Veggie nation

SENIORS modified

“On January 4,” says Fay (who rudely, but alluringly calls herself a Blogbitch©), “you talked about $6 cauliflower. Well, I was at a Safeway in Calgary today, and we’re already up to $7.00 a head for cauliflower. Photos attached. Feel free to share.”

I will. Here ya go. And before gazing at the magnificence of these buxom veggies, reflect on what Bank of Canada boss Stephen Poloz said in a speech this week: yes, he admitted, the dollar sucks and so does the economy. But get used to it. There’s more to come. “The forces that have been set in motion simply must work themselves out,” he added. Like with seven-dollar – which I heard even spiked to eight bucks in Ottawa last week, down the road from where the Poloz limo pulls in each day.

CAULIFLOWER 2 modified modified

So what are the feds telling us?

Three things. First, inflation’s about to flare and the central bank will not be reacting. So suck it up, beavers. Second, the loonie is almost surely going lower than its current 70.68 cents US. Soon. And third, get ready for another interest rate cut – maybe even as early as Wednesday, January 20th. And what an admission of failure that will be.

Now, understand the context of all this.

The US is, relative to us, killing it. The jobs report out Friday morning showed an astonishing 292,000 new positions created in December, and an improved and restated total for November. This was better than the most optimistic economists had projected and clearly shows the American economy has been (so far) unaffected by an interest rate hike, a stronger dollar, stock market wigglies or global headwinds.

The US jobless rate is down to 5% and holding, despite a big influx of people into the workforce. That’s the lowest level of unemployment since the financial crisis. The report also showed wages have been on the move – now sharply higher than a year ago and rising at an annual rate of 2.5% in the fourth quarter of the year. This means more consumer spending (US car and truck sales just broke a record), leading to higher prices and more inflation. Plus more interest rate increases.

“With the Fed feeling confirmed in its baseline scenario,” Commerzbank economist Chris Balz told Reuters, “the next rate increase is only a matter of time. We expect the Fed to move at the March meeting.”

In fact, unless something unforeseen happens, four rate increase in the US are on the table for 2016, adding a full 1% to the funds rate. Markets are suddenly giving 52% odds for a rate hike in a couple of months, with more to follow, simply because more people working making better money means growth, inflation and a return to normalcy.

At least there. Canada? Meh.

On Friday West Texas oil fell to a 12-year low of just under $33 a barrel. That’s awful. Momentum is negative as the world swims in surplus crude. But the stuff Canada produces – called Western Canadian Select – is totally unloved, and now the world’s cheapest oil. A barrel of that is worth about nineteen dollars US, the lowest since prices were first recorded eight years ago. This oil is below “shut-in prices” which means anyone fool enough to dig it up and ship it will lose money. If exports did not get paid for in US$ while workers were sent home with C$, Alberta would be empty.

BEAVER OIL

No wonder 40,000 workers are out of a paycheque and capital expenditures are set to plunge again. No wonder our trade with the world is in deficit, that our economy may be entering recession and Stevie Poloz regrets ever taking this job. He shocked markets a year ago by cutting rates as oil started to cascade lower. Many believe he’s about to do it again.

Capital Economics’ David Madani has been beating this drum for a while, and how has a chorus around him, with the latest oil mess – and despite stronger job numbers in Canada (+22,000).

“The drop in oil since October represents a negative shock similar in percentage terms to the shock that prompted the Bank to first cut rates in January last year. This time around, the situation feels even more grim, as fears of a slowing China economy have seen prices of many non-energy commodities fall, even after adjusting for the weaker Canadian dollar,” he says.

Factor in higher mortgage rates (thanks to the US Fed – it’s already started, as of Friday), plus the higher down payment rules coming next month, and Poloz knows the housing-oil punch will further weaken the economy. His only weapon is another rate plop – realizing full well it will sacrifice the currency and send veggies into orbit.

“There is a good chance that this rate cut could come later this month, to 0.25% from 0.50%,” adds Madani. “If not this month, then by April at the latest. Either way, we think markets might be in for another surprise.”

You know what to do. Hoard cauliflower!

310 comments ↓

#1 ShawnG in TO on 01.08.16 at 5:44 pm

third!

#2 Canadian on 01.08.16 at 5:46 pm

I can’t help but feel like the Canadian economy suffered from the loss of Art Carney. Not that I was surprised he was poached, most of our best and brightest are.

#3 Canadian on 01.08.16 at 5:47 pm

Whoops! Mark Carney! Silly autocrrect…

#4 SunShowers on 01.08.16 at 5:49 pm

In the 40s, they were called Victory Gardens.

What should we call them now?

#5 Lost in Space on 01.08.16 at 5:49 pm

Recommended Resources
Canadian Money Saver Magazine

Canadian Couch Potato

Canadian Money Forum

My Own Advisor

Mr Money Mustache

Garths’ Investment Posts

Most people, of course, simply don’t understand how they’re taxed or what to do to minimize the impact. They also don’t realize how the tax system is skewed to ensuring the rich stay that way.

RRSP basics

How to structure RSP with SAHM

TFSA basics</a

RESP</a

Taxation</a

Taxation of an RRSP </a

More Taxation of an RRSP</a

Taxes and Income Spliting</a

#6 ShawnG in TO on 01.08.16 at 5:50 pm

too late to hoard the expensive cauliflowers
it’s better to hoard tv and cars, since they were ordered in the retail channel when Canadian dollar actually worth something
play arbitrage!

#7 Cauliflower Baron on 01.08.16 at 5:52 pm

I feel like it’s my time to shine.

#8 Wayne2yergarth on 01.08.16 at 5:53 pm

Love me a good doom blog,

nothing like a little negative nelly nit picking to get
my weekend going,

so what if the veggies are going up in price,
in Vancouver you can get 1% APR on a new slapchop

#9 Apocalypse2016 on 01.08.16 at 5:54 pm

And those Canadian jobs numbers are hiding a terrible truth. Losses of full time jobs, and an explosion of “self-employed”. Yeah right. I am “self-employed” as a poster on this blog.

Canada is rapidly heading for an economic catastrophe. The coming rate cut will lead to the final explosion of idiots buying real estate this winter. The wheels totally come off in the spring, and the job cuts here will take your breath away.

#10 ForeBiz on 01.08.16 at 5:55 pm

Cauliflower is gross

#11 Robert on 01.08.16 at 5:56 pm

Michael Belkin quote!

And markets will tend to revert to their long-term averages in bear markets. How far down is that? That’s the 200-month average. The 200-month average is where the Nasdaq went in 2009, and also in the tech crash in 2002.

So how far down is that? Down 50 percent. The Nasdaq could be cut in half. For Apple, it’s down 65 percent — that’s where the 200-month average is. For the DAX, the German stock market, down 37 percent. For the FTSE Mid-Cap Index, which is the benchmark for the hedge funds over there in London, down over 43 percent. For the Nikkei, down 38 percent. For the S&P, down 32 percent.

So basically a 35 – 50 percent downside risk (in global markets) over 12 – 18 months. That would be a normal bear market collapse where things go back to a mean and you turn into a buyer. I am not a perma-bear. I was incredibly bullish at the 2009 bottom. At that bottom I was saying the exact opposite of what I’m saying now. I was saying, ‘Buy financials, buy techs.’ That was what I was telling institutional investors back then.

Now I’m saying the exact opposite, ‘Sell techs, sell rallies, sell stock indexes, be short, don’t be long. Own Treasuries, gold, and be as defensive as you can. There is very little safe ground here. It’s like you’re in the middle of quicksand and you are looking for something to stand on while everybody else is sinking around you. And unfortunately most institutions are not positioned correctly. The next 12 – 18 months are going to be a real shakeout.

Belkin predicted a 40% market drop in 2012, before it soared. — Garth

#12 S.Bby on 01.08.16 at 5:58 pm

It’s a good thing I don’t like cauliflower.

#13 TurnerNation on 01.08.16 at 5:58 pm

Long weekend read. Prof rips university education open.

https://lareviewofbooks.org/essay/dear-parents-everything-you-need-to-know-about-your-son-and-daughters-university-but-dont

#14 Freeman on 01.08.16 at 5:58 pm

All of the job gains were in Health Care and Education.

So no problem, all we have to do is train those laid off oil workers to be Nurses and Teachers and the problem is solved.

#15 not 1st on 01.08.16 at 5:58 pm

Ive been ready all day to take on that jobs report.

First of all, its all service sector hires and has been for the past 2 years.

http://www.businessinsider.com/mining-and-logging-losing-jobs-2016-1

Only 16,000 jobs out of the report went to people in the age bracket 24-55, you know people looking for full time work because they have bills to pay. The rest went to the other age brackets indicating a lot of part time hires.

So Garth, again you just cheerleaded a jobs report that has no manufacturing gains and it all part time hires in the service sector. Good oil patch jobs in ND and TX were replaced with dog walkers and uber drivers.

And now that QE is gone, Wall Street actually looked into the report this time and were less than impressed. Dow still sold off.

The Dow is off because rates will rise. A job is a job is a job. And you’re still wrong. — Garth

#16 Fed-up on 01.08.16 at 6:03 pm

Soon the Craptors will be paying a 50% premium on insanely overcompensated basketball players.

All the more reason they, along with the Jays, should fold and move elsewhere :p

#17 Retired Boomer WI on 01.08.16 at 6:03 pm

Another open day on Wall St. -another plop!

This is becoming, shall we say, habit forming. We know the markets will eventually turn over they always do! It is almost time for some bottom fishing, me I bought some oil ETF that plopped to a low 2.68 a share, I bought at 2.72 so almost the bottom… for now at least.

I’ll have to check cauliflower at the local store, but at the price shown in your picture, I’d rather buy a quart of good booze for a buck more. Lasts more than a single meal, too.

Garth, hope you weren’t spending all day with panicked clients, but it would seem that is a regular advisor’s role when markets have a run of pissy days.

Watched CNBC just long enough to see some jerk say, “This looks like 2008 part two” os something similar.

Who knows, but it will not last forever, it will just feel like it.

#18 Doug t on 01.08.16 at 6:03 pm

We are experiencing a number of forces converging – boomer generation that lived in a credit world for decades and now ending – commodities supercycle ending and not coming back for several decades – China’s shadow banking system exploding – canada has been lazy and not diversifying- it’s going to be bloody different days ahead for at least 5 years

#19 Michael King on 01.08.16 at 6:06 pm

Writing from Vancouver. Asparagus @ $9.99/lb on the West 4th Avenue High Street.

#20 TRT on 01.08.16 at 6:06 pm

I’m cheering this rise in vegetable prices. Cheering the rise in all prices. (Isnt this what homeowers do?) This is where we get to see who is naked when the tide goes out.

At the same time, Im cheering that we aw the highest per capita intake country of inmigration in the world. Will keep wages in Canadian dollars in check.

As Ive been beating a deadhorse here the last few years, i urged everyone to get their $ out of Canadian Dollars. But was ridiculed.

You will see ZERO rates in Canada this year. No QE since housing is sustained by foreign capital inflows. Also a low 60 cent loonie is possible.

The Big Wildcard is if professionals who qualify under the TN visa will head south in droves. What? 3 year wait to see a cardiologist? Haha

I may be posting from SoCal in the near future.

#21 zee on 01.08.16 at 6:06 pm

Hey Garth

You are way too biased towards America.

Canada posted record number of jobs in 2015 even with its oil crisis and you have never acknowledge this fact. Why

#22 Bgs906 on 01.08.16 at 6:07 pm

Been walking the beaches and enjoying the fine weather in southern Mexico for a couple of months. I can get 7 heads of cauliflower for 7 bucks and beers 85 cents a can at the Super Che.
Enjoy life where ever you choose to live !!

#23 Fleurdelys on 01.08.16 at 6:07 pm

S&p 500 is going down. I m buying.

#24 maya on 01.08.16 at 6:07 pm

Last week i checked cauliflower in superstore in surrey and it was $7.99. I am on low carb and high fat diet and use caulifower to substitute mash patotoes. All veges have doubles. So difficult to eat healthy with these prices. I am not sure where to cut other expenses.

#25 Nanaimo Bar on 01.08.16 at 6:08 pm

Great article. Kinda weird considering I had this question before I read your article and you answered my question. But here it goes anyway.

Inflation

The one thing is that I do not understand is about the Bank of Canada and inflation.
The Bank of Canada states that inflation is their number one concern going forward. If the Canadian dollar keeps dropping, it will be the Canadian businesses who import that will be the ones losing money. For example, if Canadian Tire imports a wrench from the U.S., they can only charge so much for a wrench. They can’t pass on the cost to the consumer. The consumer will only pay so much for a wrench. The consumer will just say that they do not need the wrench. They will just use their teeth. At what point will the Bank of Canada defend the dollar and the Canadian importer? Or do they care? Does the Bank of Canada just say, “So sad but too bad for you.” So it is the Canadian importer that is being effected by inflation and not only the consumer. Maybe the kid from Cody House has the answer to this question.

#26 Confused on 01.08.16 at 6:10 pm

When a currency is crashing aren’t they supposed to raise rate? We are off 30% in a couple years.

Would lowering rate only add fuel to the real estate fire? Is that all that counts now, keeping house price abnormally elevated?

Is it me or they are just plain stupid??

#27 Mark on 01.08.16 at 6:11 pm

The bigger problem facing Canada today is deflation. Inflation not only not being greater than the Bank of Canada’s target, but actually so far beneath that conventional monetary policy won’t be able to extricate Canada from deflation on account of over-investment in housing and O&G production.

$7 caulliflowers are an aberration caused by opportunistic grocers, not a reflection of the market realities which have most prices falling on most goods of fhe sort. Besides, how many caulliflowers do we really buy? Not many?

The Big Wildcard is if professionals who qualify under the TN visa will head south in droves.

Doubtful. Imports using the H-1B visa have largely supplanted the TN. Its cheaper to import people from India than it is from Canada. Canadians have been largely locked out of the US for quite a while now.

#28 Adam on 01.08.16 at 6:11 pm

#2 Canadian

You poor pathetic fool. Carney had at least as big a hand, and probably bigger, than Poloz in making this mess. Nobody couldn’t have caused oil to crater except the Saudis, but Carney’s emergency rate policy far after Canada had been bombarded by massive federal deficit money and was feeling perky again was a very large contributing factor to the fact that Canadians are carrying the highest debt ever.

Remember when Carney (I believe it was during the London Olympics) said on television that he would never consider leaving for the BoE job when asked directly? Some 7 months later he announced he was leaving for just that and less than a year later he was gone. I would be quite happy if his citizenship was revoked, personally.

#29 Nanaimo Bar on 01.08.16 at 6:13 pm

Fed members for 2016

Below is the list of the 17 members of the Federal Open Market Committee and two potential new members. A dove indicates they’re most inclined toward an easy policy that favors job creation; a hawk shows that they’re on the sharpest lookout for inflation and ready to tighten policy.

Janet Yellen’s public diary shows that she calls each regional Fed president to canvass their views before every meeting.

Janet Yellen – chair – dove -permanent voting status
Stanley Fischer – vice chair -Neutral – permanent voting status
William Dudley – New York Fed Pres -2 doves – permanent voting status
Daniel Tarullo – Governor 2 doves – permanent voting status
Jerome Powell – Governor -neutral – permanent voting status
Lael Brainard – Governor -1 dove – permanent voting status
Charles Evan – Chicago Fed Pres -3 doves – does not vote in 2016
Jeffery Lacker – Richmond Fed Pres – 2 Hawks – does not vote in 2016
Dennis Lockhart – Atlanta Fed Pres -neutral – does not vote in 2016
John Williams – San Francisco Fed Pres – neutral – does not vote in 2016
Loretta Mester – Cleveland Fed Pres1 hawk – votes in 2016
Eric Rosengren – Boston Fed Pres – 2 doves – votes in 2016
James Bullard – St Louis Fed Pres -1 hawk – votes in 2016
Esther George – Kansas Fed Pres – 2 Hawks – votes in 2016
Narayana Kocherlakota – Minneapolis Fed Pres – 3 doves – does not vote in 2016
Patrick Harker – Philadelphia Fed Pres – unknown – does not vote in 2016
Robert Kaplan – Dallas Fed Pres -unknown – voting status is unknown
Allan Landon – Governor -unknown – voting status in unknown
Kathryn Dominguez – Governor – unknown – does not vote in 2016

This Is the Fed’s Hawk-to-Dove Scorecard
By Christopher Condon, Jeanna Smialek
http://bloom.bg/1KKEffL
Bloomberg

#30 Canadian on 01.08.16 at 6:14 pm

#23 Adam on 01.08.16 at 6:11 pm

Tip for next time: If you want to have a discussion, avoid name calling.

