One of those days

NESSY NEW

Some days it’s hard to know where this blog should begin. There’s just so much pathetic news to wade through! So, snap on those sexy hip waders, and follow me. Breathe only when necessary.

Down she goes:
The dollar, oil, Alberta, the markets, federal finances – take your pick. It’s almost a perfect storm for T2 and the gender-perfect mob around him. Oil lost almost five-and-a-half per cent of its value on Wednesday, taking crude to the $34 mark. The dollar is now in the 70-cent range. Bay Street shed more skin as a result. And when the IMF lowered its forecast for global growth, it pretty much sealed the fate of the Alberta NDP, along with every other government that thinks it can spend or tax its way to prosperity.

It’s the crapstorm this prescient, oft-maligned yet always tasty blog has been warning you about for months. In a country full of house-horny, snorfling debt addicts clearly living beyond their means the whole notion of a government-engineered ‘soft landing’ is as silly as thinking you can eat the rich to feed the middle class. Alas, every generation has to learn. Now it’s your turn!

Up she goes:
On Friday the Royal Bank kicks off the latest round of mortgage increases. Yes, so much for all the macroeconomists who visit the comments section to patiently explain why rates can never swell. This is happening not only because December 16th changed everything, but also due to new mortgage market rules quietly introduced by federal regulators last year. That includes higher costs for lenders who securitize and sell their CMHC-insured mortgages plus a push by the bank cop (OSFI) to force banks to shoulder more risk by holding increased capital against mortgages.

What it means: even though the Bank of Canada is doing nothing, and may actually cut rates temporarily later in the year, mortgages are going vertical. The days of the sub-3% fiver are over. Even variables are jumping (by .15%). By the way, this rate hike does not come in isolation. RBC last raised rates (quietly) eight weeks ago, and Scotia popped a few of theirs a month back. More to come.

Down they go:
If you don’t think deflation in Western Canada matters, you’re a fool. Like bad country music and truck nuts, it’s impossible to keep this from spilling over the border. So all of the above – oil, failed politics, rate creep and economic chill – is decimating the higher end of the Calgary real estate market. Interesting, since a year or two ago this was the fastest-growing in Canada.

CALGARY Sales of million-plus properties in Cowtown last year collapsed 39.6%. Ouch. Even the real estate board is throwing in the towel. “It’s not a surprise given if you look at what happened in employment overall year-over-year,” says CREB’s in-house economist. “There was some job gains in Calgary but the losses were all in like business services and construction which tend to be more of the higher paid sectors. So not a real surprise that it starts to impact the higher end of the market and less sales activity, especially when you have uncertainty about what’s going to happen.”

Meanwhile up the road in Edmonton, an identical story is starting to unfold. last year sales fell 9% while the number of houses hitting the market exploded 66%. Condo deals tanked by 13%. Practicing for his new gig as a Comedy Central host, after handing in the keys to his leased R7, head realtor Geneva (Giggles) Tetrault said, “2015 was a steady year for real estate in Edmonton.”

Up she goes:
Or did she? Toronto realtors certainly scored the headlines they craved Wednesday morning with the latest boffo market numbers – 9% more sales in 2015 than the year before and a big 9.8% jump in average prices – but there’s more than meets the eye here. While the industry is claiming a record year in 2015, others say phooey. The numbers smell.

For example, ex-realtor and housing analyst Ross Kay correctly points out there are 21% more houses in the Big Smoke now than in 2007, when one out of every 14 houses changed hands in an active market. Last year only one of every 18 sold – so how is this a new record when activity decreased?

Silly Ross. He’s already forgotten his Realtor Math.

Meanwhile, here’s a question: A year ago the average GTA property cost $566,726 and to buy it required $17,000 in closing costs, for a total of $583,715. Today the average price is $622,217, but if you sold there would be a 5% commission, leaving you $591,106. So, in real life, the gain is $7,381, or 1.2% – and you can do better than that at the credit union, can’t you?

Down he goes:
Poor Bill. Used to make a million a year as a BSD on Bay Street. Now he’s reduced to asking the plebes what they think he should be doing to save the country from its own hormones. So yesterday the federal finance minister, Bill Morneau, launched pre-budget consultations – a tad late in the game after the Libs already jacked taxes on the successful, eviscerated the annual TFSA contribution limit and gave away billions to fight climate change in countries which never heard of us.

Anyway, do you have a message for the guy? Good. Here’s your chance. You could win a selfie!

 

303 comments ↓

#1 Geoff on 01.06.16 at 6:07 pm

First!

#2 old gringo on 01.06.16 at 6:08 pm

This should be a KILLER month for CDN and CDN stock.
Waiting for entry points.

#3 Interstellar Old Yeller on 01.06.16 at 6:10 pm

Not even a cute dog picture to cushion all the bad news?

#4 Leroy Washington on 01.06.16 at 6:10 pm

You Canadians are a truly unintelligent breed. You had a chance to learn from us ‘mericans, but you chose instead to pat each other on the back for how smart y’all were and then laughed at us down here in ‘merica for the financial mess we got ourselves in a while back.

Well, the joke is on you now, you ice hockey-loving, poutine-eating, ‘merican-hating fools. You will all suffer financially like none other. Enjoy your financial purgatory.

Ameri-CUH!!! Woo HOO!!! We’re number ONE!!!

#5 Pathcontrolmonk on 01.06.16 at 6:13 pm

And yet moldy bungalows still sell for $3 million in Vancouver…

#6 tex on 01.06.16 at 6:15 pm

Garth, no mention of the shiny new canada dollar? http://imgur.com/GLH1Ros

#7 Doug t on 01.06.16 at 6:15 pm

First

#8 Doug t on 01.06.16 at 6:17 pm

And another thing – if oil hits $20 bucks where will that take the beaver buck Garth.

#9 Josh in Calgary on 01.06.16 at 6:17 pm

And in other new, alcohol sales reached a record high in Alberta last year … burp.

#10 JG on 01.06.16 at 6:18 pm

Good grief . this is scary. From Bill’s budget consultation page. “Remember: I don’t have all the answers. That’s why I need you! The more people who take the time to share their thoughts, the more the next budget will be a reflection of the kind of real, meaningful change you’ve asked us to deliver. So be a part of the next federal budget – chip in. We are counting on your insight.”

Basically , when all goes to hell in a hand basket he can say he consulted with Canadians and gave them what they wanted. Its not his fault. We are doomed.

where are the real Leaders?? do they even exist anymore?

#11 Joe Schmoe on 01.06.16 at 6:19 pm

Haha…

What infrastructure needs can best grow the economy, protect the environment and meet local priorities?

A unicorn farm!

#12 Retired Boomer WI on 01.06.16 at 6:19 pm

Thus fart 2016 has sucked the bag! Over 500 points off the market, oil sucking more air, and don’t look now but more distressed debt here.

I got to believe there is a ton of ‘distressed debt’ in Canada as well, as your housing costs are nearly double the US averages. I however, built mine for far below todays averages, but in a cow pasture in a wee town far from the big cities lights.

So after 2 fun filled days in Madison visiting the old hood, friends, and former work mates who still must work for a living we are back in our little hamlet, or omelet.

Tomorrow will see how much further oil, and the markets might crater and smile knowing we will be minimally affected. Yeah, lost more in the last 2 days than all of 2015, but it’s only on paper.

It only becomes a loss -or a gain if you sell the dam thing!

#13 WallOfWorry on 01.06.16 at 6:19 pm

Good post focused on the issues Canada faces. Do you not see the issues being more systemic? You have to admit, to see Fischer publicly acknowledge that the Fed inflated the stock market over the past six years and there is a world of hurt awaiting those US equity holders? Should we also assess what the bond market is suggesting about the likelihood of the US moving forward with four rate hikes this year ? There is enough evidence that would suggest that the risks that you eloquently identify for Canada may play out in different variations on the global stage ?

#14 Bilder on 01.06.16 at 6:21 pm

“Like bad country music”

Is there any other kind of country music?

#15 conan on 01.06.16 at 6:23 pm

What does BSD mean? I looked it up on google and it said big swinging trunk?

Is that right or is it something else?

#16 Canadian on 01.06.16 at 6:23 pm

>Anyway, do you have a message for the guy? Good. Here’s your chance. You could win a selfie!

No thanks. I’d rather not end up in a police station and on a no-fly list ;)

#17 Penny Henny on 01.06.16 at 6:23 pm

All Canada has to do is reduce rates to zero for six or seven years and then we will be in a full blown recovery.
It worked for America!

#18 Dave on 01.06.16 at 6:23 pm

Bring back the ten grand limit for TFSA. Increase taxes for those in the highest tax bracket.

#19 Herb on 01.06.16 at 6:24 pm

Anxiously waiting to find out who will be the first poster to blame “T2” and his “tax and spend” government for this “perfect storm” and the resulting havoc.

#20 james on 01.06.16 at 6:24 pm

“There was some job gains in Calgary but the losses were all in like business services and construction which tend to be more of the higher paid sectors.”

One can only hope that his master of economics greatly exceeds his mastery of basic English grammar.

Oddly enough, that fancy budget survey comes courtesy of a private sector company (surveymonkey). If they had hired CGI it would have cost 2 billion, with a 2 year rollout.

I submit that disbanding the CMHC, eliminating various incentive programs for home purchases (e.g., RRSP withdrawals), and other measures would be a start.

One major problem facing Canada is that the banks no longer play an appreciable role in funding the development of new businesses. Why would they, when they can sit back and make tidy profits by selling mortgage securities backstopped by taxpayers? Diversifying the economy likely requires eliminating all forms of subsidy and moral hazard in the financial sector (and perhaps the other cartels).

I highly doubt the liberals (the traditional party of the cartels and the chateau riche) are about to challenge the interests of their patrons. Far easier to go after people making 300k rather than the truly powerful.

#21 BC Guy on 01.06.16 at 6:25 pm

10 years of tax cuts for the rich, tax cuts for the largest corps, signing away bits and pieces of Canada’s manufacturing and sovereignty with bad trade deals obviously didn’t and isn’t helping our economy, the TSX or tax revenues.

You keep forgetting, we’re currently seeing the macro-economic results of 10 years of Harper testing his Conservative ideologies. Too early to blame the Boy Wonder or Rachel Notley for the current mess.

If Canada had a balanced economy based on much more value-add, more manufacturing, more high tech, smarter development of our resources, less government and personal debt due to low interest rates, the C$ and TSX would be faring much better. Poloz could actually raise rates to defend our dollar and we’d be more like Switzerland, instead of what Harper turned us into a frigid banana republic with a Peso for the currency.

#22 Penny Henny on 01.06.16 at 6:27 pm

I would worry about the markets but I have 5x’s as much in GTA real estate. So my portfolio is doing ok.

#23 FIGuy on 01.06.16 at 6:29 pm

Mortgage Arrears as reported by the CBA are declining in Alberta. Why would that be?

#24 Panhead on 01.06.16 at 6:31 pm

Latest from the trenches in 604land …
Some “ investment” firm is now advertising on the local shill radio station … CKNW … advising us to defer paying our property taxes and “invest” the money with them … better get right on this opportunity … don’t want to miss out.

#25 Nick on 01.06.16 at 6:31 pm

…and the mainstream media is talking about pop culture instead.

#26 Nick on 01.06.16 at 6:33 pm

You Canadians are a truly unintelligent breed. You had a chance to learn from us ‘mericans, but you chose instead to pat each other on the back for how smart y’all were and then laughed at us down here in ‘merica for the financial mess we got ourselves in a while back.

Well, the joke is on you now, you ice hockey-loving, poutine-eating, ‘merican-hating fools. You will all suffer financially like none other. Enjoy your financial purgatory.

Ameri-CUH!!! Woo HOO!!! We’re number ONE!!!

***************************

Canadians are passive dummies.

#27 hope & ruin on 01.06.16 at 6:34 pm

The Liberals fielding questions and suggestions from university students. One of the most liberal, left wing demographics. I’m so impressed with their transparency.

I wonder how many of these kids are hoping to score public sector jobs?

I want to see Morneau field questions from the 30-yr old coke heads at my plant. Now that would be entertaining…and just as useful.

#28 A Canadian Abroad on 01.06.16 at 6:34 pm

HNY

Just a couple of small updates:

Texas Real Estate – After 9 months listed, we FINIALLY sold our home! Org asking was $400k, sold for $300k. The RE market is dead over there. CAD Friends also saw what we went through and listed their home (Pending) as they didn’t want to go through the pain as well. Everyone is getting out. Anyone that says RE won’t go down in $$ never sold in down market.

Calgary – The O&G pain is spreading to non-O&G businesses (Even manicure shops). Business owners we talk to all say business is way down.

#29 FormerSaskie on 01.06.16 at 6:35 pm

Do the survey Garth, you may save the country!

#30 Almost Retired on 01.06.16 at 6:37 pm

Yea, and the DOW is down almost 600 points in the first 3 days of the year.

#31 Godth on 01.06.16 at 6:38 pm

I find it pretty funny that you create the impression that Canada is an isolated incident. I find it hilarious that you blame a newly minted NDP in Y’Alberta for their financial woes after 40+yrs. of Harleys and pointy boots.

The global economy has been under the thumb of this neo-liberal (ultra-conservative, pro transnational corporation) ideology since the days of Ronnie and Maggie, and a Fried Man, but it’s all the fault of immediacy bias when convenient. Tell me more.

This has been building for decades and everyone partied like there was no tomorrow, tomorrow always arrives…surprise!

I can only hope that people are geared up for some off-roading because 2016 looks like it’s going to be down the mountain and through the river.

#32 gut check on 01.06.16 at 6:40 pm

From the Bill Morneau “We love you and want to hear your ideas” page:

“Our Government has promised real change in Canada. That means investing in middle class families and making sure they have every opportunity to succeed. It means creating jobs by making the right investments in roads, bridges, transit, housing and green infrastructure. ”

I am so sick of this.
more CONSTRUCTION.
Seriously????
SERIOUSLY?

Here are the problems with this:
1. The same trick we’ve always tried (and failed at)
2. Temporary band aid solution
3. Sorry guys, but it is gender biased. How many of these jobs will go to females, and how many of the companies that will get contracts are owned by females?

What we NEED, Bill, for starters, is INNOVATION.
We need seed money for small to mid sized businesses.
We need to banish inter-provincial trade barriers.
We need cheaper, faster transportation from coast to coast.
We need a more affordable, reliable postal service.
We need to eliminate the red tape to start businesses.
We need lower payroll taxes
We need simplified Revenue Canada obligations
We need better re-training programs and cheaper education.
We need to stop double dipping whereby retired people collecting pensions can work full time too.

We need a bunch of things Bill but more [email protected] rock crushers & excavators all over our cities and highways isn’t one of them.

#33 Retired Boomer WI on 01.06.16 at 6:40 pm

Strange that the Calgary Herald found a picture of
Leroy Washington to put on their front page.

Good picture though…

#34 lala on 01.06.16 at 6:41 pm

Thank you RBC for paying me 6.3% a year. Special thanks to all Canadians for buying and selling houses like crazy, without you I’ll be poor. Your house always goes up, up, up. Don’t give up on your house and lala.

#35 Cash is King on 01.06.16 at 6:42 pm

As per his 2013 book, Bill already knows what he wants us to do. Work until 66/67, retire and have your health care coverage reduced by means (income) testing.

The words “Poor” and “Bill” should never be mentioned in the same sentence.

#36 gut check on 01.06.16 at 6:42 pm

@#12 Retired Boomer WI on 01.06.16 at 6:19 pm:

After my grumpy post I looked up and read this line that you wrote:
“Thus fart 2016 has sucked the bag”

made me laugh out loud. :) thank you for (inadvertently) dragging me out of my negative mental state.

#37 Message to Bill Morneau on 01.06.16 at 6:42 pm

1.Tax capital gains as full income when earned via stock options and shares paid to execs. They have taken no risk, and deserve no special treatment.

2.Tax capital gains slightly less than income when they are the result of investment of after tax dollars, not with a current employer contribution.

3.Make banks much more responsible for mortgage debt.

4.Fully investigate and tax and prosecute real estate flippers who owe tax on their transactions.

5.Restore the HST to the previous level and prepare to increase it.

6.Improve and enhance the CPP. More and more people actually will be depending on it.

7.RSPs are not working – most financial planners (not Garth) are corrupt and incompetent, stock markets are rigged and still too poorly regulated and so most investors just won’t make it by themselves. Save money by reducing RSP eligibility amounts and transfer the amounts to an improved CPP.

8.Keep the TFSA, only consider increasing it if the above measures produce any room for savings and earnings that can be tax exempt.

9.Introduce stronger measures like other nations to reduce international speculation and especially land ownership of Canadian real estate.

10.Enact measures that help out the average and lower income people most. There is overwhelming evidence that those are the things that will help the overall economy the most.

