The predicament

Next week, as you know, everything changes. Trump becomes POTUS. The Dow crosses the 20,000 mark for the first time. America becomes Great Again. But we don’t. And just imagine, as I suggested last week, if Donald does to the Canadian car industry what he just did to Mexico. The last of you in Oshawa and Windsor can turn off the lights.

Big changes are already afoot. Calgary, for example, has a full-blown commercial real estate crisis on its hands. Eight floors in the snazzy giant Bay Street bank tower where I sometimes hang out just emptied, which makes the elevator trip into the sky a lot faster. And, wow, look at Vancouver.

Chris Doherty was a career veterinarian (we love vets on this blog) but these days does economic and business research for other animal-treatment practices.

“Perhaps I have too much time on my hands, or need a new hobby,” he tells me, “but back in late July, I randomly selected a smattering of homes from the GTA, Guelph and Vancouver to keep an eye on. I would check back on them every now and then to see if they were still listed, and if so, what their price was.”

He sent me an elaborate, impressive, colourful spread sheet of the results. “Most of the GTA results are unsurprising,” he reports, “but Vancouver was quite different. For one, it took far longer for the listings in Vancouver to dry up. Additionally, some listings in particular are very interesting:

“3312 CHURCH STREET – Originally listed for $1.868m, dropped to $1.79m, and is now listed as “Sold”, with a list price now recently at $849,000.”

“14 8531 BENNETT ROAD – Originally listed for $668k, increased to $769k, then down to $758k and now down to $599k, with ad mentioning a motivated seller.”

Well, there you have it. Three real-life examples of what’s actually happening on the ground in what was, until a few months ago, not only the hottest real estate market in Canada but the steamiest on the planet. It was fed continuously by the volatile fuel of cheap rates, lax lending by outfits like Vancity, pro-housing policies, rampant local speculation and realtor-inspired FOMO using Chinese dudes as the catalyst for panic buying. As average house prices soared way beyond the ability of average families to buy in, it was only a matter of time before the inevitable occurred – as vet Chris chronicles.

“Interesting what you find when you search out data points for yourself,” he says, “rather than relying on the spoon fed conclusions from the Real Estate Boards.”

You bet. And let’s all remember it was the Vancouver board that started using Frankenumbers instead of average monthly prices, knowing full well they’d come in handy one day to mask a rapidly deteriorating market, continuing the fiction that real estate’s safe. Well, it’s not. Especially now.

(Note: One home Chris used as an example of radical price drop was removed from the original post as he erred in his research.)

Here’s some bank-generated evidence of what this pathetic blog told you a while ago. There is only one real estate market still standing. What a stunning reversal from a couple of years ago when homeowners in Winnipeg, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Calgary, Regina, Kelowna and the entire Lower Mainland were crowing about ever-rising house prices. Like most investors who inevitably get squished, they confused a bull market with brains.

Two final points. Almost 80% of potential first-time homebuyers in Ontario are now saying the feds’ new mortgage Moister Street Test is stressing them out, and quashing their ability to purchase. “Our survey indicates that the new stress test will have a negative impact on first-time buyers’ ability to buy a home,” says realtor boss Tim Hudac, who wants the government to give the kids free money so his members will not have to turn in their Audi A7s. “Mortgage stress testing, rising house prices, lack of supply — we’re dealing with a real estate market that is getting tougher and tougher for the first-time buyer to break into, especially in the GTA.”

You bet. Of the moisters surveyed, 45% can’t save enough, a third have to buy a cheaper house and almost a quarter are moving out of town. So, combined with the higher interest rates that the Trumpster will be bringing with him, how long can the Toronto market stay at this altitude?

Lastly, consider the ripple effects when real estate goes bad. Calgary’s a lesson. In the last few days came word the value of downtown office properties has dropped by an eye-popping $4 billion, as the vacancy rate soars above 25%. Look at the city’s shining landmark Bow Tower – whose value has dropped 22%, where dozens of floors are dark and likely to stay that way for years.

“The bigger story is: How far can this go?” Greg Kwong, regional managing director for commercial real estate services firm CBRE Ltd. told the local paper “I can almost guarantee that you’re going to see property values drop further.”

Nobody’s immune from this. And it may get worse if Trump trashes Canada. BTW, did you hear T2 is snubbing his inauguration?

Is there a vet in the house? I’m faint.


#1 El Presidente Trump on 01.08.17 at 5:29 pm

12 days til TRUMPass!!… and deplorables far and wide take over!
The speed of light will no longer be bounded – anything is possible.

#2 Polls R Phake on 01.08.17 at 5:29 pm

And as President Trump is ushered in lets have a look at the top ten greatest science hoaxes of 2016 soon to be publicly debunked by a new era of politics and truth:

#3 TRUMP on 01.08.17 at 5:31 pm

Windsor is the exception to the rule.

Ivanka and Melia need minivans. No one can build them better than Windsor!!!

#4 This Week in Money on 01.08.17 at 5:32 pm

Ross Kay on This Week in Money –
BC’s Home Price Assessment is Mathematically Flawed and Home Owners can Appeal

#5 Londoner on 01.08.17 at 5:39 pm

A friend of mine sent me this link (below). It’s for the Milton Mattamy owners forum where people can discuss their houses and new releases. This particular thread is about the latest release of lots & houses which were made available this weekend. Apparently they were fully sold out within the first half hour with people camping out in the freezing cold. But the post that particularly piqued my interest was the one where a buyer stated that he was looking for 2 detached houses ($1million a pop), one for himself and the other for his wife:

On the Internet, all dogs are purebreds. — Garth

#6 Penny Henny on 01.08.17 at 5:39 pm

Nobody’s immune from this. And it may get worse if Trump trashes Canada. BTW, did you hear T2 is snubbing his inauguration?-GT

Drama queen.

#7 personal first time experience on 01.08.17 at 5:43 pm

my anecdote as a first timer 15 years ago was this..

Wife and I moved from Van to Surrey because the 2nd child had arrived and we couldn’t afford to own Van

Wanting to build equity then we decided to buy a new built in South Newton. The big draw was the walking distance to the newly built Y.

Our downpayment was about 30,000 and the purchase price 235,000. The house was a duplex, one shared wall and no strata. About 2400 sq ft on 3 floors and a typical stamp sized lot. Household income somewhere in the 90s.

Eventually the neighborhood got way too busy and overbuilt. We sold 5 years later for just shy of 400,000.

This was a typical starter-home designed for a young family.

Today the assessed value of this duplex is 700,000

An hour outside of Van. Bad traffic any day. Traffic worse now than 15 years ago. House is also 15 years older and the roof may need replacement in 10. Forced air heating and water boiler will need to be changed soon.

How many young families will want to get into this market with a starter home worth 700,000 an hour outside of Van?

I see that house on Church Street in Garth’s post above. At 849,000 it is attractive and has potential.

Vancouver RE may be cooked but the burbs are completely overdone and falling apart financially.

We’re in cash and renting. Invested and collecting a cheque from dividends for years to come unless the wheels come off.

Feeling sorry for the young families who are starting out now and trying to make it work. The politics in this province are to blame.

#8 Linda on 01.08.17 at 5:43 pm

Much news regarding the drop in assessed property values in Calgary. Commercial properties in particular were cited & the big story is that outlying (non City core) commercial/business properties would see increases to offset the lower values of properties in the city core. It was predicted most residential properties would see a drop in valuation. Well, the paperwork arrived in the mail & indeed, our residential property was valued for a lower amount. Seven (7) thousand less than it was evaluated at in the previous year. Depending on just how the mill rate is set we might see an actual reduction in the amount of property tax we pay in 2017. I’d estimate we might pay about $50 less than last year. Not that I’m counting on that, as the province is likely to increase their take even if the city doesn’t.

#9 Exilled on 01.08.17 at 5:45 pm

Sir Garth: So am I!

#10 3312 Church Street Vancouver on 01.08.17 at 5:48 pm

Great tool from BC Assessment.

Type in the address and see the assessed value and sales history.

Garth, did this place get delisted or what happened? Your contact mentioned “sold” and $849,000 but it sold last in 2015 for $845,000. Maybe the last sale wasn’t recorded yet.

Anyway, if someone picked this up for $849,000 now or $4,000 more than 2 years ago the Van RE bubble has definitely burst and the slide is just gaining speed.

#11 JSS on 01.08.17 at 5:51 pm

Maybe T2 was not invited to the inauguration.

#12 joey joe joe on 01.08.17 at 5:52 pm

Was at a reunion in Vancouver this weekend. It was great catching up with old friends. However, everyone was talking about their assessments “up 30%!!” etc. No one knows or cares about sales figures, (or facts and data) here. I kept my mouth shut, saying anything negative about real estate in Vancity is like preaching atheism in Vatican city. Better start praying

#13 Crazy year on 01.08.17 at 6:00 pm

Also in the UK:

Here’s why millennials need to inherit rather than earn their wealth

In the US democrats go lunatic:

5,000 National Guard Deployed At Inauguration As Michael Moore Calls For “100 Days Of Resistance” Against Trump

#14 Leo Trollstoy on 01.08.17 at 6:01 pm

Toronto real estate prices are strong. Rising. And insane. Hope it ends soon but I can’t see it.

