Flaccid

EARUP modified

“I work at Canadian Tire,” she posted on a Toronto-area Facebook page, “and on Monday we are getting 20,000 price changes. It’s because of the falling dollar.. not worth a thing anymore.”

For the record, our currency lost another half cent yesterday, and is solidly in the 71-cent range. The dollar fell 16% against the American greenback last year and has given up almost a third of its value in the past five. It now sits just 14%, or ten cents, above its record low, achieved in 2002.

But this isn’t about the dollar. Neither you nor I can do anything about it – other than ensuring a US$ component to your investment portfolio (I’ve long suggested 20%), and that you’re prepared for the fallout that may be coming your way. Like twenty thousand price increases at the local Canadian Tire store. Or six-dollar cauliflower. Or $5.99 for half pint of blueberries. Or a heart-crushing 25% increase in the price of a Harley.

Sure, the big news as this week began was the stock market, not the price of batteries. But what equity prices do is a lot less consequential to most people’s lives. History shows that whatever markets do on the first trading day is no predictor of the year itself. (However, 72% of the time, the year as a whole ends up taking its cue from January results.)

The thing about stocks, bonds, preferreds, funds and other liquid assets is that they fluctuate dramatically over the course of twelve months. Worrying about one day’s trades, or a week’s losses, or even a month-long correction, is pointless. Unless you’re an stones-of-steel day-trader, who cares? Build a balanced and globally-diversified portfolio, then ignore it. When you need the money years later to retire or buy a Hooters franchise, it’ll be there. Worrying about another 2008, or 1987 or 1932 is a waste – because it ain’t coming.

What’s far more likely, and worthy of sweating about, is a personal finance crisis. The slumping dollar and bloating consumer prices is a part of that. As oil and commodity prices stay weak and the economy slides, the loonie will probably lose more altitude. This comes at a bad time, when household debt’s hit a fresh record and people have been loading up on new mortgages. Carrying that debt is costly and the savings rate has cratered. So, when lettuce costs three bucks, people spend less because they have less. It hurts everyone.

Meanwhile, America ended the era of cheap money on December 16th. Inevitably (even if the Bank of Canada holds rates steady or cuts again), this will filter through into higher five-year mortgage rates. Additionally, if the loonie does freefall, you can count on the central bank eventually supporting it with higher interest rates across the board.

But that’s conjecture. Here are some facts.

We have a mama of an oil problem and the Socialist Republik of Albertistan is pooched. We also have a manufacturing mess (in Ontariowe). The output from Canada’s factories has shrunk for the fifth consecutive month. In fact, the numbers suck – at a record low – showing 2015 ended on a weak note, after spending six months in recession. The entire sector is, officially, in contraction.

Remember what I told you about oil creep? Well, there ya go. All that pipe and wire, those electronic controls, fittings, software and other valuables the nation’s hungriest sector (oil sands) voraciously consumed are now unneeded. Along with the people making them. In the latest period of measurement, which was October, output, employment and orders all shriveled. The reason? “Subdued business confidence as resulting in lower spending levels and delays to new projects.”

Of course Canada is not alone. Manufacturing has contracted in the US (due mostly to an inflated dollar), in China (which triggered the emotional selloff Monday) and also in Britain – but it grew robustly in Europe. The difference with us, however, is that idle factories are but one element of a toxic mix of misery. Unlike the States we have declining employment (theirs is growing), we’re massively whacked by commodity prices (they benefit), we have mushrooming debt (US borrowing is lower), our buck is flaccid (theirs is not), we elected a tax-and-spend government (their deficit is falling) and a beater house in Toronto or Vancouver now costs a million bucks (the median house price in America is $219,600).

If the forecasters are correct, 2016 will be the second consecutive year of Canadian economic growth in the 1% range. This is only the third time it’s happened in the last 60 years. Despite what it’ll do to the dollar, there’s now a 40% chance the Bank of Canada will reduce its rate by half – a truly desperate move.

These things, not what the Dow or the Nikkei did yesterday, are what frosty little beavers should keep their eyes on. This is why Calgary matters – it’s a harbinger. So when 7,000 fewer houses find buyers in a single year (a 26% plunge), it is meaningful. This is no time to be leveraged up to your pits, to have all of your net worth sitting in a single asset, to have a portfolio drenched in maple or – in a land where the top marginal rate is now 54% – not to be serious about tax avoidance.

I’d also be hoarding Canadian Tire money. You never know.

238 comments ↓

#1 NoName on 01.04.16 at 6:33 pm

Pay them to little no initiative. Pay them too much they think that they can wakl on a water…

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.04.16 at 6:36 pm

Sooooo, whats sort of “viagra” does a flaccid economy require?

#3 For those about to flop... on 01.04.16 at 6:39 pm

Not to sure why but I’ve suddenly got a craving for some
Chinese for dinner…

#4 Brian Ripley on 01.04.16 at 6:44 pm

“…the Socialist Republik of Albertistan…” Garth

I have the December data up on my Calgary Housing chart:
http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

The bulls are so far deftly juggling knives. (average prices actually ticked up!)

Res-Listings down 56% from JUN 2010 high
Res-Sales down 68% from MAY 2014 high
Current Monthly Absorption Rate = 19%
Current Months of Inventory = 5

Calgary SF Detached Price
Down 7.0% from SEP 2014 peak

Calgary Town-House Price
Down 9.7% from FEB 2014 peak
T-Houses are priced at 73% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 1.4 Townhouses

Calgary Condo Price
Down 13.5% from JUN 2014 peak
Condos are priced at 57% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 1.8 Condos

#5 Bob on 01.04.16 at 6:44 pm

Millennials, your salty tears will taste delicious on my popcorn as I watch the unfolding show…MUAHAHAHAHAHAAAAA!

#6 espressobob on 01.04.16 at 6:45 pm

Mutual funds versus ETFs. For DIY investors all the more important in understanding what exactly one is invested in and why?

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nav.asp

Redemption risk can be a real bitch for those in ‘open or closed ended funds’.

Broad based ETFs trade dead close to their NAV. Global rules!

#7 Godth on 01.04.16 at 6:45 pm

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.04.16 at 6:36 pm

Another planet or two (with lots of easy access oil) cause this planet is pooched:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qX9uvyF58U0

#8 John on 01.04.16 at 6:47 pm

Canadian tire money is going digital.

#9 TurnerNation on 01.04.16 at 6:48 pm

Today we all are Neconites

#StandwithNeconites

Batman.

#10 Get back Loretta on 01.04.16 at 6:49 pm

Hoarding Canadian Tire money I can do. And that whack of 10 cent bills looks mighty impressive.

#11 Nanaimo Bar on 01.04.16 at 6:51 pm

It will be only getting worse for Canada because here comes the Hawks.

Loretta Mester, a voting member of the US Federal Reserve FOMC believes that a stronger growth outlook may see US interest rates raise more sharply higher in 2016.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/this-fed-official-believes-us-interest-rates-may-be-significantly-higher-by-the-end-of-2016-2016-1

#12 Dean on 01.04.16 at 6:53 pm

And my Burnaby house assessment went up by 245k for 2015……….things just don’t add up up.

#13 Chris on 01.04.16 at 6:53 pm

There is really nothing positive going on with the Canadian economy. It is now half driven by real estate and half driven by immigration. And the two are linked. The only sector that is of envy is the public sector. Not of envy to any other countty buy to workers in other sectors of the economy. Sunshine list will continue to explode. I wonder if they will cite the falling exchange rate as a reason for strikes. If they do do that, that gives a clue how out of sync they really are with the rest of the workforce. Because people in other sectors are just happy to keep their jobs.

#14 Black and White Cat Black and White Cake on 01.04.16 at 6:53 pm

2016: Fasten your seatbelts. It’s going to be a bumpy night.
For some, the start of a nauseous short-term decline for Canadian, U.S., and global equities. For others, an interesting entry point, or a chance to add to existing holdings, at more attractive prices.
It depends on where you sit it the theatre, and how long you’ve been watching.

#15 Jim Gileo on 01.04.16 at 6:55 pm

Cancel previous entry.

#16 H on 01.04.16 at 6:55 pm

US stock market–what can we say.

Market breadth last 6 months-horrific. 10 companies pull 90% of the gains. Netflix is 740time forward PE. Sure

Share buy backs? A trillion? No effect. Sure. We will see. Cheap money is over.

High yield debt market ok? We shall see.

Garth, you play one side of an argument well. But unlike your well balanced portfolio you profess your observations on what going on south of the boarder is now.

How has that ISM today. Or the 10% plunge in homes sales last month.

#17 T.S. on 01.04.16 at 6:56 pm

When the US was fading in 2008, Garth said to buy US.

As a young investor, why wouldn’t I bet on an oil recovery? I only need oil to hit $100 a barrel once in the next 30 years to make dough.

Are you telling me that dollar cost averaging on Canadian resources isn’t a smart move Turner?

#18 Jimmy on 01.04.16 at 6:57 pm

Virginia is For Lovers.

#19 Serenity Now on 01.04.16 at 6:57 pm

Lots of brand new duplexes for rent in Calgary right now that developers can’t sell. One is going for $1800/month, which works out to basically the interest portion of the mortgage. The place is also listed on MLS, trying to sell it for $720k… Lol, good luck, and even more luck to the guys trying to get $900k for almost the same thing nearby. The people who were buying those were the same guys who got laid off. Starting to see some signs of cracking in Calgary. Just asked our landlord for a rent decrease, easy couple hundred dollars a month in our pocket again, couldn’t put up much of a fight with the current state of the rental market in town.

https://www.rentfaster.ca/calgary-house-for-rent/queensland/gorgeous-home-132187

#20 Darryl on 01.04.16 at 6:58 pm

Great pic Garth
if I pulled up behind this car I’d probably laugh so hard I’d get into an accident .

#21 billybill on 01.04.16 at 6:59 pm

i can’t imagine what the outcome of this experiment will be…we’re years behind the states in a great deleveraging…even though we are in a bad way the us middle has been suffering since 2008…they are still suffering 7 years later…i’m very worried about the future…when the head of the central bank talks about negative rates…wow where to hide

#22 zedgt87 on 01.04.16 at 7:00 pm

“Worrying about another 2008, or 1987 or 1932 is a waste – because it ain’t coming.”

Pure speculation.

Please tell me what else your crystal ball sees?

“Meanwhile, America ended the era of cheap money on December 16th”

Lol no. Money is still very very cheap. Its just less cheap.

#23 Doug t on 01.04.16 at 7:02 pm

The best spark for an economy is war – just ask our neighbours

#24 IKnow on 01.04.16 at 7:02 pm

Hope for Canadians!!

Hong Kong real estates “index” Taikoo Shing cityplaza selling price is now back to 2014 level, 19% cut from peak.

“Cheap” low level 583 sqrt 2 bedroom changed hand for “just” $7M hkd, which is about $1.3M Cad, 19% cut to price from the insane 2015 peak value.

Don’t celebrate in vancouver yet, without a couple big tsunami price here not going to shrink.
But considered good news nonetheless.

#25 Hotdogs from Heaven on 01.04.16 at 7:08 pm

I’m disappointed Garth. Mention of a flaccid economy, but with no follow up pick of Miss Colombia or Miss Philippines as the possible cure.

#26 Hotdogs from Heaven on 01.04.16 at 7:09 pm

Oh, and Canadian Tire money still rocks!

#27 Alberta Blue Blood on 01.04.16 at 7:09 pm

Comrade Natasha reporting from the Western Front:

We dazzle-razzled them with fancy words and they have no idea that a ‘carbon-competitive’ is code for ‘provincial sales tax’.

Good thing we’re flaccid because the screwing over is almost completed.

#28 Mike on 01.04.16 at 7:10 pm

Justine will spend and spend; and everything will be fine:)

#29 For those about to flop... on 01.04.16 at 7:10 pm

. History shows that whatever markets do on the first trading day is no predictor of the year itself. (However, 72% of the time, the year as a whole ends up taking its cue from January results.)-Garth

///////////////////////////////////////////
Of all the facts and figures this one got my attention the most as an investment hack.
If you get off to a good start the rest is gravy most of the time.

M41BC

#30 Reginald O'Reilly on 01.04.16 at 7:11 pm

0.7177! Sweet!

I live in the United States, even though I am a Canadian. I spoke with one of my friends over the Christmas break who works in the financial services industry. He stated very confidently that markets are acting very irrationally these days, but that this presents nothing but an opportunity for foreign investors to 1) buy Canadian dollars at these extremely depressed prices; and 2) buy more Canadian real estate.

His argument for the former is that the true value of the Canadian dollar is at least $1.05 U.S., because Canada is clearly a better-run country. His argument for the latter is that everyone in the world should want to buy Canadian homes (especially in Vancouver) almost regardless of price, because there is no better or more beautiful place to live on the entire planet.

I asked him how many times he’s been out of the country. He stated smugly that he had been to Puerto Vallarta or Mazatlan over a half dozen times, and that he’s also been to London and Missoula, Montana. I asked if that qualifies him to state that there is no better place to live on the planet than Vancouver. He didn’t understand my question.

Wow…Canadians are screwed.

#31 Mr Reality on 01.04.16 at 7:12 pm

Its called purchasing power, kiss it goodbye.

Also i read about the unemployed drawing on their RRSP’s to supplement lost wages.

Uh oh

Mr R

#32 Mark on 01.04.16 at 7:14 pm

““Harper has hollowed out our industrial base”

Specifically, how did Harper hollow it out?

Allowing CMHC to run amuck (see yesterday’s post on the numbers) drove up the cost of capital for Canadian businesses that should have been modernizing. As residential mortgages were alchemized into the equivalent of risk-free GoC bonds on account of CMHC writing subprime mortgage insurance against them.

Now, obviously, some of the ~$1T or so that was pushed into residential mortgages would have still gone into residential investment naturally if not for CMHC providing the subprime insurance. But a good chunk would have been invested into, among other things, manufacturing modernization, engineering R&D, etc.

I’ve posted a few times in these comments that its scandalous that Canada has a horrifically high engineering unemployment rate (according to the OSPE, 2/3rds of Canada’s qualified engineers are unemployed/underemployed). Access to capital on competitive terms for investment in R&D and modernization features prominently into the reasons for such a travesty.

How does this relate to Harper? Well he did allow the CMHC to run amuck, although the Liberals originally got the ball moving. Both parties (and incompetent provincial counterparts) have egg on their faces for getting the contemporary economy into the mess it is.

#33 Cassandra on 01.04.16 at 7:14 pm

So other than history, why do you think the Canadian dollar can’t plummet far below the 90s lows? We’re currently screwed six ways sideways between household debt, government finances, commodities, and demographics. Most of these aren’t problems that fix themselves overnight.

As a high income 30-something, I’m strongly considering heading to the exits (hello USA), a few years behind my investment portfolio. The biggest question everyone asks is why I haven’t done it already. (And the answer to that is that money isn’t everything, but at a certain point you just can’t ignore it any more…)

#34 k on 01.04.16 at 7:15 pm

I feel fortunate on paper anyway. Our Palm Springs home we bought 8 years ago with a $106 Canadian dollar That’s 6cents higher than the U.S. Has now gained 30 %. However everything now costs 30% more. That 3 dollar Happy Hour California Chardonnay 8 oz pour is now $4.50 Cdn. Still way cheaper than in The Great White North. Bumpy ride ahead ! Debt free!

#35 Why Why Jay on 01.04.16 at 7:20 pm

So how will a rate cut help the economy? It’ll kill the CAD, that’s for sure, but the CAD is low enough from an exports perspective (in my opinion, having worked at a company that produced products destined for the US market). The increased cost of imported goods is going to kill retail spending.

There’s one benefit I can think of: It’ll help the tech sector. There are already US companies outsourcing to Canada (I’m familiar with many examples in Vancouver and Victoria). Even with the dollar at parity talent was cheaper up north. Now Canadian devs are pennies on the dollar. Put some tax incentives in place and watch even more US companies flock to Canada to create satellite offices. Cheap labour in the same time zone, that speaks the same language, has nearly identical culture, cheap to meet in person (comparatively)… etc etc. Pretty soon we’ll be stealing tech jobs from Mexico.

