Not that easy

PUSH modified

Bank puts rate on ice - for now. Dollar pops. Link here.

Update: Not a pretty morning for… anything. Oil collapsed further (down at this moment almost 3%), and the petro chill has run through global stock markets, taking some into growly bear territory. The Bank of Canada has made its decision, blasting the dollar higher by half a cent, while warning of more grief around the bend, just as T2 takes to the stage in Davos to talk up the future. With the central bank decision behind us, it’s now up to Ottawa’s first budget (likely in March) to promise billions in government stimulus spending. That may buy the economy some time, but even a great selfie can’t fix this:

OIL CRUSH

Will Poodle Poloz rip rates Wednesday morning? Come here at 10:01 am ET and find out. But even he if he does dip a quarter point (the odds seem 50/50), there’s about the same chance as you making out with Amal Clooney that the banks will pass it through.

You might recall the last time this happened, in July. Poloz was selling but the lenders weren’t buying, eventually dropping their primes only a fraction of the amount and leaving home loans intact. This time they’re even more entrenched. Dropping lending rates only squeezes bank margins at a time when crappy financial markets and an oil death spiral are already nibbling away at profitability.

As for mortgages, everybody knows that Canada will eventually be following the US Fed higher once commodities stabilize (Credit Suisse says $70 oil by December). Already the banks have a massive exposure to an inflated housing market, so lending even more to moisters at insane rates – just because the Bank of Canada has no stones – is imprudent. Bankers may be carnivorous, rapacious and omnivorous, but they also know when to pull in the blood funnel.

Bottom line: Wednesday morning may mean little. But come by anyway. We’re having bacon cheese donuts and tummy rubs.

***

You may have noticed some classic Boomer-baiting going on around this pathetic blog lately, apparently brought on by the deaths of Bowie and Frey. Imagine that. Attacked by people who buy Justin Bieber music or didn’t know Taylor Swift is actually a Japanese robot.

The kids are lefties and think they invented social conscience while we just grabbed the cash. They want that too, of course. So we have conflict. Well, we wrinklies may be oxygen-sucking fossils in thirsty underwear, but we’re sure less stunned than our spawn. At least according to TD.

The bankers did a little online survey on RRSPs, the tax shelter which massively favours the wealthy, a fact T2 and his youthful groupies so far have not cottoned on to. That may be because they’ve no idea of what it all means. For example the bankers found millennials (18 to 34 years of age) have assumed an RRSP is just like a tax-free savings account – so 60% of them think the money can be taken out to pay for child care expenses. Over half believe you can use an RRSP to buy a second home to rent out, and 52% think it’s a thing to use to finance a car purchase.

Only half have heard of the home buyer’s plan. Two-thirds have no idea an RRSP can be used to finance another university degree after you lose your job as a barista because you only have an MA.

Your music sucks, too.

***

After his full cabinet meeting at the swanky Algonquin Hotel in southern New Brunswick, the prime minister was asked about the new budget that Po’ Bill is tasked with coughing up. It’ll be great, he said. When asked how much the deficit will be, he praised his finance minister. When Po’ Bill was asked the same question, he walked away.

This is the New Clarity. Live with it.

Meanwhile in Ottawa the non-political Parliamentary Budget Officer was being a lot more forthright about what the current situation (and house lust) is doing to household finances. So, here’s the scorecard: as 2015 came to an end debt reached a new nosebleed level of 171% of disposable income. That’s the highest in 26 years, since they started counting such things. (Prior to 1990 apparently we were not idiots.)

To put this in context, debt is growing faster here than in any other major western country. Households are also now more indebted than in all other G7 nations. “We project that household debt will continue to rise, reaching 174 per cent of disposable income in late 2016, before returning close to current levels by the end of 2020,” said the report. “Based on this projection, the financial vulnerability of the average household would rise to levels beyond historical experience.”

Beyond experience. If that sounds vaguely apocalyptic, you get it. Were it not for emergency interest rates, the pain of carrying this debt would rise from merely irritating to the equivalent of listening to all Adele albums in sequence.

That is what Wednesday morning’s all about. Don’t be late.

346 comments ↓

#1 Damien McGrath on 01.19.16 at 6:14 pm

Furst!

#2 Rick on 01.19.16 at 6:15 pm

Thank you Garth for all your hard work and dedication. Pumping out blog posts every day is tough.

You deserve an Order of Canada.

I love you.

OK, thanks. Here ya go. — Garth

#3 Canadian on 01.19.16 at 6:18 pm

You usually align with Ambrose on your points but he’s diverged from you massively this past 2 months any thoughts on Mr.White’s report to the WEF?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12108569/World-faces-wave-of-epic-debt-defaults-fears-central-bank-veteran.html

#4 not 1st on 01.19.16 at 6:19 pm

Garth, I hear T2 has a few bill on tap for some immediate stimulus spending in AB/SK.

Have you heard what it entails?

Back in 1994 chretien and crew were upgrading mostly public works like water and sewer services.

#5 SJ on 01.19.16 at 6:19 pm

The pain in Sussex NB:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/potash-piccadilly-mine-suspended-1.3409831

Colleague at work just bought a house there, commuting to Saint John, and is working Oil and Gas. See how long that lasts…

#6 Ronh on 01.19.16 at 6:20 pm

May you live in interesting times.
Chinese proverb
Are we there yet?

#7 Sheane Wallace on 01.19.16 at 6:22 pm

As for mortgages, everybody knows that Canada will eventually be following the US Fed higher once commodities stabilize (Credit Suisse says $70 oil by December).
……………………………………
By December 2036.

By December 2016 it would be around $ 15-$25. Unless Fed introduces negative interest rates.

We know Poloz will introduce negative rates for CAD, he said it and was proud of it, the guy found new tool..
as his tools were too small and insufficient…

So expect cut by the poodle (done deal if you ask me, knowing his brain capabilities) and loonie diving again.

Somebody said in the yesterday’s post that this could be just the beginning for the loonie.

I don’t see how going deeper in nominal NIRP, running huge deficits and with oil skydiving loonie could stabilize. It could be but in the .5x-es. Temporarily.

I would love to be proven wrong.

#8 The American on 01.19.16 at 6:23 pm

It’s a rate cut come tomorrow morning.

#9 Mr.Slate on 01.19.16 at 6:23 pm

Working in the Insolvency industry…we had an incredible uptick in December filings!! And our number one demographic segment that filed….seniors, no equity, no cash and loads of debt…

#10 BS on 01.19.16 at 6:24 pm

beyond historical experience

That must mean ‘sunny ways’ are just around the corner.

#11 AB Boxster on 01.19.16 at 6:25 pm

Garth,
I know you’ve been trying to fix the financial knowledge of the sweet social justice youngsters but I wish we could really do something about about their music.

Blech!

#12 espressobob on 01.19.16 at 6:25 pm

Us savers & investors seem to on the endangered species list.

It’s hard to believe the % of individuals who rack up so much debt. Business people too.

Scary.

#13 Mean Gene on 01.19.16 at 6:26 pm

Party time…. Pee Ah Ar Tee Why… Why?? Why not!!

#14 Dr. Talc on 01.19.16 at 6:26 pm

I brain tells me that the Bowie and Frey checkouts are fake events, cash in while you’re alive and enjoy the uptick in the brand. The recording ‘industry’ is dead. Think- who owns the publishing?, think Bowie bonds.
The Lemmy event smells real.

#15 polecat on 01.19.16 at 6:26 pm

Bacon and cheese donuts, you had me there Garth.

#16 Canadian on 01.19.16 at 6:27 pm

#4 not 1st on 01.19.16 at 6:19 pm

My guess would be the Green line in Calgary and the ring-road.

Probably won’t see a penny of it outside Calgary/Edmonton.

#17 Prairieboy43 on 01.19.16 at 6:28 pm

Gilligan + Ginger, running the Country. Where’s Skipper when you need him?

PB43

#18 blokexistentialist on 01.19.16 at 6:31 pm

Thank you, Garth, because it’s true. Their music does suck.

#19 Chris in Nanaimo on 01.19.16 at 6:32 pm

#270 Cheese on 18/1/16

‘and am watching it all disappear while buying power goes to hell. I have no hope anymore…’

Drama Queen….You’re 34, you’re in it for the long term…

#20 Frank on 01.19.16 at 6:36 pm

Why is he ‘Poodle’?

#21 crossbordershopper on 01.19.16 at 6:38 pm

i think rates will be cut by .25, he will hedge his bets. and the banks will drop by .15 just to call it even. just like last time. we are truely pushing on a string at this stage.
dollar on its way to 62.50 perfect metric currency.
love it go to the usa now. i know we were all born here, like ted cruz cant change that, but hey we can go somewhere else and get paid in real money and have a standard of living that is reasonable. living in minus 30 in saskatchewan where you have to plug in your car like a toaster is well, bs. to say the lease.

#22 Shane on 01.19.16 at 6:39 pm

No rate cut…

#23 Jimmy on 01.19.16 at 6:40 pm

Tenth!!!

#24 Jeffrey of Saskatoon on 01.19.16 at 6:40 pm

Enough with this ‘sunny ways’ business! Always keep the Sun to your back or to your right as to keep it in the eyes of your opponent(s).

#25 Rural Rick on 01.19.16 at 6:40 pm

Backlash from the kids to us boomers. Hey, fair enough we created them. I would be pissed too, if everyone told me I could be a rock star.
Unrealized expectations.
We told them anything was possible. If you can dream it. You can do it.
However, we neglected teaching them basic human logistics.

#26 Ex-Cowtown on 01.19.16 at 6:42 pm

I doubt that oil will be $70 by December, but I think we’re finally seeing the blood running in the streets that will precede stabilization. My 2 cents is that oil is massively oversold now, well below the cost of production in every country but Saudi Arabia. This can’t last.

Fill up your tank while you can!

#27 DON on 01.19.16 at 6:43 pm

2nd post – correcting last one – can’t get it right today.

#2 Rick on 01.19.16 at 6:15 pm

Thank you Garth for all your hard work and dedication. Pumping out blog posts every day is tough.

You deserve an Order of Canada.

I love you.

OK, thanks. Here ya go. — Garth
*********************************

What information do I need to provide in Garth’s nomination?

As you complete the nomination form, you will be asked for the following information:

1) The candidate’s name and contact information
Your name and contact information
2) An explanation of what the candidate has accomplished and of how this has made Canada stronger
3) The names of and contact information for three individuals who know the candidate and can speak to his/her contribution to Canada.

I’m in. But i say for #3 – we provide a ton of names to make the point.

#28 Hotdogs from Heaven on 01.19.16 at 6:44 pm

#9 Mr.Slate on 01.19.16 at 6:23 pm

Working in the Insolvency industry…we had an incredible uptick in December filings!! And our number one demographic segment that filed….seniors, no equity, no cash and loads of debt…

————————————————–

That sounds scary. Could you elaborate a little more on this like the Province or City you work in and what kind of dollar amounts you’re seeing in these folks debts?

#29 Arse on 01.19.16 at 6:45 pm

I do not think there will be a rate cut tomorrow.

#30 Tuxedo on 01.19.16 at 6:47 pm

What’s all the fuss on this blog about cauliflower? Just in Save-on-Foods in Edmonton on sale $2.99 for Grade A.

Torontians I smell an arbitrage opportunity…

#31 Jeeves on 01.19.16 at 6:49 pm

Sunny ways of sunny boys
Anybody spots a cauliflower?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iU7JrcCO94g

One of the best TV series

#32 Lulu on 01.19.16 at 6:50 pm

I bet heavily on raising rate. See you at 10 tomorrow~

#33 Rick on 01.19.16 at 6:53 pm

Debt “171% of disposable income”. Hate that it includes mortgages. Would prefer if that was stripped out.

#34 Intuitive Missus on 01.19.16 at 6:53 pm

#9 Mr. Slate

That is truly disturbing. I am a retired senior. We are not rich but we have no debt of any kind. From what you have said, it seems young people are not the only ones’ that need Finance 101.

We are not financial geniuses but we did have good discipline. We put our children through post-secondary education – all financed by RESP’s. They also have no debt and now realize and appreciate how lucky they are as their friends still owe thousands of $ in student loans. We have financial assets that we saved during the 40+ years of working. We own our house outright. We also own an income property in a warm sunny climate that we purchased when the C$ was worth $1.06. We collect US$ from the renters, declare the income and pay tax on it. When I read about the amount of debt people are carrying I just shake my head. What in God’s name did they do with the money they made while they were working. When I was working I always had my savings taken directly off my paycheque and deposited in a savings account or invested. That way I never actually got it to spend. Savings was treated as an expense like any other bill. It is a great way to discipline yourself. You can’t spend it if you don’t get it.

You have to make your money work for you instead of the other way around. And you don’t have to be a millionaire to do that. You just have to start somewhere while you have time on your side. That worked for us.

#35 For those about to flop... on 01.19.16 at 6:54 pm

Well girls on the blog…Julie k,Julia ,not tonight honey ,gut check,Linda, Estrella and co…does this happen in Canada too?
I’ve never noticed it except for maybe the jeans.
You girls get ripped off on some clothing items but products because of feminine colour?
My wife’s never brought up this issue either.

P.s . Not interested in Your opinion Daisy Mae as your a grumpy old gumboot.

M41BC

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6870984/High-street-shops-charging-women-twice-as-much-for-goods-as-men.html

#36 Beanz on 01.19.16 at 6:54 pm

Is XEG a good vulch? What are your recommends dogs?

#37 Jin dave on 01.19.16 at 6:54 pm

That’s J (not the right name) in Georgetown . She was Elsa at kids bday party.

#38 me again on 01.19.16 at 6:55 pm

Bieber is a woman, there is a youtube proving it

#39 Hatsune Miku for VP…. on 01.19.16 at 6:56 pm

damn, all those 65+ rockers are dropping like flies…..

if I were you GT I’d lay off the bacon cheese donuts and stick with the tummy rubs….

If oil goes to $70 (USD not CDN, haha) by the end of the year then I predict a 15 handle for the TSX….cause fundamentals matter, eh…

#40 Nanaimo Bar on 01.19.16 at 6:57 pm

“Bacon Cheese Donuts” – I started salivating at first but it was quick SnapBack
“Taylor Swift is actually a Japanese robot.” – I’m in tears.
“you lose your job as a barista because you only have an MA.”- stop it now
“listening to all Adele albums in sequence.” – more painful than the Leonard Cohen trilogy

That is why I luv coming here. I get a few great laughs a day. I have to come back and the read the articles twice with a serious face, just to make sure that I understand everything.

In unrelated humour on Bloomberg

Sarah Palin – really?

I’m sure The Donald was not happy with her endorsement. Donald is shaking his head and saying, “Please don’t show up in Iowa”

From what dark corner of the America dream did that she wolf step from? – Quote Canadian Comedian Ron James

Does anybody know how to install the Sarah Palin News Feed on Bloomberg?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-01-19/sarah-palin-s-endorsement-of-donald-trump-may-not-matter-in-iowa

Americans will luv this clip of Canadian Comedian Ron James and his rant about Sarah Palin

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=f98TaKJomnk

#41 Paul on 01.19.16 at 6:59 pm

I saw the rate cut coming it has a mustache !!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icCmo2p6w8g

#42 Freeman on 01.19.16 at 7:03 pm

That woman pushing the car = looks like she’s dressed up to be ‘ELSA’ from the Disney movie ‘Frozen’.

Everything has value these days, but when a product becomes over supplied then sometimes the owner has to PAY someone to take if off of their hands.

I have read that if oil keeps falling, soon Alberta oil producers will be PAYING oil refiners to take their oil. That’s right, the tar-sands producers will be getting a NEGATIVE PRICE for their oil, just like what is happening now in North Dakota, like this article states:

“OIL COMPANIES CANNOT EVEN GIVE IT AWAY FOR FREE, NOW THEY HAVE TO PAY”:

http://www.businessinsider.com/market-where-oil-selling-for-050-2016-1#comments

You know, I’ll buy a nice condo in Alberta, when someone pays me $5,000 to take it off of their hands.
(with the condition that there is No extra charges or fees after that, other than yearly taxes.)

#43 Keep Cutting Rates on 01.19.16 at 7:03 pm

I hope they do cut rates and don’t stop until they reach the new lower bound of negative 0.5. This will surely decimate the loonie even further and destroy our purchasing power in ways not yet experienced in this country… When the paycheque-to-paychequers who bought $750,000 townhouses can no longer affird to both eat and pay their mortgage, THEN maybe we will see a housing correction!

#44 Doug t on 01.19.16 at 7:05 pm

Cut it and let the bleeding begin already

#45 Mark on 01.19.16 at 7:05 pm

“Dropping lending rates only squeezes bank margins at a time when crappy financial markets and an oil death spiral are already nibbling away at profitability.”

This doesn’t make any sense to me. Lending margins are a function of the spread between the bank’s cost of funding, and the bank’s return on assets. In a lower rate environment, the cost of funding drops, while the return on assets also drops over time, but usually not as severely as the drop in funding costs. Additionally, the quantity of loans increases, thus increasing the bank’s bottom line.

Its the rising rate environment bankers (and the FIRE sector more broadly) should fear. Quantity of loans will drop. Spreads will compress as they are unable to raise rates fast enough to encompass their higher funding costs. Excess capacity in the sector will compress spreads. And the quality of existing credit, in many sectors will likely drop.

So while the banking elite might complain of lower rates, are they really negatively impacted? I don’t think so. We’ve mostly only had falling rates since the early 1980s apex of rates, and banks/FIRE has been one of the most profitable sectors of the economy. Obviously not sustainable over the long term, but that’s because rates cannot remain low (ie: zero is a realistic lower-bound before “monetary instability” starts happening in a significant way) and notional values drop.

#46 Victor V on 01.19.16 at 7:07 pm

Postmedia lays off staff, merges newsrooms in four cities to slash costs

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/postmedia-lays-off-staff-including-top-editors-edmonton-181255401.html

TORONTO – Postmedia is cutting approximately 90 jobs and merging newsrooms in four cities as Canada’s largest newspaper chain steps up plans to slash costs in the midst of mounting revenue losses.

