The red tide

VOTED TORY modified

He’s tweeted. He’s Facebooked. And Google Hungout. He YouTubed it all, and even held a bunch of Town Hall meetings, like yesterday’s in the Ottawa inner-city hood of Vanier. Bill Morneau, the Bay Street millionaire tapped to be the new federal finance minister, has been cutting a wide swath through social media to try and connect with the demographic his government cares most about: the moisters.

As you may know, the T2 Lib gang were successful in tapping into a new pool of voters, the Millennials. About two million of them, actually. Smart politics. After all, the kids now outnumber the wrinklies, as the 18-to-30 generation becomes the dominant population group, surpassing the Boomers who still have better music and deeper sex appeal. And no Adele.

The impact on federal finances is consequential. We’ll all see that on Tuesday, March 22nd at 4 pm when Morneau stands up in the House of Commons, drinks eight glasses of water and delivers his maiden budget. The applause from the benches behind him will be thunderous because, well, it’s 2016.

MORNEAU

What does this mean? Simply, the utter repudiation of the Harpercon philosophy which ruled the past eight years and propelled Canada through the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. This new budget is aimed at a new batch of people – those who (a) have never known interest rates higher than three or four percent, (b) who believe society has cleaved into The Rich and The Rest, (c) who put social justice and equality before fiscal responsibility, (d) who like taxes (because other people pay them) and spendy governments, (e) who are totally house-horny, and (f) are way too educated, under-employed and over-entitled.  In short, they love deficits. Which is a damn good thing. Lots are coming.

So the days of austerity, GST cuts and balanced budgets are gone, along with support for the resource sector, paunchy plaid shirts and climate change denial. You’ll see this in spades in the Morneau budget of 2016, ushering in a string of deficits reaching as high as $80 billion by the time the first T2 mandate comes to an end.

Dead are the Liberal election promises of running a $10 billion annual shortfall for a couple of years, in order to stimulate the economy. Since last fall Canada has lost significant altitude – oil and the dollar down, unemployment and household debt up. So the deficits will be thrice that amount. Also dead is the notion of a balanced budget by 2020.  We may never see once again, and certainly not in four years.

So now we know. Morneau said Monday the red ink will be more than $18 billion, even without adding in new spending on infrastructure – anther $10 billion. Just like that, a $30 billion hole. At least we now have a new government consistent with the debt-pickled people who elected it.

But moisters are okay with deficits because people get instant gratification (bigger public spending and largesse), more powerful and activist government (the kids are lefties, after all) and yet the bill is kicked down the road, probably to be paid by rich people. What’s not to like?

On that theme, the Morneau budget will extend the war on the successful. First a new eat-the-rich tax bracket was created to finance a middle-class tax cut (but it doesn’t, since we don’t have enough wealthy people) and next month professional corporations will be targeted. Income-sharing with family members will be in the crosshairs, along with (I hear) tax avoidance through dividends distribution and holdco-opco structures, plus family trusts. Call this the whack-your-doctor tax.

If you doubt it, listen to his words when he said the 1%ers have benefited more than the middle class for the past forty years: “Income inequality is an even bigger challenge in times of economic stress, especially for blue collar workers who tend to be the first to feel the effects of economic downturns.” The fact that Canadians has pushed home ownership levels past 70%, goosed personal debt to 171% of disposable income and shoved real estate values to among the highest in the world even as the economy sags, will be ignored.

Blaming the rich is like blaming the Chinese. It’s politically cheap. It’s demonstrably wrong. But it works.

Consider the official release from the Department of Finance, where the ‘new course’ (big deficits) looks a lot like the old one (big deficits):

With its first budget, the Government of Canada will chart a new course, and signal its intention to adopt a different approach to economic and fiscal policy. At the heart of this approach is a commitment to strengthen the middle class and create conditions for economic growth that benefit all Canadians.

By strengthening the middle class and growing the economy, Canadians who work hard can look forward to a good standard of living, a secure retirement, and better prospects for their children. It also helps to ensure that the government has the resources it needs to lift the vulnerable out of poverty, invest in research and innovation, and provide economic security to all Canadians.

The new government will take action to ensure that economic growth is shared equally with the middle class and those working so hard to join it. In challenging economic times, the government has an important role to play. Now—more than ever—is the time to make investments to build a stronger middle class and foster sustainable, clean growth.

Note the part about the government  ensuring “growth is shared equally with the middle class.” Tom Mulcair must be so proud. Rich people are in for a big Hoovering.

255 comments ↓

#1 Franky Reinhart on 02.22.16 at 5:49 pm

First!!

#2 Mike in vancouver on 02.22.16 at 5:57 pm

When did we last see a balanced budget? The Harper Government(tm) never did produce one. It was all smoke a mirrors, either selling assets, cutting essential spending or using accounting trickery to spread out expenses. Now Christy Clark will be running for reelection with the same promise of a “balanced” budget. Dog help us all!

#3 Canadian on 02.22.16 at 5:58 pm

Meanwhile down south sensible politics (on the left anyway, don’t get me started on Trump) seems to be making a return as Hillary has deflated the Sanders bubble and it on track for the nomination.

#4 Shocked on 02.22.16 at 5:59 pm

Holy cow, this has to be your most conservative post yet Garth. I don’t think you could fit another generalization in there if you tried.

#5 Sacred Cat on 02.22.16 at 6:00 pm

The rich will find a way, the middle class will find an excuse, and the poor will laugh at us all.

#6 Caught In The Grip on 02.22.16 at 6:00 pm

Hopefully a ballooning deficit will sink the $CAD to 55 cents in the coming years.

#7 rawdiswar on 02.22.16 at 6:00 pm

C’mon Garth,

Adele can actually sing and her music is far from the worst pop out there.

With all the borrowing and spending the Libs are going to have to do, won’t this affect our credit rating?

Beware Brain Drain 2.0.

If it’s Trump/Ventura, wife and I will get out as quick as our little capitalist feet will carry us.

#8 hope & ruin on 02.22.16 at 6:01 pm

Just in case anyone missed Morneau’s announcement for liberal budget plans and fiscal outlook. Here’s a quick summary:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KahOD-93D7U

#9 Bill on 02.22.16 at 6:02 pm

Gee Garth, it’s not like the Harperbots ever had a balanced budget. Not once.

#10 cecilhenry on 02.22.16 at 6:03 pm

Well. Making $200,000 a year is not rich.

Not after you spend 15 years in school/training, pay 200,000 in debt and have big responsibility, and lots of extra hours and opportunity cost.

To hell with this parasitism.

Fleecing the productive is a sure way to make the productive disappear or at least foster the parasitic mindset to steal, lie, coerce and destroy. Taxed on the money you earn, then taxed on savings, taxed on investments, taxed on tax.

Government regulation and coercion in Ontario and Canada is just insane. Why work??? WE have communism. The government control wages and incomes AFTER the fact with taxation. The government takes 50% of everything. If you work hard then it is simply given to someone else by force.

#11 Frank on 02.22.16 at 6:06 pm

Eh Harper ran 56B in the hole after the 08 collapse. Our economy is a one trick pony, hard to run a surplus when the world around you doesn’t want that trick. We’ll just have to see if we turn out of it.

#12 ELDONH on 02.22.16 at 6:08 pm

Yikes, be afraid, be very afraid……

#13 Bytor the Snow Dog on 02.22.16 at 6:12 pm

Garth, Garth, Garth!

I’m either late Boomer or early Gen-X, depending on the definition and I totally support these changes. I would be considered a 5 percenter based on yearly family income.

Why do I support these changes? Because supply side, trickle down, enrich the stockholders economics has been a total dismal failure for the majority of society. It’s about time corporations got back to investing money in making good products instead of buying back their own stock options enabling further concentration of wealth.

In other words, it’s time for the investor class to share in the pain. I know you have a vested interest in that not being so, but it’s time.

#14 S.Bby on 02.22.16 at 6:13 pm

T2: keeps the promises he should break,and breaks the promises he should keep.

#15 zedgt87 on 02.22.16 at 6:16 pm

“If you doubt it, listen to his words when he said the 1%ers have benefited more than the middle class for the past forty years: ”

Whats wrong with stating this? Its the truth. the top 1% and .1% have seen their share of the pie increase immensely over the past 40 years while the middle class has completely stagnated. Why is it politically cheap to state the truth ? ?

Granted liberal policies do not help this issue at all, so i guess its cheap in that regard.

#16 PPSEZ on 02.22.16 at 6:16 pm

Why blame current government for all deficit?
Just because they are Liberal?

#17 jess on 02.22.16 at 6:17 pm

ignored by the U.S. Congress
A 1994 Report from GAO Warned Congress That Wall Street Could Explode
http://www.gao.gov/products/GGD-94-133

summarized here
http://wallstreetonparade.com/

#18 james on 02.22.16 at 6:18 pm

“adopt a different approach to economic and fiscal policy”

That made me gag.

It’s the same old same old. Lipstick on the pig.

ALL modern governments are neo-Keynesian. I say ‘neo’ because Keynes believed that governments should save in good times and spend in bad. Modern governments spend like drunken sailors at ALL times. A good example being the dolts in Alberta who were kicked out of office by the NDP.

A truly different approach to policy would be to stop ‘stimulus’ spending, stop meddling in the economy (e.g., CMHC, bank subsidies), and to let the market run its course.

#19 Chopper on 02.22.16 at 6:18 pm

Garth you did not ask my permission to post a picture of my Truck on your Blog…….but then again I am glad I voted for the Cons so it is O.K.

On another note, yall ain’t seen anything yet this T2 Government will go down in history as one of if not the worst Government.

ThroughDOUG is sour dough for Canada it will spoil Canada.

#20 Dennis Wilson on 02.22.16 at 6:18 pm

Surely any reasonable Canadian could scan through government spending in an afternoon and find billions of spending that could be eliminated without a second thought.

#21 acdel on 02.22.16 at 6:19 pm

Good Blog!

Harper like T2 are both idiots. Neocom Harper that added “how much to out debt”? Spent hundreds of millions if not a billion on those stupid “Action Plan” adds that never delivered; lowered the GST where every fricken economist with half a brain told him not to. Harper was most interested in being the President of Canada; he was nuts! Now we have another nutbar who believes the economy will balance itself.

There is no middle class, we are drowning. Every intelligent economist (Google it) will tell you that we are in tough for the next 4 or 5 yrs if not longer; the Chinese economy is in trouble, Europe is a basket case, and the US, a number of states are already in a recession (check out the lasted Bloomberg article), never mind the middle east. It is all a lie, and we all know it……………

I feel better now! Have a good evening all!

#22 The real Kip on 02.22.16 at 6:20 pm

Well, the building trades are looking at another big year. Between the Wynne/Trudeau spending blitz we are looking at full employment, again.

#23 zee on 02.22.16 at 6:20 pm

Under Harper, Canada has a currency that has lost 30-40%, record levels of household debt, and inflated house values… What good is a balance budget(manipulated balance budgets) when it comes with all of this.

I am ready for a different way of managing the economy.

#24 james on 02.22.16 at 6:23 pm

#10

“Making $200,000 a year is not rich.”

Agreed. People conflate income with wealth.

Looking around at Toronto and its condo mania, I really wonder how on earth the average wage earning family manages to get by. Food, transportation, living costs, etc etc. It’s not a particularly cheap city. A lawyer friend of mine was fond of saying that 130k is mere living costs in Toronto for most people.

#25 Ontario Doc on 02.22.16 at 6:25 pm

I am a rich doctor on the menu in the next budget. I am bathing myself in BBQ sauce for the budget so that I taste better when eaten. I need to try and lose some weight first though – I don’t want to be too fatty and contribute heart attacks amongst the 99% that consume me. May not be any of those evil rich doctors left to look after them if we are all eaten.

#26 Atomix on 02.22.16 at 6:26 pm

You’d think the first thing on the agenda to ‘punish’ the rich would be reducing the RRSP cap of $25,000 to $20k while simultaneously increasing the TFSA.

I’d be cool with that. After all, RRSP is a REGRESSIVE program and TFSA is more egalitarian.

#27 IKnow on 02.22.16 at 6:27 pm

Garth

I have problem if the word “entitled” is used as a put down on the young generations who lament they cannot be owners of detached houses in Vancouver and Toronto.

30 years ago when the last batch of baby boomers were ready to be house owners, a nice detached property on the west side Vancouver was just about 6 times income.

Now it is how much? 40 times the income of a new grad may be?

Old timers took it for granted like breathing air.
The same old timers have no right to belittle the lamentation of youths.

#28 highway61 on 02.22.16 at 6:27 pm

they can eat my shorts – plenty of ways to shelter MY money without breaking the law!

#29 Nemesis on 02.22.16 at 6:28 pm

#RedTideBlueTide… #TheMessageRemainsTheSame…

https://youtu.be/Ln2ZjpJOrKE

#30 Tudor on 02.22.16 at 6:29 pm

And yet, for some reason, I and 49% of Canadians would still vote Liberal if the election was held today:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/02/19/forum-research-poll-liberals-would-win-70-of-seats-in-election-today.html

#31 Babbler on 02.22.16 at 6:31 pm

“Income-sharing with family members will be in the crosshairs, along with (I hear) tax avoidance through dividends distribution and holdco-opco structures, plus family trusts. Call this the whack-your-doctor tax.” – Garth

—————————————————————-

I know IT consultants who incorporate and do these very things. They can gross well over $150K depending on their specialty. One guy, who is particularly aggressive with his so-called “business expenses” bragged about paying less than $28K in income taxes a couple of years ago. Is that supposed to be a good thing? Are the Fiberals wrong to be eliminating this nonsense? Or, more accurately, talking about eliminating it.

#32 Rick on 02.22.16 at 6:33 pm

cecilhenry on 02.22.16 at 6:03 pm.

You’re right.

One of the reasons I left the US was because of the Community Organizer and Chief they elected. Now, we, Canada have a Drama Teacher. T2, the white Obama.

Oh, the humanity:)

#33 Bonhomme Carnaval on 02.22.16 at 6:34 pm

Possible solutions:

1) Go on sabbatical. Tap into those RRSPs.

2) Expatriate yourself to a tax friendly jurisdiction, preferably with warmer weather. Save money on winter gear.

3) Start a cash business. On a beach (see solution no. 2).

4) ?

Feel free to add!

Peace

#34 tundra pete on 02.22.16 at 6:34 pm

Along with non balanced budgets will be the “hurt feelings” tax, “I don’t like the way you said that to me” tax, “I’m offended by that ” tax and “I deserve one of those too” tax. Among the other fees and service charges required to be “Politically Correct”.

It must be an equal playing field for all. Everybody has their rights.

Then suddenly the pendulum swings back to the way it should be and they will get so many rights, that they will be beggin’ for a left!

#35 Unhinged Loon on 02.22.16 at 6:34 pm

Garth, would you care to address the discrepancy that now exists between the artificially low interest rates and the government going on a public spending spree financed mostly by debt?

I mean, if they are going to want people to buy Canadian bonds, aren’t they going to have to entice institutions and mutual funds with higher interest rates on government paper?

Will there be a scenario that may force them to raise interest rates regardless of their desire to keep housing safe and inflated?

Thanks in advance.

#36 I'm stupid on 02.22.16 at 6:42 pm

Men today have a 20% less testosterone than 30 years ago. It’s the chemicals in our food and water. So what we’re dealing with now is a bunch of wusses!

#37 MSM-Free Zone on 02.22.16 at 6:45 pm

“…….Simply, the utter repudiation of the Harpercon philosophy which ruled the past eight years and propelled Canada through the worst financial crisis since the 1930s……”
_________________________

That’s rich, really rich. Harper couldn’t balance a chequebook with a straight face to Canadians.

PostMedia suddenly hacked into the Greater Fool today?

Where is the inaccuracy? — Garth

#38 Brian on 02.22.16 at 6:45 pm

#3 Canadian:
“…as Hillary has deflated the Sanders bubble..”

Why are Canadians so prone to groupthink?

#39 Missing the East Coast on 02.22.16 at 6:47 pm

As a disgusted 1%er, I’m actively managing my income below $200K until I can move out of this country, through various mechanisms including unpaid time off and reduced hours. I would much rather the lifestyle benefit of extra time with my family than have to pay more than half to the government!! I’m just not going to give them that.

#40 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 02.22.16 at 6:49 pm

Deficits are appropriate in a low interest rate environment where the economy otherwise sucks. Monetary policy has not worked.

I did sent T2 an email today suggesting he create a very large Strategic Petroleum Reserve to hoover up all that cheap Canadian Western Select. Buying dirt cheap oil now and selling it years donw the road when the AIE says we will be in a big oil deficit position makes sense to me. Smooth out the price for Albertans and counteract the Cartel.

#41 Ronaldo on 02.22.16 at 6:51 pm

”………..drinks eight glasses of water and delivers his maiden budget.”

No wonder he’s so pale. All flushed out.

#42 MF on 02.22.16 at 6:54 pm

#13 Tudor on 02.22.16 at 6:29 pm

First LOL for getting your information from the star.

Second I will never vote liberal again in my life. Last time was for Paul Martin when I was in UNI before I opened my eyes.

MF

#43 Francis on 02.22.16 at 6:55 pm

“Income-sharing with family members will be in the crosshairs, along with (I hear) tax avoidance through dividends distribution and holdco-opco structures, plus family trusts. Call this the whack-your-doctor tax.”

No!, let call it whack tax avoidance that should never be allowed in the first place. Why they should be allowed to do this? The tax avoidance scam been expose and the small % of people that use it will now pay their fair share.