Of course the hot one isn’t going to give tax incentives to US corps to set up shop here. He has to pander to people who think we should be tougher on corporations (the entities that create jobs), because BLAME SOMEONE ELSE FOR YOUR PROBLEMS.

I’m bracing T2’s attack on the small business deduction. Gotta squeeze a few more pennies out of all us greedy entrepreneurs.

#36 Scumop on 01.04.16 at 7:22 pm

Gotta wonder – will this slow motion collapse lead to an expansion in liquor store and 7-11 robberies by the newly unemployed?

Could be opportunities in police work, jail construction, security systems, cameras, etc.

#37 Freedom First on 01.04.16 at 7:22 pm

What’s far more likely, and worthy of sweating about, is a personal finance crisis. -Garth

………………………

Yes. And in Alberta, the personal finance crisis is now well underway. Albertans are shellshocked. And I know we are only in the early stages. Over Christmas and New Years, everywhere I went you could cut the fear and stress in the air with a knife. It is easy to feel and see when you aren’t living with either stress or fear of that magnitude.

I don’t ever enjoy seeing that. It is too bad, as many people put themselves in dire circumstances through their own bad decisions, of which there is different varieties. However, the end result is the same. And it is not good.

Most unfortunate that people in Toronto and Vancouver are of the opinion they are different. Because it hasn’t happened to them………………….yet.

#38 Hope & Ruin on 01.04.16 at 7:24 pm

My neighbour is constantly berating Harper and the cons. Talks about how socialism built this country, loves the NDP and Libs, sticking it to the 1%. Big union guy and a boomer.

Next day he is bitching about how high his taxes are and telling me about his tax avoidance strategies. I mean come-on.

#39 Only-inflation-to-reduce-debt-burden on 01.04.16 at 7:26 pm

So suppose you read the article attached and where ever it says New York you add Toronto instead…

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/30/opinion/inequality-and-the-city.html?smid=fb-share&_r=0

Also consider migration into Canada, mainly Toronto.

Also consider that the government knows of this declining employment and so the stimulus in investing and growing cities at least till the jobs start coming back and with a 65 cent dollar we will pull out this just fine…..

Continue to invest in Toronto because if you wont the rest of the world will……. Just saying…..

#40 Frank on 01.04.16 at 7:27 pm

Vancouver real estate inventory is at a almost 10 year low (expect new record prices) and rental vacancy is sub 1%.

I want to move but can’t find a new place anywhere. The city is just chock full.

#41 Brian on 01.04.16 at 7:27 pm

Garth could you please discuss demographics of those currently holed up in their houses, waiting to buy, and immigration? Where is all this demand coming from where houses sell in 4 hours in the big cities.

I just see the VAN and TO markets getting more and more crowded and competitive. Hell I’m ready to sign up for a 900k mortgage because this whole mess is getting ridiculous. If you cant beat them join them.

#42 Trojan House on 01.04.16 at 7:28 pm

Bought a couple of eggs rolls once at a local Chinese establishment for some Crappy Tire money!

#43 Prospective Buyer on 01.04.16 at 7:29 pm

So it looks like 2016 will be another year of growth in the GTA and YVR, after 8 years of growth, on top of a previous 5 years of growth before the brief dip of 2008.

And the tune has now changed – rates will decrease in Canada rather than follow in lock-step the US rate increases as they have done over 90% of the time.

Now the prediction is that the Bank of Canada will likely cut their rate by half. Each previous 0.25% cut goosed the markets by 7-10%, which means real estate could march forward another 15-20% in the next year.

So if you buy now with some equity (not a 5%’er down), are you really going to care if, or when prices start dropping? Technically, a 1% increase or decrease in rates impacts affordability by 10%, but the market reaction varies.

So if, or when depending – on your mindset – prices start to drop, will it be really worth it to wait to only lose 20 or 30% after another run up in prices in 2016 and likely 2017 (based on past precedent of predictions). You will likely come out in a neutral position at worst, and potentially higher at best. As Garth notes, there will not be a crash (even the US averaged a 30% decline in their ‘great crash’).

Its the same as buying an overpriced stock on the way up – as long as you get in before the top, the decline in the prices just eats your ‘paper gains.’

And the demographic tune as also changed. For the last few years, it was the looming 9 million baby boomers who were going to unleash a tsunami of real estate inventory and drown the market.

Now, it’s the millennials that are buying, and who will absorb the inventory. There is apparently no longer any downward demographic pressure on a real estate. Throw in the generous immigration, temporary foreign worker, and refugee system, and any excess inventory gets further eaten up.

I am not seeing any great external factors putting pressure on the market in the coming years. These prices have been unsustainable for years in all parts of the country, and yet despite crushed oil prices, a technical recession, stagnant incomes, and rising US rates, we keep moving onward and upward in prices.

As a prospective buyer with a nice down payment, these are my serious comments.

After being an ardent bear for the longest time, I am looking at the market with a new lense . When you see even farming communities come suburbs like King Township and East Gwillimbury post near 100% gains after 3 or 4 years, the GTA and YVR seem unstoppable.

A world-class example of Kool-Aid drinking. So, buy. Tell us how it works out. — Garth

#44 waiting on the westcoast on 01.04.16 at 7:30 pm

Nothing like having you buttocks touch the water to create some urgency to learn to swim…

Maybe this lady didn’t hear Mark… prices are deflating. Or maybe it’s just the sales mix on the shelf… ;-)

Seriously though – bad omen with the markets tanking today. Good thing wall street is not main street.

I will have our company’s system wide year-end numbers in the next week. Basically 2015 was awesome in all markets except Alberta/Saskatchewan and Perth Australia (basically the commodity zones). Planning on some solid growth again in the US. My new motto is one more year…

#45 Drill Baby Drill on 01.04.16 at 7:33 pm

Dear Pathetic Blog: we in Alberta are already reeling but to now be called by a commie pinko name is beyond torture. “the Socialist Republik of Albertistan” ?? Oh the inhumanity of it all !!

#46 lee on 01.04.16 at 7:35 pm

Ben Meyers of Fortress says Toronto real estate, especially condos, are cheap, cheap, cheap by World standards. Up she goes.

#47 Alex on 01.04.16 at 7:36 pm

I guess you’re not counting NB, maybe the population is too small for your purposes. Our top marginal rate (over 250k) is 58.75 percent.

#48 Victoria Real Estate Update on 01.04.16 at 7:38 pm

I encourage all those who work in the housing industry to read and absorb the important facts that Garth presented today in his post.

Canada’s weakening economy is bad for house prices in all Canadian cities. Today’s temporary record -low rates are acting to mask the problems of Canada’s economy by over-stimulating the housing market, but this will prove to be temporary.

I challenge you to look past today’s temporary record-low rates when discussing home ownership with potential buyers, and to direct clients to Garth’s latest blog posting.

Your clients need to know that Canadian 5 year mortgage rates will begin moving higher almost immediately and this cycle will last for at least 2 years. House prices fall as rates rise. In addition to that, down payments will be higher soon which will also push prices down.

House prices will fall in every Canadian city as Canada’s massive housing bubble deflates. Price corrections in every Canadian city will be much severe than what any realtor, banker or Canadian economist predicts.

#49 saskatoon on 01.04.16 at 7:38 pm

#234 TnT

notice how the unhinged left-wing mind provides responses that are clearly emotional, rather than logical.

it is pure group thought.

reality by consensus.

they are not capable of producing arguments.

all they have are:

1. lies; and,
2. ad hominem

logical fallacies abound.

don’t be tricked.

#50 Jake Spaz on 01.04.16 at 7:39 pm

So, if the low loon isn’t doing anything for the Canadian manufacturing sector as Poloz insisted was the reason he was crushing the currency, why are we still being pushed into starvation and hyper consumer goods inflation. The pain is unnecessary, self inflicted, unproductive, cruel, uneducated and stupid.

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/1/4/Canadas-manufacturing-activity-hits-record-low-in-December-.aspx

#51 Panhead on 01.04.16 at 7:42 pm

From the trenches in 604land …
was at a fruit and veggie stand today and the lady in front of me at the till was questioning why her bill was so high for the few things she was buying. The clerk pointed to her head of cauliflower and said “this is eight dollars.” Glad I filled my freezer this hunting season … although meat is slowly coming down in price … for the moment anyway. Gas never moves though … somebody has that gig sewn up tighter than a bull’s ass in fly season.

#52 Ontario's Left Coast on 01.04.16 at 7:45 pm

#5 Bob on 01.04.16 at 6:44 pm
Millennials, your salty tears will taste delicious on my popcorn as I watch the unfolding show…MUAHAHAHAHAHAAAAA!

Why on earth would anyone want to eat wet popcorn?

#53 james on 01.04.16 at 7:45 pm

#30 Reginald O’Reilly

I think you may have found an exception.

People here in my necks of the woods (Seattle, Silicon Valley) express the odd bit of bafflement about home prices in Canada, particularly Vancouver. It is well known among my coworkers that prices in that city are astronomical, and it is a shock to people in Silicon Valley that Vancouver homes are MORE expensive while salaries are WAY lower.

Many SF or Seattle based engineers and lawyers wouldn’t be able to afford a home in Vancouver, even with the exchange rate.

As an illustration, median income for lawyers in Ontario are about 81k CDN (lower than teachers, who have a pension and 2 months vacation). In Toronto, the last I saw was 206k CDN average (pulled up by senior partners).

Even at 6x income, a lawyer in Toronto is hard pressed to afford a decent single family home. And recall that 206k is $146k in USD, which is the currency used by distributors to by consumer goods sold in Canada. Plus high taxes, Wynne’s new corrupt ‘pension’ contribution, etc.

I haven’t met a single American who thinks that it is a good time to buy in Canada. The reason is that the bubble burst here. People got a taste of what it is like to buy an asset on leverage that subsequently goes down.

My money is looking toward other countries. The USD is up against a lot of currencies, making properties in Colombia and other countries a little cheaper. Plus they have better weather.

#54 White Crock BC on 01.04.16 at 7:45 pm

Four days into 2016 and nothing has changed.

Dollar down another 50 cents and going lower.

Stock market down and going lower.

Oil down and going lower.

On the other hand, Schadenfreude on this pathetic blog is high and climbing.

M58BC

#55 mishuko on 01.04.16 at 7:47 pm

The lynching against ceo’s pay is absolutely brainless. Most of them don’t make much more than 1m a year before bonus and options. I always turn around and ask the lynchers how can you make over 1 billion bucks after taxes? Can you run a company that does that on a quarterly basis? Silly rabbits.

Oh and to spur the economy the government needs to back the fk off and give an unfair competitive advantage to entrepreneurs instead of putting up barriers.

And stop teaching kids calculus and teach them how to file taxes. Brainwashing education system and their no fail policy.

#56 Sebee on 01.04.16 at 7:53 pm

“Or a heart-crushing 25% increase in the price of a Harley.”

Thanks for cheering me up about the CAD Garth. Finally a bright side!

Less of these over weight, useless, 100 year old technology antiques to which idiots strap on straight pipes thinking it makes them “meaner” and drive at 40km/hr emitting 145db of noise through quiet cup de sac hoods full of overvalued houses filled with owners in debt up to their ears who’s only pleasure is to sit in their houses and be annoyed by the guy with a Hog renting a basement in the hood. #HarleysSuck! :-)

And on that note, thanks for not deleting my butt.

#57 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 7:55 pm

Monday night, @Seneca, am I a mad man? Could there be another reason to be here three nights a week? Let the historians figure it out.

Remember UFO disclosure in 2016.

For you Sherly Valentine

https://youtu.be/5jWF0Yaxf2g

#58 JSS on 01.04.16 at 7:58 pm

On a positive front, nearly All Canadian banks expect TSX to jump up this year!

#59 crossbordershopper on 01.04.16 at 8:01 pm

the lineup to the usa will start this year, and accelerate as the dollar goes down, the economy goes down, the best and brightest with the high taxes will simply say, why am i here, not for the weather and friends and family are a plane ride back.
when the 1% are a lousy 265000 people and you have about 65000 of them actually leave, you will see that canada will become a flea market of immigrants. a second hand shop of products from around the world, i see it in scarborough and rexdale, arabic toothpaste, turkish candy, we are not a substitute of the usa, we are going to become a distant relative.
keep your ohip card and wait for your goverment cheque, try the usa, if it fails for you, come back to socialist utopia, if it works out, you stay in america. only the best and brightest have opportunity, everyone else is sick, poor, or cant leave. that is Canada in 2020. a bunch of old, immigrants, poor, sick people waiting for their government cheque.
it is the worst i have seen in many years, no one has any money, worse than 2008, everyone looks at each other and doesnt say anything, they all know we are screwed.

#60 Mark on 01.04.16 at 8:02 pm

“why are we still being pushed into starvation and hyper consumer goods inflation”

Inflation was 1.4% last year YoY, which is actually beneath the BoC’s policy target of 2%. The weakening CAD$ has been overshadowed by severely slowing Canadian demand for goods and services on account of the RE price declines unfolding across Canada for over 2 years.

#61 Quebec is Great on 01.04.16 at 8:10 pm

re #2…
——————————–
A small but informative discussion about Ontario and economic headwinds can be found here.. you may find it interesting.
Knowing that Ontario debt interest is currently about $840 per person annually and rising (as stated by Joe Oliver, I believe) is depressing more than scary … Compound this growing debt with inflationary costs on necessities, overcharging of utilities and significant red tape for small business and you start to get a picture of where we are headed. Disappointed economists wonder why the export business hasn’t fluorished as much as expected. My answer is too many roadblocks to small business in Ontario (and perhaps canada too).. Ontario is not small business friendly.. from banking, utilities (just try dealing with Bell for business – I dare you to experience that pain) right through to a government that does not support entrepreneurs in any meaningful way. My opinion for what its worth – yours will probably differ.

#62 not 1st on 01.04.16 at 8:10 pm

I am dreading the fact that in 11 months time I am going to have to write a long winded post here explaining why the US (and world) went into recession in 2016.

You love fiction, too? — Garth

#63 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 8:11 pm

Need a word that describes a character that has the maturity level of a 15 year old, balls bigger than Chuck Yager, views the world through the eyes of a verial 19 year old male, trapped in a 56 year old broken and a self abused body.

Bet that word has yet to be invented.

#64 OXI in GREECE on 01.04.16 at 8:13 pm

After being an ardent bear for the longest time, I am looking at the market with a new lense . When you see even farming communities come suburbs like King Township and East Gwillimbury post near 100% gains after 3 or 4 years, the GTA and YVR seem unstoppable.

A world-class example of Kool-Aid drinking. So, buy. Tell us how it works out. — Garth
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Dem prices will stop when dem wires stop. And govt has no plans to stop the illegal money laundering of RE.

#65 Bank of Millennial on 01.04.16 at 8:16 pm

#14

That is a great line, i might use it someday.

“It depends on where you sit it the theatre, and how long you’ve been watching.”

#66 OXI in GREECE on 01.04.16 at 8:18 pm

#53 james on 01.04.16 at 7:45 pm
#30 Reginald O’Reilly

I think you may have found an exception.

People here in my necks of the woods (Seattle, Silicon Valley) express the odd bit of bafflement about home prices in Canada, particularly Vancouver. It is well known among my coworkers that prices in that city are astronomical, and it is a shock to people in Silicon Valley that Vancouver homes are MORE expensive while salaries are WAY lower.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

It’s called money laundering. You go to jail for that in the USA unless you are a NY banker of course.

Ignorant comment. 95% of YVR trades are made by locals. — Garth

#67 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 01.04.16 at 8:18 pm

#45 Drill Baby Drill on 01.04.16 at 7:33 pm

Dear Pathetic Blog: we in Alberta are already reeling but to now be called by a commie pinko name is beyond torture. “the Socialist Republik of Albertistan” ?? Oh the inhumanity of it all !!

We are still rat free.. sadly no longer commie free

#68 ponerology on 01.04.16 at 8:18 pm

And now the million dollar question: how low does $CAD need to go before our neighbors to the south decide to scuttle nafta.. or do they even care other than Buffalo, Detroit and to a lesser extent Florida?

