Anticipation

shak

Shopping in the Milton Wal-Mart and get an urge for 
100% financing? Call Shak. Now. (Thanks to Nick Aziz)

“After a long absence from Canada,” says Claude, “I came back last year to BC. My wife and I are renting, but we’re keeping our eyes open to buy a place of our own. I have been reading you blog every day and really enjoy it. Your predictions are coming true and yet a crappy small bungalow in total disrepair sold on my street 3 months ago for $729,000.

“What fool would pay that much money for such a moribund home. But my question is, as real estate sales are crumbling fast across the country, I don’t seem to see a crumbling in the asking prices. To what do you attribute this situation?”

In Calgary, Ian is also scratching his head.

“We’re 60ish, retired early, sold our very large home in Calgary last August.  Stored everything and travelled for six months.  Now back in town, in a furnished rental for a few months until we get something permanent. Market seems hot here – too hot.   Saw a villa condo that was listed yesterday and was advised that there was an offer coming on the same day.  We do not think it is good to participate in a market like this, but we still want to buy.

“Apart from the market which seems a little overheated here, my particular issue also involves oil.  What else in Cowtown?   Oil prices are down, US production/exploration is up, and domestic NA consumption is down.  But, we still have a growing population. Does your opinion of the Calgary market mirror your opinion of the Toronto and Vancouver markets?”

Across Canada every city is seeing slower housing sales than this time last year. BC’s in a funk, Nova Scotia is following hard, Toronto’s market is fragmenting and everywhere construction is grinding down. The housing market has lost momentum and glam. Even warm weather and mortgages at 2.89% have failed to rekindle the passion.

Despite that, there are still enough fools around to keep most prices aloft. In fact the sub-$1 million category has been the hottie in 416, Van and Cowtown, since it attracts the yuppie flotsam who can still pig out on mortgage debt without having to cough up a 20% downpayment or give up the aesthetician. This action has hoisted the average SFH price in Calgary to an unhealthy $510,000, while it hovers at $852,090 in Toronto and $1,152,091 in Vancouver.

So, Claude, you’re right. Sucky houses still sell for stupid prices. This is exactly why the feds are vexed. They desperately want a soft landing for real estate so we can avoid a US-style gut of the middle class, now that everyone and their beagle owns a condo. That means lower prices along with lower sales – which is why (as I reported yesterday) they’ll continue to make it harder for buyers.

Doing away with 30-year mortgages is another hunk of the strategy. By forcing all mortgages in Canada to be amortized for no more than 25 years, the feds will once again increase monthly payments and put the squeeze on lenders like MCAP. That’s because such companies (including First National) do not finance mortgages through deposits, but by buying bulk funds or selling new loans to the banks – who will soon be banned from purchasing them.

But when will prices fall? Across the board?

In most of BC it’s already here. Houses routinely sell now for less than assessed values, vendors are accepting deals well below asking, and in places like Richmond and Victoria a tumble in transactions is the precursor to substantial and semi-permanent reductions in prices. In Toronto, the million-plus market is wobbling at the same time as condo sales fade. Last April a typical $1.5 million dollar OSB-and-stone palace in North Toronto sold for 115% of list. Now the same place would list $100K less, and sell for 95% of that. You do the math.

Calgary? It’s the new Van! Not a precious cowboy moment goes by that Mario Toneguzzi, the Herald’s pumper-in-chief doesn’t write another breathless story or send out a vacuous tweet (‘Residential construction a big boost to local economies!’, ‘Calgary region new home prices on the rise!’, ‘Calgary country residential housing market set to take off!’). The local meme is that it’s different there (of course), with the real estate board celebrating prices which have now recovered to 2007 levels.

Of course, in some ways it is different. The jobless rate sits 3% below that of Toronto and there’s no PST on your new horse. But the province is struggling with a ballooning deficit, oil royalties have plunged, commodity prices have been weak, the US is slashing its appetite for Canadian crude, and Al Gore just called called everything north of Edmonton a ‘sewer.’ Moreover, household debt in Alberta mushroomed 11.2% in the past year, which shows you that people there are as ravenous and undisciplined as they are in Milton and Montreal.

No place is different, because people aren’t. They chase what rises and shun what falls. They let the Marios get them juiced, start thinking they’re special like snowflakes, and do extreme stuff – like spending half a mill on a suburban box. Apparently there aren’t enough Calgarians still in town to remember the last housing bust. Coyote ugly.

In short, nothing has changed, Claude and Ian. Not even your impatience.

182 comments ↓

#1 Randy on 05.10.13 at 8:31 pm

I am shunning ‘you’ …real estate…

#2 quasi g bug on 05.10.13 at 8:35 pm

First? No chance.

#3 hardassi on 05.10.13 at 8:41 pm

RE Calgary. To get a really frightening picture of the Calgary market, ask anybody who bought a house there in 1980 or ’81 before the fall…. Decades for the prices to recover. Decades. And of course those that could keep their houses paid huge carrying costs (remember 15% mortgage rates?) instead of making their money make money for them. Overshoot the last 10 years, but that’s why it is a bubble.

#4 Lily Joe on 05.10.13 at 8:43 pm

Thanks Garth for explaining why people are paying stupid prices for real estate. Like a hot stock to the fools, buy high!

#5 DaleFromCalgary on 05.10.13 at 8:45 pm

Who’s buying in Cowtown? Not petro-executives or geologists. They’ve all been outsourced to Houston or Denver. The buyers are journeymen tradesmen and their nagging spouses. Trades depend mightily on house construction. When it slows, they’ll be in serious trouble.

We had to swab one of our natural gas wells recently. The contractors

#6 Ex-Cowtown on 05.10.13 at 8:46 pm

And it just gets better in the Cowtown oil patch. A little known Alberta government program, the LLR is stripping hundreds of millions of $$$ of working capital from smaller and more vulnerable oil companies. The LLR was originally designed to be a deposit fund for abandoning oil wells in the event that the company that operated them went bankrupt.

Over the past several years, the Alberta government has ratcheted the deposits higher and higher such that many smaller companies find that much of their working capital is now tied up with government deposits. This threatens the viability of the company to the point that many WILL NOW GO BANKRUPT. And BANKRUPT COMPANIES don’t hire people.

Luckily, the Alberta government will be able to say “Whew… it’s good that we took all that $$$ from those people. Look at what happened; They all went bankrupt!!!!!! Aren’t we smart!!!

Unintended but perfectly foreseeable consequences. Thanks for comin’ out to Wildrose Country!

Dumbasses.

#7 Millionaire Machinist on 05.10.13 at 8:48 pm

Oh, how I wish the BOC would rise interest rates by 5% ONE SHOT (just for 2-3 months!!) just to see all these slaves squirm (and yell, and cry!!!)….Mr. Poloz, are you reading this?? Please?

#8 DaleFromCalgary on 05.10.13 at 8:53 pm

Sorry, my previous post accidently was submitted before I finished. Contractors for our NG well were calling all day long hoping to get the bid. Still work available, some of the tradesmen told me, but they have to hustle now.

Rents and house prices steady or increasing in Cowtown, but when the boys can’t find work no matter how hard they hustle, that’s when prices will dive. We’re on the edge; tradesmen no longer act like they’re doing me a favour when they bid.

#9 Ford Prefect on 05.10.13 at 8:59 pm

For Claude and Ian the Comox Valley on Vancouver Island is a good example of what they are experiencing. Despite sky high inventory, 1200+ units for sale, and anemic sales, 79 for this April or around 15 months of inventory most asking prices are far in excess of what the modest family income here (median $50k) would support. A stand off between buyers and sellers has been going on for a year now but finally some very nice properties are now going for around 20% below assessment – still too high but falling.

On the theory that building lots are the canary in the coal mine the collapse of housing prices appears inevitable here. This April four building lots sold, the average price this April was $130k compared to $249k last year or a drop of around 48%. And there are around 230 lots for sale here through realtors, but not necessarily on MLS, giving a months of inventory figure potentially north of 56.

#10 TurnerNation on 05.10.13 at 9:01 pm

Genworth (MIC.TO) dropped a lot today.

By mistake I lopped off the .TO. Look what you get – a gazillion percent move.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MIC&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84559813964

#11 Smoking Man on 05.10.13 at 9:03 pm

Tom Vu, Daisy May, the Grim go to my last post from yesterday and let me know what you think…

#12 T.O. and GTA bidding wars debunked -May 10 on 05.10.13 at 9:10 pm

http://recharts.blogspot.ca/2013/05/to-bidding-wars-debunked-may-10.html

http://recharts.blogspot.ca/2013/05/gta-bidding-wars-debunked-may-10.html

#13 Anticipation — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate – The Affluent Boomer on 05.10.13 at 9:11 pm

[...] via Anticipation — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate. [...]

#14 Silver on 05.10.13 at 9:11 pm

Funny you should mention First National…
First National…Hmmmm
That’s who we bought our court ordered sale in Mission from…
CMHC took a loss on our place, that I do know…
… wonder how many more there are in first nationals bag…

Fun read as usual, thanks Garth.

Silver

#15 Smoking Man on 05.10.13 at 9:12 pm

When to ship faced to post plajeriz with like minded.

