Surprise

Surprise 1

Beautiful and well maintained double size mobile in clean adult-only park (Homestead Acres). This home stayed dry throughout the flooding and so there is NO FLOOD DAMAGE. The front doors are being replaced this week. – Kijiji listing, High River, Alberta.

The woman pointed into the chasm that used to be her Etobicoke backyard. ‘I’ve lived here for forty years,’ she told the CityTV camera, ‘and I have never seen anything like it. Who’s going to fix this?’ True enough, the garden was gone. Washed away in a vortex of angry water, now pretending to be a sleepy creek in a benign urban ravine. Just one of thousands of GTA homeowners whose properties were slammed by flash flooding earlier this month.

Of course, that episode was nothing compared to the misery that hit Calgary and High River, when the rains wouldn’t quit and rivers stopped being ruly. Suddenly everything from luxury riverfront homes to downtown condo buildings were massively compromised – the second major flood in eight years.

Extreme weather leads the news most days, fresh evidence climate change deniers have migrated to the lunatic fringe. And nowhere are people more immediately impacted than with their real estate.

In the 60 days prior to the floods in Calgary, almost a thousand properties changed hands in those areas which ended up under water. Most of those deals were not yet closed when the streets turned into lakes. Lots of ink has been spilled over the destroyed basements and displaced families, as is natural, but what of those people who bought a house and arranged financing on it?

Or how about owning a home in a neighbourhood that was under water, with a mortgage coming due? Will the bank honour that commitment? Even if the real estate escaped damage, would a lower property value mean the full mortgage amount might not be offered?

Finally some good information is seeping through, after weeks of local realtors claiming a natural disaster would actually make everybody richer by increasing property values (seriously). While houses on higher ground may briefly command a premium, you can expect those on the floodplain to be permanently devalued. After all, extreme weather is probably just beginning.

Here’s what we now know.

Appraisers in Calgary and High River have been told by the lenders they work for to throw away the valuations they had for properties recently sold in the affected areas, and to reappraise them. I can guarantee the end results will not be higher. The same thing is happening for existing homeowners who have mortgages coming up for renewal in the next few weeks or months. Those who do not have substantial equity in their homes – at least 20% – could find themselves under water all over again.

TD Bank confirms it’s reassessing every application for a new mortgage, or a renewal, in southern Alberta. Scotiabank says a similar process is happening for the region. And mortgage brokers are warning clients that lenders can refuse to honour commitments they made if they suspect property values in an area have declined, whether the specific property being financed was affected by flooding, or not.

This is also true for renewals. While most homeowners think an existing mortgage will be automatically renewed so long as payments are current, it’s simply not the case. As mortgage broker Mike Boyle told the Calgary Herald on the weekend, “I think a lot of people are going to get blindsided now when their term expires if there’s been damage to the home or the market values in an area have gone down.”

A drop in property prices, of course, means less financing since conventional mortgages cover only 80% of the value of the home. So a $600,000 home with a $480,000 mortgage, which loses 15% of its value due to flood-prone location would qualify for only $408,000 in financing. The homeowner would have to find $72,000 to pay the lender in order to receive a renewal.

Which brings us to the larger question.

If some water can do that, why not a real estate correction?

chase

190 comments ↓

#1 Donald Trump on 07.21.13 at 5:24 pm

First in all things

#2 Captian and Mrs Slow on 07.21.13 at 5:25 pm

Thanks, I myself wondered how this would play out myself. Any chance the feds will step in if this becomes a big problem? I mean I don’t now many people who can come up with that kind of money.

BTW thaks for banishing the “Firsters”

#3 Short Vowels on 07.21.13 at 5:29 pm

Wow. I guess it won’t be long until some Calgary homeowners are underwater again.

yuck yuck yuck.

#4 Rob_in_TO on 07.21.13 at 5:35 pm

Yeah, “why not a real estate correction”…as in many places

#5 Priced Out in Toronto on 07.21.13 at 5:37 pm

# 1 – Donald Trump

I can never understand how you consistently get that giant head of yours (hair and all) up your own a$$.

#6 Freedom First on 07.21.13 at 5:38 pm

Surprise. Yes, the thing about surprises is that you don’t even see them coming or imagine something unexpected happening to you. It is called ignorance, which enables people to be able to go into hundreds of thousands of $$$$$$ and have all of their net worth in one asset. This is why Garth writes his FREE blog. To protect you from yourself making any assumptions. The answer is having a balanced and re-balanced, diversified, and liquid portfolio. No exception. There will always be surprises. And consequences for the unbalanced………the majority.

#7 Andrewski on 07.21.13 at 5:39 pm

Re: #1 Donald Trump, When one strives to come first, another is left not coming.

#8 Van guy on 07.21.13 at 5:49 pm

Nobody believes that upon renewal, that could happen. Why? Because prices haven’t reversed enough yet. A person knows something based on experience. Canada hasn’t experienced it yet, so some of us will soon find out.

These last 3-4 months in the Van and Richmond market, things have settled a bit and prices are up yoy. Prices at rent racing down in Rich anymore. Townhomes are selling quick and houses below 900k moving quite steadily. The last wave of interest rates declining gave buyers the opportunity to buy. So what does this mean food prices? Flat until rates rise!

#9 father on 07.21.13 at 5:56 pm

garth your a god send one day without you got me househorny. Here in vancouver I am surrounded by bull’s telling me prices are only going up and the bulls got me thinking about buying but again I was saved by you

#10 Squatter on 07.21.13 at 5:56 pm

If some water can do that, why not a real estate correction? – Garth

Is it the title of tomorrow’s blog?

#11 Halifax Observer on 07.21.13 at 5:58 pm

Calgary Realtor responds to the Calgary Herald’s “Deluge of buyers” article;

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2013/07/16/deluge-of-calgary-home-buyers/#comments

Very interesting commentary. It’s nice to see informed Realtors keep their sensationalist colleagues in check.

#12 Halifax Observer on 07.21.13 at 6:00 pm

In other news, Halifax RE continues its descent into the abyss

http://www.halifaxrealestateblog.net/2/post/2013/07/the-halifax-real-estate-blog-weekly-statistics-update-and-market-report-every-thursday4.html

#13 Julie on 07.21.13 at 6:02 pm

http://investmentwatchblog.com/american-families-have-never-been-this-weak-economy-is-in-even-worse-condition-than-7-6-unemployment-the-next-economic-crisis-will-leave-millions-in-poverty/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Investmentwatch+%28InvestmentWatchBlog%29

1 million homeless children in the USA plus the rest of the article. While I agree with Garth that “global companies” are raking in cash……I will continue to say along with hundreds of others that read hundreds and hundreds more blogs between us that sorry I just don’t see this ginormous recovery in the police state USA. And we spend two months a year traveling around talking to real people to prove this.

#14 Snowboid on 07.21.13 at 6:07 pm

Maybe the Albertans are making their way west?

Re/Max latest recreational property report identifies 2013 turnaround!

According to this article (starts at Property positives?)

http://www.kelownadailycourier.ca/local-business/okanagan-lip-balm-goes-hollywood-72013.html

Of course they don’t mention these prices aren’t for recreational property only, but for all residential SFH waterfront – the actual recreational averages are closer to $ 145,000.

They also don’t mention, for example, the North Okanagan sales are down 50% for June and prices are down 32% (compared to June 2012).

Way to work the figures ReMax!

But a warning to Albertan investors/cabin seekers – the North Okanagan has similar flooding problems – the second year in a row (but last year was the worst).

#15 sasquatch on 07.21.13 at 6:08 pm

It has also been some bad news for some renters as well. A number of Land Lords have refused to give back damage deposits for suites ruined by the Calgary floods. While this is completely illegal, the only way to fight it, is to take the Land Lord to court. Given that some people lost everything in the floods, taking legal action is just too expensive.

#16 Steven on 07.21.13 at 6:20 pm

Expect institutional and real estate cultist resistance to falling prices to drag out the inevitable price decline.

First the laugh at the possibility of a collapse.
Then they stubbornly resist a collapse.
Finally they throw in the towel and admit their own greed went too far for too long and accept the unavoidable 90% plus loss on the price of real estate.

#17 Surprise — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate | The Affluent Boomer on 07.21.13 at 6:21 pm

[...] via Surprise — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate. [...]

#18 Mocha on 07.21.13 at 6:24 pm

“Washed away in a vortex of angry water, now pretending to be a sleepy creek in a benign urban ravine…”

poetic.

#19 Comrade-conrad on 07.21.13 at 6:38 pm

Ok Garth. What is the end play when the situation like you describes happens? People walk away from the homes Ala the 1980s when oil prices dropped? More debt? Bankruptcies? Foreclosures?

No, they end up bitter. And less wealthy. — Garth

#20 CalgaryFloodBoomAndrewABAndrewMartin on 07.21.13 at 6:38 pm

Over to you Bob…

#21 TurnerNation on 07.21.13 at 6:39 pm

To what Smoking man mentioned yesterday:
On Sat. someone leapt to their death, into the courtyard at Cityplace’s ‘Parade’ condo building, in Toronto. While not in the news residents posted pictures of the scene from above after emerg. had covered up the deceased. A co-workers lives in that one, will ask any details tomorrow.

The online thread I saw stated others knew of two similar incidents at the complex’s sprawl of buildings. One where the impact damage is still visible.

While condos are not to explicitly to blame have their 20-to-30-something residents ever had such available access to rapid self harm, eg. high balconies? Is financial stress somewhat in this picture?

In around 2006 my workplace was almost next to a condo tower. We were on a lower floor. Heard a scream and loud thump. I knew, right away, what it was. Police came by, talked to those who were closer to it. Never heard what happened.

This stuff is never it the news, how common is it??

#22 Geology Joe on 07.21.13 at 6:46 pm

You lost me at the “climate deniers” garbage. Spoken like a true mindless politician spewing dogmatic bafflegab that they know nothing about. You and Barack; what a team!!

Explain to me, (as I’m one who you would denigrate as a “Climate change Denier”), when exactly, did the climate NEVER change? As a geologist, I can most assuredly tell you that it has since the beginning of time, but for some reason only politically trained individuals DENY that climate has ever changed. Scientists never do.

Who are the real Deniers here? Seems to me that the eco-nuts and the politicAl hacks have all decided that prior to July 11, 1991, all weather was perfect, storms and tornadoes never existed and that anything that deviates from that day is all due to demon carbon.

I guess Noah must have had a carbon issue as well as it rained for 40 days and 40 nights. But then, like today, it was God’s/Gaia’s punishment for the evil and wickedness of man.

Garth, I love your column, but your lack of understanding of science is breathtaking in it’s completeness

Stick to what you know.

PS. I’m dumping my US equities ETF tomorrow. See? I do agree with some of your musings.

Without you, we wouldn’t have mainstream thought. Thank you. — Garth

#23 Ann on 07.21.13 at 6:46 pm

16 Steven on 07.21.13 at 6:20 pm Expect institutional and real estate cultist resistance to falling prices to drag out the inevitable price decline.

First the laugh at the possibility of a collapse.
Then they stubbornly resist a collapse.
Finally they throw in the towel and admit their own greed went too far for too long and accept the unavoidable 90% plus loss on the price of real estate.
——————————————————————-
90% Go back to the basement lol

#24 Calgary on 07.21.13 at 6:48 pm

Garth: the comment about “deniers” being on the lunatic fringe was gratuitous. Could the flooding possibly have anything to do with a very heavy series of snowfalls which were melting at the time the heavy rains occurred? Perhaps you should stick to what you know best – real estate values – and leave the “denier” bashing to the leftards. All the best.

Yeah, of course. There was a ton of snow melting in Toronto three weeks ago, too. — Garth

#25 Geology Joe on 07.21.13 at 6:51 pm

Oh yes, and only an idiot would build/buy a property on a floodplain and then be amazed that, by gosh… it flooded. That’s why they call them ….. ready for it.???

Floodplains.

