Greed & fear, II

FRIDGE modified

When houses go up, why don’t more people sell? More confusing, when prices drop, why do they stop buying?

Well, it turns out human nature – not rich Chinese dudes, sleazy realtors or economic factors – is most consequential to what real estate costs. It helps explain why the natives are willing to spend $1.5 million for a moldy beater house in East Van, and yet abandon discounted McMansions a province away.

I mean, look at poor Calgary – the hottest housing market in Canada thirty months ago. Bad boy ex-realtor and housing gadfly Ross Kay mashed some interesting stats on what happened in Cowtown over the last thirty days. Shocking, really.

In February 7,928 homeowners tried to sell their properties, of which 12% were builders and 88% were regular schmucks. Of those almost-eight thousand sales attempts, 6,803 were unsuccessful, for a sale-to-fail ratio of 16.5%. Only 1,125 trades were made and Kay estimates that over the past six months home values relative to municipal assessments have declined 8.2%.

This week, by the way, the number of new listings (relative to the same time last year), has tripled. Days-on-market last month jumped 20% on an annual basis. The market is dying. So what’s going on?

The same thing as in other tough gigs, like The Peg. There are more houses currently for sale in Winnipeg than during any of the past five winters. Listings are running an amazing 60% over levels of 2011 – when people in the parka-and-mosquito capital of Canada were convinced everybody wanted to move there, or at least buy an investment property. As in Calgary (or Saskatoon, or Halifax etc.) the slower sales get, the more owners who want to sell. And the more sellers there are, the fewer buyers who show up. It’s a vicious circle.

Of course, in hot markets, just the opposite. Like nutso Vancouver. House lust is so elevated that listings have plunged. Accepting the meme of buy-now-or-buy-never, owners are terrified if they list and sell, pocketing a huge and taxless capital gain, they won’t be able to re-enter the market. So the sales-to-listings ratio takes off, just as the sale-to-fail metric in Calgary tanks. In YVR these days almost 40% of active listings find a buyer every month. A year ago it was 17.7%, and two years ago just 14%.

Those numbers mean people looking for houses to purchase have, statistically, twice as hard a time now as in 2014. It also means demand is overwhelming supply, thus a detached house currently costs more than $1.8 million, with all the price graphs having hockey-sticked. So owners fear selling now for big bucks, then having to pay even more in 90 days when (or if) they find new digs. And that fear is laced with greed, since Vancouver real estate always, forever, without fail, rises exponentially and anyone can become a multi-millionaire if they wait long enough. So they do. Finally, we have a rental thing happening in Vancouver and the LM as well, since new leasable units are precious and so many mortgaged-strapped locals have discovered Airbnb.

So last month in Van, just to sharpen the point with Calgary, sales increased 36% year/year for the best February since Jesus. Said head realtor Darcy McLeod: “We’re in a competitive, fast-moving market cycle that favours home sellers. Sustained home buyer competition is keeping pressure on home prices across the region.”

Now, consider Montreal, the second-biggest market in the country, where an astonishing 32,644 properties are currently listed, and sales suck – a sales-to-listing ratio of about 7%, forecasting downward pressure on prices in a market where there’s a 15-month supply of homes. In contrast, in the GTA – with more than twice the population – fewer than 10,000 listings are available, a 14% drop from last year and a big reason why average prices have increased.

So what do we make of this?

First, if you really want a house as an investment, then buy one where listings are rising and prices falling. That’s because valuations tumble a lot faster than rents, and you’ll stand a far better chance of achieving a decent cap rate. (Besides, we all know commodity prices will restore.)

Second, no market rises endlessly. Even demand areas get ahead of themselves and correct. To believe otherwise is to err as an investor. So smart owners in Vancouver, for example, who have seen properties they bought years ago ride  artificial wave higher, should bail. They can either move inland and buy all of Kamloops, invest the proceeds and get enough income to rent a mansion, or just wait a year and buy back at a discount. Because it’s coming.

Third, bears and bulls make money. Pigs get slaughtered.

Human nature is not your friend, so it’s usually a good bet to look at what others are doing around you, then do the opposite. If you hoovered up equities in 2009, for example, you scored. If you sold when fear was everywhere, you got creamed. Same with houses. Prices in Vancouver and much of Toronto now are purely speculative, based on cheap lending rates and dwindling supply. This can change fast. Ask a cowboy.

191 comments ↓

#1 Unhinged Loon on 03.02.16 at 5:52 pm

First for President Trump.

#2 james on 03.02.16 at 5:57 pm

It still amazes me that people in nowhere towns like Winnipeg and Regina thought that foreign investors were flocking to their cities. I can buy the argument that Vancouver is attracting foreigners (particularly Asians), but nondescript towns in the middle of nowhere? I guess if one has a fetish for mosquito bites it makes sense.

I’d like to thank all the investors and software algorithms that dumped shares in January and December. Some of those stocks are now back up 25% from their lows. Jumping in when everyone else is selling paid off.

Sad to say, I envy those who purchased a detached house in Vancouver in 2002 or thereabouts. Sell out, retire somewhere with better weather. No brokerage would have given you that amount of leverage, so you are sitting pretty.

#3 calgaryPhantom on 03.02.16 at 5:59 pm

So, it’s a green light for buying a house in calgary?
Say yes, and i will get my shopping bag ready.

#4 Death For Metal on 03.02.16 at 6:01 pm

Third.

#5 Please NO MORE ADELEEEEE on 03.02.16 at 6:03 pm

But prices can go down only 15-20%

as we learned here from Mark.
if it is more, it will drag banks down, and
T2 will pump up CMHC and on on …

Until in 2-3 years cheapest one bedroom house will cost 4.5 million.

Time for talented people to seek Home Sweet Home somewhere else..

#6 JO on 03.02.16 at 6:04 pm

The TO and YVR markets are classic final stage parabolic action. It is being driven by the Ponzi mentality. Borrowed and gifted money and using “equity” from phantom asset prices to increase mortgages to buy another home.
The whole thing is a farce. Actually since 2001 it has morphed into a control fraud by government, central banks, senior FIRE execs, and borrowers. Back in the fall of 2001, a mild recession caused the FED to panic and drop rates far too low. Massive junk debt bubbles grew and so began the illusion of subsidized debt driven asset prices and the resulting GDP” growth”
Now that the debt bubble has essentially stalled out, look out. Now desperate and corrupt governments are broke and coming after the 40-50% of your income they let you keep. Watch your “climate” taxes, user fees, property taxes, and manners of all other taxes rise out of control over the next 5 years as the real economy steadily deteriorates.

There is no free lunch. The end game of historic non self liquidating debt bubbles has been and WILL BE financial tragedy and debacle.

You can count on your corrupt governments and financial executives to do everything possible to steal as much as possible through intensifying financial repression strategies.
JO

#7 Death For Metal on 03.02.16 at 6:04 pm

#1- Dark Amber light. The kind where The person turning left thinks you’re not really gonna go, but forgot they were driving in Brampton.

#8 Captain Stun Doe on 03.02.16 at 6:04 pm

Calgaryphanton – were did you read or understand Garth saying now is time to buy in Calgary ?

To buy in Calgary or any part in Canada offers very limited upside at this point but plenty of downside.

Real estate is dead wood.

#9 S.Bby on 03.02.16 at 6:06 pm

They won’t sell because they think prices will still go higher. Classic bubble mentality.

Rents in Burnaby are not much higher than they were two years ago, and lots of all types of rentals available. No rental crunch in spite of what the fear mongers would have you believe. AirBnB is a factor mostly in the downtown area.

#10 Westvanagon on 03.02.16 at 6:07 pm

can either move inland and buy all of Kamloops, invest the proceeds and get enough income to rent a mansion, or just wait a year and buy back at a discount. Because it’s coming.
———-
In a year ? Why? And Why do you continue to make calls on a market you don’t live in or understand? You will be wrong again in a year just like the last 8

#11 IKnow on 03.02.16 at 6:10 pm

Greed and fear is a big part, but still just a part.

Intelligent cool people trade stocks gave an exit plan in mind, but the plan is subject to changes to the fundamentals.

Chinese wealthy Ham is a big fundamental deal for Vancouver, or at least the perception of their presence is.

If there ever is a news that such Chinese Ham is completely definitely over, then for sure Vancouver house prices will drop 40% easy.
Otherwise, party on..

#12 Smoking Man on 03.02.16 at 6:10 pm

#186 Smartalox on 03.02.16 at 3:48 pm
@ Smoking Man,
A friend and I were wondering what Hunter S. Thompson would have made of Donald Trump’s ascendance, were he alive today.
It turns out, Thompson already had it nailed:
“The main problem in any democracy is that crowd-pleasers are generally brainless swine who can go out on a stage and whup their supporters into an orgiastic frenzy – then go back to the office and sell every one of the poor bastards down the tub for a nickel apiece”
– Hunter S. Thompson (from Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail, ’72)
……………………………

If we were alive today , it would go something like this, but a lot better. By the way, Hunter S Thompson was a 911 truther. His recordings can be found on You Tube. Google (Hunter S Thomson 911)

I will take a shot.

“Man, you should see the fear and loathing in the faces of those flinty whores who took down the towers, I recommend they stock up on some good eighteen-year-old scotch and keep a few cyanide capsules close now that Trump is palls with Alex Jones.

Trumps weird and wacky methods has everyone foaming at the mouth with wild murderess opinions, they scream, lie, and swear, people want to scratch each others eye balls out, they fantasize about pulling out the big gun, no mercy, head shots only. This is starting to smell like a democracy again, I endorse this chaos.” -Hunter S Thompson want-a-bee

#13 Doug t on 03.02.16 at 6:13 pm

I’ve got a friend in Kits – works from home. Told him to sell his place for 3 mill and buy here in Victoria for 750k. He’s ” mulling” it over – what’s to mull?

#14 Chaddywack on 03.02.16 at 6:16 pm

“…since Vancouver real estate always, forever, without fail, rises exponentially and anyone can become a multi-millionaire if they wait long enough”

My Aunt agrees with that. She told me the other day that the west side of Vancouver has never dropped. She referenced owning a house in Kitsilano in the 1980s when interest rates shot up. She said to me “Even then it just flattened out, but the west side has never dropped.”

Anyone remember a time when the westside of Vancouver dropped in price? I can’t in my short lifetime.

The Westside is not YVR. — Garth

#15 Victoria Real Estate Update on 03.02.16 at 6:22 pm

HOUSE PUMPING FROM THE LOCAL MEDIA INCREASING

The message: buy now or be priced out forever.

There was plenty of house pumping presented as “news” in 2010 in Victoria as well, then this happened:

. . . . . . . . . . . .House Prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .Percent Above/Below March 2010 Price Level. .
. . . . . . . x = Toronto, * = Oak Bay. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+25%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x. . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+20% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+15%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .x . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+10% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
….0%. . . x*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . . .
—————————————————————————–
. . . . . . March . . . . . . .March. . . . . .January. .
. . . . . . .2010. . . . . . .. 2012. . . . . . .2014. . .

(sources: Victoria’s R/E board, Toronto’s R/E board)

We can safely assume that Oak Bay’s 10.6% price plunge was actually more than that since the information comes from the Victoria board’s frankenumber price index.

Some other areas of Greater Victoria saw much bigger price declines.

Prices in Toronto increased 23.3% over the same period of time.

Of course the media didn’t present news stories about how much money some Victoria families lost in real estate during Victoria’s last housing price slide (2010 – 14). Apparently the local media doesn’t consider negative experiences that families have with selling houses as something that locals should be made aware of through them.

CLAIMS OF AN INFLUX OF BUYERS FROM CHINA PRESENTED AS “NEWS” IN 2015 NOT BACKED BY STATS

I’ve seen no 2015 stats that support this house pumping claim.

THIS YEAR’S THING: IT’S BUYERS FROM CHINA AND VANCOUVER

In typical fashion, the local media hasn’t presented any actual sales stats to back the impression they have given through their “news” articles that make this claim. As always they’ve simply quoted realtors.

That a local house sold for above asking price made the front page of the local paper today. This “news” article said that young professionals from Vancouver are buying homes in Victoria and commuting to work in Vancouver. The article also said that float planes and helicopters make commuting easier than in the past.

The same article said that families from China are buying houses in Victoria with the intention of working here. Work where? McDonalds? It gave the impression that Victoria’s economy was strong.

