Recyled virgins

BRA

When Kevin was cruising condo porn on Zoocasa yesterday, he came across something which looked oddly familiar. A two-bed, three-bath, one-parking job in the hipster Element building in DT Toronto. The site indicated the $489,000 listing had been added 29 days earlier, but Kevin knew otherwise.

In fact, he’d viewed the same condo for sale on the same site back in June, when it has been posted ‘about one month ago.’ But then it had a different MLS number and a different price – $500,000.

“I’m sure you already have a ton of these examples but just wanted to highlight some screen shots where properties are listed (and then re-listed again) – to avoid them becoming stale,” he tells me. “As a potential buyer, I think this is pretty critical information as it shows that the current owner is probably under some stress given his days on market is already well north of 90 (at least). At any rate, I’m just annoyed at how MLS/zoocasa never provides full disclosure on any of the properties – as when the property eventually sells… it will have a DOM of something much, much lower.”

Welcome to the murky, scary world of real estate stats, where realtors and their cartels work hard at misinforming and deceiving consumers. As you may have noticed this week, housing data-pooping is big news. The MSM has finally discovered that organized real estate routinely massages numbers to create the impression of eternally rising markets. Tools include allowing double of tripling listings of the same house on multiple boards, counting private sales in with ones realtors handle, quietly revising year-old stats so the new ones look better and deliberately masking price trends with the ingenious HPI Frankenumber.

But perhaps there’s no deceit more irritating to people like Kevin than taking tired old dog listings and pretending they’re pups. In places like Toronto and (to a lesser degree) Vancouver, it’s common practice. Some realtors rebrand their listings every thirty days, just so they’ll show up in a ‘recent’ search on the MLS site. Others create a fresh listing with every price reduction, getting a shiny new MLS number and bringing it out as a recycled virgin.

Why does this matter?

First, buyers are prevented from knowing the number of days a property’s been sitting around. This is worthy information if you’re searching for motivated sellers, or like the look of a place but don’t know about the toxic, killer mold that was recently covered with swimming pool paint in the furnace room. Listings with long DOMs always have a story behind him – priced too high, or flaws that repelled other potential buyers. But when every listing is New! it’s a blatant attempt to withhold relevant information.

Second, the stats that local real estate cartels collect never take into consideration previous listings. Take suite 303 in the building below (Merton Street, in mid-town Toronto), for example:

MERTON

The two-bedroom, 1,200-foot condo was originally listed for $649,000, where it languished for four long months. Then the agents, Sue Lee and Ron Chicora, relisted it at a more reasonable price – $575,000 – and the market responded. It sold two weeks later for $572,000.

How was the sale reported? Not as fetching only 88% of the asking price after 141 tortuous days on the market, but as a hot commodity that went for 99.5% of the asking price in a scant 17 days.

Now, imagine if all the relistings, moldy oldies and fleabag properties which eventually found buyers were reported accurately. Suddenly we’d have a far more accurate snapshot of the direction and velocity of the market, with trendings that could help sellers find the right asking price and guide buyers frame their offers. We might also finally get meaningful data reports from real estate boards, instead of the fictionalized junk many now publish.

This week that elfin deity we know as F had a session on the housing market with a slew of economists. One conclusion that leaked out: nobody actually knows what’s going on with real estate. Not the eggheads. Not the Fster. And certainly not the consumer. There’s simply no good, credible, dependable, non-biased data available, because all current stats must first be laundered by the industry itself.

This also opens up the issue of foreign ownership and the influence on prices of all those horny Mainland Chinese with their suitcases of money from Guangdong. Are they really forcing good little beavers out of their ponds, or is this a yellow peril thing used by realtors to scare us into buying? If the cartels can spend unlimited amounts of money creating elaborate, obfuscating indices, surely they can tabulate simple citizenship. Or the number of speculators. Or cough up accurate data on sales trends.

Days ago Goldman Sachs in New York looked north in dismay. Canada, it said, is careening towards a sharp fall in housing prices.

I expect the last place you’ll ever hear about it, is here.

(Speaking of phantom listings… Alex in Sudbury sends this along. Same house, two listings, two prices.)

phantom

188 comments ↓

#1 sheane wallace on 10.29.13 at 8:33 pm

political correctness and bullshit.
So canadian.

#2 Randy on 10.29.13 at 8:34 pm

It pays to lie…..

#3 JSS on 10.29.13 at 8:36 pm

Garth –
Are you concerned with the recent run-up of the Canadian stock market?

The TSX is up 11% this year. The S&P is ahead 26%. Be careful what you worry about. — Garth

#4 Rapier Wit on 10.29.13 at 8:41 pm

Garth,

Would you please post the link to the Goldman Sacs analysis and report?

Enquiring minds want to know.

#5 TnT on 10.29.13 at 8:41 pm

This also opens up the issue of foreign ownership and the influence on prices of all those horny Mainland Chinese with their suitcases of money from Guangdong. Are they really forcing good little beavers out of their ponds, or is this a yellow peril thing used by realtors to scare us into buying?

**********

More buyers are more buyers no matter where they come from.

1 seller to 1 Canadian buyer ratio keeps an even flow.

1 seller to 2 Canadian buyers creates a sellers market.

1 seller to 1 Foreign and 2 Canadian buyers etc… you can see it does not take much to tip the scales.

#6 Retired Boomer - WI on 10.29.13 at 8:41 pm

Recycled Virgins? I think I dated her once.

#7 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 10.29.13 at 8:46 pm

The scary thing is that Flaherty and his cohort of financial “experts” dont know whats going on in the Real Estate markets due to unreliable data……

When the entire thing goes for a turd they are gonna look pretty damn stupid ,incompetant or lazy.

Either way. I hope this all transpires 6 months prior to a Federal Election…….

#8 Mike on 10.29.13 at 8:47 pm

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101150382
Goldman Sachs’ warning Re: Canadian Real Estate

#9 Silver on 10.29.13 at 8:48 pm

Property tax assessments are created from the Boards information… all claims of property value, and the supporting documents originates from the real estate boards and their “honest” paperwork numbers.
Property Tax base truth problem…. maybe…
Muni bonds are created on these claims of properties worth…. I believe…

Silver

#10 Smoking Man on 10.29.13 at 8:49 pm

Garth hanging out on bay street, you of all people should know by now, you always bet against a Goldman Call.

We are muppets.

As far as real estate, my crystal ball ain’t to shaby, mind you I’m the only dude on bay street from that gives the mind of the irrational herd a lot more weight in prediction models.

Everyone else Delta Gama Vega Theta.

Ah the schooled.

#11 TnT on 10.29.13 at 8:52 pm

#4 Rapier Wit

Funny name considering the question….

Google is your friend

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101150382

#12 Chopper on 10.29.13 at 8:52 pm

Thanks for exposing these crooks, I can say that you are 100% correct Garth with your take on the RE cartel. I have seen lots of listings with no DOM and I ask my agent why some listings have DOM and some don’t. As a buyer that is critical to me.

I hope the property virgins come here and learn before buying, but I am afraid the greater fools will always be around ad herd mentality will continue until it all falls apart.

#13 Paul on 10.29.13 at 8:53 pm

Garth
Obviously The source for the listings quoted was able to find the length of time on the market and sold price. I know it goes against the grain of the blog dogs but if a seller or buyer requested the history of any home listed or not from a realtor they would get the information . How do people set their price when they sell privately or through a discount brokerage? They get a current market printout from an agent for free.

#14 mark on 10.29.13 at 8:53 pm

Like in Australia when you try and get a picture of foreign buyers – it takes a freedom of information request and when the report is released it’s heavily redacted.

Suspicious behaviour creates suspicion.

#15 Get Big Brotha Outta Here on 10.29.13 at 8:54 pm

The flip side is:
Maybe the current process is already too intrusive and transparent. If I sell my car, I am not required to share all of this information. Why should I have to give up my right to privacy when buying or selling a house?

Some people say that full transparency will solve the problem. I say that full transparency leads to a market where people buy and sell houses like a commodity instead of treating houses like places to live.

#16 Toronto_CA on 10.29.13 at 8:55 pm

No comment on the RBC Survey about the 21% 1 year increase in consumer debt (non-mortgage)? I thought you’d be all over that tonight, Garth. The MSM picked up on it later this afternoon.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canadian-consumer-debt-levels-up-21-rbc-survey-shows-1.2287364

I’m betting a lot of it is to do with the increase in car loans of late. Car sales are at record levels an it is common to go 5, 6 or 7 year amortization these days.

#17 Liquid on 10.29.13 at 8:57 pm

Hopefully more people are taking off their rose tinted glasses now to see the real estate market what it really is; assets bolstered up by excess credit and in some cases, foreign capital. I watched the CBC’s interview with CREA’s Gregory Klump last night. Your name was brought up and maybe Ross Kay’s as well, and questions were raised about inconsistencies and duplicate listings that many of us are already aware of thanks to your blog. It was funny to see Klump dodge all the questions and try to discredit the discrepancies haha. Smart people know CREA’s numbers are not credible. But there are still a lot of “fools” buying the story being sold by the industry.

#18 Musty Basement Dweller on 10.29.13 at 9:07 pm

I think the practice of re-listing a house, via a new listing, after a couple of months of being unsold is common practice on Vancouver Island, my real estate agent advised me to do that when I sold my house in Nanaimo about 6 months ago. Fortunately it sold and I didn’t need to do that.

And the practice of swimming pool paint to cover housing defects..wow Garth I hadn’t heard of that one but it makes sense. I was a slum landlord for a while and didn’t even think of that. Brilliant idea, but in a sick way of course.

#19 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.29.13 at 9:07 pm

Yet another problem with realtors… they might be moonlighting as porn stars. That guy in the realtor ad is surely Randy Spears:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randy_Spears

#20 Victor V on 10.29.13 at 9:09 pm

PRICE DROP #5 – 87 Summerhill Avenue – SUMMERHILL

http://themashcanada.blogspot.ca/2013/10/price-drop-5-87-summerhill-avenue.html

I first posted this 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom row house on a 15.67 x 85 foot lot at 87 Summerhill Avenue just over a year ago.

The price was $1,995,000.

I thought it was a typo.

$2 million for a narrow row house with barely a backyard and no parking!?!

The price was dropped a couple months later to $1,949,000.

Ummm….that wasn’t going to do much.

Still no sale and the price was dropped again in April to $1,874,000.

It didn’t sell and the price was dropped again in May to $1,775,000.

Again, no sale and the price was dropped in July to $1,725,000.

Now, a year after it was first listed…

The price has been dropped AGAIN…

To $1,624,900.

#21 blue steel on 10.29.13 at 9:09 pm

Re: #9 silver

Your comment, “Property tax assessments are created from the Boards information… all claims of property value, and the supporting documents originates from the real estate boards and their “honest” paperwork numbers” is inaccurate.

Property tax assessments are based on sales….sales registered to the Land Registry office in each province. That sale amount is not cooked.

Depending on the province, statistical models are created based on these sales to arrive at an assessment value for each property.

#22 Musty Basement Dweller on 10.29.13 at 9:11 pm

#13 Paul on 10.29.13 at 8:53 pm
Garth
Obviously The source for the listings quoted was able to find the length of time on the market and sold price. I know it goes against the grain of the blog dogs but if a seller or buyer requested the history of any home listed or not from a realtor they would get the information . How do people set their price when they sell privately or through a discount brokerage? They get a current market printout from an agent for free.
================================
What is so special about the real estate agents that only they can get at the historical information. How does that help the consumer? The real estate agent cartel and their practices in Canada are obviously a huge conflict of interest that should have the boots put to it.