#15 hope & ruin on 01.08.17 at 6:03 pm

What findings did Chris report for Guelph?

#16 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.17 at 6:05 pm

The year the wheels come off the LowerBrainland cart…..

#17 mortgagebroker on 01.08.17 at 6:05 pm

Mr Turner, why don’t you throw your hat in the ring for the conservative leadership???

Bunch of us hopeless blogaholics would stump for ya!!

Don’t stand by and let O’Leary win

I can see it now. Make Canada Pathetic Again. Woof! — Garth

#18 Rapier Wit on 01.08.17 at 6:07 pm

Given the discussions of the past couple of weeks, this piece seems pertinent.

So, Garth? What’s your take?

#19 For those about to flop... on 01.08.17 at 6:07 pm

According to b.c assessment the first house has been bulldozed after being sold for $1,955m in March 2015.

There is now a new build there with a valuation closer to the 4million mark.

The second house was last sold in March 2015 for $846,000

The good doctor states he was looking from July last year but it might have been before that.

Time goes fast when you are having fun…


#20 Derek R on 01.08.17 at 6:10 pm

We are entering a new era alright. If your ducks aren’t in a row yet, you’d better sort them out quick.

#21 Visitor1 on 01.08.17 at 6:12 pm

About 3691 W 23RD AVENUE: The 1.788M list price and photo are likely for 2015 as that is what a Google search shows. From the 2016 photos and BC Assessment, the house was rebuilt after the 2015 sale. Could not find the 2016 sale price.

#22 LovethisBlog on 01.08.17 at 6:12 pm

The federal Gov took steps…..3 years too late. Glad I am not in the underwater boat

There is a lot of pain coming for all those smug people who stated “real estate always goes up” and then bought in way over their head.

I eagerly await.

#23 For those about to flop... on 01.08.17 at 6:13 pm

Here is the new building that replaced the first house…


#24 Ronaldo on 01.08.17 at 6:14 pm

Toronto, July 15, 1988

#25 Arun on 01.08.17 at 6:15 pm

Thanks for the info….I am from Perth Western Australia….we are also experiencing similar downturn…available rentals have gone up by 400% compared to few years ago….

#26 3691 W 23RD AVENUE on 01.08.17 at 6:16 pm

3691 W 23RD AVENUE

This house sold for $4.1M in October 2016 FYI.

#27 Linda on 01.08.17 at 6:22 pm

JSS may have something with the ‘non-invite’ comment. Trump likes the limelight (duh) & T2 tends to be a bit of a media darling. Also, given what T2 stands for I can’t see much in the way of compadre moments between Trump & T2. So was he or wasn’t he? Offhand I would say he was, simply because I just can’t see that news not being leaked. Given that the US is still our major trading partner going to be interesting to see what the fallout of not attending the inauguration might be…..

#28 boopsie on 01.08.17 at 6:25 pm

Garth, you know full well that PMs never go to inaugurations. You are just perpetuating the myth that Fife and others have on MSM. Shame.
It is a diplomatic thing. America’s party, and they are welcome to it.

#29 leinad on 01.08.17 at 6:26 pm

Does CREA really gives out “FAKE NEWS” -manipulate stats to stimulate/ manipulate the market? and Hudec is part of this…is he Russian?

Russians are working with CREA to manipulate prices because Putin has an interest in Toronto real estate….I have seen Russians in Toronto with my own eyes and often wondered …what are they really up to? and what do they want….?

They helped Trump get elected along with millions of other Americans( who are probably spies as well)….what the hell is going on here…and now their in Canada? Who is going to stand up to those Russians?

#30 Keith in Calgary on 01.08.17 at 6:27 pm

Trump won’t touch Canadian auto manufacturing because US companies have been here for decades already, are not setting up shop here to save billions, like they do in Mexico, et al.

More anti-trump bullshit from a former socialist politician who crossed the floor just to keep the a regular pay cheque coming in.

#31 3691 W 23RD AVENUE on 01.08.17 at 6:28 pm

As a follow up, 3691 W 23rd Avenue is not showing up as a sale in MLS. The 1.788M listings were cancelled. So, the guy tracking data on this house is wrong. No huge price drop on this one. Only a large absurd gain for the seller and a greater fool purchaser.

#32 mitzerboy aka queencitykidd on 01.08.17 at 6:33 pm

a little slow with the real-estate thingy out here
its been -30c fir a couple months now
..not really movin weather

at least the days are gittin longer :)

#33 Victoria Real Estate Update on 01.08.17 at 6:34 pm

Garth’s all over it – house prices in Vancouver have fallen a lot more than what the Frankenumber states.

As Garth says, Vancouver’s housing correction will pull Victoria down with it.

However, the local board’s stats clearly indicate that Greater Victoria’s market engaged in the market correction process some time after April.

In December, sales of detached homes were down 10% year-over-year.

As well, last month, Victoria (city) posted its lowest December detached sales total since 2008. Even worse than in 2012 and 2013, the two worst sales years for Greater Victoria since 1984. Below are the numbers from the local board:

December 2016: 17 sales
December 2012: 26 sales
December 2013: 28 sales

* 2012 – Greater Victoria posted its lowest detached home sales total since 1984
* 2013 – second lowest since 1984

Year-over-year, December sales were down an alarming 47%.

Those who said a new normal had been established in Victoria – with higher sales numbers a part of that permanent change – were completely wrong.

Rapidly declining sales (see above) are proof that there was no permanent change, no new normal in Victoria.

The next part of the market correction process for Victoria will be falling prices. As Garth says, that will happen soon.

#34 Chris on 01.08.17 at 6:50 pm

I stand corrected on examples one and two. It seems old sales data got pushed to the top of searches. Thanks for keeping me honest!

In Guelph I followed five houses, which sold/delisted somewhat slower than within GTA proper, but not dramatically so.

#35 Insider on 01.08.17 at 6:58 pm

#12 joey joe joe

Everyone in the Vatican is an Atheist, at least with regard to any one particular Dog. They figured out long before Marx did that “Religion is the opiate of the masses” and just decided that they had a market opportunity.

You can tell by the way they kept the bible in foreign languages for 1500 years. They knew damn well what they were selling as a social control mechanism did not match up with what the texts said. That is why the liturgy is so selective of biblical texts and is still referred to by main stream churches much more often than the bible.

All one has to do for proof is actually read the old testament up to about Daniel to see for yourself. What isn’t childhood stories (the first few chapters of Genesis) is outright barbaric and often at great odds with modern theology.

Let’s leave all the genocide and mass murder out and look at a simple question: What is the biblical definition of marriage? The church uses the Adam and Eve story (which was a complete fabrication) to suggest that a marriage is properly defined as between one man and one woman. Ok, how many wives did Solomon have? David? How was it ok for David to get one of his best warriors killed so he could add Bathsheba, already married, to the fold? What the heck was Lot doing knocking up not only one but two of his daughters? And who did Cain and Able marry? Sisters? Must have been. And what was Abraham doing knocking up his wife’s “handmaiden”? The list goes on and on. The number of acceptable marriage arrangements in the bible counts to the number of Solomon’s wives (he must have been one horny guy). So long as it is not gay though, that is right out.

So the long and the short of it is the bible condones polygamy, the church does not and they hid the texts in the bible for years and still don’t endorse them.

The Catholic church has had a science counsel for a long time and knew the earth went around the sun long before Galileo published the obvious fact. It was their own insider Kepler who proved it was the only mathematical explanation. They kept silent about it until it could be contained no more, like they did with evolution, because a sudden change would “disrupt the faith” of their many paying members.

Watch some youTube videos and you can get a good sense how highly placed priests view theology as an “evolving thing”, that changed as our (their) understanding of the divine advanced. They now completely agree that the earth is round, orbits the sun, all of it is very old, and that life evolved. Christ is still the savior though. They can’t drop that one but they also don’t have a stand on when he’s coming back because Revelations is a historical document that described the fall of Rome and put the Pope on the throne.

This is of course a very different idea than what certain people who’ve read the text themselves have come to believe. For those people, Revelations could happen any day and the earth must only be 6000 years old because if Genesis isn’t true Revelations might not be either. I see it as just one big way to not stress about your mortgage.

PS some other religions aren’t much better, if they are better at all. The one thing Christianity has going for it is that their guy wasn’t a murdering megalomaniac, he spoke peace and charity. (And chastity if possible too but I can’t go with that.) And it of course must be understood that more of the new testament was attributed to Paul than anyone else, so who’s religion are we following? It you take JC’s words out of the Gospels, eliminate all obvious duplications, and then compare what’s left to the writings of Paul, Paul established Christianity not Christ, he was much more prolific. This was a clear case of your star player getting “injured” and the rest of the team having to finish the game.

