Dirty little secret

While desperate people living in $3 million Vancouver houses rioted for free salt this week (seriously, look at this), the country’s last remaining bubblicious real estate market was feeling smug. Toronto realtors are crowing about a boffo year in which the locals sold each other properties fetching $83 billion. A record, of course.

The average place now nets $729,000, up 17% over last year. The average detached in the inner Kingdom of 416 (as opposed to 905, where all the farmers and hairdressers live) ended the year ahead more than 20%, at $1.3 million. It took (on average) just 20 days to sell a house in the GTA, down by about a third from 2015. And across the region, properties sold for about 102% of what the vendors were asking. In other words, bidding wars, multiple offers, bully bids, speeding Audis and sharp elbows dominated the market.

But why?

After all, despite being full of crazies who would kill or maim for a bucket of free sodium, Vancouver has better weather, better scenery and politicians who routinely pimp real estate – even offering anyone living in a shack (under $1.2 million) free property taxes. So howcum in frosty Toronto, where people have to buy their own Sifto, face the prospect of toll roads, deal with murderous traffic, put up with condo construction on every corner, and routinely suffer visits by Drake and Adele, is the market still steamy?

How has this become the last, biggest mother of a bubble in the nation? A 20% year/year price increase when inflation’s barely over 1% with negative wage growth, is Kevin O’Leary nuts. Out there.

Well, Hanny may be on to something. He’s a certified financial analyst by trade, obviously with too much time on his hands and a blog reader (figures). “I’ve been a fan of your commentary for quite some time. I follow/analyze the Toronto real-estate market quite closely, and I have produced the following chart.”

It’s a good one. The blue line is total annual sales of houses through MLS in the Toronto region. Yes, a little growth over the past four years. Nothing weird. The red line, however, represents the number of homes available on the market. The plunge is dramatic. Historic.

Missing from the chart is average price. But you know what that would look like –  imagine the mirror opposite of the red line. As active listings have collapsed, selling prices have exploded.

“My question for you,” says Hanny, “is this: while everyone talks about a supply constraint, why does the discussion always focus on greenbelt development? Why don’t we talk about the fact that the number of people selling existing homes is RIDICULOUSLY low relative to the past and why this may be?”

It’s an insightful query. Toronto real estate continues to be hot because demand (although not historically high) is overwhelming supply (which is historically low). The result can be seen in DOM – down at the end of the year to a skinny 16 days. In fact any property that’s been listed three weeks is now widely considered to be massively overpriced, a genuine woofer, a former grow-op or murder location. Anything else will be gobbled in days, because for every decent listing there are half a dozen ravenous buyers.

In a region of more than 6,000,000, it’s a very odd thing only 4,746 properties were available for sale last month (down from 9,137 a year earlier). This represents only a few weeks’ worth of inventory, even at this disgusting time of year. No wonder prices have been spiking wildly, given there’s no shortage of house-horny greater fools willing to spend whatever it takes.

But why?

Does it not make sense that as property values smoke higher more and more people would want to cash out, collecting their windfall capital gains? Why do fewer homeowners sell when they could make the most profit? How does that make sense?

The reason – and a hallmark of a sick, unbalanced market – is that most people can no longer afford to move. Or believe that to be the case. If you sell a so-so house for $1.5 million, you have to buy another (unless you read this blog, have an epiphany and rent) for an equal amount. But the math doesn’t work. Commission (5%) leaves the seller with just $1.425 million, and when she buys there’s the double land transfer tax and other costs to consider. A new $1.5 million house actually costs $1.56 million. So even before the truck’s rented and the beer bought, the move’s cost $135,000.

It happened again last month. New listings fell another 11.6%, helping explain why thousands of people who own houses would rather renovate than move. After all, $135,000 can buy a pretty nice new kitchen, and you don’t need to change your driver’s license.

This is the dirty little secret of a market in trouble. The higher prices go, the fewer listings that materialize, leading to a demand-supply squeeze that creates higher prices – and fewer listings. Mix in some mortgage restrictions,  swelling interest rates and  public delusion, and it’s all a recipe for, well, you guessed it….

Salt disease.

192 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 01.05.17 at 5:58 pm

Well,I saw something today that I had never seen in my previous 15 years in Canada.

I’m sure you boys out east see it all the time, but I saw a van ,an Amazon van to be precise,cruising the side streets with full tire chains on.

Maybe this drone thing will catch on after all…

M42BC

#2 Victoria Real Estate Update on 01.05.17 at 6:02 pm

DECEMBER SALES SUCKED – VICTORIA (CITY) SALES ICE COLD

Victoria posted its lowest December detached sales total since 2008. Even worse than in 2012 and 2013, the two worst sales years for Greater Victoria since 1984. Below are the numbers from the local board:

December 2016: 17 sales
December 2012: 26 sales
December 2013: 28 sales

* 2012 – Greater Victoria posted its lowest detached home sales total since 1984
* 2013 – second lowest since 1984

Year-over-year, December sales were down an alarming 47%.

LOCAL REALTOR: BUYERS FROM ASIA “DRIVING THE MARKET”

Realtors also claimed that wealthy buyers from Asia were buying expensive properties with cash. Victoria is one of the most expensive areas in the region.

These salespeople also claimed that buyers from Asian would push prices higher and higher in Victoria, preventing any sort of market correction. One realtor claimed that house prices would double in the next 5 years as a result of these buyers buying everything in sight.

PERMANENTLY HIGH SALES LEVELS WAS PART OF THE GUARANTEE

Well realtors: what the **** happened?

You told locals that buyers from Asia had changed Victoria forever and that part of the change was permanently high sales levels in areas like Victoria which, you claimed, was one of the target areas for these buyers.

ONE BY ONE ALL FEAR MONGERING REALTOR CLAIMS WILL BE PROVEN FALSE

The guarantee of permanently high sales numbers in areas like Victoria has been completely smashed.

The facts will prove that nobody would have missed out by not buying in the last 2 years when realtors warned that it was a buy now or buy never situation.

A MAJOR MARKET CORRECTION AWAITS VICTORIA

As Garth said, Victoria will be pulled down by Vancouver. Clearly Victoria’s market correction process began months ago when sales began to fall. The next step in the market correction process for Victoria will be falling prices.

The facts will prove this to be true.

Guaranteed.

#3 isuckless on 01.05.17 at 6:03 pm

“routinely suffer visits by Drake and Adele”
This is the final nail in the coffin
We’ll played

#4 jess on 01.05.17 at 6:04 pm

red lines from the past and predatory contract sellers of the past

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/06/the-case-for-reparations/361631/

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-contract-buyers-league-20150724-story.html

#5 ThisIsNotAmerica on 01.05.17 at 6:12 pm

Or…it could just be that in TO people buy into a community (Little Italy, Greektown etc) for many reasons, includin ease of commute etc and once into a community they don’t want to leave? And…in terms of their house, to get the perfect house they do some reno’s?

As people have lived in a house and gained greater equity, they can take on a greater mortgage which does provide some mobility if they want to sell and move. Not sure your analysis leading to your conclusion is that compelling?

#6 Lulu on 01.05.17 at 6:13 pm

And this-http://globalnews.ca/news/3162259/toronto-house-sells-for-more-than-1m-over-asking-amid-record-year-for-home-sales/

What can we expect and the media is pumping it….

#7 For those about to flop... on 01.05.17 at 6:15 pm

Since I joined this blog ,two things have never been colder.

1)The weather…

2) The tone in VREU’s posts…

I hope one of them warms up soon…

M42BC

#8 Penny Henny on 01.05.17 at 6:23 pm

WOW!
years ago you would have said TO’s double land transfer tax had nothing to do with decreased supply.

A sales tax of $52,000 on the average detached home is now consequential. — Garth

#9 For those about to flop... on 01.05.17 at 6:23 pm

According to Zolo ,only 66 detached houses sold in Vancouver from Dec 5th to Jan 2nd despite having twice as much inventory as usual to choose from this time of year…

M42BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends

#10 Damifino on 01.05.17 at 6:25 pm

Years from now l’ll be able to say I was living in Vancouver during the salt riots of 2017.

Oh, the humanity!!

#11 Jim S. on 01.05.17 at 6:26 pm

even offering anyone living in a shack (under $1.2 million) free property taxes.

Garth,
Just trying to clarify this part of your post

You are referring to the Homeowners grant which reduces property taxes but doesn’t eliminate the tax ie. this doesn’t make the property taxes free

Taxes you don’t pay are free. Most seniors in BC get a pass. — Garth

#12 mitzerboy aka queencitykidd on 01.05.17 at 6:28 pm

nice…

#13 S.Bby on 01.05.17 at 6:29 pm

http://globalnews.ca/news/3162259/toronto-house-sells-for-more-than-1m-over-asking-amid-record-year-for-home-sales/

Another reason for low listings is people don’t want to sell when they think they can get more later.

#14 Brian Ripley on 01.05.17 at 6:34 pm

I have updated my Toronto Housing Chart:
http://www.chpc.biz/toronto-housing.html

More total sales than total listing provides an absorption rate of 112%!

But prices look like they have hit the wall. It’s the first time in months that all sectors have not posted new peak prices.

Earnings in Ontario appear to be rolling over as well:
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

IN THE LAST 10 YEARS, AVERAGE

SFD Prices are up:​
130% in Vancouver
45% in Calgary
143% in Toronto

AND Employment Earnings are up only:
25% in BC
36% in AB
25% in ON

And TD Economics has their January 4th report out. Employment gains for 2016 (YTD Nov) are mostly all part time (I added their chart to my earnings/employment study), the TD report is here: https://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/special/Part_Time_Conundrum.pdf

If the Trumpster gets to work on Jobs, Jobs, Jobs, I suspect a lot of skilled Canadian workers will move south where they will be in demand. Will that affect real estate prices here? I don’t know. One could argue both ways.

#15 Mike on 01.05.17 at 6:36 pm

I don’t see prices crashing anywhere, even in Calgary or Edmonton. No chance. This is Canada. We are special, rich and high wage earners :-)

#16 Polls R Phake on 01.05.17 at 6:40 pm

The global elite are making most of their money today because of technology without give a rats behind about the people. Well they have just been warned. Stop it.

https://www.rt.com/usa/372312-bilderberg-website-hacked/

#17 drydock on 01.05.17 at 6:41 pm

If this is true then don’t diss Vancouver anymore,you’ve got nothing to be smug about.

…………………………………………………………..

http://globalnews.ca/news/3162259/toronto-house-sells-for-more-than-1m-over-asking-amid-record-year-for-home-sales/?utm_source=Article&utm_medium=MostPopular&utm_campaign=2014

#18 Zhang on 01.05.17 at 6:42 pm

This China in Vancouver situation is getting weird, “Vancouver Real Estate Document Accidentally Names Chinese Government”

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/whoopsie-vancouver-real-estate-document-accidentally-names-chinese-government/

#19 InvestorsFriend on 01.05.17 at 6:49 pm

A province like Nova Scotia ought to be advertising for retired people to sell in Toronto and move to Nova Scotia and pocket a million dollars or whatever.

Even more so, much of Ontario could be doing the same. I suspect the house price craze has not reached Peterborough.

#20 Polls R Phake on 01.05.17 at 6:52 pm

The coffin lid on Greater Vancouver and TO home prices will not be shut until financial crimes committed to buy them are enforced. I have lived in Vancouver for 25 years and they have never been enforced. Ever. Should enforcement ever happen only then will you be able to say “Look out below !!”