The company owns two newspapers in each of the cities of Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver following its acquisition of Sun Media last year. Now those city papers will share a newsroom, although they’ll continue putting out different publications.

In an interview, Postmedia CEO Paul Godfrey said the decline in print advertising revenue since the Sun Media acquisition drove the changes.

“The business model has been disrupted,” Godfrey said. “Our goal was trying to keep the newsrooms separate at the time, but with the continuation of the decline, we thought the important thing was to keep the newspapers open and we figured out this was the best way to do it.”

#47 Randy on 01.19.16 at 7:12 pm

Eventually the strong will eat the weak.

#48 Victor V on 01.19.16 at 7:14 pm

PotashCorp shuts down New Brunswick mine amid price slump

http://www.thestar.com/business/2016/01/19/potashcorp-shuts-down-new-brunswick-mine-amid-price-slump.html

SUSSEX, N.B.—The New Brunswick economy suffered a sudden shock Tuesday when the Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan shut down its Picadilly mine for an indefinite period, eliminating up to 430 high-paying jobs.

Citing weak global markets for the fertilizer, the Saskatoon-based company (TSX:POT) said it had to cut expenses by shifting its focus to lower-cost operations in Saskatchewan.

“This is a very difficult day for our employees and our company,” PotashCorp CEO Jochen Tilk said in a statement, referring to the mine near Sussex, N.B. “We understand the significant impact to our people in New Brunswick and the surrounding communities.”

The move is expected to save the company up to $50 million in 2016, although these savings will be offset by $35 million in one-time severance costs.

The company is the world’s largest supplier of potash, which is used mainly as a fertilizer. It also produces large amounts of nitrogen and phosphates, also used as crop nutrients.

#49 Alberta Ed on 01.19.16 at 7:17 pm

Postmedia stopped publishing real newspapers eons ago. No loss, except to the unfortunate people who are losing their jobs.

#50 espressobob on 01.19.16 at 7:20 pm

#34 Beanz

Sector play! Red alert!

http://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/products/239839/ishares-sptsx-capped-energy-index-etf

Diversification through broad based indices might a better play over the long haul.

#51 Daisy Mae on 01.19.16 at 7:21 pm

“…Your music sucks, too.”

*****************

LOL Poor Garth. It must be so discouraging for you ’cause it is for me. A nation of idiots at all levels….

#52 Insanity on 01.19.16 at 7:28 pm

Yvr is nuts, a townhouse in Ladner is asking 650k when last year was 500k and still overpriced. That is 2 bridges away from vancouver proper, think about that! Everybody is blaming foreigners but nobody asked why the Majority of Vancity’s mortgage brokers met their yearly quota in july for the last year.
People here think that it’s different but my bet is that when TSHTF selfie master will save ontario and quebec first and will not give a flying whatever for indebted idiots in BC. And he might be right, people here will be shocked.
Costco, the last source of cheap veggies is cleaning the stock and will raise soon the prices. Tomorrow cauliflower will be 10$. Buy the mutual fund CLF.WR

#53 Jane Parsons on 01.19.16 at 7:28 pm

What is wrong with this TRT person. It seems TRT likes taxes so let us see, we should have a dedicated pension tax on all government workers.

A good Federal, Provincial total 75% rate looks okay to me. This way we can all love giving more money to wasteful governments, billions lost in Ehealth, Mississauga gas plants, Ornge, Hydro One, Pan Am Games and so on and so on.

Democracy is a myth in Canada 2016.

#54 Nanaimo Bar on 01.19.16 at 7:28 pm

Planes and Carpets

It has been a bizarre 6 days. A Six Flags Great Adventure roller coaster ride with all the gut wrenching twists and turns. Hollywood screen writers could not make this stuff up but I’m sure that script based on a true story, is being written now.

For those of you who have taken Garth’s advice, you will be rewarded. Your sailboat is definitely going in the right direction with him behind the rudder. The winds will be filling your masts. Nothing better than just the sounds of water rippling beside the boat.

Now to the news update, Andrew Su, said, “He expects the group of 13 oil producing countries in the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) to soon come up with a coordinated plan to address the turmoil in oil markets, Su told CNBC’s The Rundown.”

Is the possible planned meeting to signal that the oil price war is ending? Or Is the possible planned meeting more about setting ground rules to which the way oil is marketed, sold and pegged?

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/19/compass-ceo-andrew-su-says-risk-of-arab-spring-may-force-saudi-arabia-opec-to-cut-oil-output.html

Rumours that a meeting is planned for February or March but source is not reliable at this time. Damn Click Bait Ads.

Is oil following the USD, or is the USD following oil? Or is oil following nothing and the USD is following nothing? Lol

I guess the button pushers only know the answer to all these questions. Lol

#55 Musty Basement Dweller on 01.19.16 at 7:29 pm

Considering the out of control personal debt issues and real estate bubble in at least two major cities should we be worried about our investment exposure to the Canadian banks?

#56 MSM-Free Zone on 01.19.16 at 7:30 pm

“…..Well, we wrinklies may be oxygen-sucking fossils in thirsty underwear, but we’re sure less stunned than our spawn…….”
__________________________

Fell off my chair again this evening….and it’s only mid-January.

It’s going to be a painful year.

#57 See you at 10:01... on 01.19.16 at 7:30 pm

Bring eucalyptus oil for the tummy rub.

#9 Mr.Slate:

Revelation of revelations…just look at the 2013 Canada Revenue’s Income Distributions by Age and only 19% of the 65 yrs and older crowd make $50K or more and 50% make $25K or more which means half of them have CPP + OAS as their only source of income. Fast forward to 2015/2016 low interest rates on savings and higher inflation…obvious what would happen.

30% of the 25-34 yrs old crowd make $50K or more.

43% of the 35-44 yrs old crowd make $50K or more.

If Garth is correct about the debt load and house lust and a recession is coming as I think it is, then your market segment age distribution ought to change if the above moist Millennial and GenX numbers are accurate from Canada Revenue…enjoy.

#58 Victor V on 01.19.16 at 7:32 pm

Fort McMurray’s food bank sees record use in 2015, as real estate market cools

http://globalnews.ca/news/2464269/fort-mcmurrays-food-bank-sees-record-use-in-2015-as-real-estate-market-cools/

The Wood Buffalo Food Bank saw demand surge 72 per cent in 2015. During August and November of last year, usage was actually up over 125 per cent.

Donations have been boosted, thanks to those who could give, but hamper sizes were cut so that everyone could get something to eat.

The worry is that rising food prices and lower oil, will only make things worse.

“Certainly, we see people who have been laid off,” says Arianna Johnson of the municipality’s food bank. “But a lot of it is people who can’t afford the leave.”

She says many people have mortgages to pay and don’t have much money left over to pay for everything else.

In 2014, the average single family sold for approximately $765,000. Today, that price is down over $50,000 and the number of sales is down by over 40 per cent.

#59 John on 01.19.16 at 7:38 pm

“For their part, IceCap Asset Management says NIRP is a virtual certainty for the BOC. Here’s IceCap’s straightforward, bullet point roadmap for Canadian monetary policy:

Canadian economy to be in recession in 2016

Bank of Canada will be at 0% interest rates in 2016

Bank of Canada will be at NEGATIVE interest rates in later 2016

Bank of Canada will be PRINTING MONEY in later 2016

Ahead of Wednesday’s decision, Barclays is out with a preview and sure enough, NIRP makes a cameo.” ZEROHEDGE
Interesting read on the fact that oil exports are paid in US dollars and by lowering rates and weakening the Loonie further, wages and stuff paid for in Loonies will cost oil and others less…. Thus support for Alberta etc. Plus other thoughts.

The zero guy’s track record on Canadian content accuracy is zero. — Garth

#60 conan on 01.19.16 at 7:39 pm

Looks like Elsa is pushing the car which mean Anna is driving. Where the F is Olaf……useless , probably getting his carrot nose waxed.

#61 Linda on 01.19.16 at 7:41 pm

The debt levels are indeed concerning but – since so many have been losing their jobs would that not reflect on the debt levels? Or do those figures not take into account earned income vs. what is owed? Is there at least the possibility that these higher debt levels are (mostly) due to jobs being lost rather than people going on a severe spending spree? Oh wait – Christmas was just a month ago. That probably helped those levels increase too.

Regarding the banks, they for sure won’t be passing on any decrease or if they do, it will only be for as long as it takes for them to secure another virgin sacrifice – I mean, debtor. Got the January credit card statement which included – surprise! – a little card informing of increases to various service charges/costs. They don’t come into effect until March 1st, but still. Happy New Year, you little debt slaves. Bet Santa didn’t tell you that was coming…..

#62 Mark on 01.19.16 at 7:42 pm

“Us savers & investors seem to on the endangered species list. ”

How so? Every last dollar of debt that exists in the Canadian economy is owned by a saver and/or an investor. And given how low interest rates are, there appears to be no shortage of savings. In fact, the low rates would point to a glut.

Entrepreneurs, however, are those who are on the endangered species list. There’s lots of savings out there, just that the system has highly disincentivized their investment in non-housing (and non-O&G) asset classes.

#63 Godth on 01.19.16 at 7:43 pm

Who turned off the music? I heard there was a party, did I miss it?
http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/96307/deflation-monster-has-arrived

When is the next Fed.rate hike?

#64 jaybee on 01.19.16 at 7:44 pm

Poodle? Mr. Poloz is a smart man with a hard job. It was poor timing to start his job to be sure. Central Bankers get too much credit and too much blame in my opinion.

#65 Jane Parsons on 01.19.16 at 7:45 pm

The Bank of Canada is irrational and desperate. The Canadian dollar will be 50 cents to the U.S. dollar in 2016.

This is what happens when a society has no self control and brains regarding debt and money.

People are real stupid and have become lost in their thinking that debt can build a prosperous society and country.

#66 Renter's Revenge! on 01.19.16 at 7:45 pm

RE: PotashCorp shuts down New Brunswick mine amid price slump

Well, the important thing is that they’re looking after their shareholders’ interests, unlike some companies…

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/husky-suspends-dividend-cuts-spending-as-oil-rout-deepens

…or are they? ‘,:|

#67 jaybee on 01.19.16 at 7:47 pm

Mark,

I’m amazed at how you can put so many words together on a topic in which you have only a passing knowledge in (at best).

Does your mom know what you’re doing down there in her basement.

#68 LJ on 01.19.16 at 7:50 pm

“The Big Squeeze” is what this is going to be called. Too much house (and debt) will be countered with currency induced inflation. The outcome will be a huge dive in consumer confidence, just to get by. This will further collapse the Canadian economy from the attendant consumer collapse and corporate fallout – well beyond the O&G sector. It becomes a spiral.

You better hope that Poloz doesn’t cut tomorrow, or else we are going down the drain. A cut will kill any confidence in a Canadian recovery or expectations for the economy. It will be viewed as a desperation move. However, if he’s really gutsy, he could give us a .50 move to zero and instantly send the Canadian dollar into the 50’s. Don’t put it past these guys! They know the real numbers.

#69 Panhead on 01.19.16 at 7:53 pm

Was walking by a young feller at work once and he had some “music” blaring on a radio. I asked him if he could find a station with all commercials as it would sound better than what he had on. Gave me the “trout” look … Hope Roger Waters doesn’t have any health issues … like to see him again and again and again …

#70 Rick on 01.19.16 at 7:53 pm

Ahh, my favorite time of year. The debt slaves, rack up all kinds of frivolous debt for Christmas; and then when January and February roll around, they are crying because of the massive credit card bills. Every year is the same story. Those who don’t learn from history……
Didn’t Christmas use to be about something important???

#71 Daisy Mae on 01.19.16 at 7:54 pm

#11 AB Boxster on 01.19.16 at 6:25 pm

“Garth, I know you’ve been trying to fix the financial knowledge of the sweet social justice youngsters but I wish we could really do something about about their music. Blech!”

**************

We all complain about the music of the younger generation. Remember the fuss over the gyrating Elvis Presley? LOL

#72 lee on 01.19.16 at 7:54 pm

Garth,

What do you think about BMO’s Robo-advisor?

Same as the others. Training wheels. — Garth

#73 Gord In Vancouver on 01.19.16 at 7:57 pm

When asked how much the deficit will be, he praised his finance minister. When Po’ Bill was asked the same question, he walked away.
_________________________________________

Looks like Justin’s political honeymoon is finally coming to an end.

#74 Linda on 01.19.16 at 7:58 pm

#35 – oh yeah, serious rip off. I gave up on buying women’s sweaters in favour of men’s. These days men’s sweaters come in more colors than black, blue, grey or brown. Take cashmere. Currently debased & relatively cheap due to heavy overproduction, a women’s sweater invariably costs $50 to $100 more than the men’s sweater offered by the same manufacturer; is of lighter weight material & is often far more likely to have flaws in manufacturing. Also it might not be 100% cashmere but a blend, while the men’s sweater is 100%, no adulteration. If I go into a hair salon & ask for a trim – just a trim, no wash, no style, not a single thing more than a man would have done – I pay more for the exact same cut. Being ‘in fashion’ comes with one heck of a price tag.

#75 TRT on 01.19.16 at 7:58 pm

@52 Insanity “Yvr is nuts, a townhouse in Ladner is asking 650k when last year was 500k and still overpriced.”

—–

You haven’t seen nothing yet. The Chinese currency has just made another record high against the loonie. The foreign inflows are chasing sale prices.

2016 –> 4.50 Yuan buys 1 Loonie today.

2007 –> 8.00 Yuan bought 1 Loonie.

This will be a epic spring season to be remembered for the ages. That townhouse will be $800K before you know it.

#76 Daisy Mae on 01.19.16 at 7:59 pm

#21: “i think rates will be cut by .25, he will hedge his bets.”

*****************

WHAT is the point? I just don’t get it.
It. Just. Makes. Matters. Worse.

#77 WallOfWorry on 01.19.16 at 8:00 pm

Dumb but sincere question: why are people on this blog referencing all of these seniors who are retiring with no assets? All of the data that I have seen suggests that globally (Canada included) is experiencing the greatest wealth transfer of all time (people retiring are the wealthiest of all time) and will be passing that wealth unto the next generation?

It seems ironic to me that Garth and others point to “others” as the doom and gloom conspiracy theorists but maybe it is actually a reflection from the mirror?

Just saying.

#78 Steerage bilge on 01.19.16 at 8:02 pm

So how many think FF is in that car?

#79 dnadoc on 01.19.16 at 8:03 pm

“The Bank of Canada is irrational and desperate. The Canadian dollar will be 50 cents to the U.S. dollar in 2016.”

Had dinner tonight @ Joey Yorkdale. My cousin is going to NYC this weekend and she showed me her transaction record from scotiabank. $500US cost her $740CAD. Rate was 1.489.

#80 TRT on 01.19.16 at 8:03 pm

@Jane Parsons

Only fools would pay 75% tax rate. Here in YVR, most don’t pay anywhere near that. Most people here in Vancouver are diversified globally. Many have Real estate/business holdings overseas.

Plus the non-working class only pays max 25% as most income is the form of capital gains.

Most businesses here are cash as well (restaurants, taxi, basement suites, etc.).

Looks like you’re in the wrong field.

#81 Retired Boomer WI on 01.19.16 at 8:04 pm

“Your music sucks, too.” ….WELL Stated…

C-RAP is my favorite Canuck station. That’s ok, there are dam few good ones here, either. Outlasted my favorite music I guess, Disco sucked, rap was crap…gave up!!!

Hopefully, won’t outlast the money. If we both expire simultaneously, with $50 to give the kid, I figure it’s $49 more than he deserves. I got a “dud”…

Why, because the Boomer is in a pissy mood on this Tuesday. Why not, I feel “entitled” for a change. The market sucks wind, oil is in the dumper and headed lower thanks, to Iran being allowed to sell. Canada -our largest trading partner is being lead by a sophomore, and we are gearing up for a Presidential campaign between the big mouth, and the shyster woman!

So, can’t see any ‘blue skies’ on the horizon, unless somebody develops the fountain of youth killer app…

There is no inflation, but sizes keep shrinking and prices go up -boomer waist lines are exempt (dam it!).

The weather sucks, and I am running dangerously low on spirits, and mine NEED raising!! …this is a recording…

#82 John Dimas on 01.19.16 at 8:04 pm

I have a question for you Garth? Are you ready to pay wealth taxes and other taxes on your total investments, home and other property?

Cold. Dead. Fingers. — Garth

#83 John on 01.19.16 at 8:05 pm

“Bank of Canada to cut key rate to zero in 2016, Barclays says
The Bank of Canada last cut interest rates in July to 0.5 per cent. Swaps traders are currently pricing in a 56-per-cent chance that the central bank will cut interest rates this week. In his October update, bank Governor Stephen Poloz said the effective lower bound for Canada was about minus 0.5 per cent, raising the possibility of negative interest rates.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/bank-of-canada-to-cut-key-rate-to-zero-in-2016-barclays-says/article28249106/

Globe and Mail

#84 Julia on 01.19.16 at 8:06 pm

#35 For those about to flop…

Just see the pricing difference for a haircut.

#85 sympathy for the devil.... on 01.19.16 at 8:08 pm

#9 “And our number one demographic segment that filed….seniors, no equity, no cash and loads of debt…”

well, if they’re rockers at least they won’t have to suffer very long….

#86 For those about to flop... on 01.19.16 at 8:09 pm

#74 Linda on 01.19.16 at 7:58 pm
#35 – oh yeah, serious rip off. I gave up on buying women’s sweaters in favour of men’s. These days men’s sweaters come in more colors than black, blue, grey or brown. Take cashmere. Currently debased & relatively cheap due to heavy overproduction, a women’s sweater invariably costs $50 to $100 more than the men’s sweater offered by the same manufacturer; is of lighter weight material & is often far more likely to have flaws in manufacturing. Also it might not be 100% cashmere but a blend, while the men’s sweater is 100%, no adulteration. If I go into a hair salon & ask for a trim – just a trim, no wash, no style, not a single thing more than a man would have done – I pay more for the exact same cut. Being ‘in fashion’ comes with one heck of a price tag.

