Mr. Wonderful

DISABLED1

I told ya so. Seldom do I use such immodest words, but there comes a time when even I must acknowledge my omniscience. Like my brother Ted says, if I were a little more humble, I’d be perfect.

First, don’t bet against America. Every time I’ve made that caution over the past three years the gold nuts, Yank-bashers and doomers have jumped down my throat claiming US unemployment is 24%, half the country is on food stamps, the stock market’s a giant ponzi, and without central bank stimulus it would just be another Zimbabwe. But with iPads and iPhones. And, of course, Beyoncé.

Well, suck it up. America is back. Not only is the Dow Jones up 19.42% this year and the S&P 500 ahead 19.1%, but corporate profitability has remained robust and employment is rising month after month after month. Markets have obviously benefitted from central bank policies keeping bonds on a leash and rates in the basement, but they also reflect an economy which has crawled back from a mauling four years ago. Like there was any doubt.

Still more to come. There will be no recession in the US this year or next or likely the one after that. Consumer confidence just hit a five-year high, largely because people can see more and better jobs being created. So many new vehicles are being sold the car companies just cancelled summer break. Within months, maybe weeks, the US Fed will start easing back on the stimulus spending. Markets will correct (of course), but as billions of worried dollars find their way back into growth assets, it’s hard to see downturns as anything but a chance to go shopping.

Still hiding in the orange guy’s shorts? Only you are to blame.

Speaking of interest rates, more abject humility. I told you they have but one direction in which to move, and that it would be the bond markets – not central banks – making it happen. History will prove I’m right, and the myopic weenies who say rates will fester at historic levels forever, wrong. Hell, it’s already happening.

As stocks go up, bonds wobble. Yesterday, for example, US 10-year Treasuries (the safest thing in the world) had their worst day in almost two years, with prices falling and yields jumping to the highest levels of the year.

Why? Because things are getting less scary. And as the American economy revives (see above), it means the Fed can wind down bond purchases which have kept rates artificially depressed. So, Treasury yields have risen a dramatic 50 points since the beginning of the month, and were pushed further on news of rising confidence and a real estate renaissance.

Whazzat, you say? Didn’t Garth two years ago tell us to buy America and sell Canada?

In fact, I did. Since then housing starts have rebounded back above the million-per-year level. Resale homes are selling at the best clip since 2006. In the past year Phoenix houses have gained 22% in value and Vegas is up 20%. Even Miami properties are worth 19% more. This week the Shiller-Case S&P index recorded the largest year/year gain since silly bankers were handing out Ninja loans to Oakies buying McMansions.

Nationally, house prices gained 10.9% in the past year. Yes, prices are still down 25% from the bubbly peak, but recently values have been rising about 1% a month. Sales are up. Prices up. Construction up. Demand is steady and a huge whack of the inventory of distressed properties has been absorbed by the vulture class, people who’ve made solid capital gains which are likely to double over the next four years.

So much for the housing ‘dead cat bounce’ the America haters on this pathetic blog said explained the numbers. Because if you want to see a true fetid feline, just head north of the border.

Canada’s third-largest market is the antithesis of what’s happening in resurgent US cities. Here, thanks to blogger ‘Patiently Waiting’ are the tell-all numbers for sales of SFHs in all of Vancouver and the Lower Mainland (Van and Fraser Valley boards):

In the last 30 days there have been 969 deals. That’s a 53% drop from the same period last year (2,056), a 61% decline from 2011 (2,510), a fall of 58% from 2010 (2,300), 63% less than in troubled 2009 (2,599), and 49% fewer than in 2008 (1,918).

“Despite what the main stream media is telling people, the real estate boards’ own computer data demonstrate that sales are currently still trending significantly lower than previous years, as we move further into the 2013 year,” our correspondent reports.

By the way, sales year/year are down in Halifax, Montreal, Toronto, London, Winnipeg, Regina, Edmonton and Vancouver. Every market is unique. And all real estate is local. But this was not the spring tens of thousands of emaciated realtors were hoping for.

But it’s the spring I forecast.

Now, wanna hear about gold? Forget it. Even I have limits.

204 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 05.28.13 at 8:37 pm

Where is Elfin Diatay

#2 None on 05.28.13 at 8:40 pm

All real estate is not local – Canadian real estate as a whole is in a bad way, some worse than others, but RE is not entirely local. Please quit saying that.

It’s local. It’s local. It’s local. — Garth

#3 Patient in Richmond on 05.28.13 at 8:42 pm

I have seen several houses in Richmond BC that have dropped their price by 100.000-200.000 $ over the weekend . They are still overpriced but also have been on the market for almost a year now . A sign of the times ……

#4 Robert Nelson on 05.28.13 at 8:50 pm

@Patient in Richmond: Yep. And in parts of Vancouver — I’m thinking the Main St/Cambie area — prices have hardly budged. So real estate isn’t just coal. It’s micro-local. While Vancouver is down, certain areas have, so far, been pretty much insulated from the downturn. (Disclosure: I’m a bear, and would welcome a serious correction.)

#5 JSS on 05.28.13 at 8:50 pm

Is it too late to dip your foot into some US equity ETFs?

#6 Smoking Man on 05.28.13 at 8:53 pm

Vindication for Garth…. The problem, very little retail money in the markets.. Bankers win again

Wo hoodoo. What a sell off today on long bonds. Definitely puts pressure on fixed rate mortgage.

BOC announcement tomorrow… Carney last stand..
Could be my last stand, bought Cable sold USDCAD.
OUCH

I REFUSE TO LOSE HANGING TOUGH. now if the US GDP is positive going to get crushed… 2 months worth of profit gone in seconds… All the same it’s fun….

But the little un news of the day, Israel going to attack Russian shipments of s-rockets the to Syria… What?
Interesting.

Hum…

#7 T.O. & GTA SFH bidding wars debunked May 28 on 05.28.13 at 8:55 pm

http://recharts.blogspot.ca/2013/05/to-bidding-wars-debunked-may-28.html

http://recharts.blogspot.ca/2013/05/gta-sfh-bidding-wars-debunked-may-28.html

#8 Grantmi on 05.28.13 at 8:56 pm

There’s a new home in the South Surrey area ALREADY drop from $1.7M to $1.4.

$300K folks.

I expect it to come down another $100K next month.. I think the builder is panicking!!

#9 Waterloo Resident on 05.28.13 at 8:57 pm

MORTGAGE RATES WILL BE 0.5% higher by August:

Here’s the news straight from the horse’s mouth:

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-bond-sell-off-is-for-real-2013-5

Quote: “Our model estimates (and, consistently, our forecasts) show 10-year Treasuries reaching 2.5% in the second half of this year.”

- So basically, that means going from 2.0% to 2.5%. And since the mortgage market is based on the bond market, that means going up an equal 0.5% also.

#10 AK on 05.28.13 at 8:57 pm

5 ETFs To Buy Before The Fed Cuts QE

5 ETFs

#11 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.28.13 at 8:58 pm

Who knew that Vancouver RE was priced based on shares of Apple? (or, maybe in gold bars?)

#12 Derek on 05.28.13 at 8:59 pm

Hi Garth, any chance of some specific comments on sask anytime? Specifically, with a 25% sales decline y/y, how long until the prices start to follow? So far still going up. Would love some insight.

#13 Mocha on 05.28.13 at 9:00 pm

Prices down in central BC.
And yes, I would be interested in your opinion on gold. I’ll be waiting for about 6 months to a year after the end of QE before I seriously start to consider it.

When you do, lie down until it passes. — Garth

#14 The American on 05.28.13 at 9:05 pm

Garth, as an American who reads your blog every day, I need to say that haters are going to try to rip your “buy-America, sell-Canada” economic *theory* apart. I’m glad you picked this subject, especially this evening. If memory serves, you have outperformed your original predications. Give ‘em hell.

#15 Joe Calgary on 05.28.13 at 9:06 pm

Funny that you write this post now, about a yr ago you wrote a post about me wanting to buy a 80-120K townhouse in FL and you advised against it saying investing the money was a better idea, and that i would get a biker tenant renting it. Now I would have seen solid cap gains and probably double my money in next 4 yrs.

The Dow is ahead 27.09% in the last 12 months. And no bikers. Figure it out. — Garth

#16 Chickenlittle on 05.28.13 at 9:10 pm

#11 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.28.13 at 8:58 pm
“Who knew that Vancouver RE was priced based on shares of Apple? (or, maybe in gold bars?)”

No, it’s based on shares of Starbucks.

#17 TurnerNation on 05.28.13 at 9:10 pm

Realtors in a panic – from the local “Rockstar” kando realty firm – have taken to offering free coffee – from the local hipster joint – from a table, out-front.

Yeah that’s right, I like mine double-double. You’ll be needing that practice.
(One good urn deserves another?)

#18 TurnerNation on 05.28.13 at 9:14 pm

Hmm Kevin O’Sneery might not like that title’s unauthorized usage here.

#19 The Duke on 05.28.13 at 9:30 pm

Hey Garth,

You’re probably right that things will improve for the next three years in the states. What happens when the USA falls off the fracking treadmill and everyone realises that cheap energy is gone and the end of industrialization comes swiftly after that?

Those suburban homes in phoenix will be road kill. Nice tip. Energy depletion is going to kill the economy at some point. Why do you rarely bring that up|?

#20 Gg on 05.28.13 at 9:32 pm

Take the $80billion in stimulus away today and the Dow would go to 4000. Any hint of exit and the market will drop 15%.

A recovery at o% rates 5 years on and only 2% growth? We have seen this story before.

#21 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.28.13 at 9:32 pm

@ #16 Chickenlittle on 05.28.13 at 9:10 pm
#11 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.28.13 at 8:58 pm
“Who knew that Vancouver RE was priced based on shares of Apple? (or, maybe in gold bars?)”

No, it’s based on shares of Starbucks.
____________________

The city may be powered by caffeine, but SBUX is up 18% over the past 1 year, and Van RE certainly is not.

Maybe something like Second Cup? (down 40% YOY)
http://www.google.com/finance?q=TSE%3ASCU

#22 Gg on 05.28.13 at 9:34 pm

Phoenix houses have gained 22% in value and Vegas is up 20,,,,,

Again if the fed wasn’t buying 40b in MBS things would no b here.

#23 garths more handsome brother Ted on 05.28.13 at 9:35 pm

Hey Garth. Thanks for naming this post after me.

#24 Marco on 05.28.13 at 9:35 pm

you tellus not to trust Canadian real estate numbers but they neverlie or hide things in the usa?

#25 oops on 05.28.13 at 9:35 pm

and the WHO is scared silly that we have this really really nasty virus that kills half of the folks it infects, makes SARS look like a Nancy, and they have no clue how you get it and where it originates…
so how much should I allocate in my portfolio to the bank of under my mattress…

#26 OttawaBubble on 05.28.13 at 9:37 pm

“By the way, sales year/year are down in Halifax, Montreal, Toronto, London, Winnipeg, Regina, Edmonton and Vancouver.”

Ottawa is notably missing from this list. April averages prices were at an all-time high. Anecdotally, still occasional stories of bidding wars, and plenty of sold signs in central neighborhoods.

OREB does not provide listings data (how can one assess any market without both demand and supply data?) but Ben R. indicates that new April listings were a record. This can be qualified (if not quantified) by looking at the concentration of red MLS dots in the suburbs (Barrhaven, Kanata, Orleans) and condos in all areas.

So, Garth, is Ottawa different (especially central SFHs) or just lagging other markets with increasing risk of a bigger fall??

Ottawa sales were up 0.03 per cent. No, not different. — Garth

#27 Derek R on 05.28.13 at 9:38 pm

#2 None on 05.28.13 at 8:40 pm wrote:
All real estate is not local – Canadian real estate as a whole is in a bad way, some worse than others, but RE is not entirely local.

Real Estate is local. Mortgages are national. Most people need both to buy a house. So both affect house prices. But Real Estate is local.

#28 Devore on 05.28.13 at 9:45 pm

#19 The Duke

End of the world as we know it in three years. You heard it here first. Do you guys all read the same newsletter?

#29 Chickenlittle on 05.28.13 at 9:47 pm

#21 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.28.13 at 9:32 pm
“Maybe something like Second Cup? (down 40% YOY)”

SC needs more hipsters or philosophy majors to legitimize it as a real alternative to Starbucks. Starbucks is hip, SC needs a new hip.

#30 Jeannie on 05.28.13 at 9:50 pm

This is not unexpected news…we had a ‘heads-up’ from Garth from way back when.
Against the advice of the doom and gloomer ‘experts’ who’ve been predicting the imminent collapse of the U.S. dollar, I exchanged my loonies for U.S. greenbacks some time ago.

#31 AK on 05.28.13 at 9:53 pm

More and more million-dollar homes being snapped up in Las Vegas

Las Vegas’ luxury housing market

#32 johndoe on 05.28.13 at 9:53 pm

Garth,

I really wish you were right. It is way more complex than you present it. We live on borrowed time until all saving evaporate due to hidden inflation and ZIRP . And then what?

You really sound like wall stream pumper on fed’s payroll which I know you are not.

As for gold: it has been money for 5 000 years. And neither you or Big Ben can change that. Lenin said that washrooms floors would be made from gold.

