Expectant

Vlad’s a realtor in Toronto. “I am a big fan of yours and read your blog daily (nothing else to do),” he says, sealing his fate, “and although I agree with your general approach to building a well-balanced and diversified portfolio of liquid assets, I don’t always agree with your commentary on the Toronto real estate market.

“Full disclosure: I live in Toronto, work in real estate and own property here. I am by no means a perma bull on the Toronto housing market. A year ago or so I sold my house because I didn’t think the housing market can go any higher – it did and my parents aren’t happy. Late last year I re-entered the market by purchasing an old bungalow as I felt the need to own land as a hedge to prices going up.”

So Vlad took time Friday to pen a long email about Toronto houses going up forever since lots of young immigrants move there annually, and the local economy doesn’t suck – as it does in Vancouver, Edmonton, Halifax, Montreal or one of those other small, regional cities full of boring locals. (This is how Toronto people think.)

“I agree with you on many fronts and I am well aware of the inverse relationship between mortgage rates and home prices, until recently we were in a 30 year bull market in debt. That said, there are offsetting fundamentals that should provide support to Toronto’s housing market.”

As I explained here yesterday, this may be true to an extent. Supply and demand are totally screwed up. Cheap money, voracious bankers, helicopter parents, financial illiteracy, risk-averse Millennials and migration have created the momma of housing demand. But homeowner greed and a growing inability to move have shrunk supply. That’s why prices are stupid. And cannot remain at current levels.

This brings us to interest rates. And markets. Along with Trump, and excess. What’s making people with financial assets happy these days is destined to make real estate bulls unhappy. Yup, it might actually be different this time, Vlad.

There’s no denying the US is hot. Like Mariah-Carey-in-a-glitter-jumpsuit-too-cranked-to-sing hot. Look at the jobs numbers – another 156,000 last month bringing the annual total to 2.16 million, coming atop 2.7 million new hires in 2015. (And Trump supporters bought into that junk about employment withering.) More important, people are making more money. Wages surged 2.9% year/year, compared with zilch in Canada. The best showing in seven years.

More people working making more money means more consumer spending, higher stock prices, inflationary pressures, a budding wage-price spiral and, yes Vlad, higher interest rates. That’s why stocks have been going up (the Dow ‘s a whisper from 20,000 since this all spells more economic growth), the US dollar rallied again and gold pooped. The recession that plagued the last eight years is over. Kaput. Looks like the Fed will pull the rate trigger again in 2017 twice or (increasingly likely) three times.

Meanwhile in Canuckistan, signs our economic torpor may be ending. Over 80,000 full-time jobs were added in December – an astonishing number, and the biggest job gush in five years. (But over 30,000 part-time positions were lost, so the next gain was about 53,000 – still a big win.) At the same time we’ve seen some good trade numbers, plus an escalating amount of inflation, thanks to a dollar stuck in the mid-seventy cent range. All this guarantees the Bank of Canada will not be dropping its key rate, and this blog is still betting its Stanfields the next rate move in this frosty, salt-deprived nation will be up.

After all, if the Fed increases two or three times in 2017, the premium over Canadian rates will be substantial, potentially kicking the stuffing out of our currency. Not good. Especially now that we know the T2 government lied during the election campaign and (a) the budget will not balance itself, (b) we won’t be solvent by the next election, (c) Canada will still be running deficits in 2050 and (d) the national debt will soar past $1 trillion. And just imagine the impact if the Trumpster does to the Canadian auto assembly business what he just did to Mexico’s.

In short, Vlad, this is one volatile world we’ve walked into. To assume the country’s last remaining bubbly real estate market will remain that way even as mortgage costs increase, national finances rot and Yanks change the rules is, well, realtor fantasy. Especially when we’ve just come through seven years of historic increases, as interest rates descended to record lows.

The rate bottom has passed. Sure, Toronto houses can cost more in the Spring because there’s an deep pool of greater fools. But to expect incomes and immigration will push the string tighter is naïve. Not so long ago nobody in Vancouver believed prices could fall. They are. Ditto Calgary. And Edmonton. Regina, Winnipeg and Saskatoon. Soon, add Victoria to the list.

As this pathetic blog has said, no crash, but no joy. There are years of change ahead. Enjoy the bung. You may be there awhile.

113 comments ↓

#1 Owe Canada on 01.06.17 at 6:23 pm

The borrowing and spending binge by Canadian households, businesses and governments (all levels) continues unabated. Growing the debt in the economy significantly faster than the economy itself grows seems to have developed into a way of life in Canada.

At the end of September, 2016 the total debt outstanding in Canada (bottom line of the Statistics Canada credit market summary data table) was $7.18 trillion. At the end of September, 2015 the total debt outstanding was $6.83 trillion. In the one year period from the end of September, 2015 to the end of September, 2016 it increased by $355 billion. This is an increase of 5.2%.

The approximate beginning of the global financial crisis was June, 2007. At the end of June, 2007 the total debt outstanding was $3.99 trillion. In the last 9-1/4 years it has increased by $3.19 trillion. This is an increase of 80%.

Looking at the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors (17th line up from the bottom of the credit market summary data table):

At the end of September, 2016 the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors was $5.1 trillion. At the end of September, 2015 the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors was $4.85 trillion. In the one year period from the end of September, 2015 to the end of September, 2016 it increased by $250 billion. This is an increase of 5.1%.

At the end of June, 2007 the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors was $2.84 trillion. In the last 9-1/4 years it has increased by $2.26 trillion. This is an increase of 79.5%.

The start date of this Statistics Canada data table can be changed by clicking on the “add/remove data” tab at the top of the page.

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/pick-choisir?lang=eng&p2=33&id=3780122

#2 Theo on 01.06.17 at 6:24 pm

I read somewhere that those December jobs are distorted by including temporary positions that are more than 30 hours per week for the Christmas season.

Is that true?

#3 Randy on 01.06.17 at 6:24 pm

I just read estate real listings and laugh

#4 TurnerNation on 01.06.17 at 6:25 pm

This blog is authentic, local and cold-pressed.

#5 For those about to flop... on 01.06.17 at 6:26 pm

Well,since it’s Friday I might as well have a tipple.
This is what I’m drinking right now.
Kootenay True Ale.

Yes, it’s a poor mans beer made right here in B.C. amongst stunning scenery.
I like to visit that area in the summer time but I am just as allergic to the snow as the Dow Jones is to the 20k mark.

When I see it I want to head in the other direction.

I’d probably also miss the excitement of the Salt Wars if I moved to Creston B.C.

Never did work out whether it’s the licorice or the price of real estate here that’s giving me the trots…

M42BC
M64WI

http://www.columbiabrewery.ca/node/10

#6 George on 01.06.17 at 6:26 pm

Due to extremely low inventory levels in places like Vancouver and Victoria, prices won’t fall significantly

Van already has. But you don’t need ‘significant’ to cause heartache. — Garth

#7 Skiffy on 01.06.17 at 6:29 pm

first

#8 Mark on 01.06.17 at 6:36 pm

“plus an escalating amount of inflation”

Nope. Escalating amounts of deflation. Consumers are broke. They have increasingly little money to spend.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/cpis01a-eng.htm

-0.4% from October 2016 to November 2016, and 1.2% YoY.

#9 Irish Stew on 01.06.17 at 6:38 pm

Trump had no influence on Ford’s decision to put the new line in Flat Rock, MI – but he sure clung to it in the media.

Automotive companies are global now in order to compete and make money. Trump won’t change that.

