El Predicto

ice

So, happy new year. You made it. Now what?

A few of the things you’d be wise to expect in 2017.

(1) All mortgage rates increase as yields swell in the bond market. This train’s already left the station. The Fed hike two weeks ago was the precursor to two (maybe three) more this year, which has already shot US home loans higher and caused several Canadian banks to move. Since rates are set in the bond market, it’s largely irrelevant what the Bank of Canada does. If you can lock in, do it. Go long. The lowest costs in your entire lifetime are now in the past.

(2) The flip side of higher rates: preferreds continue to ascend, giving not only a fat divvy but a capital gain for those smart enough to buy when it was suggested here. Get an ETF full of rate-reset preferreds, not perpeptuals or too much US exposure. As the cost of money rises so will capital values, and meanwhile they pump out a 5% dividend with a tax credit, further increasing the effective return. Why would anyone put money in a GIC for 2% and pay tax on 100% of the gain when these things exist?

(3) Right wing populist Brexist-Trumpism continues to spread, hitting France and Germany. Financial markets missed the significance of this twice in 2016, thinking people could not possibly be so thick and myopic. But they were. They want walls, barriers, homogeneity, and a return to 1958 when things were so great. Inflation jumps as a result. Corporations become less efficient. The flow of capital and cheap labour is disrupted. Free trade’s less free. Prices and wages rise. Commodities come under pressure. The good news is markets now expect it – as the events of the night of November 8-9 showed.

(4) In Canada, T2 hopes legalizing weed makes a stoned nation forget the economy. Good idea. It will not be a banner year for the frozen north, given that commodities are likely to perform less well, NAFTA may come under attack, federal spending will balloon the deficit, new punitive taxes will emerge on the 1%ers and there’s the combo of epic household debt (65% of it mortgages) and failing demographics. This year there are more wrinklies over 65 than kids under 15. And Millennials now constitute the largest segment of society. They all want condos. And mortgages. God help us.

(5) Stock markets outperform every real estate market in Canada. Vancouver is expected to see a double-digit price decline during 2017, taking Victoria and the rest of BC with it, which will leave a single urban centre in positive numbers. But this will last only so long as listings in Toronto are severely constrained. How long? See below.

(6) Oil supplies surge as Trump turns on the fracking machine. No matter what OPECers do to curtail production, American energy companies, many of them steeped in expensive debt, drill, inject and pump and suck like crazy, all in the name of US self-sufficiency and economic expansion. Global supplies climb. Crude, some say, will be below $40 in 2017. Ouch for Alberta, and the Canadian landscape.

(7) It’s a year when timing equity markets proves impossible. Again. Trump is wholly unpredictable. The man Tweets national policy in the middle of the night, without consultation nor buffer. Timing failed in 2016 (freaked-out investors sold off in February then missed the giant Canadian rally; they sold off again pre-election and watched the Trump Bump pass them by). Here we are with a crazy president and a bull US market long overdue for a correction, so the odds mount that a pullback is coming. Investors who react to this will lose big. It will be short-lived. Those with a steady hand and a balanced portfolio do well.

(8) The bull does not die in 2017. Equities react as the Trumpians let ‘er rip. Corporate regs are slashed, rolling back many safeguards put in place after 2009. Taxes are reduced, especially for businesses. Climate change is ignored as King Coal resurrects. Energy sector profits bounce back. Protectionism helps foster more inflation and a budding wage-price spiral. The US federal deficit soars again on stimulus infrastructure spending and reduced corporate revenues. The deplorables laud this as an investment in the future. It isn’t. Stocks love it anyway.

(9) Despite rate creep, the Moister Stress Test and a crappy Canadian economy, there’s a steamy spring housing market everywhere in Canada that a listings drought remains. Seven years of extreme markets have convinced most homeowners prices will rise forever and, besides, who can afford to move? Meanwhile, inexperienced buyers rush in to ‘beat’ higher mortgage rates. Many will regret this by Christmas, where listings start to pile up and prices moderate. 2016 was the year of peak house. By the end of 2017 we all wonder how that was not obvious.

(10) Toronto stocks do not gain 21%, as they did in 2016. It becomes evident that was a unique opportunity, when equities caught the wave created by a doubling in oil prices that looked impossible last winter. If there’s one lesson investors needed to learn it’s that you never exit an asset class. Set the correct weightings within a diversified portfolio, and stick to them, rebalancing no more than twice a year.

(Bonus) This blog is hacked by a shadowy cabal of Russian cats, who manage to steal all deleted comments and publish them on Wikileaks. Readership increases to four billion.

129 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 01.01.17 at 2:38 pm

Please god can I be first in 2017. Also for world peace yada yada…

#2 TurnerNation on 01.01.17 at 2:43 pm

People which follow such esoteric things suggest our ruling elites make most changes in leap years (see: 2016).

Notice they changed our language to change our minds:
– Brexit
– Deplorables
– Make US great again
– All those gender pronouns and new terms.
– Refugees (as opposed to ‘victims of elites’ genocidal campaigns’, which they are)

(It began decades ago. If I say the phrase: “Not that there’s anything wrong with that” you know exactly what I mean and where it came from. That (mind control) programming we all lapped up. And paid for.)

Elites must be laughing and whooping it up on their 6-star resorts this NYE. Joke’s on us.

2016: where elections didn’t matter. The outcomes were pre-arranged

#3 Randy Belwood on 01.01.17 at 2:46 pm

A new novelty science, predictive linguistics

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVAI07f-5M0

Predictions for 2017

#4 bill on 01.01.17 at 2:53 pm

Happy New Year Garth and Dogs!
beat those russian hacker cats to the punch Garth and publish first!
[are you sure they will hack up computers? usually its just a hairball…]

#5 AK on 01.01.17 at 2:53 pm

FOMC Meeting Schedule 2017
(FOMC Meeting calendar )
 Month   Date Event
Jan/Feb 31-1 FOMC Meeting (Jan/Feb) 
March 14-15* FOMC Meeting (Mar)
May 2-3 FOMC Meeting (May)
June 13-14* FOMC Meeting (Jun)
 July 25-26 FOMC Meeting (Jul)
 September 19-20* FOMC Meeting (Sep)
 Oct/Nov 31-1 FOMC Meeting (Oct/Nov)
 December  12-13* FOMC Meeting (Dec)

#6 Sheane Wallace on 01.01.17 at 2:59 pm

Is it Steve Poloz on the picture?

His balls look quite frozen/judging by the way he speaks.

#7 Derek R on 01.01.17 at 3:04 pm

Meowski!

#8 Tccontrarian on 01.01.17 at 3:06 pm

I can only fully agree on one of these predictions: #10

#9 Debtslavecreator on 01.01.17 at 3:08 pm

Brilliant Garth
And gold breaks below 1000
Median GTA home prices are 8-10% lower in Dec than the April high
The CAD is in the low 60s by late summer

#10 Steve French on 01.01.17 at 3:15 pm

FOOOOIIIIIISSSTTTTT!!!!!

#11 Polls R Phake on 01.01.17 at 3:31 pm

(10) This blog has its evil contents leaked by an insider which is then blamed on Russian hacking.

Happy New Year !!

#12 AB Boxster on 01.01.17 at 3:37 pm

T2 hopes legalizing weed makes a stoned nation forget the economy.

————————————-
Priceless!
Best line of 2017. (so far)

#13 JSS on 01.01.17 at 3:51 pm

HNY!

Any predictions for TSX?

Last year I predicted 14,200 by end 2016.
This year I predict 16,120 (+5.5% increase) by end 2027

#14 JSS on 01.01.17 at 3:52 pm

^ oops. I meant 2017.

