am

President Donald J. Trump is working hard to bring back to America the manufacturing jobs that went to China, the Internet technology jobs that went to India, and the automotive assembly jobs that went to Mexico. After working hard all his own life, and loving it, Donald Trump would like others to share in the American dream as well. Donald Trump knows all about the power of positive thinking, and how to get things done.

Sadly, President Trump is encountering a lot of perverse resistance to his many planned good deeds. Many other people were unsuccessful in life and never amounted to anything good at all, but rather ended up becoming economists, psychologists, politicians, mainstream media bums, and other riffraff. As such abject failures themselves, they ought to watch and learn from The Donald how to do things right. But their minds are permanently bent out of shape. All these negative, discouraging, shakedown artists can ever do is talk about why it is not possible for anyone to ever do anything positive, and why no problem can ever be fixed, and why nothing can ever be accomplished. They bring together and use their own lengthy, multi-disciplinary record of ineffectiveness and total failure to try to discourage everyone else.

This is why President Trump has the billions of dollars, the nice skyscrapers, the fancy cars, and the beautiful women, while his critics have nothing but their own bitterness to wallow in.

#104 AB Boxster on 02.03.17 at 12:42 am

#81 Balmuto on 02.02.17 at 9:51 pm

Lots of xenophobic griping and absolutely no clarity on how Trump’s policies will actually help the US economy. As expected.
—————————————————–
Your response is the product of a lazy mind with no ability to argue or reason, and typical left wing foolishness.

The left (and you obviously) throw around labels because you have no intelligent comment or argument to make.
That China has done well at the US workers expense.. good for China.
Even Trump has said this.
Shame on the US.

I can dislike the fact that real estate in Canada has been influenced by foreign money, without hating the foreigner.
Good for the foreigner for doing what is best for them.
Shame on Canada and it’s politicians for allowing them to do so.

Because you cannot make intelligent comment, you resort to the left’s old standards. Those who must support their country must be fascist or xenophobic, because to support your own country, must, in your mind, mean one hates the rest of the world.

The left has been throwing around its sad terms for so long now (xenophobic, misogynistic, racist, fascist, homophobic) as a way to shut down debate because they are unwilling or unable to debate the issues.

It doesn’t work anymore, but the left continues to try, making themselves look more and more ridiculous.

As expected.

#105 Spock on 02.03.17 at 12:53 am

#15

– BCE increases dividend 5.1%
– Brookfield Property Partners increases dividend 5%

Rub tummy

——————–

Brookfield Renewable Partners increased dividend by 5% on Jan 2.

Unless you know the future –> Brookfield Property Partners reports tomorrow (Feb 3) – hopefully they also increase the distributions

here is a better one:

Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP.UN) increased distributions by 11%

#106 That was Excellent on 02.03.17 at 1:12 am

Excellent write-up, simple, yet elegant. The Finance Minister in you writes with a vengeance the common man can easily understand.

Investment money that could have been put to better use, instead, frittered away on Services and funded by colossal debt with the end result of, nothing.

Wonderful.

#107 Cdn Mom on 02.03.17 at 1:18 am

This continual real estate talk made me do some back of the napkin calculations. All numbers are from Stats Can.

Canada population 2016. 36,286,400

250,407 deaths per year 2013

Births per year 2015/6 392,902

immigration permanent resident 2015/2016 320,932

total annual population increase of 463,427 after subtracting deaths

births-deaths= 142,495 more bedrooms for new kids (or a minimum of 71,247 2 bedroom units or houses). Let’s be generous, and say half already have adequate housing for offspring, no need to buy, but 35,623 kids do need parents to come up with more bedrooms.

immigrants, say 4 per family … 80,233 more 2 or 3 bedroom units or houses (ignoring the existence of singles and couples with no kids)

total of 115,856 “new” 2 or 3 bedroom units or houses each year, after having subtracted deaths, but not accounting for ANY temporary resident immigrants

over 5 years, 579,282 “new” 2 or 3 bedroom units or houses needed

over 10 years, 1,158,565 “new” 2 or 3 bedroom units or houses needed unless death rate rises huge

Given that the nursing homes are full to the brim, with waiting lists, we know most don’t leave their home (and put it on the market) for a nursing home unless some dies. So the number of units becoming available for sale or rent that are not new builds, without looking for a replacement, cannot exceed the number of deaths per year. Yeah, a few will move to family, but not a ton.

I see demand only increasing. The more governments and corporate interests try to shove us into the most populated areas, the worse that demand will be, as we exit less densely populated areas of the country.

Toronto better build 5 more freeways (never mind get their tolls back), Van is a lost cause in that department.

Clearly the goverments better start planning their little butts off. Decentralization might be a good start.

#108 Chelsea on 02.03.17 at 1:37 am

#90 Well we will know what to do when food is scarce…. RE will be the news of the past.

Soylent Green

#109 Example from Victoria on 02.03.17 at 1:54 am

Saanich, BC to be exact:
House sold Jun 2016: $698,500
Interior upgrades and was listed 5 months later in Nov 2016: $900,000
Sold within about few weeks for over asking for $940,000.
Metal roof went on recently indicates ‘sheltering the investment’

#110 For those about to flop... on 02.03.17 at 1:59 am

Pink Snow falling in Surrey.

These guys paid 955k last year and after trying to turn a profit are sinking in the quicksand…

M42BC

1308 Stevens Street, Surrey

Dec 1:$1,099,000
Feb 2: $1,049,000
Change: – 50000.00 -5%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA3NU42OA==

#111 Euro observer on 02.03.17 at 2:41 am

Don’t worry.

Once the CMHC induced bubble pops they will come for your taxes, your doctors taxes, your dental benefits (HST) to pay for the fallout, nobody will tax the windfall profit on the sale of primary residence.

