Shudders

FOR SALE modified

Patrick’s had a bad week.

“Our IT company shut down its entire Canadian branch office today with no warning,” he tells me. “All employees terminated, myself included. It’s not a great situation to be in, but with no debt (rent, no mortgage) and your recommended portfolio I think we can see it through. I shudder to think what people with mortgages and debt do when they’re called into a room and suddenly…”

Interesting times, aren’t they? Federal housing analysts this week said there was “strong overall evidence of problematic conditions” in Calgary. They added that there’s a strong “risk of correction” in Toronto, Saskatoon and Regina. Oh, and there’s a “risk of overvaluation” in Montreal and Quebec City. And in Halifax, prices are now running 7.5% lower than last year and the average days on market is a difficult 137, up 10% from a year ago. In Edmonton, sales are down 9% annually and listings have exploded – up 66%, says the local board.

Hmm. Calgary, Toronto, Saskatoon, Regina, Montreal, Quebec, Halifax, Edmonton – all generating expert concerns, or lousy stats. And most people think the whole country is in a Love-It-or-List-It real estate group orgy, for which you can thank Realtors© and their sycophantic media groupies. The truth, apparently, is that a significant number of markets now suck.

Quelle surprise. Even the T2 gang are running snout-first into economic reality, as Poor Bill Morneau prepares that critical first budget. National Bank economists this week concluded the Libs so misjudged the health of the economy that the next two years will bring $50 billion in deficits and new federal debt. Growth is far weaker than anticipated which means tax revenues are tanking while big infrastructure spending takes place. So it was probably a dumb time to pare middle-class taxes and tell voters that soaking higher-income earners would make up for it. We now know that was a fib. Another $1.4 billion in the red.

The bankers claim the potential for growth in the economy is “seriously curtailed,” although the pop-up in oil prices over the last few days helps. “We knew when we were campaigning we were facing a slow-growth environment,” Morneau says, begging the question of why Canadians were promised a tax cut, more special spending, a balanced budget in four years and lots of sunshine.

Oh well. Politics. Ya tell folks what they want to hear in order to gain office. Alberta’s NDP did the same. No news there.

Let’s get back to Patrick. He rents in Vancouver. And while so many Canadian real estate markets are entering into a more-or-less orderly correction, YVR is a time bomb with the potential to blow up and spray everyone. The last few days have brought more evidence the entire region is going moronic.

Below’s map shows you clearly. The green properties are valued over $2 million. The red ones are between one and two million. The blue ones (can you find any?) and under seven figures. Just look what cheap rates, house lust and popular delusion have done to a once-livable city…

VAN modified

This is the work of analyst Andy Yan who illustrates an incredible fact: in less than a year the number of homes assessed at $1 million or more in Vancouver has increased from 65% to an historic 91%. More arresting, these numbers are six months old, and prices rose another 4-5% since then.

Says Yan: “The low cost of borrowing over the last decade, the effect of global capital entering the residential market, a growing city population, speculative purchase behavior, a cultural and financial predisposition to home ownership versus renting and generational wealth transfer have all shaped the values of residential property.” And while people are quick to say it’s all the fault of offshore buyers, the fact remains that 95% of all trades are local-to-local. The blame here lies squarely on the shoulders of those who joined a speculative fever at odds not only with the rest of the country, but the national economy.

So, it spells risk. Not opportunity. “The economic, social, and cultural consequences in this environment of housing unaffordability has implications for the years and decades to come,” adds Yan, correctly. Anyone buying into this market is gambling. Anyone exiting is a genius.

The above should remind us that millions of Canadians are one paycheque from discomfort, and one job loss shy of disaster. Patrick will survive. Others, not so much.

255 comments ↓

#1 Canadian Real Estate Update on 01.28.16 at 5:21 pm

You can search long and hard but you’ll likely not find a realtor who will admit that Canada’s sky-high housing price run-up has had anything to do with the lowering of interest rates from near-normal to emergency levels since 2009.

Instead they usually say things like: “it’s wealthy Asians” or “we’re running out of land” or “houses always go up in value” or “it’s rich Albertans” …

It’s likely that even realtors know that today’s record-low rates are temporary. If they admitted that house prices move higher as rates fall, then they would also have to admit that house prices fall as rates rise. But this would put damper on sales (and commissions) if they said that to potential buyers, so they give them a convenient sales line that suggests that Canada’s price run-up was due to something that supports the idea of continued price increases, such as wealthy Asians flooding into the city or that house prices always increase.

Obviously mortgage rates in Canada will be moving higher over the next 2 to 3 years and house prices in every major Canadian city will fall as a result. Whether rates rise slowly or quickly, the same result will be realized – much lower house prices. This will happen despite what any housing “expert“ may have to say about it.

The strong correlation between rising rates and falling house prices has been evident throughout the world since borrowing has been a part of home buying. Ask your housing “expert” to explain that. They won’t be able to.

#2 Doug t on 01.28.16 at 5:34 pm

I hear Pay Day Loans is doing great these days

#3 Bobs ur uncle on 01.28.16 at 5:34 pm

How does a 70k median income translate to 91% of houses valued at 1, 2, and 5 million dollars? If I was living in one I’d be cashing out pronto and retiring to a nice affordable location. But who knows – I’d have said that 5 years ago and look where it’s gone. Clearly the market can stay irrational for a long time indeed, especially when the punch bowl stays full. Just kills me that people think it’s a ‘safe’ investment though. So were houses in Fort Mac not so long ago…

#4 Canadian Real Estate Update on 01.28.16 at 5:38 pm

Realtors and other Canadian housing “experts” want you to think that Canada’s extremely expensive housing markets aren’t overvalued (and certainly not bubbly) and that house values here aren’t out of line with housing prices in other countries with similar household incomes (the US, for example).

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Household incomes in Canada and the US are basically the same. The long-term housing price parity that existed between the two countries was broken in 2006 when house prices in the US (naturally) began to correct while in Canada even more dangerous action was taken to blow its housing bubble bigger (by lowering lending standards again and again to enable people with no money to bid up house prices).

Basically, house prices in Canada and the US should be at the same level (this had been the case for decades until 2006) because incomes in the two countries have remained at the same level.

Compare house prices in your Canadian city to prices in these desirable American locations with summer-like winter weather where many Canadians have bought winter vacation homes. You’ll probably notice that prices in your (colder) Canadian city are approximately 3 to 5 times higher than in these (warmer) American cities.

(Criteria: min. 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,800 sq. ft. (above ground, primary living area), no older than 10 years and with an attached double garage.)

$139 K, Jacksonville, FL, 4 beds, 2 baths, 1,922 sq. ft., built in 2006, attached double garage.

$113 K, Titusville, FL (Port St. Lucie), 4 beds, 3 baths, 2,088 sq. ft., built in 2009, attached double garage

$113 K, Coolidge, AZ (Phoenix), 4 beds, 2 baths, 1,903 sq. ft., built in 2006, attached double garage

$120 K, Florence AZ (Phoenix), 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 2,011 sq. ft., built in 2008, attached double garage

$123 K, Dallas, TX, 3 beds, 2 baths, 2,080 sq. ft., built in 2006, attached double garage

$138 K, Fort Worth, TX, 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 2,348 sq. ft., built in 2009, attached double garage

Note that (even cheaper) foreclosure and auction homes were not included.

Realtors will probably write
comments about this post saying that they don’t like the summer weather in Phoenix, for example.

This would be just another example of a pathetic attempt to convince you that you are better off buying in cold Canada and paying 3 to 5 times as much for a comparable house.

All of the evidence points to the fact that Canadians love the warm southern US weather. In 2014, Canadians were the largest foreign investors in Florida real estate. Indeed Vancouver and Victoria have their share of snowbirds.

Canadians absolutely love the weather in the above American cities, otherwise there wouldn’t be American websites set up specifically for Canadian buyers. Examples:

“Welcome Canadians – Phoenix and Scottsdale Real Estate For Canadians”

Canada To Phoenix Real Estate Connection

“Welcome To Canadian Florida Homes – Helping Canadians purchase real estate in Naples, Fort Meyers…”

#5 Smartalox on 01.28.16 at 5:39 pm

Hmm. The way I read that map, the green are over $2M, the red are between $1M and $2M, and the blue are less than $1M. Interestingly, there are vast swaths of grey in the North East end of the city, that indicate data is unavailable – odd, given that assessment data should be universally available. Yan’s more artist than analyst. Remember that he was the guy who scanned property titles and real estate contracts for ‘Asian-sounding’ and ‘Anglicized – Asian’ names, as a means of refuting the 5% HAM figure.

Given that his ‘patron’ is the BC real estate assoc., his data are likely inflated list prices, submitted by a voluntary survey of agents with too much time on their hands.

By the way, I’ve see the BC Assessment’s ‘photo van’ around the city lately, idling on the side of the road, a long-lens camera jutting from a hole cut in the rear window, like a pervert snapping pictures on the sly of kids at a public pool, or bathers at a nude beach.

#6 Wetcoast on 01.28.16 at 5:42 pm

Correction, green is over 2 mil and red is between 1 and 2mil. Red, blue or green pill anyone?

#7 maure on 01.28.16 at 5:42 pm

Oil industry:
-major reserve countries with cheap oil (e.g. Saudis, Iran, Iraq) will not sell 20-30 dollar oil for a long time.
-the are flooding to market to see what the marginal cost really is for other high cost producers
-also, petrostates like Russia, Venezuela, Iran, etc. cannot sell 20-30 dollar oil for a long time without the governments falling from power.
-USA, China and everyone likes their gains in market share at the expense of OPEC, Russia, but it will be a matter of how low a price can USA, North Sea, Canada, etc. can sustain production, vs how long can petrostates handle a low oil price.
-who will crack first only time will tell. But something´s got to give. Whether its simple economics in high cost provinces, or politics in petrostates, who knows? But PR pros are working hard to help their clients.

#8 NOTHING SURPRISES on 01.28.16 at 5:43 pm

With the value of the real estate in Vancouver, the city council should have no problem raising money through the elevated tax base now offered to them with new assessed values.

#9 tex on 01.28.16 at 5:44 pm

Garth, keep up the good work.

So CMHC has decided things aren’t so keen anymore? Odd, just 45 days ago everything was fine, nothing to see here.

Smoking man: glad you closed and decided not to martingale away your returns. After the POLOZ chop ( http://i.imgur.com/aX7N7d4.png ) things definitely changed- you had me concerned a few days back when you were gonna double down.

I made 15% with long position in mid July thanks to your ranting- hat tip to you, internet madman.

Oil, not so sure.

Oh Canada.

#10 Love my Kia on 01.28.16 at 5:44 pm

Your post earlier this week talked about the unfortunate condition of newspapers downsizing and media outlets disappearing.

Well on the millennial front, the college I work at just suspended their Broadcasting and Multimedia program yesterday due to low enrollment. To top it off today, our two local television stations said they would likely close operations by September 1. This is Ontario, not Alberta.

#11 acdel on 01.28.16 at 5:46 pm

I read a blog today on a different post (sorry Garth, yours is still the best) that a Canadian couple spent six months in Asia. They were asked on numerous occasions on what is wrong with Canada, we in Canada have all the natural resources that many countries desire yet we cannot get it to the market due to our inability to act as a country as opposed to self interest idiocy, they are dumbfounded. The couple mentioned that all of them said that they would not invest in Canada minus RE until we wise up! No, not making this up..

#12 mitzerboy aka queencity kid on 01.28.16 at 5:47 pm

my old pile of bones town is in for a little correction ….
u could almost say a spankin
we got to big fir r britches

i lucked out in re last little while but most didnt

#13 Drunk Actuary on 01.28.16 at 5:47 pm

I pretty much agree with everything Garth posted today.

My only question is, how long can this market stay that irrational ? It’s been years since many people (all over the world) know that the Re valuations are unsustainable here, however year after year no significant correction occurs…

#14 Ashes Ashes we all fall down on 01.28.16 at 5:47 pm

Great map – see the long road where red meets green? That road, cunningly called Boundary Road, divides Vancouver from the city of Burnaby. % of SFHs over $2 million Vancouver city proper – definitely north of 91%

#15 Goober on 01.28.16 at 5:48 pm

Since there were many days and nights where this pathetic blog was filled with wailing and gnashing of teeth over the loss of our beloved $4500 TFSA contribution room, here’s something that we can all participate in to help restore the lost room. The federal government has an electronic petition site that allows citizens to easily participate in democratic reform. MP Peter Kent has put up a petition to try and get the Lieberals (sp?) to reverse their TFSA roll-back.

The minimum number of signatures required to have it certified and presented to the House of Commons is 500. While there is currently 4201 concerned citizens who have scratched their digital X, with the number of blog dogs that occupy this steerage section on a regular basis, I figure we could push that number to the top of the charts (presently 18605 signatures on a restricted firearms petition and 11041 signatures on a referendum for electoral system reform).

#16 JamesA on 01.28.16 at 5:49 pm

It is a shame. I used to live in Vancouver. Beautiful spot, both in the city and the outdoors. But, man the salaries are terrible there. When I moved to toronto my salary doubled (no joke) in the same field.

if your a technically sound individual you will be ok:

http://www.businessinsider.com/states-with-highest-tech-salaries-ranked-2016-1

not rich, but ok. Try to get a remote gig where you live in Canada (inexpensive place like Halifax, Calgary (after it blows off steam), or the BC interior) and work for the Americans (there are job sites for this (ask if you want to know)). You will be a king.

I am curious about what is going to happen to the exchange rate. Oil up helps it, insane debt hurts it (because they need to try to keep it low). Probably a wash. But if we go to big deficit territory and the States keeps steady maybe it can go down further.

#17 Ollie Fensom on 01.28.16 at 5:51 pm

When it doubt, buy preferred shares is what they say. And I did and I like having them. If you want to buy them at good prices you need to buy them when they are out of favor, same with everything else. Funny how the world works that way.

#18 maure on 01.28.16 at 5:56 pm

If marginal cost is more than political oil price to sustain current petrostates, then petrostates should effect a cartel agreement (within OPEC or not) to reduce oil price just below marginal cost.
If marginal cost is less than political oil price to sustain current petrostates (at least a few of them) then USA and new entrants to the oil business are in business, and can even try to put puppet governments in petrostates.

But either way, oil prices will not return to 100´s unless environmentalists steer public attention to satanize the oil industry (fracking, spills, global warming).

#19 TRT on 01.28.16 at 6:03 pm

DELETED (anti-Chinese)

#20 Frank on 01.28.16 at 6:03 pm

JamesA. Upwork?

Sucks in van right now. No rental or buying options. Finding housing is tough all around.

#21 S.Bby on 01.28.16 at 6:04 pm

#14 Ashes
The map is only of the City of Vancouver and that is Main Street, not Boundary Road.

#22 Ronaldo on 01.28.16 at 6:05 pm

The Nanaimo Daily News to close its doors. Last paper to be printed Friday after 147 years. Sign of the times.

#23 Nagraj on 01.28.16 at 6:07 pm

GT: ” . . . the entire region is going moronic”

On what is known as the Binet Scale, an IDIOT has an IQ 0-25, an IMBECILE 26-50, and a MORON 51-70. So, clearly, things in Vancouver could be worse.

More to the point though, as far as I know, in Canada it is a CRIME to have sex with a moron. (Perhaps the WUL could elaborate.)

Conclusion: do think twice before engaging in sexual relations with anyone from Vancouver. AND, presuming Dudley Doright does right, the birth rate in Vancouver should, by rights, drop to almost 0.

[Priscilla Lovelace in court: “Not guilty, your honour, because oh no no no, my Jack is NOT a moron, no, he’s just bleep stupid, you know, run-of-the-mill dumb.”]

#24 Thanks for nothing on 01.28.16 at 6:09 pm

Yeah Shawn looks like greed is really working for house lusty people now! NOT just because you bought a cheap house at the bottom of the last cycle for nothing has nothing to do with the insanity going on now! next thing you’ll be saying is butttt it’s different here… You are dellusuional!

#25 Monty on 01.28.16 at 6:10 pm

@JamesA. Please do tell the job sites ! Also, I live in interior BC and it is definitely NOT cheaper than say larger AB cities. Just as expensive, if not more than a Calgary or Edmonton. Thanks for the job sites in advance.