#33 Old Man on 05.28.13 at 10:00 pm

#15 Joe Calgary – do not knock the bikers as had this cottage to rent out years ago, so did a deal with two married couples from Michigan, and met them with the keys, as they were paying in cash. They rolled up in Harleys wearing colours – Hells Angels -, so said do want any problems, and they said neither do we, so here is the cash as all will be cool, as we want peace and quite to hang out in private, so say nothing.

#34 johndoe on 05.28.13 at 10:01 pm

the Fed can wind down bond purchases which have kept rates artificially depressed
—————————————————

Looking forward to it. This is exactly like Marc the ‘Talk Carney increasing interest rates in Canada.

Stopping Fed’s QA and Increase of interest rates means government default. It is that simple. They are boxed to continue QE to infinity (or currency collapse)

As Mar Fauber famously said: you keep your dollars, I will keep my gold and we will see which one goes to zero first.

#35 Shawn on 05.28.13 at 10:11 pm

Great Minds think alike…

Good call by Garth.

And remember Warren Buffett’s Buy America. I am. editorial in the New York Times of October 2008?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html?_r=0

Actually he wrote all of that EXCEPT the headline. He did not tell anyone to buy America but he pointed out that he was doing so and that Americas best days were ahead. But he said he was not predicting the bottom of the market.

He was bashed by clueless fools for being too early as the bottom did not arrive until March 9, 2009.

He has been proven correct (what a surprise)

Rule Number 1: Always assume that Buffett is correct

Rule Number 2: Don’t forget rule number 1.

#36 kc on 05.28.13 at 10:18 pm

“In fact, I did. Since then housing starts have rebounded back above the million-per-year level. ”

Yes, however they are going back down. One thing that is NOT mentioned in these numbers are that they are mostly multi-family dwellings, as, condo buildings and cement boxes.

I am in the lumber/forest industry and we are still shipping China, (which is cooling off) very little to the states and our supplies that go into single family houses are laying off employees in the mills. Shutting down in June is NEVER heard of. We should be full out balls to the wall busy… sales guys report crickets… 2005 will not be returning any time soon.

here is a bloomberg page.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-16/housing-starts-in-u-s-decreased-in-april-to-five-month-low.html

cheers

to the “american”

14 The American on 05.28.13 at 9:05 pm I miss not reading your posts, i don’t read on here like I used to. what city are you in and can you tell me if the housing starts are booming (single family or are they condos)? thanks

#37 Mr. Wonderful — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate – The Affluent Boomer on 05.28.13 at 10:18 pm

[...] via Mr. Wonderful — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate. [...]

#38 Cici on 05.28.13 at 10:23 pm

#6 Smoking Man

Yes, doesn’t it make perfect sense? If you were Israel and already had border issues, would you seriously want Russian rockets adding to your problems?

#39 Blacksheep on 05.28.13 at 10:25 pm

Thanks S. Man, never a big Floyd fan. 10 min. in and it looks interesting. Will watch it at least once.

#40 Arse on 05.28.13 at 10:29 pm

Yankee Doodle Dandy !!!!

#41 45north on 05.28.13 at 10:30 pm

talking about Vancouver and the lower mainland: In the last 30 days there have been 969 deals. That’s a 53% drop from the same period last year (2,056)

that’s collapse.

I wonder if the Royal Bank has one set of rules for Toronto but another for Vancouver?

Best Place on Earth is gone, gone with the wind

#42 gogo on 05.28.13 at 10:30 pm

Garth, show us how much you made when you were right and how much you lost when you were wrong.
Even the clock that doesn’t work is right twice a day.

#43 DaleFromCalgary on 05.28.13 at 10:30 pm

True USA unemployment rate is the U6 rate (those on benefits plus those whose benefits expired plus those never eligible for benefits plus discouraged workers), not the U3 rate (new unemployment claims). Also, labour participation rates have fallen as people give up and take early retirement or fake disability.

Current American house prices are correlated with MBS buybacks by the Federal Reserve. No Wall Street bank is building up any portfolio of MBSes; they are waiting in line to dump them on the Fed. The recent bond yield spike will become a moonshot if the Fed tries to stop buying MBSes.

Frac/horizontal wells are six to ten times more expensive than conventional vertical boreholes, and deplete 90% the first year. Fortunately because of Peak Oil the WTI price is staying in the $85 to $95 range to make it profitable. I’m glad I have my income from oil, not flipping houses or renting condos.

#44 Ralph Cramdown on 05.28.13 at 10:31 pm

Altogther, doomers and goldbugs! You all know the words:

Hoardin’ rocks in the hot sun
I fought the Fed and the Fed won
I fought the Fed and the Fed won
I thought gold was money; now I’ve got none
I fought the Fed and the Fed won
I fought the Fed and the Fed won

#45 Sebee on 05.28.13 at 10:33 pm

Smoking Man,

How do you inflate salaries like you say yesterday without all the other consequence dominos?

#46 Yitzhak Rabin on 05.28.13 at 10:36 pm

You should stick to basing Canadian real estate and mortgage brokers.

These same “facts” that you point out were also in place in 2007 when the US economy first started going into recession.

It’s amusing. Here you bash the FIRE economy for thinking real estate is a great investment simply because it’s going up. Yet if the DOW and S&P rise despite the shaky fundamentals, it’s time to party like it’s 1999.

The Fed Exit strategy is all a bluff. Why do you think we had QE1, QE2 and QE3? If it worked we would only need it once. The monetary heroin will destroy the American standard of living in the long run.

The Federal Reserve cannot move from the biggest buyer of treasuries to the largest seller. Even if they stop the bond buying, the rest of the world has to pick up the slack. No one is going to clip coupons on the 30 year treasury at 3% until maturity.

The US Government can’t afford higher interest rates. Neither can the US housing market.

Look at Japan to see what awaits the US. Collapsing currency, inflation, perpetual monetary and fiscal intervention (that doesn’t work) and soaring bond yields.

Remember $147 dollar oil in 2008? It is now the most expensive in Japan since that time thanks to their idiotic central bank.

#47 Boombust on 05.28.13 at 10:36 pm

“America haters”?

Well, they ARE a brute force in the world today, acting as the world’s biggest cop. Why so?

I’d hate to have been in Baghdad in 2003 or Panama City in 1989…

It’s a small wonder to me why they are so disdained world-wide.

#48 Piccaso on 05.28.13 at 10:38 pm

Out of respect for our ever increasing population of immigrants, this is the first in a series of language videos committed to teaching us and showing us the beauty of their language and culture.

DELETED

#49 Retired WI Boomer on 05.28.13 at 10:38 pm

Garth-

I was wonderring why my account balance keeps going UP while I have already “harvested” profits of $74,858.22 thus far this year. Holy buckets! I kinda don’t want to think about having to pay some TAXES at years end, but anytime one gets an 19% pop with nary half a year in, one best harvest some of those earnings. Things have been known to “turn” at least for a brief breather (correction).

Thus far, I am pleased with my allocation.

My financial guy’s numbers are nearly as good.
(My fees are much lower than his).

2013 turning out to be a rather decent year. Retired, NO debt, healthy, and able to share my good fortune as I wish

Does it get better? How??

#50 Dean Mason on 05.28.13 at 10:40 pm

In 2000,U.S. 30 year bond 6.74%,2007 5.55%,2013 3.317%. These are all highs for the year . See a pattern here,with every big financial crash,economic downturn,higher unemployment,federal reserve intervention and real estate,stock market bubbles there is always lower interest rates and bond yields.

The increases are from the bottom of the next barrel.The interest rate barrel gets a new bottom each time.Until we see 9% or more bond yields we are not reaching higher highs in interest rates and bond yields.It’s all a barrel of monkeys.

#51 Sebee on 05.28.13 at 10:43 pm

By the way…did you guys hear? Cold fusion is real!
Rossi’s LENR third party verified. What happens next?

#52 KG on 05.28.13 at 10:45 pm

Now I understand the whole thing, it is not the HAM but the CGM (corrupt (at all levels) government money) that has been driving up the home prices.

#53 Elmer on 05.28.13 at 10:47 pm

Hey Garth, remember how you said not to buy individual stocks? Well I bought TSLA and made out like a bandit, so ha! I told YOU so.

#54 coastal on 05.28.13 at 10:49 pm

Not to forget US housing starts are well below the bottom of the 82 crash and even more so the early 90′s. Dead cat bounce it is til proven otherwise. Consumer confidence numbers were for long term, not the present.

You guys just can’t handle it, can you? — Garth

#55 Uh Oh Canada on 05.28.13 at 10:50 pm

And now an update from my local hood:

Prices for SFH are noticeably down. I am looking at a radius of 30 minutes north, south, east and west. Further to each end houses are actually down the most. I can’t believe I’m actually seeing this with my own eyes. Been checking out MLS since 2009 and this is the first time it’s going down, not up.

#56 Sacola on 05.28.13 at 10:52 pm

I disagree with your assessment of the U.S.. The consumer is not the main concern but rather the fiscal and monetary policy. The U.S. is printing far too much money and I believe the shift in interest rates has more to do with their amount of debt. I believe we will one day wake up and the debt market will dictate interest rates for the U.S. Their budget deficit is unable to withstand a rise in interest rates which will put more downward pressure on their dollar and create a further risk premium on their debt.

No matter which way one bends the numbers, the U.S. is essentially bankrupt. If the Greenback is declining, why would one want to place CND $ into U.S. securities. There are a few that are worthy, but the majority will create opportunity costs.

No offence Garth, but your train of thought towards the U.S. is a little old school. They are no longer the economic powerhouse they once were.

My portfolio disagrees. — Garth

#57 Barry in Pickering on 05.28.13 at 10:56 pm

))) Didn’t Garth two years ago tell us to buy America and sell Canada?

Since Canada real estate prices have RISEN 6% in the last 2 years, the correct call was buy America, BUY Canada.

That was believable. — Garth

#58 dosouth on 05.28.13 at 11:02 pm

Just couldn’t help but jump on the band wagon – dateline Nanaimo, B.C.

Assessed – $632k, renovation gone bad and been on sale for 1 year give or take, not finished. Priced this time last year, same condition @ over $620k.

Latest price drop yesterday to $399k – almost price of the land it is on and that is all it is worth…

http://tinyurl.com/ohqad42

#59 Swift on 05.28.13 at 11:03 pm

Garth,

Do you think the TSX will be higher or lower a year from now?

Thanks

What do I win? — Garth

#60 Shawn on 05.28.13 at 11:06 pm

Investments in Stocks and houses are NOT investments in dollars.

#4 JohnDoe said:

As Mar Fauber famously said: you keep your dollars, I will keep my gold and we will see which one goes to zero first.

******************************************

But I think Marc Faber may realize that while money invested in a bank account or in bonds is an investment in dollars, investments in stocks and houses are no more investments in dollars than is an investment in Gold.

All investments are measured in dollars. But only cash and monetary dollar investments are investments IN dollars.

And anyhow how has Dr. Doom done since 2008.? Not so well I would imagine if he is still doomin’

Gold is NEVER going to zero. Neither is the DOW and anyone who thinks it is is sadly misguided.

There were some morons who effectively bet Warren Buffett in 2007 and 2008 or so that stock indexes would be lower in about 2020 than in 2007 or 2008. Since then we had to listen to morons go on about Buffett investing in derivatives (as he always did) despite warning how dangerous they were (which they are in the hands of morons). Buffett knew the odds of his winning that bet were not 100% but were WAY in his favor. Plus the morons paid him a big premium up front which he has been free to invest ever since.

Rule number 1: (oh never mind, one cannot convince anyone who refuses to see.)

#61 Smoking Man on 05.28.13 at 11:11 pm

#38 Cici on 05.28.13 at 10:23 pm#6
Smoking ManYes, doesn’t it make perfect sense? If you were Israel and already had border issues, would you seriously want Russian rockets adding to your problems?

……….

I’m an individual, don’t give a flying F about nations, religions, tribes,community, fitting in, saying the right thing for pats on the back or not to offend. I am my own god…. I got eat so I look for opportunities take risks and exploit the weak.

I am free and a free thinker… I don’t self censor, I call it like I see it..hence deletes….

It’s called freedom.. Freedom of mind and soul..

Absolutely the key to deep happiness….

#62 Smoking Man on 05.28.13 at 11:17 pm

#39 Blacksheep on 05.28.13 at 10:25 pm

Thanks S. Man, never a big Floyd fan. 10 min. in and it looks interesting. Will watch it at least once.
……………..

It’s amazing with every view, you find something new.

It’s manifesto in stealth…..

Waters is a genius……

#63 Smoking Man on 05.28.13 at 11:30 pm

CICI is it my fault I landed on this planet with superior Intelagents, so I can’t spell, a fish can’t climb a tree, those that rally behind a belief, a religion, a nation, are slaves regardless of how luck treated them….

I’m a Smoking Man, the outsider the freeman.

I look in the mirror buck naked every day after my shower and say myself, you still got game, your awesome, let’s have fun with the idiots.

And they don’t start off as idiots, other idiots convert them into copies of themselves, damn teachers..

#64 not 1st on 05.28.13 at 11:38 pm

Garth, the U.S will meet its mea culpa soon enough, you just haven’t give it enough of a time horizon yet. You bleated about Canadian RE for 5 years before your prognosis came true. Give the U.S the same time and I guarantee you all chickens will have come home to roost by then.

