When bulls croak

over

They listed their fashionable, almost-new condo in one of Toronto’s hottest hoods ten days ago. Priced forty thousand less than the last sale in the building, and it’s on a higher floor with an extra parking spot. It should have sold in a weekend. But, crickets.

“Three showings,” says Sharon. “No action.” She slumped in her chair. How could this be happening?

Easy. There are current more than 6,000 condos on MLS in the godless GTA today. A thousand or so more on Craigslist and Kijiji, and the men’s room wall in the Bloor station. Plus twenty thousand unsold, vacant, unlived-in new units. Oh yeah, and thousands more in pre-sales. So, close to 30,000 condos to buy, and yet only 1,260 buyers last month. And it’s Spring, with 2.74% mortgages. Yikes.

This is a disaster in the making. For Sharon, though, it’s already here. She and Pete have to sell and move to chase a great job in Boston. They’ve one month to find a greater fool, and yet there’s thirty months’ worth of competition.

Yesterday brought all of the confirmation you should need of where this is headed. Real estate sales plunged in Canada’s biggest market, pacing tumbles in Vancouver, Victoria and even the beginning of the end in Cowtown. Equally distressing for the few bulls still left standing, the realtors had to lie about things.

The Toronto Real Estate board announced 7,765 transactions in March, “down 17 per cent compared to 9,385 transactions in March 2012.” But last March there were actually 9,690 sales, according to the same guys one year ago. That’s a drubbing of 19.9%, showing how much fun realtors can have with numbers. (Apparently an astonishing 305 deals, worth more than $19 million, never closed last March. That seems like a story on its own.)

Meanwhile sales in Vancouver crashed another 18%. They were down 15% in Victoria. In the suburban Lower Mainland, off by 20%. Even in Calgary, single-family home sales fell 6%, with realtors citing a lack of listings which is one step up from blaming rutting season. Even the Vancouver board’s famous Frankenumber, which is always supposed to go up, fell by 4%. In Toronto, condo sales sank 18% and single-family home deals were reduced almost 22%.

Let’s recap. It’s Spring. Five-year fixed-rate mortgages are available at 2.74%. You can still buy a house with 5% down. Banks will still shower you with money. Your mom still really wants you to do this. Sharon will crater her asking price for you and throw in her see-through Lululemon pants. So, what gives?

This tired bull is finished. Of course, all real estate is local and Mississauga’s not Burnaby, but the writing is on the wall everywhere. It says, “risk.”

The price crumble now hitting the Mouldy City and the rest of the wet coast, also impacting the Maritimes and most of Quebec, will be a reality everywhere as 2013 plays out. Remember, this is the peak season, the strutting, hormone-fueled moment of supreme prowess for the housing market. With cheap money and warming rays, it doesn’t get any better than this. And still, buyers have faded and the headlines turned nasty. Debt, real estate ennui and granite saturation have taken their toll. If your property was your retirement nestegg, I sure hope you bailed last year, or that your horny kid didn’t buy a condo in 2011 with 5% down.

Finally, why have prices in T.O. not started to rot, as in Van? The average is now up a little over 3% year/year.

Statistically, with an 18% collapse in sales of lower-priced condos, and continued action in the sub-million SFH category, the average and median price can still rise on reduced volume. In fact, that’s pretty much a hallmark of the final stages of a croaking bull – a phenom well-documented before the last epic tumble in the early Nineties. (By the way, it took 14 years for prices to recover. Gulp.)

Beyond that, sellers afraid prices are tanking have simply let their listings run out. The number of detached houses for sale has withered, which has perversely sparked bidding wars among the lusty buyers who remain, especially in traditional 416 demand areas. It’s not uncommon for a semi in Leaside with a mutual drive and an addition made of cornflakes and duct tape, tastefully covered in creamy stucco, to sell for $100,000 over its $900,000 ask. It doesn’t take many of those fin-de-siècle sales to skew the numbers.

Besides, the realtors lie anyway.

191 comments ↓

#1 Sockeyemoon on 04.03.13 at 9:15 pm

Maybe the bitcoin revolution will save us all.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/03/bitcoin-currency-bubble-crash-not-rocking-financial-markets

Or is this an April Fools joke…

#2 Toronto_CA on 04.03.13 at 9:17 pm

Great post tonight, Garth. I really think that comparison of unadjusted current numbers to adjust prior year numbers needs to be exposed in a MSM article. Audited Financial Statements would never get away with comparing prior year numbers under a different calculation method. Why should “Realtors”? I’d love for a Realtor ™ who posts here to explain why this is allowed?

#3 notanexpert on 04.03.13 at 9:17 pm

First!!!

#4 Scott in Gibsons on 04.03.13 at 9:18 pm

What, no bullish comments on the markets or US economy today?

Why? Nothing changed. Other than gold getting clobbered. — Garth

#5 chickenlittle on assignment on 04.03.13 at 9:19 pm

I guess we will have to wait until the end of the year to see how this plays out….I will be hitting the open houses very soon!! I love window shopping…

#6 guelphstudent on 04.03.13 at 9:20 pm

For now it is so much better to rent. Me and my gf are enjoying a 900sq feet loft just for 1400$ on lakeshore.

And by the way, sales have crashed by over 40% in some areas of Toronto like York Ville according to this heat map

#7 Johnny B. Goode on 04.03.13 at 9:20 pm

THIRD???

#8 Timing is Everything on 04.03.13 at 9:20 pm

Garth. It’s ‘stiffer, longer and wider’…and has a stripe.
Amazon certified?!

http://tinyurl.com/dxvhmt7

#9 Kessel on 04.03.13 at 9:20 pm

Still renting and waiting.

