Silent spring

crotch

Hannah fluffs for a living. Professionally it’s called ‘staging,’ but what she really does is make your house look like people wrapped in plastic live there who never use the bathroom, or eat. She doesn’t just get it cleaned. She transforms. If walls need to be quickly painted and toned, done. If your furniture is crap, it’s history. If there’s an open house planned, it’ll be impeccable, replete with flowers, casually-opened cookbooks and a $300 bottle of wine on the counter.

“I’ve had to completely empty some places,” she says. “Just shove everything in storage, send the family away and rescue the house.” She works with two assistants and an iPhone full of suppliers, including a furniture rental company heavy on fashion-forward sofas.

Hannah’s not cheap, of course. Two bedroom suites for a month and her attention for two hours costs about two grand. But in real estate hothouse like mid-town Toronto, where shoppers expect $1.8 million houses to be zine-ready, it’s the deal’s secret sauce.

Last spring you couldn’t even book her unless you decided in January you were selling in April. These days she’s available for a consultation in about a day, and a fluffing within a week. “Massive slowdown” she says. “It’s hard to believe.”

Indeed. Toronto sales are off 20% from last year, according to the realtors’ numbers. Street evidence suggests whatever the decline, it’s getting worse. Homeowners thinking of listing are recoiling on news of scant interest and softening prices. Most buyers are waiting for the big correction. And no more mortgage insurance on million-plus houses has hollowed the market, while jobs are starting to erase.

By the way, Hannah and her husband sold their home in a demand hood last year. They now rent a spacious condo high above the tree canopies. “Thank God,” she says softly.

Eight blocks from their building is a store which caters to moving. Crisp brown boxes, rolls of bubble pack, reams of paper, cardboard wardrobes, packing tape, neoprene floor runners, furniture quilts, rentable plastic containers, moving booties, forearm forklifts and mattress bags.

On the first Friday afternoon in April, the full flower of the spring real estate market, the place was empty. Jimmy was on cash, when he wasn’t offering a free cappuccino, espresso or latte. In mere minutes he was lamenting business. “Down 30 per cent, and falling. But at least I hear it’s not as bad as in, you know, Vancouver and Victoria.”

Compared to a year ago? “There were five of us in here on a shift,” he says. “Now, just two. It’s scary. The change in mortgages has really hit us hard, and it looks like buyers are all just waiting for prices to go down. Which I guess they will.”

Of course, this is anecdotal evidence of a market in distress. But these are folks whose entire livelihoods depend on people selling houses. They’re the canaries in the real estate coal mine, whose paycheques reflect market vicissitudes faster and more accurately than any manufactured realtor Frankenumber. Their story is being retold by the out-of-work movers who descend like ravenous locusts on any home where a SOLD sign sprouts.

Officially, GTA’s housing market is one of tumbling sales and static prices. The media is still carrying stories about bidding wars and frustrated buyers paying $900,000 for $750,000 homes. But that is the flotsam left floating on still waters. The economic reality is that fewer deals, month after month, lead inevitably to price reductions, lost equity and recent buyers left underwater.

This week the evidence seems overwhelming. Despite it being Spring, and with some of the lowest five-year mortgage rates in history, sales are cascading lower in Vancouver, Victoria and Toronto. Transactions in Ottawa last month were off 16%, and condo prices have turned negative for the year. In Montreal, same story – condo values retreating while SFH sales are down 15%. In Halifax volumes are running 28% below year-ago levels. Even Calgary, now afflicted by falling oil prices and shutdowns in the tar sands, sales are trailing 2012 numbers.

In BC, prices are lower 8% on average. In Ottawa and Montreal, up 1% over 2012. In Toronto, it’s a 3% gain over last Spring. As I always point out, all real estate is local. And big markets like the GTA are comprised of dozens of micro-markets, each with their own supply-demand dynamic.

But there’s no fighting the trend. Housing as an asset class has run its course, inflated to the point of ugly obesity by an endless diet of addictive cheap debt. All prices will be in decline as the year moves ahead. The buyers will triumph.

And we will live to fluff another day.

CHART

 – Saskatoon Housing Bubble

280 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 04.05.13 at 8:56 pm

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#2 City that smells like it sounds on 04.05.13 at 8:58 pm

FURRRRRRRRRRRRRRSTT!!!!!!!!!!! Oh baby!!!

#3 Dr.Dr. on 04.05.13 at 8:59 pm

How about what the future is going to hold for all those people with hugh mortgages that will come up for renewal in 5 years.

#4 Canoli on 04.05.13 at 9:04 pm

Woohoo first

#5 Chopper on 04.05.13 at 9:07 pm

The economy is in a downward trend no doubting that. I own a small business in Ontario and sales this year is terrible it has been declining for the past 3 years and getting worst every year. People simply have no money to spend on non-essentials, I see it everyday families struggling to make ends meet.

More job losses and many more to come, bad news about the economy and still the greater fools rush in over their heads to own a house because the Realturds tell them it is always a good time to buy.

To those on the fence waiting and watching, by this time next year I say will be a good time to buy. The slide is only just beginning it will get worst.

#6 Mike Leblond on 04.05.13 at 9:11 pm

In Ottawa, there are still some sales near downtown, but in the suburbs, sales are generally dead. They have been gradually slowing down for the past two years and now many houses have been sitting on the market for one, two, even a few for three years, without selling. Some owners take their homes off the market for a few months only to put them back on sale, and still no takers. Other have been reducing their prices, but still no serious interest. The reason is simple: with 70% home ownership and Canadians overburdened with debt, there is generally not many people left that can buy houses over 500k.

#7 Lily Joe on 04.05.13 at 9:12 pm

That is a huge difference between income and the price of a house!

#8 Sebee on 04.05.13 at 9:13 pm

Let us pray for the 55k full timers who no longer have a job.

#9 Tom Vu on 04.05.13 at 9:14 pm

What is difference between Crotching and Crocheting..maybe even Croating?

#10 patience on 04.05.13 at 9:17 pm

So , when is the big correction? So far anything real estate is out of reach for the prices just keep going up. Sometimes I think I live in a crazy world and it’s only me who doesn’t see the richness around me, for almost al the people I meet are millionares on paper and they show off ’cause they got a big house and you’re just a sucker, a poor renter..
I guess I have to set my sights on other places to live there’s gotta be something better than here.

#11 Joe on 04.05.13 at 9:18 pm

What happens to housing prices when inflation kicks in?

#12 Kessel on 04.05.13 at 9:20 pm

Garth I hope you’re right. My marriage depends on it.

#13 Rob on 04.05.13 at 9:24 pm

#5 Chopper
Actually a good time to buy is not next year.
A better time to buy will be a few years from now.
Best time to buy ideally is when RE has bottomed (10 yrs maybe )
Wise time to buy will be after the bottom and a confirmation of a upwards trend.
Think RE as a stock.

#14 Alyce in Wonderland on 04.05.13 at 9:27 pm

Looking at the job losses numbers for March: 89 k jobs lost, Holly Macaroni, 32 k ‘self’ employed.

Yep, the thing is hitting the fan.
We either start solid money printing or go in outright depression with the current commodity prices and debt.

Bigger top, harder fall. Thank you F for you ‘legacy’

#15 Old Man on 04.05.13 at 9:28 pm

The problem is clear, as the increase in wages or cashflow cannot sustain the expense of this bubble going forward to pay the bills. The condo stuff in the core in Toronto will be a train crash, as forget the mortgage payments as the killer in this equation is the insane condo fees payable. I say when this all hits the fan down by 50%.

#16 Big English on 04.05.13 at 9:30 pm

I’m with ‘Kessel’, wife is pressuring to buy, while I insist we rent and wait. Realtor has her ear, I read you blog, it’s a Cold War and tensions are building.

In Garth we trust

#17 Chirag on 04.05.13 at 9:30 pm

Garth,
I understand sales are 10-20pct lower than last year, but have sales not been well above the long term average the last 5 years? And so a reduction in sales is just reversion to a longer term mean?

And prices will follow. — Garth

#18 AisA on 04.05.13 at 9:31 pm

Zo… Ven zee blew line krozes zee red line, it’z tyme to zink avowt biyeeng.

Zimple.

#19 Mister Obvious on 04.05.13 at 9:31 pm

Why is it considered cool to ‘fluff’ a house yet suspicion is aroused when the same thing is done with an equity?

#20 Alyce in Wonderland on 04.05.13 at 9:31 pm

#10 patience

Sometimes I think I live in a crazy world and it’s only me who doesn’t see the richness around me, for almost al the people I meet are millionares on paper and they show off ’cause they got a big house and you’re just a sucker, a poor renter..
————————————
You should definitely look to move to a more normal place. Where at least it does not snow on April 5th.

As for the craziness it is from the fluoride in the water.

#21 John Palando on 04.05.13 at 9:32 pm

No slowdown in Edmonton, listings are way down, prices up 8% YOY” Sales are only slightly down (1.2%) from last year. There are bidding wars for houses prices betwwen 350 – 400 K range, cant find any quality homes.

John

#22 DaleFromCalgary on 04.05.13 at 9:32 pm

It’s not the falling oil prices that are hurting Calgary; it’s the outsourcing and upgrader cancellations. The price of oil has actually been steady for a couple of years between $85 and $95. My conventional wells can make money down to $20 and older oilsands projects can survive on $50 if they had to.

What most Cowtowners don’t understand is the extent to which design work and fabrication has been outsourced. The people who design the big projects are in Texas and India. Those who build the big iron are in China or Germany. There isn’t any flood of well-paid engineers buying houses in remote Calgary suburbs like Cranston or Kincora.

One condo tower project by the university has dropped its prices to the high $200,000. Those who lined up to buy units last year at high $300,000 definitely have buyer’s remorse. It isn’t just residential; there is a downtown condo office tower at 6 Street SW and 6 Avenue that has posted a vacant lot for two years now as “coming soon”.

#23 JSS on 04.05.13 at 9:39 pm

# 17 DaleFromCalgary on 04.05.13 at 9:32 pm

“There isn’t any flood of well-paid engineers buying houses in remote Calgary suburbs like Cranston or Kincora”

Then who’s buying these homes in Calgary?

#24 shane on 04.05.13 at 9:42 pm

garth, by that chart looks to me the prices should come down about 40%.

#25 Alyce in Wonderland on 04.05.13 at 9:45 pm

The jobs are not coming back and we better go back to the land fast.

#26 Need Sleep on 04.05.13 at 9:50 pm

Waiting for the official Winnipeg stats to come out and rumours are the drop in volume from March 2012 to 2013 is huge.

Went to look at a house today that has been sitting on the market for 5.5 months. South Winnipeg… buyer bought at $122k in 2003 and was trying to sell for $324k in 2012. Down to $299k and it is not going to sell. While in this house, the realtor told me that the market is really going up! I told her that I watch stats closely and I’m waiting for March stats but I didn’t get into it with her.

Thankfully my husband, as tired as he is of renting, agreed with me that the house was crap.

#27 Luke Siragusa on 04.05.13 at 9:50 pm

@ #12 Kessel

If your marriage depends on what someone else says it’s already over.

#28 None on 04.05.13 at 9:51 pm

I think you sometimes over emphasize that markets are not related when in fact they are. If they really were unrelated we wouldn’t have seen such a run-up in all market.

I agree it’s not a perfect correlation but I think it’s unfair to discount the obvious correlation between markets (as they all ramped up due to the same causes).

#29 Tom Vu on 04.05.13 at 9:52 pm

Smoking Old Man:

Please take meds and then regale us with tales of WTF you did tonite.

#30 Old Man on 04.05.13 at 9:54 pm

The prices in Toronto will depend upon the housing type and area, as all will not fall in the same way, so one cannot paint with a brush with any degree of exactness. Some may take a modest hit of 15% at the most while others more, and there will be gentle meltdown over the years in some areas, and a rapid decline in others.

#31 Paully on 04.05.13 at 9:58 pm

The gain in the Toronto average does not necessarily reflect a gain in the prices. The fallout in the low end of the condo market volume means that there are fewer low-priced condo sales to temper the market average, and as a result, the “average” price can appear to rise.

Is there a helpful Realtor out there who can dig up some specific cases where a house sold in 2012 and has just recently resold this year? There has to be some, and they will show more accurately where the price movement is going, since it is a straight comparison. 255 Connaught was one. I see that 336 Hollywood is up for sale again, and it sold last year. Once it resells, there will be a story to be told. That is but two examples that I have seen while just walking around.

Anyone know anymore year over year resold examples?

#32 Canadian Watchdog on 04.05.13 at 9:58 pm

Date Detached Semi-Detached Condo
Aug-12 -$120,263,390 -$37,506,630 -$172,491,288
Sep-12 -$339,393,696 -$42,590,550 -$153,633,074
Oct-12 -$25,103,692 -$10,631,367 -$118,164,650
Nov-12 -$322,780,680 -$34,745,693 -$181,048,143
Dec-12 -$138,228,533 -$44,968,002 -$123,820,382
Jan-13 $22,191,084 $3,605,440 -$27,193,208
Feb-13 -$383,048,688 -$49,463,888 -$140,590,330
Mar-13 -$528,062,134 -$68,361,907 -$140,878,318

#33 Frizzzz on 04.05.13 at 9:58 pm

So how are the Kia deakerships doing?

#34 gus on 04.05.13 at 10:00 pm

Totally agree with patience #10. All the 70% homeowners won the lottery and the renters are losers. Realturds built this circus and created this house casino. Economy should run on realty not on steroids.

#35 Scott in Gibsons on 04.05.13 at 10:04 pm

A suggestion for those whose spouses are eager to buy; do it on paper. Sit down with him or her and put down on paper all the expenses of owning the home they have their eye on. This number will be much higher than you’re paying for housing now. Don’t forget to add a few hundred a month for maintenance and a few hundred more for things like yard expenses, furniture, window coverings and all the things homeowners buy but renters don’t. The more realistic you are the higher the monthly nut grows.

Ask your spouse to work with you to come up with this amount every month making whatever sacrifices are neccesary. Use part of the money to cover existing expenses and bank the rest, invest in Garth’s recommendations.

Doing this will buy you a little time and make it look like your’re trying, force you to live the reality of the monthly cost of ownership, and build a down payment for your eventual purchase. Every month that goes by with RE prices falling and your savings growing puts you in better shape.

#36 Retired WI Boomer on 04.05.13 at 10:05 pm

You are about to enter the ‘slow down zone.’ In the United Snakes it’s called a “recession” because, we do not have a measurement for a depression.

To me, it is simple. When my neighbor is out of work, it is a “rescission” when I am out of work it is a “depression.”

So, look at your income adequacy, stability, and expenses to figure out the difference.

Smart people will work harder to pay off smaller debts, no making new ones until the overall economy regains stability.

Who the hell “needs” to buy a house to buy at the market top? Ditto for stocks, bonds, gold and cars.

There still may be time to sell that millstone before you are drowning in house debt in an underwater market. They are saying listings are down-beat the June Rush!!!

To the boys who “need” a house for the wife…consider the costs of changing wife versus the costs of home buying.

Life should be spent with a partner, not a nagging bag!

#37 steve p on 04.05.13 at 10:07 pm

my company imports a product and sells to stores
i had orders two months ago from stores and I have called lately to see if they needed more product, they told me no they did not need anything and as a matter of fact they had barely sold any of the product they purchased from me two months ago. i go to visit customers and nobody is doing anything, basically just sweeping the floor

#38 Canadian Watchdog on 04.05.13 at 10:09 pm

This is YoY net change in sales dollar volume for GTA.

Date Detached Semi-Detached Condo

Aug-12 -$120,263,390 -$37,506,630 -$172,491,288
Sep-12 -$339,393,696 -$42,590,550 -$153,633,074
Oct-12 -$25,103,692 -$10,631,367 -$118,164,650
Nov-12 -$322,780,680 -$34,745,693 -$181,048,143
Dec-12 -$138,228,533 -$44,968,002 -$123,820,382
Jan-13 $22,191,084 $3,605,440 -$27,193,208
Feb-13 -$383,048,688 -$49,463,888 -$140,590,330
Mar-13 -$528,062,134 -$68,361,907 -$140,878,318

Many get confused looking at percentage changes because what really matters is the amount of dollars changing. Last month, detached homes lost just over half a billion dollars of equity compared to last year, while condos shed $140MM y/y, which means, detached homes contracted 3.7x more then condos.

I said it before and I’ll say it again: all the leverage in terms of dollars borrowed is in detached homes, not condos.

#39 Arse on 04.05.13 at 10:11 pm

I am not gay, and proud of it!

#40 Alyce in Wonderland on 04.05.13 at 10:11 pm

34 gus Totally agree with patience #10. All the 70% homeowners won the lottery and the renters are losers. Realturds built this circus and created this house casino. Economy should run on realty not on steroids.
————————————–
Well at least we will have the pleasure to pay for the fallout of CMHC. Is this not something? I am personally thrilled.

#41 Timing is Everything on 04.05.13 at 10:18 pm

Is that ‘average weekly wage’ per household or person?

#42 Al Bundy on 04.05.13 at 10:18 pm

A dollar saved is a $1.30 earned.

As much as everyone is talking about investments and batman/cameltoes, there is not much talk of reducing recurring expenses. Let’s get the party started!

I cancelled cable tv years ago, put up an HDTV antenna and get about 20 channels. It’s fine for live tv, like news, but if you want the ULTIMATE tv experience, hook it up to a computer (new or old) with a computer remote control running XBMC and Sickbeard – both crowd-coded freeware. Too lazy to read up on it? Fine, just do a quick youtube search and see what you might be missing. Any show imaginable!

Cancelled bell phone line, switched to $4 a month voip.

