When beavers go bad

AB JOB modified

Will rates fall on Wednesday? Should they? Are we screwed if they do?

More on that below. First a small snapshot of reality.

Jason’s parents, in their seventies, owned a good house in a peachy part of Edmonton for the forty years. They sold a few weeks ago after their blog-addled son prodded for change. “They love the new condo, and are shocked as to how much more money they have!” he says.

All good. But in the process the parentals came face-to-face with the new reality – a slagging economy and bad info. “Point of interest,” adds Jason, “they were offered $455,000 for their house April of 2014 and chose to not sell. When they finally sold in November, they got $320,000. Oops… But compared to this time next year, I think they got a good deal and they are happy.”

Well, that’s a 29% haircut on a detached house in a major Canadian capital city that’s not even at the epicentre of the oil thing. Is any of this hurt being reflected in real estate board stats? Nope. According to local realtor boss, Geneva (Giggles) Tetreault, we’re an ocean of stability:

“2015 was a steady year for real estate in Edmonton. Edmonton and the surrounding areas experienced a decline in sales due to economic uncertainty, but we saw a slight increase in price that demonstrated that the market remained relatively stable.”

The board says sales were down 9% but prices increased 1% – which is all you need to know about realtor math. Yet another example – like Po’ Bill Morneau, who said days ago “Outside investors should be confident about Canada.” – that we’re now a nation of smelly little mushrooms. Kept in the dark. Fed crap.

Oil is at $28, which is 73% less than two years ago. The dollar is 68 cents US. That’s a decline of 11% since T2 was elected and 29% lower than when Stephen Poloz took over the Bank of Canada twenty-eight months ago. The currency has taken a beating in the last week or two on worries Poloz might be ready to cut the central bank’s key rate on Wednesday morning. Again.

DOLLAR

About half of economists think a rate is coming next week. A majority believe one will materialize sometime this year. Everybody got a little rattled last month when the guy gave a speech actually saying the bank would adopt a negative rate if conditions warranted it. With oil down more, the loonie crippled, the street economy declining and negative sentiment swirling around Canada, more people are starting to question whether Poloz knows what he’s doing. There are also many who feel a cut this week would be extreme, and wrong.

Last week bank execs warned another cut here (there were two last year, while the US just raised rates) would hurt margins and presumably lead to the layoff of a ton of people. The head of the national manufacturers association, which you’d think would cheer a cut, says Poloz’s doomer gig is hurting Canada. “The advice right now would be to even take a look at increasing interest rates by a quarter of a point. Interest rates are low already. A little bit of dollar stability would be better.”

CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld is also arguing for brakes: “Cutting interest rates at this point’s mostly about weakening the exchange rate to help exports, and there the hazard is the exchange rate is already weakening on its own. There is a risk of setting off too quick a reduction in the exchange rate that hurts consumer confidence.”

Scotiabank’s econo dudes have the same message: “Cutting rates risks further inflaming sectors already in a state of imbalance, notably housing, while doing little for the rest of the economy.” Worse, more cuts which bring a weaker dollar will cause “massive price inflation” hitting Canadian consumers “for years to come.”

National Bank says a rate cut this week will deliver a 66-cent dollar, and a mess of trouble: “Currency instability has become a concern, and we think the Bank of Canada must take note. For Canadian businesses, currency depreciation has already sent the price of machinery and equipment (73% of which is imported) to a new record high. This is bound to complicate Canada’s transition to a less energy-intensive economy.”

Poloz looks a one-trick pony. By carving interest to the bone he seems bent on devaluing the dollar to the point where we’re just too cheap to ignore – then more of our exports move, Yanks pour across the border to load up on Tim’s Fruit Explosion muffins and the oil sands guys keep pumping because they sell in US dollars while paying workers in fading dolarettes.

But the strategy has a dark side. It guarantees $8 cauliflower, promotes more borrowing by an undisciplined nation, adds real estate risk, discourages investing, penalizes savers and casts a Banana Republic kinda pall over the whole country. After all, when your central bank won’t defend your currency, who the hell will? Money that loses a third of its value against the global standard makes everybody poorer. Is this the best strategy they could come up with?

Wednesday’s an unknown. But the odds are a rate cut is coming then or on March 9th. Now, aren’t you glad you took this pathetic blog’s portfolio advice years ago to have less maple and a fifth in US bucks?

Of course, once the rate hike happens it might be time to vultch.

276 comments ↓

#1 Big D on 01.18.16 at 5:57 pm

I went to see a bank adviser last week and I was surprised to see that he told me that I should sell some of low MER 60/40 mutual fund and trade it for another one that is mostly bonds ( spread globally) with MER that is about 50% higher.Since I feel that it is probably the worst time to be dumping balanced anything we talked it over. The conclusion was that 60/40 if re -balanced often now will rebound nicely in near future. Mr. Turner: Thank you for free and timely education, keep holding everybody’s hand off the “sale button “. Most 60/40 portfolios rebounded in a year after 2008, so as you said….take a vacation and let things settle a bit…or take bank’s advice : “sell everything “ and put a down payment for a cauliflower .

#2 Steve on 01.18.16 at 5:59 pm

Yes but housing are going up … 9% for 2016 / average Toronto price will be $665,000 according to CREA

#3 Love my Kia on 01.18.16 at 6:04 pm

Complaining is easy. What’s the solution?

Garth, if you were running the country what would you do given the implications of those decisions? There’s gonna be hurt no matter what.

#4 soakedinVancouver on 01.18.16 at 6:05 pm

I agree that the rate should not be cut – the CAD is getting pushed around enough as it is… we need some confidence and stability right now.

#5 fancy_pants on 01.18.16 at 6:05 pm

rest assured the BofC has your back…

“We are Canada’s central bank. We work to preserve the value of money by keeping inflation low and stable.”

… unfortunately they have your back bent over a table with an inflationary thermometer spreading lies

#6 Nanaimo Bar on 01.18.16 at 6:06 pm

Great article. Garth, you belong somewhere else. You belong with the lights on Broadway.

A couple of things missing from my portfolio is the transportation sector and oil refineries. Man, Bombardier is looking tempting. Might have to barter with my broker on that one, though. Lol. Small fleet is definitely in need. But who is going to SnapBack my Canadian neck problem after I leave his office. I would have to consult with a medical specialist first. Trade bartering could be the new norm. Lol

#7 Arfmooocat on 01.18.16 at 6:07 pm

Another rate cut will do nothing to stimulate our economy

It will cause Canadians to hermit even more because they can’t afford the inflated cost of imports.

#8 S.Bby on 01.18.16 at 6:07 pm

Interest rate cut could severely affect consumers:

http://globalnews.ca/news/2460262/interest-rate-cut-may-deliver-hammer-blow-to-consumers-experts/

Sure hope we don’t get thrown under the bus on Wednesday.

#9 Love my Kia on 01.18.16 at 6:08 pm

DOW is down almost 2X as much as the TSX today (yet again). Sure looks like a trend and I think the Fed may cut. Gold isn’t even responding favorably. What is one to make of all of this?

#10 palebird on 01.18.16 at 6:10 pm

Hmmm I seem to remember that Jean Chretian and his merry band of Liberals thought a low Canadian dollar was wonderful because it helped some of our exporters. Never mind all of the other people getting beat up by it. Looks like Justin is just playing follow the donkee.. seemed to work for Jean and Paul..although the circumstances are quite different this time around.

#11 Nanaimo Bar on 01.18.16 at 6:11 pm

Flat All Around

USD was flat against the Commonwealth, Non Boston Tea Party, Big Three Commodity Currencies (Canada, Australia, New Zealand). Crude and Brent Oil were stable.

With the US stock market closed, volume was low. Civil rights leaders marched to the South Carolina Statehouse to pay homage to the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. For the first time in 17 years, the dark shadows of the Confederate flag were absent. The world is slowing changing for the better.

Figured it would be a good time to reactivate my eBay account and order that book that keeps appearing on my screen, “The Amplified Guide to Emerging Market Currencies. How to get started”, By Nicholas Josephina. It is being sold by eBay seller “Fly by Night Book Store”. The store has a 99.4% positive rating with over 140,000 positive feedbacks.

According to his Facebook profile, Nicholas is a well known in the financial industry for his investment expertise and his top down approach in fundamental analysis of global economies. His self proclaimed skill sets include; investing, economic forecasting, financial modelling, geopolitical analysis, stock research, commodities, portfolio management, and business strategy.

Who can argue with a guy that writes for leading Media outlets such as; Seeking Alpha, Zero Hedge, Future Magazine, The Market Oracle and Rense? I’m surely not qualified to argue with that resume.

The beauty is that I don’t have to bid on the book. I can “Buy it Now” for $20.26 USD.

But whoa, whoa, whoa. Just wait a minute. They want $12.95 USD for standard shipping. Great, now I have to wait 6 weeks for the book in the mail. I might have to do some more research on “Fly by Night Book Store”. Maybe I should pay attention to the 845 negative posts.

The moral of the story, be careful of those Click Bait Ads. They know more about you than you know about yourself.

In other words, sometimes you have to turn off the Classic, Camarilla, Fibonacci and Woodie charts. Let the Force and logic guide you.

In unrelated news, tomorrow will be a marking day of renewed relations between the U.S. and Iran. Innocent Americans, held against their will, will be returning home to the arms of loved ones. Iranian Nationals, some convicted of federal crimes, have already been released from US prisons. However they don’t want to go home. It’s a US holiday after all.

The only said part was watching Republicans and Democrats batting it out on Twitter. Arguing about why the hostages were released. The Republicans stated that their prayers were answered by God. The Democrats countered that it was the skillfull work of diplomacy. Rather than fight about something good, why can’t we just say that it was a victory for God and diplomacy.

I do find it rather odd though, that it was exactly to day, January 20th, 1981, 52 American hostages were released from Iran. I can remember that day 35 years ago as being rather odd as well. The release was just minutes before Jimmy Carter handed the presidency over to Ronald Reagan. Reagan made no reference to the released hostages until the Americans had left Iranian air space.

The US and Iran have also settled a longstanding Iranian claim for 400 million debt which dated back to the Iranian revolution in 1981. The U.S. wrote a check to Iran for $1.7 billion because of interest. See, it pays to be long term investor.

#12 powder_hound86 on 01.18.16 at 6:15 pm

Garth I have a question for you ?

How is it ‘Doomer’ to suggest the BOC or the FED are manipulating stats to be more favorable then reality but not ‘Doomer’ to suggest major city realtor boards are manipulating average price figures?

#13 Capt. Critical on 01.18.16 at 6:15 pm

You forgot to photoshop in the dangling nut sacs on the back of the pickups!

#14 JSS on 01.18.16 at 6:16 pm

I’m on a variable rate mortgage. If the BoC does cut the rate, say 25 bp, I wonder if I’ll see any of it.

If the banks don’t pass some savings, then this is a wasted effort from Poloz. In fact, it’s even more screwed up with the high price of imports (Canada pretty much imports everything)

===

BTW, i cooked the $6 cauliflower that i bought last night. I ate it really really slowly in small bites. Savored every bite. And I divided the cauliflower very carefully among all family members.

It may be several years down the line when I get to eat cauliflower again. Who knows.

Wednesday will surely tell the truth.

#15 powder_hound86 on 01.18.16 at 6:17 pm

“But the strategy has a dark side. It guarantees $8 cauliflower, promotes more borrowing by an undisciplined nation, adds real estate risk, discourages investing, penalizes savers and casts a Banana Republic kinda pall over the whole country. After all, when your central bank won’t defend your currency, who the hell will? Money that loses a third of its value against the global standard makes everybody poorer. Is this the best strategy they could come up with?”

This is what financial repression looks like.

What would rates settle at if they were determined by supply of investor’s capital and demand for debt? My guess would be not zero..

#16 Silent the people on 01.18.16 at 6:18 pm

In 2015, British Columbia had it’s third strongest real estate market on record, as reported by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®).* Now is the beginning of a new year, and a great opportunity to review market projections for 2016.

That is what MLS is spouting!

We need honest advertising that does not cherry pick
information!

Good post Garth

Note: Yeah Garth, how would you handle this situation?

#17 Hotdogs from Heaven on 01.18.16 at 6:19 pm

Geeeeez!

All this and Glenn Frey too.

2016 really, really, really, really sucks so far.

Can’t we just start 2017 now and be done with it?

#18 Capt. Obvious on 01.18.16 at 6:22 pm

After all, when your central bank won’t defend your currency, who the hell will?

This. The BofC would accomplish nothing by cutting rates further.

#19 jim on 01.18.16 at 6:22 pm

big increases in travel costs…european trip we took in 2013 is about 50%more…i hate vegetables but my wife makes me eat them…she’s buying canadian frozen…cauliflower hasn’t gone up there …we’re buying a tent trailer and discovering canada…gas has even gone down…it’s not that bad out there

#20 pinstripe on 01.18.16 at 6:23 pm

Many AB PC hacks are adamant that the SK premier is doing the right thing for SK. OTOH, no one knows what he is doing or going to do.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-construction-jobs-buildforce-labour-forecast-1.3408954

#21 Nick on 01.18.16 at 6:24 pm

Come on Canada I feel lucky, bring me a 65cent loonie this week. Who likes cauliflower anyway? Eggplant is where it’s at.

#22 sigh, yet another ‘Doomer’ report (YADR)…. on 01.18.16 at 6:25 pm

“Art Cashin, director of floor operations for UBS at the New York Stock Exchange, thinks that the rate hike of the Federal Reserve is one of the main reasons for the sell-off in the stock market. The highly respected Wall Street veteran fears that America will fall into a recession if the Fed doesn’t change its course and lowers interest rates back to zero.”

Mr. Cashin, you’re working on the floor of the stock exchange for almost six decades. During that time you have seen many difficult moments. How severe is the situation right now?

“It is very similar to what you get before you slip into a crisis. Also, it’s earnings season and because of that many corporate buybacks have to be paused during this period. That removes an important potential support for the market. Over the last year, companies buying back their own stock have put more money into the market than all of the public has. The cessation of those buybacks is probably a reason why we’re seeing the rather sharp selling that has occurred.”

sheesh, another ‘doomer’….get a grip Cashin and just think ‘long-term’…..

or maybe he’s just talking his ‘book’?….naw….

read some more ’nuggets’ from Mr. Cashin’s interview here:

http://www.fuw.ch/article/it-is-very-similar-to-what-you-get-before-you-slip-into-a-crisis/

#23 S.Bby on 01.18.16 at 6:28 pm

If the real estate boards are presenting fudged data, which appears to be the case, they should be brought up on fraud charges. Naive buyers (and probably even realtors) rely on that falsified data when purchasing so how much are buyers being suckered when they buy? The whole real estate industry really stinks.