Yes, the FIRE fueled by government agency stupidity and criminal irresponsibility is the reason for inflation with zero economic activity, this is why economy sucks and will such more tomorrow due to huge malinvestments in the wrong sector at the wrong time and despite the example/early warning from what we saw in US 9 years ago.

In the circumstances one can reasonably conclude that we are either ruled by idiots or by corrupted politicians and the whole thingy with the housing bubble is by intend, for the profit of the lenders, at the expense and detriment of the public. This is why the PM needs more debt slaves to pay the bill.

This is why we are facing economic depressions, no jobs fro our kids and no retirement.

This is why is better to pay one;s taxes somewhere else.

#112 Euro observer on 02.03.17 at 2:54 am

Calculation of HST in some cases is a government enforced scam.

When selling an old car government has calculated tax value based on make, model, year and calculates HST based on that value.

Even if you really sell the car for much less, they charge you HST on the deemed value, unless you prove with appraiser (at your expense) that your car is worth less. That does not mean you sold it for less though. Total disregard of markets (what a surprise!). They want ‘their’ money.

So you are deemed guilty/cheater by default and it is up to you to prove at your expense that you are not.

Considering this I would expect similar approach to the land transfer tax and HST on house sales. No? Why not?

Appraise all houses at 10 mil, tax them at 10 mil, this is how you get your revenue!

#113 Dan.t on 02.03.17 at 3:26 am

#10 Mike
Yes it seems Canadians are all millionaires. CIBC tell us daily “we are richer than we think”- come on in and binge on some home made debt! Yummy taste great.

Canada has been at the feeding trough, gorging on debt for years and seem to have no aversion to it at all-

Your right, does’t matter because Canadians are super rich.

#114 Euro observer on 02.03.17 at 6:02 am

#92 Joseph R. on 02.02.17 at 10:29 pm
#69 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 02.02.17 at 9:09 pm
” “It was placed on the market a few weeks ago at $999,888 and just sold for $1,200,000.. Looking at the pictures, absolutely no work was done and seven months later it sells for a 25% premium?”

It’s called mortgage fraud.

————————————————–

No.

“Mortgage fraud occurs when someone deliberately misrepresents information to obtain mortgage financing that would not have been granted if the truth had been known.”

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/co/buho/plmayomo/plmayomo_004.cfm

Canada has laws regarding investment and securities fraud :

http://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/scams-fraudes/inv-fra-eng.htm

They deal with “pump and dump” penny stocks schemes or insider trading. Nothing about Real estate.

—————————-

No laws against mortgage fraud, unless the lender sues you. But wait, the lender is not on the hook for the loans, CMHC is.

So the fraud really is CMHC. legalized fraud and scam.

They ‘insure’ mortgages without a risk model (the risk models should be made public, they are a public institution) houses are not appraised by them, how the f..k do they calculate and price risk?

#115 Dan.T on 02.03.17 at 7:11 am

#10 Mike
Yes it seems Canadians are all millionaires. Banks tell us daily “we are richer than we think”- come on in and binge on some home made debt! Yummy taste great.

Canada has been at the feeding trough, gorging on debt for years and seem to have no aversion to it at all-

Your right, does’t matter because Canadians are super rich.

#116 CTO on 02.03.17 at 7:59 am

#19 I’m NOT Poloz

“Fact: When you educate a girl, you empower the world, but increasing interest rates only make it harder for women in Toronto to pay their mortgages and student loans. ”

It is only the under-18 crowd who will be the first generation in Ontario to receive “free tuition”. We should cut interest rates to lower the interest charges on Ontario’s debt because we absolutely cannot make it impossible to empower our women in Toronto.”””

WOW!
That was comical!
The amazing things that a University education can do for a person astounds me!

#117 Trumpocalypse2017 on 02.03.17 at 8:05 am

You can’t have another massive depression leading to global war without getting rid of sensible regulation.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-moves-to-undo-dodd-frank-law-1486101602

Trump is checking that one off this morning.

Sad. And stupid.

Few will survive what is coming.

(*and that’s before even considering Iran and China)

#118 IHCTD9 on 02.03.17 at 8:26 am

#111 Euro observer on 02.03.17 at 2:54 am
______________________________________

Government should not be taxing used cars in the first place. When I was a lot younger, I bought an old beat Mustang that turned out to have been owned by 12 people before me. Only two were dealers, including the original Ford dealership, so government collected tax on that car 12 times.

There was some retribution though, I parted it out for cash, then scrapped it for cash. I suppose there is probably a law somewhere that says I have to declare that money as “income” and – you guessed it – pay tax.

Maybe there are parts and pcs of that old car still floating around and still requiring taxes to be paid in some fashion.

#119 maxx on 02.03.17 at 8:33 am

#22 Entrepreneur on 02.02.17 at 6:55 pm

“It is so sad that we have come to this level of thinking, playing with emotions for a sale, money.”

It’s not “so sad”, it’s borderline criminal- and I’m not referring to realtards (they’ll just ride the magic carpet as long as they can) so much as our “leaders” who turn a blind eye to the long-term damage which promoting and protecting this industry causes the economy at large. The fools on the hill and elsewhere have painted Canada into a nice, neat little corner.

Bull$hiteous, misleading re stats, manipulative realtard behaviour bordering on coercion and “protect FIRE at any cost legislation” have brought us to where we are.

Sad my ar$e. Canada deserves what it’s got. A sludgy, middling, indolent economy that is going nowhere, underpinned by a largely ignorant population gorging itself on the gospel of MSM headlines.

What’s sad is that our country is draped in a mantle of stupidity.

#120 Tater on 02.03.17 at 8:35 am

Oooof, that’s just around the corner from my old place. Sold in spring of 2016. Seems I was a bit early…

#121 IHCTD9 on 02.03.17 at 8:41 am

#110 Euro observer on 02.03.17 at 2:41 am
Don’t worry.