No facts were presented to back any of these claims.

THE LOCAL MEDIA IGNORING THE TRUTH

No mention of today’s temporary record-low, emergency level mortgage rates or the uninformed buyers who have raced to get in before the down payment increase deadline as having anything to do with the temporary uptick in sales across Greater Victoria.

That would be admitting that temporary factors have temporarily increased sales, which wouldn’t be house pumping at all now would it? Thus the crap about how buyers from China and Vancouver have recently discovered Victoria.

MANY VICTORIA FAMILIES MADE BAD BUYING DECISIONS IN 2010 BASED ON HOUSE PUMPING “NEWS” REPORTS

The above chart makes it clear that many families would have experienced significant financial problems as a result of buying at the peak in 2010 and then selling after prices across Greater Victoria had fallen at least 15%.

SUPPLY / DEMAND CONDITIONS ARE ALWAYS TEMPORARY

As we have seen in Victoria in the recent past, market conditions can change quickly and prices can begin falling at any time.

Nothing has changed here in Victoria..

#16 LadyInWaitingAndGivingUp on 03.02.16 at 6:23 pm

Ok Garth, I am going to lay it all out (finally) and parry your riposte Garth. You perversely offer simple solutions to complex housing solutions (sell high, rent, buy low). Well I am here to tell you things don’t work out, even for those among us here who are very privileged (household income $140K). I sold a house in the East in 2012 (made $200K and invested it) and moved to North Vancouver (now wishing I had not). Thinking the music was going to stop soon and my family of 5 could manage, we elected to rent a crappy but cheap home…and waited…and waited….and waited. Our landlords bought our rental property in 2012 for $860K and just sold it for $1.6 million. We have now received our eviction notice and need to move the family in the middle of the school year somewhere nearby. Meanwhile, we are losing the only affordable rental property ($2300 per month, 2100 sq ft house) that exists in this area, where $3500 per month (the cheapest I can find without fleas) now gets you a 1400 sq ft townhouse or another tear down and another eviction notice. This is an unacceptably large proportion of my income; we need to save more BECAUSE we do not own a house. And before anyone tells me to move to Surrey or Langley (nothing wrong with those places), I would need to commute 1hr 30mins and the reason I had kids was to spend time with them. I also like our schools, which is important to me. And yes I am looking for jobs elsewhere (again). So Garth, your simple advice (at least in Vancouver) is untenable now. Maybe the Garth plan works in other sane areas of this country. Frankly, if I cannot manage in this environment, I have no idea how other families with fewer resources manage. There are NO 3 bdrm rental units (plenty of dinky 1 bdrm condos) and the prices are sky high and resistant to falling due to limited supply. Rents have climbed beyond affordability; no one is building family housing unless your family happens to earn millions and you need 4500 sq ft. We have followed your advice and your plan is failing. Anxious to hear if you have a plan B or C. Signing off from the rental trenches of Vaninsanity.

Your sad story is completely divorced from my advice. If you cannot afford to live in North Van, move. — Garth

#17 Dee on 03.02.16 at 6:24 pm

Meanwhile, I spent the winter hoovering up Canadian equities to get back to balance in my portfolio. It’s no 2009, but it still feels pretty good right now.

#18 Snowboid on 03.02.16 at 6:26 pm

In the meantime, reports in the local Phoenix media suggest another ‘bubble’ may be forming in certain areas of the Valley of the Sun.

Downtown Phoenix is seeing a massive condo boom, with prices and rents expected to go up because of the demand.

http://tinyurl.com/CondoBoom-Phoenix

Other areas are also seeing more condominium projects than single family, but northwest of where we live hundreds of acres are being quickly converted into new suburban SFH developments. New mega-stores are under construction and malls are expanding.

By next year the landscape around us will be unrecognizable!

#19 Nemesis on 03.02.16 at 6:27 pm

#OeiHongLeong&HuiChiYan’s… #PlazaOfNationsLitigation,Or… #SingaporeTitanVs.HongKongTycoon… #Vancouver’sVeryOwn… #Greed&FearReduxInMicrocosm…

[G&M] – Vancouver developers in legal battle over Plaza of Nations breached agreement

…”Businessman Hong Leong Oei and his company, Canadian Metropolitan Properties Corporation, filed suit against Concord Pacific Acquisitions Inc. in the B.C. Supreme Court earlier this week.

The lawsuit comes four months after Concord sued Mr. Oei and Canadian Metropolitan Properties, alleging they breached an agreement involving land at the Plaza of Nations. Concord Pacific’s lawsuit said the land was valued at $500-million. The site is a rare piece of property with potential for further development on the downtown Vancouver waterfront.”…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/vancouver-developers-in-legal-battle-over-plaza-of-nations-breached-agreement/article28993051/

[NoteToGT: Just between the two of us, I chortled at the G&M’s characterization of the litigants as “Vancouver Developers”… Context: http://www.forbes.com/profile/oei-hong-leong/ & http://www.presidiopenthouse.com/realestatefundmanager/terryhui.html ]

#20 Andrew on 03.02.16 at 6:30 pm

Our company (in Vancouver) recently hired a new President from Ottawa. He accepted the job about 9 months ago and just arrived. He is devastated at how the house prices have changed in just 9 months. He hasn’t bought a place yet but even on his sizable salary he can probably only afford to live out in the sticks and even then he will be paying A LOT more than he would in Ottawa. I certainly wouldn’t be in any hurry to move to YVR if I have a decent job elsewhere, where house prices aren’t astronomical and salaries are the same.

#21 Rick on 03.02.16 at 6:39 pm

Oil is up again today:) I’m lovin’ it:)

#22 understood by few on 03.02.16 at 6:41 pm

And in YYJ the sales/listing ratio is at 40% (as of Feb)

http://www.vreb.org/pdf/VREBNewsReleaseFull.pdf

Just last year prices were still crawling back from the peak in 2010. Now there is a huge surge in buyers and not enough inventory. 772 properties sold in Feb, up 42% from the previous year. Maybe some YVR money is in the mix (hard to compete with someone that just cashed in their lotto ticket), but I’m guessing it’s the same story as Van, hype and desperation to get into the market before it’s “too late”.

Victoria is still “affordable”. Definitely pushing it on median income (unless you like to live like a pauper), but families with 2 gov’t incomes can manage a SFH no problem.

#23 South Burnaby gardener on 03.02.16 at 6:45 pm

#9 S.Bby. Don’t know if rents have increased or not but there are very, very few listings for any decent 3 br/2b, rentals in S Bby with 1300 to 1600 sq ft, storage, etc. We have been looking for a year without success. Found houses for rent, but nothing we liked unless we are willing to spend $ 3,500 + p/m.

#24 Retired Boomer WI on 03.02.16 at 6:47 pm

All this pontificating on the November 2016 US election.

Reminds me what happened in 1968. The presumptive next president of the US was gunned down. Bobby Kennedy, remember him?

We can RANT about the lack of things in the respective candidates come October, when we will have TWO official candidates. Too many things can change in between.

So, now that we are more grounded, let us get back to the foibles of owning Canadian Real Estate, investing in commodities, or how to properly rotate your sock drawer.

RB

#25 Recent Immigrant on 03.02.16 at 6:47 pm

Reason Montreal is cheaper than Toronto and Vancouver is the immigrants all want to live in Vancouver or Toronto. Our family landed in Montreal and we soon moved to Toronto. We have a bigger community there.

Same thing is happening in Vancouver with the Asians. It’s just that they have more money so prices are reflecting that. The Asians don’t want to live in Edmonton. It’s just human nature and common sense.

#26 gut check on 03.02.16 at 6:48 pm

#12 Smoking Man on 03.02.16 at 6:10 pm

I will take a shot.

“Man, you should see the fear and loathing in the faces of those flinty whores who took down the towers, I recommend they stock up on some good eighteen-year-old scotch and keep a few cyanide capsules close now that Trump is palls with Alex Jones.

Trumps weird and wacky methods has everyone foaming at the mouth with wild murderess opinions, they scream, lie, and swear, people want to scratch each others eye balls out, they fantasize about pulling out the big gun, no mercy, head shots only. This is starting to smell like a democracy again, I endorse this chaos.” -Hunter S Thompson want-a-bee

************************

i love it

#27 max on 03.02.16 at 6:49 pm

Its not just another province away, we have Mcmansion’s in Langley and Abbotsford under 2million and on acreage. Steadily climbing though but compared to Van and other areas they are still bargains.

#28 turn of the tide on 03.02.16 at 6:49 pm

Garth,

Are we still thinking USD will reach 1.50 CDN this year?

What’s a smart US allocation as we stand?

Thanks!

#29 mike from Mtl on 03.02.16 at 6:51 pm

“Now, consider Montreal, the second-biggest market in the country, where an astonishing 32,644 properties are currently listed, and sales suck – a sales-to-listing ratio of about 7%, forecasting downward pressure on prices in a market where there’s a 15-month supply of homes.”

//////////////////////////////////////////////

There’s a simple reason for that, last few years was building boom not unlike 1980s communist county and most sellers are like Europeans, max list price not willing to budge on price. I’ve seen listings sit for YEARS, unsold, not a penny less. Taxes are high, carrying costs high, salaries are low along with swampy economy in general.

Amateur landlord thing is also very common here so duplexes and MDU fetch good coin as evidenced by various RE stats.

The average home price thing is also BS, in Mtl anything decent worth actually buying is starting at 450-500k. You can find lower end stuff sure, but the area and or terrible condition will probably reflect that. “Sales mix” because of huge swaths of welfare land and 100+ year old crapshacks hides in specific areas that are worth a look.

As always RE is local and averages are meaningless.

#30 steerage steward on 03.02.16 at 6:54 pm

Garth touched on a point that boggles my mind; the average SFH in GVRD can be sold, the money invested at a conservative 5%, and the person will get $100k for life. All while maintaining $2 million principle.

Asked some friends who were lucky enough to buy in years ago why they don’t do this and retire today, they mostly say “well we would have to buy another place to live”. When I point out you can rent very nice places with $100k income they essentially say only those kinds of people rent.

People would rather work for the next 30 years, spending 40mins in traffic each way, etc then simply cash out and live their dreams. Suppose if they won a 2 million lottery jackpot they would just spend it on a bigger house.

#31 gumboot princess on 03.02.16 at 6:57 pm

We all have choices. We know that bubbles always burst (always) and that demographics in so many areas point downward for the next decade or two ( i.e. most Boomers will soon spend less on goodies and will downsize their homes.)

I think that someone hit the nail on the head when they said that many will move from a 3000 sq. ft. house to a 1200 sq. ft. townhouse to a 300 sq. ft. nursing home and a 20 sq. ft. grave.

#32 Bonhomme Carnaval on 03.02.16 at 6:57 pm

@ #6 JO on 03.02.16 at 6:04 pm

Agree. Just look to Europe, specifically Greece’s progressive (sexy) PM&Co. the majority of new tax levies are on real estate (immovable). Logical when you consider that 75% are home owners.

@ #8 Captain Stun Doe on 03.02.16 at 6:04 pm

Dead wood is right! Never buy a property that doesn’t pay you to own it.

#33 tundra pete on 03.02.16 at 7:04 pm

Doesn’t matter what it involves it always seems to end badly. I saw a good but sad show on that human nature just recently.

A 40 seater aircraft was near full. Through a series of unfortunate events the plane was hit by another plane while taxiing. In a scramble everybody headed for the exit. The same one. There were 3 other exits on the plane. This had just been indicated on the safety briefing. There were no survivors.

#34 The greatest fool.ca on 03.02.16 at 7:08 pm

I love the picture. The cat is really fat and the kids looks malnutritioned

#35 SquareNinja on 03.02.16 at 7:09 pm

How much of a haircut in Vancouver when it does happen? I was there back in 2011 and met a guy who hadn’t worked for four years because he made about $400,000 flipping properties many years before. I guess he could’ve become a millionaire if he still had his properties today!!!

#36 jimmy on 03.02.16 at 7:10 pm

Hello.

#37 Bobby13 on 03.02.16 at 7:11 pm

Chatted with my buddy from van as he is happy his place has gone up in value so much since he bought it I consult him with investing stocks and lightly recommended he sell and take a life altering gain. Instead he is shopping over listing looking for another property to buy there. So there you have it, it doesn’t have to make sense just look at the trend it only goes straight up. Good luck.