#15 Bram on 01.01.17 at 4:00 pm

2016 version could use an evaluation:

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/01/el-predicto-3/

#16 the jaguar on 01.01.17 at 4:00 pm

Re # 10…..The Democrats weren’t hacked. It was a leak, not a hack. That’s why Seth Rich was shot in the back five times and still had his wallet on him.

#17 InvestorsFriend on 01.01.17 at 4:12 pm

Why Invest in GICs?

Get an ETF full of rate-reset preferreds, not perpeptuals or too much US exposure. As the cost of money rises so will capital values, and meanwhile they pump out a 5% dividend with a tax credit, further increasing the effective return. Why would anyone put money in a GIC for 2% and pay tax on 100% of the gain when these things exist?

*****************************************
Somewhat Rhetorical question but there are some reasons:

Lack of Access to ETFs

Most GICs are probably purchased at the bank from a bank employee who is not registered to sell individual stocks. ETFs trade like stocks and need the same licence. The bank employee can typically only put you in deposits including GICs, or in mutual funds, and not ETFs.

To buy an ETF you need to open an account with a licenced broker or open a self-directed account.

Most people don’t have a large enough portfolio to qualify for an account with the broker’s at their bank and will not even know such brokers exist.

Many, perhaps most, people are not interested in opening a self-directed account because of a lack of knowledge, a lack of confidence, a lack of time or some combination of these.

Insistence on zero risk

Many people just can’t accept the notion of their money decreasing in value and will opt for the certainty of the GIC

Portfolio Too Small

With a small portfolio a single balanced mutual fund or ETF is enough. If you have a total of $10k just about the only thing that matters is that you save more. 10k or even probably 50k is too small to bother putting 20% of that into preferred shares and the difference in return in dollars would not amount to much anyhow. In the early years what matters is stuffing money in. Annual contributions tend to dwarf returns in the first few years of investing.

What Taxes?

Not sure, but I would think that most GICs are in non taxable accounts.

Be Thankful?

Perhaps we should be thankful. SOMEONE has to own all those GICs that fund mortgages. And as stock investors (via ETFs or otherwise) do we really want the competition?

#18 Mark on 01.01.17 at 4:14 pm

Okay, okay, I said I wasn’t going to do ‘predictions’ this year (though I had a decent record at last years’, correctly predicting the continued fall of Canadian RE prices, the rise of the TSX, the doubling of junior gold stocks, and outperformance of senior gold vs. the TSX).

1. US Fed policy interest rates will be unchanged next year, and the US Treasury yield curve will flatten once again. The major US equity indices will close down YoY.

2. Canada will go into explicit CPI deflation. The BoC will cut 25bp.

3. The TSX Composite will end in the 16.5k range, give or take.

4. Large-cap gold (ie: GDX ETF) will have another 50% year. Junior gold (ie: GDXJ ETF) will double.

5. CAD$ up to $1.2CAD/USD$ at some point in the year.

6. RE prices will continue to fall into the 4th post-Budget 2013 CMHC change year. CAD$ mortgage rates will be unchanged YoY as rising risk premia eats up the reduction in GoC yields.

I’m not going to be able to participate in the blog comments for much of the next month or two, so Happy New Year to all, and don’t miss me too much!

#19 down and out on 01.01.17 at 4:17 pm

T2 could not be in the country for Canada ‘s 150 years start ,hope he makes it for July 1st Why is leadership so rare the rest of us peasants celebrated without him . I believe once money starts flowing and accelerating the brakes will be tested (interest rates) heavily.

#20 Polls R Phake on 01.01.17 at 4:28 pm

The Phake Noooz of the main stream media continues.

http://nypost.com/2017/01/01/washington-post-retracts-story-about-russian-hack-at-vermont-utility/

#21 Ontario's Left Coast on 01.01.17 at 4:29 pm

Thanks, Garth, and Happy New Year to all.

You touched on RRPs, but do you have any predictions for Canadian REITs and short-term bond ETF performance in the coming environment of gradually increasing interest rates? Thanks!

#22 Metaxa on 01.01.17 at 4:46 pm

As far as ‘triggering’ and ‘safe spaces’ well those are just silly terms used by the regressive left.

Most intelligent people don’t live in the world or triggers and safe spaces.

Woosh!

(that is the sound of the entirely missed point as it flies past you)

#23 Gord on 01.01.17 at 4:58 pm

Happy New Year

4 billion plus 1

#24 Smoking Man on 01.01.17 at 5:09 pm

(10) This blog is hacked by a shadowy cabal of Russian cats, who manage to steal all deleted comments and publish them on Wikileaks. Readership increases to four billion.
…….

Seeing that my deletes dominated the hack. I go on to sell 200 more books. Better fix the spelling I’m thinking.

#25 DON on 01.01.17 at 5:29 pm

A good year to go fishing.

Happy New Year, Garth and blog dogs.

#26 Entrepreneur on 01.01.17 at 5:32 pm

Happy New Year, everyone!

Would like to thank Garth Turner and his gang for the financial blog, a big thank you!

Also, would like to thank: Dr. Mark Sircus, Dr. Carolyn Dean, Dr. William Davis, Dr. D.C. Jarvis, Dr. Cass Ingram. All great doctors! And many others who are, lets say, challenging the practices of today.

I am one of those who does not believe in prescription drugs full-time (for short periods, fine) so I am on my own trying to figure health problems. Btw, getting better. Always was a health nut but apparently our food is not so healthy.

I hate it when any leader says that they only eat organic food as if that is an answer. And when they say that I know that safety of our food is last on the list for protection.

Interesting year, 2017.

#27 MS on 01.01.17 at 5:32 pm

Happy New Year! Happy
sesquicentennial Canada!
Thank You Garth!

#28 Shawn on 01.01.17 at 5:44 pm

I agree with pretty much everything you have indicated. I’m not sure if that’s a good or bad sign.

#29 Smoking Man on 01.01.17 at 5:54 pm

2017 predictions

1) The climate scam. Funding mechanism for gobalism is outed.
http://www.infowars.com/exposed-govt-climate-change-data-100-fabricated-by-noaa/

2) Smoking Man gets arrested under new laws that make you a criminal if you say gender confusion is same type of mental disorder like belemia.

3) My 2nd son gets married and I’m a grandpa.

4) Smoking Man moves to equidor.

5) Doug and Ryan have a fist fight as one of them get better at writing.

6) Context knocks up a Mexican chick.

7) Smoking Man goes into the archives re reading booms posts.

8) CAD dollar is toast unde communists.

9) Gerald Butts has an orgasmic moment when he helps bring the Canadian economy to its knees.

10) Garth and Smoking Man have a beer together.

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.01.17 at 5:56 pm

I have it on very good authority that THESE are the Russian Cats Garth is referring to……

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://www.facebook.com/Kanpur-Bengals-130296700376073/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjb64TnhKLRAhUM0WMKHf3EAFUQFggpMAc&usg=AFQjCNEMvuZTvr2k4L3xGCEToxrmd5HZmg

Apparently the “Rooskis” cant get enough of them.
Sells almost all of them to the Russians at 3-5k a pop plus expenses to travel there from BC.

Russians….cat lovers…..who knew?

#31 Why not US on 01.01.17 at 6:05 pm

Why avoid the US for preferred shares? Given the rates are going to increase in the US wouldn’t it make sense to invest there also?

#32 David McDonald on 01.01.17 at 6:08 pm

Happy New Year Garth,

Go a bit easier on T2’s changes to weed legislation. Sure it is trivial in the global scheme of things but people are going to jail for selling something arguably less dangerous than alcohol. The hypocracy and wastefulness of our current laws are shameful and need changing.

People go to jail for selling alcohol, too. We do we need another state-sanctioned intoxicant? — Garth

#33 Smoking Man on 01.01.17 at 6:08 pm

For 2017

T2 will be referd to as Peter Pan in my posts.

Wynee will be labeled ugly big nose.

