Maple alert

car-modified

The Dow’s getting all the girls this week, but the story of 2016 was the comeback on Bay Street. Don’t expect the same next year.

The Dow at 20,000 is just a number, but there’s no denying it’s a sexy one. The index is up 14% this year, and the S&P 500 is ahead more than 11%. A massive whack of that came in the last six weeks, since America got Great Again. The US dollar’s been rocketing ahead. The yield on US Treasuries is at the highest level in more than two years and the Fed’s pulled the trigger on rates. So much for all those pantywaists around here who forecast a stock crash if the central ever bank found spine.

For every one of the last seven weeks (since the US election), the market’s swelled. This is going to be the best three-month period for the Dow since 2013. Ironically, Barack Obama is leaving office when the economy’s hot, markets are pumped, unemployment’s crashed, real estate has recovered and consumer confidence is higher than a vaping Liberal.

Investors are pumped. Trump may be goofy and unpredictable with robotic, scary kids, but the betting is he’ll do crazy things that will throw gas on the US economy. Like slashing decades of regulations harnessing business activity. Or greenlighting fracking, even if Oklahoma falls into a man-made crevice. Or slashing business taxes in an economy that needs more revenue, not less. Or picking a trade war with China, or building a godawful, expensive border wall, or going coal.

Normally markets move in advance of news, then retrace. Maybe not this time. Analysts think the Trump Bump can extend for months or longer, with his policies  actually plumping the national GDP. We’ll see. But I wouldn’t be reducing the US weighting in my portfolio right now.

Canada? Different story. Fading glory.

The TSX was a global superstar in 2016, rising almost 18%. But don’t confuse the market with the economy. The big gains here came from oil and nat gas on an almost-doubling in the price of crude from last February ($27) to now ($53). Good money was also made on financials (up 25%) – which, along with energy, make up a large part of the Bay Street index. Of course the banks did well because Canadians borrowed more money than anyone ever thought possible to buy houses at insane levels.

But unlike the US, where excitement and momentum are building for the wild, unpredictable, shoot-‘em-up days ahead, there’s not so much optimism in the frosty north. Oil’s been range-bound for months now, and even the decision by OPECers to curtail production has done little to propel crude higher. Meanwhile US producers have been fracking and horizontal-drilling their way to steadily more output, and the Trump administration is expected to encourage energy self-sufficiency and sacrifice environmental controls to get it. US oil producers, by the way, have raised $40 billion in new equity financing, almost a record. Investors smell money.

So, more oil coming. No price doubling in 2017 like last year. Maybe even down.

As for the other big driver of Canadian stocks, real estate and financing, you know the story. Mortgage rates are headed higher. We’re down to a single bubble market from three a few years ago. The Moister Stress Test is removing about 20% of first-time buyers. Soon lenders will have to shoulder borrower risk now carried only by the government, making loans more costly. The Chinese dudes have left town. Sellers are greedy. Debt is epic. The economy blows.

So, don’t overweight Canada in your portfolio this year. Probably a bad idea. But not so with Trump. And 2017 will not be the year to give up on bonds or a balanced portfolio with a good weighting in preferreds and a smattering of bonds. Odds are there’s some raucous volatility ahead, plus rate-reset prefs will be starting on a long voyage of appreciation.

By the way, Monday January 23rd will be interesting. Wear a helmet.

119 comments ↓

#1 NEVER GIVE UP on 12.27.16 at 5:00 pm

Gold is the currency of Kings
Cash is the currency of Merchants
Credit is the currency of Slaves

Lets make 2017 the year of Debt Reduction!

#2 Context on 12.27.16 at 5:09 pm

Did anyone see the video presentation in the Globe and Mail about the young female millennial buying a home in Belgrave to commute for work to Toronto? I cannot rationalize the stats, as she could have done better in Woodstock for example. Is this what they call fake news with a 5 hour round trip by car to go to work, so she could afford to buy a detach?

#3 TurnerNation on 12.27.16 at 5:20 pm

Tell the new guy, wake me at RSI 90.
These pups hardly seen a bull market.
Nifty Fifty anyone?

M41ON

#4 InvestorsFriend on 12.27.16 at 5:27 pm

Range-Bound?

“Oil’s been range-bound for months now”

Almost all the analysts use that term but it bugs me.

It is probably just my deep disdain for all things Technical Analysis but I always cringe when anyone describes any market as being “range-bound”.

What is the opposite of range-bound? A boundless free-range item that can go anywhere? Does a free-range price that has been rising have to keep doing so? Do analysts who like free-range prices tend to buy high and sell low?

Range-bound is simply a description of the recent past price action. What does that tell us about the future? (You know, the thing that matters) I would argue it tells us absolutely nothing at all about the future.

Kind of like this post, you mean? — Garth

#5 InvestorsFriend on 12.27.16 at 5:34 pm

Cash is Credit?

#1 NEVER GIVE UP on 12.27.16 at 5:00 pm
Gold is the currency of Kings
Cash is the currency of Merchants
Credit is the currency of Slaves

Lets make 2017 the year of Debt Reduction!

***********************************
Cute but where is cash held? Yes, in banks where it loaned out and “your” cash is merely a credit entry on the bank’s books.

Fundamentally, all money is transferable credit. See the book Money – An Unauthorized Biography.

I agree with your advice that each individual should strive to reduce debt.

But collectively the economy relies on ever-increasing debt for growth. Logically, each individual should work to pay off their own debts while convincing the rest of the world to borrow like there is no tomorrow.

You would not like a world in which everyone was reducing debt.

#6 InvestorsFriend on 12.27.16 at 5:43 pm

Sell long Term Bonds?

There is a general consensus that interest rates are rising. That would suggest we should sell any long term bonds. Also perpetual preferred shares. Hold CASH for stability. This includes short-term deposits. Cash (and cash-equivalents) is the one and ONLY asset that is assured of maintaining its purchase power (within a percent or two) in Canada and the U.S. and most or all western economies. This would not be true if there was a risk of more than tiny inflation. There is probably no such risk at the moment. In any case if cash suffers a loss in purchasing power due to inflation then long-term bonds and perpetual preferred which are just deferred cash will suffer far more greatly.

Gold, equities and real estate can suffer huge changes in purchasing power in any short period of time.

#7 InvestorsFriend on 12.27.16 at 5:45 pm

Kind of like this post, you mean? — Garth

You are being hard on yourself.

That was cute. Try being positive some time. You’ll live longer. — Garth

#8 Grey Dog on 12.27.16 at 5:49 pm

Garth, Thankyou so much for tracking down a most beloved dog, who I have missed the past few months, I had even gave a shout out a few weeks ago.
I always learn from your tutorials daily Garth, yet I always looked forward to what Boom! had to say, his insight, gentle wisdom, humour, never at anyone’s expense. Roy Stacy, you represent the best of the best of the blog Dogs, you showed us in a quiet way…character counts. Thank you for sharing, may you Rest in Peace. My condolences to your Wife and son Paul, and thank you Paul for responding to Garth’s email.

#9 Mark on 12.27.16 at 5:49 pm

“As for the other big driver of Canadian stocks, real estate and financing,”

Have to disagree here Garth. Real estate, until quite recently, has been working against the stock market. As investment enthusiasm has been vested with buying houses, not investing in relatively boring “balanced portfolios” or similar. Also, if you look at the TSX by market capitalization, there are very few firms in the index which are actually exposed to the RE marketplace meaningfully aside from the banks which have positioned themselves effectively ‘short’ the RE market and are now benefitting from the RE market’s stagnation/fall.

Next year should remain positive for the TSX. The P/E ratio is modest compared to the US index. Rising long-term interest rates tends to be positive for the mix of investments that make up the Canadian markets. The Canadian dollar is abnormally weak, so offshore earnings of TSX constituent firms can be repatriated to the benefit of Canadian owners at very favourable exchange rates. The banks have their portfolios protected by, and will benefit from CMHC subprime mortgage insurance as housing prices continue to fall 4 years post-peak. The BoC will be forced to continue low interest rate policy and may even need to cut the policy rate further.

With the tailwind of both momentum, shifting investor enthusiasm away from the declining RE market and towards the stock market, and improvements in performance in the mix of sectors that bear inverse correlation to interest rates, the next year could very well turn out to be quite swell for the TSX. But its good that “the public” is so negative — leaves excellent investment returns for the rest of us!

