El Predicto

CATS modified

Things that will happen (probably, I think) in 2016:

  • The average schmuck makes no money whatsoever on real estate in Montreal, Halifax, Oakville, London, or Victoria.
  • Canada slumps into negative growth until the spring, maybe even the summer.
  • Properties in Winnipeg, that flat, cold, boring province next door, plus Atlantic Canada outside of the HRM lose value.
  • Canada gets a national carbon tax. Liz May’s head explodes.
  • A property tax revolt starts brewing in the Lower Mainland after assessments flame higher just as house value start wobbling.
  • Calgary stays a disaster for anyone trying to sell a house. Street prices (not realtor prices) drop by double-digits.
  • The commercial vacancy rate in Cowtown passes 20%. Oil nears thirty bucks before it stabilizes – but below the level needed to stem fat job losses.
  • Five-year mortgage rates end the year 1% higher.
  • Moist Millennials and agents of the Bank of Mom create a pre-Valentine’s Day buying orgy, trying to beat the Morneau Rules on down payments.
  • As a result average prices in the GTA and YVR spin to a new record high. It will be the last one. Ever.
  • The TSX does not lose 11%. In fact, it outperforms the S&P 500 as commodities eventually creep back.
  • 2016 becomes the Year of Tax Avoidance for all the 1%ers, despite anti-incorporation measures announced in the spring federal budget.
  • A 1% increase in the HST is put off until 2017 by the T2 cabinet. You never hear about it.
  • The dollar slides briefly below 70 cents US. Most investors miss a once-in-a-generation chance to convert their US$ at $1.50.
  • Donald Trump becomes the Republican nominee, then blows up.
  • T2 mulls gender parity for the CFL.
  • Muclair quits. Rona ascends. Hillary wins. Notley withers.
  • Canada runs a deficit approaching $20 billion. Boomers are appalled. Their spawn, who actually have to finance it, don’t notice.
  • After dithering over a swampy economy for ten months the Bank of Canada raises its key rate on the 29th anniversary of the greatest stock market crash (22%) – Wednesday, October 19th.
  • ISIS shocks everybody.
  • Canadian household debt breaks more records. The finance minister tut-tuts, then does nothing about it.
  • Apple buys Tesla. Lululemon’s sold. Bombardier staggers.
  • The most popular baby names in Canada are Justin and Justina.
  • PostMedia implodes. Nobody cares.
  • GreaterFool receives an Order of Canada on the condition it becomes a dog-dating site.
  • We accept.

273 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 01.01.16 at 6:02 pm

Furst in NY? When the levee breaks..

#2 Paul on 01.01.16 at 6:04 pm

Well no one can say you didn’t put it out there.

Here’s mine I am going to lose weight !
But fail!

#3 Future Expatiate on 01.01.16 at 6:10 pm

LOVING your Trump prediction.

Agreed. By his own plan.

#4 Hotdogs from Heaven on 01.01.16 at 6:11 pm

And inflation exceeds 5% by the third quarter.

#5 S.Bby on 01.01.16 at 6:11 pm

Convert US$ at $1.50.

Noted. Thanks.

#6 Panhead on 01.01.16 at 6:12 pm

Looks like Garth’s switched over to cat’s … this ain’t gonna end well …

M??BringCash

#7 Love my Kia on 01.01.16 at 6:16 pm

Happy new year!

You forgot to mention the cost of consumables going up. Bought myself a smart tv 65″ knowing they will be a lot more $ next year.

Will take your advice on converting some USD. Thanks!

#8 Freedom First on 01.01.16 at 6:29 pm

Question?

Everyone knows I sold out of the oil and gas sector in 2014 at the high, as I wrote here when I did it. Everyone also knows I took a nibble in the last few months by buying the ETF ZEO as I also wrote here when I did so.

My question is, I looked at the ETF HNY, as the dawgs were talking about it. Now, how can HNY have a yield of 17.5%, and a Beta of only .369? I am very underweight the oil and gas sector, is HNY a buy?

007FF

#9 Smoking Man on 01.01.16 at 6:30 pm

2016

BOC drops over night rate to 0.25 in Jan

Smoking Man publishes his book. 60 sales he’s over the moon.

The Donald becomes president of USA.

USDCAD 1.50 maybe even 1.60

ISIS is a creation of neocons becomes public knowledge.

President Trump wastes no time, rounds up the Neocons puts them All on trial for 911.

President Trump breaks up MSM into a thousand pieces from the current 5.

Smoking Man pursude and hunted down by angre lesbians.

Isreal forms an alliance with Putin and Iran. Says screw the USA. That make nice with the palisinians, OK that’s a streach. But I kind of see it. Lot more good people in that country than the internet gives them credit for. NutAndYahoo gone.

Saudi Arabia and Quitar, Turkey get nuke by accident.

Smoking man, has a one nighter with Sheryl Valentine. She so discusted by his lack of performance and selfishness, she outs him on Greater fool, and publishes his address so the lesbians can find him and eat him alive.

Wyett, finally figures out, you shit in the backyard rather than on my Persian rug, on my side of the bed, right where I generally step to get into bed.

My thub is getting sore, I could go on.

#10 Randy Randerson on 01.01.16 at 6:31 pm

Got it GT, will convert some of my USD nti CDN this year when the loonie drops more. Also will buy some TSX, since it was badly beatened up in 2015. You know what they say about but low sell high.

#11 JSS on 01.01.16 at 6:38 pm

I predict TSX @14,300 by end of 2016, around 10% more than we ended 2015 at.

I predict Alberta’s unemployment rate to rise to 9%.

I predict a banner year for all KIA vehicles.

#12 Retired Boomer WI on 01.01.16 at 6:43 pm

Happy New Year!

Gee, sounds rather grim, in total. You are right on the oil price, and CDN $. Hope the rest has a bit more to cheer over as the year ages.

A dog dating site? Who knew?

#13 Cici on 01.01.16 at 6:46 pm

How did you get that photo of me Garth? Did you hack my cell phone? Love you as I do, I’m still going to have to sue. Besides, now the boyfriend’s mad at me (he wanted dogs, babies and guaranteed cooking and cleaning services)…

Great predictions, by the way…right down to the lame baby names! I’m already feeling bad for all of those as of yet unborn Justin and Justinas.

#14 DR. WAYNE on 01.01.16 at 6:46 pm

Some funny stuff … if it weren’t true …

#15 loonieboidz on 01.01.16 at 6:47 pm

•The dollar slides briefly below 70 cents US. Most investors miss a once-in-a-generation chance to convert their US$ at $1.50.

Sorry not following….are you saying the loonie goes to .6667…..why will most investors miss this?

#16 rgz on 01.01.16 at 6:47 pm

Will you revisit these at years end to see how accurate they turn out?

Of course not. — Garth

#17 Goldie on 01.01.16 at 6:50 pm

The only ones who will be “shocked” over ISIS attacks are open borders Libs.

#18 mark on 01.01.16 at 6:53 pm

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Trump pull a big switchy to the centre after the primary and his angle will be “unlike the other losers, I know what it takes to win – I just proved it.”

#19 For those about to flop... on 01.01.16 at 6:53 pm

Things that will happen (probably, I think) in 2016:

* Mark gets one prediction right.

M41BC

#20 David McDonald on 01.01.16 at 6:53 pm

So I should sell American stocks in US dollars when the Canadian dollar hits 66 cents and buy Canadian resource stocks in Canadian dollars. That sounds like a reasonable plan but it’s risky. Predicting the future is hard even for Garth.

#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.01.16 at 6:54 pm

More newspapers fold or go entirely online as Le Journal de Montreal just did……..

#22 james on 01.01.16 at 6:56 pm

The Democrats had better hope Trump blows up. After years of cultural marxism, it amazes me how ‘progressives’ expect black and latino voters to throw their support behind an old, extremely privileged and venal white woman. In fact, polls show Trump is resonating with black voters and even hispanics. Since Romney won 20% of the black male vote running against a incumbent black male president (largely due to his opposition to amnesty), I would not expect Clinton to receive much support at all from thta demographic. This is particularly evident when you consider that illegal immigration is a hot topic in the black community.

#23 Scooter on 01.01.16 at 6:56 pm

Happy new year!

Regarding tax avoidance: As an employee of large corporation with a high salary am I correct in assuming that there is little I can do in the way of tax avoidance? Incorporation is not an option.

#24 TRT on 01.01.16 at 7:00 pm

Wow Garth. I agree on all your predictions except one.

What a start to 2016!

Only one I don’t agree with is YVR prices. You fail to realize the impact of foreign inflows.

Hopefully we can agree 100% on the predictions for 2017.

Cheers.

#25 Workingonepeecenter on 01.01.16 at 7:02 pm

I think the tax avoidance is going to be way bigger than people realize. Most of the other professionals that I work with that I know have only put in a partial tax avoidance effort, myself included. For me part of that was because I felt well paid and able to live comfortably and save for my retirement and the other part is that I have never minded paying my fair share in a progressive way. However, they way that we (I am an Ontario Doctor) have been picked on lately (5-10 percent pay reduction spun as a freeze), tax increase in Ontario a couple years ago, and now Trudeau wanting to punish the rich with more taxes and take away retirement saving vehicles I see my financial security deteriorating unless I really keep as much of my money as possible and cut out parts of my practice with low return on investment. As for the paying my fair share part, the vitriol of people suggesting that people who have worked their butts off and succeeded have held them down and should therefore be made to pay as well as the blatant political wasting of tax revenue has made that feeling evaporate for me. I was not born wealthy but put in effort and took risks to get where I am. I am pissed off enough to put in as much effort as needed to keep my dollars. I have already taken action and many of my colleagues have it top of mind now too – thanks Garth for your very helpful pointers on this blog.

#26 TRT on 01.01.16 at 7:02 pm

When dollar hits near 1.50…convert to Euro’s instead ?

#27 Alberta Blue Blood on 01.01.16 at 7:03 pm

An Alberta provincial sales tax is put off until 2017 by the NDP. You never hear about it.

#28 mauricio on 01.01.16 at 7:05 pm

good forecasting makes you think about all the things that can go sideways..

#29 JO on 01.01.16 at 7:06 pm

Fun forecast:
1. The CAD bottoms out along with the TSX in January before staging powerful multi month upward moves for most of 2016. CAD ends the year at .82 . Tsx ends at above 14500
2. Gold , oil bottom out in Q1 and stage powerful multi month rallies. They will suffer another huge collapse between mid 2017-2019
3. T2 continues to break promises and runs deficits of about 20 b. The global sovereign debt crisis spikes in mid 2017 with Germany and France then Japan then from 2018-2020, Canada and US governments are wiped out
4. Toronto RE median prices peak out March and end end year 10% below the March peak. It is mid 2020s before nominal house prices recover
5. The new carbon taxes, HST increase, wealth taxes, inheritance taxes and shocking increases in local property taxes begin to accelerate the economic collapse toward the end of 2016. Most of these taxes begin to kick in in 2017 but the loss of confidence on announcement begins to hit the economy
6. The unemployment rate begins rising sharply in q4 as the us economy shocks the world and suddenly begins to bleed jobs massively in q2
7. Faced with declining house prices, rising interest rates, rising unemployment, tragic social issues evident as food bank usage and anger rises, Canadians begin to organize protests against taxes and government corruption which grow wildly as we pass 2017
8. Syrian refugees are stopped in mid year as more and more issues arise such as unprovoked attacks and international incidents cause the public to wrongly blame them for the escalating economic problems
9. The Canadian public begins to revolt against this rotten neo liberal junk economy collapsing before their eyes . More and more protests begin all over the country as Albertas protests inspire the rest of the nation
Majority of so called middle class is wiped out as we reach 2020. Most Canadians consider housing the worst thing they have ever bought

#30 Smoking Man on 01.01.16 at 7:07 pm

Amazing, Booth number 2 on the right side of the stage at stir night club at senica always with a sign that says reserved, I sit in it every time, no one kicks me out…

Only costs a 4 Buck tip with every drink.. question is, how many do I drink per visit..

And who are these bearded angels, with hidden side arms that always help me find my room at the end of the night…

Its all about money dogs, good looks and conformity only get you so far. And they fade with time..

If you ain’t a gambler, you have zero shot of getting rich.

Take solace, your former teachers will love your spineless trip to the tax farm, They are happiest when you are on your knees gratfull for the Crumbs tossed your way..

There is a house in the rising sun..you just got to find it on your own…

Fk, it’s only 7pm.. going to be a long night.

#31 CheekyBugger on 01.01.16 at 7:08 pm

“GreaterFool receives an Order of Canada on the condition it becomes a dog-dating site.” – LOL

I think along with that you should start “Turner TurnedOn” site for dogs (and bitches) in committed relationships – similar to Ashley Madison.

– I think my bitch has an itch………

#32 BC Guy on 01.01.16 at 7:09 pm

Good list. I agree with most of your predictions. Here are a few of mine:

– Justin Trudeau challenges Vladimir Putin to a boxing match – and wins!
– a major geo-political event in the middle east causes oil prices to rocket upwards, the Alberta oil patch is saved
– the rally in oil prices causes a rally on the TSX, there are sunshine and ponies on Bay Street again
– Garth’s daily blog features a picture of a dog at least 90% of the time, a cat 5% of the time, and a hot babe and/or good joke the rest of the time
– waves of immigrants and refugees from Syria and the middle east move to Canada’s largest cities, keeping their real estate bubbles going for another year, the average commute time in the GTA cracks 90 minutes one-way
– the average price of a single detached home in Vancouver cracks $1.5 million
– Apple buys Tesla, Google buys Apple, Warren Buffet buys Google, Donald Trump buys Warren Buffet, some anonymous group of Chinese investors buy Donald Trump
– reading, writing, arithmetic, spelling, grammar, punctuation, and hand-writing are no long taught in schools – every kid gets a smart phone in Kindergarten and is taught by a series of awesome apps sold by a conglomerate controlled by Monsanto, Uber, Facebook and Twitter

#33 Md on 01.01.16 at 7:10 pm

Also The greater fool website will crash due to a record number of millennials coming to find out when housing market will crash in gta and van.

#34 Leo Trollstoy on 01.01.16 at 7:14 pm

Convert US$ at $1.50.

Noted. Thanks.

If history is any guide it won’t stay at that level for long.

#35 Kilby on 01.01.16 at 7:19 pm

We are going to have a good year in 2016 despite all the dire predictions. Take the same trips, drink the same wine and scotch.
Our lives are too important to be concerned what T2 is doing daily or whether or not the TSX is up 100 or down 100 like it is all the time. Hope Alberta pulls out of this slump soon, leaner and smarter and a bit more diversified….I hear they have great farmland.

Good luck to everybody here, be happy, be practical and don’t spend the year being consumed by every up and down in real estate and the markets. Don’t spend more than you make, live within your means.

#36 Mike in the basement on 01.01.16 at 7:19 pm

Hi Garth. Love the site. Just like to remind the blog dogs of something you said a while back – I’m not going to look it up or even try to loosely paraphrase it because I am a lazy blog dog. But you said a loss isn’t a loss until you sell it. My maple is doing great because of the dividends, DRIP picking up cheap shares, and a long term investment plan. ZPR is worth a ton less – but it won’t be forever! In the mean time, let the sweet syrup flow!

I would also like to point out that T2 is just normalizing the TFSA limit back to what you supported at the start. If I were 65 and had $5000 x 47 years of contribution room, I’d say that would be amazing. Unfortunately, Canada took this long to create this tax avoidance tool. When the moist millennials are dried up, they’ll have plenty of room to underutilize!

But other than that, keep up the good work! And thanks for the free advice and balanced portfolio suggestions. One day I hope to be able to hire you to manage my 7 figure TFSA portfolio!

#37 Rob on 01.01.16 at 7:27 pm

“T2 mulls gender parity for the CFL.”

Should prove interesting viewing for this “close contact” sport!

#38 Daisy Mae on 01.01.16 at 7:35 pm

Well, I guess we ALL die alone ’cause no one will want to come with us…. ;-)

#39 Capt. Obvious on 01.01.16 at 7:39 pm

Prediction for 2016: You can still set a diversified portfolio on auto pilot and go out and live your life. Nothing terrible will happen.

#40 Smoking Man on 01.01.16 at 7:46 pm

T2 so out lunch, going to So enjoy the destruction of his followers. he’s clueless. so are they.

Popcorn, Wine, and tree huggers on the floor like being shot in the nuts, crying like infants…

This new generation so emasculated. So dumb down…

Mrs crabbush your English teacher, kill her before she dies.. atleased you can have something to feel good about.

Not going to end well for Butts. And his minions..

Well sorry that was wrong…Butts is going to make out like a smoking man…

T2 not so good..

#41 Bram on 01.01.16 at 7:46 pm

#16 rgz on 01.01.16 at 6:47 pm

Will you revisit these at years end to see how accurate they turn out?

We can do that for him, for his 1yr old predictions of course. In my opinion, he was reasonably accurate.
Let me quote the Garth from late dec 2014:


So, expect this in 2015: A surging US dollar Y, putting downward pressure on commodity valuesY. A robust and growing American stock market, taking the Dow and the S&P to new heightsN. Higher interest ratesY, as the Fed moves to contain the party in the next three or four monthsN. And all of this will help some Canadian industries (especially as our dollar weakens more), like the lumber guysY. But because so much of our condo economy is real estate-based, overall, prepare for more stumbles.