Once the CMHC induced bubble pops they will come for your taxes, your doctors taxes, your dental benefits (HST) to pay for the fallout…

…This is why is better to pay one;s taxes somewhere else.
____________________________________________

True, and already happening. But this scheme will succeed only with those who did not have eyes to see or ears to hear what was rolling down on them.

I’ll be one of the very few, but measures commenced last year to offset new taxes by modified spending, and modified energy use. Efforts will carry on this year, and most changes will be in effect before the next Ontario election.

The future of taxation in Canada will be on the things 99% of folks can’t say no to. Urban city dwellers will be hammered good, as folks living on 20′ lots and on the 13th floor don’t have any realizable options given their living conditions.

Government revenues will be on a downward trajectory for a while, Oil and commodities will stay down, manufacturing will shrink more, FIRE and residential construction will not save the day for too much longer, wages will keep going sideways, good FT high paying jobs will keep disappearing, the cost of living on every front will inflate, taxes and fees are set to become abusive.

#122 Centre Wing on 02.03.17 at 8:48 am

I don’t know what to do. Living in small town Ontario, a good 2 hours out of Toronto (and 1 hour from downtown Hamilton), housing prices have always been a different world here. But the insanity is spreading even to us. Five years ago, we bought a nice 3BR 2BA, 1600sq ft (+ partial basement) SFH for $259k. We’re looking to upsize (need another bedroom) and the prices have ballooned. I’m tempted to look at what an addition would cost. In a similar neighbourhood to ours, there is a 2BR 1BA with less square footage listed at $309. Renting is not an option. I’ve already worked the numbers on that. Do I sell ours at an inflated price and then buy at an inflated price? Or look at additions?

#123 Wack on 02.03.17 at 8:51 am

“YVR home sales and prices drop in Jan”
This is a good thing, yes?

#124 Tater on 02.03.17 at 8:57 am

#93 Mr Credibility on 02.02.17 at 10:50 pm
Mr Credibility says they are paying for the land, not the house structure. But we all know that. They’re not making anymore land in the 416.
—————————————————————-
Having lived around the corner from that place, buying for that land is pretty dumb. There’s a ton of bungalows on 50×100 lots that would be 3-400k cheaper to buy in those streets.

#125 Chico on 02.03.17 at 8:57 am

#103 AB Boxster on 02.03.17 at 12:42 am

#81 Balmuto on 02.02.17 at 9:51 pm

Lots of xenophobic griping and absolutely no clarity on how Trump’s policies will actually help the US economy. As expected.
—————————————————–
Your response is the product of a lazy mind with no ability to argue or reason, and typical left wing foolishness.

The left (and you obviously) throw around labels because you have no intelligent comment or argument to make.
That China has done well at the US workers expense.. good for China.
Even Trump has said this.
Shame on the US.

I can dislike the fact that real estate in Canada has been influenced by foreign money, without hating the foreigner.
Good for the foreigner for doing what is best for them.
Shame on Canada and it’s politicians for allowing them to do so.

Because you cannot make intelligent comment, you resort to the left’s old standards. Those who must support their country must be fascist or xenophobic, because to support your own country, must, in your mind, mean one hates the rest of the world.

The left has been throwing around its sad terms for so long now (xenophobic, misogynistic, racist, fascist, homophobic) as a way to shut down debate because they are unwilling or unable to debate the issues.

It doesn’t work anymore, but the left continues to try, making themselves look more and more ridiculous.

As expected.

__ __

Well said. My only addition would be related to the whole left wing/right wing argument. On issues around men vs. women, parents vs. children, boomers vs. millennials, etc., we have this lazy uneducated blabber that has people blaming “children today” or “women” or “boomers” without nary a thought, just shooting off their mouth because it’s the internet and they’re anonymous. If people spoke so carelessly in a public setting they would most often be ignored, so they would be more likely to censure what they say.

Are these really right or left wing behaviors? How about the right wing windbags on this blog who blame women for the fact they can’t bond successfully with them? How likely is it that they’ve never even cracked a book on the subject of “how to relate effectively with a woman?” They remain ignorant, blame someone else, in this case, women, and rarely if ever have any “facts” to back up their position.

As a male who started reading books on relationships in my mid 30’s, I was shocked and upset at how little I knew about the subject. I was also angry that no one taught me this stuff. My anger made me determined to not be stupid anymore. The anger of these ignorant people you mention continues to be directed at everyone but themselves.

Sadly, I don’t find “right wingers” to be any more self effacing that the lefties, just look at the crap spouted on this blog.

#126 Euro observer on 02.03.17 at 9:00 am

I thought this was worth posting:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/one-in-12-older-canadians-skip-prescriptions-due-to-cost-134433017.html

One in 12 Canadians over the age of 55 are avoiding filling prescriptions because they can’t afford to, according to new research out of the University of British Columbia.

Canada is also the only developed country with a universal health program that lacks prescription drug coverage.

#127 Samantha on 02.03.17 at 9:08 am

Hard to argue with the numbers – sales up, new listings down, and average sales price GTA gains of 20%+ YoY:

http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news2017/nr_market_watch_0117.htm

This looks like a classic blow-off stage of a bubble that is long overdue to burst. Probably March or April will mark the top of this, and yes I agree with many posters here, that foreign money is driving this market for the last few years…

#128 Lovely BC on 02.03.17 at 9:39 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/foreign-investors-avoid-taxes-by-buying-real-estate-in-canada/article26683767/

#129 fixie guy on 02.03.17 at 9:42 am

“This is the FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) economy at work. Some think it’s exactly why we’re screwed. Nothing was manufactured.”

Nice analysis but it misses the most important element, the reason the federal government keeps this going. Mortgage services make out like bandits every time this property flips and sustains an illusion of Canada’s rock-solid-banking-miracle. That all the costs and risks fall on the backs of young families is a ball for future governments to juggle.

