Ponzi me

As you know, Ontario realtors are begging the premier to start giving kiddies in that have-not province free money to buy houses. Like they do in BC. The reason?

Simple. A slew of the moisters (maybe half) are no longer able to crack into the market because federal meanies tightened up on mortgage approvals. The realtors have a poll to prove it.

Unless they have 20% down, house-horny young people must qualify for financing at the withering rate of 4.64% (the first mortgage a moist Dorothy and I got was at 12.25%), instead of the current commercial rate of about 2.5%. The purpose of the stress test is to ensure new buyers are not creamed when rates inevitably rise. The goal of the realtors is to thwart it.

You may have heard the next Ontario election happens June 7th of next year. A mere 17 months away. As a former provincial politician, Hudak knows that. He’s also aware the current preem is as popular as eating bugs. I hear the proposal is being seriously considered at Queen’s Park – to match BC’s $37,500, interest-free gift to people without money so they can buy a house, in concert with the Bank of Mom.

It works this way: mom gives a loan/gift/guilt payment equal to 2.5% of the purchase price, then the province matches that with a loan/gift carrrying no interest for five years. This enables newbies to buy a house with 95% financing insured by the government through CMHC. And because the mortgage-holder gets the federal guarantee, it can offer the lowest interest rate, which helps keep house prices high.

If you’ve ever wondered how a modern ponzi scheme works, here she be. The confluence of helicopter parenting and government pimping is at the very heart of real estate unaffordability. And ironically, it more or less negates federal efforts to tame house prices before they blow up, leaving a Trumpian-sized pile of unrepayable debt.

Below is a reminder. The swelling orange bars are mortgages. Gulp.

Well, things are getting worse, thanks to Mom and the provs. A survey out this week (by Ratespy) shows 42% of first-time buyers in BC (and 35% in Ontario) get bags of cash from their families, allowing most to skate around federal mortgage rules. In other words, BoM gifts are putting first-timers who probably could not withstand a spike in mortgage rates upon renewal, into houses. And this is portrayed as a good thing.

“RateHub is expecting the bank of mom and dad to have a record year in 2017, since regulatory changes in 2016 and rising home prices have made entering the housing market for first time homebuyers an ongoing challenge.” Of course it’s challenging. For a reason. This will not end well, which is why the stress test was created.

But it gets even worse (of course).

The real estate monolith we’ve built amounts to the greatest inter-generational transfer of borrowing and obligation in history. On one hand schemes like those Hudac and Christy Clark promote encourage kids to swallow massive amounts of debt, and on the other hand governments are shielding asset-rich seniors with million-dollar digs from paying their fair share of overhead. This week BC went beyond the pale by announcing folks who own houses worth $1.6 million or less will qualify for free money to offset their property taxes. Seriously?

The old cut-off point for the pogey was a paltry $1.2 million, so the 33% increase is epic. And guess when the next election takes place? May 9th. Yep, in 16 weeks. Hence, a government which just made 91% of all homeowners eligible for tax relief, at a cost of $821 million a year.

So there ya go. Pay kids free public money to buy houses they can’t afford. Send almost everyone a free cheque to help pay for those homes. And there’s even another program to relieve old farts of paying property taxes altogether. All of it with the consequence of keeping real estate from correcting naturally, while setting up our society for a mama of a reckoning down the road.

And what do the kids do?

They comply. They borrow. They flow their future earnings – decades of it – into the pockets of their elders. Windfall gains on one side. Eternal debt on the other.

Seems we need a revolution. You in?

207 comments ↓

#1 Scott on 01.10.17 at 7:11 pm

Finally, the rush to get out of Vancouver real estate: 43 people list their homes on the same street.

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/43-homeowners-list-broadway/

#2 Randy on 01.10.17 at 7:12 pm

Get rid of your shades, the future ain’t that bright for Ontario

#3 Alice on 01.10.17 at 7:13 pm

People trying to cash out now. This’ll be Toronto next year.

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/43-homeowners-list-broadway/

#4 For those about to flop... on 01.10.17 at 7:15 pm

If subpoenaed, 5 out of 6 people would testify that Russian Roulette is safe.

I’m staying out of it…

M42BC

#5 Doug t on 01.10.17 at 7:16 pm

Been waiting for several years now – lets do it

RATM

#6 Bank of Millenial on 01.10.17 at 7:16 pm

You’d be surprised how increasingly dubious and perverted policy will get before things reach the cliff and law makers decide too much of the public’s money has ended up in private hands.

Looks like we are just making sure the cupboards are extra bare before the actual crisis hits.

#7 TurnerNation on 01.10.17 at 7:18 pm

Where are the customers’ blogs?

#8 pathcontrolmonk on 01.10.17 at 7:18 pm

Great chart comparing Canada RE to US just before shit hit proverbial fan.

Housing prices/income, household debt and HELOC numbers should scare the shit out of anyone so they can continue to throw at said scat-covered fan.

#9 pathcontrolmonk on 01.10.17 at 7:19 pm

said chart

https://news.vice.com/story/canadas-housing-market-looks-a-lot-like-the-u-s-right-before-the-crash

#10 Adrian D'Atri-Guiran on 01.10.17 at 7:21 pm

Garth will you be my BOM? i need a downpayment for this really classy place in Yaletown.

#11 i.see.debt.people on 01.10.17 at 7:22 pm

first.

#12 Powder_hound86 on 01.10.17 at 7:23 pm

Yep I’m in!

I do find it inconsistent that you think housing is a Ponzi created by government meddling, yet negative yielding bonds are not.

If housing is a giant Ponzi driven by unsustainable debt loads and government pumping, how do you rationalize that equity and bond markets are also not experiencing this effect?

#13 Prairieboy43 on 01.10.17 at 7:24 pm

Revolution? h#€l yes. I love this country, bleed red. Do I stay and fight, leave for a long while. Smoking Man has good pulse on the nation. That pulse is not healthy. I better have a barley sandwich.
PB43

#14 MaidenAlberta on 01.10.17 at 7:25 pm

Just who’s going to attend this revolution? The debt free/mobile unfettered masses or the debt laden, kick the can forward, 2am cold sweats from the thought of being laid off mathematically illiterate sheep? Your revolution better be over by Sunday as the indebted great unwashed has to be the first one in the parking lot on Monday.

#15 Pete on 01.10.17 at 7:27 pm

Do you think that at some point the government might decide to go after these helicopter parents, I do. When the kids start to default and declare bankruptcy on their debts, parents may well be made retroactively responsible for their role in ‘undermining the spirit of the law’ for having given their kids the funds to circumvent the stress-testing process.
They say that Canadians never walk away from their houses like they do in the US, but that is mainly because they can’t. They can declare bankruptcy however, and they will as the whole thing starts to unravel at once; Their house loses value (underwater mortgage), the economy tumbles, their school loans can’t be met due to poor job prospects leaving them with very low wages, insurmountable credit card debts, etc. The whole mess will be to much to simply be handled or restructured, the writing will be on the wall for all to see. Bankruptcy: becoming a fashionable trend in the near future. Don’t believe me? Remember, these are the days in which everyone is a perpetual victim and nothing bad can be the result of their own choices.

#16 Too Big To Fail on 01.10.17 at 7:28 pm

For years, bulls on the site warned that the government would intervene at the first sniff of a softening market.

Viola! First BC, with the homebuyers loan and now potentially Ontario.

The interesting thing about the BC loan program is that it will have no impact – its all optics. It does not increase the amount of money you can afford – its simply creates a second mortgage as the banks consider the provincial program ‘debt’ as opposed to real ‘equity.’ If you could afford 600k before the loan program, you can only afford 600k with the loan program.

It seems BC did not even check with the banks first before launching the program…

#17 Lulu on 01.10.17 at 7:29 pm

This is utmost disgusting in every aspect of what the BC province did. It makes me puke all over my keyboard when I read what Garth just post here.. And Whodat Whodat gonna follow for sure for personal political future, this is such a disgrace.

Everyone know that our debt are NEVER gonna repay… so may as well spend it all the way… what the heck, right?

I’m lost for word. This make me dizzy.

#18 rainclouds on 01.10.17 at 7:30 pm

Wild Bill ain’t gonna be pleased with the sisterhood and their complete abdication of anything resembling responsible government.

Time for Billy boy to rein in the children. BC/ON specific sanctions?

#19 Context on 01.10.17 at 7:31 pm

It appears to me the politicians are attempting to buy the elections with bribes for the newer generation to hoop themselves a home based on debt. Is this called buying votes and at the same time putting mom and dad against the wall for some loot? Tell me this ain’t the case so I can sleep at night.

#20 Garth_Please_Edit on 01.10.17 at 7:33 pm

Hi Garth:

The colour scheme in the bar graph is a bit confusing. The mortgage and non-mortgage loan colours are both kinda orange.

How about changing those runaway Mortgage debt levels to red? Red for blood in the streets, red for probably steep financial loss in the next few years, etc. Please and thank you.

#21 Dave on 01.10.17 at 7:40 pm

Vote for anyone but Christy Clark

#22 LovethisBlog on 01.10.17 at 7:40 pm

I can’t wait for rates to rise! I will be mortgage free in
3.5 years and will use my former mortgage
Payments to vultch on an RB as I ease into
My retirement. The millennials will be dropping stuff into kijiji like crazy as they struggle to hold into
Their houses

Bargains await

#23 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.10.17 at 7:41 pm

Come on man!

We all know that the Bank of Mom is really the Bank of Dad!

Stop being so sexist!

#24 Mortgagebrokeron on 01.10.17 at 7:42 pm

Ponzis are great! Just as long as the new people keep joining!

#25 LovethisBlog on 01.10.17 at 7:43 pm

RV

#26 CL on 01.10.17 at 7:43 pm

I’m definitely in. But I’m no leader or organizer and I don’t see a hero on the horizon anywhere in this country. As Lee Iacocca’s book title says “where have all the leaders gone?”

Canadians, of which I have been one my entire life, are stupid. Free dollars to the people, borrowed and paid for by the people and nobody says a thing. Unbelievable. Truly.

#27 Victoria Real Estate Update on 01.10.17 at 7:44 pm

Housing bubbles are brutal. They never end happy.

As was the case with dozens of housing bubbles around the world (they all ended badly), governments added more and more stimulus (free money, etc.) to make it easier for those who were the least able to enter the market based on existing (already lowered) lending standards.

All of this was done, of course, to get more newbies into the market at extremely inflated (bubble) prices.

Japan had 100 year mortgages. They later regretted it.

The US also made it easier for those without money and poor credit to enter the market. They later regretted it.

Other bubble countries had their own versions of stimulus to help newbies.

The result of adding more stimulus to make it easier for underqualified newbies to enter the market at bloated prices can (temporarily) lead to higher prices or temporarily delay the inevitable correction. Sometimes it has little to no effect since the market was already beginning to correct.