#24 Nick on 01.18.16 at 6:30 pm

@#11 Nanaimo Bar – emerging market currencies are in a mad race to the bottom. Expect more STEEP falls all around. I’m living in a developing country myself, and though the government here has been propping up the local currency for the past year, word is the floodgates will soon be breached, due mostly to a long running Dollar crisis – USD crisis that is, they can’t get enough of them. So you have the oil producers hemorrhaging cash to prop up expensive social spending and oil importers in a race to attract FDI. There will be more blood before things settle out – hopefully it’s mostly metaphorical.

#25 mike from Mtl on 01.18.16 at 6:33 pm

Garth agreed, why even consider cutting our basically near-zero rate for ‘exports’, didn’t really work the first few times, so why again? What’s their thought.

Speaking of commodities, I regularly purchase (well known commodity) green coffees in the kilos. Yes in general the prices are lower but does that mean I quadruple my purchasing? Pfft no, so who cares about our wood and rocks exports if they’re on ‘sale’?

I guess more tactics from our “leadership” straight from the 19th century.

#26 Panhead on 01.18.16 at 6:33 pm

#17 Hotdogs from Heaven on 01.18.16 at 6:19 pm
Geeeeez!

All this and Glenn Frey too.

Yeah … what a bummer. Saw him the last two times the Eagles were out here in 604land. Both great shows too. Always figured Joe would be the first to go. But on the flip side that cauloflower that was $8.00 here last week is now $3.99…

#27 Victor V on 01.18.16 at 6:34 pm

#9 Love my Kia on 01.18.16 at 6:08 pm

DOW is down almost 2X as much as the TSX today (yet again). Sure looks like a trend and I think the Fed may cut. Gold isn’t even responding favorably. What is one to make of all of this?

—————–

US markets were closed today.

#28 Suede on 01.18.16 at 6:34 pm

Would be nice if the fixed income part of the balanced portfolio woke up a little bit.

Greater Fool poll question – what will happen first.

A) Oilers in the playoffs
B) Canadian prime rates rise
C) YVR and YYZ real estate returns to 2014 levels

#29 Doug t on 01.18.16 at 6:35 pm

It’s a race to the bottom – but what is the bottom. If you choose to believe the moronic mainstream media then yes everything is rosy in the U.S. – but real stats don’t lie and McJobs to create anything of value. China is hooped and if that keeps unraveling the way it appears to be going then the the West better pucker up because the house of cards that has been held together with extreme desperate measures since 2008 will collapse – enjoy the cauliflower while it’s cheap

#30 GTA Owner on 01.18.16 at 6:35 pm

Watched some financial advisors today (one from RJ’s) talking about the low loonie and investing in US markets. They all said that if you “had invested 2-3 years ago” you’re ok. But the question was what to new investors do now? You could see they had few answers for new investors with larger amounts to invest. One advisor said it’s too late. Unfortunately, cauliflower is not the only thing getting rarer. Larger new investments in balanced portfolios are also going to suffer. I think.

Did you guys never hear of buying low? — Garth

#31 Fluorine on 01.18.16 at 6:41 pm

#9 Love my Kia on 01.18.16 at 6:08 pm
DOW is down almost 2X as much as the TSX today (yet again)….

Uhh… you know that all the US markets were closed for MLK Day, right?

#32 Still confused on 01.18.16 at 6:42 pm

So a 100K job in Ontario equals 60K a year in the U.S. That’s what a U.S. Postal carrier makes. I bet you never thought you were doing so poorly?

#33 Love my Kia on 01.18.16 at 6:42 pm

Oops, DOW closed today! I’m so used to seeing these closing numbers at the end of the day…

Love the pic today! Doesn’t matter what the NDP does with the negative outlook, it will be bad for the government and its people. Sympathies to all those hurting families.

#34 Parsonage on 01.18.16 at 6:43 pm

Peak Cauliflower Alert!
In grocery store today. Cauliflower price tag on top of 3 tier display $7.99.
Suddenly one falls on the floor in front of me.
Stop to put it back on lower tier.
Notice a small price tag in bin that says $2.00 for all marked items. … 90% of the cauliflower were marked with a black sharpie – $2.00 (some had very small amount of discoloration)
Bought three. Checked the receipt.
Yup. $2.00

#35 rawdiswar on 01.18.16 at 6:44 pm

The loonie’s fallen in the thunder box, the PM’s wife thinks she’s auditioning for Canadian Idol, and half of Alberta is a pogey check away from eating moose nuts.

Seems Canada’s not as cocky as we were in ’08, when we all pulled a collective rotator cuff as we patted ourself on our back for having better banks and a sound economy.

Yeah right. Only the condo economy and the Oil Sands kept the shine on, and now it’s not long before the other pillar falls.

You can feel the pendulum swinging from Greed to Fear. That ought to separate the Wolves from the Sheep.

The cure for Global Warming? Nuclear Winter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlgei3gnNqs

#36 FRED on 01.18.16 at 6:45 pm

Mushroom analogy…..classic

#37 bubu on 01.18.16 at 6:45 pm

I think your Edmonton story is fiction… I follow the market very close and it is not true… I don’ t think it is fair to uniform your audience who is not in Edmonton…

If it’s fiction, it is not mine. — Garth

#38 RudyGQ on 01.18.16 at 6:46 pm

It is amazing to me how en vogue it can be at times to bash the USA from some of our less informed citizens. However, it would be negligent to ignore the huge benefit that is generated by Yankees on this Canadian economy. You don’t have to look far to see how thinly traded the TSX is and how little price action there is traded on US holidays. A leader in world innovation and market making, the US brings about one of the most important criterion in a healthy market and that is LIQUIDITY. In today’s world, liquid markets are vital in order to trade goods, services and create means for companies to build factories, buy inventory and hire employees.
In the words of the venerable Martin Luther King “All men (and ladies) are created equal”. This self-evident truth in concert with the ‘pursuit of happiness’ allows any person (of any age, race, gender, orientation) to freely achieve wealth without persecution or fear of confiscation (governments notwithstanding)

#39 Leo Trollstoy on 01.18.16 at 6:46 pm

Well, that’s a 29% haircut on a detached house in a major Canadian capital city

when is this coming to vancouver and toronto? plueeze?

#40 45north on 01.18.16 at 6:49 pm

Well, that’s a 29% haircut on a detached house in a major Canadian capital city. Is any of this hurt being reflected in real estate board stats? Nope. According to local realtor boss, Geneva Tetreault, we’re an ocean of stability:

a change in the sales mix hides a falling market. As Mark says

I assume that Jason’s parents owned their house outright so they could afford to drop the price

#41 We suck on 01.18.16 at 6:49 pm

If there is a rate cut it confirms just how much canada sucks, has always sucked and will continue to suck long into the future.

#42 Shawn on 01.18.16 at 6:50 pm

What if we’ve only seen the beginning of the $CAD decline. It has never fallen this quickly in history before. Perhaps it has MUCH lower to go. Remember that oil was $10/bbl as recently as 1999…

#43 For those about to flop... on 01.18.16 at 6:50 pm

I know that it’s not meant to be interconnected but although it was already sliding before an uptick on election juice the CAD only turned into a farce when Harpers Hummer driver hit the pedal and turned west.
Im not sure what has happened since …perhaps Daisy Mae will explain it to me….

M41BC

#44 bob the train on 01.18.16 at 6:52 pm

it’s ok, when the loonie reaches 50 cents, he’s going to be forced to raise rates by the simple fact his mandate is to maintain an inflation target or 1-3%. that won’t be pretty. just look at the Russian Ruble.

#45 kamilapea on 01.18.16 at 6:52 pm

I recently told a co-worker the asking price for a respectable recent SD slap dans le ville de champignons was. He said, “Edmonton is not worth that!” funny how many got sucked in for more than Jason’s parents were initially offered for a place that has two seasons (winter and July). Little wonder politicians have allowed the situation to go on: they get the jobs, banks with a loan book big enough to pay widow and orphan divvys and a population that can’t run for the exits account the chip board ball and chain they snapped up.

#46 earthboundmisfit on 01.18.16 at 6:54 pm

@#10 Love My Kia
Hello!?! The DOW/SP500/Nasdaq were closed today for MLK Jr. Day. Try to keep up.

#47 Ex-Cowtown on 01.18.16 at 6:56 pm

#9 Love my Kia on 01.18.16 at 6:08 pm

DOW is down almost 2X as much as the TSX today (yet again). Sure looks like a trend and I think the Fed may cut. Gold isn’t even responding favorably. What is one to make of all of this?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

US markets were closed today. MLK Day. You were looking at Fridays bloodbath. Oil traded for a while but did close down another $0.48. Yahoo…..

On the bright side of the news, Hillary’s campaign tweeted that “No bank is too big to fail and that no one is too big too jail”. The response was instantaneous and rabid, with an avalanche of people tweeting her back to see if that statement applied to her as well.

Her campaign is in panic mode and sending out PR minions to float the trial balloon that the FBI won’t indict her because it would “interfere” with the elections. Guffaws and scoffs to this stupidity were even voiced her former friends in the media.

There may be hope for the US of A yet….

#48 Alberta Ed on 01.18.16 at 6:58 pm

Not to worry. Even as we speak, T2 is huddled with the Great Brains of his cabinet somewhere in the wilds of NB, strategizing. Then he’s off to Davos to wow the likes of Bono and Leonardo with his mastery of selfies.

#49 ken on 01.18.16 at 6:58 pm

Getting off topic for a second regarding the talking heads at the FED,
I’m wondering what China’s 4th quarter GDP numbers will look like tomorrow? I keep trying to remind myself we are a resource based economy, yet you’d think Canada was a housing based economy listening to Global News

#50 Drill Baby Drill on 01.18.16 at 6:59 pm

What are the odds of Poloz raising by 0.25% on Wed.?

#51 Randy on 01.18.16 at 7:00 pm

Rename the Bank of Canada ? ——> Fed2

#52 Bram on 01.18.16 at 7:02 pm

I have my doubts about that anecdote, Garth.

Teranet tells us that Edmonton is pretty much flat.
A little up over 2014, a little down over 2015.

That matches up with neither Jason’s tale, nor Geneva’s numbers.

Maybe there are other factors at play for this particular house. Zoning changed? Edmonton unveiled plans for a nearby prison/windmill/social-housing?

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.aspx

Bram

#53 TurnerNation on 01.18.16 at 7:02 pm

Richer than we thing?

Remember when people ate food not to (you know) starve?
Downtown TO especially, tons of new, fancy food prep and coffee places exhorting us to Crave, Eat fresh their $10-15+ lunch items.
That their food will “Nourish the soul” or “Energize the body”.
Even low end sport bar chain Shoeless Joes is advertising their “Chef Inspired” menus. Like wth.

I, On King St. W this weekend in a 5 min walk counted five new Mercedes autocars passing by in each direction. The new normal.

#54 common sense on 01.18.16 at 7:03 pm

My guess is that he will postpone the rate cut til March.

He has taken enough heat for the cuts last year.

Let’s see who wins….Mr. Poloz ego or the USD?

Well, on this most gloomy day of the year, who says 2016 hasn’t been interesting?

And to salute MLK for one of my favourite quotes of all time..”It’s not the words of my enemies that scare me.
It’s the silence of my friends…” Let Freedom Ring.

#55 David on 01.18.16 at 7:05 pm

What would rates settle at if they were determined by supply of investor’s capital and demand for debt? My guess would be not zero..

Perhaps hardly greater than zero as we’re likely in a situation where we have excess capital and few looking to put that capital to work.
https://www.fidelity.de/static/pdf/institutional/investment-management/excess-capital-keep-real-rates-low.pdf

Of course the von Mises types will vociferously stress the impossibility of such a situation.

#56 Bdwway skytrane on 01.18.16 at 7:06 pm

Love my Kia. The freaky thing is that the dow and sp AND nasdaq are down EXACTLY the same points as Fri. It’s a damn conspiracy I tell you!

#57 Leo Trollstoy on 01.18.16 at 7:12 pm

DOW is down almost 2X as much as the TSX today (yet again).

i don’t think the dow opens on martin luther king day

#58 DreamingInTechnicolour on 01.18.16 at 7:13 pm

If I were the Bank of Canada – I would shake the tree until the loose bark came off – e.g. raise interest rates – give everyone a taste of reality. Let the market forces take over – e.g get older folks living in huge houses in the inners cores to start downsizing and encouraging the ones who have borrowed beyond belief out in the burbs to list their homes. Feed the market with supply to bring the market back into balance. Otherwise Canada just keeps the merry go round going around until the music stops. Once the US starts getting more active with rate increases – alot of people are going to be screwed anyway. Better to get them moving into something more realistic for their needs now while there is still some hope for a place they can afford. Everyone wins – the banks, the buyers and sellers and most importantly the CMHC – which really is all the Canadian taxpayers from one of the country to the other. Time to bite the bullet.

#59 Lulu on 01.18.16 at 7:15 pm

Poloz, please raise at least .25 bp on Wednesday, don’t be selfish to protect all those undisciplined bunch just for the sake of it. I thought the BoC will raise rate to defend our currency when it’s 20 % less.

Think smart, even you can sustain the housing market but if consumer product and inflation is keep rising, those home owner may not be able to afford their house anymore even tho they are willing to eat drywall.

#60 Leo Trollstoy on 01.18.16 at 7:16 pm

did jason fib?

#61 conan on 01.18.16 at 7:17 pm

Love my Kia…….

Martin Luther King, Jr. Day is today and all the USA stock markets were closed.

I guess did not want to say anything,,,

#62 Frank on 01.18.16 at 7:20 pm

I’ve said before it would be terrible. That said it sound like you’re coming around to the idea that negative rates might happen given Poloz’s MO

#63 Sideshow Rob on 01.18.16 at 7:21 pm

“DOW is down almost 2X as much as the TSX today (yet again). Sure looks like a trend and I think the Fed may cut. Gold isn’t even responding favorably. What is one to make of all of this?”

/////////////////////////////

????

Dow wasn’t down at all today. All US exchanges are closed.

#64 MSM-Free Zone on 01.18.16 at 7:22 pm

Today’s U-Haul financial barometer (15′ truck):

Calgary-Vancouver:….$759
Vancouver-Calgary:….$571

#65 ken on 01.18.16 at 7:24 pm

Bdwway skytrane

US Markets are closed Today, Your seeing Friday’s numbers

#66 IKnow on 01.18.16 at 7:26 pm

How much Edmonton house price go down will be the same as his much Vancouver’s will go up.

This is the street wisdom in Vancouver ad have been working crazily well the past 12 years!
We have dim sum and on Chiba’s rader, Edmonton has none.

#67 Nanaimo Bar on 01.18.16 at 7:27 pm

# 22 sigh, yet another Doomer
————————————————-
You nailed it. The days of making easy money off the Fed are over. Forget about one and done……it will be four and a whole lot more. The deafening sounds of the Republican drums will be ringing in the Fed’s ears.

#68 For those about to flop... on 01.18.16 at 7:33 pm

#35 earthboundmisfit on 01.18.16 at 6:54 pm
@#10 Love My Kia
Hello!?! The DOW/SP500/Nasdaq were closed today for MLK Jr. Day. Try to keep up.