#26 Alex K on 07.21.13 at 6:56 pm

Just got back from Halifax, spent a day in Chester NS and can tell you that there are a shit load of houses for sale and that’s a fact.

#27 Alex K on 07.21.13 at 7:02 pm

#15 sasquatch
there is a way, don’t pay rent for a month or two

#28 Evangeline on 07.21.13 at 7:03 pm

maybe some enterprising condo developer will come up with an ark development.

#29 Ken R on 07.21.13 at 7:08 pm

I’ve seen the cat and fox event in my own back yard. There’s more to an old alley cat than meets the eye.

#30 Donald Trump on 07.21.13 at 7:11 pm

Re Blog Photo:

I hope that Fox and Cat see that rock sneaking up behind them (Top Left Corner)..or is that a civil servant?

#31 dienekes on 07.21.13 at 7:13 pm

I know a lot of builders in Saskatoon, quite well. Can’t say how I know them as they may read this blog and know who I am. Some have mentioned things are not moving like before.

#32 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.21.13 at 7:13 pm

I guess when Garth says to invest in liquid assets, he doesn’t mean flooded basements and underwater backyards.

#33 Snowboid on 07.21.13 at 7:19 pm

#13 Julie on 07.21.13 at 6:02 pm…

No doubt the US has challenges, but the claim of one million homeless children seems a tad high, when there are a total of 6,632 indicated in the HUD report from 2012.

In fact the total number of homeless is reported as 633,782 – still way short of a million.

Source: https://www.onecpd.info/reports/CoC_PopSub_NatlTerrDC_2012.pdf

In the US, this would be about .2% of the total population.

In Canada there are an estimated mininum 200,000 homeless (multiple sources), which sadly is far worse than the US at .4% of the population.

In fact, Arizona with about 6.5 million people – has an estimated 11,000 homeless – the same as BC with 4.6 million people!

While your experience travelling two months a year may not show a recovery, our six months a year down south shows otherwise.

The economy is improving much faster than expected in Phoenix, and based on our volunteer work down south compared to that in Kelowna – the organizations to help the less fortunate are far better down south.

#34 drydock on 07.21.13 at 7:22 pm

Never underestimate fluffy.

#35 AK on 07.21.13 at 7:22 pm

#1 Donald Trump on 07.21.13 at 5:24 pm
“First in all things”
——————————————————————–
I always thought you were an A$$hole.

#36 Kevin on 07.21.13 at 7:31 pm

Wear the fox hat!

#37 Rob on 07.21.13 at 7:37 pm

I guess the flood victims will eventually demand the government (tax payers) to bail them out, since its our fault for not reminding the realtor to notify people the home is in a flood zone before signing their life a way.

#38 East Van on 07.21.13 at 7:47 pm

Garth.

After talking about climate change, I bet Harper wishes he could fire you all over again.

Highest Regards.

#39 Geology Joe on 07.21.13 at 7:48 pm

Garth:

Try learning a bit about science:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/21/ten-years-of-accelerated-global-warming/#more-90236

Not political theater, or political science, but something about graphs and charts. If these charts showed you data on why you need to invest in a “new investment” you would be shorting the bee-jesus out of it.

Actually I did not mention global warming. But knock yourself out. — Garth

#40 JulinCR on 07.21.13 at 7:55 pm

To #15 sasquatch

If a landlord is refusing to return a damage deposit, he/she is up for a nasty surprise. The renter doesn’t even need a lawyer to go to Small Claims Court. Not only the renter’s deposit will be returned, their moving or any other reasonable expenses will be ordered by Court to be paid to the renters.

So in this situation, not only such a landlord has water damage to deal with, he/she might have to pay several thousands dollars to the renter (former renter) . If he/she doesn’t pay all the amount that the Court ordered, the unhappy renter can put a lien on the property, or even foreclose, if things go that far. So, my advice to the novice landlords: play it nice!

#41 Geology Joe on 07.21.13 at 7:55 pm

Yeah, of course. There was a ton of snow melting in Toronto three weeks ago, too. — Garth

Dumb comment Garth. Now every storm is evidence of climate change???? Pray tell then, when is a storm just a storm?

Your magical, selective thinking on this topic is only topped by Obama’s. Nobody, not even his supporters in Senate agreed with the garbage he spewed in his climate change speech.

Riddle: What do you call a storm when nobody’s built a house in a flood prone area that was flooded?

A storm.

Now, What do you call a storm when millions of dollars of real estate was built in a flood prone area?

Evidence of climate change.

Storms don’t care who built what where.

#42 Geology Joe on 07.21.13 at 8:00 pm

Actually I did not mention global warming. But knock yourself out. — Garth

You insulted every scientifically trained person out there with your “Deniers” comments?

Care to retract or apologize?

#43 Alberta Ed on 07.21.13 at 8:01 pm

Climate has been changing ever since the earth coalesced. Myriad factors, many which are unknown or poorly understood, drive climate. Natural change is frequently cataclysmic, at least in human terms. The recent floods in Calgary and Toronto are not unique weather events. Lack of foresight in municipal planning, and people building in vulnerable areas are major factors in those disasters. But the greatest threat to human life in North America (except possibly the Yellowstone Caldera) lies along the west coast. When the Cascadia Fault breaks loose again (the last time was Jan. 26, 1700), the devastation from northern California to northern British Columbia will affect millions, not just thousands. Much of Greater Vancouver is built along the Fraser River on sedimentary soil subject to liquefaction, not to mention the inevitable damage to roads and bridges, water supplies, power lines, hospitals, gas pipelines and harbours and ports. Property values will be dramatically reset.

#44 AK on 07.21.13 at 8:15 pm

How Cheap Are Houses In Detroit Right Now?

#45 tigerbaby on 07.21.13 at 8:17 pm

> … Seems to me that the eco-nuts and the politicAl hacks have all decided that prior to July 11, 1991, all weather was perfect …

as a self proclaimed scientist, would you please provide references to published papers in well-known and respected journals to support your position? surely better than nonsensical hyperboles like the above.

#46 sasquatch on 07.21.13 at 8:23 pm

#27 Alex K
refusing to pay rent is not an option as the suites are literately unlivable, and the lease is obviously voided. Some basement suites were filled with a foot of mud/debris and the water level reached several feet above the next level.

#47 Cow Man on 07.21.13 at 8:23 pm

Sir Garth:
There has definitely been climate change over my 65 years. Who knows if it is man made or just the world unravelling as it will? What I find totally unacceptable is our new “green” urban land use planning. A least in the Region of Halton we have gone from moving the water down stream in an efficient manner, to clogging up the flow with “storm water management ponds” and naturalization areas. In a couple decades when these “natural areas” have silted in, and over grown with willows etc. massive flooding will occur. Makes good press but bad storm water management. Hug a tree and watch your house flood.

#48 a prairie dawg on 07.21.13 at 8:26 pm

So we’re not richer than we think anymore? That was fast. lol

#49 Conrad on 07.21.13 at 8:26 pm

@ 15. Those ppl get the shaft be their landlords could file a commercial lien. Google it eh!

#50 Peter S on 07.21.13 at 8:29 pm

Recent action in Suburb of Vancouver BC

Approx 2 weeks ago 1/2 property with liveable house
in Brookswood Langley listed for $599k. within a very few days 13 interested parties. Deadline given of a few days to put in best offer….10 offers, $671k accepted no subjects. There were Unhappy potential buyers who did not act
fast enough to place bid. Within a few days was flipped for 715k. 44k quick profit to sign over interim.
No sewer in this area so pricey septic treatment plant required to allow subdivision into 2 x 1/4 acre lots.
Lots will ready in maybe a year.

Vancouver city may be slowing but suburbs are very different.

Maybe reality of new Port Mann Bridge (the WIDEST bridge in the world according to Wiki) is sinking in

#51 sasquatch on 07.21.13 at 8:29 pm

#41 JulinCR

Even small claims court costs money. For those living pay check to pay check, and now needing to replace all their worldly possessions, it is simply not affordable.

#52 KommyKim on 07.21.13 at 8:36 pm

RE: #22 Geology Joe on 07.21.13 at 6:46 pm
I guess Noah must have had a carbon issue as well as it rained for 40 days and 40 nights. But then, like today, it was God’s/Gaia’s punishment for the evil and wickedness of man.

Garth, I love your column, but your lack of understanding of science is breathtaking in it’s completeness

Wow, your inclusion of Noah really boosts your scientific credibility.

#53 Andrew on 07.21.13 at 8:39 pm

Does most home insurance cover flood damage or other “acts of god”?

None. — Garth

#54 CalgaryVultures on 07.21.13 at 8:42 pm

http://calgary.kijiji.ca/c-real-estate-houses-for-sale-FLOODED-OUT-FRUSTRATED-UNAFFORDABLE-REPAIRS-JUST-WANT-OUT-W0QQAdIdZ500454158

They’re out in full force now!

#55 Canadian Watchdog on 07.21.13 at 8:47 pm

Expanded Alberta program could help temporary foreign workers stay in Canada

EDMONTON – Temporary foreign workers will now be able to nominate themselves for permanent residency, the province announced Thursday morning.

David Suzuki says Canada is ‘full’ and calls country’s immigration policy ‘crazy’

Environmentalist icon David Suzuki says Canada’s immigration policy is “disgusting” for contributing to a brain drain from poorer countries and that Canada doesn’t have enough room to accommodate many more newcomers.

Immigration Minister Jason Kenney blasted Suzuki, calling his remarks “toxic and irresponsible” on Twitter. He also said a conservative making the same comments about immigration would have received swift denunciations from media.

Well, at least someone said it. But what's more interesting is that 70% of Canadians agreed with Suzuki's view. So who's on Kenny's side? Immigrants?

#56 JulinCR on 07.21.13 at 8:56 pm

#52 sasquatch on 07.21.13 at 8:29 pm
#41 JulinCR

Even small claims court costs money. For those living pay check to pay check, and now needing to replace all their worldly possessions, it is simply not affordable.

Not true. It costs VERY little to file a claim and you get it back right away anyway.

About your personal possessions: it’s not your landlord’s responsibility. You, as a renter, should have a renters’ insurance in place (if your staff is valuable).

I guess, there are no winners in these circumstances..

#57 Gary M on 07.21.13 at 8:57 pm

Was hurricane Hazel in the 1950s also due to “climate change”? How about the largest recorded floods that occurred at the beginning of the century? The largest rainfall event in Calgary occurred in 1962. How come no major flooding occurred back then?

The reality is that urban flooding is mostly a result of bad development practices and poor watershed management. The creation of impervious areas, removal of native vegetation, and soil compaction severely reduce the absorption and retention potential of the land among urban catchments. As both runoff rate (flow), quantity (volume) increase, water quality decreases, and current stormwater management practices prove inadequate, expect increases in flooding, erosion, and eutrophication along our streams. Low Impact Development (LID) and retrofitting of existing infrastructure may help in the long term, but these solutions are expensive and not necessarily feasible.

Regarding rainfall data, IDF (intensity-duration-frequency) curves are constantly being updated. It is ill-informed to say that “in Calgary two 1:100 year events occurred within 6 years” because the data used to extrapolate these events spans less than 50 years. In other words, statistically, this is junk. Obviously, the 1:100 year will approach its true value as more data is collected, and many floodplain maps will need to be revised.

But, of course, it’s a lot easier to blame all of this on the boogeyman. Something about carbon taxes…

#58 espressobob on 07.21.13 at 9:08 pm

You have a point “Geology Joe”! After all, the latest ice age was without a doubt the workings of “man”. And who the hell is Christopher Monckter,? Oh yeah right, he’s a journalist.

Somehow I don’t think this makes for investing? Wrong blog maybe? Check your ‘favorites bar’.