One thing is for sure – it always leads to a deeper and likely steeper correction. It weakens the market, making the inevitable correction more severe. Part of the reason is that future purchases are brought forward, leaving less buyers to enter the market as prices fall. Less buyers on the way down means a faster and deeper price correction.

Buying votes now by making a province’s real estate ponzi scheme worse will only lead to a deeper correction in the future, a lower price bottom and a lot more trouble for an economy that is already struggling to stay out of recession with rates at record lows.

As Wolf Richter says, housing bubbles can’t be maintained permanently and the longer they are maintained, the more spectacular their implosion.

Canada’s housing market correction will indeed be spectacular, especially in BC.

#28 I am Pref on 01.10.17 at 7:44 pm

even if RE prices crashed 50 % . its still too expensive considering costs and PTax and repairs etc

and if it did correct anyhow. . guess what lots of reasonable priced rentals with desperate landlords . .

because as GT says people won’t sell even if they should ..

i put my money in balanced portfolio . .

lesson learned ..
oh but then i am a bit older .. i saw bad RE before

and the mother of all ….. its an earthquake zone . duh .. and one day even a minor tremor will scare the pants off owners … me i am out of here in that case

#29 everythingisterrible on 01.10.17 at 7:46 pm

To be eligible, first-time buyers must be pre-approved for an insured high-ratio mortgage for at least 80 per cent of the home’s purchase price. Doesn’t that mean Christy is just helping people that can already afford to buy? All it serves to do is bait people sitting on the sidelines to buy to try and keep the house of cards that is the BC condo economy from crashing down.

#30 Marius on 01.10.17 at 7:47 pm

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/43-homeowners-list-broadway/

#31 All In on 01.10.17 at 7:47 pm

“…a mama of a reckoning down the road.”

Been saying the same thing for awhile now. Question is timing.

It will have to be a severe job loss recession where the Bank of Ma no longer has cash flow and higher rates upon renewal for Junior (and for the Bank of Ma’s HELOC, in 22% of the cases).

It will be epic but very good ultimately for the economy to purge players from it that make monumentally stupid decisions.

Also, purging monumentally stupid politicians from the economy would be just as good come May and June of this year.

bsant

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.10.17 at 7:47 pm

“And there’s even another program to relieve old farts of paying property taxes altogether…….”
*******************************************

We are legion because we are many……

#33 mike from mtl on 01.10.17 at 7:49 pm

Which is exactly what us blogdogs have been saying, the gooberment created this mess with all the free stuff and 30 years of falling rates.

Now they’re trying everything to keep it that way, and there’s lots they can do.

#34 mark on 01.10.17 at 7:49 pm

Free money for buying, excluded from charges when holding. What’s next? Nothing would surprise me. The handyman’s lobby group should be asking for home repairs and renovations to be covered by the government too

#35 Ooops on 01.10.17 at 7:53 pm

“moist Dorothy”

…too much information!!!

#36 NOTHING SURPRISES on 01.10.17 at 7:55 pm

A revolution would spice up Canada.
Where do we start?

#37 Paul on 01.10.17 at 7:55 pm

Garth is that you without your beard?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=V2f-MZ2HRHQ

#38 Victor on 01.10.17 at 7:55 pm

Yes, Sir! I am in.

#39 Hairhead on 01.10.17 at 7:57 pm

Now, there’s no such thing as a real “free market”; there is nowhere where there is both perfect information and perfect competition, amongst other things. However, there are a lot of well-regulated “free markets” in our economy which do a pretty good job of price discovery, matching buyers with sellers, not distorting other segments of the economy, and enforcing contracts.

Those caveats do NOT apply to Canada’s current RE market. These markets are hideously distorted, while at the same time masquerading as “healthy, booming examples of capitalism.”

Not healthy at all.

What comes to mind is “The Picture of Dorian Grey”. Our stunning, shining, youthful (or filled with youth) RE markets are actually accumulating a hideous set of scars, carbuncles, wrinkles, wens, wattles, chancres, open, weeping sores, and piles of sagging, necrotic flesh (think of those last, if you will, as the bad debts that will never be repaid) all hidden in the attic of future.

When that picture is revealed — well, it ain’t gonna be pretty!

#40 Quebec is Great on 01.10.17 at 7:57 pm

Man, I really like living here but these Pontiac schemes got me thinking emigrate.

#41 Quebec is Great on 01.10.17 at 7:58 pm

Pontiac / Ponzi.. dang autocorrect

#42 ShawnG in TO on 01.10.17 at 7:58 pm

that’s how democracy works aint it?

if the policy is to rob Peter and give to Paul, then as long as there are enough Pauls that’s great right?

the hell with fairness and long term growth. waynn is not gonna win the next election, who cares about long term ?

#43 Victoria Real Estate Update on 01.10.17 at 8:01 pm

If you think it will be different in Canada, think again.

Recourse mortgages don’t prevent housing busts.

“The two states with the highest level of mortgage delinquencies – Nevada and Florida – are in fact recourse states.”

#44 traderJim on 01.10.17 at 8:03 pm

Politicians taking money from some folks to give to others to buy their votes?

I’m shocked, shocked I tell you

/sarc

#45 For those about to flop... on 01.10.17 at 8:04 pm

I hope Barack Obama can keep it together tonight during his farewell speech and not get too teary eyed when he says goodbye to Mitch McConnell…

M42BC
M64WI

#46 Macquarie downgrades banks on 01.10.17 at 8:05 pm

Garth, macquarie just downgraded genworth, home capital and cibc, they are saying a crash is inevitable at the current market metrics… Why cibc and not rbc bmo td or Scotia?

Thoughts??

#47 Read the Fine Print on 01.10.17 at 8:06 pm

#2 Alice
“People trying to cash out now. This’ll be Toronto next year.”

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/43-homeowners-list-broadway/
……………………….
Uh Alice, maybe you should have read the article better. It is about owners of single family homes, all banding together to offer all of their collective lots as a land assembly (to a prospective developer) on major streets ready for rezoning into multifamily.

Not quite the panic that you or the headline wants to convey.

#48 Quebec is Great on 01.10.17 at 8:09 pm

Hudak, once a Conservative Provincial leader – now a pusher of excess government policy to support an unjustifiable distended, economic bubble bomb.
Can we please get an intelligent Provincial leader with a moral and ethical backbone who won’t sell out at the drop of a hat? To think I voted for you… at least Wynne has a policy she sticks to despite its awfulness.

#49 Trump on 01.10.17 at 8:11 pm

Sure I’m in

#50 Ray Skunk on 01.10.17 at 8:12 pm

Of course Wynne will move on this. There’s no a vote-buying scheme she didn’t like – piling on the debt be damned.

Prepare for wall-to-wall advertising braying about this scheme too. “Paid for by the government of Ontario” (in other words, Liberal propaganda paid for on borrowed money on which we have to pick up the interest tab).

#51 Stomper on 01.10.17 at 8:12 pm

First – and YES – viva la revolution

#52 yorkville renter on 01.10.17 at 8:15 pm

I say the politicians, or their political parties, be on the hook for these free loans.

Why TF should I pay for this BS!?!?!!!

#53 Matthew Baker on 01.10.17 at 8:17 pm

Sign me up for the revolution!!!! I’ll build a Guillotine:)

#54 Ronaldo on 01.10.17 at 8:21 pm

Household debt now nearly 2 trillion. Wowzers. Ever wonder what that looks like. Well, it’s twice what this is.

http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html

#55 traderJim on 01.10.17 at 8:22 pm

#22 Quebec

Canadian politicians are generally wishy washy middle of the road hacks.

I see several commenters on this blog who say they are ‘conservative’ yet who have more in common with Fidel Castro than Edmund Burke.

Face it, the average Canuck has no idea what principles and integrity are, and they sure don’t seem to want to vote for anyone that had them.

Too afraid to to take a stand and do the right thing.

#56 Mean Gene on 01.10.17 at 8:23 pm

I live in British Columbia, henceforth known as Haywire BC.

#57 Al on 01.10.17 at 8:24 pm

Wynne will do everything to get re-elected including free taxpayer money to first time buyers, total and unconditional surrender to wage increase demands from Teachers, Doctors, OPSEU. Maybe even transfer hydro rate increases resulting from wind and solar overpayments from ratepayers to taxpayers.

#58 Jimbo on 01.10.17 at 8:24 pm

When I bought my wife a rock from my jeweller, one thing he said was contrary to popular assumptions.

He said something to the effect of:

“If everyone was financially literate the economy would be worse off.”

Similar to income in Pareto’s time, 80% of the financial knowledge should be in the hands of 20% of the population.

#59 jay on 01.10.17 at 8:28 pm

Wow,with all that debt it’s no wonder Trudeau planted his buddy Macallum in China full time. He’s gonna have to sell this country to the investor’s double time. Oh well, as long as you own a home you won’t mind paying toll’s ,rent etc.. to Trudeau’s investor’s .No economic plan for Canada,just sell ,sell, sell out the country .http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/the-trudeau-governments-new-plan-for-economic-growth-its-complicated/article32478679/

#60 Julian on 01.10.17 at 8:29 pm

Currently a DIY-er using a low cost brokerage.

If one opts to go the managed or financial advisor route, logistically, what does that involve – are there transfers of assets/accounts, how are regular contributions to the accounts handled, etc…

Is there some typical minimum $ threshold where the FA routes makes sense or becomes practical.

A good fee-based advisor will have staff in place to handle transfers from other companies into your new accounts – and will pay the costs of that transfer, so you don’t have to. The investment accounts should then be linked to your bank accounts, so you can make regular contributions as easily as paying a utility bill. In general, it makes economic sense to use a fee-based advisor if you have at least $150,000 to be managed. Shop around. Find someone you trust. — Garth

#61 Centurion on 01.10.17 at 8:29 pm

Another article about those moisty millennials. This time about Hamilton:

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/in-hamilton-ont-an-onslaught-of-millennials-escaping-the-bidding-wars-and-mortgages-of-greater-toronto

#62 The Limited Sage on 01.10.17 at 8:31 pm

I’ll be 28 in a month and a half. I’ve worked largely full time roles since the age of 16 – and converted to part time work to attend post-secondary education.

I live at home still, in the heart of this mess (Brampton). I’m grateful to my parents as I’ve been able to save, invest, know how to shop for discounts and become frugal in the name of trying to better my financial situation so that I can have the future I want for myself and my future family.

I have zero debt and live solely within my means. And while that means something to me, it’s a punch to the gut when you see your same friend’s celebrating their newly purchased house, the lavish $100,000 wedding, or the arrival of their first born child – which they’re all paying for with more debt loads everyone (outside of here) seems to be encouraging.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m grateful for winning the birth lottery, and for the knowledge I’ve acquired over the years. But the lunacy of house prices, for one, has given me the realization that no matter how much I save I still end up losing.