#38 Godth on 01.06.16 at 6:45 pm

#4 Leroy Washington on 01.06.16 at 6:10 pm

Got a gun? If yes then get two, three or four.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMyWS6gf_wQ

#39 jess on 01.06.16 at 6:48 pm

“Money for Nothing” by Professor Ludovic Phalippou of Oxford attests. The entire video is worth watching, and the critical section starts at 8:00 especially his translation of the services agreement

Published on Oct 30, 2014

Transaction and monitoring fees – featuring Blackstone, TPG, Apollo and KKR

Recently he was named as one of the “40 Most Outstanding B-School Profs Under 40 In The World”, mostly as a recognition of his teaching achievements

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1paFqPIj6Q#t=18
http://www.wsj.com/articles/private-equitys-hidden-fees-totaled-20-billion-1450051201
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/12/private-equity-tax-games-another-example-elite-lawlessness.html
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/12/partial-tally-of-hidden-private-equity-fees-6-of-equity-invested.html

As Phalippou has “translated” these service agreements for the benefit of his students:
I may do some work from time to time
I do some work, only if I feel like it. Subjective translation: I won’t do anything.
I’ll get [in this case] at least $30 million a year irrespective of how much I decide to work. Subjective translation: I won’t do anything and get $30 million a year for it.
If I do decide to do something, I’ll charge you extra
I can stop charging when I get out (or not), but if I do I get all the money I was supposed to receive from that point up until 2018.

#40 Victoria Real Estate Update on 01.06.16 at 6:48 pm

It’s impossible to fix an economy by making it easier and easier for people with no money to qualify for mortgages and effectively bid up house prices. That’s exactly what has happened in Canada since 2000.

That’s always a recipe for major economic problems in the future, which we are starting to see now in Canada.

Bubble house prices help mask the economic problems of a country while house prices rise, but the overvaluation of housing makes things a lot worse for everyone when house prices inevitably correct.

Basically, sky-high house prices brought on by easy and cheap credit ruin the economy.

Canada’s manufacturing base has shrunk dramatically because the cost of production is too high (this has a lot to do with bubble house prices) in Canada and we are no longer competitive. The US, on the other hand, has been since house prices corrected back to the long term mean.

Canada’s economic problems will continue to worsen until house prices undergo a major correction.

#41 For those about to flop... on 01.06.16 at 6:49 pm

Bill Morneau, launched pre-budget consultations – a tad late in the game after the Libs already jacked taxes on the successful, eviscerated the annual TFSA contribution limit and gave away billions to fight climate change in countries which never heard of us.

/////////////////////////////////////////
What the Liberals did to the TFSA is still a four letter word in our house!

M41BC

#42 Smoking Man on 01.06.16 at 6:50 pm

But PC Has Gone Absolutely Batshit Crazy!!!!!

Everyone knows I hate most and every teacher. But every now and then there are exceptional ones that I like, for the simple reasons, they teach.

Take this Man, Professor Michael Persinger, A man worthy of the coveted Smoking Man’s PhD of Hedonomics distinction. I don’t give those out lightly. In fact, I have never given one out.

He just got booted from teaching an introduction to Psychology at Laurentian University in Sudbury, his crime? Having students sign a “Statement of Understanding” that he will be swearing and using none-PC words, and lists them in the document. It’s basically a comedic warning, if you’re a tin skinned sissy you can take a pass, it`s cool. I want people to stand up a debate.

It’s a hilarious document which green lights his students to think and go after him when he gets out of line, or says something offensive, entirely his goal.

Short of what I do on here when sober, apart from near perfect timely market predictions. Anything that gets a good debate going is a good thing for society.

Download the PDF from link to see the words he’s using.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/laurentian-persinger-freedom-of-speech-1.3391274

He’s been doing this for the last 10 years with no issue. Only admirers. Now that we have an Activist Premier running the province, it has now become an issue. Out of all those foul words listed in his Statement of Understanding only one word that got him into trouble if you listen the audio and read the comments, it is a word people in the UK often refer to as a cigarette.

The man is clearly a brilliant teacher, teaches his students to think for themselves. But he’s crossed the line with a word more reviled than Hitler in the province of Ontario; which is now strictly forbidden to ever be spoken again in Wynne’s World of Wackiness. Hence the Wynne brown shirts nailed him. The context in the way he used it is irrelevant.

Hell I won’t go near it, I’m not an idiot, maybe in my book, going for shock and immaturity rather than sales. But I must make a confession here, I do think it at times, and all the other ones he listed. IN BOLD CAPITAL MENTAL LETTERS; especially when I read the Toronto Star.

The literary humour in Wynne’s wacked out Man hating ads that closes with, “If it’s not ok to say, It’s not ok to do.”

Am I the only one that sees the twisted Irony in that phrase?

Professor Michael Persinger I herby grant you with honors;
A PhD in Hedonomics.

#43 rk usa on 01.06.16 at 6:51 pm

this crazy (from the G & M)

Canadians have truly lost their marbles

and these figures relate to a housing boom that has been going on for 15 plus years now

Father-flung and more affordable suburbs saw even bigger gains. In New Tecumseth, south of Barrie, the benchmark price for detached homes was $408,000 in December, a nearly 20-per-cent jump from the previous year. In Newmarket, benchmark detached home prices rose more than 17 per cent to $642,700. But prices also soared nearly 16 per cent in the less-affordable suburb of Richmond Hill, where the benchmark price of a detached home topped $1-million in December.

#44 Freedom First on 01.06.16 at 6:52 pm

Yes. See the photo today. Underwater. Many Canadians don’t know what it feels like to be underwater……yet.
However, many Albertans know now what it feels like, and many many more are going to learn. And a lot of them know it.

Underwater, yes, that is a time when people always sell. Either because they have to, or they simply cannot control their emotions and they panic. Human nature. It is always the same. Except for guys like me of course.

I wrote within the last couple of years some of the movements I made, and that the time for feasting was coming. I also wrote in the last couple of years some of the sells I made, some of the holds I have, and recently, some of the buys I made. All were ETF’s that I mentioned, except for my 10 and 20 year Real Return Bonds.

Today, more nibbling. ETF’s. I think really really good deals, but waiting for the feasting. 2015 was a good deal year, and 2016 is looking even better.

I like liquidity, cash, cash flow, income streams, balance, diversity, and 0 debt. I hold no individual stocks. Those are for the gamblers, the ultra high net worth, the greedy, the genius, and the idiot. My LOC is only for rapidity and ease.

Also, home is where I live, be it what I own, or what I rent. I have owned 2 houses I lived in. Wonderful deals. Never bought a house until my net worth was higher than the property. I enjoyed buying, but I enjoyed selling them more. I have 0 emotions when it comes to buying or selling anything. I am a numbers man.

Leverage is great on the way up, on the way down, not so much. I wouldn’t know of course, it is only what I hear, and see.

When it comes to money, or wants, be patient and smart. Anyone following Garth’s advice has done well over the years. It is not about hitting home runs. It is about having a life long financial stability. Financial Principles always beats stupid.

#45 Serenity Now on 01.06.16 at 6:52 pm

With taxpayers being forced to back the housing market if it ever collapses, why don’t we have access to any real housing data?

We’re basically shareholders but we aren’t allowed to look at the books. Sweet… Where do I sign up?

#46 Boombust on 01.06.16 at 6:54 pm

#4 Leroy,

So true, thanks to Harper and his cronies who drove this country into the ditch.

Now, buggar off.

#47 Mark on 01.06.16 at 7:01 pm

Bill Morneau,

1. Dismiss the entire Board and Management of the CMHC immediately. Replace the Board with individuals not connected to the financial or real estate sectors. Separate CMHC’s “mortgage insurance” operations from the “social housing”, and “engineering research” mandates of CMHC.

2. Meet with provincial counterparts and lay down an ultimatum to properly regulate provincially regulated institutions (read: Credit Unions).

3. Come up with an orderly scheme to phase out CDIC insurance, and to inform all people who lend money to Canadian banks (“deposit”) of the fact that banks are borrowers and “depositors” are legally unsecured creditors.

4. Commit to gradually phasing out CMHC’s activities in the financial markets, while making good on all existing promises.

5. Beg the PM to enact a commission of inquiry to determine the cause, and solutions to the crisis of engineering unemployment/underemployment in Canada. Engineers being at the heart of the economic engine that ultimately sustains and grows the economy.

6. Implement aggressive public service compensation cuts in accordance with labour market principles, and cap government pension payouts at $100k/year for people retiring greater than 5 years from now.

7. Work on a long-term framework towards eliminating registered plans altogether, such as RPPs, TFSAs, RRSPs, RESPs, etc. Replace them with cumulative income tax exemptions on certain amounts of investment income.

8. Make EI an optional program and/or shut it down.

9. Make CPP optional for those who can prove they’re saving for retirement through other private sector plans.

10. Implement mandatory financial education in all schools, particularly concerning the structure of investments and capital markets. Canada once had a “Canada Fitness Program” for physical fitness, why not a “Canada Financial Fitness Program” for students? All students graduating should understand the difference between debt and equity, for example.

#48 TecnoBill on 01.06.16 at 7:03 pm

@#15 Conan: BSD could be a reference from the book The Big Short – Big Swinging Dick

#49 Shawn on 01.06.16 at 7:05 pm

Here is the global verdict:
From the 2014 highs in $US (except XIU in $CAD)…
Europe (VGK) down 21%
Emerging Markets (VWO) down 30%
Asia Pacific (VPL) down 15%
Canada (XIU) down 17%
Canada (EWC in $US) down 36%
China large cap (FXI) down 36%
China total mrkt (MCHI) down 33%
Brazil (EWZ) down 75% since 2011 highs
Mexico (EWW) down 36% from 2013 highs
United States total mrkt (VTI) down 8%
Nasdaq (QQQ) down 6%
Whole World Index (VT) down 13%
Verdict: the US is the best house on a very bad street

#50 S.Bby on 01.06.16 at 7:06 pm

In the U.S. of A. people aspire to be entrepreneurs and business owners. In Canada-land people aspire to be government workers. In the States, government employment is seen as second-rate. That says a lot aboot our two countries.

#51 crossbordershopper on 01.06.16 at 7:06 pm

All the new finance minister has to do is the above.
1, instigate a death tax, 10%, then 20% then 30% on certain levels of assets. primarily a persons home, they would disburse all their money before death, so that will bring in billions. and no one would complain too much because 85 year old sick people dont usually vote.
2, lottery tax, if you win 10 milliion you pay 25% tax, that will bring in billions,
3, has to get the economy going the only way, a real investment tax credit, give everyone say a 5 grand or 10 grand annual limit the hell with a tfsa. to buy what a gic, an etf? we need jobs, get your buddies together and you all through in the 5 or 10 and roll the dice on a deal. sure you might loose, but you can write it off, in full no acb bs stuff. the new dry cleaners, chicken franchises out there will balloon. high tech companies etc.
4, weed, simply put it out there, the mob wont like it , but hey 10 billion a year in revenue say 28% tax just like colorado and everyone will be high sure but we have legalized everything else pretty much as long as the government controls it

#52 Herf on 01.06.16 at 7:07 pm

#15 conan

“What does BSD mean? I looked it up on google and it said big swinging trunk?”

Berkeley Software Distribution – a version(s) of the UNIX operating system. The OS pedigree from which Apple’s Macintosh OS is derived from.

You know, UNIX (eunuchs), what Canada’s economy and its political leaders have become?

http://www.bsd.org/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Software_Distribution

OK, so I don’t have a clue what Garth meant by the term “BSD” when referring to Morneau the finance minister, but I stand by my interpretation/analogy.

#53 Godth on 01.06.16 at 7:10 pm

#32 gut check on 01.06.16 at 6:40 pm

East West transmission lines would be a start, you know, in a real country rather than to just supply the USofA. A high speed railway (coast to coast) would be pretty cool too but that’s a big ask in a second world country.

Just Imagine what we could’ve done, or maybe still could do, if the bank of Canada was still being used as designed. Nah, good enough to build the country up from agrarian status but now we’re rich and can afford to pay compounding interest to private banks! Progress rules! Viva financialization and globalism! Viva our peso!

Personally I find it all pretty funny because I don’t give a shit. I used to try but it’s just too painful, the more I read the more I know I don’t know and the more I realize it’s all just too far gone. Viva Propaganda, ignorance and anti-intellectualism! Viva pseudo democracy! Viva USA oligarchs! Viva poverty! Viva,viva, viva!

My house is bigger than your house though – look at me! Viva!

#54 Quebec is Great on 01.06.16 at 7:10 pm

#32 gut check —

Great post … you are right on the money!

#55 8102 on 01.06.16 at 7:12 pm

I remember a 65 cent dollar in the 90’s and remember being happy when it finally climbed to 70 cents.

My, how times have changed…

The previous government owns the housing mess, T2 inherited it from Harper, something like Bush handing the 2008 crisis in the US to Obama.

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.06.16 at 7:13 pm

@#$ Leroy Washington

Well your claims of being #1 are argueable….and regardless of what your President attempts to do to save you from yourselves.

You’re #1 in mass killings and gun sales.
Quite a legacy.

#57 AlbertaGuy on 01.06.16 at 7:13 pm

Watching the google hangout,,,,painful to watch..wayne gretzky couldnt have skated around the questions any better..lots of verbal stickhandling….many non answers provided….technology also made it painful…not ready for prime time

#58 jess on 01.06.16 at 7:15 pm

I wonder about the “diguised ” Disclosure Failures
management fee waivers/rebates/accelerated fee /carried interest etc

e.g Blackstone Charged With Disclosure Failures
Private Equity Advisers to Pay Nearly $39 Million Settlement
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.06.16 at 7:19 pm

@#21 BC Guy
You “left” out ( bit of a socialist joke there…..sorry). The Bolivarian economic dream of;
a) free houses and land for all
b)$0.10/gallon gas
c) free medical.
d) red Tshirts for everyone
e) a Venezulan flag
f) a Hugo Chavez(R.I.P. El SupremeO) poster
g) No taxes for the poor( which would be basically everyone after the rich left.

#60 Brian Ripley on 01.06.16 at 7:20 pm

Yes the GTA housing number are out today, and as a reference here is my comparison chart between Vancouver and Toronto housing prices:
http://www.chpc.biz/compare-toronto–vancouver.html

Tthe 10 Year SFD Inflation Rate:
​VAN = 120% and GTA = 103%

But even more dramatic is the Bank of Canada Commodities index (in CAD) which I have overlaid on my “real price” of Vancouver, Toronto & Calgary SFD chart: http://www.chpc.biz/real-price-of-housing.html

In the 2008-09 commodities correction, the CCI dropped 44% in 7 months… a fast correction and turn-around by the animal spirits.

The current ongoing destruction of the CCI is now down 39% in 18 months. It’s what deflation looks like in real assets.

#61 Goldie on 01.06.16 at 7:20 pm

It’s a good thing when a government wants to consult with the people over any major issue. In the case of the budget, consultation with the public probably won’t be of much use, as the government will not likely be willing to share all of the revenue information needed for people to make informed decisions about funding and programs.

People are also likely to champion the things which benefit them personally. Many others will simply use the consultation to criticize the government, not offer helpful advice.

Hopefully a few well meaning and qualified people will be able to get their ideas through, but otherwise I would not expect much to come from public consultation on such a complicated subject. Remember: many Canadians can’t even balance their own household budgets!

Still, I support the idea in general. I wish they would offer consultations for other issues on which they routinely ignore the public’s opinion.

#62 BC Guy on 01.06.16 at 7:23 pm

Here’s my response to Bill Morneau:

1. How to help the middle class:
Too many middle-class jobs have been outsourced to 3rd world countries. Telus outsourced tech support to the Phillipines, the 6 big banks outsourced their IT to India and Pakistan, Teck and other companies outsourced some of their operations to foreign workers and TFWs. The TPP trade deal will only make matters worse and send more jobs overseas. Time to encourage Canadian companies to hire Canadians and not outsource to 3rd world countries. We don’t want to have to compete with 3rd world countries wages who have little or no environmental standards or labour standards. The best way to support the middle class is to penalize Canadian corporations who outsource their work overseas and reward those companies that hire Canadians.

2. Infrastructure:
Make it easier for electric utility companies to buy and sell electricity from residential or business users and encourage the utilities to work with private corps, insurers, regulators and municipalities to install solar, and other alternative sources of electricity.

Revitalize the passenger rail and bus system in Canada.

3. Economic Development:
Too much wealth is concentrated in the major centres of Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa and Montreal. The federal and provincial governments should move more services out of the large centres into smaller towns. They should make more “crown land” available for development and purchase by average Canadians (not speculators and the wealthy corporations). This would alleviate the big-city congestion by encouraging more people to move to rural areas and diversify our economy. It would also create jobs for electric utility companies, road building, surveyors, building contractors, electricians, Telcos and Internet Service Providers.