For investors, there are many implications. Like, gambling on oil could wipe you out.Y Also, the Canadian portion of your portfolio could disappointY, so it’s too bad that 70% of all investors here have 100% in Canadians assets.

6/8 is a nice score, I would say. Let’s see how accurate his 2016 prediction turns out. FWIW: His prophesied lower YVR RE never happened. May not happen in ’16 either.

Bram

#42 OXI in GREECE on 01.01.16 at 7:48 pm

If the giant fat bloated inefficient govt introduces a Phony BS Carbon Tax – all that will happen is the economy will get worse as no one goes out and the underground economy gets bigger – AKA British Columbia

But we are talking about govt – the dumbest company in the world so……

#43 Daisy Mae on 01.01.16 at 7:49 pm

Don Pitts’ predictions, CBC http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/2016-economic-problems-1.3384424

#44 joblo on 01.01.16 at 7:52 pm

“PostMedia implodes. Nobody cares.”

Venture a guess the retirees and pension plan care?
Anywho, is it a short? HA.
Went up 60% last trade (+$.09) now 24 cents total volume 6002 shares whoopee!

#45 Mark on 01.01.16 at 7:52 pm

My predictions:

1. The Liberal government proves to be far less a friend of expansion in spending and the civil service as originally thought. Justin, in order to make up for a substantial loss of tax revenue on account of the slowing economy, is forced into significant civil service cuts. Premiers Wynne and Notley also gain religion and start cutbacks.

2. Housing price declines in all major Canadian cities continue their trend downwards into their 3rd post-peak year. The sales mix shift in Toronto/Vancouver runs out of steam and even the delusional Realtors realize the gig is up and start talking the market down.

3. The Fed cuts to -0.25% on account of the weakening US economy. The Bank of Canada goes down to 0%. Oil goes up to $45, but investment in the Alberta oilpatch and the US shale patch is still toast.

4. The precious metals sector starts to show some signs of life after being in a 5-year-long bear market. The few juniors that didn’t dilute the heck out of their existing shareholders double. Large-cap gold is the best performing sector on the TSX which touches a new high in the low 16,000 range.

5. Advertised interest rates on mortgage loans remain the same as today, but very few borrowers actually qualify for those ‘best’ rates. Hoardes of Canadian’s whose mortgages are up for renewal sign the renewal letter with the ‘posted rate’ rather than tell the bank about their job loss or other poor circumstances.

6. CAD$ goes back to $0.85-$0.90, on account of speculators exhausting themselves in their hatred of the CAD$. CPI teeters around 0%, on account of the rising CAD$ and significantly truncated domestic demand.

7. CBC starts a new reality TV series called “Bankruptcy Trustee” chronicling the professional activities of a big-city bankruptcy trustee. Hoardes of Canadians get an education on what a ‘fraudulent conveyance’ is.

#46 Interstellar Old Yeller on 01.01.16 at 7:55 pm

Fun list! Wish I had USD to convert. Happy new year, everyone!

#47 I am the Babblemaster on 01.01.16 at 8:00 pm

As a result average prices in the GTA and YVR spin to a new record high. It will be the last one. Ever. – Garth

—————————————————————

Maybe they won’t be rising the they way they have in the past, but they won’t come down either.

#48 JSS on 01.01.16 at 8:11 pm

BTW, chick in the pic looks pretty hot. Just curious what her face looks like. Garth, can you put up a full selfie of her?

#49 lore on 01.01.16 at 8:15 pm

I agree with Smoking Man, in that if you work for a living, you’re in trouble. If you are not either a highly paid professional, which means LOTS of education and time spent on the job, or work for the gov’t, in which case you get a pension, backed by a non pensioned private sector, you had better take calculated risks, work everywhere and anywhere you can…forget about fancy houses, just create a good home for you and your family…Oh yeah, get life insurance. And pray you don’t get sick, or worse, outlive your money. My predictions..Baby boomers get older and weaker and poorer, as life gets more expensive and their kids are stressed. Gov’t wastes more taxpayers hard earned money.. becomes even more inefficient and can’t keep pace with a real world economy. Entrepreneurial spirit flags as the countries youth opt for an easier, softer life..i.e. get a gov’t job or leave the country. Govt gets bigger and more expensive. Alberta oil never comes back unless Canada finds the nation builders we need in the 21st century..US cherry picks our depressed industries, real estate, commodities…

#50 lore on 01.01.16 at 8:17 pm

http://www.taxpayer.com/news-releases/pension-gap-astounding-in-canada

#51 nonplused on 01.01.16 at 8:18 pm

Gender parity in the CFL, ha ha. Mind you most of the players are American and I’ve seen American women who could definitely play on the line.

If Hilary wins the presidency then you can shut this blog down. The nuclear winter will start before 2017 is out so finances really don’t matter.

Glam boy might very well impose a carbon tax. Since a carbon tax is really just a “GST on everything”, there really isn’t a better way to raise taxes on the poor in the midst of a general recession. Perfect. I mean it would be a lot simpler to just raise the GST but then think of all the government jobs that wouldn’t be created to collect the new carbon tax.

I realize it was tongue in cheek but there is no way anyone, let alone Apple, is buying Telsa. Telsa is just a big money pit where government subsidies go to die. The haven’t ever made money and they never will. Running cars on electricity makes no sense whatsoever and never will as long as the electricity comes mostly from hydrocarbon burning plants which it will for the foreseeable future. Due to all the line losses, generation losses, charging and discharging losses, etc. it will remain more efficient and less polluting to put the hydrocarbons straight in the vehicle for a considerable time. Even if we plastered every roof in NA with solar panels there are better uses for that electricity than running cars. That’s why electric cars haven’t been a thing before. They are too inefficient once the whole power cycle has been considered and that isn’t going to get better any time soon. Hybrids are a different animal the regenerative breaking actually does improve mileage by recovering waste energy. But so would better roads so we weren’t stopping every 2 blocks. Of course some would argue “well then why are trains diesel-electric”. The main reason of course is because of the extreme torque that the electric motors can produce at low speeds and the elimination of the gear box. Having to shift gears and clutch and all that in a multi-engine train would not be ideal. Imagine if all 4 engines at the front of a train had an 18 speed transmission like a tractor trailer does. What a nightmare. So anyway my point is why would anybody want to purchase Tesla? The technology might be useful once the entire power grid was fueled by thorium reactors but nobody is building them. That day is at least 30 probably 50 years away if the technology even works.

Bombardier is not going to stager they are going to fall flat on their faces like a drunk. They are already surviving on government bailouts now.

#52 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 01.01.16 at 8:22 pm

Lurching means going from crisis to crisis or jeering ahead. Is that how you see the US moving? Based on final sales, industrial production and inventories or any forward looking stat, the US is anemic.

Glad to see you have hedged your bets on the TSX and the US $. Would not want to diversify into the US now if the TSX will outperform and the Canadian $ is bottoming.

#53 Dee on 01.01.16 at 8:26 pm

Hey, happy new year, everyone. I’m gonna tell a little story from my life that seems especially relevant right about now. For background, I’m a US-Canadian dual citizen, born in the US, immigrated here just under a decade ago.

In 2005, at 23 years old, I bought a condo in Seattle. I had no business doing so, but everyone told me it was a great idea — my Boomer parents were so proud, my coworkers cheered me on, everyone talked about how real estate only goes up. I mean, it’s Seattle–there’s only so much land, there are constantly new immigrants, it’s different here, everyone wants to be here. Clearly it’s only going up. (…sound familiar?) Plus, this was in the city core, in one of the most desirable neighbourhoods, so even if the shit hits the fan, prices won’t fall that much!

When I say I had no business doing so, I had basically no savings, but did have access to a first-time homebuyers program through the state. They not only allowed 100% LTV, they cosigned a second mortgage that covered my closing costs, allowing me to move in for actually nothing. On paper I could handle the monthly, and even the ratios looked good (making $60k/year, the two mortgages combined to $165k, a ratio of 2.75). Cool, right?

Fast forward two years to 2007. I’ve paid a little extra on top of the monthly, and now the mortgages are at about 99% LTV. And, like so many people in 2007, I lost my job. No fault of my own; the economy was falling apart, and my employer went out of business. Worse, I couldn’t find anything in my field. IT in Seattle, man, companies failing left and right and even if a job did open, thousands of applicants were at the door. I had no real savings, I had a pile of student loans, and I was already living paycheque-to-paycheque.

I did, however, find a great job in Vancouver. Better than what I had before, more relevant to both my personal interests and my future goals, better pay, all that. And hey, I was born and raised in Detroit, went to Canada a lot, thought it would be neat to try living here.

Only problem: this condo. And the market had started to fall. Not a lot, just a little bit. I called my realtor and she apologized, but said 2 years was too short to really get any money back. She figured she could get me 95% of what I bought it for, if I could get the bank to short-sale.

Which I couldn’t. They had no interest in negotiating. (This was Countrywide, who would later fail and get bought up by Bank of America. My guess, in retrospect, was that they were already failing, and wanted to just take the PMI payout instead of a short sale.) Well, I couldn’t make the mortgage without a job, and I couldn’t afford both Vancouver rent and Seattle mortgage, so… I bailed.

Fortunately, I had a non-recourse loan, and moving countries makes that even easier… so I bailed. I took the job in Vancouver, didn’t look back, and learned a bunch of lessons at a young age that I’m grateful for.

I wouldn’t go near real estate in this country. Especially not right now. I learned a lot about how this societally-sanctified idea of owning your own place is a bunch of bullshit for most of us. I also learned that often renting is cheaper than owning (I’m typing this from -a house in Leslieville-, where I’m paying a rent so low it would make homeowners cry). And I learned a lot of the lessons Garth preaches about diversification and mobility, especially when you’re young.

It’s not different here. Keep telling yourselves that, but it’s exactly what we in Seattle told ourselves, what Californians told themselves, etc etc. And it isn’t that housing prices are going to crash–they never did in Seattle–but that a small decline is enough to put the most vulnerable into a tailspin. And those job losses are already here, and going to get worse in 2016.

Stay mobile. Stay diversified. And have the money left over to both invest some AND to enjoy your youth. Another year of all our lives is gone; we only have so many left.

Happy New Year, again. <3

#54 El Predicto – Realties.ca on 01.01.16 at 8:33 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/01/el-predicto-3/ […]

#55 crossbordershopper on 01.01.16 at 8:35 pm

53% marginal tax is here its 2016, so $220,000 canadian in ontario is no big player, when converted to us$.
why anyone would want to stay here and pay half off the top to start before you even consider anything else. socialism is alive and well with T2. progressive to the max. at least harper knew who actually pays taxes and makes the wheels spin,
for the little people cash the new larger cheque that he will send out, and all is good. go to cuba spend 4 months there and come back. live like a king on nothing. why would anyone stay here i have no idea.

#56 Observer on 01.01.16 at 8:42 pm

–Trump becomes President

#57 don't hate, buy real estate... on 01.01.16 at 8:42 pm

TSX will go apeshit either up or down….oil is slippery…

by Q3 FED cuts, BOC raises, haha….

credit/debt continues to rock on, can you say
stock buybacks…

GT sells Hog, buys Ural with sidecar…his wife learns
to drive it…dog sits on GT’s lap and drools happily…

this time next year GT will say Toronto RE will drop
‘next year’….fer sure….

the ‘machines’ will implode the US stock markets more frequently (but they will always make money)….

#58 Smoking Man on 01.01.16 at 8:43 pm

When a Nectonite Meets a Fagathron

https://youtu.be/bpOR_HuHRNs

Not worried about them. The sister scares the shit out out on me…

#59 Ronaldo on 01.01.16 at 8:43 pm

”.The dollar slides briefly below 70 cents US. Most investors miss a once-in-a-generation chance to convert their US$ at $1.50.”

I will be cashing mine in next week. Up 43% since May 1/11. Good enough for me. Pays for my new car.

#60 Warren - the lagging indicator on 01.01.16 at 8:50 pm

Google ‘average’. — Garth

Hello there Garth, I have used Wealth-lab and back-tested thousands of strategies and came to the conclusion that there is no free lunch in investing other than a proper diversified portfolio as you suggest… except one! Now I am willing to accept that I may be wrong here but I have done exhaustive testing to rule out data-mining and such as well as forward testing for the past 10 years or so and I get better average returns,less draw-downs (more protection from GFC), reduced market exposure and better metrics like sharpe ratio etc. I wonder what I am missing here? Am I just getting lucky and this will end and under perform for years? It is effectively a sell in May and buy in Oct indexing strategy and I wonder if you have ever examined this, or be willing to look into this? It seems too good to be true to last forever or even this long.

#61 rawdiswar on 01.01.16 at 8:56 pm

#32 BC Guy

Pluh-eeese man, Putin would take JT to the ground and choke him out with his Judo, little JT and his aerobics class boxing would be no match to a former KGB agent.

Our PM reminds me of a bunch of sticks…

#62 Rexx Rock on 01.01.16 at 8:57 pm

No protests will be allowed because the government will deny any permits for such things.Vancouver and Toronto will rock for real estate.Mass exodus of workers from Alberta to yyz and yvr.Negative interests rates.The government will implement brain drain tax for anyone moving abroad.The government will push the envelope on all taxes big time.

#63 Habs76-79 on 01.01.16 at 9:03 pm

Trump v. Clinton.

Trump has run his campaign as a business and as a populist. He does no pander for money like the other politicians running as boot lickers. He sees his campaign as more a marketing 101 tool. By playing the boisterous, populist card and speaking mostly what the typical American wants to hear even if many would not speak it themselves, he has risen to top spot on the Republican side and by a country mile.

When other candidates and the hoity toity of MSM degrade him and his rhetoric, they just feed right into his hand. It emboldens support for him by all too many Americans. The other candidates on both sides who attack him including the attacks by the mouth pieces of MSM are only seen as elitists who are un American for their attacks on Trump and his words.

Trump does not say anything in sight of a camera and or a microphone without thinking and knowing exactly what he wants to say. IT’S WINNING AS OF TODAY!

Ms. Clinton may get the Democratic nomination but she is carrying lots of toxic political baggage for many years of being political hack and notably as former Sec. of State. Trump will have LOTS of political ammo to use on her. On top of that, she is egotistically heartless and a chronic liar. Billy Boy won’t be able to help her unless he dies and she gets some sympathy votes. Trump has ammo on Billy Boy too.

Hillary should not expect an easy road to the W.H. She failed in 2008 against Obama and my money would be on Trump if it does go head to head.

LETS GET READY TO RUMBLE!!!! TRUMP vs. CLINTON

BTW. I have no ideas if Trump would be a good POTUS, and likely he will probably not, but would be better than Hillary or any other person running for 2016. Though I do find Rand Paul to be interesting too. The last exceptional POTUS was JFK and he was assassinated.

At least it would be a very interesting and politically colourful 4 or 8 years if Trump does get to be POTUS!

#64 lee on 01.01.16 at 9:16 pm

As a result average prices in the GTA and YVR spin to a new record high. It will be the last one. Ever. Garth

Are you saying during our lifetime T.O. and YVR will not make new highs after 2016? That is a profound statement. If that’s what you’re saying. What are you saying?

#65 Hope & Ruin on 01.01.16 at 9:18 pm

woops. referenced that to the wrong poster.

#51 nonplused on 01.01.16 at 8:18 pm

So anyway my point is why would anybody want to purchase Tesla?

This is why:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LpaLgF1uLB

#66 lee on 01.01.16 at 9:18 pm

Here is my prediction. Financial planning software will be created in the next few years that will be smarter than financial planners and will set your financial plan for $29.99 and it’ll rebalance for you every six months for $12.99. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mr. Turner is working on it right now.

#67 mike in kelowna on 01.01.16 at 9:20 pm

Garth……Interesting predictions for 2016…December 30,2014 you made the following for 2015…your record is so so..

“My expectation is that this general trend will continue, with the exception of house prices. As I’ve told you too many times, demographics are negative for real estate, and the positives – cheapo rates, pent-up demand and easy debt – will diminish. Mortgages will not go any lower than they are now, and in fact will cost more in a year. A whack of house-rich, asset-poor and pension-starved Boomers will have little choice but to be trading in house equity for income over the next decade. Too bad they own all the wrong kinds of properties. Oh well.

Meanwhile the global recovery will accelerate, sparked by the US economic renaissance and greased with half-price energy. Corporate profits have been robust, and as Europe, then China, revive thanks to bargain oil and increased US import demand, markets should continue to do well. Besides, billions of new dollars will find their way into financial stuff as the big generation of half-dead hippies like me get wealth out of under-performing real assets and into things that pay them.

This coming year, seems to me, could be a watershed one. For the first time in six years, the cost of money will rise. For the first time ever, the Dow could pass the 20,000 mark (I think I suggested that in 1995). This year China will likely become the biggest economy ever. By mid-2015, house prices in all Canadian cities will be lower than a year before – for the first time. Ontario, for the first time in years, will again be subsidizing Alberta. And, of course, we’ll have a federal election, complete with a $10,000 TFSA limit next January.

