The ugly head

COUCH modified

When a single reporter managed to find one credit counselling guy who knew of one dude who’s maybe walking away from his mortgage, it was enough. “Jingle mail rears its ugly head in Alberta again: Federal government worried about Albertans making strategic defaults on their mortgages,” read the CBC headline.

The gist of the story is simple: cowboy country has non-recourse mortgages. So if you don’t have CMHC insurance and bought with at least 20% equity, you can drive to the airport, park your dually Silverado with the keys inside, get on a flight for St. Johns and never make another truck or mortgage payment again. In theory.

BTW, a punted oil fields engineer I sat with yesterday, whose annual contract was pulled by her energy company nine days before its confirmed renewal, tells me Calgary airport officials collected over 150 abandoned vehicles there last month alone. “Just as many in Edmonton, too,” she said. “And in Fort Mac you can now walk for blocks and see nobody. In 34 years, I’ve never experienced anything like this.”

The afternoon after her termination letter arrived she had to write suppliers telling them the $1.2 billion project she was spearheading was kaput. “Every letter,” she said, “was a heartache.”

Well, the point is there’s enough misery in the oil patch right now without media vultures making stuff up. There’s no wave of jingle mail taking place. It may come. But we’re not there yet. Having said that, nobody should believe the stats coming out of the Calgary Real Estate Board, either. The realtors claim sales have declined slightly with median prices down less than 2%. Meanwhile on the street agents will tell you the million-dollar market has collapsed, and it takes a 20% haircut just to get a buyer to start talking.

As mentioned here previously, ‘average’ sale prices come after multiple price reductions, relistings, expiries and new listings, which also automatically reset the days-on-market odometer. This practice makes it impossible to get an accurate picture of real estate reality which is probably the point. If sellers read the published numbers and think a buyer will show up in the next 42 days (the official time it takes to sell a home in Cowtown), then the jingle mail can wait.

Well, what next? This ad from Alberta condo builder The Carlisle Group give you a clue…

1LAYOFF

The storm is not blowing over. Actually it’s just gathering, if the price of oil is any good indication. Crude’s back to twenty-eight bucks, off 4% Tuesday and probably heading lower. The floor, said Goldman Sachs this week, is somewhere south of $20. That’s the same prediction made months ago, when it looked ridiculous. No so much now.

The logic is there. With Iran and Iraq pumping their derrieres off, with refracking being the new fracking and US production continuing, and with Canadian oil sands output increasing, plus every tanker, bunker and tank farm brimming with surplus crude, the only way a supply/demand balance will be struck is when the taps turn off. And that’ll require oil so cheap that producers fail.

“Once you breach storage capacity, prices have to spike below cash costs because you have to shut in production almost immediately,” the Goldman commodities guy says. “I wouldn’t be surprised if this market goes into the teens.” Concurrently the International Energy Agency reports the overall oil surplus will worsen with 1.75 million more barrels being pumped every day than the world needs. As for prices: “In these conditions the short term risk to the downside has increased.”

Well, all this commodity calamity is a death rattle for Calgary, and nowhere will that be more evident than with real estate – both residential and commercial (where there’s already blood on the floor). Those who decided to hang on for six or eight or ten months and wait for oil to recover made the wrong choice. Crude has lost 75% of its value, and by the summer that could be an even scarier number. The oil patch giants have responded by slashing capital expenditure budgets, punting tens of thousands of contractors and retreating into survival mode. Eventually oil will recover. But when you have no income and lots of outgo, eventually is the same as never.

This will hurt far beyond Calgary. Westjet, Ontario pipe manufacturers, recreational property in BC, the defeated engineer sitting in my office or families in Newfoundland. There’s a reason the TSX lost another 250 points today and Canadian government bond yields have declined by almost half in a single year.

If you still feel like buying a Calgary condo, definitely check out the insurance. And save some money for a shrink.

 

283 comments ↓

#1 Tuxedo on 02.09.16 at 6:42 pm

This spring will be interesting. I believe a lot of people here in YEG are hanging onto their homes to prepare for the “spring market”. I forecast For Sale signs as far as the eye can see along with healthy price cuts by summer.

And yes Garth, you are 100% correct. BC and Ontario are not immune. Just 1 year ago we were seeing out of province plates everywhere here. Can’t tell me there are good-paying jobs for all these people when they head home. Don’t forget, a lot of these oil / construction jobs here paid really good money – well over the national average.

#2 Frank on 02.09.16 at 6:43 pm

Meanwhile in the 604 the storm is gathering about housing prices. Investigations are being promised, fingers are pointed. I’ve never seen it so jumpy.

#3 unbalanced on 02.09.16 at 6:43 pm

At least it was sunny in Winnipeg today.

#4 mark on 02.09.16 at 6:44 pm

first!

#5 Freedom First on 02.09.16 at 6:44 pm

Dear Fellow Albertans,

I have noticed that many of you are considering walking away from your mortgages because you can’t afford the house anymore. Whether you take this course of action or not, I want to lend you my support. I encourage you to continue coming to this blog and reading my posts. I believe they can help you deal with the difficult financial decisions you are wrestling with. I may know very little about women, parenting, children, family and other petty things, but I do know a lot about the wealth I’ve accumulated and how it makes me feel. I believe the stories I share of my happiness can in some small, yet significant way, make your misery a little more bearable. I’m a really great guy and it’s in your best interest to know that, to reflect on that, and to know that…even though you can’t be me, you can enjoy my happiness through the stories of personal success I share. I always put myself first.

Your friend,
Freedom First

#6 JSS on 02.09.16 at 6:46 pm

She’s beautiful.

But back to doom and gloom…looks like Husky Energy is punting around 500 people from head office.

http://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/husky-energy-chops-positions-in-latest-round-of-cost-cutting

#7 Smoking Man on 02.09.16 at 6:49 pm

It’s ok garth

This generation will save us all.

http://www.therebel.media/must_watch_triumph_the_insult_dog_invades_university_safe_spaces_takes_a_bite_out_of_politically_correct_snowflakes

Wondering if a few gropers attacked the girls? who in the room would come to there defence.

No one looks like a hockey player to me.

But if I have to chose , going with the Dog.

#8 The real Kip on 02.09.16 at 6:50 pm

There’s a lot more pain coming, hang on to your hat!

#9 Mr. White on 02.09.16 at 6:50 pm

I guess I might be first.

#10 Bobs ur uncle on 02.09.16 at 6:51 pm

Re: BC recreation property. I noticed that you can get a ski in/ski out 2-bed condo in Fernie listed at 250K. 2 or 3 years ago, I remember seeing *1/4* shares, off-hill, being offered for 199K.

Am curious how low it will go in 2016.

Sad and stressful for those who lost their jobs.

#11 not 1st on 02.09.16 at 6:53 pm

Thats a scary story Garth.

It will be even scarier in 9 months when you are writing about the US recession.

#12 JRH on 02.09.16 at 6:54 pm

Turn out the lights, the parties over !!!

#13 Greg on 02.09.16 at 6:54 pm

Not looking good.

https://biv.com/article/2016/2/imperial-metals-shut-down-huckleberry-mine/

#14 james on 02.09.16 at 6:55 pm

If it were possible to feel less than zero sympathy, I would.

People in Alberta have only themselves to blame. Despite living in a boom bust province, they refuse to learn from past history. In good times, they spend like drunken sailors and save nothing for bad times. That goes for their government as well.

A pending downturn in oil was being discussed in industry magazines back in 2012. Exponential increases in funding for oil and gas projects means increased supply.

I can forgive a waiter or convenience store clerk for not knowing about this, but for oil industry workers and government officials to miss out on the warnings…

Headed back to Toronto this week for 3 days. Every time I visit I have to suppress laughter, as it reminds me of the former soviet union. A few rich people, a lot of people just getting by, and a parasitical public service. The only fancy buildings are for banks or government. I’m sure it will be even more amusing this time around, given the drop in oil and the dollar.

#15 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.09.16 at 6:55 pm

The Calgary board’s frankenumber house price “index” shouldn’t be taken seriously by anyone. The reality of the situation in Calgary is that house prices have fallen a lot more than what that “index” shows.

Similarly, house prices in Victoria fell more than what the Victoria board’s frankenumber “index” (part of the same national index as Calgary) showed between 2010 and at least as late as some time in 2014.

Canadians deserve to know the truth about the performance of their city’s housing market. Americans have the Case Shiller index which is considered reliable.

#16 pathcontrolmonk on 02.09.16 at 6:56 pm

Albertans can always learn Mandarin and sell condos to gullible buyers from Chengdu.

#17 JRH on 02.09.16 at 6:56 pm

Willie says party’s

#18 Mr. White on 02.09.16 at 6:57 pm

That said, it is pretty amazing that many in Canada think that having a giant industry like oil and gas suffer is an unalloyed good for all Canadians.

Do they not have retirement plans? Do they imagine that their government pension plan that will pay them giant piles of money as they retire are not invested in the market? Do they imagine that no matter what happens in the oil industry they will still have those pension funds available forever?

Canadians need to learn to think through things all the way to the conclusion. It is nice here in Edmonton to see gasoline in the 50 cents per litre range. The downside to that is the horrible personal suffering that is happening all over the oil patch is soul sucking.

Forget about real estate, look harder at the real impact to all Canadians that those who imagine they can live with out petroleum products. These same people think there is an endless flow of fresh fruit and veg arriving in Burlington from California without trucks to get it there.

#19 Luc on 02.09.16 at 6:57 pm

How a US company plans to become the Uber of mortgages…
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/10/upshot/the-super-bowl-ad-that-set-off-economic-alarm-bells.html

#20 I am the Babbler on 02.09.16 at 6:57 pm

Don’t buy Calgary RE yet. There is plenty of downside remaining. Instead, buy in Toronto. Plenty of upside still there.

#21 Ray Skunk on 02.09.16 at 6:59 pm

Of course the other reason Albertans (or any of us who draw a paycheque/have savings in this country) should be shitting it right now is that this man dictates government policy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWXRK4ffEH4
(you only need to watch the first ten seconds)

Yes – that’s right – the Prime Minister takes his orders from someone who wants to see the end of carbon-based fuels (and I assume replaced with $40bn-on-your-hydro-bill subsidized windmills, Ontario-style) in this country.

Good luck Canada.

#22 Love this Blog on 02.09.16 at 7:00 pm

Well, at last we are shoveling money out the door towards other nations because ours is doing so well. Sunny Ways.

#23 Rexx Rock on 02.09.16 at 7:02 pm

Albertan’s need to pack up and go to Vancouver,Toronto and Victoria.Lots of well paying jobs and a better lifestyle.I know its hard but you can always go back when oil gets back to $100 a barrel.

#24 Mark on 02.09.16 at 7:06 pm

The whole concept of ‘jingle mail’ has been significant exaggerated. Unlike in the 1980s, borrowers are not getting off so easy this time. True non-recourse mortgages in Alberta are scarce. Of course, the banks aren’t likely to recover anything in a deficiency judgement from a bankrupt, but calling such defaults “strategic” rather than “out of desperation” is a pretty significant mischaracterization of the situation. There are real consequences, ie: personal bankruptcy, for the jingle mailers. Nobody is doing it to be ‘strategic’.

“Meanwhile on the street agents will tell you the million-dollar market has collapsed, and it takes a 20% haircut just to get a buyer to start talking.”

Very true. And that’s 20% beneath 2013 prices, not 20% beneath the unadjusted-for-sales-mix prices of 2014/2015.

#25 Squidly77 on 02.09.16 at 7:08 pm

Jingle mail started a couple of months before Christmas up in Fort Mac, haven’t heard much about it happening in Calgary though. I can feel the stress in the air from fellow workers, it’s really quite sad as some of these people worked long and hard to achieve what they had.

#26 Pooched on 02.09.16 at 7:08 pm

T2 Away…. Military order to evict base camps for who!

The Canadian military has been ordered by Justin Trudeau’s Liberals to draft plans to house more than 6,000 Muslim migrants on a long-term basis at military bases, according to documents obtained exclusively by The Rebel (

Included in the Department of National Defence budgets are hundreds of thousands of dollars set aside for “religious support,” including the purchase of Muslim Korans, prayer mats and foot-washing towels.

The plans also call for the construction of mosques or “worship centres,” using taxpayers dollars.

The planning documents, in English and French, were released in response to a Rebel “Access to Information” request about religious expenditures by the Department of National Defence.

http://www.therebel.media/breaking_liberals_to_build_refugee_camps_on_canadian_military_bases_taxpayers_will_fund_mosques_korans?utm_campaign=refugeesonbase&utm_medium=email&utm_source=therebel

#27 Panhead on 02.09.16 at 7:09 pm

With Iran and Iraq pumping their derrieres off, with refracking being the new fracking and US production continuing, and with Canadian oil sands output increasing, plus every tanker, bunker and tank farm brimming with surplus crude …

and I’ll add every farm tank too. My rancher bud’s up north are all stocking up on cheap fuel. For a while they were getting it cheaper than I could buy it in the United States. And this is in the bush … delivered 4oo miles return. Not so much now as I bought gas in Point Roberts last week for 44.9 /liter USD. Probably cheaper this week … 103.9/liter CDN here in 604land where they can transit tax you to death … funny what a single line of parallel can cost you …

#28 Freedom First on 02.09.16 at 7:10 pm

#5 Freedom First

Not me, but not bad.

However, #5 Freedom First, you have missed my intent of helping others when I Post. After someone has screwed themselves over, it is too late. That being said, my messages here over the years, if followed, would indeed have helped my fellow Albertans avoid the devastating impact of their foolish decisions they are now/or about to suffer from. I take no joy from the severe uptrend in male suicides in Alberta, not the rapidly increasing/or about to/ divorce rates that happens when men lose their jobs and are kicked to the curb by their wives and by society. I am a Boomer, and sadly, I have seen all of this before in previous severe downturns. I always look after myself. I am a man. I take fully responsibility for myself, and I love it. And I owe nobody anything. Freedom First.

#29 S.Bby on 02.09.16 at 7:13 pm

Kelowna second worst place in Canada to find a job.

so what’s this guy been smoking?

“Real estate sales from Albertans, who make up 15 per cent of buyers, have remained steady according to Basran. Other indicators, like airport traffic, have been decent too.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/kelowna-second-worst-place-to-find-a-job-in-canada-says-report-1.3440945?cmp=rss

#30 MF on 02.09.16 at 7:13 pm

#201 Keith in Calgary on 02.09.16 at 6:01 pm

Shhh Noel’s crystal ball indicates endless gains for housing from here on out.

Funny you mention the stock market. It’s getting hit right now partially because it went up for so long. Reversion to the mean.

MF

#31 ALBERTASTROPHE on 02.09.16 at 7:16 pm

The personal stories of strife and family breakdown I am hearing are getting worse and more frequent. This is the underside of the bigger macro trends here.

So much of this would be much more manageable if we had better governments the last forty years.

Conservative politicians have been absolutely idiotic, completely moronic and incompetent managers of our economy. We should have been as well prepared as Norway to handle this inevitable downturn. Instead, we are broke and incapable of doing anything to help Alberta pull through.

What is it in the DNA of conservatives that makes them so mentally defective and stupid when it comes to economic matters?

#32 kommykim on 02.09.16 at 7:16 pm

RE:

This ad from Alberta condo builder The Carlisle Group give you a clue…

Even more telling is when you click the “Learn more” button and are presented with an offer of spam emails and phone calls from their sales dept instead of details on the offer.
But if you click the “Special offers” button above the skinny angel, you’ll get some details:
“Carlisle will pay your mortgage and condo fees for up to 6 months,
to a maximum of $8000 should you lose your job from the time of
contract signing to December 31, 2016.”

#33 What the world needs now… on 02.09.16 at 7:20 pm

#11 “Thats a scary story Garth.
It will be even scarier in 9 months when you are writing about the US recession.”

David Rosenberg, chief economist at money-management firm Gluskin Sheff & Associates, went way out on a limb today:

“I put the odds of a U.S. recession in the next year as close to zero as anything could be close to zero.”

also Goldman Sachs, ‘no chance’, though they state Canada doesn’t look so hot, with a high probability of recession…

#34 The Great Gazoo on 02.09.16 at 7:20 pm

There are alternative views to what Goldman Sachs has to say on the price of oil. Here is a link to Andrew Hall’s latest newsletter to investors in his fund. Worth a read if you want to better understand some of the key issues impacting the price of oil.

Andy Hall’s Astenbeck Capital 2015 Annual Letter – Oil Is Going Up

http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/02/astenbeck-capital-letter/?all=1

#35 Standard Deviation on 02.09.16 at 7:20 pm

The Alberta unemployment rate most certainly does not include the self employed. I am guessing that could be as high as 30% of the work force? Their unemployment is literally 0.
The saga continues……

#36 ShawnG in TO on 02.09.16 at 7:22 pm

What do Albertans think of ralph bucks now?

#37 Cici on 02.09.16 at 7:25 pm

#2 Frank

Good! Something fishy’s been going on down there for way too long now, and it ain’t all to do with foreign investors.

#38 Freedom First on 02.09.16 at 7:26 pm

#5 Freedom First

Not me. Bad try.
I find your comment to be very cruel and unfeeling towards the hardships Albertans are facing. And under my name. What an a$$hole.
………………………………………..

#5 Freedom First. You missed the point of my messages here over the years. I want to help people before they get into trouble from making bad decisions.