4. Yes, Canada is a large country with a huge land mass. Unfortunately, most of the land is not available for purchase because it is “crown land” or owned by the 1%. The large land owners pay a relatively low amount of taxes, especially if they have a few herd of cattle (they get the agricultural tax rate, which is much lower). By taxing the large land holders at a higher rate, it would encourage them to sell and subdivide and make more land available for average Canadians who want to start up a small farm, or business in a rural area. (large Prairie grain farmers should be exempt of course)

#63 NOTHING SURPRISES on 01.06.16 at 7:23 pm

We Canadian Snowbirds wintering in Florida.

Shiny new cars, SUV’s and trucks.
People patronizing all the restaurants!

But Going Up.
The U.S. debt.
Now beyond recovery!

Coming Soon.
The right to withdraw cash or use your credit card.

This will also be the scenario in Canada.

#64 common sense on 01.06.16 at 7:24 pm

Call it gambling but only 3 trades for 2016:

LONG USD

SHORT OIL

SHORT CANADA

Enjoy y’all.

Grasshopper.

#65 Money Coach on 01.06.16 at 7:26 pm

The latest higher property assessments are making some of us feel richer, some of us feel squeezed and some of us feel plain priced out!

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/rising-house-prices-making-us-richer-christine-williston

#66 not 1st on 01.06.16 at 7:28 pm

And down she goes…china fakery and the US feds economic lift off plan.

Apparently the market makers have different data than ol yellen does and they have had a month to digest it. Comical….

#67 SmallBusiness on 01.06.16 at 7:31 pm

Not to gas light the fear mongering in AB … but …

I work with a few high volume builders in Edmonton and one of them has 120+ homes out in the market on speculation. That number is supposed to be closer to 50 at any given time.

Anyone with a pair of working eyes can see that Spring is looking rough for new construction in Edmonton and likely even worse in Cow Town.

It will come back but who knows when. Could get nasty out there.

#68 Patrick on 01.06.16 at 7:32 pm

#4 Leroy “Pretending To Be An American” Washington

Hey Leroy , still living in Scarborough?

#69 Arb Watson on 01.06.16 at 7:33 pm

So its all about inflation which so far has been subdued in the recent years. Fed will be less likely to increase rates if there is no inflation. Last thing anybody wants is deflation as the US is swimming in debt. Stagnant wages, strong US dollar and falling commodity prices have led to low inflation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-06/inflation-now-guiding-light-on-fed-s-no-hurry-rate-rise-path

#70 Smoking Man on 01.06.16 at 7:38 pm

#32 gut check on 01.06.16 at 6:40 pm

Perfect….

#71 Arb Watson on 01.06.16 at 7:39 pm

How to help Canadians?

Teach every millennial about the amortization schedule.

#72 PGer on 01.06.16 at 7:40 pm

I think that T2 will forever be remembered for his ‘Sunny Days’ comment (and selfies), just before Canada fell off the economic cliff.

I don’t think that he and his newbies have the stuff to nurse a country out of recession – but I guess we’ll see.
Energy East approval would be a good start for jobs and infrastructure for the country, and it’s actually privately funded! On another note – good for TRP for suing the US for Obama’s obvious breach of NAFTA for blocking Keystone – about time.

#73 NoOneOfConsequence on 01.06.16 at 7:42 pm

Even though it appears that 2016 will continue an apparent downward spiral for many folks, I have to say that it’s looking very exciting for myself personally.
As a free-lance programmer, specializing in efficiency software for business…this weakness is creating a huge demand for me.
People want their systems to do more, to enhance customer service, to make their PLC controlled systems more efficient, but reduce the number of man-hours required to do so.

I guess I am trying to say that there is a silver lining in all grey clouds. My confirmed sales for the first two quarters of 2016 is 40% higher than last year.

It’s not all doom and gloom folks…smart business people are simply looking for better ways to spend their money….

#74 saskatoon on 01.06.16 at 7:43 pm

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz

there is much evidence indicating that increased gun ownership functions to DECREASE gun crime.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2013/05/14/disarming-realities-as-gun-sales-soar-gun-crimes-plummet/

switzerland, norway and finland all have higher rates of mass-shooting deaths per capita than the u.s..

don’t you get tired of lying so much?

don’t you get tired of being wrong…again?

#75 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 01.06.16 at 7:45 pm

It was a golden day.

The yuan set the scene. That means more capital flight from China that is not going to Vancouver RE. Of course we cannot pop the bubble until the last 5% of buyers crowd in.

#76 White Crock BC on 01.06.16 at 7:46 pm

Macy’s is cutting 4,000 jobs after disappointing holiday sales. They’re also closing 32 to 40 stores.

Maybe the US economy isn’t doing as well as some may think.

Then again, those 4,000 can always get newly created jobs at Smith and Wesson.

#77 Godth on 01.06.16 at 7:47 pm

#42 Smoking Man on 01.06.16 at 6:50 pm

Persinger was/is studying some pretty interesting/funny stuff too. A properly wonderful eccentric. I don’t really even pay attention to this country at all as it’s obvious that we just follow, or lag, the USofA by 5-10 yrs. in almost every cultural trend. They’ve been going crazy down there for years over identity politics and PC lunacy. Since the fall of the USSR, and the destruction of that evil other binary, everything has gone more crazy. The left has gone crazy over minutiae (probably out of impotence) and the right has gone crazy with taking over the world. Situation normal, just more extreme, though the left is barely center now and the right is off the chart.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwMVMbmQBug

I don’t see it ending well at all but that was never guaranteed.

#78 Darryl on 01.06.16 at 7:49 pm

#37 Message to Bill Morneau on 01.06.16 at 6:42 pm

1.Tax capital gains as full income when earned via stock options and shares paid to execs. They have taken no risk, and deserve no special treatment.

2.Tax capital gains slightly less than income when they are the result of investment of after tax dollars, not with a current employer contribution.

3.Make banks much more responsible for mortgage debt.

4.Fully investigate and tax and prosecute real estate flippers who owe tax on their transactions.

5.Restore the HST to the previous level and prepare to increase it.

6.Improve and enhance the CPP. More and more people actually will be depending on it.

7.RSPs are not working – most financial planners (not Garth) are corrupt and incompetent, stock markets are rigged and still too poorly regulated and so most investors just won’t make it by themselves. Save money by reducing RSP eligibility amounts and transfer the amounts to an improved CPP.

8.Keep the TFSA, only consider increasing it if the above measures produce any room for savings and earnings that can be tax exempt.

9.Introduce stronger measures like other nations to reduce international speculation and especially land ownership of Canadian real estate.

10.Enact measures that help out the average and lower income people most. There is overwhelming evidence that those are the things that will help the overall economy the most.
————————————————————–
Didn’t you miss
11
Raise Carl Marx from the dead so that he can lead us forward.

12 Change the Canadian flag to all Red .
13 Kill all the boomers and take their money.

#79 common sense on 01.06.16 at 7:53 pm

Freedom First: please specify what type of “movements you made. I trust they were financial in nature. If not, let’s not go there.

Country music today is NOT music..Listen to Alt Country, Americana if you want to hear proper country music or the style prior to the 1980’s…the rest is basically ear rape.

Great comment S. Bay Re: Cdns hoping for the holy grail of obtaining a gov’t job. You are so accurate as my friends working in Us gov’t positions earn 30-40% less than their Cdn counterparts and are not exactly proud of where they work vs. the private sector…I guess us Conservative Cdns are used to being taken care of, thus the so called security of many brain dead yet secure gov’t positions.

#80 For those about to flop... on 01.06.16 at 7:54 pm

I’m betting my TFSA money this year that Leroy Washington and Leo Trollstoy nee Toiletspray are one and the same .Book it!

M41BC

#81 Debt's Dark Embrace on 01.06.16 at 7:54 pm

Get the oil to tide water.

#82 MSM-Free Zone on 01.06.16 at 7:58 pm

Given all the religion-based conflict going on in the world right now, I prefer to abstain from affiliating myself with any particular religion, but, given recent world financial events, I’m starting to completely comprehend why most religions historically frown on gambling and debt as a means to an end.

As history has proven time and again, the results are entirely predictable.

#83 Sam on 01.06.16 at 8:01 pm

-The dollar, oil, Alberta, the markets, federal finances-

u forgot personal debt levels.

#84 Smoking Man's trading mentor on 01.06.16 at 8:03 pm

What’s really surprising is the CAD dollar didn’t fall even more, suggesting it’s an oversubscribed trade in the short term. Over the next few days:
More negative leaning, but not substantial, bad news implies minimal downside,
No news implies a technical reaction rally, say 40 to 80 BP,
Slightly positive news implies start of a minor uptrend, say 75 to 150 BP
Unexpected significant positive leaning news (example, recognized oil bottom, recognized top in US dollar, surprising domestic economic performance numbers), start of a significant uptrend, enough to scare out many of the shorts, say 150 to 300 BP
Long term, I stand by my prediction of a .3 to .4 CAD to USD rate with the USD becoming the preferred currency in Canada and much of Canada’s legacy resources transferred into foreign ownership. Such is the cost of the poor decisions and investments that have been made by both the private and public sectors. Indeed, with the coming economic stress, it’s not too difficult to conceive that Canada no longer stretches from sea to sea in the future.

#85 Sally Gains on 01.06.16 at 8:04 pm

The US RECOVERY is nothing more than an Obama Sham. He is desperate, pulling every lever to create a ‘legacy’.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/most-americans-are-one-paycheck-away-from-the-street-2016-01-06

#86 David Duval on 01.06.16 at 8:08 pm

FYI – 70 cent is NOT a range. However, 70 to 80 cents is a range.

But 70 to 71 is certainly a range in forex. — Garth

#87 conan on 01.06.16 at 8:13 pm

Anyone want to try and guess the bottom for the TSX?
I am thinking it is almost time to jump in but……… may as well ask here what everyone thinks?

#88 robert on 01.06.16 at 8:14 pm

Only 27% of all the stocks on the NYSE are above their 200 day moving averages so add the stock market to your list of worries. The bear is growling and today’s action was very bear like. Average volume&sharp downturn= lack of buyers. Look out below.

The bull is intact and the U.S. economy with it. Canada is of far greater concern. — Garth

#89 Randy on 01.06.16 at 8:18 pm

Dear Fellow Canadians….Please work harder so that my entitlements as a Canadian are maintained for another 35 years. Thank You.

#90 Murphy on 01.06.16 at 8:24 pm

I betcha after the drubbing this guy Bill Morneau will be taking after a year in the hot seat there will be No More Bill.

#91 Shawn on 01.06.16 at 8:25 pm

Hi Garth,

Can you speak more about the US stock market in future posts?

#92 young & foolish on 01.06.16 at 8:30 pm

Hmmmm ….. Not much to look forward to :-(

#93 Smoking Man on 01.06.16 at 8:33 pm

#87 conan on 01.06.16 at 8:13 pm
Anyone want to try and guess the bottom for the TSX?
I am thinking it is almost time to jump in but……… may as well ask here what everyone thinks?
….

Dude give your head a shake, our country is run by academic pc zelots and Communists. They Have zero comprehension on how to work it in a globalized economy.

Alberta is going down the vortex of stupidity, the rest of the economy going with it soon..

#94 Ret on 01.06.16 at 8:35 pm

” It means creating jobs by making the right investments in roads, bridges, transit, housing and green infrastructure. ”

We have been doing this in Ontario for years. If something doesn’t work, we do more of it???

#95 Millmech on 01.06.16 at 8:35 pm

It’s not just the mortgage rates inching up,it is the real money makers the HELOC this is where your going to feel it.Peoples assessments up,now they just got a fresh deposit in the bank a return on their investment so to speak that will most likely be spent before the year is out and they will be eagerly awaiting next years dividends.

Most but not all the people I know with a mortgage owe more now than when they first bought,it’s no longer payoff the mortgage then plan for retirement it’s ride that mortgage into retirement.The interest costs for a forty to fifty year mortgage is insane but they only think about the monthly cost,not total cost.End of rant!

#96 common sense on 01.06.16 at 8:35 pm

#85 Sally

No.The US economy is BOOMING. Ask Leo T.

Compared to the rest of the world that is..

#97 Smoking Man on 01.06.16 at 8:36 pm

#86 David Duval on 01.06.16 at 8:08 pm
FYI – 70 cent is NOT a range. However, 70 to 80 cents is a range.

But 70 to 71 is certainly a range in forex. — Garth
…..

I’m going with 71.5 to 65

#98 dosouth on 01.06.16 at 8:38 pm

RBC is known for attempts at kick starting rate hikes. Not all follow suit as a way of keeping or increasing market share. They are not a mortgage friendly bank or public friendly bank. RBC is a business oriented bank and shareholders love this, as long as they aren’t being affected by rate hikes.

Mind you if you carry any amount of shares with them then you probably don’t care about mortgage rates. I think you will see that rate cut in the first half of the year and mortgage rates stay stagnant for sure, except for some institutions testing the waters with minor changes.

Heck, these banks are making a killing on the weak dollar and to heck with the bond market……

#99 vic guy on 01.06.16 at 8:39 pm

Since a shit ton of people in Alberta put the 20% down or built over 20% equity in their homes in the boom times, therefore not needing CMHC insurance, whom are now unable to service the mortgage, and with Alberta being a non recourse Province…I’m guessing some banks\credit unions are shitting themselves right about now.
Jingle all the way!

#100 common sense on 01.06.16 at 8:40 pm

Cdn $ at 1.41 again just now…

#101 mathman on 01.06.16 at 8:41 pm

The RE market in this country defies any logic or economics. True story – bought a new car the other day starts with a M ends with a CEDES, gave my income for the credit check business manager was surprised. Curious me, I asked what % of cars are financed/leased. Answer all. What kind of incomes do you see. Answer – not many over 150k. These are people buying 50k – 100k cars on five figure incomes, everyday. The luxury cars, the I-everything, the home they can’t afford this country is pooched.

To the homeowners of YVR and GTA, you have a lottery ticket – cash it in before the deck of cards falls and live financially free the rest of your life.

#102 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 01.06.16 at 8:44 pm

“The bull is intact and the U.S. economy with it. Canada is of far greater concern. — Garth”

That statement is very optomistic.

The NYSE composite index topped out 18 months ago. The transports are in a bear market (with low oil prices!). The FANG is in a bull market if you can stomach the valuations.

As for the US economy, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPnow is tracking US GDP at 1%. Not very strong and surely does not support high multiples.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

#103 One of those days - Realties.ca on 01.06.16 at 8:45 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/06/one-of-those-days/ […]

#104 Mandria on 01.06.16 at 8:46 pm

BSD= Bay Street Dude?

#105 Carl on 01.06.16 at 8:47 pm

Quote: Meanwhile, here’s a question: A year ago the average GTA property cost $566,726 and to buy it required $17,000 in closing costs, for a total of $583,715. Today the average price is $622,217, but if you sold there would be a 5% commission, leaving you $591,106. So, in real life, the gain is $7,381, or 1.2% – and you can do better than that at the credit union, can’t you?

Not really, the credit union will still charge some service fees to bring it down to .9. So real estate is still the better investment.

#106 Herb on 01.06.16 at 8:52 pm

#71 saskatoon,

that’s the NRA line and you’re sticking to it!

#107 MSM-Free Zone on 01.06.16 at 8:58 pm

#47 Mark on 01.06.16 at 7:01 pm
“…..Engineers being at the heart of the economic engine that ultimately sustains and grows the economy……”
_________________________

You pretty much lost all your remaining credibility with that one.

#108 Jake Sarthpone on 01.06.16 at 9:00 pm

The biggest issues is the $350 billion+ unfunded pension liabilities from all public sector and government workers pensions.

Tame this monster or massive beast by either taxing an extra 30% at certain levels of income and cut future benefits as contracts come due.

Liberals will not do this because they like debt, wasteful spending and taxing. Oh by the way they don’t paying taxes on their own money, Paul Martin ring a bell.

#109 Winterpeg on 01.06.16 at 9:01 pm

A good start for Morneau. A 180 degree from the Harper approach. Starting off with the U crowd good strategy; they are the future of the country after all. Hopefully there’ll be time to hear what the crusty boomers have to say. Some good suggestions from our blog dogs. If there are town hall forums, they should show up, or at least send their suggestions to Ottawa.

#110 TRT on 01.06.16 at 9:02 pm

Morneau:

Start the debt deleveraging. Crash the RE market by propping up the loonie via higher interest rates.

Or kick the Can forward…and experience greater volatility and general unrest in the population.

#111 Smoking Man on 01.06.16 at 9:04 pm

Dear Bill

I have no intention of cutting into my drinking time, and posting on the only Democrat blog in the world.

Your survey is just a ploy to mind fk urbanites thinking that have a say. I know your agenda no matter how much suger ice you smother on that cow dung.

Wynne is running one two.

I suspect it’s a Butts idea, the prick has good herdonomic skills, but he’s on the wrong side of tracks, ah he’s still young. He will switch sides as he accumulates riches from tree hugging enterprises.