#21 wallflower on 01.05.17 at 6:57 pm

westie! woof! precious

#22 hope & ruin on 01.05.17 at 6:58 pm

#2 Victoria Real Estate Update on 01.05.17 at 6:02 pm

Believe it or not, I actually think I preferred the graphs. At least I knew to skip* them.

#23 Bank of Millenial on 01.05.17 at 7:00 pm

Buying a house in GTA places an enormous ‘Rent’ premium (in the form of mortgage + other costs) over and above what the standard rental would draw in.

This is classic Adam Smith type economics stuff playing out. Above-average supply of dollars (a commodity) on one side, below-average supply on the housing side, meeting effectual demand. Marinade this all in stimulatory government regulation, and it is easy to see how we ended up here, at this insanely elevated level.

Why are people so shocked by this? This is a 241 year old formula that has been supported by evidence throughout history more times than you can count using both your fingers and toes.

The only important fact is that this level is not sustainable for most if not all of new local citizens adding to the current “effectual demand”. They are only adding to “effectual demand” due to temporary distortions.

There are two ways out, strong inflation of wages or mean reversion of the asset. Historically the way the market deals with these sorts of distortions is through the latter method.

Strong wage inflation in an international labour market is generally unlikely as it would nuke the bond market if it occurred at an international scale. Or at a local scale, make our labour less competitive and likely less employed which isn’t a good formula to service ‘Rents’..

This assumes we don’t ransack our currency for free lunch, which is unlikely given that Donald is bent on start up an international fight club.

#24 Ret on 01.05.17 at 7:02 pm

What a spectacle. My fellow Canadians, marauding like wild pigs, to get a few pounds of free salt that they probably don’t even need.

#25 jay on 01.05.17 at 7:04 pm

http://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/2017/01/05/donald-trump-toyota-manufacturing-mexico-jobs-nafta/96205464/ This can’t be good news for Ontario manufacturing. C

#26 135K on 01.05.17 at 7:07 pm

135K… Yeah… that’s a lots of cash for nothing.

A 500K balanced portfolio @ 5% return would need about 5.5 years (a few more with taxed ROI) to see this money again.

#27 tkid on 01.05.17 at 7:07 pm

Cauliflower alert: $3.98 in that No-Name supermarket in Niagara Falls. If you can find it cheaper elsewhere, you might want to stock up.

#28 Izzy Bedibida on 01.05.17 at 7:11 pm

Great points. My widowed mother is a prime example of the current listing shortage. Her house has been mortgage free for decades and dad kept it well maintained. House is on one floor, and a reasonable size for when my brother and his family come for extended visits. There is a reasonable sized yard for mom to enjoy her gardening. The neighborhood is fairly walkable and most importantly all of her friends are in the hood.
We have discussed other options, and mom understands that cashing out and renting is a viable option. Unfortunately the local rental buildings cater to riff-raff, and have the police visit 3-5 times a week-and no garden. Not many condo’s in the ‘hood.
We discussed condo’s in my ‘hood, but whats available is too small, and a proper sized unit for extended visits are rare and too expensive both in rent (and condo fees if she would buy)-and no garden.
Old ‘hood has several towns and stacked town projects. Layouts are cramped and awkward, plus lots of stairs. Not good for arthritic hips and knees and her young grand children. Again no garden.
Best solution is to stay in the house. Mom can easily handle it in her current state of health, plus it giver he something to do.Dad left enough money to cover bills and expenses. I suggested to mom that her and her friends should pool resources and hire a handyman to take care of maintenance items and heavy gardening. the costs would be cheaper than the maintenance fees on the large terraced condo she saw in my ‘hood. Mom’s widowed friends are all in the same position.

#29 Timmy on 01.05.17 at 7:15 pm

And as long as supply stays low– which looks like for the foreseeable future–how likely is it prices will drop significantly?

#30 Hoisin on 01.05.17 at 7:16 pm

“While desperate people living in $3 million Vancouver houses rioted for free salt this week (seriously, look at this)”
…………
That’s not salt Garth, it’s free MSG

#31 George on 01.05.17 at 7:20 pm

Re Polls R Phake

That’s because you have inept, corrupt politicians like Christy Clark who takes realtors to trade delegations in China. Mike Dejohg, BC Finance minister who owns 8 investment properties. Why do you think Trudeau is attending all of those cash for access fundraisers with wealthy Chinese businessmen? Why did a developer from China who made a contribution to the Liberal party get the Oakridge land in Vancouver sold by BC Transit? Why are a majority of the most expensive homes in Vancouver owned by numbered companies?

#32 Al on 01.05.17 at 7:21 pm

RE Victoria Real Estate Update:

Don’t worry, Asians won’t move to Victoria in droves because there is no shopping there.

#33 Fleabitten Monkey on 01.05.17 at 7:21 pm

Same goes for the Victoria market, smaller market, but reason for price escalation I would suggest is exactly the same. Looking at the inventory over the past year, it appears to be down >40% in some months year over year. Like the local real estate prez says, you can’t sell something which isn’t there. High demand faced with huge supply constraint.

#34 135K on 01.05.17 at 7:21 pm

#14

135K… Yeah… that’s a lots of cash for nothing.

A 500K balanced portfolio @ 5% return would need about 5.5 years (a few more with taxed ROI) to see this money again.

===

This would suggest that in order to move the market either the land transfer tax should go (why was it introduced, again?) or real estate commissions should collapse.

Maybe both.

#35 BobC on 01.05.17 at 7:26 pm

Don’t the hardware stores sell bags of salt in Canada?

#36 Self Directed on 01.05.17 at 7:26 pm

#1 For those about to flop… on 01.05.17 at 5:58 pm
I’m sure you boys out east see it all the time, but I saw a van ,an Amazon van to be precise,cruising the side streets with full tire chains on.
………………………………………………………………………
Amazon. Both innovative and practical. Great company.

#37 Fed-up on 01.05.17 at 7:28 pm

Ummmm OK so what will change the supply/demand dynamic? Will an avalanche of homeowners in the GTA just wake up one day and say, ‘Hey let’s sell our house.” And flood the market with listings???

If homeownership and stability were high on your priority list in the GTA in the past 10 years and you waited to buy because you felt prices would come down or your money was better invested elsewhere, it has proven to be a monumental blunder. Renting is nowhere near as simple as it sounds and suggesting family should move elsewhere is arrogant an unrealistic in many cases.

High School Dropout real estate agents have clearly outsmarted University educated Financial gurus this time. From the tone of this blog in recent months, I believe even Garth has backed off on any significant correction prediction if any at all in the 416 and 905 region.

#38 Self Directed on 01.05.17 at 7:31 pm

#6 Lulu on 01.05.17 at 6:13 pm

And this http://globalnews.ca/news/3162259/toronto-house-sells-for-more-than-1m-over-asking-amid-record-year-for-home-sales/

What can we expect and the media is pumping it….
……………………………………………………….
LOL! I’m just laughing at the placement of that basketball hoop… right below a window? Just plain dumb.

#39 Darryl on 01.05.17 at 7:31 pm

What a timely post today Garth . I was just thinking on this issue over the last few days .

I am one who sold his house recently . Went to cash ( for now ) and rented . The interest pays for my rent right now :)
But looking for another house in GTA right now ?? Forget about it . I spend much of my time telling my wife that it will all work out . Luckily she is ok with moving to a more affordable part of Ontario or out of Provence.
Go to realtor.ca map and zoom out so that you can see Ontario and Quebec . The difference in large red dots is insane.
I would say that there are even less right now .

Off topic ….
GO CANADA JUNIORS GO . This will be the only way we will have a chance to beat the Americans this year in anything . I hear if we win JT will spend 500 million for a parade .

#40 kc on 01.05.17 at 7:37 pm

Salt-a-geddon….

gotta love a west coast crisis…. Back when I was a kid there were no un shoveled sidewalks cuz all us kids would bang on doors with a shovel in hand and tell/ask home owners for 5 bucks to do their drive ways for them. My friends and I used to make a killing every snow fall….

lazy bastards today probaly tell you to go to hell if you said you will give them 20 to do your drive way…

#41 TCContrarian on 01.05.17 at 7:38 pm

“The higher prices go, the fewer listings that materialize, leading to a demand-supply squeeze that creates higher prices – and fewer listings.” – GT

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Similar scenario in any bull market which has begun to transition into a bear (ie.: fewer and fewer components making 52-wk highs).

Such as in the 70’s where a particular subset of equities, the “Nifty-fifty”, which had supposedly ‘decoupled’ from the rest of the market; it turned out to be a temporary phenomenon after all.

Like GT noted in a previous posting, there were 3 ‘bubbly’ markets, then 2, and now only one remaining; and within this last one, fewer and fewer ‘equities’ (ie. homes), available to ‘trade’…then comes the pause, and then the decline.

Glad to be observing all this from the comfort of my ‘rental’!

TCC

#42 Bottoms_Up on 01.05.17 at 7:42 pm

I heard the salt cartel paid people $100 to stand in line at the fire halls for a week.

#43 DTES on 01.05.17 at 7:46 pm

Sure it looks like salt – but it’s the new shipment of Fentanyl just in on a Lufthansa flight.

#44 Keith in Calgary on 01.05.17 at 7:54 pm

In some places……that $135K of taxes and fees buys you a nice condo on a beach where it never goes below 40 degress.

Guess it’s all relative eh ? Sitting in a traffic jam and paying for it when it is -20 does weird things to the human brain.

#45 cramar on 01.05.17 at 7:56 pm

If you sell a so-so house for $1.5 million, you have to buy another (unless you read this blog, have an epiphany and rent) for an equal amount.

————————–

Does everyone in Toronto believe in a flat Earth? That if you journey beyond the borders of the GTA you will fall off the Earth into the infinity void—lost forever?

A 3rd option is to sell, buy in a low-cost smaller area and pocket over $1 million for investment. Retire happy and eat cauliflower while others moan.

I cannot believe that Boomers in the GTA are so brain dead.

#46 CJBob on 01.05.17 at 7:56 pm

#2 Victoria Real Estate Update on 01.05.17 at 6:02 pm

A MAJOR MARKET CORRECTION AWAITS VICTORIA
The facts will prove this to be true.
Guaranteed.
______________
Ohh, a guarantee from a nameless person on the internet.

How about a cash wager then. Name the month in 2017, percentage decline and amount and I’ll take the opposite side of the bet. We’ll let Smoking Man hold the cash and be the final judge. Winnings could be taken or given to a predetermined charity. Up to you.

Waiting for the details or for God sake STFU.

#47 Fuzzy Camel on 01.05.17 at 7:59 pm

When you combine ignorance and leverage, you get some pretty interesting results.

The average human in Canada isn’t particularly sharp and they do act as a herd.

The shepherds will soon sheer the flock, but knowing when they are going to do so is anyones guess.

#48 aerozone on 01.05.17 at 8:04 pm

#24 RET

The media Fear Factor hits a homer here (what do you
think of the nice alliteration, Garth?).
These coasters cannot walk or drive on ice!
They also don’t know how to check a pond for a safe skate…so sad.

#49 mark on 01.05.17 at 8:04 pm

LOL The Salt Riots in District 7!

#50 Self Directed on 01.05.17 at 8:05 pm

He who finds a greater fool is no longer the fool. The ice is getting thin.. would be a good time to watch from the sidelines.

#51 Jimbo on 01.05.17 at 8:06 pm

The prequel to the video posted above.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3161889/following-salt-chaos-on-day-1-city-of-vancouver-to-hand-out-new-supply/

#52 Irish Stew on 01.05.17 at 8:07 pm

There were a lot of Asians primarily chasing all that free salt. Did they run out of money, too?