Have a decent internet connection, 300 gigs/month for 48$.

So monthly savings:
$80 from cable tv
$35 from phone line

Total yearly savings:
~$1400

Equal to about $1800 pay increase assuming tax rate of about 30%

Not too shabby…

#43 Tkid on 04.05.13 at 10:20 pm

#12 & 16, find a home at least $200,000 more than the old one with all the shiny and better access to where you and she work. Then tell her you will be buying it 4 yrs from now. You will have a bigger downpayment, smaller mtg, able to take nicer vacations, etc.

#44 Anon on 04.05.13 at 10:29 pm

@#21 John Palando on 04.05.13 at 9:32 pm

No slowdown in Edmonton, listings are way down, prices up 8% YOY” Sales are only slightly down (1.2%) from last year. There are bidding wars for houses prices betwwen 350 – 400 K range, cant find any quality homes.

——————————————————–

Where do you get your information from John? Sometimes commenter Brian Ripley runs a site called “Canadian Housing Price Charts” (chpc.biz) and his monthly scorecard for Edmonton shows different data:

YOY Prices: You said up 8%, he says up 4.3% (-3.7% difference)
YOY Sales: You said sales down 1.2%, he says down 6.4%. (4.2% Difference)

The only thing you agreed on is listings, he has -14.9% and you have ‘way down’.

He uses the Edmonton real estate board’s numbers to compile his charts. So who is wrong?

#45 Simple Reader on 04.05.13 at 10:29 pm

Garth, these comments sections of your blog are priceless. I guess any faithful reader will agree on that, and it´s obvious you do.

I encourage you to add a voting feature on the comments. It will be a better way to profit from the comments section. Readers will vote and then they anybody will easily identify good/constructive/savvy/clever comments and ignore useless information. (and if you want to have fun, you can have two different votes, Readers Votes and Garth Vote, you know for those metal heads and other species you dislike.

I know that’s not your priority, and it sounds maybe like an IT geek request, but I beg you to do it. Is anybody else with me on this?

There are many blog features and fancy things you can add; some will bring value to the information and the debate and some will give you headaches; some will be too complex (expensive probably) and useless but if there is one feature you must seriously consider to add is the Voting on Comments. That will be the best thing you can do for this blog in terms of technical improvements (I’m not talking about the real deal, which is the article itself. I’m just trying to increase its impact.)

Take a look on ZDNet, the reviews have Editor’s Rating (that’s all yours Garth) and User’s Rating (that’s ours). Other examples can be found in comments on TheGlobeAndMail website where you have upvoting and downvoting (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/canadian-dollar-plunges-as-jobless-rate-climbs-exports-sink/article10798689/comments/) (yeah, I know this is MSM, a sin, bad sample, shame on me…) or maybe you just need upvoting like StackOverflow (http://meta.stackoverflow.com/questions/17364/how-do-comment-voting-and-flagging-work )

I know this is your blog, but with all due respect allow me to ask this:

So, who votes for my request???

#46 Silent spring — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate | The Affluent Boomer™ on 04.05.13 at 10:30 pm

[…] Hannah fluffs for a living. Professionally it’s called ‘staging,’ but what she really does is make your house look like people wrapped in plastic live there who never use the bathroom, or eat. She doesn’t just get it cleaned. She transforms. If walls need to be quickly painted and toned, done. If your furniture is crap, it’s history. If there’s an open house planned, it’ll be impeccable, replete with flowers, casually-opened cookbooks and a $300 bottle of wine on the counter. Continue reading → […]

#47 Anon on 04.05.13 at 10:30 pm

* should have been 5.2% difference for YOY sales.

#48 LJ on 04.05.13 at 10:31 pm

#23 JSS – Then who’s buying these homes in Calgary?

Haven’t you noticed all the BC plates around recently?

#49 Timing is Everything on 04.05.13 at 10:32 pm

Gov stats…

Work – Weekly Earnings

‘Average weekly earnings in Canada have increased slightly over recent years, from $759 in 1997 to $840 in 2011, after adjusting for inflation.’

http://tinyurl.com/bux3ho2

#50 JSS on 04.05.13 at 10:32 pm

#39Arse on 04.05.13 at 10:11 pm

I am not gay, and proud of it!

————-

I am also not gay. I am also proud of it.

This not an ungay blog. What a minute… — Garth

#51 The Man From Nantucket on 04.05.13 at 10:32 pm

Great post at #35!

force yourself to be ‘house poor’, and simultaneously save for a house in case you decide you can make it work.

Certainly would have you better prepared than the average household that spent their entire ridiculous pre-approval on the first thing that met their ‘exacting standards’.

#52 benchwarmer on 04.05.13 at 10:39 pm

#23 JSS Then who’s buying these homes in Calgary?

In the older communities it’s still mostly flippers buying these places up. As for new builds hardly anybody.
Get out from behind your computer and go for a drive, talk to some of the trades guys and you’ll see and hear a different story than you are being told on the news.

#53 Chickenlittle on 04.05.13 at 10:41 pm

“Homeowners thinking of listing are recoiling on news of scant interest and softening prices.”

That “news” is you, Garth. Does that not make you proud? You could collapse an entire deck of cards all by yourself.

Way to go! (I am not being sarcastic!)

#12 Kessel:

Ask your wife to read Garths post called “Royal Jelly”. It was posted in March. If that one doesn’t work, nothing will.

As a wife myself, I understand the pressure that we can put on our spouses. Aren’t we fun?

#54 Old Man on 04.05.13 at 10:42 pm

#37 steve p – today is Friday and messed up for as this is a big day for shopping so went out at 10:30 AM to buy a few things, and nobody was buying product, so got a pass; no nightmare for me. People do not have the money, and during the week there is nobody in the stores at all.

#55 Tim on 04.05.13 at 10:48 pm

It would be interesting to estimate the percentage of jobs directly/ indirectly related to real estate in Vancouver. There is no major industry here, very few large companies, more head offices in Toronto, Montreal, Calgary, and probably Ottawa. Despite the lack of large companies and jobs, there seems to be no shortage of condos. I don’t know what many of these people here do for a living.

#56 Saskatoon-Living on 04.05.13 at 10:51 pm

It’s so different in SK:

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/business/Moderate+growth+forecast+2013/8198591/story.html

#57 Money talks on 04.05.13 at 10:53 pm

@ #45 Simple Reader – I was just thinking the same thing, even a “thumbs up/down” would be fun :)

Another fantasy I have down the road is a big old blog dog family dinner , Smokin Man included! Some of you have become household names with hubby and I, just wouldn’t be the same without you.

This comment section is like a secret AA meeting spot for those of us surrounded by housaholics still in denial…

#58 Ex-Cowtown on 04.05.13 at 10:55 pm

#23 JSS on 04.05.13 at 9:39 pm
# 17 DaleFromCalgary on 04.05.13 at 9:32 pm

“There isn’t any flood of well-paid engineers buying houses in remote Calgary suburbs like Cranston or Kincora”

Then who’s buying these homes in Calgary?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

People who don’t read this blog.

#59 Shawn on 04.05.13 at 10:58 pm

LOW INTEREST RATES EXPLAIN HIGH HOUSE PRICES

Shane at 24 said:

garth, by that chart looks to me the prices should come down about 40%.

******************************************

Sure, just as soon as mortgage rates return to their 1986 level of about 12% or more.

There may be a house price decline but as Garth has repeatedly said it will NOT average anything close to 40% for Canada as a whole (but could hit 40% in certain locales)

#60 observer on 04.05.13 at 11:03 pm

Another voting who is the must trustworthy on the Vancouver market this time. Garth is not there by Whisper from the Rain Forest is there and good old Cameron Muir has his family voting for him all 8 people.

http://blog.buzzbuzzhome.com/2013/04/most-trustworthy-expert-vancouve-real-estate-market.html

#61 Shawn on 04.05.13 at 11:08 pm

SIMPLE READER IS RIGHT

SIMPLE Reader at 30

said:

I encourage you to add a voting feature on the comments.

and

There are many blog features and fancy things you can add…

and

Take a look on ZDNet, the reviews have Editor’s Rating

**************************************

Dude, your suggestions are well intended but entirely misplaced. This blog is addictive and is easily the most popular real estate blog and perhaps the most popular blog of any kind in this country. Ya don’t mess with this kind of success.

Funny if Garth worked for a boss or a media company they would be telling him to add all kinds of crap and his blog would suffer tremendously.

Garth needs no help in how to run this blog.

And I am not saying that JUST to curry favor.

#62 Blacksheep on 04.05.13 at 11:08 pm

“Actually I am saddened a little so many people feel suspicious, mistrustful, detached. Life will be harder for them. — Garth”
—————————————————-
It’s Friday Garth, don’t be sad. Lets turn that frown upside down : )

What you mistook for:

Suspicious, is actually – Critically thinking
Mistrustful, is actually -Aware
Detached, is actually – Independent

See…What you really have is a: Critically thinking, Aware, Independent of group People!

Ounce one adopts the correct perspective, The world
is your oyster!!!!

#63 Gladiator on 04.05.13 at 11:11 pm

I’m as proud as Arse, actually. Very, very proud to stick it where it belongs.

As for Simple Reader’s suggestion, I’m all for it, although I will still read comments of my favorite commenters, and yes, SM is one of them. As krezzy as the guy sounds, he has a lot of good stuff in his posts. I love Coho’s posts and miss Cato’s and The Original Dave’s. I learned a lot from Garth and fellow dawgs, some of the comments went into the collection that I build for my kids. So I am hooked to this blog AND its comments and hardly imagine a day without stopping by.

Kids, did you say? There are more of you? — Garth

#64 Smoking Man's Old Man on 04.05.13 at 11:14 pm

Wow, 54 comments so far and most are sane posts, wonder how long that’s going to last….

#65 The Prophet Elijah on 04.05.13 at 11:17 pm

Is anyone else seeing a lot more house pumping on facebook. Real estate agents proclaiming how robust the market is and letting everyone know when they get a sale? Kinda the same as paying people to stand in line for condos.

#66 Tony on 04.05.13 at 11:18 pm

Re: #21 John Palando on 04.05.13 at 9:32 pm

In a real city in a real province houses sell in less than a week on average not in 50 plus days. 50 plus days are depression era figures. Edmonton will always be a buyers market.

#67 Roy on 04.05.13 at 11:30 pm

Worst jobs report in 4 years blowing what little confidence is left out of the spring housing market.

All the jobs lost were in the 25 to 54 age group, the prime buyers of housing. Not exactly a situation that encourages a healthy housing market, but actually reinforces how high housing prices are dragging the economy down.

Canada GDP 1.6% this year according to F, optimistic? The decade of stagnation begins according to Scotiabank… quite laughable, there is no way this can end well.

The gov’t and BoC have already played its cards to avert economic troubles, despite the fact they said banks were rock solid. Nearly 5 wasted years, but yes they did succeed in blowing the national housing and household debt bubbles a lot bigger…. so long and thanks Carney…

In 2008 the drunken sailor party was over but like losers who didn’t know when to go home countries like Canada, Britain, and Australia stayed and continued to binge their faces off on debt. This will be a memorable hangover…

#68 Saskiboy on 04.05.13 at 11:31 pm

Wheat Kings and Pretty Things lets wait and see…Art matters most. More than harleys. Hayden. He rocks. Still. A beautiful man. Gord. The creative class. The Class that matters.

#69 Naga on 04.05.13 at 11:40 pm

It is different in Canada – with consumer debt @ 163% and growing and bank failures risks…..I guess those with debts do not have to worry about government reaching into their savings to save the banks – LOL

But I agree CDN banks not at risk of failure but smart Canadians are those that use leverage (debt financing) intellingently to improve their financial status – its called capitalism. Not just for real easte but also to finance business ventures and anything else that heps magnify returns. Smart individuals using oldest banking trick (using other people money for own advantage) in the book…..the rest you fill in the story….as most are typical bloggers on this site.

#70 Jane24 on 04.05.13 at 11:41 pm

Speaking on behalf of most of my own Canadian family – no one has any money now. These are regular professional middle-class people but the housing costs and general cost of living in Canada takes everything they have.

Two sky high Canadian costs that I don’t understand is communications and insurance.

I have Virgin media here in England and my basic TV cable package is $8 a month for 40 channels plus my BBC contribution of $225 a year. My web connection which I know nothing about but is apparently glass fibre and the fastest in the world is $25 a month. My family in Ontario pay about $300 a month for house communications. How is it possible to be so expensive?

Canada is a huge country with massive roads but the car insurance is also incredibly high. Here with tiny roads I pay $344 a year to insure my Ford Focus for two people for all uses including commuting 2 hours a day for hubby and EU use. My brothers pay thousands of $ to insure their cars and yet we are all in our 50’s with clean licences. Again how is this possible?

It is not just high house prices in Canada that is keeping folk out of the stores. It seems to be high everything.

#71 Blacksheep on 04.05.13 at 11:42 pm

Only second glass of Cab. when smart assedness, bad Speeling and old English word-order occurs. No wonder Smoking man gets d-leated so much.

#72 Tom Vu on 04.05.13 at 11:52 pm

#50 JSS on 04.05.13 at 10:32 pm

#39Arse on 04.05.13 at 10:11 pm

I am not gay, and proud of it!

————-

I am also not gay. I am also proud of it.

This not an ungay blog. What a minute… — Garth

===================================

Garth do double negative

Like voting NDP – Liberal, ……now that’s gay !!!!

#73 HAWK on 04.05.13 at 11:53 pm

#70 Jane24 on 04.05.13 at 11:41 pm

================

Where in England do you live? London is far more expensive than Toronto, and I know that as I have been to live with my Aunt over there several times. That said Toronto is still very expensive to live in.

As far as communications go, well it’s because the communication companies here are an oligopoly and a few major players control the market.

As far as car insurance goes, it’s again mandated by law and the insurance companies rip off all the good drivers forcing them to subsidize bad ones.

#74 Burnt Norton on 04.06.13 at 12:00 am

#12 Kessel on 04.05.13 at 9:20 pm

#16 Big English on 04.05.13 at 9:30 pm

Condolences, gents.

Try this one out:

Get the estimated value of your current rental. Go on MLS.ca and, instead of filtering the value of properties up to the max mortgage the bank / broker says you qualify for, filter values from the value of your current rental down to around half that value.

Point out to your sweetie how lucky you are to not live in such sketchy neighborhoods, with so few small rooms, without any cars on blocks out in the front yards.

Then find a rent vs buy spreadsheet online. It’s a no-brainer in most Canadian markets right now.

Then figure out how much you are saving by renting vs buying and take some of that and book a nice vacation somewhere, maybe get a purse with one of those colourful silk things tired to it, or some shoes.

If that doesn’t work, then it’s clearly a control issue. Even then, the proverbial ball and chain need not necessarily entail financial suicide, although I guess it would be pick your poison, death by divorce or death by house.

May the force be with you.

#75 Coho on 04.06.13 at 12:05 am

#45,

Bad idea.

There’s some big egos on this board combined with sock puppetry which will make the comments section more of a popularity contest than it already is. The sock puppets compliment AND put themselves down. It doesn’t matter which — either will do. It’s the exercise of directing attention to themselves that matters to them, which is a distraction away from serious dialogue about the issues, in my opinion.

#76 SHOOTER MCGAVIN on 04.06.13 at 12:07 am

DELETED

#77 Shrit4brawns on 04.06.13 at 12:11 am

Great post Garth.

I’m hearing from mortgage brokers in Vancouver – incomes appear to be down 60% or so from peak – loads of commission salesfolk who were earning $200k are now earning $80k, and screaming through their lines of credit. That cashflow negative ‘investment property(ies)’ is hanging like a weight around their necks. So are the private school fees, son’s power skating lessons, etc….the knock on impact is in motion.

Also, the venture index has cut many high flyers (promotors/officers and directors) in Van down at the knees. Hearing of missed mortgage payments – watch for foreclosures to scream higher in the coming months.

Inventory is climbing, but we have yet to cross the Rubicon on this – we need an increase in listings volumes, relative to sales, to scare the shit out of the great unwashed.

#78 Coho on 04.06.13 at 12:26 am

An example of sock puppetry is a poster claiming that another poster has become a household name. Does this sound realistic? And watch for the word “hubby’, which is another pointer that a sock puppet is at work.

How have some of these posters become so popular, particularly, when some of these are ones whose comments, I for one, regularly skip over? Learn to discern, people. Some are just on here to exercise their ego and entertain themselves. I’d imagine sock puppets would tend to suggest voting systems in order to build themselves up into something.

#79 800 RMK on 04.06.13 at 12:27 am

Dale from calgary #22 post: “my older wells make money at $20″. Maybe a few areas can do that, but in general I call bs, nothing drilled in the last 8 years makes money at $20 oil. Cap ex on fdc on a full cycle basis is $15 minimum, more like $25 to $30 last five years ona full cycle basis. Then there is op costs and royalties, and u sir are under water at $20 a barrell conventional.

#80 Brian Ripley on 04.06.13 at 12:55 am

Hi #22 DaleFromCalgary
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/04/05/silent-spring-2/#comment-234032

I read your post with great interest for the colour it provides on the outsourcing of the big money jobs and especially of your view of real estate at ground level.

I have updated my March data charts, and Earnings and Calgary Real Estate prices all seem to be booming.

Earnings: http://www.chpc.biz/earnings.html
Calgary: http://www.chpc.biz/calgary_chart.html

I added the TSX Energy Index plot to the Calgary housing chart and what stood out is the divergence between the Energy index (down) with housing (up) especially over the last 12 months.

