Canadians

Canadians

What a lead-up to C-Day!

Blackberry misses earnings and sales targets, reloads and blows its foot off. Stock tumbles 25%. Barrick and Kinross are slammed by plunging gold. Their corporate debt tumbles to junk bond status. Retailer Rona punts a thousand workers as it darkens 11 mega-stores in key locations. As Alberta struggles back from billions in flood damage, Obama all but kills the Keystone Pipeline. In BC the Libs campaign and win on a ‘debt free’ platform, then table a budget increasing the debt by $14 billion. And mortgage rates increase. Twice.

Then there’s the economy. It seriously needs the Phillips Lady. Growth in April almost wasn’t – up 0.1%, which is an annual rate of barely more than 1%. Slowdowns in construction, production, oil and gas – as CIBC eggheads put it, “the second straight month of deceleration.” Growth for the quarter that ends just before Canada Day will be well less than 2%, and we have not yet seen the impact of the Alberta floods or tumbling commodity values.

Says BMO economist Doug Porter: “We suspect that this nasty combo could cut June GDP by as much as 0.5 percentage points.” That means Q2 growth for the economy could be just 1.5%. For the entire year, Porter is guessing we might achieve 1.6%.

Let’s put this in context. As gold collapsed in recent days, this pathetic blog was overrun by America-haters who want the US$ to crash so they don’t look like such idiots for having all those nuggets, coins and bars buried among the azaleas. They made a big smelly deal of the most recent revision of US GDP numbers from 2.4% to 1.8%, suggesting we all need to hoard Starkist and Huggies.

Hmmm. This is how TD Economics reads it: “We can finally say that this is an exciting time for the U.S. economy. Buoyed by improving balance sheets, consumers have a newfound sense of optimism. In spite of tax hikes, they have increased their spending. Home prices are rising across the country and housing construction has followed suit. After several years of deleveraging and restraint, private demand is on the cusp of shifting into a higher gear. The improvement in economic prospects has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may finally be ready to ease off the monetary pedal.”

As much as I think the overfed economists at BMO, CIBC and TD wear their party panties too often, they’re absolutely right about the growing chasm between the Canadian and American conditions. It’s something to mull over as we blow each other up this festive weekend.

You can’t change the economy, of course, but you sure can alter your life within in. A good place to start is with real estate, which is at considerable downside risk these days. The impact of higher mortgage rates should not – repeat, not – be underestimated. Already applications for new home loans were crashing, and the events of June pretty much finished demand off.

Five-year fixed mortgages at the banks have traveled from 2.89% to 3.49% – equivalent to more than a half-point goosing by the Bank of Canada – while those 10-year loans at 3.69% (a screaming deal) are now pushing 4.3%. That may not sound like a nuke-level increase, but it comes just months after 30-year mortgages were trashed and CHMC insurance removed from any property listed over a million. This is like Bruce Willis being stabbed, kneed, shot and then dragged behind a bus. So much for a soft landing.

The smartest among us will learn a few things from the past few weeks. Central banks can do squat, and interest rates still rise. Good assets (like real estate investment trusts and preferred shares) are worth buying when they temporarily tank. Diversification works. ETFs are more predictable than a few stocks, for example, while having too much exposure to Canada is dumb. People who confuse gambling with investing get creamed.

The rest of this year will be a memorable ride. Get ready. Smug won’t help you.

231 comments ↓

#1 Wilson on 06.28.13 at 6:28 pm

Thank you, Garth

Happy Canada day everyone !!!!!

#2 Hard or Soft on 06.28.13 at 6:38 pm

Hey Garth, are you able to tell us what percentage of RE decline we can expect this year and the next? Or the average decline in the next few years in the Greater Vancouver area?

#3 Hard or Soft on 06.28.13 at 6:38 pm

First for the first time.

#4 Smoking Man on 06.28.13 at 6:39 pm

DELETED

#5 Ps on 06.28.13 at 6:40 pm

First for the first time. Wasn’t expecting you to post so soon.

#6 Soft or hard landing on 06.28.13 at 6:42 pm

How much of a deflation of RE do you see in the next few years in the Greater Vancouver Area?

#7 TurnerNation on 06.28.13 at 6:43 pm

I rarely walk through the Eaton Centre, but today I donned a ballistic vest and waded through. Every other store has a 40, 50, 60% off sign on display! And It’s not even back-to-school sale time.

#8 Sebee on 06.28.13 at 6:43 pm

Blow each other…up?

#9 Regular Visitor on 06.28.13 at 6:44 pm

Went to the blue bank today for a few minor things (cash etc) and the teller asked if we were looking to purchase a house (sold in 2010 after reading Garth’s books and using our own brains..) and I said no. She says that’s too bad as they have some great rates right now that I should lock in quickly. Because I make my financial and home buying decisions based on the teller’s advice…. kinda goes to show how desperate they are getting?

#10 Devore on 06.28.13 at 6:47 pm

In BC the Libs campaign and win on a ‘debt free’ platform, then table a budget increasing the debt by $14 billion.

Not only is it debt free (by way of increasing debt) but it is also balanced (by way of asset sales). Good time to hand out some raises.

#11 Canadian on 06.28.13 at 6:49 pm

Garth do you think it’s a good idea to push a personal portfolio’s US ETF’s to a little higher percentage and reduce Canada equivalently?

#12 Doug in London on 06.28.13 at 6:51 pm

Well, that settles it once and for all. As many commenters have said in the past it really IS different here in Canada!

First post? Probably not.

#13 Derek R on 06.28.13 at 6:52 pm

But I do smug so well!

#14 Gold Forever on 06.28.13 at 6:54 pm

First to declare: gold bottom!

#15 Randy on 06.28.13 at 6:54 pm

I can’t see the whole sign in your pic Garth…Did she specify what kind of sex trick ?

Something to do with friction tape — Garth

#16 Bob Copeland on 06.28.13 at 6:55 pm

I’m so torn. I did not believe you, thought you were nuts saying gold was going down. My delay in believing you cost me $100 bucks an ounce.
Well now I’m thinking this guy knows nothing about the real numbers behind the phony numbers the US government puts out. He needs to dig a little deeper. But then I remember your Canadian, why would you?
What about the cost of Obamacare? I’m talking about the real cost of less hours and not hiring. What about the millions of unemployed people not counted? What about the rising mtg rates? The 2.5 million homes held back by the banks? The rising interest on the debt? The real inflation not counted such as food? The growing number of Americans on food stamps? The fast growing number of Americans on disability?
I know what happens in America makes it twice as bad in Canada.
We’re in a hidden depression. Put 49 million people in a line at soup kitchens and we would see it. We’re temporally stalling it but its coming…

#17 CalgaryGuy on 06.28.13 at 6:56 pm

You mentioned that property values typically drop after a major flood. Can you suggest what the Calgary real estate market will look like by the end of the year?

Nope. — Garth

#18 JimH on 06.28.13 at 6:56 pm

“The rest of this year will be a memorable ride. Get ready. ”

Excellent advice as usual!

The nimble and adaptable traders, those who refrain from trying to tell the markets what to do and put their personal bias and convictions on the back burner and stick to a disciplined trading plan and system will prevail.

The road ahead in the 3rd and 4th quarters looks rocky and daunting all the way around, and the landscape looks a tad unfamiliar compared to the last 5 years!

On both sides of any trade, be careful what you’re wishing for!

#19 Michael Clewley on 06.28.13 at 6:56 pm

Will RIM be ok?

#20 raisemyrent on 06.28.13 at 7:02 pm

I guess everyone is celebrating Canada Day already. Don’t forget to put it all on your credit card!

New buildings in Vancouver City Centre have resorted to spammy practices on their websites; you can browse all the features, renderings, and floor plans, but to find out how much they sell for, you need to fill out a form. They used to sell-out buildings in 2 hours from a shack on the sidewalk; now, sales centres lease commercial units and have regular hours.
I’ve heard from a few people that, while acknowledging that housing prices have indeed come down, this is the time to get into Vancouver Real Estate… “before it goes up again”

#21 waiting on 06.28.13 at 7:08 pm

You’re early today. Good post, in a nutshell as usual making it easier for us all to understand the big picture.
Happy Canada Day – still a good place to be!

#22 Ken R on 06.28.13 at 7:10 pm

Well those of us that have taken your advice can go fishing this weekend without worry- thanks Garth.

#23 retired Boomer - WI on 06.28.13 at 7:14 pm

No comments? Strange…. and I WILL NOT say the “customary thing.”

Well US markets end the week….weak. Just when I was getting back to the high water of a few weeks ago. No matter, life goes on.

Holiday Weekend here and north of the 49th. Best wishes for a safe & enjoyable holiday.

#24 Ben on 06.28.13 at 7:15 pm

Garth, you mentioned several times your preference of ETFs over single stocks. Would it be reasonable to assume, from your perspective, that a well diversified portfolio of stocks — not just a few stocks — could perform better than ETFs, while keeping the risk level low? If so, how many stocks, how many different industries would you target for a single portfolio?

All of them. — Garth

#25 Rental Lover on 06.28.13 at 7:17 pm

Hi Garth!
I pretty we’ll my retirement account in banks stocks,TD,BNS,RY and some BMO Common Stock and I do the DRIP? Am I crazy?

#26 Uwinsome on 06.28.13 at 7:20 pm

Happy FIRSSSTTTTT of July

#27 Canadians — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate | The Affluent Boomer on 06.28.13 at 7:26 pm

[…] via Canadians — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate. […]

#28 LH on 06.28.13 at 7:26 pm

Ichiban!?

#29 Godth on 06.28.13 at 7:27 pm

“Smug won’t help you.”

don’t let it stop you though.

It won’t. — Garth

#30 Chickenlittle on 06.28.13 at 7:27 pm

Have a nice weekend everyone. Take a break, Garth and tie one on!
Happy Canada day!

#31 Nemesis on 06.28.13 at 7:29 pm

“People who confuse gambling with investing get creamed.” – Hon. GT

Somehow, I just know there’s a JollyeGoode SmokingMan joke in there somewhere. But I suspect it’s rather too early in this evening’s BroadcastSchedule to flesh it out.

Something to do with liqueurs. So to speak.

#32 vrs on 06.28.13 at 7:29 pm

Hey genius, Barrick was up over 6% TODAY… what your portfolio returns in a year… lol!

Did you read this? — Garth

#33 Mr. White Rock on 06.28.13 at 7:30 pm

Good Post! For the 10,000 time “It will not end well if you ignore good advice!”

I know most will read this but few will really understand enough to actually do it.

#34 Nemesis on 06.28.13 at 7:35 pm

Yikes! I nearly forgot the obligatory CanadaDay tribute to the ScarletCavalry of HighRiver…

http://youtu.be/2jPiWKodOZ4

#35 ApplePi on 06.28.13 at 7:35 pm

Appl isn’t doing well either, despite record earnings.

#36 Post Haste on 06.28.13 at 7:36 pm

Last week a mid-sized Investment firm in Toronto handed out 26 pink slips – word is that a number of Firms in the downtown core are planning some major cuts (unconfirmed) but those in the know seem to agree that more cuts are coming. With all the talk of the US ready to spring forward – why such actions –

In my neighbourhood – Rona which is 1/2 km from Home Depot, which is down the street from a recently opened Lowe’s. Home Hardware which has been in town for years generates towards the loyal customers. I don’t know if it’s a sign of a slowing economy but that of over saturation and Rona does a very poor job of enticing people. There is only so much particle board one can buy!

Just came back from the 400 and Major Mackenzie area – what gives – dozens of newly build homes in the $800K range and what appears to be many more ready to spring up right behind them. I just can’t see any logic to anything anymore –

Awesome job G – Happy Canada my fellow Canadians – but sadly I see more people waving flags from other countries during the World Cup in this city then our own flag – wave another countries flag here – then we should buy you a one way ticket so you can go back and wave it all you want there – Be a proud Canadian – wave it like you mean it!!

#37 TurnerNation on 06.28.13 at 7:36 pm

Bad news for even Track5ers today. Today they are all Track6ers.

“With Mother Nature not on our side this afternoon we have some flooding inside Union Station which will make for a challenging commute this evening.
Some escalators are out of service and currently we have no elevator access to platforms 4 and 5 as well as the stairs that lead from these platforms to the York Street West Teamway have also been closed.
For passengers that access platforms 8 and 9 through the VIA Concourse walkway, this has also been closed.”