///////////////////////////
Hey Linda ,yeah I had noticed the haircut one for sure.
My haircut is $9 which is cheap for Vancouver
If my wife gets the same amount of hair chopped of the ends ,her cost is around $30.
I have to buy lunch afterwards so it works out the same!

M41BC

#87 espressobob on 01.19.16 at 8:09 pm

# Mark

Business owners in my neck of the woods are financing their operations through bank loans, HELOCs etc. Rental costs are pulverizing them further. Sales are pathetic.

Take a drive along the lakeshore in Oakville? not pretty.

Many of those retailers are importers, not exporters. Tough gig.

Some have the advantage of owning real estate and are sweating bullets when they look at their bottom line.

Toronto is no different. Maybe we are special?

Individuals who load up on more debt and wonder if they will be employed this year or next, have it any better?

#88 IHCTD9 on 01.19.16 at 8:11 pm

“…the prime minister was asked about the new budget that Po’ Bill is tasked with coughing up. It’ll be great, he said. When asked how much the deficit will be, he praised his finance minister. When Po’ Bill was asked the same question, he walked away.”
_____________________________________________

Love that transparency, Harper would be proud no? At least Bill is good at body language.

T2 promised a 10 Billion deficit cap, 2 months later Bill didn’t want to talk deficit numbers. Now he wanted to talk Debt to GDP ratios. Meanwhile Trudeau was crowing from the rooftops regarding his steadfast resolve to spend money no matter what happens.

Now, neither one of them want to talk about anything that has to do with money.

Hope the Liberal voters of Canada did not speak too loudly, or to very many people about how democratic and transparent Trudeau is compared to Harper.

Looks like we’re heading straight for a PM that does absolutely nothing anybody wanted regardless of stripe.

#89 Brian on 01.19.16 at 8:15 pm

Can someone tell me why is that with oil and gas being only three percent of Canadian GDP why does C$ take such a hit when oil falls.

#90 Mark on 01.19.16 at 8:18 pm

“I’m amazed at how you can put so many words together on a topic in which you have only a passing knowledge in (at best). “

So tell me what’s so wrong with my suggestion that the falling interest rate environment has treated bankers (and the FIRE sector more broadly) very well over the past 30-35 years with a combination of rising asset values, and rising profit margins.

People who argue that rising rates are good for banks are also, by implication, arguing for asymmetry of outcomes. That the FIRE sector can outperform under all interest rate conditions, rising or falling. I think we can, based on historical experience, safely disregard such as even a possibility. At some point in the cycle, the FIRE sector needs to suffer, and suffer severely. And such just hasn’t happened in a falling rate environment for reasons which should be obvious if one has ever studied economics.

#91 Shuu on 01.19.16 at 8:22 pm

Ha, we have no financial knowledge it’s completely true. 27 and I can confirm, the best knowledge I have is basic savings, nothing about RRSP’s, ect ect.

How much financial education did I get in school? None. No classes mandatory. How much did my parents teach me? None, they pay someone else handsomely to do it. And how bad am I at math? Bad enough to be an -gasp- artist instead. We’re so screwed.

#92 Stock Chart on 01.19.16 at 8:23 pm

“Notably, the index has now gone precisely nowhere in just over 10 years,” said BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/a-rate-cut-tomorrow-could-inflame-canadian-housing-markets-economists-warn/article28240196/

#93 Mark on 01.19.16 at 8:28 pm

“Can someone tell me why is that with oil and gas being only three percent of Canadian GDP why does C$ take such a hit when oil falls.”

Because currency speculators (but curiously, not bond investors, a dramatically larger and traditionally ‘smarter’ group of market participants) are trading against the CAD$. Trying to fleece those who must convert their capital outflows from Canada into other currencies.

Speculation in one direction usually gives way to speculation in another direction, especially as the dumb money really flows into a trade. The CAD$ bears will eventually be caught naked shorting the currency of one of the most fundamentally sound economies in the “developed” world about to enter a significant deflationary spiral on account of a downwards acceleration in RE prices.

Business owners in my neck of the woods are financing their operations through bank loans, HELOCs etc. Rental costs are pulverizing them further. Sales are pathetic.

The mix of business these days is way overly-oriented towards satiating debt-fuelled RE consumption. No doubt about it, there’s significant overcapacity in that sector, and a lot of small businesses of the sort will disappear. However, there are many sectors of Canada’s economy which have been starved for capital over the past many years. Canada’s telecom sector and railways, for instance, are easily deficient $200B in long-term investment in their infrastructure. I do think that it will need to be “big” business that needs to lead the recovery out of this mess, and that the Liberals were right to de-emphasize small business in the election campaign as an economic growth driver.

#94 Boomer Death Counter on 01.19.16 at 8:29 pm

I have a question for you Garth? Are you ready to pay wealth taxes and other taxes on your total investments, home and other property?

Cold. Dead. Fingers. — Garth
—————————————————————–

Actually that is being arranged for your generation, as we speak, Garth. ;)

And the rest of us don’t really mind whether boomer assets are monetized by society before or after they depart. The point is about tax fairness and inequality and it’s not going away. (Boomers can try to go away themselves – good luck not getting robbed or killed somewhere in Latin America or Thailand!)

Bowie, Cole, Frey, Rickman – this is not an illusion. Betcha there will be four or five more big boomer names gone unexpectedly by month end.

Demographers have projected the start of the tidal wave of boomers dying to start in 2015, with the overwhelming majority deceased by 2025.

That’s now only nine years away.

Lots of us love our boomer relatives, or are the kids of same.

To those boomers who behave like selfish, entitled dickheads (you know who you are), why don’t you get grip now and consider your legacy.

Sharing is caring :)

Luckily there will be no wealth tax in Canada. BTW the average Boomer is just turning 60 and will be here for a quarter century. And your music still sucks. — Garth

#95 AfterTheHouseSold on 01.19.16 at 8:31 pm

No rate cut tomorrow.
CPD up .32 today.

#96 Smoking Man on 01.19.16 at 8:32 pm

#91 Shuu on 01.19.16 at 8:22 pm
Ha, we have no financial knowledge it’s completely true. 27 and I can confirm, the best knowledge I have is basic savings, nothing about RRSP’s, ect ect.

How much financial education did I get in school? None. No classes mandatory. How much did my parents teach me? None, they pay someone else handsomely to do it. And how bad am I at math? Bad enough to be an -gasp- artist instead. We’re so screwed.
…………………

At least you love what you do. I’ll give you a math lesson.

T2/4y = 0 CAD

#97 IHCTD9 on 01.19.16 at 8:33 pm

#82 John Dimas on 01.19.16 at 8:04 pm
I have a question for you Garth? Are you ready to pay wealth taxes and other taxes on your total investments, home and other property?
____________________________________________

You speak like folks have no choice in the matter…

Everyone in Canada will have a small business going the next day if they do something like this. Either that, or income will magically disappear off the books altogether.

Lots of broke-ass socialists and commies would just love it though, I can hear the drool hitting the floor.

It would probably lower long term income for the government. If you’ve been paying attention, most times when the government tries to produce a result of some kind, they end up achieving the opposite. There is good reason for that, and this kind of tax would produce a supercharged result.

#98 Jane Parsons on 01.19.16 at 8:35 pm

TRT, don’t you think a maximum 25% capital gains taxes is too low when you want wealth taxes, inheritance taxes etc?

Also, don’t you think that large capital gains say $1 million should be taxed as much as 75% no matter when t is realized or transferred?

Government pensions and dividends reinvested or paid out in excess of $3,000 a month should be taxed at 75% or more.

Who let the commies in? — Garth

#99 common sense on 01.19.16 at 8:45 pm

Canadian dollar back through .69

Oil at lowest levels…

LONG USD!

What rate cut?

#100 espressobob on 01.19.16 at 8:47 pm

#92 Stock Chart

Actually the index in question over that period made an annualized return of 4%. But there is a point to this, and it’s called a global index. Not so easy a decade ago, as most gravitated towards mutual funds that claimed to be in the know, producing alpha and proved to be quite mistaken.

ETFs are the beast they hate, and with good reason.

#101 Franco on 01.19.16 at 8:51 pm

No rate cut. The dollar is already too low.

#102 For those about to flop... on 01.19.16 at 8:52 pm

Thinking about Fort Mac makes me scratch my head.
Sales are down 40% sounds impressive ,but that means that there is a lot of people that think getting a small discount (50k) is a bargain.
Why would you do this to yourself when the writing is on the wall?
You are still spending well over a half a million dollars to live in Fort Mac ,I won’t spend that on a house in the Couv.When it’s all done you will be in it for close to a million….there is something wrong with this picture.

M41BC

#103 Drill Baby Drill on 01.19.16 at 9:01 pm

“same chance as you making out with Amal Clooney”
I actually did make out with Amal but then my wife elbowed me and said to quit moaning in my sleep.

#104 White Crock BC on 01.19.16 at 9:02 pm

Credit Suisse says $70 oil by December?

—————————————–

Delusional.

#105 Smoking Man on 01.19.16 at 9:02 pm

The higher up the educational industrial complex a millennial traveled. The more they are disarmed to deal with a rapidly changing world.

Completely robbed of critical thinking skills, logic replaced with emotion. They are an experiment of the late Maurice Strong terribly gone wrong. Climate Scam.

They have no scum sucking lying ability to make easy money.

Making easy money is a crime in their minds, that’s what the programing is.

They where forced into slavery in high school, volunteer if you want your certificate, that was only getting them ready for internships without pay.

Can you; imagen any Boomer back in the early 80’s working for free. It was unheard of.

We had muscle cars and T-bar roofs. We beat the living shit out of anyone moving in on our Chic’s. I once dropped four Italians in the parking lot cause one below a kiss toward my date. Today I’m still palls with two of them.

Today, people have nervous breakdowns or a macro aggression.

Millennials haven’t lived.

But I do thank you on behalf of other boomers for going into massive amounts of debt buying entry level homes so boomer old farts that can’t trade or sell, will retire millionaires.

Sue you teacher, they have lots of money.

#106 rawdiswar on 01.19.16 at 9:03 pm

Garth, painting with broad strokes there bud. And for good reason. The gene pool’s been diluted somehow.

Talk to anyone under 35 and ask them what an amortization table is, all the response you will get is a blank look. Many of these knuckle draggers have mortgages, lines of credit and car loans, but no nothing of compound interest.

Partially a failure of their parents, partially a failure of the school system. What do you expect when mediocrity and the path of least resistance are rewarded?

Take a look in any electrical engineering or computer science or actually difficult uni program. Will you see scores of white kids? Likely not, far more likely to see Asian kids. They seem to have a stronger work ethic, which is why white Canadians will be working for them in a generation.

The one tool we Millennials do have, the Internet. Just got to find yourself the right teacher, reach into your pockets, find whats left of your frank and beans and go for it.

Information is free kids, better start using it.

To be fair, most of the music does suck. Not enough heroin being pumped these days.

#107 Jane Parsons on 01.19.16 at 9:04 pm

Garth, I was asking sarcastically about these taxes to TRT.

I am not a commie or socialist. I am just curious about how some people think and I agree with you and others that think alike.

I thought people voted for the Federal Liberals and not the NDP? The NDP wanted taxing wealth policies.

#108 jess on 01.19.16 at 9:07 pm

Shine a Light on Secret Real Estate Deals

By THE EDITORIAL BOARD
JAN. 18, 2016
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/18/opinion/shine-a-light-on-secret-real-estate-deals.html?_r=1

#109 Bobs ur uncle on 01.19.16 at 9:08 pm

You know you’re old when you listen to the young’ens music and think “it’s just noise – it’s not even music” Newsflash you old fart – that’s precisely the intended reaction – to offend your sensibilities.

Regardless, there *is* still good music out there if you’re willing to seek it out. This one aptly titled for tomorrow’s rate decision: Roll the Bones.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=sD72LbIk02M

Sadly the recorded stuff does not live up to his live performances.

#110 broader mind on 01.19.16 at 9:11 pm

With the present BOC policy most wealthy or somewhat intelligent persons will vacate Canada permanently. On the bright side that will leave a lot more room for refugees.

#111 Herf on 01.19.16 at 9:13 pm

Re: #140 Freeman on 01.18.16 at 10:31 pm

“Garth, in that photo of the pickup trucks, you forgot to hang TRUCK NUTS from the hitch of each one of those pickups. Now that would make them ‘true Alberta’ pickups.”

The trucks were probably castrated, symbolic of what’s happened to the Alberta economy. The photo showing the trucks driving toward the dark storm clouds looming on the horizon was very fitting.

#112 Capt. Obvious on 01.19.16 at 9:15 pm

Can someone tell me why is that with oil and gas being only three percent of Canadian GDP why does C$ take such a hit when oil falls.

Because O&G extraction represents about 22% of our overall exports (2014 numbers). Add to this what’s going on in other resource sectors and well, you get the picture. Industry Canada’s website is your friend if you want the numbers.

#113 common sense on 01.19.16 at 9:18 pm

#107 Jane

I would not apologize…I’m not a Commie either but who is the gov’t going to come after for revenue if growth continues to stall and demographics are not in anyone’s favour?

I’m guessing anyone with a Net Worth over $500,000.

Funny, I’m magically going to be spending and losing some of mine at a casino (nudge nudge, wink wink) sooner than later.

Garth is correct.. COLD. DEAD. FINGERS.

Ya never know but better to be prepared.

#114 broader mind on 01.19.16 at 9:20 pm

All the money being saved at the gas pumps by the kids will allow them to pay for more house.

#115 For those about to flop... on 01.19.16 at 9:21 pm

Joking Man #103

We had muscle cars and T-bar roofs. We beat the living shit out of anyone moving in on our Chic’s. I once dropped four Italians in the parking lot cause one below a kiss toward my date.

//////////////////////////////
Pushing over four mannequins out the front of an Italian clothing store is no big deal…
If I recall correctly it was also really windy that day…

M41BC

#116 Jane Parsons on 01.19.16 at 9:22 pm

To Boomer Death Counter

You mean stealing is appealing but sharing is caring sounds better, right.

#117 mikett on 01.19.16 at 9:23 pm

Today, I wondered about this stimulus thing and infrastructure again. The other day I was on Highway 7. What a yuge disaster. If I were to count the lost productivity on this project alone it would be yuge. Seriously, if you were to count the receipts from public transit in this area over the next ten years, it would not pay for the real cost of construction. What politician in their right mind would do this. Hey, it’s pretty.
Second why is it that on every construction project it takes forever to complete…for example the 401. I hardly see people or large crews working but the roads are all blocked off causing traffic jams. Same for the 427. Where are the crews to get the job done so that we can be productive, efficient and competitive again.
Next rant, the quality of newly paved roads is terrible. In the 80s and 90s, when a road was newly paved it was smooth. Not today. To make things worse, they don’t hold up anymore.
We need engineers with balls that call out shoddy work and refuse to pay for crap work now being put out that cost us a mint. They are paid to do that or are they paid off?

Next, infrastructure? Bloddy hell, what we need is a digital infrastructure. Use the underemployed techs to build up super high speed connections to larger areas. Get fiber optic to the far reaches asap. We don’t need fancy bridges etc. Those jobs will NOT bring a foundation for the next generation. It’s a joke. The best connection I can get 40 minutes from the heart of Toronto is 5megabit connection. I am involved in a digital business and do not need to be downtown.
In the old days we needed more bridges and roads ( infrastructure to get goods to market when the economy recovered) we need to construct a NEW economy. The focus on infrastructure of the old type is suicidal for tomorrow’s world.

#118 Nanaimo Bar on 01.19.16 at 9:23 pm

#93 Mark
“Because currency speculators (but curiously, not bond investors, a dramatically larger and traditionally ‘smarter’ group of market participants) are trading against the CAD$”
————————————————————–
Bingo. The Bond boys have the deep pockets. They rejoice in doing the unthinkable. They are the shepherds of the currency traders.

#119 Freedom First on 01.19.16 at 9:25 pm

Seeing Canadian household debt levels edging towards 174% is both alarming to me and makes me feel all warm and fuzzy at the same time.

#120 gut check on 01.19.16 at 9:33 pm

@ #35 For those about to flop… on 01.19.16 at 6:54 pm

*******************

I don’t buy kids scooters or pink pens. I do buy razors and have never seen a price difference. They are ghastly expensive though, what the hell happened to China as far as razors are concerned?

Haircuts, on the other hand…..
costs me $50 with the tip for a trim. Sure, I have long hair and she shampoos it but really? What’s it cost a dude these days?

#121 acdel on 01.19.16 at 9:36 pm

Freedom First

Seeing Canadian household debt levels edging towards 174% is both alarming to me and makes me feel all warm and fuzzy at the same time.
——————————————————————–

I would suspect that the 174% household debt is probably not accurate and should be higher. There are many in this country that hold no debt and have money in the bank.

#122 Smoking Man on 01.19.16 at 9:38 pm

#116 Jane Parsons on 01.19.16 at 9:22 pm
To Boomer Death Counter

You mean stealing is appealing but sharing is caring sounds better, right.
………..

You caught me in my drinking hours, not sure if this is a dis shot my way.

I will pretend it is.

Under stand this toots, school lies to you, they make you believe your superior to the animal kingdom. Your not. We are all animals.

In the world of animals the physically strongest rules, gets all the hotties.

In the human world, the ones that take the biggest risks and are smart with no conscious makes all the loot and gets the hotties.

School removes risk.

With no risk, no prize.

No Prize. your stuck with an Ugly wife…

#123 Greaser on 01.19.16 at 9:38 pm

“(Credit Suisse says $70 oil by December).”
———————————————–
Are you sure you’re not confusing this with a call that they made early in 2015 for $70 oil in December of 2015. They were a little off.