#26 not 1st on 01.28.16 at 6:16 pm

I shudder to think what people with mortgages and debt do when they’re called into a room and suddenly…”

Maybe someone should have explained to this genius that dividends can pay your mortgage.

And on top of that, homeowners are resilient. They dont pop up a sign and move to a moldy basement rental at the first signs of trouble. The people selling in alberta now were just carpet baggers anyway.

#27 Swanson on 01.28.16 at 6:17 pm

I heard this from a coworker the other day: “Chinese are buying up Vancouver houses because of the Yuan’s recent devaluation, and Canadian real estate is seen as a safe haven to park their money.”

Not that long ago, the very same people were saying “Chinese are buying up Vancouver houses because of the fallen Canadian dollar, and Canadian real estate seems cheap to them.”

I smiled at the absurdity, but kept my silence. As one of the rare real estate bears in Vancouver, I’m tired of arguing and prefer to not waste my breathe these days.

#28 Mike in Edm on 01.28.16 at 6:18 pm

#143 Shawn on 01.28.16 at 12:17 am
Mortgage Delinquencies Hidden

Latest stats show 90 day mortgage delinquencies in Alberta as of October still near record lows. Less than one in 350 delinquent 90 days.

Difference being that 20 years ago banks did not allow four month holiday from mortgage payments upon job loss. TD bank manager told me this is standard practice now.

Extend and pretend…

http://www.cba.ca/contents/files/statistics/stat_mortgage_db050_en.pdf
*******************************************

I had some friends in Calgary tell me the same thing when we visited in December. Sounds like it’s getting to be a well-known practice to curb mortgage payments for 3-4 months because the banks won’t even tap you on the wrist. Just one more way all those suckers are trying to hold on to their ever-so-important bricks and granite.

#29 Brazil ex-pat on 01.28.16 at 6:21 pm

There are going to be so many “I told you so’s” in the coming years it will be biblical.

#30 AB on 01.28.16 at 6:30 pm

Hope that the city council in Van is rapidly raising property taxes to max out this one time opportunity to update / improve the city’s infrastructure!!

#31 Jeff Gauld on 01.28.16 at 6:31 pm

Patrick still gotta make those rent payments Garth.

#32 Panhead on 01.28.16 at 6:33 pm

Was over in the big smoke (Van) yesterday visiting a long time bud. He told me of a place for sale and advised me to drive by on my way home and take a look. This area is zoned so that if you can get 4 homes to sell together – you can – then they can be made into something other that SFH. Most likley condo’s. The house in question sits right on Boundary Road (Van side.) This is a BUSY street. The house will be torn down with the others but is basically a shack on a 33 foot lot. 3.3 Mil as is. Incredible … Daffodills are about 8 inches high and the cherry trees are starting to bloom out here already in my burb …

#33 Mark on 01.28.16 at 6:40 pm

“I had some friends in Calgary tell me the same thing when we visited in December. Sounds like it’s getting to be a well-known practice to curb mortgage payments for 3-4 months because the banks won’t even tap you on the wrist.”

I have a friend in Calgary who hasn’t paid in 6. Going through a divorce and hasn’t received anything from the bank other than a single registered letter.

House is listed with a new Realtor and is now priced 20% beneath the note, and very little interest. 3-year old house too. So best case scenario is that he and his ex-wife will be shouldering a $120k debt at unsecured rates. He’s moved back into the house and has set up a swimming pool for his kid in the living room.

#34 604 and SoCal in same boat on 01.28.16 at 6:41 pm

We know you don’t like this website but their coverage is pretty broad.

What happens in SoCal .. will happen in Vancouver and beyond..

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-28/hsbc-halts-mortgage-options-chinese-nationals-buying-us-real-estate

Chinese trying to flip RE along the Westcoast in order to raise cash to pay back sour loans back in China.

Like the SoCal RE agent says “the prices are way too high for local buyers”

So, there you have it. All those multi million Dollar listings in Vancouver are a pipe dream!

Check MLS for SFH in Langley as well. Million Dollar listings everywhere.

Good luck dreamers in the GVRD trying to find enough suckers to buy those listings when the economy is in a tail spin!

#35 JG on 01.28.16 at 6:41 pm

CMHC would have us believe that the possibility of a Vancouver RE correction is only moderate. Are they trying to stave off panic? ..Kinda like keepin’ the dream alive?

They are much more bearish on Toronto. Hah? go figure.

#36 bdy sktrn on 01.28.16 at 6:47 pm

#5 Smartalox on 01.28.16 at 5:39 pm
Hmm. The way I read that map, the green are over $2M, the red are between $1M and $2M, and the blue are less than $1M. Interestingly, there are vast swaths of grey in the North East end of the city, that indicate data is unavailable – odd, given that assessment data should be universally available.

————————————
the biggest grey areas are pt grey, shaughnessy, southlands – 5-20m type hoods.

they did specify the zoning used – read carefully.

#37 joe on 01.28.16 at 6:48 pm

They are saying that Toronto is in the best shape right now…people have jobs….bla , bla , bla…

and only we are doomed in Alberta…

So you will flourish.. :)))

#38 Shawn on 01.28.16 at 6:49 pm

Let’s all work together (laugh out loud)

adel above said:

we in Canada have all the natural resources that many countries desire yet we cannot get it to the market due to our inability to act as a country as opposed to self interest idiocy,

|*****************************************

I have said before that those who think we are on some Team Canada are dreaming. That only works in cheering for sports teams and such.

When it comes to economics, it’s every man for himself.

Only you are responsible for you and your dependants. Don’t wait for team Canada to bail you out.

#39 Prairieboy43 on 01.28.16 at 6:51 pm

Discussing RE with a Jamaican friend. He and his family purchased a beautiful home 2 1/2 years ago. He works for and Agricultural Fertilizer Company. My Jamaican buddy, feels betrayed by Canada. His home is Devaluating. If he knew Oil was going to crash. He would not have moved to Canada. Also winters are difficult. I told him Jamaican Bobsled team succeeded here. So can you. Buyer Beware.

#40 Mark on 01.28.16 at 6:54 pm

“Obviously mortgage rates in Canada will be moving higher over the next 2 to 3 years and house prices in every major Canadian city will fall as a result.”

I wouldn’t be so sure that rates and house prices are as correlated as you think. To a degree, sure. But a prolonged period of low rates creates oversupply through over-stimulation, and down prices go. Independent of the low rates. We may very well have years, if not decades of similar-to-contemporary rates ahead of us (like Japan has), but falling housing prices simply on account of the industry being able to supply more housing than exists demand. Once fully supplied, just like any other commodity, the price of housing reverts to its cost of supply, ie: mostly the cost of the structure and the necessary improvements to the land, depreciated accordingly (land has no meaningful scarcity anywhere in Canada, so its long-run cost is negligible).

I smiled at the absurdity, but kept my silence. As one of the rare real estate bears in Vancouver, I’m tired of arguing and prefer to not waste my breathe these days.

People will say anything to rationalize an irrational position. Especially one with such severe consequences such as ownership of highly leveraged RE. I’ll just leave it at that, and concur that talking about RE with friends and family, unless in the context of giving solicited advice, is probably a non-starter for many of us. At least it is for me.

#41 acdel on 01.28.16 at 6:55 pm

#26 not 1st
Maybe someone should have explained to this genius that dividends can pay your mortgage.

And on top of that, homeowners are resilient. They dont pop up a sign and move to a moldy basement rental at the first signs of trouble. The people selling in alberta now were just carpet baggers anyway.
—————————————————————–

Couldn’t of said it better myself; now, if only the rest on the country (Toronto, Vancouver, South Quebec) could just understand what Westerners are all about. We do not want handouts, we just want a way to get our products to the markets and make a decent living with as little government interference as possible; we will adhere to reasonable rules that benefits all Canadians and pay our fair share but why choke us? The minority who do not get this, KMA’ss! The clock is ticking for this country to stay as one!

#42 Happy Daze on 01.28.16 at 7:00 pm

Oil UP ^

DOLLAR UP ^

TSX UP ^

CAULIFLOWER DOWN ($1.99)

HAPPY DAZE ARE HERE AGAIN !

#43 Lead Paint on 01.28.16 at 7:11 pm

Re: #1 Canadian Real Estate Update

First and on topic? Prey this is a new trend..

#44 Whinepegger on 01.28.16 at 7:17 pm

It’s different in Winterpeg: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/CMHC-says-Winnipeg-housing-market-conditions-have-improved-366736511.html

#45 B riding dirty on 01.28.16 at 7:22 pm

Maybe this year wil be the peak year, maybe not.

Who knows.

I now choose to just follow “the rule of 90”

I am jumping back into it with the herd!!

#46 The Wack on 01.28.16 at 7:25 pm

What is with the sadness of local small rags closing down? The only time I pick up a paper is sipping a coffee at McD’s! The papers pile up outside and get tossed in the blue box just in time for garbage day!

There’s something called the Internet and Craigslist for free to sell our used crap.

I have a Bro-in-law employed at Times Columnist just hanging on, as the older generation passes on so goes the way of paper news…

#47 Joe on 01.28.16 at 7:32 pm

You say the Liberals misjudged the economy or you mean Stephen Harper screwed it up so badly and lied about the shape of our finances?

#48 Courtney Hanson on 01.28.16 at 7:35 pm

I have been working since I was 18 years old and never had any debt. I am 27 years old and rent a modest place I can afford.

I have had many jobs and now have 3 part-time jobs and don’t need a car, uber, ride sharing works well and am still able to save $1,500 a month. Maxed out all my RRSP and TFSA contribution room with now $150,000 in them.

If I can’t pay cash or without debt I don’t buy it. It is that simple.

Debt is for losers and people who don’t actually earn their money. I look at it this way, if the job market and real estate market is tougher then why should I be any less.

#49 Joe on 01.28.16 at 7:37 pm

You are so full of it when you say 95 percent of real estate transactions in Vancouver are local. How is this possible when the avg incone is something like 75k?

Debt. — Garth

#50 acdel on 01.28.16 at 7:41 pm

#38 Shawn
Let’s all work together (laugh out loud)

adel above said:

we in Canada have all the natural resources that many countries desire yet we cannot get it to the market due to our inability to act as a country as opposed to self interest idiocy,

|*****************************************

I have said before that those who think we are on some Team Canada are dreaming. That only works in cheering for sports teams and such.

When it comes to economics, it’s every man for himself.

Only you are responsible for you and your dependants. Don’t wait for team Canada to bail you out.

—————————————————————–
Yeah, you’re probably right but I hope for a better outcome! I know, I am delusional, great future for our kids, grandkids, right?

#51 waiting on the westcoast on 01.28.16 at 7:48 pm

#31 Jeff Gauld on 01.28.16 at 6:31 pm says “Patrick still gotta make those rent payments Garth.”

But Patrick is probably making smaller payments as rent than mortgage/prop tax/maintenance would be. And Patrick has liquid capital throwing off dividends towards rent payments. Worst (or best, depending where he is at that moment) case, the core monies are available to be used to pay living expenses once he has depleted regular savings, UI, etc.

#52 LL on 01.28.16 at 7:49 pm

Those prices means that Vancouver town should receive a huge amount in properties tax!

More it’s over evaluated, more the properties tax can go high…

#53 LL on 01.28.16 at 7:55 pm

# 8 – With the value of the real estate in Vancouver, the city council should have no problem raising money through the elevated tax base now offered to them with new assessed values.

Like increasing their salaries!

#54 JamesA on 01.28.16 at 7:59 pm

#20, #25

I have had luck with:

weworkremotely dot com

and:

hired dot com

(Garth I don’t work for those people, honest. Just trying to help somebody get a job)

Just have an impressive project(s) or code contributions on github to get their attention. Nobody believes a buzz word laden resume anymore. Show some code.

Yeah, the BC interior has some beautiful (and pricey) places by the lakes. My point is that Canada is huge and there some lovely places outside the major centers. I find small town Ontario with all the red brick buildings quite nice. The east coast is beautiful (but please please don’t move there. I don’t want you “from away” ba$*#rds wrecking my retirement home with your fancy pants ways ;) ).

That type of remote work is one of the upsides to being a programmer (or whatever).

#55 jaybee on 01.28.16 at 8:01 pm

I bought Cauliflower for .97 cents each today here in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia. Broccoli too actually.

Garth, come on now. Group orgies? Blowing up and spraying everyone? I feel like I need a shower!

#56 jaybee on 01.28.16 at 8:06 pm

I feel like I have to post my obligatory “Mark is an uninformed douche who, doesn’t know what he’s talking about post.”

I bet Garth doesn’t disagree.

#57 m on 01.28.16 at 8:09 pm

posted by Mark #40

“People will say anything to rationalize an irrational position. Especially one with such severe consequences such as ownership of highly leveraged RE. I’ll just leave it at that, and concur that talking about RE with friends and family, unless in the context of giving solicited advice, is probably a non-starter for many of us. At least it is for me. ”

So talking about RE is a no go with family and friends. Is that why you blabber on so much here, about subprime garbage, statistical mirages and the ever challenged sales mix! Or may be your family and friends banned you :).

#58 Retired Boomer WI on 01.28.16 at 8:10 pm

Ah back from my 2 day once a year “consulting gig.” Just enough work to keep the ol’ brain box occupied, but not enough to be habit forming, like hookers & blow.

Yes, well the measure of panic will be after owners out of work, exhaust all unemployment, and after 4 months of nonpayment. Then we can see who has been swimming in the buff.

As to whether economies are in recession, or not. /looks as if a lot of the world is having a crap season, and US orders are reflecting that status. Despite the “Happy Talk” I watch car loadings, truck loadings, volume and exports. Not thrilled by those stats.

Do what your gut tells you, mine says hold cash, buy durables on the cheap.

#59 lala on 01.28.16 at 8:13 pm

Poor Bombardier, delisted from TSE soon.

#60 Bram on 01.28.16 at 8:13 pm

#14 Ashes Ashes we all fall down on 01.28.16 at 5:47 pm see the long road where red meets green? That road, cunningly called Boundary Road, divides Vancouver from the city of Burnaby. – See more at: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/28/shudders/#sthash.TsfM92bQ.dpuf

Nope, that is Ontario st. It divides East Van and Vancouver West side.

Bram

#61 Chris on 01.28.16 at 8:13 pm

Two comments:

1. What in the world is happening to stock prices? I am finding company after company, in which the price to book value is ridiculously low when compared to the earnings per share. Why are people giving away their stocks?

2. Toronto’s “million dollar housing market” is a figment of the newspaper writers’ imagination. Recently entered the market purchasing a detached house for $329,000 and a semi for $279,000. Having a look at MLS once again, finding more deals, including a big detached on a huge lot for $379,000.00. I am buying properties a 15 minute walk from “The Junction”.

That’s all, enjoy the rest of your day

#62 LL on 01.28.16 at 8:14 pm

#13 – I pretty much agree with everything Garth posted today. My only question is, how long can this market stay that irrational ? It’s been years since many people (all over the world) know that the Re valuations are unsustainable here, however year after year no significant correction occurs… –

And I am surprise there is not much foreclosure!
That crazy RE market is a mistery…

Maybe Garth can explain how come this market is still alive…….and there is any significant correction yet.

Ca me depasse!

#63 Bram on 01.28.16 at 8:20 pm

#21 S.Bby on 01.28.16 at 6:04 pm
The map is only of the City of Vancouver and that is Main Street, not Boundary Road. – See more at: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/28/shudders/#sthash.tun616xd.dpuf

Ontario st.
That is the street that splits the ‘Avenues’ so that two EXACT SAME HOUSES on either side will differ $1M just for having the ‘W’ in the address, and not an ‘E’.

(Also less garbage in streets, and people mow their lawns in W, as opposed to those in E)

#64 LL on 01.28.16 at 8:21 pm

…And while people are quick to say it’s all the fault of offshore buyers, the fact remains that 95% of all trades are local-to-local…

Local-to-local? Just drive, walk, eat in Richmond.
Even menus are written in Chinese.
What about the airport? Most employees are Chinese.
Local-to-local? Not so sure…

People of Asian background get to live there, too. Ignorant comment. — Garth

#65 pwn3d on 01.28.16 at 8:24 pm

“a cultural and financial predisposition to home ownership versus renting”

now there’s a PC way of saying HAM.

Prices in Toronto are out of control right now. This is going to be another fantastic spring market. I will be selling some RE this spring, can’t wait.