#10 Wind on 04.03.13 at 9:21 pm

Fiiiiiiirst

Not even close. Go away. — Garth

#11 Devore on 04.03.13 at 9:22 pm

It would seem winter never ended for Canadian real estate this year. Unless the feds can pull a rabbit out of the hat asap, it will be some dark days for our economy over the next few years.

#12 Notta Sheeple on 04.03.13 at 9:23 pm

“……..Besides, the realtors lie anyway……”
========================

Probably the most factual statement in the entire blog.

#13 Godth on 04.03.13 at 9:25 pm

I was in a pub in Vic. last week sitting at the bar. The bartenderess starts talking about how she just bought a condo and can watch the construction take place from behind the bar at work. She’s talking to an older woman a couple stools down who’s being very enthiustiastic for her. I can feel my hair beginning to smolder listening to this vapid lunacy. At some point I chime in that real estate is crashing. The older woman looks at me and tells me “it’s a great time to buy” and points triumphantly at the younger woman behind the bar. I respond with “maybe in five years it will be”. The younger jumps in and says “thats my mom and we don’t want to talk about politics”. I sipped my beer in silence.

#14 Joe on 04.03.13 at 9:26 pm

Housing prices dropping in N Korea.

#15 Canadian Watchdog on 04.03.13 at 9:26 pm

A time bomb in the Canadian financials?

In my recent post about the Vancouver property market (see Is the secular bull market in Vancouver RE over?), I speculated out loud that a couple with 200K in annual income and 20% down payment could afford a house in the $1.0-1.2 million range, when Vancouver westside houses that aren't falling apart are trading at $2 million and up. These calculations suggested that the clearing price, in the absence of foreign buyers, would be substantially lower from current levels.

I have since had various discussions with mortgage brokers and realtors that indicated that my $1.0-1.2 million estimate is too low. It was suggested to me that a couple with 200K in annual income and 20% down could afford a $2.0 million home.

At first I couldn't figure out how this could happen. Using a standard mortgage calculator, assuming a 3% mortgage rate for mortgage with a 25 year amortization, I got a monthly payment of $7571, or roughly 91K a year. How could a couple with 200K pre-tax income manage with those kinds of numbers? How would they eat? Even assuming a 2% mortgage rate, I got mortgage payment of 81K a year – still a bit of a stretch for our hypothetical couple with 200K pretax income.

HELOCs to the rescue
After chatting with a couple of realtors, they revealed to me the answer: These people aren't financing their purchases with mortgages. They are financing their entire debt load with Home Equity Lines of Credits (HELOCs), which offer the "flexibility" of being secured, floating rate, interest-only loans!

—-

The charts:

Need cash for down payment?

Have enough home equity and want to speculate some more?

#16 Ydnew on 04.03.13 at 9:26 pm

A realtor’s sign says: “Listings low, demand high”.
Where? Not here.
Listings are double what they were last year and sales are slower. Properties in desirable areas and properly priced sell in days, but your basic cookie cutter dwelling, especially those FSBO, languish on the market.
Go to Timmie’s and you hear the truth. Open houses, reduced prices and still no sale are the new normal. Sad.

#17 blase on 04.03.13 at 9:28 pm

edit: there are CURRENTLY more

#18 TO RE Home sales numbers dissected on 04.03.13 at 9:28 pm

TO RE Home sales dissected:
http://recharts.blogspot.ca/2013/04/torontos-re-market-missed-spring-start.html

There is a slight difference between their numbers for the three categories (detached, semi and townhouses) and my numbers but with 1412 sales counted we are withing the statistic margin for 1% error so my umbers are good enough to show you what is going on behind their average numbers.

PS: Garth please let me know if you want me to stop posting these here. I believe that they are useful and people need to know day by day what is going on on the RE market in To these days.

#19 Godth on 04.03.13 at 9:29 pm

Ah forgot to mention her mom is in real estate. Sigh, shrug. Perhaps they have a bankruptcy lawyer in the family.

#20 good times on 04.03.13 at 9:29 pm

Real estate is a sore subject. Everytime I mention that I fully expect prices to go down.. I get a resounding no… people just don’t want to believe that it’s not different here.

#21 Kessel on 04.03.13 at 9:32 pm

Garth do you think the Feds are getting nervous and will reverse course? This will have severe economic impacts. Everybody I know has been living off their line of credit.

No. — Garth

#22 The Prophet Elijah on 04.03.13 at 9:33 pm

I don’t know guys, I’m still seeing sold signs on Calgary properties regularly. I just bought and the value seems to be holding.

#23 Yolo on 04.03.13 at 9:35 pm

Vancouver is where you send money to die. Real estate in that city is destined for a climactic death. Values will plummet to nothing very soon as would be equity farmers soon discover that no one in Scamcouver is left to buy except idiots. Vancouver is a joke, and headed for a complete ruining death. Don’t buy anything in Vancouver. It’s headed down the toilet. FIRST!!!!!!!!

#24 good times on 04.03.13 at 9:35 pm

Realtors on FB trying to scare people from putting money greater then 100K in Canadian bank accounts… the money is safer in real estate… predicting a cyprus style problem here.

Link? — Garth

#25 Stomper on 04.03.13 at 9:36 pm

#13 – When Taxi-drivers and bar staff start to proffer investment advice it’s time to head for the exit.

It’s going to end in tears!