You mean the Canadians of Asian heritage? — Garth

#53 Jungle on 01.05.17 at 8:07 pm

Salty post. (and funny too) Your right nobody is selling because a big chunk of equity goes to the RE, then layer and other closing costs. Go faced the market for another detached and face insane bidding wars, rejection, and over paying again. Doesn’t make sense at all.

#54 For those about to flop... on 01.05.17 at 8:11 pm

Never to miss a chance of some cheap publicity Scotiabank is going to change it’s well worn slogan to…

Vancouverites….we’re saltier than you think…

M42BC

#55 aerozone on 01.05.17 at 8:16 pm

oooooohhhh… This is good today…well mixed metaphors
and eloquent waxings all around!
Happy New Year everyone, and a toast w/your favorite
maltie to our intrepid host.

#56 45north on 01.05.17 at 8:27 pm

Toronto realtors are crowing about a boffo year in which the locals sold each other properties fetching $83 billion.

Bill Morneau looks like a genius! New regulations protect CMHC but real estate in the GTA increases in value. In contrast to the rest of the country where it doesn’t.

#57 Smoking Man on 01.05.17 at 8:32 pm

It’s no surprise too me.

Market prices are set by supply and demand. Needed some renovations done at ufo central. Finally got someone. I’m overpaying but it’s the nature of the beast. Everyone is renovating.

Good thing after the Reno. Can sell on the spot.
Thinking March 2018. Peak.

#58 Victor V on 01.05.17 at 8:34 pm

#29 Timmy on 01.05.17 at 7:15 pm

And as long as supply stays low– which looks like for the foreseeable future–how likely is it prices will drop significantly?

===============

For prime areas in 416, I would not live life expecting much of correction. Best to either pull the trigger and buy within your means, or be happy renting a suitable property, saving and investing so as to build wealth.

Our family has rented a lovely North Toronto home for years at a fraction of what the ownership costs would be. Our landlord takes care of maintenance and we have time to enjoy our lives.

True, we don’t have ‘pride of ownership’ per se, but we very much have pride in our home. We have no debt, our investments have grown over the years, contributing to our peace of mind; we travel and are able to spend relatively freely without worry. Our homeowner friends have more stability admittedly in terms of long term roots in their homes (in some cases), but they also have more stress maintaining their homes and are generally house poor.

We don’t live our lives waiting for a real estate correction or crash; we simply live well and smile knowing that our future is going to be financially secure because of the shrewd choices we are making.

#59 Rook on 01.05.17 at 8:47 pm

Victoria Real Estate Update :
When do you guarantee this price reduction to happen?

#60 Ex-Cowtown on 01.05.17 at 8:50 pm

“The reason – and a hallmark of a sick, unbalanced market – is that most people can no longer afford to move. Or believe that to be the case.” GT
===================================

Absolutely correct. We ran into a similar situation years ago when Cowtown RE was going bonkers. We lived in a very nice upscale neighborhood but wanted to move into a closer in neighborhood. We looked for over a year at POS outrageously over-priced houses and finally gave up, sold out and left Cowtown, pocketing a massive tax free capital gain.

Those overpriced houses? That was the historical peak. They’ve never been back there again. And Cowtown? Haven’t missed it at all.

#61 TurnerNation on 01.05.17 at 8:53 pm

GTA might not slow down until 2018.

Yep this’ll buy $750,000.
Mo money, mo babes.

……
Variable Mortgages – Closed
TermEveryday RateLimited Rate
5 Year
2.30%
1.90%
https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/rates/ontario

#62 Educated people on 01.05.17 at 8:58 pm

#110 Smoking Man on 01.05.17 at 10:16 am

500 peer reviewed papers saying Man Made Warming is BS.

Read and weep Bottoms_Up

http://notrickszone.com/2017/01/03/1000-skeptical-peer-reviewed-climate-papers-should-put-un-ipcc-to-shame-says-harvard-astrophysicist/#sthash.9Sw9PLVC.cQkRWuBy.dpbs
—————————

Educated people know the best.

#63 Ace Goodheart on 01.05.17 at 9:00 pm

RE: “Vancouver has better weather” – apparently not anymore. Looks like they have sub zero temps and lots of snow. Check their latitude. Similar to Newfoundland. Only thing keeping them warm is an ocean current…

#64 Keeping y'all honest on 01.05.17 at 9:02 pm

The media should be held criminally liable when the manure hits the fan. It’s as if the Toronto Star and the Metro written by realtors. Specialized media like BNN, Bloomberg, or Report on Business are giving a more balanced view (lately) but the masses are being fed garbage. It really makes me sick to my stomach sometimes.

Somebody should really investigate where they get their money and who instructs them to continuously pump real estate as if it’s news.

#65 Oakville Sucks on 01.05.17 at 9:07 pm

What’s going on with the TREB COURT APPEAL?

We were supposed to hear the final ruling this week but the FAKE NEWS MSM is completely silent!

Any lawyers out there with some insight???

#66 toronto1 on 01.05.17 at 9:08 pm

interesting, but understandable. when people are over leveraged, which is a lot of new homeowners in the last 4-5 years- you simply cannot afford to sell. even with a 20% down payment, minus 5% for RE, double land transfer tax in Toronto, moving and lawyer costs, plus recovery of additional capital spent (reno’s etc, new appliances etc…) minus any HELOC or REFI and the profit is not that great.

dynamics change as in a dropping market- inventory increases with less buyers (witness Vancouver).

the other factor today is that with the past lax lending standards, and the bank of mom, many buyers of RE have purchased their final home in many cases, nicer homes then their parents have. In the past, you brought a townhome/semi/small detached and moved up, now, you dont need too.

#67 Andrew Woburn on 01.05.17 at 9:14 pm

Here’s how to fix high house prices.

“A future in which human workers are replaced by machines is about to become a reality at an insurance firm in Japan, where more than 30 employees are being laid off and replaced with an artificial intelligence system that can calculate payouts to policyholders.

Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance believes it will increase productivity by 30% and see a return on its investment in less than two years. The firm said it would save about 140m yen (£1m) a year after the 200m yen (£1.4m) AI system is installed this month. Maintaining it will cost about 15m yen (£100k) a year…

The technology will be able to read tens of thousands of medical certificates and factor in the length of hospital stays, medical histories and any surgical procedures before calculating payouts, according to the Mainichi Shimbun.”

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/05/japanese-company-replaces-office-workers-artificial-intelligence-ai-fukoku-mutual-life-insurance

#68 Andrew Woburn on 01.05.17 at 9:24 pm

You know, for all the clumps of hair that distraught blog dogs have ripped from their bleeding heads over the ever imminent crash of the Loonie, the battered fowl seems surprisingly resilient. Now this.

“The best loonie forecaster in the world says Canadian dollar will beat all its G10 peers this year”

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/the-best-loonie-forecaster-in-the-world-says-canadian-dollar-will-beat-all-its-g10-peers-this-year

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.17 at 9:30 pm

Yawn.
Ive seen bigger riots in vancouver for “free soil”.

i didnt see anyone get punched for salt.

I dread the insanity after Vancouver has a massive earthquake.

The city of 2 millionhas a few Army Reserve barracks for kids to drill in and a hodgepodge of over 15 municipal police depts……good luck co-ordinating anything once power, streets and lawfull control breaks down.
I hope to be retired far far away from the insanity of the LowerBrainland.

#70 Annek on 01.05.17 at 9:33 pm

Re: Lulu:And this-http://globalnews.ca/news/3162259/toronto-house-sells-for-more-than-1m-over-asking-amid-record-year-for-home-sales/

I cannot believe how ugly the house looks on the outside.
The buyer (and the bidders) must be crazy to pay this much for it. Another $ Million to fix the outside?

I was born and grew up in Toronto. As I see it now, it’s no big deal to live in Toronto. I moved to Mississauga a few years ago and don’t miss T.O at all. Plus, if I want to go downtown: It takes me less time to get downtown Toronto using Go or car from my home than it takes me to get to downtown TO from my Toronto workplace, using the subway or my car. ( I work at Bayview and 401) So when people talk about the convenience of living in TO, it’s not always so. The traffic and transit is awful.
Don’t know why people don’t cash out their homes and leave .

With respect to limited supply of housing, this is my observation:
My job is home visits to seniors and this is what I see:
Lots of seniors are sitting in their homes and not
wanting to change . Change is too scary for them. They also believe prices will never go down, they are comfortable in their homes, so they stay put.
I also see them living on the main floor, not being able to go to the basement or to the upper level for fear of falling. I see one or two people living in a huge house, not wanting to sell. For them, they could cash in on a nice condo, not worry about stairs , and have money from the sales of the house to live out the rest of their lives. But they continue to live in the $2 Million house, penny pinching. And they don’t have much cash. It’s all in their house.
I don’t get it.
But, if prices start to drop, then all these seniors may be motivated to panic selling which would further fuel the drop and increse supply.

#71 Johnny on 01.05.17 at 9:36 pm

You’re right. People cannot afford to move. But the way I see it is that there’s also a shortage of housing. I heard it is expected that the population of GTA will rise by 50% until 2022, and that building apartment buildings and renting them is a profitable business again. And since the people here are ready to take a mortgage that will eat most of their income, then only the raise of credit rates or a lot of people losing their jobs can change this stupid market. After all, I don’t think there’s a big difference on what % of their monthly income were spending the people here 20 years ago, and today. And (unfortunately for them) the prices of the houses is just a number for many, since they know that the only thing they have to do is to pay for the next 25 years an X amount of their income every month.

#72 Self Directed on 01.05.17 at 9:36 pm

#15 Mike on 01.05.17 at 6:36 pm

I don’t see prices crashing anywhere, even in Calgary or Edmonton. No chance. This is Canada. We are special, rich and high wage earners :-)
……………………………………………………………
It’s “High Wage” Mike again.

But he’s kind of right about the no crash thing. Slow melt more like it, but so far that’s only houses north of $1MIL. I believe the only way we will see a 40-70% correction is a significant recession coupled with rates returning to the 4-5% range.

#73 Smoking Man on 01.05.17 at 9:38 pm

Western De-industrialization hope that’s spelt right.

Race wars, killing the family unit. Legitimize every fringe freek, make people hate each other. Fund it with climate change funding machine.

Is the primary stratagy of globalists, who crave a one world government, not realizing when it goes rogue your left with tyranny. And it will go Rouge no matter the good intentions, human nature. Absoult power absolutely corrupts.

Guys like Butts who swallowed the wrong pill have no choice but to defend it. Fan base, identity. $$$$$

Justin Trudeau and Kathleen Wynee will be crushed next election cycle. Trump will call out the fraud via tweets, msm currently owned by globalists will be hissy fitting to no avail.

It’s over globalist, I offered my services on here for years. No takers.

But there was one who listend. He’s people talked to my people. We made a deal.

BIG Ass Developers read this pathetic blog.

God damn disclosure agreement.

#74 dirty little secrets on 01.05.17 at 9:41 pm

Vancouver accidentally named the Chinese government as a party in a controversial land swap deal

Ops…

http://www.businessinsider.com/vancouver-real-estate-document-accidentally-names-chinese-government-2017-1

#75 boonerator on 01.05.17 at 9:43 pm

#28 Izzy Bedibida on 01.05.17 at 7:11 pm

Great points. My widowed mother is a prime example of the current listing shortage….
=====================================
Great explanation, my parents would have been in that situation had they lived longer.

That famous quote: “”Science progresses one funeral at a time.” — Max Planck”

could be modified to read:
“Toronto SFH supply increases one funeral at a time”.