#44 Anthony on 02.22.16 at 6:55 pm

Conservative or Liberal… the Federal government would run deficits either way.

This is why we need Garth Turner to run for PM.

#45 Love my Kia on 02.22.16 at 6:56 pm

There was a reason(s) the cons got the boot in the last election. Finance was one of them.

#46 Brydle604 on 02.22.16 at 6:59 pm

And so it begins,
And the Budget will balance itself!
LoL

#47 joblo on 02.22.16 at 7:03 pm

What the hell is clean growth?

#48 not 1st on 02.22.16 at 7:05 pm

Now Garth, with what you have heard in the rumor mill today, do you really think TFSA are going to stay untouched forever.

If they can change the corporations act which has some powerful business people behind it, then they can mess with TFSAs no problem.

As soon as they is some wealth built up in those TFSA accounts they will come for their pound of flesh.

#49 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 02.22.16 at 7:05 pm

the libs to preside over the collapse of oil, housing and the canadian economy. lol

#50 Ray Skunk on 02.22.16 at 7:06 pm

Ain’t borrowing great? Ontario pays $1bn A MONTH in interest payments on its debt. You know, while interest rates are at a record low. That’s another borrowed $1bn that doesn’t go towards healthcare, the elderly, the homeless, the most vulnerable in society. And we’re not even touching the debt itself, just servicing it.

But that’s OK – let’s just borrow some more and feed it into Liberal-friendly construction firms *cough* Pomerleau *cough* and bullshit “causes” like Bombardier. That’s in addition to the usual vote buying, lack of accountability and scandals. We’re getting Ontario on a national scale now – and there ain’t anything we can do about it. Buttsonmics is here to stay for the next four years.

If you’re anything like me, you’re planning your exit right now. Because one thing’s for sure – the Police, Teachers and public sector at large aren’t going to take any cuts lightly. The piper’s going to want to be paid – and the private sector and those who need the most help are going to suffer for it.

Nationalize Ontario’s debt? That’s probably why Wynne was so eager to campaign for Junior. Her and Sousa are completely bereft of any idea, any clue, any plan. There is no end game.

It’s going to be an epic mess. Of that you can be sure.

And PS – #30 – of course that Liberal-supporting, scandal-forgiving commie rag would come out with those stats.

#51 Ret on 02.22.16 at 7:06 pm

What income levels would define a single person, married couple or family of four as ‘middle class?”

OAS clawbacks start at $73,000 for an individual. Would a working married couple with a combined $146,000 yearly be getting surtaxes because they are no longer middle class? Probably is my guess.

It is fine to talk about taxing $2-500,00 wage earners more but I suspect the reality will be that taxpayers under $100,000 will pay by far the most collectively as a group.

They simply won’t have the loopholes, lawyers and accountants to defend themselves from the CRA.

#52 earthboundmisfit on 02.22.16 at 7:10 pm

Ready for an HST hike? 1%-2%. Faster than the forthcoming weed tax.

#53 youmaybewrong on 02.22.16 at 7:11 pm

I used to vote conservative until I realized I was wrong. The gap between rich and poor is growing ever larger. I do not think there is anything wrong with being rich, however, there is a problem when middle class and the poor are becoming worse off (even when compared with 10+ years ago) Add to the fact that there are many more 2 income households than before and middle class is still losing ground.

Don’t get me wrong, I agree with everything you say about housing being overvalued and the middle class are racking up debts like never before. Part is due to the fact that they have lost ground over the years but they also share some responsibility for taking on more debt than they can afford. However, the banks share responsibility as well giving loans to those who may not be able to afford to pay them back when interest rates eventually rise.

The fact is though, the rich ARE getting richer.. in some cases substantially, and the middle class IS getting poorer every year. If everyone in the middle class who owned their home had decided to rent, the fact is they’d still have less income than they had in the past adjusted for inflation. And the gap between rich and poor is growing rapidly.

Something is wrong, when hardworking families are barely able to make ends meet, are faced with ever increasing debts, increasing costs to send their kids to school to get a head start on life, and have system which favors the rich over the working class.

I guess we should feel sorry for the prospect of the rich having to pay a little more in taxes. booh hoo, you poor rich people.

About the deficits, if you follow the top economists.. I mean the David Dodge’s and the Mark Carnie’s. I would assume they would be the top ppl to listen to when it comes to the economy. They’ve all said that when the economy is in a downturn, deficit spending is the responsible thing for the government to do. Fiscal and monetary policy need to go hand in hand.

The theory of always cutting taxes and limiting government spending if flat wrong. Deficits shouldn’t go on forever, but when businesses are cutting back, it’s the time for governments to take the lead and pick up some of the slack. Once the economy picks up again, then focus on balancing the budget and reducing the level of debt.

I do not understand how always cutting taxes for for the rich stimulates the economny.. I realize the middle class gets tax cuts too and that does stimulate the economy. If you give the rich 1 million more in tax cuts, it goes into the stash of cash. It does not get spent, it does not create jobs, it just increases their wealth. If you give it to the middle class, often the money does get spent and stimulates the economy.

I suggest you visit youtube and follow Elizabeth Warren. She is very sharp and explains things well. Also research the rising gap between the rich and middle class/poor. It changed my mind, it may yours as well.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/gap-between-canada-s-middle-class-wealthy-starting-to-run-away-report-1.2443742

You cannot build a person up by tearing another down. Penalizing success with taxes higher than the 50% already in place accomplishes no societal goal. — Garth

#54 Randy on 02.22.16 at 7:12 pm

Government spending could easily be cut 30% across the board with zero impact, except Cronies would get less.

#55 acdel on 02.22.16 at 7:13 pm

#44 Anthony

Conservative or Liberal… the Federal government would run deficits either way.

This is why we need Garth Turner to run for PM.

————————————————————

Yep, I’ll vote for him! Ok Garth, what do you think?
I think your pup with the new bionic leg would make a good running partner; seriously!

#56 Smartalox on 02.22.16 at 7:16 pm

The irony is that by kicking the debt can down the road about 20 years, all those millennials who don’t pay taxes now will be in their PRIME earning years, and paying the greatest proportions of their salaries in taxes.

They’re the ones who will get stuck with the bills. Not the boomers (who by then will all be long gone) or the Gen Xers, who’ll be easing into retirement.

#57 Millmech on 02.22.16 at 7:19 pm

I don’t believe the doctors will be leaving after the new budget is announced,they will probably do what my cousins vascular surgeon is going to do.He said that after June he will be unavailable for work as he will have made too much money and is looking at buying a winery with a few other specialists that are running the same plan.They will have a less stressful work environment than surgery and the perks seem pretty good.Sucks to get sick in the next few years though.

#58 Shawn on 02.22.16 at 7:22 pm

$30 Billion deficit then…

Is that a lot? Numbers are meaningless without context.

What is that as a percentage of the Budget? As a percentage of GDP?

Is deficit spending bad at this time? Why so?

People have been panicking about government deficits since they were invested some hundreds of years ago.

Yet government debt never needs to be paid back and life keeps getting better and better over the years.

#59 pathcontrolmonk on 02.22.16 at 7:24 pm

Garth, I liked it better when you were less partisan and more self-deprecating, recently I hear Rex Murphy’s voice when I read your blog. More references to Amazonian mistresses and mulleted millenials please!

I refuse to be just your boy toy. — Garth

#60 Linda on 02.22.16 at 7:28 pm

The last time Harper & the C’s ran a surplus was 2007/2008 as per the media. After that, deficits every year where published, finalized figures were available. Apparently finalized budget figures were still pending for the final two years in office before the Liberals were elected. It was expected however that due to the declining economy that the final two years would also end with a posted deficit. It is interesting to note Harper inherited a substantial surplus from the previous Liberal government – which had managed some 7 consecutive surplus budgets in a row before the Conservatives took power. Harper & the C’s however made a bunch of pre-election spending decisions that took a potential multi-billion surplus & turned it into a deficit….. Seems to me that they wanted to ensure that if they lost they were going to hand over an empty wallet & too bad if that wasn’t the best thing for Canada.

#61 Jack Hammond on 02.22.16 at 7:29 pm

The Canadian Liberal party, Justin Trudeau, Bill Morneau and Mr. Green Shift Dion are all going to add $150 billion to the Federal Debt by the end of their first term. 2019 is going to be $800 billion plus year.

They already have gone to Chretien and Martin for advice for more taxes and means testing. They are the kings of doing this in the 1990’s.

Higher taxes and stimulus will not work anyway.

#62 David Stanley on 02.22.16 at 7:30 pm

It will be the Millennials who will have to pay interest for the balance of their young lives on the debts Morneau and Co. are currently running up. Wrinklies like me will only have to pay for the next 20 years max. So go Trudeau go. Spend spend spend. Party time.

#63 Alberta Ed on 02.22.16 at 7:34 pm

Just what you’d expect from a silver spoon socialist like T2. (I’ll bet his poodle finance minister didn’t make his fortune the same way.)

#64 A Yank in BC on 02.22.16 at 7:34 pm

Careful Garth. Any more missives like this one, and the Trotskyite’s now in power in Ottawa will label you as an enemy of the people.

#65 Babbler on 02.22.16 at 7:37 pm

It doesn’t appear that pension splitting is to be eliminated. Maybe it should be.

Why? It is the very definition of fairness. Are you anti-woman? — Garth

#66 Renter's Revenge! on 02.22.16 at 7:41 pm

$30B in new GoC bond issues doesn’t sound like much when you spread it out over 10 million RRSP accounts – it’s only $3000 each. I thought we’re all supposed to be putting 20% of our balanced portfolios in bonds.

#67 Linda on 02.22.16 at 7:45 pm

Addendum to previous post – found a better site that lists all Canadian deficits/surplus (by Prime Minister) from 1963 to 2015. Chretien started with 4 years of deficits, finished with 7 years of surplus. Followed by Martin, with 2 more years of surplus. Then came Harper, who began with 2 years of surplus (looks like the first year was inherited from Martin), followed by 6 years of deficits & as per the site, 2015 was a surplus of 1.9B. Don’t know if that is a finalized figure. Will be interesting to go back to the site in a years time & see if 2015 still shows as being a surplus year.

#68 Panhead on 02.22.16 at 7:46 pm

Maybe this will make a few more boomers see the light and retire. Throw themselves right into a lower tax bracket. Doubt the next generation will hoover up the boomers’ jobs though … maybe for less pay and benefits … and … when the shite really does hit the fan maybe the majority of boomers will be gone anyways. For good …

#69 max on 02.22.16 at 7:47 pm

Like the last time the liberals came to power, maybe its time to move back to the states. Since I was living in the states, I smartly wrote my contract to be paid in U.S. dollars. The nice thing about U.S. living, right along the border, its very cheap. Yet, you can still see Vancouver. Its just like home except you need to go through customs to go to Vancouver. The best of all since the U.S, is a tax treaty country with Canada, REV Can easily makes you a non resident for tax purposes. No more provincial rate. 20% to the Feds regardless of income! People say the Chinese are coming, with the drama teacher and his trained seals in charge, just as many Canadians with money will flee.

At any rate. I have some family friends, they are old now and long retired. The husband worked as a deckhand on the BC Ferries and the wife was a school teacher. They lived off his salary and saved hers. Sold their modest Tsawwassen house they built in 74. Moved to white rock, bought a small RV and live in a modest townhouse. Most of Canada’s millionaires are like these, not living large what people think are millionaires.

Sorry the drama teacher and moron finance minister are shoving the country off a cliff. Millionaire bay street finance guy please the average stock broker makes a million on commissions.

#70 max on 02.22.16 at 7:50 pm

last part meant a million per year on commission. In the stock brokerage business that’s actually pretty mediocre.

#71 common sense on 02.22.16 at 7:52 pm

Can I just bend over now and say to Bill “Another one please sir?” or just send in a pound of flesh quarterly?

#72 Russ on 02.22.16 at 7:55 pm

Oh great!

The Liberals are making a class structure in Canada official government policy. Like they have in Britain and India, maybe.

And fellow Dogs, stop with the “drunken sailor” comparisons! It shows your lack of knowledge. Drunken sailors don’t borrow , they spend their own money.

Try this, “trudeau is spending like a drunken sailor who is using someone’s credit card.”

i.e., a sailor of ill repute.

Cheers, R

#73 Smoking Man on 02.22.16 at 7:59 pm

First a new eat-the-rich tax bracket was created to finance a middle-class tax cut (but it doesn’t, since we don’t have enough wealthy people) and next month professional corporations will be targeted. Income-sharing with family members will be in the crosshairs, along with (I hear) tax avoidance through dividends distribution and holdco-opco structures, plus family trusts. Call this the whack-your-doctor tax.
…………….

They are already getting squeezed by Wynne this is just the other cheek getting slapped.

It will send what little Dr’s we have on a massive exodus down south.

And if it’s as bad as I think it will be, this PHD will be following right behind them.

#74 Lee bow on 02.22.16 at 8:00 pm

Garth, you gotta admit though that this was in large brought upon us by Harpo’s behaviour. It’s not an ” all of a sudden” thing

#75 TRT on 02.22.16 at 8:00 pm

“But moisters are okay with deficits because people get instant gratification ..”

You want to return to the current Boomer Ponzi schemes? Like inflated RE, Stocks, Bonds, Licences that sell for $ on black markets, Oligopolies and manipulation courtesy CMHC, CRTC, etc.??

Id rather live in a true free market capitalistic country rather than a crony corrupt capitalistic country we’ve become over the last 20 years.

#76 Industrial Guy on 02.22.16 at 8:01 pm

“the utter repudiation of the Harpercon philosophy which ruled the past eight years and propelled Canada through the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.”

OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I guess we should thank the Harpercons for putting all that oil in Alberta. Smart move. Harper and the late Minister of Finance completely misjudged the speed of the US recovery which they had gambled on to drag Canada out of the recession without costing us the fortune they were spending in the USA. When that recovery didn’t happen they piled billions onto the Nations credit card.

.. and what about the secret bailout of Canada’s banks made to look like a purchase of mortgages?? Come on …. Very selective memory there bud.

The Harpercons got lucky …. nothing more, nothing less. They didn’t foresee oil prices zooming into the stratosphere.

Sadly, this focus on the oil industry blasted Ontario’s manufacturing sector into rubble.

It’s going to take a long time for manufacturing to return to Southern Ontario. Many of our base industries are gone. Things like foundries, forging, die casting … few, if any are left. We may have a cheap dollar but we have also lost the advantages that economies of scale provided. Many of these firms have long closed and firms like my own are forced to buy these products either from the USA or offshore in US dollars.

#77 observer on 02.22.16 at 8:02 pm

I guess its time for the rich to retire so they can get some!!!!

Infrastructure and house build pops up the GDP but they don’t recreate real jobs which the manufacturing section once did.

Its all smoke and mirrors

#78 definitionofinsanity on 02.22.16 at 8:04 pm

“Simply, the utter repudiation of the Harpercon philosophy which ruled the past eight years and propelled Canada through the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.”

bwahahaha!

We have been propelled so forcefully and skilfully by fiscally responsible conservatives in the last decade that they are no longer in power anywhere in Canada.

Blame millennials, selfies, social media, new voters, personalities, whatever; if the right wing had delivered a prosperity they would still be in power.

Couldn’t be done by slashing budgets and taxes, why would we keep trying that?

Why would you do more of the thing that has just recently failed?

How blind are you to not see how badly this era of conservatism has done?

Bernie and Trump are directly the result of Regan and Bush — Just as Justin is the result of Harper.

You made this bed, now you’ll become elderly in it.

#79 observer on 02.22.16 at 8:06 pm

I’m sure there will be a lineup for government bonds this years.

Mabey they can pay them negative interest rates too and give the savers an “enema”

#80 Sham the Sham on 02.22.16 at 8:07 pm

So the moist millennials think “…the bill is kicked down the road, probably to be paid by rich people.” Ah, the naivety of the young. They will soon find out that the real rich have no intention of paying for anything!

#81 Babbler on 02.22.16 at 8:14 pm

65 Babbler on 02.22.16 at 7:37 pm

It doesn’t appear that pension splitting is to be eliminated. Maybe it should be.

Why? It is the very definition of fairness. Are you anti-woman? — Garth

————————————————————

Hell no. I really like women! I would like to keep company with multiple women if my wife would let me.

I actually collect from a defined benefit pension plan while I am also continuing to work. I’m lucky that my DBPP pays me more than the industrial average wage in Canada. However, why should I be able to split income with my wife and thus benefit from a lower tax bracket when someone else, with earned income, can’t do so as well? That’s fairness?

#82 joe on 02.22.16 at 8:17 pm

garth i keep telling you to read the pinch by dave willetts.

employed wrinkles are unable to use technology, slow, often wrong but can no longer learn, over confident and over paid. like to talk on the phone trying to get others to do their work.

youth are underpaid, can type fast but cant spell, are often wrong but can be taught(if you have the time), spend way too much time texting.

the root of the youths argument is this, unions discriminate against them. instead of laying of nurses or teachers the have hiring freezes. this seems reasonable but is actually discrimination. 2 qualified people want to do the same job but the one who wants to do it for less isn’t hired.

the feds report their mean age of government employees, i assure it is discriminatory in that it greatly under represents 20-40 yeat olds. and when u look at the pay scale of government employees by age the disparity is worse. the 20-40s earn less relative to 40-65 when compared to 1970 to 2000.

