Hicks

hicks

We stood is a semi-circle watching the dog. Seemed like a reasonable thing to do on a day when the jackets came off and the sky blued. The mutt nosed around the toes of the six people yakking on the street corner, got bored and laid down. With no prompting from me, the convo turned to houses.

James and his partner moved here from Scarborough fourteen years ago. Sue and Fred came the year before last, after selling a condo in mid-town 416. James is a nationally-known artist with a studio up the road, and treks back to the Big Smoke annually for a show and sale. One day Fred bound up his ponytail, packed his Toronto recording equipment into a truck, drove it east for two days and installed everything inside a big, converted double-car garage beside his house. “Just finished the sixth album,” he said. “But I should charge more. All these guys wanna do is hang around and do guitar remixes.”

269,000

Asking $269,000

Sue and Fred paid less for their large two-and-a-half storey house with the big lot and wraparound porch than a one-bedroom concrete box overlooking the 401. There was enough left from the condo sale to add a Mercedes to the driveway. James paid even less, but that was more than a decade ago, and he still enjoys the unobstructed view of the back harbour.

“Couldn’t get me back in Toronto,” he says. “When you have to pay a million bucks for a house and carry a massive mortgage, how can you keep from getting mean? Or competitive? Or just scared? I mean, what happens when you lose a job and owe hundreds of thousands? How can people sleep?”

There was a mortgage broker who worked from his big home down the street, but apparently he shut the door for lack of business. It seems like financing a house is an alien idea. But so’s the concept of house as investment. On the south shore of Nova Scotia, with better weather than Toronto and an hour from the sprawl of Halifax, real estate’s a slow thing. A house might take 200 days to sell, and will probably change hands for about what the owner paid. Nobody here thinks much about the property ladder. Or watches HGTV.

In fact, as in parts of BC, a housing correction’s already taken place. Sales are off by a third from year-ago levels, and prices have trickled lower for the past two years. There is no speculation. No flippers. No multiple bids. No bully offers. No assignments. No hurry. Sellers hang signs out, then garden around them for a couple of seasons until somebody arrives who likes the place. Realtors wear sandals and drive minivans.

490,000

Asking $490,000

Of course, houses are affordable for a reason. The whole province has fewer people than Mississauga. The unemployment rate is 9.5% (in contrast, Toronto’s at 8.2%, Vancouver is 7.0%), which probably explains why so many people are self-employed, or the excess of artists, writers and musicians. And there’s perception. Being humans, we tend to clump together, then believe where we’ve chosen is special. How else to explain people coming on this blog to chirp, seriously, “it’s different in Regina”?

Five years ago I bought a house on the south shore, and every weekend or two grab the shuttle from Toronto. In two hours I go from a city where people spend $1.5 million on houses made of pressed sawdust and industrial glue, to a place where you can retire at age 50, living imperiously on the proceeds of an ugly suburban box in Calgary. And have a better house. My town has five-star restaurants, two concert halls, a hospital, a working harbour, a new school, tourists from Japan in horse-drawn carriages, and the sea. Sadly, though, no Starbucks. And the only strip club folded. I think she retired.

299,000

Asking $299,000

There are lots of places like this in Canada, where people live in houses they can afford. Never was a bubble. There won’t be a bust.  Mortgage rates are irrelevant. Real estate’s not a strategy. Folks aren’t obsessed. Nobody talks about it. Except the come-from-away people standing around watching a dog snort gravel.

So, is smug a sin?

163 comments ↓

#1 First on 05.05.13 at 4:54 pm

First???

Stop it. — Garth

#2 Dee on 05.05.13 at 4:57 pm

Sounds like you’re trying to argue that it’s different there…

Actually I said sales and prices have fallen. — Garth

#3 Singh on 05.05.13 at 4:58 pm

Prices in North Delta and Surrey, BC have not gone down at all. Is this a stable market were prices will stay high and not drop? I need to buy at some point…

#4 Randy on 05.05.13 at 4:58 pm

Why bother buying if there’s no Starbuck’s…?

#5 blase on 05.05.13 at 4:59 pm

Nice. I bet there aren’t any clinics for folks who can’t find a family doctor, either.

Of course. I hear people operate on each other. With chainsaws. — Garth

#6 Shania Twain on 05.05.13 at 5:01 pm

Wow Garth, you are early today…will DOW go higher? I think you predicted this too…BTW, am I third?

#7 FATHER on 05.05.13 at 5:02 pm

with those prices shown & housing styles that is life that 1 can have a family no worry & then u can say best place on earth & be proud to be canadian again

#8 salonist on 05.05.13 at 5:03 pm

how about a picture of a dog biting your ass

Don’t you have a house to show? — Garth

#9 FATHER on 05.05.13 at 5:14 pm

8 get a life & add the 8’s to your prices & maybe then u can sell those stale listing of yours

#10 Mr. Frugal on 05.05.13 at 5:16 pm

Of course it’s different there. People aren’t caught up in a mindless rat race. They raise a family and do their best to enjoy life. Folks in Toronto would do well to take a good look outside of the big smoke and see what they’re missing…. it’s called freedom!

#11 Bill Gable on 05.05.13 at 5:17 pm

Other than Boston North (*Chester) – the South Shore of Nova Scotia is a wonderful place.

We have been living in Vancouver – but – my extended family is discussing moving to Nova Scotia.

The latest numbers confirm the reality – $71,000 to maintain a modest lifestyle here in caffeinated Dampcouver.

The City has no soul and although lovely – driving is a nightmare and ,if I never see Vancouver again, I won’t be upset.

Oh, the Movie Business that was roaring for years, has died.

There are 5000 homes worth $1 million or more listed, in the GVRD.

Hell, with a touch of foam.

#12 Fleabitten Monkey on 05.05.13 at 5:23 pm

Garth,
What is your take on Robert Carrick’s Saturday Globe piece on sheltering your portfolio from a real estate correction. In it, there are references to Canadian banks being exposed. Can you contrast this to the hypothesis that Cdn banks have figured out how to continue making money in all of this, crappy loan portfolios already off their books etc?

It’s a myth. Total domestic lending accounts for 35% of bank revenues. Originations are down a third and yet bank profits have set records. A Canadian housing correction was factored in long ago. Meanwhile all high-risk loans are government-insured. How can you fall for such an obviously incorrect assumption? — Garth

#13 Tom Vu on 05.05.13 at 5:25 pm

Real Estate is the new Bre_-X and the future U.S. Dollar.

PS : what is “Big Smoke”…Toronto? …I though it was called the Big Dump(verb).

#14 Burnt Norton on 05.05.13 at 5:36 pm

I’m envious Garth. Spent 5 years training in Halifax. Learned to surf there also.

I left my heart in Nova Scotia.

#15 Min in Mission on 05.05.13 at 5:38 pm

I used to live in one of those places here in BC.

Unfortunately, life circumstances changed, divorce, etc. and I had to leave. Like they say, you don’t know what you’ve got ’til it’s gone.

Wish I could go back, but, I am content where I am.

In my neck of the woods, there has been a drop in prices. However, it looks like prices have stabilized for a bit. I haven’t seen many re-lists, also, I haven’t seen lots of sales either!!

No, I am not a realtor. Just an interested observer!

#16 Keeping the Faith on 05.05.13 at 5:42 pm

Thank you Garth a great post.
It was a pleasant surprise for you to open a window of sanity and let the fresh air of tomorrows balanced real estate market blow in.

Too many broken mortgages and filed bankruptcies to count between now and then for the rest of Canada.

Pleasant post and enjoy your piece of paradise.
Thank you.

#17 FATHER on 05.05.13 at 5:43 pm

i’m born & raised in vancouver my loyality to it has been ?nd wife & i dont like the changes occuring both r trained prof. medical/ trades we have wealth but rent reason being realestate prices personly i blame our government fedral or prov. we have being thinking of leaving to the us but our routes r here

#18 EIT on 05.05.13 at 5:44 pm

Smug: A terrible word for such a wonderful thing.

#19 Shawn on 05.05.13 at 5:46 pm

Retire By 55…

It is possible for some people.

We are both 53 and our two kids will start college this year and next. They will live in residence on campus. $150k sits in the RESP to pay for it.

We are in a position to “retire” (leave full-time paid work) any time we want. Yes, we will have two government pensions (cue the invectives and jealousy)

What stops me is the thought of giving up our substantial salaries. Also what stops me is that our spending has escalated a lot and runs at about $120k to $140k per year. (That’s SPENDING after income taxes and not counting investments and we have no mortgage to pay) And really we are not that extravagant but kids in sports and running three cars (none are newer) and taking vacations add up. It seems to me that the typical lifestyle in a City suburb for a couple and two active high school age kids costs near $10k a month these days. It can be done for less, but we choose not to scrimp.

If we move to a rural area and if the kids are on their own I suspect we could live well on closer to $5k per month (assume a paid for house) but I am not quite ready to try it yet.