#124 bsallergy on 01.19.16 at 9:38 pm

Thank goodness for the sunshine from tsquared’s nether regions.

#125 John Dimas on 01.19.16 at 9:41 pm

To Common Sense

I can see them possibly taxing principal residences with capital gains on death.

As for $500,000+ RRSP’s and RRIF’s, they are already taxed between 40% to 54%.

Vacation properties and additional non-primary residential properties and rental properties, there already is a capital gains tax at death.

The only exception I believe that currently exists is for spouses.

#126 Smoking Man on 01.19.16 at 9:46 pm

#99 common sense on 01.19.16 at 8:45 pm
Canadian dollar back through .69

Oil at lowest levels…

LONG USD!

What rate cut?
…………….

Dude get a grip, full blown communists are running the country. why would say something like that to the young and stupid.

Were going negative on the rate side. print this and put it on your fridge.

#127 Shannon McClure on 01.19.16 at 9:49 pm

It might be time for another Trudeau Mania Toronto Pep Rally. I’m looking at my Trudeau-Mania graphic and the ‘popularity’ hang time after each bus load of ‘Trudeau Gets Mobbed’ liberal party worker hacks has left town is cratering faster than the beleaguered Loon.

Lets face it, our dollar is in free fall, Trudeau spoke and every one yawned at Davos, investors have fled in droves since the election, there’s been no international follow up in any media, Trudeau is a total yutz on the world stage, our economy has collapsed, tens of thousands of factories won’t come back ever, costs for energy and heating have soared, seniors are shivering and starving, people are borrowing massive amounts to keep bread on the table, hyperinflation has arrived on the vanguard of stagflation.

Canada has been kicked out of western security talks, literally ‘we’re back’ to the ‘nobody’ status we enjoyed under Trudeau Senior, unemployed are being relabeled as ‘self-employed to hide the reality of the Trudeau Liberal meltdown and Sophie launches her career as a songwriter with a song describing her time as mother of Justin’s child as ‘ a low point in her life’. ( Hey, she said it not me).

Are we looking at the run up to a ‘do-over’ with Rona Ambrose stepping in and bringing some common sense and confidence back to Ottawa?

At this point you’ve got to think that even the “Liberals” who bought into the Hate Harper meme are wondering how everything got so bad so fast.

#128 common sense on 01.19.16 at 9:49 pm

#122 Smoking Man

In full agreement..No risk = No reward.

If school or most parents would teach kids about calculated risk or spend an afternoon at the track learning about odds….glad my parents took me to the track often. First hand experience at age and on.

I had a 16 year old kid tell me last night he knew more about financials than his 50 plus year old parents because he was an asst mgr at a 7-11. Good for him and scary at the same time.

Why the hell is it, 90% of the general population has no clue about financial planning, risk, budgeting, etc? I
know my parents hardly knew but lived in an age where you really didn’t need much to get by…

Smoking Man for Minister of Education.

#129 Patrick on 01.19.16 at 9:50 pm

We have the worst BOC Governor in our country’s history in my opinion. Another rate cut will just fuel the housing bubble and further increase debt loads, import inflation , further increase grocery prices, further trash our peso and the list goes on . Please resign SP !

#130 joblo on 01.19.16 at 9:50 pm

the prime minister was asked about making out with Amal Clooney It’ll be great, he said.
When Po’ Bill was asked the same question, he walked away.

#131 prairiegopher on 01.19.16 at 9:55 pm

I can’t believe how complacent you folks are. Our hot one PM is jetting off for a high priced ski trip along with a number of other snorfellers and people are talking about bacon and cheese donuts. Our economy is tanking and we can’t get a straight answer out of any of them. I would think there would be a lot more chatter about these bafoons or were you so mesmerized by the first lady’s siren song? Sunny ways alright!

#132 not 1st on 01.19.16 at 9:56 pm

Dont worry about all that debt cause debt jubilee is coming;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12108569/World-faces-wave-of-epic-debt-defaults-fears-central-bank-veteran.html

#133 Almost Retired on 01.19.16 at 9:57 pm

Preferred shares etf performance today indicates that a rate cut won’t be coming tomorrow.

#134 Smoking Man on 01.19.16 at 10:02 pm

#120 gut check on 01.19.16 at 9:33 pm
@ #35 For those about to flop… on 01.19.16 at 6:54 pm

*******************

I don’t buy kids scooters or pink pens. I do buy razors and have never seen a price difference. They are ghastly expensive though, what the hell happened to China as far as razors are concerned?

Haircuts, on the other hand…..
costs me $50 with the tip for a trim. Sure, I have long hair and she shampoos it but really? What’s it cost a dude these days?
…..

You are one hell of an alpha chic. Falling in love with you.

Smartest Female on this blog. Hell I’ll even go second smartest next to me.

It’s how I write.

But you get it, I’m a fan and read all your shit. Your a business pro, do great amazing work, and lap me when its comes to writing…

Keep the posts coming.

I’m not ashamed to say, I learn from you.

Your good.

#135 Sheane Wallace on 01.19.16 at 10:04 pm

#126 Smoking Man

Were going negative on the rate side. print this and put it on your fridge.

———————————–

We’re looking very, very hard at what needs to be done,” Trudeau told reporters Monday afternoon. “We’ve always said that being fiscally responsible while creating growth is at the heart of what the Liberal Party is, and that’s exactly what we’re going to do.”

Last week Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld said a deficit as deep as $30 billion was needed to revive growth, and this week former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge urged Trudeau to ramp up fiscal stimulus to take the pressure off monetary policy.

————————
Yep, loonie in the 0.40-es is a certainty.

#136 Red Deer Rob on 01.19.16 at 10:05 pm

That picture from yesterday’s post hits a little too close to home.

Tough times here in AB. I may soon be in one of those vehicles heading out of province. Problem is good paying jobs are difficult to acquire in any province unless you have the connections and picked the right skill set at the right time.

#137 Sheane Wallace on 01.19.16 at 10:07 pm

Markets are pricing rate cut:

CAD / USD 0.6838 -0.0022 -0.33%
CAD / EUR 0.6250 -0.0037 -0.59%
CAD / GBP 0.4836 -0.0008 -0.16%

#138 Jake Hanson on 01.19.16 at 10:09 pm

The comments about taxing people more and more until they have almost nothing sounds like Bernie Sanders has infected this blog.

If you saw Weekend at Bernie’s, this is what will happen to our economy and finances if we follow the Bernies of the world.

#139 Soothsayer on 01.19.16 at 10:21 pm

The oil slump is only just one variable in the equation. This is an oil crisis like no other. Economic devastation has hit Canada; it just hasn’t been announced in the media yet.

Hundreds of thousands of jobs are currently hanging by a string.

We are heading into a depression and any QE announced will do absolutely nothing at this stage of the game!

Save Save Save!!!!

#140 45north on 01.19.16 at 10:25 pm

Parliamentary Budget Officer: “Based on this projection, the financial vulnerability of the average household would rise to levels beyond historical experience.”

there’s no such thing as a soft landing. the US had a hard landing. Ours we’ll be harder.

#141 Yeah Baby who luvs ya on 01.19.16 at 10:25 pm

Epic debt debt debt til the end of time… T2 wants to make sure we are part of the party… party on world

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12108569/World-faces-wave-of-epic-debt-defaults-fears-central-bank-veteran.html

#142 Smoking Man on 01.19.16 at 10:26 pm

#128 common sense on 01.19.16 at 9:49 pm
#122 Smoking Man

In full agreement..No risk = No reward.

If school or most parents would teach kids about calculated risk or spend an afternoon at the track learning about odds….glad my parents took me to the track often. First hand experience at age and on.

I had a 16 year old kid tell me last night he knew more about financials than his 50 plus year old parents because he was an asst mgr at a 7-11. Good for him and scary at the same time.

Why the hell is it, 90% of the general population has no clue about financial planning, risk, budgeting, etc? I
know my parents hardly knew but lived in an age where you really didn’t need much to get by…

Smoking Man for Minister of Education.
…..

Bad Idea, first lesson.

Why would any attractive female work at Mcdonalds for min wage when you can post on backpage.com and sell a fantacy for 3000 dollars a day.

Beats a dead beat welder husband..

The herd would hang me for my honesty.

#143 Bram on 01.19.16 at 10:27 pm

#67 jaybee on 01.19.16 at 7:47 pm
I’m amazed at how you can put so many words together on a topic in which you have only a passing knowledge in (at best).

Mark is right, a lower BoC rate, not fully followed with a lower mortgage rate means a bigger margin for the banks. More profit.

Thus the bank’s margin is NOT in any peril, it will increase. Like Garth said: last BoC drop was not transmitted onto the consumers, fattening the wallets of the bankers.

Canadian banks are on sale right now, on TSX. Buy some!

Bram

#144 ANON on 01.19.16 at 10:28 pm

The 2016 Davos WEF is about to be renamed The 2016 Wake held at Davos…

#145 Cash is King on 01.19.16 at 10:28 pm

“Luckily there will be no wealth tax in Canada-Garth”

What is difference between a non-existent Federal wealth tax and Ontario’s Estate Tax? Other than one is provincial and the other is federal and that T2 is a big fan of what Ontario is doing.

#146 macroman on 01.19.16 at 10:28 pm

No rate cut and am really distressed losing two music legends so close together.

I hope Paul, Mick, Keith and Floyd are all born again. These misgivings usually happen in threes.

#147 Cici on 01.19.16 at 10:29 pm

And your music sucks, too.
____________________________________________

It’s not just their music Garth, it’s their TV too. They’re force-fed total crap the likes of which include the Kardashians, a never-ending onslaught of cheesy teenage vampire- or zombie-themed melodramas, and gangsters selling each other the mouldy contents of old storage lockers (for fun and for profit!!).

TV at its absolute worst!

#148 Bram on 01.19.16 at 10:34 pm

#101 Franco on 01.19.16 at 8:51 pm

No rate cut. The dollar is already too low.

Is it the Bank of Canada’s mission to uphold the exchange rate with USD?

I would think that BoC is more concerned about our GDP, our inflation and last our economy as a whole. Although I cannot say for certain: but I don’t think they are there to safekeep the loonie’s buying power in the US of A.

At the moment our economy is better served with economic growth. More exports and less imports would help that.

Also, it makes us Canadians buy local, and vacation in Canada, not Hawaii or Disney Land.

Bram

#149 Soothsayer on 01.19.16 at 10:38 pm

Interest Rate Announcement 12 hours before schedule..

NO CHANGE IN RATE!

Deal with it!

#150 Smoking Man on 01.19.16 at 10:51 pm

Sorry welders, welders was intended to be millennials, my key board is possessed.

#151 Sheane Wallace on 01.19.16 at 10:52 pm

#146 Soothsayer on 01.19.16 at 10:38 pm
Interest Rate Announcement 12 hours before schedule..

NO CHANGE IN RATE!

Deal with it!
——————————

I don’t think it matters. The sucker is sinking hard anyway. I think Poloz will cut. How otherwise would he be experiencing the orgasmic pleasure of negative interest rates? Think about the book he will write. Ben Bernabke of the North.

CAD / USD 0.6830 -0.0031 -0.44%
CAD / EUR 0.6239 -0.0049 -0.77%
CAD / GBP 0.4829 -0.0015 -0.30%

#152 Nagraj on 01.19.16 at 10:59 pm

“We’re having bacon and cheese donuts and tummy rubs.”

Did Bandit type that line while GT went off to fix hisself another drink?

#153 Blogbitch on 01.19.16 at 11:03 pm

Bacon and cheese donuts? Yes, please. They probably cost less than a cauliflower.

The debt levels you talk about leave me gobsmacked. All the better there are some donuts around.

#154 Cici on 01.19.16 at 11:06 pm

#40 Nanaimo Bar

On the subject of Palin, apparently her eldest son is definitely no model for Christianity: he just got arrested for beating on his girlfriend)

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/track-palin-sarah-palin-adult-son-arrested-alaska-article-1.2502319

#155 NotAGreaterFool on 01.19.16 at 11:12 pm

I dont get the Po’ Bill reference. Did I miss a blog entry?

#156 NotAGreaterFool on 01.19.16 at 11:14 pm

The Bank of Canada will cut its key interest rate to at least zero this year and could move toward negative rates to offset the crude oil price slump, according to Barclays Plc.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/bank-of-canada-to-cut-key-rate-to-zero-in-2016-barclays-says/article28249106/

#157 AfterTheHouseSold on 01.19.16 at 11:15 pm

#81 Retired Boomer W1
“Why, because the Boomer is in a pisssy mood…”

First WUL, now you. The winter blues? Maybe some Delbert McClinton will help.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19LOWzIu94g&list=PLnbWMKd_IfRtDa-sXHW0W_Ymz3CAuoojG&index=11

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiRuQ66edAg&list=PLnbWMKd_IfRtDa-sXHW0W_Ymz3CAuoojG&index=64

#158 Chris on 01.19.16 at 11:20 pm

70 oil by year end? I thought Iran just came online and oil price is going to be trashed. $20 oil or $70 oil, that is the question.

#159 steerage steward on 01.19.16 at 11:33 pm

Based on these projections and given their historical relationships, the effective interest rate on mortgage debt is projected to rise from 3.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2015 to 5.3 per cent by the end of 2020. At the same time, real house price gains are projected to moderate.

http://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/web/default/files/Documents/Reports/2016/Household%20Debt/Household_Debt_EN.pdf

Yikes indeed. Even accounting for the PBOs always subdued language, this data is very worrying.

#160 Sheane Wallace on 01.19.16 at 11:35 pm

#157 NotAGreaterFool

Loonie at .45 and lower is coming.

#161 The American on 01.19.16 at 11:35 pm

IMF just downgraded Canada’s economic outlook…. for 2017. Only three years a late as they should have called this a loooooooooong time ago. Wasn’t it obvious? It’s much like the ratings agencies behaved prior to U.S. economic recession (Great Recession).

http://www.thestar.com/business/2016/01/19/imf-downgrades-canadas-economic-outlook.html

#162 A Canadian Abroad on 01.19.16 at 11:36 pm

Personally, I’d love a rate cut tomorrow as I’m selling USD for CAD now for the past month…

But, Canada wise, it might cost ME if there is no rate cut, but I’d rater lose than Canada lose.

Thus,
No rate cut = Good for Canada.
Yes rate cut = Good for me
Preferred Outcome = Raise rates!

#163 WUL on 01.19.16 at 11:46 pm

#158 AfterTheHouseSold on 01.19.16 at 11:15 pm
*(*(*(*(*(

Keep the musical links coming. I enjoyed your links to the Headhunters. Unfortunately my mind is frozen in the era of the Allman Bros. Band and the Marshall Tucker Band. Once the album “Adele and Bieber – Live at Fillmore East” is issued, I will be free.

I have a funny story about an Eagles concert I attended with my Dad about three decades ago. I will expound on it on Saturday afternoon when us Garth fans are in withdrawal. Don’t get me started on the Kiss concert I attended in a tiny hockey rink (and I mean tiny) in Calgary in the 70’s. It is a tawdry tale. Although, that might be perfectly appropriate in the comment section on this blog.

Little good news to report today from Fort McMurray. I will keep you posted.

#164 Yeah Baby Who luvs ya on 01.19.16 at 11:55 pm

FULL DISCLOSURE in 2016

Smoking Man is from Mars.

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/01/19/ufo-drone-found-on-mars-is-proof-of-ancient-civilization-on-red-planet-2/

#165 ozy - negative rates are here to stay on 01.19.16 at 11:55 pm

negative rates are here to stay

Canadian dollar goes down. told ya way back. houses go up.

all for a reason. JOBS stay in CANADA.

relax. THERE IS NO OTHER WAY.

happy decade

#166 kommykim on 01.19.16 at 11:56 pm

RE:

#27 DON on 01.19.16 at 6:43 pm
I’m in. But i say for #3 – we provide a ton of names to make the point.

You mean names like Blogbitch, Soothsayer, Boomer Death Counter, KommyKim, IHCTD9, etc?

#167 Love my Kia on 01.20.16 at 12:03 am

Who let the commies in? — Garth
************************************
Yes Garth, you were a member of the NDP Waffle extreme left at one time, no? Saw it on Wikipedia. Yeah I know its not the most accurate site, but, what gives?

#168 Sheane Wallace on 01.20.16 at 12:04 am

Oil is at 27.62, loonie is at free fall and I can’t emphasize hard enough what is going to happen to the CAD when the poodle cuts tomorrow.

It would be total run away from the CAD and it would show the real state of our affairs.

I wish for somebody to school the poodle not to cut, but I don’t really have high hopes.

#169 Sheane Wallace on 01.20.16 at 12:09 am

in free fall damn it

#170 liquidincalgary on 01.20.16 at 12:12 am

Sheane Wallace on 01.19.16 at 6:22 pm

============================================

ad hominem your only ‘debate’ tool?

#171 Not tonight honey on 01.20.16 at 12:16 am

#35 For those about to flop… on 01.19.16 at 6:54 pm
////////////////////////////////

=========================

Flop! You’re a good man Charlie Brown.

This boils my blood pressure (sort of).
Let us suspend our collective worldview for a wee moment and just imagine if retailers charged more to folks of a certain skin hue, mature age or other such outlier.
outrage! mass hysteria! angry facebook memes up feeding faster than your finger can scroll!

Fortunately (for my husband’s blood pressure) I was not born with the shopping allele sequence, so I’m mostly Meh about this gender travesty. With that said, I do avoid the Pink Plague as much as is possible…..I buy the XY razors; cheaper by the dozen/grooms more nicely (thank you very much) and I can ‘borrow’ blades from my soulmate should I find myself up schick creek during shower time.

Regarding XX hair cuts, Well, I have often thought that I should be charging them for the privilege of snipping my bouncin’ & behavin’ luscious locks, silky smooth if I do say so myself, Amal would be so unpleasantly jealous ;-)

Good nite & good luck!
NTH
Ps. Thanks for the mention

#172 Johnny Polymer on 01.20.16 at 12:17 am

Hey Garth,

In this post you quoted oil $70 by December. Would you suggest investing in it? What is the most effective way to do so? Buy exxon stocks?