#76 Steph on 01.05.17 at 9:46 pm

I looked at the salt report thingy… Why would a city give salt to its resident? In Vancouver? Is it just raining there all the time there anyway?

People are nuts;
I am people;
Therefore I’m nuts.

Sad.

#77 pete on 01.05.17 at 10:07 pm

“lazy bastards today probably tell you to go to hell if you said you will give them 20 to do your drive way…”
——————————————–
Or there is some by-law forbidding kids from doing this without a special permit and a tax number.
If I had parents using this line on me I would tell them “OK, I’ll do it but you’ll pay all the fines I incur. And I’ll continue to shovel drives until YOU tell me to stop, not some court order, lest I be thought of as lazy.”

#78 the other white meat (pork) on 01.05.17 at 10:11 pm

#2 Victoria Real Estate Update on 01.05.17 at 6:02 pm

Have the prices of houses gone up or down since your increasingly shrill posts have first hit this blog? House prices are up I’d wager, and it’s a crying shame you missed out on such a great opportunity. Maybe the balanced portfolio will lift your boat high enough to float you out of your parents’ basement and into a place of your own.

That salt riot is the new face of Vancouver, and why so many people who were born here are fed up and moving to the hinterland. You don’t see scenes like that in rural Canada.

#79 Mark on 01.05.17 at 10:11 pm

Paraphrasing someone famous:

IT’S THE SALES MIX, STUPID!”

That is all.

#80 For those about to flop... on 01.05.17 at 10:14 pm

This Saltgate Scandal is going to cost taxpayers a lot more than originally thought.

Now the International Olympic Committee wants the city to change all the signs that welcome drivers to the city’s boundaries to reflect the city’s new monicker.

2002 Winter Olympics….Salt Lake City

2006 Winter Olympics…Torino

2010 Winter Olympics…Salt Lick City…

M42BC

#81 WUL on 01.05.17 at 10:14 pm

Ordinary folks who have made improvident real estate purchases should not be too hard on themselves over the next years. The suspenders snapping, bow tie wearing Masters of the Universe running the office space business in Calgary were goofier. They added 4 million square feet of empty space in 2016.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/calgary-and-edmonton/oil-slump-hammers-calgarys-downtown-office-real-estate-market/article33520672/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

#82 Smoking Man on 01.05.17 at 10:22 pm

#63 Educated people on 01.05.17 at 8:58 pm
#110 Smoking Man on 01.05.17 at 10:16 am

500 peer reviewed papers saying Man Made Warming is BS.

Read and weep Bottoms_Up

http://notrickszone.com/2017/01/03/1000-skeptical-peer-reviewed-climate-papers-should-put-un-ipcc-to-shame-says-harvard-astrophysicist/#sthash.9Sw9PLVC.cQkRWuBy.dpbs
—————————

Educated people know the best.
…….

Know the difference between schooled and educated, you will prosper.

#83 cramar on 01.05.17 at 10:22 pm

#69 Andrew Woburn on 01.05.17 at 9:24 pm

“The best loonie forecaster in the world says Canadian dollar will beat all its G10 peers this year”

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/the-best-loonie-forecaster-in-the-world-says-canadian-dollar-will-beat-all-its-g10-peers-this-year

——————-

Canadians are oblivious to what is so obvious to the rest of the world!

From the above link:

“Canada has got a housing bubble that puts the U.S. housing bubble to shame,” said John Hardy, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Denmark.

#84 Ronaldo on 01.05.17 at 10:23 pm

#52 Jimbo on 01.05.17 at 8:06 pm

The prequel to the video posted above.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3161889/following-salt-chaos-on-day-1-city-of-vancouver-to-hand-out-new-supply/
—————————————————————-
Wow and Wow. If people go crazy over salt, what would they do if there was a real disaster?

#85 Falseprophet on 01.05.17 at 10:28 pm

DELETED

#86 For those about to flop... on 01.05.17 at 10:32 pm

Paraphrasing someone stupid:

“IT’S THE SALT MIX,STUPID!”

That is all…

M42BC

#87 Bat Flipper on 01.05.17 at 10:36 pm

Even though we are in the middle of winter, never seen so few listings. I like to estimate that it will cost as much as 10% for realtors, taxes, moving expenses, mortgage fees, legals, etc. to move to a new home, so it can easily cost 100K+.

You also have to be able to qualify for the mortgage on the next property you buy. That became quite a bit harder with the new rules.

Also, worry about getting into bidding wars on the property that you buy, and the difficulty of even finding a home.

Really no point in moving.

The average Toronto family can’t do it.

There already struggling with the high electricity bills, cap and trade bills, higher costs on groceries, higher property tax bills, higher costs on everything really. Also, all the debt payments for those credit card bills.

They don’t have the cash to move.

#88 april on 01.05.17 at 10:36 pm

According to a reliable Canadian source, with an excellent track record, Vancouver real estate will start to “crash” by mid February, just when the interest free loan takes effect. This loan will have little” impact” on slowing the decline. Some condo owners appear to have pushed their asking prices way up even though some units have been on the market for 100 to over 200 days or more. How can people be so uninformed and foolish to buy these homes. I think some of these owners think even if they have to drop $100 thous they’ll still be getting what they wanted in the first place and the naive buyers things their getting a deal. An old woman, ex real estate, told me a few yrs ago that the real estate business is the most crooked in the world. I believe it.

#89 Bottoms_Up on 01.05.17 at 10:40 pm

#65 Keeping y’all honest on 01.05.17 at 9:02 pm
————————-
The Ottawa Citizen use to be a decent newspaper umtil about 2013 when it was sold to Postmedia. Now it is an advertising rag with stories pumped out by bots.

#90 Doug t on 01.05.17 at 10:41 pm

I love having first world problems

#91 Hotdogs from Heaven on 01.05.17 at 10:42 pm

Ask any technical analyst, when a stock, bond, commodity trades at higher and higher prices while the transaction volumes get lower and lower, what doe it portend?

The same thing with Toronto’s real estate market. It’s just a matter of time.

#92 Mother Nature on 01.05.17 at 10:49 pm

#63 Educated people on 01.05.17 at 8:58 pm
#110 Smoking Man on 01.05.17 at 10:16 am

Re: Dr. Willie Soon (Astronomer)
Soon is a prominent climate change skeptic who has received much of his research funding from the oil and gas industry.

According to David Suzuki:
“U.S. oil and coal companies, including ExxonMobil, the American Petroleum Institute, Koch Industries, and the world’s largest coal-burning utility, Southern Company, have contributed more than $1 million over the past decade to his research. According to Greenpeace, every grant Dr. Soon has received since 2002 has been from oil or coal interests.”

Source: https://www.desmogblog.com/willie-soon

#93 Bottoms_Up on 01.05.17 at 10:52 pm

#83 Smoking Man on 01.05.17 at 10:22 pm
—————————————
Sorry, Dr. Soon is an astrophysist (they study planets, not climate). Not sure he read 500 climate papers (1.5 per day, plus the time to find them all) in 2016 and made a decision whether humans are impacting the climate? Did you read those 500 papers? I certainly would believe a panel of experts brought together via the UN than some random washed up moon watcher.

And Dr. Ball is a geography major:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_Ball

One would think the oil industry could do better than this?

Try better next time, SM.

#94 Smoking Man on 01.05.17 at 10:55 pm

Got an entire book dedicated to being salt stoned.
That has shit sales at the moment.

As aways I’m a bit ahead of the curve.

To all you dogs who bought the pre edited version. With all the typos and horid Grammer and punctuating. Treasure it. It will be worth somthing.

Cause uncle Donald with his 19 million twitter flowers says. I read an amazing book here is the link.

Then you will see the pure drunken genus of my life.

Bottoms_up who never bought a copy will renounce man made climate change.

He’s been trained to fit in no matter what the cost.

#95 Smoking Man on 01.05.17 at 11:00 pm

#93 Mother Nature on 01.05.17 at 10:49 pm
#63 Educated people on 01.05.17 at 8:58 pm
#110 Smoking Man on 01.05.17 at 10:16 am

Re: Dr. Willie Soon (Astronomer)
Soon is a prominent climate change skeptic who has received much of his research funding from the oil and gas industry.

According to David Suzuki:
“U.S. oil and coal companies, including ExxonMobil, the American Petroleum Institute, Koch Industries, and the world’s largest coal-burning utility, Southern Company, have contributed more than $1 million over the past decade to his research. According to Greenpeace, every grant Dr. Soon has received since 2002 has been from oil or coal interests.”

Source: https://www.desmogblog.com/willie-soon
……

I give you the schooled.

#96 paul on 01.05.17 at 11:06 pm

What can go wrong?

http://www.torontosun.com/2017/01/04/buried-government-report-reveals-looming-fiscal-crisis

#97 conan on 01.05.17 at 11:08 pm

Well, maybe they don’t have freezing rain in China ,and they want it gone from their property, in the immediate sense.

No one got hurt, orderly chaos.

That’s not a riot, this is a riot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wa4U6TQlNI

#98 paul on 01.05.17 at 11:10 pm

Rentals are tight, did one tonight one year paid in advance.
Just to get the place!

#99 Metaxa on 01.05.17 at 11:46 pm

hey, all you haters…at least the lower Mainland hasn’t called out the Army.

Instead kids of all ages are playing shinny and hockey on natural, outdoor frozen ponds, fields, etc.

Neighbours are helping neighbours chip the very hard, very frozen, very packed snow and ice but you know that media that you complain about all the time?

Well now you chose to believe that same media cause it fits your purpose?

I’ll take a few jostling for a scarce supply or even a hockey riot once every ten years over the rage, anger, mistrust and hate you far right Eastern scrots display here on an ongoing basis.

There is no salt to be had in Mainland stores, I’m many kilometers away and my local stores have sold more de-icing stuff in the past month than they have the previous two years combined. And we don’t have 1/4 the weather issues the Mainland does.

If the same weather conditions hit TO it would be front page news across the country, the military would be called out, Macleans would do an in-depth, you all would be whinging even harder than you usually do.

#100 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.05.17 at 11:51 pm

People sweeping up tiny pieces of salt with their hands.
Only because it’s free.
Weep for me Vancouver.
Where are you going?

#101 Chelsea on 01.05.17 at 11:53 pm

Well it has been an interesting week of 2017 in Langley, BC. I hear Vancouverites fighting for salt!!.. Now that is funny. It has snowed a lot here, and more to come I figure. From what I have speculated the RE in the Gulf Island/Victoria prices will go up, because of low supply and high demand. I really do not think they will go down, as the sellers have their equity in their homes, no savings beyond that. More people living here, from Alberta and other provinces, homes will be in demand. It is getting very expensive to live here, MSP, Petrol and Property Taxes going up, namely a few.

I suppose we have to deal with it, or move out of B.C.!

Cheers…

B.C. has become a have not province.

#102 Metaxa on 01.05.17 at 11:56 pm

#91 Doug t.
I love having first world problems

Me too.
Caught ourselves the other day getting frustrated when picking out new cork flooring for the kitchen.

Told my wife this is almost as bad as getting wound up over paint.

Saleslady smiled, muttered something about first world problems.

Cork with microbevel, 11mm, 36×6 tiles, all natural so I can feel superior to all you who have vinyl.

#103 Nemesis on 01.06.17 at 12:01 am

“You mean the Canadians of Asian heritage?” — GarthoSan

#YouCan’tTellThePlayers… #WithoutAProgram…

https://youtu.be/FuiWxIm3yiI

#104 El Presidente Trump on 01.06.17 at 12:11 am

#95 Smoking Man on 01.05.17 at 10:55 pm

Got an entire book dedicated to being salt stoned.
That has shit sales at the moment.