#36 mike on 01.08.17 at 7:08 pm

Garth, why don’t you just get your real estate license and become a member of TREB so you get all the data?
I got my real estate license because I thought I would use it but I don’t want to buy anymore rentals in Hamilton.
The 3 courses are about $550 each and then it’s $1000 initiation fee and about $1000 a year to be a TREB member. Also about $400 every other year for RECO insurance. You can find a low cost brokerage to just ‘park your license’

As far as difficulty goes for the tests.. I spent $70 on notes I bought off kijiji and just studying those was enough for me to get 85% on my first test, 96% on my second and a 76% on my third test.

It took me just over 4 months. I was at the mercy of the test dates. Reason for the low mark on the 3rd test is that I was studying high and I also booked a trip to Jamaica, moved out of my condo and then wrote the test.

If you can calculate the square footage of a room you’ll be fine on the first test. It was funny because I wrote my test in the afternoon and I heard people coming out of the morning exam complaining about how hard the math was.

I could have been stoned out of my skull, looked over my kijiji notes twice and would have passed that first test.
I’m not apart of any real estate board right now because I don’t want to pay the fees.
Shoot me an email if you want those notes!

#37 Timmy on 01.08.17 at 7:11 pm

Come on, $900K for that first piece of sh*&$t? It is still way overvalued. That thing would probably sell for less than $300K in any other city in Canada.

#38 Timmy on 01.08.17 at 7:13 pm

When you look at Calgary, most people come here for a good paying job in the oil patch or related industry–not for the weather or the culture, so with most of the good paying jobs disappearing and nothing on the horizon, then why is it still over half a million for a modest house in a nice neighborhood?

#39 Smoking Man on 01.08.17 at 7:15 pm

#36 G on 01.08.17 at 6:54 pm
With leaders like Putin and Trump in this world, it is scarry to have a baby sheep running this country.

Baby sheep is much to complimentary. More like a cross eyed, albino dwarf ant, unsure if it’s a bitch or a dude.

#40 Chris on 01.08.17 at 7:18 pm

If anyone is interested in the raw data, here’s a link to my google document:

Please note that not all those homes sold January 6th; that was just when I found GTA Sold View

#41 Smoking Man on 01.08.17 at 7:20 pm

#35 G on 01.08.17 at 6:51 pm
Great post as usual Garth.

Justy the Kid snubbing Trump’s inauguration is amateur and stupid.
With a couple of tweets Trump can sink the Canadian economy as fast as the Canafian deficit is growing.

Put trump on your twitter watch list. Have your favorate trading platform open. On almost any tweet he’s dising a company

Fortunes can be made instantly with a quick short.

Been there done that. Bet that book would sell on here

#42 For those about to flop... on 01.08.17 at 7:21 pm

Hey Chris, here is some fresh blood that is being spilt in the Burnaby snow.

I know we are supposed to avoid the yellow snow ,but the pink snow these homeowners are now eating can’t taste that good either…


4289 Parker st Burnaby
Oct 24:$2,000,000
Jan 7: $1,800,000
Change: – 200000.00 -10%

6959 Joffre Avenue, Burnaby
Oct 15:$1,200,000
Jan 7: $1,100,000
Change: – 100000.00 -8%

8724 Gilley Avenue, Burnaby
Oct 31:$1,188,000
Jan 7: $999,999
Change: – 188001.00 -16%

7005 Ridge Drive, Burnaby
Oct 24:$2,780,000
Jan 7: $2,649,000
Change: – 131000.00 -5%

#43 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 01.08.17 at 7:24 pm


In the Canadian “supreme court of economic selfie-dom” I await with much anxious interest how T2’s crew will be “dealing with the Americans” when the re-opening of the NAFTA Treaty begins…apparently soon.

Sure, I know that VP Joe Biden met recently with Mr. Trudeau in Ottawa and told him that he, Trudeau, was the main bulwark of the current philosophy of “one world” or whatever with political boundaries becoming needless as the world slides into a marvellous genderless future with a pure and clean David Suzukian green climate all bolstered by enforced Political Correctness: life, love, taxes. Lots of taxes.

If Mr. Trudeau is indeed the “last man (oops person!) standing” then CAN he actually “turn” the incoming Trumpster tsunami away from its promised Make America Great Again course? Of course he can’t.

Retiring President Obama’s failed economic and foreign policies of war-just-about-everywhere (the US has special forces operating in 138 countries currently) has come acropper, and Mr. Trump is the result. Clear and simple.

Amongst numerous proposed courses of action, the Trumpsters are ALSO on an economic isolationist course, a home-spun American “thing”, that has been a fixture of American history at various times since their Revolutionary War. American isolationism results from lengthy home-grown economic/military torpor and the need to “rejig” the country’s aims and objectives. This work is already underway.

For example, up until the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour in 1941, then Democratic Party President Roosevelt had one helluva time trying to persuade US legislators to abandon their isolationist foreign policies and join the war against Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, and fight alongside the Soviet Union, Britain, Canada, and so on. After Pearl it was a slamdunk and the Yanks were “there”.

So we see a return of “aloneness” with Trump; and the ECONOMIC part of this protectionism will be unforgiving especially for Mexico and Canada. China and others will be dealt with later.

Mr. Trudeau must stop with his silly selfie-ness and find some heavy-duty negotiators (as I have mentioned here before) , to meet the Yankee Traders at the NAFTA bargaining table. If not, then the bargaining will be a slamdunk for the Yanks and he’ll come away looking like a plucked chicken.

Mexico’s president already must feel like that and maybe Mr. Trudeau could phone him and ask him how it feels. Now THAT would make a lousy selfie, eh?

Check out the names of those proposed Trump cabinet secretaries and advisors who are lined up, brass knuckles in plain sight, who’ll be blowing into our town with God-knows what on their agendas. They have financial and investment experience that few Canadian capitalists could ever hope to have. Such a shame our business class is so spineless.

One of two outcomes will result for this still-new Liberal administration: a temporary “David’s” victory against the American “Goliath” or Mr. T’s political sawn-song and a well deserved retirement in 2019 or whenever.

Put it this way, the Yanks will only relent when they’ve gotten their way. Already the soft-wood lumber nightmare has come back to life. And those planned American car makers’ expansion plans in Ontario may diminish somewhat? Hope not.

As St. Garth of Hard Times To Come has noted repeatedly, we are woefully incapable of handling the future never mind the right-now; too much debt and entitlement.

I’m not trying to elicit any humour or chuckles here; this is more of a warning of Things To Come.


#44 Context on 01.08.17 at 7:35 pm

T2 messed up from day one as is no politician or leader and never will be. His handlers are out to lunch and we are so screwed by it all. In the middle of a cold winter he tours the country having tea and cookies with small groups, but Atlantic Canada is not on his agenda. This will not end well as this acorn didn’t fall from the same tree.

#45 dosouth on 01.08.17 at 7:36 pm

So our BC Assessments came out this week. Everyone crowing about how “their property” has risen in value. Can’t tell any of them that these were values from last July and don’t adjust until next July at which time you’ll be whining about the losses.

Of course the Regional Districts, city’s and town’s will be raking in the taxes on your increases but won’t be lowering them in the forthcoming years…see who is crowing then.

#46 Stock Picker on 01.08.17 at 7:39 pm

Article in the Van Sun this am about China attributing the blame to house price increases around the world on HAM sending money out of China…almost one trillion worth. Read and eat crow HAM deniers. China just brought the hammer down….the idea that the 15% CD tax had any thing to do with a slowdown is bogus because this all had to do with China bolting the door after the horse had already bolted. Don’t make the local news your only source of info

#47 Self Directed on 01.08.17 at 7:53 pm

Yeah sorry, Garth. The Vet is wrong on some of these price drops. Home prices are dropping, but not that much!

3312 CHURCH ST, sold for $846,000 on 01MAR2015, and was assessed in July 2016 at $1,352,000. It was either pulled off the market, or it sold for somewhere around the last price reduction of 1.79M. They definitely did not get over asking. Those days are done.

#48 pathcontrolmonk on 01.08.17 at 7:55 pm

“…realtor-inspired FOMO using Chinese dudes as the catalyst for panic buying.”

Garth, almost seems like you are almost blaming money from the PRC? Almost. Is this one of your 2017 resolutions?

#49 Smoking Man on 01.08.17 at 8:04 pm

The human mind. Why does it do the shit it does.

Last year I was on my death bed. Serious alcohol poison. Told everyone it was a bad reaction to flu shot or flu pill can’t remember the lie.

I’m decending fast. Notice my posts are getting shorter and dumber. Bozze really frys the brain. Smoking is the desert.

I’ve never smoked so much or drank so much. Honestly I’ve never been in a more content place.

Now is that not fkd up or what.

Shrinks? What’s wrong with me?

#50 NoName on 01.08.17 at 8:06 pm

#37 Insider on 01.08.17 at 6:58 pm

is that you HRC?
Funny out of religions you have to pick christianity, you son of a motherless goat.