No matter how much I try to get a head in the race of life, the Government continues to add more weight to the ball they’ve attached around my ankle.

It’s demoralizing when your own Government is constantly working hard against you.

#63 Debtslavecreator on 01.10.17 at 8:33 pm

A debt based Ponzi scheme overplayed on top of a demographic Ponzi
Massive CORRUPTION and theft. The entire system is rotten and designed to enrich the elites who control the govt and use the govt to get and stay rich
The seniors paid nothing for their houses, their educations,their pensions and are getting a FREE RIDE with out of control health care costs and pensions deficits being covered by growing deficits and taxes paid for by the under 50 crowd
This Hudak scheme along with the BC scheme is yet another example of the CORRUPTION that goes on
Can you say CONTROL FRAUD
I am angry and disgusted at this system
The vast majority of these homeDEBTRENTERS are going to get wiped out over the next few years with most of their money flowing to lenders and govt
They are being used as pawns

#64 Paul on 01.10.17 at 8:33 pm

Recourse mortgages that’s a good one if you can’t pay you can’t pay.
Lots of jingle mail ahead!

#65 Go get those liars Trump on 01.10.17 at 8:42 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/health/vaccines-1.3929481

#66 Metaxa on 01.10.17 at 8:49 pm

What happens when Drain the Swamp becomes entangled with Trickle Down?

Maybe this is why his hair is the colour it is?

Hot tip: buy popcorn futures, this is going to get more gooder.
Real good. Huge in fact.

#67 Pete on 01.10.17 at 8:49 pm

This will all end with home ownership being very unfavourable and practically impossible. Renting will become the trend. The Millennials (and their offspring the Phoenix’s) will rant about how home ownership is so 1990’s and everyone needs to ‘get with the times’. They will delude themselves into believing that they have chosen a minimalistic lifestyle (for environmental reasons or some other guff such as they consider themselves a citizen of the world so why be tied down to one place) when in reality it will simply be that there remains no other option for them.
Homes will mostly be owned by banks, govt. etc. Agenda 21; another one of its goals completed.

#68 PeeGate on 01.10.17 at 8:51 pm

Tomorrow will be a fun news cycle about Trump and what he had done to the bed President Obama slept on in the Moscow Ritz-Carlton.

Daily Trump updates are more entertaining than anything Hollywood could ever produce!

#69 Jonathan on 01.10.17 at 8:58 pm

Wanted to punch my computer screen at work when I found out about the BC Homeowners Grant threshold increase yesterday. It is moves like this and the previous ones (the downpayment loan etc) that everyday is making me not want to pay provincial income tax because apparently there are less and less of us paying taxes now even though luxury cars roam the streets and restaurants are always full during weekdays, and yet people line up for free salt. Sorry, just really upset at what this city and province has become in the past 20 years that I’ve been here…

#70 toronto1 on 01.10.17 at 8:59 pm

that would be one huge bond issuance required by the govt of ontario– to be rolled over into ever higher rates when maturity comes due.

Problem with this scheme is it has to be repayed after 5 years unlike the RRSP scheme where people never put money back but just payed taxes.

I doubt it will happen but who knows– Ontario has pretty shaky finances now, they would have to take this money for somewhere else. in the end, when not if rates go up, it will be game over anyway.

fiscally, this is a insanely stupid move aimed at buying votes, the money could be invested in other areas that would provide greater good for more citizens then this.

#71 X on 01.10.17 at 9:01 pm

It is to the point of ridiculousness.

Would the Federal Liberals consider raising the downpayments to 10% like it used to be. I mean, if the first 5% is basically free money, you still have to put 5% of your own money in….

If I also have difficulty buying a car, along with my hefty mortgage payment, should the gov’t give me a car too, I mean a Canadian built one of course, then our auto industry could benefit too.

#72 Sidera on 01.10.17 at 9:08 pm

Looks the top may be close. Just heard in a course that I’m taking from [email protected] that they recently gave a mortgage to a 99 year old man….. Such a surreal moment.

#73 A belieber on 01.10.17 at 9:09 pm

Seems we need a revolution. You in?
……………..

Definitely Garth, if you’re leading the revolution, I’m in. You can show us millennials how you guys got shit done in the 60s.

#74 acdel on 01.10.17 at 9:11 pm

As usual I am always (well, not always) off topic, I enjoy your blogs Garth and your weekend warriors, but for me personally, having read your blogs for years, and have learnt a thing or two. I find that your excellent expertise have made a difference for me over the years. So, an average dude like me likes to throw in something off topic once in awhile, mostly get dumped on but oh well, life it short, here is another one if you so choose to post it. Education never hurt anyone!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/investors-securities-fraud-alberta-asc-scam-commission-top-five-risks-1.3929228

#75 Last of the boomers on 01.10.17 at 9:13 pm

Count me in for the revolution. Mobilizing the troops is overdue. Concerned though about “the bank of mom”! And on I scheme referenced as a “she”, it appears Garth believes it is only a specific gender that is rich enough to lend to the youth, and witty enough to create the “ponzi scheme” referenced as A “she. If greater than 50 percent of the world is of this gender, not sure why Garth chooses to target a specific gender as a causative factor and thereby disenfranchising them. Ryan and Doug, you need to have a talk with the lad.

@bytor the snow dog

Same for me. Twas the “bank of dad” that bought me my first house as well. I could only afford the down payment. He put up the rest.

#76 Fiendish Thingy on 01.10.17 at 9:13 pm

As more branches of the Bank of Mom & Dad retire, And try to sell their own homes in a declining market to fund their retirements, I suspect the gifts to the moisters will dry up.

The next two years are going to be very interesting…

#77 Just say no on 01.10.17 at 9:15 pm

anything that creates separation and not love is not from God.

#78 ANON on 01.10.17 at 9:16 pm

Is that a 2 trillion of private promises which cannot be even printed, right there on that chart? My eyes are faint… In that case, compared to 68 billion of existing printed public promises which can be swapped for tuna cans, that amounts to 96,6% of the private promises going to Heaven.
Now, even assuming the most hopeful scenario (“they” will do something, “they” are smart and cannot let this happen) which is that those promises are somehow put on the balance sheet of the public (the dreaded commie N-word, the one which ends with “ationalization”), and the printing presses start churning in one single year the total amount of existing promises, which took some time to buid-up, that would take about 29 years of printing.
Time to hit that bottle again. BigD is here.

#79 Ret on 01.10.17 at 9:19 pm

“I’ll build a Guillotine”

Don’t bother. We can get one from China cheaper.

#80 I don't know on 01.10.17 at 9:23 pm

“Of course it’s challenging. For a reason. This will not end well, which is why the stress test was created.” – Garth

—————————————————————-

This will end with houses continuing to escalate in prices. With no end. Garth, you have been predicting lower prices since 2008 and you have been wrong. And that is principally because free market forces have NOT been at work (CMHC, zero down, zirp, etc). The federal and provincial governments do NOT want houses to drop significantly in value and they will do everything possible to keep that from happening.

#81 Trumpocalypse2017 on 01.10.17 at 9:23 pm

10 days to go.

Afterwords, global catastrophe begins.

#82 Brian Ripley on 01.10.17 at 9:26 pm

Seems we need a revolution. Garth

Last summer as I sat under the shadow cast by the manic behaviour of my neighbours in Vancouver bidding properties up to the historic price highs in July that have since cooled a bit, I offered the following as reforms that as a country we should at least consider:

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/death-taxes

The first item dealt with Tax Reform which probably could be put together in one federal election cycle; we are already computerized and understand that robotics and autonomous machines are but a generation away.

The second idea offered is Policy Reform. Clearly it has been the government led by self serving politicians that has underwritten the biggest financial bubble by copying bad global behaviour, Canada has a unique opportunity to be different. We have lots of land, natural resources and we have a large over educated underemployed young and energetic labour force waiting for an opportunity to take over the culture instead of being constantly marketed to. I say unleash our young talent.

The third idea is a proposal to end land ownership; let the state be the owner and arbiter of all our land. Let us all become tenants and stop the terrible runaway inflation of land prices in a country that has more than most.

I’m 70 and don’t have many taxing paying years left, but wouldn’t it be great if we ran our society without taxes and without a tax department? (It’s possible, see the APT in the link included).

#83 Denise#1 on 01.10.17 at 9:28 pm

#45 Macquarie downgrades banks on 01.10.17 at 8:05 pm
Garth, macquarie just downgraded genworth, home capital and cibc, they are saying a crash is inevitable at the current market metrics… Why cibc and not rbc bmo td or Scotia?

Thoughts??
====================================
It’s CIBC because they have the most exposure to oil and residential mortgages. Other banks, not so much.

#84 Smoking Man on 01.10.17 at 9:29 pm

#12 Prairieboy43 on 01.10.17 at 7:24 pm
Revolution? h#€l yes. I love this country, bleed red. Do I stay and fight, leave for a long while. Smoking Man has good pulse on the nation. That pulse is not healthy. I better have a barley sandwich.
PB43
……..

Just the pulse of the nation? I’m thinking the universe.

Especially when in the zone. You should see the shit I see when I’m over the rainbow, almost there.

Last time it happend to me I mistook the escape stairs in the hall for the washroom at Seneca. No key to get back into the room and wearing only a Nictonite tee shirt and one flip flop.

Neadless to say, it was quite a conversation at check in counter trying to get another key with no ID.

Seriously considering quiting drinking.

If I wasent a legend before, I am now.

#85 will on 01.10.17 at 9:35 pm

yeah i think what we are experiencing today is a result of those stupid meetings all those years ago. davos, bilderberg, g20 (or whatever it was in toronto) all those years ago. remember all the fences? the dogs? and all those guys dressed up in those stupid uniforms with the helmets, shields and all? and how symbolic to have the meeting in the RE epicenter of Toronto!

this is what they were talking about. how to stave off the big DEPRESSION through debt enslavement. that is, mortgage enslavement. through various media (better homes and gardens? or how bout those stupid “reality” shows of people doing home renos?).

T2, god bless him, avoided davos the other day. he knows bad optics when he sees ’em.

revolution? yeah count me in Garth. sick to death of the whole bloody mess.

-no debt, and financially diversified in frigid saskatoon.

#86 Kilt on 01.10.17 at 9:47 pm

The best part about the housing market in BC. The NDP will get in this election, the market will tumble and misery will ensue, and the NDP will get blamed for it. It seems there is no accountability for Senior management at large corporations nor is there accountability for our Government.

Kilt

#87 fakery on 01.10.17 at 9:54 pm

#67 PeeGate

Tomorrow will be a fun news cycle about Trump and what he had done to the bed President Obama slept on in the Moscow Ritz-Carlton.