#38 The American on 03.02.16 at 7:12 pm

Smoking Man, you amuse me. Trump will be slaughtered. Truly. So, I will place my money where my mouth is. $20,000 Trump will lose, once he receives the Republican nomination. If you want to up the sum, please name your number.

#39 Big English on 03.02.16 at 7:14 pm

We had our annual corporate pep talk today in YVR; T2 was in the building doing his thing.

All is good, share price is stable, dividends continue to grow, share holders happy, we’re #1 in X, Y Z categories.

CEO directly spoke of the painful, yet necessary employee reductions as being a painful yet necessary requirement to remain competitive.
[reduce OpEx and ensure cash for dividends]

A recurring theme was that with the Canadian economy not creating jobs, tough times are ahead.

#40 Gregor Samsa on 03.02.16 at 7:16 pm

This can all be laid at the feet of low interest rates. When money is free / cheap, value loses it’s meaning. This is happening in all asset classes, not just housing. Low interest rates create bubbles.

In the case of housing, people are buying simply because they can. Low interest rates have made crazy house prices “affordable” in terms of the monthly payment, the only thing people care about.

The most stunning statistic in Garth’s post today is that in the pit of the oil slump in Calgary, with new mass layoffs announced daily, 6,803 Calgarians thought it would be a good idea to buy a home at current price levels (which are only a few % down from the peak). That’s amazing to me.

#41 MSM-Free Zone on 03.02.16 at 7:23 pm

#3 calgaryPhantom on 03.02.16 at 5:59 pm
So, it’s a green light for buying a house in calgary?
_________________________

Nope. You need to wait until the Lambo dealership on Heritage Drive closes its doors, season tickets at Sunshine and Louise ski resorts are deeply discounted, box suites at the Saddledome are almost empty, and empty houses are left with their bathtubs overflowing onto the streets for the banks to repo.

Not quite there yet.

#42 My realtor is my financiL advisor on 03.02.16 at 7:25 pm

True story, my realtor sold the house of his girlfriend ‘s parents and bought 2 houses farther away from yvr crazy centtre. Now he has 3 students to support the mortgage. And he is not one thAt pumps the ham story too much. Oh well

#43 ExitingYYC on 03.02.16 at 7:31 pm

@#36: Garth stated that 6803 were unsuccessful, you got it backwards.

Things are bad here in Calgary. Somehow we managed to sell our house recently. I think we were lucky. Things are about to get much, much worse when severence packages and EI run out. The jobs are disappearing. Properties that once sold for over a million are tankong in value. Spring could be bloody.

#44 MSM-Free Zone on 03.02.16 at 7:32 pm

“…..The main problem in any democracy is that crowd-pleasers are generally brainless swine who can go out on a stage and whup their supporters into an orgiastic frenzy – then go back to the office and sell every one of the poor bastards down the tub for a nickel apiece…”
_________________________

I’m confused. Who are we talking about here? Donald Trump, Sarah Palin, or George Dubya?

#45 Bob on 03.02.16 at 7:32 pm

Things can change fast

I agree with this statement, when things change.
However, I feel really dumb — maybe you can help Garth – what should we look out for to know that change is coming for Vancouver/Toronto?

Presumably, this is asking “When will interest rates go up?”

Which is another way of asking “When will oil rebound?”

Which, is probably also another ask “When will T2 grow up and get it right?”

I feel pretty dumb dismissing real-estate since 2006… someone please smarten me up with some good answers.

#46 kamilapea on 03.02.16 at 7:36 pm

Buy all of Kamloops!? The Tourney Cap is full of people believing the laws of the lower mainland apply there, hoping they can live off their TRU mortgage helper domiciled in the basement until they can make their flip… some will sit on a place for a very long time like the owners of 4702 Westsyde Road. If the can’t find a mortgage helper for the basement then they’ll try to find one for the upstairs, but keep the driveway for themselves.

#47 Smoking Man on 03.02.16 at 7:37 pm

#26 gut check on 03.02.16 at 6:48 pm
#12 Smoking Man on 03.02.16 at 6:10 pm

I will take a shot.

“Man, you should see the fear and loathing in the faces of those flinty whores who took down the towers, I recommend they stock up on some good eighteen-year-old scotch and keep a few cyanide capsules close now that Trump is palls with Alex Jones.

Trumps weird and wacky methods has everyone foaming at the mouth with wild murderess opinions, they scream, lie, and swear, people want to scratch each others eye balls out, they fantasize about pulling out the big gun, no mercy, head shots only. This is starting to smell like a democracy again, I endorse this chaos.” -Hunter S Thompson want-a-bee

************************

i love it
………………………

Thanks

flinty is not a common word, but perfect for the context.

Blog dogs where probably thinking I was trying to type filthy.

#48 meslippery on 03.02.16 at 7:38 pm

A Blue Ribbon for Retired Boomer WI
http://www.shorpy.com/node/18241?size=_original#caption

#49 Society's effects of distruption on 03.02.16 at 7:42 pm

increase in rent due to airbnb?

http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-march-2-2016-1.3472126/vancouver-airbnb-listings-increase-as-rental-vacancies-fall-below-1-per-cent-1.3472258

#50 Smoking Man on 03.02.16 at 7:43 pm

#38 The American on 03.02.16 at 7:12 pm
Smoking Man, you amuse me. Trump will be slaughtered. Truly. So, I will place my money where my mouth is. $20,000 Trump will lose, once he receives the Republican nomination. If you want to up the sum, please name your number.
……………….

I’ve already placed my bet, feel free to do it here.
https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/

If betting from Canada you need to download a proxy IP masker using a UK IP address.

#51 Ottawa on 03.02.16 at 7:50 pm

Dear Montreal ,

Is that bad there ? Here in Ottawa we have Gov jobs and gentrification where biker bars once ruled the street.

Hope it all works out well

Cheers!
Ottawa

PS – we will be OK right ? Doesn’t happen here right?

#52 Damifino on 03.02.16 at 7:56 pm

#30 steerage steward

“the average SFH in GVRD can be sold, the money invested at a conservative 5%, and the person will get $100k for life. All while maintaining $2 million principle.”

Ask any one of them why they wouldn’t do this and the response will always be the same:

“There’s no way I’d gamble my windfall in the stock market… 2008… 2008… 2008… Squawk!… 2008!”

You can’t reason with such people. Lord knows Garth has tried.

#53 Bram on 03.02.16 at 8:04 pm

14 Chaddywack on 03.02.16 at 6:16 pm
Anyone remember a time when the westside of Vancouver dropped in price? I can’t in my short lifetime.

I don’t know about west specifically.
But Vancouver as a whole saw a flat 2012, and a -12% between the summers of 2008 and 2009.

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.aspx

And note: in a year with flat prices: if there is inflation, the real price actually drops. Not much of an issue at the moment with these really low inflation rates.

#54 For those about to flop... on 03.02.16 at 8:06 pm

#14 Chaddywack on 03.02.16 at 6:16 pm
“…since Vancouver real estate always, forever, without fail, rises exponentially and anyone can become a multi-millionaire if they wait long enough”

My Aunt agrees with that. She told me the other day that the west side of Vancouver has never dropped. She referenced owning a house in Kitsilano in the 1980s when interest rates shot up. She said to me “Even then it just flattened out, but the west side has never dropped.”

Anyone remember a time when the westside of Vancouver dropped in price? I can’t in my short lifetime.

The Westside is not YVR. — Garth

/////////////////////////

I could be wrong Chaddywack,but I could have sworn that prices on the Westside dipped during 2009.
I was working on houses there and there was fear in the air.
That was just a blip,when this bubble blows I am going to get sprayed with shrapnel and probably lose my job for a while when everyone sits on there hands and plays chicken.

I don’t mind working for rich people( I once worked for Paul Allen who I was told at the time was number#2 on the wealth list).Its the people that pretend to be rich that give me the shits…

M41BC

#55 Arb Watson on 03.02.16 at 8:09 pm

Time for everyone in Vancouver to read.

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#56 Granny Annie on 03.02.16 at 8:10 pm

#14 re. West side yvr 1980’s

Yes, I remember it well. We bought a fixer upper in Point Grey (40th block) for $105,000 in July of 1979, put in $25,000, and when prices started going crazy, listed for sale in September 1980 for $264.000. The deal closed on December 1 for $256,000. The “investor put a $76,000 down payment, and we did a vtb mortgage at 19% for one year. We were collecting over $2200 monthly!!!

The “investor” tried to flip it, and on December 1, 1981 he sold it for $180,000 (what the 50′ lot was assessed for). Besides paying commission and over $25,000 in interest, he lost the down payment of $76,000, a total of almost what we had paid for it a little over two years before.

#57 Giving away our heritage on 03.02.16 at 8:15 pm

Quote from todays Vancouver Sun

“Wealthy buyers from China are snapping up Greater Vancouver homes, driving up prices.”

So HAM is a myth right?

Whose quote? — Garth

#58 Gordon Abel on 03.02.16 at 8:18 pm

BBC article showing Chinese buyers spent $12 billion on real estate in Australia in 2015. Monitoring foreign buyers takes guess work out of the equation. They contributed to increased prices while demand was strong. Conversely, now demand is less – as the Chinese economy has weakened and the Chinese govt. is stricter regarding movement of money out of the country – prices are declining.
There’s no reason the situation in Vancouver and Toronto should be different from Australian cities. Except we don’t have the figures.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-35601102

#59 Smartalox on 03.02.16 at 8:25 pm

Smoking Man @ #12:

Not bad; you’re definitely close in style, and rhythm – and kudos on ‘flinty’, by the way; but I don’t see a lot of murderous opinions coming from Trump’s opponents, mostly just disbelief, and disappointment.

I’ve seen some wild eyes (and wilder opinions) from some of his supporters, but that’s to be expected, I guess.

If he were with us today, I think he’d be writing about the greed-heads in the RNC, who front-loaded this year’s presidential race with kool-aid sweetened with eight years of sour graps and vitriol aimed at the Liberal left and funnelled down the gullets of those quaking from change, and desperate for a strong leader who’ll realign order with their fading memories of nostalgia, social order and supposed moral authority.

Like 19th century Frenchmen, they’ll elect an Emperor as their saviour, cheer as he seizes democracy by the throat, and follow him on a ruinous march into a war with Russia, shouting Liberty! Equality! Fraternity!

#60 For those about to flop... on 03.02.16 at 8:26 pm

Global just reminded about my small sales in the second hand market.
Sales for Feb.
eBay $ 170 U.S
Craigslist $35 Can.
Kijiji ,I know it is big in the east but it is crap here $0.

Small potatoes ,but it helps pay for my groceries… or the dude in front of me’s groceries like I did the other day because he was broke…

M41BC

#61 jay on 03.02.16 at 8:27 pm

Vancouver Taxi licences that were worth $1 million two years ago now worthless due to uber .It’s all supply and demand.

#62 Jfish on 03.02.16 at 8:28 pm

Why are Chinese people referred to as Asians? The continent Asia has 44 countries, including Russia, Iraq, and Iran. Shouldn’t the people of these countries also be considered for this title. Seems there is some kind of agenda here.

#63 the Hammer on 03.02.16 at 8:30 pm

At the risk of pissing off an alien, I have to wade in on Smokey’s enthusiasm for the Trumpster. As a Phd in Herdonomics you should know better. All those glassy eyed supporters are naught but marks to PT Trump. After 4 plus decades in the trades, I know what Real Estate developers do. In my lifeboat, the Donald is the first one to go over the side. Talking don’t move the boat, rowing does. Make a deal with the deep blue sea, Donald, you moron. Enjoy your stuff Smokey, but, honestly, if he cracks down on immigration…how’s he gonna keep bringing in those Eastern European bimbabes for future wives? No offense, enjoy always your psycholsis, no matter how induced. yr pal

#64 WUL on 03.02.16 at 8:33 pm

So the million $ line in the Lower Mainland marches steadily eastward. Call me when it reaches the summit of Kicking Horse Pass and begins its descent into AB.

Ret. Boomer, glad to see the typing fingers have defrosted.

Dreary article now in the G&M about increased imports of foreign oil to Canuck refineries including boosted US imports. The biggest and only customer for our oil.