Happy to have bought a lot of XTR last week at 9.89, just before the ex-dividend date to boot. Up to 10.29 for a 4% gain in a week. But not happy to see they dropped the dividend to 5 cents when it had been 6 cents for ages. Whats up with that.

#66 Shudders - Realties.ca on 01.28.16 at 8:32 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/28/shudders/ […]

#67 hope & ruin on 01.28.16 at 8:35 pm

#7 maure on 01.28.16 at 5:42 pm
Oil industry:
-major reserve countries with cheap oil (e.g. Saudis, Iran, Iraq) will not sell 20-30 dollar oil for a long time.
_______________________________________

When O&G prices rebound, will the threat of Saudi’s increasing production at will, act as a deterrent for companies looking to invest in higher cost regions?

As in, the Saudi’s can turn on the taps whenever they want, so companies won’t invest as much in places like the oil sands? Because at any moment their investments could take a beating?

Just a general question for anyone with some expertise. or Mark.

#68 Market Man on 01.28.16 at 8:36 pm

Layoffs continue for the banks and telcos
Forget interest – lack of job growth

Rogers will raising their fees 10% and will blame on the low CAD

#69 Berniebee on 01.28.16 at 8:40 pm

#26 “Maybe someone should have explained to this genius that dividends can pay your mortgage. ”

Maybe someone should explain to you that because of outrageous house prices, BC’ers have the lowest average savings rate of all Canadians. (I believe it’s actually negative!)
No savings, no investments, no dividends.

#70 TEMPLE on 01.28.16 at 8:41 pm

So it was probably a dumb time to pare middle-class taxes and tell voters that soaking higher-income earners would make up for it

Seems to me like any time is a good time for a bit more equality. Besides, tax cuts as we nosedive into a recession is right from the Economics 101 playbook. The Other Guys did it in a big way when we were sharpening our squirrel forks and I didn’t hear you complaining about it. Because they were flying the same flag, I think?

Another $1.4 billion in the red.

You forgot to add, “to pay the bills Harper ran up.”

Morneau says, begging the question of why Canadians were promised a tax cut, more special spending, a balanced budget in four years and lots of sunshine.

Really, Garth? I didn’t hear you complaining when The Other Guys were lying about exactly the same thing. And, really lying, too, rather than T2’s more excusable crime of simply being unaware of how bad of a mess Harper had made.

TEMPLE

#71 common sense on 01.28.16 at 8:43 pm

#48 Courtney

Great job! Keep it up!

#72 Mark on 01.28.16 at 8:46 pm

“Why are people giving away their stocks? “

Because other aspects of their portfolio, involving leverage, in distress. For example, in Canada, RE pretty much nationwide is now entering into its 3rd year of decline. Credit terms are tightening up. Its a lot easier for “Joe Sixpack” the most liquid stuff first, including the much hated stocks, than it is to sell RE.

Then there’s people who subscribe to the school of thought that things will play out similar to 2009, with RE being a relative harbour of stability. But this time around, the CMHC can’t juice the market. Nor can the BoC. They’re basically out of ammo. It is very likely this time around that the stock market, not the housing market, will lead the recovery. The deep cyclicals could post some especially spectacular returns.

Heck, if you look at the TSX in 2009 and compare it to today, we’ve already hit the 2009 bottoms again adjusted for retained earnings. It only took a year or two to be within spitting distance of the all time highs, and this time around, starting from a much higher base, the recovery could easily put the TSX into the 20k+ range.

#73 fishman on 01.28.16 at 8:47 pm

The reason for the grey is most of that area is condos, rentals & apartments, that kind of higher density stuff. Any SFH in there is big money.

I believe that a pullback of up to 40% of Van R/E won’t affect the banks or CMHC much. They are lending on ability to service the loan. Around (32% for mortgage & 40% for total debt) to gross income. Sure the big guys get financing on equity from the banks, but “big guy takes the pot”
The weakness will be the private mortgage brokers & MICS (Mortgage Investment Corporations). Their taking 2nd’s on say 50%-70% of assessed value at 8%-10% with a 2% fee for two years. The cowboys are going for 2nd’s & 3rd’s above 65% of assessed & > 12% plus fees. Both don’t even try to qualify on loan serviceability, figuring on getting their money out of equity. This play has worked out very well on a rising market so far. I do know some private guys are a little bit nervous, still in, but spreading risk. Say, going for three $300,000 placements instead of one $900,000.

How much is out there on Vancouver R/E derivatives? Lots, lots & lots of liquidity meets Vancouver Players who can’t stop playing in a city where money evaporates as you enter. I know of an investment adviser at a big five bank who supplemented his income by 2 million over eighteen years with his west side ATM. Whistler,Maui, Vegas,women, restaurants, barbecues by the pool,fine wine: & no regrets. There are thousands like him in this city; divorces, business, stock plays, kids,laid off; the demand for cash from the west side ATM is infinite. And believe you me, this is a fun city if you got money. No money, no honey.

If or when the music stops the 2nd & 3rd guys will start action to get the place on the market as soon as possible, as not to lose their equity in a falling market. The banks & CMHC not so panicky as their 1st in line. An owner can stop paying, except for his R/E lawyer, & hang up the property for a year. The greedy little fellows at the back of the line will be paying the costs & sucking up the Pepto Bismo.

I’ll let you blog dogs know if I start to see any cracks, here in Van west side R/E land, but for now its party on, party hard!

#74 piccaso on 01.28.16 at 8:55 pm

T2’s cash grab plan

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/government-revenues-legal-pot-could-reach-5b-bank-155951317.html

#75 observer on 01.28.16 at 8:55 pm

I look for co-relation. The Canadian interest rates went down and housing prices went up

At the same time the Chinese borrowing and US borrow stayed the same and marginally went up.
If you were in China and needed to borrow to invest in HongCouver. You would be borrowing in a US or China Bank not Canadian.

So, garth statement makes more sense than the people saying it all foriegners. But at the same time Both China and Canadian dollar went lower against the greenback .

#76 IHCTD9 on 01.28.16 at 8:57 pm

Ahh, 2016, it’s now closer than ever. Bad news in the Steel industry, Oil industry, all mining of any kind, all commodities of any type, Auto industry doing good – as long as we’re not talking about Ontario auto jobs. Trudeau can’t wait to flush another Billion, while public sector Unions have never felt so empowered.

Jobs in Private sector Ontario continue to evaporate, private sector Union membership still dropping. What’s left of big industry is holding all the cards.

The final stop on this line will be Toronto housing prices. The only reason the GTA got to be what it is today, is its industrial might, and the jobs that go along with it.

I spoke again today with my delightful but generally oblivious steel supplier sales rep who just came back to Canada from Korea after Christmas holidays. She seemed quite a bit more informed about what is happening in Ontario this time around. Impressive for a millennial immigrant (in my experience). She provided some interesting anecdotes from her side of the business – it’s just not good news dogs, she probably understood less regarding the implications of what she was saying than did I.

While Wynne worries about providing genderless government forms for all Ontarians, the heart of this Province is being cleaved from its chest, slice by slice. All I, and millions of others in private sector Ontario can do is watch in disbelief.

I mentioned a certain die-hard Liberal partisan I know a while back – a business owner. This individual has not yet cursed the Libs – but I can see the strain building. Complaints have been voiced, but some tap dancing has also occurred. “Hope mode”, I call it. Hoping that what looks to be happening, isn’t actually happening. More time is needed, but when the cursing starts, then I know pretty much every Lib in the province with something to lose is in the same mindset…

#77 Berniebee on 01.28.16 at 8:58 pm

#41 acdel ” we just want a way to get our products to the markets and make a decent living with as little government interference as possible”

Eyeroll. At $30 a barrel, the tar will stay in the sands. No pipeline is needed. And if oil stays this low much longer, you’ll be thankful for equalization payments.

#78 Big Dipper on 01.28.16 at 8:59 pm

#199 Smoking Man on 01.27.16 at 2:56 pm

” Educate yourself we need to drop this girly man shit right now, who will be left to defend woman when this shit starts to make it’s way here.

Europe has been feminized, no men left in the streets of Germany to beat the living shit out of those migrant rapists.

Can you imagine what would happen to those migrants had they tried to rape woman in Glasgow or Belgrad.

Men burn your pink shirts become men again, and get ready to defend

—————————————————

Very articulate, smoking turd. You do realize, you ignorant dipstick, that you just repeated the ideology and beliefs of radical Islam?

Muslim attitudes are based on protecting “their” women. Western men are seen as weak and effeminate for letting their women out of sight, scantily clad (except Cdn women in January), and unaccompanied by male family protectors.

Female control is critical in Islamic society. Women are identified as “lewd” in the Koran. Single women wondering the streets are therefore seen as fair game.

Meanwhile, I’ll still see you in the tar sands in February. The mining process is called Truck and Shovel. You’ll be the shovel, I’ll drive the truck. First honest work you’ve done in your life. Enjoy!

Gotta change my pink shirt now….

#79 conan on 01.28.16 at 9:01 pm

“the Libs so misjudged the health of the economy”
No way the Libs had access to the same data that Harper had.
Harper lied about the economic numbers. They were miserable.

The PBO had reasonably accurate numbers, accessible to all. — Garth

#80 observer on 01.28.16 at 9:01 pm

In Case you haven’t visited China recently, its getting tough to get back and forth.

They ask for many documents and search you pretty extensively to ensure your not laundering $$$ out. We just came back just short of a full body cavity search.And my wife and I Canadian with Chinese descent..

I hear stories from other Chinese traveling in and out of china

#81 acdel on 01.28.16 at 9:04 pm

#54 JamesA

Great links, thanks.

#82 Doomsday Preppar on 01.28.16 at 9:05 pm

Courtney Hanson, will you marry me?

#83 tundra pete on 01.28.16 at 9:10 pm

It’s a lot like flying a 747 or big jet. You don’t make a change and expect a result instantly. Nope it takes a while.

The oil patch crew is going through this right now. Most of the laid off are not feeling it yet. The pogey is still rolling in, beers are cold, life is good. Once we get another 6 to 8 months down the road, reality will rear it ugly face. For a lot it won’t be pretty.

However, if you invest in a diversified portfolio, drink gallon bottles of scotch and read a pathetic blog, life will be great.

#84 BG on 01.28.16 at 9:12 pm

Sometimes I wonder if the world has always been so hopeless and I didn’t realize it before, or if it is just objectively getting worse.

This refugees crisis in Europe is particularly concerning for the western way of life.

#85 acdel on 01.28.16 at 9:12 pm

#77 Berniebee
#41 acdel ” we just want a way to get our products to the markets and make a decent living with as little government interference as possible”

Eyeroll. At $30 a barrel, the tar will stay in the sands. No pipeline is needed. And if oil stays this low much longer, you’ll be thankful for equalization payments.
—————————————————————–

If you really believe that oil will stay at these prices then; eye roll by me; let us sell our product; what are you afraid of?? By the way, I am investing long in oil..

#86 jas on 01.28.16 at 9:14 pm

Hi Garth:
My son, in Toronto keeps pushing me to buy in Kitchner…
http://www.thespec.com/news-story/6250586-condo-buying-frenzy-in-waterloo-as-google-moves-in/

What do I tell him to ware up to reality.

#87 Leo Trollstoy on 01.28.16 at 9:16 pm

hard to find tech talent. cad is crap. why get paid in crap?

http://ca.reuters.com/article/idCAKCN0V62XM

#88 prairiegopher on 01.28.16 at 9:16 pm

Bye Bye Juthtin, oh and on your way out take Nutley with you!

#89 Smoking Man on 01.28.16 at 9:20 pm

Coming out of the closet.

Starting to understand who I am and what my mission in life is. Finally, it hits me!!!,

The UCC delivers. For the people who have been around on Greater fool many years they can validate that my market calls have been ridiculously 98%. (Here comes the Bombardier and yellow pages’ chirps) Newbies like James calls me a Turd, fool whatever, so did may others who are now fans and friends.

I’m trying to write a comical fiction story about earthlings from the prospective of drunken Aliens sent here fifty years ago to study them. And make sure they never develop technology for intergalactic space travel. Humans being far to primitive to intermingle with all the life forms out there.

Yet it’s been three years, I’m still on chapter six, I’ve written enough on Greater Fool to for an entire encyclopedia in that time frame. So doing the work, typing is not the issue.

I consciously sit down everyday to try and hammer out words for my master piece but my fingers are not in my control when it comes to that book, they will not open the word doc no matter how much I swear at them.

I’m under Alien Control, ever since the UFO hovered over my house that May 3 or 4 years ago.

Universal Shrinkage will be proven in two years.

Up until today I just through my hands in the air, say to myself, you are a certified nut job, completely over the rainbow.

And then I came across this.
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread960046/pg1
and this
https://teslauniverse.com/nikola-tesla/articles/world-speaks-world-mysterious-signals-through-vast-space-tesla-electrician
and this
http://ufodigest.com/article/mystical-legacy-nikola-tesla-martian-or-time-traveler

On the last link pay attention to who his parents were.

I wrote this years ago before I knew any of this.

http://dyslexicsmokingman.blogspot.ca/2016/01/bit-of-chapter-4.html

The UCC bitches. You all have a connection, you just don’t use it.

#90 Lulu on 01.28.16 at 9:20 pm

Next is generation mortgage like Japan back in the 80-90’s when their home price is so high that one generation is not able to pay it off and it has to pass it on to their next generation and lots of Japanese are still suffering from that.

Government of Canada won’t/can/t let the housing fall/collapse, is just too big to fail. Liberal will do ANYTHING to sustain it and everyone knows about it!

#91 BG on 01.28.16 at 9:21 pm

“Europe has been feminized, no men left in the streets of Germany to beat the living shit out of those migrant rapists.”

—————————————————

Whoever said that is delusional.
Feminism hit and castrated Canada (and probably USA) way more than Europe.

#92 Mark on 01.28.16 at 9:25 pm

“I believe that a pullback of up to 40% of Van R/E won’t affect the banks or CMHC much. They are lending on ability to service the loan.”

Equity is always the chief predictor of mortgage performance. Not personal income, ratios, etc. Having said that, just what do you think happens to the personal incomes in economies where 25%+ of the GDP is dependant on RE activity, when RE prices go down significantly? Those incomes suffer significantly as well.

CMHC has a paltry capital cushion of roughly $20B to cover off guarantees related to mortgages in excess of $900B (there was even a poster who calculated such even higher in excess of $1.4T — he might be able to chime in). With that sort of effective leverage, only few loans have to go bad for the whole thing to blow up. I know, CMHC will claim actuarial adequacy for their subprime mortgage “insurance” scheme, but their actuarial analysis clearly does not account for correlated or systemic risks to the Canadian housing market.

“They ask for many documents and search you pretty extensively to ensure your not laundering $$$ out. “

Of course. And Canada is increasingly concerned about people laundering money out of Canada. Friend flew to Shanghai the other day through Vancouver — customs agents were doing plenty of exit checks, as there is a significant need of cash in China right now, and it is quite possible that Canadian RE is being leveraged or sold for those purposes, to prop up failing businesses elsewhere.

#93 salonist on 01.28.16 at 9:29 pm

tending to his flock
a little scotch,fender over the shoulder, 70″ monitor

Who da man? You da man. Who Da Man?! You Da Man! WHO DA MAN!?!?!? YOU DA MAN!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mKggAwT-YQ

#94 Leo Trollstoy on 01.28.16 at 9:30 pm

The PBO had reasonably accurate numbers, accessible to all. — Garth

i bet that made yer bias stronger didn’t it? yes it did

#95 Mark on 01.28.16 at 9:34 pm

“hard to find tech talent.”

Not hard at all. Firms just need to pick up the phone and start hiring people. Most tech jobs, minimally advertised, are drawing dozens, sometimes hundreds of applicants. Even very good people don’t get the “courtesy of a response”.

Companies that can’t find good people in Canada have only themselves to blame. Either for not conducting a good faith search effort, for not wanting to pay adequately, or for not building a longer-term talent pipeline in their organizations by hiring people at the entry-level and allowing them to develop. Institutional intransigence is a big problem in many parts of the economy as well — for instance, the RCMP wanted to hire computer experts a while back, but insisted that they go through the Regina-based “basic Officer training” (a very physically demanding course). Only to wonder why they received very few good applicants.