So bonds yields will go up, as will equities. In advance of that, fixed-income assets like preferreds and some REITs will get cheaper. Yummy. The first mortgage rate increase will ignite a flurry of buying as the moist virgins panic – ensuring they buy at the top with the greatest possible amount of debt. Smart. Following that, a broad and lengthy pall will fall over the housing market. Oil, ever volatile, will probably stay cheap. Gold is finished. And, for a while, the dollar’s toast.

By the way, you should have known me in 1995. I was so cocky and sure of myself. Hard to imagine now.”

#68 Bill Gable on 01.01.16 at 9:26 pm

Mr. Turner – Happy New Year!

Thank you for another year of great information and fun, too.

Today’s post was incredible.

Cheers, and hi to the Amazons.

#69 Harbour on 01.01.16 at 9:29 pm

Alberta will continue to lead population growth as men on UI will have more sex with wives producing more mini melens

#70 mousy on 01.01.16 at 9:30 pm

Smoking Man: made me laugh out loud. If your address is published, the angry lesbians will have to tackle the teachers to get at what is left of you.

#71 Ronaldo on 01.01.16 at 9:36 pm

I predict that the lowest priced condo’s in Van and TO will rise to $499,999 by end of February in a rush to beat the new mortgage rules

http://www.insitetoronto.com/condos-under-500k-for-sale/l/SearchResults.form?_pg=1

#72 JSS on 01.01.16 at 9:38 pm

I think those who strategically bought Canadian banks, utilities, insurance, telecom, railroads, pipelines, grocery, and utilities at select points throughout 2015, will do well in 2016. TSX can’t suck forever. In the meantime, collect some juicy, rising dividends.

#73 Punch Doorlacth on 01.01.16 at 9:44 pm

#19 For those about to flop… on 01.01.16 at 6:53 pm
Things that will happen (probably, I think) in 2016:

* Mark gets one prediction right.”

No I think I will be more conservative, and say Mark gets one half of one prediction one quarter right….we must bring him along slowly, kind of like Leafs prospects down on the farm…

#74 LP on 01.01.16 at 9:49 pm

#40 Smoking Man on 01.01.16 at 7:46 pm
…tree huggers on the floor like being shot in the nuts, crying like infants…
…kill her before she dies.. atleased you can have something to feel good about.

Aw come on – it’s only the first day of the year; do we have to begin it with this type of violence?

#75 For those about to flop... on 01.01.16 at 9:58 pm

Vancouver predictions 2016

Real estate continues to rise …WTF

Translink continues to waste money …WTF

ICBC continues to gouge people ….WTF

B.C Liquor continues to gouge people…WTF

B.C residents continue to get gouged at the pump…WTF

Vancouver will have 60 nice days and everyone will say how good the climate is here…WTF

Catching a taxi is still a battle of endurance …WTF

I will swear less this year…probably not gonna happen!
Honourable mentions to Fortis and Shaw.

M41BC

#76 Leo Trollstoy on 01.01.16 at 9:58 pm

Solid predictions Garth. I’m looking forward to your blog in interpreting how things pan out going forward. Kudos on a great job.

#77 Leo Trollstoy on 01.01.16 at 9:59 pm

I hope real estate prices in Vancouver and Toronto start coming down. I ain’t gettin any younger.

#78 Cash is King on 01.01.16 at 9:59 pm

“•T2 mulls gender parity for the CFL.”

And nobody notices.

“•Five-year mortgage rates end the year 1% higher”

As a result, banks increase GIC rate by 1/10 of a percent. Advertisements extolling the virtues of using your TFSA to lock in the new rate are met with the usual gleeful acceptance.

#79 Stephen Fowler on 01.01.16 at 10:05 pm

Prediction – Garth continues to entertain and educate millions with wit and wisdom.

Thanks Garth, the wife and I follow nightly. Sitting in the Barber stool yesterday, I listened to a blowhard quote you ad nauseum. Yep, he was annoying, but he got your message and was spreading it. Frankly, I think you have far greater impact on society than T2 ever will.

#80 For those about to flop... on 01.01.16 at 10:23 pm

“The sales mix has changed” gets banned from being stated in all provinces and territories.

#81 more predictions on 01.01.16 at 10:30 pm

The increasing deficit of balanced ideology on this site will collapse useful dialogue, reducing content to self-gratulating narcissism of old, moderately rich white men and their wanna-be pretenders.

Smoking Man gets new update, forced to switch from alcohol to DMT, reconnects with consciousness and gets permanently banned here.

Site becomes the nation’s premier dog food and tax avoidance discussion forum, becomes participant of Disorder of Canada.

#82 AB Boxster on 01.01.16 at 10:35 pm

Even if most of these predictions do not come true, should Liz May’s head explode, 2016 could still be a seen as a really successful year.

#83 For those about to flop... on 01.01.16 at 10:45 pm

“It’s time to collect my rent in U.S dollars”gets banned from being stated in all provinces and territories.

M41BC

#84 For those about to flop... on 01.01.16 at 10:47 pm

“I live alone ,I’m nobody’s wallet” gets banned from being stated in all provinces and territories.

M41BC

#85 For those about to flop... on 01.01.16 at 10:49 pm

Feel free to help me out here guys…

M41BC

#86 For those about to flop... on 01.01.16 at 10:54 pm

” I’m so drunk, where’s Shirley Valentine?” gets banned from being stated in all provinces and territories.

M41BC

#87 Apocalypse2016 on 01.01.16 at 10:59 pm

Appreciate your light-hearted look forward, Garth.

Unfortunately, things will be getting much darker, much more quickly, than most might expect.

Beginning with the news breaking right now that will unleash an anti-government gun war in the U.S., creating enormous internal destabilization there.

2016 looks bleak. Hug your dogs, folks.

#88 Warren - the lagging indicator on 01.01.16 at 11:00 pm

Garth – “ISIS shocks everybody.”
—-
Could you expand upon what you are getting at here a little?

#89 For those about to flop... on 01.01.16 at 11:02 pm

The Metrosexual Messiah gets lice and is forced to shave off all his hair.

M41BC

#90 april on 01.01.16 at 11:03 pm

According to someone who lives in Vancouver and who has good knowledge of the Van RE market says, one B/R apartments in Vancouver city are not selling well and will drag down everything else. I expect a few bloggers here, people with a vested interest, will to try to contradict this so more fools can be deluded into buying.

#91 45north on 01.01.16 at 11:05 pm

A property tax revolt starts brewing in the Lower Mainland after assessments flame higher just as house value start wobbling.

July 1, BC Assessment determines the house value. So assessments for 2015 are already done. Based on this value, municipalities send out tax bills for 2016. I’m thinking this is pretty much done.

http://www.bcassessment.ca/Services-products/Understanding-the-assessment-process/Key-dates

no one is really going to know. What you’re going to see is that days on market increase, sales drop but the average prices stay steady. ( Mark points out that a change in sales mix hides the drop. ) Sure individuals are going to notice that they cannot sell their houses but they will remain just individual stories.

I’m guessing the number of sales for 2016 will drop below 2015 but not that much. I mean if 2016 sales are 80% of 2015 sales then the process still basically works.

#92 Unhinged Loon on 01.01.16 at 11:07 pm

This year I am going to register several ETFs tracking the major indexes which will use a simple algorithm that will automatically bet against every prediction Mark77 makes on this blog.

Projected returns in the double digits almost guaranteed!! (of course the SEC won’t allow me to make such a claim).

The MK77 ETF, ask your TSX brokers about it.

#93 For those about to flop... on 01.01.16 at 11:08 pm

Danny DeVito stars as Mike Duffy in a HBO special .
Stephen Harper plays himself as he unexpectedly has some spare time on his hands.

M41BC

#94 45north on 01.01.16 at 11:08 pm

BC Guy: BC Assessment assesses farm land in BC. Not the Federal Government.

#95 pwn3d on 01.01.16 at 11:43 pm

Agree with most of what was said, except 5 year will only go up another .5 from here for the year. Also I expect to see another decent year of YYZ and YVR gains.

More predictions:
– Wynne and Justin will argue over who is going to raise the HST in Ontario. They both agree to add 1 point each. It may not happen until 2017 but they will agree on it this year
– Wynne and Justin will argue that the poor can’t afford all the expensive fees and taxes. More fees like the “Ontario Electricity Support Program” will be added to various bills to pay for the poor
– Those who pay little taxes complain that they didn’t get a tax cut from Trudeau because the cut starts at 44k
– Some loser who after being wrong for three+ years about housing in YYZ and YVR will continue to try and excuse his idiocy by talking about price mix. Finally gets an interview, waits eagerly for a response
– 2016 will be fairly miserable for Ontario, but the sheep will just blame Harris and say the green jobs are right around the corner (similar to 2015, 2014, 2013, ect)

#96 Bram on 01.01.16 at 11:43 pm

#64 lee on 01.01.16 at 9:16 pm

Are you saying during our lifetime T.O. and YVR will not make new highs after 2016? That is a profound statement. If that’s what you’re saying. What are you saying?

Garth means in real dollars, corrected for inflation.
I think he has a point: once the market has peaked, then I expect for the next 4 decades that the only way we will see those prices again, is in inflated money. Not in real (adjusted) prices.

If our currency goes into deflation, a la Japan, for the next few decades, then we will never see the peak again, regardless. In adjusted or unadjusted dollars.

Personally, I hope for high inflation though: it will eat away the true value of my mortgage debt, and makes it easier to pay off. I would hate to pay off that debt with deflated dollars.

Bram

#97 triplenet on 01.01.16 at 11:49 pm

Perhaps now everyone will understand:
The average price of a home in Canada has nothing to do with yours.
The average price of a home in your province has nothing to do with yours.
The average price of a home in your city had nothing to do with yours.
The average price of a home in your neighbourhood had nothing to do with yours.
If your home is listed for sale and does not generate an accepted offer in 30 days your price is too high. Real estate IS liquid.
Still don’t believe….then you’ll believe this –
Cats die.
Socrates died.
Therefore Socrates was a cat.

#98 NotAGreaterFool on 01.02.16 at 12:04 am

I just came across an article from Feb 2012 where George Athanassakos stated (historically) whenever housing investment as a percentage of gross domestic product exceeds 7%, a housing correction follows within 2 to 3 years. While that window has passed…could it be really 2016?!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-02-17/canada-housing-poised-for-severe-drop

#99 stage1dave on 01.02.16 at 12:06 am

This is too f’n good to resist:

> Long-lost Arrow ‘203 is finally returned Canada (less ejection seats…haha) painted matt black. Gov’t cuts up plane citing lack of space in NAM and ugly colour. Employs TFW workers to man sawsalls, then deports them to avoid embarrassing interviews.

> Brad Wall does guest slot at old FM radio station in Swift Current, plays “Stairway to Heaven” at half-speed to avoid any questions about declining RE and oil values, and accelerating unemployment. Callers complain in record numbers, station revamps to speed-metal format playing at least ONE Slayer song every hour.

>Calgary Flames win Stanley Cup, but city is too broke to hold parade due to declining property tax receipts because of RE devaluations. Citing same local RE devastation (both commercial & residential) city offers players discount tickets to Stampede.

> Toronto Maple Leafs buy Wendel Clarke’s farm for astronomical sum on condition he re-sign for two seasons. Doug Gilmour & Mats Sundin are repeatedly harrassed by assistant coaches but say they would rather talk to Blue Jays.

> Jagr continues to prove age & experience will usually overcome youth & exuberance.

> As Canadian dollar continues to crater; Dubai makes qualifying offer for AB & SK. Unfortunately, all residents will now be classed as TFW’s.

> Trump’s campaign finally self-destructs when he actually runs out of people, minority groups, institutions, and demographics to insult; and is forced to compose speeches that consist entirely of telling people what a complete arsehole he is, then inviting the audience to tell him to FO, before telling himself to FO. Appointed the first ambassador to North Korea, his hosts complain about “abrasiveness”, “undiplomatic behaviour”, and “dumb statements”.

> Kiss conducts it’s 8th “final farewell tour” and kids everywhere understand why their grandparents thought these guys were pretty cool…but no show in Saskatoon, apparently.

> Rona Ambrose is torn between leading next degeneration of PC party or being cast in revamped Tomb Raider series. Says she’s not interested in Hollywood, but hires agent anyway. Continues to be hottest woman in politics regardless.

> Continual pronouncements of “good fundamentals” and “solid foundations” and “green shoots” re: western economy by all economic pundits, right up until said economy implodes (again) and “freedom 95” becomes a national slogan. Big 5 banks trademark it for future advertising campaign, then send all depositors bill for legal costs.

> Food prices continue to escalate, fights break out in pet food aisles. Pizza delivery dudes hire bodyguards.

> ZR III rec team shows up in AB for progress survey and discovers it’s OK to smoke dope in public but the sale of menthol cigarettes is prohibited by law? Last seen looking for Paul Hellyer to see if this idiocy can get straightened out…hey, somebody’s got to get the truth out!

> Tired of it’s citizens being blamed for rising prices, China simply buys Vancouver. Canucks move to Quebec, improving quality of hockey in both cities.

> Eric Margolis’ website continues to set new records for “going viral” every month, and he is consequently offered position of sorting out Middle East conflicts, tensions, and relations with western govt’s. This takes about 90 days. US firesales half it’s military and NATO implodes due to lack of enemies. CIA/FBI/DHS/NSA have nothing to do and lay off almost everyone. Unemployment skyrockets. To avoid economic hardship, all former military/intelligence workers are given their own office with a computer, telephone, and FB account; and 50K yearly salary. Spend rest of lives calling, texting, and emailing one another. Society benefits.

> Hardcore ISIS members given one way tickets to Antartica or Texas, their choice. Vegas posts odds on relative survival rates. Worlds shortest betting orgy, lasts 3 days. Vegas benefits. As usual…

> Hardcore neocons and enthusiastic warmongers in west given one way tickets to the country they last bombed, or ordered bombed. No point in wagering on survival rates.

> Banksters required to show up for new game show, where they endlessly debate the meaning of the word “ethics”. Nobody watches. Upon departing studio, must spend at least one night discussing CDO’s/CDS’s and Derivatives with one working class family…dinner optional. Survival rates vary.

> Rachel Notley continues to approach provincial gov’t in a sensible manner but with a watchful eye toward declining popularity numbers. Fantasizes about drinking heavily, taking up smoking, publicly blaming all Albertans for economic mess, and slugging protesters. (Knows poll numbers will go up) Says to hell with it and joins Monty Python, talks to more intelligent audience.

> Spinal Tap reunites for album, sequel, and tour.

> Justin Trudeau runs into problems looking for tax dollars; thanx to strategies put forth on GF, apparently NOBODY actually earns more than 200K a year! WalMart and McDonalds have to clear all paychecks thru CRA. Property taxes skyrocket, housing values plummet…liquid people are vindicated…but, ummm, substantially outnumbered.

> Car manufacturers introduce vehicles with minimal electronics and NO stupid options. Rear view cameras consist of operators who can swivel their heads and possess acceptable eyesight; heated seats are facilitated by bums, and all fuel injection is mechanical. GPS outlawed, people relearn how to read “maps”. Excess Computerization is outlawed. Any vehicle that cannot be repaired by a moderately intelligent human being equipped with an appropriately moderate set of hand tools is not legal for sale. Furthermore, the engineers who used to design these space-age monstrosities that require a PhD in Electrical engineering to troubleshoot (let alone repair) will face mandatory participation in another game show, where they will be forced to repair (or try to repair) the products they designed. Show has tremendous ratings, due to their continual humiliation. Upon UNSUCCESSFUL completion of their tasks in front of millions of viewers, they will be required to drop by a local garage (if there’s actually any left) with Timmies and complimentary donuts for staff…again, survival rates will vary.

> The only truly contented beings in the country will continue to be warm and well-fed house cats.

Well, that feels better…now back to reality…

#100 Robert on 01.02.16 at 12:15 am

Anyone invested in the market going into 2016 better be prepared for a buzz cut and this time there will not be a V recovery. The Global economy is strained far beyond what we faced in 2008. Watch oil closely as a break below thirty will have dire consequences on Bonds Equities and Currencies. The financial community is now back pedaling on their buy dividends strategy. Far too many dividend chasers are learning quickly that there is indeed capital erosion and in some cases it would take years of dividends just to get even on their capital investments. Look at Telus as an example if you were one of the lucky ones who paid a shade over $45.00 you are trapped as the $45,000 you paid for the the 1000 shares is now worth $38,000. With $1.68 in annual dividends do your own calculation! Oh yes did anyone even for a second consider the possibility that we are headed into a Bear Market? Potash is another example that went from the 40’s now to the $24 level and an annual dividend of about $1.70. With the dividend north of 7% many are predicting that we could see the dividend cut. The investor that bought near the 40’s for a 3% dividend could watch that drop very quickly! The financial community had their rose colored glasses on when they created and promoted the idea why put your money in the bank when you can make 4% from a Bank or a Telecom. Just pull up a ten year chart on Telus and explain to me why it cannot go back to $14 or Potash back to $10. Am not a doomsday predictor just a realist. My favorite example is AutoCanada which traded as high as $90, financed at $75 and again at $25 recently and is trading at $23.00 currently. That $1.00 a year dividend is meaningless when you have lost 50k in capital. Not to mention what if the dividend is cancelled! Could go on all night with similar examples.

So don’t buy individual equities. Duh. — Garth

#101 conan on 01.02.16 at 12:19 am

That cat lady is built for comfort and speed and she can fluff my pillows any day.

