The misleaders

SEXY modified

Paul’s a brutal little guy. “Got in to a Twitter debate with Dan Morrison the other night,” he says. Morrison is head poohbah of Vancouver’s real estate cartel, where he knows the eyes of a believing world are upon him.

“He finally acknowledged after me harassing him and beating him over the head that Zolo’s data is the same MLS data from which REBGV also derives their stats,” Paul says, referencing this site. “Point being, that real estate boards are in the business of creating sales activity. If any press got hold of these numbers they wouldn’t be reporting that prices are ‘still rising’. Quite the contrary, prices have been falling for about three months in the single family home segment of the marketplace…”

What Zolo does is analyze data (like Zillow in the States), and come up with an indy appraisal of trends in a marketplace. So while the real estate board relentlessly tells you how much prices have increased over a point in time 12 months previously, Zolo (and Zillow) identify the market momentum. After all, if you’re about to spend $2.8 million on a piece of crap like this…

CRAP

…it sure helps to know whether or not the market is rolling over before you write the deposit cheque. As detailed here, and nowhere else that also features compromised canines and sexual innuendos, detached home sales from Van city to Richmond, Burnaby and North Van were already in a steep sales decline before the Chinese Crash Tax of July 25th. The Sales/listings ratio has basically been halved in the past three weeks.

Anyway, here’s what Zolo makes of this market, as of Sunday. First, the raw numbers on price, which is almost the polar opposite of what Dan Morrison and his realtor buddies are telling people:

VAN SUMMARY

And, yikes, look at this graph below. Zolo calculates that the average detached house price actually peaked back during the March madness at about $1.5 million, and has lost an effective $400,000 since then, settling into the $1.1 million range. So, pity your poor BIL who walked into a deal last winter and has been telling you for for the last five months what a financial genius he is. Yeah, right. Fail.

VAN SOLD PRICE

And below is a classic little picture of why prices decline (other than elected idiots). The number of listings starts to inch higher, just as sales trend lower. At a certain inevitable point the public meme shifts from “But if we sell, what will we buy?” to, “Holy crap, we’d better cash out of this insane market before the greater fools catch on.”

As you can see, she’s started…

SALES INVENTORY

On July 11th this pathetic blog issued its final warning about a market clearly entering the next phase. “Get out” was the title, aimed at those who have seen a windfall profit bestowed upon them by the irrationality, emotionalism, nesting fetish, peer pressure, FOMO and house horniness of others. People who’d made an unfounded capital gain, those about to retire with the bulk of their net worth in one house, or new buyers who could easily be plunged under water by a 15-30% market decline, possibly lasting years – the message was for them.

Dan Morrison was telling them something entirely different. It’ll be interesting to see the score.

$ $ $

Anyway, be happy you don’t own houses in both Vancouver and London. As predicted, the Brexit fallout is making some people wonder why they ever voted the country out of the biggest, most beneficial free trade zone and economic union on the planet.

In July demand, sales and prices started into a slide of unknown depth or length. Sales are now in the fastest decline since the credit crisis of 2008. The pattern is like YVR. Trades were down about 20%, while average prices wobbled higher on thinning trade – until the last couple of weeks, during which London prices started to decline at the rate of a thousand pounds a day.

Consequences of Trumpism. Who knew?

BREXIT

213 comments ↓

#1 Jimmy on 08.14.16 at 2:52 pm

First place!

#2 Freedom First on 08.14.16 at 3:05 pm

I look after myself with near perfection. “All” women love me and think I’m the best mating partner available on the planet. It’s not easy to be me, I’ve got barely any free time because of all these women, who also want all my money.

#3 Victoria Real Estate Update on 08.14.16 at 3:18 pm

Detached house prices in Vancouver peaked in March.

Since then, possibly the 4 busiest and most important months of the year for a Canadian housing market – April, May, June and July – have gone by showing no price appreciation.

It appears that the peak is in and a thing of the past in delusional Vancouver.

#4 Bobby13 on 08.14.16 at 3:29 pm

Voting brexit was the right move. Obviously people there aren’t happy. The u s market is cooked also. Highs in the stock market aren’t indication of a healthy economy in this instance. Let the hemorrhage begin.

#5 chopstix on 08.14.16 at 3:35 pm

vancouver is in the express line to becoming a kardashian like city: full of great looking lines, T&A, but is fast losing it’s soul, warmth and integrity…it’s fast becoming fragmented with all the neighborhood demos (arbutus, kerrisdale, even burnaby near metrotown). there is also an increasing spate of demovictions that are causing so much worry and fear too, as this process is displacing so many people who rent (which is skyrocketing for dumpy places) because they can’t afford to buy in this crazily price d city…all for the mighty buck.

#6 Frank on 08.14.16 at 3:37 pm

The Zoo data doesn’t mesh with the local numbers I’ve been keeping in my hood (mostly townhouses and condos). The sales volume peaked 3 months ago but the deals that are closing are still hitting highs due to the tail end of fomo. Prices definitely didn’t peak 5 months ago around here.

It would just be nice to have the raw data instead of having to rely on someone else’s interpretation.

#7 Brazil ex-pat on 08.14.16 at 3:41 pm

“Anyway, be happy you don’t own houses in both Vancouver and London. As predicted, the Brexit fallout is making some people wonder why they ever voted the country out of the biggest, most beneficial free trade zone and economic union on the planet.”

Or if you VOTED OUT – be happy you are no longer controlled by an UN-elected troika in Brussels.

#8 Robert james on 08.14.16 at 3:56 pm

I think in Vancouver you will hear a lot of “didn’t see it coming ” in the very near future.

#9 GOD on 08.14.16 at 3:58 pm

Freedom First on 08.14.16 at 3:05 pm
I look after myself with near perfection. “All” women love me and think I’m the best mating partner available on the planet. It’s not easy to be me, I’ve got barely any free time because of all these women, who also want all my money.
———————————————————————————–
Come on Garth I know it is your sandbox but isn’t one Smokingman enough on this blog.

#10 Randy on 08.14.16 at 4:08 pm

Zolo is much nicer for me to navigate than realtor.ca

#11 jb on 08.14.16 at 4:11 pm

OK Garth, Where to from here? I am more than willing to admit the Vancouver market is well past its prime and may have started the long predicted decline to more reasonable valuations. Those that have heeded you counsel have sold and moved on. (You can only help those that are willing to listen). Vancouver and it’s 15% foreign buyers tax will lead the country to lower real estate prices. But what about other ‘black swans’ on the horizon? Recently our CND dollar has been rising and looks to continue in this regard. What are the potential effects of a Trump victory on the exchange rates? Would a Clinton victory be seen as a positive for the U.S. economy? My feeling is that this whole election has hurt the U.S. ‘brand’ significantly and investors around the world have been left scratching their heads wondering what goes on in Washington. Just as voters in London had enough of the shenanigans in Brussels, could investors in the U.S. market be looking for alternatives to a country that doesn’t seem to take the election of its highest office seriously? Will negative interest rates be an unexpected manifestation of this lack of confidence? How far will investors support the U.S. stock market when it increasingly appears to be stage managed and dangerously expensive in terms of price to earnings? I think there are lots of other risks out there aside from the Canadian housing market and blindly following the S & P 500 would be another one. What do you think?

#12 MF on 08.14.16 at 4:14 pm

Yeah right. If the EU is so great why is there a need for unending stimulus to keep it’s economy going?

Then there is the terror threat.

Remember the London train bombings?

And lol at the idea that London houses dropping in value is a bad thing. Oh so the poor Oligarchs have to park their money somewhere else. What a joke. Same situation there as here. Reduced wages, asset bubbles everywhere and now social strife.

Difference is the Brits had a chance and they took it. They will be way better off as the watch the EU implode from the outside. Great victory for democracy. Best story out of Europe in a long time. Best glimpse of hope for the western world we have seen in a while too. Hopefully More to come as more of us wake up to the lies.

MF

#13 Mean Gene on 08.14.16 at 4:20 pm

Real Estate boards are a bunch of septic tank pumpers.

#14 Freedom First on 08.14.16 at 4:25 pm

Smoking Man, thanks for putting those liberals in their place when it comes to complimenting another guy (old school). You really are the scum of the earth.

#15 Ex-Cowtown on 08.14.16 at 4:27 pm

“Consequences of Trumpism. Who knew?” – GT

Trumpism is the consequence of disconnected unelected and unaccountable elites making decisions that exploit the average citizen and place elitist views and causes ahead of those payiong the bills. The elites have no one to blame but themselves.

The hypocrisy and lunacy of the “Trump” phenomenon was neatly summed up in comments made by the press about there own over the top, blatantly one sided, super-biased anti Trump reporting. The MSM defended it by saying that Trump was so evil that he himself was responsible for their own bad behavior.

Try that one out in court folks: “Yes, Judge, I did rob that bank, but the banks are so evil that they forced me to do it.”

As the 70’s Canadian rock band April Wine once sang:

The whole worlds going crazy,

Crazy, crazy crazy, crazy

Hey baby, ya wanna go

crazy with meeee????

#16 Chaddywack on 08.14.16 at 4:34 pm

I showed this page to one of my former colleagues in vancouver. He’s quite invested in real estate.

First of all he didn’t believe these numbers are true, but he said ‘even if they were 1.4% for the year is still better than a gic plus I get rental income.’

Incidentally he also ‘makes’ all his tenants sign fixed term leases for a year so that when it expires he is not subject to rent controls. He told me he routinely raises the rents between 20 and 30% each year. He said occasionally people move out, but with a vacancy rate so low he has them by the you know what and they will do as he says.

He also wanted me to rent from him if I move back to vancouver. I laughed in his face and told him I’m not signing a fixed term lease. He said he wouldn’t make me sign that because he ‘knows me and I seem like a savy kind of guy’

I wonder if it’s because I go to this blog?

#17 45north on 08.14.16 at 4:39 pm

As you can see, she’s started…

I think Ross Kay said Vancouver prices peaked in February anyway it’s August and Christy Clark must be freaking. Not to mention every Tom, Dick and Harry who bought last year. Looks like they just lost their down payment.

#18 Brian Ripley on 08.14.16 at 4:44 pm

I will admit to being as bearish on real estate as anyone out there, but I don’t see a big change in attitude about real estate “value” yet. Here is my comparison of Vancouver and Toronto housing:
http://www.chpc.biz/compare-toronto–vancouver.html

Even though absorption rates have dropped in the last month or two, they are still at historical highs.

And on my 6 city chart I also plot the average of the summed prices of condos in Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto: http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html

That’s crazy.

The only market that I can see a change in sentiment is Calgary: http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

But even there, enthusiasm for strata is on the boil.

I don’t think the inflationistas have exhausted themselves yet. A hit to global stock markets in the fall/winter might smack some sense into everyone. But for the moment, party on dude.

#19 mouldyinYVR on 08.14.16 at 4:46 pm

Totally agree with you on this one Garth and how I wish it were so.
However in YVR it’s different – we’re different (and special) and if we have a little dip, we will soon bounce back. It’s the way we are. Irresistible, irreplaceable, ‘world class’ wonderful. Kinda’ like ‘freedom first’ (but better – way better).
Anyway – let’s check back in a year and see if you’re right.

#20 Marius on 08.14.16 at 4:47 pm

I trust Teranet far more than Zillow, and it show a very different picture in Vancouver:

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.aspx

Teranet data is old. Zolo is current. No wonder you like it better. — Garth

#21 Shirley Valentine on 08.14.16 at 4:50 pm

The hot studly beast of an alien has started his book tour!!! This is awesome. Party on the spaceship with captain smokey babe. See you at Seneca babe. Hot t-shirt.

#22 Say What? on 08.14.16 at 4:51 pm

“People who’d made an unfounded capital gain, those about to retire with the bulk of their net worth in one house, or new buyers who could easily be plunged under water by a 15-30% market decline, possibly lasting years – the message was for them.” – Garth

——————————-

Lasting years? Regardless, in 20 years, today’s prices will likely seem cheap.

#23 Vanreal on 08.14.16 at 5:01 pm

Sorry Garth but prices aren’t declining on the east side at least and houses are still selling. Interest rates are going nowhere for years and people still need to find a place to put their money.

#24 Move on VREU on 08.14.16 at 5:03 pm

I think the rejoicing of a market correction is a little early here folks. A few weeks of data, as pointed out here many times, is hardly conclusive of anything. Lets remember the temporary shock to investors of Brexit and the quick bounce back. Lets remember that its mid-summer, which seasonally is the worst time for the market.

This type of rejoicing took effect every time on this blog since 2010. Every new measure that was introduced was heralded as the end of the market – elimination of the 0/down 40 year mortgages, 5 year rate qualifications requirement, new down payment rules, new bank capitalization rules, and on and on.