///////////////////////////////

My favourite MLK Jr quote was ” It will be a great day for America when the stock market is open on the 18th of January , I look forward to that day…”

M41BC

#69 Andrew on 01.18.16 at 7:35 pm

Garth – You repeatedly say how important it is to have a globally diversified portfolio, but in my limited time investing (a year or so) I’ve generally noticed that the vast majority of the time, global stocks follow that of US stocks. Every news article I read is along the lines of:

“Japan shares down on US woes”
“FTSE 100 follows US shares higher”

etc. etc.

What’s the point in being globally diversified when everything follows the US anyway?

Admittedly Canadian stocks seem to be in a world of their own, but most the major stock markets seem to follow the US anyway. Are there ever times where the US market has plummeted and other global markets soared, or vice versa?

To me it seems the US is the metaphorical sun and every other stock market revolves around it.

#70 Catherine Bigg on 01.18.16 at 7:39 pm

DELETED

#71 Brian Ripley on 01.18.16 at 7:40 pm

“The advice right now would be to even take a look at increasing interest rates by a quarter of a point. Interest rates are low already. A little bit of dollar stability would be better.” Head of the national manufacturers association.

I know it’s boring to look at every month, but my chart that tracks Household Debt, GDP, Foreign Direct Investment and Balance of Trade:

http://www.chpc.biz/household-debt.html

…demonstrates that net Foreign Direct Investment flipped in 2005 and saw net investment money leave Canada for better returns, like in Mexico. And then in the 2008 crash net negative FDI widened, and the latest data points have widened even more.

Our dollar devaluation policy has not kicked in. So from this perspective a rate cut does seem like it will not help exporters because for the last 10 years we have been exporting net investment and that’s a trend that is hard to turn around when global competition for sales is on.

Trump is talking trade wars to bring jobs back to the U.S. This does not look good for labour that is already under pressure from technology as “software eats the world” Marc Andreessen

#72 William of the North on 01.18.16 at 7:42 pm

“After all, when your central bank won’t defend your currency, who the hell will?”

Answer: Real money…. which historically is gold and silver. Which I know, I know, you don’t want to hear. But it would of protected your “cash (currency)” in the latest devaluing of the Canuckistan or canadian peso, as Garth has put it.

Garth; you can keep silver and gold in an RRSP or TFSA with certificates. (you can actually hold physical gold and silver in your RRSP, but of course there are storage costs.) How do you feel about this strategy now? Would it be a strategy to consider? It just seem Silver and Gold have more upside, than say real estate or the stock market. Even if you just wanted to sit out the ‘correction’ in cash….. why not sit it out it money?

PMs are not money. — Garth

#73 Paul Stamos on 01.18.16 at 7:50 pm

You mean people like being taxed more and more because inflation through currency devaluation progressed by the Bank of Canada and the Federal government is a form of a tax.

Even lefties, Liberals and those that like taxes put on people that are more successful then will feel the higher prices pain.

You wanted low interest rates now pay the piper debt binged Canadians.

#74 Smartalox on 01.18.16 at 7:50 pm

@ Captain Critical #13:

Those pickups have been castrated as a result of the economy. Either that, or they sold them off for fuel.

I was talking with an employment lawyer from Calgary while holidaying with the family on Maui: he said that a lot of his practice has been fighting for severance for energy company office workers who agreed to be employed as contractors (higher initial income, but less job security, no severance, and u-pay benefits) but who were de-facto employees of these companies for years before being laid off.

I said I doubted many of his clients would win their cases, and he agreed, though he noted that he got paid for trying.

#75 Smoking Man on 01.18.16 at 7:52 pm

He’s got to cut, no choice.

Who in there right mind would invest in Ontario, Alberta or the rest of Canada, now that we have elected a Greek governments province and national.

No one.

He’s got to cut not to enhance investments, he got to cut and kill the dollar to keep the rest of business from leaving.

#76 Musty Basement Dweller on 01.18.16 at 7:52 pm

Garth you really can’t blame the yanks for coming here to load up on Tims fruit explosion muffins. They’re freaking awesome. Maybe even worth having a a staycation this year instead of snow birding. :)

#77 vic guy on 01.18.16 at 7:55 pm

I hope they lower rates, charging interest on any loan is usury and should be punishable by hanging or lethal injection.

#78 cramar on 01.18.16 at 7:56 pm

How many cauliflowers can you get for the average house in Ft. Mac these days?

#79 Sheane Wallace on 01.18.16 at 7:59 pm

Poloz is an incompetent idiot, and I know some idiots that have much more common sense than him.

Loonie will hit .63-.64 this week if BOC cuts.

Fire him.

What good has the low lonnie done so far for our exports? Nothing.

Now knowing how the guy thinks, he probably envisions .10 loonie as to ‘support’ Alberta’s oil viable at $ 15 per barrel. The guy is nuts!

#80 Sheane Wallace on 01.18.16 at 8:00 pm

PMs are not money. — Garth

I don’t think PMs are commodities either. Specially lately.

#81 Retired Boomer WI on 01.18.16 at 8:03 pm

Cold day here again! Between the temp and the wind chill today, the best thing to do was stay in, and do nothing!

Yeah oil fell a bit more, markets over the world showed no recoveries of note. Do NOTHING! U.S. was closed.

Thursday and Friday might show us something worth knowing. This dam cold -my brain freezes up……

M64WI

#82 Nanaimo Bar on 01.18.16 at 8:04 pm

Ground control to Bond Yield trader. Could we please have clearance on the Chicago trading floor in preparation for liftoff. Thank You.

#83 Tony on 01.18.16 at 8:04 pm

Re: #37 bubu on 01.18.16 at 6:45 pm

Better take a good look at all the empty units for sale as well as all the empty units for rent. The market has already fallen 10 to 15 percent in Edmonton and at least 15 percent in Calgary.

#84 Chris in Nanaimo on 01.18.16 at 8:07 pm

Sooooo.what’s everyone paying for Gas at the moment….?

$1.09 here in ripoff Nanaimo…

On the plus side it was a balmy 10 degrees here today!

#85 Daisy Mae on 01.18.16 at 8:07 pm

“….But the strategy has a dark side. It guarantees $8 cauliflower, promotes more borrowing by an undisciplined nation…”

********************

This is going to affect a lot of businesses….the circle widens. If consumers are forced to pay exorbitant prices for food, as an example, they’ll zero in on the basic food groups in order to have nutritional balance. So much for all the junk foods some of us normally buy….those businesses will go kaput.

#86 Daisy Mae on 01.18.16 at 8:12 pm

#3: “Garth, if you were running the country what would you do given the implications of those decisions? There’s gonna be hurt no matter what.”

******************

Garth is not responsible for solving world problems. No one ever listens, anyway…..

#87 The American on 01.18.16 at 8:14 pm

At #32: Still Confused, well $100,000 CAD is actually more like $69,000 USD. On the high end, they really earn about $60,000 USD, or about $87,000 CAD. These are very low jobs on the Totem Pole. Who in their right mind would ever aspire to be a Postal Carrier? Do they aspire to do things like that up there?

#88 AK on 01.18.16 at 8:15 pm

“Wednesday’s an unknown. But the odds are a rate cut is coming then or on March 9th.”
================================
He may surprise us and raise rates on Wednesday.

#89 Daisy Mae on 01.18.16 at 8:21 pm

#34: “Notice a small price tag in bin that says $2.00 for all marked items. … 90% of the cauliflower were marked with a black sharpie – $2.00 (some had very small amount of discoloration) Bought three. Checked the receipt. Yup. $2.00”

****************

This is what we call, a ‘boycott’. Works!

#90 Sheane Wallace on 01.18.16 at 8:21 pm

BTW markets have not priced Mr P’s insanity so watch the loonie!

#91 Sheane Wallace on 01.18.16 at 8:23 pm

What is Poloz’s email address?

#92 the Jaguar on 01.18.16 at 8:25 pm

Garth. I adore you. But it needs to be said. The Schadenfreude photos about Alberta. Yes, we are on our knees. (But never beaten, never broken. Alberta will rise again.) But where is the analysis on where Ontario & Quebec are in all of this? Where is the bright light on central Canada and its failure to rescue the nation? Manufacturing on the ropes? Financial Services about to take a hard left turn down the ‘digital highway’? ( Fasten your seat belt for that roller coaster).
If we are in the ditch due to oil & gas can we at least take some collective responsibility? The rest of Canada has been ‘oh so content’ to ride on the wave of success the western part of the country provided and now it’s Schadenfreude 24/7. Look in the mirror people. Complacency. And now the gravy train has come to a sudden halt.

#93 Bottoms_Up on 01.18.16 at 8:25 pm

Heat energy of 2.4 billion atomic bombs….or 75 dentonated every second for a year, has been absorbed by the oceans since 1997…and this buffering capability is decreasing…..
Ocean absorption of man-made heat accelerates at colossal rate
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/ocean-heat-1.3408706
Shared via the CBC News Android App

#94 B Riding Dirty on 01.18.16 at 8:32 pm

#28 Suede on 01.18.16 at 6:34 pm

I select (A)

We the blog dawgs are the greaterfools.

Sure we bought 20% US dollars, But we sold out before the YVR two year double up.

Also RIP Glenn Frey…. TAKE IT EASY!

#95 Rick on 01.18.16 at 8:36 pm

Heard gas was .99 per gallon in Michigan today. Makes my local .83 per liter seem expensive??
Thanks for letting me know about the new Tim’s offering. I don’t watch cable/satellite TV, so don’t get the commercials:) Bought a 12 pack of day old oatmeal cookies with dried fruit for $1.50 at my local bakery; and a small Tim’s for $1.50 at the drive thru. I’ll still have cookies for tomorrow:) I don’t live in a large center:) Very affordable here.

Sounds like you live large. — Garth

#96 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 01.18.16 at 8:38 pm

“PMs are not money. — Garth”

I don’t think the central banks have got the message. Most of the largest in the west and east have gold on their balance sheet along with other currencies.

They do not have wheat, oil, or any other commodity.

The US constitution allows for gold as legal tender:

“No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility.”

Most of history has gold as legal tender n most of the world.

I will grant you that gold is not money here in our enlightened land!

#97 Rick on 01.18.16 at 8:40 pm

Bottom’s Up, are you saying that we may have less winter in the future? I hope so, I just cleared 6 inches of snow from my 50 foot long 2 car wide driveway today. Bring on the heat:)

#98 tkid on 01.18.16 at 8:40 pm

Well, Po’ Bill it is. But I think the space between the ‘ and B ought to be deleted, just so we can tell the difference between Po’Bill and your average ordinary Po’ Bill.

Dunno about buying Canadian. Other’n CPD and XTR, what else is there?

#99 Buddy O' Pal on 01.18.16 at 8:41 pm

SERIOUSLY

How is one supposed to buy any decent tech or healthcare etfs when our dollar is worth pesos. What’s the point of even investing with canadian right now. No value in our dollar to go shopping during this dip!!!! BLEEP that I’ll take PC’s 2.5% savings account for a year and chill out.

#100 Buddy O' Pal on 01.18.16 at 8:43 pm

Sounds like you live large. — Garth

Did you just belittle zee small town folk? Prude.

No way. That would be the week-old cookie people. — Garth

#101 Victor Y on 01.18.16 at 8:45 pm

It turns out David has been proven right about the CAD in 2016.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-20/macquarie-why-the-canadian-dollar-s-drubbing-could-last-a-decade

Let’s see about when 59 cents come true. What is more important if that will bring our non oil industry back to full strength. Screw RE as it is disease for the whole country, it must have killed so many innovation.

#102 johnyk on 01.18.16 at 8:46 pm

How many times have we heard that an anorexic loonie “will help exports”?
We got all the way down to 62 centavos at one time and I don’t recall any huge boom and job creation resulting from that bulimic episode. Face it, we are only barely competitive at 70 pfennigs. And the point is well taken about the concomitant rise in the cost of new machinery and equipment, mainly because we don’t make that stuff here. Actually, what do we make aside from cars that go south? Auto manufacturing in Canada is not something I’d bet the farm on.
Cutting interest rates is fine to a point. What happens when that simplistic approach runs out at 0%? If anorexics dieted they would die.

#103 AK on 01.18.16 at 8:49 pm

I hate cauliflower..

#104 Buddy O' Pal on 01.18.16 at 8:51 pm

They opened up the LGTBQT Centre the other day. Love my City. Makes me think the T. is one of the most progressive and culturally tolerant places on earth. I hope they raise the landowner tax to fund the arts and culture, 25$ per person ya. Great investment. Assimilation should (not) be a breeze for the Syrians. There is more donors than refugees from what I understand. Our government will make them pay it back though. Over time. Back to T. What a beautiful place. No need to buy though, if you know your geographies, you can escape the hipsters and immigrants a few stops away and rent a beauty. Then drive a couple hours and go chop wood all weekend. Ford and his Buc’s in Etobicoke and Scarlem can foot the bill. Love this country. Too bad everyone loves Trudy here. Blinded. We will be OK though.

#105 Buddy O' Pal on 01.18.16 at 8:52 pm

No way. That would be the week-old cookie people. — Garth

OH! You mean the Crusties! Gotcha.

#106 johnyk on 01.18.16 at 8:52 pm

Lest we forget, Poloz was Harper’s choice. Not because of any perceived experience or expertise in running a central bank. Harper, as in every appointment be made, wanted an obedient poodle who would do pretty well anything for a kibble. His job was to slash rates in Harper’s vain hope it could pull his electoral chestnutz out of the impending blaze by creating an uptick in the unemployment numbers. Nice try. And both of them are still sucking hard on the taxpayer mammary as we speak.

#107 M on 01.18.16 at 8:55 pm

Housing…over 30% of GDP
Oil… 18% of the GDP (plus the association with the loonie)

Any gov will opt to “save” the cardboard. Imagine those morons losing their houses (which they will anyway).

Ottawa morons hope they’ll avoid any riots. But then again.. Canadians don’t riot (unless for some hokey game and a rock concert).

In the end..it doesn’t matter… a trillion or so in oil derivatives have to burn out before finances go back to some pseudo-normality.

If one ain’t keen of shorting stuff..they should cash out (or buy some gold) and go cruising in Caribbean for a year or so.

#108 acdel on 01.18.16 at 8:55 pm

We lost Glen Frey today, now that is a kick in the balls; the hell with the rest of the B.S.

#109 Freedom First on 01.18.16 at 8:58 pm

Yes. Things are baaaaad in Alberta. And getting worse.

Remember, people on this blog were calling me a liar when I began giving updates on when TSHTF in Alberta, telling me if it was like that we would have heard about it. Well nothing has changed. The story about Jason’s parents is the reality in Alberta today. And I talk with people from all over the Province on a regular basis. And for the people who still have their job, I feel for them too, as their employer has them by the nutz, and know it.