AB now firmly matches the definition of a “cowboy”. A wet ass and an empty stomach.

#65 Joseph R. on 03.02.16 at 8:40 pm

That’s a fat cat!

#66 Giving away our heritage on 03.02.16 at 8:41 pm

Blog Dog ‘Venting’ complained that he felt discriminated against when his ‘physical exam’ turned cynical and seemed purposely designed to fail him. I followed up with a comment that the job had probably already been designated to a politically correct applicant from one of the governments special interest cohort, here’s proof of what I said.

“Employment Services Program has been developing partnerships with Edmonton businesses in order to help low income people find work and the Inner City Employment Fair is one of the ways that these partnerships have come into action in Edmonton April 2, 2015.”

That from today’s Calgary Herald. There has been a huge contingent of ‘special interest group’ persons come to Calgary with the support of Mayor Nenshi. His community has been exploding under his guidance. His influence has been growing with this growing constituency. Make your own conclusion as to why guys like Venting are being rejected out of hand while the ‘new comers’ are coddled and promised in return for political support. Oh Canada, thy name is Banana Republic corruption.

#67 Looney Baloney on 03.02.16 at 8:44 pm

Maybe T2 will institute a capital gains tax to get a get a cut of the proceedings from this insanity and incidentally help the budget balance itself?

Mr.G, any pointers in how us plebs can bet against this insanity?

#68 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.02.16 at 8:47 pm

wonder why the Indian government wants to slow gold demand. gold sucks anyway

http://www.businessinsider.com/india-just-stunned-the-gold-market-2016-3

#69 For those about to flop... on 03.02.16 at 8:49 pm

Mark,I just found out it wasn’t your Urkel nightmare that was making me sick.
The Metrosexual Messiah is in the Couv this week,his namby pamby ways rubs me like the rough end of a pineapple.
Speaking of fruit…all I wanted was a lime,then I was handed this lemon…

M41BC

#70 Often Wrong Turner on 03.02.16 at 8:50 pm

Whens that housing bubba gonna blow, bro?

#71 BS on 03.02.16 at 8:52 pm

Chaddywack on 03.02.16 at 6:16 pm

“…since Vancouver real estate always, forever, without fail, rises exponentially and anyone can become a multi-millionaire if they wait long enough”

My Aunt agrees with that. She told me the other day that the west side of Vancouver has never dropped. She referenced owning a house in Kitsilano in the 1980s when interest rates shot up. She said to me “Even then it just flattened out, but the west side has never dropped.”

Anyone remember a time when the westside of Vancouver dropped in price? I can’t in my short lifetime.

The Westside is not YVR. — Garth

You’re aunt has a poor memory. I lived in YVR at the time. No area was spared from the crash. In the early 80s the high end went down more than the mid range and low end. That includes Kits. Kits was down at least 50%. Even in the last correction in 2008 Kits was down 20% off peak within months.

#72 native cowtowner on 03.02.16 at 8:53 pm

I always get a chuckle out of my wife of 40+ years when these downturns hit Calgary. The good Doctor always says the same thing (and I’ve heard this at least a dozen times) “well I hope this time everybody just goes home to friends and family, because if I have to hear one more time about how great things were in Gander or Sudbury or Kelowna I think I’ll go nuts” (to her credit she always uses three different towns/cities).

#73 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.02.16 at 9:01 pm

USA economy continues booming. sorry doomers.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/05/news/economy/us-economy-january-jobs-report/

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0W41KX

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/02/suddenly-the-market-sees-growth-and-rate-hikes.html

#74 ben on 03.02.16 at 9:03 pm

Opposite me there is a home on for $650K. They have listed with 3 different realtors now over 18 months.

Guess they have the right price and the rest of Montreal is wrong.

Guess what age they are? That’s right: boomers!

#75 cramar on 03.02.16 at 9:04 pm

#72 Jackie Bling on 03.01.16 at 8:36 pm
Meanwhile , RBA stock has gone from 39 to 32, the smart money obviously doesn’t believe that Ritchie Bros ‘good fortune’ has legs.

And is the dentists paying 3 million for a lot the reason I’m paying 1400 dollars for a simple filling these days?

—————–
Likely so!

That is ANOTHER reason for living in small town Canada that I never thought of before. Cheaper services. My last fillings were $182 & $137 (which I think including x-rays).

Last week my wife went re. a tooth that keeps causing pain. They already did a root canal previous, so were puzzled as to the cause. They did an examination, took two x-rays, and determined it was probably a gum issue that needs a specialist to look at, which they notified on her behalf. All for NO CHARGE! Maybe they considered it warrantee work.

Come to think of it, I went once re. a broken piece on a filling done a year before. I said I was there for “warrantee work,” and they didn’t charge me for that fix either.

Did I say I love living in small town Ontario, where housing is cheap?

#76 45north on 03.02.16 at 9:20 pm

in Calglary Kay estimates that over the past six months home values relative to municipal assessments have declined 8.2%.

have declined 8.2% from July 2015

http://calgary.ca/CA/city-manager/Pages/About-Us/ourfinances-market-value-assessments.aspx?utm_source=sem_csc&utm_medium=sitelink&utm_campaign=fivs_2016&utm_content=market_value_assessment&gclid=CNbInLG2o8sCFQ8yaQodaGwOjQ

which is quite a drop considering city assessors are conservative. the higher the assessment the more likely owners are to appeal. So this year the assessments will be down.

which would be a first. I mean down across an entire city.

#77 The American on 03.02.16 at 9:23 pm

At #50: OUCH! Smoking Man, I hope you didn’t wager too much. It will not bode well for your pocketbook if you placed your dough on Drumpf.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnpO_RTSNmQ

#78 lee on 03.02.16 at 9:33 pm

Folks, if you cant afford to live in Toronto move to Woodbridge. Lots of affordable sfhs.

#79 IHCTD9 on 03.02.16 at 9:43 pm

#30 steerage steward on 03.02.16 at 6:54 pm
Garth touched on a point that boggles my mind; the average SFH in GVRD can be sold, the money invested at a conservative 5%, and the person will get $100k for life. All while maintaining $2 million principle.

Asked some friends who were lucky enough to buy in years ago why they don’t do this and retire today, they mostly say “well we would have to buy another place to live”. When I point out you can rent very nice places with $100k income they essentially say only those kinds of people rent.

People would rather work for the next 30 years, spending 40mins in traffic each way, etc then simply cash out and live their dreams. Suppose if they won a 2 million lottery jackpot they would just spend it on a bigger house.
————–

Mind numbing.

I won’t be retiring on 100k a year after a lifetime of saving.

I’d be selling out of there like my ass was on fire.

#80 BG on 03.02.16 at 9:43 pm

In the meantime, the cryptocurreny Ether is now worth 8.5 USD.
It was worth 4.5 USD when I bought some last month.

Yes, that’s greed speaking, and yes it is risky.
But at least that bubble does not require overleveraging to get in.
And it’s actually fun too.

#81 Smoking Man on 03.02.16 at 9:46 pm

#59 Smartalox on 03.02.16 at 8:25 pm
Smoking Man @ #12:

Not bad; you’re definitely close in style, and rhythm – and kudos on ‘flinty’, by the way; but I don’t see a lot of murderous opinions coming from Trump’s opponents, mostly just disbelief, and disappointment

Sometimes a good tin foil fadora will let you see things with a bit of clarity.

Let’s try this another way, don’t want to end up on a no fly list.

Ah screw it my tin foil fadora will keep me safe.

Let’s assume 911 was actuality an inside job, and all those high up neocons were in on it.

Now trump comes along , self funding and he’s not afraid to leave an inuendo here and there.

I’m going with murder minded more than disbelief or disappointed.

Building 7, well put as much lip stick on that pig as you like, eyes don’t lie.

Politicans do.

Going to be an interesting times between now and November.

Trump should call the Pope and see if he can use the Pope mobile going forward.

#82 Brian Ripley on 03.02.16 at 9:51 pm

“Now, consider Montreal, the second-biggest market in the country…” Garth

Factoid: The combined average sum price of a Vancouver, Calgary & Toronto condo is currently 34% (no typo) more expensive than a median priced Montreal SFD
Chart http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html

I will update this chart with Feb data when they come in but this ratio has been ongoing for quite sometime (years).

You can sell one average priced SFD in Vancouver and buy 4 median priced ones in Montreal and still have change left over.

C’est fou.

#83 Carl on 03.02.16 at 9:52 pm

This is a tough one to ask..but do you have any pics of your wife naked that ou can share with us?

#84 Don't Believe The Hype on 03.02.16 at 10:00 pm

Psst. The TSX and the Dow Jones Transports closed in the green for the first time this year (based on year-to-date returns). Transports had fallen as much as 11.9% by January 20th with the TSX swooning lower by 9% that same deay. In 2015, the Transports index was in the green for the year only 3 days. The TSX closed 2015 down 11.1%.

#85 Canadian Snowbird in Florida. on 03.02.16 at 10:03 pm

We’re now in an “Alice in Wonderland” economy.

The “Hare” reigns.

#86 learningfromyou on 03.02.16 at 10:04 pm

Thank Garth for your daily post.

Maybe in the future we could include another for Saturdays too? just joking!.

The following link makes me imagine the last and unique man standing on the Earth lying to himself to keep justifying his wrongdoings

We believe in scientific data if we paid the scientists to generate a report with results favoring us. It’s not science anymore.
————————————————-
Canada may already be carbon neutral, so why are we keeping it a secret?

http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/canada-may-already-be-carbon-neutral-so-why-are-we-keeping-it-a-secret
——————————————————-

1-Who can explain that it’s not dangerous to live in a place where chemicals were injected to the ground in order to extract oil?

2-Who can controls where all these chemicals will go?

3-How safe the underground water will be after that, how long the effect will last?

4-Do we learn from our trespassing in history like Chernobyl or Fukushima?

#87 max on 03.02.16 at 10:07 pm

There is an old saying in stock promotion, promoters promote to sell! I believe the real estate association is over promoting the market to heat it. China is continuously breaking down. Foreign investors could be massively about to sell, as its hard to get great wealth out of China now, even healthy allowances.

Its look out below, Canadian locals and local immigrants can’t support this market. Foreign investors are a tulip dream.

#88 IHCTD9 on 03.02.16 at 10:13 pm

#60 For those about to flop… on 03.02.16 at 8:26 pm
Global just reminded about my small sales in the second hand market.
Sales for Feb.
eBay $ 170 U.S
Craigslist $35 Can.
Kijiji ,I know it is big in the east but it is crap here $0.

Small potatoes ,but it helps pay for my groceries… or the dude in front of me’s groceries like I did the other day because he was broke…

M41BC

——————

I do the same. 3500 cash last summer on Kijiji and a couple Internet forums. Gas money etc..

This summer I’m selling off the balance of my “collectables” including my nearly done ’59 TD9-91 DROTT (guess I might need a new handle). Should be a good one, near 20 G’s worth of stuff I’ve collected at retarded low prices over the last few years.

Whatever it ends up being will be going into house maintenance, a new alternative house heating project, another quad, with whatever’s left going into RRSP’S/TFSA’s

I will also keep a few grand to start collecting again.

PS, I live on Kijiji, all day, all night. Yes it’s great out this way :)

#89 Smoking Man on 03.02.16 at 10:20 pm

My last tweet to Trump.

@realDonaldTrump they play dirty you play the building 7 card.. did you see Jebs face when asked about 911. He dropped out the next day
…….

Yes to yesterdays post from Snowboid 400m to Tims. Bit of macro threat huh.

Actually 401m come get me.

#90 Tony on 03.02.16 at 10:26 pm

The average person always dies broke, they always do the wrong thing. They doesn’t understand a zero sum game where for every winner there’s a loser. History will keep on repeating itself ad nauseam.

Most will always mistime because they don’t have the knowledge in the first place to size up any market. Only a scant few have the ability to take all variables and future variables into consideration when making a financial decision.

#91 Tony on 03.02.16 at 10:38 pm

Re: #84 Don’t Believe The Hype on 03.02.16 at 10:00 pm

The U.S. jobs report comes out this Friday, Draghi speaks next week. Expect at least a thousand point drop on the DOW after Draghi speaks. If Draghi says anything positive the markets will push upwards about 3 percent then tank at least ten percent almost immediately after rising. A golden moment for a short seller who waits and gets lucky and Draghi says he’ll cut rates and or bring in QE. You like the average person just doesn’t get it.