Any every time, there was no impact on price appreciation – it kept going up and up.

Oh, where is VREU?

Remember, my warnings of the ‘scourge of foreign capital’ impacting prices with a domino effect throughout the mainland, Island and Interior?

Well, golly gee, I guess you finally have confirmation from an official source – the provincial government – that foreign buyers are a major driver of price increases. That drivel of 0.68% of foreign buyers in Victoria will be so outdated once they show you 2016. Regardless, communities like Burnaby and Richmond had near 20% foreign capital buying.

By the way VREU, I notice how you don’t comment on the rising price trend in Victoria and the surrounding communities – prices still going up up and up.

Rising prices throughout the province threatened re-election as housing affordability is the key issue. The BC government realized the destructive impact of foreign capital and its domino effect spreading throughout BC – destructive impact on their re-election chances that is.

But true to form, the tax will be toothless with little impact – just window dressing for a pissed off electorate. By the way, wait until after the election in May, and then watch the Liberal victors amend the legislation to reduce the tax to something less problematic for their donors – like 3%

#25 vulcan without ears on 08.14.16 at 5:04 pm

http://www.remax-quebec.com/en/house-for-sale-rive-sud-de-montreal/1125-boul-marie-victorin-boucherville-26271908.rmx

Just compare with this house on the south shore of montreal selling for less…

#26 paulo on 08.14.16 at 5:17 pm

on story of fixed term leases, if the BC government was really interested in trying to calm the Real Estate Market and preserve reasonable priced housing they would immediately legislate a end to this type of blatant abuse
and work around of the tenancy laws, such a move would do far more to protect affordable housing than the rather ill conceived and poorly timed crash tax Anybody renting should immediately dismiss any lease with such a clause
why would you rent from some opportunistic scumbag landlord you where smart enough to rent instead of entering the ponzi game , why give a dirt bag the ability to play at your expense

#27 it’s only Trump and coal (but I like it)…. on 08.14.16 at 5:21 pm

nice of you to finally post a picture of your girlfriend…

#28 Tony on 08.14.16 at 5:30 pm

Re: #11 jb on 08.14.16 at 4:11 pm

I think the chances of making money long stocks were greater just before the ’29 crash than today. The stock market by far today is the most overvalued in history.

#29 The Spectre on 08.14.16 at 5:30 pm

Differently from what the elites preach, houses in London, UK will be finally accessible to middle class again.

Same in Vancouver btw.

Globalization is a failed experiments. Go ask the Germans

#30 TS on 08.14.16 at 5:32 pm

The best part of that Vancouver listing is that a house for sale for 2.3 M has property taxes of less than $7,000 a year.

$7,000 property taxes is a $500,000 house in Ottawa.

Same with Toronto. What’s with big cities with stupid low property taxes?

#31 When Will They Raise Rates? on 08.14.16 at 5:37 pm

Based on those YVR numbers, it appears that Ross Kay was right on the money when he called the YVR top about 3 months ago. Very impressive.

#32 Freedom First on 08.14.16 at 5:37 pm

#2 & #14 Freedom First

Neither Posts are the “real” Freedom First.

And, #14 Freedom First, if you choose to call someone “scum of the earth”, do it under your own handle, not mine, a$$hole.

007
Freedom First
PHD Freedomonics

#33 Victoria Real Estate Update on 08.14.16 at 5:41 pm

# 6 Frank

More realtor BS from you.

“He (Dan Morrison) finally acknowledged… that Zolo’s data is the same MLS data from which REBGV also derives their stats.”

Do you really think Zolo would interpret the MLS data to make it look worse than it actually is?

Think about what business Zolo is in. It’s the R/E biz. Therefore they have a vested interest in keeping house prices high, just like real estate boards, realtors, mortgage brokers, etc.

Therefore, if anything, Zolo would most likely interpret the MLS data to make it look stronger than it actually is (think Vancouver’s R/E board).

An unbiased source may have interpreted the MLS data more objectively and come up with numbers even more negative than Zolo.

Realtors just don’t get stuff like this.

#34 Nero on 08.14.16 at 5:42 pm

LOL….Oh how to spin it now?
Now that threats have turned to action.
Too much ‘business as usual’ will surely lead to more
negative repercussions.
How to keep the fire burning without torching the house?….Dance on those coals VREB dream makers.

Pass me my fiddle……

#35 When Will They Raise Rates? on 08.14.16 at 5:49 pm

Ross Kay calling the Vancouver top on May 21st:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=R2Jr0Q9l90Q

#36 with love from Hillary on 08.14.16 at 5:49 pm

Oh Garth, that’s so romantic… I didn’t know Hillary sends thank you pictures for her most devoted Canadian supporters :) Thanks for sharing this private moment.

Now if only Smoking Man would also share what he got from the Donald’s wife.

#37 Context on 08.14.16 at 5:50 pm

I have no idea what all the talk was about concerning Brexit and the UK leaving. The vote taken by the people was for entertainment purposes only. This matter was never in the hands of the masses, but needs to be voted upon by the British government to go into effect.

#38 fleabitten monkey on 08.14.16 at 5:50 pm

So whose job is it to call Morrison out on the bullshit and when does a responsible BC based knowledgeable authority put this out into the mainstream? Would like to see Morrison taken to task here.

#39 Smoking Man on 08.14.16 at 5:50 pm

DELETED

#40 Freedom free on 08.14.16 at 5:54 pm

#32 Freedom First on 08.14.16 at 5:37 pm
#2 & #14 Freedom First

Neither Posts are the “real” Freedom First.

And, #14 Freedom First, if you choose to call someone “scum of the earth”, do it under your own handle, not mine, a$$hole.

007
Freedom First
PHD Freedomonics
….
Time to add all you losers to the filter. Freedom free for me.

#41 Smoking Man on 08.14.16 at 5:55 pm

#21 Shirley Valentine on 08.14.16 at 4:50 pm
The hot studly beast of an alien has started his book tour!!! This is awesome. Party on the spaceship with captain smokey babe. See you at Seneca babe. Hot t-shirt.
…..

Where have you been?

That tee shirt is a photo of a hand painted work of beauty by a fellow blog dog, it’s what she painted after reading a few chapters. She is so talented.

No book tour yet, just some more practice The book, it’s getting an edit by a biology scientist. So far so good.

#42 Non-binary gender identity. on 08.14.16 at 6:05 pm

That’s a smoking hot gilf. Whynne would ban her.

#43 dontcallmeshirley on 08.14.16 at 6:09 pm

CMHC appraisal engine still underwriting Vancouver deals without reservation. That’s what matters, not a Zolo analysis.

#44 Victoria Real Estate Update on 08.14.16 at 6:09 pm

# 24 Move on VREU

If you read Garth’s poat today you would understand that there is very little reason left to trust the way any Canadian real estate board interpret the numbers from which they derive the data that they publish. This includes Victoria’s R/E board.

You must have missed the factual chart that I posted recently, showing how detached house sales across Greater Victoria took a big hit in July, down significantly from June and approximately 35% from April (exact numbers not at my disposal right now).

I’ll post that chart again for you.

That sales of detached houses have fallen that quickly and that much during the busiest part of the season must be a major source of concern for realtors like you.

As I’ve said, house prices in Victoria will begin falling again soon.

Anyone who knows anything about real estate knows that falling prices follow falling sales.

It’s pathetic that you’re still trying to create FOMO by claiming that Chinese buyers are doing whatever you say they are to Victoria’s market. It’s old news that only 0.68% of deals in Victoria went to buyers from all of Asia and not just China. China’s share may have been as low as 0.1% or lower.

As I’ve pointed out numerous times, since 2013 approximately a third of all new mortgages in Victoria have had a debt to income ratio of at least 450% – similar to what has been happening in Vancouver and Toronto. Based on this important bubble-measuring data, Victoria’s market is as bubbly as the bubbliest in Canada.

As a realtor, this probably doesn’t make sense to you and, even if it did, you would probably ignore it and think about how you could lie and convince local buyers that they had better buy now before all of those rich Chinese get here and buy all of the local real estate.

Now 2016, realtors were quoted in the local media as saying that buyers from China had “suddenly discovered
Victoria” and were “moving the market”. That turned out to be BS just like the claims you make here on this site on a regular basis.

#45 Mark on 08.14.16 at 6:10 pm

“What are the potential effects of a Trump victory on the exchange rates?”

I’ve watched a few Trump speeches (which are mostly the same, so if you’ve watched one or two, basically you’ve watched ’em all!). A consistent theme he brings up is that China is a currency manipulator and a constant devalue. Rendering the United States “unable to compete”, obviously damaging the manufacturing industry of wherever he happens to be speaking.

He then goes on to suggest that through his brilliant skills of negotiation, he can somehow stop China from being an alleged “currency manipulator”.

I don’t find these claims to be particularly credible. However, to me, it seems that the outcome of a Trump presidency would be a significant effort in the United States to devalue the USD$ to be “competitive” with China’s alleged devaluation.

Hence, for a Trump presidency, you would probably want to be “long” devaluation hedges. Namely, industrial assets, mines and metals (precious and base). And probably ‘short’ assets which perform poorly in devaluation which in the practical sense means bonds, bubbly real estate, and stocks of companies which primarily cater to domestic consumption.

Of course, the outcome of the election is hard to predict, and a devaluation may already be baked into the cake no matter who wins, whether it be Trump or Clinton. US trade deficits are certainly at levels which are not sustainable over the long term, and I don’t see how they could avoid devaluation. I am just unclear on the mechanism of devaluation, and whether political intervention could cause it as easily as what might be implied by Trump through his claims relating to China.

#46 Victoria Real Estate Update on 08.14.16 at 6:12 pm

Correction to my previous post, in 2015, not now 2016.

#47 46 and 2 on 08.14.16 at 6:13 pm

Dan Morrison is a schill.

#48 fleabitten monkey on 08.14.16 at 6:14 pm

#16 Chddywck – are there no maximum residential rent increases mandated by the BC Govt according to the residential tenancy act? If it’s month to month after expiry how can your buddy jack it 20-30 pct per year. Or maybe it’s not month to month after expiry – curious how your bud manages this. Let me know pls.

#49 Chaddywack on 08.14.16 at 6:14 pm

@paulo 26

The reason people sign fixed term leases in Vancouver is because they know that tenants have NO negotiating power. I’ve refused a few times and the landlords didn’t care. They just say that they basically have 10-15 other people who want the unit now so they will move on to someone else who is willing to sign.

The entire Aquilini rental building downtown only does fixed term leases that expire after a year and the tenant has to move out or deal with a large rental increase. It’s just the reality of the market in Vancouver. Tenants have no bargaining power.

#50 Damifino on 08.14.16 at 6:17 pm

#17 45north

“Looks like they just lost their down payment.”
—————————-

Not really. They still have their Vancouver dream home.

#51 Entrepreneur on 08.14.16 at 6:23 pm

RL, you said it “Brexit fallout is making some people wonder why…”…that is the clue as to why “the biggest, most beneficial free trade zone and economic union” is not working because of the words “some people.”

I agree with #29 The Spectre…”Globalization is a failed experiment.” “Some people” benefit but lots are left out.

We know that the prices were declining months ago
because of Ross Kay (thumbs up) radio talk shows. We will know one way or the other in the months ahead. Will see if the 15% foreign tax do anything besides recognizing the influx.

Has anyone stepped down from the Vancouver housing mess? They should!

#52 jay on 08.14.16 at 6:23 pm

#1 Jimmy ,you’re a real inspiration to all the reader’s of this blog.You add so much to the discussion on this blog,keep up the good work!!!

#53 Michael King on 08.14.16 at 6:36 pm

Hard to believe that some commenters think the Vancouver market hasn’t turned south. The evidence is more pronounced each day.

This condo has been listed for two months. Originally 495k, price dropped this week.
http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2077955/203-2370-w-2nd-avenue-vancouver

Garth, I have a worse “piece of crap” for you. I’ve seen it in person and it is the definition of a teardown. Peeling paint, collapsing front stairs, it has it all!
http://www.berniedoyle.com/listings/mls/R2097393/vancouver-west/kitsilano/2735-w-8-avenue

#54 BobC on 08.14.16 at 6:37 pm

Sometimes I find it awfully hard to believe the stuff I read here. $2.8 MILLION for that piece of crap! I find it hard to believe anybody at any age is that stupid. If I had $100 million in my hip pocket I wouldn’t buy that. Anybody stuck with it gets what they deserve. No simpathy here.

#55 For those about to flop... on 08.14.16 at 6:45 pm

One thing I forgot to add in my post yesterday was ,when visiting the U.S. I like to pick up a pair of shoes or two at the outlets in Burlington W.A.