As aways I’m a bit ahead of the curve.

To all you dogs who bought the pre edited version. With all the typos and horid Grammer and punctuating. Treasure it. It will be worth somthing.

Cause uncle Donald with his 19 million twitter flowers says. I read an amazing book here is the link.

Then you will see the pure drunken genus of my life.

Bottoms_up who never bought a copy will renounce man made climate change.

He’s been trained to fit in no matter what the cost.
—-
I, the Great Lord Emperor of Deplorables far and wide, hereby endorse the great smokey man and his deplorable book. Without him on my team to run my twitter communications I never could have saved the universe from the globalist cabal. Without his drunken insights from smoke filled casinos you would never have had the glory to burn coal again. Burn baby burn. With his encryption skills we avoided being hacked !! Believe me believe me. Wish I had his skills before the groper stuff! No extradition treaties with Ecuador is my payment. I believe he scammed the CRA for a helluva lot of Forex!!

#105 dzh123 on 01.06.17 at 12:12 am

Timmy – I reckon supply stays low as long as:

1) Over-leveraged people can afford the interest rates. If rates are allowed to rise in keeping with the US, eventually these folks will need to relent. Could be a long time or a short time. No idea.

2) Boomers don’t need to sell yet; it could be another 5-15 years. Whether due to age / health, dividing up inheritance for kids, quality of life / snowbirding or other reasons, it doesn’t seem like we’re there yet. Will Canada institute an estate tax in time for the boomers that muddies the waters here?

3) We avoid bad economic factors like price increases or job losses after an American renegotiation of NAFTA, downward trending fracking, solar costs and so forth. If we get a prolonged spell of this, many big groups including BoC, OECD, BIS have warned things will blow up.

4) Quality of Life remains worth the ever rising premium to live in Toronto. If health care cost inflation in Ontario isn’t addressed or if health care quality is allowed to stagnate, Toronto becomes a relatively lousier place to live. This is a huge but underappreciated piece as we grow our wrinklie population. Another key is that cuts will continue on city services if there’s less land transfer tax revenue yet annual property taxes are allowed to remain at the same rate as Alabama. Of course if they raise those rates, more of those overleveraged people get hurt as rates rise…

5) On that note, it is an accident of history / central planning that we’ve incentivized holding property through very low property taxes while penalizing transactions disproportionately. This has worked well for governments, real estate agents and investors, as well as the already-wealthy / in the market. It hasn’t worked well for the renters and the 160 thousand or so per year new immigrants most of whom will never be able to buy a house and will form an ever-growing voting bloc against rules that harm them.

I’ve been wrong before, so please feel free to show me the error in my thinking.

#106 NoName on 01.06.17 at 12:14 am

I know whay all those people are rushin’ to get that saly, sodium is very important for with in brain, from and to communication.
Maybe they are on to something…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d605rM0U3x0

7317

#107 Chaddywack on 01.06.17 at 12:22 am

I’m thinking something very bad right now about that video with the salt so I will adjust my thoughts to see if it passes Garth’s “DELETED” filter.

I notice that the majority of the people budging in line to get the salt in the video appear to be Canadians of Asian background, some of whom where rather uncivilized behaving in that manner. I would suggest that these individuals need to learn how to queue and behave with better manners than that. Truly embarrassing!

#108 I don't know on 01.06.17 at 12:35 am

“It’s an insightful query. Toronto real estate continues to be hot because demand (although not historically high) is overwhelming supply (which is historically low).” – Garth

——————————————-

Demand, to a large extent, is overwhelming supply because of massive immigration to the GTA. That is obvious. Also obvious, is that things are not going to change anytime soon. The GTA RE market (and particularly TO) is going to continue escalating in price for quite some time.

#109 I don't know on 01.06.17 at 12:37 am

“This is the dirty little secret of a market in trouble.” – Garth

—————————————————

It’s not in trouble for those that want to sell. Especially if they are speculators.

#110 I don't know on 01.06.17 at 12:40 am

“Mix in some mortgage restrictions,  swelling interest rates and  public delusion, and it’s all a recipe for, well, you guessed it….” – Garth

—————————————————-

I don’t feel sorry for the poor deluded of the last few years. After all, they’ve deluded themselves into very healthy gains in RE.

#111 Okanagan Man on 01.06.17 at 12:47 am

Hey VREU,

We get it; you think real estate market in Victoria is overvalued and a crash is guaranteed.

Did I miss anything ?

When is this crash going to happen?

#112 Milla on 01.06.17 at 12:55 am

What a news. Salt. Certain people or certain background are always in front of others grabbing any free food like there is no tomorrow disregarding co-workers. Do not tell that you have never seen this picture…

#113 For those about to flop... on 01.06.17 at 1:19 am

Hey Trackie,do you remember that tractor shed we were laughing about a month ago.

They found their Greater fool.

Sold.

Price of land…. $950k

Price of building….$2.25 and a piece of Hubba Bubba…

http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?areatitle=&ARPK=&ComID=&agentid=&MLS=R2113336&rowc=5&rowp=1&BCD=GV&imdp=10&RSPP=5&AIDL=233,234,236,235,237,238,239,240,241,242,243,244,245,246,247,855,432&SRTB=P_Price&ERTA=True&MNAGE=0&MXAGE=200&MNBT=0&MNBD=0&PTYTID=5&MNPRC=200000&MXPRC=1200000&SCTP=RS

#114 DON on 01.06.17 at 1:44 am

#7 For those about to flop… on 01.05.17 at 6:15 pm

Since I joined this blog ,two things have never been colder.

1)The weather…

2) The tone in VREU’s posts…

I hope one of them warms up soon…

M42BC
**************
She has become more confident and a tad bit snarky. (I like it).

She smells blood in the water. Realtors better start swimming.

On another topic: From your post it appears the values around you are declining. I know your area well, used to live on 41st and Boundary area, Champlain heights, Point Grey and Kits. Do people still believe this is a minor blip and the usual year over year increases will continue?

And you need to take you in-laws on a road trip and open their horizons on a new place to live, get that 1.8 million now and you all move to a midsize city (where you and the wife can get work and they can still be close to you). They can buy a house or condo/townhouse for 200-250 (nice condo) and you can buy a reasonable house. Get out of the Vancouver traffic jam.

cheers,

M45BC

#115 DON on 01.06.17 at 2:14 am

#47 CJBob on 01.05.17 at 7:56 pm

#2 Victoria Real Estate Update on 01.05.17 at 6:02 pm

A MAJOR MARKET CORRECTION AWAITS VICTORIA
The facts will prove this to be true.
Guaranteed.
______________
Ohh, a guarantee from a nameless person on the internet.

How about a cash wager then. Name the month in 2017, percentage decline and amount and I’ll take the opposite side of the bet. We’ll let Smoking Man hold the cash and be the final judge. Winnings could be taken or given to a predetermined charity. Up to you.

Waiting for the details or for God sake STFU.
***********************

At the same time you could put your big boy pants on and try to prove what she is hinting at is false. If you look at her message she is basically using a combination of history and what Garth has been saying for the last couple of years in a more polite manner.

We don’t choose the timelines, but what exactly will keep this housing market going. As Garth has had to repeat over and over again, ‘No asset class rises forever’

You still waiting for the LNG 50-100 thousand jobs coming true in BC?

Bottom line: Stop bashing the woman for introducing the future a little early.

#116 Ronaldo on 01.06.17 at 2:16 am

#69 Andrew Woburn on 01.05.17 at 9:24 pm

You know, for all the clumps of hair that distraught blog dogs have ripped from their bleeding heads over the ever imminent crash of the Loonie, the battered fowl seems surprisingly resilient. Now this.

“The best loonie forecaster in the world says Canadian dollar will beat all its G10 peers this year”
—————————————————————–
I agree with that as well contrary to popular belief. Watch oil hit the $75.00 mark and base metals take a run as well as the precious metals. And lumber too. Our dollar at 85 cents by end of summer. Going to be a good year for resource stocks. At least that is what my crystal ball is telling me. Better start loading up now.
Hey Tony, Teck stock is heading back up again, now over $28.00. Still a long way to $5.00. Those shorts must be getting pretty tight.

#117 DON on 01.06.17 at 2:16 am

#5 ThisIsNotAmerica on 01.05.17 at 6:12 pm

Or…it could just be that in TO people buy into a community (Little Italy, Greektown etc) for many reasons, includin ease of commute etc and once into a community they don’t want to leave? And…in terms of their house, to get the perfect house they do some reno’s?

As people have lived in a house and gained greater equity, they can take on a greater mortgage which does provide some mobility if they want to sell and move. Not sure your analysis leading to your conclusion is that compelling?
***************************

To answer your question. Try this.

As people have lived in a house and gained greater equity, they can take on a greater mortgage which does provide some mobility if they want to sell and move. Not sure your analysis leading to your conclusion is that compelling?

Or…it could just be that in TO people buy into a community (Little Italy, Greektown etc) for many reasons, includin ease of commute etc and once into a community they don’t want to leave? And…in terms of their house, to get the perfect house they do some reno’s?

#118 DON on 01.06.17 at 2:26 am

#55 For those about to flop… on 01.05.17 at 8:11 pm

Never to miss a chance of some cheap publicity Scotiabank is going to change it’s well worn slogan to…

Vancouverites….we’re saltier than you think…

M42BC
************
Or try honesty:
‘You are in more indebted than you think’

As not what your bank can do for you…but what you can do for your bank.

#119 Looney Baloney on 01.06.17 at 3:00 am

Does it make me a xenophobe if I make the observation the vast majority of salt grabbers seem to be of Chinese descent?

Xenophobia is a fear of foreigners. Those are locals. — Garth

#120 Mike in Toronto on 01.06.17 at 4:55 am

#37 Fed-up

“If homeownership and stability were high on your priority list in the GTA in the past 10 years and you waited to buy because you felt prices would come down or your money was better invested elsewhere, it has proven to be a monumental blunder. Renting is nowhere near as simple as it sounds and suggesting family should move elsewhere is arrogant an unrealistic in many cases.”

You say this… but…

We’re living in a nice apartment at Yonge and Bloor. I recently lost my job due to a restructuring, just as my twins were born. No stress herre.

We kept thinking about buying. I’m a handy guy and like home ownership, but… location, location, location. We can’t afford to buy anywhere near we would *want* to rent and the condos across the road want $500k+ for 2/3 the space, so poorly arranged it feels like even less. I mean we seriously considered it, but we couldn’t figure out how to put the furniture from our old 1br apartment into the 2br condo… (too many angled walls and hallways) so we rented an old 2br apartment. Much nicer.

I *could* have bought something 10 years ago, but I traveled the world a couple times, took up contracting, lived in several different cool apartments around the city, lived in Germany for a while. Yes, it could have been done with a house, but from my experience in home ownership, it would have been much harder.

It would have made heaps of money if I leveraged myself to the max and bought a giant home back then, but it’s impossible to know the future.

#121 Polls R Phake on 01.06.17 at 6:16 am

#94 Bottoms_Up on 01.05.17 at 10:52 pm
#83 Smoking Man on 01.05.17 at 10:22 pm
—————————————
Sorry, Dr. Soon is an astrophysist (they study planets, not climate). Not sure he read 500 climate papers (1.5 per day, plus the time to find them all) in 2016 and made a decision whether humans are impacting the climate? Did you read those 500 papers? I certainly would believe a panel of experts brought together via the UN than some random washed up moon watcher.

And Dr. Ball is a geography major:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_Ball

One would think the oil industry could do better than this?