#51 joey joe joe on 01.08.17 at 8:08 pm

@ #37 Insider

…uhhhh ok?

#52 Polls R Phake on 01.08.17 at 8:09 pm

Breaking news. The Russians have hacked the Global Warming in 49 of 50 US States:

#53 Okanagan Man on 01.08.17 at 8:18 pm



“as Garth says” so are you trying to quote our esteemed host to give yourself more credibility?

Garth also says there will be no Crash, which is completely opposite of what you have been spewing for years now.

#54 Timmy on 01.08.17 at 8:31 pm

Why is residential real estate in Calgary only down 4% with all of the job losses and over 10 percent unemployment? Is it because people’s severance packages have not run out yet?

#55 X on 01.08.17 at 8:32 pm

Please let the US economy continue to grow, then rates can normalize, and we can end this RE madness up here.

The gov’t should have done more to protect the sheeple buying houses from themselves. People don’t even consider anything when buying, as houses always go up. It is no loose to them.

#56 Gary on 01.08.17 at 8:34 pm

Re #49 BC Stockpicker…. Of course, anyone who can pay cash for a house in Vancouver would just shrug off a 15% tax. Now Christy Clark, the puppet of developers is so desperate to get re-elected she comes up with the stupidest idea of giving interest free loans to goose the market. What an idiot.

#57 For those about to flop... on 01.08.17 at 8:36 pm

Pink snow in Richmond too..


2220 No. 4 Road, Richmond
Nov 22:$968,000
Jan 8: $799,000
Change: – 169000.00 -17%

31-9651 Dayton Avenue, Richmond
Dec 4:$945,000
Jan 8: $788,000
Change: – 157000.00 -17%

#58 Smoking Man on 01.08.17 at 8:36 pm

Real estate.

Supply and Demand animals. .

Right or left
Top or bottom
Poker or oraphase
Black or white
One’s or zeros

It’s all there.

Life boils down to a boolean.

Fork in the road.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD of everything.

#59 Pete on 01.08.17 at 8:46 pm

“So the long and the short of it is the bible condones polygamy, the church does not and they hid the texts in the bible for years and still don’t endorse them.”
Yes, men themselves decided that polygamy was to be abolished. In a polygamous world, 1 man (the strongest Alpha) attracts the bulk of the women, lesser Alpha’s get a few wives each, and probably about half of the remainder of men get no wives at all. Abolishing polygamy levelled the playing field for all men. It was a move by men to ensure that they got a wife even if they weren’t really deserving of one.
Just another tidbit that feminists know nothing about; that’s why they don’t have a problem with having 3 different boyfriends in a one week period but get mad as hell the the thought of having 2 boyfriends concurrently. And if (insert celebrity name here) were allowed to have more than one wife it would greatly increase their chances of marrying the celeb. The one man-one woman value system they are so beholden to was actually a male construct all along.

#60 David McDonald on 01.08.17 at 8:47 pm

#17 mortgagebroker does have a point. Garth would be an excellent head of the PCs; certainly better than the announced alternatives.

The Conservatives lost the last election because of Harper’s mean spirited leadership not because of financial mismanagement. Trudeau’s government faces enormous challenges even without Trump complicating matters further. If the economy does it the wall in the next three years Canadians may want to fire the manager.

Garth has already dedicated a lot of time to public service but if he got the bug again I would vote for him and knock on doors as well.

#61 acdel on 01.08.17 at 8:48 pm

#57 Timmy

No, it’s because oil prices have doubled since the low days,natural gas prices are way up, Trump is going to approve another pipeline and the oil guys have slimmed down and are making money at these levels; the future is bright here in Alberta, much brighter once we get rid of the socialist!

#62 Smoking Man on 01.08.17 at 8:49 pm

When a random stranger has a beer with you, and says he’s a blog dog fan. If his last name is Shaw.

Buy him a beer, he works for CSIS. Keeping us safe.

Hence the Shaw brothers in my book.

True story.

#63 Smoking Man on 01.08.17 at 8:57 pm


#64 Leinad on 01.08.17 at 9:02 pm

If you urinate into the ocean does the water go up?

Remember Canada in the big picture has about that much influence on the world economic stage.

The only reason we have health care is because NATO (US) pays for our defense.

Canada is going to be taught a lesson here in servitude very soon as it obeys its’ Trump masters.

That’s also why Trudeau is pushing weed so much because people will need it ….it’s a drag though getting the munchies when you only have dog food to eat.

#65 Kevin Li on 01.08.17 at 9:03 pm

Wealthy Chinese have no problem with ‘getting money out’ and investing in what they want to.

The only thing THEY DON’T LIKE is a punitive and idiotic tax like what they got in Vancouver.

Take that tax away and Vancouver is up 40% in 2017.

Or keep it and see Markham right up the 404 go up 40% in 2017.

Actually that tax doesn’t even matter now that people see what the GTA has to offer.

#66 Context on 01.08.17 at 9:04 pm

#52 Smoking Man:- No problem as can direct you to San Juan Cosola in Mexico to stay at the temple resort there. They have a real Aztec Shaman who will take you into the sweat lodge every day for treatments and all will be well. Aztecs have a sacred prayer circle on site and come done from the mountains to dance to the Sun and Moon Gods at night by the lake. You can join them to usher in the 6th Sun.

#67 Maj on 01.08.17 at 9:06 pm

Trudeau not attending is no bigly. Most likely, he wasn’t even invited.
Harper didn’t attend Obama’s.
“Harper does not plan to attend Obama’s inauguration.

#68 S.Bby on 01.08.17 at 9:06 pm

If 3691 West 23rd was sold in October it would show on the BC Assessment data for 2016 and it does not show a sale in October.

#69 jay on 01.08.17 at 9:08 pm

Chinese are better at capitalism than we are, we can’t even afford to salt our street.Can you imagine in 10 year where China will be and where we’ll be economically.

#70 Melvin on 01.08.17 at 9:08 pm

3312 CHURCH STREET did not sell. It was listed at $849k 2 years ago. That was when it last sold. Garbage stats and very misleading. 3 homes in my neighbourhood 30 minutes east of Vancouver sold in December. They had been listed since the summer. No price reductions. Did not sell during the “peak” of the market, but all 3 sold for close to asking in December. We may have a surprise come this spring.

#71 Chaddywack on 01.08.17 at 9:08 pm

Meanwhile this November a neighbour’s house in east van sold for $1.25 million when the list was $1.2 million. No other offers.

Who goes $50k over asking with no competing offers on a house that was sitting there for 4 months with no action.

#72 Fish on 01.08.17 at 9:11 pm

I like wool, only thing is, with undo care, that’s when you can have some nasty trouble, it can shrink or unravel

#73 Sponge on 01.08.17 at 9:11 pm

Still a good man for the job…

#74 S.Bby on 01.08.17 at 9:13 pm

How about this: Cambie & 19th area 33 foot lot with 100 year old house listed Oct 2015 $2288800 sold Nov 1 $2175000 assessed 2016 $2368000 so sold around 9% or so under 2016 assessment. Not bad since they paid $425000 for it in 2002.

#75 45north on 01.08.17 at 9:14 pm

MLS Home Price Index Composite Greater Vancouver % Change

key phrase is % Change. The chart doesn’t show that Vancouver prices are going down, just that the rate of increase is going down but it won’t be long before prices go down.

This Week in Money: Ross Kay starting at the 10:00 minute mark. BC’s Home Price Assessment is Mathematically Flawed and Home Owners can Appeal

BC Assessment makes its assessment based on comparable houses and that is the basis of an appeal.
Ross Kay goes on at length about benchmark home prices but that has nothing to do with an appeal. From a legal perspective, BC Assessment is in good shape. From a political perspective the BC Liberals are not because real estate prices will be in decline for the election ( May 2017 ).

Linda: Depending on just how the mill rate is set we might see an actual reduction in the amount of property tax we pay in 2017.

I’m thinking you’ll pay more for the same reason that outlying commercial properties will pay more: the City needs the money. If downtown commercial properties pay less tax then everybody else pays more.

The same reasoning applies to Vancouver: Vancouver City runs on a budget, if property values go up then City Council will reduce the mill rate. The City will run as many sql queries against the BC Assessment data base as it wants. Before it sets the mill rate.

#76 DON on 01.08.17 at 9:15 pm

Hudac should stop talking – he has blinders on and will be the last RE remembered as pumping the industry.

Thanks for the negative press Justin T, expect Trump to remember. Political Scientists must be hand in palm at the event. What is the reason for his snubbing?

Dear President Trump. He does not speak for all of us. Congrats. Please don’t punish us.

#77 Maj on 01.08.17 at 9:23 pm

Garth, Is this type of name calling of our PM acceptable here:
#41 Smoking Man
Baby sheep is much to complimentary. More like a cross eyed, albino dwarf ant, unsure if it’s a bitch or a dude.

