Are we there yet?

SUCCESS modified

Hopped up on Starbucks and mold, Vancouverites are an excitable bunch. Especially when it comes to the local obsession, real estate. But lately this fetish is off the charts. Makes one think we may be nearing the end game.

Last week a delusional dink paid $4.23 million for a Kitsilano house. But not just any house. A normal one, on a regular lot – only 33 feet wide. Renovated? Sure. Palatial? Nah. Worse, the greedy sellers had asked for only $3.495 million, so the dink threw an extra $735,000 on the pile. More bizarre, the house has a rental apartment in the basement, so some person will end up sharing your $4-million digs while paying the same as if it were a $1 million shack.

KITS

The house, by the way, is not in the best hood. A good one, absolutely. But not where the rich people live. Oh yeah, and it’s made of wood and 104 years old.

From far away – in Maple Ridge (50 km inland, an hour’s drive into the wilderness) – Jerry sends us this report:

“This past summer we noticed a vacant house up for sale down the street from ours.  Out of curiosity we engaged an independent realtor and viewed the property extensively; it was not pretty, and had a long list of required DIY fixes.  The price was listed at $450k, but given the work it needed I told the realtor I would be interested in the $350-400k range.  He refused to even put in an offer unless I was willing to hit at least $400k, so I pulled the plug and walked away (laughing).  It sat on the market all summer and was eventually pulled from the market with no successful bids.

“Well, this same house was relisted this week, with the same realtor. Nothing new has been done to it . . . in fact, the fence is now collapsing (someone DROVE THROUGH IT) and the yard is hideously overgrown.  All of the pictures in the listing are the same ones used last summer.  The asking price now?  $550k!!!!!  Given how the property has actually deteriorated since we last saw it just over 6 months ago, I am not sure how they might hope to justify their 22% ($100k) price hike?

“The saddest/craziest part?  We actually think it might sell this time.  The fever in the YVR market is SO high right now that people are making stupid, highly-emotional moves; we are seeing people around us begging for leads on houses for sale so that they can stay in our area (they sold their house and now need a new one!).  Sellers are delusional and buyers are gullible – put them together and they’ll just end up pulling each other off a cliff.  I just cannot wrap my head around this.  It’s madness, and it’s maddening.  We like to think there is a limited number of Greater Fools out there and the market will have to normalize to the mean at some point . . . but, at least in YVR, there appears to be no end in sight.  The Greater Fools are multiplying!”

Well, down on the US border is the weird little enclave of White Rock – also about 50 km away from the bright lights, bike paths and hookers of downtown YVR. (If you ever go there be prepared for a shock. The signature honking big white rock is actually just painted white, and flaking.)

“We bought a small 50’s era rancher here in 2014,” says Troy. “Every week now I get notes in my mailbox asking me if I want to sell my house. Some are written in colourful felt pens like a 16 year old girl wrote them, and some have such bad grammar, it seems a waste to have them professionally printed.

“Our neighbour sold her house in a 30 hour bidding war for $100k+ over asking.”

So here is what Troy received. Good realtor porn, and bad realtor porn:

NOTE modified copy NOTE 2

It’s interesting an Angus Reid poll released Friday in a nation where people are more house-horny than any other place on earth showed fear is starting to stalk the streets. Two-thirds of people (65%) said they think the government should intervene in the housing market to increase fairness. That’s code for saying house prices are stupid high and affordability has collapsed.

In fact 56% of respondents who live in cities volunteered that real estate prices are now “unreasonable,” and measures need to be taken to rein them in. And it’s not just citizens of the bubbly places spouting that. “No fewer than 45 per cent in Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Montreal or Halifax view prices as either high or unreasonably high,” reported the pollster. As you might expect from the media blitz, folks are particularly up in arms these days about assignment clauses and realtor tactics (plus foreigners) since nobody ever wants to accept blame themselves.

Nothing new here, though. This blog’s told you repeatedly how Canadians are trading savings for mortgage debt, retiring with fat mortgages, unable to cope with any increase in monthly bills, and racking up unprecedented levels of household borrowing. The very fact only 7% of us maxed out TFSA contributions, with no public outrage when the government slashed the tax shelter by 50% is all the proof required that real estate’s warped a nation’s collective mind. It’s a one-asset country now. And that commodity is bouncing off the ceiling.

It doesn’t actually matter if interest rates stay put for another year or two, if commodity prices inch back or the new gang in Ottawa becomes more popular than weed. Real estate cannot continue to rise when the average family can’t afford the average home. When two-thirds of people think it’s so out of control that politicians must intervene, and more than half say prices are bananas, the fix is in.

Besides, we all want the Kits guy to get smoked. Am I right?

261 comments ↓

#1 Andrew on 02.26.16 at 5:18 pm

First. Boom

#2 MEANWHILE IN FRANCE on 02.26.16 at 5:22 pm

White Rock. Nice little place. A bit stuck in the 1980’s maybe?
More Fish & Chips shops there than in Brighton, UK.

#3 Peter on 02.26.16 at 5:23 pm

This is really not going to end well.

Did you see where Alberta’s begging Ottawa for extended EI payments and stimulus cash?

I think Justin should go to rural Alberta and do photo-ops of himself handing out the cheques personally, and everyone getting a cheque should have to shake his hand and say “Merci beaucoup”.

#4 Forzudo on 02.26.16 at 5:24 pm

All seven-figure business transactions should begin with rainbow-coloured offers.

#5 Buy Low Sell High on 02.26.16 at 5:27 pm

Oh, Vicky Wang, thank you for providing me with that high quality Golden Service! Does it come with a release if I buy a house from you?

#6 gut check on 02.26.16 at 5:30 pm

#2 MEANWHILE IN FRANCE on 02.26.16 at 5:22 pm
White Rock. Nice little place. A bit stuck in the 1980’s maybe?
More Fish & Chips shops there than in Brighton, UK.
*******************
the 80s!? Fish & Chips?!!
this sounds like another heaven about to be turned into a shitpile.
how soon till a RioCan center pops up with all the usual suspects?

I miss diversity.

#7 Suede on 02.26.16 at 5:32 pm

Smoking man, how do we make loot on Trump becoming president?

War industries = $
RE = $
Things that Trump has $ interest = $

What is my herdonometer missing?

Also we have to be mindful of the dark horse Bloomberg if he throws his hat in the ring

#8 gut check on 02.26.16 at 5:33 pm

“Real estate cannot continue to rise when the average family can’t afford the average home.”

************************

yeah. been that way for years, though. maybe maybe you’re ready to concede that ‘the average family’ hasn’t been buying all these properties?

#9 Jimmy on 02.26.16 at 5:35 pm

Furst!!!!

#10 Vundo on 02.26.16 at 5:36 pm

Is high quality Golden Service available without the purchase of a house in Vancouver?

I may be a newcomer to financial literacy, but one thing I do understand well is risk. Even without knowing a lot about finance or real estate, it has become painfully obvious to me that risk in this market is, as The Donald would put it, YUGE. If the guy who bought that house in Kits is a house flipper with balls of steel I could understand if not agree with his reasons. If the guy is anything like a normal person, then it is utterly mystifying that he could have that kind of money yet be so oblivious to the enormous level of risk.

#11 SWL1976 on 02.26.16 at 5:38 pm

Hopped up on Starbucks and mold, Vancouverites are an excitable bunch

Classic, Garth

Great intro

#12 Larry Laffer on 02.26.16 at 5:39 pm

Really love your first pic!
A convertible trailer.

#13 Jimmy on 02.26.16 at 5:40 pm

White Rock = ultimate for sand castle building.

#14 JSS on 02.26.16 at 5:41 pm

“Real estate cannot continue to rise when the average family can’t afford the average home.”

I respect this blog, and read it regularly. But there are high house prices in most ALL of Canada, and real estate STILL reigns supreme. It’s been several years now, since we have been predicting a price correction. Nothing yet. House prices in some parts of the country may still be rising, but where the house prices have dropped, the drop hasn’t been much at all.

There’s hardly any decent paying jobs in this country, the weather sucks, taxes are high, average population age is high, productivity is low, we’re not innovating anything, everyone’s like hand-to-mouth $200 away from financial collapse. Yet house prices still pounding ahead. What gives?

#15 MoneyDriven on 02.26.16 at 5:41 pm

Thanks Garth,
As long as BC finance minster owns 7 investment property and his recommendation is if you can’t afford it then move to Abbostford then nothing is going to change.

We have a bc premier that explains high cost of real estate is due to our great economy in BC. This was just over 6 months ago while we were in recession officially.

And the finance minister move to increase downpayment was nuked by bc increase in Property tax transfer break.

Not to mention Vancouver real estate is being treated as swiss bank account to keep their money safe and away from their government. (lets agree to disagree on this on)

Sure houses will correct eventually and there is no doubt about that but house prices gone up 20- 30% just last year with crazy momentum pushing them forward.

– How much correction could we possible have? it wont even go to 2015 prices. Not to mention the house prices are very sticky and takes years for them to come down.

Garth, How much correction do you for see? just a ball park. (10%, 10%-20%, 20%-30%, 30%+) and what kind of timeframe

Thanks for your blog

#16 Goldie on 02.26.16 at 5:45 pm

Even if I could afford one, I’d never buy a house here in the GVRD. Prices are so high that it’s not even on my radar. With that said, it has never helped our market when the government has intervened. They need to stay out of it and let the problem work itself out. As Garth has written, the locals are fools for paying these prices, but it won’t be until something happens which discourages foreign speculators that we really see any sort of substantial correction.

#17 RainBird on 02.26.16 at 5:47 pm

Interest rates would not affect this market in yvr since these million $ sales are purchased in cash (foreign cash). The sellers, in turn, armed with all this cash, move to the Burbs, again, paying in cash. A classic domino effect.

Most of the time the market is driven by first time buyers. This time it’s the first time buyers, alright, but foreign ones.

Even if some property is bought by a first time buyer, most if the time they were given cash by the parents who just sold their multi-million dollar house to a foreigner.

The domino effect continues.

#18 Smoking Man's Old Man on 02.26.16 at 5:47 pm

I don’t understand, if real estate is locally driven, how does someone come up with 4.23 million for a house? What kind of career can support that amount of purchase power? How much leverage can a person attain?

Can you enlighten us Garth?

#19 Victoria on 02.26.16 at 5:50 pm

I heard the following last week that RE will keep going up and up in Victoria because EVERYBODY in Vancouver wants to move here (also in the world).

I just heard the best. All the people that lost their jobs in Alberta will be moving here buying up property. ??????? Seriously?

#20 fleabitten monkey on 02.26.16 at 5:54 pm

I hope our kits guy can at least afford to boot the renter downstairs without compromising his cashflow lol

#21 S.Bby on 02.26.16 at 5:54 pm

Prices up 30% YOY (Jan15-Jan16) in Vancouver.

I work with a guy who is trying to buy a SFH in White Rock/South Surrey and he says it is impossible to get in on anything. Buyers are routinely bidding $100K over asking and houses sell within days with multiple offers. His realtor told him many of the buyers are not local. I have seen other RE booms in YVR but they were not like this. It is total madness.

#22 Bram on 02.26.16 at 5:54 pm

Is it this one?
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16592060/22378-124-AVENUE-Maple-Ridge-British-Columbia-V2X4J5

If so…
Half a million is not so bad, it seems to come with a freaking 16000 ft² lot. That’s huge for yvr standards.
Big enough for four houses and four backyards.

Bram

#23 zee on 02.26.16 at 6:00 pm

I know you disagree but its mostly HAM pushing prices higher in YVR than the other areas in Canada.

#24 Burt on 02.26.16 at 6:04 pm

I would be curious if someone who thinks that YVR is local money, could explain how a 33ft lot with a 100 year old home comes to be 4million dollars?

How many people in all of Canada have the income to service this type of debt?

How many people have the wealth to park in a 33ft home in Kits like this? (If you think its a cash buy)

Are we supposed to believe that someone put 5% down on this and financed the rest with $16,000 a month payments?

How about the homes further west than Kits, you know, the ones where 4 million would be closer to a down payment…

This is all local speculators with willing local credit unions participating?

Seriously?

#25 earlybird on 02.26.16 at 6:07 pm

Haha…”Hopped up on Starbucks and mould” too funny!House poor hell..the new pension…

#26 AACI Home-Dog on 02.26.16 at 6:09 pm

Think of it as $4,200k…there now…doesn’t that sound a bit more affordable ? No ? Ok then, try a town in the interior of BC, where that house may only be $300k, and may have 3 times the land.

#27 Bytor the Snow Dog on 02.26.16 at 6:14 pm

If there was still real investigative journalism being practiced as a trade, SOMEONE would get to the bottom of this.

Of course, if that happened the whole house o cards would come crashing down.

And we can’t have that, can we?

#28 james on 02.26.16 at 6:15 pm

Apparently all the dolts who are asking for government intervention in the housing market are unaware that part of the problem is due to GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION.

You know, the CMHC being but one example. Taxpayer subsidized mortgage insurance for banks, resulting in moral hazard.

I can understand bidding wars in Silicon Valley. A couple of years ago I had coworkers complaining about how they had to bid 100k over asking.

However, that is a region with JOBS. What does Vancouver have to compare with the jobs in the Bay Area? Or Boston? Or NYC?

Nothing.

#29 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 02.26.16 at 6:19 pm

it’s good being a top broker in yvr

#30 Cj on 02.26.16 at 6:23 pm

I’m sure this question has been asked before but how do you short Van RE? Or just RE in general?

#31 Mark on 02.26.16 at 6:23 pm

“Interest rates would not affect this market in yvr since these million $ sales are purchased in cash (foreign cash). ”

Not a shred of evidence to support the injection of any meaningful amount of “foreign cash” into the Vancouver RE marketplace.

I would be curious if someone who thinks that YVR is local money, could explain how a 33ft lot with a 100 year old home comes to be 4million dollars?

Speculation. Realtor-types buying hoping that someone will come along and pay $4M +. Maybe another Realtor or speculator type.

How many people in all of Canada have the income to service this type of debt?

Doesn’t matter. RE is lent against based on its valuation, not based on incomes or anything like that.

This is all local speculators with willing local credit unions participating?

Most of it (but not literally all of it), yes. The middlemen (ie: the banks) are glad to have a cut, and believe they can extricate themselves from their investment (ie: mortgages) faster than prices can go down.

Its pretty simple. Seller sells house, takes money to the bank (which is often a credit union, because they “pay higher interest” — interest that’s higher on account of the additional risk I might add!). Bank lends money to the buyer. Its a vicious cycle that continues until confidence is lost. Heck, even the credit unions have pulled back significantly, and the explicitly subprime lenders have experienced explosive growth. Usually a sign that things are going to fall apart fairly quickly.

#32 Doug t on 02.26.16 at 6:25 pm

Nuke those Kits peeps and their Range Rover cult. Nuke the idiots that drank the koolaid served up by the HGTV, realtors, mortgage groups and banks. Nuke Alberta for living the last two decades in decadence and not believing it would end. Nuke the banks and government for penalizing savers. Nuke ISIS cause they just plain need nuked.

#33 Blacksheep on 02.26.16 at 6:27 pm

“Real estate cannot continue to rise when the average family can’t afford the average home”
———————————————–
Exaaactly…….

So how the hell, is this happening, and why the hell has It been happening, year after year, with no end in sight?

Hint, it has ZERO to do with the average family, sporting a lowly income of 70K, regardless of what you’ve been told.

In fact the ‘average family’ was priced out of a Van. single detached 10 years ago, but yet it just keeps going up.

What could it be?

#34 tundra pete on 02.26.16 at 6:29 pm

Was at SIL & BIL’s house in Coquitlam. Houses around them are selling in $700-800k. They are poor as church mice, haven’t saved a dime in 35 years of him working for Canada Post. Says he is not ready at 60 to retire yet. They love to spend time in Mexico.

I suggested to them they might want to consider selling, investing the loot and spending time in Mexico with no worries. Of course I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about. She said because the lrt is going to Coquitlam Centre, that they are waiting for the prices to go up. She told me that “it’s different here”. Very soon they will be selling for a million.

At least I tried. They are gonna miss the boat. Only thing they will get waiti g for the lrt is gonna be crackheads using the lrt from Vancouver to Coquitlam to b and e houses there.

#35 Panhead on 02.26.16 at 6:29 pm

When it’s not raining out here in 604land I swear you can actually smell the money …and it smells kind of sweet … if you own that is …

#36 not 1st on 02.26.16 at 6:31 pm

I know exactly where there is an endless supply of greater fools to keep buying YVR real estate.