Also moving sounds like work…

It’s not a bad situation at all. But the point is I could give up full time work just by cutting back on spending. It’s tempting.

And we are from Nova Scotia (Me, Cape Breton, My wife grew up on the end of highway 3 that is closer to Halifax, not too far from the South Shore area and I lived in that area for a while as well). Tempting, tempting…

#20 timmy on 05.05.13 at 5:53 pm

try a winter in Nova Scotia and let me know how that works out for you

Last few were fine. Less snow than Toronto. Are you a BC metrosexual creampuff? — Garth

#21 rick rules on 05.05.13 at 6:05 pm

creampuff

Garth u are hilarious. maybe its trudeaus boy.

#22 jan on 05.05.13 at 6:10 pm

Gosh, it looks so beautiful in Nova Scotia compared to butt ugly Vancouver where houses continue to get bigger and uglier.
I am soooo sick of this best dump on earth that is Vancouver !!!!

#23 bigtown on 05.05.13 at 6:13 pm

It is true Canada is a vast and fabulous place down east like New Brunswick near Campbellton you can pick up unbelievable values and also outside of Saint John near the border in st. Stephen are very sensible places for folks looking for the real cool Canada which does exist. Heck in B.C. go over to the island near Nanaimo and you can pick up a house now for 1995 prices.

#24 David G on 05.05.13 at 6:17 pm

Want to know why RE is so much cheaper in these small towns? It’s because there are no jobs. My friend bought a 2 bedroom bungalow 1.5hrs from Ottawa for only $ 110 k.

The meaningless generalizations being thrown about are most revealing. I feel sad for these people. — Garth

#25 Hicks — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate – The Affluent Boomer on 05.05.13 at 6:23 pm

[...] via Hicks — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate. [...]

#26 FullOfFear on 05.05.13 at 6:23 pm

“On the south shore of Nova Scotia, with better weather than Toronto”

That’s debatable. They get a whole bunch more rain, many summer days have fog, and then there’s the wind.

#27 Foggy on 05.05.13 at 6:29 pm

@ #20 timmy:

“try a winter in Nova Scotia and let me know how that works out for you”
————————-
Since I’ve moved from Ontario 5 years ago, I HAVE tried it. 5 times in fact. The winter is the same as the Toronto area, minus the bitter cold snaps and idiot drivers who can’t drive in the snow. There are frequent melts during the winter and on the whole it is moderate. The Gulf stream, you know.
And the summers are moderate in temperature and less humid than your sweltry Southern Ontario. You also have serious heat spells which are non-existent here. And at night it actually cools down for better sleeping. All climate moderation from the Atlantic ocean.

#28 Roial1 on 05.05.13 at 6:30 pm

Last few were fine. Less snow than Toronto. Are you a BC metrosexual creampuff? — Garth

Just wait a bit. When the next hurricane slams into your coast,,,,,,, welllllllll.

I lived in the Annapolis Valley for some time and the winters can get “down and dirty.”

Ever hear of a South-Easter????? The East coast types did not name the hat as a joke of some sort. (Or maybe they did????)

Be sure to have a meal in the resturant right on the hill above the old dock in Lunnaburg. Best scallopes in the world. Bar none!

#29 Brian Ripley on 05.05.13 at 6:30 pm

To #3 Singh “Prices in North Delta and Surrey, BC have not gone down at all. Is this a stable market were prices will stay high and not drop? I need to buy at some point…”

If you check the work by Vancouver Price Drop, you will notice that outlying area prices are dropping, especially those that were badly overpriced to begin with: http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/

My own work confirms the same: http://www.chpc.biz/scorecard.html

Average strata units trade at 3Q 2007 prices http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver_chart.html

#30 s on 05.05.13 at 6:32 pm

Garth, that’s not correct as much I’d like to see a correction. The prices in Greater Vancouver excluding Richmond and probably the West Side, prices haven’t moved at all.

#31 FATHER on 05.05.13 at 6:33 pm

only reason i have not left vancouver is because i believe housing here will crash. I’ve being seeing alot of people losing jobs left right center. my trade is always in demand i am very diversified never scared to get my hands dirty unlike other trademen who only do new construction. i look at craigslist adds rental after rental even brand new homes i was looking for empoyeees & saw at least 15 realestates applying.

#32 Fzzzz on 05.05.13 at 6:34 pm

So where is this slice of heaven? Peggy’s Cove? Or don’t you want the riff-raff to flood the place and drive prices up?

#33 jess on 05.05.13 at 6:34 pm

ireland

http://treasureislands.org/the-capture-of-tax-haven-ireland-the-bankers-hedge-funds-got-virtually-everything-they-wanted/

…”They met under the auspices of the “Clearing House”, a secretive group of financial industry executives, accountants and public servants formed in 1987 to promote Dublin as a financial hub.

This sentence will ring alarm bells with anyone who’s read the “Ratchet” chapter. But there’s more.

…The participants thrashed out 21 separate taxation and legal incentives sought by the financial industry at the meeting, which took place in room 308 in the prime ministers’ offices.”
. . .
“The lobbying was done in secret behind closed doors,” says Nessa Childers, an Irish member of the European parliament, who got minutes of the meeting using freedom of information laws last year. “The bankers and hedge fund industry got virtually everything they asked for while the public got hit with a number of austerity measures”.

The minutes of the meetings, along with a statement from Childers, are provided by Childers here. The last sentence epitomises the captured financial state. For more details on how Ireland got captured, see this special report for TJN’s Financial Secrecy Index.

STATEMENT BY NESSA CHILDERSLabour Party MEP for Ireland East Wednesday, 25th April 2012 FOI REQUEST ON IFSC GOVT LOBBYINGREVEALS NEED FOR TRANSPARENCY Labour MEP Nessa Childers today called for greater transparency on how international finance lobbies the Irish government on EU policy. “From a Freedom of Information request, I have discovered the extent of theinternational finance industry’s regular and direct access into the heart of the Irish government, to influence not only Irish policy but also Ireland’s stance on EU policy.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/91354148/FOI-DeptFinance-Childers

#34 Sebee on 05.05.13 at 6:39 pm

Sounds like Garth is subliminally suggesting a place for smoking man to move to from the dreamy W6 silicates, prison and GO Train mecca.

#35 Anthony on 05.05.13 at 6:42 pm

Visited Halifax a few years ago to visit a friend finishing up at Dal. A short and cheap 2.5 hr porter flight from Toronto.

Beautiful city, would love to live there… maybe one day.

Happy to hear their real estate hasn’t succumbed to the same greed and speculation.

#36 Koshy Alex on 05.05.13 at 6:44 pm

Price cuts are happening in toronto, check out this property, 610 Van Horne Ave, was listed by century 21 last year for 799,000, dropped to 759,000, still couldn’t sell and got delisted, still has an youtube video with the 799,000 price
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuGm2xMM8xY

Now listed again for 699,900

An almost similar house, 604 Van Horne was listed for $599,900 and was sold last week, not sure what the final sale price was

#37 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 05.05.13 at 6:54 pm

Lunenburg Garth?
Was down there last summer, they had just finished the hull on the Bluenose.
Toss up between there and Chester for a beautiful spot to retire.

#38 blasé on 05.05.13 at 6:57 pm

my last comment was garbled. meant that out west you can’t get a family doctor, so clinics are everywhere. not do out east I hear.

#39 jess on 05.05.13 at 6:58 pm

so why do they still build crap here

zero energy home…houze
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/inside-the-house-with-no-energy-bills-x_iKY21pSEOCtDnDdI5OuQ.html

“customer disruption”
http://www.eei.org/ourissues/finance/Documents/disruptivechallenges.pdf
http://grist.org/climate-energy/solar-panels-could-destroy-u-s-utilities-according-to-u-s-utilities/

#40 Tom Vu on 05.05.13 at 7:03 pm

Last few were fine. Less snow than Toronto. Are you a BC metrosexual creampuff? — Garth

===================================

Not possible.

Any that snuck through the BC Alberta border will be returned to Toronto.

All the rest are just crisis actors to make Easterners feel less intimidated.

PS: Oh Yeah…same 2 U

#41 RayofLight on 05.05.13 at 7:15 pm

My wife and I toured the Atlantic Provinces . At the end ,we thought they were Canada’s best kept secret.

#42 Tom Vu on 05.05.13 at 7:21 pm

#19 Shawn on 05.05.13 at 5:46 pm

Retire By 55…

It is possible for some people.

We are both 53 and our two kids will start college this year and next. They will live in residence on campus. $150k sits in the RESP to pay for it.

We are in a position to “retire” (leave full-time paid work) any time we want. Yes, we will have two government pensions (cue the invectives and jealousy)

==================================

Why expect animosity?

You are a valuable member of society in the bigger picture!

Being a “Lookout for Tidal Waves in Saskatchewan” has saved many lives.

Worth every penny!

