The open house

HAPPY modified

About the same time (2 pm), on the same day (Sunday) in the same town (Oakville), two blog dogs went a-sniffing.

To the historic south part of town near the lake, headed Jay and his squeeze, in their black Range Rover with the golden doodle (Rexy) in the back. Price range: $1.5 million to $2 million – about average for that hood, but less than half the average price of homes to the immediate east. “The tough part,” he reports, “is that there’s, like, only four houses available that we’d even look at. And one’s kinda a beater.” That one’s on at $1.7 million.

Half a dozen clicks to the north, Shaun and his fiancée were also shopping, with a focus on ‘affordable’ towns and row units in the $500,000 range. They mapped out a route between open houses peppered around the sprawling new suburbs splayed across fields once populated with ruminating bovines. As opposed to realtors.

“After going to the open houses today I can officially say that people have lost their minds,” Shaun reports. “Never really noticed it before ‘on the ground’ but it was a zoo everywhere.. Crammed houses, nowhere to put our shoes, no one smiling or saying “hi” back as everyone had a stiff look of concern/competition on their faces, as if they were heading into a UFC match and we were opponents.

“We were also the only one of very few ‘young buyers’ that were not with their parents or grandparents or relatives. Clearly, parents/family need to approve these purchases as I can only assume they are co-signers on mortgages and/or gifting the down payments. Let’s see where this market goes. Madness has ensued and I’ve just witnessed it first hand. Scary. “

Well, it was all too much. Shaun says they’ve now decided to rent a place for $1,800 a month, “and wait this thing out.”

And upscale, downtown Jay?

“Horrible. Hideous. We had to line up to get into two houses, and once inside it was impossible to pick your way through the boots, shoes and mittens thrown on the floor. The agents on duty looked harassed and made sure they called out loudly – ‘if you’re not that interested, don’t take a brochure. They’re expensive.’ Holy crap.”

It gets better.

“So I thought I’d head into the basement of one house (the $1.7 million listing) because it’s a heritage place and you never know what people have done. Glad I did. Knob-and-tube wiring everywhere. Main support beams sawed through on both ends. Lead water pipes soldered into copper, patched into PEC. Holes through the basement walls. Broken stairs, no handrail, bugs in the corners. No women went down there, of course. Two guys who did but neither had ever heard of knob-and-tube and thought it was a great house. We’re all doomed.”

You bet. When sellers don’t even try to prep or repair houses for the market, when realtors routinely overprice listings yet open houses are thronged, you know supply and demand are seriously out of whack. You should know the consequences, too. As mentioned here days ago, there’s a scant 41-day supply of houses in the GTA, a 51-day supply in Vancouver and yet a 440-day supply in Montreal. (By the way, here are the supply-days in a few other markets – Winnipeg, 173; Calgary, 157; Saskatoon, 107; Victoria, 96.)

In the GTA and YVR owners aren’t selling for fear of having to buy back in, or missing more gains. Reduced inventories lead to frenzied buyers (especially where the specter of Chinese bidders is raised), bidding wars (fueled by 2.5% money) and new price plateaus. The longer this goes on, the greater the systemic risk, the worse the correction. And so we’re reminded of the raison d’etre for this blog. The greater fool. The fool who follows.

In markets where there’s a reasonable whack of houses available, prices are under control. Where new listings are tumbling onto the market, prices are static or falling. So it’s an easy argument to make that supply, not demand, is the immediate problem. We should be worrying a lot more about ultra-low interest rates and buyer incentives (like those announced in the last BC budget) than what some rich Chinese dudes may be doing to the demand side of the equation.

Of course, nobody gets that. Right now at least two levels of government and a plethora of public agencies are burning through mountains of taxpayer cash trying to figure out how to quantify foreign buyers. CMHC is leading the charge, working with eight agencies, including the CRA, Fintrac, the Bank of Canada and provinces like BC, to define what a global buyer is, then figure out how to count ‘em.

It’s useless. Dangerous, even. A government vendetta on non-resident (Chinese) buyers, taxing them punitively, might stem the flow of that investment, be a huge media and political event, kill speculation, precipitate a rapid outflow of capital, tip a market drowning in risk and lead to the kind of hard landing which would decimate every recent, over-sexed, mortgage-pickled buyer in Vancouver – 95% of whom are locals. Great outcome. Is that what the house-horny want?  Fine. Then keep whining.

By the way, no yellow peril in Oakville on Sunday.  Just the usual kind.

206 comments ↓

#1 Randy Randerson on 03.07.16 at 6:23 pm

No Yellow Peril, just the usual Dumb Canucks.

#2 Love my Kia on 03.07.16 at 6:25 pm

Police are now looking into foreign buyers,

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-foreign-housing-1.3479247

#3 Chopper on 03.07.16 at 6:28 pm

Where is the weed, I voted for TrueDough so I can smoke my troubles away. I am disappoint in Just-in.

#4 Tripp on 03.07.16 at 6:28 pm

What about the supply in Ottawa? Are we not worth mentioning or smarter than the rest of the country?

#5 jay on 03.07.16 at 6:30 pm

There goes the inheritance, people have a chance to move up in the world and they blow it all on a house.

#6 JSS on 03.07.16 at 6:32 pm

Know what, let people fall down the financial cliff and spend the rest of their remaining lives in debt. That’s their problem.

Some create an outgoing cash flow of debt, others create an incoming cash flow of equity. I know I’d rather own common shares of, say RBC, than be owned by RBC.

I think time brings maturity, and when that first white hair shows up in the whiskers when you look in the mirror in the morning. This is when you begin to think where the money is going to come from when you’re too old to work. and too tired.

Thank God for growing dividends, and dumb people.

#7 Bill Grable on 03.07.16 at 6:33 pm

Is there an award for writing?

This was a lyrical, pointed indictment of Canadian Real Estate.

Elegant. Lethal.

Required reading, I would say.

#8 Maybe on 03.07.16 at 6:37 pm

What is the exit strategy for the yellow peril markets like Vancouver? Either the problem (foreign money, no residents or tax payers) or it’s not, as per Garth (95 percent local driven, no land value trickle down). Either way, what happens when the party’s over?

Half the workforce is retiring in 15 years, with no equivalent wages and tax base to replace it.

What is the exit strategy?

#9 Retired Boomer WI on 03.07.16 at 6:39 pm

WARNING!!!

Buying Real Estate at greatly inflated prices, at temporarily decreased interest rates IS hazardous
to your financial health!!!

Don’t believe it…. then buy at your Peril idiots welcome in Bankruptcy Court later

#10 David Lee on 03.07.16 at 6:44 pm

“It’s useless. Dangerous, even. A government vendetta on non-resident (Chinese) buyers, taxing them punitively, might stem the flow of that investment, be a huge media and political event, kill speculation, precipitate a rapid outflow of capital, tip a market drowning in risk and lead to the kind of hard landing which would decimate every recent, over-sexed, mortgage-pickled buyer in Vancouver – 95% of whom are locals. Great outcome. Is that what the house-horny want?”

Yes, as a Vancouverite who is not “house – horny”, that’s exactly the hard landing I want to see happen! As a law abiding, tax paying, debt-free professional who saves, invests and doesn’t live beyond his means, that’s exactly what I want to see happen to the kool-aid drinking, debt binging, entitled ones.

A reset is required and the sooner it happens, the better!

#11 Chaddywack on 03.07.16 at 6:45 pm

I really think that what is happening at open houses right now should meet some sort of DSM-5 Mental Illness criteria………………

I’ve never seen such insanity…..people at work are getting into bidding wars. One coworker owns a West Van house free and clear (about $3 million) and apparently has now mortgaged it almost fully to buy two houses in Vancouver in the last 3-4 months. He said to me that he felt sorry for my generation, but offered me a “deal” on the rent (as long as it at least covered his mortgage)

People can say it’s all Chinese, but I know a LOT of locals who have bought multiple houses and condos in the last 12-18 months….that has to account for something!

#12 Surprized on 03.07.16 at 6:46 pm

This is not going to end well for many. The other day I was on my way home, I live in a well to do area of estate homes and high end country homes and to my surprize there was a large advert for a payday loan place, promising quick cash. I was shocked, I have lived here for many years and have never seen advertising like this in my neck of the woods. I guess there must be a need in high end areas for quick cash, which tells me people are propped up to their eyeballs in debt and having trouble making ends meet. I took this as a sign, literally that people are walking a very dangerous debt tightrope, even in well manicured estate homes.

#13 Grey Dog on 03.07.16 at 6:49 pm

A Government vendetta on non resident buyers would in essence lead to chaos / meltdown of real estate, really Garth? All these months you have said the current bubble areas were due to locals breaking into local Mom and Dad,s retirement savings.

Read hsrder. Move your lips. You’ll get it eventually. — Garth

#14 pathcontrolmonk on 03.07.16 at 6:50 pm

Never been to Oakville, but can’t be all bad if they do have 3 KIA dealerships!

#15 Okanagan Man on 03.07.16 at 6:57 pm

Spring market is on fire in Kelowna ! And no, you can’t blame it on off-shore Chinese money.

#16 Brian Ripley on 03.07.16 at 7:00 pm

“…people have lost their minds,” Shaun

Clearly when looking at my 6 big city chart of SFD prices, Vancouver and Toronto prices are counter-trend to what is happening elsewhere in Canada:

http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html

I include a plot on the chart of the combined average sum price of a Vancouver, Calgary & Toronto condo which is currently 36% (no typo) more expensive than a median priced Montreal SFD.

#17 zee on 03.07.16 at 7:02 pm

Hey

Hong Kong RE market has gone down a lot…why is this. I had been told that Hong Kong was in the same league as New York and London.

#18 Mark on 03.07.16 at 7:02 pm

What is the exit strategy for the yellow peril markets like Vancouver? Either the problem (foreign money, no residents or tax payers) or it’s not, as per Garth (95 percent local driven, no land value trickle down). Either way, what happens when the party’s over?

The explicit speculators (ie: that unfortunate Realtor I quoted the other day who is sitting on “15 to 20 properties”) have their properties and toys taken away from them in foreclosures and bankruptcy. The inadvertent one-property speculators suffer the burden of paying down a mortgage without accumulation of equity for the next 15-20 years. And the non-participants basically, over time, rebalance their portfolios into the housing which has been shed by the bankrupt speculators.

Half the workforce is retiring in 15 years, with no equivalent wages and tax base to replace it.

If they have a balanced portfolio and have been diligently making contributions, shouldn’t be a problem. But there’s likely a significant quantum of boomers who got involved with property speculation (giving adult kids money to buy RE is an example of such) who will simply won’t be able to retire.

Some create an outgoing cash flow of debt, others create an incoming cash flow of equity. I know I’d rather own common shares of, say RBC, than be owned by RBC.

Very well put (but always diversify and balance per Garth’s admonishment, especially since there could be a *lot* of volatility in the banks as the housing price declines really start to heat up!).

#19 Andy on 03.07.16 at 7:04 pm

Only way for the T2 government to avoid the “hard landing” that I can see when rates finally start to move up is to return to 40 or even 50 year amortization rules for mortgages.
Talk about kicking the financial can down the road!!!!

#20 TurnerNation on 03.07.16 at 7:04 pm

What can we say Canadians are brain dead herd animals. Living with socialists in power nationally and provincially, a 2nd World road and public transportation system. 1.7 million to live in Oakville and shop at a bland “Smart Center” and pay $200/mo for basic telephony and communication services, bent over a barrel for Duopolies protected by government and graft.

#21 Frank on 03.07.16 at 7:09 pm

How can CMHC measures ruin foreign investment of capital if it’s not happening to a significant degree in the first place. I feel like narratives have crossed streams.

The U.S. economy collapsed when only 8% of home owners came into distress. When risk builds and markets overreach, it doesn’t take much. — Garth

#22 Russ on 03.07.16 at 7:10 pm

Some help to fight the deficit?

Trudeau was caught at Whistler last week endorsing his snowboard sponsor.

Will the benefits flow to Government of Canada or to T2 directly?

http://www.torontosun.com/2016/03/01/justin-trudeau-hits-the-slopes-at-whistler-over-weekend

The link is from the Sun but the same snowboard photo was in our wee little local on Vancouver Island.

#23 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.07.16 at 7:11 pm

I said nothing about debt, only deficit (for the 10th time), you attacked a claim that was never made.

u can’t expect WalMark to understand. he’s unemployed and has low bar life skills remember? he never studied stats or advanced maths. u have to keep it simple. like ‘what is your favourite colour?’

#24 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.07.16 at 7:15 pm

As mentioned here days ago, there’s a scant 41-day supply of houses in the GTA, a 51-day supply in Vancouver

real estate inventory in vancouver and toronto move like hot cakes. or hot potato

#25 Thelma on 03.07.16 at 7:15 pm

I think its safe to say we have reached Phase Vl on the World Health Organizations pandemic Alert Scale-Efficient and sustained human-to-human transmission. All hope is lost.