Daily Trump updates are more entertaining than anything Hollywood could ever produce!

——–

Fact-checked already… last minute desperate snowflake report

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-10/4chan-claims-have-fabricated-anti-trump-report-hoax

#88 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.10.17 at 9:58 pm

#67 PeeGate on 01.10.17 at 8:51 pm

Tomorrow will be a fun news cycle about Trump and what he had done to the bed President Obama slept on in the Moscow Ritz-Carlton.

Daily Trump updates are more entertaining than anything Hollywood could ever produce!
——————————

That whole story was a 4chan hoax, and CNN actually ran it. And you believed it.

The last tiny shred of credibility the corporate media had is now gone:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-10/4chan-claims-have-fabricated-anti-trump-report-hoax

#89 Pete on 01.10.17 at 9:58 pm

Garth set up a petition or links to the right MP who we can complain and direct our displeasure with the coming scheme. Its nice we have a plave to vent but taking some sort of action would be better. Ive emailed wynne a number of times. I hope other have made complaints as well. We need to think of ways we can take action besides investing and not jumping into the ponzi fire.

#90 Smoking Man on 01.10.17 at 10:05 pm

Funny thing about last sunday night is my wife was gambling till 4 am. She was on a roll. Brought 3200 into the room.

When one of those long awaited lucky streeks happens she sleeps I’m the truck on the drive home. A big content snore saying I’ve contributed.

Nope not this trip. All she talked about, stories of a mad streeker at Seneca.

Hiesenburg lives.

I’m going to hair club. I need a new look..

#91 KristiW on 01.10.17 at 10:17 pm

Eventually the elders will pass away and the wealth transfer will reverse. No?

#92 John in Mtl on 01.10.17 at 10:18 pm

[quote] #53 Ronaldo on 01.10.17 at 8:21 pm

Household debt now nearly 2 trillion. Wowzers. Ever wonder what that looks like. Well, it’s twice what this is.

http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html
[/quote]

[size=5][b]Impressive!! [/b][/size]

#93 John in Mtl on 01.10.17 at 10:18 pm

Damn! BBEncoding doesn’t work here!

#94 MakeAmericaUrinateAgain on 01.10.17 at 10:22 pm

DELETED

#95 joe on 01.10.17 at 10:22 pm

i do not think new homes should have GST or any sales tax.

i also think property tax should be cut a lot, homes do not drive and roads are the majority of city costs. cities should tax cars by about $800, and home taxes could go down 1200$. secondary and quaternary suites with 6 cars need to pay more tax.

#96 WUL on 01.10.17 at 10:28 pm

I agree with the UBC academic Davidoff quoted in the article below on Premier Clark’s dumb welfare policies for existing and aspiring homeowners. The article was changed to exclude his comments about the property tax deferral program aimed at assisting lowly fixed income pensioners (aged 55+) remain in their haciendas. He pointed out that multi-millionaires would be stupid not to take the money at 1% simple interest. No kidding. Where is the help for people with no money and no shelter?

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-ups-homeowner-grant-by-a-third-as-property-assessment-values-skyrocket

#97 Go and write to premier on 01.10.17 at 10:29 pm

No point in just complaining here. Go and make a formal complaint below. The revolution starts here. I’ve already sent her one so if you want to complain start here where it may matter.

https://correspondence.premier.gov.on.ca/EN/feedback/default.aspx

#98 cecilhenry on 01.10.17 at 10:29 pm

“The state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else.

And Here it is in Ontario, the endless state parasitism. One thing is taken for granted. YOU will work and be a tax slave:

MEN will have more of their money stolen and redistributed now:

http://news.nationalpost.com/n

Ontario report touting basic income likely to target middle-aged women, disabled adults for most help

Why work? Why work??? WE have communism. The government control wages and incomes AFTER the fact with taxation. The government takes 50% of everything. If you work hard then it is simply given to someone else by force.

The state always assumes there will be someone to work and therefore steal from.

#99 jd on 01.10.17 at 10:30 pm

Hmmm, the movie “Idiocracy” was not fiction after all; just disguised the country represented.

#100 Polls R Phake on 01.10.17 at 10:32 pm

The corrupt negative white collar crime law enforcement capital of Canada called BC is voting buying. That’s it. And that’s all.

#101 Long-Time Lurker on 01.10.17 at 10:39 pm

To: #61, The Limited Sage.

If you keep a positive attitude, you’ll eventually find a way to solve your problems. If you keep looking for answers, you’ll find them. I could be very specific but people who don’t earn it, don’t deserve it. Wait three years. Things could be a whole lot different.

Two more riddles, Garth-man.

#102 acdel on 01.10.17 at 10:51 pm

From those of us from Cowtown that are familiar with young mans story and for many of us throughout the country that supported him when the chips were down; sad ending! This sucks… Pathetic!

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/promising-champion-bull-rider-25-found-dead-canadas-rodeo-community-in-mourning

#103 WUL on 01.10.17 at 10:51 pm

A lucidity test on my rambling above. If I am correct that there is no means test and only an age test on property tax deferral on a Vancouver home (at 1% simple interest), Chip Wilson can invest his annual whopping property tax for a compounding interest return, assuming he is older than 55. A $75 MM house. That makes sense. Po’ folks pay taxes for that emolument to Chip.

#104 Ronaldo on 01.10.17 at 10:54 pm

#80 I don’t know on 01.10.17 at 9:23 pm

”The federal and provincial governments do NOT want houses to drop significantly in value and they will do everything possible to keep that from happening.”
——————————————————————
They will soon run out of ammo.

#105 Self Directed on 01.10.17 at 11:00 pm

#69 Jonathan on 01.10.17 at 8:58 pm

Wanted to punch my computer screen at work when I found out about the BC Homeowners Grant threshold increase yesterday. It is moves like this and the previous ones (the downpayment loan etc) that everyday is making me not want to pay provincial income tax because apparently there are less and less of us paying taxes now even though luxury cars roam the streets and restaurants are always full during weekdays, and yet people line up for free salt. Sorry, just really upset at what this city and province has become in the past 20 years that I’ve been here…
………………………………………………….
I hear you, Jonathan. I too was upset when I heard the news. But quickly followed by “not surprising, given the current situation”.

But just think about it for a sec. They moved the threshold for the Home Owners grant to 1.6M. 1.6M is now the line between middle class and so much wealth you no longer ‘need’ a subsidy. This alone proves that we have BOTH a fragile economy and a housing bubble.

We are witnessing what happens when you mix up bad politics, greed, and stupidity. Just a big mess with no winners. Except for Christy and Rennie, and his stupid bow tie. Can you believe these two are winning right now? And you are not?

Someone please start printing T-Shirts “The Great Canadian Recession 2017”.

#106 John on 01.10.17 at 11:00 pm

So is there something else to say like “The government won’t take care of you”. Guess what, it does, at least on a short term. Just to remind everyone: any political party taking steps to screw the homeowners (which are the majority in this country), will commit political suicide. That’s why you’ll see the government giving away money (and salt) and house prices rising. The people here have too much to lose in house prices drop.

#107 Smoking Man on 01.10.17 at 11:01 pm

Reading a book

Turn a page. The russan did it.

https://youtu.be/5DuRVp3S2Gc

#108 Barb on 01.10.17 at 11:01 pm

Garth for prime minister!

#109 Pete on 01.10.17 at 11:03 pm

‘Eventually the elders will pass away and the wealth transfer will reverse. No?’
———————————-
You’re a hairsbreadth away from seeing the whole picture. Upon the death of the boomers their whole net worth will transfer into the gaping debt-hole of the younger ones. Centuries worth of prosperity will be sucked back into the oblivion of artificial debts being paid off (when a debt is paid back the money evaporates back to whence it came, ashes to ashes, dust to dust, the money was created out of thin air and will return there leaving everyone destitute) . The X’ers , Millennials and Phoenix’s will never have the wealth of their elders.

#110 Smoking Man on 01.10.17 at 11:08 pm

Freeland vs Trump.

This will end well for Canada.

#111 Capt. Serious on 01.10.17 at 11:12 pm

The government is now a bank (and a poor one at that)?
Odd.

#112 d'Edmonton on 01.10.17 at 11:26 pm

#61 The Limited Sage on 01.10.17 at 8:31 pm

I have zero debt and live solely within my means. And while that means something to me, it’s a punch to the gut when you see your same friend’s celebrating their newly purchased house, the lavish $100,000 wedding, or the arrival of their first born child – which they’re all paying for with more debt loads everyone (outside of here) seems to be encouraging.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m grateful for winning the birth lottery, and for the knowledge I’ve acquired over the years. But the lunacy of house prices, for one, has given me the realization that no matter how much I save I still end up losing.
———————————————

If by ‘losing’ you mean ‘not having a house’ like your peers do with the attendant much higher living expenses and a huge mountain of debt, I say you are a winner. Watch out for your friends very occasionally admitting that you are better off living the life you do.

Remember, you have ‘positive money’ to show for your life so far as compared to their ‘mountains of negative money’. And you have a plan to grow your money whereas most of the friends you write about are likely trapped in a debt cycle with no plan to get out of it.

Stay the course. Your day will come.

#113 Ronaldo on 01.10.17 at 11:33 pm

#92 KristiW on 01.10.17 at 10:17 pm

Eventually the elders will pass away and the wealth transfer will reverse. No?
—————————————————————
I wouldn’t be sitting around waiting for that Kristi as I suspect that by the time the nursing homes are done with us there won’t be much left to divvi up.

#114 Barb on 01.10.17 at 11:38 pm

#63 Debtslavecreator on 01.10.17 at 8:33 pm

“…The seniors paid nothing for their houses, their educations,their pensions and are getting a FREE RIDE with out of control health care costs and pensions deficits being covered by growing deficits and taxes paid for by the under 50 crowd”.

—————————————
REALLY?
Really?

You obviously haven’t wasted any money on education.

#115 Self Directed on 01.10.17 at 11:45 pm

#110 Pete on 01.10.17 at 11:03 pm

‘Eventually the elders will pass away and the wealth transfer will reverse. No?’
———————————-
You’re a hairsbreadth away from seeing the whole picture. Upon the death of the boomers their whole net worth will transfer into the gaping debt-hole of the younger ones. Centuries worth of prosperity will be sucked back into the oblivion of artificial debts being paid off (when a debt is paid back the money evaporates back to whence it came, ashes to ashes, dust to dust, the money was created out of thin air and will return there leaving everyone destitute) . The X’ers , Millennials and Phoenix’s will never have the wealth of their elders.
…………………………………………………..

This made me laugh. I almost said out loud “Whoa, ease up on the drama…” but no. It’s about the right amount.