#38 Mike T. on 06.28.13 at 7:37 pm

Mr Turner

Good post as usual. I enjoyed the ‘party panties’ reference, although you are far too kind. The only folks who remain employed with worse forecasting are the weather people, most of them are in the job….not for their forecasting ability anyways (think Kristi Gordon).

Doug Porter et al are there to tell you stuff after it happened.

Greaterfool has got those ‘professionals’ beat by 12-18 months.

Thanks!

#39 craig on 06.28.13 at 7:51 pm

I’m the only one in my neighbourhood that proudly fly’s the Canadian Flag!!

Shame

I still have an old 150 page from a “TD Expert” that predicted Nortel was going to $200, when it was $120

He said BUY BUY BUY

Careful what you believe, whom and what their motives are.

Happy Canada Day folks !

#40 Don Ercole on 06.28.13 at 7:51 pm

No surprise though. I say by Dec 2015 the unemployment rate, and the lending rate, will be a full two points higher than July 2013. Easy prediction. (It’s the layoffs at Sears, Rona etc that are a little harder to see coming). I can’t believe that Cdns and Federal/Provincial gov’ts are behaving the way the yanks did in the run up to the 2008/2009 crash. We sure like being lied to don’t we? And we are only in the middle of the takeaway decade. Hold onto your jobs folks. (Exercise – list all the provinces, and their capital cities – and list the debt each one currently carries – better than a cold shower in Havana…almost).

#41 beaker on 06.28.13 at 7:53 pm

OY. Co-worker sold their Toronto Beaches home for 170k over asking, apparently breaking some local records. Listed it a few weeks ago on a Tuesday, open house on Thurs, and over the weekend, taking offers on the next Tuesday. 13 bids. Just insane. I pitty the greater fool.

#42 Smoking Man on 06.28.13 at 7:55 pm

TurnerNation on 06.28.13 at 7:36 pm

Bad news for even Track5ers today. Today they are all Track6ers.“With Mother Nature not on our side this afternoon we have some flooding inside Union Station which will make for a challenging commute this evening.

…………….

As always ahead of the curve, left at noon, let’s all guess where I am on a Friday Night….

………
People who confuse gambling with investing get creamed.—-Garth said….

No matter how much lips stick you put on the word investing, it’s still gambling, lower risk, lower returns..

They way I play, getting creamed is a huge posability, but the again, I was dead once. Every day is a winner…

#43 Donald Trump on 06.28.13 at 7:59 pm

I don’t understand why Smoking Man gets DELETED.

I means sure, he’s a DELETED-ing Trump Wannabee….hasn’t gotten DELETED since High School, is a fan of that stupid DELETED Rob Ford…but isn’t Canada a country built on acceptance of DELETED?

#44 Mukhtiar on 06.28.13 at 8:04 pm

Garth, I see a lot of my stupid family disagreeing with the notion that real estate in Vancouver will slide to the tune of 30-40 percent. Majority of my family is all south asian. But I as you also have something called a conscious. I understand like you that these assets called homes are at the mercy of the marketplace. And dwindling asset holds, be it in SFH (single family homes), or multi’s makes no difference. When complete tear downs or gut jobs are selling for upwards of 3/4 of a million in a city where incomes are grossly disproportionate to that sort of demand there will be a guaranteed decline in sales. Not because me and you might think it, or say it. But because it’s fact. No one in Scamcouver can afford that sort of housing inflation and still live comfortably whilst paying overhead and raising a family, we’ve yet to talk about vacations, or groceries for that matter. But a city like Scamcouver sees 90 percent of your median pre-tax household income go directly towards housing expenses???? That is complete suicide. The most grossly overpriced garbage and that 100 percent of your income goes towards it for the next 10-25 years? Absolute garbage. Vancouver real estate is royally screwed. EVen more expensive than downtown manhattan where incomes are double?

#45 Donald Trump on 06.28.13 at 8:06 pm

#15 Randy on 06.28.13 at 6:54 pm

I can’t see the whole sign in your pic Garth…Did she specify what kind of sex trick ?

Something to do with friction tape — Garth

===================================

I think Garth means red tape..ie a bureaucratic menage a trois = “please fill this out in triplicate”

#46 not 1st on 06.28.13 at 8:06 pm

“…having too much exposure to Canada is dumb”

But Garth, I just got to have that dividend tax credit and top up.

#47 steve p on 06.28.13 at 8:12 pm

“Central banks can do squat, and interest rates still rise”

you got it Garth, i bet very few that read this blog will take this to heart

#48 Godly Goldbug on 06.28.13 at 8:17 pm

Kinross and Barrick were not slammed today. You are obviously worried about the rebound today or you wouldn’t be spreading false information. Even your buddy Gartman said he doesn’t think it would be smart to short gold anymore. The manipulation gig in the precious metals is almost up. The Comex is running out of the metals and soon the paper will become irrelevant . Your so called U.S. recovery will prove you wrong in the very near future when Bernanke has to deal with his legacy plan. We will see who is right. Start counting the days.

This is ‘false information‘? You guys are not only delusional, you’re epic paranoid. — Garth

#49 fool too on 06.28.13 at 8:25 pm

Make that three times for mortgage rate increases.
http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/2013/0628-mortgage-rates.html?utm_source=buffer&utm_campaign=Buffer&utm_content=bufferc16c6&utm_medium=twitter

#50 Old Man on 06.28.13 at 8:27 pm

Happy Canada Day Mr. Turner and love the menu at the Rum Runner @66 as it sure looks good :)

#51 TurnerNation on 06.28.13 at 8:28 pm

(Weekend rant:)

Cars were supposed to bring freedom in USA and Canada.

“See the USA in a Chevrolet.”
“Get your kicks on Route 66.”
“You got it, Pontiac.”
“What’s good for GM is good for USA.”
“On a Clear Day You Can See General Motors.”

(All well before my time but you get the idea.)

Today, cars are majorly used as social and legal enforcement tools of the Elites’ and the State’s design.

Millions lock into sub prime car loans, remit double digit interest rates in return for un-repayable rustbucket usuries. Even in Canada most car ads trumpet 8 year finance terms. Insurance? A state-sanctioned remedy.

1001 laws in existence by which you may be pulled over and sanctioned. Not enough! New laws – rammed-in the past few years: Lowered BAC count, speeding roadside seizures, cell phone laws, tinted window laws, smoking-in-car laws, red light cameras, photo radar.

Toronto’s mulling toll roads yet expressway closures. The last new artery – Hwy 407 – was sold to a vulture fund, by the Cons, who promptly quadrupled rates.
Agenda 21 much? Concentrate in your cities.

In USA many roadside crimes result in instant forfeiture of car, cash. All into the local police’s coffers. Highway robbery anew.
The drug sniffing dog is called in – it never lies right? Bound by its master command. A nod, a wink, the sign. Then the car is taken away. Good luck challenging that one.

Gas is 50% comprised of taxes. Yet we have road tax, tire tax, plate tax, A/C tax, environment tax. Carbon tax. Tolls. User Fees. Parking permits. On top of property taxes.
To where is the money going? We should pave in gold. Alberta gravies out its roadwork to private cos. PC load letter. To the bank!

#52 dro on 06.28.13 at 8:28 pm

My real estate agent uncle just sold his house. Downsized and moved further from the GTA to reduce his debt and real estate exposure. Probably locked in at a low rate.

Do you think he knows something Garth?

#53 Smoking Man on 06.28.13 at 8:48 pm

We all chase the dollar, the mightily dollar, we need too, to survive. We trade our time for wages the machine designates appropriate for the task at hand.

Via the education industrial complex getting us at young tender age, it sets the mould, the expectations. The young man with the jack hammer makes dick, vs the guy in the tie.

We evolved from hunters men, the machine has emasculated the men, the hunter. It’s elevated the other gentle side that just wants to nurture baby’s. It has programed her t think that thought is of a lesser.
As the young girls far out number the boys in university no asks why. Is it an mistake, a unusual trend.

Are boys just stupid.

It’s deliberate, the men at the top so frightened of competition have gone to great lengths to preserve power.

The monkey is confused, when smoking man projects the obvious, he’s bashed, made fun of..

I don’t chirp back, as I know it’s your teacher talking, how does one become a teacher, the open wide and swallow

Cool aid.

Just saying, four wines deep and I can speel..

I love life

#54 DreamingInTechniColour on 06.28.13 at 8:50 pm

Based on the comparison of North American economies, I’ll bet a lot of new Canadians may have wished they had become new Americans instead.

#55 craig on 06.28.13 at 9:03 pm

The RCMP blocks residents in Calgary from accessing their homes, while another group of RCMP officers are illegally breaking into their homes and stealing their firearms.

They’re doing this so no one will illegally break into their homes and steal their firearms.

Happy Canada Day

High River, not Calgary. Cops took guns into temporary safekeeping while searching homes for victims. Seems reasonable. — Garth

#56 craig on 06.28.13 at 9:10 pm

19 Michael Clewley on 06.28.13 at 6:56 pm

Will RIM be ok?

Nope!

#57 Smoking Man on 06.28.13 at 9:11 pm

Open competitive playing field is what has evoloved our race.

We are not their now, but will be soon, you can have the perfect plan, the most aggressive prospective. Mother nature will crush that.

Japan, after getting nuked was hell bent on revenge, not with machine guns but economics, they exported, but did not and refused to import, pushing yen to stratosphere, creating bubbles, the yen threw the roof killed exports.

Machine I’m shit faced right now, but I have vision, your days are numbered, not because a few monkeys might come after you.. NSA watching thinking it’s under control.
Not going to be monkeys that do you in, you have planed every scenario, every probability, you think like machines before you, you have all bases covered, hiding in shadows won’t work.

My fee……. A Billion.. In in shit, what currency do I go with…

#58 Big Al (New) on 06.28.13 at 9:11 pm

How did you conclude from President Obamas speech that the Keystone Pipeline is all but dead. The one thing the US will never turn down is oil without having to invade.

http://my.chicagotribune.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-76493340/

#59 will on 06.28.13 at 9:13 pm

Really interesting gold graph here:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/06/gold-was-a-horrible-investment-from-1500-to-1965/277186/

#60 Old Man on 06.28.13 at 9:17 pm

#51 TurnerNation – I actually did the entire trip on route 66 out of Chicago back in the 1960’s as it was a blast all the way to LA. There was just one bump that took place while getting gas some 25 miles from Vegas. The guy at the gas station asked me if I was heading to Vegas at 6:00 PM as said you will have a big problem with a place to stay.

Lucky me as he had connections and for $5.00 would make a phone call to fix things, and he came back and said you have a reservation at the Tropicana Motel; not the Hotel. I drove there and was a nice place, but they didn’t know about any reservation. So took a room for $12.00. I looked like a mark and was conned by a crook.

#61 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.28.13 at 9:24 pm

@ #11 Canadian on 06.28.13 at 6:49 pm
Garth do you think it’s a good idea to push a personal portfolio’s US ETF’s to a little higher percentage and reduce Canada equivalently?
__________________________

Generally, yes. U.S. growth looks more promising than Canadian growth, and many Canadian companies are richly valued. But, this would obviously depend on what the % currently is. Also, given all the negativity around Europe, many international equities are extremely cheap.

Unfortunately, the best time to do this would have been 6-12 months ago… you’ve missed a 20% run + a 5% exchange rate gain.

#62 Ahead of the Curve on 06.28.13 at 9:29 pm

Garth,

And all greatfool blog readers. Wish you all a superb Canada Day weekend!

#63 AK on 06.28.13 at 9:30 pm

For all the American haters..

Home values in Las Vegas jump 28 percent, highest among large U.S. cities

#64 Dean Mason on 06.28.13 at 9:31 pm

Next week there is a U.S. jobs report for the month of June-2013.Bond yields on U.S. and Canadian bonds have dropped 9 to 12 basis points 0.09% to 0.12% in the last week.

It looks like the bond market with a 1.80% lower GDP in the last quarter reported this week and now looking towards the U.S. jobs data for June-2013 will show the direction of bond yields in coming weeks.If we get a weak U.S. jobs report you will see a big decline in U.S. and Canadian bond yields maybe 0.20% to 0.30% 20 to 30 basis points in 1-2 weeks.