@#59: convenient that you leave out Scarborough’s northern neighbor from you post…

#69 Satrunal Forvoten on 01.04.16 at 8:24 pm

BTW..chew on this Al Gore Groupies and blindly ignorant American funded ‘Climate Change Zombies’.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/world/815644/why-the-real-king-kong-became-extinct

Wow….climate change…over hundreds of thousands of years ago…without mankind or carbon. Kinda proves the hypocrisy and the cash grab aspect of a climate change industry as nothing more than bold grab for western tax dollars to be sent to enrich the dictators of the UN’s laziest countries.

Want a reality check….read the Brundtland Commission Report of 1985 where in ‘Climate Change’ was an invented term to distribute wealth under the guise of this phony climate scare regime.

Shocked into conciousness yet> Here’s some more bad news for the believers. You’re being manipulatred by the yanks and others who want Canada out of buisness…for no other reason other than keeping market share for themselves. It proves that the greenest barking seals..the natives and Tides Zombies are all just dupes who have willing used our court system to keep Canada poor, schools, unbuilt, roads potholed and created the pathway from scared to stupid and allowing flakes to govern as is the case in a quickly sinking working populace in once prosperous provinces like Ontario and Alberta.

http://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/2014/07/vivian-krause-great-green-trade-barrier/

There is no ‘climate change’ only your willingness to be duped into believing the propaganda of big oil companies to make you believe that Canada’s big oil is bad oil while theirs is ‘good’….making you and idiot for believing..

#70 Meet and greet on 01.04.16 at 8:26 pm

Oh, a millennial…

Meet the 29-year-old running $7 billion for wealthy clients

http://www.businessinsider.com/minesh-bhatt-ubs-banker-on-forbes-30-under-30-2016-1

#71 vic guy on 01.04.16 at 8:26 pm

The days of perpetual growth are over, with the aging boomer population the days of many funerals have come.
Long gone are the days of 14% returns for throwing money at some stock.
Labor = money which is then spent in a healthy sustainable economy…not some corp shifting numbers to profit a minority.
I could live just fine without Canadian Tire, in fact I could careless if they go titters tomorrow.
I hate share holders and hope they all eat crow, I just want to pay for the service not the FAT these share holders bring to my monthly bill.

#72 Nemesis on 01.04.16 at 8:27 pm

“Or a heart-crushing 25% increase in the price of a Harley.” – HonGT

#FunnyYouShouldSayThat,Or… #RupeeForYourThoughts?…

#RoyalEnfieldContinentalGT

https://youtu.be/2QKTBdigs5M

#HarleyDavidson750Street

https://youtu.be/hmFNyE4-uC4

#LovinglyHandCrafted… #ByTheSameVellyNicePeoples… #WhoBroughtYou…

https://youtu.be/AoWdk9CB-mU

#73 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 8:34 pm

#67 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 01.04.16 at 8:18 pm
#45 Drill Baby Drill on 01.04.16 at 7:33 pm

Dear Pathetic Blog: we in Alberta are already reeling but to now be called by a commie pinko name is beyond torture. “the Socialist Republik of Albertistan” ?? Oh the inhumanity of it all !!

We are still rat free.. sadly no longer commie free

I see massive revenge coming from a generation of young men who for what ever reason, perhaps unwilling to be feminized, or just didn’t give a shit about an obdiance certificate ended up in the last refuge for real men.

The oil sands…once they figure out T2 and the insane climate change phycopaths did this to them on purpose.

Whats left for them, a lecture from teacher and school master Wynne and Jastina, you should have persued higher education. Suffer the consequences..

Ya, they are just going to go quietly into the corner and cry….

Butts desiples biggest Morons god ever created.

Butts you figure out what country will be best suited to exhile too?

#74 Sherly disclosure 2016 on 01.04.16 at 8:36 pm

Smoking Man… everybody knows the boat is leaking and Sherly Valentine is a mushroom man, sent by the universe as part of your personalized training in this life, before you reincarnate with more fluid gender views.

#75 The real Kip on 01.04.16 at 8:38 pm

It took seven minutes for markets in China to fall 2%. The circuit breaker traders were racing to beat were only set up a year ago.

Traders will be in full sell mode when and if they open unrestricted trading in China. Here we go again!

The Chinese market is vastly more volatile than those in NA. But it did deliver a nice return in 2015, while you had zero exposure. — Garth

#76 Shirley Valentine on 01.04.16 at 8:39 pm

#57 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 7:55 pm

Monday night, @Seneca, am I a mad man? Could there be another reason to be here three nights a week? Let the historians figure it out.

Remember UFO disclosure in 2016.

For you Sherly Valentine

https://youtu.be/5jWF0Yaxf2g

x0x0x0x

SMOKEY MAN! Get that spaceship and plasma nozzle fueled up and get me to Seneca!

Now this fear of lesbians you have… I hear ya… hard to understand in the presence of the kavorka of a smoking man…….

This sword wielding mrs smokey man is of greater concern

#77 Keith in Calgary on 01.04.16 at 8:44 pm

“Worrying about another 2008, or 1987 or 1932 is a waste – because it ain’t coming.”

———————

This year Brasil’s depression will be the worst since 1901………so, don’t ever say something won’t happen again, because that is exactly when it does.

#78 Shirley Valentine on 01.04.16 at 8:45 pm

#63 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 8:11 pm

Need a word that describes a character that has the maturity level of a 15 year old, balls bigger than Chuck Yager, views the world through the eyes of a verial 19 year old male, trapped in a 56 year old broken and a self abused body.

Bet that word has yet to be invented.
xoxoxoxox

The self abuse issue can be solved SMOKEY MAN!

Urban dictionary clearly needs a definition of a nectonite! Studly beast of an alien man with other worldly predictive powers.

#79 CREIT on 01.04.16 at 8:48 pm

This is the second time in 12 months my tenants in Edmonton, AB lost their Job.

I had to reduce their rent by 30%….

Rough times a head..

That means your real estate also devalued. — Gsrth

#80 Linda on 01.04.16 at 8:54 pm

#5 Bob – now Bob, was that nice? Don’t be mean to the Millennials who are about to learn that what goes up must come down.

Millennials unite! If Bob hassles you, make sure you hork a big goober into his freshly salted by your tears popcorn:)

#81 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 8:55 pm

#70 Meet and greet on 01.04.16 at 8:26 pm
Oh, a millennial…

Meet the 29-year-old running $7 billion for wealthy clients

http://www.businessinsider.com/minesh-bhatt-ubs-banker-on-forbes-30-under-30-2016-1

Ha, how many trips to Starbucks, how many asses did he need to kiss to get ready for that position.

One is to many in my books..

Lots like him come to the comments section everyday to see what this drunk calls.

Its all out there free to on the web, hell even here, look for my brilliance between episodes drunken insanity.

Making easy money has never been so easy with the Information on world wide web..

Just got to know where to find it, and how to bet it..

And when you finally figure it out.

Sadly from JK to grade 12….

Risk is taboo.

Now someone get me a tall blond.. I don’t drink lotti.

#82 yeng ying on 01.04.16 at 8:57 pm

#79 CREIT on 01.04.16 at 8:48 pm

This is the second time in 12 months my tenants in Edmonton, AB lost their Job.

I had to reduce their rent by 30%….

Rough times a head..

That means your real estate also devalued. — Gsrth

=========

Safe to predict, they won’t be in the market for ETFs.

This means your portfolio also…

Because neither bubbles, nor crashes come isolated.

You have much to learn. Stick around. — Garth

#83 joblo on 01.04.16 at 8:57 pm

#237 Godth on 01.04.16 at 6:57 pm

Godth, I’m still laughing!

#84 vic guy on 01.04.16 at 8:58 pm

#74 Keith in Calgary

Since 07 the US has printed more money than the 250 years prior to 07.
They have exhausted all tools to monetize their debt.
The rest of the world has caught on.
Never bet against the States? Lol ;)

#85 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 9:07 pm

#74 Sherly disclosure 2016 on 01.04.16 at 8:36 pm
Smoking Man… everybody knows the boat is leaking and Sherly Valentine is a mushroom man, sent by the universe as part of your personalized training in this life, before you reincarnate with more fluid gender views.

Could care less what Sherly is, I’ll try anything once, we only have one life.

Its all about our experience and how to share it before we turn to maggot food..

Thats all that counts in my books…damn I mean book.

Shit I better finish it..running out of time…

#86 like money, gold, guns, dogs and bitches on 01.04.16 at 9:07 pm

#84 vic guy on 01.04.16 at 8:58 pm

#74 Keith in Calgary

Since 07 the US has printed more money than the 250 years prior to 07.
They have exhausted all tools to monetize their debt.
The rest of the world has caught on.
Never bet against the States? Lol ;)

—-

Never. US has world #1 gold hoarding, more that the next nine GLD hoarders loot combined.

#87 pwn3d on 01.04.16 at 9:13 pm

#53 james on 01.04.16 at 7:45 pm

As an illustration, median income for lawyers in Ontario are about 81k CDN (lower than teachers, who have a pension and 2 months vacation).
—————
2+ months in the summer, march break, 2 weeks at Christmas… teachers actually get 3 months vacation.

pretty good deal, give it a year or two and most tenured teachers will be on the sunshine list for 9 months work, not including pension or banked sick leave.

#88 NoName on 01.04.16 at 9:16 pm

@ billy bob on 5

carful with those popcorns, you might get, indigestion.

#89 Kreditanstalt on 01.04.16 at 9:17 pm

Why buy $US stuff now, at an all-time high – an unearned one at that?

Now IS the time for physical gold. Don’t be an “investor”: be a speculator. And watch what happens VERY soon.

And stay ahead of the buy-high sell-low herd.

Hey, great strategy for the last four years! — Garth

#90 prairie person on 01.04.16 at 9:21 pm

What do people make of this? This appeared on Victoria Meetups. RE agents looking for customers. A sale is as good as a buy re commission. But does this indicate a slowing market?

Victoria Real Estate
27 Tips to SELL your HOME FAST and for TOP DOLLAR

#91 For those about to flop... on 01.04.16 at 9:23 pm

#78 Shirley Valentine on 01.04.16 at 8:45 pm
#63 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 8:11 pm

Need a word that describes a character that has the maturity level of a 15 year old, balls bigger than Chuck Yager, views the world through the eyes of a verial 19 year old male, trapped in a 56 year old broken and a self abused body.

Bet that word has yet to be invented.
xoxoxoxox

The self abuse issue can be solved SMOKEY MAN!

Urban dictionary clearly needs a definition of a nectonite! Studly beast of an alien man with other worldly predictive powers.

//////////////////////////////////
I come here to learn and to have a laugh .
Man on man action ,not so much…

M41BC

#92 lambo on 01.04.16 at 9:23 pm

beater house in Toronto or Vancouver now costs a million bucks (the median house price in America is $219,600).”

Whats the median for all of canada? Keep the comparison the same please.

Here you go. — Garth

#93 Daisy Mae on 01.04.16 at 9:23 pm

“….we elected a tax-and-spend government …”

****************

Let’s reserve judgement. The ‘cons’ did far more damage to our country and economy — responsible for the situation we find ourselves in today.

#94 vic guy on 01.04.16 at 9:29 pm

#86 like money, gold, guns, dogs and bitches on

Never. US has world #1 gold hoarding, more that the next nine GLD hoarders loot combined.

Fair enough, unfortunately personal “under the mattress” stacks don’t count on the worlds stage.

#95 3 months vacation on 01.04.16 at 9:29 pm

#87 pwn3d on 01.04.16 at 9:13 pm

#53 james on 01.04.16 at 7:45 pm

As an illustration, median income for lawyers in Ontario are about 81k CDN (lower than teachers, who have a pension and 2 months vacation).
—————
2+ months in the summer, march break, 2 weeks at Christmas… teachers actually get 3 months vacation.

pretty good deal, give it a year or two and most tenured teachers will be on the sunshine list for 9 months work, not including pension or banked sick leave.

==========

I wonder how long would you last in a classroom…
1 day? 3?

I would not do it for 3 months vacation.

#96 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 01.04.16 at 9:31 pm

For Americans, all assets are down in US $ terms except their real estate. World GDP was also down when measured in US$ terms.

I agree that physical gold is insurance and so should not make up more than 5% of the portfolio.

The Chinese market is a joke with heavy state ownership and the imposition of a six-month ban on major shareholders (over 5%) from selling positions.

With that six-month moratorium ending this coming Friday, investors were spooked that there could be an avalanche of pent-up selling.

#43 Prospective Buyer

“After being an ardent bear for the longest time, I am looking at the market with a new lense.” If only he had finished with…”Its different this time…”

At some point there will be a final the Greatest Fool

#97 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 9:32 pm

DELETED

#98 Walter Safety on 01.04.16 at 9:34 pm

Just finished a 16 day road trip from Vegas to LA and back.
Really hard to miss the wealth built from real estate especially in the first 3 or 4 blocks from the ocean even if all you ever owned was residential. Brick and mortar love everywhere.
Watched some 50’s 60,s surfer film too. No feminized guys then.If you ever saw the Bobby Hull working on the farm photo you know what I mean .
Anyway wealth built on real estate is self evident and has worked for millennia .

What you saw were the houses of rich people, who probably got that way through business, not bricks, like most of the wealthy. — Garth

#99 prairie person on 01.04.16 at 9:45 pm

Just saw t his on Facebook. The real estate industries story.

8,281 property sales through the Multiple Listings Service (MLS) eclipsed 2014’s 6,698 by over 19%, according to the Victoria Real-Estate Board. The latter, however, does not include the sale of unlisted properties such as the majority of pre-sale condos, townhomes and single-family-dwellings. Estimates for unlisted sales vary although industry insiders believe 500 transactions is a reasonable estimate.

Out of the 8,281 MLS sales for the year, 326 went to Lower Mainland buyers, a big jump from the previous year’s total of 205. The sudden increase is attributed to residents cashing in on Vancouver’s frenzied market and resettling in the affordable (by comparison) capital region. Buyers from Alberta’s two largest cities represented a total of 307 sales, lead by Calgary with 206 and Edmonton with 101. Ottawa was the next runner-up with 37 sales for the year. Although the board does not maintain precise statistics on foreign buyers, analysts suggest a figure of 4-to-5% represents foreign real-estate purchases in the region. Out-of-town buyers hailing from across Canada represent between 10 and 15%, bringing the total of non-local purchases to upwards of 20%.

The sheer monetary volume of real-estate transactions was a record breaker with sales in excess of $4.2 billion dollars, eclipsing the previous record set in 2007 of $4.146 billion. Meanwhile the average single-family-dwelling price for the year was in the $650,000 range while the median was $565,000. Average prices for single-family-dwellings increased by 6% while condos saw a marginal rise of just over 0.5%. Townhomes remained relatively stable with an increase just over 1% for the year. Inventory remained low throughout 2015 with a December total of just 2,517 active listings, a far cry from the already low 3,210 of 2014.

#100 Rob on 01.04.16 at 9:45 pm

Just checked the yield curve for US bonds. Oh, wait a minute, it’s not curved.

The 2 – 10 year bond yield difference is a scant 119 basis points. The difference between the 2 year and 30 year bond is a ridiculous 193 basis points. Nothing says a recession is on the way more than a flattening yield curve.

The Atlanta FED today revised their 4th quarter GDP forecast to .7% after the manufacturing data was released.

The US labour participation rate is at record lows. The BLS jobs stats have to be taken with a grain of salt. You lose your full time job, and go out and get two part time jobs to try and make ends meet…and that is recorded as one new job that has been created. When you look deeper into the monthly reports that the BLS publishes rather than just absorbing the number, you quickly see that it is low paying service sector type jobs that are being created.

Recovery? Haha

Maybe you should worry about us. — Garth

#101 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 9:46 pm

#91 For those about to flop… on 01.04.16 at 9:23 pm
#78 Shirley Valentine on 01.04.16 at 8:45 pm
#63 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 8:11 pm

Need a word that describes a character that has the maturity level of a 15 year old, balls bigger than Chuck Yager, views the world through the eyes of a verial 19 year old male, trapped in a 56 year old broken and a self abused body.