I take no joy in the large and growing numbers in unemployment in the oil and gas industry, the skyrocketing male suicide rates, the divorces happening around me of men being abandoned by their wives and society due to job loss, which is sure to increase. I am a Boomer, and I have seen this before in the severe economic downturns I have witnessed.

#39 Marco Polo on 02.09.16 at 7:26 pm

Things are dire here in Alberta. Crime is up, defaults will follow. What annoys me is how ‘uppity’ big city folk are on this blog. Care or don’t care, we hear of how important cities are in politics. City mayors attend international climate change conventions, I don’t understand that one. Your “world class” cities produce nothing of value, other than ponzi scheme condo developments.

You have yourself to blame, building trendy condos in what were productive Toronto factories. You have nothing to offer the world. No compelling reason for an outside investor to buy a Toronto business rather than a Buffalo or Mexico City one.

This house of cards is ready to flop, and has no feed of Albertan money to flow through the economy. Good luck on your green plans, sounds like everything South Korea or India could do better for less.

#40 Doug t on 02.09.16 at 7:27 pm

Cycles are a normal part of the flow of the world economies – we are at the end of a commodities supercycle which really exploded in early 90’s due to China (but started in the 60’s). What comes now is a world for the most part heading to stagnation – people unemployed and civil unrest on the rise. History repeats itself – be prepared and get your house in order (or condo lol)

#41 Nagraj on 02.09.16 at 7:32 pm

The Edmonton Indoors Shopping Plaza is very big and has many oyster bars.
If you want fresh prairie oysters you have to get them at the ranch when they’re being harvested.
But when they’re being harvested at an abbatoir, which is mostly the case, the abbatoirists stick a stick into the oyster, flash-freeze it and vacuum-seal it in plastic.
These thusly packaged frozen oysters on a stick is what’s sent to the oyster bars in the Edmonton Indoor Shopping Plaza.

Whereas in a normal shopping plaza on a fine summer’s day you will see children with ice cream cones or popsicles . . .

I only bring this up because as the price of oil continuously fails to confirm the seemingly logical expectations of Albertans and of their friends on Bay Street (which street is “in a funk” acc to GT) and as the Edmonton Indoors Shopping Plaza will undoubtedly revert to pasture land (which is what God meant it to be), do, dear reader, shed a tear for the oyster-on-a-stick industry.

Monkey brains are best when eaten warm and raw right out of the monkey’s skull (check Wikipedia if you don’t believe me). Those few Albertans who believe in climate change are hoping for the return of the monkeys to Alberta. [The monkeys left when the vines froze, you can’t very well swing from canopy to canopy by means of a frozen vine.] And these Albertans are hoping to make up for the loss of oyster bars in the disassembled Edmonton Indoors Shopping Plaza – with monkey skull kiosks. The little “kit” comes with a hammer with which to bang a hole in the simian’s cranium, and a plastic spoon.

So even if oil does go the way of Goldman Sachs, and even if Bay Street moves on from “funk” to, perhaps, temper tantrum, all is not necessarily lost, eh?

#42 old gringo on 02.09.16 at 7:33 pm

So, if a person leaves his f-350 big balls special and walks away from his mortgage and cc card debt, the question is how long will the “wolves ” or credit hogs hound him or her?
Is there any break after so many years?
Real sad to see.

#43 Sebee on 02.09.16 at 7:36 pm

Is it just me or is that “angel” with a prostitute’s stare trying to seduce her victim into something they will regret shortly after the act…of signature?

#44 observer on 02.09.16 at 7:36 pm

Well where are those well paying jobs in Vancouver.

The more under employed Albertian mean more supply and on the same demand in jobs

So prepare for less pay people especially in the tech sector, where some of the best were contracted out in Alberta and will now be competing for your job

#45 AACI Home-Dog on 02.09.16 at 7:37 pm

Totally off topic here, but with BC condos & reserves funds, I understand that the strata councils are bound to invest the funds that are being collected in GIC’s, etc, which will likely not even keep up to inflation. One more reason to only rent such properties…not purchase.

#46 Ontario's Left Coast on 02.09.16 at 7:38 pm

Will the real Freedom First please shut up?

#47 Freddie Salton on 02.09.16 at 7:40 pm

If you think about it, low oil is great for the oil companies, because it makes economies more dependent on it.

So there is less need for alternative energy when oil is so cheap.

If oil is expensive, then alternative energies are more urgent.

Would love to hear your opinions on this folks.

#48 Vundo on 02.09.16 at 7:40 pm

#5: please cut it out. You don’t have to like the real Freedom First, but get your own handle and speak for yourself.

Today’s blog is a bit depressing. I hang on to the notion that the beating my portfolio has taken since its inception last spring means that what I am buying is “on sale” and therefore a good deal for the future, and that patience will be rewarded (my horizon being 30-40 years), but it will be too late for me if it takes 40-50 years or more to recover the losses I might be seeing for years to come. Not that I would be better off dumping everything into RE or pieces of metal, I know better than that, but I am left with the prospect that all roads, including clinging on to cash, lead to ongoing loss no matter what I do. Depressing.

#49 Caught In The Grip on 02.09.16 at 7:42 pm

Do you think the S&P 500 will decline more than 20%?

#50 PVSinsight on 02.09.16 at 7:42 pm

#28 Freedom First

“I am a man. I take fully responsibility for myself, and I love it. And I owe nobody anything. Freedom First.”

Who secured your freedom which allows you to write your personal thoughts in the first place?

#51 Godth on 02.09.16 at 7:46 pm

Like something much larger isn’t going on…
http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/96701/return-crisis

#52 Warren - the lagging indicator on 02.09.16 at 7:47 pm

Big Dipper on 02.08.16 at 8:21 pm “Capitalism only works of it’s thoroughly regulated and taxed. The outrageous house market in Vancouver is a good example of an uncontrolled market running amok. The end result will ruin innocent bystanders, and the leftover mess will take years to fix – usually with tax payers support. Supporters of uncontrolled markets will whine about too much government intervention. They always do. The process of cause and effect is lost on them.”

__++__

I tend to agree that capitalism needs regulation, tempered greed if you will. Also, I agree that CMHC is largely unregulated government slush fund and should not exist in the first place. You have been reading this blog for how long now and the housing market is your example of an under regulated, under taxed, overly free market? Could it not be that government mandated taxpayer support through CMHC is a big part of the problem coupled with the packaging of, and DBRS assigning a AAA rating to, Mortgage Backed Securities insured under the National Housing Act. If Bank issued residential mortgages were given, and MBS’s were priced, commensurate with actual risk, would we still have a housing bubble? Wouldn’t the housing market be more controlled if the banks were more exposed to free market risk by less government intervention? Why do socialist types insist on subsidizing giant overly profitable Canadian banks at the expense of innocent bystanders. Should the banks not have skin in the game? Then again, maybe all my tears have blinded me from the true cause.

#53 Brucecounty Girl in Ft. Mac on 02.09.16 at 7:54 pm

Well, the point is there’s enough misery in the oil patch right now without media vultures making stuff up. There’s no wave of jingle mail taking place. It may come. But we’re not there yet.

Garth, unfortunately there is a lot of truth to what you said. Someone once told me long ago in their view the media always seems to have a way of preying on a person’s fear’s whenever a chance presents itself. I suppose all one can do is take one day at a time, stay positive, and hope for the best.

Again, thanks for taking the time to answer my call today. I was hoping to talk further but you did seem rather busy and I didn’t want to hold you up for too long. Perhaps another time.

#54 Prairieboy43 on 02.09.16 at 7:54 pm

As I have commented Earlier. Prices are readjusting downward. Edmonton, area adding approx. 60 listings/daily. More pain to come. Government spending hard. No Adjustments yet.

PB43

#55 Hannity Helmsley on 02.09.16 at 7:56 pm

“http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/flashing-warning-signs-canadian-markets-bracing-for-dramatic-bank-of-canada-action-and-a-recession”

The Trudeau Liberals have ushered in another great recession for Canadians in the name of social engineering, yay.

The social engineers would rather the facts not be disseminated too readily in the media ( as happened in Cologne when the coordinated mass rapes were organized by Muslim groups) but facts are facts. The economy and the nation is dying under the Trudeau Liberals.

Trudy might not have said it as eloquently as Obama when the latter took office, but the Liberals plan to bring change to Canada, and starvation has always been an effective tool.

#56 TS on 02.09.16 at 7:57 pm

Even the Saudis are getting killed at this oil price.

They’re going to cut production. It’s just going to take a few months.

This is like 2008 US buying time for oil Garth. You should be telling your readers to bet huge on oil.

#57 Prairieboy43 on 02.09.16 at 7:57 pm

@#36 Shawn. Re: Ralph Bucks. Still have mine, and growing. Thank You Ralph. Rest in Peace.

#58 Scott on 02.09.16 at 7:58 pm

The next phase will begin shortly- the rolling thunder of bankruptcies cascading through every sector related to the oil and gas industry.

#59 For those about to flop... on 02.09.16 at 8:01 pm

But when you have no income and lots of outgo, eventually is the same as never.-Garth

//////////////////////////////////////

This is a similar saying to one I like to use…
I you have no income,there is only one outcome.

M41BC

#60 Kuato Lives on 02.09.16 at 8:03 pm

No, oil doesn’t have to recover. All of MIT, LockHeed and now the Chinese http://www.techienews.co.uk/9742391/china-just-became-the-world-leader-in-nuclear-fusion-research/

have made great strides in fusion research recently and all predict to have working fusion reactors ready to hit the market in 5-10 years. They’ve been saying that for 60 years now, but eventually they’ll be right. Once oil is removed as an input for transportation energy, that’s the end of 90 million barrels a day production. All the tires, plastics, pharmaceuticals and ashphault in the world doesn’t hold a candle to transportation usage.

No, oil doesn’t have to recover.

#61 Leo Trollstoy on 02.09.16 at 8:07 pm

#18 Mr. White on 02.09.16 at 6:57 pm

if your gonna rely heavily on government dole for your retirement, well, then that’s the risk your accepting. i wouldn’t.

#62 But why? on 02.09.16 at 8:08 pm

In spite of all the economic headwinds, why are housing prices around the country hardly coming down, if at all? What will it take for that to happen? I get the feeling that it will not happen no matter how seriously bad things will get; a long as interest and mortage rates are kept at an all-time low, or go even lower, prices will not start melting. Where oh where is the start of the long melt you have been predicting for so long now for Canada, oh mightly Garth??

#63 Leo Trollstoy on 02.09.16 at 8:10 pm

#31 ALBERTASTROPHE on 02.09.16 at 7:16 pm

the cpc passed the predictably horrible economic baton to the 2 parties dumb enuff to take it lol enjoy the show

#64 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.09.16 at 8:10 pm

# 23 Rexx Rock

Once gain, in typical house pumper style, you make ridiculous claims without providing any proof at all.

There aren’t a lot of high paying jobs available in Victoria as you claim. Hardly the case at all. There may be more construction this year compared to recent slow years, but that is only a temporary situation.

A temporary uptick in construction activity isn’t a long term fix for a weak economy.

Victoria is part of Canada. Canada’s economy is in serious trouble as Garth has made clear numerous times.

Canada was the only G7 nation to be in recession in 2015.

This chart should remind you what happened with house prices in Victoria the last time construction activity inevitably slowed down.

. . . . . .Single Family Home Prices. . . . . . .
Percent Above/Below May 2010 Price Level
. . . . . x = Victoria, * = Saskatoon. . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 9%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . . .
+ 8%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 7%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 6%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 4%. . . . . . . .*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 3%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 2%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 1%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .0%. . .x*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 1%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 2%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .x. . . .
– 3%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 4%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . x. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
—————————————————————-
. . . . . May. . . May. . . . . . . November. .
. . . . .2010. . .2012. . . . . . . . .2015. . . .

(sources: price index – Victoria’s R/E board (website), Saskatoon’s R/E board)

#65 Retired Boomer WI on 02.09.16 at 8:12 pm

#75 WHAT THE WIRLD NEEDS NOW… from 2/8

Perhaps you misunderstood. Perhaps you’re just stupid.
Matters not. It is MY money, I control it. I paid taxes on it, and will invest where I deem it has the ‘greatest opportunity’ to grow further.

It does NOT represent “ALL” my money though a percent.

Yesterdays moves DID create a gross gain of 9 grand.
Today, I gave back a grand.

Still, by my accounting I’m better off than I was Monday morning. (How about you, bunky?)

I am done moving crap around for now… Times change,
people change, opportunities come and fade. There will another time for action.

RB

#66 Katrina Kashan on 02.09.16 at 8:13 pm

Bond yields are crashing and many were predicting that the U.S. 10 year would end 2015 at 2.75%.

The last low was 1.10% for for the 10 year and 2.25% for the 30 year.

Why don’t they just get it over with and all go to 0% tomorrow. This is where the world is going to a big fat 0.

#67 the Jaguar on 02.09.16 at 8:14 pm

What many people fail to understand is that the word “Albertans” represents a group of people from all over the country. Most ‘Albertans’ are from other provinces. So if you want to knock the collective mentality remember there is a good chance some of those ‘Albertans’ grew up next to you in Ontario, or BC, or Newfoundland, etc. And look up some statistics on transfer payments and you will find Alberta has been a significant contributor to other provinces for a very, very long time. Should big oil, Albertans, and the rest of Canada have ‘seen it coming’? Maybe. Allison Redford booked time on television in January 2012 to warn of the ‘bitumen bubble’ and its affects on provincial finances. The total impact of most events like this is usually lost on the general population as Garth pointed out in yesterday’s blog when he discussed the dangers of property sales via assignments when it occurred years ago in Ontario. What I would ask people (like #14 James) is this: What’s your plan to rescue the nation’s finances? Where is the next manufacturing or other boom coming from? Let’s hear it. Where is the real industry and job creation in this country if you are content to gloat over Alberta circling the drain and thousands of people losing their jobs? Can’t wait to hear your solutions. I know one thing for sure. Albertans will dig out. They always do. Because they have a serious work ethic and desire for success that is largely unknown in other parts of the country where people care not to dwell too long or hard on who or how they are being subsidized. Pipelines can be shut down or other initiatives squashed. It’s the smart, hardworking ones who show grit who will rise to the top again.
And they will have long memories and will be short on sympathy for people who left them fall so hard with such a lack of compassion.

#68 family beagle on 02.09.16 at 8:16 pm

Question… If the average price for a house in Vancouver proper is 1 mil plus, did the housing market just inflate itself out of CMHC jurisdiction? Are the banks now on the hook for mortgages going forward? They must be relieved, the CMHC folks, as everything is 20% down, I guess. Thanks for any insight.

(I rent 604, own 250)

#69 cramar on 02.09.16 at 8:18 pm

I’m surprised that some media hack has not floated a story that the reason the TSX is tanking is that “smart money” is coming out of the equity market to where there is the greatest return. That would be RE in TO and Van, of course! So investment and speculative money is driving those RE markets through the roof! HAM is so… yesterday!

Remember the old adage that “money is liquid and flows to where the greatest return is.” The masses will believe it and eat it up!

Hummm… I’m on to something.

#70 Brian Ripley on 02.09.16 at 8:19 pm

I updated my Employment chart:
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html#Rate

Alberta & Calgary employment rates are at new lows post dotcom bust and the rates for Toronto and Vancouver are at interim resistance in an even longer downtrend than Calgary’s.

Indeed it was just after the dotcom bust that Alberta earnings broke out above the national average when the mania shifted into commodities.

Deleveraging is on. Perhaps we will see employment rates in Calgary and Toronto close the gap this year… that gap is only 4% at the moment.

#71 Mark on 02.09.16 at 8:20 pm

“why are housing prices around the country hardly coming down, if at all?”

Housing prices have been falling in Canada for the past almost 3 years on identical houses in the wake of Budget 2013’s tightening of CMHC subprime mortgage insurance availability (ie: the $600B cap being made hard, in particular, and tightened downpayment requirements). What you’re seeing, in these allegedly ‘higher prices’, is that the sales mix has shifted drastically to the much higher end / newer construction units. Thus giving the statistical allusion of rising prices in the transactional mix, when all that is really being observed is a mere shift in the nature of the transactional mix.

The same thing occurred in the US. The peak of the excesses in finance and prices was in roughly 2005 or so. But there were still a very limited selection of areas in the US for which quoted average transactional prices still were rising as late as early 2008. In hindsight, prices weren’t rising at all, it was merely that the sales mix had shifted particularly in cities for which there was a significant stratification between low and high-end for which more vigorous activity in the high end could cover up stagnation and falling prices in the low end.

#72 Trading Naked on 02.09.16 at 8:29 pm

To anybody who’s ever said, “Garth, you’re wrong. If I’d gone against your advice and bought a house in Vancouver five years ago, I’d make a killing by now”:

Stop it. Just stop it.

Even when my Boomer mother starts to muse about how, “oh, if only you’d bought an apartment 10 years ago…you had enough money even back then…” she stops herself and says, “but your priority at the time was to get a job, any job. Oh well.”

To which I add, “in addition, we’re not housey-flippy people. All you’ve ever taught me was to get a job. I had no notion of ‘playing the real estate market’ the way other families did.”

Because “I should have bought a house N years ago” is right up there with, “I should have played red on roulette” and “I should have bought and held Apple at $10.” It’s all hindsight.

I like to believe that we are each blessed in different ways. So yes, I “missed” the real estate run-up. Yes, my life was “harder” than my parents intended it to be – when they immigrated, it never occurred to them that their future child would get laid off not once, but twice!