#10 Kelowna on 01.06.17 at 6:45 pm

Great post as always Garth.
Just happened to look at the Archive section of this BLOG and it struck me just how long this BLOG has been running! Thank you for all your wisdom and common sense over all these years!
It may not always feel like it, but it is appreciated!!

#11 Suede on 01.06.17 at 6:48 pm

at least Trudeau has great hair

#12 Lulu on 01.06.17 at 6:50 pm

Loblaws is so empty on a Friday night shopping…. meanwhile No Frill is packed…. Does it correlated? I don’t know but one thing i know for sure is people can’t afford good food or going out for a nice dinner anymore, with the crap and trade kicking in just now, we are paying way more than last year… also from the past X’mas spending….

Spring will be very entertaining for sure, it’s cold this week. Spring…. is a bit far fetch for now….

#13 Ronaldo on 01.06.17 at 6:54 pm

If one in every 10 resales in Vancouver have never been lived in that would indicate a huge inventory of empty homes/condos. If something were to happen to cause these empty units to hit the market all of a sudden, there would be no shortage of rentals would there? Doesn’t seem like our premiers new rules have done much in that regard so instead she decided to prime the developer pump with free money for greater fools to buy in to this mania. What a mess this is going to be when it starts to unwind. I wouldn’t be in too much of a rush to buy in as I suspect that in the not too distant future there will be ample supply of rentals when the specuvestors can no longer hang on to their empty units.

#14 For those about to flop... on 01.06.17 at 6:58 pm

#6 George on 01.06.17 at 6:26 pm
Due to extremely low inventory levels in places like Vancouver and Victoria, prices won’t fall significantly

Van already has. But you don’t need ‘significant’ to cause heartache. — Garth

//////////////////////////

Hey George,check out what is happening in my hood 7km for the centre of town.

The snow is hiding the blood on the streets…

M42BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/fraser-ve/trends

#15 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.06.17 at 6:59 pm

The Trump Presidency.
The known unknown.
Like a loaded, loose cannon rolling around on the deck of a ship in a maelstrom.
Well we can count on President Trump for many amusing , cringe worthy utterances over the next 4 years.

#16 Brian Ripley on 01.06.17 at 6:59 pm

…the US dollar rallied again…Garth

My chart of Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto SF detached houses compared in CAD & USD
http://www.chpc.biz/canadian-housing-in-usd.html

Dec 2016, 25% cheaper in USD
Feb 2016, 28% cheaper in USD
Mar 2009, 21% cheaper in USD

Some technical analysts are projecting the USD rallying to 112 in 2017. It closed today at 102.21

#17 Polls R Phake on 01.06.17 at 7:16 pm

DELETED

#18 Figmund Sreud on 01.06.17 at 7:17 pm

Look at the jobs numbers – another 156,000 last month bringing the annual total to 2.16 million, coming atop 2.7 million new hires in 2015.
_________________________________

Yes. It is a miss, though! To support this, here is a point made in New York Times article:

“…The average monthly pace of hiring in 2016 stood at 180,000, well below the 225,000 pace in 2015 and the 248,000 rate in 2014…”

The article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/06/business/economy/unemployment-jobs-report-hiring.html?_r=0

More important, people are making more money.
______________________________________

So they do. Supporting article on this, too – from Wall Street Journal, this one:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/minimum-wages-set-to-increase-in-many-states-in-2017-1483093806

And so, summa summarum:

Indeed, … the employment situation report is some what positive, no doubt, but it fell well short of expectations, … and there is a dubious increase in wage growth!

F.S. – Comox, BC.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/minimum-wages-set-to-increase-in-many-states-in-2017-1483093806

#19 acdel on 01.06.17 at 7:20 pm

Unbelievable, I thought the salt riot was hilarious but this really is absolutely baffling, could only happen on the West Coast.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/snowy-windshield-surrey-1.3925511

WT ?????????????????????????????????????????????

#20 bob g on 01.06.17 at 7:22 pm

low behold when all say peace and safety,

then shall the end cometh

#21 Long-Timer Lurker on 01.06.17 at 7:25 pm

Hi, Garth.

It’s a new year. I still read your blog, regularly. Sometimes I feel like commenting but I’d just be blabbing about my personal life.

Garth, do you think your financial strategy as it currently stands can handle every possible scenario? Like the unexpected Trump scenario? Things are happening behind the scenes and if you look past the mainstream media/Wizard of Oz’s curtain, you would want to be ready for anything.

Cover your assets.

#22 sockeyemoon on 01.06.17 at 7:28 pm

Demographics have to play into this too (boom, bust and echo and all that jazz). There are many many houses here in Victoria that once housed an entire family but now just have one or two elderly occupants.

There will come a time in the not too distant future when these occupants a) either become to feeble to take care of a big house or b) want to unload it to cash out.

Some one then has to but them. But who? The nurses who will be needed to take care of them in their dotage? I don’t think the nurses can afford it.

One does not have to wonder too hard why the Family Doctors are moving out of this town. The overhead is too high. Even renting an office has been affected by the real estate surge.

So we are headed for weird times. Times when the barista at your local S$#rbucks is communiting 2 hours to get to work.

Somehow the math here just does not add up!

#23 Polls R Phake on 01.06.17 at 7:31 pm

#17 Polls R Phake on 01.06.17 at 7:16 pm
DELETED

___________________________________

Oh man really? People have been calling ALL DAY on the radio about this. But I guess the truth is not allowed on this blog….

Truth is welcome. Sycophant bigots are not. Time you checked out. — Garth

#24 Happy Fran on 01.06.17 at 7:34 pm

It amazes me when governments praise themselves that they have balanced the budget. Of course they can do that by just raising taxes. I’ll give kudos to a government that can lower taxes and balance a budget. That will be an achievement.

#25 jay on 01.06.17 at 7:38 pm

http://www.torontosun.com/2017/01/06/ontario-company-charged-more-than-100000-in-green-fee-levy http://globalnews.ca/news/2839995/what-is-the-global-adjustment-fee-the-mysterious-cost-ontario-hydro-customers-must-pay/ How can your industry compete in Ontario with America, oh well just tear down the industry and build condo’s.

#26 Belieb It. on 01.06.17 at 7:51 pm

#58 Smoking Man on 01.05.17 at 8:32 pm

It’s no surprise too me.

Market prices are set by supply and demand. Needed some renovations done at ufo central. Finally got someone. I’m overpaying but it’s the nature of the beast. Everyone is renovating.

Good thing after the Reno. Can sell on the spot.
Thinking March 2018. Peak.
—————–
Off to the old age home – good for you.

#27 Sad on 01.06.17 at 7:57 pm

“…and my parents aren’t happy.”

This is Vlad the Realtor’s reason to get back in the real estate. Makes sense.

#28 Forzudo on 01.06.17 at 7:59 pm

The glass is half full (for US equities):
http://www.goldmansachs.com/what-we-do/investment-management/private-wealth-management/intellectual-capital/isg-outlook-2017.pdf

#29 true cost of a house? on 01.06.17 at 8:04 pm

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/video/news/massive-home-on-sale-for-dollar137900-but-theres-a-catch/vi-BBxZ0Tq?ocid=mailsignout

OVER 5,000 SQ FT GOING FOR $137,900 IN SMALL TOWN.

WHAT IS THE TRUE COST OF A HOUSE? COST AND LABOUR?