Bet that word has yet to be invented.
xoxoxoxox

The self abuse issue can be solved SMOKEY MAN!

Urban dictionary clearly needs a definition of a nectonite! Studly beast of an alien man with other worldly predictive powers.

//////////////////////////////////
I come here to learn and to have a laugh .
Man on man action ,not so much…

M41BC
……

God damn homo phobs.

#102 Like money gold dogs bitches on 01.04.16 at 9:47 pm

They may not have counted “under the mattress”

http://www.businessinsider.com/countries-with-largest-gold-reserves-2015-8

#103 Sherly disclosure 2016 on 01.04.16 at 9:55 pm

And you have not tried it yet?
What were you waiting for?

#104 For those about to flop... on 01.04.16 at 9:56 pm

#99 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 9:46 pm
#91 For those about to flop… on 01.04.16 at 9:23 pm
#78 Shirley Valentine on 01.04.16 at 8:45 pm
#63 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 8:11 pm

Need a word that describes a character that has the maturity level of a 15 year old, balls bigger than Chuck Yager, views the world through the eyes of a verial 19 year old male, trapped in a 56 year old broken and a self abused body.

Bet that word has yet to be invented.
xoxoxoxox

The self abuse issue can be solved SMOKEY MAN!

Urban dictionary clearly needs a definition of a nectonite! Studly beast of an alien man with other worldly predictive powers.

//////////////////////////////////
I come here to learn and to have a laugh .
Man on man action ,not so much…

M41BC
……

God damn homo phobs.

#105 Sheane Wallace on 01.04.16 at 9:56 pm

Mark: inflation of 1.4 % with CAD down 16 %? Sure.
Absolutely, In fact there is deflation… in your world.

In mine there is inflation for everything expect gas (for now), specially food and clothes.

But hey, you can absolutely believe in Poloz. The guy really scares me as his idiocy seems unlimited and I will NOT hold a single CAD no matter any potential of growth while he is the helm of BOC EVER! Or invest single dollar in bonds.

#106 Sheane Wallace on 01.04.16 at 9:59 pm

If indeed US increases rates ny 1 % in the next 1.5 year while the idiot at BOC is thinking of reducing it I see the CAD potentially in the 50-es. For now. Max 0.64, if it unfolds that way.

#107 Rob on 01.04.16 at 10:02 pm

Maybe you should worry about us. — Garth

I am…..when the US economy blows……ours will really suck.

It didn’t seem that long ago that some Alberta Timmies locations couldn’t remain open 24 hours as there was no one willing to take the “low paying” jobs.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-04/some-canadians-may-eat-themselves-death-unless-oil-prices-rise-doctor-warns

#108 Leo Trollstoy on 01.04.16 at 10:05 pm

#4 Brian Ripley on 01.04.16 at 6:44 pm

Brian, you are the shiznit. That’s all I gotta say.

#109 hope & ruin on 01.04.16 at 10:06 pm

#78 Shirley Valentine on 01.04.16 at 8:45 pm
#63 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 8:11 pm

Urban dictionary clearly needs a definition of a nectonite! Studly beast of an alien man with other worldly predictive powers.
_________________________________________

smoking man. you are so weird. must be on the same meds as floppy.

Recommended Blog Dosage: 1 hr/day max

exceeding recommended dosage may cause: excessive commenting, split-personalities combined with gender dysphoria, grandeur, delusions about aliens and the direction of house prices in YVR. Other symptoms include excessive use of the phrase “gets banned from being stated in all provinces and territories.”

#110 kat wynnie ont PM on 01.04.16 at 10:07 pm

#100 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 9:46 pm

#91 For those about to flop… on 01.04.16 at 9:23 pm
#78 Shirley Valentine on 01.04.16 at 8:45 pm
#63 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 8:11 pm

Need a word that describes a character that has the maturity level of a 15 year old, balls bigger than Chuck Yager, views the world through the eyes of a verial 19 year old male, trapped in a 56 year old broken and a self abused body.

Bet that word has yet to be invented.
xoxoxoxox

The self abuse issue can be solved SMOKEY MAN!

Urban dictionary clearly needs a definition of a nectonite! Studly beast of an alien man with other worldly predictive powers.

//////////////////////////////////
I come here to learn and to have a laugh .

Man on man action ,not so much…
M41BC
……

God damn homo phobs.

You are so studly beast of ontario

#111 For those about to flop... on 01.04.16 at 10:07 pm

Joking Man,the reason I repeated your post is because you said it fair enough.
We have to be tolerant of race ,religion and sexual preference amongst other things.
One point though ….this is Greaterfool not Grinder.

M41BC

#112 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 10:08 pm

DELETED

#113 Sheane Wallace on 01.04.16 at 10:10 pm

As I have stated before, anyone putting any trust in the BOC governor to do the right thing and increase rates is certifiable idiot. Period. Thrusting in Poloz is equivalent to commuting financial suicide. Anyone holding CAD in CDs or saving or checking accounts lost irrecoverably 16 % of the money they had in a single year. How does losing 16 % loss of the value of a house in a single year sound? The horror!
You have seen nothing of Poloz yet, just wait. The guy is very capable.

#114 Suede on 01.04.16 at 10:13 pm

Tear down house just sold down my street for 150k over an already ridiculous ask.

Over the slow Christmas season.

In 5 days listed on the market.

Also listed a property of mine to rent and have had 6 emails a day for a week. Working professionals, dentists, engineers, ppl “waiting to get into the market”

YVR on fire for sales and rentals. How long will it last…

#115 Mark on 01.04.16 at 10:14 pm

“Absolutely, In fact there is deflation… in your world.”

Each individual will have a consumption basket that is weighted more heavily towards some factors than others. For instance, I spend a lot of my income on (air) transportation keeping up with my contacts around the world, and the fall in airfares has been dramatic.

The StatsCan CPI data attempts to come up with a sort of average. There isn’t much, if any evidence that StatsCan has an ideological slant one way or another — they are very well respected as a neutral party. But each individual will have their own unique experience as most of us are not ‘average’.

As for the CAD$, by not owning it, you are missing out on a currency that is likely to be in increasing demand as house prices continue to fall and people race to pay back debt as interest rate spreads rise going forward. Additionally, foreign selling pressure on the CAD$ will abate sooner or later. Me and Troll often disagree on a lot of stuff, but at these levels, we are closer to the historic lower bound of the CAD/USD$ pair than even the neutral or upper point. Hence, probabilities do favour some recovery in the CAD$. Speculative fervour against CAD$/USD$ is so significant at this point, even amongst commoners, that some sort of reversion is almost assured.

Garth routinely points out the folly of extreme views, and drawing upon my experience and obviously his, I would have to say that we’ve done well by not believing that its the ‘end of the world’. I do hold a modest allocation to gold and silver stocks in excess of that of XIU, but only because I believe that the sector is so much out of favour that some sort of reversion is likely, and the profitability aspects of the industry are improving by the day as the economy continues to weaken on account of deflationary forces that are winding their way through the system.

#116 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 10:16 pm

#103 Sherly disclosure 2016 on 01.04.16 at 9:55 pm
And you have not tried it yet?
What were you waiting for?
….

The reserection of Fredy Mercury.. loved that man.

#117 Suede on 01.04.16 at 10:17 pm

In 2015…

Balanced portfolio up 1%. All bc of USD exchange, otherwise it would be down a lot more.

YVR SFH’s up between 10-15% depending on the hood. Was a good your to speculate, says hindsight Harry.

It’s not a contest. — Garth

#118 Leo Trollstoy on 01.04.16 at 10:18 pm

Socialist Republik of Albertistan – Garth

This is just the beginning and exactly how the NDP will be described by future writers as they preside over the collapse of the Alberta. JT and the Libs will be remembered in the same light as the Canadian economy follows. Conservatives will just keep quiet and enjoy the show from the sidelines. Poetic.

#119 TurnerNation on 01.04.16 at 10:18 pm

They’ll stone you when you’re young and able
They’ll stone you just like they said they would.
We’re living (again) in slow burn communism.
Teacher leave those kids alone.

#120 Leo Trollstoy on 01.04.16 at 10:21 pm

There’s one benefit I can think of: It’ll help the tech sector.

Well said. That is one reason why many posters have cited the boom in tech on this blog. You’re spot on.

#121 Leo Trollstoy on 01.04.16 at 10:23 pm

#37 Freedom First on 01.04.16 at 7:22 pm

Well said.

#122 Investx on 01.04.16 at 10:34 pm

A 40% chance of yet another rate cut?

LoL. Even though I was right in doubting Garth’s belief that rates couldn’t remain low for an extended period, a la Japan, I’m still surprised it’s getting this bad.

Those are futures market odds, not mine. — Garth

#123 Yaley on 01.04.16 at 10:36 pm

Greater Vancouver real estate numbers for December. Another record breaking month with no signs of slowing at all for prices and sales. But probably the biggest story here is how low the active listings are.

http://www.yattermatters.com/2016/01/vancouver-average-home-prices-record-busting/

#124 Sheane Wallace on 01.04.16 at 10:37 pm

As for the CAD$, by not owning it, you are missing out on a currency….
……………………………
I wouldn’t say I’ve been missing it, Bob.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXsIfpnThFA

Extreme view loonnie at .71? Just wait.

#125 Sheane Wallace on 01.04.16 at 10:42 pm

There are predictions for the yuan going down 8 % against the USD this year alone. At least they have manufacturing. We have oil at production cost of 60 + that will sell for 25-30 and record debt. Fantastic outlook for any currency.

#126 Leo Trollstoy on 01.04.16 at 10:42 pm

Hey, great strategy for the last four years! — Garth

People who buy gold are funny. They make me laugh.

#127 Sheane Wallace on 01.04.16 at 10:46 pm

#89 Kreditanstalt

The time for gold will come, but we are not there yet. First the USD will sky-rocket so they will buy the whole world and THEN gold will go up. Give it 3-5 years down the road.

#128 pwn3d on 01.04.16 at 10:49 pm

#95 3 months vacation on 01.04.16 at 9:29 pm

I wonder how long would you last in a classroom…
1 day? 3?

I would not do it for 3 months vacation.
—————–
Well, since you asked, I used to be a TA back in the day as a summer job. I lasted a few summers with kids who needed remedial help, so not exactly your best students. I don’t know what you think goes on in a classroom but it’s a fairly civilized place. One summer I had to be the ‘teacher’ as the normal one had personal issues and missed a few weeks.

Even as a summer job I thought I was overpaid :) But back then teachers were not paid nearly as much as they are now, so it was never something people I knew aspired to. It was always a fall back job if the profession of choice didn’t go through. For me I did get into what I wanted so I never went back. Personally I think teachers should max out at around 80. You want it to be a job that people kind of want rather than a position people desperately want because it’s overpaid. What are all these graduating ‘teachers’ going to do?

IMO, school teachers should be paid less, and preschool teachers should be paid a lot more. But because they are market driven, they are not. Teachers are not market driven at all and you see the consequences of that.

#129 Mr. Wrong on 01.04.16 at 10:49 pm

Really? move things into the US? At an exchange of 1.40? Seems pretty high to try to go into a market that seems to be plummeting both north and south of the border.
Make the wrong picks and then you loose on the stock + the 40% exchange! SCARY~!
Your almost better off buying houses.

Where did I suggest converting now? That was two years ago. Dud you? — Garth

#130 Keith in Calgary on 01.04.16 at 10:53 pm

Just a though for all of you still sore Albertan conservatives sniffling about the NDP, who have yet had a chance to do any lasting and still to be documented damage………..

You gave us Alison Redford, who’s resume reads like a leftist’s dream. Humanitarian civil rights lawyer and ex UN staffer…..worshipper of the terrorist Nelson Mandela…etc….etc…..

She was nothing more than a “commie pinko” calling herself a Conservative…….something that is quite common nowadays. How do you think she got the teacher’s union to support her in her leadership bid, which was the reason she won ?

#131 IHCTD9 on 01.04.16 at 10:54 pm

#93 Daisy Mae on 01.04.16 at 9:23 pm
“….we elected a tax-and-spend government …”

****************

Let’s reserve judgement. The ‘cons’ did far more damage to our country and economy — responsible for the situation we find ourselves in today.
————-

I see, so you are expecting T2 to improve the situation greatly over Harper yes?

OK, I’ll say it again: Harper left us with a 941 million deficit after having chopped it down from over 60 billion after the GFC via 5 consecutive years of reductions.

Please enlighten me as to the great improvements T2 will be making over this?

The guy just finished giving away more money than Harper’s deficit after 10 years to foreign contries to fight the climate change FFS.

His bungled “revenue neutral” tax cut flushed another 1.2 Billion down the shitter right out of the gate.

He doesn’t want to talk deficit numbers anymore, now he wants to talk debt to GDP ratios.

He keeps saying the opposite of what his defence and finance ministers are saying.

Please, try to answer plainly, on point; and refrain from making excuses.

Thanks.

#132 Julie K. on 01.04.16 at 10:54 pm

#71 vic guy on 01.04.16 at 8:26 ~ “The days of perpetual growth are over, with the aging boomer population the days of many funerals have come.”

*****

Astute observation. Assume you bought SCI (NYSE) about 15 or so years ago? Always a good idea to take act on trends when you spot them. Don’t want to be all talk, Vic.

Besides, guaranteed, you will be a client soon enough.

Peace

F55BL45BC

#133 45north on 01.04.16 at 11:03 pm

Despite what it’ll do to the dollar, there’s now a 40% chance the Bank of Canada will reduce its rate by half – a truly desperate move.

there’s a 40% chance that the people who voted Liberal will turn against them.

#134 Jay_Huhman on 01.04.16 at 11:04 pm

“A beater house in Toronto or Vancouver now costs a million bucks (the median house price in America is $219,600).”

No fair comparing two of the most expensive Canadian markets to the median US price; compare the median Canadian price to the US median. Still higher but not crazy higher.

CREA says $456,186. — Garth

#135 EMC on 01.04.16 at 11:09 pm

Oil per barrel went down to US$37 but we are still paying CAD$ 1 / liter. Relatively it went down from 1.30 but still not the price that it should be. When oil was $40 we were paying 60 cents.

I don’t see any price changes on engine oil though.
When the $ goes down they increase the prices. when $ goes up no one wants to talk about it. Crazy……

#136 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 11:14 pm

Mellenials.

I’m some what of an old bastard now, there are Monday nights when you have a bit to much to drink, you reflect.
Remembering bad Shit that happens to you on your slow journey to death..

I can dig up old tunes like this one. Ahhh
https://youtu.be/aTLU1Qx5ioI

What song will mellienals play when you find my seat at this smoke filled casino in 30 or so years.

Thats what I need to know

#137 x-moose on 01.04.16 at 11:14 pm

Non US made goods are dirt chip in Canada these days: just got myself a Jaeger LeCoultre at 45% discount in actual greenbuck terms compared to dealer pricing here in LA. No tax and free overnight shipment to SoCal.
Same holds true for the bimmers as well.

#138 Love my Kia on 01.04.16 at 11:18 pm

I always start reading blog comments at the end and work up to the beginning.

Always a good laugh to see how badly the subject of the post disintegrates into useless banter each time without fail.

Its like reading a newspaper from the back to the front to read the obits first.

#139 Move on VREU on 01.04.16 at 11:28 pm

Victoria Real Estate Update

You really are out to lunch with your kindergarten attempt to regurgitate Garth’s point ad naseum as if they were your own original thoughts.

You have spouted off for a year about how poor the Victoria market is, yet the bare bones stats on sales contradict your childish attempts to downplay the market.

“8,281 property sales through the Multiple Listings Service (MLS) eclipsed 2014’s 6,698 by over 19%, according to the Victoria Real-Estate Board. The latter, however, does not include the sale of unlisted properties such as the majority of pre-sale condos, townhomes and single-family-dwellings. Estimates for unlisted sales vary although industry insiders believe 500 transactions is a reasonable estimate.