#92 Staying the course on 03.02.16 at 10:39 pm

#14 Chaddywacked…”anyone remember when prices dropped in west side van?”
Yes. Bought a house from Hong Kong owner in 2002 for less than he bought it for 5 years earlier. Sold in 2009 for 15% less than the peak only months earlier.” Realtor meme at the time was, “you have to catch the falling ball. If you don’t, you may never catch”. Point Grey

#93 Tony on 03.02.16 at 10:51 pm

Re: #67 Looney Baloney on 03.02.16 at 8:44 pm

A good chance it could happen but in the past a valuation day was always set. A little too late now to set a valuation day after the fact.

#94 Smoking Man on 03.02.16 at 11:00 pm

#77 The American on 03.02.16 at 9:23 pm
At #50: OUCH! Smoking Man, I hope you didn’t wager too much. It will not bode well for your pocketbook if you placed your dough on Drumpf.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnpO_RTSNmQ

..

Your not kidding I work in capital markets and currently build reporting software for asset management companies. Trump will destroy my industry. Never to get a gig again…

But there is a crazy bastard in my head. The anarchist. He’s getting more power over me as I age.

Waiting for dementia to set in to straighten me out. That bastard is afraid of me too.

I have no luck in that department.

#95 Ace Goodheart on 03.02.16 at 11:06 pm

Vancouver Island – around the same size as Taiwan, fraction of the population (750,000 vs 23.48 million), much nicer weather, and compared to Taiwan, real estate on the Island is really, really cheap (just ask a Taiwanese how much a streak of dirt 6 feet wide and 12 feet deep costs on the island – ie, a “building lot”).

The next big B.C. real estate bubble?

#96 Chaddywack on 03.02.16 at 11:21 pm

Thanks for the comments everyone. I knew there were some blog dogs on here who probably lived on the west side at the time……(or later corrections).

I didn’t think it was true, but it’ll definitely give me some fodder when I talk to my Aunt at Easter dinner…..don’t worry I’ll be nice about it ;)

#97 Fleurdelys on 03.02.16 at 11:26 pm

Hello everyone,

About Montreal

Here we have laws that protect renters from crazy rises and sudden evictions. I think renting here makes really sense

The city is expanding in 4 directions not three like Vancouver or Toronto

Economy it’s okayish, with the bombardier bomb that could explode (it is a real issue)

Large part of listings are condos… They are not very popular but builders do not lower the price

#98 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.02.16 at 11:33 pm

sm I hope you and your crusty teeth make a fortune on your trump bet!

hillary is gonna win tho.

#99 Chris on 03.02.16 at 11:46 pm

#16 if I were in your shoes, i wouls seriously think about leaving Vancouver for good. Ottawa may be a good choice. Or US?

#100 Babbler on 03.02.16 at 11:55 pm

TO RE is escalating while Montreal is in the doldrums. Why? Simple. Toronto is the destination of choice fro most immigrants. Toronto has massive immigration.

#101 Keith in Calgary on 03.03.16 at 12:04 am

Driving around YYC last week I noticed a lot of contractors, plumbers, and home builders trucks with te phone number peeled off the back of their tailgate or glass rear window, where they used to have a decal that said……….403222-3333 NOW HIRING PLUMBERS, etc.

#102 Peter S on 03.03.16 at 12:42 am

“How Can I Move to Canada” a Top Google search

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/how-can-i-move-canada-top-google-search-following-trumps-super-tuesday-wins?akid=14026.228489.UT4wJu&rd=1&src=newsletter1051727&t=12

#103 juno on 03.03.16 at 1:27 am

Debt debt and more debt.

T2 wants to ramp up double digit debt, house hold debt will probably surpass 170 soon.

Our dollar is at a discount.
Our industries and companies are being taken over by other countries because of the discounted dollar.

At the end of the day anything worth any value will be auction off at a discount to other country. And we will have nothing to show for it.

And yet our government continues its charade, and at the end of the day joe smoe will have to bail them out

#104 Rediculous on 03.03.16 at 1:57 am

#14: Anyone remember a time when the westside of Vancouver dropped in price? I can’t in my short lifetime?

Sure do – my parents purchased their home in Kerrisdale (i.e. Westside Vancouver) in 1981 for $185K, the same hoem that had been listed for $385K the year before …in other words > 50% decline in 1 year.

#105 family beagle on 03.03.16 at 2:05 am

#95 Ace Goodheart on 03.02.16 at 11:06 pm
Vancouver Island – around the same size as Taiwan, fraction of the population (750,000 vs 23.48 million), much nicer weather, and compared to Taiwan, real estate on the Island is really, really cheap (just ask a Taiwanese how much a streak of dirt 6 feet wide and 12 feet deep costs on the island – ie, a “building lot”).

The next big B.C. real estate bubble?

I’m always amazed how humans speculate on resources and assets they don’t own. ‘British Columbia’ means nothing. It’s a parasitic institutional blip in the lifespan of a diverse geographic region. Future generations will study our era as one of apelike plunderers fixated on self joy. Personally, I’d rather watch Mt. Baker blow from a good viewpoint than see a housing boom on the island.

Isn’t earth on a schedule for anhiliation… to make way for some interstellar viaduct anyway?

“All in good time, precious,” responds my cat.

#106 Rook on 03.03.16 at 2:32 am

Garth,
Can I ask your take on Victoria? There is some odd real estate things going on that an average bloke like me can’t seem to figure out.

#107 Vancouver on 03.03.16 at 2:47 am

only a fool would not believe that foreign money is behind Vancouvers housing fiasco. 30% increase in one year??? OMG!! That’s like $600,000 in 12 months. Wow.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/the-real-estate-beat/vancouvers-housing-boom-continues-after-record-breaking-february/article29005236/?service=mobile

#108 Clocked at Mach ll on 03.03.16 at 4:51 am

#75 Cramer. I just had a broken tooth rebuilt by an amazing dentist in Bangkok and it cost me $40 bucks, no tax. Isn’t it ridiculous? I know dentists have it easy in Canada but the billing is just crazy.

In Canada the city dentist where the clientele is unionized civil servants on 100% dental the dentists have been able to rake hell out of the insurance companies and the downside is that any ordinary Joe who can’t afford the insurance ( because the insurance guys are trying to recover the outlay for the elites) doesn’t have access to dental care because of it.

#109 Clocked at Mach ll on 03.03.16 at 5:08 am

EU house prices appreciating rapidly on ZIRP creates inflation in real estate and deflation across the rest of the economy. Does this seem familiar?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/02/low-interest-rates-spark-house-price-boom-across-europe/

#110 Re: @ LadyInWaitingAndGivingUp on 03.03.16 at 5:27 am

Thanks for sharing your story. I can relate because I have kids and finding good schools, school districts, commuting, juggling their itineraries and so is difficult at best but adding the stress of finding a home, a place to start and end the busy days into the mix is probably not healthy long term. Something will have to give and surely quality of life will suffer, no matter how strong the family ties are and how well functioning the family dynamics.

This is a problem and I don’t see it being addressed anywhere. Not really. I guess our kids don’t matter to the future of this Province’s economy. If we as parents are having such a hard time competing and managing in this environment, despite our reasonably good incomes just imagine how our kids will fare?

Who are they going to compete with? What are their job prospects? Where and how will they live? Those are very valid concerns that we as parents have. I feel we are being disregarded by our politicians and sort of like tossed to the curb. They don’t need us, they are not interested in our welfare because for every one of us that is leaving, there are two or more lining up to take our places. That is probably the way they think. They won’t admit that of course but their actions or rather lack thereof leave me no other conclusion.

As family we traveled allot to see how other places look and feel. Some of the most beautiful cities in this world are still affordable in countries with well functioning infrastructure and solid currencies. Their politicians had the foresight to restrict foreigners from buying properties unless the foreigner had sought residency and was documented for a number of years before buying. This is the case in Denmark where the most expensive listing in Copenhagen is about 5 million Dollars. Rents are controlled as well to ensure that the city has a vibrant economy.

There is a tough choice to be made because we feel that we need to relocate to help our kids and giving them a better start in their future. BC is not offering that vision any longer and the rest of Canada is quite frankly just as foreign as some places in Europe, Africa or Asia but with worse climate.

For much of the last century people were flocking to BC to build a better future for their kids. I don’t think that is a valid option today. My long term view on this Province is that it will eventually simply collapse under its own high RE evaluations, a lack of affordability and a massive drain on the already stretched public services and infrastructure.

We cannot afford it, let alone compete now. We cannot put our kids or their kids on the path that our ancestors were able to give us.

There is a glass ceiling in Vancouver and we have reached it.

BTW, I found Garth’s response to your well articulated comment very annoying to say the least. He could have done better.

#111 Saint Herb on 03.03.16 at 6:33 am

@ LadyInWaitingAndGivingUp

I hear you load and clear!!!

I made a similar move 3 years ago, sold 2 properties and rented a nice new house in the suburbs of Toronto.

So far so good, but not sure how much longer I can wait as well.

House down the street sold in 6 days for 1.1 M. It was listed for 988 k. That is 100 over asking.

This is an average builder home. This is crazy and I’m not sure how long this can last. If my landlord see this they will be tempted to sell as well. Then I’m SOL like you.

Feeling very hopeless and worried. I can’t get back in at these prices….

#112 Julia on 03.03.16 at 6:47 am

#78 Lee
“Folks, if you cant afford to live in Toronto move to Woodbridge. Lots of affordable sfhs”

Define “affordable”?

#113 George S on 03.03.16 at 7:04 am

#16 LadyInWaitingAndGivingUp
a reply to your complaining about Garth’s advice:

Even if you were to buy a $1M house in the area in which you live and the interest rate was 0% and there were no taxes etc. your monthly payments would be $3300. For your ex rental $1.6M house they would be $5300. (price/25 year mortgage/12 months per year), likely a very sizeable portion of your take home pay (seeing as how you were complaining about $3500 a month rent)
So what that means is that you were getting a very good deal on your rent and you are free to move whenever you want. And not taking a horrific gamble with your and your family’s future in case prices go down even a little bit.

#114 June on 03.03.16 at 7:08 am

Ladyinwaitingandgivingup

I was also very upset the way Garth spoke answered your question. He in my opinion “dismissed you” like your pain and concern for your families well being didn’t matter. Renting in north vancouver due to a job transfer has been really tough for us also. I agree with you that there really is nothing affordable. The houses can be 5000 and they are not great either. No one will take a dog. Garth doesn’t get the market in this neck of the woods. Actually his comment made me think he also doesn’t have much empathy for woman with children. He really sounded so cold. Very surprising from someone who loves dogs. I would love for him to look for a rental here with his beloved bandit. Good luck. Some people don’t have the luxury to quit their jobs. Canada doesn’t exactly have a ton of jobs right now.

Oh brother. My comment was to a whiny person who wants to live in an area they cannot afford. North Van is expensive, small and has always had limited rental stock. So drive 30 minutes and have a far wider choice. Nobody is entitled to live anywhere, and it’s pointless blaming the world (or me, or my lack of empathy) because you can’t have what you want, due to insufficient income or wealth. — Garth

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.03.16 at 8:20 am

@#14 Caddywack

“She said to me “Even then it just flattened out, but the west side has never dropped.”…..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

She’s wrong.
1983 a house 2 bocks from the endowment lands that was being gutted and reno’ed for a quick resale was bought for 240k and 6 months later….sold for less than 200k. I worked on it. The architech that designed the renos was the same buffoon that designed the Terry Fox memorial in front of BC Place. The house went from being a nice 1930’s faux english countryside style home to some hideous quasi modern monstrosity…. kinda like the equally unloved Terry Fox memorial at BC Place…….

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.03.16 at 8:26 am

@#112 June

She can move to burnaby and rent.
The commute to the North Van schools will be against the rush hour flow and take 30 minutes……..

#117 Sure things are death and taxes on 03.03.16 at 8:33 am

DELETED (vulgarity)

#118 Penny Henny on 03.03.16 at 8:38 am

In YVR these days almost 40% of active listings find a buyer every month.-GT

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

60% of active listings DID NOT find a buyer last month.

The horror!