#30 mike from mtl on 01.06.17 at 8:06 pm

Man all you dummies complaining in Cancouver should seriously considering moving. Why stay in a crappy two industry town (RE, and Pot) that is actually worst than Mtl with double if not triple the expenses? Seriously if you’ve not got a joint paid off in full, move… None of this nonsense will work itself out in your or my lifetime.

The ‘weather’ is not enough of an excuse, common.

I have family in BC and do work travelling there at least a few times per year. And for someone from QC to say “you’re all f’ed, got your sh*t together” is enough of a push I’d say. In 2010 I serially considered moving there for ‘better pastures’ and so on. But even back then the reality hit I’d be working in less of a market, for the same money, and more than double expenses.

F that!

Yes my taxes are high, job market is dying but honest but at least my expenses are far less and I can enjoy myself thank you very much.

#31 mike from mtl on 01.06.17 at 8:22 pm

Sorry correction:

In BC you have RE, transportation and logging as a real economy. pot and money laundering are under the table. That’s it.

#32 The Wet Coast on 01.06.17 at 8:28 pm

I drive through New Westminster all the time. Its the Vancouver Burb RE taking the hardest hit, but they’re all bad. The only folks making money in RE in New Westminster, or anywhere in Vancouver are the folks making “For Sale” signs. If the trends don’t change soon it is going to get downright ugly.

https://www.zolo.ca/new-westminster-real-estate/trends

#33 45north on 01.06.17 at 8:37 pm

Especially now that we know the T2 government lied during the election campaign and (a) the budget will not balance itself, (b) we won’t be solvent by the next election, (c) Canada will still be running deficits in 2050 and (d) the national debt will soar past $1 trillion.

Shared Services is spending some of that money. In fact it’s spending $1.4 billion a year. It was supposed to save money but it isn’t and it won’t. Ever.

The thing that bugs me is that Shared Services is at the top of the food chain. Compared to just about everyone and everything else in Canada. I listened to CEO of AllState, Tim Wilson. He said companies should not just make money but they should also create prosperity. Now obviously, the scope of doing something creative rises as you move up the food chain. Example is this blog. It’s creating prosperity. The point is Shared Services is at the top of the food chain: in terms of budget and in freedom of maneuver but it’s not doing anything to create prosperity.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/sweating-the-details-at-shared-services-what-it-will-take-to-reset-it

#34 Post on 01.06.17 at 8:41 pm

“Soon, add Victoria to the list.”
…………….
Garth have you been reading the comments section again? I thought you warned us to do this at our own risk?

I’ve heard there’s a delusional guy/gal lurking on here nightly preaching about the stealth-already-in-progress meltdown. Meanwhile the homeowners have made really significant gains and now the Town has a HISTORICAL dearth of listings. I wouldn’t bet your Stanfields on that one coming true.

#35 Frank on 01.06.17 at 8:43 pm

Meanwhile in Canuckistan, signs our economic torpor may be ending

But after last months bad jobs report you said we were in peril. I swear the fate of our economy changes with the wind according to you.

I get that you’re all in as a housing bear, after 9 years you can’t switch. How about some consistency on our economy? If it goes up you says rates are going to kill housing. If it goes down you say unemployment will kill housing? Can you fit every narrative outcome into one that kills housing?

#36 the other white meat (pork) on 01.06.17 at 8:47 pm

You’re a good man Garth, which is why so many of us have come here on a daily basis for years now. We see the wisdom of your balanced approach to finances but this anti house strategy has cost a lot of believers a hell of a lot of money. I’m long out of the housing market and fine with that, but rents have caught up with the lack of supply and it is no longer such an attractive option. I pity the young people who took your advice to heart and will be left out of the housing market forever (sorry brother, they will) and will also miss out on those tax free gains.

#37 I don't know on 01.06.17 at 8:49 pm

“As I explained here yesterday, this may be true to an extent. Supply and demand are totally screwed up. Cheap money, voracious bankers, helicopter parents, financial illiteracy, risk-averse Millennials and migration have created the momma of housing demand. But homeowner greed and a growing inability to move have shrunk supply. That’s why prices are stupid. And cannot remain at current levels.” – Garth

———————————————————-

Prices are not stupid. Prices are where they are because of supply and demand. It does not matter how you analyze either the supply or demand side. There is nothing in that simple equation that is about to change. Not in Toronto. There is also nothing that changes the fact that TO RE naysayers have been very wrong in their call for prices to go lower. And they will continue to be wrong in the years to come no matter how strident they are about prices being stupid.

#38 Andrew Woburn on 01.06.17 at 9:03 pm

#15 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.06.17 at 6:59 pm
The Trump Presidency.
The known unknown.
Like a loaded, loose cannon rolling around on the deck of a ship in a maelstrom.
=================

Let’s see. Trump has already picked a fight with the US intelligence community, threatened major businesses with tariffs, alarmed senior politicians with his apparent cozy connections with Putin and may well disrupt international trade so he can bask in the glow of blue collar adoration. And he’s not even in power yet.

Somehow US investors think this augurs a new golden age of prosperity and capital gains. But if business is supposed to thrive on stability, consistency and predictability, how does that work?

The image that Trump should keep in mind is that of the secret service agent who clearly signalled “WTF?” as he was ordered off the back of Kennedy’s limousine. You can see it yourself on Youtube. That was the last president who went to war with the CIA and business elites.

#39 the Jaguar on 01.06.17 at 9:07 pm

If “Vlad” got in hot water with his parents for selling his property before ‘peak’ one can be pretty sure “Vlad”s real name is probably Tony or Santino or something similar. Was the property in Woodbridge, Vlad? After living in the GTA for almost 7 years in a past life I can also confirm many in Toronto have a narrow view of other canadian cities and the people who live in them. I found their lack of self awareness appalling. Cottage life, trips to Virginia Beach, Florida, and Buffalo for NFL games. Worldly, huh? A lot of games about where you grew up, what school you went to, and especially what lake your cottage sits on. The slide ruler game is big there. Enough said. Better not pick on Toronto or the long knives will come out for the Jag.
About those jobs though. Seems to me that you can’t talk about jobs being created or increased household income unless you talk about “discretionary income”. You have to pay the mortgage or rent, feed the dog or cat and hopefully yourself. What matters is the money left over which allows you to invest & boost the economy buying other consumer goods. That’s what keeps the music playing. But if your mortgage payment is so big it swallows your paycheque, and you make up for it by using credit to buy the other basics then you are falling behind. You’re not even treading water. All that real estate buys you is bragging rights about your square footage, not about your quality of life. Guess you can measure a lot of things with a slide ruler. Value just isn’t one of them.

#40 45north on 01.06.17 at 9:07 pm

To assume the country’s last remaining bubbly real estate market will remain that way even as mortgage costs increase, national finances rot and Yanks change the rules is, well, realtor fantasy. Especially when we’ve just come through seven years of historic increases, as interest rates descended to record lows.

It’s not just realtor fantasy: if you’ve signed a big mortgage on 325 Perth Ave in Toronto, it’s your fantasy:

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/01/23/the-wars/

Come to think of it, your mortgage is up in two years!

#41 Polls R Phake on 01.06.17 at 9:09 pm

DELETED

#42 Polls R Phake on 01.06.17 at 9:10 pm

#38 Andrew Woburn on 01.06.17 at 9:03 pm
#15 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.06.17 at 6:59 pm
The Trump Presidency.
The known unknown.
Like a loaded, loose cannon rolling around on the deck of a ship in a maelstrom.
=================

Let’s see. Trump has already picked a fight with the US intelligence community, threatened major businesses with tariffs, alarmed senior politicians with his apparent cozy connections with Putin and may well disrupt international trade so he can bask in the glow of blue collar adoration. And he’s not even in power yet.