Selection in my size in Canada can be weak at best,although I don’t have crazy big feet.
Size 13 when I’m in a good mood ,size 14 if I want to put a bit of extra leather up someone’s backside.

Anyway,when I pulled into the car park the other morning both the Reebok and Puma outlets had closed since our last visit.

The store clerk in Coach cited the weak Canadian dollar and visitor numbers as well as the newish outlets near the Vancouver airport.

I already had my suspicions ,but was more focused on getting my wife out of the store before she become more enamoured with something more expensive than a $20 Wristlet.

Now I just need Coach to close….

M42BC

#56 mouldyinYVR on 08.14.16 at 6:53 pm

https://www.knowledge.ca/articles/2016/08/12/race-and-real-estate-how-hot-chinese-money-making-vancouver-unlivable
Brought to you by ‘Knowledge Network’………lots of the same old platitudes…….but I sure put my money on s.p.e.c.u.l.a.t.o.r.s riding that great big wave of ‘money from somewhere’…………
(and no – it’s not about to dry up, so don’t hold your breath)

#57 Fustercluck on 08.14.16 at 7:00 pm

So if sellers in Van see this as the cash out moment, would it be a logical expectation to see an activity surge (sales and/or prices) in spillover areas (Vancouver Island, BC interior)?

#58 Victoria Real Estate Update on 08.14.16 at 7:06 pm

DETACHED HOUSE SALES SLOW IN DRAMATIC FASHION DURING WHAT ARE NORMALLY THE BUSIEST MONTHS

Sales of detached houses were down 23% month-over-month across Greater Victoria.

It’s apparent this is part of a trend that began after April.

Monthly sales totals compared to April 2016:
May: down 9%
June: down 17%
July: down 36%

(source : Victoria’s R/E board)

As I’ve said many times, house prices will begin to fall again in Victoria. It’s only a matter of time. The current trend of slower sales of detached houses suggests that time may be close.

#59 Goldie on 08.14.16 at 7:08 pm

Many people who supported the brexit vote predicted that any negative trends in the British economy would be blamed on brexit by those that opposed it, regardless of the evidence.

#60 Mark on 08.14.16 at 7:10 pm

“The reason people sign fixed term leases in Vancouver is because they know that tenants have NO negotiating power. I’ve refused a few times and the landlords didn’t care. They just say that they basically have 10-15 other people who want the unit now so they will move on to someone else who is willing to sign.”

Yet rent increases in Vancouver are quite minimal and have barely kept up with inflation. Doesn’t fit with your whole narrative of renters having no negotiation power. If anything, with speculator landlords increasingly desperate to keep their units full and the mortgage payments made in this era of stagnating/falling prices, the tenants have the bargaining power.

Lots of landlords either lie as their negotiating tactic (thinking they’ll have another sucker to come around). At some point, you have to take their up-front dishonesty as a sign that they’re probably not an entity you want to rent from.

#61 Bram on 08.14.16 at 7:13 pm

#20 Marius on 08.14.16 at 4:47 pm
Teranet data is old. Zolo is current. No wonder you like it better. — Garth

I respectfully disagree.
Nothing old about Teranet data.

Read the ‘methodology’ page:
http://www.housepriceindex.ca/documents/MethodologyEN.pdf
The indices are estimated on a monthly basis

Marius is spot on: Teranet HPI is the number to follow.
For yvr jul’16 figure, more than 5000 sales pairs were used.

Bram

#62 work&tumble on 08.14.16 at 7:13 pm

Post 30 is that tax info true? Garth can you look into Property taxes across the major Cities in Canada.

#63 Porsche on 08.14.16 at 7:15 pm

TY TY TY God

EI ran out yesterday and just got confirmation for 7 weeks work up in Fort Hills with Suncor. Fly in/Fly out, 7 day rotation, start Tuesday.

A 7 day work week there is like an 80 hour bi-weekly for corporate city boy.

It’s temp telecom but I’ll take it and who knows… could lead to something more.

Fort Hills is the newest and best camp in the Oil Sands.

TY TY TY GOD

#64 Bonhomme Carnaval on 08.14.16 at 7:15 pm

@#9 GOD on 08.14.16 at 3:58 pm

I second that!

Enough already!

#65 Ft. Mac Real Estate Update (WUL) on 08.14.16 at 7:21 pm

Gyrations. A local catalyst (Ma Nature) in the middle of nowhere. Obviously this fur trading post in the Taiga is not a Canadian metropolis like Estevan, Sask. I have no idea what the destruction of 10% of the housing stock in a small city means to a real estate market nor what the stats mean. We’ll see.

Also, with small volumes, a small change in sales volume will create eye-popping % changes. Add to that mix, the foundation of a city being the price of oil.

So going back a handful of months (with a month long mandatory vacay of all 80,000 residents due to insufferable heat in May) here is what we have for sales numbers of single family detached abodes by month, year over year 2016/2015:

Jan + 45%
Feb – 9%
Mar – 64%
Apr – 60%
May – 97%
Jun – 45%
Jul – + 40%

With average SFD prices kinda being in the $600K – $740K range. I might graph it tomorrow to see what a northern roller coaster ride looks like.

FMREB

#66 Bram on 08.14.16 at 7:26 pm

Oh, and Mark…
Be a man, and call ‘salesmix’ this time too!
On the Zolo data!

Look at that Zolo graph showing the sales mix:
The share of ‘detached’ sales is dropping steadily, compared to ‘condo’ sales.

So yes, median an mean are expected to drop big time, if more condos, less houses are sold compared to the previous months.

Bram

#67 TurnerNation on 08.14.16 at 7:30 pm

Is ZOLO the new YOLO?
An anachronistic acronym.

#68 AK on 08.14.16 at 7:35 pm

#32 Freedom First on 08.14.16 at 5:37 pm
“#2 & #14 Freedom First

Neither Posts are the “real” Freedom First.

And, #14 Freedom First, if you choose to call someone “scum of the earth”, do it under your own handle, not mine, a$$hole.

007
Freedom First
PHD Freedomonics”
——————————————————-
Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

Having said that, The hot Babe above, one of your lady friends?

#69 AK on 08.14.16 at 7:38 pm

#28 Tony on 08.14.16 at 5:30 pm

“I think the chances of making money long stocks were greater just before the ’29 crash than today. The stock market by far today is the most overvalued in history.”
————————————————————
Were you around in 1929 ?

#70 southburnabygardener on 08.14.16 at 7:47 pm

Mark# 60 2016.08.14
“The reason people sign fixed term leases in Vancouver is because they know that tenants have NO negotiating power. I’ve refused a few times and the landlords didn’t care. They just say that they basically have 10-15 other people who want the unit now so they will move on to someone else who is willing to sign.”

Yet rent increases in Vancouver are quite minimal and have barely kept up with inflation. Doesn’t fit with your whole narrative of renters having no negotiation power. If anything, with speculator landlords increasingly desperate to keep their units full and the mortgage payments made in this era of stagnating/falling prices, the tenants have the bargaining power
………
Mark, speaking of someone with boots on the ground you are way off base. There are extremely few rental units out there so the landlords can and do insist on the one year lease or take the next person in line. I found the unit we will be renting through research, including the 2015.08 posting and 2015.09 rent. The current rent is 20 % higher as of 2016.09. You do have some room to negotiate if you are willing to commute 4 + hours a day. Not something that was acceptable to us.

#71 Andrew Woburn on 08.14.16 at 7:52 pm

#2 Freedom First on 08.14.16 at 3:05 pm
I look after myself with near perfection. “All” women love me and think I’m the best mating partner available on the planet. It’s not easy to be me, I’ve got barely any free time because of all these women, who also want all my money.
=========================

No doubt all this money is from the royalties on your best selling country song, “Oh Lord, it’s hard to be humble when you’re perfect in every way!”

#72 Smoking Man on 08.14.16 at 7:54 pm

Watching the Olympics, if I was single I would never date one of those female runners. Do you see the thighs on these beasts…

Can you Imagen when they have a Bi polar episode.

Or you don’t read well or follow instructions in cosmopolitan mag on how to totally please your lady.

Hell they can squize your brains out of your nostrils in one sweeping motion.

No, I’ll stick with crazy wife with normal thighs..

#73 Chaddywack on 08.14.16 at 7:55 pm

@48 fleabitten monkey

What he does is forces all his tenants to initial a box on the standard BC government lease agreement that states after one year the tenant WILL move out. After 10 or 11 months he tells them that he is willing to allow them to sign a new lease, but the price is now higher. He had a basement suite he was renting for $1,200 and he raised it to $1,450 for example.

This is legal because the tenant initially signed an agreement for a fixed term and initialled the box stating that they would move out at the end of the lease so it is a brand new lease and legally he can set whatever rent he wanted. If the tenants did not initial the box then the lease would have converted to month to month after one year and be subject to rent controls.

He basically will not even show his place to someone if they do not agree to sign the box stating they WILL move out after one year. He said that there are so many desperate tenants out there that they all agree to this without question. He told me that this is the “only way to do business because [he] has a product that everyone wants and people cannot afford to buy.”

He is a tad arrogant for sure, but he does own 3 houses bought in the last couple of years and I’m just a desperate tenant ;)

#74 You Rock Garth on 08.14.16 at 7:57 pm

Love that Zolo.ca site. Garth, you are God when it comes to this sort of thing.

Alarming Vancouver data in that in the past the fastest HPI crash was Calgary in the early 80s at 30% in 1 year. Here we have Vancouver at 20% in 1 Quarter.

Means prices are in free fall or at best, dropping rapidly. Where they will end up, who knows…50% +/- 10% drop on average looks about right at this pace. The higher the HPI, the greater/more rapid the fall…again, what I had posted recently.

What is frightening is that all HPI drops: (1) Due to Recession and (2) Continue to drop, after the original rapid price drop, for a couple of more years albeit more slowly.

Guess we are in Recession?

So, where are all the YVR RE Denial people and their posts?

“YVR RE will never go down”…I hate to say this, but dumb asses. History has just repeated itself.

Next step, underwater mortgages and hopefully not, Recession. Read Anger in the next few months at this theatre.

#75 For those about to flop... on 08.14.16 at 8:03 pm

63# Porsche…happy for you,good luck.

Also while am thinking about Alberta,one Albertan in particular did not cover himself in glory on the last night of our trip.

His small pooch was yapping at people walking by so his response was to yank on the leash so hard that the dog tumbled end over end 5 or 6 times.

His daughters were disgusted and yelled at him but he is probably lucky no one on the State Park staff seen this or there might have been a visit from their version of the SPCA.

I wanted to take a piece of rope over and do the same thing to him but I was only on my third beer and thought I should have a forth and let sleeping dogs lie so to speak.

Yeah,a small dog yapping can be annoying but no dog deserves that treatment.

If that guy is magically on this blog ,give the dog up for adoption.Someone will love it more than you in the first 5 minutes…

M42BC

#76 Smoking Man on 08.14.16 at 8:03 pm

Under the protective confession of being a bit hammered. If Wynee goes with Genderless licenses I’m legally changing my name from Smoking Man to Gigantic Shlongzenburg.

#77 Andrew Woburn on 08.14.16 at 8:15 pm

Car thieves now have the opportunity to make a modest investment in electronics and hack your key fob so they can unlock your car door after you leave the parking lot.

Volkswagen’s are a particular problem but there are lots of others.

I can’t wait for the onrushing Internet of Things.

“Car Thieves Can Unlock 100 Million Volkswagens With A Simple Wireless Hack”

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/08/14/the-misleaders/comment-page-1/#comment-465829

#78 BS on 08.14.16 at 8:15 pm

#30 TS on 08.14.16 at 5:32 pm
The best part of that Vancouver listing is that a house for sale for 2.3 M has property taxes of less than $7,000 a year.

$7,000 property taxes is a $500,000 house in Ottawa.

Same with Toronto. What’s with big cities with stupid low property taxes?

The $500K house in Ottawa is bigger and nicer than the $2.3 million house in Vancouver. Property taxes are based on the city budget. Not how much a property will sell for (or would have sold for 4 months ago). If one city is in a bubble like Vancouver it does not increase the city budget and property taxes. People in Vancouver are (were) just paying $2.3 million for a house that is worth $500K. The property taxes confirm this.

#79 Context on 08.14.16 at 8:17 pm

I just saw a posting by a realtor working in the dark. It stated that he had hundreds of condos to rent out and will guarantee one immediately. Bad credit or no job is not a problem, and you call him at his office. This shell game has no end of surprises, but here is my take. He needs someone to hand out the keys and to do some cleaning in a variety of condo buildings. OMG

#80 WUL on 08.14.16 at 8:17 pm

#63 Porsche on 08.14.16 at 7:15 pm
**********

Congrats. Welcome to the Taiga. You might learn to love it like I do.