I mean…having 200 working days annually …100 sick days…20 weeks vacation…and the ability to retire early (pro-rated at 50% of IQ)……and then have 2nd job after retire consulting to Gov’t with reference to last job …..and displacing 30+ years younger Arts degree trying to get into self- entitlement Gov’t job ….. is your Dam 4Qing right!

Life is survival of the taxpayer -subsidized strongest !

Apology is somewhere between sign of weakness and diaper -filling guilt !

#43 fleabitten Monkey on 05.05.13 at 7:24 pm

referencing your comment to my #12 post,
I read the article this weekend and simply asked for your take on it since I value your opinions on such things. Nobody in my household or circle of friends has “fallen” for the advice contained in the piece. But thanks just the same for your response.

#44 mx420 on 05.05.13 at 7:26 pm

haha funny i just watched this video a few days ago

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqQJKj7qzL0

#45 Spiltbongwater on 05.05.13 at 7:30 pm

Garth, so what you are saying is my $350K Langley townhouse should hold its value?

#46 Freedom First on 05.05.13 at 7:35 pm

“I think she retired” …….hilarious Garth:)

I saw the video on the place you bought Garth. I am glad you found your little peace of heaven, and I am glad for you. Interesting, I love my lifestyle, the work I do, and where I live, and yet, some people will look at my life, and point out what they don’t like as it is not for them. Funny way to be I think, as I am just glad for people who enjoy their life and are happy. But then, I realize it is not all about me………”Freedom First”

#47 dutch4505 on 05.05.13 at 7:39 pm

“New York is cold, but I like where I am living.
There’s music on Clinton street all through the evening.”
Former Canadian, now US citizen and living in USA. I do not feel sorry for the people that speculate in real estate and lose. Find a place to live, and enjoy.

#48 johnnyk on 05.05.13 at 7:40 pm

I retired 4 years ago at age 40 and tried to buy on the south shore last summer. I kept a boat in Mahone Bay for years while living in the Annapollis Valley and knew the area well. People in southern Ontario have lots of great places also, I grew up there, but there is definitely a different more relaxed vibe on the east coast. Anyhow it is a very slow market. The 94 year old who I tried to buy from was holding out for more money! The land was nice but the house was a gut job. It’s still for sale for the same price so I guess he made it through the winter. (his children were pressuring him to sell)

#49 Sparky55 on 05.05.13 at 7:54 pm

@#34 Anthony

‘Happy to hear their real estate hasn’t succumbed to the same greed and speculation.”

The greed and speculation is here too, especially in the Halifax region.
Prices are faltering now though and multiple price drops are becoming common. Taxes are also really high.

In the rural areas, the prices have not risen nearly as much, as a lot of rural areas are shrinking and in some cases dying from lack of tax revenue (eg Canso). This is mostly due to younger generations moving to where there is work.
There are some rural areas that are generally maintaining population: places on a major highway, retirement towns, university towns, and a few places where there is a large industrial employer or industry (eg tires and some farms).

The fishing towns that were all over the place are mostly skeletons of their past.

#50 I like dogs better than people on 05.05.13 at 8:15 pm

The chocolate lab didn’t do it, that spaniel looking dog is trying to frame her.

#51 Rob on 05.05.13 at 8:18 pm

#3 Singh
Prices in N.Delta and Surrey B.C are slowing coming down. Homes are staying longer on the market and jot selling, also noticed homes taken off the market then put back on months later with a new price advertising just listed. Some town homes I have noticed drop in value as much as $30,000. The other day I was listenng to a economist who believes we will not have a fast USA style correction but a slow motion crash. So may people here in Surrey are now talking about a correction when before the attitude was buy now or be priced out forever.

#52 Ex-Cowtown on 05.05.13 at 8:25 pm

#3 Singh on 05.05.13 at 4:58 pm
Prices in North Delta and Surrey, BC have not gone down at all. Is this a stable market were prices will stay high and not drop? I need to buy at some point…
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You NEED to buy? The only person who NEEDS you to buy is your realtor. Here’s reality:

1. You NEED water.

2. You NEED food.

3. You NEED clothes.

4. You NEED affordable shelter.

You just WANT to buy a house. So go buy one. Just realize that buying to satisfy #4 may impact your ability to fund #’s 1 through 3 for the rest of your life.

You NEED a lot of things, but buying a house is a WANT.

#53 Chickenlittle on 05.05.13 at 8:33 pm

#20 timmy:

I’ll bet you shovel snow in Birkenstocks and socks…WHITE socks with grey toes and heels…I know your kind…

#54 Figures Lie on 05.05.13 at 8:34 pm

58 Hopson Street, Lunenburg.

Sold April 2002 for $149K.

ON MARKET NOW FOR $289K.

I call bs on the affordability of Lunenburg.

There was an article I read in the local paper a couple of years ago saying that real estate prices were driving locals away.

Bought 11 years ago, renovated and for sale again. Price reduced from $335,000. Are you on drugs? — Garth

#55 Borrow on 05.05.13 at 8:34 pm

Looks cheap in Nova Scotia if you come from the big city having recently sold expensive real estate. Sure there are nice places on the South Shore or Fundy that look sweet on MLS but the economy there is weak.

In Halifax there is a fair share of property flipping and excessive asking prices. Lots of fresh paint and staging of houses that are well past their prime. The average condo now costs more than the average house.

Nothing against the lifestyle, but don’t be fooled by the lower prices on MLS. They are lower for a reason. People who work here have to fend with lower wages & higher taxes. They just can’t afford as much house.

#56 TurnerNation on 05.05.13 at 8:36 pm

NS is governed by the NDP!

#57 frank le skank on 05.05.13 at 8:43 pm

Halifax and some other cities will see a correction, no doubt about that. I have many young friends who mortgaged their eyeballs out due to the lax lending, especially in Halifax. Yes that is anecdotal but as discussed before on this site, realtors, mortgage brokers and the likes have used things like the ship building contract to justify rising prices. The rural areas don’t get caught up in the hype of having granite counter tops and the houses are not brick. The values of rural houses has not increased very much, basically pacing inflation. It is a great place to live and I can’t wait to retire in 20 years.

#58 JB on 05.05.13 at 8:46 pm

Meanwhile in S’toon things are going thru the flippin roof… Glad I stayed on the sidelines sigh…..

#59 Tripp on 05.05.13 at 8:49 pm

@ #38 jess

Jess, I worked in design and project management for residential and commercial development in four countries, three in Europe and the fourth being Canada. The construction standards here are considered inadequate in most of the Old World, actually very few allow for woodframe structures in urban areas. What we call energy efficient happened decades ago over there. And I take no joy in saying this, but we have a long way to catch them…

#60 Nemesis on 05.05.13 at 8:50 pm

“Are you a BC metrosexual creampuff?” — Garth

You had me at “working harbour” and 5* GreasySpoons… and what OakenHearted SonOfTheWaves could ever forget the RusticSplendour and WholesomeAuthenticity of the Maritimes?

Creampuff was a bonus.

So, you BlueNose you… Is it Lunenberg then?

#61 George on 05.05.13 at 8:51 pm

I see RT television has a new financial news program (Prime Interest).

http://rt.com/shows/prime-interest/

#62 Smoking Man on 05.05.13 at 8:52 pm

#33 Sebee on 05.05.13 at 6:39 pm

Sounds like Garth is subliminally suggesting a place for smoking man to move to from the dreamy W6 silicates, prison and GO Train mecca

…………

Losing my siblings few years back, now I’m an only child, pops is 95 mom is 90,their is a good possibly pops will out live me. The bugger is strong. If I outlive them, the second last bit of dirt is shoveld on the grave site…..

I’m in the carabian, never to return to this pathetic weather….

#63 AK on 05.05.13 at 8:58 pm

#175 Craig on 05.05.13 at 4:09 pm
“Conceding the Fed’s buying program is a “huge experiment,” Buffett said, “This is like watching a good movie, and I do not know the end.”
——————————————————————–
Nothing wrong with his answer.

He is right. Nobody knows how it’s going to end. Except for you, ofcourse.

I also don’t see Warren Buffett saying that he will be loading up on Gold, unlike you.

#64 Yuus bin Haad on 05.05.13 at 9:13 pm

Three sheets to the wind, Garth – let’s talk Yacht Rock next time!

#65 Sparky55 on 05.05.13 at 9:21 pm

South Shore property
Started at $1.5M in 2007 after it was built. Sold today for $570,000 with a $649,000 ask price.

http://www.viewpoint.ca/property/cutsheet/60189958?no-nav=1&no-footer=1

#66 Walter Safety on 05.05.13 at 9:26 pm

The best thing about the east coast is the governments have zero chance of getting the money from their citizens to pay government debt.
PEI 155,000 people. 1.5 B debt same as T.O
The lower cost of living will continue .
OK ,I’m wrong ,there are a lot better things than that .
Lots of like minded people like Garth looking to go off grid.

