To the last drop

SQUIRREL modified

Carl laments Victoria these days, since it’s being infected by Vancouveritis. It’s alarming. People are growing beards. Vespa sales are swelling. Gender parity is sweeping through the city. Weed fumes waft from new cafes. And real estate prices are levitating.

“It’s maybe not as frothy as the other side of the straight but not rational either,” he says. “However, I do wonder if there will ever be a significant correction to the market. Real estate in Canada doesn’t look like a free market with the huge influence government can have.”

Carl raises an interesting point. As we all know the old, hated, fossilized dino cabinet of Stephen Harper helped create a housing frenzy to help fight the recessionary pull of 2008-9. New buyer incentives and the home reno tax credit, combined with plunging mortgage rates, encouraged a real estate boom and spending spree that saved the economy from the correction which nailed the US middle class. Of course, we got record debt and record prices because of it. And Harper scored zero credit.

But what now, Carl asks? Could government ever allow the housing gasbag to deflate?

“So what do you think the odds are that in a significant Canadian correction our government would sit on the sidelines? Increase amortization to 40 years again and go back to zero down and they can keep this bubble going for many years (decades?) more. With Canada’s high home ownership I foresee the game being rigged to protect all the bad decisions owners have made, renters be damned. Could the government pull this stunt?”

Sure it could. But it’s doubtful. Everybody should be assuming that whatever a property costs today, it will be worth less in a few years. There are many good reasons for that.

First, housing already has far too much stimulus. Mortgage rates are at historic lows and tepid measures to dampen borrowing obviously haven’t worked. Politicians just can’t help themselves – tinkering with the system to constantly add more buyer incentives. Like BC’s transfer tax holiday and T2’s commitment to let people diddle with their RRSPs for a down payment during life events. All this has led to artificially high valuations unsupported by economic fundamentals. Do not count on any more.

Why? Because household debt’s outta control. It just keeps getting worse.

Friday we learned a heap of fresh mortgages has pushed borrowing to a new extreme – $1.923 trillion in debt of which $1.262 trillion are home loans (a trillion is a thousand billion, which is a thousand million). So the debt-to-income ratio is now over 165%, and cheap money is making it worse. “Canadian consumer borrowing interest rates fell once again through the start of the year, which may only encourage a further acceleration in borrowing,” says a TD economist. “While the increase in spending and borrowing will help support economic growth, households are increasingly becoming more vulnerable to a potential interest rate shock or slowdown in the housing market.”

You and your house-horny BIL may not believe a ‘shock’ is possible, but that’s what we pay leaders for – to fret about this eventuality. And they are worried.

Did you catch the latest job numbers? They sucked. Worst performance in three years. Our jobless rate has climbed to 7.3%, while the US rate has dropped below 5% amid a torrent of new hiring. Low commodity prices are to blame, but our economic growth – at around 1% – is sub-standard, while federal finances are about to deteriorate. The new federal government will crank spending and takes us deeply back into deficits on March 22nd.

Slack labour conditions mean workers have less bargaining power, so wage gains in Canada have been lackluster. They sure as hell haven’t kept pace with housing prices, which speculation and cheap money have catapulted higher. The average property increased in value last year at seven times the rate of inflation and almost ten times the rate of economic growth. This is utterly unsustainable, and yet buyers, owners and the media now take it as the new normal.

Big mistake.

But back to Carl’s query. Would Ottawa intervene to prop up a real estate market that entered into a natural decline? After all, with jobs harder to find, debt bloating and the US set to raise rates once or twice in 2016, are we not getting closer to the inevitable blood-letting? Would T2 bring back zero-down payments or 40-year ams to prevent housing from sliding over the brink?

Not a chance.

To do so would push house lust even higher at the same time the economy weakened – further detaching the market from fundamentals. It would propel personal debt levels far beyond where Americans blew themselves up. It would increase risk for an entire generation of people who have over-reached to buy in the last five years. And it would turn a potential soft landing into a giant crater full of debris and heartache. So, won’t happen.

Unless I’m wrong. In which case, take cover.

171 comments ↓

#1 Randy on 03.13.16 at 6:13 pm

Doesn’t Canada’s Insane Equalization and Transfer System indicate that Canadians love Wealth Transfer and that we are truly Socialists ?

#2 Robert McFlurton on 03.13.16 at 6:14 pm

I got First Garth! :)

#3 DreamingInTechnicolour on 03.13.16 at 6:15 pm

The banks always win. Always have and always will.

#4 For those about to flop... on 03.13.16 at 6:18 pm

I feel a b-grade chart from VREU coming up in 3.2.1…

M41BC

#5 Randy Randerson on 03.13.16 at 6:19 pm

Doubtful GT. The new T2 Sunshine government is all about appearances, voter appeasement, and pixie dust.

When this new government tried to appease to feminists and being politically correct (yeah, the irony) by having equal numbers of penises and vaginas in the cabinet, and not about merit, we know this government will do anything in its power to appeal to the masses. The masses of dumbasses, that is.

#6 pathcontrolmonk on 03.13.16 at 6:20 pm

Victoria is for blue-hairs.

#7 Randy Randerson on 03.13.16 at 6:22 pm

Posted too quickly. To continue, I think T2 will do anything, reality and economy be damned, to bring back 40 years amortization with 0% down, not to mention the ill-conceived notion to buy a house whenever someone has a life event (does heart attack counts?) to have the RE gas bag inflated as long as he can. Probably not now, but definitely around election time if the bubble hasn’t already popped.

#8 LH on 03.13.16 at 6:23 pm

HOLD, don’t sell the nice SFHs in C01 and C02.
Instead, all new income is going to non-maple equities such as the one share of Berkshire common I bagged last week.

Goal: 20 or more shares of BRK common at age 40.
And maybe I’ll finally hit Garth’s rule of 90, all without selling a single shingle.

#9 waiting on the westcoast on 03.13.16 at 6:24 pm

Continued contraction of our service revenue in Canada…

Interestingly, Ottawa/Montreal are taking a bigger hit than anywhere else in the country. Both down a whopping 25% from last year (Feb month over month). Calgary/Edmonton down 14%. Toronto and Vancouver continue to pile it on with growth of 46% and 33% respectively. Other smaller markets like Okanagon, Van Island, Regina and Winniped averaged mid-single digits…

Overall growth in the system is up 37% over last year so that gives you an idea of the comparison to the continued growth in the US. Many operations were growing there in excess of 50%… a number in excess of 100%

In AUS, mainly up over 35% except Perth (commodity-based economy) which was punished by the same value but in the other direction.

The continued growth in Van/Toronto reminds me of the big growth the west coast of US was on just prior to the drop in 2008.

#10 Victoria Real Estate Update on 03.13.16 at 6:27 pm

Nice of you to write about Victoria Garth. Thanks.

For those of you who may be interested in the recent (2010-2014) performance of Victoria’s housing market, this is for you.

VICTORIA’S RECENT PRICE DECLINE

. . . . . . . Single Family Home Prices. . . . . . . . .
. .Percent Above/Below May 2010 Price Level. . .
. . . . . .x = Toronto, * = Victoria (City). . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+25%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x. . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+20% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+15%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .x. . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+10% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
….0%. . . x*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .*. . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .*. . . .
——————————————————————————
. . . . . . .May . . . . . . . .May. . . . . .December.
. . . . . . .2010. . . . . . .. 2012. . . . . . .2013. . .

(sources: indices of Victoria’s R/E board, Toronto’s R/E board)

The price data for Victoria (City) was taken from the local board’s frankenumber price index so the price plunge that it shows (11.7%) was likely significantly deeper and prices probably continued to fall well into 2014. Any price improvement that may have happened since then would be far less than what the frankenumber price index shows.

Prices across Greater Toronto gained 22.0% over the same period of time.

LESSONS FROM VICTORIA’S RECENT PRICE PLUNGE:

* Always expect a lot of hype from real estate “professionals”, especially at the times when they think there has been recent upward price movement. Don’t believe the hype. They’re simply trying to make you feel that you will be priced out forever if you don’t buy now. This creates more demand/sales and commission money. It’s all about them.

Anyone who listened to the hype in 2010 in Victoria and was convinced that it was a good time to buy did so just before house prices began to fall.

Many of those who bought near the peak in Victoria and had to sell after prices fell lost a lot of money. None of these families received any financial compensation from the real estate “professionals” who told them to buy now.

The same real estate “professionals” who gave Victoria families (what proved to be) destructive “buy now” advice in 2010 are at it again.

* It’s common for market conditions (supply/demand) to change quickly. This is what happened in 2010 in Victoria. No matter what housing market in the world you consider, the current supply and demand (listings/sales) conditions are only temporary.

Just like in 2010, many families who have bought recently will regret doing so after prices have fallen below the level at which they bought.

FALLING RATES WILL BE REPLACED BY RISING RATES

5-year fixed mortgage rates will begin their journey back to normal levels (north of 5%) almost immediately. House prices fall as rates rise.

Victoria’s price decline (2010-2014) took place while rates were falling, which prevented prices from falling faster and deeper than they did. That stimulative support will soon be gone and replaced by rising rates – which creates an environment that is the opposite of stimulative and will be a heavy weight pushing down on prices.

It doesn’t take much of a housing price correction to destroy the household finances of a family. No crash will be necessary, although a price crash could happen in Canada as its debt-bloated housing bubble deflates.

If you put your buying plans on hold for now the only thing you’ll be “missing out” on will be significantly lower house prices in the future.

#11 CatzAzz on 03.13.16 at 6:30 pm

Taken from your The “Hots” article from Friday.

“In a hot market, swarming with hollow-eyed Millennials cranked up on massive pre-approvals and weed”…..

LMFAO……that just about explains young Canadian mainstream mentality. You forgot the hockey and beer.

And thats why you just might be wrong about T2 not going 0 downpayments and 40 year mortgages ….

#12 mitzerboy aka queencitykid on 03.13.16 at 6:33 pm

hopefully the truth wont be stranger then fiction

#13 Hi anthony on 03.13.16 at 6:38 pm

Hey Garth,
You have single handedly saved my wife and I from financial suicide….. Although she hates renting. Long story short come 2019/2020, we will be in fine shape to buy a great house here in Yellowknife, N.T without taking on a huge mortgage. One look at some amortization tables with just 5% down was enough to convince me that renting, (therefore cash in pocket) is king. Great blog, I read it everyday.

