What to do now

GUITAR modified

In September of 1947 a passenger train with wooden-walled cars crashed into a freight with modern steel cars and a mess of people were mashed. That is about the last exciting thing that happened in Dugald, Manitoba, twenty clicks outside of The Peg.

At least, until Thursday, when Po’ Bill Morneau the finance minister tried to tell reporters everything was fine.

“Outside investors should be confident about Canada,” he replied to a question about our disappearing dollar. “We live in a fantastic country with abundant natural resources of course, but also a highly educated workforce, and we have the room to make some significant investments to stimulate our economy and to create a more productive Canada over the long term.”

We now know outside investors were none too impressed with the Pablum political response – the first government utterance since our currency started its current death swoon – an event that will now lead to a rate cut on Wednesday. The dollar was rudely caboosed hours later, and finished Friday down more than three-quarters of a cent, at 68.8 US pennies. It’s lost almost 11% in the 90 days since Mr. Morneau and his buds were elected. That is a new all-time record for loss of confidence in our national currency.

It also looks like we’re on the way back to 2013 in terms of federal deficits, since the feds have committed to a big whack of stimulus spending, at the same time government revenues are set to cascade lower. Blame oil for that, plus a recession we’re likely entering. All of it – the price of crude, mounting job losses, the Bank of Canada chop, the return of deficits, Bay Street blues plus the anticipated impact of historic household debt – is behind the currency plop. Looks like there may be more to come.

By the way, talking oil, Calgary-based analysts at Peters & Co. estimate that at current prices Alberta producers are burning $12 billion a year to keep the lights on – more than thirty million a day in losses. The black stuff is at a 12-year low, and Canadian oil trades at a discount to the benchmark price for crude from Texas – where they don’t have a 50% marginal tax rate nor an anti-oil NDP government with a shiny new carbon tax.

Investors have been shedding the dollar and moving into the security of government bonds – pushing the yields down to the lowest levels in history. Speaking of historic events, the current slide in the value of the dollar (11 consecutive days) is the longest since Prime Minister Trudeau (no, the first one) unhooked our currency from the US buck in 1970 when it was worth 95 cents American. It’s ironic his son may be in power when the dollar hits the lowest value ever, if it sheds another six cents.

DOLLAR SLIDE

Well, three months ago nobody was calling for a Canadian rate cut. Last weekend the odds were 40%, rising to 50% yesterday and 65% on Friday. The Bank of Canada will be dropping back to the level it called “an emergency rate” and which we’ve seen only once – during the financial crisis of 2009. Whether the chartered banks will flow this through to their prime rates, lines of credit and variable-rate mortgages is highly debatable. Anyone waiting for five-year mortgages to fall through the 2% level is probably out of luck. Eventually, of course, they will rise. At least you’d better hope so.

So, with oil still crippled by too much supply and concerns the global economy will slow, with worries about our economy, the debt binge and with a finance minister sounding so far like a political dinglenuts, expect more dollar decline. Expect the central bank to act on Wednesday. Expect fixed-income assets to droop a bit further. Expect Bay Street to lose more until stocks are too cheap to ignore.

What to do?

If you have a mess of maple stocks, take four or five Advil and seek out a good single malt. When you awake in March, things should be a little better. If you have a balanced and globally-diversified portfolio, do nothing. Your losses will be a fraction of those equity investors face, and the recovery will be quicker. The world is not moving backwards. This ain’t 2008. It’s not even 2011.

If you’re a saver, budget. Interest paid on deposits will be among the first casualties next week, and meanwhile we all know what’s happening to the price of cauliflower. Those on fixed incomes, or who lack the confidence to be long-term investors, will be facing some tough choices and lots of KD. Rates are going down and prices are going up. It is a war on savers that you cannot win.

As for real estate, it’s hard to see any scenario in which the experience of the last two years in YVR or the GTA is repeated. Yes, news of a rate cut and the coming hike in down payments may stampede a bunch of moist Twidiots into making offers and closing deals now, but the legs are being cut out from under the market as a whole. Job loss, investment loss, economic stress, currency decline and tighter credit all seem to lie ahead in varying degrees.

If you’ve made money on your house, capital gains tax-free, then consider grabbing it – especially if you’re a Boomer with less than a heaping retirement fund. Or, you can join poor Bill and wait for the next train wreck.

366 comments ↓

#1 NoName on 01.15.16 at 6:14 pm

#312 James2 on 01.15.16 at 2:56 pm

The master of google matriculation?
Did you forget a few weeks ago he couldn’t even calculate gallons vs litres from his recent trip to his gambling junket!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

James, you are not seeing obvious before your eyes, that great minds are often [email protected]$#!7 crazy.  Watch this , it will help you to understand what goes here on comment section.

#AreYouPonderingWhatI’mPondering 

#2 Rick on 01.15.16 at 6:14 pm

First, ohhhh yeah!!!

#3 Jimmy on 01.15.16 at 6:16 pm

FIRST!!!!!

#4 Ccptleu on 01.15.16 at 6:21 pm

I dont really understand how another rate cut can benefit the economy.. It will just tank the dollar even further….

#5 Eric on 01.15.16 at 6:22 pm

First!

#6 Brian Ripley on 01.15.16 at 6:23 pm

“…it’s hard to see any scenario in which the experience of the last two years in YVR or the GTA is repeated.” Garth

After an email exchange with a reader, I took a look at a long term chart of commodities and compared it to a chart of Vancouver Housing.

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/behind-the-curve

There is a resemblance in the momentum of the two charts especially between the generational breakout in commodities in the early 1970’s and the runaway train that is Vancouver housing prices post the dotcom bust.

What is surprising is the degree to which the Vancouver (and Toronto) housing bulls can stay on their momentum course especially since the underlying assets (wood, concrete, steel, copper etc) have been officially in a bear market since 2011 after peaking in 2008.

In 2008 we did get a selloff in housing prices but ZIRP has indeed been effective in making cash and GIC savings worthless especially in the face of a triple digit price inflation in SFD housing in the last decade (both in Vancouver and Toronto).

If this ongoing paper asset selloff is another indication of being in a long term deflationary cycle (think Japan) then it is not just Vancouver and Toronto that are overpriced… it’s real estate everywhere in Canada.

One only has to think back to the 1980’s housing bear and remember what happened to fringe housing markets; prices collapsed first in recreational properties and low wage service sector towns and then it spread to the bigger centers.

That would be a repetition.

#7 Doug t on 01.15.16 at 6:23 pm

FIST

#8 For those about to flop... on 01.15.16 at 6:24 pm

My version of a b and d portfolio is down around 5% since the year got a six in it…
Gonna bide my time but only looking to add ,not subtract.
Not looking to get involved with the fx mania either.
I don’t know enough, even though it looks like easy pickings at the moment …
Knowing me I wouldn’t get burnt …I would blow my whole hand off!

M41BC

#9 Nicolas on 01.15.16 at 6:24 pm

2.99$ cauliflower in Montreal today. Eating some right now. Bon appétit!

#10 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 01.15.16 at 6:25 pm

“Twidiots ” – so funny

I hope all these wonderful words you regularly invent are getting recorded in the Oxford dictionary.. well at least the urban one.

#11 Franco on 01.15.16 at 6:26 pm

Stay calm and do nothing when you do not know what to do.

#12 JB on 01.15.16 at 6:27 pm

Welcome To The New Normal: The Dow Crashes Another 390 Points And Wal-Mart Closes 269 Stores

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/welcome-to-the-new-normal-the-dow-crashes-another-390-points-and-wal-mart-closes-269-stores

#13 Ken Nash on 01.15.16 at 6:28 pm

So this is a good time, for the province to sell land in Pickering, so the new city of Seaton, future home to 70,000 people and some 11,000 high paying short term jobs it’s supporters crow. Can be built on Class A farmland the last intact watershed in the 905? After all folks are too over the top for fresh produce anyway. Everyone know processed is best! js

#14 Love my Kia on 01.15.16 at 6:30 pm

Its not just Canada here, the DOW has been consistently dropping more points than the TSX has in recent months.

This doesn’t bode well for those who think the US is a happy place to invest in.

The numbers on the board only show ‘what’, not ‘how’. Yeah I know in your defense, China………

On the flip side I’m loving my USD account.

#15 Jonathan on 01.15.16 at 6:31 pm

My growth stuff was red, safe stuff green, exactly as it should be. On paper I’m down about 4.x% but I’m not doing anything other than trying to prevent some of my friends from hitting the panic button and sell equities “because I want to stop the bleeding” – no do not crystallize your losses! “I should buy gold…” – No!!!!! But alas, it’s not my money and there’s only so much I can do…

#16 Bullard Dudley Yellen? for President…. on 01.15.16 at 6:35 pm

gee, what’s happening to the odds for those 4 rate hikes this year?

I’m confused…Dudley says the Fed is ready for negative rates if things get worse?
gosh, that would mean ‘one and done’….

what’s up with that…Yellen said the US economy rocks so time to raise rates….
and Obama said the same in his SOTU speech…

poor retail sales in the US even with the strong $ and emergency interest rates?
what about all those new jobs putting lots of $ into their pockets?

and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) for the fourth quarter of 2015 is 0.6 percent on January 15, down from 0.8 percent on January 8.

it’s looking less like ‘rock’ and more like ‘cockamany’…

Janet has the balls but needs some steel toe boots for a good kick ‘up and to the right’!

#17 Joe Schmoe on 01.15.16 at 6:35 pm

Good post Garth.

I am not normally a doom and gloomer… I think steady as she goes is a good strategy.

But it is going to hurt in Canada until at least late 2017-2018.

The tax grab on the rich is going to backfire. Huge. People can see why when they read about small businesses going into peak debt.

Tax revenue will be good in Q1-2016 and then nada.

Corporate tax increases will generate nothing. Who’s profitable right now? People with personal companies should have collapsed net worth in 2015.

That $600 buck annual middle class gift will disappear faster then my kids can spend it.

Feds are going to be scraping pennies off the floor and allowing people to reuse them by the end of 2016.

#18 Doug t on 01.15.16 at 6:35 pm

It’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.

On the other hand it’s just beginning of a long dark economic slump brought on by massive debt worldwide – the rich got richer and are now leaving the playground –

#19 Retired Boomer WI on 01.15.16 at 6:35 pm

So, with markets in a tizzy, dubious loans on the edge off default, retail in the dumpster, and FREE OIL nowadays – the price to fill up the Caddy went down yet again!!

Another day, another 3 grand pissed away in the market.
Easy Come, easy go, as I always maintain. It’s only ever a real ‘loss’ if you do something stupid. Paid the charge card bill in full today, you know the ugly one with the Christmas largesse on it.

This has to end sometime, but when nobody seems to know. The balanced portfolio is working out nicely. but pain is still PAIN!

I didn’t go with the wife grocery shopping today, couldn’t stand to see those expensive veggies! She did find some great looking oranges though, 5 for a $1. Sure beats the cauliflower!

Even cashed in my big Powerball winner. $4 at least a 100% return on the ticket (I only bought one).

3 weeks till Florida defrost cycle time!!

#20 acdel on 01.15.16 at 6:36 pm

304 today, oh yeah, not first but possibly the last!

For those under 55 go long, lot’s of good prices out there in blue chips due to panic selling! Everything is over sold due to unnecessary panic; everyday the population is increasing and will need lot’s of resources in the future to live the wonderful life that we do in Canada.
Hey, traded two heads of cauliflower for a chicken, good bottle of home made wine, onions, and a bottle of Dubonnet, :) life is good! Have a great weekend everyone!

#21 Lulu on 01.15.16 at 6:36 pm

Don’t panic folks… our PM famous quote ” The Budget will balance itself” so does everything else i guess, all things will balance itself…. Do you believe it?

People still spending big bucks to buy real estate either is blind or outrageous rich, most of us in between should avoid it like a plaque, in fact should sell it like no tomorrow and take the cash hide it in the bush.

#22 I'm stupid on 01.15.16 at 6:37 pm

In 20 years in the construction industry, I’ve never seen a builder pay a bonus to any trade. Carpenters are getting as much as a $5 per square foot premium to build homes. The major builders are trying to get as many houses up as quickly as possible. I smell a rush to the exit.

#23 waiting on the westcoast on 01.15.16 at 6:38 pm

Choo-whoo!

Putting my stake in one business up for sale to my partners in NJ. Figure the combo of the dollar spread and our business growing rapidly makes for a good time to diversify. If I get my number, will definitely be looking to invest in more tech companies seeking to irradicate jobs.

#24 Scumop on 01.15.16 at 6:39 pm

I consider the price of oil to now be fair and reasonable as it should always have been without the decades of price fixing. Price fixing by cartels of governments, individual governments (supply side management anyone?) or corporate oligarchies is not helpful.
But the world adjusted to price-fixed oil at stupidly high $.

Now thats gone. And once again the world will have to adjust. It should be for the better: dictated prices distort the natural function of markets to the benefit of those doing the dictating and no one else.

American technology companies take note: Outside of Ontarios’s golden triangle, and Vancouver, software developers / programmers can be had for as little as $35K/year Canadian (commonly 40 to 50, but even so). Many of these lesser areas produce a large surplus of programmers that cannot be absorbed locally, so they go east, west, or south.
But $35K – $50K translates to about $24K to $35K US which means these parts of Canada are competitive with India, and are in the same time zones as the American companies. The Americans may notice, and start outsourcing their tech work to Canada instead of India.
Good for our job creation numbers, good for American tech companies, good for low paid tech workers who want to remain close to families and friends.

Won’t help us buy cauliflower, but you can’t have everything.

#25 Cash is King (no more) on 01.15.16 at 6:40 pm

“We now know outside investors were none too impressed with the Pablum political response.”

What did anyone expect from a discussion that occurred in Dugald Manitoba. Was Tilbury Ontario too busy to hold presser?

What else is Poor Bill going to say? Our manufacturing sector is prepared to fully take advantage of a weak dollar. Nope. As Canada expands its green footprint employers will benefit by the increase in hydro costs. Not happen’ As we spend ourselves into oblivion on infrastructure, we fully believe that we can build bridges across this no longer great nation that can withstand temperatures that fall below -18 Celsius. well maybe

Where is Pierre’s kid anyway? I beginning to think that his picture on the cover of Vogue will be the same picture used for the side of a milk carton.

#26 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 01.15.16 at 6:41 pm

Steady on Canucks..
Cauliflower is outta control in the US as well…

“Cauliflower’s time was long in coming. For decades, it was “in broccoli’s shadow. Now it’s the star of the show,” says Christine Keller of CCD Innovation, a food industry trend analyst that pronounced cauliflower the kale of 2015.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/the-once-ignored-cauliflower-is-now-as-popular-as-j-law–and-its-799-a-head/2016/01/15/5ef7e846-b867-11e5-99f3-184bc379b12d_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_cauliflower-420pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

#27 Ryan on 01.15.16 at 6:41 pm

The currency problems will be a big hurt on households. When groceries cost a family an extra 200-300 more a month can they cope? Who needs an interest rate hike when the grocery store is forced to crank up the prices.

#28 Karl Polanyi on 01.15.16 at 6:42 pm

I sense schadenfreude.

#29 S.Bby on 01.15.16 at 6:43 pm

It does not appear our new leaders are really up to the job.

High oil prices hid our shortcomings, but look at us now…

#30 will on 01.15.16 at 6:43 pm

More layoffs coming: Torstar announced plans to close a printing plant I think it was. Anyway a bunch of jobs coming to an end in Vaughan. Also Walmart announced they are going to close 256 stores worldwide. 154 are in the USA. How’s that for an indicator of economic malaise? Warren Buffett must be a little concerned.

#31 Linda on 01.15.16 at 6:44 pm

Moan. Weep. Wail. It is THE END….. bah. Put on your big girl panties & deal with it, beginning with a serious check of the value stocks that are being pummeled like a client in a Turkish bathhouse. The true question is, when is the best time to scoop some deals? Decisions, decisions…..

#32 Nanaimo Bar on 01.15.16 at 6:44 pm

At this point, I can’t see the reason for a BOC rate cut on Wednesday. The CAD and oil have dropped in the last few days as well as the Bond Yield. Poloz has to be happy with that. Why waste a bullet when you can’t even see the enemy, yet. He only has a few bullets left. Save the bullets to be used down the road. He must be on defence, not offence at this stage with the threat of rising US rates. In this case, the best offence is a good defence.
If I’m an outside investor and I see a rate cut after having the dollar drop in the last week alone, I would be terrified of investing in Canada. If he is concerned about rising US interest rates, save the bullets for March or April. A rate cut would help the exports. But look at the damage to the Canadian consumer with rising food prices with rate cut Either way, it is a huge mess. Forget the Advil. Where is the weed?

#33 Mike on 01.15.16 at 6:45 pm

Waiting waiting…. RE keeps going up in Van/Tor.

Me in Calgary honestly see modest depreciation, and that too is only for home owners who bought at peak. Most homes still are not loosing money.

Garth, your RE predictions are not coming true – few % decline after 30-40% climbs in previous years is not a decline for most RE home owners.

Calgary has only begun. — Garth

#34 Buddy O' Pal on 01.15.16 at 6:47 pm

Hey Gartho – thanks for the stress.

What’s a man to do sitting on 75% cash and a few diversified ETFs? Our buck just doesn’t seem to go to far these days. Keep investing these pesos? Keep the cash? Buy a lot up north?

#35 Goofy2Shoes on 01.15.16 at 6:48 pm

You need to watch this short clip about a cat. It will make you forget about all this stuff (for 30 seconds anyway).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXZ_IeAmjQE

#36 jim on 01.15.16 at 6:50 pm

so the market is correcting…i’m one of the grey power guys with cash in tfsas…bank accounts paying very little…and rrsps making nothing…i’ve been waiting for the market to correct and soon i hope to get back in…any suggestions for family just reaching old age security time…i was killed in 2008 but i can no longer sit outside

#37 Grey Dog on 01.15.16 at 6:51 pm

Ken Nash, how close to Seaton is the proposed Pickering airport? Is that still on?

Is that not part of the New National Park….Rouge?

#38 Murphy on 01.15.16 at 6:54 pm

Bill Moreno he may become NoMore Bill before the next election.

Tough job but someone has to do it.

#39 Sam the Sham on 01.15.16 at 6:55 pm

With the new economic data out and the stock market rout, it looks like the rate hike narrative is coming to an end sooner than expected. Everyone knew it was nonsense to begin with. William Dudly of the FED is now predicting negative interest rates. Next up bank bail-ins where the banks, who have been gambling with derivatives get to confiscate your money. So where is you money safe? Not in stocks and bonds or ETFs that for sure. People are watching as their wealth vaporizes. let’s say you have a million dollars (not a big amount today) where is the safest place to keep it. Not in the market. Not in the banks. The safest place to hold it would be invested in your own home. If you’re fortunate enough to own your own home mortgage free or with a high level of equity you will be able to ride this out and protect your wealth. If you are a renter with your money in the markets or the banks, you are in for a world of pain! See you on the other side.

#40 Investx on 01.15.16 at 6:56 pm

Regarding Garth’s comments on the new EQ Bank…

“Why would you put money into a bank with no branches, no retail staff”

Similar to Tangerine (ING) and PCF. Working well for them.

“no track record and whose asset base is made up of mortgages in a bubble market?”

Ths is a concern yes, but it does have CDIC insurance.

#41 MSM-Free Zone on 01.15.16 at 6:57 pm

“….We live in a fantastic country with abundant natural resources of course, but also a highly educated workforce…….”
_________________________

It’s a shame that ‘highly educated workforce’ can no longer compete with other countries whose citizens don’t require above-market wages to pay for over-priced housing.

#42 Learner on 01.15.16 at 6:57 pm

“When you awake in March, things should be a little better. ”

Garth, why things would be a little better in March, RRSP season? That doesn’t sound right, those RRSP money wouldn’t be able to turn the ship around. Could you please explain, what is it?

BTW, first?

#43 meslippery on 01.15.16 at 7:01 pm

#9

2.99$ cauliflower in Montreal today. Eating some right now. Bon appétit!

Or today @ nofrills lean ground beef $3.00 per pound.
Who needs cauliflower?

#44 Me Holidays in Kanadastan on 01.15.16 at 7:01 pm

Oil at $29 and change?

The old Alberta bumper stickers said:
“Let the Eastern Bastards Freeze in the Dark”.

New bumper stickers to say:
“It’s Dark! I’m Freezing! Eastern Bastards can you Help?”

Best not to burn bridges. You may need Transfer Payments one day.

#45 espressobob on 01.15.16 at 7:02 pm

Just keep investing in quality broad based indices for the long haul.

Ignore the rubbish from other doom sites like Sprott, Faber, Schiff, or the zero dude. Usually a good recipe for negative returns.

If it all seems to hard or confusing, then hire a fee based pro. Most have better things to do in life, unlike a few oddballs in the comment section like myself.

#46 conan on 01.15.16 at 7:02 pm

Thinking of leasing a cargo plane, filling it up with cauliflower and flying it up to Iqaluit. Short a few dollars though.

#47 earthboundfmisfit on 01.15.16 at 7:04 pm

I know what not to do, but where does the new money go? Strictly defensive or buying opportunity.

#48 Victor V on 01.15.16 at 7:06 pm

http://m.thestar.com/#/article/business/2016/01/15/goldcorps-underground-dome-mine-to-close-106-years-after-first-production.html

Goldcorp Inc. has announced that it will close its Dome mine near Timmins, Ont. — one of the oldest operating gold mines in North America — amid a crushing metals downturn that has shaved nearly half its share price over the last year.

The century-old mine that is located in one of the most prolific gold regions in Canada will close this summer, affecting 115 employees and 76 contractors, the Vancouver-based miner said in a statement Friday.

#49 toronto1 on 01.15.16 at 7:06 pm

if Jan continues like that this, we will be in recession as markets are a leading indicator of things to come.

Hope your wrong about the rate cut from the BoC that would akin to walking the loonie behind a woodshed…… 65 US by end of month, lower be end of Feb

the BoC and T2 are walking a tight rope here, their window for a soft landing in RE is deteriorating quickly. With oil creep seeping into GTA and Van city, any type of mild recession or heavy job losses will result in a step crash in RE prices. extending any recovery from even a mild recession, once the cascade starts its over.

people buying into the RE market right now must be insane, reminds me of Bre X or Nortel right before the plunge– it was a great buy until it wasn’t

if hope was a drug………………..

#50 AngryMan127 on 01.15.16 at 7:08 pm

Hey Garth….me again… we’ve been in almost complete agreement for the past 6 years regarding US markets and CAD$…but when housing doesn’t collapse in YVR and YYZ maybe you’ll finally consider the impact of:

CAPITAL FLIGHT

Just saying…..

#51 MF on 01.15.16 at 7:09 pm

So why are we dropping rates then? Dropping rates last time just had the idiots go in debt more and make the ticking time bomb bigger.

Is this our only strategy? It feels like no one is flying the plane.

MF

#52 Chris on 01.15.16 at 7:12 pm

The price of cauliflower crashed from 7.99 to 3.99. The reason being it was wildly priced out of the market? Imagine if that happens to the housing price.