Maybe SWL1976 will offer some helpful suggestions to ease the Fly In/Fly Out work/life balance efforts.

See you down the trail. Hope it pans out.

#81 For those about to flop... on 08.14.16 at 8:23 pm

Here is an interesting story I saw on the front page of the Seattle Times the other day.

First come,first served policy coming into effect to stop discrimination against renters.

Have a read…

M42BC

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/a-primer-on-seattles-new-first-come-first-served-renters-law/

#82 Rexx Rock on 08.14.16 at 8:23 pm

Prices may fall in Victoria in 3 years but with Vancouver and Toronto money coming you never know?Unemployment at 4.7%.Renters not needed in Victoria only home buyers,vacancy rates 0.5%.No more tent city so you’ll have to live in a van if you don’t have big bucks.

#83 BS on 08.14.16 at 8:23 pm

And, yikes, look at this graph below. Zolo calculates that the average detached house price actually peaked back during the March madness at about $1.5 million, and has lost an effective $400,000 since then, settling into the $1.1 million range.

Just speaking with a top realtor in Vancouver. According to him here are no serious buyers. A few tire kickers and that is it. Nobody is making offers.

He said if you want to sell a property today you need to list at least 20% below what you would have listed 4 months ago. Then expect an offer below asking not above. He said he expects next month that asking prices will likely have to be down another 10% to get an offer. He is advising all investor clients to exit now unless they want to hold for 10 years or more.

#84 Andrew Woburn on 08.14.16 at 8:24 pm

Steve Eisman, the person Steve Carell played in “The Big Short”, thinks the banks are now in good shape and he’s not worried.

Marc Fable … I mean, Faber, isn’t going to like this.

“We might not have to bail out the banks again, says real-life “Big Short” investor Steve Eisman”

http://www.salon.com/2016/08/13/we-might-not-have-to-bail-out-the-banks-again-says-real-life-big-short-investor-steve-eisman/

#85 Smoking Man on 08.14.16 at 8:28 pm

#78 Andrew Woburn on 08.14.16 at 8:15 pm
Car thieves now have the opportunity to make a modest investment in electronics and hack your key fob so they can unlock your car door after you leave the parking lot.

Volkswagen’s are a particular problem but there are lots of others.

I can’t wait for the onrushing Internet of Things.

“Car Thieves Can Unlock 100 Million Volkswagens With A Simple Wireless Hack”

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/08/14/the-misleaders/comment-page-1/#comment-465829
……

Its all Nikola Teslas falt, had his grandma not went on a horse and wagon parking lot date with Shlong Zinger, that failed pilot from Nectonite that could never leave it in his trousers. You would still be millking cows with candles.

Hybrids they run the show down here on earth. It’s all in my book maskariding as fiction…

Yeah I know I got maskariding wrong. Fk, how many languages do you expect a star man to know…

#86 Andrew Woburn on 08.14.16 at 8:36 pm

Dan Morrison was telling them something entirely different. It’ll be interesting to see the score.
=========================

Question for WUL. Is there any potential for a class action here?

Might not have much chance but it would definitely be a cold shower for the RE business.

#87 BS on 08.14.16 at 8:41 pm

#49 Chaddywack on 08.14.16 at 6:14 pm
@paulo 26

The reason people sign fixed term leases in Vancouver is because they know that tenants have NO negotiating power. I’ve refused a few times and the landlords didn’t care. They just say that they basically have 10-15 other people who want the unit now so they will move on to someone else who is willing to sign.

The entire Aquilini rental building downtown only does fixed term leases that expire after a year and the tenant has to move out or deal with a large rental increase. It’s just the reality of the market in Vancouver. Tenants have no bargaining power.

You have the power to negotiate any terms in a rental agreement. A friend just moved to Vancouver from abroad 3 months ago with no rental history and no job (but lots of cash). I had no problem finding them a nice 1 bedroom in Yaletown on a 1 year lease at a reasonable rent in a nice waterfront building that goes to month to month after 1 year. I actually got them to reduce the asking rent by $30 per month.

People need to learn how to negotiate.

#88 BOOM! on 08.14.16 at 8:48 pm

Wake me up when RE is selling for 20% less. Further wake me up when the market is down 20% as well.

Hi Flopper…. hope you had a great trip -except for that idiot dog owner. No excuses for people like that.

#89 Context on 08.14.16 at 8:56 pm

Those who live in a condo tower beware of the new neighbor who just moved in above you or the model type lady next door that winks at your hubby who has them coming and going. True story: A dance instructor bought a unit above a female lawyer and was holding dance classes above her. The lawyer was going crazy with the noise made on those hardwood floors and complained to management. Guess who got thrown under the bus and had to leave? The Lawyer Lady!

#90 Herb on 08.14.16 at 8:59 pm

#9 GOD,

there is always room for another idiot on the internet.

And I thought you were omniscient!

#91 NoName on 08.14.16 at 8:59 pm

#72 Smoking Man on 08.14.16 at 7:54 pm

change a channel, you are watching documentary on east germany woman olympic team doping. try watching something more recent.

https://youtu.be/ECQGRnaKIWg

#92 Smoking Man on 08.14.16 at 9:00 pm

I do it for your children. It’s me vs the council back on Nictonite. The lies I got to them to protect you unless adults. They want your spices erased from time. Lucky for you I fell in love with a mental earthling. I’m doing I can to save humanity..

You all think David woke up one day with this song in his head… Ha.. UCC bitches..

https://youtu.be/RpLw8VW-R7I

#93 NoName on 08.14.16 at 9:06 pm

is it smoky or spuky?
https://youtu.be/caRmuO_odYQ

#94 Porsche on 08.14.16 at 9:07 pm

#76 #81

Thanks… it’s depressing looking and applying for jobs every day. Now I know what they mean when they say people give up looking… how many EI’s are finished and not counted in the stats.

#95 Self Directed on 08.14.16 at 9:10 pm

REALTORS routinely stop traffic to retrieve their Open House signage.

Today, a realtor in front of me got out at the stop sign, pops the trunk, casually walks over and folds up her sign… re-arranges some junk in her trunk. Then she turns to me with this look, “OK! I’m ready to go now” and gives me a thumbs up. LADY! GET OFF THE ROAD!!!

Attn all Realtors. This practice is effing rude! Park your car somewhere and walk over to get your stupid signage. The walk would do most of you some good.

In general, I hate it when anyone thinks their time is more valuable than anyone else.

#96 fleabitten monkey on 08.14.16 at 9:10 pm

#83 Rexx Rock – I’m not prepared to make a call either way on prices in Vic. However, if the market in Vancouver jams up and falls you will have less capital flight from Vancouver. Furthermore, do you honestly think that the BC Govt won’t slap the new transfer tax on Vic if data starts to indicate spillover of foreign buyers and concurrent spikes in prices as have been seen over the past year in the Vic market? These factors, if they happen, will of course impact Vic prices.

#97 april on 08.14.16 at 9:21 pm

#96 Right on!

#98 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 08.14.16 at 9:23 pm

Can’t wait until zolo reports RE price declines for YYZ. They need to be woken up from their madness

#99 Mark on 08.14.16 at 9:25 pm

Bram,

The concept of the sales mix being highly influential in the difference between “house prices” and Realtors’ reported average transactions doesn’t break itself down into categories such as SFH, Condo, Townhouse, etc. It refers mostly to the concept of certain statistical percentiles of the market being more dominant today, than they were in the past.

For instance, in the market up to the CMHC changes in 2013, the market followed a certain distribution of sales. In the post-2013 market, the distribution of sales shifted significantly towards the higher end of the market, with the lower end substantially truncated on account of the first time buyers being largely absent. Since there’s been no appreciation in actual individual house prices, the increase to the Realtor-reported ‘average’ is on account of this shifted statistical distribution largely caused by the changes at the CMHC made in Budget 2013.

This is the conclusion Ross Kay came to in his research (and he appears to have done a decent job of predicting the non-sales-mix adjusted peak which occurred more recently). And I came to it independently as well, using far less data. Which is why most of the claims of rising prices in Vancouver are rather suspect and are not supported anecdotally. Similar sorts of hijinks were seen in California (and even the USA more broadly in locations where the sales mix *could* shift) circa 2005-2008. If you watch “The Big Short”, the scene in which the Goldman Sachs representative claims house prices were still solid, yet “on the ground” the situation was quite different is illustrative of how it played out in real life. Reality quickly re-asserted itself after the non-sales-mix-adjusted peak, and the rest is history as the market reaction was swift and relentless.

#100 Shirley valentine on 08.14.16 at 9:25 pm

#41 Smoking Man on 08.14.16 at 5:55 pm
#21 Shirley Valentine on 08.14.16 at 4:50 pm
The hot studly beast of an alien has started his book tour!!! This is awesome. Party on the spaceship with captain smokey babe. See you at Seneca babe. Hot t-shirt.
…..

Where have you been?

That tee shirt is a photo of a hand painted work of beauty by a fellow blog dog, it’s what she painted after reading a few chapters. She is so talented.

No book tour yet, just some more practice The book, it’s getting an edit by a biology scientist. So far so good.
Xoxoxoxo

Summertime in the city babe. Hot times. Can’t read this blog all the time. Wow some need to find a life!! Keep teaching them how to live smokey babe. Party planet.

An editor wow!! Amazing picture. They eill rip it off you in the casino. Great marketing. Party on stud

#101 moses7171 on 08.14.16 at 9:26 pm

i’m looking to move to GVA next summer so when is a projected “safe” time to buy there?

#102 WUL on 08.14.16 at 9:44 pm

#87 Andrew Woburn on 08.14.16 at 8:36 pm

Question for WUL. Is there any potential for a class action here?

Might not have much chance but it would definitely be a cold shower for the RE business.
***************************

Re: The Prospects Of Success In The Case Of:

Millenials in Vancouver v. GVREB

(BCSC)

I opine that you are correct in stating that “litigation chill” could result in a sizable settlement but it is not a case I would try.

Dunno much about class action suits but it seems to me you only need one Plaintiff and then seek out other Plaintiffs to join the class.

But, on a contingent fee basis of, say 30%, it could make hundreds of beleaguered Kits lawyers some serious loot.

And, it has been a long time since I have looked at what it takes to bring home a successful suit for the tort of deceit.

The demand letter would be fun to write. I will do it for $500 plus disbursements. The concluding sentence would be “Govern yourself like an accordion, ya bastards.”

Have your gal call my gal after 9:30 tomorrow.

And quit asking me questions when I am on the golf course (that costs extra).

#103 DON on 08.14.16 at 9:46 pm

Was camping this weekend near the just outside Campbell River, BC – once a busy resource town.

On the drive from Campbell to Saratoga speedway approx 15km saw 79 for sale signs – resembled election signs.

Going from urban to rural this is what I saw.

Of the 79 signs
20 were for condos in Campbell river across from the ocean – unobstructed view – approx 5 sold

At least 9 empty lots right across from ocean for commercial – same as last year.

Approx 5 rural properties on ocean or across with Sol signs.

Larger rural estates nice 5-10 acre hobby farms – 5 with new price signs.

Tourism – quite for a Saturday – small hotels with vacancy signs big difference from last year.

Just maybe buying a house is going out of style and backpacking the world is back in – disgust with current house prices could be setting in.

#104 Mrs Hubris on 08.14.16 at 9:49 pm

In support of VREU and inductive reasoning (otherwise known as, thinking for yourself).

How exactly will we know if there is a correction? There is barely a Canadian newspaper worthy of the name as mass media parrot releases from PR departments, with the real estate cartel at the top of this list. I recently read the Alberta economy was really doing very well with prime evidence supplied by Sotheby’s – of course.

So, we can only judge by Garth and what we see. Here in Victoria we have been receiving listings and watching the market for a good number of years. We invest, PROFIT and are not dim. So this is what we see:

With total current received listings standing at roughly 100, in this ‘hot market’ we have been watching regular re-lists as properties are removed from and re-appear on the market as new listings. New realtors also often appear at the same time, indicating prior failure to sell.

Current Sales on our list now stand at: 5 in progress. Note here that I tell the truth. Price reductions currently represent about 11% of the list. So… apply ‘inductive reasoning’. If half of China and half of Vancouver were really here (thank you yet again, Times Colonist) would our list really look like this?

Every time I drive home (takes about 40 minutes) I count the SOLD signs and houses for sale on diverse routes. SOLD signs are left up for long periods so I get a chance to check my figures! In the past two months, For Sale signs outnumber SOLD signs by an average multiple of 5-7. So , apply inductive reasoning. Is FOMO justified? If there are 5-7 times as many houses for sale as are sold, and everyone is desperate to buy, why is every one of these houses not SOLD?