If we see a 185,000 to 225,000 June-2013 U.S. jobs report than higher bond yields are here to stay.Gold and silver prices will jump with a week U.S. jobs report as well.

#65 craig on 06.28.13 at 9:33 pm

High River, not Calgary. Cops took guns into temporary safekeeping while searching homes for victims. Seems reasonable. — Garth

Really?

They admitted they were looking specifically for firearms not people.

So if they enter your home right now, without a warrant and take what they want, would that be reasonable?

So, drown with your gun. Be happy. — Garth

#66 Dean Mason on 06.28.13 at 9:40 pm

Correction

Gold and silver prices will jump with a weak U.S. jobs report.Right now the highest provincial strip bond yields are 4.33% to 4.34% 2031,2034,2035 maturities.This doubles your money every 16.33 years in a TFSA,RRSP,RESP.

#67 Smoking Man on 06.28.13 at 9:48 pm

To bubble boy

Generally, yes. U.S. growth looks more promising than Canadian growth,

……………

See that’s the thing with growth, non existence when one is on his 8th wine, at a bar, wife’s in bed, and a hot 30ish ting wants to go..

Ah dawn. I still got it. Not the bald head, or the pot belly,.

It’s the eyes, it’s always been the eyes…

#68 Cory on 06.28.13 at 9:50 pm

I don’t know Garth. Like those who are waiting and wanting the US to crash and burn, it seems you want the same for Canada. The Keystone comment kind of solidifies this. It’s like you want Obama to kibosh it. It won’t just hurt Alberta if that happens.

All those who think shale oil will save the US are very wrong and clearly do not understand these tight oil plays. Just as journalists who were writing about how oil would be over $300 bbl and the world would run out of it, they are now writing about how the world has too much of it and that the US will be energy independent very soon. Sure, they need something to write about so they write wild stories to sell “papers”. But all of them will be wrong again.

I agree with a lot of what you write minus using ETF’s and miscellaneous other items, but I’m a bit disappointed about your negative view of the country you also call home.

Let’s compare what we have each done for Canada. — Garth

#69 Bargains everywhere on 06.28.13 at 9:53 pm

#60 Old Man on 06.28.13 at 9:17 pm

Fortunately for me, our gas station experience was a little different.

We were driving through France years ago and did not have a hotel for the evening and everything in the nearby town was booked. It was getting late so in desperation we stopped at a gas station and asked the lady working there in our poor French if she knew of any places to stay. It turned out a friend of hers ran a small country inn so she called for us and luckily they had 1 room still available. Beautiful little place full of antiques that we never would have found on our own. We had a wonderful meal and a gorgeous chambre. What a relief!

#70 Bob on 06.28.13 at 9:55 pm

Wow you sure practice censorship, Garth. You can exagerate and tell tall tales, but when someone else questions you, you delete them or don’t publish it. I’m sure this comment also won’t make it to the blog.

Have no idea what you’re talking about. — Garth

#71 kilby on 06.28.13 at 9:57 pm

In BC the Libs campaign and win on a ‘debt free’ platform, then table a budget increasing the debt by $14 billion.

Not only is it debt free (by way of increasing debt) but it is also balanced (by way of asset sales). Good time to hand out some raises.
*********************************************
So sad, the Chamber of Commerce and Bob Rennie said everything would be OK if we kept the commie hoards out, what a pathetic bunch we are here on the left coast.
Sell everything the government owns to foreign investors at fire sale prices just to make the next four years look good.

#72 Victor V on 06.28.13 at 10:06 pm

Britney and Kevin have a problem that will be familiar to many Canadians – too much debt and not enough income.

They are 30 with two young children, ages 2 and 4, and a century home that recently required $100,000 worth of repairs. There is still much work to do.

“We’re really concerned that a surprise roof leak or rotten siding in the next year will force us to put a major repair on credit again,” Britney writes in an e-mail.

They want to set up an emergency fund but they are so burdened with debt they are not sure where the money will come from…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/a-young-couples-burden-crushing-debt/article12892432/

#73 james on 06.28.13 at 10:08 pm

garth, what do you think? realistic forecast considering no one really knows?

http://mortgage-x.com/general/indexes/prime_rate_forecast.asp

#74 Old Man on 06.28.13 at 10:08 pm

#65 craig – I looked at this carefully, and believe what the RCMP did was prudent under the circumstances. This area called High River and excuse the pun, was devastated with vacant homes. Now what if the bad guys came in to hoop all those guns for the street by going from house to house to boost them?

#75 Smoking Man on 06.28.13 at 10:13 pm

#62 Ahead of the Curve on 06.28.13 at 9:29 pm
Garth,And all greatfool blog readers. Wish you all a superb Canada Day weekend!

……..

Pathetic ass kisser is all I can say…….

Garth you such…..

I hate ass kissers.

#76 Nemesis on 06.28.13 at 10:16 pm

“What they did to me… What I am… Can’t be undone.”

Canada KicksAssRoyally. July26 in a TheatreNearYou. BeThere.

http://youtu.be/WEbzZP-_Ssc

I wonder who writes that s**t?

#77 Smoking Man on 06.28.13 at 10:19 pm

See that’s what I’m taking about

Ahead of the curve kissing garth ass

Real men don’t do skit like that. OK we all like garth, you insult him then. That’s what real men do. He’s a dude he gets it.

What is this f-en world coming too.

You are one inch from oblivion. — Garth

#78 nocte_volens on 06.28.13 at 10:21 pm

Smug won’t help you.

It seems to work for you. ;)

#79 AK on 06.28.13 at 10:30 pm

June bond sales in the U.S. totaled $43.9 billion through Thursday night, down from $127.5 billion in May, according to Dealogic. The number of issuers tumbled to 72 from 188.

Cheap Money Drying Up

#80 Mark on 06.28.13 at 10:30 pm

So who listened to me and bought EEM on monday? 5% gain in 5 days. 13% with conservative options. Take your money and run. Wait for the next set-up. Learn to game the markets the way wall street is gaming everyone else, and you’ll never chase dividends again. I would shoot myself waiting 12 months for a 5% dividend.

#81 Old Man on 06.28.13 at 10:31 pm

#69 Bargains everywhere – that is nothing as ran into same problem outside of SF, as at 9:00 PM could find no place to stay, and let me tell you about American kindness. I went to a large hotel, and there were no rooms, so the desk management knew I was from Canada. The lady said park your car in the parking lot underground, and will alert the security guard that you will be sleeping for free in the backseat, and there will be no problem.

#82 Canadian Watchdog on 06.28.13 at 10:33 pm

#63 AK

For all the American haters. Home values in Las Vegas jump 28 percent, highest among large U.S. cities.

"In Las Vegas, sales prices are climbing as investors gobble up cheap homes in bulk to use as rentals, shrinking the inventory of homes for sale."

lol… Sure. A 28% jump in home prices and a 28% jump in 30yr rates. That's a 56% increase in monthly payments for new buyers compared to a year ago. Where did incomes increase at that rate?

Ever wonder why Shiller and Case are hesitant to call a recovery? It's because they know prices are coming off a low base sales count. The percentages look BIG, but they're counting peanuts.

Oh and here's what's about to apply for Navadans. Good luck.

#83 a prairie dawg on 06.28.13 at 10:37 pm

“Blow each other up” – lol

I stopped and bought some air superiority for this weekend too. Usually do for most stat holidays.

Git er done. :)

#84 allan on 06.28.13 at 10:39 pm

Garth, what were you smoking? Gold miners were up today despite gold holding steady, I am up 16% in a single day because I could not resist the price of HGU (leveraged etf) on Wednesday. One needs to see an equity from an emotional point of view, because there are rarely any rationale behind equity pricing. One thing is clear, US $ is just as desirable as gold and the sooner people will start appreciate US$ along with AU the smarter.

#85 Donald Trump on 06.28.13 at 10:41 pm

High River, not Calgary. Cops took guns into temporary safekeeping while searching homes for victims. Seems reasonable. — Garth

==================================

In my role as Garth’s proxy/interpreter and/or power of attorney…he is unclear whether Buckshot, Bear Slug or Hollow Point is the best option.

We need feedback ASAP

#86 Yitzhak Rabin on 06.28.13 at 10:42 pm

Yestrday I said you should short gold with extreme leverage if you were so confident $800/ounce was coming. Hopefully you held back.

I bought recently, not in 2011 when Gordon G. Liddy was telling me to every commercial break.

Gold stocks priced in armagaeddon in the gold market. Notice how strongly they outperformed the metal itself today. Yesterday’s asset write downs can just as easily become tomorrow’s book value increases.

These shares show every indication of a bottom, massive capitulation sell off, universal bearish sentiment and low level of ownership.

Meanwhile the fundamentals which drove it from $300/ounce to $1,900 remain in place. Negative real interest rates, endless credit creation and now monetization of unpayable debt by the central bank.

Most of the US inflation is exported abroad. It is allowed to roost when foolish foreign central banks try to prevent their currencies from strengthening. It is now causing a lot of problems. Look at Brazil (riots), India (capital controls) and South Africa (collapsing exchange rate).

Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Australia and New Zealand all cut their interest rates when their economies did not need it. For example, adjusted for population to the US, Australia created an equivalent 900,000 last month.

We will see how much their citizens enjoy inflation. If measures are enacted to fight it, watch the US dollar take a big hit.

The commodity bull run is not over. However, I do agree that it will not save Canada. Personal debt is still at record highs and hugely sensitive to interest rate increases.

Buy gold, silver, mining shares, and dividend paying oil producers now. Sell in 5 years and get a dirt cheap Canadian house.

#87 KommyKim on 06.28.13 at 10:46 pm

There was a funny bit on the local news (Chek 6 Victoria, BC) the other night. There were a bunch of Realturds complaining that condo depreciation reports were hurting sales. They actually had the gall to say that it was bad for the buyers because they were “needlessly” being scared away by the potential of future special assessments.

#88 Smoking Man DELETED on 06.28.13 at 10:51 pm

#53 Smoking Man on 06.28.13 at 8:48 p
—————————————–
I’ll give you a good stat available in the public domain:

The ratio of women-to-men in the federal government is 55 to 45.

http://www.tbs-sct.gc.ca/lrco-rtor/relations/fs-fr/cwmps-rfhfp-eng.asp

Yet job ads clearly state that women are encouraged to apply as they will be given priority over an equally qualified male.

Why is this so if the ratio is 55 to 45?

Bold-faced gender discrimination is alive and well in the federal government hiring process.

#89 Barry Lainof on 06.28.13 at 10:53 pm

#73 Old Man on 06.28.13 at 10:08 pm
#65 craig – I looked at this carefully, and believe what the RCMP did was prudent under the circumstances. This area called High River and excuse the pun, was devastated with vacant homes. Now what if the bad guys came in to hoop all those guns for the street by going from house to house to boost them?

So. A band of evil doers are going home to home (13,000 homes I think), looking for waterlogged guns (most in gun safes or with trigger locks), swimming or boating I presume in the dead of night. This is what bad people looking to make money would be doing ? To worry about this is “reasonable” ? LMAO !!!

The RCMP should be more worried about fly by night home repair/reno guys coming into Southern Alberta and ripping off people that are desperate for a clean, dry home.

The RCMP should be more vigilant in preventing government infrastructure contracts being illegally given to party favourites or other unsavoury types.

To be worried about 1000 legally held guns (tops) was over reach. There are more than a thousand illegal guns in the bad guys hands in South Calgary, much better – more deadly than the shotguns or long rifles the RCMP took.

#90 KommyKim on 06.28.13 at 10:56 pm

RE: #24 Ben on 06.28.13 at 7:15 pm
well diversified portfolio of stocks — not just a few stocks — could perform better than ETFs, while keeping the risk level low? If so, how many stocks, how many different industries would you target for a single portfolio?

The iShares XIC holds 235 different stocks from the TSX.
The iShares XWD holds 1,509 international stocks.
So unless you have tons (million+) of money, then no.

#91 FATHER on 06.28.13 at 10:59 pm

YOU HAVE OUT DONE YOURSELF GARTH, AWESOME/GROOVY POST & HAPPY CANADA DAY ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND & RELAX YOU DESERVE IT.
sorry for yelling but the post made me a little too exited.