There are two ways to cast a movie. You bring in professional actors and have them read, or you go out and hire “real people” for the parts.The second way is sometimes used for the cameos.That’s the case with the completely insane arrests, school suspensions, and general harassment leveled at kids and parents who “are guilty of” toy guns, fingers shaped like guns, pictures of guns, guns that make bubbles.Here’s how it works.The networks cover these stories, and they interview people in the community who say:“Well, I think the suspension from school was a little too harsh. Of course, Jimmy shouldn’t have brought the bubble gum gun to school, but the authorities went overboard…”“Other children in the class were frightened and that’s not good…”“The schools have a hard job these days, after the Newtown shooting. Everybody is on edge…”“Mickey is a good boy. I’m sure he meant no harm with the water pistol. But bringing it to school not the thing to do…”These are all supposed to be rational comments and reactions.Of course, they aren’t. They’re the words of total idiots.If Jimmy brings a screen saver of a gun to his school, SO WHAT?If Mike has a little plastic gun that makes bubbles, SO WHAT?Ah, but if the sane people who would come right out and say SO WHAT and get very angry about it don’t exist anymore, then where are we?But you see, those sane people do exist. They are many of them in the communities where the lunatics in charge are pursuing this wacko agenda.THE NETWORKS AREN’T INTERVIEWING THOSE SANE PEOPLE.They’re not casting them in the movie called The News.No, instead, they’re casting the idiots, as if they represent the “general opinion and feeling.”And these are the people the country sees on the news.After a while, most of the viewing audience accepts these selected interviewed morons as “everybody.”If they wanted to, a news staff could find, in a town, a hundred people who would be outraged at what’s going on with toy guns. But they don’t want to.In other words, it’s a psyop.And by implication, it adds fuel to the idea that any angry person is suffering from some sort of mental disorder, like the fictional Oppositional Defiance Disorder.A kid brings a toy gun to school.The authorities go into a dither. They suspend the kid and call the cops and go off about “protecting the community.”A TV news crew moves in. They talk to residents. They screen them. They choose “rational people” to interview. They reject the ones who are outraged, whose blood is boiling. They don’t interview them.This is called casting. It’s finding actors who are real people. The real people are chosen for their “balanced and concerned” reactions.It’s a stage play. It’s a movie.You could go into that town with a camera and find a hundred people who are very, very angry at what the school and the cops did. You could interview them. You could let them show their anger on camera. You could let them reveal their extreme outrage in full flower.There is another angle to the official news psyop.Step one: The news staffs are consciously choosing interviewees who back up the astonishing actions of the school and the cops. To an authentically sane mind, what the interviewees are saying is staggering and it doesn’t compute.Step two: But after dozens of these toy gun stories are run on the news, the mind begins to waver. It begins to doubt itself (unless it’s committed and strong and has some actual principles in tow).Step three: And this doubt, the production of this doubt, is exactly what the psyop is aimed at engendering.The doubt has a way of spreading. Other news stories that don’t add up begin to make sense to a doubting mind. It’s called passive acceptance.“Let’s see. The parents yanked their kid out of the hospital because they didn’t like the doctors and they got a second opinion. The second opinion said the child could stay at home with the parents, but Child Protective Services came and took the child away. Hmm…I don’t like that but I guess CPS knows what it’s doing…they’re the professionals…”The mind rejects its own conclusions and opts for passive acceptance.Anybody who is truly angry with good cause is really weird and “has a problem.” Anger is bad.When is the last time you saw a person running for public office who was coming from a place of real and visible and seismic outrage, justified outrage, who based his whole campaign on that outrage?When was the last time such a candidate won a race for a major office in this country?The psyop says, “Such people are unbalanced. There’s no telling what they might do.”To put it another way, when was the last time you saw a machine that was angry? Never. And the America that’s being created, day after day, is all about turning humans into machines.A citizen says, “Billy brought a toy gun to school. Yes, the principal was harsh in his judgment and punishment. I see that. At the same time, there is a great deal of fear these days. So so the suspension was understandable. Billy needed to apologize. He needed to be taught a better kind of behavior. This is a tricky problem. It’s not easy to solve. We have to be compassionate for everyone concerned…”That’s the comment of a human turning into a machine. A machine that spits out “reasonable” observations.That human was selected to be interviewed. He was chosen. He was put on camera.And millions of mushy “tolerant and compassionate” viewers agree with what he says. They buy the machine. They want the machine. They like the machine. They aspire to be the machine.This is all about operant conditioning, and the goal is to make a free and independent human into a socialized mechanism.What’s called New Age Philosophy, this part of it, was created intentionally, as an op, to generate passive acceptance masquerading as higher consciousness. Socialization. An underpinning for the succeeding wave of political correctness.The news has a very strong card to play with its viewing audience: “See, this is real. These are real stories and we’re interviewing real people. This isn’t fiction. We aren’t making anything up.”But of course they are making it up. They are creating fiction. They’re choosing people to interview as casting directors would. This person over here doesn’t fit the story line, he’s too outraged. No good. This person over here is perfect. He looks and sounds respectable, and he thinks toy guns are wrong, but he comes across as reasonable. We want him for the role.Over the long haul, we’re talking about nothing less than the creation of an archetype for the viewer: the Interviewee. In thousands of newscasts, this archetype is shaped and sculpted, until the viewer comes to expect it.If he doesn’t see it on the news, if he sees something else, he rejects it.“That (interviewee) isn’t real. That doesn’t fit.”Worse yet, the archetype of Interviewee comes to represent the archetype of Citizen. This is what a citizen is.And the corollary: anything (anybody) else isn’t a real citizen.The movie called the news is, by this process, inventing cartoons of life. With the ability to present thousands and thousands of these cartoons every night, with that power, the news creates reality. People come to accept the cartoon as authentic. Then they demand the cartoon, because…They want something real.This is the absurdity.Government agencies like DHS are aware of this phenomenon, and they play it to the hilt. They meet with newspeople and train them on how to cover catastrophes and major crimes.This training reinforces the basic slant of the news, offering suggestions and recommendations on how to present these events to the public.In return, news networks tell government what they need, what they are looking for.This is the grand meeting and collaboration of two major cartoon organizations, feeding each other, and feeding off each other.Television news has become a kind of judiciary, bolstering its case by bringing witnesses on camera who fit the portrait of realism it has created over decades of programming.And the truth? The truth has become a hated and shunned commodity. It would not only upset all applecarts, it would look false. It would lack the style the public has come to accept as the only legitimate fashion statement.The mind has been prepared, primped, and conditioned to want fashion, not as a substitute, not as accoutrement, not as add-on, but as the central core.Such is the power of art. Not great art, but the worst and most shallow and obvious art. The art of mass mind control.Well, it wasn’t going to be Rembrandt, was it? It was going to be, and is, a portrait of the locked in, locked down, perfectly ordinary citizen, credible to the nth degree because it seems to lack the ability to speak anything other than truth:The interviewee.The invention of television news.

#16 b on 05.10.13 at 9:18 pm

Sales constant in Ottawa, prices up 3% yoy. No slowdown here yet. Guess those government “cuts” were really just an illusion.

#17 If you are interested in condo stats please vote on my site on 05.10.13 at 9:19 pm

If you would like to see stats for Condos like the ones I am currently posting for houses please let me know by voting on my site
http://recharts.blogspot.ca

The poll is at the top side of the right column

#18 Victor V on 05.10.13 at 9:27 pm

#15 Smoking Man

“Anger is bad.When is the last time you saw a person running for public office who was coming from a place of real and visible and seismic outrage, justified outrage, who based his whole campaign on that outrage?When was the last time such a candidate won a race for a major office in this country?”

Rob Ford wood get angry and disagree with you’re commant.

#19 Smoking Man on 05.10.13 at 9:27 pm

hence the my above plazerizrd post explains why homes are ridiculous priced, why the herd kept buying. And garth the tru man of logic who flipped the bird to the machine can’t get it right on real estate., he’s fighting the machine.. F it, use the machine to your advantage.

#20 Soylent Green is People on 05.10.13 at 9:28 pm

Let the Privatization of Social Services Begin! Time to promote volunteering as we are eliminating the social safety-net. The problem: How to maximize the funneling of collective resources into private pockets? The solution: Convincing the public to take over funding of social services.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2013/05/10/diane_finley_seeks_market_solution_to_deeplyrooted_social_problems_goar.html

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#21 Dan from Calgary on 05.10.13 at 9:29 pm

Smoking Man, you is crazy!

From my beautiful and inexpensive rental in Calgary (battled the agency back to a 10% increase for the past 4 years), I walk past many condos on my way to work. The word may be that the Alberta market is as hot as ever, however I disagree. Despite seeing some of my friends fall to a mortgage in the last couple of weeks, there are so many for sale signs lasting weeks and months this spring. To stereotype my buyer friends, I ask them about the numbers and the financials behind their decisions. The overwhelming answer is “its time to buy.” There is no financial thought behind it, just a lust to have a place they can paint some god-aweful colour that flies in the face of resale. I’ve learned to not share my opinion, for fear of being the leper who rents…

When I first moved here 4 years ago, real estate signs didn’t exist. This was only shortly after 2008, and things were still red-hot. Today, someone at a sign shop is relieved for the inventory that doesn’t move.

I work in O&G, we’ve been asked to start tightening our belts as of this week. The writing is on the wall with the lack of pipeline capacity and bad press for anything that burns and comes from ground in Alberta. To my friends who swapped walk to work arrangements in reasonable rent brackets for Deerfoot commutes and property taxes, congratulations and I will not buy you a subsidy lunch in 2 years time.

#22 Seven Stars and Orion on 05.10.13 at 9:29 pm

Smoking Man,
You need a manifesto editor, dude.

#23 Johnny D on 05.10.13 at 9:31 pm

Garth,
What if house prices don’t fall in Canada but our currency does… say back to 70-80 cents per USD. Couldn’t a lower currency spark a return of manufacturing jobs to Canada… More jobs = rekindled real estate market. The average Canadian wage would be the same or lower as compared to the US even if we get paid more CAD.

Essentially you’d be correct that prices would fall but the big giant catch would be… Not if you deal with Canadian currency as most of us do. What is your thoughts or anyone’s thoughts on this?

#24 Dan from Calgary on 05.10.13 at 9:32 pm

I’d send them this link from the FP, unfortunately they’d rather trade their comfort for a lawn to mow and a 1.5 hour commute.

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/04/05/canadian-housing-downturn/?__lsa=3fcb-f4b2

#25 quasi g bug on 05.10.13 at 9:33 pm

Stocks up, Bonds up, REITS up, Houses up….
What a good time we are having! Hope you enjoyed it.

Mr. Finance Minister, no need to ban 30 year mortgate. Too little to late. Somebody down south is going to do it for you, for a much better and much faster result! Oh well, at least, Minister got a courtsey call.

Click the link and find out how…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-10/hilsenrath-tapering-article-out

#26 Boomer21 on 05.10.13 at 9:35 pm

#15 SM
Come on all of a sudden you can spell (for the most part). WTF are you talking about! This is a RE/financial blog not a forum for your twisted ideas about education, mind control and UFO’s. Stay on point or go away!
Garth, I appreciate the fact that you respect free speech but SM is over the top and not contributing anything to this blog except some sad twisted humor. Very tiresome. I mostly skim over his comments but this one hit a nerve and made me cranky.
Love the blog anyway.

Ect

#27 The Propeht Elijah on 05.10.13 at 9:36 pm

Calgary and area listings:

March 27 – 5306
Today – 6042

Slowly but surely?

#28 Smoking Man on 05.10.13 at 9:41 pm

Dame the crazy voice In side my head

Look what he’s doing to me…..

#29 Josh In Calgary on 05.10.13 at 9:50 pm

Calgary is different … Until it isn’t. Low unemployment and high wages will keep a steady stream of greater fools and prices high. Until a bust in oil comes, which always happens. So while it may not coincide exactly with the timing in the rest of the country it will be worse when it does eventually happen. That’s because everyone’s jobs AND housing prices depend on oil and gas. So when a bust hits its a double whammy. Ok if you’re established, but many new buyers won’t know what hit’em. I just sold a house and it took 6 months. Even in cow town F’s new rules are slowing things down.

#30 JimmyAAA on 05.10.13 at 9:54 pm

#6 Ex-Cowtown on 05.10.13 at 8:46 pm
And it just gets better in the Cowtown oil patch. A little known Alberta government program, the LLR is stripping hundreds of millions of $$$ of working capital from smaller and more vulnerable oil companies. The LLR was originally designed to be a deposit fund for abandoning oil wells in the event that the company that operated them went bankrupt.

Over the past several years, the Alberta government has ratcheted the deposits higher and higher such that many smaller companies find that much of their working capital is now tied up with government deposits. This threatens the viability of the company to the point that many WILL NOW GO BANKRUPT. And BANKRUPT COMPANIES don’t hire people.

Luckily, the Alberta government will be able to say “Whew… it’s good that we took all that $$$ from those people. Look at what happened; They all went bankrupt!!!!!! Aren’t we smart!!!

Unintended but perfectly foreseeable consequences. Thanks for comin’ out to Wildrose Country!

Dumbasses.

====================================

Thanks for the hyperbole. The deposit was an average of $50 per well site. And there were more wellsites being abandoned then were being remediated. How much was the rachet – 4 -5 times as as much. Give me a number.

Little tip – when companies mention government regulation for the reason they went bankrupt – it usually means that the only way they could make money was to break the law. They almost always unethical. And look where lack of ethcs is getting. Don’t you read this blog?

Or do you just believe that a job should exist no matter the cost. I hear this a lot, its dumb.

Who cares about the festering cess pool in the middle of that farmer’s field. I had a job for 18 months.

Here is a lot more information.

http://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/2013/04/orphan-wells-saskatchewan/

http://www.albertaviews.ab.ca/2011/03/01/what-lies-beneath/

http://environment.alberta.ca/02862.html

#31 Smoking Man on 05.10.13 at 9:58 pm

#21 Dan from Calgary on 05.10.13 at 9:29 pm
Smoking Man, you is crazy

…..