#67 Smoking Man on 05.05.13 at 9:46 pm

Money’s like a black hole, the more have the more it’s gravitational pull.

Yesterday, I’m reading the bad banksters, the fed… Printing money like no tomorrow…

Who do you think that hurts more a low level tax farm slave or billionaires.

Government, central banks are doing everything in there power to get zilionairs to spend loot… And make jobs… Printing money out of thin air hurts Em….. More… It’s motivation for Em to be more risk takers

You guys are so back wards on your thinking….

But then Alex Jones, Peter shift, who by the way I enjoy are making shit loads of loot on your ignorance…

They are smoking men…

#68 Big Al (New) on 05.05.13 at 9:52 pm

I’m with Smoking Man, bought in the Bahamas 2 years ago for less than a midrange Mercedes. Oh yes they do get hit with hurricanes but we rebuild when necessary. People are friendly and happy and weather like TO in the summer time but year round. Friends just purchased three doors down a two bedroom unit fully furnished for less than 6 figures. Crime rates are the lowest of all the Caribbean islands, cost of living day to day a little higher but worth the extra cost. Direct flights with Westjet average $550 return out of TO during peak season and take just 3 hrs to get there. Any other time same price but connecting through Miami. Like Nova Scotia but you can bank the other 250k and use the profits to fund your lifestyle in the sun.

#69 TomJefferson on 05.05.13 at 9:54 pm

Sshhhhhhh Garth! I moved to Nova Scotia from Toronto last year and loving it. Couldn’t pay me to move back. Please don’t let the secret out.

#70 The Prophet on 05.05.13 at 9:56 pm

Looks like listing keep climbing in Calgary and area, over 6,000 now.

#71 Jonah on 05.05.13 at 9:58 pm

The quest continues and takes us all the way to Georgina to look for affordable house. One builder that we found out has started there phase 1. Prices are somewhat lower compared to New Market and “Dog poo riddled” Mount Albert.

Immigrants are fueling the prices in GTA. John Doe a friend of mine who owns 10 properties in India, and couple of them in GTA has signed up for another one in Brampton, a corner unit townhome for 450K, a steal deal as he is confident that the prices for these will go up as well and he can always rent to a greater fool. It seems to me that GTA is built for investors all the way from Clarington to Georgina and beyound. Government will never catch the flippers as they keep the economy “rolling”

#72 Shawn on 05.05.13 at 10:05 pm

Ex-Cowtown at 51 said:

You NEED a lot of things, but buying a house is a WANT.

*****************************************
True but in our rich society 90% or more of us can easily meet our NEEDs and have moved onto our WANTS.

Life is full of choices and many of those choices are about WANTS. And it’s a wonderful thing.

Most of us have no desire to step back 500 years in time where it was all a person could do to meet their NEEDS and WANTS were not much in the picture.

People who buy houses understand that they could rent. And yes they WANT to buy. It’s a free country in that respect.

#73 Abraxas on 05.05.13 at 10:07 pm

Garth,
The Maritimes did have a bit of a bubble as well. Saint John, NB for example, saw a lot of speculative construction on the rumour of the second refinery coming online. Now that it is almost certainly not happening those houses are flooding the market and making the locals very upset as nothing ever moves in the RE market there.

#74 Here is a classical example of idiocy -he invested in 3 houses on 05.05.13 at 10:13 pm

Check this out:

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/do-realtors-give-discount-multiple-house-transactions-1334600/

and also see his posts. The idiot insisted for months that RE are in Toronto and Calgary are fine and prices can go nowhere else than up. I think that the guy is in big big trouble. He pretends that he wants to upgrade. I guess the guy speculated condos.

#75 Smoking Man on 05.05.13 at 10:16 pm

My wife is p-m-esing huge at moment, ah a smart an knows days like this, shut up take it, don’t engage.

Huh, what, I agree, 30 years bubble heads,

Shirt she out of control…….. Lol

I love the drama of life……

Ya I’m weird……..

#76 Mister Obvious on 05.05.13 at 10:18 pm

#70 Jonah

“…he is confident that the prices for these will go up as well and he can always rent to a greater fool”
———————————

Huh? … this statement simply does not compute.

#77 Big Al (New) on 05.05.13 at 10:19 pm

Properties are absolutely flying in the Shawa (Oshawa) as this market took a big hit with the collapse and rebirth of GM. The 407 extension will first see it go to Simcoe St. And then to the 115 eventually easing the terrible congestion that plagues this region. Apart from some bad jokes that have no basis in fact this is a great city to live in. Anecdotally average time from listing to sale has been under two weeks at least for the listings I see daily. Beautiful older bungalows built in the 60’s and 70’s with huge lots usually run 3-350k, some in need of renovation can be had in the 250-300k range. Go train to take you to the Big Suck if you need.

#78 Party On Garth on 05.05.13 at 10:21 pm

Please don’t do posts like this Garth. If you spotlight the great places in this country that still enjoy an actual Canadian lifestyle, they will soon be flooded by pious, nauseating GTA “urban progressive” yuppies who will surely spoil the place.

#79 White Rock Mom on 05.05.13 at 10:36 pm

Sign me up!
I hope my husband doesn’t mind commuting to downtown Vancouver from Nova Scotia. All joking aside, I like your plan. Maybe this is something to consider. A remote property to vacation at and retire at in the future. Whar about your kids? Don’t you want to live near your children? Moms always want to be close to their kids. They won’t have an ties to a property a two hour flight away. My kids are still young but I will want to be close to them when they get married and bless us with grandchildren. Interesting idea.

#80 Humpty Dumpty on 05.05.13 at 10:39 pm

So, is smug a sin?…

Not even close, but promoting the values of a traditional family will be soon enough….

Real estate giant Re/Max has fired one of its Toronto-area realtors after he was accused of disseminating homophobic material as part of a promotional brochure

One side of the flyer featured “information on how to maintain your air conditioner, how to save money … all things you need to know if you’re looking to purchase a home,”

But the other side of the flyer featured an article titled “Traditional Family Is the Best for the Future of the Kids.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/05/03/andrew-ciastek-remax-real_n_3209353.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-business

You city folk obviously don’t like Hicks… now do ya….

#81 FATHER on 05.05.13 at 10:56 pm

REMEMBER PEOPLE FROM INDIA ALL HAVE KIDS 99% AND THE POPULATION GROWS & GROWS AND THEY ONLY HAVE LIMITED AMOUNT OF LAND SO LAND PRICES NEVER BUST SO THEY COME HERE & THINK THAT SAME WAY NOT KNOWING THAT WE HAVE BOOMS & BUSTS

#82 Astounded on 05.05.13 at 10:58 pm

Wow, Tom Vu has finally achieved the ultimate level of stupidity. His foolish comments are actually now making smoking man look like a scholar.

#83 FATHER on 05.05.13 at 11:04 pm

sorry I never have been to Toronto but I know they have a lot of jobs & a bigger population than Vancouver but the real estate has always been cheaper than Vancouver for some reason at least that’s what I have seen since the last boom & this one.

#84 HD on 05.05.13 at 11:07 pm

#51Ex-Cowtown on 05.05.13 at 8:25 pm

Very well put.

Best,

HD

#85 Tri State Pat on 05.05.13 at 11:15 pm

#28 Roial1

I was at that Restaurant also many years ago. Guess what , I’m still telling my wife about the clam chowder they had.

Man that was good.

Plus the folks in Nova Scotia were really nice.

#86 al on 05.05.13 at 11:28 pm

#70 Jonah
“..Immigrants are fueling the prices in GTA..”
the “immigrants” are coming in with a few thousand dollars in their pockets and then proceed to struggle to get menial jobs – i.e. proverbial Phd driving a cab.
there might be a blood tears and sweat corrupt money folks coming in, but it’s not sustainable.

the good thing is, when it all unravels , the crooked weasels will lose 50% of their investments (by a friendly prediction)

#87 thiscountryis going down the toilet on 05.05.13 at 11:34 pm

Ah yes…..the bucolic life among the savages….thats what we should all shoot for. Again…someone is missing the mark by thousands of miles. There is a reason that prices are so high where they are high and that is the overhead enforced by government……don’t blame the cities….open your eyes and blame the real enemy….the people who are running them.

DCC’s in Vancouver are over $150,000….thats just the start of why prices are what they are…..wages, pensions and the overhead of the elite…….focus people.

I’m driving a 2013 GMC Denali in Dallas …it cost $19, 500.00 USD on the lot…….in Vancouver the very same truck is $42,000…………wow….are there ever a lot of suckers north of the border.

A new 3000 sq ft house with granite and appliances here cost under $200,000…..no civil servants here getting rich and living large of multi hundred thousand dollar salaries like they are at the crown corps and city halls.

I saw some house in a nice neighborhood ( starters but decent) for under $90,000………ask yourself…why are prices the way they are…is it speculation or a systemic problem supporting the massive civil service overhead…so much so that the government has jacked up costs in order to generate more tax revenue?

