Greed, meet fear

TO CONDO SIGN VISTING FRIEND

‘Saw this visiting friend’s upscale condo in Toronto.’ – Blog Dog Jeremy

 

Art lives in Okotoks, south of Calgary. “In my world,” he says, “I stay close to the busiest realtor to keep a pulse of what’s going on. Since April/May of last year, appraisers have been factoring in a 0.5% decrease/month in Okotoks/Calgary.”

In Saskatchewan, CTV just did a three-parter on the local economy. It reported…

The recent oil slump is hitting Lloydminster hard. Jobs have been lost, businesses have shut down and employment insurance is running out. Some people lost their job more than a year ago and still haven’t found work. Middle class families are utilizing soup kitchens for meals, men are shoveling driveways for extra cash and families are wondering and waiting when the economy will rebound. The city, which sits along the Saskatchewan-Alberta border, is on the edge.

Brad messaged me days ago while standing at a giant equipment auction. “I’m at the Ritchie Brothers sale in Edmonton at the moment,” he said. “Lots of gear from the oil patch going through.  Apparently breaking record inventory levels.  The April sale is supposed to be unimaginable so I’m told.  US dollar is strong so most of the gear is heading south.”

Mark lives in Vancouver. He emailed me: “My friend, a small time developer here, says this about it….’A bit crazy eh.  Don’t know where all this is going. It might be a mess later on.’ Believe it.”

What a strange country we’ve wrought. Two years ago the economy expanded by 2.5%. Last year growth crashed by half. In 2015 Canadians (households and governments) increased their debt by $78 billion – more than all the borrowing taken on during the great recession in 2009. We’ve run a trade deficit now for almost seven years. This year, after clawing back towards a balanced budget, Ottawa will plunge into $20 billion of red ink.

PISS AWAY modified About 150 drilling rigs in western Canada are about to be permanently idled, costing 20,250 more jobs. “We’re losing people,” says the industry association, “that are never coming back.” Meanwhile commodity prices are at 1990s levels, employment levels have sunk, the banks are laying off, Bombardier’s cooked and economists warn that consumers are on a high-speed journey towards the wall.

At the same time a house in North Toronto that shocked the locals four years ago when it was sold for $400,000 more than asking has been levelled, and a McMansion is rising in its stead. In Kitsilano, as reported here, some dork paid $735,000 over asking in a bidding war (five offers) for a regular home listed in excess of $3 million sitting on a normal 33-foot lot.

RBC’s latest ‘affordability’ report is anything but. What speculators (they used to be called ‘citizens’) have done to YVR house prices, and are in the process of doing in Toronto, is off the charts. Even the bank seems shocked.

“Single-detached homes have long since slipped out of reach for the average local homebuyer,” it says. “This implies that only a select few wealthy households can afford to own such properties at market prices.” To carry the average home in Van now takes an impossible 109% of the average family’s pre-tax income. Yes, that’s pre-tax. And it even factors in a hefty down payment of 25%, with financing at today’s ultra-low rates. In other words, this is impossible. Those who reach are assuming massive risk.

To buy a hunk of real estate there (not a detached home) requires the average income-earner to put away 10% of her income for six years to finance just a 5% deposit, and then 100% of take-home wages to carry it. Toronto’s marginally better – where a buyer has to save for almost five years, then devote 61% of their gross income (or about 85% of net pay) to finance it. Of course, devoting more than a third of your overall income to a house is too much, so RBC is now calling this 604-416 thing “dangerously unaffordable.”

But things change fast outside of the bubble cities where real estate has become a social disease. It takes less than three years to save for a house in Calgary, which can be carried for under 40% of average income. Winnipeg needs only two years’ worth of savings and Montreal hardly much more.

In fact that are two Canadas at this time – the one descending into economic stress and the other leveraging its way up a towering cliff. The first group heads for despair. The second grows euphoric. The first taste fear. The second, profit and greed. Standing at the Ritchie’s Auction in northern Alberta, Brad sees dreams being sold for pennies on the dollar. On the Westside of Vancouver a dentist friend is paying $3 million for a forty-foot lot. ‘But if I wait,’ he protested to me, ‘it’ll be $4 million.’

It’s impossible the average house in Canada – which requires 71% of average gross income to carry (with 25% down) – will retain its value in the current economy, unless families have an infinite capacity for debt. At greatest risk are those places where real estate’s turned into an investment commodity and prices divorced from fundamentals. Every month brings it closer. And while local markets in the GTA and the Lower Mainland have defied logic, rewarding owners, the tank empties fast.

What a stunning opportunity to reap a windfall, or learn about regret.

As Mark’s developer buddy said. Mess coming.

208 comments ↓

#1 Bram on 03.01.16 at 6:13 pm

I think the $4m scenario is possible:

A new high, or should I say, a new low for crap-shacks?
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/barbara+yaffe+fear+loathing+vancouver+real+estate/11755231/story.html?__lsa=1ac1-6899

Nice ‘hood though!
https:[email protected],-123.1994638,3a,75y,101.98h,86.11t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1scq-hjUyu74dASYH1E0SSeQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

#2 HOLY COW !!! on 03.01.16 at 6:20 pm

Totally unbelievable!!

#3 Bram on 03.01.16 at 6:20 pm

#1 Bram
Sorry, wrong link
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/vancouver+house+left+deteriorate+market+million/11752938/story.html?__lsa=1ac1-6899

#4 ole Doberman on 03.01.16 at 6:21 pm

Garto i just drove by a couple places in calgary and both had sold signs. Choked i was, not sure this is ever going to end

#5 gladiator on 03.01.16 at 6:22 pm

The machines are a-coming!
RE buyers in Van and TO don’t need food, clothes, entertainment, savings for retirement – they plop it all into RE! And even more of that!

Am I to believe that this is mostly caused by locals with local jobs making average salaries? Sorry but nope.

A friend of mine built and sold 3 mansions in Toronto in the last 4 years. He sold them all to wealthy Chinese represented here by, well, locals. He says that out of all buyers in the 2+ million segment, a minority are local highly-paid professionals, and the vast majority it is the Chinese, Iranians and Russians.
Go figure…

#6 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 03.01.16 at 6:22 pm

The math is not adding up here. Since Garth has “proven’ that at least 95% of the buyers are local, and since we have been taking on massive amounts of Mortgage debt, and given the the greater than 100% of income to fund the payment means the banks are not the lenders, I can only assume we have a MASSIVE shadow banking system, over and above the bank of mom and dad that is funding this madness!

#7 ronh on 03.01.16 at 6:23 pm

There has been a lot of Manitoba, Sask. and Alberta license
plated cruising around the South Okanagan this winter.
No jobs here, retirees coming?

#8 Frank on 03.01.16 at 6:25 pm

The mess has been coming for a decade now. Bubbles last a couple years tops. This isn’t a traditional asset bubble, traditional rules don’t apply.

#9 hope & ruin on 03.01.16 at 6:25 pm

What if all the mania in Vancouver is the off-shore chinese buyers performing a massive pump-and-dump on gullible Canadians? I mean. They are the smart money.

#10 Bonhomme Carnaval on 03.01.16 at 6:25 pm

It will be epic!

#11 Greg Soprovich on 03.01.16 at 6:29 pm

Hi Garth

I’m so happy I listened to your advice and got liquid elling my house 2 1/2 years ago. I diversified the cash no more than 40percent maple … Phoebe.

How would you suggest folks like us profit on the crash when it comes?

Greg

BTW Even then Ottawa was significantly slowing …

#12 Blacksheep on 03.01.16 at 6:30 pm

“To buy a hunk of real estate there (not a detached home) requires the average income-earner to put away 10% of her income for six years to finance just a 5% deposit, and then 100% of take-home wages to carry it. Toronto’s marginally better – where a buyer has to save for almost five years, then devote 61% of their gross income (or about 85% of net pay) to finance it. Of course, devoting more than a third of your overall income to a house is too much, so RBC is now calling this 604-416 thing “dangerously unaffordable.””
————————————-
The above mentioned math, clearly does not work for the average 70K wage slave / household.

Yet the housing supply is unable to meet the insatiable demand for RE, constantly pushing prices up, up, up, (in the 604/F.V. anyway)

So who exactly, is buying this bloody RE?

#13 VanMan on 03.01.16 at 6:31 pm

It’s obvious to any sane person that lives in Vancouver a/o the Lower Mainland what is happening here. Anybody from the outside can have their opinion but, it’s just that. Rampant speculation by all, including locals and foreign money including laundering and other illegal activities have launched this place into the stratosphere. It’s easy to sit back and say what goes up must come down, and perhaps it’s true, however when the descent is only a fraction of the liftoff does it really matter in the long-run?

On a short-term horizon there may be pain for some, but with AirBnb, vacation rentals and HELOC opportunities why sell short term… hang on and ride this one. Just like any market there are ups and downs. If you collect dividends (rental income) just ride it out. I know several people that have quit their jobs and are vacation rental owners and are making considerable more income now then when employed. The world is changing and the failure to recognize that once was is no longer is what will bring the real pain.

#14 Bank of Millenial on 03.01.16 at 6:35 pm

How can banks underwrite the risk in an environment like this? The payoff is asymmetric given interest rates are so low.

#15 Mike in the Okanagan on 03.01.16 at 6:35 pm

Yeah I hate those damn “retuned” cheques.

#16 Doug t on 03.01.16 at 6:36 pm

Neither a borrower nor a lender be.
Do not forget: stay out of debt.
Think twice, and take this good advice from me:
Guard that old solvency!
There’s just one other thing you ought to do.
To thine own self be true.

#17 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 03.01.16 at 6:37 pm

A Modest Proposal:
My idea would create hundreds of thousands of high paying jobs. It would not require the government to go into debt, and in fact would likely result in a massive surplus budget. Furthermore, we would be a model to the world in terms of environmentalism and new urbanism.

It would require the sacrifice of Vancouverites who would need to be compensated massively for eminent domain.

Garth leads a delegation (armed with a selfie stick) to Beijing with the express purpose of selling Vancouver in one shot for $2 Trillion (2T).

T2 would take the 2T and build a beautiful (environmentally friendly, new urban) city somewhere nice, like on an ocean or near a mountain. All the eminent domained peeps would have their say and move there.

#18 JB on 03.01.16 at 6:37 pm

I was actually surprised by the lack of discount on equipment at the Ritchie Bros sale in Edmonton. Better deals were had in 2010. 1987, now that was pennies on the dollar.

#19 common sense on 03.01.16 at 6:38 pm

What’s the problem here?

Oil is on a run up, CDN $ is gaining steam, stock markets climbing, banks will almost lend to anyone with a pulse AND the government is on their side.

Everything is ROSY…

Please no negatives please..It’s UN democratic of you.

#20 Dominoes Lining Up on 03.01.16 at 6:41 pm

And the debt denial continues, with people rationalizing their lack of any other savings, saying that their home “equity” will make everything good.

http://www.advisor.ca/news/industry-news/too-few-older-canadians-contributing-to-rrsps-poll-201271

Yesterday banks were mostly quiet on RRSP deadline day. No more extended hours til 10 p.m., they all closed at regular hours. Slightly longer waits on the telephone, but that was about it. And lending standards have become quietly tougher – more applications needed, used to be you could walk in and get an RRSP loan in minutes, not anymore.

#21 X on 03.01.16 at 6:42 pm

Garth, what are the current odds for the US Fed to increase again in a couple weeks? 60-40?

Current market odds: 9%. — Garth

#22 p123 on 03.01.16 at 6:42 pm

Unfortunately it’s still crazy in Vancouver around 300 homes sold on a daily basis. I do not see this coming to an end anytime soon.

I don’t know how it’ll end or if it’ll end, this is becoming absolutely crazy.

#23 A Canadian Abroad on 03.01.16 at 6:42 pm

Buy when others are fearful, sell when they are greedy.

Today: 67% Stock Market, 33% Cash, 0% real estate

Purchased another good sized chuck of my balanced mutual fund (ATB203). Will dollar cost average more into it as the months progress.

Realestate is an overbought single class asset, it will have it’s day again, but not for years to come.

#24 Alvina Knows on 03.01.16 at 6:45 pm

The Repubic needs to tune on their spell checker.

#25 Another Albertan on 03.01.16 at 6:50 pm

Re: Ritchie Bros. Auction

Last spring, RB ran a _massive_ auction at their yard in Nisku. Prices on heavy equipment (a.k.a. Yellow Iron a.k.a. Caterpillar) were ridiculous. Like road-building kit with 200,000+ km selling for upward of 85% of new. That’s mental. Buyers were throwing down huge wads of cash to pick up gear.

