The shock

shock modified

She’s honest.

“I feel like that perfect female character you’ve been describing in your blog, emotional wife that’s house horny wanting a ‘home’,” says Betty. “We’ve been good at saving, and renting, and the landlord is kicking us out so now I (the wife) want to buy.”

Young Betty & her cuddles together earn $115,000 and put the rest of us to shame when it comes to squirreling – $140,000 sitting in a savings account (house money) and another $80,000 in TFSAs. Now the LL is ending their lease, “so we are facing the situation of spending $2,000 per month on either rent or on a mortgage. It is so darn difficult to find a place to rent that’s large enough, allows dogs and has in-suite dishwasher & laundry. We intend to buy a place around $400,000.

“I have been reading your blog for two years. I KNOW that a correction is to happen in my life time but WHEN?! Part of us just wants to settle while a part of me is emailing you at the moment hoping you’ll reply and slap some sense into me.”

Now, obviously, these kids don’t live in YVR, or 416. They make reasonable money, and save like crazed beavers. She’s asking for guidance. Plus they have a dog. So how can not like ‘em? Buying a $400k house with a hundred down means a mortgage (5-year closed @ 2.6%) of $1,300, so with property tax and lost earnings on the deposit, the monthly works out to a few bucks over $2,000.

Is it worth upgrading from rental apartment to a backyard for Fido and an end to house lust, taking advantage of the bottom in fixed mortgage rates and a depressed economy, while retaining $120,000 in a liquid portfolio?

Hell, yes. Betty should buy.

As this pathetic blog has striven to point out many times, all real estate is local. A majority of markets these days are stagnant, declining, boring or stable. Even the GTA (as detailed Thursday) contains hundreds of affordable properties, with many prices currently below levels of ten months ago. The housing bubble is only in Vancouver, saucy bits of the Lower Mainland, 416 detached, hunks of the 905 and in the minds of every journalist, most of whom live in condos and wish they didn’t.

Nobody, of course, should be buying right now in Van, North Van, West Van, Surry, Burnaby, Oakville, Leaside, Leslieville, North Toronto or other areas where speculation and delusion rule the day. Even as DOM grow longer and sales more difficult, prices remain at inflated, unrealistic, greedy and hedonistic levels. This will change. Wait for it.

People actually have less disposable income lately. As predicted, inflation’s taken a big turn higher as the dollar swooned. Veggies jumped 18% year/year last month after a 13% surge in December, and as the cost of living rises, family cash flow falls. This is why fewer people are house-shopping.

Then there’s the budget coming in four weeks. The T2 gang will be spending hugely – possibly doubling the forecast deficit – in an effort to crank jobs. Whether you agree with this artificial stimulus or not, it will mean two things: more taxes (they’re coming, trust me), and no more interest rate cuts. The Bank of Canada will be letting the feds do the heavy lifting, especially since higher US rates (more ahead in 2016) will pressure our dollar. We just can’t afford cheaper money any more.

Remember, as well, the new down payment rules – in place for a week, now. The impact will be noticeable as moisters with 5% or less down are restricted to buying cheaper properties, helping temper bidding wars and higher valuations. And then we have the impact of oil creep, far more tangible than first appears. The collapse in commodity values will reduce Canadian growth to just 1.4% says the OECD, and job stress is being felt from the Mairtimes to Bay Street and Vancouver Island.

Look at Brad Lamb’s abandoning of major condo projects in Alberta as evidence of the obvious. New house prices are now rising at just the inflation rate and a fresh report from Moody’s Analytics says our whole housing market’s getting wobbly. In fact, it adds, things could come “to a screeching halt.” The reasons: “A continued slowdown in smaller metro areas could eventually drag down the overall market,” plus, “Mortgage rates will almost certainly rise by the end of the year as the U.S. Federal Reserve continues its rate hikes, driving up longer-term government bond yields in the U.S. and Canada through 2016.”

Moreover, Moody’s states, the ultimate impact of low rates today is probably negative for homeowners: “The Bank of Canada’s low interest rate policies may help prop up house prices this year, but even Canadian policy rate tightening is inevitable. This could price many new borrowers out of the market and increase the risks for those faced with rolling over existing mortgage debt or attempting to draw equity out of their homes. The result will likely be a softening of household demand over the coming years.”

Okay, so why should Betty buy despite all the overhang?

Because all markets are local and all of us are different. Those who are diligent savers, adhere to my rule of 90, have overall balanced net worth, can take advantage of softer markets plus low rates, who buy within their means, corral debt, maintain cash flow and slavishly cater to insatiable canine needs, well, they shall inherit the earth.

The rest of you, good luck.

203 comments ↓

#1 Fred on 02.21.16 at 12:49 pm

First.

But I don’t get it.

At least you showed up. — Garth

#2 Strathcona on 02.21.16 at 12:57 pm

I’ll assume Betty doesn’t live in Alberta. Free TV’s, Free first month’s rent, rent reductions, hockey stick curve on graph of local vacancy rates. The rental market is far ahead of the housing market here. Everyone here is still sticky with selling their castle for last years price. Landlords here don’t have the luxury to keep the place vacant for months. As Garth said, all markets are local. Unless we’re really at the bottom of the oil market this spring, you’d be better making a campfire with tens of thousands of dollars than making offers based on asking or outdated ” comparables ” here. We’re one more ” green shift” away from this thing toppling over.

#3 bguy1 on 02.21.16 at 12:58 pm

Yowzers: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-19/canada-s-credit-cycle-has-never-been-this-desynchronized-from-the-united-states

“While credit growth is poised to serve as a continued tailwind to activity south of the border, the analyst expects that Canada’s credit frenzy will soon be over.
He [Doyle] suggested that the confluence of a surge in young, heavily-indebted households (eerily similar to the pre-crisis U.S.)”

#4 For those about to flop... on 02.21.16 at 1:12 pm

Then there’s the budget coming in four weeks. The T2 gang will be spending hugely – possibly doubling the forecast deficit – in an effort to crank jobs. -Garth

//////////////////////////////////

The Metrosexual Messiah and crank in the same sentence,sounds about right…

M41BC

#5 pathcontrolmonk on 02.21.16 at 1:12 pm

Garth, 2 points you are consistently wrong about:
1. Kia is not a bad car. I wouldn’t buy one, but I rented one on a trip recently, quite liked it.
2. Mainland Chinese buyers laundering money and/or operating shadow markets, are driving YVR’s astronomical prices.

I agree with the rest though!

Accusing new Canadians from China of ‘laundering’ money and being criminals is surely beneath us. And Kias suck. — Garth

#6 Vers on 02.21.16 at 1:18 pm

So, the big question, does the fed simply stick to it’s knitting and roll out anther small increase on time at the next meeting, putting everyone on notice that a few more increases are likely to happen later this year, or do they keep the world double guessing for an extended period of time and wait until the summer?
I believe, based on past increases they don’t wait. As mentioned before, they are six months behind schedule, and need to make that up or they risk losing the power of this policy tool.

#7 Chris in Nanaimo on 02.21.16 at 1:27 pm

I’d like to know how the heck Inflation is calculated in Canada?

I don’t know about anyone else but our food bill for a family of 4 is usually somewhere around 30% of our monthly spend. Given food inflation of 18% , how is the overall inflation only 2%? Weighted averages anyone???

Or is it a simple fixing the numbers…the BoC knows that if the true weighted inflation was actually 4-5% it would be forced to raise interest rates, blowing up the housing bubble.

I’m guessing the published inflation rate is calculated using the same Frankenumber algorithm the CREA uses….

#8 Raven on 02.21.16 at 1:29 pm

Coming to a channel near you.

“List it or lose it”

#9 Balmuto on 02.21.16 at 1:37 pm

“Mortgage rates will almost certainly rise by the end of the year as the U.S. Federal Reserve continues its rate hikes, driving up longer-term government bond yields in the U.S. and Canada through 2016.” – Moody’s

If the CPI numbers keep rising, there will certainly be Fed hikes but this won’t necessarily translate into higher longer-term bond yields. The curve could flatten, or invert. With almost a third of global sovereign bond yields trading negative, there will be continue to be a strong bid for Treasuries and Canadas, which could put a lid on our bond yields and therefore mortgage rates. The CPI numbers are key. If there is a modest but sustained rise in inflation, gradual hikes will follow and you’ll have a Goldillocks environment for bonds. If inflation spikes, the Fed could get more agressive and the bond market will sell off. Let’s see.

#10 Nobody on 02.21.16 at 1:39 pm

While here n 604 there are no rental price hikes but renters are getting kicked out to sell. People are being forced to move every couple of years, switch kids to new schools, abandon friends and neighbours.

Home ownership isn’t only about dreams of granite counters and return on capital.

#11 46 and 2 on 02.21.16 at 1:43 pm

#5 Raven

– Classic –

#12 Benner Jenson on 02.21.16 at 1:47 pm

I’d just say that when renters switch to owners, they gotta be psychologically ready for all the extra fees and expenses that come with home ownership. It’s a pretty big lifestyle change and more to look after, maintain etc. I find that renters rent because they would rather not do all those extra tasks that take up time and money and would rather have more free time.

#13 Randy Randerson on 02.21.16 at 1:52 pm

So T2’s pre-election promise of middle class tax cut will be replace by higher tax in the new budget? Talk about blowing and sucking all in one go. I wonder how all those Liberal supporters feel now with their New Hope.

Don’t expect higher taxes in the first budget. They come later. — Garth

#14 Mike in Toronto on 02.21.16 at 1:56 pm

#5 pathcontrolmonk

Kias sucked when this blog started. Since then, Toyota had a crisis, Honda became overrated, the financial crisis sunk the American cars and Hyundai rose in quality.

Hyundai bought Kia almost 18 years ago and ever since has been steadily raising their standards. Now they’re cheap, fully-loaded and well-made. Get them before everyone figures it out and they start raising prices. Just Google “Kia car of the year”

In 20 years Kia will be just like Honda. Overrated, overpriced and you’ll pay through the nose for automatic and A/C. The children of the millennials will be talking about Cherry and Tata, while all the old Kia owners will be telling the kids how crappy Cherry and Tata is. Meanwhile the 2030’s equivalent of Matthew McConnaghy will be hired to try to make Toyota and Honda cool again.

It’s the circle of life.

#15 crossbordershopper on 02.21.16 at 1:56 pm

come to rural Saskatchewan, get a place for 60 grand. almost everyone can afford that. kids go to school, nurse and doctors and grocery store around. casual, no stress, don’t need to lock anything since well, there are no people around.
definitely a change of pace, but one good thing about the internet, the world is at your door in 3 days shipping. and the stuff you can get so cheap on the net is very good.
all in all, you can retire with a million dollar house, paid for, or sock away the cash through your life.
I literally spend $20 every 2 weeks on gas. I used to spend that a day in southern Ontario without the traffic and commute issues.
and of course collect your government cheque when 65 and go to mexico or cuba.

#16 pathcontrolmonk on 02.21.16 at 1:59 pm

Accusing new Canadians from China of ‘laundering’ money and being criminals is surely beneath us. And Kias suck. — Garth

-Garth, well I didnt use the word “criminal”, or “new Canadians”. If you think I am wrong, ask some of your own friends from Shenzhen or Guangzhou about how they get their money out of the PRC. Alternatively, you can ask UBC Prof. Tom Davidoff, he agrees.

http://www.vancourier.com/news/what-s-driving-vancouver-s-soaring-real-estate-market-1.2178035

Laundering is a criminal activity. Be careful how you defame people you’ve never met. Could happen to you. — Garth

#17 kommykim on 02.21.16 at 2:03 pm

RE:Hell, yes. Betty should buy.

This made me check my calendar to make sure it wasn’t April 1st. Then I scrolled back and re-read the entire posting, making sure Garth hadn’t been hacked by noting that his usual pithiness was still there though it was a bit subdued today.
Are you feeling Ok today Garth?

#18 kommykim on 02.21.16 at 2:11 pm

RE:

#7 Chris in Nanaimo on 02.21.16 at 1:27 pm
Or is it a simple fixing the numbers…the BoC knows that if the true weighted inflation was actually 4-5% it would be forced to raise interest rates, blowing up the housing bubble.

By understating inflation, sovereign states can inflate away their debts and keep people spending (generates tax revenues).

#19 Prairieboy43 on 02.21.16 at 2:13 pm

Edmonton fuel price $0.574/litre. Buy a 300 gallon tank. Move it into garage/driveway. Fill up now. refineries shutting down this summer for 9 weeks for maintenance. Fuel Prices will be up too $1.00/litre.
PB43

#20 Arb Watson on 02.21.16 at 2:15 pm

This nicely sums up Toronto real estate.

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2015/07/27/rent-vs-buy/

#21 Strathcona on 02.21.16 at 2:20 pm

OMG. KIA’s are a bad car. Thin paint, cheap finishes, disposable. They’re the Plymouth Neon of this era. If you wanted a better car you could have bought their Hyundai. Having said that, there are a surplus of millions of late model preowned cars in North America. If I lived in Egypt or Russia I might only buy new, due to no supply.

#22 Fluorine on 02.21.16 at 2:36 pm

>> #3 bguy1

Good find. Interesting.

#23 S.bby on 02.21.16 at 2:41 pm

#10 nobody
More realtor scare tactics.

#24 Buy Bear, Sell Bull on 02.21.16 at 2:45 pm

We bought into North Vancouver in 2010 after “bearing” it for 8 years. I’ve been reading this blog since 2008. I still like to think I’m a bear, but man do I wake up feeling like a bull lately.

We bought at $800K. Homes down the road are listing for $1.6M and selling for over $2M a few days later. We feel good with our property being bigger and better. Wife is saying sell. I say party on – for now. The reality is that the house could drop way below $800k and we would still be fine with a well diversified portfolio.

So two plugs for the day –

First, I built http://www.findyourworth.com for people like you and I that want to build their wealth over their lifetime. Give a few of the apps a try.

Second, buy mining – it’s at a low low low.