#14 Don on 03.13.16 at 6:42 pm

The question is a political one, not one based on economics. Did we avoid the great recession with a borrowing / buying / construction boom, or did we defer it? From Harper’s perspective politically, what’s the difference? He’s walking his dog and deciding if he wants to do anything much with the rest of his life, so HE avoided it, whatever might happen to the rest of us.

Trudeau might try the same math, if he’s seeing the same oncoming train that we all see. Can he inflate the market to take the edge off a recession, and gear it down later, when other economic pistons are pumping? More importantly, does he think that will work (no matter, objectively, if it can)? Can he push the mess forward enough to leave the cleanup for the next crew?

So far, his government seems to be willing to take most issues head-on, but I’m sure they’re as capable of cynical politics when required as anyone else.

#15 TurnerNation on 03.13.16 at 6:47 pm

Toronto needs a large gourmet supermarket?

Overpriced nonsense imo.

Loblaws launching a scratch ‘n dent line of veggies.

http://www.blogto.com/grocery/saks-food-hall-pusateris-toronto

#16 Vundo on 03.13.16 at 6:48 pm

I don’t think Garth is wrong about the consequences, it’s just that he seems very confident that the government will do the right thing when it comes to 0 down / 40 year terms while at the same time ripping on them at every available opportunity regarding the upcoming deficit. It seems odd that a government that would spend so irresponsibly would suddenly become prudent when there are millions of votes that could be bought by feeding the mortgage monster. I hope Garth is right in predicting the government will not act irresponsibly on this issue.

#17 Michael on 03.13.16 at 6:49 pm

Stop, Drop, and Flip!

#18 Robert on 03.13.16 at 6:51 pm

Another HAMcouver scandal. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-realty-withholding-commissions-from-sale-of-luxury-homes-agents-say/article29198578/

#19 sockeye sam on 03.13.16 at 6:52 pm

100 million Americans sitting at home with no job and you still believe those phony Obama numbers. Add another 20% to those unemployment numbers. Start listening to the white American folk that call into Coast to Coast a.m. hosted by George Noory and you’ll get the true numbers. Listen to Gerald Celente and Peter Schiff for the real numbers. America is teetering on another recession.Wait till all the frackers fold.

Not even close to recession. — Garth

#20 Nodebt on 03.13.16 at 6:52 pm

Hey blog dogs, how many of u invest in stock portfolios rather than etfs? Or vice versa. I’m debating what I should do, let’s hear it? Thx

Great place to get expert advice from amateurs. — Garth

#21 Jay on 03.13.16 at 6:56 pm

I’m in as secure a position as anyone, and I’ve been frantically deleveraging, and locking in interest rates for extremely long terms where I can’t deleverage.

I can’t fathom how anyone could be seeing the same news and thinking of anything but that. Tens of thousands of laid off people, who is to say you aren’t next?

#22 Pacman on 03.13.16 at 6:58 pm

If Trump wins, perhaps we will really get HAM (Hot American Money). That should keep on inflating the housing gasbag nicely for his term in office? What happens after that – whoosh!!!

#23 Brazil ex-pat on 03.13.16 at 7:03 pm

“Would Govt intervene? Not a chance”

And that folks is why Canada is the only country in the world with stoooopid RE prices. Its the only place in the world you can legally launder your dirty money because the the Govt of Canada is the ONLY country in the world not doing anything to curb foreign buyers (or proxies of foreign buyers). Good luck everyone !!

Foreign buyers are not the thing to worry about. — Garth

#24 Mark on 03.13.16 at 7:04 pm

“Could government ever allow the housing gasbag to deflate?”

The better question is, “could government prop up the housing gasbag as deflation accelerates?” The answer, a we’ve seen from the US experience is “no”. Falling prices are a natural market mechanism of telling the supply side to reduce their supply. If government were to do something crazy like propping up the housing market, physical oversupply would increase even beyond today’s levels. Prices may, in the short term, rise, but over the longer term, the additional supply is toxic for the housing market.

Physical oversupply is at the root of the nationwide decline in housing prices. For a short while, with CMHC stimulation prior to the 2013 subprime crackdown, families at the margins were able to purchase houses with subprime CMHC loans. Ownership rates were pushed to a record in excess of 70%. History tells us that it generally takes a full liquidation of excessive speculation and investment in the supply sector before prices can hit a bottom and eventually recover. The pain will continue in 2016 and for many years beyond. Combined with demographic headwinds, contemporary buyers may very well be looking well into the late 2020s, if not later, to break even in nominal terms. In real terms, they may never.

Remember, Trudeau was (and arguably still is) a renter. Despite having the wealth and salary to buy. Say all you might want about his speeches and policy pronouncements to date, but the housing speculators showed their (mostly Tory) colours over the past number of years, so there’s not only economic sense, but there’s political payback to be had by letting the speculators dangle in the wind. The “Khalids” of the world may actually have to go out and get real jobs instead of holding “15 to 20 houses destined for resale” and thinking they’re gonna get rich.

#25 Millennial Realist on 03.13.16 at 7:10 pm

And any demographic push from millennials relying on parental money for down payments is just about over in its upward impact on real estate.

There is more and more interesting data coming out on just how badly those younger than the Boomers have been screwed by the economy these last decades.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/07/revealed-30-year-economic-betrayal-dragging-down-generation-y-income?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Look a those data lines – it is quite revealing to see how much income has grown, even for pensioners, while the younger have seen incomes decline.

Here’s another story, of a Boomer and a Millennial trading places:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/12/millennial-baby-boomer-trade-places-stab-envy

This is all coming home to roost, in hoods all across Canada.

Getting halfway decent real jobs and hope for a sort of normal life is the focus for most of the younger set now, not real estate.

Propping up this crazy debt-fuelled real estate bubble? Not a priority for people I know.

And more will turn to solutions like co-housing and shared home solutions, which will take them out of the realty market for even longer periods.

Boomers counting on their homes to fund their retirements would be wise to get For Sale signs on their lawns, like right now.

There just are not enough millennials and others left, with enough money, or even the inclination to buy, to support this market two or more years from now.

#26 dave on 03.13.16 at 7:11 pm

The article is missing an important word: ‘immigration.’ As in ‘government immigration program,’ they can just let in more immigrants who will work cheap and push the housing market up and that’s what they will do.

Immigration has been very consistent at .8% of the population. Highly unlikely it will change much. — Garth

#27 jay on 03.13.16 at 7:14 pm

Go out and take out a huge mortgage and don’t save any money.Do your part for Canada .Do what the Government want’s you to do.

#28 Retired Boomer WI on 03.13.16 at 7:17 pm

How different is the housing market from the stock market? Other than you can’t invest in stocks with 5% equity…

Stocks have at times gone on a swoon and lost nearly 50% of their values. Not forever, but long enough to create enough fear that people do crazy shit, like sell at the bottom.

If you “own” a house, at least work hard to pay down the debt, if you want to buy a home, why be in a hurry now? The market is near a high. Renting another year isn’t a huge deal.

I know, I know…. “We want to start a family, so we are buying now.” Great, at a time of highest expenses (new family) you want to add long term debt with interest rate dangers.

For all the reasons enumerated on this site don’t buy in a frothy market just now.

Own the other hand, said the economist, why not?

Seems youth is always squandered on the young.

#29 lee on 03.13.16 at 7:19 pm

If the government does anything more to juice the housing market everybody who has waited on the sidelines for a crash will jump in with nothing down to join the party. Everyone will jump in until there is nobody left who wants to buy.

#30 RimJabba on 03.13.16 at 7:22 pm

I predict The Fed ups rates March FOMC. Oil will cool off some more next month if they do that. The economy is rocking along pretty good, well at least the numbers say that. Canada won’t up rates ever again.

#31 Big Dipper on 03.13.16 at 7:27 pm

“..Stephen Harper helped create a housing frenzy to help fight the recessionary pull of 2008-9. New buyer incentives and the home reno tax credit, combined with plunging mortgage rates, encouraged a real estate boom and spending spree that saved the economy from the correction which nailed the US middle class. Of course, we got record debt and record prices because of it. And Harper scored zero credit.”

———————————————–

And Harper got what he deserved. This is historical revisionism at its finest. It’s like the “commies” thinking that Jesus got killed because he disliked the rich and pushed gender equality, but neocons state that he got executed because he pushed for smaller government and lower taxes. Same event – different ideological perspectives.

The reason Canada did well and our banks survived is because the Liberals regulated the hell out of the banks and refused their attempts at consolidation. Interest rates plunged everywhere in 2008-9.

“T2’s commitment to let people diddle with their RRSPs for a down payment during life events”

That’s been around for decades and has nothing to do with T2.

Wrong on both counts. The Harper strategy actually helped Canada weather the recession, but with dire consequences. The RRSP changes were announced by Trudeau during the 2015 campaign. — Garth

#32 Mark on 03.13.16 at 7:34 pm

“Hey blog dogs, how many of u invest in stock portfolios rather than etfs? Or vice versa. I’m debating what I should do, let’s hear it? Thx”

If you’re gonna go the individual stock route, at least take a look at index funds and their holdings to benchmark your own choices and asset allocation against. But there’s a lot of reasons why a person wouldn’t want to go individual stocks versus cheap index funds, namely, its very hard for a person to achieve similar diversification unless they purchase and manage a few hundred individual holdings. Which is pretty hard to manage unless its one’s full time job.

The “data” (ie: the SPIVA reports, etc.) tell us that even most professionals in the business fail to meaningfully outperform the indices. And that’s with the benefit of a lot of paid research.

“The article is missing an important word: ‘immigration.’ As in ‘government immigration program,’ they can just let in more immigrants who will work cheap and push the housing market up and that’s what they will do.”

Immigration pushes the housing market and prices down over time as those immigrants, “working cheap”, contribute to supply. The construction industry is one of the most enthusiastic employers of newcomers to Canada.