#31 old gringo on 01.08.16 at 6:17 pm

Lets check what fresh cauliflower costs with all the blogdogs.

Here in Mexico, its about 20 pesos or $1.60 CDN.

Also paid 2016 house taxes for $800k CDN house value at 3900 pesos or $312 CDN.

Anyone else care to share?

#32 TRT on 01.08.16 at 6:20 pm

#26 Mark

The Big Wildcard is if professionals who qualify under the TN visa will head south in droves.

Doubtful. Imports using the H-1B visa have largely supplanted the TN. Its cheaper to import people from India than it is from Canada. Canadians have been largely locked out of the US for quite a while now.

———————

Wrong again. Last time to point it out to you.

Doctors, Dentists, Physiotherapists, Nurses, Architects, etc. From Canada can easily practice in the USA. Good luck if youre from a third world countey and want to practice there.

I suggest you post only on topics you are familiar about.

#33 dosouth on 01.08.16 at 6:21 pm

Maybe we are ahead of the sheeple not on this blog. Does anyone here think that the bleating of the gov’t that 23,000 more jobs created in December changes anything?

Yeah, yeah during the Christmas season. Temp jobs in the post office, any retail business and probably the delivery companies. Just like the bleating in Oct when jobs were up during the elections hiring of temp workers.

Like I have said in my last 8 months of my posts I will bet, besides the upcoming cuts in interest rates we may see and probably will see, negative rates or at the very least 0%.

Wish the media and gov’t would apply the job reports on an earlier overall yearly basis, not minute to minute when it pleases them. (yes I know they do it later in the following year) But then again, maybe no one cares……

#34 Mark on 01.08.16 at 6:25 pm

“When a currency is crashing aren’t they supposed to raise rate? We are off 30% in a couple years.”

CAD$ is only down 1.4% YoY according to StatsCan and CPI.

There is no need to raise policy rates. If anything, the numbers suggest that it is necessary to reduce policy rates to meet the target of a 2% annualized loss of value of the currency.

“Doctors, Dentists, Physiotherapists, Nurses, Architects, etc. From Canada can easily practice in the USA. Good luck if youre from a third world countey and want to practice there. “

You are way too ensconced in the idea that Canadians are preferred over foreigners of other stripes in the USA. I’ll leave it at that (and suggest that you really don’t know what you’re talking about).

Architects, lol.

#35 Pierre on 01.08.16 at 6:26 pm

Overheard yesterday from a colleague that accountants at Suncor a furiously working on revising the 2016 capital budget set up in October… lots more spending cuts coming, along with the associated jobs.

#36 S.Bby on 01.08.16 at 6:27 pm

If Poloz had left rates alone at 1% we’d have lower cauliflower prices with a higher dollar and the rest of the economics would not have changed at all. Lowering the rate was a knee-jerk reaction that really only hurts the majority of Canadians. If he lowers again he is truly certifiably insane.

#37 Mean Gene on 01.08.16 at 6:30 pm

Frozen vegetables until spring time, bleck.

#38 Goldie on 01.08.16 at 6:31 pm

It always amuses me that Garth pretends to be confused as to why this blog attracts so many “doomers”.

Here in the lower mainland of BC, you can now buy local green peppers for almost half the price of the imported ones and local tomatoes are selling so well that stores can’t even keep them in stock. I think there may be some very happy hothouse farmers around here right now.

#39 Smartalox on 01.08.16 at 6:34 pm

Cauliflower at $7 a head, asparagus at $9.99/lb., what you’re paying for is transportation costs, to bring these things from Mexico.

Does anyone remember the days when fruit and vegetables had ‘seasons’? That there were times of the year when local produce was available, and times when it wasn’t?

How oranges in the winter months were considered a rare treat?

Now, since the local farmlands have become residential subdivisions, produce is shipped from faraway lands (with diesel, priced in USD) while the amounts of locally grown produce diminished, limited to the over-adjectived menus of hipster restaurants, and those overpriced farmer’s markets the boomers love so much.

#40 Mike on 01.08.16 at 6:36 pm

$7.00 cauliflower; no “s” folks.
Never buy it anyway; maybe vegans will buy meat; it’s cheaper:)

#41 For those about to flop... on 01.08.16 at 6:40 pm

#32 dosouth on 01.08.16 at 6:21 pm
Maybe we are ahead of the sheeple not on this blog. Does anyone here think that the bleating of the gov’t that 23,000 more jobs created in December changes anything?

Yeah, yeah during the Christmas season. Temp jobs in the post office, any retail business and probably the delivery companies. Just like the bleating in Oct when jobs were up during the elections hiring of temp workers.

Like I have said in my last 8 months of my posts I will bet, besides the upcoming cuts in interest rates we may see and probably will see, negative rates or at the very least 0%.

Wish the media and gov’t would apply the job reports on an earlier overall yearly basis, not minute to minute when it pleases them. (yes I know they do it later in the following year) But then again, maybe no one cares.

//////////////////////////////////////
Yeah I’m sure someone is giddy knowing that they will get to use the 35k temporary Statscan jobs for the Census toward a future jobs report.
These jobs are paying between 16.50 and 19 dollars an hour roughly so I guess they will help some folk out short term.

M41BC

#42 cauliflower, gas, Canada on 01.08.16 at 6:42 pm

Funny place this country, with funny physics:
USD conversion travels faster up (cauliflower) than down (oil).

Stupid Harper, should have supported green plants, instead of dirty oil. Or maybe it’s all the fault of the real estate. Maybe T2’s. Garth will tell us, no doubt. Still charging the same.

#43 Europe is cheaper on 01.08.16 at 6:44 pm

Cauliflower across Europe 1 or max 1.5 Euro depending on size, quality and so on.

Canadians are being hosed. With strong or low Dollar.
What else is new?

#44 Goofy 2 Shoes on 01.08.16 at 6:44 pm

The thing about cauliflower, is it’s always been more expensive. Maybe because it’s a pain to grow – once it starts developing you have to make sure the leaves are wrapped around the head or it will turn a disgusting shade of pink/brown…. and then there are the bug problems.

There are lots of other alternatives that are normally cheaper, how about comparing something more realistic like the cost of carrots, or broccoli, or potatoes or something else that we can get (or grow) locally?

Cauliflower is more of a luxury veg.

#45 Godth on 01.08.16 at 6:54 pm

Build Greenhouses! The Central Valley is screwed and so is your thousands of kms. Caesar salad! Welcome to back to the future suburbanites with useless manicured lawns.

What! We won’t be able to drive our gaspig to WalMart/Costco forever? I really love the urban planning that’s gone on along the 401, btw. Suicide housing complexes augmented with big box retail developments every ten minutes (if traffic is flowing). My father in law hates me mocking this abomination when we visit. I don’t really care, but you couldn’t pay me to live like that. I would find a permanent way out one way or another. These are the dystopian war zones of the present and the future, except they’ll be useless shooting galleries in the near enough future rather than just pathetic cheap oiltopias in the present.

#46 J on 01.08.16 at 6:54 pm

I shall sell all of my real estate to invest in cauliflower farms…..well not really. Those December numbers are Christmas numbers I would think. They are likely to vaporize come the consumer drop off in the winter.

#47 Raising rates on 01.08.16 at 6:54 pm

re #52

Correct, the CB should raise our rates now to protect what value is left of our currency.

Poloz making statements to the contrary is unreasonable and possibly criminal. The mortgage sector and RE is not the end all be all to the welfare of this country.

If there is indeed too much leverage than we need to deflate and deflate in a big way. It will hurt those who have gambled and believed the RE goose will never stop laying golden eggs but so be it dammit!

Canada and Canadians are in for a world of hurt anyway but at least a rate increase would stop the madness of the RE casino markets and level the playing field.

Brazil, Russia and to a larger extent Venezuela have already seen massive losses to their currencies and these countries are barely able to pay their bills and keep the lights on. Aussie and Kiwi are lying to hide their own mess but it will be just as obvious as this train wreck of a Chinese slow down comes crashing into the station.

Poloz mandate should be to preserve and protect our currency before we become the scraps table of the 1% hedgies who will force our hand.

Another option would be to use a peg and eventually just drop the CAD altogether as we realize that the national currency is too expensive to afford when we could be paying in USD and being paid in USD just the same.

#48 mark on 01.08.16 at 6:58 pm

Preferred shares are going to continue there slide, just think maybe they will lose another 26 percent aka BMO zpr rate resets….

#49 IM in C on 01.08.16 at 7:00 pm

You know what to do. Hoard cauliflowers!

It’s cauliflower (singular and plural)

#50 For those about to flop... on 01.08.16 at 7:04 pm

I didn’t even look at my portfolio once this week.
What good would it have done?
I don’t intend to touch any of the money for another 30 years,life might have other ideas…
If the markets were skyrocketing I would still be sitting on the couch with a glass of red wine.
Purely medicinal at this stage…

M41BC

#51 tundra pete on 01.08.16 at 7:05 pm

Great jobs report. Burger flippers and coffee servers, oh yeah, walmart greeters too. Hell, at this rate we should be out of recession by no later than 2035. Thank god T2 and Bill Blair will soon have us all running grow ops in our basements.

GMO cauliflower can be an unknown. Other than its toxins, dioxins and heavy metals, no one is really sure whats in it anyway. You could opt for the “organic” brand but it comes in on the same truck. Best using the money on heirloom seeds and growing your own come spring.

#52 Godth on 01.08.16 at 7:07 pm

#19 Michael King on 01.08.16 at 6:06 pm

Umm, it’s January dude. Local Asparagus is a spring crop…why do you think you deserve cheap out of season produce all tear long? That’s not the way the world has ever really worked. Ugh, people are really out to lunch – the future is going to be scary.

#53 conan on 01.08.16 at 7:08 pm

I paid four bucks for celery this week. No hesitation since celery is a rock and roll vegetable that lasts a longtime in the fridge.

#54 Derek R on 01.08.16 at 7:09 pm

#23 maya on 01.08.16 at 6:07 pm wrote:
Last week i checked cauliflower in superstore in surrey and it was $7.99

Hmmm, at those prices how long before the local grow-ops switch from weed to cauli?

#55 HAM R Us on 01.08.16 at 7:14 pm

AS long as all three levels of governments are still expanding, which they are, do not expect real estate correction. Period!

#56 Sheane Wallace on 01.08.16 at 7:15 pm

Absolutely fantastic post today.

I have been speaking about the demise of the CAD for quite some time.

Retirees and people on fixed income will be literally obliterated.

Inflation would be horrific/it already is (cauliflower at 7 bucks!)

Only an idiot would keep any CAD or buy CAD denominated bonds.

Poloz is a complete disgrace, he should resign. If the incompetent reduces the rate again Loonie is going to low .60 in few months, this year we could see it in .5x range

#57 Sheane Wallace on 01.08.16 at 7:18 pm

#34 mark

You are VERY stupid, preferred will keep their value in a market slowdown better.

#58 Quebec is Great on 01.08.16 at 7:19 pm

Pleasantly surprised! I was expecting some doomer to break down the US job numbers and turn it into negative news… It took 15 posts before a twit showed up – I was expecting it in the first 5. Maybe the doomer ranks are leaving (or giving up) :)

#59 Steerage Bilge on 01.08.16 at 7:23 pm

#39 Godth on 01.08.16 at 6:54 pm

Build Greenhouses! The Central Valley is screwed and so is your thousands of kms. Caesar salad! Welcome to back to the future suburbanites with useless manicured lawns.

What! We won’t be able to drive our gaspig to WalMart/Costco forever? I really love the urban planning that’s gone on along the 401, btw. Suicide housing complexes augmented with big box retail developments every ten minutes (if traffic is flowing). My father in law hates me mocking this abomination when we visit. I don’t really care, but you couldn’t pay me to live like that. I would find a permanent way out one way or another. These are the dystopian war zones of the present and the future, except they’ll be useless shooting galleries in the near enough future rather than just pathetic cheap oiltopias in the present.
————
Could you try and tone it down a tad..bit too much happy juice over the holidays…. that is just way too upbeat.!

#60 Gainsaywhodare on 01.08.16 at 7:26 pm

Realtors have the HPI. Greater fools now have the CI (Cauliflower Index). Can someone start tracking?

#61 Sheane Wallace on 01.08.16 at 7:27 pm

sorry ,47 mark

#62 Sheane Wallace on 01.08.16 at 7:29 pm

#33 Mark

Garth, please ban Mark. It is hazardous to anyone’s health to read his stupidities, people are dying laughing!

#63 For those about to flop... on 01.08.16 at 7:29 pm

I don’t like the stuff but if someone is desperate I will get my parents to smuggle some Cauliflower in from Australia.
You know , inside of rice cookers and children’s toys just like the cartels do with the other overpriced white stuff.

I will do this on one condition ,that if Canada customs finds out you have to take the fall…
Desperate times= Desperate measures!

M41BC

#64 Randy on 01.08.16 at 7:30 pm

Crude Oil down to about $33 but we are still paying close to $1 per litre…reasssuring in a perverted sort of way.

#65 rk usa on 01.08.16 at 7:30 pm

the real kick to the economy is coming when the housing market slows down, several 100,000 plus jobs gone

trades employed in new house construction, mortgage finance, site and subdivision engineering, furniture, housewares and appliance sales, landscaping, renovaters, lumber suppliers, aggregate suppliers, municipal approvals and fees, moving companies

it will be epic insize and scope and be remembered for generations

#66 Garth...garth...garth... on 01.08.16 at 7:31 pm

You shunned us a few posts ago when we doubted interest rates would rise. “But we always follow the US” you said.

And now, you tell us to “get ready for an interest rate cut”.

Only 6 months ago, you told us to grow some round things and invest in the market whenever you have the money… because you don’t know if things are going higher or lower, and you don’t want to miss out.

So how is this any different than housing prices? i.e. your prediction is just as good as anyone else out there. Probably worse, non?

Our rates will inevitably and invariably rise. Mortgages first, bank rates later. In between, expect a mess. By the way, real estate outside of two bubbles us doing about as I expected. — Garth

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.16 at 7:34 pm

Califlower gives me gas. $8 bucks for endless amusement seems pretty cheap to me.

#68 Chris on 01.08.16 at 7:36 pm

Cauliflower only 6.99 in Calgary? Maybe because the economy is down there. Saw 7.99 cauliflower at T&T in Toronto two weeks ago.

#69 Chris on 01.08.16 at 7:39 pm

Also, the 7.99 cauliflower is not the big giant one that you used to be able buy at 2.99 or 3.99.

#70 Freedom First on 01.08.16 at 7:42 pm

#13 TurnerNation

Good read. Reminded me of GT being fired by H. It is the world we live in. Just look at the comment section of this Blog. So many idiots attacking the truth with personal degrading slurs. People can’t handle the truth. Nations of idiots everywhere. Even Canadians. In debt up to their a$$es. Can’t even follow simple financial principles. And it’s not rocket science. We simply live in an I want it now society of willing slaves.

It’s great to be me.

#71 Cici on 01.08.16 at 7:43 pm

#27 Adam is the man!

And what to say about Poloz? I almost feel sorry for him: he looked and sounded like he was going to break down in tears during that speech the other day. And it wasn’t just bad acting, I could tell.

Geesh, he’d better get it together and deal with the stress, because if he goes the same way that Flaherty did, this country is going to have a hard time recruiting financial pointy-heads…but then again, I suppose we could make do with robo governors and robo finance ministers.

#72 nonplused on 01.08.16 at 7:43 pm

Who on earth wants to eat cauliflower? It can go to zero and I still won’t buy it.

#73 Daisy Mae on 01.08.16 at 7:44 pm

“So what are the feds telling us?

Three things. First, inflation’s about to flare and the central bank will not be reacting. So suck it up, beavers. Second, the loonie is almost surely going lower than its current 70.68 cents US. Soon. And third, get ready for another interest rate cut – maybe even as early as Wednesday, January 20th. And what an admission of failure that will be.”

********************

What are the feds telling us? Only what you’ve been telling us for ions. No one wanted to listen. Well, they’re listening now….

#74 Julie K. on 01.08.16 at 7:44 pm

#30 old gringo ~

FreshKist brand (ex Santa Maria, CA) @ $3.99 CDN purchased about an hour ago from Clayton’s, Sechelt, BC.

This little, white, beauty, framed by crisp green leaves and a nice fresh looking stalk, weighed in at 1.5lbs.

Weighed it because they were being sold for flat rate v per/lb rate.

Wanted to make sure I picked the biggest, bestest one.

;)

#veggienation

#75 Yuus bin Haad on 01.08.16 at 7:45 pm

This is getting comical (but still nowhere near Chrétien’s “I’m not a lawyer”).

#76 acdel on 01.08.16 at 7:46 pm

U.S. debt clock real-time!