Thank you. There is no greater horror than becoming normal.

#32 TurnerNation on 05.10.13 at 9:58 pm

How to talk to a Track6er – if you must: co-worker moved into a 650k Leslieville Special. A 100-year-old Semi of unknown provenance. Proudly settled with 14th generation raccoons?

#33 A Nightmare on Bay Street on 05.10.13 at 10:02 pm

This push from Flaherty shows how weak politicians are against the financial world.

Flaherty changed the rules last year but the banks are still handing over 30 or 35 years mortgages. And not the small, dark, greassy banks. The top banks.

So this year, Flaherty is back with his laws and his demands. Same as last year except he added : “please”, in a cute little postcard he sent to the banks.

Soft landing ?

No. Never.

Big banks are crack addicts.

This market will climb his way to the very edge of stupidity and cupidity and will fall hard (really hard) on the other side.

We are almost there.

#34 Smoking Man on 05.10.13 at 10:09 pm

#22 Seven Stars and Orion on 05.10.13 at 9:29 pm
Smoking Man,You need a manifesto editor, dude

Huh my manifesto is simple, booze and hookers till death do us part, how hard is that..

#35 LTRFTW on 05.10.13 at 10:12 pm

Prices won’t fall so much but what you get for your dollar will rise. The “fixer-upper” that needs 50 grand just so you can live in it will be complete and ready to go for the same price. Remember that the numbers quoted by the real estate gang are averages in a very broad category. Not a very precise way to compare which way the market is trending. SFH can be a three bedroom 1900 Sq. Ft. that needs lots of work or a 5 bedroom 3000 Sq. Ft. completely remodeled palace. Two years ago the ” Dump” may have sold for 500 grand but now the “Bigger and Better” goes for the same price. The stats will only show that another SFH in the market went for 500 Grand, i.e. no price drop.

Almost all other commodities are sold by the pound, Gallon, Sq. Foot etc. A tee shirt is a tee shirt and a flight to Hawaii is a flight to Hawaii. It’s easy to know if the price is rising or falling. Not so with Real Estate.

Don’t look at the price for a Condo or a SFH, look at what you get for your money.

#36 Adam Smith on 05.10.13 at 10:21 pm

the news of the year: Fed about to start reducing the QE.

Expect:
1. DJ down 2 k point on Monday
2. Bond market bloodbath

aligning some side cash for action.

P.S. don’t sell on Monday no matter the action.
Expect announcement that due to the crises QE would double. DJ back to 15 k , 17 k

#37 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator Ⓤ on 05.10.13 at 10:27 pm

#188 Smoking Man on 05.10.13 at 8:28 pm

#185 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator Ⓤ on 05.10.13 at 7:41 pm

Proof, you want proof?

==================================

Man, I though the 60′s were over…both 1860′s and 1960′s.

Ask a narcissitic ego -maniac a straight question…turns it into a inebriated pretzel logic

OUTED/FAIL

#38 Smoking Man on 05.10.13 at 10:52 pm

#37 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator Ⓤ on 05.10.13 at 10:27

Your just jelouse, Tom Vu scares me… Why. Been threw the UCC

I know shit

#39 What about CMHC? on 05.10.13 at 10:56 pm

Calgary remains delusional for now…yes, they all forgot the 80s.

I know a Wal-Mart $16/hr employee who bought a house worth half a mil.

#40 ryan on 05.10.13 at 11:03 pm

Hey Smoking Man,

Your plagiarized post is right on the money and is the straight way of how we are being conditioned. Anybody disagrees with that post is obviously in denial and is too afraid to look too deep into the finer intricacies of how society operates. Real estate and financial market is about as far as they want to extend into that realm. Anything further would make them really uncomfortable and they choose to go back to sleep. They will attack on your posts calling you a conspirasist, whacko ufo guy, but really where in that post is he referring to these things. He’s just pointing out the obvious that really no one wants to hear and makes them too uncomfortable to face. It was one of the few posts I actually agree with that smoking man posted and it is an utter correlation to how people are manipulated by the real estate market.

#41 Tom Vu on 05.10.13 at 11:06 pm

#34 Smoking Man on 05.10.13 at 10:09 pm

#22 Seven Stars and Orion on 05.10.13 at 9:29 pm
Smoking Man,You need a manifesto editor, dude

Huh my manifesto is simple, booze and hookers till death do us part, how hard is that..

=================================

Only person I know that can do self -serve lap dance

PS Pass hat…obviously Garth is running out of ammo in his bunker

#42 RayofLight on 05.10.13 at 11:06 pm

Smoking Man # 15

What’s your point?

#43 InvestX on 05.10.13 at 11:10 pm

“mortgages at 2.89% ”

It’s not different here, but only when it comes to the possibility of prolonged low rates, like in Japan?

“No place is different, because people aren’t. ”

What about the Japanese?

#44 Wise Guy on 05.10.13 at 11:11 pm

I rent in Toronto, but also believe that the LEAFS will beat the Bruins in 7….am I delusional?

LOL

#45 george on 05.10.13 at 11:11 pm

Thoughts on the Electronic Printing Press

#46 DaleFromCalgary on 05.10.13 at 11:18 pm

#30 – The easiest way around LLR is simply to slow the well to a seep and call it a stripper well. Alternatively, sell it to a numbered company as a “temporary” shut-in and let it sit. If worse comes to worse, the mineral rights owner (assuming it is freehold, not CPR or Crown) will demand it be pooled, in which case you let the neighbour wells capture the flow.

I re-emphasize: Houses out in Cranston or Royal Oal are not being sold to petro-executives or geologists, they are being sold to tradesmen who are probably building SFHs in the adjacent suburb. The oilsands are designed

#47 george on 05.10.13 at 11:24 pm

“There were 34,000 more people working in the public sector in April, while there was little change in the number of private sector employees and the self-employed.

Over the previous 12 months, public sector employment increased 2.6% or 94,000, while growth in self-employment was 2.2% (+59,000), the bulk of which was in the first quarter of 2013. The number of private sector employees was little changed compared with 12 months earlier, as gains in the second half of 2012 were offset by losses in 2013.”

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/130510/dq130510a-eng.htm?HPA

#48 ryan on 05.10.13 at 11:28 pm

Furthermore on SM’s initial post,

I noticed Victor V lashed out grouping your posts in as one of those crazy conspirator posts, UFO’s, gold nuts etc. Victor V chooses to shut off anything beyond RE or financials. You made up vulnerable that is why he lashed out. Some people choose to shut it off after a certain point and you have to respect that and move along.
The machine will give you some truth from time to time, unfortunately they mix it in with tin foil hat type talk shows (George Noory on AM 640 comes to mind) so it gets muzzled into the crazy talk and becomes easily dismissed by the average citizen.
The key to life I find is to strike a balance. On one hand if you uncover to much truth and accept it and its not that hard too because if you dig deep enough a lot of dots line up, you would lose your mind and wouldn’t be able to function in society, because the average citizen is asleep and you would probably turn into a vagabond, be committed a mental institution, or worse take your life.
On the other side of the coin, you can’t be too asleep to know when you’re getting screwed. For example, buying overpriced real estate, getting scammed by publishers clearing house saying u won a million bucks, protesting about heightened tax rates, protesting slave labour out in Bangladesh. So basically keeping your survival skills and seeing through enough things that don’t add up and being able to avoid many financial pitfalls and standing up for the average man when things are unjust and keeping your mouth shut in public because people will think your nuts because your not thinking on the same wavelength. Keeping your friends and family and thus your sanity.
So its fine balance you must strike in life you can’t sway too far in either direction or you will be miserable.
I said my piece so there, I’d be out drinking with my friends if it weren’t for me recovering from a food virus, so had the time to comment.
Appreciate the blog Garth, keep it coming.

#49 Barry Lainof on 05.10.13 at 11:32 pm

“Thanks for the hyperbole. The deposit was an average of $50 per well site. And there were more wellsites being abandoned then were being remediated. How much was the rachet – 4 -5 times as as much. Give me a number.”

Why don’t you try $50,000 per well, rather than $50 !

Next, with lower gas prices – nat gas wells are uneconomic faster. Hence, reduced commercial reserves creating more shut in wells. Resulting in a requirement for more well deposits. Conventional oil wells are next.

I will grant you that the junior oil & gas company executives and their investors should have seen this coming. Greed and dreams of phat retirements have now turned to banks calling loans. Many with personal guarantees. Ouch !

It’s not different in Alberta, BC, Saskatchewan or anywhere else in our once great country. Over production in natural resources, finance guys making money on fees rather than a percentage of added value to their clients portfolios and real estate based on debt accumulation rather than as a reasonable percentage of net worth.

My hope is that Canadians will be able to gently “pump the brakes” before the major bump I see ahead. Not the end of the world stuff – just damned inconvenient for retirees, young adults just starting out, middle age couples with the real 300-500 % debt to annual income (let’s not forget that 40% tax “haircut” for the Feds, Provincial and Municipal governments off of the “annual income”).

#50 Pas Ici! on 05.10.13 at 11:36 pm

In montreal we do not have a bubble in SFHs, and certainly not in the million+ homes which keep being bought by rich foreigners. Only the condo market is heading down, but all signs say that the drop will be little.

Mon deux cents,
- Pierrot Putin

#51 Victor V on 05.10.13 at 11:40 pm

http://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/2013/05/06/why_its_harder_for_selfemployed_to_get_a_mortgage.html

Before the federal government tightened up mortgage rules last year, Haque notes, lenders would assess the risk level of a self-employed borrower based on that person’s credit-rating and the size of their down-payment. They’d also factor in the applicant’s savings, debt repayment history and whether their business had healthy cash-flow. “If it all made sense and sat well in my gut, I would move forward with the file,” Haque says.

New mortgage rules mean the assessment of a self-employed applicant’s income has become far more rigorous. Lenders will now analyze the average income for the industry a self-employed applicant works in, and study the person’s employment history and earnings in the field. “(Their stated income) should be reasonable, based on the industry sector, the type of busines and the length of time the operation has been in business,” says Jennifer Bissonnette, an RBC mortgage specialist.

Banks are scrutinizing the tax documents of self-employed applicants more carefully, and focussing more closely on the expenses being written off — the cost of a vehicle or of advertising, for example — and how this might explain discrepancies between the applicant’s stated income and how much they end up reporting to Canada Revenue Agency (CRA). “We’re now required to say, ‘Help us, Mr. Customer, understand how your income shifts from, say, $80,000 to $40,000 (on your tax return)? Provide us with your business financials to show what you’re writing off,’ ” Haque notes.

Although there may be more people self-employed these days, it doesn’t mean lenders will be making it any easier for them to secure a mortgage. “I don’t blame the banks,” says Vick Vij. “They just haven’t figured out a system on their end to help them navigate through (self-employed peoples’) issues.”

#52 Cowpie on 05.10.13 at 11:47 pm

I have to disagree with Al Gore whole heartedly.

Everything north of, and especially including, Edmonton is a sewer.

#53 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator Ⓤ on 05.10.13 at 11:55 pm

#38 Smoking Man on 05.10.13 at 10:52 pm

#37 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator Ⓤ on 05.10.13 at 10:27

Your just jelouse, Tom Vu scares me… Why. Been threw the UCC

I know shit

================================

I agree…so STFU.

Howz yer haqquer doing (….capisce??????)

#54 Cory on 05.11.13 at 12:18 am

“Mario Toneguzzi, the Herald’s pumper-in-chief ”

This guys and his articles make me want to puke every time I read them.