Probably in a secret completion with al gore, who has the biggest Lear Jet.

#112 Drill Baby Drill on 01.06.16 at 9:04 pm

“it pretty much sealed the fate of the Alberta NDP, along with every other government that thinks it can spend or tax its way to prosperity”

Is the selfie crowd even listening? It will be interesting to see if inheritance boy T2 lasts even 18 months.

#113 TRT on 01.06.16 at 9:04 pm

@post 84 Smoking Man’s trading mentor

Not poor decisions. Someone got $$$ for those decisions. Don’t be so naive.

#114 TRT on 01.06.16 at 9:09 pm

Oh Morneau:

Don’t ever get CMHC or Banks to verify income directly from CRA. It will crash the market. You don’t want that on your watch.

#115 X on 01.06.16 at 9:09 pm

You forgot to mention that we are committed to helping 50,000 Syrians start a new life here, and today I heard on the news that we have 2250 vets who are homeless here. Nothing against helping those in need, but would love to hear a news story soon about our gov’t committing to help those who have served our great nation.

Funny……Bill Morneau, launched pre-budget consultations… there were several groups petitioning not to cut the TFSA, how much did the gov’t listen to them? Yeah, not worth my time to tell you what I think Bill, if you are just gonna do, what your gonna do anyways….

#116 TRT on 01.06.16 at 9:10 pm

China HALTED. Down 7+%

#117 The American on 01.06.16 at 9:11 pm

At #50: S.Bby, you said, “… In the States, government employment is seen as second-rate. That says a lot aboot our two countries.”

ABSOLUTELY RIGHT! In the U.S., *most* government positions are considered an embarrassment. Americans do not aspire to be government employees as most of those jobs require very little initiative or brain power. To an American, *most* government jobs require the person to be lazy as hell and work in a drab and depressing environment. Basically, they are people who live in a basement, have three to eight cats, and bathe a couple times a week. Here are several examples of the American take on government workers:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oS7FqfVwoMI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrSUe_m19FY

#118 Daisy Mae on 01.06.16 at 9:12 pm

Latest from the trenches in 604land …
Some “ investment” firm is now advertising on the local shill radio station … CKNW … advising us to defer paying our property taxes and “invest” the money with them … better get right on this opportunity … don’t want to miss out.”

**********************

I’m disgusted with it all. NOW the ‘experts’ are telling us what you, Garth, have been telling us for years. Gutless wonders. Either that, or they’re totally stupid? And the masses? Head in the sand.

#119 Doug in London on 01.06.16 at 9:17 pm

@Victoria Real Estate Update, post #40:
Agreed, that’s why this time around the low dollar isn’t helping our economy like it did in years past. Our cost of doing business is too high. Meanwhile, the economic recovery continues in the USA because their cost of doing business is lower. They got the housing correction over with quickly, and have now moved on.

#120 For those about to flop... on 01.06.16 at 9:21 pm

Just a thought on the land tax deferral scam where people over 55 can defer taxes by putting it against the equity in the house.Some people are keeping and investing this money apparently.
My suggestion would be to make it so that you have to had lived in the house for at least 5 / 10 years before you qualify for this assistance.
After all is supposed to be to help seniors KEEP their house, and someone who just bought a house at these prices should be able to afford the land tax as well.
This inadvertently might cool the housing market just a touch even though most off the sales are seniors downsizing.
Don’t sling too much mud at me ,just trying to problem solve instead of sulking, doesn’t affect me as I rent .
Hope my statements made sense to you all.

M41BC

#121 dave on 01.06.16 at 9:21 pm

The argument Ross Kay presents is silly. Does he also fault the government when they report record auto sales? The population increases each year so it’s possible that the autos sold per person is actually lower the in previous years. His logic is flawed in this instance.

PS – tomorrow should be an interesting day for equities – China’s market was haulted after only a few minutes of trading due to it breaking the 7% limit down…

#122 Leo Trollstoy on 01.06.16 at 9:22 pm

Well the job hunt is the final weed-out course in the program. Looks like it worked this time.

Bingo. What happens after school reveals a persons true ability. Grades are largely irrelevant. The employable will quickly separate from the unemployable. Reality will always punish the dumb.

#123 SWL1976 on 01.06.16 at 9:23 pm

Good gawd Leroy is back.

I’d say the following statement about sums him up perfectly

Ameri-CUH!!! Woo HOO!!! We’re number ONE!!!

I agree that America might just be the least tattered horse in the glue factory right now, but things are way far from perfect down there. America is much much closer to financial collapse and their ultimate goal of perpetual war than most even care to think

Some might even say they are already there, but most haven’t yet awaken to this sad realization

Can’t see the forest for them trees

For those who have been paying attention and honest with themselves and reality, it is stunningly obvious where America is going…

For the rest…

Party on…

#124 MSM-Free Zone on 01.06.16 at 9:23 pm

#112 Drill Baby Drill on 01.06.16 at 9:04 pm
_____________________________

You’re confused, baby dill.

For four decades (I lived there for two of them) Alberta had one of the lowest corporate tax structures in the country, yet four decades of Tory rule and mismanagement without any diversification whatsoever predictably flushed your province’s future down the toilet.

#125 Doug in London on 01.06.16 at 9:24 pm

@mathman, post #101:
To the homeowners of YVR and GTA, you have a lottery ticket – cash it in before the deck of cards falls and live financially free the rest of your life.
—————————————————————-
YES, absolutely! I’ve said the same thing many, many, many, many, many times. I still don’t know why more people haven’t been doing so in the last few years. This is a once in a lifetime chance, a get rich quick scheme that will actually work. Well, what are you waiting for?

#126 Leo Trollstoy on 01.06.16 at 9:24 pm

It’s almost a perfect storm for T2 and the gender-perfect mob around him.

Uncanny timing. Because of the economy, two political parties are gonna get rekt

#127 Smoking Man on 01.06.16 at 9:26 pm

#107 MSM-Free Zone on 01.06.16 at 8:58 pm
#47 Mark on 01.06.16 at 7:01 pm
“…..Engineers being at the heart of the economic engine that ultimately sustains and grows the economy……”
_________________________

You pretty much lost all your remaining credibility with that one.
….

Stop insulting him. Dont want him take his lunch box and leave. he makes me look good and laugh.

Plus, I get a kick out of his insanity..

Mark egnor you critics, keep doing what your doing.

#128 MSM-Free Zone on 01.06.16 at 9:27 pm

#74 saskatoon on 01.06.16 at 7:43 pm
_______________________

Gunpowder…a leading cause of dementia.

Just ask Charlton Heston.

#129 TurnerNation on 01.06.16 at 9:29 pm

How about Eagles – One of those nights.

Before my time…first I heard it was in 1992.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XWxyQVqP-M

#130 Message to Bill Morneau on 01.06.16 at 9:34 pm

Dear Bill,

Everybody involved in systemic tax dodging as seen in this documentary should be immediately banished from Canada.

If they want to stay?

The death penalty would be appropriate.

We must stop everyone involved in gaming our democratic system for the benefit of the ultra 1%.

http://tvo.org/video/documentaries/the-great-canadian-tax-dodge

#131 Arb Watson on 01.06.16 at 9:37 pm

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: The Shanghai Composite Will Plummet by Nearly 30% in 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-05/bank-of-america-merrill-lynch-the-shanghai-composite-will-plummet-by-nearly-30-in-2016

#132 Julia on 01.06.16 at 9:43 pm

#115 TRT
“Don’t ever get CMHC or Banks to verify income directly from CRA. It will crash the market. You don’t want that on your watch.”

There are some spot checks/quality control done by Banks’ security to detect fraud and they do confirm income with employers issuing the T4s and with CRA.

#133 Canadian in the US on 01.06.16 at 9:44 pm

#46 Boombust,

I’ve noticed that you’re very negative towards everything American. However, for Canadians it is very nice living down here. Especially now with the current exchange rate. In a few years I may send my children back to Canada for a nearly free education. Retirement in Canada is also an option (free medical care!). How do you feel about it? Maybe you should move down south too?

#134 hmm? hmm.. on 01.06.16 at 9:47 pm

as to PC strategy and giving away billions.. instead of talking to “the Guy” I’ll post my thoughts here.

ohhh Can-a-daaaah
we don’t know what to doooo
for those who died in warrr
we apologise to youuu..

but wait, there’s more!
NO, that’s enough.

#135 Smoking Man on 01.06.16 at 9:53 pm

#123 Leo Trollstoy on 01.06.16 at 9:22 pm
Well the job hunt is the final weed-out course in the program. Looks like it worked this time.

Bingo. What happens after school reveals a persons true ability. Grades are largely irrelevant. The employable will quickly separate from the unemployable. Reality will always punish the dumb.
………….

So true.

But why is it always about the employee experience.

You dogs got to think more like employers.

Sort of like renouncing Christ, or the tree, and going with the devel.

Works for me….

#136 Not tonight honey on 01.06.16 at 9:54 pm

#230 WUL on 01.06.16 at 3:47 pm
#219 By all means tonight honey on 01.06.16 at 3:11 pm

Sorry. I could have included the link.

====================================

Cheers WUL & good luck with the interview outcome!

Keep your eyes on the prize :-)

Goodnight!
NTH

#137 Jetfixer on 01.06.16 at 9:54 pm

Chinese markets frozen again after another 7% decline…

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/shcomp?countrycode=cn

#138 G on 01.06.16 at 9:56 pm

Garth, after hour oil prices are 32$ and change.

#139 G on 01.06.16 at 9:59 pm

“In a country full of house-horny, snorfling debt addicts clearly living beyond their means the whole notion of a government-engineered ‘soft landing’ is as silly as thinking you can eat the rich to feed the middle class.”

The above is the best line.

#140 ronh on 01.06.16 at 10:01 pm

Coming to a blog near you:

Invasion of the Goldbugs

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-06/ubs-sees-30-bear-market-get-out-stocks-buy-gold

Could not resist.

#141 Smoking Man on 01.06.16 at 10:06 pm

Drifting to the drunk zone, wife is watching some award show,. while I’m making smoking trips to the back yard and playing easter egg hunt for my hidden JD mickeys.

Johnny Depp won something.

The guy is a beauty. He gives no shit. Found the secret early in life.

Lucky I’m thinking.

#142 Smoking Man on 01.06.16 at 10:13 pm

#131 Message to Bill Morneau on 01.06.16 at 9:34 pm
Dear Bill,

Everybody involved in systemic tax dodging as seen in this documentary should be immediately banished from Canada.

If they want to stay?

The death penalty would be appropriate.

We must stop everyone involved in gaming our democratic system for the benefit of the ultra 1%.

http://tvo.org/video/documentaries/the-great-canadian-tax-dodge
…..

Yeah, drop to your knees and go for the little spigot on the flat tire, blow hard.

It’s the only way commies can make it home.

#143 MF on 01.06.16 at 10:14 pm

#126 Doug in London on 01.06.16 at 9:24 pm

Obviously, it’s because they are greedy. Greedy on the way up and they will be greedy on the way down.

#109 Winterpeg on 01.06.16 at 9:01 pm

I don’t know. This guy is supposedly Finance Minister of the country. Why on earth is he asking us to give him suggestions on running our finances? Can he not think of any on his own? Where is our leadership?

I think Garth mentioned it as a bit of a joke. “Look how screwed we are, even our government officials don’t know what to do!”

I guess none of it matters when we have a drama teacher with zero experience as PM.

Basically, this comes down to more pandering to the electorate. They are reaching out to their new base – millennial pot smoking, hipsters with zero life experience for ideas. Trying to be “cool” with the use of media.

Here are some hashtags for them to use:

#cluelessmorneau #outofideasmourneau #idonnowhatimdoingmorneau

MF

#144 kyle on 01.06.16 at 10:15 pm

Garth you told them.
Alberta is in terrible trouble and I fear a complete
melt down is underway far worse than Decembers
numbers illustrated. I have been tracking the sales
3 times a day for the past 6 days and the numbers
are frightening to say the least – only 80 sales
for 6 days – should normally be 25/30 per day.
Unless something changes extremely
quickly I believe we are facing a near wipeout.
Praying I’m wrong for all concerned and that this
is just an anomaly.

#145 vic guy on 01.06.16 at 10:15 pm

2 – Adult deboned squirrels.
5 – bunches of dandelion leaves.
4 – large potatoes.
Bring to a rolling boil over fire for 4-5 hours.

#146 Buehler on 01.06.16 at 10:19 pm

How Long till Garth says it’s a good idea to have some Gold holdings in your portfolio (probably for diversification). Now that the sentiment is changing..Anyone?

If you own the TSX through a vehicle like XIU you have all the gold exposure required. — Garth

#147 MF on 01.06.16 at 10:20 pm

#32 gut check on 01.06.16 at 6:40 pm

These are great suggestions which obviously will be wholeheartedly ignored.

MF

#148 Nemesis on 01.06.16 at 10:22 pm

#LeroyOnVacation…

https://youtu.be/1bXzFY72wbs

#149 Millmech on 01.06.16 at 10:25 pm

China down 7%,another 14 days of this and that’s it.Watch and wait for the Chinese govt as it starts to repatriate all the money that’s been taken out by the millionaires.Since everybody knows they’re laundering the money you can be sure their police and intelligence forces have been keeping track of where it’s been put for safe keeping.Most of these people have families back home that will be leveraged for compliance,just ask some of the top investors who have been “sequestered”for questioning about their trading activities that have run afoul of the state.

#150 Boombust on 01.06.16 at 10:27 pm

#134 American…

Well, stay down there, then. And, don’t bother coming back for the “goodies” Canada has to offer.

Creep.

#151 Drill Baby Drill on 01.06.16 at 10:33 pm

#125 MSM
Last gasp of a socialist. Alberta needed a house cleaning and the next election will see the Wildrose party in power. Albertans are pragmatists if anything. Look to Ontario to see what happens to voters who think like you.

#152 Vundo on 01.06.16 at 10:36 pm

Higher taxes on those who make over 4x the average income. Smaller tax shelter for people with $10,000 kicking around that is not already consumed by rent, food, and student loan payments. A prime minister willing to take some flak for gender equality.

Go ahead, have a simmering rant about it at every oportunity. Just remember that the kids are enthusiastically voting for the above and will likely have little sympathy for the “successful”

#153 MF on 01.06.16 at 10:39 pm

#101 mathman on 01.06.16 at 8:41 pm

Yup all leased and totally dependent on “low rates”. All smoke and mirrors. That’s what the GTA is anyhow. Everyone is a superstar, bearded, tattooed, audi driving realtor/mortgage broker slimeball with a rental condo.

Was driving down Yonge street with my boomer dad last night and I remarked at how many high end Mercedes we saw on the road. Jokingly said “I wonder how they all afford those cars?”..”they must be rich” my dad said, assuming these cars are actually bought outright (like my parents always did with their own cars).

Occurred to me that he probably remembers 24% interest rates in the 70’s and 80’s and had always shunned debt/loans of any kind. Then occurred to me just how different our ultra low rate dependent modern Canadian “economy” is in comparison to what they grew up with, and how screwed up it all is currently.

MF

#154 hope & ruin on 01.06.16 at 10:42 pm

#71 Arb Watson on 01.06.16 at 7:39 pm
How to help Canadians?
Teach every millennial about the amortization schedule.
_______________________________________

sorry Arb but that ship has sailed. 50% of millennials are already in the mortgage game. Time to focus on generation z or whatever we’re going to call Gen-X’s kids.

Hey Gen-Xers, when you rant and rave about how useless and inadequate your children are what do you collectively call them?

#155 MF on 01.06.16 at 10:51 pm

So let’s get this straight.

Poloz lowered rates twice last year and sent the loonie on a downward spiral (along with pref’s and everyone’s portfolio because of oil).

Nothing was accomplished (manufacturing still down, we barely have any growth, housing even more unaffordable in mega bubble territory, debtloads bigger than the universe, government spending on useless garbage up, etc.)

And now the word is this moron wants wants to slash again? Where the heck is the reasoning for that? Why would we slash again just as the US is rising? Is this guy on crack? Honestly. Someone tell me what is the rationale for a rate cut again? Is everyone in his stupid cabinet an idiot sycophant?

MF

#156 SWL1976 on 01.06.16 at 10:55 pm

I just had dinner right in the heart of oil country here, and the conversation turned to domestic and global politics. I can assure you that I tread lightly with this topic here, as I am quite aware of my surroundings and the possible blowback that could occur from swimming against the current.

Anyways, a fellow who appeared to be in his mid fifties looks at me straight faced and mentioned that he signed onto a 30 year mortgage during the Cons recent reign of loose lending. He sure must have been caught up in the romance of the recent housing boom.

WOW!!! These people are very real.

So is reality

#157 Smoking Man on 01.06.16 at 10:59 pm

#147 MF on 01.06.16 at 10:20 pm
#32 gut check on 01.06.16 at 6:40 pm

These are great suggestions which obviously will be wholeheartedly ignored.