#10 the Jaguar on 12.27.16 at 5:50 pm

It’s nice what Garth did for Boom. I guess I will let him out of the freezer where he has been since being mean about cats. I hear a heartbeat somewhere in the distance, not unlike the beating of other more ominous jungle drums.
Clouds continue in the skies over the canadian oil patch. One only needs to observe the recent request made by the all powerful Koch brothers to the Alberta government to rescind their approval of an 800 million dollar oil sands project. Says a lot. These are very powerful people. Meant in a good but mostly bad way, of course. And it was on the heels of a similar abandonment by StatOil of Norway. 67% owned by green minded citizens of that country who must have a pretty good idea of how oil and gas operations benefit countries. And also what the optics are of being a participant in any way to ‘dirty oil’. In June of 2013 the planets collided over southern Alberta which experienced a devastating flood. Momentarily attention was diverted from the other meteorite that was on a short arrival trajectory – fracking. ‘ Should have, could have, would have’ …seen it coming. Didn’t play out that way. Powerful enough to bring the Saudi’s to their knees. Alberta will survive thanks to the hard work ethic, ability to reinvent, and other solid economics like agriculture and a young educated workforce. Prospects will improve, but the conspicuous consumption is over for a while. It might be over in a couple of locales as well. In a ‘real estate’ sort of way…..

#11 joblo on 12.27.16 at 5:53 pm

Long Goldman Sachs!

#12 For those about to flop... on 12.27.16 at 5:56 pm

I could write a hundred posts about Boom and still not fully be able to explain what he meant to me.

As I read his obituary yesterday ,tears streamed down my face as I realized every detail he had told me was true.
I always had a checklist in my head I was going to ask him if he came back on the blog ,just to check that no one was impersonating him.

From where he lived,to family structure,where and how many times he and his family had moved and for what purpose was laid before my eyes…all true ….no bull.

It was only last Wednesday that I asked my wife to go to the bank to restructure her TFSA as per Boom’s advice.

Things will change as life plays out,but I intend on using some of the strategies and information he passed onto me for the next couple of decades.

It was with a mixture of joy and extreme sadness that I read the comments section yesterday and have come to realize that we will be inextricably linked on this blog and I am glad I can go back through the archives to re-read our communication and learn another lesson.

I am glad that I made him laugh and although I would have liked to had the chance to say goodbye, I do recall telling him one day something along the lines of…

” Boom,I just want you to know that I look up to you as a role model.”

I know that warmed his kind heart.

To Paul and Janet,thank you for understanding that although we never met he meant a lot to me and in my eyes our friendship had only just begun.

We were in communication with each other right up until his passing and one of his last messages to me was wishing me well with an upcoming surgery,which I have now had.

NoName put up a survey once trying to help me out and being mischievous asked a bonus question.

” Do you find my( For those about to flop..) posts interesting?”

Boom gave me five stars.

No Boom…you were five stars…

M42BC
M64WI

#13 odious herodias on 12.27.16 at 6:08 pm

Thanks for writing Garth, your efforts are appreciated. Nice article about Boomer, good to see his folks were encouraged by it.

#14 Andrew Woburn on 12.27.16 at 6:15 pm

From Garth’s post re Boom, aka Roy:

Typical was this response to a know-it-all moister who took to this blog to dump on the previous generation:

“You DO realize anyone of us Boomers could have written (or did write) essentially the same sentiments? Garth’s comment “So cute. Hey, that’s me in 1969. The times-are-a-changing’ again.”
———————————————

Boom was, as usual, right. People are pretty much the same in every generation. When I read about “entitled” millennials, I remember that I dropped a budding career in journalism because I did not want to endure years on police beat or covering small town politics. My wife declined a job with a major advertising agency after college because advertising was too crass for her tender sensibilities.

The partisans on both sides of the so-called generational divide seem unable to grasp that any life consists of stages with their own appropriate outlook and behaviour. Since most of us are firmly convinced we will always be who we are today, younger people can be forgiven, but older people have already changed many times and should be able to remember who they used to be.

I was reminded of this on our Christmas visit to Vancouver where we stayed in an old fashioned hotel while feasting with my wife’s millennial daughter in her trendy downtown condo. My 35-year-old self gets why the daughter would feel fulfilled and happy to be living large at the beating heart of a great city. My ancient self sees the frightening cost of the place, the sketchy workmanship and the lack of space that will eventually drive her screaming to the suburbs. Fortunately I have at last learned when to shut up.

I was glad to retreat to the frumpy comforts of the Sylvia Hotel on English Bay. It was built in 1912 and the elevator sounds like it. One waggish guest offered the opinion, “Maybe they bent it coming around Cape Horn”.

I totally understand why my younger self would have hated the place. It is full of knickknacks, brown furniture and old people. No hint of urban gloss whatever. But today it seems like a warm refuge from the relentless modernism of the city.

Perhaps the greatest gift any of us could receive at 35 is to understand that life really is finite and that ageing and changing is not only inevitable but natural. Of course, old people did try to tell me that when I was young.

#15 InvestorsFriend on 12.27.16 at 6:24 pm

Positivity

Try being positive some time. You’ll live longer. — Garth

**********************
That is very good advice and I am going to try to take it to heart. None of us like criticism. There may be no such thing as constructive criticism.

Yet almost everyone is quick to criticise. Especially from a safe distance.

I hereby pledge to be much more positive, particularly on this blog.

#16 Marius on 12.27.16 at 6:28 pm

Here is some useful info on condo prices. I always have trouble figuring out how condos are doing in Vancouver. I could certainly never afford a house in my east van hood.

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/vancouver-condos-got-another-minor-downtick-november/

Does anyone know where to get good stats on condo prices?

#17 Spectacle on 12.27.16 at 6:32 pm

Hmmm..as i understand it, all of the positive things happening across North America are directly due to.the fact that Obama..George Soros (the total criminal) et al are now being challenged for aithority.
Thoughts?
M

#18 I don't know on 12.27.16 at 6:32 pm

Yes. There is only one RED HOT RE market left in Canada. It’s very, very hot. And it shall remain so. For a multitude of reasons. And the Chinese are not leaving. In fact, more are coming. And so are the Americans. As well as the rest of the world. The nay-sayers have been so wrong about TO RE for so long and I fear they will continue to be so for a long time to come. If anyone ever wants to buy in the GTA, might as well do so now.

#19 Long Branch Apprentice on 12.27.16 at 6:44 pm

Additional taxes on assets that can’t flee the country–i.e. real estate–become extremely attractive.

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.ca/2016/12/when-assets-such-as-real-estate-become.html

A glimpse into the future?

#20 Spectacle on 12.27.16 at 6:56 pm

#12 For those about to flop..

Ive cracked an amazing bottle of Christmas bottle of Red, reading up on my blogs etc. Now that im on to Mr Turners masterpiece ” Greater Fool” , id like to pass on a note Flopper.
A few times in my life I’ve had discussions or those similarly important “Life Turns On The Head of a Pin” encounters. Exactly what you’ve shared with Roy, thanks to Mr Turners great works here. In short, I’d say its that anonymity that brings us blog dogs closer together, provides meaning and depth to our very own lives. I ve had one very close call with the “Bus of Death” recently , but thats only important if i make good of it. I did.

Please continue to provide Your Own wise notes here. I’m sure you’ll be that much better for it, and Garth & I might appreciate the input. ( any others…)

Look forward to your entries over time Flopper.

M

#21 Freedom First on 12.27.16 at 7:13 pm

Paul, thank you for the reply from you and your Mom.

Very thoughtful and touching.

#22 Shawn on 12.27.16 at 7:19 pm

Too many analysts are recommending investors prepare for “rising volatility” in 2017. I’m going to take the other side on this one. I think we’ll see a low volatility year like 1985 or 1995 or 2013 next year. No one is calling for this.

#23 Freedom First on 12.27.16 at 7:30 pm

#18 I don’t know

Yes. So, the red hot TO RE market has been red hot for so long, and will continue to get even hotter as everyone wants to come to TO, and so anyone who wants to buy might as well buy now? Correct?

“I don’t know”, did your handle used to be “i am stupid” or “My life is a pile of shit”. Haven’t heard from those 2 in a while. However, the message from your Post today brought both of them to mind.

#24 Context on 12.27.16 at 7:33 pm

A balanced portfolio looks cool to me. Now if the herd rushes into a Real Estate buying panic there is an old saying. When the herd goes one way, go in the opposite direction, as the herd mentally is always wrong.

#25 TurnerNation on 12.27.16 at 7:52 pm

Well ivory tower as I’m almost done an Mba this will put me almost 2/3rds of way along the road to profdom?! I proffer not

(I’m doing it mainly for social standing and ego. I meet and know many with Masters. A hobbyist. Buying and selling is the only way, really.)