Somehow US investors think this augurs a new golden age of prosperity and capital gains. But if business is supposed to thrive on stability, consistency and predictability, how does that work?

The image that Trump should keep in mind is that of the secret service agent who clearly signalled “WTF?” as he was ordered off the back of Kennedy’s limousine. You can see it yourself on Youtube. That was the last president who went to war with the CIA and business elites.

___________________________________________

And you think the status quo in the world is working so well?

#43 Smoking Man on 01.06.17 at 9:18 pm

Hallarious

http://www.breitbart.com/big-hollywood/2017/01/06/jackie-mason-destroys-un/

#44 Barb on 01.06.17 at 9:18 pm

Vlad screwed up, feeling he had to buy back in at high prices.

If he had been honest with himself, he’d have known he loves to own a piece of soil.

For guys like Vlad, he should’ve owned TWO places…sold one to cash in on what he felt was a windfall due to high prices.
And kept the other cuz he loves to own soil.

Win/win for guys like Vlad.

Whad’ya bet he doesn’t have a garden though…

#45 Smoking Man on 01.06.17 at 9:25 pm

#23 Polls R Phake on 01.06.17 at 7:31 pm
#17 Polls R Phake on 01.06.17 at 7:16 pm
DELETED

___________________________________

Oh man really? People have been calling ALL DAY on the radio about this. But I guess the truth is not allowed on this blog….

Truth is welcome. Sycophant bigots are not. Time you checked out. — Garth
.

Shit happens, kids do stupid things. Bit of a double standard at the moment. But things always balance out.

But as the man with the most deletes on this blog. Don’t insite division between races all you will fine.

You are more than welcome to attack tree huggers and cats.

#46 White Crock BC on 01.06.17 at 9:31 pm

Suede on 01.06.17 at 6:48 pm

at least Trudeau has great hair
==========================

So does Trump..

#47 Leo Trollstoy on 01.06.17 at 9:38 pm

I agree with gartho on a few things.

I know Toronto real estate prices are high and likely going higher, inflation is here and were being slow to recognize it, US economy is strong and getting stronger, Canada seems to be doing ok. Rates will rise. Treading water. And finally became an exporter after 2 years.

#48 Smoking Man on 01.06.17 at 9:45 pm

Back yard wisdom.

Hating people is a mental disorder and you should seek help.

Nothing wrong with hating stupid ideas and trying to change that belief.

That’s the difference between humans and Nictonites. Presented well from smokeys narative in the book that no one bought.

A Nictonite hates no one. Just stupid ideas. And cats and Shlong Zumanga.

Not really cats. But it’s fun to pick on cat people. 100% lefty loons.

Dogs are gods.

#49 Smoking Man on 01.06.17 at 10:01 pm

My address was posted relentlessly in yesterday posts. Am I frightend. Hell no.

My love for humanity and hate for stupidity will shine through everytime.

If you come to 57 James strret to kill me. Let’s share a drink first.

You will change your mind after a quick trip in a plasma flier.

BYOB

And some for me. Truth. I drink CC, JD only at casinos.

#50 DON on 01.06.17 at 10:14 pm

#123 Looney Baloney on 01.06.17 at 3:00 am

Does it make me a xenophobe if I make the observation the vast majority of salt grabbers seem to be of Chinese descent?

Xenophobia is a fear of foreigners. Those are locals. — Garth
*******************
Blog: What I am about to say…is all in good fun!

Half of Greater Vancouver’s population suffers from Xenophobia and the other half lines up for salt.

Remember Jokes don’t hurt people…people hurt people. lol

#51 Smoking Man on 01.06.17 at 10:15 pm

More back yard wisdom.

The moment you think your a victim of some kind is the day gravity keeps you down and pined.

Never to fly to the stars.

Life is a journey to death, moments of good luck, bad luck, and huge moments of boating shit in between.

See it, feel it.

Cause one day your just worm food that only alpha worms care about.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#52 Kevin Li on 01.06.17 at 10:20 pm

Remove the 15% tax and Vancouver is booming again, with prices going up.

GTA north is booming and will for a looooong time. People with money want the GREENBELT, low crime, safety, easy shopping.

Richmond Hill is the new Rosedale, as we get a new GREENER version of Toronto (with wider roads and more pleasant people) starting north of Steeles up to Barrie.

The rest of Canada should be angry at Trudeau for his new RE rules, as Toronto/GTA homeowners get rich the area is becoming like a city-state full of millionaires.

#53 Self Directed on 01.06.17 at 10:24 pm

#14 For those about to flop… on 01.06.17 at 6:58 pm

#6 George on 01.06.17 at 6:26 pm
Due to extremely low inventory levels in places like Vancouver and Victoria, prices won’t fall significantly

Van already has. But you don’t need ‘significant’ to cause heartache. — Garth

//////////////////////////

Hey George,check out what is happening in my hood 7km for the centre of town.

The snow is hiding the blood on the streets…

M42BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/fraser-ve/trends
…………………………………………………………………..

Yup! You got it Flop. I think this spring we’ll see sales and prices down.

I just randomly clicked 3 with price reductions, and they were all 6 figure drops… probably just after 42 DOM (6 weeks). These are like 5-7% price drops.

But just how much have houses gone up in the Fraser Valley because of all this demand? Well, according to REW, they now have record price increases 2 years in a row! Yes, detached housing there has doubled since Dec 2014:

http://www.rew.ca/news/fraser-valley-home-sales-break-records-in-2016-despite-slow-december-fvreb-1.6270514?utm_source=REW+Consumer+News

“The benchmark price of a home in the Fraser Valley (combined property types) ended the year at $628,800, which is 27 per cent higher than one year previously, and less than one per cent lower than November 2015.

I want to know why buyers don’t expect the same price decreases in places like Coquitlam, POCO, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, and Mission? Obviously, the market does not cool everywhere at the same rate. People are willing to max out their GDS (Gross Debt Service Ratio), and that is a big mistake.

I’m waiting for the true definition of a buyers market, and not a day sooner.

#54 Johnny on 01.06.17 at 10:32 pm

Van already has. But you don’t need ‘significant’ to cause heartache. — Garth

Is it heartache we want or affordable houses? As I’ve said before, until the people will be able to pay a monthly amount to the bank for the next 25 years, they won’t care about prices or rates.

#55 Smoking Man on 01.06.17 at 10:47 pm

Nothing else matters when you feel good in your skin. No matier what shade or package.

Finding your voice. .. caring nothing about your observers opinions. There need to fit the narative.

I made it. No more jobs on Bay street.

I’m a writer now with limited fans. Good enough for me.

https://youtu.be/x7bIbVlIqEc

#56 prairiegopher on 01.06.17 at 11:15 pm

I am totally shocked that baby Castro lied to us! What other revelation do you have?

#57 Pete on 01.06.17 at 11:20 pm

Glad to see that the lady in the photo has a ring on her finger.

#58 Rook on 01.06.17 at 11:34 pm

Garth , I’m curious why you would add Victoria to the list. Soon?

#59 KoolAid on 01.06.17 at 11:46 pm

If you’re an owner of a couple of properties for a period longer then 10years or more, with substantial equity, then yes, selling part of your property portfolio makes a lot of sense, no one ever went broke taking a profit.

Now selling it all, liquidating 100% of your property investments may also be a risk, I’ve never encountered any advisor that advocated a 100% cash position ever.