MF
….

Your coming around, great super tramp song.

Think it was called Rudy on a train to no where. Google it.

#158 MF on 01.06.16 at 11:01 pm

Hey where is all the Harper hating Liberals who complained about the F35’s condemning T2’s arms deal with Saudi Arabia?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-going-ahead-with-saudi-arms-deal-despite-condemning-executions/article28013908/

We know where the Saudi money goes.

Daisy? kommykim?

Not a peep. Not surprising though.

MF

#159 Smoking Man on 01.06.16 at 11:06 pm

Mellenials have lady GaGa, Jen Lopez.

This bommer has this

https://youtu.be/n3Rzug1OWPU

#160 hope & ruin on 01.06.16 at 11:09 pm

#118 The American on 01.06.16 at 9:11 pm
In the U.S., *most* government positions are considered an embarrassment
_____________________________________

God Bless America. seriously. We’ve been riding your coat-tails since you trashed the brits.

I want every Bell service representative to spend a week in the southern US to learn what customer service is. So the next time I call with an overcharge I get treated like a customer not a used kleenex. Maybe they can make me some grits too.

#161 learningfromyou on 01.06.16 at 11:10 pm

Thank Garth for this post.

In the past I felt bad for companies in problems, thinking about the employees losing their jobs, families having issues to cover their basic needs.

But when I read that the CEO of companies in problems take indecent amount of money like a necessary princess, I imagine the scenario of most investors pulling out from this stock.

I cannot stand watching an interview of this man.

http://mashable.com/2013/11/11/blackberry-ceo-88-million/

Please forgive me those who think I’m wrong, but he is a disgrace, a thief in style.

#162 Because it's 2015 on 01.06.16 at 11:22 pm

Here’s an interesting video regarding T2’s gender parity pandering:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Js6T45S-Dc&list=PLHt1Hh27h4Bs3gYpWa5qAu_kOChBKDIaw&index=19

#163 Blair Backman on 01.06.16 at 11:26 pm

First advice for a finance minister-you are running a country, not pushing stock tips or hustling houses.

So, tune out the real estate hustlers but even though Garth is loud and omnipresent tune him out as well.

The rest of us can be his audience, you had best follow Paul Krugman.

#164 GSyes on 01.06.16 at 11:48 pm

You guys are going to get wiped out this year.

#165 old gringo on 01.06.16 at 11:55 pm

Garth, if oil does breach the $29 mark and perhaps lower, the CDN$ will be at .50c -60c at best.
The housing market will not have a soft landing.
There could be a 20-35% correction in house prices.
CDN stocks would follow.
There can be little doubt that Canada is in a major resession

#166 prairiegopher on 01.06.16 at 11:56 pm

Well, it’s going to be fun watching Turdeau and Nutley melt away into a puddle of their own. Someone please get a selfie of it, it will be a sight to remember!

#167 Love my Kia on 01.07.16 at 12:02 am

I agree with #29 FormerSaskie, do a survey Garth and submit to Garneau. Please allow for comments.

Great idea!

#168 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.16 at 12:07 am

My interior designer told me to get rid of my BRE-X shares wallpaper.
It’s sooo 90s.
Says Canadian Dollar Bills are all the rage now.

#169 Love my Kia on 01.07.16 at 12:10 am

#31 Godth
I find it pretty funny that you create the impression that Canada is an isolated incident. I find it hilarious that you blame a newly minted NDP in Y’Alberta for their financial woes after 40+yrs. of Harleys and pointy boots.

The global economy has been under the thumb of this neo-liberal (ultra-conservative, pro transnational corporation) ideology since the days of Ronnie and Maggie, and a Fried Man, but it’s all the fault of immediacy bias when convenient. Tell me more.

This has been building for decades and everyone partied like there was no tomorrow, tomorrow always arrives…surprise!
*****************************************
Absolutely agreed. This mess has been in the works for quite some time! I for one have a bad memory but not so bad as to forget the pre-existing conditions that brought about our downturn in the first place.

There will be inevitable pain for T2 in making a course correction, unfortunate but necessary.

#170 Love my Kia on 01.07.16 at 12:16 am

#10 JG
where are the real Leaders?? do they even exist anymore?
**********************************

They never existed in the first place. Harper’s ego wrote a lot of cheques his IQ couldn’t cash. That’s not leadership either. I credit Morneau for reaching out to the citizenry. In the end its still his call to make.

#171 WUL on 01.07.16 at 12:18 am

Some folks complain that the cowboys on Wall Street that hung the world economy over the precipice, circa 2008, were not jailed. We have not recovered from that event.

Rob with a pistol, they put you in jail.

Rob with a fountain pen, they make you King.

I think Woody Guthrie wrote this.

#172 Kreditanstalt on 01.07.16 at 12:24 am

#147 Buehler:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/summary/?q=XIU-T

This shows the recent performance of XIU. It tracks the TSX pretty well tick-for-tick:

“Over the last five days, shares have lost 3.37% and sit 1.60% above their 52-week low. This security has performed in-line with the S&P TSX during the last year.”

Wouldn’t you want your gold to move against the mainstream indices? I sure would – and that’s what individual miners did today.

There’s no substitute for real, physical metal held in a reliable allocated account or, better yet, outside the banking playpen altogether.

#173 The American on 01.07.16 at 12:30 am

At 161: hope & ruin, in the South in the U.S., they also especially love their Chick-Fil-A fast-food (my god, it is delicious). You can get some of that in addition to those grits. :-) Why here’s a little video on it right here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sO-msplukrw

#174 Balmuto on 01.07.16 at 1:02 am

My message to Morneau is to forget about balanced budgets and just borrow to the max like a good Canadian. You might as well borrow now while foreign investors are willing to lend to us at dirt-cheap rates because we’re still “AAA”.

I’m only half-joking.

#175 Lorne on 01.07.16 at 1:11 am

#10 JG
Good grief . this is scary. From Bill’s budget consultation page. “Remember: I don’t have all the answers. That’s why I need you! The more people who take the time to share their thoughts, the more the next budget will be a reflection of the kind of real, meaningful change you’ve asked us to deliver. So be a part of the next federal budget – chip in. We are counting on your insight.”

Basically , when all goes to hell in a hand basket he can say he consulted with Canadians and gave them what they wanted. Its not his fault. We are doomed.

where are the real Leaders?? do they even exist anymore?
……..
Heaven forbid…a government actually asking for input from its citizens….what a horrible idea! Now, if only the previous government had even considered asking the populace about the advisabilty of instituting 40 year, 0% down payment mortgages back in 08/09….well, perhaps we wouldn’t be in the mess we are. But no, they showed real “leadership” as you suggest, and made some terrible decisions….but they did make a decision!

#176 JimH on 01.07.16 at 1:23 am

Hey fellow dogs.

Leroy Washington is NOT an American. He is no more American than is black pudding with tripe, Andouillete and Tête de veau with Brussel sprouts.

He is a rather dim-witted, annoying and unimaginative troll.

If you don’t feed him, he’ll go away.

#177 Lorne on 01.07.16 at 1:33 am

#90 Murphy
I betcha after the drubbing this guy Bill Morneau will be taking after a year in the hot seat there will be No More Bill.
……..
Yeh, wasn’t it so much more comforting having the intellectual, Joe Oliver as our Finance Minister!

#178 Benchwarmer on 01.07.16 at 1:48 am

Most Albertans, Calgarians in particular have no clue how bad things are and how bad they are about to get. Unless they have been directly affected by the recession it’s all sunshine here.
I’ve got my popcorn and I’m enjoying the show.

#179 Marcus on 01.07.16 at 1:55 am

China is falling like a rock again tonight! Down over 7% and halted after only 30 minutes of trading. DOW futures down sharply. Major selling blocks now installed against high share owners of Chinese Companies. Hold on to yer hats maties!

#180 Watch the Implosion on 01.07.16 at 2:07 am

Convinced that by mid-year economy will implode and the last bastion of Canadian growth, RE in YVR/416, will do the same starting in March.

All the economic signs are there internal/external to Canada; thus, DO NOTHING Mr. Morneau. Otherwise, you will be blamed.

Only way GenX and Millenials will ever learn about too much debt, self entitlement of the latter and that economic cycles really do happen.

BTW #5 Pathcontrolmonk, do repost in July how that $3 MM mould house in YVR is doing price wise.

#181 Fed-up on 01.07.16 at 2:17 am

Ummmm a 58 cent dollar by late 2017???

http://longforecast.com/fx/canadian-dollar-to-us-dollar-forecast-for-2015-2016-and-2017.html

It won’t be that bad, will it?

I have a significant amount of USD but that has been shrinking as my investments have been sucking wind since late 2014. I guess I will have to pray for this to offset my losses, lol.

#182 OXI in GREECE on 01.07.16 at 3:33 am

http://www.brasilpost.com.br/2016/01/06/mortes-overdose-de-maconha_n_8924146.html?utm_hp_ref=brazil

For all you bozos who still think weed is bad – turn on your translator to read this article from Brazil. An article you will NEVER see in the West. Booze for example is 114 times MORE lethal than weed. You would need to smoke 650 kgs of weed in 15 minutes to overdose on it….

Like I said….you will never read that in a controlled MSM news outlet in the west.

#183 jane 24 on 01.07.16 at 4:14 am

Remember that the Toronto RE gain is only a gain in Cdn dollars. In every other major currency it was a big loss. So a trifle illusionary.

#184 willworkforpickles on 01.07.16 at 4:34 am

…Maybe JT will form a rock band and tour the planet with his super solar laser beam guitar.

#185 Canadian in the US on 01.07.16 at 4:36 am

#151 Boombust,

But coming up for the goodies, occasionally, is part of the reason why it is so good being down here. Well, you better stay up there, to make sure the goodies are available if needed.

#186 drydock on 01.07.16 at 5:58 am

#52 Herf on 01.06.16 at 7:07 pm

#15 conan

“What does BSD mean? I looked it up on google and it said big swinging trunk?”

Berkeley Software Distribution – a version(s) of the UNIX operating system. The OS pedigree from which Apple’s Macintosh OS is derived from.

You know, UNIX (eunuchs), what Canada’s economy and its political leaders have become?

http://www.bsd.org/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Software_Distribution

OK, so I don’t have a clue what Garth meant by the term “BSD” when referring to Morneau the finance minister, but I stand by my interpretation/analogy.

010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010

I use TRUEOS with the Mate desktop enviroment it’s between FREEBSD and PCBSD all three are pretty good,my backup system is Kali Linux, another good OS.
Off topic i know but i couldn’t resist when i read your post.

#187 Alberta Leads the Way on 01.07.16 at 6:07 am

With Trudy, Moroneau and the Clown Prince Poloz at the helm and talking loud about cutting rates to drive down the dollar and the economy, we should all strap on the boots and do what they’re doing in Alberta…..calling BS on these clowns and starting a recall campaign before these idiots sink us all.

#188 Millenial on 01.07.16 at 6:20 am

Chinese stock market crashed and shut down again early this morning. Whatevs though, right? BTFD.

#189 Me on 01.07.16 at 6:22 am

#32 You bring up a list of very valid suggestions of how to fix the economic situation in our nation, but your socialist side is showing through on the last one. What a draconian measure it would be to dictate who could work and who couldn’t. We might as well get a new flag while we’re at it. One with some black Eagles on it.

#190 Ontario's Left Coast on 01.07.16 at 6:40 am

Well this sucks…

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-07/global-markets-at-the-beginning-of-a-crisis-george-soros-says

#191 neo on 01.07.16 at 6:40 am

Garth,

I believe you assured us several months ago China was fixed or contained or whatever adjective you used to define a market intervention which was nothing short of a bandaid on a severed leg. How is that meme going? How is the global contagion of that being contained going?

#192 Harbour on 01.07.16 at 6:53 am

The world markets are in a meltdown but the Canadian real estate market keeps it’s ponzi game going. Hilarious

#193 Tim S on 01.07.16 at 6:54 am

Garth… Love the blog but so depressing as of late. Can you please pick one day of the week for good news stories ie. When (or if) you see the Canadian Market recovering, where you see the economy moving, puppy adoption success stories etc. Cheers!

#194 saskatoon on 01.07.16 at 7:18 am

#106 Herb
#129 MSM-Free Zone

it may be helpful for you to look up “logical fallacy”…

google is your friend…

…and come to understand the difference between rationality and irrationality.

then, you can learn to converse as an adult.

you do not know how to present an argument.

you do not know how to create a rational response.

you only mislead, and project self-deception.

this is why you always lose:

your only means of achieving “success” is through delusional group consensus.

#195 Trudeaumania on 01.07.16 at 7:20 am

lol taxes on the “successful”

Won’t somebody please stop oppressing the “successful”!

Surely this is a joke, Garth?

#196 Me on 01.07.16 at 7:25 am

There’s only so much pain many of our oil companies can stand. Soon many of them could be shuttered.

#197 bigrider on 01.07.16 at 7:38 am

Long time since I have posted anything.

Good luck to all financial asset investors (including myself). I think we are going to need it moving forward

The fact remains that proponents of financial asset investing over RE who live in the GTA and Vancouver have had a much tougher time, even if successful with their investments, than someone who simply and rather naively bought houses and condos as ‘investments’

With all the blathering on , on this site about a “correction, crash” whatever for RE prices, they simply have not materialized for the GTA or Vancouver, nor do they remotely appear to be. In fact ,quite the opposite.

It is important for everyone not to become so entrenched in your viewpoint so as to ignore what the evidence and the market is suggesting.

The ‘tape’ for RE in these two cities paints a far different picture than this blog ,with all its warnings against, suggests

#198 fancy_pants on 01.07.16 at 7:55 am

#19 Herb on 01.06.16 at 6:24 pm

Totally agree Herb, the poor guy was just passed a flaming baton. I suspect he is wishing he was back to spoiled classroom politics instead.

—-

Regarding oil: Is the world being played by OPEC? Is this just a poker game to take candy from a baby? See who blinks first? Or is this nothing more than the fallout of high oil for too long that piled too many into the supply side thus producing a glut? If a game is underway than one could make a killing when they turn down the taps.

#199 pbrasseur on 01.07.16 at 8:01 am

At this rate the CAD will be below 70 cents before the end of next week.

I have said I expect the Loonie to revisit its previous 2002 low of 62 cents. We might be getting there sooner than expected.

What is apparently less expected is how long the Canadian economic slump will be… My guess is at least a decade and a standard of living that will decline by at least 30% relative to the US. Welcome to Trudeaupia folks, it had never really left us!

#200 gut check on 01.07.16 at 8:05 am

@ #168 Me on 01.07.16 at 6:22 am
#32 You bring up a list of very valid suggestions of how to fix the economic situation in our nation, but your socialist side is showing through on the last one. What a draconian measure it would be to dictate who could work and who couldn’t….

*****************

What’s more socialist:
1. giving government pensions to working people, or
2. not giving government pensions to working people?

You saw a reflection of your own fear in my post, I think.

#201 TurnerNation on 01.07.16 at 8:09 am

Maybe more will realize everything of importance has become weaponized. China’sstock market has been badly attacked last few days.
Even food, social mediums are used against us. Killing us softly.
But our tax farm masters will spare us right, we’re special?

#202 jess on 01.07.16 at 8:09 am

First known hacker-caused power outage signals troubling escalation
Highly destructive malware creates “destructive events” at 3 Ukrainian substations.

“The latest BlackEnergy also includes a backdoored secure shell (SSH) utility that gives attackers permanent access to infected computers.”

by Dan Goodin – Jan 4, 2016 3:36pm EST
http://arstechnica.com/security/2016/01/first-known-hacker-caused-power-outage-signals-troubling-escalation/

#203 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.07.16 at 8:12 am

@#74 Saskabush
Wow! You searched the world over for two of the most obscure 1st world nations to “prove” a pro gun point.

Sleep with your “polished” gun do you?

#204 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.07.16 at 8:14 am

Well I see the Chinese communist leaders have discovered something they cant manipulate…….

When are they going to realize that halting trading only makes things worse.

10 years of pumping the economy with govt projects and building empty cities has come to this……..

Twas bankrupt chinese money investors that killed the beast……….

#205 fancy_pants on 01.07.16 at 8:34 am

Hi Garth,
your optimistic views of a US recovery are a slightly bewildering. I suppose when you line up economies, they mask their sickness best as they still have some makeup in the cosmetic drawer.

but it feels every corner of this finite globe is strained under the weight of misaligned or tainted politics, war, pollution, environment, finances, population, religions, regimes …

I may just pop on my rose coloured shades and climb aboard your ice cream truck as it plays nicer tunes and offers a much nicer view than mine.