#26 Renter's Revenge! on 12.27.16 at 8:11 pm

#2 Context on 12.27.16 at 5:09 pm
Did anyone see the video presentation in the Globe and Mail about the young female millennial buying a home in Belgrave to commute for work to Toronto? I cannot rationalize the stats, as she could have done better in Woodstock for example. Is this what they call fake news with a 5 hour round trip by car to go to work, so she could afford to buy a detach?

=========================

Just watched it. Smh. Imagine using a car with 350,000km on it, that sometimes doesn’t start, to make a 54km daily commute to work for the next 25 years! And having no money left over to buy, or even finance, a new car if the old one dies. It’s a disaster waiting to happen… but it is “important to her that millennials know there are alternatives to home ownership in Toronto.” Lol. Hopefully she finds this blog soon. Garth save her.

Imagine living in Toronto and trying to date someone in Belgrave. I hope for her sake that she meets a nice partner out there!

#27 Doug t on 12.27.16 at 8:14 pm

Should interesting how Canada reacts to policies by Trump. The year is going to be ugly for sure – do something good for your self and your family cause you never know what the future holds

#28 Andrew Woburn on 12.27.16 at 8:15 pm

My gut instinct is that this guy is closer to the truth about the future demand for oil than some industry optimists. China alone faces a huge air quality challenge as does India as it develops. Even Madrid was having air pollution issues over Christmas.

However, if you read the whole article, be aware that the Japanese plan to import liquid hydrogen from Australia seems to be based on deriving it from lignite which doesn’t sound very green.

“The oil industry must brace for five energy “tsunamis” that threaten to drag prices as low as $10 a barrel in less than a decade, according to Engie SA’s innovation chief.

The falling cost of solar power and battery storage, rising sales of electric vehicles, increasingly “smart” buildings and cheap hydrogen will all weigh on crude, Thierry Lepercq, head of research, technology and innovation at the French energy company, said in an interview.

“Even if oil demand continues to climb until 2025, its price could drop to $10 if markets anticipate a significant fall in demand,” Lepercq said at his office near Paris. Crude last slumped to that level in 1998.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-20/energy-tsunamis-threaten-to-drag-oil-down-to-10-engie-says

#29 For those about to flop... on 12.27.16 at 8:24 pm

#155 Paul Stacey on 12.27.16 at 4:44 pm
I personally would like to say Thank You to Garth for dedicating a blog about Roy. What a tribute!! And Thank you for being such a kind-hearted soul that would want to do something like this for one of your followers. That is a class act, guy. Thanks also go out to all who have posted their thoughts and memories of him. It truly means a lot to my mom and I. We will all miss him until we meet again.

M64WI
M41WI

///////////////////////////////////////

Thanks for this post Paul…..nice GAP code!
I did look at your details yesterday in the obituary and realized we were about a year apart in age.

Maybe that was part of the reason your dad was so kind to me.

Also as I stated yesterday.

My brothers name is Paul.

Boom would have loved that…

M42BC

#30 will on 12.27.16 at 8:35 pm

Well like I said the other day, let us pray for a drop in the tsx again a la last January. The materials index anyone?

#31 Smoking Man on 12.27.16 at 9:01 pm

#148 SWL1976 on 12.27.16 at 3:05 pm
The never let a good crisis go to waste and tax the serfs to oblivion. All while telling us its for our own good
Doesn’t lesson the severity of the situation
…….

I’m not even going to attempt to tell you that there has been no warming detect for over 18 years by Nasa Sat-lights. And tell you the truth about Artic and polar ice caps.

What I will tell you, the link to the Guardian you provided is meaningless. Globalist agenda driven rag.

This is how it all began, 20 or 30 years ago, a bunch of billionaires feeling wealth guilt got together and wanted to do something nice for humanity. Saw the complete injustice between have countries and have not countries. It’s a noble thought and what normal human would not lift a hand to fellow man so long as it doesn’t cost them a cent. Realizing there is resistance a strategy needed to be figured out.

So how do you do it?

Consolidate MSM and work through the UN and education system, is it a coincidence that all of a sudden SJW are popping up in every western country at the same time?

They have educated 2 generations and working on 3 climate change religion as a fact. Truth by consensus.
Climate change taxes will be the initial funding for a one world govt. Then a one world police force.

Pairs is a done deal…

The last remaining obstacle in the Rockefeller fantasy, Straight white male USA cowboys armed to nuts with assault weapons and lots of ammo protecting the constitution.
Let’s try Gender Politics.

Gender politics= emasculate and shame what remaining real cowboys are still around, fearing they might shoot back when they are forced to pay a global tax, give up individual freedom and nationhood.

Power corrupts, absolute power absolutely corrupts. One world govt at first beautiful thing, We lift up the impoverished and bring harmony into the world. Then some heathen would get control and unleash tyranny.

One world govt can only work when we can all read each other’s minds like they do on Nictonite.

Climate Change is just one of the puzzle piece if you look hard enough with open eyes. You will see how all the pieces of Cultural Marxism fit together to achieve that goal.

Lucky for the entire planet, Deplorables put Trump in the white house, logic, and reason will replace emotionally imbalance minds.

America will be great again, And Canada will follow no matter who loyal Butts is to the cause. T2 One term wonder.

Dr. Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics
N57LB

#32 Pete on 12.27.16 at 9:01 pm

Big changes ahead. Word from overseas tonight. Get ready for Prince Charles or his son to take the throne. Not that the Royals matter to me but I don’t want anyone to be able to say that I had been oblivious to the events unfolding.
Lots of us foretold The Donald’s election but only Smoking Man gets the credit.

#33 Context on 12.27.16 at 9:09 pm

#25 Turner Nation:- I assume your taking the evening 32 month duration at UofT twice a week. Much better to take it all at once and get it over with; night school sucks, and summer school interferes with one’s social life.

#34 Metaxa on 12.27.16 at 9:13 pm

“I don’t know”, did your handle used to be “i am stupid” or “My life is a pile of shit”. Haven’t heard from those 2 in a while. However, the message from your Post today brought both of them to mind.

All the nice warm fuzzies from yesterday’s post about a nice man swept away by a bitter one, eh?

I thought we were to go to the post, not the poster?

The man wasn’t offering violence, it was an opinion.

#35 golden retrievers are great on 12.27.16 at 9:24 pm

DELETED

#36 Smoking Man on 12.27.16 at 9:25 pm

SWL1976

I forgot to mention corporatism and education as a puzzle piece. More and more mindless occupations require a degree. Corps like banks, media that pay ok rates want degrees. Obedience certificates for mindless tasks.

The CEO’s absolutely know they are not getting quality, problem-solving skills, critical thinking. That’s not part of the big plan.

It’s irrelevant now.

President Trump.

#37 SWL1976 on 12.27.16 at 9:38 pm

#153 Polls R Shake

And the Antarctic has record ice. Not to mention 50% of the planet earth is below zero or has been snowed on already.

Try again genius.

—————————-

50% of the planet having been snowed on already is called winter in the Northern Hemisphere, its been happening for thousands of years, and seeing how it is summer in Antarctica right now so I doubt there is record ice.

You failed to even respond to any of the factual data I provided, so as you moniker would lead us to believe, you may be just about as fake as them polls.

Anyways, arguing with you reminds me of a Mark Twain saying you may or may not be familiar with…

Careful not to argue with a fool, for onlookers may not be able to tell the difference

#38 Smoking Man on 12.27.16 at 9:39 pm

Altho I’m an outspoken atheist.

I would rather have god taught in school for spirituality, My donation is voluntary at that point.

With God tossed aside and Climate Change Religion the replacement, donations are mandatory.

I have have a problem with that.

#39 yorkville renter on 12.27.16 at 9:44 pm

Live in Belgrave (which sounds like a “beautiful cemetary plot”) and commute to Toronto?

NO F’N WAY!?!!!

And why? To say you own a house?

Here’s the alternative for millennials who can’t own in Toronto: Save your money and rent.

#40 Smoking Man on 12.27.16 at 9:45 pm

#32 Pete on 12.27.16 at 9:01 pm
Big changes ahead. Word from overseas tonight. Get ready for Prince Charles or his son to take the throne. Not that the Royals matter to me but I don’t want anyone to be able to say that I had been oblivious to the events unfolding.
Lots of us foretold The Donald’s election but only Smoking Man gets the credit.
…..

I’m betting on her Grandson. Prince Charles not a chance. Now go see the bookies.