#65 Notta Sheeple on 05.28.13 at 11:51 pm

“….Nationally, house prices gained 10.9% in the past year. Yes, prices are still down 25% from the bubbly peak, but recently values have been rising about 1% a month……”
========================

Why the sudden euphoria over rapidly dropping housing affordability?

American incomes are once again not about to keep with rising home prices, yet we’re all supposed to be celebrating the fact that Americans will once again be throttling back on consumer spending in order to service their biggest rapidly increasing monthly expense: a mortgage.

Meanwhile American jobs will continue to be outsourced to countries whose citizen don’t need high wages to pay for half-million dollars bungalows.

Didn’t we see the ending of this movie once before?

Or is the whole idea to once again regurgitate a brand new housing pyramid scheme of paper wealth for a new generation of wrinklies, ignoring the fact that their grand children will never be able to afford a home?

#66 GARTH VADAR on 05.28.13 at 11:51 pm

LOL. JUST STOP TALKING SMACK ABOUT IT LIKE WERE ALL RETARDS…….KEEP IT UP & YOU’LL BE WITHOUT A SITE AND FACE A HUGE BACKLASH SOON G.

YOUR A 2 FACE INVESTOR IT IT, SO CUT THE B.S. & TREAT EVERY INVESTOR WITH RESPECT. YOUR THE SMALL GUY ON MY BLOCK TRUST ME.

Don’t you just love the Internet? — Garth

#67 Cici on 05.28.13 at 11:52 pm

What are you talking about? Pats on backs? Free-thinking, non-religious, master of destiny, blah, blah, whatever.

You asked WHY Israel would have an issue with the Russian rockets and I told you plainly and simply why.

It’s called basic strategy and self-preservation, and I’m sure you are not beyond that, no matter how great you think you are.

#68 Smoking Man on 05.28.13 at 11:52 pm

The way the world works Cici , got a handful of gazilioars all over, they have monetary interests, regardless of what hat they wear a they control their cattle with education, media and the schooled emotion of fitting in is good.

From there they will scarface you children fighting there battle vs the opponents cause you bought into the plot.

And think that there is a benefit waiting for you.

No saine human gives with out a pay off.. What ever you tribe, your host nation tells you..

You are first. Have a shower and enjoy your freedom.

#69 Nemesis on 05.28.13 at 11:56 pm

“America is back.”

Nice try but, actually… Nope.

http://tinyurl.com/opuo8b6

#70 VT on 05.29.13 at 12:03 am

Click the link to check out the spin from Remax realtor Domenic Calla.

================
================

My Response to Market Crash Theorists
May 28, 2013 – Updated: May 28, 2013

After taking a new client out to view some properties I got an e-mail a day later for this client stating that they spoke with their financial adviser and their adviser had advised them to “wait for the market correction in Toronto. He said there’s a 14 year cycle and that Toronto is now going on its 19th year without a correction.” The financial adviser was from a City about an hour and a half outside of Toronto and they worked for one of the large banks. I decided to blog my repsonse because I get messages like this often and people always ask me my opinion on the market and if its true there is going to be a correction.

So here is my response:
http://www.mynewtorontohome.com/blog/p/my-response-to-market-crash-theorists

#71 Christopher Lackey on 05.29.13 at 12:16 am

The truth is, no one knows the end to this unprecedented, fed bond buying movie. I can call it that because it is.

Yes, if you follow the business news and the markets the consensus is that the markets have become addicted to the stimulus and have crested because of it.

But Garth points out something very relevant repeatedly. These companies are making a lot of money. Record cash piles, record profits. Ben Bernanke doesn’t control that.

Where to park your money? Bonds will drop when rates rise. Cheap stocks are hard to find when indexes break new records every day. Savings accounts pay nothing. Metals are a crapshoot. Irish real estate is 50% off peak bubble, thank god for our commodities.

Hedge your bets and remember there is no return without taking some risks

#72 Darth Vader on 05.29.13 at 12:25 am

LOL! “I must acknowledge my omniscience. Like my brother Ted says, if I were a little more humble, I’d be perfect.” Much as I like most of what you say Garth, this is way over the top. Get a grip.

#73 New on 05.29.13 at 12:44 am

#58dosouth, that lot doesn’t worth $399K, it worths $80K at best. So, $300K for an unfinished house without a bathroom? What a deal!

#74 coastal on 05.29.13 at 12:46 am

You guys just can’t handle it, can you? — Garth

You mean when the other side of the story is told? The job numbers are misleading as well. Employee hours worked are at recession levels of several years back. Have to look inside the headlines to see the reality.

#75 Dale on 05.29.13 at 12:53 am

#46
Great post. You are 100% correct. The FED will not and cannot exit QE. Low rates are here to stay, otherwise we’ll have a government default.

Gg earlier also made some very real and honest points. I wouldn’t invest in this central banks sponsored stock market with my neighbors money – it will come crashing down at some point, all the way to ZERO.

#76 Dienekes on 05.29.13 at 1:00 am

#12 Derek
If sask sales are declining, prices will follow. There is nothing propping up pricing in the province.
The journeyman I worked under at Tech Electric 15 years ago drove taxi for 3 years in the eighties when things went bad, he was a journeyman electrician. It can happen again. There’s still 170 unemployed electricians in Winnipeg.
#62 smoking man
Most people I meet who think they are “free thinkers” are the most enslaved to their own desires, and infringe the greatest on the freedom of others.
Freedom is not the key to deep happiness, doing what you are supposed to do is the key.

#77 A Nightmare on Bay Street on 05.29.13 at 1:19 am

Sorry Garth, but QE3 killed the last bits of financial credibility the USA had.

I drew a few zeroes next to my account balance and tried to get laid at the bar.

Only the bearded one believed me.

I finished in the alley with 2 broken ribs and a bloody nose.

#78 Humpty Dumpt on 05.29.13 at 1:44 am

Monsanto hired mercenary Blackwater to infiltrate anti-GMO groups

“… entities closely linked to the private security firm Blackwater have provided intelligence, training and security services to US and foreign governments as well as several multinational corporations, including Monsanto, Chevron, the Walt Disney Company, Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines and banking giants Deutsche Bank and Barclays, according to documents obtained by The Nation. Blackwater’s work for corporations and government agencies was contracted using two companies owned by Blackwater’s owner and founder, Erik Prince: Total Intelligence Solutions and the Terrorism Research Center (TRC). Prince is listed as the chairman of both companies in internal company documents, which show how the web of companies functions as a highly coordinated operation.”
A spokesperson for Monsanto, reached by Scahill, first denied the relationship with Blackwater, but then admitted that Monsanto had paid Total Intelligence for intelligence reoprts

“… about the activities of groups or individuals that could pose a risk to company personnel or operations around the world which were developed by monitoring local media reports and other publicly available information. The subject matter ranged from information regarding terrorist incidents in Asia or kidnappings in Central America to scanning the content of activist blogs and websites.”

http://digitaljournal.com/article/297701

#79 screwed on 05.29.13 at 1:55 am

Cdn bond yields

lower highs from here on out

wanna make a bet?

BOC will lower the rate further this year. 100%

Zero per cent. — Garth

#80 ozu on 05.29.13 at 2:00 am

does any one know where to check the price history of BC housing ??

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#81 Kalergie on 05.29.13 at 2:18 am

Another chapter of your toldya book: Liberty Reserve and its recent news. Any comments, Garth?

#82 raisemyrent on 05.29.13 at 2:22 am

#62 Smoking Man on 05.28.13 at 11:17 pm
Waters is a genius……

haha Roger Waters is a genius… that hasn’t released anything worth listening since 1979 (which gave us slim pickings at best)

#83 willworkforpickles on 05.29.13 at 2:30 am

Smoke and Mirrors USA and nothing more….half a million vehicles alone were flooded out and lost in hurricane sandy, prompting insurance write offs to add to the escalating national debt…….hence “So many new vehicles are being sold the car companies just cancelled summer break.” notwithstanding….. the US dollar is headed for a massive fall.

#84 Humpty Dumpt on 05.29.13 at 2:55 am

First it was Hiroshima…

Now its Fukashima

Radioactive Cesium Recorded at 10 Spots in Pacific Ocean After Fukushima

https://www.commondreams.org/headline/2013/05/24-3

God bless amerika eh G…

A Time-Lapse Map of Every Nuclear Explosion Since 1945

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLCF7vPanrY

Galatians 6 – 7
Be not deceived; God is not mocked: for whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap.

#85 Rob aka Captian and Mrs Slow on 05.29.13 at 2:59 am

Yupp Garth even the Americans are believing it

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2013/05/07/how-to-prosper-in-an-economic-boom/

#86 Angryman127 on 05.29.13 at 3:18 am

Kudos gt! Ofc Americas best days are still in front of it and you were gutsy to call it. We have both profitted from a belief in our awesome neighbour…but pls stop breaking these kids hearts. Our housing market is most likely in for a long very slow grind down over the next 15 years. It will parallel our calcified society, entrenched with entitlement at all levels.

So I would tell GenY, they can rent and feel good about saving money….because there’s a strong case for that…but they might just watch their life pass them by. Ownership has a value, the value of being a stakeholder in a community. And this is often ignored by both the mindless RE industry and those that are feeling smug about renting. As much as you talk about horny house buyers there are many yearn to be full stakeholders and citizens in a community but are shut out from doing so.

#87 betamax on 05.29.13 at 3:50 am

#60 Shawn: “And anyhow how has Dr. Doom done since 2008.? Not so well I would imagine if he is still doomin’”

Faber called the ’09 stockmarket bottom and predicted the ensuing rally. Unlike some, he only predicts doom selectively.

#88 Mr Buyer on 05.29.13 at 4:03 am

The non-dead cat bounce thesis may have some legs after all. Unfortunately this may serve as a plank in the soft landing platform here in Canada. You know the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel thing. As a seller I only have to hold for a short 4 or 5 years to be back in happier times with real estate motoring skyward again. It is a powerful thesis and I am wondering if it has any substance or not.

#89 JohnDoe on 05.29.13 at 7:00 am

The rush to stocks and the bashing of gold have been very interesting lately.

Very interesting actions also on the COMEX allowing some real bargains.

Looks like orchestrated effort which seems odd, everything is supposed to be rosy after all.
——————————————–
# 44: Ralph Crampdown:

Everything depends on the time horizon.

#90 Kevinhole Eerie on 05.29.13 at 7:37 am

Watch it Garth, you cockroach.

There is only 1 “Mr. Wonderful”. Moi.

A copyright infringement lawsuit might have you begging Harper for a job in the Senate to pay your bills.

Or worse….getting a job at the CBC.

How low would you go?

#91 Ralph Cramdown on 05.29.13 at 7:45 am

#72 coastal — “The job numbers are misleading as well. Employee hours worked are at recession levels of several years back.”

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=PAYNSA,
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AWHAETP

#92 bigrider on 05.29.13 at 7:46 am

” Nationally house prices gained 10.9 % for the past year. Yes prices are still down 25% from the bubbly peak..”

Do you feel that we will see those peak prices again over the next few years, given the fact that you also say prices are rising 1% per month ?

I think that might be a very tall order.

#93 pbrasseur on 05.29.13 at 7:54 am

I for one never did bet against America, just the opposit, at least 80% of my money is on stocks traded in NYSE or the Nasdaq. I did more than double my worth since the great crisis (and it was not easy ignoring all the gloom&doom). BTW this is not a macro economic call, I simply buy shares of the greatest businesses in the world that happen to be situated in a well regulated and free market, that is the US.

Yet the “great rotation” from stocks to bonds has not even really started, stocks have risen simply because they were dirt cheap and companies are buying their own stocks. As Garth says a short term correction is never to exclude, but we’re in a for a bull market that should last for years. Most, inclusing pension funds, have missed the boat, but it’s not too late, many sectors are still very cheap, tech and financials for example.

For Canada, a grossly overrated country, the next shoes to drop are obviously real estate and the Canadian dollar (and more potential gain for US market buyers)

#94 Ralph Cramdown on 05.29.13 at 7:56 am

#88 JohnDoe — “The rush to stocks and the bashing of gold have been very interesting lately.”

Ain’t been no rush to stocks. Both flow of funds reports (i.e. into and out of mutual funds) and stock market volumes suggest that the Main Street investor is still very much assuming the crash readiness position with most or all of his money in bonds and money market funds. He’s easy to spot on the interwebs, too, as he refers to himself as a “saver” and bewails low interest rates.

It reminds me of when I was rereading Market Wizards a few months back. The interviewer asked one grizzled old coot what his toughest market was, and the coot mentioned a period in the early ’70s.
- “But that was a bull market!”
- “Sure it was. But none of us believed it in, so we weren’t making any money.”

#95 economictsunami on 05.29.13 at 8:00 am

C’mon GT. I thought you were more sophisticated then that. You speak about Franken-numbers from CREA but are quick to latch onto the very same distorted data coming out of America.

Ginned up equities with their share buy backs because corporations fail to put their profits to work in the real economy.

Good jobs lost/ low wage ones created to take their place and Consumer Confidence Surveys (virtually meaningless to final outcomes) as wages fail to sustainably rise; while credit remains tight???

Banks holding up the foreclosure process while their hedge fund brethren buy large blocks of housing for rentals. (While Lumber Futures are collapsing?)