#25 For those about to flop... on 02.21.16 at 3:07 pm

When I was 19 my parents said they were selling the house we lived in.
For me it was a natural time to fly the nest.Real estate was affordable and I had decent down deposit.
The numbers… 55k for the house and with a 35 k deposit I polished off the rest in no time.
I sold the house 5 years later and travelled the world not ever going back.
Fast forward 20 years and I can only laugh at Vancouver prices, I have not been settled or well off enough to buy real estate ever since.
In the meantime despite my meagre earnings I have tried to save for retirement/ real estate and used my freedom to my advantage living in 5 countries ,visiting 35 and at the moment I am concentrating on North America with the low dollar and also if I retire somewhere else I will have no regrets.
I have visited approximately 20 U.S states and am about to add New Mexico to the list.
In Canada I have visited b.c ,ab,Yt,On,Qc,N.S.
Visiting is nowhere the same as living but I like to try and understand the local psyche.
I have lived in Vancouver since 2002….the second longest I have lived anywhere and yet I do not understand this city at all.
I seen a quote once about the city that wrung true for me..
“Vancouver is like your cute little niece with glasses and braces, who knows that she is pretty but needs to be constantly told how beautiful she is…. “Or something to that effect.
It is decent city with grandiose dreams, but it is lacking any soul or warmth.
If Vancouver was my niece I would tell her to get out of her own way and not be so obsessed with appearance…
Not everyone can be a super model…

M41BC

#26 pathcontrolmonk on 02.21.16 at 3:07 pm

Laundering is a criminal activity. Be careful how you defame people you’ve never met. Could happen to you. — Garth

The prevalence of money laundering out of the PRC and how it has impacted RE prices is well documented by academia, the media and govt agencies in Canada, US & PRC. The problem is so chronic, Canada has even allowed PRC govt agents to conduct undercover operations in Canada to expose Chinese nationals laundering money. The Canadian Border Services Agency also identifies money laundering from mainland China as a major problem, and specifically mentions how RE is being used to launder said money.

If my comment is defamatory, then so is saying Las Vegas is full of degenerate gamblers.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/chinese-police-run-secret-operations-in-b-c-to-hunt-allegedly-corrupt-officials-and-laundered-money

http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/cbsa-blames-money-laundering-for-vancouver-market-193917.aspx

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-11-02/china-s-money-exodus

#27 IKnow on 02.21.16 at 3:09 pm

There’s much speculation and delusion in surrey?
Even in Metro Vancouver, the bubble is localized to areas where ethnic Chinese like to be.
Richmond and Surrey are separated by maybe just 20 minutes of driving, but at least three times difference in price per square foot.
Go wonder and analyze

#28 Sideshow Rob on 02.21.16 at 3:16 pm

I agree except for a few things. The people running the show are politicians and academics. Neither group lives in the real world but no doubt some may have read about it. When faced with admitting a mistake they won’t fix things and carry on. Not these people. Instead they will double down on the stupid. Lowering interest rates and sacrificing the dollar are mistakes. Look for the double down when housing prices actually do dip. This time next year negative BOC rates and a much lower dollar are a given. It’s brain dead stupid and that pretty much guarantees they will do it when they are faced with any adversity.

#29 Shawn on 02.21.16 at 3:21 pm

CPI Inflation

Chris in Nanaimo on 02.21.16 at 1:27 pm said:

I’d like to know how the heck Inflation is calculated in Canada?

I don’t know about anyone else but our food bill for a family of 4 is usually somewhere around 30% of our monthly spend. Given food inflation of 18% , how is the overall inflation only 2%? Weighted averages anyone???

**********************************
Chris, you are a man of numbers but have been led astray by false reports.

Veggie inflation may be 18% but overall food inflation was reported at 4% year over year in January.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/160219/t001a-eng.htm

Is CPI manipulated?

No, it reported honestly and consistently and using transparent methods and involves honest people doing their best to calculate a number that will always be subject to some debate. There is no political interference in the calculation.

For years people complained when the core inflation excluding food and gasoline was higher than the main headline number. (Don’t these people eat or drive or heat their house!, the rabble groused as they accused Stats Can of misleading people)

Then over much of 2015 when the core number was HIGHER than the headline number (which was driven lower by lower gasoline prices) there was silence and no apology.

Again, people believe what they want to and seldom let facts and evidence get in the way.

#30 Puzni on 02.21.16 at 3:22 pm

I live in vancouver and all lower mainland areas are on fire. My friend has sold a rancher house in Pitt Meadows for 710 K ( within a week) as he wanted to upgrade square footage. Now the only are he can ” sort of ” afford is Langley , where he already lost out to a higher offers on houses in which he was interested. Houses in Langley which is 50 km from Vancouver are already in 800K + range and some of those areas are zoned agricultural. Things are that crazy !

#31 Shawn on 02.21.16 at 3:23 pm

I meant people groused when core inflation was reported as LOWER than headline inflation.

#32 Babbler on 02.21.16 at 3:25 pm

“This will change. Wait for it.” – Garth

————————————————————

My son and his fiancé have waited the last two years. I agreed it made sense. Others have waited much longer. They have all been wrong to do.

#33 jess on 02.21.16 at 3:25 pm

correcting the wronged is time lagging

The California Supreme Court on Thursday ruled unanimously in favor of a fraudulently foreclosed-upon homeowner in a case that should serve as a wake-up call to state and federal prosecutors that mortgage companies continue to use false documents to evict homeowners on a daily basis.

“A homeowner who has been foreclosed on by one with no right to do so has suffered an injurious invasion of his or her legal rights at the foreclosing entity’s hands,” the justices wrote….

The case, Yvanova v. New Century Mortgage Corporation,

https://theintercept.com/2016/02/19/siding-with-a-victim-of-fraudulent-foreclosure-california-court-exposes-a-failure-of-law-enforcement/

#34 Siva on 02.21.16 at 3:27 pm

Condo security guard says he owns four houses. Sounds like subprime lending.

#35 Siva on 02.21.16 at 3:35 pm

Tata owns Jaguar and Land Rover. All three suck.

#36 koenig on 02.21.16 at 3:38 pm

KIA’s really suck, they are the condo and townhomes of the auto industry. People buy them because they can’t afford a better Japanese car.

One thing my great aunt often said while I was growing up, she said buy real estate. She’s 94 now, I know her condo buying history over the last 30 years. She finally got smart and moved into an old folks home. She sold her Toronto condo for a little more then she paid for it back in 98. Great investment. Granted she did buy a farm property back in the early 80’s, now worth around $2million in Ontario’s flat market. Pretty good investment, not a grand slam.

A prime example of what’s happening in Vancouver lower mainland real estate. Our lovely premier bet big that LNG would be BC’s future. She based this on the high prices of oil and gas. She was wrong. You can’t predict the future, we do have some tools to help us. But for the most part, real estate is a guess. Historically, most immigrants wanted to immigrate to the U.S. Canada, was a second choice for most. Who knows in 30 years what will happen, maybe the U.S. opens the immigration to Asia, they all go there. Maybe the majority of Asians decide to stay in Asia. Its a crap shoot.

People are now making a financial decision based on a roll of the dice, 5, 10, 15, I wont be able to afford a house because of all the people moving to Vancouver. Sure at this point of time the trend is to live and work in the city. But in the future who knows. People are talking like they are experts in Asians, they are doing this and that. The Asians are coming and they’ll force us all out to the country. Funny, people speculating without confirming the trend. Are they really snapping up property in Vancouver?

You now have a market based on chasing rich Asians who have no clue about the basics of North American real estate and even worse we have no clue what the rich Asians are thinking and doing. Speculation based on a hunch is gambling plain and simple. Gamblers never stay rich long.

Lets ask our premier about the oil and gas market? Its BC future after all! Its funny, the herd always try’s to figure out what the rich is doing. In 1929, a few successful speculators shorted the crash. Now days we hear when the market falls apart its time to buy. Well to restore confidence in the market, the government went to the richest people in America. If you support the market we will guarantee you against losses. Suddenly the richest Americans started buying up shares. The smart speculators that saw the crash coming started doing the same. Suddenly the richest people in America, had a market for their cheap shares, that they couldn’t loose money on. A few Americans started joining the speculators in buying shares. If the rich are buying I’ am too. The wealthiest Americans, got out. By 1933, the market collapsed again. The greedy speculators lost their shirts. The most famous of the Jesse Livermore, considered the greatest stock speculator of all time. He went bust. The great depression began. Only the richest 1% made money buying the dip in 1929, they got guaranteed against losses. The average person, even the rich speculators, they didn’t regain their equity until 1954.

When people chase the rich to make money, it always ends badly. We don’t know what they are thinking or actually doing. Now that most houses are over a million in the lower mainland. People are rushing to Langley to get a house or condo or townhome while they are cheap. Most are buying on assumption the Asians are going to keep buying up the lower mainland and push everyone out.

Fact is even if a million Asians moved here this year. Yes, the prices would skyrocket for a few years. The builders would start building, eventually the supply would catch up to demand and prices would adjust back to income levels. Problem now is, we have people speculating without knowing what the real demand is.

People are seeing listing like this http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2033991/1724-farrell-crescent-delta?property_search=365509160

And going wow, must buy now, even better if its cheap because I’ll make a real fortune in a few short years. That is the most greedy listing in the lower mainland, considering 950 new homes are being built 3kms away. So five years from now, when the poor sap that bought it near a million, see’s the prices going down, is going to want out fast. Those that bought out on Langley because they saw listings like the above, they too are going to feel ripped off. They’ll either dump it to get out and save some of their dwindling equity, etc. And we’ll have the people that will just stop paying.

Heck interest can and do rise. Think people can afford their way over inflated homes? No. This is a disaster, fueled by greedy real estate agents. Plain and simple.

#37 transparency on 02.21.16 at 3:39 pm

#7 Chris in Nanaimo on 02.21.16 at 1:27 pm

I’d like to know how the heck Inflation is calculated in Canada?

======

Send an email to the PMO – we are supposed to have a transparent government now.

#38 Bonhomme Carnaval on 02.21.16 at 3:49 pm

Since all real estate is local, can we (that is you Garth) discuss the other dozen or so Canadian metro-ish areas? I think it’s a well known fact that the YVR, 416, and 905 markets are nuts-O! In Québec, from Montréal to Québec City and from Trois-Rivières to Sherbrooke none of the fundamentals, for valuation & ROI calculations, in the multi-family property sector add up—and have not since 2006/07 in my (humble) opinion!

In addition, vacancy rates are up, way up in some cases well over 4% (and rising fast). The logical conclusion is that rents will decrease or there will be many-a-deals to be had (free months rent). If rents decrease, so do revenues, and so do valuations on multi-family properties—yes / no? So, if the unit price (per door) decreases so does the valuation of condos, and eventually of SFHs—yes / no?

Lastly, add to the mix the Stalinist style rent controls sanctions by the Régie du logement du Québec, and I cannot imagine how real estate prices in the multi-family sector, and by extension, the condo and SFH sectors can continue to increase in La belle province (?).

#39 TerribleDesign on 02.21.16 at 3:50 pm

#24 Buy Bear, Sell Bull

Your site looks like something from the 90’s complete with what looks like sketchy ads at the bottom that appear to be links within your site. Keep trying but as the site looks now…..the internet generation will not take you seriously.

#40 For those about to flop... on 02.21.16 at 3:51 pm

Joking Man….after a session at Senica?

M41BC

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/496057/Kebab-floor-drunk-falls-over-video-Facebook

#41 tundra pete on 02.21.16 at 4:07 pm

Kia’s do suck. I’ve been driving my 1972 Pinto since um… 72. Great car. Never been rear ended so it hasn’t yet become a barbecue on wheels!

#42 Kias suck on 02.21.16 at 4:09 pm

Accusing new Canadians from China of ‘laundering’ money and being criminals is surely beneath us. And Kias suck. — Garth

———–

The two largest (4000+ sf) new houses on the street are owned by Chinese and Indians. They are both rented – for students, studying here in Toronto.

#43 Suede on 02.21.16 at 4:23 pm

Kia’s are fine until you need maintenance. The parts are VERY hard to come by, ask any mechanic on the west coast.

Received word from my lawyer. Runs a 30 person firm that has “never seen so much real estate activity in YVR in the last 25 years”

He says people are writing offers that they don’t have financing for and showing up to him looking to close the transaction.

When he tells them they’re short a few hundred k, they look at him and say they’ll get the money.

He tells them to come back.

They don’t understand that they have to go to the bank. Which in turn doesn’t lend them any more b/c the’ve maxed out on the appraised value.

So then they get a second mortgage to make up the rest.

And he’s never seen it being done so many times, from 500k condos in Burnaby to $2.0M SFH’s in east van.

Welcome to 2016!!

#44 Teddyb on 02.21.16 at 4:31 pm

#19 prairieboy43
If one lives out on the prairie a 300 U.S gallon (1135 l) gasoline bulk tank out behind the shed might be a good idea. In town your neighbours and insurance company might take umbrage at a bulk tank or even a slip tank of gasoline in the garage or driveway and errant fumes a pilot light and the resultant conflagration would make the National News and attract lawyers from far and wide.

#45 Keith in Calgary on 02.21.16 at 4:35 pm

Dear Betty………

To buy now @ the $400K price level is just stupid. Plain and simple, I cannot call it anything else.

In 5 years you’ll have lost probably $100-150K of your initial purchase price in depreciation as the RE market melts down. Your hard earned and saved down payment will be gone for decades. I hver seen this has happened before TWICE IN MY SHORT LIFETIME (I am 55 and live in Calgary) and this time around the circumstances we are facing are the gravest and most serious I have ever seen. In fact, if you review documented history, we are probably in the worst shape economically as a country and continent EVER.

Think about that.

So, sit back, and remember about how hard it was to save the money in the first place, and how impossible it will be to recoup it when one or both of you loses your job and/or the RE market goes down at the same time. You are both under 30 or so…..correct ?

If you must satisfy your hormones, and that is all it really is, that and HGTV propoganda, buy something for $250K like a townhouse maybe further away from where you want to be and finance 95% of it. You’ll easily get CHMC approved.

Do not take out the mortgage with the same bank you have your money with. In fact, do not declare your significant joint cash assets on the mortgage application either. Go underground with your money, it is easy to do legally and I am not going to explain it here. You need to do the research if you want to survive what is coming and cannot be avoided.

If you lose your jobs, get divorced, immediately go BK. If you do your research properly and use your brains, you’ll still have your money hidden away for later. Set the bank up to take the loss if the excrement impacts the whirling blades. No one is going to help you except yourself.

The government sponsored vampire octopus of the FIRE industry (finance, insurance, real estate) is out to screw you out of every penny you have and there will be no grace period for you when you are in trouble.

I don’t charge 7% on the first $100K and then 3% on the remaining balance for this advice, nor do I charge 2-3-4% per annum either. It’s free……so take it for what it is worth.

And what is it worth ? Technically due to recent forex swings I am a liquid cash millionaire with money in 3 continents and property on a beach down south where I will be moving for good very shortly. Went BK 18 years ago…….life is what you make it be. The system that is set up is 100% rigged against you.

Good luck.