Out of the 8,281 MLS sales for the year, 326 went to Lower Mainland buyers, a big jump from the previous year’s total of 205. The sudden increase is attributed to residents cashing in on Vancouver’s frenzied market and resettling
in the affordable (by comparison) capital region.”

If you truly live in Victoria, you can see the above truth taking place in Victoria’s communities – the rapid sales and low listings. Mainland Chinese buyers have shown up. In a city that is extremely homogenous, mainland buyers are now quite visible.

Perhaps its time to update your little charts with recent information from your parent’s basement. Oh, and get ready to show price increases because prices are back to their 2010 peak after only a few percentage increases. Wait until the BOC cuts rates for the next spike.

This comes from an experienced bear who has lived in Vancouver, worked in Richmond, and now lives in Victoria.

#140 OXI in GREECE on 01.04.16 at 11:30 pm

#127 IHCTD9 on 01.04.16 at 10:54 pm
#93 Daisy Mae on 01.04.16 at 9:23 pm
“….we elected a tax-and-spend government …”

****************

Let’s reserve judgement. The ‘cons’ did far more damage to our country and economy — responsible for the situation we find ourselves in today.
————-

I see, so you are expecting T2 to improve the situation greatly over Harper yes?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

ALL GOVT in the world today is bad. They are going berserk trying to stay in power by taxing the crap out of people which is having the opposite effect.

T2 is not as bad as Harper because Harper was a dictator that “censored” everything. There was ZERO democracy in the “Harper Party” because it was not the Conservative party. Now hopefully we have a little more democracy but we will see. There is so little democracy left anywhere that it will take a generation to get back what we “used” to have.

Where do you see more democracy in a party where every MP must be pro-choice, for example? — Garth

#141 Fed-up on 01.04.16 at 11:30 pm

In 2015…

Balanced portfolio up 1%. All bc of USD exchange, otherwise it would be down a lot more.

YVR SFH’s up between 10-15% depending on the hood. Was a good your to speculate, says hindsight Harry.

It’s not a contest. — Garth
—————————————————————————–

Of course it is. Isn’t this the essence of most of what is debated on this blog? Balanced and diversified portfolio vs bricks and dirt? Do we toss that all aside when real estate outperforms the other markets? Sadly Suede is right. If you held $250,000 of your $1,000,000 portfolio in USD last year, you would be ahead nearly $65,000 CDN on paper on that currency appreciation alone. A “balanced and diversified” portfolio in 2015 wiped most if not all of that out. So stating that a balanced portfolio is ahead or down only 1 percent or your capital has been “preserved” is load of you know what in most people’s view. Those that can do simple math anyway. I view this as a loss of 6-8%, possibly more in many cases.

Let’s be honest here. Last year, these amounts simply left in the Orange Guy’s shorts or whatever they call themselves now, would have slaughtered a balanced and diversified portfolio let alone insane Vancouver and Toronto real estate vs being balanced and diversified. Oh and being paid a 4% or 5% yield on a share that lost 40% of its value with no guarantee that it will recover, doesn’t add up either. REITs may also be suffering a similar fate. Who knows, this may be temporary or 2016 may be yet another dog for said portfolio.

In the meantime, “who cares” am I right? We all have endless time horizons to recover! Oh wait a minute…

Well I care for one and I highly doubt that I am alone.

Happy New Year everyone, peace out.

Actually I have always maintained it is not a contest. A one-asset strategy exaggerates risk, and the wisest investors own multiple asset classes, real estate being one. But not the only one. — Garth

#142 Aggregator on 01.04.16 at 11:31 pm

there’s now a 40% chance the Bank of Canada will reduce its rate by half

That's what swap rates and Canada's bond yield curve implies. However, what Poloz is trying to achieve is cutting rates for the non-housing sector while keeping mortgage rates steady. This is being achieved through macroprudential policies amongst Morneau, CMHC and OSFI. You can see their efforts by looking at the spread between average mortgage rates and 5yr bonds. Chart The widening spread is largely due to increase funding costs (higher premiums) for insuring and guaranteeing mortgage bonds and MBS, respectively. Although on a net basis overall mortgage rates are relatively flat, so the BoC's recent rate cut hasn't been passed to homebuyers so far.

The big discussion right now behind the scenes is how to get the private sector back to funding Canadian mortgages. There are numerous proposals being tossed around from the return of private label RMBS, more covered bond issuance (PDF), or as CMHC recently mulled, implementing an auction based price system.

But like one director from First National stated, "Good luck with that". Indeed, because no investor in their right mind would ever fund mortgages not backed by CMHC or the Government of Canada in this inflated market, unless they're fetching premium yields that are hundreds of basis points higher then the current risk-free suppressed rates. Not to mention the banks and CMHC would have to disclose more sensitive information regarding credit quality, homeowner equity, foreclosures, REO inventory, etc. So yes, good luck with that.

These are unusual times. Money is badly mispriced. And I highly doubt the govt will be able to land this market softly without the killing the CAD another 20-40%.

#143 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 11:43 pm

Trapped till my daddy dies, got to stay…This ww2 nazi killer deserves a fantastic send off.

Mellenials with brains..I’ll be right behind you..

https://youtu.be/W5ueEVlUUgk

#144 Kreditanstalt on 01.04.16 at 11:43 pm

#127 Sheane Wallace

Re: gold, there are limits to how far fundamentals can be disregarded, real supply faked, demand neutered and denial extended.

It smells to me like the trend in precious metals is just turning the corner now, this month.

We know they WILL try to prop up asset prices but no one knows how long governments CAN maintain this Potemkin façade of an economy. Cracks are showing everywhere.

There will be few if any “growth opportunities” or legitimate avenues for bona fide investment in the coming years. Speculation is what’s going on now and that trend will continue until today’s “investing” is revealed to be what it in fact is: BETTING.

Within a month or two is my bet.

#145 BC Guy on 01.04.16 at 11:47 pm

In other news …

Wikileaks reveals TPP may force the sale of CBC and Canada Post.

http://www.canadianprogressiveworld.com/2015/07/30/wikileaks-reveals-cbc-and-canada-post-may-be-sold-under-tpp-agreement/

#146 BC Guy on 01.04.16 at 11:50 pm

What we are seeing is the results of 10 years of Harper rule and Conservative ideology, gutting the manufacturing sector, putting all eggs in two baskets (oil and housing).

#147 BC Guy on 01.04.16 at 11:54 pm

Harper loved allowing the sale of Canada’s resources to the lowest bidder, hence the current economic downturn.

The Canadian Wheat Board sold to a Saudi and USA company.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1939906/canadian-wheat-board-sold-to-saudi-owned-global-grain-group/

The Saudi company is state-owned. Funny how Harper hated state-run or co-op organizations in Canada, but if they’re China or Saudi state-run it’s OK. I know, old news. But his policies are hitting us now. Trudeau hasn’t had enough time to take responsibility for this mess.

#148 nonplused on 01.04.16 at 11:59 pm

Hard to see how the math is going to all work out for the average family. Tax rate heading towards 54%, GST 5% or higher, now a new 10% carbon tax on everything you buy, and with the Canadian dollar crashing steep increases coming to much of what you buy with the remaining 31% or less or your income you have left. Since you pay your mortgage with the remaining 31 percent and that is likely to creep up too, well it is no wonder most people don’t use their TFSA’s. The have to use their HELOC’s just to keep little jimmy in soccer.

Normally this sort of thing would lead to a silent tax revolt but that is no longer possible since everything is source deducted, so the revolution when it comes (right about when the HELOC’s are maxed out) will be much more colorful.

The behaviour of governments at all levels reminds me of the bad guys in “Monster’s Inc.”, who were going to increase scream production buy inventing a machine to suck it out of the kids. If you haven’t seen the movie, a better analogy might be to try and raise milk production by leaving the sucking machine on the teat all day.

Oh well they say a democracy gets the government it deserves. Clearly we are a bunch of morons, taken on average, if the people we elect are to be considered representatives of the people.

Back to my favorite topic of late, carbon taxes (the tax on everything). Every time the government tries to implement incentives or disincentives it twists the economy in sub-optimal ways. I want to talk about energy but first a couple other examples. Want to know why pot is so popular? Because booze and smokes are so expensive. Want to know why you can’t get a diesel in an F150? Because the US government banned them in vehicles weighing less than 3500 pounds gross. So now everyone is ridding around in the huge vehicles even if they don’t need them. That did not make things better. The large bore motorcycle tax saved Harley but it gave the small and medium bore market to Japan, and it eventually became much larger.

So back to the carbon tax, which is the most sinister tax ever. In a modern economy, raising the energy tax raises the cost of everything. Even the phone company has to raise prices because guess what? Phones run on electricity. Internet and cable too. My kid’s school has at least 100 computers that I don’t think ever get shut off probably using 75 watts each. The tax applies to every one of them so guess what the school board needs? More money. Don’t forget the lights and heating. The teachers drive to school and heat their own homes and pay their own cable bills so they will all want a raise too. Food will go up because farming, processing, refrigeration, and transportation all use energy too.

And all this to do what? Increase the incentive to build windmills and solar farms? While I am all in favor of letting that industry develop, it is too intermittent at this point than to do more than supplement the grid. Full backup from carbon sources has to remain on line for those cloudy, cold days with no wind. Therefore it is a complete waste of money to build more of them than the market will bear. All one needs to do is look at the complete disaster the US solar and electric car industry is for proof. And since we don’t get much sun in Canada in the winter, when you need the power most, the problem is compounded for us.

Oh and I love the bit about “moving to a high tech industry”. I’m pretty sure we already got one. And high-tech is pretty power intensive per employee too. Pretty much every high tech employee has a couple of computers running day and night plus server backup. Someone like Google has entire warehouses all around the world stacked with servers running all their services. They need massive air-conditioners just to keep the place from melting down. Apple Store? Think massive warehouse of servers with huge air conditioners. That’s where your iTunes come from, baby. Then there are a lot more servers and routers between the servers and your laptop. We ain’t going to run all that on a couple of solar panels.

On a sunny day, one solar panel ($300), one deep cycle battery ($100), and a small inverter ($40) for about $440 could reasonable run just your laptop but you will replace the battery every 5 years and the solar panels in 20, so the total cost is $740 to run your laptop for 20 years. You’d never spend that on regular electricity not even close. But you probably need to spend at least twice that to pay for all the electricity it takes to run your whole share of the internet.

#149 prairie person on 01.05.16 at 12:09 am

More on VREU

The figures from the real estate board while always suspect reflect my experience over the last few months. Houses go up for sale in my neighbourhood and there is a sold sign within days. The 995,000 house sold. That, to me, was a marker. That’s high for this neighbourhood. I’ve been considering selling, moving back to the prairies for a year on a sabbatical, but heard a story today that gave me pause. A couple sold their Van house for 1 mil. Moved, didn’t like the place they moved to. Want to return. Can’t. The 1 mil house is now 1.6. They’re priced out. If I sold and went east, it would be with the idea house prices would drop and I’d be able to return, if I wanted, buy at a lower price and keep the difference in my bank account. However, given the way prices have moved lately, my assessment is up 40k, it might be better to rent out my place in Vic, rent on the prairies and, in a year, make a decision to stay or return. The person who has been posting charts about Victoria prices simply hasn’t squared with what I’ve been observing. However, all I’ve got is anecdotal information. Yet, it seems the observations of houses going up for sale, time before there was a sold sign, are accurate.

#150 Mark on 01.05.16 at 12:18 am

“We have oil at production cost of 60 + that will sell for 25-30 and record debt.”

Nice try, but Suncor produces at $27/barrel cash:

http://www.suncor.com/pdf/2015-Q3_Suncor_QuarterlyReport_English.pdf

(page 17)

And costs are deflating YoY on account of lower energy and labour costs.

CNQ is producing for ~$15 + $5 in royalties = ~$20.

http://www.cnrl.com/upload/media_element/973/01/q315_interim-report.pdf

(page 22)

The death of established senior Canadian oil producers has been severely exaggerated. If anything, these quality senior companies are able to use their superior balance sheets and cash flow to devour quality junior projects and accomplish O&G investment at significantly deflated prices. Positioning themselves well for an inevitable comeback.

Contrast such with the high cost US production which is set to fall rapidly on account of well depletion and severely restricted capital.

#151 Mark on 01.05.16 at 12:21 am

“Although on a net basis overall mortgage rates are relatively flat, so the BoC’s recent rate cut hasn’t been passed to homebuyers so far.”

Indeed. And future BoC cuts probably won’t be ‘passed onto homebuyers’ either. As, in a declining RE market (in Canada for the past 2-2.5 years), RE owners are increasingly less creditworthy, and thus RE as an asset class attracts a higher spread.

One of my ‘predictions’ for the year was that the BoC would cut rates even further, but not a dime of the rate cuts would be passed onto homeowners. And that many mortgage renewers would simply sign “posted rate” renewal notices rather than have the bargaining power with their (or other) banks to get even a ‘discounted’ rate.

#152 Bobs ur uncle on 01.05.16 at 12:29 am

142 Aggregator
I love hearing the insightful commentary.
Keep em coming.
Cheers

#153 Flaccid - Realties.ca on 01.05.16 at 12:32 am

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/04/flaccid/ […]

#154 SquareNinja on 01.05.16 at 12:37 am

In light of the massively falling Canadian dollar, there are YouTubers saying that debt denominated in CAD could be converted to debt denominated in USD. Is there any fact to this? Could it ever happen?

As someone who has a lot of CAD debt, but earns some USD, the falling Loonie is making me better off…

#155 someBCguy on 01.05.16 at 1:08 am

@24

Hong Kong population density: Hong Kong is one of the most densely populated areas in the world with an overall density of some 6,300 people per square kilometre.

Richmond population density: 1473/sq km
http://www.richmond.ca/discover/about/demographics.htm

Burnaby population density: 2464/sq km

Other areas left as an exercise for the reader.

#156 M on 01.05.16 at 1:29 am

..hmmm.. getting carried away again Gartho baby…
Tell you what:
1. Jenny baby will reverse the rate increase (together with buying another pair of depends)
2. Kanukistan will lower the interest rates (we agree on this one)
3. Bond market will move against the canadian peso and the 10 yrs bond will force mortgages higher.

..oh yes.. Los Federales will tighten at 58 c per US dollar

#157 M on 01.05.16 at 1:39 am

..oh yes.. the great canadian banks have 400 billion (with a ‘b”) exposure to the brick layers with most of them sub-prime

..the year of shorting the crap out of them is nigh

..economy on the rocks means “too big to bail” and yes somewhere in the next 2 years we’ll see the resounding failure of the grand canadian financial house of cards.

..just’ve seen the “big Short”. It triggered good feelings about myself . I, for one, have only very good memories about 2008-2009.

..and no.. the morons living in tents do not deserve pity. ditto our morons (that will live in tents) .

..there is opportunity in “good times”..there is even bigger opportunity in disasters.

in a certain part of europe, stupidity is considered a “cardinal sin”..you know… similar to “murder”

:)

#158 IHCTD9 on 01.05.16 at 1:47 am

#148 nonplused on 01.04.16 at 11:59 pm

————

Good post. We really are moving into a new era, where the average working guy will either need to somehow get rich, or decide if the middle class is worth the fight over a publicly funded, work free existence.

Over the last 5 years, I’ve watched several companies go out of business via voluntary liquidation of assets, and sale of property. No takers for the sale of the actual business itself, these having been profitable small enterprises at one time. Several other small companies I know of with 60something owners are looking at the near future with an understanding that all things considered, they will not be going anywhere positive within the balance of their working careers. We may see several small businesses go out voluntarily before their time if they can not be sold on to new owners. This is a pretty sad situation.

The only real escape from existing and the coming taxes is through reduced consumption, and avoiding retail. Energy usage is going to be a big one obviously, but at least in Ontario, reducing your hydro consumption 50% does not reduce your bill 50%. In my area, using absolutely no power at all will result in a $45.00 minimum bill for the month. The only real avenue worth any effort at all in this province is getting off the grid entirely.

At some point, Canadian taxpayers will become offended. At the debt, lack of value, and at the level of aggression employed by government to further collection of revenue.