(I’ll give you the interest rate assertion; as the same people that believe rates will stay low forever, are the very same one’s that believed all this QE was going to create hyperinflation; becoming nothing but gold fodder for Big Investment Banks.) Buy physical gold not paper.

Trillions in QE/ stimulus and all we have to show for it is the fact that we have staved off yet another statistical recession?

It took us years to get into this credit/ debt jam we’re in (although the US is way ahead of our deleveraging process) and still have a long and winding road ahead of us.

Well worth your time. Subject matter includes: Japan, Europe, China, America and gold

Video Presentation from Grant Williams from Things That Make You Go Hhhmm..

Do The Math:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-26/grant-williams-do-math

There are still some laws that are undeniable…

A balanced investor’s wealth is up substantially this year, especially after rebalancing. Yours? — Garth

#96 neo on 05.29.13 at 8:12 am

Excessive debt/leverage bad for Canadian housing.

Excessive debt/leverage good for stocks.

Gotcha.

Hypocrite.

Folks can use 95% amortized leverage to buy a house. They must pay for equities with cash or equivalent. Fool. — Garth

#97 fancy_pants on 05.29.13 at 8:15 am

up, down, up, down …
grow, shrink, grow, shrink …
increase, decrease, increase, decrease …
bull, bear, bull, bear …
climb, fall, climb, fall …
greed, fear, greed, fear …

guessing what comes next is easy… guessing exactly when it comes is the hard part. Case in point: Canada RE propped on the hill for a long time. Hang on to your housecoat, maybe the real fun is fast approaching.

#98 fancy_pants on 05.29.13 at 8:20 am

… but one thing can be predicted accurately: something cannot come from nothing. just don’t ask helicopter Ben. even gurus get fooled.

#99 jess on 05.29.13 at 8:20 am

joe bogus on fake street

US prosecutors have announced what they say is the biggest international money laundering prosecution in history – a $US6 billion ($A6.2 billion) trail that allegedly includes $US36.9 million ($A38.4 million) deposited in Westpac Bank accounts.

Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/it-pro/security-it/westpac-caught-up-in-worlds-biggest-money-laundering-sting-20130529-2naa8.html#ixzz2UgR6NslA

#100 Taipan on 05.29.13 at 8:41 am

Yeah good luck with that Garth.

When it comes to property you’ve been spot on.

I dont know whether its your political background or what it is, but you readily believe that excessive cheap money can create property bubbles, yet government and central bankers are some how superhuman and can recreate a growing economy. Nice leap of faith.

Bit close to the fire?

Bernanke doesnt have an unlimited supply of money printing. Within 6 months he will cross that limit.

He will have hoped that we would have all bought into the idea “the GFC is over and everything is improving.”

Garth you understand what excessive liquidity does to assets – it creates bubbles.

You will have had access to real figures not the circulated “public figures”.

I feel very comfortable not betting against america. Just like it wasnt a good idea to bet against the british empire until it was.

The only trouble with that position, is that you can be right 100 times, but get it wrong that one time and youll get smashed. You know it only happens once every century.

You and I must touch base again in about 6-12 months – maybe ill recount your comments. Cheers

#101 fancy_pants on 05.29.13 at 8:48 am

#49 Retired WI Boomer on 05.28.13 at 10:38 pm

Rumor has it that buying American can “get it better”
but I’m not sure if it’s just the little red guy with pitchfork whispering in my ear again.

Maybe some bearded oracle can give you clarity there.

#102 Pounding sand in Peachland on 05.29.13 at 9:09 am

you paint a pretty picture

#103 Loopback on 05.29.13 at 9:18 am

Present day “hot money” equity rally looks rather similar to the 1935-1937 boom just before the 1937-1939 crash.

#104 DonDWest on 05.29.13 at 9:18 am

#58 dosouth

400K for a fricken piece of dirt in the middle of nowhere! Sorry, I think I’ll pass! That piece of dirt is worth 70K at most. I don’t give a flying frack how much you silly baby boomers paid for it beforehand. Your houses/land are simply not worth the wholesale value you’ve projected in your Ponzi scheme little heads.

Here’s a hint if you want to retire, why don’t you cut the culture of entitlement and do what your younger peers do, such as working two to three jobs?! Oh that’s right, you’re an entitled baby boomer afraid of a little hard work and getting your hands dirty! I’ll just play house instead off my fricken dime!

#105 Shawn on 05.29.13 at 9:19 am

Betamax at 87 said:

Faber called the ’09 stockmarket bottom and predicted the ensuing rally. Unlike some, he only predicts doom selectively.

********************************************

Predicted the crash (useful) or the bottom?

he only predicts doom selectively. Really? then how come the Dr. Doom Moniker.

Does he publish his personal returns or those of a fund he manages.

In fact do you know anyone who reveals their personal returns year by year?

#106 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.29.13 at 9:20 am

@ #29 Chickenlittle on 05.28.13 at 9:47 pm
#21 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.28.13 at 9:32 pm
“Maybe something like Second Cup? (down 40% YOY)”

SC needs more hipsters or philosophy majors to legitimize it as a real alternative to Starbucks. Starbucks is hip, SC needs a new hip.
_____________________

Agreed – but, doesn’t that pretty much sum up Vancouver RE these days? (expanded a lot, got some people’s attention, and then everyone moved on — SC trying to be Starbucks is a bit like Vancouver RE trying to be San Francisco RE or Hong Kong RE)

… this is much like Toronto in a year or two when the offshore money decides tear-down bungalows aren’t worth $1M and McMansions on 25ft lots aren’t worth $1.6M-$2M.

#107 kc on 05.29.13 at 9:21 am

36 kc on 05.28.13 at 10:18 pm

14 The American on 05.28.13 at 9:05 pm I miss not reading your posts, i don’t read on here like I used to.

I shouldn’t write when tired…. i meant this to say, “I miss reading your posts on what you see going on around you”. thanks

#108 thiscountryisgoingdown the toilet on 05.29.13 at 9:24 am

Yeah yeah…comparing Canada to the US is like comparing space flight to wagon wheels……Canada is a third world country compared to the US in every way.

We’re being kept back by the tautology of ideolologues who purposefully engineer Canada to be a third world country split into fiefdoms controlled by civil service unions and the special interests that support the status quo.

Recent study’s bear this out….union civil service pay and perks outstrip growth and the taxpayers ability to pay….there i s no focus on development…only civic servant gorging in the trough.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Municipal+spending+Canada+outpaces+population+growth+business/8447179/story.html

And yet the representative of the beast calls any opposition ‘sensationalist’……..this type of ad hominem attack is what confuses Canadians…..and keeps the greed flowing into the coffers of the elite.

#109 The American on 05.29.13 at 9:29 am

At #36: kc, I live in Seattle, WA, (just South of where that Canadian trucker took out our bridge on Interstate 5, creating havoc for American and Canadian drivers alike who are trying to get to/from Seattle. They’re trying to get a resolve in place quickly). In answer to your question, housing starts in the Seattle area are now exceeding peak levels in 2007, and inventory in Seattle is now at an 32-year low. Sounds unbelievable, but it is true. Still, prices are nowhere near where they were at peak. The reason? All things return to the mean, and it will in Canada as well. That means a guaranteed market correction across the board in excess of 27% (although we are predicting as a nation that Canada will far exceed a 27% correction). The Seattle/Bellevue market is seeing signs of Canadian buyers (primarily of Chinese origins) coming in to buy real estate at “bargain” prices when force-ranked against Vancouver. However, barriers to entry are clearly greater in the U.S., not making it as easy to establish residency with a simple $500,000 investment. It guarantees NOBODY any kind of claim to live here. A trend being witnessed are Chinese/Canadian students establishing residency while attending University at UW (it is much easier to establish residency in this manner), using mommy and daddy’s cash to buy big, expensive property. Later, mommy and daddy move down and in with their kid. It is fascinating.

As a nation, it is quite evident the U.S. economy is kicking again. Anyone with with a brain and two eyes can see it. And as Garth indicated, American consumer confidence is at a five-year high. Bottom line is people are clearly buying again and buying a lot, which is excellent news for a consumption-based economy. The difference this time around is people are not nearly as leveraged in credit with their purchases, whether they are big-ticket or small-ticket items (houses, cars, boats, clothes, etc.). As we all know by now, and it isn’t any big surprise, Canadian consumers are now much more in debt than American consumers ever were, while at the same time Canadians earn overall slightly less than Americans on average (forget these idiots who claim Americans working factory jobs at $12/hour… its bullsh*t for 99% of them), Canadians are taxed at a much higher rate, and Canadians pay more in base costs for most goods/services/real estate.

What does this spell out for Canada? Well, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see it is heading for some pretty serious consequences. This may be where I disagree with Garth’s overall assessment of how dire the situation is in Canada, but who knows. The Canadian economy is already showing serious signs of hurting, there will be no soft landing, and people better begin to believe it. And for they non-believers who think rates will remain forever low… think again. The rate trend is clearly upward. There have now been three rate hikes in a row, albeit small each time, the trend is upward. Its a nice way of telling everyone to get out there and lock it in for 30 years before the rates really take off. I’d take that warning to heart, because Canada will follow suit and rates will begin to rise considerably over the next 3-4 years. That’s a fact (I work in global banking and economic trending/forecasts. We are rarely, if ever, wrong).

#110 rosie "moving forward" on 05.29.13 at 9:34 am

#69 Nemisis

It’s called the politics of peace. It happens after wars. http://www.planesofthepast.com/images/kingman/kingman-aaf-storage-aerial-view-1946.jpg

#111 The American on 05.29.13 at 9:43 am

At #83: willworkforpickles, the USD is headed for a massive fall, you say? LMFAO. Actually, you should consider it is the CAD that is heading for the fall (and already going in that direction). Good luck with your little theory, and good luck with whatever strategy it is you think you have to hedge the future.

#112 Nancy on 05.29.13 at 9:56 am

Also, for a laugh, check out this “penthouse” apartment for rent in Vancouver’s Gastown (aka Downtown Eastside). You better not mind sharing a kitchen and a bathroom with your neighbours!

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2013/05/micro-gastown-penthouse-for-rent/

#113 The American on 05.29.13 at 9:56 am

At #36: kc, sorry, I failed to tell you if the housing starts in Seattle are SFH or condos. Actually, it appears to be a pretty good mix. However, I would have to say that condos and apartments are the key to this new round of building. The reason? Through the recession and housing bust, Americans in general found a resurgence to re-energize urban cores because it was more convenient, less expensive when considering transportation and parking costs, and it has permitted people to “hive” in a time of hardship (hiving is actually proven to help one’s blue mood).

#114 DonDWest on 05.29.13 at 10:00 am

The first honest politician:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isxADTDdRBY

I love how all his party members cheered him on.

#115 Mike (in Texas) on 05.29.13 at 10:00 am

I’m back after a 1 year hiatus, living in Texas from Calgary.

We purchased a home here and it’s very much like Calgary here, but not as friendly overall. (Canadians are a friendly lot).

A report from the ground in the USA.

“There will be no recession in the US this year or next or likely the one after that. Consumer confidence just hit a five-year high, largely because people can see more and better jobs being created. ”

I wish this was true, but it just isn’t. Even in the oil rich Texas empire jobs are not easy to find, poverty is everywhere (food stamps for gas anyone; unemployed on EVERY street corner too!), the economy is so poor. If you are in O&G or Medical you are fine but that’s a very small % of the population. Try eating out and there are only 1 or 2 other couples in the place for dinner. The average Texan is just trying to make it here and they care little of what the stock market is doing let alone have enough money to invest in it. Housing pricing have gone up though just like Garth said. But remember ONLY 40% of the population OWNS a home! 60% rent. Owning a home isn’t popular as it’s very hard work to maintain in a climate that keeps attacking your yard and house 12 months of the year (I have 1/3 of a acre).

So no, the recession is still here in force, even in the “jewel of the USA” and the strongest economic city in Texas.

So there you go, facts from Texas, USA.

Actually US home ownership is 61%. — Garth

#116 Tom Vu on 05.29.13 at 10:19 am

DELETED

#117 Good Grief Charlie Brown on 05.29.13 at 10:33 am

Garth, gotta admit that I am not a firm believer that the US is out of the woods – ever visit Detroit, Chicago, LA, they need Billions if not Trillions and years to get that part moving. The only thing that shows signs of life is the “service Sector” selling real estate to one another is part of the new America Culture.

With your own words, I wonder if we are now seeing another housing bubble in the States, how can you have such a dramatic upswing in sales and prices in such a short time. People never learn. The US will be forced to put the brakes on another heated housing bubble with rate hikes or risk another fiasco.

I will be wimpy, keep my money safely tucked in the orange shorts cause my gut is telling me there is more than meets the eye on the economy – bottle water and canned food could be the ideal investment – (just saying).

#118 jess on 05.29.13 at 10:35 am

Europe’s ‘dire’ economy needs QE, warns OECD – live
Last updated two minutes ago

Read the full article at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/uk-edition#ixzz2UgWOUcHF
=

========

…the Figueiredo report was recently described by the Truth Commission as “one of the most important documents produced by the Brazilian government in the last century”.

Marcelo Zelic, the human rights lawyer who discovered the document amid 50 boxes of files in the Indian Museum in Rio de Janeiro, said powerful vested interests are already trying to undermine the report because they fear they may appear in it.