I wonder how long that will continue. Cheers, BR

#81 A Nightmare on Bay Street on 04.06.13 at 1:26 am

Garth,

I happy you put your line : “Canada sink while USA is getting back, where jobs and business are gowing up” on ice.

Because its not.

#82 lookoutbelow on 04.06.13 at 1:54 am

Simply put, “The Buyers smell Blood”.

Patience, there is no rush, and as The Rolling Stones song goes: “Time is on my side, yes it is.”

#83 calgarytran on 04.06.13 at 1:55 am

http://www.aluraliving.ca/

The above 29-level condo project on 1st Street SE in downtown Calgary is 22 levels completed. Many units are still available. No long queue to buy.

How come the media gives a different picture?

#84 Humpty Dumpty on 04.06.13 at 2:00 am

Rabbi….

I need to spring this one on you..

Texas Also Wants Its Gold Back…

James Rickards discusses the history of gold in the U.S.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/texas-wants-its-gold-back-PhaK3QtWRBWcyOUqSBTdrA.html

#85 Luke Siragusa on 04.06.13 at 2:01 am

DELETED

#86 David McDonald on 04.06.13 at 2:56 am

Kessel and Big English share my problem but apparently have more backbone than I do. My only hope is delay,delay. Scott in Gibbons suggests a useful tactic which I will try when my wife starts to focus on a property. For now we are renting in Switzerland but by the fall I am afraid I will run out of wiggle room.

Jane24 raises a good point. Why is Canada so expensive? For everyday things prices are not much difference from Switzerland and that’s expensive. I suspect the the tar sands industry drives up our dollar so we are suffering from the Dutch disease (the Dutch economy tanked when profits from north sea gas drove up the Dutch gilder).

Part of the ongoing correction will probably be a further drop in the Canadian dollar. That will lower prices of everything including real estate at least as measured in US dollars.

#87 Joe on 04.06.13 at 3:42 am

How can the US be considered in a recovery mode when there are 90 million out of the work force returning to the unemployment levels of the 70’s?

Twelve million, not 90. — Garth

#88 Aussie Roy on 04.06.13 at 4:16 am

Aussie Update

Tropical dreamland – now on sale

Magnetic Island hits botttom of the market

TROPICAL paradise is selling for a pittance on a North Queensland island where beach pads are on offer for less than their building costs.

“I’ve been here for 12 years and prices haven’t been at these levels since 2003/2004,” Mr Dyson said.

“Especially for vacant land.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/realestate/selling/magnetic-island-hits-botttom-of-the-market/story-fndbofvw-1226605402283

Aussie mortgage market sucks

Australian homebuyer confidence fell to the lowest level since 2008 as concerns about job security outweighed historically low interest rates and improved affordability, according to Genworth Financial Inc. (GNW)

The bi-annual Genworth Homebuyer Confidence Index declined to 93.4 in March from 98.4 in September, the Richmond, Virginia- based insurer, which provides lenders’ mortgage insurance in Australia, said in an e-mailed release today. The proportion of borrowers who expect to face difficulties repaying their home loans in the next year rose to 27 percent this month from 19 percent in September, it said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-27/australian-homebuyer-confidence-lowest-since-2008-genworth-says.html

Canada Discusses Forced Depositor Bail-In Procedures for “Too Big To Fail” Banks in 2013 Budget

Inquiring minds in Canada managed to slog through a massive 433 page budget proposal and discovered Depositor Haircut Bail-In Provisions For Systemically Important Banks.

Sure enough. Right on page 145 (PDF page 155) of the Canada Economic Action Plan for 2013 We see …

“The Government proposes to implement a bail-in regime for systemically important banks. This regime will be designed to ensure that, in the unlikely event that a systemically important bank depletes its capital, the bank can be recapitalized and returned to viability through the very rapid conversion of certain bank liabilities into regulatory capital. This will reduce risks for taxpayers. The Government will consult stakeholders on how best to implement a bail- in regime in Canada. Implementation timelines will allow for a smooth transition for affected institutions, investors and other market participants.”

In case you are unfamiliar with bank parlance, deposits are not “assets” they are “liabilities”. A plan that would turn “certain bank liabilities” into regulatory capital is a plan to confiscate deposits.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.au/2013/03/canada-discusses-forced-depositor-bail.html

SA public service – Too big 19,000 jobs must go

THE State Government and Opposition are “too scared” to properly tackle the issue of reducing the public service, Business SA chief executive Nigel McBride says.
Mr McBride said political courage was needed and both major parties should reveal their public sector policies as soon as possible before the March 2014 election.

http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/jobs-must-go-to-end-blowout-motor-trade-association-urges/story-e6frfkp9-1226611268646

#89 bob in a cold house on 04.06.13 at 4:39 am

love the pic Garth awesome, already up on FB with credit to you of course

#90 Jake on 04.06.13 at 4:55 am

#70:
Canadians in general do not complain. I have seen this countless times with people. They take it up the *** and say thank you after. Frustrates me but it is what it is. Nobody complains and big business rakes in the profits.

#91 Ballingsford on 04.06.13 at 6:12 am

#45 disagree. The latest comments don’t get high ratings at the beginning and you’ll be missing some great posts. U sir are a greater fool.

#92 Devore on 04.06.13 at 6:17 am

#11 Joe

What happens to housing prices when inflation kicks in?

Even more importantly, what will happen to housing prices when aliens land?

#93 Devore on 04.06.13 at 6:38 am

#28 None

I agree it’s not a perfect correlation but I think it’s unfair to discount the obvious correlation between markets (as they all ramped up due to the same causes).

It wasn’t a perfect correlation on the way up, and won’t be on the way down. Each market reacted differently and will do so again.

#94 My thoughts on 04.06.13 at 7:25 am

Great post today. I also see the realtor posts on FB… But can’t put up a link because I don’t want to go down that path with friends. Bringing up real estate or this blog gets such a defensive reaction. I’ve been thinking that the economy has been bad for quite some time. I’ve seen many people lost their jobs. I’ve seen many businesses close. I see people every day up to their ears in debt. Even the people that claim to be well off… They are just blowing their money left and right. We’ve been guilty of overly contributing to the economy also (both Canadian and American).. But we are debt free, cash flow positive and diversified with multiple streams of income… So we can. I don’t even bother explaining that to people. We are conservative we’re we need to be. The only thing that alluded us is buying the “dream house”. We missed the “right timing” about 5 years back and now we don’t want to overpay. It’s a choice. I suspect there are others like me sitting on the sidelines. There’s another lesson here. Being happy with what you do have. Everyday people who rent tell me how unhappy thy are and how they are just throwing money away. I try to explain o them how fortunate they are to be in a position to take advantage of this downturn in the market and very few see it. I worry that the ones that are least able will be the suckers at the top of the market. High risk lenders are getting a 13% rate of return on 100k. People are borrowing second mortgages left and right. Scary times. I wish more people would read this blog. There will be a lot of heartache going forward in the future. If you wanted to invest in among making stock… Big pharma would probably be a good one because they will be making big money with all the anxiety and depression meds that will be needed.

#95 My thoughts on 04.06.13 at 7:26 am

Sorry for the iPhone typos

#96 My thoughts on 04.06.13 at 7:31 am

From ctv news : However, in finance, insurance and real estate, 121,100 jobs were gained, while 10,300 jobs were added in professional, scientific and technical services.
Sounds like a lot of job losses coming in the future when real estate corrects

http://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/business/loss-of-54-500-jobs-in-canada-sends-unemployment-to-7-2-per-cent-1.1225328

#97 GeorgeSoonToBeRetired on 04.06.13 at 7:53 am

#45 Simple Reader

Great idea, would help us bypass some of the drivel by idiots posting far too many times.

#98 Devore on 04.06.13 at 8:02 am

#45 Simple Reader

I encourage you to add a voting feature on the comments.

How about no. It becomes either a popularity contest, which is not beneficial to any reader, or establishes and enforces community standards, which Garth is already doing as he deems appropriate.

The comments section is priceless because you can skip past whatever you don’t like, instead of relying on other people to tell you what you should read. And if your retort is “well, I wouldn’t care what other people think, I would read what I want”, then I ask what the purpose of voting is, other than being a useless checklist feature.

#99 Ballingsford on 04.06.13 at 8:04 am

Coho, you are sounding like a sock puppet with your whiny postings. Do you feel less whiny now after having a good sleep?

#100 Ballingsford on 04.06.13 at 8:33 am

#89 bob in a cold house

Saw your posting name and it reminded me of a lot of homeowners lately who are keeping their thermostats turned down to save on heating costs. I’m a renter at the moment, warm, no debt, wife doesn’t nag too much about buying, and saving a bit of coin, not doing without, and my biggest concern today is whether to get 2 bottles of a nice $25 wine that I tried last weekend that I liked, or to buy 2 bottles of a not bad $15 wine and have $20 left over to maybe buy another $20 bottle in case of an emergency like an unexpected thirsty visitor arriving.

#101 Loopback on 04.06.13 at 8:37 am

How can the US be considered in a recovery mode when there are 90 million out of the work

Twelve million, not 90. — Garth

Don’t believe stated 7.6% U3 rate, a more accurate number to measure U.S. unemployment is the 13.7% U-6 rate.

#102 Loopback on 04.06.13 at 8:50 am

We are experiencing governments around the world using inflate or die monetary policy, e.g. Japan, UK and US.

The time is fast approaching where prudence requires purchasing hard assets. It will be counter-intuitive for most under the present environment to actually contemplate going into debt and pay off with inflated dollars.

Liquidity will be toast.

Actually it’s the opposite. Worry about deflation. — Garth

#103 Raven on 04.06.13 at 9:11 am

Down Baby, down down down!

Yes the baton has been handed down from Cheerleader In Chief, F, to all Realtors, Media and anyone with skin in the R.E. game.Lie, cheat, inflate! Or you will have to sell all those BMW’s in R.E office parking lots!

Globally as we’ll as nationally R.E markets are static but local. The U.S Europe, Japan, have already corrected while Canada, Australia and Hong Kong, have yet to fully correct. Is this why the global economy can’t seem to fully reset and recover? Once we all reach a level playing field is when true animal spirits will prevail.

The 1990 correction saw a sales decline that started slowly then sales dropped 50% with a 60 day lag. Then all hell broke loose and prices dropped precipitously.The total crash was basically 85% over within 19 months. Yes, prices still kept falling for several years but the big drop had already occured. That was the time to buy in as the best selection and locations were the first to market.

With that in mind I suggest that we have achieved terminal velocity as of last month and will be at the 18 month point around October 2014. The tide is going out let’s see who isn’t wearing cloths!

“to profit from good advice requires more wisdom than to give it”

#104 The American on 04.06.13 at 10:11 am

At #87: Joe, check your numbers. 90 million Americans out of work would roughly equivocate to 57% unemployment rate, more than doubling that of Spain LMAO. Instead, there are about 12 million out of work, or about 6.5-7%. Far more respectable than most other industrialized nations. The U.S. is DEFINITELY back on track again. I think Canadians tend to get hung up on a statistic, especially negative stats, whether true or not, and cling to it as if it were gospel truth and will never change. I still have Canadian friends quoting me statistics from over 5 years ago, thinking those numbers still hold true for the U.S. Things have changed drastically for the better over the past 18 months in our country. Money is flowing again, albeit not as great as when at peak, but that is fine by me. People are spending, sales across the board are generally up up up, and real estate is moving again at reasonable and sustainable prices. Many of the deals Garth referred to just over a year ago are now gone, gone, gone. For example, Miami is up nearly 30% year over year. Phoenix over 18% YOY. That’s a no brainer, given it had corrected well beyond the mean. Bet you would’ve wished you took his advice now, EH? Canadian real estate is going to be clobbered worse than anything experienced in the U.S. Guaranteed. Hold onto your hats… and your asses.

#105 Otto on 04.06.13 at 10:18 am

I’ve read up to # 35 without reading any crap from AK-hole so lets hope he’s gone. Listen AK-hole (repeated index-finger jabs to AK’s forehead), we like fuursters here and we don’t like you. So go wait for a vacancy in Rome elsewhere, we already have a pope.

#106 Even Simpler Reader on 04.06.13 at 10:41 am

Simple Reader

I think your idea is an interesting one. As a mere reader here I enjoy the quality of Garths writing but sometimes hate the repetitive self-aggrandizing crap from some third rate repeat posters trying to build up a cult or following. If I were to see for example that Smoking Man got even close to 50% approval on here I would immediately decide to save time and not bother reading any comments if that’s the level of abject stupidity of readers of this blog. I would feel comfortable ignoring all comments. Maybe that would not even be a problem for Garth as he is not selling our eyeballs to advertisers so why should he care if we dont read comments only his usually sage advice.

Works for me. Garth please do it. Show us how smart or stupid we really are. If people want to vote thumbs up to old/ smoking/ beach/ man/ girl and goldbug hysteria then that will save me fifteen minutes a day I can spend polishing my Harley instead.

#107 afraidit allmightend on 04.06.13 at 10:59 am

Well it’s official…everybody suffers….except the civil service.

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/04/05/canadas-jobless-rate-ticks-up-as-economy-sheds-55000/

Private jobs and businesses gutted…..but the civil service stays fat and sassy….who says this isn’t a dictatorship of the elite…..certainly no one on this ostrich farm.

Greece and Cyprus…here we come…..led down by the greedy….to the detriment of the needy.

#108 JimH on 04.06.13 at 11:02 am

# 104 The American
Excellent post; thanks!
Our growth may be glacial compared to the frothy “boom” times, but growth is growth regardless, and there is no denying the fact that US stimulus policy has worked for most Americans!

#109 INTERESTING TIMES on 04.06.13 at 11:03 am

A very hard landing is coming for many, make sure you protect yourself!!! Big Negative Feedback Loop coming to Canada’s Economy Soon.

Look at LINKS below and learn my HGTV Virgins!!!!

HGTV Virgins get out there and start low balling these realtors by 50 percent. Don’t waste your time going to open houses when you could just sit on the MLS and low ball these used car salespeople by email. Get out there and get your revenge. Show them that you are not as stupid as the show portrays you!

– Europe already in recession/depression, Japan and US right behind them with anemic growth.

– Jobs being lost everywhere and the Canadian economy is slowing down. Watch and read the news in the business section and learn about the layoffs happening every day my virgins. Educate yourself!

– Austerity starting already in Canada. Many in government jobs will be bye, bye. Federal gov’t firing 20,000 alone in Canada. All gov’t jobs under attack.

– Manufacturing jobs have moved to Asia and back to the US. Canadians can’t compete with the New America where the factory worker now makes $12.00 to $15.00 an hour, with no benefits and new Union Breaking Laws in many States. The New US can now buy a nice home for $100,000K-$200,000K. You are so screwed in Canada!

– Big Bad Alberta is in big danger now. They cannot compete now in the global marketplace with their overpriced Oil and are losing money on every sale now. They are being taken to the cleaners. Not good for our economy. I guess this is why President H & CON government have started throwing a lot of money back into Ontario Car Plants. I guess they realized there mistakes that you can’t only have a 1 trick pony called Alberta Oil but need a diversified economy. Poor management on their end and more job losses to come.

– 70% of CDN living pay cheque to pay cheque and have no savings and over 70% have no pensions

– 60% of boomers 60 years and older entering retirement in a lot of debt. Also, a lot of these boomer fools co-signed for their kids $800,000 Mc Mansions. The banksters will wipe the floor clean with both the kids and parents after this 50% RE Crash when they both lose their homes!

– Empty condos being built everywhere and will be going for 50% off soon. HGTV Virgins will be crushed!!! Many HGTV Virgins are going bankrupt at Trump Towers, what happened to RE only goes up? Many in the Construction Trades will be soon unemployed. They have already started calling begging for any kind of work. I feel sorry for them as it will be times for them and their families. The only thing Canada had for the last 10 years was construction jobs and now these jobs will be going bye, bye as well. At the same time over the last 10 years all our good manufacturing jobs were going overseas.

– Empty homes all over the MLS, can you say power of sales have started, soon 50% off will be coming to Canada. Also your friends at the CHMC are trying to hide all the Power of Sales & Bank owned homes that are flooding the marketplace so you don’t low ball them. Word of advice if the home is empty then LOW BALL IT.

– For lease signs everywhere in business districts and commercial areas, I guess business has moved out of Canada

– Canadians are 165% in debt! More than the US, Ireland, Spain, and UK when they had their RE Crash.

– Over 8 months of dropping RE sales. Next thing to drop will be prices by 50%.

– Over 70% of mortgages in Canada are 5% or 0 down CHMC mortgages. Can you say high risk and backed by the taxpayer. When this baby blows up kiss your social services good bye. This is what the in action plan looks like. We supported our banks with free taxpayer dollars to give out loans to people with no money creating a RE Ponzi scheme 10 times bigger than the US, Spain, Ireland etc. Even Brother C is bailing out of Canada and going to the UK after his poor policies of 1% rates have enslaved Canadians with unrepayable debt at record levels “What a Rock Star”. See you later fools he will be saying.

– And remember a home is only worth what a buyer will pay.

– The realtards, brokers, banksters and builders are in full out panic mode. They have already enslaved 70% of Canadians with RE Debt and there is no more FREE Money to give to the other 30% HGTV Virgins.

The 50% crash is here my virgins. Get out there and start low balling as the time is now for your revenge. Don’t sign up for bank slavery like the other 70% of the HGTV Virgins in Canada. They are screwed for life now as they were sold the Kool-Aid by the RE industry!

Get out there and start Low Balling by 50% as you have the Power Now.

#110 Daisy Mae on 04.06.13 at 11:05 am

#27Luke Siragusa @ #12 Kessel: “If your marriage depends on what someone else says it’s already over.”