#41 Smoking Man on 12.27.16 at 9:52 pm

#41 Smoking Man on 12.27.16 at 9:51 pm
Oh, to be invited to this one. https://www.weforum.org/

I don’t have to be there to know what those faces will look like talking about the next POTUS being sworn in on Jan 20th

https://www.google.ca/search?q=shocked+faces&hl=en&biw=1024&bih=648&site=webhp&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiBia6V8JXRAhWJzIMKHQjwDUoQ_AUIBigB

Still waiting for my invite to the Deploraball inauguration.

#42 SWL1976 on 12.27.16 at 9:59 pm

#31 Smoking Man

This is how it all began, 20 or 30 years ago, a bunch of billionaires feeling wealth guilt got together and wanted to do something nice for humanity.

—————-

Actually it was the Club of Rome founded in 1968 where the climate change crisis was brainstormed.

I agree with you on many of the points you raised and full well understand the plan for a one world government and the new world order police state on the horizon. However, I disagree that Trump is any sort of solution, or will be in any meaningful way. One only has to look at how he has stacked his cabinet to see that the swamp is not, or will not be drained.

I love how the Trump campaign did somewhat blow the lid off of many topics that did seem somewhat taboo with regards to global conspiracies, but that seems to be where it has ended.

Time will tell.

I fear America has better odds at becoming the totalitarian police state that the real crazies have been planning for decades than it does at being great again.

I full well understand that there needs to be a major shift in how we all think and react to one another to defeat what is planned for us, here in North America and World wide. The days of fighting with guns needs to end for humanity to reach its true potential. The military Industrial complex is far to big of a beast to be conquered by Joe six pack and and his stash of small munition guns.

We need evolution, not revolution

#43 InvestorsFriend on 12.27.16 at 10:02 pm

The next King of England?

smoking Man said:

“I’m betting on her Grandson. Prince Charles not a chance. Now go see the bookies.”

***********************************
I suspect that upon the death of the Queen, and not before, the headline will read:

“Charles In Charge”

The Monarchy is about nothing is not traditional and the line of succession will be respected.

William will be next only if the Queen outlives Charles which is entirely possible unless the current illness is indeed very serious.

What MAY happen next is that the Queen if she gets feeble could turn her duties over to Charles as Regent while she remains Queen.

The Queen is a tireless worker and I respect her greatly. She has fulfilled her role with the greatest of grace and dignity. Long may she reign over us.

#44 InvestorsFriend on 12.27.16 at 10:08 pm

Best Place to Watch for announcement of the next King:

I believe it is the balcony of the St. James Palace (just near Buckingham Palace) where tradition I was told dictates that the death of the Queen would be announced. But that is likely to be ceremonial as news will surely leak out or be put out on the wires well before the traditional voice announcement is made.

I stand to be corrected by more knowledgeable monarch watchers.

#45 golden retrievers are great on 12.27.16 at 10:08 pm

DELETED

#46 Johnny hockey on 12.27.16 at 10:25 pm

The key to living long and good is to take the highest paying job you can get within walking distance from your home. And enjoying a bottle of red every other weekend.

#47 Smoking Man on 12.27.16 at 10:25 pm

Was reading some of the columns here https://www.weforum.org/

Absolutely no clue what the sentiment is on the ground, they live in a different world than 99% of the people.

Guessing not one of them knocked on the door of a commoner to hustle them and earn some loot, it’s just given to them. Clueless .

Notice how not one person at Davos has a
Ph.D. in Herdonomics.

#48 Doug in London on 12.27.16 at 10:30 pm

@Context, post #22:
I didn’t see the video clip but remember reading in The Globe about some millennial woman buying a house in Belgrave, some time in the last month. I looked it up on Google Maps and was surprised to see where it is, not far from Wingham. That’s the height of insanity living way out there and commuting everyday! It shows you how far the bubble has gone when someone will do anything, possibly even sell their soul, just to own a house.

#49 Seven--seventy--surprises on 12.27.16 at 10:35 pm

Seven years ago, Dec 2009, I found this blog. I was working full-time but thinking about retiring and downsizing from my house to a condo. Besides the house, I owned the family house in another province and a resort condo in the US–lots of real estate. By going to cash in 2007, I had escaped the worst of the crash, but 2 years later I was still in cash, without a financial advisor. More or less in order, here’s what happened next–sold the house and got rid of half my stuff, rented a condo, retired, did some consulting, found a financial advisor and started investing again, travelled a lot, had surgery and radiation (I was lucky), sold the resort condo, emptied and sold the family house, moved across the country after 35 years, became a full-time caregiver–never in a million years did I envisage this–and turned seventy. Who knew life would keep on being full of surprises? Through it all, I have enjoyed Garth’s wit and taken some of his advice–and I have also appreciated the voices of the commenters. Lately, bored with politics, I have started reading months of the blog that I missed from previous years–an indication of good writing and durable advice, that it still is interesting and lively now. Thanks, Garth, and long may you continue!

#50 Yuus bin Haad on 12.27.16 at 10:38 pm

What’s wrong with coal?

#51 ExPat on 12.27.16 at 10:39 pm

I’m looking for a pretty significant drop in stocks early into the next president’s term (USA). He, like many a good CEO will want to have something to blame on his predecessor. You might recall Mr. Obama had a real doozy that he was able to blame on his predecessor for a good long time. A market correction will serve the purpose for Mr. Trump fairly well. Look for at least a 10% correction early in 2017. Gold will be a good place to allocate 25-30% of your portfolio. Personally I prefer the junior miners, GG and NDG with an even split, 15% each. Hell, even Mr. Turner Knows there will be a significant correction, he’s been in the game for a while and knows it’s time to buckle the investment seatbelt for what will be a wild and woolly ride over the next four to eight years.

#52 45north on 12.27.16 at 10:43 pm

Context: Did anyone see the video presentation in the Globe and Mail about the young female millennial buying a home in Belgrave to commute for work to Toronto?

Alyssa Gowing, 27, bought her Belgrave, Ont., home in July.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/genymoney/mortgage-overload-canadian-housing-finance/article33279552/

you got to be kidding! 2 hours 17 minutes from Huron St. Toronto. the house was built before the 1st World War. Bubble Construction. no insulation. old windows.

which would make sense if you had an extensive support network in Belgrave Ontario. You had retired with a very good pension and didn’t need to drive anywhere. You had $200,000 extra for renovations. You didn’t spend much time on the internet.

#53 Chris P on 12.27.16 at 10:52 pm

Gold is the currency of Kings

Kings are dead. Just like gold

#54 Tesla Balls of Fire on 12.27.16 at 11:11 pm

#31 Smoking Man on 12.27.16 at 9:01 pm

#148 SWL1976 on 12.27.16 at 3:05 pm
The never let a good crisis go to waste and tax the serfs to oblivion. All while telling us its for our own good
Doesn’t lesson the severity of the situation
…….

I’m not even going to attempt to tell you that there has been no warming detect for over 18 years by Nasa Sat-lights. And tell you the truth about Artic and polar ice caps.

What I will tell you, the link to the Guardian you provided is meaningless. Globalist agenda driven rag.

This is how it all began, 20 or 30 years ago, a bunch of billionaires feeling wealth guilt got together and wanted to do something nice for humanity. Saw the complete injustice between have countries and have not countries. It’s a noble thought and what normal human would not lift a hand to fellow man so long as it doesn’t cost them a cent. Realizing there is resistance a strategy needed to be figured out.

So how do you do it?

Consolidate MSM and work through the UN and education system, is it a coincidence that all of a sudden SJW are popping up in every western country at the same time?

They have educated 2 generations and working on 3 climate change religion as a fact. Truth by consensus.
Climate change taxes will be the initial funding for a one world govt. Then a one world police force.

Pairs is a done deal…

The last remaining obstacle in the Rockefeller fantasy, Straight white male USA cowboys armed to nuts with assault weapons and lots of ammo protecting the constitution.
Let’s try Gender Politics.

Gender politics= emasculate and shame what remaining real cowboys are still around, fearing they might shoot back when they are forced to pay a global tax, give up individual freedom and nationhood.

Power corrupts, absolute power absolutely corrupts. One world govt at first beautiful thing, We lift up the impoverished and bring harmony into the world. Then some heathen would get control and unleash tyranny.

One world govt can only work when we can all read each other’s minds like they do on Nictonite.

Climate Change is just one of the puzzle piece if you look hard enough with open eyes. You will see how all the pieces of Cultural Marxism fit together to achieve that goal.

Lucky for the entire planet, Deplorables put Trump in the white house, logic, and reason will replace emotionally imbalance minds.

America will be great again, And Canada will follow no matter who loyal Butts is to the cause. T2 One term wonder.