#83 learningfromyou on 02.22.16 at 8:17 pm

Thank Garth for this post.

For those who does not know the socialism.

When you try social equality, the lazy ass will push harder his ass against the ground, and the hard worker get tired and one day just shrugged and gave up.

It becomes like a boat pulling its anchor from the sand until the pistons came out from the engine.

#84 Strathcona on 02.22.16 at 8:23 pm

There’s lots of Liberal lovers on here tonight. Which is odd, because Garth was from another party. I’m trying to recall a country where massive government debt and an entitled population ended well, and nothing comes to mind.

To quote Margaret Thatcher, ” the problem with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money “.

#85 Cici on 02.22.16 at 8:23 pm

#17 radiswar

Yeah, but…she is like the best, as in the absolute pinnacle, that those poor Millenials have got…which is pretty sad–especially since her last album totally sucked.

After her it’s Gaga and Swift…probably nice ladies but seriously pale comparisons to the geniuses of the 70s and 80s.

#86 Estrella on 02.22.16 at 8:27 pm

He will humbly were moccasins as he announces that the evil rich will be sacrificed on the alter of inequality.

Why work hard? You can just coast like the middle class and expect the government to help you.

Wait to the battle cry of the masses who will head for the exit in droves. And the next time your at the emergency, and you have to wait 4 hours to be seen, well thank you government and just suck it up.

#87 Westvan on 02.22.16 at 8:27 pm

Blaming the rich is like blaming the Chinese. It’s politically cheap. It’s demonstrably wrong. But it works.
—–
Truth sounds like hate to those that hate truth

#88 Sheane Wallace on 02.22.16 at 8:28 pm

#31 Babbler on 02.22.16 at 6:31 pm
“Income-sharing with family members will be in the crosshairs, along with (I hear) tax avoidance through dividends distribution and holdco-opco structures, plus family trusts. Call this the whack-your-doctor tax.” – Garth

—————————————————————-

I know IT consultants who incorporate and do these very things. They can gross well over $150K depending on their specialty. One guy, who is particularly aggressive with his so-called “business expenses” bragged about paying less than $28K in income taxes a couple of years ago. Is that supposed to be a good thing? Are the Fiberals wrong to be eliminating this nonsense? Or, more accurately, talking about eliminating it.

————————-
Many of these ‘schemes’ are legal.
Many are arguably legal.
What is wrong with family taxation in first place?

If the liberals target professional corporation – the lawyers and the doctors they are done. Finished before they started.

They will probably recoup few hundred mullions in highly controversial cases, lawsuits will drag for years and the actual cost will be negative not to mention the exodus south.

The libtards are barking the wrong tree.

#89 Shawn on 02.22.16 at 8:29 pm

Ontario Deficits

#50 Ray Skunk on 02.22.16 at 7:06 pm
Ain’t borrowing great? Ontario pays $1bn A MONTH in interest payments on its debt. You know, while interest rates are at a record low. That’s another borrowed $1bn that doesn’t go towards healthcare, the elderly, the homeless, the most vulnerable in society. And we’re not even touching the debt itself, just servicing it.

****************************************
That does seem like a LOT even without any context.

Today’s debt was partly borrowed at interest rates of years ago that were higher so its not all about todays low rates.

To give context there are 13.6 million people in Ontario. So $12 billion per year interest is $882 dollars per capital per year.

But don’t they just borrow new money to pay the interest rather than take it out of the healthcare budget?

And what was the money borrowed for? If it had not been borrowed then either it could not have been spent or taxes would have been higher.

If not spent who would have gone without what or what projects would not have been built.

When it comes down to it, when faced with an extra $100 of taxes or borrow the money and pay $3 (3%) in interest in perpetuity most people don’t have the extra $100 and so will say go ahead and borrow and I will pay the $3 in perpetuity.

The principal of the debt will never be paid and will be rolled over forever. It works. Get used to it.

#90 Estrella on 02.22.16 at 8:29 pm

in know, missed the” you’re” in the emergency, Not “your.” Hate when i make a grammar mistake like that, but oh well i’m sure a moist kid won’t know the difference.

#91 Cici on 02.22.16 at 8:31 pm

So Garth, what happens if the rich hide their money offshore through foreign bank accounts and various forms of money laundering?

What will Canada do 20 years down the road from now when defecits have reached epic, Greece-style proportions, the rich can’t/won’t save the rest of us, the millenials are middle-aged and still haven’t even paid down half their mortgages, and there’s no manufacturing sector left because it was all shipped to Mexico or elsewhere?

At what point will we know that CDN$ and CDN ETFs should no longer be part of a diversified portfolio? All warning signals please, unless I’m being melodramatic?

#92 ender on 02.22.16 at 8:34 pm

#57 Millmech on 02.22.16 at 7:19 pm
I don’t believe the doctors will be leaving after the new budget is announced,they will probably do what my cousins vascular surgeon is going to do.He said that after June he will be unavailable for work as he will have made too much money and is looking at buying a winery with a few other specialists that are running the same plan.They will have a less stressful work environment than surgery and the perks seem pretty good.Sucks to get sick in the next few years though.

That’s what I’m going to be doing. Either that or work 3 days/week. I was working 6 days/week but what’s the point.

#93 Mark on 02.22.16 at 8:35 pm

It would be much easier to have sympathy for the >$200k club if most of them made their money without government assistance or government protection of their industry in some form or another.

However, sadly, this isn’t the case in Canada. The >$200k club is largely comprised of people associated with government-protected occupations or directly working for government itself.

Maybe two tax rates are appropriate here. One for people who could prove their income came purely from the private sector. And another for those on the government payroll either directly or indirectly.

I know, completely unworkable. And seriously, if that $1M/year stockbroker decides to work a little bit less hard, what’s the problem? There’s lots of young up-and-coming stockbrokers who certainly could use more business. If high taxes precipitated a medical professional shortage, the public would apply more pressure on government to train more doctors and rationalize training requirements. At some level, high taxes on the rich are an invitation for the rich to either invest more aggressively (ie: in tax deferring, yet desperately needed equity and/or by borrowing to invest), or to work less to give others in the economy a chance to participate. I don’t buy the argument that the economy will suffer with higher taxes on the ‘rich’ at all. The 1950s-1980s featured dramatically higher marginal rates than even being proposed, yet there was no crisis of lack of growth like we see today.

If anything, I’d argue that the current regime of relatively low taxes on high “income” earners discourages investment at the margin. As the incremental benefit of equity, the incremental benefit of borrowing for investment, is somewhat less than experienced in a high tax environment. Most of the good tax avoidance strategies are also good ‘growth’ strategies for the economy more broadly.

#94 Hawk on 02.22.16 at 8:39 pm

Canada seems to be like a guy driving around a mountainside road at high speed and a passerby seeing this yells “hey Mac, there’s a cliff a mile down”…………and hearing this the guy’s response is to slam down the GAS PEDAL!

Go T2 & Moron: make Canada = Venezuela

#95 Herb on 02.22.16 at 8:42 pm

Re. surpluses and deficits,

Linda must have been referring to this chart at #60 and 67, but if someone has a better link, please post it –

http://www.cbc.ca/news/multimedia/canada-s-deficits-and-surpluses-1963-to-2015-1.3042571

#96 For those about to flop... on 02.22.16 at 8:48 pm

If the Liberals and the Metrosexual Messiah are so pro milly,then how long to the Millie’s work out that the TFSA rollback will hurt them the most.

We are talking about a generation that supposedly will have a low percentage of pensions and such and yet the Messiah decides to handcuff them by not encouraging them to save any more than $15 a day.

The Cons didn’t help themselves by not moving it up to 7500 first, so it did not become an election football.

Yeah, Millie’s can be annoying ,but being annoying does not mean that they don’t deserve a decent chance at a respectable retirement.

M41BC

#97 Balmuto on 02.22.16 at 8:49 pm

Great article on the follies of the current Australian housing market. The local 60 Minutes segment is a must-watch. Jonathan Tepper in the interview claims almost half the mortgages in Australia are interest-only:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-22/one-sign-australia-s-housing-market-is-due-for-a-2008-moment

#98 Victor V on 02.22.16 at 8:49 pm

Andrew Coyne: Liberals launch the ‘not-our-fault’ defence as deficit forecast balloons to $18.4 billion

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/andrew-coyne-liberals-launch-the-not-our-fault-defence-as-deficit-forcecast-balloons-to-18-4-billion

#99 Mark on 02.22.16 at 8:50 pm

last part meant a million per year on commission. In the stock brokerage business that’s actually pretty mediocre.

Don’t know about that. The RBC-branded broker guy that some in our family has dealt with for the past 25-years has the rank of “Vice President”. According to Glassdoor, a RBC “Vice President” averages out at roughly $190k in compensation.

https://www.glassdoor.ca/Salary/Royal-Bank-of-Canada-Salaries-E3358.htm

I kind of think you’re probably guilty of the offense, committed almost universally by Fort McMurray “independent contractors” during the boom, of talking of gross revenues, not net pre-tax compensation to the employee.

A million gross sounds about right, given a projected 50%/50% split between compensation and net margin. And the sort of compensation that office staff would be paid to support a “Vice President”-ranking broker.

As far as independents go, not many even left in Canada (compliance and regulatory burden is way too costly for sole proprietors), but almost every one I’ve spoken to over the years has been resentful of even the compensation plans available at the big bank-affiliated outfits.

Of course, there’s always superstars, in every profession, but to say that a broker is ‘mediocre’ if they don’t net a million dollars a year is way out of whack with Canadian reality.

#100 Victor V on 02.22.16 at 8:54 pm

John Ivison: Batten down the hatches, Liberals are full steam ahead toward a sea of red ink

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-batten-down-the-hatches-liberals-are-full-steam-ahead-toward-a-sea-of-red-ink

#101 The real Kip on 02.22.16 at 8:55 pm

I must say the landscape looks better in Ontario with Trudeau in Ottawa and Kathleen Wynne at Queen’s Park.

Unions have fought hard for fair wages, pensions and benefits as well as our collective bargaining rights and that work has paid off with the defeat of Tim Hudak and then Stephen Harper.

#102 understood by few on 02.22.16 at 8:58 pm

#26 Atomix on 02.22.16 at 6:26 pm
You’d think the first thing on the agenda to ‘punish’ the rich would be reducing the RRSP cap of $25,000 to $20k while simultaneously increasing the TFSA.

I’d be cool with that. After all, RRSP is a REGRESSIVE program and TFSA is more egalitarian.
—————————

Bahahahahahahahahahaha. It doesn’t matter if that’s true (I’m in total agreement with you), BUT (big but) the truth doesn’t matter. It’s perception that matters. The beliebers think TFSA is for the rich, then that’s the prevalent truth and it shall be pandered to. Even Elizabeth May panders (to poor effect), in hopes of favourable poll results and better approval ratings. Facts be damned.

@#43 Francis

You have no clue. I’ll most likely be affected. As an entrepreneur I’ve taken risk. My colleagues make less, but have the comfort of job security. The benefit for my risk is a slightly favourable tax environment. None of them complain that it’s unfair because they too could take the risk. Most can’t stomach it.

Take away the tax benefits from my small business and the recruiters that have been after me from the US are extremely tempting. Yes, my average tax rate is quite low for my income (as far as Canadian income tax goes), but it’s a lot more than the $0 Justin and his cohorts will get if I move south or elsewhere. The “fair share” from your myopic perspective won’t happen.

This is pandering to the people who cry “not fair” and want to stick it to those that have more than them. You had the same opportunities as me, maybe more. I paid my own way through University, I slogged through some horrible jobs making a pittance. Why would I fight to grow a business and bring more revenue into Canada only to get taxed even more when I do well?

Tax benefits exist for a reason. To make certain risks more palatable. Dividend’s being taxed lower encourages investment. Small companies being taxed lower encourages people to take a risk and start companies. Complaining about these “unfair” tax advantages is the same as saying the TFSA is for rich people (simply because you don’t understand it or can’t figure out how to take advantage of it yourself).

My job is portable. My wife’s job is portable. We have a lot of options on where to live in the world. This is the new global economy. If Justin pushes this path be prepared for the brain drain. A big human capital haemorrhage. But hey, he’ll have the approval of the middle-est of the middle class! Woooooo. Yay. Get a couple terms in office so he can really do a number on Canada.

#103 Dana Gerb on 02.22.16 at 9:02 pm

Everyone’s in for a big hoovering. This plan is taken verbatim from the Obama administration, and how did that work out, millions cut from unemployment and disappear, no health care for millions cut off medicare because they can’t afford the premiums, net new taxes on everyone. Trudeau Libs took the ‘middle class meme’ from the Obama campaign forgetting there is no middle class in Canad aside for the civil service. This new deficit signal means a lower dollar, so the kids get screwed on travel, zirp rates perpetually so the seniors get screwed, oh yeah a brave new world of poverty. All the money is going into corrupt unions? This can’t end well

#104 slim on 02.22.16 at 9:03 pm

“By strengthening the middle class and growing the economy, Canadians who work hard can look forward to a good standard of living, a secure retirement, and better prospects for their children. It also helps to ensure that the government has the resources it needs to lift the vulnerable out of poverty, invest in research and innovation, and provide economic security to all Canadians.”

__________________________________________________________

It should read, if you work hard and get ahead, you can expect higher taxes for you and your children. Promising a “chicken in every pot” works everytime.

#105 JP on 02.22.16 at 9:05 pm

More rate hikes coming this year in the US, no recession like the tin foilers will have you believe.

#106 the Jaguar on 02.22.16 at 9:06 pm

18 billion in red ink and holding professionals like doctors and medical professionals hostage? Why would they be so naïve to think these people will sit back and take it? They don’t have to do that. They can go practice elsewhere. USA. Highly skilled people can do that. The wait times are going to get even longer than they are now. What a lot of nonsense this talk is of the so called middle class. Would those be the same people who are so heavy in mortgage and consumer debt they can’t dig themselves out? In debt up to their eyeballs as a result of not being able to resist the urge to use credit to buy monster homes and flatbeds full of meaningless stuff from big box stores like Costco for instant gratification? Many of whom have lost or are in the process of losing their jobs? How is going after the thin layer of wealthy people, many of whom arrived at their comfortable state the old fashioned way (they earned it) going to rescue that situation? This ridiculous Liberal government, lead by an unqualified, egotistical, entitled brat forever seeking his next media opportunity. If I have to see one more photo of him with his jacket off and sleeves rolled up revealing those hairy arms I am going to puke. Put your suit jacket on and try to show a little decorum befitting of the office. I don’t think he is emotionally balanced. It’s only a matter of time until it shows itself. Meanwhile the propaganda machine rolls on, detracting attention away from the real issues and root cause of the problems. Lambs to the slaughter. Or sheep to be more exact. And we haven’t hit bottom yet. Nowhere near to that.

#107 MF on 02.22.16 at 9:12 pm

#53 youmaybewrong on 02.22.16 at 7:11 pm

“Don’t get me wrong, I agree with everything you say about housing being overvalued and the middle class are racking up debts like never before.”

“About the deficits, if you follow the top economists.. I mean the David Dodge’s and the Mark Carnie’s. I would assume they would be the top ppl to listen to when it comes to the economy. ”

-Stopped reading at Mark Carney. He is an architect of this failed ZIRP policy.

MF

#108 The dude on 02.22.16 at 9:14 pm

I am in the middle bracket but why the hell should the government help the most irresponsible group. Most middle class are worse with money than the poor and rich. Most rich are good with their money unless your lucky to have gotten old money and the poor are either ex- middle class or others with bad luck and bad family situations.

Sent from my spy-phone

#109 Ret on 02.22.16 at 9:15 pm

#65 “It doesn’t appear that pension splitting is to be eliminated. Maybe it should be.”

I’m doing our income taxes. We’re seniors. We’re special. We can split our pensions.

I broke the next tax tier by $148 dollars which was split to my wife’s form. Net benefit $-4. Minus four dollars.

Update. More T4/5’s added. $1903 now split. Benefit by splitting $274, $137 each. However, I still paid more than that in additional taxes on the $1903.

Isn’t paying more net tax good for Canada and for others who have less?

The basic fairness of tax splitting is hard to argue against. Tax splitting, partial or full, should be made more available to all Canadian families IMHO.

#110 hope & ruin on 02.22.16 at 9:17 pm

#101 The real Kip on 02.22.16 at 8:55 pm

Unions have fought hard for fair wages, pensions and benefits as well as our collective bargaining rights and that work has paid off with the defeat of Tim Hudak and then Stephen Harper.
_____________________________________

the sad part is that union workers think they still have a voice in politics. They don’t. They are being used to the benefit of big government and environmental movement.

I don’t mean the ‘union’ workers in civil service. I mean the low wage guys working in manufacturing industries. They all get mailed monthly newsletters telling them to hate harper by their champagne socialist leaders. I know, I get the newsletters for a previous tenant.

Some things in life never change though. The lowest rung gets stepped on the most.

#111 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 02.22.16 at 9:18 pm

the canadian economy is toast. time to move on. the usa is doing well. full employment, comfortable inflation and increased spending. enjoy!

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/02/23/us/politics/us-economy-still-on-the-rise-white-house-report-finds.html

#112 AB Boxster on 02.22.16 at 9:19 pm

Well it’s not like some of us haven’t seen this before.

T1 came into power based upon nothing more than flamboyance and wealth. After 14 years of pathetic Liberal mismanagement and deficits thet were run out of office by the Conservatives in 84.