The thought was that oil would have a V-shaped recovery and the pricing structure would be on a significant upward trajectory by September/October 2015. Buyers did not want to be left on the sidelines when winter drilling lease construction tenders came out, so they bought all the gear that was jettisoned by their competitors.

I would suggest that a good portion of the upcoming auction listing will be that same kit that RB sold back nearly 12 months ago.

And it ain’t gonna go for 85% of new.

Everyone else’s mileage may vary.

#26 off-key on 03.01.16 at 6:51 pm

cheques “retuned”?
I just love it when someone shows the world they are too lazy to spell-check before printing.

#27 Jimmy on 03.01.16 at 6:51 pm

RBC offer in the mail yesterday.
In the past, usually a gift or cash to transfer SAVINGS from other banks to RBC.
This offer pays 100 cash to transfer 5000 DEBT from other banks.

#28 Babbler on 03.01.16 at 6:53 pm

“And while local markets in the GTA and the Lower Mainland have defied logic, rewarding owners, the tank empties fast.” – Garth

—————————————————

Honestly Garth, what defies logic is that you keep preaching this stuff while you become more wrong with each passing month. I’m certainly no genius, but I don’t see what can sink, or even wound, this market. If you do, then tell us what you see as doing so. Certainly not interest rates. They are going nowhere and you know it. And so does everyone else.

#29 Dean McWhurton on 03.01.16 at 6:53 pm

Garth, The folks buying for 3 million etc, why not just buy a good home for say $500,000 or $1 Million in Winnipeg (A good location in the city of course) and then just take another to live off and then the last million to the casino or buy gold bullion or buy a high flying dividend stock for income? They could get so much freedom if they bought somewhere else and with those prices, who needs an income if they can afford it!

#30 JSS on 03.01.16 at 6:59 pm

On the bright side…

Dividend increases in the last week from:
– RBC
– TD
– CIBC
– Scotia
– Stantec

So stay happy, diversified, and rub your tummy!

#31 TheSpangler on 03.01.16 at 6:59 pm

If 95% of these sales are local (as Garth has been quoting), does that mean we have people extremely leveraged up? I know the bank of mom and dad do finance a bit of these sales, but $735k over asking?? This doesn’t pass the smell test. It must be all the dispensary money being parked somewhere.

You cannot extrapolate average sales from one $4 million transaction. Use your noodle. — Garth

#32 Nemesis on 03.01.16 at 7:08 pm

“At greatest risk are those places where real estate’s turned into an investment commodity and prices divorced from fundamentals.” – HonGT

#SpeakingOf”ThosePlaces”… #’InvestmentCommodities’… #And”DivorcedFromFundamentals”…

(Telegraph) – “Ghost Weddings”: Families pay up to £10,000 on the black market for a ‘corpse bride’ companion for a dead bachelor

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/12176054/Shock-in-Chinese-village-as-womens-corpses-stolen-for-use-in-ghost-weddings.html

#33 james on 03.01.16 at 7:08 pm

That photo suggests a business opportunity!

A payday loans kiosk in every high end boutique condo. This scheme would be win-win for those owners who are tapped out.

I guess the only drawback is that 80% of some of the condos in Toronto seem to be unoccupied, so business may be lighter than anticipated.

#34 Smartalox on 03.01.16 at 7:17 pm

@Hope and Ruin #9:

I doubt that any wealthy foreigners who buy properties in Vancouver at record high prices are the ‘smart money’. In the Globe and Mail’s report on ‘shadow flipping’ a few weeks ago, I recall a passage that described how agents with one brokerage involved in flipping were told to “pick their clients up from the airport… not to leave them alone, act as translators, etc.” basically to engage in high-pressure sales tactics with these people, from the moment they set foot on Canadian soil, until the moment they buy at a greatly inflated price. Poor rubes, never had a chance.

Then what? You think those agents want to be your friend, once they’ve been paid?

Sound like a classic pump and dump to me. Watch the movie “Boiler Room” or “Glengarry Glen Ross” to see how it’s done.

Nah, the ‘Smart Money’ in this situation are the ones that bought low, and sold high. The ones that bought 15, 20, 25 even 30 years or more ago, and who sell these properties for multi-million dollar, tax-free gains.

#35 Babbler on 03.01.16 at 7:18 pm

#26 off-key on 03.01.16 at 6:51 pm

cheques “retuned”?

I just love it when someone shows the world they are too lazy to spell-check before printing.

——————————————————

What are talking about? Spell check should not catch that “retuned”. It’s perfectly valid. You tune something. And then, if it didn’t work, or needs some more, you “retune”.

#36 Cdn Mom on 03.01.16 at 7:21 pm

#20

“Yesterday banks were mostly quiet on RRSP deadline day. No more extended hours til 10 p.m., they all closed at regular hours. Slightly longer waits on the telephone, but that was about it. ”

Made RRSP contribution online with just a click. Who needs the bricks and mortar?

#37 hope & ruin on 03.01.16 at 7:21 pm

#144 Mark on 03.01.16 at 2:43 pm

Too much compensation for relatively un-skilled rank and file employees…..with mere jackscrews significantly out-earning most professional engineering talent. A good flush is what the sector needed, and seems to be what it is getting.

I think I figured out why Mark can’t get a job. What a jack-ass. Mark, those “mere jackscrews” become your co-workers.

Let me guess. You’re one of the “skilled” employees. lol

#38 Retired Boomer WI on 03.01.16 at 7:23 pm

Just in from the land of the mouse (FL)… Canada is not the only world of make believe. Try Florida home of more thirsty underwear than I ever dreamed was produced, and they can’t drive well either. My wife’s cousin and his wife might be typical. He was self employed, until he contracted ALS, 2 years ago. Disability income since, his wife is also disabled.

While visiting the widow of my wife’s cousin in Sarasota, where the moneyed, and the poor live.

While there we took the lady out for lunch and cocktails at a new restaurant in the nearby mall, the I spied three Rolls Royce automobiles. just shopping apparently, parked in different areas, and of different vintages. Every broke schmuck can get a loan for a Benz for a BMW but, a Rolls is a different class. They even let me park my 7 year old beater Ford there.

Now the cousin’s widow is getting their house ready for sale. Mortgage too big ($127,000 is all) but on social security, and a cold spouse it isn’t going to be done.
Her savings… laughable, the car is paid for (no rolls, try Chevy). The money from the house is her “retirement fund” yet to be determined….

He was only 62, she is as well, disabled so going to work is not an option here. Sad stuff, the nice 3 br home has a pool, recently fully updated, will hopefully sell quick.

Sad part, she just lost hubby last November now the house is going on the block, she has crap savings, a meager income, and rents are not going down either….
golden years, eh? Don’t bet the house one it…

Idiots we have in excess here. If you need any, we can ship them north cheap!!!

#39 steerage steward on 03.01.16 at 7:26 pm

Unable to find the data but an interesting question to answer would be..

The average SFH in Vancouver sells for $1.83 million (Jan 2016). Assuming a 20% down, 25 year mortgage at 4.46%, and 10% carrying costs (taxes, maintenance, etc), would mean $9414/mth or about $122k/year.

Assuming a bank is only going to lend to someone that has max 30% of take home to mthly payments, a person would need $366k after tax income to afford a home. The interesting question then becomes how many people in Vancouver actually have that income, and have $305k for the down payment? My guess would be not nearly enough to support current sales.

#40 cto on 03.01.16 at 7:27 pm

#5 gladiator

I live in TO as well with realtress sister in law. Same evidence as you see. All chinese. Maybe canadian chinese , but chinese ethnicity. Family overseas?
The only revenue canada is getting these days is from momey made overseas.
Really, …what a shell we have become from what we once were.
I guess you blame the average canadian.

Like you blame all people with yellow skin? — Garth

#41 Mark on 03.01.16 at 7:28 pm

“If 95% of these sales are local (as Garth has been quoting), does that mean we have people extremely leveraged up?”

Yes.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/investigations/the-real-estate-technique-fuelling-vancouvers-housing-market/article28634868/

““It worries me a lot that this could all come crashing down. I worry about it all the time,” said one Re/Max agent, Khalid Hasan, who said he owns or co-owns 15 to 20 properties, all destined for resale.”

How many other Realtors are like Mr. Hasan? I suspect many. Because the real buyers have largely left the room for the reasons that Garth has explained over and over again.

#42 Toronto Dweller on 03.01.16 at 7:30 pm

Vancouver and Toronto are becoming global safe hotspots of real estate, just like London or San Francisco where wealthy can park their money and knowing it’s safe from their corrupt government reach. And just like in London only high income/high net worth locals can join the party, the majority will be renters. There might be a correction but waiting for a crash so that you can get in would be futile.

#43 Andrew on 03.01.16 at 7:34 pm

“To carry the average home in Van now takes an impossible 109% of the average family’s pre-tax income”

So Garth, you state that the average local resident in Vancouver simply cannot afford a house as it costs 109% of their average PRE-TAX income. Yet you insist that it isn’t foreign money fueling this fire? That makes absolutely no sense to me. This is beyond the low interest rates and astronomical debt argument you refer to. Once you get to the stage that a house costs over 100% of average income, it physically can’t be local buyers fueling the market.

Sure it can. Not all buyers are newbies, and every move-up sale transfers equity and augments debt. You have no point when we speak of detached homes only. — Garth

#44 Bob on 03.01.16 at 7:37 pm

Mess is coming… but how messy?

I believe real-estate is over-valued, I would like to think prices could come down at least 30%

But what do you make of it, if last year went up 15%, this year goes up another 15%… then next year goes down 30%?

Or do you still maintain a long protracted period of price declines (like 15% down one year, then 5% following?)

#45 Mark on 03.01.16 at 7:37 pm

“Garth, The folks buying for 3 million etc, why not just buy a good home for say $500,000 or $1 Million in Winnipeg (A good location in the city of course) “

The ‘buyers’ largely aren’t buying to use the houses. Many transactions may very well be taking place between loosely related parties simply in an attempt to set higher valuations in an attempt to unload otherwise depreciating properties onto whatever lemmings they can still manage to find.

Its a pretty common tactic in the (junior) stock world. Often called “pump and dump”. Where a few modestly sized blocks of stock are crossed at artificially elevated prices between related entities, along with a bunch of hype, in an effort to boost the price and unload otherwise depreciating securities. One of the oldest tricks in the book.

#46 Harry Fine on 03.01.16 at 7:40 pm

“Canadian GDP reveals ‘somber story’ as crude crash holds back economy”,

But wasn’t the Poloz Plan to Crush the Dollar supposed to have led to greater exports and ‘Sunny Ways’ all around? Bwahahahahahahahaha have we ever allowed ourselves to be screwed. We sure ain’t seeing any leadership from Junior and his gang.

#47 IKnow on 03.01.16 at 7:43 pm

Massive risk for Vancouver detached house ownership?
May be a matter of psychological perspective.

I think most current buyers of a detached house are either:
1. Foreign Ham
2. Benefactors of such Ham, i.e. house lottery winners
3. Those who saw their own houses increased many times in value and want to get other properties

Etc

Many are in this position: bought a house 500k 15 years ago, now it’s worth 3M, a paper gain if 2.5M.
Such individual is not too scared by a soft correction (that’s Garth’s acknowledgement, no big crash for Vancouver).
Do take out 800k to finance another detached house in a farther away suburb is not deemed too risky.
Or at least the risk is very bearable.

I named this blog for them. — Garth

#48 canadian on 03.01.16 at 7:43 pm

What a day Garth. By the time we wake up tomorrow, we will be living in a world where the Republican Party is reduced to a xenophobic know-nothing rump, and the Republican establishment has to support Hillary Clinton of all people.

Strange times. Watching Canada lose all economic sense, America lose all political sense. It made me pick up Zweig’s World of Yesterday, in fact.

#49 Ontario's Left Coast on 03.01.16 at 7:44 pm

Re Today’s photo: Are these people bouncing rent cheques of their condo fees? Either way, sad.

#50 Ned on 03.01.16 at 7:49 pm

Or you add another 160,000 “economic immigrants” to sop up all the excess houses and another 25,000 refugees (that are all getting their bills payed by truedoah) to soak up all the condos and were back to being square.

You envy refugees? — Garth

#51 broader mind on 03.01.16 at 7:52 pm

At risk of being ostracized, I am prepared to call this the Turn. Oil, USA,commodities, interest rates and maple equities all on an upward trajectory to normal.This path will finally collapse Canadian real estate as $’s return to equities and rates normalize. The perceived safety of the Canadian home will shift as the world economy heals.

#52 IHCTD9 on 03.01.16 at 7:53 pm

#151 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.01.16 at 4:24 pm
@136 IH Guy

Fair enough. Definitely given advice in some of the situations you’ve described…and it wasn’t well received. People do not like challenges to their worldview.