Don’t get me started on why T-bone steaks are under $5 on the plate…when the same slab would cost $40 in Canada.

And no…..I don’t want to think that having Japanese tourists in my area throwing crumbs at the peasents is anything to crow about.

#88 detalumis on 05.05.13 at 11:36 pm

Sure Lunenburg, great place, 1/3 of the population are senior citizens, median age is over 50, population declining. Great hospital with what 6 acute care beds, you get cancer or anything else you need to travel to Halifax. You get old lose your licence than what – oops that will never happen to you right.

Nothing turns you into an old man faster than moving to a small town in the back of beyond, its where people go to enjoy a faux life away from the big bad boogieman city sort of like a Niagara-on-the-Lake with bigger waves.

Old happens anywhere, dude. Might as well live in a place where you have more exercise, less stress, rational neighbours and a killer new bike. — Garth

#89 Cory on 05.05.13 at 11:49 pm

Layoffs galore in Calgary, not an oil co turning a profit and yet the scummy real estate pumpers who make money for doing nothing say it’s hot and it’s because the AB economy is strong and also hot.

Herald can’t stop pumping for those same slimy people who sell the stuff and make money for doing nothing. Herald must be running out of revenue streams.

#90 45north on 05.06.13 at 12:18 am

Wolfville NS is nice. University town.

Jonah: The quest continues and takes us all the way to Georgina to look for an affordable house.

Georgina on the shores of Lake Simcoe. The commute is the thing. Right away you have to have two cars $6000 a year for each car – for the rest of your life. I’m guessing that you cannot afford a house. The real estate agent is not obliged to tell you that you cannot afford a house. Neither is the bank.

#91 happy renter on 05.06.13 at 12:24 am

Where I live in Victoria,in a newer subdivision I can’t believe couples in their late 20’s and early 30’s can afford $400,000 to $500,000 houses.They also have newer cars,it goes to show younger people have it better then the generation before.

#92 Tom from Mississauga on 05.06.13 at 12:25 am

Is there men’s league hockey in Lunenburg?

#93 Future Expatriate on 05.06.13 at 12:34 am

#8 “Don’t you have a house to show?” – Garth

A- “Nope. Everyone finally quit flipping, can’t get loans, and are pissed they have to prove they have big enough bank accounts” (sulk).

#94 Tom Vu on 05.06.13 at 12:57 am

Money’s like a black hole, the more have the more it’s gravitational pu

===================================

I tink this implies diagnosis of constipation….

Many remedies……like prune juice or watchink Maple Leaves in Overtime

#95 ValleyRenter on 05.06.13 at 1:36 am

Condos and Townhouses in Panorama area of Surrey going begging…”we will pay your strata fees for three years” they flog…signs are up around 64th and King George…

#96 Buy? Curious? on 05.06.13 at 2:46 am

*Yawn*

I guess after the past few killer posts, you’re allowed a weak one here and there.

What about the fallout from the Star? Aren’t there lawyers sending you cease and desist letters? What about all the hate mail you get from mortgage brokers and realaturds blaming you for the slowdown? Why don’t you post that!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FUjbzBs_SI

#97 ValleyRenter on 05.06.13 at 3:05 am

Might be worth checking out the Vancouver Province article from Sunday about their article on BPOE Seniors not being able to live off their savings through retirement…worth checking out.

#98 Jane24 on 05.06.13 at 3:08 am

The South Shores of this world will take off as the baby boomers retire and look for lovely cheap places to live- they don’t have to work. No need for a job.

Here in England seaside resorts that have been in the dumps for years due to better weather if you holiday in Greece, are turning around as retirees move in.

Changing demographics will mean changing RE markets. Lots of lovely places in the world with both easy access and low cost retirements opportunities.

#99 betamax on 05.06.13 at 3:09 am

#11 Bill Gable: “my extended family is discussing moving to Nova Scotia.”

My wife and I, also in Dampcouver, are considering our options also.

“$71,000 to maintain a modest lifestyle here”

Exactly. It’s insane. I find it hard to imagine how many people get by on less in this burg.

[Cue commercial: "Making your home equity work for you -- Alpine Credits!"]

“Hell, with a touch of foam.”

Well said. A quote I’ll steal at the next opportunity.

#100 S on 05.06.13 at 3:19 am

Small city life presents its own set of challenges and is not for everyone. I made that move several years ago. All is good… but I’d never do it again.
Prior to making such decision one might give serious consideration to career possibilities, opportunities to further ones education, availability of tertiary-level healthcare (there is a reason why smaller cities are hurting for specialists while doctors prefer to wait for openings in large centers) and cultural events. One may learn only too late that pick-your-favourite-fruit fest is not the thought provoking, intellectually stimulating activity one hoped it to be.

#101 Devore on 05.06.13 at 6:01 am

#93 Buy? Curious?

Not enough drama in your life?

#102 Ballingsford on 05.06.13 at 6:14 am

Garth, an early post last night and the SENS won again. Game 1-early post and SENS win. Game 2 – game time post and SENS lose. Game 3-early post and SENS win.

I’m not superstitious, just saying.

Go SENS Go! Keep up the good work Garth!!!

#103 Raven on 05.06.13 at 7:28 am

Stupidity got us into this mess (easy credit).

Stupidity will get us out of this mess( easier credit ).

How common is common sense. Seems to be harder and harder to associate with……

#104 Timbo on 05.06.13 at 7:31 am

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/06/us-china-economy-services-pmi-idUSBRE94501020130506

The HSBC services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 51.1 in April from 54.3 in March, with new order expansion the slowest in 20 months and staffing levels in the service sector decreasing for the first time since January 2009.

Two separate PMIs last week had already shown that China’s manufacturing sector growth slowed, With the weakness spreading to services, which make up almost half of gross domestic product, the risk to the recovery may be increasing.

tick…tick….

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/oil-price-above-96-a-barrel-as-strong-us-jobs-report-points-to-rising-demand/2013/05/06/56954a5a-b60c-11e2-b568-6917f6ac6d9d_story.html

“The contract jumped $1.62 to finish at $95.61 on Friday after U.S. employers added a surprisingly solid 165,000 jobs in April. That drove down the unemployment rate to a four-year low of 7.5 percent and suggested the U.S. economic recovery may be gathering pace.”

yay to airstrikes and to solid (lol) job growth……..

#105 Buy? Curious? on 05.06.13 at 8:20 am

Devore, why don’t put on one of your “Buy 1 get 4 free!” suits and write to someone who cares.

#106 Tony on 05.06.13 at 9:09 am

Re: #87 Cory on 05.05.13 at 11:49 pm

Not to mention the next move for oil is down to the 60 dollar mark. For the people who missed the short on it at 97 dollars better late than never. It might be fifty years before it crosses the century mark again.

#107 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 05.06.13 at 9:26 am

#80 Astounded on 05.05.13 at 10:58 pm

Wow, Tom Vu has finally achieved the ultimate level of stupidity. His foolish comments are actually now making smoking man look like a scholar.

Tom Vu 1st
Smoking Man 2nd ?

Please say it aint so Joe!

#108 Dupcheck on 05.06.13 at 9:30 am

London On, has affordable home prices and good quality of life. People are nicer than Toronto and less stressed out.

#109 AACI Okanagan on 05.06.13 at 9:38 am

Love Lunenburg Garth, we have friends and relatives within the area and visit there regularly. We had planned on retiring there and were looking to buy in 2005. The wife has a history of cancer, she won both battles with it, but after exploring Nova Scotia’s health care plan we found out that they do not pay for many chemo pills and radiation treatments as they do in here in BC. It pained us to scratch Nova Scotia off our list as a place we wanted to retire.

#110 Adam P on 05.06.13 at 9:39 am

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2013/05/06/toronto_new_condo_sales_slump_55_per_cent_in_first_quarter.html

Even Sue herself couldn’t put lipstick on that Pigg.

She completely ignored BILD’s press release with the same stats, but ran with Urban Nation’s piece? Weird. Oh well. This is like watching a slow motion car wreck happen, with delusional people saying “oh, I’m sure that drunk driver will swerve out of the way at the last minute and it will all be fine”

#111 Herb on 05.06.13 at 9:51 am

#101 Ballingsford,

every day we decry the stupidity of those seduced by easy credit, and you give us a prime example of the same by someone seduced by sportainment!

#112 Piccaso on 05.06.13 at 10:01 am

Don’t burn the city just yet, the Vancouver Collapse still have one more loss before the Sedin sisters are swept.

#113 AK on 05.06.13 at 10:16 am

Warren Buffett: Stocks Will Go a ‘Lot Higher’

Buffett

Typical comments at the end of the article as well….