#119 Penny Henny on 03.03.16 at 8:41 am

Now, consider Montreal, the second-biggest market in the country, where an astonishing 32,644 properties are currently listed, and sales suck –GT
/////////////////////////////////////////

For this you should be proud Garth. They have heard the good word and are renting.

#120 Yummie on 03.03.16 at 8:44 am

Sothebys says $4 million doesn’t buy you much anymore in Toronto. With prices up 15% YOY in Feb it looks like the average SFH in Toronto will be $2 million in about three years, just about when we make our next Olympic bid, which should spur construction by Billions more and attract much more wealth. I am sure those of you who keep saying this won’t end well believe what you are saying. Keep saying it because as long as you keep saying it it will keep demand lower than otherwise, which is good for buyers.

#121 paul on 03.03.16 at 8:51 am

#98 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.02.16 at 11:33 pm

sm I hope you and your crusty teeth make a fortune on your trump bet!

hillary is gonna win tho.
———————————————————-
Hillary may be behind bars in November!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/in-clinton-email-investigation-justice-department-grants-immunity-to-former-state-department-staffer/2016/03/02/e421e39e-e0a0-11e5-9c36-e1902f6b6571_story.html

#122 Ned on 03.03.16 at 8:52 am

“But now, many in China — including those in the newly enlarged middle class — are rushing to get their money out of the country. Some companies have also become more nervous.

In the last 18 months, more than $1 trillion US has left China, according to Singapore-based credit firm Fitch Ratings.”

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/world/china-zombie-economy-layoffs-petricic-1.3473002

#123 YYC-Is-Still-A-Great-Place-To-Be on 03.03.16 at 8:55 am

#3 calgaryPhantom on 03.02.16 at 5:59 pm
So, it’s a green light for buying a house in calgary?
Say yes, and i will get my shopping bag ready.
——————————————————————
You don’t need to wait for Garth’s advice on this one. Find a builder with inventory and a tight balance sheet. We managed to buy an inner city infill for 30% below the price paid in 2015. That’s enough of a haircut to warrant taking the risk. No, I’m not joking or telling tall tales. 30% discount.

#124 YYC-Is-Still-A-Great-Place-To-Be on 03.03.16 at 8:56 am

The funny part? The sale has gone through and the listing has just “gone stale”. They never marked it as sold. Perhaps another dirty realtor trick to protect stats?

#125 James on 03.03.16 at 9:09 am

Garth, you advise “First, if you really want a house as an investment, then buy one where listings are rising and prices falling.”

Where do we find this data for our cities? I live in Ottawa and am not sure what the market has done in the last few years.

#126 Dups on 03.03.16 at 9:26 am

They are worried in the States where there is not a real problem, while in Canada we sweep it under the rug and call it a day.

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/house-flipping-skyrockets-sparks-concern-over-housing-bubble-n530866

#127 Ron LePage on 03.03.16 at 9:36 am

#108 Clocked at Mach ll on 03.03.16 at 4:51 am
#75 Cramer.

”I just had a broken tooth rebuilt by an amazing dentist in Bangkok and it cost me $40 bucks, no tax. Isn’t it ridiculous? I know dentists have it easy in Canada but the billing is just crazy.”

I hope you gave him a nice juicy tip.

#128 Gonkman on 03.03.16 at 9:36 am

Oh brother. My comment was to a whiny person who wants to live in an area they cannot afford. North Van is expensive, small and has always had limited rental stock. So drive 30 minutes and have a far wider choice. Nobody is entitled to live anywhere, and it’s pointless blaming the world (or me, or my lack of empathy) because you can’t have what you want, due to insufficient income or wealth. — Garth

—————————————————

Epic response. :)

That’s the reason I read the steerage section.. Garth’s epic responses.

Please don’t ever change Garth!

#129 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.03.16 at 9:38 am

@Whiners-

You clearly illustrate the problem in your posts. Simply put, the problem is you and your sense of entitlement.

Go ahead, call me a “poopyhead”.

#130 James on 03.03.16 at 9:44 am

#77 The American on 03.02.16 at 9:23 pm

At #50: OUCH! Smoking Man, I hope you didn’t wager too much. It will not bode well for your pocketbook if you placed your dough on Drumpf.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnpO_RTSNmQ

;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
I agree this guy is a rather large sexual appendage. He is destroying whatever credibility the GOP was trying to garner. Unfortunately it is the dumbed down populace that are simply fed up with the current reign of the Democrats. The unfortunate thing is that there are a large portion of dumbed down GOP in the ranks. Different speculations from all sides of the right-leaning political spectrum as to who would make the best possible nominee however it also appears that flinging shit, and bald faced lies when debating will get you there as well. Then again just look north at the rather small sexual appendage we elected here in October. He lied directly to the dumbed down populace and went after the millennial vote with promises of legalized dope. He was elected on that sissy ass’d platform and bringing us legal pot,unwanted middle eastern refuges, uncontrolled spending beyond your wildest nightmare. God help us when they all hit the mistake on the lake in July.

#131 Rabbitt One on 03.03.16 at 9:58 am

#110

When I look at our children’s post secondary options in B.C., we have to pick from very narrow choices, too.

Look at how UBC is accepting international students now, and how they are planning to expand even more in future.
The even made micro suites come with it. Greed.

Good Secondary schools, Private, there are virtually no test to get in, interview of parents + $26K / year tuition test.

Good public secondary, long line ups.
While some school closure plans in this city.

Demographic is narrow, too.

Don’t know why one city in Canada – second largest country in the world – needs densification plans.
It is in between ocean and mountains? Sure, but we don’t need more densification.

Laneway house, was one of the Vancity’s plan for affordable housing.

Look what happened.

It just helped inflated SFH even more, my neighbouthood have many empty houses with Laneway house.

What I feel now is city needs more 3BR + rental stocks – not micro studio – social housing – prestigious suburbs development.

Not only Van West, West Van, Coal Harbour.

Plus we need reliable, affordable transportation system as most of the other Countries / cities in the world (except USA).

#132 Oilbertan on 03.03.16 at 10:05 am

So imports of Saudi oil surge in Eastern Canada.. while they do everything they can to say no to Albertan oil because they are soo green..

Brilliant…. Carbon tax on the way… T2 will kill off Alberta what T1 started. Such a shiny pony.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/alberta-crude-struggles-to-reach-refineries-swamped-with-foreign-oil/article29005951/

#133 Nuke on 03.03.16 at 10:14 am

For what it’s worth the Canadian government just sold the last of its gold reserve to focus on better assets.

#134 100 City Survey on 03.03.16 at 10:23 am

Vancouver is #1 out of 100 globally for real estate rise. Beat Shanghai which was #3.

The rich of Asia are setting up shop here! Oh wait…no data. lol

https://biv.com/article/2016/3/vancouver-home-price-growth-tops-100-global-cities/

#135 Noel on 03.03.16 at 10:24 am

1) The price of real estate in Calgary and Winnipeg has as much effect on prices in Vancouver and Toronto as it does on Sweden or Switzerland, which is zero.

2) Interest rates aren’t going anywhere in Canada for the next couple years, despite the history of the BoC tracking with the Fed. Yes, it is different this time. Never in history have low rates been so pervasive and global.

3) Vancouver housing priced in USD are still reasonable compared to other coastal cities like San Francisco and Sydney. Real estate is global, and right now there is an unprecidented outflow of capital from the emerging markets. House prices in Vancouver are not purely based on local factors and speculation, they can’t be.

4) You can still get reasonably priced housing in Toronto, you just won’t be able to live in the best neighbourhoods for less than a million. Same as it always was. Toronto is also the most diverse economy in the country and will stay that way for the foreseeable future. Those working entry level jobs in the city can still easily afford a 1 bdrm condo to buy or rent, same as it always was. The market is hardly based on pure speculation, although there certainly is an element of speculation in the $650,000-1,000,000 range semi and detached housing.

5) Immigration and demographic shifts will increasingly favour urban centers such as Vancouver and Toronto. The market is not out of control in these cities as is so often repeated.

#136 Rabbitt One on 03.03.16 at 10:32 am

Just to add: Don’t get me wrong here.
I am not whining, not feeling entitled.
In fact, I believe we are in pretty good position.
(2%?)

But moving away from Vancity don’t necessarily cheaper for those who actively work in this city.
Most important, “time”, too.

Our children are already grown up, we are lucky, I still feel for the new parents (also future of our children) in Canada who have to cope with many difficulties which was not imaginable just a few years ago.

Changes happening in the surrounding cities are so dramatic and so fast.

In short, to me, Vancity, or most other cities in B.C. look one of the developing countries.
Politics, city planning, infrastructures, schools, etc.

I don’t know who would say this is a good thing?

#137 Herb on 03.03.16 at 10:37 am

#130 James,

there was a strong plank in that “sissy-ass’d platform” you’ve overlooked: the possibility that he’d replace the Harper Government of Canada.

Seems that was enough for enough people to allow him to do it, in spades.

#138 IHCTD9 on 03.03.16 at 10:56 am

#110 Re: @ LadyInWaitingAndGivingUp on 03.03.16 at 5:27 am
Thanks for sharing your story. I can relate because I have kids and finding good schools, school districts, commuting, juggling their itineraries and so is difficult at best but adding the stress of finding a home, a place to start and end the busy days into the mix is probably not healthy long term. Something will have to give and surely quality of life will suffer, no matter how strong the family ties are and how well functioning the family dynamics.
____________________________________________

I was born and raised through my younger years in Thunder Bay Ontario. My Parents surveyed the situation and decided life could be better elsewhere – job prospects, education, even the long term viability of the city was limited. So they sold the house, had a big yard sale, and we moved to southern Ontario.

It was the right move no question. My siblings and I have much better lives than what T-Bay could have reliably offered back then, and much more so now. Same goes for my kids, nieces, and nephews.

Garth may not have let you down easy – but he is right. Lady in waiting and yourself need to pack up and leave. You are fighting an uphill battle, and you are sentencing your kids to even more trouble than you are currently experiencing yourself. Things will only get worse, there is no possible way your situation will improve unless you win the lottery.

We moved to small town Ontario, and thanks to the wisdom and bravery of Mom and Dad I now have:

A 12 minute relaxed, stress free drive to work.

All the GTA has to offer about 1.5 hrs away.

Very reasonable housing prices, mortgage was less than rent for a 2 bedroom apt locally.

Good jobs, I don’t make 6 figures, but I don’t need to. House is paid for, hundreds of thousands invested. Wife has a good public sector job with pension too. All local, no commute.

Excellent private schooling for my kiddies, both elementary and high school available.

Brand new public schools going up as I type.

Cultural homogeneity, just something I like personally.

We bought a 4 acre hobby farm, great country neighbours, great 4 wheeling, fishing, hunting, hiking, camping, swimming, minutes away.

GTA and Van are cess pools of misery for regular working folks. It’s a no brainer, start packing!

#139 Vancouverite on 03.03.16 at 11:06 am

#114 June on 03.03.16 at 7:08 am
Ladyinwaitingandgivingup

I was also very upset the way Garth spoke answered your question. He in my opinion “dismissed you” like your pain and concern for your families well being didn’t matter. Renting in north vancouver due to a job transfer has been really tough for us also. I agree with you that there really is nothing affordable. The houses can be 5000 and they are not great either. No one will take a dog. Garth doesn’t get the market in this neck of the woods. Actually his comment made me think he also doesn’t have much empathy for woman with children. He really sounded so cold. Very surprising from someone who loves dogs. I would love for him to look for a rental here with his beloved bandit. Good luck. Some people don’t have the luxury to quit their jobs. Canada doesn’t exactly have a ton of jobs right now.

Oh brother. My comment was to a whiny person who wants to live in an area they cannot afford. North Van is expensive, small and has always had limited rental stock. So drive 30 minutes and have a far wider choice. Nobody is entitled to live anywhere, and it’s pointless blaming the world (or me, or my lack of empathy) because you can’t have what you want, due to insufficient income or wealth. — Garth

—————————
I have to agree with Garth on this one.

I would love to live in the expensive neighbourhoods of Vancouver (eg. Point Grey – UBC, Kitsilano, Kerrisdale, Shaughnessy), however, it doesn’t fit into my budget — therefore I don’t live in one of these “prestigious” neighbourhoods of Vancouver. There is also half the City of Vancouver on the other side of Ontario Street known as Vancouver East — no shame living there, just can’t brag by saying one’s address is in Point Grey. Then, there is neighbouring cities to the east – Burnaby, Port Moody and Coquitlam, with the latter 2 cities soon to have their new skytrain system.