Dr. Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics
N57LB

Nice rant.. try science…

The plateau is over.. up up and away.. starting to look like Gore’s wet dreams…

Still the full role of humans in it all and best path forward is a worthy debate

https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/2016temperature.png

#55 Interstellar Deplorables on 12.27.16 at 11:21 pm

#47 Smoking Man on 12.27.16 at 10:25 pm

Was reading some of the columns here https://www.weforum.org/

Absolutely no clue what the sentiment is on the ground, they live in a different world than 99% of the people.

Guessing not one of them knocked on the door of a commoner to hustle them and earn some loot, it’s just given to them. Clueless .

Notice how not one person at Davos has a
Ph.D. in Herdonomics.

__

How many deplorables are in trumps cabinet?

#56 Where's The Money Guido? on 12.27.16 at 11:23 pm

Re: #2 Context on 12.27.16 at 5:09 pm
Is this what they call fake news with a 5 hour round trip by car to go to work, so she could afford to buy a detach?

When I worked in SF Cali in the late 80;s guys I worked with were commuting 3 hours one way to work at 7 am. So they had to be on the road by 4 am. Incredible that they were doing it just to pay the mortgage and previous, in some cases, 3 exes alimony-child support. They said they had to or else get thrown in the slammer. What a way to live. Just not worth it…

#57 You call it asset, I call it debt on 12.27.16 at 11:39 pm

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/02/opinion/in-greece-property-is-debt.htmltarget=

Asset or debt?

#58 It's all relative on 12.27.16 at 11:44 pm

They come consider it cheap and they want their moolah out of china

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.thestar.com/amp/news/world/2016/12/23/canadas-real-estate-boom-a-chinese-perspective.html

#59 Jamal on 12.27.16 at 11:58 pm

DOW Jones when Obama Took office (after years of misadventures by the Bushy Guy) – 7,949.09

DOW JONES today: 19,945.04

– Let us see what the new incarnation of Republicans bring.

#60 Here we go again on 12.28.16 at 12:06 am

Definition of madness! Short term memory.

USA housing near precrash prices!

http://www.businessinsider.com/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-home-price-index-october-2016-2016-12

#61 Context on 12.28.16 at 12:22 am

#39 Yorkville renter:- The problem there is the two lane highway during the winter as this village is in the sticks. There are no goods or services there, just a community center; a church; small variety store; a gas station and that is about all she wrote.

#62 Nonplused on 12.28.16 at 12:24 am

I have to disagree with some of the oil forecasting appearing in the posts lately (again). Sure oil prices are volatile and they have been down and they will be down for a while due to over supply. But it has to be remembered that extra oil supply was all developed at $80 a barrel delivered cost. Some US shale oil fields can be produced for closer to $60 a barrel, but not many. And it’s not likely that there are many places anywhere else in the world that shale oil makes sense at less than $60-80 per barrel. This is true of deep water production as well.

The cheap, easy oil has all mostly already been found and drilled. Sure Saudi Arabia still has lots of oil they can produce for $20 a barrel or less, but they’ve already got wells in all the fields and those fields are half empty.

Oil will, like all non-renewable commodities, continue a gradual increase in prices that drive it to more “high value” uses in the economy. If you liken it to say gold mining (or any other mining), the easiest to access and highest grade ores are mined first (because that yields the most profit at lower prices and seeming abundance), but as those reserves are exhausted miners move into more remote and lower yield deposits, and prices must therefore rise over time, driving down demand. Anyone who’s been to something the the Colorado School of Mines knows this.

Are we running out of oil? No, or at least not soon. Are we running out of cheap oil? Yes.

Are we going to replace oil with solar power? Some of it but not much, the energy return on energy invested (EROEI) is pretty low so it will take a lot of work. Electric cars? They run primarily on Coal, Natural Gas, Oil, and Nuclear. They only get about 5% of their energy from renewables same as the rest of the power grid. There is no evidence at this point they do anything to reduce the total carbon footprint over an economy regular car. (For those who don’t know how it all works, you have to follow the electricity back to where it was generated because electricity is not a power source it is a power transmission medium. There is no supply of electricity unless you generate it using some other thermodynamic process. Hydrogen is the same by the way, it comes from natural gas mostly and it’s cheaper and greener to burn the natural gas.)

Oil is the best source of energy human kind has ever discovered including it’s many chemical uses. It is the life blood of the economy. It hasn’t been replaced yet and it won’t be for a very long time.

Electric cars are interesting, but there are never going to be enough windmills for everyone to have one. It simply doesn’t scale. Until another source of energy is discovered that does scale, it’s going to be hydrocarbons and there isn’t anything that can be done about it. So far the only candidates are nuclear fusion and maybe nuclear Thorium, but these two potential sources have been 10 years away from commercial production for 70 years now.

So the lesson of all of this is don’t be short oil at $25, and probably not at $50 either unless you can read the short term market very well. In a few years it goes back to $60, then $80, and then slowly up from there.

All you have to do if you want proof of this is walk around a campground some time. Nearly everybody has a generator because it’s still cheaper than solar to run even the limited 12 volt equipment in the trailer, and what isn’t running on the generator is running of propane, which is a hydrocarbon in the middle of natural gas and gasoline. (You have to understand the C1, C2, C2,… C8, etc. nature of hydrocarbons to understand that but basically propane comes from the same place as natural gas and oil do, it’s just easier to compress than natural gas and easier to run a camp fridge, stove, heater and hot water heater on than oil.)

And the waste that the US fracking boom created! They flared off 100’s of millions of cubic feet of gas for years, the people on the space station could see it from up there, just because they had no way to move the gas to market but they wanted the oil! This sort of flagrant waste of natural gas hadn’t been seen in 40 years outside of the Middle East and maybe Russia.

#63 Tony on 12.28.16 at 12:57 am

Re: #10 the Jaguar on 12.27.16 at 5:50 pm

I guess you didn’t read the news about the minimum wage in Alberta going to 15 dollars an hour. This means jobs will leave the province wholesale.

#64 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 12.28.16 at 1:17 am

DELETED

#65 fishman on 12.28.16 at 1:18 am

Gold is the currency of kings,
The Romans said gold was the muscles of an army,
Chinese really like gold,

Last week three Chinese warships turn up in front of Victoria & asked permission to tie up at Esquimalt. So the RCN says what the … we didn’t know you were coming. No you can’t. This yard is off limits.
They would have had to have radioed in to traffic, but locals had no prior knowledge for lining up tugs,pilots, moorage, that sort of thing. Strange.
They put em up for a couple days at Ogden point where the cruise ships go. Open house. Point of interest, lots of female sailors, nobody speaks english. I mean jeez, three Chinese warships turn up on your front door & nobody knows anything. Nobody says anything either as I bet none of you blog dogs heard about this. I wonder if the lil potato got told by one of his Navy defence staff or by a liberal donor walking his dog along Ogden Point or maybe he reads Garth’s blog.

#66 Paerksville senior on 12.28.16 at 1:52 am

Garth, you are about to fall into the trap of the house hucksters and over inflate your vision of growth in the stock market.

The dow jones always reacts joyously whenever a republican huckster becomes president–remember the joyous and buoyant growth that greeted rotten ronnie after his inauguration and the bubble that led the DJ to break 1000! But then his Alzheimers became evident and reality prevailed.

Same shiny is going to hit the fan as soon as the bubble boy starts his trade war—and he looks like he will bump up against some formidable opponents-Both China and the European Union have the ability to disrupt the supply chains-especially in agriculture and capital goods—and guess what the Louisiana purchase produces.

Like in the 80’s, some hard times are in store ushered in with higher interest rates.

Sure, the economy will eventually bounce back-but to quote Bill Cosby “Noah, how long can you tread water”.

Trumpian Voodoo economics can only encounter deficits that will put interest costs out of sight and credit availability (think Canadian commercial paper) will only become a fond memory as the the US printing presses are put into high gear.

Hot air balloons only remain aloft so long!

#67 Leo Trollstoy on 12.28.16 at 2:31 am

US real estate will continue BOOOMING! says Robert Schiller!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-27/trump-win-could-usher-in-boom-for-u-s-housing-says-shiller

#68 Euro observer on 12.28.16 at 2:59 am

What is happening on Jan 23rd 2017, Monday?

BOC interest rate announcement?

#69 Freedom First on 12.28.16 at 3:23 am

#34 Metaxa

Yes. We should all be aware of what idiocy we Post. Lest we make ourselves a target. As you just did Metaxa.

It’s ok though. I always forgive you, as I know you can’t spot idiocy. In fact, you have a habit of defending it.

#70 nubbers on 12.28.16 at 4:44 am

Yuus bin Haad @50
What’s wrong with coal?