#59 Freedom First on 07.21.13 at 9:11 pm

Garth, I for one really appreciate your sound financial advice, and also, the way in which it has really helped me in my everyday life in my conversations with people. I now know, from your blog, and all the people who argue with you about RE, that the majority of Canadians are financially illiterate, so I keep my mouth shut in all financial conversations. Another thing, the lunatic fringe on every topic: environmental/political/financial/lifestyle/etc. are everywhere, but it is nice to see who they are on your blog too. Freedom First.

#60 Victor V on 07.21.13 at 9:13 pm

#55 CalgaryVultures on 07.21.13 at 8:42 pm

http://calgary.kijiji.ca/c-real-estate-houses-for-sale-FLOODED-OUT-FRUSTRATED-UNAFFORDABLE-REPAIRS-JUST-WANT-OUT-W0QQAdIdZ500454158

They’re out in full force now!

——————

As of 9:13PM (and before blog dogs had at it) that advert had garnered 559 views. Lots of eyeballs.

#61 45north on 07.21.13 at 9:16 pm

Extreme weather leads the news most days, fresh evidence climate change deniers have migrated to the lunatic fringe. And nowhere are people more immediately impacted than with their real estate.

hmm Hurricane Hazel was one of the most extreme weather ever around Toronto. I think it was the most extreme. No one says that it was caused by climate change. Extreme weather does more damage because the world is more built-up than ever. I mean if Hurricane Hazel had happened a 1000 years ago it wouldn’t have flooded any basements.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hazel#Canada_2

as far as leading the news, why not? I mean the news networks, send a crew, they check in to a hotel, they get lots of great video, interviews with public officials, ordinary people. What’s not to like?

Appraisers in Calgary and High River have been told by the lenders they work for to throw away the valuations they had for properties recently sold in the affected areas, and to reappraise them. I can guarantee the end results will not be higher.

I guess the people with pending sales are getting the message. Whether buyers or sellers. Talk about extreme whether.

#62 Andre D on 07.21.13 at 9:21 pm

“Extreme weather leads the news most days, fresh evidence climate change deniers have migrated to the lunatic fringe.” Hey, if millions of people say the same thing it must be true ! …Garth you are playing the same game then MSM, sad.
The temperature of the earth is cooling since 1998… even IPCC confirm. And it will be warming and it will be cooling etc…. for another few millions years at least.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc3/s403x403/972060_10151725605464362_1003929269_n.jpg

#63 valleyrenter on 07.21.13 at 9:27 pm

#21-TurnerNation, more often than you think. 1-2 a week in Vancouver, sometimes more.

#51-Peter S, not surprising in Brookswood. Langley Township flipped a coin years ago and Willoughby won. Brookswood is going to be the next area of growth. It’s in the O.C.P.

#64 CantRememberMyName on 07.21.13 at 9:31 pm

Loved the pictures today. LOL.

#65 Spiltbongwater on 07.21.13 at 9:32 pm

It hasn’t rained all month in Vancouver. I am going to go idle my car to help this climate change.
#loveclimatechange#SPFCO2

#66 Dienekes on 07.21.13 at 9:33 pm

Is this a weather blog or a Realestate blog?
The weather comments are boring me.

#67 takla on 07.21.13 at 9:41 pm

yup ,red-tailed fox,excellent cat hunter,we used to have them on the farm and they live by thier eye-sight and their noses and are usually totally nocturnal,how’d you coux that one into the daylight garth?I guess the cat would know

#68 craZED and a little confused on 07.21.13 at 9:48 pm

Hi Garth,

Thanks for being there. I did the math from renting and buying.
my rent just under $700/ mth for 1 bedroom basment in vancouver . If i bought a 1 bedroom t/h ,it would be $1600 mth in burnaby w/o addeding the extra gas for traveling to work. i honestly dont think this will end. long term trend when interest rates go up to normal levels, people will forgo vacation/ school/ restaurants before they sell their house.

this will be bad because we are a 70 % consumption economy…what will happen then. i have stocks in 30 % / 70 % cash in form of GIC some of it market linked. if it takes stop loss and keep most of my gains . my stocks are blue chip , high market cap with 2-5 % dividends – auto reinvest.

if market corrects harshly buy again already scouting out some gooed etf… some reits.

you dont know what its ike hear. peope talk about rea estate everywhere …even in the men locker room at the gym. Someone early twenty something asking to bother 15 K as downpayment for a property?…eveywhere.. no one talk about stocks…it too complicated…too much reading :(

#69 Peter shifts on 07.21.13 at 9:49 pm

When the gold bull market is done, 1300 per ounce will look like a bargoon. No central banker can increase rates – got that. It would be political suicide for any leader in place, and people all over the west cant deal with it.

Later suckersssss.

#70 AK on 07.21.13 at 9:50 pm

#33 Snowboid on 07.21.13 at 7:19 pm
“The economy is improving much faster than expected in Phoenix, and based on our volunteer work down south compared to that in Kelowna – the organizations to help the less fortunate are far better down south.”
——————————————————————–
It’s not just in Phoenix, but in many other states as well.
Ben is trying very hard to keep the long end of the curve down with his bullshit talk, but he will not be able to succeed much longer.
The U.S. job reports over the next 3 months will confirm these facts.

#71 not 1st on 07.21.13 at 9:55 pm

Banks….they are so happy to get you hooked on their heroin debt, but are quick to change the rules in their favor if there is any inkling of risk to them.

There is truly something to be said about being debt free and having the banker out of your pocket for good. We really have to get back to basics, shut down the consumerism and enjoy all the free things in life and pay cash for the things that aren’t.

#72 KommyKim on 07.21.13 at 9:55 pm

RE: #63 Andre D on 07.21.13 at 9:21 pm
The temperature of the earth is cooling since 1998… even IPCC confirm.

Are you one of those daytraders who deny that the 200 day moving average exists?

Solar cycles have an average duration of about 11 years. Think about that for a bit.

#73 Dragonslayer on 07.21.13 at 10:03 pm

RE: Geology Joe- #22.
Don’t know where to begin. You reference science yet present your argument with all the rationality and objectivity of a kid in the playground. And, indeed, citing Noah to back your argument might not have been the wisest.
I would say if you put 1000 credible (not funded by Big Oil) scientists in a room, 995 would say climate change and global warming are real and caused by human activity- ie. fossil fuel related. Clearly your side is losing the argument as more and more people and governments are coming to the same conclusion.
Thank god the younger generation is cluing in, which makes sense as they have the most to lose.
Best stick to geology….

#74 retiredbumboomer on 07.21.13 at 10:07 pm

Wait until the trend of getting 40% down on a to be built condo in Florida which is the norm there moves north forced by lenders. The Banks here are going to take a hit along with the C$ when we get hit with CMHC defaults. I say 6 month before the bubble bursts at the most. Time to write calls on my bank shares?

#75 Nemesis on 07.21.13 at 10:09 pm

@TheAmerican/#184 PriorThread

T’wasTruly a TaleOfTwoCities.

Thank you for that [but next time... pretty please - throw in some paragraph breaks].

I’m sorry, ElYanqui – but it’s virtually impossible for me to be impartial/objective about this… as YVR was, once upon a time, home…

…and SEA was always the place we Mariners ‘o FantasyIsland VenturedForth for FUN… when “home” paled.

E.G. – SeattleSeaFestival, ’78. I couldn’t buy a drink in your town… or a meal… Such was the hospitality. TheFervour!

Speaking of NotableFervour [mine]… There was ThatParade. The CheerLeaderChauffered one. TwoUpFront… Two on either hip… GiftWrapped in an AnniversaryEdition Corvette.

Cue: CheeringCrowds…

[sorry about that, SmokingMan - if it makes you feel any better, it was probably just the uniform]…

BonusZen? A a brief stint on WIX-327 USCGC Eagle [an American WarPrize/formerly the Nazi "Horst Wessel"]…

So. Seriously?

Being HighlyBiased… ForFun… It’s Seattle.

And it always will be.

[Just ask our host about JavaJugs sometime...]

#76 a prairie dawg on 07.21.13 at 10:09 pm

#39 East Van

– — –

The good ship ‘Dictatorship’ is heading for the rocks. Before the next election he’ll have a few things he’ll wish he could do over.

#77 observer on 07.21.13 at 10:11 pm

I’m sure Crea will make good new out of this.

After all once all these people go under water won’t they just go bankrupt and then buy again. Creating a new army of buyers.

Mabey the government should sponsor these broke-ass loser and give more money to lose!!!

Mabey the Government should just build a bigger casino and give them government guarantee money to gamble away. As long as they have a heartbeat they should be Privy to get unilimited funds to gamble away

#78 Nosty in VladMadLand on 07.21.13 at 10:16 pm

-
Surprise? Re: CC and all that yada yada boring yada stuff — An-na One an-na two due to the present Sun Spot cycle drawing to a close. It appears we’re about to get a whole lotta colder and wetter than previously imagined.

Guess the Sun and its Spots have grown increasingly disenchanted with us puny, meddling humanoids interfering with the natural lifecycles of others, and has decided to step back and let us squabble ourselves to a freezing cold death. Fair dinkums mate!

#79 HD on 07.21.13 at 10:18 pm

#103The American on 07.20.13 at 2:59 am

Yesterday’s post.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts.

I asked because I usually appreciate your perspective on other topics and thought it would interesting to know what somebody like you feels about this case from the inside.

Best,

HD

#80 Mark on 07.21.13 at 10:28 pm

“The Banks here are going to take a hit along with the C$ when we get hit with CMHC defaults. I say 6 month before the bubble bursts at the most. Time to write calls on my bank shares?”

Why would the banks “take a hit” when they receive 100 cents on the dollar from the CMHC for any defaulted mortgages?

The Government of Canada is legally obligated to bail out the CMHC, and the CMHC is legally obligated to pay on insurance claims in full. To do anything else would be a larger issue of the abrogation of the rule of law.

RE collapses and the associated deflation are usually quite positive for currencies. I expect the CAD$ will surge significantly as RE collapses and there is a lending slowdown. Remember, each loan taken out (mortgage) is an effective ‘short’ on the C$, and those will be wound down.

#81 Ryan Perich on 07.21.13 at 10:31 pm

to Comrade-conrad on 07.21.13 at 6:38 pm

Ok Garth. What is the end play when the situation like you describes happens? People walk away from the homes Ala the 1980s when oil prices dropped? More debt? Bankruptcies? Foreclosures?

I tried that walk away thing in 2007 when my condo I bought was for $170,000, the city of Edmonton evaluated it for $185,000, and I couldn’t sell it for even $120,000 (not one phone call in 3 months).

guess what – the bank / lender MIGHT let you walk away from it if you have 20 % down. Otherwise they will sue you. Most people have 5-10 % down – CMHC forces the lender to sue you if the lender wants their money back. in the 1980’s everyone had 20 % down to even purchase a home – thus making it possible to walk away. This is no longer the case for the vast, vast majority. you will get sued and you will have to declare bankruptcy, and for most people that means minimum 21 months in bankruptcy + 6 years on credit file = 8 years.

#82 Vincent on 07.21.13 at 10:31 pm

#22 was one of the best troll comment I have ever read on this site; when I got to the Noah part I laughed so hard I almost spilled my blueberries everywhere!

It had everything I wanted out of an entertaining comment: political jabs, conspiracy theories, the likeable “Joe” aspect, neurotic love/hate, bible-thumping, strawmen arguments, etc…

On a more practical note, we usually talk about Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) to specifically discuss this subject. It helps avoid such masterful trolls baiting us into empty debates (don’t feed the troll!)
Common sense is also useful in the same way… But I guess we collectively ran out of that when we allowed entire cities built in flood plains or in known landslide/sinkhole/hazardous areas.

#83 Debtfree on 07.21.13 at 10:48 pm

Still wondering about that overland insurance thingy ?

#84 Debtfree on 07.21.13 at 10:50 pm

Err overland flooding insurance thingy .

#85 A Nightmare on Bay Street on 07.21.13 at 10:57 pm

@ Geology Joe

Why are you deniers flipping out that much ?