#26 Toon Town Boomer on 04.03.13 at 9:36 pm

Here’s a good one.

http://saskatoon.kijiji.ca/c-real-estate-houses-for-sale-Breathtaking-Fixer-upper-in-friendly-neighbourhood-W0QQAdIdZ469844435

#27 Tom Vu on 04.03.13 at 9:37 pm

I have hard wired my investment portfolio to Smoking Old Mans Camel Wing /Bat’s Toe algorithms.

+/- the Blue Jays record.

Amen

#28 Mister Obvious on 04.03.13 at 9:37 pm

A few weeks back I reported that a block’s worth of SFH’s on south Granville street in Vancouver were boarded up and looked ready for the bulldozer.

Today I drove past again. An entire block on the east side of Granville at 46th is now a complete moonscape. (Further north on the same side of the street, more SFH’s appear ready for demolition).

The heartbreaking thing is the trees they took down. Lots of mature healthy conifers are gone. Pummeled into splinters. That’s the price of progress, I guess.

BTW, residential construction still seems to be booming here in ‘the city that mould loves’.

At least, to my untrained eye.

#29 Tim on 04.03.13 at 9:42 pm

DELETED

#30 Kessel on 04.03.13 at 9:44 pm

I’ve been renting for a year now and I’ve had to endure my wife complaining everyday- “I want my own house”

#31 Godth on 04.03.13 at 9:48 pm

@Stomper 20
On a previous occassion she was proudly discussing her $1000.00-$1500.00 a month clothing purchases. I hope those $500.00 dollar jeans work out for her. Priorities and values to live by.

#32 dosouth on 04.03.13 at 9:49 pm

Grab your toboggan and c’mon over to Whistler….. Prices plummet like the Peak express run – woohoo!!

http://tinyurl.com/dxt4x9w

#33 Smoking Man on 04.03.13 at 9:50 pm

Almost a daily real estate bashing by MSM now for almost a year , 20 days on market, sold. Price up 3 precent. tighter mortgage rules………………

The nuber 1 rule in all business,trading, buying and selling, supply demand.

The bubble head looks at what happend down south oh it will happen here..But fail to factor in Supply and demand.

GTA SFH solid….Condos=Screwd…….

All those fence sitters who could have bought in 2009 2010, are now 10 years behind. The looked south rather than evalute supply and demand.

They bet wrong.

Just like I did trading forex yesterday, I did not follow my rules, or my model, I had no dicipline, my mostorus ego took over. Some chump chirped my on here saying my super human skill was luck. Well I sure wanted to show him……

I acted agaist the herd, put a trade between the Bat and the Camel Toe. It went aginst me, so I doubled down. then quadrupled down….The worced thing a trader can ever do…..

Damn at 2 in the morninng while sleeping my 4 bet was liquidated. Huge loss.

Why did this happen, Its one thing to alpha male with an fearfull addiance…and an other do it while trading.

I’m an idiot, new rule, never let ego get in the way of making money………..I did that with YLO two years ago.

Thats twice smoking man, time for Vitamin B12

#34 MaestroGarthIAmNotWorthy on 04.03.13 at 9:57 pm

Hi Garth, great blog post, most insightful. My wife and I aill mobe to Montreal early May, and are looking to rent a condo somewhere near or in downtown. Do you have, or can you point me to, any statistics on the Montreal downtown condo market? Much appreciated!

#35 Freedom First on 04.03.13 at 9:58 pm

Feel bad for Sharon. Though I am glad my ETF R.E.I.T.’s pay me a yield of 5% and have done nothing but go up in value since I bought them. Keep in mind though, I have a couple of personal diversification rules, and I follow Garth’s formula closely as to fixed income/cash- versus other investment assets. I stay close to a 10% limit per asset, and don’t exceed 20% in any one sector, and have a minimum of 5% per investment, and I detest debt, but will use it extremely short term to make a variety of adjustments. Going “all in” in any one asset is never to be an “idolized/adored/revered” behavior, or as a positive action, ever, but to be seen only as an act of insanity. No exception.

#36 Musty Basement Dweller Wannabe on 04.03.13 at 10:01 pm

I wonder what Brad Lamb would calculate Sharons projected profit on her condo at. Maybe if he logs on to the blog here today he could comment.

Well I sold my house in Nanaimo. As soon as I clean the mould off of the bottom of the windows (and a few other places) I will be clear to look for a rental place. It feels good. It was an OK investment over the last 10 years but it is time to move on.

The stigma against renters is fascinating. It’s been a while since I have been one but I already sense people looking at me like a second class citizen when I tell them I am going to rent. It doesn’t bother me in the least, actually gives me quite a sense of pleasure knowing the freedom and rewards to be realized. There is tons of nice stuff for rent.

#37 Rob Smith on 04.03.13 at 10:02 pm

18 Tom Vu on 04.03.13 at 9:37 pm

I have hard wired my investment portfolio to Smoking Old Mans Camel Wing /Bat’s Toe algorithms.

+/- the Blue Jays record.

Amen
———————————–

bad idea Mr. Vu, smoking man lost his shirt today.

Not only is his real estate business crumbling but so is his stock trading gimmick business, you had a better gig going, at least you had some girls in your circle.

#38 Toon Town Boomer on 04.03.13 at 10:03 pm

Realtor trying to supplement income.
Rehttp://www.thestarphoenix.com/news/saskatoon/Realtor+charged+with+living+avails+prostitution/8180012/story.html

#39 Tripp on 04.03.13 at 10:04 pm

@ #15 Canadian Watchdog

“How could a couple with 200K pre-tax income manage with those kinds of numbers?”

The even bigger question is how many couples make that money in Vancouver or any large city in Canada? Some numbers could be found here http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/subject-sujet/subtheme-soustheme.action?pid=3868&id=2812&lang=eng&more=0

#40 Bottoms_Up on 04.03.13 at 10:05 pm

Funny pic Garth, a common reality that is likely 50 years away (minus the wires though).