#173 liquidincalgary on 01.20.16 at 12:18 am

As for mortgages, everybody knows that Canada will eventually be following the US Fed higher once commodities stabilize (Credit Suisse says $70 oil by December).

==========================================

as commodities are priced in US$, they won’t stabilise until the FED stops raising rates. will/can BOC wait that long, as you’ve stated, that we will follow sooner rather than later in raising rates here?

#174 Borderline Genx/millennial on 01.20.16 at 12:25 am

Why are boomers so harsh on millennials? Who are, in many cases, their own children and grandchildren? Boomers lived in a golden age political and financially postWWII was a boom for North America, blue collar jobs actually provided a good life and white collar jobs provided even more. Pensions were widespread. Now we have none of that. Blue collar jobs rarely are enough to support a family. Pensions are rare in the private sector. Debt from school, homes (of course) as well as poor job prospects and uncertain tenure at a job are the norm.
When boomers complain about younger people they sound entitled and whiny. And still trying to stack the cards against their own children so they can get more, more, more to themselves. The original “Me” generation.

#175 Marvin on 01.20.16 at 12:53 am

#105 Smoking Man on 01.19.16 at 9:02 pm

The higher up the educational industrial complex a millennial traveled. The more they are disarmed to deal with a rapidly changing world.

Completely robbed of critical thinking skills, logic replaced with emotion. They are an experiment of the late Maurice Strong terribly gone wrong. Climate Scam.

They have no scum sucking lying ability to make easy money.

Making easy money is a crime in their minds, that’s what the programing is.

They where forced into slavery in high school, volunteer if you want your certificate, that was only getting them ready for internships without pay.

Can you; imagen any Boomer back in the early 80’s working for free. It was unheard of.
—————————-

And greenpeace was founded in the late 60s

#176 liquidincalgary on 01.20.16 at 12:57 am

Bowie, Cole, Frey, Rickman – this is not an illusion. Betcha there will be four or five more big boomer names gone unexpectedly by month end.

==========================================

why does no one, who makes these lists, remember Lemmy??

#177 Bottoms_Up on 01.20.16 at 1:08 am

#156 NotAGreaterFool on 01.19.16 at 11:12 pm
—————————————
Poor Bill, double meaning, as in “poor him” as well as “poor” as in he’s our finance minister.

#178 kamilapea on 01.20.16 at 1:08 am

That same co-worker who inherently knew Edmonton SDSs weren’t worth 2015 prices was willing to pay hundreds for Adele tickets as a gift to his wife… what’s the inherent worth of that?!

#179 Bottoms_Up on 01.20.16 at 1:11 am

#149 Bram on 01.19.16 at 10:34 pm
————————-
Right, isn’t the BoC mandate to keep inflation/economic growth at ~2%? That would likely mean they will move the rate in the direction needed to achieve this end.

#180 Ronaldo on 01.20.16 at 1:25 am

#144 Bram –

”Canadian banks are on sale right now, on TSX. Buy some!

Bram”

Really? RBC is still two and a half times higher than it was at it’s low in February 09. I’d say another 15 to 20% down from here. There are much better bargains than banks at the moment.

#181 Squish on 01.20.16 at 2:51 am

#151 Smoking Man on 01.19.16 at 10:51 pm
“Sorry welders, welders was intended to be millennials, my key board is possessed.”

——–

I was about to say, what the hell do you have against welders?! I’m a welder wife, though, not husband, so I wasn’t personally offended.

Heh.

#182 Tony on 01.20.16 at 2:52 am

Judging by the action in the Canadian dollar Tuesday speculators seem certain rates will be cut on Wednesday. The Canadian dollar should have been up 4 tenths of one-percent on profit taking. The dollar was virtually unchanged. The stupid money Tuesday was buying bank shares thinking rates won’t be cut. Poloz I believe thinks falling interest rates will save the housing market (Millennials here yes are that stupid) but quite the contrary a falling dollar will put Canada deeper and deeper into recession.

#183 Tony on 01.20.16 at 2:58 am

Re: #159 Chris on 01.19.16 at 11:20 pm

America will cut interest rates twice in 2016 leaving the Fed funds rate at zero later in the year. Oil should make about a 25 percent jump in November and December to the low 50 dollar U.S. area because of the falling American dollar.

#184 Leo Trollstoy on 01.20.16 at 3:02 am

Hey Garth if oil goes to 70where would gold be?

gold goes to crap all day every day

#185 Tony on 01.20.16 at 3:21 am

Re: #134 Almost Retired on 01.19.16 at 9:57 pm

The action in the Canadian dollar Tuesday portends a rate cut. Money flowing into and out of Canadian shares is clueless money. The Canadian dollar is traded on a worldwide scale.

#186 jane 24 on 01.20.16 at 4:06 am

I object to all the dumb poodle references. I have had a lot of dogs in my life and poodles are very clever. According to dog IQ tables (no idea how they test them) a poodle is second highest after the Border Collie, sheep dog to some of you.

One of my poodles was so good at English that we started to spell things out in front of him.

I wish we had more poodles in government.

#187 davikk on 01.20.16 at 4:08 am

CANADA: It sure takes a lot of piling on of debt by governments (all levels), businesses and households in this country to keep our way of life going.

http://investmentwatchblog.com/canada-it-sure-takes-a-lot-of-piling-on-of-debt-by-governments-all-levels-businesses-and-households-in-this-country-to-keep-our-way-of-life-going/

#188 We are too obsessive about rates... on 01.20.16 at 5:25 am

Why obsess over rates when you examine the stats and they are not doom and gloom as many here comment on this blog:

The RateSupermarket poll about credit card debt, from March of 2015, reports that 48% of Canadians owe $1000 or less, 26% between $1000 to $5000 and 21% more than $5000. The Canadian average consumer debt was $21,164…which means that 21% hold a lot of consumer credit…so 52% of Canadians have no credit card debt.

Parliamentary Budget Office report from yesterday shows that about $1.2 trillion of $1.9 trillion of Canadian debt is in mortgages and about $0.6 trillion in consumer credit. Balance is in loans and accounts payable.

A 2013 study report that 25% of Canadians are debt free.

2011 census counted 13.3 million households. Poloz reckons that 720,000 of those, in 2016, could struggle in an economic downturn or 5% of all households (probably lower as 2011 numbers will have increased in 2016 – but thanks to “No Census” Harper, we do not have a precise number).

In short and with continued low rates, we will continue to see debt rise; however, if a job loss, low GDP growth recession takes hold…well then, we will be in a heap of economic trouble as a nation…but currently, not due to rates. As long as debtors have jobs, they can pay (again, you have to qualify for mortgage and credit card debt).

No jobs, then we are in trouble.

So why do we obsess here so much about rates?

#189 Jan Zen on 01.20.16 at 6:12 am

Yup, here in Asia the rate cut talk is already cratering the loon. C$-USD to $1.55 today. C$ tanks against all currency. Nasty if you’re a tourist.

#190 pbrasseur on 01.20.16 at 7:14 am

I agree for Adele, her repetitive and heavy noise is worse than Celine Dion’s which is no small feat!

#191 Aaron on 01.20.16 at 7:22 am

Lots of these things you say make sense, except the stuff about Adele – she’s awesome. Wonder if she has a balanced portfolio?

#192 the Jaguar on 01.20.16 at 7:30 am

In today’s Globe and in other places as well. See the excerpt from the article below. If they are doing this in the US they are doing it now in Canada. All those big bank towers in downtown Toronto are going to get a little more empty in the future as jobs are shipped overseas where costs are lower. Welcome to the digital age…….

“”At Morgan Stanley, the firm’s executives rolled out their two-year plan to reduce expenses by simplifying the company’s legal structure, shifting employees to low-cost offices in places such as Mumbai and Budapest, consolidating various functions and relying more on technology. “We’re going to go after the infrastructure costs of the firm,” Jonathan Pruzan, Morgan Stanley’s finance chief, said in an interview. “”

#193 WallOfWorry on 01.20.16 at 7:39 am

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/20/bridgewaters-dalio-feds-next-move-toward-qe-not-tightening.html

More QE before more rate hikes…

#194 Herbn on 01.20.16 at 7:50 am

#127 Shannon McClure,

keep wishful thinking, Troll (or is that CPC Operative?).

#195 AfterTheHouseSold on 01.20.16 at 8:20 am

#164 WUL
“… the era of the Allman Bros. Band and the Marshall Tucker Band.”

A kindred spirit WUL! I will look for your Eagles concert story on Saturday.

#196 Nanaimo Bar on 01.20.16 at 8:46 am

194 Wall of Worry

More QE before more rate hikes.

————————————————————

Don’t worry. Mr Deep Pockets will fix that minor little problem of the strong dollar and Low CPI. He will be addressing this very shortly.

#197 WallOfWorry on 01.20.16 at 8:49 am

#185- Leo Tollstoy….seems like a pretty ignorant comment no? If you bought gold in CA $ last year and sold today you would be up over 20%? I bet that is a helluva a lot better than your balanced portfolio?

Oh wait….I forget…you are a real estate tycoon and Forex King buying in the US just after their corrections.

#198 Shuu on 01.20.16 at 8:54 am

#96 Smoking Man :

Let’s not push the term ‘love’. It was the third of a shitty list of options. I’m good at history? Golly, can’t wait to be a librarian or professor! Barf. I liked traditional art but I saw the snob from a mile away and ran in the other direction. Now I work in TV/Film, an industry in Canada that’s loving the weak dollar. Bring allllll the US productions up here. Do it. Give me work!

Also, it’s sad. I didn’t get your math lesson my friend :(

#199 Noel on 01.20.16 at 9:00 am

Credit Suisse’s oil forecast of $70 was made before Iran was given the go ahead to produce 500,000 bbl/day.

It will take months for the non-OPEC producers to take 500,000 bbl/day offline, and that will only get us back to where we were in December.

Barring a massive supply side disruption – say a coalition strike on Saudi supply lines (yeah right) – $70 this year is an unrealistic prediction.

#200 cramar on 01.20.16 at 9:01 am

#187 jane 24 on 01.20.16 at 4:06 am
I object to all the dumb poodle references. I have had a lot of dogs in my life and poodles are very clever. According to dog IQ tables (no idea how they test them) a poodle is second highest after the Border Collie, sheep dog to some of you.

One of my poodles was so good at English that we started to spell things out in front of him.

I wish we had more poodles in government.

———————–

No experience with poodles, but we had a Doberman-Pitbull years ago. According to the book Intelligence of Dogs the author said that every Doberman should be named “Einstein”!

We had to spell certain words too! If we said “walk” the dog would get excited about going out. So we switched to spelling “w-a-l-k”. After a while, the dog figured out that the phonetic sound of “w” meant outside. We found that she could understand certain English phrases. We also tried hand signals like using two fingers in a walking motion. She quickly figured out that one to.

The most amazing thing I saw was the summer before she died. It was extremely hot and I was working outside in the yard. The dog was out with me. She was heated and walked down to the back of the yard to a large maple tree and flopped on the cool grass. As I walked by her panting, she following me with her eyes. Without stopping I said, “Why don’t you go in the house where it is cool?” The dog immediately got up and headed directly towards the house. I thought, where is she going?

To my astonishment, she went directly to the door and hit it with her paw, which was her signal to open the door and let me though. I stood there in amazement and thought, the dog knew exactly what I said!

#201 James2 on 01.20.16 at 9:08 am

122 Smoking Man on 01.19.16 at 9:38 pm
#116 Jane Parsons on 01.19.16 at 9:22 pm
To Boomer Death Counter
You mean stealing is appealing but sharing is caring sounds better, right.
………..
You caught me in my drinking hours, not sure if this is a dis shot my way.
I will pretend it is.
Under stand this toots, school lies to you, they make you believe your superior to the animal kingdom. Your not. We are all animals.
In the world of animals the physically strongest rules, gets all the hotties.
In the human world, the ones that take the biggest risks and are smart with no conscious makes all the loot and gets the hotties.
School removes risk.
With no risk, no prize.
No Prize. your stuck with an Ugly wife…
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

As I recall just about a month ago you were calling your wife a hag! So no prize for Smoking Man!
Give your brain a holiday from your drinking SM. You can’t remember what you tell us.

#202 johnny on 01.20.16 at 9:13 am

Geez..Garth did someone say something bad about the beloved baby boomers..poor babies. The generation which grew up with everything handed to them..lots of good jobs which they still cling on to..inheriting all that money from their parents who saved like crazy because they lived through the depression. Those same boomers who benefited by far the most from our 600 billion dollars in debt..who are retiring with nice fat pensions..the generation that thinks they are just so cool and important.
Sorry Garth IMO there is no contest..the baby boomers are easily the most self-absorbed and selfish age group around who frankly are responsible for a lot of the mess we are currently in.

#203 HCWTT on 01.20.16 at 9:19 am

#96 Smoking Man on 01.19.16 at 8:32 pm

#91 Shuu on 01.19.16 at 8:22 pm
Ha, we have no financial knowledge it’s completely true. 27 and I can confirm, the best knowledge I have is basic savings, nothing about RRSP’s, ect ect.

How much financial education did I get in school? None. No classes mandatory. How much did my parents teach me? None, they pay someone else handsomely to do it. And how bad am I at math? Bad enough to be an -gasp- artist instead. We’re so screwed.
…………………

At least you love what you do. I’ll give you a math lesson.

T2/4y = 0 CAD
………………………………..

Is this like your gas in gallons to litres lesson before?
That was truly hilarious.

Here, Smoking Man solve the analytic expression for the two-loop hexagon Wilson loop. Ive even given you a link. Go to your UOG and solve that one.
http://arxiv.org/abs/1003.1702

#204 Dominoes Lining Up on 01.20.16 at 9:19 am

They just cancelled a major private sector celebration for Canada’s 150th birthday.

Not enough money, too many sponsors in dire financial straits.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/01/20/tough-economic-times-scuttle-project-to-mark-canadas-150th-birthday.html

Wow, that does not look very good for the economy.

2067 still looks possible, on a more positive note.

#205 Ole Doberman on 01.20.16 at 9:30 am

Gartho what’s the word on interest rates? I got out of bed early like you said and came here to find out.

#206 Bottoms_Up on 01.20.16 at 9:42 am

#201 cramar on 01.20.16 at 9:01 am
————————-
It’s not that dogs can actually understand human language. They learn associations, think pavlovs dog, ringing the bell and feeding the beast.

So a dog will learn to associate the SOUND of the word “walk” or “outside” with actually going out. Likewise, the sound of the word house and going back home. They can also pick up on motion cues, much like Clever Hans, the horse everyone thought knew english.

#207 Ken on 01.20.16 at 9:53 am

Up early for that morning report. How much is that coffee and donut today? Loonie down again this morning?

#208 Mormon heavy metal on 01.20.16 at 9:58 am

younger people are lefties? I dont think so. Mormon, Trump supporting, progressive heavy metal listening….

The solution to all this….the Mormon Church.

#209 Tony on 01.20.16 at 10:01 am

Bank of Canada rate left unchanged at .5 percent

#210 Nanaimo Bar on 01.20.16 at 10:02 am

Thank you Mr Deep Pockets

#211 Rational Optimist on 01.20.16 at 10:03 am

I come here instead of the CBC to get important news.

#212 Hank Ortiz on 01.20.16 at 10:08 am

The Bank of Canada did not cut their rate by 25 basis points today.

Poloz and his friends did not have the guts to cut. The slide in the Canadian dollar and Canadian bond yields is still not over.

A 65 cent dollar is coming in the next few weeks maybe months.

#213 Sheane Wallace on 01.20.16 at 10:09 am

Wow, that surprised me.

No rate cut?

Somebody must have schooled Poloz.

#214 Bobs ur uncle on 01.20.16 at 10:10 am

Steady as She Goes, courtesy Poloz and Jack White:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=zkD-xIUYPq8

#215 Mark on 01.20.16 at 10:12 am

No cut as predicted, but the Bank of Canada made it clear that they would respond if deflationary forces rear their ugly head.

All in all, consistent with my view that the BoC is going to be “on hold” as far as cuts go until the USD/CAD$ pair is back in the $1.2-$1.3 range.

IMHO, they should’ve done last year’s cuts a year earlier, and been down to 0% last year. So at least they would’ve had some room right about now to raise to defend the currency a bit. But at least now the deflationary problem is being talked about and the BoC appears to have left the door open to future policy rate cuts which will likely been needed as the RE sector decelerates.

On that note, anyone watch the CBC guests on “the National” last night dance around the topic of the RE bubble? I think most of them knew in their hearts what was unfolding (or about to unfold), especially when the overwhelming percentage of alleged private sector “job growth” last year was in the RE sector, but were deliberately sanitizing their comments.

#216 Ken on 01.20.16 at 10:14 am

It all makes sense dollar pops on the rate news, yet oil down another $1.17 it amazes me how the markets move on two simple words, no cut. I guess the economy changed on those two words amazing

#217 Zelda Boomer on 01.20.16 at 10:16 am

I was told there would be donuts and belly rubs

Roll over. — Garth

#218 BC Working Guy on 01.20.16 at 10:18 am

@ Bottoms_Up #207

“It’s not that dogs can actually understand human language. They learn associations, think pavlovs dog, ringing the bell and feeding the beast.

So a dog will learn to associate the SOUND of the word “walk” or “outside” with actually going out. ”

—————-

You have basically described what language is. With language, we associate the sound of a word with a particular meaning. All language is is sounds associated with shared meaning (btw, shared meaning is the basis of culture). If a dog can understand that a particular sound is associated with the act of going for a walk, I dare say that dog has language skills (albeit limited).

#219 Penny Henny on 01.20.16 at 10:20 am

I heard that ticket prices for Adele’s Canadian concerts are going up because of the low Canadian dollar.

#220 Dan Gonzalez on 01.20.16 at 10:22 am

Canadian bond yields are falling again today. The 30 year is now 1.94% and the 10 year is 1.15%. Interest rates are dropping even as Poloz and the Bank of Canada did not cut today.