#92 Lame on 06.28.13 at 11:00 pm

Who’s the d-bag who keeps refreshing your page all day, every day just so that they can write “first” in the comments section?

Please, please get a life whoever you are.

#93 neo on 06.28.13 at 11:03 pm

“They made a big smelly deal of the most recent revision of US GDP numbers from 2.4% to 1.8%, suggesting we all need to hoard Starkist and Huggies.” – Garth

Do you want perspective Garth?

Do you know what the average US GDP was from 1929-1945?

Answer: 1.4%

So even during the Great Depression without the massive stimulus that The Fed has embarked on this time around they still managed 1.4%. Now, even with the most accommodative monetary policy ever, since 2008 we are barely doing better than that.

Most people assume GDP was negative the whole time, it wasn’t. People just went along and lived their lives while others were destroyed and tooks years to recover. Nobody in the mid 1930’s thought they were only half way through it and neither do most people now.

The GDP in 1932 shrank by a stunning 8 per cent. During WW2 it swelled by 16 per cent. By lumping those two extremes together you have proven conclusively you are the worse source on this blog. — Garth

#94 Piccaso on 06.28.13 at 11:12 pm

#43 Donald Trump on 06.28.13 at 7:59 pm
I don’t understand why Smoking Man gets DELETED.

…………………………………………………………………….

He’s a borrring soap opera that’s a repeat 10 times a night.

#95 Tony on 06.28.13 at 11:20 pm

Re: #84 allan on 06.28.13 at 10:39 pm

You’re going to get caught on the wrong side of the trade. What you saw today was only short sellers locking in profits by covering their short positions on the last day of the month and last day of the quarter. Your last chance to get out of gold and silver will be when the June unemployment figures are made public. Other than that the world is in a deflationary spiral which could see gold fall all the way back to four-hundred dollars an ounce.

#96 AK on 06.28.13 at 11:26 pm

#82 Canadian Watchdog on 06.28.13 at 10:33 pm

“Oh and here’s what’s about to apply for Navadans. Good luck.”
——————————————————————
Indeed, Obamacare will come and go. Just like the fiscal cliff bullshit, along with the debt ceiling shit and that tax which took place in January of 2013. I forget what it was named. It is just noise, my friend.

Face it, the boom in Las Vegas and the U.S. in genaral is in the early stages. Stop being negative and profit from it instead.

#97 Old Man on 06.28.13 at 11:29 pm

#89 Barry Lainoff – I stand firm as believe the RCMP made a prudent move, as if they were able to find lots of guns on site, what makes you think that the bad guys could not have done the same? The RCMP made a prudent move as a judgement call within the context of the situation against looters for the overall public safety in society.

#98 Tony on 06.28.13 at 11:31 pm

Re: #66 Dean Mason on 06.28.13 at 9:40 pm

One thing for certain is the June unemployment report will be the weakest in many, many years. That’s almost 100 certain after seeing their GDP downgraded. I wonder who will have the honour of picking the figure out of the hat next month?

#99 tartling on 06.28.13 at 11:34 pm

gold was down 2% yesterday. gold stocks were up 3.5% most of the day, closed up 2%…interesting inflection point.

this morning gold was off a percent and gold stocks where up one…two…three…four percent…gold rallied, up 2%….gold stocks (in aggregate) were up 8.5% today….i’ve never seen anything like it.

#100 Lame on 06.28.13 at 11:38 pm

“… Cops took guns into temporary safekeeping while searching homes for victims. Seems reasonable. — Garth”

I beg to disagree sir. The houses were already empty (no one needed to be protected), the police initially didn’t tell anyone until someone “leaked” the information, and unless there is a special provision in the law for floods, the very act of breaking into houses without just cause is illegal. If there is a provision, I’d like to read the wording of it.

It’s an example of how our authorities here will use any excuse they can to infringe upon our rights, and they’ll easily get away with it in this case because most people share your opinion. I will be considered to be paranoid for even daring to raise an objection.

But what a great opportunity for them to conduct information gathering on the private lives of every citizen in the affected area! I feel so much safer now.

#101 oceanside on 06.28.13 at 11:40 pm

Donald Trump on 06.28.13 at 10:41 pm
High River, not Calgary. Cops took guns into temporary safekeeping while searching homes for victims. Seems reasonable. — Garth

Not! what a load….

#102 Donald Trump on 06.29.13 at 12:09 am

#94 Piccaso on 06.28.13 at 11:12 pm

#43 Donald Trump on 06.28.13 at 7:59 pm
I don’t understand why Smoking Man gets DELETED.

…………………………………………………………………….

He’s a borrring soap opera that’s a repeat 10 times a night.

====================================

Yeah..its the Smoking Man Channel….I get it with the “Rob Ford Dancing with the Stars” channel

#103 Tim on 06.29.13 at 12:10 am

Just wondering if you can explain how they spun the numbers re: front page of today’s Vancouver Sun on this being a balanced market and price being up???

#104 FutureExpatriate on 06.29.13 at 12:17 am

If The Keystone Pipeline is such an environmentally safe, job creating terrific deal, why doesn’t BC want all the lovely wonderful corporate goodness running through their province, which is a much shorter route? You know, bringing THEM all the awesome “benefits”.

Or is that a “Duh” question.

#105 FutureExpatriate on 06.29.13 at 12:20 am

#77 You are one inch from oblivion. — Garth

Garth… you know it’s not nice to make fun of the size of a persons’ privates. Even when it matches the size of their brains.

#106 Smoking Man on 06.29.13 at 12:34 am

DELETED

#107 VIVE LA FRANCE on 06.29.13 at 12:41 am

Happy Canada Day!

We are out of Maple Syrup. And I miss Costco. Time for a visit.

#108 Mark on 06.29.13 at 1:20 am

Isn’t it clear that the next BoC move is down? Won’t help mortgage borrowers though.

The BoC will not cut rates. — Garth

#109 Smokin' Man on 06.29.13 at 1:49 am

#65 craig – I looked at this carefully, and believe what the RCMP did was prudent under the circumstances. This area called High River and excuse the pun, was devastated with vacant homes. Now what if the bad guys came in to hoop all those guns for the street by going from house to house to boost them?

Did they go in with geiger counters looking for WMDs, or how about child porn… won’t someone think of the children. The least they could do is toss the milk from the fridge so it doesn’t smell things up.

And I’m sure they never pocketed a few pieces of jewelry… you know.. to offset the cost of this good deed. No one will miss it… the stuff that was washed away by ‘the water’ of course.

#110 Debtfree on 06.29.13 at 2:11 am

@32 vrs . You got nothing to worry about . I think Brian Mulroney is still on the BoD of barrick gold . He’ll make sure the share holders of the biggest gold buggery in the world don’t get screwed . Right ?

#111 Debtfree on 06.29.13 at 2:30 am

@smokingman . You only hate ass kissers because you have never had your ass kissed .

#112 Devore on 06.29.13 at 2:41 am

#32 vrs

Hey genius, Barrick was up over 6% TODAY… what your portfolio returns in a year… lol!

Barrick and a hundred other tickers. By the amount of smug in your post, I assume you bought this morning and unloaded before close?

#113 groovin_123 on 06.29.13 at 2:42 am

Actually no, Kinross was up over 10% today it didn’t get “slammed”.

Anyway, facts aside…. BUY when sentiment is overblown to the negative, right Garth? How about this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-28/golden-sentiment-rule-if-it-isn%E2%80%99t-chart-now-it-will-be-soon

Note this is a collection of graphs rather than a promotion of another blog. I hope you publish this, but I guess you have every right not to.

BTW: I also bought XRE.T into the lows (REIT ETF) and am up comfortably at this point – not just a gold humper.

Happy trading kids.

Gold is speculative, volatile and wholly unsuited for the kind of emotional, gaming, one-trick-pony investors who flock here to pump it. — Garth

#114 Freedom First on 06.29.13 at 2:51 am

#77 Smoking Man-
Please do us all a favor and push ahead 1 more inch into oblivion.

#115 Onthesidelines on 06.29.13 at 4:37 am

One pattern of inconsistency that I find noteworthy in this blog is that our host seems to be talking out of both sides of his mouth. When it comes to realestate and it’s support industry, Garth will slam the industry’s economists who are often joined at the waist to the mortgage and, ultmately, the banking industry including TD, BMO RB. He labels them, rightfully so, as shills for the realturd industry.

But when it comes to the market and the US economy, whatever BS comes out of the mouths of the economists connected to the banking/investment houses, all of a sudden is taken seriously as if it were god’s own truth.

So while it is crystal clear that one group of economists is making it all up because of conflict of interest, it seems that there is no recognition at all on our host’s part of another group of econmists who are shilling for the investment houses and market movers. Any data that conflicts with what these shills are claiming is regularly and automatically rejected as fringe, regardless of the validy of its source.

Cherry picking is in season all year long here, methinks.

It will be interesting to watch in the coming year how our host will manage to wiggle out of his stated positions on interest rate hikes in Canada and the ending of QE in a US that he claims is well and clear on its way to recovery.

Expect a few more “Oooops” posts.

The US is in recovery. No amount of hyperbole on your part will change that. — Garth

#116 Onthesidelines on 06.29.13 at 4:59 am

#66Dean Mason on 06.28.13 at 9:40 pm

” Right now the highest provincial strip bond yields are 4.33% to 4.34% 2031,2034,2035 maturities.”

DEAN MASON – Would be most grateful is you could post the link to this info as I am now looking for such bonds.

With thanks in advance, Onthesidelines.

#117 willworkforpickles on 06.29.13 at 5:09 am

Rising interest rates are the very nemesis to servicing the US debt. The smoke and mirrors show continues south of the border with the current fed gambit trashing gold in the process for now….but QE will not be getting tapered by year end. The US can’t pay it’s bills now and higher interest rates could send the US careening toward bankruptcy. The fed ploy in effect currently is clearly a manipulation in part to drive gold way down to some targeted buy level with accumulation happening all the way down. By years end when the QE program is reaffirmed and sent into orbit, so will the price of gold along with it.
As I said with RE …. I’d watch for prices to be coming down in the GTA by August.

#118 Dean Mason on 06.29.13 at 6:34 am

Google Canadian fixed income and you will find it.

#119 Jim on 06.29.13 at 6:52 am

Locked in at 3.69% for ten years last Friday at First National….their rate is now 4.19%

Thanks Garth…..

#120 Buy? Curious? on 06.29.13 at 6:52 am

Hey Garth, the mental picture of fat bank economists made me pee my pants! Which is better than living in Missassauga and having it rain poo.

A buddy of mine, whose next door neighbours are having a hard time selling their house (6weeks on the market and a $50k reduction) asked him if he could NOT have a Canada Day BBQ because they are having Open Houses all weekend. My buddy laughed in his face! Thank Alallah he did because I’ve printed a Banksy style tshirt from his gangster fan base and hoping to impress the ladies at the BBQ.

I’d love to be a renter in Calgary. Owning Quebec is boring.

#121 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.29.13 at 7:51 am

40% of GTA New Home/Condo sales from foreign buyers?
http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/item/1687-developers-limit-exposure-to-investor-buyers

#122 Bottoms_Up on 06.29.13 at 8:04 am

#100 Lame on 06.28.13 at 11:38 p
—————————————-
I heard on the news (which is always right) that when a state of emergency is called, it is within their right by law to break into your house and take your guns.

#123 Bottoms_Up on 06.29.13 at 8:07 am

#97 Old Man on 06.28.13 at 11:29 pm
—————————————-
The RCMP is also capable of stopping ‘bad guys’ who have looted homes and stolen guns. If they can break into homes, why couldn’t they just patrol the area instead?

#124 AK on 06.29.13 at 8:14 am

#95 Tony on 06.28.13 at 11:20 pm
“You’re going to get caught on the wrong side of the trade. What you saw today was only short sellers locking in profits by covering their short positions on the last day of the month and last day of the quarter. Your last chance to get out of gold and silver will be when the June unemployment figures are made public. Other than that the world is in a deflationary spiral which could see gold fall all the way back to four-hundred dollars an ounce.”
——————————————————————–
Hey Tony,

The June numbers will come in @ just under 200K. Ben has been sending out messages over the last couple of months.
The best thing to do is to listen to the Fed and not get cought with your pants down. :-)

#125 Bottoms_Up on 06.29.13 at 8:18 am

#62 Ahead of the Curve on 06.28.13 at 9:29 pm
————————————————-
Thank you for the well wishes of having a great Canada day. It is definitely a time to reflect on the fact that we live in one of the best countries in the world, and that most of our quibbles are “1st world” problems.