#46 The shock - Realties.ca on 02.21.16 at 4:36 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/02/21/the-shock-5/ […]

#47 Grantmi on 02.21.16 at 4:37 pm

10 Nobody on 02.21.16 at 1:39 pm

While here n 604 there are no rental price hikes but renters are getting kicked out to sell. People are being forced to move every couple of years, switch kids to new schools, abandon friends and neighbours (sic)./blockquote>

no.. you’re wrong. BC rental laws are very strict on what the current landlord can do selling their property with you as a renter. If the house sells the new owner can’t kick you out unless they prove that the family is moving in or the IMMEDIATE member of the family is moving in to the suite. Son, Daughter. Uncle and Brother-In-Law not good enough.

Also.. if they give you notice.. they have to give you 60 days notice.. and it’s based on the CLOSING DATE as the 60 day start!! Not the SOLD DATE!!!

also.. they can’t raise rent on you as well, if the previous landlord had just raised it. the contract continues as is.

DO YOU HOMEWORK!!!

#48 Mark on 02.21.16 at 4:39 pm

“He says people are writing offers that they don’t have financing for and showing up to him looking to close the transaction.”

Great post. Thank you very much! Sure destroys the (rather unfortunately concocted, but widely believed) meme that its “Chinese” with “suitcases of cash” are the source of ‘demand’ in the YVR marketplace.

#49 zee on 02.21.16 at 4:48 pm

Garth

Maybe you are right with the house values in North Toronto. Noticed in parts of Markharm, houses set up for multiple offers either did not sell or sold for less than the asking price.

#50 Keith in Calgary on 02.21.16 at 4:57 pm

Forgot to add………..

Do not concern yourself with what is ethical or not. That is irrelevant….the criminal industry you are up against certainly doesn’t care about you, and what is ethical.

Just worry about what is technically legal, and the penalties that apply for infractions to same if deemed illegal. I haven’t broken any laws, you certainly don’t need to either. But if you want to, there’s ways around that too.

#51 sockeye sam on 02.21.16 at 5:10 pm

THIS COULD BE THE START

While at Lord Byng pool over here on Vancouver west side I approached an Asian lady in which I’ve had conversation with over the last three years. She’s a local seasoned realtor. I asked her ,”what’s the latest news on the Vancouver house market? She said, “the Chinese market could be starting to show signs of slowing. She also said, A lot of Chinese have blown their money foolishly on the ponzi scheme stock market. And finally a house over in Kerrisdale has just sold for below list price. Could this be where it starts?

#52 koenig on 02.21.16 at 5:19 pm

Proof the Asians don’t understand North American real estate. https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16475416/2683-CRESCENT-DRIVE-Surrey-British-Columbia-V4A3J9

I’m not offended the price is multi million, even as an atheist its offensive to advertise a property in a country founder on Christian principles. These Asians are mostly guests in our country, its time to send them home!

You first, unless you’re an aboriginal person. I’m guessing, no. — Garth

#53 My dog has issues on 02.21.16 at 5:21 pm

“Those who………slavishly cater to insatiable canine needs….” – Garth

Thanks for the laugh

#54 Silent the people on 02.21.16 at 5:29 pm

“Hell, yes. Betty should buy”

Did I read that right??? Garth is recommending purchasing!

A shock to say the least…

I gave reasons why. Real estate is a useful part of everyone’s net worth – so long as it’s handled correctly, and local conditions are reasonable. — Garth

#55 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 02.21.16 at 5:34 pm

Kids suck!

The Fed raised rates, and yields on the 5,10,30s went down
Monetary policy will not drive mortgage rates except ARMS.

Dogs are the best reason to visit this blog.

Mine is a Portuguese Water Dog.

Betty should definitely find a new rental. Two years of patience should not be squandered at the 11th hour.

#56 Smoking Man on 02.21.16 at 5:42 pm

I remember the concert, Nectonites, Reptilians, Tall whites, and the greys to name a few.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3456741/Apollo-10-astronauts-heard-mysterious-music-far-moon-newly-uncovered-tapes-reveal-no-wasn-t-Pink-Floyd.html?ito=social-facebook

#57 Rick on 02.21.16 at 5:50 pm

Chris in Nanaimo, don’t feel bad. Spoke to two of our “seasoned” citizens yesterday; and they were complaining about their CPP. Apparently, they received a whopping .56 cent increase on their monthly CPP. Not even enough to buy a small Timmies:)

#58 acdel on 02.21.16 at 5:57 pm

I am conflicted on this blog. They were smart enough to save for such an opportunity. If the goal is for a home not an investment then why not and enjoy life! If not, like Rock Beats Paper said “why squander it on the 11th hour”? The world economy is going to take a beating in the next few years; major trouble in China (according to Bloomberg); the middle east is about to blow up, cash is king right now!

No, the world economy is not going to take a beating. It will actually be growing. Cash is always king, but prudent people living in rational markets have no reason not to own property. — Garth

#59 Nobody on 02.21.16 at 6:01 pm

#47 – in theory, however the VPD’s doesn’t have 1000s of officers checking if it really is a family member who moves into the house when you are given notice – or how long afterwards it goes on the market.

#60 nubbers on 02.21.16 at 6:06 pm

Market considerations aside, there is one danger that Betty faces in buying now, if now means before the lease is up.

Betty and other half risk making their negotiation difficult because of time constraints. Instead of taking their time to find somewhere that they like and for the right price, they might find themselves taking whatever they can get in time. They need to get this purchase right, because if the value of the place that they buy drops enough to wipe out their equity, they are going to find it very difficult to move elsewhere, as they would no longer have a deposit.

The landlord might well be trying to find a greater fool/idiot to sell to, before it is to late, so an extension for a month or two might be hard to negotiate. They really need to find somewhere temporary to take the pressure off, even if it means a hotel and kennels.

#61 Yuus bin Haad on 02.21.16 at 6:07 pm

More taxes? There’s always “more taxes”; what’s coming is more aggressive tax collection and enforcement.

#62 For those about to flop... on 02.21.16 at 6:09 pm

#51 sockeye sam on 02.21.16 at 5:10 pm
THIS COULD BE THE START

While at Lord Byng pool over here on Vancouver west side I approached an Asian lady in which I’ve had conversation with over the last three years. She’s a local seasoned realtor. I asked her ,”what’s the latest news on the Vancouver house market? She said, “the Chinese market could be starting to show signs of slowing. She also said, A lot of Chinese have blown their money foolishly on the ponzi scheme stock market. And finally a house over in Kerrisdale has just sold for below list price. Could this be where it starts?

///////////////////////////////
Hey Sockeye ,I wouldn’t read too much into a below list price sale.
I helped build a house last year that was on the market for 13.5 million ,the developer “settled ” for 11.5million..
They paid 4.5million for the block of land,so do the math.
Put up a crazy number,hoping to snag an Asian buyer( the house had an Asian theme) and no big deal if you don’t get that number.

M41BC

#63 Ronaldo on 02.21.16 at 6:10 pm

A great paper on the “Hong Kong Chinese in Vancouver” April 2003.

Everything you needed to know but were afraid to ask. Very enlightening to say the least.

http://mbc.metropolis.net/assets/uploads/files/wp/2003/WP03-12.pdf

#64 The greatest fool.ca on 02.21.16 at 6:31 pm

Buy buy betty.

#65 Ret on 02.21.16 at 6:33 pm

#41 Top Secret Pinto footage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9GGDOUDLhc

I was at a Ford dealer car show in Hamilton last summer and one of the cars there was a Pinto, all original, with under 20,000 miles. Probably the best example left in North America and it drew a crowd for sure.

Thankfully, it had the retro-fit gas tank parts installed so the owner wouldn’t make an ash of himself!

#66 A Canadian Abroad on 02.21.16 at 6:41 pm

#0 Garth Turner

Betty,

Like any asset, patience is rewarded. Remember the words that make financial investors wealthy:

“ALWAYS WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION before buying”

Wait till you see the home prices for a price floor and wait to see if that floor is tested. THEN, you will know when to buy smartly.

Prices have just started to go down. Look at this chart:

https://financialpostcom.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/15yearsofhouse.png?w=620&h=341

You can see if you draw a line at the $350,000 mark that’s the resistance (floor). Wait till prices hit that mark and see if prices go BELOW that mark. If they do, then the next floor is $290-325k.

Technical Analysis is your friend.

#67 Grantmi on 02.21.16 at 6:46 pm

#59 Nobody on 02.21.16 at 6:01 pm
#47 – in theory, however the VPD’s doesn’t have 1000s of officers checking if it really is a family member who moves into the house when you are given notice – or how long afterwards it goes on the market.

Doesn’t matter. do your own DD!! Get it in writing.

Or you’ll be logging a complaint to the BC Landlord / Tenancy Board. And mentioned to the existing landlord, you’ll be contacting the CRA as well on his behalf.

Mention that.. and they both crap themselves.

http://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/housing-tenancy/residential-tenancies

#68 Moister on 02.21.16 at 6:50 pm

Just $55.21 short of having my 5% down. As soon as i hot that mark, I’m buying!

You guys really think people are buying $500,000 homes with $25,000 down? Hahaha. Thats all.

#69 AB Boxster on 02.21.16 at 6:52 pm

Re: House prices

What baffles me is today’s concept of true house ‘value’ and the term ‘rational markets’.

Today a rational market is one where the price of a house ‘only’ costs 3.5 – 4 times household income.

As opposed to ‘irrational markets’ where houses are being sold, to someone, at prices 15 times average houshold income.

Yet the mean, until 2000 was around 2 times household income.

Watched movie ’99 Homes’ the other night.
The RE guy,who is foreclosing in on houses in the US, describes an inventory of pretty nice homes in the 160k range.

Why a home built in Calgary (or some affordable Toronto suburb) is a ‘great value’ at 400-500k, when the same house built in Texas or Nevada is a ‘great value’ at 170K is beyond me.

Sure, 500 k is better than 1.5mill.

But to believe that the 500k is an actual fair representation as to what a house is truly worth, based upon land costs, construction costs, and building depreciation, is kind of a joke.

It would be like people in Canada spending 90K for a new Hyundai, while people in the US spend 30K for the same car.

And then Canadians justifying the purchase because with such high prices, we must obviously be getting more ‘value’.

Canada may be in for a massive correction that the US went through 7 years ago. I don’t really know how it can avoid this.

Of course if we all believe that things are so different in Canada…

#70 Moister on 02.21.16 at 6:56 pm

New real estate model coming for Metro Vancouver. Stay tuned!!

The money will exchange overseas for houses in Vancouver. Here’s hows its going to work when it launches in a few weeks:

Lets say someone wants to sell their house in Vancouver but wants the global market. They will list it through this agency (not MLS) and it will be marketed based on former nationality of seller.

For a Chinese seller here, it will be marketed in China. For an Indian seller, it will be marketed in India. For a Phillipino…

Both buyer and seller must have accounts overseas in the same country. Money will be put into a trust account overseas until title is passed on. Title will change hand here via the services of a lawyer. A 1-2% service fee will be charged and that will be sent to Canada.

It saves the headache for the buyer of moving money overseas and it helps the seller by having a bigger pool of buyers.

#71 betamax on 02.21.16 at 7:10 pm

I live in a Burnaby condo tower and my neighbours in the tower, and in the surrounding towers, are almost exclusively asian. FWIW, I like asian neighbours — in general they’re quiet, respectful, friendly.

I don’t know what their citizen status is. Most have been here a while and are likely to be citizens or at least landed immigrants.

However, most of them don’t seem to work for a living. Many of the owners are young people in their twenties and are remarkably affluent; the garage and streets are full of Mercedes, BMWs, Porsches, etc, and the cars mostly sit there, day and night.

I don’t know where their money came from, but I’d bet dollars to donuts it wasn’t made it Canada.

Has this demographic influenced prices in Burnaby? Hell, yeah.

#72 kommykim on 02.21.16 at 7:11 pm

RE:

#60 nubbers on 02.21.16 at 6:06 pm
Betty and other half risk making their negotiation difficult because of time constraints.

I agree. Buying under time pressure is the worst thing you can do. Especially if the realtor/seller knows this.

#73 Femdom Fist on 02.21.16 at 7:14 pm

I’ll pet a nice dog or cat once in a while, but cheap rent for me is more important.

#74 Paul on 02.21.16 at 7:15 pm

So, if there is a situation where it makes sense to buy then what does it look like in the 604? I’m getting sick of this rental market. We’ve left one place due to mold which the landlord didn’t feel they needed to fix because someone would rent it and all the other places we look at won’t allow pets.

At 32/33, our combined income is $180K. We have $200K in RRSPs and $150K in savings for a down payment. Following the rules of 20% down, “90 minus age” and 30% gross on housing we could spend $750K, be ~20% of gross income on housing and have 42% of assets in real estate.

Now 750 doesn’t get you far here (not a SFH) but it’ll land us a nice townhouse. Here’s my dilemma, I know Vancouver is a bubble. 30% YoY gain is pure speculation. We’re planning on staying long enough to ride out a correction (10+ years) but who wants to buy a place and see the prices dump the following week? What signal do I look for that tells me that it’s wise to buy a place. Wait for monthly pricing updates to stop being new records?

#75 Entrepreneur on 02.21.16 at 7:20 pm

I would not buy a house now, buying into a downturn (unless a sweet deal).

Vancouver Island people used to go over to go over to Vancouver for enjoyment but not anymore. The community connection is gone, no point going over their.

Houses are not a home anymore that is for sure and that ruins communities. (but heck, us common people are just that common people and we don’t have a say anymore, obviously, unless something useful for them. Just want our votes and that is all. Christianity is out the door as far as I see.)

#76 HellandBack on 02.21.16 at 7:22 pm

You left out Victoria to not buy in. It’s downright retarded how packs of people in heat show up at every open house with bidding wars left and right. May be cheaper than the big cities but the mania does not justify the average income by paying over market such massive sums.

They are now resorting to stuffing mailboxes in prime neighborhoods posing as Australians pleading to buy your house privately. Me thinks they are realtors as per the same game going on Vancouver.

#77 TurnerNation on 02.21.16 at 7:38 pm

Canada cannot support Goodwill, Sears, Target, Jacob, Danier stores.
But the luxury of Saks 5th Avenue and Nordstroms is just what we need. Calgary’s Chinook Center mall was an early Nord’s location. See if they last.

https://nowtoronto.com/news/think-free-blog/who-exactly-is-shopping-at-saks-fifth-avenue-in-toronto/

The luxury department store has opened at a time when Canadian consumer debt is at an all time high

#78 Ontario's Left Coast on 02.21.16 at 7:42 pm

Not that I mind, but has anyone noticed the absence of Freedom First of late? I was bored and, upon checking, realized that he hasn’t posted since Valentine’s Day!