My prediction for 2016 is auto play videos on websites become an indictable offense and Huffington Post gets sued out of existence.

#102 Mark on 01.02.16 at 12:22 am

“This year I am going to register several ETFs tracking the major indexes which will use a simple algorithm that will automatically bet against every prediction Mark77 makes on this blog.”

Good luck with that. Because last year, it would’ve lost money on everything except for CAD$ and the TSX.

It would’ve lost big money on interest rates (down, despite most of the ‘professionals’ saying interest rates were going to rise). It would’ve lost money on predictions of normal inflation (CPI came in at only 1.4%, trending downwards). And it would’ve lost a modest amount of money on Canadian housing (down across Canada on identical properties, consistent with the pattern since Budget 2013).

“I expect a few bloggers here, people with a vested interest, will to try to contradict this so more fools can be deluded into buying.”

Indeed. Claims of any Canadian RE rising over the past few years should be viewed with extreme suspicion. Perhaps an enclave here and there is up, but RE generally has been down across Canada.

#103 Mark on 01.02.16 at 12:39 am

““The sales mix has changed” gets banned from being stated in all provinces and territories.”

Hilarious, but you really can’t have a reasonable discussion of price changes in a sparsely transacting heterogeneous asset class without discussing the sales mix.

I’ll quote briefly from some of Ross Kay’s work on the subject, where he works from datasets similar to what I use, and, not surprisingly, comes to similar conclusions:

“What Governments and Housing economists did not understand is that the vast majority of this 12 % increase was being caused simply from fewer and fewer initial acquisitions being part of the monthly Average Selling Price mix.

IOW, the low end has dropped out, leaving only higher-end transactions in the marketplace. Hence, the shift in average transactional prices is largely on account of the sales mix shifting, not that of individual houses appreciating.

Additionally, Ben Tal of CIBC’s research further corroborates the substantial shift in the RE sales mix over the past few years.

http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/if_2014-0908.pdf

#104 A box in the Sky on 01.02.16 at 1:11 am

I generally don’t like the idea of making timing calls on currencies but with CAD at 0.72 it is sensible to think we’re at least close to the low.

Any USD stocks/etfs I buy this year I’m just doing on margin at IB since it’s 1.85%. This is instead of converting CAD to USD and then buyin.

Feel that risk/reward is attractive.

And for the last time Mark, housing has not been falling for 2 years in Toronto. Stop lying brah.

Waiting for detached house prices to fall in TO is super annoying though because the most likely catalyst is a recession – in which case your portfolio is going to get hammered anyway just when it’s time to step up with a downpayment.

#105 HJD on 01.02.16 at 1:13 am

By the end of 2016 most Canadians will be quite happy that we elected Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. I’ve a feeling the country may even be proud of what the government accomplishes in its first year.

#106 Sean on 01.02.16 at 1:23 am

Since everyone is getting into the prediction game:

After spending all of 2015 having every word covered breathlessly by an infantile media, Donald Trump will win 0 states in the Republican primary because he has absolutely no ground game or competent organization.

#107 Centurion on 01.02.16 at 2:46 am

#45 Mark on 01.01.16 at 7:52 pm

3. The Fed cuts to -0.25% on account of the weakening US economy. The Bank of Canada goes down to 0%. Oil goes up to $45, but investment in the Alberta oilpatch and the US shale patch is still toast.

———

Mark, why on earth would the Fed finally begin its long process of normalizing rates in December 2015 only to cut them back immediately in 2016?

#108 jane 24 on 01.02.16 at 3:31 am

1. I don’t think that there will be a Spring RE market in TO because confidence is shot. Not enough people think buying houses is a good idea any more.Too many media scare stories now that folk are actually reading. Media pundits don’t want to be caught on the wrong side of the wave.

2. I think that the CND $ will be about 70 cents US or the life of this parliament as there is no reason for it to improve. 70 cents US will become the new norm.

3. Oil is going nowhere. World is swimming in the stuff and we are using less every day. Peak oil was a fairy tale.

4. T2 will be a very major disappointment to his young followers. You can’t selfie and text your way out of recession. This was an election to lose and sadly he won it.

5. The BIG ONE – very sadly terrorism will be world wide and will become the new norm. This will be the flock of black swans that no-one has control over. Even the young should invest low risk in todays world. Even low risk will in a moment become high risk.

But we are still alive and we have family and friends to enjoy being with so don’t put off the joy in life. Make every day of 2016 cont.

#109 Paul on 01.02.16 at 3:42 am

#48 JSS on 01.01.16 at 8:11 pm

BTW, chick in the pic looks pretty hot. Just curious what her face looks like. Garth, can you put up a full selfie of her?
————————————————————
Hey lay off her! She is been dating Freedom First for 10 years and she just realized the relationship isn’t going any where since that T shirt was his Christmas gift to her. She was expecting a key to his place!

#110 family beagle on 01.02.16 at 4:17 am

“Moist Millennials and agents of the Bank of Mom create a pre-Valentine’s Day buying orgy, trying to beat the Morneau Rules on down payments.
As a result average prices in the GTA and YVR spin to a new record high. It will be the last one. Ever.”

So, these are the greatest fools? Selfie millenials from the loins of entitled consumption zoomers? Hoo rah

#111 J on 01.02.16 at 7:48 am

HRM? I skimmed the comments but I couldn’t figure it out….anyone?

#112 Basil Fawlty on 01.02.16 at 8:43 am

1. It becomes obvious to even the unicorn chasers that the US economy is in recession.

2. Bullwinkle is outed as the one actually pulling the levers at the US Fed.

Check out the “The Big Short”, an entertaining and educational movie.

#113 TurnerNation on 01.02.16 at 9:05 am

#99 stage1dave what are you smoking today.

ISIS – never heard of it. What’s it stand for?
Israel Secret Intelligence Service?

On another note a tiny and wealthy country only of 8 million souls gets billions in aid over years. But it’s citizens all are not multi millionaires. So where (higher up in the command/control line) is this money being spent? I can imagine.

#114 polecat on 01.02.16 at 9:12 am

#111 J
HRM or Halifax Regional Municipality now known as Halifax. Prices still out of whack here.

#115 Jimini on 01.02.16 at 9:18 am

Hillary for Prison
2016

#116 TurnerNation on 01.02.16 at 9:22 am

The world itself runs on money not ideology.


Will this humorless pathetic weblog launch a book in 2016?
Let he who is without grin cast the first tome.

#117 drydock on 01.02.16 at 9:24 am

Gold goes to $20,000.00 an ounce and silver to $1,000.00

#118 Ontario's Left Coast on 01.02.16 at 9:33 am

Look out, the millenials are coming…

http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2016/01/02/millennials-move-up.html

M48ON

#119 saskatoon on 01.02.16 at 9:37 am

an honest conversation with a bernie sanders supporter:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQJtX6WsZ10

#120 salonist on 01.02.16 at 9:50 am

2010, some stats about small business in Canada

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/10-surprising-stats-about-small-business-in-canada-1.1083238

small business statistics – august 2013

https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/061.nsf/eng/02804.html

would be interesting to see income per employee per sector.

which sectors that will be battered by the expected recession

small business owner biggest concern…cash flow

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.16 at 9:53 am

@#111 J
HRM
Another expensive anacronym foisted upon the taxpaying public by the bored, underworked , overpaid beaurocrats in Halifax Regional Municipality ie Halifax, Dartmouth, Beford, Sackville.
Kinda like BC Transit spending millions to rebrand their name to “West Coast Transit”. Like a monopoly needs to change its name to become more appealing to its “customers”.

My prediction for 2016: Governements everywhere will continue to waste tax money “rebranding” themselves when the old names accomplished the task just fine.

#122 Jamie on 01.02.16 at 9:58 am

I’m getting cash advances every week from my 4 credit cards; a different one each week. I then pay only the minimum each month. I then squirrel away the cash under my bed. Once the cards are maxed out, I’ll declare bankruptcy. During bankruptcy, you only pay a percentage of your income which will be less than $200.00 for me. Then 9 months later, all the debt is gone; and I’ll have over $17,000.00 of their money:) Sweet.

#123 Victor V on 01.02.16 at 10:08 am

Millennials set to drive change in real estate market – They will be a force to be reckoned with as they move into child-bearing years and need more space, observers say.

http://m.thestar.com/#/article/business/real_estate/2016/01/02/millennials-move-up.html

#124 MF on 01.02.16 at 10:22 am

#123 Victor V on 01.02.16 at 10:08 am

Old news. I’ve already seen my friends upgrade from the condo to the house years ago. Younger millennials are priced out with or without mom and 95% leverage in the GTA. Condos lost their allure years ago.

The “experts” probably have a vested interest, like everything else in that awful publication.

MF

#125 Ontario's Left Coast on 01.02.16 at 10:29 am

OMG have you read about this train wreck in the making? Net worth of $47K… I wouldn’t even be buying a Kia.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/retirement/retire-housing/can-these-newlyweds-save-a-down-payment-for-a-home-in-a-hot-market/article27984130/

#126 MF on 01.02.16 at 10:30 am

#113 TurnerNation on 01.02.16 at 9:05 am

Tons of research and development in areas of technology. A lot of it military and health care related.

Israel’s main export is brain power.

Google it and see. Doesn’t fit in with your bs global view though.

MF

#127 For those about to flop... on 01.02.16 at 10:34 am

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.16 at 9:53 am
@#111 J
HRM
Another expensive anacronym foisted upon the taxpaying public by the bored, underworked , overpaid beaurocrats in Halifax Regional Municipality ie Halifax, Dartmouth, Beford, Sackville.
Kinda like BC Transit spending millions to rebrand their name to “West Coast Transit”. Like a monopoly needs to change its name to become more appealing to its “customers”.

My prediction for 2016: Governements everywhere will continue to waste tax money “rebranding” themselves when the old names accomplished the task just fine.

///////////////////////////////////
Yeah I’m sure Terry Taxpayer paid a nice price for the GRVD to Metro Vancouver change as well.

M41BC

#128 conan on 01.02.16 at 10:39 am

Re: #119 saskatoon on 01.02.16 at 9:37 am

OMG it is 2 hours long ….

This is better,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBWtZjedv8g

#129 willworkforpickles on 01.02.16 at 10:48 am

Apple buys Tesla.?..No Way.
Tesla – is going the way of the edsel and bankruptcy.

#130 Victor V on 01.02.16 at 10:50 am

#124 MF

Upgrade feasibility may be compromised for this cohort as policy and interest rates continue changing in coming years.

#131 USD/CAD on 01.02.16 at 10:57 am

Garth, I’m sure you realize that CAD call would mean the Canadian dollar would have to go to .665 of the US dollar. I don’t think that’s going to happen. It would mean Poloz is going to lower rates again and Yellen raises them. I can see Yellen raising 2 more times in 2016 at the most, but I don’t see Poloz lowering them … but I could be wrong, forecasting is not a perfect science. January is usually a very strong month for the US dollar, so we’ll see.

#132 mel eager on 01.02.16 at 10:58 am

Why is there a big bullseye on Oakville to lose value? west Oakville where I live has the 1960’s bungalows on 60 by120 foot lots, and it is currently tear-down central. Mcmansions soon appear and the local natives are adamant that these monster homes are adding value to the neighboring houses.
Or does Garth mean the north Oakville mattamy cookie cutter banality fields will see a decline?

#133 willworkforpickles on 01.02.16 at 11:04 am

As for Clinton – you are probably right because she fits the times we are coming down to.

Isaiah 3:12
Children oppress my people, and women rule over them. O my people, can’t you see what fools your rulers are? They are leading you down a pretty garden path to destruction.

#134 salonist on 01.02.16 at 11:11 am

New U.S. Tax Breaks for Canadians with U.S. Real Property and U.S. REIT Investments

http://www.kpmg.com/Ca/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/TNF/Pages/New%20U.S.%20Tax%20Breaks%20for%20Canadians%20with%20U.S.%20Real%20Property%20and%20U.S.%20REIT%20Investments.aspx

#135 Broke Dick on 01.02.16 at 11:12 am

#60 Warren – the lagging indicator on 01.01.16 at 8:50 pm
Google ‘average’. — Garth

Hello there Garth, I have used Wealth-lab and back-tested thousands of strategies and came to the conclusion that there is no free lunch in investing other than a proper diversified portfolio as you suggest… except one! Now I am willing to accept that I may be wrong here but I have done exhaustive testing to rule out data-mining and such as well as forward testing for the past 10 years or so and I get better average returns,less draw-downs (more protection from GFC), reduced market exposure and better metrics like sharpe ratio etc. I wonder what I am missing here? Am I just getting lucky and this will end and under perform for years? It is effectively a sell in May and buy in Oct indexing strategy and I wonder if you have ever examined this, or be willing to look into this? It seems too good to be true to last forever or even this long.
///////////////////////////////////////

Sell in May and go away, but not in an election year.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/funds-and-etfs/etfs/how-to-invest-in-the-us-during-an-election-year/article27893544/

#136 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.16 at 11:12 am

@#127 For those……
“Yeah I’m sure Terry Taxpayer paid a nice price for the GRVD to Metro Vancouver change as well.”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Ahhh yes, The “new” rebranded GVRD(Greater Vancouver Regional District) now known by the incredibly generic, boring “Metro Vancouver”
A Provincially run self appointed, unaccountable( to the mayors or taxpayers of the cities directly affected) entity that doesnt answer to anyone in the Metro Vancouver district. They only answer to the paragons of fiscal incompetance under Christy Clark’s mandate.
Purchasing a new 30 story office building for $200 million a mere 3 blocks from the TWO office buildings( 9 floors and 20 floors) that are full of its employees because ” The other buildings are old and “need a lot of work” ( good luck trying to sell them for the assed $80 mil). When in reality, they just need more room to put staff when they hire more beaurocrats……

Stumbling from one fiscal blunder to another.
But lets not forget Translink
Inventing a “passcard system” from scratch for the “Skytrain” thats years behind schedule and hundreds of millions of dollars in the hole…..as if there were no other mass transit systems anywhere on the planet that didnt have a workable, bug free, passcard system that they could have used…….
Trying to ‘spin” system wide “breakdowns” as “normal” in a 30 year old system when they have more maintenance staff than Christ had believers.
Paying the former inept “president” $480,000/per year for another 18 months to sit, stay and dont speak while a new president ran the gong show.
Attempting to foist a “new” tax on taxpayers by holding a $6 million dollar referendum asking people to vote “yes” and critisizing the self same taxpayers as “stupid” when the “No” vote wins by a landslide and whole thing turns into a pr debacle.
2016 will see more skytrain ‘strandings”, buckets of money thrown at the “passcard” system and millions spent on renovating their new office building when the old one was just fine.

BC = Bring Cash foolish taxpayer……Bring Cash.

#137 willworkforpickles on 01.02.16 at 11:12 am

116 – Humor is not allowed here…only G can be funny.
All other attempts at humor shall be deleted.

#138 IHCTD9 on 01.02.16 at 11:17 am

I’ll throw my .02 in for Ontario:

1. Continuing job losses become a larger concern as big headlines like the loss of GM Oshawa, USSC/Stelco Hamilton, and ESSAR/ Algoma hit the MSM.

2. Consumer confidence shrinks, as job loss fears take hold while simultaneous realization of Ontarians massive debt load comes into focus. Wallets start to close up.

3. Hydro rates increase again and again, and again, fuelling the ongoing 10+ year exodus of manufacturing.

4. Carbon taxes, ORPP obligations, and a myriad collection of revenue tools hit taxpayers and businesses alike, further sealing up wallets, and further increasing layoffs and plant closures.

5. Consumer spending starts dropping, GDP follows suit, more bad news from same encourages more wallet tightening from even more consumers

6. A burgeoning black market economy and tax avoidance strategies combine with reduced corporate remittances and retail taxes to put a significant dent in Provincial revenues.

7. GTA housing prices will increase despite every metric in use screaming bloody murder.

8. Wynne will finally sense something might be wrong in Ontario. Then she will tweak the public school curriculum, give the teachers a raise, sell more public assets, give hundreds of millions more to manufacturers on condition they will keep employment numbers up, and allow beer sales at gas stations (6 packs only, beer store hours only, beer store products only, beer store prices or more)

9. Private sector Union membership drops in record fashion, PrvS Unions become less able to win concessions for their membership than ever before. Wages stagnate, Union pensioners get squeezed, employees embark upon a steady flatline as their bargaining ordinance essentially disappears in a Province where there are less and less reasons for Corporations to stay every year.

10. Finally, public sector employment will increase, wages for same will increase, benefits for same will increase, pensions for same will increase. Provincial borrowing will test the mettle of the bond market. I can see one more credit downgrade for Ontario in 2016. Interest as a fraction of the budget will rise to between 9.5-10%. Debt to GDP ratio will break another new record high next year. Total Provincial debt will rise again for the 15th consecutive year by the end of 2016. The budget will not be balanced. Economic increases perhaps 1% for the year depending on the Loonie, Oil etc…

Take heed private sector employees in Ontario, Wynne and Sousa are coming for your wallet with the Jaws of Life in tow!