Someday we should meet and have a beer. Despite a bit of a difference in our political leanings (trickle down=failure) I think you and I are much alike.
___________________________________________

I’m pretty easy going regardless of your politics. In fact, I seem to befriend lefties easily, can’t get comfy with angry hard righties, and somehow married a socialist :). I guess I’m a bit right of a red tory, despite how I may sound here on GF :).

#53 max on 03.01.16 at 7:57 pm

I knew a real estate agent back in the 1980’s. He was a top agent. He hired college kids and new licensed realtors to go out and get him listing. He even overpriced to get a listing. He was the top agent because he had the most listings in town. I believe the boom is real estate board hype. Mixed with agents scrambling to get listings.

This will fizzle out by summer.

#54 Herf on 03.01.16 at 7:57 pm

“The first group heads for despair. The second grows euphoric.

So, the country suffers from economic bipolar disorder? What’s the economic equivalent of lithium?

#55 Mark on 03.01.16 at 7:59 pm

“Or you add another 160,000 “economic immigrants” to sop up all the excess houses and another 25,000 refugees (that are all getting their bills payed by truedoah) to soak up all the condos and were back to being square”

Remember that those refugees are mostly relatively poor, yet they are potential entrants to the construction labour pool. So in the short term, sure, they might drive up prices, but over the long term, immigration, particularly of working age but not-skilled-for-the-white-collar professional workforce people will drive down housing prices by increasing supply.

I think people have the tendency to ignore newcomers’ to Canada’s contributions to the construction labour pool. Its definitely a sector that slurps up the immigrant labour and actually has been paying decent wages over the past number of years allowing many newcomers to succeed and thrive in Canada.

#56 OttawaGuyRenting on 03.01.16 at 8:00 pm

The economy is flailing at the bottom.

Grocery stores and Restos pushing “Value” non stop.

2 hamburgers for $6 or sales on every item at Loblaws

I see it all around me.

Garth please shed light on Ottawa if you have deets.

Commercial – RetAil space is grinding as well

#57 IHCTD9 on 03.01.16 at 8:05 pm

#13 VanMan on 03.01.16 at 6:31 pm
Rampant speculation by all, including locals and foreign money including laundering and other illegal activities have launched this place into the stratosphere. It’s easy to sit back and say what goes up must come down, and perhaps it’s true, however when the descent is only a fraction of the liftoff does it really matter in the long-run?
_______________________________________

I agree with the rampant speculation by all parties assertion.

What happens when greed and euphoria is replaced by panic and fear?

I predict much wailing and gnashing of teeth before too long.

A good stat to have would be of those who are buying these pumped up seven figure houses, what percentage of them have owned more than 3 – 4 houses in the last 10 years? That would answer the speculation question once and for all (if it is even still questionable at this point).

Still an unprecedented opportunity for Vancouverites who own to cash in big before the market blows – I wouldn’t hesitate. I couldn’t save a lifetime and end up with the cash some of these folks can get just selling their house.

Dump it and retire to small town BC already!

#58 IKnow on 03.01.16 at 8:06 pm

https://hk.mobi.yahoo.com/home/市區樓淪陷-港島公屋冧價五成-215617779.html

Above in chinese.
Talk about some cheapest flats in Hong Kong are crashing, tens of percents off peak.

Effect on Vancouver?
Don’t know yet.
Maybe many hongkongers want to get out, another emigration wave to Vancouver.
Price at YVR always go up!?

#59 Peter S on 03.01.16 at 8:10 pm

China trying to slow down currency leaving…

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-35601102

#60 Herf on 03.01.16 at 8:10 pm

#44 Bob

“Mess is coming… but how messy?”

When you’re over extended:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GChcz7auw5E

#61 pathcontrolmonk on 03.01.16 at 8:13 pm

“What speculators (they used to be called ‘citizens’) have done to YVR house prices, and are in the process of doing in Toronto, is off the charts. ”

Garth, seems like you are implying that speculators are non-citizens? Perhaps you are finally coming around to the reality that this insanity is being fueled by foreign money launderers?

Great article by Diane Francis pointing out “conceal estate” and how Canada’s anti-money laundering laws lack teeth.

http://business.financialpost.com/diane-francis/all-canadians-are-paying-the-price-for-conceal-estate-in-toronto-and-vancouver

The opposite. Citizens are now specuvestors. And Diane Francis is not credible. — Garth

#62 For those about to flop... on 03.01.16 at 8:14 pm

I’m not feeling the best this week, I think I have that bug that has been going around.
As well as that I’ve been having a recurring nightmare ,where I have been sentenced to life in jail for a crime I did not commit.
At first I am alone in the cell and think that things can’t get any worse and then the warden comes around and opens the door and says ” Here’s you new cell mate”.
I look up and this white version of Steve Urkel wonders in.” Hi, My names Mark ,do you like to talk about the sale mix” he asks…

Now that’s enough to make any man sick…

M41BC

#63 A Yank in BC on 03.01.16 at 8:16 pm

#48 canadian on 03.01.16 at 7:43 pm

The Republican establishment (whatever that is) would never “support” Hillary Clinton under any circumstances. She is a Democrat.. or didn’t you know that.

#64 Renter's Revenge! on 03.01.16 at 8:17 pm

#29 Dean McWhurton on 03.01.16 at 6:53 pm

Good point. Summers in Manitoba are beautiful. Presumably people prefer to live in Vancouver because the winters are milder, but with an extra 2 mil you could spend the entire winter down south and visit Vancouver anytime you wanted.

#65 Greg on 03.01.16 at 8:22 pm

You could buy a 100 year old house in Vancouver or this:

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/blog/business/2016/02/grammy-winner-alicia-keys-selling-her-phoenix-home.html

#66 TCContrarian on 03.01.16 at 8:26 pm

Oil at (almost) $35/bbl. Looks like we’ve seen the bottom in this and other commodities.
Bodes well for the CAD and TSX. Now we’ll see how ugly the reversal gets in the YVR Real Estate Bubble.

“Greed” meets “fear” – reminds me of another favourite phrase:
Luck = when “preparation” meets “opportunity”

#67 pathcontrolmonk on 03.01.16 at 8:29 pm

The opposite. Citizens are now specuvestors. And Diane Francis is not credible. — Garth

Citizens are specuvestors trying to cash in on money laundering by foreigners gone wild. Anyway, you just dislike Diane Francis because she believes in ‘Manifest Destiny’.

Actually I dislike her because I know her. Do you? — Garth

#68 JSS on 03.01.16 at 8:31 pm

To all those envious whiny blog dogs lamenting foreigners buying high end homes…one day even their well will run dry.
No one stayed wealthy by throwing money away on high end consumption. Give it some time and patience.

Ask yourself…would you either be owned by the bank or own the bank?

#69 Protect Canada on 03.01.16 at 8:31 pm

#40 Cto
I agree with 99% of Garth but I don’t understand why Garth doesn’t want to acknowledge the fact about Chinese buyers. Maybe in the cooked/unclear/unaudited stats a resident is the legal owner but in reality it could be money from overseas using locals as a shelter. Numerous people already shared their experiences and he keeps labeling the posters as racist.

Wrong. I label racist comments as racist. — Garth

#70 TurnerNation on 03.01.16 at 8:32 pm

“Middle class families are utilizing soup kitchens for meals, men are shoveling driveways for extra cash ”

I maintain this is the deliberate plan being rolled out world wide.
– Break the family unit
– Break and humiliate men.
– Force men into large cities looking for work and into condo/apartment ghettos.
– There, they’ll be fodder to drug dealers .

(Drugs: one of the top 5 world businesses controlled from the top of the pyramid downwards. Hint: we’re at its bottom)

If there is any doubt look down south to the more successful roll-out:

Linh Dinh’s masterful photo blog.
Click on any US city there, witness once proud workers, homeowners, veterans on the street. Huge ghettos where Walmart and McDonald’s thrive.

Postcards from the End of [the] America[n Empire]
http://linhdinhphotos.blogspot.ca/search/label/Atlanta

– At least we have selfies of our elite actors (T2, Barry) and genderless washrooms, all that matters.

#71 IHCTD9 on 03.01.16 at 8:32 pm

#25 Another Albertan on 03.01.16 at 6:50 pm
Re: Ritchie Bros. Auction
_____________________________________

Auctions also make folks stupid. After all the trouble and money required to get in, every dude sitting there is hell bent on making all the BS worthwhile.

I arranged for the auction company to liquidate the assets of my former employer, and decided to sit in on the auction itself just for laughs.

Laughs is what I got. Watched a well used diesel generator go for more than I bought it for new, trucks that I couldn’t sell on Kijiji before the bankruptcy for 1500.00 went for 4500.00, welders that had soaked up thousands of hours going for 75% of new, mobile diesel compressors that were broken going for what a good used one would go for. No deals to be had, those auction guys know how to prep and play a crowd that is for sure – I was very impressed.

#72 Jackie Bling on 03.01.16 at 8:36 pm

Meanwhile , RBA stock has gone from 39 to 32, the smart money obviously doesn’t believe that Ritchie Bros ‘good fortune’ has legs.

And is the dentists paying 3 million for a lot the reason I’m paying 1400 dollars for a simple filling these days?

#73 tundra pete on 03.01.16 at 8:42 pm

Love the pic, sums things up rather nicely. Hardly a taste of whats to come. A deal for cheque bouncers. When I had my retail operations, long before debit and electronic, I set the NSF fee at $100.00. It solved that problem fast. At least when they bounce they come back and you can use them again!

Why anyone would use cheques these days is beyond me. There is certainly going to be an increase in email scams and credit card fraud in the upcoming economy. Food banks will be as busy as the Kegs were in the oil boom. Homeless camps will be popping up all over the place. It is not all bad news though, I’ve heard a lot of bankers have been getting decent bonuses.

#74 Willem on 03.01.16 at 8:43 pm

Local buyers; yes /no – Offshore buyers; yes /no; without real documented, meaningful data, both Garth and those that point fingers have no credibility!!http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/diane-francis/all-canadians-are-paying-the-price-for-conceal-estate-in-toronto-and-vancouver&pubdate=2016-02-29

#75 acdel on 03.01.16 at 8:46 pm

#55 Mark

Nice theory if it really worked that way. My suggestion is to speak to people in the industry and allow them to inform you on what is actually occurring.

#76 Protect Canada on 03.01.16 at 8:46 pm

I don’t see how mentioning mostly Chinese are buying RE can be racist. The point here is not the skin color but the origin of the money of those buying RE; our government is failing to protect the locals, and is very likely to be helping money launderers from overseas. If you want to think darker, maybe the communists controlling China have found a peaceful way of buying foreign land.

#77 doomsday preppar on 03.01.16 at 8:49 pm

I own a semi detached in an Ottawa ‘burb…about a year ago I came home to a sign in my neighbor’s window stating that the bank now owned the property. Was really sad to see my neighbors of 8 or so years have to pack all their crap and move in the dead of winter, Shortly after the power of sale sign went up. After a month or so the house was purchased by an Iranian family who completely gutted it, and replaced everything with new…roof, furnace windows, baths etcetc…took all summer and fall fixing it up
The house has been for sale now for about 5 months, with no action. They had an “open house” last weekend, and they didn’t even shovel the walk to get people in!
Seems to me that this was a good way to park a whack of cash…they will never be able to sell for what they have in it…I did the math…it just sits there vacant…
So why?

#78 pathcontrolmonk on 03.01.16 at 8:49 pm

Actually I dislike her because I know her. Do you? — Garth

Ouch, I hope she doesn’t read your blog.

#79 Willem on 03.01.16 at 8:51 pm

The Provincial and Federal Governments cannot fix the crazy real estate market. Their role should be to implement the tools needed to track all transactions and create equitable and encompassing tax rules so that excessive tax evasion is discovered and dealt with.

#80 Smoking Man on 03.01.16 at 8:58 pm

#70 TurnerNation on 03.01.16 at 8:32 pm
“Middle class families are utilizing soup kitchens for meals, men are shoveling driveways for extra cash ”

I maintain this is the deliberate plan being rolled out world wide.
– Break the family unit
– Break and humiliate men.
– Force men into large cities looking for work and into condo/apartment ghettos.
– There, they’ll be fodder to drug dealers .

(Drugs: one of the top 5 world businesses controlled from the top of the pyramid downwards. Hint: we’re at its bottom)

If there is any doubt look down south to the more successful roll-out:

Linh Dinh’s masterful photo blog.
Click on any US city there, witness once proud workers, homeowners, veterans on the street. Huge ghettos where Walmart and McDonald’s thrive.