Owning a home to live in is not a mistake, not having the ability to pay on such a commitment is.

#60 Braj on 01.07.17 at 12:09 am

#21 Long-Timer Lurker on 01.06.17 at 7:25 pm
Hi, Garth.

It’s a new year. I still read your blog, regularly. Sometimes I feel like commenting but I’d just be blabbing about my personal life.

Garth, do you think your financial strategy as it currently stands can handle every possible scenario? Like the unexpected Trump scenario? Things are happening behind the scenes and if you look past the mainstream media/Wizard of Oz’s curtain, you would want to be ready for anything.

Cover your assets

Cover them with what?

#61 Shanghai Sharon on 01.07.17 at 12:34 am

DELETED

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.07.17 at 12:50 am

@#42 Poles R Fake
“And you think the status quo in the world is working so well”
*******************************************
Nyet.
But I’d take the wife of a philandering Ex President as the new President over a Boorish Bombastic Boob any day of the week…….
Ahhhh….and …..

You’re fired!

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.07.17 at 12:58 am

@#144 NoName 01/05/17
“Did I mention that led lights make people crazy to, yes I did, few months back.”
*******************************************

Well, judging from your pseudoscientifically warped sense of reality…..
You should ask the warden to remove the LED’s from your padded cell…..
Which begs the question……
How DID you earn keyboard priviledges?

#64 For those about to flop... on 01.07.17 at 1:03 am

Hey S.D here is a couple more with healthy reductions,probably 8 or 9 km from downtown.

Already this year there has been $13.5 million in reductions in the city, with an average of close to $70k.

I’ve got no doubt there will be an uptick in activity starting around late February.

The developers that were walking the tightrope already have deep grooves in their feet.

Spring will have sprung and by the Fall a lot more people will smell the dung…

M42BC

4996 Moss Street, Vancouver

Jan 2:$1,960,000
Jan 5: $1,680,000
Change: -$280,000.00 -14%

4984 Moss Street, Vancouver

Jan 2:$2,250,000
Jan 5: $1,936,000
Change: – $314,000.00 -14%

#65 WUL on 01.07.17 at 1:15 am

Trudeau, Wynne and Notley are taking all the blame for our difficulties these days. To be fair, when, under the Harper regime, were both the Leafs and Canucks in a playoff spot as they are tonight at 11:14 MST? The Dark Era is over and brighter days beckon.

#66 Stock Picker on 01.07.17 at 1:30 am

Trudeau bitch slaps Trump and refuses to attend inauguration . Gee, I have to wonder what Junior would have done if Hillary had been elected…slow dancing with Obama? What would Sophie be wearing….gush. The PMs retinue would be in the thousands. Peter Manabridge would have been brought back from the dead. Does anyone think this slight won’t be noted?

This is a disaster, a nasty lisping snub at the new leader of our largest trading partner is akin to Canadian suicide. This is the stupidest move and childish snit any Canadian politician has ever pulled.

#67 Jay Currie on 01.07.17 at 1:46 am

For shits and giggles enjoy the from top to bottom price “for rent” on Vancouver Craigslist. You have to scroll for a moment to get to actual rentals but so much fun:

https://vancouver.craigslist.ca/search/apa?sort=pricedsc

Pages of $5000 plus rentals. All after tax dollars. These folks are delusional. for fun, once in a while I get in touch with the agents. Turns out rents are negotiable. Who knew.

Crunch then wither then Crash.

#68 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.07.17 at 2:29 am

#52 Kevin Li on 01.06.17 at 10:20 pm

Remove the 15% tax and Vancouver is booming again, with prices going up.

GTA north is booming and will for a looooong time. People with money want the GREENBELT, low crime, safety, easy shopping.

Richmond Hill is the new Rosedale, as we get a new GREENER version of Toronto (with wider roads and more pleasant people) starting north of Steeles up to Barrie.

The rest of Canada should be angry at Trudeau for his new RE rules, as Toronto/GTA homeowners get rich the area is becoming like a city-state full of millionaires.

—————————–

I’ve lived in Richmond Hill/Thornhill for the last 14 years and I’ve witnessed the transformation, so please don’t be offended by what I’m about to say…

The “pleasant people” you speak of are being displaced by a new generation of immigrants who don’t assimilate into Canadian culture. Chinese, Russians and Persians are replacing the local population, and they are not exactly “pleasant” – They stick to their own, exclusively. I barely recognize this place compared to what it used to be. Now it’s mostly first generation Canadians who barely speak English, and those who are still here from past generations are mostly the poor and pissed off – Poor, because if they had the means, they would have already left… Pissed off that they’ve been priced out of their own home town that’s now gone to crap.

Bungalows in a part of Richmond Hill that used to be considered “ghetto” are now in the 1.1 to 1.4 million dollar range. These houses are pieces of shit. I wouldn’t rent one, or even pay $250,000 to buy one, much less 1.4 million bucks.

If your ilk intend on taking over all of GTA north, up to Barrie, then I think you will find that the very thing you complain about will follow you wherever you and your cohorts decide to inhabit.

As far as Greenbelt is concerned, lol, good luck with that. Gov has that land on lock down.

#69 Jobs good news but... on 01.07.17 at 4:39 am

80% of the job gains were in:

+28.1 K in Professional, scientific and technical services, and
+13.9 K in Health care and social assistance.

Goods producing only saw net +1.7 K jobs (Agriculture -6.8 K, Manufacturing +3.6 K, Natural Resources -4.1 K, Utilities +3.3 K, Construction +5.7 K). This is where the high paying/benefits jobs are.

I get it +Jobs is better than -Jobs.

But Prof., scientific et. al. is Accounting/Tax, Legal, Engineering, Computer Design and R&D = tax season is coming up.

Health care probably keeping pace with population growth needs.

W.r.t. 2015/2016 GDP we are way, way down from previous years to 2008 GDP levels and people are borrowing like crazy to maintain their lifestyle (e.g., 22% of all homeowners have a HELOC).

Dec. 2016 Jobs is an anomaly, a very good one, but an anomaly.

We will see 1st Qtr 2017 that this is what it was.

Enthusiasm with no economic fundamentals to back it up.

bsant

#70 #2 Theo you are correct on 01.07.17 at 4:57 am

Google search results:

Full-time employment is defined as work of 30 hours or more per week; part-time employment is work of less than 30 hours per week.

StatsCan Definition (same as above):

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/concepts/definitions/labour-class03b

Retail (jobs in stores etc., NAICS 44-45) is reported under “Trade” in the Labour Force Survey. That increased by +8.9 K in December 2016.

Go here to see the individual break downs that are summarized in the LFS:

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lang=eng&id=2820008

bsant

#71 golden retrievers are great on 01.07.17 at 7:45 am

DELETED

#72 Euro observer on 01.07.17 at 7:57 am

It does not matter how many immigrants move to GTA.

They have no money. Period. If they had they would not be coming to Canada. Specially GTA. It is workers getho.

Most newcomers make very low salaries. Average salary in GTA is around seventy something K per household per year before taxes. For new immigrants is probably in the fifties.

I always wondered how a family can live with less than 120 k before taxes in GTA considering the living expenses.
It is pretty much impossible.

To have houses cost 20-30 times annual income is clearly unrealistic and idiotic.
Immigration and economy justifies valuations for up to 35 % of the current prices. That’s it.