**************************

Financial problems are a major factor in the skyrocketing divorce rate. High unemployment will take its’ toll. Then, wait until these new mortgages come up for renewal…..

#111 The Prophet Elijah on 04.06.13 at 11:07 am

#103 Raven

The 1990 correction saw a sales decline that started slowly then sales dropped 50% with a 60 day lag. Then all hell broke loose and prices dropped precipitously.The total crash was basically 85% over within 19 months. Yes, prices still kept falling for several years but the big drop had already occured. That was the time to buy in as the best selection and locations were the first to market.
———————————————————
What was the overall price decline? What areas were hit hardest/least?

Thanks

#112 The Prophet Elijah on 04.06.13 at 11:14 am

#104 The American

For example, Miami is up nearly 30% year over year. Phoenix over 18% YOY. That’s a no brainer, given it had corrected well beyond the mean. Bet you would’ve wished you took his advice now, EH? Canadian real estate is going to be clobbered worse than anything experienced in the U.S. Guaranteed. Hold onto your hats… and your asses.
———————————————————
Sadly the U.S has gone back to loose lending standards to give housing a boost so the Federal Reserve might have a small chance to off load their purchases of toxic mortgage back securities, as ludicrous as this sounds.
It’s not that they don’t learn from their mistakes, it’s that they are getting very desperate for solutions…any solution. Including Hail Mary’s.
It’s not a bad idea to get in for a short ride, like a pump and dump, just don’t be the last man out and the lone bag holder.
In addition, the US has way bigger problems on the horizon, the BRICS trading block is a major threat to US dollar reserve currency. And this is all in the not too distant future.

#113 Drill Baby Drill on 04.06.13 at 11:18 am

Who is Buying in Calgary you may ask ? It is the people who still have not heard the news of the upcomming real estate pull back. The economic reality that is just now hitting TO and VAN has not trully materialized here in Cowtown just yet. There are many who are spending thier bonus windfalls on home move-ups or first time buyers getting in debt up to thier neck because they think they will have steady work in the oil patch over the next several years. Many new condo sales are being made to 20 somethings whose parents are giving them the downpayment for a 4 storey “chip board chateaux” thinking it is a great investment. Oh the Horror !!!

#114 Daisy Mae on 04.06.13 at 11:26 am

“Despite house sales declining in number, prices have still been going up, Porter said.”

Read more: http://www.thestarphoenix.com/business/Moderate+growth+forecast+2013/8198591/story.html#ixzz2PhINqLw9

***************************

Do these people ever listen to themselves? :-)

#115 Daisy Mae on 04.06.13 at 11:36 am

#42 Al: “….there is not much talk of reducing recurring expenses.”

***********************

People are cutting back out of necessity — packing their lunches, foregoing the lattes, walking to/fro, shopping at consignment stores, eliminating their landlines….it’s a challenge figuring out how to cut expenses and not a bad thing.

#116 Daisy Mae on 04.06.13 at 11:41 am

….and before anyone lambasts me about iPhones, it’s reassuring to have one always available for emergencies, etc. I wouldn’t be without mine. LOL

#117 INTERESTING TIMES on 04.06.13 at 11:43 am

TOO Late 50% RE Crash has started. Everyday on the News and business section the smart money is getting out of RE as the 50% RE Crash has started. Read & Learn my HGTV Virgins as many of you will get slaughtered by RE. There is NO MORE FREE MONEY to bail out Canada Period. The CON government played all there cards in the 2008 Recession / Depression. Even the Cab Driver knows RE will be crashing by 50%. Get out while you can.

Read & Learn.

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/04/05/canadian-housing-downturn/?__lsa=1d8a-907b

http://www.thestar.com/business/economy/2013/04/02/ottawa_may_further_dampen_mortgage_market.html

#118 The Prophet Elijah on 04.06.13 at 11:44 am

Looks like house listings in Calgary and area have jumped about +200 in the last couple weeks. Is this standard or normal? About 5500 listed for sale.

#119 Raven on 04.06.13 at 11:47 am

110 the Prophet Elijah

Prices in Ont. on average dropped around 25% by the fall of 1992. Areas hardest to purchase lots pre bubble (ie overbuilt) were longest on the market to recover. Toronto condos fell in some instances 55% or more depending on the deal you could obtain. This overbuild is double the duration of the late eighties and will again revert to the mean. Largest concentration of construction in relation to population directly correlates to price increases and eventual downfall. Overbuild is equal to and directly proportional to duration and price corrections!

#120 darkselling on 04.06.13 at 11:49 am

To the poster who posted the Calgary average monthly earnings – holy crap Albertan’s make a lot of money. Makes their real estate market seem a lot more affordable.

To the poster from Calgary who commented on a crappy site along 6th avenue selling office condo’s and an empty lot. Hardly indicative of the real estate market at all. It’s a site that was purchased and marketed around the time Concrete Equities and the other fraudsters were buying up real estate and flipping to investors while milking management fees commingling funds, peddling Mexican investments and 20% guaranteed annual returns.

Bad properties exist in every market strong or week.

Oxford going ahead with their Eau Claire building with Meg Energy takings 11 floors. Brookfields Herald Square a few other developments that I can’t mention due to confidentiality. These are going forward because of confidence in the job market and continued growth of corporate Calgary. Selling a crappy office condo on a crappy site with crappy options is simply a crappy comparison. Retail, Industrial and Office vacancies are all at respectable levels that warrant the construction of new product. Yeah putting up a 1,000,000 sf office building can dent the market a bit, but not significantly.

Honestly Calgary’s housing market is actually at an interesting point. Some areas are affordable others are just dumb. I just purchased a SFH for $460,000 in an area close to DT, close to major job growth, large yard, double attached garage and rents out for $2,400 per month. About 16x rent to own ratio. Hardly a market that’s totally out of whack.

I’d be cautious dropping $600-900k on a nondescript SFH in some other communities West Springs, Aspen, Wentworth that I think match Garth’s horny criteria, or $400,000+ in the communities at the end of the city, Mahogany, Cranston, New Brighton, etc. where you’re more likely to find a grow up than a parking spot in front of your tiny lot with the un-built garage in the back lane.

But don’t discount how much Calgarians make and the job growth potential in the City. A long term recovery in the US will bode well for Alberta and the growth in jobs will keep demand for housing and rent at a good level.

Again, I’ve said there’s stupid prices and areas in Calgary – there’s also reasonable and healthy prices too. As with any purchase you don’t blow your wad and get carried away with what you can really afford – today’s interest rate environment makes that a big possibility.

#121 Toronto_CA on 04.06.13 at 11:54 am

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/04/05/canadian-housing-downturn/?__lsa=bdfd-9006

Good one from the Financial Post for once.

“The Canadian economy is highly levered to the real estate market and its derivative industries, such as construction. These housing-related industries account for 27% of the Canadian economy, compared to 24% at the peak of the housing boom for the U.S. In other words, employment in construction and real estate is generally much higher now in Canada than it ever was in the U.S.”

#122 settee potatoe on 04.06.13 at 11:55 am

#104 – The American – Always look for your posts! Usualy the best of the bunch. Please keep it up.

#123 Canuck Abroad on 04.06.13 at 11:55 am

Hi Garth, close relative of mine died recently and left his Vancouver house to two teenagers who live thousands of miles away. They are planning to sell. I’m struggling to remember…I know you have posted on “How to Buy” but have you ever done a post on “How to Sell”? If not, would your one and only piece of advice be “price it sensibly”. Thanks!

#124 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 04.06.13 at 11:56 am

PEOPLE NOT IN LABOR FORCE SOAR BY 663,000 TO 90 MILLION, LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE AT 1979 LEVELS

http://www.republicbroadcasting.org/index.php?cmd=news.article&articleID=5056

Things just keep getting worse for the American worker, and by implication US economy, where as we have shown many times before, it pays just as well to sit back and collect disability and various welfare and entitlement checks, than to work .The best manifestation of this: the number of people not in the labor force which in March soared by a massive 663,000 to a record 90 million Americans who are no longer even looking for work. This was the biggest monthly increase in people dropping out of the labor force since January 2012, when the BLS did its census recast of the labor numbers. And even worse, the labor force participation rate plunged from an already abysmal 63.5% to 63.3% – the lowest since 1979! But at least it helped with the now painfully grotesque propaganda that the US unemployment rate is “improving.”

etc.

Tea Party rubbish. — Garth

#125 jess on 04.06.13 at 12:00 pm

in addition to cbc news last night regarding hermitage capital

BVI recognises British law

The offshore trick: how BVI ‘nominee director’ system worksThree pieces of paper are vital in setting up ready-made companies
David Leigh, Harold Frayman and James Ball
The Guardian, Sunday 25 November 2012 20.00 GMT

In theory, anti-money laundering laws in practically every country in the world specify that companies must be able to be traced back to their “beneficial owner”, the person who pockets the profits and controls the company’s actions. In practice, however, this system is broken…In Britain it is the tax authority, HMRC, that is supposed to ensure that company service providers obey the rules. Yet despite all the law-breaking revealed by the mystery shopping exercise, last year, they told us at Global Witness that they had never sanctioned a company service provider for failing to live up to their anti-money laundering requirements…
——————-

http://www.taxfairness.ca/news/rbc-treats-canadians-who-believe-playing-rules-total-fools

Special Purpose Entity (SPE) or spv- special purpose vehicles -SPV special purpose vehicles -Secret film shows how buyers of luxury London homes can avoid millions in tax
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/dec/16/london-property-tax-avoidance-offshore
dummy companies and secrecy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKdBAKgzkZo&list=UUfnUmbmo7jHDO0O5XgRJRNw&index=2

from 2003
http://www.tavakolistructuredfinance.com/spe.pdf

#126 IM in C on 04.06.13 at 12:15 pm

This has to be the most blatant piece of advertorial junk I’ve seen to date from the Piggster. Garth, when will you take her to task?

http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2013/04/06/every_house_has_a_story_this_one_started_in_nairobi_almost_50_years_ago.html

#127 Form Man on 04.06.13 at 12:20 pm

Kelowna sales down 7% in March 2013 compared to March 2012. DA’s trumpeted spring rebound has failed to materialize……….

The housing market in the Okanagan is still looking bleak. Unlike Vancouver and Calgary etc, Kelowna never recovered from the the recession of 2009.

Over the last 20 years the economy of Kelowna has become less and less diversified, and more and more reliant on housing, making the Central Okanagan an example of what awaits other communites that have experienced the same circumstances.

#128 Oceanside on 04.06.13 at 12:36 pm

The only thing that alluded us is buying the “dream house”. We missed the “right timing” about 5 years back and now we don’t want to overpay. It’s a choice. I suspect there are others like me sitting on the sidelines.
*********************************************
Us as well since June 1st 2012, still not enough good choices at the right prices…”Don’t want to catch a falling knife” syndrome is rampant in BC.

#129 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 04.06.13 at 12:40 pm

Judge Lets Stockton Stay in Bankruptcy, and Creditors Tremble

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-04-01/judge-lets-stockton-stay-in-bankruptcy-and-creditors-tremble

A federal judge ruled on Monday that Stockton, Calif., can stay under bankruptcy protection, a decision that puts Stockton on the path to becoming the first city since the 1930s to force truly big losses on its creditors.

Over four days last week, U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Christopher M. Klein heard testimony that will decide who will pay for the bubble-era excesses that included the construction of Stockton’s waterfront arena and yacht slips. The hearing technically concerned whether the city met the criteria for filing for Chapter 9, a type of bankruptcy reserved exclusively for municipalities. Bondhonders challenged whether the city was truly insolvent and whether it negotiated with creditors “in good faith,” both of which are required to get bankruptcy protection. If the judge had agreed, bondholders could have filed suit in state court, which would have made it easier for them to force the city to raise taxes, sell assets, and lower pension payments.

The judge did not agree. He rejected both of the bondholders’ arguments, saying the city “by any measure” was broke and that it was the creditors, not the city, who had failed to negotiate. “Negotiation is by definition a two-way street,” Klrin said. “You cannot negotiate with a stone wall.”

The case could set a precedent for other struggling towns, which would aid pensioners but raise risks for lenders, thereby increasing the costs for cities to borrow. As Bloomberg News reports, “No city or county since at least the 1930s has used the power of a U.S. bankruptcy court to force a reduction in its debt principal.” Two other cities—Jefferson, Ala., and San Bernardino, Calif.—have already petitioned for Chapter 9 protection. No doubt they—and their creditors—had their eyes on the outcome of this case.

===================================

#130 The Man From Nantucket on 04.06.13 at 12:42 pm

#65 The Prophet Elijah on 04.05.13 at 11:17 pm
Is anyone else seeing a lot more house pumping on facebook. Real estate agents proclaiming how robust the market is and letting everyone know when they get a sale?…………..

I have a close friend who is a realtor in the extremities of GTA.

He did well over the last few years. Lately, the hits are fewer and further between, and no one’s in a rush to buy.

Luckily, he saw friends and relative realtors through the last slowdown……knows what’s coming, is as prepared as one can be and clearheaded.

Thinking that for the bright ones that want to keep hustling in this industry, now might be a good time to take a short sabbatical and work on the commercial license.

in many ways that’s better. Paydays aren’t quite as sweet, but the work is steadier. Other bonus is that you’re dealing with an entrepreneur as opposed to the marginally above average idiot from general population…….to the businessfolks, it’s all dollars and risk. Far less emotion, less handholding, less bullshit.

#131 Buy? Curious? on 04.06.13 at 12:42 pm

The party is over folks! Grab your keys from the bowl and go home with whomever you want.

(That’s Swingers Talk but applicable to today’s real estate market, I think)

#132 World Traveller on 04.06.13 at 12:43 pm

#2 City that smells like it sounds on 04.05.13 at 8:58 pm
FURRRRRRRRRRRRRRSTT!!!!!!!!!!! Oh baby!!!

Second actually, did you pass math in grade school?

#133 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 04.06.13 at 12:51 pm

#127 Form Man on 04.06.13 at 12:20 pm

I saw this coming decades ago.

The area has always been economically depressed.

My Dad worked for a RV manufacturer, the company was sold and moved the Winfield, BECAUSE the BC Gov’t at the time was offering to subsidize any new business which moved there by 33% .

As I stated before, the Coquihalla Highway was built so that those that cashed out in Metro Vancouver would have a new place to call home.

Party is OVER.

#134 jess on 04.06.13 at 12:56 pm

how about this growth chart

http://www.leftfootforward.org/2013/04/tax-avoidance-and-the-myth-of-trickle-down-wealth/

#135 Buy? Curious? on 04.06.13 at 12:59 pm

Here’s what’s coming boomers! You should be happy that cat food is $0.33 a tin!

http://m.gawker.com/5993893/once+prosperous-italian-couple-kills-themselves-amid-financial-ruin

#136 AK on 04.06.13 at 1:02 pm

#112 The Prophet Elijah on 04.06.13 at 11:14 am
“In addition, the US has way bigger problems on the horizon, the BRICS trading block is a major threat to US dollar reserve currency. And this is all in the not too distant future.”
——————————————————————–
I have seen a lot of useless propaganda on this Blog, but this one is motherload.

#137 chickenlittle on assignment on 04.06.13 at 1:17 pm

My landlord just dropped his price down from $780k to $760k. 4 months on the market in total and not one offer! This area used to be hot, and now is not apparently. Mississauga is slowing down! There is only one other house for sale in this street and it is $100k cheaper.
When your 70 and have a $400k mortgage, that is not a good position to be in!

#138 Joe on 04.06.13 at 1:18 pm

87 Garth….12 million not 90

Shadow stats show that the number of people that are eligible for the labor force is over 90 million.
Also numbers from the January BLS census, show the big picture.
A vast number of Americans have given up looking.
The 12 million accounts for active claims, as soon you are no longer eligible or your claim expires you are removed from the category.
The US recovery is a myth being supported by unsustainable measures and the employment data confirms that.

You are wrong. But believe what you wish. — Garth

#139 :):( Ying Yang on 04.06.13 at 1:42 pm

Awfully quiet today, nothing from smoking man. He must’ve got slammed at casino Niagara last night!

#140 Old Man on 04.06.13 at 1:46 pm

Mr. Turner once again has put up a great photo with a hidden meaning, and I get it, but no further comment.
Oh Boy!!!

#141 Timbo on 04.06.13 at 1:52 pm

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/charles-hugh-smith/why-government-is-desperately-trying-to

“Meanwhile, total consumer debt has barely budged. In other words, that $1 trillion reduction in mortgage debt has been offset with rising student loans, auto loans and other consumer debt.

The total debt load on U.S. households remains at bubble levels, more than twice the debt owed in 2000. Population growth since 2000 accounts for 9.7% of this additional debt, meaning that if debt had risen at pre-bubble rates, total debt would be around $6.5 trillion rather than $13 trillion.”

Can’t you just smell the job growth in the air with all that consumer debt leading the charge…..

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/06/tax-changes-families-ed-balls

“figures commissioned by the Labour party from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) show that a one-earner family with children will lose an average of just under £4,000.

Labour argues the figures show the government has the wrong priorities because the tax changes include a cut in the top rate of income tax from 50p to 45p. This will give 13,000 people who earn more than £1m an average tax cut of £100,000. The change will benefit 267,000 people earning £150,000-plus a year.”

Trickle down econ 101 in full effect. Offshore the money will go , will it come back, no.no.no!!!

#142 Juleso on 04.06.13 at 2:04 pm

Excerpt from #109

“Over 70% of mortgages in Canada are 5% or 0 down CHMC”

Do we know what the real % is?

#143 Timing is Everything on 04.06.13 at 2:13 pm

The following is deemed not credible.