And just for clarification, there is no one “Kits guy” involved in that deal.

#37 Andres on 02.26.16 at 6:32 pm

Great picture Garth!

#38 Heisenberg on 02.26.16 at 6:32 pm

Of course it’s HAM driving the prices up in the YVR. And no, there’s no stats to support that because the government and realtors don’t want the truth to be out there. And Victoria is not at all comparable to Vancouver for foreign appeal.

I think HAM is a good thing because that foreign cash inflow is what’s keeping our province alive. The truth is ugly sometimes.

What concerns me is what’s going to happen with all the other provinces? Bank of Canada has sold all of its gold reserves in the last several years because it figured it had “black gold” to back up it’s currency….ooops. Looks like the big bank has nothing to back up our currency now.

So when the previously “richest” province (Alberta) is broke, and many of the mortgages and shiny truck loans are defaulted (after all the EI runs out), what’s going to happen to the banks?

Two canadian banks failed in the mid-1980s. Will others fail again when they’re stuck with no cash and ever dropping Alberta RE prices?

I fear for the rest of Canada, but glad I’m in BC.

#39 acdel on 02.26.16 at 6:35 pm

#24 Burt
I would be curious if someone who thinks that YVR is local money, could explain how a 33ft lot with a 100 year old home comes to be 4million dollars?

How many people in all of Canada have the income to service this type of debt?

How many people have the wealth to park in a 33ft home in Kits like this? (If you think its a cash buy)

Are we supposed to believe that someone put 5% down on this and financed the rest with $16,000 a month payments?

How about the homes further west than Kits, you know, the ones where 4 million would be closer to a down payment…

This is all local speculators with willing local credit unions participating?

Seriously?

———————————————————–

You’re correct, how is it possible? I lived in Van during the mid to late 80’s; what a great city during those days. I have returned a few times since then and the demographics have completely changed, the once great city is a shadow of itself (sad). There is no way that you can tell me that it is just the selfish locals (who live on Canadian wages) that are escalating these prices. Stupid politician’s are or have destroyed another part of Canada. Unless we as a nation do something then we might as well grab our ankles and k*ss our *sses goodbye. As an Albertan it makes me sick as to what is happening on the West Coast.

Five offers were from local bidders. — Garth

#40 valleyrenter on 02.26.16 at 6:36 pm

Upon reading the full spot about above mentioned property, the realtor in the piece had said he had 5 offers from locals.

#41 not 1st on 02.26.16 at 6:38 pm

Re: Trump

Why is this guy scarier than Carson who visits Jesus in his down time and thinks the pyramids are grain bins.

Or Cruz who things he is hand picked by god to lead the states.

Or Hilary who was asleep at the switch as “secret”ary of state

Or Christie who shut down an entire city to exact revenge on some staffer

Or Sanders who would turn the US into socialist backwater

Trump is just as good as any of those. And the NAFTA is meaningless now anyway, all the jobs worth having have been sent to China and Mexico by now so tear it up.

Besides most of the world elects the most pr*ckest guy they can find. Maybe the US should counter with one too.

#42 Babbler on 02.26.16 at 6:38 pm

“When two-thirds of people think it’s so out of control that politicians must intervene, and more than half say prices are bananas, the fix is in.” – Garth

————————————————————-

Here’s some news. The politicians have already intervened (CMHC, Massive Immigration, ZIRP, etc). People expect the government to save them money? Or, to govern prudently? That’s a laugh.

#43 Darry on 02.26.16 at 6:39 pm

Re Burt #24
I’ll explain: it is not local money driving up prices in Vancouver. It is obvious to everyone living here, especially when the median wage is $45k/year.

#44 jess on 02.26.16 at 6:39 pm

Carmel Place for the zeneration
Located in Manhattan’s Kips Bay neighborhood, Carmel Place is the first micro-apartment development in New York City. Its 55 units range between 265 and 360 square feet, and market-rate units cost between $2,650 and $3,150 a month. (built in factories and then stacked)

#45 Still Waiting in YVR on 02.26.16 at 6:39 pm

The recycled news that knows no bounds! It’s been ludicrous in Vancouver for over a decade now while these weekly discussions continue… As others have said, Gov’t is sitting on it’s hands, doing zero to keep this bubble from growing into something unimaginable. It makes no sense whatsoever to fuel this thing. Somehow this is supposed to be great for all? We continue to be trapped in bizarro world here. It’s a coastal city in much demand! It just makes sense! Problem? What problem? And the sickest thing of all is that as the months roll by, nothing changes. Nothing.

#46 45north on 02.26.16 at 6:40 pm

Last week a delusional dink paid $4.23 million for a Kitsilano house. But not just any house. A normal one, on a regular lot – only 33 feet wide.

I told you. 50% increase July 2015 to July 2016

and someone who could borrow $400,000 as a down payment stands to make $1 million. If he sells.

and it might just keep going. Capital flight out of China.

#47 Damn on 02.26.16 at 6:41 pm

This is so bad it has no chance to end well. If the foreign buyers are the cause of this madness the government should intervene because locals are competing with that money and are setting up a whole province/country for failure. I am saying 6-12 months and we’ll see the truth, the correction is coming and will be a painful one, like with 10+% unemployment.
I am wondering why should i pay taxes and work in B.C. if i am not able to buy anything with 3 bedrooms in less than 30 km from downtown? I am hearing couple of 2 doctors being overbid for 2+ million property, if these people cannnot put roots here, who will?

#48 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.26.16 at 6:44 pm

# 19 Victoria

We heard things like that from realtors and others in 2010 right before house prices here in Greater Victoria declined 15% or more, despite falling 5-year fixed rates.

Indeed Americans buyers also heard things like that from their own house pumpers up to 2006, just before house prices in cities like Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Phoenix, etc lost more than half their value.

There’s no evidence that any of these groups of buyers have had any effect on house prices in Victoria at any time.

House pumpers will say anything to make a sale. Nothing new there.

#49 Still Waiting in YVR on 02.26.16 at 6:45 pm

#24 Burt – hmmmmmm very thought provoking observations, Mr. Burt. $16,000/mo mortgage payment? Let’s just let that sink in…. and Spring is the hottest market of the year and it’s just around the corner ;) get in now!!

#50 Island Girl on 02.26.16 at 6:52 pm

I like to think of the real estate market like a string of dominoes, you can place them one after another and make them get bigger and smaller and they will all happily stand until you just give one a little tap, then everything goes down. Not necessarily all at once, but one by one.

Sure prices aren’t going down in any noticeable way, but it has to happen because it is just too unsustainable.

#51 46 and 2 on 02.26.16 at 6:55 pm

We are witnessing the accelerated re-birth of conventional oil as Alberta prime resource. The investors, bankers and grey hairs that took a run at making the tar sands a viable play thru outright speculation have failed. With the exception of what is constructed and producing, the great tar sands bubble is over and done. If Notley’s legacy is to be $30 billion or so in debt, Alberta may never recover.

#52 acdel on 02.26.16 at 6:57 pm

#25 acdel

Five offers were from local bidders. — Garth

——————————————————
Love your blog Garth, but I just do not buy that, there is more to it then that! Van does not offer those kind of wages to support those inflated prices.

Nobody – in any Canadian city – buys a multi-million dollar home based on their ‘wages’. Do you realize how dumb that sounds? — Garth

#53 Ray Skunk on 02.26.16 at 6:58 pm

Is Vicky Wang’s “Golden Service” a fetish of the type you’d see advertised in the back pages of NOW magazine?

Interesting little bit of value add there.

#54 hope & ruin on 02.26.16 at 7:00 pm

I was surprised when I heard about that survey the other night. That people want the govt to intervene.

I have a much easier solution. Don’t buy a house if you think they are too expensive. Just rent.

#55 rabi dmangycur on 02.26.16 at 7:06 pm

I found a really good link on the housing bubble in the USA.
Basically says the same thing as Garth but adds that yearly rental income should be more than 9% of purchase price to be viable. So a house in YVR at 2 mil should bring in 180k per year rent – or 15k per month! Good luck with that.

http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

#56 ignore the elephant on 02.26.16 at 7:07 pm

its true, the local in vancouver can’t afford the prices. and prices can keep rising because the local has not much to do with whats happening here. i know garth doesn’t agree but its mainly china cash thats buying these places. i live here , have for 37 years, i see it clearly. its as clear as day. garth should spend some time here. i like what he has to say and have followed his blog for years. the locals are buying condos that they can’t afford but not single family homes in vancouver, west van, north van and increasingly east van. there are vacant homes all over the place. its a sad situation but unless people are willing to see the giant elephant in the room we will continue along the path we are on. i look forward to reading the book about this when it all blows up. its not going to blow up because the locals can’t afford it it will be because the flow of offshore cash that is being cleaned and or hidden here is stopped. who knows when that will happen.

There were 42,326 property trades in YVR last year. Of those, an estimated 95% were made by locals. — Garth

#57 AB Boxster on 02.26.16 at 7:07 pm

Kind of reminds me of a recent article in the Washington Post about WalMart.

Seems the Mart is closing a number (269) of its smaller footprint stores in the good ole USA.
After these stores were originally built, all of the previously established small town local stores were forced out by Walmarts pricing power, and the ignorance of the local population to not support local business.

Now that Walmart is leaving , locals are left with no local options.

How could this possibly happen they wonder?
How unfair that we no longer have anywhere local to buy our copious amounts of junk.
Where are we going to buy our groceries?

‘We have seen the enemy, and he is us’

#58 acdel on 02.26.16 at 7:07 pm

#51 acdel
#25 acdel

Five offers were from local bidders. — Garth

——————————————————
Love your blog Garth, but I just do not buy that, there is more to it then that! Van does not offer those kind of wages to support those inflated prices.

Nobody – in any Canadian city – buys a multi-million dollar home based on their ‘wages’. Do you realize how dumb that sounds? — Garth
——————————————————–
That is not what I am saying, if you really believe that outside money is not escalating on what is happening on the West Coast then I will end it here saying that we agree to disagree.

#59 GTA Girl on 02.26.16 at 7:10 pm

Has Conrad Black sold his house yet?

The Ont provincial Libs just budgeted to expand the 400, 410 lanes. This along with the scheduled 427 highway extension. Here in north Toronto many were expecting this. Sadly you build more lanes and they fill right up with gridlock. Our provincial transport Minister gave a recent talk on how we must switch to transit. But our municipalities keep voting for sprawl, because their developer donors demand it. So now the White Belt is on chopping block, land near Oak Ridges Morraine is being gobbled up by speculators. The one guy who is really happy, is the owner of the ashphalt plant who just finished building new building….his recent political donations have paid off.
A correction needs to happen soon. New McMansions in Schomberg along two laned highway are selling for $1.5 mill a pop.

#60 When will real-estate turn? on 02.26.16 at 7:12 pm

When can we expect a so-called correction? (at least, in Vancouver or Toronto?)

Please pick one or more of
1) Interest rate goes up
a) Canadian Economy does really, really well
b) US economy does really, really well, they raise rates and we follow
c) Oil rebounds – ‘cuz Saudia Arabia, Russia, Iran all blinked in the game of chicken

2) Economy goes in shambles, massive job losses

3) Government monitors foreign money
a) crack down on foreign “investment”
b) cracks down on all those oversea dudes working with their wives/families in the country… oh wait, they’re Canadian resident, so that doesn’t count… suck it up

4) When you move.

#61 When will real-estate turn? on 02.26.16 at 7:13 pm

First

#62 common sense on 02.26.16 at 7:15 pm

Popcorn stocked, lazy boy primed and ready to enjoy when the various bubbles EXPLODE….

SHIT SHOW 2016!

#63 Here in Victoria on 02.26.16 at 7:19 pm

Who cares what prices were in 2010? Six years is a long time in the property world.
House next door listed last night. A feeding frenzy like there’s blood in the water. Non-stop cars coming and going all day, now Friday 4pm. At least 75 moisters on the hunt (no bs, wife was home and counting).
It will go for over asking.
And no, I am not a RE agent and have no skin in that game.

#64 TheSpangler on 02.26.16 at 7:21 pm

There were 42,326 property trades in YVR last year. Of those, an estimated 95% were made by locals. — Garth

Garth can you post your back up for that stat?

Done. — Garth

#65 Capt. Obvious on 02.26.16 at 7:23 pm

There’s hardly any decent paying jobs in this country, the weather sucks, taxes are high, average population age is high, productivity is low, we’re not innovating anything, everyone’s like hand-to-mouth $200 away from financial collapse. Yet house prices still pounding ahead. What gives?

Interest rates. Though, with nowhere further to go down, it’ll be interesting to see how much higher things can go. In a lot of markets prices are now below peak.

#66 Here in Victoria on 02.26.16 at 7:24 pm

Sold 18 months ago for $735K, will sell for $850K+ this time and may be torn down. But prices in Victoria are going nowhere. Or so I have been told.
People who live here on the ground, rather than inhabiting a cubicle somewhere with a Casio calculator, know better. Life is in front of you, not on a spreadsheet.

#67 ignore the elephant on 02.26.16 at 7:26 pm

There were 42,326 property trades in YVR last year. Of those, an estimated 95% were made by locals. — Garth

local realtors or lawyers buying on behalf of others .

wake up. i know those kind of stats get used but it doesn’t seem thats whats actually happening. i could be wrong but so could you. i have a few realtor pals and have had a few landlords that newly immigrated here from china. they tell me that its a no brainer…..its whats driving our market. I’m not saying that there are not people that actually work here buying houses in east van and renting out their basements so they can afford the payments…..that is happening with the help from their parents mainly….as they are all over 1.3 million now. but the vast majority of houses being ‘traded’ in vancouver proper are not from people that live and work in this city. come and visit.

The vast majority of trades are local-to-local. Any other belief is urban myth. — Garth

#68 Burt on 02.26.16 at 7:27 pm

Five offers were from local bidders. — Garth

Like the two 23 year olds who hold few dozen building sites around town? Vancouver raised and educated.

Guess where dad is, and what he does there? Land development in China.

Buyers certainly show up as locals. Doesn’t mean the money is.

#69 MoneyDriven on 02.26.16 at 7:32 pm

Nobody – in any Canadian city – buys a multi-million dollar home based on their ‘wages’. Do you realize how dumb that sounds? — Garth

Ofcourse they don’t. but MOST of the houses in Vancouver are over million and we had record number of sales. You blame it on local people and denying the HAM. Do you really think we have that many ultra rich “local people”.
Do you realize how dumb that sounds?

#70 Darry on 02.26.16 at 7:33 pm

Re “Nobody – in any Canadian city – buys a multi-million dollar home based on their ‘wages’. Do you realize how dumb that sounds? — Garth”

So, given that the average home price is over a million, I guess everyone who is buying these homes is using money other than “wages” After accounting for those who are trading up, I guess the money comes from somewhere else. Hmmmm, wonder where it comes from…

#71 Darry on 02.26.16 at 7:35 pm

“There were 42,326 property trades in YVR last year. Of those, an estimated 95% were made by locals. — Garth”

Sure, how many of those “locals” bought their way into the country through the giveaway immigrant investor program?And how have they contributed to the economy and communities?

The more I read here the happier I am not to call Vancouver home. And it isn’t because of the Asian folks living there. — Garth

#72 IKnow on 02.26.16 at 7:35 pm

Vancouver has been declared as a resort by HAM

Old logic and valuation may no longer apply, or at least not before the expiry dates of most boomers.

New normals

Have issue with that?

#73 DON on 02.26.16 at 7:35 pm

Always comes down to human nature.

When people are in the money…the outside world applies less to them or are less affected by the day to day grind and associated news.

When times turn for the worse and reality sets in, loss of job, security or paper money gain – people start to pay attention once again. The frustrating process of ebb and flow.

The Human factor is the catalyst.

The government in BC is worried that the wheels are about to fall of the rail on their watch. Oil creep is hitting BC ever so slowly. As another ‘promised’ LNG deal gets cancelled. The LNG prosperity fund is looking impossible. No worries though as the dummies are now filling the Prosperity fund with taxpayer money (yrs of increasing Medical Services Premiums, ICBC, Camping, Parking in Parks etc). No kidding (nothing else to tie the extra funds to, but reduced services and increased taxes of all sorts. The young are looking for change that will support their preconceived expectations. In the beginning this will be good – a revert to the mean – but like all things will be goosed the other way (extreme entitlement).