#139 Ronaldo on 01.02.16 at 11:33 am

#123 Victor V

From the article you posted from that Realtor site:

”With the average resale price of even a Toronto condo now inching toward the $500,000 mark, developers are starting to shift their sights to building rental units, anticipating that many millennials will be renters for life.”

WHEW, that sounds scary.

Getting close to the end. Going to be a rush for the cheaper condos driving the prices of those higher. Nearing the top of the roller coaster and then down, down, down. Hang on tight, it’s going to be a doozy of a ride.

#140 ole Doberman on 01.02.16 at 11:34 am

Gartho i didnt see a prediction on gold. Is it time to back up the truck?
I remember it ran 100’s of percent in the 70’s era – a time when interest rates were rising.

Thx and happy NY

#141 Fine wild roasted gonads on 01.02.16 at 11:34 am

#87 Apocalypse2016 on 01.01.16 at 10:59 pm
Appreciate your light-hearted look forward, Garth.

Unfortunately, things will be getting much darker, much more quickly, than most might expect.

Beginning with the news breaking right now that will unleash an anti-government gun war in the U.S., creating enormous internal destabilization there.

2016 looks bleak. Hug your dogs, folks.
—-
HAPPY NEW YEAR dude/dudette. Congrats on the new name. May all your endless dreams of worldwide destruction, plagues and armageddon come true.

#142 #95 Q4 2018 on 01.02.16 at 11:37 am

#95 Q4 2018 on 01.01.16 at 11:42 pm

T2 tweets and FaceBook mentions the GT blog.

New visitors get miraculously garthified, pulling all their money from savings accounts, aimed for RE purchase and flood the ETF market, causing major bubble.

The GT blog regulars go into balanced portfolio euphoria, posting day after day their gains. Leo Trollschmuck sells all his two US rental units in Columbus, Ohio and switches to TSX ETF, worships CAD (and Garth).

The new RE virgins turned ETF whores realize that why stop at not owning RE or overpriced ETF?

They cash out their portfolio, crashing the market, making the GT regulars cry for their tanking retirement plan, like TurnerNation for his lost oil sand investment in 2015.

The new RE virgins turned ETF whores turned cash kings further fine tune the GT teaching, extending from real estate to not owning anything. Period.

The refuse to own anything movement gets T2 tweet and FaceBook mentions, gets picked up internationally, crashing markets all over the world, to never seen lows.

The moist GT ETF virgin regulars are holding onto their evaporating ETF portfolio, like Alberta house owners were clinging on to their overpriced houses anno 2015.
The most desperate ones wish they could at least live in their portfolio, if it does not yield any dividend, to help out with the rent and cat food.

They will still own dogs.

#143 The Real Deal on 01.02.16 at 11:47 am

UK is cooked. Pound will be near or at parity with US dollar by end of 2016 start of 2017. London real estate will get blow torched this year into next. A lot of capital is going to slosh into US dollar and USD assets. US is the least dirty shirt in the global casino. The demographic headwind is going to knee cap global growth and it gets worse every year moving forward. By 2021, 2016/2017 will look like the glory days. And then it really goes off a cliff.

Canada’s situation is dire, but we don’t hit the wall until 2017/2018. As bad as the problems are in Alberta, it will be Ontario’s debt, the largest sub national debt in the Universe, that really get the snowball rolling. All three levels of govt are going to have to go max tax, your best hedge is to find non-traditional liquid assets and stick your capital there. Real estate is a sitting duck vis a vis property tax. Very few see this coming.

#144 An Old Bird on 01.02.16 at 12:03 pm

Is it just me, or does anyone else have an overwhelming sense that Ms. S. Valentine is not of the assumed gender? Careful, Smokey…

On the other hand, she/he is probably another figment of our resident wannabe author’s somewhat odd, but oft times, entertaining imagination. Happy Near Year everyone, and, most especially to our host.

#145 Doug t on 01.02.16 at 12:06 pm

Prediction.Trump president.because sometimes shit happens

#146 DON on 01.02.16 at 12:35 pm

#75 For those about to flop… on 01.01.16 at 9:58 pm

Vancouver predictions 2016

Real estate continues to rise …WTF

Translink continues to waste money …WTF

ICBC continues to gouge people ….WTF

B.C Liquor continues to gouge people…WTF

B.C residents continue to get gouged at the pump…WTF

Vancouver will have 60 nice days and everyone will say how good the climate is here…WTF…….

M41BC
#############################

Predictions:

1) Congestion in Vancouver will be alleviated with one more well placed bike lane.

2) Mark will be wrong in terms of his Canadian $ prediction (but I am routing for him)

3) Human nature will remain the same (habitual) but the herd will continue to realize the events unfolding in front of them – ‘oil creep’ instability continues to impact the economy, jobs, retail, real estate.

4) Politics will remain politics

5) Putin’s eye will twitch making Justin Trudeau nervous

6) American liberty regenerates and the people choose Trump… Too bad they have a all out bad selection to begin with.

7) Harper builds a custom closet in his house.

8) The world awakens a little more, as the pendulum swings. More disclosure.

9) Boomer vs Millennial really starts to heat up.

10) Increased focus on this blog…and Garth has to repeat again and again.

11) 60 days of good weather in Van, that is if we see another low water summer.

…Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right,stuck in the middle with you….

M44BC

#147 DON on 01.02.16 at 12:38 pm

Another prediction:

Real estate ‘professionals’ start thinking about how to make money on the downside.

#148 stage1dave on 01.02.16 at 12:43 pm

#113 Turner Nation;

NOT menthol cigarettes, obviously; in THIS province…dialed it back to Canadian Classic.

#149 Big Dipper on 01.02.16 at 12:56 pm

Everybody got it wrong. This is what really will happen:

– Garth Turner will recognize the wisdom of state run retirement programs and will publicly support a 30% CPP increase. He resigns from Raymond James and becomes a full time Government Pension Services adviser to JT.

– Trump will be the GOP nominee. Hillary will win in 49 states (except Texas). She will also get majorities back in both houses. Pending gun control legislation will cause civil war in the US. One CAD will be 2 USD.

– Shirley Valentine’s overtures to Smoked Ham will end tragically. However, being a manly man Smokey will find his soul mate with another pathological hater of all things Liberal and Socialist. Oxi in Greece and Smoking Man will find each other and live happily ever……

#150 Westcoaster on 01.02.16 at 12:57 pm

Knowing how well-read you are and have years of experience I’m still curious as to how you would proportionately weigh your predictions in terms of objectivity vs. gestalt (?60/40-ish).
Thank you for your continuing thoughtful advice. Having read the blog since the beginning, however heavily you are weighted towards gestalt, you are closer to the bull’s eye than most for sure.
Carry on.

#151 jess on 01.02.16 at 1:11 pm

” sandbox ”

How Microsoft moves profits offshore to cut its tax bill

By Matt Day
Seattle Times

http://amestrib.com/business/how-microsoft-moves-profits-offshore-cut-its-tax-bill

#152 brico9 on 01.02.16 at 1:11 pm

**The dollar slides briefly below 70 cents US. Most investors miss a once-in-a-generation chance to convert their US$ at $1.50 **

Time to sell some gold. If you bought it right, take CDN for it and want to use it for CDN$ investments assets. You may get around $1500 to $1600 (lucky) CDN for it. About 25% less the high in CDN in 2011.

Got mine in 2007 about $750 oz CDN. . I will re balance to hold an appropriate amount. 5% of net. Not much more upside short term for gold.

Waiving the white flag on gold.

Learned my lessons. It’s the wealth simple account going forward. I will need cash flow.

#153 postmedia on 01.02.16 at 1:16 pm

Interesting article, how the now primarily two US hedge funds owned media company is melting down from the last 1.1 billion valuation.

http://www.nationalobserver.com/2015/11/24/news/tawdry-fall-postmedia-newspaper-empire

According to Google the Postmedia Network Canada Corporation address is their old office, the still empty building on Don Mills, since they moved to Bloor Street, which is listed as the home of Postmedia Network Inc.

#154 BobbyTheKing on 01.02.16 at 1:24 pm

“The dollar slides briefly below 70 cents US. Most investors miss a once-in-a-generation chance to convert their US$ at $1.50.”

LOL what are you basing that on? Fairy dust? Oh right, an “expert” from CIBC said the CAD won’t go lower than 0.70 USD lol

#155 Hicksville Alberta on 01.02.16 at 1:25 pm

So far, i think i will take #138 IHCTD9 for the win and seriously so.

I think i would also take a bullet before being forced to go back into business in this country, and maybe even before going into the TSX or Canadian real estate or probably any real estate for that matter till at least the toilet gets flushed in spades.

Follow the fundamentals for self preservation and act accordingly.

Live Simple, Want Less and Love More.

#156 RayofLight on 01.02.16 at 1:39 pm

An interesting article in Money Watch, that graphs out where all the money is in the world. Most is in derivatives, something that is poorly regulated and / or understood. Warren Buffet believes derivatives could be the “Financial Weapon of Mass Destruction”.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-how-much-money-exists-in-the-entire-world-in-one-chart-2015-12-18/print

#157 For those about to flop... on 01.02.16 at 1:44 pm

#146 DON

…Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right,stuck in the middle with you….

M44BC

////////////////////////////////////////
Yeah Don, your right about the bike lanes.
Im not to worried though as we are allowed to grow wheat in the front yard and keep chickens in the backyard.
I haven’t yet worked out how I am going to break it to the landlord that I am going to jackhammer up his concrete to plant wheat…
The lunatics are running the asylum are they not?

M41BC

#158 OXI in GREECE on 01.02.16 at 1:53 pm

11) 60 days of good weather in Van, that is if we see another low water summer.

…Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right,stuck in the middle with you….

M44BC
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

there is NO water shortage in Holecouver. Check the Mission Gate readings. During the Govt Announced DROUGHT……the gate level was 6 inches lower than last year. This is a 30 foot river.

The problem is that the Lower HOLE Land has had 250K more people in the last ten years.

Guess how many more pipes to water and holes in the ground went in? ZERO

Your fat bloated inefficient high salaried always getting raises Govt tax dollars at work…..

#159 For those about to flop... on 01.02.16 at 1:56 pm

Another prediction…

Gregor Robertson goes for plastic surgery after losing his title as the sexiest man in politics to none other than the Metrosexual Messiah(TM ).

M41BC

#160 Not FF on 01.02.16 at 2:11 pm

Cash, cash flow, assets, no debt, being blessed, no cat ladies. That’s how I live. 100%

#161 Retired Boomer WI on 01.02.16 at 2:15 pm

Enjoyed the movie “The Big Short” immensely. I had read the book prior, as well as Michael Lewis’ other book on finance intrigue “Liar’s Poker”.

We keep forgetting the bill was sent from the Bankster’s to the public treasury, hence the big ballooning in US Debt. Thus far we have not to much as installed a ‘transaction tax’ on the markets. Could be .25% or a toll say $1 each buy/sell/option order whether executed or not. Somebody HAS to pay the bills here, might as well let the investor / gambler pay part of it.

2016 might be better than 2015 but, don’t bet on it. Commodity prices have to recover a bit to sense where we go next. Unless that begins… I am not going to guess.

#162 Ballingsford on 01.02.16 at 2:42 pm

Garth, wishing you the best in 2016.

As you last likely know, I’ve been following you forever.

I still don’t quite understand how to diversify without my bank(s) influence on mutual funds and ETFs in my RESP and TFSAs.

Any advice?

#163 srv on 01.02.16 at 2:44 pm

Interest rates…

Those who prefer to look past the headlines for their financial information might notice the ‘economic miracle’ in the US is a bit shallow. They are servicing debt of almost $20T and interest payments (to the banks that own the Fed and make the rules… hmmm) already cost well over $400B a year… at zero interest!

Yeah, give your head a shake on the recovery and normalized interest rates!

BTW, the Fed did not raise rates by 1/4%… they raised the rate “range” from 0~0.25 to 0.25~0.50!

10 yr @ before the big move was 2.268%… @ the close for 2015 it was 2.269%

A whopping 0.001% move… smoke, meet mirror!

#164 Broke Dick on 01.02.16 at 2:44 pm

#159 For those about to flop… on 01.02.16 at 1:56 pm

I know it must be the meds and the boredom. But it needs to be said. You have been spending WAY too much on here lately.
Hope you are back to normal soon.

#165 Keith in Calgary on 01.02.16 at 2:45 pm

1 – The dollar drops below 70 cents and stays there……settling around 66-68 cents.

2 – RE in Calgary loses 15% of “real value” this year (not by the CREB stats however, which are fictitious manipulations and will show little to no change) as severance packages run out, lay offs continue, and buyer’s disappear.

3 – Auto sales continue their dramatic slide across the country, further damaging the economy.

4 – Retail sales figures also continue to drop in real terms as consumers rein in spending. Don’t believe what the liars at the Conference Board of Canada or any one else tells you, walk thru a mall such as Chinook Centre in Calgary, notice the lack of people and of those who are there, you will see they don’t have bags in their hands, and look at all the papered up stores, then ask yourself, who’s really telling the truth ?

3 – No GST hike in Canada, and no PST in Alberta.

4 – Oil stays in the $30-35 dollar range. Saudi Arabia doesn’t flinch as they can afford it, and they are going to soon be at economic war with Iran.

5 – The oil patch continues to tighten it’s belt, similar to what was seen here in the early 80’s. How do you find a geologist in Calgary ? Yell “waiter” !!

6 – Commercial RE continues to tank big time. I predict a 25% vacancy rate. Had a chat with one of my long time friends at Colliers, and that was his “unofficial” take.

7 – Interest rates fluctuate up .25 and then down .25….etc….etc…..the net level at year end being within .50 of where we started. It’s all window dressing for the markets and the masses. ASK YOURSELF IF YOU DOUBLED YOUR DEBT, AND YOUR INCOME REMAINED STATIC (LIKE THE US HAS) WHAT WOULD YOU BE ABLE TO DO IF RATES WENT UP 1-2-3 % OVER THE NEXT 3-4-5 YEARS ? That is why they won’t. Ever. Welcome to stagflation. “I’m turning Japanese, oh yes I’m turning Japanese I really think so”.

8 – Rents continue to drop in Calgary and around the country. Vacancy rates increase as freshly minted new “unintended” landlords fight for tenants.

9 – Banks adopt policies, quietly and secretly, that “extend and pretend” defaulting mortgages and loans……allowing borrowers to restructure debt and/or take mortgage holidays. “What’s that smell honey ? Why dear, that’s the books being cooked.”

10 – Donald Trump gets elected as the next POTUS. I’d vote for the man in a New York second.

#166 Ronaldo on 01.02.16 at 2:51 pm

#142 #95 Q4 2018 on 01.02.16 at 11:37 am

That was very funny. Thanks for the laugh.

#167 JimH on 01.02.16 at 2:55 pm

Wishing all you dogs the best of luck in 2016!

1. The U.S. will continue to experience modest and uneven economic growth. US Corporate Earnings will improve.

2. Equity markets will reflect this with continued volatility and choppy performance, but overall modest Y/Y gains will result.

3. International growth will pick up slightly, stabilizing oil prices in the low $40 range by the end of Q2. There will be no large commodity rebound however.

4. The US Fed will make 3 rate hikes during the year: the second rate increase will spook markets temporarily.

5. The Technology, Healthcare, Financial, and Consumer Discretionary sectors will lead the US markets higher. The Utility, Materials, and Communications sectors will be a drag. The NASDAQ will outperform the S&P500, but by just a few percentage points.

6. Donald Trump will not survive Super Tuesday.

7. The Democrats will re-take the Senate and will retain the White House.

8. ISIS will continue to lose territory as support for radical Islamic fundamentalism fades and the beginnings of an Islamic Reformation emerge.

9. The number of US States with homicide rates higher than Manitoba will decrease from 25 to only 20.

10. The first recorded Marijuana overdose death in history will occur in Beacon Hill Park, Victoria BC, on the first sunny day in April.

11. Alliance Data, Honeywell, IBM, Microsoft, Checkpoint, Johnson & Johnson, Medtronic, Capital One, Citigroup, US Bancorp, Berkshire Hathaway, Visa, Pfizer, Novartis, Oracle, Union Pacific, Lowe’s, Disney, and (maybe) EOG resources will all outperform.

12. Nimble investors who prudently re-balance, re-allocate and listen to the market will thrive.

#168 OXI in GREECE on 01.02.16 at 2:58 pm

#164 Broke Dick on 01.02.16 at 2:44 pm
#159 For those about to flop… on 01.02.16 at 1:56 pm

I know it must be the meds and the boredom. But it needs to be said. You have been spending WAY too much on here lately.
Hope you are back to normal soon.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

This coming from the guy who has an 8 foot poster in his living room that says:

HI – IM FROM THE GOVERNMENT AND I’M HERE TO HELP YOU !!

#169 Leo Trollstoy on 01.02.16 at 3:06 pm

There’s something wrong with people from Toronto. Here’s a snippet:

The big crowd is understandable, given that prices — on paper at least — start at just $477,000 for stacked townhouses with about 750 square feet of living space. But prices climb quickly to the $800,000-and-up range for a more livable 1,000 square feet, especially when upgrades like a $7,500 locker and a $45,000 parking space are factored in.

#170 Sheane Wallace on 01.02.16 at 3:10 pm

#5 S.Bby on 01.01.16 at 6:11 pm
Convert US$ at $1.50.