Noterly will be called clueless warlock.

Kevin O leary the next Prime Minster of Canada

#34 TS on 01.01.17 at 6:09 pm

Places like Austin, TX are paying 4 cents per KW-H for energy on their new solar contracts.

There’s no way that coal is coming back.

It’s done

#35 The Technical Analyst on 01.01.17 at 6:11 pm

Seems my comments are underappreciated by Garth and co. But here goes again:

(7) It’s a year when timing equity markets proves impossible. Again. Timing failed in 2016.

Really? Wanna bet?

Market timing only fails to those who are financially blind to seeing it. Market timing is no different than getting a sales flyer on Saturday for Wednesday’s deals and waiting to buy a few days later for less.

Garth, maybe you never wait for things to go on sale? You should try it, makes you money by saving money.

Buy low, sell high. That’s market timing.

For most people, obviously less talented and omniscient than you, it doesn’t work. Lows and highs are known only once they’ve passed. — Garth

#36 Smoking Man on 01.01.17 at 6:13 pm

I googled russan cats. Art of war, know the enimes.

https://www.google.com/search?q=russian+chicks&client=ms-android-samsung&biw=360&bih=560&prmd=ivn&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiT1cuEiaLRAhXDLyYKHbPFDrUQ_AUIBygB

#37 Rob Fortier on 01.01.17 at 6:14 pm

Can you recommend some good ETF’s that have rate-reset preferreds?

#38 Nonplused on 01.01.17 at 6:20 pm

It will be interesting to how high household debt, rising taxes and interest rates, and a sluggish economy mix it up in the new year. Taxes are already higher than people can afford (at least given their current lifestyles) which is why household debt goes up every year! Rising home equity was the only thing bailing us out, so if that stops going up trouble lies ahead.

#16 the jaguar

Why would they shoot Seth Rich after wikileaks already had the emails? Also there wasn’t anything in the leaks really other than the corrupt workings of the Democratic party, which most people kind of expected anyway. Unless he had another thumb drive on him which had even worse stuff and that’s what the killer took killing him seems a road too far. They haven’t even off’d Assange or Snowden yet. And Snowden released far more sensitive materials.

If Rich was killed for being the source, first that’s pretty sloppy, whoever ordered the hit will get caught, and second, why is Obama kicking out all the Russians? Aren’t we being told these were “Russian hacks”? One or the other doesn’t add up.

I don’t think enough facts are available yet to make sense out of all this apparent craziness.

#39 forget the economy on 01.01.17 at 6:24 pm

In Canada, T2 hopes legalizing weed makes a stoned nation forget the economy. Good idea. It will not be a banner year for the frozen north, given that commodities are likely to perform less well, NAFTA may come under attack, federal spending will balloon the deficit, new punitive taxes will emerge on the 1%ers and there’s the combo of epic household debt (65% of it mortgages) and failing demographics. This year there are more wrinklies over 65 than kids under 15. And Millennials now constitute the largest segment of society. They all want condos. And mortgages. God help us.

—-

Legalizing weed has no affect on any of the ills listed.

Making weed “illegal” was a costly, useless distraction.
It did not make the nation focus on the economy any better.

Arguably standard of living in Canada, US, Europe has dropped considerably since the introduction of “war on drugs”.

#40 Context on 01.01.17 at 6:24 pm

My prediction for 2017 is that the Smoking Man will be interviewed on USA TV, and his sales will climb frantically. He will have young women begging for autographs as they chase him down the streets of Toronto. There will free drinks for the Smoking Man everywhere in exchange for a photo to be hung by the bar. Cartons of cigarettes will find the way to his home for an endorsement from his business manager who will negotiate a deal.

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.01.17 at 6:32 pm

My Apocalypto2017 Predictions

Kim Jong Un ( the 3rd Fatty) dictator of North Korea fires off a US bound ICBM which self destructs on re entry but not before Donald Trump defecates in his ample trousers.

China rams a US Navy ship patrolling in the South China Sea causing alarms to ring all over the world and stock markets to swoon. Donald Trump defecates in his new trousers

France elects Marianne Le Pen as the new President instigating new “Frexit” worries. The euro is doomed. Donald Trump brags about “Freedom Frexit Fries” are the newest food served in Trump Hotels world wide. Connoisseurs defecate in their pants…..

Vladimir Putin invades Estonia on a “trumped up” charge of “Protecting Russian Interests” and NATO goes on full alert , causing Donald Trump to wish he had invested in thirsty undergarments…..

Garth refuses Smoking Man’s entreaties for a beer swilling afternoon in a cigarrette smoke filled casino somewhere just off the 401……

Alec Baldwin is arrested by Homeland Security for mocking Donald Trump one too many times. Canada offers asylum. Justin Trudeau soils his panties.

The world gets warmer

#42 Slim on 01.01.17 at 6:35 pm

I’m thinking, the guy with icicles is a climate change denier.

#43 Tony on 01.01.17 at 6:40 pm

Re: #13 JSS on 01.01.17 at 3:51 pm

If I knew when the bankers are going to unload all their overvalued stocks I’d predict DOW 4,500 and TSX 4,750.

I’ll predict TSX 9,600 by yearend 2017.

#44 Tony on 01.01.17 at 6:44 pm

Re: #37 Rob Fortier on 01.01.17 at 6:14 pm

It’s a fallacy that preferred stocks go up with higher interest rates. They generally always follow the common shares upwards or downwards but to a lesser extent. Preferred dividends are usually higher than the underlying dividends of the common shares.

Learn about the various kinds of preferreds. — Garth

#45 Smoking Man on 01.01.17 at 6:47 pm

For most people, obviously less talented and omniscient than you, it doesn’t work. Lows and highs are known only once they’ve passed. — Garth
……
Really? Dude , an Alien blessed your blog. He read your mind, thought , Garths a good shit.

I’m insulted. But than again, I’m not most people…
Sorry for taken it the wrong way..

Been on earth too long….. time for a trip to outer space. Going now.

Relax not a suside note.. I’m just going up there. Plasma flyers bitches.

#46 Smoking Man on 01.01.17 at 7:00 pm

40 Context on 01.01.17 at 6:24 pm
My prediction for 2017 is that the Smoking Man will be interviewed on USA TV, and his sales will climb frantically. He will have young women begging for autographs as they chase him down the streets of Toronto. There will free drinks for the Smoking Man everywhere in exchange for a photo to be hung by the bar. Cartons of cigarettes will find the way to his home for an endorsement from his business manager who will negotiate a deal.
…..

Writers are like Nectonite sky pilots. No respect.

The monkeys that memories the script and regurgitate on q get all the glory, poor buggers. Fame guarantees you can’t walk into a rub and tug threw the front door.

Your life theñ becomes a back door man.

That’s sad.

#47 Linda on 01.01.17 at 7:02 pm

Prediction: going to be a crazy 4 years. Whether Trump is actually crazy – well, here is hoping that if he is that his version of reality doesn’t end up ending reality for the rest of us.

As for the markets/economy etc. – going to be a challenge, for sure. Hope 2017 will turn out better than expected for us all.

#48 Smoking Man on 01.01.17 at 7:08 pm

Seneca day 4.

Only indoor place I can smoke without lunatics trying to save me from oxagun.

Some folks don’t need saving. Only tall whites and greys will understand this post.

The force is with me . Eat your heart out sub spicey aliens.

I’ve taken over planet earth. What ever deals Zumanga made with you..

It’s over, his kid Soros. He’s mine.

Just watch…..

#49 Maj on 01.01.17 at 7:13 pm

#29 Smoking Man on 01.01.17 at 5:54 pm

You missed two predictions:

1. Smoking Man grows a brain, then realizes that global warming is real and that not taking action would be dangerous.

2. Smoking Man and Trump move to Russia and save North America from stupidity. Their master, Putin, takes all proceeds from SM’s book sales in Russia.