With respect, the boomers were the rebellious ones back in the 60-70s. big issues…even demanded rights (oops I should have told the elites in the crowd to cover their ears). Big changes took place back then and big changes are taking place again. This time round technology will quicken the pace. (ex., change.org)

Interesting times ahead:

China announces anti carrier missiles.
Russia announces showcase their air craft carrier destroyer
US (NATO) announces they are storing vehicles and tanks in Norway’s old cold war caves.
EU starting to get on Saudi for weapons/Yemen.
First Silk Road train voyage
BRICS trading in their own currencies.
The US feeling like they have to consider Russia a global player.

And Trump sweeping the nation…perhaps. But remember Trudeau came up the middle from last place.

#74 The Other Chris on 02.26.16 at 7:36 pm

A few posters laughed at me when I suggested the average price of a single family home in Vancouver would hit $5 million by mid-2018.

Now that looks highly probable. Who knows, it might even be possible by mid-to-late 2017.

Foolish. Will never happen. — Garth

#75 sanddancer on 02.26.16 at 7:41 pm

Do some research behind these crazy prices and you may begin to realize that debt burdens have very little to do with what’s happening.
People are “cashing out” out in areas like west side, west van etc and moving out into the burbs and buying like they just won the lottery. ..because most of them just did !!
Offshore $$ is accounting for a lot more than 5% of all this. …the $$ a month are staggering and spreading across the lower mainland.
Make some phone calls to people you trust out here Garth. …it’s a reality not fiction !

#76 Chaddywack on 02.26.16 at 7:51 pm

Garth, I’d argue that a lot of rich people live in Kits…..I rent in that area and all I see are designer bags, high end cars, and yoga pants……not that I look or anything.

#77 sanddancer on 02.26.16 at 7:53 pm

Absolutely NOT an urban myth Garth. …you are very very wrong about this

#78 RimJabba on 02.26.16 at 7:55 pm

Canadians are setting themselves up for a lot of heartache when reality (and gravity) kick in.

#79 Toronto Dweller on 02.26.16 at 7:56 pm

We seem to make the same mistakes as Americans did in the run up to GFC of 2008, minus the subprime and the market schemes to profit from that.

#80 ignore the elephant on 02.26.16 at 7:58 pm

The vast majority of trades are local-to-local. Any other belief is urban myth. — Garth

fine ……local to local but the ‘locals’ are being funded by vast amounts of cash from family in china. so much new money is here and so much more is being brought in by the family member that lives here . this is why i don’t think we will blow up until china cracks down hard on the rapid cash flight out of the country. this cash is the main reason for what is happening here. its great for the older generations that are selling to the new cash but very destructive for the next generations. anyone who thinks that the local person that works here and pays income tax is the majority buyer is not seeing what is happening here on the ground.

#81 NorthVanCondo on 02.26.16 at 7:59 pm

Garth;
You are likely correct that the majority of sales are to locals but prices are set ” at the margin” . It only takes a few sales to outsiders with loads of cash and everybody’s house is “worth” more. Here in YVR there are more than a few.

#82 GOLDWATER IN '64 !! on 02.26.16 at 8:07 pm

Shows how desperate the 2nd-tier corrupt chinese money-skimmers are getting, for anything to stick their hot money into.

We’ve seen this before, when ex-Iranian Shaw sympathizers were buying up Orange County lots, and condos in West Van.

This is way beyond white Ontario greed – that topped out at a million bucks for old properties which sit in a half-year of mind-numbing rain.

Now it reeks of desperation which we haven’t seen since the hand-over of Hong Kong back in the nineties. Mainland china is falling down and the perpetrators want OUT, NOW. This price escalation has legs. We’ll see 10 million bucks or more for a similar swamp in the next couple of years. The real value is in the postal address.

#83 rawdiswar on 02.26.16 at 8:09 pm

I briefly dated a girl from White Rock, well Surrey actually.

Later found out that she was the village bicycle. Didn’t end well.

Young people are leaving the West Coast in droves. Too broke. The yoga economy has reached saturation.

Pink shirts are the new red shirts.

#84 acdel on 02.26.16 at 8:11 pm

The more I read here the happier I am not to call Vancouver home. And it isn’t because of the Asian folks living there. — Garth

————————————————————
Garth it is not about the Asian’s; personally I have many great friends who are Asian’s and have educated me on what is really happening with RE, don’t you get it, it is not about them, it’s about the system!

#85 DON on 02.26.16 at 8:14 pm

9 valleyrenter on 02.26.16 at 6:36 pm
Upon reading the full spot about above mentioned property, the realtor in the piece had said he had 5 offers from locals.
************************

Can we actually believe a realtor to reveal the true story?

#86 Ret on 02.26.16 at 8:14 pm

Not really loving all of the Vicky Wang innuendo. As a Blog Dog I feel that I should be apologizing to her in some way. She deserves none of these insinuations.

Posting her business card in the daily read was fair. Some of the comments were not.

#87 TRT on 02.26.16 at 8:30 pm

Here is the UN-Politically correct truth of whats going on in Vancouver:

Immigrant Investor program has been replaced by the Foreign Student Program PLUS 10 year Visitor Visa PLUS Supervisa.

Couple this with the fact that many private schools have been licensed by the BC government as visa mills.

Result is foreign students using foreign money to flood the market since all these people are hoping for eventual PR. They buy at the high end (maybe 10-20% of total sales).

This has 2 effects:

A) Trickle down effect where millions are dropped in ground zero and the ripple effect of the money emanates outwards.

B) The locals are going into a frenzy knowing that HAM is now real. This has opened the floodgates with respect to knowledge that the BC government wants 1 million more people in Vancouver.

Result:

Brain Drain. No head offices will locate here. Companies can’t start talent. New companies better to start somewhere else. The suckers will be the salaried who pay taxes and live there.

To the young: Emigrate to the USA via the TN VISA. Leave the Boomers and recent immigrants here.

#88 nonplused on 02.26.16 at 8:33 pm

Well I just got my appraisal from the county. My house has dropped so much in value that just that alone means I would have been better off renting the whole time (4 years). And that is without mortgage interest. I expected a bit of this, following Garth for a long time, but not so much so fast.

#89 Nemesis on 02.26.16 at 8:34 pm

“Besides, we all want the Kits guy to get smoked. Am I right?” – HonGT

#EXT. 4TH AVENUE – MORNING…

https://youtu.be/CWxgfTMLtc0

#BonusSmoked… #Withnail&Marwood… #EnjoyDanny’sLegendary… #CamberwellKitsilanoKarrot…

https://youtu.be/PObknmaH9po?t=1m20s

#UpInSmoke?…

“Canadian corporations operating abroad are more arrogant than the French and their insecurities cloud their judgement to a degree that often leads to their demise.” – PathControlMonk

#SayItIsn’tSo…

[SpaceRef] – MDA Acquires Space Systems Loral in Blockbuster Deal

…”In what can only be described as a blockbuster deal, MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates Ltd (MDA) announced late today that it has acquired a larger company in Space Systems/Loral (SS/L). The announcement comes a day before the MDA’s scheduled investor call and a day after they had announced a significant deal to provide the communications payload for the AMOS-6 Satellite. MDA will acquire 100% of of SS/L in a deal valued at US$875 million.”…

http://spaceref.ca/commercial-space/mda/mda-acquires-space-systems-loral-in-blockbuster-deal.html

#90 Rexx Rock on 02.26.16 at 8:35 pm

Its all good.Higher property taxes for government,higher mortgages for banks and bigger retirement dreams for homeowners.Can’t ask for anything more.Thats why Vancouverites are always smiling and cheerful.

#91 betamax on 02.26.16 at 8:38 pm

#34 tundra pete: “because the lrt is going to Coquitlam Centre, that they are waiting for the prices to go up.”

The Skytrain price boost has been baked in for some time now. I doubt prices will go up much on the Skytrain’s account when it comes online in August.

Then again, who knows? They could be right.

#92 For those about to flop... on 02.26.16 at 8:40 pm

My life is great at the moment ,I drive past a 1.5 million piece of crap for sale in east Van on the way to work in White Rock and spend all day trying to fix up a new build so it looks respectable enough to pull 2 million bucks out of some other suckers pocket.
Come on spring break….I need you more than you need me.

M41BC

#93 IHCTD9 on 02.26.16 at 8:43 pm

Absolutely crazy what’s going on in BC. I haven’t hung my hat on the cause just yet, but right now speculation is in first place. Move up locals cashing out and repurchasing for another flip, HAM directly to some degree, and Asian money flowing through Canadian family and representatives to a much greater degree – but I see just about all of it as greed.

Imagine the idea that you could make a cool million in a year flipping a house, and you had the ability to get the financing. Then add in the fact your neighbour did it, your brother in law did it, a guy at work did too. Everyone slapping themselves on the back in the brand new millionaires club. They’re going in for more, and you learn the BIL and the guy from work just scored another sale and 900k. They’re all just regular working dudes just like you, turning into 1%ers right before your eyes. They say there will never be another money making opportunity like this in their life time. Your neighbour just sold again too, 500k over asking…

Feel the pressure?

#94 New citizenship rules on 02.26.16 at 8:44 pm

They are perfect tailored for safe haven absentee dual citizens.

Which is fine, as long the money flows in.

Waiting for the offer to buy some straggling Canadian province by ultra rich Chinese company, owned by former Communists party leaders, turned successful business men.

#95 hope & ruin on 02.26.16 at 8:51 pm

Going back to yesterdays post on Trump:

Has anybody seen the ted talk on “how to make a movement”?
(link: https://www.ted.com/talks/derek_sivers_how_to_start_a_movement?language=en#t-5552)

Now read this article on chris christie endorsing trump.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-35674192f

I wonder. I would say stranger things have happened but I’m not sure they have.

#96 Kilt on 02.26.16 at 8:54 pm

It’s not the kits ones that will get smoked but the ones buying fixer uppers in Maple Ridge for 600k.
Kilt

#97 Nemesis on 02.26.16 at 8:54 pm

“There were 42,326 property trades in YVR last year. Of those, an estimated 95% were made by locals.” — HonGarth

#Well… #There’sLocals…. #AndThere’sYerYokels… #It’sANuanceThang,Or… #SomeWhereOnCypress…

https://youtu.be/SwuQlBo0VL4

#98 Left behind on 02.26.16 at 8:56 pm

We are still behind New York City:

Located in Manhattan’s Kips Bay neighborhood, Carmel Place is the first micro-apartment development in New York City. Its 55 units range between 265 and 360 square feet, and market-rate units cost between $2,650 and $3,150 a month.

http://www.businessinsider.com/nyc-micro-apartment-carmel-place-2016-2

#99 pinstripe on 02.26.16 at 9:00 pm

There is some good news, hearing that Kevin Oleary is planning to be the Canadian version of Trump.

The policy makers have lost all trust and confidence in their policies.

Tax is a Big Destroyer of Wealth.

Enough is ENOUGH.

#100 Trev petrow on 02.26.16 at 9:00 pm

I’ve been skeptical about vancouvers hot market for a few years now. Visited Vancouver yesterday for a funeral. There does indeed seem to be a visually high percentage of mobile wealth on display. In 24 hours I actually counted 9 bentleys all driven by persons of Asian lineage. This was just ones that drove past as I traversed various roads from Surrey to Richmond to west van into downtown. I’m a car guy so I notice things like that. I also noticed at least 12 late model s-class Mercedes sedan driven by same demographic. Total Km’s I drove was 160.
Anyways met up with 2 old friends for a beer and dinner in the area redeveloped for the winter games..very lively and lots of money being spent for a Thursday eve I thought. Tried to present the logic of asset bubble, low interest period, cycles and history, past eras in Vancouver, and money laundering via large asset purchases in friendly countries outside of China…etc …almost ended in hostility….Both are property owners who are convinced there is no other geographically constrained place to be in the world. They believe the pace of increase in property value in the core “pockets” is normal and will continue. They seem to not be sad for the influx of foreign money that pushes prices higher. They collectively are relishing in the paper gain.
What I could take away is that they collectively believe and absolutely no argument that I could present…would even cast a moment of doubt. In fact…I was offered a chance to “get in” on a hot new property development in the next miracle hotspot “Squamish” which is destined to be where the disillusioned recent inland migrants to the lesser desirable but more affordable regions of the lower mainland, discover the quality of life that they are missing. One of the fellows explicitly said his house is his retirement plan. There is no vision beyond real estate…period. I jokingly replied that I’m not into the worlds largest pyramid scheme. I did get one consolation…that the upward trend didn’t really apply to condos.

#101 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 02.26.16 at 9:07 pm

Sure, how many of those “locals” bought their way into the country through the giveaway immigrant investor program?And how have they contributed to the economy and communities?

unless these supposed foreign buyers are trading YVR homes amoung themselves the proceeds are going to Canadians

#102 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 02.26.16 at 9:11 pm

RE is lent against based on its valuation, not based on incomes or anything like that.

I dunno about that

#103 For those about to flop... on 02.26.16 at 9:16 pm

I think the ” I don’t have a million ” chic went too hard too early in the bubble and should have waited a little ” I don’t have 4 million ” sounds more hard done by…

M41BC

#104 valleyrenter on 02.26.16 at 9:17 pm

#83 DON on 02.26.16 @ 8:14 pm

I’d be willing to take this realtors’ comments at face value. He seemed to say it was 5 local families from within the area that put in offers. Considering the meme out here in lotusland is Asian invasion, if what he originally stated wasn’t the truth one figures he would be pumping said meme.

#105 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.26.16 at 9:27 pm

As I said, realtors will say anything to make sales and to convince others that they had better buy now.

2015 was so predictable – all kinds of hype from realtors and the local media saying that the local housing market was red hot. And then it turns out that SFH sales were below Victoria’s long term average for the year.

Of course I was following those numbers and said that would be the case.

2007 was an average year for Victoria in terms of SFH sales. 2015’s total was lower than that.

What’s more important to not is that 5 year fixed mortgage rates in 2007 were approximately twice as high as in 2015. Obviously this means that we should have seen a lot more (twice as many?) SFH sales in 2015 than in 2007. But the total was lower. That’s not hot.

We must also take into account more population and more houses compared to 2007 – which is another reason that sales should have been higher in 2015.

2010 to 2013 or 2014 – Victoria’s latest housing price decline showed everyone that a lot of caution should be used when considering buying a property in Victoria at any time.

House prices in some Canadian cities increased by 30% or more over the same period of time that Victoria went through a significant price decline.

The price numbers from the realtors frankenumber price index (upward biased) are, at best, misleading and you can be sure that the actual price performance of Victoria’s housing market is much worse than the numbers that the local board publishes.

Victoria’s housing bubble is massive.

In the US housing price decline, the bubbliest states – California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida all saw house prices decline back to pre-bubble levels or lower. Think BC.

Housing markets often turn on a dime and that usually happens when the hype is the greatest. This wasn’t unlike the situation that was present in Victoria in 2010 before house prices began falling and so many families were left with the economic problems associated with negative equity.

Those buying niw will regret their decisions on the future.

#106 Scully on 02.26.16 at 9:29 pm

White Rock summer 1980 – sand castle contest turned into a huge biker fest- people drinking vodka out of a watermelons…weed smoke thick in the air and crazy mostly naked people everywhere…loud rock and roll, louder motorcycles…total mayhem. Did I mention I was ten? My mother would have been horrified had she not joined the party. ;)

#107 Taking Action on 02.26.16 at 9:30 pm

Garth you just made a terrible mistake on this post. You mentioned my market as a hot one.

I just called a known realtor asking for comps in our sector.

If she makes the same mistake suggesting a current high market value then this house is for sale tomorrow.

#108 Bram on 02.26.16 at 9:40 pm

#96 Kilt on 02.26.16 at 8:54 pm
It’s not the kits ones that will get smoked but the ones buying fixer uppers in Maple Ridge for 600k.

If I had to guess, the hardest hit would be the condos.
More specifically, every condo east of Ontario st.

You can always build more apartment buildings.
SF Houses, on the other hand, are a disappearing commodity.

When was the last time the city zoned a brand new RS1 lot? 1952 maybe, when converting farm land?

The old industry zones go straight to multi-family zoning, not RS1.

The RS1 lots that are left are slowly rezoned as RM or commercial.

Bram

#109 Here in Victoria on 02.26.16 at 9:51 pm

“The price numbers from the realtors frankenumber price index (upward biased) are, at best, misleading and you can be sure that the actual price performance of Victoria’s housing market is much worse than the numbers that the local board publishes.

Victoria’s housing bubble is massive.”

Actual price performance…is much worse but, but the housing bubble is massive. Well which one is it then, decline or bubble? I read some odd things here sometimes and sometimes I read some that are ??? People need to get out and about a bit more.