Postcards from the End of [the] America[n Empire]
http://linhdinhphotos.blogspot.ca/search/label/Atlanta

– At least we have selfies of our elite actors (T2, Barry) and genderless washrooms, all that matters.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Just about sums it up… Nice post

Trump is our last chance

#81 Westsider on 03.01.16 at 8:58 pm

Of course there is no data, so we live by anecdotes, but the house on my left was sold to offshore owners and the house on my right was sold to offshore investors last week and today the house across the street is up for sale.It is such a coincidence that the 5% of houses sold to offshore investors are all on my street or on west 3rd.

#82 cramar on 03.01.16 at 8:59 pm

#35 Babbler on 03.01.16 at 7:18 pm
#26 off-key on 03.01.16 at 6:51 pm

cheques “retuned”?

I just love it when someone shows the world they are too lazy to spell-check before printing.

——————————————————

What are talking about? Spell check should not catch that “retuned”. It’s perfectly valid. You tune something. And then, if it didn’t work, or needs some more, you “retune”.

+++++++++++++++++++++++

Actually it is a “proof-reading issue”. Being a technical writer in pre-retirement days, I learned to proof read my own writing. But it is only 95% effective. You really need a second person who is good at it to proof read your text after you think you’ve gotten everything.

#83 IM in C on 03.01.16 at 9:00 pm

Garth. When is a lending institution legally obliged to start foreclosure on a mortgage that is in arrears ? My understanding is , they don’t have any obligation. so if and when the great downturn hits, what prevents banks from offering to ‘stop the clock ‘ and put the mortgages on interest only payments?

#84 common sense on 03.01.16 at 9:10 pm

Just read Hillary tweeted

“America needs more love and kindness”

Gee that sounds so sincere, warm and fuzzy like T2.

How about tweeting “America needs another politician bought and paid for by Goldman Sachs….Just like ME!”

#85 Vundo on 03.01.16 at 9:10 pm

#42 Toronto Dweller: Fine. Waiting for a correction is futile. I will never get in. Good. I dislike being locked in a cage anyway. 20 years of debt sounds like prison to me. I would rather “pay someone else’s mortgage” than sacrifice my freedom.

#86 Vampire Studies GMST 454 on 03.01.16 at 9:18 pm

China, like Canada or the USA, is a country, not a race of
people. Replacing “Chinese” with “Dutch” would not trigger the same reaction.

#87 SWL1976 on 03.01.16 at 9:18 pm

#70 TurnerNation

If there is any doubt look down south to the more successful roll-out:

Linh Dinh’s masterful photo blog.
Click on any US city there, witness once proud workers, homeowners, veterans on the street. Huge ghettos where Walmart and McDonald’s thrive.

Postcards from the End of [the] America[n Empire]
http://linhdinhphotos.blogspot.ca/search/label/Atlanta

—————————

Those are some powerful images

They tell quite a tale

One really has to be either oblivious or willfully ignorant with rose coloured glasses to not see where we as a society and civilization are heading.

Enjoy the little things in life and try to prepare the best you can for what is coming, because the ugly truth is really starting show.

Denial will only get you so far folks, and the cracks are really starting to show. Have a closer look at recent tee vee series and the ‘entertainment’ that is coming out of Hollywood…

There is a hidden message, and we are being conditioned

Much of what I talk about does sound down right crazy, but I am not the crazy one.

However, it’s never too late to turn things around

http://www.realitynext.ca/new-renaissance/

It’s definitely time we all paid a little closer attention to what is really going on

#88 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.01.16 at 9:19 pm

liberal supports have been saying that it’s too early to judge JT’s Impact so I guess the solid 2015 Q4 results are from Harper’s group

http://globalnews.ca/news/2549575/canadian-economy-exceeds-expectations-in-q4/

lets see how JT does in 2016 and beyond

#89 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.01.16 at 9:20 pm

Actually I dislike her because I know her. Do you? — Garth

rekt

#90 Network Admin on 03.01.16 at 9:25 pm

#82 “proof-reading issue”
Yes, we had a “turkey solution” (instead of “turNkey solution”) in our web site for a couple of weeks :)

#91 Francesca on 03.01.16 at 9:26 pm

Is this a good time to buy Canadian bank shares?

#92 common sense on 03.01.16 at 9:31 pm

#87 SWL1976

Shhhhhh…You don’t want to break the illusion and spoil the party….

#93 Smoking Man on 03.01.16 at 9:35 pm

Rubio giving a rock star victory speach.

Ah….. hasn’t any one told him yet.

#94 Vicpaul on 03.01.16 at 9:38 pm

#5 Gladiator
A friend of mine built and sold 3 mansions in Toronto in the last 4 years. He sold them all to wealthy Chinese represented here by, well, locals. He says that out of all buyers in the 2+ million segment, a minority are local highly-paid professionals, and the vast majority it is the Chinese, Iranians and Russians.
————-
I see it every year and teach their children everyday. This year, I have three Chinese nationals in my class – sweet kids ( almost all sweet when they’re seven) varying levels of English proficiency. Dad lives and works in China, swings over for a few weeks, plays golf at the most exclusive private club here in Victoria and then heads back over.
I guess I’m surprised at the wonder of some people about this. If you were a multimillionaire who lived in an oppressive state like Russia, a smoke-show desert town in Iran or the cease pool of pollution that is China, wouldn’t YOU relocate your loving family to the safest, English-speaking country whose education system is perennially in the top ten (six last year, I think)? I know I would.

#95 max on 03.01.16 at 9:42 pm

A few years ago everyone and their dog believed in oil and gas. It will always stay up. Now everyone and their dog are saying the same about real estate. Most are betting big on foreign money, that may or may not be there. Even if there was foreign money, most don’t have ties to Canada. First sign of a crack and they’ll be rushing for the door.

#96 common sense on 03.01.16 at 9:44 pm

Pot calling the kettle black award for March 1, 2016 goes to Alan Greenspan

“We’re in trouble (USA) because productivity is dead in the water.”

Hmmm…Had nothing to do with pumping money into the system willy nilly , creating bubbles and false price discovery which haven’t ended since you started the ball rolling way back when?

Nah…

#97 common sense on 03.01.16 at 9:55 pm

#93 Smoking Man

Still don’t think Trump stands a chance in the end but it will be a fun ride to watch.

Isn’t there something about Rubio that just makes you want to give a slap just because?

#98 Smoking Man on 03.01.16 at 10:04 pm

Garth your pall Goldstein from the sun cracks me up.

He’s a lush for sure.
Does a few twitter posts during the day.

Then he goes wild after 9pm takes one to know one.
I’m thinking he’s a good shit.

#99 Mark on 03.01.16 at 10:09 pm

“Nice theory if it really worked that way. My suggestion is to speak to people in the industry and allow them to inform you on what is actually occurring.”

Everyone I talk to in the industry informs me that house prices on the stuff they’re actually transacting (or attempting to transact in) hasn’t been moving higher in anywhere near the fashion claimed. But all the elements of a classic “pump and dump” scam on an otherwise declining asset class are in place. Including a small group of very vocal (and arguably scared, see the quote of a Realtor I posted earlier) people looking to generate hype to unload their properties before the door is permanently shut.

The statistical data shows that Canada is suffering capital outflows, not inflows. Anecdotal evidence indicates that the concern of the border guards is primarily clandestine export of currency, not importation. Certain Vancouver-based RE sell side marketing organizations have been caught red-handed attempting to fabricate/exxagerate the “HAM theory”. In Toronto, the vendors are so desperate to unload inventory and avoid downwards price discovery that there’s lots of “freebies” being thrown into transactions which otherwise would properly be deducted from the reported transactional price (I wonder if the banks know about the implicit appraisal fraud involved!).

I could go on and on (and no, I don’t sound like Steve Urkel, and who even said I was white!??). But anyone who looks at the whole situation and can’t smell the stench really needs their nose (and brain) checked.

#100 Randy Randerson on 03.01.16 at 10:09 pm

So ON is going to give out free tuition and eliminate tuition tax credit?

http://www.torontosun.com/2016/03/01/kathleen-wynne-at-jarvis-collegiate-to-tuition-grants

Looks like Toronto Sun doesn’t like its premier much. Check out the photo of her with the pink phallus looking science experiment.

#101 wallflower on 03.01.16 at 10:11 pm

#13 VanMan on 03.01.16 at 6:31 pm

This is the new underground economy and it is YUGE (taking a word from the Drumf). I have travelled all over USA and Europe using airbnb. The hosts are not registering their income with the authorities. Here, where I live over the winter, my host takes in about $2500 US per month on his home. NONE of it is registered with the authorities. Not the rooms nor the income. Same experience in Vancouver. (Repeated in many places in Europe.) And I am a long-term resident so I get to know my hosts. There are many people living very nice lives in this alternate economy.

#102 wallflower on 03.01.16 at 10:14 pm

Oh and about DEL Property Management. What a bunch of moronic employees. Spell much? I have lived in buildings being managed by these people… Unbelievable bunch of morons. But that is not really the moronic bit. A company THIS size is using cheques? Seriously? (I can see using cheques as a benefit for the elderly… who pretty much don’t bounce cheques… but the rest of their base?????)

#103 prairiegopher on 03.01.16 at 10:14 pm

All this mess and Pretty Boy is taking selfies of himself at a national conference. We are being led by one of the Stooges.

#104 Mark on 03.01.16 at 10:20 pm

“Is this a good time to buy Canadian bank shares?”

Do you think Justin Trudeau’s government is going to bend over and cut cheque after cheque to the CMHC to pay CMHC claims once the ~45X leveraged CMHC runs out of capital? Or will they eventually push back?

The answer to the question determines whether Canadian banks are a good buy.

Since the banks have been the outperformers of the past few decades, if you take a longer view, it seems to me that they almost can’t be the outperformers of the next few decades.

Best to stick with the “balanced portfolio” in lieu of trying to make sector bets. Banks certainly can be a limited part of that, but they’re already heavily represented in most broad-based index funds.

#105 Mike in Edm on 03.01.16 at 10:30 pm

What ever happened to banks applying TDS and GDS ratios and handing out mortgages based on that??? Did that just go out the window?

A couple of the Edmonton radio station ads that you hear regularly nowadays are for a couple of morgage lending companies that will happily finance your 4% downpayment b/c “a $300k mortgage is only $1450 a month… That’s cheaper than rent!”, and the one I’ve been hearing today is for Beaverbrooke community where they are offering buyers up to $18k in incentives ON TOP of whatever the individual home builders are offering home buyers. Never heard of this new sub-estate but it must be empty lol

#106 HeartSutra on 03.01.16 at 10:42 pm

The Toronto house that sold $421,800 over asking to a young Chinese international student in 2012 now is torn down by another new Chinese buyer and will be selling in 4 millions http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/toronto-house-that-sold-400000-over-asking-in-2012-torn-down/article28959660/

#107 Smoking Man on 03.01.16 at 10:57 pm

I walked one block to tims today. Was out of coffee. Thought I was going to have a heart atack . Aspen chewables in every pocket just in case.

Crunched on two of them to be on the safe side.

Looked around. Not one for sale sign.

Sorry, Longbranch real estate still got a long way to go.

#108 Smoking Man on 03.01.16 at 11:03 pm

DELETED

#109 Mark on 03.01.16 at 11:09 pm

“What ever happened to banks applying TDS and GDS ratios and handing out mortgages based on that??? Did that just go out the window?”

GDS and TDS aren’t all that meaningful when lending against highly cyclical income. After all, people will typically present their circumstances in the best possible light, not the worst or ‘average’ cases. And as the oilpatch has taught us recently, oil and gas income is very cyclical.

One “feature” of this real estate bubble that wasn’t present in the past, and is largely facilitated by the CMHC, is that banks haven’t been discriminating against credit risks based on things other than simply the raw credit metrics (ie: score, GDS/TDS, LTV). Thus, a lot of people have likely obtained credit against the long-term peak of their income (particularly if they’re Realtors or O&G employees) that they otherwise wouldn’t have qualified for if the banks did a full sit-down face-to-face, dressed-up-in-Sunday-Church clothes underwriting as they did in the past.

Likewise, professionals with highly stable income and even inversely correlated income have likely paid way more than they should have for their mortgages. With the one-size-fits-all, non-discrimination approach of the CMHC as an ‘insurer’.