#221 Soothsayer on 01.20.16 at 10:23 am

No interest rate hike…

Told you so!!!

#222 Nanaimo Bar on 01.20.16 at 10:25 am

Speaking of Hedge Fund Bond traders, Mr DEEP POCKETS Ben Bernanke is back in town. Remember him, the guy who was responsible for making taking the loonie over par. The guy that makes USD long currency traders weep.

Ben S. Bernanke has joined Hedge Fund asset manager Citadel as an outside senior advisor. He always shows up in Hong Kong looking for investors but not for investing in real estate if you know what I mean.

He says, “The USD two year rally is running out of steam.” at the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong.

“Much of the appreciation in the dollar may have already happened — we may not see much more,” the former Federal Reserve Chairman said Tuesday at the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong.

Damn, those Bond Hedge Fund traders always ruin the USD long currency parties. Just when the party was really starting to happen. Oh well, another lesson learnt, never fight against Bernanke. Nothing good ever comes out of it.

How DEEP are his pockets? Take at look at this photo of him and the article. He always has room for both his hands and still has room to rent his pockets out for commercial real estate opportunities.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-20/bernanke-says-dollar-s-two-year-rally-is-running-out-of-steam

http://www.businessinsider.com/ben-bernanke-hedge-fund-bond-trader-2015-4

#223 Deb on 01.20.16 at 10:26 am

Poloz did the right thing by leaving the rate unchanged at 0.5%. The focus will now shift to both the timing and the content of the federal budget. The darkening economic storm clouds will increase the pressure for the budget to be introduced as early as mid-February, rather than March.

#224 TRT on 01.20.16 at 10:27 am

The writing is on the wall, Poloz will cut at the next meeting.

That’s why the loonie stopped spiking. It will trend lower over the coming weeks.

Unless Oil cartel price fixes.

#225 Balmuto on 01.20.16 at 10:32 am

So no cut. Reset preferred market, as some people here were suggesting, was sharp. It rallied yesterday in anticipation of no change.

#226 Dominoes Lining Up on 01.20.16 at 10:37 am

Just heard on Newstalk 1010 radio in Toronto:

Michael Coren (host and apparent born again Liberal) discussing the BOC non-move and the state of investing, and why his terror of markets has all his savings in a GIC earning 1%:

“So if I was to invest in anything, I think I would take all my money and invest it in property. Am I wrong in thinking it is the only thing guaranteed to go up?”

Todd C Slater, a realtor-type who coincidentally runs a “show” ( or maybe a paid advertisement?) on the same station each week about real estate:

“No, I don’t think you are wrong. Your own property has gone up from $250K to over $1 million in twenty years….blah, blah, blah…”

And so the Kool-Aid is passed along once again, the mounting risk ascribed to everything except real estate.

#227 bdy sktn on 01.20.16 at 10:38 am

Dow 400 off in first hour

Was it still wrong to sell it all last week about 1000 pts higher than now?

#228 Keith in Calgary on 01.20.16 at 10:39 am

I’d rather have my private’s shaved with vinegar and sea salt than sit thru an Adele concert while on a date with Jenna Jameson.

#229 Mark on 01.20.16 at 10:40 am

Crude oil almost under $27/barrel. Crazy.

Gold miners should be taking off like rockets here, with the gold:oil ratio being so high, and production costs plummeting. But no action yet.

#230 Bernard Franklin on 01.20.16 at 10:42 am

DELETED

#231 Godth on 01.20.16 at 10:43 am

#203 johnny on 01.20.16 at 9:13 am

They’ve been riding a wave of debt growth since ’71 but you can’t mine the future forever. Now they’re just breaking bad:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEFN2TvgXgg

The Humbling River
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0YxeTjFn70

#232 TRT on 01.20.16 at 10:47 am

Time to give thanks to this blog and author (even if I don’t agree with him on YVR real estate).

Reading this blog, and arguing, has made me more money these last 2 years than ever.

Found my calling. Shorting countries, currencies, and companies. Lol

#233 Not tonight honey on 01.20.16 at 10:51 am

#207 Bottoms_Up on 01.20.16 at 9:42 am
#201 cramar on 01.20.16 at 9:01 am
————————-
It’s not that dogs can actually understand human language. They learn associations, think pavlovs dog, ringing the bell and feeding the beast.

So a dog will learn to associate the SOUND of the word “walk” or “outside” with actually going out. Likewise, the sound of the word house and going back home. They can also pick up on motion cues, much like Clever Hans, the horse everyone thought knew english.

=======================

Oh yes Indeedy, pups do ‘know & understand English’. Associations ARE learning/knowing!

(EO/MO) Sd -> R -> Sr +/- p+/- (loosely speaking of course)

(Ha, and I never expected I would post an equation on GF)

Shout out to My Man B.F. Skinner (Chomsky you a VB chump ‘Yo. You ain’t no linguist Bruv). ABA rulz Y’all

Can I get a hell ya? anyone…anyone… bueller? anyone..?

Hugs & Beans if you know what I Means.
NTH
Disclaimer: neologisms to prove point, not for the purposes of offending/cultural appropriation. Word. ;-)

*We will now return to our regular programming on rate cuts*

#234 Harbour on 01.20.16 at 10:53 am

Every Oil Sands Project is losing money with oil below $30

#235 Rainclouds on 01.20.16 at 10:54 am

#109 Bob

Agree, Speaking as a boomer, more great millennial music please. It. Is. Out. There…..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWI8Ge-_Uyw

#236 Harbour on 01.20.16 at 10:59 am

The Peso pop was brief, it’s red now.

#237 Best prediction from yesterday on 01.20.16 at 11:01 am

#269 TRT on 01.19.16 at 6:11 pm

On the FX front, something tells me that no rate cut tomorrow. Poloz will speak like it was his decision. Lol. (It was the Big 5’s decision).

Expect a 1 cent spike in loonie before it fades away in the afternoon. Loonie at 69.4 cents by end of day tom. My prediction. Will decide tomoro whether to invest in Canada for a few hours at least.

#238 AB Boxster on 01.20.16 at 11:02 am

#201 cramar on 01.20.16 at 9:01 am

I object to all the dumb poodle references.
———————————————–
Well it depends upon what you call dog intelligence.

As the owner of a standard poodle I can tell you the while they may be of higher ‘smarts’ than most dogs, it doesn’t make them rocket scientists.

I am always happy to refer to my dog as one of the smartest of the breeds but lacking in any common sense whatsoever.

There is no doubt that Poloz is intelligent.
Whether he has any common sense is debatable.

Poodle, pretty much describes Poloz to at tee.

#239 Rexx Rock on 01.20.16 at 11:04 am

TVIX and UVXY.Hope everbody made some money with my sweet picks!!!

#240 Sheane Wallace on 01.20.16 at 11:05 am

After the news/no rate cut, short lived ‘rally’ of CAD:

CAD / USD 0.6831 -0.0029 -0.42%
CAD / EUR 0.6268 -0.002 -0.31%
CAD / GBP 0.4816 -0.0028 -0.58%

#241 conan on 01.20.16 at 11:05 am

“Errr on second thought maybe we should have cut the rate.”

#242 Nanaimo Bar on 01.20.16 at 11:06 am

216 Mark
On that note, anyone watch the CBC guests on “the National” last night dance around the topic of the RE bubble?
—————————————————————

Yes, I watched a bit of that. Not all of it though. DP is coming out swinging. I taped it and I am going to watch the rest of it tonight.

#243 Godth on 01.20.16 at 11:08 am

Smoking Man
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAuEb9L_Kvg

#244 AB Boxster on 01.20.16 at 11:08 am

#203 johnny on 01.20.16 at 9:13 am
poor babies. The generation which grew up with everything handed to them

—————————————–
What a massive crock of shite.

#245 Iconoclast on 01.20.16 at 11:12 am

Never mind another US rate hike.
With the current market QE4 is a virtual certainty at this point.

The Davos billionaires do not want to become mere millionaires, after all.

My question is how to play QE4?

#246 MF on 01.20.16 at 11:14 am

So Poloz realized his misguided rate moves last year did basically nothing. Now with oil going even lower with no end in sight, and everyone more in debt, we now have less “bullets in the chamber” and are backed into a corner……just like everyone said last January with the first unnecessary cut. Good job. Well done (extreme sarcasm).

MF

#247 Ronaldo on 01.20.16 at 11:16 am

#198 WallOfWorry –

”If you bought gold in CA $ last year and sold today you would be up over 20%? I bet that is a helluva a lot better than your balanced portfolio?”

And if you had bought at beginning of January 2000 and held, it would be up 296% in CAD. TSX hit 10,000 for the first time in March of same year. Don’t waste your time trying to educate trolls. Best to ignore them.

#248 SWL1976 on 01.20.16 at 11:21 am

@ Godth

When you going to see ol’ Ron again?

It feels like a good time for a proper visit

#249 Marvin on 01.20.16 at 11:24 am

#243 Nanaimo Bar on 01.20.16 at 11:06 am

216 Mark
On that note, anyone watch the CBC guests on “the National” last night dance around the topic of the RE bubble?
—————————————————————

Yes, I watched a bit of that. Not all of it though. DP is coming out swinging. I taped it and I am going to watch the rest of it tonight.
================================

http://www.cbc.ca/news/thenational

#250 For those about to flop... on 01.20.16 at 11:31 am

#202 James2 on 01.20.16 at 9:08 am
122 Smoking Man on 01.19.16 at 9:38 pm
#116 Jane Parsons on 01.19.16 at 9:22 pm
To Boomer Death Counter
You mean stealing is appealing but sharing is caring sounds better, right.
………..
You caught me in my drinking hours, not sure if this is a dis shot my way.
I will pretend it is.
Under stand this toots, school lies to you, they make you believe your superior to the animal kingdom. Your not. We are all animals.
In the world of animals the physically strongest rules, gets all the hotties.
In the human world, the ones that take the biggest risks and are smart with no conscious makes all the loot and gets the hotties.
School removes risk.
With no risk, no prize.
No Prize. your stuck with an Ugly wife…
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

As I recall just about a month ago you were calling your wife a hag! So no prize for Smoking Man!
Give your brain a holiday from your drinking SM. You can’t remember what you tell us.
————————————————————
Joking Man wrote..
So look forward to the two gay bastards that copied my selection of glasses that I was tempted to run over on my weekly trip , usually on a Sunday to San Fransesco foods on Clinton street for a hot stake sandwich.

//////////////////////////////////
Hey James2 ,I got a better example than that look at the above statement by Joking Man days after calling me a homophobe for suggesting he take his “Shirly Valentine” routine to Grinder ,not Greaterfool .
Hypocrite.

M41BC

#251 Keith in Calgary on 01.20.16 at 11:32 am

Sitting at home recovering from my surgery today. Cruising along on Percocet………….and watching Stephen Poloz spew forth garbage during his press conference on CBC.

Thank god for the prescription. This man is an idiot.

#252 Ronaldo on 01.20.16 at 11:33 am

Remember this day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFF59fbf1YM

It is not 2008. Drop that day: 4.4%. Today it’s half that. — Garth

#253 westcoaster on 01.20.16 at 11:33 am

“Oxygen-sucking fossils in thirsty underwear” – I just spewed coffee all over the kitchen. Do you have any idea what image that brings to mind?

#254 Godth on 01.20.16 at 11:53 am

#249 SWL1976 on 01.20.16 at 11:21 am

Tomorrow @ 11 a.m.?

As for this whole discussion about crap music it only says that you aren’t paying attention. There’s such a wide variety and volume being created.
http://freemusicarchive.org/

#255 For those about to flop... on 01.20.16 at 11:59 am

#252 Keith in Calgary on 01.20.16 at 11:32 am
Sitting at home recovering from my surgery today. Cruising along on Percocet………….and watching Stephen Poloz spew forth garbage during his press conference on CBC.

Thank god for the prescription. This man is an idiot.

////////////////////////////
Keith,may you have a speedy recovery form your surgery.Good luck brother.

M41BC

#256 Retired Boomer WI on 01.20.16 at 11:59 am

No rate cut, that was a good choice. Oil down, US markets taking another dump.

Glad I dumped almost 100G last week into better things, no loss now, hee, hee.

After the markets are done say at 13,500 will look to re-deploy that dry powder.

When it smells like a recession, walks like a recession, talks like a recession…guess what? It is probably a recession!! China has yet to get real, bad oil debts have yet to get liquidated, and nobody is yet willing to realize their losses.

When we decide to “clean up” the extend & pretend then, I will play again.

#257 GenXer on 01.20.16 at 12:01 pm

#245 AB Boxster on 01.20.16 at 11:08 am #203 johnny on 01.20.16 at 9:13 am
poor babies. The generation which grew up with everything handed to them

—————————————–
What a massive crock of shite.

AB Boxster please explain? Sounds like johnny nailed it

#258 Shaker on 01.20.16 at 12:07 pm

Nice day for your advice to hang on to that diversified portfolio. Gravity is a law.

My advice is to ignore the volatility. Or, you can run around and make bad choices based on fear. — Garth

#259 Greg Stanfield on 01.20.16 at 12:08 pm

TRT, it does not matter if the Bank of Canada cuts rates or not.

We inching closer and closer to a Japanese economic malaise. Canada 30 year bond yields are 50% lower than 2010, 1.91% versus 3.82%.

Stock markets and real estate never recovered to previous highs.

#260 Soothsayer on 01.20.16 at 12:17 pm

Rate decrease coming at next BoC announcement.

Negative interest rate this time next year.

#261 tundra pete on 01.20.16 at 12:21 pm

No increase. Something must have fallen out of the sky and hit Poloz in the head. But that is a good thing.

Now i am going back into the bunker, putting on my tinfoil hat and eating tuna fish for lunch.

#262 Capt. Obvious on 01.20.16 at 12:25 pm

The drubbing in the stock market is getting absurd. Basically you’re telling me I can buy the Canadian economy at the same price as 10 years ago? Ok, I’m in.

#263 Capt. Obvious on 01.20.16 at 12:26 pm

We inching closer and closer to a Japanese economic malaise.

I don’t think you understand what happened in Japan. They had poor policy decisions on top of uniquely effed up company organization that crippled readjusting the economy.

#264 Capt. Obvious on 01.20.16 at 12:27 pm

When it smells like a recession, walks like a recession, talks like a recession…guess what? It is probably a recession!! China has yet to get real, bad oil debts have yet to get liquidated, and nobody is yet willing to realize their losses.

The US yield curve strongly disagrees.

#265 bdy sktn on 01.20.16 at 12:29 pm

547 dow

OK you may buy a short term bounce here.

#266 Philburt on 01.20.16 at 12:33 pm

I had mentioned to stay clear of finacials and I posted a chart of the technical breakdown. If the economy is sick draw your own conclusions.
Also where oil was $100 and fools were pointing higher I thought way lower. Detailed research say $25ish for a bottom. XEG is tanking Yield is rising and will be ripe soon. $50 EOY is reasonable. Dont expect $100 for years thought!! My 90% cash is doing well. Made 6% against the XEG today.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XFN.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p21593254191&listNum=1&a=440613556

#267 For those about to flop... on 01.20.16 at 12:35 pm

I’m watching the Comedy Channel (Bnn).
I’m losing money but these guys make it funny!

M41BC

#268 Soothsayer on 01.20.16 at 12:38 pm

I agree with the poster above on CBC’s expert panel last night…

I also watched CBC’s The National last night. The “experts” said absolutely nothing of value. I largely disagreed with just about everything. It goes to show that nobody really has a clear sense of what is going on including the experts…or at least they’re just there spewing the “official line” to try and keep the public calm.

#269 Sheane Wallace on 01.20.16 at 12:41 pm

My advice is to ignore the volatility. Or, you can run around and make bad choices based on fear. — Garth
——————-
It seems there are estimates in absence of immediate monetary assistance for S&P to move permanently in the 1200-1500 area which implies correction of 20-35 % down from current levels.

This is not recession driven, it is one time market re-pricing due to seismic shift in monetary policies.

Having defensive vs. diversified position in current market conditions seems pretty logical to me.

#270 Briana on 01.20.16 at 12:42 pm

What advice for those with no money in the markets?? I have been sitting on the sidelines, not buying a home and not investing…just saving cash.

Not going to buy a home in these economic times, YVR and YYZ obviously headed for a major correction/bust.

Where is the bottom in these markets? Do I buy stocks on sale now or wait and save for further discounts?

#271 pbrasseur on 01.20.16 at 12:43 pm

As predicted no rate hike.

I guess the BoC is by now admitting how powerless it is. Impossible to move without scaring off investors and hurting the CAD to the point it becomes another nasty problem for the Canadian economy. As a matter of fact the BOC is cornered between canadian households debt ratio (171% !!!) and the sinking currency. If it rises it hurts households and risks crashing RE, if it cuts it sinks the currency, either way it kills consumption and investment.

That’s what happens when you are deep in debt, you lose control over your own destiny.

So the Bank says it’s up to the federal government to borrow and spend our way to a recovery such as promised by T2 (Provinces are already tapped out and can’t do it). This is the last inning in the game, after that we’ll be deep in debt everywhere, no more margin anywhere besides getting poorer. Ain’t socialism wonderful?

#272 For those about to flop... on 01.20.16 at 12:50 pm

This is a song by Split Enz which goes with the day…

M41BC

“I See Red”

When my baby’s walking down the street
I see red, I see red, I see red
How could someone wicked walk round free
I see red, I see red, I see red
I see red, I see red, (hey!)
I see red

I respect your wishes
You gave me such precious hours
What to do without you.
Squeezed me out of your life
Down the drain like molten toothpaste
I feel used and spat out
Poor old me

When my baby’s walking down the street
I see red, I see red, I see red
How could someone wicked walk round free
I see red, I see red, I see red
I see red, I see red, (hey!)
I see red

I’m fed up with crying
My despair is dying,
Turning into rage, day by day
Green before you met me
In the pink when you let me love you
I was blue when you let me down
Black and blue

When my baby’s walking down the street
I see red, I see red, I see red
How could someone wicked walk round free
I see red, I see red, I see red
I see red, I see red, (hey!)
I see red

Mmmoh
(Ahhhrghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh)
Go, go, go, go!