#130 garg a rella on 02.03.17 at 9:54 am

I’ve seen the agent, Monica Thapar, list and sell multiple homes in this ’16 Parmalea’ neighbourhood. An interesting fact, she was selling a house on 26 Brooktree Crescent. When I went for an open house, I was informed it was already sold. I was getting ready to leave in frustration when she told me she had a new listing owned by a relative coming up for sale in a week. Lo and behold, it was 16 Parmalea. I didn’t have an agent, so she said, no problems, she would look after that. That is known a double-ending. I’m wondering if she drove the bids up on this house.

#131 Doug in London on 02.03.17 at 9:57 am

@I’m Stupid, post #21:
Maybe you’re not so stupid after all, what you described has happened before, in 1990. The market was slowing down and a lot of people were unwittingly caught with 2 mortgages and trying to sell their house after they bought a new one. Yes, 1990, I remember it well. The time tunnel is pulling me in again, is the Dome Mine in South Porcupine (east Timmins) still on strike? I hear a brand new tune on CKGB Timmins called Blue Sky Mine by Midnight Oil, from Australia. “But if I work all day on the blue sky mine, there’ll be food on the table tonight. Still I walk up and down on the blue sky mine, there’ll be pay in your pocket tonight” and so on.

#132 Leo Trollstoy on 02.03.17 at 9:58 am

Toronto real estate is carrying Canadian real estate. Toronto realtors work in a competitive environment now. Those I know who are young and hussle are doing well. The lazy sell one house a year. As it should be.

Know one Realtor making a killing in Markham. Helps he sold real estate in HK before going there. Enough business to go around he says. Actually too much. But sharks hand extra overflow business to other sharks. Reputation depends on it.

#133 crossbordershopper on 02.03.17 at 10:10 am

so happy i dont own anything, or want to own anything, then again i dont have $1.2 million let alone maybe $1200 i could scrap together. So. millions, and millions of canadians are like me, the title is correct, money for nothing, not big money like some, but enough for millions like me, who every 20th for child tax and the end of the month for the government cheque, live on, and we think we live very well. drive on same streets, go to same hospital, kids go to same school, same grocery store etc etc, have all the goverment services like you all. but we pay no tax and yes get money for free. we may not play real estate games, but hey we spend more time with family and friends and watching superbowl this weekend eating chicken wings.
its not stressfull being poor, trust me on that. either you own your money or your money owns you. stay poor, retire poor, go to cuba and relax. till the day you die. Thanks Mr. Trudeau. and Galen Weston of course for his wonderfull specials this week. fresh chicken breasts $2.97 lb.

#134 InvestorsFriend on 02.03.17 at 10:21 am

Trump / U.S. Nationalism and Racism

U.S. launched raid on terrorist group in Yemen.

News coverage (Fox news) laments loss of the one U.S. soldier. Some 14 terrorists killed. They mention but show no concern at all for 23 (presumably innocent) civilians killed. If this is not deep racism and nationalism as thinly veiled racism, I don’t know what is. Americans first indeed.

#135 Victor V on 02.03.17 at 10:23 am

Toronto faces ‘serious’ housing crunch as prices soar 22% and supply drops by half

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/toronto-faces-serious-housing-crunch-as-prices-soar-22-and-supply-drops-by-half

#136 Reply to #124 on 02.03.17 at 10:29 am

That was two minutes of my life that I will never get back.

#137 Kim on 02.03.17 at 10:37 am

#121 Centre Wing on 02.03.17 at 8:48 am
I don’t know what to do. Living in small town Ontario, a good 2 hours out of Toronto (and 1 hour from downtown Hamilton), housing prices have always been a different world here. But the insanity is spreading even to us. Five years ago, we bought a nice 3BR 2BA, 1600sq ft (+ partial basement) SFH for $259k. We’re looking to upsize (need another bedroom) and the prices have ballooned. I’m tempted to look at what an addition would cost. In a similar neighbourhood to ours, there is a 2BR 1BA with less square footage listed at $309. Renting is not an option. I’ve already worked the numbers on that. Do I sell ours at an inflated price and then buy at an inflated price? Or look at additions?

——-

That’s why this buy now or be priced out forever thing is a scam. Case in point. You buy a house worth 1m. Your dream house is at 2m but you want to get in the market, so to speak. A 10% rise meansyour house is worth 1.1m but that dream house is now 2.2m. So let’s say you paid off your mortgage, you now have a 1.1m downpayment. (Excluding fees of course because that’s how real estate bulls calculate their “gains”). You now need to borrow even more money (1.1m) which with your salary (that hasn’t gone up much) you more or less can’t afford. And that’s with low rates that are not moving. And that’s minus transaction costs. The real way to build wealth is through stocks and not to dump all of your money in one asset. As a civil servant in our mid and early 30s my wife and I can buy a 2.4 million dollar house with CASH but we choose not to because that would just be stupid.

#138 fancy_pants on 02.03.17 at 10:58 am

Fact of the matter is the prediction on RE doom has been very wrong. In KW, stuff is going for way over asking, 10-15 bids is not uncommon! Stuff is going for way over asking! And it’s not greater fools Garth, it is basic supply and demand.

Example of how hot RE has gotten in KW. We sold a 3 bedroom raised bungalow in summer of 2015 for $350k as we bought a larger house. That house now would guarantee fetch $100k more 20 months later!!! The 14 years since we first bought it, it went up $175k. Stuff cuaght fire here the last year and a half. Especially the middle of the road houses.

kicking myself for selling it. I should have been like my extended neighbour who kept his other house and rented it. I expect another 20% increases this year but baerly have the balls to get in now. The circus won’t stop here in KW until rates go up. The ring of fire from the GTA just keeps extending out. There is just too much demand. I expected a crash years ago. just never enfolded.