My theory: He was shot by Cupid’s arrow and has shacked up with his new love and the three kids from her first marriage. Upon his return, his new handle will be Freedom Fifth.

#79 eggberta on 02.21.16 at 7:42 pm

Garth, I turned a 12,500(first time buyers program) deposit into more than 3 Million in 15years through hard work and sweat equity…not through greed or being house horney…but by carefully staged risk taking and hard work..there are still opportunities for people today…as long as people can delay gratification through discipline….

#80 45north on 02.21.16 at 7:59 pm

I believe Chinese money is having a huge effect in Vancouver. It may be only 1% of the market but it’s having a disproportionate effect.

Quite frankly, how exactly money is taken out of China, I don’t want to know. I mean I want to, but I don’t want to read about it here.

PathControlMonk:

All damage dealt as ki strikes by a monk are multiplied by 1-1/2.

http://www.dandwiki.com/wiki/Path_of_Control,_Ki'seichuu_(3.5e_Monk_Fighting_Style)

You gotta be kidding me!

crossBorderShopper: come to rural Saskatchewan, get a place for 60 grand.

you gotta be kidding me!

Sideshow Rob: The people running the show are politicians and academics. Neither group lives in the real world but no doubt may have read about it. When faced with admitting a mistake they won’t.

pretty funny but as Garth says we just can’t afford a cheaper dollar

bguy1: from your link: As a result of this prolonged binge, Canada’s private sector non-financial debt-to-GDP exceeds the comparable U.S. ratio by its highest level on record:

in 2005/2006, the chart shows the inverse. That is the US debt-to-GDP exceeded the comparable Canadian ratio by its highest level on record. Remember how we patted ourselves on the back and looked all superior. Well it looks like the tables are about to be turned. Looks like we’re in for the hardest sharpest credit contraction ever.

#81 Smoking Man on 02.21.16 at 8:05 pm

“I feel like that perfect female character you’ve been describing in your blog, emotional wife that’s house horny wanting a ‘home’,” says Betty. “We’ve been good at saving, and renting, and the landlord is kicking us out so now I (the wife) want to buy.”

Let’s face it Betty the thought of enriching some ass hole by paYing rent is Un Canadian. Canadians will sacrifice huge so as not to have that feeling of being ripped off.

Altho a balanced portfolio with a small slice of Forex will out preform real estate many times over in the long run. Who the hell other than me knows how to do that.

Oh yes Garth Knows. But again the thought of paying someone for something they think they can do sends angree goose bumps down a Canadian spine.

I listened to the radio this week , some old prick bitching about his financial advisor who told him to hold husky 8 months ago and got creamed.

Now the old prick knew oil was going to shit, but he dident act. At leased he can blame someone.

Real Estate is the only thing Canadians understand and that’s why I will never see a down turn in the gta in my life.

I’ve worked in capital markets for 20 years. And I still make the odd mistake.

Where the hell am I going with this post….

Time to start drinking.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

Reporting live from the losers lounge in Niagarafalls NY.

#82 For those about to flop... on 02.21.16 at 8:07 pm

#78 Ontario’s Left Coast on 02.21.16 at 7:42 pm
Not that I mind, but has anyone noticed the absence of Freedom First of late? I was bored and, upon checking, realized that he hasn’t posted since Valentine’s Day!

My theory: He was shot by Cupid’s arrow and has shacked up with his new love and the three kids from her first marriage. Upon his return, his new handle will be Freedom Fifth.

///////////////////////
Hey OLC,yeah I had noticed but I thought that it was to shake off the imposter.
Another one MIA is our buddy Broke Dick.
Maybe Freedom First got a Broke Dick on Valenties Day and they will come back as either Free Dick or Broke First…

M41BC

#83 Harbour on 02.21.16 at 8:26 pm

I write my sister shared with me on Facebook…

This morning I think of all the pensioners who receive the pension of the old age security, for those who do not know yet we will have an increase of 0.57 per month starting from the end of January, we welcomed 569.95 And we will receive 570.52.
During that time the federal government spends billions for Syrian immigrants. I think that the government should have more respect for the elderly who are facing expenditure growing each year. A question, Mr. Prime Minister what would you do with 0.57 cents a month?.
If you agree with me click and share I think we should all stand up and find this increase is ridiculous.
And to make it known to the government and the most people possible.

Have a good day

#84 Smoking Man on 02.21.16 at 8:27 pm

#78 Ontario’s Left Coast on 02.21.16 at 7:42 pm
Not that I mind, but has anyone noticed the absence of Freedom First of late? I was bored and, upon checking, realized that he hasn’t posted since Valentine’s Day!

My theory: He was shot by Cupid’s arrow and has shacked up with his new love and the three kids from her first marriage. Upon his return, his new handle will be Freedom Fifth.
….

My thinking exactly with an exeption, I’m thinking a 3rd wave feminazi who’s occupation is a gifted actress, am I allowed to call her that . Sounds sexist. Anyway she has probably wheeled him. He’s in heaven right now re thinking his entre philosophy….

He fell victim to her tongue stud. Man are that stupid no matter how strong ones force field is. There is always that chic that can out manouver the smartest dude.

Men are week, unfortunately for the feminazis they have no clue how to trap this beast and ride it out to their financed advantage.

Most feminazis will die poor and alone.

#85 Panhead on 02.21.16 at 8:28 pm

#77 TurnerNation on 02.21.16 at 7:38 pm
Canada cannot support Goodwill, Sears, Target, Jacob, Danier stores.
But the luxury of Saks 5th Avenue and Nordstroms is just what we need. Calgary’s Chinook Center mall was an early Nord’s location. See if they last.

Went into the Nordstroms store in Van at Xmas and was gobsmacked. Mostly very small sizes with very large prices …
There is a new Bass Pro (140,000 sq. ft. I think) opening up in Tsawwassen very soon … see if it can hold on … redneck heaven on the res …

#86 Stoffygirl on 02.21.16 at 8:37 pm

Garth, you shot me down when I complained about HAM over a year ago. I continue to read your blog even tho’ I dont agree with all you say but you have not seen the changes in YVR!!!!!
You seem to think that only 5% of the buyers are HAM but if you go to BC Housing news they have confirmed that in the last six months detached on the West Side was purchased by asians with 36%housewives or students with little income.
In my hood (S. Surrey) a house that was assessed in 2015 for $811K was listed for $l.l Million and sold for $l.41 M (a nondescript 1600 sq. ft rancher at 14435 18 Ave MLS R2034531) I telephoned the realtor to see if this was a typo and he confirmed indeed that was the sale price sold to Asians and he had 4 full back up offers!!!!! What gives?????

Asians from Asia? — Garth

#87 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 02.21.16 at 8:39 pm

kia sucks. hard to imagine that kia maintenance is expensive. inflation is comfortable. usd is strong and stable. life is good in canada (except for the oil sands)

#88 common sense on 02.21.16 at 8:43 pm

#78 West Coast

I’m thinking Freedom finally met the TV of his dreams and has the best of both worlds…

#89 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 02.21.16 at 8:51 pm

#84 Smoking Man on 02.21.16 at 8:27 pm

#78 Ontario’s Left Coast on 02.21.16 at 7:42 pm
Not that I mind, but has anyone noticed the absence of Freedom First of late? I was bored and, upon checking, realized that he hasn’t posted since Valentine’s Day!

My theory: He was shot by Cupid’s arrow and has shacked up with his new love and the three kids from her first marriage. Upon his return, his new handle will be Freedom Fifth.
….

My thinking exactly with an exeption, I’m thinking a 3rd wave feminazi who’s occupation is a gifted actress, am I allowed to call her that . Sounds sexist. Anyway she has probably wheeled him. He’s in heaven right now re thinking his entre philosophy….

He fell victim to her tongue stud. Man are that stupid no matter how strong ones force field is. There is always that chic that can out manouver the smartest dude.

Men are week, unfortunately for the feminazis they have no clue how to trap this beast and ride it out to their financed advantage.

Most feminazis will die poor and alone.

Be careful who you will your billions to SM…. they’ll get you in your grave!

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/ontario-judge-overturns-doctors-will-that-would-have-granted-scholarships-only-to-white-heterosexual-students

#90 Smoking Man on 02.21.16 at 9:06 pm

DELETED

#91 Ontario's Left Coast on 02.21.16 at 9:13 pm

Flop, #82

‘Free Dick’, that’s classic buddy! And he thought nobody took him seriously before!

#92 TRON on 02.21.16 at 9:17 pm

You could argue that government spending to create jobs is a good thing in the right conditions. Today unfortunately are not the right conditions.

Canadian debt is at historical highs and in uncharted waters. Manufacturing, commodities and tech jobs are vanishing. Nothing ‘new’ is on the horizon.

This new spending will do nothing but kick the can down the road and could potentially bankrupt the country.

That’s not our biggest challenge however because economies around the world where our ‘chartered’ banks are invested are shaking.

At least we’ll have music playing while the ship goes down :)

#93 james on 02.21.16 at 9:27 pm

Well, honestly one of the main reasons I purchased my house in Seattle was because landlords were looking askance at my rather large dogs. At least they weren’t on the list of banned breeds that my home insurer sent over.

Good for that couple. Finally a couple for whom it makes sense. They are rare birds, being able to save money.

Returned from a trip to Toronto yesterday. The conversations were hilarious. At least three times I heard people tell each other that ‘prices will keep going up and up’.

New condos by the 427 near that cloverdale mall or whatever it is called. I stare at those cheaply built towers (constructed of glass, no less, in a city that has cold winters) and wonder who would be so foolish. Starting from the low 200s, you can live right by the highway. You couldn’t give me a FREE condo to live there.

#94 Smoking Man on 02.21.16 at 9:34 pm

Well that delete sucked, garth ANY idea how much wasted time I invested in Paul for his story.

Fk it

Where my inspection came for my book. Godth you will enjoy it

https://youtu.be/0quc5bAFbLA

#95 common sense on 02.21.16 at 9:34 pm

#83 Harbour

Be glad you got 57 cents…in 2016 US Seniors on Social Security got NOTHING as there was NO rise in INFLATION.

Seriously…what galaxy are government leaders living in? Smoking Man please tell.

Screw the pensioners and you wonder why Trump and Sanders are doing well…..

#96 NoName on 02.21.16 at 9:37 pm

At least we’ll have music playing while the ship goes down :)

PLAY

#97 RainBird on 02.21.16 at 9:43 pm

Andreas Kargut, who owns a town house in Wellington Court, filed a class-action complaint with the B.C. Human Rights Tribunal claiming he and other strata members were discriminated against by their strata council when it held a meeting Dec. 8 and spoke Mandarin rather than English.

“Please understand the council team for this fiscal is using Mandarin as the preferred language for communication,” council president Ed Mao wrote in an email to strata members Dec. 4.

“Therefore, we have no intention of using English during the meeting on December the 8th.”

#98 acdel on 02.21.16 at 9:45 pm

#84 Smoking Man

Look out man, it’s coming after you, could be one of those so called feminazi’s you described!

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/world/knife-wielding-monkey-terrorizes-men-at-brazilian-bar-after-guzzling-some-rum

#99 Smoking Man on 02.21.16 at 9:49 pm

National anthem should be changed to this.

https://youtu.be/0sB3Fjw3Uvc

#100 Love my Kia on 02.21.16 at 9:50 pm

#5
And Kias suck. — Garth
*****************************
Should I cash in some TFSA funds for a ‘better’ vehicle?

#101 John on 02.21.16 at 9:58 pm

#24 Buy Bear, Sell Bull

Wow. That was very smart to buy just after the 2009 turmoil and lucky that prices have risen to nosebleed levels. I have some advice for you. Sell the house immediately, pocket the 1.2M and add it to your existing investments. Move yourself and your family to Panama and buy a house with an acre of land and walking distance to the beach for $200,000. Never work again, unless it is for fun. Watch from a distance as Vancouver real estate implodes and your friends’ net worth continues to evaporate day after day. Enjoy better food, people, lifestyle, healthcare, etc. Be grateful that you won the lottery and got out of the market just in the nick of time.

#102 Bottoms_Up on 02.21.16 at 10:00 pm

#220 Hope & Change (Canada) on 02.21.16 at 9:34 am
—————————–
It is ignorant to discuss public (federal) service pensions without discussing the reality of contributions, investment and retiree payments. It’s not just for “waking up in the morning”.

#1) the pension is funded with contributions from each employee and retiree. As well, the employer matches the contributions.

#2) for each biweekly paycheque, deductions for this (employee contribution only) equals roughly 12%…go ahead and calculate what this means for your own paycheque (imagine putting aside 12% of each paycheque for your entire career)

#3) the money goes into a separately managed pension account, and is invested by a board of professionals.

#4) retirees then receive their defined benefit pension according to how much they contributed over their career

#5) the pension fund has done better than it’s required targets over at least the past decade.

#6) estimates indicate the fund will continue to grow well into the 2040’s.

#103 Smoking Man on 02.21.16 at 10:01 pm

Men from Canada, something I’m trying to understand, when on the ice anyone even remotely raises an eyebrow of disrespect they get their teeth knocked out.

Yet off the ice your asses are pointing to the sky.

I have a report due to my pay masters on Nectonite. I don’t know how to pencil that observation in.

Help please.

#104 Smoking Man on 02.21.16 at 10:10 pm

A real man with coocunats working in Wynnetario

https://youtu.be/wJVpihgwE18

#105 ed on 02.21.16 at 10:18 pm

Fundamentals out of sync across the board:
I would tell this couple to wait a year or two; RE is too out of sync with fundamentals and if a correction happens it will also affect smaller cities. Just as a bubble is not orderly or logical, so a correction can swing too far the other way. Invest that money for a year or two and then reassess. RE only seems attractive in smaller centers because of price comparisons to bigger ones. A more accurate picture is the run up in the past 15 years were you are buying.

#106 Chris on 02.21.16 at 10:23 pm

I mostly disagree with Garth lately, but today I think he got it right. The RE decision is very much local and personal. If these two are staying put, have reasonably safe careers etc, then buying a reasonably priced place is probably a great decision. Obviously putting 5% down and mortgaging yourself to the hilt with a potential layoff. Lots of people are doing ok, some not so much a few will screw up and lose all – as it is, was and always will be.

#107 Smoking Man on 02.21.16 at 10:24 pm

Trying to write fiction without a good buzz and ear buds at full volume is like a fishermen with just a weight on the end of the line.