Meanwhile here in Cowtown I recently had my rule of 90 condo in Windsor Park for sale. Three months went by not a bite, played the re-list game got a low-ball offer. Said no thanks and took it off the market. So I end up with 200K and change. That’s not going to go to far to help pay the rent especially in today’s shaky market. Can’t live much cheaper. Currently only costing me $670/month in condo fees,electric,property tax and insurance and I’m on the board so no assessments
coming. We’re in good shape.

Was at Tim’s playing roll-up the rim to lose while condo was being shown a couple weeks ago and there at the next table was a really young couple with a set of parents and a Realtor pouring over a map and planning the day of viewings. Sigh….

#26 TurnerNation on 03.07.16 at 7:15 pm

Propaganda worthy of North Korea. Sing songs of praise as you pay the highest bank fees, booze and cigs, gas prices, telephony, air fare, housing costs in the world! :

“Toronto Zoo panda cubs named ‘Canadian Hope’ and ‘Canadian Joy'”

#27 MoneyDriven on 03.07.16 at 7:16 pm

It’s useless. Dangerous, even. A government vendetta on non-resident (Chinese) buyers, taxing them punitively, might stem the flow of that investment, be a huge media and political event, kill speculation, precipitate a rapid outflow of capital, tip a market drowning in risk and lead to the kind of hard landing which would decimate every recent, over-sexed, mortgage-pickled buyer in Vancouver – 95% of whom are locals. Great outcome. Is that what the house-horny want? Fine. Then keep whining.

That is EXACTLY what I want. Let the market crash, those who bought stupidly high get wacked. Those who made 30% gain last year go back to 2015 level and eventually “average person” like me who makes 2.5x the average household income can leave in the city. I want to live here and at this rate my ONLY option is to move to Seattle which i consider daily and slowly getting the wifey on board on that too.

Beside how would it crash the market if they are only 5% of the market :p

#28 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.07.16 at 7:17 pm

hey WalMark do unemployed people like yourself ever retire? lol

#29 Thomas on 03.07.16 at 7:19 pm

Garth, millennial here and I need some advice. I do relatively well (130K salary) and had saved up 35% for a down payment on a $400K condo. I was ready to make the plunge 8 months ago, and then I read your blog. Been on the sidelines ever since.

Now, I’ve got even more dough invested in the markets and yet still not convinced I made the right move. Garth, help me out, here’s the logic:

– condo purchase would be a long term play. I don’t care about short term volatility and price fluctuations that would correct in the next 20-30 years
– plan to live in the condo for a few years.
– when I’m ready to upsize (family) I’ll rent it out, and with 40% down will be cash-flow positive
– last, I really really hate pissing away $2K a month on rent when I could plow it into a mortgage, building equity

Garth, talk me off the cliff?

Why? It’ll be fun to watch. — Garth

#30 Get back Loretta on 03.07.16 at 7:21 pm

Leave it to the country and western folks to warn you against buying them big ol’ houses :

Two Story House
(George Jones)

We always wanted a big two story house
Back when we lived in that little two room shack
We wanted fame and fortune and we’d live life the way the rich folks do
We knew somehow we’d make it, together me and you

With dreams and hopes of things to come we worked and never stopped
Not much time for you and me, we had to reach the top
We bought that big two story house and soon became the envy of the town
With all our work behind us we’d finally settled down

Now we live (yes we live) in a two story house whoa, what splendor
But there’s no love about

I’ve got my story and I’ve got mine, too
How sad it is, we now live in a two story house

The house is filled with rare antiques, there’s marble on the floor
Beauty all around us like we’ve never seen before
There’s chandeliers in every room, imported silks and satin all about
We filled the house with everything but somehow left love out

Now we live (yes we live) in a two story house, oh what splendor
But there’s no love about

I’ve got my story and I’ve got mine, too
How sad it is, we now live in a two story house
How sad it is, we now live in a two story house

#31 Kenchie on 03.07.16 at 7:26 pm

Food for the inter-generational inequality warrior:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/07/revealed-30-year-economic-betrayal-dragging-down-generation-y-income

#32 Epic 2016-03-07 on 03.07.16 at 7:28 pm

Finally.

It’s useless. Dangerous, even. A government vendetta on non-resident (Chinese) buyers, taxing them punitively, might stem the flow of that investment, be a huge media and political event, kill speculation, precipitate a rapid outflow of capital, tip a market drowning in risk and lead to the kind of hard landing which would decimate every recent, over-sexed, mortgage-pickled buyer in Vancouver – 95% of whom are locals. Great outcome. Is that what the house-horny want?

#33 conan on 03.07.16 at 7:35 pm

That dog has the ” I pooped on the bed” look.

#34 Smartalox on 03.07.16 at 7:35 pm

I read that article on the emerging effort to obtain data on real estate purchases, and based on what was described in the article, the parties involved have no clear sense of the information that is available, regarding residential home purchases or how to go about collecting it from all the different agencies, and collating the information from multiple sources.

It’s clear that these information systems are archaic, probably never designed to account for things like a property owner’s mailing address being different from the property address.

Or the property address being different than the civic zoning lot number. In one case cited in the article, owners are asked to check a box on the form (!?!) if they intend to use the property for commercial purposes. Not exactly a high standard of reliability for this information, let alone usability.

We have better traceability of automobiles in this country, than we do for real estate.

Garth, you’re probably right that heaps of taxpayer money is getting thrown at this problem, and without a single point of leadership for the effort, the exercise will degenerate into a pointless mess, but you’re wrong about whether the information is necessary.

It is. And it doesn’t matter who owns these properties (domestic, foreign, race, creed, etc.) but this information is vital to the integrity of the market.

I don’t care if a ‘student’ or ‘homemaker’ pays $1M over asking for a property, but I do care if that property is being advertised as a commercial short-term rental, if PST and GST are being declared on income.

I’d like some assurance that these isolated, antiquated information systems (designed on the assumption that people want to do the right thing) aren’t being exploited by less scrupulous players who choose to ignore rules that are inconvenient to them, or their business models.

#35 Doug t on 03.07.16 at 7:36 pm

Lately I feel like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day

#36 robert james on 03.07.16 at 7:41 pm

When it comes to real estate Location, Location, Location..http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/erosion-leaves-california-homes-teetering-on-edge-of-cliff/62824/

#37 CBC Forum on 03.07.16 at 7:42 pm

Huge forum on CBC discussing what to do with foreign inflows into housing.

We are soooo behind here. The discussion is now how to regulate it rather than wondering if it’s real. We are soooo behind here.

Actually we are way beyond it. There is no regulation possible. Only consequences. — Garth

#38 Mark on 03.07.16 at 7:47 pm

“– last, I really really hate pissing away $2K a month on rent when I could plow it into a mortgage, building equity”

$2k a month in rent on a $400k condo is a 6% “yield”. The only problem is, it gets far worse than that. First, your condo fees are likely going to be around $350-$400 a month, and mostly only cover operational expenses. Bringing that $2k down to $1600/month. 1% of the property’s value annually for long-term maintenance is reasonably typical, so figure another $350/month. Down to $1250/month. A 5% Realtor commission amortized over a 10-year holding period is good for another ~$150/month.

So once you deduct those expenses, you’re already looking at an imputed return on the order of only $1100/month. For a $400k investment. That’s a “yield” of 3.3%.

Oh, and then it gets worse. Property taxes on a $400k condo will probably run you about $2.4k/year. So down to $900/month or a “yield” of 2.7%.

If you held this property as a landlord, additionally, at a 30% tax rate, your after-tax yield would be down to 1.89%.

Don’t know how a 1.89% after-tax yield is even remotely interesting given that you can buy the XIU index fund at a cash tax-paid dividend yield of 3.2% (which is only around 1/3rd of the underlying stocks’ “earnings”).

Bottom line: if you want to ‘build equity’ buy cheap stocks (or indices of them), and rent. Any equity you might ‘build’ in the short term in a housing purchase at peak prices will be swept away when the severely unreasonable house prices dissipate.

#39 paul on 03.07.16 at 7:48 pm

#15 Okanagan Man on 03.07.16 at 6:57 pm

Spring market is on fire in Kelowna ! And no, you can’t blame it on off-shore Chinese money.
————————————————————-
Oh No, you just watch we can blame anyone but ourselves

#40 common sense on 03.07.16 at 7:53 pm

One BIGGGGGGGGGGGG question.

Now that the housing and stock market bubbles have been created and there is SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO much debt WORLDWIDE, how can they EVER raise interest rates without causing a major and I mean historic mess?

Who has the guts to be the one to pull the plug on the party?

Not me, YOU do it. No you do it. No YOU do it.

Until that day comes or until people are so stuffed they cannot buy any more, go any higher, the bubbles get bigger…

The Fed raised in December and will do so again, likely twice, in 2016. — Garth

#41 WallOfWorry on 03.07.16 at 7:57 pm

The US Q4 GDP growth rate came in at an annualized 1%. With a $19 Trillion dollar debt interest rates are not sky rocketing any time soon. This blog will be focusing on this same issue, like it has for the past six years, for many more years into the future. China is providing the economy with stimulus. No doubt we need a real estate correction, but with interest rates remaining beyond normal levels for the forseeable future the calamity that everybody likes to focus on may be a muted whimper. Whatever happened to all of the pundits here forecasting the death of the Canadian dollar and long US $???? ho hum….

Of course US rates will not ‘skyrocket.’ Nobody credible said they would. But they will increase. — Garth

#42 Domino Effects on 03.07.16 at 7:59 pm

“It’s useless. Dangerous, even. A government vendetta on non-resident (Chinese) buyers, taxing them punitively, might stem the flow of that investment, be a huge media and political event, kill speculation, precipitate a rapid outflow of capital, tip a market drowning in risk and lead to the kind of hard landing which would decimate every recent, over-sexed, mortgage-pickled buyer in Vancouver – 95% of whom are locals. Great outcome. Is that what the house-horny want?”

Yes, as a Vancouverite who is not “house – horny”, that’s exactly the hard landing I want to see happen! As a law abiding, tax paying, debt-free professional who saves, invests and doesn’t live beyond his means, that’s exactly what I want to see happen to the kool-aid drinking, debt binging, entitled ones.

A reset is required and the sooner it happens, the better

—————

As a former Vancouverite who fled, and is now seeing the price domino effect in other parts of the province from those flush with cash from their Vancouver house sale, or families seeking affordable housing that are being pushed out, I could not agree with you more. Vancouver’s mania is spreading like a virus throughout BC, pushing up prices everywhere.

Why would we want a slow bleed for years and years, all the while the patient, financially responsible renters have to continue waiting. If real estate prices have ascended for 13 years, misallocating capital from productive investments, why would we want a 13 year slow melt? That is a lost quarter century.

Let’s have the US approach and have a melt down for 3 years, and then rebuild a stronger, more diversified economy that allows contributing canadians to afford homes.

#43 Smoke = Fire on 03.07.16 at 8:04 pm

IF CMHC is now finally looking into foreign buyers then you know it’s a problem. Garth you can keep saying it’s locals propping up the bubble but it’s clearly not.

I just showed it is. — Garth

#44 Sarah on 03.07.16 at 8:05 pm

The best part about choosing to rent rather than own:

http://i.imgur.com/MlOXu.jpg

#45 LifeXpert on 03.07.16 at 8:07 pm

Same story in Mississauga, close to square 1, ravine lot ‘fixer upper’ listed at 650 with line ups on the street. The description read ‘awaiting your personal touch’! The only thing that was awaiting was a wrecking ball and few 40 yard garbage containers as the place could have passed for a halloween haunted house. Imagine 60 year old home with original carpets, bathrooms etc! Don’t see those too often.

#46 unbalanced on 03.07.16 at 8:10 pm

Been reading here for weeks and weeks that foreign buyers don’t make a difference. Now the gov and other agencies are going to look into it. Maybe they can all wear clown suits as this whole debate is a CIRCUS !!!

We now like electing people who reflect our prejudices back to us. Don’t call them leaders. — Garth

#47 old gringo on 03.07.16 at 8:18 pm

As they say”you can’t fix stupid”.
This insanity will correct itself as it always does and there will be a “blood letting” as never seen before.
Then things will return to relative normal if there is such a thing anymore.
Enjoy the ride!

#48 Catalyst on 03.07.16 at 8:18 pm

based on your stories of demand and the fact i dont see much building going on here in gta, i guess it will be another 5 yrs before the correction…

#49 For those about to flop... on 03.07.16 at 8:21 pm

Well,one more week to spring break.
New Mexico, where I’m headed has no sales tax…I think this to discourage talk of the sales mix amongst its citizens.
Also to stop Mark Farquar from visiting…

M41BC

#50 Jfish on 03.07.16 at 8:26 pm

Bought my first house in 1989 for 211,000. Sold in 1996 for 165,000. It can happen again.

#51 Rick on 03.07.16 at 8:29 pm

#8 Maybe on 03.07.16 at 6:37 pm; ” half the work force is retiring in 15 years”. That would make me 65:). I retired at 38, in 2004. Guess I’m not part of that “half”.
Good article Garth; glad I don’t live in over priced Canadian cities.