FF007

#110 Ret on 01.18.16 at 8:59 pm

#84 Gasoline prices
82.4 Costco Ancaster, Ontario
85.3 Esso, Main W., Hamilton

I suspect that big oil has targeted the building of a proposed LRT here in Hamilton and keeps us truck nutz deep in cheap gasoline. Big oil vs. the LRT nut bars right here in Hamilton?

Those middle eastern countries who are flooding the world with cheap oil are our friends as I see it and not the enemy.

Canadian oil companies are not your friends. They took every opportunity to shaft Canadians when they had the chance.

Crap excuses like it’s home heating oil usage or summer driving that raised prices. It’s not us they said! They had a story for everything.

Oil went up, prices went up in 12 hours.
Oil went down, prices still went up. What was that about?

#111 Julie K. on 01.18.16 at 9:02 pm

#99 Buddy O’ Pal ~

Seriously? 2.5% — did you read the fine print?

*****

EARN 2.5% INTEREST WITH YOUR TFSA AND RRSP SAVINGS ACCOUNTS:

Between January 1 and March 31, 2016, you can earn 2.5%* interest on new deposits in these TFSA and RRSP accounts:

• Tax-Free Interest PlusTM Savings Account
• Interest Plus RRSP

*****

#whenitseemstogoodtobetrue

#112 For those about to flop... on 01.18.16 at 9:04 pm

#81 Retired Boomer WI on 01.18.16 at 8:03 pm
Cold day here again! Between the temp and the wind chill today, the best thing to do was stay in, and do nothing!

Yeah oil fell a bit more, markets over the world showed no recoveries of note. Do NOTHING! U.S. was closed.

Thursday and Friday might show us something worth knowing. This dam cold -my brain freezes up……

M64WI

///////////////////////////////////

Hang in there Boomer ,check out this parody to make you laugh about cold weather.

M41BC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/steinbach-dj-honours-manitoba-winter-with-parody-of-can-t-feel-my-face-1.3408181

#113 Investorz on 01.18.16 at 9:07 pm

Do you think parents will want to pay the downpayments for their kids when they next open their RRSP statement? Take a look at the TSX today…

And the stock market isn’t even in the panic stage. When it goes below 13550 you’ll see what panic looks like. Favorite stocks starting to accelerate to the downside:

Stella Jones -6%
Couche-Tard -4%
WSP -4%

#114 WUL on 01.18.16 at 9:07 pm

#78 cramar on 01.18.16 at 7:56 pm

How many cauliflowers can you get for the average house in Ft. Mac these days?
@@@@@@@@

I’ll check tomorrow. I am not sure cauliflower is shipped this far north. We may have to work out a cabbage/cauliflower conversion (Calgary as a hub – the Cushing, Oklahoma of the veggie market) to get the answer.

#115 Victor V on 01.18.16 at 9:13 pm

#99

VFV

Provides exposure to US economy, with low fee, and also benefits as CAD continues to drop.

#116 nonplused on 01.18.16 at 9:18 pm

What’s the price of a house in YVR done in US dollars over the last year? (That was rhetorical.)

One of the best performing assets over the last year I have has been…. gold. Sure it sucked in US dollars but in Canadian dollars it was only off 7%. Still a loss but not like what I took on my relatively small mining and energy positions, which I should have sold because energy especially looks like it’s going down by another 50% once the bankruptcies start. There are only a handful of companies in XEG that have enough cash to get through what it looks like we are facing. The hope so far has been “well we’ve been through this before” (although not without bankruptcies but everyone seems to forget that) to a new one, “it won’t last long”. Well, we probably will get through this, but it looks like not before it lasts longer than we thought it would.

#117 Toodles on 01.18.16 at 9:22 pm

Wifey and I squirrel away 4k every month in savings. We may just be lowly scumbag renters, but are doing OK. Life could be worse. F*ck houses.

#118 Leo Trollstoy on 01.18.16 at 9:23 pm

#75 Smoking Man on 01.18.16 at 7:52 pm

bold call

#119 TRT on 01.18.16 at 9:24 pm

One of the biggest banks in the world , Barclays has just gone on record saying at minimum 2 rate cuts in Canada this year. ZERO and further rate cuts into negative territory.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/bank-of-canada-to-cut-key-rate-to-zero-in-2016-barclays-says/article28249106/?click=sf_globe

But I’m thinking no rate cut this week. The Big 5 have spoken and Poliz will listen to the masters.

#120 Grant on 01.18.16 at 9:27 pm

#84 Chris in Nanaimo on 01.18.16 at 8:07 pm

In Armstrong BC it went down to 99.9 today, still getting ripped off, i’m thinking it should be under 60 cents!

#121 Greyswan on 01.18.16 at 9:32 pm

With Cdn dollar so low….I have heard American`s are buying meat here and driving the price of up!!?
Maybe our economy is turning to hamburger!?

#122 BC_Doc on 01.18.16 at 9:39 pm

My prediction, for what it’s worth (not much):
1) No interest rate cut– CAD will completely collapse if rate is cut again.
2) Get ready for Keynsian economics– time for big spending by federal government on large scale infrastructure projects.

#123 Sheane Wallace on 01.18.16 at 9:43 pm

#122 BC_Doc on 01.18.16 at 9:39 pm
My prediction, for what it’s worth (not much):
1) No interest rate cut– CAD will completely collapse if rate is cut again.
2) Get ready for Keynsian economics– time for big spending by federal government on large scale infrastructure projects
————————

1. BOC will cut
2. deficit spending will additionally sink the CAD.

prepare accordingly.

#124 Buddy O' Pal on 01.18.16 at 9:43 pm

#111 Julie K

Did you actually look that up? Damn. I thought I could get it past y’all. But ya – not bad. Check out what the non-registered savings account is posting. .8% WITH NO FEES. BELIEVE IT.

#125 Nanaimo Bar on 01.18.16 at 9:45 pm

Benefits of Iran Sanctions Relief to Bypass Most U.S. Firms

This should be real juicy. They can’t even deposit checks from a sale even if they wanted to. I wonder if Iran made sure that clause was added in 1995 so they could just haggle in the future. Win, win for everybody.

One exception is Boeing Co. and other makers of commercial aircraft and parts. They will have authority to quickly do business as Iran revitalizes its aging airliner fleet. For other companies, those in financial services in particular, the deal only lifts sanctions imposed to punish Iran on its nuclear program and doesn’t touch a sweeping ban on U.S. trade and investment put in place by the Clinton administration in 1995.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-01-16/benefits-of-iran-sanctions-relief-to-bypass-most-u-s-firms

#126 Retired Boomer WI on 01.18.16 at 9:50 pm

#112 For Those About To Flop

Hey Flopper,

Great Video!! Thanks. Feels much like here.
-26F this am in neighboring town. Brrr…

#127 Philburt on 01.18.16 at 9:59 pm

#75 Smoking Man on 01.18.16 at 7:52 pm
Now that a comment worth reading smoky!!! and COR-RECTO!!

#128 WUL on 01.18.16 at 10:07 pm

#78 Cramar

Your question about Ft. McM real estate/cauliflower ratio piqued my curiosity because of the recent caterwauling about the price of cauliflower from Victoria to Dildo. So, (true story) I pulled on the Mukluks and the Mackinaw and woke up the dogs to mush my way to the local grub purveyor. $4.99 per head. It looked fresh and was about the size of a moose’s balls. Big untouched supply so while the “ask” is $4.99, it looks like it has gone “no bid”. Much like the real estate market up here in the Taiga..

#129 Rexx Rock on 01.18.16 at 10:09 pm

Global recession is here and getting worse.Currency wars,trade wars and world wars.If Canada lowers rates it will be known as a failed state and its own people will suffer immensely.Canadians will not travel,or eat out and only buy the essentials because of inflation on everything.Its really sad but our government knows best.Families will be delayed because of the high cost of living.Many won’t get married at all because of 50% divorce rate and the costs involved.A domino effect on every day life because of bad government its terrible policies.

#130 Sheane Wallace on 01.18.16 at 10:16 pm

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-18/the-north-dakota-crude-oil-that-s-worth-less-than-nothing

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.18.16 at 10:19 pm

@#117 Toodles

If I make some T-shirts that say ‘F–k Houses” would you buy some with your “cash stash”?

#132 Mark on 01.18.16 at 10:22 pm

I’m sticking to my suggestion the other day that the BoC should wait to cut the policy rate even further. Although it is very clear at this point that policy rates have little to nothing to do with the CAD$/USD$’s relative demise, at some level, there are some inflationary pressures in the system which might start to show up in the next few quarters.

However, once the USD$/CAD$ pair goes back to 1.2-1.3, then the BoC essentially has the all-clear for an additional policy rate cut as deflationary pressures will once again rule the roost.

#133 Brazil ex-pat on 01.18.16 at 10:22 pm

I think oil was 70% overpriced to begin with. It’s abiotic, the earth makes gazillions of gallons of it. Plus electric cars, built in solar panels on houses and 70mpg are going to erase oil in the future anyway.

#134 White Crock BC on 01.18.16 at 10:24 pm

Everybody got a little rattled last month when the guy gave a speech actually saying the bank would adopt a negative rate if conditions warranted it.
—————-

Yellen said the same thing in front of congress last year.

#135 amazon girl on 01.18.16 at 10:25 pm

amazon girl to yesterday post #129
Smoking man we went to this road before…
“I’d French kiss you”you know the rules Amazons
are for the eyes of the host only. Maybe somwhere
in time. Vacation time for me , leaving to St Barts
I will stick with this smoking man for now.
x-files.wikia.com/smoking man. You deal with Sherly
Valentine . I will be back on time for shopping

#136 Rick on 01.18.16 at 10:25 pm

Greyswan, I buy pork butt $1.39 USD per lb and boneless skinless chicken breast $1.88 USD per lb. Even with our Canadian peso, it’s cheaper in the US. I buy beef in Canada, it’s usually slightly less than in the US, dollar for dollar; no conversion. So, beef is much more in the US; at least northern NY state.

#137 Mark on 01.18.16 at 10:28 pm

“I was talking with an employment lawyer from Calgary while holidaying with the family on Maui: he said that a lot of his practice has been fighting for severance for energy company office workers who agreed to be employed as contractors “

Funny (well not really), because with how much has happened in Calgary over the past few months, there’s probably not an employment law court available to hear these cases for years. And the oil and gas employers know it. And with the viability of many of the employers themselves in question, what good really is a severance claim against a bankrupt firm that has granted first lien on all of its assets just to survive?

Any Bankruptcy Act experts here know where severance claims rank in the process? I know directors are personally liable for unpaid wages of work actually rendered, but what about severance packages (most of which these days are paid out over time, and benefits terminated if the employee finds a replacement job!)?

#138 GORDIE BEAMER on 01.18.16 at 10:29 pm

gas 74.6 esso red deer on 67 st.at a meeting thursday night ,our shop has work for this year,upgrader in redwater &shutdowns.nothing on books for2017.

#139 Linda on 01.18.16 at 10:30 pm

#50 ‘Dreaming’ – downsizing? Selling in the ‘burbs? And who, pray tell, is going to buy? Not people who have just lost or think they are about to lose their jobs. Not anyone who doesn’t have the time for house or yard work & especially not anyone who doesn’t like big property tax bills. Rentals – now that is a different story. Just listening this morning to the news where ‘luxury’ rentals were being touted as a real bargain, as prices have fallen 40% from last year levels. Of course, they then quoted a rental rate of ‘only’ $17,000 per month for one of the luxury properties going begging for occupancy. Way too rich for most people even with a 40% discount!

#140 Freeman on 01.18.16 at 10:31 pm

Garth, in that photo of the pickup trucks, you forgot to hang TRUCK NUTS from the hitch of each one of those pickups. Now that would make them ‘true Alberta’ pickups.

The Baltic Dry index is pointing to the mother of all recessions heading our way.
It has just fallen to 369, a historic low.

Yes, that’s right, lower than any previous recession.

QUOTE: “The lowest level ever reached was on Monday, January 18 2016, when the index dropped to 369 points.”

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-dry-index-falls-to-369-down-4-points/

What that indicates to me is that this is not going to be simple recession that Canada and the U.S. falls into, no, its going to be much, much worse, something similar to the 1930’s depression.

No recession in the U.S., no depression here and the BDI is irrelevant. Agree about the nutz, though. — Garth

#141 bubu on 01.18.16 at 10:32 pm

#109 Freedom First

The story about Jason’s parents is NOT the reality in Alberta today. The prices in Edmonton are flat…. There are a lot of houses in the market ( many of them are not on MLS but they have a sign in the lawn) but the people didn’t change the prices a lot… I’m watching few neighborhoods and only in one I saw the listing prices going down 3-5% vs. what they were listed in Q1-Q2 2015….. Listing prices at that time considered also an increase so going down 3-5% means 2014 levels… I agree it doesn’t make sense to see the prices at this level but it is the reality… we’ll see this spring how is going to be… for the new SFH I see prices lower by $20-25k but we are talking about over $500k level and at the edge of the city…

#142 Aggregator on 01.18.16 at 10:33 pm

Moody's changes outlooks to negative, affirms Aaa ratings for Alberta, ACFA and ATB Financial (PDF)

The negative outlook for the Province of Alberta reflects the rising risk that the province's fiscal position will deteriorate further than previously expected in an environment of protracted low oil prices and deterioration of  economic activity. Without corrective fiscal action, this will lead to higher than planned fiscal deficits and lower liquidity than forecasted in the 2015/16 provincial budget, resulting in more rapid and higher debt accumulation across the medium-term. Under the province's 2015 Budget, which was released in October 2015, Alberta had forecasted WTI to average  US$61/barrel in 2016/17, rising to US$68/barrel in 2017/18. These prices are materially above current market prices as well as Moody's price assumptions for the medium-term.

This pretty much means a downgrade is imminent and that Alberta's borrowing costs are about to rise. This will also affect borrowing costs paid by Alberta's education system and other public services.

But don't worry about Alberta because the big elephant in the room is Ontario, who is heading for an economic crisis without any major reforms within the next decade.

#143 mark on 01.18.16 at 10:40 pm

Preferred shares down again, i am sure glad i got 20% of my fixed income side in them. ZPR is almost at 1/2 of issue price 3 years ago at 15 bucks. Da.

#144 Smoking Man on 01.18.16 at 10:48 pm

#135 amazon girl on 01.18.16 at 10:25 pm
amazon girl to yesterday post #129
Smoking man we went to this road before…
“I’d French kiss you”you know the rules Amazons
are for the eyes of the host only. Maybe somwhere
in time. Vacation time for me , leaving to St Barts
I will stick with this smoking man for now.
x-files.wikia.com/smoking man. You deal with Sherly
Valentine . I will be back on time for shopping.
…..