#23 Ray on 10.29.13 at 9:15 pm

The first thing the Vancouver bears learned over at Vancouver Price Drop is that DOM means nothing. You need to completely ignore all reference to it on all reports and all websites anywhere… except VPD which corrects its listings DOM by last purchase date and a nice algorithm so that you can once again try to understand the market.

#24 Spectacle on 10.29.13 at 9:18 pm

Thank You Garth.

I finished a complete renovation for a client, followed up to see what it was listed/sold at. Realtors listings had about 7 listings in his site, there was mine, listed twice! Once as sold, ( what the..) no price! The other with the new lower price, going on now 2.5 months. Client really not happy.

Also, kind of got lost in rational above of foreign vs local buyer/seller discussion. ( it’s me not you ) . Brand spankin new residence with coach house. Been sold 3 times already since last summer! Noted that month on lic plates of vehicles moving in coincide roughly with the sales month of residence sales date! Thought the buy your way into canada loophole closed. Or is it cost of doing the “laundry” these days?? Nice house though.

Update on my bank client discussions: he states that offshore clients are buying/holding whole blocks usually held for development. He facilitates $ transfers . Are those purchases categorized differently than retail residential sales?? Thanks

#25 live within your means on 10.29.13 at 9:19 pm

So glad we’re not in that rat race. It’s nice not to have to constantly worry about a bill coming in & how & when one can pay it.

OT – just want to say how pleased I am with the type of chiros treatments I’m receiving. I had really painful sciatica for several months. Started treatment July 24 & now can get up in the morning without any back pain. I went for 3 treatments each week for 6 weeks, then 2 a wk for 6 weeks. This will be my last wk for 2 and then start 1 a week for another 6 weeks & then followups. I do 4 repetitions for 15 seconds of 3 exercises each day at home. In case anyone suffers from severe disc degeneration, etc. check out this type of chiro therapy. http://www.elmsdalechiro.com/meet-the-doctors/ I checked the technology on an American web site before I committed as I paid up front for 53 treatments as it saved me $$. They offered 3 payment options. Also a friend, treated by them, saw the state I was in & recommended them to me.

I had been to many phios & chiros in the past & got no relief. Saw an ortho surgeon this summer. Don’t want to go that route. I know I’ll never be able to do the things I did yrs ago, but at least I can so some basic daily stuff.

#26 Goldie on 10.29.13 at 9:29 pm

“Are they really forcing good little beavers out of their ponds, or is this a yellow peril thing used by realtors to scare us into buying?”

- Both.

#27 Nemesis on 10.29.13 at 9:32 pm

What can I say? The Creative on that TREB “BRA” UrinalOneSheet could really use a tweak or two…

Let’s start with the TAG… How about, “Support is a beautiful thing… ask one of our Realtors™ to show you their BRA today.”

Next we have to hire today’s equivalent of Eva Herzagovina and Mario Testino…

Something like this perhaps:

http://tinyurl.com/pwo4u4d

#28 Lucky Sometimes on 10.29.13 at 9:36 pm

Banks, Real Estate Cartels, Developers et al, knows no bounds to feed their greed on the doe eyed middle class dream to be financially independent.
Following is “Banksters for Dummies” clip on how the GFC occurred, some still applicable to today’s Canadian RE market.

https://youtube.googleapis.com/v/lLAFhTjsQHw&sns=em

#29 X on 10.29.13 at 9:37 pm

Seeing as most Canadians have most of their wealth in RE, do you think that the gov’t will ever regulate it?

I wouldn’t trust the markets if companies could make up their own revenue numbers and report it as such every month.

#30 Lucky Sometimes on 10.29.13 at 9:42 pm

Ooops, wrong link. Try this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqUGoVez8xg#t=11

#31 Jas G on 10.29.13 at 9:52 pm

Garth, you are cute and thank you for enlightening us. And no, I am not gay.

#32 not 1st on 10.29.13 at 9:52 pm

Garth, I’ve obtained some top secret footage from a top condo developers office;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AB-iLaEisU

#33 Samour on 10.29.13 at 9:53 pm

Hahaha we checked out an apartment in that building on Merton last year.
Didn’t end up buying. Another building was going up right across from it which should be an enough of a reason to dissuade anyone with common sense. Dust and noise for years to come accompany that purchase

#34 Drill Baby Drill on 10.29.13 at 9:54 pm

Garth please keep it up. I can see were you are going to reach critical mass on the subject of “Franken numbers” very shortly. It is starting to gain a lot of traction and I am sensing that the powers that be at the TREB and CREB are begining to sweat. It will take a market drop to reveal that the Treb and Creb have no clothes.

#35 Randman on 10.29.13 at 9:57 pm

Yup, America is great! a great place to invest…great economy! Even if it was true ……this should make everyone sick and think twice about doing business with these renegade bullies. It’s time to boycott America in all ways and forms…

“Spying by America’s National Security Agency does not have “anything to do with terrorism,” Glenn Greenwald, the activist journalist who broke the story, told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Monday.

“Is Angela Merkel a terrorist? Are sixty or seventy million Spanish or French citizens terrorists? Are there terrorists at Petrobras?” he asked rhetorically. “This is clearly about political power and economic espionage, and the claim that this is all about terrorism is seen around the world as what it is, which is pure deceit.”

The latest revelations of American spying involve the alleged taping of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s personal mobile phone and that the U.S. gathered data about 60 million Spanish phone calls in a single month, which comes after similar reports from France.

Greenwald, formerly of The Guardian, has been systematically publishing reports of secret American intelligence gathering since he was given a treasure trove of leaks by former intelligence officer Edward Snowden.”

http://amanpour.blogs.cnn.com/2013/10/28/nsa-spying-has-nothing-to-do-with-terrorism-greenwald-tells-amanpour/?hpt=hp_inthenews

#36 detalumis on 10.29.13 at 9:59 pm

In my part of south Oakville there are two kinds of houses tear-down bungalows and mini-mansions. The bungalows are listed on MLS under one number and sell quickly, people want the lot to build their dream home. The already built dream homes are listed under 2 and sometimes 3 MLS numbers and takes many, many months to sell, there is a huge glut of these. When one sells I am sure it is recorded in the stats as if it was 2 or 3 sales.

#37 Dmitry on 10.29.13 at 10:01 pm

One more example
18 Hart St, Richmond Hill with price $859,900 was sitting on the market since the beginning of summer. Eventually it was sold in October
Sold: $842,180
List: $799,000
Orig Price: $799,000 105 % List
DOM: 7 Contract: 9/30/2013 Sold: 10/7/20
You can see it here
http://www.torontomls.net/PublicWeb/CL_CF.asp?link_no=50993537.206100&t=l&fm=F

#38 Debtfree on 10.29.13 at 10:05 pm

Lying is the new norm in Canada . The prime minister is leading this new and CLEAR direction . Why before long lying will be taught in schools across the land . The F..in deity can now make up any figure he or his master wants . The problem as I see it for us old guys is that the truth is hard to forget and lies are so diddly gosh darn hard to remember . And if you can’t keep a straight face while you are lying . Just do what Steve does . Freeze your whole head with Botox.

#39 peter on 10.29.13 at 10:05 pm

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/10/29/recyled-virgins/#comment-268368

I will jump into this house….when price drop to 375,000…

#40 never bet againat goldman on 10.29.13 at 10:06 pm

If Goldman sacks says Canada housing market is going to crash you know it’s going to crash and crash hard.

#41 Squidly77 on 10.29.13 at 10:10 pm

Perhaps one day, the media outlets that ok the copy and pasting of the realtor generated, confused, undocumented, sexed up and just plain unpatriotic statistics realize that it’s their own sons and daughters that are being deceived, they’ll think twice before publishing them.

It’s really sad that so many hard working Canadian families are going to be hurt just so some ass at un-Canadian rein can make a profit. It’s shameful.

On a bright note, I am so happy and extremely satisfied that this is now becoming mass public knowledge.

Is it sad or funny that realtors attack this blog on a regular basis.

I just love reading realtor blogs when they attempt to dis-prove the smoke and mirror stats, because soon, very soon the whole thing is going to be exposed for what it is, a shim sham Ponzi scam.

#42 Mike on 10.29.13 at 10:11 pm

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/10/29/garth-turner-housing-crea_n_4171093.html
Garth Turner: Canadian Housing Data Unreliable, Needs Regulation

#43 Hollywood on 10.29.13 at 10:14 pm

Good article by Garth. The question I have in regards to real estate stats – how does the United States or other countries report monthly numbers? Are there auditing controls or some other system in place to keeping the statistics more known to the consumer? Or are there reports similar to Canada. I would be curious – any answer Garth?

#44 Smoking Man on 10.29.13 at 10:16 pm

Money money everyone obsessed.

On the train, everyone on the dumb phones, me observing the herd, books they read, news papers of choice, sections they tead. And let’s not forget rating ladies, as to yes or no.

Their is no calculation, just a feel, a connection to the energy they emit.

That’s how you become a master of predictions.

#45 BallsofSteel on 10.29.13 at 10:25 pm

“Although the bust is over in America, bubbles are developing elsewhere…especially where they speak English. According to The Economist, house prices are 20% too high in Britain, 46% over fair value in Australia and 74% over fair value in Canada.”

I reckon RE in Melbourne & Sydney is insane but if the above quote is accurate then a day of reckoning for all of us cannot be far down the track.

#46 Franco on 10.29.13 at 10:27 pm

I have said consistently over the last 4 years that housing in Canada will not bust, the RE market will only slow down or a slight drop in prices will occur. I think Goldman Sachs is wrong and my batting record so far is 100%. So how come nobody asks me about my great insight into the RE market in Canada?

#47 not 1st on 10.29.13 at 10:35 pm

I surprised that Goldman took time out of their daily raping and pillaging of the economy to give us a friendly warning about our housing market. You know they will be making gobs of cash as the market rides the pines into oblivion.

#48 Buy High? on 10.29.13 at 10:47 pm

Garth,

You’ve often refer to a conservative portfolio returning 7%. After the run up we’ve had in the markets, do you think it will be possible in 2014?

Why not? Equity exposure is but one portion of a balanced, diversified portfolio. — Garth

#49 Chip N. Scraper on 10.29.13 at 10:53 pm

Brilliant on the swimming pool paint!

The future trendy thing for savvy buyer’s will be to bring paint analysis kits and chisels when inspecting potential purchases……. a bit of reverse forensics “borrowed” from a pool site (below).
————————————-
“How can you tell what sort of paint is on your swimming pool ?
The best way is to bring in or send in some crumbs of your pool surface by scraping them off with a knife or chisel… we will then put those crumbs into some xylene (ie chlorinated rubber thinners) and see what happens… If then paint completely dissolves it is a chlorinated rubber paint,… if it stays hard and stiff it is most likely a two pack epoxy type paint,… if it goes soft and wrinkly it is probably a water based acrylic paint,… if it is gritty like sand then it is not a paint but a render… like marblesheen”

Happy chipping to all and cue the CSI music!