Thinking for myself, the only element of mass-media ‘drain-washing’ I agree with is that listings on the whole are lower. They used to pop up in Victoria like fields of lollipops every spring but this year have definitely been down. Friends and neighbors tell me they will not list for fear of being unable to buy back in when they sell.

So, inductive reasoning: VREU is right.

VREB is about marketing not truth and the true state of the Victoria housing market will continue to be concealed from us. However, we could always think for themselves.

#105 For those about flop... on 08.14.16 at 9:51 pm

#89 BOOM! on 08.14.16 at 8:48 pm
Wake me up when RE is selling for 20% less. Further wake me up when the market is down 20% as well.

Hi Flopper…. hope you had a great trip -except for that idiot dog owner. No excuses for people like that.

////////////////////////////////////

Boom, I’ve been doing some homework and I was surprised to see some people were worried about me.
Especially Freedom First ,he can get a bit crazy when he takes too much Viagra but gets no action.

Thanks to the people that asked where I was.
Garth is the main meal and I am the garnish that you either chew on for a while or kick to the side.

I got some great cheese from Safeway so I checked out where it was from and it turned out it was from your neck of the woods.

The trip was not textbook but we made it work.

The boss has been preaching balance ,it turns out my wife doesn’t have any…

M42BC

#106 Mr. Frugal on 08.14.16 at 9:54 pm

Consequences of Trumpism.
_____________________________

Ever heard of the Reagan bull market??? Seriously what a load of crap! And to think that this is the “smart money” talking. Sure glad I’m not paying 1% of assets annually for this kind of advice.

If Trump wins, and I think he will, the S&P 500 will sell off as the Wall Street elites go into vapour lock. That will be an excellent BUYING OPPORTUNITY. Kind of like the last time Garth told us the world was ending (i.e. Brexit).

#107 Alberta Ed on 08.14.16 at 9:59 pm

Somebody tell the MSM! Uh, no, wait… they’re all in Rio. Too hard, anyway.

#108 Joy on 08.14.16 at 10:03 pm

So much joy about the market turning down on RE in Vancouver.

So much tears to come when TSX, Nasdac, etc. will do the same.

#109 Red Deer Rob (Now in Toronto) on 08.14.16 at 10:21 pm

@72 Smoking Man

It’s called death by snu snu.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCdrUW–Jic

#110 Smoking Man on 08.14.16 at 10:22 pm

hammered beyond a star man

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v–IqqusnNQ

#111 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 08.14.16 at 10:25 pm

Mark, speaking of someone with boots on the ground you are way off base.

U must b new here. WalMark has always been way off base cuz he makes stuff up. Inflation/deflation, CAD/USD, gold/miners, YYZ real estate, CDN import/export, etc … All off base. He’s just a poster who was banned from other forums so he posts his entertainment here

Oh and shillary wins in a landslide. It won’t even be close. And trump goes back to reality tv and gets uber massive ratings

Money in the bank

#112 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 08.14.16 at 10:28 pm

#100 Mark on 08.14.16 at 9:25 pm

No.

Google search shows YYZ prices increasing in spite of sales mix.

Sorry. Thanks for playing

#113 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 08.14.16 at 10:29 pm

Oh and when shillary beats trump in a landslide congress doesn’t let her do anything and the US muddles along but it’s ok because the US economy has recovered and will carry the next POTUS to inadvertent glory

#114 Context on 08.14.16 at 10:29 pm

#105 Mrs. Hubris :- The official number of listings in Victoria is bogus as there are hundreds of non official listings.

#115 Smoking Man on 08.14.16 at 10:35 pm

LEAVING THE LEFT

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v–IqqusnNQ

#116 Smoking Man on 08.14.16 at 10:43 pm

HOW THE LEFTY DEAL FEAL WIYH SMOKING MEN

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9Dg-g7t2l4

#117 meslippery on 08.14.16 at 10:44 pm

As predicted, the Brexit fallout is making some people wonder why they ever voted the country out of the biggest, most beneficial free trade zone and economic union on the planet.
——————————
Could be they are tired of jobs going to cheaper free
trade zones leaving us with out good paying jobs.

#118 acdel on 08.14.16 at 10:58 pm

#30 TS
The best part of that Vancouver listing is that a house for sale for 2.3 M has property taxes of less than $7,000 a year.

$7,000 property taxes is a $500,000 house in Ottawa.

Same with Toronto. What’s with big cities with stupid low property taxes?

===============================

Hit the nail in the head with your post.
Want to keep real-estate at a reasonable level do what Ottawa is doing. Want a higher value property then be prepared to pay for it, Van is a lost cause “NOW”, great for those who ignored the the nay Sayers from ten years up until six months back; made a crap load of bucks if you were smart enough. Now, you are nuts to get into that mess.

#119 45north on 08.14.16 at 11:41 pm

move on VREU: I think the rejoicing of a market correction is a little early here folks. A few weeks of data, as pointed out here many times, is hardly conclusive of anything.

there are no fundamentals! price to income is 20! In this environment, a market correction is significant.

Rising prices throughout the province threatened re-election as housing affordability is the key issue.

the province wants to make housing more affordable without making it cheaper! In fact the province wants to make housing more affordable while making it more expensive!

#120 YVR Downfall on 08.14.16 at 11:55 pm

Detached has fallen from $1.5 million to $1.1 Million in Vancouver. Is now the time to buy?

But seems like prices are the highest ever when I look at comparable soles in my neighbourhood.

Where are these $400,000 discounts? Confused.

#121 jane 24 on 08.15.16 at 12:22 am

Still delighted that I voted out of the EU. If London prices go down then even better to get my last kid on the property ladder so a double win. Poke in the eye for Brussels unelected bureaucrats too. I was in the RE business for a decade and I know that it is buy low/sell low or buy high/sell high. So you never really lose with RE in buying a trade-up house. You do have to live somewhere.

Do wish I had more in my euro holiday account through at the rate from 6 months ago! I just was too busy to pay enough attention to that one. But personal stock accounts are much higher since as I bet against the pound with those. Yet again you can’t win everything in life.

#122 I like cookies on 08.15.16 at 12:29 am

Garth, I suspect that if you banned Smoking Man, Freedom First, Mark and Flop, not only would there be half as many comments as now, but the quality of the discourse would greatly improve. Not to mention your blood pressure!

#123 Doug t on 08.15.16 at 1:04 am

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz and zzzzzzzzzzzz

#124 Jim on 08.15.16 at 1:34 am

Starting to look more and more like Trump will be the wild card in this. If Trump is elected the Banking Establishment cabal may clam up lending just out of spite.

#125 Sextina Aquafina on 08.15.16 at 1:51 am

Problem with YYJ is that there is no land available for development, so a lot of projects are teardowns or subdivion applications. This of course has significant costs, which pushes prices up to 1.2mil at least. I work in design and development and deal with this everyday, I would say that nearly half our work is exactly that. You look at the MLS right now and you will see only two lots for sale under $400k between Victoria, Saanich, Oak Bay, Central Saanich, North Saanich and Sidney. Even working professionals making 100k each have a hard time financing a mortgage that’s near 1mil, and frankly, there’s not many of those around in Victoria that haven’t bought in yet. I spent a good amount of time talking to friends (couples) about their finances and house prices. Here’s the deal, they are all educated professionals, we all make well above the average household income in Victoria (86k), but guess what, none of them can make ends meet. They are either in debt consolidation mode (credit card debt), living paycheck to paycheck, renting while slowly being pushed further away from home ownership, or getting by and paying down some debt without saving for a rainy day. Here I am renting and feeling like I am in the best position with money in the bank, TFSA loaded, and no debt. The reality is, we are hitting a point of saturation where there is only so many people available that can afford housing. A lot of millennials and Gen Y’rs just have no interest in home ownership. And frankly, we are going to see some major brain drain if prices don’t normalize over the next couple years.

So, given all of this information, I got into a chat with my parents about the cost of housing to see what they thought. They said that it is a little out of control, and can see that people struggle, however, they struggled as well when they bought their house in the 90’s. I asked them, why was it hard in the 90’s, what were you guys going through? Their reply, “we were doubling our mortgage payments every month…” FML.

Sometimes this shit just needs to blow up, man.

#126 And #6 Frank you know sell prices how? on 08.15.16 at 2:03 am

Unless you are a Realtor with access to Sell Prices, how could you possibly say your data differs to that of Zolo?

Statistically, you need a sample size of at least 30 for your data to be, at the very least, statistically relevant. Do you have this?

I’ll believe Zolo with real time MLS information over you and day, especially if you are a Realtor…their database of information (MLS) is a smidge bigger than yours, to say the least.

#127 canuck on 08.15.16 at 2:04 am

#53 Michael King

That crappy house you linked to has also been reduced by 10%. It was $2.5M just a week ago.

#128 Why #18 Brian Ripley you are off? on 08.15.16 at 2:13 am

Besides creating analysis/paralysis charts, to answer your question (I don’t see a big change in attitude about real estate “value” yet) is simple:

Your database is either dated, inaccurate, biased and/or could not pass a Covariance Test even if its little Bayesian life depended on it.

Or more simply yet, your indicators are not that at all.

Half the Economists say one thing, the other half say the exact opposite and all have predicted the last 9 out of 6 recessions. Not exactly a stellar bunch in the predictions department; however, excellent at explaining what happened.

“If I had a can opener.”

#129 bdwy sktrn on 08.15.16 at 2:22 am

#79 BS on 08.14.16 at 8:15 pm
#30 TS on 08.14.16 at 5:32 pm

$7,000 property taxes is a $500,000 house in Ottawa.
Property taxes are based on the city budget. Not how much a property will sell for (or would have sold for 4 months ago). If one city is in a bubble like Vancouver it does not increase the city budget and property taxes. People in Vancouver are (were) just paying $2.3 million for a house that is worth $500K. The property taxes confirm this.
——————-
you may want to check the above for glaring contradictions.

i expext better from you.

#130 bdwy sktrn on 08.15.16 at 2:23 am

#80 Context on 08.14.16 at 8:17 pm
I just saw a posting by a realtor working in the dark.
————————-
post the link or it’s just bullshit you made up.

#131 Tony on 08.15.16 at 2:25 am

Re: #69 AK on 08.14.16 at 7:38 pm

No, but the market indexes were much less overvalued just before the ’29 crash than the market indexes are today.

#132 Re: Minsky Moment? on 08.15.16 at 2:26 am

I posted about this recently. Well, here we are with Garth’s info. alluding to speculators bailing and an asset bubble deflating in YVR RE.

What is troubling is that such rapid price declines have always occurred in a Recession. If so, we are in for a very rough ride…not only YVR RE.

Next month’s GDP and Labour Force Survey data will point to the direction we are: if on the downslope of that Minsky Moment, post bubble bursting.

Thus far, does not look good with 13,200 jobs being created in all of 2016 (a sham number when you factor in that many of these are the “self employed” which are counted as full time employment) and that cumulatively, GDP in all of 2016 is -0.2%.

Here’s hoping for a bounce back; otherwise, well…you know.

#133 bdwy sktrn on 08.15.16 at 2:35 am

#96 Self Directed on 08.14.16 at 9:10 pm
Today, a realtor in front of me got out at the stop sign, pops the trunk, …..LADY! GET OFF THE ROAD!!!

In general, I hate it when anyone thinks their time is more valuable than anyone else.
——————————-
for the realtor or anyone else just push in the center of the steering wheel , it will make a beeping sound.

hold firmly until the way forward is clear.

no hate dude. just love, and the horn when needed.

#134 bdwy sktrn on 08.15.16 at 2:57 am

#97 fleabitten monkey on 08.14.16 at 9:10 pm
#83 Rexx Rock – I’m not prepared to make a call either way on prices in Vic. However, if the market in Vancouver jams up and falls you will have less capital flight from Vancouver.
————————————
regardless of which way prices in van move , lower sales volume means less flight of 604lotto winners to vic/suncoast/interior. volumes are taking a well deserved break right now – so fewer lower mainland expats coming your way for now.

fear not, after a brief pause land prices near the core/skytrains/beaches/ubc will go up another 50% as densification is in it’s infancy.

nobody here really wants to go anywhere else so land keeps getting more expensive.

#135 Arshes on 08.15.16 at 3:31 am

I jusrt checked my city edmonton, and holy crap for every 1 place sold there is 100 in inventory. THATS BRUTAL! A million times worse than Vancouver!

#136 Shane on 08.15.16 at 4:09 am

Prices are the same for houses.

Sales mix of sold has changed. Way less high end detached selling so average price has gone down. But a $1 million dollar home is still $1 million.

#137 Millennials with brains... on 08.15.16 at 6:10 am

There is hope for the moisters after all.

I’d adopt these 2 if I could (Article Title: “How a 30-something couple got rich and retired by not joining home ownership ‘cult'”):

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/house-investment-wealth-1.3716641

Maybe you’re actually getting thru to the moisters Garth.