#206 pbrasseur on 01.07.16 at 8:44 am

Pressures on Canadian economy are as follows:

Oil and commodities plummeting
Household debt anxiety
Inflation caused by low Dollar
Precarious public finances (especially in provinces due to exploding health care and cities due to pension liabilities)
Population ageing.
May soon have to had rising interest rates…

All these pressures are currently building, feeding on each other, and so far the only thing “keeping the peace” is apparently more consumer debt and growing public deficits, in other words more debt. Productivity gains are nowhere to be seen or at least insufficient! Does not bode well to say the least, in fact we’ll be lucky if all hell don’t break loose at some (overdue?) point.

#207 CJBob on 01.07.16 at 9:15 am

if you sold there would be a 5% commission – Garth
______________________
There are times when you need to use an agent, but I’ve used some of those discount places that charge 1%, run the open houses,etc. myself and sold privately successfully in 416. It’s not rocket surgery.

#208 Retired Boomer WI on 01.07.16 at 9:23 am

China puked again… futures look awful.

Remember, it’s only paper money….

#209 james on 01.07.16 at 9:27 am

Question:

What’s even dumber than buying a condo anywhere in Toronto the last five years?

Answer:

Buying a “retail condo” for $356,000 – $435,000 beneath a condo where there’s no foot traffic!

(Spaces like these small ones can easily be rented elsewhere in the city, where there is foot traffic, for under $2000 monthly, even under $1000 – talk about your opportunity costs, yikes!)

http://www.thestar.com/business/2016/01/07/businesses-in-ghost-town-condo-mall-suing-developer-canderel-residential.html

#210 The real Kip on 01.07.16 at 9:33 am

Janet Yellen’s replacement will lower American rates within a month.

You can’t be that thick. — Garth

#211 Laughing so much on 01.07.16 at 9:34 am

Bwahahahahahahahaha!!!! The American what the hell was that? I didn’t know what is Chick fil A is. Looked it up and found it is a fast food chain popular in the US and one opened in the Calgary airport back in 14. People love CFAs food but the company is very anti gay and donates to anti gay causes. So this video was made in retaliation. I watched the video you linked four times already and I laugh harder and harder every time. My coworkers are going to hate me today. I plan on putting it on repeat at my desk. Thank you for sharing.

#212 gladiator on 01.07.16 at 9:40 am

How about inflation-indexing income tax brackets (even by official inflation numbers)?
That will stop the incremental growth in taxes we pay each year without even realizing it – besides paying more for stuff, we also pay more in taxes.

#213 economictsunami on 01.07.16 at 9:42 am

Too much attention in Canada is paid to the price of WTI or Brent.

In Canada our grade is Western Canada ‘Select’.

World’s Cheapest Crude Hits Record Low as Oil Slump Deepens:

“Spot prices for the Western Canadian Select grade fell to $19.81 a barrel on Wednesday, the lowest since tracking began in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The benchmark, made up of heavy conventional production and bitumen blended with synthetic crude and condensate, fell with global grades after U.S. gasoline inventories surged the most in 22 years and crude supplies at the American storage hub in Oklahoma climbed to a record.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-06/world-s-cheapest-crude-hits-record-low-as-oil-slump-deepens

With currency wars raging, a world awash in oil and increasing climate change awareness, who are selecting this Canadian goop?…

#214 JimH on 01.07.16 at 9:52 am

#183 OXI in GREECE on 01.07.16 at 3:33 am
“http://www.brasilpost.com.br/2016/01/06/mortes-overdose-de-maconha_n_8924146.html?utm_hp_ref=brazil

For all you bozos who still think weed is bad – turn on your translator to read this article from Brazil. An article you will NEVER see in the West. Booze for example is 114 times MORE lethal than weed. You would need to smoke 650 kgs of weed in 15 minutes to overdose on it….”
===================================

Well, it’s extremely obvious that weed has never done you any good!

#215 Working guy in BC on 01.07.16 at 10:08 am

A few comments from a working stiff in Vancouver who has been priced out forever:

I agree with the Message to Bill Morneau in post #37. I think those measures would really help working class people who are younger than baby boomers.

I think Mark’s plan in post #47 would cause signifant harm to working class people who are younger than baby boomers. It is perplexing that he is only calling on the federal government to do something about underemployment of engineers specifically. Underemployment and unemployment are problems in our economy in general and it requires a response from government that doesn’t just look at the needs of engineers, but all workers.

Everyone seems to think that 2016 is the year that real estate crashes/corrects in Vancouver and Toronto. Haven’t the blogs been saying this every year? 2015 was supposed to be the year. So was 2014. Ditto for 2013. Somehow prices kept marching up all these years despite predictions of a crash/correction. Was the economy strong in Vancouver during those years? Nope. It had nothing to do with the strength of the local economy–it only deteriorated during that time. Costs for transit and tolls went through the roof but real estate prices kept going up. Jobs pay the same crappy wages as always and even harder to find than in previous years. Why should real estate correct in 2016? It never mattered what was happening in the economy. My prediction is assessments in YVR will be up between 10-20% by the end of 2016. I have no statistics to back up my prediction and I will probably be right.

#216 Vicpaul on 01.07.16 at 10:15 am

#172. WUL
Some folks complain that the cowboys on Wall Street that hung the world economy over the precipice, circa 2008, were not jailed. We have not recovered from that event.

Rob with a pistol, they put you in jail.

Rob with a fountain pen, they make you King.

I think Woody Guthrie wrote this.
———————–
Sounds like a Dylan line from Jokerman ( VERY good album).
” steal a little and they put you in jail, steal a lot and they make you king”.
Let us brace for the coming roller coaster ride. )

#217 liquidincalgary on 01.07.16 at 10:33 am

Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.16 at 12:07 am

Says Canadian Dollar Bills are all the rage now.

================================================

good luck finding any of those

#218 pbrasseur on 01.07.16 at 10:40 am

@Working guy in BC #216

« My prediction is assessments in YVR will be up between 10-20% by the end of 2016.»

So what if true? Those gains will never materialize for 99% of the population, worse they would make a few more new and worse fools and the descent even more painful for all.

Doesn’t matter how long it takes to realize it, most of this wealth is fictitious.

#219 HCWTT on 01.07.16 at 10:43 am

#182 Fed-up on 01.07.16 at 2:17 am
Ummmm a 58 cent dollar by late 2017???
http://longforecast.com/fx/canadian-dollar-to-us-dollar-forecast-for-2015-2016-and-2017.html

It won’t be that bad, will it?
I have a significant amount of USD but that has been shrinking as my investments have been sucking wind since late 2014. I guess I will have to pray for this to offset my losses, lol.
____________________________________________
Planning that far out in this particular environment of risky. The US$ could be anywhere as much as the Yuan or the CDN$. There are way too many debacles going on right now. The Chinese are provoking just about everyone in the South China Sea with their manmade Island. Beijing’s assertions of its claims have sparked a round of terse exchanges, mainly among China, Vietnam and the Philippines. They are asserting their sovereignty over long-disputed and potentially rich oil and gas offshore territories that are also claimed by Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei. This has dragged the Philippines and thus the US into the mix which has refused to recognize the new man-made islands as a part of China. Fiery Cross reef is the largest one of around 2000 acres in which the Chinese just completed an airstrip capable of landing military aircraft. The US has sailed past the Island and flown over it with both China and the US playing the cross the line game. The result could be instability in the region and or a small scale war with China fought via the local players backed by US support.
We have a new player in the game of Thrones in the Middle East. The Saudi’s are now pushing hard with the Iranians to assert their control over the Middle East. The tense relations between Tehran and Riyadh was intensified last week when Saudi Arabia executed a prominent Shia cleric (Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr) who was critical of the al-Saud kingdom, plus 45 other Shia branded terrorists. This caused the UN to even condemn the executions as they knew it was another jab at the Iranians. The hardliners showed their anger by storming the Saudi embassy in Tehran and setting it on fire. Immediately Riyadh, along with a number of its allies responding by severing diplomatic ties with Tehran. It has now led to the Iranians banned all imports of goods from Saudi Arabia and not allowing pilgrimages to Mecca. The Saudis have banned all citizens from traveling to Iran. The two countries are on opposing sides when it comes to supporting the struggles in the region such as Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq. When push comes to shove and a small scale conflict happens the Iranians will shut down the Strait of Hormuz. When that happens oil stops flowing to the world.
Now we come to Kim Jong Un and North Korea. They have apparently detonated an underground weapons test again. Blatantly against international law and prier nuclear agreements with the west. They have also developed a missile that is now capable of reaching the US west coast. China is quite complacent to keep North Korea as a buffer between them and the west however dealings between Pyongyang and Beijing have been cool since Kim Jong Un succeeded his late father as dictator. Kim Jong Un immediately started removing several strategic government figures. One of the figures was his own uncle Jang Song Thaek to whom he had strong ties to China. China views Kim Jong Un as a rogue, reckless and immature leader that they have to tolerate. Kim has not personally met with Chinas President Xi Jinping in China as leader and it appears Xi Jinping does not know what to do with him. If North Korea continues on the same path China will have to react. The North Koreans really don’t like the Chinese and actually resent them. The North Koreans detest the notion that the Chinese can control them. The weapons testing is an insult to China and Xi Jinping personally. Xi Jinping will react and it will not be pretty. It will not start a war with the Chinese however the west will not tolerate Kim Jung Un having a finger on the button of an intercontinental missile capable of holding a nuclear payload. The US and the west will act on this.
These are just a few the top issues in the world. I didn’t even mention “ISIL”, “ISIS”, “Daish”, “Daesh” or “Islamic State group”. Personally I consider them just plain old murderous thieving rapist scum. So add on to the top 2016 issues and then create a long term plan. I guarantee you your plan will have to change and adapt.

#220 JimH on 01.07.16 at 10:43 am

#192 neo on 01.07.16 at 6:40 am
“Garth,
I believe you assured us several months ago China was fixed or contained or whatever adjective you used to define a market intervention which was nothing short of a bandaid on a severed leg. How is that meme going? How is the global contagion of that being contained going?”
================================
Yes, China is “struggling” to maintain an annual growth rate of 7%
We should be so lucky. This is not to say China is problem free.

This quickie little chart shows the action of the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index: set it out to 5 years and you get some perspective on where it is relative to where it’s been.

Summer 2014: index at 2,150
June 2015: index at 5,230 (wow! over 200% gain in less than a year!)
Late Sept 2015: index at 3,231 (a drop of 38% in a single quarter)
Late Dec 2015: index at 3,838 (gain of 19% in a single quarter)
Current index at 3,294 (a drop of 14%)

Stock markets in China are home to many serious investors, don’t get me wrong. They are also sadly seen by many Chinese as casinos where good luck and fortunate timing can make anyone rich. The gamblers are getting burned and will be weeded down as Chinese markets mature.

In the meantime, they provide a cautionary tale for those who believe the markets are a great place to get rich quick! They are not now and never have been. Many seem to assume that warren Buffet, for example, got rich in the stock market. He did no such thing, but certainly used the markets to grow the wealth he accumulated through mergers and acquisitions, etc.

As for your rather cavalier use of the word “contagion”, I think that we’re a long, long way from that, as we (US markets) have not yet come close to even testing our recent September lows.

Let’s put this in perspective: If you pull up a 10 year daily, weekly or monthly chart of the S&P 500 (SPY), you’ll see what “contagion” did to 2008 through March 2009! Do we look even close to that today? I think not.

We can gain a lot by standing back and taking a look at the bigger picture of where we are, where we’ve come from, where we’re most likely to go.

In any case, risk-management is key to success, and panic is never a good replacement for it!

Good luck!

#221 Noel on 01.07.16 at 10:49 am

You’re a sucker if you’re paying a 5% commission in Toronto. These can be negotiated to less than half that.

#222 standardidiot on 01.07.16 at 10:55 am

Canada must let negative forces behind low dollar, oil prices play out: Poloz
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz speaks during a news …

By The Canadian Press

OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada says overcoming the economic suffering inflicted by the commodity-price shock essentially boils down to one main option: ride it out.

Translation: savers are stupid, let them suck it up.

In a speech Thursday, central bank governor Stephen Poloz said no simple policy response will fix the problem, although some measures can buffer the negative effects of factors such as the steep slide in oil prices.

Comment: There is, increase the interest rate to protect the currency.

“The forces that have been set in motion simply must work themselves out,” Poloz said in a prepared text of a speech at Ottawa City Hall.

Translation: We will not do the right thing/increase rates as the public are idiots.

“The economy’s adjustment process can be difficult and painful for individuals, and there are policies that can help buffer those effects, but the adjustments must eventually happen.”

Translation: You are screwed, but that was inevaitable so try not to move too much and enjoy it/the ride! (he actually said it!).

Under Poloz’s leadership, the central bank lowered its trend-setting interest rate twice in the last 12 months to help cushion the blow of the oil slump.
He noted that Canada’s the dollar has tumbled along to roughly the same levels they stood at over a decade ago.
“It is not a coincidence that the Canadian dollar is about where it was back in 2003 and 2004 — oil prices are also about where they were back then,” said Poloz, who also listed some of the benefits of a lower loonie.
At the time of the speech, the loonie was trading below 71 cents US, about where it was in mid-2003 as the currency when it was recovering from a historic low of 61.79 cents US set in January 2002.
A benchmark oil price ducked under US$34 a barrel on Wednesday, the lowest level since 2008, but was even lower on Thursday. Poloz noted that oil prices were around US$25 per barrel in 2002.
Almost like it was 2002 all over again, Poloz said the complex economic changes have led to higher consumer spending, falling employment and lower investment in the resources sector.
He acknowledges that there is no economy outside of the resource sector; otherwise the CAD would not be defined by othe oil price. He missed to point out the ‘benefits’ of higher food prices. Gas not not 1 $ in 2002, nor food prices are back to their levels 10 years ago.
Under Poloz’s leadership, the central bank lowered its trend-setting interest rate twice in the last

Comment: That’s an ‘exemplary’ leadership.

Non-resources sectors, meanwhile, have seen rising employment and investment, Poloz added.

Comment: This is an outright lie. With weaker currency you can not import expensive equipment and get capital investment going in order to stay competitive. Who will consume the indebted public?

Conclusion from his speech:
– Savers in CAD are idiots. Look at the action in CAD lately.
– He will pursue negative interest rates (as he proudly proclaimed recently).
– He thinks that the low CAD revives the economy which is proven absolutely wrong by the latest GDP and job numbers. Due to his excessive irresponsible policies this is just pushing the inevitable crash to the future while making it even more severe.
– He will not change his policies and increase rates even if CAD get slaughtered due to oil going to sub 20 $ per barrel.

Is this person qualified to lead BOC? If he was the professional they claim he is, he would be leading a hedge fund on Wall Street and making 20 times his current salary.

#223 The Other Chris on 01.07.16 at 10:56 am

@213 gladiator on 01.07.16 at 9:40 am

Most tax brackets are already indexed to inflation. The only exceptions are some provincial tax brackets. The two top tax brackets in Ontario are not indexed to inflation. I don’t believe the top bracket in New Brunswick is either.

#224 Smoking Man on 01.07.16 at 10:56 am

Ouch PMI gets crushed

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/business-confidence

Good Bye CAD Hello Recession.

Rumour has it, Wynne is on set making another man bashing ad, Justin seen in a mall buying a new selfie stick. Butts rubbing his hands and laughing like the joker as his dreams of de-industrializing Canada is coming to fruition.

Smoking man getting bombarded with thank you emails for putting them onto AVA trade. And betting against the maple leaf.

Your welcome dogs.

#225 standardidiot on 01.07.16 at 11:13 am

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-must-let-negative-forces-behind-low-dollar-132226449.html

just look at the comments

#226 standardidiot on 01.07.16 at 11:25 am

If oil keeps going down Poloz will cut the rates and CAD will hit sub .60. Truly ‘loonie’.

Oil accounts for 3-5 % of our ‘economy’. Why is he cutting rates when it goes down?

#227 Doug in London on 01.07.16 at 11:26 am

@MF, post #144:
If they really are greedy, wouldn’t they want to take the money and run? I sure as hell would be, and would probably set speed records when doing so.

#228 NoName on 01.07.16 at 11:36 am

Its all good now, we are just officially transitioned from 1st work country to developing nations or something, not quote 3rd w C jet… Sad day indeed.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/bank-of-canada-governor-says-we-should-get-used-to-a-cheap-dollar/article28047437/

Bank of Canada governor says we should get used to a cheap dollar

#229 lee on 01.07.16 at 11:49 am

John Schmuel of National Post says China stock market crash will only fuel the Toronto/Vancouver real estate market higher as the Chinese look for a place to put their money. Higher, higher, higher. It’s not a question of buy now or buy never. The ship has simply sailed for most in the last few years when it comes to buying real estate in Toronto/Vancouver. I hear Belleville is nice.

#230 Herb on 01.07.16 at 12:06 pm

#195 saskatoon,

O.M.G.!!!

#231 TRT on 01.07.16 at 12:09 pm

Poloz just reiterated “Negative Rates” again.

If you are under 35-40, leave Canada for the USA using the TN1 visa. Go to texas where there is no income taxes. At the end of the day, keep double what you would here. Cone back when loonie recovers or age 65 to collect pension.