#50 Smoking Man on 01.01.17 at 7:18 pm

Peter Pan
Ugly big Nose
Warlock.

Your entrance into the house of knollage.

https://youtu.be/uk_ilymWo4s

#51 Rexx Rock on 01.01.17 at 7:25 pm

Its sad but some people are calling T2 ,Canada’s Zoolander Prime Minister.

#52 Grey Dog on 01.01.17 at 7:29 pm

I would love to have a Russian Blue Cat. Apparently they are somewhat hypoallergenic…though…I would need a 100% guarantee.

I’m not sure the Grey Minature Schnauzer that rules our home would approve of this addition.

#53 conan on 01.01.17 at 7:32 pm

Trumps first five moves:

A mega Predicto thread,

1) Helps with Mosul, but later regrets not using the bomb from day one.

2) Supports Israel with its decision to go one state. Promises to move US embassy to Jerusalem.

3) Obama Care is gone. Uses a combo private and public plan. Canada later copies.

4) Pulls American troops away from Russian borders. Apologizes for Ukraine.

5) Invades Libya…..

#54 Smoking Man on 01.01.17 at 7:34 pm

To my confused and lovely libralism.

This is the end. 2017 my crazy mind twisted friends.

https://youtu.be/agwMwbmMNbk

#55 Smoking Man on 01.01.17 at 7:41 pm

Climate Change , day two, January 22

https://youtu.be/k26hmRbDQFw

#56 the Jaguar on 01.01.17 at 7:43 pm

#38 nonplused

http://www.globalresearch.ca/breaking-obamas-sanctions-against-moscow-intended-to-box-in-donald-trump-evidence-that-hacking-of-dnc-accusations-are-fake/5565481

#57 Fish on 01.01.17 at 7:44 pm

What I can see, a yard full of new frigtliner truck s up from usa, the driver said he was in last year, he is dropping this shipment, and headed back to USA on Wednesday and not coming back next year

#58 I See The Future on 01.01.17 at 7:48 pm

Yeah, bring on higher rates. I predict GTA real estate collapses this spring.

#59 Gasbag Boomer on 01.01.17 at 7:58 pm

I’ll go half in with SM. O’Leary to lead the PC party.

#60 Smoking Man on 01.01.17 at 7:59 pm

For normals

https://youtu.be/Q7OpJAzQJyo

#61 Smoking Man on 01.01.17 at 8:03 pm

DELETED

#62 Andrew Woburn on 01.01.17 at 8:11 pm

– Forecast: The collapse of the euro zone is drawing near

“Combine the social stresses caused by immigration with high unemployment and you have the makings of a political revolution.

“The Dutch will head to the polls in March and the far right, anti-EU Party for Freedom is leading in opinion polls,” says Jennifer McKeown of Capital Economics.

“Soon after that, we expect an early Italian election at which the anti-euro Five Star Movement would perform well. In April and May, the National Front’s Marine Le Pen [another EU skeptic] looks set to make it to at least the second round of the French presidential election.”

Ms. McKeown says she is not forecasting that an anti-euro party will come to power in 2017 or that Greece will default, “but the risk of these events is much bigger than consensus economic forecasts seem to imply.”

Her caution is admirable, but may be overdone. The sheer volume and heat of anti-euro sentiment is swelling. Expect it to reach critical mass in 2017.””

She could have added that the Brexit negotiations themselves will highlight the cracks in the EU edifice as more nations will be sympathetic to Britain’s concerns with unrestricted inter EU migration and the lack of EU democratic governance.

You can also add to this busy calendar the virtual certainty that the important Spanish region of Catalonia will hold a referendum on breaking away from Spain in the fall of 2017. Catalonia has been compared to the Quebec of Spain as it has its own dialect and historical identity. In my view it is more like the Texas or California of Spain given it has the strongest economy of all the regions. The referendum may not pass but it would be a body blow to the rest of Spain which is still reeling under high youth unemployment and EU enforced austerity. Spain could be forced back into its own currency in order to regain competitiveness.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economic-insight/the-euro-zone-is-inching-towards-sudden-collapse/article33461657/

#63 Smoking Man on 01.01.17 at 8:16 pm

Memory of pat pong street.

https://youtu.be/5DkQBPpun0M

#64 Smoking Man on 01.01.17 at 8:22 pm

That was me last night
https://youtu.be/G8O79uP0JmM

#65 AB Boxster on 01.01.17 at 8:29 pm

#22 Metaxa on 01.01.17 at 4:46 pm

Woosh
——————–
Hence the point about ‘intelligent’ people.

#66 Victor V on 01.01.17 at 8:35 pm

#37 Rob Fortier on 01.01.17 at 6:14 pm

Can you recommend some good ETF’s that have rate-reset preferreds?

==========

CPD and ZPR for Canada only.

XPF if you want North America.

#67 Capt. Serious on 01.01.17 at 8:35 pm

Happy to be here to see 2017.
Predictions are notoriously difficult, especially when they involve the future. Keep your fees low kids, and be diversified — we know not what will transpire.
Word of the year in Canada: sesquicentennial.

#68 Ace Goodheart on 01.01.17 at 8:36 pm

RE: “2016 was the year of peak house. By the end of 2017 we all wonder how that was not obvious.”

It’s not going to be linear like that. Not in Toronto.

#69 Metaxa on 01.01.17 at 9:09 pm

O’Leary is one year into a new five year contract with NBC on that Shark Tank Show he does in the US.

They aren’t going to let him out of that.

He is just chumming the waters, feeding his ego and making noise.

Max Bernier FTW.

#70 Vanrentor on 01.01.17 at 9:25 pm

Dave Barry’s Year in review

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/magazine/dave-barrys-year-in-review-trump-and-the-hideous-monstrosity-that-was-2016/2016/12/29/17c84a14-b7d6-11e6-b8df-600bd9d38a02_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_yirr-5am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.4cbc141d9d66

#71 Deplorable Dude on 01.01.17 at 9:36 pm

#38 Nonplussed – I don’t think enough facts are available yet to make sense out of all this apparent craziness.

——–
Plenty of facts if you ignore the liberal MSN…

Why murder Seth Rich?….to make an example of a leaker….read it yourself in Wikileaks here :-

https://www.wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/36082

It’s simple…Wikileaks has confirmed that it’s source is not the Russian government. But this is conveniently ignored by the MSN. The MSN are conflating and misrepresenting the whole issue which it calls vote hacking’…a gross lie.

The accusers have not stated what was hacked or how it affected the election. Deliberately vague on these issues.

“Why is Obama kicking out the Russians”

For a few reasons……

1) it reinforces the narrative that the Russians are guilty of hacking. They’re not. The ‘intelliigence’ report released was garbage…but they’re being punished therefore they must be guilty…in the eyes of uniformed public. Plus Clinton is itching to start a war with Russia.

2) It undermines the incoming Trump presidency, making him appear illegimate, some even say this may be a last ditch attempt by Obama and the current gov to overturn the election results.

This is the Iraq WMD play all over again…

The CIA is makes vague accusations with no evidence, to support an Obama narrative…..the media plays along conflating various issues so it just becomes a simple meme ‘Muh Russians’…viola.

#72 Context on 01.01.17 at 9:39 pm

I don’t think much of the new tax effective May 1, 2017 on all home pets according to weight verified by a Vet in Ontario. The Pets are contributing to Global warming and any owners who cannot produce the certification will be fined $1,000 or jail time in lieu of payment within 30 days.