I see red, I see red, I see red
I see red, I see red, I see red
Oooh I see red, (hey!)

I see red, I see red, I see red (I see red)
I see red, I see red, I see red (I see red)
I see red, I see red, I see red (I see red)
I see red, I see red, I see red (I see red)
I see red, I see red, I see red (I see red)
I see red, I see red, I see red (I see red)
I see red, I see red, I see red (I see red)
I see red, I see red, I see red (I see red)
I see red, I see red, I see red (I see red)
Red, red, red

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HExjgykVsJc

#273 Almost Retired on 01.20.16 at 12:51 pm

I guess Linda was right.

#274 Dups on 01.20.16 at 12:53 pm

The markets laid another nice big egg. Time to buy more equity funds…

These fluctuations do not make any sense, they seem to based on fear not on economics. They all move in the same direction: go down and up at the same time. Just the magnitude is different.

Always buy when it goes down, and hold on they will come back soon.

#275 S.Bby on 01.20.16 at 12:54 pm

Lots of R/E pumping in the local YVR media today :

http://www.news1130.com/2016/01/20/growing-families-creatively-getting-around-local-housing-woes/

http://www.news1130.com/2016/01/20/american-tourists-snapping-up-canadian-properties-as-dollar-dips/

#276 Marcus on 01.20.16 at 12:56 pm

DOW down 550. No capitulation yet.

#277 IHCTD9 on 01.20.16 at 12:56 pm

#203 johnny on 01.20.16 at 9:13 am
Geez..Garth did someone say something bad about the beloved baby boomers..poor babies. The generation which grew up with everything handed to them..lots of good jobs which they still cling on to..inheriting all that money from their parents who saved like crazy because they lived through the depression. Those same boomers who benefited by far the most from our 600 billion dollars in debt..who are retiring with nice fat pensions..the generation that thinks they are just so cool and important.
Sorry Garth IMO there is no contest..the baby boomers are easily the most self-absorbed and selfish age group around who frankly are responsible for a lot of the mess we are currently in.
____________________________________________

My parents were early boomers. Came here with my Grandparents from a bombed out country and busted their ass farming to scratch out a meager existence. Dad was a shift worker, Mom cleaned houses, they drove used cars and bought “fixer upper” houses. They are semi retired now on CPP and OAS – they’ll never be fully retired. They are content, no one has ever handed them anything, even after 57 years of working (and counting).

You son, don’t know what hardship is compared to most boomers IMHO. Kids these days seem to think the world owes them a living, and anyone who has one – had it handed to them.

You will amount to little with your attitude. Blame the boomers all you want, my bet is when they’re all dead and gone, you’ll still be in the same position you are in now, albeit probably with a new demographic to aim your pointy finger at for your troubles.

Good luck buddy.

#278 conan on 01.20.16 at 12:56 pm

TSX basically at 11500 and I see value and vulch. Time to go in.

#279 Penny Henny on 01.20.16 at 12:57 pm

#247 MF on 01.20.16 at 11:14 am
So Poloz realized his misguided rate moves last year did basically nothing. Now with oil going even lower with no end in sight, and everyone more in debt, we now have less “bullets in the chamber” and are backed into a corner……just like everyone said last January with the first unnecessary cut. Good job. Well done (extreme sarcasm).

MF
///////////////////////////////////
Yeah go ahead, blame Poloz.
We all know the market started to tank as soon as you set up your portfolio.
You even joked about it. Said something like ‘now that I’ve set up my portfolio watch the markets tank, lol’.
So……what are you going to do about it?
SELL ALREADY!!

#280 SWL1976 on 01.20.16 at 1:00 pm

#255 Godth

#249 SWL1976 on 01.20.16 at 11:21 am

Tomorrow @ 11 a.m.?

———————

Tomorrow about 1pm would be better for me as I have an important interview right smack dab at 11am

#281 Bank puts rate on ice - for now on 01.20.16 at 1:02 pm

Darn… Maybe the libs are not as bad as they have been painted to be?

#282 broader mind on 01.20.16 at 1:06 pm

Safe stuff sucks compared to a house. Even a major real estate crash now cant repair the damage.

#283 cramar on 01.20.16 at 1:07 pm

It is obvious that Poloz does not have a clue what to do to help Canada.

With the Dow & S&P currently getting hammered again today, and the TSX even worse, the average Canadian is just gonna say, “See investing is just a casino! The only thing GUARANTEED to give you profit is REAL ESTATE!”

With mortgage rates at record levels, it is no wonder the sheep see extreme leverage on RE the way to certain riches. In the short term, what card-carrying millennial will not be taken in?

I can see a major train wreck happening with a meltdown in RE coming in the future! Soft landing is off the table now!

#284 Dups on 01.20.16 at 1:07 pm

http://in.reuters.com/article/us-russia-markets-idINKCN0UY1DD

Putin should change course before the Rubble is done. The markets are all a political game at this point.

#285 Fiction Peddler dlog 1472_1614 on 01.20.16 at 1:12 pm

I need urgent advice from he stock picking brigade here – JimH, The American, expressobob, Retired Boomer WI, Doug in London, MF and all others I may have forgotten.

What stock or ETF on sale everywhere should I buy – is there anything that is going “buy one stock- get one free” (or at least at 50% off)

Thank you in advance.
The Fiction Peddler dlog 1472_1614

#286 Philburt on 01.20.16 at 1:15 pm

I think a rate cut makes them look desperate and we can’t have that….Cause they are. Nothing new since 2009…

#287 For those about to flop... on 01.20.16 at 1:16 pm

#274 Jimmy Dix on 01.20.16 at 3:24 am
*********************************

115 For those about to flop… on 01.19.16 at 9:21 pm

Joking Man #103

We had muscle cars and T-bar roofs. We beat the living shit out of anyone moving in on our Chic’s. I once dropped four Italians in the parking lot cause one below a kiss toward my date.

//////////////////////////////
Pushing over four mannequins out the front of an Italian clothing store is no big deal…
If I recall correctly it was also really windy that day…

M41BC
*********************************

@Flop, best comment of the evening, fell out of my chair laughing :-)

////////////////////////////////
Thanks Jimmy, I’m glad I made you laugh.
I try to keep people’s spirits up and it looks like it did the trick for you.

M41BC

#288 MF on 01.20.16 at 1:18 pm

71 Penny Henny on 01.20.16 at 12:57 pm

Thanks for the rock solid advice. I’ll make sure I wait until everything is at rock bottom and then sell just to be sure.

Here’s some advice for your man Poloz: how about RAISING interest rates and starting the (hopefully) gentle popping of our housing bubble and bringing some fundamentals back?

MF

#289 bdy sktrn on 01.20.16 at 1:24 pm

You will amount to little with your attitude. Blame the boomers all you want, my bet is when they’re all dead and gone, you’ll still be in the same position you are in now, albeit probably with a new demographic to aim your pointy finger at for your troubles.

Good luck buddy.
——————————-
burn baby burn.

very well said.(esp from a tech guy)

whiny basterds. this from another genx who got few/none of the suposed boomers freebies.

hey, mils, now pick up that broom and get back to work

#290 Centre Wing on 01.20.16 at 1:25 pm

#203 johnny on 01.20.16 at 9:13 am

——————–

God, I hate my generation. So much bitching and not enough doing.

#291 CJBob on 01.20.16 at 1:35 pm

#271 Briana on 01.20.16 at 12:42 pm
…Where is the bottom in these markets? Do I buy stocks on sale now or wait and save for further discounts?
__________________________________
As is repeated often it’s nearly impossible to time the market so don’t try. Go in 20% at a time every month over 5 months. Dollar cost averaging is your friend.

#292 Ab Boxster on 01.20.16 at 1:39 pm

#258 GenXer on 01.20.16 at 12:01 pm

AB Boxster please explain? Sounds like johnny nailed it.
———————————————
Note to Johnny…
Maybe have a look at economic history in Canada prior to the 90’s.
You know, before you popped out.
There were real people learning, working, struggling, and dying, before the days of the internet, and Facebook and selfies and ‘idiot’ phones.

Specifics though?
Sure.
The generation which grew up with everything handed to them.

#1. lots of good jobs

My Reality?

Graduated in 1984 after 4 years university. Honors degree. No Jobs.
Whoops. T1, NEP and OPEC kill oil patch.
Back to school again.
Finally found the real ‘career’ job in 1988. (10 years after HS graduation)

Major recession in 1982
Major recession in 1990

There were periods of good jobs.
There were periods of no jobs.

FootNote: as Boomers were a large demographic, we had many, many others competing for the same job.
I know many people who never did find that ‘career’.
Many I know have university degrees that they never used, or careers totally unrelated to their original schooling.

#2. inheriting all that money from their parents who saved like crazy because they lived through the depression.

Reality?
Just because they lived through the depression did not mean that they had a ton of money.
Dont forget, they lived on 1 income, with 1 wage earner.

#3 Those same boomers who benefitted by far the most from our 600 billion dollars in debt

Reality?
The boomer generation did benefit from debt.

Also, very true that the offspring of the boomers, (uh you know – Johnny perhaps?) benefitted from this largesse as well. Or do you think that the benefits that went only to the boomers, and that all the debt spent on health care, social services, etc. did not go to boomer kids as well?

#4 who are retiring with nice fat pensions

Reality?

Why does Johnny think that many boomers still have ‘jobs which they still cling on to’?
Some still work because they want to.
May still work because they have to.
Those nice pensions have disappeared for many boomers too.

Other history
First house I bought i paid mortgage interest rates of 15%.
First job I got (after 7 years university) I was paid $20,000 and happy to have it.
I have been downsized 3 times during my career due to economic recession and corporate BS.

Yep, secure employment for sure?

Bottom Line?

I fully agree that today’s generation has great challenges with the following:

Education costs that are through the roof.
Housing costs that are through the roof. (Maybe blame yourselves for that?)
Globalization that makes ‘secure jobs’ a challenge.
Global recession and low growth.

Here’s the thing though.
One can complain about it, or you can deal with it.
Most will find a way to succeed, often with the help of their ‘evil’ boomer parents.

Will Johnny succeed?
I’m not so sure.
Sounds like just a whiner to me.

#293 blamehim on 01.20.16 at 1:55 pm

“So the Bank says it’s up to the federal government to borrow and spend our way to a recovery such as promised by T2 (Provinces are already tapped out and can’t do it). This is the last inning in the game, after that we’ll be deep in debt everywhere, no more margin anywhere besides getting poorer. Ain’t socialism wonderful?”

What got us here wasnt 10 years of socialism.

Scape-goating: the first, last and only conservative line of defence.

#294 Gulf Breeze on 01.20.16 at 2:01 pm

Boomers are the only ones allowed to complain, right?

Instead of being helpful and mentoring the young, they whine about younger generations, who actually DO have it hard. I hate to tell you what qualified as hardship for many of my peers, when I was coming of age. We were SO damned lucky.

So suck it up, smug 60+. I am a boomer, btw.

#295 broader mind on 01.20.16 at 2:03 pm

I have a solution, chuck the house of Saud and split the country up among the remaining semi-rational OPEC members.Saudi can wipe out the western world with high or low oil price and is playing everyone of us.

#296 common sense on 01.20.16 at 2:05 pm

#233 TRT

That’s two of us….good luck!

Enjoy the ride…

#297 Practical_Logical on 01.20.16 at 2:21 pm

@ #203 Johnny
Bingo!
However the clock is ticking and they’ll be dead soon.lol

#298 Almost Retired on 01.20.16 at 2:21 pm

I can’t wait to read tonights entry.

Economists polled and traders alike are now only forecasting and pricing in 1 fed rate hike in 2016 – probably in September at the earliest.

Quite a few calls that the fed maybe actually start another round of QE – from some pretty prominent minds at Davos.

Many top guys like Gundlach are saying that the selling has just begun. Were entering a bear market.

#299 Retired Boomer WI on 01.20.16 at 2:22 pm

Ok. Better mood..-AFTER THE HOUSE SOLD- the Delbert Mc Linstock helped., thanks!

So, only moved my Index Fund to safe ground last week 15% of portfolio. Ha, that was smart, it has lost more since the move.

Sold nothing else. Moving 15% out of harms way is only a temp move. When oil stops falling I’ll put it back.
I have a ‘buy’ order anyway at 81.24 on it but it’s was up around 92 presently.

Rather surprised by the ’emotion’ expressed in todays markets. I was beginning to think nothing could surprise me these days. Oh well. Anyone who believed good companies are worth 12% less than they were a couple of weeks ago is crazy. Still, the herd could yet run the prices down another 10% or so… why not take a bit out of the stupid?

What do ya suppose is due up next to surprise the world?
Self-cleaning thirsty underwear?

#300 Nanaimo Nar on 01.20.16 at 2:23 pm

Canada 5 year Bond Yield trader to Ground Control. You request for clearance for liftoff has been granted. Please fly safely.

#301 Retired Boomer WI on 01.20.16 at 2:34 pm

#203 Johnny

Why bother to waste my words.

HE “knows” everything, just read that post. (sigh)…..

EVERY generation thinks they are the “newest brightest shining lights.” Mine sure did when we left high school in the late 1960’s.

EVERY person my age never expected their life to turn out quite the way it did, Johnny boy, some for better, some for worse… but NEVER quite as imagined., at least I’ve never met them-yet.

So, Johnny, show me what you can do. (besides bitch)

#302 old gringo on 01.20.16 at 2:34 pm

I LOVE IT!
This market has more entertainment value then Trump and Palin.
What’s next?
They say ,”When the tide goes out you can see who is swimming naked”.

#303 Dan on 01.20.16 at 2:34 pm

We live in interesting times. It would be funny to watch Trudeau dynasty in making if it was not bottom of intellectual misery. Soon, sunny ways will be over and knives will be out. Infrastructure work? But North America is about 50 years behind Europe in infrastructure.

#304 Rainclouds on 01.20.16 at 2:38 pm

#292 AB Boxster

You forgot one:

#5: Boomers VOTE

#305 mydadcanbeatyourdad on 01.20.16 at 2:38 pm

“Boomers are the only ones allowed to complain, right?

Instead of being helpful and mentoring the young, they whine about younger generations, who actually DO have it hard. I hate to tell you what qualified as hardship for many of my peers, when I was coming of age. We were SO damned lucky.

So suck it up, smug 60+. I am a boomer, btw.”

Such a boring argument. We’re all the hero in our own mind; every challenged ranked only against our own experience.

Who cares which generation had it “easier”? How on earth could you ever gauge such a thing? An adolescent and petty waste of time.

The take away is — things change, always and in ways that are unexpected. We raise our kids and prepare them to face the challenges we faced and leave them defenceless to an evolved reality.

Instead of complaining and measuring ‘effort’ observe and adapt.

That goes for all generations. You don’t want to be calling your son to set the timer on your VCR do you? Why can’t my mom learn to torrent pirated TV shows?

#306 Goofy 2 Shoes on 01.20.16 at 2:40 pm

#203 johnny on 01.20.16 at 9:13 am

“Sorry Garth IMO there is no contest..the baby boomers are easily the most self-absorbed and selfish age group around who frankly are responsible for a lot of the mess we are currently in.”
—————————————-
Caution: RANT ALERT

You need to get out more and talk to people outside your age group to get some perspective.

How bitter you appear to be of others who have more than you. They have worked with the opportunities and challenges in their lifetime to achieve what they have. How quick you are to blame others who just went to work every day and tried to support themselves and their families.

I’m one of the late boomers, and right now a significant amount of my pay is to income taxes to support social programs that are far, far more generous now than when I was in my 20’s and 30’s and struggling to raise a family.

Nothing handed to me – or my parents who were children during the depression and who ate bacon fat spread on home made bread for dinner. I have had to work for everything, even my education I paid for as I went. We lived through some pretty tough economic times with less safety nets than there are now. Can you imagine a mortgage with interest rate of 21%? Interest rates went up about 6 percent in about 7 months. Yet you think we had things ‘handed to us’.

I have worked incredibly hard and sacrificed ALOT to achieve the lifestyle I enjoy now at this time in my very early 50’s. I have no ‘fat pension’ – mine is called SAVING and is a result of making choices for every dollar I spend. That $5 latte = one 4 litre of jug of milk for the family or added to a savings account will grow compounded/invested over the years. I have grown my own “pension” and I’m not alone. Stop with being jealous about what you see we have. We earned it.

I worked for two collection agencies right out of high school from 1983 – 1987. That was an education on the importance of saving and the risk of living beyond your means. Horrible stories of people suddenly losing everything because they had it all but the bank owned it. They lost their job, got sick, etc. It was the worst job I’ve ever had to do because these people were in situations similar to today. High debt, little savings, and economic conditions outside their control.

END OF RANT.

GEEZ.

#307 Briana on 01.20.16 at 2:41 pm

#291 CJBob on 01.20.16 at 1:35 pm

#271 Briana on 01.20.16 at 12:42 pm
…Where is the bottom in these markets? Do I buy stocks on sale now or wait and save for further discounts?
__________________________________
As is repeated often it’s nearly impossible to time the market so don’t try. Go in 20% at a time every month over 5 months. Dollar cost averaging is your friend.
——————————————–
Reply: Thanks CJBOb. Sounds like a solid strategy. Any advice from you or anyone on which sectors/stocks/options could be at bargains?

#308 Dan on 01.20.16 at 2:42 pm

And also, how funny was to predict Russia collapse, because of sanctions and low oil prices. What about now?
Washington is biggest promoter of communism because equalise social justice and communism. Social justice and communism are connected like democracy and so called free west. Feet of shit, dear people. Feet of shit.
Norway is also big oil producer, right? How they gonna to survive? Social Democracy anyone?