#53 crossbordershopper on 01.15.16 at 7:17 pm

rates will drop to zero, doesnt mean anything, banks are tightening lending in all forms not just mortgages.
the dollar will go down to 62.5 cents. thats in the cards, which is great. more reason to simply pack your bags and get out of this place. in ontario with 50% marginal tax and a contraction of who can use the ccpc structure, anyone who makes six figures in a biz might as well go get a little job in the usa. conversion for dollars, tax rates and cost of living, 50% of canadians are straight up poor. i mean straight up.
newfoundland money will die by april or may when pogie runs out, the build out of their platform is small number of people still working but in 2 years its over.
atlantic provinces are always a basket case.
quebec, who really knows what goes on there anyway.
ontario, complicated, manufacturing is done even at 50 cent dollar, we have no engineers let alone factories. in this global market anyone can get stuff made anywhere except southern ontario cheaper. that is for sure, 100% true, in that context, why would anyone set up a business here.
bc- not too bad
alberta- dont go there.
go to midwest usa, get a house for 150k not the 500k up here plus costs and low growth. you gotta go south. not even thinking about it, just pack your bags and go.

#54 common sense on 01.15.16 at 7:19 pm

#8 Flopper

I got in late to the FX game, have made a few mistakes but have also been quite conservative taking profits once in a while, put in stop losses for protection and to date am very happy…if I was a bit more risky, I’d be VERY HAPPY. But still another 5-7% I’m guessing to go at least for gains…I highly doubt your going to get that rate of gain anywhere else for a while based on the world economy, etc…

Basically spread your risk over 10 or so contracts, buy and hold on, put in your stop losses for protection then enjoy the ride.

Thank you once again Smokey!

Good luck Flopper..it’s a calculated risk in your favour and only a few times in life, these type of opportunities come your way…

#55 Freedom First on 01.15.16 at 7:19 pm

Po’ Bill Money. Aptly stated.

Well well well. Now we see who has been swimming naked in Canada. No surprise to see the tweedle dee and tweedle dums here, and all over the internet screaming the panicdotes like “sell everything and run”. Happens in every down cycle, always. It’s only a rinse and repeat exercise of the foolish and the gullible, who let fear and panic rule. Of course, I have learned how to handle my emotions so they do not rule me. That is, if I even have any left.

People know on this downturn that I have been nibbling, and also that 18 months ago I went overweight cash as I stated here when I did it. I also shared which ETF’s I invested in, and which Bonds I sold at a tasty profit. Also sold my American $ investments for a tasty profit several months ago, before the market decline which was 15% of my net, which I also stated here, Still holding 10% American $, which I also stated here.

Now, I am simply calmly watching for sales like a hawk, as always, and collecting my juicy dividends from my ETF’s. If you can stay calm when there is euphoria, greed, fear, panic, co-workers, family members, in-laws of your ball and chain, friends, all the crazy around you, then, and only then, you’re doing it right.

A one asset strategy is always ultra high risk, 2nd only to marrying a Beth. I am Blessed.

#56 For those about to flop... on 01.15.16 at 7:20 pm

#15 Mike on 01.15.16 at 6:45 pm
Waiting waiting…. RE keeps going up in Van/Tor.

Me in Calgary honestly see modest depreciation, and that too is only for home owners who bought at peak. Most homes still are not loosing money.

Garth, your RE predictions are not coming true – few % decline after 30-40% climbs in previous years is not a decline for most RE home owners.

/////////////////////////////////
Be patient Mike….there will be more than one Stampede in Calgary in the next year or so…

M41BC

#57 Nanaimo Bar on 01.15.16 at 7:20 pm

#8 for those about to flop
Not looking to get involved with the fx mania either.
I don’t know enough, even though it looks like easy pickings at the moment …
Knowing me I wouldn’t get burnt …I would blow my whole hand off!
—————————————————————

Been there, done that with FX in my younger stupid, crazy days. Everything looks easy with demo account. You make a pile of money in the demo account. When you go “live” everything starts to change. Strange things happen on the screen that don’t take place in the real world of currency trading. You end up getting wiped out and so does your account. Just stick to the old fashioned way with USD and CAD back accounts through your bank. Just my suggestion. Do what you want, but be very careful.

#58 zee on 01.15.16 at 7:20 pm

Garth, Canada added Jobs to the economy, a lot of them, last year, even with the oil crash.

I don’t see the economy as weak as you are making it out to be. This recession as you say we are in,jobs were added to the economy and housing demand went through the roof.

I think any country would love to have a recession like ours.

#59 Love my Kia on 01.15.16 at 7:22 pm

Peter Schiff said last month when the Fed raised its rates the DOW would drop, and it did.

Don’t shoot the messenger.

#60 Peppy sue on 01.15.16 at 7:22 pm

For those of us who currently don’t hold any, Preferreds are looking like too much of a bargain to pass up.

#61 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 01.15.16 at 7:23 pm

It’s not Canada. It’s the same problem everywhere. Too much debt. All the oil exporting countries are taking the extra kicks.

But have a look at today Atlanta FED GDP now chart. They delayed the release until after close (tech difficulties). Hanging by a thread after the Fed has been pushing on a string. 0.6% growth. That is why exports will suck even with a weak C $.

The reality about the US $ is that it is flat YTD when measured against its basket, the DXY. That is surprising given the turmoil of the last two weeks, and means that oil ain’t going to 20!

#62 Andy on 01.15.16 at 7:25 pm

Love your column Garth and would welcome your views of deficits.

As things continue to slide across the country, I am beginning to support running much larger Federal deficits to create jobs and repair / build infrastructure. Our debt % may seem high historicall but even if T2 approved $20 Million a year for the next 4, our % would be well below many countries and a fraction of economies such as Japan.

I am beginning to believe that this is the only way to get us living in a positive direction.

Billion, not million. — Garth

#63 Andy on 01.15.16 at 7:25 pm

Typo. $20 Billion a year for the next 4.

#64 IKnow on 01.15.16 at 7:26 pm

Most Vancouverites believe a house here is the best hedge against CAD devaluation.

The last time local fundamentals have any impact on YVR house prices I was full of hormones, now I’m nearing qualify to get government pension.

#65 tom black on 01.15.16 at 7:28 pm

I don’t want to sound like a doomer but I feel we never really had the crash and clear-out we should have had in 2008. Money printing since has found its way into the shadow banking system and has be funnelled into the stock market creating the illusion of prosperity and growth.

In a capitalist society banks should not be bailed out when they fail! that happened once already, who bails them out next time?

I predict the markets will drop by up to 50% minimum, its already huge when you price in the currency weakness. Housing in Canada 40-60% down from peak. West coast will be less and will recover swiftly. Precious metals will offer some protection, huge gains in the Silver market as the herds charge in. Select mining stocks that have been hammered during this false recovery will bounce back strongly and offer a chance to recoup general market losses, in fact I think fortunes will be made here.

This is bad, I would pour a stiff drink and start researching ways to protect yourself from this, that is if its not too late already. If you are highly leveraged in the markets or in real estate, I’m afraid its already too late for you, finish the bottle.

So many readers search for answers here on this site and I can’t help but feel our host is beginning to feel just as confused as the rest of us. Just keep in mind he owes you nothing, the world owes you nothing..

solutions are available, good luck

#66 Victor V on 01.15.16 at 7:28 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/toronto-star-confirms-closure-of-vaughan-plant-285-jobs-affected/article28210116/?service=mobile

Faced with the continuing pressures of a print publishing industry in decline, the Toronto Star is closing its printing plant and culling its head count.

The move signals a recognition of the new reality for newspapers like the Star after years of falling print advertising revenue, but comes at a hefty human cost. The plant’s closing means 220 full-time and 65 part-time staff at the plant will lose their jobs, and the Star also announced Friday it is cutting 13 digitally focused positions from the newsroom, 15 from circulation and offering voluntary buyouts to remaining newsroom staff.

#67 Lee on 01.15.16 at 7:31 pm

Why not payoff your Mortage at these rates. I have been aggressively paying at 2.79. Yeah cheapest money I will ever borrow. Less debt less interest. Basic math to me. Mortage debt one way or another you owe equity.

#68 46 and 2 on 01.15.16 at 7:32 pm

In the middle of nowhere Alberta (better known as Fort Mac) there is a sinking feeling that without some form of economical transport system for bitumen that will enable the product to get to either refineries or tide water the entire show might be poop for years/decades to come. Talk about land locked….the location of the tar sands may as well be Siberia. Without consistent and sustained prices above $60.00 per barrel and numerous pipelines to get the product to the customer many are wondering if the asset is viable. After all….bitumen is now just another feedstock material that we have no price control over….as usual.

#69 common sense on 01.15.16 at 7:35 pm

#55 Freedom First

I KNEW it…”if I have any emotions left.”

Your an Android! Spock a distant relation?

In all seriousness, yep those who follow the herd, keep up with the Jones, yadda yadda yadda….

#70 Darren on 01.15.16 at 7:37 pm

The (tsx) Bull is dead, long live the Bear!

The market goes up, the market goes down, not necessarily in that order. No big deal in the long run.

#71 BS on 01.15.16 at 7:39 pm

“Outside investors should be confident about Canada,” he replied to a question about our disappearing dollar. “We live in a fantastic country with abundant natural resources of course, but also a highly educated workforce, and we have the room to make some significant investments to stimulate our economy and to create a more productive Canada over the long term.”

Bill, the highly talented workforce is leaving. Remember you just increased their taxes to 55%. Outside investors do not like getting back 68 cents on the dollar of what they invested when the need to repatriate. The most abundant natural resource we have is oil. Remember T2 and Notely are doing all they can to shutdown the oil sands. So far the only significant investments the T2 government has made are the 4 billion given to third world countries to fight climate change. Not going to stimulate our economy one bit.

Could this government be anymore clueless?

#72 Doug t on 01.15.16 at 7:39 pm

Garth I have a GIC coming due middle of Feb with 200k – any suggestions?

#73 John on 01.15.16 at 7:40 pm

Wow, what a ride. Are we there, yet?

#74 maya on 01.15.16 at 7:41 pm

i have 20 thousand for tfsa. i have opened a questrade account. where should i allocate them.please help me. will save and add moreoney. but now i m so anxious which etf to buy. i am 39 no debt n house. currently renting and saving 1500 a month .

#75 Trojan House on 01.15.16 at 7:43 pm

#2, 3, 5 & to anyone else who writes: first!

If you think you are first, you are most likely not since some other knucklehead is thinking the exact same thing only a minute or two before you.

Either post something beneficial or something Smoking Man-like incoherent which becomes clear after a bottle of JD and a bag of weed.

#76 Van-tastic$$ on 01.15.16 at 7:47 pm

There’s been no lay offs or plant closures or slack jawd rig pigs crying in the beers here in 604 land. This isn’t Windsor and there ain’t no bumper plant here. Look to BC to lead the country in growth , Garth’s little doomer report has nothing todo with van except the film industry is lick it’s chops and the lumber Mils can’t keep up with orders from the states. Sorry Garth your dead wrong about yvr.

#77 mike from Mtl on 01.15.16 at 7:49 pm

With all this ‘free market’ volatility aptly I was in a somewhat heated argument with a boomer colleague about RE/investments.

As usual the old arguments, ..pay some one else’s mortgages… income properties, etc.

But wow, found out he racked up, maxed out four CC, LoC, borrowed loans for a down payment on ‘income property’. Super sketch but as usual the system benefits folks like this with no ACTUAL funds at hand, rather those to take the risk of having literally two million on their heads without prejudice makes me sick.

I have several times the free capital he does yet on paper and to anyone who will listen, stupid to pay rent.

In the end I couldn’t argue with his math in that despite being in the hole for ~1m the monthlies totally add up and he’s cool. Seriously even said “never mind paying it all off just keep re-mortaging and getting more until your monthlies make you positive to pay off everything plus your own”.

Be either happy or right I guess. Crazy stupid system we have mode for ourselves yes?

That is one of the reasons I HATE RE in this warped silly land of basically worthless money/debt. The hell am I still doing here?

#78 MSM-Free Zone on 01.15.16 at 7:49 pm

“….Calgary has only begun. — Garth……”
____________________________

Any bets on how long before the Lambo dealership on Heritage Drive closes its doors?

http://www.lamborghinicalgary.com/

#79 BS on 01.15.16 at 7:50 pm

Love my Kia on 01.15.16 at 6:30 pm

Its not just Canada here, the DOW has been consistently dropping more points than the TSX has in recent months.

This doesn’t bode well for those who think the US is a happy place to invest in.

The S&P 500 is up over 20% yoy in CAD where the TSX is down over 10%. I think I will take the US.

https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/individual/mvc/detail/etf/overview?portId=9563&assetCode=EQUITY##performance

#80 For those about to flop... on 01.15.16 at 7:51 pm

#57 Nanaimo Bar on 01.15.16 at 7:20 pm
#8 for those about to flop
Not looking to get involved with the fx mania either.
I don’t know enough, even though it looks like easy pickings at the moment …
Knowing me I wouldn’t get burnt …I would blow my whole hand off!
—————————————————————

Been there, done that with FX in my younger stupid, crazy days. Everything looks easy with demo account. You make a pile of money in the demo account. When you go “live” everything starts to change. Strange things happen on the screen that don’t take place in the real world of currency trading. You end up getting wiped out and so does your account. Just stick to the old fashioned way with USD and CAD back accounts through your bank. Just my suggestion. Do what you want, but be very careful.

////////////////////////
Hey N.B,yeah I’m more looking to do it the slow and steady way.It looks like has been easy for the fx because the powers that be are telegraphing everything.
To be honest it didn’t really bother me too much that the dollar was slowly sliding ,but at some stage I would like to have seen some stronger rhetoric and go down swinging instead of with a whimper.
Politicians and public figures want to be loved but that’s not what they are there for.
Can’t just toss everything in the “too hard basket” all the time….sick of this attitude.
I get pissed off when the driver of the bus is asleep at the wheel…

M41BC

#81 Vancouver Troy on 01.15.16 at 7:52 pm

With the recent decline is there any reason not to load up on ETF’s like iShares FIE now that the yield is 8%?

#82 Daisy Mae on 01.15.16 at 7:54 pm

“….If you have a mess of maple stocks, take four or five Advil and seek out a good single malt. When you awake in March, things should be a little better…”

****************

You do realize some posters will take you literally? ;-)…and a LOL

#83 The Wynne Factor on 01.15.16 at 7:55 pm

“The three per cent growth in exports from July to September was the biggest since 2013 thanks to a sliding dollar that continues to make Canadian goods cheaper on world markets.’In an increasingly competitive and challenging global market, Ontario’s economy continues to grow well,’ Finance Minister Charles Sousa said in a statement Friday….

‘“The rise in exports is most certainly tied to our lower dollar, and nothing that this government has done. ‎ It makes you wonder where we could be in Ontario if we had sound fiscal management, competitive hydro rates and less red tape,” said Fedeli, his party’s finance critic.'” – ‘Ontario economy posts modest third-quarter growth boosted by lag in loonie’ by Rob Ferguson, Toronto Star (link)

My own estimate is that Ontario would be running about 5 to 6% growth if Wynne hadn’t crapped all over the province with her cringeworthy and costly initiatives.

#84 Bobs ur uncle on 01.15.16 at 7:56 pm

Dog’s name is Maddie. I own a calendar with this photo among other similar ones. For other interested dog lovers:

http://maddieonthings.com

#85 MSM-Free Zone on 01.15.16 at 7:57 pm

#44 Me Holidays in Kanadastan on 01.15.16 at 7:01 pm
_____________________________

“Howdy, partner. Would you like fries with that crow?”
– from a former Ralph Klein ‘Eastern bum’

#86 Brazil ex-pat on 01.15.16 at 7:57 pm

#65 tom black on 01.15.16 at 7:28 pm
I don’t want to sound like a doomer but I feel we never really had the crash and clear-out we should have had in 2008. Money printing since has found its way into the shadow banking system and has be funnelled into the stock market creating the illusion of prosperity and growth.

In a capitalist society banks should not be bailed out when they fail! that happened once already, who bails them out next time?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

We do not live in a capitalist society anymore. 90% of everyone in Brazil is corrupt. That is why when there are protests people come out by the millions. Yes millions. What will bring change? I don’t know but I can tell you this about Brazil, the people here are one catalyst away from burning down govt buildings they are so mad.

#87 common sense on 01.15.16 at 7:57 pm

#65 Tom Black

Nice post…

Yes, I too agree we have a long way to fall yet but what scares me with the world demographic picture the next 10 years, we are seemingly going no where growth wise. Basically the US demographic situation is less worse than anywhere else with the ability to house and feed a lot of immigrants based solely on their wise open, habitable spaces. Also big enough population size and with oil now, they look like the only decent country out there.

Buy gold and silver? I agree fully as a hedge. May not need it now but 2-3 years? Just maybe..better safe than sorry.

#88 For those about to flop... on 01.15.16 at 7:58 pm

#54 common sense on 01.15.16 at 7:19 pm
#8 Flopper

I got in late to the FX game, have made a few mistakes but have also been quite conservative taking profits once in a while, put in stop losses for protection and to date am very happy…if I was a bit more risky, I’d be VERY HAPPY. But still another 5-7% I’m guessing to go at least for gains…I highly doubt your going to get that rate of gain anywhere else for a while based on the world economy, etc…

Basically spread your risk over 10 or so contracts, buy and hold on, put in your stop losses for protection then enjoy the ride.

Thank you once again Smokey!

Good luck Flopper..it’s a calculated risk in your favour and only a few times in life, these type of opportunities come your way…

///////////////////////////
You mean your not gonna give me 1% because we are blog brothers?
I’m happy for you man but don’t get too over confident..
When you hit the euphoria stage I will be the little voice in your head and you will think” what would Flopper do?”
Take the money reinvest some and show your family some love.
Peace brother.

M41BC

#89 rawdiswar on 01.15.16 at 7:58 pm

I can see clearly now, amazing how a good enough hangover is for some clarity.

In 1974, PET stopped borrowing (interest free from the Bank of Canada. He turned to the private bankers and the bond market for this.

This killed sound monetary policy in this country for good, fulfilling the globalists agenda. Same as Nixon ending the gold standard for the US.

Rampant inflation followed in the early 80’s, or so my old man always tells me. Interest in the high teens, blah blah.

Since the mid-70’s, cars got shittier, music got worse and the debt hockey sticked.

http://qualicuminstitute.ca/federal-debt/

Fast forward to 1984, I mean 2016. Trudeau Jr offers legalized weed to the pilled up, fluoridated masses. They bite, but he knows full well the US War on Drugs and the UN won’t let him. No matter, mission accomplished by Butts et al.

Like George Jr. carried out his father’s work in the Middle East, so too will JT finish PET’s work of completely debasing Canada’s currency and relegating us to a Third World strip mine for The Machine.

Good bye Quality of Life, hello lower wages (in real terms).

The indoctrination is nearly complete, with McGuinty enforcing junior kindergarten as to ensure the minds are received fresh and moldable.

Once you purge your mind of all the useless shit they feed you, you can start to connect the dots.

#90 prairie person on 01.15.16 at 7:59 pm

Listening to the chatter on the board, I checked the chart on the Canadian dollar. The dollar has gone through two death crosses. I shoulda bin paying attention and bought US dollars on the first one. Too busy. Got to live. Wed bought a large amount of US dollars. Now, will the dollar drop to 59 cents. If so, it’ll be a nice profit. Doesn’t seem to be much risk given current circumstances. But I’ve learned to never say never. War between Iran and SA and oil could be back to a hundred dollars a barrel. The unexpected always happens.

#91 DON on 01.15.16 at 8:00 pm

#4 Ccptleu on 01.15.16 at 6:21 pm
I dont really understand how another rate cut can benefit the economy.. It will just tank the dollar even further….
******

One thing I read in the M$M is that a lower currency would benefit our commodity sector…you know the stuff the World isn’t buying at the moment.

The perfect storm is upon us.

Garth: Guy from work (intelligent – Gen X) turned to me and said…’since buying my house a two 18 months ago it has made $70K. Best investment I ever made’.

I said you should sell to realize the gains (his son is 19 and they bought a family house for just him and his wife. He replied, “no way imagine what it will be worth next year” I replied take at least invest the equity. Nope! – “why would I do that my house is making me money”.

To each their own. Self-interest can sometimes be your worst nightmare.

#92 Smartalox on 01.15.16 at 8:01 pm

Bill More-n’-owe: the perfect name for our times! Especially those Alberta oil companies that are losing money on every barrel they sell.

#93 Robert on 01.15.16 at 8:02 pm

All the talking heads looked very worried today as they attempted to suggest the market rout was simply a correction. Some were screaming buy dividend stocks while others sounded like Garth suggesting that diversification was the answer. Only two mentioned the possibility of a Bear Market or a Global Recession. It dawned on me as I watched the markets puking up another 400 points that these financial guru’s are no different than our Real Estate Agents who attempt to tell all of us that we better buy before we are priced out of the market. A friend of mine has his money invested with a local hedge fund who are known for their diversified portfolio’s. This is a fund that requires a minimum 500k investment. About two months ago he took me online to show me all the different stocks,etf’s and bonds he was invested in. Updated daily he can track the performance daily. I got a call today and my friend disclosed he was down 70k since January. Sorry Garth much like the realtors I believe our financial community needs to exercise self control and just call it the way it is. At least they should have the credibility of the Royal Bank of Scotland who recommended that their clients sell everything as they see a very rocky road ahead, just as they did in 2008.

The RBS analyst was trying to score headlines. He did. Nobody in the financial world takes it seriously. Nor should you. — Garth

#94 MSM-Free Zone on 01.15.16 at 8:02 pm

What was the name of that famous CIBC economist who was predicting $200/barrel oil?

Heard he ran off with Cerry Shooper and was never heard from again….

#95 DON on 01.15.16 at 8:03 pm

Fixing grammar in my last post

#69 DON on 01.15.16 at 8:00 pm
#4 Ccptleu on 01.15.16 at 6:21 pm
I dont really understand how another rate cut can benefit the economy.. It will just tank the dollar even further….
******

One thing I read in the M$M is that a lower currency would benefit our commodity sector…you know the stuff the World isn’t buying at the moment.

The perfect storm is upon us.

Garth: Guy from work (intelligent – Gen X) turned to me and said…’since buying my house 18 months ago it has made $70K. Best investment I ever made’.

I said you should sell to realize the gains (his son is 19 and they bought a family house for just him and his wife). He replied, “no way imagine what it will be worth next year”. I replied, at least invest the equity. Nope! – “why would I do that my house is making me money”.

To each their own. Self-interest can sometimes be your worst nightmare.

#96 Daisy Mae on 01.15.16 at 8:03 pm

#19: “….the price to fill up the Caddy went down yet again!”

*****************

In the City of West Kelowna, BC, it’s presently 99.9 cents.

#97 NOTHING SURPRISES on 01.15.16 at 8:05 pm

Garth:

Having held the position of Finance Minister within a Conservative federal government, what would be your plan of action you would pursue opposite to what the present Finance Minister is doing?

#98 Smoking Man on 01.15.16 at 8:07 pm

Johnny Cash on the ear buds , double fisting the other Johnny. Wife, an old mistress here, and Sherly Valentine on the way to Senica.

Shit, how do I get out of this one.

Johnny tell me what to do…

“What Do I Care”

When I’m all through if I haven’t been what they think I should be
If the total isn’t high enough when they figure me
When I grow old if there’s no gray from worry in my hair
What do I care? What do I care?