But I am blessed. My job is not to find the one company that will sit me at a desk and pay me for life. I managed to screw that up. Happily for my parents, my sibling lucked into that script, even though that company regularly makes headlines for reducing headcount. My job is to look around at the opportunities available, and match them with my talents. I grew into an era of $9.99 stock trades and fast computers. I get to buy, sell, short, cover, screw up, and Mr. Market will still pay my rent and buy me shoes. It’s not like the 80’s where I would be shouting in a trading pit while the big guy in front of me elbows me in the face.

For this I am very blessed, and if anybody out there still wants to moan about how they “missed out” on the real estate craze, sit back and think about all the other ways in which you’ve profited from the era you’re born into.

#73 The ugly head - Realties.ca on 02.09.16 at 8:34 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/02/09/the-ugly-head/ […]

#74 Freeman on 02.09.16 at 8:38 pm

Don’t worry about people in Alberta, they are actually better off now than they were a few years ago. You see, a few years ago they had no time off, they had to work their fingers to the bone.
BUT NOW they have life easy, they ave a ton of free time to do anything they want to do and as a result are more happy now than ever.
Like a new Alberta bumper sticker just read:

“JUST LOST MY JOB: LIFE IS WONDERFUL !”
– – – – – –

Now for anyone who is wondering when the U.S. stock market is going to stop falling, this is the chart to watch:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TFCVX&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95696037966

It is a 5-year chart of ‘TFCVX’ ; Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund.
(A portfolio of high yield stressed and distressed securities with investments throughout the capital structure (high yield bonds, bank loans, convertible securities and/or preferreds) ).

As long as the economy in the U.S. is going down the toilet then junk bond funds like this will keep falling. When this fund begins to level off and rise, then that will be the time to jump back into the U.S. stock markets.

Best to wait until TFCVX reaches a point where the fund price is higher than the price 3 months earlier. When that happens then the financial system in the U.S. has finally stabilized.

Similar high yield funds to watch also are these:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95696037966

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNK&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95696037966

Happy hunting !

#75 Hicksville Alberta on 02.09.16 at 8:39 pm

kind of funny there seems to be some on here that gloat over what’s happening in the oil patch, yet most are probably investing in the stock markets and such thinking they are on the road to riches while watching their portfolios starting to tank with what’s happening in the global commodity and finance bust.
Maybe there is some cause and co-relation between the two. For example you maybe should look at the long term stock charts on some of the mid level oilfield service companies ( amongst so many other companies in other sectors as well ) . Try:
Precision Drilling ……… PD.TO
Trican Well …………….. TCW.TO
Calfrac …………………. CFW.TO

These are publicly traded and former good companies with good dividends that had and held high values that may well yet end up in the glue factory having already lost up to 97 or more percent of their prices from their highs. And a lot of the shares of these companies are owned and have been held as investments individually and in mutual and pension funds all across Canada and perhaps elsewhere.
So just from an investment and capital point of view alone a whole lot more than Albertans have already had some form of asshanding or other even if they don’t know or yet realize it.
And it ain’t over till it’s over.

#76 common sense on 02.09.16 at 8:40 pm

Well Oil got to a low of $10 in the late 1990’s, $20 does not seem unreasonable…yet with so many more producers, lack of demand, demographics, how fast would a bounce back be and to what price? $50 ish? 2-4 years? More?

I truly feel for those hurting right now and about to.

As for home ownership anywhere in Canada, I’d wait a year and pick up something at a far reasonable value as compared to today…most anywhere.

As to the person impersonating Freedom, It was funny initially but I think we all got the joke at least 4-6 times and it’s time to move on…

#77 Trading Naked on 02.09.16 at 8:47 pm

#38 Freedom First on 02.09.16 at 7:26 pm

You take no joy in other people’s misery? OK, I’ll give you that. But you sure do take joy in patting yourself on the back.

I happened upon a book about how to teach social skills to children with autism. It talks about “mood matching”. For example, when the people around you are sad, but you’re happy, you come across as a jerk even when you mean no harm. Children with high IQ’s also have this problem where on more than one occasion they’ll shout out the answer to a question that the rest of the class is struggling with.

#78 not 1st on 02.09.16 at 8:47 pm

I want to personally thank freedom first for single handedly supporting the brothel industry all on his own.

#79 Nemesis on 02.09.16 at 8:52 pm

“I am left with the prospect that all roads, including clinging on to cash, lead to ongoing loss no matter what I do. Depressing.” – Vundo

#TryPugs…

[BloomBerg] – The Dog-Art Auction You’ve Always Dreamed Of

…”In 1998, Doyle, the Upper East Side auction house best known for its genteel sales of silver and antique furniture, held an auction devoted solely to Man’s Best Friend. It was a success, and for more than a decade the Dogs in Art sale became a yearly tradition…

…None of the lots carry estimates higher than $30,000, with most well under $5,000. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the breed depicted in each painting can affect its price.

“We’ve seen that pugs tend to do quite well,” Gold said. “German shepherds are a little more challenging to sell.”…

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-05/doyle-dogs-in-art-auction-paintings-2016

#80 tundra pete on 02.09.16 at 8:56 pm

#31 Albertastrophe

This is what happens when cousins breed with each other.

#81 Godth on 02.09.16 at 8:57 pm

The Zoochotic Report
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jhmv8Ya5jZE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISo6J_PvOuo

#82 Smoking Man on 02.09.16 at 8:59 pm

Trump is destroying.

Hillary pretty sad a Commie is kicking her but.

#83 GenXer on 02.09.16 at 9:09 pm

7 Smoking Man on 02.09.16 at 6:49 pm

I always suspected you were a Rebel. Their comment section is filled with hate and fear. Best to stay away from those crazies.

#84 For those about to flop... on 02.09.16 at 9:19 pm

Hey Washed Up ….Happy 60th birthday .
Does this mean you are now….A Washed Up Washed Up Lawyer?

M41BC

#85 Priarie Oysters for All on 02.09.16 at 9:19 pm

#41 Nagraj on 02.09.16 at 7:32 pm

The Edmonton Indoors Shopping Plaza is very big and has many oyster bars.
If you want fresh prairie oysters you have to get them at the ranch when they’re being harvested.
But when they’re being harvested at an abbatoir, which is mostly the case, the abbatoirists stick a stick into the oyster, flash-freeze it and vacuum-seal it in plastic.
These thusly packaged frozen oysters on a stick is what’s sent to the oyster bars in the Edmonton Indoor Shopping Plaza.

Whereas in a normal shopping plaza on a fine summer’s day you will see children with ice cream cones or popsicles . . .

I only bring this up because as the price of oil continuously fails to confirm the seemingly logical expectations of Albertans and of their friends on Bay Street (which street is “in a funk” acc to GT) and as the Edmonton Indoors Shopping Plaza will undoubtedly revert to pasture land (which is what God meant it to be), do, dear reader, shed a tear for the oyster-on-a-stick industry.

Monkey brains are best when eaten warm and raw right out of the monkey’s skull (check Wikipedia if you don’t believe me). Those few Albertans who believe in climate change are hoping for the return of the monkeys to Alberta. [The monkeys left when the vines froze, you can’t very well swing from canopy to canopy by means of a frozen vine.] And these Albertans are hoping to make up for the loss of oyster bars in the disassembled Edmonton Indoors Shopping Plaza – with monkey skull kiosks. The little “kit” comes with a hammer with which to bang a hole in the simian’s cranium, and a plastic spoon.

So even if oil does go the way of Goldman Sachs, and even if Bay Street moves on from “funk” to, perhaps, temper tantrum, all is not necessarily lost, eh?

The usual drivel from the slimy hypocrite who lives a life free of oil..

Metrosexual monkey brains.. about sums it up…yum yum

#86 Herf on 02.09.16 at 9:21 pm

Meanwhile, back in YVR, the fraud continues:

http://www.canada.com/business/single+vancouver+gets+compensation+from+real+estate+council+after/11708338/story.html

Same uncouth twit as was reported a week or two ago. How much longer before he and his minions become fish food?

#87 Prairie Oysters for All on 02.09.16 at 9:22 pm

#78 not 1st on 02.09.16 at 8:47 pm

I want to personally thank freedom first for single handedly supporting the brothel industry all on his own.

I thought he had severe tendinitis.

#88 Priarie Oysters for All on 02.09.16 at 9:24 pm

#80 tundra pete on 02.09.16 at 8:56 pm

#31 Albertastrophe

This is what happens when cousins breed with each other.

Those would be all the cousins from the ROC who came out to party.

#89 Jason on 02.09.16 at 9:27 pm

$20 oil is precisely what we need in Calgary, as that is the only way supply is going to get shut-in. Even then, there is such an excess of oil in storage that price recovery could take a while. I’m optimistic about 2017.

#90 common sense on 02.09.16 at 9:28 pm

Excellent article on oil prices and USD…

Smokey, this gives a nice explanation why the USD has been dropping..
https://contrarianopinion.wordpress.com/economy-update/

#91 Herf on 02.09.16 at 9:31 pm

“I wouldn’t be surprised if this market goes into the teens.”

So, with a present discount of $15 – $18 for Western Canada Select (oil), when the world price (WTI?) for oil drops to the teens, WCS will be worth . . . nothing? Sounds like Recochem might make a killing on mothballs!

#92 Smoking Man on 02.09.16 at 9:35 pm

After tonight results in NH I’m calling Bloomberg running for sure. The Guys a tool who thinks the herd don’t know he’s establishment.

At leased it will split the commie vote.

Imagine raw free enterprise returning to the good old us of a.

Down with pc and Cultural Marxism

Go Trump. MR President.

#93 Herf on 02.09.16 at 9:39 pm

#31 ALBERTASTROPHE

“So much of this would be much more manageable if we had better governments the last forty years.

Conservative politicians have been absolutely idiotic, completely moronic and incompetent managers of our economy.”

Not just Conservative, the Lieberals deserve to wear some of the mismanagement too. And the electorate is on the hook for its voter apathy and for being idiots, morons and incompetent w.r.t. perpetually enabling or allowing the idiot, moronic and incompetent politicians to keep getting elected or re-elected.

#94 Herf on 02.09.16 at 9:43 pm

“BTW, a punted oil fields engineer I sat with yesterday, whose annual contract was pulled by her energy company nine days before its confirmed renewal, tells me Calgary airport officials collected over 150 abandoned vehicles there last month alone.”

Did those vehicles still have their “nutz” attached or had they been removed, perhaps by someone wanting a trophy to hang on the wall or for a momento of the boom times?

#95 Godth on 02.09.16 at 9:50 pm

#92 Smoking Man on 02.09.16 at 9:35 pm

I hope Trump wins too. The USA needs a Nero to oversee the fall. It will be the most entertaining presidency ever as we watch the narcissistic trust fund baby rule the free world. Awesome! Jesus is coming!

#96 CalgaryCarGuy on 02.09.16 at 9:52 pm

Re/ #67 Jaguar
———————————————————————
+1 My thoughts exactly. Thanks for a great post.

#97 DON on 02.09.16 at 9:53 pm

#28 Freedom First on 02.09.16 at 7:10 pm

#5 Freedom First

Not me, but not bad.

However, #5 Freedom First, you have missed my intent of helping others when I Post. After someone has screwed themselves over, it is too late. That being said, my messages here over the years, if followed, would indeed have helped my fellow Albertans avoid the devastating impact of their foolish decisions they are now/or about to suffer from. I take no joy from the severe uptrend in male suicides in Alberta, not the rapidly increasing/or about to/ divorce rates that happens when men lose their jobs and are kicked to the curb by their wives and by society. I am a Boomer, and sadly, I have seen all of this before in previous severe downturns. I always look after myself. I am a man. I take fully responsibility for myself, and I love it. And I owe nobody anything. Freedom First.
***********************************

Almost had me…but the tone was slightly off, more mocking than heartfelt concern.

Nice try! lol

#98 WUL on 02.09.16 at 9:56 pm

Garth:

You captured our predicament nicely today. Glass half full? Phaneuf remains in Ontario where we sent him.

Housing starts in Fort Mac?

Jan 2015 – 114

Jan 2016 – 5

Source – Fort McMurray Today newspaper.

#99 Josh in Calgary on 02.09.16 at 9:57 pm

#14 james on 02.09.16 at 6:55 pm,
You’re a sociopath plain and simple. You watch people in trouble and it brings you joy.

Sure some people may have spent more than they should have in good times. But, many are guilty only of having recently moved here and not yet become established. Many have not been here long enough to have seen past booms and busts or become well versed in the cycles of the oil industry.

Shame on you.

As for the government, there’s a reason why the PC got kicked out of power and it was not out of any great love for the NDP. They have not been conservative for awhile now. They’ve been corrupt and self serving. Redford and her “sky palace” was the last straw, although many would have voted the PC out sooner had there been anything else to choose from.

#100 Bram on 02.09.16 at 9:58 pm

#71 Mark on 02.09.16 at 8:20 pm
Housing prices have been falling in Canada for the past almost 3 years on identical houses

Bull$***, and you’ve been called many times on that bull$***.
Why do you keep repeating it?

Here are the official numbers:
+20% over 36 months.

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.aspx

Based on RESALE values of the same property being bought and sold multiple times.

Is it so hard to read?

The Teranet HPI figure has NOTHING to do with ‘sales mix’.

#101 GenXer on 02.09.16 at 10:02 pm

#67 The Jaguar

Albertans will dig out. They always do. Because they have a serious work ethic and desire for success that is largely unknown in other parts of the country where people care not to dwell too long or hard on who or how they are being subsidized. Pipelines can be shut down or other initiatives squashed. It’s the smart, hardworking ones who show grit who will rise to the top again.
And they will have long memories and will be short on sympathy for people who left them fall so hard with such a lack of compassion.

You had me until here. All those things are Canadian traits not just Albertans. Nobody helped out Ontario when manufacturing started the race to the bottom. Yet we are still here. Come down off your high horse. Not the first province to deal with loss of industry

#102 Smoking Man on 02.09.16 at 10:02 pm

#83 GenXer on 02.09.16 at 9:09 pm
7 Smoking Man on 02.09.16 at 6:49 pm

I always suspected you were a Rebel. Their comment section is filled with hate and fear. Best to stay away from those crazies.
….

I’m just an entrepreneur who wants a level playing field.
I like Ezera , don’t like his neoconservative Isreal is faultless shtick but the man understands freedom of speech.

I think he values it more than his local cultural programming.

Hense the bromance.

#103 Marius on 02.09.16 at 10:02 pm

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/01/07/2016-oil-limits-and-the-end-of-the-debt-supercycle/#more-40491

#104 WUL on 02.09.16 at 10:03 pm

Hey FLOP:

Thx for the birthday wishes. Beats being disbarred. Oh, and those Ft. Mac housing start numbers YOY (114 – 5), Makes me think of Flames/Leafs tonight.

#105 Bobs ur uncle on 02.09.16 at 10:03 pm

#72 Trading Naked on 02.09.16 at 8:29 pm

For this I am very blessed, and if anybody out there still wants to moan about how they “missed out” on the real estate craze, sit back and think about all the other ways in which you’ve profited from the era you’re born into.

***

*slow claps*

Solid.

#106 Carmine Calam on 02.09.16 at 10:03 pm

Too funny. The global investment community reacts negatively to Canada announcing a plunge into massive debt and a future of deficit spending the likes have never been seen and the Liberals blame Alberta?

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/flashing-warning-signs-canadian-markets-bracing-for-dramatic-bank-of-canada-action-and-a-recession

The BOC telegraphs that any foreign investor will be burned when the bank continues to crush the loon and the BOC blame Alberta?

That a few jobs cleaning up toilets and vomit after American and Chinese tourists have left our tittie bars soused on cheap beer is the Liberal plan for Canada?

The Liberal announcements to the country and the world so far have been confused splatter-speak that hasn’t fooled anyone, not even their own cheerleaders. We are diving into a well of pain that is a self inflicted morass.

Why? Thats what you need to ask yourself if you voted for ‘hope and change’. None of what the new government has done to date makes any sense. I am telling everyone I can to stop spending, stop buying, stop participating in every government scheme. We need to starve this beast and it’s union supporters.

#107 45north on 02.09.16 at 10:07 pm

family beagle: If the average price for a house in Vancouver proper is 1 mil plus, did the housing market just inflate itself out of CMHC jurisdiction?

I had the same thought. CMHC and the big banks may be getting out of the way. Very Quietly.

#108 CalgaryCarGuy on 02.09.16 at 10:08 pm

Re/#78 not 1st
I want to personally thank freedom first for single handedly supporting the brothel industry all on his own.
———————————————————————
I thought “single-handedly” and “brothels” were mutually exclusive terms.

#109 common sense on 02.09.16 at 10:09 pm

Garth…Do you still think a March FED rate hike is on the table?

#110 DON on 02.09.16 at 10:10 pm

#15 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.09.16 at 6:55 pm

The Calgary board’s frankenumber house price “index” shouldn’t be taken seriously by anyone. The reality of the situation in Calgary is that house prices have fallen a lot more than what that “index” shows.

Similarly, house prices in Victoria fell more than what the Victoria board’s frankenumber “index” (part of the same national index as Calgary) showed between 2010 and at least as late as some time in 2014.

Canadians deserve to know the truth about the performance of their city’s housing market. Americans have the Case Shiller index which is considered reliable.
********************

Your passion to detail and justice is appreciated – perhaps you might want to start cc’ing local political incumbents/opposition.