Nothing is done to try to solve the problem.
We burn more and more fuel each year.
The Government is bailing out Ford and GM with hundreds of millions.
Oil&Energy lobbies have their own private backdoor to the Congress.
China burn coal massively without any form of legislation.
People wear gaz mask in heavily populated cities.

Dont worry. We will buy your oil. You wont lose your 200k job at Shell Inc anytime soon.

#86 TakingResponsibility on 07.21.13 at 11:11 pm

“…lenders can refuse to honour commitments they made if they suspect property values in an area have declined, whether the specific property being financed was affected by flooding, or not.”

**** Meh, we don’t worry in Alberta. Any affected Lenders and owners may be “bought out” by … guess who?…. The Taxpayers!

Yup! That real fundamentally Right Conservative bastion called the Wildrose party of Alberta is encouraging taxpayers buying out individual’s whose property suffered from flooding – so they can buy somewhere else!

Lemon Socialism.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/story/2013/07/19/calgary-high-river-meeting-smith-ableg.html

Or, perhaps Political Opportunism. Political Scavengers – just like Realtor Scavengers.

#87 Bryan Berndt on 07.21.13 at 11:13 pm

Two great winter economies ago, wheat production was subsidized by credit in the USA. When the Crimean war ended in Russia, their wheat production brought back online created a surplus which brought global prices down. Because the American farmers were so heavily indebted (paying interest on interest), margins were low, so it was enough to trigger mass bankruptcy and the civil war.

On the floods which have led to Real Estate depreciation in Alberta, a question…. Do the insurance companies not pay for the damage to bring the homes value back up? Or do these mortgages they have not require insurance on the asset they have loaned against?

On the floods and Climate Change, are you saying CO2 is the primary driver of increasing events of weather disaster? Or simply that you don’t know the cause of said floods, but are advocating for some kind of trend of increasing activity of severe weather events?

Every year there are weather records being set all over the world of various types. Thanks to the internet we learn about them much more easily. The first question is whether there are correlatable trends. The second question is whether these are simply correlations or actually prove causation. The floods in Toronto and Calgary are not part of any trendline whatsoever. Similarly the heatwaves and droughts in the US Southwest are not part of any trendline either. (graphs to follow)

For example the hyperbolic news headlines about the near record heat in the US Southwest implicitly had to acknowledge that almost exactly 100 years ago, in June 1913, in California, Arizona and Nevada the temperatures were actually higher than the recent alarmism.

The UK Met’s Hadley Climate Research temperature data, like Real Estate data suggesting a cyclical top or peak, sure implies in their latest update Cyclicality of temp. With the hot sliver from the 1850’s Southern Hemisphere and the temperature stagnation/potential apogee currently.
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/CRUTEM4.pdf

Graphs showing no correlated (let alone causative) trends in severe weather events. In fact Hurricane Hazel in the 1950’s was much worst than the recent floods in Canada.

Global Hurricane frequency
http://policlimate.com/tropical/global_major_freq.png

US Hurricanes 1851 – 2010
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/gw_hurricanes/fig33.jpg

US annual count of strong and violent tornadoes.
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/tornado/clim/EF3-EF5.png

Precipitation World Wide 1901-2009
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/images/indicator_figures/precipitation-figure2.gif

Journal Nature: Little change in global drought over the past 60 years
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v491/n7424/full/nature11575.html

#88 Sydneysider on 07.21.13 at 11:20 pm

A propos the remark “Climate change deniers have migrated to the lunatic fringe”.

If you want to find the lunatic fringe in any age of mankind, look for the groups who are dogmatic in their views, and have no scientific training.

#89 Scully on 07.21.13 at 11:21 pm

Wow Garth, you are sure getting beat up over your climate change arguments! Now, me…I am on the fence regarding this subject but the belittling comments are not winning me over. Geology Joe: I would like to see your point of view but I just can’t get my head that far up my ass! ;) Now go have a beer and relax.

#90 Canadian Watchdog on 07.21.13 at 11:32 pm

Despite the lack of empirical data to prove these flood events are related to climate change; UN Agendists will welcome Calgary's flood as another reason to push for more sustainability reforms.

2010 study warned of more frequent flooding in Calgary

Provincial and city officials were warned three years ago that climate change could cause Calgary to suffer more frequent and devastating floods.Despite the predictions of more intense rainfalls if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere increased, a 2010 engineering study suggested the worst-case inundation on the Bow and Elbow rivers still wouldn’t be as bad as previously predicted.

The $80,000 report — produced by Golder Associates consultants in Calgary for what is now Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development — was supposed to guide emergency response planning and flood mapping efforts by the province and the city.

Who is Golder Associates? Golder Associates Signs Copenhagen Communiqué

Golder Associates Corporation today became a signatory to the Copenhagen Communiqué, a statement being issued by the business leaders of over 600 global companies calling for an ambitious, robust and equitable global deal on climate change that responds credibly to the scale and urgency of the crises facing the world today.

Clearly a supporter of the Copenhagen Treaty. What did the Copenhagen Treaty call for?

1) World Government

2) Transfer of wealth from western to third world countries.

3) Environmental Enforcement: a global judicial system that punishes nations who don't comply with UN sustainability measures. (Those who abuse the earth's resources)

It's the same old hidden story again and again. Create a phony wealth effect for public support— then push communist reforms through to lower our standards of living. I feel bad for Calgarians because they're being duped, pillaged and Agenda 21-ed the same way the rest of Canada's major cities are.

The scary part is, they're training your kids to be good global citizens (their worlds) by living in 200 sq.ft. micro-condos and eating bugs to reduce their carbon footprint. Of course, this sounds crazy to westerners, which is why they're importing global citizens (debt slaves) who are willing to live in tiny boxes and consider a few Canadian red-legged grasshoppers for dinner.

This is where Canada is heading. So get used to it.

 

#91 ozy - OK SEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEL on 07.21.13 at 11:36 pm

OK SEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEL or buy motor-floats to visit your snoby neighbors

http://globalnews.ca/news/598817/42-areas-in-gta-at-risk-of-flooding-during-extreme-weather-events/#map1

#92 Vangrrl on 07.21.13 at 11:53 pm

#22 and #24:
Typical attack- claiming because one is not a scientist (although most scientists are unanimous that climate change is speeding up do to human activity), one does not have access to facts. But I guess if you give yourself the name Geology Joe you have more credibility?! Ha

Narrow minded right wingers in abundance on this thread- noted!

#93 HAWK on 07.21.13 at 11:59 pm

#45 AK on 07.21.13 at 8:15 pm

Yeah DEBT-ROIT is cheap alright, problem is (as the commentary following your article indicates) the security factor is as low as the prices.

#94 Guy_Fox on 07.22.13 at 12:12 am

Garth,

I would really like you to take the focus away from Vancouver and Calgary for a while and provide some analysis of what is happening in GTA. Why are townhomes in Milton and Mississauga still selling for 400K+? The 20 year detached homes in my neighbour hood of sauga are selling like hot cakes for 800+ and this is about 1 hour drive from Toronto. I have one theory but may be you or readers of this blog would think other wise. I think that majority of GTA residents are one way or another employed by a federal/provincial or crown corporation or its affiliate. I would like you to make a guess as to what the starting salaries are for following positions in public sector in Ontario, assuming these positions require only bachelors degree (4 year) and 0 years experience. (Clue: these salaries are publicly available through sunshine list):

1. Project Coordinator (Private Sector Pay ~ 40K)
2. Finance Grad / Analyst I (Pvt Sector Pay ~ 50K)
3. Business Grad / Analyst I (Pvt Sector Pay ~ 50K)

My public sector employer recently hired few Business/Finance grads fresh out of school with some co-op experience. You would not believe the starting salaries that these graduates get ($87,500 base salary + benefits). Not that I am complaining, just merely stating the facts so that we should correctly indicate the median household (x2) income in GTA as 200K (public sector) and not 100K as most often see in news and articles. And because of this fact a 400K townhome or 800K detached in suburbs is still a bargain. Couple that with infinite fiat money printing and 1% interest rate and you have all the reasons to be house horny !!

– Guy Fox

#95 Vangrrl on 07.22.13 at 12:15 am

Everyone should read (along with all of Garth’s books) James Hoggan’s Climate Cover up. He also does DeSmog Blog and interestingly enough, has been critical of the Watts guy that GI (er, Geology, I mean) Joe posted above. He has revealed that many of the so called experts who are anti-climate change have few, if any, peer reviewed articles and often (big surprise!) have connections to oil companies.

#96 Donald Trump on 07.22.13 at 12:30 am

#35 AK on 07.21.13 at 7:22 pm

#1 Donald Trump on 07.21.13 at 5:24 pm
“First in all things”
——————————————————————–
I always thought you were an A$$hole.

===============================

Now remember.

You work for Gov’t.

You were in charge of Alberta Flood early warning system.

= You deserve a bonus.

Also…being Monday…the stress of a weekend is too much……so call in sick. (Use up some of your 200 annual sick days ).

By Thursday, you have done enough work to equal the amount the real world works by Monday first coffee break.

Take Friday off to prepare for stressful weekend.

Repeat this pattern till Age+IQ = 55

#97 Timing is Everything on 07.22.13 at 12:39 am

Ya, blame it on the ‘weather’…We’re just getting ‘warmed’ up.

Global economic, financial and monetary collapse super storm is coming!

http://tinyurl.com/l3udw49

http://tinyurl.com/k7l7hau

#98 Gunboat denier on 07.22.13 at 12:43 am

Some light reading for BC residents

http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/wsd/data_searches/fpm/

“The Floodplain Mapping Program was a joint initiative by the federal and B.C. governments to provide information to help minimize flood damage in British Columbia. The program identified and mapped areas that were highly susceptible to flooding. These areas were designated as floodplains by the federal and provincial Environment Ministers.

Designated floodplains are subject to development restrictions. Crown agencies such as the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation do not support development on designated floodplains unless adequate floodproofing measures are taken. Local governments may impose further restrictions.”

#99 Stupid Fool on 07.22.13 at 12:49 am

Thanks for the blog Garth, not only great financial advice but reading the comments reminds me why I’m essentially a hermit. Rediculous comments can be skipped over, it is much more difficult when the idiot making such comments is standing in front of you and it’s verbal.

I like dogs so much more than people, always have but when I was young I didn’t know why.

#100 Jonah on 07.22.13 at 12:58 am

Rain or no rain, Filthy banks and their filthy mortgages would always win.

#101 Mike on 07.22.13 at 1:09 am

#21 TurnerNation

I am a Paramedic in southern Ontario. While I can’t speak to the actual number of suicides that result from falling from height as you describe, I can say that suicide in general is far more common than people realize. A significant portion of the traumas that I have seen were self-inflicted.

Most people think of suicide and depression as something that primarily affects adolescence and young adults. The truth is that the suicide rate for people over 50 is significantly higher than for all other age groups, and three times as high for males as females in this group. Many times it is difficult to determine what the person’s intention was, as the tragedy is often precipitated by erratic behavior and alcohol consumption.

After seeing it so routinely I have come to a sad conclusion. Humans possess the gift of self-awareness; this is a double-edged sword.

#102 s11 on 07.22.13 at 1:20 am

If sales continue moving they have been in the GVRD, this would be a non issue.

So far it’s 10% above 2011 levels and 30% above 2012 levels.

Will see if there’s still demand once the interest rates disappear, but there still seems to be tonnes of insanity in the Vancouver market.

Link? Not the stats I have seen. — Garth

#103 Julie on 07.22.13 at 1:30 am

#33 Snowboid on 07.21.13 at 7:19 pm
#13 Julie on 07.21.13 at 6:02 pm…

No doubt the US has challenges, but the claim of one million homeless children seems a tad high, when there are a total of 6,632 indicated in the HUD report from 2012.

In fact the total number of homeless is reported as 633,782 – still way short of a million.