What do I care just as long as you were mine a little while?
When the road was long and weary you gave me a few good mile
What do I care if I miss a goal because I make a slip?
I’ll still be satisfied because I tasted your sweet lips

What do I care if I never have much money?
And sometimes my table looks a little bare
Anything that I may miss is made up for each time we kiss
You love me and I love you, so what do I care?

What do I care just as long as you were mine a little while?
When the road was long and weary you gave me a few good mile
What do I care if I miss a goal because I make a slip?
I’ll still be satisfied because I tasted your sweet lips

What do I care if I never have much money?
And sometimes my table looks a little bare
Anything that I may miss is made up for each time we kiss
You love me and I love you, so what do I care?

#99 Yuus bin Haad on 01.15.16 at 8:15 pm

That’s brilliant Garth! I was trying to come up with an Okefenokee name for Morneau – Po’ Bill it is. And here’s to all those Pablum-serving gummint critters from Walt: “Having lost sight of all our objectives, we redoubled our efforts.”

#100 45north on 01.15.16 at 8:16 pm

the feds have committed to a big whack of stimulus spending

the Canadian Federal Government has spent a lot of money to create Shared Services:

http://www.ssc-spc.gc.ca/index-eng.html

this is a whole new government department!

one of the big promises was that it would consolidate the email systems of every government department and make one new one that would save money. I doubted they would save a dime ( Canadian ). Well here’s a report that says the new system’s on life support:

The government’s effort to rollout a common email system to more than 320,000 federal government workers has encountered another major technical glitch, which could further delay the $400-million project.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/single-federal-email-system-delayed-amidst-continued-glitches

each government department used to have its own email system – Agriculture Canada included. It worked fine. The whole point of one big system was to justify bureaucratic promotion. Self promotion. This scandal was not Justin Trudeau’s fault but it was the fault of the senior mandarins.

they better do better

#101 Jfish on 01.15.16 at 8:21 pm

So tell me more about the great American economy. Walmart to close 269 store world wide 159 in the U.S. Stock market is crashing. National debt closing in on 19 trillion smackaroonies. Check the daily job cut website and see the real story of America.

The stock market is not crashing. 1987 was a crash, not this. As for Wal-Mart, it has 11,598 stores. Get a grip. — Garth

#102 Julie K. on 01.15.16 at 8:22 pm

#31 Linda ~ “Put on your big girl panties & deal with it…”

*****

Linda, Linda, Linda, you and me both know the big girls always go commando.

;)

#103 Keith in Calgary on 01.15.16 at 8:26 pm

Calgary’s condo market is going to implode on itself in the next 6-12 months……..here’s why IMHO………

1 – New builds are $120K-$180K and they are everywhere by the hundreds.

2 – The apartment rental market now has a 5% vacancy rate (and I bet you that’s a lie)……..real rents are down by 15-20% and the incentives such as one free month’s rent, free cable and internet for a year are staggering.

4- Anecdotally realtor’s report that 60% of listed condos are vacant, and that 80% or more are from people who used to work in the oil patch, but have now gone back home, or just need out.

All this means is a pending foreclosure crisis as Garth pointed out that 50% of people (not me) couldn’t handle their debts if the monthly servicing went up by $200…………and the amount of sudden and hopelessly screwed amateur landlords are out to lunch.

#104 Smoking Man on 01.15.16 at 8:28 pm

For Freedom First

https://youtu.be/lc3LUCu8-IU

Perhaps this will help you…

Link provided by the Great Yoda…

#105 Estrella on 01.15.16 at 8:30 pm

Hello dawgs, another wonder blog post Garth! Any guesses how much further oil will decline when iraq releases more into the market after their ban is lifted?

I wanted to share another quote from another blog (not as good a blog as Garth’s the omnipotent don’t worry, Garth is still the best!):

this is from http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/01/10/the-farce-awakens/

“If you cannot parse the difference between volatility and risk (which I define as the chance of a permanent capital loss), then at least accept the fact that risk is a given no matter what. But you have a choice: You can decide when to take the risk, today or in the future. Rational investors would prefer to take investment risk today, accumulating assets while coping with drawdowns and fluctuations in value. Only an insane person would choose to take their risk at the back end of their life – being short of money in old age when it is nearly impossible to earn more money.”

Keep the faith everyone. Hopefully we will find the cure for Cancer within the next 5 years. We all need our money to last longer. Keep the faith and have a good weekend :)

#106 nonplused on 01.15.16 at 8:30 pm

I may have been sleeping for that class but I thought if your dollar was crashing you raise rates to save it? So I also thought you cut rates if you wanted to lower your currency? With cauliflower at $6+ dollars for a bundle with no real nutritional value, I think we are already at the point where the dollar destruction has to stop. Why would any sane person buy cauliflower for $6 bucks when that amount of money would net 4 hamburgers?

#107 What to do now - Realties.ca on 01.15.16 at 8:33 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/15/what-to-do-now/ […]

#108 Nanaimo Bar on 01.15.16 at 8:41 pm

# 16 Bullard Dudley Yellen? For President

I’m confused…Dudley says the Fed is ready for negative rates if things get worse?
gosh, that would mean ‘one and done’….
——————————————————————-

When asked a question about policy tools, Dudley said, “Negative interest rates were a potential policy tool, but noted he was not seriously considering them.”

Where have we heard that before?

Dudley also said, “Once oil prices stabilize, headline inflation should return to the Federal Open Market Committee’s inflation target of 2 percent, although it may take longer than previously thought,”

Maybe he called the bottom on oil?

#109 Clearwater79 on 01.15.16 at 8:44 pm

Under 80cents for gasoline in calgary this morning. Im getting older but my oldest memories of gas are 60ish. When you are young you dont much notice.

I guess I could google a chart but im hoping someone will link me some cool site that has historical info about gas prices.

Some idiot said something about oil prices being where they should be. F that guy. Get a grip, the investment required for this stuff is crazy. What a tool.

@ roasted gonnads guy: I can understand your preference for revy vs golden but revy is in the middle of nowhere. Better snow but less good hill. Give your pros and cons please and thanks!

Also f that other guy again.

37M_bc/ab

#110 robert james on 01.15.16 at 8:46 pm

#68 46 and 2 According to this article it is costing oil sand producers 33 million dollars a day to produce at 30 dollar oil.. It does not make any sense to me to go on producing .. Nobody wants or needs the stuff at this point.. http://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/oil-at-30-would-cost-oilsands-producers-33m-a-day-analysts-say

#111 45north on 01.15.16 at 8:53 pm

I’m stupid: In 20 years in the construction industry, I’ve never seen a builder pay a bonus to any trade. Carpenters are getting as much as a $5 per square foot premium to build homes. The major builders are trying to get as many houses up as quickly as possible. I smell a rush to the exit.

that got my attention

will: Also Walmart announced they are going to close 256 stores worldwide. 154 are in the USA.

I wonder how many in Canada?

toronto1: the BoC and T2 are walking a tight rope here, their window for a soft landing in RE is deteriorating quickly.

the window is closing. If the Bank of Canada is willing to sacrifice the Canadian dollar, then it’s desperate.

AngryMan127: CAPITAL FLIGHT

I think capital flight is hugely significant. Trouble is as the Canadian dollar drops, Canada is seen as less and less attractive. Capital flight will be to the US.

MF: So why are we dropping rates then? Dropping rates last time just had the idiots go in debt more and make the ticking time bomb bigger.

Is this our only strategy? It feels like no one is flying the plane.

that got my attention. too

#112 Smoking Man on 01.15.16 at 8:56 pm

Dedicated to all my former teachers, except Mr Tennis my drama teacher. He was a beauty, would have killed myself back then if it wasn’t for him.

https://youtu.be/JRfuAukYTKg

#113 acdel on 01.15.16 at 9:00 pm

#73 Smoking Man
Johnny Cash on the ear buds , double fisting the other Johnny. Wife, an old mistress here, and Sherly Valentine on the way to Senica.

Shit, how do I get out of this one.

Johnny tell me what to do…

“What Do I Care”

When I’m all through if I haven’t been what they think I should be
If the total isn’t high enough when they figure me
When I grow old if there’s no gray from worry in my hair
What do I care? What do I care?

What do I care just as long as you were mine a little while?
When the road was long and weary you gave me a few good mile
What do I care if I miss a goal because I make a slip?
I’ll still be satisfied because I tasted your sweet lips

What do I care if I never have much money?
And sometimes my table looks a little bare
Anything that I may miss is made up for each time we kiss
You love me and I love you, so what do I care?

What do I care just as long as you were mine a little while?
When the road was long and weary you gave me a few good mile
What do I care if I miss a goal because I make a slip?
I’ll still be satisfied because I tasted your sweet lips

What do I care if I never have much money?
And sometimes my table looks a little bare
Anything that I may miss is made up for each time we kiss
You love me and I love you, so what do I care
______________________________________________

Brilliant; must be the home made wine but I cannot stop laughing; right up there with the acid trip!

#114 Clearwater79 on 01.15.16 at 9:01 pm

@ SM great link, I do that skit for icebreakers when no women around. Good stuff.

@ keith in calgary. You in house building. Can you break down building costs for new houses and also those 600k teardowns they build big boxes on thr sell/try to sell for 2 mill? If anyone else can provide insite that would be great. OK then.

M37_bc/ab

#115 common sense on 01.15.16 at 9:03 pm

#104 Smoking Man

Brilliant video. I haven’t laughed that hard in weeks.

A must see for anyone.

#116 Bob Rice on 01.15.16 at 9:04 pm

I teach high school kids… I wouldn’t be as optimistic as some. “Educated workforce”? Perhaps if you compile the number of university degrees… but a whole lot of those degrees are useless BAs. What I see is a lot of lazy, uninspired youth with very little regard for what it takes to get by in life… I’m talking about basic life skills.. I tell my students that we are living throughout eh decline of Western Civ.

#117 Nanaimo Bar on 01.15.16 at 9:06 pm

# 72 Estrella

Hello dawgs, another wonder blog post Garth! Any guesses how much further oil will decline when iraq releases more into the market after their ban is lifted?

—————————————————————————————
Iran is the ban lift, not Iraq.

I have been following this one all week and it has been real getting strange by the day.

First, a U.S. Boat was seized by Iran. Now Kerry is flying over to Vienna to discuss steady progress. This was supposed to be a done deal.

Kerry, Zarif and EU foreign policy chief Federica ?Mogherini will gather in Vienna, the home of the U.N. atomic watchdog, to discuss the “steady progress” that has been made toward implementing last July’s landmark agreement in which Iran agreed to curb its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions that have crippled its economy.

Is it possible that the U.S. is concerned about the strong US dollar going forward. Nobody wants a strong dollar. The question is, is the USD following oil or is oil following the USD?

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-waiting-iaea-verify-iran-nuke-compliance-36314167

#118 common sense on 01.15.16 at 9:06 pm

#102 Julie K.

Hey now!

#119 IRent on 01.15.16 at 9:10 pm

Hi fellows – what tool would you advise to see if my portfolio is balanced, besides the trading platform. Also it will be great if there is some built-in intelligence or advisor

#120 Smoking Man on 01.15.16 at 9:19 pm

#116 Bob Rice on 01.15.16 at 9:04 pm
I teach high school kids… I wouldn’t be as optimistic as some. “Educated workforce”? Perhaps if you compile the number of university degrees… but a whole lot of those degrees are useless BAs. What I see is a lot of lazy, uninspired youth with very little regard for what it takes to get by in life… I’m talking about basic life skills.. I tell my students that we are living throughout eh decline of Western Civ.
..

Then do something about it, our future depends on rebal teachers.

#121 Jimmy on 01.15.16 at 9:19 pm

“The Selfish Giant” on Netflix features a young Smoking Man entrepreneur.

#122 Russ on 01.15.16 at 9:22 pm

The dog’s name is “Just”.

She might come to “Justy” and may be known as “Justin”. Thanks for the large opening Garth, no need to explain, I got it!

#123 kamilapea on 01.15.16 at 9:22 pm

Burn dollar, burn! The lower it goes the more I chuckle at the local ruffian who has been taking a correspondence fire fighting course from some Texas outfit and soon has to travel to the Lone Star State to prove his learning.

#124 bdy sktrn on 01.15.16 at 9:23 pm

is the dog’s name peanut?

#125 common sense on 01.15.16 at 9:24 pm

#68 Brazil Ex-Pat

Got to love Brazilians….

Passionate and speak up when they are shat upon, unlike some other lemmings in countries like ours.

I remember in Uni, seeing a train station in Brazil burned to the ground (don’t know if it helped) for the daily train being constantly late. I bet your fellow countrymen have no pent up rage issues and few phychaitrists….

Wonder how the Olympics will go down this summer?

#126 common sense on 01.15.16 at 9:32 pm

#116 Bob Rice

You sound like the typical teacher role model.

Why not quit and do something more rewarding or is it a case of you’d rather teach as you do not know?

Better to keep your trap shut and let us assume your an ass than print I and confirm it.

Please let us know where you teach. Please.

My daughter had a teacher with this attitude and she caught her in a lie…catholic “religious” school and all. (yes, the ex). They didn’t like it when I said, “That’s great…a 35 year old teacher out witted by a 11 yr old and then has the audacity to try and debase the child for the adult’s actions…”

I told my daughter, the teacher did her a favour and confirmed to her not to trust anyone just because they are in an authority position…

#127 Smoking Man on 01.15.16 at 9:36 pm

DELETED

#128 WUL on 01.15.16 at 9:37 pm

In 4 and 1/2 hours (midnight Fort McMurray time) I am going to step outside into the forecast -37 degree Celsius wind chill and look upward to observe the dazzling colourful display of the Chemtrail Borealis.

Then I will retire in peace, knowing that our elected officials will save us from rack and ruin.

#129 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.15.16 at 9:37 pm

11,598 Walmart stores world wide.
None in Germany.
God’s country.

#130 GeniusMoney on 01.15.16 at 9:42 pm

Hey Garth,
How’s that diversified portfolio of yours looking now? Diversification in stocks and bonds doesn’t work when the the problem is not sector specific, but rather across all sectors (energy, commodities, tech, etc). Combine that with a globalized financial system where all the emerging markets and even G7 countries are going down the toilet.

You know what the real diversification is from a stock/bond/currency/real-estate global market crash?

1. US Treasuries – Not because they’re sound, but because they’re the last paper safe haven when everything else is going down in flames, including other bond assets.

2. Gold – Guess what’s not crashing along side the stock & currency markets in the past few weeks? Also it’s purchased and sold in USD, so it’s like a double hedge against Canadian currency.

3. Silver – It’s got a pretty solid bottom now, it’s 50% considered a currency around the world (the other 50% as a commodity) and will see 2-4x the rise of gold, shortly after all hell breaks loose.

4. Bitcoin – Because Gold is heavily manipulated by central banks, and it has one hell of a speculative upside. Avg 5000% per year for several years in a row anyone?

5. Ethereum – Because Bitcoin is so 2009. Enter “blockchain” 2.0 technology. The Internet Of Things will at least in part use it (50 billion+ devices by 2020), the Fintech industry is claiming that 2016 will be the year of “blockchain”, and because Smart Contracts are the way in the future… as much as realtors & lawyers will be running scared of the idea. Ethers are only $1.20 a pop right now. I predict in 2 years they’ll be $25-$50 range.

#131 Nanaimo Bar on 01.15.16 at 9:46 pm

Now the lifting of the Iran oil sanction ban is getting stranger by the hour. Published at 4:20pm today. Wtf?

The White House said today that it’s not yet ready to suspend U.S. economic sanctions against Iran because its compliance with the nuclear deal had not been verified.

http://abc27.com/2016/01/15/kerry-to-meet-with-iranian-foreign-minister-on-nuclear-deal/

#132 acdel on 01.15.16 at 9:48 pm

#120 Smoking Man
#116 Bob Rice on 01.15.16 at 9:04 pm
I teach high school kids… I wouldn’t be as optimistic as some. “Educated workforce”? Perhaps if you compile the number of university degrees… but a whole lot of those degrees are useless BAs. What I see is a lot of lazy, uninspired youth with very little regard for what it takes to get by in life… I’m talking about basic life skills.. I tell my students that we are living throughout eh decline of Western Civ.
..

Then do something about it, our future depends on rebal teachers.
______________________________________________

Disagree, most teachers today are unfortunately stuck in a paradigm of fear. Be outspoken, go against the grain and you are turfed. Those with families are stuck in the same paradigm and are too afraid to rock the boat; if outspoken they are turfed anyways. I read a story today that somewhere in the States an educator can no longer say I am sorry, like what the F***! I am not sure if there are any brave one’s any longer. It is up to the students to make a stand as we did in our days through parenting, the hell with the doctored teaching system that is based on fear, think for yourself kids, challenge them and go for it! Look up to the one’s that created as opposed to the one’s that followed!

#133 For those about to flop... on 01.15.16 at 9:50 pm

#119 IRent on 01.15.16 at 9:10 pm
Hi fellows – what tool would you advise to see if my portfolio is balanced, besides the trading platform. Also it will be great if there is some built-in intelligence or advisor

///////////////////////////////
At first I was thinking to get the Metrosexual Messiah(TM)to oversee your portfolio ,because he is a tool.
Alas ,you then asked for something with built-in intelligence so I am at a loss…

M41BC

#134 Russ on 01.15.16 at 9:50 pm

#124 bdy sktrn on 01.15.16 at 9:23 pm

is the dog’s name peanut?
=======================

Okay, I’ll spell it.

Just,

as in, “What to do now?”

Keep cash on hand, Just in case.

Groan. That kinda hurt, didn’t it?

R

#135 bubu on 01.15.16 at 9:57 pm

Is Alberta becoming like Montana? Ft. McMurray or Edmonton will be the new Windsor after the crash in the auto sector? According to some it ‘s possible:

“Originally Posted by moahunter View Post

^I think the doomsday scenario right now, isn’t that petroleum is going away, or that oil prices won’t come back. Its that, nobody is going to pump billions into extraction here, versus shale / fracking in the US, when it does recover. Without those billions and that growth, much of our industry and our population, simply isn’t needed, we will just extract from the projects we already have. Its interesting, sometimes I read, oh, but our largest industry is construction, not oil and gas. But construction wouldn’t exist to large extent in this part of the world, without oil and gas. Just compare the construction industry in Montana, a place without oil and gas, to Alberta, a place with it. Last time they had a boom, was when the missile bases were being built, I don’t think Ottawa is planning nuclear missile bases for us ahead of, say, transit in Quebec. Its the same with much of the rest of our other industries. Finance and banking, relies on oil and gas. Retail, relies on the big salaries from oil and gas. Government jobs, rely on the big tax revenues from oil and gas. That’s the concern, we had a new technology to extract oil and gas in the last 30 years, and we had a competitive business environment. Now, there are alternative technologies available in places that have more stable and competitive business environments, that are closer to market south of us, and without the same supply issues / costs.”

http://www.connect2edmonton.ca/forum/showthread.php?t=38146

#136 Smoking Man on 01.15.16 at 9:59 pm

Oh man, good night….

Pucke trigger been absent for 10 years…

Its back

#137 Herf on 01.15.16 at 10:03 pm

#51 MF

“So why are we dropping rates then? Dropping rates last time just had the idiots go in debt more and make the ticking time bomb bigger.

Is this our only strategy? It feels like no one is flying the plane.”

CFIT – Controlled Flight Into Terrain

#138 Herf on 01.15.16 at 10:22 pm

#71 BS

“Could this government be anymore clueless?”

I believe they could. Just wait; their mandate is still young.

#139 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.15.16 at 10:24 pm

@#109 Clearwater 79
“Under 80cents for gasoline in calgary this morning. Im getting older but my oldest memories of gas are 60ish. When you are young you dont much notice…”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The cheapest I remember gas was in Calgary in 1980 at a “one off” gas station. Penguin Gas. They had a huge concrete Penguin outside the station. Tacky but at $0.16/litre……..who cared.

#140 Freeman on 01.15.16 at 10:25 pm

Holy Crap ! The world economy is DEAD !
I’m not kidding, it’s dead !

Watch this video, it talks about how there is NO SHIPS operating between North America and Europe right now, the first time in history (outside of war that is). If this is true then the world’s economy really is dead, and you better sell your house NOW before Canadians realize how dead it is. :

“The U.S. & Global Economy Is Dead In The Water”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmCt6nT1GSQ

You watch that crap? Then come here to spread the germs? — Garth

#141 Smoking Man on 01.15.16 at 10:30 pm

Senica is that you Sherly Valentine

http://dyslexicsmokingman.blogspot.ca

#142 LL on 01.15.16 at 10:32 pm

I am baccckkkk Garth! :)

Came back from Los Cabos (nice weather!) and interest rate there is 6.5% and most of the time the transaction has to be done in cash.
(No local mortgage companies down there.)

You are never a real owner but you have same rights as Mexican (the deed is in Fideocomis by the bank).

I saw a lot of adds saying “Price reduce” and “owner financing”)…market look slow.

Canadian stock is on the downhill -23% since September!
How can we do 7% in a market like that?

If you convert CD in US your money is not guarantee by the government agency (FD…something).

Not easy to do $$$ by these days!

By for now…I am having a lot to read from your blog (last week).

#143 Ret on 01.15.16 at 10:40 pm

#116
Entitled parents = entitled children. Who would have thought?

The general teenage belief is that unless it comes through some ear buds or a cell phone, both allowed in most grade 7-12 classrooms, it really can’t be very important, so why bother?

Kids take in the 5-8 minute lesson, zone out with their technology toys then pretend to be doing some of the assignment for the rest of the period. They all get 80% and go to university anyway so what’s the problem?

#144 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 01.15.16 at 10:42 pm

#109 Clearwater79 on 01.15.16 at 8:44 pm

Under 80cents for gasoline in calgary this morning. Im getting older but my oldest memories of gas are 60ish. When you are young you dont much notice.

I guess I could google a chart but im hoping someone will link me some cool site that has historical info about gas prices.

Some idiot said something about oil prices being where they should be. F that guy. Get a grip, the investment required for this stuff is crazy. What a tool.

@ roasted gonnads guy: I can understand your preference for revy vs golden but revy is in the middle of nowhere. Better snow but less good hill. Give your pros and cons please and thanks!

Also f that other guy again.

37M_bc/ab

When there’s a big dump Revy is incredible.. Drive out from cowtown… never think of stopping at Kicking… got to beat the Roger’s pass shutdown!

But Kicking Horse is amazing too.. often stop on the way back.

For living, Revy seems a bit funkier.. and it’s a bit bigger.. closer to Okanogan for summer.

But Golden is under 3 hrs from cowtown.

I love the whole interior of BC but I agree that once in Revy it would seem more isolated for sure..

The whole area is pretty special.. though not a lot of people!

#145 TRT on 01.15.16 at 10:45 pm

Of course the chartered banks won’t pass the rate cut savings on to consumers. Who did you think ran this country?

Also, the hate for the NDP by corporations and bankers imply that they may be a good thing for the ‘people’.

Good the 99% voted for the NDP in Alberta. Time to tax the 1% much more and not be afraid of the fear mongering. I would institute a 2% tax on assets over $5 million annually including your house. Wealth tax.

Anyone want to leave the country or take their money out, then ban them from entering Canada ever again.

#146 prairie person on 01.15.16 at 10:59 pm

The dry baltic index tracks ships with cargo, I believe. it is not zero. It is, however, low. It may be around 450 at the moment. It’s easy enough to check. Everything is available on the internet.