Now, for the rest of the story…

“I think we have seen the end of good jobs reports here [USA] and in Canada for quite some time.”

http://tinyurl.com/d483bqm
http://tinyurl.com/cwyoazm

http://tinyurl.com/cawrqyb

#144 Keith in Calgary on 04.06.13 at 2:14 pm

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12891610&PidKey=-689625973

Here’s a perfect example of what we’re talking about. This house is down the street from where we live here in Calgary. I drive past it twice a day. It was first put on the market by it’s recent owner about 9 months ago with a different realtor for $1.2MM……..then delisted……then relisted with a new realtor 6 months ago @1.09MM………then $999K when the CMHC mortgage changes occurred…….then $979K…….$949K…….$929K………$909K…….and now it’s going begging @ $899K……..and when compared to the rest of the overpriced comps, it is still about $150K too high IMHO.

Funniest part of the whole ad is that it has a “Carriage House” which is a small apartment on the roof of the garage in the back alley. The ad says it is legally tenanted at $930 a month, yet for the last year I have never seen a light on in the place every time I drive by. Funny ‘dat……..I didn’t know ghosts could rent. And, when you can rent a downtown high rise apartment for the same amount of money, why on earth would you want to live in a garage roof flat in the middle of nowhere for just as much money ?

#145 dosouth on 04.06.13 at 2:18 pm

Another realtor poll just like the one Garth slammed the others at. This time it is Vancouver and a very good blogger “Rainforest Whisper” needs some support. Most here have read the blog.

Please vote for the lab in the picture – yup, this is her. She uses his picture in remembrance as he passed away last fall.

Vote now and vote often – thanks!

http://blog.buzzbuzzhome.com/2013/04/most-trustworthy-expert-vancouve-real-estate-market.html

#146 Daisy Mae on 04.06.13 at 2:22 pm

Understanding ‘deflation’….

WIKIPEDIA: “Deflation can lead to a ‘deflationary spiral’ — a situation where decreases in price lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and demand, which leads to further decreases in price….resulting in a a vicious circle, where a problem exacerbates its own cause.”

#147 Fed-up on 04.06.13 at 2:32 pm

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/homeowners-don-t-think-they-ll-be-mortgage-free-until-they-re-57-cibc-survey-1.1225363#commentsField-384727

Bahahahahahahahahahaha….the poll must have been full of 56 year olds with 10 payments left on their mortgages. Let’s look at reality shall we; , a crapload of 30 and 40 somethings with fresh 35 and 40 year mortgages since 2009 that have added helocs to their already insane mortgage principal. The number should be more like “never”.

#148 Form Man on 04.06.13 at 2:40 pm

#133 Dr Hoof-Hearted

You are correct. Sadly, those facts seem to have eluded Kelowna’s current mayor. Surrounded by empty condo towers and unfinished single family home developments, the mayor stubbornly calls for less regulation and more construction. That it is buyers who are needed, not more homes, is a fact seemingly lost on our civic leaders.

#149 raginnn on 04.06.13 at 2:41 pm

From the National Post. Finally some honest and straight reporting.
Kudos to Theresa Tedesco of the NP:

‘We’re in for a painful period': Signs of a Canadian housing downturn are everywhere

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/04/05/canadian-housing-downturn/?__lsa=b22c-5afc

#150 Mr. Monday Night on 04.06.13 at 2:44 pm

Lot of folks surprised that the bottom hasn’t fell out of RE prices yet despite slow sales figures. Does it surprise anyone that sellers do not want to take a huge hit and get stuck with nothing but massive debt? Until the sale takes place, the loss is only on paper.

I’m not a seller, but I can certainly sympathize with these greater fools who bought into the hype and thought they’d get rich through real estate. I would be hesitant to lower my asking price as well, unless I was so far underwater that I couldn’t keep up with my payments. I’d even take a loss and get a renter in if I had to, at least the loss would be spread over multiple periods.

Will prices tank everywhere? Who can predict? I’m tired of the discussion with folks who have a stake in this, apparently it’s different in Calgary / Halifax / Ottawa / etc, etc…I do know that the power to change this lies entirely in the hand of the buyer. How long is the buyer willing to rent to bring the prices down? Forever? Everyone has a different threshold. I know that properties that are currently $350K are seen as ‘very affordable’, when those same properties were selling for below $150K in 2001. All I know is that I’m not going house-poor just to impress.

Finally, a word on accepting advice from family and friends. Most people still thinks it’s 2006 when it was a great investment to buy real estate. All those people who are in a house telling you that it’s always a great time to buy are potentially leading you down the road to ruin. Many are in their dream homes already and have no intention to sell, so their free advice is that: free. My respective response to those well-intentioned people telling me that buying is always better than renting is to agree to disagree. I have a work colleague who recently made double on his house sale in Kelowna, then leaned hard on his daughter to get into the market to make a killing like he did. She proceeded to buy not one, but two condos that have been sitting vacant for months unsold and unrented. You think she’s not bitter about that? She’s not returning his calls is all I can say.

#151 Post Haste on 04.06.13 at 2:44 pm

I don’t cheer for other’s to fail – because we as a society fail when others are struggling.

However, and a total contradiction to what I just said – my #1 A-hole neighbour who works in construction – I have been seeing him home earlier – hopefully he gets his azz handed to him – loses his job and moves…

#152 Gunboat Denier on 04.06.13 at 2:55 pm

121 TCA – I believe the figure is for the FIRE sector which includes finance, insurance and real estate. Guess where CAs and FAs fit in.

#153 Rob in TO on 04.06.13 at 2:58 pm

http://tosold.ca/

I scrolled to the very bottom link for the ones that sold for over 425K – http://www.torontomls.net/PublicWeb/CL_CF.asp?link_no=48181096.206100&t=l&fm=F

Look at the one right at the top of that page…

993 Queen St W 311 Sold: $931,500
Toronto, Ontario List: $925,000
M6J1H2 Toronto C01 Niagara

Orig Price: $925,000
Taxes: $5,640.35/2012 101 % List

DOM: 2
Contract: 4/2/2013 Sold: 4/4/2013

Nice digs, went for 1% over asking and sold in just 2 days. There must be a lot of house…er…condo hornies out there (some of them) with money. It’s likely they are paying all cash (or not) for a for a place in the Queen & Shaw area. It is under a million, so they can get financing with a sufficient down payment and proof of high net worth and income.

I like the one at the very bottom of the page too. It is brand new, probably a flipper, all for the bargain price of just under 434K, parking is available for $35,000 + locker for $3,000 – a 625 sq.ft. box. Note the maint. fees of $255/month…only thing included is water. Hydro and central air are NOT included. If the buyer is not a flipper, he, she or them might get “flipped”. Whatever, whoever ends up in this place are in for a BIG surprise when the maint. fees shoot up, once a board of directors is elected and ‘reality’ sets in.

I just moved into a condo rental unit just off Bayview, near Sheppard and am paying $1425/month for my 600-700 sq. ft box in the sky, and you know what, I’m not complaining (much), just have to get used to living in a much smaller place.

I sold my 1,500 sq.ft. condo last May, West of here on Sheppard Ave. W and it was bought and paid for in cash in 1999. I was paying just under $1,000/month maint. fees and with property taxes, it felt like I was paying rent for a place that I outright owned. It couldn’t be justified in my mind. Thirteen years of living there was good, except for the board of directors that kept getting re-elected, year after year. One of them was 78 years old when he and his wife moved in and what an arrogant mouthpiece he was – he thought he owned the whole building, he only owned the largest penthouse, damn fool. The rest of the directors followed him like sheep, idolized him in some sort of sick way. He died about 2 years ago at 90 or 91 years old and they named the party room after him, closed door meeting, without consulting with the rest of the owners. Believe me you, this guy did not merit getting a room named after him.

The only amenity was a very small gym, with three crappy pieces of equipment. It would have been better if the builder made that into a small suite. That would have made 57 suites instead of 56 in this low rise 6 story building. I admit that I miss the place, the layout was nice, had a whirlpool bathtub and a separate shower stall in the ensuite bedroom. I used the den as an office and the second bedroom was for guests.

What the MSM is just starting to talk about more are maintenance fees in condominiums. I have seen some real dumps on the MLS listings that are going for very low asking prices, as in under 100K, yet the fees are ridiculous, close to what I was paying. It is probably the result of a crappy board of directors and/or the property management company…gotta’ keep that reserve fund up or wait for it – special assessment. I got hit with one in 2002 for about 3,600 bucks. As a result, the property management company was fired – they were actually stealing from all of us. A lawyer was consulted and he said it would cost a fortune to take them to court and we could have lost. I have seen the name of that property management company in a lot of listings, obviously, I can’t disclose the name, not needing to be sued, if someone there reads this pathetic blog…heheh.

Either way, it costs big to own and maintain a SFH or condo in Toronto and the other big cities. Damn it, I have lived here all my life and do not want to move to the ‘stix’. There is no guarantee of a reasonable price even if you find a place in the ‘stix’ anymore.

The RE market is still nothing short of insane. It looks like I’ll be renting for the rest of my days.

At least this building is CLEAN, quiet, lots of amenities, a concierge and seems to be well managed, so far…this is my 6th day here.

I have to try to sell some of my stuff, it is very cramped in here. Doubtful that will happen, those websites got me enquiries only by email previously. Even charities do not pick up anymore, some of them even charge to do that.

#154 Anon on 04.06.13 at 3:00 pm

#126

In this story in the Star. It has nothing has changed? Times have definitely changed!!! The ratio to home prices to annual salary in 1969 was only 3.4. What is it now? Anywhere from 5-12!

#155 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 04.06.13 at 3:10 pm

David Stockman:

‘The United States is broke — fiscally, morally, intellectually’

http://politics.heraldtribune.com/2013/04/01/david-stockman-the-united-states-is-broke-fiscally-morally-intellectually/

GREENWICH, Conn. — The Dow Jones and Standard & Poor’s 500 indexes reached record highs on Thursday, having completely erased the losses since the stock market’s last peak, in 2007.

But instead of cheering, we should be very afraid.

Over the last 13 years, the stock market has twice crashed and touched off a recession: American households lost $5 trillion in the 2000 dot-com bust and more than $7 trillion in the 2007 housing crash. Sooner or later — within a few years, I predict — this latest Wall Street bubble, inflated by an egregious flood of phony money from the Federal Reserve rather than real economic gains, will explode, too.

Since the S.&P. 500 first reached its current level, in March 2000, the mad money printers at the Federal Reserve have expanded their balance sheet sixfold (to $3.2 trillion from $500 billion).

Yet during that stretch, economic output has grown by an average of 1.7 percent a year (the slowest since the Civil War); real business investment has crawled forward at only 0.8 percent per year; and the payroll job count has crept up at a negligible 0.1 percent annually. Real median family income growth has dropped 8 percent, and the number of full-time middle class jobs, 6 percent.

The real net worth of the “bottom” 90 percent has dropped by one-fourth. The number of food stamp and disability aid recipients has more than doubled, to 59 million, about one in five Americans.

etc etc

Why don’t the social engineers on this blog worry more about Canada and their own lives than they anti-US junk they pick up on Obama-bashing web sites? — Garth

#156 Rob in TO on 04.06.13 at 3:19 pm

Oh, only click on the first link in my post # 154 unless you want to disclose your email address and subscribe to this newsletter. It’s not a bad idea, but some people don’t want to do this because it can generate spam in your inbox. Clicking on the second link should pose no problem.

#157 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 04.06.13 at 3:20 pm

@#45 Simple Reader
I vote to Ban #46
Mr. “Copy Paste”
Bizarre doesnt even begin to describe copying Garths’ latest comment and posting it. Day after day after day.
However, Turrettes Syndrome and a bottle of Tequila might ………

#158 geelemitti on 04.06.13 at 3:25 pm

US recovery?? what recovery?
It is the US Financial markets soaking up all that stimulus not the US economy so good for investors bad for average US citizen.
http://business.time.com/2013/04/05/u-s-economy-adds-just-88000-jobs-in-march-unemployment-rate-falls-to-7-6/

#159 Old Man on 04.06.13 at 3:26 pm

I am worried about the condo market in the core of Toronto, and say down by 50% as a crash which will be a disaster involving big capital money. Now lets take a walk back in history with a reverse scenerio, about an increase of 50% during the early 1970’s, as such indeed occurred in a matter of months, and within a year an $18,000 condo had a market value of about $34,000. The Ontario Government had to step in with a 20% speculation tax to stop the madness of it all. The point that I am making is that a crash of 50% with the mess in the core of condo bliss might become a reality, and can happen fast. Too many core condos are held by speculators that are either being rented out as a loss, or are empty. So what if they all bail out at the same time with a panic?

#160 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 04.06.13 at 3:26 pm

#149 Form Man on 04.06.13 at 2:40 pm

Yeah, I’m just trying to sound realistic…Kelowna will be a good canary in the mine for Metro Vancouver. If Kelowna slows down…that means the HAM is slowing down at this end.

In addition, our City now wants to consider a $60 million museum. WTF ?

What we are seeing is the industrial land base being eroded as Local Gov’ts compete to be World Class Cities…y’know all the bells and whistles.

Politicians are in denial…they are stuck. If you have empty unsold inventory in any other commodity, the factory should slow down of stop. They need the veneer of progress, which is to show some form of economic development, even if it is effectively Potemkin villages. To me.. its just money laundering.

The end game seems to be a ponzi scheme economy built on residential real estate. When that collapses….look out…it will not end well.

Nothing to me indicates “Detroit” will not be the global urban model in a few decades.

#161 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 04.06.13 at 3:30 pm

Why don’t the social engineers on this blog worry more about Canada and their own lives than they anti-US junk they pick up on Obama-bashing web sites? — Garth

=======

Firstly Canada is not a “soverieign” country , it is a colony………and Secondly you keep claiming NOT to bet against the US.

Obama? LOL ..lets not get into that.

You are no longer worth responding to. — Garth

#162 frustrated on 04.06.13 at 4:14 pm

I think lots of guys are in the same boat. Wifes putting pressure to buy a house so they can have a home. I just wish that when the numbers that come out every month it would be honest. I was given till Aug to buy a house =) If we dont see a price decline for the month of April vs last April, someone is really fluffing something. I guess we will find out in May

#163 Jazmine on 04.06.13 at 4:17 pm

Real US unemployment is over 20%

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

Yeah yeah…..Mr Williams is a nut job right? Unless its a Govt statistic it’s gotta be a conspiracy. That whole conspiracy thinking is starting to get really old.

#164 Stoopid Idiot on 04.06.13 at 4:26 pm

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – American employers hired at the slowest pace in nine months in March, a sign that Washington’s austerity drive could be stealing momentum from the economy.
The economy added just 88,000 jobs last month and the jobless rate ticked a tenth of a point lower to 7.6 percent largely due to people dropping out of the work force, Labor Department data showed on Friday.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a gain of 200,000.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/steady-job-gains-seen-bolstering-040319810.html;_ylt=AiunnEP3d9XshAxMaVOakSmiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTN1N21xaXQ5BG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIE1lZ2F0cm9uIDIEcGtnAzg0ZTRkYzJiLWJiNjctMzViMC05NzdkLTBlNWIyZjA1NDE5NQRwb3MDMQRzZWMDbWVnYXRyb24EdmVyAzBmYTJhYzgwLTlkZWYtMTFlMi05ZjlmLTQ4ZDMwMTYxNmQwNw–;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.ca/2013/04/weak-job-gains-cast-shadow-on-us.html

Just a quick note on some startling facts about the US debt.

It took 206 years to accumulate the first Trillion in debt (1776 to 1982).

It only took 5 years to accumulate the 2nd Trillion in debt (1982 to 1987).

It now takes less than 1 year to add an additional 1 Trillion in debt.

Of course with will end badly…… real badly… but for the astute this is a lesson on inflation or better yet the erosion of purchasing power due to inflation
remember inflation follows the increase in monetary aggregate or quantitative easing…. Ah, call it what it is… Printing Money

TurnerNation… to funny

# 17 DaleFromCalgary on 04.05.13 at 9:32 pm
“There isn’t any flood of well-paid engineers buying houses in remote Calgary suburbs like Cranston or Kincora”
Then who’s buying these homes in Calgary?

May I suggest … easy money!

Dale is partially right. But If you have been in Blackfalds Cenovus builds their mod’s there. Fly in to Edmonton and you’ll get a birds eye view of Ledcor’s Nisku’s Mod yards. But for the most part the white collars in Calgary are hurting… maybe just a little extras savings.

For the record Garth… I’m ungay too

#54 Old Man

Sorry I disagree… I’m always on the lookout for the support of some statement’s. Honesty I cant believe the amount of money around Calgary on weekends and week nights at restaurants & shopping mall’s. If I didn’t know better I’d say things are fine… again just an observation

#62 Blacksheep

He’s mocking you Garth… he said Ounce

#104 The American

You need a new source

#http://www.shadowstats.com/

And what about shadow inventories? http://business.time.com/2012/02/08/what-is-the-shadow-inventory-how-many-homes-could-be-for-sale/

#106 Even Simpler Reader

Why do you feel compelled to read the post’s?

#137 AK

AKA$$ Whole You wouldn’t know a Mother Load if you stepped in it… or should I say Dr. Wayne

You are wrong. But believe what you wish. — Garth

Not fair Garth….

http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp

U6:
This augments U5 by including part-time workers to the unemployment rate calculation. The addition of part-time workers adds a full 2-3 percentage points to the official unemployment rate. This measure of unemployment is perhaps the most comprehensive measure of labor resource unemployment available.