#50 mark on 10.29.13 at 10:55 pm

I just watched, Gregory Klump on LOLX, wowee what an arrogant so and so.

And his arguments bring to mind the old line from George Constanza – “Jerry, just remember, it’s not a lie if you believe it”

#51 Smoking Man on 10.29.13 at 10:55 pm

#46 Franco on 10.29.13 at 10:27 pm
I have said consistently over the last 4 years that housing in Canada will not bust, the RE market will only slow down or a slight drop in prices will occur. I think Goldman Sachs is wrong and my batting record so far is 100%. So how come nobody asks me about my great insight into the RE market in Canada?
…..

Who are you, no one listens to you. Your not the Smoking Man.

Posts void of challenging the alphabet without going microscopic before the letter A and light years past Z, you’re a nobody.

Learn grasshopper, I’m the best.

#52 shane on 10.29.13 at 11:03 pm

Garth, Canada housing prices need to come down at least 30-40% in certain city’s, Calgary,Toronto, most of GTA,Van.

#53 Irrevocable Date on 10.29.13 at 11:04 pm

Realtors WILL often request a new Listing # when a listing agreement is extended, because they want it to catch the eye of fellow realtors checking out ‘new’ listings. No argument there, it’s the oldest trick in the book. But anyone who thinks that their hapless local realtor is tampering with DOM stats is almost certainly giving him/her too much credit.

Many agents haven’t a clue how to check their email, let alone massage MLS stats. Need a laugh sometime? Ask your realtor what his/her company website URL is.

Many agents require office support staff to print listings for them because they are taxed to the limit to even open a browser, let alone navigate that bad boy all the way to Filogix and then (of all things) remember their password.

Many agents don’t know how those crazy digital photos get from their cameras to their websites (or how to direct a client to their website without referring to their business card).

Many agents don’t know how to use their office fax machine. Ever have someone fax you 7 blank pages with nothing but a time-stamp on top? That’s probably a Realtor.

Many agents don’t know how to produce a Notice of Fulfillment on a Sunday morning without pulling a 67 year old breast cancer survivor out of the middle of her church service and having her drive across town to meet them and their heathen clients at the office for the 15 seconds needed to print the document.

Many agents with years in the business don’t know how to construct a simple, one line condition that says what they need it to say.

Some (I didn’t say ‘many’ this time) agents don’t understand that if they present 2 cash offers to a seller and counter them both, it could lead to problems.

Some seasoned realtors don’t know that HST in Ontario is 13% or that it applies to their commissions.

My experience is, and always has been, that, when an Agreement becomes unconditional (or 3 weeks later, when the Realtor finally gets around to turning in his/her paperwork), the office ‘deal secretary’ reports the sale on Filogix (or whatever) under the current Listing #. The Realtor’s job at that point is to simply stand back and watch in stunned disbelief, marveling at the things computers can do these days, but giving not a nanosecond of thought to how they could skew the DOM in their favour (or even what DOM means).

The fact that MLS stats are sketchy is not in question, but whatever you do, give your realtor a break and don’t blame him. He probably doesn’t even know what the hell you’re talking about.

#54 JWD on 10.29.13 at 11:05 pm

Great blog today Garth! I sincerely hope voices get louder and something can be done. The RE industry is full of lies and manipulation. It seems the government needs to step in and force some drastic changes.

Try zillow in the US. The information on property details is far more transparent.

#55 also mark on 10.29.13 at 11:08 pm

Garth,

With your recent Globe coverage, all of the important people are now watching. Keep up the great to-the-point articles like this. Fraud can only continue as long as people remain ignorant.

#56 fewlish on 10.29.13 at 11:13 pm

Greetings from Australia!

http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/milliondollar-first-home-20131026-2w8ch.html

#57 Mrs Hubris on 10.29.13 at 11:20 pm

#18 Musty Basement Dweller ‘I think the practice of re-listing a house, via a new listing, after a couple of months of being unsold is common practice on Vancouver Island’
………………………………
Certainly recognised practice in Victoria and Saanich too. Whereas small reductions in price usually appear as legitimate downward price changes (standard procedure to tempt the naïve buyer – list high and reduce by minor increments), we’ve regularly seen stale listings disappear and re emerge later as new listings at a lower price – sometimes several times. Large price reductions in particular can be concealed this way.

NB If it’s routine practice to manipulate (falsify) the data and the media simply regurgitate what they’re told, how exactly will we know there’s a downturn?

#58 wykidajlo on 10.29.13 at 11:21 pm

Only significant drop in RE will occur when unemployment hits the wall. Otherwise ppl will not eat but still pay the mortgage

#59 mls watch on 10.29.13 at 11:26 pm

In Vancouver, on can find a lot of places that allegedly sold the first week they were on the market for their exact asking price. Obviously, they were delisted and re-listed on the day the offer was accepted. So much make up…

#60 Joe on 10.29.13 at 11:26 pm

Stockholm syndrome methods, too much to lose.
The banks lie and RE cartels lie.
Thick as theives.

#61 Shawn on 10.29.13 at 11:46 pm

GOLDEN MIS REPRESENTATIONS

Days ago Goldman Sachs in New York looked north in dismay. Canada, it said, is careening towards a sharp fall in housing prices.

****************************************

Not hardly did Goldman Sachs say any such thing. An economist, one of how many? said it.

The notion that individual Goldman Sachs analysts speak for the whole giant bank is preposterous.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101150382

CNN also uses the misleading headline Golmans says…

Sensationalist Journalism, it’s a more exciting headline than the truth, lone economist working for Goldman Sachs says:

CNN says:

Adding its voice to a growing chorus of concern, a report from Hui Shan, an economist at Goldman, late last week warned: “what goes up can keep going up, but then tends to come down.”

Interesting, apparently Hui Shan is an “it” and is in fact the embodiment of Goldman Sachs the corporation…

Hilarious…

#62 angela on 10.29.13 at 11:49 pm

I’m sure this kind of reporting doesn’t happen in the states BTW the once proud and innovative super high production country like the states now just flips burgers and serves drinks to each other according to some stats restaurant business is still limping along ,so after college you can become a waiter/waitress/cook . ain’t the recovery awsome .I have a lot of family there and they all say things are really tough

#63 Insider on 10.29.13 at 11:49 pm

Department of Finance has models that show a market correction of 35% in 8 months based on oversupply in the Toronto condo market and foreigners pulling out. Finance pegs foreign ownership of Toronto condos at 25%.

#64 The Dude on 10.29.13 at 11:49 pm

Yeah I can personally confirm this one. Originally listed my DT Toronto, 610sqft condo for 429000 in early sept. last year. No action… Re-listed at 424000 then 419000 then 409000. Sold for 398000 late feb this year at under 60 DOM.

Big difference between 60 and 180 DOM however I am still quite stoked it sold and actually didn’t even want to meet the buyer cause I just feel too sorry for him.

Side note*. Taking floor level into account, I did quite well with 398. 429 was a very greedy opener.

#65 coastal on 10.29.13 at 11:52 pm

Just a minor blip in the Victoria housing boom, or is that crash ? This house is down over $7 million from first listing two years ago at $13.5 million,now at $5.8 million, over 50% dump.

http://www.joshuakennon.com/13-5-million-ocean-side-estate-in-british-columbia/

How the mighty have fallen. Guess the Global BC/Asian helicopter deal didn’t work out after all. Ouch !

http://hatterking.ca/mylistings.html/details-31863704

#66 mls watch on 10.29.13 at 11:53 pm

One example:
6973 QUEBEC ST
Listed Sep 16/13
Sale Date Sep 17/13
Original Price $942,000
Sale Price $942,000

How strange is this ?

Some other agents are smarter: there is a few days difference between listed and sold, and a few $1000 difference between asking and sold price.

#67 benchwarmers on 10.30.13 at 12:00 am

Was it just me or did ol’ Klumpy look a little stressed in that CBC interview?
Keep up the good work Garth.

#68 2CentsCdn on 10.30.13 at 12:00 am

I think it’s a sad day when the people with only a 3-5% stake in the game (RE industry’s commission) are controlling and steering it. In the normal business world … the one with the money (buyer) is king …. and the one with the huge asset for sale (seller) should be not far behind. The RE Industry has built quite a racket for themselves having neither. But many realize the world is wising up to them and their games. A very successful friend of mine says the secret to easy money making in life is to somehow get between and interested buyer and an interested seller ….. and skim as much as you can.

#69 Doberman on 10.30.13 at 12:03 am

Gartho babe good point.

I was sold on foreign money driving Canadian real estate but ya you would think there must be numbers on this to confirm it.
Now if we can just get our hands on info only the government has.

#70 Tedfiftyfour on 10.30.13 at 12:12 am

Gartho! Your are confused. There is no such thing as a private listing on MLS , none. I challenge you to publish one listing that is private, not MLS listed or represented by a brokerage that is published on the MLS. Perhaps your interpration of lower serviced listings such as mere listings are in your opinion private, however you are incorrect. If published on the MLS it is an MLS listing and as such is reported as an MLS Sale. This may not suit your personal agenda but it is what it is.

#71 "Callgirl" on 10.30.13 at 12:18 am

#6 Retired Boomer–So many serious posts today, I had a good laugh! Thanks

And then I clicked on the Goldman Sachs link provided this morning and the banner ad over the article advertised “Wicked” “Celebrating ten years on Broadway.” Ha!

And then there was Kommy Kim from this morning that reminded me not to take myself too seriously. I looked over and realized I DO have a Roomba that can
do the whole apartment without recharging! Hilarious!

Great job on the interview and thanks for making this blog both informative, and a really fun place to visit.

#72 meslippery on 10.30.13 at 12:22 am

If I could sell my place for a million, I am 53 and one day maybe. Close to the US drink food and gas.
Maybe.

http://www.drewloholdings.com/apartments-for-rent/details/marina-park-place-iii/sarnia-ontario

#73 Robbie on 10.30.13 at 12:24 am

As a Realtor who works just with Buyers, I always give my Buyers the entire history of a listing and check the Assessment records to see if there was a sale that didn’t go through MLS. The re-listing of properties only works if the Buyer’s Realtor doesn’t provide the history. If you are a Buyer you should make it clear to your Realtor that you want that information for all listings you are interested in! Send the request by email or in writing so you have a record of the instructions.

If that requested information is not readily given to you then you may wish to employ a more co-operative Realtor.

#74 r on 10.30.13 at 12:29 am

All the arguments are true except prices are not falling for sfh in gta

#75 Son of Ponzi on 10.30.13 at 12:36 am

Time for some BRA burning.

#76 Andrew Woburn on 10.30.13 at 12:39 am

I agree with #18 Musty Basement Dweller that relisting properties is endemic on Vancouver Island at least around Nanaimo. However our very professional agent gave us full history in writing for any property we viewed including previous sale prices and re-listings. It is all there on the computer and if you are not getting it, get a new realtor.

Some properties had been on the market for two years and had been re-listed up to 4 times in that period. None of the multiple re-listings we viewed were really defective but they were all way over current market as evidenced by their assessed values. Nanaimo R/E took a big hit after 2008 so I guess many vendors could not grasp how much markets had dropped. For example the property we bought had briefly listed at $800K in 2008, sold for $625K in 2010, was offered at $585K in 2012 and we got it for $550K. I offer this to new buyers as a concrete example that even nice SFH in pristine waterview locations don’t always increase in price.