Let them know the public is thinking, you just have to introduce the idea or send in multiple emails from others – perhaps hook up with the don’t have a million group and set the wave in motion as the politicians enter a BC election year with a nasty debt load, lack of jobs and and broken (gigantic) election promises.

Stir!

#111 Smoking Man on 02.09.16 at 10:13 pm

#90 common sense on 02.09.16 at 9:28 pm
Excellent article on oil prices and USD…

Smokey, this gives a nice explanation why the USD has been dropping..
https://contrarianopinion.wordpress.com/economy-update/
….

Thanks for that , but I’m dyslexic . I see patterns when they change I give no fk. I step aside and try to understand the next pattern .

When I see it I bet. I care not what causes it. That’s what MBA bull sitters are for.

I’m into making loot. Not pats on the back from my master.

#112 Millennial Realist on 02.09.16 at 10:19 pm

To any of the Boomer 1%ers who frequent this blog:

If you want to know, and better understand, why the world you have profited so much from is about to be replaced, turn on CNN and watch Bernie Sanders’ speech tonight on replay.

Boomers, this is a political tsunami of historic proportions. Record turnout. And the idea of trickle-down (total crap pontificated by idiots, and it always has been) is about to get knocked into the corner. Wall Street speculators will be paying their dues. Same will apply in Canada, quickly, and Justin will have little choice but to make it so. And he is already on the right side of things.

Same fate awaits for any of those complete idiots who deny climate change.

With great respect for their contributions in the past, the Boomer political hegemony is over. Your sense of entitled voting control is over. And it took a pre-Boomer, Bernie, to make that obvious. Funny, huh? Boomers just got schooled, by their older brother.

Trump is still a vacuous douchebag, currently ahead, only in a party and a movement full of schooled losers. He will lose to whoever the Democrats choose.

Boomers, and 1%ers, change is heading toward you at full speed.

Get on board and be part of it. You will be welcomed!

Deny it, and you’ll be crushed to smithereens by it. You will be vilified, then forgotten.

Seriously re-evaluate your investment portfolios, folks.

Same-old, same-old investing in the status quo will leave you broke, very soon.

Even Garth’s balanced portfolio, while good in principle, will need to contain very different kinds of equities and investments in the future to prosper.

Huge change is coming. We, the majority, are in charge now.

Watch and learn.

So cute. Hey, that’s me in 1969. The times they are a-changing. Again. — Garth

#113 Smoking Man on 02.09.16 at 10:21 pm

#109 common sense on 02.09.16 at 10:09 pm
Garth…Do you still think a March FED rate hike is on the table?

Why would put the god of dogs and dedicated leader of our nightly entertainment on the spot like that.

We all know the answer.

#114 NTH on 02.09.16 at 10:24 pm

#25 Squidly77 on 02.09.16 at 7:08 pm

Indeed, I’ve also been hearing about a number of cases of jingle mail in ft Mac for awhile now. I wasn’t sure if it was just rumours….

Not Tonight Honey

#115 Herb on 02.09.16 at 10:28 pm

Smoking Man, re your #161 at 11:06 am,

sorry I didn’t get back earlier –

On climate change and denial, I’m not a scientist, but most scientists say that there is climate change, and that it’s man-made. Climate change I’ve seen, and that what we’re doing to nature affects nature makes sense too. The denial arguments defeat themselves by the ad hominem attacks they use, as well as the old cui bono question. There is a lot of money at stake on the O&G side, with less money beckoning on the other. One also might consider a sort of “Pascalian gamble” – if it’s real and we don’t do something, the results would be worse than possibly wasting whatever efforts we’ve undertaken to avoid them.

Yes, I have skin in the game, but I followed Garth’s advice some years ago and hired a financial adviser, so don’t much know or care what I’m invested in in detail. Did I make money? Not as much as I would have liked to, but it’s been reasonable, except for last year, when my FA made more from my portfolio than I did, but hopefully that was a one-of.

You’re right, of course, I’m an old bastard, but still a bit short of dementia. The way you’re going, you might get there before me. I’ve seen what a steady diet of booze does to brains.

#116 For those about to flop... on 02.09.16 at 10:39 pm

Hey Bram,he won’t listen to anyone.
Mark has been wrong on Housing,Gold CAD/USD and a bunch of other things as I have been too but this putz refuses to acknowledge his mistakes.
He doesn’t need to buy gold as he gets awarded the the gold medal at each Olympics in weightlifting in the clean and jerk section.

M41BC

#117 Smoking Man on 02.09.16 at 10:42 pm

#95 Godth on 02.09.16 at 9:50 pm
#92 Smoking Man on 02.09.16 at 9:35 pm

I hope Trump wins too. The USA needs a Nero to oversee the fall. It will be the most entertaining presidency ever as we watch the narcissistic trust fund baby rule the free world. Awesome! Jesus is coming!
….

No Jesus , mankind is made up of snake oil salesmen who oun MSM. The prize your mind and your labour.

Trump resonates with me. Thinking the bugger wants everyone to have a shot at prosperity.

The liberals want to steel prosperity.

#118 Jason on 02.09.16 at 10:43 pm

#14 James:

It isn’t the same people making the same mistakes. It’s a fresh new batch of virgins learning the dangers of leverage and living beyond their means.

Cycles exist because human behaviour is constant but the people aren’t.

#119 paul a on 02.09.16 at 10:47 pm

here is a taught: based on supply and demand and looking forward for a decade (10) years the data would seem to indicate 15$ oil for the next few years by summer with a possible max support level of 35$ 10 years out. barring a major event coming to pass that supports a higher increase

as to the “wheel of real estate” Canadian version remember the old saying “duck and cover? hears a updated reiteration “sell and rent” follow the latter you will do well follow the latter you are dust in the wind

#120 Mark on 02.09.16 at 10:48 pm

“The Teranet HPI figure has NOTHING to do with ‘sales mix’.”

Au contraire. The Teranet numbers, are at best, a lagging indicator on account of the methodology of Teranet. By the time Teranet finally acknowledges something happening in the market, it could very well have been years in the past as what you are looking at, in the Teranet numbers, is numbers that have been through an averaging/low-pass filter with significant time lag.

Teranet is an interesting methodology, but is highly flawed for the fact that its methodology induces such a significant lag into its output.

The other problem with Teranet is that a good chunk of the property base simply doesn’t transact all that often, and that tends to be relatively unimproved properties. So the natural tendency is to exaggerate upwards price movements which cannot be accurately generalized over the entire universe of properties.

#121 Herb on 02.09.16 at 10:50 pm

# 106 Carmine Calam,

let me guess, you’re a Conservative.

#122 Herethere on 02.09.16 at 10:52 pm

Re #80. “This is what happens when cousins breed with each other.”
Perhaps is another manifestation, that the Zika virus, really have been producing pinheads since immemorial times. Making possible to have believers in all kind of bizarre things. Eg Like books written by mysoginists who create a supreme being (God) as they are. No women prophets. Believing that Swiss neutrality, was accepted by uncle Adolph, because he was afraid of their navy. Or they were chaffing his privates, more than his lederhosen. And not because at the time, it was a giant money washing machine, needed by all of the one percenters of the world. Or believing in the classic, never worked, economic theory of the trickle down of wealth. And RE always goes up. Etc, etc.

#123 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 02.09.16 at 10:53 pm

““Once you breach storage capacity, prices have to spike below cash costs because you have to shut in production almost immediately,” the Goldman commodities guy says. “I wouldn’t be surprised if this market goes into the teens.”

Lucky it is Goldman’s call, so far they have been stopped out of 5 of their big 6 bets for 2016.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/goldman-sachs-abandons-five-of-six-top-trade-calls-for-2016/article28666669/

#124 common sense on 02.09.16 at 10:54 pm

#115 Flopper

I don’t know about “clean” re : Mark but whenever I even see his name, it’s like an on line ad..out of the corner of my eye I know it’s there but it’s just passed on by…

#125 Ontario taxpayer on 02.09.16 at 10:55 pm

@genxer
Nobody helped out Ontario when manufacturing started the race to the bottom.

$9.5 billion bailout of GM who then closed their Ontario plant as soon as they could?

#126 Mark on 02.09.16 at 10:55 pm

“WCS will be worth . . . nothing?”

There are a few refineries, particularly in Edmonton and Minnesota that are basically captive to WCS feed. So prices will not fall to nothing. The WTI to WCS spread will likely continue to fall/collapse as everything gets compressed pricing-wise, and may even suffer a slight (but probably not sustainable) reversal as the WCS-producing universe (ie: oilsands) will shut-in before the shale wells will suffer the same fate.

WCS producers are sitting on long-term assets for which they probably can issue debt or equity if need be, albeit at relatively dilutive terms. The shale producers who can’t make money are toast as there are no equity or debt opportunities available at this point for assets with such rapid depletion curves.

#127 President Trump on 02.09.16 at 10:59 pm

USA USA USA. . . . … I got them goose stepping pretty good__ Build a WALL and I will solve all your problems

#128 common sense on 02.09.16 at 11:00 pm

#113 SMOKING MAN

Just had to ask the question…not trying to be a smart ass. March is a long ways away..Anything can happen.

I think no matter what Old Yeller says tomm it’s going to be like the BOJ..zero credibility, a short boost and then gravity kicks in lower again….

#129 Prairie Oysters for All on 02.09.16 at 11:06 pm

DELETED

#130 For those about to flop... on 02.09.16 at 11:10 pm

#124 common sense on 02.09.16 at 10:54 pm
#115 Flopper

I don’t know about “clean” re : Mark but whenever I even see his name, it’s like an on line ad..out of the corner of my eye I know it’s there but it’s just passed on by…

////////////////////////
I gave Mark the clean and jerk title because he doesn’t curse people as much as some of us do.
So in essence he is a polite jerk.

M41BC

#131 DON on 02.09.16 at 11:10 pm

From cbc bc online news

“Shadow flipping’ can be avoided with trustworthy realtor, lawyer says”

“Assignment clauses can be avoided with purchase agreement.”

******************
trustworthy realtor?? say an equal opportunity lawyer – lol

#132 MF on 02.09.16 at 11:18 pm

Trump 2016.

MF

#133 Reality Check on 02.09.16 at 11:22 pm

#112 Millennial Realist

Wake up princess, I know you’ve been sheltered by your parent’s successes and the virtues they bestowed on your precious little self. My parents were boomers, I can tell you that my upbringing was much more privileged than their’s was. Their hard work and successes have given me all the comforts afforded only to the wealthy in their childhood. So, are they doing OK today, sure. But they started with minimal beginnings, limited creature comforts and menial jobs, sometimes two, just so that we could have some creature comforts. Over many decades they worked hard and moved up one step at a time.
Millennials on the other hand expect to have it all right now, it’s their right! After all, they boomers have always had it, right? Wrong. Suck it up cupcake and go out and make something of yourself, you have opportunities my parents couldn’t even dream of. Gather up your participation awards, throw them in the garbage and take responsibility for your own success. It’s not a given, it takes work.

#134 conan on 02.09.16 at 11:35 pm

Japan laying another egg ….. down 3 percent so far…… hmmm soon there will be fear….. going to be one hell of a buying opportunity. Is this soon or down the road?

#135 Capt. Obvious on 02.09.16 at 11:39 pm

#112 Millennial Realist
Same-old, same-old investing in the status quo will leave you broke, very soon.

Ah youth. I’m not even very old, but I know there are proper ways to invest and there are bad ways to invest, and they have very little to do with the political climate. Short of overthrow of the government by coup and shut down of trading, you can bet what worked since the formation of markets will work again.

#136 A Canadian Abroad on 02.09.16 at 11:45 pm

Another death nail for Calgary:

Calgary commercial real estate vacancy rate nearing 20 per cent.

http://edmontonjournal.com/business/commercial-real-estate/new-calgary-downtown-office-buildings-to-add-nearly-4-million-square-feet

#137 BG on 02.09.16 at 11:46 pm

Some poster mentioned Ethereum a few days or weeks ago. Thank you for that.

Long story short, it’s “like” a cryptocurrency but it is actually more than that.
Let’s just say it is a “crypto fuel”, because it proposes a new model of applications that run on Ether – the name of that crypto fuel.

After doing some research, I must say I really like what they are trying to do. Basically decentralizing web applications, by having them run on everybody’s PC. And to have access to more horse power (resource on “everybody’s PC”), you need Ether.
That’s how it is different from say Bitcoin, which has no other purpose than being a currency.

When the other poster mentioned the Ethereum project the first time here, 1 Ether was around 2 USD. Now it’s 4 and getting momentum.

Some like stock picking with a portion of their portfolio,
I decided that my own little guilty pleasure would be investing in something I believe in – Ethereum.

#138 MF on 02.09.16 at 11:48 pm

#112 Millennial Realist on 02.09.16 at 10:19 pm

You know any American Millennials? I do, and a lot of them are tired of Obama’s talking. He talks and does nothing. That is how he is portrayed.

Americans now want the opposite. Someone who gets things done without talking as much. Politics is like a pendulum. The US tried the Trudeau “hope” bit, nothing was accomplished, and now they want something different.

MF

#139 Sugarlips on 02.09.16 at 11:51 pm

Without wanting to get too tin foil hat, is there a rule of thumb of how many months net income a family should have in liquid to help ensure job loss survival based on prior recession experience?

Appreciate it varies depending on outgoings but let’s assume conservative folk. Thanks in advance!

#140 Observer on 02.09.16 at 11:52 pm

Can I “shadow purchase” a big screen TV please?

#141 Alberta Blue Blood on 02.09.16 at 11:52 pm

Hey, #112 – Millennial Realist:

*YAWN*

I never take anything from anyone who watches CNN seriously, but I digress.

Did you steal this soapbox from Stalin? Or was it Lenin? (They are both so boring, I never bothered remembering which is which.)

The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money. – The Iron Lady

#142 ron on 02.09.16 at 11:53 pm

That Goldman guy called oil going to $200 when it was $150 in 2007, $150 was the peak. He also said to buy oil when it was $80 in Oct. 2014, it tanked. In the past year look at his analysis. He had Saudi production flat, they were up 1.3 million in production, he had US production going up, it was down. His wrongs canceled out and ended up being right. Nobody looks at the details. Nobody. And the EIA which everyone looks to for all their data has proven to be very wrong everytime. Did they even see that production was way over demand in 2014?

Look at Andy Halls analysis he released today. It’s a shocker. Market is close to being balanced, and surplus is nowhere near what people claim. EIA data is wrong (As it’s always been in the past) And a large surplus is needed considering that we no longer have spare capacity (AKA Saudi which has decided to pump at max capacity) You can listen to Andy Hall, which is AKA “The Oil God”. Or you can listen to Goldman which has his previous track record for all to see (If they chose to look, and traders front run the trades), or listen to the most successful oil investor in recent times, and question EIA’s data, which has proven to be wrong consistently in the past.

#143 Marcus on 02.09.16 at 11:58 pm

Trump and Sanders win big in New Hampshire. Interesting times for America if either one of them wins. For very different reasons.

#144 Big Dipper on 02.10.16 at 12:06 am

“So cute. Hey, that’s me in 1969. The times they are a-changing. Again. — Garth”

————————————-

Yeah well, not everyone sold out at an early age. I, and my youngest son Bernie Sanders, did not.

Back at Postmedia, on which you did a piece bemoaning their cutbacks, here’s a quote from the link below:

“Consider Postmedia, the biggest newspaper chain in the country.

It is largely owned by an American hedge fund, which regularly drains the member newspapers’ dwindling profits at a handsome interest rate as their newsrooms are merged and hollowed out to cut costs, and editorial direction is dictated from corporate headquarters.

No one knows where it will end, but end-stage asset stripping is probably a safe bet.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/marty-baron-neil-macdonald-1.3435715

There you go Garth, capitalism at its finest! Surely, the destruction of peoples lives is irrelevant.

Go Bernie!

#145 Bottoms_Up on 02.10.16 at 12:14 am

#115 Herb on 02.09.16 at 10:28 pm
——————————-
With the proof that is out there on how humans dumping gigatonnes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere is warming the planet and acidifying our oceans, denying it is akin to believing the earth is flat or elvis is alive or humans have never been to the moon or vaccines cause autism or flouride is added to water to harm people or airplane exhaust contains secret mind control chemicals or Garth doesn’t have a bionic leg.

#146 Mark on 02.10.16 at 12:30 am

“with a possible max support level of 35$ 10 years out. barring a major event coming to pass that supports a higher increase”

Shale wells can’t be profitably drilled and produced for an all-in-sustaining cost of production of less than $60-$70/barrel. Similar long-term costs in the oilsands.

Shale wells deplete very quickly, and within a couple years, assuming no new investment, a few million barrels per day of shale production could be depleted.

Thus, the equilibrium price for oil is likely similar to its marginal cost of new supply, ie: $60-$70/barrel. Not $35 by any stretch of the imagination.

The wildcard is how badly will capital be constrained once the shale sector implodes, and the oilsands sector destroys the equity of its investors? Probably quite a bit. So maybe that $60-$70/barrel, with expensive capital in the calculations, becomes closer to $80-$90/barrel.

One thing I can say for certain, and that is, the sector will probably be doing a lot more hedging than before, and will be dramatically more relentless in its quest to lower labour costs than it has been in the past. Equity returns to O&G investors might actually be very good going forward once there has been a meaningful liquidation phase. Once again, diversified portfolios win the game in the sector (ie: upstream, downstream, mid-stream), even if they aren’t all that sexy when certain parts are out of favour.