#73 neo on 01.07.17 at 8:59 am

Mattamy opening a new phase in Milton this weekend to greater fools already lining up for this.

http://mattamyhomes.com/gta/communities/milton-hawthorne-south-village.aspx

Question Garth, Mattamy is allowing people to put $10,000 of their down payment on their credit card. I thought this was a no no?

#74 philandering Ex President on 01.07.17 at 9:52 am

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.07.17 at 12:50 am

But I’d take the wife of a philandering Ex President as the new President over a Boorish Bombastic Boob any day of the week…….

More fresh air would be beneficial for you.

Capitalism got rid of dynasties for reason to break away from feudalism.

#75 They have no money. Period. on 01.07.17 at 10:04 am

72 Euro observer

It does not matter how many immigrants move to GTA.

They have no money. Period. If they had they would not be coming to Canada.

====

Maybe true for “Euro immigrants”. Even from there there are plenty of wealthy immigrants from Russia.
Even more from Asia and Middle-East.

You can see that from consumption as there is no stats collected.

#76 nubbers on 01.07.17 at 10:34 am

Has there ever been an example of a house price bubble that just deflated slowly? Examples please? I don’t think the UK or Canada 2008 bubbles count as a slow deflation, more of an aborted pop, thanks to a sudden drop in interest rates.

If house price rises and declines were just caused by simple maths and fundamentals, then I could see there being a slow deflation. However, as illustrated by Vlad and so many others, house price rises are more driven by emotion and herd instinct, and herds can all change direction fast. Such systems are better described by catastrophe theory, which allows rapid and catastrophic changes in such things as the rate of change of house prices.

I will write this up properly and submit to Dr SM. This has to be worth an MSc, at least.

#77 The Wet Coast on 01.07.17 at 10:37 am

Pitt Meadows another Vancouver Burb has replaced New Westminster on the race to the bottom on GVRD Real Estate pricing. The snowy winter certainly seems to have shut down RE, I checked out the link someone provided on rentals in the lower mainland, and there does seem to be a lot of them. Its hard to take any joy out of this, but it would seem a lot of folks are going to get hurt by this.

https://www.zolo.ca/pitt-meadows-real-estate/trends

#78 Sebee on 01.07.17 at 10:39 am

How is this for a sober moment of reflection?

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/05/japanese-company-replaces-office-workers-artificial-intelligence-ai-fukoku-mutual-life-insurance

Will Watson be paid enough to buy Toronto RE? You think Watson needs a detached 4 bdrm or will he make do with 3 bdrm?

#79 robert james on 01.07.17 at 10:42 am

Salt black market.. Unbelievable.!!! http://www.castanet.net/news/BC/185372/Black-market-for-road-salt

#80 MF on 01.07.17 at 10:55 am

#72 Euro observer on 01.07.17 at 7:57 am

Because there are jobs available.

I’m no real estate bull and I believe house prices here in the gta are are a hilarious joke, but we cannot deny a few factors here.

I was born here but my girlfriend is a recent immigrant from the Philippines. I’ve seen all her friends and relatives find decent paying jobs within weeks. They also live together and pool resources. They all feel comfortable and accepted too.

Again the housing market will implode when credit dries up (started already) but these gta haters on here are delusional.

MF

#81 MF on 01.07.17 at 10:58 am

#75 They have no money. Period. on 01.07.17 at 10:04 am

Yes and no. Some of the cultures you mentioned flaunt their supposed wealth more than others by nature. This BS zirp failed policy allows a lot of these folks live the high life on leverage. A lot of it is an illusion.

MF

#82 MF on 01.07.17 at 11:17 am

#68 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.07.17 at 2:29 a

I have also lived in Thornhill and Richmond hill my whole 33 years.

I remember hearing the same things growing up about Indian people. I grew up and went to school with a ton of their children, canadian born and not. I can tell you that 99% of the children become as Canadian as can be and watch the Maple Laughs, drink Timmies and all of it.

The people bitter and complaining are delusional. House prices are a joke but to say everyone doesn’t get along and assimilate is just wrong. Do you leave the house?

MF

#83 Ace Goodheart on 01.07.17 at 11:17 am

So we now have a sort of odd phenomena happening in Toronto. If you want a house here, you can get one in the inner city for around 700 or 800k. Granted, it will be small but you can get detached with three bedrooms, a parking spot and some form of backyard for that price.

Head out into the former wastelands of Richmond Hill, York, Brampton, Milton, etc. and you find that three bedroom bungalows are all over 1.5 million. These are not nice houses. They are just crap shacks really. Old, 1960s bungalows built in that horrible style they had back then, many completely original. All heading towards 2 million. None of these houses are within walking distance of anything, all are car dependent. Some, you could drive to a Go Station. TTC does not come up this far. What gives? Why is everyone so excited about the far flung areas North, East and West of Toronto?

#84 Julie K. on 01.07.17 at 11:29 am

#66 Stock Picker = are you Kevin O’Leary per chance?

#85 Ace Goodheart on 01.07.17 at 11:37 am

RE: #9 Irish Stew:

“Automotive companies are global now in order to compete and make money. Trump won’t change that.”

Trump is trying to be a band aid to a problem that he again (we see this a lot) does not fully understand).

History of the low skilled, high paying jobs he is trying to protect: A long time ago, someone noticed that billion dollar companies tended to hire low skilled people, pay them next to nothing, and work them to death (sometimes literally). Along came the union movement. It was bloody. There were street battles. Eventually the two sides stopped killing each other and came to an unsteady truce. There has been a back and forth movement between them since then, industry versus the workers, which is well documented in US history and which is very unpleasant to read about.

Trump of course is a real estate baby. His Dad made his money off of hotels (which contain legions of unskilled, low wage, often undocumented workers who are not unionized). As President, and being a member of the billionaires’ club (which puts him squarely on the side of industry and not on the side of the unions) he now decides he wants to keep auto jobs in the USA.

Auto jobs left the USA because when the military industrial complex finished invading the world, the peeps in charge noticed that there was this massive unemployed workforce in “developing countries” which could be paid as little as a few dollars a day to work in factories for long hours, and could basically be worked to death (does this sound familiar, see above in the paragraph on the union movement). So of course Industry simply moved to developing countries. The military supplied the security, and all of a sudden once again billion dollar companies could have low skilled workers being paid nothing and being worked to death.

Trump is now bringing these jobs home. He has literally no idea what he is doing. Many of the States that he proposes to bring these jobs to, have enacted anti union “right to work” legislation. The people who will be worked to death in the factories have parents and grandparents who still remember the golden days of low skilled, high paying union jobs. Trump is setting up a conflict which was never resolved and which just got shipped elsewhere, without even understanding it.

At any rate, his presidency will be interesting. I don’t think he’s about what he says he’s about, but whatever it is, it is funny to watch.

#86 Roial1 on 01.07.17 at 11:41 am

#50 DON on 01.06.17 at 10:14 pm
Remember Jokes don’t hurt people…people hurt people. lol
——————————————————
Absolutely NOT TRUE!

Ask yourself how many times you where the “butt”
of the joke and how much you liked it.

The worst of these are the “so called” ethnic jokes.

While in the military I had the good fortune to work with people of all colours and creeds.

NONE of them laughed at “ethnic jokes” (coloured)(racial)

(Except the Newfies) and many of them would give the “eye” to the jokers.

#87 maxx on 01.07.17 at 11:52 am

“What’s making people with financial assets happy these days is destined to make real estate bulls unhappy.”

Rock and Roll!!!