Yet all markets are local. Despite the drooping values in Victoria, here are the last few sales in my neighborhood.

MLS® Assessed Offered Sold Sold over Assessed

363326 $449,000 $569,900 $554,590 $105,590
364419 $465,000 $509,000 $496,000 $ 31,000
364376 $441,000 $499,900 $500,000 $ 59,000
363613 $453,000 $494,900 $487,500 $ 34,500
362823 $489,000 $569,500 $565,000 $ 76,000
362547 $469,000 $484,900 $475,000 $ 6,000

#77 Sideline Sitter on 10.30.13 at 12:40 am

Garth – be a little fair here – any agent worth 0.000001% commission will know that a place has been re-listed… it’s about the easiest data for them to pull.

I agree outlining that a property sold in 17 days for 99.5% of list *could* be considered deceptive, but it’s accurate in that it shows what the REAL value of a condo could/should be.

If people are unaware that a property has been relisted, then there’s a BIG problem out there… and SHAME on the agents!!!

#78 realtors fear the turth on 10.30.13 at 12:44 am

It’s obvious that realtors hate the truth and want to continue to lie . The Harper government is known for their lies and so it seems harper supports the RE industry and their manipulation and lies. Then again harper lent out $600 billion dollars in sub-prime / liar loans.

#79 meslippery on 10.30.13 at 12:52 am

Look at the price you can rent two (2) one bedrooms
for less than a three(3) bedroom.

#80 to_be_frank on 10.30.13 at 12:52 am

#5 TnT

1 Canadian and 1 foreign seller to 1 Canadian buyer would quickly tip the scales the other way, too.

#81 Teulon on 10.30.13 at 12:55 am

Silver @ #9
Property assessments (at least in Alberta) are based on “mass appraisal” which involves taking sales data from the land registry, not the real estate board. By doing so private sales as well as MLS transactions are included.
I would think other jurisdictions follow the same process if their assessments are supposed to approximate market value.

#82 Teulon on 10.30.13 at 1:06 am

Silver – I see that #21 Blue Steel already straightened you out!

#83 jj on 10.30.13 at 1:17 am

“Why not? Equity exposure is but one portion of a balanced, diversified portfolio. — Garth”

Garth makes a valid point, as I have said oft in past posts, higher highs and higher lows. DO NOT fight the trend, for the current trend is clearly up no doubt about it. DO NOT short this market for the reasons said.

In essence, this market can still go alot higher as long as those higher highs and higher lows occur.

#84 YVR2ZRH on 10.30.13 at 1:41 am

Garth,

As someone who has followed all the minute details of the listing stats over the past few years, I think that the issue with the statistics which you refer to in this blog post is way – way – more significant than the issue of listing double-counting on multiple boards.

The multiple listings issue is important to have uncovered and does skew the statistics. Most of the time, it does not move them a material amount.

However – - The reporting by boards of “Days on market” and “Sold price as a percentage of listing price” – is a completely useless and bogus number. It is so wrong that I have never considered it to even by a real number. I am surprised they quote it.

Now that the iron is hot – - I think you should try to get this one really uncovered because when confronting the boards with this one – they will have nothing to stand on.

I would say that in order for these stats to be real, there needs to be re-think as to how this is calculated.

1.) Days on market needs to count the number of days since the property has been listed. In order for the clock to reset – the property has to have been removed from the market for “X” days – - say 90 days.

2.) The sale price as a percentage of the asking price needs to also reflect the original asking price at the beginning of the first listing in a series of renewed listings.

This is something the boards really have to address. The abuse is rampant and completely distorts the market.

Let’s get this one addressed because you will see a complete change in market behaviour.

Thanks for getting this information out!!

#85 Bobby on 10.30.13 at 1:43 am

Who believes a realtor or the CREA anyways?

Went looking recently at condos here in Victoria. Saw one, a real dump but it had potential. Realtor’s response to every question was to make an offer then she will provide the information. Duh, I walked.

Oh yes, there was an offer supposedly coming in the next day, although the unit was on the market for over 4 months.

Still for sale. I’m not sure who is dumber, the realtors that are making it up as they stumble along, or the consumers that believe this drivel.

#86 Freedom First on 10.30.13 at 2:07 am

Wonderful! I love it Garth! Kick the $hit out of BNN with the truth yesterday while remaining “cool hand Luke” to BNN’s passive aggressive confrontation, and then today give your best ever uppercut to the RE industry and their accomplices with more of the truth. Bless you Garth! I know from your previous posts that your God is female, and I have this image of Her smiling from ear to ear. Bad $$$hit will continue to happen only when good men say nothing. You are a good man Garth. You are an inspiration to all good people. To the RE industry, not so much. Excellent, they asked for it.

#87 Freedom First on 10.30.13 at 2:11 am

#53

BS!

#88 Dave on 10.30.13 at 2:12 am

The ‘days on market’ reset is an excellent strategy for sellers to use. We did 2 resets on our triplex that we sold this summer. After each reset the volume of viewings shot-up for the next few days.

Rather then complaining about real estate agents using this strategy the focus of your article should be on reform with the real estate law in Canada.

#89 Son of Ponzi on 10.30.13 at 2:12 am

Insurance Bureau of Canada:
Major Earthquake in BC could cost up to 78 billion.
Richmond would be wiped off the map.

#90 Ralph Cramdown on 10.30.13 at 2:18 am

#43 Hollywood — “How does the United States or other countries report monthly numbers?”

http://www.businessinsider.com/existing-home-sales-2011-12

#91 Mac on 10.30.13 at 2:23 am

Now now, don’t side with Goldman. You gave up on a “sharp” correction months ago.

#92 IVoteIndependent on 10.30.13 at 3:06 am

#21 blue steel -Nonsense. Assessments based on sales? My house last sold 15 years ago when I bought it. Why then do my ASSessments keep going up? Based on sales of what? Houses that are nothing like mine, located 200 km away in the GTA, by ASSessment officers who never made it farther afield than the local Starbucks? Any of the so-called comparables got 4 industrial wind turbines springing up in the back yard?
Last ASSessment was so humourously high that I decided to return the joke by phoning MPAC to tell them that, though I was not originally intending to sell, I liked their offer so much that I decided to accept it. ASSessment by distant jokers who have never visited is a complete farce!

#93 Buy? Curious? on 10.30.13 at 3:18 am

Garth, why would Goldman Sachs be so open about something worth billions? Are they trying to move the market? Are they trying to start a panic, like when Bigrider notices they haven’t replaced the Meat Lover’s pizza at Pizza Hut in over 15 minutes? We gotta start looking into things that we can make money going down, and then on the way back up. And I’ve got just the plan. Classic!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoEflqTDd5c

#94 [email protected] on 10.30.13 at 4:40 am

More from this lady ps pls pls

#53 Irrevocable Date on 10.29.13 at 11:04 pm

Realtors WILL often request a new Listing # when a listing agreement is extended, because they want it to catch the eye of fellow realtors checking out ‘new’ listings. No argument there, it’s the oldest trick in the book. But anyone who thinks that their hapless local realtor is tampering with DOM stats is almost certainly giving him/her too much credit.

.

#95 Victoria Real Estate Update on 10.30.13 at 5:00 am

The bottom end of the Greater Victoria SFH market has declined 14.2% from the peak, which was reached in 2010.

. . . . .SFH Percentage Price Decline From Peak. . . . .
. (Esquimalt, Sidney, Colwood, Langford and Sooke) .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-5.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-5.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-6.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-6.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-7.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-7.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-8.0% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-8.5% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-9.0% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-9.5%. . . . . . . . . . .X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10.0%. . . . . . . .X. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-11.0%. . . . . . . . . . . .X. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-11.5%. . X. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-12.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-12.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-13.0%. . . . . . .X . . . . . . . . . . . . X. . . . . . . . .
-13.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X. X. . . . . . . . . . .
-14.0%. . . . .X. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X. X. X. . . .
-14.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
——————————————————————————-
. . . . . . . .S. O. N. D. J. F. M. A. M. J. J. A. S . . . .
. . . . . . . . .2012. . . /. . . . . . 2013. . . . . . . . . . .

This graph shows the SFH 3-month median price decline from peak.

Until next time – Cheers!

#96 Tiger on 10.30.13 at 5:26 am

46 # Franco your right your an idiot!!!

#97 Tripp on 10.30.13 at 5:28 am

#53 Irrevocable Date

Thank you for the laugh! Unfortunately you are right, and this does not apply to realtors only. I had a lawyer that fits your description perfectly.

#98 Tiger on 10.30.13 at 5:38 am

Whear all the firsts go!

Automation,Mac jobs will disappear automated tellers and robots! Say g b to your Mac jobs! My kids are lovin it. They are already programmed go to save on foods no tellers just self check out I’m look ahead its not going to end well

#99 Fed-up on 10.30.13 at 7:16 am

@#56 fewlish on 10.29.13 at 11:13 pm
Greetings from Australia!

http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/milliondollar-first-home-20131026-2w8ch.html
——————————————————————————————

Good to know that we are not the only complete morons on the face of the planet.

#100 Ask Your Realtor to Take Off Her B.R.A. on 10.30.13 at 7:46 am

In this market, don’t sign on to any form of exclusivity that benefits the realtor or the vendor. Period.

#101 Confused in Toronto on 10.30.13 at 7:47 am

Hamilton steel operations end permanently.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/us-steel-to-shut-down-hamilton-works-ceo-says/article15142440/

Isn’t it a bit odd that during times like these, they are buying ordinary suburban houses in Oakville and Burlington for $$$ after bidding wars.

Close down what was the largest and best paying employer in the Region and…
Maybe they can build 20, 30 story condo buildings on the old site and make a mint selling each for $300,000 a piece! Buyers should be at their door in droves!

JOBS??? WHO NEEDS EM!!!!!

#102 I AM the IDIOT who bought Qeen St Porn HOUSE on 10.30.13 at 7:57 am

YES ! I am that Idiot!

And you all are Ultra IDIOTS for not doing the same when You can !

I put HELOC as Down on that crappy house and Leveraged all the rest ON YOU MORONS !

Thanks GOD for CMHS who will unload all my owing to YOU GOATS through more taxes and more taxes and more taxes, while i will enjoy the house. ( i will not live in it i am not that idiot yet).
…and part will sold to BOND FOOLS…

For the record: I WOULD NEVER put my hard earned cash in to that wooden shack on that location.
But credit and Money created out of tin air and written on recycled paper – i will anytime…

There you go Garth GOATS stuck in prehistoric past, of saving money for old days and investing and living savers lives… I LOVE spending all your MONEY !

and you want to get it out of me? go ahead i will go bankrupt anytime and then YOU FOOLS resell that house and have porn party there!

GOD bless CMHS

#103 Confused in Toronto on 10.30.13 at 7:59 am

It is becoming more and more evident that the Bounty-full industrial province of Ontario is heading to ruin.
The present government has already indicated this in their actions by giving up on the energy needs this province would normally demand if it retained even a remote resemblance of the industrial economy it once had.
The growth we saw from 1950 – 1990 was based purely on fundamentals and the middle class held a lot of the wealth from jobs that resulted from making things and selling them to the world.
Bye-bye industrial sector now….
Means bye-bye financial sector later!!!