#147 Leo Trollstoy on 02.10.16 at 12:46 am

So in essence he is a polite jerk.

I agree. Walmark is wrong most of the time, and he thinks getting a callback from hr is hard lol but he is polite. Thank goodness life punishes the dumb.

#148 Leo Trollstoy on 02.10.16 at 12:48 am

The Teranet HPI figure has NOTHING to do with ‘sales mix’.

U are correct. Don’t worry about walmark. He’s been wrong in his investments going on 2 yrs now. He needs to refocus on upping his life skills game. Try to get those hr callbacks first before graduating to harder things, like arithmetic lol

#149 Leo Trollstoy on 02.10.16 at 12:51 am

Hey Bram,he won’t listen to anyone.

Don’t worry about walmark not listening. Life has an awesome ability to punish dumb ppl. His investment advice has been wrong for 2 yrs, he thinks getting hr to notice applicants is hard, and thinks it’s difficult to earn $100k. Life is punishing walmark of sadkatoon well enuff lol hilarious

#150 Leo Trollstoy on 02.10.16 at 12:53 am

#98 WUL on 02.09.16 at 9:56 pm

Brutal. I should go visit

#151 Leo Trollstoy on 02.10.16 at 12:54 am

I’m into making loot. Not pats on the back from my master.

This is why SM rocks

#152 GenXer on 02.10.16 at 1:23 am

#125 Ontario taxpayer on 02.09.16 at 10:55 pm @genxer
Nobody helped out Ontario when manufacturing started the race to the bottom.

$9.5 billion bailout of GM who then closed their Ontario plant as soon as they could?

True. Canadian taxpayers lost 3.5 billion when Harpo sold the shares to “balance” the budget in time for the election. Maybe he should have listen to Garth and not sold when he was scared.

#153 BS on 02.10.16 at 1:28 am

Millennial Realist on 02.09.16 at 10:19 pm

To any of the Boomer 1%ers who frequent this blog:

If you want to know, and better understand, why the world you have profited so much from is about to be replaced, turn on CNN and watch Bernie Sanders’ speech tonight on replay.

So the millennials have selected a 74 year old career politician who started in politics in the 1960s to represent them? Then they direct us to CNN to get the message? LOL.

Poor Millennials. The flunky generation. Isn’t there just one of you smart enough to lead the way?

#154 liquidincalgary on 02.10.16 at 2:15 am

pathcontrolmonk on 02.09.16 at 6:56 pm
Albertans can always learn Mandarin and sell condos to gullible buyers from Chengdu.

============================================

or we could learn french, now that we are a have not province; and, threaten to leave if ANYONE dare take away our $$$ again.

#155 Donald Freck on 02.10.16 at 2:21 am

#67 Jaguar

“What many people fail to understand is that the word “Albertans” represents a group of people from all over the country. Most ‘Albertans’ are from other provinces. ”

Revolution and reality have turned on the unsuspecting, like Calgary Mayor Nenshi who suddenly has his phone likely burning off the hook from his ‘otherwise unemployable constituents’ who came from ‘elsewhere’ to bolster his community and fund Jihad back home with oil patch pay cheques vanished into thin air. All that support money gone now, boo hoo.

NDP support for the ‘knee jerk voters’ has come home to roost for Albertnutz. I’ll bet the voters will never make that mistake again. BC had a brief flirtation with knee jerk politics back when the wrecking ball NDP had BC go from 1st to last. The voters have never elected another NDP mob.

I’m suspecting the T Shirt of Harper asking “Miss me Yet” is fast growing in popularity among average working Canadians who see the parasitic union jobs protected but everything else swirling down the toilet.

#156 liquidincalgary on 02.10.16 at 2:26 am

Freedom First on 02.09.16 at 7:10 pm
#5 Freedom First

Not me, but not bad.

==========================================

that’s ok. the ‘imposter’ is more entertaining anyway!

#157 liquidincalgary on 02.10.16 at 2:31 am

ALBERTASTROPHE on 02.09.16 at 7:16 pm
The personal stories of strife and family breakdown I am hearing are getting worse and more frequent. This is the underside of the bigger macro trends here.

So much of this would be much more manageable if we had better governments the last forty years.

Conservative politicians have been absolutely idiotic, completely moronic and incompetent managers of our economy. We should have been as well prepared as Norway to handle this inevitable downturn. Instead, we are broke and incapable of doing anything to help Alberta pull through.

=========================================

if we were ‘better prepared’ for this and ‘more like Norway’, then we would still be a “have” province, supporting the hydro rich enery areas like quebec

#158 Freedom First on 02.10.16 at 2:36 am

#50PVSsinsight

I guess you don’t know who I am. I did.

#159 Freedom First on 02.10.16 at 2:38 am

#46 Ontario’s Left Coast

You never disappoint. Always the idiot.

#160 Donald Freck on 02.10.16 at 2:42 am

Starvation settles in to Main Street Canadian working families.

Conversation at the Trudeau house.

“Justin, why do those filthy peasents have a say about how many nannies I need?”

“Never mind my peach, they’ll be under heel soon enough, pass the Grey Poupon”.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/high-food-prices-inspire-montreal-130600139.html?nhp=1

#161 Freedom First on 02.10.16 at 2:57 am

#77 Trading Naked

Yes. You’re right. It is great to be me.

#162 Freedom First on 02.10.16 at 3:12 am

#87 Prairie Oysters For All

I work out, run, cycle, play sports and lift weights. But don’t worry, asshole, I am a pacifist. A lover, not a fighter, so to speak.

#163 Freedom First on 02.10.16 at 3:16 am

#97 Don

KMA

#164 Freedom First on 02.10.16 at 3:20 am

common sense and flop. Mark makes both of you look like idiots. But, then again, you both do a good job of that yourselves.

#165 family beagle on 02.10.16 at 3:40 am

#107 45north on 02.09.16 at 10:07 pm
family beagle: If the average price for a house in Vancouver proper is 1 mil plus, did the housing market just inflate itself out of CMHC jurisdiction?

I had the same thought. CMHC and the big banks may be getting out of the way. Very Quietly.

……

And what about HELOCs? Are they demand notes? What margins do most people have in their equity loans? That could add up over a million quickly. Are loans of 300k for this property floating on that property, etc.? I remember the one and only car loan I had and the bank wouldn’t let me sell the vehicle because the buyer was a grand less than what I could cover in my bank acct. I was broke and they suddenly got stingy. I had to make payments until I could buy my way out.

G. Turner – That poster, for the insurance, reminds me of this dude named Icarus…

#166 Mark on 02.10.16 at 4:04 am

“Why do socialist types insist on subsidizing giant overly profitable Canadian banks at the expense of innocent bystanders.”

I agree with most of your post, and have brought up the same points numerous times in the past. But to answer this question, perhaps the real reason is that the banks have essentially captured the political system in Canada. They fund the “red” team through political donations. They fund the “blue” team through donations. And the ‘orange’ politicians are often such poor personal managers of money that they’re often captured indirectly as well. Just remember the horror that many Greaterfool blog readers expressed when Garth told us that their “leader” had re-mortgaged his house 11 times for inexplicable reasons.

Similar logic applies to the public pension plans in Canada like the CPP. Why should small businesspeople be forced to deduct money from their employees’ paycheques which gets invested in their competitors? Or is used to buy dorm rooms in the UK at a time when many Canadian students can’t find reasonable accommodation. To say nothing of the scandal of paying public pension fund managers millions for jobs that bear less importance and responsibility than that of Canada’s Prime Minister.

#167 TD, IEA and the $1 Down People... on 02.10.16 at 4:36 am

Firstly Garth, sorry about the Jingle Mail post…posting to remind some younger Commentators here about history and it does repeat but I agree, too early.

Before Jingle Mail (and recall) comes the $1 Down People that will “buy” your property for that amount; however, they do not transfer title. Back in the early 80s the Calgary foreclosure courts were flooded with a 6 month backlog, minimum. The $1 Down People would then rent your place out knowing they had 6 months of breathing room before the courts would come looking for the unsuspecting sellers.

Then banks like BoM kept foreclosed properties from the Calgary RE market to prevent a widespread RE price collapse…my best friend, then a well connected Calgary RE lawyer, told me BoM alone had about 3500 foreclosed properties which were withheld from the RE market (probably why they never finished the 2nd tower back then).

Add to that now banks are letting mortgage payments slip by 3 to 6 months per some of this Blog’s Commentators (you have to wonder how long the banks can do this and not sustain losses – probably a cost-benefit analysis of delinquent payments vs. the cost of foreclosure, applying for insurance relief and/or holding onto depreciating inventory).

So yes, more stalling shenanigans to come before Jingle Mail and all of it ending in no good…stalling the inevitable: a negative price correction AND waiting until the economy turns around.

Worse news is that the IEA (and many others as you have pointed out) do not see the oil price going up in the short term (2017?), last week oil futures slipped to the low $30 range and TD Bank’s Tuesday Report estimates that ONLY 20-30% of total Canadian oil production can generate any positive cash flow at current prices.

As you in general you advised, in a prior post to a naive Moister with RE in Calgary, wait and see, the worst is not yet come.

I agree.

Many of my AB friends are saying that “this one” will be worse than “the one” in the early 80’s…incomprehensible to me having lived it back then.

Is there any good news in our economy to come?

I hope so, I truly do. Some on this blog complain about doomers and gloomers. True, but reality is reality, inescapable.

An after early 80s recession saying in AB: “Please God, give us another oil boom, we promise not to fritter it away” – substitute freely for the word “fritter”.

#168 the Jaguar on 02.10.16 at 7:34 am

#101 GenXer

It’s not an “ouch” contest. Those industries who received ‘federal bailouts’ on their way down is a matter of public record, as are the areas of the country that receive heavy subsidization from other provinces. The Premier of Saskatchewan called them out publicly.
And I like the view from up here on my high horse. It’s amazing.

#169 Millennial Realist on 02.10.16 at 7:47 am

It’s been interesting to read all the comments after my post last night, noting Bernie Sanders huge win and what that portends. Thanks all.

First, thanks to Garth for calling me “cute”. My GF agrees!

Secondly, the most telling comment was this one, by Alberta Blue Blood:

“Did you steal this soapbox from Stalin? Or was it Lenin? (They are both so boring, I never bothered remembering which is which.)”

Stalin? Nope.

Lenin? Nope.

Try….Eisenhower.

When you Boomer 1%ers realize how out of touch you are, how much you have distorted our system to serve the 1%, how you are betraying the common sense principles of economic fairness of even Republican statesmen, people who saved us from Hitler and Stalinism in the past…….

…..then will you Boomers perhaps clue in to how much the system is out of whack? Or will it take complete social disruption to accomplish that?

I know what we’re smoking Garth,…….but what on earth are YOU smoking?

Of course you Boomers think we should do what, go back gratefully to our ten year unpaid/underpaid internships and be silent?!?

LOL.

Thank goodness you Boomers are now politically irrelevant.

People will vote their wallets, as they often do. Bernie speaks directly to the condition of the wallets of most Americans. This is not some ideological leap of faith. For most, it will be a very considered, pragmatic choice.

That should give you pause.

On investing, while Garth’s advice remains sound overall, be careful. Many of the kinds of investment choices that have been previously seen as stable are in fact merely propped up by an unfair system. Beware of companies that depend on the old, unbalanced ways of how our insider-controlled markets have operated.
A new era for a new type of financial advisor is coming.

Feel free to find a new type of financial blog, too. — Garth

#170 Smoking Man on 02.10.16 at 8:03 am

Very important story explaining the yield curve.

I’ve been following the guy for years. His track record as good as mine.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/flashing-warning-signs-canadian-markets-bracing-for-dramatic-bank-of-canada-action-and-a-recession

#171 common sense on 02.10.16 at 8:26 am

Now THERE’S the freedom first we all know and love.

Have a great day!

#172 The Econoom on 02.10.16 at 8:30 am

#167 TD, IEA and the $1 Down People…

You, sir, are an imbecile. “My best friend, a well connected” this or that. Who cares? Your stories are nothing but hearsay and you know next to nothing more than any of the rest of us.

#173 Retired Boomer WI on 02.10.16 at 8:39 am

#112 Millennial Realist

You DO realize anyone of us Boomers could have written (or did write) essentially the same sentiments?

Garth’s comment “So cute. Hey, that’s me in 1969. The times-are-a-changing’ again.” SO fitting, AND so true!!!

Many of us so hated the Vietnam War, the racism, the lies, the ‘unfair’ laws. Yeah, some of it got changed, some did not. We took to the streets to change things, not to kill.

In another 40-50 years you will probably note similar results, and have your kids, and grandkids generations thinking you guys were the dumbest asses yet created.

Here is the baton of leadership – Don’t blow it, kid.

#174 The American on 02.10.16 at 8:42 am

At #116: For those about to flop, do you know what is better than winning gold medal in the Special Olympics? Not being Mark.

#175 Not 1st on 02.10.16 at 9:04 am

Millennial realist. That’s a funny term

Anyway your socialist utopia has been tried before. Maybe you should pick up a book once. Anyway the results have been disastrous to say the least. Many countries bankrupted themselves in the process. Others went to war.

#176 Herb on 02.10.16 at 9:08 am

#122 herethere

… Swiss neutrality, was accepted by uncle Adolph, because he was afraid of their navy.</blockquote

What a great line! Makes as much sense as a lot that's been written about WW II – and subsequent events.

#177 jess on 02.10.16 at 9:09 am

education bubble?
federal government crackdown on the scandal-plagued vocational education sector

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/thousands-of-students-caught-up-in-major-college-collapse-20160210-gmqt8x.html#ixzz3zlt7McCw
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

================

University of Phoenix owner Apollo Education to go private in $1.1B deal

#178 Herb on 02.10.16 at 9:12 am

#138 MF,

Obama –

He talks and does nothing. That is how he is portrayed.

By Republicans, of course.

#179 Herb on 02.10.16 at 9:14 am

#141 Alberta Blue Blood,

*YAWN* to you too.

#180 Danforth on 02.10.16 at 9:22 am

We’re 41 days into the year, and I’m down 10.5%.
Trailing 12 months, down 8.4%

Its not funny anymore!

Sounds like a DIY investor with an unbalanced portfolio. — Garth

#181 Leo Trollstoy on 02.10.16 at 9:26 am

i see a lot of b*tchin but few solutions. typical wage slave cryin

#182 Julia on 02.10.16 at 9:29 am

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/shadow-flipping-real-estate-1.3440824

All this “shadow flipping” talk. Forget about seller’s emotions about ultimate selling price, to me that’s irrelevant as they agreed to the price. Can someone tell me what the risk to the seller is? What if the ultimate buyer doesn’t close? Who does it revert to?

#183 Smoking Man on 02.10.16 at 9:29 am

The irony, Feminazis are bent out of shape and freaking out now that it looks like Ghomeshi is going to walk do to collusion between victims and down right lies.

Now would I encourage a sister or daughter to date Ghomeshi hell no. But there are two sides to every story and court is a good place to get it out.

His lawyer, a female is coming under attack by the Feminazis

Yet they are silent on the New Year’s Eve rape and grope fest in Cologne Germany perpetrated by migrants.

Haven’t heard a peep out of Wynne on Cologne. You see it’s only home grown men that they have issues with.

This article explains it:

http://russia-insider.com/en/society/what-has-happened-west-and-its-men-hypnotic-dance-death/ri12753

#184 Herb on 02.10.16 at 9:43 am

#144 Big Dipper,

Yep, “the destruction of peoples lives is irrelevant” to “capitalism at its finest”. Its relevance is a socialist kind of thing. And “trickle down” is supposed to work and brign prosperity to everyone.

But I do not bemoan the demise of the National Post. Considered that a blight on journalism after a free subscription to it delivered with my Ottawa Citizen. (Ended my subscription to that too because I saw no point paying for the delivery of right-wing propaganda.)

#185 dementiahassetin on 02.10.16 at 9:51 am

“Millennials on the other hand expect to have it all right now, it’s their right! After all, they boomers have always had it, right? Wrong. Suck it up cupcake and go out and make something of yourself, you have opportunities my parents couldn’t even dream of. Gather up your participation awards, throw them in the garbage and take responsibility for your own success. It’s not a given, it takes work.”

That is just a blustering, condesending, fart.

“Suck it up cupcake and go out and make something of yourself, you have opportunities my parents couldn’t even dream of”

We don’t want to live your dreams. Your life is not a goal. You’re a relic if you assume so. You will be replaced, as we all are.

Good riddance.

#186 MF on 02.10.16 at 9:53 am

So Janet Yellen says the fed path going forward is dependent on “whether turmoil persists”.

So they tell us everything is rosy for years, raise the tiny .25, and now mention “turmoil” and negative rates? Is this supposed to inspire confidence? Lol Whatta Joke.

#178 Herb on 02.10.16 at 9:12 am

Yeah but Sanders is seen as too nice and Clinton is mired in controversy. Plus the pendulum shift. Republicans have momentum. And many people don’t buy the recovery story from who’ve I talk to.

MF

#187 Herb on 02.10.16 at 9:58 am

#173 Retired Boomer WI,

right on! (As we used to say at the time.)

#188 Millennial Realist on 02.10.16 at 10:04 am

#173 Retired Boomer

“Here is the baton of leadership – Don’t blow it, kid.”

As usual, Retired Boomer, your comments seem thoughtful and balanced, with a generous spirit.