If I were in government, one of the reforms I would make to CMHC subprime mortgage insurance, at the very least, if I couldn’t cancel it outright, would be to actually turn it into an actuarially based risk assessed product. When prices go bonkers in Vancouver, for example, “insurance” costs should escalate to reflect the risk. One-industry towns would have higher insurance costs to reflect the likely severity of future loss. Likewise, “insurance” in places with diversified economies and/or against very low risk properties should be much cheaper. Occupational and income stability, as well as borrower health should be assessable. We allow insurers to use the best available information to discriminate against insurance risks in other aspects of society (such as auto, life, fire, flood insurance), yet the CMHC throws the basic principles of “insurance” out the window and uses a standardized chart for the entire country.

#110 West Coast on 03.01.16 at 11:20 pm

Sure looks like ‘pump and dump’ in YVR to me. [“the fraudulent practice of encouraging investors to buy shares in a company in order to inflate the price artificially, and then selling one’s own shares while the price is high”]
We see this in the art world, the stock market and in real estate etc……….nothing new, but amazing to watch! Front row seats from where I’m sitting!!

#111 For those about to flop... on 03.01.16 at 11:21 pm

Mark@ 99

I could go on and on (and no, I don’t sound like Steve Urkel, and who even said I was white!??). But anyone who looks at the whole situation and can’t smell the stench really needs their nose (and brain) checked.

/////////////////////////////////

You once told me that you don’t read my posts.
So it’s funny that you should talk about Urkel,quite the coincidence don’t you think…

#gotcha

M41BC

#112 Bob on 03.01.16 at 11:45 pm

Garth,

Maybe if you start an online mukbang show and talk about finances while eating, people may listen to you…

#113 Smoking Man on 03.01.16 at 11:49 pm

Some one loves you , you love em back.
The ones that hate you. Love them more.

That’s how shit happens on nectointe.

I’m no fking libral. Just an observer. From an outer planet.

#114 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.01.16 at 11:55 pm

usa economy keeps powering through doomsayers boys and girls

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/02/29/the-u-s-economy-keeps-beating-expectations/

http://time.com/money/4241341/warren-buffett-2016-berkshire-letter/

If I were in government, one of the reforms I would make…

how about we start with, ‘if I were able to get company hr to give me an interview…’

that would probably be a good first step lol

#115 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.02.16 at 12:00 am

Nice theory if it really worked that way. My suggestion is to speak to people in the industry and allow them to inform you on what is actually occurring.

walmark of sadkatoon has a reputation of making up stories as he goes along. it’s what got him banned on rfd. i wouldn’t take his ideas too seriously. he’s mostly trying to convince himself. how much credibility does a person who said 1) gold, barrick stock, and the cad were going to rise 2 yrs ago, 2) deflation is ravaging the usa and 3) he can’t get a job or even a callback from hr, have? lol

#116 nonplused on 03.02.16 at 12:05 am

Well, I just got my appraisal here in Calgary, and it’s gone down enough that I would have broken even renting for 4 years. It’s an above average house, but it used to be worth (so the county thought) near a million, and now they think it’s under 9 hundred. Rent on a similar property is $2500 – $3000 per month, plus you don’t have to pay taxes or maintenance. Something about the CREB published numbers isn’t lining up with what the appraisers are seeing. Oh well when the price drops they just raise the mill rate so I won’t be saving anything on taxes.

#117 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.02.16 at 12:11 am

if you guys aren’t happy with canada and have a tech background, go to the usa baby!

“Software developers right out of college can command starting salaries of up to $90,000. Once in their jobs, they can get as many as 20 recruiting calls a day trying to convince them to leave for another company. And when they do, a 20 percent to 25 percent bump in salary is not unusual.”
https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2016/02/19/the-war-for-tech-talent-escalates/ejUSbuPCjPLCMRYlRZIKoJ/story.html

if you can’t get a gig in this environment, well, feels bad for u cuz u prolly need to improve your life skills

just a tip for those who have sucky resumes (and ive seen a ton of sucky resumes), be achievement oriented in your job descriptions. for example, too many people say, ‘i developed this’ or ‘i built that’. everybody has that on their resume and nobody cares. ‘i spoke with 1000 customers’. boooring. ‘i participated’ really? ‘participated’? are we back in high school?

‘ranked top 3 of 24 in total revenue generation with market share growth of 50%, achieving 110% sales to target’

‘improved operational efficiency by 25% thereby saving the company $1m over the course of the fiscal 2015 year’

give those basics a try. throw your participation awards and volunteer badges in the toilet. nobody cares about your low bar elementary school life skills that resulted in no stated operational benefits to your employer. nobody.

#118 DON on 03.02.16 at 12:12 am

#38 Retired Boomer WI on 03.01.16 at 7:23 pm

…Idiots we have in excess here. If you need any, we can ship them north cheap!!!
*****************************

No Vacancy!

We’ve got our own problems up here.

Some Canadians, after watching the US and European housing downturns actually believe we are different here cause…(queue the valley girl mentality). Yikes!

I apologize to all the Valley Girls out there – just making a point.

#119 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.02.16 at 12:18 am

#112

all i need is 5 seconds to tell if a candidate sucks. the rule of thumb is, if the resume sucks, the candidate sucks. and a resume that sucks is filled with stuff a high school kid would put on it. simple fact.

if a candidate can’t sell me the idea of meeting with them on paper, there will be absolutely no way they can sell me the idea of hiring them in person. absolutely no way.

separates the employed from the unemployed. separates the highly paid and the go-nowheres. fact of life boys and girls. you’re welcome

#120 45north on 03.02.16 at 12:20 am

It’s impossible the average house in Canada – which requires 71% of average gross income to carry (with 25% down) – will retain its value in the current economy,

Canada is headed for a real estate collapse. Not a sure steady decline but a collapse. Vancouver price increase is now 50% year over year. It has achieved escape velocity. From the planet Earth.

#121 Babbler on 03.02.16 at 12:38 am

Are banks a good buy. Yes! Always. Verily! Yes, yes and yes! Hasn’t that been obvious the last 50 years? The banks are part of the FIRE economy. The game is rigged for banks to do well in the long term. The economy depends on it. Any issues and the government will step in. Where do you think politicians go after their term in office? They serve as directors at banks of course. Politicians know how to feather their nests.

#122 Frank on 03.02.16 at 12:39 am

Everyone I talk to in the industry informs me that house prices on the stuff they’re actually transacting (or attempting to transact in) hasn’t been moving higher in anywhere near the fashion claimed. But all the elements of a classic “pump and dump” scam on an otherwise declining asset class are in place. Including a small group of very vocal (and arguably scared, see the quote of a Realtor I posted earlier) people looking to generate hype to unload their properties before the door is permanently shut.

Bullshit. I won’t wait around while you don’t prove any of this.

#123 ken on 03.02.16 at 2:08 am

I think there are two types of real estate speculation occurring. The one that gets much attention is the high end sales in Vancouver and Toronto. Although based on limited data (and living in the westside of Vancouver) it seems sales are driven with money that did not originate from the local/national economy and investors that do not have the majority of their businesses in Canada. Garth, whenever anyone brings this up, they are called racist. I don’t think is fair. I think its relevant because calculations using the local median income and housing prices is a pointless exercise because these are not the people buying the multimillion dollar homes. Locals are definitely buying homes in nearby areas that are outside of sound financial practice with speculation of big returns.

#124 Tamsen on 03.02.16 at 2:20 am

“#81 Westsider on 03.01.16 at 8:58 pm

Of course there is no data, so we live by anecdotes, but the house on my left was sold to offshore owners and the house on my right was sold to offshore investors last week and today the house across the street is up for sale. It is such a coincidence that the 5% of houses sold to offshore investors are all on my street or on west 3rd.”

Everybody we know who lives in West end YVR and West Vancouver are experiencing this, too! We have eyes, we can see!! Yet, to be told (by people who don’t live here) that it’s perhaps only 5 percent is insane. Seriously, add another zero to that number. If all the sales data for these prime areas were forensically examined, we wouldn’t be surprised that offshore buying is closer to 50 percent than 5 …

#125 jane 24 on 03.02.16 at 2:39 am

I am very surprised that an upmarket condo board still takes cheques!! I have not seen a chequebook for a long time. Someone needs to tell them about the concept of variable direct debit.That way the board gets the money first from the bank and for a failed DD the bank also gets to sting the customer for extra cash in admin fees. Wins all round.

#126 Slippery Slide Into Bananna Land on 03.02.16 at 2:46 am

Third world corruption thy name is Trudeau

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/justin-trudeaus-brother-lobbies-liberals-to-not-deport-terror-suspect-mohamed-harkat

#127 NoName on 03.02.16 at 3:17 am

not good, very not good!

“For the previous eight quarters to this one, we have had global implied stock-builds, so we have accumulated a lot of oil,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London. “It’s going to take a lot of time to work out that excess oil from the system.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-02/saudi-arabia-faces-a-new-oil-titan-once-battle-with-shale-is-won-ila2vccq

I’m gonna by me a truck!

#128 Freeman on 03.02.16 at 4:25 am

CITIES WITH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS is where prices will stay high, as international businessmen drag their ‘STOLEN’ money from their countries and need a safe place to ‘HIDE’ it in here in Canada. Meanwhile, cities that are 200 kms or more away from those major ‘international airport cities’ will feel some of those house pricing pressures, but significantly less.

I would say that in 10 years time house prices in Vancouver will be 3 times what they are today, and in Toronto house prices will be 2 times what they are today, and it has mostly to do with MONEY LAUNDERING, and a bit less to do with the locals being brainwashed by our mass media shows on TV, like ‘Love it or List it’, or other similar Real Estate TV shows like that.

#129 Freeman on 03.02.16 at 4:44 am

The the current odds for the US Fed to increase again in a couple weeks can be found here, at this site:

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

current probability of a rate hike is said to be at 6% (that value is just above the actual chart itself).

#130 nubbers on 03.02.16 at 6:25 am

I guess I am in a small minority (but no longer of 1) when I think that the more foreign money that buys up overpriced high end Canadian housing at the top of the market, the better.

There must be locals who have been able to retire by selling off their house at record prices. These are definite winners.

When house prices crash, that foreign money will forever be nationalised to the tune of the amount of the drop in price of foreign purchased property. Win for Canada.

Even the foreign buyers, via proxy or otherwise, might be winners. It could be that they know they are going to take a hit, but that it will be a less severe hit than if they keep their money at home.

The only losers will be local fools who bought in at the top, but who would have only found some other way to bankrupt themselves anyway. Even this group could console themselves later in life with the thought that their role as a sort of ‘judas goat’ attracted a huge amount of money into Canada, just when it was needed.

#131 Retired Boomer WI on 03.02.16 at 6:51 am

Being away obviously helps my investment choices.

As of today we have reached and exceeded year end totals. MY recession has ended, we are now back in a “growth mode.”

for how long, who knows? At least we are “UP” from where the year 2015 ended.

Hope this is true for all.

#132 David McDonald on 03.02.16 at 7:52 am

The housing market in Toronto and Vancouver is just too crazy to believe. Garth is probably correct that locals are responsible for the insatiable demand but maybe some of these locals are financed by HAM. According to Deutsche Bank analysts led by Zhiwei Zhang, about $328 billion left China in secret between August 2015 and January this year:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-328-billion-has-been-moved-out-of-china-in-secret-2016-2?r=US&IR=T

#133 Herb on 03.02.16 at 8:22 am

#126 Slippery Slide,

bit of a stretch, my CPC friend, but keep on exaggerating to keep up the slide in Conservative support.

#134 Herb on 03.02.16 at 8:46 am

#100 Randy Randerson,

now why would a right-leaning paper not like a left-leaning premier?

#135 Q2 Class 2-B-C-2 Duplex Drive on 03.02.16 at 9:01 am

Garth –

I live right across the street from the Republic condo complex. In a rental (of course). Lotsa moister couples in the building (DAMs I call ’em) average age around 25, so in love blah blah blah. Now they can’t make their condo fees! Nothing like some non-digital reality intruding on their carefully-constructed, oh so trendy lives. Lotsa other condos going up around here – it’s like a war zone. 50/50 it blows up big time – still plenty of momentum in this condo market.

P.S. s/b returned. I know, proofing is so LAME, man

#136 Julia on 03.02.16 at 9:05 am

Ritchie Bros. Auction

What I hear is that contrary to previous years there is a lot of new or near new equipment for sale which go for good prices. That negatively affects the older equipment which doesn’t sell much or at a greater discount because of the availability of newer stuff.

#137 Julia on 03.02.16 at 9:19 am

#83 IM in C
“When is a lending institution legally obliged to start foreclosure on a mortgage that is in arrears ?”

They don’t have a legal obligation but their intervention may vary depending is the loan is insured or not. If insured, institutions will need to work within the insurer’s guidelines in order to avoid compromising the insurance. I understand that CMHC is pretty flexible working with banks on an appropriate strategy when there are defaults.