Source: https://www.onecpd.info/reports/CoC_PopSub_NatlTerrDC_2012.pdf

In the US, this would be about .2% of the total population.
———————————————

1. You are relying on govt stats and govts always lie.

2. How much real estate do you cover in your travels? We generally cover 5000 miles each trip. The one in Oct was 9000. Phoenix is one (getaway/investment) area of the USA. Stop in the hundreds of towns along thousands of miles over 15 states and visit all the dead zones and tell me that goes for you.

#104 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 07.22.13 at 1:30 am

@#43 Geology Joe

Have you been smoking petrified dinosaur poo again?

Just as everyone knows Dinosaur extinction was caused by their smoking cigarettes…..

We all know Global warming is caused by millions of cows farting…….
Think of it.
Millions of Bovine “fraps” causing glaciers to melt.

If we could only get them to eat tofu………

#105 Julie on 07.22.13 at 1:40 am

Vancouver city may be slowing but suburbs are very different.

Maybe reality of new Port Mann Bridge (the WIDEST bridge in the world according to Wiki) is sinking in

We never go to raincouver anymore because of that bridge. The govt can take the 6 billion they pissed away for the two week party for rich people Olympics which means we had to pay for the bridge in tolls and shove it you know where.

#106 gtrz4peace on 07.22.13 at 2:07 am

It’s been a bit since we posted, but cannot forgo this one. The amount of Climate Change Deniers on this blog does not surprise us, but really you people need to STOP calling yourself “science minded.”

Science PROVES the existence of manmade climate change and so far, it looks like it will be a rocky ride. All of you deniers out there — and yes, I mean those on this blog — are only making it more difficult to do anything at all about it.

The real travesty is what this is leaving your children. Or perhaps they will all be fine in their preppie paradises, bartering with their gold nuggets.

Yeesh. Do some reading on how the cigarette industry used the same “science” arguments to “prove” cigarettes did not cause cancer. You can see how well that “science” worked out.

#107 AngryMan127 on 07.22.13 at 3:00 am

geology joe….your emotional response belies your means of employment. what man of science posts his ‘science’ anonymously?

Canadian Watchdog…70%? That I find hard to believe… We have been served a steady stream of multicultural cocktail with a twist of anti Americanism for the past 45 years.

#108 PeterfromCalgary on 07.22.13 at 3:14 am

I was evacuated by these Calgary floods. Broke the law and started pumping out my basement before the evacuation order was lifted.

Going to cost me 90K minus insurance to fix my basement but that is ok.

Police came to my door and told me to leave. Only got two feet of water in my basement and could have been watching Gilligans Island the whole time without drowning or even being uncomfortable.

I will never vote for that gay nanny state Muslim again!

#109 Wouldn't on 07.22.13 at 3:26 am

And holy cow, Dellen Millard, arrested for murder, lived in Markland Wood as well! His mom just sold the house a few weeks ago for 1.2 million

Also their fancy Bruno’s was just replaced by a freaking dollar store of all things

http://www.thestar.com/news/crime/2013/05/22/tim_bosma_hamilton_police_arrest_second_murder_suspect.html

Oooo

#110 daystar on 07.22.13 at 3:39 am

#43 Geology Joe on 07.21.13 at 8:00 pm

You insulted every scientifically trained person out there with your “Deniers” comments? – Geology Joe

Interestingly, as I psychologically profile GJ in a quest to see if this individual suffers from the inability to properly self examine or self introspect leading to an imbalance in self worth and self esteem, I find that comments like this one somehow lends to the hypothesis that Geology Joe believes himself to be a “scientifically trained person” and as such, GJ believes himself to have superior intellect within this context.

The denigration that follows GJ’s Assertions of superiority are in keeping with a cerebral narcissist’s profile. The constant belittling, berating and deflating of another in a desperate bid to inflate his esteem is evident here:

“Spoken like a true mindless politician spewing dogmatic bafflegab that they know nothing about.”

“your lack of understanding of science is breathtaking in it’s completeness”

“only an idiot would build/buy a property on a floodplain”

“Dumb comment Garth”

And yet, as I refresh my memory with the symptom’s of Narcissism:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narcissistic_personality_disorder

… I am reminded of the true fragility of this individual’s self esteem and self worth and remind myself that we are most likely dealing with a victim of an overbearing parent who likely also had an imbalance with self esteem or self worth leading to either excessive praise or excessive abuse creating the inability of the child to properly self examine or introspect himself leading to the behavior in question that we now examine in an open forum today.

Its best to scrap the labels at this point as they are not only damaging but about to be soon dated with any luck, and just cut to the chase with the solution to this man’s true problem (once we’ve gone through all the links within the link to familiarize with this genre of human behavior, fascinating subject really).

The medicine to the healing we are after is within the understanding of what equality truly is and its hard for some of us to truly grasp equality within humans because humans in this existence are anything but equal really. Physically, we are all unique and constantly going through change. We have different origins, different parents, unequal lifespans (timelines), purpose, potential… entirely different micro environments never mind the macro, different abilities to process things, different genders, races, backgrounds, looks, features, abilities, well, the list goes on. Certainly we don’t have the same opportunities, the same teachers, hardships, intelligence, gifts, and on it goes and yet… we are equal in with one common denominator and that is quite simply that we are equal in soul.

It is within this ideal and the practice of this ideal that the egalitarian finds the basis for the equality of all human rights, that the laws of this world treat all humans equally in the courts of man and beyond for within this context of being equal in soul, one finds themselves as equals to all others in the soul’s origins, timelines over the long haul unto the end… and the beginning again, equal in purpose, equal in potential, the W5 (again, over the long haul is where we see it) and can see one’s literal destiny take shape when we, as individuals, work as one with one common will, goal and master plan.

In this sense, and no one can take it away from us now, in this sense we find our true self worth and identity as children of God. A work in progress/regress throughout the lifetimes yes, but at the end of it all, as we collect our soul fragments of our lifetimes and truly understand the limits and limitlessness of our true existence, we find our true worth once and for all.

There is not one religion or system of beliefs within this universe that can find peace without equality… for to recognize and heed others as equals regardless of their state of evolution is the beginning of the end of all conflict and war brought upon and within one’s self. It is the end of all “ism’s”, racism… sexism… ageism… materialism (that’s a big one for this blog, believe you me)… etc and the beginning of a new understanding of what this world needs to end the cycles of all abuse.

With each connection we make in this universe to others and all other life, we understand more fully just who it is that we truly are and what it is that we are really worth and its priceless. Whether it is the connection of a father or mother aunt uncle nephew niece cousin brother sister and so on, it is my own hope that some of us who read this realize just how large and universal our family truly is and look beyond the various states of our individual evolution’s from infancy to elder… ultimately to what will come. We will need that inspiration and we will get it! Because we will have to choose it.

May peace and love choose us all. :)

#111 Aussie Roy on 07.22.13 at 5:57 am

“Canadians can’t afford their houses”

Imagine two cars in a race. One is the Canadian housing market and the other is the American housing market. The Canadian racing team is continually losing to the American. The Americans have developed a new type of engine, called “securitization”, which has allowed them to reach much higher speeds than the Canadians. The securitization engine uses a fuel called GSE that can only be found in the United States. The Canadians study the American design and come up with their own version of the securitization engine. Since the Canadian teams cannot use the GSE fuel, they develop their own variety called CMHC. They do this by modifying an existing lower octane fuel called BHA (Boring Housing Agency) and turn it into a much higher octane fuel using the “bulk portfolio insurance” process which uses additives like longer amortization and 100% financing.

http://www.cansofunds.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Canso-Px-The-Canadian-Housing-Market-July-2013-Revised-2.pdf

#112 Derek R on 07.22.13 at 6:59 am

Meanwhile, in Britain there are people who think it’s time something was done about porn in our homes — especially house porn!

#113 yorel on 07.22.13 at 7:20 am

“After all, extreme weather is probably just beginning.”
Gee, Garth Isn’t that what you call “recency”?

If that’s what you call several decades. — Garth

#114 craig on 07.22.13 at 7:48 am

25 Geology Joe on 07.21.13 at 6:51 pm

Oh yes, and only an idiot would build/buy a property on a floodplain

================================

How about an entire city built BELOW sea level, dumbass.

New Orleans

Protected by a broken down, dilapidated wall.

Smert

You were warned about gratuitously insulting other people with epithets such as ‘dumbass.’ You ignored it, now you’re gone. — Garth

#115 TurnerNation on 07.22.13 at 7:50 am

Things that go harrumph in the night.

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/071913-664481-unemployment-far-worse-than-official-data-official.htm

Former Bureau of Labor Statistics chief Keith Hall recently was asked about the unemployment rate, which shows 7.6% of all Americans without jobs. His answer was shocking.

“Right now (the standard unemployment rate) is misleadingly low,”.

The BLS itself puts out several “alternative” measures of unemployment. **One of them, the so-called U6 gauge, adds to ordinary unemployment those who are discouraged, part-time workers who want full-time jobs and those who are “marginally-attached” to the workforce.** [emphasis added]

As the chart above shows, the real rate of unemployment is about 14.3% — nearly two-thirds higher than when the recession began in December 2007

#116 craig on 07.22.13 at 7:59 am

There’s that weather thing again.

U.S. housing starts fall to 10-month low, weather blamed

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/us-builders-break-ground-on-fewer-homes-in-june/article13272578/

Canadian housing drops and it’s because of the over indebted stupid boomers….

#117 TurnerNation on 07.22.13 at 8:05 am

Meanwhile, in Canada, laugh/cry? Obedience Cert. woes.

Trades SCU.TO – horrible chart but yield.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/story/2013/07/21/ns-coffee-shop-union-second-cup.html

“It’s not a temporary job anymore,” he said.

“We’re seeing a lot of young workers unable to find work in their field and find themselves working in coffee shops for a period of years.”

These usually university-educated workers often realize their stop-gap employment has become more long-term and they are motivated to turn these positions into good jobs, he added.

#118 AK on 07.22.13 at 8:06 am

#81 Mark on 07.21.13 at 10:28 pm
“RE collapses and the associated deflation are usually quite positive for currencies. I expect the CAD$ will surge significantly as RE collapses and there is a lending slowdown. Remember, each loan taken out (mortgage) is an effective ‘short’ on the C$, and those will be wound down.”
——————————————————————–
The bush league loonie will never see par against the U.S. greenback.
With all the debt Canadians are carrying, I just don’t see a catalyst that will play out as such.

#119 AK on 07.22.13 at 8:16 am

#97 Donald Trump on 07.22.13 at 12:30 am
“Now remember.

You work for Gov’t.

You were in charge of Alberta Flood early warning system.

= You deserve a bonus.

Also…being Monday…the stress of a weekend is too much……so call in sick. (Use up some of your 200 annual sick days ).

By Thursday, you have done enough work to equal the amount the real world works by Monday first coffee break.

Take Friday off to prepare for stressful weekend.

Repeat this pattern till Age+IQ = 55″
——————————————————————–
Yes, It takes one to know one.

You are one of the lucky ones. Your entire family probably works for the public sector as well.
Some of us are not so lucky, and therefore have to work for a living.
Having said that, I am off to work at my “Private Sector” company job.

Have a nice day, Dude…

#120 pbrasseur on 07.22.13 at 8:17 am

Aussie Roy #112

Interesting, thanks for the link!

#121 craig on 07.22.13 at 8:28 am

DELETED

#122 Spiltbongwater on 07.22.13 at 8:37 am

I will never vote for that gay nanny state Muslim again!
#109 PeterfromCalgary on 07.22.13 at 3:14 am

Was only a matter of time before Obama got blamed for the Calgary flooding.

End of thread. — Garth

#123 frank le skank on 07.22.13 at 9:08 am

#19 Comrade-conrad on 07.21.13 at 6:38 pm
Ok Garth. What is the end play when the situation like you describes happens? People walk away from the homes Ala the 1980s when oil prices dropped? More debt? Bankruptcies? Foreclosures?