#55 Red Deer Cave Man on 05.11.13 at 12:32 am

The Calgary papers make me want to puke all over there RE BS when I read them. Just need to patient…. landlord left town for 6 months. alone with whole house- $600.00 month. Done!!

#56 VanPerfecto on 05.11.13 at 12:42 am

The condo market will crater in Van because those with few coins in the bank will no longer be able to play this monopoly game. The only thing that will bring down the single family housing market is the CRA cracking down on people working oversees and making these people pay Canadian taxes combined with boomers needing to sell their homes to finance their retirement. If the CRA doesn’t crack down then when the boomers sell the homes will just be snapped up. It’s unbelievable the so called hobbit home selling for well over 2 million dollars on a crummy lot nowhere near the ocean. Can someone tell me based on Canadian wages how so many people working in Vancouver can buy homes for over a million, bulldoze and then rebuild??!?!?! The stats on what Vancouverites make and what is happening here doesn’t ad up.

#57 Bubu on 05.11.13 at 1:50 am

#9 Ford Prefect on 05.10.13 at 8:59 pm

But yet, they are still asking a fab price of 100K for a 20 year old tin can “Mobile Home” with a monthly $500 pad fee to boot.
What was the price of those cans 20 years ago when they bought those?
How can anyone justify those prices? More valuable with age???
After all, rising value on a piece of land is definitely not the case here, the only price, or ” value” that has risen here is the pad fee.
Scratching my head on this one…

#58 SilverMeridian on 05.11.13 at 1:50 am

SilverMeridian Greater Ottawa surReal Estate Market Update

“The Ottawa market is doing well, and gaining ground back since the “cool-down” of the market for the past five months,” says Tim Lee, President of the Ottawa Real Estate Board. “We are on par with the strong sales of last April, and the resale market is up 34.9 per cent since last month. With the late onset of warmer weather, the traditional “spring market” saw its upswing a little later this year. With interest rates continuing to be low, Ottawa remains a healthy, stable market.”

It’s stable and healthy market alright, as long as you choose to ignore other indicators such as Residential new listings sitting at aprox. 3,500 new listings this year, a five hundred units increase over the same time last year, or Residential active listings approx 7,100 strong and beating the same month of the previous year by more then 1000 new units on the market. In comparison, a Residential Months of Inventory stats a year ago were hovering just around 3.8, but this year it is sitting at a solid 4.6 So the “Healthy and stable market” apparently means that you can ignore the most important indicators and to buck up your claim by the least important ones, such as Residential Sales Activity, where the difference with last year is almost indistinguishable, when you look at it on the graph. So, it appear to be that the first rule of the Real Estate business to ignore the biggest differences between the most important indicators and to bring up the minuscule increases in the least important indicators such as Residential Sales Activities, which is this year up just a tad more than the year ago.

#59 Bubu on 05.11.13 at 2:12 am

Here is an interesting article on the Dutch RE situation:
“A report published Thursday by the real estate industry in the Netherlands states that the average home price is now 18% lower than it was at the peak in 2008, while detached homes lost 20%-25% (March 2013 YoY prices fell 6.8%, says Eurostat). A separate, earlier, report estimated that 20% of homes, or over 1 million, are now underwater.”
but:
“The core problem is simple: from 1995 to 2008 home prices more than tripled (rose 200%+). Hence, if we round off to a 20% drop from peak levels, or 60% from 1995 levels when prices were a third of what they were in 2008, there’s still an increase of about 150% from the starting levels that needs to be dealt with. We can discount for, and let’s be generous, perhaps 50% for overall price inflation, but that still leaves us with a 100% increase, which is quite a bit more than the 60% absorbed so far.”

http://theautomaticearth.com/Finance/dutch-delusion-europes-core-she-rots-some-more.html

#60 Rural Rick on 05.11.13 at 3:27 am

Schools out. Way to ring the bell Smoking Man.
Kudos maestro

#61 john on 05.11.13 at 3:48 am

Garth, what do you think about this article.

One of the legendary hedge fund guy steve eisman who famously shorted the us subprime in 2006 is shorting Canada realestate

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100726168

#62 Buy? Curious? on 05.11.13 at 4:21 am

I’m calling Shak later on today and find out what he (or she) is all about. You know, find out what the deal is. I’ll report back later.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbZb8cHKRaA

Leaf fans are the domesticated cows of professional sports.

#63 Aussie Roy on 05.11.13 at 4:26 am

No sub prime mortgages in Australia – Just TOXIC loans

Tens of thousands of families around the country have been given ‘toxic loans’, allowed to borrow more from the banks than they can afford.

According to Denise Brailey from the Banking and Finance Consumers Support Association there is an estimated $100 billion worth of toxic loans.

She says the people who have been allowed to borrow more than they could afford all made the same mistake by accepting their lenders’ guarantees.

Their loans were based on falsified and fraudulent information; and now these families are facing financial ruin and risk being left broke and homeless.

Claudia Azoury was allowed to borrow $2.4 million from ANZ bank, despite being unemployed and on $254 a week from Centrelink with no life savings.

She says it was because her Royal Guardian broker wrote a fraudulent loan application.

“The broker had falsified and produced a fictitious group certificate to the lender stating that I was in receipt of approximately $179,000 per annum,” she said.

The broker also added an $800,000 investment property, rent for the Sydney home she lived in and made Ms Azoury 10 years younger

http://au.news.yahoo.com/today-tonight/latest/article/-/17096524/toxic-loans/

#64 xyz on 05.11.13 at 6:38 am

I can’t imagine the high RE prices in Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary. Living in Ottawa, prices are a bit lower but I find those even too expensive. $400 or $500 thousand for a house is way too much money. How can prices more than double in 10 years? None of this makes sense

If this government wants to build a middle class, then housing needs to be affordable. The next generation is deep in the.red because of the cost of education, they have week prospects for finding work afterand to finish this picture, housing is out of reach because it has ballooned. The lost generation.

#65 Steve French on 05.11.13 at 6:40 am

It’s really different Down Under.

Australia is the “lucky country.”

http://au.news.yahoo.com/today-tonight/latest/article/-/17096524/toxic-loans/

…not looking so lucky now though….

#66 bigrider on 05.11.13 at 7:23 am

“Mario Toneguzzi” hmmnn ..I wonder what his ethnic background is…LOL

Is there anyone in Canada at all who builds, sells or mortgages RE that is NOT of same ethnicity ?? ..LOL

Stop dissing my Italian friends, you knuckle-dragging biker. — Garth

#67 AK on 05.11.13 at 7:49 am

#61 john on 05.11.13 at 3:48 am
“Garth, what do you think about this article.

One of the legendary hedge fund guy steve eisman who famously shorted the us subprime in 2006 is shorting Canada realestate”
——————————————————————–
Eisman will be wrong on his “short” calls.

If home Capital Group(HCG) goes under $50.00, it will be time to “backup the truck”.

“Home Capital Group Inc. (Home Capital) is a holding company. The Company operates primarily through its federally regulated subsidiary, Home Trust Company (Home Trust). Home Trust offers deposits, residential and non-residential mortgage lending, securitization of insured residential first mortgage products, consumer lending, Visa products and payment card services. It operates through two segments: mortgage lending and consumer lending. The mortgage lending segment consists of mortgage lending, securitization of insured mortgage loans and secured loans. The mortgage lending segment includes single family residential lending and multi-unit residential lending, as well as non-residential lending. The consumer lending segment consists of credit cards, PSiGate and individual loans to customers of retail businesses. Licensed to conduct business across Canada, Home Trust has branch offices in Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia, Nova Scotia and Quebec.”

#68 Deb on 05.11.13 at 7:49 am

Congratulations, Garth, for being recognized with the Top Canadian Personal Finance Blogs Award. I have been dropping by since the beginning, and have learned a lot by doing so. Accordingly, you have been, and will continue to be, one of my favourites.
Reason over passion.

#69 economictsunami on 05.11.13 at 7:49 am

Commodities soften.

RE related economic multiplier activity swoons.

“You’re richer then you think.” Your “riches” replaced by hidden higher bank charges/ investment fees & taxes.

Unemployment rises/ new jobs: temp in nature or no benefits/ low pay.

Consumer not sustainably durable due to impaired balance sheets. (debt to income) Discretionary income eaten up by hidden inflation.

Did we squander the last 4 or 5 years; or made appropriate balance sheet adjustments?…

#70 Luc on 05.11.13 at 8:50 am

New study talks about the effects of more homeownership on jobs at…
http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/do-high-home-ownership-rates-really-kill-the-labour-market-1.1276515

#71 jess on 05.11.13 at 9:06 am

19 Smoking Man

In this “Digital Disconnect” excerpt, provided courtesy of McChesney and The New Press, he writes of the growing corrupting influence of advertising on the net.
=======

opposition to gun background checks using “moms” in ad brought to you by the American Future Fund.

The New Hampshire Moms In Ad Defending Ayotte’s Background Check Vote Are Actually GOP Activists
By Igor Volsky and Josh Israel on May 10, 2013 at 10:06 am
http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2013/05/10/1992721/the-new-hampshire-moms-in-ad-defending-ayottes-background-check-vote-are-actually-gop-activists/

——————–
accounting tricks – Moody’s methodology

Moody’s Playing Dangerous Games With Public Pension Funds
Tuesday, 07 May 2013 09:29
By Dean Baker, Truthout | Op-Ed
================

MICHAEL PENN, TOKYO

http://truth-out.org/news/item/16250-japanese-movement-against-tpp-growing

#72 Canadian Watchdog on 05.11.13 at 10:03 am

Canada’s top subprime mortgage lending companies.

Macquarie Financial Ltd.
MCAP Service Corporation
Equitable Trust Company
Home Trust Company
Alberta Treasury Branches
Peoples Trust Company

#73 Daisy Mae on 05.11.13 at 10:07 am

11 Smoking Man: “Tom Vu, Daisy May, the Grim go to my last post from yesterday and let me know what you think…”

****************

Even after the heart has stopped, the brain functions for a few minutes. We have wild imaginations coupled with our beliefs. The ‘other side’ is an illusion.

#74 TurnerNation on 05.11.13 at 10:07 am

Something’s changed, this week. Definitely feeling the pall of an economic malaise slipping over our country. We are but a jewel in the Crown.

(As I always say the 2nd and 3rd World country get bombed; while we get ‘economically bombed’). Look how they’re reshaping the Middle East – country-by-country. As our Repeaters are regaling us with fantastical stories of rebels and WMD. Why did I always believe H would the one of perfection to oversee “Canada’s 9/11″ or whatever is planned.)

Now they are playing for keeps. No more of those Live Aid concerts or Save the Children. No more plaintive celeb. wails over “Saving Darfor” or wherever. That’s off the map. Total corporate control.

“We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”

#75 canadian on 05.11.13 at 10:18 am

According to the Urban Development Institute the development fee for an 800 sq ft condo in Vancouver is $80,000 . This is the problem in this country greedy government.Get out their and vote these greedy leeches out of office .

#76 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.11.13 at 10:35 am

This Financial Post “Family Finance” article blows my mind:
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/05/09/family-finance-burned-by-stocks/

Woman gives money to advisor, who loses $190k of it chasing oil and gold stocks.

Then, she gives up on “stocks” altogether, and buys $1M worth of rental properties!

She has over $1M in debt, and less than $100k in non-RE assets.

#77 AK on 05.11.13 at 10:37 am

The Canadian takeover of U.S. real estate

The Great Canadian Takeover

#78 From Mississauga with Love on 05.11.13 at 10:50 am

I have seen this sign as well. It is all over Mississauga, at least where the East Indian contingents are.