#140 Mark on 03.03.16 at 11:07 am

“You don’t need to wait for Garth’s advice on this one. Find a builder with inventory and a tight balance sheet. We managed to buy an inner city infill for 30% below the price paid in 2015. That’s enough of a haircut to warrant taking the risk. No, I’m not joking or telling tall tales. 30% discount.”

Wow, so closer to a 35% discount from the 2013 peak. As I’ve posted here a few times, the (good) Realtors in Calgary are apparently refusing to touch new listings unless sellers are willing to *start* at 25% off of 2013 prices. And even then, things aren’t moving very much.

EU house prices appreciating rapidly on ZIRP creates inflation in real estate and deflation across the rest of the economy. Does this seem familiar?

ZIRP/NIRP destroys housing prices on account of a destruction in lending. Typical Realtor propaganda is what you’re likely reading.

#141 brad on 03.03.16 at 11:11 am

A real estate bubble is created by low interest rates which we can all agree, however we’re missing that it only takes 5% of buyers (wealthy foreign all cash buyers desparate to get funds out of China) to further inflate that bubble to stratospheric levels. If 5% are paying higher than asking prices the other 95% get drawn in by greed and the upward spiral continues. Lest we underestimate the effect few foreign buyers have on our real estate prices.

#142 Eduard on 03.03.16 at 11:12 am

#114 June

I know the answer might sound bitter, but I’m agree with Garth.

I know somebody who has a 6 cylinder car, his unemployment benefits are almost over, unable to pay for the plate and driving license and came to me asking for my thoughts, because he was thinking that life without a car is almost unbearable.

I provided (softer than Garth) the same answer, you cannot have what you are unable to pay for.

My advice for people unable to afford their living price, Canada is big:

1- do your research, find a place or another job, you have internet don’t you?

2- rent a car and send your belongs through a carrier

3-Enjoy the wind and the view while traveling (it’s true that it sucks in winter , then the windows remain closed)

Just move out of there.

In my past I was in the same situation and I enjoyed the trip and the fact that I had enough funds for a few months without a job.

Just forgive Garth, too much time besides Bandit shaped his language in something too direct :)

#143 Snowboid on 03.03.16 at 11:13 am

#89 Smoking Man on 03.02.16 at 10:20 pm…

Threat? No such luck, you flatter yourself, my friend…but I do find it amusing when posters tell us who they are, where they live, then feign surprise when we mention it.

#144 NTH on 03.03.16 at 11:50 am

#124 YYC-Is-Still-A-Great-Place-To-Be on 03.03.16 at 8:56 am
The funny part? The sale has gone through and the listing has just “gone stale”. They never marked it as sold. Perhaps another dirty realtor trick to protect stats?

==========================

Good for you YYC!

In other words, do your homework folks!

Can you share the name of the builder?

Cheers!
Not Tonight Honey

#145 Smoking Man on 03.03.16 at 12:02 pm

Is there even a point in commenting, this is madness.
The 905 up 20% since last year, did forklift drivers get a raise.

http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news2016/nr_market_watch_0216.htm

#146 Calgary Rip Off on 03.03.16 at 12:11 pm

These statistics may be meaningful for overall trends. An additional view that is valid is that global and local trends dont interact with personal variables.

So house trends show “a”. Personal things under the surface are much much different. My neighbors house is for sale. $480K in the northwest. This house at the beginning of 2012 was around $420K. So house prices have dropped? No. That is not the case. Likely these sellers wont get list price, however who knows? They probably will still get above what they bought for.

The general trend is clear: Whining. If oil price goes up, gas costs too much. If it is too low, people lose jobs and the economy crumbles. I just dont get it. There is no compassion for the majority people and it is me first always. THIS is why there are problems, because the intentions behind many people’s decisions have no compassion.

The key element is that one must stay sane.
1)Weightlifting. Buy a barbell and lift it. Squats. Deadlifts. Sots presses. Clean and jerk. Snatches. Repeat often. Take Vitamin D3 as a natural steroid 4000 iu before lifts. Supplement with creatine afterward at $0.12/serving.

2)Electric guitar: Shred ala Tony Macalpine. Cost: $300 or so.

3)Chess: Online and books. http://www.chess.com. Brain training.

4)Go game: Online and books. http://www.dragongoserver.net http://www.wuzheng.org Learn how to stay alive. This game is used in Asia to train the military and businessmen.

5)Religion: Whatever you like. For me, Mormonism. A religion that is correct and works.

6)Heavy metal music: Tony Macalpine. Michael Angelo Batio. Stratovarius. Yngwie Malmsteen. Seventh Wonder. Circus Maximus.

7)Focus on small decisions. You cannot control outcome. You can control your thoughts, actions, and reactions to life. This=$$$$

#147 Mike in Edm on 03.03.16 at 12:12 pm

For anyone living and renting in Edmonton, FYI I just asked nicely aka demanded or we’d be moving for an 18% decrease in rent and my landlord generously agreed. I also refuse to sign another lease agreement, so i’m on month to month and will leave whenever I want. So if you’re renting and think you’re paying too much, check out rentfaster for some places that you’d gladly move to, and then offer your landlord $100 less than what those places are going for right now. I’m guessing they’ll be terrified of the thought of having to try and find new tenants in this market right now.

#148 TurnerNation on 03.03.16 at 12:14 pm

Life in Second World Kommunist Kanada: Learn to live with less while elites and party faithful reap our ‘climate change’ taxes.

Scrimp and save while our glorious bombs drop overseas vanquishing only VeryBadMen. There’s a war on you know. For OurWayOfLife.

http://www.cp24.com/news/loblaw-will-introduce-more-bruised-and-misshapen-produce-across-the-country-1.2801985

TORONTO – Loblaw says it will introduce more types of cheaper, bruised and misshapen produce across the country.
Its ugly duckling line of produce is aimed at shoppers looking to save money on the rising cost of fresh food.

#149 Lee on 03.03.16 at 12:36 pm

For most who have not purchased in TO by now, owning a SF house in TO is just a pipe dream. Even if things flatten, nothing short of a $200,000 family income will be enough to buy something decent in TO, with 20% down.

#150 Rexx Rock on 03.03.16 at 12:43 pm

Yet another crazy thing the government did today is cut its gold supply to zero.What does this mean? It means our country wants to have nothing if our currency collapses.Even tiny 3rd world countries have tonnes of gold to support its country in case of an emergency.Canada seems to do a lot of things to hurt its people for the future.Oh well time to get out of cad while you can.

#151 Noel on 03.03.16 at 12:47 pm

#146 Calgary Rip Off

…The key element is that one must stay sane.

…5)Religion: Whatever you like. For me, Mormonism. A religion that is correct and works.
____________________

lol. Sane.

“Day after day…Joseph would place the magic rock in an upturned hat, bury his face in it with the stack of gold plates sitting nearby, and dictate the lines of scripture that appeared to him out of the blackness. He worked at a feverish pace during this second phase of the translation, averaging some thirty-five hundred words a day, and by the end of June 1829, the job was finished.”

#152 Smoking Man on 03.03.16 at 12:47 pm

Greed & fear, II

Just caught Mitt Romney’s speak. This is the moment the Vampire gets the sharp wooden stake through the heart.

And that vampire is not Trump, He just killed of what remains of the GOP establishment.

They truly don’t get it. This is also a revolution against political correctness.

The herd hates politicians he’s just pushed a few more million onto the Trumps Train.

#153 common sense on 03.03.16 at 12:52 pm

Just read Canada sold off the last of it’s gold reserves…everyone else is buying and we’re selling….guess we have enough in the ground when the time comes and we need it. HA!

It’s Official: Canada Has Sold All Of Its Gold Reserves

#154 Siva on 03.03.16 at 1:01 pm

//#145 Smoking Man on 03.03.16 at 12:02 pm
Is there even a point in commenting, this is madness.
The 905 up 20% since last year, did forklift drivers get a raise.//

Same crappy, old townhouses cost almost $100k more in one year? It’s ridiculous.

Townhouses have doubled in value since 2010. Jackpot for anyone who bought in 2010. They should sell and pocket the tax free capital gains.

#155 James on 03.03.16 at 1:04 pm

#137 Herb on 03.03.16 at 10:37 am

#130 James,

there was a strong plank in that “sissy-ass’d platform” you’ve overlooked: the possibility that he’d replace the Harper Government of Canada.

Seems that was enough for enough people to allow him to do it, in spades
……………………………………………………………….
Well that doesn’t mean anything look at Toronto, they voted in Rob Ford? Some people will swallow anything that sounds good. Promise them the world and deliver hell. He is very good at spending money he doesn’t have. Keeping it real, peace out!

https://www.trudeaumetre.ca/

#156 Bottoms_Up on 03.03.16 at 1:13 pm

#125 James on 03.03.16 at 9:09 am
———————————————–
Google “OREB” or “CMHC housing stats”.

Lots of info. out there.

#157 Bottoms_Up on 03.03.16 at 1:17 pm

#122 Ned on 03.03.16 at 8:52 am
——————————————–
If just 5% of the money ends up in Canada, that’s still $50 billion over 18 months, and if it concentrates in Vancouver for the purpose of buying houses, then that could definitely impact the market.

#158 Rational Optimist on 03.03.16 at 1:22 pm

111 Saint Herb on 03.03.16 at 6:33 am

“If my landlord see this they will be tempted to sell as well. Then I’m SOL like you.”

Go to your landlord and ask for a longer-term lease. In the suburbs, there are not a tonne of single family homes being used as rentals, but also not many high-quality tenants like you. Your landlord is probably up nights near the end of the month worried that you’re going to give your 60 days notice. If you ever did, he’d be SOL having to sell the place in a hurry, or else trying to re-rent it and discovering that his fears about the quality of the rental were founded.

If you’re worried about being evicted, and want to stay long-term, go and negotiate a long-term lease. Remember: as a qualified tenant in a market with 70%+ home ownership rate, you are a relatively uncommon asset. Your landlord knows that.

#159 S.Bby on 03.03.16 at 1:33 pm

#16 LadyInWaitingAndGivingUp

I just looked on Craigslist (searched on North Shore) for North Vancouver and there are many decent full houses offered to rent for $2400 – $2500 month. Plus apts, condos, and townhouses offered for less than this. I do not understand why people post on here that they cannot find rental accommodation unless they pay a king’s ransom.

#160 bdy sktrn on 03.03.16 at 1:38 pm

#139 Vancouverite on 03.03.16 at 11:06 am

I would love to live in the expensive neighbourhoods of Vancouver (eg. Point Grey – UBC, Kitsilano, Kerrisdale, Shaughnessy),—

—who wouldn’t , some neighbours can be a bit stuffy though.

There is also half the City of Vancouver on the other side of Ontario Street known as Vancouver East — —-

—-not really any cheaper than n.van

Then, there is neighbouring cities to the east – Burnaby, —— also expensive

Port Moody and Coquitlam, with the latter 2 cities soon to have their new skytrain system. ——-

——–a possibility, yes. The train will be way faster from out there , and driving it is a pain in the …

———————————–
BOTTOM line is Vancouver is/had changed for good and forever.

Want to live in the city? #Don’t have 3mil – Sure no prob, plenty of condos. Like it was 30-40-50 years ago in tokyo/nyc/lond etc. Fact is, the next gen gets condos, not houses, in the lovely 604 as i have been preaching that the supply of sfh continues to plummet.

just drove along cambie S and 41st across town – saw maybe 200+ sfh more about to be erased from supply, along with construction sites where another 200 recently stood.

#161 bill on 03.03.16 at 1:38 pm

#71 BS on 03.02.16 at 8:52 pm
I agree.
my parents property lost at least half its ‘value’ during the time period you speak of.

#162 saskatoon on 03.03.16 at 1:40 pm

#16 LadyInWaitingAndGivingUp

rent a bachelor already, and be done with it.

suck it up.

#163 Looney Baloney on 03.03.16 at 1:41 pm

Zero guy says Canada has zero gold left in reserves:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-03/its-official-moment-canada-has-no-gold-reserves-left

Apparently Bill Morone sold it to invest in “better assets”. Maybe T2 wants to get in on the BC speculation game?