Why don’t the social engineers on this blog worry more about Canada and their own lives than they anti-US junk they pick up on Obama-bashing web sites? — Garth

No disrespect Garth but we constantly hear… “don’t bet against the U.S.” in light of all the post and links there seems to be a lot on denial as to the health of the U.S. economy

I mean David Walker David Stockman? These guy’s would know something

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_M._Walker_(U.S._Comptroller_General)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Stockman

#165 TurnerNation on 04.06.13 at 4:26 pm

Investors Business Daily (probably the #3 US business paper after WSJ and Barrons) alleges higher US unemployment rate than reported.

It’s the only one I’ll read (hold breath while reading their staunchly pro-war/anti-Obama/pro-Israel editorial pages). Exhale.

According to their chart, here:

http://news.investors.com/economy/040513-650839-hiring-slowdown-to-delay-fed-stimulus-curbs.htm

#166 Contrarian on 04.06.13 at 4:47 pm

#137 AK on 04.06.13 at 1:02 pm

#112 The Prophet Elijah on 04.06.13 at 11:14 am
“In addition, the US has way bigger problems on the horizon, the BRICS trading block is a major threat to US dollar reserve currency. And this is all in the not too distant future.”
——————————————————————–
I have seen a lot of useless propaganda on this Blog, but this one is motherload.
———————————————————
What’s your argument to the contrary?

#167 johnnny on 04.06.13 at 4:55 pm

#141-old man.
Please,let’s hear your take on the meaning.
Interested ,that’s all.
By the way ,I enjoy reading your comments.

#168 johnnny on 04.06.13 at 5:04 pm

Old Man:On Sunday night,I watched Walt Disney,then,Ed Sullivan,then Bonanza.
Does that make me an old man too?

#169 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 04.06.13 at 5:05 pm

Was out driving earlier:

One of our more top REMAX realtors(I know him personally …actually a good guy) had (2) listings up for a while..no bites

Now I see he has an addendum to his “FOR SALE” signs

(i)one sign says that if you you move up his listings(I interpret that as buy a bigger better house ) he will buy your house

(ii)another says that if he doesn’t sell your listed house in 120 days he will buy it.

Yeah yeah…I know it will have all sorts of catches…but I haven’t see those tricks for 30+years.

#170 Old Man on 04.06.13 at 5:18 pm

#168 Jonnny – you really want to get me in trouble don’t you, and suspect you are baiting me for a delete. I will try to expand your imagination a bit, as today those mean young girls in school do texting to tease the boys, but in my day in grade 7 had this girl who showed me too much leg. One day the teacher asked me to come to the blackboard to explain something to the class, and had a hard problem with it all. All the girls were laughing their heads off, and my face was red.

#171 AK on 04.06.13 at 5:33 pm

#167 Contrarian on 04.06.13 at 4:47 pm
“What’s your argument to the contrary?”
#112 The Prophet Elijah on 04.06.13 at 11:14 am
“In addition, the US has way bigger problems on the horizon, the BRICS trading block is a major threat to US dollar reserve currency. And this is all in the not too distant future.”
——————————————————————–
1. The BRICS’ share of the world GDP is around 15%.

2. What does he mean by “this is all in the not too distant future?”

It may have a chance in another 30 years. But I still doubt it.

#172 M on 04.06.13 at 5:35 pm

What I get from this article is the graph :)
What I get from the graph is that starting with 1984 Canadians became…well… not so smart (language please…)
What i get from that is : for a generation – 30 years – Canadians were ..well.. not that smart. That puts it roughly to 2014 give or take… that’s about now :)
What I get from this is that the generation that made Canadians not so smart (watch the language :) ) will continue to be…not so smart after they are out of action (starting just about now).
Economy being essentially a “generational” expression of sorts, it’ll take two generations to repair the damage.

#173 AK on 04.06.13 at 5:38 pm

#165 Stoopid Idiot on 04.06.13 at 4:26 pm
“#137 AK

AKA$$ Whole You wouldn’t know a Mother Load if you stepped in it… or should I say Dr. Wayne ”
——————————————————————–

Maybe you should learn how to spell – A$$HOLE. :-)

#174 johnnny on 04.06.13 at 5:43 pm

Old Man -wrong!I don’t want to get you in trouble.But I will probably get a delete myself!
Are we talking stockings to panty hose transition?

#175 AK on 04.06.13 at 5:53 pm

#165 Stoopid Idiot on 04.06.13 at 4:26 pm
“No disrespect Garth but we constantly hear… “don’t bet against the U.S.” in light of all the post and links there seems to be a lot on denial as to the health of the U.S. economy”
——————————————————————–
In that case, you should stick with your 1.6% GIC’s.

And how many different ID’s is that you are posting under? 14?

You need to get a life.

#176 Loopback on 04.06.13 at 6:03 pm

We are experiencing governments around the world using inflate or die monetary policy, e.g. Japan, UK and US.

The time is fast approaching where prudence requires purchasing hard assets. It will be counter-intuitive for most under the present environment to actually contemplate going into debt and pay off with inflated dollars.

Liquidity will be toast.

Actually it’s the opposite. Worry about deflation. — Garth

Exactly, worry about deflation and the central banks inflate and die policy . . . some history . . . Germany’s inflation crisis of 1923 started with deflation, the German central bank then printed more money. When the German people realized that their money was rapidly losing value, they spent it quickly causing rapid increase in hard asset prices (inflation).

#177 espressobob on 04.06.13 at 6:04 pm

#42 Al Bundy

Good comment. Been using OTA DTV antenna system for a few years. One time expense and no monthly invoice. In fact have stashed all the savings into investments.

Better to own the cable companies.

#178 Contrarian on 04.06.13 at 6:09 pm

Oh come on Garth I know you’re laughing your arse off over that video ;)

#179 Old Man on 04.06.13 at 6:17 pm

There will be another election one day, and Caesar must be thrown out, as you fools who took the bait with the change in mortgage rules and cheap money got sucked into an election play. This was all with intent to boost the GDP, so Caesar and F could brag about how well the economy was doing.

It was all a trap, and you became the pawns in a plan to win an election at all cost, as the people in Canada were sacrificed for political gain and power, as fools to take the bait to borrow debt and stimulate the GDP so they would have bragging rights to bag an election at your expense, and now you will pay the price.

There is a fine line between a mistake and intent with a master plan to con the public; this was with intent to win an election into a majority, and the next time the election comes up get angry and throw these bums out of office with impunity.

#180 Stickler on 04.06.13 at 6:33 pm

#101 Loopback on 04.06.13 at 8:37 am

How can the US be considered in a recovery mode when there are 90 million out of the work

Twelve million, not 90. — Garth

Don’t believe stated 7.6% U3 rate, a more accurate number to measure U.S. unemployment is the 13.7% U-6 rate.
———————-

Don’t confuse unemployment & sovereign debt with corporate health.

This economy is good for stocks, not so good for people.

#181 Andrew on 04.06.13 at 6:37 pm

#21 John Palando

John P we covered this yesterday remember?

“Nosedive”

-Edmonton Real Estate “Pumper” Blog

Something tells me you won’t last long here…

#182 Stickler on 04.06.13 at 6:55 pm

@ #112 The Prophet Elijah on 04.06.13 at 11:14 am

>> agree

#183 Smoking Man on 04.06.13 at 6:58 pm

This character I invented, Smoking Man…..

I’m turning into him, at the tax farm, my spelling is slipping.

My drinking has escalating, I had a cigarette yesterday.

This should be a Hollywood script….

Just saying

#184 Stickler on 04.06.13 at 7:13 pm

@ #139 Joe on 04.06.13 at 1:18 pm

87 Garth….12 million not 90

Shadow stats show that the number of people that are eligible for the labor force is over 90 million.
Also numbers from the January BLS census, show the big picture.
A vast number of Americans have given up looking.
The 12 million accounts for active claims, as soon you are no longer eligible or your claim expires you are removed from the category.
The US recovery is a myth being supported by unsustainable measures and the employment data confirms that.

You are wrong. But believe what you wish. — Garth

The 7.6% unemployment for the US (measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labor force)

The devil is in the details (that most people ignore)

If your benifits expired you are not “unemployed” by this particular definition.

Remember if you mowed your neighbor’s lawn this month, you were “employed”.

XO

#185 Jake on 04.06.13 at 7:20 pm

This is my home ownership plan now with these house prices. Anybody know where I could park one of these in or around Toronto?

http://goodshomedesign.com/cozy-tiny-house-affixed-trailer-secured-permanent-foundation/

#186 NoName on 04.06.13 at 7:30 pm

of topic, but interesting

it didnt take them a long…Now i will think twice before i d-clikc on skype…

http://goo.gl/BVHwU

“Cybercriminals have figured out that distributed Bitcoin
mining is a perfect task for botnets and have started developing
malware that can abuse the CPUs and GPUs of infected computers
to generate Bitcoins.”
___________________________

Facebook vs Apple vs Google… hoppefuly BB will learn something…

http://goo.gl/NT2EC

“Apple’s willingness to favor and advantage a company that is playing
favorites with Apple’s competition may be yet another example of how
Apple’s obsession with competing against Google is hurting Apple.
Facebook Home is obviously a slap in Apple’s face, but it may be acceptable
to Apple because it’s also a punch in Google’s mouth.”

Well played facebook!
_______________________________

Talking about protectionism, monk cant sell wooden coffens.
“It’s not like a wooden box poses a safety hazard to
someone who’s already dead.”

http://goo.gl/s4gxh

The Institute for Justice argued the case for the Benedictine monks
of St. Joseph Abbey, who wanted to sell simple wooden coffins — “casket”
is the prettified word preferred in the funerary trade — the monks have
been making for their own monks for years. To comply with state law,
the monks would have to spend years formally learning the trade and pass
a test from the International Conference of Funeral Examining Boards.
The monastery itself would have to be redesigned to contain a parlor
seating 30 people, a display room for six coffins, an arrangement room
and an embalming room at the cost of thousands of dollars.

#187 Stoopid Idiot on 04.06.13 at 7:30 pm

You must now act to exit the system
Bail-in

(excerpt)

The US has already put in place bail-in-like powers as part of the Dodd-Frank financial reform act passed last year. The law includes a resolution scheme that gives regulators the ability to impose losses on bondholders while ensuring the critical parts of the bank can keep running.
Employees would be paid, the lights would stay on and derivatives contracts would not have to be instantly unwound.

Click here to read the full definition…

http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=bail_in

#188 Stickler on 04.06.13 at 7:30 pm

…PS Canada UI #’s work the same way.

#189 AprilNewwest on 04.06.13 at 7:40 pm

#150 Raginnn – Just who are these people trying to tell us the Canadian market is 10% over valued… more like 50%.

#190 Form Man on 04.06.13 at 7:51 pm

#180 Old Man

I agree

#191 debtors_winners on 04.06.13 at 8:00 pm

In today’s mail:”Bank say No? We say Approved!
1st, 2nd, 3rd…. 101st mortgage for the following categories of borrowers:
– past bankrupt;
– property taxes in arrears;
– no income verification;
– overwhelmed in debt …etc, etc

Will that be considered illegal one day ? Where are those government regulators?

#192 Simple Reader on 04.06.13 at 8:12 pm

About my previous comment: #45

What I had in mind when I requested the comments voting feature was to provide confirmation/support on valuable comments, but from a FINANCIAL POINT OF VIEW. That’s the main reason I come to this blog, and I would expect the majority of the readers to be in my page.

It’s sad to see a few people focusing on “big egos”, “sock puppetry” and “popularity contest” issues (something’s wrong here…) and I don’t think must of the GreaterFool’s readers fall in that profile and that’s why I think voting could help to easily identify the best stuff.

Garth, well… I had to try (I keep my request, at the end it’s up to you. It’s added value. The comments will be all available anyways)

#193 Sam on 04.06.13 at 8:14 pm

I cannot believe it!.. The homes in my area are still selling very fast. I thought for sure things would have been dead in the water by now.. A piece of junk Semi in the (weston rd & sheppard area) now sells for around 400k.. I wouldn’t pay 200k. People have lost all common sense.

#194 AK on 04.06.13 at 8:14 pm

#188 Stoopid Idiot on 04.06.13 at 7:30 pm
“You must now act to exit the system
Bail-in

(excerpt)

The US has already put in place bail-in-like powers as part of the Dodd-Frank financial reform act passed last year. The law includes a resolution scheme that gives regulators the ability to impose losses on bondholders while ensuring the critical parts of the bank can keep running.
Employees would be paid, the lights would stay on and derivatives contracts would not have to be instantly unwound.

Click here to read the full definition…”
——————————————————————-
And your point? Another useless post as usual.

#195 Old Man on 04.06.13 at 8:15 pm

I am waiting for Mr. Turner’s next pic to present which is coming soon, as this stuff is beyond the pale with utter brillance to ponder, and that is what a major in English Literature can do for the mind and soul, as it makes one think deep with all knowledge to survive in the cruel world.

#196 Behavioral Finance on 04.06.13 at 8:34 pm

It is interesting to see that with innovation of securatization of mortgages and the race of interest rates to the bottom home prices started out pacing income gains.

#197 45north on 04.06.13 at 8:58 pm

Mr. Monday Night: a colleague doubled his money on his house in Kelowna, then leaned hard on his daughter to get into the market. She bought not one, but two condos that have been sitting vacant for months. You think she’s not bitter about that? She’s not returning his calls is all I can say.

I tell my children that where real estate favoured me, it won’t favour them.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PYA61HDbUM

#198 Old Man on 04.06.13 at 9:14 pm

#186 Jake – I know all about this stuff and checked out an old location in Cooksville, but looks like you are out of luck. Now the problem in Ontario is that they have laws that are seasonal, but know of one location that one can live in luxury for nothing with hundreds of others, as the best Lawyers in Canada and USA formed a Corporation to hoop the Ontario Government, and to live on this massive property with no capital debt for a good life all year round with everything. Millions have been spent for the good life including a private 9 hole golf course, and so much more. The total annual cost for anything that one would want in life would set you back for about $5,000 a year.

#199 renting and waiting no more on 04.06.13 at 9:19 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/04/05/bc-rbc-foreign-workers.html?cmp=rss

Here’s how you get your dirty money from investing in the banks. If you want to play this game, have at it, but I can’t stomach impoverishing fellow Canadians for the sake of RBC’s burgeoning bottom line.

Boycott RBC.

The story is about ‘dozens’ of foreign workers employed by RBC, which has 80,100 employees. Exaggerate much? — Garth

#200 young & foolish on 04.06.13 at 9:21 pm

It seems you can make money in any RE market … even one which is declining. My friend bought a rental property 2 years ago in downtown TO. Did some renovations to make the place livable and attractive, and moved in tenants in short order. He put down 25k of his own money, mortgaged the rest, and has been collecting 9k clear cash flow two years running.

Risky move?

#201 espressobob on 04.06.13 at 9:29 pm

#154 Rob in TO

Can’t believe the prices in this area? Meanwhile the average worker making peanuts for income in comparison to RE values! Am I missing something?

#202 VanPerfecto on 04.06.13 at 9:37 pm

The American needs to start his/her own blog. Witty and insightful. I do disagree with The Americans long term view of Vancouver. American what is your view on BitCoins as the new storehouse of wealth.

#203 panhead on 04.06.13 at 9:51 pm

#169 johnnny on 04.06.13 at 5:04 pm

Remember – You bet your life? Queen for a day? The panhead engine?

#204 Smoking Man on 04.06.13 at 10:28 pm

194 Sam on 04.06.13 at 8:14 pmI cannot believe it!.. The homes in my area are still selling very fast. I thought for sure things would have been dead in the water by now.. A piece of junk Semi in the (weston rd & sheppard area) now sells for around 400k.. I wouldn’t pay 200k. People have lost all common sense.

………..

I called it, as I always do, crystal ball moment, The Japanese have gone nuts, printing press on over drive… Others will fallow, inflate the debt away….. You don’t got some grass to cut you will lose….

Game has changed, 5 present with 97 present of the loot..

#205 NJ on 04.06.13 at 10:30 pm

@45, I would also love to be able to vote on comments, shows who the real idiots are!

#206 Smoking Man on 04.06.13 at 10:52 pm

Was at the Dave Russell hockey tournament in bramladesh tonight, boys wanted me to play, can’t arthritis big time.. Was talking Hinzeee, Dave dropped back in the day, we keep his memory alive with this torney, all the loot goes to help kids with low income parents play hockey.

Hinzee is a wheel in the unions, gives a shot about the 20 to 30 year Olds who are doomed….. Has harpos ear, let’s see what happens..

Reminiscing we talk about the day when I took out the monster, I cross checked him in the jaw.. I m a smoking man why make the knuckle bleed…

I was the goon back in the day, had hands but no feet…..

Good to see the guys…..

#207 Old Man on 04.06.13 at 11:12 pm

#207 Smoking Man – you have a magnesium deficiency which needs to be topped up with Vitamin D which is a hormone, and go for Cod Liver Oil on that one with a ratio of 400 D to 4000 A once a day. Now with the magnesium go for 400 units a day, or on the cheap throw some epsom salts into a pail of water with near hot water twice a week for a foot bath.

#208 Pantagruel on 04.07.13 at 12:18 am

#208 Old Man on 04.06.13 at 11:12 pm

Persistent image of Smoking Man smoking, sittin on the bathtub edge, patiently waiting with his feet in the epsom pail to draw in the goodness… the red slightly torn bathroom robe not covering enough… (Oh dear God) the cod liver oil bottle on the counter…

I should have went to bed 5 minutes earlier… now it’s gone.

Maybe I should try some http://www.eyebleach.com/ to shake this image.