#52 meslippery on 03.07.16 at 8:34 pm

Bottoms_Up on 03.07.16 at 4:51 pm

#201 meslippery on 03.07.16 at 2:19 pm
—————————–
$1.27 beer? You’re getting ripped off, tap water costs $0.005/litre!!!

Your right just less of a ripoff. No name cola 25 cents a can.

#53 TRT on 03.07.16 at 8:35 pm

post #51 Rick “” half the work force is retiring in 15 years”.

Half the workforce is retiring next year in Vancouver! Every homeowner is a millionaire several times over.

#54 max on 03.07.16 at 8:36 pm

I believe the foreign demand is very low, especially out of China. The Chinese markets are toast. Hong Kong real estate down 80%. The Chinese banks are making it very hard for money to leave. I actually think the opposite will occur with foreigners, they are sellers, not buyers.

#55 Smoke = Fire ... Part 2 on 03.07.16 at 8:39 pm

I have proof from my realtor that foreign money is driving up yyz and YVR. True story below…

He sold a house in Lawrence Park way over asking last month to a Chinese Canadian buyer, all cash deal, no conditions. She said find me 2 more because my friend in China wants to move her money asap. No viewing the properties, she trusts her friend to email whatever mls listings she says are worth buying. Friend transfers money to Toronto and she buys for her. Probably charges her friend some sort of fee or they have some sort of arrangements where both of them profit. Multiply this by a ton in YVR and yyz, Chinese, Iranian , Russian, etc. I bet Putin is buying houses in Toronto too.

Local buyers my butt. Take the blinders off Garth because you sound more foolish all the time. No offense, I enjoy reading your blog. But you’re completely wrong if you don’t think foreign money is a major bubble pumper :)

#56 TRT on 03.07.16 at 8:42 pm

85 homes listed in Vancouver over $10 Million.

All 85 have the number ‘8’ in the asking prices.

How’s that data for you guys? lol

#57 Raisemyrent on 03.07.16 at 8:45 pm

We live in a penthouse at the edge of Yaletown, across from one of the poshest building in town (like Karl Pilkington once said, you want to live IN FRONT of beautiful things), and this weekend, there was a wanker looking type in the lift. Sure enough, there was an open house for a lacklustre unit on the 7th floor (I’d seen it before on MLS when trying to asses how much our place is worth because rent renewal was coming up… And was afraid our owners would sell – rent stayed the same for another year at least btw). There was a lineup outside and the realtor was exuding pride in his expensive suit and shoes (no socks). We were on our way out (dog was holding the fort; he barks at realtors) and it was just so flabbergasting to think for a moment that those people were lining up like beggars for a CHANCE to make the biggest purchase of their lives ON CREDIT. This part of the world has indeed gone mad.

#58 IHCTD9 on 03.07.16 at 8:46 pm

#29 Thomas on 03.07.16 at 7:19 pm
Garth, millennial here and I need some advice. I do relatively well (130K salary) and had saved up 35% for a down payment on a $400K condo. I was ready to make the plunge 8 months ago, and then I read your blog. Been on the sidelines ever since.

Now, I’ve got even more dough invested in the markets and yet still not convinced I made the right move. Garth, help me out, here’s the logic:

– condo purchase would be a long term play. I don’t care about short term volatility and price fluctuations that would correct in the next 20-30 years
– plan to live in the condo for a few years.
– when I’m ready to upsize (family) I’ll rent it out, and with 40% down will be cash-flow positive
– last, I really really hate pissing away $2K a month on rent when I could plow it into a mortgage, building equity

Garth, talk me off the cliff?

Why? It’ll be fun to watch. — Garth
——-

Single income earner? You’re not well enough off to take on 400k worth of debt on a box in the sky. Condos all end up at zero, if you must buy, get something that has dirt underneath it. If that is out of reach, you’re better off looking for cheaper accommodations somehow.

If you hit 40 with squat worth of savings and still servicing a pile of debt, you’re screwed for life.

#59 WUL on 03.07.16 at 8:53 pm

Perhaps by the time the gumshoes with the CMHC conclude their investigation into the reasons for the skewing (screwing?) of the YVR/GTA real estate markets, there will be no need for remedies and regulation.

It may end up as an autopsy and coroner’s report.

#60 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.07.16 at 8:57 pm

Garth, millennial here and I need some advice. I do relatively well (130K salary) and had saved up 35% for a down payment on a $400K condo.

what % of your net worth would the condo represent? use gartho’s rule

#61 Strathcona on 03.07.16 at 8:58 pm

Here in North-West Alberta, the open houses are empty. Some houses sell quickly, as past demand gets absorbed. Here in Grande Prairie, in June of 2014, we had a low unempoyment rate, and a low vacancy rate, of 1.4%. Vacancy rate is now over 10.8%, unemployment and crime are rising. Many of the more unskilled workers were let go a year ago when the boom ended. Many used car dealerships are trading down here. Getting you out of a jacked up rig rocket and into something smaller or older.

Canadian housing has had a long run. Much longer and much higher than the Spanish, Irish, or US housing bubbles. The property market is unraveling right now in China and Hong Kong.

we only need one military mistake, on the Korean border, or the South China sea, and all of this easily flowing money will stop between allied combatants, even if it is a sustained skirmish.

Houses do not always go up.

#62 ARP on 03.07.16 at 9:01 pm

A TALE OF TWO HOUSES.

Identical house across the street sold for lower-mid $400’s. Corner lot. Big yard. Fresh paint. Young couple. Very moist. Parents in tow.

$4.5K taxes per year. But nice grass.

Too bad they drive a pair of Kia’s. :)

Meanwhile my S.O and I (early 30’s, ~$180K between us, no kids) rent out the identical house across the street with a GDS around ~12% (don’t forget heat @ 100/month!) and investing copious amounts of cash a month into a balanced portfolio (some registered, TFSA maximum and tax optimized based on investment vehicle class).

Oh — and no debt. She also has a public sector pension.

Kind of like that Twix commercial…. left side evil… right side slightly less evil.

#63 Dave on 03.07.16 at 9:02 pm

Garth doesn’t have the balls to let commenters openly discuss the foreign ownership issue, but CBC has launched a forum on foreign ownership of Canadian real estate.

The CBC has balls? Nobody ‘discusses’ this issue. They foam. — Garth

#64 Observer on 03.07.16 at 9:03 pm

Politicians calling an EMERGENCY HOUSING TOWN HALL MEETING in Vancouver. Meanwhile POLOZ keeps interest rates at ROCK BOTTOM to prop up FORT MCMURRAY while families in Vancouver and Toronto try to find somewhere affordable to live . I say CRAP.

The Van meeting is an NDP event. Remember to take your sickle. — Garth

#65 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.07.16 at 9:11 pm

apparently my prediction of no US deflation was correct

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0W922Q

#66 Westbank on 03.07.16 at 9:13 pm

It’s useless. Dangerous, even. A government vendetta on non-resident (Chinese) buyers, taxing them punitively, might stem the flow of that investment, be a huge media and political event, kill speculation, precipitate a rapid outflow of capital, tip a market drowning in risk and lead to the kind of hard landing which would decimate every recent, over-sexed, mortgage-pickled buyer in Vancouver – 95% of whom are locals. Great outcome. Is that what the house-horny want? Fine. Then keep whining.
——–
There’s no ham you said….all locals bankrolled by mom and dad so who cares, make up your mind Garth.

How many times do I have to repeat myself? (That is a rhetorical question, given the density of some posters tonight.) A market in which the participants (you) have created epic risk needs only a slight push to topple. This could well be it. — Garth

#67 BS on 03.07.16 at 9:13 pm

I can tell you the market here is YVR is absolutely insane. Pretty much everything is going way above asking. No inspections. No subjects. Just a walk through on an open house then buy at any cost. This puts Tulipmania to shame.

This is exactly what we need to blow this thing up. It is going to be the biggest housing bust ever. All under T2’s watch. Sunny ways.

#68 annek on 03.07.16 at 9:19 pm

Most of the people who I work with ( in the GTA) are so smug in their belief that houses will keep going up. They are so sure that they have made a great investment and give advice to others about how good real estate is as an investment. It’s almost as if I am stupid to state that this is a peak and that there could be a correction. In fact, I have been saying this for many years, yet prices of homes go up. Yes, if there is a correction, there could be significant consequences, that could be distastrous for many people. But , perhaps they deserve this. If one is too greedy, then they should pay the price. There should be some rewards for those who think these things through and hold off on such purchases. I would like to see the smug ” greater fools” fall flat on their faces. Let them pay the price.

#69 Cici on 03.07.16 at 9:20 pm

What’s really going to klll the market is when people start realizing that they can’t afford their mortgages, even with gifted money.

That’s what’s happening all over Quebec right now, from Laval to the Laurentides and the South Shore, and from Hull and Gatineau to Outaouais, where foreclosures are at a six-year high (254 keys given back to the banks last month alone). Hence the high listings and lower prices.

When Toronto and Vancouver finally come down from their “high,” holy crap, look out below. They’ve borrowed way more at way stupider prices, and in many cases, these families have less disposable income than their Quebec counterparts.

#70 TnT on 03.07.16 at 9:20 pm

TRT on 03.07.16 at 8:42 pm
85 homes listed in Vancouver over $10 Million.

All 85 have the number ‘8’ in the asking prices.

How’s that data for you guys? lol

*************

That’s how’s it done…

$850 million injected into the housing market, sellers using part of their proceeds to fund the 2nd tier market (2 million) and then those sellers fund the 3rd tier market and so on…

95 % local but 100% top heavy dollars fueling the fire.

That 5% at the top is exponentially impacting the market as a whole.

And you can do squat about it. Stop moaning. — Garth

#71 greyswan on 03.07.16 at 9:24 pm

Investor class immigrates, where do most of them come from…..are they for UK, the EU, or China??
In the last 10 to 15 years for example Richmond population has changed with home prices and the largest percentage of people are Chinese now!!
Is that your definition of multi-cultural.
…it`s all about the money…”it`s not the Chinese investor class”…says Garth

Ugly. — Garth

#72 HD on 03.07.16 at 9:25 pm

#38 Mark on 03.07.16 at 7:47 pm

“– last, I really really hate pissing away $2K a month on rent when I could plow it into a mortgage, building equity”

——————-

You forgot the opportunity cost on that 35% down payment assuming it yields 7% in a balanced portfolio – $816 per month.

Cash flow positive? Say that again.

Best,

HD

#73 Olive on 03.07.16 at 9:26 pm

Hello Garth,

What happened to the Quebec post of today…was replaced with this new entry.

What happened.

#74 Cici on 03.07.16 at 9:31 pm

Oh, here are some of the sources:

http://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2016/02/02/les-saisies-de-maisons-bondissent

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2016/03/02/les-saisies-de-maisons-en-forte-hausse-au-quebec-en-fevrier

Funny how there is absolutely NO media coverage in Quebec’s English media though…

#75 Entrepreneur on 03.07.16 at 9:41 pm

I would like the truth to be known no matter what but with the proper research (#34 Smartalox). There is one thing I detest is a liar especially in a leader.

I agree with #42 Domino Effects on lets have a hard crash like the U.S. instead of a slow bleed like Japan. I would like to see all the youth (not just the privileged) have a chance to have families of their own.

Off topic but I have noticed that on the news lately that the TPP has not been mentioned very much. The Conservatives, the opposition party, obviously agrees with it. The NDP asked questions about it when in opposition. We need Tom Mulcair back!

Walk in the big stores, dollar stores, casinos where gadgets/money transaction take place. Where are these gadgets being made? Revenue from these stores go to the government & government can ignore other revenues that are not doing so well calling it “that is enterprise”. By doing so they are ignoring groups of people that they govern. Can only ignore the people for so long.

#76 Nemesis on 03.07.16 at 9:43 pm

[email protected],Or… #JustMoreWhining?…

“They see our market as a safe market to put funds in and they’re coming in and they’re putting their money into homes.” – Shawn Zigelstein

[G&M] – Toronto’s hot housing market drives big bidding wars in suburbs

…”Foreign investors are also becoming an increasingly potent force in the suburbs, in some cases paying well over asking price to purchase the home with its existing furniture.

Clients now sometimes ask if their listings can be advertised in Chinese-language newspapers in hopes of attracting top dollar for their properties, says Caroline Baile, the Large’s real estate agent.”…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/the-real-estate-beat/torontos-hot-housing-market-drives-big-bidding-wars-in-suburbs/article29053048/

#77 Cici on 03.07.16 at 9:44 pm

Oh, here’s another interesting article I found from way back in 2013 about the CMHC hiding foreclosure information, but Quebec refusing to go along with the cover-up for fear of ethical breach.

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/cmhc-seeking-to-hide-foreclosure-information-from-home-buyers

So, are Quebeckers really more ethical…or just smart enough to realize how dangerous hiding this information could be for the local economy in the near future? I’m sure they’ve come to the realization that cutting the debt snorflers out of the market now is probably the best move going forward.