#96 not 1st on 01.28.16 at 9:43 pm

#65 pwn3d on 01.28.16 at 8:24 pm

Happy to have bought a lot of XTR last week at 9.89, just before the ex-dividend date to boot. Up to 10.29 for a 4% gain in a week. But not happy to see they dropped the dividend to 5 cents when it had been 6 cents for ages. Whats up with that.

I guess you didn’t notice that XTR is filled with high yield junk bonds and that market is crashing. Be happy they only trimmed a penny from the distribution.

#97 Hicksville Alberta on 01.28.16 at 9:50 pm

” Just look what cheap rates, house lust and popular delusions have done to a once-liveable city.”

Right on with that one Garth but i think it now goes well beyond price now for so many cities. So much crime, micro managing by bureaucracy, declining wealth and opportunity, growing lack of real community etc. that there really ain’t that many real liveable cities left in this country any more.

And if things really do get whacked by people such as Nothead, Wynne and the New Federal Libs, i hate to think how ugly being Canadian might get.

#98 IHCTD9 on 01.28.16 at 9:50 pm

#79 conan on 01.28.16 at 9:01 pm

Harper lied about the economic numbers. They were miserable
—————————

Harper left a 941 million deficit at the time of his removal from office. That’s right from the DOF update in Dec on the Liberals watch.

Yeah, 941 million is a big miserable deficit, I agree.

What would you call a 17 BILLION deficit?

You know, just for the record…

#99 Smoking Man on 01.28.16 at 9:52 pm

I really must be under their control.

Nectonites.

I see it clear as day. The planet, the people the culture.

I look back at my life on earth, it’s incredible. Barely passed high school, owned business, sold them retired, got board went back to work.

I’ve worked in Fixed Income, Swaps desk code smith for several Canadian and USA banks and hedge funds.

All my desks make fortunes after I build pricers and tools.

To this day, If you asked me to explain a Swap, I have know idea on how the business works or logic. But my boys want me back, The two top IT managers who let me go got broomed. and I sincerely feel bad about that.

Being a cut throat, get my cottage in muskoka at all costs is not me.

I just type code and it works.

I’ve made millions and millions trading, with no training.

I live in a little shit bungalow that needs a set of vise grips to turn on the shower.

I’m here for a reason.

When the Nectointe’s feel like it, my book will be finished and so will I.

Historians will be combing the greater fool archives and will say to themselves.

Holy Shit Wow…..

Depending if you’re a liberal a Neocon of a libertarian, The holy shit will have a different meaning for each camp.

#100 Leo Trollstoy on 01.28.16 at 9:55 pm

if sum1 can’t find work as a tech wage slave in low cad environment they have low bar 4 life skills lol

http://ca.reuters.com/article/idCAKCN0V62XM

#101 Water Cat on 01.28.16 at 9:57 pm

Now for something on the lighter side.

Traders were caught in a short squeeze betting that Oprah put on weight. I think somebody turned the scale back a few pounds. She made the claim without witnesses. I want an official weigh in with Don King by her side. Oprah was seen celebrating her victory at a famous all you can eat Chinese Buffet in Rodeo Drive.

Weight Watchers International Inc. shares rose as much as 22 percent after investor and spokeswoman Oprah Winfrey said she’s lost more weight using the program.

I guess the moral of the story is getting rid of Water Retention is the way to go.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/weight-watchers-stock-jumps-after-oprah-says-he-s-lost-26-pounds

#102 YVR "stats" are a joke! on 01.28.16 at 10:01 pm

“the fact remains that 95% of all trades are local-to-local.”

That is NOT a fact. The only way local-to-local can make sense is if you include all the Chinese money launderers that Krusty Clark allowed to buy their way into BC as residents. Criminal $ that she let walk right in and destroy the culture of our city. Want a real study? Last week I asked 7 different lower mainland realtors who purchased their last 2 home sales. Us locals know the answer to that but Garth still thinks we’re fools. That’s a good enough study for me.

You need to see it to believe it Garth and you aren’t living through what us west coasters are living through. Don’t bother trying to convince me otherwise. (But thanks for the financial advice)

#103 AB Boxster on 01.28.16 at 10:01 pm

#70 TEMPLE on 01.28.16 at 8:41 pm

Don’t be hard on yourself about being so wrong about the numbers.

Math is hard.

#104 Frank on 01.28.16 at 10:02 pm

You are so full of it when you say 95 percent of real estate transactions in Vancouver are local. How is this possible when the avg incone is something like 75k?

Debt. — Garth

Our household is over twice that average and the bank would only lend up $1M. So how is the average house selling for $1.6M with the average income of $75K? Even with subprime lenders no one is lending that amount.

#105 WUL on 01.28.16 at 10:07 pm

NAGRAJ:

I will respond to your question about the Criminal Code on Saturday when tolerance for off topic comments is relaxed.

MILLMECH, SWL1976, PANHEAD and other skilled tradespeople:

The kid is winding his way through his first year apprenticeship twisting wrenches. The process, procedures, steps to be taken, registration and info to be filed here in Alberta is utterly incomprehensible. Of course, he is at work all day with no access to a computer. That really does not matter as the website is more pathetic than this blog. Using the phone to make inquiries is a dead end. As a result, the Missus has to go to the office of the Alberta Apprenticeship Board twice a week to figure it out for him. (and we are Helicopter Parents).

Was that your experience? For crying out loud!! Should it not be simple?

Earning a law degree is simpler.

Unfortunately, the shop has gone bankrupt and tomorrow is his last day of work. Life can be full of setbacks and there may be some benefit in his getting his first punch in the mush early in life.

#106 Julie K. on 01.28.16 at 10:11 pm

Sweet!

Now we know where to go scoop a bargain SFH this weekend.

Thanks Mr. Yan!

#107 Shirley valentine on 01.28.16 at 10:16 pm

#98 Smoking Man on 01.28.16 at 9:52 pm
I really must be under their control.

Nectonites.

I see it clear as day. The planet, the people the culture.

I look back at my life on earth, it’s incredible. Barely passed high school, owned business, sold them retired, got board went back to work.

I’ve worked in Fixed Income, Swaps desk code smith for several Canadian and USA banks and hedge funds.

All my desks make fortunes after I build pricers and tools.

To this day, If you asked me to explain a Swap, I have know idea on how the business works or logic. But my boys want me back, The two top IT managers who let me go got broomed. and I sincerely feel bad about that.

Being a cut throat, get my cottage in muskoka at all costs is not me.

I just type code and it works.

I’ve made millions and millions trading, with no training.

I live in a little shit bungalow that needs a set of vise grips to turn on the shower.

I’m here for a reason.

When the Nectointe’s feel like it, my book will be finished and so will I.

Historians will be combing the greater fool archives and will say to themselves.

Holy Shit Wow…..

Depending if you’re a liberal a Neocon of a libertarian, The holy shit will have a different meaning for each camp.

AND you are a studly beast of an alien – who knows what women want. A smokey man. When’s the book out?

#108 Bottoms_Up on 01.28.16 at 10:20 pm

#97 IHCTD9 on 01.28.16 at 9:50
—————————————
And how do you explain the $140 billion in deficits under Harper between 2010-2013?

http://vf.to/dlCLdgR1T02

#109 Trojan House on 01.28.16 at 10:26 pm

I was called the other day by the parliamentary assistant for the Ontario Ministry of Finance to participate in a live budget townhall by phone. The objective was to receive feedback from regular citizens on the upcoming budget. I called back to say I would participate.

It was supposed to start at 7 pm tonight. They called me tonight at 7:40 pm to say that they were sorry to for not calling me at 7.

#110 Mark on 01.28.16 at 10:28 pm

“Our household is over twice that average and the bank would only lend up $1M. So how is the average house selling for $1.6M with the average income of $75K? Even with subprime lenders no one is lending that amount. – “

Obviously the average person isn’t buying a Vancouver SFH. Vancouver has some of the lowest ownership rates in the country. And the market is being driven almost entirely by ‘move-up’ buyers who have substantial home equity accumulated already through existing ownership. People who have seen their houses triple over the past 15 years, and are rolling their equity from their existing housing (whether it be a lower-quality SFH, a condo or two, etc.) into their new housing.

So long as they pass the test of significant equity, the bank writes the loan. Income isn’t even all that important when it comes to the mortgage underwriting process.

However, doubling down on RE at its peak (or just slightly under, as YVR prices have been on the decline for a few years), justifying it in the context of all the gains they’ve made previously, when there are other asset classes that are dirt cheap (and in some cases, are literally dirt!) and are significantly correlated to the real local economy, is probably a recipe for significant losses. If not huge opportunity costs.

#111 Bottoms_Up on 01.28.16 at 10:34 pm

#70 TEMPLE on 01.28.16 at 8:41 pm
—————————-
Occasionally Garth likes to leave out inconvenient truths such as the salary income splitting (which gave money to lots of rich families) that the conservatives introduced, as well as significant reductions in business tax rates, that could be seen as removing miney from government coffers. But when it comes to mild tax increases on the rich (and lower taxes on the middle class) he’s all over it like it’s a crime to humanity.

Income-splitting was a benefit to single-income families. Wealthy people certainly did not need it, nor benefit from it. As for business taxes, the higher they are, the less capital is invested and the fewer new jobs for guys like you. — Garth

#112 Drill Baby Drill on 01.28.16 at 10:35 pm

Attention
Smoking Man and Shirley Valentine Please get a motel room.

#113 bdy sktn on 01.28.16 at 10:48 pm

BOC goes negative

#114 bdy sktn on 01.28.16 at 10:50 pm

BOJ

#115 Smoking Man on 01.28.16 at 10:55 pm

Tesla also relates a sort of sad story from his boyhood. He was playing in the street with some neighborhood boys when one of the town’s aldermen passed by. The alderman stopped to give each of Tesla’s playmates a small silver coin, but when he looked in young Nikola’s eyes, he said, “Nothing for you. You’re too smart.”

This would become a pattern for Tesla’s adulthood. He never married or had a romantic relationship with any female and never formed any close bond of friendship with a man. Margaret Storm calls it “aloneness,” as opposed to “loneliness.”
…..

Poor dude, like freedom first. Never met a chic that can cook

#116 Garth M on 01.28.16 at 11:05 pm

-YVR is a time bomb with the potential to blow up and spray everyone

Nice.

#117 Shirley valentines Younger Sister on 01.28.16 at 11:05 pm

Nectonite men turn me on Smoking Man. Show us your plasma flyer and Shirley and I will do a three way with you at Senica this weekend. If you want make it kinky invite your wife too.

#118 common sense on 01.28.16 at 11:09 pm

Well well well

Japan to introduce negative interest rates…

Who’s next?

Worry? Never…

#119 WUL on 01.28.16 at 11:15 pm

In response to my own comment at #104, maybe, just maybe, I am a whiner. Garth should be a “Whiner Nazi”.

“DELETED (No whining for you!!)”

#120 Scotrand on 01.28.16 at 11:22 pm

Bravo Patrick. Common sense, espoused by El Gartho… Bummer about the job, but whatever, its just a job. Be creative and motivated and all will be good.

#121 DON on 01.28.16 at 11:28 pm

11 acdel on 01.28.16 at 5:46 pm

I read a blog today on a different post (sorry Garth, yours is still the best) that a Canadian couple spent six months in Asia. They were asked on numerous occasions on what is wrong with Canada, we in Canada have all the natural resources that many countries desire yet we cannot get it to the market due to our inability to act as a country as opposed to self interest idiocy, they are dumbfounded. The couple mentioned that all of them said that they would not invest in Canada minus RE until we wise up! No, not making this up..
________________________

Not sure if extra pipelines with help as OPEC has new competition in town. What we could do is refined our natural resources. Still amazes me that we ship our raw resources out, timber, rock, tar, wheat…very little secondary or tertiary manufacturing. Where’s assistance to diversify and support innovation. Not asking for communism or capitalism just something practical, that makes sense, and provides quality and throw in some degree of sustainability as well.

And can we stop letting the former dictator off the hook – since his gang created this mess. When the crisis hit – Canada was used as a model to beat. We just came to the party late and now the lights are on in the bar….Yikes! what was I thinking.

#122 Sheep on 01.28.16 at 11:28 pm

@Mark

Banks have data for YVR that show that there are barely any mortgages over $1 Million. Yet many houses are over $2 million. They refuse to make that data public. Wonder why? Yes, its debt that is causing runaway prices. I have a bridge to sell…

#123 Sheep on 01.28.16 at 11:31 pm

Bank of Japan latest to have Negative Rates. Say they will drop them more if needed.

Looks like they will come to Canada.

#124 common sense on 01.28.16 at 11:33 pm

Turn out the lights the party is over……

QE4 here we come……………………

S.O.S.

#125 For those about to flop... on 01.28.16 at 11:41 pm

Mark @ 109 wrote this piece of garbage

However, doubling down on RE at its peak (or just slightly under, as YVR prices have been on the decline for a few years)

///////////////////////////////////
I have taken the last week or so off commenting on this blog.
I just want you to know that you are the biggest dickhead I have NEVER met.
You are a disgrace to your profession and I am ashamed to say I hang out on the same blog as a putz like you.
You spoil this blog for everyone with your self conceited horseshit, don’t even bother responding to this ,hang your head in shame.
If you put as much time and effort into your career ,as you do into spewing lies on this blog then the Metrosexual Messiah would not be prime minister as it would be you,but your to busy licking your mirror and touching yourself whilst reading your posts.
Garth is the moderator ,not you .Piss off and get you own blog and leave the fine folk on here alone.

M41BC

#126 Estrella on 01.28.16 at 11:43 pm

Japan just announced negative interest rates.

Just something to think about if your up at midnight and just can’t sleep. Not that I know anyone like that.

#127 Teulon on 01.28.16 at 11:46 pm

#8 Nothing Surprises and #30 AB
You both don’t understand how municipal taxation works! If all assessments in a city double, it does not follow that everyone’s taxes double. Assessments are simply a method of allocating the tax burden based on your property’s value relative to the entire municipality’s assessed value.

#128 Shirley Valentine on 01.28.16 at 11:47 pm

#111 Drill Baby Drill on 01.28.16 at 10:35 pm

Attention
Smoking Man and Shirley Valentine Please get a motel room.

ABSOLUTELY!

#129 Brazil ex-pat on 01.28.16 at 11:48 pm

#103 Frank on 01.28.16 at 10:02 pm
You are so full of it when you say 95 percent of real estate transactions in Vancouver are local. How is this possible when the avg incone is something like 75k?

Debt. — Garth

Our household is over twice that average and the bank would only lend up $1M. So how is the average house selling for $1.6M with the average income of $75K? Even with subprime lenders no one is lending that amount.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

It’s absolutely known and accepted here in Brazil that much of the really nice property is bought by foreigners. Too bad it is such a “taboo” subject of truth in Vancouver.

#130 DON on 01.28.16 at 11:49 pm

#49 Joe on 01.28.16 at 7:37 pm

You are so full of it when you say 95 percent of real estate transactions in Vancouver are local. How is this possible when the avg incone is something like 75k?

Debt. — Garth

**************************************

I am sure there is a little bit of everything going on in Van.

1) Money flowing from Chinese relatives, husband (while wife and children reside in Van)
2) Non-residents account for some sales
3) local to local sales and from other provinces.
and
4) gangs and other organized operations run by groups and individuals (of all ages) buying houses to grow mary jane. I once knew or a group of individuals who purchased several houses, grew weed in the basements and had friendly caretakers (usually women) looking after the place. Hell they even had a lawyer on retainer just in case.

Back in the 80’s it was the Japanese in Van and now the Chinese. Same old story, but this started with the locals in the early 2000, when you could still by a condo on the quiet part of 4th ave for $169K and a house on the west side for 450K. (both numbers used to be considered high for Van at the time).

The rain wares on people, the traffic due to bridges, and twisting waterways slows to a crawl and the alternative routes are jammed. Nice view of the mountain in the summer when the clouds are gone, lol. Trendy place for the 18 – 35 crowd, but not exactly trendy. I rarely go back to Van only on business when I have to.

But to each their own.

#131 jane 24 on 01.28.16 at 11:53 pm

Dear Smoking Man

After reading your comments about where the real men are in Sweden/Germany/Canada I have to agree with your thoughts re Glasgow. I would also add Northern Ireland to your list. I have a lot of friends there and feel perfectly safe going out in dodgy areas as I know that if anyone felt me up my male friends would sort them out pretty quick.