Been Busy.. not thinking about hotties right now.cern scientists admit they don’t know shit,

http://investmentwatchblog.com/scientists-admit-everything-they-know-about-physics-is-likely-wrong/

Now some other bastards are copying me, this guy is close on Universal Shrinkage. But he’s not me. And he’s not spot on but close.

http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2013/08/the-universe-is-shrinking-a-radical-new-theory-challenges-accepted-view-of-an-expanding-cosmos.html

Here is what they teach on Nectonite. He came up with his paper a year after mine.

My thesis.

http://dyslexicsmokingman.blogspot.ca/2013/11/the-shear-lunacy-of-science-and.html?m=1

#145 WUL on 01.18.16 at 10:49 pm

#137 Mark on 01.18.16 at 10:28 pm

I have run many wrongful dismissal suits.

In answer to some of your questions:

First, if your lawsuit is ready to proceed to trial today (Alberta), your trial date will be in mid-2017, if you are lucky.

If you secure a judgment for salary in lieu of notice (severance), it is an unsecured debt and in the event of bankruptcy, you get nothing.

Directors liable for severance in Alberta?? You have got to be kidding me.

#146 Millmech on 01.18.16 at 10:56 pm

I think your wrong 137 Mark,because when I contracted my services to a company in a situation like that(I only worked for one company for that year)CRA deemed me an employee and disallowed all my business expenses and write offs.Owed them a big chunk of change,very surprised CRA allowed that,maybe rules have been relaxed,never tried that again though.

#147 Ex-Cowtown on 01.18.16 at 10:58 pm

#133 Brazil ex-pat on 01.18.16 at 10:22 pm

I think oil was 70% overpriced to begin with. It’s abiotic, the earth makes gazillions of gallons of it. Plus electric cars, built in solar panels on houses and 70mpg are going to erase oil in the future anyway.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Good one! Had me going for a bit. I thought you were serious. Rachel Notley, is that you???

#148 Strathcona on 01.18.16 at 10:59 pm

I think it’s funny to read the few RE pumpers on here. RE was an unsurpassed bubble, and was a wild ride up in price when the yields of interest rates went down. It’ll never happen again for Canada in a generation.

Here in Grande Prairie it’s getting more dangerous. Crime is rising, mostly robberies by broke and/or drugged up people. Much more than before.

Many new homes go unsold, without very few visitors in the increasing amount of open houses that are dead quiet. It’s so bad here, my landlord has cut my rent 10% to keep me, and I didn’t even ask for the cut. I live in a new home. Many other homes are vacant.

In another year’s time, we’ll see a Republican president in the US, rising US interest rates in an American recovery, and T2 with his hand on his heart, praising Wynne and his 59 cent dollar. Noone likes Bernie or Hillary anyhow. Investment, technical, medical, and business talent, will all be leaving here to greener pastures by then.

#149 Brazil ex-pat on 01.18.16 at 11:01 pm

#84 Chris in Nanaimo on 01.18.16 at 8:07 pm
Sooooo.what’s everyone paying for Gas at the moment….?

$1.09 here in ripoff Nanaimo…

On the plus side it was a balmy 10 degrees here today!

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Which was the “high” while the average temperature was closer to 6.5. This is why no one in Brazil believes in global warming even though it is always warmer here than Canada. And the primary reason I left the frozen north. Good luck everyone !!

#150 Nanaimo Bar on 01.18.16 at 11:03 pm

# 132 Mark

However, once the USD$/CAD$ pair goes back to 1.2-1.3,

—————————————————————–

What date do you think this will happen? I had that range in my mind as well.

#151 cramar on 01.18.16 at 11:16 pm

Now THIS is what I call a gas price war!

The town of Houghton Lake, Mich. had a price war and it was down to 46 cents a GALLON!

http://government.northcrane.com/news/gas-going-up-in-flames-a-gallon-is-just-46-cents-here-michigan/

According to my calculations that is 18 cent/litre in Loonies. Fill with premium, my son.

We need a gas and cauliflower price war in Kanada!

#152 Chris on 01.18.16 at 11:21 pm

“Worse, more cuts which bring a weaker dollar will cause “massive price inflation” hitting Canadian consumers “for years to come.” …..They’re printing money. Here it comes, the Canadian way. The Greeks and the Italians just put a second shift on the printing presses, and out came more currency. Then came the Euro, and they can’t do that anymore. The Americans call it “quantitive easing”. In Canada, we call it an interest rate cut. One name is the same as another. Money is being printed. Put your cash into assets. It is about to be worth a lot less….

#153 Marco on 01.18.16 at 11:27 pm

“Take It Easy” – Glen Frey

I think most of ya’ll need to take that advice and quit looking at your portfolios every nanosecond.

Set a goal, work towards it, and if your nuts shrivel up from fear get the hell out.

#154 MF on 01.18.16 at 11:32 pm

I have no confidence in Poloz or any of the people in charge of this country. The loonie has been falling precipitously as of late and no one seems to care.

Here’s my theory: kill the loonie, stoke inflation, achieve justification for rate increases in the face of horrific housing bubble and the fed.

As for this Iran deal, the GOP just got tons of new supporters. Obama is now seen as weak all around. The enemies are now just laughing at what they can get away with. They shake hands and smile for the cameras, then go immediately behind the back of the US and fully support enemies and terror organizations. For all you historians citing the fall of the Shah yesterday, that is what a “dickhead state” does.

MF

#155 MF on 01.18.16 at 11:38 pm

Lol poor Love My Kia. My buddy made the same mistake today. Around 12:00 I got a text saying “DOW DOWN 500 points!! What a disaster!”

It happens.

#186 Henry Stein on 01.18.16 at 12:25 pm

Incredibly eloquent sounding and well written piece of scathing truth right there.

MF

#156 MF on 01.18.16 at 11:43 pm

#53 TurnerNation on 01.18.16 at 7:02 pm

Yup. Everyone’s a real shooter here in the GTA. A group of Donald Trumpesque RE moguls and high rollers leveraged to the hilt with 6 Kandos working in FIRE screwing people over all day every day.

MF

#157 Smoking Man on 01.18.16 at 11:48 pm

The art of bull shitting.

Its one thing to hide the JD Mickey’s in the back yard, another thing to get rid of the evidace when you can barley walk.

Nectonites is all saying.

#158 And another... on 01.18.16 at 11:50 pm

Another baby boomer going…

https://variety.com/2015/music/news/dallas-taylor-former-crosby-stills-nash-young-drummer-dies-at-66-1201408369/

#159 Smoking Man on 01.18.16 at 11:58 pm

T2 wife sings, we are so fkd. Well not me.

Called this shit a while ago, took measures,

And that’s all I’m saying about it.

So look forward to the two gay bastards that copied my selection of glasses that I was tempted to run over on my weekly trip , usually on a Sunday to San Fransesco foods on Clinton street for a hot stake sandwich

#160 You were wrong on 01.19.16 at 12:01 am

Face it Garth, the only reason some of the predictions you have been making for years now is because iof something you completely did not see coming: an oil price crash and a chinese slowdown. If it weren’t for that, housing prices would not be under much threat, at best the fed us rate increases that would have happened anyway would have cooled things off a bit. At this point we have okenty of proof that by far the largest determinant of house prices is the mortgage rate; whether a “bubble” is in fact a bubble or a new normal depends almost completely on that.

#161 conan on 01.19.16 at 12:06 am

Wow I see green in the Asian markets.

#162 A box in the Sky on 01.19.16 at 12:20 am

Meh, wake me up when houses go down 29% in Leslieville or Riverdale

#163 Philburt on 01.19.16 at 12:22 am

#143 mark on 01.18.16 at 10:40 pm
With DIV cut all over the place these things get smoked!
Glad I own non still….90% cash @2.5% for me.
My US REITs have come off 8% but their paying 8% will the panic sets in…

#144 Smoking Man on 01.18.16 at 10:48 pm
Now thats some good SH*T man…
We are going to go POOF just like the market now LOL

#164 Soothsayer on 01.19.16 at 12:26 am

It doesn’t matter how you cut it….we’re all in deep poopoo!

Interest rate will stay put on Wednesday…heard it right out of the loud mouths of Ottawa who can’t keep a secret. Inflation is being offset by weaker economy.

Sheesh…why wait till Wednesday.

#165 A box in the Sky on 01.19.16 at 12:26 am

#53 TurnerNation on 01.18.16 at 7:02 pm

Richer than we thing?

Remember when people ate food not to (you know) starve?
Downtown TO especially, tons of new, fancy food prep and coffee places exhorting us to Crave, Eat fresh their $10-15+ lunch items.
That their food will “Nourish the soul” or “Energize the body”.
Even low end sport bar chain Shoeless Joes is advertising their “Chef Inspired” menus. Like wth.

I, On King St. W this weekend in a 5 min walk counted five new Mercedes autocars passing by in each direction. The new normal.
———————————-

What’s your point?

This just in: There’s a lot of money in this city

#166 Mark on 01.19.16 at 12:30 am

“What date do you think this will happen? I had that range in my mind as well.”

No idea. I’m thinking the CAD$ will start turning around when there’s visible panic in Canadian housing. A much deeper acceleration compared to this modest few percent off a year business that we’ve seen since
the Budget 2013 apex. Basically, in such an environment, risk premia on mortgage debt will likely blow out, and there will be a significant race to repay CAD$-denominated debt.

How long could this take? It’ll be quick when it does happen, but like anything, timing is very difficult.

“If you secure a judgment for salary in lieu of notice (severance), it is an unsecured debt and in the event of bankruptcy, you get nothing.

Directors liable for severance in Alberta?? You have got to be kidding me.

Thank you for your response. That’s consistent with my prior beliefs, but I wanted to hear it 100% from someone who is more qualified to comment on those specific aspects.

#167 Nagraj on 01.19.16 at 12:32 am

For #95 RICK who bought hisself a twelve pack of day-old oatmeal cookies with dried fruit in them for $1.50, and a small coffee at Tim’s also for $1.50, and who still has some of those cookies left for tomorrow.

Hey, Rick, I often get a coupla free Timbits at the take-out winder because I play them music they love at max volume. I play them German yodeling or oom-pah-pah music, they really love those. They start dancin’ around. They also like “Mule Train.” Some of them also like the sound track from “Yodhaa Akbar”. [I tested out some of my Charles Ives collection, that didn’t go over at all.]

Oatmeal cookies are highly nutritious, especially with dried fruit in them, and they keep well. So many people “live small.” You can tell by their mean little faces and they is allus in a hurry. They is allus comin from somewhere else or goin’ to somewhere else. They don’t sing and they can’t dance.

I bet when GT goes to Timmy’s he slips Bandit a donut or two.

#168 When beavers go bad - Realties.ca on 01.19.16 at 12:34 am

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/18/when-beavers-go-bad-2/ […]

#169 My dog has issues on 01.19.16 at 12:46 am

Gas in Saskatoon is 71.4 at Costco and roughly 74/75 at the other stations.

#170 Tiger on 01.19.16 at 1:08 am

NDP Leader Mulcair living in hotel, carrying 4 mortgages

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/ndp-leader-mulcair-living-in-hotel-carrying-4-204845284.html

#171 TRT on 01.19.16 at 1:09 am

Upstart airline New Leaf has been grounded by red tape even before they started.

i would bet everything that WstJt and ArCnda owners got to the regulators and paid them off nicely…or they are the regulators. A quick call was made to all the major media websites to block commenting in the news story.

Canada corrupt to the core…

On another note, all Temporary Foreign Worker news stories have been removed from mainstream media.

Welcome to the police state.

#172 Not tonight honey on 01.19.16 at 1:09 am

#153 Marco on 01.18.16 at 11:27 pm
“Take It Easy” – Glen Frey

I think most of ya’ll need to take that advice and quit looking at your portfolios every nanosecond.

Set a goal, work towards it, and if your nuts shrivel up from fear get the hell out.
==============================
But Marco, I don’t have nuts….
Please advise.

Maybe I should hang some mini-van nutz?
;-)

#173 jane 24 on 01.19.16 at 2:25 am

Ok I consider myself ok with basic economics but this is the nub that I don’t get in Canadian govt current thinking. They say that if the dollar goes down then exports will increased based on historical events. What exports in 2016 I ask myself?

Canada currently exports mostly rocks, metals and oil and no-one wants those because they can get them cheaper elsewhere. We make cars but that is declining and all go to the States. Everything else we may have made that last time around is now made in China and imported here!

So what exports are they talking about? Can anyone enlighten me.

There is a lot in the Canadian press about film work being done in Canada but that business has changed too. My family is in it. Most current films require special effects that can only be obtained in Shepperton/Pinewood in England or increasing in New Zealand. Canada is not in this specialised film business any more.

#174 Frank Hellbound on 01.19.16 at 2:43 am

“Money that loses a third of its value against the global standard makes everybody poorer. Is this the best strategy they could come up with?”

But Justin says nothing, and Sophie breaks into spirited song, while the multiples of nannies fawned over the newly royal kiddies. Pity the starving seniors and unemployed.

Bob Dylan sang it best “It’s a hard rain gonna fall”.

#175 TRT on 01.19.16 at 3:13 am

@HenryStein

I got a nerve with my post, did I?

Well, get used to it. Wealth taxes are eventually coming. I am pretty sure you are entitled boomer who thinks you ‘earned’ everything Mr Stein.

#176 It is still about payroll/jobs... on 01.19.16 at 3:45 am

Have read smug YVR/416 realtor posts last few weeks and they are making fun of rates not doing anything to their RE markets (and making of Garth as well).

All the signs point to a recession. When that happens, people lose jobs and the ability to make mortgage payments and in YVR/416 those payments are large.

The Canadian Payroll Association, in its sixth annual survey of thousands of Canadian employees, found that (no doom/gloom or conjecture here, just FACTS):

1.) more than half of employees would find it difficult to meet their financial obligations if their paycheque were delayed by a single week.

2.) aged 18 to 29, the number is 63 per cent that report living paycheque to paycheque.

3.) 26% of respondents said they probably could not come up with $2,000 over the next month if an emergency expense arose.

4.) more than 50% report saving just 5% or less of their paycheque versus the 10% recommended by financial planning experts.

Post February (after the “beat the higher down payment rules RE buying rush” will tell the truth when a few more GDP and Jobs Reports are published.

Negative psychology is already in place (you need only read the Comment section of this blog) and all that is left is bad economic news as in GDP/Job losses.

Hopefully not. If there, we will end up in a deep recession.

As for the smug realtor postings here, please repost how things are going…say this May and devoid or “Realtor Math”.

#177 Buy? Curious? on 01.19.16 at 4:28 am

Hey Garth! I have a different theory. What if the government was purposely driving down the currency in order to keep foreign money, currently parked in real estate, in the country?

Oh, can you believe how expensive beer is? Why bother? Just get some cannabis.

#178 Shady Tree and His Acorns on 01.19.16 at 6:20 am

If Poloz does decide to go ahead with another cut tomorrow, the loonie will lose two full cents faster than you can say cauliflower grow-op.