#78 ronh on 03.07.16 at 9:48 pm

Today I was wasting time at the Kelowna Home depot
and the contractor loading area had 3 pickups parked
there all the time. Let the boom times roll.

#79 For those about to flop... on 03.07.16 at 10:13 pm

When I was thinking about what to do with 5k in my TFSA in late Jan I thought I was going to add to my U.S and Europe funds but after the Canadian action in Jan I decided to buy in the dip and rebalance later.
Now I have 25% maple.
Can equity fund up 5.5 in last month
Small cap Can fund up 4.9 in last month
Probably not as good as some folk as I do mutual funds instead of ETFs but I’m hopeful that the year gets better as it goes…

M41BC

#80 Bram on 03.07.16 at 10:20 pm

#29 Thomas on 03.07.16 at 7:19 pm
I do relatively well (130K salary) and had saved up 35% for a down payment on a $400K condo.

Your definitely on the right track with the down payment.
But why not wait it out another two more years?
With your salary plus dividends you will probably be able to put 50% down by then.

That would make a nice psychological victory:
You own more of your home than your bank does, right from the get-go.
Nice!

And in case that during those extra 2 yrs waiting, maple RE crashes… jackpot for you!

So in short, with a big hefty down payment: nothing wrong with taking a position in RE.

Bram

#81 Randy Randerson on 03.07.16 at 10:25 pm

#54 max on 03.07.16 at 8:36 pm

It’s sales volume, not price. Jesus, get your facts straight.

#82 VanNuck on 03.07.16 at 10:25 pm

Sorry Garth not buying it… if it was only 5% offshore money you know very well that if it was curbed it wouldn’t be enough to tip our market to a hard-landing decimating people’s wealth.

You’re slowing adjusting your words, I’ve seen you do this before.

Just admit it, you were wrong about offshore money impact. You don’t want to be the last to admit it do you? you could beat Cam Muir if you bucked up now.

#83 Bottoms_Up on 03.07.16 at 10:47 pm

Good to see the blog back on the greater fool theme.

I find the most telling metric of an irrational market is when homeowners can’t afford to buy the house they live in.

#84 Smoking Man on 03.07.16 at 10:55 pm

I’m sorry to my 69 fans for being light on posts.

Had a pall do my book cover, I’m amped. writing like a mad man.

You know who you are, thank you.. I could not finish this demon of a challenge without your inspiration.

God gave me the lazy gene. you slapped it in the face. And I liked it.

Fking artists bring out the art in our souls.

#85 Balmuto on 03.07.16 at 10:56 pm

#74 Cici

Thanks for the articles. If I read the JDM article correctly, it’s saying the main reason for increased foreclosures in Quebec is the increased time it takes to sell a house? And that some houses are being sold below the mortgage value? That doesn’t sound like a hot market.

#86 Bottoms_Up on 03.07.16 at 10:58 pm

#63 Dave on 03.07.16 at 9:02 pm
———————————-
93% (or more) of Canadian households return the long form census. To me, that shows #1) presence of citizens that reside in Canada.

So while obviously there is foreign ownership in Canada, it’s not rampant across the country, and likely concentrated in Vancouver.

#87 Bottoms_Up on 03.07.16 at 11:14 pm

#29 Thomas on 03.07.16 at 7:19 pm
——————————-
Wait. It makes much more sense to buy once you get hitched and have a family and looking to settle down. You’ve read this blog so you’ve read about special assessments right? And nightmare tenants? How do you know you want to be landlord when you’re a new dad with a growing family?

#88 Siva on 03.07.16 at 11:20 pm

#29 – never buy a condo. Only RE agents make money, not owners. If you can’t afford a detached or semi start with atleast a freehold townhouse. If you can’t afford a freehold townhouse then you are better off renting. Never buy a condo, ever!

#89 sockeye sam on 03.07.16 at 11:28 pm

#15 Okanagan Man.

Not so quick! And my buddy who works the service desk at Y.V.R. for Air Canada says lots of mainland Chinese being processed and heading to rural towns in B.C.
http://www.timescolonist.com/news/b-c/chinese-investors-increasingly-looking-to-buy-into-b-c-businesses-experts-say-1.1761053

#90 james on 03.07.16 at 11:34 pm

Ah, Oakville. Completely characterless, suburban, cold in winter… what’s not to like? I forgot to add the lovely commute to downtown Toronto. You couldn’t pay me to live in that area and commute.

1.7 million on a 75k median family income is going to be a lot of fun.

In fact, even two professionals making 110k a year each are going to have a lot of fun carrying that. Goodbye savings, retirement, etc.

No thanks. Every time I visit Toronto I enjoy the food, but bless the good fairy in the sky that I don’t live there anymore. Vancouver and Toronto are like the village of the damned… you go there, and the locals have these eyes filled only with the light of real estate. I feel like an outsider.

#91 Financial Samurai on 03.07.16 at 11:44 pm

I am amazed how expensive Vancouver is. What is the industry that is supporting that city besides foreign money? Seems more expensive than SF, but here in SF, we are making some pretty good incomes!

Sam

#92 mjw on 03.08.16 at 12:02 am

“It’s useless. Dangerous, even. A government vendetta on non-resident (Chinese) buyers, taxing them punitively, might stem the flow of that investment, be a huge media and political event, kill speculation, precipitate a rapid outflow of capital, tip a market drowning in risk and lead to the kind of hard landing which would decimate every recent, over-sexed, mortgage-pickled buyer in Vancouver – 95% of whom are locals. Great outcome. Is that what the house-horny want? Fine. Then keep whining.”

This is as close to an admission that Garth will ever make that the offshore Chinese money is a large factor in driving prices in neighbourhoods in Vancouver (which all the locals here have been aware of for years). Garth has been dead wrong about the detached home market in Vancouver for years. Many of the “locals” buying houses in van east and van west are “local developers”, who raise the house to the ground, whether or not it is a teardown, filling the landfills with needless rubbish (so much for Mayor Moonbeam’s green policy), and put up a 4M place within two months that someone will buy from sitting in an office in Beijing. I fully welcome ANY measure to curb this speculation which is destroying the city for the next generation and our children. (I am a home owner with a paid off 1.4M place who would happily have my house decrease in value so as to preserve the fabric of this city for the next generation.). What is happening now in Vancouver is not the making of a “World Class City”. We need real investment; job creation, attracting Hi-tech start ups (Silicon valley north), the film industry, etc.., creating modern (non-resource based) high paying jobs… not armies of house flippers and speculators who contribute so little to the spirit of this city..

#93 IKnow on 03.08.16 at 12:10 am

#70 TnT on 03.07.16 at 9:20 pm
TRT on 03.07.16 at 8:42 pm
85 homes listed in Vancouver over $10 Million.

All 85 have the number ‘8’ in the asking prices.

How’s that data for you guys? lol

*************

That’s how’s it done…

$850 million injected into the housing market, sellers using part of their proceeds to fund the 2nd tier market (2 million) and then those sellers fund the 3rd tier market and so on…

95 % local but 100% top heavy dollars fueling the fire.

That 5% at the top is exponentially impacting the market as a whole.

And you can do squat about it. Stop moaning. — Garth

—————————-

Just my HAM diffusion theory:
5% is HAM, half of the rest is also HAM.

And at least Garth is gradually (reluctantly?) swallowing it.

#94 Peter on 03.08.16 at 12:12 am

“A government vendetta on non-resident (Chinese) buyers, taxing them punitively, might stem the flow of that investment, be a huge media and political event, kill speculation, precipitate a rapid outflow of capital, tip a market drowning in risk and lead to the kind of hard landing which would decimate every recent, over-sexed, mortgage-pickled buyer in Vancouver – 95% of whom are locals.”

Strangely okay with that.

#95 West Coast on 03.08.16 at 12:18 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CoPdZwAqyhI

#30 Get back Loretta ……….you said it!
YVR has 2 storey houses in abundance………forget stories – half the town is living in 2 country houses!!

#96 Bram on 03.08.16 at 12:28 am

Oh well, at least Canadian cities aren’t that bad if you compare it to ‘world class’ city Barcelona (same population as Toronto).

Miles and miles of nothing other than this:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cc5uUTdUUAAvUy7.jpg
https://t.co/6ZJRkPBsZO

I guess they didn’t hire an urban planner, and made each block exactly the same?
Looks like a copy-n-paste job.

#97 Something at least on 03.08.16 at 12:34 am

Denying HAM exists is soon to be no longer possible and the embarrassed government is stepping in to audit every file through CMHC, CRA and a host of other agencies. No more immigration scams will be allowed, hopefully there will be many many charges of immigration fraud and money laundering, let the fun begin.

#98 TRT on 03.08.16 at 1:02 am

And you can do squat about it. Stop moaning. — Garth –

Don’t underestimate the people Garth.

#99 chumpy le chump on 03.08.16 at 1:04 am

Every time i think it can’t get dumber it does…..

i am going full disclosure here…

currently “owning” a place in West Vancouver. Every realtor i know tells me they can sell the place for double what i paid for it less than 3 years ago.

While the house has appreciated (or i think it has), owning has taken a severe toll on my financial health. Almost all my wealth is wrapped up in one basket. renos, car, repairs, etc have kept me in debt and i barely make any progress paying it off. I make over $225,000 a year and i barely scrape by each month.

I’ve been reading greater fool since its inception and i was the biggest bear in Vancity. A few years ago my partner inherited enough money for a down payment and i got the ultimatum- sign this mortgage contract or this separation agreement.

Ever since then it has been a financial struggle. it costs $4200 a month to live in the house, not including repairs (do you know how much a new roof or driveway costs?)

my debt has increased every year. Every time i think i can get ahead something happens and i don’t.

I could sell the place and walk away with $1,000,000. then i could help pay the rent with the income on the $1m.

no more fights about money, no more interest payments.

i have to think there are many people out there like me, who would be totally screwed if things went wrong.

#100 Bob dog on 03.08.16 at 1:04 am

I think the police should be investigating the real estate cartel and banking cartel as to why there is no data on foreign money laundering buyers.

I’m done with canada. Started interviewing for positions in Silicon Valley. Tesla and Uber passed on me but I’m just warming up.

My advise still stands: abandon the land of inequality for the land of opportunity. I need a nafta visa before trump ends the program.

#101 Bob dog on 03.08.16 at 1:13 am

The irony is that a functioning economy will increase interest rates by 4-6 % which will destroy the economy. Home prices are outrageous because of the 7 years of deep economic recession.

It’s going to really suck to be Canadian when the world economy recovers.

#102 TRT on 03.08.16 at 1:15 am

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/china-exports-plunge-1.3480533

Money is not entering China. Money is leaving China and going into RE around the world! Note the 25% plunge in exports…..AS IF!!! and i got a bridge to sell you.

Watch the imports…stable or increasing…thats how you launder money!

#103 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.08.16 at 1:44 am

#29 – never buy a condo. Only RE agents make money, not owners. If you can’t afford a detached or semi start with atleast a freehold townhouse. If you can’t afford a freehold townhouse then you are better off renting. Never buy a condo, ever!

why?

many of my peers have lived in condos for decades. no stairs, lower ultility costs, lower property management costs, lower insurance costs, easier/faster to clean, no leaves to rake, car is never covered in snow

#104 Greg on 03.08.16 at 1:49 am

29 THOMAS and 38 mark

I usually skip Mark posts but read this one and you almost make sense.

But I think you forgot the interest cost on the mortgage. That should pretty much remove the entire $900/mo “return” on ownership.

In other words Thomas will be throwing away more than $2000 monthly by owning.

#105 Nothing will happen until... on 03.08.16 at 2:09 am

…Canada is in a large job loss recession.

As long as people have jobs they will get approved to buy homes.

When they lose their jobs, severance (if they can get it) and EI will tide them over for a period (and maybe Bank of Mom and Dad, unlikely from today’s blog as they are in it with a lot of money of their own).

If the job loss recession is prolonged, then prices will fall as people will sell to limit their losses…but slowly.

So those of you who cannot wait for the crash, you will have to wait after the crash, if it even comes.

Early 80s job loss recession took 1 year for prices to drop by 20% to 40% in YVR (over that period the House Price Index went from 135 to 90, index corrected for inflation using 1980 dollars – which means without correcting for inflation, the price drops were higher).

It took longer but the crash was harder in 416 land (in the late 80s the House Price Index went from 220 in 1989 to 140 in 1993 or 36.4% in all).

Eyes on the GDP and Labour Force Survey numbers over the next few months.

#106 Love my Kia on 03.08.16 at 2:12 am

Garth, why don’t you ever apologize when you’re wrong (and you have been) and just move on!

You turn into a politician in subtly adjusting your wording when you’re not right (ie Chinese dudes mentioned today), while up until now you vehemently denied it.

Don’t get me wrong, I love reading this site because it contains great common sense most of the time,…but I find myself losing respect with snarky one liner comebacks to a good counter argument.