Coal is mostly carbon. When burnt with oxygen it produces nearly double the greenhouse gas CO2 (per unit of energy released) compared to natural gas, where half of the energy comes from burning hydrogen to produce water.

That part of coal which is not carbon includes a lot of sulphur which becomes sulphuric acid in acid rain.

Coal is best left in the ground.

#71 nubbers on 12.28.16 at 4:45 am

Messed up the blockquote terminator again. You will just have to use your imagination.

#72 Stock Picker on 12.28.16 at 6:11 am

Garth…couldn’t disagree more about Maple….stock picker maple….not index maple…..many interlisted maple stocks on fire……index who cares…..stock picker portfolio up 60 ++ % …..index lagging…..stock pick rich…balance poor.

When your young interns write my obit they’ll say….that bastard stock picker got rich….Garth……not so much.

Delete now….but you’ll have to remember…dozens of CDN stocks will be up 50 % and more this year just to keep up with the valuations down south….and many will do much better because they get a majority of their revenue in USD. Pick now…..or forever be……balanced.

#73 Wrk.Dover on 12.28.16 at 7:43 am

46 Johnny hockey on 12.27.16 at 10:25 pm
The key to living long and good is to take the highest paying job you can get within walking distance from your home. And enjoying a bottle of red every other weekend.
—————————
Worth repeating over and over until someone heeds this excellent advice.

It worked like this for thousands of years but today seems absurd to live this way? But why?

#74 the Jaguar on 12.28.16 at 8:11 am

@ Tony #63
I did read about the increase, but think the impact is overstated in a province that has paid workers a good wage level for some time. Businesses locate where they do for other reasons.

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.28.16 at 8:18 am

@#48 Doug in London
“That’s the height of insanity living way out there and commuting everyday! It shows you how far the bubble has gone when someone will do anything, possibly even sell their soul, just to own a house.”
********************************************

Thats nothing. At least THAT idiot bought a house.
A coworker lives in Agassiz and commutes everyday to Vancouver.
90 miles each way……..
And he RENTS.

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.28.16 at 8:28 am

@#65 fishman
“I mean jeez, three Chinese warships turn up on your front door & nobody knows anything. ”
********************************************

We better get used to it.
China is ramping up its “Blue Water”( deep ocean) navy and flexing its muscles.
Something about the American navy patroling in their backyard for the last 70 years thats annoyed the hell out of them.
Expect more of this until we go to war in the South China Sea.
Probably over something trivial.
When is Trump sworn in as the 45th President?

Oh, and have you been aboard a Canadian Navy ship lately? Lots of women of asian decent aboard those ones too….
Get used to it.

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/27/asia/china-aircraft-carrier-pacific/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwiE567k_pbRAhVJzWMKHREzAFUQFggaMAE&usg=AFQjCNFyqQkbhHHpwxAxuej_R5pkWTlQjw

#77 Joshua Carriere on 12.28.16 at 8:55 am

I disagree with your outlook on oil. Oil has formed a classic bottoming pattern is is headed for $79 by Jan. 2018
http://imgur.com/a/27vkP

#78 coopoiler on 12.28.16 at 9:21 am

To #24
So you think the herd is always wrong. Ever watch lions hunt? They always single out the single one.

#79 Terrence on 12.28.16 at 9:28 am

Totally agree, EXCEPT on bond market its entering into dangerous territory, govts around the world are in huge debt, including Canada , look 4 all 3 levels of govt here to begin taxing the hell out of the population, especially those of us who own property! Happy New year it gets ugly here on out!

#80 Slinky on 12.28.16 at 9:54 am

2015 was the worst year ever with preferred shares. Retirees crying from every corner of Canada. I was surprised too. Poloz cut rates and surprised us all. A brutal bottom, then a slow grind up and 5% dividend. It seems so obvious in hindsight. Yet so hard to buy as an asset rises from the bottom.

Retail always buys at the worst time. And always waits too long to buy.+

Buy preferreds for the dividend. Enjoy the tax-advantaged cash flow and forget about the capital values – which will restore as rates eventually move higher. So many people here have a very thin understanding of what fixed income is for. — Garth

#81 coopoiler on 12.28.16 at 10:04 am

So What does the Louisiana purchase Produce? I don’t know.

#82 Andrew t on 12.28.16 at 10:09 am

#47 Smoking Man on 12.27.16 at 10:25 pm

Was reading some of the columns here https://www.weforum.org/

Absolutely no clue what the sentiment is on the ground, they live in a different world than 99% of the people.

Guessing not one of them knocked on the door of a commoner to hustle them and earn some loot, it’s just given to them. Clueless .

Notice how not one person at Davos has a
Ph.D. in Herdonomics.

__

How many deplorables are in trumps cabinet?
—-
Ooh snap! Still, as someone who bailed on school way early as well, I have a certain affinity for Smokey’s prism of reality. I’m working on being a Smokey liberal. Us lefties need a kick up the arse and some fresh thinking. By the way, Smokey, ever read Thomas Pynchon? He’s too gonzo for some literary snobs but I think you might like it. Try Bleeding Edge, then work up to the dementia that is Gravity’s Rainbow.

#83 Maple alert - MASHDEX on 12.28.16 at 10:37 am

[…] Read more here:: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/12/27/maple-alert-2/ […]

#84 hope & ruin on 12.28.16 at 10:45 am

#38 Smoking Man on 12.27.16 at 9:39 pm
Altho I’m an outspoken atheist. I would rather have god taught in school for spirituality,
___________________

Also an atheist, or maybe an apatheist, but I think at a minimum, the bible and (maybe) other religious texts should be taught in school. We’re going to leave the most influential text of the last millennium out of the curriculum? For one the context of most of history will be poorly understood. Plus those kids will suck at jeopardy when they are older.

#85 maxx on 12.28.16 at 11:13 am

#19 Long Branch Apprentice on 12.27.16 at 6:44 pm

“Additional taxes on assets that can’t flee the country–i.e. real estate–become extremely attractive.

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.ca/2016/12/when-assets-such-as-real-estate-become.html

A glimpse into the future?”

Absolutely. It’s already here and will get worse, especially in Ontario, with its gargantuan amount of public (and private) debt, as well as out-of-control energy costs.

Next comes the carbon tax.

#86 Context on 12.28.16 at 11:23 am

#48 Doug in London:- The young woman has nothing there not even TV. She could have bought a nice detach home at 301 Simcoe Street in Woodstock for $159,900 around the corner from the city center. All she needed was to spend $100 on an Omni directional HD 8008 Ultra 4K set up in the attic for free TV for a minimum of 15 free channels OTA. Now for the internet all she needed was to get up, and adjust the settings unto a free public high speed system to save money.

#87 NoName on 12.28.16 at 11:25 am

China/India Economy, Coruption, Manufacturing Construction, Manufacturing and Human Rights

Over past few days i was reading and doing some research focusing mainly china and ill throw india just to compare it, in first section, it seems that in a “near” future both countries are facing some serious problems, from pollution, corruption, aging demographics and rapidly slowing growth. According to my research, i firmly concluded that number that are coming out of those two countries are not as reliable as officials claim to be. I claim that Chinas growth is more likely around 4% and india 6ish percent. they might do something and avoid financial crisis but they cant do much to fight slow down, if I am correct china borrows 5$ to generate 0.83$ growth.

As I type its safe to asume that newest maoist is prosecuting estimated 55-65 thousand hi rinking gov officials for bribe taking and corruption. Just to put things in perspective about shinanigans that goes there in 2012 there was 160k officials found guilty, and last year (2015) that number was twice as big 340k.

I’ll not comment on construction we all know its shady, but manufacturing is getting more and more efficient as we speak, robots and automated equipment are gutting workforce. Problem with this that they cant boost domestic consumption because on a paper disposable income per capita is growing while working stiff purchasing power is shrinking. Kind of what is happening here beut at least we can complain about it. Its no uncommon in china to jail, activist and journalists that cover protests.

And i forgot to add this if Trupm imposes tariffs of measly 15% on chinese goods it will shed 2% of that country gdp.

And if you believe any of this i have some land to sell you, while interest rate are steel low, so hurry up time is at essence.

NoName
Armchair macro economist by; night, weekend and on holidays. Keeper of currents, bringer of power, lord of the lights, wizard of wires and controller of robots, monday to friday and occasional saturday.

M4oON

note to my self
-dont qiut day job!