And they say there is no 100% financing…

#79 The Prophet Elijah on 05.11.13 at 11:00 am

#27 The Propeht Elijah on 05.10.13 at 9:36 pm

Calgary and area listings:

March 27 – 5306
Today – 6042

Slowly but surely?
———————————————————
This weekend 6252

#80 John S on 05.11.13 at 11:06 am

Finally, some economists establish a link between deteriorating labour market and rising home ownership.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/challenge-dogma-owning-home-182926523.html

#81 The Prophet Elijah on 05.11.13 at 11:09 am

#15 Smoking Man on 05.10.13 at 9:12 pm

When to ship faced to post plajeriz with like minded.

There are two ways to cast a movie. You bring in professional actors and have them read, or you go out and hire “real people” for the parts.The second way is sometimes used for the cameos.That’s the case with the completely insane arrests, school suspensions, and general harassment leveled at kids and parents who “are guilty of” toy guns, fingers shaped like guns, pictures of guns, guns that make bubbles.Here’s how it
———————————————————-
This prolonged post can be summed up by what Nazi propaganda minister use to say if you make a lie big enough, loud enough, and repeat it enough then the masses will fall for it.
Remember Bre-X, if the whole world believes it then it must be true cause millions can’t be wrong. Or can they?

#82 Ann on 05.11.13 at 11:11 am

re-7 Millionaire Machinist on 05.10.13 at 8:48 pm
Oh, how I wish the BOC would rise interest rates by 5% ONE SHOT (just for 2-3 months!!) just to see all these slaves squirm (and yell, and cry!!!)….Mr. Poloz, are you reading this?? Please?
.——————————————————————-
What a great wish, a very hurt full small ‘man’

#83 The Prophet Elijah on 05.11.13 at 11:13 am

#67 AK on 05.11.13 at 7:49 am

#61 john on 05.11.13 at 3:48 am
“Garth, what do you think about this article.

One of the legendary hedge fund guy steve eisman who famously shorted the us subprime in 2006 is shorting Canada realestate”
——————————————————————–
Eisman will be wrong on his “short” calls.

If home Capital Group(HCG) goes under $50.00, it will be time to “backup the truck”.
——————————————————-
And Eisman is shorting this after Home Capital put out decent results. But no matter the Hedge Funds from Wallstreet have seen it all before, after all they were the engineers of sub prime lending in the US.
The real downturn for RE is just around the corner.

#84 Alberta Ed on 05.11.13 at 11:14 am

I love creative writing, which is why I always enjoy reading Mario’s screeds in the Herald.

#85 Shankar on 05.11.13 at 11:18 am

They desperately want a soft landing for real estate so we can avoid a US-style gut of the middle class,

?? Are you sure about that man ? Look at their actions during the last years.

#86 Ooga Booga on 05.11.13 at 11:22 am

If you haven’t seen it yet, I heartily recommend the new HBO news series “VICE”. This week’s episode covers China’s ghost cities.

#87 bigrider on 05.11.13 at 11:24 am

#66- Garth to Bigrider- ” Stop dissing my Italian friends you knuckle- dragging biker”

?… Italian ?… huh ? where did I say that ??

I thought he was one of your tea sipping, Anglo, white as wonder bread , Triumph riding buddies ?

#88 thiuscountryisgoing down the toilet on 05.11.13 at 11:26 am

I’ll remember back the forty or fifty years I was involved in real estate from family landlording , building, appraising, res and global highrise sales, development to off shore marketing…for those of you with zero experience and the long term memory of a paper clip.

Shock……mortgage bound ‘joe lunchbox’ properties will maintain their prices within a few percent and waffle in a soft trend for roughly 10 to 14 years. There will be no money made and you will see a lost decade of money while you pay the interest on the death grip.

This ‘catch up with inflation trick’ is what has fooled the previous generations into believing that real estate always goes up….including gas bread and bananna’s…….but as I said ..people have no memory for such things.

Specualtive properties ( out of the reach of a majority of buyers) that are new to the market will fall precipitously…as much as 50% until demand meets the supply curve…..exactly as has happened in the past 50 years. They will not gain back their value until the late stages of the next rally….approx 12 to 14 years from now. Todays builders and speculators with multiple projects on spec are toast…but who cares…they form a miniscule segment of the overall market. In this case F is smart to be throwing them under the bus……history is on his side.

The number of real tards will collapse by 50% , the stats are always the same….until we get a new crop of unemployed housewives ready to ‘have a career’.

Wash rinse repeat…expect a sideways market with some eye popping price adjustments on new products ( but these will come to market so slowly you might not notice if you busy) and no collapse….sorry vultures.

For the guy that bemoaned a house on his street selling in the mid 7′s……….a) be patient….these products have no function in the market and will be devalued. b) 700K will seem like 300K in 15 years time with inflation……presto……inflation. The problem spec investors have is that they cannot hold through the cycle due to costs…..keep in mind it may be retarded once again by government interferance in the rate cycle that could extend the pain out 20 years with rising rates unable to cleanse the market.

Ergo…..nothing is going to happen that we haven’t seen before. It will be better to buy bank stocks over the next 15 years than houses……look at the long term rturn of TD for ex.

#89 CalgaryBoomer on 05.11.13 at 11:40 am

Here’s my take on Calgary in my area as I’ve been watching the MLS (in a sellers remorse kinda way) just to see if any changes are happening. Nothing statistical here, just an observation and feel.

Up until lately, houses were selling pretty quickly, especially when they were “relatively” good deals, which were gone in days or a couple of weeks of going up. Now I’m seeing houses sitting for longer and C/S stickers staying on some for a long time, especially houses above $600k. Still “sold” signs going up on those in the $450k and less range, just a slower pace. And of course I have no idea what the selling price is on those because only the cartel is allowed to know. For all we know, they aren’t selling at list price anymore and maybe much lower (can anyone with access tell us?).
Also saw a former grow-op that in the MLS ad used to say it was a remediated grow-op, now it doesn’t say that, it says “house restored to it’s former beauty!” Still there. Lol. I would say listing prices are lower than early spring and it feels a bit like June of 2007 out there.

Will be interesting to see what the next couple of months brings but maybe with the lack of rentals and the high rents in Calgary, the market will carry on for quite a while. But I remember how it all came to a grinding halt before. And for that reason…I’m out.

#90 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 05.11.13 at 11:49 am

#81 The Prophet Elijah on 05.11.13 at 11:09 am

Remember Bre-X, if the whole world believes it then it must be true cause millions can’t be wrong. Or can they?

==================================

Actually…don’t most live in Bre-X zone?

By that I mean nothing is really “REAL”, …our monetary system ,politicians etc.
…..
Remember the Monty Python sketch(Dam I can’t find it on line) where the housing shortage was fixed by a Hypnotist….that hi rises existed as long as you “believed “, BUT if you started to doubt the apartment would lean.

If people knew the TRUTH on most things…outfall be worse than Bre-X.

#91 AK on 05.11.13 at 11:56 am

#83 The Prophet Elijah on 05.11.13 at 11:13 am
——————————————————-
“And Eisman is shorting this after Home Capital put out decent results. But no matter the Hedge Funds from Wallstreet have seen it all before, after all they were the engineers of sub prime lending in the US.
The real downturn for RE is just around the corner.”
——————————————————————–
Have you also checked to see how many Hedge Funds have disappeared since 2008?

They don’t have a good track record. :-)

#92 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 05.11.13 at 12:12 pm

#88 thiuscountryisgoing down the toilet on 05.11.13 at 11:26

Excellent post…bang on….will comment later.

#93 YYC on 05.11.13 at 12:17 pm

Want house with $5000 downpayment?

See link below:

http://calgary.kijiji.ca/c-real-estate-house-rental-Why-rent-when-you-can-own-5K-down-W0QQAdIdZ483205723

#94 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 05.11.13 at 12:22 pm

#74 TurnerNation on 05.11.13 at 10:07 am

Something’s changed, this week. Definitely feeling the pall of an economic malaise slipping over our country. We are but a jewel in the Crown.

(As I always say the 2nd and 3rd World country get bombed; while we get ‘economically bombed’). Look how they’re reshaping the Middle East – country-by-country. As our Repeaters are regaling us with fantastical stories of rebels and WMD. Why did I always believe H would the one of perfection to oversee “Canada’s 9/11″ or whatever is planned.)

===================================

What people don’t realize…is we are post Saddam Iraq, we are post Qaddafi Libya….we have been conquered long ago…

All Wars are Bankers Wars. PERIOD

Countries that do not have a Central Bank that is simply a Bank of London franchise and try to hold out have this big bullseye on their back.

History has shown that when the Banksters see ANY threat to their global usury monopoly..OR another country setting up its own independent autonomous banking system …they start a war. They do not want to see competition and a system that actually works far better

Hence, we have peace because we have already surrendered to these Banksters.

If Harper stood up and said he would change the status quo, he would be” gone” in 6 months or less.

#95 Retired WI Boomer on 05.11.13 at 12:31 pm

Smoking Man’s posts. I seem to agree. Strange, but the well written posts were so welcome strangeness, unlike his previous blather. -Great content-

#96 CID on 05.11.13 at 12:49 pm

Smoking Man #11

Still alone?

#97 Victor V on 05.11.13 at 12:54 pm

#48 ryan

Lash out?

Show me where.

#98 Mike T on 05.11.13 at 12:59 pm

‘If you haven’t seen it yet, I heartily recommend the new HBO news series “VICE”. This week’s episode covers China’s ghost cities.’

Thanks

I recommend this in return, VICE guide to travel

http://www.vice.com/en_ca/the-vice-guide-to-travel/the-vice-guide-to-liberia-full-length

I don’t know if it’s the same ‘VICE’ buy this guy is Canadian and goes to Liberia, N Korea, Chernobyl…all the fun Earth vacation destinations!!

This is not for everyone FYI

#99 Shawn on 05.11.13 at 1:00 pm

SEWER JOURNALISM AND SEWER HEADLINE WRITERS

I am no fan of Al Gore. But the media has brutally misrepresented what he said either through stupidity, laziness, purposeful sensationalization or some other form of incompetence.

He said in reference to oil sands. We are ‘using the atmosphere of the planet as an open sewer’

Head lines then trumpeted:

Al Gore calls Alberta Tar Sands “an open sewer.”

The headline was completely false. He never said it. And the article that followed demonstrated that this was not the quote at all. It was the atmosphere that he said was being treated a s sewer. NOTHING about oil sands as sewer. But there is no turning back from a lie like that. It simply gets spread and believed. I think Garth even repeated the lies of the Globe and Mail.

I can’t stand when a group stoops to outright lies and especially this kind of personal misrepresentation.

Gore should sue the Globe and Mail for this.

Ans apparently newspapers use headline writers. Often the story is true but the headline writer misrepresents the story to grab attention.

An example

Warren Buffett’s Buy American (Stocks) , I am headline from late 2008. His article did express confidence in stocks and said HE was buying. But the article never advised anyone else to buy. Buffett later noted that he did not write the headline. It turns out that (big surprise) his conclusion that stocks were cheap (but that he did not know where they would head next) was bang on the money. But the headline still seriously misrepresented his story. Happens ALL the time.

#100 CID on 05.11.13 at 1:05 pm

#48 RYAN

Accomodative or plainly hypocritical?

#101 Gord on 05.11.13 at 1:09 pm

Here’s that Monty Python skit…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ujRE2IkEIo

#102 Godth on 05.11.13 at 1:11 pm

Smoking Man, do you watch Game of Thrones?

Chaos isn’t a pit, it’s a ladder…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkTMm8n0AK8

#103 CID on 05.11.13 at 1:12 pm

#31 SMOKING MAN

You are normal so you are horrified.
Truth is always unbearable.