..
The 7,000-page document, compiled by public prosecutor Jader de Figueiredo Correia, detailed mass murder, torture, enslavement, bacteriological warfare, sexual abuse, land theft and neglect waged against Brazil’s indigenous population. Some tribes were completely wiped out as a result and many more were decimated.

The report was recently rediscovered in Brazil’s Museum of the Indian and will now be considered by Brazil’s National Truth Commission, which is investigating human rights violations which occurred between 1947 and 1988.

One of the many gruesome examples in the report describes the ‘massacre of the 11th parallel’, in which dynamite was thrown from a small plane onto the village of ‘Cinta Larga’ Indians below. Thirty Indians were killed – just two survived to tell the tale

Read the full article at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/29/brazil-figueiredo-genocide-report#ixzz2UgaQualJ

#119 Pr on 05.29.13 at 10:39 am

So everything is OK now, the gouvernements can jump the interest rate higher and stop printing money. Please advise me a week or two before they do that, so i can leave.

#120 Escaped the USA forever on 05.29.13 at 10:43 am

Garth, the USA is a fascist police state. Everything and everywhere you go it is recorded. They have what your house is valued at, your residence record, all online for anyone to see. I looked up my mothers old boyfriend online, I know who he is married to, where he works, and what their house is valued at. CREEPY. If it isnt reason enough to live there because of the above, the lack of jobs are.

Although I dont like marijuana, legalization could basically eliminate their deficit. As it stands, if China calls in the debt the USA is owned.

I escaped my student loan and the IRS by leaving, as both have no jurisdiction in Canada. The key on avoiding both is to keep a low profile. I love these authoritarian firms such as the IRS and the student loan people who just think they can order people around like they own them. Not anymore for me.

#109: Actually USA is the third world dump. What country requires its citizens to pay taxes when not living there? USA and Libya. What country has high levels of prosperity and no public health care system? The USA. The USA is a scary scary place and best avoided by all Canadians unless they want to get a place and have to file papers if they have a “substantial presence”.

Are they out to get you? Yes. Is it all in your head? No. Modern society is similar to a prison with its rules and regulations about how a person should think, appear, and act, and those that get out of line end up dead, homeless, or in prison. The key is to figure out how to look like playing by the rules and lie.

#116 Mike in Texas: At least in Texas if someone screws with you on your property you can shoot them dead, but here if you do that you just to figure out where to hide the body. Here if you park wrong on your lawn in Canada the neighbors will complain.

We’re so lucky to have you. So are they. — Garth

#121 Devore on 05.29.13 at 10:52 am

#87 betamax

Faber called the ’09 stockmarket bottom and predicted the ensuing rally. Unlike some, he only predicts doom selectively.

This would be funny, if you didn’t actually believe it. But I think you do.

Marc “Dr. Doom” Faber predicts doom only selectively? He calls a market bottom every month; is that considered “selective” because it’s not every day? He predicted a rally after a crash? Wow, what an oracle. Oracle of doom!

#122 Nemesis on 05.29.13 at 11:29 am

@Rosie “moving forward”/#111

I take your point, Rosie… albeit, American sequestration related program curtailments/cessation have by no means been restricted to the DOD and its ancillary operations/force projection capabilities; e.g. everything from Grannie’s MealsOnWheels to educational programs like Head Start/Early Head Start and/or the National Parks Service are hurting [and badly at that].

Indeed, in Chicago alone 50 public schools were slated for closure this month, with more likely to follow…

Ergo, when we talk about America “being back” the implied comparison is to the America of yore [the undisputed GlobalHegemon]… a ranking which, clearly – is never coming back.

More specifically, as regards the “Politics of Peace” – that’s what Norman Angell thought, too… when he published, “The Great Illusion”. Its central thesis can be condensed as, “that the integration of the economies of European countries had grown to such a degree that war between them would be entirely futile, making militarism obsolete.”

Norman published that in 1913. Oops.

See also Hegemonic Stability Theory and, particularly, the work of Dr. Susan Strange…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Angell

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hegemonic_stability_theory

Class dismissed.

#123 The Prophet Elijah on 05.29.13 at 11:31 am

QE to infinity + ZIRP = DOW 15,000 plus

Minus QE minus ZIRP = DOW back to 2008 levels within 9 months

I don’t understand the confusion here. Ask anyone in the middle class of America if they are partaking in the the DOW joyride. Some maybe now buying at the top as Wallstreet Bankers exiting. Somethings never change.

Metalheads just make stuff up. — Garth

#124 Smoking Man on 05.29.13 at 11:31 am

#82 raisemyrent on 05.29.13 at 2:22 am#62 Smoking Man on 05.28.13 at 11:17 pmWaters is a genius……haha Roger Waters is a genius… that hasn’t released anything worth listening since 1979 (which gave us slim pickings at best)

………..

Really, what’s is CA IRA then? Or leaving Beirut

If you don’t like him it says something big about you.

#125 Mister Obvious on 05.29.13 at 11:33 am

105 DonDWest

“Here’s a hint if you want to retire, why don’t you cut the culture of entitlement and do what your younger peers do, such as working two to three jobs?! Oh that’s right, you’re an entitled baby boomer afraid of a little hard work and getting your hands dirty! I’ll just play house instead off my fricken dime!
————————————–

I’m retired. I got my hands filthy working very hard for forty years. I didn’t start the housing Ponzi but I was smart enough to get out when the getting was good.

Now I play house. Rented house, that is. Your ‘fricken dime’ has got sweet zero to do with that.

#126 coastal on 05.29.13 at 11:40 am

#92 Ralph,

I stand corrected, what I meant to say is employee hours are at the point back in 2008 when the US market tanked and went into recession, those are still negative numbers. Margin gamblers are at peak as well and shows in the sharp selloffs the past week.

All sorts of numbers still in play showing the the US is still in a recession. As I said, just have to look past the headlines and the DOW being pumped by Fed and Japanese money. Notice the uptrend in foreclosure sales down there ?

The patient has just had the breathing tubes removed, and when Dr. Bernanke withdraws the meds we will see if he lives or dies, or just stays an invalid.

#127 The Prophet Elijah on 05.29.13 at 11:40 am

#43 DalefromCalgary
Frac/horizontal wells are six to ten times more expensive than conventional vertical boreholes, and deplete 90% the first year. Fortunately because of Peak Oil the WTI price is staying in the $85 to $95 range to make it profitable. I’m glad I have my income from oil, not flipping houses or renting condos.
——————————————————–
You are correction about this, here is what one source says:

THE BAKKEN PONZI GAME

THE BAKKEN OUTPUT DECLINES ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO THE OPEN. A TREMENDOUS GROWTH IN NEW WELLS IS REQUIRED TO OVERCOME THE NATURALLY HIGH DEPLETION RATES.

The data is clear. The December 2012 total in the Bakken shale oil region was 705,426 barrels per day. The January 2013 total was 673,015 bbl/day, a difference showing a decline of 32,411 bbl/day. A robust 1773 new wells were added in 2012 in the Dakota region known as Bakken, the smoking gun. The combined projects will need at least 130 to 140 wells each month just to keep the game going, the Ponzi Scheme. Anything endorsed by the USGovt is highly suspect, including their scam-ridden green energy to promote the shoddy companies owned by Obama with defaulted loan frauds. The media is blaming one of the worst monthly declines in the Bakken on inclement weather, very lame. Watch the propaganda play out as shale oil production falls off a cliff unless the drilling managers keep increasing more wells. There will be natural limits as the project advances. They will exhaust the fertile areas.

-JW

#128 Steven on 05.29.13 at 11:43 am

Garth given the nature of the fiends that run America the preppers, gun nuts and gold bugs are doing the right thing.

#129 Victor V on 05.29.13 at 11:50 am

The Bank of Canada has maintained its warning that it will eventually hike interest rates – though it has tempered its tone in recent months – in the face of an increasing unemployment rate and weak economic growth in the back half of 2012. Mark Carney has also repeatedly told Canadian households to start paying down their record levels of debt before interest rates move higher, which would increase the cost of servicing that debt.

But the Bank of Canada also offered a slightly more upbeat tone on the Canadian economy on Wednesday, saying recent economic data suggest that growth in the first quarter was “stronger than the bank projected in April.”

The central bank still expects the overall economy to grow by 1.5 percent this year, after expanding by 1.8 percent in 2012.

It is also calling for consumer spending to growth a “moderate pace,” while business investment will grow “solidly.”

Similar to what it has said in previous interest rate announcements, the Bank of Canada expects residential investment to “decline further from historically high levels.”

“Growth in total household credit is slowing and the Bank continues to expect that the household debt-to-income ratio will stabilize near current levels,” the central bank said.

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2013/05/29/BoC-holds-rate-at-one-percent-as-Carney-exits.aspx

#130 The Prophet Elijah on 05.29.13 at 11:50 am

“So many new vehicles are being sold the car companies just cancelled summer break. Within months, maybe weeks, the US Fed will start easing back on the stimulus spending.”

You are correct that car sales are up, however the flip of that is low interest rates and more debt, nothing more. Good analogy is Canadian RE at record homeownership but record debt levels to boot – no need to further eloborate on that one I’m sure.

The Fed is been talking about tapering on QE since it started in 2009. Once you start down the path you can’t stop or it’s back to 2008, only worse. Ask Japan.

And the real killer is ZIRP, destroys capital, just ask any business owner whose costs keep chronically increasing due to inflation (real inflation), profit margins shrink, business goes down, jobs are lost. You can’t fix the underlying fundametals this way.

#131 John S on 05.29.13 at 11:54 am

DUDE Garth… at 0.49 of RMR?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdjNdQcOoHg

Blast from the Past!

#132 PKP801 on 05.29.13 at 12:08 pm

Hi Garth,

It seems like with ~30% returns on the DOW and S&P like you mentioned above, most retail investors have missed the boat with regards to generating large returns in the US equities market.

Following the ‘buy low, sell high’ mentality, I’d prefer not to jump in now that markets are at or near all-time highs. Any tips where to go now for yield?

I’d also be interested in your opinions re: quote stuffing and the shadow housing inventory in the US. The last I read was somewhere around 2 million homes Stateside are unlisted and owned by the banks, or in the process of foreclosure. They are being allowed to trickle onto the market (or held off completely) so that prices don’t bottom as a result of a glut of supply. Thoughts?

#133 GOTTHARDBAHN on 05.29.13 at 12:10 pm

Hey Garth -

Your ‘meme’ seems to be that US good, Canada very bad. Given recent US numbers ‘good’ might be true of America but, with regards to Canada, your hero Mark Carney this AM said Q1 growth was better than the BoC expected and he still wants to raise rates. You can see him saying that, right at the end of the statement. So, like, what gives? Pace you, it doesn’t sound like the Bank thinks Canada is on life support.

#134 Canadian Watchdog on 05.29.13 at 12:25 pm

Carney showing Poloz how to reverse repo $1.1B to save Canadian banks and levitate the TSX with $685MM in special securities operations (buying equities, ABCP, subprime). Link

#135 economictsunami on 05.29.13 at 12:28 pm

“A balanced investor’s wealth is up substantially this year, especially after rebalancing. Yours? — Garth’

GT: I was talking about the possibility that you might be misreading the US situation.

I didn’t ask you to unzip and show me your ‘Johnson’ portfolio.

Most investors I know, that have rather large one’s, never seem to talk about it…

#136 Ex-Edmonton Mortgage Broker on 05.29.13 at 12:29 pm

re: US auto sales, having just imported a used $100k vehicle from the US, i was surprised that the private seller had financed the vehicle, but more enlightening was the fact that he had 1% financing from PenFed. (a federally run lending institution offering mortgages, car loans etc.)

now blowing $100k cash on a depreciating asset is admittedly foolhardy, but when you can finance at 1%, I assure you, the pool of fools just substantially bigger. i think there’s more to this US auto sales picture than what we’re led to believe.

one last thing, seller was freeing up capital to invest in….you guessed it, real estate. can’t argue that one though. i’d probably be doing the same if i was American.

#137 micker07 on 05.29.13 at 12:32 pm

There’s a big difference between an organic recovery and a propped up market due to money printing. This fact seems to escape Mr. Turner.

#138 Old Man on 05.29.13 at 12:34 pm

Hey Smoking Man I want to say congradulations on your son’s marriage, and hope tradition prevailed that the bride’s family was stiffed for the bill or did you get hooped for the big event? Nevertheless, once the honeymoon is over your son will be placed in training, and he will learn the hard way who the boss will be.

#139 Your Conscience on 05.29.13 at 12:38 pm

#124 The Prophet Elijah on 05.29.13 at 11:31 am
QE to infinity + ZIRP = DOW 15,000 plus

Minus QE minus ZIRP = DOW back to 2008 levels within 9 months

I don’t understand the confusion here. Ask anyone in the middle class of America if they are partaking in the the DOW joyride. Some maybe now buying at the top as Wallstreet Bankers exiting. Somethings never change.

Metalheads just make stuff up. — Garth
———————————————————
No, globalist shills like Garth and his side kick “The American” make stuff up. We weren’t born yesterday so stop insulting the “small” people’s intelligance.