#138 Context on 08.15.16 at 7:39 am

#131 bdwy sktrn :- I will gladly send you a link after you give me the secret code word. Not all are worthy enough to enter into the parallel universe of condos.

#139 TurnerNation on 08.15.16 at 7:58 am

Fact is asks anyone and 8 or 9 out of 10 people will say they know nothing about the “stock market” and by extension, investing.

One is “safe” market other is “risky – I know someone who bought this penny stock…”

Ergo 90% of people are buying real estate and “investment condos”. Toronto/GTA has become a dumping ground , with hasty erections and false promises (sounds like my Saturday night too…)

Uppa up. Government loves passive investors and land transfer taxes.

#140 Herb on 08.15.16 at 7:59 am

#119 acdel,

I can suggest an answer to your puzzle: compare the tax structure of small and a large cities.

Each city sets the tax rate that is applied to each property class, such as residential, commercial, institutional etc. The rates for other property classes are set as multiples of the residential property tax rate.

Some years ago I dove into the tax rates of the City of Ottawa, because our residential property taxes seemed to be the highest in Canada. I discovered that the commercial rate in Ottawa was 1.5 x the residential rate, while Toronto, for instance, had set its commercial rate at 6 x the residential rate. (Since there has been no major change in the residential property tax difference between these two cities, I assume that there has been no major difference in the tax structure.)

The reason for such differences is another matter. Smaller cities may try to encourage business to come or stay through lower taxes, individual home owners are less likely to read property tax acts and bylaws and hence not be alive to such differences, and business in smaller cities may find it worthwhile to cultivate friends in the municipal administration.

One possible reason I would reject: there may be more residential rate payers in a large city, but building and maintaining the infrastructure for them is much more expensive, as Toronto City Hall knows but can’t face.

#141 Herb on 08.15.16 at 8:06 am

#130 bdwy sktrn,

you may wish to read your provincial assessment and municipal acts to relieve your painful ignorance.

Of course I would not expect better from you.

#142 Herb on 08.15.16 at 8:08 am

Now look what you’ve done Garth, FIRECracker and Co. have gone mainstream!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/house-investment-wealth-1.3716641

#143 FIRECracker on 08.15.16 at 8:34 am

Yeah, the barking of the Blog Dogs was too loud for the MSM to ignore.

#144 LL on 08.15.16 at 9:24 am

From yesterday:

“The biggest financial myth around (other than ‘gold is money’)”.

Thomas Jefferson wrote a letter to Edward Carrington in 1788 and contrary to you says:

” Paper is poverty..it is only the ghost of money and not money itself”.

So if paper is not money, if gold is not money, maybe we should use Bitcoin!!!

#145 IHCTD9 on 08.15.16 at 9:52 am

#137 Shane on 08.15.16 at 4:09 am
Prices are the same for houses.

Sales mix of sold has changed. Way less high end detached selling so average price has gone down. But a $1 million dollar home is still $1 million.
________________________________________

A 1 million dollar home has always been 1million dollars – and always will be.

It’s what you’re getting for that money that is changing right now, you’re going to be getting more and more house for that Mil going forward from here.

PS, there is probably 10,000 houses under a million for every 5+ million mansion nation wide. Big mansions sitting would barely move the average, especially if inventories are rising due to a bad economy – rich folks don’t have to sell – regular working stiffs do.

#146 bdwy sktrn on 08.15.16 at 9:55 am

#121 YVR Downfall on 08.14.16 at 11:55 pm
Detached has fallen from $1.5 million to $1.1 Million in Vancouver. Is now the time to buy?

But seems like prices are the highest ever when I look at comparable soles in my neighbourhood.
—————————————————–
same here.

Where are these $400,000 discounts? Confused.
————————————————–
only in my dreams.

#147 Steerage wisdom on 08.15.16 at 9:55 am

#144 FIRECracker on 08.15.16 at 8:34 am
Yeah, the barking of the Blog Dogs was too loud for the MSM to ignore.

..
Jeez. You don’t actually still read this pathetic blog after you found financial nirvana. And the article should have properly credited your success to wisdom from the steerage section. Without the blog dogs you would still be a wage slave.

#148 bdwy sktrn on 08.15.16 at 10:01 am

if you banned Smoking Man, Freedom First, Mark and Flop
———————-
one of these things is not like the others!

flop is about friendly banter and humor.

other 3 are self aggrandizing bullshoot with nothing much to offer (excepts smokeys calls on the market)

#149 torontorocks on 08.15.16 at 10:28 am

so on the one hand, limited supply is driving up the prices. but that’s probably b/c no-one wants to sell b/c they couldn’t afford their own house (which is what I’m assuming they’d have to buy). so is it buy now or be priced out forever.
but more importantly, this blog was always saying there was no such thing as HAM or poo-poo’ed at the idea that CHinese nationals were squirreling away their funds here (and I get the definition of Canadian could mean a guy who’s got his papers no-matter what, including through economic means – most people think Canadians mean those who derive their income from a job here and are trying to set up a home here) then how come the head tax made such an impact on real estate if it weren’t such an issue to begin with?

#150 IHCTD9 on 08.15.16 at 10:28 am

#143 Herb on 08.15.16 at 8:08 am
Now look what you’ve done Garth, FIRECracker and Co. have gone mainstream!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/house-investment-wealth-1.3716641
_________________________________________

I’m starting to get the feeling that the CBC knows what’s coming with big city RE. They had to know FC+W would be tearing RE ownership a new one if they did an article on them.

If they do decide to eventually buy out here in the sticks, they’ll be part of a steady trickle of GTA’ers getting out of the big city who are not retiring, but have actually found jobs in the area and have moved here permanently.

I am told by folks who work with a few of these couples that the reasons for moving are many – but not the least of them was the RE insanity in Toronto.

#151 FIRECracker on 08.15.16 at 10:29 am

#148 Steerage wisdom on 08.15.16 at 9:55 am
Jeez. You don’t actually still read this pathetic blog after you found financial nirvana.

=====================================

Of course I do. Nothing energizes me more than watching the Blog Dogs tear into something. And judging by your “welcome” for Ryan & Doug, you dogs are as hungry as ever :)

#152 bdy sktn on 08.15.16 at 10:32 am

#142 Herb 
—————
Knowing you commies can’t see logic I’ll simplify for you.
….
1.Property taxes are based on… Not how much a property will sell for
2. house that is worth $500K. The property taxes confirm this

When that 2.3 mil house doubles taxes will fall by half again(as a percentage )

#153 Herb on 08.15.16 at 10:43 am

#144 FIRECracker,

the barking of the blog dogs was hallow, as is often the case.

I took an interest in your case when you surfaced here, because I too have had a financial adviser for five years, he has not made me rich, and I wondered how yours did it.

It took a while to tease the numbers out of your blog. You started off with in 2012 the $507,150 you and your mate had saved, added another $386,264 of savings from earned income over three years, and earned $125,000 return over that time on your investments.

So of your $1,108,414 at the end of 2014, you had contributed $893,414 yourself, and your financial adviser had brought in $125,000. On that basis, I did not fire my FA because his returns were close to yours.

You have shown that the way to riches is to earn lots and spend little, and I congratulate you. Sadly, I’m a little shy of being a millionaire because I keep spending money on adventure and family.

#154 Bram on 08.15.16 at 10:44 am

#121 YVR Downfall on 08.14.16 at 11:55 pm
Where are these $400,000 discounts? Confused.

Exactly!
No discount at this moment, says Teranet HPI.

It will definitely come, but not this year.

The Zolo’s -14.4% this month is misleading.
So the article’s title is more apt for Zolo’s figure than Garth’s intended target.

The reason for the weird -14.4% number this month, is that Zolo’s average price is for all types: houses, townhouses, condominia.

The last two months, the nr of house-sales dropped harder than nr of condo sales.
See Zolo’s site where they show you the break-down of home types, over time.

So yeah, of course the average price (over all home types) is down hard this month.

If it is of any consolation: the prices will drop, by a lot.
But it can take a very long time.
But if you wait long enough (century or more), house prices follow inflation to the decimal.

Like Garth’s blog co-author said this week: prices will drop when mortgage rates go up.
Until then, not so much: someone posted a graph of Hong Kong house prices, which showed no reaction to Hong Kong’s introduction of foreign owner tax.

Bram

#155 A Canadian Abroad on 08.15.16 at 10:57 am

Some Financial Advice:

Sell into greed, buy into fear. The majority of investors will buy at the top and sell at the bottom!

That is true of Bre-X, Enron, Nortel the same as it is true for Van RE or TO RE.

Selling your RE now (downsize or rent) while the prices are just starting to go down is better than when it’s 10%, 20% or even 40% down. NO ONE EVER GOT HURT making a profit.

#156 IHCTD9 on 08.15.16 at 11:00 am

#154 Herb on 08.15.16 at 10:43 am

You have shown that the way to riches is to earn lots and spend little, and I congratulate you. Sadly, I’m a little shy of being a millionaire because I keep spending money on adventure and family.
__________________________________________

I had to have a closer look at FC+W’s results after their first vist here as well, and came to the same conclusion.

While the gains on the portfolio were fine, the heavy lifting was indeed dual incomes of decent quality combined with boatloads of hours worked and big savings (due to no expenses ie house, kids, debt etc).

I think FC+W will be ok as long as they are content with being nomadic travelers, and they keep living cheaply. If home ownership and kids are in the future, they better get on it quick, and resign themselves to one of them going back to work again (not the end of the world either).

#157 Neil Armstrong on 08.15.16 at 11:02 am

#78 Andrew Woburn… on the bright side… VWs are ugly, smelly, and loud, the more of them off the streets, the better.

#96 Self Directed… I love it when lady realtors stop in front of me and re-arrange junk in their trunk:)

Daily Dose of Disruption: Solar panel costs shrinking rapidly and BNN spins it like it’s a bad thing. Why can’t they stop lying? Watch the host stumble and try to correct himself in the opening…ha!

http://www.bnn.ca/it-s-not-just-oil-canada-s-potash-industry-is-going-through-its-own-bust-1.546742

#158 oncebitten on 08.15.16 at 11:16 am

There is another blogger, mr.moneymoustache, that is doing what FIREcracker and Wanderer are doing in a slightly different way. He and his wife work part-time at jobs they like, and live frugally. They are Canadian ex-pats living in the states. One child AND homeowners. He’s been mentioned here before by other bloggers, just wanted to point out that there are different paths to the same end, DEBT FREE and doing what you want.

#159 oncebitten on 08.15.16 at 11:17 am

meant to say mentioned by other dogs

#160 Balmuto on 08.15.16 at 11:25 am

Well this same Zolo shows Edmonton house prices have increased 65.2% year-over-year. Just sayin’

https://www.zolo.ca/edmonton-real-estate/trends

#161 DisgustMadeMePost on 08.15.16 at 11:27 am

One poster earlier asked where the discounts were…

Well here’s one …down 300,000… Of course it’s only moved one step so far to the ridiculous.

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/160-w-39-avenue

#162 Freedom First on 08.15.16 at 11:32 am

#149 bdwy sktrn on 08.15.16 at 10:01 am

if you banned Smoking Man, Freedom First, Mark and Flop
———————-
one of these things is not like the others!

flop is about friendly banter and humor.

other 3 are self aggrandizing bullshoot with nothing much to offer (excepts smokeys calls on the market)

FF007

How dare you lump me in with those other losers! I am the greatest man alive and women can’t wait to get their hands on me in spite of me being in my early 70’s.

#163 ulsterman on 08.15.16 at 11:38 am

Mark, you write well but i just don’t understand your perspectives that house prices have been stagnant or falling for several years and rents have been flat or declining.

I’m a renter and all the evidence points to significant price rises. My MIL rents 70 suites in the Granville & Broadway to Granville & 14th strip. All heritage with no dishwashers or laundry. One beds that 2-3 years ago rented for 1050 now go for 1300++. She tells me at every showing 20+ groups show up and THEY are telling her it’s tough finding a spot. She’s as honest as they come and has no reason to lie. They also have a place on Main and 8th and she says 30+ show up anytime a suite becomes free.

#164 For those about to flop... on 08.15.16 at 11:53 am

I like cookies …on 08.15.16 at 12:29 am
Garth, I suspect that if you banned Smoking Man, Freedom First, Mark and Flop, not only would there be half as many comments as now, but the quality of the discourse would greatly improve. Not to mention your blood pressure

#149 bdwy sktrn on 08.15.16 at 10:01 am
if you banned Smoking Man, Freedom First, Mark and Flop
———————-
one of these things is not like the others!

flop is about friendly banter and humor.

other 3 are self aggrandizing bullshoot with nothing much to offer (excepts smokeys calls on the market)

////////////////////////////////////
/ Not real sure why you want me banned?