#104 pete on 05.11.13 at 1:13 pm

Johnny D on 05.10.13 at 9:31 pm
Garth,
What if house prices don’t fall in Canada but our currency does… say back to 70-80 cents per USD. Couldn’t a lower currency spark a return of manufacturing jobs to Canada… More jobs = rekindled real estate market. The average Canadian wage would be the same or lower as compared to the US even if we get paid more CAD.

Essentially you’d be correct that prices would fall but the big giant catch would be… Not if you deal with Canadian currency as most of us do. What is your thoughts or anyone’s thoughts on this?

____________________________________________
The price of EVERYTHING would jump 30% with a lower Canadian dollar. The US allowed their housing ponzi bubble to crash and now jobs are going back to the US everyday. A worker in the US who makes $13-16 can buy a 2500sq home and live like a king on that wage. I Canada you can not even rent an apartment on that money. Canada will continue to lose more jobs. Canadian economy 25-28% is BASED on the RE ponzi JUST LIKE THE US. Canada isgoing to be in a world of hurt. Young people can not even find jobs. many are working for free doing internships. LOL

#105 CID on 05.11.13 at 1:16 pm

#22 Seven Stars and Orion on 05.10.13 at 9:29 pm
Smoking Man,
You need a manifesto editor, dude.

——————-

Or a better AI algorithm?

#106 TurnerNation on 05.11.13 at 1:35 pm

Preaching to the horsey set:

http://www.postcity.com/Eat-Shop-Do/Do/May-2013/Semi-precious-homes/

Turner on Real Estate: does it make more sense to rent or buy in Toronto?

By Garth Turner

#107 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.11.13 at 1:35 pm

A new study by two economists concludes that rising levels of homeownership in a state “are a precursor to eventual sharp rises in unemployment in that state.” As more homes are owned, in other words, fewer people have jobs.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/10/business/homeownership-may-actually-cause-unemployment.html

“We find that a high rate of homeownership slowly decimates the labor market”

Canada, welcome to your future.

#108 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.11.13 at 1:36 pm

(ah – #80 John S beat me to it)

#109 TurnerNation on 05.11.13 at 1:44 pm

Smoking man, why not update your own twitter feed. Uncensored.

#110 boomorbust on 05.11.13 at 2:07 pm

Al Gore? Who cares about what he says? The guy that invented the Internet, yeah right….

#111 Humpty Dumpty on 05.11.13 at 2:15 pm

These dudes are anticipating sharia law in the west…

Downfall coming through coalition of Islamists and Marxists

http://www.wnd.com/2013/05/downfall-coming-through-coalition-of-islamists-and-marxists/#wug8xOLWvATVxjRy.99

Existing laws mete out the death penalty to individuals convicted of murder, spying, homosexuality, or selling land to Jews. The new legislation will expand the crimes for which individuals can be executed to include disloyalty to a spouse – having sexual relations outside the context of marriage. Other provisions of the law include chopping off the right hand of a thief (along with at least a seven year jail sentence), and lashes for a large number of “crimes,” including drinking alcoholic beverages and gambling. All the punishments are derived from sharia, Islamic law.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/167838#.UY6CBK6vdc9

Out of all the Muslim respondents in a global survey, Palestinian Muslims polled highest in favor of suicide bombings as a justifiable means “to defend Islam.”

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=8987

#112 Humpty Dumpty on 05.11.13 at 2:22 pm

Stop dissing my Italian friends, you knuckle-dragging biker. — Garth

G, send this to your Italian friends…
Its haliarious and they’ll feed you too..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ofNrtq6w3w&sns=em
Shit Nonnas Say

#113 Ex-Cowtown on 05.11.13 at 2:31 pm

#30 JimmyAAA on 05.10.13 at 9:54 pm

I assume that you mean $50K, not $50.00. Even that is low. Most LLR assessments are running around $75- $100K with deep and sour wells much higher than that. Several companies that I know have seen their LLR assessments double in the last 30 days.

The LLR program is utterly idiotic, as it takes working capital from small operators, who could use it to turn these wells back on and then pay royalties to the government. Making the problem worse by bankrupting small operators is no answer. The program is completely at odds with government stated goals of maximizing resource revenue.

Furthermore, wells that are uneconomic today may be good wells in the future. In the case of a bankruptcy, the government abandoning these wells may be even sillier than leaving them shut in, as a shut-in well can be re-activated fairly easily. Abandoning the well forces the next guy to re-drill and that is a waste of time and money for everyone.

The LLR program came into being about 10 years ago when natural gas prices were $10/mcf. At the time it looked OK as most of the wells were economic, so no big deal. But with the collapse of NG prices to $2-3, many of these wells are not economic. So instead of adjusting the LLR requirements, to recognize the change in economics, the Alberta government did the opposite, adding yet another layer of problems. This is behavior I would expect from the NDP or Greens, not the PC’s.

Your paranoid ethics fantasies re: the oilpatch are juvenile. You must get your information strictly from Al Gore, Darryl Hannah, James Cameron or David Suzuki approved sources. In the real world, company directors are liable. That stops the vast majority of shenanigans in their tracks.

#114 Donn on 05.11.13 at 3:01 pm

What ever happened to the Canadian motgage insurance plan reaching a “CAP” and that was going to put a stop to the craziness? F and the gang must have raised it….now its all on the bad banks…bad lenders

#115 Bubu on 05.11.13 at 3:06 pm

Garth, it seems to me that you’ve lost your blog.
It is officially Smoking Man’s blog now.

Was nice while it lasted ;)))

Pass me the bottle, please
(hey! I said PLEASE!)

#116 AndrewAB on 05.11.13 at 3:16 pm

Saw a big sign out front of the CIBC today:

“Cash Back Mortgages, Ask us how!”

Thought this was extinct?

#117 AndrewAB on 05.11.13 at 3:19 pm

He Calgary Boomer, Bob Truman knows and he will tell you alright!

Sales and sale prices always up!
Bidding wars still on!
and as an added bonus he’s already on the Buyer protection scam, I mean program.
Check it out!

#118 Pulp Faction (Dorf) on 05.11.13 at 3:30 pm

“We do not think it is good to participate in a market like this, but we still want to buy.”

I know the campfire is hot, and I will get burned, but I still want to sit on it.

Why haven’t house prices hit rock bottom yet ?!
It’s been a couple of months now, and you promised !!!!

#119 Pulp Faction (Dorf) on 05.11.13 at 3:35 pm

Apple Freaks:

Apple is not going to hit the high note until they release an internet TV that you talk to.

I expected it to be released when they were at 700-ish, putting them over the top, but it didn’t happen. I don’t know if it is still in development or if they are sitting on it. I know they still were working hard on the accuracy of voice activation for their phones, that’s where all their R&D happens these days.

The phones won’t do it anymore. The only thing that will send them skyward in leaps and bounds is an iTV.

#120 Pulp Faction (Dorf) on 05.11.13 at 3:37 pm

They (Apple) are meeting a lot of resistance from the broadcasting sector, in their attempts to secure content. Apple wants to morph into a content provider, who manufactures their own equipment. That’s where the consistent money is at.

#121 Shawn on 05.11.13 at 4:09 pm

Boom or bust at 110 responding to my complaint that Al Gore was horribly misrepresented said:

Al Gore? Who cares about what he says? The guy that invented the Internet, yeah right….

***********************************

Possibly another misrepresentation that spread in the media…

I am not a Gore fan. I am a fan of the truth.

#122 Tom Vu on 05.11.13 at 4:12 pm

Report: Al Gore’s net worth at $200 million

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57583118/report-al-gores-net-worth-at-$200-million/

More than a decade after losing his 2000 presidential bid, former Vice President Al Gore’s fortunes have seemingly turned: Gore’s net worth may now exceed $200 million, according to an analysis by Bloomberg News.

Since his failed run for the White House, Gore has leveraged his connections to make investments in technology and media that paid off. Earlier this year, he exercised options on 59,000 shares of the Apple stock he received for serving on the company’s board since 2003. Those shares, Bloomberg reports, are part of the 101,358 Apple options and restricted stock shares Gore had acquired, coming to a gross value of more than $45.6 million. When Current TV, the network Gore helped found, was sold to Al-Jazeera in January, the former vice president made an estimated $100 million.

=================================

The Man is saving the planet ! ..and deserve Oscar for his Sci – Fi fantasy thriller “An Inconvenient Truth”

Just like Obama…who has the title of Nobel Peace Prize winner who has dropped more bombs than any previous winners.

#123 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 05.11.13 at 4:53 pm

#119 Pulp Faction (Dorf) on 05.11.13 at 3:35 pm

Apple Freaks:

Apple is not going to hit the high note until they release an internet TV that you talk to.

====================================

Yeah..but then what ?

Aren’t we going to hit a ceiling….the ceiling is hit, then only growth is via cannibalization till that runs out.

#124 Does anyone besides Garth read all the comments on 05.11.13 at 5:12 pm

Yes Garth you are right boom times are coming to America

Great advice here

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2013/05/07/how-to-prosper-in-an-economic-boom/

#125 rosie "moving forward" on 05.11.13 at 5:33 pm

#15 smoking man

If you had finished school with a proper education you would have figured that out years ago.

#126 kww on 05.11.13 at 5:53 pm

Sold my Calgary house (Paid 284k in ’04) for 535k.
Never even listed it, it was sitting in a primo location in inner city, possible dozer food? Dunno, don’t care.
House next door was purchased in ’09 for 414k, had 50-75k in renos done to it, now listed for 639k. IT AIN’T MOVING. The middle layer of housing (350-550k) in the inner city is gone! Only tack 750k boxes now, with party walls. I’m done with Calgary, bought a small house in rural AB for 70k, with yearly property taxes of 250$. So long, Cowtown, and thanks for all the fish. Watch out as the Purple One proceeds to tax the hell outta you.

#127 Tom Vu on 05.11.13 at 5:56 pm

Bulldozer rampage demolishes one house, flattens truck in Washington

http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/nationnow/la-na-nn-man-bulldozes-houses-washington-state-20130510,0,3023344.story

SEATTLE — A man in Port Angeles, Wash., went on a rampage with a bulldozer Friday afternoon after quarreling with a neighbor and plowed through four structures, a pickup truck and a power line, cutting electricity to homes as far as 20 miles away.

One of the homes was swept from its foundation and smashed into another house, Clallam County sheriff’s spokesman Jim Borte told the Los Angeles Times.

There were no apparent injuries, though a woman was at home in one of the less-damaged structures and managed to escape, he said.

Authorities said Barry Swegle, 51, who lives next door to the most damaged property, has been arrested on a charge of malicious mischief.

Borte said Swegle had apparently been involved in a dispute with a neighbor.

“As I understand it, there was an argument that had taken place,” he said. “This was the outcome of the dispute.”

==================================

Hoo Boy..neighbours make great fences…..why should make them 10 ft thick with rebar and guntower

#128 Craig on 05.11.13 at 6:16 pm

Yeah and how many sheep bought into Gore’s BS about global warming, the world ending, polar caps melting and his little dog and pony show with him on a scissor lift pointing to some lame graph going off the page at the top right hand corner.

How about an update on that big Al?

Fits right in there with housing is gonna crash, rates are going through the roof again, markets will continue to skyrocket and PM’s will plummet…..blah blah blah.

I’ve been hearing this same crap for years and my house has gone from $300K to $400K to $500K to $600k TO $650K right, maybe more.

Be careful what you believe folks. Owning a home is real and has been a very prosperous venture for 100′s of years. Buying right now for first timers, I would not recommend but eventually it’ll bottom in the range of 10-15% from today’s prices.