“And that folks is why Canada is the only country in the world with stoooopid RE prices.”

Most other countries have gone through speculative cycles, driven by local speculators before. Canada’s bubble is just slightly larger, largely on account of extraordinary government support for the subprime sector.

#33 BUBU on 03.13.16 at 7:36 pm

unemployment numbers don’t count…. credit and interest rate is setting the real estate price… look at Calgary and Edmonton… unemployment up but prices the same… you would expect a 10-20% decline but… as long as banks give you money, no problem..

Actually nothing matters more to real estate than income and employment. — Garth

#34 Brazil ex-pat on 03.13.16 at 7:38 pm

The reason Canada did well and our banks survived is because the Liberals regulated the hell out of the banks and refused their attempts at consolidation. Interest rates plunged everywhere in 2008-9.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

the reason banks did well is because world wide they were bailed out by the printing of trillions of dollars which now need to be paid back by our great great grand kids.

If the trillions of dollars that went to the criminal US Banks had gone to the American People every mortgage in the USA could have been paid for. Which one would have goosed the economy more professors?????

We have protests on stuff like this every other day in Brazil. They are happening world wide and ARE NOT being reported on main stream media. Its going to get much worse before it gets better. Good luck everyone.

#35 Mark on 03.13.16 at 7:39 pm

“look at Calgary and Edmonton… unemployment up but prices the same… “

That’s not what Realtors who are refusing to even list properties unless the sellers start at 25% off of 2013 prices, are saying these days. The Calgary market, especially, is a disaster. The same to follow across the rest of the country sooner or later.

#36 Brazil ex-pat on 03.13.16 at 7:39 pm

“And that folks is why Canada is the only country in the world with stoooopid RE prices.”

Most other countries have gone through speculative cycles, driven by local speculators before. Canada’s bubble is just slightly larger, largely on account of extraordinary government support for the subprime sector.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Every other country has foreign buyer rules. Except Canada. My post stands.

Incorrect, obviously. — Garth

#37 Jay on 03.13.16 at 7:40 pm

I recall a video of Peter Schiff around 2006 where a bunch of smug idiots were saying fundamentals (income, ability to pay) don’t matter and that things would go up indefinitely.

We all know how that song ended.

#38 Retired Boomer WI on 03.13.16 at 7:53 pm

#20 NO DEBT

I happen to do both. I started with the broad based INDEX funds. Example, Vanguards’ S&P 500, or total stock market.

A number of years ago I began adding 100 share units of dividend champion stocks.

My choice, my money, my risk. NOBODY will ever give a dam about my outcome more than I will. That being said, I have been doing this in a passive since 1987. I began actively adding individual equities since about 2004. Started small, learned quickly to always buy when their is a bit of panic, & blood in the streets (Aug-Sep 15), (Jan-Feb 16).

I AM not a professional, and the “stock money” was intended to be no more than 20% of my portfolio. The dam thing has grown a bit recently. Time to sell off some of those gainers to keep things in balance.

You tread here at your own risk.

For me, thus far it has worked!

#39 Bram on 03.13.16 at 8:02 pm

So tomorrow there will be a new Teranet House Price Index publication.
In last month’s publication, for jan’16, Canada was -0.09% month over month. And Vancouver was +0.85% month over month.

Any predictions on what February’s number will be compared to January?

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.aspx

#40 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 03.13.16 at 8:04 pm

Listen to Gerald Celente and Peter Schiff for the real numbers. America is teetering on another recession.Wait till all the frackers fold.

Not even close to recession. — Garth
_____________________________________________

There is no point in quoting those two crackpots. John Hussman and Dr. Lacy Hunt are much more unassailable and are both saying that forward indicators are pointing to a high probability of recession.

Let Garth drive the rear view mirror of unemployment figures. Its like the real estate junkies only seeing rising prices. Backward looking.

At least Garth has brought down the forecast of “only one or two” hikes in 2016 from 4 hikes. Meanwhile the Japanese Central Bank and the ECB are already panicking.

#41 Hailey D. on 03.13.16 at 8:08 pm

#1 Randy on 03.13.16 at 6:13 pm

Doesn’t Canada’s Insane Equalization and Transfer System indicate that Canadians love Wealth Transfer and that we are truly Socialists ?
——-
A lot of it goes to smoking mans province.

#42 Jan Hammer on 03.13.16 at 8:08 pm

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JzZ49gQI_IY

Yes 416 bungalows will be 100k again, enter the time machine

#43 cto on 03.13.16 at 8:09 pm

Hey garth.
Live in to gta.
Had to take kid to forest hill for pediatrician
Ok…?
Scored 2yr old table saw at curb.
This has happed before to me multiple times.
Clueless idiots with way the oo much money….
Fools

#44 FF Meaningful Relationship Second on 03.13.16 at 8:09 pm

#5 Randy Randerson on 03.13.16 at 6:19 pm

Wrong my friend. The women on T2’s team are powerhouses, “because it’s 2015” would have been better taken to mean they will allow more men into cabinet in order to reach the 50/50 split.

#45 wallflower on 03.13.16 at 8:14 pm

Well known name says, “Year 2000” – go figure on real estate across USA AND Canada going to year 2000 level.
Epic, if he is correct. Or even remotely close.

#46 FF Meaningful Relationship Second on 03.13.16 at 8:20 pm

#19 sockeye sam on 03.13.16 at 6:52 pm

100 million people eh? That about covers seniors and those under the age of 16.

#47 Doug t on 03.13.16 at 8:27 pm

This house party will continue for several years – hold tight and don’t sell yet – watch and be ready. When the goose is cooked enjoy the yield.

#48 JP on 03.13.16 at 8:38 pm

2 or 3 US rate increases coming this year, and more later. Like Garth has said before Canada will have to follow eventually. Judgement day for the DEBT zombies is on the horizon. This is such a big problem that when the ride begins, any government applied “brakes” will surely fail.

#49 Vampire Studies GMST 454 on 03.13.16 at 8:43 pm

25 Millennial – from your links:

“They confirm my belief that much of the “antagonism” between our generations has been whipped up by whoever labels us and lumps us all together as baby boomers or millennials in the first place.”

now get back to work

#50 bigtowne on 03.13.16 at 8:45 pm

In retail and fast food outlets in Etobicoke like Home Depot; McDonald’s; and Wal-Mart and Fortino’s you see the cash registers have no cashier and the customer does the self pay at the automated cash leaving our new service economy with less employees.

#51 JP on 03.13.16 at 8:47 pm

YVR and YYZ right now, perfectly summed up in this picture

http://i3.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article2372669.ece/ALTERNATES/s1023/Crowded-trains.jpg

#52 Mark Homes on 03.13.16 at 8:57 pm

Of course JT would intervene. He would have to, or everything goes into the can. And there are many things he could do. Things with precedent, and without. With precedent; cash giveaways for first time purchasers, 40 year mortgages, increase the RSP home buyer’s plan, etc.

#53 Penises and vaginas on 03.13.16 at 8:58 pm

DELETED

#54 Big Dipper on 03.13.16 at 8:59 pm

“The RRSP changes were announced by Trudeau during the 2015 campaign. — Garth”

———————————————-

Thanks for your response, but let’s put it in context. The Home Buyers Plan, (allows for RRSP borrowing for house DP’s for first time buyers), has been in existence since 1992.

The Libs have indeed expanded the eligibility rules for RRSP HBP borrowing, but have kept the maximum at $25000.

The Conservatives run on an election promise to increase the HBP borrowing limit to $35000.

My statement, that you refuted, is correct. Man up, leftie. — Garth

#55 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.13.16 at 9:01 pm

Not even close to recession. — Garth

bingo

US economy strong, unemployment super low, amazing inflation, strong real estate, nothin but net

as I called it

#56 Linda on 03.13.16 at 9:07 pm

So what happens to all that mortgage debt if we have a ‘hard’ landing? Are taxpayers via CMHC on the hook for most or even all of it? Though to be fair, I can’t see everyone who has a mortgage walking away from it. Where would they go? Where would they live?

Canadians have a history of suffering, not walking. — Garth

#57 Notagreaterfool on 03.13.16 at 9:09 pm

Garth…haven’t your spies got a good handle of what moreau’s 1st budget will bring to the housing market?

#58 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.13.16 at 9:13 pm

100 million Americans sitting at home with no job and you still believe those phony Obama numbers.

let’s see, typical household has 25% or 50% of occupants working… US has 66% of ppl working? sounds good.

how many of those one third of people are retirees and kids? lol

doomers so dumb

#59 The Medic on 03.13.16 at 9:19 pm

Garth, I hope you enjoy your birthday tomorrow.

#60 Sally Turner on 03.13.16 at 9:29 pm

Trudeau Liberals have just blown through another 30 billion in a few months, on top of the trillions Canada’s collective governments have borrowed to keep the status quo elite civil servants afloat above the ROC. The elites have borrowed all this money on the backs of taxpayers because they have printed it all from bonds issued and borrowed from ourselves. There is no way this or any government can afford to raise rates, even a fraction, it would blow a hole in every budget and expose the scam. The Trudeau Liberals want to retire first before the bubbles would burst, so wait for the pain to increase and Trudy’s down in the Caribbean before rates are even considered.

#61 Julie K. on 03.13.16 at 9:31 pm

Sitting on an (investment) property in up & coming downtown Gibsons. 2bdrm/1ba secondary suite w/2bd and 1 ba up. New kitchen & bathrooms, original 3/4″ oak hardwood recently refinished. All new windows, roof, doors and private landscaped 9500 sq ft lot zoned for both a secondary suite AND carriage home (dual revenue stream potential). Very solid 1960-era bungalow located on the bus route & 10 mins to the ferry. Lots of room to park the boat or walk to the marina, beaches, restaurants. If you have the luxury of travelling during non-peak traffic (ferry or road) you are downtown in under 90 minutes.

Sold the fam home exactly a year ago this month (North Van). Since April 2015, neighbours have ADDED a kabillion more to their cash accounts for having held on 6-12 months more in what will now be the most infamous rising market in Vancouver RE history. OK, not quite a kabilion more but close @ a stunning $400-500K price appreciation for SFH in the Indian River area in last six freakin’ months. That be a lot of dough left on the table in my books.