Good luck

https://youtu.be/mC57rpO8ChA

#108 Harbour on 02.21.16 at 10:28 pm

http://retirehappy.ca/taking-cpp-early-the-new-breakeven-points/

#109 Shawn on 02.21.16 at 10:37 pm

Creative Destruction

#77 TurnerNation on 02.21.16 at 7:38 pm said:

Canada cannot support Goodwill, Sears, Target, Jacob, Danier stores.

But the luxury of Saks 5th Avenue and Nordstroms is just what we need. Calgary’s Chinook Center mall was an early Nord’s location. See if they last.

*****************************************
Well Goodwill is a different case, perhaps we did not have enough poor people and extreme bargain hunters to support it? And perhaps they were just incompetent.

Target was clearly a case of incompetence from start to finish. They paid $1.8 billion just to take over the leases of Zellers, mostly second-rate locations. Then they tried opening over 100 stores all at once and with poor distribution systems. Finally they shut it down even though it likely would have made an operating profit after sunk costs but the new CEO did not want it on his watch. Basically chose a big bath one time loss over future operating profits combined with GAAP losses. In any case for sure they were incompetent from start to finish. Also I will openly say they were in my opinion unethical to have used bankruptcy protection in Canada when the parent was still very solvent. I consider that to be virtually an international incident. A blackeye for America.

Sears was tired and incompetent as well but smart enough to sell off some locations for millions. When you can sell the rights to lease a location that you don’t even own for $50 million, you do it! No Sears store could dream of making $50 million over the term of that lease.

Danier, I don’t know. Jacob, I don’t know. The reality is retailing is a competitive game.

The world punishes the Weak. Survival of the fittest Nothing wrong with that.

As for Nordstom and Saks we shall see. The current owners of Hudsons Bay / Sak’s are the Baker family of the U.S. and they are VERT smart . The same people that sold those Zellers leases for the outrageous profits.

Yeah some people have record debt. But Canadians are not all created average. Some have loads of money. Some are owed all that debt rather than owing it.

#110 Bottoms_Up on 02.21.16 at 10:37 pm

#83 Harbour on 02.21.16 at 8:26 pm
—————————-
What is OAS?

It is a government handout, funded by general revenues.

It has nothing to do with other government commitments, including sponsoring refugees, buying arctic icebreakers or investing in infrastructure.

#111 Shawn on 02.21.16 at 10:45 pm

What Galaxy Are they In?

#95 common sense on 02.21.16 at 9:34 pm
#83 Harbour

Be glad you got 57 cents…in 2016 US Seniors on Social Security got NOTHING as there was NO rise in INFLATION.

Seriously…what galaxy are government leaders living in? Smoking Man please tell.

*********************************
Perhaps the Galaxy where gasoline is down under two bucks a gallon probably everyplace in the U.S.A. and under $1.50 in a lot of places?

Perhaps the galaxy where they actually measure inflation that than relying on anecdotal and selective opinions?

Is anyone ready for negative cost of living adjustments to pensions if we get deflation? Why not? Sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander? (Most if not all pensions will not decrease if there is deflation, even the indexed ones. How is that fair?)

#112 RimJabba on 02.21.16 at 10:45 pm

#81 Smoking Man on 02.21.16 at 8:05 pm

Housing prices will soon be irrelevant. Saudi Arabia has nukes, Turkey and Russia shelling each other, and half the Canadian oil companies bonds just got downgraded to junk status. Wait until the defaults come in the next few months, Saudi Arabia and Iran are having an oil Jihad, going to flood the world with crude to punish their enemies. They can go to $10/barrel and still make dough, we are broke under $60.

You might want to swap out your FOREX fedora for a draft dodge fedora and some cash out of the banks. What it looks like, is we have an imminent nuclear war in the middle east, old Yellen looks to raise rates in the US again in March’s FOMC. I think we are going to see Deutsche Bank default soon.

We have a flock of black swans coming. If you think a possible nuclear world war and derivatives collapse is good for housing keep on going with FOREX and RE.

I have a feeling DB’s $66 Trillion in OTC derivatives might throw a wrench into your profits.

The queen on England wished us a merry christmas this year, and then went on to say it will be our last. Sounds like a promising omen for this year. Even the pope got in on the action.

I went from shorting tech stocks, to shorting CAD, shorting OIL, now I’m out of things to short, and with whats going on, I think I’ll go long canned food and log cabins in the woods.

Remember to unplug your modem. — Garth

#113 Smoking Man on 02.21.16 at 10:46 pm

To my feminazis fans

https://youtu.be/HHjKzr6tLz0

To bad you will never ride that red converatable to area 51. And a grill cheese sandwich at little alien in racial navada.

Continue your man hating. There is prizes for you..

Stay in your safe space. ..

#114 JSS on 02.21.16 at 11:09 pm

I don’t necessarily agree with today’s blog regarding the couple buying a house. House prices are still way too high everywhere, job stability is at an all time low, raises (for those still with jobs) are non existent, and there’s a good chance at least one of the two household earners is going to lose their job in the years to come. House prices need to drop to around 2-2.5x annual family income to make it worthwhile. I’m referring to an average home here.

Re. Kia – I think they’re doing well enough, and I’m seeing more of them on the road each day. Besides, no one became wealthy driving a high end car to work everyday.

#115 hope & ruin on 02.21.16 at 11:12 pm

Not sure where the cut-off for local is. My hometown is about an hour from downtown toronto. In medium traffic. House prices have definitely outpaced inflation. But not the same lunacy as yyz. But most people commute to gta for work. I think if gta prices dropped 20% it would hit our area hard too.

But if I was in Betty’s position I still wouldn’t buy. To take a line from Trudeau’s book: “because it’s 2016”. And the economy looks like crap. I would sit tight for one more year. See how things look a year from now.

One observation from a smaller, regional market outside the GTA. I notice millennials use 5% down payments and low rates to skip the starter homes. So millennials in the cities can only afford small starter homes. Millennials in these markets just buy more house.

#116 Smoking Man on 02.21.16 at 11:14 pm

Smoking weed in a non smoking room

How does a dyslexic spell . Ah bananas trying to take out eye balls.

https://youtu.be/9muzyOd4Lh8

#117 JSS on 02.21.16 at 11:22 pm

Re. Nordstroms/Saks.

As some Canadians have gotten poorer over the last two decades, other Canadians have gotten wealthier over the same time. Family inheritances, executive jobs, etc.

I feel there is a growing market for high end retailers in Canada, at about the same rate as there is for food banks.

#118 reality on 02.21.16 at 11:35 pm

Sure some Canadians are wealthy, but most are paper millionaires, with no real liquidity. I do know some compounding interest savers. Family friends. Husband worked at the BC Ferries, wife was a teacher. They lived off the husbands earnings. Saved the teachers salary. For at least 15 years they lived very frugally, no expensive family vacations, drove the same cars bought in the 1970’s. Even paid off the house. Yes, they are now cash millionaires. Good for them. But they can’t afford to live like most pictures how millionaires live. Hate to break it, a million isn’t very much money now and doesn’t earn that much money in the bank or in other safe passive income tools. Basically a million or even two in cash, well its not rich!

A real millionaire generates enough income per year that they could spend a million dollars without worry. The rich saver millions are like lotto winners, once you spend that money its gone. They don’t have the means to replace the principal.

Now we have a situation, the lower mainland is rapidly becoming unaffordable. The fact this is mostly driven by the belief foreign investors mainly from China are or will buy every house in the lower mainland, is highly foolish. You can’t predict behavior! Plain and simple, speculation on rumor and belief a group of people are going to do something. Vancouverites deserve to loose their shirts.

#119 hope & ruin on 02.21.16 at 11:37 pm

girlfriend drives a new hyundai elantra. Seems like a good car so far but we’ll see in the future. Came with lots of bells and whistles. And a good price.

No real complaints after 20k km. Early days still. I used to mock kia’s too. Had to stop when I admitted to liking the hyundai.

#120 ozy - aren't those prices yet down....lol on 02.21.16 at 11:40 pm

aren’t those prices yet down….lol

loosing my patience

#121 S.Bby on 02.21.16 at 11:44 pm

#71 betamax
However, most of them don’t seem to work for a living.

None of my Asian neighbors have any lights on at 7 AM when I get up to go to work.

#122 IKnow on 02.21.16 at 11:48 pm

#24 Buy Bear, Sell Bull on 02.21.16 at 2:45 pm
We bought into North Vancouver in 2010 after “bearing” it for 8 years. I’ve been reading this blog since 2008. I still like to think I’m a bear, but man do I wake up feeling like a bull lately.

We bought at $800K. Homes down the road are listing for $1.6M and selling for over $2M a few days later. We feel good with our property being bigger and better. Wife is saying sell. I say party on – for now. The reality is that the house could drop way below $800k and we would still be fine with a well diversified portfolio.

————————————-

Congrat to another house lottery winner.

And the fact is there are tens of thousands of current or recent house owners in the same ecstatic frame of mind.

This is the housing reality in YVR folks.
HAM has been a strong catalyst.
They show their presence, ethnic Chinese turn believers, and the fever then spreads all over.

Many tens of thousands of house owners have been rewarded beyond fantasies.
This is the new normal and new fundamentals for YVR house valuation.

Conventional thinking of “Canadian fundamentals”, “reversion to the mean” etc have not applied in the past decade and, unless Aliens attack, will likely not happen in the coming decade.

#123 Ret on 02.21.16 at 11:56 pm

1. Betty, hold off until prices drop enough to put a new Kia in the driveway. But, if I saw a decent place with lots of fairly recent updates in an acceptable area, pull the trigger!

2. New presentation centers in Oakville along Dundas have gone parabolic. $650,000 for a new townhouse, $1,100,000 for 2250sf on a 38 ft lot. 95% sold on the survey plans. Lots of HAM intently looking but the parking lot outside told the real story. Crap cars, no money.

I hope that they put down the $60,000 in deposits due over the first 4 months after offer for their late 2017 closing dates. Smart. Lotsa luck flipping before close at these prices.

Used is just as nuts. Looked at a listing 10 days ago for $729,000, but the address still had old internet info from last summer showing an asking price of $667,000. So it didn’t sell for $667 but the new price is $729? Hope you find a sucker that will pay the new price.

#124 reality on 02.22.16 at 12:08 am

Another besides no real purchasing power. Just because we have wealthy Canadians, doesn’t mean they will step up and start buying houses. Again we can’t predict how or why a group will spend their money. If we could, there would be far less failed ventures and products, etc.

The thing I don’t like about Vancouver (all of Canada), its very hard to get actual data, like if the house sold or was it taken off the MLS. If it did sell, you can’t find what it sold for. We also don’t have an accurate days on the MLS. I’m watching a listing in Victoria, listed last year. It appeared sold as it disappeared off the MLS, several weeks later it was listed again and advertised as a new to the market listing. Then they raised the price! Now what if someone didn’t see the previous listings and didn’t know the sales history, suddenly it sells fast in their eyes. Well it would be false data. The USA has all of this available. You can track a house all the way back to the 80’s.

Right now Id like to know if Tsawwassen really sells at over a million for a tear down. Or did Tsawwassen sellers push their real estate agents to list over a million. If I was a seller or a buyer Id like to know reality. Real estate agents sometimes will do anything for a listing, even over price them. Can hear it now, seller goes well a crappy tear down in Vancouver is worth $2million, saw it in the paper. So my Tsawwassen starter home must be worth a million.

We can’t predict how or why people will do things. But I don’t think wealthy saver Canadians are going to get caught up in this real estate madness. Yes, I know what my crap house is worth. I could sell it for a good profit. But then I look at what’s available, the profit is not worth the squeeze. Know what my house is worth in this crazy market? Its priceless!

#125 Moz on 02.22.16 at 12:29 am

What the hell do you mean taxes are going up???

#126 kommykim on 02.22.16 at 1:05 am

RE:

#121 S.Bby on 02.21.16 at 11:44 pm
None of my Asian neighbors have any lights on at 7 AM when I get up to go to work

That’s because they got up at 5:30am and are already at work.

#127 Rick on 02.22.16 at 1:10 am

My ppty tax assessment for land value went up 280000 from last year while my job income was 59000. Something seriously wrong. Yeah theres an inquiry into shadow flipping but thats only half of it. Chinese money still flowing in due to fears of their economy collapsing. They are giving it to their relatives who are canadian citizens who then buy & sell one principal property tax free. Thats why we see Chinese buying up everyrhing but govt stats report only 1% of sales are from off shore. They not only are buying up all our land but avoid paying any taxes too. Only Revenue Canada has the power to look at each transaction & trace where the funds for each property came from & put a stop to this madness!

#128 bob on 02.22.16 at 1:39 am

There is stories all over town about housing getting over ask, etc. Unless we have data, Canadians shouldn’t make financial decisions based on stories and rumor. I watch most of the lower mainland and don’t see houses flying off the MLS.

I was in the fancy car business, I know for a fact back in the 1990’s, almost all the Mercedes, BMW’s, Porsches and Jaguars, sold new at the dealer was on finance or lease. Its why these cars now, more volume is sold today, tank in resale value. The market is flooded with them, its harder and more expensive to finance a used one. The only three back in the 90’s, not financed was Rolls Royce, Ferrari and Lamborghini. Back then they sold very few new ones. Hence you don’t see many of these cars used from the 80’s and 90’s. With better less expensive finance and lease options, those three are now just like the others. People see these cars on the street and think the driver is rich. They may have some money, but its still on credit and many don’t have real wealth.

You do know that all these luxury brands offer short term leases for foreign students? Most of the young Asians cruising Vancouver, borrowed the money to do it. Canadians can get credit in the U.S, from their banks, nose bleed interest rates, but with no U.S, credit history it can be done. So how do we know Asians coming here are all rich? We don’t!

I know a guy, high up in a brokerage firm. He took a well known company public in Canada. He made lots of money. He was chartering jets. Had expensive cars, etc. Bought a very nice multi million dollar house. The stock fell apart. He lost his job over it. I knew the owner of the dealership he bought a car at. The guy within weeks of losing his job was at the dealer looking for a loan against that car and all his cars. He was also willing to fire sale them for cash. Even people with nice houses and fancy cars get into trouble.

Flip side. I had a Rolls Royce, a 77 Corniche coupe with low kilometers. It was just freshly restored. I bought it from the Rolls Royce dealer, it was a customers car, they couldn’t pay the bill. I had a guy who looked homeless come up to me at seven eleven, he was excited to see the car. The bum guy bought it $60k cash! Moral of the story, cant tell a book by its cover, just like you can’t predict the buying habits or financial position of Asians.

80% decline this month in Hong Kong real estate. We could have some money coming for safety. We could also have sellers just as easily.