#147 prairie person on 01.15.16 at 11:10 pm

From the horses mouth to your ear.
On 15 January 2016 the Baltic Dry Index reached the historic low of 373.[22
Since the shipment of ore, coal, etc., all the things that are used in production of goods, this is considered significant. The BDI is one of the figures that can’t be fudged. You don’t contract for a freighter unless you’ve got a cargo and you don’t send a cargo unless you’ve got a buyer. The BDI gives an indication of demand and the slowing down or speeding up of production. Certainly the number being at an historic low is worth keeping an eye on. If someone is interested enough, you can see what parts of the index are down the most and where. However, the BDI is not zero and I wouldn’t extrapolate from the basic number.

#148 Brazil ex-pat on 01.15.16 at 11:11 pm

#125 common sense on 01.15.16 at 9:24 pm
#68 Brazil Ex-Pat

Got to love Brazilians….

Passionate and speak up when they are shat upon, unlike some other lemmings in countries like ours.

I remember in Uni, seeing a train station in Brazil burned to the ground (don’t know if it helped) for the daily train being constantly late. I bet your fellow countrymen have no pent up rage issues and few phychaitrists….

Wonder how the Olympics will go down this summer?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I’m not Brazilian. I’m a Canadian working here full time with no desire to go back to the frozen super taxed country I was born. Yes parts of Brazil are un-safe. But the food is awesome, the weather is warm and the women are beautiful. So no thank you frozen, over weight, over taxed, fast food Canada :-)

The Olympics will be a disaster in my opinion. They are not even close to being ready.

#149 kommykim on 01.15.16 at 11:17 pm

RE:

#60 Peppy sue on 01.15.16 at 7:22 pm
For those of us who currently don’t hold any, Preferreds are looking like too much of a bargain to pass up.

Actually it is a hard lesson for those who thought that they could substitute Preferreds for bonds in a balanced portfolio.

#150 Leo Trollstoy on 01.15.16 at 11:17 pm

smokey’s comments are worth $15m. rest of yall need to pay me to read your crap.

#151 Prairieboy43 on 01.15.16 at 11:18 pm

Fuel prices will be more $$$, starting May- Sept. Shell Canada Refinery and Upgrader will have Turnarounds (maintenance), this spring/summer. 8 weeks each.

#152 Ontario's Left Coast on 01.15.16 at 11:24 pm

Well, that was a fun week… Lost a fair little whack in my b&d non-registered portfolio (I rarely look at the R stuff). Oddly enough, I’m just about ready to pull some bucks out of my orange guy account and top things up. This has been quite a rout but the avalanche of negative sentiment is telling me we might be getting somewhere closer to the capitulation stage.

Anyway, let’s forget this trainwreck and try to have a weekend! Cheers to Garth and all the Dawgs.

M48ON

#153 Serge Nevsky on 01.15.16 at 11:26 pm

I have a bunch of Maple Stocks that are still doing just fine, paying dividends on time, no news to panic about there. Several stocks have gone up and balanced out the losses of my energy holdings, a wash.

My overall portfolio inc energy is down 7%, news there, but nothing to panic over. I am daily following the RSI of the Maple Crew and have decided that instead of diverting cash to overpriced US stocks I am better off to wait for the RSI to turn up, perhaps as far away as next year and catch a helluva bounce given the historic lows in the standard deviation we’re seeing now.

The Canadian dollar losses are another matter. I was at a currency exchange yesterday in Bangkok and the Loon is trading at a 40% discount YTD to the Thai Baht.

The UK Pound is now 110% higher than the Loon, meaning it takes $2.10 to buy a pound with a C$ Peso. That’s a 60% tumble against the Pound.

The USD is 39 Baht vs C$ 24, a 60% drop from par.

The EU also trades 60% higher than the C$.

Canadians are forced out of The UK, US, EU as travel destinations. Asia is quickly pricing them out, cost’s are getting too high for them. Business is booming in Thailand. 32 million visitors last year alone. Wages are high, the middle class is booming, millions have bought dream homes in suburbs around Bangkok. There are more shopping malls in BKK than in all of Canada, and they’ve more modern and stocked with international juice.

Where in Canada can you buy Rolls Royce, Maserati and Lamboughini in shopping mall? All the biggest and most expensive international brands fill the corridors. The malls themselves are massive and contain giant entertainment complexes with global franchises extant.

Toronto seems like a village in the boonies by comparison. For Canada to ballyhoo about being back, while more people are starving than in a third world country like Thailand makes me wonder how a cheerleader like Trudeau can keep a straight face.

And Trudeau throws a party in Toronto? We’re so screwed. BTW…we dumped Canada for work here.And in Thai Baht we earn more than we could in Canada, and get a raise every time the C$ flops lower. Imagine, a job in Thailand pays more than in Canada. So far this year it’s meant an extra grand a month if I were to convert to $C.

It’s a sign that a generation of Canadian workers and new grads have nothing but misery to look forward to while the Liberal Party works towards creating another generation of poor dependent on the government for a crust of bread. .

Oh, and the income tax is only 15% here. So go ahead, support a government who’s obvious intention it is to starve you out, see where that gets you. Did I mention that the sunshines every day here,moan.

#154 Gulf breeze on 01.15.16 at 11:38 pm

The decline in the dollar has everything to do with crashing oil prices and nothing to do with the current govt.

The death spiral began under the conservatives, not the liberals or T2. Neither party is responsible for that. The over reliance on oil, though, can be squarely laid at the feet of Harper. However, as it is now a clear fact, a weaker dollar

And what was Morneaux supposed to say, Garth? And what would you have said or done differently?

Any govt that currently raises interest rates and cuts income tax in this country would be crucified — and rightly so. Lowering the tfsa limit, which reduces tax dollars coming in, at the moment we need them the most, for social programs, was the right thing to do, fiscally and morally. It’s highly stimulative, will help lay infrastructure for the new and maintain the old.

Your apparently personal dislike of Justin Trudeau is curious.

Lib supporters justified gutting the TFSA limit because the shelter was not being maxed by 93% of account-holders. Now you justify the move by saying it will divert enough money from TFSAs to fund social programs and infrastructure in a ‘highly stimulative’ way. Suck. Blow. Pick one. — Garth

#155 S.Bby on 01.15.16 at 11:38 pm

#78 MSM

Any bets on how long before the Lambo dealership on Heritage Drive closes its doors?

http://www.lamborghinicalgary.com/

===================================
I Notice that the backgrounds of where the used cars are located is Vancouver.
Vancouver is the exotic car capital of North America. Hmm, I wonder who could be buying all those sports cars?

http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/2016/01/10/were-the-exotic-car-capital-of-north-america

#156 Ronaldo on 01.15.16 at 11:44 pm

#104 Smoking Man on 01.15.16 at 8:28 pm
For Freedom First

https://youtu.be/lc3LUCu8-IU

”Perhaps this will help you…

Link provided by the Great Yoda…”
——————————————————–

That was way too funny. Thanks for the laugh.

#157 WUL on 01.15.16 at 11:52 pm

SMOKING MAN:

From Fort Mac, I hope that you, as a brilliant, concussed, former Junior hardrock, goon, blueliner keep it coming. Thanks for the shoutouts and support for the rock solid workers out here in the oil sands. We need your support.

You are a gift.

Check out Haggard’s “Big City”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbCYJZnxIFk

Someday I will meet you on the patio in the smoking area and we can have a couple of jets together.

#158 Shirley Valentine on 01.15.16 at 11:52 pm

Close…
That’s one very skilled competitor!! Limbering up for the kill, legs til infinity.

I hope it’s not one of the 1000’s of rentals chasing you…

One thing wrong though… both my legs would be wrapped around the smokey alien beast dans la petite mort….

#141 Smoking Man on 01.15.16 at 10:30 pm

Senica is that you Sherly Valentine

http://dyslexicsmokingman.blogspot.ca

#159 Jason Sensation on 01.16.16 at 12:06 am

First time writer but long time reader…The price of oil is nearing the cost of a case of beer in Ontario when factoring in the exchange rate. I sure wish there would be a meltdown in the price of beer but we all know that price is fixed by the nanny state.

I work for a discount brokerage in the risk side and I can tell you that the margin calls and market sentiment hasn’t been this bad since I started my career in 2009.

This coming week with US holiday on Monday is setting up for another brutal week in the market. On the bright side, I look forward to fully investing into a diversified portfolio and selling my house before the line people at the payday advance stores realize that their house isn’t worth slaving for.

#160 American recession on 01.16.16 at 12:11 am

Garth, I can’t believe you don’t see a recession coming in America. As peter shift says, most people think the jobs numbers are great, but that is a lagging indicator. All data points in America are negative. You lose credibility when you don’t accept what is so obvious and ridicule the millennials for drinking the kool aid of the re machine. All asset classes are a bubble and that includes the equity markets. The crisis that is coming will be make 2008 look like a walk on the park.

#161 prairiegopher on 01.16.16 at 12:21 am

Let me do a recap, our finance minister stares into the camera like a deer looking into a headlight, our prime minister is off posing for vogue and out here in Albertastan our premier is trying to save the planet while everyone could care less. If you don’t think we are screwed then let me be the first to tell you..WE ARE SCREWED!! Sunny ways my friends, sunny ways.

#162 The American on 01.16.16 at 12:31 am

At #101: Jfish, Wal-Mart is closing 269 stores, 154 in the U.S. This is a friggin’ rounding error. But wait… It gets better. Wan-Mart announced in 2014 their push to “go smaller” with respect to the store sizes, including a new concept of smaller stores. They’re OPENING their new concept across the country, to the tune of 150 stores in “test” mode. The more I hear from Canadians, the more I realize the CBC operates a lot like Fox “News.” It reports only half the truth so it can push its agenda. Hilarious actually. And stupid too. Have you ever heard of this little phenomenon called “Amazon.com,” headquartered in Seattle? It has taken a massive chunk out of Walmart’s “higher end” customer base. Walmart is responding.

“Walmart’s fresh push into neighborhoods with smaller, more convenient stores is an overt ploy to win the quickie shopper’s business. The world’s largest retailer wants shoppers to think of Walmart not just for ‘stock-up trips’ at supercenters but ‘fill-in trips’ in neighborhood locations as well,” Bill Simon, Walmart U.S. president and CEO, said in a press release announcing accelerated growth plans for its smaller stores. “Customers’ needs and expectations are changing. They want to shop when they want and how they want, and we are transforming our business to meet their expectations,” he said. “Customers appreciate the broad assortment of our supercenters for their stock-up trips as well as our small store formats for fill-in trips.”

#163 pwn3d on 01.16.16 at 1:08 am

#22 I’m stupid on 01.15.16 at 6:37 pm
In 20 years in the construction industry, I’ve never seen a builder pay a bonus to any trade. Carpenters are getting as much as a $5 per square foot premium to build homes. The major builders are trying to get as many houses up as quickly as possible. I smell a rush to the exit.
—————–
Apt handle if you think that builders are rushing to complete homes they’ve already sold. The builder I know is very busy right now and is behind schedule because their trades are so busy. It could be they need to offer a premium to get some extra crews to help out.

#164 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.16.16 at 1:29 am

JT has been on the job just a few months.
And he’s already on an extensive tax payer funded holiday.
What the ………

#165 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.16.16 at 1:31 am

The Dollar note in the previous post is obviously a fake.
The real one has the Queen wearing a sombrero.

#166 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.16.16 at 1:40 am

The RE in Ditchmond (formerly known as Richmond) is really going bonkas.
So much, that some of our house owning friends are seriously thinking of cashing out, fearing to miss the top.

#167 Tony on 01.16.16 at 2:03 am

Re: #159 Jason Sensation on 01.16.16 at 12:06 am

Houses seem to be only selling at the lower end of the market. This is not a good sign if you’re a home owner.

#168 A box in the Sky on 01.16.16 at 2:22 am

#83 The Wynne Factor on 01.15.16 at 7:55 pm

My own estimate is that Ontario would be running about 5 to 6% growth if Wynne hadn’t crapped all over the province with her cringeworthy and costly initiatives.

—————————

I’m going to be blunt – you’re a fng moron.

Look, I’m not a fan of Wynne and I think she has no economic leadership skills.

But to say that Ontario would be growing 5-6% with a different Premier, how fng stupid are you?

1st world economies don’t grow at 5-6% even when they’re inside of a tech bubble and have a demographic boom.

4% growth is amazing and not really sustainable … and you’re saying we swap politicians and get 6%? You’re fng stupid.

#169 March will be worse... on 01.16.16 at 2:32 am

Garth, with all that you have said about the economy in the last few blogs, I cannot believe that you think March may be better for stocks. The majority of comments are doom and gloom for the exception of the odd die hard optimist, the latter a good thing.

The market is part emotion (and from this blog of investors, the comments are overwhelmingly negative) and the remaining part is the economy, where for the last few months there has been NO good news worthy of an economic turnaround.

March will be worse.

Continue to give us excellent advice on how to invest in a recession…and this one looks like it will be a deep one.

As for the AB optimists, think it thru, if last year you had 40,000 oil industry layoffs when the oil selling price was above the oil production price, what do you think will happen this year when the reverse is true?

More layoffs, many more.

People will sell to get out of their mortgages that they can no longer pay as they have no job. If it is true about new Calgary condo prices are substantially below existing RE list prices, what do you think will happen to the price of RE in Calgary?

RE prices will drop.

As for YVR/416 capital flight recipient hopefuls, it is true China is experiencing huge capital flight at the moment – but would you invest in a country with a devaluing currency, a crashing stock market and a recession looming?

Unlikely.

The idea is to invest your money where you can reasonably expect greater gains than in China – Canada at the moment is not that place, the US is and that is where their money will go.

#170 West Coast on 01.16.16 at 3:03 am

http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2016/01/15/canada-is-only-a-big-caribbean-country-china-expert/

fear not – apparently we are now ‘just like the Caribbean’ – does that mean our weather will improve??’

#171 Frank on 01.16.16 at 3:06 am

Garth, I can’t believe you don’t see a recession coming in America.

You need 6 months of negative GDP growth first chief, not a couple bad weeks on the stock market.

That said, Garth was slow to admit to a recession in Canada in 2015 (remember, it was just a “technical recession”) so if….IF the US slides into a recession (it would require quite an about face from today) I wouldn’t count on seeing early acknowledgement of it here.

First time writer but long time reader…The price of oil is nearing the cost of a case of beer in Ontario when factoring in the exchange rate.

Does that say more about oil or the price of beer?

New chick at the gym today. New Years resolution type. I like the new company, especially if they’re easy on the eyes. She’s a mortgage broker. Mentioned that this last week (in Vancouver) was busier than your average month. I suspect the last minute rush before Feb 15th is real, as per Garth’s suggestion. Is it everyone rushing to get in before the fall or just another milestone on the road to newer highs every month? Who knows.

#172 BS on 01.16.16 at 3:43 am

Gulf breeze on 01.15.16 at 11:38 pm

Lowering the tfsa limit, which reduces tax dollars coming in, at the moment we need them the most, for social programs, was the right thing to do, fiscally and morally. It’s highly stimulative, will help lay infrastructure for the new and maintain the old.

Highly stimulative? LOL. Cutting the TSFA will just divert more money into RRSPs which give instant tax relief and then shelter the gains. This will reduce tax revenue short term. The TSFA does almost nothing to tax revenue in the short term.

Tax revenues will be lower under the T2 government. No question about it.

#173 JWD on 01.16.16 at 3:52 am

Smoking Man #104

Wasn’t aware of the crazy/hot matrix at the time, but i found a unicorn and married her. Still hot but unfortunately the fact that they can instantly show up anywhere on the graph is true. She’s now an 8 crazy. God I hope she goes back below the 5 crazy. It’s been a long year.

#174 Freedom First on 01.16.16 at 6:11 am

#104 Smoking Man

Good video. But as the man says it is for young men.

The basis is there, but I would elaborate on everything in much greater detail as the men of today have been so brainwashed by our submissive feminist society that crazy female behaviour has become invisible to them and is the new norm. To anyone who can still think for themselves, and tries to correct this epidemic of crazy, well, that is simply not PC, and you are therefore a misogynist. Women are to be worshiped and incapable of any wrongdoing.

However, man bashing in as and sitcoms is now totally acceptable, and is also the new normal.

Nothing is said by most men either, as the women have their balls in their purses.

#175 Ronaldo on 01.16.16 at 6:21 am

#154 Gulf Breeze

”Lowering the tfsa limit, which reduces tax dollars coming in, at the moment we need them the most, for social programs, was the right thing to do, fiscally and morally.”

Are you serious? TFSA’s are funded with after tax dollars. TFSA’s actually saved the gov tax because those who could not invest in both TFSA and RSP would have invested in TFSA’s. Now, the opposite will be the case and that will result in a tax refund for those individuals. The TFSA was designed to eliminate the inequities created by RSPs to lower income individuals. Those are the people who will be hurt by this move going forward.

https://www.cdhowe.org/pdf/backgrounder_65.pdf

#176 Realtor #1 on 01.16.16 at 7:03 am

Two years ago you guys were convinced of higher rates especially when the US started raising rates, bond market this and that….

So once again we are about “two years” away from higher rates. Sooo. 2018?? Huh?

#177 Hope & Change (Canada) on 01.16.16 at 7:09 am

#154 Gulf breeze on 01.15.16 at 11:38 Any govt that currently raises interest rates and cuts income tax in this country would be crucified — and rightly so.

Average Canadian family pays 43.5% in taxes (as of 2014) . You’d think that would be enough not to have bridges crumble as you drive over them. (Apparently not)

You think people want to pay more taxes, not less?

People voted for JT whose major campaign promise was a middle class TAX CUT. Effectively voting a tax cut for themselves and a tax rise for everyone that is not them.

#178 Hope & Change (Canada) on 01.16.16 at 7:30 am

@#109 Clearwater 79
“Under 80cents for gasoline in calgary this morning. Im getting older but my oldest memories of gas are 60ish. When you are young you dont much notice…”

Must be the Canadian advantage.

It was 1.35 / **GALLON** in Oklahoma, as reported by a friend on Facebook. That would be .35$/litre US$ or .50$ C$

Apparently, we don’t pay enough taxes in Canada to maintain and build up our infrastructure. And also, too many 1%ers hiding their money from the taxman and his 50%+ marginal rates.

Yeah, that’s right. Evil 1%ers are doing this to us.

#179 Hope & Change (Canada) on 01.16.16 at 7:41 am

#149 kommykim on 01.15.16 at 11:17 pm
RE:
#60 Peppy sue on 01.15.16 at 7:22 pm
For those of us who currently don’t hold any, Preferreds are looking like too much of a bargain to pass up.
Actually it is a hard lesson for those who thought that they could substitute Preferreds for bonds in a balanced portfolio.

Last time this correlation between bonds & preferred broke down in a big way was 2008. The recovery was just fantastic though.

An image is worth a thousand words.

téléchargement de photos

#180 Hope & Change (Canada) on 01.16.16 at 7:41 am

XBB/CPD Image here

http://postimg.org/image/newhz4lyb/

#181 Sean on 01.16.16 at 8:08 am

OK Garth, here’s a future pic for the blog header.. just to beat this cauliflower thing to death.. lol.

https://scontent-mia1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/12552562_1111295838903188_5620542289155556283_n.png?oh=d4cbdb8c319c2436957aae7374880bea&oe=573C80AD

#182 Sir Garth's creative mind on 01.16.16 at 8:16 am

#154 Gulf breeze

Suck. Blow. Pick one. — Garth

priceless

#183 Bottoms_Up on 01.16.16 at 8:33 am

#285 Tri-Guy on 01.15.16 at 12:30 pm
———————————
Well it sounds like you live in a nice house. Do you need the equity? With a 400k mortgage on a 900k house, it sounds like you don’t need to worry about a housing melt. Even if it went back down to 600k you still have decent equity. You have to live somewhere…and selling and moving comes with costs. Without more detail, i would be tempted to stay put. I would also take a 200k line of credit against the house and invest it with Garth. You get to write interest off against your salaries, and your money would be in good hands.

#184 exodice on 01.16.16 at 8:53 am

Garth

Aren’t all of the people who have made a CAD$ profit on RE essentially trapped in Canuckistan, as their global purchasing power has been wiped out everywhere ….except for a few mosquito infested banana republics….

#185 Danforth on 01.16.16 at 9:18 am

More cauliflower news!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/the-once-ignored-cauliflower-is-now-as-popular-as-j-law–and-its-799-a-head/2016/01/15/5ef7e846-b867-11e5-99f3-184bc379b12d_story.html

#186 Kuato Lives on 01.16.16 at 9:19 am

“It’s ironic his son may be in power when the dollar hits the lowest value ever, if it sheds another six cents.”

Only if you’re Alanis Morissette.

#187 waiting on the westcoast on 01.16.16 at 9:26 am

Freedom First says… “However, man bashing in as and sitcoms is now totally acceptable, and is also the new normal. Nothing is said by most men either, as the women have their balls in their purses.”

Not sure if you realize this but it is always the smaller dog that barks a lot. You should take comfort that men are being mooched, etc. It means we are still on top.

Then again, you are doing a lot of the barking here… So maybe you don’t have a lot of power in your relationships???

#188 neo on 01.16.16 at 9:31 am

Garth,

Any comment on The Fed releasing the Q4 GDP yesterday at a poultry 0.6%. Not exactly as awe inspiring as you make this recovery sound.

I have said growth continues. This confirms that it does. As opposed to Canada. — Garth

#189 Charles Vergerminder on 01.16.16 at 9:32 am

The nonsense coming out of the Tru-dum Liberals is staggering. We keep hearing Trudy and the Barking Seals saying ‘Its Harper’, or ‘It’s Oil’.

But that’s crap , Harper isn’t in power and keeping a boot on the loon with all manner of stupid statements and policy.

Oil is only 3% of the Canadian economy and what is really driving the C$ down is the Liberal Parties incompetence in the eyes of the world. The real drop in Canada’s economy and currency began days after the Liberals were voted in. At least Harper had the worlds respect enough not to attack us, but whats happening now is a disorderly rout.

http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21641288-growth-shifting-oil-producing-west-back-traditional-economic-heartland

And Juniors sunny ways statements of vacuous naivitie is what driving investors to panic and flee.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/as-oil-and-loonie-spiral-is-it-lights-out-for-trudeaus-sunny-economic-ways

#190 waiting on the westcoast on 01.16.16 at 9:37 am

Mocked not mooched in my previous post.

For those of you panicking about the Dry Baltic index… Learn about how it actually works. It is an index that shows both the demand for ships AND the supply of shipping available. It is not an index of the volume of goods travelling. Read this link:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/03/economist-explains-7

#191 Herb on 01.16.16 at 9:54 am

#179 Hope & Change (Canada)

“The recovery was just fantastic though.”

You mean that there is “hope and change” for someone holding 2,000 CPD at an average cost of 17.17?

#192 Josh Carriere on 01.16.16 at 9:56 am

Here’s a weekly WTI futures chart (continuous contract). Very soon the recent crash will equal the length of the 2008 crash (using a log chart -which is necessary here). From a technical perspective support should come in at $26.

#193 Josh Carriere on 01.16.16 at 9:56 am

http://i.imgur.com/9YSk39a.png

#194 maxx on 01.16.16 at 10:01 am

#17 Joe Schmoe on 01.15.16 at 6:35 pm

“Feds are going to be scraping pennies off the floor and allowing people to reuse them by the end of 2016.”