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

#77 Quebec is Great on 01.08.16 at 7:46 pm

Seeing LOTS of houses for sale on MLS in Georgian Bay area.. I don’t think anyone around there is waiting for spring… anyone else have some observations on this?

#78 Cici on 01.08.16 at 7:47 pm

#44 Godth

Thank you for so eloquently expressing everything I wanted to say!

#79 Jason Freidman on 01.08.16 at 7:48 pm

Government bond yields fell alot more this week and continue falling since last peak of 2013.

They are off at least 125 basis points since then and it will continue.

#80 rates on 01.08.16 at 7:54 pm

i thought rates follow us rates 98% of the time?

The 25-year average is 92%. If they don’t this time, look out. — Garth

#81 Godth on 01.08.16 at 7:57 pm

#58 Steerage Bilge on 01.08.16 at 7:23 pm

hahaha
The Astounding World of the Future
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJjUVIIYptE

#82 mog on 01.08.16 at 8:00 pm

A little nugget from Shakespeare on borrowing….
Courtesy of YVRs own Bard on the Beach with Christopher Gaze, Artistic Director.

https://youtu.be/fXuSOienUG8

#83 Alvina Knows on 01.08.16 at 8:02 pm

#26 Mark on 01.08.16 at 6:11 pm

Doubtful. Imports using the H-1B visa have largely supplanted the TN. Its cheaper to import people from India than it is from Canada. Canadians have been largely locked out of the US for quite a while now.

Anecdotes, we all have them.

I have been bringing home the mighty US$ since 2005 with continuous, multi-year contracts. My most recent TN application was in December and took less than 10 minutes including time with the cashier to take my 50 USD fee. I will repeat the process in 3 years, if I need the money.

Anyone who has been “locked out” of the US or the whole North American engineering field is an outlier to anything and everything that I, my peers, and co-workers are seeing.

#84 Ed on 01.08.16 at 8:03 pm

$7.99 cauliflower ? Is that expensive? I’ll take two…curried cauliflower is the bomb.

I made so much money over the years in Alberta that it has been a decade since I looked at grocery prices when shopping..

#85 PGer on 01.08.16 at 8:05 pm

The smugness of Canadians during the US real estate meltdown is coming back to bite us. The Americans at least learned (afterwards) not to put all their eggs in the real estate basket, while we obliviously continued to pile on the mortgage and other debt. He who laughs last….

#86 dutch4505 on 01.08.16 at 8:06 pm

there are a number of former CDN residents now living and working in Bellingham WA. we still have a lot of ties to the “homeland”. we like to use the term “metric dollar” when talking about the CDN dollar. (ratio of .62 kilometers to one USA mile) the border lineups however are still long, with Canadians still shopping and picking up amazon packages. go figure.

#87 dutch4505 on 01.08.16 at 8:09 pm

correction….that’s one CDN kilometer “buys a” 0.62 USA mile. the METRIC DOLLAR

#88 Garth...garth...garth... on 01.08.16 at 8:10 pm


Our rates will inevitably and invariably rise. Mortgages first, bank rates later. In between, expect a mess.

Um, that’s like saying the sun will set and the sun will rise.

Didn’t you get roasted a couple years back about some tv panel show about how a broken clock being correct two times a day?

Jabbing aside, I do appreciate the blog and you make salient points. I just hope your readers can think for themselves too.

#89 A Yank in BC on 01.08.16 at 8:12 pm

The current high price of Cauliflower is more due to a temporary severe shortage of supply (due to cold weather in regions of the southern U.S. where it is grown) than it is due to the fallen Loonie. Simply a by-product of El Nino.

The let’s talk about Harleys. — Garth

#90 Steerage Bilge on 01.08.16 at 8:12 pm

#79 Godth on 01.08.16 at 7:57 pm

#58 Steerage Bilge on 01.08.16 at 7:23 pm

hahaha
The Astounding World of the Future
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJjUVIIYptE


Nice!.. You’ve always got great links like that. Gotta stay on top of the end!

#91 Robin on 01.08.16 at 8:21 pm

Cauliflower is gross, I wouldn’t even pay 7 cents for it.

#92 Washed Up Lawyer on 01.08.16 at 8:24 pm

Tomorrow I have three appointments to view new rental digs in Fort McMisery for Feb 1. Not only will my rent drop from $1000 per month to $600 to $700 per month but I get to leave Skunk Hollow and move up to tony Indentured Hill.

The owner of the one I am most interested in laughed heartily when I asked him if he would accept a Flames fan as a tenant. Maybe my kind of folk. The savings are going into a rototiller (with a V8 and truck nutz) to churn dirt in the backyard in Calgary next summer to grow inedible vegetables.

If you are a renter in Alberta with gainful employment, you are sitting in the catbird seat.

#93 Mark on 01.08.16 at 8:28 pm

“Anyone who has been “locked out” of the US or the whole North American engineering field is an outlier to anything and everything that I, my peers, and co-workers are seeing.”

Whatever you say, make it up as you go along “Alvina knows”. But opportunities have dried up dramatically in many fields as the incremental source of labour is no longer Canadians, but rather, Indian nationals on the H-1B visa. In the late 1990s, firms were beating down the doors of Canadian universities looking for talent. Many professors of the era that I still talk to report having not heard from foreign recruiters since that time. The reasons are obvious — Canadians simply weren’t cheap enough and the whole reason for using Canadians was in an effort to get labour costs under control.

But since you’re into trolling, and not into dealing with facts, here are some links that might help you out:

http://www.cis.org/sites/cis.org/files/articles/2003/back183.gif

TN-1 issuance peaked in 2001 at 113k visas.

https://tnvisasample.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/2012_tn_issued1.jpg?w=540

TN-1 down to 4k visas as of 2012.

Adjust for the 3 year validity (ie: multiply the 2012 numbers by 3), and you still are at a mere fraction of the 2001 issuance.

In a nutshell, Canadians aren’t wanted in the US by employers, except in extremely limited circumstances. The ~90% reduction in TN-1 visa issuance means that a lot of solid Canadians are simply not being invited down there by employers. You are completely and utterly off base with your claim that only outliers can’t find jobs to qualify themselves for the TN-1 in the US economy.

#94 Time In on 01.08.16 at 8:28 pm

I am five years into a balanced and diversified portfolio.

After five years, not an insignificant amount of time, I should be up 70k. As of today, I am up 23k. I have seen 67% of my growth or ‘paper profits’ wiped out since the start of the volatility in the summer of 2015. If these declines continue into a serious correction or bear market, then my time in the market may soon yield zero gains.

The rule of thumb is that your money doubles every 10 years – well, in order for that to happen for me, we need a serious bull market for the next five years.

Time in the market is key to annualized gains, but the above situation shows me that that notion may be misguided.

TRT #20 – I like the way you think. I believe I will be cheerleading the rising cost of living – lets see how that goes at the office water cooler. I will be sure to say how great it is that my grocery bill is going up, my new gadget prices are rising, and the costs of services increasing.

But wait, inflation is great for the home debtors, so they might still be cheering with their equity gains. Home debtors seem to win either way – with the prospect of deflation and amidst a recession, prices still went up the last few years. With the prospect of inflation, their debts are inflated away

With the ability to leverage up to 95%, it seems that homeownership has been the key to growth and financial independence in recent years. Even with a mild 20% or 30% correction, people in the GTA and YVR will have made more advances in a few years than most investors will in a decade (let alone their lives).

Just wish that I realized this years ago. The housing market is just too high and bubbly now.

Sounds like you invested $140K and expect a $70K profit in the first first years. Well, it all depends on the quality of the assets you picked, on whether or not you had the correct international or US exposure, the right duration of fixed income, the correct forex hedging and if you rebalanced appropriately. Lots of variables, but only one constant – impatience. — Garth

#95 Morbidly Obese Jar Lady on 01.08.16 at 8:30 pm

Oh Lordy, Garth!

Cauliflower for $7?

You’ll never survive a Canadian winter on that kind of expensive crap!

I’ll take the same $7 and get 2 bags of Cheetos and a half pint of ice cream, and still have $1 left to put back in my debt repayment jar.

So simple!

And that way I’ll eat enough calories to make it til spring :)

#96 april on 01.08.16 at 8:31 pm

#20 – the foreigners who plonked their money in Canadian bricks and mortar now realize they’ve lost 37% of the value of their money and will be selling their mansions— but who will buy them……….down goes Van RE.

#97 Damon Price on 01.08.16 at 8:33 pm

In fact the last rate cut did nothing and another would do nothing. So why the pain Poloz? Surely Julia Trudeau and his Merry Pranksters must realize the starvation they have foisted on Canadians on low incomes?

#98 salonist on 01.08.16 at 8:42 pm

Paying for Private School with Tax-Free Money

http://www.thebluntbeancounter.com/2013/02/paying-for-private-school-with-tax-free.html

the morticia

#99 Mark on 01.08.16 at 8:42 pm

“#33 Mark

Garth, please ban Mark. It is hazardous to anyone’s health to read his stupidities, people are dying laughing!

What’s wrong with pointing out that the value of a currency is what one can actually buy with it, and that what one can actually buy with the currency is represented, on average, by CPI?

Do you really think its the BoC’s responsibility to index the Canadian dollar to a foreign asset class? And why would we pick the USD$ for that? Why not the Euro? Why not the Chinese Renmibi? Or the SDR? Why not Gold?

The low CAD$ compared to the USD$ is actually a temporary thing of beauty. Its keeping a lot of jobs alive not only in the O&G industry, but also in the manufacturing sector. The Quebec export sector is apparently on fire right now. And its led to a lot of opportunities, for not only the speculators (see: Smoking Man’s friend, yesterday), but also for balanced portfolio investors.

“Only an idiot would keep any CAD or buy CAD denominated bonds.”

I guess sell high, buy low is lost on you. Unfortunate, because you’re potentially leaving a lot of value on the table by your blind hatred of the CAD$. A currency which is certain to be in significant demand as the speculative frenzy against it is exhausted, and Canadian borrowers start to repay debt on account of a falling RE market.

What’s that old saying, “bears make money, bulls make money, but pigs get slaughtered”?

#100 not 1st on 01.08.16 at 8:44 pm

#76 Quebec is Great on 01.08.16 at 7:46 pm
—-

Hey fluffer?, didnt I see you on CNBC

#101 For those about to flop... on 01.08.16 at 8:49 pm

#73 Julie K

This little, white, beauty, framed by crisp green leaves and a nice fresh looking stalk, weighed in at 1.5lbs.

////////////////////////////////////

Hey Julie ,I wish you had posted a picture of this “beauty”.

#veggienation
#foodporn

M41BC

#102 Felix on 01.08.16 at 8:52 pm

Whored Collie Flowers?

Huh???

Collies, like all mutts, are already whored. Dogs have no brains or self-respect whatsoever. They’re all Harper cabinet ministers.

Flowers? What has that to do with any of this?

Maybe you could stop scratching Bandit’s ass and hire a proper cat to do your editing, Garth….

#103 Vb1978 on 01.08.16 at 8:52 pm

Where you all shopping for cauliflower? I can find it for 2.99 in kits

#104 I am the Babblemaster on 01.08.16 at 8:53 pm

“He shocked markets a year ago by cutting rates as oil started to cascade lower. Many believe he’s about to do it again.” – Garth

——————————————————

Negative interest rates coming soon to a bank account near you. And who knows, maybe bail-ins too.

Neither. Ever. — Garth

#105 acdel on 01.08.16 at 8:59 pm

#97 Mark
#61 Sheane Wallace
Garth, please ban Mark. It is hazardous to anyone’s health to read his stupidities, people are dying laughing!

Sorry disagree; Mark makes valid points. Try doing a little research Sheane.

#106 Matthew Good on 01.08.16 at 9:01 pm

Hey Smoking man, what indicators do you look for when trading forex? Anything more technical than camel toe and batman?

#107 robert james on 01.08.16 at 9:04 pm

Real Estate update from cowtown… http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2016/01/08/january-1-7-2016-calgary-real-estate-market-update/

#108 Kreditanstalt on 01.08.16 at 9:04 pm

Did anyone notice that US stocks have gone precisely nowhere – except now lower – since the QE teat was withdrawn more than a year ago?

#109 looking south? careful, sunglasses required on 01.08.16 at 9:06 pm

GT, yes it looks pretty awesome down south but why would the Atlanta Fed lower their Q4 estimate to .8?
Heck, Xmas is in there along with the unseasonably warm weather….now that’s strange, eh….

#110 Boombust on 01.08.16 at 9:09 pm

Global Vancouver News is at it yet again.

One of tonight’s “feature stories” is how the declining Chinese stock markets will spur “rich Chinese” to invest in Vancouver real estate as “safe havesn” for their $$$$.

They just don’t give up.

#111 OXI in GREECE on 01.08.16 at 9:10 pm

So Garth, again you just cheerleaded a jobs report that has no manufacturing gains and it all part time hires in the service sector. Good oil patch jobs in ND and TX were replaced with dog walkers and uber drivers.

And now that QE is gone, Wall Street actually looked into the report this time and were less than impressed. Dow still sold off.

The Dow is off because rates will rise. A job is a job is a job. And you’re still wrong. — Garth
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

You are actually trying to say that “A govt job” which “sucks money out of the economy” and provides very very little benefit to it……is the SAME as a private sector job that employs people, creates growth in the economy and does not “Take Money” away from people like govt jobs do?

WOW !!

You are a twisted person, who has posted his last. — Garth

#112 robert on 01.08.16 at 9:11 pm

Don’t worry about us boomers we have all been long the HSD ( Horizon BetaPro Bear Plus ETF ) and will stay long after hearing the Bear Growl in December! As of today only 21% of the stocks on the NYSE are above their 200 day moving average. You think this market may have some more downside?

#113 Rexx Rock on 01.08.16 at 9:11 pm

Poloz is a financial terrorist.To deliberately devalue our currency and lower interest rates to indebt Canadian society.Looking to move to a lower cost country where life is better.
Go TVIX and UVXY.Hope you took my advice an made a little money.

#114 family beagle on 01.08.16 at 9:13 pm

Thoughts… Lower dollar/lower interest rate is good for govt. More sales tax on imports. More gas tax. More RE speculation. Revenue from money movement is required, conservation and saving hinders. Consumption and borrowing begets transactions. Cauliflower is seasonal.

#115 Panhead on 01.08.16 at 9:14 pm

#19 Michael King on 01.08.16 at 6:06 pm
Writing from Vancouver. Asparagus @ $9.99/lb on the West 4th Avenue High Street.

Fresh dungenesse crab leg meat … Granville Island yesterday … are you ready … $51/lb … and change. You can actually walk out in the ocean here in the spring and pick them up for the cost of a license. But don’t tell anybody …

#116 Leo Trollstoy on 01.08.16 at 9:16 pm

#82 Alvina Knows on 01.08.16 at 8:02 pm

Very nice. Congrats. You’re likely highly employable. Unfortunately there are those who are unemployable regardless of their formal education. Success always depends on the individual. Unemployables blame out. Reality always punishes the dumb.

#117 Love my Kia on 01.08.16 at 9:17 pm

Cauliflower is 92% water. Ripoff.

There are a lot of veggies out of season not being sold at the grocery store if they chose to sell them would be astronomically priced as well. Learn to live without cauliflower til summer and find something else to steam. Carrots are still cheap.

#118 Leo Trollstoy on 01.08.16 at 9:18 pm

CA$ sucks, Vancouver and Toronto RE prices skyrocket upwards along with debt, gold and oil are turds and no deflation in North America. Things are good.

#119 devore on 01.08.16 at 9:29 pm

#38 Smartalox

Does anyone remember the days when fruit and vegetables had ‘seasons’? That there were times of the year when local produce was available, and times when it wasn’t?

Seriously, who expects cauliflower to be cheap in the middle of winter in Canada? I guess the same kinds of people who make economic predictions on this blog. Prices for common grocery items are not that different from 2014 YoY, especially after accounting for currency rates. Slightly up. Some lower, some higher.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/econ155a-eng.htm

#120 devore on 01.08.16 at 9:37 pm

#108 Boombust

One of tonight’s “feature stories” is how the declining Chinese stock markets will spur “rich Chinese” to invest in Vancouver real estate as “safe havesn” for their $$$$.

Of course. Chinese economy going gangbusters: rich Chinese will buy real estate to protect their money. Chinese economy in the dumps: rich Chinese will buy real estate to protect their money. What do you not understand?