—————————-

If your house is worth less and you owe $70K upon renewal, what are the options? What happens if you don’t have 70K sitting around?

You sell it. — Garth

#124 BillyBob on 07.22.13 at 9:20 am

@ PeterFromCalgary

“I was evacuated by these Calgary floods. Broke the law and started pumping out my basement before the evacuation order was lifted.”

Actually, I doubt you were evacuated. Your neighbourhood, perhaps, was evacuated. But if YOU were evacuated, that is stating that you were given an enema, which I doubt is what you were trying to say.

(I also hate it when “lose” and “looser” are abused, but that’s another story.) ;-)

#125 Penny Henny on 07.22.13 at 9:26 am

#16 Steven on 07.21.13 at 6:20 pm
Expect institutional and real estate cultist resistance to falling prices to drag out the inevitable price decline.

First the laugh at the possibility of a collapse.
Then they stubbornly resist a collapse.
Finally they throw in the towel and admit their own greed went too far for too long and accept the unavoidable 90% plus loss on the price of real estate.
——————————————————

90%. What the heck are you smoking???

Penny Henny

#126 gladiator on 07.22.13 at 9:26 am

@43 Geology Joe:
Those who deny climate change should better enlighten themselves with some reading on it: Earth’s climate has been changing ever since this planet came into existence! The climate has been and will be changing with or without humans on it.
The real question is how much do we humans contribute to it? Here are the numbers:
1. Weight of the atmosphere: 5 * 10^18 kg (from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Earth )
2. Weight of carbon dioxide released by humans per year = 6 billion metric tons, which is 6 trillion kilograms, which is 6 * 10^12 (from: http://curiosity.discovery.com/question/carbon-dioxide-people-produce-year )
3. 6*10^12 / 5*10^18 = 0.0000012 or 0.00012%

Conclusion: humans’ activities release carbon dioxide in the volume of 0.00012% of the total weight of the atmosphere. Of course, this contributes to the global warming. The question is: how significantly so and if we reduce CO2 emissions – at what cost and with what effect? Make your own conclusions.

#127 Sisco on 07.22.13 at 9:33 am

@Geology Joe

I am also a “scientist”, and I find your logic and arguments to be somewhat troubling. In the interest of defending the integrity of the scientific community, I would like to point out that you seem to have an axe to grind on this topic, and spewing insults at Garth probably isn’t the best way to rectify the situation.

Garth’s statement in the original article was as follows: “fresh evidence climate change deniers have migrated to the lunatic fringe”. Climate change and “Global Warming” are different things, and you, as a “scientist” should know that. Not only that, Garth made no statement at all with regard to the origin of said climate change. As a geologist yourself, you should know better than anyone that the earth’s climate has changed throughout history. Those who deny this fact (deniers of climate change) are in the wrong.

I’m not going to delve into the various arguments surrounding the data you have (and haven’t) posted, since this is neither the time nor the place for that, but suffice to say that the case of anthropogenic influence on global climate change patterns is not as cut and dried as you seem to believe.

#128 Gunboat denier on 07.22.13 at 9:57 am

93 Vangrl

“…most scientists are unanimous …”

too funny!

#129 Ahead of the Curve on 07.22.13 at 9:58 am

Why this is turning into a Climate Change forum, I do not know. Climate is climate, and that it changes there is no doubt. Let’s just move on people.

The real question is, how it affects the economy and the markets so that it’s net effect is a positive one in your portfolio. End of story.

#130 Stickler on 07.22.13 at 10:03 am

“Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years.

Climate change is caused by factors that include oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), biotic processes, variations in solar radiation received by Earth, plate tectonics and volcanic eruptions, and human-induced alterations of the natural world.”

No one denies this.

Also no one on this blog can prove if humans cause changes, and if so, to what degree.

There you go, move on.

#131 julia on 07.22.13 at 10:13 am

#21 TurnerNation
Where did you see the postings about the Cityplace suicides? Did you find out any more about this?

#132 Mike on 07.22.13 at 10:16 am

#124 frank le skank on 07.22.13 at 9:08 am

#19 Comrade-conrad on 07.21.13 at 6:38 pm
Ok Garth. What is the end play when the situation like you describes happens? People walk away from the homes Ala the 1980s when oil prices dropped? More debt? Bankruptcies? Foreclosures?

—————————-

If your house is worth less and you owe $70K upon renewal, what are the options? What happens if you don’t have 70K sitting around?

You sell it. — Garth
—————————————————–
when you sell, does CMHC come after you for the difference, and if so, can you escape that debt through bankruptcy?

If you sell and can’t pay the outstanding mortgage debt, of course you will be pursued. — Garth

#133 ozy - GOLD and OIL spiking back on 07.22.13 at 10:17 am

GOLD and OIL spiking back

mortgages back to 3.09% for a 5 term fixed – should continue to drop again to 2.69% by september – was just a cat-walk move – a well-know dance by the banks, let’s raise them so we have from where to drop them again!!!! Brilliant MF.

New wars are being planned in super powers’ laboratories, middle east is going to blow UGLY, stay tuned (I mean your portofolio)

I think the kanatian housing market has legs for 2 more years – Toronto I say, not BC or QC or SK

#134 Canadian Watchdog on 07.22.13 at 10:36 am

The restaurant sector now accounts for 10.5% of the entire U.S. workforce, the highest number ever recorded since the gov't started tracking jobs in 1939. More interestingly, as this infographic shows: in 2012, $201.4 billion dollars was spent by tourists on food services, while Canadians made up 33.8% of all tourists.

A road to recovery from more tourists eating American cheeseburgers. Welcome to the new normal. 

#135 Ralph Cramdown on 07.22.13 at 10:57 am

M: when you sell, does CMHC come after you for the difference, and if so, can you escape that debt through bankruptcy?

G: If you sell and can’t pay the outstanding mortgage debt, of course you will be pursued. — Garth

To be pedantic, you can’t sell without paying off the mortgage debt. The mortgage is secured by a charge on title, and the buyer — absent rare and explicit agreement to the contrary between the buyer, the seller and the mortgage holder (i.e. bank, perhaps if the mortgage is being assumed by the buyer) — expects clear title (i.e. no charges, mortgages, lines of credit, builder liens, tax liens, lis pendens…) upon closing. That’s what the buyer is paying his lawyer for, to make sure he’s getting clear title to what he bargained for.

#136 frank le skank on 07.22.13 at 11:17 am

If your house is worth less and you owe $70K upon renewal, what are the options? What happens if you don’t have 70K sitting around?

You sell it. — Garth

——————

If you sell at a loss and had no equity, how do you pay the difference of what you owe? loan? dismemberment?

Then you should not have purchased, right? You figure it out. — Garth

#137 RandyMachoManSavage on 07.22.13 at 11:18 am

Another reason to not put all your eggs in the real estate basket – these real estate agents got caught by not using the dividend approach…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/retirement-rrsps/hewing-to-a-new-reality/article13323262/

#138 45north on 07.22.13 at 11:19 am

Bryan Berndt: Two great winter economies ago, wheat production was subsidized by credit in the USA. When the Crimean war ended in Russia, their wheat production brought back online created a surplus which brought global prices down. Because the American farmers were so heavily indebted (paying interest on interest), margins were low, so it was enough to trigger mass bankruptcy and the civil war.

“Two great winter economies ago” how bizarre

I must say that the link between the Crimean War and the American Civil War does not seem at first glance that obvious

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_War

#139 frank le skank on 07.22.13 at 11:22 am

#126 Penny Henny on 07.22.13 at 9:26 am
90%. What the heck are you smoking???
————-
He probably watched Max Shizer’s interview with Nicole Foss!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_acwahNKjNU

#140 frank le skank on 07.22.13 at 11:35 am

#137 frank le skank on 07.22.13 at 11:17 am
If you sell at a loss and had no equity, how do you pay the difference of what you owe? loan? dismemberment?

Then you should not have purchased, right? You figure it out. — Garth
———–

That’s fairly obvious and you’d think that lenders and CMHC would consider that risk. If an owner can’t afford their house due to rising interest rates and can’t afford to sell, it leaves quite a mess. I would guess that a significant amount of recent buyers fall into that category.

That was exactly the US experience. We are blindly repeating it. — Garth

#141 Mark on 07.22.13 at 11:39 am

“The bush league loonie will never see par against the U.S. greenback.
With all the debt Canadians are carrying, I just don’t see a catalyst that will play out as such.”

Not only will the “loonie” see par, it will eventually top out at $1.5 USD = $1 CAD. Just like the opposite happened in the 1990s.

And debt deflating is exactly the catalyst for such. The more debt that deflates, the higher the dollar goes.

Just watch. The idea that debt deflation hurts the loonie is complete nonsense. And “bush league”, where do you come up with such?

#142 Tony on 07.22.13 at 11:40 am

Silver Bay Realty Trust Corp. (SBY)
-NYSE

Maximum or one year down 10.82 percent. This is the best case scenario for the American real estate market. Since they bought the areas most likely to fall the least the average American home owner has done much worse over the past year.

#143 frank le skank on 07.22.13 at 11:51 am

#141 frank le skank on 07.22.13 at 11:35 am
That’s fairly obvious and you’d think that lenders and CMHC would consider that risk. If an owner can’t afford their house due to rising interest rates and can’t afford to sell, it leaves quite a mess. I would guess that a significant amount of recent buyers fall into that category.

That was exactly the US experience. We are blindly repeating it. — Garth
————————————–
I didn’t have a full understanding on the repercussions of selling at a loss and the limited options for payback.
Thanks for the clarification, makes more sense now.

#144 Bargains everywhere on 07.22.13 at 12:17 pm

Here is a thoughtful, well-written article on global warming and green energy. Sometimes things are good in theory but just don’t work in the real world. It doesn’t mean that green research shouldn’t continue but our current practices aren’t working so well.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/politicians-go-cold-as-global-warming-debate-loses-spark/story-fnb64oi6-1226683380244

#145 Canadian Watchdog on 07.22.13 at 12:17 pm

We may not have presale housing data for other major cities and provinces, but we do have investment in new housing construction courtesy of StatsCan.

Charts

Ontario

Alberta

British Columbia

Quebec

Saskatchewan

Manitoba

More specifically regarding GTA condo construction: in a recent blog post, RealNet posted a chart showing condo starts according to the year of project opening, and noting:

"So, of all the units that started construction in 2012, 36% were in projects that opened for sales in 2010 and another 55% were in projects that opened in 2011. As for those that have started construction so far this year [2013] 45% opened in 2011 and 53% were in projects that opened for sales in 2012."

This is troubling news, because what it really implies is that there is a massive delay in starts (and completions), yet even worse, 45% of 2011 presale owners (the bulk of GTA presales) have another few years of waiting to do before their negative equity condos are ready for a mortgage.

I highly doubt it will even get as far as fulfilling a mortgage before speculators begin throwing in the towel by defaulting on their presale agreements or trying to weasel out with a lawsuit, leaving developers stranded with more shadow inventory to sell into an already shrinking resale market.

#146 walltiger on 07.22.13 at 12:18 pm

Garth: the comment about “deniers” being on the lunatic fringe was gratuitous. Could the flooding possibly have anything to do with a very heavy series of snowfalls which were melting at the time the heavy rains occurred? Perhaps you should stick to what you know best – real estate values – and leave the “denier” bashing to the leftards. All the best.

Yeah, of course. There was a ton of snow melting in Toronto three weeks ago, too. — Garth

Garth, Brilliant!

#147 arit on 07.22.13 at 12:24 pm

Hello Good Morning,
A question for all experts,

Assuming we wanted to ‘buy’ a house in Richmond BC in 2016, but were afraid of flooding.
A brand new barge made of aluminum and plastic barrels costs 15-20K.
A nice prefabricated house, like the ones from http://www.bluhomes.com/ goes for 200-300K.

Can I buy land, lay the barge on the ground, order a house and put it on the barge?
Then when the flooding comes, the whole thing will rise (assume some anchoring system in way of pile drived posts), and return safely to the bottom after the flood passes?