#104 jerry on 10.30.13 at 8:14 am

Well I guess we can pretty much see as to why CREA doesn’t want a service akin to Trulia.com operating in Canada.

#105 Vercingectorix on 10.30.13 at 8:28 am

Somebody just paid $1M for this piece of shit:
http://homesinmotion.ca/virtual_tour/2815.php

http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?&PropertyId=13764878&PidKey=230695031&Mode=7

And yes, it is a steal, they wanted $1.289K

#106 Sideline Sitter on 10.30.13 at 8:50 am

#63 – any links to back up the assertion? would love to read it, and show to my wife :)

#107 economictsunami on 10.30.13 at 8:51 am

As in other peak growth, declining economies, Canada has entered it’s “Gotcha” cycle. We will throw as many credit impaired consumers on the pyre of the Canadian economy as needed.

As was the case in the US, the Carp are trolling the bottom of the credit barrel looking for sucker hatch-lings.

It’s not so much the lack of reliable data but the fact that no one at the BOC/government nor RE industry wants to know the EXTENT of the “irrational exuberance.”

Our artificial boom/bust economy must provide our leaders with the necessary cover of allowing them to sheepishly state:

“We didn’t see this coming…”

Where’s the next property bubble building?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101143522#_gus

#108 rosie "moving forward" in the knowledge that, "this won't end well" on 10.30.13 at 8:51 am

#62 Angela

Some burger flipping. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_iTGXYFIkfkA/Rp3xSWBGNwI/AAAAAAAAEL4/Qk8wl8pwnD8/s1600/BOEING+FACTORY07.jpg

#109 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 10.30.13 at 8:55 am

@#102 I AM THE Idiot….

Well at least your name was correct…..OR

Smoking Man is off his meds again and having another “schizo” episode……..

#110 Penny Henny on 10.30.13 at 8:58 am

1. Kevin should work with a Realtor who will do a history on the property which will show when and what a home was previously listed at.
2. What does it matter what a property is listed at? Why all the big fuss? A property that sells for well over listing price was obviously under priced to generate strong demand and emotional bidding.
When a property has to have a serious price reduction it is because it was unrealistically priced to begin with, simple as that. This can be a factor of greed, stupidity, deception on behalf of the realtor trying to “get” a listing or a combination of all three.
For those who cannot grasp this simple concept, you have no business buying or selling without an experienced and trustworthy agent.
That’s just my two cents.

#111 Vercingectorix on 10.30.13 at 8:58 am

I guess this will count as ‘resale”

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=13439569&PidKey=640711597 and go under 0.8% error.

Anyway 840 Richmond St W (next to the above property) was just posted as sold. Twice. First time in May. Second time today.

Looks like this
http://goo.gl/maps/o8DLd

Asking price in May 475k. Sold for 615K
Asking price today 615K. Sold ofr 610K

Have no idea who bought that. I guess it is the developer who is building the above mentioned ‘resale’
Here is the page of the agent who is selling the units
http://pauljohnston.com/projects/edition-richmond-modern-lofts-in-trinity-bellwoods-toronto

Lots of shit on MLS today and these crooks continue to say that everything is OK

#112 Penny Henny on 10.30.13 at 9:13 am

#53 Irrevocable Date on 10.29.13 at 11:04 pm
—————————————————-
So funny because it’s true.

#113 Ret on 10.30.13 at 9:22 am

US Steel exits Hamilton. Who cares? How many still worked there, forty-seven?

The legacy pension situation could get interesting. Stelco had over 12,000 working there at one time.

#114 Thoughts on 10.30.13 at 9:27 am

Real estate developers are hitting new lows. Banks won’t give out money for new builds so either go bankrupt or beg, borrow and steal from family. Undercutting “investors” ie. brother in law with inflated invoices. Yes a real estate developer has to make a living when he knows his brother in law actually works for a living and can find his project. Get your father in law to take extra lines of credit out of you… Why risk your own personal assets. Crooks. $hit will hit the fan before we know it.

#115 Suckers of the day on 10.30.13 at 9:38 am

Condos:
C2730809
Asking $1.4M
Sold $1.06M
That is 76% of asking price
DOM >164

Also today they sold another v expensive condo: C2742855 for $1.498M (90% of asking) after 160 DOM

Expect the Condo Avg price this month to go through the roof.
The big fish is exiting the market. Run for the hills!

SFH
C2766369
Asking $1.289M
Sold $1.04M
DOM146 (reported 10)

#116 Daisy Mae on 10.30.13 at 9:46 am

#2 Randy: “It pays to lie…..”

*****************

Not for long. It always backfires.

#117 Rapier Wit on 10.30.13 at 9:59 am

Well, I was thinking of the actual report… not the CNBC news feed. You know, actual data and analysis?

#118 Musty Basement Dweller on 10.30.13 at 10:03 am

“This week that elfin deity we know as F had a session on the housing market with a slew of economists. One conclusion that leaked out: nobody actually knows what’s going on with real estate. Not the eggheads. Not the Fster. And certainly not the consumer. There’s simply no good, credible, dependable, non-biased data available, because all current stats must first be laundered by the industry itself.”
=================================
Now there’s an image, conjures up a cartoon.. all of this high priced help standing around scratching their heads about the state of real and accurate real estate information. Newsflash, it’s not new boys.!! Where have you been?? It makes one wonder what kind of hands us average taxpayer joes are really in..

#119 LS in Arbutus on 10.30.13 at 10:11 am

#36 detalumis on 10.29.13 at 9:59 pm

In my part of south Oakville there are two kinds of houses tear-down bungalows and mini-mansions. The bungalows are listed on MLS under one number and sell quickly, people want the lot to build their dream home. The already built dream homes are listed under 2 and sometimes 3 MLS numbers and takes many, many months to sell, there is a huge glut of these. When one sells I am sure it is recorded in the stats as if it was 2 or 3 sales.

————————–

It is similar on the west side of Vancouver. Knock downs priced $1.6 million and less still sell quickly. Almost everything from $2.0 to $2.5 million and above languishes… or at least takes quite a while to sell. I’ve been seeing this for a while. The inventory of homes less than $2.0 million is about 20% of the market on the west side, in the last couple of years, I’ve seen it as high as 24%. To me, it indicates this demand in this price range is high, the last bastion of “affordability.” And think about it, 80% of the SFH on Vancouver’s west side are priced $2 million and above! GAH!

#120 Joe Vancouver on 10.30.13 at 10:11 am

http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/ was once great place to see what is really going on in Lower Mainland ( not as active these days and that is too bad). The practice of re-listing is very common in Vancouver and other hoods around. I don’t mind having the re-listing done, but they still should show the original price since the seller has not changed. Without that it’s “smoke and mirrors” but we are used to that in BC.

#121 MLS on 10.30.13 at 10:15 am

Do you care to explain what are these:

C2608919 University & Dundas, Toronto 412990
C2695432 College & Yonge, Toronto 394900
C2771783 N & A, Toronto 40000
C2770462 King & Dufferin, Toronto 339500
C2744008 Bathurst & Lakeshore, Toronto 476900
C2672801 King & Spadina, Toronto 348800
C2768993 Sherbourne & Queens Quay East, Toronto 345500
C2766688 York & Queens Quay, Toronto 335000
C2740158 Lakeshore W & Bathurst, Toronto 335000
C2745937 Bathurst & Fort York, Toronto 315000
C2770350 Front & Spadina, Toronto 305000
C2761066 Bathurst & Fort York, Toronto 279900
C2768981 Sherbourne & Queens Quay East, Toronto 432500
C2741329 Front & John, Toronto 426500
C2741503 Bathurst & Lakeshore, Toronto 399900

there is about 120 of them in Toronto. These are just condos.
Search MLS for these numebers and tell us what they are

#70 Tedfiftyfour on 10.30.13 at 12:12 am
Gartho! Your are confused. There is no such thing as a private listing on MLS , none. I challenge you to publish one listing that is private, not MLS listed or represented by a brokerage that is published on the MLS. Perhaps your interpration of lower serviced listings such as mere listings are in your opinion private, however you are incorrect. If published on the MLS it is an MLS listing and as such is reported as an MLS Sale. This may not suit your personal agenda but it is what it is.

#122 SydCixel on 10.30.13 at 10:25 am

“This week that elfin deity we know as F had a session on the housing market with a slew of economists. One conclusion that leaked out: nobody actually knows what’s going on with real estate. Not the eggheads. Not the Fster. And certainly not the consumer. There’s simply no good, credible, dependable, non-biased data available, because all current stats must first be laundered by the industry itself.”

And who made the massive budget cuts at Stats Can that prevents the Fster from knowing the state of the market? Why is was that very same Fster. The economists, if they had any courage (doubtful), would have told Fster to reinstate the information gathering process.

#123 Susie Q on 10.30.13 at 10:30 am

The practice of relisting homes with a new MLS # (accompanied by lower asking) is very common in Regina as well. Over the 8 month period late last year/early this year that I tracked MLS data in the NW area of the city, this happened with 10% of the listings. On some properties, there were 3 ‘new’ MLS #s.

It made a huge impact on the days on market, though not so much on percent of list price (about 1% difference) as prices continue to be pretty stable here and sellers aren’t moving much on them.

The greatest fools are the ones who can’t be bothered to do a bit of research to educate themselves. There seem to be plenty of them here!

#124 MLS on 10.30.13 at 10:55 am

The idiot RE agent who sold 6 Graham Crescent in Markham reported 4450000 for sale price and asking price something like 339000.

No wonder why prices keep going up.

#125 Ronaldo on 10.30.13 at 11:11 am

#29 X

”Seeing as most Canadians have most of their wealth in RE, do you think that the gov’t will ever regulate it?”

Was it regulated in the U.S. prior to the GFC? Is it now? If not, why would Canada do so?

#126 CalgaryRocks on 10.30.13 at 11:36 am

#102 I AM the IDIOT who bought Qeen St Porn HOUSE on 10.30.13 at 7:57 am
YES ! I am that Idiot!

And you all are Ultra IDIOTS for not doing the same when You can !

I put HELOC as Down on that crappy house and Leveraged all the rest ON YOU MORONS !

Thanks GOD for CMHS who will unload all my owing to YOU GOATS through more taxes and more taxes and more taxes, while i will enjoy the house. ( i will not live in it i am not that idiot yet).
…and part will sold to BOND FOOLS…

LOL. He’s got a point.

#127 Ronaldo on 10.30.13 at 11:39 am

#40 Never bet against Goldman -”If Goldman sacks says Canada housing market is going to crash you know it’s going to crash and crash hard.”

Didn’t they say the same thing about gold before it was slammed down?

#128 Steven on 10.30.13 at 11:42 am

RE:#20 Victor V

I don’t think there can be any doubt about real estate being a mental and financial disease. If we are going to have a serious reality check for real estate, financial markets and politics I think you will see the price of that row house drop alot more than it has. Possibly to sub 100k levels.
When bubbles burst there is usually not much left.

#129 Ronaldo on 10.30.13 at 11:50 am

#44 Smoking Man – so true. So much dumb money out there that it would be immoral not to take it from them. And it gets dumber every day. No wonder the realtors are having a hay day. A dumbed down population totally obsessed with their electronic gadgets totally unaware of what is going on around them. No wonder the .85% are where they are today. They have zero competition.