#121 OXI in GREECE on 01.08.16 at 9:38 pm

BANNED

#122 Balmuto on 01.08.16 at 9:39 pm

Wow. Suncor got less than half the Canadian Oil Sands shares in their tender offer. The COS shareholders must either think Suncor will up their bid, or they’re hoping for a miraculous recovery in oil prices. Very risky move.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-09/canadian-oil-sands-shareholders-said-to-reject-suncor-takeover

#123 vic guy on 01.08.16 at 9:40 pm

#24 Nanaimo Bar

Local online classifieds websites for tools and most other things a consumer needs…sure it’s used but way below retail and tax free.

#124 A box in the Sky on 01.08.16 at 9:43 pm

It’s hard being bearish on Toronto real estate when 90% of the housing bears on here are doomers / goldbugs / conspiracy theorists (ie. questioning all economic data that’s published)

I mean yesterday we had a guy posting he’s been in cash out of the stock market since 2012. This is pure lunacy. Like wtf are you waiting for to get back in, what’s your buy signal?

There have been 10%+ drawdowns 3 of the last 4 years in the S&P but a doomer still won’t step in. Even if the stock market goes down 25% a doomer won’t buy in because then they’ll wait for it to go down 50%. And then when it’s down 50% they won’t jump in b/c they’ll want it to be down 75% and on and on.

So yeah it sucks man being a bear on house prices in TO when the bear to your left and to your right is a nutjob.

#125 Mark on 01.08.16 at 9:45 pm

“One of tonight’s “feature stories” is how the declining Chinese stock markets will spur “rich Chinese” to invest in Vancouver real estate as “safe havesn” for their $$$$.”

Bizarre, isn’t it? The whole point off the Chinese crisis is that there isn’t money, nevermind money to actually sell Chinese assets and buy Canadian dollars. And Chinese are incredibly unlikely to sell Chinese assets on the cheap and buy some of the most expensive RE in the world.

“CA$ sucks, Vancouver and Toronto RE prices skyrocket upwards along with debt, gold and oil are turds and no deflation in North America. Things are good.”

Gold is actually doing quite well in CAD$ and even USD$ terms recently, Vancouver and Toronto RE prices are entering their 3rd year of decline, and the US economy is clearly suffering wage deflation in the most recent BLS report with official acknowledgement of consumer price deflation not far behind.

You going for a trifecta of wrong this evening?

#126 gladiator on 01.08.16 at 9:48 pm

It’s a dog blog.
Call them collie flowers.
Amd yes, they are expensive. And yes, I have no idea why people eat them – they’re gross and overpriced. Just eat cabbage instead. Same taste, less than 1/10th of the price.

#127 prairiegopher on 01.08.16 at 9:49 pm

A barrel of bitumen oil is selling for a little more than a barrel of monkeys. One is more fun than the other.

#128 JamesA on 01.08.16 at 9:49 pm

Locked out of the US? I did CS and I get recruiting emails from the states a least once a week (Seattle and the Bay area, once in a while New York).

The grass is always greener till you get there. They work you like a dog and your negotiating hand is weak because they can do more than just fire you, they can upend your life on a whim.

We need to do cool stuff in Canada. The tech scene here is terrible. Its our fault. We have the talent.

If you want to go south, just do a half decent game (or whatever) and put the code in an app store (or github). If its half decent, you too can put in 70+ hours a week and live in a slum with junkies and drug dealers. Woo hoo. I spent 4 years in a city and know almost nothing about it.

Going to watch Fargo season 2. Its good.

#129 Herf on 01.08.16 at 9:50 pm

#14 Freeman

“All of the job gains were in Health Care and Education.

So no problem, all we have to do is train those laid off oil workers to be Nurses and Teachers and the problem is solved.”

Not to mention, all the laid-off engineers and geologists.

#130 semi retired at 41 on 01.08.16 at 9:52 pm

Coming from Saskatchewan, I, too, was once convinced that the only *real* jobs were those that excavated, built, drilled, felled, and otherwise used resources and polluted the environment. I worked under this impression for 20 years…

then I moved to California. Its amazing what a difference a diversified economy that valued creative effort makes. Jobs here are plentiful and do not necessarily entail getting dirty, sweaty or making a mess. What a revelation! I can exercise my creative side and actually make a decent living!

Canada is such a primitive society by comparison.

#131 common sense on 01.08.16 at 9:54 pm

Leo and Garth:

I officially will eat my hat…I still can’t see it where I travel on business in the USA but the numbers show the economy IS BOOMING.

Take your best shots.

#132 JSS on 01.08.16 at 9:56 pm

Today, I had a rather large serving of knowledge related to the cauliflower.

It’s been quite a tasty blog today, I must admit.

Maybe on Sunday we can discuss an appropriate dip :)

#133 gladiator on 01.08.16 at 9:57 pm

@cowded elevator fartz

Sauercraut made with white wine and no vnegar gives the best gas. I guarantee intra-elevator faintings if you pair it with some garlic mayo that’s past its best before date and some half-cooked sausages.
Jucy!!!!

#134 common sense on 01.08.16 at 9:58 pm

Sadly watching the shit show from the safety of the sidelines.

How low will it go????

Buy and HOLD? Please.

#135 John on 01.08.16 at 9:58 pm

Thank god you booted that OXI/GREECE nutjob. One less whacko to pullute your site.

#136 gladiator on 01.08.16 at 9:59 pm

My “i” key is malfunctioning. Not as excitingly as Janet’s bra, but malfunctioning nevertheless.

#137 BS on 01.08.16 at 10:07 pm

reflect on what Bank of Canada boss Stephen Poloz said in a speech this week: yes, he admitted, the dollar sucks and so does the economy. But get used to it. There’s more to come.

Did anyone expect any different from a T2 government? I guess T2 is waiting for the budget to balance itself.

When do we get the ‘sunny days’ he promised? Or are these the sunny days in the eyes of kindergarten teacher?

#138 The real Kip on 01.08.16 at 10:07 pm

Never mind cauliflower prices, I’m going to the boat show Sunday. It’ll be interesting to see the prices there as much of it is not made here.

#139 TurnerNation on 01.08.16 at 10:11 pm

I dunno at my large-chain groceteria this week 1lb Strawberries is 4.99, 1/2 pints of blackberries and raspberries 2.50. Not bad for winter prices. I’ll spend $10-12 for a week’s worth of daily fresh breakfast fruits.

Another rate cuy will propel more Long Branchidians – with their summer teeth (summer’ there, summer’ gone) – into millionaire status, with their fetid sht bungs.

#140 common sense on 01.08.16 at 10:14 pm

Bad joke of the day actually heard in Buffalo..

What do you call a Canadian Toonie now?

A loonie..

#141 A box in the Sky on 01.08.16 at 10:17 pm

#133 common sense on 01.08.16 at 9:58 pm

Sadly watching the shit show from the safety of the sidelines.

How low will it go????

Buy and HOLD? Please.
_______________________________

1. What if you’re wrong? When do you buy?

2. What if you’re right? When do you buy?

#142 Millmech on 01.08.16 at 10:17 pm

Mark 123
Bang on about the “Chinese Investors” I never understand that type of logic,your investments are down, so you’ve lost what at least 20%,now your going to buy the most overpriced real estate in the world.I don’t understand how they became wealthy when they are doing the exact opposite of what it takes to get wealthy.I guess they’re trying to assimilate a little quicker by acting like average Canadians.

#143 winterpeg on 01.08.16 at 10:21 pm

Just got home from shopping where I noticed Cauliflower was $6.99 here too at Safeway. Was going to post it , but of course you’re on the front end of the curve, as always.
Grapefruit $1.50 each. Seasonal prices with a dollop of weak CAD on top.
Temperatures dropping, though, closer to seasonal norms. – 26. ( but not – 40 yet). Gotta love Winnipeg.

#144 common sense on 01.08.16 at 10:23 pm

#105 Matthew Good

No expert but just watch the trend line to see where it stops for support, buy, watch it go up to point where you want to take profits – sell.

Rinse and repeat. It’s been good for me.

Long term, buy low and watch it go up with a loose support sell level and watch your margin call.

#145 Ronaldo on 01.08.16 at 10:28 pm

Bubbles forming on auto loans in US.

http://thecrux.com/u-s-auto-debt-surges-past-1-trillion-is-this-the-next-bubble/

#146 common sense on 01.08.16 at 10:31 pm

#138 Box in the Sky

When it drops a certain percentage and it feels somewhat safe to re-enter the market.

Call it an educated feel based on world events, a lot of reading. I’ll never be the first back but won’t be the last either. I’d rather lose some of the way up for jumping back in too early and getting further losses.

Right now the risk feels far more greater than any short term gain. As simple as that. The storm is still raging.

A great advisor told me at 54 where your at “hit singles. You have saved enough that you don’t need any home runs.” based on my moderate lifestyle. As a result, be patient and wait.

Depends on your style, age, etc but is comfortable for me.

#147 Rip Van Winkle on 01.08.16 at 10:35 pm

“But the stuff Canada produces – called Western Canadian Select – is totally unloved, and now the world’s cheapest oil. ”

Hey, not so fast. We are an ENERGY SUPERPOWER!
http://www.2020magazine.ca/download.php?id=118

#148 Sideshow Rob on 01.08.16 at 10:44 pm

#56 Sheane Wallace

“You are VERY stupid, preferred will keep their value in a market slowdown better.”

/////////////////////////////////

TSX is down 18.7% from it’s 2015 peak.
CPD (preferred etf) is down 24.6% from it’s 2015 peak.
Can you explain again to us simple folk how the preferreds will keep their value better in a market slowdown?

#149 Leo Trollstoy on 01.08.16 at 10:46 pm

#131 common sense on 01.08.16 at 9:54 pm

that’s why u still need to work. don’t worry, Garth and i can see it $$$

#150 Murphy on 01.08.16 at 10:49 pm

#44 Goofy Two Shoes

Are you Peter??

#151 common sense on 01.08.16 at 10:50 pm

#149 Leo

Yep, still working yet gratefully on my own terms and schedule for the past 25 years….wish I was done but c’est la vie.

#152 Smoking Man on 01.08.16 at 10:51 pm

Change of scenery..

Hammered in maskoka…. one more drink I’m buying it.

#153 45north on 01.08.16 at 10:52 pm

First, inflation’s about to flare and the central bank will not be reacting. Second, the loonie is almost surely going lower than its current 70.68 cents US. Soon. And third, get ready for another interest rate cut – maybe even as early as Wednesday, January 20th.

forget cauliflower! the price of cars goes up as the Cdn dollar goes down. In a North American market, cars are priced in US dollars. Same for motorcycles. The journey man plumber down the street says he charges in US dollars because the parts he buys are in US dollars.

We are prisoners of the housing market. Interest rates are kept low to allow the housing market to expand but the rates are going up because the banks are charging more.

#154 WallOfWorry on 01.08.16 at 10:57 pm

Garth,

This jobs report shows that wages dropped moderately. Additionally, like your argument for Canadian housing, it is showing that more and more the jobs being produced are part time service jobs while manufacturing continues to erode? What is your source that states differently?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-08/why-no-wage-growth-multiple-jobholders-surge-highest-august-2008

Every month the U.S. posts a strong jobs advance. Every month the zero guy craps on it. Every month you fall for it? — Garth

#155 common sense on 01.08.16 at 10:58 pm

#149 Leo

Wish I was perfect like Freedom First…Then I could devote all of my time to educating the masses and be world supreme ________.

#156 Smoking Man on 01.08.16 at 11:01 pm

#106 Matthew Good on 01.08.16 at 9:01 pm
Hey Smoking man, what indicators do you look for when trading forex? Anything more technical than camel toe and batman?

….

There is, but it cost me a lot to learn. So not giving it up with out you handing over your daughter and wife.

Just kidding.

My shits not for sale. it’s free on this democracy.

All that’s required, every now and then…even if it’s a lie. A complete package of bull shit.

Smokey, your a great writer…

Need the motivation to finish the beast of a book.

#157 WUL on 01.08.16 at 11:02 pm

Well, I think I know where I am headed. A niche. This has been an unpleasant week for economic news. In my garage in Calgary I still have my anvil, some hammers and some tongs. My propane forge is buried in some Alberta clover, timothy and alfalfa in Township 63, Range 4, West 4th Meridian. I will try to recover the forge this spring. If Trump and the WI Gov build a fence along the Can/US border, maybe it will be wrought iron. If that happens, I am in the chips. If they go with white picket, I am hooped.

Me and the kid are kinda hooked on that forged in the fire reality TV show. I know enough to not strike steel unless it is glowing red.

I will die with a hammer in my hand, Lord, Lord. I will die with a hammer in my hand.

#158 WallOfWorry on 01.08.16 at 11:11 pm

Garth…#154

You are kidding right? Here are the facts:

First: the continued surge of minimum wage jobs, as seen in the chart below, which shows that in December another 36,900 minimum wage waiters and bartenders were added to the labor force, bringing the total to a new record high of 11.3 million.
Second: a troubling finding from the report was the continued surge in temp-help workers. In fact, as the BLS admitted, while employment in professional and business services increased by 73,000 in December, temporary help services accounting for nearly half, or 34,000, of the gain. As the chart below shows, jumping the 34K jump in December brought the number of temp-worker to a new all time high.
Third: the most troubling aspect of today’s jobs report, and perhaps the clearest explanation why there was no wage growth in December, is that the number of multiple job holders soared by 324,000 bringing the total to 7.738 million. This was the highest since August 2008, which as a reminder is the month before the great financial crisis started.
End result: average hourly wages declined from $25.25 to $25.24.

if the US economy is “killing it” as you suggest, why then does GDP growth continue to languish at 2% with everybody forecasting slow growth to persist?

#159 lionsroarin64 on 01.08.16 at 11:12 pm

We interrupt this blog on cauliflower (?) to share some great news about the Little Guy vs. Bureaucrats Run Amuck: Irvin Leroux owes CRA $10.

http://www.cknw.com/2016/01/08/135357/

#160 common sense on 01.08.16 at 11:13 pm

US VERSION but so True..

http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/01/08/462250239/when-an-index-card-of-financial-tips-isnt-enough-this-book-is-there?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20160108

#161 jane 24 on 01.08.16 at 11:25 pm

Cauliflower is probably not a good example of inflation caused by the rising Canadian dollar. It is not in season in the Northern hemisphere and crops worldwide have been badly effected by the weird weather we are all having.

Here in England it is currently $3.30 Cdn for a large one and that is up substantially from its normal price. A lot come from South Africa and their currency the rand is dropping but the weather is taking its toll.

The price of Canadian Tire wrenches are probably a better example of Cdn $ weakness.

#162 Brydle604 on 01.08.16 at 11:30 pm

Congratulations Irvine Leroux, finally some justice.
I am proud to have contributed $ to your fight with the CRA

#163 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.08.16 at 11:40 pm

#43 Europe is cheaper on 01.08.16 at 6:44 pm
Cauliflower across Europe 1 or max 1.5 Euro depending on size, quality and so on.
———–
And they are organic, too.

#164 For those about to flop... on 01.08.16 at 11:43 pm

Boss ,this will give you a laugh.

M41BC

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QaQ700VkFAg

#165 Ernesto Salvi on 01.08.16 at 11:51 pm

Turning our currency into the North American Peso will not work. The Economists explains why:
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21685489-big-currency-devaluations-are-not-boosting-exports-much-they-used-after?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/afterthedips

#166 Craig on 01.08.16 at 11:54 pm

Problem #1 (cauliflower) solved , only $5.99 at no frills.

Problem #2 Justin Bieber , national embarassment . In trouble in Mexico for trying to climb sacred Mayan ruins in Tulum. Don’t have a solution yet but I’m working on it . Most logical option is to offer the Mexican’s a one for one even up swap , we’ll take El Chapo if they take Bieber .

#167 Rediculous on 01.09.16 at 12:32 am

Millmech @142

“…I guess they’re trying to assimilate a little quicker by acting like average Canadians….” thanks for the belly laugh.

#168 Veggie nation - Realties.ca on 01.09.16 at 12:34 am

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/08/veggie-nation/ […]

#169 HJD on 01.09.16 at 12:42 am

“And before gazing at the magnificence of these buxom veggies,….” Garth

I presume you’re referring to the fact that these two elderly individuals in the photo are “vegging out”. Too bad they’re not “vegans” – then they’d both be trim and fit, and not wasting money on expensive stuff like eggs, cheese, milk, meat, fish, poultry and processed foods. Becoming a vegan is the best way to improve your health, save money and have a smaller negative impact on our struggling environment. In terms of priorities, this is much more important than investing wisely.

#170 Zed in Geneva on 01.09.16 at 1:18 am

Why do people insist on buyng what is expensive?

– House price high = let’s buy more of it
– Cauliflower price high = it most be good and in high demand to justify that price, so buy
– Nortel stock is at $122 = it has to be more valuable than when it was at $50, so buy
– TV’s advertised at 5% off = buy
– stock market is down 5% in a week = sell

Strange.