I did a few posts last night catching up with people and relaying my observations of the last fortnight.

I don’t expect everyone to like me but I make the effort to write an original post each time and as Bdwy Skrtn pointed out most of the time I am trying to put a smile on people’s faces ,not fight with anyone.

As for lowering Garth’s blood pressure we don’t agree on some things but when we don’t I make my point once and move on and each night I spend 15 to 30 minutes to find him 3 or 4 humorous photos like the one above for him to choose from depending on the nature of the post.

I do this to thank him for his efforts and to free up some of his time,also once again to put a smile on his face.

You say you like cookies,maybe you should put something in the mixture and relax….

#165 Spiltbongwater on 08.15.16 at 12:01 pm

Zolo shows house in my area as DOM 55 days. This house has price lowered 2 times and new lusting for both price drops. Think the Realtors like Zolo as it just throws up their same lies.

#166 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 08.15.16 at 12:28 pm

Mark, you write well but i just don’t understand your perspectives that house prices have been stagnant or falling for several years and rents have been flat or declining

He masks his incorrect commentary with his writings. Don’t worry. Nobody understands what he’s talking about lol

#167 Context on 08.15.16 at 12:40 pm

New way to receive messages from the underworld about a property in Toronto, as your given a toll free number and enter a digit code for the recording. There is a new website up about home bank inventory for sale in Toronto which will check out later. Is this a bank website flipping condos out to save the broker commissions? Or is it someone fronting for them as will see later.

#168 Noel on 08.15.16 at 12:57 pm

#30 TS on 08.14.16 at 5:32 pm
The best part of that Vancouver listing is that a house for sale for 2.3 M has property taxes of less than $7,000 a year.

$7,000 property taxes is a $500,000 house in Ottawa.

Same with Toronto. What’s with big cities with stupid low property taxes?
____________________________

The fixed costs of running a city are spread out over a bigger group of people the larger the city is. Ie, the larger the property tax base the lower the amount the individual household has to pay.

Here’s the math: https://www.mpac.ca/

#169 Bram on 08.15.16 at 1:14 pm

#153 bdy sktn on 08.15.16 at 10:32 am

That goes for appreciating properties in the same city, yes.
I think the OP was comparing cities.

So if you move from a low-tax city to a high-tax city, you will feel it, provided the assessment is not significantly lower for the new house.

Bram

#170 april on 08.15.16 at 1:31 pm

#121 – Of course it’s not the “time to buy”. Once prices start to decline you wait it out for further declines and don’t listen to realtors who’ll tell you it’s not going to fall any further. For obvious reasons they don’t want a slow down.

#171 IHCTD9 on 08.15.16 at 1:37 pm

#165 For those about to flop… on 08.15.16 at 11:53

Not real sure why you want me banned?

____________________________________________

Don’t worry flop – you’re good by me! :)

#172 Nemesis on 08.15.16 at 1:50 pm

#TheEmperorIsNotAmused,Or… #NoMoreCherriesForYou!…

[G&M] – Vancouver’s real estate tax sparks backlash from Chinese buyers

…”Even the Chinese consul-general in Vancouver, Liu Fei, has publicly criticized the tax for being ineffective – building high-rises would be better, she suggested – and the B.C. government for acting hastily. “If government has no plan, any policy can be the start of a disaster,” she said in an interview with Chinese media last week.

Others, like Mr. Li, feel betrayed. Since becoming a real estate agent, he has helped Chinese investors buy 30 or 40 condos over the last two years.”…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/vancouvers-real-estate-tax-sparks-backlash-from-chinese-buyers/article31404771/

#BonusBacklash,Or… #ConfusciousSay,… #”He who acts with a constant view to his own advantage will be much murmured against.”…

#173 CIBC says 15% foreign in Toronto on 08.15.16 at 1:51 pm

So Garth’s buddy Benny Tal says at least 15% foreign buyer in Toronto. That probably means 25%.

Garth looking wrong again saying foreign money is not an issue.

Give a link, and we will discuss. — Garth

#174 Sheane Wallace on 08.15.16 at 1:53 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/30-something-couple-got-rich-090000502.html

Nice add GT,

BTW couple living and travelling on 30-40 k/per year without working is a science fiction.
I don’t think for a couple or family of 3 you can live on less than 150 k before taxes in Van or To. Without saving a dime. Next year will be 160, then 170.
If they retire in Thailand without travelling, I would buy it

#175 Sheane Wallace on 08.15.16 at 1:56 pm

Nice ad, damn it

#176 dsw on 08.15.16 at 2:06 pm

Fwiw, I’m not seeing these price declines where I am at.

open house in my strata attached complex in Coquitlam yesterday. Streams of people, mostly Asian (Japanese, Chinese, Korean). Price of the unit was $659,500, or some 200K higher than what I paid for it barely 4 years ago.

I want prices to come down to make detached more affordable, BUT i’m really not seeing price declines…

#177 Noel on 08.15.16 at 2:25 pm

#174 CIBC says 15% foreign in Toronto on 08.15.16 at 1:51 pm
So Garth’s buddy Benny Tal says at least 15% foreign buyer in Toronto. That probably means 25%.

Garth looking wrong again saying foreign money is not an issue.

Give a link, and we will discuss. — Garth
___________________________

National bank economists estimated 33% in Vancouver and 8% in Toronto:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/study-likely-to-fuel-debate-on-foreign-investment-in-canadian-real-estate/article29371679/

Get back to us when you learn to read. “A multiple-choice survey by the Financial Times of 77 wealthy Chinese investors who had bought real estate outside of China. Of those, 33.5 per cent said they bought homes in United States, while 11.7 per cent invested in Vancouver and 8.3 per cent in Toronto.” — Garth

#178 rainclouds on 08.15.16 at 2:28 pm

#164 Ulsterman

This might help…………..

http://dilbert.com/series/67-Dick-from-the-Internet

#179 Noel on 08.15.16 at 2:35 pm

Get back to us when you learn to read. “A multiple-choice survey by the Financial Times of 77 wealthy Chinese investors who had bought real estate outside of China. Of those, 33.5 per cent said they bought homes in United States, while 11.7 per cent invested in Vancouver and 8.3 per cent in Toronto.” — Garth
_________________

You asked for a link to an estimate on foreign ownership and I gave you one. Oh, and I assure you I know how to read.

Very juvenile and uncalled for response from you.

The link requested was for a CIBC report. Your link was months old, from a different source and based on a laughable survey of 77 people. Typical of the house-pumping propaganda you spread here daily. Go away. — Garth

#180 Context on 08.15.16 at 2:46 pm

Some of this condo real estate is becoming interesting as found one with real rooms, a real kitchen, and a relaxing view. This is situated by the science center looking over a golf course and the city skyline with the #100 bus at the door going to the subway or hit the don valley into the city. This is in a fabulous hood with 3 bedrooms and two bathrooms; a real dining room and a real kitchen dining area too. The cost and taxes are a bit high at $296,000 / $1,314 for this condo with a dream view but you cannot have it all. Now if I was a real estate agent this would be a winner for a couple that wanted a sense of peace with access to the city.

#181 Sebastien on 08.15.16 at 3:00 pm

Hi Garth,

What if few these bad data points are just the result of buyers (foreign or not) throwing a short temper tantrum at the new tax?

Once the new foreign tax is out of the media circus, prices will resume their upward trend.

#182 RandyJ on 08.15.16 at 3:02 pm

C’mon Garth, you have been saying Real Estate is doomed since 1995 and telling people to sell, run for the hills and rent for the rest of their lives. Is RE overpriced in some markets and are we due for a correction? Yes, I think we are but to paint all RE with the same brush is a little crazy. I am a RE investor and have been for 10 years and own 46 rental properties on Van Island. Recently I advised my GF to look at doing the same after her “professionally managed” mutual funds etc. returned her a paltry 3% over the last 15 years. She started buying good condos in smaller Van Island markets ( Duncan B.C. ) since beginning of 2014 and now has 5 units. She bought 2 bed units for $83K ( rents for $825) , $82K ( $825 rent ) $87K ( $820 rent ) $43K ( her most recent, it was a foreclosure $800 rent ) and a 1 bed 62K ( $650 rent ). Great tenants in a market with very low vacancy. She is SO happy as she is making returns far greater than her mutual funds etc. and has already realized good appreciation on them. MOST people are not RE investors, rather they are speculators! Buy the right RE and you will be miles ahead. I live in Victoria and you can still buy a decent house here with an in law suite ( That will rent for $1200 month covering $250,000 of the mortgage ) for around $500K. More millionaires created their wealth with RE than any other investment vehicle. Your advice Garth for the most part is just plain bad, check for yourself folks look up the blogs on this site from 2008 where he advised you to sell your RE as he said you will never get a better price for it, it has no future. How has that worked out? Great for me I guess, more tenants and great for Garth with people pouring money into his investments. Buy the right RE, buy investment RE and you will be much better off in the long run by far

#183 RentYVR on 08.15.16 at 3:14 pm

@#60 Mark,

You’re way off. I’ve rented in YVR since 2012 (relocated here from YVR) and always been forced into fixed term leases that expire. At the expiration of our last place in July (a 2-bed townhouse in the West end) the landord wanted a 40% rent increase due to “market conditions” which favour him . We took a look and found that in the 3 years since we last searched for a 2-bed rental in the city, rental rates where up no less than 20-30% and even that wasn’t the true picture as most places we found were bid up during the application process. Bottom line is our rent is now up more 20% YOY for a smaller unit and yet we feel lucky just to have found something in this market….

#184 Long Branch Apprentice on 08.15.16 at 3:38 pm

Smoking Man, Freedom First and Godth would fill out the podium for most interesting commenters.

If any of these 3 would fail a piss test, then I’d have to sub in someone else, not sure really. Maybe Millennial1982.

As far as the machismo, it’s whats kept the human race moving forward over the last few millenniums.

So when is this oil short squeeze coming off huh? Maybe a few of you closet Trump supporters can enlighten this dawg.

These Rio Olympics are showing Canada for what we really are, an emerging market with a highly inflated sense of self importance.

Cue the haters.

#185 tkid on 08.15.16 at 3:38 pm

#175, With a passive income of $40,000 I can live in Burlington in a nice apartment building (http://www.drewloholdings.com/apartments-for-rent/cities/burlington), and live a nice quiet retired life. I could even commute to Toronto daily for work, but then there goes the nice quiet life.

A couple who share expenses won’t need much more than that.

#186 Context on 08.15.16 at 3:41 pm

Some of this condo junk that is being built amazes me to no end. The kitchen is an important traditional room and they are substituting this with a pre-manufactured unit which screams the word cheap. These builders are building boxes in the core for suckers with these cheap kitchens and bathrooms, then there is the view. The question you must always ask is who benefits as the cost per square foot profit is going from your pocket, based on debt, into the builder’s pocket. Anyone sitting on this junk needs to sell and if you must buy look around.

#187 bdwy sktrn on 08.15.16 at 3:45 pm

can we talk about health???

Too many burgers , Hillary?
Perhaps she’s been comfort eating since leaving office as sec of state. Perhaps she’s simply been enjoying her freedom so much that she hasn’t bothered to adhere to her once strict exercise regime. Whatever the explanation, there is no disguising the expansion of Clinton’s girth as she heads in the fall
.

Clinton looked as if she had put on a few pounds in recent months

Fitness expert Max Willcocks said: ‘ it looks like she’s been neglecting her health and fitness regime. Then again, I don’t imagine she’s the kind of person who sits down for dinner and says: “I think I will just have the entrée.”’

At least Bill’s still slim
Naturally blessed with a long and lean frame, Bill has clearly worked harder than his wife to maintain his trim physique post presidency.

#188 bdwy sktrn on 08.15.16 at 4:10 pm

#184 RentYVR on 08.15.16 at 3:14 pm
@#60 Mark,

You’re way off
———————
you could have just stopped there, we all get it.

*********************
mark is a sad, sad person who lies to make himself feel better.

#189 Aggregator on 08.15.16 at 4:24 pm

Vancouver’s real estate tax sparks backlash from Chinese buyers

Three years ago, Jack Li signed to buy a modest one-bedroom condo in Richmond for about $200,000, a chance to gain a relatively cheap foothold in British Columbia’s Lower Mainland.

Then he waited as his new home slowly emerged from the ground. But far more exciting than construction progress was the rapid rise in the value of his purchase as real estate prices took flight. Mr. Li, a Beijing oil and gas worker who turned to real estate when energy prices crashed, decided to buy more.

Ok. That's pretty normal. But here's where it gets interesting.

He was so sold on the Vancouver region he became a licensed real estate agent in the province.