So….what to do w/the investment cottage?

Market is heating up here big time on the Sunshine Coast (all the usual reasons cited by local well known realtors Gary Little and Kenan Mackenzie and my own observations). But, keeping Garth’s R.O.N. in mind, we should sell.

To that end, mentioned conundrum to a banker/friend recently who has since put me in touch w/a potential buyer. This couple are “actively looking” in Gibsons. Apparently they have already done a “drive by” and are “interested” to speak w/us further…

Definitely not a greedy person but if I had waited a year to sell on the NV property….

Mulling selling privately or on the open market or even holding and renting.

Peace.

#62 tundra pete on 03.13.16 at 9:41 pm

Much like “Head Smashed In Buffalo Jump” near Ft. Mcleod Alberta. Just as the buffalo did, once the first one went, the rest followed. Kind of like the pics we’ve seen here of the condo pre sales where all the virgins line up with Mom and Grandma.

We have always had shepherds to guard the sheep but any shepherd worth his salt could always lead the sheep to the slaughter. Just like Holmes on homes flogging real estate. I really get a kick out of bidding wars and the rush by the clueless to pay far above asking. Can you imagine those fools in a few months saying WTF was I thinking?

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.16 at 9:42 pm

@#52 P and V
Deleted
*******************************************

Let me guess.

You mentioned male and female reproductive organs , realtors, Harper, banks and Garth in a none too flattering way.

OR you blasphemed ………

#64 Emma Zaun - GreaterFool Unpaid Intern #007 on 03.13.16 at 9:52 pm

Umm, Garth, some of us actually did notice that you didn’t bother to show up until almost 6 today….
meanwhile, we’re all here as usual holding things together pre-blog posting… and then we get your unbelievably ridiculous memo.

So you say that our “non-monetary compensation will be reduced today by one hour, due to Daylight Savings Time reducing the day to 23 hours from 24.”

WTF Garth!!?? We still put in our regular 8 hour shift
while you were AWOL scratching Bandit’s ass!

In thanks, we will be working to rule this week. No more shredding of those naked selfies that Mark and Smoking Man send you every day – you’ll have to view and dispose of them yourself.

So enjoy, you SOB boss-prick from Hell or Mississauga, whichever is worse!

Emma Zaun
Shop Steward
CUPE
(Canadian Union of Peelers and Exhibitionists)

#65 Ray Wegner on 03.13.16 at 9:52 pm

Garth you keep saying immigration isn’t driving up the cost of housing. So what about this recent article in the Vancouver Sun, which contradicts your position? http://www.vancouversun.com/immigrants+help+drive+metro+vancouver+housing+market+study/11782608/story.html?__lsa=c027-f3f7

#66 IM in C on 03.13.16 at 9:52 pm

The political party that stands by and watches the housing market collapse/implode will be the political party that will not get re-elected for another generation. I think T2 knows that. So, will there be the same maneuvers as 2008-9? There will be the same and more. Things like interest only payments, or even pressure on the banks not to foreclose, etc. Don’t kid yourselves.

#67 Ex-Cowtown on 03.13.16 at 9:53 pm

I don’t think that there are any practical limits to the naivete and stupidity of the T2 government. When T2 decided to follow Obama’s lead and start to move against fraccing it shows how scientifically ignorant and ideologically blindered he and his views are. Around 95% of the wells (not including oil sands wells) drilled in Alberta are fracced and have been for the past 20 years. The boy-King in hopelessly out of touch with reality and loves the sound of the cameras clicking.

Watching T2 and Obama together was like watching Dumb and Dumberer II: The Next Generation and Clueless all rolled into one. They are the Kardashians of politics. Infinitely entertaining to watch, but vacuous.

So, with so little on the ball, is there nothing that T2 will do to miss a chance to miss a chance? Probably not. Look for 40 year amortizations.

#68 salonist on 03.13.16 at 9:56 pm

#43 cto

when you walk into the art shoppe and pick out furniture, you don’t look at the price

when you go to harry rosen,life is such a joy

you have your own table reserved for lunch at the 4 seasons 365 days

if you ever experience just one of the above
then you’ll understand why the table saw was at the curb

#69 This is Wonderland on 03.13.16 at 10:01 pm

CanadaLand March 13th Episode #125.

http://canadalandshow.com/podcast/house-horny

Jesse Brown interview Garth Turner on Trudeau, Harper and the Canadian Media.

#70 V on 03.13.16 at 10:10 pm

US Debt to income was $1.20 for every dollar earned in 08′

#71 West Coast on 03.13.16 at 10:11 pm

Up, up and away……………!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-real-estate-1.3487828

“When it comes to the cities that matter most to the world’s wealthy, Vancouver is nowhere to be seen.” (sad but true)
“There is no direct correlation between the locations where the wealthy are normally resident and the locations their advisors view as being most important to them (financially).”

#72 Brazil ex-pat on 03.13.16 at 10:16 pm

Every other country has foreign buyer rules. Except Canada. My post stands.

Incorrect, obviously. — Garth

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Correct….as pointed out by BC’s own media. Unless they have it wrong with the countries they are pointing out in the report. And there are many many more countries that do it. Canada does not….

http://www.cknw.com/2015/05/12/75817/

You stated Canada was the only one. Obviously incorrect. — Garth

#73 45north on 03.13.16 at 10:31 pm

To do so would push house lust even higher at the same time the economy weakened. It would propel personal debt levels far beyond where Americans blew themselves up. It would increase risk for an entire generation of people who have over-reached to buy in the last five years. And it would turn a potential soft landing into a giant crater full of debris and heartache. So, won’t happen.

I was at a function last week and listened to David McGuinty, MP Ottawa South. He’s just not thinking about housing. So where I think the housing market should be the focus of the new government, it isn’t. Let’s see the budget next week. for the rest of 2016, economic stimulus and global warming will be the focus. Vancouver market is now hitting 50% increase year over year. This is unprecedented, it’s a total disaster but it’s the sort of disaster that can be ignored. This year.

#74 John in Mtl on 03.13.16 at 10:38 pm

#55 Linda on 03.13.16 at 9:07 pm

“So what happens to all that mortgage debt if …”

Canadians have a history of suffering, not walking. — Garth

History might be a witness but Canadians surely have changed, no? How many (of the mostly young, entitled, millenial moisters variety) will walk because they just don’t care about debt and its consequences when they can no longer pay up?

Hardy any. Because they can’t. — Garth

#75 Bram on 03.13.16 at 10:40 pm

#42 Jan Hammer on 03.13.16 at 8:08 pm
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JzZ49gQI_IY
Yes 416 bungalows will be 100k again, enter the time machine

That’s great! Thanks Jan, you took me back 30 yrs.
For a moment I was back in high school!
Hadn’t heard that song in ages.

Bram

#76 Fed-up on 03.13.16 at 10:41 pm

I’ve come to the fear and perhaps conclusion that as long as we have 300,000 + new Canadians entering each and every year that qualify for 95% financing within months of arrival, 2% mortgage interest rates with lax or non-existent lending standards, a do-nothing and bloated public sector joke of an economy that now totally relies on the the FIRE sector and our government behind it and supporting it all, there will be no meaningful correction in real estate in this country. If $27 oil didn’t immediately and completely obliterate Alberta, then all bets are off. I am totally blown away on that alone.

Sorry guys, it may very well be different this time and as much economic sense that Garth along with many others on this blog have been making for the past 8 years, we were and continue to be wrong, so wrong.

It’s about time we admit it.

#77 Freeman on 03.13.16 at 10:41 pm

Garth let me tell you and everyone else on this site what’s happening, what is going to happen, and the shit that’s going to hit the fan pretty soon.

An economy has a great time, where people are borrowing like mad to buy luxury houses and luxury things because they think that times will only get better and better (that’s the 2005 to 2007 period in the USA.)

Then a shock hits the system and suddenly those ‘GOOD TIMES’ just vanish, and people all realize that it was just an illusion.

So people decide to stop spending and live within their means. But the problem is governments and businesses still have a ton of debt and they need consumers to spend like crazy like they were doing in the 2005 – 2007 period, they need income to pay their debt interest loads. So governments all around the world lower their interest rates to zero, and then to negative, then to WAY BELOW NEGATIVE (full percentage points below zero), and some even start placing penalties on citizens for not spending enough. (Yes, that will be coming soon in the EU.)

What this does is it creates no new jobs, no net wealth, it just kicks the can down the road a little bit longer. It also gets a lot of consumers to load up on debt, buying houses and luxury cars that they otherwise could not afford. We see that now where a sales clerk who makes minimum wage at Walmart is driving a new Audi and has just bought a million dollar condo in Toronto.

What happens next is right out of a horror movie. A big hedge fund goes belly up, or a bank suddenly misses a huge debt payment, and the next day one of the EU countries declares a ‘BANK HOLIDAY’. This holiday was supposed to go for a week, but ends up morphing into a multi-year bank shutdown, spreading to other counties as well.

Banks all over the world are worried that they won’t get their money back so they start demanding higher interest on their loans, and it is a snowball effect; higher rates results in more defaults, which in turn result in even higher rates. Before you know it, after just one year the average mortgage rates at the bank is now 10% or higher.

If you don’t believe such a thing is possible then go to Ukraine for a week, and see how much it costs to borrow down there: TRY 20% on for size.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-06-26/ukraine-faces-mortgage-crisis-on-top-of-war

#78 Sheane Wallace on 03.13.16 at 10:44 pm

Unless I’m wrong. In which case, take cover.

———————
GT, with all due respect I think we have already far past the point of no return with respect to the debt. There is no way out of this other then destruction of the loonie.

In no way would BOC increase rates, on the contrary.
Inflation would certainly wipe out the savers and people on fixed income. Sports shirts (non impressive) at $100, average shoes (also non impressive) at $ 150 were the prices that I noted this weekend. Organic apples at 4.99/pound. The inflation is already here.
It is simply not reported.

There might be stabilization but at price levels of the stuff that matters 4-5 multiples in nominal values from now. Houses probably at 1.5-2 times current nominal valuations as the idiots will keep pumping before it all (the house of cards/cardboard) comes down .
Loonie at 0.20-0.25 USD? Not impossible.