#78 S.Bby on 01.08.17 at 9:29 pm

#44 Flop
Burnaby prices are still dropping by $1000 a day and have been for the last 6 months. The place near me that sold for 1.9 last June they couldn’t get 1.5 for now.

#79 Domingo on 01.08.17 at 9:30 pm

As an active but holding-my-cards-for-the-moment house buyer in Vancouver I can attest to a 10-20% correction having taken place in SFD in Vancouver West and near-East. Only one property I’ve been tracking since September has has sold for asking. I’ve seen almost as many listings pulled due to inactivity as closing. I can only wonder how long hold-out sellers can continue to hold
on to the values in their minds. Life forces people’s hands.

A nice 1997 Main and 25th area house had been listed since August at 2.25. In October they dropped to 2.125. November I offered a very reasonable 1.7, which they didn’t take. The property has since been de-listed.

#80 Smoking Man on 01.08.17 at 9:31 pm

I adopted Wyeet. Crazy dog. Spent to much nights in a cage with rabits and cats. I love him.

Gus, my arch enimy at senica ..we fought. Got him a life time ban a year ago. Archives.

He’s back. So is his kid. I talked tonight with his kid
Kids a beauty. A bit mental but a good kid.

See we are not always right.

#81 acdel on 01.08.17 at 9:38 pm

Off topic or is it?

Is this right or wrong; how does it differ from the one’s to admit to not paying taxes, including !!!

You be the judge, democracy in action!

#82 Ret on 01.08.17 at 9:43 pm

Trump won’t kill our trade with the US. We can blame Trump, but businesses leave when their competitors do or they risk going under themselves.

There is no safety net for businesses or corporations. No one cared about the collapse of the steel industry and no one cares about the Canadian auto sector either.

Taxpayers took a bath on that GM stock bailout. No Government will want a repeat of that fiasco with any Canadian or foreign corporation operating here. There are no sacred cows.

The US voted for change. We voted for more debt, the herb, selfies and donut shop meet and greets across the land with Liberal faithfuls posing as “real” Canadians. Fake news or what?

Canada is not competitive in the global economy but we are totally okay with that because everyone wants to live here. Seeya at the donut shop. Party on dudes!

#83 MF on 01.08.17 at 9:46 pm

It’s okay we don’t want T2 at the inauguration since he and everything he “stands for” is an embarrassment.


#84 conan on 01.08.17 at 9:46 pm

#52 Smoking Man on 01.08.17 at 8:04 pm

I will waive the normal 5 cent fee. Ahem,……… your tolerance to these poisons is off the charts. One day your body will say: ” Yo Smoking man, F this poo, I do not want to do this anymore.”

The End.

#85 Long-Timer Lurker on 01.08.17 at 9:46 pm

Hi, Garth. It’s me again.

I like you so I sometimes drop hints but I don’t like the peanut gallery so I try to be ambiguous. I feel like a little fun, tonight, so I’ll drop you some clues.

Riddle me this, Garth-man….

1. QE1, QE2, QE3… QE4 or ?

2. The U.S. Fed raises rates. What happens to emerging markets U.S. loans?

3. Brexit. What’s Next-it?

4. Trump’s a loose cannon. Period.

Do your homework, peanut gallery. I’ve been doing mine for over twenty years.

#86 Smoking Man on 01.08.17 at 9:53 pm

Being crazy when your not famous.

Sort of sucks. Cause your realy crazy.
When you make it on looonssy. You cañ be pm or

#87 conan on 01.08.17 at 10:12 pm

Lol at all you people slamming the Liberals.

Conan<—— Not missing Captain Harper of the SS Reformed-Titanic.

#88 JSS on 01.08.17 at 10:26 pm

Isn’t Trump supposed to get Kid Rock and Ted Nugent as musicians for his inauguration?

#89 Fleabitten Monkey on 01.08.17 at 10:33 pm

Anyone “Vet” the docs research. Doesn’t seem entirely plausible.

#90 ANON on 01.08.17 at 10:39 pm

There is no spoon, and that means a lot of imaginary silverware just went back to wealth Heaven, where it came from.
Feeling faint also about how the seemingly logical explanations, which no one questions (or if they do, they get off the rails blaming anything from lizards to aliens), include “wiping out”, “vaporized”, “lost”, for something that can be proven mathematically that it was not there in the first place.
3+ double shots should take care of it, though. I highly recommend it. :)

#91 Stock Picker on 01.08.17 at 10:40 pm

#57 Tim…right on point. Deer in the headlight of a runaway train.

Funny thing though….about history rhyming …. in the 60’s crash real estate tanked and the stock market boomed…then a recession… the 70’s crash real estate tanked and the stock market soared….then crashed…followed by another ugly recession ( and a pitiful Liberal govt creating Canada’s current massive national debt in response) then by 80 , just when it looked like things were recovering and real estate had a little run….the 80s real estate market crashed hard….down over 50% for 6 years……and the stock market boomed leaving real estate investors in the dust….followed by another crash and extra nasty recession (liberals and NDP again) until 86 when China stormed Hong Kong and real estate spiked (HAM Flood) only to crash a death of a thousand cuts from 90 until 2000…..while enjoyed another nasty recession with both stocks and real estate in the toilet for almost a decade.

Now here are, after the most egregious interference by govt wonks in 300 years….facing a real real crash …a stock market boom….and facing what looks like a self inflicted recession in Canada to rival the worst we’ve ever had…..and again straddled with an incompetant Liberal nutcase at the helm. What gives? It looks like we’re just suckers for punishment.

Personally I downsized years ago, keep only a pied a terre for family use when we infreqntly visit….but I’m balls to wall on this Trump win….doubling my money every two years….and don’t give a toothpick for real estate values…..except I will encourage my son to buy in five or eight years time when the coming recession sucks the juice out of this country…..cause folks….it may be the same as before but it certainly rhymes.

#92 Fish on 01.08.17 at 10:48 pm

Yes.. LaLaLand!!!!

#93 Fleabitten Monkey on 01.08.17 at 10:50 pm

33 vreu – I suspect it will take the better part of 18 months before Vic starts to enter any type of correction. And that will only be up to 20 percent max over a lengthy period. Victorians seem literally asleep to what goes on economically outside “the island”. They are all a little smug right now given the surge that happened over the past year ironically on the heels of the capital flight from Vancouver. It will take a while for folks there including the buyers to understand the coupling of the two markets historically (Vic has been 40-50 percent of vans prices over the last decade). Once van falls Vic has to follow suit though it will lag van by many months and probably a year or more.

#94 The predicament - MASHDEX on 01.08.17 at 10:58 pm

[…] Read more here:: […]

#95 Ronaldo on 01.08.17 at 11:19 pm

#88 Long Time Lurker

”Do your homework, peanut gallery. I’ve been doing mine for over twenty years.”
No wonder you didn’t get past grade 8. I hated homework too but it didn’t take me that long to get it done. I knew a guy whose best 5 years in school was grade 3. Funny thing is he became a millionaire. Shows to go you. Don’t need much schooling to get rich. Anyway, good luck on your next assignment. Hope you get it done sooner than the last one.

#96 DON on 01.08.17 at 11:30 pm

#49 Stock Picker on 01.08.17 at 7:39 pm

Article in the Van Sun this am about China attributing the blame to house price increases around the world on HAM sending money out of China…almost one trillion worth. Read and eat crow HAM deniers. China just brought the hammer down….the idea that the 15% CD tax had any thing to do with a slowdown is bogus because this all had to do with China bolting the door after the horse had already bolted. Don’t make the local news your only source of info
China starting cracking down at least a year ago. Reports of party officials leaving suicide notes asking for their love ones to remain safe. Your are right!

The ruling faction cannot be seen by the mass populace as endorsing corruption and embezzlement. This could induce a revolution as orders fizzle.

#97 Metaxa on 01.08.17 at 11:34 pm

How many inaugurations did Harper go to?

#98 Alvina Knows on 01.08.17 at 11:47 pm

#91 JSS on 01.08.17 at 10:26 pm

[i]Isn’t Trump supposed to get Kid Rock and Ted Nugent as musicians for his inauguration?[/i]

I heard Putin’s gift to Trump was to allow Pussy Riot to perform.

#99 Peg City Bye Bye! on 01.08.17 at 11:59 pm

Thanks for all the great info and entertainment over the years!

Partner and I are mid-30s, no debt, 1 kid, 1 on the way. We bought a beater in tha hood in 2009 for 100K. Left for Deadmonton in 2015, kept the house just in case things didn’t work, renting a bungalow for 1500/mo in Old Strathcona. Watched the trumped up yields after the election and we pulled the trigger, sold for 142K back in Dec.

Are we gonna buy again??? Hell no! We’ve been watching these slow moving train wreck here for just over a year. I can’t help but cheer every listing price drop in our neighbourhood. We’ve watched houses listed at 575K finally sell for 450K after 12 months on the market! Still lots of room to drop yet.

We’ll have about 150K in our RRSPs and TFSAs.