#171 Lillooet, BC on 01.09.16 at 1:43 am

#154 WallOfWorry on 01.08.16 at 10:57 pm
Garth,

This jobs report shows that wages dropped moderately. Additionally, like your argument for Canadian housing, it is showing that more and more the jobs being produced are part time service jobs while manufacturing continues to erode? What is your source that states differently?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-08/why-no-wage-growth-multiple-jobholders-surge-highest-august-2008

Every month the U.S. posts a strong jobs advance. Every month the zero guy craps on it. Every month you fall for it? — Garth

****************
Somewhat similarly, that Ross Kay looks like a zero real estate analyst!
In contrast, Garth’s view on RE is balanced but his prediction is off the chart so far.

#172 Gulf Breeze on 01.09.16 at 1:52 am

Somebody mentioned they bought cauliflower for 2.99 in kits. It’s likely cheaper to buy it unassembled, that way.

All kidding aside; some parts of the U.S. are doing okay,expanding but many of the new hires are service I dusty temporary jobs, formerly permanent jobs. Employers will cut somebody’s hours in half and hire somebody else part time, to get around Obama care’s requirements for employer coverage, which is compulsory for employees working more than 29 hours a week. I believe my numbers are correct here.

So, if you are a bartender, you don’t have the luxury of one shit job, you have to find work as a bartender at two different places, to survive. The bartender now qualifies for subsidized healthcare paid by govt. and employer is off the hook.

Why they don’t just simplify and have a more humane workable and cheaper universal system, I’ll never know.

The U.S is the most miserable, cruel, stupid and violent country on the planet, with the highest rates of incarceration, anywhere in the world.

Most of the people who live there have major psyche issues. Is it any wonder? But hey, they churn out great employment stats and GDP, which is meaningless in a high stress, horrid environment.

I am SO glad I am out of there! They are poised to take a major dump. My business is down there, in the wealthiest commercial zone in the most active city on the West coast. Super diversified, high tech, go go go. But the country itself is so unstable, at core, in so many ways it scares me. I feel I always have to have 5 years of savings to get me through a complete and total potential loss of income.

Smoke and mirrors. Be very suspicious of the dazzle dazzle pre-election happy talk. It’s grim down there.

#173 Gulf Breeze on 01.09.16 at 1:58 am

Smoking Man,

You’re writing a book? Ittle bee a best cellar. I no it wil.

#174 waiting on the westcoast on 01.09.16 at 3:15 am

I like this blog. While we all use stats to convey our positions, it is the anecdotal stories that tell so much about our outlook and hopes individually.

So here is my story for 2015. I own 4 reasonably mature operational businesses in the US. They are spread between the East and West coast of the US. They are all up over 15% over last year. The highest is up nearly 30%. The US in general is up over 20% from 2014.

They are franchised locations so I have access to some pretty extensive data in North America and Australia. Canada is still doing OK, except Alberta and to a lessor degree Sask and Okanagon and Vancouver Island. Perth is getting pummeled in Oz as well. Ah, the commodities…

On the wage front, we have seen wages progressively pushed up as our employees are seeing opportunities to move to competition for more money. Especially at the management level, it is hard to get the combination of knowledge, drive and lower wages. People are beginning to feel their oats in the US.

I think 2016 will be solid in the US. I worry about 2017+. As a CDN, I worry about the BoC allowing our dollar to dive (even though it personally benefits me). We need to grow and build our country. Sometimes that means taking some significant short term pain.

I am also concerned when I hear so much chatter (here and elsewhere) about our collective condition. What are we going to do about it….???

#175 mark on 01.09.16 at 3:53 am

#57 Sheane Wallace on 01.08.16 at 7:18 pm

Last time i checked the tsx did not lose 26 percent last year but rate reset BMO ZPR did.
I guess you did not pass math.
Preferreds continue to slide……..

#176 mark on 01.09.16 at 3:56 am

#57 Sheane Wallace on 01.08.16 at 7:18 pm

Sorry sheane i guess your the simpleton lol.

#177 mark on 01.09.16 at 4:13 am

#57 Sheane Wallace on 01.08.16 at 7:18 pm

There you go even someone thick between the ears should get it, preferreds are brutal……

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/summary/?q=ZPR-T

#178 Lesterbowles on 01.09.16 at 5:47 am

Holy crap Garth, the jobs number down here in the good old US of A is absolute BS. You are a numbers guy, look into the facts behind the lame stream media bloviation.

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=231014

#179 willworkforpickles on 01.09.16 at 6:03 am

Forget redemption through rising equity. The chaos and anarchy to come to this continent will finish that off.

#180 willworkforpickles on 01.09.16 at 6:24 am

Cauliflower is a veggie that supports the liver and cleans toxins from the blood from all the poison preservative laden food we eat which is in better than 90% of all food on today’s supermarket shelves.
Bad food intake without the good can will and does lead to disease. Good food intake can will and does prevent disease’s.

#181 Ronaldo on 01.09.16 at 6:34 am

This is for Smoking Man. When I ran across this I thought of you and the book you are writing. Maybe this guy could help you market it. He wrote one too.

https://twitter.com/georgegutowski

#182 Ronaldo on 01.09.16 at 6:45 am

#159 lionsroarin64 on 01.08.16 at 11:12 pm

”We interrupt this blog on cauliflower (?) to share some great news about the Little Guy vs. Bureaucrats Run Amuck: Irvin Leroux owes CRA $10.

http://www.cknw.com/2016/01/08/135357/

That is fantastic. Thanks for the link.

#183 Ronaldo on 01.09.16 at 6:53 am

For those who were not aware of Irvin Leroux’s fight with CRA, here is his website. Show’s the little guy can win if he sticks to his guns with a little help from his friends. Such good news.

http://www.lerouxed./HOME.htmlcom

#184 Debt Free is blissful on 01.09.16 at 7:06 am

Our family is now debt free. We have money in the bank and invested and we rent. I don’t need to ask the bank to co-sign my rental agreements.

Had this status since the summer and I can personally confirm, that it is good to be free and live without the boat anchor. I have more quality time with the kids, I don’t sweat over income and can enjoy life more.

Sold with a solid gain and converted 50% to USD at the time, wish it was 100%. Buying forward contracts helps as well. You need a good currency broker.

Our kids are able to go to a good College or University now even though our incomes would probably not have allowed that unless the kids would take on a student loan. That is worth more than being at the mercy of the banker.

Mortgage is French for “Death Grip”

If you own your home outright, you live the dream. If you owe more than 50% of the current value of your home, you are living in a bubble that can turn into a mental prison with lots of anguish.

#185 1% Doomer on 01.09.16 at 7:18 am

Forget Harleys. Was at Golftown. Prices going up 10-30% on almost everything in the store due to wholesalers adjusting prices. Gotta find a new 1% hobby, maybe hunting the serfs on 34 Batonmy estate.

#186 AK on 01.09.16 at 7:43 am

“There is a good chance that this rate cut could come later this month, to 0.25% from 0.50%,” adds Madani.
====================================
Is this move going to make any difference?

#187 Mike on 01.09.16 at 7:46 am

Just checked my investments, only down about 2%. Wish I had more cash to invest.

#188 Sheane Wallace on 01.09.16 at 7:52 am

#148 Sideshow Rob on 01.08.16 at 10:44 pm
#56 Sheane Wallace

“You are VERY stupid, preferred will keep their value in a market slowdown better.”

/////////////////////////////////

TSX is down 18.7% from it’s 2015 peak.
CPD (preferred etf) is down 24.6% from it’s 2015 peak.
Can you explain again to us simple folk how the preferreds will keep their value better in a market slowdown?

————————

I meant US preferreds

#189 Sheane Wallace on 01.09.16 at 7:56 am

#105 acdel on 01.08.16 at 8:59 pm
#97 Mark
#61 Sheane Wallace
Garth, please ban Mark. It is hazardous to anyone’s health to read his stupidities, people are dying laughing!

Sorry disagree; Mark makes valid points. Try doing a little research Sheane.

————————-

Let me be clear here (and please unfreeze your brain, the winter is not that bad this year; also stop drinking fluoridated water):

If you believe that Mark makes valid point that CAD is rising and there is no inflation while it is sinking against the USD (from over par to .70 cents) and cauliflower is at 7-8 bucks you need some serious (and I mean very serious) professional mental help.

#190 Sheane Wallace on 01.09.16 at 7:56 am

#148 Sideshow Rob on 01.08.16 at 10:44 pm

PFF

#191 Sheane Wallace on 01.09.16 at 8:12 am

#148 Sideshow Rob on 01.08.16 at 10:44 pm

Canadian preferreds went down because the idiot at BOC reduced the rates twice in an environment of crashing CAD.

Of course Canadian preferreds will go even down even further as the idiot is contemplating further reduction in rates and even negative rates when oil is going down to the 20-es handle and the CAD is obliterated.

I certainly won’t buy CAD preferreds, furthermore, I will stay away from any CAD denominated assets, specially bonds.

Institutions buying CAD denominated bonds at sub 2 % are insane.

#192 Sheane Wallace on 01.09.16 at 8:29 am

Mark 175, 176, 177:

There you go:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PFF#symbol=PFF;range=my

that brings 6-7 % yearly in USD

How is that shorting of USD going?

#193 Sheane Wallace on 01.09.16 at 8:31 am

Mark 175, 176, 177:

as for relations between preferreds and interest rates, do some research.

I will clarify from not on that I am no talking about Canadian equities. For them there is one actions: SHORT!

#194 economictsunami on 01.09.16 at 8:45 am

Garth:

Congratulations!

Your evil Pavlovian cauliflower experiment went according to plan.

The blog dogs responded accordingly.

Global Corporate Debt is Coming Unglued :

“The oil & gas sector led with 29 defaulters (26% of the total). Metals, mining, and steel followed with 17 defaulters (15% of the total). The consumer products sector and the bank sectors tied for the third place, each with 13 defaulters (12% of the total).”

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/01/06/global-corporate-debt-is-coming-unglued/

The great reflation, gives way to the great unwind.

Couldn’t see the cauliflower for the produce…

#195 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.09.16 at 9:04 am

@#110 BoomBust

yeah , I saw that nauseating “news” story as well. Seems like Global 6pm TV has turned into an endless Remax incest orgy. Never , ever a dissenting, anti Real Estate story and then they break to commercial…..A ReMax commercial………and TV owners wonder why their ratings are swirling in the toilet.

@#121 Oxi in Greece

Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaa

@#133 Gladiator

Fascinating culinary advice. I shall parttake and “report” back………..

#196 ben on 01.09.16 at 9:16 am

They are trying to save the banks and the boomers.

It’s time ladies and gentlemen. Boomers+ you are going under the bus. It’s so wide that you can’t walk around it even though you can see it coming.

Enjoy.

#197 Estrella on 01.09.16 at 9:16 am

http://thereformedbroker.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Screen-Shot-2016-01-06-at-9.11.15-AM.png

Sharing this chart that I found interesting regarding bull/bear cycles.

I found it actually reassuring. Sharing with other dogs here.

#198 Zorba on 01.09.16 at 9:22 am

Mark,what is your prediction for RE in Vancouver,year 2020 ?

#199 broader mind on 01.09.16 at 9:36 am

So BOC gang led by Mr. Polution has found a way to deflate our housing bubble in such a way that all you lemmings feel good about your home values.Your million dollar home two years ago is worth 700 k now and dropping in USD. Making 8% or more in CAD is a massive loss. Surely the fools making a couple of points on there real estate will understand there sniffing turds when the average Kia is 100k (or vegetables). Coming soon to Kijiji ads- will trade my condo for one good Harley.

#200 BC Working Guy on 01.09.16 at 9:37 am

@Leo Trollstoy:

“Reality always punishes the dumb.”

I am so sick of reading that trite line. It’s another way of saying we live in a meritocracy where one’s socioeconomic position is a pure reflection of their intelligence and abilities. It is simply not true. There are plenty of dumb rich people and there are plenty of smart poor people. I could write an entire thesis about this so I won’t say much more. The Kardashians come to mind when I think of dumb rich people–or just about most celebrities. How is reality punishing them?

#201 jeff on 01.09.16 at 10:02 am

EXACTLY, and the U.S. is still riddled with debt

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/most-americans-are-one-paycheck-away-from-the-street-2016-01-06

#202 ben on 01.09.16 at 10:06 am

Market doesn’t seem to agree on CAD tho:

http://ca.investing.com/currencies/usd-cad-contractsb

#203 TurnerNation on 01.09.16 at 10:11 am

Richer than we think! I know I’ve never seen so many new Mercedes and BMWs in downtown Toronto.

Go to Autotrader.ca, set search to National, click on Make.

8681 BMWs for sale.
6891 Mercedes.
6128 Chryslers.
4368 Subrarus.

There you have it, BMW and Mercedes popularity over regular cars. It’s all about the monthlies bro. You too can be a baller.

#204 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 01.09.16 at 10:13 am

Garth,

One of us has willful blindness (and I admit it could be me)

“Second, the loonie is almost surely going lower than its current 70.68 cents US. Soon.” Garth

The loonie is likely going up, along with the Mexican Peso and the price of oil, not because of opinion, but because the Commercial Hedgers are at record long positions! See the COTs reports. Still do not believe…Then explaion how the Natural Gas price has risen almost 40% in the last few weeks!

“Belkin predicted a 40% market drop in 2012, before it soared. — Garth” Predicting is a tough game. Have you not been predicting weak prices for GTA and Vancouver only to see the prices soar. Here is where willful blindness comes in. The 5 % buyers at the margin are dramatically exacerbating the situation.

“The Dow is off because rates will rise. A job is a job is a job. And you’re still wrong. — Garth”

You have previously correctly mentioned that this rate hike was well telegraphed for several months and that it was likely priced into the market. Only new and unexpected information can cause the worst start to the DOW ever. That new information was all about CHINA and the ongoing currency debasements.

BTW, the stats out of the BLS are suspect not because of fraud, but actually out of privacy protection where they do not actually have indiviual Social Security numbers. This is a growing problem since Obama Care:

In the payroll survey, three part-time jobs count as three jobs. The BLS attempts to factor this in, but they do not weed out duplicate Social Security numbers. The potential for double-counting jobs in the payroll survey is large.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2016/01/multiple-jobholders-artificially-boost.html#rWrWa6G8E2M2vtgR.99

“Every month the U.S. posts a strong jobs advance. Every month the zero guy craps on it. Every month you fall for it? — Garth”

Every time you mention the jobs data, you forget to mention that it is a LAGGING indicator. The only useful information is the wage gain changes that are likely to put upward pressure on inflation (and therefore commodities, interest rates and the C$).

Have a great weekend!

#205 BC Working Guy on 01.09.16 at 10:17 am

@Boombust #110

It’s not just Global TV News. The Vancouver Sun also has a story that says the stock market crash in China will send more Chinese money into Vancouver real estate. From the Vancouver Sun:

“The stock market upheaval in China this week could convince Chinese investors to move their money into assets not linked to the renminbi currency, including B.C. real estate, in even greater volumes, according to a Canadian economist…

“Canadian real estate … because our own currency has depreciated so much … that has put Canadian assets on sale from the vantage point of, say, Asian investors,” Holt said. “If we judge Vancouver and Toronto in that context, it’s not cheap for us here in Canada … but in the context of other Pacific-Rim cities like San Francisco or Singapore, and given our currency depreciation and what you can buy cashing in on foreign currencies, we look pretty cheap right now.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/China+market+turmoil+likely+have+impact+real+estate+economists/11637481/story.html?__lsa=a30d-902f

#206 TurnerNation on 01.09.16 at 10:19 am

Fellow slaves, how about this from a random Blogspot blog. Turn your brain off and shop, watch TV, and twerk.

“The greatest injustice done to the human race is that of money. God gave us the Earth free of charge, with all of the bounties necessary for the upkeep of our bodies. Now, it is not free. We cannot go directly to satisfying our basic needs anymore, by our own efforts in nature. We must all satisfy our needs indirectly by getting that intermediate requirement called money. We do not print money ourselves, so we must get it from where the money printers have placed it or caused it to be. To do this we have to do actions that are often unrelated directly to our basic needs. We must do actions which give us access to money. This is the rub… we do not determine what actions will give us money and which won’t. Our actions must match those that are approved, such as work. It is as if the Elites own the world by owning the money. You have to get their money, their way, before you can return to your life’s task of getting your basic needs. Who owns the money can have as much as they want, and you do not deserve, or have this privilege. Most of the problems with life on Earth begins with you not having the right to as much money as you need. The Elites say which actions or niches are more money-worthy than others. Souls are very introspective, and their probings into the nature of existence and of man’s journeys through life, is the highest type of activity, using the most important organ in the body: the brain. This output is called Philosophy. Thinkers used to be respected and could support themselves by that kind of activity. In the 21st century, Philosophy is no longer a prized field.”