#114 Silver on 05.06.13 at 10:30 am

been away for a while…
interesting times…
sold in Vancouver….
moved to Silverdale in Mission
280,000+ lbs and 11… 20 foot by 8 foot by 9foot 6 inch C-Cans later…
George Carlin’s “stuff” skit comes to mind.

… so my mortgage here is over $1750.00 dollars a month less than my property tax in the Socialist Real Estate City of Scumcouver.
Where I had… ” to much land and deserved to pay more tax’s because I was depriving other people of a home”…city council member.
Helps my contribution to the less work party ethos a great deal.
Been a very interesting process.
The trucking industry seems to have a bit of a problem with work here…
one driver told me the other day that Rona had laid of its full time driver here… haven’t confirmed this other than from the drivers.
I was some of the drivers only work those days…
My excavator Guy (Nice big 350) to move the C-Cans onto my property…
work was shaky according to him all over, asked if he could park his machine for 2 weeks…. yikes….
\
The number of Older couples who are getting ready to sell or subdivide out here is interesting.
There is a very very big expectant retiring market getting ready to cash out here… of exactly the demographic Garth has been talking about…
The street I now live on is named after a guy named Gaglardi… very middle of the road conservative.

the longer I am out here, the more I believe the property manager who said he was servicing 337 foreclosures and bank held properties in Mission and Maple Ridge…
I think its much much higher.
Still in shock from the move… but a lovely acreage it is
we moved to, and the creek on two side helps.
3 types of Cherry, 2 pear, 2 plum, Blueberry, Saskatoon, Salmonberry, And apparently the best apple tree in the neighborhood.
Oh and Property tax of $160 a month beats Vancouvers $2500. a month for retirement purposes.
Vancouvers the best place on earth… really?

Love your blog Garth.. as always…

Silver

Bought it from the Court Master at $270. ASSsessment $400…. and am very very happy

#115 CP on 05.06.13 at 11:06 am

Thoughts sir?

http://www.torontostandard.com/the-sprawl/crowdsourcing-condos

#116 Tom Vu on 05.06.13 at 11:12 am

#80 Astounded on 05.05.13 at 10:58 pm

Wow, Tom Vu has finally achieved the ultimate level of stupidity. His foolish comments are actually now making smoking man look like a scholar.

==================================

Why, thank you very much.

It does take a while for my wisdom to be absorbed….special classes for Gov’t workers.

#117 Raginnn on 05.06.13 at 11:32 am

Better reporting of the news

Toronto Star by Susan Pigg LOL

Toronto condo sales slumped in the first quarter of this year as developers held back new project launches in the face of a softening market.
Toronto’s condo boom took a big breather in the first quarter of this year.

Sales plummeted by 55 per cent in the first three months of 2013 over the same period last year, as developers held back new project launches and took a wait-and-see approach in the face of a softening market and climbing inventory of condos for sale.

http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2013/05/06/toronto_new_condo_sales_fall_55_in_2013.html

#118 Penny Henny on 05.06.13 at 11:34 am

Toronto Star headline
*Pathetic blog hurting Canadian’s productivity*

It is estimated that 2,000 Canadians are spending an hour of each workday reading Garth Turner’s pathetic blog.
2000 people x 1 hour per day x 200 workdays per year x $30/hr in lost productivity = $12,000,000.00

Get ready Garth, H is sending you the bill.

Penny Henny

Times ten,actually. Yikes. — Garth

#119 Ronaldo on 05.06.13 at 11:39 am

#79 Father – said:

”REMEMBER PEOPLE FROM INDIA ALL HAVE KIDS 99% AND THE POPULATION GROWS & GROWS AND THEY ONLY HAVE LIMITED AMOUNT OF LAND SO LAND PRICES NEVER BUST SO THEY COME HERE & THINK THAT SAME WAY NOT KNOWING THAT WE HAVE BOOMS & BUSTS”

The following taken from this link would suggest that we are far from running out of land on this big mass we reside on.

http://www.simplyshrug.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=63:the-overpopulation-myth&catid=31:general&Itemid=50)

”So how much land would we need to house all 7 billion of us if we lived in such density? (New York City) Well, we would need (79 8.36 790 ÷ ÷) 666,265 square kilometers. A big area, no? Well, let’s look further…

Upon examining the US, we find out that Texas fits the bill nicely. In fact, Texas has 261,797.12 square miles of land, and that is (261792.12 1.602 1.602 × ×) 671,877.17 square kilometers! Which is, in fact, more than the area we need to house all 7 billion of us at typical New York City densities. Meaning every man, woman, and child living and breathing on the face of the Earth could fit in relative comfort within the land territory of the State of Texas.”

#120 Name on 05.06.13 at 11:51 am

MLS#: C2614880
604 Van Horne Ave
List: $599,900
Sold: $658,000

#121 Ronaldo on 05.06.13 at 11:53 am

”Old happens anywhere, dude. Might as well live in a place where you have more exercise, less stress, rational neighbours and a killer new bike. — Garth”

Absolutely. I’ve always maintained if you want to get old, just think old. I spend a great deal of time hiking and cimbing mountains with people much older than I am and in their 80’s who are in much better shape than a lot of 20 and 30 year olds I know. Have been retired now for 13 years and don’t feel any different than when I was 21. I’ve always said that I will not be one of those retirees who gather at MacD’s and A&W most mornings for their two hour coffee break. Can’t think of a faster way of getting old. Plan to be buried with my hiking boots on.

#122 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 05.06.13 at 12:00 pm

#118 Ronaldo on 05.06.13 at 11:39 am
Upon examining the US, we find out that Texas fits the bill nicely. In fact, Texas has 261,797.12 square miles of land, and that is (261792.12 1.602 1.602 × ×) 671,877.17 square kilometers! Which is, in fact, more than the area we need to house all 7 billion of us at typical New York City densities. Meaning every man, woman, and child living and breathing on the face of the Earth could fit in relative comfort within the land territory of the State of Texas.”

I am currently searching for a major deodorant manufacturer in which to invest in if this comes to play! Can you imagine the opportunities?

#123 Ronaldo on 05.06.13 at 12:01 pm

#89 Happy Renter

”Where I live in Victoria,in a newer subdivision I can’t believe couples in their late 20′s and early 30′s can afford $400,000 to $500,000 houses.They also have newer cars,it goes to show younger people have it better then the generation before.”

Only because of the lowest rates in history.

#124 HogtownIndebted on 05.06.13 at 12:16 pm

Oh Garth,

To earn one English degree may be regarded as a misfortune; to earn two looks like carelessness.

sigh…..

But at least you can appreciate this new novel; it reads almost like it was written from the crumbs of this blog:

http://arts.nationalpost.com/2013/03/28/book-review-mount-pleasant-by-don-gillmor/

The author describes a house horny boomer, in debt up to his ears, whose life has melted down in a puddle of unrequited real estate dreams in Toronto, complete with granite countertops and weird tradesmen.

Highly recommended for all Gen x+y -ers!

#125 Frank & Beans on 05.06.13 at 12:36 pm

I agree Garth that the banks hold 35% of debt towards mortgages – but – how about all those loans in which I am sure people will default on first before letting that cherished house go down – I think the banks are gonna feel some pain – I will sit on the sidelines and scoop up some nicely discounted banking stocks when the dust settles – isn’t the new saying “it’s not the fundamentails that matter any more – just perception” – if you “think” it’s gonna hurt – people are gonna react accordingly.

Nova Scotia – the most beautiful place in Canada if your income and support it -

#126 Dorothy on 05.06.13 at 12:41 pm

Being able to buy houses for less in areas that are far away from “the big smoke” is nothing new. It’s been that way for as long as I can remember.
There has ALWAYS been more demand in the larger centres, partially because there is more work available there, and partially because many people desire living in large cities where there are more cultural opportunities. But whatever the reason, high demand always has, and alway will, lead to higher prices. That’s not new.
Smaller, more rural, less in demand areas always have, and always will, command lower prices. That’s not new either.
Unless your self employed, retired, or wealthy, you have to live where the work is. So many of the less expensive locations are not available to most of those who are still in the workforce. But even if they were able to buy in such a place, there is more to consider than just the purchase price. Many of the places where homes cost less, have much higher property taxes than places where homes are more expensive. This is because frequently there are fewer companies to share the tax burden in such locations, meaning a larger portion falls on the residential taxpayer.
We used to live in North Western Ontario and, while houses there are less than they are here in BC, my property taxes there would be nearly double on a home priced similarly to what my home here is worth.
For those on fixed incomes, such as retirees, that is definitely something to consider when choosing a place to live.

#127 Bottoms_Up on 05.06.13 at 12:46 pm

#53 Figures Lie on 05.05.13 at 8:34 pm
——————————————
In 10 years a house doubling in value (especially a renovated one) is not all that astronomical when you account for inflation.