#232 broader mind on 01.07.16 at 12:09 pm

Money is worthless,equities are worthless,bonds are worthless,oil’s worthless,gold is worthless and Canadian homes are very valuable. Wtf is wrong with this picture? Lord help us all.

#233 TRT on 01.07.16 at 12:13 pm

The revolt will start from amongst the retired seniors on fixed incomes.

Will Canadians have the kahunas to riot if Poloz pushes the loonie down further? Or take it like the politically correct sheep they have become? Any takers to answer this question?

#234 dion on 01.07.16 at 12:17 pm

I’m going to buy me a vacation condo at Whistler after this is all over. And I’m going to pay 100k USD for it and not a penny more. Watch.

#235 Smoking Man on 01.07.16 at 12:18 pm

For those cheerleading mortgage rate hikes by RBC
Its political in nature. Nothing but a futile attempt to cool the markets..

The bond marked is pricing in more rate cuts.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

#236 Calgary Rip Off on 01.07.16 at 12:18 pm

Housing is down, from what outrageous highs?

Please. Housing is still DOUBLE what it was pre 2005. Oil is down and gas is still $1/Liter.

The sky is falling? For who? The very rich?

Calgary house 2004: $200K. 2016: $500K. Still

#237 Smoking Man on 01.07.16 at 12:25 pm

#234 TRT on 01.07.16 at 12:13 pm
The revolt will start from amongst the retired seniors on fixed incomes.

Will Canadians have the kahunas to riot if Poloz pushes the loonie down further? Or take it like the politically correct sheep they have become? Any takers to answer this question?
….

To start a revolt, you need men with cahoonas. If poloz put on some skates and dared to enter a hockey rink, he would get his ass kicked.

Off the ice Canada has the largest ratio of emasculated pc men in the entire world.

Its a Canadian thing, Ah.

#238 saskatoon on 01.07.16 at 12:27 pm

#231 Herb

notice how he thinks he is “winning” here…but is actually working effectively to prove my point.

he is seemingly incapable of providing any sort of rational response–either due to low IQ or hyper-rationalization–so instead tries to evoke an emotional response in others…

to invoke group consensus, sustain delusion, and avoid reality.

dangerous…and yet…fascinating.

#239 Mr. Frugal on 01.07.16 at 12:52 pm

#19 Herb on 01.06.16 at 6:24 pm
Anxiously waiting to find out who will be the first poster to blame “T2” and his “tax and spend” government for this “perfect storm” and the resulting havoc.

===========================

Not to worry Herb. Our glorious leader, the great T2 has everything well in hand. Just travelling around the world passing out free cash and apologizing for our carbon emissions and other transgressions. After all the budget will look after itself. No doubt the economy will look after itself and likewise for the dollarette. All is good in the land of libtard political correctness. It’s a good thing that we are assured of such grand results with no effort on the part of our glorious leader. Otherwise, he would have to take time out from his busy schedule of flirting with every skirt in town for selfies.

#240 Capt. Obvious on 01.07.16 at 1:00 pm

Now is the winter of our discontent!

#241 TurnerNation on 01.07.16 at 1:01 pm

The war has come home as expected.
Divide and conquer. For Toronto from cp24.com;

“Overall, shootings were also up dramatically in 2015 with 395 recorded occurrences compared to 243 the year before. A total of 164 of those shootings did not result in injury (up 215 per cent from 2014), however 133 did (up 75 per cent from 2014).”

#242 Capt. Obvious on 01.07.16 at 1:04 pm

The sky is falling? For who? The very rich?

Calgary house 2004: $200K. 2016: $500K. Still

Very useful if one has a time machine. Sadly, I do not. The person deciding whether to buy a house today cares mostly about the latter number, and what it will be 5 years from now. There are no doubt echelons of people in Calgary who bought homes in the past 5 years who are about to find out how income and interest rates play important roles in how real estate is valued.

#243 PR on 01.07.16 at 1:09 pm

Montreal real estate going up, again, 11% in decembre.

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2016/01/07/immobilier-les-ventes-residentielles-ont-bondi-de-11–en-decembre-dans-la-region-de-montreal

…gave away billions to fight climate change in countries which never heard of us…

If this doesn’t flash a big red light, you are sleeping!

M Trudeau and is beautiful family, will enjoy a fantastic life, after pleasing the powerful people, when he was prime minister. Nothing new under the sun!

#244 Capt. Obvious on 01.07.16 at 1:17 pm

#32 gut check

What we NEED, Bill, for starters, is INNOVATION.
Which the government cannot provide. The citizenry must rise to the occasion.

We need seed money for small to mid sized businesses.
To do what with, exactly? Financing failing businesses is not a model for success either. Succeeding businesses shouldn’t have much trouble getting additional financing. Starting up businesses, ok, got me there, maybe needs more support.

We need to banish inter-provincial trade barriers.
Sounds good.

We need cheaper, faster transportation from coast to coast.
Why? Are you doing a lot of shipping? Telecom has made travel to locations largely irrelevant.

We need a more affordable, reliable postal service.
Efficient, sure. Reliable, hmm I find them quite reliable. Mail arrives. Mail gets sent.

We need to eliminate the red tape to start businesses.
No opinion.

We need lower payroll taxes
What services are you willing to give up? Are you willing to have a higher HST?

We need simplified Revenue Canada obligations
For most of the citizens, I don’t think it’s that complicated. You must be speaking to businesses and those clever folks who try to avoid taxes, thus complicating the tax code.

We need better re-training programs and cheaper education.
Can’t hurt.

We need to stop double dipping whereby retired people collecting pensions can work full time too.
Disagree. They paid for it with their employment contributions. They still have to pay income tax.

We need a bunch of things Bill but more [email protected] rock crushers & excavators all over our cities and highways isn’t one of them.
Well, at least we end up with something concrete after spending the money, which is more than I can say for many government initiatives. I’m for it.

#245 HCWTT on 01.07.16 at 1:39 pm

#240 Mr. Frugal on 01.07.16 at 12:52 pm

#19 Herb on 01.06.16 at 6:24 pm
Anxiously waiting to find out who will be the first poster to blame “T2” and his “tax and spend” government for this “perfect storm” and the resulting havoc.
===========================
Not to worry Herb. Our glorious leader, the great T2 has everything well in hand. Just travelling around the world passing out free cash and apologizing for our carbon emissions and other transgressions. After all the budget will look after itself. No doubt the economy will look after itself and likewise for the dollarette. All is good in the land of libtard political correctness. It’s a good thing that we are assured of such grand results with no effort on the part of our glorious leader. Otherwise, he would have to take time out from his busy schedule of flirting with every skirt in town for selfies.
………………………………………………………………..
You know the pathetic thing is that T1 had a purpose to gut Canada’s status in the world, our military and our manufacturing then to import cheap labour. He was the devil your knew. T2 is a green political punk that doesn’t know how the majority of Canadians really earn a living. He is the devil you don’t know. Well congratulations all of you who voted him and the Libtards in, your stuck with a declining dollar, no potential job increases and a crappy economy that no amount of money can spend yourself out of.

#246 Calgary Rip Off on 01.07.16 at 1:43 pm

#243 Capt Obvious:

That may be the case for mortgage owners in Calgary if there was no down payment, if interest rates skyrocket(not just +1%), and the client was at the upper limit of their limits for cash from the bank. That involves self control. If mortgages were acquired rationally, and the job is reasonable for the amount borrowed, not only will the payments despite increased interest be ok, the mortgage owner should be able to requalify if the market value takes a hit on what the city assesses for the property’s worth. And in a worse case scenario, say you cant afford the payments and/or requalify, it isnt a death sentence. Is it uncomfortable? Definitely. However failing to take action initially is the same as taking another decision. Either way you choose. Mortgage ownership has options. Things like death don’t. It’s not a question there if, but when. Unfortunately many “adults” choose unwise coping tools such as smoking and drinking both of which are stupid, rather than doing what children do which is run around, play video games and have fun. Really overrated, being mature. When I am “mature” I will be dead.

#247 HCWTT on 01.07.16 at 1:44 pm

Oh yes almost forgot T2 was also elected on Marijuana legalization. What the hell are Canadians thinking? This was one of his election platforms. What a bunch of losers we are picking that as one of the platform stances. Jeeeesssse. Lets see how that worked when the GOP runs America again.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-legalizing-pot-global-treaties-1.3390745

#248 Julie K. on 01.07.16 at 1:45 pm

#238 Smoking Man ~ “Off the ice Canada has the largest ratio of emasculated pc men in the entire world.”

*****

True that.

And I smell opportunity. It is exactly the right time in history for female leadership — right around the world.

No wonder #Daesh is running scared.

#FSP

#249 Randy on 01.07.16 at 1:46 pm

A question for all you socialists out there. Is it time to UN-exempt gains on a principal residence if you live in Toronto and Vancouver ?

#250 Godth on 01.07.16 at 1:52 pm

It’s Just A Ride
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgzQuE1pR1w

#251 Dups on 01.07.16 at 2:05 pm

@ #4 Leroy Washington:

You are an idiot.
You know we as Canadians are free to invest in whatever country we want right. We invest in US stocks as we see fit as well. Therefore using your US economy when we want.
Countries are just boundaries on the maps now days and wars are all economic.

#252 neo on 01.07.16 at 2:06 pm

#200 pbrasseur on 01.07.16 at 8:01 am
At this rate the CAD will be below 70 cents before the end of next week.

I have said I expect the Loonie to revisit its previous 2002 low of 62 cents. We might be getting there sooner than expected.

What is apparently less expected is how long the Canadian economic slump will be… My guess is at least a decade and a standard of living that will decline by at least 30% relative to the US. Welcome to Trudeaupia folks, it had never really left us!

********************************************

You do realize Harper was at the wheel at for this debacle that is unfolding before our eyes. None of these parties give a damn about you. I don’t understand why people bother picking sides.

#253 Dups on 01.07.16 at 2:13 pm

I think the market laid an egg today.
Time to click the buy button.

#254 banks are force to raise the rates on 01.07.16 at 2:14 pm

The banks are feeling the pinch with higher borrowing costs as pressures on the economy make them look less credit-worthy. Investors now demand about 129 extra basis points of yield to hold five-year bonds from top-rated Canadian banks compared with government benchmark notes, the biggest premium tracked by Bloomberg data since 2010. That premium was 51 basis points at the end of 2009.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/why-homeowners-and-buyers-can-expect-more-mortgage-rate-hikes-from-the-big-banks

#255 Freeman on 01.07.16 at 2:14 pm

Warren Buffet said that the trick to getting rich is to buy when everyone else is selling,,,,,,

BUT THEN AGAIN,

If you try to catch a falling knife,
you just might get your hand cut off.

Is today’s falling market a buying opportunity, or is it the knife that will cut your hand off ?

#256 calgaryPhantom on 01.07.16 at 2:18 pm

So far, this year is proving that diversification is not going to save you when things go south.

The blog of short-term thinkers. A wonder to behold. — Garth

#257 Aggregator on 01.07.16 at 2:57 pm

Strategist Talks 'Return of the Northern Peso' as Canada's Oil Shock Enters New Phase

New Terms:

Loonie = Norte Peso

Vancouver = Vancapulco

Toronto = Tabasco

Moose = Perro Grande con Cuernos

Real Estate = Casa de Hiperinflación

Canadian = Una tribu del norte que pensaban que eran ricos

Break Even Oil Price: Oh Dios mío

#258 murgpd on 01.07.16 at 2:57 pm

Canadians will just keep doing the same thing until this goes down the crapper. Canadians are PC sheep who can’t think for themselves.

#259 For those about to flop... on 01.07.16 at 3:08 pm

Granted I’ve only got 100k invested in the stock market ,but there seems to be a lot of guys on here that don’t like taking the stairs on the way up and the elevator on the way down..

M41BC

#260 Godth on 01.07.16 at 3:13 pm

The blog of short-term thinkers. A wonder to behold. — Garth

As opposed to those that live their lives based on quarterly earnings…

Short term thinking is the human condition, thinking long term is too scary, depressing and incomprehensible. We wouldn’t be doing what we’re doing if we were truly capable of long term thinking. Get yours while you can.
Ocean Apocalypse Now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xmd6fAgDCrA

This is why most people fail at finance. And then elect politicians to tax those who don’t. — Garth

#261 Evangeline on 01.07.16 at 3:13 pm

#74 Saskatoon “switzerland, norway and finland all have higher rates of mass-shooting deaths per capita than the u.s..”

Do you mean Sweden? Switzerland has mandatory gun ownership.

#262 Keith on 01.07.16 at 3:17 pm

Garth,

A bit disappointing that you attack Trudeau and Notley for the outcome of years of mismanagement under the “Harper government” and in Alberta, the Klein clan. It’s intellectually dishonest.

Is it that you cannot bring yourself to admit you were part of the club of incompetents?

How a supposedly Conservative government with a supposed economist as PM could implement the following policies is beyond me:

-cutting consumption taxes instead of income taxes
-expanding the tax code with more useless deductions
-grossly inflating the housing market by loosening mortgage qualifications

Where would the economy be today if simply the above three policies weren’t undertaken by the previous Conservative government.

I’ll vote anybody but conservative for a long while to come because the conservative parties in this country are anything but conservative. They couldn’t pass a high school economics class with an open book exam. They are simply tea party-esque ideologues who believe fairy tales over sound economic doctrine. And their obsession with public morals (barbaric practices snitch line) only makes them that much less appealing. That the public chose Trudeau, is not an indictment of the public. It’s an indictment of Harper and his brand of conservatism.

If you want the public to vote out Trudeau and his ilk, you had better start sharpening your invective against the Conservatives. I still see zero evidence of any actual policy change. All I see are a bunch who think some minor cosmetic changes will get them back in government.

Blaming anyone for the past is a mug’s game. I’m worried about the future impact of present policies. Stop being an ideologue. Bad thinking. — Garth

#263 jess on 01.07.16 at 3:18 pm

These must be the angry rich Mr Krugman was writing about?

Karl Lagerfeld faces £15m tax probe after ‘hiding money for six years’ (7 Jan 2016)
Guy Wildenstein ‘hid assets using offshore funds in $600m tax fraud’ (7 Jan 2016)
US Justice Department Announces Resolution under Swiss Bank Program with Union Bancaire Privée, UBP SA (7 Jan 2016)
UBP to pay $187 million to avoid US charges of aiding tax evasion (7 Jan 2016)
Zeus Capital co-founder probed over tax scheme (7Jan 2016)
Tax-Trade Mess Lingers at Bank of America (7 Jan 2016)

Texas tycoon Wyly faces $2 billion tax trial over offshore trusts (6 Jan 2016)

Tax-Trade Mess Lingers at Bank of America
BofA dismantled group that helped clients avoid paying, but regulators press on with probes; a ban on ‘SEFT’
By Jenny Strasburg
Jan. 6, 2016 10:18 p.m. ET

A group at Bank of America Corp. that specialized in arranging trades to help clients around the world avoid taxes has been dismantled. Some employees claim they aren’t even allowed to say the group’s name anymore.

=
The key questions are: what happens over time in this downward-spiralling cycle? And are the benefits of attracting multinational corporations (MNCs) worth the costs of foregone public revenue?

It is this dynamic that I have tracked in my paper, “Lowering the Marginal Corporate Tax Rate: Why the Debate?” It offers a 60-nation analysis of the economic impact of inter-state tax competition over time.
Why doesn’t lowering the Marginal Corporate Tax Rate boost growth?

http://foolsgold.international/new-research-competing-aggressively-on-tax-reduces-growth/

#264 Bram on 01.07.16 at 3:24 pm

The blog of short-term thinkers. A wonder to behold. — Garth

Well Garth, actually….

Diversification becomes less important as the term grows longer.

If a 20 yo invests money NOW for his retirement in 45 years, it really does not matter if he goes 100% REIT, 100% Asia, 100% US or 100% tech.

Those portfolios will wildly swing up and down over the course of 45 years, but each and every choice will result in big fat gains, suitable for retirement.

Just as long as he goes with stocks, not with GIC or bonds.

Bram

#265 Keith on 01.07.16 at 3:27 pm

@HCWTT

“Well congratulations all of you who voted him and the Libtards in, your stuck with a declining dollar, no potential job increases and a crappy economy that no amount of money can spend yourself out of.”

===============

And here I was thinking it was the conservative strategy of all eggs in one (“energy superpower”) basket, and their loosening of mortgage qualifcations, and their populist tax strategies that lead to our current predicament. The dollar started falling under the Harperites. Turning the CAD into a petrodollar has consequences. You’d think the conservatives would have known that. But they couldn’t admit that Dutch disease was decimating the industrial heartland, lest it threaten the boom in their precious Alberta.

I fully blame our current economic predicament on the Harper government and to a lesser extent the Wynne Liberals (unfortunately there are no competent government-in-waiting parties in Ontario either).