Have a safe Canada day everyone!!!

#126 neo on 06.29.13 at 8:19 am

The GDP in 1932 shrank by a stunning 8 per cent. During WW2 it swelled by 16 per cent. By lumping those two extremes together you have proven conclusively you are the worse source on this blog. — Garth

Garth please. That is why I included the worse years, the best years and everything inbetween. I wasn’t cherry picking. Even with BOTH extremes the GDP isn’t much different than it is now. You are extracting assumptions based on what, a previous quarter revision, that’s putting things in context? I was panning out and looking at 16 years of data.

#127 maxx on 06.29.13 at 8:57 am

#9 Regular Visitor on 06.28.13 at 6:44 pm

Point of interest for travelers (perhaps many of you already know this):
I was in one of the big 5’s today and after doing some banking, TNL asked if there was anything else she could do. I mentioned that I needed US$, but would buy at a currency exchange place as it was better value. She said, “I’ll go online, find their rate, and match it”. Great! One less errand. I then mentioned that some banks offer even better rates than the Forex places…..you know the rest of the story. So, it would appear that banks are competitive. Just ask.

If they don’t match, walk. Some days, I walk a lot. Keeps me in great fiscal condition! ;-))

#128 JimH on 06.29.13 at 9:02 am

#112 Devore
“#32 vrs
Hey genius, Barrick was up over 6% TODAY… what your portfolio returns in a year… lol!

Barrick and a hundred other tickers. By the amount of smug in your post, I assume you bought this morning and unloaded before close?”
===================================
Indeed! Gloating over a 6% bounce in a stock that’s lost over 50% in the last year and looks headed for a write-down!
Shouldn’t be too hard on vrs, though. The poor little young’un must be very, very new at this game!

#129 Herb on 06.29.13 at 9:04 am

#100 Lame,

that’s lame, Lame. The right to bear arms is not in our constitution. Braking into houses to look for victims is not against the law, and keeping loose guns off the street is very much a matter of public safety.

I’ll beat up on the Horsemen with the best of them, but not on that score.

#130 craig on 06.29.13 at 9:10 am

#74 Old Man on 06.28.13 at 10:08 pm #65 craig – I looked at this carefully, and believe what the RCMP did was prudent under the circumstances. This area called High River and excuse the pun, was devastated with vacant homes. Now what if the bad guys came in to hoop all those guns for the street by going from house to house to boost them?

=================================

If “bad guys” can break into a house, can they not break into a gun case.

The rcmp only took the guns left lying around and left the ones locked up.

DUH!

Maybe the head of the rcmp should have instructed them to take the bullets and leave the guns – problem solved right!

Double DUH!!

Bad guys don’t break into houses to steal guns they already have them. They’re there to steal money and jewelry.

This is Canada where we’re supposed to have rights / laws that would require a warrant to enter our homes….not Russia, not Nazi Germany….

The winners in all of this will be the lawyers that sue the rcmp. local gov’t, municipal gov’t, provincial and federal gov’t.

This is not going to end nicely or quickly and rightfully so.

You want a contradiction – not long ago the Toronto Police allowed protestors to smash windows, flip cars over and set police cars on fire, while 100’s Policeman stood by and watched.

Only in Canada eh?

#131 Pounding sand in Peachland on 06.29.13 at 9:15 am

Philips Lady I don’t get it

#132 Saint Herb on 06.29.13 at 9:16 am

I have a 120 day hold on the 3.69% 10 yr too but I also just found a nice rental. At the same time I just saw 2 houses I was watching drop there prices 200,000. It is almost tempting to take advantage of the low rate.
Could there be even bigger price drops?
I’m trying not to drink the cool aid.
At today’s prices I would need a mortgage to buy what I like.
Or
Rent and wait to see if I can buy nearly mortgage free.
Pressure is fierce. Logic says wait, emotions say buy.

#133 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.29.13 at 9:27 am

…the ability to perform basic math calculations was most closely associated with mortgage default.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/06/24/did-poor-math-skills-cause-subprime-meltdown/?mod=WSJ_article_outbrain&obref=obinsite

Maybe Bernanke just thought the average American getting a mortgage was in his economics class at Princeton? (vs. failing elementary school math)

#134 vrs on 06.29.13 at 10:03 am

“Did you read this”

If you knew anything about PMs (other than that it’s dumb money cause the “munny hunnies” on the corrupt CNBS told you so) you’d know the desperate, corrupt bullion banks have manipulated prices to meet the demand for physical (they now literally do not have enough to cover what is standing for delivery on the COMEX for June).

Of course the miners will shut projects down and slash cost to survive the criminal attacks (done with impunity… sound familiar…lol) on their business.

When the worm turns (which may have been yesterday), mainstream hacks in high heels and overgrown army jeeps will have lots of “splainin” to do.

#135 vrs on 06.29.13 at 10:18 am

#112 @Devore

I did not, and have been trading metals assets since gold was under $900.

And my “smug” is but a pebble in the ocean compared to the non stop smug trashing of anything gold or silver by your high heeled iconic hero… lol!

But hey, go ahead and buy some banks… everything’s peachy (but you may want to go over some those $billions$ in miss-priced toxic derivatives first), and it could never happen here…lol!

#136 Spiltbongwater on 06.29.13 at 10:22 am

High River, not Calgary. Cops took guns into temporary safekeeping while searching homes for victims. Seems reasonable. — Garth

I wonder how the RCMP knew guns were at those residents as the gun registry is dead now and not to be accessed. I hope the RCMP are taking the people tvs and other valuables for safekeeping as well.

#137 Spirit of the West on 06.29.13 at 10:29 am

Hey Garth, I took your advice and locked into a 10 year mortgage at 3.79% with ING.

Yes it is on a rental property but my principal residence is paid off and this rental house is on a double and capable of being subdivided.

This rental house sits next door and is always easy to rent out.

I view it as a future annuity. Yes, I have to feed it for about $150 per month but once its paid off by renters, it’s an income stream that I can manage with a bit of hard work.

As well, having a rental property allows me to write off (or share) certain expenses such as my lawn tractor.

Plus, if inflation goes nuts, this place will act as a hedge. Finally, if any of my four adult children go broke, they can always move back home — but stay on the other side of the fence.

Happy Canada Day everyone and lets not forget to help the flood victims who lost their homes with no insurance.

#138 Ahead of the Curve on 06.29.13 at 10:38 am

#75 Smoking Man on 06.28.13 at 10:13 pm

Pathetic ass kisser is all I can say…….

Garth you such…..

I hate ass kissers.
—————————————

You have to be kidding right? If you re-read the post, you will see that I was actually wishing you and everyone who enjoys reading this blog a great Canada weekend.

What has happened to basic civility? To basic manners?
Have you stuck your head in the sand so long, that you forgot what it means to be nice, for no other reason than to be nice?
Has the world made you such a cynical person, where you can’t accept a simple gesture of kindness?

I believe your inhumanity is what drives you, but it’s not me, I’m Ahead of Curve you see… so I wish you, a wonderful day and beautiful long weekend :)

#139 vrs on 06.29.13 at 10:46 am

Some reading for Garth… is that a worm turning I hear?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-28/golden-sentiment-rule-if-it-isn%E2%80%99t-chart-now-it-will-be-soon

#140 Joe on 06.29.13 at 10:57 am

The Empire State Building is forsale that sums up the recovery in a nutshell.

#141 Canadian Watchdog on 06.29.13 at 11:14 am

#96 AK

Face it, the boom in Las Vegas and the U.S. in genaral is in the early stages. Stop being negative and profit from it instead.

There's a word called 'liquidity' I recommend you learn before assuming profits can be taken immediately.

Home Investors to Buy Fewer Rentals as Prices Increase

An Early Investor Says Buy-to-Rent Housing Is Over

Och-Ziff hedge fund looks to exit landlord business (Smart money)

An asset is worth nothing if you can't sell it. The current US housing market is nothing more then a giant secular bull trap.

#142 happy renter on 06.29.13 at 11:14 am

I phoned my realtor who sold my house last year in Victoria and he’d get 80 call s a day,now he’s lucky to get 1.Seems everbody’s buying houses under $500,000.Resale houses are tanking but new ones are selling fast.I guess new buyers want the best.

#143 Basil Fawlty on 06.29.13 at 11:50 am

“The US is in recovery. No amount of hyperbole on your part will change that. — Garth”

The reported GDP number is 1.8%, which after inflation indicates negative real GDP. This is not much of a recovery after trillions in government stimulus.

What am I missing here?

#144 Panhead on 06.29.13 at 12:20 pm

#23 retired Boomer – WI on 06.28.13 at 7:14 pm

Holiday Weekend here and north of the 49th. Best wishes for a safe & enjoyable holiday.

I live right on the US border and our American neighbours have fireworks planned for both the first and fourth of July. Classy.
All the best to us on our birthday and our American friends to the south.

#145 Canadian Watchdog on 06.29.13 at 12:34 pm

CdnMortgageNews Tweeted 10 hours ago

"@CMHC_ca has clarified its standards for calculating debt service ratios on insured mtgs http://bit.ly/1aW2g0C  These take effect on Dec 31"

"Supporting documentation confirming income, employment status and income sustainability are required for all borrowers. Reasonable inquiries should be made and reasonable steps taken to obtain third party verification of the underlying income for all borrowers. This includes substantiation of employment status and income history"

In other words, lenders still haven't been required to verify income documentation to date, which means, if sales and prices are already falling without B20 rules, then come Dec 31, it's about to get a whole lot worse.

#146 JimH on 06.29.13 at 1:39 pm

#143 Panhead
“All the best to us on our birthday and our American friends to the south.”
===================================
Great post, sir! As both countries celebrate their respective Birthdays, perhaps we can also pay tribute to the fallen heroes from both sides of the border who fought for all of us in Afghanistan…

This is a moving tribute to those Canadian and American heroes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VB8itzVuFKA

Have a safe 1st & 4th!

#147 Blacksheep on 06.29.13 at 1:39 pm

If the RCMP are not letting home owners in how do they think bad guys are going to get the firearms?

This all about setting a presidence for future use, as there is no reasonable justification for these actions.

#148 backwardsevolution on 06.29.13 at 1:49 pm

Canadian Watchdog – thank you for keeping Garth on his toes. He almost always leaves out the WHY and HOW when he talks up the U.S. If I didn’t read so much U.S. news, I’d probably just take his word too and be sorely misinformed.

The U.S. is still in a most fragile state.

Thank you for all the great articles you post. Very much appreciated.

Doomers of a feather cower together. — Garth

#149 brainsail on 06.29.13 at 1:57 pm

“Canada Dollar Falls Most in 1st Half Since 1984 as Growth Trails”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-29/canada-dollar-falls-most-in-1st-half-since-1984-as-growth-trails.html?cmpid=yhoo

#150 Humpty Dumpty on 06.29.13 at 2:14 pm

What do you get when you cross Garth, Crosby and the girl in the pic…..

The UK is set to approve an artificial fertility treatment that will allow the creation of human embryos using genetic material from three parents in a bid to prevent specific birth defects. Opponents say it could lead to a “designer baby” market.

http://rt.com/news/uk-three-person-invitro-357/

Possible outcomes…

a) Ken Dryden
b) Wayne Gretzkey
c) Martin Short
d) Rick Mercer
e) Justin Truedau
F) Doug Ford or
g) Mike Myers

Vote for your top Canadian Designer Baby…

Super G series…..

#151 Donald Trump on 06.29.13 at 2:17 pm

Why is Smoking Man wearing a Penguin Costume ?

Is it global warming protest…or trying to pick up those chicks in the photo ?

#152 Daisy Mae on 06.29.13 at 2:32 pm

55 craig: “The RCMP blocks residents in Calgary from accessing their homes, while another group of RCMP officers are illegally breaking into their homes and stealing their firearms.”