#73 mark on 01.01.17 at 9:45 pm

Garth,
There is alot more to the pot thing other than a another taxed state sponsored intoxicant as your rebuttal to a previous comment.
Seriously, shaman and medicine/men and so called healers had this stuff buried with them and dated back 2700 years from what we presently can tell.
I don’t know why clinical trials on more human subjects have not tested cannabis CBD oil extract till now.
Maybe more money to be made with other drugs?
It’s ludicrous that cannabis is not legal all over the world for anti cancer properties,pain relief, etc. Not just too smoke it which is totally different compounds and effect as opposed to eating plant or extracting concentrated oil extract from plant for medicinal purposes. I could care less if most want to smoke as long as laws in place for being stupid and driving or working impaired. To totally different issues.
Pubmed journal(medical) reviews by science peer group has some very promising journal references and studies. Any one diagnosed with cancer should be checking out this research to stay alive. If it takes government and them wanting to tax product so I have legal access to it so be it.

#74 TurnerNation on 01.01.17 at 10:19 pm

A cat a mouse game.

What if you scoop out Organic Peanut Butter at a Bulk Barn store, and its cashiers assume it to be regular (cheaper) PB and ring that up.

Or, what if you if you scoop out Organic Peanut Butter at a Bulk Barn store but its manager has used regular (cheaper) PB in that bin and you assume otherwise.

Find the winner.

#75 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Field HQ on 01.01.17 at 10:27 pm

In the year 1 A.T. (anno Trumpini, or 2017 in the old Julian calendar), the deplorable underclass continues to wrest control of their destiny away from the rackets of entrenched and invisible wealth.

We will strike the Globalist cabal in France and Germany, scoring many seats in their Parliaments and more importantly, ejecting the marionette – Merkel, who will either flee the country in an unmarked helicopter to Bahrain or take shelter in her underground Fuhrer bunker.

The Fake News cabal networks like CNN and BBC will be abolished and dismantled in favour of de-centralized, internet-based dissemination channels, free of corporate interest.

American and Russian troops will land boots on the ground to eject the nests of religious fundamentalists dwelling in most major European cities – which are hives or terrorism and superstition. Liberation within 2 years to follow.

Mars colonization is planned in the second Trump term. Faster than light travel becomes possible and we see the start of an intergalactic human civilization. After 40,000 years, humanity spans tens of trillions of souls across the galaxy, united by their worship of the God Emperor of Man, as Trump’s body is kept in a state between undying and decay by a cyberntic throne, where the Emperor continues to lead humanity by the power of will and high energy.

Man reigns eternal.

#76 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Field HQ on 01.01.17 at 10:37 pm

And on top of all that, please invested in our Inverse Mark 9000 ETF this years, as these are exciting times and windfall gains for investors based on Mark’s esoteric and consistently wrong predictions. Our portfolio managers are working hard to take up positions to profit from all of the hilariously incorrect forecasts: we’re shorting gold, longing the main US indices and hedging against the CAD.

And thanks in advance Mark, for a most profitable 2016!

#77 jay on 01.01.17 at 10:58 pm

http://globalnews.ca/news/3155464/chip-wilsons-point-grey-home-now-worth-over-75-million/ Chip better lock his 5 year in.

#78 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.01.17 at 11:28 pm

Happy New Year!
Never got this.
What was wrong with the Old Year?
As far as I’m concerned, this is just a cut-off date for tax avoidance.
Think about it next time you say Happy New Year.
Unless you have about 1mill to play with, the only happy people will be the financial advisors.

#79 WUL on 01.01.17 at 11:52 pm

An easy prediction for ’17:

The flow of $ out of China will accelerate significantly.

Where?

1. Breathable air;

2. Drinkable water; and

3. Rule of Law.

The hundreds of billionaire politicians are not too keen on the enforcement of that minor irritant of the $50K limit per annum. Bet accordingly.

#80 Fortune500 on 01.02.17 at 12:13 am

So hold on to our Weed stocks?

#81 traderJim on 01.02.17 at 12:31 am

umm a tweet is just a tweet, even when it’s a Trump tweet.

Bit ridiculous to say a tweet = national policy, as so many seem to think.

House of Representatives and Senate still exist as far as I know.

Trump likes to think out loud and test the waters. Anyone paying the least amount of attention should know that by now.

Of course lots of people, cough CNN NYT WP cough like to distort reality to fit their own biases. Yawn. Everyone’s tired of it and the only people persuaded are those that already have condemned Trump before he has taken office.

Trump may be great or awful, nobody knows. But at least I keep an open mind until he actually does something.

#82 Ronaldo on 01.02.17 at 1:02 am

#69 TurnerNation on 01.01.17 at 10:19 pm

A cat a mouse game.

What if you scoop out Organic Peanut Butter at a Bulk Barn store, and its cashiers assume it to be regular (cheaper) PB and ring that up.

Or, what if you if you scoop out Organic Peanut Butter at a Bulk Barn store but its manager has used regular (cheaper) PB in that bin and you assume otherwise.

Find the winner.
————————————————————–
We know who the winners are. Organics, another scam on unsuspecting gullible consumers. I buy the bananas for .78 lb and my wife buys the so-called organic ones for $1.20. Who is the winner?

#83 Chinada on 01.02.17 at 1:03 am

#72 jay on 01.01.17 at 10:58 pm
http://globalnews.ca/news/3155464/chip-wilsons-point-grey-home-now-worth-over-75-million/ Chip better lock his 5 year in.

No need chipo.
This house will be wotj 120 million by 2020.
Those damn locals….LOL

#84 Sydneysider on 01.02.17 at 2:33 am

To be useful, the predictions for 2017 should have a better than 50% accuracy rate.

Looking over last year’s [http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/page/13/] I’d have to say it is tight.

#85 NEVER GIVE UP on 01.02.17 at 2:53 am

Instead of melamine in the baby milk now the Chinese are exporting plastic rice to Nigeria and the local China market.

Do not ever eat food from China under no circumstance.
I care about the Blog Dogs!

http://www.iflscience.com/editors-blog/hole-businessmen-selling-plastic-rice-nigeria/

#86 jane24 on 01.02.17 at 3:01 am

Hi Garth, you missed a few.

1. Falling Canadian dollar as the differences between booming USA and flat Canada become clear to global investors. Calling the Cdn dollar at Dec 2017 at 65 cents.

2. Implosion of EU after Italian, French, German, Spanish and Dutch 2017 votes. Yes I know that Italian elections are officially 2 years off but the Italians won’t wait that long. They are very angry right now with migrants and no jobs.

3. The mechanisation of jobs will continue. Oxford University said 20% of current jobs gone to robots and new software in 10 years. Mark Carney says 40% of existing jobs gone in 20 years. How are we going to buy cheap global goods if we don’t have jobs?

Oh and Happy New and Interesting (in the Chinese sense) year everyone.

#87 I'm stupid on 01.02.17 at 3:32 am

Go a bit easier on T2’s changes to weed legislation. Sure it is trivial in the global scheme of things but people are going to jail for selling something arguably less dangerous than alcohol. The hypocracy and wastefulness of our current laws are shameful and need changing.

People go to jail for selling alcohol, too. We do we need another state-sanctioned intoxicant? — Garth

I agree and disagree with both statements. Drug addiction is a serious problem that should be treated like an illness rather than a criminal offence. I use to smoke cigarettes so I understand addiction to a certain extent. When I smoked I would have taken the risk to go to jail just to get my fix. I think possession of small quantities of any narcotic should be legal, using prison as a way to get someone off drugs is both costly and excessive. These people need help especially opioid users. It’s also shameful that the Canadian government will profit from the sale of weed. I remember being told weed was a gateway drug but I think it’s cigarettes. I can bet that 100% of hard drug users smoke.

#88 2017 Will Probably Be Worse on 01.02.17 at 3:45 am

You may not like Macro Garth but GDP is like the income of the greater family called Canada.

Good [?] to read from you today that I am not the only one seeing 2017 doom and gloom.