Police there would look the other way as the annoying groper picked his teeth up from the ground. Personal conflict remains just that there, personal conflict!! You look after your own.

#132 DON on 01.28.16 at 11:54 pm

CBC BC

Vancity report suggests a 58% increase in payday loan use in B.C.

An increasing number of British Columbians are using payday loans to make ends meet, according to a new report from Vancity — but the payday loan industry says the bank’s numbers don’t add up.

Between 2012 and 2014, there was a 58 per cent jump in the number of people in the province using payday loans, according to the report, Short-Term Gain, Long-Term Pain: Examining the Growing Payday Loan Industry in B.C.

The short-term loans provide consumers with quick access to small amounts of money, usually accompanied by high fees and interest rates. In Canada, payday loans are capped at $1,500, with a maximum term of 62 days, according to the report.

As U.S. moves to regulate payday loan industry, why not Canada?
Maple Ridge bans new payday loan centres
Cash Store ordered to pay $1M for illegal payday loans

Linda Morris, senior vice president of business development for Vancity, said more than half of payday loan users in B.C. need access to emergency cash to pay for necessities.

“It could be to pay the rent, or they have a sudden expense — maybe they have a car and it breaks down and they just don’t have the spare money,” she said. “So it could be a variety of things, but it’s urgent things that come up and they can’t stretch their dollars any further.”…

#133 My Life is a Pile of Shit on 01.28.16 at 11:54 pm

Patrick: “It’s not a great situation to be in, but with no debt (rent, no mortgage)…I shudder to think what people with mortgages and debt do when they’re called into a room and suddenly…”

Rent is a form of financial obligation similar to debt. The money one pays to rent money is called interest. The money one pays to borrow living space is called rent. Rent by any other name is debt. Although a renter has better mobility, he has the same financial burden as a mortgagor. The next time your landlord says, “Better have my money!”, repeat to yourself, “Renting is freedom!”

#134 DON on 01.28.16 at 11:55 pm

Sorry about the job loss Patrick. If you need any leads I may be able to help.

#135 MF on 01.28.16 at 11:59 pm

#7 maure on 01.28.16 at 5:42 pm

I don’t know if I would say “something has got to give”.

If SA would stop pumping right now then nothing would have been accomplished since the petrostates would just breathe a collective sigh of relief. Then the petrostates would remark at the failed policy.

It is for that reason that it will be a while before oil recovers significantly. SA is in too deep to abandon tactics now. It’s survival of the oil fittest.

MF

#136 paddler on 01.29.16 at 12:05 am

There will be huge Property Tax bills in Vancouver this year.Makes me wonder how some of these home owners will pay the thousands of Dollars in property taxes on top of their mortgages.

#137 DON on 01.29.16 at 12:08 am

#84 BG on 01.28.16 at 9:12 pm

Sometimes I wonder if the world has always been so hopeless and I didn’t realize it before, or if it is just objectively getting worse.

This refugees crisis in Europe is particularly concerning for the western way of life.

**************

I have the same thought.

Like waking up in the Twilight Zone and staring stupid in the face.

I am starting to believe Smoking Man is from Nectonite and Putin is an alien.

#138 Chris on 01.29.16 at 12:16 am

With CAD so low IT company still closing shop. What happened? Did you guys try to start up a union or something?

#139 len on 01.29.16 at 12:29 am

As for business taxes, the higher they are, the less capital is invested and the fewer new jobs for guys like you. — Garth

Capital deployment according to Credit Suisse study for the years 1980 – 2013 (from Forbes August 2014 issue)

“Dividends paid as a percentage of total sales are at levels last seen in the 1980s. And share buybacks are at their highest levels since before the 2008 meltdown.”

Capex, on the other hand, is the smallest proportion and heading down and much of it is probably robots and such so this whole don’t tax capital is pure ideology peddled over and over.

Why is it that we treat capital with so much more reverence than labour? It is not some kind of natural law – merely business interest capture of our institutional power structures. The neoliberal program seems to be loosing steam pretty rapidly. Good riddance from my perspective anyways.

#140 Top on 01.29.16 at 12:48 am

Garth my wife was a mortgage broker and due to foreign ham $$ coming into Vancouver there’s no work they all pay cash. ..local buyer’s is so false . the local buyers are the re agents buying reno and flipping. Please admit that the majority is ham. Fact on another note ham is starting to dissappear here

#141 len on 01.29.16 at 12:48 am

Interesting times – Nikkei 1000 points swings definitely not the island of stability. And Yay! negative interest rates – so that too is spreading! But it will never happen here for sure.

Perhaps, we are not heading into some kind of normalcy but rather heading away from it

#142 Don on 01.29.16 at 12:51 am

“Ya tell folks what they want to hear in order to gain office. Alberta’s NDP did the same.”

I door-knocked for that party. I’m pleased to tell you my pitch at the door, and the pitch of the people I respect within the party generally:

“It doesn’t matter who you vote for, there are hard times coming. But the Tories have had decades to prepare, and they haven’t done a thing. Do they deserve to be rewarded for that?”

The Alberta NDP didn’t make hollow promises about rewarding the lazy and shiftless. Implying otherwise is misinformed at best. The only thing the Alberta NDP told voters that voters wanted to hear was “We are not the Alberta PC party.”

#143 Don on 01.29.16 at 12:57 am

I neglected the second pitch of the Alberta NDP: “We’ll do some long-delayed capital spending to take the edge off the worst of the economic storm. The Wild Rose prefers the Darwinian nightmare that will come from plowing headfirst into the financial hurricane.” It was both true and effective.

#144 acdel on 01.29.16 at 12:57 am

Berniebee,

By your online name I gather that you are probably from Burnaby, one of those who is opposed to renewing a pipeline that is still in use that was built in the 50’s, the only real issue that I have heard from the pipeline that was built in the 50’s was some unfortunate soul in a backhoe that accidentally struck it with his bucket and caused a spill.
I lived in Vancouver during the good times on the North Shore. I use to take a DIESEL bus down to the Quay. The Quay shopping center has numerous kiosk selling fresh seafood provided by fishermen using DIESEL powered boats. To the left of the Quay was the harbor tugboats, you guessed it powered by DIESEL, to the right was the Coast Guard powered by?? Further West were huge cargo ships loading sulfur and coal,ships powered by ?? In the Quay area a major bus zone, powered by ??, the Seabus is powered by what?? Canada Place where all those massive cruise liners dock are powered by what?? Next to Canada Place is Coal Harbor loaded with luxurious yacht’s, powered by what?? To the left of the Seabus terminal is a large cargo distribution center, all those massive ships are powered by what?? Deep Cove area supplies grain and oil supplies to large ships powered by what? Steveston is a harbor full of hard working fishermen with boat s powered by?? Take a flight (powered by??) over the Rockies and look down on the devastation of clear cut logging that one does not see off the highway; how about the S.E. sector of B.C. supported by mines, Kamloops area with their numerous copper mines, NE BC gas and oil extractions where the (oh the horror) the pipelines run into Alberta for processing. The numerous hydro dams you have that have flooded how many millions of acres of prime forest and to this day is releasing methane into the atmosphere through rotting vegetation, I could go on and on. My point is quit being so hypocritical! The reality every province have created a huge carbon footprint; the oilsands are relatively new comparing to all other industries. Each year the technology is becoming better and better due to all the highly educated engineers, plant managers, money that is invested in the industry. With that money new efficient energy projects are being created. Southern Alberta has a large wind farm, solar power is becoming more affordable. Alberta just spent billions on a new DC powerline which will allow anyone with extra power to sell back to the power companies without affecting power distribution. There is so much happening in Alberta that nobody is aware of through ignorance, it’s all available online. My point is it takes money to create these new technologies and we are getting there, but it takes time. You cannot expect a Province where temperatures can dip to the minus 40’s to rely on solar or wind at this point and time. The technology is not there yet!

#145 Koshy Alex on 01.29.16 at 12:58 am

The Bank of Japan just stunned global markets by announcing negative interest rates
http://www.businessinsider.com/bank-of-japan-announces-negative-interest-rates-2016-1?&platform=bi-androidapp

#146 Balmuto on 01.29.16 at 1:00 am

NIRP in Japan. Record low JGB yields. Wow, this just reeks of desperation:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-29/japan-s-10-year-yield-drops-to-record-after-boj-s-negative-rate

#147 DisgustMadeMePost on 01.29.16 at 1:14 am

You are so full of it when you say 95 percent of real estate transactions in Vancouver are local. How is this possible when the avg incone is something like 75k?

Debt. — Garth

Our household is over twice that average and the bank would only lend up $1M. So how is the average house selling for $1.6M with the average income of $75K? Even with subprime lenders no one is lending that amount.

……………….

Friend of mine AND hubby are not working yet they bought a 1.6? 1.7? Property. They managed this by selling their house and adding a 250 k mortgage. Again, managed by the new home having a rented mortgage helper …

So, it is possible.

Must be close to breaking point though.

#148 kommykim on 01.29.16 at 1:14 am

RE:

#97 IHCTD9 on 01.28.16 at 9:50 pm
What would you call a 17 BILLION deficit? You know, just for the record…

Smaller than each of the Harper deficits from 2009 to 2013! And pretty close to the $16.6B run up by the CONs in 2014.

#149 Rooke on 01.29.16 at 1:22 am

What would a correction in housing prices in Vancouver do to the prices of homes in Victoria?

#150 fishman on 01.29.16 at 1:49 am

Mark: I don’t know how banks (by that I mean the big 5 in Canada) operate East of the Rockies, but here in tinseltown the free money has to be covered by an income stream. Look it up, there is a formula. Then they put the 1st on the equity to cover themselves. You gotta go upstairs for the 8%+ money if the dog ate your T-4’s but found the Notice of Assessment rather bitter & just kinda gummed it a bit,

#151 Square in the sights on 01.29.16 at 2:12 am

Just a sec, won’t the economy improve if we lead from the heart’? Those Chinese governors are leading with their heads, stockpiling potash even as our companies lay off. everyday there’s another announcement of big buys at record low prices. Meanwhile in Asian trade the C$ has hit historic lows. Go Trudeau Go

#152 palebird on 01.29.16 at 2:57 am

#90 Oh yeah you are right, we are so politically correct it is embarrassing.

#11 Yes I have been asked those questions repeatedly over the years from many countries. People abroad are incredulous that we fail to move ahead, we just rest on our laurels, so to speak..

#153 Kenchie on 01.29.16 at 3:18 am

#77 Berniebee on 01.28.16 at 8:58 pm
“Eyeroll. At $30 a barrel, the tar will stay in the sands. No pipeline is needed. And if oil stays this low much longer, you’ll be thankful for equalization payments.”

——————————————

Wrong, the need for pipelines is much greater at ~US$30 than at ~$100 per barrel since the Western Canadian Select is so discounted relative to WTI. That gap needs to close more so at absolute lower levels, which we are seeing today as WCS is ~US$16. Canada needs more pipelines from Alberta. It’s not even about the environment any more. It’s just pure stupidity to not accept that pipelines are 1) safer, 2) more economical, and 3) less intrusive than any other mode of transporting oil.

FYI, China’s oil consumption rose by 8% in 2015. No slow down there. China ended the year with just under 2.5 million cars produced in DECEMBER 2015 alone! That’s more than Canada makes in a year. On an annualized basis that is nearly 30 million cars. If we aren’t shipping them oil, you bet your sweet arse that Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Russia and other less than environmentally-friendly nations will be. So the world’s environment is worse off as Canada’s oil doesn’t make it to tidewater.

#154 Kenchie on 01.29.16 at 3:22 am

#87 prairiegopher on 01.28.16 at 9:16 pm
“Bye Bye Juthtin, oh and on your way out take Nutley with you!”

LOL. That’s not how majority governments work.

#155 Fine wild roasted gonads on 01.29.16 at 3:35 am

RE complete with wenches…. And he has a fine looking dog.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/nothing-offensive-about-hiring-wenches-says-regina-man-who-is-turning-his-house-into-a-castle

#156 Only-inflation-to-reduce-debt-burden on 01.29.16 at 4:06 am

“”there’s a strong “risk of correction” in Toronto, Saskatoon and Regina.””

Grouping Toronto with Saskatoon and Regina,,, Really…???

#157 Koshy Alex on 01.29.16 at 6:32 am

“Corporate criminals routinely escape meaningful prosecution for their misconduct.”

Elizabeth Warren: One Way to Rebuild Our Institutions http://nyti.ms/1nrNIAh

#158 economictsunami on 01.29.16 at 6:43 am

I believe at one time the BoJ and the Japanese government both said that negative interest rates would never happen.

In today’s economic/ financial environment it’s best to never say never.

Japan sets negative interest rate in hopes of boosting economy:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/japan-negative-rate-1.3424943

From competitive devaluation to full fledged currency wars…

#159 IHCTD9 on 01.29.16 at 7:09 am

#107 Bottoms_Up on 01.28.16 at 10:20 pm
#97 IHCTD9 on 01.28.16 at 9:50
—————————————
And how do you explain the $140 billion in deficits under Harper between 2010-2013?
___________________________________

He borrowed a bunch of money and spent it.

Nowhere have I said Harper did not increase debt or deficit because clearly he did.

BUT, he was well on the way to knocking the deficit to zero, the first 7 months of 2015 actually showed a small surplus according to the DOF update in Dec 2015. Harper had it down to 941 million by Oct 2015, he was doing what JT needs to do – get back in the black – and from there, start making some commitments to knocking down the debt.

My talking points center around stupid allocations and commitments to large sums of Federal cash made by JT – and in his thus far very short time in office. I’ve pointed out JT’s ravenous addiction to spending commitments while tossing the state of the economy aside.

Further to that, his boneheaded tax cut amounted to a straight up annual Federal revenue chop that will bite every single year from here on in. His proposed undoing of Harpers cost controls on PSU’s will be another Billion+ per year, every year – forever. Trudeau clearly doesn’t seem to understand just how bad Federal revenue is going to tank in 2016, even if he wasn’t trying so hard to make it worse.

JT is going to increase spending, increase government size and compensation, and more than anything else – increase deficit spending and debt – everything we don’t need right now.

#160 Tony on 01.29.16 at 7:15 am

Anyone thinking of shorting oil do it at the open today not at noon. 25 dollars a barrel in February has now become a certainty with Japan’s move to negative interest rates. Anyone thinking of shorting the Canadian dollar do it at the open today.

#161 Tony on 01.29.16 at 7:18 am

Re: #157 economictsunami on 01.29.16 at 6:43 am

Likely more dire consequences as 20 years of zero interest rates only resulted in 20 years of no growth and an endless recession.

#162 neganegative on 01.29.16 at 7:28 am

A taste of things to come in Canada?

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/29/bank-of-japans-negative-rates-are-economic-kamikaze-boockvar.html

#163 Rick on 01.29.16 at 7:49 am

I always find it interesting that Liberals/Progressives, slam the Conservatives for debt/deficits; but their plan is to increase both. It is also interesting how the Liberals/Progressives, campaigned to slash the TFSA; “because it benefitted the rich”. When in fact RRSP’s benefit the rich most. To the folks in the GTA that enabled the Liberals/Progressives; elections have consequences….enjoy:)

#164 maxx on 01.29.16 at 8:04 am

#4 Canadian Real Estate Update on 01.28.16 at 5:38 pm

Yes indeed.

Stupid is as stupid does.

#165 IHCTD9 on 01.29.16 at 8:05 am

#147 kommykim on 01.29.16 at 1:14 am
RE:

#97 IHCTD9 on 01.28.16 at 9:50 pm
What would you call a 17 BILLION deficit? You know, just for the record…

Smaller than each of the Harper deficits from 2009 to 2013! And pretty close to the $16.6B run up by the CONs in 2014.
___________________________________________

What’s the matter, don’t want to talk about 2015?

How about 2008?

No?

Harper ran a ~5.2 billion for 2014 just for your info.

941 million is the number to remember, as much as the Trudeau apologists can’t bring their memories to include any Harper deficit number past 2014 (or prior to the GFC)

Harper kicked things off with 9.6 Billion Surplus just before the GFC hit. Sure, I know a Global economic apocalypse is no reason to get into debt, and even though most of the first world barely avoided a visit from the four horseman while we sold bonds instead is no excuse either; the oh-so important detail no Trudeau selfie owner wants to talk about is the fact that Harper paid it down. He took a near 56 Billion crater in 2010, and turned it into a sub-1 billion pothole by 2015.