I am watching a fellow I know well who is a full on Liberal Partisan, but is essentially a financial conservative, and a business owner to boot. When the time comes where I see this guy actually getting pissed at any Liberal government because they are kicking the crap out of his margins,then I can be well assured there will be 100’s of thousands more Liberal voters out there that are feeling the same way.

This will be the point where government revenues start to really tank, no matter who is in power. The point where they have gone too far, they’ve slapped us out of our slumber, and we’re going to do something about it.

I will admit, it will take severe pain to crystallize this kind of motivation, but there may well be a perfect storm brewing.

Better batten down the hatches…

#159 drydock on 01.05.16 at 3:09 am

#63 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 8:11 pm
Need a word that describes a character that has the maturity level of a 15 year old, balls bigger than Chuck Yager, views the world through the eyes of a verial 19 year old male, trapped in a 56 year old broken and a self abused body.

Bet that word has yet to be invented

01010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010

Reprobate.

#160 George S on 01.05.16 at 7:07 am

“On a sunny day” from#148 nonplused

Most small inverters eventually f up electronics. Laptops are probably OK though. Deep cycle batteries vary, cheap ones may last a year especially if you deep cycle them because of undersized solar panels and/or cloudy days.
That is the problem with solar/wind power and one that we are going to be facing in the coming years as we move away from fossil fuels. No matter what the reason, fossil fuels are going to get much more expensive and harder to find over the next century or so. If the world is serious about reducing Carbon emissions there are going to have to be some solutions presented other than going high tech. Where are all the promised storage solutions? A $3500 tesla battery pack? That is it?
When you really look at it fossil fuels should be treated like the precious, wonderful gift that they are instead of being wasted on non essential consumption like driving an F350 Off Road Special to the LB store 6 blocks away to get 6 beer.

#161 Tom Jones on 01.05.16 at 7:27 am

You got the Canada picture right – but I think you’re incorrectly bullish on the US of A….deficits, bad manufacturing data, solely a consumer economy and 0% interest rates for an unprecedented period of time creating malinvestment everywhere.

It can’t end well for our neighbours to the south.

#162 fancy_pants on 01.05.16 at 7:55 am

2016 will bring about more of the same. increased public debt, heavier taxation. rinse, repeat. rinse, repeat. The system is hosed. Lower rates to boost economy and you get lower dollar and more import inflation. Raise rates and you hose the masses with debt servicing. So… sputter along, business as usual? molasses in the tank now. or QE injection which will just inflate the standard bubbles (markets and RE)? what a mess. But carry on, nothing to report. business as usual. debt driven economies ‘work’ until they don’t. just like drugs work until they don’t. eventually both result in an early death. Doesn’t really matter which gov’t sits in the armchair, it’s the structure that is guaranteeing the end result.

#146 BC Guy on 01.04.16 at 11:50 pm
Ontario manufacturing has been gutted by 10 years of provincial liberal rule. Ontario is a toxic environment to set up and/or run shop. And Alberta is the victim of low global oil prices more than any domestic policies.

#135 EMC on 01.04.16 at 11:09 pm
falling oil offset by falling dollar = no price adjustments at the Canadian pumps

#163 KF on 01.05.16 at 7:58 am

Average US prices may be 219k, vs Toronto or Van. Trying buying in NYC or San Fran. Not really a solid comparison.
Thanks

#164 maxx on 01.05.16 at 8:14 am

#12 Dean on 01.04.16 at 6:53 pm

“And my Burnaby house assessment went up by 245k for 2015……….things just don’t add up up.”

Sure they do….this variable is ex-market. It is engineered justification for the cavernous maw of tax collection. Plain and simple.

#165 Mark on 01.05.16 at 8:14 am

“Hong Kong population density: Hong Kong is one of the most densely populated areas in the world with an overall density of some 6,300 people per square kilometre.”

Careful. A good chunk of HKG isn’t even habitable on account of being basically mountainous, or reserved for parklands. While nearly all of Burnaby is basically flat land. So adjusted for habitable land, HKG’s density relative to Burnaby is dramatically higher than even what you quote.

In light of the massively falling Canadian dollar, there are YouTubers saying that debt denominated in CAD could be converted to debt denominated in USD. Is there any fact to this? Could it ever happen?

No, no fact to that at all. I know Sherry Cooper and her ilk were pushing currency unification with the US in the late 1990s, but there is pretty much zero appetite for that. Despite the recent setbacks, Canada has gained an immense amount of respect over the past decade on the world stage for the quality of its currency. Keeping inflation solidly under control has lowered risk premia applicable to CAD$ borrowing nicely. Even with the most recent currency swoon, CAD$ bond yields are firmly anchored and have not come to resemble the sort of spreads more typical of banana republic nations when their currencies go into the dumps. Most of the CAD$ weakness is attributable to currency speculators and short term traders, not long-term bond investors. Long-term smart money still has an incredible amount of confidence in CAD$ obligations.

#166 gut check on 01.05.16 at 8:22 am

Here’s my spooky outlook:

We’re no longer looking at being a production based economy in fact we’re targeting the opposite.

Canada is counting on the health sector now, and you know what that needs in order to flourish?
Well, illness, of course. And lots of it.

#167 The American on 01.05.16 at 8:54 am

At #30: Reginald O’Reilly, the next time your friend(s) state that Canada is a better run country, you can provide them the following link… Canada is at 104% of Public Debt to GDP, while the U.S. is at 73% Public Debt to GDP. Hmmmmmmmmm, I am confident you *never* hear that on the CBC, do ya? Also, your friend(s) need a real lesson in economics to believe the value of the CAD should be “at least” $1.05. Canada is a commodity-driven economy – a one-trick pony for lack of a better term. It is not a dynamic economy. As the old saying goes, when America sneezes, Canada catches a cold.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

#168 AfterTheHouseSold on 01.05.16 at 9:31 am

#163 KF
“Trying buying in NYC or San Fran. Not really a solid comparison”.

That’s correct. Not really a solid comparison. Toronto is no NYC, not in any stretch of the imagination. Nor is Van comparable to San Fran.

Toronto is more comparable to Chicago and Van to Seattle as substantiated here numerous times.

#169 Toronto_CA on 01.05.16 at 9:38 am

“Average US prices may be 219k, vs Toronto or Van. Trying buying in NYC or San Fran. Not really a solid comparison.
Thanks”

Newsflash, Toronto and Vancouver are NOTHING like NYC or San Fran, respectively. Regional versus Global Cities.

I am so sick of fellow Canadians thinking our cities are some how the equivalent of New York, London, Tokyo, Paris, Hong Kong.

Have you been to Sydney? It’s what the biggest city of a country our size should be like, but instead we’re pathetic in comparison. Have a look at their waterfront or subway map.

#170 Estrella on 01.05.16 at 9:42 am

University of guelph prepared a report on future food prices. It’s a pdf so I can’t supply a link, but I believe you can Google it. Abstract is below. I hope Canadians like the taste of drywall.

Abstract
In 2014,the Food Institute of the University of Guelph predicted that overall food prices in 2015 would
rise by up to 3.0%. As stated in our revised report in February 2015, this prediction was based on a
much stronger Canadian dollar versus the American currency. For 2015, overall food price inflationary
patterns were consistent with our predictions. However, fruit, nut and vegetable price inflation rates
rose at a much higher rate than expected due to a much weaker Canadian dollar. Some products
embedded in other food categories like pasta in grains and other processed foods also pushed prices
higher than anticipated. For 2016, the Food Institute is forecasting food inflation rates across the
country to be anywhere between 2.0% to 4.0%.
Categories
Meats
Expected Price Increases
2.5% to 4.5%
Fish and Seafood 1.0% to 3.0%
Dairy and Eggs
Grains
0.0% to 2.0%
0.0% to 2.0%
Fruits and Nuts 2.5% to 4.5%
Vegetables
Food from Restaurants
2.0% to 4.0%
1.5% to 3.5%
Overall Food Expenditures + 2.0% to + 4.0%
Once again, we expect food inflation in 2016 to exceed the general inflation rate. In dollar terms, we
can anticipate based on historical data, the average Canadian household will spend $8,631 on food,
of which $2,416 will be outside the household (restaurants). This means our forecast predicts the
average household could spend up to $345 more on food in 2016.
This report employs seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models with
exogenous regressors, supplemented by the authors’ expert opinions to determine forecasts for the
seven commodities. Significant factors considered for 2016 were El Nino’s impact on the climate,
the lowering Canadian dollar, and important consumer trends. The three major consumer trends
we expect in 2016 are supply chain transparency and animal welfare, gut health, and vegetable
proteins. Given that 2016 will be the International of the Pulses, more emphasis will be put on protein
alternatives for this coming year.
This year, for the first time, we also present results from a consumer survey the Food Institute
recently conducted on higher beef prices and their impact on consumers. An abstract of the study is
presented at the end of the report.
Une version française de ce document est disponible en visitant le site du Food Institute au

#171 IHCTD9 on 01.05.16 at 9:46 am

#140 OXI in GREECE on 01.04.16 at 11:30 pm

ALL GOVT in the world today is bad. They are going berserk trying to stay in power by taxing the crap out of people which is having the opposite effect.

T2 is not as bad as Harper because Harper was a dictator that “censored” everything. There was ZERO democracy in the “Harper Party” because it was not the Conservative party. Now hopefully we have a little more democracy but we will see. There is so little democracy left anywhere that it will take a generation to get back what we “used” to have.

___________________________________________

I don’t know where T2 will end up on the debt end of things after 4 years, but if he plans on keeping most of his election promises, 80-100 Billion probably would be close.

100 Billion is a pretty steep price to get a “nice guy” into Ottawa so “hopefully we can get some democracy but we will see”.

Fact is, Harper was voted out, Trudeau was not voted in. Trudeau’s election promises were horrific then, and are terrifying now – but Harper was so mean that there was seemingly no cost too great to have him voted off the island.

Just keep yourself intellectually honest 10+ years from now. Eventually, Canadians will be paying more to service debt than we spend on education. Eventually, the big government will have to shrink, and it won’t matter how nice of a guy was voted in.

Keep your eye on Ontario, it will probably be the first to reveal the future of Canada. If someone or something does not change the runaway spending in Ontario, we’ll be into it for a half Trillion in 10 more years – and that’s a minimum.

Think about it – that’s about 38,500.00 for every man woman and child in Ontario. Labour participation rate in Ontario is ~ 66%, so crank that up to 55 thousand or so for everyone earning an official income. Top it off with the fact that there are roughly 1 million public servants in Ontario who are paid in tax dollars and who do not add to GDP, and we’re at 62,500 per individual private sector worker.

How will they fix a half Trillion in debt via ~8 million stagnant private sector paycheques in Ontario?

The only reasonable answer is you don’t let it go that far in the first place…

#172 cramar on 01.05.16 at 9:59 am

I don’t get it! With mega layoffs in the oil patch and oil-related activity all but dead out there, manufacturing output in Ontario dropping, export revenue tanked, then how can Canada have a GROWTH of 1%? Seems logical that it should be well into minus territory! How can you have “growth” when many sectors of the economy are dropping and probably the worst areas by double digits?

In 2014 the economy was chugging along. In 2015 everything tanked! We became the worst performing industrial economy in the world. Yet the “official” information was we had tiny “growth.” Logically we should have had minus growth of somewhere in the minus 3% to 10% range. And in 2016 more “growth” is forecast!

We know that Harper’s gov’t. lied about the state of the economy. It seems to me that regardless of who is in power, someone is constantly lying about the economy to present “GROWTH” regardless of what goes on in reality.

#173 SunShowers on 01.05.16 at 10:00 am

#69 Satrunal Forvoten on 01.04.16 at 8:24 pm

Wow….climate change…over hundreds of thousands of years ago…without mankind or carbon.

—————————————————-

Climate change has occurred in the distant past without human action, therefore climate change events today aren’t caused by humans.

Forest fires have occurred in the distant past without human action, therefore forest fires today aren’t caused by humans.

Your argument is bad and you should feel bad.

#174 bdy sktrn on 01.05.16 at 10:16 am

christy clark is about to bump up the homeowner grant from 1.1m so if your assessment went over this level you will likely still get the rebate.

1.35 is my guess for the new level.

thankfully we have a non commie govt in this province – and we also have strongest econ, best retail sales, most jobs and best weather.

most van residents would have both feet removed with a dull axe before living in edmonton, markham or moncton

#175 bdy sktrn on 01.05.16 at 10:27 am

On a sunny day, one solar panel ($300), one deep cycle battery ($100), and a small inverter ($40) for about $440 could reasonable run just your laptop but you will replace the battery every 5 years and the solar panels in 20, so the total cost is $740 to run your laptop for 20 years. You’d never spend that on regular electricity not even close. But you probably need to spend at least twice that to pay for all the electricity it takes to run your whole share of the internet.
———————————————–
one full charge per day on a typical laptop will consume about 1kWhr/month or under $1.50/year

times 20 years is 30 bucks.

$30 vs $740 (really over $1000 because you will need new batteries)

‘trudeaumath’ says the solar is cheaper.

#176 saskatoon on 01.05.16 at 10:36 am

for teachers:

the solution is simple:

prohibit them from voting.

they consume taxes…

and ultimately contribute nothing to the cost of government.

if they CHOOSE this “career” path, then they should morally relinquish suffrage rights.

#177 John Prine on 01.05.16 at 10:44 am

38 Hope & Ruin on 01.04.16 at 7:24 pm
My neighbour is constantly berating Harper and the cons. Talks about how socialism built this country, loves the NDP and Libs, sticking it to the 1%. Big union guy and a boomer.

Next day he is bitching about how high his taxes are and telling me about his tax avoidance strategies. I mean come-on.
——————————————————————–

Who has been setting tax levels in Canada, Alberta, British Columbia for the past decade? Who has accumulated these huge deficits? Who mismanaged oil revenues? BC medical for a family of 3 is now $1,800 a year. All Conservative governments (BC is really Conservative)

#178 AB Boxster on 01.05.16 at 10:46 am

#146 BC Guy
putting all eggs in two baskets
———————————–
The ‘eggs in one basket’ argument is lame.
Housing and oil were the only industries over the past 10 years that provided any meaningful growth in Canada.
Look to the Ontario/Quebec provincial governments for why manufacturing has been hollowed out.

Now that oil is in the tank, policies of the Liberal provincial governments are far more visible.
I suppose Canada should not have exploited the $100 per barrel oil price over the past several years.

Yes, we should have sold this oil to the world for much less, so that the Ontario manufacturing industry could have been more competitive.

Ridiculous economics.

#179 saskatoon on 01.05.16 at 11:00 am

#69 Satrunal Forvoten

indeed.

those remaining who still “believe” in the grave dangers of anthropogenic global warming are either:

1. directly or indirectly benefiting from the propaganda machine/government handouts

2. have LOW IQ

3. OR are too proud to admit that they were DUPED

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyUDGfCNC-k&feature=youtu.be

#180 JSS on 01.05.16 at 11:18 am

#151 Mark on 01.05.16 at 12:21 am

“One of my ‘predictions’ for the year was that the BoC would cut rates even further, but not a dime of the rate cuts would be passed onto homeowners.”


If you have a variable rate mortgage, you might get some of the rate cut passed to you – which is better than nothing.

#181 For those about to flop... on 01.05.16 at 11:32 am

#165 Mark on 01.05.16 at 8:14 am
“Hong Kong population density: Hong Kong is one of the most densely populated areas in the world with an overall density of some 6,300 people per square kilometre.”

Careful. A good chunk of HKG isn’t even habitable on account of being basically mountainous, or reserved for parklands. While nearly all of Burnaby is basically flat land. So adjusted for habitable land, HKG’s density relative to Burnaby is dramatically higher than even what you quote.

///////////////////////////////////
Are you trying to say that there are no parks in Burnaby,because that would be one of your craziest statements yet.

M41BC

#182 Calgary Rip Off on 01.05.16 at 11:35 am

As you are an investment specialist I wont argue with facts of economy of the dollar and oil prices.

Driving to work at 7:30 am in Calgary this morning: Shaganappi(very very busy). The drive along the river(very very busy).

As the sky is falling, why are malls, costco and traffic so busy? Who are the people spending all the money?