Noted. Thanks.
——————-
Convert to Euro/GBP/Yuan.

Loonie has a loooooooooooong way to go down

#171 For those about to flop... on 01.02.16 at 3:12 pm

#164 Broke Dick on 01.02.16 at 2:44 pm
#159 For those about to flop… on 01.02.16 at 1:56 pm

I know it must be the meds and the boredom. But it needs to be said. You have been spending WAY too much on here lately.
Hope you are back to normal soon.

Hey Brokie,yeah I stopped the pain medication but your right about the boredom.
Holiday programming on T.V is not known for its quality …just like my posts apparently!
I posted a lot last night ,I admit it but when it’s flowing ,it’s flowing.Gotta find a way to keep off the wife’s nerves as well…

#172 Balmuto on 01.02.16 at 3:18 pm

– Oil goes below $30
– CAD goes below $0.70
– 10 year Treasury yield goes below 2.00%
– Inflation continues to be higher in Canada than in US
– CAD Govt bonds underperform Treasuries
– Calgary RE gets crushed; GTA/YVR RE peaks
– Bombardier stock recovers; is one of the best performers in the TSX

#173 Sheane Wallace on 01.02.16 at 3:21 pm

#45 Mark

CAD going to 0.90?

with oil heading to $ 20?

sigh…

I would be very heavily investing in mental institutions ETFs.

#174 45north on 01.02.16 at 3:24 pm

IHCTD9: Hydro rates increase again and again, and again, fuelling the ongoing 10+ year exodus of manufacturing.

politicians and senior civil servants when confronted with really hard problems disavow them. Electrical production and distribution in Ontario is a really hard problem but the Liberal Party of Ontario can say it’s not their problem. They sold it!

The Real Deal: Real estate is a sitting duck vis a vis property tax. Very few see this coming.

I don’t see it coming. Property taxes are tightly constrained by municipal politics. Community associations keep a close eye on taxes and spending. I mean if Ottawa City Council were to impose a 10% increase in property taxes then it would not be re-elected.

#175 Ronaldo on 01.02.16 at 3:31 pm

Had it not been for the 1000 point rally of Dec. 15 to end of December 2014, the TSX would only be down 5% instead of the 11.8%. The Santa Claus rally everyone expected this year seems to have evaded us and only returned 2.5% from Dec. 15th to Dec. 31st. Expect we will be back up to par by end of February with a delayed rally. After that, who knows? That’s all my crystal ball can tell me right now. Short sighted I guess. Load up your TFSA’s early.

#176 Panhead on 01.02.16 at 3:42 pm

#51 nonplused on 01.01.16 at 8:18 pm

Not shure how the cars work but one of the main reasons loco’s are diesel-electric is for traction control. The current going to each motor can be altered to control wheel slip. Once they slip … you’re hooped. Also allows for multiple units to be operated from a lead unit. All aboard …

#177 jess on 01.02.16 at 3:49 pm

memorize and write system
Whistle-blowers say that over nearly a decade, tens of millions of dollars exchanged hands to rig the tests that help determine university slots and civil service jobs.

The mystery of India’s deadly exam scam

It began with a test-fixing scandal so massive that it led to 2,000 arrests, including top politicians, academics and doctors. Then suspects started turning up dead. What is the truth behind the Vyapam scam that has gripped India?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/17/the-mystery-of-indias-deadly-exam-scam

Great Read India test cheating stirs outrage — then people start dying
http://www.latimes.com/world/great-reads/la-fg-c1-india-testing-scam-20150717-story.html

#178 Leo Trollstoy on 01.02.16 at 4:09 pm

#172 Balmuto on 01.02.16 at 3:18 pm

Bold. Decisive. I like it.

#179 Aggregator on 01.02.16 at 4:21 pm

I don't see why anyone would be bullish on the Canadian dollar over the mid-to-long term, especially when the CAN-US 10YR spread is signaling more deflationary pressures.

It's not the US or Canada you need to look at. It's the rest of the world that's exporting deflation through competitive currency devaluation. This trend won't change until monetary policy, exchange rates and fiscal policy are coordinated amongst major central banks and/or FinMins, as it did in the Plaza Accord in 1985, or the G20 summit in 2009 to name a few points in history.

Until then it's just more of the same.

#180 The American on 01.02.16 at 4:39 pm

Trump. Either he is insane or an epic genius. As his campaign continues, it has crossed my mind he may be deliberately be sabotaging the republiCONS. If you review all of his positions only ten years ago, you will note he was a self-declared Democrat, he supported a fast path to immigration, he was pro-choice, supported gay marriage, opposed the war in Iraq, supported a tax on the uber wealthy, supported a ban on assault weapons, supported long waiting period to purchase guns, supported private sector unions, demanded a system of universal healthcare for Americans, etc. It is remarkable he can now take these positions he claims, without being publicly questioned on the flip flop of political beliefs. Perhaps he is instead saying anything he possibly can in a derogatory, selfish, and moronic policies in order to secure the idiots on the right in a single mass of voters. Then, once nominated as the republiCON candidate, he will deliberately bow to Hillary, thus ensuring her victory (she’s going to win anyway, even if Trump believes his own vile). After all, he was the only republiCON candidate who refused to take a vow not to exit the party and run as an independent. I think the bastard is crafty.

#181 Gulf Breeze on 01.02.16 at 4:39 pm

Mike in Kelowna,

It’s all about business cycles. China is about to hit a brick wall after a couple of decades of insane growth, wage disparity, the mother of all real estate bubbles, replete with ginormous ghost cities. Kind of like the roaring twenties on steroids.

We in the West will eventually recover from the winding down of China but it will take a while. As far as the American ‘recovery’ goes, most ‘American’ cars are being purchased or were being purchased in China.

#182 TurnerNation on 01.02.16 at 4:53 pm

126 MF so why is ‘aid’ needed? Strange world view indeed.

#183 TurnerNation on 01.02.16 at 4:56 pm

Ps. How many Syrian refugees are they taking?

#184 Julie K. on 01.02.16 at 5:07 pm

BC Assessment is out with updated assessments.

So much fun to check out — especially if you follow RE in Vancouver.

Having just surfed my ‘hoods (past & present), I will add a prediction: lots & lots of peeps will soon be shocked to see exactly how much more in property taxes they will be paying. Even if you did not pull the trigger in 2015 and sell, but your neighbour did, you are affected and will pay more all thanks to the greater fool (aka your new neighbour) who bid up your old neighbour’s place.

Such is life in the best place on earth.

http://www.evaluebc.bcassessment.ca

#185 acdel on 01.02.16 at 5:07 pm

I predict that we learn that everything that we have been told about the U.S economy is a lie, 47 million on food stamps, 10’s of millions looking for work or have given up looking for work which is not included in the unemployment rate stats will come home to roost. Current unemployment in the U.S. and Canada is double in what is actually stated. In many States home prices are actually dropping (Google it) causing another potential headache. Interest rates in the U.S.will start dropping after the Presidential Election, China’s numbers are way off and oil will actually increase due to to unforeseen (wink,wink) incident.
Most important, love this blog, all of you are awesome, thanks Garth! Happy New Year!

#186 MF on 01.02.16 at 5:46 pm

#183 TurnerNation on 01.02.16 at 4:56 pm

They are taking in zero like we should be. Remember Israel is technically at war with Syria.

What is happening is all these “migrants” from hostile countries are flooding into Israel’s allies. Does that seem like a positive for the country in your eyes? Do you think that would a smart move by the elite for the country? I don’t.

Here is a chart of us aid
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_foreign_aid

Top country is Afghanistan. Israel two. You have other shining stars as Pakistan, Somalia, Egypt on that list as well, which you conveniently didn’t mention.

Top of usage of US aid is military. In case you didn’t notice most countries in the ME are hostile to us interests. Israel is still a strategic ally.

MF

#187 saskatoon on 01.02.16 at 5:57 pm

#128 conan

better for you, yes.

#188 Mark on 01.02.16 at 6:20 pm

“Mark, why on earth would the Fed finally begin its long process of normalizing rates in December 2015 only to cut them back immediately in 2016?”

They’ve gotta do something in response to the recession which is likely already underway.

There is no U.S. recession. — Garth

#189 DON on 01.02.16 at 6:46 pm

#157 For those about to flop… on 01.02.16 at 1:44 pm

#146 DON

…Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right,stuck in the middle with you….

M44BC

////////////////////////////////////////
Yeah Don, your right about the bike lanes.
Im not to worried though as we are allowed to grow wheat in the front yard and keep chickens in the backyard.
I haven’t yet worked out how I am going to break it to the landlord that I am going to jackhammer up his concrete to plant wheat…
The lunatics are running the asylum are they not?

M41BC
****************

Yah and the asylum is over capacity…good thing they are talking about mental health facilities at the old river view location.

If you are allowed meat chickens, get a chopping block and cleaning station, chickens in the back yard and little butchery in the front – curve side appeal for prospective neighbors.

Forget about wheat, try hemp, good cover for the real pot pants lining the perimeter between the neighbors. Land lord could apply for farm status….lower taxes…win, win, win.

Be well!

#190 Sharon Gates on 01.02.16 at 6:54 pm

Surprised you didn’t mention that cauliflower will be $10 when the C$ hit’s 60 cents and starving seniors will be stalking cats and pugs in the alleyways.

#191 bdy sktrn on 01.02.16 at 6:57 pm

#184 Julie K. on 01.02.16 at 5:07 pm
BC Assessment is out with updated assessments.

So much fun to check out — especially if you follow RE in Vancouver.

Having just surfed my ‘hoods (past & present), I will add a prediction: lots & lots of peeps will soon be shocked to see exactly how much more in property taxes they will be paying. Even if you did not pull the trigger in 2015 and sell, but your neighbour did, you are affected and will pay more all thanks to the greater fool (aka your new neighbour) who bid up your old neighbour’s place.

Such is life in the best place on earth.

http://www.evaluebc.bcassessment.ca
——————

are you new here?

everyone’s assessment went up.

therefore nobody’s taxes go up beyond what extra the city needs over 2015.

On a percentage basis (of property value) our taxes have been dropping like a stone for the last 20 years and i look forward to the further DROP in 2016.

#192 A Box in the Sky on 01.02.16 at 7:00 pm

#163 srv on 01.02.16 at 2:44 pm
Interest rates…

Those who prefer to look past the headlines for their financial information might notice the ‘economic miracle’ in the US is a bit shallow. They are servicing debt of almost $20T and interest payments (to the banks that own the Fed and make the rules… hmmm) already cost well over $400B a year… at zero interest!

Yeah, give your head a shake on the recovery and normalized interest rates!
———————————–

lol @ doomers who bet against America and claim it’s insolvent.

400B in interest payments is minimal for an 18 trillion GDP economy.

They always have the ability to raise taxes or print money if they have to.

Their fiscal situation has been improving for 5 straight years, even with feeble growth.

Anyone who goes on the US = insolvent train is a muppet

#193 DON on 01.02.16 at 7:01 pm

#158 OXI in GREECE on 01.02.16 at 1:53 pm

11) 60 days of good weather in Van, that is if we see another low water summer.

…Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right,stuck in the middle with you….

M44BC
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

there is NO water shortage in Holecouver. Check the Mission Gate readings. During the Govt Announced DROUGHT……the gate level was 6 inches lower than last year. This is a 30 foot river.

The problem is that the Lower HOLE Land has had 250K more people in the last ten years.

Guess how many more pipes to water and holes in the ground went in? ZERO

Your fat bloated inefficient high salaried always getting raises Govt tax dollars at work….

******************************

Put the detonator on the ground and back away slowly. Yes I agree the gov should be more efficient, while planning for every possible scenario. More cross training perhaps…solutions are better than rants.

#194 bdy sktrn on 01.02.16 at 7:10 pm

just checked assessment for my decrepit shack – up 20% or just under 200k. blasted past the 1m mark like a chainsaw through shaving cream.

taxes will be up by about 4% as usual.

yawn.

used to be 1% of value (2001)
now approaching 0.3% of assessed value.

yeah!

#195 Your Turn on 01.02.16 at 7:19 pm

#144 An Old Bird on 01.02.16 at 12:03 pm

Is it just me, or does anyone else have an overwhelming sense that Ms. S. Valentine is not of the assumed gender? Careful, Smokey…
————–
I assumed Male.

#196 Hank Parsons on 01.02.16 at 7:21 pm

Canadian real estate market crashes 30% on average, more n BC, Saskatchewan and Alberta.

There will be at least 1,000,000 personal bankruptcies in Canada in 2016.

Payday loans and reverse mortgages will continue soar in 2016.

The Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz will resign by the end of 2016.

Credit card default rates hit 6% in 2016 and auto loan defaults will hit 5% in 2016.

#197 bdy sktrn on 01.02.16 at 7:23 pm

Total Value $1,858,000

Previous Year Value $972,400
—————–
this from the ‘recently sold in the hood’ file – HE will pay more this year.

#198 Oceanside on 01.02.16 at 7:52 pm

#105 HJD on 01.02.16 at 1:13 am
By the end of 2016 most Canadians will be quite happy that we elected Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. I’ve a feeling the country may even be proud of what the government accomplishes in its first year.

Nice to see somebody here that isn’t a doomer. Have a good year, enjoy life.

#199 bdy sktrn on 01.02.16 at 7:53 pm

happily home back in bc after a week in the HRM. word out there is values are mostly flat but things in general are booming in the city. new towers all over the place, prob the biggest difference i’ve seen in 25 years of sporadic visits in terms of new and ongoing construction. as the rural maritimes hollows out halifax is absorbing the flow. my bro says his lakefront 1+acre , rural place has gained near 200% in 12 years.

some of the best people you could ever meet… but even shirley valentine and her sexy talk couldn’t get me to live there – not for all the tea in china.

#200 bdy sktrn on 01.02.16 at 7:57 pm

a funny thing happened… i happened into a Chinese restaurant for just a moment and as i entered i had an overwhelming sense of being back home in bc. (and the egg rolls were perfect;)

#201 Warren - the lagging indicator on 01.02.16 at 8:09 pm

The preferred share market is hinting that the BOC may hold the line on rates. Nevertheless, I have been taking profits on ZPR here because from experience, these quick gains should be harvested and you know what they say about pigs. I have been putting the gains in an oil company etf with covered calls for an income boost (and wait for oil to slowly rebound) and also a bit back into the TSX index. If BOC cuts, the preferreds may react irrationally and give another re-entry point… wait for it.

#202 Chris on 01.02.16 at 8:18 pm

I have been reading this “pathetic blog” with quite a bit of interest, getting through about 25 postings and laughing quite a bit at the anecdotes from “real folks” who are actually buying houses. I agree and disagree with Mr. Turner’s thesis. On the top end of things, you are exactly right, purchasing a million dollar house with a $900,000 mortgage and $100,000 down, when you earn 150K per year, so that you can have a backyard, and you think prices will go up forever, is nuts. I agree with you wholeheartedly on that.

However, renting is also nuts. Thousands of dollars a month, for nothing, makes no sense.

The problem is not inflated real estate prices, leading to unaffordable homes, the problem is hipsters and “prime neighbourhoods”. We live in the Social media age. I hate it and don’t have anything to do with it, but more evolved humans than myself, won’t do anything unless it is “trending” and at least twenty of their “friends” “like” it.

Hence, the Toronto phenomena that allowed me to enter the housing market purchasing a detached house for $329,000 for mostly cash, and then a second semi detached house (just for fun) for $279,000.00 (again, mostly cash), and then ride the values up into the million dollar range, just by being able to predict social media connected, hipster behaviour.

What I can say is that people who tell you that you need a mil to buy a detached house in Toronto are nuts. You can have one right now for under $400,000.00.

And if you are going to buy stocks, or ETFs or whatever, remember, the only way to make money on a stock or an investment is the long term way. Buy and hold. So don’t buy stuff that is generic or unlikely to hold its value, and don’t buy stocks that get their value from tax loopholes (ie REITs). Buy solid, well managed companies that have a strangle hold on the market.

#203 TurnerNation on 01.02.16 at 8:18 pm

MF your post was helpful.

I’m not sure anyone at any level is allied to our interests. I mean our local hospitals run begging charity drives to pick up basic First World equipment, yet, we pay 50% of our income via varied taxation methods.

T2 handing 2.6billion overseas for green nonsense. And I doubt any citizens of US aid countries’ target reap rewards. I allege all those funds move higher up the pyramid structure to effect more-global interests. Is there anything “IS” cannot accomplish….

My prediction is SE Asia will be spared them, having been turned already into a sweatshop economy. Check clothing tags.
Remember the likes of K. Rouge and P. Pot were allowed unliberated (“he’s killing his own people?!”) Access to there.
No wonder the green lady of liberty statue wears blinds.

#204 Warren - the lagging indicator on 01.02.16 at 8:30 pm

Garth – ” That suggests people are finally realizing while they may not utilize the gift now, it will be there for them in the future. To attack the TFSA just because it’s under-utilized is myopic to say the least.”
——

I agree with you generally that the TFSA is a good thing for Canadians and allows opportunity for freedom from government and financial independence but where does 10000 dollars figure come from and why not $100,000 or more if it is so good. It is like a counter argument about increasing the minimum wage from the right that goes something like, if 15 dollars an hour is good then why not 100 or more and who sets this amount…should it not be the free market. I feel many people think that the rich are disproportionally benefiting from this arbitrarily set amount. Should it not be set like the free market, by supply and demand, and since the majority of Canadians can not afford to make contributions right now the limit should be low. When wages in this country rise along with discretionary income, the limit to the TFSA should rise proportionally. Just a thought.

note: Then again, I just looked at the ever increasing graph of disposable income in Canada from 1961 coupled with the 11.7 percent increase in Canada since 2007 under Harper. I may have to rethink this. Is all the disposable income sucked up by debt and expensive housing or wasteful spending?