On another note, 80 yr old mother sues son for 2/3′s of proceeds of CHEO lottery dream home win:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/calgary/CHEO+Dream+Lifetime+lottery+nightmare+Kemptville+family/8059543/story.html

#41 VanPerfecto on 04.03.13 at 10:07 pm

Vancouver is solid long term.
BitCoin is the new gold standard. Get hip and get up to date on BitCoin. Biggest returns and the future. Vancouver and BitCoin going higher. The old guard has fallen.

#42 AK on 04.03.13 at 10:08 pm

#3 notanexpert on 04.03.13 at 9:17 pm

“First!!!”
——————————————————————–
Well, not quite first. But your effort has not gone unnoticed.
Courtesy of Richard, you win this machine? I believe it’s a car built in 1900 or something like that?

Enjoy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=–LVpA5UdGM

#43 Shawn on 04.03.13 at 10:10 pm

Restating the Past

Toronto_ CA said:

Audited Financial Statements would never get away with comparing prior year numbers under a different calculation method.
************************************

Actually it is done all the time.

On occasion they will even have an opening book value of equity that is lower than the closing book equity of the prior year. This is a prior period adjustment posted directly to retained earnings.

Apparently is a nano-second just after mid-night on December 31, but strangely still a mano-second before the new year starts where a big loss can happen which gets charged to opening retained earnings and NEVER appears in the earnings statement of any year.

Another great place to hide these kind of losses is in accumulated other comprehensive earnings. Losses can go here an never show their ugly faces in “net income”. Actually I agree with that accounting but one should just be aware of it.

Also when it comes to non-GAAP numbers it is not unusual to add back a one time loss this year to the adjustment but to “forget” to do that the following year. i.e in Non-GAPP figures 2011 was $90 plus add back an usual loss of 10 = $100. But in 2012 the 2011 non-GAAP number becomes just the $90 forgetting that it was called $100 last year and voila 2012 of say $99 was 10% better than 2011 instead of the more accurate 1% worse. Most companies don’t do this but a few certainly do.

#44 raginnn on 04.03.13 at 10:20 pm

What happened to Canada’s economic miracle?

Read all about it here:

http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/04/02/and-canadas-stuck/#more-366467

#45 Paully on 04.03.13 at 10:20 pm

I think that a lot of people fail to see that if the condo market at the low end sees volume fall off substantially while the mid to high priced SFH keep selling, then the “average price” must move higher. That is not based on the prices actually rising, but the higher relative amount of high-priced home sales in the overall average. I believe that we are experiencing this right now in TO. It’s simple math.

#46 PennyDon on 04.03.13 at 10:21 pm

What? Realtors lie? I just heard the reason that sales were down in March was because Good Friday was in March this year , last year it was in April. Now I don t know what to believe!

#47 Realtors , Bankers , Mortgage brokers and now Canadian government in an all out PANIC! on 04.03.13 at 10:25 pm

“The Toronto Real Estate board announced 7,765 transactions in March, “down 17 per cent compared to 9,385 transactions in March 2012.” But last March there were actually 9,690 sales, according to the same guys one year ago. That’s a drubbing of 19.9%, showing how much fun realtors can have with numbers. (Apparently an astonishing 305 deals, worth more than $19 million, never closed last March. That seems like a story on its own.)”

The majority of realtors are useless shameless criminals who should be locked up in jail for financial crimes against humanity. LIARS LIARS LIARS. No wonder realtors are hated around the world.

#48 Tabernaq! on 04.03.13 at 10:25 pm

#34 – there is very litle information on the Montreal housing market being discussed in blogs. The Montreal condo makrket is in big troubles, so my friends, but I do not know how true that is. Maybe someone else here can provide some uptodate stats, tabernac! – Luc

#49 Naga on 04.03.13 at 10:28 pm

Garth even though I have agreed that Condo sales and prices will correct – I am still surprised that you are not coming clean with the facts on SFH – especialy as it relates to the GTA.

I have my own persoanl examples of 2 very recent sales in south Etobicoke that went higher than asking – both old bungalows on 40 ft lots and both sold for close to $500k but were asking $450kish. Means shit – same way a few of your examples showing Condos on market longer than normal – but what is normal – I suggest that we should use an average over a 20 year period as a minimum so that means that normal listing periods would be on average 60 to 90 days. Personally I predict that SFH in GTA will hold their levels for reasons that I have shared in prior posts…..but with free mortgage money what is the issue?

The other fact that you are not addressing is supply for SFH. Both in my area and across most of GTA listing for SFH are way down even for this time of year and what is out there is either brand new (in old hoods) or old and in need of knockdown or serious makeover. The development freeze outside the GTA has been creating a supply imbalance for some time.

I do agree that in this environment of high relative prices it is not a good time for RE investing – but for many – owning RE it is NOT an investment – it is a need.

Equity markets both TSE and US ones have done well in the last 3 years and will continue to do so in the next few years – main reason low interest rates – which are here to stay for a few more years – altough markets will continue to be very volatile – reality is that they are not much higher than they were back in 2000 – so the next Bull cycle is upon us or ready to get going.

I will also disagree with you on mutual funds. For someone starting out with a few $ they should be considered as it is a good way to accumulate financial assets. The bottom line is the total returns and not just MERs…there are a number of very good Funds that produce consistent distribution that if reinvetsed can outperform most ETFs – another way of forced savings as cost of purchasing ETFs in small amouts can add up in trading fees.