#130 Irrevocable Date on 10.30.13 at 11:51 am

@ #87

“BS”

Really bro? If you tasked your local real estate pro with the sale of your $1,000,000 Gananoque dollhouse (using MLS #100102001013120 strictly as a for instance), wouldn’t you expect him to at least map it in the province in which it sits, or do you think it would fetch a higher price in Reindeer Lake?

If you mentioned to your agent that Realtor.ca displayed your pleasure palace in Reindeer Lake, Manitoba and that you thought it should maybe be mapped in Ontario where the actual bricks and mortar are, do you fantasize that your agent would even know what you’re talking about, let alone how to remedy it? Or would he come up with something truly original like “oh, the girl in our office must have made a mistake”?

Listen, there are some realtors who deserve to be called professionals, but let’s not get our hopes up for the industry as a whole.

#131 Smoking Man on 10.30.13 at 11:54 am

#109 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 10.30.13 at 8:55 am@#102 I AM THE Idiot….Well at least your name was correct…..ORSmoking Man is off his meds again and having another “schizo” episode……..
…………

Was that you in my elevator today? I walk in the doors close, man of man whoever was in there few seconds ago dropped a teary eyed nuke. Dose the elevator not stop on 2 and a few people get in, looking at me like I have leprosy.

I just grinned and took credit.

FARTZ I only post as Smoking Man, my only meads are observing life … With a bit of wine sometimes

#132 Vercingectorix on 10.30.13 at 11:59 am

Comparing adjusted and unadjusted numbers

http://www.movesmartly.com/2013/10/can-we-trust-real-estate-statistics-published-by-the-real-estate-industry.html

#133 Just wondering on 10.30.13 at 12:07 pm

So if you’re looking to purchase and working with an agent – would that agent not have full access to the MLS data and be able to tell you how many times the property had been relisted and at what price points? Seems to me this would be a pretty basic thing that a buyers agent should be able to tell you.

#134 Spiltbongwater on 10.30.13 at 12:19 pm

Why does this matter?

First, buyers are prevented from knowing the number of days a property’s been sitting around. This is worthy information if you’re searching for motivated sellers, or like the look of a place but don’t know about the toxic, killer mold that was recently covered with swimming pool paint in the furnace room. Listings with long DOMs always have a story behind him – priced too high, or flaws that repelled other potential buyers. But when every listing is New! it’s a blatant attempt to withhold relevant information. -Garth

But Garth, Buyers are not prevented from knowing about the stale listings because they have a buyers Realtor representing them? The buyers Realtor can easily see the listing history of a property, and will tell the buyer s/he is representing all the relevent information about the property before an offer is made?

Yeah right, we both know the buyers Realtor won’t give out any information for the buyer to make an informed decision unless the buyer specifically asks for a property listing history to be done. You say the buyers agent works for the buyer, I say LOL.

#135 James Bond in Gold Finger on 10.30.13 at 12:55 pm

No matter how much fudging of numbers and lack of data when the time comes market forces will do their thing, the question is always when, and how much a delay may occur to due irrational exuberance.

#136 Old Man on 10.30.13 at 12:59 pm

Breaking News: there are polls hitting the streets asking citizens who is the greater fool, so took a peek at the results. Mr. Turner came in with a modest 1%, and Caesar hit the jackpot with 99%, and then the Reform trolls stepped in stealing the end results with a shocking display of Con Democracy, and was shocked by this all.

#137 Mr. Frugal on 10.30.13 at 1:05 pm

Aside from a few enlighted souls, almost everyone believes that real estate can only go up in value. So, it does – at least for now. In spite of a great deal of skepticism, the US Markets have gone up substantially. So, what do you think will happen to the US Markets once everyone embraces the fact that the markets are recovering.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101152983

#138 TnT on 10.30.13 at 1:15 pm

Ross Kay S.O.S

http://www.rosskay.com/sos.html

#139 Old Man on 10.30.13 at 1:19 pm

#5 TnT – you might consider changing your handle when talking about an ethnic group in Canada, as it has a copyright on it within the grocery business in this country as know the family. I assume you are making an association indirectly which find personally not amusing in the least as they are a chain; not cool at all.

#140 happity on 10.30.13 at 2:04 pm

Referencing Goldman sachs, wow, don’t they do gods work?

#141 Ralph Cramdown on 10.30.13 at 2:22 pm

#135 Mr. Frugal — “So, what do you think will happen to the US Markets once everyone embraces the fact that the markets are recovering.”

I confess to a perverse desire to be a fly on the wall at investment committee meetings of foundations, endowments and charities which have embraced Yale’s Swensen’s call to diversify into alternate asset classes and strategies, especially those which did so late (i.e. after 2008).

It’s easy to grin at your low-volatility 7% returns when markets are going sideways, but harder when the equity bulls are running and your hedge funds and timber funds are underperforming, and you can’t help but think how much more the endowment would be worth if you’d just stuck to stocks and bonds in the first place. I imagine there will be heated debates as to whether to stay the course.

#142 Nemesis on 10.30.13 at 2:24 pm

Speaking of “RecycledVirgins”… your Quote ‘O TheDay & ThursdayZen, SaltyDogs:

“Her songs were chosen by the security team because they thought the pirates would hate them most. These guys can’t stand western culture or music, making Britney’s hits perfect. As soon as the pirates get a blast of Britney, they move on as quickly as they can.” – Rachel Owens, British Merchant Naval Officer

[AlArabiya] – Britney Spears ‘Toxic’ to Somali pirates: British Navy uses pop as scare tactic

…”According to British newspaper Metro, Britney’s hits, including Oops! I Did It Again and Baby One More Time, are being employed by British naval officers in attempt to drive off Somali pirates operating along the cost of east Africa.”…

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/variety/2013/10/30/Is-Britney-Toxic-to-Somali-pirates-British-Navy-uses-pop-as-scare-tactic.html

#143 elchavo on 10.30.13 at 2:42 pm

Home revolution to solve BC’s high real estate issue…

http://globalnews.ca/news/932674/vancouver-company-hopes-to-kickstart-micro-home-revolution-with-25000-units/

“You would be feeling very good about establishing a trend-setting mode of sustainability,” says Kent.

Spot on. I mean, who wouldn’t want to be a trend-setter in trendy Mold City. Also:

“Your consumerism would drop… ”
“You would become very efficient and that’s going to be a forced savings in your bank account… ”
“You are going to become a fantastic recycler…”
“You are going to come up with new methods of recycling, because you can’t fit garbage in your unit.”

Fantastic. Problem solved. Can’t wait to buy one of those with a cheap mortgage, since BoC is not touching rates anytime soon. Then sell it for a profit cause RE always goes up. In a couple of years they’ll go from 25K to 50K then to 75K. At that point a new trendy innovative idea will come up to once and for all make real estate affordable. Maybe condos the size of coffins for $5,000, or a condo-tent hybrid for $10,000

How can you solve a problem when you don’t even understand what’s causing it? Gimme’ a break…

What next, living in shipping containers? oh wait….

#144 Devore on 10.30.13 at 2:48 pm

#13 Paul

I know it goes against the grain of the blog dogs but if a seller or buyer requested the history of any home listed or not from a realtor they would get the information .

It goes against nothing. If there is any grain you learned from “the blog dogs” it is buyer beware.

Most buyers know not a single thing about real estate, how it is bought and sold, and how the market operates. It is something of a truism here to say that most people spend more time considering their next iPad or jeans or TV purchase, than they do their house. It is a black box to them. Some money goes in, and a mortgage and a house come out. This is ripe fruit for unscrupulous and hungry realtors who just care about their next commission check.

#145 TnT on 10.30.13 at 2:53 pm

#137 Old Man

#5 TnT – you might consider changing your handle when talking about an ethnic group in Canada, as it has a copyright on it within the grocery business in this country as know the family. I assume you are making an association indirectly which find personally not amusing in the least as they are a chain; not cool at all.

**************

TnT = Trinitrotoluene and I have been using the name for over 2 years posting here. Note it is with a lower case n as over a year ago there was another poster using TNT.

Garth takes racist posts seriously and I never considered talking about ethnicity as being racist.

I believe your name is far more offensive to say to someone in public than mine, can you please change your name? I am offended.

#146 father on 10.30.13 at 3:11 pm

beemo say’s B.C.s housing market is out of the woods over at the globe SURE YA RITE

#147 Serge on 10.30.13 at 3:11 pm

Sold with 1010 % Listing price. What a profit !
http://www.torontomls.net/PublicWeb/CL_CF.asp?link_no=51127194.206100&t=l&fm=F

6 Graham Cres Sold: $4,445,000
Markham, Ontario L3P4M1 York Raymerville List: $439,900
Orig Price: $439,900 Taxes: $3,105.90/2013 1010 % List
SPIS: N Raymerville 357-35-V DOM: 8 Contract: 10/19/2013 Sold: 10/27/2013

#148 Devore on 10.30.13 at 3:12 pm

#53 Irrevocable Date

But anyone who thinks that their hapless local realtor is tampering with DOM stats is almost certainly giving him/her too much credit.

As lucky happenstance would have it, the system is setup such that the realtor doing what is in their best interests accomplishes the same result.

I overheard a pair of very lovely realtors one day, one was showing the ropes to the other one, both in their early 20s at most. She said to relist frequently, to keep the listing fresh.

This is extremely common and widespread practice. Official individual and aggregate DOM and sell-vs-list statistics are basically made up fantasy numbers. Totally meaningless. Some realtors will even relist when a sale is being negotiated just so they can show 0-day 100% asking price listings on their sites. This is obviously much more rare and requires the cooperation of the cooperating agent (oh yeah, that’s hard to get).

#149 calgaryPhantom on 10.30.13 at 3:13 pm

QE infinite and markets going down. WTH?

#150 bigtown on 10.30.13 at 3:18 pm

I watched another YOUR HOUSE; MY MONEY on W channel today showing a young couple in their early thirties looking at downtown Toronto houses listing at close to $600k with tons of fixes and renos estimating approx $100k at min. If you look at many American cities similar to Toronto in income levels the same house would not list over $100,000 in most cases. Not able to access reliable sales data in a home search would be like me going to buy shares of Blackberry at a five year old price of $80 instead of what the stock is selling for today at $8.23 a share. We do not have reliable information in real estate in Canada and unless you get your broker to go back over a year and maybe two or three and you dig deep you will be in the dark. Of course when all the neighbors in an area have to SELL get out of the way the real PRICE will come out but until the cartels come CLEAN it is buyer beware.

#151 jess on 10.30.13 at 3:29 pm

phantom listings how about ‘phantom firms’.

Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Stash the Cash – a new way to hide your money
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wOh2qEV94I&feature=player_embedded

#152 Devore on 10.30.13 at 3:42 pm

When people doing what “comes naturally” produces undesirable outcomes, it is usually a question of incentives. Clearly, I hope, most realtors are not interested in consciously manipulating stats, although sometimes they will to pad their personal numbers, so what is driving the behaviour?

Well, there is a lot of emphasis on “new listings” and “updated listings”. Those get all the attention. A relisted property will get a spike in interest. Why is this? Why would buyers overlook a property listed for 60 days that they haven’t seen before, but go gaga over the exact same thing listed this morning?

This is built into the entire system. From the way MLS sorts and presents search results by default, to the “hot sheets” buyers and realtors alike subscribe to. A 60 day listing might as well not exist to the majority of the market.