#110 Ignorance Is Bliss on 02.26.16 at 9:57 pm

#87 TRT

That’s quite interesting about the TN VISA. Wasn’t aware of that before. Definitely a great option for professionals who might want to jump ship and head to the U.S. For those interested in reading about this, here’s a link:
https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/employment/nafta.html

#111 GenX on 02.26.16 at 10:01 pm

Who is the Kits guy?

#112 Bottoms_Up on 02.26.16 at 10:09 pm

#84 acdel on 02.26.16 at 8:11 pm
————————————–
Let’s not forget the ‘racist’ seller, ‘no asians’ please:
https://youtu.be/0YM9Ereg2Zo

#113 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 02.26.16 at 10:09 pm

# 7 Suede
Stay away from the “war” industries. The establishment is against Trump because he is anti military-industrial complex
He is on record as saying he would be out of Syria. He is on record as saying that Iraq was a Yuge mistake if not criminal. He would not propagate a cold war with Russia. Indeed, he might actually befriend Putin. He is on record saying he would pressure China to deal with North Korea and the US has no interest there. The war machine will be funding Clinton and Rubio in equal measure. They can be bought.

#114 Cici on 02.26.16 at 10:11 pm

I bet a realtor “bought” this 4-million-dollar shack (but hasn’t paid for it yet).

Future buyers beware, because you’ll be picking up the tab.

#115 fleabitten monkey on 02.26.16 at 10:20 pm

#68 Burt

Burt you nailed it. Buyers show up as local, doesn’t mean the money is.

Garth, you never comment on this reality.

#116 The New Guy on 02.26.16 at 10:21 pm

For those who think locals have nothing to do with this, you are absolutely wrong. I know of so many co-workers who are stressing their finances like lunatics to get into the single-family home market. A lot of them are house-rich but have absolutely no purchasing power to live their lives.

#117 Ronaldo on 02.26.16 at 10:32 pm

#24 Burt on 02.26.16 at 6:04 pm

”I would be curious if someone who thinks that YVR is local money, could explain how a 33ft lot with a 100 year old home comes to be 4 million dollars?”

IMO if anything needs to be investigated, this is one of them. 1.6 million over assessed is totally mind boggling. Does this now mean that every other house in the area has just increased by this amount?

They could have got this one for $6.5 million which was assessed at $5.124 million for 2016.

http://www.mikerampf.com/ActiveListings.php/Details/690/4038-cypress-street-vancouver-bc#viewdetail

Or this one just sold, asking $2.998 million, assessed at $3.156 million. Don’t know what it sold for.

http://www.mikerampf.com/Properties.php/Details/702/5665-mackenzie-street-vancouver-bc#viewdetail

There is definately something very weird going on in the Vancouver housing market.

#118 45north on 02.26.16 at 10:34 pm

In fact 56% of respondents who live in cities volunteered that real estate prices are now “unreasonable,” and measures need to be taken to rein them in.

here they are: So the answer: raise interest rates and tighten lending standards. Paradoxically. These measure will stop the rise in prices and add structural stability which will make the market more attractive to foreign investment.

or you could just wait

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/02/07/its-obscene/#comment-430825

#119 Snowboid on 02.26.16 at 10:35 pm

#48 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.26.16 at 6:44 pm…

Exactly, we know first hand seeing the value of the Victoria home we sold in early 2011 lose value every year from 2011 to 2015. It’s still 10% less than we sold for in early 2011.

We also know many folks in Phoenix, both US and Canadian citizens, who got caught up in the same RE rhetoric being repeated about Vancouver today. Most of them borrowed against their paid-off homes, used their retirement savings and all their investments.

They believed they couldn’t lose, just as we are routinely told about BC.

Some of them survived okay, only losing a few hundred thousand – but others went bankrupt and now rent in our area. No retirement money left, they bag groceries at our local Frys or are Walmart greeters, or in the case of a former golf-pro across the street from us – rents, drives a 20 year old van and works as a part-time groundskeeper. He had a primary home in tony Scottsdale, and bought two more in 2005. He had lost all three by 2011 when we first met him.

BTW, the home we purchased for under $ 130K was valued in 2005 at $ 303K – and is currently valued at about $ 220K US.

********************************************

#66 Here in Victoria on 02.26.16 at 7:24 pm…

Just keep repeating that, but sooner or later you will have to click your heels back to Kansas.

********************************************

#100 Trev petrow on 02.26.16 at 9:00 pm…

One of our sons in Vancouver regularly meets with Asian students at UBC. He finally asked a group why they all have Ferraris, Lambos, Mercs and Bentleys. The answer was they were bought by their parents as investments, when the kids return after graduated with their now ‘used’ supercars, they will sell in China for 2 times or more the original cost.

I assume that the parents expect the same return on other investments over 4 years.

#120 fishman on 02.26.16 at 10:43 pm

Vancouver is called “Hollywood North” not “Los Angeles North”, but Hollywood. You’all know about Hollywood now don’t you? Thats a place where you” put your lips together & blow”. If your a big shot Hollywood Movie Producer & want to make a movie up here, can do. Have to get in line at least 8 months or more depending on how big a name actor you got. There’s 100,000 kids that get up at 4:00, in the afternoon. Maybe another 1/4 million in some kind of post secondary school. We will be plugged with tourists this summer. Try getting a good spot right now. Oops, sorry, all booked. And just like expo 86, their not going to want to leave. The rich Yanks aren’t buying SFH cause their buying moorage up & down the finest coastal waters in the world for their yachts. And these are people with money. I don’t even want to imagine whats going to happen when great masses of poor figure out this is the place to be. California has 35 million & B,C. has 4 & change. Its unstoppable. And above all else an unbelievable supply of the finest fresh potable water in the world. Yes, this year the snowpack in the interior is as good as the big ones in the 80’s. All the reservoirs & lakes will be just plumb full.

#121 acdel on 02.26.16 at 10:46 pm

#112 Bottoms_Up #84 acdel on 02.26.16 at 8:11 pm
————————————–
Let’s not forget the ‘racist’ seller, ‘no asians’ please:
https://youtu.be/0YM9Ereg2Zo

—————————————————-

Not sure where you are going with this; sure there are prejudice people who have their own views; so be it, that is their own prerogative.

My statement mentioned, is about the SYSTEM, not what nationality that takes advantage of it due to our own stupidity, bad laws, and incompetent politicians who may or may not have a few residential properties riding on this wave.

#122 NEVER GIVE UP on 02.26.16 at 10:47 pm

Regarding the dump in Maple Ridge that went up in price over 20% when it did not sell. Here is my take.

BC licence plates should read “BIGGEST SUCKERS ON EARTH.”

As soon as the Provincial Government single handedly pumped up property taxes by 25% by simply telling the suckers that their property was worth 25% more. The Suckers lapped it up like Pussy Cats.

More than happy to pay way more taxes so the munis can spend like drunken sailors on pet projects and have their names immortalized on a bronze plaque of some swimming pool or community center!

I notice the week after there were almost no acreages under $1,000,000 listed. All went up about $200k after the bogus property assesment.

Now every one is drunk with mythical money!

When the music stops there will be no chairs left for half of the players.

#123 NEVER GIVE UP on 02.26.16 at 10:52 pm

The biggest concern for the BC Christie Clark Government was to not have any of the windfall homeowners lose any equity in their homes!

To hell with young people trying to get into the market!

It’s like saying “We’re already in the lifeboat, To hell with you guys in the water!”

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/value-of-premier-s-home-up-160k-as-housing-affordability-woes-deepen-1.2726890

#124 NEVER GIVE UP on 02.26.16 at 11:03 pm

#6 gut check on 02.26.16 at 5:30 pm

#2 MEANWHILE IN FRANCE on 02.26.16 at 5:22 pm
White Rock. Nice little place. A bit stuck in the 1980’s maybe?
More Fish & Chips shops there than in Brighton, UK.
*******************
the 80s!? Fish & Chips?!!
this sounds like another heaven about to be turned into a shitpile.
how soon till a RioCan center pops up with all the usual suspects?

I miss diversity.
—————————————————————
Do you remember Corner Drug Stores? They sold interesting things and were not afraid to change their merchandise because travelling sales reps would blow into town with new things all the time.

Now we have the most boring retail behemoths on earth. Shoppers, Rexall, ETC. They bought up all the good independents and turned them into sterilized halls of boredom.

Thats what happens when all the government rulings and tax laws favor big business. They kill all small business because the Government is hostile to small business.

A big chain like Shoppers or Dollarama can sell fancy looking paper on the stock market in an IPO and get free money just for telling someone they own part of the business.

Then they open 10,000 sq. ft. stores near all the small operators and kill them all within 2 years.

When a Mom and Pop operator want to borrow to improve their business they are told to use their 29% interest credit card.

Then the moms and pops who lost their livelihood can become “tenant farmers” by getting cashier jobs at the same place that killed their business!

#125 WallOfWorry on 02.26.16 at 11:05 pm

This is all confusing. Earlier this week you posted about how we have seen the real estate market top and evidence shows that there is a decline. Now you are posting about specific instances where the market is more frothy than ever? Which is it Garth? Or maybe you need to re-take that stats course and understand outliers? Or, maybe plug into reality and see that there are more interesting things going on in the business world globally? ho hum…..

There is not one national housing market. Every city and region is unique. In Toronto the average detached home price is lower than it was last Spring. In Vancouver house lust is hotter than ever. Both markets have a high degree of risk, with VYR the most at peril. A majority of other markets are stagnant or entering a decline. Try to pay greater attention to the wider world. — Garth

#126 Ronaldo on 02.26.16 at 11:10 pm

#104 valleyrenter on 02.26.16 at 9:17 pm
#83 DON on 02.26.16 @ 8:14 pm

”I’d be willing to take this realtors’ comments at face value. He seemed to say it was 5 local families from within the area that put in offers.”

As I stated previously, this is one that would be ripe for investigation.

#127 Ronaldo on 02.26.16 at 11:18 pm

#114 Cici on 02.26.16 at 10:11 pm

”I bet a realtor “bought” this 4-million-dollar shack (but hasn’t paid for it yet).”

Or ”several” realtors who own several homes in the area.

#128 Me on 02.26.16 at 11:22 pm

“There were 42,326 property trades in YVR last year. Of those, an estimated 95% were made by locals. — Garth”

Garth, sometimes I agree with you and sometimes I don’t, but you loose all credibility with these preposterous comments. Absolutely ridiculous. My wife and I have been searching for a clean home to rent for months. We’ve viewed perhaps 35-40 homes. Perhaps 2 had owners who were living here. I wonder where all these local buyers are?

#129 Smoking Man on 02.26.16 at 11:39 pm

Don’t know if I sould take Linday Grahams plajurizing of my phrase “bat shit crazy” as an insult or complement.

I once tweed him you and McCain are “bat shit crazy”

Now you know where he got it from.

#130 Puzni on 02.26.16 at 11:40 pm

Can anyone explain the ” Personal Real Estate Corporation ” on real estates deals ?

I live in west end vancouver and today I walked on davie and Bute where my favourite Safeway store will be turned into two new high rises. I think prices are nuts but after being here for more than 2 decades I’m starting to feel ” buy now or be priced out forever” – YVR is the next New York !

#131 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.26.16 at 11:41 pm

# 109 Here in Victoria

You really don’t like losing.

That Victoria’s housing market went through a significant price correction from 2010 to 2013-14, it wasn’t enough of a price decline to bring fundamentals such as the price to income ratio and price to rent ratio back in line with historical averages. Far from it actually.

Victoria’s housing bubble still exists and it’s massive as I said.

We would have a better idea as to the performance of Victoria’s housing market since early 2014 if the local board hadn’t stopped publishing the reliable SFH median price data for individual areas of Greater Victoria at the end of 2013.

They simply want to control what buyers and sellers think and removing that important data was part of what they thought they needed to do to keep the public ignorant.

The beginning of 2014 was, of course, when the local board brought in their frankenumber price “index”.

No matter what any real estate board or government does to try to keep a housing bubble inflated, the same result is always realized – a deep, multi-year price correction that negatively impacts the household finances of a big chunk of mortgage holders.

There’s simply no example of a country with a major housing bubble that was able to get around this inevitable outcome.

#132 jay on 02.26.16 at 11:48 pm

Chinese police on the ground in Vancouver looking for laundered money .Yeah, everybody is lying about foreign laundered money in Vancouver .Wake up.

#133 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.26.16 at 11:49 pm

# 119 Snowbird

Nice of you to chime in with that information. I’m sure the weather is nice in Phoenix.

#134 jenn on 02.26.16 at 11:57 pm

I’m about to throw in the towel for my townhouse search in suburban YVR .. all the asking prices are just a base to start the bidding wars. Anything halfway decent has multiple offers and sells over asking price. Missed out on three townhouses now, all sold over asking price, sometimes $40K+ over asking. For a townhouse, in the suburbs. There’s no inventory. Friends and colleagues say they’d love to sell to take advantage of the high prices but then where would they go?

#135 Vanreal on 02.27.16 at 12:18 am

First of all Garth you need to visit Vancouver more often. Kits is full of rich people. A million in the city for a sfh is now a steal, but it’s only sfh that is seeing significant increases. Condos aren’t going up much at all. This makes sense. In another 10 years there won’t be many single family homes left inside city limits. As for Maple Ridge and White Rock, I don’t know much about either area but I’m very surprised to hear that distant outposts are increasing much in price. Everybody wants the city, north shore or Richmond. East van houses are being sold for lot value (over 1.2 million) and then being razed and new builds going up. It’s unbelievable. If a house is on the market for more than a week, there must be something wrong.

#136 CMHC insider on 02.27.16 at 12:34 am

CMHC is completely out of the SF Detached market in metro Vancouver.

Zero (read that again)…zero detached homes got insured mortgages in January. Those homes less than $1 Million had at least 20% down.

Get a FOI request if you want to verify the stats available to me. This is not a local money driven phenomenon.

#137 CMHC insider on 02.27.16 at 12:35 am

CMHC refuses to release this info.

Wonder why.

#138 Slow Canada on 02.27.16 at 12:40 am

“Hopped up on Starbucks and mold …”

You are a classic, Garth.

#139 steerage steward on 02.27.16 at 12:45 am

Enjoy these on the ground reports.

Live in YVR, and one of my co-workers in his 20s mentioned he has been trying to buy a place for six months in suburbs. Every time he finds a place and makes an offer a bidding war starts. Of the seven places he was looking at every one sold for a least 75k over asking. Maple Ridge, Surrey, Burnaby.

Asked him to read my copy of When the Bubble Bursts while sitting out the latest bidding war. Two weeks later after reading the book he thanked me and decided this may not be the best time to buy. He is a smart guy, just was not aware of the history/issues with the current bubble.

Always interesting how poorly informed people are about the biggest financial decision of their lives.

#140 Brian on 02.27.16 at 12:46 am

So if 5% of buyers are ham that are buying and likley holding,, then what does that do to available inventory after 10, 15, or 20 years?

#141 Scully on 02.27.16 at 12:48 am

Wow, just wow. I have never heard such bubble talk since the dot.com era. #120 – fishman – Hollywood? Really? I guess the celebrities, producers and all the Asians are desperately bidding on houses here and driving up the market. Mostly for our drinking water. Good grief. It’s speculation and the rest of you feeling “the train’s leaving the station without you.” It’s crazy out there. Not rational. The bank is only too happy to accommodate your future leverage to move you up to the home you deserve. It’s a great time to cash out and rent but most refuse to do that. Ask yourself why…

#142 AisA on 02.27.16 at 1:35 am

Dudes and Dudettes, when this market goes, it’s gone.
When a rubber band is stretched too far it has two choices, snap and become utterly worthless, or whip back so hard and fast that the stretcher of said band needs a shiny new glass eye. Ponder that. Valuations (loosely used term) are so extreme that a new purchaser, in the best case scenario, would have a home become worthless to them over time. In the worst case scenario the memory of the purchase would haunt them to their grave. Put the rubber bands down and walk away quickly.

#143 ozy -wanna bet? on 02.27.16 at 1:52 am

wanna bet? RE will grow another 30% this year? in top of the 20% it just did….?? :) :)

#144 Left Coast Guy on 02.27.16 at 2:16 am

Vancouver is the epicentre of the wealth migration from China. Many supposedly “local” buyers of multi-million dollar homes in Vancouver are getting their money from China. With all due respect, Garth, if you don’t see that, you’re delusional. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/02/22/chinas-rich-kids-head-west

#145 willworkforpickles on 02.27.16 at 2:30 am

The ponzi scheme in Vancouver real estate is still alive for now. You buy you sell then repeat. Only the suckers who buy and hold aren’t aware that it is a ponzi playing out there.
The players gamble with the end arriving suddenly and getting caught holding their most recent purchase when the bottom drops out.
The players of this scheme count on driving the prices up and they do….the gullible suckers being drawn in haven’t a clue.