Why bother looking for feedback if all you want to do is knock people around who don’t agree with you? I would expect snarky responses from a Stephen Harper blog if he had one.

#107 JWD on 03.08.16 at 2:50 am

Bubbles don’t normally end well. A first world RE market that rises 30% in one year? Without some kind of coordinated intervention from the gov’t this will continue to grow into the stratosphere to become a real monster. They need to curb the mania and speculation. Respectfully disagree.

#108 Hillary Clinton on 03.08.16 at 3:36 am

what is yellow peril”? you racist pig!

#109 Buy? Curious? on 03.08.16 at 4:07 am

I hear all these anecdotal stories about Open House madness or stories of Chinese Buyers taking over cities in Canada but we never see any proof. Garth comes across as being on the right side of the arguement because he always asks to see the proof. (He’s smart as he is sexy, it’s true.) Why don’t you use your mobile phone and record it! Pop it up on Youtube and tag “Greater Fool Garth Turner”. If it’s true and videos start popping up proving the other side of the story, well, as that Desi Arnaz, from I Love Lucy, said, “Lucy, you got some ‘esplaining to joo!” (you like my cultural reference for the geezers?)

#110 Anne on 03.08.16 at 4:15 am

I own a condo in YVR , and live in it.
Love it.
Love watching the gardeners, the Mr Fix-its, and the cleaning ladies. I lock my door and head down the river trail, to the beach and continue to the library. LOVE it.
When I want to head off to a warm climate, I just lock the door and leave. Life is great. Maintenance fee is small. Investments are doing well. Condo living is freedom!

#111 Ace Goodheart on 03.08.16 at 6:49 am

And yet, despite this, you can STILL buy a detached house in Mount Dennis for under 500K. For those who don’t know where this is, try Eglinton and Weston, south of the 401, 15 minute walk to the fabled “Junction”. Sure we have drugs and gangs and stuff and our schools are not high up on the “good school” lists, but they are building a subway down the street, there are plans for rows and rows of new expensive condos and streetscaping. And we have an art project:

http://www.insidetoronto.com/news-story/4735880-artist-duo-shines-spotlight-on-mount-dennis/

Same thing I’ve always said. Avoid “prime neighbourhoods”.

#112 Siva on 03.08.16 at 7:35 am

#103: Yes, condo living is comfortable and you can easily rent one.

#113 data on 03.08.16 at 7:40 am

Thanks for the story from the ground Garth. It really tells us some amazing things

1. People are very confident with employment and continued employment
2. Income/Saving supports borrowing for 1-2M dollar priced homes.
3. Tight market with little supply.
4. We are still in the middle of a raging bull market on houses in Toronto as sellers simply cannot “cash out” because they have to live somewhere

5. How are HELOCS (buying your house from yourself athe inflated price today) doing ? That would mean that people are tapping the homes for cash

#114 tony on 03.08.16 at 8:06 am

lead to copper? get real..

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.16 at 8:11 am

@#22 Russ
“Trudeau was caught at Whistler last week endorsing his snowboard sponsor. ”
*******************************************

The snowboard industry needs all the help it can get…

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiH6O75lLHLAhURx2MKHeThDNUQFggbMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fnypost.com%2F2015%2F01%2F23%2Fwhy-snowboarding-is-fading-in-popularity%2F&usg=AFQjCNEGDg2LlHQlHJg52DSiXnOQ0hMHWg&sig2=dOu5h_St-k4DGee-mdBpVA&bvm=bv.116274245,d.cGc

#116 neo on 03.08.16 at 8:23 am

Holy crap! China exports dropped 25% last month. The 3rd highest drop on record. Imports dropped 13.8% and YOY has declined 16 straight months. And those are their official numbers which they tend to massage.

Yet Garth thinks China is fine and the global economy is growing. Sure…

Chinese growth is projected to be 6.7% in 2016. — Garth

#117 IHCTD9 on 03.08.16 at 8:43 am

#99 chumpy le chump on 03.08.16 at 1:04 am
Every time i think it can’t get dumber it does…..

i am going full disclosure here…

currently “owning” a place in West Vancouver. Every realtor i know tells me they can sell the place for double what i paid for it less than 3 years ago.

While the house has appreciated (or i think it has), owning has taken a severe toll on my financial health. Almost all my wealth is wrapped up in one basket. renos, car, repairs, etc have kept me in debt and i barely make any progress paying it off. I make over $225,000 a year and i barely scrape by each month.

I’ve been reading greater fool since its inception and i was the biggest bear in Vancity. A few years ago my partner inherited enough money for a down payment and i got the ultimatum- sign this mortgage contract or this separation agreement.

Ever since then it has been a financial struggle. it costs $4200 a month to live in the house, not including repairs (do you know how much a new roof or driveway costs?)

my debt has increased every year. Every time i think i can get ahead something happens and i don’t.

I could sell the place and walk away with $1,000,000. then i could help pay the rent with the income on the $1m.

no more fights about money, no more interest payments.

i have to think there are many people out there like me, who would be totally screwed if things went wrong.
_____________________________

I’d be planning to bail asap. Go from house poor to wealthy overnight, then GTFO of Van laughing all the way. Right now, you feel like you’ve got a deatheater permanently attached to your face, how are you going to feel if the market blows before you get out?

Those who haven’t owned before can’t really understand how much gets inhaled out of your wallet for the care and feeding of a house, ESPECIALLY and old one.

#118 LL on 03.08.16 at 8:43 am

#74 – CICI

It’s about time we finally see more foreclosures.
It was predictable (with a crazy market like that) but took lots of time.

#119 common sense on 03.08.16 at 8:52 am

#116 Mr. Turner

Who is projecting the Chinese growth of 6.7%?

The gov’t of the country itself OR an independent outside concern?

If it’s the gov’t, I would not trust their”goals”.

As opposed to you, anonymous Internet guy? Hey, no contest. — Garth

#120 LL on 03.08.16 at 9:02 am

#77 Cici

So, are Quebeckers really more ethical…or just smart enough to realize how dangerous hiding this information could be for the local economy in the near future?

The answer is in the question…”for fear …of ethical breach.”

#121 LL on 03.08.16 at 9:03 am

#74 – Cici

The next predictable news will be “Quebeckers divorce on the rise”.

#122 What Garth is really saying... on 03.08.16 at 9:04 am

It’s ok if HAM and other foreigners pump the bubble but any locals or Canadians are idiots.

Look how he defends the foreign buyers constantly, says the government shouldn’t do anything and deflects criticism towards foreign buyers. Instantly calls you a racist if you say some chinese student in a convertible lambo just bought your neighbours house for $200k over asking.

#123 IHCTD9 on 03.08.16 at 9:06 am

#90 james on 03.07.16 at 11:34 pm

No thanks. Every time I visit Toronto I enjoy the food, but bless the good fairy in the sky that I don’t live there anymore. Vancouver and Toronto are like the village of the damned… you go there, and the locals have these eyes filled only with the light of real estate. I feel like an outsider.
_______________________

That goes for the entire GTA for me. What a shithole. I do have to go occasionally for work. It’s like stepping into a different world. No one seems to be able to keep a job for more than a couple years (manufacturing), guys with big job descriptions and lots of letters behind their names living in crap condos. Traffic is insane pretty much 24/7/365.

Last day trip we did was to see the new Aquarium about a year after it opened up. We went on a week day to try to avoid some of the congestion, and took the Go train in from outside the GTA to avoid the horrific traffic.

It was FUST JUCKING STUPID busy despite our efforts. Must have been 1500 people in line outside waiting to get in. This goes for just about any attraction in Toronto.

All it’s going to take is for Wynne to finally Toll the 401 through there and that will be it. It would be cheaper and easier going to the US at that point.

#124 LL on 03.08.16 at 9:09 am

http://charybd.com/zerohedge/2016/03/05/18795-this-is-a-ridiculous-joke-an-abandoned-rotting-vancouver-house-is-listed-for-7-2-million

So ridiculous!

#125 Estrella on 03.08.16 at 9:11 am

Inequality of the rich and the poor. I wonder how history will describe our struggle. Here the Romans and the Greeks had different ways of doing it. ..

https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2016/03/history-concentration-of-wealth/

#126 Suzie Q on 03.08.16 at 9:12 am

#99 – Chumpy le chump

I appreciate your candor, and yes, you have company in the ‘real estate servitude’ club. I have less house, but also less salary, so find myself in the same boat as you do. Impossible to get ahead and most of the time barely keeping up.

I didn’t want my house. I was planning to rent after a relationship breakdown, and was happy with that…I was reading this blog and fully knew the risks of buying into this market.

Cue the horrified parents. Renting? Why would you throw your money away? Yes…I am an adult, I could have said no to the proffered gift…but after numerous fights and emotional batterings, I gave in. It was easier to say yes and have peace in the family. They were so insistent on giving me a hefty down payment I eventually thought ‘screw it, fine, its their money and their risk’.

EXCEPT IT ISN’T.

It’s MY money that has to stretch every month to pay the still-too-high mortgage, the property taxes, utilities, etc. I need a new roof this year, there goes my meager savings, which I already have to dip into today to pay for truck repairs. Fortunately, I have no other debt – but how long will that be the case when my savings will be wiped out this summer?

At least you are in a position that you COULD sell your house and come out ahead, whether that is feasible or not. I bought mine 3 years ago at peak and am just keeping the mortgage balance in line with the decreasing value.

So yeah, we’re out there. Some of us read the blog, know better, but somehow still end up the greater fool…

#127 20th Century Limited on 03.08.16 at 9:13 am

Garth –

You’ve been crying wolf about this domestic housing market for YEARS. As of today, there has not been any sort of meaningful price correction in the two markets that count. As I have mentioned before, who cares about house prices outside YVR and YYZ? These are the two places people want to live, and if it costs 100% or more of their income to do it, well then that’s what they’ll do.

A more relevant question is why DAMs are so horny for real estate. Why do they have so little faith in investing and, given their apparent preference for T2 and Comrade Bernie, such suspicion of capitalism? Provide a non-glib, reasoned response to THAT question and then perhaps we will all be a touch wiser.

80% of Canadians do not live in the GTA or the Vancouver area, so your comment is elitist and irrelevant. Additionally, of the 69% who voted in the 2015 election, 60% did not support T2. In other words, only 27.6% of the electorate as a whole voted for Trudeau in October. More elitism on your part projecting this across the entire population. If you kids trust inflated, subjective, emotional, debt-supported real estate values more than investing in profitable companies, good luck to ya. No lessons here. — Garth

#128 Smoking Man on 03.08.16 at 9:33 am

Wow T2 to kill Pacific NorthWest LNG project

Good old Butts and susuki there demented vision of zero emissions, de-industrialization. Complete mental cases, Germany is bringing back coal to be competitive.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/malaysias-petronas-threatening-to-abandon-lng-project-over-new-climate-change-rules?__lsa=80bf-926d

The project, to be located on federal lands on Lelu Island near Prince Rupert, received a largely favourable assessment from the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency (CEAA) last month, was greenlighted by the British Columbia government in November, 2014, and received conditional corporate support — or a final investment decision — from Malaysia’s state-owned company and its partners in June of last year.

But the new federal Liberal government is toughening up environmental reviews of major energy projects to regain “public trust” and as it strives to meet international commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
………………..

#129 Smoking Man on 03.08.16 at 9:41 am

We need a Donald for Canada, why did we allow 60 ISIS fighters back into Canada.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/csis-hasnt-crossed-line-with-controversial-new-powers-under-bill-c-51-director-tells-senate-committee

#130 IHCTD9 on 03.08.16 at 9:43 am

Are you a Millionaire tax dodger?

Wondering if voting for Trudeau was the right decision?

You’re damn right it was:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-revenue-kpmg-secret-amnesty-1.3479594

I’m sure the CRA would come down on me like a ton of lead if I pulled a stunt like this, but the millionaires get a pass.

It’s a good message – go ahead and roll the dice, maybe you get caught maybe you won’t. But if you do get caught, you’ll just have to do what you were supposed to in the first place – no consequences whatsoever.

#131 Hope & Change (Canada) on 03.08.16 at 9:58 am

#127 20th Century Limited on 03.08.16 at 9:13 am
Garth –

As I have mentioned before, who cares about house prices outside YVR and YYZ? These are the two places people want to live, and if it costs 100% or more of their income to do it, well then that’s what they’ll do.

Following the herd will surely cost you 100% more.

I lived in Ottawa when I was young and needed to gain experience. Tons of high paying IT contracts, right out of college.

I lived in South Florida for the weather and because I can ride my ZX6R all year long.

I lived in Calgary during the oil boom. High paying jobs, real estate, low taxes = huge savings.

I lived in Montreal for the lifestyle, because it’s an awesome city and since I am fluent in French I get along very well with the locals. (As long as we don’t talk, politics, ha!)