This is not going to end well..

#164 bill on 03.03.16 at 1:43 pm

#105 family beagle on 03.03.16 at 2:05 am
a dolphin just thanked me for all the fish….

#165 S.Bby on 03.03.16 at 1:45 pm

It’s not looking too good for China’s economy…

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/china-zombie-economy-layoffs-petricic-1.3473002?cmp=rss

#166 YYC-Is-Still-A-Great-Place-To-Be on 03.03.16 at 2:09 pm

#144 NTH on 03.03.16 at 11:50 am

Unfortunately, sharing that info would reveal my identity right away, given the size of the builder.

I know there are more deals to be had. Altadore, Killarney, South Calgary, Marda Loop, and Bankview are all overbuilt. Kick some tires, hear some stories, you’ll find them.

#167 Blacksheep on 03.03.16 at 3:03 pm

Nuke #133,

“For what it’s worth the Canadian government just sold the last of its gold reserve to focus on better assets.”
—————————————–
Just….f-ing…..brilliant….

#168 Russ on 03.03.16 at 3:16 pm

Blacksheep on 03.03.16 at 3:03 pm
Nuke #133,

“For what it’s worth the Canadian government just sold the last of its gold reserve to focus on better assets.”
—————————————–
Just….f-ing…..brilliant….

=======================

The strategy is supposed to be: “buy low, sell high”.

In a few years this might look brilliant. We’ll know then.

#169 Bram on 03.03.16 at 3:20 pm

#153 common sense on 03.03.16 at 12:52 pm
everyone else is buying and we’re selling….

Surely the contrarian strategy is the one that wins, historically.

When everyone is buying, it is the perfect opportunity to sell.

We’ll buy it back at half a cycle later, when everyone is selling.

Bram

#170 NTH on 03.03.16 at 3:50 pm

#166 YYC-Is-Still-A-Great-Place-To-Be on 03.03.16 at 2:09 pm
#144 NTH on 03.03.16 at 11:50 am

Unfortunately, sharing that info would reveal my identity right away, given the size of the builder.

I know there are more deals to be had. Altadore, Killarney, South Calgary, Marda Loop, and Bankview are all overbuilt. Kick some tires, hear some stories, you’ll find them.

===============================

Understood YYC! Don’t want to blow your cover ;-)

Those are some of our hoods too but honestly the realtors repping the builders all tell me they are ‘well-capitalized’ and don’t want to play ball (might be c-blocking me because they assume I’m a house-randy chick that moans for granite… *sigh*).
Appreciate your reply & for the encouraging local update.

Congrats, enjoy your new shack!

Not Tonight Honey

#171 family beagle on 03.03.16 at 3:56 pm

Saving for down payment in Vancouver.

O negative available in convenient pint sized carry-alls.
$50,000 obo
$5000 shipping
Units: 1

Bone marrow transplant
Cancer free geneology
Original tissue owner
$250k plus five star accomodation required.

Kidney, used, 1 owner, lots of mileage left, non drinker/non smoker, vegetarian, grandparent lived to 106 yrs.
$1 million firm starting bid.
$25000 shipping
Assignments okay

Conveniently located in 604. Foreign buyers with cash preferred.
All sales final. Requests for local donations or sob stories implicitly rejected.

#172 Investx on 03.03.16 at 3:59 pm

Buy back in after a year?

Timing the market, Garth?

#173 family beagle on 03.03.16 at 4:00 pm

Sorry, I forgot to add…

Buy now, or buy never.

hehe

#174 Siva on 03.03.16 at 4:00 pm

//wonder why the Indian government wants to slow gold demand. gold sucks anyway//

Indian govt is clueless. Utterly, completely clueless.

The current finance minister is an attorney. He has no idea what he is doing. It’s a cruel joke he is in charge of India’s finances.

#175 TurnerNation on 03.03.16 at 4:02 pm

It’s getting to be TVIX time again.

#176 Blacksheep on 03.03.16 at 4:08 pm

LadyInWaitingAndGivingUp # 16,

“I sold a house in the East in 2012 (made $200K and invested it) and moved to North Vancouver (now wishing I had not). Thinking the music was going to stop soon and my family of 5 could manage, we elected to rent a crappy but cheap home…and waited…and waited….and waited.”

“So Garth, your simple advice (at least in Vancouver) is untenable now.”
———————————————
Why didn’t you buy in North Van in 2012?

Ahh…you based one of your biggest financial decisions of a lifetime on the opinions of an on online economics blog host? Sure, Garth’s call was wrong and still is, but it’s your personal decision that has you in pickle, not his incorrect advise.

Been reading this blog since 2008. Sold my primary residence in 2009 and invested.

Did Garth’s blog influence my decision to sell, of course, but it was still my decision to sell, nobody else’s.

Just like it was my decision to get back into the market two years ago, regardless of Garth’s continued inaccurate forecast. My house in the Fraser Valley is up an easy 100K.

One has to learn to ‘think critically’ as no one cares more about your money than you do. The rents to expensive, blah, blah, blah, all irrelevant. Grew up in Delta, but moved to the Valley 25 years ago to be able to afford a starter house.

Such is life.

#177 Ole Doberman on 03.03.16 at 4:37 pm

Anyone notice gold lately – Gartho is it time to back up the truck and start stacking?

Just give us the signal.

#178 SWL1976 on 03.03.16 at 4:47 pm

#168 Russ

Blacksheep

Nuke #133,

“For what it’s worth the Canadian government just sold the last of its gold reserve to focus on better assets.”
—————————————–
Just….f-ing…..brilliant….

=======================

The strategy is supposed to be: “buy low, sell high”.

In a few years this might look brilliant. We’ll know then.

——————————-

Time will tell.

From my observations the Canadian government hasn’t exactly been too concerned over the years about making deals that are in the best interests of the citizens the are elected to serve.

Once again we have probably been sold out

#179 Mark on 03.03.16 at 4:51 pm

“Yet another crazy thing the government did today is cut its gold supply to zero.What does this mean? It means our country wants to have nothing if our currency collapses.”

You are aware that the Government of Canada (and the various provinces) have taxation powers against a disproportionate chunk of the worldwide gold industry. Right?

If gold even returns to $1900, Barrick would likely be a $4-$5B/year profit company (ie: $6-7B pre-tax profit company). Government would collect $2B/annum of that just in corporate income tax alone from just one company. Scale that up further in a gold mania and across the sheer disproportionality of Canadian-controlled gold mining investment around the world, and we could be talking about potentially hundreds of billions in Canadian corporate income tax revenue alone from the gold sector with almost no “cost” implied to the government in collecting such revenue. Not to mention capital gains and employment-based income taxes collected from domestic investors in the sector or even in the metal itself.

So no, no need for Canada to hold gold reserves like other countries may very well be advised to.

#180 SWL1976 on 03.03.16 at 5:01 pm

#150 Rexx Rock

Yet another crazy thing the government did today is cut its gold supply to zero. What does this mean? It means our country wants to have nothing if our currency collapses. Even tiny 3rd world countries have tonnes of gold to support its country in case of an emergency. Canada seems to do a lot of things to hurt its people for the future.

——————————-

The rason is probably to leave us begging for the Amero if and when we do get into finacial trouble.

The Amero, what I like to call the camero of currency

Usually driven by a low brow thief

#181 cramar on 03.03.16 at 5:11 pm

#153 common sense on 03.03.16 at 12:52 pm
Just read Canada sold off the last of it’s gold reserves…everyone else is buying and we’re selling….guess we have enough in the ground when the time comes and we need it. HA!

It’s Official: Canada Has Sold All Of Its Gold Reserves

——————-

Hopeless relict! That is until it is needed to compensate for a fiat currency that is inflating to nothing. Then you wish to had tons of the stuff. Another example of a myopic government sacrificing long-term insurance for short-term gains.

And also another example of selling off our natural resources for whatever we can get for them. Canada is the 5th largest gold producer in the world (2014):

http://www.mining.com/canadas-gold-mines-are-shooting-the-lights-out-57607/

We are quite content to sell to anyone who will buy. What do we need the stupid yellow stuff for anyway? An artifact of the past. No modern financial use here—move along!

Loonie is a fitting name for the symbol of our government!

#182 Retired Boomer WI on 03.03.16 at 5:14 pm

Mitt Romney did a RANT this morning, calling Donald Trump everything but a white man.

Hmmm… When the near & dear Republicans bash one of their own (who is leading in the primary wearing THEIR monicker)… I smell bullshit !

I have already determined Hillary, Sanders, Cruz, Bush, Kasich, and Rubio were not totally trustworthy… but the denunciation of Trump makes me think both establishments have something to fear.

Hmmm… Trump suddenly looks much better… still a beater, but much better.

#183 Blacksheep on 03.03.16 at 5:29 pm

Russ # 168,

“The strategy is supposed to be: “buy low, sell high”.”
———————————————–
No…it’s not.

Gold and precious metals are a store of wealth. Gold’s buying power doesn’t theoretically change. It might seem like gold has increased in value since the 1930’s when it was around $ 35 per ounce, now sitting at $1250 per, but in reality that just represents the loss of buying power of the US $.

100 years ago, one once of gold bought a decent suit and it still will today. In 1960 a silver quarter bought a gallon of gas and it’s silver content, still will today.

Try that with any paper currency or a steel quarter.

Central banks hold gold as a stabilizer / insurance. The Canadian gov. dumping all holdings just tells me just how ignorant (actually, they know exactly what their doing) the people handling things, really are. This is just a high profile visual segway to digital currencies where Gold becomes Garth’s, barbaric relic.

That’s OK, the less Cattle in the know, the better.

#184 Herb on 03.03.16 at 5:36 pm

#182 Retired Boomer,

read Stockmann –

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/mitt-romney-is-the-real-super-fraud-heres-the-proof-chapter-and-verse/

#185 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.03.16 at 5:46 pm

#179 Mark on 03.03.16 at 4:51 pm

I agree. gold sux

#186 Ontario's Left Coast on 03.03.16 at 5:53 pm

Whoa, Garth’s on CBC Radio right now! Give ’em he’ll Garth!

#187 Blacksheep on 03.03.16 at 5:57 pm

Mark #179,

“So no, no need for Canada to hold gold reserves”
———————————————–
Your way too intelligent, to give that ignorant a response.

Careful, your agenda is showing….again.

#188 Ronaldo on 03.03.16 at 6:51 pm

#133 Nuke on 03.03.16 at 10:14 am

”For what it’s worth the Canadian government just sold the last of its gold reserve to focus on better assets.”

Well, all they’ve had now for quite some time is 3.4 tons or around 110,000 ounces. That would be around 6.3 cubic feet which would fit in my fridge. Barrick produces around 6 million ounces annually. In 1965 Canada had 1023 tons. At current price those 3.4 tonnes would be worth about 187 million or so. Heck, they spent 1 billion on security for the G20 a few years back remember? This is a drop in the bucket.

http://www.24hgold.com/english/stat_country_detail.aspx?pays=Canada&deid=19576B1670

On the other hand, this is interesting.

http://reserves.mint.ca/Gold/InvestorNAV

#189 Smoking Man on 03.03.16 at 7:45 pm

T2 is such a tool. Yet I feel guilty chirping him. It’s like kicking a 2 day old puppy across the street with a steel toe boot..

Feel bad every time I chirp this child. He’s so stupid. Clueless idiolog wombat.

I can’t get my mind around the modern day liberal. They happily live in a fiction novel void of the reality that sourounds them.

#190 pow hound on 03.04.16 at 2:39 am

Hey Garth check it out:

https://www.reddit.com/r/alberta/comments/48vfpb/so_the_7_million_dollar_mansion_in_red_deer/

Some dude in red deer built a horrendously ugly house in red deer and then tried to sell it for 7 mil last summer.

Clearly didn’t work out…

#191 Doug in Delhi (no, not Delhi, ON) on 03.04.16 at 8:46 am

So why don’t more people sell when house prices go up? I don’t understand it and never will. Even if I live for a million years, I will never figure that out. I figured there would be a massive flood of for sale signs in pricey markets like Toronto and Vancouver long before now. I had visions some unscrupulous sellers would be going around at night removing other for sale signs to try and eliminate the competition. The only explanation I can possibly offer is obviously not everyone is a selfish greedy bastard like me.