As of right now, Moreneau’s last comment on the Federal budget, was to run away from any media representative that asked anything about it.

Do you think that’s because it’s so good – he wanted to keep it as a surprise for all of us?

I’ll invite you to just say it out loud in front of everyone:

“Trudeau will further reduce our Federal deficit beyond what Harper managed to do, and Trudeau will also make commitments to lower our Federal debt as well, something Harper just couldn’t do”

Just like that – easy no?

Let’s hear it :).

#166 Jane Simpson on 01.29.16 at 8:12 am

Japan has gone negative on stock markets for decades now, Nikkei 225 38,000 versus 17,600 today, 53% negative total return since 1989.

Their real estate markets still stink and are down 40% to 60% depending where you buy. Once again negative.

By the way, raising their sales taxes did not help the economy but hindered it so their negative to low interest rates are a complete failure. Nikkei 225 is down 26% for 2016 with only 29 days passed.

This is -.89% per day. Go Japan go!

#167 learningfromyou on 01.29.16 at 8:25 am

Bombardier has shown a high level of incompetence for not finishing on time that flying toothpaste.

Now if I was a client needing to buy one, would I buy a plane from somebody desperate?
Even if it was the best plane in the world, for sure no.

On top of that the government with their way of acting is allowing other countries (France) to get big contracts from the Iranians while we sit our backs behind a desk doing politics and dressed in style.
No, no, we cannot do business because our Canadians brains are bigger and we need to check more regulations.

Another case.

Zenn was a Canadian who started to produce electric vehicles, they tried their best to sell them in Canada, no result, finally they tried to sell them offshore

Result
http://www.eestorcorp.com/contact-information.html
ZENN Vehicle Maintenance
On June 30 2013, ZENN Motor Company closed its service operations and ceased providing parts and service support previously offered for ZENN Low Speed Vehicles. The closure of the service department is part of the Company’s decision in March 2010, to cease production of ZENN LSVs.

Does anybody notice how competitive we are here?,
the only thing we do best is selling between ourselves the fish cans we renamed to HOME.

#168 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.29.16 at 8:28 am

@#143 acdel

“p a r a g r a p h”

#169 maxx on 01.29.16 at 8:33 am

#13 Drunk Actuary on 01.28.16 at 5:47 pm

“I pretty much agree with everything Garth posted today.

My only question is, how long can this market stay that irrational ? It’s been years since many people (all over the world) know that the Re valuations are unsustainable here, however year after year no significant correction occurs…”

Irrationality will continue as long as government and the central bank persist in propping up the re mess with artificially low interest rates. Easy-peazy.

They are smitten beyond repair with the private business model and until they realize that their jobs are to govern and not to pander exclusively to business, nothing will change. If business so much as whispers “foul”, when talk of raising rates or tax arises, government quickly folds, worried that they might possibly, maybe, potentially, perhaps upset it. Wieners.

There is hardly a more creatively adaptable organ as business. It can swim almost no matter what conditions arise. There is very little room for the weak, who fail – but overwhelmingly, most business survives.

It does not need the additional “help” it’s getting, which is damaging the real economy and more importantly, the balance sheets of all levels of society.

The “micro engines” of the real economy, taxpayer’s wallets, are a very powerful force when cared for properly and forcing too much cash into re has been a huge mistake, replacing wealth with demands for payment.

Our smarter neighbours to the south realized this long ago.

#170 Mark on 01.29.16 at 8:48 am

“Alberta just spent billions on a new DC powerline which will allow anyone with extra power to sell back to the power companies without affecting power distribution. – “

No, that is not the purpose and/or reason for a HVDC power line. The reason for the HVDC powerline in Alberta was primarily on account of so much surplus generation existing in the highly industrialized North not being able to efficiently transfer energy through the existing grid to the relatively energy deficient southern Alberta. AC transmission lines do relatively poorly over long distances (on account of magnetic induction) which is why the HVDC option was chosen. There is no correlation or technical relationship between the construction of the line, and the existence of feed-in or net metering tariffs as you claim.

but here in tinseltown the free money has to be covered by an income stream

Lenders being willing to lend a million bucks against $150k family income isn’t uncommon. And cyclicality of income isn’t considered at all in the CMHC approval process. So income is such a minor factor. T4 verification? You’ve got to be joking.

but here in tinseltown the free money has to be covered by an income stream

Canada’s IT sector, including in-house IT has been in a state of secular decline since the 2000 apex. In many cases, its a reduction of investment, but also, IT professionals can just accomplish a lot more these days with fewer resources and lower relative skill levels.

Then there’s outsourcing which has had a devastating effect on long-term IT careers in many medium and large businesses. Even smaller businesses, in many cases, are well served ditching their “IT guy” and buying as many “cloud” services as needed.

Mark @ 109 wrote this piece of garbage

*sigh*, nice to meet you, Mr. Realtor. But your entire message, purporting to attack me, reeks of desperation.

Japan to introduce negative interest rates… Who’s next?

I went on record at the beginning of the year to indicate that the Fed would be at -0.5% by the end of the year.

Banks have data for YVR that show that there are barely any mortgages over $1 Million. Yet many houses are over $2 million. They refuse to make that data public. Wonder why? Yes, its debt that is causing runaway prices.

As I wrote, its the move-up buyers driving the high end. And lots of people have more debt than would ever have been judged prudent, at least by the typical measurements used in the past. 50-year-olds taking on 25-year amortizations, for example. Lending against peak cyclical income for the highly cyclical incomes of certain occupations.

#171 Dups on 01.29.16 at 8:52 am

That chart is scary.
That is a no entry zone for any normal individual that makes an average amount of yearly income.

#172 Leo Trollstoy on 01.29.16 at 8:52 am

#145 Balmuto on 01.29.16 at 1:00 am

japan been in the desperate for long time. ppl too old. no spending.

#173 down and out on 01.29.16 at 8:58 am

Just back from BC and friends mention they are upset with assessment near a million because they would not qualify for property tax rebate and have to wait unit 65 years of age to defer property taxes altogether .WOW talk about la la land check out BC government property tax grant website ,how does that province function.

#174 Herb on 01.29.16 at 8:59 am

#70 Temple,

thank you. I was beginning to wonder if I was questioning Garth’s rush to judgment by myself.

Which leads me to ask #102 AB Boxster, what numbers?

#175 Capt. Obvious on 01.29.16 at 9:01 am

The time has come for this link:
Why You Can’t Afford a House in San Francisco (from spring 2005):
http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/405/housing.htm

“Now that we understand what drives home prices—loan size dictated by rates and income—most everything else about the real estate market, even at the local level, falls neatly into place. For example, it might appear at first glance that falling mortgage rates are a good thing for home buyers. But for the most part, they aren’t; all that falling rates accomplish is to increase the PV (present value) number that appears in the financial calculator. The bad news is that purchase prices go up, but the good news is that mortgage payments won’t be much different than before the fall in rates. At the end of the day, new buyers will write the same monthly check to the bank, no matter what has happened to interest rates. The falling rate/rising price scenario isn’t even that good for sellers; yes, they’ll get more for their house, but this will be offset by the lower expected security returns available to the capital raised. Only the real estate agents and tax assessors are happy.”

#176 Herb on 01.29.16 at 9:09 am

Garth, to #110 Bottoms_Up

As for business taxes, the higher they are, the less capital is invested and the fewer new jobs for guys like you. — Garth

Zounds, but that seems to depend on which side of the economic and political spectrum you consult, say, the Fraser Institute for the capitalist, or the CCPA for the socialist side.

Of course, you can always ask yourself if your individual or our collective economy has grown as we lowered our corporate tax rates – http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/corporate-tax-rate.

To which the counter question, of course, is what growth would have been if we hadn’t, and that answer will again depend on which side of the spectrum you ask.

Isn’t the “dismal science” grand? You read tea leaves after the event, and then arrange them for your economic or political benefit.

#177 JamesA on 01.29.16 at 9:12 am

Its hard to find good programmers. Part of the problem is there is crazy demand for talent. The crazy demand creates these very dubious 6 week “learn to hack” courses. The market get swamped with 6wk hackers. The people come out and get discouraged because HR people are not knocking down their door. The fact is they have learned very little. HR departments are inundated with CVs that are just a sea of the latest tech buzz words. 95% of candidates are useless (not them personally, just what little they know now, many can learn it if they do the work).

If you can afford it, and want to work at a high end outfit (Google, Apple etc), you still should try to get a real science degree (Math, Bio, Physics, CS etc) from a proper university.

If you can’t, its not the end of the world. Startups will take anyone with promise. Take one of those 6 week courses. If you enjoy it (many don’t) then you might have a knack for it. But thats just the beginning. You then need to go make cool stuff to show them. You want to work at a fintech place? Write a stock market simulator webapp that allows users to test different market strategies (*hint* its probably dollar cost averaging). Its so easy to use the HR person picks it up in a couple of minutes (thats the time window for a game before they will give up) and has fun. Put the link on your resume and show the source on github.

I guess your simulator should be able to handle negative central bank interest rates (Japan you are a bit crazy).

#178 hope & ruin on 01.29.16 at 9:15 am

#130 jane 24 on 01.28.16 at 11:53 pm

Once spent a week in a rough part of Glasgow. Never saw so many street fights in my life. People would walk pass each other. Someone would say or shout something. Scuffle ensues, punches thrown. Then everyone walks away. Police just make sure the ambulance doesn’t need to be called.

It was a daily occurrence. Nobody blinked.

#179 PRR S1 Class 6-4-4-6 on 01.29.16 at 9:24 am

Strange days.

CME Fed Funds futures are pricing in NO rate hikes by the Fed this year. The speculation amongst my colleagues is which central bank will cut rates first – consensus seems to be ECB, followed by BofC and finally, reluctantly, the Fed. Negative rates (which at one time were called discount rates) are here and will spread widely. How this will play out I haven’t a clue, but one thing for sure – I ain’t buying a house! Or a condo, of which there are MANY in the Big Lemon.

Live simply – Live small – Be frugal

Your correspondent Patrick is wise. People should listen to Patrick.

#180 Yanniel on 01.29.16 at 9:37 am

I agree that most jobs are in peril; but people in the IT and programming industry are doing quite well, at least in Toronto that is.

IT and software development jobs are quite on demand (just a do a quick search on monster.ca). I know this first hand because I am a software developer myself, my wife is also a software developer, and most of my friends are software developers.

Finding a new job in Toronto’s IT industry is like switching underwear.

I have seen many IT companies lately with presence in both the US and Canada closing some US office in favor of the Canadian offices. Why? Simple, we are 70% cheaper dollar wise. This actually happened with my company. My office in Toronto is growing while other US offices are being merged or closed all together.

Patrick should stop whining and should just go ahead finding another IT job. If Vancouver cannot provide it; then he should move to Toronto. Or maybe closer, Seattle will provide all the IT work in the world.

#181 Mark on 01.29.16 at 9:44 am

“Its hard to find good programmers. Part of the problem is there is crazy demand for talent.”

Not only is there not ‘crazy demand for talent’ (salaries would be rapidly rising if there was), but a lot of highly talented people are lost in the flow of resumes. And to claim that 95% of the people are junk — how would employers even know this if they’re not bringing those people in for interviews?

Usually when there’s a shortage of anything, prices rise significantly, and even marginal talent is tapped. But very little evidence of this happening in the contemporary Canada/USA IT sector. Even in the allegedly ‘hot’ Silicon Valley, mere police officers are, on average, out-earning the software engineering talent. And home ownership is unattainable on a software salary.

Of course, that’s not to say that firms still would like to hire those “800lb gorillas” of the profession that can accomplish the work of 2-3 ordinary programmers on one relatively low salary. That’s probably true of every profession. But that’s not really equateable to strong demand in the profession, or even strong demand for talent. And let’s face it, how many decent quality professionals really want to give their work away free by putting it on GitHub or similar? A profession most certainly cannot be said to be “hot” if a proximate pre-requisite to employment in it is being a volunteer.

#182 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 01.29.16 at 9:44 am

#31 Jeff Gauld on 01.28.16 at 6:31 pm says “Patrick still gotta make those rent payments Garth.”

Patrick can give 60 days notice and move to a new employment opportunity, whereas a home owner sitting on an illiquid asset that is dropping in value does not have that same flexibility.

#183 Smoking Man on 01.29.16 at 9:53 am

#178 Yanniel on 01.29.16 at 9:37 am
I agree that most jobs are in peril; but people in the IT and programming industry are doing quite well, at least in Toronto that is.

IT and software development jobs are quite on demand (just a do a quick search on monster.ca). I know this first hand because I am a software developer myself, my wife is also a software developer, and most of my friends are software developers.

Finding a new job in Toronto’s IT industry is like switching underwear.

I have seen many IT companies lately with presence in both the US and Canada closing some US office in favor of the Canadian offices. Why? Simple, we are 70% cheaper dollar wise. This actually happened with my company. My office in Toronto is growing while other US offices are being merged or closed all together.

Patrick should stop whining and should just go ahead finding another IT job. If Vancouver cannot provide it; then he should move to Toronto. Or maybe closer, Seattle will provide all the IT work in the world.
……………..

Very true, But the big money is made in NYC, Boston Charlotte, Connecticut.

Make double what CAD companies pay, and you get a 1.4 multiplier when you convert it to CAD.

No brainer if you ask me.

Why are you still here?

#184 Julia on 01.29.16 at 9:55 am

#91 Mark

If I read correctly, as of last report, CMHC’s exposure on mortgage insurance is $525B (of $600B cap.), plus $426B of securitization (of $600B cap, with a $120B increase approved), backed 100% by the Government of Canada.
Canada Guaranty and Genworth I believe are $300B or $350B backed 95% by the Government of Canada.

#185 neo on 01.29.16 at 10:01 am

Garth,

Let’s see…U.S. GDP for 4th QTR was .69% and Canada’s trending to about 0.1%. Not quite the divergence you are talking about. North America as a whole is stalling and so the global economy.

It’s winter. Don’t get too excited. — Garth

#186 Daisy Mae on 01.29.16 at 10:06 am

#47: “You say the Liberals misjudged the economy….or you mean Stephen Harper screwed it up so badly and lied about the shape of our finances?”

**********************

My sentiments exactly. Place the blame where it belongs.

It appears they both lied. — Garth

#187 replyingtoatroll on 01.29.16 at 10:09 am

“Harper had it down to 941 million by Oct 2015, he was doing what JT needs to do – get back in the black – and from there, start making some commitments to knocking down the debt. – See more at: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/28/shudders/#comments

Why and at what cost?

“Debt bad” how come some humans are hard wired with this narrow-minded imperative?

This isn’t like your dad or your wife has a gambling problem and is 5 million in debt; we’re a sovereign nation with bigger problems than a few billion of our own dollars in debt.

Triple the deficit if it brings prosperity!

We tried penny pinching federal austerity and we tried kowtowing to the corporate crowd for 10 years… things are worse now!

More of the same would be insanity; give your head a shake, your one single thought is blocking your vision.

#188 Mark on 01.29.16 at 10:20 am

“If I read correctly, as of last report, CMHC’s exposure on mortgage insurance is $525B (of $600B cap.), plus $426B of securitization (of $600B cap, with a $120B increase approved), backed 100% by the Government of Canada. Canada Guaranty and Genworth I believe are $300B or $350B backed 95% by the Government of Canada. ”

I believe some of the securitization guarantees over-lap the straight CMHC mortgage insurance guarantees. So CMHC wouldn’t be paying twice on the same defaulted mortgage. And IIRC, Genworth/Canada Guarantee are only 90%, not 95% re-insured. But it really doesn’t matter whether CMHC’s leverage is 40X or 70X — its fairly obvious that in a correlated housing downturn event, that CMHC’s paltry capital cushion will be rapidly depleted.

Grouping Toronto with Saskatoon and Regina,,, Really…???

Seems kind of random, yes, but there is a high degree of correlation across the country on account of the significant concentration of Canada’s concentrated banking sector, and the uniformity of CMHC subprime mortgage insurance policies.