Agreed. Hmmmm……so that would mean that the feds will be turning into….savers?

This war on savers will turn out to be very interesting indeed, if only from the perspective of moral ambiguity, given that the concept of saving seems to be a noble undertaking for government and business, but the lowly individual is not “doing his or her part” by spending to the point of debt.

Savers will never change. Most have acquired the habit from a very early age and it works beautifully.

What tptb fail to understand is that THEY must change and THEY must find sensible solutions to the mess that THEY have created.

Apart from having almost completely destroyed global economies, THEY, more importantly, have decimated confidence – not just at the individual level, but also at the corporate level as well. Trust has evaporated.

Policy may flow down to the masses, but confidence most definitely flows the other way.

The more interest rate screws turn, the more savers will save. Savers are a very creative lot and won’t compromise on quality of life.

Perhaps they might even find greater motivation from watching those pennies being scraped off the ground.

#195 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.16.16 at 10:04 am

@FF- Every time I see or hear words such as “misogynist”, “sexist” of other various and sundry insults used in text or speech I just mentally substitute that word for “poopyhead”. This technique gives me insight into the mentality level of people who use such words.

Try it. Makes for interesting conversations/reading.

#196 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.16.16 at 10:05 am

…OR various. etc.

Poopyheads.

#197 exodice on 01.16.16 at 10:20 am

#86 Brazil ex-pat on 01.15.16 at 7:57 pm
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

We do not live in a capitalist society anymore. 90% of everyone in Brazil is corrupt. ? I don’t know but I can tell you this about Brazil, the people here are one catalyst away from burning down govt buildings they are so mad.”

Brazil…meh, you can have it, lousy dirty beaches, favelas, and crime off the charts…I would take Burkina Faso over Brazil anyday….

#198 Obvious Truth on 01.16.16 at 10:23 am

Prices up at Starbucks. If this extends to lulu lemon millenials will march in the streets!!
Then they will elect the ndp:(

#199 Keith in Calgary on 01.16.16 at 10:24 am

#155 S. Bby

I personally have known the owner of the Lambo dealership in Calgary for over 20 years. His parent dealership in Vancouver he has owned for longer than that, and he is very well capitalized. He built the dealership here with “lunch money”.

Just thought you’d like to know. When restaurants, or dealerships own the building they operate out of, they can last for a very, very, very, long time. There has never been a glut of unsold Lamborghini’s in Canada, Ferrari’s and Porsche’s, that is another story, it all comes down to volume and how you control your market. The money in this business comes from service and used vehicle sales.

#200 Keith in Calgary on 01.16.16 at 10:29 am

Nice to see another ex-pat in Brasil here.

I’ve been travelling to Rio de Janeiro since 2000. Got some 37 + trips under my belt. Speak the language now, married to a Carioca, have jointly owned a condo there with here since 2002, have just applied for my Brasilian equivalent of a PR card, they call it a “VIPER” or permanent visa.

Your comments about the country are spot on, as opposed to the others who have absolutely, positively, no clue whatsoever.

#201 Millmech on 01.16.16 at 10:39 am

Everyone wants housing to go down so they can afford to buy it,the markets go down and get more affordable and it’s end times.The lower markets go the more I will buy to sell on the upswing to the people who constantly buy high and sell low,you know the ones waiting on the sidelines while 50% returns pass them buy and then buy in and make a little before the market corrects itself again.
I’m hoping for a five year downturn in the markets(wishful thinking) so I can load up for another run up for my portfolio before I retire.I don’t believe it will happen but I believe there will be a few more of these buying opportunities before I call it quits from work.
Investing is long term not short,I always look five years ahead and right now we’re entering a great buying cycle.

#202 cupnoodler on 01.16.16 at 10:43 am

#153 Serge Nevsky on 01.15.16 at 11:26 pm
I have a bunch of Maple Stocks that are still doing just fine, paying dividends on time, no news to panic about there. Several stocks have gone up and balanced out the losses of my energy holdings, a wash.

My overall portfolio inc energy is down 7%, news there, but nothing to panic over. I am daily following the RSI of the Maple Crew and have decided that instead of diverting cash to overpriced US stocks I am better off to wait for the RSI to turn up, perhaps as far away as next year and catch a helluva bounce given the historic lows in the standard deviation we’re seeing now.

The Canadian dollar losses are another matter. I was at a currency exchange yesterday in Bangkok and the Loon is trading at a 40% discount YTD to the Thai Baht.

The UK Pound is now 110% higher than the Loon, meaning it takes $2.10 to buy a pound with a C$ Peso. That’s a 60% tumble against the Pound.

The USD is 39 Baht vs C$ 24, a 60% drop from par.

The EU also trades 60% higher than the C$.

Canadians are forced out of The UK, US, EU as travel destinations. Asia is quickly pricing them out, cost’s are getting too high for them. Business is booming in Thailand. 32 million visitors last year alone. Wages are high, the middle class is booming, millions have bought dream homes in suburbs around Bangkok. There are more shopping malls in BKK than in all of Canada, and they’ve more modern and stocked with international juice.
Oh, and the income tax is only 15% here. ..”

Lots of laughs reading this nonsense. Thailand is on the verge of collapse, and the economy is the worst performing one in ASEAN….the appetite for debt is even higher than Canada, to buy these “dream” homes you talk about. As a foreigner you have zero human rights and are only one step away from being throw in the gulag

Income tax 15%?????Let’s check that shall we?

http://www.thesait.org.za/resource/resmgr/international_tax/net_income.jpg

Oh guess wha,t your annual salary is 500-750k THB, around US$13k…guessing you must be an English teacher, not that there is anything wrong with that….enjoy your cup noodles, while looking at the Ferraris.

#203 MF on 01.16.16 at 11:06 am

#153 Serge Nevsky on 01.15.16 at 11:26 pm

Yeah those countries boom…until the next ” kudatat” and civil unrest destroy it.

I’m not exactly bullish on Canada or the moron we voted in, but third world country boom-bust cycles are different and much more intense.

MF

#204 Herb on 01.16.16 at 11:10 am

#189 Vergerminder,

“[N]acuous naivitie”? Just wait till the rump of Harper’s brain trust gets a chance to mouth off in Parliament!

I like your handle and would say “welcome to the blog”, except that you’re just old whine under a new label.

The burgers of Salzburg, Austria, once upon a time were being starved out in a blockade and were down to one steer. So, to demoralize the blockading enemy and simulate a larger herd and food supply, they washed that steer, painted different markings on it every day, and paraded it around the battlements. That’s why residents of Salzburg are still known as “Steerwashers”.

Just like our Neandercon posters, same bull, different handle.

#205 Kuato Lives on 01.16.16 at 11:18 am

Had dinner with a friend last night (in Calgary) who works for Scotia Auto Credit. He said they just cleaned out hundreds of vehicles from the Edmonton Park and Rides that had their keys locked inside. (ie people were just dropping off their vehicles at the park n ride before getting on their 1 way flight back home).

#206 Drill Baby Drill on 01.16.16 at 11:18 am

Dear Pathetic Blog;
The term negative interest rates has been mentioned several times this week in several articles.

So, sadly, has cauliflower. — Garth

#207 TurnerNation on 01.16.16 at 11:24 am

Our cultural Communist revolution.
I do maintain we have de facto one-child policy.
Who can afford kids anyway?
No public word from elites on crumbling infrastructure, massively overbudget graft projects, punishing electricity rates.

No they’ve broken us spirtually, culturally, economically. People won’t even look each other in the eye anymore. Social cocooning: unless you are in their social media feed, you don’t matter.
Shuffle off to your corporate controlled “Smart Centre” shopping area.

But let’s all go in a parade! That’s on the agenda.

“Wynne praises PM for participating in this year’s Pride parade
This year’s Pride parade will mark the first time leaders from all three levels of government will be participating in the event, a development that Premier Kathleen Wynne says is “very significant.”

#208 Daisy Mae on 01.16.16 at 11:37 am

QUOTE: “A few of the more significant factors known to influence the value of the Canadian dollar are described below.

Interest rates: Relatively higher interest rates in Canada increase the foreign demand for the dollar as investors buy these Canadian securities earning higher returns. However, the rate of return to foreign investors is dependent on the expected future performance of the dollar. If foreign investors anticipate a decline in the value of the Canadian dollar, they would demand a higher interest rate on Canadian dollar securities.

Commodity prices: The value of the Canadian dollar is correlated to the strength of world commodity prices. Commodities represent a larger share of exports in Canada compared to the United States and many other countries. As such, when commodity prices rise, Canada’s terms of trade improve because its goods have become relatively more valuable. Since Canada’s effective purchasing power is higher, this movement is usually reflected in a higher exchange rate. The opposite also holds: weaker commodity prices can translate into a weaker Canadian dollar.

Inflation rates: Inflation is the rate at which general price levels rise over time. If inflation in Canada were to exceed foreign inflation rates, then in the long run this would erode the purchasing power of the Canadian dollar relative to foreign currencies. That erosion would be reflected in a decline in the value of the Canadian dollar. The opposite is also true. Sustained, relatively low inflation in Canada has a positive influence on the exchange rate.

International trade of goods and services: When a country is running a trade surplus, the overall value of exports exceeds the value of imports, putting upward pressure on the exchange rate (the demand or receipts for the currency exceed the supply or payments). When a country is running a trade deficit, the overall value of imports exceeds the value of exports, putting downward pressure on the exchange rate (the supply or payments for the currency exceed the demand or receipts).

Foreign investment and debt payments: Inflows of foreign investment in Canada (e.g., the purchase of bonds and stocks by foreigners) increase the foreign demand for Canadian dollars, and thus push the exchange rate up. Direct investment made by Canadians abroad has the opposite effect. Debt payments made to foreigners also push the exchange rate down.

Productivity: As with commodity prices, a country’s productivity – loosely defined as the amount of output that can be produced with a given level of inputs – can be a factor in the determination of the exchange rate through its effect on relative prices and international competitiveness. For example, if productivity in Canada were to grow faster than in the United States, then the prices of Canadian goods would become more competitive and, over time, Canadian output and exports would increase, leading to greater demand for Canadian dollars.”

#209 Ryan the Thirtysomething on 01.16.16 at 11:39 am

Team Cauliflower reporting in. $3.50 in Victoria, BC.

Asparagus was $9.99 though.

Repeat, abandon cauliflower, commence mass panic about asparagus.

#210 My dog has issues on 01.16.16 at 11:39 am

Just curious what you folks would choose to invest in right now. What sectors or countries do you like? Do you see upside in oil stocks? Prefs? US? Gold stocks? International equities? REITS? Or is it a waiting game?

I currently have 35% in equities fully diversified ( down 5-7%) 40 % locked in GIC’s(foolish but prob saved me from painful decisions) and 25% cash waiting to be deployed into the market.

#211 cb on 01.16.16 at 11:45 am

OMG ZPR is almost 7%

#212 JimH on 01.16.16 at 12:14 pm

#101 Jfish on 01.15.16 at 8:21 pm
“So tell me more about the great American economy. Walmart to close 269 store world wide 159 in the U.S. Stock market is crashing. National debt closing in on 19 trillion smackaroonies.”
===================================
You know, folks like you are actually far too stupid to be posting on this blog.

That is not an abusive comment; nor is it disrespectful. It’s just a simple fact judged by your remarks.

1. As for “the great American economy”, no thinking person on this blog holds the simplistic view that the American economy is ‘booming’ or is ‘doing great’ compared to historical norms. The US economy, as others have noted repeatedly, is just the brightest bulb in a dim chandelier; the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry; the best looking and best maintained house on a crappy block.
Despite fierce global headwinds, the US economy is moving in the right direction.

2. Yes, WalMart is closing 159 stores in the USA. As I commented yesterday, 102 of those are the ‘WalMart Express’ mini outlets that were a pilot project now abandoned. The reason for the failure of this quite transparent experiment is clear; WalMart’s internet ‘E’ business is balooning, with or without store pick-up. There is simply no remaining feasible niche for a mini ‘quickie WalMart’ store.

Of the closures outside the US, Walmart will close 60 money-losing sites in Brazil and 55 in other Latin American markets. Besides, Walmart intends to open between 200 and 240 new stores world-wide in 2016.

Isn’t perspective wonderful? Here; let me hold your hand and you can easily see for yourself: (no disrespect, but you can read? Correct?)

http://supermarketnews.com/retail-financial/walmart-close-269-stores-including-all-express-sites

3. “The stock market is crashing”. Well, it certainly is testing the August 2015 and September 2015 lows, isn’t it. Funny, we seem to have survived those episodes when, predictably, folks just as silly as you (no abuse intended) were lighting their hair on fire and calling for an end to life as we know it. Calm down; then look for ways to make some lemonade out of the current lemon windfall.

4. “National debt closing in on 19 trillion smackaroonies.” Not saying sovereign debt of this magnitude is a good thing; But as I have reiterated time and again on this blog, when one wants to mumble on and on about debt, it might just be a good idea to consider two things; the first is the often ignored topic of American assets, ie, total assets of the US Government. You do your own research; mine tells me the total assets run in the hundreds of trillions of dollars as I have posted previously. Can you own personal statements of assets VS liabilities match that ratio? I suspect not.

The second thing to note is the trend and direction of the US debt.

You’re entirely entitled to your own opinions. Just not your own bullshit.

#213 Hawk on 01.16.16 at 12:24 pm

#202 cupnoodler on 01.16.16 at 10:43 am

========================

I’ll take a half-way position between you and him.

Thailand is an amazing place for a vacation (or retirees) and foreigners that respect their laws are generally fine and on the beaches and not in gulags.

That said, Thailand is no economic powerhouse and not the best place in the world for any average person to spend their working years. Canada would be way better, in terms of earning income and savings.

#214 Brazil ex-pat on 01.16.16 at 12:37 pm

#197 exodice on 01.16.16 at 10:20 am
#86 Brazil ex-pat on 01.15.16 at 7:57 pm
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

We do not live in a capitalist society anymore. 90% of everyone in Brazil is corrupt. ? I don’t know but I can tell you this about Brazil, the people here are one catalyst away from burning down govt buildings they are so mad.”

Brazil…meh, you can have it, lousy dirty beaches, favelas, and crime off the charts…I would take Burkina Faso over Brazil anyday….

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Your are correct except for the fact that Brazil is the 5th biggest country in the world. Which means options. There are no options in frozen Canada. Everyone here thinks the global warming thing is hilarious.

#215 hope & ruin on 01.16.16 at 12:42 pm

I caught Jim Carr give an interview on the cbc last night. He’s the minister of our valueless natural resources.

He danced around the question of what he is going to do in the immediate term to help Alberta. Instead of any immediate plans he kept rambling about “generational” plans, making sure we all feel heard and empowering aboriginals in legal processes. Didn’t have anything concrete.

And when I say “danced”, I mean like a nervous 14 year old boy stepping on his partners toes while constantly moving in the wrong direction. He sure is lucky ms. Barton was being nice in that interview. He was stuttering and she wasn’t even grilling him.

If Gerry or T2 are reading this I think he needs a bit more coaching before you send him out to the lions. Poor guy could barely handle the soft-touch CBC interview.

#216 Timing is everthing on 01.16.16 at 12:48 pm

So, sadly, has cauliflower. — Garth

A vegetable blog, eh. Very pathetic, but interesting.
———————————————
All-righty then…

#209 Ryan the Thirtysomething

Thx Ryan. We pay $3.99, large, top quality from The Red Barn (shipped from Caulifornia, of course).

Got sax? Caulifornia Dreamin’ (Best version, imho)…

http://tinyurl.com/h6e2t2f

#217 Mixed Bag on 01.16.16 at 12:49 pm

#116 Bob Rice on 01.15.16 at 9:04 pm

I teach high school kids… I wouldn’t be as optimistic as some. “Educated workforce”? Perhaps if you compile the number of university degrees… but a whole lot of those degrees are useless BAs. What I see is a lot of lazy, uninspired youth with very little regard for what it takes to get by in life… I’m talking about basic life skills.. I tell my students that we are living throughout eh decline of Western Civ.

—————————-

Why some posters giving Bob Rice a hard time? He’s being honest with his students, instead of putting on a face. Bob, out of curiousity, what is the financial demographic of your students’ families? Poor and no hope? Rich and jaded?

#218 hope & ruin on 01.16.16 at 12:54 pm

I hope T2, Gerry, Jimmy and Billy take my criticism as constructive.

We will get your “oh so endearing”, ragtag cabinet of touchy-feely counsellors to the world stage. Maybe you guys can talk with Nutley’s band of merry social workers. They probably have some tips.

In the words of red green: “I’m pulling for you. We’re all in this together.”

#219 Retired Boomer WI on 01.16.16 at 12:56 pm

OK, set a BUY order on VTI at $81.24 quite aways down from the current 95 or so.

Will I get it filled? Probably not, but should it near that price, I’ll have a better understanding of “garden variety dip” or, real recession panic at hand.

Currently, no real sense of PANIC, just your garden variety pullback. So far portfolio is off 2.7% from year end numbers.

In my holdings a 2.7% loss in 15 days is…well disconcerting, yet not so much either.

Who knows, I surely don’t ‘know.’

I’m willing to deploy some dry powder when an irresistible opportunity appears. Unicorns you see…

#220 Mixed Bag on 01.16.16 at 12:56 pm

#174 Freedom First on 01.16.16 at 6:11 am

However, man bashing in as and sitcoms is now totally acceptable, and is also the new normal.

————

Although I find some of your posts and the anti-woman rants tiresome, I almost agree with this statement. It might be more accurate to say, they don’t show a strong male figure. Like in the 50’s shows such as Leave It to Beaver.

On the flip side, marriage is a partnership, and if you’ll pay close attention to those sitcoms, both partners have faults, and neither spouse is the boss. Is this closer to reality? How true to life was Leave It to Beaver?

#221 Hawk on 01.16.16 at 12:57 pm

#153 Serge Nevsky on 01.15.16 at 11:26 pm

======================

Glad you have a sweet deal in Thailand.

Reality is that average” wage in Thailand is around 13600 TBT per month and taken at the current really low CAD$ it amounts to $6,800 annually.

If the CAD$ was at parity with USD it would be less than $4,500 a year.

Sorry pal, the average Canadian makes a wee bit more than that.

(Yeah I also the Ferraris and Masserati’s in the Siam Paragon Mall and a couple of other places, that the 0.001% of Thai’s will buy…………..and they were great)

#222 Lea, south of the border on 01.16.16 at 12:59 pm

#188 neo

Just moved back from Vancouver to Los Angeles. The biggest difference at first glance is that people here are trying to develop businesses and the interest in real estate has waned.

Back in 2006, all anybody could talk about was flipping houses, renovations, real estate licenses and such. Everybody thought they would get rich quickly by flipping homes. Not to mention “taking money out of the house” to buy SUVs and large televisions. It was ridiculous and unsustainable.

Flash forward, overall the fleet of cars is much more modest. In my neighborhood, there are several rental buildings under construction. Things are not booming by any stretch of the imagination, but I think that we might be heading in the right direction.

#223 For those about to flop... on 01.16.16 at 1:04 pm

#197 exodice on 01.16.16 at 10:20 am
#86 Brazil ex-pat on 01.15.16 at 7:57 pm
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

We do not live in a capitalist society anymore. 90% of everyone in Brazil is corrupt. ? I don’t know but I can tell you this about Brazil, the people here are one catalyst away from burning down govt buildings they are so mad.”

Brazil…meh, you can have it, lousy dirty beaches, favelas, and crime off the charts…I would take Burkina Faso over Brazil anyday….

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/488005/Explosions-and-gunshots-outside-Burkina-Faso-hotel-and-casino

///////////////////////////
I’m not planning a trip to either country but I think I would do Brazil first…

M41BC

#224 Jane Simpson on 01.16.16 at 1:15 pm

We don’t have real serious savers in Canada like back even 20 years ago.

People think having $10,000 or $20,000 is a real saver and saving $100 or $200 a month is real saving. It is not.

People are spending thousands a month for 1,2 3 real estate properties and thinking they will hit is big. They actually think is a replacement for saving and investing.

It is better than alot of Canadians being in debt through mostly in real estate.

All my friends sold our houses 2 years ago with 6 figure profits and are saving thousands a month and have been buying for years investment grade bonds at 4.5% to 5.5% for 12 years now and are buying right now investment grade compound bonds of 3.5% to 4% in RRSP’s, TFSA’s which over the long run will add up to 8% to 9% annual interest returns.

As for savers must be on budget, the more they cut interest rates the more stuff we will not buy and we will be considering spending our money in other vacation areas like Brazil were the Canadian dollar is up almost 40%. People have to shop around no matter what it is.

#225 Philburt on 01.16.16 at 1:21 pm

#98 Smoking Man on 01.15.16 at 8:07 pm
Who cares on that!?
Comment to the teacher on the decline of western civ
“Do something about it”
Smoky man why dont you do something about it if yur so smart and have more money than small countries??
But the system is flawed in a big way and making everyone smart and rich wouldnt work for the real people in control. Someone has to do the real work.
Globalization is slavery for the midfle class. I work for a very large corp once as a employee no a contractor.
They pretty much hate employees and continue to cut cut cut and offshore every job possible. They need the share price to go up relentlessly.
I know how to get things rolling!?
Free cash Fridays at the bank!
Money = labour has no storage value.
Fricking idiots digging yet a bigger hole to nowhere.

#226 Ogopogo on 01.16.16 at 1:30 pm

Questrade posted December statements today. In all my and my wife’s accounts (reg & non-reg) we raked in just over $10K in dividends in 2015. This may not sound like much to the 1%ter blog dogs, but to us Gen Xers it’s a miracle, considering that just a few years ago we were deep in debt.

Thanks to the magic of renting and investing, we’re now clocking $833 per month in sweet, sweet divvies. That doesn’t include of course capital gains, if/when we sell our ETFs to vultch a house on the cheap. It also doesn’t account for the great gains our portfolio has had from more money being pumped into our portfolio every month.

Tune out the laughably stupid comments of those still insisting Albert isn’t imploding and that RE is toast coast to coast (except Raincouver and Hogtown).

Invest. Donate to the truly needy. Pity the fools and greater mongoloids still buying in this bubble, but don’t be afraid to deliver the coup de grace to them when the time comes.

#227 Penny Henny on 01.16.16 at 1:37 pm

#163 pwn3d on 01.16.16 at 1:08 am
#22 I’m stupid on 01.15.16 at 6:37 pm
In 20 years in the construction industry, I’ve never seen a builder pay a bonus to any trade. Carpenters are getting as much as a $5 per square foot premium to build homes. The major builders are trying to get as many houses up as quickly as possible. I smell a rush to the exit.
—————–
Apt handle if you think that builders are rushing to complete homes they’ve already sold. The builder I know is very busy right now and is behind schedule because their trades are so busy. It could be they need to offer a premium to get some extra crews to help out.
///////////////////////////////////////

Maybe the builder needs to have houses built by certain date so that buyers will not be able to exercise their walkaway option.

#228 Dups on 01.16.16 at 1:43 pm

“The key theme for 2016 will be real fundamental adjustments that can rebalance markets to create the birth of a new bull market, which we still see happening in late 2016,” Goldman said in a report.

#229 Penny Henny on 01.16.16 at 1:46 pm

#188 neo on 01.16.16 at 9:31 am
Garth,

Any comment on The Fed releasing the Q4 GDP yesterday at a poultry 0.6%.
//////////////////////////////////
Poultry 0.6%. Udderly amazing.