#266 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.16 at 3:31 pm

I’ve always postulated that the way China moves, the way Canada will move.
Forget the US.
I hear Mandarin classes are filling up fast.

#267 Hanna Swanson on 01.07.16 at 3:32 pm

I hope this time we are in for a real depression and real estate becomes 65% cheaper at the very least.

This way all taxes collected by all governments are going up in smoke.

Remember Dow Jones 30,000 by 2000. Yeah, right!

#268 Godth on 01.07.16 at 3:33 pm

This is why most people fail at finance. And then elect politicians to tax those who don’t. — Garth

Too ideological and myopic – zoom out.

#269 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.16 at 3:34 pm

In a sea of red, Gold is moving up.
Looking forward to this year’s episodes of Yukon Gold.

#270 espressobob on 01.07.16 at 3:35 pm

Market turmoil? More downside? Bring it on, please!

The indices are safer to buy when they’re down. Funny how so many don’t get that part?

It’s good to be a contrarian.

#271 jess on 01.07.16 at 3:40 pm

Egypt follows India, blocks Facebook’s “free” or “zero rated” Internet service?
https://www.yahoo.com/tech/facebook-accidentally-asks-u-users-183159272.html

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/tech-news/put-fbs-free-basics-service-on-hold-trai-tells-reliance-communications/articleshow/50290490.cms?from=mdr

http://www.digitaltrends.com/social-media/facebook-mark-zuckerberg-defends-free-basics/

#272 Big Dipper on 01.07.16 at 3:42 pm

“Blaming anyone for the past is a mug’s game. I’m worried about the future impact of present policies. Stop being an ideologue. Bad thinking. — Garth”
——————
You blaming someone for being an ideologue is hilarious!

#273 TRT on 01.07.16 at 3:45 pm

China going for a 3-peat tonite. Another -7% downday coming.

More capital outflows escaping the stagnant Chinese economy means more money to be parked in YVR RE.

Oh, Chinese electricity use increased only by 0.7% YoY.

#274 TRT on 01.07.16 at 3:49 pm

@253 neo ” None of these parties give a damn about you”

Correct. The parties nowadays represent specific interests. The public can be hoodwinked by those who own the media.

The people who think the parties give a damn about them are the ones that are going to be left without chairs when the music stops.

#275 Calgary Rip Off on 01.07.16 at 3:51 pm

#248 On marijuana legalization.

Who wouldnt want pot legalization? Think of the money! You think GOP and its supporters dont want pot legal? Think again. Trump is awesome. He is a businessman. Hillary is a loser.

If you think pot should be illegal, then so should caffeine, cigarettes, and alcohol. Make it all illegal. Marijuana is an herb. A plant. The U.S.A. mandated all farmers grow pot in the 1700’s. And now it is illegal? Stupid. It is just so harmful smoking marijuana, so bunch more than cigarettes(sarcasm).

Harper is a pretend conservative. Elect the real deal in Donald Trump.

#276 For those about to flop... on 01.07.16 at 3:56 pm

#274 TRT on 01.07.16 at 3:45 pm
China going for a 3-peat tonite. Another -7% downday coming.

More capital outflows escaping the stagnant Chinese economy means more money to be parked in YVR RE.

Oh, Chinese electricity use increased only by 0.7% YoY.
////////////////////////////////////////////

I have a suspicion that some of the money that gets pulled out of China ,gets reinvested in India as people go looking for the ” hot new thing”.
My India fund is up 4% for the last month for no good reason…

M41BC

#277 gut check on 01.07.16 at 4:04 pm

@ Captain Obvious –

Yes, I meant for businesses. All of it. The reason I concentrated on what would benefit small and mid sized businesses is because those are the keys to a strong middle class and a healthy way of life.

With the measures I suggested Canada could begin to be more self sufficient. We could do better business and travel within our own country. We could distribute goods across our vast landmass.

With these steps (and a few more) creative, business minded people would take the chance to work for themselves by seeing ways to improve products and services and they would find themselves encouraged to put their ideas into practice rather than get discouraged by the endless bureaucratic nightmare that would take all of their time, money and energy from doing their work and channel it instead into doing the government’s.

If more people were encouraged to create and then share their creations there would be more work opportunities in all manner of fields. Canada could stand a chance at becoming known around the world as a leader in just about anything. Think Swiss watches or belgian chocolate or Italian sportscars.

But hey, if what you want is a back breaking job for yourself and your sons then yeah – I can see why the infrastructure building play gets your heart beating faster.

Can’t you see, though, that those jobs will always be there anyway? Do you want everyone to be competing for those same 12 hour shifts in the sweltering heat only to go back home and drink themselves into oblivion till morning starts again? Wouldn’t it be nice if there were OTHER people out here who could provide the NON-construction things you might like to take advantage of during your two weeks vacation?

#278 RE #200 pbrasseur on 01.07.16 at 4:07 pm

#200 pbrasseur

“At this rate the CAD will be below 70 cents before the end of next week.
I have said I expect the Loonie to revisit its previous 2002 low of 62 cents. We might be getting there sooner than expected.
What is apparently less expected is how long the Canadian economic slump will be… My guess is at least a decade and a standard of living that will decline by at least 30% relative to the US. Welcome to Trudeaupia folks, it had never really left us!”
====================================

Well, the C$ will go down but BOC may try to defend it at 1.50 and perhaps even at 2 for 1.

BOC will also cut the rates as they do not have any other choice left.

However in some not that distant day in the future someone will look and will say -look ma, the emperor does not have any clothes and all the hell will break loose.

End result – “deagel.com” predictions for 2025
http://www.deagel.com/country/forecast.aspx

Canada’s economy will be 35% of the present day but still much better compared to the USA’s (forecasted to be only 5% of the present). And as a direct consequence of this – our standard of living will be much lower but still double compared to the our southern neighbors.

And perhaps our C$ will be worth two US$ (and MARK will finally be vindicated)

#279 TRT on 01.07.16 at 4:16 pm

#277 For those about to flop…

I agree. India is the next big thing. But corruption and connections rule there. If you know which companies/sectors have the rulers ears, then BINGO!

#280 Godth on 01.07.16 at 4:18 pm

#275 TRT on 01.07.16 at 3:49 pm

It’s really all about supporting “the system” but the “system” is unsustainable. We’re trapped in a progress trap. This is the time that we really find out what we’re made of. Business as unusual is a suicide mission for humanity as a species. Frankly I’m extremely skeptical but one never knows. Maybe we can shake off the conspicuous consumption, propaganda, ideologies, unpayable debt etc. and find value in life simply in the living of a humble life. Life is more amazing than the market dictates but we’re trained monkeys at this point.

The real story going forward will be make believe debt, limited resources and war. Can we grow up as a species? When the option is annihilation maybe we can…maybe not. What an exciting time to be alive!

#281 acdel on 01.07.16 at 4:30 pm

Don’t Worry Be Happy!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-diB65scQU

#282 Millmech on 01.07.16 at 4:37 pm

I see all the suggestions on here for govt to diversify into small and medium size business.The problem in Canada is that if you get too successful everyone wants to tax you to death because of your success or you must be doing something illegal.In this country we are taught not to be innovative or smart,just get along by going along.We will never be able to compete because of our mindset.

#283 The American on 01.07.16 at 4:37 pm

At 279: You said, “Canada’s economy will be 35% of the present day but still much better compared to the USA’s (forecasted to be only 5% of the present). And as a direct consequence of this – our standard of living will be much lower but still double compared to the our southern neighbors.”

Wow. I’m not sure where to begin with that ignorant nonsense. I truly hope you don’t believe that drivel from an uncredited doomsday website, bless your heart. Not every flower can save love, but a rose can. Not every plant survives thirst, but a cactus can. Not every idiot can read, but look at you go, little buddy! Today you too should take a moment and send this encouraging message to a fucked up person like yourself, just as I’ve done. I don’t care if you lick windows, or screw farm animals. You hang in there cupcake, because you’re special. Look at you smiling at your screen even now, you Crayon-eating bastard.

#284 OXI in GREECE on 01.07.16 at 4:55 pm

#215 JimH on 01.07.16 at 9:52 am
#183 OXI in GREECE on 01.07.16 at 3:33 am
“http://www.brasilpost.com.br/2016/01/06/mortes-overdose-de-maconha_n_8924146.html?utm_hp_ref=brazil

For all you bozos who still think weed is bad – turn on your translator to read this article from Brazil. An article you will NEVER see in the West. Booze for example is 114 times MORE lethal than weed. You would need to smoke 650 kgs of weed in 15 minutes to overdose on it….”
===================================

Well, it’s extremely obvious that weed has never done you any good!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Its extremely obvious you know nothing about weed. Go back to your bottle of toxic booze.

#285 Sideshow Rob on 01.07.16 at 4:58 pm

Etrade baby…seems appropriate again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYrpROr9Gmk&feature=youtu.be

#286 SWL1976 on 01.07.16 at 4:59 pm

#278 gut check – I agree that Canada is a bureaucratic nightmare for small business. Especially small business that perhaps thinks outside the box to which there are no current standards or comparissions for.

We need to cut the red tape, remove the bubble wrap and let people do commerce.

Simple yet effective.

However, we would have see a glut of government workers who are used to being paid to stand in the way suddenly having to be creative to earn a living.

#287 Josh in Calgary on 01.07.16 at 5:03 pm

Calgary – The O&G pain is spreading to non-O&G businesses (Even manicure shops). Business owners we talk to all say business is way down.
——————–
Too true. I developed my own economic indicator. The owner of the coffee shop we go to use to have 3 staff doing all of the work and he would just over see everything, chip in occasionally and I’m sure run the business side of things. Now he has one staff and he’s in there taking orders and doing half the work. As soon as I see him hire another worker or two I’ll know we’re on the road to recovery.

#288 TheLaughingCON on 01.07.16 at 5:06 pm

Message to Bill Morneau:

1. Drastic (but temporarily) changes in the Canada’s immigration policy – stop all present immigration policies (skilled, business, family class etc).

Start selling Canadian citizenship for $1 million (or even U$1 million) per head – while we still have a good reputation, economy and are considered safe haven in this world. In addition you may request any such approved family to have extra million or two in cash to purchase a property to live in Canada (no mortgages once approved, or at least no mortgage by Canadian bank, financial institutions or credit union)

With luck we will have 600,000-1,000,000 new citizens in the next 3-4 years (in reality this is the present day immigration target but only with rich people).

Use the proceed to pay off the federal debt. End result of this is Canada will pay off its federal debt and may pay off the provincial debts too especially if selling in US$. This will free billions of dollars currently dedicated to interest payments to be used for other purpose – infrastructure, health care, education and retraining etc, investments in technology…

The other result is that these 600k-1mil new citizens (or looked as 250k-350k families) will purchase homes for cash – which will bring an addition $250 billion to $750 billion in Canada’s economy and also make 250k-350k present day Canadian RE owners a millionaires.

And ultimately one day when we have attracted a sufficient numbers of high net worth individuals introduce a tax on the worldwide income and then revert back to the old immigration policies.

2. Big reason for these huge RE gains is speculation from a small minority in the population – in order to cool that introduce a new tax on the proceeds from the RE transactions depending of the length of home ownership on a sliding scale from 0% if the property has been held for more than 10 years to 100% if held less than 2 years or sold om assignment.
For example:
0% if held for more than 10 years
5% if held from 8-10 years
25% if held for 6-8 years
50% if held for 4-6 years
75% if held for 2-4 years
100% if held for less than 2 years.
The program should be administered federally but the proceed should be distributed in some proportions between the federal, provincial and municipal governments where the property is located.
And based on the information collected and administered create a public service / site providing free access for the past sales data (similar to Zillow)

3. This is perhaps outright rejection but check out how Germany is able to provide a high quality and level of public services by using only 4.6 million public servants for a population of 81 if not now 82 million residents and here in Canada we need 3.6 million public servants for a population of only 35 millions.
Both Canada and Germany share the same structure of the public service – federal, provincial and municipal.

4. Perhaps another non-starter – reform the public service pensions from defined benefits to defined contribution.

#289 Kick Him OUT! on 01.07.16 at 5:19 pm

Garth, I call for a banning of The American from your blog. He has no business here and is extremely divisive. He provides nothing of value, but for making fools of us. Allowing him to continually needle Canadians is egregious on your part. You would not stand for it if a Canadian behaved the same. You give preferential treatment for him only because he agrees with your points. You are anything but neutral. You are a traitor in your submission to his critical words of our home.

Be a brave little beaver. You can take it. — Garth

#290 Estrella on 01.07.16 at 5:19 pm

Waiting patiently for tonight’s words of wisdom from the great one. Hopefully for some of his calm advice during these turbulent times. Will China Be the harbinger to throw the rest of the world to the dog’s ?

I know others are drinking the nice red juicy drink, had to shake my head at this beauty of an article that says GTA is not a bubble, and not in a recession.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/5-reasons-toronto-house-prices-won-t-crash-in-2016-1.3393299

#291 For those about to flop... on 01.07.16 at 5:21 pm

Wow! #284 had a good audition for the next Franks red hot sauce commercial.A little bit of extra pepper on that one…

M41BC

#292 Burnaby Guy on 01.07.16 at 5:23 pm

To 219 pbrasseur:

Your point totally doesn’t make sense because I can say the same thing if and when RE comes down – So what if true? Those PAINS will never materialize for 99% of the population.
Doesn’t matter how long it takes to realize it, most of this LOSS is fictitious.

#293 Milla on 01.07.16 at 5:24 pm

I understand that in Van and Toronto sellers can ask any crazy money they want. What I do not understand why people with 50K could be approved for million mortgage? Unless this is a fraud. And how to pay such mortgage, taxes and utilities out of 50K ? Unless full income is not reported to revenue. Sounds as corruption to me.

#294 Godth on 01.07.16 at 5:28 pm

#284 The American on 01.07.16 at 4:37 pm

Cock-a-doodle-doo!

Donald Trump is America
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/12/11/donald-trump-is-america/

BTW, you’re support for the LGBT crowd was just great! Are you transsexual?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sO-msplukrw

#295 conan on 01.07.16 at 5:37 pm

When are you guys thinking of buying into this market? I was thinking at the end of the current sell off.

Soros saying its 2008 again,,,,,,, thoughts?

#296 Vundo on 01.07.16 at 5:40 pm

#289 laughing con: an entire economy based on HAM. Brilliant! Maybe we can use some public funds to subsidise a unicorn rodeo in St. John’s while we are at it.

#297 espressobob on 01.07.16 at 5:57 pm

Stay focused. This old dude has the right idea.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfknQvVkDUU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlhT07G8zGs

Some wise words from someone with decades of experience.

#298 Suede on 01.07.16 at 11:42 pm

You blog dogs wanting to invest in oil.

Don’t catch the falling knife.

Saudi Aramco wants to IPO. This can be the potentially biggest country in the world. Bigger than Apple.

Even at $10 oil.

Now why would the Saudi’s want to cash out a % of this baby…

hmmmm

#299 Suede on 01.07.16 at 11:43 pm

biggest company i mean

i had two Malbec’s for dinner. sue me

#300 Keith on 01.08.16 at 12:47 pm

“Blaming anyone for the past is a mug’s game. I’m worried about the future impact of present policies. Stop being an ideologue. Bad thinking.” — Garth

You were an MP in a government that brought us this mess and apparently I’m the ideologue?

You seem to forget that old maxim about those who forget the lessons of history….and such. We are where we are, because the last government was anything but economically conservative, but defended as such by lots of “useful idiots”. These “present policies”, are entirely a framework put in by the Harper regime, unless I missed the memo about the Trudeau government changing much in the last 3 months.

The only one I know of is the rollback of TFSA limits. Something which doesn’t impact something like 95% of Canadians, a policy which is actually conservative (disavowing revenue leakage), when the government is running deficits, something those Conservatives didn’t tell the public about prior to the election….

I honestly wish we had smarter, more urbane conservatives, like say those they had in the UK. Instead, we get near-redneck, tea-party esque quasi-Republicans. It’s almost enough to make me think of Mulroney fondly….

#301 Observer on 01.08.16 at 12:54 pm

Strong Dec jobs report (US)

#302 JimH on 01.08.16 at 2:27 pm

#284 The American on 01.07.16 at 4:37 pm

Yes, the Deagle.com website is a doozy!

It seems they pull numbers from some place where the sun never shines.

A great example: they seem to predict that in the near future, the population of the USA will be reduced to 69 million; but maybe they mean that the population will ‘only’ be reduced by 69 million??? Very unclear.

Metabunk.org is a great place to get other viewpoints on some of the nonsense and conspiracy theories circulating out there.

https://www.metabunk.org/search/6915129/?q=Deagle.com&o=relevance

#303 JimH on 01.08.16 at 2:30 pm

#302 Observer on 01.08.16 at 12:54 pm
“Strong Dec jobs report (US)”
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True.

I would like to see hourly wages going up along with those numbers, however!

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/calendar