I lived in Silicon Valley because it was on my bucket list (it was boring as hell)

I currently live in Manhattan (another bucket list item)

Overall, I never felt the attraction of either Vancouver (weather is better in the US) or Toronto (projects are more interesting in NYC)

#132 gut check on 03.08.16 at 9:59 am

people named Anne seem to always do well in condos. Same with people named Jeanne and Helen.

people named ‘gut check’ not so much.

freedom, eh? I suppose there is, if you enjoy the ‘freedom’ of having a small group of strangers make your every lifestyle decision for you.

Living in a condo building is like being a kid from a mother’s first marriage living under the thumb of a narcissistic step father.

#133 Rabbit One on 03.08.16 at 10:07 am

I am confused.

So, I thought Canadian housing market is in high risk, who jumps in this market now with lots of debts would hurt sooner or later.

I know for a long time, banks never stop lending more and more money to regular citizens whose jobs are not as stable as a decade ago, not even tightening lending standard for years.
Even loosening more.
Isn’t Canadian housing market high risk?

We all know, it is not the banks who decide how and what, governments allow them to go like that way.

Garth says stop moaning, if one cannot afford, move away.
Same as one of the BC MLA comment : no one has God-given right to live in Vancouver (if you cannot afford)

Wasn’t it about risk owning one illiquid assets, lots of debts? but now it is about how much money one has?

Reading this blog, risks, balanced investing (diversified, not all in one basket), delusion, all made sense till just a week or so ago.

Now what I hear is “adjust it”, “swallow it”, “globalization everywhere”….?

Anyone?

#134 Rabbit One on 03.08.16 at 10:16 am

I am first generation immigrant.
(you can tell from my poor grammar)

Someone mentioned about Ghost town like area in Van.
If 49th ave. It is not Kits, should be Dunbar, MH, Kerrisdale?
Those area is centre of foreign money flow.

Someone mentioned about lost community.
Someone else mentioned about schools in Van.

No one needs to be melancholic, denying the changes.
But we have to acknowledge changes are very rapid, too many loopholes in Canadian system which many new immigrants are laughing about.

Reading many naïve comments, it will take forever for Canadian gov’t or people living here realize what is really happening here these days.

Globalization is to adjust your intelligence for “global standard” (= lots of varieties in values), you cannot just assume there is same standard everywhere and all people and money are good.

#135 Rabbit One on 03.08.16 at 10:33 am

There was an article in local newspaper.

Syrian refugee family with 5 children, only could find 2BR condo in Surrey / Langley area.

Impossible to fit all member of family in such a small space, hard to find jobs.

I know 2BR condo in the area is close to or about 1,000 sq ft.
Do you know how small standard apartment in Europe?

Would refugee in Europe receive 2,000 sq ft initial settlement?

I am not talking about Syrian refugees, I am talking about local people and media here.

We just don’t know much about world, and don’t know what is really going on.
(jus one example)

#136 Renter's Revenge! on 03.08.16 at 10:40 am

@133 Rabbit One:

Silly rabbit, cash is still king!

#137 20th Century Limited on 03.08.16 at 10:46 am

131 Hope & Change (Canada)

Thanks for your post. I lived in Montreal for 35 years and only moved to Toronto because the separation thing was getting silly c.1990. I’m not entirely sure I made the right move.

As for real estate – I never bought a house in Toronto – always too expensive. Besides, I like living a simple, unencumbered life and renting in the downtown core agrees with me. It allows me to save and, working in the financial markets, I get to see first-hand the incompetence of our central bankers and elected officials.

Occasionally I like to play devil’s advocate with GT and my post this AM has him convinced I’m a millennial. Thirty years ago I was!

Thanks again for your post.

#138 Renter's Revenge! on 03.08.16 at 10:47 am

In other words, only 27.6% of the electorate as a whole voted for Trudeau in October. – See more at: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/03/07/the-open-house/comment-page-1/#comment-436883

Democracy: tyranny of the minority?

#139 Ronaldo on 03.08.16 at 11:04 am

#99 chumpy le chump on 03.08.16 at 1:04 am

Must be terrible living under duress.

#140 Chris on 03.08.16 at 11:05 am

“Clearly, parents/family need to approve these purchases as I can only assume they are co-signers on mortgages and/or gifting the down payments.”

Jump to conclusions much?? Just because young people bring parents/older relatives with them when looking at a new home doesn’t mean they will get any financial assistance. My wife’s parents checked out the home we looked at back in the day. Think about it, would you make the biggest purchase of your life without consulting your parents (who have more life and house owning experience?) People here really want to see what they’re looking for. Relax, buy a home you can actually afford if you want to, invest a decent amount every year for long term growth, pay off your debts and quit trying to predict the unpredictable.

#141 Regret on 03.08.16 at 11:25 am

Should of bought, free and easy money. This is the new norm and their will be no drop in prices. I use to believe Garth, but he’s thinking old school. Debt and living beyond is the new culture.

I drive around TO everyday and can’t believe the amount of rebuilds, and the ave price is north of 2 million. Property tax on those homes is almost 20,000 a year!

Should of jumped in 2008. Damn!

#142 TurnerNation on 03.08.16 at 11:32 am

#99 chump needs to research MGTOW websites. 80/20 rule applies. Only 20% of info there is good but it’s good. Discard remaining.

I’ve never done online dating and never well. Just going out to events and parties a few times each week with friends. From cougars at fine hotel bars to dive bars I can handle it all.
This year dated. PR gal, management consultant, a doctor (psych) and a realtress. Guess which one refused to buy and is renting a nice semi. Yes the doctor – smartest one.

I got a semi.

#143 TurnerNation on 03.08.16 at 11:44 am

Unfortunately the PDAC convention afterparties now in Toronto are all grizzled prospectors and gold diggers. ;-) Open bar is solace.

#144 A Canadian Abroad on 03.08.16 at 11:45 am

Exhibit A: From today’s market (13h ago)

The HAM smoking gun chart everyone has been looking for:

“China’s imports from HK up an implausible 88% in Feb. Probably reflects hidden capital outflows” – Tom Orlik

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cc_xAdTW4AAWhPX.jpg:large

This would suggest a massive amount of money (capital) leaving China.

#145 Mike in Edm on 03.08.16 at 11:50 am

Well I finally managed a first interview since I was laid off 5 weeks ago! And I had to literally beg and plead to get my foot in the door (for nearly 3 months I’ve been trying to get an interview with these guys) Still have only received 3 phone calls overall though.

Heard on the Edmonton radio yesterday that bankruptcies in the province have increased by 18.5% over last year, but I haven’t seen any news articles on the matter yet.

And a house just down the block from me after being unsuccessfully listed for $440k for the 2nd half of 2015 is now back on the market with a new listing for $400k. Just one of many 10% price drops that will never be captured by RE statistics.

Can’t wait to hear how Notley plans on taxing us all with her new $3billion carbon tax scam in about 40 minutes.

#146 Ace Goodheart on 03.08.16 at 12:09 pm

RE: #11 Chaddywack:

One coworker owns a West Van house free and clear (about $3 million) and apparently has now mortgaged it almost fully to buy two houses in Vancouver in the last 3-4 months.

If that’s what’s happening, we’re in trouble. I know a person in Toronto who tried that. Mortgaged one house to pay for another, bought another, knocked it down and built a McMansion. Still owns the first house (with huge mortgage) + McMansion (also huge mortgage) and can’t sell the first because it’s under water. Renting one living in the other, waiting for prices to go up further. It’s amazing what a bank will value a house at, in order to grant a mortgage. No connection to reality, whatsoever. Mortgaged at almost a mil more than it could be sold for. And a major bank did that, too (not a subprime lender, one of the big five). Makes you wonder who is approving these mortgages and whether there is some sort of commission system for getting these big loans out there.

If you notice right now there are a lot of advertisements for courses and books on how to make money flipping houses in Toronto. Also subprime mortgage brokers have increased their advertising. That is always a sign that a bubble market is about to collapse.

RE: Thomas #29: Advice on buying properties: assume you just inherited the entire purchase price of the property (ie, 400K). Would you spend that 400K on that property? If the answer is “no”, then you should not be buying that property. People have a much easier time deciding to buy big ticket items, with borrowed money, than they do if they are considering spending their own money, for some reason or other…

RE: #123 IHCTD9: Pretty accurate take on the T-dot. But underneath all of that nonsense it’s a fun place to be and there’s lots going on. What I see as the problem, is the people who are moving in or coming up aren’t going to be able to enjoy it because they all have million dollar mortgages on their 1940’s era semis, they all work crazy hours and have a lot of stress to keep up with the payments and interest and their free time is spent renovating dilapidated old houses. Oh well at least most of them don’t have to drive, because their houses don’t have parking spots anyway ;)

#147 fancy_pants on 03.08.16 at 12:12 pm

what did you say will topple RE? this won’t
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/world/liberal-government-is-planning-to-bring-in-a-record-of-more-than-305000-new-permanent-residents-in-2016

time to pack up the blog.

#148 lee on 03.08.16 at 12:14 pm

141 regret,

I see no problem living with debt if you can lease a Porsche for $1000 a month and carry a million dollar home for $4000 a month. Most couples can and do and will continue to forever.

#149 winnie_poo_poo on 03.08.16 at 12:18 pm

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/excellent-customer-service-doesnt-have-a-cup-size-human-rights-watchdog-wants-to-ban-sexy-uniforms

Let’s have all women dress like winnie. that will ensure any remaining straight male holdouts will convert to the pride side

#150 Damifino on 03.08.16 at 12:52 pm

#110 Anne

“I own a condo in YVR , and live in it. Love it.
Love watching the gardeners, the Mr Fix-its, and the cleaning ladies. I lock my door and head down the river trail, to the beach and continue to the library. LOVE it.
When I want to head off to a warm climate, I just lock the door and leave. Life is great. Maintenance fee is small. Investments are doing well. Condo living is freedom!”

I live in somebody else’s condo in YVR. Love it. I love watching the maintenance being done on the owner’s dime. I’m so thankful its not my million dollars tied up in this place at a lousy 2% cap rate. I sold my SFH at a foolishly inflated price six years ago. That capital is still intact and has been returning me an average annual 6% yield since then. Love it! Renting is freedom.

#151 Lorne on 03.08.16 at 12:53 pm

#106 Love my Kia
Garth, why don’t you ever apologize when you’re wrong (and you have been) and just move on!
You turn into a politician in subtly adjusting your wording when you’re not right (ie Chinese dudes mentioned today), while up until now you vehemently denied it.
Don’t get me wrong, I love reading this site because it contains great common sense most of the time,…but I find myself losing respect with snarky one liner comebacks to a good counter argument.
Why bother looking for feedback if all you want to do is knock people around who don’t agree with you? I would expect snarky responses from a Stephen Harper blog if he had one.
………….
I feel the same way. Garth is a very intelligent, knowledgeable, quick-witted individual….but he certainly does have trouble accepting that he is not always correct. I do get a kick out of some of his comebacks but would respect him even more if he would admit he is occasionally incorrect.

I will make a note of that, for the possible future eventuality. — Garth

#152 Randy Randerson on 03.08.16 at 12:56 pm

#149 winnie_poo_poo on 03.08.16 at 12:18 pm

Next stop, only fat women who are 50+ years old can apply to work at Hooters.

#153 jaybee on 03.08.16 at 1:00 pm

I’ll be in the Toronto are in April. I have got to see this madness first hand, just for the entertainment value.

What is wrong with people?

#154 russ on 03.08.16 at 1:16 pm

Smoking Man on 03.08.16 at 9:33 am
Wow T2 to kill Pacific NorthWest LNG project Good old Butts and susuki there demented vision of zero emissions, de-industrialization. Complete mental cases, Germany is bringing back coal to be competitive.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/malaysias-petronas-threatening-to-abandon-lng-project-over-new-climate-change-rules?__lsa=80bf-926d

The project, to be located on federal lands on Lelu Island near Prince Rupert, received a largely favourable assessment from the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency (CEAA) last month
=============================

Maybe that project should be killed. The name sucks, there is no Pacific NorthWest in Canada.

check a map people, Alaska is in the way of a Canadian Pacific Northwest.

the yanks have trademark “Pacific Northwest” all sewn up.

#155 bdy sktn on 03.08.16 at 1:18 pm

IHCTD9 on 03.08.16 at 8:43 am

#99 chumpy le chump on 03.08.16 at 1:04 am
Every time i think it can’t get dumber it does…..

i am going full disclosure here…

currently “owning” a place in West Vancouver. Every realtor i know tells me they can sell the place for double what i paid for it less than 3 years ago.

While the house has appreciated (or i think it has), owning has taken a severe toll on my financial health. Almost all my wealth is wrapped up in one basket. renos, car, repairs, etc have kept me in debt and i barely make any progress paying it off. I make over $225,000 a year and i ba

I could sell the place and walk away with $1,000,000. then i could help pay the rent with the income on the $1m.

no more fights about money, no more interest payments.

i have to think there are many people out there like me, who would be totally screwed if things went wrong.
_____________________________

I’d be planning to bail asap. Go from house poor to wealthy overnight, then GTFO of Van laughing all the way. Right now, you feel like you’ve got a deatheater permanently attached to your face, how are you going to feel if the market blows before you get out?