Try better next time, SM.
__________________________________________

Hey genius. You know what is cool about have a Phd in science? You are SMART ENOUGH to learn almost anything. Like that Global Warming is a govt SCAM in order to tax fools like you. What govt job did you say you have exactly?

http://drtimball.com/_files/dr-tim-ball-CV.pdf

#122 Polls R Phake on 01.06.17 at 6:21 am

#93 Mother Nature on 01.05.17 at 10:49 pm
#63 Educated people on 01.05.17 at 8:58 pm
#110 Smoking Man on 01.05.17 at 10:16 am

Re: Dr. Willie Soon (Astronomer)
Soon is a prominent climate change skeptic who has received much of his research funding from the oil and gas industry.

____________________________________________

I have no formal education in climate science (like 99.99% of those that claim Global Warming is real). But you know what I can do? I can go here:

http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Temperature/Current.aspx

And see that 60% of the PLANET EARTH is below zero. I can also text my friends in Florida, California, Mexico and Australia who tell me the water at the beach is exactly the same height as it was when Al “BS” Gore spewed his bunk ten years ago.

#123 DoomandGloomer on 01.06.17 at 6:44 am

#48 Fuzzy Camel

“The shepherds will soon sheer the flock, but knowing when they are going to do so is anyones guess.”
——————————————————————–

It will be more than just a shearing. This ignorant herd is destined to become lamb chops!

#124 IHCTD9 on 01.06.17 at 6:54 am

#4 jess on 01.05.17 at 6:04 pm
red lines from the past and predatory contract sellers of the past

_____________________

Hopefully, your presence here on this blog will be in the past soon too…

#125 IHCTD9 on 01.06.17 at 7:16 am

#46 cramar on 01.05.17 at 7:56 pm

Does everyone in Toronto believe in a flat Earth? That if you journey beyond the borders of the GTA you will fall off the Earth into the infinity void—lost forever?

A 3rd option is to sell, buy in a low-cost smaller area and pocket over $1 million for investment. Retire happy and eat cauliflower while others moan.

I cannot believe that Boomers in the GTA are so brain dead.

___________________________________

The GTA voted for Trudeau and Wynne…

Might as well sock it to them, if they don’t pay to sustain that stinking receptacle of a city, the rest of the Province will somehow be suckered into it.

Interestingly, I was up near Apsley Ontario a few weeks back, and there were signs along the road advocating that the Earth is flat with the slogan “Boot the Ball”.

#126 Tony on 01.06.17 at 7:40 am

How has this become the last, biggest mother of a bubble in the nation?

Very, very simple answer and the correct answer. 100 percent of the cause can be attributed to the locals (mostly feeble minded Millennials) copying what the Chinese have been doing.

Remember the movie The Poseidon Adventure? The ones who followed all drowned while the scant few who did the right thing survived. The GTA real estate market is a mirror image of that movie and we’re getting to the part right before the credits now.

#127 IHCTD9 on 01.06.17 at 7:41 am

#117 For those about to flop… on 01.06.17 at 1:19 am
Hey Trackie,do you remember that tractor shed we were laughing about a month ago.

They found their Greater fool.

Sold.

Price of land…. $950k

Price of building….$2.25 and a piece of Hubba Bubba…
__________________________________________

I’ll bet the lichens will be glad to have the heat back on again.

Actually, can’t remember if that dump had a furnace or not. Probably no ductwork feeding the living quarters in the 4′ attic any way.

#128 Tony on 01.06.17 at 7:54 am

Prediction for today (Friday January 06, 2017). The Canadian dollar will drop one full cent or more today.

#129 jess on 01.06.17 at 8:17 am

blinded by developments and “jobs”

Two hundred-fifty foreign nationals, mostly from China, invested $500,000 each through the federal EB-5 immigration program. EB-5 investors get green cards for investing in developments, though the USCIS has terminated designation of Potala Tower as an EB-5 project.

Tom Skerritt & Tibetan Monks Break Ground on Potala Tower
Seattle Mayor Ed Murray, actor Tom Skerritt & developer Labson Dargey at the Potala Tower groundbreaking ceremony.
Groundbreaking ceremonies featured 14 shovels wielded by political leaders and local celebrities.
by Sean [email protected] Aug 29, 2014, 1:40pm PDT
==============================
By Mike Rosenberg
Seattle Times business reporter
Seattle-area developer Dargey charged with fraud after collecting $150M from Asian investors
Originally published January 3, 2017 at 1:56 pm Updated January 4, 2017 at 5:42 am
http://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-developer-charged-with-fraud-after-collecting-150m-from-asian-investors/

Seattle-area developer Dargey charged with fraud after collecting $150M from Asian investors
Originally published January 3, 2017 at 1:56 pm Updated January 4, 2017 at 5:42 am
eb5 program
EB-5 investor funds.”Dargey Development and Path America,
http://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/ambitious-developers-fast-climb-snagged-by-claims-of-deception/

Securities and Exchange Commission v Path America, LLC et al.
http://grassmueckgroup.com/pathamerica.php

#130 Me on 01.06.17 at 8:23 am

#102
You must be kidding-who in their right mind would move from a private home to a crappy box/condo, sharing hallways,elevators, noise etc., with a bunch of people you know nothing about. I know of people who did this move and were honest enough to admit their error.

Be healthier, stay in your own house.

#131 Renter's Revenge! on 01.06.17 at 8:37 am

I bet eliminating property transfer taxes and jacking up property taxes by a corresponding amount would get that real estate moving and put it to better use.

M37MB

#132 pBrasseur on 01.06.17 at 9:17 am

Interesting theory Garth but I’m not sure I buy it. People don’t sell in a bubble, they want to buy, this is normal.

Prices go up when the numbers of buyers exceed the number of sellers. Typically in a bull market people are reluctant to sell an asset which is perceived as gaining value (no most people don’t cash out). Of course they start selling massively when values decline. That’s the herd behavior we know very well.

You may have a point though that the extremely low number of sellers indicates the bubble is approaching or has seen its summit.

#133 Penny Henny on 01.06.17 at 9:21 am

#71 Annek on 01.05.17 at 9:33 pm
Re Seniors in Toronto– But they continue to live in the $2 Million house, penny pinching. And they don’t have much cash. It’s all in their house.
I don’t get it.
But, if prices start to drop, then all these seniors may be motivated to panic selling which would further fuel the drop and increse supply.
——————————————

That last part about the seniors panic selling is just wishful thinking. They would only panic if you told them they have to sell and move.

#134 IHCTD9 on 01.06.17 at 9:51 am

#112 I don’t know on 01.06.17 at 12:35 am

Demand, to a large extent, is overwhelming supply because of massive immigration to the GTA. That is obvious. Also obvious, is that things are not going to change anytime soon. The GTA RE market (and particularly TO) is going to continue escalating in price for quite some time.
______________________________________

Average amount of savings brought to Canada by immigrants: $47,000.00.

Median income of economic immigrants: $42,000.00

Median income of unskilled /refugees: $28,000.00

Remember a solid 50% of all immigrants make LESS than the above numbers.

Obviously, immigration can’t support 7 figure house prices – but they can and do pound wages down and increase job scarcity…

New stress test on under a mil houses and less than 20% DP means that the median household income in Toronto of 77K or so will support an approval for about 350K – barely enough for a leaky condo – forget a house. This unfortunate condition applies to half of the entire population of the GTA right now in 2017.

New buyers will need to save 150-200K+ to avoid the test via a big DP, or 200+K to buy over a mil. This will require a decade or two of saving, or the bank of Mom and Dad forking the DP. Those who borrowed the DP from the BMD and are scraping their payment at 2.44% will be euchred at their 5 year renewal as they actually will have to pay ~4.64% as rates are going up guaranteed. Plus if they want to refinance, they’ll need 20% equity to do so – what happens if houses go down over the next 5?

Things will start getting interesting when the very early Gen X’ers start retiring as they were the last to see any semblance of affordable housing in the GTA. Behind them, the millennials will have very few in their number who will have the financial horsepower to buy 1Mil+ houses.

I suspect the house owning culture so in vogue now will lose major steam over the next couple decades as more and more house hopefuls throw in the towel and bail on the idea permanently.

#135 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.06.17 at 10:30 am

#111 Chaddywack on 01.06.17 at 12:22 am
I’m thinking something very bad right now about that video with the salt so I will adjust my thoughts to see if it passes Garth’s “DELETED” filter.

I notice that the majority of the people budging in line to get the salt in the video appear to be Canadians of Asian background, some of whom where rather uncivilized behaving in that manner. I would suggest that these individuals need to learn how to queue and behave with better manners than that. Truly embarrassing!
————-
“queueing” and “manners”.
Quaint British concepts.
Unfortunately outdated.

#136 Keith in Calgary on 01.06.17 at 10:34 am

#116 Mila said…….”Certain people or certain background are always in front of others grabbing any free food like there is no tomorrow disregarding co-workers. Do not tell that you have never seen this picture…”

You just described the scene at the aisles in your local COSTCO where the have the food samples setup……..LOL !!!

#137 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.06.17 at 10:39 am

Out of salt?
I hear MSG is a good substitute.

#138 Penny Henny on 01.06.17 at 10:40 am

#132 Tony on 01.06.17 at 7:54 am
Prediction for today (Friday January 06, 2017). The Canadian dollar will drop one full cent or more today.
———————————————————-

54,000 new jobs for December. $526 million trade surplus.
And you’re calling for the CDN to drop by a cent today?
Maybe your name should be FIAT.
As in ‘Effed it again Tony’

#139 maxx on 01.06.17 at 10:47 am

#37 Fed-up on 01.05.17 at 7:28 pm

“High School Dropout real estate agents have clearly outsmarted University educated Financial gurus this time. From the tone of this blog in recent months, I believe even Garth has backed off on any significant correction prediction if any at all in the 416 and 905 region.”

Realtards can’t outsmart diddly. They simply have what the rest of society outside of FIRE does not: the appui of central banks and governments messing about with re regs in their little colouring books, with the express aim of milking as much tax revenue as possible out of its citizenry. Monstrous realtard commissions are simply a happy casualty of this program.

Tptb, in concert with realtards, and they alone, are responsible for the Frankenstein DNA which now constitutes Canadian re.

You can play your own game and become skilled in being happy in life without the millstone of re.
What a concept.

But make no mistake, realtards are not smart. How smart would you look if you were backstopped at every turn by government?

#140 NoName on 01.06.17 at 10:47 am

Incandescent bulbs rules as I always sad.

I helped my daughter and her friend with grade school science project 2-3 yrs back, where they dragged CFL and led bulbs thru the mud. They badmouth, malign and debase all commonly believed pro CFL and led bulb science.

It was funny I told them to ask teacher “inoscent” questions why CFL and led are better, and after teacher provided an answer, two 13yrs olds shredded her and her science to pieces, with GOOD SCIENCE. Can’t wait for next science project to do with my son, that will be something even more memorable.

And that brings me to my point, led lights eyes killer. I posted something similar few times already but you can’t have enough of good stuff. Did I mention that led lights make people crazy to, yes I did, few months back.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/articles/27751961/

I wonder what glare from stainless steel appliances does to human psyche.

#141 For those about to flop... on 01.06.17 at 11:18 am

DON on 01.06.17 at 1:44 am
#7 For those about to flop… on 01.05.17 at 6:15 pm

Since I joined this blog ,two things have never been colder.

1)The weather…

2) The tone in VREU’s posts…

I hope one of them warms up soon…

M42BC
**************
She has become more confident and a tad bit snarky. (I like it).