#100 SI2K on 01.09.17 at 12:13 am

We saw a bully offer on a 1996 bung in our Guelph neighborhood a couple weeks ago. Listed at $549K, sold within 48 hrs. SFH listings are tight. Tiny moving trucks with matched shirt movers are showing up frequently from Toronto – folks with toddler and baby. Larger multigenerational families feeling the squeeze in Mississauga are also showing up. The new 5:48 Go train (as of September) is quite full. We think we should acquire the Honest Ed’s sign for our street and be done with it.

#101 Trump happens on 01.09.17 at 12:25 am

Before Trump even gets to look at Canada, he will have many more fight on his hands. Expect the political climate down south to become increasingly ugly, stock markets to drop, whether we see 20k next week or not, interest rates to be contained by the uncertainty created and Canada’s real estate to continue to be viewed as a safe haven by international investors.

Almost certain now that the 15% Vancouver tax will be swallowed by the market and we won’t see any larger drop (10 % was a given, the moment the tax took effect). How do I know? I look at numbers and trends objectively, which apparently not many posting here are capable of doing.

So come May, when you are proven wrong, you will know that it was not due to some market fluke, but it was your own stu.. err fault.

#102 ulsterman on 01.09.17 at 12:44 am

#44 Flop
This house near me in N Burnaby is listed at 1.2m. A much worse house on the same street was listed 6 months ago for $1.5m and i remember thinking who on earth would pay that for a 1956 house on such a busy street. Clearly no one!

#103 april on 01.09.17 at 12:46 am

#59 – Read Ross Kay at re 37.5 loan. Dated Jan 7/2017

#104 yorkville renter on 01.09.17 at 12:52 am

too many angry people on here… I mean, there always has been, but it seems to be getting worse.

people, relax and enjoy life a little. take responsibility for your life and dont blame everyone else.

also… is it me or does Hudak keep taking the reins of things right before that very thing goes down in flames? yikes.

#105 Mark on 01.09.17 at 1:24 am

Sounds an awfully lot like the assignment “flippers” (remember “Khalid” anyone) are behind this. The ‘values’ were never real, they were merely manipulations of the sort very familiar to those who know of the old-timers in the Vancouver Stock Exchange boiler rooms.

“Wealthy Chinese have no problem with ‘getting money out’ and investing in what they want to.”

Too bad there’s almost no evidence of Chinese participation in Vancouver’s RE market, and definitely little to no actual ‘money’ from offshore. Before or after the tax. Garth has been over this many times.

#106 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.09.17 at 1:27 am

#68 Kevin Li on 01.08.17 at 9:03 pm

Wealthy Chinese have no problem with ‘getting money out’ and investing in what they want to.

The only thing THEY DON’T LIKE is a punitive and idiotic tax like what they got in Vancouver.

Take that tax away and Vancouver is up 40% in 2017.

Or keep it and see Markham right up the 404 go up 40% in 2017.

Actually that tax doesn’t even matter now that people see what the GTA has to offer.


Cool. I guess you’ll have no problem if the locals gather your info and send it back to the Chinese government. :)

#107 No Mercy on 01.09.17 at 1:37 am

#29 leinad on 01.08.17 at 6:26 pm

You are a racist. I know plenty of Belrus, Ukrainian and Russian entrepreneurs that came over during the transition of USSR to separate countries.

Most are good people, very hard working and educated.

If this was my blog, I’d have DELETED this entry.

#108 paulo on 01.09.17 at 1:38 am

get with the reality,put in context all this concern with Trump is all smoke and mirrors when was last time any politician ,American Canadian, European or Martian actually followed through on there election platform?
Yep… this guy aside from being a “character” is a business man very successful in fact ,knows the game and how to play it ,at this point you don’t change the spots on this leopard. when the day is said and done you may see some common sense adjustments to policy, but he is not going to significantly upset or change the playing field its working well for the Americans as is.
reasonably certain he understands the concept of “don’t fix something not broken”

#109 NEVER GIVE UP on 01.09.17 at 1:43 am


If you insult the Americans you will pay Billions and Billions for it.

You wont even know it is happening to you.

Remember the Lib Gov that was constantly name calling some American officials as Stupid and other much worse and un-parliamentary names?

We were trying to get a deal on Softwood all through those years costing us Billions every year. When Harper got power they signed on Day One of his term.

We had a ruling in our favor but they still would not sign largely because the gov in power here was hostile to them.

#110 Stock Picker on 01.09.17 at 2:29 am

#99 Don…yes….over the past three years China has signed 62 extradition treaties and has only recently nailed Liberal politicians into submission….what they offered Junior no one knows….as secret as his ‘Christmas’ with the Aga Khan.

But the flow of HAM money was well reported internationally…but suspiciously defended by naysayers in Canada. China is actively chasing down the illegals who looted entire provinces of billions…and the small fry like Mayor Moonbeams mother in law who suck millions into multiple properties in Vancouver. She’ll spend decades behind bars for her crime of looting the city of Harbin….schools, hospitals, charities….verything that was nailed down….she even sold state owned buildings….and the money flowed into Canadian banks and real estate through corrupt means without our own Fintrac or CRA raising a finger to question the source….China has been screaming at Canada and other countries….but its protests never show up in our media….mighty suspicious for a country which supposedly respects the law.

Hey….last time I flew though YVR there were CBSA agents shaking down grandmas and nannies in the bordering lounge for undeclared cash. Why hasnt big bad Canada ever asked where these Chinese billions originated? As here…we want to know if it is the proceeds of crime…..shame shame Canada.

#111 fishman on 01.09.17 at 3:17 am

The word on the street here in Hongcouver, among folks that handle trust agreements,escrow money & title searches is that its taking a lot longer to get the money out. Recently some big money from China wanted to move on some mining property & needed 4 million to get started.. It took 3 months instead of 3 days for the transfer. Remembering, in China, tightening up on corruption means, how far up, are the big shots going with the lead in the head non compliance program?

A few months ago the Central Committee neutered the youth wing of the CCP. This is a big deal because this was where young smart Chinese would start their career in the universities with the Party. Meritocracy evolved with smart ambitious kids because they came up from the masses, excelled at school, joined the party & were taken into government. Why would the rulers block that stream of recruitment & go back to picking the descendants of Mao’s long march? Their also purging the army. The modern Chinese way:lower echelon officers get equivalent of Uber taxi licenses, Upper echelon get cash, up to a few millions for a general. Paranoia of the proletariat? Internal discontent? Trusted members only can deliver for the coming crackdown?

Its a mugs game to predict the CCP’s action for currency controls. Money’s always going to squeeze out of China but looking like dribs & drabs instead of gushers for awhile.

Wait & see attitude in Van town so far. No collapse. Going to be millions of tourists in B.C. this summer. Jeez, it seems too many now with all the great skiing. Last summer province was plugged. Insane this year. From all over the world their coming & many many will say “boring,beautiful,clean ,expensive, safe is good.” “I want to live here. Where do I sign?”

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.09.17 at 8:20 am

@#47 Leonoid
“The only reason we have health care is because NATO (US) pays for our defense.”

Standing too close to the melted reactor in Chernobyl again Leonard?
On the upside.
You stay warm without having to light a campfire.
But then , there is the wolves…….

#113 james on 01.09.17 at 8:21 am

Tim Hudak? LOL.

Yet another conservative idiot hypocrite who preaches “free markets, blah, blah, blah” yet has never held any consistent employment away from the government trough. From his 20s, no less. Pathetic.

Just like that moron Mike Harris, who worked for a few weeks as a ski bum before getting his government job, then made a lucrative career telling everyone how government was bad, then cashing in on some board appointments from his government contacts.

Or Trump, who worked hard to inherit millions, before blowing most of it – he would be far richer today if he’d just put his daddy’s money into index funds.

Why are conservatives such frauds?

Why are their supporters so easily duped?

#114 Scott Reynolds on 01.09.17 at 8:33 am

Canada, where everyone can own a million dollar home – unfortunately they all look like $100k houses.

#115 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.09.17 at 8:39 am

Great post btw…

I’ve been doing basically the same as Chris the vet, for Richmond Hill… My findings:

After astronomical gains over the last 2 years, the prices of crappy bungalows in the Bayview and Major Mac area have now become stagnant. They have been stuck at 1.1 – 1.4 Million since the beginning of the year.

Here’s one that just sold for $1,275,000 after 65 days on market:

I have a family member who just sold one of these over ask for 1.3 in the spring. Sold in less than a week. Multiple offers. Looks like he got out right at the top.

While only anecdotal, it appears that prices have stopped rising, and are now sitting on the market for months as opposed to days…

#116 Grey Dog on 01.09.17 at 8:41 am

#68 Kevin Li,
What is in the sprawling Markham suburbia that the Chinese real estate client is attracted to? Vancouver is a much more beautiful location and a shorter flight to China, just wondering (yea yea no foreign tax outside of Vancouver but why Markham?).