I am staying away from anything priced in CAD. Except some shiny staff. God bless the Queen! I like her in nominals of 5, 50 and 200.

#79 sockeye sam on 03.13.16 at 10:45 pm

#57 WaldMark Satantoon

Doomer? Far from it. In 1990 when I bought this shack I new it would hit 3 mil. Now I know it’s about to hit 6 mil by 2020. Doomer I’m not.Former risk taker I am.

#80 Reality Check on 03.13.16 at 10:46 pm

#45 Wallflower

Not a chance. Especially in 604.

#81 conan on 03.13.16 at 10:50 pm

That chipmunk is going “Full Captain” on the rum. Word is he is a chick magnet.

#82 Sheane Wallace on 03.13.16 at 10:53 pm

#76 Sheane Wallace

BTW GT, I know you hate gold bugs (I am not one) but I would not be surprised (give it 2-3 years) for us to be reading very different views on precious metals on this very blog.

When the whole scale of the insanity that we live in becomes evident.

The precious metals story, no matter how ridiculous, is much more believable than what I am seeing in the Canadian real estate markets in the last 6-7 years (since the gamble to prevent the total meltdown in 2009)

Cheers.

#83 Sheane Wallace on 03.13.16 at 10:57 pm

#78 sockeye sam on 03.13.16 at 10:45 pm
#57 WaldMark Satantoon

Doomer? Far from it. In 1990 when I bought this shack I new it would hit 3 mil. Now I know it’s about to hit 6 mil by 2020. Doomer I’m not.Former risk taker I am.

————————–
Sadly you would most likely be proven right.

Not that 6 millions of confetti would the worth much.
In terms of absolute valuations (purchasing power) we already passed the peak real estate. It is all down from now in real values. Up in nominal.

#84 Siva on 03.13.16 at 10:59 pm

US admits more than a million immigrants, 65k high income earning H1B temporary workers and thousands of L1 transferee etc every year. None of that stopped 2008. Similarly 300k new immigrants will not save Canadian RE.

#85 Big Dipper on 03.13.16 at 11:00 pm

#63 Emma Zaun – GreaterFool Unpaid Intern #007

“In thanks, we will be working to rule this week. No more shredding of those naked selfies that Mark and Smoking Man send you every day – you’ll have to view and dispose of them yourself.

So enjoy, you SOB boss-prick from Hell or Mississauga, whichever is worse!”

————————————————–

You go Sister Emma! All unpaid overworked Interns stand shoulder to shoulder with you.

Together we stand to defeat the bloodsucking capitalists and their parasitic enablers in Mississauga and beyond.

Solidarity Forever!

#86 Bank of Millennial on 03.13.16 at 11:10 pm

I would advise at this time to short the Canadian banks but I realize a lot of mortgages held by the banks are insured by, the only people stupid enough to take on that moral hazard (we the people.)

They’re selling us our own hides at a premium while were responsible for all the risk.

This all sounds familiar.

#87 sockeye sam on 03.13.16 at 11:13 pm

#82 Sheanne Wallace

That’s what they we’re trying to tell me every year since 1993 ,your exact words. Sure glad I told them all to F$%k off. It’s all up hill from here. What have I got to lose.?She’s been paid off for years.

#88 Hotdogs from Heaven on 03.13.16 at 11:20 pm

Did nobody see this story on the cbc about people in Toronto freaking out because of the increase in closing costs on their new condos in a crappy part of Scarborough?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/scarborough-condo-closing-costs-1.3486212

What exactly are these people going to do when their maintenance goes up? Or their property taxes? Or their insurance premiums? Or especially their mortgage rates?

It has people actually begging their family and friends for cash for the down payment.

“We have met the enemy and he is us” – Pogo.

#89 understood by few on 03.13.16 at 11:22 pm

@brazil ex-pat

France, Spain, Italy, Argentina, Brazil…

Only need one example to refute your statement. I’ve provided 5.

#90 Stop it WolfMan on 03.13.16 at 11:25 pm

Garth stop selling your fear! R/E won’t come down in TO, it’s the new norm. Could of should of make alot of money.

#91 Larry Laffer on 03.13.16 at 11:31 pm

@#23Brazil ex-pat
“And that folks is why Canada is the only country in the world with stoooopid RE prices”

Never been to Australia, have you? Housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne (and to a lesser extent, Brisbane and Adelaide) are defying any logic and completely unconnected from the underlying fundamentals (which are not so great – the Australian economy is in a somewhat similar situation than Canada’s). Seeing many under-construction CBD properties marketed as “equity” instead of simply “housing” or “condos” is a worrisome trend.

#92 preet89 on 03.13.16 at 11:36 pm

Justin at least has the courage to tackle the big mess that the previous government handed him. He ideas are revolutionary. No other country leader is being talked/tweeted/liked more than our leader.

It is easy to sit on the sidelines and be a critic but he has stepped up to set things right.

Over 1/2 the people voted for him. Justin and Donald Trump will fix North America!

A majority of voters chose another party. — Garth

#93 Chris on 03.13.16 at 11:36 pm

House hunting in 905 with family these couple of weeks. Market is white hot. Now eith the liberals in power and all things immigration going quite liberal, don’t think we will see a correction in housing anytime soon. Not in Toronto at least. It will just keep rising and sadly people’s living standards will continue to deteriorate with impossibly long and congested commute to work. People do need to move out of the GTa to be able to afford a decent house. That trend should already start happening if only big Canadian companies begin to branch out their offices into smaller metropolitan areas. Canadian businesses are pretty stubborn so may not happen. US businesses did that but again in the US there were many more choices of decent medium sized cities. Anyway, the same thing happened in US as the super big cities are losing people to medium sized cities because people want better living standards. Never understood why people would want to live in New York unless they make millions. People in the 905 are excited about 407, which charges what 30 cents per km, which is about 60 cents every minute. That says plenty about what kind of city we live in.

#94 Sheane Wallace on 03.13.16 at 11:36 pm

#86 sockeye sam

Lottery tickets have expiration dates. Especially in Canada,

Cash it to something tangible, far away from this place, for your own and your descendant’s sake.

#95 MF on 03.13.16 at 11:39 pm

#155 Damifino on 03.12.16 at 4:30 pm

*from yesterday*

Garth advocates balance which I agree with. However, I am very bearish with respect to GTA housing. I think that there will be a steep correction and not a slow melt as Garth suggests.

I am also increasingly pessimistic about global equity markets. I’m not a doomer per se, nor a goldbug stocking ammo and canned food, but I think there will be a crash (not correction) at some point. The reason is I believe central bankers are largely responsible for the bull market of the last 7 years and now they are 1) totally out of ammo with emergency/negative rates and trillions of dollars of debt and 2) obviously becoming more and more desperate. Something just has to give. All we hear about is “stimulus” talk. Take last week as an example when Draghi said he would drop interest rates further and embark on more QE because the economic situation in Europe was just that bad…yet the market went up. To me that means the market is warped and basically on life support.

#52 Penises and vaginas on 03.13.16 at 8:58 pm

Now this comment I wanted to see.

MF

#96 Sheane Wallace on 03.13.16 at 11:41 pm

#86 sockeye sam

3 mil buys fantastic Vila in Spain, much better place then Vancouver (around 300 k) + yearly income of over 100 k from dividends alone, without touching the capital.
Free health care, everything within reach. What else do you need? The wine free ta the restaurants, tomatoes at .50 cents, not $ 7 per kilo.

Barcelona is a far better place then Vancouver.

#97 Frank on 03.13.16 at 11:41 pm

Morgan Stanley is now saying that US Fed rate won’t step up again until Dec. Interest rates are the only thing that are going to affect this housing market and that’s not happening any time soon. Don’t expect this government to need to step in let alone questioning if they would.

#98 preet89 on 03.13.16 at 11:44 pm

It’s infuriating reading the posts and saying to myself “these wrinklies just don’t get it!”. Everyone can afford what they own now or they wouldn’t be able to get it. So what??????!!!! It’s just envy and jealousy that you oldies have because you didn’t have cell phones, nice cars, nice homes when you were in your 20’s. It’s time to accept the NEW reality people!!

We DO HAVE the internet now – hello!! Did people hang on to their horse and buggies saying that these new wheeled things won’t catch on? Buzzzzz…. NO!

I think the oldies can handle change when it takes 40 years to happen but it is just beyond their grasp of comprehension when things change every 2 years.

The senior’s homes are going to be a pretty funny place in 10 years for sure.

#99 MF on 03.13.16 at 11:50 pm

#86 sockeye sam on 03.13.16 at 11:13 pm

1993-2016 =/ 2016-2039

Yeah right. The central bankers have no ammo left. Last thirtyish years of falling interest rates, can kicking, and rising asset values are unlikely to be repeated. Your best bet is a value flatline and gradual erosion from ever rising maintenance costs and inflation/taxes.

MF

#100 Sebee on 03.14.16 at 12:07 am

(a trillion is a thousand billion, which is a thousand million)

Hilarious on so many levels. So no trillionaires are reading the blog? Is that why we needed this? Or because no one can grasp how much money that is? A movie idea….spend a trillion in 30 days without buying any assets and you get 5 more to keep. Sounds like fun.

#101 Angela on 03.14.16 at 12:10 am

I can picture the cartoons to go with these B.C. foreign ownership studies being initiated. Person eating salad covered in chocolate sauce and marshmallows going, “I don’t know why I can’t lose weight.” Vancouver: “I don’t understand why prices keep going up,” while B.C. household savings are negative, debt is exploding and cash advance transactions have increased by 50%. Yeah, I don’t know. Who are these people…?

#102 Siva on 03.14.16 at 12:22 am

Never buy a condo, it’s a scam!

#103 Michael on 03.14.16 at 12:23 am

“Unless I’m wrong. In which case, take cover.”

Rule #1: Garth is right
Rule #2: Garth counsels prudence pay attention
Rule #3: When Garth says #2, see #1
Rule #4: Garth predicts lower house prices for years and has not been right (yet)
Rule #5: When Garth says #4, see rule #2.