She smells blood in the water. Realtors better start swimming.

On another topic: From your post it appears the values around you are declining. I know your area well, used to live on 41st and Boundary area, Champlain heights, Point Grey and Kits. Do people still believe this is a minor blip and the usual year over year increases will continue?

And you need to take you in-laws on a road trip and open their horizons on a new place to live, get that 1.8 million now and you all move to a midsize city (where you and the wife can get work and they can still be close to you). They can buy a house or condo/townhouse for 200-250 (nice condo) and you can buy a reasonable house. Get out of the Vancouver traffic jam.

cheers,

M45BC

//////////////////////////////

Mornin Don,Yes it is all one way traffic in my hood at the moment regarding real estate.Down.

In my immediate ares there are a lot of retired folk that are happy living here and have no intention of selling no matter what the price is.

As far as my in laws go, I have tried to help them out with tips from the blog and lots of free labour to try and maintain the house for as cheap as possible.

Like a lot of people their age, they have lived in their house for 30 years and can’t imagine themselves elsewhere.

They bought the house to live in back in 1987 for $220k and up until the last decade selling it for a profit didn’t cross their minds.

I would have sold, but it’s their house and their decision as the house is eating them for lunch.

As for my wife and I ,we try not to go too far out of our neck off the woods until it’s time to go on holidays.

My wife walks 4 blocks to work and I try not to take on work more than a 20 minute drive from home.
I try not to burn time and the gas.

I did try to help out a Chinese Specuvestors last spring out in Whiterock for two weeks and it turned into a 2 month job and I hated every minute of it.

Thanks to you and all the other people for the GAP code support…

M42BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/fraser-ve/trends

#142 Londoner on 01.06.17 at 11:32 am

You don’t need a chart to see that listings are down – it’s plain to see on the mls website. However the question I asked yesterday still hasn’t been answered. Is there a shortage or reduction in the supply of newly created SFHs in the GTA? I recall people camping out at new development centres as far back as 10 years ago. However now I’m reading stories about people camping out for far longer and builders raising prices daily (and sometimes hourly). Yes, I know that a shortage or resale listings will drive demand for new builds but even if resale listings were to go back to 2013 levels, would there still be a problem with the supply of new SFHs (particularly low-rise) in the GTA?

#143 Damifino on 01.06.17 at 11:33 am

#14 Brian Ripley

If the Trumpster gets to work on Jobs, Jobs, Jobs, I suspect a lot of skilled Canadian workers will move south where they will be in demand.
———————————–

The Jobs, Jobs, Jobs Trump is talking about are for Americans, not foreigners.

#144 domain on 01.06.17 at 11:37 am

Good blog post today Garth. That phenomenon of falling listings due to the inability to afford a replacement home isa perverse one indeed.

#145 Damifino on 01.06.17 at 11:53 am

#46 cramar

Does everyone in Toronto believe in a flat Earth? That if you journey beyond the borders of the GTA you will fall off the Earth into the infinity void—lost forever?
—————————–

Many in Vancouver believe there is only barren wasteland anywhere east of Granville Street.

Others draw the line at Arbutus, or even Dunbar.

#146 Context on 01.06.17 at 12:00 pm

#134 Me:- This trend started in the year 2000 as seniors sold the home and moved into exclusive apartments and condos. This came them the freedom to lock the door and travel as snowbirds. They loved the idea of no more grass to cut or snow to shovel and invested the money for dividends.

#147 Ronaldo on 01.06.17 at 12:08 pm

#134 Me on 01.06.17 at 8:23 am

#102
You must be kidding-who in their right mind would move from a private home to a crappy box/condo, sharing hallways,elevators, noise etc., with a bunch of people you know nothing about. I know of people who did this move and were honest enough to admit their error.

Be healthier, stay in your own house.
————————————————————–
Exactly. And being at the front end of the Boomer group, that is what most plan to do that I hang out with anyway. And you’re looking at another 10 years or more before we make the move unless forced to do so for health or other reasons unknown now. So don’t expect a flood of homes coming on the market anytime soon.

#148 Capt. Serious on 01.06.17 at 12:08 pm

US jobs report out. Wage growth highest in 7 years. 12-month gain 2.9%. More interest rate hikes are on the way kids.

#149 Context on 01.06.17 at 12:14 pm

There is an exclusive apartment building in Guelph that has just been completed by a huge Toronto developer and is now taking rental applications for example.

#150 2017 on 01.06.17 at 12:18 pm

416 prices will go up 50% this year for detached.

Unfettered foreign money and migrants. powers that be will try to convolute and confuse you.

Good Luck.

#151 2017 on 01.06.17 at 12:19 pm

#132 Tony on 01.06.17 at 7:54 am
Prediction for today (Friday January 06, 2017). The Canadian dollar will drop one full cent or more today.

New to FX aren’t you? Beware the big boys and BoC.

#152 Bruce Wonton on 01.06.17 at 12:23 pm

DELETED

#153 Mark on 01.06.17 at 12:25 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/trade-surplus-november-1.3924172

“Canada posts 1st monthly trade surplus since Sept. 2014”

No surprise here. Canadian consumers are crashing due to RE deflation and tightening credit. Meanwhile exports, led by precious metals, are exploding.

Canada is running a $4.2B/month trade surplus with the US. Trade balances usually predict long-term currency ratios (not interest rates), so it logically follows that the CAD$ should be much stronger in the coming years.

#154 Montreal Guy on 01.06.17 at 12:27 pm

#71 Annek on 01.05.17 at 9:33 pm

Interesting observations as to the original topic; one might extrapolate further as to another contribution to the limited supply.

Many/most of those seniors have adult (boomer?) children. These children may be drinking the media soda that ‘home prices always go up’, and compelling their parents to stay in their “20% yoy” appreciating homes (instead of cashing out into ‘risky’ stocks or measly GICs); inheritance is at stake….

#155 Alex n Calgary on 01.06.17 at 12:27 pm

That video was pretty funny, looked like mostly gravel in that mix, very little salt, i liked the people scooping last little bits by hand! hee hee hee

Same story in Calgary, nobody is selling as they can’t get out of their mortgages, low supply = still not plunging prices. The saudis may have slightly cut oil production but you know Trump is going to wipe out any reduction in Shale Frak and get those pipelines going from the rich shale states. Nothing has changed, world production is still higher then demand, massive stores of oil, just more ploys by the traders to zip prices for short term gains. The big players know this and there aren’t going to be any new projects in oil production in Canada anytime soon, as much as people living off Heloc’s here in Calgary would like to believe.

#156 Euro observer on 01.06.17 at 12:29 pm

Just remove the idiotic government/CMHC ‘insurance’ and see what happens.

No bank will lend to any buyers and, make no mistake, these people are buying on credit as no one in GTA has any money, all the ‘net worth’ of the sheeple there is based solely on ridiculously overpriced home valuations.

Even doctors can’t afford to retire or buy a home in an overcrowded city with no economy whatsoever, just some financials and retail.

It is going to blow up big, it will be smelly but in GTA it will be epic.

As first step: prepare for increased municipal taxes and higher costs of everything. How is that higher monthly hydro bill looking (I bet is twice the amount from last year)

The raise and fall of the GTA housing market of 1999-2020 will be a case study in the future, just as the tulip mania.

#157 Victor V on 01.06.17 at 12:50 pm

Kudos to dogs who’ve been buying rate reset prefs. Who said fixed income can’t be exciting?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CPD.TO

#158 James on 01.06.17 at 1:01 pm

#58 Smoking Man on 01.05.17 at 8:32 pm

It’s no surprise too me.

Market prices are set by supply and demand. Needed some renovations done at ufo central. Finally got someone. I’m overpaying but it’s the nature of the beast. Everyone is renovating.

Good thing after the Reno. Can sell on the spot.
Thinking March 2018. Peak.
———————————————————
Peak for the bungee? Ha ha. You will never leave the comfort and safety of UFO central. Just had to sign in and have a look. Your in for a whacking in 2018, sell now.
https://www.lilypad.ca/etobicoke/57-james-street

#159 InvestorsFriend on 01.06.17 at 1:05 pm

Canada 5 Year Bond Yield Bounces Around

This rate which is said to be tightly correlated to the five year mortgage rates has been jumping around quite a bit.

It had hit all-time lows of about 0.60% in 2016 but then doubled to about 1.20% in the last couple months of the year. Then back to 1.07% yesterday but up again to 1.13% today.

http://ca.investing.com/rates-bonds/canada-5-year-bond-yield

All those rate reset preferred shares are very much inversely tied to this 5 year Bank of Canada rate.

#160 Eaglebay on 01.06.17 at 1:12 pm

#25 jay on 01.05.17 at 7:04 pm
“http://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/2017/01/05/donald-trump-toyota-manufacturing-mexico-jobs-nafta/96205464/ This can’t be good news for Ontario manufacturing.”

Ontario legislated itself out of business.
Maybe they could learn a thing or two from Trump. Let’s put the blame where it belongs.

#161 Doug in London on 01.06.17 at 1:16 pm

Wow, a mad panic to get free salt. Why isn’t there a similar level of enthusiasm when stocks or ETFs go on sale like they did this time last year?

#162 maxx on 01.06.17 at 1:19 pm

#97 paul on 01.05.17 at 11:06 pm

“What can go wrong?

http://www.torontosun.com/2017/01/04/buried-government-report-reveals-looming-fiscal-crisis

The historical trail of crumbs will show that the smartest piloted their assets to the place of lowest tax exposure, as stupid government will turbo-charge taxation to ever newer heights.

#163 Ret on 01.06.17 at 1:30 pm

#135 “I bet eliminating property transfer taxes and jacking up property taxes by a corresponding amount would get that real estate moving and put it to better use.”

Toronto taxes are probably the lowest in Ontario. Toronto residents on a typical street, all pay less property taxes than they should because the city reaps tens of thousands of dollars if even one house on the block sells.

Putting you children’s names on the deed will keep the tax “subsidy” for a resident and his family going on for generations.

The property taxes get more distorted with every new idea from John Tory. He won’t be able to find enough money from increasing service charges and road tolls to keep the party going.

The supreme insult for Ontarians living outside of T.O. is that the Liberal governments of J.T. and Wynne so blatantly cater to Toronto. That would be the buying of the Toronto vote done with tax money from municipalities struggling to pay all their firefighters, police and paramedics big city $100,000+ salaries but only getting property taxes from a small town or rural tax base.

#164 Braj on 01.06.17 at 1:37 pm

#74 Smoking Man on 01.05.17 at 9:38 pm
Western De-industrialization hope that’s spelt right.

Race wars, killing the family unit. Legitimize every fringe freek, make people hate each other. Fund it with climate change funding machine.

Is the primary stratagy of globalists, who crave a one world government, not realizing when it goes rogue your left with tyranny. And it will go Rouge no matter the good intentions, human nature. Absoult power absolutely corrupts.

Guys like Butts who swallowed the wrong pill have no choice but to defend it. Fan base, identity. $$$$$

Justin Trudeau and Kathleen Wynee will be crushed next election cycle. Trump will call out the fraud via tweets, msm currently owned by globalists will be hissy fitting to no avail.

It’s over globalist, I offered my services on here for years. No takers.

But there was one who listend. He’s people talked to my people. We made a deal.

BIG Ass Developers read this pathetic blog.

God damn disclosure agreement.

What kind of services are those?

#165 Braj on 01.06.17 at 2:08 pm

#126 Polls R Phake on 01.06.17 at 6:21 am
#93 Mother Nature on 01.05.17 at 10:49 pm
#63 Educated people on 01.05.17 at 8:58 pm
#110 Smoking Man on 01.05.17 at 10:16 am

Re: Dr. Willie Soon (Astronomer)
Soon is a prominent climate change skeptic who has received much of his research funding from the oil and gas industry.