Anyway – just thought I would remind you/all of us that the reasons for inventing statistics is so that anyone could lie and not be called a liar – or at least use those stats that are more convenient to support their own beliefs or agenda – which BTW I think your is to just stir the shit – be a contrarian – and make people think about life and values.

For the rest of us – life is about staying positive, enjoying it and take risks without which there are no rewards….and if when we retire and run out of savings who cares we can look back and think all day and night about what we did all day and night in our younger days.

#50 Smoking Man on 04.03.13 at 10:33 pm

#37 Rob Smith on 04.03.13 at 10:02 pm

One thing about me,

I love to share my success and love sharing my fails, thats how one learns, Its ok to lie to people, but never to ones self. I take all the credit for my wins, but blane no one for my mistakes. I evalute them, and try not to repeat.

It’s called a self education proccess. Thats how I learn, not from teachers. They don’t no shit.

#51 kevin on 04.03.13 at 10:35 pm

Garth, Do you have any comments on bitcoin?

Why would I? — Garth

#52 Smoking Man on 04.03.13 at 10:39 pm

#46 PennyDon on 04.03.13 at 10:21 pm
What? Realtors lie? I just heard the reason that sales were down in March was because Good Friday was in March this year , last year it was in April. Now I don t know what to believe!
………………………………..

Your an idiot, everyone one lies, everyone spins, its called business. funny, they don’t teach that at MBA school..what a waste of money.

Why are people so stupid???????????

#53 :):( Ying Yang on 04.03.13 at 10:42 pm

Smoking Man better days ahead. Forex is for the Super Man, you will need to consult with Yoda about next move. Hint “Take the next few days off of Forex” Put on some of you’re Floyd come back next week.

#54 Fort Mac Flatlander on 04.03.13 at 10:47 pm

Hello Garth and fellow Blog Dogs,

Would it be possible to avoid a scew in the numbers by comparing total dollar value sales to total dollar values sales of the same month from the year before? This should really display the sh!t hitting the fan.

#55 dave99 on 04.03.13 at 10:48 pm

If you look at the YOY changes in Detached GTA sales, the sub-$400k bracket is down 30%, the $4-700k bracket is down 20%, and the +$700 bracket is down 10%.

Adjust for the shift in product mix and GTA detached prices are actually down 2% YOY (not up 4%).

Note that GTA detacheds represent 50% of the market.

Strangely, the same product shift hasn’t happened in the non-detacheds segment, where sales are down 20% uniformly across price brackets.

In total, adjusting for the product shift, prices are at 0% (unchanged YOY) for GTA (ie down 2% net of inflation).

#56 Fort Mac Flatlander on 04.03.13 at 10:51 pm

#4 Scott in Gibsons
What, no bullish comments on the markets or US economy today?

Why? Nothing changed. Other than gold getting clobbered. — Garth

As Garth says buying risk is lowered as prices fall. Gold is a good insurance to inflation, however bullion should be a minor portion of precious metals exposure. I’m heavy precious metals, but bullion is only 5% weighted to my total portfolio.

#57 Smoking Man on 04.03.13 at 10:55 pm

If you walk the earth thinking that lying is bad, honesty makes you good, having no agenda to scam and take your piece of the pie is not good.

You my friend are an idiot.

For life is a game of survival, the goal should always be between 9 to 5, I want to eat at the feast, live in luxury, and don’t want to break a sweat.

If you disagree with that you can work for me any time….

#58 observer on 04.03.13 at 10:58 pm

Its like the king who wore no clothes.

Once the little boy shout, why is the king wearing no clothes. People began to realized they been con and the word spread and spread.

The little boy is say, OMG, who would pay these ridiculous prices for a cockroach and mice infested dump. People are beginning to realize for a million anywhere else in the world you can get a real nice place and not a fix me upper dump!

#59 Smoking Man on 04.03.13 at 10:59 pm

#51 :):( Ying Yang on 04.03.13 at 10:42 pm

Obiously you know me, and Yoda, to funny…..

#60 When bulls croak — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate | The Affluent Boomer™ on 04.03.13 at 11:00 pm

[...] They listed their fashionable, almost-new condo in one of Toronto’s hottest hoods ten days ago. Priced forty thousand less than the last sale in the building, and it’s on a higher floor with an extra parking spot. It should have sold in a weekend. But, crickets. Continue reading → [...]

#61 Bartlebee on 04.03.13 at 11:03 pm

What about Kelowna?? Don’t hear you say much about Kelowna specifically these days! The market seems very tight for good homes under 600k. Sold signs everywhere. I know the higher end and condos are struggling. Where do you see things heading?
Thanks

#62 observer on 04.03.13 at 11:05 pm

15 Canadian Watchdog on 04.03.13 at 9:26 pm

A time bomb in the Canadian financials?
==================

That right, its like Obama’s plan, pay off your debt with no debt or when no one wants to buy your treasuries.

Because Housing has been going up up and up for the past few years, People can continue to extract more and more out using their home equity as a bank machine, usually “RED LINING ” their allowable debt. But what happens when house equity goes down. OOPs, will the banks start making some phone calls and force these guys to pay up?

#63 GTA Girl on 04.03.13 at 11:08 pm

A group of investigative journalists are ready to release full list of very rich people worldwide who’ve hidden money offshore. in this list is 450 Canadians have stashed money in offshore bank accounts .

They’ve already outed the husband of a Canadian Senator who lied on his tax filings about his stashed millions.

Tonight, many very greedy people are calling their lawyers heading off the scandal, scorn and CRA.

I’d imagine more than a few of them are RE developers who have been dealing with some dirty foreign investors.