#88 InvestorsFriend on 12.28.16 at 11:39 am

When Good News is Verboten

#59 Jamal on 12.27.16 at 11:58 pm pointed out:

DOW Jones when Obama Took office (after years of misadventures by the Bushy Guy) – 7,949.09

DOW JONES today: 19,945.04

*********************************
Yet the Democrats seemed to be afraid to trumpet the incredible improvement in and excellent state of the U.S. economy…

I guess partly it has to do with my recent comment about averages. The fact that the typical American (95% who bothered to look) had a job and that most (though not all) had good jobs was not gong to stop the 5% unemployed (15% or more in some areas) and the other 15% or so that felt way underemployed from being absolutely bitter.

But the fact that it was verboten to really shout that America was already great was a strange thing. Democrats were afraid to state the fact that most aspects of the economy were very good.

Herdonomics indeed.

#89 NoName on 12.28.16 at 11:57 am

Oil is getting cheaper, not more expensive, 80$ a barrel is just imaginary number. i an mot big fan of pure electric cars but hybrids are here to stay and combination of those two will put big pressure on oil industry.

you can reat it here
https://goo.gl/oeDpGH

M4oON

#90 Damifino on 12.28.16 at 11:59 am

#62 Nonplused

Thanks for making the points I’ve grown too tired and frustrated to keep repeating. Keep up the good work.

BTW, Alex Epstein’s book is worth a read:

http://www.moralcaseforfossilfuels.com

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.28.16 at 12:12 pm

Thank God, Garth is back.
Had me worried for a while.
Probably was just a mild case of watching too many reruns of It’s a Wonderful Life.
Pretty common this time of the year.

#92 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.28.16 at 12:16 pm

#32 Pete on 12.27.16 at 9:01 pm
Lots of us foretold The Donald’s election but only Smoking Man gets the credit.
————————-
Smokey is the Prodigal Son.
No soup for you.

#93 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.28.16 at 12:25 pm

#53 Chris P on 12.27.16 at 10:52 pm
Gold is the currency of Kings
——————-
Whatever happened to Cash is King?

#94 NEVER GIVE UP on 12.28.16 at 12:51 pm

#53 Chris P on 12.27.16 at 10:52 pm
Gold is the currency of Kings

Kings are dead. Just like gold
=============================
Not expected to be taken literally.
If you have no imagination you can replace Kings with Elites, and Gold with Hard Assets.

#95 WUL on 12.28.16 at 1:12 pm

The DJIA is sentient, suffers from low self esteem and carries the “imposter syndrome”. When it approaches 20,000 it gets anxious and backs off. It should adopt the attitude of the Little Engine That Could. “I think I can. I think I can.”

#96 Context on 12.28.16 at 1:36 pm

#85 maxx:- They can send the carbon tax nonsense to Neverland. We need to raise the flag and go to war against the machine with protests using the social media. Hit the politicians hard as we the people won’t take it anymore from ripping us off, and wasting our tax money on useless spending.

#97 Roial1 on 12.28.16 at 1:45 pm

#46 Johnny hockey on 12.27.16 at 10:25 pm

The key to living long and good is to take the highest paying job you can get within walking distance from your home. And enjoying a bottle of red every other weekend.

——————————————————————

That has to be the most UN-Canadian thing that I have ever read. Bar none.

You must do the most hated job you can get. (Low pay, bad boss, long commute.) Just to start to qualify as a true Canadian.

And then you drink red wine????

Where’s the Molson’s beer?

That’s Canadian!

And don’t you forget it! YOU, YOU, YOU, ——Millenial!

#98 Smoking Man on 12.28.16 at 1:54 pm

The ice age is coming.

Studies by counties not tide to politics of climate change and its funding strategy.

Bundle up warmest.

http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/lawrence-solomon-proof-that-a-new-ice-age-has-already-started-is-stronger-than-ever-and-we-couldnt-be-less-prepared

#99 Thanks Garth on 12.28.16 at 1:59 pm

“Buy preferreds for the dividend. Enjoy the tax-advantaged cash flow and forget about the capital values – which will restore as rates eventually move higher. So many people here have a very thin understanding of what fixed income is for. — Garth’

FWIW, Garth, you helped push me into a deeper understanding of fixed income, particularly preferreds.

I own a range of Canadian preferreds and LOVE the quarterly dividends. I minimize my capital risk by dollar cost averaging , borrowed entirely from an ultra-low rate LOC and buying chunks on the dips.

So I get the tax write-off, and the dividend tax credit and preserve/build up wealth. Love it and its a great way to augment my RRSP/TFSA/RESP.

Thanks again Garth for all the ideas!

#100 Blacksheep on 12.28.16 at 2:00 pm

Tesla #54, Smoking man, SJW1976,

This is a re-post from days gone by:
——————————————
gtrz4peace # 241,
“Climate change is REAL. IT IS MAN-MADE”
—————————————
Wow….lots of EMOTION there G4P.

How bout we calm down and have a look at some basic math.

The following is from: M. A. Kominz, Western Michigan University, 2001.

http://curry.eas.gatech.edu/Courses/6140/ency/Chapter10/Ency_Oceans/Sea_Level_Variations.pdf
————————————–
Quote from Kominz pdf:

“For example, about 20 000 years ago, great ice sheets covered northern North America and Europe. The volume of ice in these glaciers removed enough water from the oceans to expose most continental shelves. Since then there has been a sea level rise (actually from about 20 000 to about 11 000 years ago) of about 120 m.”
————————————–
OK, the math.

Glaciers melted raising the sea level 120 M (393 ft) within the last 20,000 years.

120,000 millimetres (120m) divided by 20,000 years
= 6 MM rise in sea level, per year.

Here is why.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
—————————————————-
Quote from Kominz pdf:

“This is just the most recent of many, large changes in sea level caused by glaciers, These variations in climate and subsequent sea level changes have been tied to quasi-periodic variations in the Earth’s orbit and the tilt of the Earth’s spin
axis.”
————————————-
Is climate change real?

Of course.

Is it a cyclical, natural event that last occurred 2,000 to 20,000 years ago, without Man emitting, any Co2.

Is the sea level currently rising at a rate anywhere near, 6MM per year?

Nope.

Please explain why we are all doomed again?

#101 Polls R Phake on 12.28.16 at 2:23 pm

#70 nubbers on 12.28.16 at 4:44 am
Yuus bin Haad @50
What’s wrong with coal?

Coal is mostly carbon. When burnt with oxygen it produces nearly double the greenhouse gas CO2 (per unit of energy released) compared to natural gas, where half of the energy comes from burning hydrogen to produce water.

That part of coal which is not carbon includes a lot of sulphur which becomes sulphuric acid in acid rain.

Coal is best left in the ground.
__________________________________________

Leftist Socialist Agenda number 27:

Teach kids that CO2 is bad. Do not teach kids that CO2 is essential for life because it is food for plants.

#102 Polls R Phake on 12.28.16 at 2:33 pm

America will be great again, And Canada will follow no matter who loyal Butts is to the cause. T2 One term wonder.

Dr. Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics
N57LB

Nice rant.. try science…

The plateau is over.. up up and away.. starting to look like Gore’s wet dreams…

Still the full role of humans in it all and best path forward is a worthy debate

https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/2016temperature.png

__________________________________________

hahahahaha because the govt would NEVER lie to us right?

Nice link. Try reality. 50% of the planets land mass is at or below zero.

#103 Smoking Man on 12.28.16 at 2:52 pm

#96 Context on 12.28.16 at 1:36 pm
#85 maxx:- They can send the carbon tax nonsense to Neverland. We need to raise the flag and go to war against the machine with protests using the social media. Hit the politicians hard as we the people won’t take it anymore from ripping us off, and wasting our tax money on useless spending.

…….

Open a twitter account join me and Kevin Oleary and others trash butts, T2 and Wynee.

So happy Wynee not stepping down next election.
Will get crushed.

#104 jess on 12.28.16 at 2:59 pm

“the new normal going forward”

Melvin L. Watt, Director Federal Housing Finance Agency
Mortgage Bankers Association Annual Convention and Expo 2016 Boston, MA
October 24, 2016

https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/Prepared-Remarks-Director-Watt-at-MBA-2016.aspx
blog
https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/Pages/Insights.aspx
https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/Blog/Pages/Three-Easy-Steps-to-HARP-How-Homeowners-Can-Save-Thousands.aspx

#105 Context on 12.28.16 at 3:07 pm

#89 NoName:- I agree that electric auto transportation is changing somewhat. There is this gal in Europe who has a custom made golf cart parked in the garage at her part-time home for shopping. She takes it on the highway and on occasion leaves the gas burning cars behind as it has speed when she floors it, and parking it is no problem. I which I could afford one with those leather seats as its a custom build that cost her plenty.