____________________________________________

I have no formal education in climate science (like 99.99% of those that claim Global Warming is real). But you know what I can do? I can go here:

http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Temperature/Current.aspx

And see that 60% of the PLANET EARTH is below zero. I can also text my friends in Florida, California, Mexico and Australia who tell me the water at the beach is exactly the same height as it was when Al “BS” Gore spewed his bunk ten years ago.

Who’s spewing bunk now? Are you mentally incapable of realising one point of subjective data is irrelevant? Climate change does not mean ‘warm everywhere right now’.

Watch Before the Flood.. Although, you and SM both will unlikely be alive to witness. Both climate change believers and deniers opinions are irrelevant at this point. There is only action that has been made, set in stone, and action to be done. The latter usually in line with profit.

#166 Context on 01.06.17 at 2:17 pm

#160 James:- Whose tiny home is that on James Street in Etobicoke? Too late to sell that now because all the listings there sold off at the top during August, 2016 according to the stats.

#167 For those about to flop... on 01.06.17 at 2:21 pm

This is the house I was talking about out in Whiterock.

This is a good example why real estate has become a religion in some cities.

The guy struggled to speak English and was the greenest developer I have ever worked with.

Did not even know what drywall tape was and yet he made out like a bandit.

He was seriously struggling and so as a favour to another developer I work for in town I went out there to try and turn it around.

The photo is the old house that they bulldozed but the details are updated.

He bought it for less than a million and then someone bought the new building for over 3 million, half a million over assessed value.

A lot of the neighbors houses look just like this one, so they are now the proud owners of a 3 million dollar house surrounded by knockdown ranchers.

One guys happy ending, is another guys nightmare…

M42BC

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA3NlU3Mg==

#168 traderJim on 01.06.17 at 2:41 pm

Great post. Nice to see a new take on things and some new information.

Just saw Carlos Ghosn on Bloomberg making quite clear he understands his company will have to adapt to new policies under Trump.

So Trump is already having a huge effect, without passing a single law or even being in office.

Guess all those crazy tweets aren’t so crazy after all.

#169 Ronaldo on 01.06.17 at 2:47 pm

#163 Doug in London on 01.06.17 at 1:16 pm

Wow, a mad panic to get free salt. Why isn’t there a similar level of enthusiasm when stocks or ETFs go on sale like they did this time last year?
————————————————————-
Because you can’t salt your pork with etf’s.

#170 bdwy sktrn on 01.06.17 at 2:58 pm

new vanawesome assessments

1. +53% rural, oceanfront
2. +35% e van residential
3. +14% rural, farm -WA

a staggering dollar volume. looks like bc assesment nailed a local peak this time.

the new forms show data back 5 yrs.
last 3 on e van shack were 20, 20 and 35 on a deteriorating shack built generations before smokey’s sensible shlong branch brickpile. (hey SM -nice tree, if you climb it naked you can see more ufo’s)

maybe 10-15% down from here but no crash unless the ice lasts thru april and road salt is traded pound for pound with bcbud

#171 traderJim on 01.06.17 at 3:05 pm

#167 Braj

Just 2 really simple questions:

1)Has polar ice melted or not?
2)Have water levels risen and caused disaster or not?

#172 boonerator on 01.06.17 at 3:14 pm

I wonder if novel writers are taking note of a new location for inheritance based muurrrdddeerrr mysteries.

“Lets go for a walk on the icy path over a ravine, granny, what could go wrong?”

#173 Penny Henny on 01.06.17 at 3:17 pm

Peak for the bungee? Ha ha. You will never leave the comfort and safety of UFO central. Just had to sign in and have a look. Your in for a whacking in 2018, sell now.
https://www.lilypad.ca/etobicoke/57-james-street
————————————————————

57 James Street. Hmmmm.
Ford ranger pick up out front, gazebo in the yard and a boat on the side driveway.

https:[email protected],-79.5397571,3a,75y,166.43h,76.07t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1svf_AL2wu-YsoZGkP2Yr7_Q!2e0!7i13312!8i6656!6m1!1e1

Look out for teachers Smokie. They’ll burn you at the stake.

#174 For those about to flop... on 01.06.17 at 3:28 pm

I wrote the below post a few weeks ago before the Saltgate Scandal happened.

I live a 5 minute drive away from the now infamous Fire hall 17 where all the pushing broke out.

Note what I wrote about up Fraser st about the fruitstands.

If some fresh fruit is brought out every one rushes over despite the fact that there is 11 other places to buy fruit in the same area.

Its a cultural thing also people are scared that someone might get a better product than them but it is also the fear of missing out…

M42BC

#197 For those about to flop… on 12.16.16 at 6:32 pm
North Arm Road , Bodwell road , Ferris road , Wilson road
are what Vancouver streets respectively?
http://vancouverstreetstories.com/histor-of-south-vancouver/

///////////////////////////

Hey Bill,just wanted to let you know that I got your message and enjoyed the link.
I live in between 33rd ave and 41st,two of the streets mentioned and I’ve never heard of this.

On Fraser st. there are little historical markers strapped to the streetlights that I read to learn about the history of my neighborhood ,while my wife is inside the fruit market throwing elbows desperate to get the last bunch of decent looking bananas.

In between 41st and 49th avenues on Fraser there are 11 fruitstands with all sorts of ethnicities jostling for position…it is super competitive.

I have to stay out on the sidewalk yelling tactical advice as I am not allowed to compete as they don’t have a heavyweight division…

M42BC

#175 IronMike on 01.06.17 at 3:35 pm

That had to be the weakest “riot” I’ve ever seen. More like 40 people briskly walking.

I recently moved to the GTA (from Calgary), sold my place and will rent in the 416 indefinitely, not because I cant afford a place, nor do I think that housing prices are collapsing soon, but because the idea of borrowing $1 million for a cruddy place in the inner city is rather unappealing

#176 Tudval on 01.06.17 at 3:38 pm

4-5 years ago I was telling anyone who’d care to listen that the squeeze is coming. That it would result in 30-40% price growth (it was more). In C13, a big area with tens of thousands of detached homes there are a grand total of 4 (four) homes on the market. Those would be >$3 mil newly built. Lowly bungalows only come on the market when owners are carried out on a stretcher to the old folks home. Where would they go, even if you pay them 1.5 mil? Riviera anyone? Perhaps Nice is not so nice these days. And that goes for a lot of places.. except Toronto of course, which is hot even in December.

#177 Context on 01.06.17 at 3:47 pm

#175 Penny Henny:- The tiny house has no garage or driveway as the boat is next door at another home. The tiny home must put a hole through the hedge to park a vehicle, and to sell the tiny home a garage needs to be built in the backyard as well.

#178 Sim on 01.06.17 at 4:29 pm

I own a condo in downtown Vancouver. My husband and I looked for a two bedroom condo to rent in New Westminster so we could sell our one bedroom. The rental rates were unreasonable but I was willing to pay up to $1800 for something that was decent. I had to give up after 4 months or searching. Despite being a lawyer with a good income and good references married to a political consultant I could not secure a rental. We are going to start again in January. Houses and condos are not going on the market in Vancouver because at this point you cannot even get a rental to live in.

#179 The Technical Analyst on 01.06.17 at 4:58 pm

Climate Change DOES exist. We have 4 seasons, each year

Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter

The climate does change, but not because of CFC’s, acid rain or space radio waves.

#180 The Technical Analyst on 01.06.17 at 5:04 pm

#155 2017 on 01.06.17 at 12:19 pm
#132 Tony on 01.06.17 at 7:54 am
Prediction for today (Friday January 06, 2017). The Canadian dollar will drop one full cent or more today. New to FX aren’t you? Beware the big boys and BoC.”

Actually, the Canadian dollar has been doing quite well now in the past week, it gained 3.5 cents!

… I trade FOREX markets on a daily basis.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C1g4OqrUAAAwzyU.jpg:large

#181 Context on 01.06.17 at 5:18 pm

Penny Henny might be correct in her posting but there are a few things that are odd. This area of Toronto was parceled out and changed over time into various property lines. The home with the double garage has a parking lane which may have been decades old and the ownership had land to build a double garage on it. The hedge appears more on his property which is trimmed with flowers out front, whereas the other hedge is not trimmed with weeds sticking out. The brick on the garage matches the house. The roofline on the garage is almost touching this home and if was built by the other home it would violate the building code; yet the shingles match the double garage with the other tiny home.

#182 Tan on 01.06.17 at 6:12 pm

#178 IronMike on 01.06.17 at 3:35 pm
I recently moved to the GTA (from Calgary), sold my place and will rent in the 416 indefinitely
—————————————————

May be you can elaborate your selling experience in Calgary?

#183 acdel on 01.06.17 at 6:46 pm

#144 NoName

http://machinedesign.com/blog/3-myths-surrounding-leds-0

#184 Ace Goodheart on 01.06.17 at 7:48 pm

#166 Ret:

“The supreme insult for Ontarians living outside of T.O. is that the Liberal governments of J.T. and Wynne so blatantly cater to Toronto. That would be the buying of the Toronto vote done with tax money from municipalities struggling to pay all their firefighters, police and paramedics big city $100,000+ salaries but only getting property taxes from a small town or rural tax base.”

Nope. That would be Toronto getting some of the money it sends to Queens Park and Ottawa, back again. There is a large net outflow of money from Toronto, to the Feds and the Provincial Government. We get very little of it back.

What should happen, is Toronto should become a City State (similar to Hamburg Germany). Toronto collects its own provincial taxes, and the Feds collect their share. That is what we need. Then all of the complainers living in small towns whose development is funded by pork barrelling politicians siphoning money from the GTA and then transferring it to their ridings with their name on everything, can try to raise their own funds for their own community centres and public projects, from their own tax base.

#185 Vancouver on 01.06.17 at 10:33 pm

SIM # 181
There is rental shortgage for sure and what is available is overpriced. Perhaps 1% tax on empty condos will free up some of the 20,000 (estimate by the city) of empty condos and more will be available. In the meantime, city is advising we spy on our neighbours and report any empty units… Effective housing policies of the 21st century

#186 Doug in London on 01.07.17 at 11:10 am

@Ronaldo, post #172:
Yes, but with the generous dividends the ETFs pay, you can buy enough salt to preserve a supply of pork to last many years. That way you don’t have to get caught up in a riot to get free salt. By the way who, these days, salts their own pork?

#187 westcdn on 01.07.17 at 3:34 pm

I know rich men. One of my favorites lived in Roberts Creek on the Sunshine Coast. The hippies hated his wealth but then they painted rocks and put them on the shoreline. George was green. He bought acreage from some Americans after the owner died. They had no idea what the property was worth – I was envious. I would have bought that property in a heartbeat if I had the money and knew it was for sale.

I purchased property in Maderia Park (aka Pender Harbour) – I did well. There is lots of old money in that port of town. I planned to retire there but the ferry got too high plus it is isolated. My father didn’t so – he would call me and laugh about the weather I was suffering in Calgary. Something about a pot to piss.

#188 LG on 01.08.17 at 2:06 am

#71 Annek
Would have to agree with you. Born & lived my whole 60 yrs in TO…not easy getting around on TTC, faster to drive downtown, traffic’s crazy, not like it used to be, etc. So glad we sold our SFD, moved to Pickering where we can take GO & be downtown in 40 min. stress free. Close to lake & the Rouge. Don’t miss TO one bit & would never move back.