#146 West Coast on 02.27.16 at 3:28 am

Well our dollar aint what it used to be…. so I guess if you’re buying in with ‘foreign’ money …it’s just the same old same old….my neighbours sold their penthouse 3 months ago for 1,500,000 and the identical suite next door is now listed for 2,000,000….go figure…and this in a 25+ year old building recently ‘rainscreened’….(speaking of mould)……..the current Vancouver property scene is a mad house………we’ll let you all know if anything changes!

#147 http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/02/26/are-we-there-yet-2/ on 02.27.16 at 4:00 am

Remember parties then just before crash with people making a lot less money than me taking on mortgages at 14% or more, talking about flipping homes, buying multiple properties and renting them out…all on borrowed money, skating on thin ice each month to make it work and then overnight

the lights went out and the market crashed fast…no sticky prices as some think

40% in 1.5 years drop…many charts online to show this.

Same in YVR and later in 416.

Blog today a carbon copy about pre-crash euphoria from 35 years ago.

It will come soon as Cdn. economy is tanking. That 35 year ago crash was about oil industry crashing and a slow world economy…sound familiar?

#148 data on 02.27.16 at 7:02 am

#JSS

You nailed it. Your comment makes sense, however this what people think with only looking at the data….those parabolic graphs of home prices shooting up…be patient, it will fall apart, but understand what you are up against…remember even after the largest housing crash in history, prices are back up globally, in some cases beyond the crazy 2006 highs….we just didn’t dip (we have no margin call bonds for loans in Canada, so it couldn’t happen by definition, impossible to get “The big short in Canada)

The lust, as outlined by Garth many times, is what we fail to understand. Why on earth are masses of people putting students in basements, becoming non-taxing paying landlords, locking into large carry fee’s, lack of mobility, etc for to say ” I own” ? (no difference in paying mortgage to the bank or rent to landlord, in both cases you own nothing)

The human lifestyle ego can never be assumed rational. Water is the best example we have, it’s piped into your house for free, however people get up, burn petrol, carry heavy plastic environment destroying bottles back home, store, chill to get the exact same thing???? When people make lifestyle choices, NEVER challenge them! This is something structural (paying 5$ at starbucks is NORMAL now, but it wasn’t at first) and takes decades for people to look back and realize how foolish they were….A daily blog by any standards by Garth is very good and it takes courage…don’t expect homes to behave like stock markets…

If someone came to you and said they are willing to sleep on a park bench to pay for own child medical needs, you would not think twice. People are using the same type of mindset to buy homes…it’s a shame and the true consequences of this won’t be seen for 25 years from now….

The battle between gravity and stupidity of prices can last a very very long time…be patient JSS

#149 For those about to flop... on 02.27.16 at 9:35 am

#129 Smoking Man on 02.26.16 at 11:39 pm
Don’t know if I sould take Linday Grahams plajurizing of my phrase “bat shit crazy” as an insult or complement.

I once tweed him you and McCain are “bat shit crazy”

Now you know where he got it from.

//////////////////////////////////////
Are you serious ?
No wonder I call you Joking Man,that saying was around when I was a kid in Australia.
I’m not sure but I don’t remember having a Twitter account as I waited for my turn to try and beat my brothers score on Atari Asteroids in the late 70s ,early 80s.
If I tweet the saying “crazy as a coconut “does that mean I get to claim that one too?
Your probably the first person that Lindsey Graham gets to make fun of ,instead of the other way around…

M41BC

#150 DM on 02.27.16 at 10:00 am

Bubbles are bubbles:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-26/peak-stupidity-where-we-go-here

#151 jess on 02.27.16 at 10:20 am

would the Donald repeal the “domestic manufacturing deduction”

Seriously, How Does OpenTable Get the Manufacturing Tax Break?
April 26, 2013 12:31 PM
By Citizens for Tax Justice Staff | Permalink | Bookmark and Share

When Congressional tax writers signaled their intention to enact a new tax break for domestic manufacturing income in 2004, lobbyists began a feeding frenzy to define both “domestic” and “manufacturing” as expansively as possible. As a result, current beneficiaries of the tax break include mining and oil, coffee roasting (a special favor to Starbucks, which lobbied heavily for inclusion) and even Hollywood film production. The Walt Disney corporation has disclosed receiving $526 million in tax breaks from this provision over the past three years, presumably from its film production work, and even World Wrestling Entertainment has disclosed receiving tax breaks for its “domestic manufacturing” of wrestling-related films.

But CTJ has now discovered, after poring over corporate financial reports, an example that may trump them all.

Silicon Valley-based OpenTable, Inc. provides online restaurant reservations and reviews for restaurants in all fifty states and around the world, connecting customers and restaurants via the Internet and mobile apps. While members of Congress may enjoy how OpenTable can “manufacture” a last minute seating at their favorite Beltway watering hole, it’s hard to believe the company engages in any activity that most Americans would think of as manufacturing.

And yet OpenTable discloses in its SEC filing that the domestic manufacturing tax break reduced the company’s effective corporate income tax rate substantially recently, saving it about $3 million over the last three years. Even as a small portion of the company’s overall tax bill, that $3 million is emblematic of the scores of absurd loopholes carved out of the corporate tax code.

http://www.taxjusticeblog.org/archive/2013/04/seriously_how_does_opentable_g.php#.VpXe57YrKUM

#152 max on 02.27.16 at 10:21 am

I lived in Phoenix back in the 1990’s. Liberals came into power, no assets in Canada, U.S. is a tax treaty country very easy for an visitor to stay out of U.S. tax system. Real estate was super cheap there. Rev Can changed the rules, but with Canadian assets, you could pay no income tax at all. Hence there was lot of Canadians down there.

I asked a real estate developer, why so cheap. We are surrounded by vacant land. Supply always catches up with demand.

China is in crisis. Hong Kong real estate was down 80% last month. The herd is fearing a Chinese tightening, tanks in Hong Kong kind of thing. They don’t want to be in CDN cash, the only thing alive in Vancouver is real estate. The herd follows the big money. Add in real estate agents shadow flipping, etc. It a recipe for what we are seeing now. There is a lot of land in the lower mainland, supply will catch up with demand. What killed the Phoenix market back in the 90’s was the Asian financial crisis and the Japanese pulled out of the market. The house my parents bought took almost 30 years to climb over $1million from $380k. That was a nice a house, almost 7k sqft, guest house and 5 bedroom on 2acres, pool, tennis court in the best neighborhood Paradise Valley.

The Chinese money will dry up, when things stabilize, not much demand for $2million dollar tear downs once the dumb foreign money is out of the market. A guy in my neighborhood is a real estate developer. He said the same thing, there is a lot of vacant land around the lower mainland.

Real estate is not a sales game. Its a listing game. You need to promote the market to sell and to sell lots of real estate, you need lots of listings. You build up listings and let the others agents who thinks its a sales game sell them! To get listings agents send notes to the old owners telling them how much more their house is worth from the last time they sold it. They make sure the new owners read it. They’ll do anything for listings. I believe the demand is a lot lower then the real estate and their association are saying. I believe we are headed in a big Phoenix like crash. 30 to 40 years to recover.

That will be fine for the newest generation. It will be epic failure for gen X, who are closer to 40 now and ever closer to retiring.

#153 max on 02.27.16 at 10:23 am

meant no Canadian assets you could pay no income tax at all back in the 1990’s.

#154 Penny Henny on 02.27.16 at 10:43 am

Real estate cannot continue to rise when the average family can’t afford the average home.-GT

Maybe the new average home is an apartment or a condo.

Note to Jerry. You snooze you lose.

#155 Penny Henny on 02.27.16 at 10:46 am

DELETED

#156 Bdwy sktn on 02.27.16 at 10:52 am

. It’s a great time to cash out and rent but most refuse to do that.
,……………
Also said in 2014, 2013, and every year since ..2008. We r up almost a mil since then

The difference this time is the rentals are gone. Nothing to rent. See above comments. Airbnb is there for 100/ night

#157 Smartassed Star Stuff on 02.27.16 at 10:54 am

#149 For those about to flop… on 02.27.16 at 9:35 am

#129 Smoking Man on 02.26.16 at 11:39 pm
Don’t know if I sould take Linday Grahams plajurizing of my phrase “bat shit crazy” as an insult or complement.

I once tweed him you and McCain are “bat shit crazy”

Now you know where he got it from.

//////////////////////////////////////
Are you serious ?
No wonder I call you Joking Man,that saying was around when I was a kid in Australia.
I’m not sure but I don’t remember having a Twitter account as I waited for my turn to try and beat my brothers score on Atari Asteroids in the late 70s ,early 80s.
If I tweet the saying “crazy as a coconut “does that mean I get to claim that one too?
Your probably the first person that Lindsey Graham gets to make fun of ,instead of the other way around…

M41BC


You forgot he’s a quantum physicist and heart surgeon in his spare time from drinking… so adding on a political speech writer gig is rather easy… he is after all a fiction writer extraordinaire

#158 Bram on 02.27.16 at 10:57 am

#122 NEVER GIVE UP on 02.26.16 at 10:47 pm

That is not how property tax works.
If assessments go up, the tax rate goes down.
The revenue stays the same.
It is mainly the province that gets rich on the transfer tax from sale.

#159 Penny Henny on 02.27.16 at 11:01 am

Five offers were from local bidders. — Garth

Yes and of those 5 , 4 were housewives with no reported income.

Why do you folks so stereotype, generalize and defame others? Jealousy and resentment, I guess. — Garth

#160 James on 02.27.16 at 11:06 am

First of all why would anyone want to live in Vancouver? It’s one of the worlds dullest cities. The real estate market will collapse when China imposes capital controls, but until then it will morph into a ghost town. Young people will simply leave. The main business will be money laundering and drug dealing.

#161 Rainclouds on 02.27.16 at 11:06 am

Buddy listed and sold his 100 Yr Old east side house in 3 days. Gonna rent.(Already found a place, new, bigger.)

Bidding war, obtained 10% over asking. 5 interested parties. According to his house salesman, no HAM…….WTF?

#162 Bdwy sktn on 02.27.16 at 11:09 am

Vancouver area land prices,

West side prime 300,000,000/AC
White Rock. ALR 100,000/AC
White Rock non alr 1 to 2,000,000/AC

5 min from white Rock in usa 8,000/AC (no alr)

Guess which one we are buying more of

#163 Smoking Man on 02.27.16 at 11:16 am

#149 For those about to flop… on 02.27.16 at 9:35 am
#129 Smoking Man on 02.26.16 at 11:39 pm
Don’t know if I sould take Linday Grahams plajurizing of my phrase “bat shit crazy” as an insult or complement.

I once tweed him you and McCain are “bat shit crazy”

Now you know where he got it from.

//////////////////////////////////////
Are you serious ?
No wonder I call you Joking Man,that saying was around when I was a kid in Australia.
I’m not sure but I don’t remember having a Twitter account as I waited for my turn to try and beat my brothers score on Atari Asteroids in the late 70s ,early 80s.
If I tweet the saying “crazy as a coconut “does that mean I get to claim that one too?
Your probably the first person that Lindsey Graham gets to make fun of ,instead of the other way around…

M41BC
…..

Do I even remotely look like someone who gives a flying f what anyone thinks of me.

McCain and Graham are peices of crud. Responsible for thousands of American deaths in rediculos wars that have basically screwed up the world. They are Isreal first America second. And because of their stupidity Isreal is a hell of a lot more Un safe.

Go Trump.

Even he’s copied my style. Miss spelling easy words.

#164 For those about to flop... on 02.27.16 at 11:35 am

#163 Smoking Man on 02.27.16 at 11:16 am
#149 For those about to flop… on 02.27.16 at 9:35 am
#129 Smoking Man on 02.26.16 at 11:39 pm
Don’t know if I sould take Linday Grahams plajurizing of my phrase “bat shit crazy” as an insult or complement.

I once tweed him you and McCain are “bat shit crazy”

Now you know where he got it from.

//////////////////////////////////////
Are you serious ?
No wonder I call you Joking Man,that saying was around when I was a kid in Australia.
I’m not sure but I don’t remember having a Twitter account as I waited for my turn to try and beat my brothers score on Atari Asteroids in the late 70s ,early 80s.
If I tweet the saying “crazy as a coconut “does that mean I get to claim that one too?
Your probably the first person that Lindsey Graham gets to make fun of ,instead of the other way around…

M41BC
…..

Do I even remotely look like someone who gives a flying f what anyone thinks of me.

McCain and Graham are peices of crud. Responsible for thousands of American deaths in rediculos wars that have basically screwed up the world. They are Isreal first America second. And because of their stupidity Isreal is a hell of a lot more Un safe.

Go Trump.

Even he’s copied my style. Miss spelling easy words.

//////////////////////////////////

I was going to go for a walk in the backwoods today,but I am afraid that your ego is going to trigger an avalanche…

M41BC

#165 MF on 02.27.16 at 11:40 am

#163 Smoking Man on 02.27.16 at 11:16 am

Serious question but Why would trump be anti Israel?

Tons of Jewish business interests in the US. Why would Trump be against business? He’s a business man.

MF

#166 Westsider on 02.27.16 at 11:45 am

I have lived on the westside of Vancouver for over 40 years, in Kits, Kerrisdale, Dunbar and now Pt. Grey. I lived through the Hong Kong Exodus in the late 80s, but I have never seen so may houses for sale and so many sold signs, and so many houses in the process of being torn down.It’s truly amazing.Not sure where were going but it is insane.

#167 bdy sktn on 02.27.16 at 12:18 pm

Buddy listed and sold his 100 Yr Old east side house in 3 days. ..According to his house salesman, no HAM…….WTF?
…..

East side never hammy. At least not yet.
It’s where the docs and high earners who still want to be in the city go now.

#168 White Rock on 02.27.16 at 12:19 pm

Like every market, it will keep going until it doesn’t. A housing correction is inevitable, just depends on how much and when. The top 5 percent of sales is dragging the remaining 95 percent up, totally unsustainable but like all bubbles it will end. People in YVR will regret they didn’t sell today and cash in. Price fatigue will set in by the summer. Good luck taking your premium after that!

#169 Smoking Man on 02.27.16 at 12:22 pm

My post from Dec 7th

Back then no one thought he had a chance except for Dr Smoking Man

….

#58 Smoking Man on 12.07.15 at 7:56 pm
Trumps people must be creeping my posts.

Today he says ban every Muslim from entering the USA.
You know every msm outlet will be attacking him severely. And they should, out right rasisum.

But the result from pissed off American middle class looking to vent on anything will propel the Donald to the top.

He’s going to be the nominee. Guaranteed.

This is what his people read today.

#201 Smoking Man on 12.07.15 at 11:23 am
Trump soaring in the polls.

MSM on full frontal attack mode. What the machine hasn’t figured out yet.

MSM about as popular as congress is. The more they attack him, the stronger he gets.

Sadly, It takes a dyslexic drunk to figure it out.

#170 zudnic on 02.27.16 at 12:26 pm

Most of the land in the ALR is not farmed. The government is slowly releasing more and more of it. What always happens, is more houses come onto the market and the buyer pool dies out. Sure we have foreign money coming into real estate. But for how long, BC’er’s can’t support this market.

Real agents, don’t sell houses to make money. They sell people on selling their house. Its a listings game, one or two listing in a good market, makes an ok living. You get a commission on your listing, even if you are not the selling agent. The real money as an agent is having a large inventory of listings. Agents have over sold on the listing game. Those thinking they are going to cash in on the real estate boom flipping townhomes and condos are going to get killed first.

My Dad was a stock broker. He always had friends and friends of family coming to him with stock certificates of their dead relatives. Is it worth anything? The answer was always no. Those who invest and hold stock, almost always loose. Now you can buy blue chips and earn interest on your money. But usually after a few years they are worth what you paid or less. Lets ask Warren Buffet about IBM!

The foreign money coming in has no idea of the dynamics of North American real estate. Dumb money over pays on investments, dumb money buys and holds stock. Real estate agents created the demand, not real buyers. Dumb money buys crappy houses way over their true value. People who follow the dumb money always loose!