That would be tough. — Garth

#140 :):( Ying Yang on 05.29.13 at 12:38 pm

#63 Smoking Man on 05.28.13 at 11:30 pm
CICI is it my fault I landed on this planet with superior Intelagents, so I can’t spell, a fish can’t climb a tree, those that rally behind a belief, a religion, a nation, are slaves regardless of how luck treated them….
I’m a Smoking Man, the outsider the freeman.
I look in the mirror buck naked every day after my shower and say myself, you still got game, your awesome, let’s have fun with the idiots.
And they don’t start off as idiots, other idiots convert them into copies of themselves, damn teachers..

I am afraid Smoking Man you are part of a religion. Atheism or agnosticisms is a religion. Whether it fits technically with the semantics or not is not a concern of mine; the practical definition of religion is what matters to me, not the letter of the law. And the practical definition, distasteful though it may be to those who disdain religion in all its forms, is that the very thing most atheists hate is what they have become: a religion, with clearly defined rules, eschatology and a philosophy by which to live. Religion is a means of understanding our existence. Atheism fits that bill. Religion is a philosophy of life. So is atheism. A religion has its leaders, the preachers of its tenets. So does atheism (Nietzsche, Feuerbach, Lenin, Marx). Religion has its faithful believers, who guard the orthodoxy of the faith. So does atheism. And religion is a matter of faith, not certainty. Your own faithful say that, as that is what I was referring to in my posting. Welcome to the religious world! Please forgive my contentious tone. However, I would very much like to bring some (albeit not all as that is not possible) to the realization that all religions set themselves apart from the crowd; they are the pure, the faithful, all others are just “religion.” Here again, atheism fits the bill. If you are not an atheist then you are still a believer in the philosophy of which your existence and being exude as slave of whatever it is you so desire. Just saying, don’t kick the huddled masses for what they do, they are a part of this existence within your own life of making money, drinking heavily, scoring woman wantonly and ranting freely on this blog. BTW you are also a teacher! By giving dissertations on Camel Toe, Batwings, Forex trading and any other investment strategy you have nicely played into the role of teacher! OMG you have become a person of religion and a teacher.

#141 WhiteKat on 05.29.13 at 12:45 pm

@121 Escaped USA Forever,

I wish I could escape. I had the misfortune of being born in US, but left as an infant. I am also Canadian (born a dual citizen) and have lived in Canada since infancy.

USA is the only country in the world (except for Eritrea) that has a ‘citizenship based’ tax policy. This means that once you are a tax payer you are ALWAYS a taxpayer regardless where you live and regardless where you earn your money, unless you take formal steps to renounce your citizenship (or green card).

Being born in the USA, makes me a citizen, and therefore a taxpayer, even though I left as a baby. However, until recently most people like myself (there are approximately 1 million of us in Canada) did not know about USA’s unique taxation policy. Intuitively it makes sense to pay taxes to the government of the country you actually live in (called residency based taxation).

In 2010 USA, enacted FACTA (foreign account tax compliance act) which requires ALL financial institutions in the world to seek out their ‘US person’ clients and report all the details of every account with that person’s name on it (even jointly held accounts).

FATCA is ‘sold’ under the guise of catching homelanders who hide their money off-shore in order to evade taxes, but for every Whale(homelander tax evader) caught in the FATCA net, many more ‘minnows’(US persons abroad) will be pulverized.

‘US persons’ abroad who have not been filing US tax returns, and not reporting their foreign bank accounts (which are local to them), are in big do do, when FATCA is implemented starting January 2014.

Canada is currently in ‘negotiations’ with USA to hand over the account details of all the ‘US persons’ living in Canada which is causing a huge stir here (as well as in the rest of the world). The reason Canada has not told USA to bugger off is because non-compliance with FATCA results in a 30% withholding of money transferred from a US financial institution to a Canadian one. Canadian banks are terrified, and are pressuring the Canadian government to sign an agreement(and change Canadian privacy laws) so that the banks can do what USA wants without breaking any privacy laws in Canada.

The Canadian Civil Liberties Association, and several high ranking Constitution lawyers have made it clear that handing over Canadian banking information to USA based strictly on place of birth or green card status is a violation of the Canadian constitution (discrimination of place of birth).

Most people in Canada who are considered ‘taxable’ according to IRS would in fact owe little taxes, but face life altering penalties for not reporting their ‘foreign’ (aka Canadian) bank accounts. The IRS will make most of its revenue from penalties, not from taxes owed through implementation of FATCA.

Non-compliant ‘US persons’ are in a catch-22 situation. To back-file US returns and FBARS (foreign bank account reports), is expensive and complicated. For example Canadian mutual funds are considered ‘foreign trusts’ and ‘PFICS’ (passive foreign income corporations) in the US and subject to extreme reporting requirements and draconian taxes.

In addition, ‘coming clean’(said tongue in cheek) risks insane penalties which can wipe out the value of the ‘foreign’ account just for not having filled out a form. Remember these penalties are designed for money launderers living in the USA, not Canadians living in Canada, but no distinction is made by the IRS in how they are treated.

To renounce US citizenship, requires 5 years of prior tax and FBAR compliancy, so damned if you do and damned if you don’t.

I have never worked or earned any income in USA, and I am one of those ‘US persons’ that USA is looking for with FATCA. My bank is currently implementing procedures to find people like myself (for example by asking for place of birth with a new account opening). Most don’t know what is coming down the pipeline (starting Jan 2014).

See: issacbrocksociety.ca for more info.

#142 Mark on 05.29.13 at 12:46 pm

“Any tips where to go now for yield?”

The plain-old TSX is yielding in excess of 3% these days (in qualified dividends!!!). Don’t know why Canadians are so averse to just picking up some XIU and calling it a day.

#143 WhiteKat on 05.29.13 at 12:58 pm

Re: #135,

USA enacted FATCA in 2010 (not FACTA), excuse the typo.

FATCA (foreign account tax compliance act) was supposedly enacted to catch ‘fatcats’ thus a catchy acronym, but is netting mostly minnows amongst a few whales.

FATCA is often confused with FACTA (fair and accurate credit transactions act).

#144 rosie "moving forward" on 05.29.13 at 1:03 pm

#123 Nemisis

Politics. When the dust settles the U.S. will still be on top. No viable alternative. Many eggs are being scrambled globally, and America owns the frying pan. As for fighter jets, well they’re kind of passe. http://i80.photobucket.com/albums/j186/DonaldDouglas/obama_game_of_drones_zps80a6af0c.jpg

#145 DreamingInTechnicolour on 05.29.13 at 1:15 pm

They say those that don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it….

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)

#146 Edward on 05.29.13 at 1:20 pm

Love how even the daily Blog Dogs and huge Garth fans still argue with him about gold, money, USA, and investing. I started reading this about a year and half ago, did exactly what Garth said, and made a sht ton of money. Sound like there’s a lot of sour grapes around here. So, I for one am gonna say again: “Thanks, Garth!” You speak the true true. Naysayers: Start your own blog if you’re smarter than Turner and we’ll watch your track record of predictions over a few years and see how it compares.

#147 The Prophet Elijah on 05.29.13 at 1:21 pm

Here is the truth about the US housing recovery:

THE OFFICIAL STORY IS THAT THE US-HOUSING MARKET IS IN RECOVERY. NOT AT ALL. THE DOMINANT NEW FEATURE IS USGOVT RENTAL HOMES WITH WALL STREET REALTOR AGENTS. BIG BANK HOME INVENTORY REMAINS A MAJOR ABSCESS. THE MARKET IS WRECKED.

A huge amount of real estate sales are to Wall Street firms. They are lined up with cozy agreements linked to Fannie Mae. The big US banks are purchasing large blocks of thousands of foreclosed homes, the old owners pushed out. The new tenants for the featured programs are 60% welfare cases, arranged to so-called ‘Section 8′ tenants on government subsidy programs. Just as the Jackass predicted in 2005 and 2006, the USGovt would embark on a vast Fannie Mae Rental program. Call it the collectivist response to wipe out the American Dream in favor of the communist state ownership worker paradise. The bank owned (REO) home inventory still remains over eight million units, kept off the sale blocks, so as to prevent a housing market steep price decline. So supply is hidden, while demand is from Wall Street through the slushy USGovt programs. This is the heart of the supposed recovery, a total sham. See the Washington Post article:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/wall-street-betting-billions-on-single-family-homes-in-distressed-markets/2013/04/21/ac4bdefc-a2e1-11e2-9c03-6952ff305f35_story_1.html

The United States is grinding down, evident in the cities. They are becoming poverty stricken zones.

You are tedious. And wrong. — Garth

#148 The Prophet Elijah on 05.29.13 at 1:33 pm

…from Wall Street through the slushy USGovt programs. This is the heart of the supposed recovery, a total sham. See the Washington Post article:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/wall-street-betting-billions-on-single-family-homes-in-distressed-markets/2013/04/21/ac4bdefc-a2e1-11e2-9c03-6952ff305f35_story_1.html

The United States is grinding down, evident in the cities. They are becoming poverty stricken zones.

You are tedious. And wrong. — Garth
———————————————————-
The article makes it clear 70% of homes bought in Florida are by institutions not by a recovering middle class.

“Clearly the investors are moving markets in some places,” said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research and author of a popular housing blog. “In some markets at the bottom end, you are looking at 30 or 40 percent gains year to year. That is frightening to me. At some point the music stops. The investors if they get hurt, that is their problem. But invariably a lot of other people will get caught up in that.”

“Investors” are not instituions. — Garth

#149 Old Man on 05.29.13 at 1:48 pm

I know Mr. Turner loves his bike, as was a biker too years ago, so have a story that he might enjoy. It took place a few days ago, as was walking out with a store purchase, and told a biker not to move while I put my puchase in the car, so he might have thought was working undercover to bust him, as he showed fear.

He was driving a shadow in mint condition, so said dude what did you pay? He said $1,200, and said you stole it, and the year was 1984, and was impressed, so said do you ever take it on a road trip, and said no an hour here and there as might overheat on me, as keep my Harley at home for that stuff. I have no fear over any biker, as we had a meeting of the minds; and he just smiled at me.

#150 The Prophet Elijah on 05.29.13 at 2:01 pm

You are tedious. And wrong. — Garth
——————————————————-
Garth I don’t want to rain on your parade as I enjoy your website, but I can’t figure out how such a man of your caliber sporting a 6-pack and hummer can be so mislead about these things. We are living in history making times and it’s all just begun post 2008.
Perhaps 100 years from now the encyclypedia will even make mention of the Greater Fool website.

The metalhead credo: Wise people agree with me. — Garth

#151 Nemesis on 05.29.13 at 2:06 pm

@rosie “moving forward”/#145

“America owns the frying pan”

The FryingPan owns America. There. Fixed it for ya.

Seriously, the correct unit of analysis has nothing to do with convenient postal boundaries or national identities [or even governments/governance for that matter].

It’s really about nothing more, or less, than TheMoney.

And TheMoney is a force unto itself that salutes no flag, honours no sovereign… respects no frontier.

Dr. Leslie Sklair’s paper may help:

http://tinyurl.com/pa73mxt

#152 The Prophet Elijah on 05.29.13 at 2:11 pm

“Investors” are not instituions. — Garth
——————————————————–
Garth this is exactly my point. The institutions created the momentum to the upside, the rest are now speculators riding the wave, the danger of course is don’t be the last man out. Geez it’s circa 2003 to 2008 all over again!

#153 FATHER on 05.29.13 at 2:12 pm

I AGREE WITH GARTH CANADA’S GOING DOWN USA IS MAKING A COME BACK

#154 FATHER on 05.29.13 at 2:14 pm

AT LEAST THE US PEOPLE CAN WORK AT MCDICKIES & AFFORD A HOUSE

#155 Shawn on 05.29.13 at 2:46 pm

RETAIL INVESTORS OUT OF MARKET?

Actually it is doubtful that retail investors as a group EVER abandon the market.

Every stock once issued on the market must be owned by some person or institution untl such time as it is bought back by the company or it gets delisted from the market. And those both happen at the company’s choice or action not the investors. For the most part then a stock once issued is on the market relatively permanently and must always be owned.

Investors as a population are therefore entirely powerless to abandon the market enmass. What they can do is bid the share prices down when shares are unpopular and up when popular. But every stock is still owned.

And I am doutful that retail investors had any greater propensity to panic than the so called professionals.

Therefore retail investors (the brave and or smarter ones that is) have fully participated in the upside since 2009 lows.

And we thank those who sold to us at the lows.

And not every could have particpated. There were only so many shares to go around.

#156 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 05.29.13 at 2:49 pm

Sorry U.S. is toast…and we will go down with them.

Anyone can regurgitate positive sounding dogma numbers….but the real valid pragmatic ones seem to be ignored.

#157 rosie "moving forward" on 05.29.13 at 2:51 pm

#152 Nemisis

TheMoney. Don’t forget to check where it comes from.
http://www.lajollalasik.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/uncle-sam-money.jpg

#158 The American on 05.29.13 at 2:54 pm

At #140: Your Conscience, nothing is being made up. It is stone-cold, hardcore statistical data. See, it is called fact-based. You’re making it up by all definitions of the term.

#159 Smoking Man on 05.29.13 at 2:56 pm

#141 :):( Ying Yang on 05.29.13 at 12:38 pm

Hell of post…

This is the difference between me and the rest of you dogs.

You all have a need to belong, you all want to be part of something.. Be it a religion, a country, a community. That desire has been forced feed to you since birth. With in these groups you bond at the expense of others Israel vs Arab, Catholic vs Prods, white vs black.