#128 Tom Vu on 05.06.13 at 12:57 pm

Toronto Star headline
*Pathetic blog hurting Canadian’s productivity*

It is estimated that 2,000 Canadians are spending an hour of each workday reading Garth Turner’s pathetic blog.
2000 people x 1 hour per day x 200 workdays per year x $30/hr in lost productivity = $12,000,000.00

Get ready Garth, H is sending you the bill.

Penny Henny

Times ten,actually. Yikes. — Garth

====================================

This is good news.

Probably mostly Gov’t workers, the less of their job they do….better for the people who actually work for living.

#129 bill on 05.06.13 at 12:57 pm

”and a killer new bike. — Garth”
Garth did you get a new bike?

Only the RCMP knows for sure. — Garth

#130 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 05.06.13 at 1:09 pm

#121 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 05.06.13 at 12:00 pm .

#118 Ronaldo on 05.06.13 at 11:39 am
Upon examining the US, we find out that Texas fits the bill nicely. In fact, Texas has 261,797.12 square miles of land, and that is (261792.12 1.602 1.602 × ×) 671,877.17 square kilometers! Which is, in fact, more than the area we need to house all 7 billion of us at typical New York City densities. Meaning every man, woman, and child living and breathing on the face of the Earth could fit in relative comfort within the land territory of the State of Texas.”

=====================================

Or Ontario…etc.

I had pointed this out as well..that there is enough land in these jurisdictions to provide SFH / 4 people each home for the global population.

IMHO, your Local Gov’t and its Planning Dept. are the equivalent of the Federal Reserve …. a license to print money.

Example…rezone low density to High density….create millions of dollars in Taxes for City and Profit for Developer.

They herd the Human Cattle into higher density , force scarcity and create artificial shortages = higher costs.

Only a few at the top benefit . Then they milk the public further as they impose even more infrastructure costs.

#131 Carlos on 05.06.13 at 2:18 pm

“where people live in houses they can afford. Never was a bubble. There won’t be a bust. Mortgage rates are irrelevant.”

did you compare income demographics to avg home prices? people will still take 20-25 years to pay a house, regardless of geography. in fact, why live off the rent of a home in Calgary? cause the is more demand and more wealth generation vs nova Scotia.

people don’t pay attention to mortgage rates? hard to believe.

sell a property to buy a house and a Mercedes in nova Scotia? that is a bad investment decision. try the reverse move …. impossible, without our with a market correction.

good luck!

#132 45north on 05.06.13 at 2:32 pm

Dr. Hoof – hearted: IMHO, your Local Gov’t and its Planning Dept. are the equivalent of the Federal Reserve …. a license to print money.

individual ambitions, competing visions, different interest groups, years of debate and organizing form the basis of the decisions of thousands of municipalities

http://hunt-club.ncf.ca/

some people actually do something

#133 Al on 05.06.13 at 2:35 pm

The 3 Thornhill homes in my neighbourhood that sat on the market for a couple of weeks and past the “offer dates” set on the initial listing all sold this weekend! Also noticed lots of cars outside the local RE Brokerage – must have been a busy weekend. Good times are here again !

#134 Jimmy on 05.06.13 at 2:52 pm

No bubble, just supply and demand. People want to live in Vancouver because its beautiful with mild weather. They want to live in Toronto because there is lots of money and jobs there. Alberta is booming. Nova Scotia? I’m sure its pleasant enough, but that doesn’t create enough demand to drive up real estate prices. But the faithful don’t care about this crap — they just want to know when they can have their Shaughnessy mansion for a song. And they’re relying on Garth to tell them when.

#135 Mister Obvious on 05.06.13 at 2:58 pm

“It is estimated that 2,000 Canadians are spending an hour of each workday reading Garth Turner’s pathetic blog. 2000 people x 1 hour per day x 200 workdays per year x $30/hr in lost productivity = $12,000,000.00″
————————————

Perhaps. But that figure must be balanced against the increase in public indebtedness that might otherwise have occurred if this blog did not exist.

At one time, Garth mentioned that only one percent of the readers of this blog ever bother to leave a comment. However, many people comment multiple times.

It’s not a stretch of the imagination to think that there could be, conservatively, 100 “unique” commenters on average daily.

That would imply 10,000 unique readers daily. Imagine if even one half of 1% of these readers, in taking Garth’s central message to heart, decided against assuming huge personal debt to purchase a seriously overpriced home or condo.

If we assume an average “avoided debt” of $300,000 (a moderate figure, I think) we have .005 * 10,000 * $300,000 = $15,000,000 of personal debt reduction in Canada thanks to the influence of greaterfool.ca.

Daily visitors average between 16,000 and 22,000. — Garth

#136 Carlitos on 05.06.13 at 3:00 pm

I am waiting house prices to go down because I need a bigger house but I am losing hope. I have no seen any sign of prices going down. Sales, maybe but we might be getting into normal condicions, in other words we are not experiencing the frenetic behaviour of previous years. I think GTA is really DIFFERENT!

#137 Raginnn on 05.06.13 at 3:05 pm

C & P from the G&M

CMHC to enter new era as CEO Kinsley confirms departure

Why not hire Brad Lamb or Bob Rennie?
How convenient…
We all know CMHC is there to facilitate the interests of RE developers and agencies, such as Re/Max and Royal Lepage.

“Prior to joining CMHC, Ms. Kinsley was Vice-President and Treasurer with two real estate development companies.”

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/about/cogo/cogo_011.cfm

#138 Smoking Man on 05.06.13 at 3:06 pm

Anyone check apple out today,,,,, cha ching!!!!!!!!

#139 Kent on 05.06.13 at 3:08 pm

The boom is happening in many of these smaller centres, driven by people escaping TO and Vancouver. Houses are being snapped up near Windsor and higher prices then they’ve been in years. Kinda suck for people like me who’ve been renting.

#140 Holy Crap Wheres the Tylenol on 05.06.13 at 3:32 pm

#135 Smoking Man on 05.06.13 at 3:06 pm

Anyone check apple out today,,,,, cha ching!!!!!!!!

I hope you are long on AAPL Smoking Man.
They have some very tech savvy software inclusions on the new technology. Apple is not only aiming to make the iOS 7 interface simpler than before, but it’s also exploring new ways to include “more ‘glance-able’ information and system options panels, like Notification Center, to the software.” iOS 7 will bring all new icons for Apple’s native applications. It will also include redesigned tool bars, tab bars and other fundamental interface features across the entire system. Developers of third-party apps are also expected to follow suit later on to make their apps iOS 7-friendly. Wait until WWDC in June before jumping ship.

#141 FATHER on 05.06.13 at 3:37 pm

don’t loose hope we will crash and burn. BEARS R ROCKSTARS

#142 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 05.06.13 at 3:41 pm

#130 45north on 05.06.13 at 2:32 pm

====================================

Perhaps where you live….but it is not my experience here in Metro Vancouver.

Often groups external to the core process are thrown a bone or controlled opposition.

#143 FATHER on 05.06.13 at 3:43 pm

just let the last of the house hornies buy .

#144 Snowboid on 05.06.13 at 3:57 pm

#85 thiscountryis going down the toilet on 05.05.13 at 11:34 pm …

While parts of your post are correct, especially the price differentials (although not sure how you found a 2013 GMC Denali Terrain/Acadia/Yukon or Pickup for $ 19,500 unless it was a rebuild).

No public servants getting rich – maybe peruse this list from 2011 for Dallas:

http://www.texastribune.org/library/data/government-employee-salaries/dallas/?page=1

Near as I can figure there are 8016 Dallas employees with 156 making $100K or over in 2011.

Or how about the 52,598 state public servants of whom 2,589 made over $ 100,000 in 2012!

Not enough, how about higher education where there are 25 staff making more than $ 750,000 with the highest salary of $ 5.2 million for a university head coach!

Oh, and BTW, there are a total of 674,000 public servants in Texas (City, County, State, Federal).

Whoops!

#145 johnnny on 05.06.13 at 4:02 pm

I see a lot of comments about how it’s cheaper to live in the USA,Bermuda,etc……
There are examples comparing the lower prices of accommodations(rent/own),food,transport,
restaurants,maids, gardeners,and on and on….
I have crunched the numbers of all these things and(from research)can agree.The thing I never see,though,is comparisons with Canadian medical/health expense,if you have given up residence in Canada,and are paying for full time medical insurance(NOT MEDICAL TRAVEL INSURANCE).
I have also crunched those numbers and I see a horror story of obscene monthly payments,especially the older you get.
Is there something I don’t know about that you people
have found a way around this,or do your comparisons account for this?
Just curious.

#146 bill on 05.06.13 at 4:02 pm

Garth: new bike or notmay I suggest highway 10 out of st johns to Midgut and back on highway 90 might be worth a look .in the middle of summer…
its not too far away from say lunenburg. 8 hr ferry trip of course.Newfoundland has some fantastic roads for bikes.

#147 Sebee on 05.06.13 at 4:20 pm

#61 Smoking Man

Geez…95…sounds like a strong gene pool. Don’t test the limits of the smoking and the drinking and we’ll all get to enjoy your commentary for decades to come. You can call yourself Clean Living, Man!