#179 Julia on 01.19.16 at 6:41 am

#137 Mark
“Any Bankruptcy Act experts here know where severance claims rank in the process? I know directors are personally liable for unpaid wages of work actually rendered, but what about severance packages (most of which these days are paid out over time, and benefits terminated if the employee finds a replacement job!)?”

Severance – as do unpaid wages – rans as an unsecured claim in a bankruptcy except for a portion of $2,000 per employees for salaries that is considered preferred and ranking ahead of Secured Creditors but behind other priorities (like deemed trusts, liens and unpaid suppliers. That $2,000 is WEPP – Wage Earners Protection Program.

I believe Directors are not personally liable for unpaid wages in general – in some cases yes – but are liable for unremitted source deductions and sales tax.

Bear in mind that scenarios are different depending on the type of insolvency proceeding.

#180 pbrasseur on 01.19.16 at 7:22 am

My guess, Poloz is to stay put tomorrow because of the confidence thing and because he might want to keep a few bullets in the magazine.

He probably knows the REAL correction has not even started in this country. Could take a while though, we’ve become experts at kicking the can down the road, just ask T2…

#181 Herb on 01.19.16 at 7:32 am

#170 Tiger,

“NDP Leader Mulcair living in hotel, carrying 4 mortgages”

And the point of your post is? Are you praising Mulcair for not pulling a Duffy, or merely trying to slag him?

Got any dirt on the private holdings of other MPs?

#182 GTA Owner on 01.19.16 at 7:45 am

“Did you guys never hear of buying low? — Garth”
—————————-
Buying low? Buying what?

The question was about investing in US markets with such a low Loonie.

#183 The American on 01.19.16 at 8:15 am

At #121: Greyswan, Americans aren’t crossing the border to buy Canadian meat, regardless how low the CAD is relative to the USD. Two things: 1) Inflation alone would keep Americans away 2) Good luck bringing that back into the U.S. Now, if we were discussing Canadians crossing the border and buying up all the poultry and dairy products, as well as gasoline, in the U.S., we could have a real conversation about that. It is getting so bad, that authorities are ready to put a limit on it. See here…. http://www.kirotv.com/videos/news/video-canadian-shoppers-swarm-bellingham-costco/vDx2N/

#184 The American on 01.19.16 at 8:18 am

At #121: Greyswan, here is another video. It’s remarkable. This one shows what is happening inside the store, vs. in the parking lot. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyCZTVapOnM

#185 economictsunami on 01.19.16 at 8:26 am

“Sometimes the hardest thing for a CB to do, is just sit on their hands.” (paraphrasing)

In the meantime, do some timely/ rationale analysis on whether the supposed benefits of a lower loonie are actually being realized. With competitive devaluation voiding many rate moves, why waste the effort?

It appears when business investment had the opportunity (loonie near parity, low rates and favorable prov/fed tax policy) there was a dearth of “investment spending on technology and processes.” (CD Howe)

Not to forget, exporters are not all created equal; as a low loonie affects many import -input costs.

To lower rates now without building a solid/ factual case for doing so, would merely be seen as anxious hand wringing…

Canada’s blip of economic fortune has given way to a painful transition:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/canadas-blip-of-economic-fortune-has-given-way-to-a-painful-transition/article28053897/

Oldie but goodie:

In these provinces, government spending accounts for nearly half the economy:

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/private-public-investment-ratio-imbalance/

#186 SunShowers on 01.19.16 at 8:31 am

#39 Leo Trollstoy on 01.18.16 at 6:46 pm
Well, that’s a 29% haircut on a detached house in a major Canadian capital city

when is this coming to vancouver and toronto? plueeze?
————–

My guess would be when those two provinces weather a massive decline in their chief exports. Unfortunately, the market valuations for hubris and false senses of superiority seem as high as ever.

#187 Hope & Change (Canada) on 01.19.16 at 8:31 am

#32 Still confused on 01.18.16 at 6:42 pm
So a 100K job in Ontario equals 60K a year in the U.S. That’s what a U.S. Postal carrier makes. I bet you never thought you were doing so poorly?

You have to understand that at 100K in Canada you’re considered ‘rich’. As such, you’re pretty close to paying top marginal tax rates.

Your neighbors are green with envy and want to raise your taxes. I mean, you’re 20K away from being an evil 1 percenter responsible for all of their problems. (How do you even live with yourself? Really.)

And of course, all levels of government have their hands in your pocket, since you’re ‘the rich guy’ who needs to pay his/her share.

At 60K in the US, you may be paying no, or very few taxes, depending on your family situation.

Lesson. If you’re going to pull in that kind of cash in Canada, don’t expect to keep most of it.

#188 LL on 01.19.16 at 8:32 am

…”But the strategy has a dark side. It guarantees $8 cauliflower, promotes more borrowing by an undisciplined nation, adds real estate risk, discourages investing, penalizes savers and casts a Banana Republic kinda pall over the whole country. After all, when your central bank won’t defend your currency, who the hell will? Money that loses a third of its value against the global standard makes everybody poorer. Is this the best strategy they could come up with?”….

And nobody talk about it… importations will cost more!

#189 Investorz on 01.19.16 at 8:35 am

Potash laying off 430.

If you don’t have a tech job, you should worry.
Teach your kids to code c# and java.

#190 NorthOf49 on 01.19.16 at 8:44 am

Potash Corp. To Suspend New Brunswick Operations

Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based Potash Corp. said the move, which will allow it to focus on its lower-cost potash operations, will result in the loss of between 420 and 430 jobs in the eastern Canadian province.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/potash-corp-to-suspend-new-brunswick-ops-2016-01-19?

#191 salonist on 01.19.16 at 8:57 am

San Fransesco foods on Clinton street

doubt anyone here knows the place
and how to get to the location by car.clinton is off college,best to get there off dundas street and you’ll still never find it.

my daughters know it well.pizza slices with dad on sundays.
used to take my clients there after a press approval.
that’s it, not saying anything else.

garth likes polish
http://www.supersausage.ca/home/
brantford location,take out as well

then there is the paris bakery, paris Ontario…maple bacon donuts ( early morning on weekends )

#192 Soothsayer on 01.19.16 at 9:04 am

Observation in Toronto:

I can’t tell people how many Albertan license plates I see driving around Toronto these days.

I can’t say I’ve ever noticed so many before.

#193 maxx on 01.19.16 at 9:23 am

#8 S.Bby on 01.18.16 at 6:07 pm

“Interest rate cut could severely affect consumers:

http://globalnews.ca/news/2460262/interest-rate-cut-may-deliver-hammer-blow-to-consumers-experts/

Sure hope we don’t get thrown under the bus on Wednesday.”

We will.
Repeatedly.
As we have been, particularly since 2008.
For all the spittle of “helping the middle class” and “protecting our economy”, there will be no good to come out of it – none. Fire-hosing more debt into more unnecessary blue-collar jobs and continually trashing the dollar is not the way.
Increasing rates by .1% per quarter is. It will give all sectors of the economy as well as consumers time to adapt and will also shore up the dollarette.
Garth is absolutely correct about reducing maple in our portfolios.
Our central bank is terminally misguided and has completely lost its way.
A frustrated gorilla in a china shop.

#194 Suzie Q on 01.19.16 at 9:41 am

Just some anecdotal observations – back from a weekend trip through Calgary and Edmonton. I haven’t been through that part of AB for a few years, so some of the changes I found to be shocking (in spite of expecting it).

Yards upon yards of rigs and equipment parked and sitting idle. Hotel rates 40% cheaper than the same in Regina. While waiting for a table at a restaurant in Edmonton, overheard one guy who is still employed in the patch describing the way some oil companies are offering their contractors cost plus 2% on remaining jobs – take it or leave it. 2%!!!

Other than that, though, little evidence of hard times, on the surface. Shopping malls and restaurants crazy busy – at least, the ones I was at.

A weird juxtaposition – those eerie yards full of equipment, and the hoards of people shopping/eating/drinking…

#195 Ole Doberman on 01.19.16 at 9:43 am

More bad news for Calgary RE:

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/r-p-petro-carbon-economy-75429#.Vp5JvlJRrSg

#196 IHCTD9 on 01.19.16 at 9:46 am

T2 has a fun year coming up.

I’ll be making it even more “fun”.

Track loader restoration #1 is very near completion – then it is gasifier time.

I would even be looking at Solar Panels if the Loonie was still worth something. I need to find a way to get paid some US dollars – might be a good time to rev up that EBay account again…

Damn, I miss Harper already…

#197 Nanaimo Bar on 01.19.16 at 9:53 am

Good to see green across the boards around the world.

#198 Mike in Toronto on 01.19.16 at 9:55 am

“A weird juxtaposition – those eerie yards full of equipment, and the hoards of people shopping/eating/drinking…”

HELOCs are the new credit cards…

OTOH, my hard-earned savings seem to have earned -15% in a wide assortment of investments. Maybe -10% if I were to add in dividends, but -40% if measured against the $US.

Canada’s gone mental. Girlfriend was talking about going to KL. It might be a good place to live for a few years until this stupidness blows over.

#199 Randy Randerson on 01.19.16 at 10:06 am

#176 It is still about payroll/jobs… on 01.19.16 at 3:45 am

Saw those annoying postings on my Facebook from my realturd friends as well. What I did was screen shot all of them and put them away in a file. Once the correction starts and they start to lose their jobs, I’ll be sure to repost them on my Facebook page. Oh the sweet irony.

#200 Randy Randerson on 01.19.16 at 10:12 am

I’m currently in HK. You want to see a metropolitan city? Just count the number of Tesla’s in the roads to see if you’re in one. There should be a “Tesla index”.

#201 Calgary Rip off on 01.19.16 at 10:13 am

Garth not everyone is losing their jobs. It is mostly the greedy oil exec fools that are forced to let the hard working go because the price to get the oil from the bitumen doesnt equal a profit anymore. Come to Calgary at 7 am, the traffic is horrendous. So unless Im the only one on the roadway this “sky is falling” is nonsense. Guess what? The only thing in life that is guaranteed is death. Their are plenty of pathetic “adults” on this blog that go on and on and on about economics without addressing the reality that you only have so much time on this planet. It’s a stepping stone to the next reality. So enjoy the ride. This constant whining about irrelevant things that “adults” think are important. 95% of the commenters on here are self appointed fools.

#202 Luc on 01.19.16 at 10:18 am

New debt/income numbers drum roll 171 going to 174 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canadians-household-debt-to-hit-new-record-this-year-report-says/article28254553/

#203 Daisy Mae on 01.19.16 at 11:02 am

#106: “Lest we forget, Poloz was Harper’s choice. Not because of any perceived experience or expertise in running a central bank. Harper, as in every appointment be made, wanted an obedient poodle who would do pretty well anything for a kibble. His job was to slash rates in Harper’s vain hope it could pull his electoral chestnutz out of the impending blaze by creating an uptick in the unemployment numbers. Nice try…”

*****************

And that’s why Harper is gone, an incumbent has taken his place, and the party attempts to regroup.

#204 LL on 01.19.16 at 11:33 am

…”And nobody talk about it… importations will cost more!”..

I am talking about all the stuff we import from China.

#205 Dups on 01.19.16 at 11:38 am

What happened to the BOC rates today? Any news?

Tomorrow. — Garth

#206 IHCTD9 on 01.19.16 at 11:40 am

#204 Daisy Mae on 01.19.16 at 11:02 am

And that’s why Harper is gone, an incumbent has taken his place, and the party attempts to regroup.
____________________________________________

Meanwhile in Ottawa…

Looks like we’ve already got housing shortages happening for our hastily imported Syrian immigrants. JT wants 25K+ in here asap, gets about 6K in the door and promptly runs out of housing. I’d hate to be a non privately sponsored Syrian immigrant right about now. At least the sponsored ones have money, brains, and diligent workers behind them. Not to mention a roof over their heads…

T2 hasn’t even put the dedicated selfie cam down and got to work yet – and look at the mess waiting for him. He best start thinking about less important things on his agenda – like working Canadians and the economy.

Ahhh, who am I kidding?

#207 Tuxedo on 01.19.16 at 11:49 am

Garth, something’s not quite right about your Edmonton house sale story. Living here I would say prices today are off by about 7-10% from mid-2014 highs. However, if oil continues to stink for another year or so 25%+ drop is definitely in the picture because of foreclosures that are coming down the pipe. Lots of people here taking big wage cuts, switching to lower paying positions, on EI, etc. Problem is restaurants, bars, and malls still full. Consumer debt?

Debt up + wages down = Pending disaster

#208 Estrella on 01.19.16 at 11:51 am

I have been watching the market and just wondering if the volatility is not due for the most part on people or institutions selling on rallies because they are trying to cover. I mean with consumer confidence high, and fed increase rates, means the party is over for a lot of people. They don’t want to be caught with their shorts down. In actual fact I wonder if all the misery isn’t just some drama queen way to try to slow down the fed policy. If so then the market is more puppets than I had previously thought. We are all pawns.

Thank you for poster who corrected me, Iran not Iraq. sorry, often get those mixed up.

#209 pinstripe on 01.19.16 at 11:52 am

The economic outlook does not look too sunny these days in alberta. The policies of the AB PCs and fed CPC are starting to reap their consequences. These same policies are well designed to totally destroy the middle class. selling oil in US dollars and paying workers in Canadian dollars is destroying the middle class sooner. dropping interest rates will continue the drop in the Canadian dollar will accelerate the destruction of the middle class.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/oilpatch-worker-urges-justin-trudeau-to-help-alberta-in-widely-shared-facebook-post-1.3406205

#210 Renter's Revenge! on 01.19.16 at 11:53 am

#201 Calgary Rip off on 01.19.16 at 10:13 am
“Their are plenty of pathetic “adults” on this blog that go on and on and on about economics without addressing the reality that you only have so much time on this planet.”

This blog is an island in a sea of insanity. There are plenty more “adults” not on this blog who pretend that economics don’t matter, and one day just hit the wall. We come here for sanctuary.

#211 Rainclouds on 01.19.16 at 11:56 am

#184 American

You forgot the Costco(Head office Kirkland Wa) response to the good people of BLI at the time, (2012)

” Canadians spending has kept unemployment in North West Wa well below the US national average. We have no plans to limit purchases”.

And they didn’t…………………….cause 99.9% of Americans are decent, reasonable, people. Just like not all Canadians are milk chugging louts.

Meanwhile things have changed in the past 2.5 yrs:
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Drop+Canadian+dollar+linked+fewer+cross+border+shoppers/10752596/story.html#ixzz3xi3DSaY7.

“I’d be very worried if I was a Bellingham business owner and the dollar falls below 80 cents.”

#212 AB Boxster on 01.19.16 at 11:57 am

#194 Suzie Q on 01.19.16 at 9:41 am

——————————————-
Agree with your observations on yards full of equipment doing nothing. Unless its all been paid for it must be costing a bunch to sit idle.

Other Alberta observations:

1. Newish Motel 6 built north of Calgary.
Nightly rate can be seen from highway.
Until last summer, rates always floated around $119 – $129 per night and it looked pretty full.
Now, sign consistently shows $89 per night and it rarely looks full.