Again:

2015 GDP was at a 7 year low (excl. 2009) at US $1550.5 Billion vs. the 2013 GDP peak of US $1837.4 Billion [2008 GDP at US $1549.4 Billion].

2016 GDP, as of October, was US $1250 Billion. Unlikely another US $300 billion will be added in Nov. and Dec. 2016 to equal the dismal 7 year low 2015 GDP.

Quickly, that’s about CDN $0.9 Trillion out of the economy in the past 3 years. And no good “hewer and drawer” news to make up for this in 2017.
__________________________

T2’s CDN $80 billion deficit will do NOTHING to make up for the above loss in GDP, well, other than shovel in ground photo ops. He will be widely criticized for this Keynesian stupidity.

As the pie shrinks, so will wages and/or job creation [if there is any job creation, it will be McJobs driving down wages/benefits…how else do you create jobs with less money to go around?].

1st Qtr 2017 will be when Canadians wake up as to how bad a shape our economy is in.

2nd Qtr 2017 to 4th Qtr 2017 is anyone’s guess.

My guess is a mild recession as fear will cause people to spend less and pay off debt as they see rates begin to climb. There goes consumer spending down the drain, let alone investment $. More than likely, there goes the last Canadian “get rich quick” RE asset bubble [i.e., 416].

I hope that President Trump will power the US economy and drag Canada along with it. This will not all magically happen in 2017, in time to rescue our diminishing economy.

You are correct, T2 needs to pass 420 early in 2017 so Canadians can can take a drag and trip away the pain of 2017 that is to come.

Looking forward to 2018.

bsant

#89 NEVER GIVE UP on 01.02.17 at 4:31 am

#67 Context on 01.01.17 at 9:39 pm
I don’t think much of the new tax effective May 1, 2017 on all home pets according to weight verified by a Vet in Ontario. The Pets are contributing to Global warming and any owners who cannot produce the certification will be fined $1,000 or jail time in lieu of payment within 30 days.
===================================

Yes I heard about this tax!
The price per pound of animal is $30.00 per year!
This will offset and solve the problems of Ontario Hydro prices!
Prissy Ontario women who are waiting for Real estate prices to rise the Great City of Toronto will be pleasured!

#90 bdy sktn on 01.02.17 at 8:06 am

Hey all you dogs (esp. Metaxa – whom otherwise seems as wise and clever as they come) who believe ANYTHING the cbc has to say on the climate file….article today on solar power concluded with this unchallenged quote. ..

“Germany has 40 percent of their power from solar with similar weather as canada….”

Cbc is dumb as a rotted stump or lying intentionally.

The truth is closer to 3%.
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=26372

Nobody gets it that wrong without an agenda.

#91 jay on 01.02.17 at 8:42 am

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4080762/Robots-hire-fire-staff-soon-employed-world-s-largest-hedge-fund-bid-improve-efficiency.html The future is going to be all about one’s and zero’s.

#92 Penny Henny on 01.02.17 at 9:20 am

#18 Mark on 01.01.17 at 4:14 pm

I’m not going to be able to participate in the blog comments for much of the next month or two, so Happy New Year to all, and don’t miss me too much!
/////////////////////////

Not able to participate??
Mark got a job??

#93 Smoking Man on 01.02.17 at 9:32 am

New Year Resolution.

Drink less, Smoke less, write better.

#94 Penny Henny on 01.02.17 at 9:32 am

What ever happened to MH370?

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.17 at 9:48 am

@#78 Chinada

Chip Wilson’s “house” is a grotesque monstrocity that deserves a 9.0 Earthquake to drop it into the polluted waters of English Speaking Bay.
It’s further evidence that he is compensating for a small appendage that no amount of Yoga on the Burrard Street bridge with a bimbo Premier will alleviate.
Lululemon booted him from the day to day management of his company after witnessing his multi year manic nonstop construction of what can only be described as ” Concrete Boxes by the Sea”.
Or the fact that he insulted millions of clients by suggesting that (horrors) maybe fat people shouldnt wear his stretchy, curve hugging, far too revealing, skin tight clothing……
But I digress.
One wonders how in Hell he ever got “The Bunker” past the Vancouver planning dept until you realize that Mayor Gregor ( I fooled around on my wife and got caught) Robertson was just about to become his neighbor when he decided to “trade up” his old wife and canoodle with the daughter of a Chinese billionaire….
Further proof that sitting politicians will do anything for a re-election contribution buck

#96 Thank G_g on 01.02.17 at 10:10 am

Seriously, shaman and medicine/men and so called healers had this stuff buried with them and dated back 2700 years from what we presently can tell.
I don’t know why clinical trials on more human subjects have not tested cannabis CBD oil extract till now.

====

The good news is that Garth’s health is good enough that he never had to search out for more than OHIP covers for him. Thank G_d for that, we all hope that it will stay like this for a very long time.

Trying to explain someone the effect of a shaman using medicine is like trying to explain sex. You would really know only when you experienced it.

There were medical researches early on, one of the most notable was conducted by Nobel prize nominee Dr. Raphael Mechoulam.

Here is a documentary:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fu6FhJIyTEc

#97 test123 on 01.02.17 at 10:33 am

We don’t need one more legal intoxicant so since weed is in let’s toss all the booze hounds in jail

#98 bdy sktn on 01.02.17 at 10:36 am

#88 Smoking Man on 01.02.17 at 9:32 am

New Year Resolution.
Drink less, Smoke less….

………….
WTF???????
Smokey goes soft! Tragic.
Maybe the world does end in 2017!

#99 Deplorable Steerage Wisdom on 01.02.17 at 10:46 am

#88 Smoking Man on 01.02.17 at 9:32 am

New Year Resolution.

Drink less, Smoke less, write better.

Yeah right…… Why!?

#100 Context on 01.02.17 at 10:47 am

#69 TurnerNation:- Its all a shell game depending on where the sign is placed. The very word ‘Organic’ tells the buyer the price will be higher, and the end result remains unknown. Who is the greater crook needs to be addressed; is he the supplier or the store owner or both.

#101 Deplorable Steerage Wisdom on 01.02.17 at 11:21 am

#88 Smoking Man on 01.02.17 at 9:32 am

New Year Resolution.

Drink less, Smoke less, write better.

Hey smoker dude.. looks like you got in a plane instead of your spaceship….were you trying to escape to Mexico!

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/calgary-police-arrest-allegedly-drunk-sunwing-pilot-who-passed-out-in-cockpit-before-takeoff

#102 IHCTD9 on 01.02.17 at 11:33 am

A list and thoughts for 2017:

1. Second income required, one that is out of the box, multiple streams doing multiple things. Ontario will vote the Libs in again for 2018, and that’ll pretty much be the last gasp for the industry I work in. Hopefully they’ll have the basic income program going – that plus whatever I’ve come up with on my own will have to carry me the rest of the way.

2. Further the evolution of my tax avoidance strategies. Some plans are way out of the box, and a couple ideas may provide some income as well. If all goes well, the results should be as good as anyone could ever ask for.

3. Finish up my shop, sell off my remaining “collectables”, start work on gasifier.

4. Start shopping for an older large truck/SUV once the carbon tax and new certification rules have fully taken hold. Once everyone realizes these tanks will fail the new Ontario Certification rules even if they’re just dripping a little oil off the engine somewhere, then all I’ll need is for gasoline to start climbing and they’ll be dumping them like a post 7.3 F350 that needs an injection pump.

5. Continue the slow multi-year process of upgrades and clean up of our property in preparation for selling. Also keep working the wife to get her to warm up to the idea of heading north a ways – may require new Jeep Wrangler to guarantee success. Countdown to actually even being able to move: T minus 6 years and counting.