When the hell is this going to settle down? Don’t count on rate hikes to assist your predictions (if you still hang onto them).

For all those on the sidelines for the last decade, you are the real greater fools here.

Naive comment. Rapid price escalations pose significant risk, as values eventually return to the mean. Attitudes like yours – buy now or buy never – have been proven many times to be invalid and alarmist. Buy real estate and assume huge debt only when it makes sense given your financial circumstances. A house is not a financial strategy, a retirement strategy or even wise for many people. Get a grip. — Garth

#139 AfterTheHouseSold on 02.03.17 at 11:03 am

#121 Centre Wing
“Do I sell ours at an inflated price and then buy at an inflated price? Or look at additions?

Or look at bunk beds? Or look at moving out of the master bedroom and having the kids double/triple up in the bigger space? You don’t say why you need the extra bedroom, but maybe all you need is fresh eyes on your existing space. Don’t forget, a bigger house or addition comes with bigger taxes, heating bill, and an outlay of money which could otherwise be invested. :)

#140 YYC $$$ on 02.03.17 at 11:12 am

Brian Ripley may have some of the worst data visualization skills I have ever seen. Spare us Brian. When the size of bars don’t represent the value next to them, you’re doing it wrong.

#141 Pre-retiree on 02.03.17 at 11:15 am

Some dispute TREB numbers. I guess I am not the only one…..
https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/02/02/toronto-foreign-home-buyer-numbers-dont-add-up-say-critics.html

All you need to know: “Ipsos vice-president Sean Simpson isn’t entirely surprised that his TREB poll findings are being questioned. He cites an unrelated Ipsos study that tested the accuracy of Canadians’ perceptions of their country. It showed Canadians believed 24 per cent of the population is Muslim. In reality, it is 3 per cent.” — Garth

#142 bcpaul on 02.03.17 at 11:19 am

I see this over and over around here in BC. Houses get bought, then a few months later are right back on the market at a higher price. Rinse and repeat.

Best ponzi scheme ever.

#143 chopstix on 02.03.17 at 11:19 am

”’the future of bc housing report”
http://resonanceco.com/reports/future-of-bc-housing/?utm_source=Resonance+Master&utm_campaign=0805d98188-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_01_12&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0ca78f831c-0805d98188-1204836245&mc_cid=0805d98188&mc_eid=d43ffbed71

#144 Doug in London on 02.03.17 at 11:25 am

@Kim, post #135;
Good to see there are some wise people here.

#145 Tater on 02.03.17 at 11:51 am

As a civil servant in our mid and early 30s my wife and I can buy a 2.4 million dollar house with CASH but we choose not to because that would just be stupid.
—————————————————————-
That is some savings discipline. By my rough calcs, that requires putting 100k a year away and earning 15% per year, for a decade. Well done.

#146 TrumpForTheAges on 02.03.17 at 11:59 am

These days it is hard to know what the true reality is…but I know there are a lot of bloggers here who believe that the US dollar will retain its hegemonic status. A minority believe otherwise but thought that this article was interesting? It certainly provides an alternative view of the inter-connectedness of the global economy and perhaps Trump is operating on an old paradigm that will not service the future? Certainly for anyone who analyzes the markets, there are insights to be gleaned from the forex market and how specific pairs suggest whether risk is on or off. Based upon this article there are certainly some implications to that.

http://www.thedailyeconomist.com/2017/02/long-time-us-vassal-state-japan-to.html

#147 Jeff on 02.03.17 at 12:01 pm

Our economy is on FIRE. Very well explained Garth.

#148 Victor V on 02.03.17 at 12:17 pm

As Toronto real estate prices climb relentlessly skyward, some house hunters are pooling their resources to buy property together. Inside the sometimes fun, sometimes fractious, inherently complicated world of co-ownership

http://torontolife.com/real-estate/houses/inside-complicated-world-home-co-ownership/

#149 Money for nothing - MASHDEX on 02.03.17 at 12:17 pm

[…] Read more here:: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/02/02/money-for-nothing-3/ […]

#150 fancy_pants on 02.03.17 at 12:25 pm

Well, I certainly don’t have a buy now or buy never attitude. I live so far within my means I would bore a group of grandmothers at Friday night Bingo.

Doesn’t negate the fact that prices in Kitchener/Waterloo are climbing at a ridiculous pace, especially the last year and a half. Reporting ground facts from a specific area. BTW, when RE collapses, so does your stock market. They are both jacked and bloated full of funny money.

Nope. There is no direct correlation between house horny people in KW and the TSX. — Garth

#151 For those about to flop... on 02.03.17 at 12:26 pm

Triple flip in Surrey.

This block of land in Surrey is attempting to be flipped for the third time in less than a year.Slowly working its way up the ladder.

March 2016…480k

June 2016…560k

Feb2017…?

It’s a racket…

M42BC

14948 72nd Ave Surrey

Jan 11:$669,000
Feb 2: $649,000
Change: – 20,000

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDA0TjFMWg==

#152 TurnerNation on 02.03.17 at 12:29 pm

This is sick. Kanadians are way too passive agressive to live with.

http://torontolife.com/real-estate/houses/inside-complicated-world-home-co-ownership/

#153 jess on 02.03.17 at 12:42 pm

facilitators?

International Business Company (IBC’s)
check out the graph

01 Feb Banks & crime: New insights into the offshore world
In October 2016, Andreas Frank, an expert on money laundering and ex Goldman Sachs banker, visited the Bahamas to take a look behind the scenes of the offshore world. Mr Frank was kind enough to share his field report with us, which you can scroll through below and download here. Mr Frank has also provided us with a graph illustrating his findings

http://guengl-panamapapers.eu/new-insights-into-the-offshore-world/

#154 Dogman01 on 02.03.17 at 12:45 pm

#70 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 9:10 pm

Good analysis; nice to see that clarity of perpective is still out there.