Then grab these low rates, go long term and seal the deal.

#129 Weedeater on 05.11.13 at 6:20 pm

#15 Smoking Man
At least have the courtesy of citing your source
http://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/

#130 thiscountryisgoing down the toilet on 05.11.13 at 6:35 pm

“Johnny D on 05.10.13 at 9:31 pm
Garth,
What if house prices don’t fall in Canada but our currency does… say back to 70-80 cents per USD. Couldn’t a lower currency spark a return of manufacturing jobs to Canada… More jobs = rekindled real estate market.”

Question…..if the Canuck Buck was a catalyst to create manufacturing jobs….then what happened to manufacturing during the thirty years the liberal party kept the loon artificially low……weren’t we at 50 t0 55 cents on the dollar for twenty years?
Sorry dude…you’re drinking liberal bathwater…..complete red herring analysis.

In reality the industrial base was trashed under a government program designed to create ‘sustainable development’ in the third world…..it sends jobs to the 3rd world from the first in order for the 3rd world to catch up….sounds insane right? But there you are….Canada was the second country to sign on to this nuttery after Norway in the mid 1970′s.

Canada shuttered factories and sent our tax dollars to China so that China would become a customer of Canadian services and send back cheaper goods to make us all feel better. The Chinese had other ideas and didn’t recycle any of the money……ergo we got screwed and systemically unemployed.

BTW..if you read the original document you will also find the creation of the Kyoto Accord ( the carbon tax and climate change mechanism ) hidden in the preamble as a way liberals devised to fund the 3rd world development…..there was never any talk of climate change before this scheme popped up….remember?

Britain was the first signatory to drop out when they realized they’d been duped. They sent agents to track the ‘aid money’ and found that 100% of it was being stolen by the leadership of recieving countries. The Brits stood up in the UN and showed the mansions and yachts the money was being spent on…..to the howls of fury by the libs at such not politically correct audacity.

Do you see a single head office or plant moving to/ or establishing itself in Canada? Ever wonder why? Think about it.

#131 espressobob on 05.11.13 at 7:08 pm

#66 Bigrider

My Italion clients would take great offence to your remarks, trust me! The fact of the matter is simple, where all in this together. Them and Us!

#132 jess on 05.11.13 at 7:09 pm

spain

the sell
asset rich cash poor and those draconian inheritance tax rules = the new product Equity Release schemes
http://erva.es/sample-page/
http://erva.es/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/2013-03-ERVA-Rotchschild-Testimonail-HW-FOX-Advertising.pdf

Expats take on Rothschild over equity release schemes – Telegraphwww.telegraph.co.uk › Finance › Personal Finance › Expat Money
Nov 16, 2011 – “One firm of international financial advisors in particular, Henry Woods, has been on the equivalent of Spain’s FSA blacklist since 2003 for …
=
http://erva.es/tag/henry-woods/
Sydbank’s Offer To Settle Turned Down
4th February 2013 by admin under Legal Action
The offices of Sydbank (Schweiz) AG in Liquidation were closed on 31 August 2012
==

Bank of Spain Says Nordea and Nykredit Break the Lawhttp://erva.es/2012/11/06/bank-of-spain-says-nordea-and-nykredit-break-the-law/

#133 jess on 05.11.13 at 7:21 pm

http://www.stateintegrity.org/
http://www.stateintegrity.org/state_integrity_invesitgation_overview_story

#134 Herb on 05.11.13 at 7:35 pm

#122 Tom Vu,

would you happen to know what G.W. Bush was worth before his presidency, and what he’s worth now?

Perhaps that “fan of the truth”, Shawn, can help you find out.

#135 Tony on 05.11.13 at 7:51 pm

The whole province of Alberta watched all their surplus fade into oblivion all the while their only concern was air and water pollution. Believe you me the residents of Alberta are far too stupid to ever sustain a productive province. They watched China rise to a superpower as China’s last concern was pollution and still to this day Albertan’s still don’t get it even the Albertan graduates of mensa haven’t a clue.

#136 Smoking Man on 05.11.13 at 8:01 pm

#125 rosie “moving forward” on 05.11.13 at 5:33 pm
#15 smoking manIf you had finished school with a proper education you would have figured that out years ago.

When am I ever going to get through to you people.
School dose not equal Education..
…………..

#129 Weedeater on 05.11.13 at 6:20 pm#15 Smoking ManAt least have the courtesy of citing your sourcehttp://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/

Dude it was a miracle, I could even copy paste in the state I was in last night…. Thanks for digging up and sharing the link. Was browsing incognito, could not find the page again.

……

#137 Kaganovich on 05.11.13 at 8:30 pm

Herb wrote:

“Perhaps that “fan of the truth”, Shawn, can help you find out.”

Ah yes, the same fellow who was admitted he was unfamiliar with Goethe, and then proceeded to criticize the German thinker’s quote as a loser’s rationalization. Anyone else notice that the rugged individualist creed always attracts the basest of humans? Hell, I’d wager that even Buffett knows who J.W. Goethe is!

#138 AK on 05.11.13 at 8:34 pm

#128 Craig on 05.11.13 at 6:16 pm
“Be careful what you believe folks. Owning a home is real and has been a very prosperous venture for 100′s of years. Buying right now for first timers, I would not recommend but eventually it’ll bottom in the range of 10-15% from today’s prices.

Then grab these low rates, go long term and seal the deal.”
——————————————————————–
There is no way they drop 15% with the current low rates.

Prices will not fall until the rates start to move up…

#139 Nova Scotia View on 05.11.13 at 8:46 pm

Nova Scotia real-estate insight took a serious hit today. The province previously could use the ViewPoint.ca service to see Sales History on properties, but now that the market is tanking and the site itself is taking part in the market (they have realtors), all of a sudden sales-history/etc… are now “Premium Features”.

This is really bogus and will hurt the ability of buyers to know what is really going on in the market.

#140 Smoking Man on 05.11.13 at 8:48 pm

#138 AK on 05.11.13 at 8:34 pm

You are correct, rates need to go up… Imigration to city’s like Toronto need to go negative, or massive job losses.

I don’t no if Canada will join it’s trading partners in devaluation of the dollar by printing, but if it dose,
Owning real estate is a no brainer..

#141 AK on 05.11.13 at 9:09 pm

#76 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.11.13 at 10:35 am

“Woman gives money to advisor, who loses $190k of it chasing oil and gold stocks.

Then, she gives up on “stocks” altogether, and buys $1M worth of rental properties!

She has over $1M in debt, and less than $100k in non-RE assets.”
——————————————————————–

Did she follow recommendations made by Joseph Schachter? :-)

#142 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.11.13 at 9:14 pm

@ #116 AndrewAB on 05.11.13 at 3:16 pm
Saw a big sign out front of the CIBC today:

“Cash Back Mortgages, Ask us how!”

Thought this was extinct?
________________________

Nope – cash back mortgages are still everywhere… and are promoted by the banks with no shame. Check out my post from a few days ago:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/05/01/choices-4/#comment-239861

I believe that the banks get around the restriction by saying that they qualify the buyer before giving them the cash — in other words, the buyer comes up with the 5% down payment on their own (you know, like, from a Credit Card!), and then the bank gives the cash back mortgage.

#143 An Cat Dubh on 05.11.13 at 9:22 pm

A home friends of mine are renting in Penticton with an incredible view and affordable rent had been for sale for almost 2 years now. The owners want $650K for it even though it would have been somewhat of a hard sell at the “peak”. They were offered $450K and turned it down. The water in that area is terrible and must be boiled if used for cooking or drinking. Some people are delusional.

BTW-Al Gore (the carbon creep) is having family problems again. Must be that “global warming”.

#144 Small Town Steve on 05.11.13 at 9:57 pm

#135

How about Alberta stops all transfer payments to whatever province you live in. We should be fine then..

#145 Tom Vu on 05.11.13 at 9:58 pm

Actually…I like Smoking Man…just like to spar.

He has much wisdom.

Don Quote tea:

#140 Smoking Man on 05.11.13 at 8:48 pm

#138 AK on 05.11.13 at 8:34 pm

You are correct, rates need to go up… Imigration to city’s like Toronto need to go negative, or massive job losses.

=======================

Rates are the fiat currency viagra….economic lust must be reigned in and neutered !!!!… Quantitative Easing needs cold shower !!!!

……… or at least put these people in centerfold of
Bankster Quarterly report.

WARNING : Wear welding goggles or go blind !!!!

http://www.starpulse.com/news/Kevin_Blair/2013/02/21/celebrity_plastic_surgery_gone_bad

#146 Behavioral Finance on 05.11.13 at 10:23 pm

Craig,
“Owning a home is real and has been a very prosperous venture for 100′s of years.”

That is an absurd statement, which is not backed up by any facts.

The reality is very different.
“From 1890 to 1990 the appreciation in US housing was just about zero.”

#147 cynically on 05.12.13 at 12:36 am

#33, when will canadians realize that the banks run this coubtry, not the government.

#148 Smoking Man on 05.12.13 at 12:45 am

Dasie May

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9l6VPpDublg&feature=youtube_gdata_playerDasie May

A blog dog whom I really like sent me the above link…

Explains why I have supper human predictive skills..

Dead left brain, super charged right brain..

My plagiarized post, how did I find this dudes website, like minded via the universal consciousness consolidator.

He talks matrix and machine…. But is left brain, me right…

We still connected…

#149 Andrew on 05.12.13 at 2:14 am

TO #142

It seems that the “Just in it for the buck crowd” wins again.

Today.

#150 WHEN WILL IT GO DOWN !!!!!!! on 05.12.13 at 2:44 am

how come the home are still SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO FREAKING EXPENSIVE.

#151 bigrider on 05.12.13 at 7:06 am

#131- espressobob to bigrider in reference to #66.

What part of my statement would be offensive to Italians?

Better yet, what part of my statement in #66 did I mention even them ?

Seems you jump to conclusions easily. Why do you that?

Is it possibly because you believe yourself that your own conclusions( not mine) about Italians domninating the housing industry are true??

#152 Craig on 05.12.13 at 8:15 am

138 AK ——————————————————————–
There is no way they drop 15% with the current low rates.

Prices will not fall until the rates start to move up…

====================================

Pure spec on my part. Who knows, maybe they’ll continue to go up….rates are still dropping around the world soooo…..??

#153 Ret on 05.12.13 at 8:44 am

Albertans squandered their oil royalties. Norwegian politicians saved most of theirs.

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/17/managing-oil-wealth-should-canada-be-more-like-norway/?__lsa=2117-c392

800,000 doses of H in a province of 4M people? What’s that about?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/story/2013/05/03/calgary-heroin-seizure-aiport-amsterdam.html

700,000 joints and a table piled high of other drugs and guns found in routine traffic stops. So these were routine stops and the RCMP just stumbled into these massive shipments. How much would they find if they actually went looking?

http://metronews.ca/news/edmonton/645500/traffic-stops-on-alberta-highways-lead-to-massive-drug-busts/

The trendline for this province can only be down. They did it to themselves.

#154 Herb on 05.12.13 at 8:52 am

#148 SM,

the question is not how you found that website. The real question is why you, admittedly too pissed to post, would bother plagiarizing to come up with a post of any kind.

The answer is that silence does not cultivate your self-importance, so you have to post to be somebody, whoever the somebody behind your SM and alter-ego personas is. Responses to you on Facebook, Twitter, your own and other blogs were inadequate, so you have to haunt Greater Fool to bathe yourself in Garth’s significance.