If a loan is not insured, the banks start incurring higher costs of capital for loans in default and will make decisions taking that into consideration.

#138 Julia on 03.02.16 at 9:24 am

#105 Mike in Edm
“What ever happened to banks applying TDS and GDS ratios and handing out mortgages based on that??? Did that just go out the window?”

The higher the downpayment the looser the TDS and GDS criterias. Over 50% downpayment some don’t even look at TDS (equity loans) and 50% is not unusual when people are using equity from a sale to upsize. I think some even do equity loans starting at 35% down.

#139 IHCTD9 on 03.02.16 at 9:25 am

#65 Greg on 03.01.16 at 8:22 pm
You could buy a 100 year old house in Vancouver or this:

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/blog/business/2016/02/grammy-winner-alicia-keys-selling-her-phoenix-home.html
___________________________________________

Now if that does not bring some perspective, nothing will.

Buyers in Van right now must be utterly convinced RE can only go up – there is just no other reason to spend millions on those dumpsters.

Not when Arizona is waiting…

#140 The American on 03.02.16 at 9:28 am

Smoking Man, good morning, sir! Did you happen to catch the results Super Tuesday? :-) It’s exciting to see surge so far ahead as the Republican frontrunner, no doubt making him the Republican nomination. With this in mind, I think it is time everyone start practicing up saying, “Madam President.” Hillary will absolutely slaughter Trump on every level. Sanders would too. Like I said, it’s DEFINITELY a Democrat sitting in the helm of the Oval Office come January of next year.

#141 IHCTD9 on 03.02.16 at 9:31 am

#72 Jackie Bling on 03.01.16 at 8:36 pm

And is the dentists paying 3 million for a lot the reason I’m paying 1400 dollars for a simple filling these days?
___________________________________

That doesn’t sound too bad – had a tooth pulled, no prep, no nothing.

Just had it yanked out, less than 5 minutes.

$700.00

For our cat.

#142 The American on 03.02.16 at 9:31 am

Also, it’s important to note Last Week Tonight devoted 22 minutes of the show sole to Drumph. For those who believe Drumph is such savior, it is critical you watch this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnpO_RTSNmQ

#143 A Canadian Abroad on 03.02.16 at 9:31 am

The SOLUTION to the Canadian Housing Bubble:

Why didn’t the CAD Gov’t think of this sooner?

Close the “primary residence tax free loophole”

CHARGE CAPITAL GAINS ON HOUSE SALES or Do what they do in the USA and charge income tax on all gains over $300k.

That would fix it.

#144 The Other Chris on 03.02.16 at 9:41 am

I agree 100% with your comment about there being two Canadas, Garth. I think that’s increasingly true among more than one axis, too, not just in real estate. We’re becoming a divided country in so many ways. Alberta and Sask vs. the rest, public sector vs. private sector, etc.

That being said, I agree with the dentist’s comment that it’s going to be hard to find a house in Vancouver under $4 million pretty soon. I don’t see how that’s avoidable now.

#145 IHCTD9 on 03.02.16 at 9:43 am

#77 doomsday preppar on 03.01.16 at 8:49 pm
I own a semi detached in an Ottawa ‘burb…about a year ago I came home to a sign in my neighbor’s window stating that the bank now owned the property. Was really sad to see my neighbors of 8 or so years have to pack all their crap and move in the dead of winter, Shortly after the power of sale sign went up. After a month or so the house was purchased by an Iranian family who completely gutted it, and replaced everything with new…roof, furnace windows, baths etcetc…took all summer and fall fixing it up
The house has been for sale now for about 5 months, with no action. They had an “open house” last weekend, and they didn’t even shovel the walk to get people in!
Seems to me that this was a good way to park a whack of cash…they will never be able to sell for what they have in it…I did the math…it just sits there vacant…
So why?
____________________________________

Sounds like a failed attempt to make money no? I see it out my way too. Couple divorces, their un-prepped empty house goes on the market and sells cheap. Flippers move in and do renos, spend too much, and then can’t sell at a profit. The property sinks further in the red every month it sits as mortgage payments, utilities, taxes, and maintenance costs pile up.

I’d say the house flipping industry in Canada is dead as a doornail in all areas except the GTA/VAN at this point. In my area, it’s hard to get what all metrics and observation say the house is actually worth, forget about any premium over that number.

#146 Mark on 03.02.16 at 10:27 am

“When is a lending institution legally obliged to start foreclosure on a mortgage that is in arrears ?”

Don’t know the ‘legal’ aspect of it, but I can tell you that a now-in-the-process-of-divorcing friend of mine in Calgary hasn’t made a payment in nearly 8 months, and not much more than “payment reminders” have arrived in the mailbox from the bank, BMO. CMHC-insured mortgage, 5% down on a new construction house pretty much at the 2013 price peak.

At this point, on account of the crash in Calgary RE prices, they’re looking at a deficiency of well over $100k. The “good” Calgary Realtors won’t even bother taking a listing unless people start at 20-25% off of 2013 peak pricing.

#147 Bored on 03.02.16 at 10:34 am

You know that things are totally out of control when a Stouffville semi sells for 72K over listing leading to an endless stream of giddy agents spouting the news and trying to get you to list with them. The fact that the property was listed more than 30K lower than equivalent properties have sold for, which led to a feeding frenzy of potential buyers viewing the place all weekend had nothing to do with it, of course. The close for offers was supposed to be next Monday, but the fool’s offer was too good to let slip obviously.

#148 pbrasseur on 03.02.16 at 10:59 am

It’s impossible the average house in Canada – which requires 71% of average gross income to carry (with 25% down) – will retain its value in the current economy, unless families have an infinite capacity for debt. – Garth

Nicely said, nice to see we are not running out of formulations to express clearly how insane and unsustainable this situation is.

Half the market is already heading to a correction, the other is plagued by speculation.

If you want to see how speculation ends just look at oil.

#149 AfterTheHouseSold on 03.02.16 at 11:00 am

Thorium. Is this the next great energy paradigm shift?

http://www.ted.com/talks/kirk_sorensen_thorium_an_alternative_nuclear_fuel

#150 Alberta Ed on 03.02.16 at 11:05 am

Mess, indeed. Meanwhile, Mr. Selfie just wafted into Vancouver on his solar-powered bamboo airplane to promote “green technology.”

#151 sockeye sam on 03.02.16 at 11:18 am

#128 freeman

You are absolutely right my friend! Asia’s rich factory owners parking money in Vancouver. We should be calling it . THE GREAT MONEY PARKADE, BUY & FLY. Fly into Vancouver meet the agent scoop and fly out. Or better yet fly in scoop a house buy a Bentley park it in the garage and send Junior over with paid tuition to high school and the keys to the Bentley.

#152 Bat Flipper on 03.02.16 at 11:37 am

Economies do well when citizens have money to spend. When citizens are pickled in debt, they have no money to spend and businesses go south. think sears, target, mexx, guess, parasuco, smart set, chapters, jacob, grand & toy, staples, sony, costa blanca, holt renfrew, future shop, bootlegger, blacks, gap, zellers, etc. Even Wal-Mart is starting to close stores around the world, will they start closing stores in Canada soon?

As debt continues to swell; how long until mortgage insurance decides not to take on any more risk?

#153 Bram on 03.02.16 at 11:49 am

#139 IHCTD9 on 03.02.16 at 9:25 am
there is just no other reason to spend millions on those dumpsters.

The reason is not the dumpster house.
The reason is the land that it sits on.

You can buy a house for dirt cheap in Vancouver if it doesn’t come with land. E.g. this one, with a land lease on native lands:
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16565711/5-TAMATH-CRESCENT-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V6N2C8

Bram

#154 max on 03.02.16 at 11:58 am

There is an interesting thing in banking called a wire transfer. In the electronic age, with the push of the enter button, many can transfer their fortunes to another bank in another country in seconds. Back before Canadian banks offered U.S. mortgages, my Dad bought a house in the states. To get a mortgage from a U.S. he paid higher interest and had to keep a certain amount on deposit at the U.S. bank. Canadian banks will do the same, for foreigners. Just like it would be impossible to ban Muslims from entering the U.S., you can’t tell a Muslim from a Christian, etc. You can’t tell a foreign buyer from a local with todays banking. See to the American sellers, my Dads house purchase would seem it was an American purchase.

We don’t have accurate data on foreign or local buyers. In fact the foreigners could be selling more then buying.

#155 HellandBack on 03.02.16 at 12:05 pm

Victoria has gone loony tunes too. This will be a very sad ending.

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/buying-wave-sparks-bidding-battles-for-victoria-real-estate-1.2188107

#156 Chris on 03.02.16 at 12:22 pm

You cannot extrapolate average sales from one $4 million transaction. Use your noodle. — Garth

Just like you cannot extrapolate what is happening based on Brad or a dentist friend. “Standing at the Ritchie’s Auction in northern Alberta, Brad sees dreams being sold for pennies on the dollar. On the Westside of Vancouver a dentist friend is paying $3 million for a forty-foot lot.” Some businesses thrive, others fail, some people lose jobs, others get hired. Relax, buy what you need and can afford, invest for long term growth, quit looking for pieces of falling sky…

#157 45north on 03.02.16 at 12:26 pm

The American: Hillary will absolutely slaughter Trump on every level.

yes she will. You know, I think Republicans have given up. There are Senate and House seats that can be won. It’s all too complicated for their simple minds. They just can’t be bothered.

#158 Bonhomme Carnaval on 03.02.16 at 12:29 pm

@#109 Mark on 03.01.16 at 11:09 pm

Well said! Best comment of the day.

Cheers

#159 Bonhomme Carnaval on 03.02.16 at 12:32 pm

@ #130 nubbers on 03.02.16 at 6:25 am

I like! Thumb up.

Best

#160 pbrasseur on 03.02.16 at 12:37 pm

@A Canadian Abroad # 143

« Close the “primary residence tax free loophole»

The rationale behind capital gains tax exemption on primary residence is the burden it would put on mobility.

It makes sense, in a normal market houses sell close to their intrinsic values which do not grow much faster than inflation, so collecting taxes would be unfair anyway, it would be like collecting taxes on inflation and people would lose money in real $$$.

The solution to the bubble is indeed simple, it is for government to get the hell out of the credit market!!! Unfortunately much of the damage has already been done.

#161 pbrasseur on 03.02.16 at 12:41 pm

The American #140

«Like I said, it’s DEFINITELY a Democrat sitting in the helm of the Oval Office come January of next year.»

That’s an easy call since the real Donald Trump is actually also a Democrat! ;-)

#162 Stanley Bridge on 03.02.16 at 12:42 pm

Due to total over-indebtedness and the potential catastrophic outcome from the inevitable housing meltdown to whatever remains from our economy, due mostly to the government exposure to risky ultra sub-prime mortgages (with severely underpriced risk) that no private insurer in their right mind would even touch or consider, we are facing the following predicaments:
– No CAD interest rates increases ever are possible or even thinkable of, even in mid to long term perspective
– Inflation already runs rampant – look at food prices, I had a friend from US (making 6 digits in USD there) visiting 2 months ago who literally refused to eat while in Toronto when he saw the food prices at the grocery stores.
– Absolute destruction of the savers and people on fixed income. Majority of Canadians will face the inescapable ‘inability to retire, ever’ paradigm.
– As everything goes to housing these is absolutely no way for our stock market not to tank as no one around has any money at all, everyone I know has huge debts and ‘virtual’ net worth with almost zero in savings in the bank and absolutely no exposure to anything else besides the real estate.

I cannot stress strongly enough on the high and ever increasing likelihood of total meltdown of the economy accompanied with absolutely horrific inflation which in absence of any recovery in commodities is becoming more and more of an absolute certainty by the day.

Knowing Daryl Katz: Selling Rexall, in terms of timing, is an absolute home run.

#163 bdy sktrn on 03.02.16 at 12:42 pm

house next door just sold for double what it did 4 years ago.

same house. no upgrades. same lot.

sales mix fools are desperately projecting their bitterness and envy.

why?….
“January, the sales-to-active- listings rate in Metro Vancouver reached 38 per cent — its highest point in a decade.

And the fact that new listings do not stay on the market very long contributes to the low-inventory problem, explains Craig Munn, the real estate board’s communications manager.

The rate in January of last year was just ***17.7 per cent. In January 2014, it was ***14 per cent.

A balanced market has a rate between 14 and 20 per cent, which ensures price stability.

Upward pressure on prices starts to occur when the rate hits 20 to 22 per cent for a sustained period. ” – van sun

AND

airbnb is hoovering up rental spaces at a blistering pace – leaving squat for renters.

rents are finally following selling prices as supply evaporates.

a decent, yet slanty oldtimer eastside teardown can now command 3000-3500 for the up and 1200-1600 for the down.

near 5K/mo (sometimes cash) not a bad return on a 1.2M shack.