Massive deficits, poor economy,ridiculously high interest rates, huge cuts to provincial transfers in attempt to bring the budget and economy back into some sense of balance.

And here we go again with T2.

I could care more but if the millenials want to go through this mess again they are welcome to it.
Except that this time individual debt is huge, mortage debt is massive, and there is no 3rd world to grow us out of the mess.

Oh and the mobility of the rich is far greater than it was in the past, so good luck trying to milk that cash cow. The great economy to the south of us will welcome the best and most talented from Canada with open arms.

Personally I’m looking forward to 10% interest rates once again.
All the millenials, and ‘Just Society’ seekers(remember that noise) who voted for this ‘new’ brand of economics will be slaughtered when the bill comes due.

And all the boomers will just chuckle silently having seen it all before.

#113 max on 02.22.16 at 9:22 pm

I don’t think the average Canadian realizes how easy it is to get into and live in the states. As a visitor or on business you can stay for a year without a visa. Some Canadians believe its shorter, but its loss of provincial healthcare coverage that makes it short. Not U.S. immigration. Oh but how do you afford a house? The big Canadian banks all offer U.S. mortgages for Canadians to buy U.S. homes. What about work? There is tons of business options that is legal without a visa. A friend of mine lives in LA, she is a marketing consultant. Oh Canada doesn’t tax global income if you are in a tax treaty country like the U.S. For U.S. tax you don’t need a social security number, you put NAFTA trader instead. Oh, you can get a non work tax number at any U.S. social security office.

Also some U.S. banks now offer accounts for Canadians, but its a scam because their credit interest rates are very high.

Anyway, the above is basic flee the drama teacher 101. Google NAFTA visas and see how easy it is. Highly recommended for those living on passive income.

Selling a family house in Vancouver, flee and buy near Blaine or Lynden. Without BC medical, doctors are very inexpensive, so don’t worry about medical. Since we have a dollar sliding further in the toilet, the border lines are nil. Living in Washington State is no different then BC, no state income tax, low cost of living. Visiting Vancouver, is a few minutes more then if you lived in Langley.

Sit back relax and watch the Vancouver real estate crash and your friends get taxed to death.

#114 hope & ruin on 02.22.16 at 9:32 pm

#101 The real Kip on 02.22.16 at 8:55 pm

>pensions and benefits
________________________________

oh. my mistake. I didn’t realize you were talking about the public sector unions. Ya. They’ve done great work.

As far as squeezing every last drop out of an employer they are killing it. These guys deserve a raise or at least some more kickbacks from Wynne.

#115 Bikers for President Trump on 02.22.16 at 9:37 pm

Garth, fellow biker bro, and your fellow biker blog dogs…. come join us as we ride for freedom from these crazy commies… we’ll clean this crap up

#116 SWL1976 on 02.22.16 at 9:44 pm

Gone are the days of balanced budgets???

Yes they have been gone for quite some time now, and it has been quite some time since we have had a true leader who could balance the books. However, by design I think the days of balanced budgets are in the rearview mirror. Until we get a mass awakening and a true understanding of the root cause of all our problems I suspect more red ink and our money will keep flowing up, up, up.

They want it all.

Now for music. Maybe I have a biased opinion, but Gen X has the the best music hands down. Now for the true music connoisseurs out there; here are some fitting lyrics for today’s post

…and so we go / on with our lives / we know the truth / but prefer lies / lies are simple / simple is bliss / why go against tradition when we can / admit defeat / live in decline / be the victims of or own design / the status quo / built on suspect / why would anyone stick out their neck / fellow members / club we’ve got ours / I’d like to introduce you to our host / for he’s got his / and I’ve got mine / and we’ve got decline…

#117 Smoking Man on 02.22.16 at 9:51 pm

Got to say Trump is brilliant. He’s in it to win it.

Ted Cruz is a tea party favorite, Tea party wants to audit the Fed. Cruz skipped town every-time the vote was cast.

So Trump comes out today, Audit the Feb. Boom now he gets half of Cruz’s supporters.

Who the hell is advising Trump? Perfect Herdonomics, I would like to meet him one day.

#118 Bob on 02.22.16 at 9:56 pm

#10 cecilhenry
“Well. Making $200,000 a year is not rich.”

Boo effin hoo. Give your head a shake.

http://bit.ly/1d0DwX4

How many standard deviations is that?

#119 ww1 on 02.22.16 at 9:59 pm

#113 max

Without BC medical, doctors are very inexpensive, so don’t worry about medical.

==========================

Wow. This comment is so far off-base it’s almost criminal. While a doctor visit in the USA might be cheap, any other hospital procedure will cost you an unbelievable amount of money. Think in terms of $4K for a one hour visit to the ER (personal experience) or $75k+ for procedures that Canadians take for granted (more personal experience – covered by my company’s health care plan). And “Obama Care” for boomers can easily run $10K per month for a couple not yet qualified for US Medicare.

Inexpensive? Dream on.

#120 Name on 02.22.16 at 9:59 pm

Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.
— Winston Churchill

#121 Topsy-Turvy on 02.22.16 at 10:05 pm

#15 zedgt87 wrote > Whats wrong with stating this? Its the truth. the top 1% and .1% have seen their share of the pie increase immensely over the past 40 years while the middle class has completely stagnated. Why is it politically cheap to state the truth ? ?

It is just a rhetorical garbage (us vs them) with statistical sprinkles on the top (like saying that Olympic winners enjoy medals and money prizes without mentioning that they are different people almost every Game). You could imagine that the policy will be diverting capital from productive use and punishing _any_ growth (green/blue/whatever color will be popular next)

#122 45north on 02.22.16 at 10:10 pm

youMayBeWrong: Something is wrong, when hardworking families are barely able to make ends meet, are faced with ever increasing debts, increasing costs to send their kids to school to get a head start on life, and have system which favors the rich over the working class.

I’d say you may be disappointed. When you look at the actual tax savings you’ll get under Justin Trudeau:

The roughly 1.6 million families making about $48,000 to $62,000 will see their tax bills trimmed by, on average, just $51, while those making $62,000 to $78,000 will save $117.

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/the-truth-about-justin-trudeaus-tax-cuts/

I’d say you will be disappointed. Angry. And when you get the bill you’ll move to some place where anger is a permanent companion. I mean a place in your mind.

#123 BS on 02.22.16 at 10:13 pm

It was obvious from the beginning T2 was going to be a disaster. From balanced budget to a $30 billion deficit within 4 months.

The surfs just don’t get it. Guess who will benefit from the infrastructure spending? It is not you. It is the 1% who own the construction companies and other companies who will receive that money. They pay temporary foreign workers $12 per hour and bill out at $80 per hour plus.

Then the surfs get to pay back all that borrowed money in the future when the 1% are retired living in the Caribbean and the TFWs have gone back home.

#124 StandardDeviation on 02.22.16 at 10:14 pm

Why must we protect public sector jobs at the expense of absolutely everything else? Alberta seems to believe that maintaining the public sector at the expense of provincial budget limitations is imperative so too does our T2 Federal electees.
I wish we could clone Lee Kwan Yew cause we sure need him or his ilk now.

#125 Smoking Man on 02.22.16 at 10:16 pm

Think of Money or investment as a magnet. The left side of it repels it away. The right side attracts it.

Socialist you want more money for everyone, find a way to shrink the labour pool, it puts a force on upping wages. Lower taxes and regulation and let the market do the lifting. Sit back and enjoy, not that you are not doing that anyway.

But sadly the mind of a socialist is fried even with good excersice and nutrition.

They are failures in there own lives, their only hope for some form of dignity is taking down the ones that made it using logic and hard work.

That’s why it never works. Attention Doctors, get out now before the wall goes up.

The right mind builds walls to keep riff raft out.

The left builds walls to keep enterprising individuals trapped in.

I’m calling on T2 to try and redo NAFTA to keep pros from leaving.

It’s race against time doctors. The fact that you are still here probably means you suck anyway, the good ones are already gone.

Don’t matter UCC tells me Ontario is on the hunt for bobble heads, you know, doctors who’s head goes from side to side with every word they speak.

Russel Peters knows what I’m taking about.

#126 Nemesis on 02.22.16 at 10:19 pm

“I refuse to be just your boy toy.” — HonGarth

#ShoNuffAin’tWhatItUsedToBe…

https://youtu.be/O-a8kLtJSJ4

#127 Suede on 02.22.16 at 10:21 pm

Well, other than move to the USA what can a rich person do?

If of opco hold Co structures will be targeted.. What next, capital gains and eligible dividends. Oly moly

#128 Alex Greene on 02.22.16 at 10:22 pm

“So the days of austerity, GST cuts and balanced budgets are gone…”

That is an excellent point! The time periods under Harper conservatives where they managed to balance the budget *should be* measured in “days”, not “years”, otherwise they’d look pretty pathetic… and dare I say it… incredibly socialist.

#129 Millmech on 02.22.16 at 10:23 pm

#92 Ender
Don’t forget the moa who will be laid off or put to part time,less home renovations,less new cars,these professionals don’t usually hoard their money,they spend it on upkeep.Who are the people who be benefit from this the most are the middle class who will take it on the chin,bullet meet foot!

#130 Smoking Man on 02.22.16 at 10:24 pm

#107 MF on 02.22.16 at 9:12 pm
#53 youmaybewrong on 02.22.16 at 7:11 pm

“Don’t get me wrong, I agree with everything you say about housing being overvalued and the middle class are racking up debts like never before.”

“About the deficits, if you follow the top economists.. I mean the David Dodge’s and the Mark Carnie’s. I would assume they would be the top ppl to listen to when it comes to the economy. ”

-Stopped reading at Mark Carney. He is an architect of this failed ZIRP policy.

MF
……………………
…………………….

Ah MF if you only knew who I knew grasshopper.

My buddy fired Carney when Goldman shut down a CAD division. My buddy is the smartest economics dude on bay street, next to me, but I’m in camp Long Branch so yes he’s got bay street. Those veins on his nose and the rosy cheeks are trophies of his wins.

He’s amazing.

#131 That guy you hate on 02.22.16 at 10:29 pm

I could write a book debunking every single one of the speculative things you claim, Garth, like your implication that GST cuts and balanced budgets go together, when in fact the budget went to shit since the GST was cut and was never balanced since.

But I’d rather just sit here and sip your tears, you old reactionary. I think it was Plank that said “science advances with every death”. I think society is the same way as science. It is only when the old, set in their ways, finally kick the bucket that society can advance. Can you imagine your grandfather’s grandfather’s grandfather from pre-magna carta days being ok with ANYTHING about modern society? Such it is with you as well. Such it will be with the millennials in another 50 years when their view of the world becomes rigid and intolerant. But for now, history is passing you by. You’re literally the old man sitting on the lawn yelling at the kids.

As for your implication that T2 and the “moisters” are waging class warfare, a theme you strongly imply in nearly every post, I submit that it is your financier class that is waging said class warfare, and for the past few decades you’ve been winning decisively. So much winning, in fact, that it unbalanced the economy and this is now leading to unstoppable social and political upheaval. And not just here. We’ve done it politely, with one election, and one pretty face. But even in your dream land America, Trump is dominating all other contenders and Hillary is having a tough time just hanging in there against a self-described socialist. Imagine that.

Times are changing, and you’re sitting in the lawn yelling at the kids. What’s worse, is you’re using profanity. Your writing style is getting really nasty Garth, you’re attacking and generalizing large groups of people and it’s very off-putting. I wish you’d act more like a Canadian and less like a rich guy from Texas.

Personal attacks are the hallmark of a losing argument, bravely anonymous Internet guy. — Garth

#132 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.22.16 at 10:36 pm

There’s lots of Liberal lovers on here tonight. Which is odd, because Garth was from another party. I’m trying to recall a country where massive government debt and entitled population ended well, and nothing comes to mind.

To quote Margaret Thatcher, ” the problem with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money “.
—————–
the problem with idiots like you is that eventually you run out of stupid quotes.

#133 nonplused on 02.22.16 at 10:43 pm

I brought my son to the local McD’s for lunch as we were running errands and it’s a PD day (do teachers ever work???) Guess what? In the short time since we’ve last been there all but 2 tills are gone replaced by a muffin display case, and you order now using a touch screen unless you need to pay cash. As predicted, they are front running Nutely’s $15 per hour plan.

#134 Smoking Man on 02.22.16 at 10:43 pm

#131 That guy you hate on 02.22.16 at 10:29 pm
I could write a book debunking every single one of the speculative things you claim, Garth, like your implication that GST cuts and balanced budgets go together, when in fact the budget went to shit since the GST was cut and was never balanced since.

But I’d rather just sit here and sip your tears, you old reactionary. I think it was Plank that said “science advances with every death”. I think society is the same way as science. It is only when the old, set in their ways, finally kick the bucket that society can advance. Can you imagine your grandfather’s grandfather’s grandfather from pre-magna carta days being ok with ANYTHING about modern society? Such it is with you as well. Such it will be with the millennials in another 50 years when their view of the world becomes rigid and intolerant. But for now, history is passing you by. You’re literally the old man sitting on the lawn yelling at the kids.

As for your implication that T2 and the “moisters” are waging class warfare, a theme you strongly imply in nearly every post, I submit that it is your financier class that is waging said class warfare, and for the past few decades you’ve been winning decisively. So much winning, in fact, that it unbalanced the economy and this is now leading to unstoppable social and political upheaval. And not just here. We’ve done it politely, with one election, and one pretty face. But even in your dream land America, Trump is dominating all other contenders and Hillary is having a tough time just hanging in there against a self-described socialist. Imagine that.

Times are changing, and you’re sitting in the lawn yelling at the kids. What’s worse, is you’re using profanity. Your writing style is getting really nasty Garth, you’re attacking and generalizing large groups of people and it’s very off-putting. I wish you’d act more like a Canadian and less like a rich guy from Texas.

Personal attacks are the hallmark of a losing argument, bravely anonymous Internet guy. — Garth
…………..

Obviously you have no mind. What is it about people who don’t enjoy a big mac and fries, never kissed the pavement drinking a few over the line.

That almost rhymes.

Listen up you commie, T2 is Greece 2, hope you don’t have a daughter, cause the daughters in Greece sell the sweat spot for bread now. Slices not even the loaf.

#135 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.22.16 at 10:46 pm

#120 Name on 02.22.16 at 9:59 pm
Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.
— Winston Churchill
——————-
Please see my post #132

#136 Ace Goodheart on 02.22.16 at 10:48 pm

Real estate “Flip Gate” in Vancouver. That’s strike one. All we need now, is some sort of story to break in Toronto (or Vancouver) about mortgage fraud. Then we know, that an overheated market might be showing signs of cracking. Usually when you have fraud in the market, it is a sign that things are about to implode.

#137 MF on 02.22.16 at 10:50 pm

#130 Smoking Man on 02.22.16 at 10:24 pm

Your buddy made the right move. Probably another reason why Carney had to skip across the lake and go try to destroy England with more bad policies.

MF

#138 Jaymo on 02.22.16 at 10:52 pm

Middle Class? That’s me? I’m so screwed. $10 a month tax saving whoaaaa, yessss…but no income splitting, a new Carbon Tax, the much awaited Clap and Trade (Freudian slip!). Whoopdy dooo! Give with the left and take away in spades with the right. How I love Liberal economics.

Why should I care about deficits and debt? The government, at all levels, don’t seem to give a damn so why should I. After all, I am debt free.

But I do love the new financial smoke and mirrors catch phrase: “the debt ratio to GDP” is going down…yay. We’re okay then? Right? Uh right? It’s going down! Right?

#139 Roland on 02.22.16 at 10:55 pm

Garth:

The Conservative gov’t under Harper was responsible for the largest federal deficits in Canadian history. That gov’t was irresponsible in its handling of fiscal matters.

Moreover, that Conservative gov’t also implemented a series of policies that contributed to the deepest levels of personal indebtedness in Canadian history.

Stephen Harper was all about gorging on debt.

But this isn’t a partisan matter. The new gov’t, taking over in a recession, is going to embark on another redink fest.

A couple of other things here:

1. The class division in our society is a fact. You might like it, you might dislike it, but you cannot deny it. That’s capitalism. Deal.

2. Bear in mind that nobody pays higher taxes on income than the wage and salary earners. Capital gains and dividends are much more lightly taxed. Investors have no right to complain.

#140 Millennial Realist on 02.22.16 at 11:09 pm

But still, most would prefer T2 to anything the Harpercons offered. The polls don’t lie.

Let’s face it, the neocon era has been the biggest, most fraudulent batch of lies and incompetence when it comes to economic management.

What total evil, stupidity, and idiocy we have lived through. Harper created the most horrific real estate bubble in our history, one that will likely soon bring down our whole economy.

“….propelled Canada through the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.”

Hardly, Garth. The Harper neocons put Canada on a drug induced mortgage spending binge that merely dulled our sensations and common sense.

It will not end well.

Conservatives, you have no one but yourselves to blame for anything you dislike about T2 and the economic reality that will become more apparent as we face it.

#141 MF on 02.22.16 at 11:11 pm

#112 AB Boxster on 02.22.16 at 9:19 pm

This^

I often go by what my parents think and say about Canadian politics and economics. Both are early boomers born in Toronto who grew up and worked in this country until retirement (mom retired a lot earlier to take care of me and my brother). They saved as much as they could and ended up with a good chunk, house bought in 1992 in cash, and have 7 figure investments even while raising 2 kids. They have seen all the ups and the downs before.

What I get from them is:

-Housing is way overvalued and way over priced. Both saw friends get destroyed in 1990.