#155 soost on 02.03.17 at 12:55 pm

Ipsos as commissioned by TREB.

TREB who gives us month-to-month or year-over-year stats as it suits upward market projections and fits their narrative. Who changes its sampling methods on a whim.

The Ipsos numbers may be right and they may be wrong – but its okay to question their authenticity. Garth questions the projections of biased brokerages every day.

We also have to remember that foreign PARTICIPATION in the market, and bidding wars, could contribute to current pricing. That would make us domestic idiots for rising to the occasion. This would not reflect in the statistics on completed sales.

As long as a foreign buyer tax is the match that gets the kindling going, I personally don’t care whether its grounded in a solid ounce of reason.

#156 For those about to flop... on 02.03.17 at 12:57 pm

I put this one up the other day out of my Pink Snow folder but I will show it again as an example of what can happen when the music stops after several quick flips.

Feb 2015…1.97m

Dec 2015…2.72m

So as you can see by these numbers someone made a nice 750k or so gain in a short amount of time, and now the guys below are still shooting for the stars ,but are likely to crash into the moon as they paid 2.72 for a knockdown in a so- so part of town.

5626Elizabeth Street, Vancouver

Nov 18:$3,588,000
Jan 27: $3,199,000
Change: – 389000.00 -11%
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMTdZVA==

#157 Balmuto on 02.03.17 at 12:59 pm

#103 AB Boxster on 02.03.17 at 12:42 am
“The left (and you obviously) throw around labels because you have no intelligent comment or argument to make.
That China has done well at the US workers expense.. good for China.
Even Trump has said this.
Shame on the US.”

Actually the left shares many of Trump’s views when it comes to protectionist trade policies. Bernie Sanders, for instance, made similar criticisms about companies “sending jobs” to Mexico and China, and of course he made “No TPP” a centerpiece of his campaign. I’m for free markets so I reject Sanders’ views when it comes to trade. “Fair trade” is generally just a euphemism for protectionism in my view.

But whether there is a legit argument for “fair trade” or not, there is nothing fair in the way Trump has conducted himself so far. His disgraceful treatment of Mexico, for example, wasn’t about fair trade. It was all about vindictiveness and bullying. It was a poor negotiation tactic at best and at worst, the opening salvo in a trade war that will just damage the economies of both countries in the end.

#158 Victor V on 02.03.17 at 1:05 pm

Rex Murphy: There are fascists on campus. Protesters don’t realize it’s them, not Milo Yiannopoulos

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/rex-murphy-there-are-fascists-on-campus-protesters-dont-realize-its-them-not-milo-yiannopoulos

#159 Euro observer on 02.03.17 at 1:09 pm

#137 fancy_pants on 02.03.17 at 10:58 am

Yes, the predictions on real estate prices in GTA/Canada have been very wrong… so far.

I personally was convinced that real estate in Toronto/GTA was too expensive when compared to income even in … year 2000, after comparing with much cheaper fantastic homes in the states at that time, for example in Minneapolis/St Paul.

130-150 k a piece for fantastic house that grew to 220 k at the height of their bubble. Compared to shacks at 300 k in GTA/Toronto at that time. 1.3-1.4 mil today.

I am also convinced that we were due to 30-50 % correction in 2009 at the peak at that time (at half current levels) the prices plunged at least 15 % before CMHC started to ‘insure’ 0 down 40 years mortgages.

Now we might have miscalculated the idiocy of the people in charge of economy, CMHC and BOC here, but the ability of a country to prosper when run by idiots i limited.

Reverse to the mean in current conditions and based on current income is the equivalent of 70 % + reduction from current prices in GTA and Vancouver.
Reduction to 25-30 % of the current prices.

It is likely, is is possible and will happen one way or another, possibly through currency devaluation.

But the ‘wealth’ effect (variation of the ‘dutch disease’) of living expensively on credit assumes reduction by even bigger numbers (however unlikely it sounds today).

One way or another the economy (actually the credit) has grown unproductive and:
1. The kids of those living in million dollar homes will never have a home or a well paid job
2. Those living in million dollar homes will have no retirement.

Depression one way or another is coming, maybe sooner than we think due to the big Don south.

One small stone can derail the car at this point.

#160 Pre-retiree on 02.03.17 at 1:13 pm

Re: #140

No argument with your there, Garth. People believe what they want to believe. There is always some fact or some article somewhere to support your argument one way or another, whether they are alternate facts or not.
We will have to see…the proof will be in the pudding or the souffle that deflates, sooner or later.
I have the popcorn ready….

#161 RentYVR on 02.03.17 at 1:14 pm

Seems like the amateur developers have finally seen the writing on wall here in la la land and are looking to bail. Listings for houses that come with complete building plans and “pre-approved” building permits are becoming quite common. Probably more coming too following the terrible stats released yesterday. Should make for an entertaining spring out here.

#162 Millenial on 02.03.17 at 1:40 pm

I work minutes away from Parmalea Crescent in the medical field, so I know the area somewhat. There’s a considerable number of Somali, Ethiopian, and Pakistani immigrants in that area. Lots of ODSP. I guess they live in the towers on Eglinton and Dixon, East and West of Kipling, respectively.

Some of their youth are quite aggressive. I went into a convenience store a few weeks ago and a high-schooler asked me to buy cigarettes for him. I calmly said no, and he yelled at me “WHY NOT?” I thought he was going to knock me out.

Anyway, I can comfortably say I’d rather rent than pay $1.25 million for a bungalow in that area. The Eglinton Crosstown won’t even make it over to Kipling when it’s finally finished.

You are managed to slander and demean a lot of people in 200 words. — Garth

#163 Smoking Man on 02.03.17 at 1:56 pm

Hey Bottoms Up, the Science is settled. Climate Change is a scam. Ha!!!!!! and the reason behind it.