#189 gut check on 01.29.16 at 10:20 am

anyone want to give their opinion on why the oil prices have made such astonishing gains lately?

is this a trend or a blip

(looking forward to Mark’s answer and then applying the Bizarro World analysis to it)

#190 iRent on 01.29.16 at 10:50 am

Looks like the 60c CAD and recession fears are gone now. Oil is also recovering nicely and likewise real estate can climb higher. How does situation change so quickly… manipulation of some kind?

Real estate fortunes depend on employment and wage growth. No improvement there. The stock market is another story. — Garth

#191 The Other Chris on 01.29.16 at 10:53 am

What are people’s thoughts about trying to get into the computer programming industry in Toronto as an older adult (late ’30s)? Is it doable, or are they just looking for young hires?

#192 CP on 01.29.16 at 10:55 am

I’m (luckily, I guess?) in the same position as Patrick. I was laid off the first week back to work in Jan., however due to having a safe portfolio strategy, emergency savings, and little to no debt I should be OK. I don’t plan on being unemployed long, however you never know so better safe than sorry. My friends (mostly mid-30s) live a lifestyle that has yet to be fully earned (trips, huge mortgages, car leases, etc), I’m just glad to be the contrarian of the group

#193 The Goat on 01.29.16 at 11:12 am

Never will this crash happen. I use to think it would occur, however we now have different factors in play. Canada is a beast that will not lower it’s R/E value. Yes I missed a huge opportunity to make a fortune. This is the new norm.

People use to say that about dot.com stocks. Pretty funny. — Garth

#194 TurnerNation on 01.29.16 at 11:12 am

Globe mentioned TSX up 10% off its lows.
Nervous Nellies and Lazy Susans panicked.

#195 rainclouds on 01.29.16 at 11:23 am

Reg Thurs Hockey group. Natch the Conversation turns to RE. West/East Side/ North Shore residents

From the West Siders.” Chinese money is everywhere, they are buying entire apartment buildings” Uppa Uppa all good! I try the Greater Fool rebuttals, am shot down as a heretic.

In walks Mortgage Broker owner (he has 9 employees) I ask “who is buying RE currently”?
” Young Professional couples, people who are getting money from Mom and Dad”

Meanwhile buddy sitting beside me (who owns at Main and 22 ).”I am listing my house, 1.7million for a beater is nuts and cant continue”

We live in interesting times

#196 NoName on 01.29.16 at 11:24 am

#41 acdel on 01.28.16 at 6:55 pm
Resilient vs Smart
I’ll refer you to this resilience thingy, so you can learn thing or two.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/01/pay-attention-4/#comment-414453


The clock is ticking for this country to stay as one!

Do you know that “you” are land locked? Just think this is don’t won’t to have anything to do with oilsands, and can you imagine tariffs on a any pipeline through neighboring communist provinces/countries.
Remember when WR and DS announced that she was an about to build “firewall” around alberta to protect it, now it seem that exactly opposite happened, no one wants your resources. for now anyways.Keep in mind that there is a reason why Quebec voted no for separation in 90, and they have a port and access to seas.

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/000/150/662/5954828047_af51d53522.jpg

SideNote
Next time think before you put that x in the circle !!!

#197 cramar on 01.29.16 at 11:38 am

#48 Courtney Hanson on 01.28.16 at 7:35 pm

I have been working since I was 18 years old and never had any debt. I am 27 years old and rent a modest place I can afford.

I have had many jobs and now have 3 part-time jobs and don’t need a car, uber, ride sharing works well and am still able to save $1,500 a month. Maxed out all my RRSP and TFSA contribution room with now $150,000 in them.

If I can’t pay cash or without debt I don’t buy it. It is that simple.

Debt is for losers and people who don’t actually earn their money. I look at it this way, if the job market and real estate market is tougher then why should I be any less.

———–

Well Courtney, you really are a breath of fresh air! You’re one in 10,000. It is unfortunate that you are the exception and not the rule! If everyone of your generation were like you, people would have better lives, and the country would have a better future.

You are living proof that being wise with your finances, living within your means, and saving as much as possible will still work in the current economy. Too many people are saying that today is different, that saving doesn’t work, and the only way to the good life is using debt. It is inspiring to find someone who uses prudent time-honoured principles and succeeds bucking the trend.

If you are willing to except advice from a wrinkly Boomer, then I will pass on this. Since you have financial ways nailed down pat, pay attention to your health & wellness as you go through life. IF you uncover the secrets to health and longevity, you can live a long and prosperous life, and enjoy your life to the full.

May you live healthy and prosperous all your days!

#198 maure on 01.29.16 at 11:47 am

#134 MF

SA is not the only state with significant oil reserves. Therefore others also have an interest in not selling oil at 20-30.

If SA cut production alone, and others would not cut, it would lose market share. Revenues = barrels x price. Even though price would rise, SA sold barrels would fall.
That is the problem with cartels, everyone has an incentive to be a freerider. That is why drug cartels are so violent when there is more than one.

#199 Bat Flipper on 01.29.16 at 11:51 am

How are values so sky high? Debt obviously, but a few other reasons.

If you buy a home for 500K and it goes up to 1 million, then upgrading from a 1 million home to 1.2 million, it is only 200K more on your mortgage than before. Lots of people are moving, not many can get into the market.

So many private lenders. Where banks have exited, private lenders have some to fill the void. Many banks will give a loan to a borrower without much of any confirmation if you have 35% down payment. Privates can make up the gap by loaning you the difference to 90% without the income confirmation either or much of a credit score either.

Regulators say we don’t have subprime, but they have no idea how much is out there. we won’t have any idea either until foreclosures start to increase to see if it is a soft decline or a subprime crash.

#200 maure on 01.29.16 at 11:51 am

#67 hope & ruin

investments that big require calculation of marginal costs in long run and many other factors such as oil future hedging.

so far the canadian oil sands are still producing, which says a lot about what are the REAL marginal costs there. Royalty rates are reviewed today in Alberta.

#201 Panhead on 01.29.16 at 12:18 pm

#104 WUL on 01.28.16 at 10:07 pm
The kid is winding his way through his first year apprenticeship twisting wrenches

Sorry about your son … As for me i got lucky and never needed papers. Was trained on the job back when there were enough employees to train. That era looong gone. Would suggest picking a niche job (something everyone avoids) and pick up the books. You have to have the skills nowadays to make the company want you. Theory from books is a good start. If you have what they want you are usually treated like gold … good luck.

#202 Smoking Man on 01.29.16 at 12:21 pm

#188 gut check on 01.29.16 at 10:20 am
anyone want to give their opinion on why the oil prices have made such astonishing gains lately?

is this a trend or a blip

(looking forward to Mark’s answer and then applying the Bizarro World analysis to it)
…………………

Lots of rumors about OPEC and Russia cutting production, Algos trading the rumor headlines.

Mark your turn.

#203 Julie K. on 01.29.16 at 12:38 pm

#190 The Other Chris ~

“…as an older adult (late ’30s)?”

*****

Late 30’s deemed OLD? Your kidding, right?

Right?

Bro, your just warming up. Best is yet to come.

#204 Smoking Man on 01.29.16 at 12:50 pm

One more Gut Check

BOJ went to Zero rates, Currency war back on, which means hang this on your fridge, FED is done spiking rates, in fact sticking to my original call, One done and reverse.

Oil is spiking on the Market recovery now that no spike sentiment is in the air.

CAD should strengthen on this.

#205 Newbie on 01.29.16 at 12:51 pm

How Much Is That 3rd Bedroom Worth?
http://www.torontorealtyblog.com/archives/13438?utm_content=bufferccb13&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

#206 No Brainer on 01.29.16 at 12:51 pm

#182 Smoking Man on 01.29.16 at 9:53 am
#178 Yanniel on 01.29.16 at 9:37 am
I agree that most jobs are in peril; but people in the IT and programming industry are doing quite well, at least in Toronto that is.
IT and software development jobs are quite on demand (just a do a quick search on monster.ca). I know this first hand because I am a software developer myself, my wife is also a software developer, and most of my friends are software developers.

Finding a new job in Toronto’s IT industry is like switching underwear.

I have seen many IT companies lately with presence in both the US and Canada closing some US office in favor of the Canadian offices. Why? Simple, we are 70% cheaper dollar wise. This actually happened with my company. My office in Toronto is growing while other US offices are being merged or closed all together.
Patrick should stop whining and should just go ahead finding another IT job. If Vancouver cannot provide it; then he should move to Toronto. Or maybe closer, Seattle will provide all the IT work in the world.
……………..

Very true, But the big money is made in NYC, Boston Charlotte, Connecticut.
Make double what CAD companies pay, and you get a 1.4 multiplier when you convert it to CAD.
No brainer if you ask me.
Why are you still here?
:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Yes Smoking Man why are you still here what happened to the Great Boston Gig? Apparently you are still here in the GTA sluffing off your shtick.
No brainer if you ask me!

#207 Noel on 01.29.16 at 12:58 pm

“Anyone buying into this market is gambling. Anyone exiting is a genius.”

I thought you weren’t supposed to time the market?

Fine. Stay in for a few more years. See what happens. — Garth

#208 MF on 01.29.16 at 1:21 pm

#197 maure on 01.29.16 at 11:47 am

Indeed. Great points.

It’s a game of chicken. I still see lots of pumping to continue because of the culture in the Mideast, which is about respect/prestige. These guys are playing for real and they won’t let a Russian (or any other) threat change that.

MF

#209 Danoc86 on 01.29.16 at 1:21 pm

#48 Courtney Hanson on 01.28.16 at 7:35 pm

I have been working since I was 18 years old and never had any debt. I am 27 years old and rent a modest place I can afford.

I have had many jobs and now have 3 part-time jobs and don’t need a car, uber, ride sharing works well and am still able to save $1,500 a month. Maxed out all my RRSP and TFSA contribution room with now $150,000 in them.

If I can’t pay cash or without debt I don’t buy it. It is that simple.

Debt is for losers and people who don’t actually earn their money. I look at it this way, if the job market and real estate market is tougher then why should I be any less.
—————————————————————-

Very happy for you! keep up the good work

29 years old and following the same principles
manage to save $1600 a month and rent as well. will buy a house when it makes sense

have $210 k in a balanced portfolio. Both wife and mine TFSA are maxed and a lira of $ 40 K

I was raised by my grandparents and love the values they instilled in me keep it simple buy what you can afford and don’t try to keep up with the jones, the smiths are good people too

very fortunate to have stumbled across this site 5 years ago

GT your the man bro, keep up the good work. hope Bandit is recovering well.

#210 kommykim on 01.29.16 at 1:26 pm

RE:

#164 IHCTD9 on 01.29.16 at 8:05 am #147 kommykim on 01.29.16 at 1:14 am RE: #97 IHCTD9 on 01.28.16 at 9:50 pm What would you call a 17 BILLION deficit? You know, just for the record… Smaller than each of the Harper deficits from 2009 to 2013! And pretty close to the $16.6B run up by the CONs in 2014. ___________________________________________ What’s the matter, don’t want to talk about 2015? How about 2008?

Sure no problem:
2008: 5.8 BILLION deficit
2009: 55.6 BILLION!!!!!!!

2015: The CONs lied about it.
“Anyway, here’s the situation this weekend: the Cons lied. Thus, we do not have a balanced budget, as Joe O insisted for months and as the Harper government announced long before the election was called. That was a fabrication. It was marketing. Fraud.” – See more at: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/11/20/the-path-ahead/#sthash.gl4F6sQB.dpuf

#211 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.29.16 at 1:30 pm

Mark @#40 sez:

“People will say anything to rationalize an irrational position.”

BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

#212 BS on 01.29.16 at 1:32 pm

@121

Even though Vancouver has lots of houses for sale now in the $2 million plus range the pool fo real estate sold across Canada over the past 10 years over $1 million would have been a fraction of 1%. So It would be expected that mortgages over $1 million would be a small part of the RBC mortgage debt even if every house sold over $1 million was mortgaged.

#213 Smartalox on 01.29.16 at 1:40 pm

@141 Don (of the AB NDP)

The Alberta NDP didn’t make hollow promises about rewarding the lazy and shiftless.

No, the promises were not hollow; this was their intention all along!

#214 IHCTD9 on 01.29.16 at 1:43 pm

Why and at what cost?

“Debt bad” how come some humans are hard wired with this narrow-minded imperative?

This isn’t like your dad or your wife has a gambling problem and is 5 million in debt; we’re a sovereign nation with bigger problems than a few billion of our own dollars in debt.

Triple the deficit if it brings prosperity!

We tried penny pinching federal austerity and we tried kowtowing to the corporate crowd for 10 years… things are worse now!

More of the same would be insanity; give your head a shake, your one single thought is blocking your vision.
___________________________________________

Wow, a few billion in debt?

My “one single thought” is the ring of power. Money controls the advancement of everything on the planet. Debt will need to be paid back, with interest. Every year Billions go into servicing debt – at what point would you agree that it’s too much? It is already past 10% of gross revenue in some Provinces.

A couple years ago, Ontario spent more on debt interest than the entire ministry of community and social services budget – yes, the whole Ministry, and the entire budget. Federal debt servicing consumes the equivalent of all GST revenue collected – all of it. In a year or two, Federal debt servicing will total more than the entire payout for Old Age Security benefits that help sustain many Canadian seniors. The cumulative governments of Canada, including local; spent more on debt interest than all public spending on K-Gr.8 and Gr.9-12 education COMBINED.

Idunno, you seeing any good reasons here to avoid increasing debt?

What happens when rates go up?

Would you like a list of sovereign nations that have gone bankrupt?

#215 Aggregator on 01.29.16 at 1:44 pm

#35 JG – CMHC would have us believe that the possibility of a Vancouver RE correction is only moderate. Are they trying to stave off panic?

FYI, CMHC also buys properties, that is, it is an active flipper bidder in the market.

 Royal Bank of Canada v. Miller

[5]   Although the home was actively marketed, by May 2012 there was only one unqualified offer received.  It was $1.575 million which was consistent with the assessed value of the property being between $1.13 and $1.49 million as well as an appraisal obtained by the bank.  The offer was made by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.  The only other offer received was for less money and was to some extent qualified.  It was not pursued.  The bank sought approval of the sale to CMHC.  The Millers relied on what, for the most part, were stale-dated appraisals they had obtained which suggested the home could be sold for substantially more than CMHC offered if it were marketed for a much longer time. The master found those appraisals unreliable and determined the offer to be fair.  She approved the completion of the sale and ordered that the home be vacated by noon 28 May 2012.

What I'd like to know is why CMHC has to participate in a public market and how bidding up >$1 million properties is not a conflict of interest to its housing affordability mandate. And does CMHC list its proprieties for sale to international buyers, because if so, that would explain why they have no interest in tracking actual foreign property transactions, especially when CMHC itself has close ties to organizations like the Ministry of Construction and other state-owned companies whose many members are looking for a place to park their cash.

#216 MF on 01.29.16 at 1:47 pm

#198 Bat Flipper on 01.29.16 at 11:51 am

Agreed. Lots of previous buyers now upgrading. Each time adding a little more debt. They don’t get worried about debt since the monthlies are the same, and this debt has given them nothing but more money so far so why not? Most of these people feel totally invincible from what I see. In the GTA at least. Lots of arrogance as well. These people will quickly discount the mounting evidence that this market is way overvalued. They almost sound like realtors but they are not.

#117 common sense on 01.28.16 at 11:09 pm

Crazy. To all these people citing the Chinese factor, back in the 80’s there was the Japanese factor. Everyone believed Japanese buyers were buying RE en mass and driving up prices. How’d that work out?

#104 WUL on 01.28.16 at 10:07 pm

Ouch. That’s crappy for your son. I posted on here a while back about this fantasy I have about quitting my white collar profession and becoming a tradesman. The posters you mentioned (SWL etc.) provided great insight to me as well. I’m sure your son will be okay. Good learning experience for him while he is young (as crappy as it is).

MF

#217 MF on 01.29.16 at 2:00 pm

#48 Courtney Hanson on 01.28.16 at 7:35 pm

Great job! I am like that too. We are definitely in the minority though. Be prepared for the normal feelings of jealousy as your friends shove their new car, house, clothes, vacations in your face. Remember Facebook is a lie.

#84 BG on 01.28.16 at 9:12 pm

The refugee situation is an unmitigated disaster. Rising right wing sentiment, xenophobia, religious intolerance, threat of terrorism. To be honest, I don’t see a good future for Europe.