-Can’t stand T2 and his fluff, and both were fans of PET the first. See right through the laughable “change” platform (or any other of his policies). Change the channel/page whenever T2’s face appears anywhere. P’ed off about income splitting/TFSA changes.

-Still believe all these high end BMW’s and Mercedes are bought by “rich” people, which I think shows how much credit/debt usage has skyrocketed in the last 5-15 years. They always bought cars (usually used) outright.

-Believe interest rates will go up to 8% in the future at some point.

I look at the difference between them and my generation, who is totally clueless. The past provides a window into the future. How can anyone actually believe T2’s ideas are 1) novel 2) different 3) will actually work…. is beyond me.

MF

#142 MF on 02.22.16 at 11:14 pm

#140 Millennial Realist on 02.22.16 at 11:09 pm

Yeah but did you ever read an article in The Star or the CBC when Harper was in power that was positive? Me neither.

And Harper ruled the country for 10 years.

Make your own conclusions.

MF

#143 Bubbly in auzzie on 02.22.16 at 11:19 pm

The Canadian coming up soon
https://youtu.be/j_ktN_h7-J4

#144 Trojan House on 02.22.16 at 11:27 pm

If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.

So where do I sign up for my welfare cheques?

#145 this is ridicoluous on 02.22.16 at 11:35 pm

this is ridicoluous

house prices are up 30% since last year and liberals are creating 200% more inflation that promised

what you’ll do with this blog if house prices in 2017 will be double than 2015?

with the hyperinflation in house prices in first 2 months of 2016 – we might be there by JUNE

#146 140 Millennial Realist on 02.22.16 at 11:37 pm

read #144 this is ridicoluous

it appears your biased election mantra (what the heck is T2) screwed your whole generation – just watch the next 6 months hyperinflation in house prices

next time, vote NDP :) :) :)

#147 Steerage Bilge on 02.22.16 at 11:59 pm

Butts is the real driving force behind T2… carbon taxes for all

https://twitter.com/gmbutts


#134 Smoking Man on 02.22.16 at 10:43 pm

#131 That guy you hate on 02.22.16 at 10:29 pm
I could write a book debunking every single one of the speculative things you claim, Garth, like your implication that GST cuts and balanced budgets go together, when in fact the budget went to shit since the GST was cut and was never balanced since.

But I’d rather just sit here and sip your tears, you old reactionary. I think it was Plank that said “science advances with every death”. I think society is the same way as science. It is only when the old, set in their ways, finally kick the bucket that society can advance. Can you imagine your grandfather’s grandfather’s grandfather from pre-magna carta days being ok with ANYTHING about modern society? Such it is with you as well. Such it will be with the millennials in another 50 years when their view of the world becomes rigid and intolerant. But for now, history is passing you by. You’re literally the old man sitting on the lawn yelling at the kids.

As for your implication that T2 and the “moisters” are waging class warfare, a theme you strongly imply in nearly every post, I submit that it is your financier class that is waging said class warfare, and for the past few decades you’ve been winning decisively. So much winning, in fact, that it unbalanced the economy and this is now leading to unstoppable social and political upheaval. And not just here. We’ve done it politely, with one election, and one pretty face. But even in your dream land America, Trump is dominating all other contenders and Hillary is having a tough time just hanging in there against a self-described socialist. Imagine that.

Times are changing, and you’re sitting in the lawn yelling at the kids. What’s worse, is you’re using profanity. Your writing style is getting really nasty Garth, you’re attacking and generalizing large groups of people and it’s very off-putting. I wish you’d act more like a Canadian and less like a rich guy from Texas.

Personal attacks are the hallmark of a losing argument, bravely anonymous Internet guy. — Garth
…………..

Obviously you have no mind. What is it about people who don’t enjoy a big mac and fries, never kissed the pavement drinking a few over the line.

That almost rhymes.

Listen up you commie, T2 is Greece 2, hope you don’t have a daughter, cause the daughters in Greece sell the sweat spot for bread now. Slices not even the loaf.

#148 Chris on 02.23.16 at 12:01 am

Meh – what would the Cons or Dippers have done had they won with the promises to balance the budget. This issue is systemic, not caused by the current govt and they are doing what they were voted in to do. Gee, Garth, maybe Morneau reads your blog. Since you dont like what hes proposing, what exactly would you do given the circumstances……. pretty easy to ref the game sitting in your living room isnt it. So many armchair quarterback blog dogs. Hey, heres an idea – why not end past government pensions – all in favour….why isnt your arm up Garth…oh right.

#149 Marco on 02.23.16 at 12:04 am

It’s hilarious how this blog has turned into a whine fest about life noobs not being able to afford a home in prominent parts of Van or TO. Give your head a shake and go smoke another leftie, ya leftie.

On another note, taking on debt with a sound business plan for an expected ROI isn’t a bad thing. Not sure what the Lib government really has planned for the debt but this country is in a shit storm slump and has depended on crude for way too long. Look at Chemical Valley in Sarnia, ON. Citizens there have been waiting for rumours of project X, shutdown Y or company Z to lift the economy for at least 30-40 years. It’s a sad shame and I can only hope the Lib’s are going to at least give a glimmer of hope there is something better out there.

Garth, please give us a blurb on REIT’s.

Thanks,

Marco

#150 Steerage Bilge on 02.23.16 at 12:15 am

Snoopdog’s not so sure about Bill either.. where’s the new pot laws dude!!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ca9wf7kWcAAFswx.jpg:large

#151 Bmc on 02.23.16 at 12:21 am

The biggest myth is that the rich don’t pay their fair share, we already have a graduated taxation system, and yes they can better take advantage of legal tax loopholes, but they generally live in more expensive higher taxed homes, buy more expensive higher taxed cars, their higher incomes allow them more discretionary spending, which generates a sweet 13% Hst in Ontario, boy would I love to make a guaranteed 13% on my money! They will find new ways to protect their incomes, many will just take time off instead of passing over the higher tax threshold, some will leave the country, most will have smart accountants find tax loopholes, the downside is that they will probably reduce discretionary spending, generating less of that sweet 13 for the government
Back in the days when the great GST was imposed on the Canadian people, it was touted as the tax to end all taxes, prices would drop because manufacturers would no longer be taxed, income taxes would drop, the government would be flush with cash, able to shower us all with generous social benefits…….. but that’s not what happened is it, government spending and cost of government balooned, it seems the more they took in the more they waste, (see ontario government) and now here we are in the land of never ending spending and the need for new and exciting revenue tools coming soon, with promises of prosperity for all, I can’t wait, this time it will be different, I just know it will, they know what’s best for me and my money,
I do know this, if I had been able to consistently earn 13% on my money through my lifetime, I would be a very very rich man today, and yet the governments that share in 13% of virtually every transaction are running massive deficits and planning even more, which brings us to biggest problem facing all taxpayers………
Governments have moved beyond fair taxation and into the realm of confiscation, if not checked, boomers today may be the last generation to experience true democracy,freedom,independance and wealth

#152 Shame on Me on 02.23.16 at 12:57 am

Why is the Moroneau Trudeau Wynne budgets all so eerily similar…massive debt and escalating taxation a midst a backdrop of hyperinflation?

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/andrew-coyne-liberals-launch-the-not-our-fault-defence-as-deficit-forcecast-balloons-to-18-4-billion

#153 Mark on 02.23.16 at 1:09 am

“The Canadian coming up soon
https://youtu.be/j_ktN_h7-J4

Mandatory watching for all greaterfool blog dogs, IMHO. Thank you for posting!

#154 Dispatches from Under the Bridge on 02.23.16 at 1:38 am

I have obtained a ten second video that outlines the upcoming budget. You can see and hear it here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tO5sxLapAts
It appears they have it mostly all figured out.

#155 SquareNinja on 02.23.16 at 2:00 am

The current Liberal government is keeping all its promises and is helping Canada gain back its former (i.e. before Harper) reputation around the world.

Of course someone driving a pickup truck would’ve voted Conservative.

#156 Frank on 02.23.16 at 2:04 am

You cannot build a person up by tearing another down. Penalizing success with taxes higher than the 50% already in place accomplishes no societal goal. —

So what’s the magic percentage.

These arguments are always religious ‘tax the rich more’ or ‘lower taxes on job creators’. They’re always relative. So >50% is bad but 49.5% is acceptable? 15%?

Seriously, instead of a bunch of rhetoric I’d like to hear a well-reasoned answer for the optimal tax structure.

#157 Frank on 02.23.16 at 2:06 am

Let’s face it, the neocon era has been the biggest, most fraudulent batch of lies and incompetence when it comes to economic management.

You need to grow up and get some perspective. Look at Zimbabwe, the Weimar Republic, the Soviet Union, Argentina circa 1990’s etc. If you want to see leaders that screwed their countries you’ll need to look further than the Conservative Party of Canada.

#158 Often Wrong Turner on 02.23.16 at 2:30 am

Yet again you are suffering from the delusion that canada is a legitimate country. 2016 canada is nothing more than a product for sale to the highest bidder and the colour of your passport is irrelevant.

70% of all wealth is inherited so the ‘success’ as you put it is being injected into an egg.

When will the young wake up. Imprison their parents and execute their corrupt politicians.

Canadians are the laughing stock of the world.

#159 Austerity vs. Stimulus, Class Equity on 02.23.16 at 2:30 am

Firstly, the paragraph beneath the Morneau image…priceless and classic Garth…too funny/witty.

Secondly, austerity did little for Canada under Harper and look at what it is doing in the EU…mediocre growth.

Time to try something else (stimulus) and I believe this is what the people voted for.

Thirdly, upper corporate management wages and compensation are way out of whack with blue collar wages…time to claw that wage gap back. True, fiscally a pittance, BUT it is SYMBOLIC and this gives hope to the average working day person that their voice is being heard about inequities like Board’s voting upper management high compensation packages for mediocre performance and the excuse is that of being wage competitive to retain talent.

Even a hardened investor knows the above is bull tweed – just look at the TSE this year (and I bet none of their Executive Management will have their pay clawed back based on performance). Nothing more than the rich boys/girls club voting themselves a bigger piece of the pie thinking the rest of the people are stupid and asleep at the wheel.

This is what democracy is all about.

Garth, not everything can be condensed to $ and cents.

#160 jane 24 on 02.23.16 at 2:35 am

I now apologise unreservedly to all my old Italian relatives. I said over the years that they should invest their savings rather than burying them in empty paint pots in the garden or under the mattress. Who is laughing now?

The only good money does indeed turn out to be hidden money. The mantra of ‘you can only trust the family and never the govt of the day’ turns out to be manna for life!!

You want financial advice, ask your local elderly Italian.

RRSPs and that other post-tax saving one are public pots of money that T2 can pick at will any time.

Certainly let’s all be poor together is the govt siren call. Let’s all suffer equally.

#161 The red tide - Realties.ca on 02.23.16 at 4:34 am

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/02/22/the-red-tide/ […]

#162 Kamilapea on 02.23.16 at 4:59 am

I appreciate the irony of CN Rail cutting a $5-million cheque for T2’s Syrian refugees at the same time they have hundreds of employees laid off due to a decline in freight volumes especially considering CN Board Chairman Robert Pace -likely a one per-center given the holdings of his Pace Group- worked in T1’s PMO.

#163 Crazyfox on 02.23.16 at 5:15 am

“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change.” – Leon C. Megginson, Professor of Management and Marketing at LSU

No one likes tax increases, rich or poor. No one likes change that costs them personally, but seriously. When groceries rise by 20%, who’s hurt more?

I’ve got an ear for the rich, they are as equal in terms of true worth as the next individual beside them. They pay more taxes by volume than any other demographic and by their influence should have a voice and do but lets look at past government performance for a sec.

The Harper government ran $170 billion in debt over 10 years, (well, the last 8 really) for an average annual deficit of $17 billion. The Cons did this while oil was worth North of $80 for 6 years. There’s nothing shiny about that. However, GDP grew from $1.310 trillion to $ 1.996 trillion in Q3 of 2015 according to the govy of Canada. What this means is that while Harper’s numbers were dismal, public debt to GDP ratios of which government bond investors pay big attention to, actually dropped.

Now… there’s a big difference between nominal and real GDP numbers and PPP is worth a strong mention (and that’s off the rails with the loonie in the 70’s) but what matters to institutional investors more than any other indicator is public debt to GDP but it doesn’t stop there.

Canada has 3 layers of government (federal, provincial and municipal) and they should be counted as a whole along with levels of taxation and revenue. Only then will one truly know the current state of finances with any nation (like how much more room is there to raise or lower taxes or raise/lower revenue as an example, investors need to know where the boundaries lie to establish risk).

Sound complicated? It is. Which brings us back to the question of whether or not it will be easy for Canada to run deficits or not. Can we borrow on the cheap? Is Canada considered a low risk or something else? And the conversation inevitably comes back to public debt to GDP ratios.

While 20, even 30 billion dollar deficits seem high, if GDP growth can outpace the growth of debt or in simple terms, if public debt to GDP ratios fall, credit is easy. Call our finance minister lefty, red, commie, socialist, boring, whatever, as long as growth offsets or beats the pace of debt, credit is easy and it makes sense to borrow in challenging times. As long as…

And if GDP growth isn’t there or falls? Credit will become more expensive. Already, the U.S. fed chair has said she will raise rates 1% a year until there is a downturn. That’s a quarter point a quarterly. Expect these increments. Credit will become more expensive regardless of whether public debt to GDP ratios rise or fall so it makes great sense to borrow now!!! (Assuming your terms are 10 years or longer, naturally) And don’t think for a minute our newly minted finance minister doesn’t know this.

Please readers, take stock of what this will do to real estate and please note that this is the most predictable course on interest rates for the next 2.5 years (and what this will do to GDP as well). Do I need to mention what impact rising rates in U.S. treasuries will do to credit conditions on long term debt on silly things like mortgages for the entire western world? And here, I should get to Purchase Power Parity and U.S. empirical economic market share expansion through a stronger dollar (Canada’s current PPP? Not so much) but I won’t. Self explanatory right? All the more reason why rates on U.S. treasuries are going up.

This new Liberal government was partly elected on the premise that they would offer growth. If they can do that, I honestly don’t mind them borrowing $30 billion annually over the next 2 years. If they can’t do that, credit will come at a cost none of us, rich or poor, will want to afford and they will either cut spending or raise taxes or run up large deficits or all three. With no growth or God forbid, negative growth say perhaps from real estate blowing up in everyone’s faces triggered by rising rates, it won’t matter what they do, no one will be happy and there really won’t be much anyone can do including government but ride it out until things change for the better.

Megginson is right. Its not about strength or intelligence but about one’s ability to adapt to change. Oil and base metals are in the basement. Long term credit is going to become more expensive for everyone including governments and if one can’t adapt to this sea of change, prepare to be swept away with the tide.

#164 For Canada on 02.23.16 at 5:47 am

Obama’s legacy attack on oil maybe cause Canadian banks to collapse. Will Junior stand up to the Black Buffoon or will he and Sophie takes turns blowing him under the table?

http://business.financialpost.com/news/canadas-banks-could-be-forced-to-raise-equity-cut-dividends-if-oil-prices-keep-sinking-moodys-warns

#165 bladderly love on 02.23.16 at 6:20 am

Morneau stands up in the House of Commons, drinks eight glasses of water and delivers his maiden budget.-Garth”

Must have a strong bladder…

#166 hope & ruin on 02.23.16 at 6:53 am

#152 Shame on Me on 02.23.16 at 12:57 am
Why is the Moroneau Trudeau Wynne budgets all so eerily similar…massive debt and escalating taxation a midst a backdrop of hyperinflation?
_____________________________

I’d add McGuinty to that list and let you play the “find the common factor” game.

#167 jimbo on 02.23.16 at 7:03 am

Re: new small business taxes. Any predictions on whether the new rules will be phased in starting next year, or retroactive to start of this year? If the latter maybe I’ll start a grassroots movement with fellow consultants and the doctors to propose impeachment.

#168 Kevin on 02.23.16 at 7:27 am

So the days of austerity, GST cuts and balanced budgets are gone

I’ll give you one thing, Garth, it sure took some guts to make such an outrageous proclamation. The days you describe were gone 8 years ago. The GST cut was in 2008. The last surplus/balanced budget we had was also 2007/2008. And no, the pathetic $1.9 billion “surplus” last year doesn’t count, because it was a) an election year, and b) merely accounting slight-of-hand.

It’s incredible that you would have the audacity to now accuse Trudeau of running a river of red ink when he hasn’t even announced his budget yet, and while your esteemed Harper ran deficits as high as $50+ billion/year during his reign.

Or did you forget that some of your readers know how to Google?

When they do they’ll find the recent Con deficits, horrible as they were, resulted largely from the GFC. The ones about to be announced will come from increasing the size and scope of government. Quite the difference. — Garth

#169 Brian on 02.23.16 at 7:31 am

Social media is abuzz.

The Millennials on Reddit, Facebook, Twitter, blogs, etc are seriously clucking about the potential implementation of MINIMUM INCOME, aka “Mincome: Guaranteed Income, Basic Income (BI).

For those who have not heard, the basic idea is that welfare, EI, CPP, OAS, and all other social programs will be dismantled and replaced with a Basic Income for everyone. The number currently being tossed around is $18,000 a year. EVERYONE gets $18K … yup…free money. But for every dollar that you earn you give back 50 cents until you have reduced the Basic Income to zero. And it would all be administered by CRA.