Time for a new religion, try god. Of Aliens.

A shocking statement was made by a United Nations official Christiana Figueres at a news conference in Brussels. Figueres admitted that the Global Warming conspiracy set by the U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change, of which she is the executive secretary, has a goal not of environmental activists to save the world from ecological calamity but to destroy capitalism. She said very casually:

Read it and weep.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/global-warming-is-about-destroying-capitalism/

#164 Looney Baloney on 02.03.17 at 2:10 pm

“Get a grip.” Lots of folks telling me this recently but nobody seems to know where I might find one of these “grips”.

#165 Looney Baloney on 02.03.17 at 2:12 pm

“Do I sell ours at an inflated price and then buy at an inflated price? Or look at additions?”

List your place with the condition buyer must rent it back to you for the next 12 or 24 months. See if one of the Chinese dudes bite.

#166 Looney Baloney on 02.03.17 at 2:13 pm

“It showed Canadians believed 24 per cent of the population is Muslim. In reality, it is 3 per cent.”

Maybe the muslims just go out more?

It’s handy when they’re brown, right? Sheesh. — Garth

#167 Looney Baloney on 02.03.17 at 2:16 pm

“Nope. There is no direct correlation between house horny people in KW and the TSX. — Garth”

How about over 33% of the TSX is the F in FIRE and 65% of Canadian household debt is mortgage debt?

If house prices fall it does not necessarily follow that defaults will rise (this has not been the case historically). Besides, all high-ratio mortgage debt is insured by the taxpayers – the banks bear little risk. Yes, there will be lots of misery and lost equity. But the stock market will not tank if housing does. — Garth

#168 For those about to flop... on 02.03.17 at 2:26 pm

Attention all female readers of this blog.

I will admit this post has nothing to do with today’s posting but with the often discussed topic of equality it deserves a mention.

For over a hundred years in Australia the men have been playing football in an organized league.

The girls finally have an 8 team league and in the inaugural game at a ground that was expected to be ample in size to hold the crowd, over 25,000 people turned up and 2000 people were turned away.

A lot of people thought that this league might be a joke but after looking at the highlights I was more than impressed.

I dare any guy on here to look especially at the opening clash and tell me you wouldn’t brace for impact…

M42BC

#LPstrong

http://www.afl.com.au/video/2017-02-03/aflw-highlights-carlton-v-collingwood

#169 A belieber on 02.03.17 at 2:34 pm

#27 Millennials are good obedient puppets on 02.02.17 at 7:13 pm

Attention Blog dogs: please don’t feed the trolls

#170 Guelph - Hunka Junk on 02.03.17 at 2:41 pm

The following is from my Realtor. I’m wondering which house he is talking about when he says

“The craziest sale so far in 2017 was a Guelph south end home that sold for $145,000.00 over the asking price!”

**************************************

2017 – Home Prices in Guelph Continue to Rise
Craziest Sale of the Year (so far)

Almost every day I am asked the question “David, when are things going to cool down in the Guelph market?”

If I had my way, I would answer “Tomorrow!” and it would be the truth. Unfortunately, we are continuing to see similar trends to last year in the Guelph market and other surrounding areas.

In the two weeks January 16th – January 30th, we saw 81 transactions firm up, 59 of those went for OVER ASKING PRICE. That means almost 73% of sales had multiple Buyer’s fighting for the homes.

While my guard is up, other experts believe we will see another full year of increased value.

“Unlike Vancouver where a price correction is underway, there is no relief in sight for the GTA — forward momentum and supporting fundamentals in the region are that strong,” Phil Soper, Royal LePage’s chief executive officer said in a release.”
You can read the full article here:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/royal-lepage-regional-disparities-1.3932083

The craziest sale so far in 2017 was a south end home that sold for $145,000.00 over the asking price!

While this is an extreme case, from what I can only assume was a desperate out of town Buyer, it is not uncommon for us to see anywhere from $30,000-$50,000.00 increases on homes that are properly priced, property prepared, and properly marketed.

#171 AB Boxster on 02.03.17 at 2:47 pm

In my opinion free trade and markets do not exist.
Canada does not even have free market between provinces.

Everyone espouses ‘free trade’ but it never is free.
China has the second largest economy and it has nothing close to a free and open economy.

China looks out for its own interests, which is what every country should do, including America and Canada.

To try to have true free trade between countries, ones that have democratic governments, strong legal systems, and strong worker and environmental protections, and liberal and open values and other countries that really have none of the above, is virtually impossible.

And because there are so many variations of government, legal systems, etc, trade deals between these countries are never, ever Free.

The American’s are looking for fairer trade, which I support.

I mean would you really support a trade agreement between Canada and China, if the outcome was grossly unfair to Canada?

Free trade, does not mean trade is fair.
Just as free and unfettered capitalism, does not result in fairness.

And many of the European countries are so bound up in their own economic and political systems that have little to do with true free trade.

#172 crossbordershopper on 02.03.17 at 2:51 pm

i get paid for nothing every month end thanks Mr. Trudeau.

#173 Deplorable dude on 02.03.17 at 3:15 pm

#162 AB Boxter?….free trade

Agree. As Trump’s advisor Steve Bannon stated, all Free Trade has done is to create a new Chinese middle class at the expence of the US middle class

All free trade does is move employment to where its cheapest….