I’m an individual and hate everyone equally, there is no top on my shit list.

If I had choice between going to the academy awards or spending an evening in my gazebo getting smashed out of mind alone scanning the sky for ufos

Ufos wins hands down.

It’s my self sufficient see is what makes me great. I don’t need to go with concensus, I hate concensus.

I don’t belong, I’m a loner, got rid of all my friends,

And I have never been happier.

Bazaar isn’t it….

#160 blokexistentialist on 05.29.13 at 3:06 pm

#147
Exactly.

#161 The American on 05.29.13 at 3:07 pm

At #142: WhiteKat, you’re full of it. LMFAO. If you were born a baby in the U.S. and left as a child, you NEVER paid taxes to the U.S. Granted, you are permitted dual citizenship as a Canadian, HOWEVER, the U.S. does not recognize dual citizenship. Therefore, you musn’t be paying taxes to the U.S. whatsoever if you chose not to because you reserve the right to renounce U.S. citizenship. Nice try, though. Go ahead and renounce your U.S. citizenship, and stop complaining and making stuff up.

#162 thiscountryis going down the toilet on 05.29.13 at 3:09 pm

#116 Mike in Texas…… You must llive in some bizarro world dude…..I can’t find a single truth in what you say about living in Texas…your observations are out to lunch…….What part of Texas did you find that parellels what you say you are experiencing?

I live in N Irving…..10 minutes down the 635 from Dallas …..buisiness is booming…..office towers are sprouting by the thousands and full. to capacity …retail is gushing…building like crazy…there are wait lines at most restaurants …the parking lots are always full even though there are a hundred times more food outlets than in Canada….and there a help wanted signs everywhere…..and zero retail space available at any of the malls I frequent…where the crowds are shoulder to shoulder btw….

Food prices are ridiculously cheap compared to Canada…..people have got to be the friendliest most hospitable of any I have experianced anywhere in the world….and gas is cheap…..property taxes and taxes of all stripes are far lower than anything in Canada…a new 3000 sq ft house in a suburb McKinney or Country Club sells for under $250K. I get an auto matic 15% raise by not having to pay the provincial tax…there is no state income tax. Talk about multi ethnic….Texas has more immigrants than Canada….only they don’t force them in ethnic ghetto’s here.

You can’t get a ticket to a Rangers or Cowboy game…..sold out…..Cowboy stadium is 44 times larger than BC Place…….the parks and zoo are full….you rarely see anyone driving a wreck….civic centers are alive with goings on of all types…….and you will never see a crack head shooting dope on the steps of city hall like TO or Vancouver.

I travel Texas every weekend and have yet to see what you describe which leads me to believe that you are not in Texas and just like writing nonsense.

#163 VanPerfecto on 05.29.13 at 3:10 pm

American – I have read many posts and articles of Offshore money buying homes. Garth continuously states this is not a fact and holds little significance in the Canadian Market. I agree with Garth’s overall views. I do not agree with his view on the effects of offshore money on Real Estate in Vancouver. His only response is “racism” to any suggestion that offshore money affects the market
“The Seattle/Bellevue market is seeing signs of Canadian buyers (primarily of Chinese origins) coming in to buy real estate at “bargain” prices when force-ranked against Vancouver. However, barriers to entry are clearly greater in the U.S., not making it as easy to establish residency with a simple $500,000 investment. It guarantees NOBODY any kind of claim to live here. A trend being witnessed are Chinese/Canadian students establishing residency while attending University at UW (it is much easier to establish residency in this manner), using mommy and daddy’s cash to buy big, expensive property. Later, mommy and daddy move down and in with their kid. It is fascinating.”

#164 angela on 05.29.13 at 3:31 pm

the US dollars looks to be like toast, this from main stream media WTF are the msm now doomers

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100461159

#165 Patiently Waiting on 05.29.13 at 3:48 pm

There’s a new home in the South Surrey area ALREADY drop from $1.7M to $1.4.

$300K folks.

I expect it to come down another $100K next month.. I think the builder is panicking!!
——————-
If you give me the address or MLS number I will look up the history and find out what he paid for the lot, give you a ball park idea of his cost, and if time permits, look up his mortgage to see his debt level and debt servicing …

pw

#166 Canadian Watchdog on 05.29.13 at 3:49 pm

Is that you again Garth?

No. Obvious photoshop. Sixpack way better. — Garth

#167 brainsail on 05.29.13 at 3:51 pm

“Why People Get So Emotional About Gold”

“The reason is what behavioural finance calls cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance is what you experience when you find out something that goes against your beliefs. The best example is the typical TV news interview with a murderer’s mother. She always says what a good boy her son is, he would never do anything like that, he loves his mother, he loves his dog, etc. etc. This is normal. When faced with some new information that goes against our long-held beliefs, most people prefer to ignore the new information or rationalize it away rather than change their beliefs. ”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100771373

#168 jess on 05.29.13 at 3:51 pm

deferred prosecution
May 28, 2013
Justice for All or Justice for Sale?

James S. Henry, Esq.

read more @
http://www.the-american-interest.com/article-bd.cfm?piece=1429

#169 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 05.29.13 at 3:57 pm

So Garth is right again! Well at least Mr Obama will go into the sunset riding high on a wave of economic surges. It does make perfect sense as my own business has seen modest gains in shipments back into the United States over the last year. Nothing huge or quantum leaps but slow steady month over month and year to year gains. At the current pace I expect a decent gain at year end. My relatives in SoCal are always asking me when am I going to pack in here and come to the sunny climes of SoCal. Probably when this country has exhausted all of its profitable economic enterprises and there is no gas left in the tank. However I digress that would be akin to running away and leaving a man down on the battlefield. Canada has a lot to offer we just need to get the government out of business and let us enterprising entrepreneurs get on with generating revenue.

#170 retired WI Boomer on 05.29.13 at 3:57 pm

#102 Fancy_Pants

I am an American. That does NOT mean my investments are all in America. They literally are all over the world, including Canada.

No single country has a “lock” on how to invest, or how to work, or the best system for their people to flourish.

Since I live in, and worked in, and was paid in US dollars, not gold, Euro’s, or Loonie’s I invest through US portals.

I believe “growing companies” represent a better opportunity than “growing debt” in other words, I prefer equities to Bonds. That’s not to say I don’t own some good Bond Funds, too. I prefer Funds and ETF’s to individual equities, but do own over 100K in individual equites of some good companies – they provide me a decent dividend stream, and room for growth. I watch them, it’s not just “set it, and forget it.”

This idea, of a diversified portfolio, rebalanced twice a year, and sticking to a game plan for the larger part of 30 years has merely allowed this old fart some sense of security now that i have chosen to stoop working.

It was planned by me to stop working at 60. I was ready, and financially able to look in another direction. I do NOT have all the money in the world, I merely have all the money I will reasonably need for the rest of my life, however long that might be.

My investments, lack of debts, small pension provide the sustenance. Social security is available should I wish to use it before my regular retirement age of 66. We shall see

Decent investment planning, some luck, decent health made this possible. A great wife for the past 39 years years helped us get to where we wanted to be. We planned this, and the Devil can take the hind quarter!

More than Enough…that’s the BEST way I can describe it.

I don’t know what tomorrow might bring, neither does anybody else. I know we did the best we could with what we had, and it worked!!! Try it, it just might work for U2.

#171 WhiteKat on 05.29.13 at 4:04 pm

@TheAmerican,

With all due respect, as unbelievable as it sounds, the USA is after Canadians in Canada who were born in the USA via the IRS FATCA witch hunt. Check out the wealth of information at issacbrocksociety.ca. Research and educate yourself before you accuse people of ‘making things up’.

Personally, I have better things to do than to ‘make things up’ and my intent on posting here is to inform as many ‘US persons’ as I can regarding what is coming down the pipeline with FATCA before they have their ‘OMG moment’ while sitting across from TNLB. To be
forewarned is to be forearmed.
Here are a few articles (all referenced from the issacbrocksociety website) that you might find illuminating:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/irs-wants-canada-to-nab-us-tax-cheats-why-we-should-care/article6994760/
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Compliance+with+violate+Charter+Rights/8086718/story.html
http://www.greenparty.ca/backgrounder/2013-01-28/backgrounder-canada-and-fatca

I wish I could renounce, but in order to do that I have to be 5 years tax and FBAR compliant first which opens a huge pandora’s box.

#172 Nemesis on 05.29.13 at 4:11 pm

@rosie “moving forward”/#158

I suspect you misunderstood me. My bad. “TheMoney” is an old English colloquiallism referencing ‘those wot got it’ vs. any specific or national currency.

Nevertheless, your pictorial allusion to the USD’s current status as the global reserve currency is a topic well&truly worthy of further examination in its own light – later perhaps [hint: what ever happened to the Denarius?].

#173 WhiteKat on 05.29.13 at 4:14 pm

@The American,

Some quotes for you:

“Clearly, any person with earnings or part-time residence in the US should file tax returns and pay US taxes in keeping with current bilateral agreements. However, our government must stand up for Canadian citizens who are neither working under nor representing any burden to the US governmental system”

“The majority of these people have spent their lives working and paying taxes in Canada, and were unaware that these laws applied to them. Many are faced with the loss of substantial life savings due to statutory fines and cannot even avoid penalties by retroactively filing tax returns. If this weren’t enough, they are now faced with the prospect of further intrusion into their lives under a FATCA IGA.”

–Elizabeth May, Green Party Leader and Member of Parliament for Saanich-Gulf Islands

“This is not acceptable. These US laws intended to combat tax evasion by their residents sheltering wealth abroad, should not penalize Canadians who are complying with tax laws where they live.”

“It would be a clear violation of our Charter of Rights and Freedoms to have Canadian banks, under the direction of the IRS, violate the privacy rights of some Canadian citizens or residents based on their current or former ties to another country, namely the United States.”

–Erich Jacoby-Hawkins, Green Party of Canada’s National Revenue critic.

#174 brainsail on 05.29.13 at 4:19 pm

#162 thiscountryis going down the toilet

I would like to ditto your comments and add this link. We live in Austin.

“Houston Is Unstoppable: Why Texas’ Juggernaut Is America’s #1 Job Creator”

#175 brainsail on 05.29.13 at 4:27 pm

Missing link…

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/05/houston-is-unstoppable-why-texas-juggernaut-is-americas-1-job-creator/275927/

#176 jess on 05.29.13 at 4:28 pm

“food prices are cheap” especially when one dumps their sludge down the sewers!

Wal-Mart Pleads Guilty to Federal Environmental Crimes, Admits Civil Violations and Will Pay More Than $81 Million(13-611)

medicaid fraud
http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/2012/October/12-ag-1205.html
============
“We are a nation of laws,” prosecutor Jeffrey Theodore said during closing arguments. “You can’t take the law into your own hands and force your views on other people.”

Really, than get going after those swiss banksters

Elderly nun convicted over US nuclear site break-in
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22459437

#177 Loopback on 05.29.13 at 4:29 pm

The S&P is a circus sideshow. Central Bank’s monthly liquidity injection has everything to do with supporting the main event – counterparty risk on the $700 trillion derivative market (10x total global economy).

Folks, the S&P is going higher, though all bets are off when the Fed is forced to purchase weaker collateral.

#178 Ralph Cramdown on 05.29.13 at 4:36 pm

#153 The Prophet Elijah

OK, let’s review.
- Keynesianism was economic orthodoxy back when you were in diapers. Briefly, governments should spend when the private sector isn’t, and run surpluses when the private sector is spending. Even Uncle Milty Friedman, who was — always and everywhere — wrong about a lot of things, said “We are all Keynesians now.” Now if the government refuses to spend, the Central Bank printing money to stimulate the private sector is an inferior second choice (they lend to the banks, who don’t have to lend further; “you can’t push on a string”). Nonetheless, Bernanke has in a previous life indicated that he understands his role. They don’t call him “helicopter Ben” for nothing.

- Japan has shown that if you’re considered a safe bet, you can run huge budget deficits in a crappy economy for a very long time and people will still line up to buy your bonds at ridiculously low yields.

- The US Fed has generally been prone to waiting too long to take away the punchbowl. This Chairman has been the most explicit in decades, stating that he wouldn’t take his foot off the gas until unemployment hit 6.5%

- The Bundesbank has had the opposite problem for decades. The Euro nations signed up for tight monetary policy because they liked the borrowing rates that came with it. Now they’re getting what they signed up for, in spades. Once again, Keynesian theory predicts the outcome.

- Employed, indebted consumers with a monthly nut in the driveway and a monthly nut over their heads are unlikely to revolt. You saw their reaction to the ‘Occupy’ movement last year, and the Tea Party has served only to split the loony right, which was already drifting furiously toward irrelevance. Much as you may wish to focus on the unemployed or the underemployed, most are employed, and indebted.

- The US Congress is bought and paid for by US based multinational corporations.

Given the above, why scream at us that the prices of stocks are up, that gold is down, that inflation isn’t raging, that debt still sells at foolishly low interest rates, that corporate profits are up, that the deep-pocketed are snapping up properties with attractive cap rates in depressed US markets, or about anything else you’ve been whingeing about? Get with the program and make some money, or keep fighting the most powerful financial force on earth — and one of the few which is under NO obligation to turn a profit — but quit moaning that things which any amateur student of 20th century financial history could have predicted keep coming to pass. As the Man said, it’s getting tedious.