#230 liqudincalgary on 01.16.16 at 2:02 pm

Scumop on 01.15.16 at 6:39 pm
I consider the price of oil to now be fair and reasonable as it should always have been without the decades of price fixing.

============================================

oil now costs less than an empty barrel…

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/1/14/Keep-the-barrel-dump-the-crude-Oil-has-crashed-below-the-cost-of-an-empty-barrel-.aspx

#231 For those about to flop... on 01.16.16 at 2:11 pm

I mentioned once that when I read a WUL post I imagine Matthew McConaughey driving down Main Street Fort Mac…ever since this post by Garth every time I deal with Freedom First I think of this guy…not even mean just my mental picture of him…

M41BC

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/03/page/11/

#232 Aggregator on 01.16.16 at 2:13 pm

Iran frees American prisoners as international sanctions to end

Know what this means? It means Iran is about to unload a load of new oil supply on the market that has been accumulated since US sanctions began.

It may be wise for the Bank of Canada to skip a rate hike next week in order to force CAD speculators into a mini short squeeze, which would likely be offset by declining crude prices, given the news on Iran's new supply. A rate cut with falling crude prices would certainly send the CAD down too quickly from current levels. Central banks are always more concerned about their currency's rate of decline (stability) rather then its exchange level.

#233 Daisy Mae on 01.16.16 at 2:15 pm

#164: “JT has been on the job just a few months.
And he’s already on an extensive tax payer funded holiday. What the ………”

*********************

After an unnecessarily long 2-month campaign thanks to Harper, and three months getting settled in his new role, yeah — he deserves a little time off. Everything isn’t going to fall apart while he’s away.

#234 TurnerNation on 01.16.16 at 2:35 pm

Famines always are man-made, the purges of the elites’ doing.

– Could you imagine a time when people starve, while well-paid uniformed and armed federal men guard and destroy foodstuffs – which have been declared “unsafe” due to an alleged superbug?

– Could you imagine a time when food shelves are bare, carbon and electrical costs and govt red tape and transportation costs render production or transport to your area uneconomical?

I’ve long maintained they wish to shut down our freedom of movement. What if GAS becomes scarce due to man made shortages? Water water everywhere…
Wind and solar power is scarce.

We’re being goaded into fossill fuel use via 84-month auto finance loans. Setting us up for the kill? Broke, paying auto loans and empty gas tanks. Imagine.
(Google search: “Silent weapons”)

Investors Business Business Daily newspaper this weekend reporting:

Oil’s Next ‘Scary Price Point’ May Close The Spigot

“…no U.S. shale oil company is making money from operations, said Jason Wangler, a managing director at Wunderlich Securities.

The next “scary price point” is $20 a barrel, he said. That’s when the production of oil itself — just the cost of lifting it to the surface, excluding overhead, interest and one-time drilling expenses — is no longer feasible.

Read More At Investor’s Business Daily: http://news.investors.com/business/011516-790143-oil-nearing-scary-price-may-close-spigot.htm#ixzz3xRCL38mL

#235 Nanaimo Bar on 01.16.16 at 2:41 pm

#208 Daisy Mae
Interest Rates, Commodity Prices, inflation Rates, International trade of goods and services, foreign investment and debt payments, productivity.
———————————————————————————————

Good post Daisy. Yes all significant factors known to influence the value of the Canadian dollar. I would like to add another little minor thing that can sometimes influence the value of the Canadian dollar…….. U.S. Monetary policy.

#236 45north on 01.16.16 at 2:44 pm

smoking man: Then do something about it, our future depends on rebal teachers.

before you are allowed to teach you must attend the Ontario Institute for Studies in Education:

http://www.oise.utoronto.ca/oise/Home/

here all rebel impulses will be beaten out of you. You will be indoctrinated in political correctness. Gender equality. No boys and girls washrooms.

somehow despite “OISE”, teachers find a way to stand for something. To be something. Courageous under cover.

#237 Oily on 01.16.16 at 2:57 pm

The days of 100$ oil are over permanently. OPEC is after it’s rivals primarily the shale oil industry. The world is awash will shale oil, europe, asia, america you name it.
http://www.financialsense.com/sites/default/files/users/u229/images/2013/local-world-shale-reserves.jpg
The only thing that is going to prevent these reverses from seeing the light-of-day is lower prices. Saudis know this and will keep the supply coming so the price remains in 40-50$ range.

#238 MF on 01.16.16 at 2:58 pm

#233 Daisy Mae on 01.16.16 at 2:15 pm

Yes it is. No he doesn’t.

Feels like no one is flying the plane.

You still blame Harper? Get a life. Your posts are 90% propaganda for the Liberal idiot ruining the country.

MF

#239 MF on 01.16.16 at 3:01 pm

#233 Daisy Mae on 01.16.16 at 2:15 pm

Since T2 took office the currency has collapsed. That’s what Garth’s post mentioned. Money is flowing out of the country because of T2’s policies. Stop trying to put Revlon on the animal’s lips.

MF

#240 S.Bby on 01.16.16 at 3:01 pm

#153 Serge Nevsky on 01.15.16 at 11:26 pm

======================
They set up a storefront car dealership in a mall b/c it’s cheaper than building a full fledged dealership when they will only sell a handful of vehicles.

My guess is the Calgary Lambo dealership will be closed in the next year. They won’t stay afloat on tune-ups.

#241 Centre Wing on 01.16.16 at 3:12 pm

Long time lurker here. Can any of the regulars with a decent financial background be kind enough to offer me some financial advice concerning our household income, debt, savings plans, etc?

#242 Ronaldo on 01.16.16 at 3:23 pm

#214 – Brazil ex-pat

”There are no options in frozen Canada. Everyone here thinks the global warming thing is hilarious”

The new term is “climate change”.

#243 Mark in BC on 01.16.16 at 3:41 pm

Garth, I enjoy your posts, A little depressing at times though! I’ve worked in construction for over 30 years, seen a number of recessions, always lived with the shadow of when’s the next one? My parents had interest rates of 19%, my first place was 11.25% ( thought it was a great deal) those were the good ol days! Mind you houses in the burbs of Van were 150k, now they’re 650k for the same thing! Crazy!!

Now I’m 48, kids grown and gone, reno-ing a house that will have a suite for my adult son and us upstairs, if he has a family, we can trade floors one day. If he wants to buy in one day and we both have an escape clause that’s what we’ll do. To share a house on a big city lot is better than 2 condos for prob the same $$.

Most people I know , our age, that have big houses have rental suites that help pay for it and the tax bills.

If you’ve owned a house for a long time it doesn’t matter if the price goes up or down, you gotta live somewhere!

The danger is the young that just bought that 500k house with min. DP. High mortgage, mini van pmts, eating out pmts… If rates rise to say something cheap in my mind to 7% can you make it? Better check now! If you can’t, better start making adjustments.

My kids are mid 20s, scary thing is they’ve never been through a long downturn. When their complaining about $, I tell them, quit eating out so much, foods cheap at home! Live with some reserve $, guarantee you’ll always need it for emergs!

Sorry for rambling on, I just pray our leaders have smart people around them to help Canada stay strong and prosperous!

#244 kommykim on 01.16.16 at 3:43 pm

RE:

#179 Hope & Change (Canada) on 01.16.16 at 7:41 am

#149 kommykim on 01.15.16 at 11:17 pm
RE:
#60 Peppy sue on 01.15.16 at 7:22 pm
For those of us who currently don’t hold any, Preferreds are looking like too much of a bargain to pass up.
Actually it is a hard lesson for those who thought that they could substitute Preferreds for bonds in a balanced portfolio.

Last time this correlation between bonds & preferred broke down in a big way was 2008. The recovery was just fantastic though.

An image is worth a thousand words.

téléchargement de photos

Actually that image is worth nothing since the link doesn’t work. LOL!
If you held prefs in 2008, then selling your prefs (If that was your fixed income portion) to buy equity ETFs on sale would have sucked. Bonds would have been way better to have.
Rate reset Preferreds are a terrible choice for the fixed income portion of a balanced portfolio. I see ZERO upside to owning prefs over bonds inside a TFSA or RRSP. In a taxble account, an ETF that holds only perpetual prefs, but no rate resets, would be OK, but not ideal because of the way call dates work which limits the upside while allowing downside risk.
Prefs are great to hold for a income stream, but suck at dampening portfolio volatility.

#245 pwn3d on 01.16.16 at 4:11 pm

#227 Penny Henny on 01.16.16 at 1:37 pm

Maybe the builder needs to have houses built by certain date so that buyers will not be able to exercise their walkaway option.
————————-
Builders do have deadlines to meet, they must give notice to delay and the most they can delay is 3 times for a total of 365 days after the first close date. Generally the first close is 1-2 years after you purchase. In this market there is almost no chance someone would walk away from a house they’ve been waiting up to 3 years for as new home prices have increased dramatically over that time. The only compensation they would get is their deposit back and $7,500. It’s not worth it.

Builders want to close because that’s when they get paid and usually need the capital to finance their next project. But at the same time if they need to delay your close, they will. It has nothing to do with them being nervous about the market.

#246 Penny Henny on 01.16.16 at 4:14 pm

#241 Centre Wing on 01.16.16 at 3:12 pm
Long time lurker here. Can any of the regulars with a decent financial background be kind enough to offer me some financial advice concerning our household income, debt, savings plans, etc?
/////////////////////////////////////

Relax Garth, I’ll get this one.
Well Centre Wing let’s tackle those subjects one at a time.
Household income is good. More is better.
Debt not good. Throw it out.
Savings plans = household income – spending – debt reduction.
Etc? What’s that? An ETF?

#247 Godth on 01.16.16 at 4:30 pm

“Energy Revolution? More like a Crawl”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5guXaWwQpe4

#248 Russ on 01.16.16 at 4:32 pm

#229 Penny Henny on 01.16.16 at 1:46 pm

#188 neo on 01.16.16 at 9:31 am
Garth,

Any comment on The Fed releasing the Q4 GDP yesterday at a poultry 0.6%.
//////////////////////////////////

Poultry 0.6%. Udderly amazing.

=======================

Thanks
I’m glad you didn’t wing out on ‘im.

And, umm, shouldn’t that be Nickel Henney, for the times?

#249 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 01.16.16 at 4:33 pm

Garth,

Any comment on The Fed releasing the Q4 GDP yesterday at a poultry 0.6%. Not exactly as awe inspiring as you make this recovery sound.

I have said growth continues. This confirms that it does. As opposed to Canada. — Garth
____________________________________________

Economists and the FED are notoriously bad at predicting recessions. JP Morgan has reduced its Q4 GDP figure to 0.01 (essentially zero). The trend is down, which suggests negative GDP for Q1.

At least Garth just says growth, but his over confidence is mis-placed. We could just as easily see a recession. The problem is Garth likes to pull out the US employment growth (lagging) which is almost like dis information. Even the December figure of 290K employment growth was adusted up with 280K of seasonal adjustment (ie. didn’t happen but we smooth things out).

Take Garth’s forecasts and any economist with a huge grain of salt.

There is no US recession. There is none coming in the short-term. Worry about us. — Garth

#250 Nanaimo Bar on 01.16.16 at 4:36 pm

The international nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, says Iran has put in place all the measures necessary to start implementing the nuclear deal, paving the way for the lifting of sanctions. Just what the world and the stock markets needed. No more God Haters vs the Axis of Evil. As a symbol of repaired relations, Iran has released 5 American detainees that were held captive in exchange for 7 Iranian lawbreakers who had violated sanction agreements. This is all about exporting 144 US aircrafts to Iran in exchange for allowing Iran to export carpets. Carpet weavers will be high fiving in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar. Who says America does not play fairly. Those days are over. Let’s get those freed US hostages onto the Air Force One and back on American soil, just in time for the opening bell on Monday. Time to burn the lavender incense and return calmness to this glorious country we call America. The stock market and the U.S. economy will be clear sailing until October. What? TRUMP WON. But we will worry about that little fork in the road when the day comes. For now, it is all about apple pie and the opening of baseball spring training. Time to gorge on the USD caviar and wash it down with a bottle of light sweet crude. Time to put a little dent in those supplies because this is a celebration. Time for Smoking Man to seriously look at low priced, long term leasing options rather than lavish, short term expensive rentals. Or at least get on a compatible reward buying program. Party on.

No longer will there be terms like an “oil price war”.
It will be known as The Oil World Cup 2016

US/Saudi Arabia vs Russia/Iran

This is going to be a great series. Have to give the nod to the powerhouse US/Saudi Arabia in the early going. Russia/Iran has to be a little worried about US/Arabia running the Statue of Liberty SnapBack play. They just have to wait 30 days to run the play. Russia/Iran have no defence for that play. They can’t even go upstairs for a video review. Their players have to sit on the sidelines while the U.S. has an open field for a easy touchdown. Waving the US flag while chanting “God Bless America”. Leaving the oil short and USD/CAD long crowd in total silence and disbelieve. I’m sure that play was written in real small letters and Kerry mumbled through that part of the agreement.

But maybe Russia/Iran can pickup some players in, the United Arab, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar.

Then there will be the unrestricted free agent entry draft which will include:
Canada, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Libya, Brazil, Venezuela, and Norway. Not sure if there are any players worth signing from this group because a lot of their oil is used for domestic purposes other then Canada. Canada could have a few good goaltenders.

All in all, the world just became a safer place to live.

#251 Godth on 01.16.16 at 4:49 pm

#250 Nanaimo Bar on 01.16.16 at 4:36 pm

The biggest nuclear threat to the world atm is Ukraine.
Plenty of nuclear power plants in a failed state.
http://www.wiseinternational.org/node/4053

#252 Leo Trollstoy on 01.16.16 at 4:53 pm

no where near recession. sorry penniless doomers.

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-not-entering-recession-2016-1

#253 Paul on 01.16.16 at 4:59 pm

It may not be quite the come back for full time jobs State side.
https://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-updated-multiple-jobholders-boost-full-time-employment

#254 Sam on 01.16.16 at 5:00 pm

http://news.yahoo.com/latest-iran-fm-says-nuclear-deal-implemented-094725513.html

25$ Oil and .65 CAD on Monday?

#255 Nanaimo Bar on 01.16.16 at 5:08 pm

# 251 Godth

The biggest nuclear threat to the world atm is Ukraine.
Plenty of nuclear power plants in a failed state.
http://www.wiseinternational.org/node/4053

——————————————————————-

Don’t worry Godth. The nuclear threats from the Ukraine will quieten down when Wise International reaches their donation goals.

#256 NoName on 01.16.16 at 5:11 pm

#239 MF on 01.16.16 at 3:01 pm

Since T2 took office the currency has collapsed. That’s what Garth’s post mentioned. Money is flowing out of the country because of T2’s policies. Stop trying to put Revlon on the animal’s lips.

MF
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

it is funny that you say that that t2 collapsed dollar, i am not here to defend silver spooner who desperatly wants to be working stif, but truth to be told CAD was steadili sliding down under dictator light gov. for years.
So what is gonna be red pill or blue pill?

cad/us 1994-2016
http://tinypic.com/r/2z52l2f/9

#AllIamOfferingIsATruth,NothingMore

#257 NoName on 01.16.16 at 5:11 pm

forgot to add this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zE7PKRjrid4&ab_channel=Movieclips

#258 old gringo on 01.16.16 at 5:13 pm

“We live in interesting times.”
Iran sanctions lifted and oil will pour forth.
USA will raise interest once more.
canada will lower interest yet again.
This is like a perfect storm and Canada is is in the eye.
$15 oil and a 50cent CDN.
The good news is it will pass, just as your dinner does eventually.

#259 NoName on 01.16.16 at 5:18 pm

working link to cad/us 1994-2016 chart

http://oi65.tinypic.com/2z52l2f.jpg

http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2z52l2f&s=9#.Vpq_u5orLRZ

#260 For those about to flop... on 01.16.16 at 5:27 pm

If I had 10 million dollars burning a hole in my pocket would I buy this place ,or a half rotten house in Shaughnessy…decisions ,decisions…

M41BC

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/travel-news-cheap-uk-holidays-luxury-breaks-more-daily-star/487858/Private-island-for-sale-Florida-Keys

#261 Justin Harper on 01.16.16 at 5:33 pm

So the question for Garth that I’ve been hoping to see answered: Where is the best place to put that February bonus, if it’s paid in dollarettes?

#262 hope & ruin on 01.16.16 at 5:34 pm

#233 Daisy Mae on 01.16.16 at 2:15 pm

Everything isn’t going to fall apart while he’s away.
________________________________________

lol famous last words.

let’s hope so daisy mae. let’s hope so.

#263 TRT on 01.16.16 at 5:49 pm

Worth a 2 minute read :

http://moneyweek.com/if-these-guys-are-right-the-sp-500-could-fall-below-its-2008-low/

Do you not understand why fear is used to sell subscriptions? — Garth

#264 hope & ruin on 01.16.16 at 6:03 pm

#252 Leo Trollstoy on 01.16.16 at 4:53 pm

from Leo’s link:

“what really led the US into recession wasn’t just an overheating of home prices but the way homeowners borrowed against these home values and eventually stretched themselves too thin, financially.”
_______________________________________

oh great. sounds familiar.

#265 WUL on 01.16.16 at 6:04 pm

Hey RETIRED WI BOOMER:

Months ago you replied to me that you had often thought about motoring through the Canadian Rockies. This summer will be the time to do it. If you have US greenbacks, everything will be basically free. Fire up the 1989 Fleetwood. Carbon taxes won’t even cut into the savings on Marlboros.

Go Packers!

#266 Millmech on 01.16.16 at 6:11 pm

#233 Daisy Mae
After five months of work in a job he had nine years to prepare for he needs a vacation?
Image finishing off your nine years of schooling taking a new job,interview for two months to get that job,working for three months and now telling your boss that you need a vacation!He wanted the job so he can suck it up princess,you can see the great leadership in time of crisis”Mr Trudeau the Presidents on the phone”,JT response will be “tell him I’m in the bathroom I’ll call back when I’m done”

#267 Big Dipper on 01.16.16 at 6:37 pm

#239 MF on 01.16.16 at 3:01 pm

#233 Daisy Mae on 01.16.16 at 2:15 pm

Since T2 took office the currency has collapsed. That’s what Garth’s post mentioned. Money is flowing out of the country because of T2’s policies. Stop trying to put
Revlon on the animal’s lips.

MF
———————————————–

Proud of yourself Garth?

Don’t blame me. I voted Rhino. — Garth

#268 Tim Darron on 01.16.16 at 6:52 pm

Those 2% maitoba bonds are looking OK afterall.
I heard that they actually have a functioning economy over there.

#269 46 and 2 on 01.16.16 at 6:58 pm

Word around Calgary is that the TCPL inventory of 1,500 plus miles of specially machined/fabricated pipe engineered to handle bitumen which is sitting somewhere in the Dakota’s is now for sale.

#270 Paul on 01.16.16 at 6:58 pm

#233 Daisy Mae on 01.16.16 at 2:15 pm

#164: “JT has been on the job just a few months.
And he’s already on an extensive tax payer funded holiday. What the ………”

*********************

After an unnecessarily long 2-month campaign thanks to Harper, and three months getting settled in his new role, yeah — he deserves a little time off. Everything isn’t going to fall apart while he’s away
———————————————————-
If that’s the case why have him there at all!
Justin could kill kittens and you would still defend him.

#271 Yitzhak Rabin on 01.16.16 at 7:22 pm

The “recovery” was nothing but a phony run of mal-investment funded by historically cheap money at the expense of an ever greater mountain of debt. The phony economy that lives by QE, dies by the lack of QE.

From the doomer consipracy news source Reuters:

“The worst ever start to a year for financial markets has left traders and economists rethinking the global monetary policy outlook, with some predicting the Federal Reserve will quickly reverse last month’s historic rate rise.”

Exactly what I have been writing in the pathetic comment section of this even more pathetic blog for years. QE4 is next. Meanwhile gold is quickly going up in Canadian dollars while stocks tank.

#272 Daisy Mae on 01.16.16 at 7:38 pm

#177: “People voted for JT whose major campaign promise was a middle class TAX CUT.”

*********************

We voted for change. Inasmuch as Garth suggested we should vote ‘for’ and not ‘against’ — which would be ideal under normal circumstances which we have not experienced for years and years — we voted against Harper. He had to go.

#273 GregW on 01.16.16 at 7:43 pm

Hi Garth, re: Dogs

This “Dog” isn’t for everyone, but if you live in a NO PET place…Maybe? Might also put a dint in the pet food and vet market. A short video at link.
I wonder what the cats will think?

“World’s First Lovable Robot Dog
Trainable, Loyal, & Affectionate. CHiP can recognize, obey, learn, and wants to be your new best friend.”
http://www.chipk9.com/

#274 Where is my prozac on 01.16.16 at 7:47 pm

@116
That’s a result of liberal social policies. People lose competitive edge, become lazy, uninvolved. What’s the point if those educated, successful, talented are penalized in Canada.

#275 Investorz on 01.16.16 at 7:49 pm

We’ve been hitting canadians on the head for piling their money in houses. Well now we have even less arguments than before… the stock market is getting smashed, reinforcing my family’s believe that houses is a safe and better investment.

Sigh.

And traders think we’re going lower.
And that it’ll take a long time to repair the damage.

Plus now 10Y bond yields are down, a lot. So much for rising rates.

#276 Mark on 01.16.16 at 7:54 pm

” Can any of the regulars with a decent financial background be kind enough to offer me some financial advice concerning our household income, debt, savings plans, etc?”

I’m sure if you post in some generalities, you might get a bit of feedback. Which you will probably have to criticially analyze for sanity and reasonableness as there are some real off-the-wall posters here. However, the blog comments section really isn’t a substitute for sitting down with someone who can learn about your specific situation in detail. Whether that be a trusted and objective friend, or a licensed/credentialled professional financial advisor.

Basically put, Garth champions professional advice when necessary, balanced portfolios and balance in life. Tools such as his “rule of 90”, “don’t buy an investment with anyone you don’t sleep with”, and various tax tips along the lines of structuring borrowing and investments such that interest is deductible is pretty generic stuff. Lurk here long enough, hang out at the FWF forums, etc., and eventually you’ll have a decent handle on it. Or yeah, go see a professional that will see you for a one-time for-fee consultation. And maybe another for a second opinion. But the key here is to develop a capability, in your own brain, to make decisions and to test the advice of your ‘advisors’ for sanity.

#277 Nanaimo Bar on 01.16.16 at 7:55 pm

The Oil Rush has begun in Iran

The biggest prize of all is oil, according to Paolo Scaroni, deputy chairman of investment bank Rothschild and a former CEO of Eni Spa, Italy’s largest energy company. Massive reserves and production costs of as little as $2 a barrel make Iran one of the most attractive opportunities in the world, even with crude prices at 12-year lows, he said.
“Everyone is going there,” Scaroni said. “Everyone is expecting the new contracts will be the real start of the race.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-01-16/iran-s-lost-decade-ending-as-nuke-inspectors-verify-compliance

#278 salonist on 01.16.16 at 7:55 pm

this is harpers’ barf bag
spending more from the purse than you bring to the purse

“that’s not the conservative way”
“throw the bum out”

anyone seen harper…..shush……sound familiar…the sound of silence and it will all go away

#279 Daisy Mae on 01.16.16 at 8:01 pm

#262: “Everything isn’t going to fall apart while he’s away.”
________________________________________

“lol famous last words.

let’s hope so daisy mae. let’s hope so.”