Dear people, it’s not worth it to hide money. Not worth the years of headaches, legal bills ahead. Get a good tax lawyer, accountant and a trusty team. Find govt loopholes and all things legal. Just pay your GD taxes.

#64 GTA Girl on 04.03.13 at 11:09 pm

http://www.icij.org/offshore/secret-files-expose-offshores-global-impact

#65 Small Town Steve on 04.03.13 at 11:13 pm

Smoking Man Stick to your plan!!
Regardless of what “system” a day trader/forex trader uses the BIGGEST reason people get clobbered is when they start trading outside their set of personal rules they follow. If the batman/camel toe is your game plan STICK to it NO MATTER what. That plan is your lifeline in a turbulent sea of sharks. If over time you refine your trading system so be it that is what evolution an adaptation is all about.
Good fortune!

#66 Cici on 04.03.13 at 11:14 pm

#30 Kessel

I have simple solution to your problem, dear friend.

Get “unmarried” first and then tell her that if she wants a house she can take on all the risk by buying it in her own name. And you’ll pay her rent.

If house prices keep going up, marry her again. If the crash, get a proper divorce :-)

#67 Say no to bitcoin on 04.03.13 at 11:21 pm

Bitcoin is a bit of a sham. The notion that nobody can switch on the digital printing press in nonsense, since the control of the blockchain is centralized. Decentralization in its purest form, as required to remove any centralized powers, cannot be practically realized, as any cryptographer worth his salt will tell you. At the heart of the problem is key setup and roll-overs when needed – so much for decentralised control. Fools!

#68 Victoria on 04.03.13 at 11:28 pm

Who cares about sales? The price for average SFD in 416 grew from 823,000 in February to 842,000 in March. What crash you guys are talking about?

#69 McLovin on 04.03.13 at 11:33 pm

Smoking man was just foreclosed on.

R.I.P Smoking Man
1910-2013

#70 Tom Vu on 04.03.13 at 11:49 pm

Much consternation in economic universe…aka rebalancing.

Smoking Old Man in hiding….try to hit on Wonder Woman while on 4 X 4 electric scooter …which ticked off Batman’s buttler Alfred…who slashed Robins’ KIA tires.

May require Joker and Green Lantern to act as mediators.

Stay tuned !

#71 Cici on 04.03.13 at 11:58 pm

#52 Smoking Man

Take it easy dude, he was JOKING.

Not everyone here takes themselves uberseriously.

#72 cramar on 04.03.13 at 11:58 pm

#52 Smoking Man on 04.03.13 at 10:39 pm

Your an idiot, everyone one lies, everyone spins, its called business. funny, they don’t teach that at MBA school..what a waste of money.
Why are people so stupid???????????

———-

What a cynical parochial world you inhabit! Actually when my son went for his MBA, they taught “Business Ethics”. It actually works in the world of management consulting that he now inhabits.

================

#57 Smoking Man on 04.03.13 at 10:55 pm
If you walk the earth thinking that lying is bad, honesty makes you good, having no agenda to scam and take your piece of the pie is not good.

You my friend are an idiot.

For life is a game of survival, the goal should always be between 9 to 5, I want to eat at the feast, live in luxury, and don’t want to break a sweat.

If you disagree with that you can work for me any time….

———

Being labelled an idiot by a fool is of no consequence. No one of any character or integrity would actually be associated with, let alone work for you.

I predict that your final years of your life will be truly miserable.

#73 Bubu on 04.04.13 at 12:08 am

#26Toon Town Boomer
The listing was so awesome ( according to kijiji) it’s already gone.
Sorry, could not see it anymore, what was this about?

#74 Steven Rowlandson on 04.04.13 at 12:13 am

I should think that when Canada’s bail in policy is acted on the capacity to pay mortgages will crash and burn as will confidence in governments and banks.
What is happening in Cyprus also happened in England during the 17th century and it was one of the reasons for the Glorious revolution that cost King Charles the 2nd his head. Stealing peoples money tends to make savers just a tad upset with the thieves in question.

#75 Joe on 04.04.13 at 12:29 am

The Fed gives and will soon take away. Also more tax havens as in Cyprus are soon to be fair game for the banksters.

#76 tedfiftyfour on 04.04.13 at 12:41 am

GUELPHSTUDENT! red hot map maybe not so accurate

site disclosure:
The information presented on this website is purely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered as an investment advice or any kind of advice at all. Statistics presented on this site are not guaranteed to be accurate. Cite at your own risk.

#77 Lee on 04.04.13 at 1:17 am

Stop using pictures of me from the future! Or keep using them! I can’t remember it’s an unresolved paradox, for now.

#78 Mike on 04.04.13 at 1:48 am

“GTA SFH solid….Condos=Screwd…….”

A condo crash takes out a lot of buyers out of the SFH market.

#79 K Morrison on 04.04.13 at 2:17 am

I’ve spent the past years working in one of the northern European cities that has weathered the economic crisis fairly well but has still seen residential real-estate values drop by 20% from peak. Yesterday a friend told me that she has been approved for a mortgage and is looking to buy an apartment. After more than five years of price declines it is less-expensive for her to own than to rent, all costs considered.

#80 Bashful renter on 04.04.13 at 2:35 am

Whistler down 68%
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/whistler-real-estate-prices-plummet-up-to-68-per-cent-1.1221964

#81 Benchwarmers on 04.04.13 at 3:17 am

I’m just not seeing these sold signs in Calgary some are talking about. I’m not seeing hardly any for sale signs for that matter.
I drove from the Deep South of Calgary all the way to the edge of the NW today. Large brand new cornflake mansions as far as the eye can see in every direction. It’s truly amazing how much has been built in just the last 10-15 years.
I really think when the poop hits the fan Calgary could end up being hit the hardest.
We aren’t so much an oil town anymore, our main industry is home building.