#117 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.09.17 at 8:41 am

*since the beginning of last year (2016)

#118 earlybird on 01.09.17 at 8:51 am

#38 Mike Reminds me of RE school I took in 2003…$1100, exam included. accidently went out the night before the exam, had a 10 alarm hangover, probably still drunk and received a %92 for my trouble. Extremely easy course and good information, however 90% of sales are done by 10% of realtors…

#119 Grey Dog on 01.09.17 at 9:08 am

It really irks me these days that no one is playing back the news from 8 years ago outlining the melt down of Wall Street and here Obama is today handing over a DOW Jones shy of 20,000! Yet media is calling it a Trump Bump!?! I don’t think the correct President is getting the credit.

Wake me up in 5 years.

#120 Andrew t on 01.09.17 at 9:09 am

#52 Smoking Man on 01.08.17 at 8:04 pm
The human mind. Why does it do the shit it does.

Last year I was on my death bed. Serious alcohol poison. Told everyone it was a bad reaction to flu shot or flu pill can’t remember the lie.

I’m decending fast. Notice my posts are getting shorter and dumber. Bozze really frys the brain. Smoking is the desert.

I’ve never smoked so much or drank so much. Honestly I’ve never been in a more content place.

Now is that not fkd up or what.

Shrinks? What’s wrong with me?

Being a cynical romantic can get stressful at times. As your attorney I advise powerful hallucinogenics and a trip to the Super Bowl.

#121 Catalyst on 01.09.17 at 9:44 am

Why do you only focus on house prices? I know it’s a major asset but if I look at my monthly costs, taxes and food have skyrocketed without check. The world is just becoming very costly and while house prices may be high it at least accumulates wealth in private citizens rather than just governments and business.

#122 Grey Dog on 01.09.17 at 9:48 am

View of Real Estate in Unionville,
Neighbour sold my model of home for 1.6M$ Spring 2016, those prices held for other resales til late August.
Suddenly in early autumn prices spiked to 2.3M$, two more resales appear on the scene in December, and there these properties languish at similar price. For the first time in years a home is not sold within days…is this the end of the glory prices in Unionville?

If NOT sold by March Break at these insane prices, I believe bubble has BURST for my burb, yep, I think I’m hearing a slow leak right now.

#123 Glenn on 01.09.17 at 10:05 am

I was astonished when they started building Bow Tower in Calgary. I’m no real estate expert but even I could see they were building late in the cycle and that oil prices production was setting the stage for a fall.

Didn’t they understand the nature of Calgary’s boom-bust economy?

The only upside is super low rents which may encourage business to set up shop in Calgary and hopefully non-oil related.

#124 Alberta Ed on 01.09.17 at 10:17 am

Not to worry. Beavis has already dispatched Buttshead to Trumpville for ‘high level’ meetings with the transition team. And soon, Beavis is going on the road to meet some actual Canadians! Man of the People! Can’t wait!

#125 Capt. Serious on 01.09.17 at 10:25 am

Retiring President Obama’s failed economic

LOL. Comical. You realize GDP is up dramatically since the GFC, unemployment is at a low (matching pre GFC), and wage growth is at a 7 year high? You must define failure differently than the rest of us. (Not that I think administrations have anything to do with economic outcomes — with the possible exception of a flat out depression — but if we’re going to play this game, you might as well use the actual stats.)

#126 traderJim on 01.09.17 at 10:38 am

#110 no mercy

#29 leinad is being sarcastic (I hope). You know, how the US left and their media pals are trying to say Russia rigged the US election (after ridiculing the idea when Trump suggested it, and before their candidate lost).

These people are so delusional they would actually like to see a war with Russia that they were promised if Hillary got in.

You’ll hear lots of anti-Russia hysteria over the next 8 years. Even more than you’ve heard for the last 30 years.

The Dems have become the worst of the old time Republican party in their desperation. Not a winning strategy, but fun, if not a little scary, to watch.

#127 NoName on 01.09.17 at 10:44 am

Crazy, such a mean word, meñtally creative much better choice.

#128 Bat Flipper on 01.09.17 at 11:14 am

So all the news agencies say Toronto RE will be fine in 2017. Due to a lack of supply and enough demand to keep prices rising.

This blog says 80% of New buyers are having a very hard time with their housing plans, while moisters can’t save and need to downsize or move out of Toronto.

Probably, somewhat in between.

We are in a position where people won’t move, but people won’t buy either, then prices won’t subside until people can’t afford their homes.

In Vancouver, the sudden price decline has more to do with the foreign tax and vacant home tax.

The vacant home tax is not in force yet and local buyers are 92% of the market. — Garth

#129 Context on 01.09.17 at 11:29 am

There is an old saying that when you vote for a Peter Pan you get a Neverland.

#130 John jensen on 01.09.17 at 11:33 am

Heads of state are never invited and have never attended U.S. presidential inaugurations. Trudeau did NOT snub the inauguration. He was never invited. Usually only ambassadors to the U.S. and their wives are invited to the inauguration.

#131 Fed-up on 01.09.17 at 11:41 am

#117 Scott Reynolds on 01.09.17 at 8:33 am
Canada, where everyone can own a million dollar home – unfortunately they all look like $100k houses


Yes does anyone even remember what a million dollar home looked like in the GTA say a mere ten or twelve years ago? Certainly not the piles of crap and town homes you get now.

This place is a joke, a sad one at that.

#132 News from Guelph on 01.09.17 at 11:56 am

Guelph, ON is still smoking hot.

My friend recently sold his house in 1 week. 15k over asking.

House price to yearly rent ratio is around 27.

Makes sense to rent right now.

#133 Grey Dog on 01.09.17 at 12:22 pm

Justin is going to miss out on inaugural selfie opportunity!?! He also is not going to follow up environmental meeting…is he sick?

Do you think Vladimir Putin is going to sit in Justin’s seat? Or is he assigned a better seat just over the left shoulder of Trump?

#134 Renter's Revenge! on 01.09.17 at 12:52 pm

#126 Glenn on 01.09.17 at 10:05 am
I was astonished when they started building Bow Tower in Calgary. I’m no real estate expert but even I could see they were building late in the cycle and that oil prices production was setting the stage for a fall.

Didn’t they understand the nature of Calgary’s boom-bust economy?


I was thinking the same thing about the Bow Tower!

It reminds of this:

Of course, it could just be hindsight bias :)


#135 jess on 01.09.17 at 1:03 pm

I think it is more specific Russians ? …and it is “curious” as James Henry writes in this article regarding certain financial associates. I think after you read this see if you think differently.

150 Wall Street Firms Own Over $1.5 Billion of Trump’s Debt (wsj)

#136 jess on 01.09.17 at 1:52 pm

..”the involvement of UK tax havens in the alleged bribery scandal should act as a wake-up call for the British government. “This alleged corruption scandal is yet another example of how the opacity created by tax havens is used to fuel corruption and bribery around the world,” she said.

Records show that one of the UK-registered companies allegedly used to funnel the payments – Metastar, a limited liability partnership (LLP) now dissolved – was run by two “members”: Advance Developments Ltd and Corporate Solutions Ltd. Both firms, also now dissolved, were based in Belize and controlled a vast network of UK-registered LLPs, including one called Armut Services.
Documents filed with the Latvian courts allege that Armut helped siphon off $230m of funds paid by the hedge fund Hermitage Capital Management to the Russian treasury….The scandal involved an organised Russian criminal syndicate, the Klyuev Group, which, it is claimed, has stolen at least $800m from the Russian people with the aid of the Russian government.”

senator john mccain letter june 2012
Klyuev Group that attorney Sergei Magnitsky exposed
U.S. Sen. John McCain has called a “dangerous transnational criminal organization” that has “colluded with senior Russian officials to engage in bribery, fraud, embezzlement, company thefts, and other serious financial crimes.”

Klyuev Group
Panama Papers’ Russian Mob Connection
The trove of leaked documents has already revealed the billions swirling around Putin. Now a Swiss firm named in the papers appears to have links to Russian organized crime.
Michael Weiss

04.12.16 1:00 AM ET

#137 Mattl on 01.09.17 at 1:55 pm

My wife and I follow Port Moody pretty close and I don’t see any evidence of price reductions. Very few homes for sale, and even fewer selling but no evidence of 10 or 20 percent drops.

#138 Context on 01.09.17 at 2:05 pm

#135 News From Guelph:- There are very few detached homes for sale there, but there are some condos. A new luxury apartment building by a huge known apartment builder in Toronto has just been completed. They are in the process of accepting rental applications now.

#139 Context on 01.09.17 at 2:13 pm

Guelph: new apartment building almost finished taking rental applications now. 1 Bed $1,515; 1 Bed/Den $1,655; 2 Bed $1,860; 2 Bed/Den $2005 and they accept pets too.

#140 Ronaldo on 01.09.17 at 2:25 pm

#122 Grey Dog on 01.09.17 at 9:08 am

It really irks me these days that no one is playing back the news from 8 years ago outlining the melt down of Wall Street and here Obama is today handing over a DOW Jones shy of 20,000! Yet media is calling it a Trump Bump!?! I don’t think the correct President is getting the credit.