******************

Gawd, don’t use ‘LOL’ — someone might be offended. Anyway, Trudeau did what he could, before he left for a much-needed vacation. The economy will sort itself out in due time. Relax. The Liberals are not responsible for the present situation….they’ve just been left holding the bag.

#280 Nanaimo Bar on 01.16.16 at 8:23 pm

Sorry Garth, one last post.

Get out the tissues for Monday morning and watch the American pride swell.

Daddy’s Coming Home

Naghmeh Abedini, wife of the freed Iranian-American pastor, told CNN that she expected her husband to head to a U.S. military facility in Germany for a medical evaluation after leaving Iran. “I woke my kids and said ‘Daddy’s coming home,”’ Abedini said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-16/iran-frees-4-dual-nationals-as-part-of-prisoner-exchange-deal

#281 TRT on 01.16.16 at 8:28 pm

Do you not understand why fear is used to sell subscriptions? — Garth

Just trying to balance opposing views. Too much financial industry bias in MSM business news these days. My generation believes in NO censorship. Sorry, but just trying to balance things out.

And I do believe the equity markets are going to tank big time. Ive been saying that the loonie was going to be sacrificed and it has. Now I’m saying Commodity prices are down (Oil is one component) because China is going for a hard landing.

China has unsustainable debt so they will continue to devalue their currency. This will export deflation across the globe. It will crash North American equity markets.

#282 Retired Boomer WI on 01.16.16 at 8:50 pm

3265 WUL

Great Idea! First, the Caddy is a 1993 Fleetwood, but close enough.

At the rate my portfolio gas been farting bucks down the pooper, I might still have just enough left to make a round trip out west.

This time of year, when it’s zero out tonight, when we left the local pub to watch the Packers, our minds are on Florida (that’s in Feb). It’s so dam cold with the wind chill I’m farting snowflakes! Good thing I was topped up with peppermint, brandy, and beer!

I filled the old Caddy for a whopping $26 American today.
Haven’t done THAT in quite a while. The old shit box is nearing 74K now, almost broke in. It’ll be off to the sunshine state first, then to the land of the Oil promises!

Assuming the whole shooting match doesn’t got into a spastic response to idiocy first! One never can tell when stupidity can Trump reality!

Go Back!

#283 Fed-up on 01.16.16 at 8:51 pm

Garth and many other financial analysts and specialists could very well be right that we are not entering another bear market coupled with a prolonged global recession or even worse, another 2008.

But with the greatest amount of respect I wonder, what were these same individuals telling their clients back in early 2008? Or 2011? Or 2000? Or 1987? Was it,”Nothing looming to worry about, all is well, move along”, or were they singing a different tune and chiming the warning bells? I really don’t know for sure.

Perhaps preparing yourself for the worst wouldn’t be the dumbest thing an investor could do.

Those investors with proper portfolios who slept through 2008, 2011 or 1987 did swell. The pantywaists trying to time the unknown and acting out of fesr did not. Some things never change. — Garth

#284 bill on 01.16.16 at 9:07 pm

#147 prairie person on 01.15.16 at 11:10 pm
I thought someone on the blog pointed out that because of the fleet overbuild due to the china ‘miracle’ there are quite a lot of bulk carriers idle.
this person felt that another index ,whose name escapes me at the moment was a better look at what is being shipped…

#285 46 and 2 on 01.16.16 at 9:11 pm

“Diversification key to success of Canadian economy, PM Trudeau says” same thing Notley sez….unfortunately neither has a clue about what drives diversification, which is access to RISK capital. Unless the federal and provincial governments can somehow force our spoiled brat closed shop bankers to finance any form of diversification it ain’t happening anytime soon.

#286 Retired Boomer WI on 01.16.16 at 9:19 pm

Ummm. about them Packers… my feeling they will go bust 31-14 in the end.

Why…just the way they have been playing the game.

Could be wrong, after all, I play with investments, what do I know?

#287 Fed-up on 01.16.16 at 9:28 pm

“Perhaps preparing yourself for the worst wouldn’t be the dumbest thing an investor could do.”

Those investors with proper portfolios who slept through 2008, 2011 or 1987 did swell. The pantywaists trying to time the unknown and acting out of fesr did not. Some things never change. — Garth

——————————————————————————

Well preparing yourself for the worst can be defined in may ways. It doesn’t necessarily mean you have to try and time the market. One could just mentally accept the possibilities that we are heading for a crap storm or this could be very short lived volatility instead of kidding yourself one way or another.

Just my 2 pennies CDN anyway.

#288 BG on 01.16.16 at 9:29 pm

#154 Gulf breeze on 01.15.16 at 11:38 pm
[…]
Lowering the tfsa limit, which reduces tax dollars coming in, at the moment we need them the most, for social programs, was the right thing to do, fiscally and morally. It’s highly stimulative, will help lay infrastructure for the new and maintain the old.
—————————————————————

The extra 5k I would have put in a TFSA 2016 will go in a RRSP instead, and land me a $2300 tax return.

I had actually avoided using the RRSP before because I’m not a fan of not being sure of the tax bracket when I’ll withdraw.

But the government lowering the TFSA limit kind of motivated me to give another look to the RRSP. And with all the accumulated room in there, I will actually get a total of 18k in tax return for 2015 thanks to the RRSP.

If there’s a decent amount of people in a similar situation, then lowering the TFSA limit was a terrible move.

#289 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.16.16 at 9:40 pm

At least Garth just says growth, but his over confidence is mis-placed. We could just as easily see a recession. The problem is Garth likes to pull out the US employment growth (lagging) which is almost like dis information. Even the December figure of 290K employment growth was adusted up with 280K of seasonal adjustment (ie. didn’t happen but we smooth things out).
Take Garth’s forecasts and any economist with a huge grain of salt.

There is no US recession. There is none coming in the short-term. Worry about us. — Garth
———-
Wells Fargo reports profits down, Loan Loss provisions up.
Remember, the unravelling always starts at the fringe.

#290 Mark on 01.16.16 at 9:41 pm

“Unless the federal and provincial governments can somehow force our spoiled brat closed shop bankers to finance any form of diversification it ain’t happening anytime soon.”

Shutting down the CMHC would be a good start. Why would bankers invest in anything risky, when they can just lever up 10-20X on CMHC-guaranteed subprime mortgages (which are the technical equivalent of sovereign debt), and almost never lose?

Of course, since the Tory party was essentially captured by realtors at the grassroots level, and bankers at the high level, this didn’t happen, and pro-housing/pro-RE finance policy was pursued almost unilaterally by the government to the logical exclusion of investment in most other sectors. The O&G sector thrived in spite of the Tories, not because of the Tories (this is what the Notley bashers seem to miss, IMHO, in their wishful thinking that the NDP is responsible for a loss of profits in the oilpatch, including that pathetic display of dishonest politicking by CNQ’s management a few months back.

The problem with shutting the CMHC down is that if they do it too quickly, they risk precipitating a systemic crisis in the Canadian economy. Although arguably, with the currency and Canadian RE dropping so precipitously as of late, such is probably already baked into the cake at this point. So Trudeau probably would be well advised to take the big hit now and have a few years of ‘recovery’ instead of dragging things out.

#291 Panhead on 01.16.16 at 9:43 pm

Oh man … cauliflower is over rated. It’s only something to hold the dip. But brussel sprouts … they are pricey and home grown … what’s with them suckers?

#292 S.Bby on 01.16.16 at 9:45 pm

#279 Daisy Mae
“The economy will sort itself out in due time. Relax.”
===========================
Like the budget will balance itself?

#293 Jimmy Dix on 01.16.16 at 9:55 pm

#174 Freedom First on 01.16.16 at 6:11 am
The basis is there, but I would elaborate on everything in much greater detail as the men of today have been so brainwashed by our submissive feminist society that crazy female behaviour has become invisible to them and is the new norm. To anyone who can still think for themselves, and tries to correct this epidemic of crazy, well, that is simply not PC, and you are therefore a misogynist. Women are to be worshiped and incapable of any wrongdoing.
*******************************************

@Freedom First, wow, really?!
Watch until 46:18, although the rest is good too :-)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ai49Yv_5v4o&t=45m38s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ai49Yv_5v4o&t=45m38s

#294 Bottoms_Up on 01.16.16 at 10:17 pm

#242 Ronaldo on 01.16.16 at 3:23 pm
———————————
Actually both terms are useful.

Global warming describes the proven fact the earth’s surface has warmed at an unprecedented rate over the past 150 years.

Climate change describes local events such as a greater number and/or more powerful storms and droughts and floodings etc.

#295 Serge Nevsky on 01.16.16 at 10:19 pm

“Oh, and the income tax is only 15% here. ..”

Lots of laughs reading this nonsense. Thailand is on the verge of collapse, and the economy is the worst performing one in ASEAN….the appetite for debt is even higher than Canada, to buy these “dream” homes you talk about. As a foreigner you have zero human rights and are only one step away from being throw in the gulag

Income tax 15%?????Let’s check that shall we?

http://www.thesait.org.za/resource/resmgr/international_tax/net_income.jpg

Oh guess wha,t your annual salary is 500-750k THB, around US$13k…guessing you must be an English teacher, not that there is anything wrong with that….enjoy your cup noodles, while looking at the Ferraris.”

More uninformed Canadian jealousy. Corporation employee’s have a separate tax rates . If you come in as an expert ex-pat you’ll qualify for the 15% tax rate…as I do. If you think that all farang teach English and live like locals…your info is so 30 years ago. There is a strong manufacturing center….it’s booming with global investment. The current government is as stable and no more dictatorial than the Trudeau Liberals. Here they are protesting changes to the Constitution..in Canada people have been as silent as sheep over the suggestion that they will lose their voting rights. Which is the third world dictatorship?

And despite what anyone might say about Thai politics being different from Canada…yes it is different…but it works for the Thai as the economy is booming rather than failing and millions of Thai are lifted out of poverty every year as opposed to Canada where more Canadians are dragged into poverty every year.

I was offered $28,500 more to work here than the best HR Dept could offer me in Canada for the same job…..raising me well over the 6 figure mark. I work in an office tower full of people from around the world…just like me. The falling loon gives me a fat raise every time it swoons..an extra $12,000 so far this year. Unfortuneatley there are few Canadians qualified to break into the global market…it’s all about skills.

A majority of the tourist sludge who visit Thailand will never rub shoulders with the middle or professional class….of whom there are tens of millions…making better than western salaries and living a very good life…far above what suburban Canadians enjoy.

The thousands of office towers in Bangkok are full of international workers. The security in those buildings ensured that no tourist sludge will ever get inside the parking lot.

There are suburbs to the north and east with millions of new homes looking more like San Diego than anything Vancouver has to offer…all with two and three cars in the driveway….big swimming pools out the back. There are millions of families that can now afford a western education for their children and the young people are very worldy. But you have to be able to access this new society instead of the poverty stricken street workers that a tourist is likely to bump up against.

Don’t believe what you read and see in the CBC docs about Thailand needing Canada. It’s always some back country water buffalo scene entirely unrepresentative as to the reality. Canada is in much worse shape than Thailand.

BTW…the Ferrari’s in the malls are being purchased by Thai’s..not rich HAM as the majority are in Canada …here wealth is being created organically. Because surprise surprise….wages are much higher for executive positions than the are in Canada.

#296 Andrew on 01.16.16 at 10:32 pm

My wife works for a clothing manufacturer. They buy in USD, even though everything comes from China. The writing is on the wall that everything is about to go up – not just cauliflower or lettuce but anything that is bought in USD internationally (think anything from China)….so yeah, everything. I was at a winner’s department store the other day and the shelves were half empty. I asked my wife and she said the buyers are likely holding off on purchasing, hoping the dollar swings back….

In a country where everything starts to go up in price….imagine that! Inflation finally arrives

#297 Randman on 01.16.16 at 10:40 pm

Do you not understand why fear is used to sell subscriptions? — Garth”

Oh for god sakes ……and so does Greed…..your bias is showing Garth!!!

Look at the facts….

My bias is a non-emotional approach to investing. Try it. — Garth

#298 greyhound on 01.16.16 at 10:42 pm

I wonder if an investment opportunity isn’t on the horizon. Oil’s not going to $5, the loonie isn’t going to 50 cents, the TSX isn’t going to zero. Sometime in the next year or so could be a good time to dollar-cost-average into Maple. I’m biding my time.

#299 Bottoms_Up on 01.16.16 at 10:50 pm

#234 TurnerNation on 01.16.16 at 2:35 pm
———————–
Ok, they’re not making money from “operations”, but they are making money from refining.

One barrel sells for what, $35? However, one barrel is refined into 21 gallons of gasoline (=80 litres, =$70)….25 litres of diesel (=$25)….20 litres of jet fuel (=$120)….plus other products. So each barrel is actually worth (gross) after refining a few hundred bucks. Of course taxes are built in to this number, but this is where the money is being made, so the integrated oil companies are still making money, despite the low cost of selling oil.

http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/gasoline/whats_in_barrel_oil.html

#300 Nagraj on 01.16.16 at 11:04 pm

Well aint it just too frickin bad that oil wants to go 20 as vs 200, that our proud and precious NATIONAL CURRENCY is sick, and that stock mkts aint goin from greater heights to greater heights, daily, per ZIRP&QE ad astra ad infinitum ad nauseam like they should.
Quelle horreur, to be sure.

Where are the peasants singing while they toil in the fields, dancing their way home with nought but praises for their noble betters on their honest lips? Eh?
– nuthin but curses as they crawl in or outa Hogtown at rush hour

Why don’t yas all work for free for a year?

Sumpin wrong?

Was it yesterday that the WH Press Smiley said that the palace is “monitoring” the stock mkt – what do you suppose they is “monitoring” it for? Laughs?
A few days back Shedlock wrote that he fully expects Yellen to resign for reasons of health –
And early next week CHINA is expected to report the worst growth numbers in 25 years.
But I’m really looking forward to next Wednesday in Canada, the greatest country on the face of the earth, whose people are morally superior like its cows which explains the price of milk and cheese here. Suppose that Poloz person will say: Why don’t yas not eat fresh fruits and veggies for a year?

#301 BS on 01.16.16 at 11:20 pm

Daisy Mae on 01.16.16 at 7:38 pm

We voted for change. Inasmuch as Garth suggested we should vote ‘for’ and not ‘against’ — which would be ideal under normal circumstances which we have not experienced for years and years — we voted against Harper. He had to go.

By that logic Kim Jong Un or Putin would have gotten your vote. Sad.

#302 BS on 01.16.16 at 11:27 pm

S.Bby on 01.16.16 at 9:45 pm

#279 Daisy Mae
“The economy will sort itself out in due time. Relax.”
===========================
Like the budget will balance itself?

Trudeauanomics. Do nothing and it will be sunny ways.

Can’t blame him. He has lived a good life and has pretty much been on vacation the whole time. In his 40s and only worked 2 years at a real job. Even that was a teacher working 5 hour days 8 months per year.

#303 bdy sktrn on 01.16.16 at 11:28 pm

#295 Serge Nevsky on 01.16.16 at 10:19 pm
——————————-
i got a couple cheap suits made there in ’91 on vac from tokyo teaching gig.

is the air still dark-brown-ish?

otherwise sounds cool.

#304 serge nevsky on 01.16.16 at 11:38 pm

DELETED

#305 Mark on 01.16.16 at 11:43 pm

“My wife works for a clothing manufacturer. They buy in USD, even though everything comes from China. The writing is on the wall that everything is about to go up – not just cauliflower or lettuce but anything that is bought in USD internationally (think anything from China)…”

Chinese export prices are suffering significant weakness, if not outright deflation. So chances are, those USD$-quoted prices will fall as well. Just because the particular transactions are ‘settled’ in USD$ doesn’t mean that prices are fixed to USD$.

The mistake is thinking of USD$ prices as being static. They’re generally not. They might be on small purchases of individual in-demand consumer goods, but when the purchasers are buying by the container load and the economy has slowed down, there is a lot of room for prices to fall to reflect the market.

Additionally, the cost of manufacturing for clothing is only a relatively small portion of its on-shelf cost. Same with the imported vegetables. In a slowing Canadian economy, retailers and the overall supply chain absorb much of the CAD$’s loss. Most likely that big legacy department store chain that’s been shedding its RE to stay alive will finally disappear.

#306 Smoking Man on 01.16.16 at 11:51 pm

What do I Know..

Who’s the king? That’s what.

Holly crap, after the drunk up last night and with 12 hours’ sleep, I drove home probably drunk.

Been vegging on the couch. Watching movies. Saw the Martian, same Cultural Marxism at work. Woman commander, Brainiac black dude. I’m cool with it, beats gangster man.

Holly wood rules our minds. Well not mine. Before Marian. Enemy of the state was watched.

Funny how the villain’s birthday was on 911. Guy running NSA, start of the show, references to falling buildings to get everyone to accept big bro watching. It was done in 1989. Three years before 911.

You want to know who the secret king is, my money on the guy who fired Charlie Sheen. Or the guy he answers too.

Or perhaps this is another delusion….

#307 Millmech on 01.17.16 at 12:07 am

#301 BS
She still believes that only the rich benefitted from the tfsa limit being $10,000,just ask her to clarify it with any sort of facts.

#308 Big Dipper on 01.17.16 at 12:17 am

#239 MF on 01.16.16 at 3:01 pm

#233 Daisy Mae on 01.16.16 at 2:15 pm

Since T2 took office the currency has collapsed. That’s what Garth’s post mentioned. Money is flowing out of the country because of T2’s policies. Stop trying to put
Revlon on the animal’s lips.

MF
———————————————–

Proud of yourself Garth?

Don’t blame me. I voted Rhino. — Garth

——————————–

Nah you did not, and under the first round the post it was a useless vote anyway.

Much better to have a Blog and spread ideology and propaganda that way. Like a Pied Piper you have easy access to the easily confused. An endless supply…..

You lead the way. — Garth

#309 MF on 01.17.16 at 1:34 am

#295 Serge Nevsky on 01.16.16 at 10:19 pm

I wasn’t sure who to believe so I googled “Thailand Economy” and clicked on news. 1.2 million pages with this at the top is what showed up:

-Can tourism rescue Thailand’s economy (Jan 12 2016)
-Foreign investment plummets 78% in Junta-ruled Thailand (Jan 12 2016)
-Thailand Economy Suffers Shinawatra Legacy (Jan 13 2016)
-Head of Thailand’s Central Bank Say’s Thai Economy Entering Difficult Times (December 29 2015)

You get the point.

https://www.google.ca/?gws_rd=ssl#q=thailand+economy&tbm=nws

MF

#310 serge nevsky on 01.17.16 at 3:26 am

#295 Serge Nevsky on 01.16.16 at 10:19 pm
——————————-
i got a couple cheap suits made there in ’91 on vac from tokyo teaching gig.

is the air still dark-brown-ish?

otherwise sounds cool.”

Clear blue skies today…gorgeous weather…38 degree’s. You might have mistaken BKK for Shanghai? Suits are still for the drunk tourists who want a cheap suit.”It’s cooler than ever.

#311 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 01.17.16 at 7:57 am

#254 Sam on 01.16.16 at 5:00 pm
_____________________________

US market is closed Monday. $25 oil wil have little impact on Canada because we are already at $16 CAD for our crappy stuff. Air and water go for more. The US $ (DXY) has not moved YTD, which given the turmoil of the last two weeks means it has topped and commodities have bottomed.
__________________________________________

“Those investors with proper portfolios who slept through 2008, 2011 or 1987 did swell. The pantywaists trying to time the unknown and acting out of fesr did not. Some things never change. — Garth”

The problem with this boomer argument is that “safe” stuff bonds are richly valued valued this time. Garth says no negative interest rates are coming. So, suck or blow, not both. Equities, Bonds, Commodities and RE can all go down at the same time especially if the US enters a recession.

About that. The US is critical to Canada. To not worry about the US is simplistic as Canada, China and essentially every economy are interconnected. If the US goes into recession then all exporters have a problem whether from Alberta, Ontario or Dalian.

Monetary policy is pushing on a string. T2 is going to have to double down on infastructure like China did in ’09 to skirt this disaster. It is not the worst time with cheap rates and now cheap labour from Alberta.

The loser’s credo, embraced by the young: ‘It’s different this time.’ Until human nature changes, it’s not. — Garth

#312 gut check on 01.17.16 at 8:04 am

@ #306 Smoking Man on 01.16.16 at 11:51 pm

Been vegging on the couch. Watching movies. Saw the Martian, same Cultural Marxism at work

***************************

You are so right. It was difficult to watch the whole thing as my mind kept mentally rejecting the subtext. It was like watching an extended ad for Science ™ and glib horsesh!t politics.

#313 IRent on 01.17.16 at 8:34 am

Will the rate cut lift TSX. Do does this mean buy more Equity etf?

Thanks.

#314 james on 01.17.16 at 8:47 am

#306 Smoking Emasculated Turd

Holly crap, after the drunk up last night and with 12 hours’ sleep, I drove home probably drunk.

—————————————————-

You are a lying, fraudulent piece of shit. And proud to be a drunk driver. Like your idiot loser supporters will cheer you on.

To those people, give your heads a shake.

A narcissistic, unoriginal douchebag like you is a cancer on humanity.

Today you force me to think again of the family members I have lost to drunk drivers, and the stupid selfishness of those who caused their deaths.

You are a complete ass. Go away idiot.

#315 For those about to flop... on 01.17.16 at 9:33 am

#308 Big Dipper on 01.17.16 at 12:17 am
#239 MF on 01.16.16 at 3:01 pm

#233 Daisy Mae on 01.16.16 at 2:15 pm

Since T2 took office the currency has collapsed. That’s what Garth’s post mentioned. Money is flowing out of the country because of T2’s policies. Stop trying to put
Revlon on the animal’s lips.

MF
———————————————–

Proud of yourself Garth?

Don’t blame me. I voted Rhino. — Garth

——————————–

Nah you did not, and under the first round the post it was a useless vote anyway.

Much better to have a Blog and spread ideology and propaganda that way. Like a Pied Piper you have easy access to the easily confused. An endless supply…..

You lead the way. — Garth

//////////////////////////////
You underestimate your fellow commentators ability to think for themselves.
Personally I have yet to vote in an Canadian election…my riding is solid orange and has been that way since the David Emerson saga.
I may vote in the next election …at the moment I am pro TFSA and anti people in Ottawa that don’t have a clue what they are doing.

M41BC

Without voting you lose the right to comment. — Garth

#316 Bolden Blitzer on 01.17.16 at 9:40 am

#309 MF on 01.17.16 at 1:34 am
#295 Serge Nevsky on 01.16.16 at 10:19 pm

I wasn’t sure who to believe so I googled “Thailand Economy” and clicked on news. 1.2 million pages with this at the top is what showed up”

While you are googling, try “Koh Tao Murders” and see what comes up…

#317 Daisy Mae on 01.17.16 at 9:54 am

“…did swell.”

********************

Haven’t heard that term for a long time! Is that the way we talked in ’87?

#318 Daisy Mae on 01.17.16 at 10:05 am

#301: “By that logic Kim Jong Un or Putin would have gotten your vote. Sad.”

********************

Has anyone reminded you lately that you’re a complete jerk?