Dumb people buy $4million crap houses on a lousy lot, when 30 minutes away, you can buy large executive homes on a few acres under $4million all day long.

http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2032738/19838-3-avenue-langley?property_search=366738867

http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2038555/5711-264-street-langley?property_search=366738867

#171 chuck guild on 02.27.16 at 12:58 pm

How about 300 acres and four houses for the price of your 33 foot lot in YVR

http://vinesmart.com/wine/Real_Estate/Wine_Country_Homes/2270_Wine_Country_Luxury_Coastal_Ranch

#172 Dups on 02.27.16 at 1:05 pm

It is funny to hear comments people make when someone buys an extravagant car; drug dealer, show off, etc!. When someone buys a garbage house for millions no one asks how or where did they find the money?
I think the gov is in this with the banks. They are feeding this frenzy on behalf of our ignorance as sheepels that we are… Good for them as we keep allowing them. Formulae still holds tru: wash, rinse, repeat as it always has been since the time of kings and queens.

#173 For those about to flop... on 02.27.16 at 1:15 pm

Well ,the house I told you about the other day at 5540 Windsor st. Is having an open house 2-4 the way things are going around here I am expecting to see a sold sticker this weekend.
Canucks suck
B.C Lions suck
Whitecaps are o.k

Luckily for us locals this real estate mania is the best spectator sport in town…when do the playoffs start?
I can’t afford a ticket ,but I will spy a view from the hole in the fence.Im glad nothing is built properly here…

M41BC

#174 Herf on 02.27.16 at 1:32 pm

The bridge never loses:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsAlzV4qSD8

http://11foot8.com/

https://www.youtube.com/user/yovo68

#175 zudnic on 02.27.16 at 1:43 pm

Just a few short years ago, they closed the local junior high. Why? There wasn’t enough kids coming in to support it. In the 80’s they closed several elementary schools for the same reason. Tsawwassen has very low growth rates. Back in the 80’s, my great aunt bought a condo in Tsawwassen. You see my family lived there, my great grand mother, her mother was in a nursing home there. She had a reason to be there, ties to the area.

There is no reason a entry level family home in Tsawwassen is worth over a million dollars. Plus there is 950 homes in the pipeline. Only an idiot would buy in low growth Tsawwassen. You see once my great grand mother died, we moved. My aunt didn’t want to drive anymore, the walk to grocery shop was too far. She moved to Vancouver. Most retiree’s, don’t want to live out there. Most new families, don’t want the nightmare commute, if they work in Vancouver.

There is an old saying, a rising tide lifts all ships. Tsawwassen and Langley/Cloverdale have been mostly flat for years. More like Victoria, then the rest of the lower mainland. Since prices didn’t start rising until 3 weeks ago. The other saying the last to rise the first to fall. The last time Chinese money flowed into Canada, in the 90’s, it trickled off as thing settled. Tsawwassen rose mid 90’s, fell back down and things went to normal. The difference we didn’t have cheap money back then. The fall back down is going to be really hard, when buyers expecting to make a killing on condos and townhomes discover they are loosing money.

New home construction is very cheap when you build volume. A developer, like the one building 950 homes can afford to slash prices and put new cars in the garage and still make money.

This new demand is a rush to get money out of China, it will not last. If their was a real demand developers would be building like crazy. When there is no demand left, put new cars in the garage, etc. Milk every last drop out of the market.

The problem when foreign buyers suddenly need their wealth back, they dump their foreign assets first. California, Nevada, and Arizona learned this in 91 with the Japanese. Vancouver is only 2 million people, we can’t support this market. Foreign money is gone, its locals and drug dealers laundering money. The crash is going to hurt everyone!

#176 TurnerNation on 02.27.16 at 1:45 pm

Sickening abuse of trust by public transit unionistas below.

And Toronto’s mayor refused to stand in front of the Police Services gold plated salary and benefit gravy train, approving a 1 billion budget line item.

Bend over it’s going to be a brutal few years. Talks of HST hike out East. Public unions will be eating us alive under the watch of anti-capitalist politicians.

Cp24.com:
“Up to 600 TTC workers may have participated in benefits scam: Auditor General

As many as 600 TTC employees may have submitted fraudulent benefit claims as part of a multi-million dollar scam currently being investigated by Toronto police, a report from the city’s Auditor General says.

#177 Nemesis on 02.27.16 at 1:53 pm

#WhoKnew?,Or… #WhatWereTheySmoking?…

“Vancouver does seem to have certain issues that other cities do not seem to have.” – Citizenship Minister John McCallum to the Commons Standing Committee on Citizenship and Immigration

[Tyee] – ‘Everything Is Being Stretched,’ Say Refugee Settlement Agencies: Lower Mainland support workers scramble to find permanent homes for newcomer ‘wave.’

…”Finding long-term lodgings for refugees has now become the biggest challenge for settlement workers in Canada’s most unaffordable region, a number of support agencies say.

Since the beginning of November, nearly 1,500 government assisted Syrian refugees have arrived in British Columbia. By March 1, the province is expected to receive a wave of 690 more.

“That’s Tuesday next week!” exclaimed Chris Friesen, director of settlement services for the Immigration Services Society of B.C. “And these numbers change daily.”

Several months ago, settlement organizations asked the federal government to temporarily pause new arrivals to the Lower Mainland, in order to address the housing backlog.

One of the major housing challenges, Friesen explained, is that refugee families are increasingly large — often between six and 13 members. “How do you find rental accommodation for large family sizes?”

He said the numbers are putting a strain on his organization and others. “Normally we get 900 government-assisted refugees a year,” he said. “Now we’re getting 900 in a month. Everything is being stretched.”…

http://www.thetyee.ca/News/2016/02/26/Canadian-Refugee-Settlement-Agencies/

#178 IKnow on 02.27.16 at 1:56 pm

(Disclaimer: I’m local ethnic Chinese live in Vancouver more than a few decades)

Why Vancouver so expensive?

It has been a perfect storm

China’s producing multi millionaires at high rate.
Some money may be more legitimate than others, but won’t get into that here.

Vancouver and Canada is a favorite destination; Canada is benign, so much fresh air, so many trees, and won’t bicker against China like US.

And of course there’s already great Chinese food!

So HAM makes its way here, most go into real estates.
Park money in bricks and mortar felt safe.
No, HAM likely won’t invest much outside of real estates, so job creation likely is marginal.
Most jobs creation has been and will be real estates related.

Effect on the locals?

Local long-established ethnic Chinese noticed this HAM migration, mostly from China of course.
That ignited the desire to be land barons.
The common ancestral culture caused the local Chinese to believe in the inevitability – land price will become astronomical if more and more rich Chinese stay in YVR.

The reasoning?

Look at how incredibly expensive a tiny flat or condo is in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing.
YVR still looks dirt cheap.
An average single detached house may worth $3M by the East Asian valuation concept.

So…

Local East Indian developers build and sell, maybe the majority of new house buyers in Vancouver, Burnaby and Richmond, even Coquitlam are ethnic Chinese as they likely have the most courage among various ethnic groups to keep bidding up.

Perhaps until one day that magical $3M is reached.

So no more supply.
All tear-downs are bought by East Indian developers.
They outbid local Vancouverites on all properties that need TLC.

So whoever have the courage and/or have won a house lottery have little hesitation on the high value.

A parent bought in Point Grey for $400k 30 years ago may gain over $3M by cashing out.
We’ve seen young people able to put down $1M downpayment, thanks to the lottery winning.

That has been the reality for the past half dozen years.

New normal for Vancouver.

#179 Nemesis on 02.27.16 at 2:07 pm

#SaturdayMischief,Or… #NoSexInTheValleyForYou!…

“I will continue to educate teens re: this reckless behaviour.” – Kim Cattral

[TimesColonist] – Car plows into Kim Cattrall’s Comox Valley home

…“A senseless 16 yr old driver plowed into home Joy Riding @ 1 a.m. People cld have been killd. U should b ashamed,” the actress, best known for playing Samantha Jones on Sex and the City, said on Twitter.”…

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/car-plows-into-kim-cattrall-s-comox-valley-home-1.2185649

#180 zudnic on 02.27.16 at 2:07 pm

DELETED (anti-Muslim)

#181 IKnow on 02.27.16 at 2:10 pm

Penny Henny on 02.27.16 at 11:01 am
Five offers were from local bidders. — Garth

Yes and of those 5 , 4 were housewives with no reported income.

Why do you folks so stereotype, generalize and defame others? Jealousy and resentment, I guess. — Garth

————————

Maybe not quite 4 out of 5, but anecdotal remarks from realty insiders would suggest at least 3.5 out of 5.

#182 Ole Doberman on 02.27.16 at 2:14 pm

It’s like what one analyst says it’s money getting off the grid hiding in real estate – just funny why it’s Vancouver.
Have the drug cartels found a new home from Mehico?

And agree with some of the above statements, it’s local buyers but the money is coming from overseas via wire.
Wish we can get more info on this, I know wires are closely monitored these days, especially when it’s millions.

#183 Penny Henny on 02.27.16 at 2:32 pm

#159 Penny Henny on 02.27.16 at 11:01 am
Five offers were from local bidders. — Garth

Yes and of those 5 , 4 were housewives with no reported income.

Why do you folks so stereotype, generalize and defame others? Jealousy and resentment, I guess. — Garth

I am not jealous nor resentful. I am simple making a counter argument to your claim that the money is local.

I did not claim it. This is a reported fact. — Garth

#184 StevieWonder on 02.27.16 at 2:45 pm

ME # 128
My wife and I have been searching for a clean home to rent for months. We’ve viewed perhaps 35-40 homes. Perhaps 2 had owners who were living here. I wonder where all these local buyers are?
———————————————————————-
Folks are getting really desperate to link the dots. If you own a house ready to rent out, would you be living in it still while showing it to potential renters? Not likely.

#185 Puzni on 02.27.16 at 2:50 pm

Realistically almost all major metropolitan cities in the world saw an increase in prices. Vancouver and areas around vancouver are on fire. It’s a nice city to live in but it’s staring to become out of reach unless you are a millionaire. There are so many proposed new developments in the west end area that there is enough construction work for at least 3-5 more years. This juggernaut is not stopping anytime soon. This might be the next New York !

Buy now or be priced out forever.

Classic. — Garth

#186 DON on 02.27.16 at 3:50 pm

#104 valleyrenter on 02.26.16 at 9:17 pm

#83 DON on 02.26.16 @ 8:14 pm

I’d be willing to take this realtors’ comments at face value. He seemed to say it was 5 local families from within the area that put in offers. Considering the meme out here in lotusland is Asian invasion, if what he originally stated wasn’t the truth one figures he would be pumping said meme.
**********************

I get the logic.

Flip side:
Public angry at supposed foreign buyer frenzy (which was spouted way back to get locals into a frenzy). Now government is being forced to locate stats and find out what is really going on. Now local realtors sees a new threat – the truth and starts to say it was all locals. Maybe an honest salesman but…if possible. There’s always an angle…just like a politician.

#187 max on 02.27.16 at 3:52 pm

When market crash, people with money left, try to find a safe place to put it. The CDN dollar crashed out, loosing those who parked foreign cash in CDN banks loose an additional 30%. Add in its common for banks to inform foreign countries about their citizens accounts. Think all those swiss and other offshore havens with so called secret banking laws. Well a few years ago they told America about all the Americans, they told Canada, about all the Canadians with accounts. The next best thing to a bank is real estate, all the wealthy have held more land then gold.

With the 80% drop in Hong Kong real estate, the Asians are now looking to place cash in a very safe place Vancouver real estate. They don’t understand North Americans with large sums of cash, use real estate as an RRSP on steroids. They aren’t looking for it too rise in value. They are looking for a safe return.

I do know of a Vancouverite who made a lot of money on real estate. He bought a cheap building on the edge of Chinatown, he bought several hotels in Burnaby. Got a gaming license and put casinos in the properties. 15 years later he sold them for $1.7billion. That’s Trump style real estate investment!

These prices won’t stay up long term. The rich who spread a few million over multiple homes to earn a return in rent, won’t allow it. The people who buy family homes, who know can’t afford them wont allow it either. When the rich and middle class get together, we get things like Magna Carta or the U.S. constitution.

#188 DON on 02.27.16 at 3:55 pm

#109 Here in Victoria on 02.26.16 at 9:51 pm

“The price numbers from the realtors frankenumber price index (upward biased) are, at best, misleading and you can be sure that the actual price performance of Victoria’s housing market is much worse than the numbers that the local board publishes.

Victoria’s housing bubble is massive.”

Actual price performance…is much worse but, but the housing bubble is massive. Well which one is it then, decline or bubble? I read some odd things here sometimes and sometimes I read some that are ??? People need to get out and about a bit more.

**************************
Could be indicative of a massive bubble on the way down – deflating. When Vancouver pops – the ripple effect.

#189 re IKNOW on 02.27.16 at 3:57 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/refugees-pay-more-income-tax-than-millionaire-investor-immigrants-1.2984982

#190 DON on 02.27.16 at 4:09 pm

#141 Scully on 02.27.16 at 12:48 am

Wow, just wow. I have never heard such bubble talk since the dot.com era. #120 – fishman – Hollywood? Really? I guess the celebrities, producers and all the Asians are desperately bidding on houses here and driving up the market. Mostly for our drinking water. Good grief. It’s speculation and the rest of you feeling “the train’s leaving the station without you.” It’s crazy out there. Not rational. The bank is only too happy to accommodate your future leverage to move you up to the home you deserve. It’s a great time to cash out and rent but most refuse to do that. Ask yourself why…
***********************

Nice…thank you for taking that one on. I didn’t know where to start.

#191 bdy sktn on 02.27.16 at 4:11 pm

StevieWonder on 02.27.16 at 2:45 pm

ME # 128
My wife and I have been searching for a clean home to rent for months. We’ve viewed perhaps 35-40 homes. Perhaps 2 had owners who were living here. I wonder where all these local buyers are?
———————————————————————-
Folks are getting really desperate to link the dots. If you own a house ready to rent out, would you be living in it still while showing it to potential renters? Not likely.
………..
Stevie look again
“Perhaps 2 had owners who were living here. “- as in canada/ bc . Not in the house in question

#192 DON on 02.27.16 at 4:14 pm

#165 MF on 02.27.16 at 11:40 am

#163 Smoking Man on 02.27.16 at 11:16 am

Serious question but Why would trump be anti Israel?

Tons of Jewish business interests in the US. Why would Trump be against business? He’s a business man.

MF
******************
My answer: He’s a competitive business man, who holds his cards tight. Right now he is putting on a show. I’m more interested in his next stage of the strategy. Business is war – no friends…but profit margin.

#193 Smoking Man on 02.27.16 at 4:23 pm

#165 MF on 02.27.16 at 11:40 am
#163 Smoking Man on 02.27.16 at 11:16 am

Serious question but Why would trump be anti Israel?

Tons of Jewish business interests in the US. Why would Trump be against business? He’s a business man.

MF

…..

He’s not anti Isreal or business. He’s anti psyco neocons. Look at all the wars thay have started in the middle easy. The intent was to back Isreals interests but look how badly it’s back fired.

These people are nuts Graham and McCain the worced right up there with nutandyahoo.

The polices of these morons is why we have so many radicalized monster now.

I for one think all you little earthlings can get along but from where I sit on my little observational flying sauser.

The leaders here are going about it all wrong.

As bazzar as this sounds, I think Trump can make it better.

#194 Panhead on 02.27.16 at 5:16 pm

#175 zudnic on 02.27.16 at 1:43 pm
Just a few short years ago, they closed the local junior high. Why? There wasn’t enough kids coming in to support it. In the 80’s they closed several elementary schools for the same reason. Tsawwassen has very low growth rates. Back in the 80’s, my great aunt bought a condo in Tsawwassen. You see my family lived there, my great grand mother, her mother was in a nursing home there. She had a reason to be there, ties to the area.

Yeah but to us Tsawwassenites the low growth rate is what we love. Have you looked at the rest of the LM? South Delta is one of the LAST good places left. Tsawwassen is surrounded on 2 sides by beautiful beaches. In the midst of working farmland. No crime to speak of. Friendly people. Fresh air. Of course it helps to be retired and not have to commute but commuting sucks from EVERYWHERE now … I will admit that prices are out of reality but so is the whole LM … it won’t last.

#195 TurnerNation on 02.27.16 at 5:32 pm

Democracy for union elite and party faithful, priviliged elites.

The rest of us must sharpen our pencils and balance our checkbooks and live within out means. We are little people at the bottom of the pyramid. There’s a war on your know. Sure is.