Thanks for your approach. Sorry if I come across as angry, but like a lot of people I am “feeling the Bern'” these days.

“Many of us so hated the Vietnam War, the racism, the lies, the ‘unfair’ laws. Yeah, some of it got changed, some did not. We took to the streets to change things, not to kill. ”

Here’s a key difference: We can oppose similar things as well today. But in your youth, you could oppose those things, yet still have the calm of basic economic fairness to come home to after the protests. This included decent-paying jobs, upward mobility, a buy-local attitude, straightforward opportunity to own a home in your twenties (not having to wait until your forties like many now) and start a family. And most Boomers got so comfortable, so quickly, so easily, that they quickly came to look back on their earlier protests as “just a phase” in growing up.

We have none of that comfort today.

Is that a meaningful difference? We sure think so. Wouldn’t you if you had to deal with Vietnam and racism and as well as grotesque economic inequality that meant you could never know if you had a decent paycheck next month even though you were busting your ass to find work?

The human lifespan has not gotten much longer, so we all still only have so much time to have a life and all that matters in it. We’ll spend most of ours, if lucky, just scrambling into the middle class reality that you pretty much started with when you were 20.

“In another 40-50 years you will probably note similar results, and have your kids, and grandkids generations thinking you guys were the dumbest asses yet created.”

I would love to have little ones telling me how dumb I am :) I am sure they would mostly be right, too.

But for so many of my friends, we won’t be having kids, or grandkids, at all. Our economic adolescence has been made near-permanent by the distorted system that has, largely, been created and supported by your generation, enriching the 1% and blaming everyone below for their “own financial errors.”

Instead, the controlling elites will encourage more impoverished immigrants and temporary foreign workers to come to Canada, to fill any employment population gaps. They won’t complain, either.

The kids of the future will have far fewer decent jobs. Climate change will be wreaking havoc. Technology will be further appropriated by the few, even medical technology to extend human lives – if you’re rich enough.

But there will probably be a lot of positions in policing and being domestic servants, as long as you go along with the herd.

Unless we say enough is enough, and fight for change now.

I will say it again:

People are not voting out of some sudden conversion to “socialism”.

They are voting their wallets. In North America, that has always been the most powerful force for social change.

This time too. I think it is already unstoppable.

#189 Ronaldo on 02.10.16 at 10:14 am

Yellen on rates.

http://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/article?locale=EN&newsid=w55224&mobile=false

#190 Julia on 02.10.16 at 10:19 am

#183 Smoking Man

Ghomeshi is a creep. The victims screwed up by having not having fully disclosed to police. Maybe the crown screwed up on this as well.

Ghomeshi’s lawyer is extremely tough and doing a great job. That’s what she’s paid to do and I have a lot of respect. He will get off.

#191 MF on 02.10.16 at 10:30 am

#188 Millennial Realist on 02.10.16

You must be a young millennial. Watch as you get older, how you and everyone you know slowly become their parents. I’m 32 and I can see it in all my friends and it’s unstoppable.

Watch your political and social beliefs slowly change as you start to experience more life/work/love.

And LOL at this us vs the boomers argument. Do you know how many of us totally depend on their boomer parents for support? Ask your buddies where the money for their Kandos and cars come from. Ask about who paid for their uni education. You’ll see.

MF

#192 Millennial Realist on 02.10.16 at 10:35 am

I forgot to mention, one other enormous difference between Boomers and younger adults today.

Education. In the 1970s, you could easily pay for a year of university tuition with a summer job. Today, each year is a three to five year debt around your neck, lucky to be paid off by the time you are 40. An MBA at Queen’s might have cost you $2K in the 1970s. Today, it’s $79,000. All thanks to tax cuts for the wealthier that have gutted available funding for higher education.

Free or more fairly-priced education came up several times in Bernie Sanders’ victory speech last night. Not a surprise, and very strategic.

Again, he will drive the youth vote like no other – they will be voting their wallets, just like Wall Street types always do.

But this time there are way more of us at the polls.

#193 maxx on 02.10.16 at 10:35 am

“Those who decided to hang on for six or eight or ten months and wait….”

They’ll be sitting on those costly millstones for ages. Cry us a river.

Stunned-pecker bureaucrats lulled most every re buyer, including themselves, into believing that they had everyone’s bricks and mortar backs. The future’s so bright…..for those who believed that, there are plenty more 1MM roach-infested rat-traps in Canukistan to flog.

Note to leaders: Money has “migrated” (but, most definitely not on its own) to all the WRONG places in obscenely WRONG proportions!

There is no QE cure. No ZIRP cure. No imminent miracle of industry. Industry’s been hoverin’ and coverin’ over their piles of cash and they won’t loosen up anytime soon. Nope. Same deal for savers. Hover and cover.

The world will be going sideways for decades with this retarded methodology of fire-hosing money into the economy, then gently blowing ever downwards on interest-rate levers. Wet lettuce fiscal management.

Demographics have boomers wanting to get the h*## out of increasingly boring, stupid jobs and retire. Millennials want a bit of traction in order to start their lives and the ones in the middle just want to hang on until they can get the h*## out – asap. And yes, work is generally getting increasingly boring, stupid and pointless.

We’ll all be moving sideways, whilst piling on more debt and encountering enormous, increasing stress on all social programs going forward. “Hip surgery? That could be seven years wait, sir. OTC analgesics may help.”

Economic action plan: Slide sideways……increased debt…..election…..slide sideways……increased debt…..election……rinse and repeat.

Maybe a caped crusader will come along……

#194 President trump on 02.10.16 at 10:42 am

I will roast that Bern. TOTAL LOSER.

#195 Capt. Obvious on 02.10.16 at 10:42 am

@ #188 Millennial Realist

I’m curious if you’ve read Animal Farm?

In any case, over the medium term the best hope for the lower hoping to be middle class will be a guaranteed minimum income. As you say, technology is likely to continue to replace jobs that can be automated. Competition for well paying jobs is likely to increase.

#196 45north on 02.10.16 at 10:45 am

family beagle: I remember the one and only car loan I had and the bank wouldn’t let me sell the vehicle because the buyer was a grand less than what I could cover in my bank acct. I was broke and they suddenly got stingy. I had to make payments until I could buy my way out.

pretty funny

I was just wondering how much money RBC is loaning out in Vancouver? You’d think they know.

#197 Smoking Man on 02.10.16 at 10:46 am

Millennial Realist

What I admire about you, you have a lot to say. Not many in your generation would take the trouble to hit the keyboard hard and get your opinion marked on the wall of history.

It doesn’t matter in my Super Human mind that you are 100% wrong.

I’m sure you’ve been conditioned to believe that you’re are smart being a proud owner of the coveted obedience certificate.

But until you knock on 10,000 doors selling a product that no one really needs is where a real education is obtained.

You will discover this as you grow older. One day you will realize I was right. But in the meantime keep posting your ideology, puts me back to my youth when I thought like you.

#198 jess on 02.10.16 at 10:47 am

1. In politics, the use of “dirty tricks” to discredit one’s opponent(s). This often takes the form of false or semi-false accusations spread through underhanded means. The term was coined in the 1960s by Hunter S. Thompson and Bob Woodward. (urban dictionary)
e.g. swift boat and any relationship to 2 suicides?

==================
http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-missouri-gop-20150404-story.html

========
Ted Cruz’s Chief Dirty Trickster and the Degradation of Politics
— Bill Berkowitz for BuzzFlash at Truthout

http://www.truth-out.org/buzzflash/commentary/ted-cruz-s-chief-dirty-trickster-and-the-degradation-of-politics

#199 Smoking Man on 02.10.16 at 10:50 am

#191 MF on 02.10.16 at 10:30 am
#188 Millennial Realist on 02.10.16

You must be a young millennial. Watch as you get older, how you and everyone you know slowly become their parents. I’m 32 and I can see it in all my friends and it’s unstoppable.

Watch your political and social beliefs slowly change as you start to experience more life/work/love.

And LOL at this us vs the boomers argument. Do you know how many of us totally depend on their boomer parents for support? Ask your buddies where the money for their Kandos and cars come from. Ask about who paid for their uni education. You’ll see.

MF
…………..

Wow good stuff grasshopper. You are coming along nicely.

You are almost ready to start a business I’m thinking.

#200 fancy_pants on 02.10.16 at 10:58 am

Everyone needs a place to live, not everyone has to play the stock market. Hows your portfolio doing?
I told you they were both bubbles. that is what happens when funny money is injected into the economy. negative rates or more QE. pick your poison.

An economy based forever on credit and fractional reserve doesn’t work long term. period. The ratio between actual money and debt will always grow. And socialism will ensure we all end up at the bottom of an empty barrel (other than the elite pulling the strings).

#201 Rational Optimist on 02.10.16 at 10:59 am

182 Julia on 02.10.16 at 9:29 am

“Can someone tell me what the risk to the seller is? What if the ultimate buyer doesn’t close? Who does it revert to?”

You’re right: that’s the most important question. If the third or fourth assignee down the line doesn’t close, would it revert to the others? They assigned the contract, including the obligations of it. If someone has a definitive answer, I’d be really interested, too.

#202 45north on 02.10.16 at 11:01 am

Smoking Man: from your link: In my correspondence regarding the events in Cologne, an editor of a Russian newspaper asked me a natural, but discouraging question; “Where were the German men?”, he inquired of me, perplexed.

my thought too

#203 fancy_pants on 02.10.16 at 11:03 am

Remember, a liberal is someone who feels a great debt to his fellow man; a debt he proposes to pay off with your money.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-reach-10000-mark-in-syrian-refugee-resettlement-program/article28141967/

Alberta, shame on you for pumping dirty oil all these years. Nothing for you. repent! ps. free prayer mats if you need one. love T2

#204 A Canadian Abroad on 02.10.16 at 11:04 am

This just in from Vancouver realestate fraud:

Vancouver mom awarded $70K after alleged real estate scheme involving currency exchanges and con artists

..single mother has been paid nearly $70,000 in compensation by the Real Estate Council of B.C. after she was allegedly defrauded of $100,000 by suspended Vancouver realtor Dacheng (Damon) Wan and convicted fraudster Ayaz Dhanani.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/single-vancouver-mom-gets-70000-compensation-from-real-estate-council-of-b-c-after-alleged-fraud

and…

BC premier tells real estate industry to act on allegations facing some agents:

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/real+estate+council+shouldnt+lead+probe+into+shadow+flipping/11707713/story.html

Might not end so well for the realtors in Vancouver.

#205 Godth on 02.10.16 at 11:09 am

#188 Millennial Realist on 02.10.16 at 10:04 am

Pretending that the future in 40 or 50 yrs.will resemble anything like the present is beyond my comprehension.
Why societies collapse
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IESYMFtLIis

#206 USDCAD on 02.10.16 at 11:10 am

Smoking Man, are you getting back into USDCAD?

Seems that USDCAD has formed a new level here in this range. Oil no longer as much of a factor as debt and rates now. BoC faced with recession could pull a drastic move and Fed’s Yellen is still on track for more hikes this year. US banks are better insulated this time from a downturn and NPLs than the banks in Canada. European banks are just zombies now with a promise of ECB share buying to propping them up. USD still looks like the cleanest shirt by a mile.

#207 bill on 02.10.16 at 11:13 am

#176 Herb on 02.10.16 at 9:08 am
ran across this recently….
http://www.pdfarchive.info/pdf/D/Do/Douglas_Gregory_-_Gestapo-Chief.pdf

#208 604 RE manipulation on 02.10.16 at 11:16 am

The market is driven by a few speculators who flipped houses several times back and forth in a giant ponzi scheme. 604 RE is passed on like a hot potato. Just don’t be the last one holding it!

Quite possibly the same group acting in 416 as well. These are market makers and absent of any real controls or a board which would look closer at the sales and bids over asking procedures, the gang faces no risk of ever being discovered or their ill gotten gains being confiscated.

They have access to banks and mortgage brokers to ensure their exposure to risk is limited as much as possible.

Good luck trying to survive in the 604 RE market! When the tide turns and the gig is up, there won’t be a Greater Fool left to get sucked in.

Timing is everything! The time to get out was last year. Listings will increase this Spring and the stampede for the exits is going to be brutal.

There is no exception to buying and selling RE, not even in 604 or 416.

False. Of all sales in Vancouver in the last two years only 268 properties changed hands more than once. That is less than 5% of transactions, and there is no proof all sellers were speculators – some were doubtlessly smart people just riding the froth. — Garth

#209 Smoking Man on 02.10.16 at 11:23 am

For you Millennial Realist

Post from awhile ago.

The higher up the educational industrial complex a millennial traveled. The more they are disarmed to deal with a rapidly changing world.

Completely robbed of critical thinking skills, logic replaced with emotion, buzzwords and jealousy. They are an experiment of the late Maurice Strong gone terribly wrong. Climate Scam as a prime example.

They have no creative ability to make really easy money. The spirit of entrepreneurship destroyed and replaced with guilt for the homeless and women’s issues, don’t even know yes you can own a business, it’s not about jobs.

Making easy money is a crime in their minds, unless it’s the state confiscating it at gun point to be shared amongst the usless.

They were forced into slavery in high school, volunteer if you want your certificate, that was only getting them ready for internships without pay.

Boomers didn’t do that to you, teacher obeying a ridicules curriculum designed to make happy slaves, rather than have you become pissed off future business owners.

Can you; imagine any Boomer back in the early 80’s working for free. It was unheard of.

We had muscle cars and T-bar roofs. We beat the living shit out of anyone moving in on our Chic’s. I once dropped four Italians in the parking lot because one blew a kiss toward my date. Today I’m still palls with two of them.

Today, millennials have nervous breakdowns over a macro aggression.

In my day an aggression was a punch in the face, we lived, and we learned to punch back.

Millennial men, they run from groping rapists attacking there girlfriends as witnessed in Cologne.

#210 Tony on 02.10.16 at 11:24 am

Re: #23 Rexx Rock on 02.09.16 at 7:02 pm

There’s no jobs anywhere in Canada. The Albertan’s have to choice but to stay in Alberta. The cost of living in Toronto and Vancouver make moving not even an option.

#211 TnT on 02.10.16 at 11:28 am

#112 Millennial Realist on 02.09.16 at 10:19 pm

Bernie and Trump have both tapped into the Wage Earner class resentment of politics.

Wage Earners have been decimated over the past 40 years and are now a major voting bloc

Investor Class have gotten richer by leaps and bounds over the same time period.

Welfare Class maintained the same status.

Salary Class have also maintained the same status but at the cost of the Wage Earner class.

Salary Class – House, Car, Vacation every year, same since 1970

Wage Class – no longer afford House & Car & Vacation because all their jobs were shipped over sea and / or replaced by new economy.

Salary Class could only maintain their status because price for common goods that maintain their status made affordable by over sea manufacturing screwing the Wager Earner class in our hemisphere.

Every talking head on TV is a Salary or Investor Class. Every time these talking heads slam Bernie or Trump the Wage Earner Class get embolden and organized.

The trick is to not be distracted by racial lines drawn to divide the people by the Salary / Investor talking heads but to instead maintain focus on the economic lines of the gross gluttony of Corporate CEO’s vs Wage Earners.

Eat the Rich will be the inevitable outcome if this divide continues to widen.

#212 Rational Optimist on 02.10.16 at 11:29 am

186 MF on 02.10.16 at 9:53 am

‘So Janet Yellen says the fed path going forward is dependent on “whether turmoil persists”.

So they tell us everything is rosy for years, raise the tiny .25, and now mention “turmoil” and negative rates? Is this supposed to inspire confidence? Lol Whatta Joke.’

Where did you read anything about negative rates? Seemed like the message was that the U.S. economy is on track, low unemployment will soon trigger wage growth and inflation, but the Fed will move based on the actual data it sees.

#213 Shawn on 02.10.16 at 11:32 am

Cheap Gas in Alberta

When gasoline prices rise, the howls are deafening.

Now with gasoline at 59.9 cents today in Edmonton the silence is deafening.

Consider that is 57.0 cents before the 5% GST.

It’s just 34 cents per liter before the 10 cent federal tax and the 13 cent provincial tax

59.9 cents per liter is Canadian $2.27 per U.S. gallon and that is just U.S. 1.63 per U.S. gallon despite the much higher taxes in Canada.

Let’s hear it for cheap gasoline, at least in Alberta!

#214 AB Boxster on 02.10.16 at 11:35 am

#190 Julia on 02.10.16 at 10:19 am

Ghomeshi is a creep.
The victims screwed up by having not having fully disclosed to police.

——————————————-
Sure he is.
But don’t kid yourself.
These witnesses are not victims.
Their failure to disclose information was not simple omission of facts.
These were direct efforts to withhold details that would make the charges against Ghomeshi seem ridiculous.

Had the crown know of these actions and behaviors, along with the texts and letters, there would be no trial today.

These witnesses reveled in the thought of bringing this guy down.
They laughed when cross examined once the facts of their absurd behavior, and communications was exposed in court.

While there are many victims of abuse that need compassion and legal remedy, the accusers in the current Ghomeshi case deserve none of this.

While Ghomeshi is no saint, the actions and behavior of these ‘victims’ have likely done more to set back women’s issues, far more than the actions of the accused.

#215 HogtownIndebted on 02.10.16 at 11:38 am

#184 Herb

Agreed, neither do I bemoan the demise of the National Post. Their central command ordered all the papers in the chain to support Harper, for example, even when voters and readers were not on side. Godfrey has been an appalling fellow his entire life, to boot.