********************

The RCMP were searching for flood victims. The RCMP removed guns that were not secured — guns left out in the open. Just doing their job.

#153 JimH on 06.29.13 at 2:35 pm

#182 Basil Fawlty
The 1.8% number is Real GDP; you’re considering it to be Nominal GDP. Real GDP is the Nominal GDP less the effects of inflation (currently running at 1.4% annualized, I believe).

#154 Stickler on 06.29.13 at 3:28 pm

Leverage works both ways.
US Corporate debt is at all time highs, while profitability is rolling over, and all other nations are slowing materially (and many with currency issues).

St Louis fed:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NCBTCMDODNS

US consumer is 70% of GDP…and they are not improving materially.

Enjoy the only bright spots:
– US housing
– US car sales
– US healthcare spending
– US private education

…and the financing of the above.

What am I missing?

#155 Tony on 06.29.13 at 3:28 pm

Re: #136 Spirit of the West on 06.29.13 at 10:29 am

Hey Garth, I took your advice and locked into a 10 year mortgage at 3.79% with ING.

You’ll cry a stream of tears as large as the floods in Calgary for that move. Ten year Canadian mortgages will probably drop below the three percent mark. You’ll see what i mean in about one weeks time.

#156 happy renter on 06.29.13 at 3:43 pm

Happy Canada day,to all you tax slaves.Our goverment hopes to raise more taxes for next year so you have less money for your families.I’m a proud Canadian even though nearly half my money goes to the goverment to waste it.

#157 Cowpoke on 06.29.13 at 4:03 pm

Garth! I consider you right up there with the likes of Max Keiser and Peter Schiff with your own unique points of view.

What happens to most business’s when sales volume goes down and they decide to raise prices to compensate? Should’nt banks be doing the same? They have too much power don’t you think.? They’ve milked the cow!, now they want to get even more milk!

And for my own unique point of view. Hey! There is way too much and an unnecessary concentration of power in this country! Free enterprize and less ‘govern’mental’ control. Everything must be done to most likely effect our safety and happiness. The majority of ‘us’, probably 80% of the working population (likely not psychopaths) are normal people going about their daily lives. We live, we die and we pay taxes! The ‘people’ own this country! Us, We, are not subject to the intimidation and mind control tactics of big business, bankers and governments and are not an obedient docile work force of manageable employees and egar consumers with a fixed habit of response to any authority!
Us, We, are not prey”!

#158 Joe on 06.29.13 at 4:12 pm

On the gold take down no physical has actually come into the market.
Manipulation people, even a blind man could see it.
You know who’s wearing shorts when the tide goes out.
Stealing theives who will get their just rewards.

#159 Old Man on 06.29.13 at 4:22 pm

Caesar is in trouble again in regards to the High River controversy with the RCMP. The people in Canada are mocking him, as why is the unelected officials in the PMO’s office telling the RCMP what to do? They say he is a coward in hiding, and see him not, as his puppets are doing his bidding. I read over 1000 comments, and most people are supporting the RCMP actions, but have taken a stand against Caesar with apparent anger. Gee I wonder why such a transformation in Canada has taken place against our dear ruler all of a sudden.

#160 Ronaldo on 06.29.13 at 4:38 pm

#130 Pounding Sand In Peachland –

”Philips Lady I don’t get it”

maybe this is it.

http://www.philips.ca/c/Hair-removal/wet-dry-hp6341_00/prd/en/

#161 oceanside on 06.29.13 at 5:04 pm

I phoned my realtor who sold my house last year in Victoria and he’d get 80 call s a day,now he’s lucky to get 1.Seems everbody’s buying houses under $500,000.Resale houses are tanking but new ones are selling fast.I guess new buyers want the best.
____________________________________________

Up island in Qualicum Beach and Parksville the hot market is in the $375,000 range, some more expensive homes are selling but they are the ones that are priced close to their tax assessed value.

#162 Smoking Man on 06.29.13 at 5:30 pm

#137 Ahead of the Curve on 06.29.13 at 10:38 am

Happens every time I leave wine for Jack……

Sorry, you are correct….. I’m an ass

Happy Canada a day….

#163 Old Man on 06.29.13 at 5:48 pm

What occurred in High River Alberta is similar to a Power of Sale process involving an eviction and the key word is vacant possession. I was retained by a major Law Firm in Toronto as their exclusive agent as it paid well for an hours work; a cool part-time job, but was dangerous. Now, the Sheriff’s Office was involved, and there were always two, and had to arrange for a meeting with a locksmith, as an eviction usually was scheduled at 1:00 PM.

I had full authority, and called one off which involved a shotgun; there was another when a young girl was hiding under a bed, and ran to lock herself into a bathroom, but the key is to guarantee vacant possession. One must search for people in hiding and pets that have been left behind, and in one case the guy had an enclosed cage in the backyard with about 50 pigeons – pigeon pie for dinners?

The RCMP were doing much the same with these vacant homes using a locksmith to enter as a public service involving humans or pets, and with a Power of Sale this must be reported to the appropriate authority to rescue these animals. Now some people get all upset that guns were taken away, but this was just a small part of their job. I have no problem with this at all.

#164 Pipeline on 06.29.13 at 6:11 pm

“Obama all but kills the Keystone Pipeline.” GARTH

I doubt you’re right about this.

http://my.chicagotribune.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-76493340/

Wow. A newspaper editorial. I must be wrong. — Garth

#165 rosie "moving forward" on 06.29.13 at 6:28 pm

#158 Joe

No physical has hit the market probably because gold nobs, who won’t get it, are too stupid to part with “the Precious”.

#166 AK on 06.29.13 at 6:41 pm

#155 Tony on 06.29.13 at 3:28 pm
“You’ll cry a stream of tears as large as the floods in Calgary for that move. Ten year Canadian mortgages will probably drop below the three percent mark. You’ll see what i mean in about one weeks time.”
——————————————————————-
Hey Tony,

I sure hope to hell that you do not manage money for a living. :-)

#167 Troy on 06.29.13 at 6:48 pm

Lol nice picture. I think Canada will be fine as long as the commodity boom continues – afterall, that is Canada’s largest export. I think the minimum wage really stifles the economy though – a lot of companies are leaving and shutting their doors.

#168 Daisy Mae on 06.29.13 at 7:11 pm

#89 Barry: “The RCMP should be more worried about fly by night home repair/reno guys coming into Southern Alberta and ripping off people that are desperate for a clean, dry home.”

**********************

Homeowners must take SOME responsibility for the decisions they make. They’re not children. Why is this the RCMPs responsibility?

#169 Herb on 06.29.13 at 7:23 pm

A true and amusing story for those who think that unauthorized entries by authorities should not be condoned.

Almost 40 years ago there was a small city in South-Western Ontario in which a doctor lived and had his general practice in a nice house right on main street. He died and willed his house to his long-time secretary. The secretary already had a house, so she spent little time in the doctor’s.

A few years later, there was a small fire in the vacant doctor’s house. As was their wont, the Fire Department turned off the electricity to the building and put out the fire. Then, to make sure that it was out, they searched the building from top to bottom. There was a locked steel door in the basement that they decided to open to check for fire behind it too. They forced it open, shone their flashlights in, got the hell out of there and called in a CF Explosive Ordnance Disposal Unit.

What their flashlights revealed was two hand grenades hooked up to a large battery. EOD was on the scene in a couple of hours and went to work. I got their after–action report (with 8×10 photographs) a week later.

The small-city doctor had been a bit of a cold warrior/survivalist. The door opened onto a short hallway that led to a swimming-pool sized underground water reservoir around which were stands with enough small arms, machine guns and rocket launchers to equip an Infantry company. The doctor had secured this arsenal against unauthorized entry by means of the hand grenades wired into the house electrical circuit and a back-up battery. The Fire Department had turned off the hydro, the back-up battery was dead, and nobody died. And the secretary had no idea of the real extent of her inheritance, and had never bothered trying to find out what was behind that door.

#170 Old Man on 06.29.13 at 7:32 pm

#168 Tony – the commodity boom in Canada is over, so the bust is coming soon. In fact see all consumers holding back on cash, as retail is getting hit, and the Real Estate market will be tanking sooner or later; hell want to live the good life, and am kicking my ass that never moved to Nova Scotia years ago.

#171 Derek R on 06.29.13 at 7:33 pm

#161 Ronaldo on 06.29.13 at 4:38 pm wrote in answer to
#130 Pounding Sand In Peachland comment: ”Philips Lady I don’t get it”:

maybe this is it.

http://www.philips.ca/c/Hair-removal/wet-dry-hp6341_00/prd/en/

Nope. You need to watch more TV. This is it.

Milk of Magnesia commercial

#172 Daisy Mae on 06.29.13 at 7:35 pm

#130 Craig: “The winners in all of this will be the lawyers that sue the rcmp. local gov’t, municipal gov’t, provincial and federal gov’t.”

******************

I think the High River homeowners will have more on their minds that suing everyone in sight. Get a grip!

#173 Donald Trump on 06.29.13 at 7:46 pm

Wow. A newspaper editorial. I must be wrong. — Garth

======================================

No worries .

The same group that monitors quality control on Realtors assures the same for editorials

#174 Joe on 06.29.13 at 7:50 pm

#166 Rosie.
No that’s not what it means its a tad more technical.
Manipulation contrary to people’s sense of fair play is illegal as former Fed members are speaking up about.
Any idea why it tanked so badly after Bernanke’s suggestion of QE tapering, its because certain banks were positioned beforehand aka insider trading. The people who bought gold are not the nobs.

#175 Form Man on 06.29.13 at 8:21 pm

#153 Daisy Mae

You are correct. The officers would have no choice. Unsecured firearms are illegal.

Being an experienced wildfire evacuee, I have no doubt there is, and was, looting in evacuated areas. These guns would have been of tremendous value to the looters…….

good for the police in doing the right thing

#176 Tony on 06.29.13 at 8:58 pm

Re: #167 AK on 06.29.13 at 6:41 pm

America tells more lies than the directors did at Bre-X. They told so many lies they lost track of them. Next thing you know interest rates are rising when in reality they should be making knew lows. Bernanke and the boys fumbled the ball on this one and had to rescind some of the lies by downgrading the second quarter GDP. After much discussion in America the June job figures have to point to recession to drop interest rates back down to yearly lows. This is exactly what will happen.

#177 Mikey the Realtor on 06.29.13 at 9:20 pm

A busy day today folks, buyers are out full scale looking to buy whatever they come across, today I had 4 showings and 2 offers, the market is picking up steam as the second half of the year becomes a sellers market again, I hope everyone is ready for another boom.

#178 45north on 06.29.13 at 9:30 pm

Retailer Rona punts a thousand workers as it darkens 11 mega-stores in key locations.

In Ottawa Lowes has opened a new store on Hunt Club Road – 2 kms away from Rona. Lowes seems to have the money. After making colossal mistakes in the US, it still has the credit to go head-to-head with Rona.

The retailer that committed the greatest act of suicide in the last decade is Lowes. Their act of hubris, as Home Depot struggled in the mid 2000’s, is coming home to roost today. They increased their store count from 1,385 to 1,749 over four years. This 26% increase in store count resulted in an increase in sales from $47 billion to $49 billion, a 4% boost. Profitability has plunged from over $3 billion to under $2 billion over this same time frame. They’ve won the efficiency competition by seeing their sales per square feet fall by an astounding 21% over the last four years. I’ve witnessed their ineptitude as they opened four stores within 10 miles of each other in Montgomery County, PA and cannibalized themselves to death. The newest store, three miles from my house, is a pleasure to shop as there is generally more staff than customers even on a Saturday afternoon. This beautiful new store will be vacant rotting hulk within three years.

http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=29848

basically Lowes expansion in Canada guarantees that Rona and Home Depot make very little profit.

#179 canadian on 06.29.13 at 9:33 pm

#178 mikey So what you’re saying is prices are going to skyrocket.How are people suppose to pay for these homes ,by everyone running dial a dope operations.You’re dreaming.