#164 Sylvain on 03.02.16 at 12:51 pm

Looks like the Vancouver R/E craziness is migrating to Victoria.

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/buying-wave-sparks-bidding-battles-for-victoria-real-estate-1.2188107

#165 James on 03.02.16 at 12:52 pm

#140 The American on 03.02.16 at 9:28 am

Smoking Man, good morning, sir! Did you happen to catch the results Super Tuesday? :-) It’s exciting to see surge so far ahead as the Republican front-runner, no doubt making him the Republican nomination. With this in mind, I think it is time everyone start practicing up saying, “Madam President.” Hillary will absolutely slaughter Trump on every level. Sanders would too. Like I said, it’s DEFINITELY a Democrat sitting in the helm of the Oval Office come January of next year.
…………………………………………………………………
Too bad for America, that means you also get to keep Smoking Man and his TN visa, I still have not figured out how he qualifies as a professional? America must have very low standards. Perhaps its a trade-off, Trump goes Smoky stays.

#166 Stanley Bridge on 03.02.16 at 12:58 pm

#109 Mark

Absolutely,

Reassess the risk and ask the banks and home owners jointly to pay the correct mortgage insurance premium.

Then jack up the rates to their market values of 5-6 %.

#167 Bonhomme Carnaval on 03.02.16 at 1:07 pm

@ #162 Stanley Bridge on 03.02.16 at 12:42 pm

Brilliant commentary!

#168 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.02.16 at 1:10 pm

Me thinks that the Donald still has a Trump card up his sleeve.

#169 IHCTD9 on 03.02.16 at 1:10 pm

#106 HeartSutra on 03.01.16 at 10:42 pm
The Toronto house that sold $421,800 over asking to a young Chinese international student in 2012 now is torn down by another new Chinese buyer and will be selling in 4 millions http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/toronto-house-that-sold-400000-over-asking-in-2012-torn-down/article28959660/
__________________________________________

Probably to yet another Chinese buyer…

“Someone gonna geta hurt real bad”.

#170 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.02.16 at 1:14 pm

Mess is coming.
I hope he and Gretzy are stopping for autographs.

#171 Rebs on 03.02.16 at 1:26 pm

Just for fun, I punched in our numbers in one of these ‘affordability calculators’. It said we could get a mortgage for around $940K – on a $105K gross income! That works out to about 3K mortgage (at today’s rates!). In REAL LIFE, that would leave us about 1.5K “extra” each month – like we don’t need to eat, transport ourselves to jobs, pay insurance, heating, electricity, etc etc. Who are the people that make these calculators!?! I don’t see how anyone would actually take that advice for real, but still.

#172 Smoking Man on 03.02.16 at 1:33 pm

#165 James on 03.02.16 at 12:52 pm
#140 The American on 03.02.16 at 9:28 am

Smoking Man, good morning, sir! Did you happen to catch the results Super Tuesday? :-) It’s exciting to see surge so far ahead as the Republican front-runner, no doubt making him the Republican nomination. With this in mind, I think it is time everyone start practicing up saying, “Madam President.” Hillary will absolutely slaughter Trump on every level. Sanders would too. Like I said, it’s DEFINITELY a Democrat sitting in the helm of the Oval Office come January of next year.
…………………………………………………………………
Too bad for America, that means you also get to keep Smoking Man and his TN visa, I still have not figured out how he qualifies as a professional? America must have very low standards. Perhaps its a trade-off, Trump goes Smoky stays.
………………

I have a Phd in Herdonomics

Trump will win. He will tone down his rhetoric on immigration, he will run with Ben Carson getting good chunk of the black vote.

Not only that but you will see Yuug records broken on voter turn out.

What haven’t you figured out yet, the more he’s attacked, the more it becomes obvious to voters the machine owns the other guys and since Obumer most Americans are not better off.

No brainier.

#173 Retired Boomer WI on 03.02.16 at 1:34 pm

Trump, Trump, Trump…. Te media here can’t get enough of the guy.

Is he really a great businessman? Well, had he invested his not small inheritance in a broad based index fund, and left it alone he would have twice what he now owns.

‘Nuff said. In the meantime, he could have worked for a living like the rest of the 99%.

No delusional presidents this time around, but I likely will not get my wish…

#174 Walmark of Sadkatoon on 03.02.16 at 1:50 pm

#163 bdy sktrn on 03.02.16 at 12:42 pm

there’s definitely no loss of demand for houses in Vancouver (or Toronto). I’m staying out of that particular fire.

on other news. trump to take Carson as running mate? no way. Palin all the way baby! haha

#175 Walmark of Sadkatoon on 03.02.16 at 1:51 pm

Hillary will win. She has all the banks in her pocket.

#176 IHCTD9 on 03.02.16 at 2:29 pm

#130 nubbers on 03.02.16 at 6:25 am
I guess I am in a small minority (but no longer of 1) when I think that the more foreign money that buys up overpriced high end Canadian housing at the top of the market, the better.
_______________________

I’m there with ya. How could Millions (Billions ?) from outside Canada being dumped directly into Canadians’ hands be a bad thing? Sure prices spike, but no regular working Canadian is buying these dumps when looking for a place to settle down and grow roots, too expensive. They are being bought by rich Chinese, local move uppers, and specuvestors of all colours.

If the market blows, all those millions stay in those same lucky Canadian sellers’ bank accounts. Specuvestors lose big on their last flip, but not necessarily ending up broke. The minority of rich Chinese wealth parkers lose some paper wealth – probably not a big deal unless they had dumped everything they had into the Van RE market.

The only real losers IMHO will be those who lose it all through buying last, and those who bought well beyond their means. Anyone finding themselves looking at negative equity for decades, higher interest rates, and have to dump and subsequently carry 100’s of thousands in debt for a house they don’t own anymore…

#177 Bobby13 on 03.02.16 at 2:33 pm

You tied this piece together nicely. which will fail first confidence, you’re wallet or credit expansion. This market is defying gravity it’s gotten into unbelievable territory for me anyhow. I can’t twist these prices into making sense. Looks like the last leg on the chair in this economy.

#178 salonist on 03.02.16 at 2:45 pm

to get a tn visa it’s who you know, not what you know

#179 Doug t on 03.02.16 at 2:57 pm

Woo hoo just sold my house in victoria for 8 times the asking price – I’m rich lol

#180 Mark on 03.02.16 at 3:03 pm

“to get a tn visa it’s who you know, not what you know”

Not at all. For most categories of the TN visa, there is very little discretion on the part of the border guard in approving (or denying) the visa. So long as one’s offer letter from an employer is in a suitable and legitimate form, and one has an eligible educational or professional qualification and evidence of such, issuance of the TN is practically guaranteed.

With the poor US labour market, the bigger issue is actually finding a job in the US. But the visa is the least of the problems for the professionals actually eligible for it. There’s no “who you know” involved in the visa process at all.

“If the market blows, all those millions stay in those same lucky Canadian sellers’ bank accounts.”

Its the Canadian sellers, through the banks, who are lending the alleged “foreigners” the money to buy. So if there is a collapse, the sellers, if they put their money in a bank that, in turn, lent into the bubble, may very well suffer losses on such activity. One particularly reckless credit union in the Vancouver area that is particularly boosterish of subprime RE borrowing comes to mind as a good candidate for a bail-in or insolvency.

#181 Penny Henny on 03.02.16 at 3:09 pm

#141 IHCTD9 on 03.02.16 at 9:31 am
#72 Jackie Bling on 03.01.16 at 8:36 pm

And is the dentists paying 3 million for a lot the reason I’m paying 1400 dollars for a simple filling these days?
___________________________________

That doesn’t sound too bad – had a tooth pulled, no prep, no nothing.

Just had it yanked out, less than 5 minutes.

$700.00

For our cat.

///////////////////////////////////////

and you call yourself a handyman?

youtube could have showed you how

#182 Iconoclast on 03.02.16 at 3:21 pm

#175 Walmark of Sadkatoon

> Hillary will win. She has all the banks in her pocket.

Other way around, my friend. It’s the other way around.
And everybody, everybody knows it.

The Hillary fans are voting while holding their noses. (Except the female chauvinist pigs who will vote for her just because she’s a woman) The Trump fans are voting while punching the air and yelling “Take that, MotherF^*ers!”

Once he locks down the nomination, he’s going to start sounding a lot more reasonable and a lot more presidential. Watch for him to propose a single-payer health care system.

Trump has a real chance of taking it all.

#183 Yuug Records on 03.02.16 at 3:41 pm

#172 Smoking Man on 03.02.16 at 1:33 pm
#165 James on 03.02.16 at 12:52 pm
#140 The American on 03.02.16 at 9:28 am
Smoking Man, good morning, sir! Did you happen to catch the results Super Tuesday? :-) It’s exciting to see surge so far ahead as the Republican front-runner, no doubt making him the Republican nomination. With this in mind, I think it is time everyone start practicing up saying, “Madam President.” Hillary will absolutely slaughter Trump on every level. Sanders would too. Like I said, it’s DEFINITELY a Democrat sitting in the helm of the Oval Office come January of next year.
…………………………………………………………………
Too bad for America, that means you also get to keep Smoking Man and his TN visa, I still have not figured out how he qualifies as a professional? America must have very low standards. Perhaps its a trade-off, Trump goes Smoky stays.
……………………………………….…
I have a Phd in Herdonomics
Trump will win. He will tone down his rhetoric on immigration, he will run with Ben Carson getting good chunk of the black vote.
Not only that but you will see Yuug records broken on voter turn out.
What haven’t you figured out yet, the more he’s attacked, the more it becomes obvious to voters the machine owns the other guys and since Obumer most Americans are not better off.
No brainier.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Yes sir ee, I’m a pro-fesional, yeper, I got me them Yuug records and I’m Obumer fan too.
As a pro-fessional weeze learnt ho to spelt real goot an I got me a PHD in Herdonomics, by the way what is a PHD in Herdonomics?

Herdonomics – the branch of social science that deals with the production, distribution, and consumption of herds (or flocks) in particular, herds of social networkers.

#184 salonist on 03.02.16 at 3:41 pm

#180 Mark

idiot

#185 bdy sktrn on 03.02.16 at 3:45 pm

METRO VANCOUVER — Last month was the highest selling February on record for the Metro Vancouver housing market, according to the Real Estate Board of Vancouver.

Residential property sales in the region, which covers areas from Whistler to South Delta, totalled 4,172 in February 2016, up 36.3 per cent from a year ago.

The sales in February were 56.3 per cent above the 10-year sales average for the month and rank as the highest February sales total on record.

“We’re in a competitive, fast-moving market cycle that favours home sellers,” Darcy McLeod, REBGV president said. “Sustained home buyer competition is keeping upward pressure on home prices across the region.”

van sun

#186 Smartalox on 03.02.16 at 3:48 pm

@ Smoking Man,

A friend and I were wondering what Hunter S. Thompson would have made of Donald Trump’s ascendance, were he alive today.

It turns out, Thompson already had it nailed:

“The main problem in any democracy is that crowd-pleasers are generally brainless swine who can go out on a stage and whup their supporters into an orgiastic frenzy – then go back to the office and sell every one of the poor bastards down the tub for a nickel apiece”

– Hunter S. Thompson (from Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail, ’72)

#187 jess on 03.02.16 at 3:54 pm

Former Chesapeake Energy CEO Aubrey McClendon died in a fiery car crash on Wednesday, one day after being indicted by a federal grand jury.
cnn….”drove straight into” a wall of an overpass.”?
=======

Tuesday, March 1, 2016
Former CEO Indicted for Masterminding Conspiracy Not to Compete for Oil and Natural Gas Leases

Aubrey K. McClendon has been charged by a federal grand jury with conspiring to rig bids for the purchase of oil and natural gas leases in northwest Oklahoma, the Department of Justice announced today.

The indictment alleges that McClendon orchestrated a conspiracy between two large oil and gas companies to not bid against each other for the purchase of certain oil and natural gas leases in northwest Oklahoma. During this conspiracy, which ran from December 2007 to March 2012, the conspirators would decide ahead of time who would win the leases. The winning bidder would then allocate an interest in the leases to the other company. McClendon instructed his subordinates to execute the conspiratorial agreement, which included, among other things, withdrawing bids for certain leases and agreeing on the allocation of interests in the leases between the conspiring companies.