Here’s what the millennials appear to believe:

– The cost of giving everyone a Basic Income will be less than the costs associated with administering all of the programs that it replaces like welfare, EI, OAS, CPP, etc.

– Once everyone has a Basic Income, crime will plummet because no one will need to commit crimes to pay for life.

– People will willingly drag their asses to work because working is fulfilling and a couple living won’t want to sit on their butts while living on $36K a year. Basic income will turn lazy people into hard workers because they don’t have to be at work, they want to be at work..

– Basic Income is necessary because Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) will put everyone out of work (just like computers were going to put us all out of work in the 70s).

– Having a basic income will convert criminals into good people who won’t need or want to commit crimes. Drug dealers will have no reason to deal, that sort of thing.

– Health care costs will drop because those in poverty will be able to eat and live better due to receiving a basic income.

Main stream media has been reporting on it.

Have you been following this Mr. Turner?

It’s a failed 30-year-old idea. Chances of success this time are zero. — Garth

#170 prairiegopher on 02.23.16 at 7:33 am

A quote from Corner Gas regarding the liberals “Jackasses.”

#171 Herb on 02.23.16 at 7:50 am

#143 Bubbly in auzzie,

thank dog we have a CMHC in Canada!

Oh, wait …

#172 Aaron on 02.23.16 at 7:57 am

I just don’t get it, of all the terrible pop ‘artists’ produced in the last decade and you pick on Adele?

#173 pbrasseur on 02.23.16 at 8:09 am

In the US Federal debt service is about 700$ per US citizen, states have relatively little debt in the US.

In Canada public debt service (26G) for the federal gov. only is already 700$ plus per citizen in Canada.

And that’ s without counting the provinces, there, add another 700$ to 1000$ of debt service per citizen depending on the province (Quebec alone is over 1000$ per head and Ontario is racing to join it…)

On top of that Canadian households are THE most indebted in the G7, far more than US households.

All that’s with less productivity, far less fiscal margin and less economic growth potential.

In Canada we live beyond our means to say the very least, in fact this economy could be compared to a credit mirage!

Now knowing all this you explain to me how this T2 government is not being totally irresponsible!

#174 TurnerNation on 02.23.16 at 8:35 am

Today’s battlefields are densely populated cities under control. Their goal is a genderless drugged out programmed race of sub slaves.
Maybe 40% of commuters are plugged into programming – earbuds and ‘smart’ phones. Non thinking and following a script seem in the screens.

Conformity. Only convos allowed on travel, real estate, Netflix shows. Anything else is way out there conspiracy talk.

Daily CBC website reports on tearing down gender. Many ways to be a boy. Handbags and dresses are the way to go. Our heros and stars on TV play along
Miley and Brittney turned into shaved head robots before our eyes. Not kidding. Babble from lady Gaga-googoo. Get it? Dumb and controlled. Like us.

A multi pronged attack is well under way on us.

Massive cultural re programming playing out daily.

Middle east bombed to ruins. To get those who did sept 11. Then it was They hate our freedoms. Then it was because He’s killing his own people. Then it was So little girls can go to school.
Now it just is no excuses. We’ve been softened.

National post Saturday front page had pictures of bombs all over it. But here at home we have a ‘Zero tolerance’ policy wink wink. Shall we be saved?

#175 fancy_pants on 02.23.16 at 8:46 am

When government takes control over the economy, it takes control of the means that determine our ends. The government then decides whose ends are to be served. It will do anything to keep it, even pilfering the wallets of those to whom it was entrusted to serve by spending those dollars on securing future votes (aka. immigration).

Socialism always starts with rainbows, unity and fairness. But it always, without exception, ends badly. Pope John Paul II went so far as to say that socialism “does violence” to the human soul.

Until it is your wallet being hijacked, you won’t understand.

#176 drunk citizen on 02.23.16 at 8:50 am

So PM talks about being fair, but puts his nannies on taxpayers payroll.

#177 Smoking Man on 02.23.16 at 8:59 am

T2 Upping the deficits. I hear there is a line up at T2 office, slime sucking green energy peddlers.

That’s where you money will be wasted tax payers. If there was a business case for it, free enterprise would have done it already.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-23/trudeau-drops-campaign-promises-and-goes-all-in-with-deficits

#178 Bottom Feeder on 02.23.16 at 9:01 am

I’m tired of hearing about help for the middle class. What about us lower class folks. We have feelings too!

#179 DJIM on 02.23.16 at 9:08 am

Glad to see you’re keeping an open mind :)

#180 Balmuto on 02.23.16 at 9:13 am

Teflon. Our banks are Teflon:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-23/bank-of-montreal-profit-rises-6-8-after-buying-ge-finance-unit

#181 Slo on 02.23.16 at 9:19 am

No one’s going g to talk about how nice it is to have a finance minister who actually tries to communicate with people, instead of ducking reporters? At least this government doesn’t shy away from bad news, like the head in the sand “it’s not a recession” cons.

I’d personally settle for a complete overhaul of our taxation system, but whaddyagonnado?

I have strong suspicions the libs are going to forecast a huge deficit, then with the upswing of oil which is bound to come, take credit for the much smaller debt.

#182 Rational Optimist on 02.23.16 at 9:20 am

123 BS on 02.22.16 at 10:13 pm

“It was obvious from the beginning T2 was going to be a disaster. From balanced budget to a $30 billion deficit within 4 months.

The surfs just don’t get it… Then the surfs get to pay back all that borrowed money in the future when the 1% are retired living in the Caribbean and the TFWs have gone back home.”

Then it’ll be “Serf’s up, dude” for the 1%, right?

#183 DodgedBullet on 02.23.16 at 9:20 am

You know how to rile a crowd, Garth.

Granted the conservatives can bathe in the light of a well managed Canadian response to the GFC (although was it really the Cons who presided over the banking regulations that kept our banks from true harm?). The matter that this blog addresses (normally) is the financial illiterate being led into a personal debt swamp by conservative policy. Was it not the Conservative government that increased the remit of the CMHC? All this is to say, you certainly know how to rile a crowd up. I like it.

#184 A Canadian Abroad on 02.23.16 at 9:23 am

#139 Roland on 02.22.16 at 10:55 pm ” Bear in mind that nobody pays higher taxes on income than the wage and salary earners. Capital gains and dividends are much more lightly taxed. Investors have no right to complain.”

I have to disagree in part. I believe that investors pay more tax than your typical wage and salary earner. Those that are investing are usually the HIGH wage and salary earners and pay top rate tax rates.

Capital gains and dividends are more lightly taxed because of the risk investors take to GROW the businesses that employ typical wage and salary earners.

Raise the tax the investors and you won’t have a growing job base or economy.

#185 blue crab herb grass on 02.23.16 at 9:26 am

#76 Industrial Guy on 02.22.16 at 8:01 pm
Sadly, this focus on the oil industry blasted Ontario’s manufacturing sector into rubble.

I think that is a bit of a stretch, but since we are touting accomplishments, let’s give credit where credit is due … did it ever cross your mind that perhaps your Wynnie rainbow party has routed Ontario manufacturing? don’t like the effects, stop voting in left wing gov’ts. bite the hands of employers enough and they go to greener pastures.

speaking of green, on the upside, at least we will soon be the greenest province as nobody can afford to turn on lights anymore. maybe you can make some t-shirts and join winnie in the pride parade for that accomplishment.

kisses and rainbows

#186 Penny Henny on 02.23.16 at 9:39 am

#25 Ontario Doc on 02.22.16 at 6:25 pm
I am a rich doctor on the menu in the next budget. I am bathing myself in BBQ sauce for the budget so that I taste better when eaten. I need to try and lose some weight first though – I don’t want to be too fatty and contribute heart attacks amongst the 99% that consume me.
//////////////////////////////////////

There is nothing wrong with saturated fat.

#187 Alberta Shrugged on 02.23.16 at 9:46 am

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/scripps-hgtv-tops-billion-dollars-868679

Moisters like their HGTV

#albertashrugged

#188 The Other Chris on 02.23.16 at 10:00 am

Doctors are really get whacked from both sides. Ontario has been hitting them with fee decreases and caps for the last two years (apparently many are seeing >10% decreases in gross billing over the last two years). And now the Feds are going after their tax structures.

My guess is it won’t work. Some will reduce their hours, others will bail south, and some level of government will be forced to up doctors’ wages to compensate. There’s only so much blood you can get out of the stone.

(That being said, I’m not too fond of the opsco-holdco holding structures that have become popular in recent years.)

#189 Iconoclast on 02.23.16 at 10:03 am

Some of the real “rich” of this country are those who retire with full pensions at 55.
Which, these days, is pretty much just government workers.
Makes me ponder my life choices.

Imagine, some good money in the pocket and some time left to enjoy it.

#190 Iconoclast on 02.23.16 at 10:05 am

#84 Strathcona on 02.22.16 at 8:23 pm

> To quote Margaret Thatcher, ” the problem with Socialism
> is that eventually you run out of other people’s money “.

But as it turns out, you can put this off a long, long time if you just keep
printing your own.

#191 cramar on 02.23.16 at 10:10 am

#27 IKnow on 02.22.16 at 6:27 pm
Garth

I have problem if the word “entitled” is used as a put down on the young generations who lament they cannot be owners of detached houses in Vancouver and Toronto.

30 years ago when the last batch of baby boomers were ready to be house owners, a nice detached property on the west side Vancouver was just about 6 times income.

Now it is how much? 40 times the income of a new grad may be?

Old timers took it for granted like breathing air.
The same old timers have no right to belittle the lamentation of youths.

—————-

We have the right to tell you, that if you want a house that bad, then move to a place where housing is affordable. It’s not rocket science!

#192 Alistair McLaughlin on 02.23.16 at 10:13 am

@ #76 Industrial Guy .. and what about the secret bailout of Canada’s banks made to look like a purchase of mortgages??

It wasn’t secret. And it wasn’t “made to look” like a purchase of mortgages – it was a purchase of mortgages. $108 billion of them. All CMHC-insured, so there was no additional risks to the government. And all mortgages had been initiated before the financial crisis when interest rates were higher, and therefore the government was able to borrow money at a lower rate and purchase mortgages paying a higher rate. The banks gained nothing, but they were able to boost their cash reserves so they could keep lending, as was the intended purpose of the action.

As for “secret”, this action was discussed and approved by the All Party Finance Committee in the House of Commons, the minutes of which are all available in Hansard. You’re pedaling a myth on par with the 9/11 conspiracy nutters. If there really was a “secret” transfer of over 100b to the banks, don’t you think the Opposition would have made something of it? Or the OAG? And please don’t bother me with links from the Tyee or Rabble.ca that “prove” your point, I will not read any of them. I have already looked into this and confirmed to my own satisfaction that the Insured Mortgage Purchase Program was exactly that. And given their relative acquiescence in the matter, all political parties and the OAG agree with my interpretation of events.

#193 Moller on 02.23.16 at 10:21 am

The investigation of real estate flipping in BC begins!
http://www.vicnews.com/national/369805871.html

#194 Crazyfox on 02.23.16 at 10:29 am

http://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2684184158

Craig Alexander makes some excellent points in the vid on deficit spending. Its well worth a watch, check it out!

#195 Charles on 02.23.16 at 10:32 am

#130 Smoking Man on 02.22.16 at 10:24 pm
#107 MF on 02.22.16 at 9:12 pm
#53 youmaybewrong on 02.22.16 at 7:11 pm
“Don’t get me wrong, I agree with everything you say about housing being overvalued and the middle class are racking up debts like never before.”

“About the deficits, if you follow the top economists.. I mean the David Dodge’s and the Mark Carnie’s. I would assume they would be the top ppl to listen to when it comes to the economy. ”
-Stopped reading at Mark Carney. He is an architect of this failed ZIRP policy.
MF
……………………
…………………….
Ah MF if you only knew who I knew grasshopper.
My buddy fired Carney when Goldman shut down a CAD division. My buddy is the smartest economics dude on bay street, next to me, but I’m in camp Long Branch so yes he’s got bay street. Those veins on his nose and the rosy cheeks are trophies of his wins.
He’s amazing.
________________________________________
For a fellow that had 20 year tenure on the trading floor you epitomize the foulest of attitude towards your fellow man with your false bravado. Conversely we are woefully aware that you have spent the last 20 years on the gambling floor at your casino each and every weekend. That is believable. Marc Carney would have directly reported to Robert Rubin and I am most confident he would associate with the likes of you. Keep up the good work Mr. Ponzi.

#196 Herb on 02.23.16 at 10:33 am

Excuse me, Sir, but a couple of personal questions if you don’t mind –

Are you the Garth Turner who used to write a blog devoted to the practice of “digital democracy” until close to 2009?

And didn’t that blog result in him being kicked out of the CPC in 2006, after which he sat as an independent MP for six months, then joined the LPC and sat as a Liberal MP until defeated in the 2008 General Election?

And wouldn’t that Garth Turner be an important cabinet minister in the T2 Government if one Michael Ignatieff had not pussy-footed around accepting him as the Liberal candidate for Caledon, after which he quit politics and became a financial adviser?

That Garth Turner bashed Conservative policies (for cause, I even joined in!), but he did not then see cause to decry Liberals as congenital tax-and-spend financial idiots.

So my reason for asking is that I have difficulty recognizing that Garth Turner in the current Garth Turner who seems to have trouble seeing the political forest for the ideological trees.

‘Ideology’ for you is praising those who agree with you and criticizing those who do not. For me ideology is remaining true to your principles, whatever the trendies of the day may happen to label it. — Garth

#197 Sheane Wallace on 02.23.16 at 10:41 am

BANNED

#198 AfterTheHouseSold on 02.23.16 at 10:41 am

#124 StandardDeviation
“Why must we protect public sector jobs at the expense of absolutely everything else?”

Because they are that governments built in voting base who won’t bite the hand that feeds them. By keeping and increasing the government sector they ensure more and more votes and also those of their voting age dependents that have a vested interest to keep mom or dad employed.

Heaven help any government that dares to tamper with the unspoken agreement. Look what happened in Ontario when NDP Bob Rae brought in unpaid days off and suffered the wrath of the unions. You will see all kinds of cuts to services and none to the bloated public sector unless with plump payouts and incentives.

During elections in Ontario, we also have the unions, under the guise of the ‘Working Families Coalition’ pouring money into anti Conservative advertising. By not mentioning the Conservatives by name, but blatantly advertising against their campaign policies, they are able to side step the rules of money spent on election advertising.

Add to this the less obvious benefit of being named the ‘Liberal’ Party which loosely translates to ‘freedom’ in other languages. To new immigrants and refugees who have known only tyrants, they may be willing to reward the ‘freedom’ party with their votes so expect to see more of Trudeau and Wynne glad handing their way around airports.

#199 Renter's Revenge! on 02.23.16 at 10:42 am

#186 Penny Henny on 02.23.16 at 9:39 am
#25 Ontario Doc on 02.22.16 at 6:25 pm
I am a rich doctor on the menu in the next budget. I am bathing myself in BBQ sauce for the budget so that I taste better when eaten. I need to try and lose some weight first though – I don’t want to be too fatty and contribute heart attacks amongst the 99% that consume me.
//////////////////////////////////////

There is nothing wrong with saturated fat.

—————————————————–

It’s only crime is maybe tasting too good.

#200 Sheane Wallace on 02.23.16 at 10:44 am

BANNED

#201 Herb on 02.23.16 at 10:47 am

#192 Alister McLaughlin,

sorry, but it was done quietly, with the House not even in sitting, and the numbers involved not being revealed. The eventually publicized maximum was supposed to be 75 B

Ever hear of “Tarnished Asset Relief”? Of course not in Canada.

#202 greyhound on 02.23.16 at 10:54 am

Forget class warfare; this is inter-generational warfare.

#203 Joe2.0 on 02.23.16 at 11:01 am

Budget won’t balance itself with all those oil patch less workers on UI or welfare.

#204 Renter's Revenge! on 02.23.16 at 11:11 am

#169 Brian on 02.23.16 at 7:31 am

“For those who have not heard, the basic idea is that welfare, EI, CPP, OAS, and all other social programs will be dismantled and replaced with a Basic Income for everyone. The number currently being tossed around is $18,000 a year. EVERYONE gets $18K … yup…free money. But for every dollar that you earn you give back 50 cents until you have reduced the Basic Income to zero. And it would all be administered by CRA.

– People will willingly drag their asses to work because working is fulfilling and a couple living won’t want to sit on their butts while living on $36K a year. Basic income will turn lazy people into hard workers because they don’t have to be at work, they want to be at work..”

A couple of points above that I disagree with.

I think a 50% clawback rate on earned income would be a pretty big disincentive to find a job. Imagine making $36,000 a year working full time knowing that others are making half of what you are for doing nothing.

Also, there are a lot of places in this country where a couple could live quite well on $36,000/year. Probably the only reason more don’t do it is because of a lack of jobs in those areas. How do you know there won’t be a mass exodus to these places if the basic income was implemented. Imagine an entire country of people getting paid to sit in a boat and fish all summer and ski and play cards all winter, etc. It’s early retirement for everyone! Who would pay for all these people’s lifestyles?

Another thought: Entitlement creep – We’ll all get used to our basic income after a while and stop appreciating it. Then we’ll demand more, i.e. the concept of basic living expenses will grow over time to include more and more luxuries and comforts, until the whole system collapses, like Greece.

#205 AB Boxster on 02.23.16 at 11:30 am

It’s interesting to hear the reaction to Garth’s recent blog.