#207 Millennial falcon on 01.09.16 at 10:19 am

Can anyone tell me what this all means for the price of beer? …who cares about cauliflower?

#208 Balmuto on 01.09.16 at 10:23 am

#191 Sheanne Wallace
“Institutions buying CAD denominated bonds at sub 2 % are insane”

There are always domestic institutions like insurers that need to buy them for liquidity and duration. They also get a safety bid from domestic investors and even foreign investors who like the “AAA” rating.

Also, the short end of the curve does impact the long end somewhat. It’s a complicated relationship but basically the crap Canadian economy means low short-term rates for the foreseeable future which keeps long-term yields down and prices up.

However I agree that CAD bonds are toast if we see a spike in the CPI numbers. It’s a big risk.

#209 Black and White Cat Black and White Cake on 01.09.16 at 10:27 am

There are three basic things, in the fruit and veggie area, that I began doing when I was a student and continue to do today. Each helped me in buying more produce for less money, especially when the loonie is flying low.

First, consider frozen alternatives rather than fresh.

Second, if there are not any frozen options, and you still desire fresh, look at the bargain bins in the produce area of the supermarket. Sure, some items look like they have gone a couple of rounds on the losing side of a boxing match, but most items are still okay for a few more days.

Third, replace lettuce with a better option. You can get much better nutrition and value by replacing it with cheaper veggies, such as spinach or bok choy.

#210 ww1 on 01.09.16 at 10:34 am

#183 Ronaldo

Link fixed : http://www.lerouxed.com/HOME.html

#211 What are we do about it on 01.09.16 at 10:37 am

#174 waiting on the westcoast

Thanks for the information and more importantly for the sanity of asking the most important question: what are we going to do about it?

The biggest shortcoming of this country, including this blog is the small minded, trading low yield for safety attitude.

As a country we have zero moonshot plans.

We have perfected the whining and finger pointing.

#212 The American on 01.09.16 at 10:50 am

Godth, in answer to your question a few days ago, yes, I fully support gay, straight, transgender, transsexual, lesbian, questioning, and everyone in between. I could care less. People are people.

Now, let’s talk about you for a moment. I’m going to ask that you take a seat, because there a moments when I seriously question if you’ve been hitting the ol’ crack pipe like Amanda Bynes. Bye, Felicia! Dedicated to you…

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mr51afj7eJY

#213 Reality always on 01.09.16 at 10:55 am

#200 BC working guy

—-

You are trying to engage in intellectual conversation with Leo… That’s beyond his small c grade, his wisdom consists of the collection of 25 bumper-sticker slogans.

#214 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 01.09.16 at 11:16 am

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/film/the-revenant/leonardo-dicaprio-interview/

‘2015 was the hottest year in global history,’ he explains, ‘and we are actually seeing the tipping point happen right now. I witnessed it myself, first hand, on The Revenant, when unprecedentedly warm conditions in Canada meant that we had to move the whole production to Argentina in search of snow.’

—-

So the idiot experiences an Alberta Chinook and thinks he’s an expert in climate change…. holy crap..

Thank goodness he “lives in an eco-friendly apartment block in New York and drives a hydrogen-powered BMW ” between “flying around the world, working on an environmental documentary and giving rousing speeches”

In “unforgiven”, when Clint eloquently states “Take away all he’s got and all he’s ever gonna have” well there is a massive Chinook cloud in the sky behind him

Beautiful Alberta in both movies though……

#215 Godth on 01.09.16 at 11:24 am

#212 The American on 01.09.16 at 10:50 am

How much less could you care? zing…I’ll stick to beer, thanks anyway, more crack for you.
Hillary Emails Reveal True Motive for Libya Intervention
http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2016/01/06/new-hillary-emails-reveal-true-motive-for-libya-intervention/

The desperation of a dying empire (as evidenced by your choice of pop culture too). The USA; exporting war, chaos and crap culture.

#216 hope & ruin on 01.09.16 at 11:25 am

#212 The American on 01.09.16 at 10:50 am

a second link to that drag queen band? This looks like some shameless self-promotion. This is an investing blog!

#217 lala on 01.09.16 at 11:29 am

Thx Bank OF Canada for cutting the interest rates, thanks dummie Canadians for loading on debt, thanks you for making lala rich. Please buy bigger homes for more money, because house always goes up up up, same time lalas bank account get fat. Please don’t give up on your house and lala.

#218 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.09.16 at 11:33 am

@#196 Ben
“They are trying to save the banks and the boomers.

It’s time ladies and gentlemen. Boomers+ you are going under the bus. It’s so wide that you can’t walk around it even though you can see it coming.

Enjoy…..
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Ah yes, predictions of doom from the jealous GenX Millenial cohorts that arent retiring yet.
Not to worry Ben.
The Millenial cohort is larger than the Boomers. I cant wait to read the bitching, moaning and sniping from the post Millenial cohort to follow….
Shall we give that as yet unnamed cohort a politically correct , anti microaggression moniker like “Generation Z” (zombie) since they’ll be paying for the Boomers, Gen X AND the Millenial economic largess long after we’re dead?

#219 Ronaldo on 01.09.16 at 11:34 am

How Much Money Is Enough? See below. I like this concept a lot.

https://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/weekend-edition-doug-casey-how-much-money-is-enough

#220 Nagraj on 01.09.16 at 11:50 am

HOW TO MAKE CAULIFLOWER EXCITING!

Take your cauliflower and with a fruit-knife cut out every other floret.
Into the holes put broccoli florets.
So what you got now is an evenly white and green mottled cauliccoli.
Steam the whole thing to just a tad past al dente.
Serve. Call it Snow-Melting-On-The-Matterhorn.
Pass white cheese sauce in a gravy boat.

(My very late grandma worked in the Imperial kitchen in Vienna when she was young.)

[If yer gonna do that, ya might as well go whole hog and add POTATO PILLOWS. And if you can get it together fer POTATO PILLOWS you should try your hand at CONSOMME PRINTEMPS. Or goat innards stew. My grandma actually made goat innards stew, known as PEISCHL. (I hated it.)]

[For the CONSOMME PRINTEMPS yer gonna need at least eight pots on the stove all goin’ at the same time!]

PEISCHL (pronounced pie-sh-l) is another word for Poloz monetary policy.

#221 Ronaldo on 01.09.16 at 11:59 am

#210 ww1 on 01.09.16 at 10:34 am

Thanks.

#222 Leo Trollstoy on 01.09.16 at 12:19 pm

How is that shorting of USD going?

that’s a long term play. we won’t know for another 20 years. at which point the return will be 0.004%

#223 Leo Trollstoy on 01.09.16 at 12:21 pm

If you believe that Mark makes valid point that CAD is rising and there is no inflation while it is sinking against the USD (from over par to .70 cents) and cauliflower is at 7-8 bucks you need some serious (and I mean very serious) professional mental help.

reality always punishes the dumb

#224 chapter 9 on 01.09.16 at 12:25 pm

Cauliflower,broccoli,brussels sprouts,cabbage,are super foods that are rich in sulphoraphanes which are a group of antioxidant compounds that help detoxify ingested cancer causing compounds and flush them out of your body. Steam up some veggies,sprinkle on equal parts of turmeric/pepper and especially for men and prostate health, very powerful combination. Enjoy!

#225 Leo Trollstoy on 01.09.16 at 12:25 pm

Every month the U.S. posts a strong jobs advance. Every month the zero guy craps on it. Every month you fall for it? — Garth

this sums up the anti-US posters in a nutshell lol

#226 Vampire Studies GMST 454 on 01.09.16 at 12:42 pm

98 Salonist – was there something new in that link?

#227 pinstripe on 01.09.16 at 12:42 pm

There are many many opinions on what the market will do or not do. The main point is that it is an OPINION. If that OPINION was FACT that person would not be voicing that FACT in public and there would be many restrictions on that FACT even in private.

When someone wants to BUY something that person will yell SELL.

When someone wants to SELL something that person will yell BUY.

The government policy makers forced many citizens to lose ALL trust and confidence in their policies. In this cycle the masses will self-destruct. the boomers USED the system and the millennials are ABUSING the system. In the meantime TAX will definitely increase and government services will decrease. TAX on the rich is an indication that a revolution is in shsort order.

today Canadians are exposed to the consequence from the policies set by carnage, harpo and his CPC.

#228 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.09.16 at 12:44 pm

#220.
welcome back.
You’re late Grandmother must have made a killer Kaiserschmarrn.
By the way, stomach walls of any animal, cut in thin slices are delicious, particularly when cooked the Szechuan way.
Gotta come to Richmond and try.
And while there, take a tour of the million dollar crack houses being readied for demolition.

#229 Apocalypse2016 on 01.09.16 at 12:53 pm

A Tale of Two Countries:

In Canada, an average home price is $440K

In America, it is $219K

Canadians think our valuations are rational and deserved.

In Canada, the Lotto Max jackpot is $50 million. Tickets cost $5.

In America, the Powerball jackpot is $900 million. Tickets cost $2. (Comparing price per entry and odds, the costs are not far off, even with the dollar)

Canadians think our lottery is better since winners don’t pay 30% tax on winnings.

900 million.

vs.

50 million Canadian pesos.

You soon will be able to buy 50, maybe even 100 Canadian cauliflowers with that kind of money.

#230 Wolf Street on US recession on 01.09.16 at 12:55 pm

Wolf Street, who’s predictions about the Canadian real estate crash was often quoted by Garth, now warns about a US recession indicator.

http://www.businessinsider.com/rail-shipments-pointing-to-a-recession-2016-1

#231 Ronaldo on 01.09.16 at 12:58 pm

#220 Nagraj-

”My grandma actually made goat innards stew, known as PEISCHL. (I hated it.)]”

I loved the ”pickled crow gizzards my grandma used to make”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laI8xpGYKdw

Enjoy.

#232 juno on 01.09.16 at 1:41 pm

Hail to high prices.

Hail to high Housing

Hail to low dollar

That is what the fed want to do. Hold up the fabricated real estate prices. Kill the dollar making our labour dirt cheap to the world. And reduce our standard of living, collecting oddles of taxes from overvalued property values

Way to go govt, help the rich kills the poor

#233 SWL1976 on 01.09.16 at 1:53 pm

To The American

I was going to respond to your slanderous post the other day. The one you are referring to on today’s post at 212. Anyways, I didn’t simply because I didn’t want to engage in that sort of conversation. However, I will say this…

You need a reality check. Sooner or later you will get it. I would rather the former than the latter, but it seems many people like you would not. You see, I have been called crazy by people like yourself for a long time now, and at times have even maybe thought that perhaps I may be, but alas I am not. My thoughts are quite clear, concise and rational.

Awakening takes time and understanding, and is not a process which happens easily. I see many are struggling with this reality these days. This will only add to, and exacerbate the coming chaos.

Us ‘doomers’ are not waiting for or predicting financial collapse, or the collapse of the American empire. We simply understand that we are currently living through it. Many people need to zoom out and look at the big picture and forget about the day to day distractions.

Understand the folly of empire

The truth will set you free. However, I feel like you, like many others are still a long way from truly understanding the words I just wrote

#234 Mark on 01.09.16 at 1:56 pm

“If you believe that Mark makes valid point that CAD is rising and there is no inflation while it is sinking against the USD (from over par to .70 cents) and cauliflower is at 7-8 bucks you need some serious (and I mean very serious) professional mental help.”

Sheane, I think you’re missing the point. Only a portion of Canada’s consumption basket is imported from the USA, or even imported at all. While many items (such as your cauliflowers) have gone up (although often for one-off reasons, as another poster described), many items have gone down, priced in USD$ terms, and even, in some cases, CAD$ terms.

Each of us has a slightly different consumption basket, so our experience will be different. If you live on asparagus/cauliflower casserole, its no surprise to me that you’re probably a bit miserable at this point.

When StatsCan adds up, and weights all of the consumption in goods and services that Canadians buy, they’ve found that the CAD$ has lost 1.4% of its value last year. Normally the Bank of Canada aims for a 2% loss of value, hence, it could be said that, if such situation persists, that the BoC is actually failing to meet its target.

However, the BoC tends to take a longer view. Perhaps there are inflationary pressures in the pipeline. But these need to be balanced against the deflationary pressures in the pipeline, namely the fact that consumer credit is rapidly getting more expensive, the housing market is deflating in every major Canadian city, and employment loss is sapping consumptive capability from significant numbers of families, particularly in the west.

Poloz and the other Governors of the BoC will weigh these factors, and come to a decision. I am thinking, this time around, that they actually *don’t* cut, because while 1.4% inflation is on the low side, its not so low to present a serious risk of a deflationary spiral. Meanwhile, there are risks, however ever so slight, to the upside. I’m thinking no additional rate cuts until the CAD$ has returned to at least the $1.3-$1.25 level.

#235 Hope & Change (Canada) on 01.09.16 at 2:19 pm

The Big Wildcard is if professionals who qualify under the TN visa will head south in droves.

Doubtful. Imports using the H-1B visa have largely supplanted the TN. Its cheaper to import people from India than it is from Canada. Canadians have been largely locked out of the US for quite a while now.

Please do not hesitate to take that TN. Canadians have a H-U-G-E advantage now in the US.

H1B system is broken. Barely 1/3 of H1Bs applicants get their work permit each year. That is because 3x more people apply each year, as there are available visas. The application process is expensive, full of lawyer bs and in the end 2/3 of applicants will not get anywhere.

Second, you have to apply in April for a job in October. So your employer needs to spend thousands on you in legal fees, and pray that you are one of the 33% that makes it, and THEN, wait for you for 6 months.

As a Canadian, you can just walk to the border, apply for your TN, pay your 50$ fees. You’re set for 3 years and can start working in the afternoon. No lawyers, no nothing.

Sorry, H1B is not ‘cheaper’ nor is it ‘simpler’. A Canadian that is qualified for a TN will get hired in a flash over any H1B as long as they understand and can convey these facts to their future employer.

#236 Brazil ex-pat on 01.09.16 at 2:22 pm

Been watching Canada unfold from Brazil for some time now. I thought it was bad here. At least food is cheap. Looks like Canadians are going to be forced to lose weight. Sure glad I am making US dollars down here.

#237 Victoria on 01.09.16 at 2:26 pm

My husband was giving me grief about the amount of money I have been spending on groceries. We have 4 kids – one is always out (18 years old university) and the youngest (10) does not eat anything.

I sent him to do the shopping a couple of times and he could not believe it. Yes he did come home with a 7 dollar cauliflower (small one). Brussels sprouts etc. Are crazy.

#238 pwn3d on 01.09.16 at 2:39 pm

#199 broader mind on 01.09.16 at 9:36 am
So BOC gang led by Mr. Polution has found a way to deflate our housing bubble in such a way that all you lemmings feel good about your home values.Your million dollar home two years ago is worth 700 k now and dropping in USD
————–
Yeah but what’s it worth in Kroners? I mean we’re all rolling in Kroners now right?

#239 pwn3d on 01.09.16 at 2:41 pm

#198 Zorba on 01.09.16 at 9:22 am
Mark,what is your prediction for RE in Vancouver,year 2020 ?
———————
I’m going to guess something completely retarded like that even though the average SFD is worth 3 million the price has been dropping for 10 years because of the price mix.

#240 For those about to flop... on 01.09.16 at 2:43 pm

I’m gonna leave my house for the first time in a month…
I am excited but also nervous…definitely gonna lock the deadbolt as I don’t want anyone breaking in and stealing my vegetables whilst I’m away…
Maybe I will leave a couple of useless Canadian dollars on the doorstep to show them that we have nothing worth stealing…
One has to protect ones valuables!

M41BC

#241 pwn3d on 01.09.16 at 2:47 pm

#229 Apocalypse2016 on 01.09.16 at 12:53 pm
A Tale of Two Countries:

In Canada, an average home price is $440K

In America, it is $219K

Canadians think our valuations are rational and deserved.
———————–
They are actually. We have higher taxes, higher development costs, higher materials costs, smaller markets, and far less habitable land. Like Winnipeg is a major city, seriously?

Also if you add in the exchange rate I’d say the values are bang on.

#242 Mark on 01.09.16 at 2:49 pm

“Please do not hesitate to take that TN. Canadians have a H-U-G-E advantage now in the US.”

The point I made was that the employers have shifted away from Canadians and towards mostly Indian (and other foreign nationals) to fill their labour demands. The TN is great, but it takes a job offer. The H-1B, being an employer-sponsored visa, offers a certain amount of lock-in that the employers prefer, over the TN-1 which is far more flexible in favour of the employee.