#116 Stock Picker on 01.10.17 at 11:50 pm

But at the same time taxation is eating up more of Moms income so she has to beggar herself to prop up the rising lease pmts of realtards A7s. No more income splitting means less saved for retirement…but Mom can’t move in with the kids because a starter home is now a 400 sq ft concrete coffin. Is this an attack on seniors or just another mindless policy that will come back…as all Ponzi Scams do…..to bite us in the collectives asses….. 100% taxation is well underway.

Look at what’s happening in AB with the NDP hiring ethnic special interest groups into the civil service to beat the band in order to balance a failed economic policy on the backs of skyrocketing taxes on businesses in surrounding areas adjacent to the failing downtown cores of both major cities.

Trudeau has put extremist anti Trump pols into cabinet positions …possibly because Joe Biden convinced him to remain loyal to Obama…..none of this is good for Canada.

#117 DON on 01.10.17 at 11:57 pm

#16 Too Big To Fail on 01.10.17 at 7:28 pm

For years, bulls on the site warned that the government would intervene at the first sniff of a softening market.

Viola! First BC, with the homebuyers loan and now potentially Ontario.

The interesting thing about the BC loan program is that it will have no impact – its all optics. It does not increase the amount of money you can afford – its simply creates a second mortgage as the banks consider the provincial program ‘debt’ as opposed to real ‘equity.’ If you could afford 600k before the loan program, you can only afford 600k with the loan program.

It seems BC did not even check with the banks first before launching the program…
******************
What about the Fed move – there move will have more of an impact.

BC prices are too high – not even people with money can afford it. The smell of blood is in the air and people are slowly paying attention. Maybe still in denial…but the pendulum is swinging back. We can be impatient all we want but the market will unfold when it is ready.

Greed is amazing.

Hell I’m in Garth…as long as revolution means evolution. Let’s do this!

#118 DON on 01.11.17 at 12:01 am

#16 Too Big To Fail on 01.10.17 at 7:28 pm

For years, bulls on the site warned that the government would intervene at the first sniff of a softening market.

Viola! First BC, with the homebuyers loan and now potentially Ontario.

The interesting thing about the BC loan program is that it will have no impact – its all optics. It does not increase the amount of money you can afford – its simply creates a second mortgage as the banks consider the provincial program ‘debt’ as opposed to real ‘equity.’ If you could afford 600k before the loan program, you can only afford 600k with the loan program.

It seems BC did not even check with the banks first before launching the program…

******************
In an indirect way the BC Provincial gov is going after the parents. Parents are loaning down payments disappear instantly as prices come down. Some parents will also be paying more to help the kids meet their payments.

#119 DON on 01.11.17 at 12:14 am

#31 All In on 01.10.17 at 7:47 pm

“…a mama of a reckoning down the road.”

Been saying the same thing for awhile now. Question is timing.

It will have to be a severe job loss recession where the Bank of Ma no longer has cash flow and higher rates upon renewal for Junior (and for the Bank of Ma’s HELOC, in 22% of the cases).

It will be epic but very good ultimately for the economy to purge players from it that make monumentally stupid decisions.

Also, purging monumentally stupid politicians from the economy would be just as good come May and June of this year.

bsant
************
bsant

BC’s economy is approx 20% real estate related – if i remember correctly(?). Sales are falling, and as sales fall, people in the real estate (related) business start to loose their jobs (some are carrying multiple properties) and have to sell and the cycle repeats.

Job losses in Alberta, returning unemployed workers to BC with severance – and the severances are running out.

#120 For those about to flop... on 01.11.17 at 12:20 am

WULLY,here is some details on the property tax deferral.

Down the bottom of the page it states the interest is 0.70% ,same as last year when I tried to help my in -laws stay in their house.

Remember the threshold is 1.6million.

Chip Wilson is not eligible.

CHIP reverse mortgage should make up for this…

M42BC

http://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/taxes/property-taxes/annual-property-tax/pay/defer-taxes

#121 acdel on 01.11.17 at 12:20 am

#92 KristiW
#110 Pete

Great Posts!

#122 Rexx Rock on 01.11.17 at 12:22 am

A revolution would be nice but people are to busy working paying their mortgage.The only way to end the madness is to move to another country.One child policy exits in Canada because of the high cost of living.

#123 For those about to flop... on 01.11.17 at 12:37 am

Pink Snow falling in Kelowna…

M42BC

309 Tanager DR, Kelowna
Dec 23:$1,050,000.00
Jan 7: $895,000.00
Change: – 155000.00 -15%

#124 Ronaldo on 01.11.17 at 12:39 am

Interesting article from February 2000 – kinda makes one wonder what lies ahead.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/massive-bear-market-imminent

#125 DON on 01.11.17 at 12:40 am

#80 I don’t know on 01.10.17 at 9:23 pm

“Of course it’s challenging. For a reason. This will not end well, which is why the stress test was created.” – Garth

—————————————————————-

This will end with houses continuing to escalate in prices. With no end. Garth, you have been predicting lower prices since 2008 and you have been wrong. And that is principally because free market forces have NOT been at work (CMHC, zero down, zirp, etc). The federal and provincial governments do NOT want houses to drop significantly in value and they will do everything possible to keep that from happening.
*****************

OK…in 2008 prices were lower than they are today and incomes have had little or no gains. Fast forward to today’s insane prices. If prices keep on going up up up fast fast fast then in two years first time buyers will be worst off and will not be able to enter the market ever. Knocking a rung of the property ladder.

Remember 2008/9 brought in QE around the world, which resulted in countries buying up commodities (benefit Canada) with borrowed money. That is partly how we arrived to where we are today – impending bomb.

Question: are you still living in 2008?

#126 Hawk on 01.11.17 at 12:41 am

Only ONE revolution is required – get the government the hell out of the economy and people’s lives.

All else would fall into place………over time…….once the initial hugh pain of decades of mismanagement subsides.

#127 jay on 01.11.17 at 12:47 am

Here is an example of how cheap homeowner’s are in B.C.Owner of Aston Martin doesn’t buy collision insurance for car and stuck with cost of repair,I bet she lined up for free salt as well. http://www.richmond-news.com/news/richmond-driver-of-bond-style-car-shaken-stirred-over-bill-1.6930405

#128 paulo on 01.11.17 at 1:02 am

Ok In. Viva la revolution! but wait; Whom shall we appoint? whom will be the leader?

Ok Garth and blog dogs, how about some nominations for proposed leader of the revolution

Post your nominations lets see whom comes up,could be interesting.

#129 DON on 01.11.17 at 1:07 am

#91 Jo on 01.10.17 at 10:12 pm

To 61 limited sage
Your mistake is comparing yourself to others. Your life will not be like all your friends. Have the courage to live true to yourself. Look for opportunities and value, don’t follow your mainstream friends. The fact you are on this blog tells me you have it all together. It will work out for you, maybe not today or tomorrow. But somewhere down the road you will realize yes this was the right path for me.
****************
Best advice ever!

#130 For those about to flop... on 01.11.17 at 1:17 am

A little bit of Pink Snow starting to fall in Coquitlam.

Are you folks out East watching this…

M42BC

PH01-2979 Glen Drive, Coquitlam
Dec 2:$1,999,000
Jan 4: $1,749,000
Change: – 250000.00 -13%

324 Therrien Street, Coquitlam
Oct 18:$1,268,000
Jan 4: $1,090,000
Change: – 178000.00 -14%

1720 Charland Avenue, Coquitlam
Oct 19:$1,288,000
Jan 3: $1,118,800
Change: – 169200.00 -13%

#131 For those about to flop... on 01.11.17 at 1:32 am

It’s not everyday day you see a house get a nearly 4 million dollar haircut but today you do.

North Shore got the mountains,so you know there is Pink Snow falling there…

M42BC

7250 Arbutus Place, West Vancouver

Oct 28:$12,800,000
Jan 10: $8,948,000
Change: – 3852000.00 -30%

6438 Marine Drive, West Vancouver

Dec 22:$1,690,000
Jan 10: $1,349,000
Change: – 341000.00 -20%

#132 Vern in Cowtown on 01.11.17 at 1:40 am

Garth,
Are you aware of any jurisdiction in the US deploying the kinds of tactics that BC (and soon maybe Onterrible) is deploying? I mean, property tax breaks and deferrals for people sitting on $1.6M assets? Seriously.

I’m starting to lose sleep over how unhinged our governments are with respect to spending. T2 says the plan is to run 40 years of deficits and the news is gone in the mainstream media in 24 hours.

Im starting to think a balanced longterm portfolio should be almost zero CANUCK WEIGHTING. The only exception is oil sands, which will prosper like no other oil producers when the loonie hits the skids big time.

#133 millenial82 on 01.11.17 at 1:52 am

These are some troubling signs. The bigger the freebie the better odds of getting a vote despite the consequences. I expect this to be a trend that will only snowball from here. Unfortunately there is no such thing as a free lunch. Democracy in decline, I’m in.

#134 Polls R Phake on 01.11.17 at 2:20 am

#115 Barb on 01.10.17 at 11:38 pm
#63 Debtslavecreator on 01.10.17 at 8:33 pm

“…The seniors paid nothing for their houses, their educations,their pensions and are getting a FREE RIDE with out of control health care costs and pensions deficits being covered by growing deficits and taxes paid for by the under 50 crowd”.

—————————————
REALLY?
Really?

You obviously haven’t wasted any money on education.

__________________________________________

And you have not done any research either. There many times more taxes today and the cost of living is 20 times what it was 50 years ago. Add to the fact that wages are sure as hell not up 20 fold (unless maybe you work for the Govt) and you have impossible to reach living standards compared to “grandpa days”.

#135 KristiW on 01.11.17 at 2:52 am

#110 Pete:

“Upon the death of the boomers their whole net worth will transfer into the gaping debt-hole of the younger ones.”

If (some of) the net worth of the boomers is the results of the house boom-related wealth transfer, it should be enough to fill the debt hole and leave some extra too.

#136 Freedom First on 01.11.17 at 3:27 am

Yes. Revolution. Absolutely. Already done it. I have been doing what is best for me since I was on my own at 17. I entertained no self pity but just did what any man would do put in those unforeseen circumstances. I knew it was up to me. I am a man.

Also, as I see from some of the responses in the comment section, those who offer no congratulations, but only $hit for brains snarky comments, for what I have accomplished, are for sure the same people who give no $hits if I had starved on the streets.

No worries. I hold no resentments towards the world, God, or anyone. Quite the contrary, as my past has made me the kind, empathetic, strong sob I am today who is free of what anyone thinks about how I live my life. I love it this way.

#1
Freedom First
Master of Freedomonics

#137 Dan on 01.11.17 at 3:44 am

I think a revolution is long over due. It is so criminal what governments are doing to interfere with the housing market…the problem is, the majority who see how stupid housing has become are homeowners themselves so why shoot your self in the foot.