In case you missed that. He's a foreign buyer that's subject to the 15% tax and he has a realtor license in BC.

At this point I wouldn't be surprised if a foreigner can also be a licensed home appraiser too.

#190 jess on 08.15.16 at 4:29 pm

the “black ledger”
It’s a very vivid example of how political parties are financed in Ukraine,” said Daria N. Kaleniuk, the executive director of the Anti-Corruption Action Center in Kiev. “It represents the very dirty cash economy in Ukraine.”

Trump Campaign Chief Slams NY Times, Denies Receiving Ukraine Payments

perception/ confidence
If perception of corruption is high…
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/corruption-index
Business Confidence in Ukraine is reported by the National Bank of Ukraine.

#191 TheDude on 08.15.16 at 4:36 pm

Agreed re: Vancouver decline.

The London graph suggests similar slowdowns happened in 2011 and 2014 though….?

#192 IHCTD9 on 08.15.16 at 4:38 pm

Last I read, if you are a born Canadian living in the GTA, you are an official minority. I would expect foreign ownership to be sky high there simply because of this.

#193 Context on 08.15.16 at 5:01 pm

You can blame Harper for messing with the Real Estate system in Canada. He and the guy who eats bacon and eggs for breakfast with his hands rigged the mortgage system. This hooped in the masses to buy debt and gave King Harper his bragging rights of what a great economy he has made for Canada.

#194 Same Same on 08.15.16 at 5:06 pm

#184 Rentyvr

I have to agree with him.

What was never acknowledged on this site is that once you sell, or if you continue to rent, you will be renting for a very very very long time. Its a 13 year bull run in YVR, and as prices are sticky on the way down, it will take 5-10 years before any correction makes it ‘affordable again’.

Also, if there is a correction, and homeownership rates drop, what do you think that does to the vacancy rate? It keeps a very tight and low vacancy rate for many years so you will be paying the high rents for many years to come.

What is better folks – buy, ride an appreciation wave of another 20% up, flat line for years, and down another 20% for a few years – or rent for 7 or 10 more. Do the math – you will see that buying in that situation will still put you ahead of renting financially and nesting security.

And nobody believe prices are falling. It may take many more years before the buyer and seller game of chicken plays out, but nothing is happening now. That buyers tax will spook people for a few more weeks but the word it out globally – invest in YVR and you can do no wrong.

Time marches on people – cries of overvalued real estate and sell now have been heard since 2006 in some markets (YVR). Can you wait another decade? Can you, the former homeowner that bought for intangible reasons wait for a decade in someone else’s place for a decade after you sell?

#195 Brazil ex-pat on 08.15.16 at 5:14 pm

#118 meslippery on 08.14.16 at 10:44 pm
As predicted, the Brexit fallout is making some people wonder why they ever voted the country out of the biggest, most beneficial free trade zone and economic union on the planet.
——————————
Could be they are tired of jobs going to cheaper free
trade zones leaving us with out good paying jobs.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The only people pissed off with Brexit are the freeloaders and bankers……Watch GB become a strong nation again now that they are free of the un-elected dictators in Brussels.

#196 Bobby on 08.15.16 at 5:55 pm

Asking a realtor for accurate real estate advice is much akin to asking a used car dealer about a prospective car purchase. They both work on commission and only get paid if you buy.
I still get the real estate stats for certain areas here in Victoria. No, there are not any bidding wars and most homes go for under asking or for full price at best. There are some that don’t sell and are resisted. I certainly haven’t seen the hordes of buyers coming across on the ferry with their bags of cash, buying up the local market. Sure, there are some, but not a lot.
Do your own homework and get the facts before you buy or rent. Realtors quote the low vacancy rate but if you look closely at the stats it is for properties built specifically for rental. Many of those were built in the 70’s. There are lots of empty properties for rent, however, they can’t be had for less than $1000. If a house sells for $500k the rent will have to be $2500 to carry it. How many can afford that? Not many if you are on a fixed income.
Once this ends, and it will, there are going to be a lot of unhappy consumers who will want to blame someone. It’s going to get ugly!

#197 Metaxa on 08.15.16 at 6:03 pm

#104 Don:
Was camping this weekend near the just outside Campbell River, BC – once a busy resource town.

My hood also…just got back from three days at Stella Beach off Rock Bay Main myself.

I go up and down that highway real often and I have to say I don’t notice any extraordinarily larger number of for sale signs for the time of year.
Some of those larger parcels are owned by our version if 1%-ers and periodically get listed just to see if they land a big fish too.

Further in my immediate neighbourhood we have a home to my left that sold last year at $315. The one to my right just sold, listed at $339.9 I don’t know what it sold for but was told by the owner he got over listing. Sold in two days.

A lady my wife works with lives in a nearby cul de sac, badly kept home. no updates or upgrades, listed for the same $339 and sold for +$7,000 the same day…they didn’t even get the sign up on the lawn!

All these Realtors buzzing about that I know (small town, eh?) tell me I could sell in a day for $370+/- as I’m upgraded and updated in and out.

These are all mid-70’s AHOP houses around 1,800 sq ft in a wooded neighbourhood with a creek running through it, a salmon creek with steelhead, salmon and stuff…not a golf course creek.
They originally(’75) sold for in and around $60,000 with first resale at $80,000 then into the $100,000’s for most of the ’90’s. That is where I got in.
They were $250 for a good long time and now…$350 all day long, eh?

So…make of that what you will…I’ll be on the deck with a beer in my left and a stick of Gunter’s XXX hot pepperoni in my right, looking out over my creek and acre of taxpayer owned green space beyond…life is good.

#198 bdwy sktrn on 08.15.16 at 6:08 pm

A wealthy man wanted to get married. He was having trouble choosing among three likely candidates. He gives each woman a present of $5,000 and watches to see what they do with the money.

The first does a total makeover. She goes to a fancy beauty salon, gets her hair done and nails done, new makeup; buys several new outfits and dresses up very nicely for the man. She tells him that she has done this to be more attractive for him because she loves him so much.

The man was impressed.

The second goes shopping to buy the man gifts. She gets him a new set of golf clubs, some new gizmos for his computer, and some expensive clothes. As she presents these gifts, she tells him that she has spent all the money on him because she loves him so much.

Again, the man is impressed.

The third invests the money in the stock market. She earns several times the $5,000. She gives him back his $5,000 and reinvests the remainder in a joint account. She tells him that she wants to save for their future because she loves him so much.

Obviously, the man was impressed.

The man thought for a long time about what each woman had done with the money he’d given her.

Then he married the one with the biggest tits.

Men are like that, you know and I’m no different

#199 Context on 08.15.16 at 6:10 pm

There is an intrinsic factor with the largest bubble in history which needs to be added to a new model of risk called the BEAST. The time period has opened the door with shell games and too many people are involved to sort it out. One cannot look at three factors anymore as its a complex matrix of deadly components. My studies of urban planning and economics leads me to believe the bullet or trigger mechanism will not be traditional bringing on the bust. It will become a series of small events leading to the greatest factor of all called FEAR.

#200 RentYVR on 08.15.16 at 6:10 pm

@ #195

Sure, it would have been better if I bought 10 yrs ago but I can’t go back so why try to jump in at the end in the hopes that it goes up further. My wife and I are both under 40 with good careers so if this keeps us we’ll just pack up and move on to somewhere where the cost of living is lower (which is practically anywhere). It’s sad because we really like this city and chose to move here but whaterver there’s lots of beautiful places to live…someone here last week posted a list of available houses in US cities and what struck me was the how cheap housing still is in places San Diego or Phoenix. They can both comparable to Van (desirable climates and very few head offices/high paying jobs).

#201 Demystifying Latest Vancouver Market Stats- Steve Saretsky on 08.15.16 at 6:14 pm

[…] Market stats? REBGV is saying one thing and Zolo (a real estate brokerage) is saying another. A recent blog post from the infamous Garth Turner says the REBGV is misleading the public and Zolo should be relied […]

#202 Context on 08.15.16 at 6:50 pm

#199 bdwy sktrn :- Little Peggy March was a real woman who you will never meet in life. Never paint all women with the same brush or maybe your not man enough for them.

#203 unbalanced on 08.15.16 at 6:50 pm

Prices gotta come down

#204 Entrepreneur on 08.15.16 at 6:58 pm

Mixed views on real estate, to buy or not. I agree with #200 Context, it will be fear but also the price is too high for most. Oh, might get lucky but might not, too big to gamble.

As a nation a leader, both federally and provincially, should have data of foreign investors, a no brainer.

I come here for the financial info, thanks GT, and the entertainment from the bloggers, all are good in each their own. Enjoy this blog!

#205 chopstix on 08.15.16 at 7:00 pm

re: your post below to landlords exploting tenants with ‘fixed term leases’
puh-lease! with a .6 % rental vacancy there is so much exploitation going on…’learn to negotiate’…if the vacancy rate was 5x and there wasn’t so much greed in vancouver, then perhaps…otherwise, nada!

OR if you got $30 bucks off ’cause you’re already getting hosed for rent in the first place
————————————-
#49 Chaddywack on 08.14.16 at 6:14 pm
@paulo 26

The reason people sign fixed term leases in Vancouver is because they know that tenants have NO negotiating power. I’ve refused a few times and the landlords didn’t care. They just say that they basically have 10-15 other people who want the unit now so they will move on to someone else who is willing to sign.

The entire Aquilini rental building downtown only does fixed term leases that expire after a year and the tenant has to move out or deal with a large rental increase. It’s just the reality of the market in Vancouver. Tenants have no bargaining power.

You have the power to negotiate any terms in a rental agreement. A friend just moved to Vancouver from abroad 3 months ago with no rental history and no job (but lots of cash). I had no problem finding them a nice 1 bedroom in Yaletown on a 1 year lease at a reasonable rent in a nice waterfront building that goes to month to month after 1 year. I actually got them to reduce the asking rent by $30 per month.

People need to learn how to negotiate.

#206 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.15.16 at 7:06 pm

@#199 brdy Skytrn
“Men are like that, you know and I’m no different.
******************************************

Classy.

…this coming from a man who rides elevators all day….

#207 chopstix on 08.15.16 at 7:09 pm

mark…I have no idea what city you’re in…rents have skyrockted in many parts of the vancouver, north/wet van, east van, richmond, burnaby…i see this firsthand….my friend renting his 600 ft sq apt by kerr/marine dr for $1500/mo (not including any utilities!) …he knows a student renting some dumpy room in an east van basement for $1000….tons of places are jacking up their rates, and meanwhile that fat f*k housing minister Rich Coleman doesn nothing, bullsh*tting us all that there are no needs to address fixed term rentals.
____________________
Mark on 08.14.16 at 7:10 pm
“The reason people sign fixed term leases in Vancouver is because they know that tenants have NO negotiating power. I’ve refused a few times and the landlords didn’t care. They just say that they basically have 10-15 other people who want the unit now so they will move on to someone else who is willing to sign.”

Yet rent increases in Vancouver are quite minimal and have barely kept up with inflation. Doesn’t fit with your whole narrative of renters having no negotiation power. If anything, with speculator landlords increasingly desperate to keep their units full and the mortgage payments made in this era of stagnating/falling prices, the tenants have the bargaining power.

Lots of landlords either lie as their negotiating tactic (thinking they’ll have another sucker to come around). At some point, you have to take their up-front dishonesty as a sign that they’re probably not an entity you want to rent from.

#208 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 08.15.16 at 7:24 pm

Zolo is awesome.

Real estate boards around the country, North America, ney around the world a conspiring to dupe you into buying and lining their pockets.

BTW I have opted out of real estate for the time being in order to sell my unique tin foil hats. They have a special design scientifically proven to repel REALTORS®

#209 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 08.15.16 at 7:35 pm

I don’t ever recall seeing the markets this hot. When I say “hot” I mean this fraught with emotion. Makes the US election look like watching paint dry by comparison.

Fear and Greed…

Shift is a comin’ but it won’t quell the heat, merely, without warning, shift the landscape under the feet of the players. Of the Bulls and Bears… it’s the Pigs who will get slaughtered.

#210 fleabitten monkey on 08.15.16 at 7:46 pm

#195 same same – at this stage of the game it depends highly on your risk tolerance. Point is, nobody really knows what is going to happen. Values are so over inflated in Vancouver, even according to CMHC now, that you simply can’t assume prices will flatline or decline by 20% for only 2 years. Assuming it will take 5-10 years for any meaningful price correction given things are sticky on the way down it also a shot in the dark, lets face it. Buying now requires a lot of capital you can afford to lose or a huge risk on attitude coupled with the hope for further 20% gains. This is why in my opinion we are going to see the market seize up with not a lot of sales activity for some time.

#211 kylethegreat on 08.15.16 at 8:02 pm

I have no money. please send help.