#179 Toronto_CA on 05.29.13 at 5:00 pm

#116 Mike (in Texas) on 05.29.13 at 10:00 am

My parents and siblings live in Austin, Texas and I visit them at least 5 times a year and hear about their lives constantly. Austin is booming. My parents do renovations and my brother has been selling houses in subdivisions and although 2008-2011 was crap, things have been gangbusters ever since. And people are MUCH friendlier than they are in Toronto (can’t speak for Calgary) and everything is much cheaper but the wages are not far off for professionals.

Are you in Houston? I’d hardly call that the Jewel of America. Austin and Dallas are much nicer areas of Texas.

#180 gladiator on 05.29.13 at 5:30 pm

@161 The American:
while you are an American citizen, you owe Uncle Sam taxes on your income, regardless of its provenience.
WhiteKat, while growing up in Canada and having all her income from non-US sources, will have to be back-taxed on all this income because of the US income law and its enforcement via FATCA.

#181 Victor V on 05.29.13 at 5:36 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/bank-of-canada-still-signalling-higher-rates-down-the-road/article12220520/

The Bank of Canada is on cruise control.

Policy makers changed little at their last meeting under Governor Mark Carney, as they opted to leave the benchmark interest rate at 1 per cent for the 32nd consecutive month.

The central bank also repeated that its next interest-rate move – whenever that may be – most likely will be to take borrowing costs higher, a nod to concerns that ultra-low interest rates threaten financial stability by creating the conditions for runaway inflation and asset-price bubbles.

#182 The Mummy on 05.29.13 at 5:39 pm

With US debt approaching 17 trillion with no end in sight I don’t see how there is a REAL economic recovery:

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

And this doesn’t include the 90 trillion unfunded social security liabilities (will be fun with the influx of baby boomers coming up for retirement), nor the 700 trillion in derivatives floating in cyber space.

Until the US’s corrupt “shadow banking” cartels are cleaned up I don’t see a formidable solution. And by the time 2015 rolls around there will be no more fudging numbers cause they won’t be fooling anyone at that point. Maybe not even Garth Turner ;)

#183 thiscountryis going down the toilet on 05.29.13 at 5:39 pm

#163 VanPerf…sorry dude…but student visa’s are in no way a path to permanent residency. The only way you can establish residence is through legitimacy through a work/business/green card lottery visa…..and then apply for change of status.

It takes about 6 months to apply for a green card if you’re already legal…….apply outside the country and the same process can take 7 to 9 years. Student visa’s expire and then you’re out. You cannot sponsor a parent for residency on a student visa……they can be dependants however..as long as you or they do not work. They do not give a crap whether you own property or not. But when the student visa is up and the school doesn’t issue a letter of tuition payment…the whole gang goes back to Slobovia……

It is possible to apply to reside as a retiree……the minmum is one milion in liquid assets…..but not working after entry.

You are thinking of Canada where students can apply for permanent residence status after two years in Canada and can then begin to sponsor family members….it doesn’t work the same way here….there is no family reunification deal here. Look at the Immigration web site…even your spouse is not guaranteed entry …..they are lower on the priority rank than a single child under 25.

#184 TEMPLE on 05.29.13 at 5:40 pm

#141 :):( Ying Yang on 05.29.13 at 12:38 pm

Atheism or agnosticisms is a religion.

Try not to be so stupid. Crack open a dictionary and look up what a religion is. Now compare that to atheism, which is the absence of belief. I’ll help you figure out the difference by borrowing from Clark Adams: if atheism is a religion, then health is a disease.

TEMPLE

#185 what bubble? on 05.29.13 at 5:44 pm

“Canada economy performs better then expected”… “so overnight interest rate stays at 1%”… what a surprise for all of us, isn’t it?

“Low borrowing costs have caused the housing market to overheat, and Carney has said this run-up of debt is the biggest risk facing the Canadian economy. He has repeatedly warned consumers to reduce their exposure because interest rates will eventually have to rise. And he has admitted to being frustrated that the slow world economy has made it impossible for him to hike rates a bit to help take some of the inflationary steam out of the housing sector.”

as it turned out Carney is simply waiting for the world economy to rebound… once it gets rebounded, then… here we go… interest rate will go up… go world economy, go

http://www.thestar.com/business/2012/12/04/bank_of_canada_keeps_interest_rate_at_1.html

#186 The Mummy on 05.29.13 at 5:50 pm

#164 angela on 05.29.13 at 3:31 pm
the US dollars looks to be like toast, this from main stream media WTF are the msm now doomers

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100461159
———————————————————
Bout time. This is what 95% of Americans don’t understand. The USD is quietly being isolated out. The BRICS and Eurasian trade block is being formed using a gold back currency and elimintaing the dollar for international commerce. The reprucusions will be a death knell to the standard of living for Americans, unfortunatley they will wake up one day to a third world police state, not IF but when.
The world is tired of the US’s financial treachery from everything to selling toxic assets around the world to GMO foods. The jig is up.

You’ve been licking your bullion too much. The US$ will be the global reserve currency every day of your life. — Garth

#187 Tom Vu on 05.29.13 at 6:11 pm

Only good thing in Texas is the Cheerleaders.

Rest of state full of redneck poseurs

#188 The American on 05.29.13 at 6:19 pm

At #186: The Mummy, now THAT deserves a standing ovation. Probably the most funny post I’ve read in weeks. Whatever you’re smoking, I’d like some of it, please. I LOVE it when a Canadian calls the U.S. a “third-world police state.” That’s rich. :-)

#189 The American on 05.29.13 at 6:22 pm

At #180: Gladiator, you are incorrect. Sorry. Whitekat can renounce U.S. citizenship. Dual citizenship is not recognized in the U.S. Canada recognizes it. So, it sounds like Whitekat wants her cake and eat it too. Not that big of a deal to renounce U.S. citizenship and stop being subject to U.S.taxation being that Whitekat “escaped.” Easy as pie. Stop being a U.S. citizen and the problem goes away… that is, unless Whitekat really sees it as a problem.

#190 The American on 05.29.13 at 6:24 pm

At #179: Toronto_CA, you’re right… Austin and Dallas are MUCH nicer areas of Texas than Houston. Cost of living in Texas is sickeningly low, especially when you consider that salaries are close (although only slightly lower) than other areas of the nation. The dollar goes a LOOOOOOOOONG way in Texas. And for those who haven’t been to Austin before, you should try it. Its a blast of a town. Awesome people, great food and culture, and the music scene is second to none.

#191 Ralph Cramdown on 05.29.13 at 6:24 pm

#186 The Mummy

Ah yes, the “China’s moving off Dollar based trade” dilemma.

Does China hold a truly golgothian amount of US debt?

Could the Chinese leadership afford for China to get poorer by whatever amount it would, should the Dollar lose its reserve currency status?

OK then. Accept that the USA and China are each other’s biggest trade partners, neither government can afford a big reduction in that trade, and continue your analysis from there.

As an aside, a younger, more foolish me once fantasized that the Chinese government was just luring the US into this debt trap, to be sprung once there was no escape. To paraphrase an old saw: If a debtor nation owes you $100 Billion, it has a problem. If it owes you a Trillion, YOU have a problem. Carry on.

#192 Nemesis on 05.29.13 at 6:29 pm

@RalphCramdown/#178

You had me until, “Get with the program.”

An historical parable:

http://youtu.be/kWR2I5Q9d9U

There are two fundamental take-always from that:

1. Victors write TheHistory

2. “I was only getting with ‘TheProgram’.” is not a valid defence.

#193 The American on 05.29.13 at 6:29 pm

WhiteKat, you need to re-read what is being said. The U.S. is NOT taxing people who have part-time residency. Only those who earn income in the U.S., OR those who are U.S. citizens abroad are subject to taxation. Any Canadian can own property in the U.S. and never will pay U.S. Federal taxes so long as you are not working in the U.S. or have dual citizenship (again, not recognized by the U.S. government. Not our problem). The only tax you would pay for being a part-time resident in the U.S. not earning income in the U.S. is local and property taxes. That goes anywhere else in the world for that matter.

#194 The American on 05.29.13 at 6:36 pm

At #163: VanPerfecto, I cannot speak for Garth. But, if my memory serves me correctly, Garth hasn’t referred to the notion that foreign money has been a part of the gross speculation in Vancouver. I believe his take was it isn’t true any longer, of which I would completely concur with those sentiments. HAM has not been a large factor in the Vancouver market for well over 4 years, believe it or not. The realtors only make a case for it to keep the panic going of “buy now or forever be priced out! The Chinese are coming, the Chinese are coming!” (eh hem, that’s a little throw back to Paul Revere)

#195 enjc on 05.29.13 at 6:41 pm

You’re six months early Garth. Let’s see some monetary action indicating a recovery. If QE tapers and eventually stops, then you’d be free to cheer as the economy would then be standing on it’s two feet (if you don’t count the support of ultra low interest rates). Claiming victory while the patient is still in the ICU on a morphine drip is premature even with positive news.

#196 The American on 05.29.13 at 6:41 pm

At #116: Mike (In Texas), you’re so full of sh*t your eyes are turning brown. Seriously, you probably haven’t stepped foot in Texas to make such a ridiculously claim. Texas is booming EVERYWHERE and it is LOADED with cash. Sickeningly loaded with cash. Sure, it may have some impoverished people, much like many people I see everywhere in Vancouver B.C.

At 162: Thiscountry is going down the toilet, you totally nailed it. Texas is actually a great place, incredibly diverse, and amazing people everywhere you go.

#197 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.29.13 at 6:57 pm

@ #136 economictsunami on 05.29.13 at 12:28 pm

I didn’t ask you to unzip and show me your ‘Johnson’ portfolio.

Most investors I know, that have rather large one’s, never seem to talk about it…

Interestingly enough, Johnson and Johnson is up 37% over the past 1 year:
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AJNJ

(40% if you include the 3% dividend)

unzip that!

#198 Cici on 05.29.13 at 7:18 pm

#63 Smoking Man

That sounded like a lecture; are you sure you aren’t jealous of teachers? I think you secretly want to be the rector of Smoking Man U.

Anyways, I think you are jumping the gun a bit if you are assuming from my comment that I am in full support of everything Israel or any other nation does, or that I am for or against any other.

I don’t fund any cause that is not 100% devoted to improving the lot of this world for EVERYONE; and I do not buy into any one religion, culture, society or country, although I respect and am fascinated by them all.

If that makes me a slave or idiot in your eyes, or anyone elses…so be it. I really don’t care because I’m that much of a FREEthinker.

#199 The Prophet Elijah on 05.29.13 at 7:23 pm

#178 Ralph Cramdown on 05.29.13 at 4:36 pm

#153 The Prophet Elijah

OK, let’s review.
– Keynesianism was economic orthodoxy back when you were in diapers. Briefly, governments should spend when the private sector isn’t, and run surpluse
———————————————————
When a nation goes from democracy to fascism every month, quarter and year is always on the up and up.
Problem is not a word of it is true, every heard of propaganda, cowboy.

#200 WhiteKat on 05.29.13 at 7:59 pm

@The American,

I can tell by your comments that you have no idea what I was posting about, but I won’t take up anymore space on Garth’s blog to get into it.

IF you are interested in understanding what is really going on due to FATCA in combination with USA’s unique policy of ‘citizenship based’ taxation (i.e. the resulting hardships being experienced currently by millions of US born people living outside of USA), THEN spend some time reading at issacbrocksociety.ca

You might learn something.

The U.S. is NOT taxing people who have part-time residency. Only those who earn income in the U.S., OR those who are U.S. citizens abroad are subject to taxation. Any Canadian can own property in the U.S. and never will pay U.S. Federal taxes so long as you are not working in the U.S. or have dual citizenship (again, not recognized by the U.S. government. Not our problem). The only tax you would pay for being a part-time resident in the U.S. not earning income in the U.S. is local and property taxes. That goes anywhere else in the world for that matter.

#201 AK on 05.29.13 at 8:01 pm

“So, Treasury yields have risen a dramatic 50 points since the beginning of the month, and were pushed further on news of rising confidence and a real estate renaissance.”
——————————————————————–
Indeed. Over the past few days there has been a fire sale on all the REITS, mREITS, Utilities and Pipelines.

Yes, rates will go up, but there is no way they will skyrocket.

So, today I took the opportunity to add to the following:

T.D.UN
N.AGNC

I also took an initial position on N.DIS(a non interest sensative security).

#202 WhiteKat on 05.29.13 at 8:08 pm

Re: my last post(for those who care, most probably don’t) – just noticed I forgot to delete ‘TheAmerican’s comment from the end of my post.

#203 espressobob on 05.29.13 at 8:08 pm

OK thats it! I’ve had enough! Sick and tired of all those US & Int. markets. What the hell am I supposed to do with all the profit taken? Besides its worthless ‘fiat’ anyways! Why didn’t I pile into Gold & Silver since our civilization is doomed? What was I thinking? And yes, all those distributions are becoming a pain in the ass!

#204 Daisy Mae on 05.29.13 at 9:07 pm

#141 Ying: “Atheism or agnosticisms is a religion.”

*********************

MERRIAM-WEBSTER, religion – ‘service or worship of of god’.

Please quit with the crap…okay? It’s tiresome. Got nothing better to do?