#82 Shocked on 04.04.13 at 4:04 am

Just read this piece from last year by Diane Francis: http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/05/04/taxpayers-also-victims-of-hot-money-behind-canadas-condo-bubbles/ Just crazy, I can’t believe this has been. Going on to such extreme measure. Was our govt asleep gehind the wheel or did they encourage this kind of speculation on purpose??

#83 Devore on 04.04.13 at 6:14 am

#22 The Prophet Elijah

I don’t know guys, I’m still seeing sold signs on Calgary properties regularly. I just bought and the value seems to be holding.

This is very odd. Normally, sales go to zero, and prices plunge within days.

#84 Smoking Man on 04.04.13 at 6:22 am

47 Realtors , Bankers , Mortgage brokers and now Canadian government in an all out PANIC! on 04.03.13 at 10:25 pm

Welcome back laughing con, you crazy re extremist…

Where you been?

Is Tom Vu doing seminars again, just asking

#85 Smoking Man on 04.04.13 at 6:25 am

#78 Mike on 04.04.13 at 1:48 am

“GTA SFH solid….Condos=Screwd…….”A condo crash takes out a lot of buyers out of the SFH market.
……………….

That could be an issue but sfh market doesn’t require a lot of buyers, nothing for sale…….

#86 Mississauga on 04.04.13 at 6:39 am

It would be interesting to track the number of realtors in the GTA who do as a job. In theory if realtor can’t put food on the table, he/she exits the job. And this trend would start to predict too many realtors, not enough product changing hands to feed all of them.

#87 martha pearce-smith on 04.04.13 at 7:14 am

“Relators lie…”

Apparently they lie, a lot…

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/04/03/home-sales-toronto-phony-bidding-wars_n_3007454.html

#88 T.J. BONES on 04.04.13 at 7:19 am

Sir Garth: A stock market meltdown and a major event of offshore accounts, exposed = THE BLACK SWAN??

What meltdown? — Garth

#89 Timbo on 04.04.13 at 7:41 am

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/apr/03/offshore-secrets-offshore-tax-haven

“It is estimated that more than $20tn acquired by wealthy individuals could lie in offshore accounts. The UK-controlled BVI has been the most successful among the mushrooming secrecy havens that cater for them.”

Taxes are for little people don’t you know?…..

http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-streets-most-worrying-charts-2013-3#niels-jensen-absolute-return-partners-1

“Wall Street’s Brightest Minds Reveal The Charts That Worry Them Most.”

Charting a course into the unknown should make you wonder who is steering the ship…….

#90 Victor V on 04.04.13 at 7:44 am

Housing prices higher in most Canadian markets in early 2013: report

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/housing-prices-higher-in-most-canadian-markets-in-early-2013-report/article10763649/

============

Realtors trying desperately to pump.

#91 jess on 04.04.13 at 7:49 am

Many of the world’s top’s banks are involved

http://www.icij.org/offshore/how-icijs-project-team-analyzed-offshore-files

#92 jess on 04.04.13 at 7:53 am

Tax havens explained: How the rich hide money – interactive graphic
A great new interactive tool, from CBC Canada, taking you through the theoretical steps you would take to set up an offshore secrecy structure.

The mechanisms of secrecy

This item, which is part of the ICIJ’s mega-investigation of offshore secrecy, will be added to our permanent webpage, The Mechanics of Secrecy.

=======================

Cyprus: Hot Russian money isn’t necessarily going where you think
Posted by: Nick Shaxson in: Thoughts During this discussion with Reuters television the interviewee, my favourite author, displays masterful control of a hacking cough. And some stuff about tax havens too. Original here.

http://treasureislands.org/

#93 drydock on 04.04.13 at 7:54 am

I know MacDonalds is a joke but this takes the cake.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/mcdonalds-want-ad-demands-bachelors-degree-two-years-experience-for-cashier/article/2526145

#94 Chickenlittle on 04.04.13 at 8:02 am

#23 Yolo:
“Vancouver is where you send money to die.”

Yes, Vancouver is the Toronto Maple Leafs of RE. Send us all of your old and tried players we will put them out to pasture for you at an inflated price.

#95 ghost71 on 04.04.13 at 8:02 am

Smoking man. You are the very epitome of what is wrong with this world.

#96 jess on 04.04.13 at 8:10 am

giving up your citizenship from one location for another is silly when the main address is @ earth

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/apr/03/offshore-secrets-owners-unmasked

#97 maxx on 04.04.13 at 8:13 am

#44 raginnn on 04.03.13 at 10:20 pm

Excellent article and thanks for pointing it out.

The unbridled arrogance of our “leaders” and others was, amongst other things, good for a laugh. They were going to teach the world a thing or two about fiscal dexterity. They paraded around in G-series meetings like masters of the universe. Too bad. If what many educated, skilled and experienced economists prognosticate comes to pass, Canada will likely garner little sympathy from those it sneered at in the past.

#98 Mike on 04.04.13 at 8:22 am

#85 “That could be an issue but sfh market doesn’t require a lot of buyers, nothing for sale…….”

Nothing is for sale because speculators don’t want to sell at a loss.