#209 Tom Vu on 04.07.13 at 12:54 am

Smoking Man:

You have no deficiencies except blood flow above neck area and area where you text from.

#210 The Man From Nantucket on 04.07.13 at 1:29 am

#170 Dr. Hoof – Hearted on 04.06.13 at 5:05 pm
……….I haven’t see those tricks for 30+years.

They were pulling ‘em on me in the dying days of the 80s to 90s run-up. Hometown had a high volume agent that would “buy your home for cash”.

Used to get cold calls all the time from his people.

Them: “We have a buyer for your house”

Me: “Well get your arse over here and present the f—ing offer……if it’s high enough, I’ll sell!” :-)

#211 Dean Mason on 04.07.13 at 1:41 am

I just noticed the last about 3 weeks ago the U.S. 30 year bond was 3.26% and Canada’s 30 year bond was 2.64%. Yesterday, Friday’s close April-5-2013 the U.S. 30 year bond was 2.876% and Canada’s 30 year bond was 2.35%. This is a 38 to 29 basis points drop or 0.38% to 0.29% drop on such already low bond yields in just 3 weeks.

If you look at it in terms of annual interest, on $100,000 bond it is $380 to 290 lost annual interest for 30 years=$11,400 to $8,700 total.So on a large portfolio say $500,000 it is $57,000 to $43,500 total lost interest until 30 year maturity.Talk about making a bad situation worse.

It looks like the same pattern is happening like last year as April comes a long bond yields drop quite a bit until year end. It does not look that interest rates will be rising anything soon. Japan’s QE 1.4 trillion U.S.$ of Japanese bond buying hit Japan’s 30,40 year bond yields from 2.00% 3 weeks ago to 1.22%,1.23%. That is 77 basis points or 0.77%,0.78% on such already low yields.Yikes!

#212 Mithan on 04.07.13 at 2:32 am

No idea what will come, but sales are down 23% in Regina for march. Home starts are up though, so is employment. Rents are still increasing too.

#213 cynically on 04.07.13 at 2:56 am

#156 Dr. Hoof Hearted – David Stockman was Reagan’s economic advisor and was pushing the theory of “trickle down” economics which today he admits was wrong and doesn’t work so maybe he could be wrong again with his extremely negative predictions on the American economy but maybe also all you doomsayers of that sovereign country should have a closer look at what might happen to your colony(your word in #162 but I agree with it). Canada will always catch cold when the US sneezes – remember that!

#214 Charles Ponzi on 04.07.13 at 3:25 am

It might be Autumn rather than Spring in Australia–but the lack of house sales is the same.

Investors and speculators are starting to panic. Real estate agents are looking glum. First home buyers are on strike and smell blood.

After the election,Tony Abbott will reap what his party helped sow and Julia will self sacrifice her entire superannuation for the good of the nation as well as sell all her investment properties at a huge discount and move back to Wales. She sure won’t be welcome in Adelaide after the dust settles and all those baby boomers finally realise that rapidly rising house prices are not good for the long term stability of a nation or an individual’s net worth.

#215 blase on 04.07.13 at 4:30 am

Garth,

That RBC foreign workers story is a huge blunder by RBC and by the government if they let them get away with it. Your comment earlier is way off the mark.

#216 jess on 04.07.13 at 7:34 am

banksters import and export – do they get an education credit?

Economic Policy Institute, October 14, 2010 The H-1B and L-1 Visa programs: Out of Control

Economic Policy Institute, November 19, 2012 STEM labor shortages? Microsoft report distorts reality about computing occupations

U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), Jan 14, 2011 H-1B Visa Program: Reforms Are Needed to Minimize the Risks and Costs of Current Program

ComputerWorld – Fed indictments tell how H-1B visas were used to undercut wages

BusinessWeek – Work Visas May Work Against the U.S.

BusinessWeek – America’s High-Tech Sweatshops

#217 neo on 04.07.13 at 7:46 am

#108JimH on 04.06.13 at 11:02 am
# 104 The American
Excellent post; thanks!
Our growth may be glacial compared to the frothy “boom” times, but growth is growth regardless, and there is no denying the fact that US stimulus policy has worked for most Americans!

Jim and The American and even Garth. Growth is NOT growth. This is the blindspot for the life of me I can’t understand when it comes to Garth. Look at his chart at the end of his blog entry. The growth in housing has been predicated on DEBT the same way the U.S. recovery has with trillion dollar deficits, ZIRP and QE. A recovery can be SPARKED with government stimulus but it has to be SELF SUSTAINING and six years later the stimulus is still all there and it is not self sustaining. It is that simple. With 70% of the economy being the consumer. When their condition becomes robust enough to no longer need ZIRP then a true recovery can begin.

#218 sue on 04.07.13 at 8:21 am

#53 Chickenlittle
Garth is NOT collapsing this all by himself. If you read the newspapers, McLeans, Canadian Business, you would know that. Garth even includes quotes from other experts about the housing melt.

When I hear about wives pressuring to buy, I feel embarrassed to be a woman. Inform yourself and quit being obsessed with appearances and status.

#219 richard on 04.07.13 at 8:46 am

I must be living in a parallel world, houses still selling fast in gta. No signs of discount in houses. Did we lost common sense? or at the end nothing will happen?

#220 drydock on 04.07.13 at 8:47 am

#67 Roy

I have to agree with Roy’s assessment of things.What you would expect from someone who spells loser (l o s e r) and not (l o o s e r).

#221 raginnn on 04.07.13 at 9:37 am

AprilNewwest
Ok the National Post story is not entirely true as it does not reflect the full extent of the housing situation. But its definitely a good start and a big change in direction for the newspapers. They always try to publish propaganda for the RE cartel. Now more sheepie will be aware of the situation as more of the papers change their direction

#222 Small Town Steve on 04.07.13 at 10:11 am

Garth I have been contemplating diversifying into the U.S. via mREIT’s like AGNC,HTS, and CMO(looking into others as well). I won’t be taking large positions maybe 5% for now if at all. Your thoughts on these badboys?

#223 afraidit allmightend on 04.07.13 at 10:12 am

Bwahahahahahahahahahaa! Heres a good one….tax money for training workers for the manufacturing sector……..excuse me…what manufacturing sector?

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/productiveconversations/Forget+cooking+shows+Manufacturing+where+today+grads/8185268/story.html?__lsa=661f-276b

Lets see…..the cod fishery…..lumber? Theres digging up holes for potash and gold…….and a federally subsidized auto sector thats alreay the sunset package and nepotism capital for liberal sympathisers….. one surviving private games designer in Vancouver….and more subsidized things like film making.

Is this another ….’sustainable development’ type shift and grab by the labor unions for peace during the upcoming elections? ’cause there sure ain’t any manufacturing in Canada after the libs gutted the sector back in the 80’s.

I know … all the haters hate places like Texas….but….there is real manufacturing here…..not the manufacturing of idle civic service jobs for new immigrants we see in Canada…..here you drive by plants that are literally one to two miles square……can anyone tell where there is a single factory outside the subsidized auto sector than has any kind of equipment investment in Canada anywhere near this scale?

The only growth sector in Canada has been the artificial jobs created for the civil service and tax rise to support the civic servant.

Tell me otherwise …or this is just another boondoggle to spin tax dollars into the wrong hands…..seriously…. if you ‘train’ to manufacture….then obvious you’re subsidizing areas like Texas where there is manufacturing….because these ‘trainee’s’ sure aren’t going to find work in Canada.

As usual politicians have it arse backwards….and spend money disengeuously……drop the business taxes to zero and get some manufacturing in Canada….then there will be manufacturing jobs in Canada for these so called training programs.

#224 Goldfinger on 04.07.13 at 10:17 am

Looks like no one trusts any ‘experts’ in Vancouver! lol

http://blog.buzzbuzzhome.com/2013/04/most-trustworthy-expert-vancouve-real-estate-market.html

#225 Cow Man on 04.07.13 at 10:22 am

Sir Garth:

#200 Boycott RBC.. You are incorrect Garth. There are 100s of iGate subcontractors, just in the three RBC buildings at Front and Spadina. This is no minor situation.

It’s a private corporation. Can do as it sees fit to maximize shareholder value. RBC still has 80,000 employees, and this is an inconsequential action in that context. — Garth

#226 The American on 04.07.13 at 10:41 am

At #165: Stoopid Idiod, no, YOU need a new source. The “source” you provided is out of date by over 14 months. Like my original post said, you Canadians find one statistic, no matter how out of date, and cling to it as if it were gospel truth. LMAO.

#227 The American on 04.07.13 at 10:43 am

At #203: BitCoins is a joke. No offense to anyone vested there. Will never make it in the global economy because it is based on a “feeling” of which currency is most solid – not actual data. Talk about a nightmare in the making.

#228 rosie "moving backwards" on 04.07.13 at 10:57 am

#200
The article quoted an employee saying that this RBC thing is a pilot project. Looks like the Bank has a few questions to answer.

#229 The American on 04.07.13 at 11:01 am

At #112: Profit Elijah, I beg pardon? LOL Ummm, please show me where the U.S. has returned to loose lending standards? That’s freaking hilarious! The reason is because I currently have an 813 FICO score, crazy cash in the bank, and I’m in process of applying for a conforming home loan. Basically everything is needed from asset statements, proof of income, credit discussion, sign-off on Truth in Lending, and on and on just to secure the PREQUALIFICATION DOCUMENTS. That isn’t even getting the loan. BTW, I work for a bank. 2nd largest global bank in the world. I see day in and day out where the lending standards are, not just within my company, but within the competition as well, and they are significantly tighter lending standards than anything found in Canada today. But go on, please keep drinking your Kool-Aid, and let us all know how that works out for you.

#230 AK on 04.07.13 at 11:34 am

#200 renting and waiting no more on 04.06.13 at 9:19 pm
“Here’s how you get your dirty money from investing in the banks. If you want to play this game, have at it, but I can’t stomach impoverishing fellow Canadians for the sake of RBC’s burgeoning bottom line.”
——————————————————————–
This is a case where RBC is a day late and a dollar short.

BNS and TD had a large portion of their IT outsourced way back in the 1990’s.
Both have been in the process of onshoring for a number of years now due to the fact that it’s no longer economical. It used cost about $100.00 per day back in the 90’s, now it costs close to $400.00 per day, which is not cheap.
This iGate outfit does not sound as reputable as the other outsourcing firms.

#231 AK on 04.07.13 at 11:39 am

#223 Small Town Steve on 04.07.13 at 10:11 am
“Garth I have been contemplating diversifying into the U.S. via mREIT’s like AGNC,HTS, and CMO(looking into others as well). I won’t be taking large positions maybe 5% for now if at all.”
——————————————————————–
I have been holding AGNC for 2 years now. Love the 15% dividend. :-)
Even if rates bump up by 2%, they will do even better. The major risk for the mReits is if rates jump up drastically.

#232 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 04.07.13 at 11:41 am

Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association Annual First-Time Buyer Seminar Attendance Plummets
Posted on 6 April 2013 | 15 Comments

http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2013/04/06/greater-vancouver-home-builders-association-annual-first-time-buyer-seminar-attendance-plummets/

“The Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association presented its 19th annual free seminar for first-time homebuyers in Surrey on March 19. This event is the largest of its kind in North America, drawing aspiring homeowners from virtually all Metro Vancouver municipalities – and beyond.

Attendance over the years has averaged 800. One year, registrations were cut off three weeks before the event, as 900 eager people had already signed up. Last year, attendance dipped to a tad under 600.
This year, despite significant promotion and a top-notch panel of speakers, about 500 prospective first-time buyers registered.

Moreover, an audience head count revealed less than 300 attendees.
Mind you, I believe a number of external factors contributed to the attendance drop – March break, heavy rain, traffic and a Canucks game. Also, it appears the wealth of information available at folks’ fingertips kept some of the registrants at home that night.”

===================================

Translation: This RE turkey is done.
Most seminars are just overly optimistic propoganda.

#233 TurnerNation on 04.07.13 at 11:43 am

Breaking…here’s a picture of ‘Old man’ in his youth. The kids are all right?

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/02/28/careful-what-you-wish-for/

#234 AK on 04.07.13 at 11:46 am

#227 The American on 04.07.13 at 10:41 am
“At #165: Stoopid Idiod, no, YOU need a new source. The “source” you provided is out of date by over 14 months. Like my original post said, you Canadians find one statistic, no matter how out of date, and cling to it as if it were gospel truth. LMAO.”
——————————————————————–
Please do not paint the rest of us Canadians with the same brush.

I as a Canadian, am very embarrassed when I read useless propaganda that is posted by this particular individual.
Then again, it’s not surprising as the name “Stoopid Idiod” says it all.

#235 blok existentialist on 04.07.13 at 12:07 pm

Look no further than ebay for real-life confirmation of the U.S. economy improving.
I have bid on a near-daily basis since last October. Scooped some great deals because few people, especially the Americans, were buying much of anything (outside of gold bugs intent on melting down jewelry). Instead, they were selling at low prices to bring in some extra cash.
That pattern shifted noticeably two months ago. I can no longer buy for dirt cheap. I still check in to see what’s available, but the Americans beat me out on bids every time now. Oh, well. Had fun while it lasted. Guess it’s their turn.

#236 GTA bubble. on 04.07.13 at 12:08 pm

young & foolish on 04.06.13 at 9:21 pm
It seems you can make money in any RE market … even one which is declining. My friend bought a rental property 2 years ago in downtown TO. Did some renovations to make the place livable and attractive, and moved in tenants in short order. He put down 25k of his own money, mortgaged the rest, and has been collecting 9k clear cash flow two years running.

Risky move?
—————————————————————–

You CAN NOT buy anything in Toronto for cash flow positive. Prices have to fall back 30-50% on average just to return back to historical averages. The GTA is grossly overvalued and has only been able to climb so high on cheap and easy credit which has now hit it’s peak. Like we saw with the job report that Canada that we are now losing tens of thousands of jobs as the housing bubble has hit the wall and the crash back down to reality has only just started. Look for a long painful crash as maxed out Canadians lose their houses one by one.

#237 Contrarian on 04.07.13 at 12:09 pm

#230 The American on 04.07.13 at 11:01 am

At #112: Profit Elijah, I beg pardon? LOL Ummm, please show me where the U.S. has returned to loose lending standards? That’s freaking hilarious! The reason is because I currently have an 813 FICO score, crazy cash in the bank, and I’m in process of applying for a conforming home loan. Basically everything is needed from asset statements, proof of income, credit discussion, sign-off on Truth in Lending, and on and on just to secure the PREQUALIFICATION DOCUMENTS. That isn’t even getting the loan. BTW, I work for a bank. 2nd largest global bank in the world. I see day in and day out where the lending standards are, not just within my company, but within the competition as well, and they are significantly tighter lending standards than anything found in Canada today. But go on, please keep drinking your Kool-Aid, and let us all know how that works out for you.
———————————————————-
Please watch Peter Schif here, he predicted the last bubble.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2013/03/21/peter_schiff_fed_never_learns_from_its_mistakes_trying_to_re-inflate_housing_with_monetary_heroin.html

#238 The Prophet Elijah on 04.07.13 at 12:17 pm

#230 The American on 04.07.13 at 11:01 am

At #112: Profit Elijah, I beg pardon? LOL Ummm, please show me where the U.S. has returned to loose lending standards? That’s freaking hilarious! The reason is because I currently have an 813 FICO score, crazy cash in the bank, and I’m in process of applying for a conforming home loan. Basically everything is needed from asset statements, proof of income, credit discussion, sign-off on Truth in Lending, and on and on just to secure the PREQUALIFICATION DOCUMENTS. That isn’t even getting the loan. BTW, I work for a bank. 2nd largest global bank in the world. I see day in and day out where the lending standards are, not just within my company, but within the competition as well, and they are significantly tighter lending standards than anything found in Canada today. But go on, please keep drinking your Kool-Aid, and let us all know how that works out for you.
——————————————————–
We will see it again when the tide rolls out, just like last time.

#239 Stoopid Idiot on 04.07.13 at 12:26 pm

#227 The American

One word… Hedonics… But do as you wish

http://www.ecosystemvaluation.org/hedonic_pricing.htm

http://seekingalpha.com/article/24933-substitutions-and-hedonics-inflation-data-absurdities

#240 Coraline on 04.07.13 at 12:33 pm

Re RBC. The day Garth turned into Kevin O’Leary. I think my time here is done.

Banks are private companies, not public utilities, and have the right to make independent business decisions. They’re highly regulated and constrained, while hugely profitable. They’re also essential to the stability of the entire economy. Smart people have money invested in banks, not deposited with them. The anti-bank meme on this site is anger misplaced. Bye. — Garth

#241 Stoopid Idiot on 04.07.13 at 1:13 pm

It truly is about accountability even on the individual level… Go relax Garth, it’s Sunday

“There is no means by which anyone can evade his personal responsibility. Whoever neglects to examine
to the best of his abilities all the problems involved voluntarily surrenders his birthright to a selfappointed
elite of supermen. In such vital matters blind reliance upon ‘experts’ and uncritical acceptance
of popular catchwords and prejudices is tantamount to the abandonment of self-determination and to
yielding to other people’s domination. As conditions are today, nothing can be more important to every
intelligent man than economics. His own fate and that of his progeny are at stake.”

~Ludwig von Mises

#242 Coraline on 04.07.13 at 1:20 pm

Although heavily regulated, banks are also heavily protected in Canada. It is ridiculous to suggest that they should be exempt from criticism, and apparently the law in this case.

I’m not some timid little GICer. You have a tendency to use the same sledge hammer on everyone when you disagree. But feel free to pretend that we’re all the same in what is sure to be Sunday night’s patronizing post about how the world works, and how we should be thankful because our bank investments are doing well.