6. Grab some popcorn and watch the right wing in Ontario die a formal death in 2017. Patrick Brown will gain almost zero center votes, absolutely zero lefty votes, and lose huge on the right – and give the Libs another majority next year. Once all the right wingers catch on that Brown might as well be Bob Rae as far as any Con is concerned, it’ll be way too late to turn the ship around before the election. 4 more years of a Lib majority, and maybe even with the wicked witch of the west holding the reins again. There is just no way I am going to blow my vote reinforcing Mr. Browns ideas about becoming popular – and I’m far from the only one…

2017 – I agree with Mr. T that it will not be a good one for Canada, we’ll see what Trump does and the results thereof. None of it really matters given the fact that T2 could hack the heads off of fuzzy little bunnies live on the CBC and they’d all be scrambling to make excuses for him. So far, he’s looking good to get a 2nd mandate, and actual performance thus far has had little weight with the Canadian voter. Canadians have shifted from requiring performance to wanting a “cool guy” with all the PC trimmings at the helm.

The deck is stacked solidly against the private sector in this country for 2017+18, but I think we are the official minority vote now anyway.

Oh, #7. Start looking into public sector work before the competition for these jobs doubles..

#103 Doug in London on 01.02.17 at 11:39 am

Normally I don’t post a comment that’s not relevant to the post subject, but today I’ll break from tradition. Garth, did you take a break last night from monitoring posts here so you could watch the Adele concert at 8 PM? We know you’re quite an avid Adele fan!

#104 IHCTD9 on 01.02.17 at 11:49 am

#81 jane24 on 01.02.17 at 3:01 am

How are we going to buy cheap global goods if we don’t have jobs?
____________________

I wonder this as well – but these automated goods will be insanely cheap. Cheaper than you can imagine. So cheap they will altogether lessen the allure of consumerism.

But yeah, at the end of the day there needs to be a consumer that has the will and the means – or the ship goes down.

#105 TurnerNation on 01.02.17 at 12:18 pm

Examples abound: they also changed our language for the staged Bush Jr. elections. (He told us why: “I am the war president”)
All those discarded and uncounted ballots were blamed on “hanging chads” and “pregnant chads”.
Right. The Devil is in the details.

Watch and know for their next invented phrase or sound byte.

#106 Rainclouds on 01.02.17 at 12:25 pm

California is a trend setter and this scenario is likely going to be played out all over N America in the next decade:

2017 Prediction:

It finally dawns on the 70% of private sector working stiffs that they are royally screwed for retirement.

They are pleased to discover their taxes are being administered with the cold steely eye of a public sector consumed with rooting out unnecessary expenditures and returning them to the taxpayer.

Errr, maybe not

http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-me-el-monte-pensions/

#107 IHCTD9 on 01.02.17 at 12:34 pm

#59 Andrew Woburn on 01.01.17 at 8:11 pm
– Forecast: The collapse of the euro zone is drawing near
_______________

Will be interesting to see how it all plays out. If the anti-immigrant / anti-establishment parties of the EU start grabbing power right off the bat in 2017, history will forget Trump was ever a Billionaire or liked to tweet. They will remember only the Global movement he kicked off that would come to change the entire planet (for better or worse…).

#108 Smoking Man on 01.02.17 at 12:35 pm

#89 Penny Henny on 01.02.17 at 9:32 am
What ever happened to MH370?

UFO

#109 jay on 01.02.17 at 12:39 pm

Vancouver is #1 again .Highest gas price in North America $1.35 litre .Yay. http://www.cknw.com/2017/01/02/a-jump-at-the-pump-for-metro-vancouver-gas-prices/

#110 InvestorsFriend on 01.02.17 at 12:42 pm

Who is Distorting Reality?

Trader Jim said:

Of course lots of people, cough CNN NYT WP cough like to distort reality to fit their own biases.

**********************************
Not only lots of people but everyone.

We ALL do this consciously or unconsiously. We skim past and dismiss articles that we can see are counter to our views. We read closely those articles that support our views.

We grab any data to support our view. (Witness people calculating Canada GDP in U.S. dollars to show a big drop).

We all seek confirmation of our existing views all day long.

We can all benefit from being aware of this and slowing down to think about the other side of an argument once in a while.

A lot of people go a step further and vilify the sources of views they don’t agree with and ascribe ulterior motives or lack of intelligence. (Witness comments about the mainstream media – which is a massive broad brush attack)

#111 DON on 01.02.17 at 12:44 pm

Money laundering…shell companies…Canada….BC….Real estate.

Say it ain’t so Joe

Fresh of the Press
https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/01/02/Canada-Disclosure-Laws/

Definitely a catalyst sending a wave of fear ‘of never owning’ through a vast majority of our population. This will not be a good year for most. Employment and Welfare cases are on the rise in the interior and North of BC, and flat in Van and Victoria as the real estate and condo developments took off in the fall, no doubt in time for the first time buyers program the BC Liberals put into place, how convenient. The BC provincial election is all about the perception of a strong job numbers. It is easy to lead the Country in job creation with 21-25% of the economy linked to real estate related activities in few major centres. And all this while Alberta, Sask, Ontario are taking a beating. Kelowna is also in trouble – EI wise. So yes by default BC is currently number 1. But this to will end as Real estate is slowing and people redefine what is important. The internet has enabled the pace of changing trend or market sentiment to be much faster. Word of the bubble and obscene prices for an average tear down have put people on the sidelines as they see friends struggling/stressing.

At one point it becomes too unaffordable. Clearly we need to regulate realtors as a starting point. Let’s start fixing the problem…it will give us something to do in between the highlights of a failing housing markets. Anyone wanna buy a tulip bulb? Only one left in stock!

#112 jess on 01.02.17 at 12:55 pm

“Leaked papers reveal that as Luxembourg’s PM, the European commission president obstructed the bloc’s tax reforms efforts”

The leak will embarrass Jean-Claude Juncker, who has since said he would lead EU tackle tax avoidance efforts…However, the leaked cables reveal how a small handful of countries have used their seats on the committee to frustrate concerted EU action and protect their own tax regimes.

Efforts by a majority of member states to curb aggressive tax planning and to rein in predatory tax policies were regularly delayed, diluted or derailed by the actions of a few of the EU’s smallest members, frequently led by Luxembourg.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/01/jean-claude-juncker-blocked-eu-curbs-on-tax-avoidance-cables-show

=====================
“The flow of capital and cheap labour is disrupted.”

A black market for refugees’ organs has long flourished in the Middle East. Lebanese smugglers told Der Spiegel in 2013 that because of the enormous refugee crisis there are “more sellers than buyers.”

Dec 5, 2015 11:02 AM EST
Selling desperate Syrian refugees’ body parts for profit: Israeli man arrested in Turkey for organ trafficking
Trafficking is on the rise in largest refugee crisis since WWII. Struggling Syrians have resorted to selling organs
Patients illegally receiving an organ had to pay between €70,000 and €100,000, according to the indictment, whereas refugee organ donors received just tens of thousands of euros, resulting in tens of thousands of euros in profit for each transplant.

Previously, Wolfman was charged with organ trafficking and organizing illegal transplants in Kosovo, Azerbaijan, and Sri Lanka, in a series of alleged offenses committed between 2008 and 2014.

With 60 million people driven from their homes, trafficking and enslavement are on the rise, the U.N. warned this week.

Lebanese Black Market Syrian Refugees Sell Organs to Survive

With 60 million people driven from their homes, trafficking and enslavement are on the rise, the U.N. warned this week.