#319 Harbour on 01.17.16 at 10:37 am

#314 james on 01.17.16 at 8:47 am

Soon as I see Smoking I just roll on past, I never read his mindless borring babble.

#320 serge nevsky on 01.17.16 at 10:40 am

“Reality is that average” wage in Thailand is around 13600 TBT per month and taken at the current really low CAD$ it amounts to $6,800 annually.”

There are millions of low income seniors and disabled persons in Canada living on subsistence incomes, many starve and shiver on the equivalent incomes. The fat is that a poor person has a better standard of living here due to rock bottom prices for food, clothing and accommodation. There is free health care and education for the poor here. A decent room can be had for $100 a month and less. Low wages don’t mean poverty here in the same way they do in Canada.

****No ex pat comes to this part of the world to earn ‘an average wage’, we fly high above the wage earning crowds, and if there are problems, we are whisked off to another ‘campus’, like Singapore or Kuala Lumpur and put up in a 5 start hotel until everything gets settled. That’s true whatever country you happen to be posted in.

MF- If you were to Google ‘Canada’ you’d get all the same answers.

“-Can tourism rescue Thailand’s economy (Jan 12 2016)
-Foreign investment plummets 78% in Junta-ruled Thailand (Jan 12 2016)
-Thailand Economy Suffers Shinawatra Legacy (Jan 13 2016)
-Head of Thailand’s Central Bank Say’s Thai Economy Entering Difficult Times (December 29 2015)”

None of this matters to the professionals who occupy the 60 story office buildings. If the tourist industry suffers I profit, it makes beach resort rooms even cheaper than they already are. The building will likely have a pool, try that in Canada.

However, tourist numbers are exploding to over 32 million this year. The EU, AM and UK Pound are all at highs globally, it’s Canadian dollars that are in the toilet.

Thailands currency has been more stable than Singapores this year. The Shinawatra legacy is long gone. The reporters who bring it up are the same clowns who still talk about George Bush.

Foreign Investment has bailed from Canada far more than from Thailand. Thailand is in the midst of several nationally significant infrastructure super plays unlike Canada with zero activity..

Our own government is telling us the Canadian economy is swirling down the toilet. Bottom line, don’t point fingers at Thailand using Canada as an example. Business is booming here. They are bringing experts at record pace to keep up with demand. Wages for ex pat professionals have never been higher. I don’t know anyone making less than $160,000 per year ( paid in Baht as is the law, but that’s OK because the Baht is up 38% on the C$ in the past year.

Plus in these countries they give big signing bonuses, moving allowances, relocation packages, free school for the kids, free language lessons, RSU’s that make you giddy. Our stock is up from $500 to over $1300 USD per share in 3 years.

I can tell you that the poor on low incomes are a lot worse off in Canada than in Thailand. You eat a basic meal of meat and rice for 50 cents. I know this because we often send meals out to people on the street through the various vendors around the building.

Most Thai’s do this as a cultural thing. They call it ‘Merit Making’. Feeding the crazy people and poor is a national thing, nothing new. We don’t have that in Canada. I’ve been at eateries where the host will invite a street sweeper or the like to join the table, it’s common practice, again, never see that in Canada.

People who live in glass house shouldn’t throw stones. And BTW, the guy who said that foreigners have no ‘human rights’ in Thailand….that’s just stupid, if anything you receive more protection.

They don’t allow foreigners to buy land here, so WAHHHHH, is that such a bad thing? Look at what foreign ownership has done to property values in Vancouver and TO. Long Live the King, it’s a happy fun place to live.

#321 Daisy Mae on 01.17.16 at 10:47 am

#239: “Since T2 took office the currency has collapsed. That’s what Garth’s post mentioned. Money is flowing out of the country because of T2’s policies. Stop trying to put Revlon on the animal’s lips.”

*********************

Trudeau is not responsible for the collapse of the loonie. Get a grip. Aside from the slow USA recovery, please name one global economy presently in good shape.

America. — Garth

#322 For those about to flop... on 01.17.16 at 10:51 am

Without voting you lose the right to comment. — Garth

///////////////////////////////
In Australia ,where I am from it is mandatory to vote ,in Canada it is not.
In the last election I could not decide ,it was my right to abstain.

M41BC

Of course you can give up the right to participate, but you equally lose the right to complain. Or at least to be taken seriously. — Garth

#323 unbalanced on 01.17.16 at 10:59 am

To James @ # 314. He can’t go away as he has no friends. Thats why he comes here to stir S#$@ and stuff. I don’t know or care what he has said. I just scroll by his name. They have no life. So sad.

#324 For those about to flop... on 01.17.16 at 11:00 am

Of course you can give up the right to participate, but you equally lose the right to complain. Or at least to be taken seriously. — Garth

//////////////////////////////////////

Voting in Canada….not mandatory.
Complaining in Canada….mandatory!

M41BC

#325 MF on 01.17.16 at 11:12 am

#320 serge nevsky on 01.17.16 at 10:40 am

I’m not using Canada as an example. Canada is a developed country. Thailand is a developing country. The boom busts are pretty painful in developing countries. I’m glad there has not been an armed uprising in 5 years.

And lol at on one hand calling the tourists “sludge”, and then talking about how Americans and Europeans are taking advantage of strong currencies to come visit. Which side are you on?

Sounds like your 100k/year depends on the idea that Thailand is booming so more sludge come in and spend pounds euros and dollars.

MF

#326 Nanaimo Bar on 01.17.16 at 11:17 am

What a brilliant move. Three way deal with the French. Persian juicy stuff not pegged to USD. Gotta luv bartering.

#327 Fine wild roasted gonads on 01.17.16 at 11:23 am

#312 gut check on 01.17.16 at 8:04 am
@ #306 Smoking Man on 01.16.16 at 11:51 pm

Been vegging on the couch. Watching movies. Saw the Martian, same Cultural Marxism at work

***************************

You are so right. It was difficult to watch the whole thing as my mind kept mentally rejecting the subtext. It was like watching an extended ad for Science ™ and glib horsesh!t politics.

I was just trying to figure how there was such a big storm on a planet with so little atmosphere..

How about mad max?

#328 Smoking Man on 01.17.16 at 11:24 am

#314 james on 01.17.16 at 8:47 am
#306 Smoking Emasculated Turd

Holly crap, after the drunk up last night and with 12 hours’ sleep, I drove home probably drunk.

—————————————————-

You are a lying, fraudulent piece of shit. And proud to be a drunk driver. Like your idiot loser supporters will cheer you on.

To those people, give your heads a shake.

A narcissistic, unoriginal douchebag like you is a cancer on humanity.

Today you force me to think again of the family members I have lost to drunk drivers, and the stupid selfishness of those who caused their deaths.

You are a complete ass. Go away idiot.
…..

Lets put on some skates and talk about this like real canadian men.

Starbucks boy.

#329 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.17.16 at 11:36 am

#300
Suppose that Poloz person will say: Why don’t yas not eat fresh fruits and veggies for a year?
————-
or he may go with the old: “Let them eat cake” quote, because the peasants have enough fruits and veggies to sustain them.
And unpasturized milk, too.

#330 Paul on 01.17.16 at 11:36 am

DELETED

#331 Paul on 01.17.16 at 11:48 am

Well at least we know where Justin is!

Meeting with laid off worker No, The Provincial Governments do discuss housing issues NO, Heads of corporations to discuss business issues No, The Bank to talk about the economy and interest rates NO.
Oh he he is.

http://www.thepeterboroughexaminer.com/2016/01/16/trudeau-to-visit-peterborough-mosque-sunday

#332 Paul on 01.17.16 at 12:11 pm

#330 Paul on 01.17.16 at 11:36 am

DELETED
————————————————————-
I guess I was a little harsh on Daisy Mae.
But sometimes she asks for it.

#333 kommykim on 01.17.16 at 1:20 pm

DELETED

#334 jess on 01.17.16 at 1:27 pm

” In today’s actions, the SEC alleged that between 2010 and 2014 the 36 firms violated federal securities laws by selling municipal bonds using offering documents that contained materially false statements or omissions about the bond issuers’ compliance with continuing disclosure obligations. The underwriting firms also allegedly failed to conduct adequate due diligence to identify the misstatements and omissions before offering and selling the bonds to their customers.

“The MCDC initiative highlights the importance of continuing disclosure in the municipal bond market and due diligence in the underwriting process,” said Andrew J. Ceresney, Director of the SEC’s Enforcement Division. “The initiative has brought much needed attention to these issues and has already improved the behavior of participants in the $3.7 trillion municipal bond market.”

Continuing disclosure provides municipal bond investors with information, including annual financial reports, on an ongoing basis. The SEC’s 2012 Municipal Market Report identified issuers’ failure to comply with their continuing disclosure obligations as a major challenge for investors seeking information about their municipal bond holdings

========================================
Q: What about Detroit’s water, sewer and other essential services bonds?
https://www.pimco.com/insights/viewpoints/viewpoints/after-detroit-rigorous-research-and-credit-selection-is-the-key-to-investing-in-municipal-bonds
holdouts?
http://www.freep.com/article/20140911/NEWS01/309110056/Detroit-bankruptcy-Syncora-FGIC
====
Enforcement
SEC Charges Bank, Others In Pay-to-Play Scheme Over Ohio Public Pension Funds
by Jack Casey
JAN 14, 2016 5:07pm E
http://www.bondbuyer.com/news/washington-enforcement/sec-charges-bank-others-in-pay-to-play-scheme-1094013-1.html

#335 Knuckle dragger on 01.17.16 at 1:29 pm

Joke for Smoke Man.
What’s the first thing that goes through a mountain climbers mind when he falls off a cliff?

The ground!

That one always kills me….

Knuckles.

#336 DON on 01.17.16 at 1:32 pm

#238 MF on 01.16.16 at 2:58 pm

#233 Daisy Mae on 01.16.16 at 2:15 pm

Yes it is. No he doesn’t.

Feels like no one is flying the plane.

You still blame Harper? Get a life. Your posts are 90% propaganda for the Liberal idiot ruining the country.

MF
#239 MF on 01.16.16 at 3:01 pm

#233 Daisy Mae on 01.16.16 at 2:15 pm

Since T2 took office the currency has collapsed. That’s what Garth’s post mentioned. Money is flowing out of the country because of T2’s policies. Stop trying to put Revlon on the animal’s lips.

MF

***************************************
Your logic is somewhat flawed and driven by an ideological point of view. (on this issue that is)

The currency and economy were failing/falling under the former incompetent entitled power broker. To think that the election of a new entitled power broker should automatically right the ship is not possible given the global outlook. Our economy should have been diversified and balanced in such a manner as our blog hosts suggests. This political us/them thing is pointless and only those vested in political interests win. Money started to flow out of Canada a long time ago – you are just witnessing the middle of the race so to speak.

Like every bitch’en drunkfest we must now endure the hangover.

M44BC

If things get worse…the millennials will vote in the Federal NDP it’s all about hope and not about real change. Real change will happen on it’s own and will force itself on politicians. I did not vote for T2 but knew he would come up the middle and take the prize (my past blog posts).

To answer your initial question, the plane has been on an ideological autopilot since the early 2000’s – perhaps even the early 80’s

#337 apoliticalidiot on 01.17.16 at 1:38 pm

Can we petition the Queen or Governor General to remove Trudy, have a non confidence vote anything?

#338 Daisy Mae on 01.17.16 at 1:45 pm

#321: “Trudeau is not responsible for the collapse of the loonie. Get a grip. Aside from the slow USA recovery, please name one global economy presently in good shape.

America. — Garth”

****************

I did mention America, aka USA.

#339 Leo Trollstoy on 01.17.16 at 1:56 pm

In a country where everything starts to go up in price….imagine that! Inflation finally arrives

yup. lots of blog dogs saw inflation coming and now it’s here. what can u expect when we import so much from the south?

#340 mark on 01.17.16 at 2:02 pm

ZPR rate reset etf loses another 3%
From $15 to $8.60 you better be holding for the next 20 years so the dividend you collect MAY off set your loses.
This fund has never returned a positive return on any year it has run.

#341 BS on 01.17.16 at 2:02 pm

Daisy Mae on 01.17.16 at 10:47 am
#239: “Since T2 took office the currency has collapsed. That’s what Garth’s post mentioned. Money is flowing out of the country because of T2’s policies. Stop trying to put Revlon on the animal’s lips.”

*********************

Trudeau is not responsible for the collapse of the loonie. Get a grip. Aside from the slow USA recovery, please name one global economy presently in good shape.

The loonie has fallen more than any other currency under T2. The TSX looks like an emerging market index under T2. In comparison Canada was the envy of the world in 2008/2009 under Harper during a much worse crisis.

The issue isn’t who’s fault it is. The issue is what the PM does about it. Currently T2 has gone to Paris to ‘fight’ climate change with 200 bureaucrats, given $4 billion to third world nations, expedited 40,000 refugees into Canada at cost of billions and then gone on vacation for 10 days after being in office only a few weeks costing millions in tax payer dollars. T2 so far is a big failure and has done zero to mitigate the oil and CAD crisis yet he has plenty of time and tax dollars to do other things which do not benefit Canadians. Putin would be doing a better job. Too bad he wasn’t on the ballet for you to vote for.

#342 mark on 01.17.16 at 2:03 pm

ZPR link info @

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/summary/?q=ZPR-T

#343 salonist on 01.17.16 at 2:15 pm

2014
didn’t poloz say,you recent university/college graduates and you recent university/college students about to graduate.
go volunteer,do an unpaid internship,go do something, cause there are no jobs for you and no new jobs for you for probably the next 3 years.

read there are 26,000 applications for first year admission, fall 2016…..york university

my daughter went back for another post graduate certificate. a good many of her classmates have already
graduated from law school and did not article and have decided the days of being a lawyer and the monies that accompany that position are no longer.

#344 Daisy Mae on 01.17.16 at 2:16 pm

#330 Paul on 01.17.16 at 11:36 am

DELETED
————————————————————-
I guess I was a little harsh on Daisy Mae.
But sometimes she asks for it.

******************

You know what, Paul? We are all entitled to voice our opinions, and some of us disagree with others. And that’s fine. But we don’t have to resort to rude comments — so bad that we get ‘deleted’.

We come here to hopefully learn….so let’s agree to disagree and call it a day.

The world is in lousy shape and tempers are short.

#345 Daisy Mae on 01.17.16 at 2:30 pm

#341: “T2 has gone to Paris to ‘fight’ climate change with 200 bureaucrats, given $4 billion to third world nations, expedited 40,000 refugees into Canada at cost of billions…”

********************

I concur. As the older generation used to say: “We’re going to hell in a hand basket.” Some things never change. All politicians are lousy — no exception. What are you going to do about it?

#346 Tony on 01.17.16 at 2:32 pm

Re: #314 james on 01.17.16 at 8:47 am

Where I live I’d prefer drunk drivers on the road rather than what it’s like now. You have to acquire defensive driving skills like never driving alongside a car because lines on the road mean nothing. Always watch out for everyone making a right-hand turn on a red light without stopping. Blowing through all the stop signs, stopping in the middle of the street for no apparent reason. Driving at less than half the posted speed limit without any traffic. Next to no one signals when making a turn. Less than one in a thousand signal a lane change but no one speeds.

#347 Nagraj on 01.17.16 at 2:38 pm

Did the WOLF strangle LITTLE RED RIDING HOOD’s grandma first, and then undress her and eat her?
Or did he just rip her nightgown and nightcap off – she musta screamed and struggled against such forced disrobing – and then eat her?
And when did the wolf put on granny’s nightgown and nightcap, after or before he ate her?
Don’t you people ever think about these things?

(And wouldn’t grandma’s pretty floral flannelette print nightgown have been a little too uncomfortably tight for the big bad wolf?) (You don’t suppose he had latent deviant . . . )

If you’re not willing to entertain such questions, how can you possibly analyze stocks or the stock mkt which is full of wolves and other rapacious canine sorts. like hyenas and dingoes. (See “The Wolf of Wall Street” for example.)

More to the point: did he really WANT to eat skinny ailing grandma, or did he just want to get her nightclothes so’s he could trick the juicier granddaugter into his ravenous maw?

When vampire squidly types advise stockholders to unburden themselves of stocks – as we’ve seen lately – wouldn’t they already be loaded up with shorts themselves? Are they getting impatient for you to sell?
[Seems to me that maybe you shoulda sold EVERYTHING before Xmas (unless you have the patience of Job, which, sadly, I myself don’t.] [Next week’s theme song: “Lead, kindly light, amid th’encircling gloom . . . ]

And what about the wine? You’d think that a fine talking wolf would’ve found himself a long-stemmed glass, or do you suppose he guzzled it right outa the bottle?

Cheers.

#348 kommykim on 01.17.16 at 2:46 pm

RE:

#333 kommykim on 01.17.16 at 1:20 pm
DELETED

I guess the profanity in the “Team America: World Police” theme song was too much for this blog’s host.

#349 Nanaimo Bar on 01.17.16 at 2:47 pm

#347 Nagraj

That is what keeps us here. If you knew the end score, would you be interested in the game?

#350 BS on 01.17.16 at 3:00 pm

Daisy Mae on 01.17.16 at 2:16 pm
#330 Paul on 01.17.16 at 11:36 am

DELETED
————————————————————-
I guess I was a little harsh on Daisy Mae.
But sometimes she asks for it.

******************

You know what, Paul? We are all entitled to voice our opinions, and some of us disagree with others. And that’s fine. But we don’t have to resort to rude comments

Kettle meet the pot.

Daisy Mae on 01.17.16 at 10:05 am
#301: “By that logic Kim Jong Un or Putin would have gotten your vote. Sad.”

********************

Has anyone reminded you lately that you’re a complete jerk?

#351 espressobob on 01.17.16 at 3:01 pm

#313 IRent

Anytime is a good time to buy, if your in it for the long term. DCA (dollar cost averaging) into the markets might make you feel better, but timing is pointless.

Try not to fixate on the TSX. Think global.

#352 Ronaldo on 01.17.16 at 3:01 pm

#346 Tony on 01.17.16 at 2:32 pm
Re: #314 james on 01.17.16 at 8:47 am

”Where I live I’d prefer drunk drivers on the road rather than what it’s like now. You have to acquire defensive driving skills like never driving alongside a car because lines on the road mean nothing. Always watch out for everyone making a right-hand turn on a red light without stopping. Blowing through all the stop signs, stopping in the middle of the street for no apparent reason. Driving at less than half the posted speed limit without any traffic. Next to no one signals when making a turn. Less than one in a thousand signal a lane change but no one speeds.”

And you can add to your list. 99% of people do not know how to make a left hand turn on a green light.

#353 BS on 01.17.16 at 3:03 pm

Daisy Mae on 01.17.16 at 2:30 pm
#341: “T2 has gone to Paris to ‘fight’ climate change with 200 bureaucrats, given $4 billion to third world nations, expedited 40,000 refugees into Canada at cost of billions…”

********************

I concur. As the older generation used to say: “We’re going to hell in a hand basket.” Some things never change. All politicians are lousy — no exception. What are you going to do about it?

Vote for the best of all the choices. That was not T2 or the Liberals as we can clearly see. Unless you happen to be a third world dictator about to receive the billions.

#354 Herb on 01.17.16 at 3:15 pm

#341 BS,

nomen est omen is a Latin proverb to the effect that the name signifies the substance.

Considering the selective propaganda BS you post here, you could not have picked a more appropriate handle!

#355 Paul on 01.17.16 at 3:22 pm

#344 Daisy Mae on 01.17.16 at 2:16 pm

#330 Paul on 01.17.16 at 11:36 am

DELETED
————————————————————-
I guess I was a little harsh on Daisy Mae.
But sometimes she asks for it.

******************

You know what, Paul? We are all entitled to voice our opinions, and some of us disagree with others. And that’s fine. But we don’t have to resort to rude comments — so bad that we get ‘deleted’.

We come here to hopefully learn….so let’s agree to disagree and call it a day.

The world is in lousy shape and tempers are short.
———————————————————-
I didn’t think my comment we rude.
Garth did, actually it may have been spot on but alas we will never Know.

#356 Brazil ex-pat on 01.17.16 at 3:23 pm

#242 Ronaldo on 01.16.16 at 3:23 pm
#214 – Brazil ex-pat

”There are no options in frozen Canada. Everyone here thinks the global warming thing is hilarious”

The new term is “climate change”

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Try saying “mudança climática” in Brazil or anywhere outside N. America and everyone laughs at how dumb and brainwashed all the westerners are……

#357 For those about to flop... on 01.17.16 at 3:30 pm

#72 Daisy Mae on 01.12.16 at 7:41 pm
#32: “It’s a sad day for all the “firsters” when they get beat by a guy who types like a chicken ,aka Tommy Two Fingers…

**************

You’re a complete ass….

//////////////////////////////
Hey BS ,check out this exchange I was called out for mocking my own typing skills…

M41BC

#358 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 01.17.16 at 3:35 pm

“The loser’s credo, embraced by the young: ‘It’s different this time.’ Until human nature changes, it’s not. — Garth”

Now now, no need to cast aspersions!

Agreed it is not different this time. (Except negative interest rates in Europe, and helicopter money in Norway and Australia). Not sure if YVR every had a real estate bubble before, although GTA certainly saw high valuations that got corrected.

Anyway, it is similar to 1937 at least with the QE and the extremely low yields.

Hopefully, it is different this time with the credut cycle continuiing happily along and fiat currencies surviving until the end of time. The only constant was gold for 5000 years. That became different in 1972.

#359 Harbour on 01.17.16 at 3:37 pm

That a boy Poloz, lower rates some more so our peso can break .60 cents.

We understand, Mickey Millenio has to qualify for a mortgage on that $500K shoebox

#360 The Watcher on 01.17.16 at 3:46 pm

T2 made it clear before the Elections that he was going to waste money on climate change and foreigners. We all knew that he was not fiscally responsible. All who voted for him voted for a big pain in the a$$ to come. Now we all have to learn to live with him or die with or without him in case he ruins this country. Few will be able to eat when the Dolarette becomes a mini-Dolarette of 2 cents to the US Dollar.

#361 AfterTheHouseSold on 01.17.16 at 4:09 pm

#335 Knuckle dragger
“Joke for Smoke Man”

Knuckle dragger indeed.
Disgusting.

#362 espressobob on 01.17.16 at 4:28 pm

#358 ROCK BEATS PAPER

Something of interest.

http://www.businessinsider.com/long-term-gold-chart-going-back-to-1792-2013-4

Compared with this,

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices

And this one generates yield.

#363 Daisy Mae on 01.17.16 at 7:06 pm

#353: “Vote for the best of all the choices. That was not T2 or the Liberals as we can clearly see….”

********************

It would appear your vote was not the popular vote.

#364 Daisy Mae on 01.17.16 at 7:22 pm

#355: “I didn’t think my comment we rude. Garth did, actually it may have been spot on but alas we will never Know.”

****************

It was, undoubtedly, disrespectful. And that’s not cool.

#365 espressobob on 01.17.16 at 9:38 pm

#364 Daisy Mae

For what it’s worth, I enjoy your posts.

#366 Centre Wing on 01.18.16 at 3:47 pm

Just saw a story on the G&M suggesting looking at a 1 year mortgage. That can’t possibly be good advice, can it? I’m up for renewal in a year, which means I could potentially hold my new rate in 8 months. My first term (as a first timer) was 5 year fixed on a 25 year amort.