Is there any bylaw forbidding that?

Thanks

arit

#148 Chickenlittle on 07.22.13 at 1:00 pm

Evangeline:

Your ark development idea is great! Let’s go in on that one together. We’ll get Jake Gyllenhall and John Cusack to help out.
We should also get moving on the global fry that will happen in about 5 billion years when the sun turns into a red giant and engulfs the earth.

ACT NOW before it is too late…

#149 Old Man on 07.22.13 at 1:00 pm

#141 frank le shank – this was all a trap engineered by Caesar with his puppets to win an election by adjusting the mortgage formula with low interest rates to fuel the GDP. This sucked the herd into buying homes they could not afford, and gave the Reform/Alliance cabal bragging rights to hoop the public by grandstanding with propaganda how well the economy was doing under a Caesar government.

This was the biggest con I have ever seen in my life to win an election called bait and switch. Now after they hooped a majority what happened? Like a magic trick things changed with warnings about the economy, and adjustments needed to be made, and such was done. So, you all who will be going underwater have been sacrificed for a political agenda, as they cared not, as control over the message means all.

#150 Smoking Man on 07.22.13 at 1:02 pm

I used to be a climate change denier

Let’s face it, during the ice age we had 1/2 a mile of snow and ice over Toronto. It’s stared melting. No humans around.

I used to think carbon, man made……. Ba hahaha..

But now the my son is selling solar pannels, Healy subsidized by govt…..

Still know man made Carbon makes earth warmer is bull, I will never say it publicly….

#151 Rational Optimist on 07.22.13 at 1:35 pm

58 Gary M on 07.21.13 at 8:57 pm

“The reality is that urban flooding is mostly a result of bad development practices and poor watershed management.”

Thanks for being a voice of reason, Gary. I personally have no idea about whether or how bad climate change has occuring, and the little scientific education I have acquired for myself suggests that experts in relevant fields don’t yet, either.

We do know for a fact that stormwater management in large urban centres is inadequate. We could do a lot better, and we could start now. Torontonians are right now remembering several flooding events that have happened over the past few weeks. But I think they’ve largely forgotten the ones that happened last year- remember that Union station flooded very severely on a Friday afternoon in June last year, caused by rain, shutting down a lot of the subway system. Another rainfall in July caused flash flooding and closed streets.

These will happen more often as more farmland and forested or semi-forested areas are consumed by impermeable parking surfaces, housing developments, and roads. We could go a long way towards managing this increasing risk if municipalities required all new surface parking to be made of permeable surface, levied stormwater fees and offered rebates to property owners who did likewise and diverted water from storm drains as much as possible. Green spaces should be mandated in new development, and populated with native species good at preventing erosion.

I’m not terribly confident the right things will be done soon, since the issue gets a lot of attention a few days after an urban flooding event, and not much longer.

#152 happity on 07.22.13 at 1:36 pm

No one denies climate changes, but who believes a weather forecast past 5 days?

Why is it the climate changers (past defunct religion was global warming) never get past the earth’s atmosphere?

It’s like a flat lander who hasn’t figured out the sun and moon change the climate, every day, each season, etc.

FYI, CO2 is now being proven to be a cooler, not a warmer, but wait no maybe just call it a changer because then it can be blamed for change.

#153 frank le skank on 07.22.13 at 1:38 pm

#150 Old Man on 07.22.13 at 1:00 pm
It will be interesting to see how many will be in a situation where they can’t afford to make payments and also can’t afford to sell.

#154 DonDWest on 07.22.13 at 1:39 pm

Ah, the irony!

The so called pro-capitalists Albertans are asking for government aid to bail them out of a flood! Notice how they’re only capitalists when life is going fine, but the moment life takes a turn, you can hear the bloody cries for socialism in the background.

#155 The Climate Change Real Estate Boom Is Coming on 07.22.13 at 1:58 pm

Before he passed away, British futurist James Martin predicted a massive real estate boom in fortified “Climate Change Cities,” where the global elite go to escape the ravages of rising sea levels and unstable weather patterns.

http://www.fastcoexist.com/1682519/the-climate-change-real-estate-boom-is-coming

#156 Old Man on 07.22.13 at 2:01 pm

I blame my day of driving madness on climate change, as effects all the old women driving a car. It was bad enough being behind a new Cadillac for a few miles with some old lady who could not drive, and turned into my shopping centre, and gave her the horn, as she was nuts. I was broke and needed a banking parking spot, so saw one, and backed up to allow her to exist, but she stood firm with lots of room to get out, but not enough for her, so backed up, and went around her, and she shook her head and gave me the finger, and someone came up from the other side to steal my spot. I trolled around to find something else, and found one, and lucky me there was nobody in the bank, so all was well. I say all these older women who are driving cars need to be tested, as they have bad driving habits and the roads are not safe anymore.

#157 smartalox on 07.22.13 at 2:13 pm

@Arit #148:
An aluminium barge might not be the best choice. Aluminium exposed to soil may be subject to corrosion, or unpredictable electrical properties.

Consider instead a floating caisson made of concrete, such as that used for floating docks or floating bridge construction. It’s more inert, weather resistant, and closer to existing construction methods (concrete slab on grade) and more likely to pass building inspection.

#158 AK on 07.22.13 at 2:21 pm

#142 Mark on 07.22.13 at 11:39 am

“Just watch. The idea that debt deflation hurts the loonie is complete nonsense. And “bush league”, where do you come up with such?”
====================================
LOL Mark. Actually, the loonie bottomed out @ $1.66 CDN for $1.00 USD in the fall of 2001, and it’s heading that way again.

Canada has created a net of 400 jobs in 2013. Without any growth in wages and the looming crash in the Canadian RE market, I don’t see how Canada’s debt will start deflating.

Anyway, I am sure you and I will debate this further in RFD.

Later Bud.

#159 Bargains everywhere on 07.22.13 at 2:25 pm

#158 Old Man on 07.22.13 at 2:01 pm

Bwahahahahahahaha!

Old men should not be driving. They are a menace on the road.

#160 Climate CHnage Denier on 07.22.13 at 2:44 pm

Extreme weather leads the news most days, fresh evidence climate change deniers have migrated to the lunatic fringe. And nowhere are people more immediately impacted than with their real estate.
————————————–
Man made climate change is media make believe.

Climate change is happening but there’s nothing us little people can do about it unless anyone knows how to turn the sun down…

#161 Mike T. on 07.22.13 at 2:47 pm

Just guessing here, but maybe climate change is linked the the gigantic fireball in the sky?

This object is often referenced as the sun by humans.

The same humans that many moons ago believed that, upon seeing the ROUND sun and the ROUND moon in the sky, decided the Earth they lived on was flat?

We have only ever been mostly wrong, so I have assumed that the global warming carbon thingy was just another scam to bring in more taxes and such.

Would be par for the course.

Of course I am aware of the horrors we commit each day by simply living our day to day lives – so not a denier.

This is an example of something horrible that most folks don’t think about….

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGDZiWwF_V0

#162 Soylent Green is People on 07.22.13 at 2:48 pm

I used to be a climate denier until I watched the below:

Noam Chomsky:
How Climate Change Became a ‘Liberal Hoax’
http://youtu.be/FJUA4cm0Rck

……………………

Chris Hedges on Climate Change
2 min. long
http://youtu.be/cMhRv5QnWLk

……………………

OTTAWA — While it has aggressively slammed environmental groups for using foreign dollars to finance a small portion of their budgets, Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government is being tight-lipped about revelations climate change skeptics in Canada are getting money from an American think-tank with corporate funding.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/technology/Feds+discreet+about+foreign+funding+climate+skeptics/6290316/story.html

……………………………..

Insurance Companies: Trust Us, Global Warming Is Real

Cynthia McHale, the insurance program director at Ceres, issued a more unequivocal statement: “Our climate is changing, human activity is helping to drive the change, and the costs of these extreme weather events are going to keep ballooning unless we break through our political paralysis, and bring down emissions that are warming our planet. If we continue on this path, extreme weather is certain to cause more homes and businesses to be uninsurable in the private insurance market, leaving the costs to taxpayers or individuals.”

Last year saw a record 14 natural disasters causing more than $1 billion in damage each.

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-03-04/news/31120659_1_climate-change-extreme-weather-insurance-industry

….

#163 jess on 07.22.13 at 2:48 pm

•Perspective
Environmental Science
Water in the Balance
James S. Famiglietti1,2,3, Matthew Rodell4

NASA Satellites Reveal East Texas Is Running Out of GroundwaterVNASA Satellites Reveal East Texas Is Running Out of Groundwater

Study: Texas Lost Enough Water in the 2011 Drought to Fill Lake Mead Nearly Twice Over
Circle of Blue
July 11, 2013

Satellites Identify Hotspots for Drought in Coming Years
A new map produced by NASA instruments pinpoints the need to monitor groundwater levels before aquifers run dry in the southern U.S.

Read more: Satellites Identify Hotspots for Drought in Coming Years – Popular Mechanics
Follow us: @PopMech on Twitter | popularmechanics on Facebook
Visit us at PopularMechanics.com

The two GRACE satellites were launched in 2002 with the goal of mapping Earth’s gravity field, which varies from place to place and over time. As the satellites follow each other around Earth orbit, navigating its lumpy magnetic field, they’re constantly measuring their distance from one another. If the leading satellite moves through an area of high gravity, it gets pulled farther from the following satellite; that change in distance can be used to measure the gravity anomaly. As water gets redistributed all over the globe, it changes the distribution of mass and therefore the distribution of gravity around the planet, meaning GRACE can pick up on changes in ocean currents, runoff, snowmelt, aquifer levels and more. ”

Read more: Satellites Identify Hotspots for Drought in Coming Years – PopularMechanics.com

==================
Survivor Bias on the Gridiron
Freakonomics
09/17/2009 | 11:00 am
http://www.freakonomics.com/2009/09/17/survivor-bias-on-the-gridiron/

#164 Post Haste on 07.22.13 at 2:51 pm

I can easily put this climate change nonsense to rest – the polar ice caps have imprinted the history of the world’s weather by noting in layers of frozen ice what the weather was way before man…and guess what … there was extreme weather without us..it’s all part of evolution. We may be witnessing the actual changes that will seriously impact man’s very existance in the decades ahead.

Carbon Tax – just another nonsense business money get rich scheme…

#165 jess on 07.22.13 at 2:53 pm

AK

Canada has created a net of 400 jobs in 2013.?
check out loss /gains per minute including g8 etc

thought you might be interested in this:

16 July 2013

FactCheck: is Australia losing one manufacturing job every 19 minutes?
By Fabrizio Carmignani, Griffith University

Under this [Labor] government we’ve seen one manufacturing job lost every 19 minutes.” – Opposition industry spokeswoman Sophie …
http://theconversation.com/search?q=jobs+per+minute

#166 Climate Change Denier on 07.22.13 at 2:53 pm

Typical attack- claiming because one is not a scientist (although most scientists are unanimous that climate change is speeding up do to human activity), one does not have access to facts. But I guess if you give yourself the name Geology Joe you have more credibility?! Ha

Narrow minded right wingers in abundance on this thread- noted!
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I despair for the future of our species – there’s too many idiots out there like Vangrrl who take what they see on TV and in the paper as gospel.

Scientists are certainly not unanimous about climate change being man made… and Al Gore is not a scientist btw.

It’s just another scam designed to tax the working people and people like you who cannot think critically or independently without input from the TV will make it a lot easier for the powers that be to achieve it.

#167 Old Man on 07.22.13 at 3:09 pm

#161 Bargains everywhere – I will have you know that in my youth was driving in stock drag races with a 1964 Pontiac custom sport with a 327/400 under the hood; won a few and lost a few, as was a great driver, but had the gals waiting on the line. Hey was my dad’s car, but never told him :) I am sure he knew as bought the car for me to hoop the babes in life, as a family car, but never said a word to my mom. My dad set me up in life with a nice car; need I say more.