#113 jess on 01.02.17 at 1:15 pm

#77 Ronaldo on 01.02.17 at 1:02 am

I think the more worrying trend is seed patents /
traits read here:

How “Open Source” Seed Producers From the US to India Are Changing Global Food Production

…”OSSI executive director Claire Luby, whose Ph.D. thesis focused on genetic variation and availability within carrots, found that about one-third of all carrot material has been protected by intellectual property rights, rendering it unavailable or difficult for plant breeders to use.”
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/38915-how-open-source-seed-producers-from-the-us-to-india-are-changing-global-food-production
=============================

A dozen doctors, pharmacy owners and marketing pros have been accused of a kickback scheme that prosecutors allege involved a sham medical study …
Doctors, pharmacists indicted in $100M fraud case
Ken Alltucker, The Arizona Republic Monday, 02-Jan-17 02:09:40 PST
http://www.king5.com/ext/news/nation-now/doctors-pharmacists-indicted-in-100m-fraud-case/281/nationnow/3rL0rX0SmA22OuGCCg2qkE

======
In other words, undocumented migrants are less valued in society, and can therefore be paid less and exploited more, slotting them neatly in to the most precarious industries. ‘It’s what economists call a monopsony,’ says Kumar.
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/38916-the-inextricable-link-between-migration-and-sweatshops
=====================

#114 DON on 01.02.17 at 1:23 pm

Garth: Feedback on one of your predictions last year.

“•A property tax revolt starts brewing in the Lower Mainland after assessments flame higher just as house value start wobbling.”

My friend tells me the BC Gov is hiring property assessment dispute officers for those communities that are receiving higher tax assessments based on June 2016 peak prices. YIKES!

#115 Wrk.dover on 01.02.17 at 1:25 pm

A nice round of year end bonuses in the executive suites.

Drop stock market 20%, spend year recovering, repeat.

No one will even notice a pattern.

#116 DON on 01.02.17 at 1:30 pm

#83 2017 Will Probably Be Worse on 01.02.17 at 3:45 am

I am jumping on bsant’s take of 2017. How’s the weather in Italy bsant? Always look forward to your insights.

#117 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 01.02.17 at 1:37 pm

Great blog today. I think you may want to add that income taxes will be lowered because there are too many loopholes and tax avoidance. Instead all Countries will be increasing the Consumption Tax, GST, VAT etc. The Govt gets the money almost instantly and there is no way to avoid paying.

#118 Penny Henny on 01.02.17 at 2:44 pm

2017 Prediction- US economy starts heating up. GDP of 3.5% for the year. All this because people start feeling confident again. Consumer spending levels rise at the cost of decreased saving levels. The Trump effect.

#119 Polls R Phake on 01.02.17 at 3:05 pm

Happy Happy Happy new taxes here in BC. Oh and it will be below zero for a solid month in the Vancouver. I have lived here 25 years. It has never been below zero for a month.

The Global Warming continues…..no wait…..it the Russians !!

#120 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.17 at 3:10 pm

@#101 rainclouds.
Yep California is setting a trend.
Unaffordable Govt employee pensions that are bankrupting the govt and putting more pressure on private sector voters with zero pension benefits to “pick up the slack” through higher taxes.

Rock meet Hard Place.

Houston police are hitting the pension wall as well.

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.click2houston.com/news/houston-police-department-pension-concerns&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwj3rOHUoaTRAhVEzGMKHT_SA80QFgg7MAY&usg=AFQjCNFQuOQsCbz8ldXl004tC52kjgJ6Lw

same as Detroit, same as Boston. Same as the Ontario Teachers pension plan…..more money leaving than is coming in.
Unsustainable.
Taxpayers will eventually be expected to “top it up”

#121 VANRE getting exposed... on 01.02.17 at 4:00 pm

Garth this is a must read…. just waiting for the same to happen in the GTA….realty boards getting exposed for what they really are….criminal and corrupt organizations…

https://twitter.com/FIVRE604/status/815982594844073985

#122 Leo Trollstoy on 01.02.17 at 4:09 pm

I predict that I’ll be better off this year

#123 jay on 01.02.17 at 4:20 pm

Garth ,do you think this money will affect housing price in Canada? http://www.antimoneylaunderinglaw.com/2017/01/qa-on-the-2-trillion-in-proceeds-of-corruption-removed-from-china-and-taken-to-us-australia-canada-and-netherlands.html

#124 InvestorsFriend on 01.02.17 at 4:51 pm

Not All Pensions Are Created Equal

CrowdedElevatorfatz warned:

Houston police are hitting the pension wall as well.

same as Detroit, same as Boston. Same as the Ontario Teachers pension plan…..more money leaving than is coming in.
Unsustainable.
Taxpayers will eventually be expected to “top it up”

******************************************
Check the funded status as well as the funds in and funds out of the Ontario Teachers Pension plan and you will see that you are completely wrong.

Ontario Teachers pension plan assets continue grow exponentially.

https://www.otpp.com/investments/performance

Many pension plans are in bad shape. The Ontario Teachers Pension plan is in great shape. No comparison to Houston or Detroit or any other pension that is in horrible shape.

It is true however that it is great shape partly because of high contributions from teachers and from the employers.

#125 Mark M. on 01.02.17 at 5:30 pm

It’s remarkable, the predictions here seem to indicate that the US can reverse course on eight years of 0% interest rates and a 35 year old bond bubble can burst and the US economy will thrive as a result.

There’s no price to pay for any of it? No recession, just robust growth, the real kind this time, not the “phony” recovery the CNBC cheerleaders pushed for six years.

Yup, the Trump effect makes math obsolete.

#126 maxx on 01.02.17 at 6:02 pm

For any blog dawgies traveling thru AMS during the holidays, no need to fret the loss of an article:
(Dutch/French, but soooo adorable and you’ll get the message)
What a genius idea.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/PkBxPJuuJOU

#127 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.17 at 9:46 pm

@#119 InvestorsFriend
Touched a raw nerve did I?

Let me guess, You’re an investment advisor for …..Ontario Teachers?
OK fair enough. The OTPP is very wealthy.
But for how much longer……

“Investment returns account for more than three-quarters, about 78 per cent, of the pension payouts that teachers receive in retirement. Member contributions account for 10 per cent and the Ontario government, as their employer, contributes 12 per cent.’
====================================
So the GOVT DOES “top up” the plan…
====================================
“The plan has 182,000 active members and 129,000 pensioners.
“Our pensioner population is catching up quickly to the working teacher population”
===================================
UH OH…..
The silver tsunami is just beginning.
I cant wait to see how sustainable a pension plan is when there are 2 retired(for 30+ years on average)teachers being supported by 1 teacher……………more Govt money(taxpayers) will be needed as more Boomer teachers retire
We wont even talk about the expensive dental, eyewear and medication programs that will be hacked and slashed………

Lets keep pretending that govt employee pension plans are self sustaining when they ARENT.

I dont really care Investoid fiend
My balanced and diversified portfolio isnt dependent on taxpayer handouts that will eventually end as more and more and more taxpayers with NO PENSIONS start voting for govts that cut this obscene cash grab off.

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.17 at 10:08 pm

And then we have the retired Dallas Police “bankrupting their own pension” thus “screwing” their union brothers with their self serving panic cashouts……

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2016/12/08/dallas-police-fire-pension-board-ends-early-drop-payments/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjkgLDU_aTRAhUK8GMKHVXSCq8QFgggMAI&usg=AFQjCNGpSjPE6zs4wLVoU8DGssRWPOD6SA

The govt “rats” are abandoning the ship after seeing other US cities arbitrarily cutting pensions and benefits in order to remain solvent.

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2016/10/03/court-rejects-challenge-detroit-bankruptcy-pension-cuts/91479650/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjEv6qw_qTRAhUPx2MKHTu-C40QFggiMAM&usg=AFQjCNEMC56xr5Z_DBwISn14QynST7mSWw

And apparently the Courts agree….

Broke is broke.

Insolvent cities coming to a Province near you?

#129 Future Expatriate on 01.03.17 at 9:39 am

You left out nuclear WWIII when Trump nukes Iran because Pence and the GOP told him it would be good for business.