H1B system is broken. Barely 1/3 of H1Bs applicants get their work permit each year. That is because 3x more people apply each year, as there are available visas. The application process is expensive, full of lawyer bs and in the end 2/3 of applicants will not get anywhere.

Sort of true. Basically what happens is that when a foreign national in the USA graduates, say, from engineering, they’re hired on the OPT visa (OPT = Optional Practical Training). The firm then starts the process of getting them a H-1B visa for a ‘permanent’ position. Obviously a significant number of those applications fail on account of the quota, so they remain on the H-1B and the employer just keeps trying again (they have 3 years to try, and Obama wants to extend to 5 years).

If this fails, then the worker typically will either go back and get their Masters (which gives them another shot at OPT and gives them access to the H-1B visa using a different pool of quota devoted to Masters graduates). Or they will be transferred to the offshore affiliate of a company, where they will come back to the USA on a L-1 visa (intracompany transfer).

The H-1B is good for ~7 years, but is indefinitely extendable so long as the employer applies for a Green Card for the employee. If an employee leaves such employer during the process, the Green Card application process is cancelled. Hence, employees will not agitate for pay raises, for promotions, for a nicer cubicle, etc., during this time out of fear of losing their job and facing deportation.

Basically the whole US skilled immigration system for non-TN-eligible professionals is geared towards keeping foreign national employees working at very low cost, not asking for raises, promotions, or moving to other employers. As a results, TN-eligible professionals, such as Canadians, have been largely locked out of the sector as Canadians aren’t particularly worried about getting a work visa (the TN is indefinitely renewable), and thus, the visa can’t be held above their heads like Damocles’ sword.

Additionally, the H-1B/L-1/OPT system allows an employer to, without cause, arrange for the cancellation of a visa. So if an employee needs significant medical care, if they get into any sort of employment-related legal dispute, etc., the employer is able to have the (former) employee deported. This does not work with the TN visa Canadians.

Sorry, H1B is not ‘cheaper’ nor is it ‘simpler’. A Canadian that is qualified for a TN will get hired in a flash over any H1B as long as they understand and can convey these facts to their future employer.

You’re right about H-1B not being cheaper as the visa itself, but the employees themselves are cheaper, and have thus supplanted TN visa recipients in the marketplace. Its about all-in costs of employment (including the cost of retention) not just the narrow cost of the visa itself. H-1Bs are preferred for that reason.

Its for such reasons that the usage of TN-1 visas (ie: Canadians) has dropped precipitously, while there has been incessant clamouring for additional H-1B visas.

#243 BobC on 01.09.16 at 2:51 pm

#225 Leo
It’s really hard to nail down what’s true and what isn’t re: employment numbers in the US. I met some friends in downtown Tampa last night. Every restaurant was packed! It wasn’t cheap places either. Yet we still pass out over a $1Trillion dollars a year in means tested welfare. Why, when everyplace you go here and in Indiana there’s help wanted signs. I will add they’re all part-time with no benefits at all.
When you have too much of anything the price goes down including labor. Yet there’s our socialist government bringing in thousands and thousands of workers to compete with Americans and lowering the value of labor.
I don’t get it. Never will I’m sure. I just know the employment numbers do not show America is winning. I’ve read the comments on here about the report. Regardless of who (zero guy) quotes the facts, they’re still facts. Hate the game, not the players. I’m sure after so many years of having a liberal government you’ll want a Trump too. We had anything but Bush and swept in Obama. You had anything but Harper and swept in T2. Good luck Canada. You should have learned from us.

#244 A box in the Sky on 01.09.16 at 3:03 pm

Geez this shouldn’t be that complicated. Vegetables are seasonal ffs.

Yeah cauliflower costs $7. Well then don’t it for the next few months. Same with brussel sprouts and green beans.

Or if you really have to have it just buy frozen, price hasn’t changed.

It’s not that complicated. In the winter the prices of berries, lettuce, zucchini, cauliflower, etc is a lot higher.

Conversely the price butternut squash, potatoes, onions, turnip, rutabaga, etc is the same as it ever was.

Are people so incapable of strategizing that they can’t even optimize their shopping by season.

#245 Nanaimo Bar on 01.09.16 at 3:16 pm

Just my opinion
Oil to $28.00
USD/CAN – to $1.4400
If BOC rate cut on Jan 20th – USD to 1.4700

US will begin exporting oil. The big question is, what are their intentions? Are they planning on exporting oil to gain new markets? Does the U.S. want to keep oil prices low to put more money in the consumers pocket to stimulate the US economy. The easiest way to enter into new markets is offer a better product at a lower price. The U.S. has the best technology and the best oil. Will there be a point where OPEC cries Uncle and they begin to slow down production? Can OPEC gets all its members to cry Uncle at the same time? Even if OPEC slows down production, will the U.S. have enough oil to keep the prices low? How much oil does the U.S have?

OPEC does not trust the U.S. OPEC’s bigger problem is that they do not trust themselves. Bottom line is the U.S. is calling the shots.

Swiss Oil Trader Vitol Biggest Buyer so far for U.S. Shake Crude
By Joe Carroll
http://bloom.bg/1P0g8rC
Bloomberg

Vitol Group,has agreed to buy two cargoes of U.S.-sourced crude.ConocoPhillips will supply the first tanker-load, made up of crude and a type of ultra-light oil known as condensate from wells in the Eagle Ford Shale formation in south Texas.That follows on last week’s deal by Vitol to buy a separate 600,000-barrel shipment of domestic crude. The producer of the oil for the first cargo was not identified.
A voicemail left with Vitol’s Houston office on Wednesday seeking details on the destination of the cargoes wasn’t immediately returned. Phone calls to two spokeswomen in the company’s London office outside of normal business hours weren’t answered

Update

Some 600,000 barrels of light sweet crude will head to a Vitol subsidiary’s refinery in Switzerland, which supplies diesel and other fuels to Northern Europe, the Wall Street Journal cited a person familiar with the matter.

http://on.rt.com/70at

#246 Bet: USD will go to 1.50 CAD on 01.09.16 at 3:55 pm

… Within the next three months!

#247 Mark on 01.09.16 at 4:06 pm

“Mark,what is your prediction for RE in Vancouver,year 2020 ?”

Vancouver’s a tough one. On the surface, it looks like a replica of central California, complete with severe over-leverage, extensive use of subprime credit, significant over-building, a weak general economy, and a significantly excess portion of its local economy devoted to housing construction, finance, and consumption related to it all. Ready to collapse 80%.

However, Vancouver is the world’s administrative epicenter of a very deeply cyclical and out of favour industry, the precious metals mining sector. Even relatively modest gains in the sector, nevermind a full reversion to long-term historic prices (as a percentage of global financial assets, for example), would create an enormous amount of value for Vancouver residents involved with the sector.

I thus personally believe that if such scenario comes about, that the experience of the ‘average’ Vancouver price will be somewhat different than the experience of the ‘average’ current Vancouver homeowner.

Right now, you essentially have two very diametrically opposed groups in Vancouver — those who invested heavily in RE, and are obviously quite wealthy. And those who invested in the PM sector, and have destroyed a lot of value, just hanging on at this point.

If the PM sector starts to do very well, it probably will mean significantly rising interest rates for the housing speculators, as credit will be in significant demand to speculate in the PM stocks. Existing owners will lose a lot of their equity on account of the rising rates and negative carry, and will be increasingly forced to sell. However, they will be selling to PM sector participants who will probably be, at such point, laden with cash.

So if such scenario comes true, in the next 5-10 years, Vancouver prices themselves might not fall all that much (perhaps a modest 20-30% down from current levels, so maybe 30-35% down from the 2013 peak, eventually fully recovering), *but* individual homeowners will have quite different outcomes if they are leveraged.

This is similar to the Toronto scenario in the 1990s, where the average homeowner suffered significantly for the decade, but prices eventually recovered nicely largely on account of people involved with Nortel and similar companies converting their stock gains into RE.

There is zero correlation between gold and houses in Kits. I think your time on this blog is nearing an end. — Garth

#248 Frank on 01.09.16 at 4:12 pm

perhaps a modest 20-30% down from current levels, so maybe 30-35% down from the 2013 peak, eventually fully recovering

You made sense up until you suggested that we’re below 2013 prices today. That is not true in any appreciable way.

#249 Mark on 01.09.16 at 4:32 pm

“There is zero correlation between gold and houses in Kits. I think your time on this blog is nearing an end. — Garth”

I beg your pardon? I didn’t imply a correlation, in fact, I actually stated that prices probably wouldn’t move all that much, and certainly not down 80%. However, who the buyers would be would likely change — the current crop of speculators holding up prices with large amounts of mortgage credit, would likely give way to investors with large amounts of cash derived from an industry which eventually will have some serious vibrance after being so out of favour for so long.

Practical investors and residents of Vancouver, of course, can protect themselves against such by holding a balanced portfolio with some at least some allocation to the primary value creating sector of their region (ie: in XIU, for instance). Such that, if the industry does explode upwards in prominence, that they won’t be priced/squeezed out of their existing ownership. Like many folks in the SFBay area seem to be complaining about at the moment, where a very vibrant tech sector is causing a significant squeeze on residents who otherwise have no connection to the primary source of value creation in the region because their portfolios are not balanced, either financially, or generally in life.

Unbelievable. — Garth

#250 james on 01.09.16 at 4:55 pm

@241 pwn3d

Canadians think our valuations are rational and deserved.
———————–
They are actually. We have higher taxes, higher development costs, higher materials costs, smaller markets, and far less habitable land. Like Winnipeg is a major city, seriously?

Also if you add in the exchange rate I’d say the values are bang on.
—————————————————————

Your obvious financial illiteracy is a good example of why the coming crash here will be so severe for many.

Ever heard of ‘recency bias’? It’s what you’re all about, dude!

The dollar’s drop is quite recent – look back a few years, and our prices were still climbing. So is the bubble all recent, especially for people not around in 1989. Look back any further, with more depth, and you see there are simply no fundamentals justifying Canada’ real estate priced so much above that of the U.S.A.. Just cheap money and dumb federal policies by conservative politicians.

Our habitable land is huge, still enormous compared to our population, so that’s a completely idiotic argument. (All of southern Ontario, for example, could be lived upon if there was the demand)

Our economy is weak and undiversified compared to the U.S.A. as well.

Rationally, our real estate should be priced at about 1/2 of U.S.A. prices.

Instead, we are 2x as much??!! Seriously!!??

We are in for a rude awakening.

Do a little investigation before you babble about how the way things were last week is the way they’ll be forever.

Here’s a start for you:

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/a-canadian-housing-chart-that-puts-the-bubble-in-perspective/

#251 Freedom First on 01.09.16 at 5:05 pm

Things are tough in Alberta. I have been giving updates for a year and a half what has been going on. Ahead of the msm every step of the way. Of course some people called me a liar on here until the msm caught up to me. I speak the truth, and the truth hurts. Notice the people on here making personal slurs against me every step of the way. Even on todays Blog.

Well here is another Alberta insight, though it is of more of a personal observance. Keep in mind, I only speak the truth. I always noticed during downturns going way back, that that was when beautiful women were coming at me from every direction, with a higher frequency than normal. However, being a Boomer, I can tell you, nothing has changed in that respect, except for one thing. Some of the women are now half my age.

Now, understand this. I lie to no one. I make it clear from the get go that I live with no one, ever. I am monogamous while I am with someone, even though some I have had around for several years. Even when I have had to let them go, as they usually ended up either wanting more, began to try to think for me, or just stopped being fun to be with, I can run into any of the women at any time, and they are happy to see me. I am a man of good character, and they know that. Life is enjoyable with me.

That being said, I have male friends who have been my friends for decades, but I wouldn’t want to live with any one of them ever. Most traveling I have done on my own, but traveling with a male friend or my girlfriend of the time, one or two weeks with them is enough. I like my space and freedom to do as I choose. I only owe society what I think I owe society, not what anyone else thinks. And, I am a lover, not a fighter.

#252 Leo Trollstoy on 01.09.16 at 5:14 pm

There is zero correlation between gold and houses in Kits. I think your time on this blog is nearing an end. — Garth

misleading new investors and wrong on deflation, USDCAD, Vancouver/Toronto RE prices, gold and almost everything else

he’s a gem

#253 Julie K. on 01.09.16 at 5:22 pm

In the end, Dogs, it IS all about the simple things.

Cauliflower is one of them.

#veggienation

#wedogsareblessed

#254 Estrella on 01.09.16 at 5:23 pm

Fyi, frozen vegetables are flash frozen, which means they don’t lose their nutritional value. Best to buy them when in season in Ont.

I have heard of Ontario have a Hot house program for winter months. We’ll see how good that works.

Best yet start a garden or become part of a farm co-op.

Root veggies last a long time. Anywho, get back to basics you know the drill

#255 Leo Trollstoy on 01.09.16 at 5:27 pm

Unbelievable. — Garth

translation: idiot

#256 Leo Trollstoy on 01.09.16 at 5:30 pm

because their portfolios are not balanced, either financially, or generally in life

your brain is unbalanced

#257 Leo Trollstoy on 01.09.16 at 5:38 pm

#239 pwn3d on 01.09.16 at 2:41 pm

it was even better wasn’t it? gold and precious metal investors will prop up the Vancouver RE market

u can’t even make this stuff up

#258 Washed Up Lawyer on 01.09.16 at 5:43 pm

The significance of the fracking revolution in the tight oil fields of the US is finally sinking into the mind of this old fool. I am not completely to blame as I was educated to the point of being useless.

It took Alberta 70 years to go from basically zero oil production to 4 million barrels per day. Those crafty Yanks added 4 million barrels per day in a five year stretch recently.

#259 Zorba on 01.09.16 at 5:45 pm

Thank you,Mark.

#260 For those about to flop... on 01.09.16 at 5:47 pm

#251 Freedom First on 01.09.16 at 5:05 pm
Well here is another Alberta insight, though it is of more of a personal observance. Keep in mind, I only speak the truth. I always noticed during downturns going way back, that that was when beautiful women were coming at me from every direction, with a higher frequency than normal. However, being a Boomer, I can tell you, nothing has changed in that respect, except for one thing. Some of the women are now half my age.

///////////////////////////////////////////

Aw geez,look what you did FF …you made me vomit up my lunch that contained a lot of expensive vegetables…
Thanks for nothing…as usual!

M41BC

#261 Extra Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 01.09.16 at 5:59 pm

#251 Freedom First on 01.09.16 at 5:05 pm

Things are tough in Alberta. I have been giving updates for a year and a half what has been going on. Ahead of the msm every step of the way. Of course some people called me a liar on here until the msm caught up to me. I speak the truth, and the truth hurts. Notice the people on here making personal slurs against me every step of the way. Even on todays Blog.

Well here is another Alberta insight, though it is of more of a personal observance. Keep in mind, I only speak the truth. I always noticed during downturns going way back, that that was when beautiful women were coming at me from every direction, with a higher frequency than normal. However, being a Boomer, I can tell you, nothing has changed in that respect, except for one thing. Some of the women are now half my age.

Now, understand this. I lie to no one. I make it clear from the get go that I live with no one, ever. I am monogamous while I am with someone, even though some I have had around for several years. Even when I have had to let them go, as they usually ended up either wanting more, began to try to think for me, or just stopped being fun to be with, I can run into any of the women at any time, and they are happy to see me. I am a man of good character, and they know that. Life is enjoyable with me.

That being said, I have male friends who have been my friends for decades, but I wouldn’t want to live with any one of them ever. Most traveling I have done on my own, but traveling with a male friend or my girlfriend of the time, one or two weeks with them is enough. I like my space and freedom to do as I choose. I only owe society what I think I owe society, not what anyone else thinks. And, I am a lover, not a fighter.

I fail to see what your lack of a breeding instinct has to do with the price of cauliflower…

#262 mike from Mtl on 01.09.16 at 6:14 pm

Don’t know where garth got that photo from but I was just at my local store and noted cauliflower was 3.99 regular price.

Personally I like pretty much every vegetable with the exception of those bastards of broccoli.

#263 Brazil ex-pat on 01.09.16 at 6:22 pm

Many Brazilians are coming to Canada to invest in RE. Mostly TO. But the opposite is true here as well. Because the $R is so low here there are many people buying up RE. The $R can’t stay low forever just like the $Cdn I suspect. RE might still be a good investment.

#264 ANON on 01.09.16 at 6:25 pm

Veggies are good! *

(*)For brewing. Never underestimate the brew. Always the last in blowing the top off.

#265 not 1st on 01.09.16 at 6:37 pm

#251 Freedom First on 01.09.16 at 5:05 pm

—–

Thanks for the update on the prostitution trade in Alberta. Now I know things are getting tough.