#168 Cow Man on 07.22.13 at 3:12 pm

# 58 Gary
I support your concern with urban planning resulting in excessive flooding. About a decade ago, our Regional Municipality decided to go to Naturalization for storm water management. Instead of underground storm sewers that move water quickly and efficiently, they chose storm water management ponds and “naturalized” water channels. These natural areas have now silted in and willows and other scrub species are impeding water flow. Sometimes hugging a tree doesn’t help the environment.

#169 Mark on 07.22.13 at 3:16 pm

“Without any growth in wages and the looming crash in the Canadian RE market, I don’t see how Canada’s debt will start deflating.”

That’s exactly how you get debt deflation… No growth in wages drives it. Just like in the USA.

CAD/USD bottoming in 2000-2001 was the result of the commodities sector being in a depression. You know, $20/barrel oil, $300/ounce gold, uranium and potash that barely covered the costs of getting it out of the ground, etc. There’s no evidence of that repeating itself this time around.

#170 tim battoner on 07.22.13 at 3:46 pm

How to earn an extra $15,000 when you sell

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/agents-beauty-boosts-home-sales-100000427.html

#171 EB on 07.22.13 at 4:16 pm

#168 – Climate Change Denier
“Scientists are certainly not unanimous about climate change being man made… ”

They certainly aren’t. Trying to get them all into the buffet room at the same time is a challenge, never mind getting consensus on a complex issue like this.

However, if you’d care to examine the official positions of dozens of professional scientific organizations, you will find the vast preponderance of them acknowledge the likelihood of human-driven climate change being a factor in addition to the natural changes. Here is a link to a list – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change

There is indeed a well-funded effort to obfuscate the real science here, and it’s not on the part of climatologists driving around in Porsche’s.

#172 Old Man on 07.22.13 at 4:31 pm

Now this picture at the top reminds me going home that was a 3 hour drive from TO. My family dog was a small mutt that was a cross between a beagle and a doberman. This large german shepherd came into the backyard to challenge territory, and my dog did not like this at all, so they matched off in the backyard about 30 feet away. I grabbed a broom and took the head off for a pole, as my family dog was showing her teeth flat on the ground approaching like a wolf step by step.

This was going to become a dog fight and was ready to step in with a pole stick as my family dog weighed about 20 lbs. going against a much larger dog. I need this not, so here is what happened. The german shepherd backed down, and my dog jumped it and bit his ass, and he ran away.

#173 TEMPLE on 07.22.13 at 4:34 pm

#168 Climate Change Denier on 07.22.13 at 2:53 pm

I despair for the future of our species – there’s too many idiots out there like Vangrrl who take what they see on TV and in the paper as gospel.

That is a really trashy response.

Scientists are certainly not unanimous about climate change being man made

Actually, scientists pretty much are. There are a few outliers- or, I should say outliars- who are willing to prostitute their degrees/opinions for money, but they are becoming more rare.

You and all the other Tinfoil Hatters are totally wrong about climate change. It’s happening and ignorance is no shield. Go and find some credible research (i.e., not neocon-funded propaganda put out by fake climatologists) then come back and we can try and discuss it in a civilized way.

TEMPLE

#174 Evangeline on 07.22.13 at 4:41 pm

#149

Chickenlittle, I think we’d better keep the ark condo idea hush-hush if we don’t wanna see algore pre-selling units.

#175 Donald Trump on 07.22.13 at 4:49 pm

Climate Change ?

ROTFLMAO

==================================

Keep An Eye On Gorbachev

http://rense.com/general12/gobie.htm

QUOTE

Gorbachev’s blueprint for the future is manipulating the world’s people into accepting a one world government under the pretense of saving the environment.

He has created a global Foundation called Green Cross which has as it’s magna carta ” The Earth Charter” which he hopes will rival the Ten Commandments. He is helping to initiate a complete restructuring of our economy,our political system and also our religious views. He has also been instumental in the scaling back of our armed forces while at the same time increasing the presence of foreign troops on our soil.

Gorbachev, Maurice strong and Al Gore are referred to as “The Three Musketeers” of the environmental movement. It appears that the environmental situation is being used along with instilling the fear of biological warfare in order to further the one world agenda. Gorbachev states ” The environmental crisis is the cornerstone for the New World Order” Maurice strong ( U.N. environmental leader ) was quoted as saying, ” Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?” James Garrison ( President of the Gorbachev Foundation ) says ” we are going to end up with world government. It’s inevitable… There’s going to be conflict, coercion and consensus. That’s all part of what will be required as we give birth to the first global civilization.”

etc.

==================================

Suckers….

#176 Future Expatriate on 07.22.13 at 4:53 pm

Gives the expression “crazy like a fox” an entirely opposite meaning….

Hey, must be “Foxy”, the Fox “News” fox!

#177 Old Man on 07.22.13 at 5:04 pm

#177 Donald Trump – who is this man called Maurice Strong as have never heard of him before, so learn something everyday in life. I must check this guy out, as need to be educated.

#178 Vangrrl on 07.22.13 at 5:16 pm

#129 Gun Boat Denier and #168 Climate Change Denier
Since I’m guessing you’re the same person… I found your attack on me especially amusing since I’ve never owned a tv and when I do watch shows online I generally stick to Mad Men or Breaking Bad dor entertainment. As for reading, my bookshelf includes Suzuki, Quammen, Diamond, Chomsky, among others. I inform myself, so the idiot tag is hardly fair :)
#175 Temple: Thanks!

#179 jess on 07.22.13 at 5:40 pm

mark …i would say the world seem to have trust issues for that period of time you mentioned. and don’t forget about the crap with the savings and loans frauds leading up to

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_corporate_collapses_and_scandals

Carrian Group Real estate Accounting fraud. An auditor was murdered, an adviser committed suicide. At that time it was The largest collapse in Hong Kong history.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_corporate_collapses_and_scandals

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4399336.stm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_Credit_and_Commerce_International

http://visar.csustan.edu/aaba/PINSTRIPEMAFIA.pdf

http://www.sfo.gov.uk/our-work/our-cases/historic-cases/the-guinness-case.aspx

#180 Old Man on 07.22.13 at 6:23 pm

I laugh at those who say the young people are moving to the west of Canada, and it pains my heart, as there are no jobs in the Maritime Provinces. Those in the East there are great careers that can be had so look around to stay where you are, and fight to make a living where you live, and move not, so wakeup and fight back. In New Glasgow for example is a company that owns 421 movie screens in Canada, as they are in the movie business, and there is tons of companies in the Maritimes that need employees.

#181 Climate Change Denier on 07.22.13 at 6:33 pm

However, if you’d care to examine the official positions of dozens of professional scientific organizations, you will find the vast preponderance of them acknowledge the likelihood of human-driven climate change being a factor in addition to the natural changes. Here is a link to a list – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change

There is indeed a well-funded effort to obfuscate the real science here, and it’s not on the part of climatologists driving around in Porsche’s
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I also don’t get “facts” from Wikipedia mate…

Follow the money in the scientific “organisations” that you quote will all likely have connections to a small group of elitist individuals whom all have a great deal to gain form a carbon tax scheme…

By the way, there’s no need to obfuscate us with the preponderance of your intelligence by using big fancy book learnin’ words… however, it seems appropriate for you lot – baffle them with bullshit and they’ll believe you.

#182 Climate Change Denier on 07.22.13 at 6:38 pm

#129 Gun Boat Denier and #168 Climate Change Denier
Since I’m guessing you’re the same person… I found your attack on me especially amusing since I’ve never owned a tv and when I do watch shows online I generally stick to Mad Men or Breaking Bad dor entertainment. As for reading, my bookshelf includes Suzuki, Quammen, Diamond, Chomsky, among others. I inform myself, so the idiot tag is hardly fair :)
#175 Temple: Thanks!
———————————
Nope… two different people. When you spout useless crap on a comments section, expect more than one person to call you out on it.

You have Suzuki on your bookshelf? I rest my case…

#183 Climate Change Denier on 07.22.13 at 6:43 pm

You and all the other Tinfoil Hatters are totally wrong about climate change. It’s happening and ignorance is no shield. Go and find some credible research (i.e., not neocon-funded propaganda put out by fake climatologists) then come back and we can try and discuss it in a civilized way.
—————————————
TEMPLE

Yes it’s happening, but I’m not so caught up in my own importance to think that the flea on the elephant’s arse that is the human species has the power to outweigh what has been happening in our solar system and galaxy for millions, if not billions of years.

FFS we are insignificant to the longevity of life in this universe (some people like you with your ready made, packaged thoughts are less significant than others of course).

Climate change IS occurring but give your ego a rest – it ain’t you that’s causing it chum…

#184 TurnerNation on 07.22.13 at 6:47 pm

From the discussion I’m following, two other
jumpers from condo balconies nearby – in June and July – at 21 Iceboat Terr. and 151 Dan Leckie Way, Toronto. And someone else reported jumpers at Pinnacle and Maple Leaf Square condos. Dates unknown.

What is going on? Must be brutal for residents and EMS coming across these.

The doomers might say “Agenda 21″ has concentrated people into cities where the only way out is jumping. Throwing themselves against the wire.

#185 Unpoovvio on 07.22.13 at 7:22 pm

#21 TurnerNation

Not surprised. Even living among a concentrated population downtown can feel far lonelier than a deathly quiet suburb. I guess being around so many people you don’t interact with in a culture where people don’t normally acknowledge strangers or someone they run across regularly heightens the feeling of loneliness.

Very difficult to acquire friendships, people are polite but unfriendly/unsocial, and once you do develop a friendship/acquaintanceship (being the average relationship downtown) after a year or two or three they move out of the city/country or get married and move far into the burbs and when you bump into each other a couple times a year there’s the empty “let’s do coffee” gesture.

#186 Siva on 07.22.13 at 7:48 pm

If you sell and can’t pay the outstanding mortgage debt, of course you will be pursued. — Garth

Then why pay CMHC premium?

The insurance does not insure you. — Garth

#187 s11 on 07.22.13 at 8:04 pm

@Garth response to 103

I mean for July so far not for the entire year of 2013

#188 Snowboid on 07.22.13 at 8:16 pm

#104 Julie on 07.22.13 at 1:30 am…

The stats used in your link were compiled by a govt agency as well – didn’t you check?

1. Obviously 6632 seems low, but 1 million also seems high!

2. We only average about 7000 miles a year, but we do stop in many towns – so far only about 12 states (Mar-Apr-May 2013).

We have seen evidence of an improving economy in all of these areas.

What states did you travel in?

#189 Siva on 07.22.13 at 8:40 pm

The insurance does not insure you. — Garth

So borrowers take insurance and pay premium to protect banks still banks go after borrowers if they go under. Scary! Reminds me of this scene from Oscar (at 0.27). I didn’t understand at that time but now I do.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SsJvLKLIgKg&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DSsJvLKLIgKg

#190 TroposphericTempest on 07.23.13 at 8:23 pm

I am a scientist.

Climate change has always happened and always will, driven by a range of powerful natural forces.

CO2 is a greenhouse gas

So that takes the cheap shot ‘denier’ shot off the table and I’ll make a few rational points:

We don’t know what the effectof C02 will be. We also don’t know what the natural climate drivers are going to do in the future – but we do know they are very powerful. The climate models cannot incorporate the powerful natural climate drivers so cannot tell us what the future really holds.

Bjorn Lomborg’s notion that adaptation is more cost effective that trying to affect any drivers resulting from human activity at great economic cost when we can do nothing about the natural drivers (and they’re not going anywhere).

Garth, you’re a really sharp, but the mistake you’re making is confusing weather events with climate. Extreme weather events are not new and there are certainly not increasing (now insurance companies are hit harder because of inflation and the reality there are way more of us than there used to be, covering way more land with increasingly more costly buildings and houses – something everyone here gets! )