“realtor fantasy” is still evident in pricing. A waterfront listing nearby started its little listed life at 1.2 MM and within a couple of months, dropped to 899K. Another (sellers) realtard recently told us that a property was priced “to test the market”- wow, what a loyal “pro”. The price dropped 15% within a couple of months and this realtard asked us for any offers.
So, buyers now get to test the sellers market……..about time.

Ice-water in the veins dawgs. Cash is, and always will be, and especially now is: KING.
Which brings me to whatever, other than re can one buy with cash? In the case of realtards, that might be: boatloads of bigger, whiter plastic teeth (some claim that they can be seen from space), gobs of cheap, designer-copied rags and more asinine gelled (for the men) and “fluffy bunny” coifs (for the women). For those who do well, facials, manicures and (normally) really bad botox jobs.

Priceless.

#88 Marty mcfly on 01.07.17 at 12:00 pm

700 k for a town home in Milton wow . At least there closer to the http://www.belfountainstore.ca

#89 Smelly Hippie on 01.07.17 at 12:13 pm

Anyone saw preferred shares go this month? Good call Garth.

#90 Ronaldo on 01.07.17 at 12:13 pm

#73 neo on 01.07.17 at 8:59 am

Mattamy opening a new phase in Milton this weekend to greater fools already lining up for this.

http://mattamyhomes.com/gta/communities/milton-hawthorne-south-village.aspx

Question Garth, Mattamy is allowing people to put $10,000 of their down payment on their credit card. I thought this was a no no?
—————————————————————
Why a no no? If your going to be a ‘greater fool’ you may as well get a few air mile points out of it.

#91 Ronaldo on 01.07.17 at 12:18 pm

#79 robert james on 01.07.17 at 10:42 am

Salt black market.. Unbelievable.!!! http://www.castanet.net/news/BC/185372/Black-market-for-road-salt
—————————————————————
Well Robert, maybe they need that extra cash to pay their mortgage on that overpriced condo they just bought. Nothing wrong with that if you can find someone foolish enough to pay $200 bucks for a bag of salt.

#92 maxx on 01.07.17 at 12:43 pm

“#8 Mark on 01.06.17 at 6:36 pm

” “plus an escalating amount of inflation”

Nope. Escalating amounts of deflation. Consumers are broke. They have increasingly little money to spend.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/cpis01a-eng.htm

-0.4% from October 2016 to November 2016, and 1.2% YoY.””

You’re both correct, but with an added twist:

Inflation is happening and will continue, but now, because our economy’s been so screwed by the cheapening of money, real deflation is delayed and takes place behind the curtain: Prices of essentials like gas, energy, etc will rise.
Much of retail and services, for most of the other stuff, suffers mightily and this is a steadily growing trend. Attempts are being made to raise prices, but the results are very messy. I see it every day in all types of retail. Let’s take the example of supermarkets. They are caught between tapped-out consumers and profit challenges that nightmares are made of. Really dumb money and the rich aside, most consumers are loss-leader and bargain-hunting like crazy. Second-hand store usage, ditto, in spades. What I see, every single day of the year is idiotic, “my suit pants must be too tight” pricing, followed by price drop after price drop, followed by bargain binning, followed by reduced inventory lines, followed by elimination of product lines that just aren’t selling because people are so tapped-out and cannot/will not pay for “premium” brands.
Some supermarkets are so pathetic, that they’ve reduced the reduction on less-than-perfect produce so that, imho, they can a) get a few more pennies; and b) they can justify (you know, the green, clean hands bit) dumping the stuff into the garbage, because people refuse to buy at 30% off.

As for the service sector, restaurants that haven’t closed are seeing their (former) profits migrate to coffee shops, which are doing stellar business, and hairdressers are crying in their sinks. The list goes on.

Astute consumers can roll back much of what they purchase by 30 years, if they’re willing to pay attention.

#93 TurnerNation on 01.07.17 at 12:46 pm

ROTFL. Check this out, 1.5 million dollars for a new bleak box in Kanada.
Not I – All we need is bikes (cars), babes and balanced portfolios. See ya suckers at Freedom 55 – maybe I’ll hit up the rest of the world then and meet real friendly people with real culture.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17565489/112-LAKE-SHORE-DR-Toronto-Ontario-M8V2A2-New-Toronto

M41ON

#94 maxx on 01.07.17 at 12:55 pm

#11 Suede on 01.06.17 at 6:48 pm

“at least Trudeau has great hair”

What’s that old saying….something like “grass doesn’t grow so well in a busy park”. ;-)

#95 a no no on 01.07.17 at 12:58 pm

Question Garth, Mattamy is allowing people to put $10,000 of their down payment on their credit card. I thought this was a no no?

===

That was before credit cards offered miles/cash back, etc.

I put through credit card everything I can, fully paying it off every time, of course.

#96 NoName on 01.07.17 at 1:07 pm

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.07.17 at 12:58 am

room is quite comfy, but what I found very funny is when I fart in my padded room, and everyone else blames guy beside me, I always get kick out of it.

It’s kind of sad every time they let me out I come to realize that I am not as crazy as people already out…

And as for kayboard privilege, I’ve must been typing something that has some value to someone, sad part for you is don’t get to reed really good stuff.

Let me ask you this, can you tell me more about those moments when you are in elevator and when come to realize that wasn’t a fart.

M4oON

#97 Euro observer on 01.07.17 at 1:08 pm

#73 neo,

I found this:

http://mattamyhomes.com/gta/communities/etobicoke-alderidge/plans/belvia.aspx

starting from 2213 sqft, prices ‘starting from 1,23 mil’ (so realistically 1.4 mil), semi-detached in Etobicoke.

after which I needed a double drink (European, 100 mil is a single drink here) of Johnny black label just to restore my sanity.

—————————–
—————————–

#75 They have no money. Period. on 01.07.17 at 10:04 am
72 Euro observer

It does not matter how many immigrants move to GTA.

They have no money. Period. If they had they would not be coming to Canada.

====

Maybe true for “Euro immigrants”. Even from there there are plenty of wealthy immigrants from Russia.
Even more from Asia and Middle-East.

You can see that from consumption as there is no stats collected.

———————
Let’s be clear here:

The only ‘wealthy’ immigrants who came in to GTA ever was in the migration from Hong Kong 20+ years ago.

Not many of them paid more than 250-300k for a house in GTA at that time. And I know many of them.

I lived 15 + years in GTA and have not seen a single family (from Hong Kong) without at least one person working.

If you have to work, you are not wealthy and the amount of money you can pay for a house depend on your income.

(Note that I focus on GTA here and not on BC)

The idea that a ‘wealthy’ person will immigrate to live specifically in GTA (a worker’s congested ghetto with horrific traffic, nothing to do, with it seems trend for increasingly emerging ethnic enclaves) is just bizarre pure fiction promoted by media and paid by the real estate cartel.

Looking from outside it is a hilarious idea.

The real estate bubble in the most bubbly state (Florida) in US in 2005-2006 was nothing compared to what we see currently in Canada, particularly in GTA.

Watch the ‘Big short’, it is an absolutely naive and amateurish version of what transpires currently in GTA.

Anyhow, it is sufficient just to abolish CMHC and void any mortgage ‘insurance underwritten’ by that ‘entity’ and see what the real prices will be. 30 % of the current. Max.

Agree with the statement that even 250 k is too much for dumps n Richmond Hill.

Just for comparison – for that 1.3-1.4 semi in Etobicoke one can get a fantastic villa with a pool in Spain/Italy where health care and education is free for residents and enjoy at least 40 k CA yearly income on investment with non-depletion of capital.