In some ways its very retro, as in the 1960’s and 1970’s.
The youth at the time were anti-corporation, anti-big business.

But the youth were also very anti-government, anti-war.
At that time, change was affected by political action, individual and collective action, social disruption.
And fueled by idealism, and decent music.
Universities were hotbeds of open discussion, civil debate, opposing viewpoints.

These youth are the boomers of today.
Their idealism ultimately moved from directly affecting change from within (civil rights, gender equity)
to joining the economy and earning a living.

Today’s generation, seem to have different ideals (social justice, economic equality, economic success, global warming) but they seem less personally invested in achieving these.

Rather than affecting change from within, they seem to put all their faith in their government. They seem to believe that their government can directly affect
social change, and make their lives better.

Dislike the inequality in the world?
Global warming a big issue?
Unhappy with your economic and social position?
Have a big mortgage that is getting you down?
Sad about the state of affair of Canada’s natives?
Canada’s economy in the tank?

Well, fret not, the government is going to make that go away.

All it takes is money. Lots and lots of money.

The sad lesson is, that the only thing that governments are good at, is government. There can never be enough money to spend to solve all of these issues.

However, excessive spending will impact the success of today’s generation and that of their kids.
At some point the money runs out.
At some point, the money spent trying to solve all of the ills of the world, ends.
And then, governments find that they have no money for anything else.

You know, the other things in life, that do not further the ideology of the day.

– Health care
– Social services
– Safety net programs
– Pension funding
– Military effectiveness

Why do you think that university tuition costs are so high today? Why is provincial health care under stress?

This is a direct result of governments in Canada in the 1990’s attempting to address the excessive spending of the prior 25 years.
These cuts, championed by Paul Martin (of the Liberal party I will add), were in direct response to
the massive deficits that were run in the past, by Liberal and Conservative governments.
But notably, first started by T1, in his quest for the ‘Just Society’. (That was the ideal of the day)

So, when your government spends massively to try to address all of the ideals of the enlightened generation, it ultimately ends up having to shortchange its citizenry
in the end.

This lesson is well understood by those born prior to about 1980, as they lived it then, and has impacts to this day.

For those born after 1980, this will be a hard lesson to learn.

#206 cramar on 02.23.16 at 11:46 am

According to this site, we currently have way less federal debt than either the U.S. or U.K. Wonder what it will be like a few years from now when the T2 gang is done?

Rhttp://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/

#207 Brian on 02.23.16 at 11:52 am

Regarding “basic income” (my post #169) Garth said:

“It’s a failed 30-year-old idea. Chances of success this time are zero. — Garth”

Fact check. The SUCCESSFUL Canadian pilot project was 30 years ago. But the idea has been floated long before that. Even MLK called for it. The idea is much older than 30 years. But what does the age of the idea matter anyway. Straw man argument.

Garth, don’t let this one slip under the radar!

The T2 government and many regional and local governments are on record as having expressed interest and have initiated studies.

Google Basic Income Canada and see for yourself.

Visit

http://www.reddit.com/r/Basicincome/

and read along. You will be hard pressed to find a dissenting opinion.

I suspect it could fly. Here’s why:

Collectively, Boomers hold a tremendous amount of money in RRSPs. That’s money that the government would surely love to get their greedy mitts on.

So here’s the plan:

Along with Welfare, and EI, dismantle OAS, GIS, and CPP and roll it all into the new “Basic Income” program, administered by CRA.

Woo Hoo…Boomers who used to get about $13K a year from OAS and CPP now get $18K!

HOWEVER, any Boomers who have RRSP savings that are being withdrawn (perhaps at 71, perhaps earlier) must “pay back” 50 cents of their $18K for every dollar that they withdraw.

Bingo…a new “50% tax” on RRSP withdrawals for the first $18K.

We LOSE OAS and CPP and gain $18K that gets taken back because we worked and salted away money in RRSP’s.

You said it yourself Garth: “The T2 Lib gang were successful in tapping into a new pool of voters, the Millennials. About two million of them, actually. Smart politics. After all, the kids now outnumber the wrinklies, as the 18-to-30 generation becomes the
dominant population group,”

So they tapped into a young and naive DOMINATE POPULATION GROUP and can now take advantage of their youthful naivety by selling the social benefits of Basic Income while taking away OAS and CPP and increasing taxes to boot. The only ones who don’t get screwed are the dumb-assed indebted who never saved for retirement.

In time the moist Millennials will of course eventually learn not to be so naive but it will be an expensive lesson for us and eventually for them too.

Remember when YOU were young and naive?

Remember being taken advantage of because of your naivety?

Seems to me that the cycle continues.

Free Unicorns for everyone!

#208 bdy sktn on 02.23.16 at 11:52 am

#192 Alistair McLaughlin on 
………
Wow. Well said. An an elegant and thorough smack down too.

Thx

#209 The Other Chris on 02.23.16 at 11:55 am

@205 AB Boxster on 02.23.16 at 11:30 am

Great post… unfortunately people rarely connect the dots like that.

It’s always the same thing. The ongoing cuts to healthcare in Ontario are because the province has been blowing its budget in so many other areas. The cops, firefighters, and teachers get what seems to them like social justice, but there’s only so much to go around and now the health cuts we all face are becoming savage.

#210 Noel on 02.23.16 at 12:02 pm

Well, you’re spot on that social justice is more important than fiscal responsibility, and wealth is too polarized.

I also like taxes, not because its other people paying them (about half of my income goes to taxes), but because they pay for vital services and infrastructure.

If anything, taxes should be higher.

Example, taxes on gasoline and cars should be much higher to represent the true cost of driving an automobile.

I have notified the CRA of your desire. Expect a call. — Garth

#211 steelman on 02.23.16 at 12:02 pm

The peasants Revolt read all about it…

http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/medieval-england/peasants-revolt/

#212 Bottoms_Up on 02.23.16 at 12:04 pm

#189 Iconoclast on 02.23.16 at 10:03 am
——————————-
Retiring at 55 with a full pension has only and will only ever be experienced by boomers. The rules were changed for the next generation, there is a 50% clawback now for retiring at 55 from the federal public service.

Progress, right? — Garth

#213 Ronaldo on 02.23.16 at 12:14 pm

#178 Bottom Feeder on 02.23.16 at 9:01 am

”I’m tired of hearing about help for the middle class. What about us lower class folks. We have feelings too!”

Don’t worry. The middle class will be joining you soon.

#214 You're Nuts on 02.23.16 at 12:23 pm

#37 MSM-Free Zone on 02.22.16 at 6:45 pm
“…….Simply, the utter repudiation of the Harpercon philosophy which ruled the past eight years and propelled Canada through the worst financial crisis since the 1930s……”
_________________________

That’s rich, really rich. Harper couldn’t balance a chequebook with a straight face to Canadians.

PostMedia suddenly hacked into the Greater Fool today?

Where is the inaccuracy? — Garth

——————————————————————-

Harper ran 6 deficits out of 8. He squeezed out a $1.9 billion surplus in his last year (coincidentally cutting $3.1 billion from National Defence, while supporting foreign wars… election coincidence… no way…).

Canada survived the financial crisis because our banks didn’t extend subprime loans. We were seen as the golden child, and gained a lot of economic power on a short-term basis, because our institutions simply didn’t engage in fundamentally irresponsible and ridiculous lending practices. Their reasons for not doing so include, among other factors, CMHC. If you’re going to give Harper credit for Canada’s financial regulatory structure you’re going to need to provide some evidence.

The oil boom also helped us survive, again in the short-term, by betting the farm on producing what is quite possibly drop-for-drop the most expensive oil in the world. When OPEC wisened up we got crushed, and many a family’s economic outlook has been devastated (as you write about many times a week).

So what do we have Steve-o to thank for again?

In other words, no inaccuracy. — Garth

#215 Mr. Frugal on 02.23.16 at 12:24 pm

T2 is going to make things better for the middle class by increasing their taxes. Maybe we should have voted for a math teacher instead of a drama teacher. Oh well, you can’t deny that we’ve got drama.

How do you explain to your kids that their future is f*cked because we voted for a bunch politically correct liars. The lesson here is that the spoils go to the one with the nicest hair.

#216 common sense on 02.23.16 at 12:40 pm

#205 AB

Great post…

I guess you only learn by the hard way 98% of the time.

As Lyle Lovett sang “She wasn’t good but she had good (?) intentions”…

I’m just wanting for these too many to mention over inflated, markets, housing, etc finally blow back down to earth so the reality of proper rebuilding on a better, solid foundation takes place of real price discovery, honest markets…..

I know I’m fully dreaming but I was born in 1961.

Good luck to all.

#217 Blacksheep on 02.23.16 at 12:42 pm

AB Boxster # 205,

“At some point the money runs out.

At some point, the money spent trying to solve all of the ills of the world, ends.

And then, governments find that they have no money for anything else.”
——————————————————–
For currency ‘users’ like PIGS, yes, your statement 100% applies.

But we live in a sovereign (Canada or USA) ‘in control’ of it’s own currency, that technically and legally, will never “run out” of money.

It never even needs to clear it’s debt and it will never stop receiving income (tax rev.)

Devalue, definitely…. run out, never.

Still waiting for the debt jubilee to reset the system, so we can start all over again.

#218 max on 02.23.16 at 12:47 pm

The problem with my generation (I’m 43), and the new one raised by the tail end of my generation, we all think getting rich is fast and easy.

Case in point, I know someone, a home care worker. She bought a house. Ended up moving in with her boyfriend at his house. She rented her house out. The values did rise a little, 5 years later she goes to refinance. Since the rent will pay most of the mortgage, she tapped the little equity she had. She called that her profit. She thinks in 5 years when she refinances, she’ll have more equity and can tap her profit again. Soon she will learn her Langley townhouse isn’t really going up fast. The current rise is a rush of greed to get in! People are counting their chickens before their eggs are hatched. My cousin, well she is a police officer, in the RCMP, her fiancé is also a police officer in the RCMP. A few years ago, my uncle a working class worker, along with my aunt who also is a working class worker. Went to refinance their home in Victoria, they saw it had risen a fair bit since they bought it in the 80’s. They decided to borrow most of the equity. They figured in its current condition its worth X dollars now, its only going up. So they invested the loan into remodeling their house. Now my cousins fiancé, his parents cashed out of their North Van home. My cousin owns a townhouse in Langley, she moved out and her and her fiancé just bought a house out in Aldergrove. Her fiancé got a fairly large inheritance $750k, so now they want to sell my cousins townhouse. The townhouse went up for sale last weekend, had an open house, 250 people showed up. At least that’s what their agent has said. Their plan they just bought a junky house in Aldergrove on 3 acres for $850k, they’ve already put the $750k into and will pay the rest off with the townhouse money. They also want to remodel and increase the equity instantly. So they think. At least RCMP their pensions are tax free!

My aunt and uncles neighborhood, house are still listed at what they refinanced at 6 years ago. At least they have small pensions. But I know thinking the house would rise in value, they used up a $150k line of credit, bought new cars and a bunch of other assets that will be worthless in five years. They are acting like they retired already.

That’s the problem with my generation, we did save, we spent on cheap money. Now we want our retirement wealth right know. Everyone is counting their chickens before the egg has hatched. Scary of all, its all based on rich Asians, pushing us out into the Fraser Valley.

I have a PHD in rich kid! I was one! Most of my friends, parents have or had money in some cases. Id never bet on rich kids, they are the dumbest money of all!

I know a few former rich with small fortunes, they started with a large one. I saw regular folks who shouldn’t have a million dollars to put into property, dumping near a million into rural areas, simply because the so called rich foreigners will push everyone out of the lower mainland. Tulips, get your tulips here, only $300k. Rich Asian girls love tulips, someone call the wall street and just say blue horseshoe loves tulips. We’ll all be millionaires tomorrow!

#219 common sense on 02.23.16 at 12:48 pm

#189 Iconoclast

Yes freedom 55 for the gov’t employee…

I worked as one on contract for 3 years…thankfully I got out of a brain dead, emotionally numbing environment which felt like a glorified federal prison.

Not as much money mind you but the piece of mind actually working at something you enjoy, having the freedom to enjoy life vs the negativity, politics, back stabbing on a daily basis over 25 years, I made the right decision.

Nothing in life is free….To each their own.

#220 calgary64 on 02.23.16 at 12:51 pm

i agree with closing tax loopholes.
CRA for sure does not has the resources and maybe smarts to audit all these tax avoidance schemes.
CRA did ask poor me for transit pass proofs in two years.
like most government servants, CRA agents perhaps just make up their numbers by doing the easy stuff.
auditing any business would surely unearth more than auditing my transit passes. but then it is real work.
almost all such tax avoiding schemers i know, use (differing levels of) “unfair” means to minimize taxes while us salaried folks pay in full. these loopholes allow folks with same or lesser skills to end up with more. so unless CRA can ensure audits of all such cases (impossible), closing the loophole is better.

Did you not just use a ‘loophole’ and tax avoidance strategy by claiming your transit passes? — Garth

#221 IHCTD9 on 02.23.16 at 12:51 pm

#205 AB Boxster on 02.23.16 at 11:30 am

————————————————-

Good Post, and bang on the money.

#222 bdy sktrn on 02.23.16 at 1:05 pm

yeah, no transit pass tax breaks.

eliminate loopholes!

#223 Smoking Man on 02.23.16 at 1:13 pm

Rather than letting private sector build a pipeline, T2 solution is to just send Alberta Money.

Rather than extend the runways at Billy Bishop and let private sector bail out Bombardier by purchasing the Jet T2 will just send them your money.

anyone see a pattern.

http://www.fin.gc.ca/n16/16-027-eng.asp

#224 IHCTD9 on 02.23.16 at 1:17 pm

Red tide is right. Harper did have us in the black for most of his 2015 tenure, slipping only in the 3rd quarter to 941 Million in the red as of October when he was booted.

Harper would not have escaped the economic storm T2 currently sails in, but something tells me he would have done none of the fiscal blunders now permanently etched into T2’s still very short residency as PM.

I always thought 10 Billion/year was not happening given the promises, more like 15+ Billion. Now I formally revise my red ink prediction to average 25 Billion per year under Trudeau. From 941 million to 100 Billion in 4 years, a red tsunami – I think T2 is going to break some records…

Keep in mind Canadian Millennials marry in low numbers, and have very few kids if they have them at all. Many are single into their thirties, many who married aren’t planning kids. New immigrants to Canada be warned…

#225 Shawn on 02.23.16 at 1:21 pm

Pension Assertions

#212 Bottoms_Up on 02.23.16 at 12:04 pm said:

——————————-
Retiring at 55 with a full pension has only and will only ever be experienced by boomers. The rules were changed for the next generation, there is a 50% clawback now for retiring at 55 from the federal public service.

Progress, right? — Garth

*******************************************
Probably correct because taking a pension at 55, ten years early and getting no reduction makes no mathematical sense. Never did and never will.

Getting 2% of average salary for reach year worked and starting at 55 is simply worth more money than the same 2% per year with the same number of years worked at 65. The 55 year old is going to collect almost 10 years longer on average.

Most government plans have a 3% penalty per year for retiring early. But there was or is no penalty if age and years of service added to some “magic number” like 85. That elimination of the 3% reduction based on a magic number is the part that makes no mathematical sense whatsoever. Those who could benefit by the magic number were and are subsidised by those who cannot benefit as both groups pay in the same amount of contributions per dollar earned.

However, I don’t think you are correct on the rule changes. What 50% clawback? Explain?

Has the Fed pension plan changed on a go forward basis so that years worked now forward don’t qualify for the magic number?

Changing pension rules has been a sort of “third rail” Alberta tried changes which were minor for those near retirement and only affected go-forward service. The Howls were so loud that the changes got canceled. The silly math continues. The subsidisation continues. I know the details intimately.

Ontario Teachers pension managed to get some minor tweaks done around inflation protection but I had not heard of any change to the federal pension and the early retirement rules.

#226 AB Boxster on 02.23.16 at 1:28 pm

#217 Blacksheep on 02.23.16 at 12:42 pm


But we live in a sovereign (Canada or USA) ‘in control’ of it’s own currency, that technically and legally, will never “run out” of money.

——————————————————-
At the federal level you are correct.

But here is how the money runs out.

As you continue to borrow, you have to pay more service your debt. At low rates it all looks great.

But as rates rise, and the debt grows, the government ends up spending more and more to service its debt.

Even at incredibly ow rates ,it now costs Ontario over 10 billion dollars per year, just to service its debt.
Annual debt servicing in Ontario is now the 3rd largest line item after health care and education.
If Ontario had no debt, it would have 10 billion more in its budget to spend.

And when rates rise, and the Ontario (or any other provinces) debt obligations continue to rise, where is this money going to come from?

Can Ontario, or any other province print more money to pay this debt?
No it cannot, because money is controlled at the federal level.

Do you expect that the federal government has a spare $250 billion to pay off Ontario’s debt?
And to cover Quebec’s $180 Billion?
And to cover BC’s 65 billion?

Ontario and other indebted provinces are ‘exactly’ like Greece as it exists in the EU.

All of them will have to make choices of what they are prepared to cut from other budget items as long as their debt exists, and choices will become more difficult as it grows.

Like Greece in the EU, none of the provinces can benefit from the fact that Canada controls its own currency.

#227 Noel on 02.23.16 at 1:28 pm

#156 Frank on 02.23.16 at 2:04 am
You cannot build a person up by tearing another down. Penalizing success with taxes higher than the 50% already in place accomplishes no societal goal. —

So what’s the magic percentage.