I thought you were leaving. — Garth

#243 Grantmi on 04.07.13 at 1:28 pm

Even the NEW home builders are starting to poop themselves!

Circa – South Surrey, Lotusland

http://bit.ly/Z1PgkX

Started off at $1,699,000
Now – $1,450,000 after 3 -4 months

Drop of 1/4 million off original asking price!

“Oooppsiee Daisy!!” – Bill the Butcher

#244 Small Town Steve on 04.07.13 at 1:30 pm

#241 Coraline on 04.07.13 at 12:33 pm
Re RBC. The day Garth turned into Kevin O’Leary. I think my time here is done.
——————————————————————-
Garth is correct, in a free(ish) world you have what is called free association. V.S what you are advocating which is forced association. As private citizens and indeed private companies such as RBC which you are attempting to drag through the mud. They can do what they want and hire who they want as long as they are not infringing on anyone’s individual rights or breaking any laws that they are mandated to follow. You are being racist and a fear monger.

P.S: Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on your way out.

#245 Smoking Man on 04.07.13 at 1:38 pm

#241 Coraline on 04.07.13 at 12:33 pm

Garth is right, banks are a business, you hate Em cause you haven’t figured out how to profit from them.

Your should be directed to Dalton and his likes. Put Ontario in massive dept awarding contracts, wind farms, climate change bs, etc e health…

That where you should focus your anger…. Not a public company that you can buy shares in……

#246 Canadian Watchdog on 04.07.13 at 1:50 pm

Canadian bank employees: domestic vs foreign. Chart

Slave wages are good for Canada according to papa Harper. So shut up and get used to it. This is the new Canada.

#247 Dr. Hoof-Hearted on 04.07.13 at 2:14 pm

Cash-strapped Calif. looks to Chinese investments for ‘plenty of billions’

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/apr/6/cash-strapped-calif-looks-chinese-investments-plen/

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — California Gov. Jerry Brown has designs on building some of the most expensive public works projects in the nation and wants to keep the state moving forward in its slow recovery from the recession.

Where better to go searching for the money to further those interests than the world’s second largest economy and a country that has piles of cash to invest around the globe?

The governor of the most populous U.S. state heads to China next week to begin a weeklong trade mission that he hopes will produce investments on both sides of the Pacific. Brown will lead a delegation of business leaders in search of what he calls “plenty of billions.”

etc. etc.
===========================

Yep, the Fire Sale starts…

#248 Timbo on 04.07.13 at 2:23 pm

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/mexican-wages-have-fallen-below-chinese-levels-president-now-hopes-to-penetrate-chinas-market.php?ref=fpb

“Just a decade ago, Mexico’s prospect of exporting much to China seemed distant. Mexican average labor costs were then almost double China’s.

But a report by a chief economist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch this week estimated that Mexico’s labor costs are now 19.6 percent lower than China’s.”

Good old NAFTA will insure wages go nowhere fast with debt is the only thing holding up asset prices. Print Ben print!!!

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/economic-crisis-hits-the-netherlands-a-891919.html

“The Dutch have long been among Europe’s most diligent savers, and in the crisis many are holding onto their money even more tightly, which is also toxic to the economy. “One of the main problems is declining consumption,” says Johannes Hers of the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) in The Hague, the council of experts at the Economics Ministry.

His office expects a 0.5-percent decline in growth for 2013. Some 755 companies declared bankruptcy in February, the highest number since records began in 1981. The banking sector is also laying off thousands of employees at the moment.”

“1981? You have not seen anything yet….”

#249 jess on 04.07.13 at 2:27 pm

have a lookie

From the Treasure Islands blog:

Courtesy of the Norwegian Business Daily Dagens Næringsliv (dn.no), with thanks to David Officer for the tip, we have this remarkable photograph of the Cyprus company registry. A rough web translation of the caption reads:

“PAPER JUNGLE. The employees at the company inspection register of Cyprus, drowning in documents that should have been public.”
http://taxjustice.blogspot.ca/
==================================
The USCIS report, released Wednesday by U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), indicates that serious violations of the H-1B program by employers are so common that one in five visas are affected by either fraud or “technical violations.” This means that potentially thousands of employers may be violating the rules, some willfully.
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9116758/Widespread_problems_fraud_found_in_H_1B_program

==========
ctv tax me if ya can
lagging indicators
6 years later -106 names no criminal charges and they had the original data !

#250 Jake on 04.07.13 at 2:37 pm

Garth, I don’t think you understand the gravity of the situation. They are bringing foreign workers to replace Canadian workers under the guise of temporary worker, which is only allowed if there are no Canadians available to do the job.

This is outrageous.

____
“We have recently learned of allegations that RBC could be replacing Canadian workers by contracting with iGate, which is filling some of the roles with temporary foreign workers. If true, this situation is unacceptable.

– the office of the minister of Human Resources and Skills Development Canada

Your ‘conservative’ government at work. — Garth

#251 Rob Smith on 04.07.13 at 2:45 pm

“Banks are private companies, not public utilities, and have the right to make independent business decisions. They’re highly regulated and constrained, while hugely profitable. They’re also essential to the stability of the entire economy. Smart people have money invested in banks, not deposited with them. The anti-bank meme on this site is anger misplaced. Bye. — Garth”
——————————————————
Very well said, Garth

I’ve been reading some of the comments in the print media for a while and I see this hate going on for private business, everyone thinks they are entitled to everything and then some, of course more and more government intervention is always the answer to all of these peoples problems.

I watched a great documentary a few days ago called Runaway Slave, something I recommend all to watch.

#252 jess on 04.07.13 at 3:13 pm

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/17/russian-killers-on-streets-of-britain
read more….
Perepilichnyy’s life was considered at risk after he supplied documents to Swiss prosecutors implicating corrupt Russian state officials. His evidence tracked the proceeds of a £144m tax fraud against London-based Hermitage Capital that was uncovered by lawyer Sergei Magnitsky who, after notifying the Russian authorities of the crime, was arrested, tortured and died in police custody.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/30/russian-banker-london-clues-moscow

#253 Old Man on 04.07.13 at 3:30 pm

I am struggling with a sense of conscience, as hear that Caesar is putting up a website to report tax cheats for a 15% finders fee. Know someone who has been banking offshore since 1997 in the medical field that went from one office to ten all under his ownership, and he loved his vacations to the Bahamas. So should I do it, or not?

#254 Humpty Dumpty on 04.07.13 at 3:46 pm

Canadian Watchdog, you seen this yet….

http://www.thedailybell.com/28934/Mises-Has-Won

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/irs-high-tech-tools-track-202006116.html

#255 rosie "moving backwards" on 04.07.13 at 4:05 pm

The RBC thing is a big story. The timing couldn’t be better for the opposition. The manufacturing sector went through this outsourcing situation already. The internet should take care of the rest of the potable middle class jobs moving forward. Blame “the man”.

#256 rosie "moving backwards" on 04.07.13 at 4:07 pm

potable should read portable

#257 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 04.07.13 at 4:07 pm

Banks are not private…possibly de jure ….but not de- facto.

They are simply a no lose bet….that always has the taxpayer as banker of last resort when they extended their gambling in the real world…such as CMHC.

If a business is too big to fail…its not private.

#258 Annie Rined on 04.07.13 at 4:20 pm

That’s right Garth, do you fantasize about the Atlas Shrugged book.

#259 Old Man on 04.07.13 at 4:22 pm

The one thing that burns me up, is that I have never cheated on my taxes ever except with avoidance, and know all about paying cash in the black, as if someone offers me a good or service with cash for a discount will pay, as this has been going on forever so pay the bill when offered. Nothing new here at all, as this was never my intent, but came from them.

I see that $trillions has been banked offshore, and the corporations have been doing this for decades, but individual citizens should not be doing this in Canada, as taxation floats the boat for social programs that benefits us all as a society, and these tax evaders need to be stopped, because they are laughing at you and me who pay our fair share with dignity.

#260 Ralph Cramdown Ⓤ on 04.07.13 at 4:23 pm

It’s a heck of a theory of labour we’ve got here. We import Jamaican farm labourers, Filipina nannies, Chinese coal miners, Mexican coffee pourers and Indian IT workers to do work that Canadians ostensibly won’t, while the Guv bewails the common man’s indebtedness and the Leprechaun lays off more auditors at the CRA. Build more jails and issue a press release telling the proles that we’ve cut the tariffs on their kids’ hockey gear. Hooray! And schedule a Fifteen Minutes of Hate so the proles can complain about the benefits that the government workers still have, which the proles had before they lost the will to fight for them.

#261 Jake on 04.07.13 at 4:23 pm

Your ‘conservative’ government at work. — Garth

___
So you’re OK with all of us being replaced by Indians and Chinese who are willing to do our work 50% off our rate then? There is hardly any job that we can’t bring in foreign workers to train and perform. Bus driver, engineer, doctor, dentist… the list goes on and on.

Meaningless extreme statement. — Garth

#262 Humpty Dumpty on 04.07.13 at 4:28 pm

These commies aint laughing anymore….

Many of China’s top economists are livid at what they view as an effective currency devaluation by Japan and are calling on the People’s Bank of China to retaliate by weakening the yuan to defend itself in what they see as a new currency war.

http://www.scmp.com/news/article/1208127/japan-stimulus-plan-will-start-currency-war-say-china-economists

#263 Humpty Dumpty on 04.07.13 at 4:35 pm

Tom Vu…

heres one for you…

If the Anglos have Hollywood and
the Hindus have Bollywood,
what do the Asians have…

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/04/07/toifa-vancouver-christy-clark-bollywood-dancers-canuck-place_n_3033298.html

#264 Axxman on 04.07.13 at 4:37 pm

If governments decide to inflate their way out of the problem – how does an individual protect against that if you have (like me) everything in financial assets?

Worry about deflation. It’s closer. — Garth

#265 jess on 04.07.13 at 4:39 pm

A new report in the EU Observer, focusing on the EU money laundering body Moneyval

This EU Observer article is worth reading in full: it’s a shocker

http://euobserver.com/justice/119562

job growth in “manipulating the minutiae” For example, “A verb. An imprecise noun. A single sentence in an 876-page statute. …

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/march_april_2013/features/he_who_makes_the_rules043315.php?page=1#.UV1KoYCWK9Q.twitter

#266 Told-you-so on 04.07.13 at 4:42 pm

@#56 Saskatoon-Living

Yeah… minus thirteen with the windchill on April 7th and still 2 feet of snow on the ground. Who wouldn’t want to live in SK?

#267 Julie on 04.07.13 at 5:02 pm

RE RBC hiring out of country with 15% “actual” unemployment in Canada.

1. No…..RBC is NOT a “totally free private company” They are A BANK. Banks are heavily regulated by the govt and must uphold certain standards in order to have “the privilege” of being a lending institution. They are also an oligopoly among a couple other banks.

2. The Govt ALLOWED this to happen. The first line of defense is the CBSA. They would have to be satisfied that “the Govt” is allowing these people into the country to “take away” jobs from “qualified” Canadians.

If anyone is to blame…..its the Govt and CBSA who allow immigrants of any kind into Canada to do work Canadians should be doing. So unless the RBC issue and any other “immigrants taking jobs” issue is LOUDLY opposed by Canadians…..expect any other greedy money company like banks to continue to hire non-Canadians.

Just what I would expect from you. — Garth

#268 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 04.07.13 at 5:19 pm

Might be a good idea to review the US Civil War.

Nothing to do with slavery….it was an economic aggression by Northern bankers.

The South had a domestic labour force, much of the economy agrarian, that was being displaced by slaves and this imported labour cost was cheaper. And no, not all the slaves were black, many in fact were white from Ireland etc.

History is repeating itself with both outsourcing and immigration.

#269 Smoking Man on 04.07.13 at 5:34 pm

As a code smith, I don’t fear offshore competition, I welcome it, I’m pretty good and it’s not about rate, it’s productivity, and support. Your bidding on a job, bid a fixed rate, not hourly…

You will be surprised how many off shore milk you shops will not want to bid this way, they game is to get the client hooked then milk Em dry.

My most lucrative gigs have been fixing and making milkers apps work.

Dearborn Michigan, Ford, needed an app re written had two weeks to finish. They where working with a firm out on bangalore, they where in trouble. the developers where out of there League .

My Bid 50k,would need all my 20 developers(it was just me. Art of lying) on it. They took it. Took my me 3 half days to re doit and finish.. Myself only.

To add to the drama I wait for hour 11 to deliver….

Taking candy from babe’s…….

Bring on the world…. Not afraid.. The more we offshore the more bus I get…..

#270 AK on 04.07.13 at 5:47 pm

#238 Contrarian on 04.07.13 at 12:09 pm
“Please watch Peter Schif here, he predicted the last bubble.”
——————————————————————–
Everyone and their dog predicted the same bubble.

Peter Schiff continues to predict bullshit day in and day out. His track record is atrocious.

#271 Smoking Man on 04.07.13 at 5:47 pm

Further more IT does not only come from India or China, I’m sensing some underling racism, what about code smith’s from London, Nyc..

Banks, Carmaker, just want the stuff done.. When it comes to code smith’s very few can do it well, and a seasoned managers knows it.

The new bread coming on line don’t know shit they add complexity and layers when they should be removing dependency less moving parts.

Hence smoking men saves the day….

#272 Blasé on 04.07.13 at 6:00 pm

many western nations allow foreigners to take jobs and to destabilize the job market, all for the benefit of corporations. if rbc gets away with this, it will be a canary in the coal mine moment. where does it end? with thousands of canadians without jobs while foreign IT runs our infrastructure? we’ve already allowed Vancouver to be sold to the Chinese, literally pricing people with real jobs out of their own city so that Rich foreigners can get healthcare and education from Canada. now Harper has cleared the way for corporations to auction Canadian jobs to the lowest bidder. we are a nation that has exchanged easy credit at the expense of our birthright. there won’t be much left after Harper gets through with us. no eastern nation would ever be allowed to sell its people down the river like Harper has. how does he sleep at night?

#273 Blasé on 04.07.13 at 6:04 pm

smoking man, if you truly spent time overseas you would know what racism really is. this is not racism, this is self-preservation, pure and simple. allow Canada to be auctioned off to the lowest bidder? Mexico has a lower avg wage than china does. free trade had really worked out well eh? clue in man. we have a birthright, whether you want to give it away for the benefit of corporate profits.

#274 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 04.07.13 at 6:16 pm

Its not racism…… its called ” Cultural Marxism.”

GOOGLE it.

What the hell do people think the last (2) World Wars were about…hine: “Economic wars “

#275 Rob in TO on 04.07.13 at 6:17 pm

#202 espressobob
RE: #154 Rob in TO

“Can’t believe the prices in this area? Meanwhile the average worker making peanuts for income in comparison to RE values! Am I missing something?”

espressobob,

I re-read my post and there was no mention of me ‘not believing the prices in this area.’ Fact is that I do, it’s been going on for a very long time.

There are many different pockets in this city that vary in value and quality. Sure, real dumps can be gotten for well UNDER 100K. There are places listed for under 60K, imagine the area and the condition of them…not a place anyone would want to raise a young family, or even live in one of them alone. That’s just the way is has always been.

My point was that RE prices are insane.

If at the super high end of the market, it is irrelevant to most of those that buy because they happen to be rich (or pretend to be) and money is no object.

At the low end of the market, these are people that would rather own than rent, even if it means living (existing) in slums. It has always been the American/Canadian – much of the world really – dream to own homes, SFH’s or whatever. I can’t say that I blame them.

I fully sympathize with anyone that has worked hard all their lives and just want to live that dream.

Not many can pull in the ridiculous amounts of money like big company CEO’s, celebrities, the inherited idle rich, etc. That will never change.

“The average worker making peanuts for income” used to be 1 tenth of what CEO’s of big companies earned way back when. I read recently (if that is true) that CEO’s nowadays make 400% more than the average worker in the U.S., if they are “lucky” enough to even have a job. That’s a huge spread, unjustifiable in any way. They are the 1%, 2% and so on.

Who said life was fair?

I don’t think you are missing anything.

#276 Pr on 04.07.13 at 6:32 pm

Looking at this graphic makes me sad. Such a nice place to live before this bubble. If it corrects and stabilize , price vs salary, the pain for some family, will be immense.

#277 Annie Rined on 04.07.13 at 7:24 pm

Hey people, alot of you seem upset by this stuff, why don’t we do something about it ?

#278 Old Man on 04.08.13 at 2:25 pm

Well they are here again, as live in a pathic apartment building that is being turned into a 5 star hotel inside, and love my modest penthouse paying rent on the cheap. First it was the doors, and now the walls are being covered in expensive vinyl wallpaper; next will be the new exclusive carpeting.

I must admit that this makeover looks oh so good, but suspect the landlord is going to pull a fast one by going to the rent review board asking for a large increase in rent to pay for all these additional expenses that were not necessary in the first place. Time will tell if there is a hidden agenda, as will not be gamed or conned.

#279 Need Sleep on 04.08.13 at 4:22 pm

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/March-calmness-in-resale-homes-market-201945251.html

Sales down 26% in Winnipeg from March 2012 to March 2013. Worst number of monthly sales in March since 1994/95 and realtors are describing it as a ‘calm’ month. Average price is down 5% in south Winnipeg since the peak last year.

#280 rosie "moving backwards" on 04.08.13 at 4:45 pm

The “Red Star” blathering about foreign workers. Thing is, most of the jobs cited are beneath Canadians, at least at the pay levels offered. http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/03/22/jim_flahertys_dirty_little_jobtraining_secret_walkom.html?app=noRedirect