#129 SMA on 02.22.16 at 2:00 am

Remember to unplug your modem. — Garth

Haha, that’s one of the reasons I enjoy reading your site 6 days a week. Your sense of humour is out of this world, thank you for taking the time to write daily!

#130 Turtle on 02.22.16 at 2:11 am

Re: KIA sucks

I don’t have a luxury like many of you here to choose vehicle by it looks. I just don’t fit in many of them. Kia, Toyota, Honda, Nissan – they are all suck… They don’t have any cars as big as Ford Taurus 2013, where you can put a person 6’6” on a back seat very comfortably.

I have been driven Fords, Jeeps, Buicks all my life and never regretted.

P.S. And I am not even the biggest in my family.

#131 Popeye the Sailor Man on 02.22.16 at 3:07 am

I own, bought in late 2009 in Alberta after listing our first home on Vancouver Island South in Sept 2008 and selling in Feb 2009. We lost out on some of our paper gains on the first house but rented for a while while we shopped and found a house that fit our needs for the right price.

The house we got had three price drops and did not show well due to clutter and the over extended couple sold it at the price needed to discharge the mortgage.

They got a fair deal since prices softened up a bit more after and they were weeks away from losing the house and declaring bankruptcy. We got a good deal as we got alot of house for the money at the time, The house as far as we can tell has not changed in value very much maybe up 8% or less which realtor fees and other costs will eat most of that up.

So after 7 years were showing a modest gain, we follow the rule of 90 and are glad we bought and can handle if prices drop 10-20 easily. Wont like it but will have to lump it because it is out of our control.

Besides I have mixed feeling on prices, since I have 12 nieces and nephews in early 20’s all entering into the house horny years. Every one in our extended family are home owners so they are likely to follow in fact two have already. So lower prices will help all of them reduce risk when they do buy.

PS the extra down payment rules don’t apply to our house since it is under that limit. If you buy now or in the near future ensure you get to know your market, make reasonable offers as a buyer knowing there is down side risk. and not over extend your self to get into a house. A loss of about a price of a car over a few years is to much maybe your not in the right time for you to buy. Anyway try not to buy with a rush or a fixed date that is when you pay more than you need or worse get the wrong house for your needs.

#132 Mark on 02.22.16 at 4:27 am

“We’re planning on staying long enough to ride out a correction (10+ years) but who wants to buy a place and see the prices dump the following week? What signal do I look for that tells me that it’s wise to buy a place. Wait for monthly pricing updates to stop being new records?”

Look for the price to rent multiple to become reasonable (ie: 150 or less). Look for the P/E multiple to come down to 10-15. Look for credit only to be available for diligent savers with significant down-payments, not 5% down mortgages available to any random yahoo. Look for housing to cost beneath 4X income.

The amount of debt (nearly all housing is bought with large amounts of debt — the “HAM” myth is exactly that!) used in the Vancouver area pretty much assures that these metrics will eventually be hit again. Debt accentuates the highs, but the collapse of debt accentuates the lows as well.

Till then, keep reading Garth, in particular his comments about a ‘balanced portfolio’

#133 Cash Millionaire on 02.22.16 at 4:37 am

“People actually have less disposable income lately. As predicted, inflation’s taken a big turn higher as the dollar swooned. Veggies jumped 18% year/year last month after a 13% surge in December, and as the cost of living rises, family cash flow falls. This is why fewer people are house-shopping.”

Taxes, be they direct or indirect are another contributing factor to the dearth of disposable income experienced by all Canadians. Look at how your car insurance bill has gone up, heat, light, school fee’s, garbage collection, licenses etc etc etc.

Seniors are shivering in the dark, literally. They can’t afford to eat and can’t afford the electricity to heat the home. Don’t think any seniors are watching cable anymore either as that has become egregiously expensive, none of them have telephones anymore.

The inflation numbers put out by Poloz and that gang is totally BS, we all know that prices for everything have gone up so much more than the government reports.

I’m in a unique situation as a cash millionaire in any currency. It hasn’t been easy. I had to leave Canada to keep the money I saved. The expense of living in Canada are just too high for what you get in return. I will never send another dime to Ottawa, and that’s why I’ll die a cash millionaire.

#134 Freeman on 02.22.16 at 6:32 am

Here in Waterloo Ontario houses are just FLYING !
A ‘for sale’ sign is posted, and in less than 5 days a ‘SOLD’ sticker is plastered on it.

Just down the street a neighbor sold his old CR-V and bought himself a brand new Mercedes G-wagon, a 2016 Mercedes Benz G63 AMG. Big black, ugly. I don’t know why he would get such a thing, it looks sort ugly, I liked his old CR-V more. He works as a manager at a local Value Village, so I have no idea how he was able to swing a car loan like that? Must be massively in debt now. Debt seems to be the TRENDY thing these days.

Saw a yellow Ferrari the other day, parked beside a red Lamborghini. I’d swear, I must be in Italy or something.

#135 George S on 02.22.16 at 7:02 am

Someone wrote:
“#19 prairieboy43
If one lives out on the prairie a 300 U.S gallon (1135 l) gasoline bulk tank out behind the shed might be a good idea. …. the resultant conflagration would make the National News and attract lawyers from far and wide.

Almost all urban centres have bylaws against bulk fuel in residential areas. If you are going to do this be aware that unless you have a brand new 300 gallon tank and use plenty of fuel conditioner and get ethanol free premium gasoline from Shell (the others may have Ethanol in them) by summer the fuel will start going off and will start F ing up the fuel system in all your small engines and your vehicles. You will regret the day you did this. I know because I did it. You will become an expert at rebuilding fuel systems.

#136 Debt increasing among boomers, vanishing yield. Oh my! on 02.22.16 at 7:33 am

With the current disturbing trend of vanishing yields at the same time that debt is increasing, I imagine that boomers are going to be in a world of hurt over the next decade if the current trend continues. So, I wonder:

What are the first assets that boomers are likely to liquidate in order to raise cash? The last? Perhaps there are some indicators that can be gleaned by watching certain assets given the above patterns… Thoughts?

#137 Herb on 02.22.16 at 7:37 am

#102 Bottoms_Up,

you will be responsible for causing cognitive dissonance in Right wingnuts on this board!

#138 busman7 on 02.22.16 at 7:49 am

Ah geesh, Kias don’t suck

https://picasaweb.google.com/101406064280344293884/Kia?authkey=Gv1sRgCPaXvZ3ciMeoYw#6027399772790208114

#139 Herb on 02.22.16 at 7:51 am

#124 Reality,

“… its very hard to get actual data …”

That’s because our economic and political reality is that the originators of data ensure that only data that are good for them are published and easily accessible.

It wouldn’t be useful to have elections on the basis of facts vice induced delusions, or to have consumers buy on the basis truth in advertising and a genuinely free market.

The real competition is in the manipulation of smoke and mirrors.

#140 fancy_pants on 02.22.16 at 8:15 am

Hi Betty,
If you are not two dimensional with a significant other by the name of Archie, and you are actually reading this, may I suggest it sounds like you are in a good position; financially, life stage, and location, to pull the trigger on a RE purchase. Happy house hunting. even if RE goes down, who cares … IMO, a primary residence is an investment in making memories and doing life, not an ‘investment’ in making $ or a quick gain.

ps. don’t let Veronica tell you otherwise. And stay away from the jugheads.

#141 Freeman on 02.22.16 at 8:16 am

Here is a quote from this site, where it says that Vancouver is the 2nd more expensive city in the ENTIRE WORLD to buy a house:

http://www.destinationtips.com/advice/10-cities-housing-prices-insane/9/

QUOTE: (( “This west coast Canadian jewel is the second most unaffordable city in the world when it comes to housing prices. Yet it offers such a tempting lifestyle, people will extend themselves to house-poor extremes to try to make it work. The market has been driven up by wealthy Asian investors who adore this Pacific Rim metropolis, for good reason. With a median home price of $704,800 and a median household income of $66,400, Vancouver’s Median Multiple is 10.6. First-time buyers and middle-income workers are pretty much squeezed out of this fabulous city.”))

If you click the button on that page, it brings us to the next city: #1 Most insane place to buy a house is Hong Kong, China, with a Median Multiple of 17.0

So I guess the Chinese see Vancouver as a bargain; our prices could rise another 30% and still be considered ‘Cheap’ for the Chinese.

#142 maxx on 02.22.16 at 8:27 am

#7 Chris in Nanaimo on 02.21.16 at 1:27 pm

….”I’m guessing the published inflation rate is calculated using the same Frankenumber algorithm the CREA uses….”

Sounds about right to me. I tend to ignore that particular stat – I toggle between boredom and annoyance whenever it’s released.

#143 acdel on 02.22.16 at 8:39 am

No, the world economy is not going to take a beating. It will actually be growing. Cash is always king, but prudent people living in rational markets have no reason not to own property. — Garth
————————————————————
They seem to have a good head on their shoulders and I am sure that they will the decision that suites them.

Regarding the economy; what I will agree with you is to invest long and stay diversified and keep some cash on the side.

There are too many economists,etc, from different news orgs, saying the next couple of years is going to be a real challenge for the world economy. Out here on the streets, things are bleak!

#144 Rick on 02.22.16 at 9:02 am

#102 Bottoms_Up, Easy to pay 12% to a pension plan, when a government worker earns around 20 – 25% more than the average person; in the private sector, doing the same job.

Hope your rant made you feel better:)

#145 Shawn on 02.22.16 at 9:06 am

Is All Money from government Welfare?

#110 Bottoms_Up on 02.21.16 at 10:37 pm said:

—————————-
What is OAS?

It is a government handout, funded by general revenues.

It has nothing to do with other government commitments, including sponsoring refugees, buying arctic icebreakers or investing in infrastructure.

*****************************************
If that is true despite the fact that many recipients paid taxes for decades then I guess all government money received from general revenue is welfare.

Residents of Alberta (call them Team Alberta) who whine that Albertan’s federal taxes far exceed federal spending in Alberta are implicitly saying that they are not getting their full share of federal government welfare and handouts from general revenue?

#146 salonist on 02.22.16 at 9:07 am

Japanese Seeking a Place to Stash Cash Start Snapping Up Safes

Negative interest rates spur sales of safes—a place where the interest rate on cash is always zero

#147 Penny Henny on 02.22.16 at 9:18 am

#83 Harbour on 02.21.16 at 8:26 pm
I write my sister shared with me on Facebook…

This morning I think of all the pensioners who receive the pension of the old age security, for those who do not know yet we will have an increase of 0.57 per month starting from the end of January, we welcomed 569.95 And we will receive 570.52.
During that time the federal government spends billions for Syrian immigrants. I think that the government should have more respect for the elderly who are facing expenditure growing each year. A question, Mr. Prime Minister what would you do with 0.57 cents a month?.

///////////////////////////////////////

57 cents. Hmmm lets see. When I was a kid that would get you 171 Mojos

http://www.treasureislandsweets.co.uk/penny-chews/mojo-chews.html

#148 Jamie Dimon on 02.22.16 at 9:52 am

#112 rimjabba

You think there is imminent nuclear war and you’re worried about not having enough things to short? My god man, check your meds and lighten up.

#149 Grey Dog on 02.22.16 at 9:58 am

Zee, I totally agree that prices in Markham and Unionville have levelled out in my opinion since last summer. If your home didn’t sell during the March Break 2015, you had a l o n g s l o w summer of showings, and were disappointed in the final sale price.

Two areas still doing well and getting sold quickly, are Berczy public school district (rating 10) and 50 yr old homes off Main Street Unionville which has nice homes on HUGE lots…these homes are now being torn down and replaced with mega mansions.

In my opinion, selling in Unionville, put it on market March 1 for open houses during March break.

#150 cramar on 02.22.16 at 10:00 am

It’s ironic. Half way through the bio on Betty, I’m thinking Garth will recommend a rare buy. It is a good post to show that Garth is not anti-RE, just anti-financial-stupidity. It would have been better for us to know Betty’s age to calculate rule of 90, but sounds like Garth has done that for her in the background. All the best to her!

. . .

A couple days ago the TO news was taking about 2% inflation rate due to rising food prices. They interviewed a senior at the supermarket complaining that she cannot afford some fruits and veggies now. “Asparagus is for rich people.”

She alluding that she would have to sit in her house and cut back on certain food items. I got the impression that she probably owned her house in Toronto (maybe even mortgage free), but now cannot afford some food items.

Sell the stupid house and you can afford asparagus!

#151 maxx on 02.22.16 at 10:05 am

#18 kommykim on 02.21.16 at 2:11 pm

“RE:

#7 Chris in Nanaimo on 02.21.16 at 1:27 pm
“By understating inflation, sovereign states can inflate away their debts and keep people spending (generates tax revenues).”

Important item. True in principle, but not this time.

And most people just aren’t buying it.

Global governments have now firmly painted us all (save perhaps the 1%) into uncharted, out-sized debt corners that obscenely wasteful QE wealth expropriation is no longer effective to solve. It will not buy a solution. It only transports this fiscal disaster to the next round of QE. Or the next election.
Probably now rinsed and repeated past the point of no return.

Meantime, global governments have the unmitigated gall to don a derisive attitude towards savers and those who wish to try to stabilize their own lives by being fiscally prudent, given the absence of sensible government approaches to macroeconomic health.

All the “concern” diffused in MSM about the precious, coveted middle class is absolutely laughable. Young people cannot get a start in life, seniors writhe in worry and most have no idea if their jobs or savings will last. No great mystery as to why people are “just not doing their patriotic duty” by spending more money they don’t have.
Most of our leaders ought to put down their communications devices (btw, most of those “communications” are a total waste of time, imho) and give their collective heads a serious shake.

Just as ZIRP and NIRP prolong the ineffective agony, so does QE and the unforgivably stupid notion of “whatever it takes”.
Frustrated and mindless foaming at the mouth.
Quel crap shoot.

People are generally unhappy and many are running scared. How productive and creative can such a population be? How good is that for a nation? How many will just give up? Not so good for the productivity stats, eh wot?!

Let’s face it – global leaders’ performance is just not that….oh, what’s the word….bright. Apart from having irretrievably fallen in love with the Greed Speed tax track of questionable, opaque and creative “investment vehicles”, they twist in the wind like puppets to the whining and threats of impending further economic disaster (à la “it will all be on you, the gubbmint” if rates are raised, subsidies are not forthcoming, this accommodation doesn’t happen) by corporations.

And what of the annual tax dump on temporary, infrastructure “non-jobs”. Quel farce.

Pining for and vainly attempting to return to the sunshiny days of ’99. Reminds me of a line from the film “Trading Places: “turn those machines back on!!!!”