Without free trade Canadians would be far less wealthy. Stop embarrassing yourself. — Garth

#174 Victor V on 02.03.17 at 3:20 pm

When Stephen Poloz says ‘uncertainty’ a dozen times, listen: Signs flashing loonie surge has gone too far, too fast

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/economy/when-he-says-uncertainty-a-dozen-times-listen-signs-flashing-loonie-surge-has-gone-too-far-too-fast&pubdate=2017-02-03

#175 For those about to flop... on 02.03.17 at 3:21 pm

Rental shenanigans going down in Kelowna…

M42BC

http://globalnews.ca/news/3224475/kelowna-rental-double-nightmare/

#176 RentYVR on 02.03.17 at 3:32 pm

“…the stock market will not tank if housing does. — Garth”

Respectively disagree Garth. Sure, most listed companies are not fully reliant on Canadian consumers, but our economy is so tied to RE, both in terms of activity and spending via leverage debt creation on inflated RE values, that I can’t see how the stock market (or at least those companies who do rely on domestic actively) wouldn’t be impacted.

Then you do not understand. — Garth

#177 If the real estate market tanks on 02.03.17 at 3:43 pm

And trump goes all anti-Canada ? anybody heavy on the tsx, well,…..at least you’re collecting dividends . 2015 would look like a good year

Pure uninformed conjecture. — Garth

#178 RentYVR on 02.03.17 at 3:43 pm

“Then you do not understand. — Garth”

What’s not to understand? If RE blows up than the people who’ve been levering up thanks to unrealized RE gains will not have the same access to credit and therefore cut back spending. Less spending = reduced economic activity = lower domestic earnings = lower stock valuations for companies with significant domestic exposure.

Don’t count on it. — Garth

#179 conan on 02.03.17 at 3:55 pm

Re #167 For those about to flop… on 02.03.17 at 2:26 pm

That was more entertaining then I thought it would be. Guts and money would scoop up the NA broadcast rights, on it now, for a song.

#180 RentYVR on 02.03.17 at 4:05 pm

“Don’t count on it. — Garth”

I don’t understand your position; are you saying that a crash in RE won’t have a significant impact on the domestic economy, or that the domestic economy isn’t a significant factor in TSX valuations? Given the size of the domestic banks on the TSX and the fact that the vast majority of their revenues is still generated from retail CDN banking, I fail to see how a significant downturn in the domestic economy could not have some impact on the TSX. Doesn’t mean it will crash it, but does mean that it could lag behind other developed markets on a relative basis for some time.

#181 common sense on 02.03.17 at 4:34 pm

#167 Flopper

Nice set of Shelias on the video intro but coughed up my drink when they introduced the “Pies.”

Thanks for the variety….good one on ya.

#182 Dictionary Definitions on 02.03.17 at 4:53 pm

Vet means to “make a careful or critical examination of (something).” Vette means a Chevrolet Corvette or Chevette or, when used alongside the word Vicky, a Norwegian-Canadian porn star.

Respectively means “separately or individually and in the order already mentioned (used when enumerating two or more items or facts that refer back to a previous statement).” Respectfully means “with deference and respect (used to express politeness to mitigate the effect of a refusal or disagreement).”

She must look great in a parka. — Garth

#183 fs on 02.03.17 at 5:00 pm

hang on a second.

The GTA is expected to grow by 115,000 people over the next 20 years. There’s no reason to believe otherwise. That’s 2 fully loaded Airbus 310’s landing at Pearson EVERY DAY. At an average household size of 2.5, that’s 46000 units needed every year. A reasonable sized condo tower at 25 storeys might give you around 135 units. Therefore, you need about 340 of those built every year in the GTA. That’s one EVERY DAY. hmmm. Housing starts are only just covering it. Only a fifth of those across the GTA are singles/semis. In Toronto, only about 3% are singles/semis. Millenials are just starting their house formation and can’t do it in a shoebox….supply and demand. And the money is cheap….and will be for a loooooong time because there are boatloads of it out there looking for a home.

You know, I had an investment advisor hold up a chart in a meeting about 20 years ago. I told her what it was before she even had a chance….average return after inflation of real estate and it went way way back (historically real estate only return slightly better than inflation). Anyway she was very concerned that our investments were highly skewed to real estate (of course, she wanted to sell me biomed stocks from Japan at the time….oh, that was a bullet dodged! lol).

My advice to young people is buy the worst house on the very nicest street you can afford, put some elbow grease into it, you’ll do alright. Just don’t go buy a stupid luxury car too…..

#184 Vundo on 02.03.17 at 5:13 pm

My SO dropped by a closing sale at HMV the other day; picked up a copy of The Big Short as a gift for me (and yet some people here believe love is dead). Reading today’s post makes me question whether or not I should even try to remain sober while watching it.

#185 Derkavich on 02.03.17 at 5:29 pm

#162 Smoking Man

Destroying capitalism ? Soviets, National Socialist, Monarchies, even Buddha failed to destroy capitalism. Are you trolling?

#186 Euro observer on 02.03.17 at 5:38 pm

#181 fs on 02.03.17 at 5:00 pm

And what will these 100 k + people coming yearly to GTA work, how much will they make and what house prices will their wages justify?

minumum wages and 50-100 k house prices? Hahaha

#187 Barb on 02.03.17 at 5:50 pm

In case you’re snowed in this weekend and want to kill some time. The first one is $9.2 million.

Google streetview these 100 Top Valued (Assessed) Homes in B.C.’s Okanagan:

https://bcassessment.ca/Property-information-and-trends/_layouts/15/WopiFrame.aspx?sourcedoc=/Property-information-and-trends/AnnualReleasesandReports/Top%20100%20Valued%20Residential%20Properties-Thompson%20Okanagan.pdf&action=default

#188 Mortgage Mark on 02.04.17 at 10:12 am

When you look at your total estimate of ‘money for nothing’, I guess one could argue that if it’s a ‘Foreign Buyer Dude’, then that’s NEW cash injected into the economy. Versus, money simply being created. Not sure if that’s a good thing or not

#189 Weekly Linkfest #23 - Financial Uproar on 02.05.17 at 7:01 am

[…] 9. This week’s cold shower is brought to you by Garth Turner, who points out just how much of our economy is dependent on both building and trading houses. […]