I remember being on I-90 in the summer of 1991, walked in with my dad into a giant store in Bismarck, North Dakota, at 5 pm. Rush hour. I saw maybe 2-3 people at most in this giant food store. Where were all the people? I dont see this type of behavior or people in Calgary. Quite the opposite. Seems more like Beijing with clogged roadways and people everywhere. Perhaps the reason why in Russian the word thank you relates to having more space?(Spaceba)

#183 Housing is Global on 01.05.16 at 11:36 am

Housing in major cities in Canada will do fine. Foreign money inflows from China need a place to invest and that place is real estate. Stock markets can fall fapidly (see Shanghai) and be manipulated so billions of people wont invest there. The real question then becomes when will Vancouver prices catch up to Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Beijing prices.

Another few million $$ to go. The positive for Vancouver is you have the rich moving there for the better air, education, and way of life.

#184 Chris on 01.05.16 at 11:41 am

Meh. Let me summarize the next weeks worth of posts. Insert words like “T2, Albertistan, Canuckistan, moist, wrinklies, house horny, bla bla.” Lots of cherry picked examples which are really anecdotes, not statistics. Here’s the gist of the matter. Don’t buy more house than you need and can really afford. Invest in the markets, diversify both geographically and by sector. Be patient. All the pendulums that have swung one way will swing back in time – aka reversion to the mean. Personally I own lots of Canadian stocks, not Garth’s suggestions, but I’m doing fine. Relax people.

#185 Fall off your chair funny! on 01.05.16 at 11:42 am

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/ex-mcguinty-aide-charged-in-gas-plant-scandal-trying-to-crowdfund-cost-of-legal-fees-1.2724165

#186 Housing is Global on 01.05.16 at 11:43 am

Post 169
#169 Toronto_CA on 01.05.16 at 9:38 am
“Average US prices may be 219k, vs Toronto or Van. Trying buying in NYC or San Fran. Not really a solid comparison.
Thanks”

Newsflash, Toronto and Vancouver are NOTHING like NYC or San Fran, respectively. Regional versus Global Cities.

I am so sick of fellow Canadians thinking our cities are some how the equivalent of New York, London, Tokyo, Paris, Hong Kong.

Have you been to Sydney? It’s what the biggest city of a country our size should be like, but instead we’re pathetic in comparison. Have a look at their waterfront or subway map.

———————————–

Vancouver has the much nicer downtown and a more leisurely way of living than San Franscisco. Toronto IS like NYC, but safer with free medical.

Vancouver has more foreign students than San Franscisco. It has more foreign born immigrants residing there. It welcomes parents and grandparents that San Fran doesnt. I can go on and on but Vancouver is THE CITY to go to in Asian minds. Not San Fran.

And oh, have you seen the prices in Vancouver? Assessments of some homes in to $60 million range. Yes. Its a global city now.

#187 Godth on 01.05.16 at 11:47 am

#167 The American on 01.05.16 at 8:54 am

Add the two (public + external) and it’s pretty much a wash. It’s all unpayable regardless so who cares? All this make believe abstraction will be washed away by time and nature, that’s a guarantee.

The ancient Sumerians were far smarter than we are, the Greeks too – Jubilee or social disintegration or war and then nothing matters.

Did Franz Ferdinand just have his head chopped off in Saudi?

#188 Herb on 01.05.16 at 11:50 am

#162 fancy_pants (and other striped-pant diehards),

“Ontario manufacturing has been gutted by 10 years of provincial liberal rule.”

It couldn’t possibly be that manufacturing in Ontario has fallen victim to the legally-sanctioned vice of greed, with all corporations and business operations maximizing profits/shareholder value by, among other cost-cutting improvements, lowering labour costs through out-sourcing/off-shoring?

Naw, far easier to blame a government, any government, that really can’t do a thing except provide support to corporations (shouldn’t this be decried as “socialist”?) and perhaps liberate business from any contribution to the cost of government. The alternative, get into a profitable line of business or lower your expectations, would be unthinkable.

Was “What’s good for General Motors is good for the country” ever really good for the country? Can’t expect an objective answer, but the ideology-serving replies are obvious.

#189 JimH on 01.05.16 at 11:51 am

#150 Mark on 01.05.16 at 12:18 am
“… Nice try, but Suncor produces at $27/barrel cash:
http://www.suncor.com/pdf/2015-Q3_Suncor_QuarterlyReport_English.pdf
===============================
Actually, nice try Mark; beautiful snow-job Suncor!

Yes, Mark; Mostly through massive job slashing, Suncor can crow about getting it’s cost down to $27-$29/Bbl.

Trouble is, this is not at all Suncor’s true cost of production.

The $27-$29(CAD) figure represents Suncor’s “Lifting Cost” only, and yes, they have managed to get it down from around $36.34(CAD) just last year (2014). This was no small feat, as the economic picture in Alberta clearly reflects.

The lifting cost is an important cost in the oil production industry, no doubt; just like the cost of a side of beef is important to a butcher. But the cost of that side of beef is not all that is involved in running a butcher shop!

So, what is missing from the true cost of Suncor’s production? Let’s see. Here are my estimates reduced from industry reports from 2014 so to as reflect Suncor’s massive cost-cutting and lay-offs: (All in CAD per Bbl)
1. exploration costs not included in lifting costs: ~$0.25
2. Non-income related taxes: ~$4.75
3. Depreciation: this is tough due to the drop in the CAD as much equipment and parts are produced in the USA: ~$20.00 (similar to the reported cost in 2014: I am assuming reduced wear and tear)
4. SG&A, R&D slashed to ~$0.75
5. Financial costs: ~$2.50 (slightly lower than 2014)

Suncor’s total cost of production is:
Lifting cost: ~$27.00 (let’s believe their estimate)
Other costs: ~$28.00

By drastically reducing their workforce and lowering production, in 2015, the real operating costs of Suncor now run ~$55.00 (CAD)/Bbl, considerably less than their reported total costs of $67.14(CAD)/Bbl in 2014

#190 Mark on 01.05.16 at 11:51 am

“If you have a variable rate mortgage, you might get some of the rate cut passed to you – which is better than nothing.”

Oh I’m sure. But the banks have shown a willingness to also screw their variable rate customers by manipulating “Prime” to their benefit. Dishonestly citing their cost of funding, rather than the rising risk premia applicable to consumer lending.

Very few Canadian consumer borrowers have the ability to actually fix their borrowing costs to an independent variable rate benchmark. Which is unfortunate. I am able to with my stock brokerage account, which has been a nice luxury to have, but rank and file Canadian consumer borrowers will likely not benefit from future BoC policy action.

Are you trying to say that there are no parks in Burnaby,because that would be one of your craziest statements yet.

maps.google.com is your friend here.

#191 For those about to flop... on 01.05.16 at 11:54 am

#166 gut check on 01.05.16 at 8:22 am
Here’s my spooky outlook:

We’re no longer looking at being a production based economy in fact we’re targeting the opposite.

Canada is counting on the health sector now, and you know what that needs in order to flourish?
Well, illness, of course. And lots of it.

/////////////////////////////////////////
From my personal experiences the last 5 years or so I think the Silver Tsunami could sink the healthcare system in Canada.
Wait times are out of control and hospitals like Mount St Joseph and St. Paul’s are in desperate need of update.
I know there has been talk of building a new hospital at Main and Terminal area but it is too late now in regards to catching the leading edge off the boomer generation.
I can’t even imagine what wait times will be in 5/10 years as recently have had to wait 14 months for a MRI
10 months for a ct scan ,18 months to see a specialist amongst other things.
I tried to get one of the procedures done privately. To have the exact same Dr do it was only a 2 week wait but they wanted $7500 which I thought was excessive but you skip the line.
Health care in Canada could have used 2.6 billion dollars worth of help,it’s a pity we gave it to Indonesia to fight global warming instead.

M41BC

#192 Aggregator on 01.05.16 at 12:05 pm

The real question then becomes when will Vancouver prices catch up to Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Beijing prices.

LOL.. ya and when Van and TO catch up to Hong Kong, who are they going to sell to when there's no sales?

#193 Russ on 01.05.16 at 12:14 pm

#63 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 8:11 pm
Need a word that describes a character that has the maturity level of a 15 year old, balls bigger than Chuck Yager, views the world through the eyes of a verial 19 year old male, trapped in a 56 year old broken and a self abused body.

Bet that word has yet to be invented.
=========================

Just call him jack, as in Jack Sparrow.

#194 Ontario debt up double in 8 years on 01.05.16 at 12:16 pm

http://www.torontosun.com/2016/01/05/were-drowning-in-government-debt

#195 Leo Trollstoy on 01.05.16 at 12:37 pm

All you currency traders are hilarious. It’s simple. Lemme splain it fo u. Ppl who recognized that the USD was a steal 2 yrs ago are converting today and making $1.4 CAD. Ppl who didn’t, will wait 20 yrs to make 0.00007%. Sinple eh? Nuff said. Money in mah poket.

#196 Mark on 01.05.16 at 12:43 pm

“Suncor’s total cost of production is:
Lifting cost: ~$27.00 (let’s believe their estimate)
Other costs: ~$28.00”

I don’t disagree. And that’s why GAAP accounting forces these charges to be taken. Such that their reported profitability reflects the long-term capital inputs employed in their generation of cash.

Compare and contrast this with the REIT industry’s BS metric of “AFFO” which basically ignores depreciation and down-plays other costs.

I guess the point is, companies like Suncor, CNQ, etc., are still generating cashflow at these oil prices. They’re still investing. Its not sunshine and lollipops like it was in the not-so-distant past, but neither those companies, nor Canada, will fall off a cliff anytime soon. If anything, with the oilsands projects, depreciation is front-loaded and the projects have very low decline rates.

Contrast this with the US shale sector which wasn’t even profitable at $70-$80/barrel, and for which the wells deplete in a matter of 1-2 years. In such context, the investment in Canada is far more sustainable than US shale production.

Similar numbers and problem in the gold mining sector. Huge upside in both O&G and the gold mining sector as production decreases and prices inevitably return. But it could be a while for both, who knows?

#197 Godth on 01.05.16 at 12:46 pm

#167 The American on 01.05.16 at 8:54 am

…and while you’re strutting around like a peacock here’s something for you to preen over:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TN6InTMWt7Q

#198 For those about to flop... on 01.05.16 at 12:51 pm

Are you trying to say that there are no parks in Burnaby,because that would be one of your craziest statements yet.

maps.google.com is your friend here.

////////////////////////////////////
I will try again since my first salvo went over your head.
You insisted that the population density in Hong Kong was much more than what it really is because of “parkland”
If you are going to do this for Hong Kong ,you have to do it for the other side of the coin as well.
Unless you know something I don’t know ,like they are going to start building condos in Central Park.
You can’t have it both ways.

M41BC

#199 For those about to flop... on 01.05.16 at 1:00 pm

Not to sure why people feel the constant need to compare cities.
You know what city Vancouver reminds me of…Vancouver,
San Francisco reminds me of San Francisco,
New York reminds me of…

M41BC

#200 For those about to flop... on 01.05.16 at 1:19 pm

B.C assessment for the house I rent.
2016…$1,439,000
Up from $ 1,161,000 in 2015.
Dunno what else to say…

M41BC

#201 bdy sktrn on 01.05.16 at 1:31 pm

HK is an insanely overcrowded, dirty, ultra expensive, cramped, rat race.(or so i hear.) But opportunity calls.

Van by comparison is a greenest oasis paradise of wide open spaces.

friends have moved both ways – some native hk’s here in bc, while native bc, uwo trained, canuck friend has been there (in hk) for 18 years for the mon-ey.

all agree life sucks there compared to here. (except in business)

#202 James2 on 01.05.16 at 1:36 pm

#63 Smoking Man on 01.04.16 at 8:11 pm

Need a word that describes a character that has the maturity level of a 15 year old, balls bigger than Chuck Yager, views the world through the eyes of a verial 19 year old male, trapped in a 56 year old broken and a self abused body.

Bet that word has yet to be invented.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I was thinking Delirium tremens?

#203 Toronto_CA on 01.05.16 at 1:43 pm

#186 Housing is Global on 01.05.16 at 11:43 am wrote:
“Toronto IS like NYC, but safer with free medical.”

Are you trolling now? That’s cute. Garth, where do you find these clowns? Yes, Toronto is exactly like NYC. In fact I recently mistook Dundas Square for Times Square. Give your head a shake.

Just because a moronic person spends $60 million dollars on a West Side Van hamsion does not mean that Vancouver has anything on Silicon Valley.

The people in Miami and Vegas and Phoenix had much better arguments about why their cities were special in a Global way before their prices collapsed in on themselves like dying stars.

#204 Julia on 01.05.16 at 1:57 pm

#191 For those about to flop…
“I can’t even imagine what wait times will be in 5/10 years as recently have had to wait 14 months for a MRI
10 months for a ct scan ,18 months to see a specialist amongst other things.
I tried to get one of the procedures done privately. To have the exact same Dr do it was only a 2 week wait but they wanted $7500 which I thought was excessive but you skip the line.”

I needed an MRI recently in Toronto. My appointment was scheduled 6 months out so I looked at private. $895 for a basic MRI, up to $2,500 for more comprehensive. $400US in Buffalo, NY. Quite affordable really.

Ended up getting bumped up the list and had my MRI within a few weeks at 1am. These things run 24h.

#205 fancy_pants on 01.05.16 at 1:58 pm

#188 Herb on 01.05.16 at 11:50 am

so you and your step brother can enlighten us with federal gov’t blunders but it is faus pas of me that I suggest the Ontario fiberals have not done harm. thanks for the insight professor.

#206 bdy sktrn on 01.05.16 at 2:06 pm

#200 For those about to flop… on 01.05.16 at 1:19 pm
B.C assessment for the house I rent.
2016…$1,439,000
Up from $ 1,161,000 in 2015.
Dunno what else to say…

M41BC
———————
you might start checking out craigslist. or offer more rent to stay there. who ever owns the place just got almost 300,000 more reasons to flog it and retire.

hope you can stay though.

most of the friends in our hood who rented got bounced out starting as long as 10 years ago.

#207 jess on 01.05.16 at 2:08 pm

#170 Estrella on 01.05.16 at 9:42 am
how about the inflated “fake” food
… where’s the REAL olive oil and mafia free?

http://www.oliveoiltimes.com/tag/olive-oil-fraud

‘Disturbing’ drug-resistant superbug gene has been detected in Canada | Toronto Star

——————–
…”every bank in Europe now has to declare how much tax it pays in which country.

but banks can use historical losses limitlessly to offset against any profits they choose to allocate to London.
===================
In Other People’s Money: The Real Business of Finance, economist John Kay banks have three other main routes to make profits: “fiscal arbitrage is playing games avoiding tax; regulatory arbitrage is about doing in one country what is forbidden in others; accounting arbitrage is about hiding what you are up to.”

=========

Tax fraud trial to lift lid on Wildenstein art-dealing dynasty

“trial of the missing millions”, it raises questions not just about one family but a whole system and style of financial management in opaque offshore trusts. ”

…The trial, which opened on Monday in Paris, will see several members of the wealthy Franco-American family in the dock, accused of hiding hundreds of millions of euros in inheritance money in offshore tax havens”
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/04/wildenstein-art-dealing-dynasty-tax-trial-lift-lid

#208 young & foolish on 01.05.16 at 2:09 pm

“On a positive front, nearly All Canadian banks expect TSX to jump up this year!”

TSX is back to where it was 5 years ago … just a place to park your money (the dividend rate barely compensates for inflation). But the traders and wealth managers on Bay street made their money.

Want to make money blog dogs? Then sell a product or a service.

#209 bill on 01.05.16 at 2:20 pm

I believe the AANZA Club in Vancouver takes Canadian Tire Money at par on Canada Day….

#210 bill on 01.05.16 at 2:32 pm

#175 bdy sktrn on 01.05.16 at 10:27 am
https://www.google.ca/search?q=solar+panel+life&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&gws_rd=cr&ei=pRmMVpTSFcjQjwOWrp6YBQ

#211 standardidiot on 01.05.16 at 2:33 pm

There are 60 billion in new mortgages per year, 40 billion of them won’t be made if not for mortgage ‘insurance’ by governments.