#152 Ronaldo on 02.22.16 at 10:31 am

#136

”What are the first assets that boomers are likely to liquidate in order to raise cash? The last? Perhaps there are some indicators that can be gleaned by watching certain assets given the above patterns… Thoughts?”

The first thing I would do is kick the ”ass-ets” out of the basement dwellers that occupy space that could be rented out for extra income and that would help reduce living expenses by at least 50%. One of the biggest problems we have nowadays is 30 year olds who are still living with mommie and daddy. In our days we left home at 18 and weren’t a burden on our parents.

When are you planning to move out?

#153 Herb on 02.22.16 at 10:37 am

#144 Rick,

for some reason that seems to depend on whom you ask:

– the Federation of Independent Business, for instance, at http://tinyurl.com/hkfvybm

or

– the Centre for Policy Alternatives, at http://tinyurl.com/jldsdj4

#154 Grantmi on 02.22.16 at 10:41 am

#112 RimJabba on 02.21.16 at 10:45 pm

Remember to unplug your modem. — Garth

…. And don’t forget your tinfoil hat when you leave your bunker.

#155 Walmark of sadkatoon on 02.22.16 at 10:43 am

forget buying property in vancouver or toronto. prices are too high and going higher. join the billionaires in Puerto Rico

http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/21/investing/puerto-rico-foreclosure-crisis/

#156 Shawn on 02.22.16 at 11:03 am

Government Waste

To really identify government waste one should look at the real economy of where labour and physical materials are applied and not just at money flows.

Transfers of money are not waste since someone gets the money and can spend it on something useful.

True waste is things like building an opulent office tower where the opulence provides no benefit.

I have a hard time thinking of things that government spends on that are truly wasteful in the sense of creating useless assets (say a giant monument that no one cares about).

Hiring too many employees to do useless tasks is a waste of human resources.

I am sure others have examples.

#157 Debt increasing among boomers, vanishing yield. Oh my! on 02.22.16 at 11:07 am

The first thing I would do is kick the ”ass-ets” out of the basement dwellers that occupy space that could be rented out for extra income and that would help reduce living expenses by at least 50%. One of the biggest problems we have nowadays is 30 year olds who are still living with mommie and daddy. In our days we left home at 18 and weren’t a burden on our parents.

When are you planning to move out?

Haven’t lived with mommy and daddy for 20 years.

I guess my post hit a nerve… Getting a little worried about your retirement funds – or lack thereof?

#158 milo on 02.22.16 at 11:15 am

Asia itself is changing, it no longer cheap to make cheap goods there. The good are more expensive, but still cheap quality. People are not buying them in mass quantities. During dollar parity, massive numbers of British Columbians would cross border shop. Now that American goods are not as cheap, they are staying home. Still some deals in the U.S. but overall its not worth it. Chinese goods, still a good deal but overall they are not worth it!

There is trillions of dollars floating around the globe 24hrs a day, some lands here, some doesn’t. Overall real estate has been slow and steady, you might have made a little or lost a little. Trends and habits change, people don’t need to work in Vancouver, like they do in NYC and Hong Kong. We also have a lot more land then those places.

In general Asians are the classic herd mentality, they follow the masses. Trends are interesting to watch. I like raw land, especially farm land, its dirt cheap and gets a low property tax rate. Farmers will also lease the land. Interesting thing about farmers, if they see another farmer making more money with another crop, you see farmers planting new crops. In Washington State, that new crop is marijuana, everyone and their dog wants a growers license. The government is licking their lips expecting huge tax revenue. They all think everyone will be smoking marijuana. Right now marijuana is making huge money, the supply of legal marijuana is very low. But once the growers with licenses get warehouse space to grow, they’ll be washed in marijuana. The problem with the supply, because its still federally illegal, the banks wont loan growers money, they can’t afford to start up. In Colorado, marijuana business has fallen sharply, the government admits the tax revenue is not there. See the underground growers have a huge supply, they have a price advantage over the legal heavily taxed expensive marijuana. We see the same thing with BC’s premier betting on LNG or Warren Buffet investment in IBM.

The trend in 10 years, nobody wants to live in Vancouver, the developers develop to meet the condo and townhome demand. All those speculator townhome and condo buyers loose their shirts, because they lack capital. Housing prices drop, rates go up, etc. At this speculation in Vancouver lower mainland real estate is so risky, you are better spreading $600k over a bunch of mining penny stocks.

#159 Sly Fox on 02.22.16 at 11:20 am

#82 For those about to flop… on 02.21.16 at 8:07 pm
Hey OLC,yeah I had noticed but I thought that it was to shake off the imposter.
Another one MIA is our buddy Broke Dick.
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\////////////////////

Broke Dick is now Penny Henny

#160 Shawn on 02.22.16 at 11:29 am

Proof People Believe What They Want To

A new survey out indicates that 44% of Canadians think that climate change is mostly human caused.

But near Ft. McMurray that percentage drops to 14%.

This is more proof that people tend to believe exactly what is convenient for them to believe.

Live in Vancouver and take transit to work? Then it’s easy to believe driving a car is evil.

Live in Ft. McMurray and work in the oil sands. Then no way do you believe fossil fuel is evil.

“Whose bread I eat, his song I sing”

And once the human brain adopts a certain view on a topic it seems to take a nuclear explosion to move that person off that view. Additional facts and evidence of a contrary view are of no interest or impact once a mind has been made up.

This is just the way things are and it can be useful to keep in mind when trying to sway the public. Don’t bother with actual facts and evidence. Use exaggerations and cherry picked “facts” (which need not actually be true) to push emotional buttons. That is the way to sway the public. It’s sad but true.

This of course applies to things like the impact of Asian money on house prices, the dangers of government debt, the true inflation rate, the true unemployment rate, whether house prices will fall. Mere facts and evidence are of almost no use in attempting to change anyone’s views on these matters. If the facts and evidence are contrary then they will be viewed as manipulated and false.

What to do about it? I don’t know. Maybe just ignore contrary views as trying to get anyone to change their view is usually a waste of time.

#161 Ace Goodheart on 02.22.16 at 11:31 am

Here it is folks:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/02/22/liberals-to-roll-out-first-budget-march-22-amid-financial-uncertainty.html

18.4 Billion. And more the next year. If you live in Ontario, prepare to be taxed into the abyss. Can’t wait to see what the Ontario Liberals are going to run in terms of deficits. We are heading towards a situation where our government’s largest expense per year, after health care, will be interest.

#162 Mark on 02.22.16 at 12:26 pm

“18.4 Billion. And more the next year. “

If Trudeau can actually stick to a $18.4B deficit, that would still have beaten Harper’s $20B deficit in 2015, or his average deficit in excess of $26B/annum for 2005-2015.

I personally don’t have much confidence though. $30-$40B in the hole it probably will be.

#163 45north on 02.22.16 at 12:27 pm

reality: Just because we have wealthy Canadians, doesn’t mean they will start buying houses.

right

The thing I don’t like about Canada, its very hard to get actual data, like if the house sold or was it taken off the MLS. If it did sell, you can’t find what it sold for.

The USA has all of this available. You can track a house all the way back to the 80’s.

right again! US data is far superior to Canada’s.

#164 Candy Halson on 02.22.16 at 12:30 pm

To Ace Goodheart

Coming soon an Ontario/Canada H.S.T of 17% with 2% point increase each, 13%+Canada 2%, Ontario 2%.

This will bring in another $20 Billion a year for them but like we have seen before with tax increases and added taxes, they never can get enough of financial pain for us for their satisfaction.

#165 S.Bby on 02.22.16 at 12:33 pm

#118 reality
a million isn’t very much money now and doesn’t earn that much money in the bank or in other safe passive income tools. Basically a million or even two in cash, well its not rich!
—————————————————
Really? A million dollars is still a lot of money for most people. Your fantasy is not most people’s reality.

#166 S.Bby on 02.22.16 at 12:44 pm

#126 kommykim

you certainly do have a sense of humour.

#167 cramar on 02.22.16 at 12:46 pm

Remember years ago when the Turks and Caicos wanted to become part of Canada and the Canadian Gov’t. would have none of it? Maybe about the time Garth Turner was in Parliament. Anyhow, TripAdvisor has rated Grace Bay as the Best Beach in the World!

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/17/travel/tripadvisor-best-beaches-world-feat/index.html

If only . . . .

#168 James on 02.22.16 at 12:52 pm

#147 Penny Henny on 02.22.16 at 9:18 am

#83 Harbour on 02.21.16 at 8:26 pm
I write my sister shared with me on Facebook…

This morning I think of all the pensioners who receive the pension of the old age security, for those who do not know yet we will have an increase of 0.57 per month starting from the end of January, we welcomed 569.95 And we will receive 570.52.
During that time the federal government spends billions for Syrian immigrants. I think that the government should have more respect for the elderly who are facing expenditure growing each year. A question, Mr. Prime Minister what would you do with 0.57 cents a month?.

///////////////////////////////////////

57 cents. Hmmm lets see. When I was a kid that would get you 171 Mojos

http://www.treasureislandsweets.co.uk/penny-chews/mojo-chews.html
……………………………………………………………………
Justine Trudeau is an idiot, that’s it an idiot. An thanks to the many idiots who elected him good luck. Billions for Syrian refugees when our own hard working Canadians retirees that paid taxes and contributed to the building of this great country here are going to suffer. Thanks dumb asses. Now the government has just announced that their budget deficit is a little off! Only by a factor of five. In my business that would get you fired. Don’t worry the Wynne government is still trying to cook up ways of taxing your backsides in a loving rainbow fashion. So to all you millennials out there that elected these idiots let us know how the sex while your liberal government is screwing you. Keeping it real, peace out.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/12/01/federal-shortfalls-on-track-to-be-billions-bigger-than-forecasts-watchdog_n_8688390.html

#169 taxesdebtgrumblegrumble on 02.22.16 at 12:55 pm

#161 Ace Goodheart on 02.22.16 at 11:31 am
“We are heading towards a situation where our government’s largest expense per year, after health care, will be interest”

Who cares? You’ll be done working or dead before the doomsday you’re predicting — every right wing mouth breathers go to case study; Greece.

Let millenials worry about the default. We would rather have some money floating around now.

You just sit back and yell at your TV, gramps; kids these days!

#170 Ronaldo on 02.22.16 at 12:57 pm

#157 D.I.A.B.V.Y.

”Haven’t lived with mommy and daddy for 20 years.

I guess my post hit a nerve… Getting a little worried about your retirement funds – or lack thereof?”

Guess that would make you 50 then. Kicked my two out at 19 right after college and gave them both an incentive to go out and become very successful business men, now in their mid 40’s. They thank me for it. Retired for 15 years now and still lots left in the vault.

Not all boomers screwed up.

#171 understood by few on 02.22.16 at 1:13 pm

#123 Ret
“crap cars, no money”

So it looked like a Kia dealership?

#124 reality
“its very hard to get actual data..”

BS. Yes it’s protected, but it’s simply a matter of asking a realtor for the info. Talk to any realtor and say “Hey.. I want listing info with pending.. here’s the criteria. I’m not serious about buying but I’m curious. And don’t mail me those stupid mailers every realtor orders!”

Any realtor should set you up in 2 seconds. If one won’t, another will. Costs them nothing and makes them your main contact for realty info. That way you can see when stuff has a price change, goes off market or is suddenly new. If you favorite something and it goes OM, it’ll still sit there, then you can fave the new listing (presumably by a different realty brokerage) and watch that.

Want historical? Just email the realtor. They should be happy to send a pdf with all previous listing history (though it’ll be missing private sales). I do that when I’m curious about a house. Never had a complaint from the realtor. If they do complain I’d just ask another realtor. It’s in their best interest to give you whatever you ask for whether you are serious about buying or not.

Yes, it sucks we don’t have open info like the US, but I don’t get the anti-realtor sentiment. All my dealings with realtors have been good. Wish I could say the same for car salesmen.

Right now I have access to listings in my own town as well as a smaller one we’re considering relocating to. Only issue I had was the small town realtor thinking our criteria was too broad (low end too low). Yeah, I wouldn’t buy at the low end, but I want to see the whole picture and it’s not like the number of listings are overwhelming.

#172 Hope & Change (Canada) on 02.22.16 at 1:39 pm

#145 Shawn on 02.22.16 at 9:06 am
Is All Money from government Welfare?

Residents of Alberta (call them Team Alberta) who whine that Albertan’s federal taxes far exceed federal spending in Alberta are implicitly saying that they are not getting their full share of federal government welfare and handouts from general revenue?

Geez Shawn, when someone takes money from you and then gives it back, that is not called welfare.

I guess Albertans contributing to the tune of 4,000 per person (16 Billion dollars) to Canada each year has hit a spot since you continue do denigrate it and pretend that it’s nothing.

And of course, we are just talking about taxes at the federal level not the countless jobs that Alberta has created for people all over Canada.

#173 Hot Albertan Money on 02.22.16 at 1:41 pm

Hell, yes. Betty should buy.

I think I just saw a pig fly past my office window

#174 Debt increasing among boomers, vanishing yield. Oh my! on 02.22.16 at 1:48 pm

Guess that would make you 50 then. Kicked my two out at 19 right after college and gave them both an incentive to go out and become very successful business men, now in their mid 40’s. They thank me for it. Retired for 15 years now and still lots left in the vault.

Not all boomers screwed up.

You are full of assumptions, and way off.

#175 NotTOnorVAN on 02.22.16 at 2:05 pm

Sooo…let’s say I ‘m a 33 year old in Winnipeg (FYI, I live in Winnipeg), have $100,000 saved up (some in accessible TFSA’s), $30,000 in RRSP’s, make $60,000/year and am interested in a house for about $300,000. I currently rent with 2 (sometimes very annoying and messy) roommates and pay about $625 total for my portion (including utilities – only $512 in action rent) of a very nice house. Last summer, prices stopped climbing, houses started to sell for under asking (an end to most bidding wars), but prices in general haven’t really gone down yet – and I keep hoping they will. Buy or keep renting?

#176 Kenchie on 02.22.16 at 2:12 pm

Truth…

http://monetaryrealism.com/theory-of-constraints-and-monetary-policy/

#177 Mac on 02.22.16 at 2:13 pm

Veggies jumped 18% year/year last month after a 13% surge in December….

So that’s why I’m constipated!

#178 Hope & Change (Canada) on 02.22.16 at 2:27 pm

#102 Bottoms_Up on 02.21.16 at 10:00 pm
#220 Hope & Change (Canada) on 02.21.16 at 9:34 am
—————————–
It is ignorant to discuss public (federal) service pensions without discussing the reality of contributions, investment and retiree payments. It’s not just for “waking up in the morning”.