The mafia is jealous, backroom strong-arming to get into our wallets:

http://www.postcity.com/Eat-Shop-Do/Do/February-2016/Sewell-Police-spending-is-scandalous-irresponsible-and-mismanaged/

“A full budget was never prepared. The board just winged it. They did not have before them a budget of what each police division can spend or how much is allocated to detectives or the mounted unit or domestic assaults or anything else.

https://nowtoronto.com/news/features/just-how-deep-in-the-police-unions-pocket-is-john-tory/

…an effort to shoot down an attempt by former Board vice-chair Michael Thompson to slice some $24 million out of the cop’s $1 billion-plus stipend for 2016.

It’s not clear what sh_t Saunders and McCormack were saying in those meetings – Saunders had already publicly raised the old saw about increased crime if cops don’t get their money. But whatever the pitch, it was clearly enough to turn the tide and convince more than a few councillors to reconsider backing Thompson’s motions.

#196 TurnerNation on 02.27.16 at 5:37 pm

Sinking a million bucks into an ugly 900 square foot junker beater? Only in Torrona.

Purchase 680k + 325k in “renos”

http://www.postcity.com/Eat-Shop-Do/Shop/February-2016/Design-Insight-A-325000-renovation-transforms-a-fixer-upper-into-an-energy-efficient-sustainable-home/

#197 zudnic on 02.27.16 at 6:11 pm

I grew up in Tsawwassen, when my parents wanted a better, we lived in the nicest house on Tsawwassen beach. They moved to the British Properties.

Point a crap house in Tsawwassen shouldn’t be over a million. The growth there is like Victoria, slow to dead. It always has been.

The 30 year battle over the 217 hectare development on the spetifore lands, wasn’t about the environment. It was all about real estate values. The values would have dropped like rocks!

I don’t believe there is a real demand in the lower mainland other then the fleeing Asian cash. When that dries up. When those Asians see their investments start falling. They be selling like crazy, with no buyers!

It take 30 to 40 years to see prices this high again.

#198 For those about to flop... on 02.27.16 at 6:12 pm

I know #178

Local East Indian developers build and sell, maybe the majority of new house buyers in Vancouver, Burnaby and Richmond, even Coquitlam are ethnic Chinese as they likely have the most courage among various ethnic groups to keep bidding up.

/////////////////////////////////////////

On the Westside their aren’t that many East Indian developers where the bulk of the Ham is being spent.
Most of the developers on the Westside are Caucasian and Chinese.There are plenty of East Indian developers on the Eastside ,Richmond and of course Surrey.
There are few sub trade East Indians that work west of Granville…mainly drywallers and electricians.

Sure there are some new companies that have jumped on the bandwagon in the past five years but most of the contractors I deal with on the Westside were around before the bubble started and have simply expanded and enjoyed riding the wave.

One company I work with built around 40 houses in a five year period, now all them houses have been flipped 2/3 times so not only did they make good money on the original build ,the new owners want to modify/personalize them and seek out the original builder so it is the gift that keeps giving.
Everyone is fascinated with the sale price but Westside renovations can have big price tags too…

M41BC

#199 Ned on 02.27.16 at 6:24 pm

http://theasiafactor.ca/ca#im=4&im0=0&scrollTo=im

They may be PR now but it’s still HAM!!
In total there is 160,000 “economic” immigrants a year 80,000 family class immigrants a year coming to Canada.
All buying homes.. All hyper inflating housing markets.
And our children have to compete with them… Basicly inslaving them into this debt or putting them into stack ’em and pack ’em appartments and condos

What a sad, xenophobic country this is turning into. All because of house lust. — Garth

#200 Entrepreneur on 02.27.16 at 6:33 pm

Okay, read it all, now forming an opinion: “42,326 property trades in YVR last year. Of those 95% made by locals”-Garth…on that, we need a graph breakdown on the 42 thousand and the locals. With general figures the true picture is being brushed over.

I believe in what #178 & 181 IKnow says…”No Ham likely won’t invest much outside of real estate, so job creation is marginal…will be related to real estate” & “3.5 out of 5 housewives reported no income.”

Like to know the price ranges of the houses sold, the realtor, the paperwork that goes with the transaction. As for the 95% local l would like to see a graph for that with detail info for a clearer understanding.

Apparently a group was formed to look into the shadow flipping in Vancouver, I think by the RE Board?
and with that, hope they are truthful.

#201 jess on 02.27.16 at 6:46 pm

the state of speaker paul ryan and gov. scott walker…so where is this “prosperity for americans” here

New analysis shows Wisconsin poverty on the upswing
February 24, 2016
Poverty across Wisconsin reaches highest level in 30 years
http://www.jsonline.com/news/wisconsin/poverty-across-wisconsin-reaches-highest-level-in-30-years-b99676529z1-370157381.html

http://www.prwatch.org/news/2016/02/13050/remember-when-scott-walkers-reforms-were-going-deliver-booming-economy
http://news.wisc.edu/new-analysis-shows-wisconsin-poverty-on-the-upswing/?utm_source=news-release&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news-release-short

#202 jess on 02.27.16 at 6:49 pm

The Distressed Communities Index

The Distressed Communities Index
The Distressed Communities Index (DCI) is a customized dataset created by EIG examining economic distress throughout the country and made up of interactive maps, infographics, and a report. It captures data from more than 25,000 zip codes (those with populations over 500 people). In all, it covers 99 percent — 312 million — of Americans

http://eig.org/dci

#203 Ronaldo on 02.27.16 at 7:12 pm

Hopefully this fellow will put the pressure on the group that are assigned the job of investigating the shadow flipping going on in the Vancouver real estate market. MMMMMMM, calling it a “Scandal” already without an ivestigation. That seems a bit odd since it’s perfectly legal according to what others have stated.

http://davidebymla.ca/news/biv-advisory-group-named-in-wake-of-shadow-flipping-scandal/

Of course it is legal, and likely inconsequential. — Garth

#204 Bobby13 on 02.27.16 at 7:43 pm

Its amazes me how long housing has been holding on. These things can play out for a long time, however I believe this hard house pumping is coming to a climax soon and its going to be messy.

#205 Smoking Man on 02.27.16 at 8:18 pm

The mask comes off; in total full frontal nudity the way US presidential appointees are selected is no longer a Tin Foil conspiracy.

Out there in the open now for all to see.

Since the Kennedy assassination presidents are pre screened, all owned and didn’t matter which one won, a democrat or republican the out come always the same.

If this election campaign has said anything, it’s screaming there is no real democracy in the USA.

The shear magnitude of the machine and MSM going after trump is unprecedented. I always new one day the Internet would eventually weaken the machines ability to paint the narrative and expose it to what reality is. That day has arrived.

The GOP establishment will do one of two things, appoint a 3rd party candidate to suck votes away from Trump insuring a Hillary win, or down right, lets support Hillary. Proving democracy in the USA is just a theater.

Now this is going to get ugly, you aint seen nothing yet. Roger Stone was just barred from CNN, he’s got the goods on Hillary and Bill and when the final debates between Hillary and Trump.

Trump will destroy her. But it is refreshing watching the GOP establishment in an all out bat shit crazy disorganized panic.

Nothing lasts forever.

Pendulum always swings back and forth.

#206 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 02.27.16 at 8:18 pm

why are ppl upset over foreign money (if it really is foreign money)? canadians getting paid big money for their overvalued houses. that sounds amazing!

#207 Panhead on 02.27.16 at 8:21 pm

#197 zudnic on 02.27.16 at 6:11 pm
Point a crap house in Tsawwassen shouldn’t be over a million. The growth there is like Victoria, slow to dead. It always has been.

The only reason the growth rate out here is so slow is because the residents fight City council at every turn to keep it that way. It would look just like White Rock if they hadn’t. That’s what keeps it like it is. Not because people don’t want to live here or develop it. They do. I believe we will never see these prices again in my lifetime but they are what they are. Anyone young person wanting to buy a SFH pretty well anywhere in the LM is hooped right now. Just glad I’m not one of them. If the prices do stay where they are I feel sorry for the young that certainly won’t get the oportunities I did. This won’t be good for our “just society” in the long run …

#208 Smoking Man on 02.27.16 at 9:04 pm

Funny Trump pics from twitter.

http://dyslexicsmokingman.blogspot.ca/2016/02/logic.html

#209 Smoking Man on 02.27.16 at 9:37 pm

When Dave Macay CEO of RBC was in Devous Switzerland he put out he’s observations on linkedin

Below is item 7. Can you imagine all the telephone calls this weekend between all those that rule over the peasants.
To be a fly on the wall.

7. Why is populism surging?
No two words hung more heavily in the Davos air than “Donald Trump”. The Republican frontrunner didn’t seem to have many fans there. But a bigger concern was the trend he personifies: the rise of populism. Whether it’s because of economic stagnation, terrorism, or a sense of helplessness in a digital and global world, people in many countries are understandably concerned and turning inward. The economic consequences of this are sobering. Much of the talk at Davos revolved around the tightening of borders, particularly in Europe, and a quiet shift away from the open flow of people, goods, services and data. If the global village shrinks, we will all be weaker

#210 Ronaldo on 02.27.16 at 9:39 pm

An interesting article from Dec. 12, 2014 on locals buying properties to reno and flip. If things were tough back then I wonder what these people would be saying today. Maybe we are nearing the end.

The two properties mentioned above:

8622 Selkirk – bought in 2009 for $199,000. Listed for $239,000 in 2013 after updating the kitchen and bathroom and didn’t sell after lowering price by 20,000 and relisted again for $199,000 and put back on the rental market. This unit or one like it just sold and was listed at $200,000. (1 br 630 sf)

8775 Cartier – bought for $199,000 in 2012. 1 year later listed for $294,000 after a $30,000 reno. Didn’t sell til 2014 and for $251,000. This one or one similar in the complex recently sold for $259,000.

I wonder how many other stories like this out there.

You hear stories about all these houses being up for sale but on a recent re-walk in the Mt. Pleasant neighbourhood covering a 30 square block area, I still saw the same 3 homes with a sold sign and 1 other that came up for sale on 18th west just last Wednesday. The open house was today. I suspect it will have sold. This is after a 3 week period after walking this same area. Not a lot of homes coming up for sale that I can see. Not sure just what to make of it.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/flip-flop-with-prices-sky-high-its-hard-for-renovators-to-make-a-profit/article22066282/

#211 koenig on 02.27.16 at 9:45 pm

From what I read shadow flipping is much like phantom bidding at auctions. As stated earlier here, to make money as an agent, its all about listings, you don’t need to find buyers. Just listings. The real estate board knows this and that’s why they are going along with it. The more people think the market is hot, the more will want to sell now VS later. The more sellers, means more buyers. The problem the foreign money coming out China, has tripled the demand.

I was a car dealer, a GM of a Ferrari dealer told me most of his customers are cash buyers. I could use my credit line to buy a Ferrari and the dealer would think its cash. Back 20 years ago the interest was lower on a line of credit VS leasing/financing a Ferrari. Now days they are all leased/financed even the “rich” foreigners. A lot of them get their money from relatives in China or business there. Sure the data says they are local buyers, but if a relative or transferred money from China to their Canadian account, it would appear local when the money comes from a Canadian account.

I believe once China stabilizes or their is tanks in Hong Kong, Chinese banks frozen, etc. Either way the buying rush will stop as quickly as it began.

#212 Sharon Bates on 02.27.16 at 9:50 pm

We are nowhere near ‘there’ yet, as long as corruption money keeps pouring into this safe haven for criminality. What is being done to the Canadian economy due to money laundering is third world banana republic. Anyone who thinks this will ever end as long as our laws are overlooked is living in la la land.

People with more money than you must be criminals, right? — Garth

#213 Squish on 02.27.16 at 9:59 pm

#190 DON on 02.27.16 at 4:09 pm

Well put.

The crazier prices get, the more bizarre and convoluted the tales become to explain and justify the situation. And the crazier the market, the more people point to those very prices as proof that it will never be otherwise; that this is a new normal. Instead of seeing increased risk, they see opportunity and certainty – it’s the only safe place to put your money!

People are fascinating creatures, that’s for sure.

#214 Millienial Manbun Trump on 02.27.16 at 10:10 pm

#208 Smoking Man on 02.27.16 at 9:04 pm

Funny Trump pics from twitter.

http://dyslexicsmokingman.blogspot.ca/2016/02/logic.html

I’ve the moister vote locked up too..

http://rack.1.mshcdn.com/media/ZgkyMDE1LzEwLzAxL2E3L3RydW1wYnVudGh1LmJkOTVmLmpwZwpwCXRodW1iCTk1MHg1MzQjCmUJanBn/362ccaec/51d/trump-bun-thumb.jpg

#215 Lillooet, BC on 02.27.16 at 10:10 pm

(… The signature honking big white rock is actually just painted white, and flaking.)

***************************

Garth really knows this cheating white painted stone!!!
The place is called White Rock doesn’t mean there is a real white rock.

#216 max on 02.27.16 at 10:40 pm

The problem when real estate goes well above the cost of living, the prices fall faster and harder. It take decades to recover.

Prices get high soon people can’t afford to trade up or down. Their house becomes priceless.

A real investor in real estate isn’t looking for a huge profit when they sell. They want a better return on their money then bank interest. The safety in real estate is you’ll get your money back. Prices go bubble like now, they can loose their money.

I know a guy who got out of a software company, stock options with a $100million. He had so much cash he didn’t know what to do with it. He tried the stock market, lost $200k. Said forget this. Realized for people with a lot of legal cash, real estate is an RRSP on steroids. Spread $20million over rentals, you earn a good return and have loads of write offs. This is real estate investment. He didn’t care about making more money, he just wanted to earn interest on his money safely.

You know how you know there really is a huge demand in real estate? Agents start building spec houses. Do you know how agents go broke? Building spec houses.

#217 Ronaldo on 02.27.16 at 10:46 pm

This is the one that came on the market Wednesday. $2.88 million. Has 3 suites and revenue of $64000. To be considered a decent investment, it would have to bring in revenue of $250,000. Even putting that kind of money into a diversified and balanced portfolio would result in $200,000 per year in revenue and you wouldn’t have to deal tenants and the problems that come with it. Open house is tomorrow, will be interesting to see how this one sells. Hard to believe that it’s the only one for sale in a 30 sq. block area. Spring will be interesting.

http://www.vancouvercharacterhomes.ca/r2037994-208-w-18th-avenue

#218 Bottoms_Up on 02.27.16 at 10:50 pm

#140 Brian on 02.27.16 at 12:46 am
————————————
If the buying is concentrated in the west, the supply would be constrained further….unless old HAM was selling to new HAM. Does HAM have generational issues/jealousy like we do???

#219 Siva on 02.27.16 at 10:54 pm

How is this legal? Unbelievable.

http://globalnews.ca/news/2187517/toronto-city-councillor-says-muslim-only-subsidized-housing-is-acceptable/

Read this. — Garth

#220 Smoking Man on 02.27.16 at 11:00 pm

Without artists in the mix.
We are stuck with black and white.

#221 mind blown on 02.27.16 at 11:04 pm

Tiny small bungalow over 100 years old, remodel in not so good neighborhood can be yours for only 1.5 million in the most desirable place to live in the world, Raincity.

Act now or be priced out forever! 4ever! fuuurrrever!

#222 common sense on 02.27.16 at 11:09 pm

Smokie:

Like Jerry Lee Lewis at all? Just heard a rare 1964 concert of his from the Star Club in Hamburg, Germany…

Rockin, high energy abandon………………Whew hoo hoo

#223 Ronaldo on 02.27.16 at 11:09 pm

A very interesting article by the Vancouver Observer 3 years ago. A story of a propective purchaser and a realtor and the difficulty in finding affordable housing.

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/city/realestate/300000-one-human-soul-plus-tax-and-maintenance-your-first-vancouver-apartment?page=0,2

#224 common sense on 02.27.16 at 11:21 pm

Snowden should be Trump’s running mate..

#225 Ronaldo on 02.27.16 at 11:25 pm

Nine Ways to Turn Vancouver’s Housing Crisis from ‘Breaking Point’ to Tipping Point.

In wake of recent headlines, we offer these ready-made ideas.

By David P. Ball and Katie Hyslop, 10 Feb 2016, Tyee Solutions Society

http://thetyee.ca/News/2016/02/10/Vancouver-Housing-Tipping-Point/

#226 Siva on 02.27.16 at 11:27 pm

Thanks for the link Garth. Cannot believe Toronto city allows organized faith based groups mooch on tax payer dollars. If they truly built the units with their own community money and time why did they give control to the city? Hard to believe their spin. This is very sad and wrong public policy. Creates resentment among those who are not religious or do not follow an organized religion that lobbies hard. People come to Canada to be free, to get away from such regressive practices. Govt should not be discriminating based on race, religion etc. Somebody should challenge this practices in court.