#309 conan on 01.20.16 at 2:45 pm

#294 Gulf Breeze on 01.20.16 at 2:01 pm

This is probably why Sanders is going to win the Democratic nomination. The youth and mangled boomers are going to vote for him.

The powers that be crushed General David Petraeus and Hillary may have done something much more damaging.

It is possible that the H Clinton campaign is going to be derailed. If this happens expect VP Biden to enter the race.

#310 AB Boxster on 01.20.16 at 2:50 pm

#294 Gulf Breeze on 01.20.16 at 2:01 pm

Boomers are the only ones allowed to complain, right?

——————————————————————-
Why generalize about ‘all’ boomers and ‘all’ younger generations.

Boomers who can only complain, are losers.
The younger generation who can only complain, are losers.

Boomers that don’t help the younger generation are losers.
The younger generation that does not think it has anything to learn from the boomers are losers.

In general people that complain are losers.

I have worked with many complainers, who have no interest in improvement or finding better ways.
They are mostly pathetic.

No company in the world wants to hire complainers and losers.
No successful businessperson or citizen was ever successful because they complained.

Everybody has/had it hard at one time or will have it hard eventually. Death is the ultimate equalizer that way.

Frankly, no one in Canada has the right to complain.
Maybe if you lived in Syria or Somalia or Syria you might be justified in complaining.
It wouldn’t help your situation, but it might make you justified.

In Canada, hardly.

#311 Philburt on 01.20.16 at 2:51 pm

#270 Sheane Wallace on 01.20.16 at 12:41 pm
I think you nailed it. Ive been patiently waiting 6 months for this to play out.

#312 CJBob on 01.20.16 at 2:52 pm

#307 Briana on 01.20.16 at 2:41 pm
… Any advice from you or anyone on which sectors/stocks/options could be at bargains?
___________________
None, I follow a balanced approach of ETF’s similar to that recommended by Garth and the couch guy.
I bought into CAD today a bit (XIC) as I had about 59% sitting in fixed income and my target is 52%.

#313 Dups on 01.20.16 at 2:53 pm

If you do not sell, you do not loose. The market is there to serve us. If we like it we buy it, if we do not like it do not buy it. When it behaves stupid, ignore it.

#314 Dan on 01.20.16 at 2:54 pm

Bomb Europe. Give them rebuilding loans. Live well of interest for next twenty years. Repeat.

#315 steve saretsky on 01.20.16 at 2:56 pm

Wow not sure how I feel about blasting millennials like that haha. Great article otherwise. Housing bubble is going to burst very soon, the amount of money that’s being given out to anyone with a pulse is scary. More debt= more risk. How many people will default on their mortgage payments when the economy goes into the shitter

#316 AB Boxster on 01.20.16 at 2:57 pm

#304 Rainclouds on 01.20.16 at 2:38 pm
You forgot one:

——————————————-
Ssshhh..

Next you’ll be giving out the secret boomer handshake.

#317 Ronaldo on 01.20.16 at 3:04 pm

Day traders must be having a ball again. 471 points between yesterdays close and today’s low. Probably end up closing even on the day. Wife getting a bit nervous so I had to remind her that we are still in the positive from January last year and considering how much the market is down from that point I told her we were doing just fine. On paper it appears like a lot even at 3% if a portfolio is quite large. 50/50 is working well for us right now.

#318 AB Boxster on 01.20.16 at 3:06 pm

#297 Practical_Logical on 01.20.16 at 2:21 pm
#203 Johnny
——————————————-
You know the real reason that boomers want to grow old right?

It’s to see their grandchildren.

Not because boomers have any real love of grandchildren.

It’s mainly just the satisfaction of knowing that in 20 years, our kids (ie. your generation) will be listening to the same stupid BS that you are spouting towards the boomers, and that we gave our parents.

The Circle of Life is so special. (queue the Lion King)

#319 Vundo on 01.20.16 at 3:06 pm

The stuff I invest in is on sale. The currency I buy things with recovered a little bit. It was a pretty morning for me.

#320 bdy sktrn on 01.20.16 at 3:07 pm

cpd already pricing in the next cut. .

11.08 Down 0.30(2.64%) 2:49PM EST

us 10yr breaks 2%. rates are rising later, much later.

#321 Tom Stephenson on 01.20.16 at 3:07 pm

To Goofy 2 Shoes

You are right on. People don’t look at how hard you worked for something and to make a better life for their family even after boomers pass away.

They are jealous, entitled and always complain and blame people over and over for their bad decisions and mistakes.

This equality and robin hood like mentality is going to destroy this country if it keeps continuing like this.

#322 bdy sktrn on 01.20.16 at 3:10 pm

take profits now on 250 dow bounce as called from -547

#323 TurnerNation on 01.20.16 at 3:12 pm

325th?
Royal Wank of What land saying “Buy Everything”.

#324 Dups on 01.20.16 at 3:21 pm

US Markets now are up in the green. In the profit it goes. It is all games. Nothing really changed other than fear.

#325 Godth on 01.20.16 at 3:21 pm

It’s funny how Garth can get these same generation wars going so easily – push button, sit back, and watch it all unfold; rinse and repeat.

It’s a math problem that’s been going on for 5000 yrs. How to solve it? Write-offs or war?

Don’t worry boomers the whiny millenials will suffer, that’s a natural limits guarantee. It’s estimated that the world’s oceans will be virtually fished out by 2040-2050 (we’re well on the way) so that will be exciting. Who knows, some boomers may still be around to enjoy some serious schadenfreude.

#326 bdy sktrn on 01.20.16 at 3:33 pm

400+ point bounce off bottom. whew. tomorrow is for giving it back. the bear is global.

1290 dow is target for re entry

#327 NoName on 01.20.16 at 3:34 pm

@cjbob & Bri

Dollar Cost Average vs Lump Sum Investing

If you can time a market and take most of your positions in market “going” down, DCA will outperform LSI, and that is only scenario that DCA beats LSI.


What DCA does wery well is defers/hides a risk.
Asset allocation is more important because it “controls” the risk.
</b.

http://www.moneychimp.com/features/dollar_cost.htm

#328 Brazil ex-pat on 01.20.16 at 3:44 pm

#278 IHCTD9 on 01.20.16 at 12:56 pm
#203 johnny on 01.20.16 at 9:13 am
Geez..Garth did someone say something bad about the beloved baby boomers..poor babies. The generation which grew up with everything handed to them..lots of good jobs which they still cling on to..inheriting all that money from their parents who saved like crazy because they lived through the depression. Those same boomers who benefited by far the most from our 600 billion dollars in debt..who are retiring with nice fat pensions..the generation that thinks they are just so cool and important.
Sorry Garth IMO there is no contest..the baby boomers are easily the most self-absorbed and selfish age group around who frankly are responsible for a lot of the mess we are currently in.
____________________________________________

My parents were early boomers. Came here with my Grandparents from a bombed out country and busted their ass farming to scratch out a meager existence. Dad was a shift worker, Mom cleaned houses, they drove used cars and bought “fixer upper” houses. They are semi retired now on CPP and OAS – they’ll never be fully retired. They are content, no one has ever handed them anything, even after 57 years of working (and counting).

You son, don’t know what hardship is compared to most boomers IMHO. Kids these days seem to think the world owes them a living, and anyone who has one – had it handed to them.

You will amount to little with your attitude. Blame the boomers all you want, my bet is when they’re all dead and gone, you’ll still be in the same position you are in now, albeit probably with a new demographic to aim your pointy finger at for your troubles.

Good luck buddy.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

While you are correct about people today being whiney, people often forget that Boomers did not pay the outrageous amount of taxes and fees that young people do today. We left BC because of the 60+ percent taxes all in it cost to live there on top of super expensive….well everything.

Please all you pro boomer people. Remember this. Boomers paid way way way less than people today and no. No way have salaries kept up with housing pricing and taxes, fees and levies. Not even close. And don’t pull out some govt chart because they never include the other 37 taxes you pay daily just to live normal.

#329 Ft Mac House Guy on 01.20.16 at 4:14 pm

#102 For those about to flop… on 01.19.16 at 8:52 pm
Thinking about Fort Mac makes me scratch my head.
Sales are down 40% sounds impressive ,but that means that there is a lot of people that think getting a small discount (50k) is a bargain.
Why would you do this to yourself when the writing is on the wall?
You are still spending well over a half a million dollars to live in Fort Mac ,I won’t spend that on a house in the Couv.When it’s all done you will be in it for close to a million….there is something wrong with this picture.

M41BC

**************************************
Because people are stupid and pay no attention to what’s going on in the world/Canada/Alberta. I bought my house up in Fort Mac right as the market peaked in 2008 and started to come down. It was the first deal my RE agent made where he put in an offer lower than asking price (1%). My uncle warned me not to buy, but I didn’t listen. I didn’t care. I wanted a house.

Fast forward 6 years and after learning if I would have just waited 6-12 months back in 2008, I could have saved $100k+, I saw the writing on the wall this time (and I had nightmare tenants which I was sick of) and I sold just as prices started to downturn again. I was probably one of the first that triggered the decline as I listed my house aggressively for a quick sale. I’m sure the suckers that bought my house were in the same position I was 6 years prior. I am also well educated, white collared office worker, so just imagine all the barely-have-their-grade-12 idiots working up there.

#330 Penny Henny on 01.20.16 at 4:17 pm

#306 Goofy 2 Shoes on 01.20.16 at 2:40 pm

Nothing handed to me – or my parents who were children during the depression and who ate bacon fat spread on home made bread for dinner.

////////////////////////////////////////

Mmmmmm. That sounds good. Garth why didn’t you get that instead of the donuts?

#331 Nanaimo Bar on 01.20.16 at 4:18 pm

Dear Bank Manager. On second thought, I will take that 30 year fixed mortgage. Thanks

#332 AB Boxster on 01.20.16 at 4:30 pm

#328 Brazil Ex-Pat
———————————————
I don’t think anyone is particularly pro-boomer.
People are reacting to anti-boomer comments.

The rise of taxes, increased fees, and levies is very concerning and impacts younger generations.
Similarly for house costs (BC especially) and education costs.
As well as for job prospects.

Why are these costs escalating so much and what to do about them?
What can be done to make the Canadian economy grow more jobs?

Better politicians maybe?
Better management of govt budgets?
More intervention in the housing market?
More investment in industry?

To say that because the boomers had ‘reasonable’ house prices compared to today is a fair comment.

To say that the boomers were all a bunch of aholes because they had this situation misses the point.

The only real power that one has to affect change is through their ballot or pocketbook.

What politician today has a platform to address the following?

Housing Costs
Tax Increases
Education Costs
Youth under and unemployment

Our current federal gov’ts focus is:
climate change
refugees
equity and social justice
raising taxes
increasing govt debt

All brought to you by a non-boomer PM

If your priorities are not being adressed by our leaders then what is your generation doing about it?
Trashing the boomers is pointless.

#333 Not that easy - Realties.ca on 01.20.16 at 4:35 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/19/not-that-easy/ […]

#334 waiting on the westcoast on 01.20.16 at 4:45 pm

#306 Goofy 2 Shoes on 01.20.16 at 2:40 pm
“I worked for two collection agencies right out of high school from 1983 – 1987. That was an education on the importance of saving and the risk of living beyond your means. Horrible stories of people suddenly losing everything because they had it all but the bank owned it. They lost their job, got sick, etc. It was the worst job I’ve ever had to do because these people were in situations similar to today. High debt, little savings, and economic conditions outside their control.”

I love this idea and will present to my son that he should do it for 6 months to hear the stories! Great opportunity to learn the consequences of not being prepared.

#335 MF on 01.20.16 at 4:52 pm

All this generation conflict is so tiring. We millennials are a pathetic generation copying our pathetic boomer generation parents. They went into debt and that’s why we are going into (more) debt. Loser boomers who were unsuccessful in capitalizing on the tons of opportunities now whine about us millennials. Us millennials who are losers and pissed off about being losers whine about boomers. Simple, really.

MF

#336 Practical_Logical on 01.20.16 at 4:52 pm

@ 318 AB Boxster
Myself am a fairly successful Gen Xer with a young family.

STILL…..Johnny is spot on about the Boomers!

On the other side of the coin, these millenials are fueling this debt orgy because they think they will be priced out forever, and need all the toys Now!

#337 Nanaimo Bar on 01.20.16 at 4:58 pm

Dear City of Vancouver. Thank you for the offering me the position as data entry clerk in the Property Tax Arrears Department. One quick question, does overtime include meal money? Thanks

#338 MF on 01.20.16 at 5:00 pm

Gen X is the REAL enemy ;)

They snuck in and bought houses in 1999-2005 when no one cared about chitty Toronto/Vancouver, and then rode the market. They are the ones buying and moving up the latter, owning umteen rental properties, acting like nuveau rich Donald Trump RE moguls smug with their new young and families…. all while in debt.

MF

#339 Capt. Obvious on 01.20.16 at 5:26 pm

Dollar Cost Average vs Lump Sum Investing

If you can time a market and take most of your positions in market “going” down, DCA will outperform LSI, and that is only scenario that DCA beats LSI.

Value averaging is better than DCA (usually). Basically you have a planned sequence of investments from a lump sum that are invested over time (could be added to an existing portfolio), accelerated if the already invested amount declines, and decelerated if the already invested amount increases.
Mainly the benefit of DCA or VA is taking emotion out of the investment decision and making it a regular action. Given markets rise more than fall, lump sum investing is the best for long time horizons.

#340 Capt. Obvious on 01.20.16 at 5:33 pm

They snuck in and bought houses in 1999-2005 when no one cared about chitty Toronto/Vancouver, and then rode the market.

Well to be fair, nobody saw interest rates trending to zero. Housing was expensive in 2005. It’s now just stratospheric. It shouldn’t have worked out, but it did. Lucky them (though likely they do not even realize how lucky they’ve been).

#341 Nanaimo Bar on 01.20.16 at 5:39 pm

#338 MF
They snuck in and bought houses in 1999-2005 when no one
————————————————————–
Yup. The mistake Canada made was 2006 when the U.S. housing started to decline. Canada should have put on the brakes. They fought the Fed and now they will have to pay back 9 years back to vultures. This is where the Bond Boys start to salivate over an easy meal. As it is written.

#342 Godth on 01.20.16 at 5:43 pm

#335 MF on 01.20.16 at 4:52 pm

I think it goes a bit deeper than that though, there are deep systemic, structural, values, mindsets that are going to have to change one way or another. The crazier it gets the more people engage in denial and the blame game.

I have no doubt that in 20 yrs. the phrase “conspicuous consumption” will be a bad memory spoken with contempt. People won’t be wasting 40% of the food (like we do in N.A.) and a luxury will mean something very different than it does today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhbQTDDHd8E

#343 JimH on 01.20.16 at 5:51 pm

#198 WallOfWorry on 01.20.16 at 8:49 am
“@#185- Leo Tollstoy….seems like a pretty ignorant comment no? If you bought gold in CA $ last year and sold today you would be up over 20%? I bet that is a helluva a lot better than your balanced portfolio?”
=================================
Um, sorry to burst your bubble, WallOfWorry!
20%? seems like a pretty ignorant comment, no?

If you bought gold in $CAD this time last year, you would have paid over $1600; Gold is running $1597 today. It would be about a wash.

If you managed to pick the May 2015 bottom, you would have paid $1430CAD. You’d be up 11.4%

If you managed to pick the July bottom of $1429CAD, you’d be up 12.5%

If you got really lucky and picked the bottom last November at $1407CAD, you’d be up 13.5%

Buying during most of last year would have resulted in much lower gains.

Sorry; no 20%. Not even close!

This of course makes you an absolute genius at picking absolute bottoms. I think your skill in that department might just be as suspect as your math skills.

Of course, it also ignores any and all transaction and handling fees, &etc.

WallOfWorry, you have every right to pimp gold all you want. It’s just not alright to peddle bullshit.

check your numbers:
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

#344 For those about to flop... on 01.20.16 at 6:36 pm

#329 Ft Mac House Guy on 01.20.16 at 4:14 pm
#102 For those about to flop… on 01.19.16 at 8:52 pm
Thinking about Fort Mac makes me scratch my head.
Sales are down 40% sounds impressive ,but that means that there is a lot of people that think getting a small discount (50k) is a bargain.
Why would you do this to yourself when the writing is on the wall?
You are still spending well over a half a million dollars to live in Fort Mac ,I won’t spend that on a house in the Couv.When it’s all done you will be in it for close to a million….there is something wrong with this picture.

M41BC

**************************************
Because people are stupid and pay no attention to what’s going on in the world/Canada/Alberta. I bought my house up in Fort Mac right as the market peaked in 2008 and started to come down. It was the first deal my RE agent made where he put in an offer lower than asking price (1%). My uncle warned me not to buy, but I didn’t listen. I didn’t care. I wanted a house.

Fast forward 6 years and after learning if I would have just waited 6-12 months back in 2008, I could have saved $100k+, I saw the writing on the wall this time (and I had nightmare tenants which I was sick of) and I sold just as prices started to downturn again. I was probably one of the first that triggered the decline as I listed my house aggressively for a quick sale. I’m sure the suckers that bought my house were in the same position I was 6 years prior. I am also well educated, white collared office worker, so just imagine all the barely-have-their-grade-12 idiots working up there.

////////////////////////////////////////

Well brother ,it sounds like there are a few lessons in there for a few folk but I don’t think the majority are paying attention ,like you said.
Good luck to you in the future.

M41BC

#345 gut check on 01.20.16 at 6:53 pm

damn it, it looks like I missed the ‘Who Had it Worse’ show.

Gen X is used to it – you guys keep whining while we get sh!t done around here.

#346 Soothsayer on 01.21.16 at 9:04 am

China appears to be slowing more than at first expected and taking oil prices lower, Europe has yet to recover from the Great Financial Crisis, and political unrest continues in the Middle East. The US economy appears to be somewhat isolated and is forecasting continued improvement in 2016, which will put further downward pressure on the Canadian dollar. Investors are reminded to manage their financial arrangements prudently in these uncertain economic times.