MF

#218 Suede on 01.29.16 at 2:01 pm

The easy assumption is that oil is low because supply is high.

Partially true.

The real reason is FX.

The USD is a beast compared to everything. Everything has gone down in value relative to it. Currencies, gold, sugar, oil

FX is the king of the world, and the USD is on the throne. When USD starts getting weaker, then you’ll see oil prices rise.

Carry on

#219 Noel on 01.29.16 at 2:21 pm

#186 replyingtoatroll

It seems that most people can’t get past the idea that a country with a central bank is analogous to a household with a bunch of credit cards.

#220 Noel on 01.29.16 at 2:31 pm

#213 IHCTD9

I’d love to see a list of sovereign nations that have gone bankrupt.

Or just one that is similar to Canada – IE, industrialized, top 20 largest economies in the world, no wars being fought on the home front.

#221 Smoking Man on 01.29.16 at 2:33 pm

Must see for anyone that wants to tap the power of the UCC

https://youtu.be/77LEblQNI94

#222 Leo Trollstoy on 01.29.16 at 2:36 pm

It appears they both lied. — Garth

but only 1 will preside over the economic collapse of ab and canada

#223 Leo Trollstoy on 01.29.16 at 2:38 pm

Grouping Toronto with Saskatoon and Regina,,, Really…???

lol low bar. just remember, low bar

#224 Leo Trollstoy on 01.29.16 at 2:41 pm

#179 Yanniel on 01.29.16 at 9:37 am

well said. IT booming. if a person can’t get a job as an IT wage slave, they have low bar life skills. seriously. so ez

#225 TurnerNation on 01.29.16 at 2:47 pm

MF imagine working blue collar job. No squeaky voiced or lisping HR person fake smiling at you.
Blue collar can cat call and holler at passers-by.
And show up hungover or slightly impared.
Wear what want, swear and spit at will.
Sounds like heaven!

#226 Leo Trollstoy on 01.29.16 at 2:47 pm

Its hard to find good programmers. Part of the problem is there is crazy demand for talent.

very true. echoed by many top execs.

http://content.randstad.ca/hubfs/STEM_2015/Randstad_STEM_WP_EN.pdf

we not talking about people who can’t land hr interviews. those ppl aren’t talent. those are low bar candidates w no life skills. not considered talent. life punishes the dumb. and not being able to get or pass an hr interview is a message from life. sorry.

tech talent hard to find. big demand. losers need not apply (won’t matter anyway)

#227 Leo Trollstoy on 01.29.16 at 2:51 pm

#124 For those about to flop… on 01.28.16 at 11:41 pm

hehe just a hint: ppl who have tech backgrounds but can’t land a tech interview aren’t smart. low bar life skills. lots of talk, no success. shhh

#228 Darthtaco on 01.29.16 at 2:51 pm

I have been watching this house in Edmonton for the past year it was originally selling for $360,000 (forget the exact number may have been more). The price has been reduced from 350 to 325 and now is 299,000. Prices are going way down still waiting for the nadir but this is just the start.
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16533242/7720-158-Street-Edmonton-Alberta-T5R2B7-Patricia-Heights

#229 Freedom First on 01.29.16 at 2:56 pm

#114 Smoking Man

Not interested in her skills in the kitchen.

#230 down and out on 01.29.16 at 3:01 pm

http://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/home
Just wow A contractor clued me in about million dollar assessments why pay taxes till sale if over 65 .

#231 For those about to flop... on 01.29.16 at 3:17 pm

#226 Leo Trollstoy on 01.29.16 at 2:51 pm
#124 For those about to flop… on 01.28.16 at 11:41 pm

hehe just a hint: ppl who have tech backgrounds but can’t land a tech interview aren’t smart. low bar life skills. lots of talk, no success. shhh

////////////////////////////////
Leo ,you are an abrasive troll ,but you stay the same and have your favourite target.
Mark , on the other hand is a polite troll but none the less he is still a troll.
He answers every rhetorical question ,sticks his nose into other peoples conversations and thinks every topic has to go through him.
People bait him by asking him questions just so they can laugh at him.
The last time Garth asked us if we should ban him I did not comment ,I thought I would leave it to the masses.
The next time this happens I will vote YES without doubt.
As I wrote in the original post he spoils it for the rest of us and was the reason I did not comment for over a week as I was so disgusted by his behaviour.
He is beyond repair….broken record who spouts the same ten lies over and over.
If you want to be the star ,start your own blog…pretty simple stuff really .

M41BC

#232 Smoking Man on 01.29.16 at 3:19 pm

#205 No Brainer on 01.29.16 at 12:51 pm
#182 Smoking Man on 01.29.16 at 9:53 am
#178 Yanniel on 01.29.16 at 9:37 am
I agree that most jobs are in peril; but people in the IT and programming industry are doing quite well, at least in Toronto that is.
IT and software development jobs are quite on demand (just a do a quick search on monster.ca). I know this first hand because I am a software developer myself, my wife is also a software developer, and most of my friends are software developers.

Finding a new job in Toronto’s IT industry is like switching underwear.

I have seen many IT companies lately with presence in both the US and Canada closing some US office in favor of the Canadian offices. Why? Simple, we are 70% cheaper dollar wise. This actually happened with my company. My office in Toronto is growing while other US offices are being merged or closed all together.
Patrick should stop whining and should just go ahead finding another IT job. If Vancouver cannot provide it; then he should move to Toronto. Or maybe closer, Seattle will provide all the IT work in the world.
……………..

Very true, But the big money is made in NYC, Boston Charlotte, Connecticut.
Make double what CAD companies pay, and you get a 1.4 multiplier when you convert it to CAD.
No brainer if you ask me.
Why are you still here?
:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Yes Smoking Man why are you still here what happened to the Great Boston Gig? Apparently you are still here in the GTA sluffing off your shtick.
No brainer if you ask me!
……………………

I’m the Toronto Office, Paid in USD and work from home.

Sweat deal if you ask me.

#233 Shawn on 01.29.16 at 3:25 pm

You Don’t own any resources

Still amazes me that we ship our raw resources out, timber, rock, tar, wheat…very little secondary or tertiary manufacturing.

***************************************
It is not “our” resources that get sold. By the time they were sold they were owned by private companies.

Keep dreaming that there is some “we” if you want.

Actually no, it’s every man for himself. The strong prosper.

Also free trade is good, always.

#234 DON on 01.29.16 at 3:28 pm

@ Mark

Then there’s outsourcing which has had a devastating effect on long-term IT careers in many medium and large businesses. Even smaller businesses, in many cases, are well served ditching their “IT guy” and buying as many “cloud” services as needed. – See more at: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/28/shudders/#comments
****************
I am at the forefront of IT/outsourcing and agree with you. But then again there comes a point when outsourcing your operations or buying cloud services becomes more expensive or risky. I have seen IT contracts with yearly increases in fees (supposedly to keep up with the cost of inflation). IT is about constant change, new technology, new mediums and we have always had to adapt/adjust as the industry evolves.

#235 45north on 01.29.16 at 3:32 pm

Aggregator: CMHC also buys properties

this case was brought up on this blog previously. It was very much on my mind when I posted: My idea is that CMHC is in the business of not making announcements. Too.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/27/deja-vu-baby/#comments

First of all I’m assuming CMHC ensured the mortgage and I’m thinking the Royal Bank did not file a claim with CMHC so CMHC bought the property to avoid a claim.

There is a Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure but I don’t think there is any Ministry of Construction.

http://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/governments/organizational-structure/ministries-organizations/ministries/transportation-and-infrastructure

#236 45north on 01.29.16 at 3:36 pm

ensured = insured

#237 HCWTT on 01.29.16 at 3:38 pm

#220 Smoking Man on 01.29.16 at 2:33 pm

Must see for anyone that wants to tap the power of the UCC

https://youtu.be/77LEblQNI94
———————————————————-
I don’t get it Smoky whats this fascination with Nikola Tesla? His work is light years beyond your technical engineering comprehension. The guy was quite intelligent but a dud when it came to making money. Probably the only good thing to come out of Serbia in a century.

#238 Smoking Man on 01.29.16 at 3:42 pm

It’s the Ether Field.

Going to make a Fortune Tonight at Senica.

Out with the Einstein strategy.

Hello Tesla’s Ether.

#239 DON on 01.29.16 at 3:45 pm

People use to say that about dot.com stocks. Pretty funny. — Garth
***********************
Perhaps the above statement needs to be mentioned in the header of every blog posting.

#240 Rainclouds on 01.29.16 at 3:45 pm

“I’m pretty shocked, actually,” John said. “It just unveils a huge, intricate network. It also begets the question of what money fuels the Vancouver real estate industry? And in what light does it show how well the real estate profession is policed in this city?”

http://www.theprovince.com/business/follow+money+vancouver+real+estate+market+concerns+spring/11683456/story.html

#241 Smoking Man on 01.29.16 at 3:50 pm

#236 HCWTT on 01.29.16 at 3:38 pm
#220 Smoking Man on 01.29.16 at 2:33 pm

Must see for anyone that wants to tap the power of the UCC

https://youtu.be/77LEblQNI94
———————————————————-
I don’t get it Smoky whats this fascination with Nikola Tesla? His work is light years beyond your technical engineering comprehension. The guy was quite intelligent but a dud when it came to making money. Probably the only good thing to come out of Serbia in a century.
……………….

Trying to understand myself. I’ve done incredible things with no training whatsoever. I call markets perfectly six months ahead of time, and I’m right 98% of the time.

I’ve built swap prices and tools that make my traders millions, yet I don’t really know how to explain what a swap is.

I’m 1000% certain regarding my theory on Universal Shrinkage.

How is this possible.

Blog dog sent me a link about him regarding aliens speak to him. That was it for me. They talk to me too, via the UCC.

Back to school.

University of Google.

#242 Julia on 01.29.16 at 3:51 pm

#234 45north

“First of all I’m assuming CMHC ensured the mortgage and I’m thinking the Royal Bank did not file a claim with CMHC so CMHC bought the property to avoid a claim.”

I was wondering how that works as well but CMHC doesn’t insure mortgages for more than $1million. So it can’t be direct insurance, maybe through a blanket portfolio insurance? Not sure if there are mortgage limits on those.

#243 Rexx Rock on 01.29.16 at 3:58 pm

You gotta love the plunger team to come in and do the right thing.Tsx up over 1200 points in 7 days.Awesome short squeeze,get ready to sell your long position soon just like the big boys will do.Also,thanks to Japan to go negative zirp,all central bankers will follow eventually.

#244 Smoking Man on 01.29.16 at 4:04 pm

Jesus Christ I finally get.

Ether,

think of the entire Universe as a sheet of paper everything is connected, positivity breeds positivity in your immediate world, negativity does the opposite.

Why some allways win and others always lose. It’s all in the head.

Why do so many people get cured of illness by smoking weed. It’s not the weed, it’s the happy thoughts resulting from the weed that fixes things.

And you can apply that to investing.

Note to Shirley Valentine and her sister, if you approach me tonight, don’t worry there is no skunk at Stir.

Just a super charged happy bastard.

#245 Bobby13 on 01.29.16 at 4:07 pm

Hello bail-ins. Mabe negative interate rate? Good post Master G.

#246 MF on 01.29.16 at 4:33 pm

#224 TurnerNation on 01.29.16 at 2:47 pm

Yessir. Swearing at full volume too. Not the usual scared under-the-breath office version of swearing.

MF

#247 Steerage Bilge on 01.29.16 at 4:40 pm

#237 Smoking Man on 01.29.16 at 3:42 pm

It’s the Ether Field.

Going to make a Fortune Tonight at Senica.

Out with the Einstein strategy.

Hello Tesla’s Ether.

Dark matter and dark energy….

#248 understood by few on 01.29.16 at 5:10 pm

@ #190 The Other Chris
What are people’s thoughts about trying to get into the computer programming industry in Toronto as an older adult (late ’30s)?

As in you are coming from elsewhere in Canada or as a new career?

If you are coming from elsewhere and are good, you’ll have no problem.

Since you call it programming, not software engineering or development, I’m guessing you are thinking of a career change. Age will be an issue if you are new to it, and if you have no background, good luck. Who wants to take on an adult as a jr dev? Plus, it’s not easy. Someone with a physics or math background could jump into software dev, your average person doesn’t have the aptitude to be good at it. Some will disagree, but those people either aren’t in the know or suck at coding.

If you have no background and are thinking of getting into it, take an online into course (e.g. coursera). They have a good intro course in Python. If you can’t hack that then your career change choice is a bad one. If you enjoy it, try something harder.

Of the few people I know that code (well) without an Engineering or CSc degree: 2 are genius level IQ and don’t have real degrees (e.g. one started university at 16 then dropped out), one has a PhD in Physics another has advanced math degrees. All started programming young (teens) except the physics guy. He was in his 70s when I knew him and I think he started coding during his masters (which would have been punch cards at the university).

The majority of the shitty people (that can make it through an interview with HR) had CSc or Engineering degrees. A degree doesn’t guarantee competency. It’s amazing how many people with degrees (even masters) can’t make it through a simple technical interview question. Something like pick the matching numbers out of two lists. This is easy CSc 100 level stuff.

The smart people ask questions: “So do you expect the result of this intersection to be a set or multiset?” “Favour speed or memory footprint?” “A pseudo code algorithm or is there a specific language? What about using tools built into a language?” Solving the problem wasn’t an issue, they just wanted to narrow down the options. Stupid people sit there and go “Ummmmm.” Mediocre people start writing a solution without clarifying what is wanted.

#249 Nagraj on 01.29.16 at 5:25 pm

What happened in the last eight days for Haruhiko Kuroda to go from no NIRP to yes NIRP? Sumpin’ change his mind? I read where the Gnomes vote was a close 5/4.

And what was this particular one day wonder about: Oil production will be cut! Practically moments later: No damn way will oil production be cut!

And then not that long ago we had sell restrictions on Chinese stocks set to expire on a Friday – well the day before, on Thursday, they was extended; then we had “circuit breakers” kick in and once they kicked in, they was promptly disarranged.

Aint everybody just so cool calm and collected though, eh?

[Doug Porter on Canadian GDP (quoted by CBC): ” … struggling … most vividly highlighted by the fact that GDP has risen a microscopic 0.2% in the past 12 months combined”.]

I would like to vividly highlight that alla this is jes because and only because YOUSE PEOPLE won’t work for free for a year, and keep makin’ bad financial decisions.

#250 Bram on 01.30.16 at 1:33 pm

#176 JamesA on 01.29.16 at 9:12 am
You want to work at a fintech place? Write a stock market simulator webapp

OK, Here’s mine!
http://stolk.org/tmp/

Not exactly a sim, but analyzer/screener that can run with the best of them! (Currently uses old data.) Just need to partner up with a site owner, to find a home for it.

Bram

#251 Bram on 01.30.16 at 1:46 pm

#165 Jane Simpson on 01.29.16 at 8:12 am
Japan has gone negative on stock markets for decades now,

For a fair comparison, you should adjust for –wait for it– deflation!

I assume 2016 Yen is worth a lot more than a 1990 Yen.

And I don’t know the situation with Nikkei dividends. Maybe they are much higher than TSX’s? If so, a Nikkei portfolio may not be so disastrous as it appears at first glance.

Bram

#252 laughing stock on 01.30.16 at 2:17 pm

daily mail’s take on the point grey home

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3423921/86-year-old-rundown-Vancouver-residence-listed-2-4million.html

#253 Calgarian on 01.30.16 at 2:48 pm

$6 m teardown in VanCity.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Bulldozer+bait+million+mansion+just+another+Vancouver+tear+down/11686111/story.html?__lsa=2508-7eb6

#254 RW_Z on 01.30.16 at 3:18 pm

“local to local” = the money touched the soil for a little bit of time, so now it’s local. And yet somehow this is a taboo discussion because of skin colour.

If the colours of the people were reversed, I bet you it would be “racist” to say that the white people *weren’t* a major source of the money.

#255 gut check on 01.30.16 at 4:16 pm

Thanks, Smokey. I agree – rumor mill at work. Maybe straight up algos now – plant a viral news story and let the computers do the rest.

Mark – why am I not surprised that you didn’t take me up on my invitation? It’s just another facet of the upside down funhouse you live in – comment when your opinion isn’t requested and remain silent when it is.

too funny. :)