“While serving as CEO of a major oil and gas company, the defendant formed and led a conspiracy to suppress prices paid to leaseholders in northwest Oklahoma,” said Assistant Attorney General Bill Baer of the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division. “His actions put company profits ahead of the interests of leaseholders entitled to competitive bids for oil and gas rights on their land. Executives who abuse their positions as leaders of major corporations to organize criminal activity must be held accountable for their actions.”

#188 Noel on 03.02.16 at 4:09 pm

“It’s impossible the average house in Canada – which requires 71% of average gross income to carry (with 25% down) – will retain its value in the current economy, unless families have an infinite capacity for debt.”

Indeed, or its possible that foreign investment will keep housing prices afloat. We do live in a global economy after all.

Whats the average income to house price in Sydney? Monte Carlo? Manhattan? Lucerne? All unsustainable? Why or why not?

#189 Snowboid on 03.02.16 at 4:31 pm

#80 Smoking Man on 03.01.16 at 8:58 pm…

“…Trump is our last chance…”

I understand why you like him so much, you are both characters created out of thin air, the results of your creative minds.

Much like his Grandpa (who started his first ‘hotel’ in Bennett, BC), Donald Drumpf created a vision using the Trump name as a facade, but with nothing inside the shell.

While you do not harm anyone with your Smoking Man character (other than offending a few Nectonites), Mr. Drumpf could easily destroy the US within his first ten minutes in office.

Our many Republican neighbours here in Phoenix dislike Trump as much as Clinton, but believe Hillary will be the next president.

BTW, there are thirteen listings in Long Branch – but you should be more careful walking to Timmies, it is like 400 metres, right?

#190 Snowboid on 03.02.16 at 4:31 pm

#155 HellandBack on 03.02.16 at 12:05 pm…

It may be happening in Kelowna too, a unit identical to ours was just listed at 25% above market value!

#191 Mark on 03.02.16 at 4:38 pm

“Executives who abuse their positions as leaders of major corporations to organize criminal activity must be held accountable for their actions.””

So they went after Aubrey McClendon (RIP), but haven’t even touched the tech sector executives (including the late Steve Jobs) who allegedly conspired to rig salaries for tech professionals in the Silicon Valley.

Pretty much tells you how corrupt the US is at this point. One group of favoured individuals can run a racketeering scheme and only face minor retribution (a class action lawsuit that basically awarded affected tech workers pennies on the dollar for their real losses). While McClendon et al were facing serious jail time for conspiracy and racketeering should the allegations be proven.

Personally I’m convinced the rule of law in the US is dead.

#192 Rexx Rock on 03.02.16 at 4:39 pm

One long time realtor told me the other day that we ain’t seen nothing yet.All rich chinese will park at least some of their wealth in Canada.Comercial and residential real estate will be bought by them.They see Canada as an easy place to hide money with no language barriers.

A realtor, eh? Shocking insight. — Garth

#193 45north on 03.02.16 at 4:52 pm

IHCTD9: If the market blows, all those millions stay in those same lucky Canadian sellers’ bank accounts. Specuvestors lose big on their last flip, but not necessarily ending up broke. The minority of rich Chinese wealth parkers lose some paper wealth – probably not a big deal unless they had dumped everything they had into the Van RE market.

if you think people get upset when the Chinese buy, wait ’till they sell

if a speculator loses big on their flip, it’s theoretically possible he doest end up broke. But not likely.

#194 Nemesis on 03.02.16 at 4:53 pm

#MoreShockingRevelationsFrom[redacted]™,Or… #TheNewBoatPeople?…

[TimesColonist] – Buying wave sparks bidding battles for Victoria real estate

…” Binab sealed a deal Monday for a house at 177 Joseph St. in Fairfield. It was listed at $1.2 million. A local buyer beat out the competition with an unconditional offer at $152,000 above the asking price.

The successful bidder prevailed against buyers from California, Paris, Vancouver and another from Victoria, he said Tuesday.

Another listing at 1632 Kenmore Rd. in Saanich sold for $58,000 above its $600,000 asking price, Binab said. The accepted bid came from Victoria. Other offers were submitted by a local resident, and two from China.”…

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/buying-wave-sparks-bidding-battles-for-victoria-real-estate-1.2188107

#195 jess on 03.02.16 at 4:59 pm

promises to continue Obama’s policies ?
(the Whistleblower Protection Enhancement Act and the Presidential Policy Directive 19 )
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/obameter/promise/426/increase-protections-for-whistleblowers/

…”complaints about the company’s policy of disguising payments as grants and lavishing expensive trips and entertainment on doctors and hospital administrators in order to sell equipment fell on deaf ears within the company. …

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/02/news/companies/whistleblower-olympus-medical-equipment/index.html?iid=SF_LN
==================

business “trips”
…”compensated directly and through third-party agents for sightseeing and tourist activities…The improper payments were disguised as legitimate commissions or business expenses in company books and records.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
2016-29
Washington D.C., Feb. 16, 2016 —

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced that a Massachusetts-based technology company and its Chinese subsidiaries agreed to pay more than $28 million to settle parallel civil and criminal actions involving violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA).
…”the misconduct continued unabated for several years,” said Kara Brockmeyer, Chief of the SEC Enforcement Division’s FCPA Unit.

=========
…”his complaints about the company’s policy of disguising payments as grants and lavishing expensive trips and entertainment on doctors and hospital administrators in order to sell equipment fell on deaf ears within the company. ”

Whistleblower wins $51 million in kickback and bribery case …
money.cnn.com/2016/03/…/whistleblower-olympus-medical-equipment/
2 hours ago – Whistleblower to get $51 million after medical device company admits to kickbacks and bribes.

#196 cramar on 03.02.16 at 5:08 pm

#72 Jackie Bling on 03.01.16 at 8:36 pm

And is the dentists paying 3 million for a lot the reason I’m paying 1400 dollars for a simple filling these days?

—————–
Makes sense!

That is ANOTHER reason for living in small town Canada that I never thought of before. Cheaper services! My last filings were $182 & $137, including x-rays I believe.

Last week my wife went re. a tooth that keeps causing pain. They already did a root canal previous, so were puzzled as to the cause. They did an examination, took two x-rays, and determined it was probably a gum issue that needs a specialist to look at, which they notified on her behalf. All for NO CHARGE! Can’t beat that! Maybe they considered it warrantee work.

Come to think of it, I went once re. a chip on a filling done a year before. I said jokingly that I was there for “warrantee work,” and they didn’t charge me for redoing the filling either.

Did I mention that I love small-town Ontario?

#197 max on 03.02.16 at 5:15 pm

Mark knows absolutely nothing on how NAFTA works. Sure you need the visa to work in tech for a company. But a self employed individual has many no visa needed opportunities in the U.S. Even construction workers have it easier then those in tech.

Any Canadian crosses into the U.S. they are given an invisible visa, with many grey areas for business.

#198 jess on 03.02.16 at 5:17 pm

From the other day
@#130 SWL1976 on 03.01.16 at 12:49 pm

Don’t know your ‘hopscotch’ from a ‘spinversion’? A primer on Treasury’s anti-inversion rules
https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl2645.aspx

#199 Tony on 03.02.16 at 5:20 pm

Re: #19 common sense on 03.01.16 at 6:38 pm

Oil and the stock markets will get flattened next week as will the Canadian dollar. The FED the bankers and the plunge protection team have pumped the market to squeeze the short sellers. The U.S. jobs report is out this Friday. Expect oil to drop about 12 percent next week and the stock market to drop about 10 percent next week. Buy gold and silver no matter what the job figures are.

#200 Mark on 03.02.16 at 5:22 pm

“All rich chinese will park at least some of their wealth in Canada.Comercial and residential real estate will be bought by them.”

Great, bring it on. Because, at preset, any evidence of “Chinese money” in Canada thus far is scant. Besides, with all the capital liberated from a historically low-returning asset class, Canadians will have the ability to pursue much higher returning ventures such as ownership in active businesses with historically significantly positive real returns.

Why would anyone in Canada want to own RE if they can “rent” it from “Chinese” for an implied interest rate of 2-3%/year, and invest their own money at 6-7%? Canadians would be a heck of a lot richer if we were able to pull this off, but alas, its mostly a fantasy that “Chinese” would be so silly as to invest solely in some of the most expensive assets in Canada (and arguably, the world!). “Chinese” can buy XIU funds just like the rest of us — there’s no reason they’re inherently limited to just investing in RE.

#201 liqudincalgary on 03.02.16 at 5:47 pm

Bonhomme Carnaval on 03.01.16 at 6:25 pm
It will be epic!

==========================================

no wonder quebeckers have a god complex

#202 acdel on 03.02.16 at 5:57 pm

#99 Mark

Nice rant but what does it have to do with your original post??

Get off your ass and go down to a construction site and speak to the one’s that are actually involved in the industry that actually builds the homes; ask them about what is actually happening in the field, as opposed to pulling some statistical data to make yourself sound knowledgeable to attempt to prove your point. You have no have no idea!

I do like your point on #109.

#203 maxx on 03.02.16 at 6:40 pm

#54 Herf on 03.01.16 at 7:57 pm

” “The first group heads for despair. The second grows euphoric.

So, the country suffers from economic bipolar disorder? What’s the economic equivalent of lithium?”

Simple. Raise rates. Increase the cost of money.
The best teacher of fiscal prudence there is.

#204 Rentin on 03.03.16 at 1:07 am

GT – If you were living in China, and had money to invest, where would direct your hard earned yaun? Shanghai stock market? Risk is not an absolute term. Very good two sided article I just saw:

http://www.sauder.ubc.ca/Faculty/People/Faculty_Members/~/media/Files/Faculty%20Research/Publications/Helsley-Paper-BoomsBustsBubbles.ashx

#205 Sunny Dispatches from Under the Shady Bridge on 03.03.16 at 1:56 am

I meant to comment earlier but I had to arrange a meeting in order to come up with a process where I could have a sunny and transparent consultation on how we’d arrange a meeting to create a consultation to formulate a positive, transparent, sunny comment in response to your blog. This was not easy, mind you, what with everyone still focused on Kathleen Wynne grinning awkwardly at the pink dick volcano she had helped create while enquiring of those youngsters, especially the young girl standing beside her “What would we use this for?” fresh in our minds. Even we were uncomfortable enough to forgo selfies.

It is incredible, however, that you would write about this subject on a day like today. For god’s sake man did you not see the news reports from the GTA? They had one young girl on there that courageously relayed how she almost died being forced to go to school today, she slipped three times! Three times! SHE ALMOST DIED!Have you no humanity?

Oh yeah and F all those idiots that paid to much for a house because they were going to double their money in a year and are soon to be impoverished.

By the way I was talking to Donny, sometimes known as Donald J Trump to you peasents and apparently he got wind of your blog where you mentioned him the other day. I will quote what he said about it. “Who this Garth Turner. I’ve never met him and don’t know anything about him. I know people though and I looked into him, you know researched him. I know people you know. He’s supposed to be a real estate expert but I asked my contacts and he’s never even made a bribe at the planning commission in Manhattan, no one’s ever dealt with him down there. Let’s face it folks if he has never bribed or tried to bribe someone in New York city he can’t be much of a real estate expert”

#206 Sunny Dispatches from Under the Shady Bridge on 03.03.16 at 2:06 am

DELETED

#207 Sunny Dispatches from Under the Shady Bridge on 03.03.16 at 2:36 am

“#197 max on 03.02.16 at 5:15 pm

“Mark knows absolutely nothing on how NAFTA works. Sure you need the visa to work in tech for a company. But a self employed individual has many no visa needed opportunities in the U.S. Even construction workers have it easier then those in tech.

Any Canadian crosses into the U.S. they are given an invisible visa, with many grey areas for business.”

Mark knows everything about everything. As a matter of fact I often just think about things like what I might want for dinner and a few hours later I look at this blog and Mark has posted a complete, detailed and thorough recipe for what I ended up eating, it’s uncanny, freaky. Mark knows everything. Just ask him, he will verify that.

Interesting fact though, Mark is Donald Trump’s top advisor on NAFTA issues. He is actually responsible for the calculation of how many feet higher the wall we be when any Mexican or former Mexican authority says Mexico won’t pay for the wall. You have to hand it to Mark. Could you do the complicated equation of Mexican Politician statement versus wall height? Exactly, I didn’t think so. Only a sexual intellect is capable of such complicated configurations.

I salute Mark, Smoking Dillhole, Free-dumb First, some of the Shawns of each spelling and several more people I’m forgetting or omitting. I truly wish for them all to go be fruitfull and multiply themselves.

#208 Sunny Dispatches from Under the Shady Bridge on 03.03.16 at 2:45 am

“#70 TurnerNation on 03.01.16 at 8:32 pm”

That is frightening. I don’t really buy it but there is some truth in it which is terrifying.