#106 Tony on 12.28.16 at 3:27 pm

Re: #77 Joshua Carriere on 12.28.16 at 8:55 am

Odds are much greater a barrel of oil will fall back to its long term trend line of 30 dollars U.S. a barrel.

#107 Wrk.dover on 12.28.16 at 4:08 pm

#100 Blacksheep

The port Authorities in Miami, New York and Halifax will correct your second last question, the nope is a yes. For several decades running. Read more stuff on both sides of the argument your opinion is not science.

Put a full insulated ( so it will not sweat )cool glass of water on the counter. Measure what overflowed as it got warmer. Do the math on what one degree did, then do the math on that glass being as tall as the ocean is deep.

6mm a year. Sure. Easily being achieved.

#108 Metaxa on 12.28.16 at 4:49 pm

Yes. We should all be aware of what idiocy we Post. Lest we make ourselves a target. As you just did Metaxa.

Target?

Can anyone help me out here? Is this Internet Tuff Guy spew or is this a real threat to my safety?
Because if its a real threat may I remind you of something my 71 years has taught me.

A good lawyer never, ever asks a question if they don’t already know the answer. And an intelligent person never offers violence unless they are very certain of the outcome.

Plus in a few short days I’m going to be 72, respect your elders…especially ones who are perfectly fine with defending themselves in any manner needed.

Rumble! — Garth

#109 Blacksheep on 12.28.16 at 4:56 pm

Wrk # 107′

“The port Authorities in Miami, New York and Halifax will correct your second last question, the nope is a yes. For several decades running. Read more stuff on both sides of the argument your opinion is not science.”
———————————
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise

Quote from link:

“According to one study of measurements available from 1950 to 2009, these measurements show an average annual rise in sea level of 1.7 millimetres (0.067 in) ± 0.3 millimetres (0.012 in) per year during this period”

It seems Wiki disagrees.

So lets say it IS rising at 6MM per year, which is 3.5 time the actual rate, what the hell are you, me or anyone going to do about it?

How is Taxing the masses going to stop this proven, natural event from occurring.

I noticed you did not challenge the reasoning behind my post, simply the rate of water rise and even that’s incorrect.

#110 Context on 12.28.16 at 5:01 pm

#107 Wkr.dover:- Do tells us all why the oceans are getting warmer within the context of geo-physics.

#111 InvestorsFriend on 12.28.16 at 5:07 pm

The Alberta Carbon Tax – Is it Minor?

The Alberta carbon tax at 4.49 cents per litre of gasoline seems pretty minor. And it comes at a time when gasoline has been under $1.00 so I simply don’t see a big deal there for residents or even the likes of trucking companies and taxis.

The carbon tax of of $1.011 on natural gas is a much higher percentage of the cost of natural gas. (Which surprises me greatly given it was always said to be a clean fuel, well at least compared to coal). Fortuitously, this tax comes at a time when natural gas is amazingly cheap. So again, I don’t see a big deal here for residents or most businesses.

What about the oil sands that burn HUGE amounts of natural gas? I don’t know the impact as they are already paying a large emitters levy and I don’t know if they will pay the new carbon tax on natural gas consumed. I have not actually heard any oil companies complaining and in fact many endorsed the Alberta carbon tax as I recall.

Hard hit might be something like a greenhouse that was burning huge amounts of natural gas. But there again the price of natural gas has been very low and with the tax will still be far lower than peak prices.

So, a lot of vitriol against the carbon tax here in Alberta but I certainly see it as no big deal at all.

#112 isuckless on 12.28.16 at 5:20 pm

usually I do not engage in climate change discussion (as Garth observed, do not argue with the fool), but as someone who spent some of my life working on testing and measurement, this diagram is bullshit:
https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/2016temperature.png
from 1880? Temperature within 1 degree Centigrade?
Whatever was available in the USA in 1880 and used to measure temperature in the USA alone, was NOT precise and accurate enough. Not to mention the rest of the world. yes, there were accurate instruments, but they were expensive and not used all over the planet to measure temperature.
Other historical indirect temperature measurements (trees for example) are not accurate enough.
Up to relatively recent times, anything measured within few degrees over the whole globe was considered precise.
Measurement is not simple as this graph (no standard deviation for example) and fake news as what NASA is spewing is misinformation and wrong.
/rant end

#113 InvestorsFriend on 12.28.16 at 5:23 pm

Alberta Small Business Tax

To help businesses adjust to the carbon levy, Alberta’s small business corporate income tax rate is being reduced by one third, from 3% to 2% effective Jan 1, 2017. The reduction is projected to save small business owners $185 million in 2017-18.

************************************
An NDP government gave this tax reduction. NDP! As an owner of a profitable small business I already thought my provincial tax at 3% was laughably low.

Yet sore-loser conservative / wild rose supporters vilify the Alberta NPD government as being anti-business. Seriously.

Meanwhile working people struggling to get by in Alberta face marginal income tax rates that START at 25% on the first dollar of taxable income. (Thanks to our flat tax system in Alberta) And that can easily hit 50% if they face reductions on child tax benefits or their GST cheque for earning too much.

If people only knew how the tax system coddles the business owner and investor class they would be out with pitchforks, no?

Sorry if that is a negative thought, I just think the tax system favors business owners and the investor class too much. I for one, would not stop owning a small business or stop investing if the taxes on those profits were somewhat closer to the taxes on labour income..

#114 hope & ruin on 12.28.16 at 5:47 pm

@ smoking man

Wynne isn’t stepping down because she knows she will win another election. Anti-conservative sentiments are high still, T2 is popular, canadians will do everything possible to differentiate themselves from Americans/Trump. Hell, she even just admitted to making a mess of the electricity rates. Her arrogance is at an all-time high, nevermind the teacher union bribes. Corruption reigns in Ontario and she doesn’t care, knows she won’t be touched.

#115 isuckless on 12.28.16 at 6:08 pm

Quote:
Projections of future sea levels and stormwater levels in halifax harbour under three scenarios for 2000–2100: (1) 16 cm – a continuation of the historical rate of change; (2) 57 cm – the upper-limit projection for mean sea-level rise from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (2007); and (3) 1.3 m – a projection based on more recent scientific literature.

#116 Spectacle on 12.28.16 at 7:34 pm

Neat post Blacksheep…some will get it, others will do something else…
::::::::::::::::::
#100 Blacksheep on 12.28.16 at 2:00 pm
Tesla #54, Smoking man, SJW1976,

This is a re-post from days gone by:
——————————————
gtrz4peace # 241,
“Climate change is REAL. IT IS MAN-MADE”
—————————————
Wow….lots of EMOTION there G4P.

How bout we calm down and have a look at some of the math.

The following is from: M. A. Kominz, Western Michigan University, 2001.

http://curry.eas.gatech.edu/Courses/6140/ency/Chapter10/Ency_Oceans/Sea_Level_Variations.pdf
————————————–
Quote from Kominz pdf:

::::::::::::
Very interesting addition to my understanding of earths water tables, rise in levels and significance of such a seemingly small detail.
Reminds me of finding fossils on the northern Manitoba (650 km North of Winnipeg, Brrrr). Family ranch at the time, trilobites , sea shells etc. Yes, Manitoba was under water a long time ago, then glaciers receded, leaving the lakes . Lake Manitoba is one of the largest lakes in North america. That’s a big hole. Ps: dig down a few hundred feet in Manitoba and you will dig up frozen pieces of history. Pine cones, coniferous details etc, perfectly frozen/preserved. Ohh how we forget…..

Thanks Blacksheep. M

#117 Ronaldo on 12.29.16 at 1:40 am

#63 Tony on 12.28.16 at 12:57 am

Re: #10 the Jaguar on 12.27.16 at 5:50 pm

I guess you didn’t read the news about the minimum wage in Alberta going to 15 dollars an hour. This means jobs will leave the province wholesale.
————————————————————
I didn’t realize that there were jobs in Alberta that paid less than $15.00 per hour so raising the minimum wage to $15.00 should have little effect.

#118 Dave D on 12.29.16 at 9:21 am

Hey Garth, Most of the blog dogs will be socking away their $5500 TFSA contributions first week of 2017. Here’s an idea for a New years day post, pointers on how to make the most of funds added to the TFSA in these current market conditions (DOW / TSX way up)

#119 Folks mocking the doc ? on 12.29.16 at 9:37 am

and when they head to the ER ? He’s the guy to save their ass

Is it envy ? He makes more than 95% of the blog dogs ?

Or folks this dumb?

Of course , AT the ER their tunechanges . Behind the computer tough guys . Lol