#180 Bargains everywhere on 06.29.13 at 9:47 pm

#178 Mikey the Realtor on 06.29.13 at 9:20 pm

Mikey, you are so funny. In my neighbourhood one of the listings was set up for offers last Tuesday but lo and behold, there was a open house again this weekend because no offers materialized. The market is cooling fast in most areas. Bidding wars are over for the most part. All I am seeing are price drops and listings building up. In Bayview Village (Bayview and Sheppard area) there are currently 24 listings whereas in the past there were usually only 7 or 8 at any one time. Sure, there is still the odd greater fool out there but prices have nowhere to go but down.

It won’t be too long before there really will be bargains everywhere.

#181 Mikey the realtard on 06.29.13 at 9:55 pm

Mikey the only boom coming is the negative balance on your overdraft account… You can stop pretending now… We all know you’re a part time nobody real estate agent who has time to post on here cause he has no clients lol

#182 Canadian Watchdog on 06.29.13 at 10:11 pm

Realtors happy electronic sales agreements will soon be legal

Good thing our government was thinking ahead of a crash. Robosigning will soon be legal.

#183 Donald Trump on 06.29.13 at 10:27 pm

Re RONA

I would dump this dog…

Poorly managed insofar as the track record.

While I like my local RONA…their strategy seems to roll the dice , throw caution to the wind and try to compete in every nook and cranny ..aka a “chicken little” strategy of ” we must build….hope they will come..and scare off the non existent competition”.

In North part of Richmond BC, they built a brand new store in a poor location that shut down after 3 years….and building still sits empty.

They also have a strategy of getting Ma and Pa outfits to become affiliates.

Conclusion:= they are falling on their own dumb arrogant sword.

#184 bob on 06.29.13 at 10:27 pm

we might be missing the obvious here that the elites at the top of the Ponzi scheme know and want their house of cards to crumble. its blatantly obvious here that they hold the power to bring it all down anytime they want.

#185 Canadian Watchdog on 06.29.13 at 10:45 pm

#148 backwardsevolution

He almost always leaves out the WHY and HOW when he talks up the U.S.

That's just a mix of ego and being discombobulated by doomer theory versus fact, and also the reason why I only post a fraction of the information I obtain and compile. Someone has to be on the other side of the trade.

#186 coastal on 06.29.13 at 10:57 pm

US is a dead cat bounce. Mortgage applications down 3% last week, refinance-application hit the lowest levels in two years. Expect to see follow through. The US is not the holy grail, it’s still reeling from the worst mortgage scam in world history for cripes sakes with multi-millions still out of work and many homeless.

#187 John on 06.29.13 at 11:05 pm

Wow…you said it…just in time for Canada day. Not looking all the bright and shiny right now. A financial crisis in China which stops buying all our resources and it may just be a little more than we can handle! I am hopeful we are at a temporary low point and will bounce back as a country but time will tell.

#188 bob on 06.29.13 at 11:26 pm

In the decline and fall of the Roman Empire in the end more than freedom people wanted security, they wanted a comfortable life – and they lost it all, security, freedom and comfort. We have followed our fear, greed and desire back to the same spot again and our freedoms are once again slipping away. Is it the curse of humanity to be such fools and fall for the same crap over and over throughout history? Time to wake up peeps….we’ve been tricked….again.

#189 Donald Trump on 06.29.13 at 11:36 pm

I think we should merge Canada Day and the 4th of July.

Maybe meet them 1/2 way….(1+4 )/2 = Smoking Mans IQ

This will help reduce Global Warming

#190 Devore on 06.30.13 at 2:42 am

#135 vrs

And my “smug” is but a pebble in the ocean compared to the non stop smug trashing of anything gold or silver by your high heeled iconic hero… lol!

Hero? You know who my hero is? That’s strange, even I don’t. I don’t worship or idolize people or things or even ideas. That’s your job.

But hey, go ahead and buy some banks… everything’s peachy (but you may want to go over some those $billions$ in miss-priced toxic derivatives first), and it could never happen here…lol!

No thanks, got plenty of those already. Guess what, they didn’t go up 10% in one day, because they haven’t dropped 50% since the beginning of the year either.

lol? What’s up with the “lol”? Sneaking onto the internet on your parents computer while they’re not looking? No one who has anything even remotely worthwhile to say ends their sentences with “lol”.

#191 Smoking Man on 06.30.13 at 7:05 am

#187 Donald Trump on 06.29.13 at 11:36 pm

I think we should merge Canada Day and the 4th of July.Maybe meet them 1/2 way….(1+4 )/2 = Smoking Mans IQThis will help reduce Global Warming

………

That’s it, never buying a Donald Trump shirt again.

#192 jess on 06.30.13 at 7:16 am

scanners in india?

“Workers in the new Bangalore office follow checklists to determine if appraisals are complete…The checklists in India cover 17 items such as whether the appraiser remembered to sign the report”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-27/bank-of-america-said-to-send-property-reviews-to-india.html

BofA Solves Liquidity Problem By Circumventing National Mortgage Settlement
BofA Is Selling Servicing Rights To Unregulated Servicers
By: Steve Dibert 06/21/13

http://www.salon.com/2013/06/28/new_bank_of_america_whistle_blower_emerges_more_customer_abuse/
=============
baseless numbers
Bill Black: The Heritage Foundation Makes Up Its Numbers
by Barry Ritholtz – June 29th, 2013, 5:00am

The Heritage Foundation: Where 7.8% Growth is “Moderate” and 4.4% is “Spectacular” By William K. Black Heritage Foundation is run by Jim DeMint, the former Tea Party legislator. Heritage promptly demonstrated the impact of its new leadership with its purported study of the benefits and costs of immigration that ignored the benefits and inflated…Read More
================

Strong message?

1983! report on tax havens …..”by terminating the tax treaty, Treasury sent a meaningful signal to the international tax community. Specifically, Treasury evidenced its intent to deal firmly with treaty haven abuses.”

STATEMENT OF
WILLIAM J. ANDERSON, DIRECTOR
GENERALG OVERNMENDTI VISION
BEFORE THE
SUBCOMMITTEEO N COMMERCEC, ONSUMER
AND MONETARYA FFAIRS
COMMITTEEO N GOVERNMENOTP ERATIONS
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
ON
FEDERAL EFFORTS TO DEFINE
AND COMBAT THE
TAX HAVEN PROBLEM
January 1, 1983, BVI

http://www.gao.gov/search?search_type=Solr&o=0&facets=&q=tax+evasion&adv=0

#193 jess on 06.30.13 at 7:35 am

Canadian watchdog :
… perhaps they could follow the Bank of America’s lead by outsourcing the appraisal documents to India.

#194 jess on 06.30.13 at 7:43 am

45 north

3 timmies within 700 meters

The city sent out letters notifying residents of the site plan application, but, according to Hertzog, they were only sent to homes within 60 metres of the development and the city had an out-of-date address for the Central Frederick Neighbourhood Association.
http://www.kitchenerpost.ca/news/timmies-drive-thru-slated-for-frederick-mall/

#195 OffshoreObserver on 06.30.13 at 8:18 am

This advertisement in the Economist is relevant to the general theme of “out-of-control” government.

$100K+ for a position that anyone in grade 10 or above could qualify for:

http://jobs.economist.com/job/4825/senior-economic-officer-new-delhi/

Also, that begs the question of what is an Ontario Civil Servant doing in India?

#196 Craig on 06.30.13 at 8:22 am

#153 Daisy Mae

You are correct. The officers would have no choice. Unsecured firearms are illegal.

Being an experienced wildfire evacuee, I have no doubt there is, and was, looting in evacuated areas. These guns would have been of tremendous value to the looters…….

good for the police in doing the right thing
==================================

Hmmmm OK. So you say they’re doing this because the guns are illegally stored. So will the homeowner / gun owner be charged?

The entry is illegal and they shouldn’t be allowed to take anything. That’s the issue folks have.

What if they found a bag of pot on the table. Do they take that and charge them?

Where does it end?

#197 Mikey the Realtor on 06.30.13 at 8:30 am

Look it that, my biggest fan mikey the retard weighed in with his daily rhetoric, if you want me to help you find your dream home then ask, don’t act like a 10 year old who has a crush on a girl but flings mud at her.

Bargains, bargains everywhere, your name is inline with what I’m seeing as well, it’s a great time to get into the RE market.

#198 rosie "moving forward" on 06.30.13 at 8:32 am

# 175 Joe

The usual conspiracy theory. You want technical. Here you go. http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au0182nyb.html

What gold nobs hate to admit is that gold is a commodity. A speculative trade. A return to the gold standard is a myth gold salesmen use to sucker gullible nobs. Check the advertising on the gold doomer sites. Suckas.

#199 Coho on 06.30.13 at 8:36 am

Bob — good posts.

The power behind world affairs is far above governments. Their allegiance is to themselves only and their goal is to rule the entire planet. There are various factions vying for world dominance—the end result being a planetary government. We’re well on our way. As it is today, Obama goes to the UN Security Council and/or NATO for permission to invade various countries and not to his own congress. The last time the USA declared war was in World War II.
The emergence of the middle class has been very recent and brief as we are witnessing its decimation. The rise of the middle class in the West was a necessary by product (albeit an unpleasant one from the perspective of TPTB) to build the infrastructure needed to facilitate the worldwide surveillance system and complete and utter subjugation of body and soul.

Every communication is monitored and stored, including personal information such as bank account numbers, passwords etc. Some people are OK with this as they feel if they have nothing to hide, then they don’t need any rights. As governments become increasingly paranoid of their own people we’d be surprised what interests, purchases, associations and opinions we may have which would be determined as those of a potential ‘criminal’ or ‘undesirable’ or even ‘enemy of the state’. It’s hard to believe that so many people are perfectly comfortable with the digital dossiers on them. When viewed under a microscope, almost anyone could be accused as a witch or ‘thinking’ about becoming one in this modern day witch hunt. Obama is now encouraging government workers to report anyone they think (co-workers) might be potential leakers! How can you make this stuff up? A fellow worker can turn you in for criticizing the government and the identity of this individual would be kept secret. This was predictable as it comes out of the tyranny playbook. Whisper lest you be overheard and turned in…like East Germany in decades past.

The same modes operandi is used because it works. Disempower the people through unemployment/poverty, ignorance, fear, propaganda and make them dependent on meager government hand-outs (of which we should be very thankful for). And have them trade liberty (and human dignity) for so-called security against enemies the latter has created whether real or contrived.

#200 Craig on 06.30.13 at 8:48 am

Oh yeah, all is well in the good old US of A

What follows is a complete roundup of U.S. retail chains that are closing underperforming stores, downsizing, or going out of business in the 2013 calendar year. Information for this 2012 Store Closing List was obtained from reports made available to the general public through news reports, corporate documents, and company press releases.

http://retailindustry.about.com/od/storeclosingsandopenings/a/All-2013-Store-Closings-US-Retail-Industry-Roundup-Stores-Downsizing-Underperforming_2.htm

#201 peter on 06.30.13 at 10:04 am

Garth, have you ever consider placing a rating system to blog comments? It wold be interesting;

#202 rumplestilken on 06.30.13 at 10:15 am

Garth, looks like gold corrected, what is your outlook in the medium to long term for the metal, rally in a couple years?

#203 Dienekes on 06.30.13 at 10:37 am

Barrick is screwed.
When they dumped Aaron Regent, I bought the next day, rode it up to 41 a share. I dumped at 39 on the way down.
I really had confidence in Munk. But no amount of knee squeazing by Munk or jaw wagging by Mulrony have been able to save them in Puru.
I think it’s telling that 800,000 ounces of gold a year have essentially been pulled off the market from Pasqua and yet the price of gold is tumbling.
The rocks in my driveway are rarer.

#204 Dienekes on 06.30.13 at 10:42 am

I should add, the gold will come out of Pasqua eventually; In a few years to help depress the, by then, already beat to hell gold price. 400 an ounce?

#205 Daisy Mae on 06.30.13 at 10:45 am

#181 Mikey the realtard: “Mikey the only boom coming is the negative balance on your overdraft account… You can stop pretending now… We all know you’re a part time nobody real estate agent…”

***************

BPOE is back?