Those who haven’t owned before can’t really understand how much gets inhaled out of your wallet for the care and feeding of a house, ..

……….

Bailing on van likely means bye to the 225k.
1 mil is only 40k payout

Something fishy here. Numbers don’t add up. Most west van houses are up well over a mil in the past 5 yrs.

Pissing away 225k every year is a spending problem (got a thing for hooker and blow on private jets?) A big one.

#156 understood by few on 03.08.16 at 1:25 pm

Alls these hearsay anecdotes about Chinese buying property via money from relatives at home. All the stories are the same, the gloss over the money bit, “So they sent money to buy a place.”

Sent millions? Sounds like these story tellers have never moved money internationally and quite possibly have never left their home town or Province. They see someone with skin color different than their own, buying something they can’t and have to make up a story to make themselves feel better.

And to all those that think losing 5% of the market (Chinese buyers) can’t make it crash: losing 0% of the actual market can make it crash when it’s all just hype and hot air. This is bearing more similarities to Nortel than is comfortable. The stock went up because of hype, false stories (“their market cap is less than assets!” or similar) and some fudging of numbers on their behalf (they couldn’t do stock swaps for acquisitions, because Canada, so in order to compete with US companies on paper they didn’t include cash acquisitions in their published numbers thereby showing profit when they were actually negative). Anyhow, the stock kept going up and everyone had their version of why it was justified and it’ll just keep going. They were different, special. There were a few that knew better, but no-one would listen to them, because anecdotes and hearsay trumped reason.

So, same old same old in the comment section. Greed and jealousy. Better get used to people that are different from you being around and doing things in a manner different than your own. Globalization is happening. It started with companies and now citizens are more and more mobile. Well… some are.

At risk of revealing my demographic I shall quote Del:

Life is a blast when you know what you’re doin’
Best to know what you’re doin’ ‘fore your life get ruined
Life is a thrill when your skill is developed
If you ain’t got a skill or trade, then shut the h3ll up

#157 jess on 03.08.16 at 1:27 pm

EB5 immigration fund
The Government Accountability Office, the investigative branch of Congress, found last year in a general report about the EB-5 program that many applications contained a high risk of fraud, and discovered cases of counterfeit documentation. State Department officials

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-03-07/trump-tower-financed-by-rich-chinese-who-invest-cash-for-visastold the GAO that there is “no reliable method to verify the source of the funds of petitioners.”

#158 SWL1976 on 03.08.16 at 1:32 pm

#145 Mike in Edm

Well I finally managed a first interview since I was laid off 5 weeks ago!

—————–

I am not sure exactly what you do Mike, but I seem to remember reading you have a strong mechanical background with some machine shop experience?

We are trying to fill a position that is 7 on 7 off fly in fly out, out of edm. If you know your way around a pump shop and this is of interest to you, click on my name and send me a resume

#159 Bram on 03.08.16 at 1:41 pm

#150 Damifino on 03.08.16 at 12:52 pm
I sold my SFH at a foolishly inflated price six years ago.

I know hindsight is 20/20 vision.

But wouldn’t you say that, retrospectively:
Your SFH price indeed seemed bonkers, but it really wasn’t that foolishly inflated in 2010?

I guess a -50% yvr crash could happen and bring it below 2010 pricing again, but that scenario seems unlikely to me.
Your 6% return on your portfolio was indeed nice, but also taxed, unlike the capital gains you made on your SFH.

Bram

#160 IHCTD9 on 03.08.16 at 1:56 pm

#150 Damifino on 03.08.16 at 12:52 pm

I live in somebody else’s condo in YVR. Love it. I love watching the maintenance being done on the owner’s dime. I’m so thankful its not my million dollars tied up in this place at a lousy 2% cap rate. I sold my SFH at a foolishly inflated price six years ago. That capital is still intact and has been returning me an average annual 6% yield since then. Love it! Renting is freedom.

___

^ This is the way to do it. All condos eventually go to zero. They are nothing more than an assembled collection of building materials hanging in mid-air being sold as if they are real estate.

If you don’t own any dirt, any value assigned is temporary – and that is guaranteed.

#161 TRT on 03.08.16 at 1:57 pm

Trudeau to massively increase immigration levels to well over 300,000.

I’m flying to Toronto and picking up some semis to rent out. RE prices are going to go even higher. No where to absorb these newcomers.

2015 immigration targets: 260,000 to 285,000. 2016 target: 300,000. This increase is ‘massive’? — Garth

#162 IHCTD9 on 03.08.16 at 1:59 pm

month. Most couples can and do and will continue to forever.
.#149 winnie_poo_poo on 03.08.16 at 12:18 pm
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/excellent-customer-service-doesnt-have-a-cup-size-human-rights-watchdog-wants-to-ban-sexy-uniforms

Let’s have all women dress like winnie. that will ensure any remaining straight male holdouts will convert to the pride side
______

Why do feminazis hate hotties?

#163 Daisy Mae on 03.08.16 at 2:16 pm

#132: “if you enjoy the ‘freedom’ of having a small group of strangers make your every lifestyle decision for you.”

****************

‘The small group of strangers’ try but don’t often succeed. Because they know zip about the law or human rights they are unqualified to ‘manage’ and are constantly getting their wrists slapped by lawyers, human rights tribunal….the list goes on. Because not enuf people step forward to warrant an election lately, our council consists of ‘self-appointed’ idiots. AGMs are a gong show. But aside from the corrupt politics, life is good. LOL

#164 Daisy Mae on 03.08.16 at 2:18 pm

I do NOT live in a condo. Gated community. Merely governed by the condo act….

#165 gut check on 03.08.16 at 2:25 pm

#162 IHCTD9 on 03.08.16 at 1:59 pm

working in heels is absolute torture and has both short and long term negative impacts on the body.

I guess you have no use for women after they have broken their bodies though, do you?

#166 bdy sktn on 03.08.16 at 2:29 pm

Donald Trump and Hillary are in a boat on the ocean but it starts to sink.

Wow gets saved?

#167 lee on 03.08.16 at 2:30 pm

50,000 more immigrants means at least another 25,000 more housing units needed, or about 15,000 for Toronto. That should raise demand for housing another 10% in TO. Don’t blame Garth, he couldn’t possibly predict all the factors that have come together to make Toronto real estate unstoppable forever. Buy now or buy never. A SFH should be 2M sooner than you think in TO. Pretty soon 2M will be the new 1M.

Immigration might increase by 15,000 people, or 5,000 families, of which half might move to Toronto (2,500) or which a quarter can afford a home (600). That would increase annual sales by about 0.7%. Math is hard, isn’t it? — Garth

#168 bdy sktrn on 03.08.16 at 2:32 pm

WHO, dammit, Who gets saved?…..

scroll….

the american people!

#169 Heisenberg on 03.08.16 at 2:47 pm

RE: #29 Thomas
You should have bought 8 months ago.

When you rent, you’re throwing away money and paying off someone else’s mortgage.

When you sell your property, it’s tax free gains.

So you have 140K in cash. These fools would have you believe that you can take that 140K and somehow invest it at a conservative rate of return of around 7% and magically that will pay your rent! do the math…it won’t.
And what happens when you have a year that’s -20% returns? Who pays your rent then?

On the other hand, when your RE drops 20%, you can still live in the same shelter. Doesn’t matter how much it drops, the utility of the shelter is still the same, particularly if you see RE as a long term investment.

#170 IHCTD9 on 03.08.16 at 2:47 pm

#159 Bram on 03.08.16 at 1:41 pm
#150 Damifino on 03.08.16 at 12:52 pm
I sold my SFH at a foolishly inflated price six years ago.

I know hindsight is 20/20 vision.

But wouldn’t you say that, retrospectively:
Your SFH price indeed seemed bonkers, but it really wasn’t that foolishly inflated in 2010?

I guess a -50% yvr crash could happen and bring it below 2010 pricing again, but that scenario seems unlikely to me.
Your 6% return on your portfolio was indeed nice, but also taxed, unlike the capital gains you made on your SFH.

Bram

_________________________

Crystalizing a great gain as opposed to agonizing over where the peak will be is wise.

You can make bets on the future – no one knows what it will bring. For all we know West Van could be leveled in an earthquake tomorrow. You could get burned just as easily as not.

Damifino’s portfolio may be entirely in TFSA’s or RRSP’s where the gains will be tax free, or taxed at a pittance upon retirement.

Trudeau is looking at lowering the capital gains exemption amount. No he’s not looking at primary residence – yet. T2 was elected to eat the rich, and reduce inequality. Want to roll the dice?

#171 Roial1 on 03.08.16 at 3:00 pm

Garth,

I don’t think that you would have approved of this, right?

So! Another reason for your firing by Harpo????

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-revenue-kpmg-secret-amnesty-1.3479594

#172 IHCTD9 on 03.08.16 at 3:12 pm

#165 gut check on 03.08.16 at 2:25 pm
#162 IHCTD9 on 03.08.16 at 1:59 pm

working in heels is absolute torture and has both short and long term negative impacts on the body.

I guess you have no use for women after they have broken their bodies though, do you?
________________________________

I work with a bunch of guys who’s eyeballs are burnt out from decades of welding, some nearly deaf from working in heavy industry for 30+ years. Just about everyone one of them has lost some part of their body via a shear, brake press, or saw. Years ago, a couple of them were welding on a giant tank when it exploded. One guy got blown over the Mill into the river and lived. The other guy landed in the parking lot out front – he died. I took a guy to the hospital once with his finger in a cup hoping we could get it put back on.

But please, tell me more about the high heels…

#173 Noel on 03.08.16 at 3:22 pm

#150 Damifino

I sold my SFH at a foolishly inflated price six years ago. That capital is still intact and has been returning me an average annual 6% yield since then. Love it! Renting is freedom.
_____________

You sure dodged a bullet there, would have put your back out lifting the wheelbarrow full of cash you would have had if you held on to the place and sold it now, or a year ago, or two years ago, or three years ago…

The rationalizations around here are just incredible!

#174 IHCTD9 on 03.08.16 at 3:26 pm

#148 lee on 03.08.16 at 12:14 pm
141 regret,

I see no problem living with debt if you can lease a Porsche for $1000 a month and carry a million dollar home for $4000 a month. Most couples can and do and will continue to forever.
____________________________________________

Will your job continue on forever?

I knew a guy like that, paid the monthly on everything, borrowed on HELOC, PLOC, VISA, you name it. Didn’t own anything.

Then he lost his job.

Total Garage Sale.

#175 A1 on 03.08.16 at 3:27 pm

Further evidence it is likely speculation
http://www.vancouversun.com/touch/story.html?id=11770403&__lsa=857d-ac0f

#176 Fed-up on 03.08.16 at 3:29 pm

#161 TRT on 03.08.16 at 1:57 pm
Trudeau to massively increase immigration levels to well over 300,000.

I’m flying to Toronto and picking up some semis to rent out. RE prices are going to go even higher. No where to absorb these newcomers.

2015 immigration targets: 260,000 to 285,000. 2016 target: 300,000. This increase is ‘massive’? — Garth

————————————————————————-

With the already highest per capita immigration rate in the world and a proven short supply of listings and rentals in the only 2 markets that the vast majority of our newcomers settle in, any increase seems illogical when it comes to the housing market and many other issues we’re facing in YVR and the GTA.

But nothing new here, let the party go on right? Canada is now a housing superpower dontcha know?

#177 Anil Goyal on 03.08.16 at 3:31 pm

Hi Garth,
You may be right that the buyers are local
in Vancouver. What stops a foreign parent in China
to buy a house through their kid student.

Is CRA/other agencies looking into the source
of these funds.
Please advise.
Thanks
Anil

#178 Damifino on 03.08.16 at 3:44 pm

#159 Bram

“I know hindsight is 20/20 vision.
But wouldn’t you say that, retrospectively:
Your SFH price indeed seemed bonkers, but it really wasn’t that foolishly inflated in 2010?”

I’d owned the house since 1985. The foolishness really began in 1995. For some odd reason the British hand over of Hong Kong caused prices to rise excessively. At least, that’s how realtors were spinning it at the time.

Regardless, when I bought, the house cost about three times my gross annual income. Twenty five years later I sold it for about eight times my annual income. And my annual income had been advancing far faster than inflation largely due to career advancement.

Now that’s foolish. “Greater foolish” to be precise.

#179 Smartalox on 03.08.16 at 3:50 pm

#145 Mike in EDM:

Good luck on your interview.

You said:
And a house just down the block from me after being unsuccessfully listed for $440k for the 2nd half of 2015 is now back on the market with a new listing for $400k. Just one of many 10% price drops that will never be captured by RE statistics.

Those 10% price drops don’t show up in the statistics until houses start selling. Eventually evidence in the form of ‘comparables’ factors into the local pricing model, and properties start listing at lower values.