#104 sockeye sam on 03.14.16 at 12:28 am

#98 MF
Now that I do agree with.Inflation ,maintenance,and taxes will be the Achilles heal.But the ace up my sleeve is to defer the taxes and go for the ride to 2020.Pay the back taxes and the 1% or what ever it is and shove another few mil in my pocket.Then sit back watch the big machine mow it and then some main lander’s going to have a nice summer home.Spain? I don’t think so. I need a place with a tropical coral reef for scuba diving.And flat ground for a landing strip.

#105 Brazil ex-pat on 03.14.16 at 12:28 am

Unlike Canada, this is what they do in Brazil amid govt corruption. How many Canadian politicians and bankers have gone to jail? Zero?

https://www.rt.com/news/335474-brazil-protest-president-million/?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=aplication_chrome&utm_campaign=chrome

#106 Newbie on 03.14.16 at 12:33 am

Seems illogical to me to go down to 0% downpayment and 40 years amortization period after the recent tightening on min downpayment requirements

#107 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.14.16 at 12:33 am

#99 Sebee on 03.14.16 at 12:07 am

brewster’s trillions!

#108 Fortune500 on 03.14.16 at 12:36 am

I think your wrong Garth. I wish I didn’t, but the government will do everything in its power to keep this inflated. With the majority of Canadians benefiting from this, no ‘elected’ government would allow it to end on their watch. We are past the point of return. Savers and renters have lost. Go live your lives somewhere where free markets and self-sufficiency is rewarded. It isn’t Canada.

#109 Reminder on 03.14.16 at 12:55 am

Garth, you probably know that debt to disposable income in the Netherlands rose to 240% a couple of years ago. So there’s plenty of ‘room’ for Canada to get there… :)

#110 Leo on 03.14.16 at 1:24 am

Garth is correct about the government not stepping in to pump up the market if it crashes. The anger over foreign buying has reached a level where people will welcome a decline, and the govt has been fighting for years to contain the market by tightening up CMHC. They won’t reverse that so soon.

And isn’t everyone already tired of Victoria Real Estate update with her ancient graphs from 2010? Why keep posting the same crap?
If anyone wants to know what’s going on in Victoria, the place to go is househuntvictoria.ca

#111 Damifino on 03.14.16 at 1:41 am

#94 MF

“Garth advocates balance which I agree with. However, I am very bearish with respect to GTA housing. I think that there will be a steep correction and not a slow melt as Garth suggests.”

Fair Enough.

I grant that there are valid reasons for believing a crash is a possible outcome in the GTA and in YVR. There are days when I think so myself. But ‘crash’ is a nebulous term. One man’s correction might be another man’s crash and vice versa. It depends largely on one’s risk tolerance need for preservation of capital.

The point of my post was to clear up the prevailing misconception that Garth is a harbinger of impending rack and ruin for anyone who owns a home. That’s how some people like to paint him. It makes him easier to lambaste when predictions of doom to which he is falsely attributed fail to materialize.

Honest examination of the things Garth actually says reveals a disavowal of the ‘collapse’ stuff. He directs most of his warnings at the foolishly overextended and the dream chasers financed through the bank of Mom.

Those with a sliver of equity and mountain of debt will be the ones using the word ‘crash’ when the market corrects by 15% then takes a decade to recover.

#112 BS on 03.14.16 at 1:44 am

sockeye sam on 03.13.16 at 10:45 pm
#57 WaldMark Satantoon

Doomer? Far from it. In 1990 when I bought this shack I new it would hit 3 mil. Now I know it’s about to hit 6 mil by 2020. Doomer I’m not.Former risk taker I am.

You live in a shack and drive a bus for a living. Are people supposed to be jealous?

#113 Brazil ex-pat on 03.14.16 at 3:13 am

#90 Larry Laffer on 03.13.16 at 11:31 pm
@#23Brazil ex-pat
“And that folks is why Canada is the only country in the world with stoooopid RE prices”

Never been to Australia, have you? Housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne (and to a lesser extent, Brisbane and Adelaide) are defying any logic and completely unconnected from the underlying fundamentals (which are not so great – the Australian economy is in a somewhat similar situation than Canada’s). Seeing many under-construction CBD properties marketed as “equity” instead of simply “housing” or “condos” is a worrisome trend.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Are the houses in Sydney moldy, 80 year old 1200 sq ft pieces of condemned crap going for 2 million in cash? No…didn’t think so.

#114 #6 pathcontrolmonk...almost on 03.14.16 at 4:18 am

…try Blue Rinsers…the Boomer term for the phenom way back when a teen…too funny pathcontrol…you brought a smile to my face…thx.

Again Garth, as long as there is continued job creation and people can afford downpayments/mortgage payments…there will be no end in sight to YVR RE climbing.

As you hint a recession may be coming (and I agree probably by mid-year) it will have to be a job destroying recession in YVR and 416.

Careful what some ask for or cheer on in this blog since the rest of Canada in a no growth/job loss economy.

What happens then to Canadian economy if YVR and 416 fail?

#115 Sally Turner on 03.14.16 at 4:20 am

#76 Freeman

Given that I have cash and the ability to raise more cash cash cash, I’m lovin this idea. Right now savers are treated worse than lice.

“If you don’t believe such a thing is possible then go to Ukraine for a week, and see how much it costs to borrow down there: TRY 20% on for size. ”

Not too long ago I was buying 30 day T Bills and getting 14%. CSB’s were paying 18%. I look forward to those days. It was also a good time to be a private lender, I was renting seconds and thirds at 20%. The wife and I had a very good time with that.

And I think you’re right, the gov’t won’t allow the elites civil servants to feel any pain.

#116 Tony on 03.14.16 at 4:27 am

Re: #19 sockeye sam on 03.13.16 at 6:52 pm

Using Europe’s definition of unemployment today for America. It would peg the unemployment rate in America at exactly 23.1 percent.

#117 Greg on 03.14.16 at 5:50 am

Happy B-Day Garth!

#118 The real Kip on 03.14.16 at 6:59 am

“It would propel personal debt levels far beyond where Americans blew themselves up.”

The Americans? Best leave them out of it. Debt levels are rising fast for our southern friends. Credit card debt alone is nearing 1-trillion as you already know. Car and student loans? Don’t even go there. Americans are no better off than we are.

#119 Dual Citizen In Canada on 03.14.16 at 7:55 am

For all us dual citizens on the blog. Here is a ray of hope:

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/taxes/relief-may-be-on-the-way-for-people-who-pay-tax-on-both-sides-of-the-border

#120 TurnerNation on 03.14.16 at 8:34 am

What’s this the Socialist Republic of Ontario is looking into a Minimum Income? Work as little as you please, watch TV and breed and the. Govt will top up your income? Will give rise to morons and imbeciles. Maybe that’s the point.

#121 Vangrrl on 03.14.16 at 8:45 am

#95
Barcelona is lovely and a more inspiring city than Van, true- but nothing beats BC’s mountains/nature. Nothing.

Greatest fool of the day:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/realtor-misrepresents-square-footage-1.3487389

#122 Bobby13 on 03.14.16 at 8:49 am

Its like super slow motion watching and waiting for the housing to crumble here, confidence and rule changing must be running thin. Great wit Garth I find myself only reading the posts where you reply now..

#123 D.A. aka Devil's Advocate on 03.14.16 at 9:02 am

Rents in Kelowna have risen dramatically. There are now properties that can be bought and carry themselves based on the rental income, including the downpayment. Haven’t seen that in quite some time. Unfortunately, when that happens it heightens demand from both investors and renters who turn to home ownership. That demand pulls prices up.

Bidding wars in sales and rentals. CRAZY.

I was expecting it to correct but it just keeps on keepin’ on.

Maybe it’s a “New Order”. Certainly the banks are more in charge than they’ve ever been.

To quote Thomas Jefferson “I fear banking institutions are a greater threat to our liberties than standing armies”.

#124 learningfromyou on 03.14.16 at 9:58 am

Thank Garth for this post

A few things learned from this blog and other sources.

1-The gov. will never provide solutions to your personal financial problems.

2-You should take responsibility for your own financial decisions.

3-You better learn something about finances, Garth, Anthony Robbins, Benjamin Graham are people that have taught me good things.

Even Robert Kiyosaki and Trump (also considering some of their problems) have provided me good concepts to be used in the investments and life.

I’m just an student in comparison to many on this blog, just a junior in investments, because of that I do not comment a lot or I could mislead people with possible wrong advises.

I keep reading, and learning.

#125 Elcheapo on 03.14.16 at 10:04 am

“A majority of voters chose another party. — Garth”

Garth, with respect, in our system a majority pretty much ALWAYS picks another party. The only exceptions I can think of was 1984 and 1956? Also, I think YOU only won a majority once? 1997?

#126 Herb on 03.14.16 at 10:06 am

“My statement, that you refuted, is correct. Man up, leftie. — Garth” (at #53)

And so it is, Garth, totally correct in wording, if not in meaning. Trudeau also announced “sunny ways” the day he was elected, and sure as hell, the sun shone somewhere, some time.

You must have been trained by Jesuits!

#127 Screw You on 03.14.16 at 10:07 am

How could CMHC not predict they were going to face huge roadblocks seeking out info on foreign buyers with stakeholders who are making money on the Toronto Vancouver real estate boom? Even if the CMHC does get the info it needs, it will be years before it reports, and even more years before it does anything. Long enough for JT to reduce down payments and increase amortization again to keep the juice flowing. Face it people, those of you who predicted a Toronto crash should give it up. You don’t know what you are talking about. You fundamentally do not understand the concept of supply and demand in a specialty market. Its good that those of you who tried to cash in on other people’s misery trying to steal their hard-earned properties in a crash are getting screwed over. Keep waiting. I am sure there is an estate sale somewhere out there where a good price can be had.

#128 Brett on 03.14.16 at 10:19 am

I know this article is nearly a week old, but I love the tongue-in-cheek… apparently all our houses will be worth 21 mil by 2040!