I remember when the NP suddenly cut out the new and interesting sections of its paper, presumably because there was no longer much interesting stuff to write about out there. That was one week before September 11, 2001. Good timing to cut off your nose to spite your face, lol. It’s been a shadow of what it could have been ever since, worsening each year.

And I cannot think of a single investigative report, or journalistic ‘find’ ever appearing in the NP, just crappy right wing opinions repeated endlessly by the usual suspects.

Really, the last, most important contribution to journalism and media in Canada was, and remains, Frank magazine. Sounds odd, but it’s true.

You can still find it in news shops around Toronto or online I think. It gossips, for sure, but everyone I know whose business or department has ever been covered by Frank tells me the stuff in there about them was always true. Imagine that, a media source that tells the truth abut the inner workings of media, government and business, without fear!

I would rate good blogs like this one as quite a bit more valuable today than anything like the National Post. That’s just where we are now in public discourse.

#216 Smoking Man on 02.10.16 at 11:38 am

#206 USDCAD on 02.10.16 at 11:10 am
Smoking Man, are you getting back into USDCAD?

Seems that USDCAD has formed a new level here in this range. Oil no longer as much of a factor as debt and rates now. BoC faced with recession could pull a drastic move and Fed’s Yellen is still on track for more hikes this year. US banks are better insulated this time from a downturn and NPLs than the banks in Canada. European banks are just zombies now with a promise of ECB share buying to propping them up. USD still looks like the cleanest shirt by a mile.
……

Sidelines for me, nothing makes sense. Huge draw on oil inventory and oil crashing.

#217 Mike in Edm on 02.10.16 at 11:40 am

#25 Squidly77 on 02.09.16 at 7:08 pm
Jingle mail started a couple of months before Christmas up in Fort Mac, haven’t heard much about it happening in Calgary though.
**************************************
I mentioned this back in the summer during baseball playoffs. One of my best friends bought a house up in ft mac in fall of 2014 and came down to visit for the weekend. He had countless horror house stories about friends and coworkers up there losing their jobs, losing their renters, etc. But the craziest one was that he had one friend hand in their house keys to the bank, thinking they would be the first ones in the city, and the bank manager told them they were the 8th family THAT DAY!

#218 Shawn on 02.10.16 at 11:42 am

MisUnderstanding Money

#200 fancy_pants on 02.10.16 at 10:58 am said:

An economy based forever on credit and fractional reserve doesn’t work long term. period. The ratio between actual money and debt will always grow.

***********************************
What is this actual money you refer to? All money is credit. Get over it.

When we work we get “money” which is a deposited in a bank account, which is a credit that we have at the bank. A liability of the bank. With the money we have a claim on goods and services of the economy of that value. The economy owes us goods and services in return for our work.

To understand money, think about Canadian Tire Money.

It is an I.O.U. (a credit) of Canadian Tire that can be exchanged for goods at the store.

Similarly, Canadian currency or a bank deposit amounts to an I.O.U. from the Canadian economy to the owner of the currency or deposit.

#219 MF on 02.10.16 at 11:43 am

#212 Rational Optimist on 02.10.16 at 11:29 am

No you are correct she didn’t say it, but other members did. I just think that none of them should mention negative rates because it’s a total admission of failure and a confidence killer. Hard to say what is media sensationalism and what is not perhaps.

MF

#220 Mike in Edm on 02.10.16 at 11:47 am

More bad news from the west…
1) I’ve been laid off for 1 week now (white collared worker that worked for an O&G support company in Leduc, and I have not received 1 phone call yet from any of the jobs i’ve applied for. I was laid off the first time in April, and there are probably half as many postings now, and from the head hunters i’ve talked to over the past couple months, they’ve said that they are getting 150+ applicants for jobs like mine when before they would have to go out and poach employees. This is frightening for me as I only got 2 weeks severance. I have lots of savings, but no one ever wants to burn through that.

2) I am good friends with an auto repair shop in Saskatoon. I talked to him this week and he said that even they are finally incredibly slow. He said many of his competitors started to really slow down in October, and it’s finally hit them as well. He says all the young people that would commute to northern Alberta are no longer doing so, and they are either back in their parents basements, or maybe taking some school courses. Either way, they aren’t driving as much, and therefore their cars aren’t breaking down as much as they used to. And this is a European shop, (you don’t typically see jacked up BMW’s with truck nuts on the hitch), so just imagine how slow the Dodge, Ford, and Chevy repair shops must be.

Also, does anyone have any viable rental stats for Edmonton and how much more inventory there is lately and how much cheaper the average rental is going for? I didn’t bother asking my landlord for a rate reduction in April, but I am going to now, but i’d like some hard facts that I can present to her to back up my request for a reduced rate. Every little bit to cut down costs helps, right?

#221 Retired Boomer WI on 02.10.16 at 11:58 am

#188 Millenial Realist

Your comments are quite correct. I do not know where you live (Canada I assume). If Vancouver, or Toronto with their out of reality house prices you may need to leave if owning a house is a goal. Not unlike San Francisco, New York City Chicago’s gold coast.

Even in my prime they were out of reach. When I loved in Buffalo a new home there was High 80’s, Toronto 180’s.
That was 1988-1989. My ages then were what, 20 grand?
Today even worse. Blue collar jobs (what there are don’t pay well- generally). White collar more -maybe- IF skilled (i.e. computer programming, etc.).

As for Bernie, I like Bernie -he will get my vote not Hillary.

School costs today are astronomical! Even in my day, sorry, I could not justify the “added cost” of a college education. 2 years was enough. You could find that entry level job and show the employer what you possessed.
Today, not likely possible.

Things do change…not always for the better.

Yes, there is a difference between countries, sad to say.
You have all the available land, sources up the ying yang, and timber. House prices that do NOT reflect reality. Why should that be?… I can’t answer that one.

We certainly have our problems. Look at the average wages in the US. With a minimum wage of $7.35 an hour tough to pay rent, forget owning anything. Yes, minimum wages should be closer to $9-10 per hour.

That said, I hear of young who can’t show up on time, have no initiative, etc. Might that imply at $7.35 they’re ‘overpaid’ for what they’re worth? Contemplate that…

I have no easy answers. No a lot of my fellow Boomers have not saved diddly for retirement. Not that they could NOT, but that they did NOT. They will be seeing a crappy retirement, and turn to their kids and gov for support.

Seen this a bit with my parents generation, but not like what I fear in the next 20-30 years!

Like I said, here’s the Baton…. Funny Bernie (age 74) not a Boomer, sees things better than anybody else running here. By the way, we pay LESS overall tax burden here now than 60 years ago. See have LESS union labor than 60 years ago as well.

Have we seen social progress since?…. I vote NO.
others might argue, let them…

#222 pinstripe on 02.10.16 at 12:02 pm

Why are fed tax dollars requested to cleanup the damage done by a Big Corp?

Why did the Big Corp not use their employees to cleanup the damage rather than cutting jobs and laying them off?

Does this action by the Big Corp send a Red-Flag to the rest of Canada on what to expect when there is a product spill?

Why are so many politicians manipulating the public to defend the Big Corp?

Why are there so many questions and NO answers?

Just Asking.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/sask-ndp-oil-well-spending-could-be-better-spent-1.3441139

#223 pinstripe on 02.10.16 at 12:13 pm

same old same old, rinse and repeat.

How did the AB pcs and WRP become filled with knowledge and wisdom now?

Rachel is doing an excellent job exposing the flaws in the system set by the pc policy makers. One flaw at a time using the trickle effect. OTOH, the PCs and WRP do not appreciate that approach.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-unite-the-right-cochrane-pcs-wildrose-1.3439885

#224 common sense on 02.10.16 at 12:31 pm

Anyone watch Janet’s testimony?

It’s a beautiful thing to behold…

#225 common sense on 02.10.16 at 12:35 pm

#216 Smoking Man

Great call being on the sidelines…I think the sidelines is the place to be in any market right now.

I thank whoever did the big spike at 10:30am to USDCDN to allow me to take a tiny profit and get me out of there.

#226 WKRP on 02.10.16 at 12:37 pm

#72 Trading Naked:
You are right on!!
Could have, would have, should have … is a game no one can win. Best not to dwell on it as there is often a good reason why things happen as they do, despite what others may think or say.

Going to take a break from reading comments section. Too much Freedom First gloating and drivel, not sure if it’s the real one or a fake.
Too many people entirely too pleased with the demise of others. Sign of the times I guess.
I say Thank You to all the successful folks (by whatever measure of success they choose)who read the blog and comments but who do not feel the need to post about how smart they have been, the brilliant choices they made or how much cash they have yadda yadda.

#227 SWL1976 on 02.10.16 at 12:37 pm

#222 pinstripe

Why are so many politicians manipulating the public to defend the Big Corp?

—————————

Simply put…

Politicians serve the interests of the big corps and not the public

cor·po·ra·toc·ra·cy / kôrpərəˈtäkrəsē / a society or system that is governed or controlled by corporations.

I’m still amused by all of the people who still think that their vote counts in the 21st century

A mass awankening is what is needed to battle this beast

An evolution not a revolution is what is truly required here

#228 Edmontonian on 02.10.16 at 12:41 pm

Good Read, However in 2015 in Edmonton International Airport had about 200 cars that were parked and abandoned at the Airport, mostly newer cars. Lots of people who have come from out East moving back… LOL

#229 NTH on 02.10.16 at 12:57 pm

#214 AB Boxster on 02.10.16 at 11:35 am

AB Boxster, I’m wondering if you believe Ghomeshi hit those women without their consent?
May I request a Yes or No answer only, if you please, thanks.

Not Tonight Honey

#230 fancy_pants on 02.10.16 at 12:58 pm

#218 Shawn on 02.10.16 at 11:42 am

let me know if you don’t see a problem with our system.

http://www.workableeconomics.com/where-does-money-come-from/

#231 SquareNinja on 02.10.16 at 1:01 pm

#39 Marco Polo on 02.09.16 at 7:26 pm

It’s funny that many internets users from Alberta seem to think that Alberta is the engine of Canada’s economy and the only statistic they cite are provincial transfer payments.

Ontario and Quebec make up over 1/3 of Canada’s GDP.

Where do Albertans think oil infrastructure investment comes from?

#232 hope & ruin on 02.10.16 at 1:02 pm

#192 Millennial Realist on 02.10.16 at 10:35 am

from another millennial:

Canadian education is incredibly affordable. If you haven’t figured this out yet then I wouldn’t worry about an MBA. Outside your abilities.

Especially if you’re freaking out about $79k. That’s not even a down-payment in Toronto.

#233 Ronaldo on 02.10.16 at 1:07 pm

214 AB Boxter

”While Ghomeshi is no saint, the actions and behavior of these ‘victims’ have likely done more to set back women’s issues, far more than the actions of the accused.”

A new book on the way. Might be a best seller.

#234 604 RE manipulation on 02.10.16 at 1:14 pm

Garth, you should speak with Kathy Tomlinson

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/investigations/the-real-estate-technique-fuelling-vancouvers-housing-market/article28634868/

Properties don’t get registered under the “assignment” process. They get traded like call options. None of the stats can capture these transactions.

The reason why foreign ownership doesn’t show up in the stats is because the foreign buyers are owners of BC numbered companies which own the title to the RE.

RE has been driven upward with promoters and touts just like stocks. It’s been used as vehicle to make a quick buck.

I would encourage Kathy Tomlinson to try and get data on the leverage of agents and brokers who are holding “assigned” properties until they will flip to a buyer. Also interesting to know if the buyers take out a mortgage that is held by a Canadian bank after the deal is done and the money has been cleaned.

Don’t say this hasn’t entered your mind…

I know all about assignments. I also know fewer than 270 properties in the last two years in Van were sold twice, less than 5% of total transactions. Blame the Chinese. Blame the realtors. Blame clauses. Blame regulators and politicians. When people start blaming themselves for house lust, we shall have some progress. — Garth

#235 Ontario is exceptional!?? on 02.10.16 at 1:19 pm

Ontario and Quebec make up over 1/3 of Canada’s GDP.

Where do Albertans think oil infrastructure investment comes from?

********

In other words the resource rich provinces make up the other 2/3 of GDP?

Canada’s biggest export to the US is by far OIL.

Why are Ontarians and especially Quebecers so far removed from reality that they think Canada as a mainly resource driven economy is somehow exceptional and will not enter a massive recession?

#236 Prairieboy43 on 02.10.16 at 1:19 pm

Meanwhile in Fort Saskatchewan, even Animals are ready to pounce on Urban Opportunities.

http://fortsaskonline.com/local/20858-reported-cougar-sighting

PB43

#237 pinstripe on 02.10.16 at 1:24 pm

Rachel received a lot of criticism for the royalty review but now the flaws are being exposed.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-energy-needs-to-better-track-royalty-reduction-programs-auditor-general-says-1.3442044

#238 USDCAD on 02.10.16 at 1:30 pm

Re Smoking Man
Sidelines for me, nothing makes sense. Huge draw on oil inventory and oil crashing.
**********
Agree that nothing made sense. There was a temporary USD weakness earlier and the crowded trade got sold. Question is are the sellers done? I think so. CAD is overvalued.

#239 waiting on the westcoast on 02.10.16 at 1:31 pm

The Smoking Man says… “We had muscle cars and T-bar roofs. We beat the living shit out of anyone moving in on our Chic’s. I once dropped four Italians in the parking lot because one blew a kiss toward my date. Today I’m still palls with two of them.”

Must be Southern Italians… You would have never taken down a Veneto man… ;-)

#240 Delia Chow on 02.10.16 at 1:31 pm

Canada’s 30 year bond yield just dropped to 1.84%. The low as back in 2015 January-30 at 1.83%.

This was during the Greek debt mess again.

#241 CDNUSD on 02.10.16 at 1:38 pm

#225 common sense on 02.10.16 at 12:35 pm

#216 Smoking Man
Great call being on the sidelines…I think the sidelines is the place to be in any market right now.

I thank whoever did the big spike at 10:30am to USDCDN to allow me to take a tiny profit and get me out of there.
WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW

Its actually nice to see the CDNUSD craziness come around to a less volatile level. Besides SM needs a break, hes boozless now and the old hockey player needs to get his false teeth fixed. Perhaps he has been resting from his Gelding?

#242 waiting on the westcoast on 02.10.16 at 1:40 pm

#188 Millenial Realist

Buddy – listen to the boomer from WI… You are definitely never going to be successful with that attitude.

My philosophy is to achieve despite my pre-conceived notions of where I am at. There are plenty of examples of people who have overcome tremendous obstacles to do well. There is no free ride. I have friends that came from privileged backgrounds who have squandered their birthright and others who came from tremendously sad realms only to become captains of industry.

One thing I can say for fact… It is now easier to become successful than any other time in business. You just have to listen to SM… Go knock on some doors and find out what other people need/want/care about and then get it for them.

All this ‘poor me and my Millennial brethren’ navel-gazing is going to get you are friends at the bar who share your depressed fate.

#243 Julia on 02.10.16 at 1:40 pm

#214 AB Boxter

Interesting perspective. I don’t disagree.

#244 David Lee on 02.10.16 at 2:08 pm

Step back from the details and look at the obvious:

“We are both assured that foreign investment is actually not a significant issue and at the same time, by the same people, told that any restrictions on foreign property investment would cause serious damage to our home equity, the construction industry and the residential sales industry.

Guess what, it can’t be both!”

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/davidfine2/vancouver-real-estate_b_9201620.html

#245 fancy_pants on 02.10.16 at 2:12 pm

prepping false rate hike, take 68 (69,70? – lost track) … and Action!

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/pace-of-rate-hikes-slower-if-the-economy-were-to-disappoint-yellen-1.2772358

My sincerest condolences to those who listened to common sense back in 2009 and are still on the sidelines renting. unfortunately common sense passed away long ago.

http://www.rense.com/general92/deathof.htm

#246 Nobody on 02.10.16 at 2:13 pm

Canada’s bond yield dropping means that the markets have faith in your future ability to repay.

#247 AB Boxster on 02.10.16 at 2:16 pm

229 NTH on 02.10.16 at 12:57 pm

May I request a Yes or No answer only, if you please, thanks.

—————————————-
Actually your question makes a ridiculous presumption.
That being, that in this case, if Ghomeshi somehow had her ‘consent’, that he would be free to assault her.

This case has nothing to do with consent.
It has to do with assault.

The testimony made no mention about ‘Ghomeshi’ asking for consent to kiss the witness in the car.
However they kissed.
Was the fact that they were both kissing together then implied consent?
Or perhaps it was a mutual sexual assault.

And if Ghomeshi pulled her head back via her hair, and bit her neck, was this part of implied consent because they were making out and kissing?

Or did Ghomeshi need to ask specifically whether it was OK to pull her head back by her hair and to bite her neck?

How absurd do you want to make the issue of consent?

The question really is, at any time was there an assault?

Did the witnesses consider the actions ,at the time, an ‘assault’? – Nope. They acted pretty much as if everything was normal afterwards.
Still maintaining ‘relations’ and very friendly communication.

Was there evidence that the witnesses ever said to Ghomeshi any thing such as “Stop that I don’t like it” or
“This is unacceptable behavior”? – Not that I heard.

After the fact, did the witness act in a way that indicated that she had been harmed by these actions ?
Hardly.

The one witness that finally told Ghomeshi to take a hike, did do ultimately because he was saying disrespectful things about her friend, and was crude about their relationship in conversations to others.