1.3 trillion on outstanding mortgages are paid with interest of 2-3 % instead of 6-7 % which would be the minimum market price based on current economy conditions (oil slump, CAD dive, real inflation, risk premium due to record levels of household debt) so here are 50 billion stolen from savers.

Feds will run 20 billion deficit, Provinces – 30 billion.

Total artificial demand? 140 billion per year that would not be spent if not for governments.

Cutting chunk of it will drive us into severe depression for 15-20 years as we have no legs to stand on in an environment with commodity prices depressed. We can’t compete in manufacturing due to loss of skills and capital misallocation, due to the housing bubble.

Cutting all of it will shrink GDP by 25-30 % immediately with subsequent 2-3 dive per year after that for quite some time. (Think mild form of Greece here)

So artificial demand cannot be cut, even partially, continuing to run the current policies will burn all savings and would exhaust any current and future demand.

To maintain the stability of the financial system in an environment with little or not useful tools is difficult, the only way is to continue with the demise of the currency in a hope that savers will not revolt or inflation will not run high.

We most likely will see combination of relatively high inflation, deficit spending and reduced standard for a while. Until the currency crashes completely.

Then…

Eventual strengthening in CAD could occur only if commodities rally significantly, however there is no easy solution for the peak credit we experience and the long term impact from it would dominate out economic ‘future’ /or the lack of such.

Losing 60 % of one’s savings power specially if on fixed income is a catastrophe for that person.

As for buyers of government bonds at 2 % on 10 years bonds? Don’t worry, we have Mark here who is a buyer at any price.

#212 Ronaldo on 01.05.16 at 2:36 pm

#166 gut check on 01.05.16 at 8:22 am

”Here’s my spooky outlook:

We’re no longer looking at being a production based economy in fact we’re targeting the opposite.

Canada is counting on the health sector now, and you know what that needs in order to flourish?
Well, illness, of course. And lots of it.”

I don’t feel very well today. Is that good for the economy?

#213 young & foolish on 01.05.16 at 2:37 pm

“I am so sick of fellow Canadians thinking our cities are some how the equivalent of New York, London, Tokyo, Paris, Hong Kong.”

They are Canada’s principal cities, and as such, the relative equivalent. The current social trend is toward urbanization, so with people moving to big cities, the demand for housing there remains high.

#214 Bleeding Edge Millennial on 01.05.16 at 2:46 pm

My insane millennial-brained plan is to ride the upcoming financial chaos wave on a portfolio of metals and crypto currencies (BTC & UNO). Metals & cryptos are heavily undervalued and will pump as the CDN $ and TSX plunge in 2016. Will aim to flip metals and cryptos at their peak into preferred bank shares which should be in the toilet along with Canadian real estate.

I agree. Insane. — Garth

#215 espressobob on 01.05.16 at 2:49 pm

OK, so I have nothing better to do today, than beat up mutual funds. Not that this ever gets old.

MERs can drag returns in the worst way.

http://www.globefund.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/GFGAM/20111210/GIPORTFOLIOCARRICK1210?query=%27AGF+Canadian+Bond%27

http://www.moneysense.ca/invest/etfs/what-you-need-to-know-about-mers-and-performance/

ETFs rule.

#216 For those about to flop... on 01.05.16 at 2:57 pm

#204 Julia on 01.05.16 at 1:57 pm
#191 For those about to flop…
“I can’t even imagine what wait times will be in 5/10 years as recently have had to wait 14 months for a MRI
10 months for a ct scan ,18 months to see a specialist amongst other things.
I tried to get one of the procedures done privately. To have the exact same Dr do it was only a 2 week wait but they wanted $7500 which I thought was excessive but you skip the line.”

I needed an MRI recently in Toronto. My appointment was scheduled 6 months out so I looked at private. $895 for a basic MRI, up to $2,500 for more comprehensive. $400US in Buffalo, NY. Quite affordable really.

Ended up getting bumped up the list and had my MRI within a few weeks at 1am. These things run 24h.

///////////////////////////
Hey Julie,yeah a MRI will set you back around the same in Vancouver a little cheaper in Surrey.
The 7500 number was for a surgery not an MRI.
Hope everything worked out well on your end.
Peace

M41BC

#217 Herb on 01.05.16 at 3:08 pm

#205 fancy_pants,

I don’t have a step-brother, have not mentioned federal blunders, and you certainly have not suggested that “the Ontario fiberals have not done harm.”

Sorry, but I don’t don’t get your point.

#218 For those about to flop... on 01.05.16 at 3:08 pm

#206 bdy sktrn on 01.05.16 at 2:06 pm
#200 For those about to flop… on 01.05.16 at 1:19 pm
B.C assessment for the house I rent.
2016…$1,439,000
Up from $ 1,161,000 in 2015.
Dunno what else to say…

M41BC
———————
you might start checking out craigslist. or offer more rent to stay there. who ever owns the place just got almost 300,000 more reasons to flog it and retire.

hope you can stay though.

most of the friends in our hood who rented got bounced out starting as long as 10 years ago.

///////////////////////////////////
The landlord lives upstairs ,my wife and I rent the ” garden suite” downstairs.
I know that they have no intention of moving at the moment but things could change as their health declines.
I am only 6 ft 2 but I don’t think I could handle living in a true basement suite.
I have been to a few parties and apart from my head hitting the bulkhead just the feeling of visual stranglement was enough for me.

M

#219 bdy sktrn on 01.05.16 at 3:12 pm

christy cheaped out and moved the grant level to 1.2m.

extra 570/yr tax for much of east van

#220 bdy sktrn on 01.05.16 at 3:23 pm

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16452285/1740-KITCHENER-STREET-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V5L2W3

just walked by this beauty, first time i have seen the sign but i have been away for a week.

5 years ago this was 900k
3 years ago this was 1.05m
today ask is 1.6m

land value only

mark’s mix is all mixed-up.

#221 Yaley on 01.05.16 at 3:26 pm

“The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reported Tuesday that home sales hit their highest annual total in recorded history with 42,326 transactions, a 27.8 per cent increase from the year before. Sales were up 48.4 per cent from 2013.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/metro+vancouver+housing+market+sets+sales+record+2015+prices+keep/11632025/story.html?__lsa=e2a6-331b

#222 Julia on 01.05.16 at 3:46 pm

#216 For those about to flop…
“Hey Julie,yeah a MRI will set you back around the same in Vancouver a little cheaper in Surrey.
The 7500 number was for a surgery not an MRI.
Hope everything worked out well on your end.
Peace”

Got it. So far so good for me, thanks. Lesson learned though: sh$t can surprise you at any time and any age.
Yet another reason for people to not overextend themselves. It’s very easy when you are young to think that you are immune to illness and job loss.

#223 jess on 01.05.16 at 3:48 pm

midlife mortality rates
A serious concern is that those currently in midlife will age into Medicare in worse health than the currently elderly.

Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white
non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century
Anne Case and Angus Deaton
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs and Department of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
Contributed by Angus Deaton, September 17, 2015 (sent for review August 22, 2015; reviewed by David Cutler, Jon Skinner, and David Weir

…” increasing death rates from drug and alcohol poison-
ings, suicide, and chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis..”

http://www.pnas.org/content/112/49/15078.full.pdf

#224 gut check on 01.05.16 at 3:49 pm

The Illness Economy is not the same as the Health Care economy, though. What I’m seeing is a move to churn out sick people in perpetuity (GMOs, vaccinations, increasing mental health categories, pollution, wifi induced illnesses, etc) and then offer to sell us pills.

It’s a racket like anything else.

Where I live they’ve been wooing the biotech industry for years and yet I couldn’t tell you one positive thing that’s come out of it. I’m sure there have been a handful of jobs but there is still a doctor shortage here, long wait times, and a bed space problem (like everywhere else, I guess)

I’m sure a group of teens could solve some of the Health Care issues if they were given the chance – the solutions are obvious. However, like I said, I don’t think they want to solve it.

Sickness is the new Consumerism.

#225 Mark on 01.05.16 at 3:56 pm

“As for buyers of government bonds at 2 % on 10 years bonds? Don’t worry, we have Mark here who is a buyer at any price.”

I’ve not advocated buying government bonds (to any extent in excess of balanced portfolio allocations). However, 2% could potentially be a lot better than losing 5%+ a year in housing (or worse). In an economic slow-down, the tendency is for investors to allocate their funds increasingly to the least risky and most liquid asset classes on “Exeter’s pyramid”, and government debt (and the USD$) tends to rank pretty high. People do very strange things when they’re in a preservation-of-capital mode. Like buying gold, for example.

#226 For those about to flop... on 01.05.16 at 4:14 pm

#222 Julia on 01.05.16 at 3:46 pm
#216 For those about to flop…
“Hey Julie,yeah a MRI will set you back around the same in Vancouver a little cheaper in Surrey.
The 7500 number was for a surgery not an MRI.
Hope everything worked out well on your end.
Peace”

Got it. So far so good for me, thanks. Lesson learned though: sh$t can surprise you at any time and any age.
Yet another reason for people to not overextend themselves. It’s very easy when you are young to think that you are immune to illness and job loss.

//////////////////////////////////////////
You got that right for sure.
A month ago I had a job and was on the waiting list for surgery.
I lost my job ,through the company shutting down and then was called up for surgery because someone cancelled just before Xmas.
I am on here partly to help my money go further but someone said I am spending to much time on here,maybe I should just stick my head back in the sand and play Candy Crush instead!
Peace.

M41BC

#227 OXI in GREECE on 01.05.16 at 4:19 pm

#188 Herb on 01.05.16 at 11:50 am
#162 fancy_pants (and other striped-pant diehards),

“Ontario manufacturing has been gutted by 10 years of provincial liberal rule.”

It couldn’t possibly be that manufacturing in Ontario has fallen victim to the legally-sanctioned vice of greed, with all corporations and business operations maximizing profits/shareholder value by, among other cost-cutting improvements, lowering labour costs through out-sourcing/off-shoring?

Naw, far easier to blame a government, any government, that really can’t do a thing except provide support to corporations (shouldn’t this be decried as “socialist”?) and perhaps liberate business from any contribution to the cost of government. The alternative, get into a profitable line of business or lower your expectations, would be unthinkable.

Was “What’s good for General Motors is good for the country” ever really good for the country? Can’t expect an objective answer, but the ideology-serving replies are obvious.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Govt can impost HUGE duties on the imports of those “off shore jobs in China” if it wants to.

The govt CHOOSES not to. It only cares about big business which is why we live in a FASCIST society because govt/corp relationships is what the definition of fascism is. But of course you will never hear that in skoool, the gubermint or the main slime media.

#228 rvs on 01.05.16 at 4:48 pm

Well, well this is a bit hard to believe… you got the USD right (although u have no clue why it’s so “strong”… hint, it’s not the smoke a mirrors recovery you preach about).

And for the love of god… my keyboard can’t any more after the “strong USD” is causing the poor manufacturing numbers (perhaps you were busy in Stratford when media covered that corporate greed moving everything offshore story) comment.

Must be some ‘good stuff’ floating around the downtown office monoliths!

#229 S.Bby on 01.05.16 at 5:01 pm

Just another night in the hood:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/shootout-surrey-crash-delta-1.3389582?cmp=rss

#230 jess on 01.05.16 at 5:02 pm

..” A top-ranking lottery official was recently convicted of gaming the main lottery computer’s random number generator for years and the investigation is now expanding to several other states. But, of course, while the Lottery Association’s top security official got away with it for some six years, you needn’t be worried at all about election insiders gaming computer results tabulators, right?”
http://bradblog.com/?p=11484

“Dec 18, 11:02 AM (ET)

By RYAN J. FOLEY and DAVID PIT
…” a lottery industry insider installs an undetectable software program in the computers that pick winning numbers so he can know them in advance. He enlists accomplices to play those numbers and collect the jackpots. And they enrich themselves for years until a misstep unravels their high-tech scheme.

Eddie Tipton, former security director of the Multi-State Lottery Association, has been accused of tampering with drawings in four states over a six-year period, and investigators are now expanding the inquiry nationwide to determine if the number could be larger.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/lottery-executive-director-charles-strutt-removed-from-post-amid-jackpot-fixing-scandal/

#231 For those about to flop... on 01.05.16 at 5:03 pm

Hey IHCTD9,you would probably like this one as we have talked before about ways to make/save money.
I am housebound at the moment but I put a heap of things on eBay and Craigslist as a way to help my wife with the rent.
People come around and buy stuff we don’t use/need ,I just collect the cash.
Some good stuff,but people will buy anything if the price is right.
I got $20 for some old Disney vhs,s that had been in the garage for a decade.
I got $ 120 for some of my wife’s tragic 90s boyband CDs
Good riddance I say!

M41BC

#232 Abolitionist on 01.05.16 at 5:04 pm

RE: #191 For those about to flop… on 01.05.16 at 11:54 am

Just returned from a trip to Indonesia… Everyone asked where we were from. Not a single one knew or gave a damn that JT & the Libs just gave them billions of dollars on my behalf.

BTW, I strongly do not recommend Indonesia as a destination unless you are an Aussie who is 3 hours away by plane. The most aggressive pan handlers and “taksi” drivers by far of any country I’ve experienced, worse than Mexicans, Jamaicans, and Dominicans combined.

There was some good snorkeling (some of the corral hasn’t yet bleached) and the Komodo dragons were neat to see. Unfortunately the locals on Komodo Island will hound you to buy their trinkets to the point you wish you had been attacked by a dragon.

Fun fact: komodos have 2 penises.

Smoking Man should consider adopting one as a mascot.

#233 JB on 01.05.16 at 5:31 pm

20% in US? That’s it? I had no money until about 4 years ago (just finished school and was in my early 30s), but then I got some inheritance money. Put half in TFSA, almost all as USA stocks, and the other half in Canadian stocks, regular marginal account. For the first 3 years I was convinced that I had it backwards, but TFSA is doing quite well now!

#234 For those about to flop... on 01.05.16 at 5:43 pm

#232 Abolitionist on 01.05.16 at 5:04 pm
RE: #191 For those about to flop… on 01.05.16 at 11:54 am

Just returned from a trip to Indonesia… Everyone asked where we were from. Not a single one knew or gave a damn that JT & the Libs just gave them billions of dollars on my behalf.

BTW, I strongly do not recommend Indonesia as a destination unless you are an Aussie who is 3 hours away by plane. The most aggressive pan handlers and “taksi” drivers by far of any country I’ve experienced, worse than Mexicans, Jamaicans, and Dominicans combined.

There was some good snorkeling (some of the corral hasn’t yet bleached) and the Komodo dragons were neat to see. Unfortunately the locals on Komodo Island will hound you to buy their trinkets to the point you wish you had been attacked by a dragon.

Fun fact: komodos have 2 penises.

Smoking Man should consider adopting one as a mascot.

//////////////////////////////////////////
Yeah I heard some horror stories from some buddies about Indonesia as I grew up in Oz.
Its a favourite destination for end of season sports team trips but I never went.
I guess most Aussies view it as our version of Hawaii.
I will probably go one day but I have other countries higher up the bucket list.
It’s not fun being hassled on holiday ,but I always ask myself what would I do in their shoes.
Peace.

M41BC

#235 Forty-Eight on 01.05.16 at 8:08 pm

Where’d you get the R2 ringtone?

#236 Julia on 01.05.16 at 8:41 pm

#231 For those about to flop…

I use Kijiji myself. We (read: my husband) accumulate way too much. I agree. Price things right and stuff sells quickly.
He gets worried when I start gathering stuff, taking pictures and posting LOL

#237 learningfromyou on 01.06.16 at 5:34 pm

#60 Mark
Please could you explain how you calculated the inflation?

Not long time ago I was able to get the Tuna cans for 69 cents now I pay for them 1.05 in special

Like realtors data I have a hard time swallowing these inflation values

#238 SquareNinja on 01.07.16 at 6:07 pm

#165 Mark on 01.05.16 at 8:14 am

Thank you so much for the reply!