#155 Craig on 05.12.13 at 9:42 am

Why rent when you can buy a $500,000 house for the same monthly payment.

That’s all people look at;

Mortgage – $2,200

Rent – $2,200

Like it or not, agree or not, that’s just the way it works.

http://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates/1-year/fixed?mortgageAmount=250000&amort=25&province=ON

Most people have no math skills. It’s why they end up at 55 years old with the bulk of their net worth in one asset, illiquid or declining, and suddenly realize they face an income crisis. — Garth

#156 Ret on 05.12.13 at 9:50 am

#76 G&M article

The woman has say $100,000 roughly of employment income and bonuses.

She has a mortgage on her principal property of $185,000 and $785,000 of mortgages on investment/ income properties which yield rental income but also have a risk component for both her and the bank (no CMHC).

Is over nine times your income typical of what our prudent financial institutions are willing to approve?

#157 Gunboat denier on 05.12.13 at 10:57 am

151 Ret – Norway isnt perfect

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-05/norway-cracks-down-on-mortgage-risk-to-fight-housing-bubble.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/14/business/global/14frugal.html?_r=0

They have high taxes, a housing bubble, and 200%
household debt. Good thing they have that sovereign wealth fund.

#158 Daisy Mae on 05.12.13 at 11:31 am

#147 cynically: “#33, when will canadians realize that the banks run this coubtry, not the government.”

************************

When will the government and the banks realize that without us, they’re nothing?

#159 Smoking Man on 05.12.13 at 11:31 am

#154 Herb on 05.12.13 at 8:52 am#148
SM,the question is not how you found that website. The real question is why you, admittedly too pissed to post, would bother plagiarizing to come up with a post of any kind.The answer is that silence does not cuultivate your self-importance, so you have to post to be somebody, whoever the somebody behind your SM and alter-ego personas is. Responses to you on Facebook, Twitter, your own and other blogs were inadequate, so you have to haunt Greater Fool to bathe yourself in Garth’s significance.
………

Herb you a shrink now…..

The post significant to real estate, fundamentals are ridiculous, price to income ratios, yet the herd keeps buying and will keep buying. The playjirized post was an example of how the MSM phyops can make the Herd to what it pleases….

Not like I tried to pass it off as my own handy work..

#160 Smoking Man on 05.12.13 at 11:39 am

Also herb, I have no fear in breaching boundaries of acceptable behaviour, it’s called freedom it’s called creativity, some bad, some good.

I’m not trapped as a little peasant in the valley worried about what the judger on top of the hill thinks.

I think I’m a better judger. Hence the conflict with you..

#161 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 05.12.13 at 11:48 am

@#150 When will it go down

You could always change your name to Viagra…..less ink.

#162 Al moro(n) on 05.12.13 at 12:05 pm

(Y)early math

1K(s) x 500K($) x 1%(y) = 5M Gross Total yield

Isn’t it lovely!

Cheers!

#163 Asse on 05.12.13 at 12:08 pm

I’d like to spend a few moments and thank my old pols nosy, smoking man, tommy, daisy and a few others for your excellent and excessive rhetoric, the results of which have been more than a few welcome surprises. Seriously. Suprising. My hats off gentlemen and lady. Friday night? I’m honored by your devotion but seriously wasting your weekend for me? Your x’s must have taken more than just your money.
Daisy Mae/Beach girl good to hear from you again. Thought you would have found your ‘peace’ by now but oh well, a classy lady like you should have NO problems. Sad life story but don’t go blaming others. I don’t.
Hey smoky, any relations to Howard? He was busted for posting antisemitic hate mail online when you pulled your disappearing act. Just wondering now that smokies changed personalities.
Tommy, my appreciations. You are indeed a special case. Assuming you had become bankrupt was no leap. I’m just surprised your kids still talk to you. I only made reference to my families wealth because I feel your hunger. Being generous is better. Wealth is security and future, to you it is power. At least you still have your internet.
CID, thank you. Lonely, no. I have family.
Normal, no, but simple. I think of everything in binary terms. Black and white. It’s funny, you realize that a competent chess player can almost always play a master to a draw, but ego gets in the way. It’s also why I used to drink. It gave me shades of grey. I don’t drink now, haven’t in almost 15 years.
I haven’t changed but others perceptions of me have. I’m the same simple, sensitive, empathetic shmuck who would do what he could for those that deserved.

#164 Tom Vu on 05.12.13 at 12:08 pm

#161 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 05.12.13 at 11:48 am

@#150 When will it go down

You could always change your name to Viagra…..less ink.

====================================

Its is Mothers Day, so must behave and not make innuendos.

PS Mind you there are some REAL Mothers out there.

#165 Victor V on 05.12.13 at 1:26 pm

#155 Craig

If you’re looking to accurately compare owning vs renting, then check out this article Garth wrote on the subject.

http://www.postcity.com/Eat-Shop-Do/Do/May-2013/Semi-precious-homes/

#166 jess on 05.12.13 at 1:29 pm

folding

http://mcanmortgage.com/about-us/history

#167 TEMPLE on 05.12.13 at 2:46 pm

#128 Craig on 05.11.13 at 6:16 pm

Yeah and how many sheep bought into Gore’s BS about global warming, the world ending, polar caps melting and his little dog and pony show with him on a scissor lift pointing to some lame graph going off the page at the top right hand corner.

Wow…just wow. Clear winner for the dumbest comment of the day. No small achievement, given the profligacy of some commenters here.

Be honest, Craig, and give me some hope for human intellect: you were just trolling, right?

TEMPLE

#168 TurnerNation on 05.12.13 at 3:06 pm

Calgary: the spurs set must have more to burn. Local casino undergoing a major expansion build with hotel.

http://www.greyeaglecasino.ca/

#169 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.12.13 at 4:05 pm

Zero Down Mortgages — everywhere!

http://toronto.kijiji.ca/c-real-estate-real-estate-services-0-Down-Mortgages-2-70-Rate-1st-2nd-Private-Rent-To-Own-W0QQAdIdZ483732702

http://www.mortgagedirect2u.ca/100financing.php

http://mymortgageshop.ca/100-financing-cashback/

Notice that the third link specifically tells you to use a cash back mortgage to achieve a 100% financing.

#170 Old Man on 05.12.13 at 4:06 pm

I know am slipping in life as just heard about a mega transfer of assets between private families with one selling and the other buying; know them both, but not this deal. Who would ever believe that a family of great wealth (private) lives in St. Catherines, Ontario.

#171 Al Gore on 05.12.13 at 4:29 pm

Hi everyone.

You restore my faith in mankind.
Lots more of my world – saving Gaia religion coming.

By the time I’m done with you filthy apes, everyone will be writing apology notes to the Dinosaurs.

PS How’s that sewer up North ?
Know were I can download a 3D copy of Soylent Green?

#172 gladiator on 05.12.13 at 6:32 pm

My poor try in haiku using today’s blog title.

There was a blizzard in Toronto today.
Maple Leafs are still in the playoffs.
Maybe they have a chance this time?
Anticipation…

#173 Old Man on 05.12.13 at 6:41 pm

#170 Old Man – I have known the seller family for some 50 years through several generations on a personal basis, as they bought large land holdings to pass down to the kids with a AAA business operation, so why did they sell out? I suspect it was for the cash to move forward in life for a better future or whatever in life. Hey cash is king, so trash the family tradition, as all has cash now, and the capital gain scenerio will be huge; not sure how this private deal went down, but was shocked by this all. Hey all family members are worth a fortune, but for the children now what?

#174 Nosty Losty In Space on 05.12.13 at 6:57 pm

-
Smoking Man Is this how creative dyslexics work?!

Aaahhhhh, life is good and freeing. Cheers!

#175 Steve Harper on 05.12.13 at 7:13 pm

Hi everyone.

Thank you for recognizing my skill in economics. I know what is best for the economy and I would like to manage it from a central location. My time in the mail room was most valuable in learning how to manage you people.

I think Canadian wages are too high, i’m going to open the border with wazira-stan so I can help tim hortons push its wage to $0.10/hour

Do any of you know how I can get myself a copy of the great dictator by Charlie Chaplin ?

#176 CID on 05.12.13 at 7:30 pm

#163 Asse

CID, thank you. Lonely, no. I have family.

———————————————
It was not for you but for S.M.

Anyway, loneliness has nothing to do with how many persons surround you. S.M. already knows, I guess you too, no?
Cheers

#177 Gore is a fraud on 05.12.13 at 8:17 pm

Gore,s fraud junk science has and will, do more to set back the care of the planet than even world wars.

Wasting billions on naturally occurring and essential co2 (sucker idiots call it pollution) had diverted decades of progress in cleaning up real pollution.

Gore has played the weak minded pathetic TEMPLE,s of the world for suckers and to enrich himself only

#178 Daisy Mae on 05.12.13 at 8:23 pm

#163 Asse: “Daisy Mae/Beach girl good to hear from you again. Thought you would have found your ‘peace’ by now but oh well, a classy lady like you should have NO problems. Sad life story but don’t go blaming others. I don’t.”

********************

Well, Asse, ‘Beach Girl’ and I are two totally different women. Please don’t mix us up. :-)

#179 Smoking Man on 05.12.13 at 8:33 pm

#174 Nosty Losty In Space on 05.12.13 at 6:57 pm-Smoking Man Is this how creative dyslexics work?!Aaahhhhh, life is good and freeing. Cheers!

Ha funny… Seems even that caurtoonist reads this pathetic blog….

Few post up asse mentioned my name with anti semitic…. It take great offense to that innuendo….

I despise and hate every single organized religion with the same spit in there face contempt equally.. They are all on my shit list…

However if one day I lose my mind and find God, and want to join a religion, jewdaisum would probably be my first choice…

Until then there is only one God, Me!!!!!!

#180 Julie on 05.12.13 at 8:36 pm

#48ryan on 05.10.13 at 11:28 pm
Furthermore on SM’s initial post,

I noticed Victor V lashed out grouping your posts in as one of those crazy conspirator posts, UFO’s, gold nuts etc. Victor V

There is more evidence of UFOs and Extra Terrestrials than there is of ANY type of religion. I have been in many places in the world and documented/took pictures first hand. You should not lump ET/UFOs in with “conspiracy” posts unless you are one of those “govt pushers” trying to Nanny us into what we should be thinking……

#181 Asse on 05.12.13 at 8:46 pm

CID Yes I do know. Those days are long gone.
I once dated a most incredible, beautiful, loving, caring woman. I knew it wasn’t going to last because she devoted her life to GOD, and in turn humanity. Her goal, which she accomplished, was to become a doctor and spend her life doing missionary work. That and she was surrounded by people at all times drove me absolutely nuts at the time. I pray she’s still alive, but if she is she is happy. I understand now. A life of servitude and love is priceless, but something we can all afford.
I write this on the basement floor with my son’s head resting on me watching a dvd of Franklin after Moms dinner. All good my friend.
Cheers

#182 Newcomer21 on 05.12.13 at 10:47 pm

Having visited this blog occasionally for the past five years and having watched you develop a life after politics with a career in “guest speaker” I conclude the following:

1. Congratulations for making a career after politics. The chances of cynicism overtaking all is great. You have moved on. Good for you.

2. Your pronouncements, no matter how repetitive, are unfortunately mistaken.

3. You must now devote your life to a more respectful view where the decisions of others are viewed as their best consideration of all the factors important to them. You will eschew arrogance in all its forms.

5. You will rediscover what it is like to be loved and respected as you seek a new path towards respectful relations with all you encounter – even towards those who purchase a house. . . . breath deeply . . . . let those old mistaken thoughts go . . . . . all is well. . . all is well. . . . . .