Not one of the witnesses actually broke off any relationship with him because of any ‘assault’.

Was was Ghomeshi rougher with these women than they expected? – Likely

Was what was done an actual assault. – Doubtful

#248 Shawn on 02.10.16 at 2:18 pm

Understanding Money

230 fancy_pants on 02.10.16 at 12:58 pm asked:
\
#218 Shawn on 02.10.16 at 11:42 am

let me know if you don’t see a problem with our system.

http://www.workableeconomics.com/where-does-money-come-from/

***************************************
I don’t see a problem. And it’s not clear that the author of the article linked does either.

All hail the great fractional reserve banking system that is an Essential feature of our wonderful prosperity.

#249 Smoking Man on 02.10.16 at 2:23 pm

Attention CRUDE and FX traders. Breaking News on my multi thread twitter news app.

http://news.yahoo.com/saudi-arabia-says-ready-send-forces-syria-coalition-142815868.html

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/492688/world-war-3-saudi-arabia-iran-turkey-iran-ukraine-ground-troops-syria-us-nato-nuclear

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/ISIS-Threat/Saudi-Arabia-prepared-for-ground-war-in-Syria-military-spokesman-says-444362

#250 604 RE manipulation on 02.10.16 at 2:25 pm

Garth: I know all about assignments. I also know fewer than 270 properties in the last two years in Van were sold twice, less than 5% of total transactions.

*****

Either I am not understanding this process or you’re making a mistake in your analysis.

The properties that got sold twice, the 5% of transactions are completed deals that were registered at the title office. That is where the stats comes from.

Nobody knows the number of flips and assignment deals that were made BEFORE the final deal actually closed. Sometimes that means the property changed hands at the brokerage 5 times within the 6 months it took until the actual initial deal closed. From the time the realtor got the signature and sale order from the original buyer to the day the funds settled and the title cleared at the land registry. Technically the property can be flipped numerous times in between and the land registry never sees any extra recordings.

That is why Vancouverites are so upset. They (the vast majority) didn’t know this is how the deals got done and they are now living in an overpriced city where incomes no longer support the cost of living.

Who wants to live and raise a family there?

#251 Smoking Man on 02.10.16 at 2:42 pm

#233 Ronaldo on 02.10.16 at 1:07 pm
214 AB Boxter

”While Ghomeshi is no saint, the actions and behavior of these ‘victims’ have likely done more to set back women’s issues, far more than the actions of the accused.”

A new book on the way. Might be a best seller.
…………………..

The Irony, The feminazis are going after Ghomeshi’s lawyer Marie Henein for being too aggressive.

WTF Isn’t that the entire purpose of feminism, aggressive self assured woman. Oh I forgot, yes aggressive to men only.

Parents with daughters lets hope they aspire to be just like Marie (KICK ASS) Henein

Prey they don’t end up like those publicity seeking bimbo airheads who lied to the crown and police.

Marie Henein is a True Feminist…..

Unlike the man haters protesting outside the court.

#252 Smoking Man on 02.10.16 at 2:50 pm

#239 waiting on the westcoast on 02.10.16 at 1:31 pm
The Smoking Man says… “We had muscle cars and T-bar roofs. We beat the living shit out of anyone moving in on our Chic’s. I once dropped four Italians in the parking lot because one blew a kiss toward my date. Today I’m still palls with two of them.”

Must be Southern Italians… You would have never taken down a Veneto man… ;-)
…………..

I used my car, 4 against 1, please.

I`m not an idiot.

Bit wild back in the day.

#253 waiting on the westcoast on 02.10.16 at 3:21 pm

Warning to misguided millennials… You can’t blame everyone else for the gap between where you are and where you want to be…

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/10/bernie-wins-we-owe-millenials-an-apology-election-commentary.html

#254 cramar on 02.10.16 at 3:23 pm

Every time I hear Bernie Sanders I always get the impression that he is about to croak! Is this guy going to make it to the next election?

He does say some interesting things, but I just cannot get past the impression that he has one foot in the grave.

#255 TurnerNation on 02.10.16 at 3:43 pm

Don’t trust anyone under 30?
Virulent leftists, and anti capitalism.
They’ll be ringing up my purchases at Dollarama.

Today is sucker rally for suckers.

#256 Shawn on 02.10.16 at 3:47 pm

Why Governments Borrow and Should Borrow

#240 Delia Chow on 02.10.16 at 1:31 pm pointed out

Canada’s 30 year bond yield just dropped to 1.84%.

*************************************

Tax payers would FAR rather pay 1.84% per year even in perpetuity as opposed to paying a cost upfront.

With these government borrowing costs you can throw any old rules of debt limits out the window.

Example, Japan can borrow for ten years at negative rates. Why not borrow all they can at that rate?

The lenders apparently see Japan as a most wonderful borrower.

#257 Joe2.0 on 02.10.16 at 3:53 pm

Yellen says she’s not sure if negative interest rates are legal.
If it is, it’s gonna happen, even if it’s not.
Just a matter of a creative stroke of a pen.
The worlds economy is going down the toilet.
Wait till the banks start to fail…again.
Wake up people this is not a drill.

#258 Freedom First on 02.10.16 at 3:53 pm

Yes, the fix is in and the bottom is about to fall. Smokes for all!

#259 Freedom First on 02.10.16 at 3:54 pm

Also, for those about to flop, we salute you!

#260 Freedom First on 02.10.16 at 4:05 pm

Guys, too many fakes here now. Know the truth, there can be only one Freedom First.

#261 Entrepreneur on 02.10.16 at 4:07 pm

#42 old gringo…talk to a lawyer about bankruptcy. I believe it is seven years and you have to sign for it. When in a stressful situation Do Not Panic and think about it first. Many times we thought we had to go through bankruptcy, the brain in a whirlwind, we pulled through. This is the time to talk to a lawyer about financial things. Write down the questions before talking to them in person (not on the phone, only for app.). Talk to them about avenues & consequences. Hope this helps. In the meantime, find any kind of work (we worked for next to nothing but put what little food on the table, tough times).

Yup, the guy on the lowest money pole is ignored and how many more recessions will it take before we realize the system is not working, working for some but not for all. Is that why Donald Trump is gaining popularity? I think so. Obama did a good job with what was given to him but the wheels turned slowly (a big mass to turn on a dime). As for #169/188 Millennial Realist…times are really different now and your turn will come but not in the same manner as us old boomers. Appreciate what you have and work, clean, keep busy. We are all in this together, like it or not.

Debt is like the devil, should not be in play, at least next to nil!

#262 Stoopid Idiot on 02.10.16 at 4:13 pm

These lap dogs are going to turn in jackals real soon…LOL

#263 Smartalox on 02.10.16 at 4:16 pm

@AB Boxster:

Canadian law does not recognize that someone can consent to being physically injured. If you injure someone, you can be charged with assault, even if they were (literally) “asking for it”.

What is left to determine in the Ghomeshi case is the severity of the assault, such as whether the assaults had any lasting effects on the victims, inflicted permanent, debilitating injury, etc.

The lawyer’s tactics seem destined to indicate that the alleged assaults, (if they happened), were minor, and that far from resulting in lasting injury, the complainants were apparently ‘eager’ to pursue relationships with the defendant.

This will be a factor in sentencing, which will likely be a ‘slap on the wrist’ at best, but likely result in probation, or an absolute discharge.

#264 Josh in Calgary on 02.10.16 at 4:17 pm

#112 Millennial Realist,
You have many legitimate gripes. But what is happening right now is neither earth shattering or unique. The younger generations always face challenges in getting started and they always view it as the previous generations fault somehow. The older generation has worked hard for what they have and seek to protect that.

People vote for a left leaning government until they get too corrupt, at which time they vote in a right leaning government until they get to corrupt and so on.

So your choice is to spend your energy whining and complaining about why life’s not fair, or actually figuring out how to rise above it. I can guarantee you that having one government in charge or the other is not going to improve your lot in life much one way or another. That part is up to you.

#265 Freedom First on 02.10.16 at 4:21 pm

#171 common sense

Grasshopper…..you are beginning to show promise. If we can continue with your de-programming…..there may be hope for you. SM is right though, after going through our education system, maintaining the capacity to think is a great accomplishment. Just look around.

#266 Calgary Rip off on 02.10.16 at 4:30 pm

The one thing that is consistent it seems is a lack of satisfaction. High oil prices, they say on the news the oil price is too high. Now the prices are down, and it’s too low. As a chinese Go(wei chi) player once typed, “You have two arms, two eyes, two legs and brain. What is your excuse?”

As much as many things suck, there are things that could be much worse. 1) Nuclear apocalypse. 2) Contaminated drinking water. 3) Non curable disease. 4) AIDS and VD. 5) No money and no job and no one to hire for ANYTHING. If you need help on imagining #5, become American then move to Nanaimo, B.C. No jobs, even working at Burger King.

The key through all this mess is to do something and stay alive. Get some coping tools. Lift weights. Go hiking or running. Board games such as chess are cheap. Religion. Prayer. You are not alone.

#267 HAM on 02.10.16 at 4:48 pm

HAM inflows looking to park money anywhere in RE.

Vancouver suburbs now targeted. Surrey home 14763 – 79 Ave sold for $940K. No conditions; its all cash deal Realtor says and buyer is foreign student (considered local buyer he says).

Oh, house sold for 722K five months ago :)

Check on MLS if you don’t believe me.

#268 AfterTheHouseSold on 02.10.16 at 4:58 pm

What the hell is going on in this country?!!!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/bc-throne-speech-alberta-lost-its-focus-1.3442134

#269 JimH on 02.10.16 at 5:16 pm

#117 Smoking Man on 02.09.16 at 10:42 pm
“Trump resonates with me. Thinking the bugger wants everyone to have a shot at prosperity.”
===============================
SM; you have to be kidding me! Really?

Look. You have a brain; alcohol-addled and atrophied as it might be. Nevertheless, you might try to use it to think with, rather than your gut; AKA your much-abused liver, which at this point strongly resembles the bladder from a ten-year-old junior high school rugby ball.

Seriously. Trump resonates with you? For real?

Donald Trump is no friend of Canada. That ‘wall’ he talks about might well be a reality for Mexico; Canada gets the ‘virtual reality wall’, that is, the destruction of the current NAFTA agreement and a renegotiated agreement totally and completely in Donald Trump’s favor.

In spite of your incessant babbling on this here self-proclaimed ‘pathetic’ blog, you, Smoking Man are a loser; and Donald Trump hates ‘losers’. Oh, just a minute; now this isn’t at all your fault, SM; you’re a Canadian. By every standard that that Donald Trump holds sacred and holy, that fact alone categorizes you as a “loser”… actually, a “LOSER”. Let’s be clear about that!

BRB. I have to close out swing-trade in TZA and day-trades in DUG and DUST (I never hold these unruly teenagers overnight).

There! That feels much better! Much! Where were we?

Oh yes; Donald Trump. What you and all the other ‘Trumpettes’ fail to realize is that Donald Trump is, at heart, fundamentally a very lazy shit.

Being POTUS is a very demanding job; not at all like ‘Reality’ (I use the term loosely) TeeVee. I mean, it’s kind of 24/7; not at all like ‘The Donald’s’ shall we say, ‘flexible’ schedule. As, of course, is your own. (no offense, but you know I’m right. If you spent half as much time trading as you do on this here Alternate Universe blog and got off the booze, you’d be a very rich man). Truth is, you’re not, which is why Casinos hold you in their spell, Smoking Man.

Now let’s do the numbers. Trump, Cruz, Fiorina and Carson (the 4 ‘outsiders’; kind of a joke in itself) actually polled a total of 143,643 votes in NH last night with 95% reporting.

Bernie polled 142,934 (also w/95% reporting) all by his little lonesome. Wow! Isn’t perspective a wonderful thing!

Exit polls were reporting a huge Bern landslide way before the polls closed. There really was no contest vis a vis Hillary. And there really was no reason for a last-minute wave of Bernie supporters to flock to the polls. Otherwise, his lead might have been greater, but who knows.

The bottom line is that Trump won an 11 horse race. About 50% of all registered Republican voters claim they would be ‘disappointed’ if Trump got the nomination and that they would most likely not bother voting.

But the important bottom line, Smoking Man, is that Donald Trump couldn’t give a rat’s ass about you or about Canada; your home and native land.

Yet, you applaud him, support him and have a certain ‘resonance’ with the man.

Shame on you!

#270 acdel on 02.10.16 at 5:18 pm

#268 AfterTheHouseSold

What the hell is going on in this country?!!!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/bc-throne-speech-alberta-lost-its-focus-1.3442134
—————————————————————-
Best quote I read in the link that you sent.

Becoming the money-laundering capital of China isn’t “diversification,” sweetheart.

#271 Freedom First on 02.10.16 at 5:27 pm

Freedom First #258-259-260

Not me. Just another a$$hole.

#272 Newbie on 02.10.16 at 5:33 pm

A funny one “Renting Vs. owning”
http://www.theonion.com/graphic/renting-vs-owning-home-52247

#273 Nemesis on 02.10.16 at 5:45 pm

#WednesdayMischief,Or… #HPSauce?…

[Independent] – Conservative MP moves home with his parents ‘to save up for mortgage’ despite £74,000 salary – ‘In a few years hopefully I will have just saved up enough for a deposit,’ William Wragg said

…”He is now paid £74,000 a year – almost three times the national average – and is also entitled to expenses for a second home, running his office, employing staff and travel.”…

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-mp-says-moves-home-with-his-parents-to-save-up-for-mortgage-despite-74000-salary-a6865551.html

#274 AB Boxster on 02.10.16 at 6:02 pm

#263 Smartalox on 02.10.16 at 4:16 pm

Thanks.
That was a good summary of the issue of consent and its relation to assault and this case in general.

We now return to finance, the stock market and the state of the global and Canadian economy.

Blech!

#275 Retired Boomer WI on 02.10.16 at 6:15 pm

In these uncertain times, it is evident the “Bullshit Purveyours” are out in force on the American TV and radio waves. They surface to take advantage of YOU.

Since ‘X’ happened, the economy is going to hell. That’s why in these times you need:

1. … To buy Gold.

2. …To my stock-markettiming letter.

3. …To invest in my Hedge Fund, Utility Letter,..whatever.

A Fool and his money, are soon parted. Beware!!

#276 Ronaldo on 02.10.16 at 6:22 pm

#267 HAM on 02.10.16 at 4:48 pm

”HAM inflows looking to park money anywhere in RE.

Vancouver suburbs now targeted. Surrey home 14763 – 79 Ave sold for $940K. No conditions; its all cash deal Realtor says and buyer is foreign student (considered local buyer he says).

Oh, house sold for 722K five months ago :)

Check on MLS if you don’t believe me.”

—————————————————————
Interesting. Asking price $949,0000. 2015 Assessment $713,000. Sold July 28/15 for $722,000. Prev year assessment $627,000.

Sold for 49.9% over 2014 assessment. This makes no logical sense whatsoever. I would love to investigate that one.

#277 Bottoms_Up on 02.10.16 at 7:16 pm

#247 AB Boxster on 02.10.16 at 2:16 pm
—————————–
Well what is the actual definition of assault? These actions made these women cry, made them leave, and confused them. Descriptions of punches to the side of the head and choking to the point of making it difficult to breath, is not appropiate behaviour and in my books ranks as assault.

If your boss came up to you and punched you in the side of the head, would that be assault? If you met Garth tomorrow for coffee to discuss your finances and he reached across the table and started choking you with both hands, would that be assault?

#278 FormerSaskie on 02.10.16 at 7:18 pm

RE Picture: Ewwwwwww

#279 Carl on 02.10.16 at 7:36 pm

Why is the dollar going up relative to US?

#280 NEVER GIVE UP on 02.11.16 at 2:27 am

#15 Victoria Real Estate Update on 02.09.16 at 6:55 pm

The Calgary board’s frankenumber house price “index” shouldn’t be taken seriously by anyone. The reality of the situation in Calgary is that house prices have fallen a lot more than what that “index” shows.
———————————————————–
Seriously, Why are we not up in arms with pitchforks and placards in the streets.
It is a blatant lie…Just like the one the government tells us about the under 2% inflation rate.

We have all been “Stockhom syndromed”

#281 CJBob on 02.11.16 at 9:57 am

I have no idea what Garth allows many of these posts… anyway back to investments.

I’m not going to bet against the CAD banks making money, I’m going to jump on the XFN EFT if things drop a bit more. Of course don’t go too crazy with this from a total % basis as the overall CAD index is already heavily weighted to the financials.

#282 M on 02.11.16 at 10:06 pm

“There’s a reason the TSX lost another 250 points today and Canadian government bond yields have declined by almost half in a single year”

Yes it is.. morons think they ll be protected by that crap.
Once the gig is up and pesso goes to 40c US, bonds will turn to $hit and the yields will stratosphere. That’s 5-6% in the new era economy. Portugal anyone ? :)

Of course the southern fairy will come with QE 4,5,6 (after she wets a few packages of depends) so yanks are not going to be much better.

NOW a golden era for making money starts. An open mind and a quick hand will do marvels.

#283 Liquid Sunshine on 02.12.16 at 2:10 pm

“The spread between the yield on 10-year government bonds and 2-year government bonds dropped below 1% for the first time since January 2008. When the difference in yield between these two maturities gets tight, it means bond investors don’t see a lot of future growth. Instead, they see the dreaded “R” word… recession.” – Dent