Why would they say, hey, I don’t want free money to pay my house tax, I don’t want my insane 5x housing price gain over 10 years, and so on.

If and when things blow up on their own and they have nothing to lose, then they might actually go out and try and changes the corruption and shady policies that made this bubble, by then who cares anyhow because the damage will have started.

Nothing will change until the sheer economics of it all blows itself up. There are simply too many vested interests in keeping this party going as long as possible.

Makes me sick!

#138 NEVER GIVE UP on 01.11.17 at 3:47 am

VOTE BUYING AT ITS FINEST!

#139 OMERS on 01.11.17 at 5:22 am

#57 Al- your absolutely right, she will do whatever she thinks the people of Ontario want to hear to get voted in again, giving away incentives…lowering over priced hydro rates and then if she gets in she will f us even harder and blow more dough that the province doesn’t have!
Scary

#140 Tired of Getting Screwed on 01.11.17 at 6:37 am

I am in! Garth, just set place, date and time and I will be there! Enough is enough already!!

#141 Dan on 01.11.17 at 7:00 am

#62 The Limited Sage

“No matter how much I try to get a head in the race of life, the Government continues to add more weight to the ball they’ve attached around my ankle.

It’s demoralizing when your own Government is constantly working hard against you.”

Couldn’t have said it better but the irony of it all is that the sheeple don’t get it because owning a house is the only thing that seems to matter in life (in Canada).. at any cost.

They don’t see it as government policy that will decimate and destroy those who gorged and can’t wait to binge hard on Debt, but rather as something government must do so “I/ We” can get into the housing market.

Those in politics know how the majority think and play to that to get re-elected. It is unbelievable how irresponsible government (especially provincial policies) have become with regards to this gasbag housing bubble.

People don’t care about long term consequences (obviously the government doesn’t either), just let me get my house or overpriced apartment now!!! I don’t care that I have no money, or that prices are massively detached from economic reality, all I know is everyone who owns property is rich- I deserve it and want it too! That is the mentality of the herd, so that is why things are going on sooo long and politicians are doing everything possible to mess with it.

I don’t understand how they can’t see that massive, almost unobtainable housing for the locals is not a good thing in any economy. Actually, I guess housing is the only economy!

Might be a revolt is the only way to change it, but boomers who benefited the most, will never rock the boat, and it is them who are teaching the millenniums how great an investment real estate is (you can’t deny it with 4,5,6-10 x price appreciation and the belief and their reality that prices that only go up) so – what should we as a society expect.

#142 earthboundmisfit on 01.11.17 at 7:08 am

A revolution? Not likely. A palace coup at Queen’s Park in the not to distant future? A certainty. And Hudak is still a twit.

#143 Principal and Interest on 01.11.17 at 7:42 am

That debt is of course expressed as the principal amount. The interest required to service the debt is in addition to the principal. Given rising interest rates, and typically that people tend to take the maximum amount of time needed to pay off a debt, then the amount owed could double or triple. And of course, some tend to re-finance thus adding even more time to their sentence of time spent in debtor hell.

Imagine all the opportunities for travel, entertainment, and fun these debtors have given up. Consider the wholesale abandonment of even a semblance of financial security for these wretched, huddling debtors. It is no wonder that some young people are re-thinking how to live their lives and choosing instead to be mobile and secure rather than staring into an abyss of debt. And that will of course limit the pool of buyers for the boomers who will need to sell their overpriced properties given their abysmal saving and investing behaviour.

Garth Turner is too kind to these people.

#144 pBrasseur on 01.11.17 at 7:48 am

So there ya go. Pay kids free public money to buy houses they can’t afford. – Garth

This is utterly insane … but after all in line with what Canada has been doing for years with CMHC.

Meanwhile Canada’s «real» economy has been and is still being gutted. I don’t care how long it takes, maybe years, this will end with tears.

#145 DoomandGloomer on 01.11.17 at 8:16 am

#137 Freedom First

“…as I see from some of the responses in the comment section, those who offer no congratulations…”
——————————————————————–

That’s because you are a whiny little man-child that craves attention.

Nobody likes a braggart.

#146 the Jaguar on 01.11.17 at 8:27 am

Meanwhile, back at the Australian ranch……………….
Australia is signing an extradition treaty with China. Canada, extremely interested in increasing trade with China in these troubled Trump times will likely follow suit as will other countries. Ask yourself what this will do to the Vancouver real estate market and to a lesser extent the GTA (sorry, Toronto..you’ll always be number two cause you ain’t got no ocean front property).
For an interesting read check out Christine Duhaime’s recent Q&A. She is a leading canadian expert on these matters. Just google ‘2,000,000,000.00 in Proceeds of Corruption Removed from China and Taken to US, Australia, Canada and Netherlands’. I am too lazy to provide the link.
The chinese government is sooooo serious about going after those who have unlawfully removed funds. Before any of you human rights activists squeal, remember our largest trading partner was waterboarding people down in Guantanamo.

#147 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.11.17 at 8:29 am

@#48 Quebec c’est Bon
“Can we please get an intelligent Provincial leader with a moral and ethical backbone who won’t sell out at the drop of a hat?”
********************************************
Bwahahahahahahahaha. Thanks for the laugh.

@#63 debtslavewhiner
“The seniors paid nothing for their houses, their educations,their pensions and are getting a FREE RIDE with out of control health care costs and pensions deficits being covered by growing deficits and taxes paid for by the under 50 crowd…..”
********************************************
Bwahahahahahahaha, Let me guess. You’re under 50.

@#81 Trumpocalypse2017
“Afterwords, global catastrophe begins….”
*******************************************
Bwahahahahahahaaha. Damn! I didnt think of that name.

#148 Revolution ? on 01.11.17 at 8:29 am

Lol

Canadians are soft . Don’t be silly .

#149 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.11.17 at 8:35 am

@#137 Freedom at any Price
“I have been doing what is best for me since I was on my own at 17. I entertained no self pity but just did what any man would do put in those unforeseen circumstances. I knew it was up to me. I am a man…”
********************************************

Ladies and gentlemen.
I give to you Nietzsche’s
Ubermensch

Yawn.

#150 Ponzi me - MASHDEX on 01.11.17 at 8:50 am

[…] Read more here:: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/01/10/ponzi-me/ […]

#151 maxx on 01.11.17 at 8:52 am

#57 Al on 01.10.17 at 8:24 pm

“Wynne will do everything to get re-elected including free taxpayer money to first time buyers, total and unconditional surrender to wage increase demands from Teachers, Doctors, OPSEU. Maybe even transfer hydro rate increases resulting from wind and solar overpayments from ratepayers to taxpayers.”

As painful as it is, nothing new in terms of re-election devices- but the scale is simply epic.
I really feel for the people of Ontario, because the loser at the helm has completely lost control and is making a paramount cock-up of what used to be a spectacularly rich province.
If re-electing this loser was an “oops, I did it again” moment, WAKE UP people!
By extension, with this caliber of “leader”, Canada is on a continuing and inexorable slide down the evolutionary ladder.
I can’t wait to see what the Trump legacy will add to this mess. Canada’s “leaders” are focusing on pipe-dream solutions to the economy- literally.

#152 fancy_pants on 01.11.17 at 9:08 am

socialism hard at work until everyone is equally poor. Since votes can be bough,t as long as the have nots outnumber the haves, western ‘democracy’ will continue unabated. added bonus is that peasants are much easier to control. but of course this is all in the name of equality and love.

hard work is for losers. socialism, selfies and long brown noses get you way further. education reform tells us so, the media reveals it so.

come hence peoples. Social solidarity at the expense of individual freedoms is the new sexy. we are all the same. gather at the meditation mat for free pot and kumbaya sessions so we can discuss, self-criticize, and confess our sins against the state.

#153 McLovin on 01.11.17 at 9:22 am

Back in the late 80’s, when I bought my first place, and interest rates were 11 per cent plus, the banks asked for several months worth of bank statements to prove that the down payment was ‘unencumbered cash’ and not from someone like Bank of Mom. Do they not do this anymore? It sounds lower interest rates have loosened FI’s risk-management processes considerably. As rates rise, this could indeed be a disaster for many who are ‘house rich’, cash poor.

#154 maxx on 01.11.17 at 9:33 am

#62 The Limited Sage on 01.10.17 at 8:31 pm

Excellent post. You’re so on the right track- it just doesn’t feel like it.
Four things:
1) “No matter how much I try to get a head in the race of life…..”- try (hard) to not see life as a race- it makes you putty in the hands of master manipulators, aka anyone selling anything. Play your own game;

2) “…..the Government continues to add more weight to the ball they’ve attached around my ankle.” Stay with your program: stay frugal and save everything you can for as long as you can. Live well too, as that will only strengthen your resolve. You don’t need to blow a bundle to do it. Hug your parents often, they are doing you a major solid.

3) There are many more ways to wealth than re or 100K weddings (stupid for anyone not a MM). The early years feel like carrying tiny bricks to build the Great Wall. The middle years see you just peering over the top of it and the year of success sees you sitting on the Wall, glass of Champagne in hand, planning future goals.

4)What you do (or don’t do) with your disposable wealth is entirely up to you.

Good luck, you can do this.

#155 Euro observer on 01.11.17 at 9:49 am

We need no revolution.

We just need the people with brains to move out of the big northern frozen land and pay no more taxes (as non-residents) to parasites (the part time drama teacher, the provincial politicians) who never produced anything of value in their life.

Ops, I forgot, most people with brains already moved out.

Whoever is left will simply fuel and support spreading of the political cancer that is eating this country alive.

#156 Euro observer on 01.11.17 at 9:53 am

#62 The Limited Sage

Just change you f…ng government, it is that easy. Canadian passport gives you entry to any country in the world.

Suck it up and move on. Brampton is an easy place to leave.

#157 Euro observer on 01.11.17 at 9:57 am

#62 The Limited Sage

The most important lesson I learnt in my life is to never leave stupid people who are inferior to you to be in charge of your life. In any way possible – as the boss at work, politicians/at any level, at home etc.

#158 ccc on 01.11.17 at 9:59 am

Sing with me…
——————————————————————————————-
There was one female premier and the CREA said: roll over, roll over; so she gave’em more money and her province went down.
There was another female premier and the CREA said: roll over, roll over; so she gave’em more money and her province went down.
There was a third female premier and the greenes said: roll over, roll over; so she taxed all over and her province went down.
——————————————————————————————–
Any female politician with “cojones” (and common sense) left in this country?
Yes the sexiest comment ever, I know. What else can one do to grab their attention?