2. Major mall outside Calgary.
Went to this last weekend (I hate malls- temples to consumption of overpriced everything) as my son wanted to redeem a gift card.
Busy as crazy. People buying, buying, buying, buying.

Many young kids seemed to be in the height of fashion.
Some of the bizarre and weird footware. Much moolla.

I think most people just don’t know how to stop shopping and buying overpriced ‘stuff’.

And since most citizens do not even read a newspaper or have a clue about finance, they buy what they want, when they want it.

And since it’s so easy to live on debt, why not.

#213 pinstripe on 01.19.16 at 11:58 am

any news in the alberta O&G business is not good news.

OTOH, the casinos, loto ticket kiosks, bars, and liquor stores are hiring people to handle the booming business.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-work-jobs-1.3409345

#214 Herb on 01.19.16 at 11:59 am

#196 IHCTD9,

“Damn, I miss Harper already…”

Why?

#215 Drill Baby Drill on 01.19.16 at 12:00 pm

#201 Calgary Rip Off
I work downtown Calgary and the traffic is half of what it was 18 mnths ago. There are rarely traffic jams anymore. The layoffs in this town have been substantial and are continuing today.
You do not of what you speak but then most fools don’t.

#216 zentao on 01.19.16 at 12:21 pm

Here is Icecap Asset Management’s take for tomorrow and the rest of 2016; we’ll get to see who is good at prediction:

1 – Canadian economy to be in recession in 2016
2 – Bank of Canada will be at 0% interest rates in 2016
3 – Bank of Canada will be at NEGATIVE interest rates in later 2016
4 – Bank of Canada will be PRINTING MONEY in later 2016

http://icecapassetmanagement.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2015.11-IceCap-Global-Market-Outlook2.pdf

Martin Armstrong’s prediction is for $20-25 oil which will likely mean, just as in North Dakota right now, only the janitors at Fort McMurray based on their shipping cost.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/42152

There is a very recent oil shipping cost graphic here:
http://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/alberta-canadian-heavy-oil-pricing-western-canada-select-2015

Which means that if you have money saved then the CRA will be very interested on getting hold of it…

#217 Smoking Man on 01.19.16 at 12:43 pm

#205 Dups on 01.19.16 at 11:38 am
What happened to the BOC rates today? Any news?

Tomorrow. — Gart…….

…………………..

Info here
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/calendar

#218 Mike in Edm on 01.19.16 at 12:46 pm

I don’t think today’s store about the Edmonton house is true. I watch the market closely (have for several years) and there’s 2 red flags with this story 1) Something other than a 600sqft bungalow on a busy street sold for $320k, and 2) The price drop from mid 2014 to now is that high. Either the people that put that 2014 offer in are complete morons, or the story teller is doing exactly that.

As I’ve said before, prices in Edmonton have been pretty flat over the last 5 years, as noted by my in-laws house that they made practically zero cash on, plus all the houses around me fore sale are not dropping their prices (YET).

#219 MF on 01.19.16 at 12:49 pm

#214 Herb on 01.19.16 at 11:59 am

Because, like him or not, he had leadership qualities. T2 does not. Even Daisy, who droned endlessly for 3 months without a 15 minute break about how she/he hated Harper on here now says things like:

“We had no choice”
“Canada did what needed to be done”
“Canadians made a stand against Harper”

I love watching T2 screw up and watching/hearing the idiot masses now complain. What a joke.

MF

#220 MF on 01.19.16 at 12:56 pm

#213 pinstripe on 01.19.16 at 11:58 am

I love how you start a lot of your posts with “this morning the talk at the coffee shop was all about…”

It sounds so quaint. I can envision the old guys, Mortie, Stew, Howie and the bunch going back and fourth all morning while nursing their timmies hot chocolate. They pause only briefly as the female Tim’s TFW comes to wipe the table or mop.

Must be so cute.

MF

#221 MF on 01.19.16 at 1:02 pm

#212 AB Boxster on 01.19.16 at 11:57 am

This. Why save when your currency gets devalued to peso status? Saving is so 1940’s. Only debt driven morons come out ahead here.

“Many young kids seemed to be in the height of fashion.
Some of the bizarre and weird footware. Much moolla.”

They are actually pretty cool looking. Nowadays the high top is back in style. Picked up a pair a while back. They look like something Marty McFly wore in Back to the Future 2.

https://www.google.ca/search?q=back+to+the+future+shoes&biw=1366&bih=667&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjt9qbCurbKAhWIg4MKHR3dBpMQ_AUIBigB

MF

#222 Leo Trollstoy on 01.19.16 at 1:20 pm

i hope the cpc takes a long time to regroup. i want to see the libs marinate in the collapse of the canadian economy. it’ll be a good show. just enjoy it. where’s the popcorn?

#223 TurnerNation on 01.19.16 at 1:23 pm

Lots of money in this city (TO)?
Three coworkers with household income 160-180k+ state they could not afford to buy their own homes at current prices.
In Markham, Leslieville and North York. It’s over. Everywhere.

#224 Dave on 01.19.16 at 1:25 pm

Looks like someone at the cbc reads your blog:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-rate-advancer-1.3408694

#225 TurnerNation on 01.19.16 at 1:30 pm

Even Syrian refugees are getting 10k bills from the government. How to pay that off, on minimum wage?
A new class of indentured servants. PFW. (Permanent.)
Human trafficking is in top 5 businesses in the world, run by elites.

#226 Dual Citizen In Canada on 01.19.16 at 1:40 pm

With a good bit of my retirement money in US IRA, I would vote for a BOC cut tomorrow and have the loonie devalued even more so I can move my IRA to RRSP near the end of this year. We all have our scenarios, be it good for Canada or good for us, individually.

#227 Sunshine on 01.19.16 at 1:40 pm

I think Jason’s pulling your leg Garth. You can’t buy a dumper house (let alone a condo) for $320 in Edmonton. His story sounds super suspect …

He actually send me supporting documentation. Looks legit. — Garth

#228 Nanaimo Bar on 01.19.16 at 1:44 pm

#208 Estrella

In actual fact I wonder if all the misery isn’t just some drama queen way to try to slow down the fed policy.

———————————————————–
Yup. You are going to hear all kinds of moaning and pleading. The dinosaurs will be buried. I’m sure the Fed will address this issue in the next rate hike. Pretty sure that script is written already. They addressed the issue of the whining from the emerging markets last meeting. I would luv to see Janet pull a rate hike on the January 27th just to send a message to Wall Street. Your days of making money betting against the Fed are over. With no press conference scheduled, she would not even have to get out of bed and apply lipstick. No hike though on Jan 27th. Maybe saving that one for December 16th. Depends who wins election. Main thing to remember is the U.S. Fed have a plan that was hatched awhile back. There is a method to their madness.

#229 Alberta Shrugged on 01.19.16 at 1:45 pm

I can’t help but see a little Celtic Tiger parallel happening here in Canada:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_property_bubble

#albertashrugged

#230 The oil markets are on edge with oil sinking into the $20s per barrel. And last weesour crude from North Dakota for -$0.50 per barrel on 01.19.16 at 1:51 pm

The oil markets are on edge with oil sinking into the $20s per barrel. And last week we reported on one place where oil is already trading in the single digits. Canada’s bitumen is selling for just $8 a barrel.

But even that rock-bottom price is higher than what one oil seller earned for a shipment recently. In a bizarre turn of events, Bloomberg reported that Flint Hill Resources, a refining unit owned by the Koch brothers, said that they would purchase sour crude from North Dakota for -$0.50 per barrel.

http://www.businessinsider.com/market-where-oil-selling-for-050-2016-1#comments

#231 fancy_pants on 01.19.16 at 1:52 pm

all sorts of terms being tossed around in that CBC article under post #223:

-juice the economy
-oil shock
-housing market
-export strength

the BofC has lost track of their mandate which is control inflation and protect the value of money.

Rate cuts will do this: won’t help the resource sector, will fuel more debt, and will further erode the value of $. How does that fit their mandate?

Stop ‘juicing’ the economy already! If they lower the rate tomorrow, it becomes clear QE is on its way – that is the juice once the juicer hits zero. you think cauliflower is expensive now? buckle up.

#232 Sheane Wallace on 01.19.16 at 2:15 pm

another day, another drop in oil.

When BOC cuts tomorrow it would be carnage.
I won’t hold a single CAD with Poloz in charge of BOC.

He will drive the loonie into the 50-es and then into the 30-es.

Deadly serious.

He needs to keep his (real) boss buddies in business with the tar sands whatever it takes.

#233 Sheane Wallace on 01.19.16 at 2:16 pm

#229 The oil markets are on edge with oil sinking into the $20s per barrel. And last weesour crude from North Dakota for -$0.50 per barrel on
………………..

Loonie at (minus) -.05 USD? Anyone?

#234 Sheane Wallace on 01.19.16 at 2:18 pm

#230 fancy_pants on 01.19.16 at 1:52 pm
all sorts of terms being tossed around in that CBC article under post #223:

-juice the economy
-oil shock
-housing market
-export strength

the BofC has lost track of their mandate which is control inflation and protect the value of money.

Rate cuts will do this: won’t help the resource sector, will fuel more debt, and will further erode the value of $. How does that fit their mandate?

Stop ‘juicing’ the economy already! If they lower the rate tomorrow, it becomes clear QE is on its way – that is the juice once the juicer hits zero. you think cauliflower is expensive now? buckle up.
…………………..

Absolutely, hence my statement for loonie in the .35-0.45 range. It could overshoot on the downside.

#235 Bottoms_Up on 01.19.16 at 2:24 pm

#97 Rick on 01.18.16 at 8:40 pm
——————————
Precisely. But never forget that along with any perceived or real benefit of climate change there is a corresponding real loss of human life and suffering on the scale of millions.

#236 IHCTD9 on 01.19.16 at 2:26 pm

#214 Herb on 01.19.16 at 11:59 am
#196 IHCTD9,

“Damn, I miss Harper already…”

Why?
__________________________

Harper stood for things – just about everyone knew what he was all about – even those who disagreed. I happened to agree most of the time.

Harper was killing off the Federal deficit in superb fashion.

Harper knew how to say “No”.

Trudeau stands for whatever happens to be the going concern, and takes policy directives from Facebook and twitter. He is going to sink us in debt without thinking twice about it He is totally inexperienced as a politician, and most of his cabinet ministers are as well.

I have some hope for Bill, we will see. Trudeau is a talking head puppet, I would rather have had Mulcair. Harper was voted out, no one was voted in, and Trudeau is just filling the vacuum.

#237 Rexx Rock on 01.19.16 at 2:40 pm

The writing is on the wall,Canada is heading to a severe recession or a depression.Toronto and Vancouver will see mass migration because of high wage jobs and a stronger economy.There will be a strong competiveness in these 2 cities so only the best will thrive.A complete failure for BOC and many Canadians will see its total incompetence.Save your money and only buy the essentials.

Why don’t you start the mass migration by going away? — Garth

#238 Henry Stein on 01.19.16 at 2:43 pm

To TRT #175

Get used to Canada becoming Greece because all the debt in Canada will come home to roust.

Michael Campbell has been talking about this for years and taxing more people that have something no matter what you call it is stealing and will never work.

Pensions in Canada have an over 1 trillion dollar shortfall so if you think taxing will solve this dream on

If you and others you have guts have a 100% wealth tax on all property, investments in Canada.

See how far that gets you. You are the entitled one living off other people’s backs called the Canadian taxpayer. We live off our family’s money not yours.

Oh, by the way, call it for what it is, it is an attack on people’s success of saving their money and growing it. It is theft from neighbors, friends, families and Canada.

Go to any store and steal their goods, see how they feel and see what happens to you.

#239 conan on 01.19.16 at 2:47 pm

The TSX was looking all green earlier today. Then the bloody beavers went bad……. I see red people.

#240 saskatoon on 01.19.16 at 2:59 pm

#234 Bottoms_Up

this is simply not true.

what will def. cause loss of life is reduction in the use of fossil fuels–at least with current technology.

this may help you see through the propaganda:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zw-1ohbRDrE

#241 TurnerNation on 01.19.16 at 3:01 pm

For the cauliflower crew I suggest you hedge your portfolio, using toothbrushes Shoppers Drug Mart has this week on sale for 88 cents.
(Cheaper than Dollarama.)
Could buy then arbitrage them elsewhere. ..

#242 Paul on 01.19.16 at 3:07 pm

#206 IHCTD9 on 01.19.16 at 11:40 am

#204 Daisy Mae on 01.19.16 at 11:02 am

And that’s why Harper is gone, an incumbent has taken his place, and the party attempts to regroup.
____________________________________________

Meanwhile in Ottawa…

Looks like we’ve already got housing shortages happening for our hastily imported Syrian immigrants. JT wants 25K+ in here asap, gets about 6K in the door and promptly runs out of housing. I’d hate to be a non privately sponsored Syrian immigrant right about now. At least the sponsored ones have money, brains, and diligent workers behind them. Not to mention a roof over their heads…

T2 hasn’t even put the dedicated selfie cam down and got to work yet – and look at the mess waiting for him. He best start thinking about less important things on his agenda – like working Canadians and the economy.

Ahhh, who am I kidding?
———————————————————-
Come on T2 is working very hard.He’s even making the huge sacrifice and taking his skis with him, Oh and his selfie stick

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/davos-or-bust-economy-follows-trudeau-to-switzerland

Party On!!!! I here the Orange juice now is $20 a glass

#243 Nick on 01.19.16 at 3:10 pm

Canada become Greece??? Lets not get hysterical. Some people will loose their overpriced houses. Many will give up buying nonessential items. Belt tightening all around. However, most Canadians will continue doing what they’re doing. No apocalypse.

#244 Henry Stein on 01.19.16 at 3:16 pm

Why is TRT on an investment blog which he or she favors wealth taxes, capital taxes and other taxes on on what remains from people’s savings, investments, property, capital, principal etc., throughout their lifetime and family’s lifetime?

All the taxes Canadians already pay and paid on their income at 30% to 50% income tax rates and on other taxes from G.S.T., H.S.T., property taxes, other municipal and provincial taxes, levies like garbage taxes, land transfer taxes, car registration taxes, fees etc. gasoline taxes, excise taxes, alcohol and tobacco taxes, capital gains taxes, income taxes on interest, dividends, pensions, C.P.P, OAS, RRIF’s, RRSP’s, C.P.P, E.I. etc.

Don’t forget taxes on businesses that we as consumers, investors, savers ultimately pay through higher prices, fees. We also lose through annual inflation, higher prices, currency devaluation etc.

Once most Canadians paid all these taxes they will lucky to be left with 20 to 30 cents on the dollar.

This remaining savings, investments, principal, capital etc. now will be taxed again that was already taxed probably 6,7, 8 times at the very least.

If this is the case and Canadians are not taxed to death enough according to TRT and others that think that way then just tax us at 100% in the beginning and it will be done with, much simpler for those that don’t like people to have their own property, money, investments etc.