#148 Jim on 05.06.13 at 4:21 pm

Winters in NS – the issue is not the weather (as good/bad as anywhere in Canada), but not having much to do, especially for families with young kids.

By the way, check out the condo market in Halifax – delusional!!

That (winter boredom) is the dumbest comment yet. — Garth

#149 Karie on 05.06.13 at 4:30 pm

I’m happy you shared a little bit about yourself – very interesting that you have a place in NS. I have been out west and lived there but never been east of Quebec City. Looks and sounds amazing!

#150 jess on 05.06.13 at 4:42 pm

112 AK on 05.06.13 at 10:16 am

would you nonimate this type of manager for the treasury? mr. buffet seemed to

Bank Secrecy Act violations;
Money laundering for drug cartels;
Violations of sanction orders against Cuba, Iran, Sudan, and former Liberian strongman Charles Taylor;
Violations related to the Vatican Bank scandal (get on this, Pope Francis!);
Violations of the Commodities Exchange Act;
Failure to segregate customer funds (including one CFTC case where the bank failed to segregate $725 million of its own money from a $9.6 billion account) in the US and UK;
Knowingly executing fictitious trades where the customer, with full knowledge of the bank, was on both sides of the deal;
Various SEC enforcement actions for misrepresentations of CDOs and mortgage-backed securities;
The AG settlement on foreclosure fraud;
The OCC settlement on foreclosure fraud;
Violations of the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act;
Illegal flood insurance commissions;
Fraudulent sale of unregistered securities;
Auto-finance ripoffs;
Illegal increases of overdraft penalties;
Violations of federal ERISA laws as well as those of the state of New York;
Municipal bond market manipulations and acts of bid-rigging, including violations of the Sherman Anti-Trust Act;
Filing of unverified affidavits for credit card debt collections (“as a result of internal control failures that sound eerily similar to the industry’s mortgage servicing failures and foreclosure abuses”);
Energy market manipulation that triggered FERC lawsuits;
“Artificial market making” at Japanese affiliates;
Shifting trading losses on a currency trade to a customer account;
Fraudulent sales of derivatives to the city of Milan, Italy;
Obstruction of justice (including refusing the release of documents in the Bernie Madoff case as well as the case of Peregrine Financial).
Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/05/mirabile-dictu-jp-morgan-finally-on-regulatory-hot-seat-for-widespread-control-failures-and-alleged-lying-by-blythe-masters-under-oath.html#33QHLuaK7lK61tlo.99

#151 AndrewAB on 05.06.13 at 4:42 pm

What caught my attention about the change at CMHC was this:

“In 2012, CMHC insured $66-billion in loans for 386,222 units, below its plan of $94.5-billion and 550,335 units.”

Isn’t that about 33% off of CMHC’s projected insurance activity? I would take that as a dramatic slowdown in Canadian real estate activity.

As does the CMHC:

“This variance was largely due to lower portfolio insurance volumes but also due to general economic and housing market conditions. Successive changes to the rules governing insured mortgages have also reduced the size of the high-ratio homeowner market,” she said.”

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/05/06/cmhc-ceo-karen-kinsley-stepping-down-after-25-years/

#152 South Showa on 05.06.13 at 4:48 pm

Please don’t relocate to the South Shore – we don’t want our SFH prices impacted by Nova Scotia wannabes, driving their cute convertibles.

And we don’t want to have to make reservations at our fine dining establishments.

What’s that you say…there are no fine dining establishments? Better not tell Fleur de Sel.

Shhhhh. — Garth

#153 Condo Minion on 05.06.13 at 5:23 pm

Just heard “Sue Pigg” on AM radio 1010 in Toronto talking with Seamus OReagan.

Seamus: “As a homeowner Sue, thank you for that good news – we really appreciate it!”

This, after Sue Pigg said no big worries about prices, condos are gently landing lower, lots and lots of renters for those investments, so don’t worry.

Minutes later Kevin O’Leary came on and agreed wholeheartedly with Sue Pigg.

#154 Craig on 05.06.13 at 5:42 pm

As long as rates stay low, house prices will be fine. Maybe a pullback but nothing I’d worry about.

I’d be ten times more worried about the equity markets than house prices….that is the “house” of cards.

I’ll be on the sidelines at the end of Sept.

#155 Smoking Man on 05.06.13 at 6:13 pm

#146 Sebee on 05.06.13 at 4:20 pm#61

Smoking ManGeez…95…sounds like a strong gene pool. Don’t test the limits of the smoking and the drinking and we’ll all get to enjoy your commentary for decades to come. You can call yourself Clean Living, Man!
………….

One think about an on line identity and character is, in real life, I could be the clean living man…

But that would be just boaring

#156 Whitey on 05.06.13 at 6:25 pm

#117…does it really take people 1 hour to read Garth’s daily blog? Even if you read every comment, 1 hour? Come on!

#157 Tom Vu on 05.06.13 at 6:25 pm

That (winter boredom) is the dumbest comment yet. — Garth

============================

Garth has handed out Gold medal !

PS Who has silver and bronze?

#158 Tom Vu on 05.06.13 at 6:36 pm

Also:

I tink land masses aka” Island Provinces” like PEI and Nova Scotia not connected to the Mainland should be sold off at garage sale ….maybe given away or even pay someone to take em.

Nuisance to Gov’t accountants (though will miss Newfie jokes and funny Maritime accents)

#159 TurnerNation on 05.06.13 at 6:37 pm

I hope today’s weblog entry is not covertly a puff piece for the local Realty board :-)
Don’t buy a Pigg in a poke.

Got this in my inbox today:

http://enroute.aircanada.com/en/articles/a-taste-of-nova-scotia-s-south-shore

A Taste of Nova Scotia’s South Shore

Salt flies when we gather four of Atlantic Canada’s best chefs for a seafood dinner.

Apr 25, 2013 · By Chris Johns | Photos by Lorne Bridgman and/et Virginia Macdonald

Just past Lunenburg, the GPS finally packs it in. We’d been warned by our host: The directions he’d sketched out called to mind a 
treasure map, with ominous notations such as “Ghost Valley” and “Pavement ends here.” My eagle-eyed navigator finally spots a tiny, handwritten sign showing the way to Shobac, an architectural showcase on a remote stretch of Nova Scotia’s southern coast.

#160 happy renter on 05.06.13 at 6:49 pm

To all retirees on a fixed income who want to save money and escape the cold winters here’s what to do.I met a smart guy from Quebec ,he bought a trailer and parked it in campground by a lake in Quebec.$275 including electricity and wi fi for a month.Then stays in Puerto Vallarta for under $1200 a month for the winter.He’s single and lives comfortable.Even on a small pension its do able

#161 espressobob on 05.06.13 at 6:51 pm

#152 Condo Minion

Good comment. It seems Kevin is in the mortgage business if ya know what I mean.
http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/11/kevin-oleary-on-oleary-mortgages.html

Its funny how O’leary contradicts himself endlesly when it suits him. And no I won’t get started on his mutual funds!

#162 jess on 05.06.13 at 7:51 pm

sweet

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/04/this-accounting-tweak-by-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-will-mean-60-billion-for-the-u-s-government/

#163 aggie on 05.07.13 at 12:26 am

In March I became a renter of a beautiful ‘illegal’ suite on a magically beautiful property, albeit somewhat overgrown and neglected, in the heart of Bby yet in the wilds of its verdant south-slope nature.

A dear, fit, active landlord with the most lovable big pooch living in the main house, and I above the garage with my own entrance on the opposite side to his. Plenty of privacy and yet not alone. Rather perfect.

3 weeks later, my landlord’s heart stops beating.

In one month flat, the daughters had cleared out the house and sold it to the next-door neighbour. He borrowed against his own property to scratch together the down payment and is now my new landlord. The original asking price was to be 1 mil+, all I know is he got it ‘as is’ for ‘well’ under that, because he was a friend of the father.

He and his wife (both working; grandparents babysitting) hadn’t planned on buying another property, but because this was right next door and they felt they were being offered a deal, and because they further saved by not using a realtor (departed landlord had been a realtor; his next of kin knew how to proceed), I think it felt to them like a good investment, whether as a home for the parents/in-laws when the day comes that they retire, or to eventually develop something ‘lucrative’ on the two large side-by-side lots. In paradise. Really.

Meanwhile, they’re hoping to get at least 2500 rent for what truly is a lovely, bright large house, built over 40 years ago.

The landlord is a good, ethical person; I have no qualms about him, just concern that this wasn’t the best move for him to make. He and his extended family are working like crazy to clean up the landscape, and they’re making amazing progress. House is being rewired next week, then inspected — that’ll cost a pretty penny, I’m sure.

Much to be done, to get it rent-ready asap.

This truly is a unique location, so maybe that will save his skin in the long run. I hope so.