Awesome description. And of course the private service employees need to take care of all of this themselves.

Therefore they cannot just hope to get to 55 and automatically start receiving a guaranteed income every month for the rest of their life.

Not to mention that DB pensions and employer contribution to the tune of 50%+ are extinct in the private sector.

#179 Billy Joe McAllister on 02.22.16 at 2:37 pm

A Huffington Post article gives three reasons why house prices will never fall in GTA or YVR. This short synopsis should allow you to skip it…

1. The masses will continue to arrive
2. There is no more room
3. Money will remain worth nothing

#180 Randy Randerson on 02.22.16 at 2:45 pm

Reminds me of an interesting convo with my mother. If she wins $1 million, she’ll go out and buy a house and live off the remaining winnings. I asked her how much for a house, $700k was the answer. Without much thoughts into fees and tax, she’ll live on $300k for the rest of her life.

#181 Noel on 02.22.16 at 2:46 pm

Decidedly different tone today Garth, is it because its a leap year?

#182 Entrepreneur on 02.22.16 at 3:15 pm

#110 Bottom_Up “It is a government handout funded by general revenues.”…and only if live a sheltered lifestyle. That revenue comes from all walks of live and with that walk life comes with up and downs that cannot be predicted. OAS are for some people who worked, contributed a high amount into CPP fund, but when work went sideways, found any job to keep going but not enough for CPP. So life is not always straight as an arrow.

BWTS, I believe the OAS has been changed to allow newcomers to Canada easier access to it which I disagree on. Or something similar.

#183 Bikers for President Trump on 02.22.16 at 3:33 pm

Is host Garth on board?

https://www.facebook.com/DonaldTrump/videos/10156674068880725/

#184 Bottoms_Up on 02.22.16 at 3:43 pm

#145 Shawn on 02.22.16 at 9:06 am
——————————-
No, it’s the us (recently unemployed Albertans) vs. THEM (Syrian refugees) position that is abhorrent.

We are all Canadians, and every single one of us descends from an immigrant. We have many government programs that benefit many people, including spending abroad, and for refugees. We are generous and proud of our generosity, and we are making a diiference. Why do some Albertans feel the need to turn their situation into a position of “let’s attack Syrian refugees”???

Should Tanzania get $180,000,000 per year from Canada? Should we be giving $5 billion a year in total foreign aid? Why pit a particular group of people against the plight of unemployeed Albertans?

http://cidpnsi.ca/canadas-foreign-aid-2012-2/

#185 understood by few on 02.22.16 at 4:01 pm

#167 cramar on 02.22.16 at 12:46 pm

Remember years ago when the Turks and Caicos wanted to become part of Canada and the Canadian Gov’t. would have none of it? Maybe about the time Garth Turner was in Parliament.

Remember when all the corruption in T&C came to light? It had been going on a much longer time and anyone with more that a light familiarity with T&C would know about it. Business as usual there, not something any sane politician would want to be involved with. It’s a mess politically.

There’s a lot more to a country than whether it has nice beaches. I don’t think Garth is the type to be swayed by nice beaches. Maybe by the Potcakes. They are really nice dogs (friend has one).

#186 TurnerNation on 02.22.16 at 4:06 pm

Toronto mayor asking for photo radar.

Remember elites want 100% of our money. More and more taxes and laws each year. What recession?

At the lowest level of the pyramid here our money flows upwards.

#187 Renter's Revenge! on 02.22.16 at 4:06 pm

@160 Shawn:

“Proof People Believe What They Want To…

What to do about it? I don’t know. Maybe just ignore contrary views as trying to get anyone to change their view is usually a waste of time.”

There are still people willing to learn from others and have their minds changed, especially if they think it will help them get ahead in life. They don’t say as much as the hard-headed ones because they’re too busy thinking about what they just learned. It’s probably why the “1%” got that way. Don’t give up.

#188 James on 02.22.16 at 4:28 pm

#184 Bottoms_Up on 02.22.16 at 3:43 pm

#145 Shawn on 02.22.16 at 9:06 am
——————————-
No, it’s the us (recently unemployed Albertans) vs. THEM (Syrian refugees) position that is abhorrent.

We are all Canadians, and every single one of us descends from an immigrant. We have many government programs that benefit many people, including spending abroad, and for refugees. We are generous and proud of our generosity, and we are making a diiference. Why do some Albertans feel the need to turn their situation into a position of “let’s attack Syrian refugees”???

Should Tanzania get $180,000,000 per year from Canada? Should we be giving $5 billion a year in total foreign aid? Why pit a particular group of people against the plight of underemployed Albertans?

http://cidpnsi.ca/canadas-foreign-aid-2012-2/
____________________________________________
What are we freaking crazy, oh I forgot were Liberals.
Lets see we are about to go 27 billion in the hole but we want to give away $5 billion to countries that,,,,,
A: Are destitute and corrupt.
B: Hate us and anything western.
C: Will probably use it to purchase weapons to kill us in years to come.
D: Would never contribute anything useful back to us or the rest of the world.
E: Have extremist views.
F: Have removed rights and freedoms that we hold dear.
G: Will allow Justin to get his selfie moment!
Yep makes sense to me? Oh Canada………………….

#189 Ronaldo on 02.22.16 at 4:28 pm

#174 Debt increasing among boomers, vanishing yield. Oh my! on 02.22.16 at 1:48 pm

”You are full of assumptions, and way off.

I reckon that would make two of us then.

#190 James on 02.22.16 at 4:29 pm

#186 TurnerNation on 02.22.16 at 4:06 pm

Toronto mayor asking for photo radar.

Remember elites want 100% of our money. More and more taxes and laws each year. What recession?

At the lowest level of the pyramid here our money flows upwards.
____________________________________________
Here we go. He has beaten Wynne to the punch.

#191 Ric on 02.22.16 at 4:31 pm

#168 James on 02.22.16 at 12:52 pm.

I agree, 100%.

#192 Axehead on 02.22.16 at 4:42 pm

#5, 14, others.
KIA sucks, and deserve the abuse.

Not only is quality, real quality, crappy – the kind that happens after the warranty ends when the new wears off and you really see what you got – but design and technology are far behind, no matter how much you shine them up with fancy grills or German inspired rims.

Garth, please please please keep bashing KIAs…and Hyundai’s.

#193 Peter on 02.22.16 at 4:44 pm

“Houses in Langley which is 50 km from Vancouver are already in 800K + range and some of those areas are zoned agricultural. Things are that crazy !”

Sunny Tsawwassen, about 34 km South of Vancouver , has houses that sell in the 1 million dollar range. The neighbour to my own mother, whose house sold for 800k last year, was flipped last month, at 1.3 million. This, of course, caused my mother’s own place to jump up 500k in terms of property taxation. OUCH!

#194 hope & ruin on 02.22.16 at 5:00 pm

About 6 months ago a realtor told me that there was no more room to build in mississauga and that house prices would stay high because of it.

But every time I drive down burnhamthorpe between trafalgar and winston churchill. I see quite a bit of land. The area around oakville/mississauga border.

Maybe it’s zoned for something else? I really don’t know. But apparently you can’t build on that land. ever? The one house keeps goats on it instead. Could somebody explain this to me? I’m sure land is very limited. But we’re hardly at tokyo level capacities.

I thought of this after the discussion. Or I would have just asked her. She never called back.

#195 SIGNS on 02.22.16 at 5:44 pm

NEW BUILDINGS NOT SELLING, RENTING INSTEAD

http://bosa4rent.com/

#196 Nemesis on 02.22.16 at 5:49 pm

#WhoKnew?,Or… #It’sNyanNyanNyanDay… #No,Really!

[SCMP] – Feline selfies, kitty-shaped snacks and moggy-themed costumes: cat-crazed Japan celebrates 30th annual Cat Day

…”Known as Nyan Nyan Nyan Day (the Japanese equivalent of “meow meow meow”), the Japanese celebrate Cat Day on February 22 each year.”…

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1915627/feline-selfies-kitty-shaped-snacks-and-moggy-themed-costumes-cat-crazed

#ChristyCat’s”PetTheDog”Moment…

[CBC] – Premier Christy Clark promises new protections for B.C. cats and dogs

…”The new regulations will require sick or injured animals receive prompt and adequate veterinary care, that kennels be cleaned on a daily basis, and that there be a minimum space provision for each animal.

The code will also include regulations on housing, ventilation, food and water, care and supervision, record keeping, behavioural needs and socialization, said Clark.”…

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/premier-christy-clark-promises-new-protections-for-b-c-cats-and-dogs-1.3458293

[Tyee/OpEd] – Forget natural gas, forests or mines — housing is BC’s big asset

…”What we do know is the average sale price of Vancouver residential real estate ballooned 31 per cent last year. Province-wide, property assessments now top $1.3 trillion, half of which is concentrated in the Lower Mainland.

Greater Vancouver real estate is now worth more than $636 billion, up $89 billion since 2014. That tiny area — less than one-third of one per cent of the province — accounted for almost 70 per cent of the increase in provincial real estate values last year.”…

http://www.thetyee.ca/Opinion/2016/02/22/Real-Estate-Public-Resource/

#197 understood by few on 02.22.16 at 5:53 pm

#173 Hot Albertan Money on 02.22.16 at 1:41 pm
Hell, yes. Betty should buy.

I think I just saw a pig fly past my office window

And yet another anti-house-purchase post. Jealous that she’s in a position to buy (while being balanced) and you aren’t?

Personally, I think the average market in Canada will cool a little more (maybe wait until next winter to buy), but it’s not like she’s going to lose her blouse if she buys today. Interest rates aren’t going to get any better, so in the long run she’ll probably end up ahead.

I wish I could buy a SFH for 400K here. Hence looking at relocating. Home equity is much too big a chuck of our net worth for comfort. A 400K home would solve that.

Renting would as well (theoretically).. but with some fur babies, a loin fruit, and rental vacancies in the 1% range, renting isn’t the best option.

#198 maximus on 02.22.16 at 6:09 pm

Sure you can get data from a real estate agent. Just like stocks, I don’t need an agent to buy. They give you info a few times, but just like a car dealership, if you test drive too many times. They’ll ask you too buy. The only info I’m really interested in, how long on the MLS, how many times on the MLS. Plus price adjustments. Its pretty easy to figure out.

In Tsawwassen there is a few agents who have the bulk of the listings. Several weeks ago, lots of decent houses under a million. A junky house, on an o.k. sized lot with a lousy view. It was around the English Bluff area. It listed at $1.7million. It sold around 3weeks ago. The listing agent raised prices on most of their listing, the second biggest listings agent did the same it snow balled. Other area’s also started raising in the lower mainland. I’m sure a Tsawwassen seller looked and around them. A tear down in Vancouver is $2million now, surely my Tsawwassen home is worth one or more. Its a small market, so one or two go up, the rest follow.

If you believe million dollar teardowns and townhomes in Tsawwassen is a sustainable growing investment market. I have some $1million dollar still in box like new collector quality cabbage patch kids from the 1980’s. All markets can go parabolic, the only guess here is when will it fall apart?

You know why most toys from the 1970’s and 1980’s aren’t collectible today? The internet shows the market is full of them. Plus they make reproductions of the most popular ones.

#199 Ronaldo on 02.22.16 at 6:38 pm

Here is the answer to Vancouver’s land shortage. Tear down the West End towers and replace with these ones.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/dbc02b8ff10a4425aaaf3e9f1f5ede74/slender-towers-rise-dizzying-heights-nyc-skyline

#200 Ace Goodheart on 02.22.16 at 6:54 pm

To: #164 Candy Halson:

Ontario’s in far worse shape than the rest of Canada (with the exception maybe of the recently formed socialist republik of Alberta).

What worries me most about Ontario is that our govt is figuring out ways of spending more, while cutting down their revenue sources. They are going to have to make up the difference somewhere. I mean, I’m all for wine and beer being sold in the local corner grocers, but what the Govt here forgets is they get a large portion of their yearly take from their little cash machine the “LCBO”. And their electrical utilities (which they also want to sell) make money too. Once they have gotten rid of all their money making monopolies, they are going to have to tax the bejeebers out of us to make up the difference.

#201 hope & ruin on 02.22.16 at 7:03 pm

#200 Ace Goodheart on 02.22.16 at 6:54 pm
To: #164 Candy Halson:

Ontario’s in far worse shape than the rest of Canada (with the exception maybe of the recently formed socialist republik of Alberta).

What worries me most about Ontario is that our govt is figuring out ways of spending more, while cutting down their revenue sources.
_______________________________________

You’re worried about ontario? The man who helped create that mess is now in ottawa.

#202 understood by few on 02.22.16 at 7:11 pm

They give you info a few times, but just like a car dealership, if you test drive too many times.

——-

BS. For the past 6 years I’ve been bugging the same 2 realtors for info and now I’ve added another in a different city. None have insisted I so much as go to an open house. Them being nice and doing trivially easy tasks is good business. Keeps them a prospect should I choose to sell or buy and keeps them in mind should anyone ask for a referral.

If any realtor gives you a hard time about just looking there are 10 others that would be grateful for the attention. I get thanked for asking them for info, ‘hey, thanks for thing of me, glad to help. Any time!”

#203 Ronaldo on 02.22.16 at 8:15 pm

The Canadian Press, at 19:45 on February 22, 2016, EST.

VANCOUVER – Seven people have been named to an advisory panel created to respond to allegations of real estate contract flipping by some Metro Vancouver property agents.

Lawyer Howard Kushner, Central 1 Credit Union president Don Wright and British Columbia Securities Commission head Audrey Ho are among those who will sit on the panel.

The practice involves agents exploiting an assignment clause that allows them to sell a home multiple times before a deal closes, driving up the final price and stacking up their commissions.

The Real Estate Council of British Columbia announced earlier this month it would create an advisory group to investigate the allegations raised by media reports and Opposition politicians.

Superintendent of Real Estate Carolyn Rogers was appointed chairwoman of the group and tasked with naming its members.

She says the panel will examine the ways the council identifies and responds to licensee conduct that could pose a risk to consumers or that fails to meet the standards expected by the public.

The advisory group members named Monday are:

Howard Kushner, lawyer, Kushner Law Group.

Don Wright, president and CEO of Central 1 Credit Union.

Audrey Ho, commissioner of the B.C. Securities Commission.

Bruce Woolley, lawyer with Stikeman Elliott.

Carol Geurts, associate broker, Century 21 Veitch Realty, Creston, B.C.

Tony Gioventu, executive director of the Condominium Home Owners’ Association of B.C.

Ron Usher, general counsel, Society of Notaries Public of British Columbia