#227 sockeye sam on 02.27.16 at 11:47 pm

Come on Garth. Where are you getting these numbers?(42000 sold to local buyers?If that is true then a local buyer is a mainland Chinese person that has parked here for a few months and has bought a second home to sell to their friend or relative. Then yes I guess you could call that local.
Like I’ve said before. I’ve lived over here on the west side of Van for 40 plus years. Come and ride around with me and I’ll show you what’s really happening. It’s called getting the cash out of China as quick as you can by what ever means.In the last week I’ve been helping a friend out delivering flyers for his new up start landscaping company. Most of these houses over on the west side are vacant. They’re easy to spot. Closed curtains, flyers piled up, landscaping in bad shape,needs paint etc etc. West Side “all house no people”.

#228 Bram on 02.28.16 at 1:21 am

Selling directly to China:
http://globalnews.ca/news/2544973/vancouver-realtor-defends-marketing-properties-to-chinese-conferences/

I think Garth downplays the China influence.
It may not be as bad as some people assert, but I doubt that foreign money only plays a part in 5% of transactions.

Also, don’t underestimate the cascading.
When a $30M Shaugnessy house is sold to off-shore bidders, then the sellers probably downgrade to one or to $10M Pt Grey residences.
The sellers in Pt Grey then re-buy for their children in Kits.
The sellers in Kits, after cashing out, re-buy two properties for the offspring in East Van.
And so on.

So a single $30M deal can reverberate all the way to higher prices for Langley town houses.

Don’t forget: those that cash-in and downsize, will have to live somewhere. And they will not always be renting, especially if you consider all their cash sitting in a bank account doing very little.

Bram

#229 fishman on 02.28.16 at 1:33 am

Geez, some of you guys were mocking my “Hollywood North”, “kids everywhere want to move here” unlimited fresh potable water analysis of Vancouver & B.C. real estate double bubble theory. Such criticism hurt my feelings. They’ll get better though,as soon as an agent phones & offers another $100,000 on top of what was offered last month which was topped up every month or so bye another $100,000 for the last couple years. West side cap rate on commercial is less than two & dropping. 50% expense to gross ratio common. And still they keep coming. It’ll stop, for awhile. Prices may drop & if they go down enough, players like me & my buddies will jump back in (or at least try to train up the kids to run the job site). Are their really some readers out there that don’t get the terrible tragic truth of of transposing Hollywood to Hollywood North? They think that’s a joke?

#230 Freeman on 02.28.16 at 5:44 am

Here is the real reason why house prices are booming in Canada:

BREAKING NEWS: “CURRENT GENERATION OF YOUNG CANADIANS ARE THE WEALTHIEST EVER: New Federal Study shows”

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/current-generation-young-canadians-wealthiest-160000402.html?nhp=1

#231 RoCK BEATS PAPER on 02.28.16 at 6:16 am

“Why do you folks so stereotype, generalize and defame others? Jealousy and resentment, I guess. — Garth”

I guess people do that out of pure laziness, as in an unwillingness to take the time to think and analyse.
—————————————————————
“I did not claim it. This is a reported fact. — Garth”

I do not think we have good facts as to the % foreign buying in the GTA or Van. Also, even if we did, we would likely not know the impact at the margin of such a group.
_________________________________________

“This might be the next New York !”

I hope that was sarcasm? Otherwise, it is pure idiocy!
__________________________________________
“All buying homes.. All hyper inflating housing markets.”

80 thousand homes… And how many homes are their in Canada in total? 12 million households!!

“We’re currently building over two new houses for every person we’re adding to the working-age population,” Rabidoux wrote in a column for the Globe and Mail.
__________________________________________

“We are nowhere near ‘there’ yet, as long as corruption money keeps pouring into this safe haven for criminality. What is being done to the Canadian economy due to money laundering is third world banana republic. Anyone who thinks this will ever end as long as our laws are overlooked is living in la la land.”

I recommend sending delegations to foreign lands to propose selling Victoria in one shot. We could list the whole town for say $2 trillion. Tax the transaction accordingly and build another Victoria from scratch. No deficit, lots of spending and jobs. Oh, that right, Vancouver is like New York and Canada hasn’t got enough land, water or even (hot) air to spare.
________________________________________

HAM – a meat
HAM – back of the thighs and buttocks
HAM – Acronym for Hard As a Motherfu@#r
HAM – a showey performer (Trump?)
HAM – Amateur radio operator (sub Blog for radio)

Garth, please tell me that in all the years, you have actually converted at least one retard into a fully functioning literate.

#232 Siva on 02.28.16 at 8:05 am

In Australia many Asian Aussies (5-10 people) pool money and flip/invest in real estate. They could very well be doing the same in Vancouver and that could be one reason behind astronomical prices – rampant flipping by Asian Canadians, not ncessarily laundered money from China.

#233 Renter's Revenge! on 02.28.16 at 8:54 am

If only Irving Fisher were alive today, he could say the magic words, “Vancouver house prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau,” and we could get this nonsense over with right away.

#234 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.28.16 at 9:15 am

@#185 Puzni
“Buy now or be priced out forever. ”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Your name is misspelled.
It should be “Ponzi”

#235 Sharon Bone on 02.28.16 at 10:05 am

“People with more money than you must be criminals, right? — Garth”

I know the west side market and all the players intimately. This money is not local. Only someone trying to cover up the HAM angle would be as positively naive as yourself about what’s happening in the market.

I’ll repeat what many have said….these are foreign nationals from the Peoples Republic of China ( their own government has exposed this problem without reservation and has it’s legal apparatus snatching their crooks back to China on a regular basis) not locals of any specific ethnic persuasion.

You’re fear ( and your Liberal backers) that a spotlight on a certain ethnicity would create some kind of backlash against all immigrants is unfounded and irrational.

First you cry that all the stats from agents and the bureaucracy as untrustworthy…but in the same breath accept that the information you’ll accept from those agencies is bona fide when it suits you? Thanks for treating all your readers as lesser beings than yourself.

The lesser beings are those who truly believe all foreign buyers are crooks, money launderers and criminals. There are many on this blog. Sadly. — Garth

#236 max on 02.28.16 at 10:24 am

The problem for BC is our biggest employment sector is junior finance. I don’t mean real estate finance either. Its the biggest because it funds the majority of jobs in BC. They bet big on oil and gas. Forestry is dead, biggest being Canfor is in major trouble. Mining is dead, Teck is in major trouble. To make money in finance you now need to do big deals. The problem no small deals are being done. Finance isn’t creating real employment, people can’t eat on real estate alone.

#237 Herb on 02.28.16 at 10:29 am

#205 Smoking Man,

“…democracy in the USA is just a theater.”

Stop it, SM, we’re in danger of agreeing on something!

It’s not just the USA, it’s always been thus, everywhere. In Athens, the winning formula was great oratory, in Rome bread and circuses, and in our current pseudo-democracy it’s lie like a blanket, bribe ’em with their own money, or just promise them anything but get elected.

Real democracy would be government with the informed consent of the governed. Find me the politician who is prepared to face an electorate that is fully informed about their circumstances, without using misinformation, disinformation or plain empty promises to get votes.

Trump is popular because he speaks about issues of concern to voters in language they understand. His solutions are extreme, but his audiences seem tired of gentler approaches that haven’t worked for them. He may rouse lower-level Republicans, but there are too many powerful interest that couldn’t stomach a Trump Presidency.

Regardless who governs, the corporate world will be in power.

#238 max on 02.28.16 at 10:46 am

I don’t have a problem with people immigration, a steady flow is good business. But this isn’t immigration this is capital flight to safety and its not good for the country.

#239 The American on 02.28.16 at 11:03 am

Look, everyone, Trump isn’t the next President. Not going to happen if you understand anything about Delegates vs. Super Delegates and how the Electoral College works. The next President is a Democrat, without question. So, you’re getting Sanders or Clinton. It’s that simple. Get your heads around it. I understand how it is spun in Canada (believe I do), but it is hilariously overdone. The DNC is a much stronger committee with a clearly stronger bond and targeted strategy marketing its purpose. Besides, Democrats have more fun. Just ask DNCE. See here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWaRiD5ym74

#240 Foxy on 02.28.16 at 11:10 am

Prices are falling it’s happening, just everything is kept hidden. My friend just told me she bought a house in KW area at half price because it was a foreclosure from the bank. Can’t wait for what is next to come, painful correction on it’s way :-))

#241 tanman on 02.28.16 at 11:26 am

Hey MixedBag,

Thanks for the link by Scott Adams. I especially liked the part about Lincoln being gay and his “Lincoln Liked Logs”. Adams is brilliant.

#242 Smoking Man on 02.28.16 at 11:36 am

#239 The American on 02.28.16 at 11:03 am
Look, everyone, Trump isn’t the next President. Not going to happen if you understand anything about Delegates vs. Super Delegates and how the Electoral College works. The next President is a Democrat, without question. So, you’re getting Sanders or Clinton. It’s that simple. Get your heads around it. I understand how it is spun in Canada (believe I do), but it is hilariously overdone. The DNC is a much stronger committee with a clearly stronger bond and targeted strategy marketing its purpose. Besides, Democrats have more fun. Just ask DNCE. See here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWaRiD5ym74
…..

You’re wrong

The words I would use to define Trump is Super Adaptive.

He knows the herd and his adiance more than anyone. His script will change going forward and his base will grow and Grow.

Education and cultral marxism has made the herd celebrity worshipers.

Know one can exploit that better than Trump.

He’s going to be the Next President of the USA get over it.

#243 AB Boxster on 02.28.16 at 11:53 am

Story in FP today.

http://business.financialpost.com/diane-francis/all-canadians-are-paying-the-price-for-conceal-estate-in-toronto-and-vancouver

Interesting that Americans see this as an issue, but Canada must be special.
We don’t make the effort to find out.

Don’t believe everything Diane Francis tells you. — Garth

#244 Mark on 02.28.16 at 11:56 am

“It’s called getting the cash out of China as quick as you can by what ever means.”

Why isn’t that ‘cash’ appearing in Canada then? Why are most of those expensive houses in Vancouver being bought with large amounts of credit? Why must that ‘cash’ magically go into one of the most expensive asset classes on the planet instead of into, for example, a balanced portfolio as advocated by Garth and others?

The whole ‘Asians with suitcases of cash’ has little evidence to support it. A far more plausible scenario is that capital is actually leaving Canada for places foreign. That’s what the weak CAD$, and various other figures tell us.

#245 Mark on 02.28.16 at 12:01 pm

“Spread $20million over rentals, you earn a good return and have loads of write offs.”

Not in most Canadian RE at such contemporarily elevated prices. Which costs, on average, over 3X as much as a balanced stock portfolio, and has a lot of execution risk. Not many people with $100M in “stock options” want the hassle of running RE investment and that size of portfolio would be almost impossible for an individual to run without hiring a few people at the very least. Quite a few if SFH is involved.

$200k loss and he was ‘scared’ out of stocks? Yet made millions on a software company? Seriously? Doesn’t sound plausible as a story at all.

#246 World Traveller on 02.28.16 at 12:05 pm

#219 Siva on 02.27.16 at 10:54 pm
How is this legal? Unbelievable.

http://globalnews.ca/news/2187517/toronto-city-councillor-says-muslim-only-subsidized-housing-is-acceptable/

Read this. — Garth

“one Italian, one Jewish and two Muslim” to receive regional rent-geared-to-income housing subsidies.
and I’ll add “walk into a bar”

#247 Smoking Man on 02.28.16 at 12:06 pm

Thinking about running as a Conservative in the Next Federal Election

Minister of Heronmics.

#248 jay on 02.28.16 at 12:10 pm

#236 Max . It’s different now .It’s all shopping mall’s and condo’s in Van .Government is all about real estate now; it’s the easiest way to create job’s.

#249 pinstripe on 02.28.16 at 12:19 pm

The effects of the policies created by the AB PC policy makers from yesteryear.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/banks-offer-homeowners-options-in-a-tough-economy-1.3467269

#250 Keith in Calgary on 02.28.16 at 12:57 pm

Garth said……….”The lesser beings are those who truly believe all foreign buyers are crooks, money launderers and criminals. There are many on this blog. Sadly. — Garth”

————————-

And the reason there are no hard statistics on the “validity and legitimacy” of the huge capital inflows into the RE markets in Canada and the US is because the politicians, the lobbyists for the “Real Estate Industrial Complex” and other special interest groups don’t want the truth to be exposed.

Whatever the truth may be……and if it “is” what you always continually infer it to be Garth, we’ll never know as a result.

Touche.

McCarthyism. Sad. — Garth

#251 max on 02.28.16 at 1:02 pm

I know a lot of Asians, my sister in law, well she is Chinese born and raised. My brother like me is white European traditional Canadian. Well I also know a lot of South Asians, one of my South Asians used to say the liberals are wrong I’m not Indo Canadian, I’m anglo in a brown suit! Most of our immigrants are the later. They become just like us! Christmas time I was at the doctors office, a white said Merry Christmas to the South Asian girls at the front desk, then he apologized for his non pc mistake. They all said we celebrate Christmas. I know the doctor on a more personnel level, a rare thing South Asian conservative. Anyway, he was born and raised in India. Got his medical degree in Canada. Even her family celebrates Christmas, roast beef and turkey and all!

Point they all become us. They marry Canadians, they go to our schools, etc. Interesting thing its the same in America with the Hispanics. I worked in U.S. agriculture, know tons of Hispanics. They become very Americanized within the first generation. A large number have very conservative family values. The Hispanic political lobby is a bunch of bleeding heart commie liberals. You’d think all Hispanics are socialist liberals. Sure the illegals that came to milk Americas social safety are. But the ones who came for a better life, hate the scammers more then the right wing politicians do! They all love Trump. Oh and they are the ones who can vote!

The drama teacher and his trained seals are on the wrong side of history.

#252 brad on 02.28.16 at 1:21 pm

5% of buyers in Van are Asian but it only takes 5% of Van real estate buyers with deep pockets looking for a place to park their cash to artificially inflate a hot housing market.

#253 Bubbly in sf on 02.28.16 at 2:27 pm

http://www.businessinsider.com/popping-housing-bubbles-in-san-francisco-and-silicon-valley-2016-2

#254 Denisa on 02.28.16 at 3:13 pm

The ‘landmark white rock’ on the shore in White Rock, B.C. was originally white with gull dropping.

#255 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 02.28.16 at 3:23 pm

US economy booming and inflation is here. Canada, not so much.

http://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/idINKCN0VZ1RP

#256 TheAwakenedOne on 02.28.16 at 3:39 pm

Man… I agree: house lust is tearing our social fabrics apart.

Then why the hell can’t we just build new houses in surrounding areas of Vancouver? As if we were short on land here ?! (another stupid myth).

Justin baby: come home and show us whacha got, heh?

#257 mike from Mtl on 02.28.16 at 3:41 pm

#196 TurnerNation on 02.27.16 at 5:37 pm
Sinking a million bucks into an ugly 900 square foot junker beater? Only in Torrona.

Purchase 680k + 325k in “renos”

http://www.postcity.com/Eat-Shop-Do/Shop/February-2016/Design-Insight-A-325000-renovation-transforms-a-fixer-upper-into-an-energy-efficient-sustainable-home/

=====================================

Indeed it is nice on the inside though for 300k I’d probably just wreck it and start over. The exterior is not my thing, that 50s midwest frontage, blchh. Spending that much I’d go all out.

#258 Keith in Calgary on 02.28.16 at 3:48 pm

McCarthyism ??? LOL !!!

Well, at least you didn’t call me a Nazi……..yet.

It has nothing to do with that.

Wouldn’t it be nice to know if we are a haven for illicit money ? Or not.

#259 46 and 2 on 02.28.16 at 4:31 pm

A question….way off topic but need some input please.

I know that I am way behind on cpp contributions (self employed forever).

Can I “catch up”?

#260 koenig on 02.28.16 at 4:41 pm

If its local money, they are betting big more foreign investors are coming! Investing and counting your chickens before the eggs hatch. Never works out well. Lets ask our liberal moron premier how is her LNG bet working out!

#261 triplenet on 02.28.16 at 4:43 pm

#130 Punzi

It’s personal incorporation – for tax avoidance.
Realtors are entitled to that too you know.

Victoria real estate update – are you Smoking Man……in drag?
’cause you don’t make sense.