#159 cramar on 01.11.17 at 10:00 am

#26 CL on 01.10.17 at 7:43 pm

I’m definitely in. But I’m no leader or organizer and I don’t see a hero on the horizon anywhere in this country. As Lee Iacocca’s book title says “where have all the leaders gone?”

—-

My favourite book title is former CEO of Intel, Andy Grove’s 1998 book, Only the Paranoid Survive.

Complacency is the title of Canadian society today.

#160 Euro observer on 01.11.17 at 10:10 am

At this point I should probably think of withdrawing and spending gradually all my RSSP investments.

Imagine what could happen when 10-20 years down the road majority of people will have no savings (not that they have now…) and will not be able to retire.

It would be very easy for a greedy government to just grab the RRSP savings and investment of minority with such and redistribute to the not-so-prudent-live-it-all-the-high-life-on-credit majority.

Giving you some promised ‘benefeits’/peanuts in return.

Not possible you say? We shell see.

#161 bdy sktn on 01.11.17 at 10:11 am

Our new foreign minister to put Russia on notice says cbc.

I’m pretty sure that the Russians noticed that when faced with a spot of resistance her best fight is to cry like a baby.

#162 The Technical Analyst on 01.11.17 at 10:34 am

With rising interest rates in the USA that dictate our fixed mortgages here in Canada, combined with the average household debt + stagnant wages + less F/T unemployment; how you can not be see this house asset class rapidly not ending well?

In Technical Analysis, anything that goes up this quickly, goes down either 33%, 50% or 66% rapidly.

#163 Mattl on 01.11.17 at 10:49 am

Flop – when you post your pink snow updates can you post previous sales information? Would be interesting to see if list price has fallen below previous sale price. Until that happens, all we are seeing is sellers with obnoxious asking prices dropping into or near market.

The market out here is obviously adjusting. Where I live – way out in the Valley – nothing is selling. Flip side, nothing is being listed below previous sales so for now its a standoff. I think its a no brainer that prices will fall but I don’t think listing price reductions indicate a market that is getting crushed.

I sure hope there is a big correction, we have a relatively small mortgage on our place and if homes in Moody correct 25% we will be happy to sell low out here and move in. My instinct is that that won’t happen, the correction will be more popcorn fart than implosion.

#164 soost on 01.11.17 at 10:55 am

Our government has a schizophrenic conception of its goals.

I do dream about owning a house when its not going to be a cash-flow issue, but the threat of losing that dream is causing me to want to do some stupid things.

#165 Graphics Girl on 01.11.17 at 11:07 am

#6 Bank of Millenial

Please spell Millennial correctly. It’s making me crazy.

And Garth… adjectives ending in LY don’t get hyphenated.

OK. I feel better now :)

#166 TurnerNation on 01.11.17 at 11:45 am

Gold price went apesht on T-rump’s speech.
(I usually ignore it except times like these).
JNUG still trending.

#167 Braj on 01.11.17 at 11:59 am

#77 Just say no on 01.10.17 at 9:15 pm
anything that creates separation and not love is not from God

If you want to go down this route, then ALL is from God. How would you know love without all the more painful aspects of existence.

#168 Context on 01.11.17 at 12:04 pm

#159 ccc:- Your walking a fine line, and you can count yourself fortunate that the women in my rant room are not here, as they would hang you out to dry in a NY minute. They are a nasty bunch of young women and you wouldn’t want to grab their attention because you would never survive.

#169 TurnerNation on 01.11.17 at 12:11 pm

Social media is 100% weaponized now. We see this daily – the war for our minds.
Turn. It. Off

Only price, volume, matters.

#170 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.11.17 at 12:15 pm

Ladies and gentlemen.
I give to you Nietzsche’s
Ubermensch
————
Übermensch.
Is that the guy who owns Uber.

#171 bdwy sktrn on 01.11.17 at 12:16 pm

#62 The Limited Sage on 01.10.17 at 8:31 pm
I’ll be 28 in a month and a half. I’ve worked largely full time roles since the age of 16 – and converted to part time work to attend post-secondary education.

I live at home still, in the heart of this mess (Brampton). I’m grateful to my parents as I’ve been able to save, invest, know how to shop for discounts and become frugal in the name of trying to better my financial situation so that I can have the future I want for myself and my future family.

I have zero debt and live solely within my means. And while that means something to me, it’s a punch to the gut when you see your same friend’s celebrating their newly purchased house, the lavish $100,000 wedding, or the arrival of their first born child – which they’re all paying for with more debt loads everyone (outside of here) seems to be encouraging.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m grateful for winning the birth lottery, and for the knowledge I’ve acquired over the years. But the lunacy of house prices, for one, has given me the realization that no matter how much I save I still end up losing.

No matter how much I try to get a head in the race of life, the Government continues to add more weight to the ball they’ve attached around my ankle.

It’s demoralizing when your own Government is constantly working hard against you.
————————————————
need some cheese with that epic whine?

wow. victimhood in the extreme. truly pathetic. are you a man or a spoiled child?

until you change this attitude -“Government continues to add more weight to the ball they’ve attached around my ankle.”
you will forever be a loser in life.

your 28 f’ng years old and you still live with mommy!!! grow a set, try to be be a man.

YOU made decisions differently from your friends and they didn’t work out – that’s 100% on you , nobody else. you failure is nobody’s fault but your own yet you come here to complain. Have you no shame? hell even i am embarassed for you.

“Government is constantly working hard against you.”
oh, poor baby. there are millions of wildly successful young people in this country – they are laughing at your blubbering too.

#172 I don't know on 01.11.17 at 12:21 pm

#105 Ronaldo on 01.10.17 at 10:54 pm

They will soon run out of ammo.

—————————————————————-

They ran out of ammo a long time ago. So, they just run bigger deficits. They have demonstrated a willingness to keep doing so until the debt becomes so big that things will fall apart. All the economies in the western world are doing so. I believe the people in charge know how much the Canadian economy depends on the wealth effect of higher houses prices. They want people to continue to feel rich so that they will continue to use their houses as ATM machines.

#173 amazingtunnies on 01.11.17 at 12:28 pm

#103 Ryan Lewenza on 01.08.17 at 3:45 pm

loinytoins”Ryan, What is a good USD preferred ETF to hold during rising rates?”
…….In the US pref market there are mainly just perpetual prefs. Perpetual prefs pay a fixed dividend in perpetuity. These do very well when interest rates decline, but fall in price when interest rates rise. So must US pref ETFs will hold perpetuals thus underperforming when interest rates rise…”

Garth,

Appreciate Ryan’s advice…however, PFF etf in the US has gone up from $37 to $38 since US raiased rates in December, whereas Ryan expected(as did I) that it should have gone down…what gives ma’ lord?

#174 Ogopogo on 01.11.17 at 12:31 pm

What pathetic generation of compliant sheep have we wrought? What monstrously apathetic cohort of Millennials slouches toward Debtmaggeddon waiting to be creamed? The real estate centre cannot hold.

From the filthy mouth of realtors the lies continue to spew forth. Surely the correction is at hand.

Grab the popcorn. It’s happening.

#175 InvestorsFriend on 01.11.17 at 12:32 pm

A Revolution Needed in Taxation?

Investments in houses and stocks are relatively lightly taxed.

Because: 1: “We” want people to be able to afford to move around the country without incurring tax on any capital gain on their home (labour mobility).

2: “We” want to encourage business investment of all kinds.

And Regular Income is relatively highly taxed.

That’s (presumably) because “we” want to discourage people from working?

And consumption of goods and services is taxed fairly highly. That’s because “we” (presumably) want to discourage consumption of goods and services?

I don’t know, it seems to me that the whole taxation system is due for a massive overhaul.

Will that be part of the revolution?

#176 Ogopogo on 01.11.17 at 12:35 pm

#170 TurnerNation on 01.11.17 at 12:11 pm
Social media is 100% weaponized now. We see this daily – the war for our minds.
Turn. It. Off

Only price, volume, matters.

That’s rich, coming from the brainwashed mind of a “forecaster” who repeatedly, relentlessly predicted rates wouldn’t go up south of the border last year.

#fail

#177 45north on 01.11.17 at 12:48 pm

I hear the proposal is being seriously considered at Queen’s Park – to match BC’s $37,500, interest-free gift to people without money so they can buy a house, in concert with the Bank of Mom.

why should the rest of Canada pay for the rich bitches in Ontario and BC?

#178 ccc on 01.11.17 at 12:55 pm

#169 Context:
So, you didn’t like my song? Perhaps failed music and humor classes not long ago.
It’s call freedom of expression. Humor can do powerful things to wake us up. Your witch hunt approach a.k.a mob lynching, reminds of the glorious communist days back then in my country of origin. I know Canada is getting dangerously closely to it… thanks for the reminder

#179 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.11.17 at 1:07 pm

Trump to CNN reporter: “You are FAKE NEWS!”

http://www.mediaite.com/online/you-are-fake-news-trump-and-cnns-jim-acosta-get-into-shouting-match-at-presser/

Time Warner shares, as Trump tell CNN reporter “you are fake news”:

http://i.imgur.com/CoDRZVs.png

bwhahahahaha!

#180 mishuko on 01.11.17 at 1:13 pm

re previous post, should of clarified. she’s may wear blue but she’s thoroughly red with the overly politically correct, hyper sensitive attitude.

#181 For those about to flop... on 01.11.17 at 1:20 pm

Hey Mattl ,people on here have differing opinions as to what is going to happen this spring in the Vancouver real estate market.

Some people think it will continue down,others think it will be business as usual with government assistance and the third and most likely situation with things as they sit, is a spring uptick and then a slow decline.

I think a lot of the dramatic pink snow price adjustments are just erasing the spring surge of last year,prices are still outrageous but some people can’t help but think they are getting a bargain on something that has a 20% off sticker on it.

As far as houses selling below last purchase price if you have 2 minutes,go back and look at the previous thread where I gave a few examples of flippers who bought at the perceived peak last spring/summer for around 1.5 and are now trying to sell for around 1.7 after doing renovations and all the fees and taxes will run around telling everyone they broke even ,when they lost money.

I believe in the short term the city where it is going to get messiest is Richmond.
The city has a lot of foreign owners who are perhaps not as attached to their property as most folk.
It is not the most desirable place to live if you are looking to buy a multimillion dollar house.
Richmond so far this year out of all the cities in greater Vancouver has the biggest percentage / price reductions with the average price drop a staggering $114k at the time of writing.

I wrote a post a few weeks ago stating what I believe to be going on is market compression,the top end is falling fast ,the bottom is rising fast and all the properties in between are oscillating slowly,waiting to see what happens in the next year or so.

I have been having a laugh with the Pink Snow price drops but I also gave examples the last few years of when houses went for crazy money over ask as well.

Will the traditional Spring market stop the pendulum swinging back,even with government interference?

That remains to be seen,but I feel the winds of change gently blowing in my direction.