#206 jess on 06.30.13 at 10:58 am

restylin’

Businesses become REITs to avoid taxes
sounds familar?

http://blogs.reuters.com/taxbreak/2013/04/22/essential-reading-businesses-become-reits-to-avoid-taxes-and-more/

#207 jess on 06.30.13 at 11:39 am

prisons, casinos, billboards etc

“Penn National Gaming Announces Intent to Pursue the Separation of Its Real Estate Assets from Its Operating Assets
– First Gaming Company to Split its Businesses into Two Separate Publicly Traded Companies, a Gaming Focused REIT and a Gaming Operator –

– REIT Would Own 17 Casino Facilities Encompassing Over 3,200 Acres of Land, 6.9 Million Square Feet of Building Space and 20,000 Structured Parking Spaces –

– Establishes 2013 Full Year Guidance for Penn National Gaming as well as Pro Forma Guidance for the Operating Entity, Penn National Gaming, and Publicly Traded Real Estate Investment Trust -

#208 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 06.30.13 at 11:57 am

Its 9am in Burnaby and its already too hot !

#209 MortgageBroker on 06.30.13 at 12:07 pm

#182 …its about time and there is nothing wrong with it as people are more and more used to accepting agreements via the internet or email…hopefully they add mortgages to the list soon as well.

#210 bigtown on 06.30.13 at 12:12 pm

Back in the 1940’s folks would spend about one times their income for a home; in the fifties people would pay up to two times their income for a home and even up to the eighties regular run of the mill working class paid approximately three times their annual income…so the economists might want to run the numbers to see if it is in the realm of a stable economy that people pay ten times their salary with their low-paying jobs where they have had little or no income gain in the past decade but very large DEBT added to their financial portfolios.

The theory of financial engineering from the 1990’s led us to believe we would GROW AND GROW AND GROW but now we know that it is not possible even with the low Japan style rates and after five years of emergency financial gerimandering …alas we cannot get the genie back in the bottle. Face up bank economists. You cannot give out credit up the wazoo and get that steady 60’s style healthy economy. You can’t grow an economy by growing big debt.

#211 The Prophet Elijah on 06.30.13 at 12:30 pm

Garth my bold prediction going forward with rising interest rates is we will start to see VERY noticable infaltion in soft assets, but deflation in hard assets. Any thoughts?
Rates will be rising to 2017.
Hold my hand I’m trembling.

#212 brainsail on 06.30.13 at 12:36 pm

“Analysis – The buyers are back, Canada housing market defies doomsayers”

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-buyers-back-canada-housing-143638211.html

#213 Daisy Mae on 06.30.13 at 1:03 pm

#168 Cowpoke: “What happens to most business’s when sales volume goes down and they decide to raise prices to compensate?”

***********************

Then consumers continue to cut back even more — we boycott. They need us more than we need them.

#214 :):( Ying Yang on 06.30.13 at 1:53 pm

#187 Donald Trump on 06.29.13 at 11:36 pm
I think we should merge Canada Day and the 4th of July.
Maybe meet them 1/2 way….(1+4 )/2 = Smoking Mans IQ
This will help reduce Global Warming

Add a cubed root to that equation and you are close to the IQ, he is lucky in his endeavours, no schooling just the SM insanity clause.

#215 Ronaldo on 06.30.13 at 2:36 pm

#172 Derek R – shows how much TV I watch.

#216 Macrath on 06.30.13 at 2:45 pm

Garth , FYI I`m getting
Error 404 – Page Not Found. on your link tabs, books newsroom and archives

#217 vrs on 06.30.13 at 2:50 pm

#138 @Devore

My comments were clearly directed at the host for his relentless disparaging comments on gold, and ridiculous personal attacks against dissenters he knows absolutely nothing about. You came running to your hero’s defence… and based on your comments have learned well from him (“Sneaking onto the internet on your parents computer”).

Very good with the straw man argument too (Garth’s a master)… my point was the stock went up 10% the same day Garth was beating it up, I did not say a word about the investment value of Barrick (I don’t own it, and YOU put those words in my mouth… hence the straw man analogy).

“lol” is an indication of the (at least somewhat) humorous intent of a comment… perhaps you could lighten up a bit and let old Garth fight his own battles. No worries though… you’re but one of the army of good little lap dogs that jump to his defense every time a commenter dares challenge him (you do know he only walks on water in his own mind, don’t you?)… lol!

#218 Agio on 06.30.13 at 3:10 pm

Over the past 5 years I have made a substantial amount of useless fiat currency selling gold and silver to many a conspiracy theory the world is ending folks such as the ones who rage on this blog.
The very few, and there were few who asked my opinion on the metals at their highs did of course not heed my advice to sell as the fools on the radio and the internet were trumpeting 2500 an oz for gold and 250 or more an oz for silver and that fit their world is collapsing fiat currency is useless beliefs.
Belief is like faith; you can’t combat it with facts so I just kept selling until the believers ran out of money. Didn’t take long. Then the semi true believers who dove in late to make a million and retire had to sell back to me or others like me when both got pounded in 2011, especially silver and more useless fiat currency I did acquire.
At the high I was shorting both, especially silver. Naked sexy futures contracts in useless fiat currency. Course most of you true believers don’t have enough of that useless fiat crap to buy one contract but you should have at the very least sold your stash of REAL touchy feely metal. Instead you ignored advice given on this blog and everywhere else by intelligent successful business folk and you stuck to your beliefs. Commendable but stupid.
If the economies of the world do indeed collapse how does it end well for all of you? It doesn’t. Most of you are like the end of the worlder survivalist crowd; somehow it has a happy ending for you because you have a bunker, dry goods, camo undies, attack gerbils, some precious metals and in many cases a lot of guns. All of which will not save you from an attack chopper or a nuke or total anarchy. I wonder how many Syrians are kissing gold n silver this Canada Day Weekend.
Reasoning with folks like this is akin to debating with a born again Christian. Once you believe God has chatted with you directly it’s pretty hard to be open to any other ideas. However all are basing their actions on a belief, absolutely zero empirical evidence. It’s convenient and feels good but it usually sucks in the real world.
So, look for gold to hit 1000 and silver, well that lil puppy could go to 15 or less if the herd continues to panic and they probably will in between dead cat bounces which if you were smart you’d sell into.
Then as history always repeats, buy back in when this PM bear market oversells itself and pat yourself on the back for being smart. I’ll be waiting for ya 8AM to 5PM Monday-Friday.

#219 Panhead on 06.30.13 at 3:38 pm

#183 Donald Trump on 06.29.13 at 10:27 pm
Re RONA

In North part of Richmond BC, they built a brand new store in a poor location that shut down after 3 years….and building still sits empty.

———————————————————–

Don’t know if it’s true or not but heard Rona closed this store before the Olympics to avoid paying heavy taxes imposed by Richmond to pay for their venue.

#220 Timing is Everything on 06.30.13 at 3:48 pm

Just ‘slightly’ off topic…

‘Ed Snowden, NSA, and fairy tales a child could see through’

http://tinyurl.com/n8wmgsf

http://tinyurl.com/ozkp5co
—————————————————
http://tinyurl.com/kqrto3f

#221 Ronaldo on 06.30.13 at 3:56 pm

#134 VRS – it would not surprise me in the least to hear that China Investment Corp. comes up with 1 billion or more to buy into the ailing Barrick as they did with Teck back in July of 09. What better time to invest when the prices are down by 2/3 or more. Barrick currently trading at .7 of book.

Teck for example, had their shares drop from $48.66 in July of 08 to 3.71 by March of 09. CIC came up with a 1.74 billion and purchased 101.3 million shares in July of 09 at 17.21 giving them 17.5% stake in Teck. Then they saw the price of shares rise to 63.84 by July of 2011. I hope they took some money off the table at that time since the shares are now down considerably as well.

As in 09, we are going to hear a lot more about M&A in the weeks to come in the resource sector.

The winners in this latest paper takedown in the pm’s are China, India and many other eastern countries. The west is once again giving away their resources at dirt cheap prices.

#222 JimH on 06.30.13 at 4:18 pm

#217 Agio
Great post! Laughed til I cried!
What made it even better for me was the fact that I know a gold/silver trader in the next State who has been in the bullion/coin game for years and years. The back of his business card reads;

“Please don’t tell my mother I do this for a living!
She thinks I play piano in a whorehouse.”

#223 bob on 06.30.13 at 4:31 pm

snowden leaks show nsa hacked european beaurocrats, shows how deep the rabbit hole goes…the whole terrorism excuse is a crock..it’s about power and control..create the danger and instill fear in the masses then provide the sollution whilst eliminating freedom. it’s easy to see how it works but most of us are pounding the treadmill of life searching for happiness by accumulating stuff with little time to reflect on the big picture. Maybe snowden will shine a bright light on truth for all to see. Let’s see how this plays out.

#224 Smoking Man on 06.30.13 at 5:14 pm

Ha had my hockey playing killer alpha sons on the lake, they cried like little pigs when I hit a wake at about 60 mph.

Was hoping the smoking man gene would have been past down….

Mother’s kids… :(

#225 jess on 06.30.13 at 5:25 pm

Risk knows no geographic boundary. No matter where Wall Street’s megabanks do their risky trading and investments, they will bring those failures back to the US for the US taxpayer to pay their bills. As detailed in the attached Power Point, the sad truth is that Wall Street’s global dealer banks are so big and so sprawling, it is only a matter of time before there are more disasters that require more U.S. bailouts. They are structured & staffed by design for regulatory arbitrage & today’s virtual markets, where massive amounts of business can be shifted from one place in the globe to another with a mere keystroke, make that easy and inevitable. That’s why strong and effective cross border regulation must be put in place without delay.

People must remember that the US taxpayers and government bailed out the global financial system in 2008-2009. No other country did. Yes, some bailed out their own banks, but only the US bailed out the world: 17 of AIG’s 22 counterparties were foreign banks and 9 of the 20 largest users of the Federal Reserve Board’s bailout programs were foreign banks. In addition, the Fed had to pump $1.9 trillion into foreign swap lines in the 30 days after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and $5.4 trillion in the 90 days after its collapse. And, that’s just the tip of the iceberg of everything the US and US taxpayers did to bailout the global financial system in 2008-2009.

12trillion
Why did the US government do this?
http://www.bettermarkets.com/blogs/us-must-regulate-wall-streets-high-risk-global-derivatives-bets-now#.UcjJRzTvhcY

#226 Tony on 06.30.13 at 5:29 pm

Re: #210 The Prophet Elijah on 06.30.13 at 12:30 pm

I see you’re another one that falls for the malarkey coming out of America. Mortgage rates in Canada will be back down to 2.89 percent for five years next month. As for America interest rates will make new lows this year as America admits they’ve never been out of recession. Variable rates are what to be in if you have a mortgage.

#227 eaglebay - Parksville Victoria on 06.30.13 at 6:27 pm

#153 Daisy Mae

“You are correct. The officers would have no choice. Unsecured firearms are illegal.”
______________
My friend went home today in High River.
He found his gun case laying on the floor, empty.
When he left the house his hunting rifle was in the case which was hidden at the back of a closet behind a whole bunch of clothes.

You people don’t have a clue, do gooders.

#228 Form Man on 06.30.13 at 7:51 pm

#196 Craig

My understanding is the police were ordered to enter the houses looking for bodies. Anything illegal found would if course be dealt with .

#127 eagle bay

Re-read your post . Your friend did not have his firearms legally stored……..as a gun owner, you should familiarize yourself with the law………..otherwise you might look like an idiot.

#229 Joe on 06.30.13 at 8:05 pm

198 Rosie.
Big difference between futures and physical eh.

#230 Dan Braniff on 07.01.13 at 7:25 am

Canada Day should remind us of our debts of gratitude. Pension income splitting would not have been achieved without the initiatives of Garth Turner. Pensioners across this country need to remember your creative idea to capture Parliament by holding the “Pension Tension” conference within the parliament’s own Committee Room on Oct 3rd, 2006. We conquered without firing a single shot.
On behalf of Canadians we thank you Garth Turner for your leadership on this issue!
Dan Braniff
Founder Common Front for Pension Splitting

#231 Eaglebay - Parksville Victoria on 07.01.13 at 9:08 am

#228 Form Man on 06.30.13 at 7:51 pm
#127 eagle bay

“Re-read your post . Your friend did not have his firearms legally stored……..as a gun owner, you should familiarize yourself with the law………..otherwise you might look like an idiot.”
__________________
Stick to your cement.
Research the facts and then comment.
Sour puss.