#205 salonist on 01.02.16 at 8:51 pm

nectonite, learn.

The Complete Ferengi Rules Of Acquisition

#206 Smoking Man on 01.02.16 at 8:57 pm

Star Wars sucked.

So I watched Star Wars, Very Painful, Cultural Marxism shoved into my 3d glasses. Very disappointing.

The weirds things were the ads before the show started. Can’t quite put my finger on it. It was like we were being molly cuddled.

And of course some Kathleen Wynne propaganda ads, paid for by you and me. All in all, great special effects, but garbage dialog, and a shity plot.

The writers used some shit in my book, now I need to take it out, even though I wrote it like 4 years ago.

Don’t want to be accused of being unoriginal.

#207 bubu on 01.02.16 at 9:03 pm

Too much pessimism here :)

1) oil – $135
2) AB real estate +15%
3) ON, BC real estate +5%
4) TSX 16500
5) Interest rate 0.25%

#208 Alvina Knows on 01.02.16 at 9:09 pm

#206 bubu on 01.02.16 at 9:03 pm

6) Moose Jaw SFH (1573sqft) lists for 669K

#209 Julie K. on 01.02.16 at 9:11 pm

*smacked* by a body skirting….!?

New or not, I come here to learn from the ‘big boys’ — knowing I know nothing and will go to my grave knowing less.

Sucks.

That said, my (limited) understanding of property assessments and its correlation to property taxes had me believing if a SFH in 604 was assessed in 2014 @ $800K and sold in early ’15 for $1.3M it is then assessed, in the new year, at the sale price.

The higher, by $500K, assessment means the new owner will pay more in property tax come July 2016 than the previous owner in July ’15. A lot more.

Further, all neighbouring property values are updated (or downgraded) to reflect the new “street” or neighbourhood valuations (based on actual sales/sold stats).

Leads to another prediction: my understanding of assessments (up or down) and its relation to amount of property tax owing (up or down) is wrong (and yeah, it is not the first nor the last time).

#210 Ogopogo on 01.02.16 at 9:12 pm

Kelowna RE prices continue to fall, despite the massive delusion in the sleepy, moribund actually, Okanagan Valley.

Just checked BC Assessment for two units in my condo. One has lost $20K on March 23, 2015 and the other lost $14K since April 8. In other words, two underwater “owners” within a few steps of my corner unit, one of only a handful that are allowed to be rented out. Incidentally, my unit was the model unit when the building went on the market ten years ago.

I should feel smug about living in the best unit in my building while paying way, way less than the overleveraged “owners” here. Instead, I pity the fools.

#211 Leo Trollstoy on 01.02.16 at 9:13 pm

#205 Smoking Man on 01.02.16 at 8:57 pm

If it can pull $1b in the first week, it’s good ;)

#212 Leo Trollstoy on 01.02.16 at 9:16 pm

There is no U.S. recession. — Garth

Garth wins again. It never gets old.

#213 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.16 at 9:20 pm

@#199 bdy skytrn
“couldn’t get me to live there – not for all the tea in china.”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I guess you missed the little 4.5 shaker in Lotusland last week. A precurser to the “big one”.
Perhaps a 8.5 shaker might change your mind?

#214 Leo Trollstoy on 01.02.16 at 9:20 pm

I don’t see why anyone would be bullish on the Canadian dollar over the mid-to-long term

The historical ratio of the CAD/USD doesn’t spend too much time below 70 cents. It’s not the worst idea to convert USD to CAD at these levels.

#215 Centurion on 01.02.16 at 9:26 pm

Millennials set to drive change in real estate market.

They will be a force to be reckoned with as they move into child-bearing years and need more space, observers say.

http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2016/01/02/millennials-move-up.html

#216 Centurion on 01.02.16 at 9:38 pm

About that article again: http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2016/01/02/millennials-move-up.html

“In the end, they resorted to a bully bid — a bid $5,000 over asking price, and before the deadline for offers — and snagged a 1,400-square-foot, three-bedroom townhouse near Taunton Rd. and Anderson St. for $380,000.”

THAT was supposed to be a bully bid?

#217 Ronaldo on 01.02.16 at 9:54 pm

#197 bdy sktrn on 01.02.16 at 7:23 pm

”Total Value $1,858,000

Previous Year Value $972,400
—————–
this from the ‘recently sold in the hood’ file – HE will pay more this year.”

—————————————————————

This was either a major reno or a rebuild I would suspect. Anyway, here is one that I have been following for the past 3 years.

7-East 21st Street in the Mt. Pleasant area, a couple blocks off Main Street. It was purchased by a couple who purchased, reno’d and flipped.

They paid $925,000 in October of 2012. The 2012 assessment was 1,047,900. 2013 – 1,059,000, 2014 – 1,131,800, 2015 – 1,201,000, 2016 – 1,818,000.

Started the reno near beginning of 2013.

This probably should have been a teardown but they decided to lift it off its foundation and raise it up a couple more feet. New foundation and lower floor framing completely redone. Totally stripped inside and out, basically a shell. It was put on the market beginning of 2015 or thereabouts for $1,899,000 and sold on April 19th for $1,870,000. Double what they paid for it. Don’t know what would have been spent to do the job but this was a major job and no expense spared. I suspect they did quite well on it. There have been quite a few like this being done in the area over the years and they seem to sell quite quickly. The house was 105 years old. I know of another one just around the corner and similar in size and style that was purchased in July of 08 for $875,000. This one is pretty much in original condition and likely would be considered a teardown and assessed at $1,285,000. You can see that the difference in purchase cost between this one and the previous was only $50,000 although they were purchased over 4 years apart. There are not many homes for sale in that area between Main and Cambie and King Edward and 16th from what I’ve been able to determine. There is another small shack of a place 650, s.f. a bit further down the street for sale and advertised as a lot with building plans for $1.7 million. the lot itself is valued at around 1 million for a 32 foot lot. I suspect will see this torn down as well and a new home built. Many of the homes in the area are quite run down and in need of major maintenance. I can see this trend continuing because at these current prices it is not first time buyers that are buying these places. It has to be people with lots of cash. Certainly not any moist millenials.

#218 saskatoon on 01.02.16 at 9:54 pm

#205 Smoking Man

i agree.

new star wars is a great “event”…horrible film.

obviously intentional…as j.j. abrams is quite competent.

designed by highly intelligent people to dumb the masses down.

it is a group think event.

quality of film is irrelevant.

reality distances itself farther from the pleb.

#219 Ben Bingham Jr. on 01.02.16 at 10:05 pm

Everything goes +/- 5%

The weakest prediction ever made but sounds so credible because people think things stay the same forever but they can change really fast, but it might take a while.

If I predicted anything more I could be accused of being a radical or a lunatic. So I’ll just play it so safe that will bore everyone to sleep and it looks like I will be right but really not all investment areas will only change +/- 5%.

#220 common sense on 01.02.16 at 10:05 pm

2016:

The Donald wins then blames everyone else when his plans do not go through. “Nobody would work with me.”

Only Amazon and Google carry the Nasdaq upwards.

Loonie at $1.50.

Major correction to US markets 2 months prior to elections.

Canada buys Puerto Rico. We all move south for 1/2 year less 1 day to still qualify for OAP.

Freedon First relents and marries Shirley Valentine. Smokey’s head explodes.

Marks posts grow to over 3000 words each.

#221 Aggregator on 01.02.16 at 10:08 pm

The historical ratio of the CAD/USD doesn’t spend too much time below 70 cents

Sure. Like it didn't historically spend too much time below 99 cents, then 90 cents, then 80, 75, 65…

Nobody seems to have said anything when the loonie soared from 63 cents $1.05, because an appreciating currency is good for consumers purchasing power. But when it comes the trend reversing and heading back down to make new lows, they argue that can't happen, when it always has.

#222 juno on 01.02.16 at 10:13 pm

In the Governments mission to pump the real estate market they have successfully fck the canadians

http://www.profitconfidential.com/forex/cad-to-usd-why-hedge-funds-see-more-downside-for-canadian-dollar/

The loonie is spiraling downwards, yes we have seen this before, but not with so much debt and a generation of mememe.

Get ready for a 62 cent dollar. And hyper inflation, only to Canadians. Also not in Alberta there is a 30% increase in suicides. Expect more to come as people come to grips with the realization that they are swimming in a whirlpool of debt and there is no way out.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/suicide-rate-alberta-increase-layoffs-1.3353662

#223 Mark on 01.02.16 at 10:14 pm

“Millennials set to drive change in real estate market.

They will be a force to be reckoned with as they move into child-bearing years and need more space, observers say.

Another sad example of a RE-pumping newspaper not considering the other side of the story, and that is, Millennials already own record amounts of RE relative to their age, historically speaking (so chances are, they already have that extra bedroom or two). Fertility rates are in the toilet with no change in sight. And the elderly crowd is such a long-term selling force in the market that the need for extra space, if it materializes, will be more than easily satiated.

There’s no reason to believe the price declines of the past 2-3 years won’t continue in the new year. Millennials won’t be riding to the rescue of the market, that’s for sure. Especially with weakening employment.

#224 Smoking Man on 01.02.16 at 10:17 pm

#214 Leo Trollstoy on 01.02.16 at 9:20 pm
I don’t see why anyone would be bullish on the Canadian dollar over the mid-to-long term

The historical ratio of the CAD/USD doesn’t spend too much time below 70 cents. It’s not the worst idea to convert USD to CAD at these levels.
…..

Are you out of your mind, we have A Marxist running Canada, oil sands are finished, Ontario is finished , T2 and Wynne getting there orders from a guy hell bent on De industrialization. Google Gerard Butts.
MAURICE STRONG.

#225 Mark on 01.02.16 at 10:21 pm

“Credit card default rates hit 6% in 2016 and auto loan defaults will hit 5% in 2016.”

Almost already happening to the Canadian Tire Credit Cards:

http://s2.q4cdn.com/913390117/files/doc_downloads/glacier_credit/investor_monthly/Investors-Monthly-Disclosure-Report-2015-10.pdf

Net Write-Off Rate (annualized) 5.30%

Actually there was a bit of an improvement over earlier this year:

http://s2.q4cdn.com/913390117/files/doc_downloads/glacier_credit/abcp_series_1997_1/imps/Investors-Monthly-Disclosure-Report-2015-03.pdf

Net Write-Off Rate (annualized) 6.21%

Interesting, eh?

#226 betamax on 01.02.16 at 10:23 pm

#90 april: “one B/R apartments in Vancouver city are not selling well and will drag down everything else. I expect a few bloggers here, people with a vested interest, will to try to contradict this”

LOL. Anyone who disagrees ipso facto with your implied causal relationship must have a vested interest?

I have no idea how 1-bd condos are selling in Van city are doing, but I know for a fact that 2-bd condos are selling well in the GVRD. Existing suites are selling fairly quickly, and pre-sale towers are still selling out, so it remains to be seen how slow sales of 1-bd’s in the city are going to bring down the larger market.

As for my interests: I’ve been waiting for this market to crash for years, but it isn’t happening yet. It’s just wishful thinking to assert otherwise.

#227 Bram on 01.02.16 at 10:23 pm

#209 Julie K. on 01.02.16 at 9:11 pm
The higher, by $500K, assessment means the new owner will pay more in property tax come July 2016 than the previous owner in July ’15. A lot more.

In that case, yes, as that +500K probably beats the average increase in Vancouver.

If your assessment is up +20%, and the Vancouver average for assessment increases is also +20%, then you do not have to fear.

Vancouver will tune the property tax percentage so that it gets its budget, based on what the total value of all assessments is. They do want +4% more than last year though, so that’s your increase if your assessment increase is exactly the Vancouver average.

In short: if everyone’s assessment goes up, then your higher assessment does not matter, as long as it is in line with average.

If your assessment doubles, then yes, you are in for writing a big cheque, which will hurt.

Bram

#228 For those about to flop... on 01.02.16 at 10:33 pm

Julie k ,cheer up if you were to go through all the postings and micro analyze every word you would spot lots off mistakes too.
Some people just can’t help themselves correcting people for no good reason.
I’ve read some of your post before and your a smart cookie …you don’t have to prove yourself to anyone on here ,it’s not a competition.
Some subjects I know a bit about and others I know absolutely nothing about.
Run your own race is all I’m saying.
It’s probably not worth much ,but you have my respect.
The more girls on here the better, I hate sausage parties!

M41BC

#229 ww1 on 01.02.16 at 10:34 pm

#209 Julie K.
I think that you are working the property tax assessment thing backwards.

Think of it this way. Say for example that a city needs $1,000,000 to operate. And say there are 1000 homes. The city would then tax each home an average of $1000 to meet its operating needs if everyone was taxed equally.

But that would not be “fair” you say, as some home are worth more than other! (ignoring the fact that they probably draw the same level of services from the city).

The value of each home then comes into play when the $1,000,000 of taxes are divided up based on property value rather than equally between each house. More expensive homes pay more, cheaper homes pay less. How much each home pays is a function of its value relative to the total value of all the homes. If all housing prices go up 50%, the property tax for each home remains the same ($1000). Rising values do not change your tax basis as long as all homes rise together!

Does that make more sense?

Note that this ignores the possibility that the city decides it need more money (and that it can extract it from the newly “rich” original home owners). But even in that case, every home’s tax goes up together.

#230 Smoking Man on 01.02.16 at 10:39 pm

#205 Smoking Man on 01.02.16 at 8:57 pm

If it can pull $1b in the first week, it’s good ;)
…..

Just an other attack on young white males. Woman phiysicaly stronger than men. Young Troubled white male kills his father. Young black male leaves the Hood.

I’m cool with it, I’m glad they are trying to re enforce and strengthen woman to be more assertive, I’m glad that they are showing young black men a better path.

But it’s coming at the expense of Innocent kids.

Young white straight men are in the cross hairs these days. Open season on them. I have three sons, and it pisses me off.

Call me a rasist homo phob..

I give no shit…I say what I see.

School me if I’m wrong.

#231 Ray Skunk on 01.02.16 at 10:45 pm

Centurion – don’t bother questioning the Toronto Star. In fact, don’t even bother reading it – I certainly don’t.

That rag represents everything that is wrong with Toronto; unflappable support for the Ontario Liberals in the face of overwhelming corruption and theft, combined with continual reinforcement of the RE meme (viz. regurgitation of TREB stats as “news” via their “business reporter” Susan Pigg) due to reliance on RE advertising dollars.

I wouldn’t wipe my backside on the print version, I won’t waste precious mouse clicks on the web version.

#232 Mark on 01.02.16 at 10:48 pm

“There is no U.S. recession. — Garth”

The transports crashing, the savings rate going through the roof, the comatose Christmas shopping season, and the accelerating layoffs aren’t signs of probable recession? Really?

“Garth wins again. It never gets old.

Your trolling has become very old.

#233 The American on 01.02.16 at 10:52 pm

At #192: A Box In the Sky, are you truly this naive? What is it with Canadians never grasping the size of the U.S. and its economy when compared to it’s debt loads on a per-capita basis? If you want to know a bigger offender, then look to yourselves. Canada is significantly higher than the U.S. with public debt to GDP per-capita. The U.S. can EASILY afford the debt service, plus it is HANDS DOWN *the* global reserve currency (which comes with a suite of extras and goodies that other currencies don’t encompass), and it will remain that way through our lifetimes and our children’s lifetimes. Now, as a Canadian this is where you are supposed to throw me all your little-man bullshit hyperbole about the Roman Empire, but I wouldn’t be betting on that in the next three lifetimes. You might want to focus on what is near and dear to your own economy and closer to the hear and now. For example, Canada runs 104% Public Debt to GDP ratio, while the U.S. runs at 73% or so. Both countries have External Debt to GDP ratios that are acceptable and both dropping. I bet you didn’t know those little facts, now did you? That’s right, because they don’t teach you that up there. They have you only focus on a single number, without consideration to the meaning behind it. Cheers! How’s that CAD treating you?

http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

#234 bdy sktrn on 01.02.16 at 11:04 pm

#213 crowdedelevatorfartz
I guess you missed the little 4.5 shaker in Lotusland last week. A precurser to the “big one”.
Perhaps a 8.5 shaker might change your mind?
—————————-
did miss it , sadly. no fear of these things.

felt 2-3/wk when in tokyo for a year. most fun when on the 10th floor at work and you could watch the bldgs sway.

when the ‘big one’ happens, it will be 400km offshore of VI where the fault is.

yawn.

#235 bdy sktrn on 01.02.16 at 11:05 pm

#214 Leo Trollstoy on 01.02.16 at 9:20 pm
It’s not the worst idea to convert USD to CAD at these levels.
——————————
oh man, quit kissing up to Mark!!!!