This is what an uneducated, not that smart, society turns to socialism which crumbles in the end. People better get used to that as TRT and others that think this way will never accept.

#245 Godth on 01.19.16 at 3:20 pm

It’s fun to mine the future until it’s not…
http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/

#246 For those about to flop... on 01.19.16 at 3:28 pm

#235 IHCTD9 on 01.19.
I have some hope for Bill, we will see. Trudeau is a talking head puppet, I would rather have had Mulcair. Harper was voted out, no one was voted in, and Trudeau is just filling the vacuum.

/////////////////////////////////
Let’s just go all the way….Mike Duffy would have been a better P.M
At least Duffy just plays dumb whereas the Metrosexual Messiah(t.m) is dumb….

M41BC

#247 Chameau on 01.19.16 at 3:31 pm

#75 Smoking Man

I suspect they will cut rates March 9th, 2016. Doubt they will cut this week. I think we are in for a reversal, the market is crazy oversold. We might see oil rebound to $33/barrel by Feb, then back to $23/barrel before March, just in time to axe those rates and screw the citizens more.

That’s my take, what say you?

#248 Blogbitch on 01.19.16 at 3:31 pm

Sell high. Buy low. Don’t yet yellow snow.
So simple and yet, yellow snow is akin to debt in this country. Snorfle. Snorfle.

#249 Dups on 01.19.16 at 3:31 pm

source: tradingeconomics.com

#250 Bottoms_Up on 01.19.16 at 3:33 pm

#235 IHCTD9 on 01.19.16 at 2:26 pm
—————–
He also stood for muzzling MPs, scientists, data, killing democracy and for controlling the message. Canada is much better off without him.

Whereas Trudeau puts trust and faith in all of the above (and rightly so).

Not exactly. No Lib MP can be pro-life, for example. That’s a democracy-killer, no? Where’s the diversity of opinion and tolerance of others in such an edict? T2 has also decided to use gender as a qualification for advancement over ability. Seems draconian. Or is it okay to muzzle and control when you’re morally superior? — Garth

#251 Bottoms_Up on 01.19.16 at 3:40 pm

#218 MF on 01.19.16 at 12:49 pm
———————
Trudeau is responsible for a democracy, unlike his predecessor. You’re free to move to North Korea, Russia or Syria if you enjoy harpers style of governing. Disgusting really, and all conservative MPs should be ashamed of themselves for their (complacent) part in killing democracy.

#252 Were Screwed on 01.19.16 at 3:46 pm

#159 Smoking Man on 01.18.16 at 11:58 pm

T2 wife sings, we are so fkd. Well not me.

Called this shit a while ago, took measures,

And that’s all I’m saying about it.

So look forward to the two gay bastards that copied my selection of glasses that I was tempted to run over on my weekly trip , usually on a Sunday to San Fransesco foods on Clinton street for a hot stake sandwich.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Can’t say I like Smoking Man or agree with him often at all but this T2 and his singing wife are way out of their leagues. Almost every single time I see Junior on TV or in the newspaper he is taking smiling selfies with everyone. Half of the time he is not even dressed as a professional. Jacket off, shirt sleeves rolled up and tie loosened. For Gods sake your a Prime Minister act like one! What a joke he is. Is his wife now soliciting to get on Canada’s got talent? Your a wife of a Prime Minister act like one. Canada was just snubbed at a meeting at an anti-ISIS coalition meeting this week in Paris.
Defence ministers from France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Australia and the Netherlands will join U.S. Secretary of Defence Ashton Carter on Wednesday to discuss the future of the fight against the extremist group. Where is the country that used to be a proud coalition partner in the fight against terrorism. Probably taking self absorbed selfies and singing second class french songs. Well SM has the tenacity to call it as is is on this one.

#253 Bottoms_Up on 01.19.16 at 3:54 pm

#182 GTA Owner on 01.19.16 at 7:45 am
———————–
And i’m sure Garths point was you missed the boat (when the dollar was stronger)

#254 MF on 01.19.16 at 4:11 pm

#239 Bottoms_Up on 01.19.16 at 3:40 pm

Spare me your hyperbole Pal. It’s you who should move to North Korea or Russia or Syria and see what a real dictator is.

I actually liked Harper’s foreign policy. Did I like him personally or his style of leadership? Not exactly. Still has more leadership qualities than our current PM does whether you like it or not.

MF

#255 45north on 01.19.16 at 4:32 pm

“As our government has made clear, we’re moving towards a low-carbon economy,” she said. “We’re making significant investments in green infrastructure. Also in clean technologies. So there’s real opportunities there to grow our economy. So I’m making that case.”

If there was any question about the stakes the Liberals face in turning the economy around, they were underscored earlier in the day when Saskatoon-based Potash Corp of Saskatchewan, or PotashCorp, suspended production at its potash operation in nearby Picadilly, N.B. The move affects more than 400 jobs, and comes amid widespread layoffs in western Canada’s energy sector.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/trudeau-off-to-davos-as-economic-challenges-mount

Trudeau cannot afford to ignore the oil industry. He may not know it but he cannot. My plan is to build infrastructure to support the tar sands and build refineries in Alberta. building roads and bridges in Alberta could start in the spring. I’m guessing it would take a year to design the refineries.

Another project is to fund and build a prototype nuclear reactor:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2015/01/07/nuclear-power-turns-to-salt/#2715e4857a0b520353103d3d
Refurbishing Pickering is going to cost a lot. It’s something that should be done but it’s like putting a new roof on an old house. You still end up with an old house.

As far as green energy I would try to double our production: from 1% to 2%. Operative word is try.

#256 Zoro on 01.19.16 at 4:33 pm

Bottoms_Up #250, it’s true everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but don’t confuse opinion with a bullxxxit.
You are an idiot!

#257 jess on 01.19.16 at 4:36 pm

Aussie banks have $31bn exposure to oil and gas
http://www.pressreader.com/australia/the-sydney-morning-herald/20160120/281964606726121/TextView

Wells Fargo (WFC) is sitting on more than $17 billion in loans to the oil and gas ..etc

==========
lookback to 1963 -eurodollars and the BofE. memo with attitude!
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2014/03/19/the-much-too-special-relationship/

#258 Henry Stein on 01.19.16 at 4:50 pm

Don’t forget about health taxes too, $600 to $900 a year that we were paying now and what happened about all the income taxes we were paying for health care.

Carbon taxes, cap and trade and other energy policies that have raised electricity prices in Ontario by 300% in 10 years and over $37 billion overcharged and will cost us all thousands more a year for energy, food etc.

Water rates are up 300% just in Toronto in just 12 years. What a bunch of thieves and liars.

#259 earthboundmisfit on 01.19.16 at 4:57 pm

Not exactly. No Lib MP can be pro-life, for example. That’s a democracy-killer, no? Where’s the diversity of opinion and tolerance of others in such an edict? T2 has also decided to use gender as a qualification for advancement over ability. Seems draconian. Or is it okay to muzzle and control when you’re morally superior? — Garth

There are bigger worries my friend. Like the influence being wielded now in Ottawa by the eco-warrior Gerald Butts, the man who singlehandedly f***ed up Ontario’s energy policy / future.

#260 cramar on 01.19.16 at 5:02 pm

Seems in the U.S. that wealth inequality is 100 times worse than income inequity.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wealth-inequality-is-100-times-worse-than-income-inequality-2016-01-19

“There’s nothing surer,
The rich get richer
And the poor buy houses.
In the meantime, in between time,
Ain’t we got fun?”

[My apologies for bastardizing the original lyrics.]

#261 Loonie Watcher on 01.19.16 at 5:02 pm

Palin just endorsed Trump. Watch out Canada, you’re going to get Trumped! Loonie to 0.50 by the end of the year, you can count on it.

#262 Hicksville Alberta on 01.19.16 at 5:07 pm

#257 et al Henry Stein

Think you are getting pretty close to the edge of the Black Hole of Government, Bureaucracy, and Public – everywhere, everything, always.

Combined with a completely dumbed down sheeple populace in spades.

What could possibly go wrong? And what could possibly go right?

And so to paraphrase the Bellamy Brothers in one of their songs………. ” The world keeps changing till he just can’t change no more ” ………. ” So he grows a little garden in the backyard by the fence, consuming what he does nowadays in self defence ” ………. ” He gets out there in the twilight zone when it just don’t make no sense “……….

Good luck and hair on ya ………

#263 Zoro on 01.19.16 at 5:12 pm

We need conservative society to succeed. Liberalism put our kids on a wrong path towards socialist ideology. Propagates lack of competitiveness, lack of education desire, lack of individualism, lack of progress. Especially in T2 Canada, those on path for success and financially independent are being penalized with higher taxes an scrutinized for their abilities. What message is T2 telling my kids, our kids? Don’t worry abou education, don’t be successful because I’m coming after you with higher taxes? It reminds me Great Bolshewick revolution from 1917 based on Marx/Engels ideology. This is unexceptable. People don’t fly to Moon because they are socialists. Anyone sharing Bottom_up’s opinions should have undergo at least Colonoscopy if not head examination, but most importantly you are prime example for improvement in level of education, to get yourself a competitive edge in real world so you don’t have to hide among organized labor or goverment jobs to make it through the life. Same applies to our dumb politicians.

#264 A Canadian Abroad on 01.19.16 at 5:12 pm

I hope Garth does a feature on this FEAR that’s residing here vs Canada and the Canadian Dollar.

Right now is a BUYING opportunity. Remember, buy when those are fearful around you, sell into greed.

Sell USD, Buy CAD.

#265 45north on 01.19.16 at 5:36 pm

Jaguar: If we are in the ditch due to oil & gas can we at least take some collective responsibility?

it’s so much easier to blame somebody else.

Rick: Bought a 12 pack of day old oatmeal cookies with dried fruit for $1.50 at my local bakery; and a small Tim’s for $1.50 at the drive thru.

Sounds like you live large. — Garth

pretty funny

Aggregator: This pretty much means a downgrade is imminent and that Alberta’s borrowing costs are about to rise.

But don’t worry about Alberta because the big elephant in the room is Ontario, who is heading for an economic crisis without any major reforms within the next decade.

“economic crisis without any major reforms” that does add clarity

WUL ( washed up lawyer ): I have run many wrongful dismissal suits.

First, if your lawsuit is ready to proceed to trial today (Alberta), your trial date will be in mid-2017, if you are lucky.

hmm “mid-2017” with a judgement 2018? you’d need to buy a lot of groceries between now and then

Strathcona: Here in Grande Prairie it’s getting more dangerous. Crime is rising, mostly robberies by broke or drugged up people.

that got my attention

Jane 24: So what exports are they talking about? Can anyone enlighten me.

I’m thinking there is still is manufacturing in Canada. For those companies a 25% drop in the Canadian dollar is basically just dropping wages. thanks a lot Poloz.

InvestorZ: If you don’t have a tech job, you should worry. Teach your kids to code c# and java.

maybe

Northof49: people in Ontario live south of 49° you live in Burlington.

maxx: For all the spittle of “helping the middle class” and “protecting our economy”, there will be no good to come out of it – none.

let’s be clear: the price of oil is not Justin Trudeau’s fault but there are measures he could put in place to soften the blow. Like design and build refineries in Alberta. The price of potash ash is not Justin Trudeau’s fault but he could build infrastructure around the existing mines.

Let’s see what he says in Davos

Suzie Q: back from a weekend trip through Calgary and Edmonton.

Yards upon yards of rigs and equipment parked and sitting idle.

Other than that, though, little evidence of hard times, .

if I were a politician I would be doing absolutely everything I could to line up work. Even then, the jobs would not be there tomorrow.

#266 Old Man Too on 01.19.16 at 5:47 pm

#140 Freeman:
OK guys, get real, truck nuts aren’t allowed to leave the province!
Filled up with gas in Edmonton yesterday: 68.9

#267 TRT on 01.19.16 at 6:02 pm

@HenryStein

It is coming. Venting won’t make it go away.

That’s how democracy works. Oh, and nice grammar and syntax. :)

#268 TRT on 01.19.16 at 6:05 pm

And Henry, if you think you’re getting taxed too much, move to another country. We live in a globalized world now. Come to Vancouver and see how many Asians have moved here because they didn’t like their originating country.

You’re free to leave as well. Wealth taxes are coming. Ex. Inheritance taxes etc.

#269 TRT on 01.19.16 at 6:11 pm

Smoking Man, Leo, Shane, etc.

Can you guys get this Henry Steiner Stalker away from me? He’s obsessed with my posts.

On the FX front, something tells me that no rate cut tomorrow. Poloz will speak like it was his decision. Lol. (It was the Big 5’s decision).

Expect a 1 cent spike in loonie before it fades away in the afternoon. Loonie at 69.4 cents by end of day tom. My prediction. Will decide tomoro whether to invest in Canada for a few hours at least.

#270 Cheese on 01.19.16 at 6:12 pm

I am 34 years old. I make 25k a year, damn near minimum. I walk to work and brown bag, ive saved 60k and recently bought (prior to the crash we are having) VXC and Tangerine Growth, and am watching it all disappear while buying power goes to hell. I have no hope anymore…

#271 espressobob on 01.19.16 at 6:57 pm

#270 Cheese

If you keep averaging in over time, you may find yourself with the last laugh.

#272 jaybee on 01.19.16 at 8:34 pm

Oh, and I bought some Cauliflower for $2.50 here in Cole Harbour Nova Scotia. I was tempted to hoard it…but that never works out well.

#273 jaybee on 01.19.16 at 8:45 pm

#270 Cheese on 01.19.16 at 6:12 pm

Hey Cheese. You sound way too smart to be making that little money. Keep it up, and focus on earning more and saving at the same rate. You got this! Meantime smart people are buying here. You should keep up what you’re doing. Keep it up!

#274 Jimmy Dix on 01.20.16 at 3:24 am

*********************************

115 For those about to flop… on 01.19.16 at 9:21 pm

Joking Man #103

We had muscle cars and T-bar roofs. We beat the living shit out of anyone moving in on our Chic’s. I once dropped four Italians in the parking lot cause one below a kiss toward my date.

//////////////////////////////
Pushing over four mannequins out the front of an Italian clothing store is no big deal…
If I recall correctly it was also really windy that day…

M41BC
*********************************

@Flop, best comment of the evening, fell out of my chair laughing :-)

@Joking Man #103
I’m assuming you are single (or soon to be), and so I will impart some friendly advice:
1. Do not refer to your “date” as a “Chic”
2. Please stay out of the pool:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ai49Yv_5v4o&t=13m39s

#275 Soothsayer on 01.20.16 at 10:18 am

No interest rate cut…

Told you so!!!!

#276 Oh No!! on 01.20.16 at 5:50 pm

Oh no! How is this possible!?? Incredible!! No blog post today, on such an important day? Aaaarghhhh!!!

Coming. Go play with your dog for an hour. — Garth