Sure, you will be missing the 2 hours (one way) commute to work in insane traffic and air quality and ‘skiing at the Blue ‘Mountain” instead will have to sign in for marvelous weather all year long and one day drive from the best ski resorts in the world.

#98 TurnerNation on 01.07.17 at 1:26 pm

It’s decided then. All real men must leave Kanada at some point else turn into a weeping T2 effete feminist. *sniff*….climate change…we need more taxes. *snuffle*.
Let’s see what’s on the bookshelf in this Safe Room…

#99 Ronaldo on 01.07.17 at 1:29 pm

#66 Stock Picker

”This is a disaster, a nasty lisping snub at the new leader of our largest trading partner is akin to Canadian suicide. This is the stupidest move and childish snit any Canadian politician has ever pulled.”
—————————————————————
He knows that Mr. T would have fired him given his performance so far. As Mr. T would say, “light weight”.

#100 Maj on 01.07.17 at 1:30 pm

#48 Smoking Man on 01.06.17 at 9:45 pm
#51 Smoking Man on 01.06.17 at 10:15 pm

Two of your best posts ever–way to go Smoking Man!
All the best with your career in writing.

#101 Euro observer on 01.07.17 at 1:35 pm

In my assessment the GTA’s (in particular) current real estate bubble is 2-2.5 times more overblown (compared to real, justified by income valuations) than the one in Ireland (where prices detracted and did not recover ever by 50-70 %) and at least 3 times more overblown than the one in US.

I can not even imagine the magnitude of a relatively meaningful correction, but anything less than 70-80 % correction will be mild in my mind.

Sure, governments will lie and try to hide the fallout, they will manage and sell the foreclosures secretly but it won’t matter, the economy of GTA is gone already down the drain with no good income jobs for the debt slave’s kids.

Family of 2 doctors with no kids probably will not be able to afford these ‘luxury’ Etobicoke semis.
What a joke,

#102 Ronaldo on 01.07.17 at 1:43 pm

#83 Ace Goodheat

”What gives? Why is everyone so excited about the far flung areas North, East and West of Toronto?”
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Kinda reminds you of the recent ‘salt riots’ don’t it? Aren’t people fun to watch?

#103 Ronaldo on 01.07.17 at 1:53 pm

#78 Sebee on 01.07.17 at 10:39 am

How is this for a sober moment of reflection?

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/05/japanese-company-replaces-office-workers-artificial-intelligence-ai-fukoku-mutual-life-insurance

Will Watson be paid enough to buy Toronto RE? You think Watson needs a detached 4 bdrm or will he make do with 3 bdrm.
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Ain’t technology great? A lot more of that to come to compound our already high and rising unemployed? Even the lowly fax machine had a huge impact on employment especially in the railroad industry. Then came voice mail, email and cell phones. Just think about just how those have changed our workplaces? Incredible.

#104 Kenny on 01.07.17 at 2:27 pm

Maybe VREU isn’t off base at all…. today’s letter in the times colonist

http://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/letters/big-drop-in-home-prices-in-december-1.6545974

Re: “Record sales, high prices for real estate in 2016,” Jan. 4.

While all the headlines have been trumpeting the massive increases in property assessments as well as the impressive year-over-year price gains for properties in Victoria, an equally significant story is being overlooked.

Looking at the chart titled Single Family Homes, graphing the average and median sales prices for single-family homes across Greater Victoria going back as far as December 2013, one sees a critical change that occurred in the most recent month. The average price dropped a whopping $100,000, from about $850,000 in November to about $750,000 in December, representing a decrease of about 12 per cent in one month.

Similarly, the median price dropped significantly as well, from about $700,000 to about $660,000, a decrease of about six per cent. This is an alarming reversal of the trend from the past year and takes the average and median prices back to the March 2016 levels.

One month alone does not make a new trend, but such a major reversal should at least warrant a mention.

Kevin Ellis

Victoria

#105 Pete on 01.07.17 at 2:29 pm

“Richmond Hill is the new Rosedale”
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You must be joking. Aside from what another reader posted about the changing demographics of Richmond Hill, the place has none of the charm, history, architecture or character of Rosedale. It’s like saying that Terrebonne is the new Westmount.

#106 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.07.17 at 2:31 pm

#73 neo on 01.07.17 at 8:59 am

Mattamy opening a new phase in Milton this weekend to greater fools already lining up for this.

http://mattamyhomes.com/gta/communities/milton-hawthorne-south-village.aspx
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Crappy townhouses for $700,000 + tax in freaking Milton? Wow. And people are lining up for them? Have people lost their goddamn minds?

I hope these idiots get absolutely crushed when the market tanks and rates go up, up, up.

#107 Fish on 01.07.17 at 3:20 pm

DELETED

#108 maxx on 01.07.17 at 7:36 pm

#24 Happy Fran on 01.06.17 at 7:34 pm

“It amazes me when governments praise themselves that they have balanced the budget. Of course they can do that by just raising taxes. I’ll give kudos to a government that can lower taxes and balance a budget. That will be an achievement.”

Pshaw! That would cut deeply into their “entitlements” funding, such as power deco offices, career coaches, selfie budgets and chauffeurs aplenty.
Kudos won’t be coming for a while……quite the opposite.

#109 maxx on 01.07.17 at 8:03 pm

Anyone, anywhere in Canuckistan with property on which they could have made a killing should have sold during 2011/12 and converted a whack of it to USD. Capital appreciation alone could have paid for a new property, perhaps a smaller home, a place in the US sunbelt or lakefront property- while we’re at it, maybe even a place in the Caribbean. What a huge lost opportunity.

Oh well, too late……at roughly 35-year parity intervals, if the trend holds, millennials might be able to apply some historical wisdom at retirement- if they have accumulated any actual cash at that point, beyond a very longstanding mortgage.

#110 Domingo on 01.07.17 at 10:03 pm

#67 Jay Currie

For shits and giggles enjoy the from top to bottom price “for rent” on Vancouver Craigslist. You have to scroll for a moment to get to actual rentals but so much fun:

https://vancouver.craigslist.ca/search/apa?sort=pricedsc

Pages of $5000 plus rentals. All after tax dollars. These folks are delusional. for fun, once in a while I get in touch with the agents. Turns out rents are negotiable. Who knew.

Crunch then wither then Crash.
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Nice find, I have to admit I’ve never perused that section of craigslist so I have no idea what it would usually look like. Is this the effect of the incoming empty house tax, a whole slew of very high end properties flooding the market?

#111 neal on 01.08.17 at 10:46 am

The vast majority of immigrants don’t walk in flush with cash. The immigrants that we often read about buying houses for cash are the minority. If real estate prices keep rising, these so called immigrants won’t qualify for mortgages, just like you and me!!

#112 Fish on 01.08.17 at 4:58 pm

Watch those older houses (shacks) Isn’t the government trying to make sure there no asbestos
In those walls ,

#113 bill on 01.08.17 at 5:17 pm

#13 Ronaldo on 01.06.17 at 6:54 pm
‘If something were to happen to cause these empty units to hit the market all of a sudden, there would be no shortage of rentals would there? ‘
we have noticed in the apt biz that the condo market is a competitor for sure.
some time ago ‘good reliable ‘ tenants bought condos and houses … and we then had trouble getting the aforementioned ‘good reliable’ tenants to replace them. its more or less sorted out at this time but we anticipate when those condos really start to take on water ,we will once again have trouble getting tenants.