Realtors relist properties for 2 reasons. To generate fresh interest, and to hide a large price change from the casual observer (ie, anyone who is not a clued in realtor).

The solution to the first one is not make the realtors feel bad about doing what benefits them (although they should feel bad, and they should be aware of the impact this practice has to industry statistics and image), but to make the age of the listing a far smaller factor in the property marketing and search process. The solution to the second one is to make relisting an irrelevant practice on the publicly accessible MLS interfaces. zillow.com has already paved the way there.

#153 45north on 10.30.13 at 3:57 pm

Mike: thanks for your link. It’s pretty much what Garth has been saying “housing prices will go down”. We just don’t know when.

Chip N. Scraper: The best way is to bring in some chips off your pool surface. We will then put them into xylene

didn’t know that

mrs Hubris: If it’s routine practice to manipulate the data how exactly will we know there’s a downturn?

we’ll know when our friends and family don’t sell their houses and they’ll know when their neighbours undercut them

Insider: Department of Finance has models that show a market correction of 35% in 8 months based on oversupply in the Toronto condo market and foreigners pulling out.

that got my attention

The Dude: Yeah I can personally confirm this one. Originally listed my DT Toronto, 610sqft condo for 429000 in early sept. last year. No action… Re-listed at 424000 then 419000 then 409000. Sold for 398000 late feb this year at under 60 DOM.

that doesn’t sound so bad – drop $30,000 off $429,000

2¢CDN: In the normal business world … the one with the money (buyer) is king …. and the one with the huge asset for sale (seller) is not far behind.
and its the banks and CMHC that disrupts this order

Ralph Cramdown: from your link
December 2011: The National Association of Realtors has revised existing home sales 14% lower for the past four years.

this revision basically confirmed that the American housing market had suffered a huge loss – 4 years after it happened. As Garth has said it is in the interest of the real estate associations to hide any losses.

IVoteIndependent: Why then does my assessment keep going up? Based on sales of what? Houses that are nothing like mine, located 200 km away in the GTA

200 km away? I don’t believe it.

#154 Yo on 10.30.13 at 4:02 pm

This thing about mainland chinese buyers is a little overblown. I lived in North York and Markham now, and mainland China buyers do not buy anywhere but areas in North York and Markham/Richmond Hill. They do not buy in cabbage town, they do not buy in parkdale, annex or even Rosedale. And yet dumps near ossington/queen st go for $700K plus. The whole market is up because of cheap money. That mainland chinese buyer buying that place in Markham is also using cheap money, he/she just borrowed it from a bank in China. The world is flushed with cheap leverage. So it doesn’t matter if your are this race or that, everyone is buying and will pay later for it. In fact, in areas that mainland Chinese buy, the market is already correcting. I just rented a $900K house in unionville for only $1950. It usually rents for $2500 or so. After property taxes..etc, they will lucky to walk away with 1% return… The landlord (mainland chinese) was so desperate, he even asked if I was interested in buying as well. Right now, the only segement that is still running hot is being pushed by local yuppies trying to grab that semi under $1M in a cool area, not mainland chinese.

#155 Penny Henny on 10.30.13 at 4:09 pm

US economy improves … tapering starts … interest rates rise … US economy subsides … tapering stops …

I’m starting to think low interest rates are here for a long time. Definitely bullish for Canadian RE. Yes, it is insane.
—————————————————
not my words but my sentiment EXACTLY.
so much easier to copy and paste

#156 broadway skytrain on 10.30.13 at 4:30 pm

#137 Old Man on 10.30.13 at 1:19 pm

————————————-
WTF?

time to change you handle to Batshit Crazy Old Man.

some others complements of google….
T&T Seeds Ltd
t and t express
t and t auto
t and t enterprises
t and t motorsports
tnt
t and t trucking
t and t clothing
t and t mirror

But “YOU know the family” so he of course is talking about them – you loony old codger :)

#157 Canadian Watchdog on 10.30.13 at 5:12 pm

#145 Serge

Sold with 1010 % Listing price. What a profit!

I see a few of those every month. That error just added $4 million dollars of phantom dollar volume to TREB's average price.

#158 Rabbitt One on 10.30.13 at 5:18 pm

> 152 Yo

I am renting $1.45M detached in Van, and was also offered from houseowner who is from mainland china.
She offered $1.5M, she paid $1.4M for it a few year ago.
(obviously hate to sell at loss)

Renting for $3,200 / month. Owning this house will cost me something like $1,000 to $1,500 just for taxes and insurance and small repair funds.
So, the price got to be around $1M to justify.
Also, we are talking about deflating assets, even less.

#159 Rabbitt One on 10.30.13 at 5:26 pm

By the way, $1MM cash will give me $4K to $5K investment income, if cut in half, $500K investment is $2K to $2.5K, mortgage on $500K is around $1,500 / month.

It is taxable income, but I also have to give up this opportunities if I were to buy this house.

Lots of money stuck in the R/E indeed, even if I could afford to buy, cannot accept to proceed based on the numbers.

#160 Bottoms_Up on 10.30.13 at 5:33 pm

agree that the practise of hiding days on market is very deceiving, benefits sellers and penalizes buyers. I followed a house for greater than a year (very stale listing); then had a friend tell me they saw the same house “sell really fast” as it was reposted and actually sold (perhaps to a duped buyer?) and it was friend’s first time seeing the listing.

#161 TheCatFoodLady on 10.30.13 at 5:47 pm

As consumers, we’re subjected to data manipulation constantly. I do 95% of the household shopping & examples abound. Grocery stores are classic. Grab your weekly flyer. Tucked in among the genuine sales items, same photo size, same font size & style are other items NOT on sale. You can tell those because they don’t include how much you’re saving. Another typical tactic – if bread is going up next week to a new regular price of $2.05/loaf from $1.89 – the ad will say something like: $1.88 – save $.17!

Clothing stores, hardware – any type of consumer goods run the same sales tactics. Either we’re gullible & buy them or not. And even when you’re paying attention, you can be fooled once in a while.

So why would we expect home sales to NOT engage in deceptive or quasi-deceptive sales practices?

This is where a point Garth often brings up comes into play – try to keep the emotion out of home buying. And take your time. Houses are still being built & always will be – you’re going after a non-renewable resource & there’s no one perfect house. I can grab a glossy housing brochure every month & find at least 3-4 I’d look at, if I was in the market & if the price was reasonable. And in many cases, ‘perfection’ is simple cosmetics.

If we ever see housing data, how it’s counted & presented, regulated, realtors will find lots of new ways to fool house hungry people. Subtle & not so subtle staging can easily erase the idea of going in with no emotions.

I don’t think I’d ever be in a big hurry to sink so much actual & potential net worth into one asset class & a big red flag for me is always any kind of sales person telling me “You only have one chance at this opportunity!”

Utter tripe.

#162 JRH on 10.30.13 at 6:24 pm

Good work Garth !!

#163 Buy High on 10.30.13 at 6:31 pm

There’s a growing chorus by some top Hedge & Bond fund managers, analysts and economists that all asset prices are bubbly. Stocks, real estate (high end in the US), bonds, commodities…

What’s your take Garth?

#164 TakingResponsibility on 10.30.13 at 6:35 pm

#102 I AM the IDIOT who bought Qeen St Porn HOUSE on 10.30.13 at 7:57 am

Well put! haha! We, the Public, (CMHC funders) are being screwed. Remove CMHC (and the Conservatives past policy of 0 / 40) and the housing market would be totally different.

Yeah, yeah, it is we the taxpayers who are IDIOTS. Got it. We the Public are insuring/funding a lot of Speculation.

Really, it is CMHC that needs to Open the Books, so to speak, and address the Public on the issues of insuring foreign speculation/ownership. As in, does CMHC (we the public) insure others who are not citizens?? And, to what ratio and what risk? Shouldn’t WE the taxpayers know?

Doesn’t take more than a quick perusal to know that – Yes – It does seem as though CMHC is marketing their “product” to all newcomers – citizens or not. Incredibly, permanent resident status is okay AS WELL AS NON PERMANENT RESIDENT STATUS.

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/hoficlincl/moloin/hopr/upload/CMHC-Newcomer.pdf

Of interest is the marketing narrative on our state website. I am going to check to see whether that same ‘textual tone’ is obvious on Canada’s public health website…

Of course, this same “CMHC product” for ALL newcomers (permanent residents, non-permanent residents) is blatantly and heavily marketed by Mortgage Firms, Brokers and Realtors towards those same. Example:
http://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/new-to-canada.html

“CMHC and Genworth insured financing is available to borrowers with permanent and non-permanent residence status, helping newcomers to realize their dream of homeownership in Canada. *LTV up to 95%”

Those non-Canadians are probably thinking, saying, and laughing along the exact same lines as you, I AM the IDIOT who bought Qeen St Porn HOUSE. As in, ‘those Canadian taxpayers are pre’ stupid’.

…And, hiding behind those of us who are anti-racist and can’t quite grasp how to articulate the abuse of public monies without utilizing terms that raise anti-racist ire.

#165 Vercingectorix on 10.30.13 at 6:46 pm

Why don’t you stick with the grocery list …
Your flyers were never used by economist and investors to make decisions

#159 TheCatFoodLady on 10.30.13 at 5:47 pm
As consumers, we’re subjected to data manipulation constantly. I do 95% of the household shopping & examples abound. Grocery stores are classic. Grab your weekly flyer. Tucked in among the genuine sales items, same photo size, same font size & style are other items NOT on sale. You can tell those because they don’t include how much you’re saving. Another typical tactic – if bread is going up next week to a new regular price of $2.05/loaf from $1.89 – the ad will say something like: $1.88 – save $.17!

#166 Steven on 10.30.13 at 7:02 pm

Recycling virgins is not possible. Once you do it for the first time you are not a virgin any more.

I sure hope that was metaphorical. — Garth

#167 [email protected] on 10.30.13 at 7:04 pm

Garth, any info on the green Ontario bonds ? What will the interest rate be? Taxable or Non? And where is the best place to buy them?

#168 gladiator on 10.30.13 at 7:10 pm

@161 TakingResponsibility:

Of course nonresidents’ mortgage loans will be covered by CMHC, because this insurance has to prevent CANADIAN banks from losses on these loans.

The really funny moment in Idiot’s post is that he/she writes CMHC as CHMS, which means that if it really IS the buyer of the porn house, then this buyer didn’t pay much attention to what documents he/she signed, and it is just a matter of time until he/she gets what he/she deserves.

#169 TheCatFoodLady on 10.30.13 at 7:18 pm

I love the smell of condescension inn the evening. I mean really, if you’re going to metaphorically pat my head & smiling benevolently, tell me to leave the Big Money to the grownups, you could at least have the decency to toss me some candy.

Not being an economist, I don’t know everything they use when formulating opinions or policy. As an investor – damned straight I use flyers… reasonable starting point for a novice investor. Start with what you know & I know consumer cyclicals. Flyers combined with quarterly & annual statements, moving averages, prospectuses, etc…

But in any case my comment was not directed at the overall view of economists or RE investors as much as it was buyers. And clearly many of today’s buyers don’t have a grip on either investing or economics.

#170 Canadian Watchdog on 10.30.13 at 7:38 pm

#161 TakingResponsibility

What strikes me about CMHC is now they have to translate information into multiple languages for newcomers to understand. And if that's the case , then how the heck are newcomers reading and understanding mortgage and insurance documents?