The problem is that this makes pricing changes deeper and more pronounced. A couple of 5% drops would spur interest, and probably motivate an interested buyer sooner (maybe at 15% off) rather than giving up 25% of the sale price later.

But because prices don’t re-set until the listing expires, sellers don’t see the trend until they’ve missed it, either staying stagnant at last month’s low price, or going lower, accelerating the fall.

Instead of prices falling a few percent over the course of a few months, prices appear to take ‘big steps down’, (10% or 20% at a time)magnifying the perception of a crash, and leading to over-corrections.

#180 neo on 03.08.16 at 4:00 pm

#50 Jfish on 03.07.16 at 8:26 pm
Bought my first house in 1989 for 211,000. Sold in 1996 for 165,000. It can happen again.

You bought at the absolute peak and sold at the absolute bottom. If you stuck around until 2002 you would have been even Steven again.

#181 jess on 03.08.16 at 4:04 pm

more republican embarrASSments *warning wear your tin hat.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/schooled/2016/03/02/mary_lou_bruner_extremist_who_thinks_obama_was_a_prostitute_heads_to_runoff.html

http://tfn.org/2016-elections-this-years-extremist-candidate-for-the-texas-state-board-of-education/

#182 bdy sktn on 03.08.16 at 4:15 pm

Pretty soon 2M will be the new 1M.
………..
It’s happening now in vans downtrodden east side. Nice ones are hitting 2M and it seems like yesterday they went thru 1m.

Can still get the worst location and no house for just over 1.1

#183 Moller on 03.08.16 at 4:26 pm

Foreign buyers are not buying Canadian real estate as an investment, they’re buying it as a store of value to get capital out of their country. So it doesn’t matter to them if the value of their property goes down. Deal with it!

#184 TurnerNation on 03.08.16 at 4:35 pm

#165 gut check

Working in hot loud dangerous or confined places with dangerous goods/machinery has both short and long term negative impacts on the body.

Do you have use for men so affected, after they have broken their bodies?

#185 Blacksheep on 03.08.16 at 4:49 pm

IHCTD9 # 172,

“But please, tell me more about the high heels…”
——————————————–
Yes, Milling machines luuv to eat fingers.

#186 45north on 03.08.16 at 5:19 pm

cici: from your link: “Look at what is going on right now in financial institutions and everybody is ratcheting up their loan-loss provisions,” said Ben Rabidoux, a Canadian analyst for California-based Hanson Advisors, a market research firm whose clients are institutional investors. “Everybody expects loan losses to rise. I can’t imagine CMHC is in the dark on that. My suspicion is they want to limit any loss on that hits their books.”

aggregator said “don’t expect the banks to announce a downturn in real estate”

I suspect CMHC has the same policy: don’t make an announcement

I mean the real estate boards are all about making an announcement about an upturn in real estate prices but when the market turns the other way they say: prices are generally stable but houses are taking longer to sell

I don’t trust them: CMHC, the banks and the real estate boards.

one thing I do know is the number of pay day loan shops on Bank Street ( between Heron Road and Walkley in Ottawa ).

#187 gut check on 03.08.16 at 5:21 pm

to the male trolly mctrollersons:

and these men in these hazardous jobs – do they get paid more or less than waitresses? are they unionized at all? do they have to do those jobs in sexy clothing to please their female bosses or clientelle?

Stop with the whining and answer the question – do you have any use for the women whose bodies are broken from years on their feet in high heels?

And here’s another question for you – would you rather be half blind or half crippled?

Your disdain for women is obvious, all of you. You really put the ‘ass’ in compassion.

#188 604 RE supply side picking up steam on 03.08.16 at 5:21 pm

this was easy to predict

economy is tanking, RE is pumping and the lottery tickets are in the 4 walls

supply side is growing rapidly in 604 this Spring

all 604ers trying to sell each other their overpriced beaverbarf boxes and plywood shacks

this should be fun!

#189 Vancouver Update on 03.08.16 at 5:23 pm

Vancouver is a special case. By buying a house there ensures your children have a good paying job in the city. Those house less parents having kids in the city are being irresponsible ! How will their kids afford shelter when working in the city?

Caucasians will never get it. Should be mandatory to live overseas to see how world works.

Buying a home in Vancouver is generational. Then you buy more for your future progeny. But most here wouldn’t get that concept.

#190 Vancouver Update on 03.08.16 at 5:25 pm

#188 604 RE supply side picking up steam on 03.08.16 at 5:21 pm – See more at: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/03/07/the-open-house/comment-page-1/#comment-436942

Good grief. More lies. Vancouver inventory is at record lows.

#191 Mark on 03.08.16 at 5:26 pm

“Foreign buyers are not buying Canadian real estate as an investment, they’re buying it as a store of value to get capital out of their country. So it doesn’t matter to them if the value of their property goes down. Deal with it!”

Only problem with that ‘theory’ is that RE is already one of the most expensive asset classes in Canada or on the planet more broadly. The “story” would have more plausibility if the alleged “money flows” were spread across the entire spectrum of assets, including, but not limited to, relatively cheap businesses that are currently on sale in Canada at the moment.

The other problem with that ‘theory’ is that the bubble in Vancouver housing is perfectly explainable within the framework of the amount of credit/leverage outstanding from banks lending into the Vancouver RE marketplace. It is practically impossible for RE to rise in isolation to everything else unless it were a RE-specific bubble driven by credit. After all, where do the people who are the sellers of RE to the alleged foreigners do with all their money? The flows would show up somewhere, but the only “flows” that are detectable are those from the domestic lenders to RE speculators.

Last but not least, if it were a bubble being driven by foreign money, why is the CBSA’s “interest” at YVR these days more on illicit currency outflows than inflows? Why do various RE sell side firms have to concoct stories like fake helicopter rides, and pay local ethnics to stand in line to generate hype at new condo development sales events? Why do the RE bull types crap their pants every time Mark (or Garth or Ross Kay) mentions the “sales mix”?

#192 gut check on 03.08.16 at 5:27 pm

@ #176 Fed-up on 03.08.16 at 3:29 pm

“housing superpower”

:) I like it.

#193 TurnerNation on 03.08.16 at 5:48 pm

I get it now. If a man has an opinion and makes salient points of debate he’s a troll.

#194 TheAwakenedOne on 03.08.16 at 5:55 pm

Garth:

This pup is having flashback from the Nam !

I’m looking the same: having memories of the good ‘ol days in 2006 when I first moved here from Winterpeg: East Van detached houses were going for 650-700K … I thought that was crazy: look at it now.

Should I bail or continue to stick around for the collapse coming ? I can’t even afford a fricking “lane-way house” around here !!

#195 TurnerNation on 03.08.16 at 5:58 pm

Also I did not identify as a male in my post. Why is my post assumed to be a male’s opinion and therefore judged as trolling? Extreme disrespect and prejudice there.

#196 Bram on 03.08.16 at 6:02 pm

#175 A1 on 03.08.16 at 3:27 pm
Further evidence it is likely speculation http://www.vancouversun.com/touch/story.html?id=11770403&__lsa=857d-ac0f

Thanks for sharing. Interesting!
Finally some hard numbers.

Is it just me? I find 12.5% of condos shockingly high.
I did not expect that.
The article down-plays it, but it seems a lot.

Apparently, the condos are more of a wealth-store than the houses?

bram

#197 Bram on 03.08.16 at 6:08 pm

#176 Fed-up on 03.08.16 at 3:29 pm
With the already highest per capita immigration rate in the world

Dude, Canada is doomed without immigration.
Our demographics is mainly old people. Median age 42 yo.

#198 IHCTD9 on 03.08.16 at 6:13 pm

#187 gut check on 03.08.16 at 5:21 pm
to the male trolly mctrollersons:

and these men in these hazardous jobs – do they get paid more or less than waitresses? are they unionized at all? do they have to do those jobs in sexy clothing to please their female bosses or clientelle?

Stop with the whining and answer the question – do you have any use for the women whose bodies are broken from years on their feet in high heels?

And here’s another question for you – would you rather be half blind or half crippled?

Your disdain for women is obvious, all of you. You really put the ‘ass’ in compassion

————

My father in law worked with a guy at the paper mill years ago. He had an accident one night and fell into the rolls. Took two days to clean him out of there.

He wore the company garb required for his job, was unionized, well paid… and dead.

FWIW, most of the guys I work with could not be sexy no matter what they wore. Unless you consider a 50 year old, beat to shit Grizzly bear hot. Maybe some of the younger guys could be hotties. I assure you that they would wear whatever was required to have the company women see them as such – and without hesitation.

FWIW2, I have never worked at a job that required women to look hot. However, some of my ex female co-workers made sure the men took notice, loved any comment or second glance they may have received, a couple didn’t even mind “entertaining” the males after work.

Some even wore heels, though they didn’t have to. They still look to be in pretty good shape to me so far :).

#199 Squish on 03.08.16 at 6:38 pm

Goodheart on 03.08.16 at 12:09 pm
RE: #11 Chaddywack:

One coworker owns a West Van house free and clear (about $3 million) and apparently has now mortgaged it almost fully to buy two houses in Vancouver in the last 3-4 months.

If that’s what’s happening, we’re in trouble. I know a person in Toronto who tried that. Mortgaged one house to pay for another, bought another, knocked it down and built a McMansion. Still owns the first house (with huge mortgage) + McMansion (also huge mortgage) and can’t sell the first because it’s under water. Renting one living in the other, waiting for prices to go up further. It’s amazing what a bank will value a house at, in order to grant a mortgage. No connection to reality, whatsoever. Mortgaged at almost a mil more than it could be sold for. And a major bank did that, too (not a subprime lender, one of the big five). Makes you wonder who is approving these mortgages and whether there is some sort of commission system for getting these big loans out there.

———

This is what’s missing in a lot of perma-bullish points of view. People say it doesn’t matter if prices drop 20, 30, 40% if you bought a few years ago, because that just takes you back to where prices were then – no problem. In some cases, that may be true, but if talk around town here in Squamish is any indication, there are a LOT of “regular Joe” types who are re-mortgaging (HELOC, private equity loans, whatever) their first place to buy one or more (supposedly income, investment) properties. Add to that the people “taking equity out” to do renos, take trips, buy a truck, etc and you’ve got major trouble when prices contract.

These are not people with other savings who will be fine. And they’re not people just buying a home for their family (ie. “You gotta live somewhere, anyway.”) These are very average working types doubling down on huge debt, borrowing against the family home, with the assumption of winning big payoffs over time. Very precarious. Not good.

#200 Ronaldo on 03.08.16 at 6:46 pm

#196 Bram

This is shocking.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3XfpYxHKCo

#201 lisa thomson-The Great Escape... on 03.08.16 at 7:08 pm

I noticed new ‘added on’ signs attached to sold signs. They say “Sold for well over asking price”. I’m serious. This is a sign realtors can tack on after their mighty sale. This is scary.

#202 Fed-up on 03.08.16 at 7:53 pm

#197 Bram on 03.08.16 at 6:08 pm

#176 Fed-up on 03.08.16 at 3:29 pm
With the already highest per capita immigration rate in the world

Dude, Canada is doomed without immigration.
Our demographics is mainly old people. Median age 42 yo.
————————————————————————————

And we’re not over doing it jusssssst a little?

And we’re not doomed…hyperbole much?

#203 gut check on 03.08.16 at 8:16 pm

@ #193 TurnerNation on 03.08.16 at 5:48 pm
I get it now. If a man has an opinion and makes salient points of debate he’s a troll.

**************

no, friend, is seems that you continue to fail to ‘get it.’

A man becomes a troll when he decides to use a financial blog comment section to take irrelevant pot-shots at women’s concerns with the hope of setting himself up for high-fives from like minded morons.

see post #162 which refers to another gem at #149.

YOu could say that a man further becomes a troll when he defends the first brainless wonder and insinuates himself into an argument that ought not even be happening in the first place.

#204 Bob dog on 03.09.16 at 1:00 am

For millenials, working and living in Vancouver is like playing global thermal nuclear war. “It’s a strange game in which the only winning move is not to play”.

#205 rainclouds on 03.09.16 at 10:45 am

#162 Mimi
“Do we really think the tuition is what caused the massive debt?”

I might add poor decision making by people enrolled in such high demand degrees such as in Woman’s Studies, Humanities, Communications, Sociology, et al. All conspire to ensure 0 job prospects and debt. University is a wonderful path for many, personal responsibility is an even greater life skill.

Individuals refusing to be responsible for decisions THEY made is getting tiresome……………..

#206 Goober on 03.09.16 at 2:29 pm

Is it any surprise that people want to buy a home when the bank is literally paying them to borrow money?

Here’s an example of curious bank behaviour for consideration. While I understand that the rates mentioned below are promotional in nature, here’s a “major” financial institution offering 2-year mortgages at 2.24% and at the same time giving out 2.5% rates on deposits.

I’m no financial expert, but it seems to me that the spread on rates is supposed to go the other way.

This will not end well…