Vancouver will always have a premium on it ,but what has gone on here the last decade is a disgrace…

M42BC

#182 Chelsea on 01.11.17 at 1:20 pm

#159 #169

From a women’s point of view… if a women is nasty/no common sense (Canada) she will bring a province or a country to ruin, for example Germany!!! And yes, there have been great women leaders. That is why Trump is the USA President (soon to be), and not Clinton (scary thought).

For one thing I will not be voting for Christie Clark … enough damage here in BC.

Yes, a revolution would be grand … but, how many would have the guts to step forward ……

Cheers

#183 Tom Gagnon on 01.11.17 at 1:35 pm

Mortgage lenders sidestep rules with ‘bundled’ loans

Canada’s subprime mortgage providers are increasingly teaming up with unregulated rivals to sidestep rules designed to clamp down on risky lending, even as regulators have tightened lending standards to shield borrowers in case a decade-long housing boom goes bust
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/mortgage-lenders-bundled-debt-1.3930774

#184 Context on 01.11.17 at 2:03 pm

#62 The Limited Sage:- $100,000 for a wedding is a waste of money. In America the average wedding costs about $30,000. There was this gal in Boston and she came to me as didn’t want her daddy to pay because am known as a cheapo. I brought it all in for $15,000 which included everything and the marriage was held in the chapel there. This was held in style at the oldest private women’s club in USA filled with antiques across from the park for photos. The members represent the female elite and money is no object when a bride is in need for her wedding day, so we cut a deal for about 80 people in attendance there.

#185 For those about to flop... on 01.11.17 at 2:31 pm

This is one of my Pink Snow houses that I highlighted a couple of days ago.

They picked it up in the summer of 2015 for 750k,which was right on assessment.

They had it listed for 1.298m but two days ago they lowered it roughly 300k and now could be yours for 980k,now trying to cash out below assessment.

You could argue that this is meaningless and they were just being greedy ,but this is how corrections start, fools stop paying for one reason or another what the homeowners are demanding.

What’s gonna happen to this house? Who knows.

But a lot of people got used to 20% gains each year and that simply doesn’t go on forever…

M42BC

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1VzUyNg==

#186 bdwy sktrn on 01.11.17 at 2:32 pm

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17688872/2273-GRAVELEY-STREET-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V5L3C1

1.56m for a tiny old bung.
a very light shade of pink snow, perhaps. almost white.

this one will sell at or near ask fairly quickly.

#187 Rabitt One on 01.11.17 at 2:40 pm

So, if majority of citizens and government want to keep current housing valuation, only rational thing to support from here is CAD dollar devaluation.

#188 Fed-up on 01.11.17 at 2:48 pm

#172 bdwy sktrn on 01.11.17 at 12:16 pm

—————————————————————————

The poster raised some very good points regarding the crap storm this country has become along with the plight of his generation and you answer him like an arrogant troll? How constructive. Remind us to respond to you with this level of sympathy if anything unfortunate should ever strike you down in this life.

#189 For those about to flop... on 01.11.17 at 3:02 pm

Below is a genuine case of Pink Snow that is on the ground in Richmond.

According to assessment b.c it was bought in April 2016 for $826k and now is on the market for a $27k loss,plus expenses.

Don’t worry it won’t be on the 6 o’clock news…

M42BC

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1WDMyOQ==

2220 No. 4 Road, Richmond

Nov 22:$968,000
Jan 8: $799,000
Change: – 169000.00 -17%

#190 Yuus bin Haad on 01.11.17 at 3:18 pm

Revolution? Why not just wait for everything to blow up and pick up some of the spoils?

#191 For those about to flop... on 01.11.17 at 3:30 pm

17 at 2:32 pm
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17688872/2273-GRAVELEY-STREET-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V5L3C1

1.56m for a tiny old bung.
a very light shade of pink snow, perhaps. almost white.

this one will sell at or near ask fairly quickly.

/////////////////////////

Yeah ,that one was bought in May 2016 for 1.6m.

So maybe the are trying to rope -a-dope or they are going to take a loss.

Perhaps most surprisingly is your neck of the woods is still one of the most hearty areas in Vancouver,and yet there is still a Pink Snow on the ground…

M42BC

#192 Reasonfirst on 01.11.17 at 3:32 pm

What I found really astounding is that once you pay the CMHC fees and add them to your mortgage you are looking at ~98% loan to value ratio.

#193 Nemesis on 01.11.17 at 3:37 pm

#InflammatoryWednesdayMischief,Or… #LivingLarge,PropertyPyromaniacs… #FoulDeedsInTheBay… #Madoff’sRevenge… #CurseOfTheCounselor?

[ColonialTimes] – Victoria Developer Self-Immolates Upon Arson Arraignment

…”Large has been charged with arson damaging his own property, mischief, fraud over $5,000 and arson for a fraudulent purpose.”…

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/owner-of-heritage-home-gutted-by-fire-faces-arson-fraud-charges-1.7000080

#194 cramar on 01.11.17 at 3:46 pm

@ #62 The Limited Sage on 01.10.17 at 8:31 pm

————

Hey, you are on the right path. Of course if a house paid for by debt is your friends’ goals, then you could certainly join them. The fact that you chose to live within your means and eschew debt is a sign that you want to be different. I congratulate you! But, being envious of friends’ material acquisitions is not the way to go.

Listen, if owning your own pad is the path to your self-esteem consider moving to small town Ontario. The downsize is that you might have to take a different career path with less money. The upside is that you can then afford to buy your first house in the $100k-$200k range.

Sounds like you really need to think deeply of what you want out of life, then go after it. As Steve Jobs said, “Think Different.” You’re already on the right path.

#195 cramar on 01.11.17 at 4:01 pm

Someone the other day mentioned high avocado prices in Vancouver. Insane avocado prices must go along with insane RE prices. Another reason to live in SW Ontario.

My wife just came home with a bag of 6 for $2.50. I said, “We already have five in the fridge!” She cannot pass up a bargain.

Good thing I eat avocados ever day, but this will be a challenge. I’d share with Vancouver if I could.

#196 For those about to flop... on 01.11.17 at 4:15 pm

More Pink Snow in Richmond.

This house was purchased in October 2015 for the princely sum of 955k.

They just dropped a massive 440k off the price and are just trying to escape with their Walmart undies…

M42BC

7320 Francis Road, Richmond

Dec 2:$1,430,000
Jan 10: $990,000
Change: – 440000.00 -31%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1V1kyOA==

#197 Irrational Exuberance on 01.11.17 at 4:20 pm

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17688872/2273-GRAVELEY-STREET-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V5L3C1

1.56m for a tiny old bung.
a very light shade of pink snow, perhaps. almost white.

this one will sell at or near ask fairly quickly.

—————————————————–
Purchased for 1.6M in May 2016. Even if it sells for ask, seller loses money. Won’t go for ask anyways – wishful thinking.

#198 Dan on 01.11.17 at 4:33 pm

To start revolution you have to have a surplus of educated people or you have to have a lot of poor and angry people.
Well there is a lot of uneducated and entitled people in Canada right now. That is called a canadian nationalism.
And also how you can change a country which still has no constitution. How you can change the country which celebrate its foundation on brutal murder of canadian soldiers in great war by british officers…

#199 Dan on 01.11.17 at 5:01 pm

And to proof that even people in high power in Canada are stupid we should look in just few things here…
New foreign minister is banned in Russia and interest rates are not going up. While our masters on the south are making interest ratest up and elected President friendly to Russia. Well Hussain did everything in his power to start some kind of war in last few days of his presidency to hurt Mr Trump and now we as citizens of USA anus we’ll have our own foreign policy and our economy would be independent, right? Maybe some strong USA fart is in order so we will find ourselves out in the cold. And we like cold.

#200 bdwy sktrn on 01.11.17 at 5:09 pm

#194 Nemesis on 01.11.17 at 3:37 pm
#InflammatoryWednesdayMischief,Or… #LivingLarge,PropertyPyromaniacs… #FoulDeedsInTheBay… #Madoff’sRevenge… #CurseOfTheCounselor?

[ColonialTimes] – Victoria Developer Self-Immolates Upon Arson Arraignment

…”Large has been charged with arson damaging his own property, mischief, fraud over $5,000 and arson for a fraudulent purpose.”…
————————–
this guy is brilliant and has balls.
the charges are dropped.
he got his demolition permit (the whole purpose of the excerise)

#winning

when it comes time to tear down this shack, an arson charge seems a hell of a lot simpler than a getting a demolition permit from the cartel at city hall. burn baby burn.

#201 Dan on 01.11.17 at 5:25 pm

#178 45north on 01.11.17 at 12:48 pm
I hear the proposal is being seriously considered at Queen’s Park – to match BC’s $37,500, interest-free gift to people without money so they can buy a house, in concert with the Bank of Mom.

why should the rest of Canada pay for the rich bitches in Ontario and BC?

———————

Its only home owners who bought 15-20 years or more ago who are rich if they cash out, the rest are debt slaves who think they are “CIBC richer than they think”. I really hope the correction comes soon. Such stupid policies to keep everything afloat.

#202 Ronaldo on 01.11.17 at 5:39 pm

173 I don’t know on 01.11.17 at 12:21 pm
”I believe the people in charge know how much the Canadian economy depends on the wealth effect of higher houses prices. They want people to continue to feel rich so that they will continue to use their houses as ATM machines.”
—————————————————————-
So maybe what we need is a replay of 2008 and a reversal of the wealth affect of the Bank of Ma and Pa to bring things back to reality. There needs to be a rude awakening and I believe that this may be the year that we will witness that. Just feels so much like January 2001 and 2008.

#203 Freedom First on 01.11.17 at 6:04 pm

Yes. The same old antics of personal attacks trying to shame and guilt a real Man. Using only name calling, shame, and guilt, as their only arsenal. You are weak.

#1
Freedom First
Master of Freedomonics

#204 Tony on 01.11.17 at 6:08 pm

Re: #125 Ronaldo on 01.11.17 at 12:39 am

Very nice article, we can see what happened back in 2000 when the legit P/E ratio hit the 22 area. Today the true (corrected for bogus accounting changes over the years) P/E ratio is in the low forty range or around twice the P/E ratio just before the dot-com crash.

#205 Saraya grewal on 01.12.17 at 1:17 am

Comment #69 Jonathan. Couldn’t agree with you more.

#206 Jack on 01.12.17 at 2:27 pm

I dont think the CMHC is gonna comply with Christy Clark’s wishes. Here’s what CMHC says:

“We will be applying our usual standards to borrowers taking advantage of the support program. These standards include testing a borrower’s ability to repay not only their mortgage but also their other debts, including the new incentive.” from CMHC’s twitter account in reply to a question on the new BC home subsidy.