#266 Ontario's Left Coast on 01.09.16 at 6:48 pm

#251 Freedom First

Beautiful women half your age falling all over you, seriously? Please tell me you were wasted when you wrote this. My impression is that even barn animals would find you creepy.

#267 For those about to flop... on 01.09.16 at 6:54 pm

I know that there are a lot of people hurting in the U.S but even if you allow for cheap credit the record broken for U.S car sales has to be a really positive sign for the economy.
The numbers are impressive ,including 17.5 million total sales.
570 billion total sales at roughly 34.5 k a pop.
As I reported the other day CNNs research concluded that one f 150 was sold every minute.
Even with cheap money this still has to be seen as a great story ,not just for the car companies but all the part suppliers as well and going forward in the coming years when these cars inevitably need replacement parts.
Sources CNN and wsj.

M41BC

#268 Jadon on 01.09.16 at 7:00 pm

Cauliflower is sold by weight where I lived and I actually bought a $12 head of cauliflower, only to return it to the store when I realized the price

#269 Lea, south of the border on 01.09.16 at 7:21 pm

#241 pwn3d

… far less habitable land

Canada also has a much smaller population so I think the habitable land argument is moot.

#270 Hope & Change (Canada) on 01.09.16 at 7:21 pm

You’re right about H-1B not being cheaper as the visa itself, but the employees themselves are cheaper, and have thus supplanted TN visa recipients in the marketplace. Its about all-in costs of employment (including the cost of retention) not just the narrow cost of the visa itself. H-1Bs are preferred for that reason.

Some good points, but I wouldn’t worry about it from the point of view of a qualified Canadian being able to land a sweet gig in the US.

A well worded LinkedIn profile should land enough leads for interviews to keep most busy.

PS-> The price for cauliflower is 5.99US$ at my Fairway on the Upper West Side. They only had one left in the whole store.

#271 Warren - the lagging indicator on 01.09.16 at 7:30 pm

Well that was fast. It is time again to start re-entering your positions in your favorite preferred shares ETF. I am buying traunch #1 Monday. This is a lovely little correction that offers great opportunity for everyone with some cash to invest. Trust me, this play will pay of big in less than 3 years if you hold. (I trade these things for quick profit with the intention to hold forever. Rates will be rising in Canada after a short lag (8 months or so ) to the fed. It is hard to keep your brain from veering off into the extremes but try and keep your thoughts balanced and you will see reality easier and trading or investing will become easier.

ps – Garth, admit it, you must laugh silently to yourself at what goofy little creatures we are sometimes.

#272 Entrepreneur on 01.09.16 at 7:52 pm

Pretty soon just meat and potatoes or maybe just potatoes as meat is sure expensive. Looks like less people are buying less nitrate foods like bacon, ham, etc. and cheese will be next. Same with canned goods as consumers will look for other avenues.

I set a limit of what I would pay for an item and if too high I do not buy. If everyone did then the price comes down. Think translating this theory to high housing prices.

As for FM Bill Morneau request for suggestions: 1) read this blog, past & present, & comments 2) revamp the CRA especially for the small businesses & entrepreneurs 3) make incentives for sb & entrep. 4)less government and should not go above the revenue 5) don’t give any infrastructure money to BC as our Liberal Premiers, present & past, just ship the jobs to other countries. So what is the point?

GT1, don’t be too hard on OXI as a lot us have been taught that but that is another debate.

#273 betamax on 01.09.16 at 8:01 pm

There is zero correlation between gold and houses in Kits. I think your time on this blog is nearing an end. — Garth

Please make it so.

#274 broader mind on 01.09.16 at 8:14 pm

To- #238 pwn3d ———————————————————————–Think i’d rather have a Corona than a Kroner Danish dog.My advice is you borrow all the free CAD you can and buy USD anything you can.Pure win till oil shifts.

#275 My Life is a Pile of Shit on 01.09.16 at 8:23 pm

Half the stock markets in the world, including TSX Composite, TSX REIT index, & TSX Preferred Share Index (the last two are Garth’s darlings), are in bear market. The rest, except the US, are firmly in correction. You can ride it out, but when all the stock markets are firmly in bear market, you will think back to this moment and say, “I could have gotten out when only half the world was in bear market.” You know you’re losing your shirt if your only consolation is “You can’t lose if you don’t sell.” I’m not in the market, but if I were, I would hold my positions until I can’t stand it any longer (near the bottom); then I’ll declare resolutely, “I’m going all cash!”
Garth, before you say anything bad about gold, consider that non-Canadians would rather own gold than CAD. Gold in CAD has actually fared better than stock indices & the loonie (in USD) for the past year. So, CAD is even less loved by the market than gold.

No bear. Just a chicken. — Garth

#276 espressobob on 01.09.16 at 8:25 pm

#159 lionsroarin64
………………………….

Great comment, and nice to see Irvin Leroux rocking. Looks like ‘David’ gave ‘Goliath’ a good kick in the privates. Love it.

#277 Drill Baby Drill on 01.09.16 at 8:26 pm

“There is zero correlation between gold and houses in Kits. I think your time on this blog is nearing an end. — Garth”

Please Pathetic Blog Please I beg of you !!!!!!

#278 april on 01.09.16 at 8:35 pm

#205 – This is MSN. Be careful what you believe.

#279 Ronaldo on 01.09.16 at 8:37 pm

#274 broader mind on 01.09.16 at 8:14 pm
To- #238 pwn3d ———————————————————————–Think i’d rather have a Corona than a Kroner Danish dog.My advice is you borrow all the free CAD you can and buy USD anything you can.Pure win till oil shifts.
——————————————————————

The time to have bought was in May 2011. Cashing in on monday. Much riskier at this point. I’ll grab my 47% and run.

#280 Freedom First on 01.09.16 at 8:37 pm

People all look for income streams and assets in their own way. An understanding of human nature is worth its weight in gold. Most people don’t have it. Can’t learn. Can’t think. Look around. Sad.

#281 cd on 01.09.16 at 8:43 pm

oh cauliflower…

Most people in Canada for years have taken for granted the fact we have an abundant supply of very cheap food. Also, we have a silly sense of food entitlement, where against the will of nature we feel we need to be able to eat anything at anytime. Fresh blueberries in dec, new potatoes in may, cauliflower in jan, really? Sure, it is possible to eat certain fresh foods out of season by importing them in from a warmer climate, but it is a luxury to do so. to go to the store in the middle of winter, and get a perishable item that was grown 3000+ km away it pretty remarkable. There are alternatives, such as buying ontario grown cauliflower that has been frozen and costs less than half the price. The shocking thing is not the prices, but the fact that people don’t understand where our food comes from and the effort it took to get in there. This blog gives light that most common people don’t have a solid finanical literacy; I think people’s food literacy is perhaps even worse (you can see it with the amount of obese people out there).

#282 TRT on 01.09.16 at 8:51 pm

@Garth,

Mark’s trolling you and your blog if you haven’t figured it out yet. Trying to create a fictional personality like SM but failing.

#283 Greg on 01.09.16 at 8:53 pm

Hi Garth, re: The Big Short Synopsis, movie

It’s about the lead up to the 2008 global financial collapse.
We enjoyed it! If you looking for a movie to see.
We heard it was good from other friends.

BTW, The movie mention at the end, the name of a new/next finical instrument some banks have come up with that sounds just as bad as what lead to the 2008 financial collapse.
Sorry I can’t recall what they call it right now.

I’m sure one of the Blog dogs can recall this new/next instruments name and post it? Thanks.

The Big Short Synopsis, movie Release Date: December 23, 2015, 130 minutes
Prior to the 2008 global financial collapse in which banks screwed their customers by committing the greatest fraud in U.S. history…
Based on the bestselling non-fiction book “The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine.

#284 TRT on 01.09.16 at 8:55 pm

Or…

@Mark

Why don’t you start a blog and have a paywall. See how many people pay for your advice. Don’t give it away for free. Garth never gives the details away. If no one signs up, then revaluate your theory.

#285 Doris Delay on 01.09.16 at 9:21 pm

“This blog gives light that most common people don’t have a solid finanical literacy; I think people’s food literacy is perhaps even worse (you can see it with the amount of obese people out there).”

Totally missing the point dude. The hyperinflation in food costs is a direct result of Poloz crashing the loonie and the Liberals under Trudeau not adjusting the currency to counter the ill effects. This inflation pain is entirely unnecessary and self inflicted by incompetent management in government.

#286 David on 01.09.16 at 9:45 pm

It’s very likely going to be a great year for companies that sell pickling vinegar in Canada.Good news is cauliflower can be grown in containers at home. Don’t be a victim of high prices.

http://homeguides.sfgate.com/grow-cauliflower-containers-21922.html

#287 bcweatherman on 01.09.16 at 9:46 pm

#harperhangover They denied climate change and put too many eggs in the heavy oil basket, poisoning the national psyche in the process. When the 2008 financial collapse came, they put the economy on steroids by dropping the interest rates to zero, to save their political hides. Now we’re stuck with the consequences.

#288 Smoking Man on 01.09.16 at 10:10 pm

Use your brains dogs.

Been inundated with emails, 200 and counting.

Everyone wanting to learn forex. You can’t do this and live.

I’ve been on trade floors for 15 years, swaps, swaptions , equities. bla bla bla. I don’t do as good as my fans.

I know shit, why? because I’m an expert at the fine art of bull shit. I can smell it long before the aroma of fast talking spit mist hits my nose.

Think about it. I’m turning on my shower with a set of vise grips. If I was so rich, I would have bought a new shower control.

Forex is Dangerous, unless your from another planet, with an IQ of 800 , don’t do it.

I’m a wannabe writer.

Don’t bet on my insanity…

fk, bought that shit cottage in muskoka last night.

That too is bull shit, or is it….

Well that’s my story for CRA on the next audit.

#289 Tony on 01.09.16 at 10:20 pm

Re: #275 My Life is a Pile of Shit on 01.09.16 at 8:23 pm

Someone is predicting 3,000 dollars plus an ounce this year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yrfPAWkfJ0

At the 5 minute mark.

“2016 Prophecies from the Word of God and Predictions from His Watchman”? Yes, very credible. Just like the rest of the junk you post here. — Garth

#290 NoDebt on 01.09.16 at 10:47 pm

#280 Freedom First
You talk about ur income stream and assests all the time
I’m curious to know what your net worth is? You never got married or had kids and u have piles of money it sounds, also how much money do you make every month on your income streams? My streams just have rainbow trout !

#291 pangpangfish on 01.09.16 at 11:35 pm

Here in Plano, Texas, the cauliflower is selling for $5.19 US at a discount grocery store. After the currency conversion, it is more expensive.

#292 waiting on the westcoast on 01.10.16 at 12:20 am

Great op-ed piece by Larry Kudlow on CNBC… Basically, China devaluing is good, no trade issues for US, strong US dollar good, and a request to lower US corp taxes so all the big bad corps can repatriate their money to the US (not likely but a good idea).

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/08/what-the-fed-and-china-should-do-kudlow-commentary.html

#293 common sense on 01.10.16 at 12:26 am

#251 Freedom First.

Do you have any idea what a “Tool” is?

Flopper and I want to go out with you some night to learn how you charm the ladies….You ole sly fox you!

You never cease to amaze!

#294 Buystander on 01.10.16 at 12:55 am

An interesting read about our current Canadian predicament…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/canada-forgot-to-plan-for-its-future-by-leaning-on-oil-and-the-loonie/article28083772/

#295 Freedom First on 01.10.16 at 12:55 am

#289 NoDebt

Your Post smells fishy.

#296 worthog on 01.10.16 at 1:00 am

A job is a job is a job. And you’re still wrong. —Garth

Incorrect.

There are good jobs that provide for our needs and there are lesser jobs that don’t quite do that. The lesser service/self employ jobs don’t spin off enough wealth to grow the economy. Economies are not made from serving each other coffee.

#297 domain on 01.10.16 at 1:11 am

Well, gold has done well in Canadian dollar terms. And just like last year this time, there appears be a good opportunity which is already in progress, to turn over an easy 30% plus profit on the miners in the near-term (I am up 20% in a couple of weeks).

In fact, we may finally have formed a bottom in the gold correction, that could see the miners (which are on sale because ‘everyone hates gold’) recover the losses from 2011 to now. One of the worlds biggest miners could have been had for 1/6 of its 2011/2012 price last week, which is now improved to 1/5.

Garth, I know you dislike over-exuberance on gold, and gold bugs, but you have to admit that there is some extreme value present in many of the gold miners available now, especially those mining in stable areas of the world like Canada.

Many gold companies have become more efficient, reduced debt, and have already done what the oil sector is currently attempting to do – become profitable at a lower cost of their product. Now that some of the gold miners are profitable at the ‘bottom’ for gold, improvements in the price of gold offers an opportunity for excellent returns. Think about it, for those gold miners that have made it this far without failing, any improvement in the price of gold (or further decrease in their expenses like fuel) will make them even more profitable, and eventually the market will rotate back into this sector.

Having all of your wealth in a single asset is not a great strategy, but missing out on this opportunity is also not a great strategy. I have been averaging into this sector for 2.5 years now, and I have just doubled-down on this play. The time is right.

#298 Philburt on 01.10.16 at 2:38 am

#20 TRT
Thanks
I bought a couple 100K usd a year ago. Should have done 7 figures.
As I said we are in an inflationary depression.
Heres a piece on the US side. Time to be cautious
http://realinvestmentadvice.com/breaking-markets-sell-signals-flash-01-08-16/

#299 We need a new BofC Governor on 01.10.16 at 3:48 am

If a still to come lower loonie will generate more $US for CDN oil and more funds to pay in $CDN at home…well then, time for a new Governor.

All this does is increase household costs, encourage more borrowing/higher debt, impoverish pensioners and exacerbate any economic correction in the future.

There have been no GDP commodity or manufacturing gains to speak of…only RE GDP gains and in only 2 cities and that fuelled by more debt.

This means the BofC rate cuts are a FAILURE. More rate cuts will not help.

Get rid of Stephen Poloz and raise the rates to match those of the US.

Personal and Corporate failures help purge the economy of bad decision makers and in the end Canada will be stronger for it.

It will force Canada to be more productive and look for new sectors of wealth rather than the current hewers and drawers of water that we are.

T2 should be investing in new economic growth sectors instead of Roosevelt Depression infrastructure spending.

#300 texasteabag on 01.10.16 at 9:13 am

Who gives a crap about cauliflower

I’m 60 and live on Cheeses and Captain Crunch.

I’m fit as a fiddle

#301 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.10.16 at 9:16 am

@#251 Freedom First

It’s good to see that while the economy of Alberta is swirling the toilet bowl….. arrogance is more abundant than oil.
I’m amazed you can tear yourself away from the mirror long enough to impart your self absorbed narcissistic wisdom upon us lesser beings.
Enjoy being spoon fed porridge in the “manor” from a bored, surly girl half your age in about 25 years.
I’m sure by that time adult diapers will be 100% biodegradable so if the staff are busy you wont mind waiting…….

#302 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.10.16 at 9:20 am

@#275 My Life is a Pile of Shit

There are the rare times that I am jealous of someone elses blog moniker………….

#303 unbalanced on 01.10.16 at 9:56 am

Crowded whatever. You are jealous of everyone and just a s@#$$@ disturber. Your welcome

#304 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.10.16 at 10:36 am

@#303 unbalanced

I’m glad to know your moniker speaks volumes about you

#305 unbalanced on 01.10.16 at 11:43 am

Thank you for the compliment. Much appreciated

#306 RS on 01.10.16 at 11:57 am

I guess you’ve never heard of to app FLIPP
you can get cauliflower for 3.99 at a couple of grocery chains in Toronto.

#307 Philburt on 01.10.16 at 3:43 pm

#300 texasteabag on 01.10.16 at 9:13 am
Thats usually when you cave in, from the inside out from living that way! Good luck ;-)

#308 Blogbitch on 01.11.16 at 12:16 am

The comments section is always entertaining, even if flatulent at times. How adorable that some readers actually thought this post was about cruciferae.

#309 Willy2 on 01.11.16 at 3:45 pm

The US financial situation is actually getting worse. Because there’re 2 things happaning at the same time. After declining for several years the US budget deficit is growing again while at the same time the US trade deficit and the Current Account is shrinking. A LOT OF people wrongfully think that a shrinking Trade Deficit is good for the US, but it’s actually detrimental for the US.
But to be able to wrap one’s mind around that concept, one has to have an understanding of balance of payments issues.

#310 JimB on 01.11.16 at 4:48 pm

Hoard cauliflower? Or perhaps simply stop buying whatever imported items you can. Which is what most Canadians (except the moist ones) have been doing and will continue to do.