#236 For those about to flop... on 01.02.16 at 11:09 pm

#224 Smoking Man on 01.02.16 at 10:17 pm
#214 Leo Trollstoy on 01.02.16 at 9:20 pm
I don’t see why anyone would be bullish on the Canadian dollar over the mid-to-long term

The historical ratio of the CAD/USD doesn’t spend too much time below 70 cents. It’s not the worst idea to convert USD to CAD at these levels.
…..

Are you out of your mind, we have A Marxist running Canada, oil sands are finished, Ontario is finished , T2 and Wynne getting there orders from a guy hell bent on De industrialization. Google Gerard Butts.
MAURICE STRONG.

//////////////////////////////

Whoa! Joking Man and Leo Toiletspray not agreeing on something …I did not have this as one of my predictions.
Maybe someone spat in Joking Mans popcorn seems kinda irritated.

M41BC

#237 For those about to flop... on 01.02.16 at 11:16 pm

#223 Mark on 01.02.16 at 10:14 pm
“Millennials set to drive change in real estate market.

They will be a force to be reckoned with as they move into child-bearing years and need more space, observers say.

Another sad example of a RE-pumping newspaper not considering the other side of the story, and that is, Millennials already own record amounts of RE relative to their age, historically speaking (so chances are, they already have that extra bedroom or two). Fertility rates are in the toilet with no change in sight. And the elderly crowd is such a long-term selling force in the market that the need for extra space, if it materializes, will be more than easily satiated.

There’s no reason to believe the price declines of the past 2-3 years won’t continue in the new year. Millennials won’t be riding to the rescue of the market, that’s for sure. Especially with weakening employment.

////////////////////////////
Isn’t the term for these type of articles ” advertorial ” or something like that?
I read the article and that’s how it came across to me.

M41BC

#238 Julie K. on 01.02.16 at 11:30 pm

Yup, like I said, come here to learn.

My thanks to WW1, Bram and FTATF.

Oh and F55BL45BC.

;)

#239 Paul on 01.02.16 at 11:39 pm

New Year’s Eve Uber rides two gals paid over $600 for a 40 km.ride one guy whacked $1100 for his trip.
They call it Surge pricing = no regulation

#240 BC_Doc on 01.02.16 at 11:53 pm

Assessment is in for my house in the North OK. Up 6.5% over July 2014 from $460k to $490k. Nice home we’ve lived in over 10 years. I paid significantly less for it on an MD’s salary. Not sure how folks with less rareified income think they can afford a house here– and home prices in the OK are a bargain compared to the coast.

Which way will the TSX head in 2015? Am pessimistic– worked a short time for the FDIC in the US 25 years ago as a bank examiner. Canadian banks will look good until suddenly one day the regulators go in and decide debt is rancid and should be written down. All of a sudden, Canadian financials won’t look so good. This will be part two of the “One-Two Punch” vs the TSX.

#241 DON on 01.03.16 at 12:03 am

#228 For those about to flop… on 01.02.16 at 10:33 pm

Julie k ,cheer up if you were to go through all the postings and micro analyze every word you would spot lots off mistakes too.
Some people just can’t help themselves correcting people for no good reason.
I’ve read some of your post before and your a smart cookie …you don’t have to prove yourself to anyone on here ,it’s not a competition.
Some subjects I know a bit about and others I know absolutely nothing about.
Run your own race is all I’m saying.
It’s probably not worth much ,but you have my respect.
The more girls on here the better, I hate sausage parties!

M41BC
******************************
I second or third that..

Julie don’t seek approval here – be yourself – use rational fact based arguments and you will be fine. Welcome to the commenting forum. You will need to develop a thick skin. Often, I use bad spelling and incorrect wordsmithing to give the grammar police something to do since they can’t deal with substance.

M44BC

#242 For those about to flop... on 01.03.16 at 12:06 am

#238 Julie K. on 01.02.16 at 11:30 pm
Yup, like I said, come here to learn.

My thanks to WW1, Bram and FTATF.

Oh and F55BL45BC.

;)

///////////////////////////////
What happened to your GAP code ,got some of your postcode in there as well?
That will help the stalkers!

M41BC

#243 Bram on 01.03.16 at 12:20 am

#184 Julie K. on 01.02.16 at 5:07 pm
BC Assessment is out with updated assessments.

Ugh. My land went +31% this year (boo!), but my building -16% (yay!)

#244 Bob S. - In the Toilet on 01.03.16 at 6:03 am

Economy and jobs in the toilet by mid year.

After that, who knows?

Agree with Garth’s list including dog dating site.

Add to his list:

• CMHC and Banks will be bleeding cash every which way and thus, will not withhold foreclosed properties from the market as they have in the past.

• T2 will have no money to help CMHC out if he has a hope in hell of making good on a balanced budget in 4 years time.

• T2s advisor will brag about how many trees, bees, snails and whales have been saved due to a crashing YVR/416 RE market and affected sectors.

________________

Have an excellent 2016 people no matter what happens.

#245 Gone for leavin' on 01.03.16 at 6:21 am

200 bdy sktrn on 01.02.16 at 7:57 pm

a funny thing happened… i happened into a Chinese restaurant for just a moment and as i entered i had an overwhelming sense of being back home in bc. (and the egg rolls were perfect;)

I took my own advice and left Canada recently for sunny Thailand. The equivalent of egg rolls ( and everything else) costs a fifth or less here than in Van-Dump. Income tax is a flat 15%…no EI or CPP to pay ( that saves me around $7000 a year alone) sun shines every day. A degree ans experience pays double what you’ll make in Canada…they’re hungry for experts here. Dinner time and it’s still 90 degrees….nice breeze though. Miller time ….

#246 Ronaldo on 01.03.16 at 6:39 am

Here’s what the big Canadian banks are saying for the markets in 2016. I think I will go with BMO

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/now-heres-a-surprise-notes-of-optimism-for-2016/article27939086/

#247 Ronaldo on 01.03.16 at 7:18 am

On the topic of overpriced houses in Vancouver, here is an interesting one. Only 115 years old.

http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2019268/662-e-7th-avenue-vancouver?property_search=355651415

Sold October 24, 2009 for $1,080,000
Sold May 30, 2015 for $1,710,000

Currently listed at $1,899,000, 36% over assessed value.

July 1st 2015 Assessment $1,395,000.

Seems you just have to throw any price on these things and hope you snag a greater fool.

#248 jess on 01.03.16 at 8:05 am

…will other banks find similar?

“Bank of Montreal investigators found documents that showed one Calgary management company had 150 suspect mortgages from 16 different financial institutions”

http://www.rosen-associates.com/documents/a-cbc-bom.pdf

==============
this story gives new meaning to who are the real “trailer trash”

The mobile-home trap: How a Warren Buffett empire preys on the poor
Originally published April 2, 2015 at 9:30 pm Updated December 15, 2015 at 12:43 pm

Buffett’s mobile-home empire promises low-income Americans the dream of homeownership. But Clayton relies on predatory sales practices, exorbitant fees, and interest rates that can exceed 15 percent, trapping many buyers in loans they can’t afford and in homes that are almost impossible to sell or refinance, an investigation by The Seattle Times and Center for Public Integrity has found.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/a-look-at-berkshire-hathaways-response-to-mobile-home-investigation/
http://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/the-mobile-home-trap-how-a-warren-buffett-empire-preys-on-the-poor/

#249 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.16 at 8:17 am

@#234 Bdy Skytrn
“when the ‘big one’ happens, it will be 400km offshore of VI where the fault is…..”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Ladies and Gentlemen. The Oracle of Earthquakes.

That little shaker was directly beneath Saanich about 35 kms from Van and a lot of people felt it.
I spoke to people that live all over the Lower Mainland and many many people described it as if their house was hit by a truck. I’ve never felt an earthquake here before and that one woke me up out of a deep sleep.
( Not an easy task believe me). We’re over due for a major quake. ie 10,000 dead and 10’s of more thousands homeless. Those east van houses are build pretty tight together. A fire would take out blocks and blocks and no water to stop it.
Glad to know your earthquake insurance will cover the 1.1 million dollar loss.
I’ll see you on the 1st anniversary for a beer at noon in the Split Crow after you relocate . Or wheneever you get your cheque from your insurer. Beers on you . It’ll be a “west coast survivors levy”

#250 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.16 at 8:23 am

Spoke to a friend yesterday.
His cousin in Calgary bought a house a year ago. Wife is ready to pop out the first child. They havnt moved in to the new house yet.
Still working through 300 grand worth of renos while they rent another house………

#251 jess on 01.03.16 at 10:08 am

” The program that is begin extended is the Hardest Hit Fund, which Congress is allocating another $2 billion to homeowners who couldn’t keep up mortgage payments
=======================
First announced in February 2010, the Hardest Hit Fund provides $7.6 billion to the 18 hardest hit states, plus the District of Columbia, to develop locally-tailored programs to assist struggling homeowners in their communities. HHF programs are designed and administered by each state’s Housing Finance Agency (HFA). Most of these programs are aimed at helping unemployed homeowners remain in their homes while they search for new employment and those who owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth. State HFAs have until the end of 2017 to utilize funds allocated under HHF.

The borrowers “Characteristic worksheets” are interesting .For example Data requested in the “Borrower Characteristic” worksheet
for http://michigan.gov/documents/mshda/HFA_MI_Q32015_506864_7.pdf

Hardest Hit Fund State-By-State Information
Each state’s most recent fact sheet, and website are included below. For more information about a state’s Hardest Hit Fund program, please contact the state housing finance agency directly. For information on performance please see the Housing Finance Agency (HFA) Aggregate Report, published quarterly.
https://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/financial-stability/TARP-Programs/housing/Pages/Program-Documents.aspx

aggregate data Q3 2015

https://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/financial-stability/reports/Documents/HFA%20Aggregate%20Q32015%20Report.pdf
Total Assistance Provided to Date
QTD -$240,516,544 CUM $4,497,404,208

Total Number of Unique Borrower Applicants –
QTD 43,815 Cum -569,339

Total Spent on Administrative Support, Outreach, and Counseling
QTD $23,480,194 Cum- $588,822,905

#252 The American on 01.03.16 at 10:44 am

At #185: Acedel, good luck with those predictions of yours. You let us all know how that tuns out for you, okay lil’ guy?

#253 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.16 at 11:13 am

For “bdy skytrn”

Not a bad article for all you Cascadians.

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one

#254 S.Bby on 01.03.16 at 11:30 am

#249 crowdedelevatorfartz
Yes, in his head-up-ass distorted view of things all the seismic upgrades to bridges and schools that have been done are not needed because we are actually safe from quakes.

#255 Not tonight honey on 01.03.16 at 11:40 am

155 Another Albertan on 01.01.16 at 3:02 pm
Parents of a friend put their 100-year-old house in tony Elbow Park up for sale back in June. It was listed at $1.297M. It’s a beautiful home that has been nicely-renovated a few times in the last 40 years. It also remained completely dry during the 2013 flood.

Between June and the end of August, only a handful of showings occurred. An offer was received in August for $1.07M. The realtor instructed the owners to reject “such a lowball offer”. The house remained listed for the fall at $1.2M and received only a handful of showings.

I was informed a few days ago that the house sold before Christmas for $970k. That is a 25% discount to the original listing price, after 6 months on the market.

==========================

Hey Another Albertan!

I think I know which home you are thinking about. My little birdie tells me it sold for $950 (if we are on the same page & I’m pretty sure we are).

Thanks for sharing! too many silly folks are still overpaying!

HNY!
NTH

#256 For those about to flop... on 01.03.16 at 11:40 am

Anyone with some spare time do this quiz about what is going to happen in2016.
I didn’t exactly cover myself in glory only getting 13/20.
Give it a go..

M41BC

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/weekendreads/what-do-you-know-about-the-year-ahead-take-our-2016-quiz/ar-BBo1Xah?li=AAggNb9&ocid=mailsignout

#257 Russ on 01.03.16 at 11:54 am

For those about to flop… on 01.03.16 at 12:06 am

#238 Julie K. on 01.02.16 at 11:30 pm
Yup, like I said, come here to learn.

My thanks to WW1, Bram and FTATF.

Oh and F55BL45BC.

;)

///////////////////////////////
What happened to your GAP code ,got some of your postcode in there as well?
That will help the stalkers!

M41BC
========================

Hey Forthose,

It’s good code since it includes her dog:
Black Lab, corrected for “dog years”

Cheers, R
M5*BC

#258 to_be_frank on 01.03.16 at 12:19 pm

“ISIS shocks everybody.”

Good news prediction – ISIS will be largely or totally defeated in Syria in 2016, by highly effective YPG (Syrian Kurdish militia) who seal off Turkish border smothering ISIS from lifeline of supplies and foreign recruits. Ditto for al-Qaida affiliate Al-Nusra. ISIS will thereby decline in Iraq as well. Some semblance of stability will return to the region in 2017 as de-facto partition of the region ensues on ethnic/religious divides.

#259 Hope & Ruin on 01.03.16 at 12:49 pm

#253 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.16 at 11:13 am
For “bdy skytrn”

Not a bad article for all you Cascadians.

Now that’s what I call a doomer article. Really good read though.

#260 Ontario's Left Coast on 01.03.16 at 12:50 pm

#216 Centurion on 01.02.16 at 9:38 pm
About that article again: “In the end, they resorted to a bully bid — a bid $5,000 over asking price, and before the deadline for offers — and snagged a 1,400-square-foot, three-bedroom townhouse near Taunton Rd. and Anderson St. for $380,000.” —
THAT was supposed to be a bully bid?

If they got the place they wanted, I’d say it was a smart bid.

#261 sue on 01.03.16 at 1:11 pm

#258 All progress against ISIS is because of my man Vlad Putin. Also have to get a Republican in office to work with Russia. Obama can’t leave soon enough.

#262 JulieK. on 01.03.16 at 1:39 pm

Is it stalkers or is it stockers, FTATF?

Just a little perplexed because I understand spelling herein is, at times, purposefully misspelled — just to throw the smell of blog dogs off.

If I have a choice, I will take the latter.

;)

F55BL45BC

#263 MilaMoya44 on 01.03.16 at 2:20 pm

#206 Smoking Man on 01.02.16 at 8:57 pm

Star Wars sucked.

So I watched Star Wars, Very Painful, Cultural Marxism shoved into my 3d glasses. Very disappointing.

The writers used some shit in my book, now I need to take it out, even though I wrote it like 4 years ago.

Don’t want to be accused of being unoriginal.
—————

Its just a movie – The galaxy of star wars is made up and does not exist at all – much like your book.

#264 JimH on 01.03.16 at 3:18 pm

Brian Shannon has an excellent video out with interesting insights into the 2015 market with some excellent advice that can be adapted and applied to just about any trading or investing style.

Enjoy!

http://alphatrends.net/archives/2015/12/30/2015-losing-stocks-lessons-learned-webinar-recording/

#265 For those about to flop... on 01.03.16 at 3:44 pm

My predictable prediction is that the predictions in the comment section are predictably wrong!

Go Seahawks!

M41BC

#266 JimH on 01.03.16 at 4:03 pm

#256 For those about to flop… on 01.03.16 at 11:40 am

Well, you beat me!

However, Maclean’s seems to know something about some “Femian” raids that I’d never heard of.

I guessed they had something to do with those pesky Fenians???? Do I still get credit?

#267 For those about to flop... on 01.03.16 at 4:13 pm

#262 JulieK. on 01.03.16 at 1:39 pm
Is it stalkers or is it stockers, FTATF?

Just a little perplexed because I understand spelling herein is, at times, purposefully misspelled — just to throw the smell of blog dogs off.

If I have a choice, I will take the latter.

;)

F55BL45BC

//://///////////////////////////
Ha! I would take the latter too!
What I meant was as Russ alluded to , what are the extra letters in your GAP code for?
Don’t give out too much information about yourself just
Gender .
Age .
Province.
That’s all you need ,no invasion of privacy.
Just helps to see where the other person is coming from.
Have a good day.

M41BC

#268 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.16 at 4:22 pm

@#254 S. Bby
“Yes, in his head-up-ass distorted view of things ”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I was thinking of “head in the sand” .
But I like your description better.

#269 For those about to flop... on 01.03.16 at 4:33 pm

#266 JimH on 01.03.16 at 4:03 pm
#256 For those about to flop… on 01.03.16 at 11:40 am

Well, you beat me!

However, Maclean’s seems to know something about some “Femian” raids that I’d never heard of.

I guessed they had something to do with those pesky Fenians???? Do I still get credit?

//////////////////////////////
Yeah I got that question wrong 3 times!
It just seemed too obvious.
I probably would have got higher if I had not second guessed myself a couple of times.
Peace.

M41BC

#270 saskatoon on 01.03.16 at 4:33 pm

#263 MilaMoya44

as propaganda, it is VERY real.

#271 Cristian on 01.03.16 at 4:47 pm

Those who have knowledge don’t predict; those who predict don’t have knowledge.

Lao Tzu, a 6th century Chinese philosopher.

#272 april on 01.03.16 at 4:51 pm

#226 – There you go… I knew it would come.

#273 Response to smoking man on 01.03.16 at 5:36 pm

Hey #230 smoking man,

You’re not crazy about what you saw in Star Wars. Check out this site discussing those issues you raised:

http://therationalmale.com/2015/12/21/storytelling/