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-insane-expectations-driving-the-canadian-housing-market/

#129 poundingsand in Peachland on 03.14.16 at 10:38 am

Sure it could. But it’s doubtful. Everybody should be assuming that whatever a property costs today, it will be worth less in a few years. There are many good reasons for that. Really! you’re too funny

#130 TurnerNation on 03.14.16 at 10:57 am

Gartho and blog dogs cordially invited to A Soiree at South Side Johnny’s in recognition of our forum host’s birthday celebrations?

Bar special $5 glasses of premium rotgut.
The cigarette vending machine is filled, at the ready.

#131 nubbers on 03.14.16 at 11:15 am

Vangrrl @120

Great article in the link. The woman was expecting another greater fool would pay for her retirement, but got caught out by her own foolishness. Karma.

I think it is worth emphasising to anyone thinking of buying in this market, that they probably will be paying for someone else to retire, even without a house price crash. However, with a house price crash, then it would also be at the expense of their own retirement.

#132 For those about to flop... on 03.14.16 at 11:50 am

#52 Penises and vaginas on 03.13.16 at 8:58 pm

Now this comment I wanted to see.

MF

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/love-sex/498603/Vagina-penis-sex-education-rape-Project-Consent-viral-video

/////////////////////////////
Hey MF ,I give you the kiddie version to help you out …

M41BC

#133 sockeye sam on 03.14.16 at 11:57 am

#111 BS

Kinda nice when the table turns. Finally! Been waiting a long time. Oh! And that’s COACH OPERATOR to you.With a pension.

#134 ILoveCharts on 03.14.16 at 11:58 am

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/high+metro+vancouver+real+estate+buyers+commuting+helicopter/11782670/story.html

“Sky Helicopters has now flown about 70 realtors or clients of Concord Pacific — the Vancouver-area developer founded in the 1980s by Hong Kong multibillionaire Li Ka-shing — on tours of the Fraser Valley.

“Usually we take six (Concord Pacific realtors) at a time, flying two of our smaller helicopters in formation,” Westlund said. “In one trip we covered about seven of their developments. They like getting the lay of the land.”

Garth: Are lying to us or is HAM in Helicopters finally coming true?

#135 Bram on 03.14.16 at 12:00 pm

BOOM!
So, the Teranet House Price Index for february dropped today.
These are the changes compared to just one month ago:

victoria 0.91%
vancouver 3.24%
calgary -0.95%
edmonton 0.09%
winnipeg 0.15%
hamilton -0.38%
toronto 0.23%
ottawa -0.36%
montreal -1.17%
quebec 0.67%
halifax -2.89%
canada 0.59%

These price changes are based on re-sale values of the same property being sold multiple times.

Halifax is a shocker, as is Vancouver.
+3.24% in a single month means that if you own a $2M yvr home, on paper, your net worth grew by $65K in a single freaking month.

I wonder if this is the effect of down-payment regulation that kicked in that month.

Bram

#136 Stella on 03.14.16 at 12:04 pm

“5 years from now houses will be worth less than they are today!” You effectively said as much five years ago. Sure the market is unsustainable and yes interest rates will go up, and no I wouldn’t advise anyone to buy now! If your point is that more people should invest their mo ey in your field of interest then okay! Your field of interest is not rock solid and most people know a lot less about it than you do, conversely most people know that they would like to own their home and in simple terms can see themselves beg, borrowing or stealing the mo ey they need to do that. The esoteric knowledge of the market is not something average folk want to understand better. People see the greatest financial fraud ever perpetrated (U. S. Housing bubble and bad loans), and wonder if they could manipulate that market and get trillions of dollars in bail out, how is it that they couldn’t do the same to any other commodity? People gravitate to that which can be expressed in the simplest terms – they want to live in a nice home and feel that they own it, or will own it some day! New studies are showing how quickly immigrants to Vancouver are somehow managing to buy homes at an alarming and almost absurd rate given our crazy prices. There are bound to. E fluctuations in the market and yes, I could see it dropping when interest rates go up, (almost inevitable) but there are so many people coming to Vancouver with money and a dream of owning a house as a safe haven against financial uncertainty in their homeland (if not pending revolutions) that prices are bound to stay high. The average family can’t afford Vancouver but the average well monied person from overseas can. A person who already owns a home in Vancouver will do alright, a person with a high mortgage better be prepared to bail as the rates go up! Housing in Vancouver is now and will e we remain a world wide commodity to be bought and sold by the worlds wealthy. Conversely Vancouver is, and shall remain “home” to many people who either are recent immigrants or once upon a time came from a family of people who emigrated to Canada. A person would do well to find employment and a home in a smaller community that is less affected by this new phenomenon of massive financial influx to Vancouver and the surrounding areas. This is all horrible to many whom have lives in Vancouver or even Canada for any amount of time, and get it is inevitable when we live in a country that lacks the political will to protect and preserve a way of life that the people of Canada (immigrants from all over the world), have come to know and love as home: Canada is for sale and Canadians will suffer for it!

#137 Penny Henny on 03.14.16 at 12:15 pm

In honour of your birthday Garth I’ve gone through the trouble of getting your Birthday horoscope from the Globe.
Hope you like it. Happy Birthday

IF TODAY IS YOUR BIRTHDAY

The message of your birthday chart is that you need to put your ego on hold and learn from those who have been there and done it before you. If you can do that then 12 months from now you will look back and marvel at how far you have come.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/horoscopes/march-14-your-daily-horoscope/article29058397/

#138 sockeye sam on 03.14.16 at 12:27 pm

#115 Tony
Close to 24% unemployment I agree. The communist invasion of North America and the out sourcing of North American jobs will drive unemployment even higher.Just call Telus and ask them if you can speak to anyone in Canada at one of their call centers. I did this last week so I could make the decision before I switched from Shaw. Guess what? You can’t speak to anyone in Canada. All out sourced to India and the Philippines. And people blame the unions. My union wouldn’t allow the invasion of another country to take my job away.”While you were sleeping they came and took it all away”.

#139 Ronaldo on 03.14.16 at 12:28 pm

Came across this web site when preparing my tax info for my accountant. Lots of great information.

http://www.taxtips.ca/calculators.htm

#140 Westvan on 03.14.16 at 12:29 pm

http://www.vancouversun.com/immigrants+help+drive+metro+vancouver+housing+market+study/11782608/story.html?__lsa=c027-f3f7

———-
HAM is real , more and more studies proving what everyone in 604 has known for years.

#141 Albert Einstein on 03.14.16 at 12:30 pm

Happy Birthday to us, Garth!

-Al

#142 hope & ruin on 03.14.16 at 12:42 pm

@ Retired Boomer WI

A while back you posted a response to a millennial whining about how much the boomers screwed up.

You responded with something along the lines of: “here’s the reins kid. don’t screw it up”

Here’s a movie I think you’ll enjoy. Has a similar theme:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_Good_Company_(2004_film)

#143 Nemesis on 03.14.16 at 12:45 pm

#BirthdayBoy!?!… #YouOldDogYou!

http://youtu.be/fuk7pQ7yr1Y

#144 hope & ruin on 03.14.16 at 12:56 pm

#84 Big Dipper on 03.13.16 at 11:00 pm
#63 Emma Zaun – GreaterFool Unpaid Intern #007

You go Sister Emma! All unpaid overworked Interns stand shoulder to shoulder with you.

Solidarity Forever!
__________________________________________
@ Dipper

You stand in solidarity with the Canadian Union of Peelers and Exhibitionists?

#145 Rainbird on 03.14.16 at 12:57 pm

“#101 Siva on 03.14.16 at 12:22 am
Never buy a condo, it’s a scam!”

Why did you say this?

#146 jess on 03.14.16 at 1:12 pm

#3 DreamingInTechnicolour on 03.13.16 at 6:15 pm

The banks always win. Always have and always will.
=======
lending arm underwriting WHOM?
yep,especially when both adviser and investor!
This story was supported by a grant from the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/11
http://www.icij.org/project/world-bank/world-bank-ifc-fund-luxury-hotels

#147 mark on 03.14.16 at 1:22 pm

How Vancouver Is Being Sold To The Chinese: The Illegal Dark Side Behind The Real Estate Bubble

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-10/how-vancouver-being-sold-chinese-illegal-dark-side-behind-real-estate-bubble

#148 Brazil ex-pat on 03.14.16 at 1:26 pm

#120 Vangrrl on 03.14.16 at 8:45 am
#95
Barcelona is lovely and a more inspiring city than Van, true- but nothing beats BC’s mountains/nature. Nothing.

Greatest fool of the day:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/realtor-misrepresents-square-footage-1.3487389
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I see you have never owned a property outside of the concrete jungle of Vancouver and experienced “slime mold” which destroys everything over time. Nothing is like it. Nothing.

#149 Dogmatism for the Dogs on 03.14.16 at 1:28 pm

#109 LEO

As you are a perm-bear on Victoria House Hunt, your have your confirmation bias lenses on when looking at what the federal government might or might not do.

The federal government has committeed itself to supporting the middle class – whether that is actually the case or just spin, that policy framework is out there. The majority of the middle class own, and that is the new government’s electoral base. Clamping down on capital gains for houses, for example, will not fly. Best to clamp down on capital gains for the those ‘rich’ investors who take risks with the stock market.

Letting their electoral base suffer will not fly with the entrenched kenysian economic model of dolling out cash to support anyone and everyone.

The previous federal government sought to tweak the market on the edges after it pumped the prices to where its too scary to come back down. This government will intervene in many of the ways outlined – 40 year mortgages again – to sustain the one sector of the economy that is actually contributing anything to employment. The rest of the economy is in a state of decay but not housing – they will leave that golden goose alone less the unemployment numbers swell.

#150 PR on 03.14.16 at 1:53 pm

6 months after a hike of + 1% and its all over the news that people start to lose their house. Its all about rates now.
Or another view of whats coming , differently, remember Japan real estate the top was in 1992, its not recovered as for today!? Not cool, anyway you look had it.

#151 cramar on 03.14.16 at 1:57 pm

97 preet89 on 03.13.16 at 11:44 pm

It’s infuriating reading the posts and saying to myself “these wrinklies just don’t get it!”. Everyone can afford what they own now or they wouldn’t be able to get it. So what??????!!!! It’s just envy and jealousy that you oldies have because you didn’t have cell phones, nice cars, nice homes when you were in your 20’s. It’s time to accept the NEW reality people!!