Wake me up in 5 years.
Should he also be given credit for doubling the debt from 10 trillion to 20 trillion?

#141 InvestorsFriend on 01.09.17 at 2:31 pm

Why Not Attack Trump Honestly?

James at 116 incorrectly asserted:

Or Trump, who worked hard to inherit millions, before blowing most of it – he would be far richer today if he’d just put his daddy’s money into index funds.

The bit about Trump being better off with the inheritance in an index fund has been debunked and in any case would have required he not spend any of the return. And it sure as heck would not have landed him in the White House.

Trump has had some subsidiaries go broke and left a lot of pain in his wake there.

But to suggest he has not ultimately done extremely well in business is delusional.

There is much to criticism about Trump including the fact that he is a pathological liar who won’t admit the truth even when it is on video for all to see (making fun of the disabled reporter, numerous sexist comments and poor treatment of women). He is also deeply unethical. He could potentially be charged with numerous crimes related to his foundation, Trump University, sexual assault, and probably tax evasion).

With all that material and more, based in truth, there is no need to falsely claim that he has not done extremely well in business or that he simply inherited his wealth.

Meanwhile the market has cheered his election. That cheering may soon end. Entertaining days lie ahead.

#142 Jonathan on 01.09.17 at 2:41 pm

#60 For those about to flop…

2220 No 4 Road Richmond

Was assessed at $634k when last sold (15/Apr/2016 for $826,500) –> 30% above assessment

Assuming there are no shady deals not recorded and that current sellers are the ones that originally bought in April 2016

Say they get their current asking price of $799k (net $775k after fees 7% on the 1st $100k and 2.5% on the rest), that represents a 6% loss in 9 months or 8% annualized, not taking into account carrying costs or opportunity costs of that chunk of money

Just want to get out of the market? Why would anyone willingly lose money like this? Need the cash?

#143 Noel on 01.09.17 at 2:43 pm

Lol, this is the crisis? Its finally happened? TO prices are up 20% last year, another 15% coming up in 2017.

Good luck to everyone still on the sidelines waiting for dat crash.

What crash? — Garth

#144 Polls R Phake on 01.09.17 at 3:00 pm

#108 Mark on 01.09.17 at 1:24 am

Too bad there’s almost no evidence of Chinese participation in Vancouver’s RE market, and definitely little to no actual ‘money’ from offshore. Before or after the tax. Garth has been over this many times.

Funniest post of the year so far. No evidence. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

#145 Just the facts Ma'am on 01.09.17 at 3:18 pm

I think some posts are misinterpreting the data on west coast real estate trends:

#1 Drop in sales does not equal drop in sale prices. There’s a shortage of reasonable-priced homes to buy, so home buyers are waiting.

#2 Drop in list prices does not equal drop in sale prices. Some listings have been delusional, looking for another 25% increase over what has already been gained, and for crap places. Those list prices have a long way to drop before actual sales values decline.

#146 Euro observer on 01.09.17 at 3:42 pm

Charging GT tax on carbon taxes.


#147 Just the facts Ma'am on 01.09.17 at 3:49 pm

#145. 222 No. 4 Road Richmond, I would guess the home has been seized by a Chinese bank for default on loans in China.

#148 For those about to flop... on 01.09.17 at 3:57 pm

Hey Jonathan, who knows what’s up with some of these houses.

I am watching to see what happens with this one not far from where I live.

They bought it for 1.4 after getting carried away in a bidding war as they were only asking 1.2.

The house, last time I looked was still the same seemingly waiting for demolition.

I suspect they are waiting to see what happens this spring, a new build would struggle to get 2 million ,which would be wasting their time so maybe they will sell as is sometime next year…


#149 For those about to flop... on 01.09.17 at 4:11 pm

A little present for Mattl at 140.

There is Pink Snow in Port Moody too…


1256 Ioco Road, Port Moody
Nov 11:$1,698,000
Jan 5: $1,488,000
Change: – 210000.00 -12%

58 Foxwood Drive, Port Moody
Nov 11:$1,488,000
Dec 27: $1,358,888
Change: – 129112.00 -9%

1407-295 Guildford Way, Port Moody
Nov 11:$519,000
Dec 21: $499,900
Change: – 19100.00 -4%

37-3295 Sunnyside Road, Port Moody
Nov 11:$948,000
Dec 18: $898,000
Change: – 50000.00 -5%

2104-400 Capilano Road, Port Moody
Nov 11:$695,000
Dec 13: $685,000
Change: – 10000.00 -1%

402-160 Shoreline Circle, Port Moody
Dec 4:$629,000
Dec 8: $599,000
Change: – 30000.00 -5%

#150 oncebittwiceshy on 01.09.17 at 4:35 pm

Just the facts Ma’am on 01.09.17 at 3:18 pm
I think some posts are misinterpreting the data on west coast real estate trends:

Well Ma’am, it might help you to review some of the facts on this link to a Vancouver Realtor. He doesn’t comment one way or the other on the market, he simply publishes the data.

Try and find a month where the sale price matched the list price.

The fact that you are concerned about the misinterpretation of facts is evidence enough of your occupation.

One year ago you wouldn’t have been here telling us that the bidding wars and huge sell over listing price announcements were misinterpreted.

Find a parachute.

#151 For those about to flop... on 01.09.17 at 4:48 pm

Here is another example of some flippers who could just break even or take a loss.

They purchased this house in late March for 1.518 and after doing a quick tidy up had it back on the market in August.

It was removed and some more time and money was spent on it and put back on the market for 1.788 and have recently reduced it by $20k to 1.768

I give examples of when houses go for crazy money over ask, but at the moment it is all one way traffic and a lot of people are about to get run over…


#152 Mattl on 01.09.17 at 4:52 pm

Flop – I assume those are decreases in listing proces. i should have been more clear, I haven’t seen any evidence that sale prices have declined. Wake me up when there is a livable SFH in Moody under 850k. At least back to 2014 prices. I won’t hold breath, this so called crash hasn’t had any impact on affordability as of yet. Blood in the streets? More like a limited number of homeowners slightly reducing their ridiculous asking prices .

#153 Mattl on 01.09.17 at 5:07 pm

Just looked up a few of those property’s. The two expensive homes haven’t sold in at least three years so no sale price to go by. The Sunnyside rd property sold March 2015 for 702k. When that house sells for 630k we can talk about prices being down 10%. Until then all these decreases are just in asking prices

#154 For those about to flop... on 01.09.17 at 5:36 pm

Hey Mattl, you sound a little frustrated so I just spent 10 minutes looking at property in Port Moody and sight unseen here is my opinion on what you should keep an eye on if you are a serious buyer.

I know you wanted Sfd but the town house at 92-2200 Panorama Dr should be watched as it has the space and seems in good condition.

The second one is a fixer upper at 211 Mount Royal Dr ,this place screams out to me as one to watch as I can see it going for a lot less in the spring.

Finally, the one I would be watching like a hawk is the place at 44 Alder Dr.It is roughly 10 years old and with time on market and a motivated seller this one could work its way down ,despite being over budget but less chance of being a money pit like the previous one.

I hope this helps, it might take a year or two to get what you want…


#155 For those about to flop... on 01.09.17 at 5:50 pm

Here’s a house in Port Moody they just took $150k off today…


#156 solo 604 on 01.09.17 at 9:35 pm

#157: “Hey Mattl, you sound a little frustrated…”

Ad hominems weaken your argument; don’t stoop.

Mattl is correct that Flop is confusing inflated asking prices with selling prices. Tri-cities selling prices are surprisingly resilient — perhaps partly because of the new Skytrain route opening up — though sales volume is way down.

I don’t have a bone in this fight. I bought years ago; my place can fall 50% in value and I’m fine.

#157 Tony on 01.09.17 at 9:55 pm

Re: #18 Rapier Wit on 01.08.17 at 6:07 pm

Gold (physical not gold stocks) and long term bonds look like a sure winner this year. Stocks are the most overvalued of all time past, present and future. Even the summer of 1929 was a better time to buy stocks than today. Remember he is the expert not you.

#158 For those about to flop... on 01.09.17 at 10:50 pm

#159 solo 604 on 01.09.17 at 9:35 pm
#157: “Hey Mattl, you sound a little frustrated…”

Ad hominems weaken your argument; don’t stoop.

Mattl is correct that Flop is confusing inflated asking prices with selling prices. Tri-cities selling prices are surprisingly resilient — perhaps partly because of the new Skytrain route opening up — though sales volume is way down.


Go back and read the post again .

You edited my post without concentrating on the most important part.

He is looking to buy and he is going to have to be patient.

I am trying to help the guy…


#159 Dan Stillman on 01.10.17 at 6:02 pm

U.S. dollar 3.9600% simple interest, or compound interest 4.7456% 10 year Israel bonds.