These arguments are always religious ‘tax the rich more’ or ‘lower taxes on job creators’. They’re always relative. So >50% is bad but 49.5% is acceptable? 15%?

Seriously, instead of a bunch of rhetoric I’d like to hear a well-reasoned answer for the optimal tax structure.

________________________

I’ve asked the same question here before, don’t expect to get an answer, Garth doesn’t have one. No solutions, just complaints.

#228 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.23.16 at 1:29 pm

#175

Socialism always starts with rainbows, unity and fairness. But it always, without exception, ends badly. Pope John Paul II went so far as to say that socialism “does violence” to the human soul.
—————-
Tired of stupid quotes and people mixing up socialism with communism.

#229 Shawn on 02.23.16 at 1:33 pm

Pension Changes

And yes magic numbers in government pensions will likely be eliminated so there is no ability to start collecting early with no reduction.

Pensions that guarantee a certain pension and hope to fund that by investing in risky assets have a fundamental flaw.

The solution is NOT to invest in risk-free assets that pay almost nothing. The solution is to tell pensioners that their pension will be depend on how the assets do in the market.

It would be nice if defined benefit pensions made mathematical sense. They don’t. If pensioners get risk-free pensions then the employer and working employees have to absorb the risk. Governments have been in a pretty good position to absorb the risk. Private companies are generally not in a position to absorb the risk. And it is fundamentally unfair that pensioners were completely protected from the risk that markets would underperform.

We CAN have workable sort of target benefit pensions where all parties including pensioners share the risk.

But young people are right not to expect defined benefit pensions that are fundamentally mathematically unsound. If something can’t go on forever, it will stop.

#230 kommykim on 02.23.16 at 1:35 pm

RE:

Has the Fed pension plan changed on a go forward basis so that years worked now forward don’t qualify for the magic number?

Add 5 years to all the milestone age brackets for new hires now joining the PSPP. Those hired after 2013 with a magic number of 85 in the future will retire at 60 vs 55 with no penalty. If they don’t meet the magic # then they will have to wait till 65 vs a pre-2013 hire waiting till 60 to avoid the penalty.

#231 r1200c on 02.23.16 at 1:41 pm

Top Deficit-years of the past decade

2009 – 55.6 Billion
2010 – 33.4 Billion
2011 – 26.3 Billion
2012 – 18.4 Billion

Years of the worst global financial crisis since the 1930s: 2008, 2009, 2010 and (bonus – the US debt ceiling crisis), 2011. — Garth

#232 saskatoon on 02.23.16 at 1:47 pm

#196 Herb

1. herb mistakenly self-identifies as psychologically unhinged liberal nutjob.

2. herb called out as sociopathic, immoral flip-flopper.

3. nice.

#233 World Traveller on 02.23.16 at 1:54 pm

any opinion on this?

https://www.tdcanadatrust.com/products-services/investing/gics-term-deposits/mkt-growth-gics.jsp

Sure. Junk. Potentially, maybe, possibly earn 2.8% a year, taxed fully if not in an RRSP? You have low goals. — Garth

#234 Reasonfirst on 02.23.16 at 1:57 pm

Seeing as you are playing the demographic blame game – might as well blame everybody:

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/an-election-that-broke-the-rules-liberals-swept-demographic-groups-pollsters-say

Canadians who voted Liberal: 6.9 million. Voted not Liberal: 9 million. — Garth

#235 Reasonfirst on 02.23.16 at 2:04 pm

“social justice” vs. a few less trips to buy crap at Walmart – the horror, the horror.

#236 45north on 02.23.16 at 2:31 pm

Bottoms-Up: Retiring at 55 with a full pension has only and will only ever be experienced by boomers. The rules were changed for the next generation, there is a 50% clawback now for retiring at 55 from the federal public service.

Shawn: Has the Fed pension plan changed on a go forward basis so that years worked now forward don’t qualify for the magic number?

Changing pension rules has been a sort of “third rail” Alberta tried changes which were minor for those near retirement and only affected go-forward service. The Howls were so loud that the changes got canceled. The silly math continues. The subsidisation continues. I know the details intimately.

I worked in the Federal Civil Service for 39 years. I have not heard about a 50% clawback at 55. I’m pretty sure Bottoms_Up is wrong.

#237 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 02.23.16 at 2:39 pm

CONFUSED CLASS WARFARE ARTISTS

They’re “writing” in scrambling to outdo previous posters all still in a huff trying to justify chucking out the so-called Harpercons last November.

They un-elected them without thinking about consequences, of course.

But judging from the Moisters’ line of so-called thinking any “bad for them” consequences can be “bailed-out” by demanding a government bailout.

Y’know what? It’s not gonna happen.

Face facts here, please.

Open-ended deficits, which is what our new finance minister is essentially promising, has bad consequences, specifically:

–higher borrowing costs because of slashed credit ratings that Fitch, Standard & Poors and all the rest of the credit raters will be pinning on our hides ‘ere long.

That would be bad enough if revenues were to remain relatively sanguine as per 2013-14.

But NOT NOW. With collapsed oil prices, and open-ended spending intentions, our credit rating will be heading for JUNK territory no matter how many stupid Millennials show up at Starbucks to “will away” this reality.

When that happens, y’all, there goes the neighbourhood, namely every one of Trudeau’s election promises. The bloody lot of ’em.

To bolster my point, read on: just this morning, at a conference of oil and gas-types in Houston Texas (the Western world’s energy capital), Saudi Arabia’s oil minister told the gathered multitudes SIX TIMES the following: NO PRODUCTION CUTS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE…PERIOD.

Literally seconds after he made those pronouncements oil collaped 5 per cent or $1.63 US per barrel. Now THAT’S A CONSEQUENCE!

Why did the gentleman say that?

Because Mideast, and other oil producers, cannot get their acts together to co-ordinate production cuts in order to raise prices.

So, he said in effect, screw you all, including our oil patch, T2, Moisters and all of Canada’s so-called middle class.

But most of all, I find it passing strange that our finance minister, a highly successful Bay Street multi-millionaire, seemingly can’t see the economic forest for the freaking trees.

What happend to you, Sir? Have you forgotten everything you’ve ever learned about economics, markets and capitalism?

If so then why?

Have you sold your financial soul for your present gig?

Just askin’.

Soon, lots of financial rubber to hit lots of Canadian roads, and Millennial backsides, to boot.

Smell of burning rubber.

Not so green.

#238 Mark on 02.23.16 at 2:41 pm

“Harper did have us in the black for most of his 2015 tenure,”

Unequivocally not true. The debt of Canada rose from $628B as of December 31, 2014 to $645 as of October 31, 2015. Harper was on track to run a $20-$25B deficit in 2015 had he not been removed from power.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/markets/government-securities-auctions/goc-t-bills-and-bonds-outstanding/

#239 kommykim on 02.23.16 at 2:47 pm

RE:

Years of the worst global financial crisis since the 1930s: 2008, 2009, 2010 and (bonus – the US debt ceiling crisis), 2011. — Garth

Funny how when the CONs run deficits it’s always someone else’s fault, but when the LIBs do it, it’s their own fault.

Funny how ideologues choose to ignore context. — Garth

#240 45north on 02.23.16 at 3:06 pm

AB Boxster: the only thing that governments are good at, is government.

in the case of Shared Services, governments are not even good at government:

Almost since its inception in 2011, the federal government’s computer services agency known as Shared Services Canada has been accused of being overstaffed, mismanaged and late with its core projects.

http://ottawacitizen.com/business/local-business/circuit-overload-why-shared-services-canada-is-struggling

this is hardly the fault of the Liberals, the project started in 2011 under the Conservatives. I suppose they thought there was minimum risk so they said okay. I also suppose that in the way it was presented they didn’t have that much choice. I mean you go into another meeting where the plan is put forth for the umpteenth time, what are you going to do?

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/umpteenth?s=t

#241 Industrial Guy on 02.23.16 at 3:24 pm

blue crab herb grass, Talk about stretching the truth …. where do I start? So the “Wynnie rainbow party” pushed the Canadian Petro dollar to $1.10 US. It killed the manufacturing sector in Ontario … I attended a lot of the auctions.

As for electricity costs in Ontario … sure it’s a nightmare …. It was under Mike Harris too.

No one could have foreseen the massive drop in demand that happened since 2010 .. In fact up to 2006, we were rationing power in mid summer. Now we have the worst of both situations. Flat demand and expensive wind, gas and solar generators coming online. The good news is the coal fired stations are shut so we can all breathe easier and were not building new nukes with no idea where to store the spent fuel rods.

#242 Industrial Guy on 02.23.16 at 3:42 pm

Alistair McLaughlin CIBC, Bank of Montreal and Scotiabank — were receiving government support that was equal to or more than the value of the company’s shares. BAILOUT!

Economist David MacDonald said “the government tried to hide the numbers even from Access to Information requests” …. and the total was $114-billion.

Oh, the quote is from the Financial Post …. Rabble.ca? Do you work there???

#243 kommykim on 02.23.16 at 3:53 pm

RE:

Funny how ideologues choose to ignore context. — Garth

Yes, I’ve noticed that. It is falling commodity prices which are killing Canada today. I fail to see how the US debt crisis was a factor in Canada’s $33B deficit in 2011 with $100 oil and commodities etc pumping the economy. Please explain why the CONs have such an “excellent” fiscal record in 2011 to this ignorant blog dog.

#244 Shawn on 02.23.16 at 4:01 pm

Government Pensions at 55

Probably far less than half actually retire at 55 even when eligible for an unreduced pension due to the magic numbers.

This is because 1: The pension would be roughly 60% of their earnings in most cases. This is for a full 2% pension and where current salary and the five year average are about the same . Many pensions pay only 1.4% per year up to the Canada pension ma x number . So a clerk earning 55k in the government and with 30 years in is going to get 30 times 1.4 = 42% of highest five year salary.

Bottom lines most could not afford to live on their pensions at 55 though “unreduced”.

If they keep working their pension at 60 or 75 will be larger due to the 5 or 10 extra years worked and maybe due to salary increases.

If they keep working that keep drawing their salary.

If they retire and look to replace the lost half of their income they may find that they can’t replace the half at this point unless they work full time or have very marketable skills in which case they might replace working half time. Most will never work again even if they intended to.

The notion that most government workers will retire at 55 is a myth.

#245 Herb on 02.23.16 at 4:02 pm

‘Ideology’ for you is praising those who agree with you and criticizing those who do not. — Garth

That is a human failing, Garth, not an ideology. And I thought I’d be at least a “lefty” – you do know how to hurt a man!

Glad you’re sticking to your principles, so do tell how you would resolve Alberta’s problems or Canada’s economic stagnation without raising taxes, going into debt, or trusting to the mirage of a future “trickle down”. Last I heard, only about 25% of federal spending is discretionary.

And while you’re at it, how you’d arrange for a soft landing in real estate.

#246 Billy-Bob on 02.23.16 at 4:05 pm

For all the indentured surfs…that have no idea whats going on in your policed state….
All the folks are buying their Coffee and other little petty things with plastic/debit.
I USE CASH accept for larger transactions and I encourage EVERYONE to do the same….as you are playing into the criminals hands that run the show.

http://moneytalks.net/article-and-commentary/michael-campbell/mikes-interview-of-the-week/16797-mikes-editorial-a-interview-of-the-week.html

#247 Shawn on 02.23.16 at 4:08 pm

Federal Pension Changes for the Young

#230 kommykim on 02.23.16 at 1:35 pm
RE:

Has the Fed pension plan changed on a go forward basis so that years worked now forward don’t qualify for the magic number?

Add 5 years to all the milestone age brackets for new hires now joining the PSPP. Those hired after 2013 with a magic number of 85 in the future will retire at 60 vs 55 with no penalty. If they don’t meet the magic # then they will have to wait till 65 vs a pre-2013 hire waiting till 60 to avoid the penalty.

***************************************
Thank you.

It had to be done as magic numbers like that make no mathematical sense.

There is an offset in that will lead to lower contributions since the expense of the pension is reduced.

The unfortunate thing is that many government workers today are paying contributions that in theory are high enough to fund their own pensions PLUS making substantial contributions to short-falls of the past while pensioners are fully paid with no reduction due to the shortfall, which is as was agreed, but which is not really fair to the young people. But cutting pensions even by a fraction is the third rail. Though I believe in New Brunswick that managed it somehow.

Government wages will continue to be higher than private in part to entice workers to come in and make pension contributions that are partly to support past shortfalls.

#248 Herb on 02.23.16 at 4:09 pm

231 saskatoon,

1. herb mistakenly self-identifies as psychologically unhinged liberal nutjob.

2. herb called out as sociopathic, immoral flip-flopper.

Re. para 1., where?, and para 2. by whom?

Did I miss something, saskbush?

#249 Shawn on 02.23.16 at 4:12 pm

Cash to be Trash

#246 Billy-Bob on 02.23.16 at 4:05 pm said:

I USE CASH accept for larger transactions and I encourage EVERYONE to do the same….as you are playing into the criminals hands that run the show.

*****************************************
You did not say who the criminals are and I won’t listen to a whole radio show to find out.

But paper cash is on the way out. It’s done. Forget it.
Embrace the plastic. Don’t fight a losing battle.

And buy bank stocks.

#250 Shawn on 02.23.16 at 4:21 pm

Eliminating Cash

Okay, I listened to the editorial Kommy Kim posted just above.

Great points but Michael Campbell did not accuse anyone of being criminal.

We are halfway down the slipperly slope to cashless. Forget it. It’s a done deal.

#251 Shawn on 02.23.16 at 4:23 pm

Shawn is Gone (from this Board)

Okay, this has gotten way out of hand. I hereby pledge no more comments until at least May 1. I need two months off from this.

#252 Ace Goodheart on 02.23.16 at 4:35 pm

Still kind of disagree with the whole “entitled moisters” thing and the “house hornyness”. At any time in history, the goal of any newly released working person has been to buy themselves somewhere to live. Landlords are not wonderful to deal with and living with your mom and dad just plain sucks.

So there will always be starry eyed youngsters out there dreaming about houses. A garage, three bedrooms, a leafy backyard and some cool neighbours are part of every undergraduate student’s wet dreams.

What has happened in North America, is the same thing that happened eons ago in Europe and most of the rest of the world. The 1% noticed that people like having somewhere to live, and decided to make this fact of life profitable for themselves.

Why have houses being sold at prices that anyone can afford by working for a couple of years? There is no benefit in that, if you are at the top of the food chain.

So, we have the single worst invention for anyone who is young, just started working, and has minimal or no savings: The notional amortization period. This is the killer of dreams. This is the little trick that government and bankers have put in place, to enslave anyone who wants to own a house and some land.

You see, loans need to be paid off in a predictable period of time. 25 years is not predictable. Five years is ideal, ten years is pushing it. So bankers need to have payment terms that result in the borrower returning all of their money, in ideally five years.

But that of course means, that any payment plan for repayment, must involve full repayment of the entire amount, by the end of the five year term. This would mean that people who wanted to buy houses could only borrow the amount they could repay, fully, in five years. Just think of what this would do to real estate prices, if this were actually the way things were done. Anyone who wanted to buy a house, must pay down the loan completely, in five years….

However, if you are a bank or a government, you don’t want the above situation. That would mean that after five years, the incentive on the part of your population to work would be greatly reduced. After all, once they have paid for their houses, why are they working full time? Imagine the hit to tax revenues and also imagine the effect on the amount of interest bankers are able to collect, if people worked full time for five years and then slowed down?

So we have the “notional amortization mortgage” to the rescue. You can amortize your payments over a 25 year period. Suddenly, everyone can buy houses they cannot afford. Forget about the fact that the entire balance is due in five years. Pretend that it is due in 25 years, and then make the payments reflect that situation. Then in five years, the borrowing home owner has to “refinance” meaning they still need their full time job (and they still have to pay interest and taxes). This is the notional amortization mortgage.

Raising house prices everywhere, for the benefit of taxation and interest collection. It’s the 1%’s way of saying “if you want somewhere to live, we own you for life….”

Cheers!

“A garage, three bedrooms, a leafy backyard and some cool neighbours are part of every undergraduate student’s wet dreams.” Really. Things are far worse than I suspected. — Garth

#253 saskatoon on 02.23.16 at 4:40 pm

#248 Herb

you are missing many things.

#254 Grey Dog on 02.23.16 at 4:48 pm

#207 Brian
I agree I will have to pay outstanding deferred taxes on my RRSPs. However, you do not deserve to get half of it!

I worked full time AND part time, my husband worked full time in addition to picking up overnight and weekend assignments.

We rarely ate in a restaurant or anything like McD, carried homemade lunches to work daily. No Starbucks, vacations were in a tent trailer (borrowed).

We saved, worked hard, climbed the employment ladder.

Drove each and every car into the ground 12 to 15 years later.

3/4 of those RRSPs BELONG TO US TO ENJOY IN OUR RETIREMENT YEARS.

Have you got any pride at all? Isn’t freeloading embarrassing?

#255 bobby on 02.24.16 at 1:28 am

Goodness you need to realize those RRSp’s can be taken away, its already legal for the gov to do it as well as take from your accounts collaborated with the banks, The election never once mentioned by either party they would scrap the bail in program, somehow a guy gets in that has done nothing to deserve this title its a shame. Was voted in on a terrible platform. you can only rob from peter to pay paul until paul has no money either. It makes me want to relocate out of country when I think how hard we will be taxed down the road.