——————–

I see you’re back with the same juvenile pabulum! Boomers envy those in their 20s today?? What are you smoking? Trudeau pot?

In my 20s I owned a late-model Mustang, bought a house, and worked in the tech field. No didn’t have a cell phone then, but rarely use one now. I shake my head at those who cannot live without the god they carry in their hand. People today cannot “afford” what they own. Buying on credit is not really owning anything.

Rather I feel sorry for the younger generations that don’t understand life does not consist in material possessions. When you mature, you just might understand this.

#152 45north on 03.14.16 at 2:05 pm

Hotdogs: from your link:

( the condo developers are talking to the buyers ) “We said, ‘No, you don’t want it, walk away.’ They didn’t walk away,” Lapoyan said. “They wanted the unit and we delivered. So now it’s time to pay.”

the CBC did a documentary “The Condo Game”:

http://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2419776936

It is excellent.

In the documentary, lawyer Audrey Loeb talks about the legal complexities of condominiums. My own take is that ordinary buyers don’t have a chance. A buyer would have to hire a lawyer before he bought. Once the condo developers realized they were dealing with a lawyer they would tell the buyer to “walk away”.

#153 Rational Optimist on 03.14.16 at 2:51 pm

134 Bram on 03.14.16 at 12:00 pm

“These price changes are based on re-sale values of the same property being sold multiple times.”

Sold multiple times in a month? How many properties could that be?

Someone asked about Hamilton last week. See here, it’s hit its peak: http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.aspx

#154 Freedom First on 03.14.16 at 2:52 pm

#126 Screw You

Yes. The majority always gets screwed over. The minority always buys low and sells high. This is why the wealthy are wealthy.

It is not rocket science, nor is it personal, Dickhead.

#155 Retired Boomer WI on 03.14.16 at 3:01 pm

#140 Hope & Ruin

I will check out the suggested flick. Not familiar with that one.

On the topic of full disclosure, I made some inquiries with several PR people i know, in both the manufacturing business, transportation, and government (Fed).

New hires today in the Transportation game do not automatically get full healthcare. They will pay generally 25% to as much as 40% if it is even offered. Retirement, no defined benefits any longer. 401-K with match from 2% to as much as 5% of salary. 2& plus profit sharing if any ‘profit.’

Manufacturing positions. Some do not offer any healthcare, or if they di similar % you pay as above outlined.

Gov (Fed). New hires will pay more for the limited defined benefit plan. 5 year vestment. 1% of salary based on high 3 salary years. currently (legislation pending to base this on high 5). Healthcare is cafeteria plan you pay 25% of cost. Figure the typical plan will run $175-240 per pay period. 26 pay periods per year.
401-K matched 1:1 for 1st 3% .50:1 next 2%.

No. Millennial ARE NOT being compensated as well as a percentage of earnings as we Boomers were way back in the late 1060’s through the late 1970’s. However, when you look at our “costs” beginning around 1980 the sharing stuff is very nearly identical.

Consumer ‘stuff’ cars, homes, prices in general HAVE risen with or, even ahead of overall price inflations. This varies a good deal by location.

Taxation (US view). Fed taxes overall have decreased a bit since 2000. State rates, and / or, sales taxes have increased .5% in many places including WI. Property taxes have been increasing at about the rate of overall inflation here.

Wages: have remained relatively stagnant, increasing at about the rate of inflation if that in most areas.

Summary: not a lot of reasons to feel ‘good’ about being a boomer, or Gen X or Gen Y or anything else. The pool of talent vs pool of ‘needs’ appears stagnant. More talent, higher education can be procured for the same base dollar. -so much for the “value” of that pricey education.

Just some observations based on a dozen phone calls to trusted people. Not scientific, reflects mid-west US conditions. PS – Many places HAVE openings.

RB

#156 Smoking Man on 03.14.16 at 3:02 pm

Everything and I mean everything is being chucked at Trump, and he keeps getting more popular, back lash of Political Correctness, and americans Tired of the whiney Social Justice Warriors.

They know he cant deport 12 million illegals and don’t care.

He’s Leading everywhere and tied in Ohio. Wow.

MSM has lost the info war for good.

#157 SWL1976 on 03.14.16 at 3:03 pm

#119 TurnerNation

What’s this the Socialist Republic of Ontario is looking into a Minimum Income? Work as little as you please, watch TV and breed and the. Govt will top up your income? Will give rise to morons and imbeciles. Maybe that’s the point.

————————

Once again you hit the nail on the head there

If only I wasn’t so far away I would quite enjoy a pint of the finest rotgut Southside Johnny’s has to offer

#149 cramar – I’ll second that, and I am not a boomer but a late Gen X’er

Kids today may never understand that a cell phone is not a luxury, but a leash

#158 Rainclouds on 03.14.16 at 3:03 pm

#136 ss “My union wouldn’t allow the invasion of another country to take my job away”

Hey Salmon Boy

If your union was in an industry with competition as opposed to Monopoly service funded by taxpayers with no alternatives. …….your opinion might mean something

Telus has invested billions and hired thousands in Canada. Shaw? Well, thanks for the dough, Jimmy needs it!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/jim-shaws-16000-a-day-pension/article567977/

#159 Rational Optimist on 03.14.16 at 3:07 pm

Nevermind, the methodology is here: http://www.housepriceindex.ca/documents/MethodologyEN.pdf

#160 Gregor Samsa on 03.14.16 at 3:13 pm

“#101 Siva on 03.14.16 at 12:22 am
Never buy a condo, it’s a scam!”

#143 Rainbird on 03.14.16 at 12:57 pm
Why did you say this?

Because it’s true?

Option A: Rent for $950/month, utilities included, no risk.
Option B: Purchase condo (here’s an actual condo for sale in Calgary today):
– condo fees: $500/mo
– property tax: $150/mo
– insurance: $100/mo
– utilities: $100/mo
– maintenance / upgrades: $100/mo (generously low estimate)
– condo total: $950/mo + 25 year mortgage of $1000/mo (double the cost of renting), buying at or near the peak of a massive housing bubble with massive downside risk. Oh and if the roof of your slapped together wooden condo building collapses, you’re liable to help repair it.

Where do I sign up????

#161 jess on 03.14.16 at 3:17 pm

the “models ” as citizens

Monday, 14 March 2016 08:13
Unsure About Socialism? truthout.org

maybe the donald should have a look and see who the real “rapers” are?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/03/honduras-berta-caceres-murder-enivronment-activist-human-rights

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/marinaleda-town-few-police-full-5132215
A town with no police, no crime, little unemployment and the freedom to build your own home on communal land sounds like it should be in a science fiction movie.

chinese workers unrest – they want their paychecks
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/15/world/asia/china-labor-strike-protest.html?_r=0

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/putin-calls-for-russian-withdrawal-from-syria/ar-AAgLmqH?li=AAggFp5&ocid=mailsignout

#162 Misleading Stats on 03.14.16 at 3:35 pm

Immigration has been very consistent at .8% of the population. Highly unlikely it will change much. — Garth

Very misleading. There were no temporary categories 15 years ago. Immigration now a little over 2%. Furthermore, we have a 10 year tourist visa where tourists can buy homes here.

See statscan….

#163 Big Dipper on 03.14.16 at 4:05 pm

#125 Herb on 03.14.16 at 10:06 am

“My statement, that you refuted, is correct. Man up, leftie. — Garth” (at #53)

“And so it is, Garth, totally correct in wording, if not in meaning. Trudeau also announced “sunny ways” the day he was elected, and sure as hell, the sun shone somewhere, some time.

You must have been trained by Jesuits!”

—————————————–

Yes Jesuits – well known purveyors of “Truth”.

GT did not make clear that the Home Buyers Program has existed since 1992. Instead, he made it sound that T2 had just come up with it.

He also “forgot” the mention that our greatest Con artist Harpo was going to increase the HBP amount to $35000 from the current $25000. Typical.

Of course the ditto heads here fall for these tricks every time.

I’ve manned up. How about you?

The HBP has nothing to do with ‘life events’ which is what I referenced as a T2 addition. I guess being a socialist means never having to say you’re sorry. It’s assumed. — Garth

#164 sockeye sam on 03.14.16 at 4:16 pm

#146 Brazil expat.

Who wooda thunk “slime and mold”. It sells. Slime and mold really sells! Beats the hell outa the attached.Next country please!
http://www.boredpanda.com/pollution-china/

#165 generational theft on 03.14.16 at 4:51 pm

for you Millennial Realist

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PJO09fPT1Q

#166 sockeye sam on 03.14.16 at 5:23 pm

WAKE UP
It aint a government anymore it’s an oligarchy. As long as your oligarchy has skin in the game do you really think these prices are going to come down?Not! They’ll eventually buy my slime and mold but it aint going cheap. They’ll pay dearly for my slime and mold.George explains it quite well.R.I.P. George.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5dBZDSSky0

#167 S.Bby on 03.14.16 at 5:29 pm

#136 Sock Sam:
“My union wouldn’t allow the invasion of another country to take my job away”

What about driver-less buses?

My buddy worked for Telus and got outsourced to India at 55. But he’s ok cos he’s got a million dollar+ YVR house.

#168 Bottoms_Up on 03.14.16 at 6:04 pm

#161 Big Dipper on 03.14.16 at 4:05 pm
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First time I read it it came across as how Garth meant it…that T2 changed the rules. Quite obvious really, as most people know it wasnt T2s invention.

I never referenced the HBP. The ‘life changes’ RRSP withdrawals are a pure T2 invention. — Garth

#169 bill on 03.14.16 at 6:19 pm

Happy Birthday Garth!

#170 Man up, leftie on 03.14.16 at 7:13 pm

This tone rings through as white man lecturing a black man, in the South. Ugly as hell.

#171 The HomeMoaner on 03.14.16 at 10:35 pm

If 70% of Canadians start complaining that their house values are dropping, if a correction should ever take hold, the Liberals will certainly find money to transfer to them with while the opposition parties complain that “it doesn’t go far enough”. Tyranny of the majority.