Tell me you didn’t just say immigrants are too dumb to comprehend mortgages. — Garth

#171 wallflower on 10.30.13 at 7:48 pm

I think Yo makes a strong case about mainland versus cheap money.
But, Yo, here is my observation about an overlooked contributor to high or increasing real estate values:

Next door neighbourhood, Shanghai guy, buys house and visits about 4 weeks in any given year (not sure why, maybe it’s his vacation). Brings three kids when he first comes who are high school age. Shanghai guy, his wife and his three children all enroll in OHIP. Eldest goes into university at local rates, then the other two follow.
Nobody is paying income taxes because nobody works here.
Shanghai guy pays about $3,500 per year in property taxes.
So for about a five year period, these are Shanghai guy’s expenses:
Townhouse utility costs 4 (years) X $3,600 for a total of $14,400.
Property taxes 4 (years) X $3,500 for a total of $14,000.
University tuition of 3 (students) X 4 (years) X $6000 for a total of $72,000.
OHIP costs are $0 with a total benefit value of potentially enormous sums. (Yes, yes, it’s fraud to use OHIP services if not in the country 153+ days or something like but they do it and so do many people I have met whose birth countries are Hong Kong, China, and Portugal and our system does not track this nor seem to care to track it – easy to do if the system were to link with the passport/entry system.)
Now I just happen to know that the increase in the townhouse value since day of purchase is far greater than all the foregoing costs. So next year, when last student is done, Shanghai guy sells his townhouse to the next Shanghai guy.
Rinse and repeat.
So his net covers not only all his expenses but his flights of annual return and probably a whole lot more.
It would be interesting to learn, how many Ontario families are really just this? A temporary use (abuse?) of the system. And, do these users/abusers contribute to the elevated cost of real estate? These folks would not care much about real estate values, per se, when the REAL value is all the other stuff they get out of being “residents.”
At any rate, even if the real estate value of their temporary abode were to NOT increase, these “visitors” are still getting crazy value for money (international fees for post-sec students are about four times that of local residents). And, in neighbour’s case, no, the children/students do not become contributing members of society. The two older ones now live in different countries and the third has no friends or roots here. I have only once seen any visits/friends to the house – I live and work at home so am always around. I don’t see him staying in Canada with no family here. Yes, he is now on his own and when he comes home weekends or breaks from school it is just him in the townhouse, no visitors, nothing, just a whole lot of gaming. (I read something about this as a Canadian phenomenon somewhere recently; maybe in a Macleans’ magazine? Older children and very young adults being left in Canada in a house bought by their parents.)

You should move to Vancouver. You’d fit right in. — Garth

#172 Obvious Truth on 10.30.13 at 7:50 pm

#102

I was hoping houses were being bought this way. Means I’ll get that place for 10 grand a few years from now.

If it looks like Detroit and smells like Detroit…..

#173 TurnerNation on 10.30.13 at 7:55 pm

#35 Randman on

You will learn there is no ‘us vs them’ but a global system. Countries are mere memes.
A division of labour so to speak.
Every single communication, including voice print analysis, facial recognition has been in in force for year. Ginormous data centres we cannot imagine
record all.
In a recent business magazine I read that some public TV ad screens detect your face/age/gender and target ads to it. This is the trickle down effect.
Satellites record all. Yet they play with us…OBama capturing OSama…playing like there was a hunt on.

Bread and circuses. False hope. Europe was liberated…then plunged into decades of brutal communism and repression. Giant open air camps encircled by the Berlin Wall. The walls simple got bigger.
AN NO ONE LIFTED A FINGER to save them. The walls are electronic now.

Do you think someone will save you? Ha.
No more mention of Haiti, Syria, Libya, in our newz now. Mission accomplished.

#174 Canadian Watchdog on 10.30.13 at 7:59 pm

Tell me you didn’t just say immigrants are too dumb to comprehend mortgages. — Garth

Leonila Molina-Tan and Vicente Tan vs MCAP Service Corporation

This is an application for summary judgment against a couple from the Philippines who speak limited English and were taken in by a mortgage scam.Full story

I’ll take that as a yes. Shame on you. — Garth

#175 Devore on 10.30.13 at 8:16 pm

#167 Canadian Watchdog

What strikes me about CMHC is now they have to translate information into multiple languages for newcomers to understand.

They don’t HAVE to do anything, beyond French and English, and neither does anyone else. The site is aimed at new comers, who are not required to speak an official language. What strikes me is that providing your services in as many languages as possible is just good business.

#176 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 10.30.13 at 8:17 pm

So, according to Alison Griffith’s blog post on Get Smarter About Money, a publication of the Investor Education Fund (funded by the Ontario Securities Commission) real estate is a safe investment (read her first paragraph).

I wish there was some way to comment on that blog. I would tell Alison that real estate is not a safe investment, that I personally suffered a devastating financial setback when the last bubble burst in the 1990s, and that investors in League group of companies in B.C. and Foundation Capital Corporation in Alberta would likely disagree too.

#177 TakingResponsibility on 10.30.13 at 8:23 pm

#167 Canadian Watchdog on 10.30.13 at 7:38 pm
#161 TakingResponsibility
“What strikes me about CMHC is now they have to translate information into multiple languages for newcomers to understand. And if that’s the case , then how the heck are newcomers reading and understanding mortgage and insurance documents?”

***Very interesting indeed. A quick perusal of other Canadian Crown Corporations reveal that NO OTHER website has multiple languages ‘for newcomers to understand’ – will have to spend time to see whether any Canadian Departments and Agencies (such as CRA?) feel the need to have that “service.”

In response to #165 gladiator on 10.30.13 at 7:10 pm
@161 TakingResponsibility:
“Of course nonresidents’ mortgage loans will be covered by CMHC, because this insurance has to prevent CANADIAN banks from losses on these loans.”

***Maybe you could enlighten me as to what a “Canadian” bank is – and to follow, why we, the Canadian taxpayers, should ‘protect’ banks operating in Canada. I really do ask without rancor.

#178 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 10.30.13 at 8:26 pm

@#129 Smoking Man

My apologies for the “meds” comment.
And, yes. That was me in the elevator just before you….

#179 Paul on 10.30.13 at 9:03 pm

171 Canadian Watchdog on 10.30.13 at 7:59 pm
Tell me you didn’t just say immigrants are too dumb to comprehend mortgages. — Garth

Leonila Molina-Tan and Vicente Tan vs MCAP Service Corporation

This is an application for summary judgment against a couple from the Philippines who speak limited English and were taken in by a mortgage scam.… Full story

I’ll take that as a yes. Shame on you. — Garth
.*******************************************
Garth
80% or more of the people who have mortgages don’t understand them. When you talk about pre payments, discharge fees, interest differential cost, early renewal, ect ect it’s deer in the head lights.

And it has nothing to do with their language. — Garth

#180 Tiger on 10.30.13 at 9:21 pm

No blog tonight, think hot realtor got to Garth ! Oh we’ll at least I got to learn a lot from him!

#181 45north on 10.30.13 at 9:37 pm

Canadian Watchdog: What strikes me about CMHC is now they have to translate information into multiple languages for newcomers to understand.

the cost of providing a site in English and French is enormous

Here’s the Spanish site 2 levels down:
http://www.cmhc.ca/newcomers/spanish/maintain.html

7 links are English, 1 is French, like they sort of give up on providing the site in Spanish. The site they have is dumbed down so that it’s possible to provide everything is English and French.

Here’s a list of materials that CMHC has on “hot water heating”. Notice the material is in the original language and not translated. Notice that you can borrow the material but it’s not up on the web site. It is simply impractical to translate!

http://chic.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/uhtbin/cgisirsi.exe/?ps=Fye4u7yjfa/CHIC/6060007/88

government sites are dumbed down to comply with the
common-like-and-feel Political correctness has a cost.

#182 Canadian Watchdog on 10.30.13 at 9:38 pm

#172 Devore

What strikes me is that providing your services in as many languages as possible is just good business.

Good business indeed. Below is CanEquity's top five highest loan-to-average income cities along with each city's migration stock as a percentage of population.

City | %Pop. | Loan/Income Ratio

NORTH YORK, 48%, 4.7
BURNABY, 59.5%, 4.4
SCARBOROUGH, 69.5%, 4.2
ETOBICOKE, 41.8%, 4.2
VANCOUVER, 62.2%, 4.2

Any correlation there?

Ottawa’s 2014 immigration plan focuses on economic class

Canada is set to launch its “Express of Interest System” (EOI) to let employers cherry-pick skilled immigrants from a pool of pre-screened [wealthy] candidates.

In tabling his annual report to the Parliament Monday, Immigration Minister Chris Alexander also announced that Ottawa will admit between 240,000 and 265,000 permanent residents to Canada in 2014, the same level as this year.

While Canadians will continue to get the first crack at available jobs [LOL], getting the right people in the right places is key to addressing regional labour needs and fuelling Canada’s long-term prosperity,” Alexander said in Ottawa.

The EOI system is to start on Jan. 1, 2015.

The GG Commander-in-Chief and United Nations (your dictators) have already decided what's next for Canada, unchallanged. I'm a realist. And when I see profligate government policies change, my views change. If the government gets their way, the RE bears (including me) will all be wrong on home prices.

#183 Brent on 10.31.13 at 10:59 am

In Florida they fixed this problem by reporting the total days on market rather than the days on market since the last time it was re-listed. I’m sure a similar system could be worked out here in Canada fairly easily. What are your thoughts?

#184 MWerk on 10.31.13 at 5:39 pm

Garth,
What is the reason listings of US properties, such as ones on Zillow, have all kinds of information about the property, such as days on the market, and in Canada there’s almost nothing?
Thanks,

#185 paul pedersen on 11.01.13 at 10:34 am

A list price is just a wishful thinking asking price. The only price that counts is the selling price irrespective of the days on the market.

#186 Chad on 11.01.13 at 11:20 am

Days on market isn’t a good indication of anything, you have to look at all the data. If a home/condo is overpriced it can be on the market a year. If you are really concerned ask your agent and they can provide that information for you. Its not secret or private, they should be working for you to evaluate the market so you can get a fair price on the home whether it is in a buyers or sellers market.

#187 Ginette on 11.01.13 at 2:15 pm

Thanks to Chad and Paul. I do share your opinion. In Quebec, we adopted random numbers so brokers have no good reason to re-list in order to have a new number and look new on the market. The BROKER knows everything and this why the public has to work (and trust) the brokers. We have more information than could be published.We also have a mandatory seller’s declaration signed and published for the selling brokers only (not for the public) so the brokers are aware of any problem before visiting the property. Very helpful and useful at the time of the inspection. No surprises for anyone. Re-listing to look new? Chose du passé!

#188 Tom on 11.02.13 at 12:34 pm

I don’t see te problem here. If someone is trying to sell their house and it’s not happening, lowering the price and sprucing up the pictures would make sense.
Maybe their first realtor wasn’t getting it done so thy fired him and got a new one who relisted things their way.
And if it didn’t sell because people saw some flaws in it then any new buyers will probably find the same flaws. As for the mold/swimming pool paint, there are bad apples out there, that’s life most decent sellers will try to resolve the issues properly I’d think.

Seems like you’ve got a hate on for the “cartels”