#99 CP on 04.04.13 at 8:30 am

Lots of steam building behind this story Garth.. I know, nothing you believe in, but still:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/04/04/jim_flahertys_cyprusstyle_bank_rescue_plan_walkom.html

Utter crap from someone who should know better. Lowest common denominator journalism. No bank will fail. No depositor will be bailed in. — Garth

#100 Simon on 04.04.13 at 8:52 am

Hey Garth,

Thanks for your daily posts. I had most of my net worth in my house, which I sold last fall and then invested the money. Even though it was the smart move to make, I still get pangs of house lust and posts like this one help keep that in check.

Hope you keep posting for a long time to come!

Take a shower. – Garth

#101 Dave99 on 04.04.13 at 8:58 am

@ #55, Dave99

Please ignore my earlier post. I hadn’t properly accounted for “bracket creep” in the data.

#102 Gotthardbahn on 04.04.13 at 9:00 am

Hey Garth – What slowdown in condos are you talking about? The dumptrucks were lined up four-deep across from my apartment building this morning when I left for work, carrying away the spoil from the latest condo tower going up on Roehampton Avenue just north of Young & Eligible. Down the street a bunch of boarded-up townhouses are awaiting demolition for yet another condo tower, and the signs are out for that absurd twin-tower development at Y&E. A huge pit awaits filling with the ‘Madison Tower’ a block east from Yonge St. on Eglinton, and I can also see two tower cranes in the area hard a’work building – you guessed it! – more condos. All this I can see during a five-minute walk to the TTC ‘tube’.

Why would banks and developers – supposed cold-blooded, rational types – be building all these glassboxes if the market was tanking? It just does not make sense. Please explain.

It takes about four years to develop and start building a project. The work does not stop in weeks or months, especially once financing has been extended and arranged, and tenders let. Use brain. — Garth

#103 Smoking Man on 04.04.13 at 9:02 am

ghost71 on 04.04.13 at 8:02 am

Smoking man. You are the very epitome of what is wrong with this world.
…………………..

Nothing wrong with the world. We have a small group that knows how to wheel, and a large group that are dumb, never step on the ice and shout from the stands….. Damn Leafs….

I see opportunity, you see injustice…. It’s just a misguided prospective on you part, now go save a tree……

#104 Otto on 04.04.13 at 9:06 am

re #42 … i’m fuuurrrrssttt to call out AK as a bullying AK-hole

#105 AD on 04.04.13 at 9:07 am

Correction: 8732 condos for sale on Kijiji in GTA.

#106 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 04.04.13 at 9:08 am

@#30 Kessel
Keep renting, trade the wife, buy a parrot, feed it crackers.

#107 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 04.04.13 at 9:12 am

@#51

“bitcoin”?
Bwahahahahahahaahha
Reminds me of gamers that will “pay” thousands of dollars for a better “weapon”.
Ridiculous, smoke and mirrors, ponzi.

Good luck

#108 Leo on 04.04.13 at 9:17 am

Good post. The revised numbers vs. unrevised is borderline a forgery as per this definition : “making a false instrument, with the intention … to induce somebody to accept it as genuine, and by reason of so accepting it to do or not to do some act to his own or any other person’s prejudice”.

#109 Ralph Cramdown Ⓤ on 04.04.13 at 9:25 am

#85 “That could be an issue but sfh market doesn’t require a lot of buyers, nothing for sale…….”

TREB reported 8,989 detached active listings at end of March 2013, up 9.5% from 8,207 in March 2012. For 416 only, there were 1,820 active, up 2.9% from 1,769 last year. Press an agent and he’ll admit that when he says there’s nothing for sale, he means there’s nothing ‘quality’ for sale, meaning his buyers are now pickier. As sales are down, there’s fewer of them, too. Tune in next month to hear another excuse… I hope, as I’m getting sick of them blaming the Land Transfer Tax.

#110 afraidit allmightend on 04.04.13 at 9:27 am

Whats the mystery….why the surprise…it’s been obvious for 3 years that the pyramid scheme called real estate was headed for a melt down. Its been laughable to listen to the real estate pimps and their media whores that prices would go up forever…..what did they want…everyone to buy ten?

Pyramid schemes and Ponzi’s are basic math…..no matter what the buy in..or the fantasy compensation promised..there are only so many suckers in the pool…once you run out of bodies…the pyramid collapses…..happens every time.

The next step down is giveaways……and even then you’ll run out of people who can afford the property taxes and the market would collapse…simple math suckers….simple math.

#111 Joe Cocker on 04.04.13 at 9:51 am

Amazing, Japan just announced 1.4 trillion of dollars in quantitative easing and the PMs and commodities are down….

#112 Bottoms_Up on 04.04.13 at 9:58 am

#68 Victoria on 04.03.13 at 11:28 pm
—————————————–
Pay attention. Lower sales allows the higher end homes to skew the average price higher. Therefore, lower sales with higher prices is a leading indicator of future price decreases.

#113 Blacksheep on 04.04.13 at 9:58 am

Godth

“I read your post, I pointed you to the institution that creates policy for all western central banks – the BIS, it’s their language. You keep repeating your sovereign mantra, that’s a quaint notion.”
———————————————-
“monetary policy is determined by each sovereign nation”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_for_International_Settlements
———————————————-
I’ll break it down, because your clearly struggling.

A) Source of the ‘language’ is, not relevant.

B) Date at which the ‘language’ was first used, is not relevant.

C) Sovereignty or lack of it, is not relevant.

D) The relevant issues for the sake of this conversation are:

1) Canada issues and controls it own currency.

2) Canada cannot be forced to default on debts, in it’s own currency.

3) Canada has the control to make all banks and bank accounts whole, with out burdening taxpayers or tapping deposits.

And most importantly.

4) Why Canada chose to use this volatile language, at all?

#114 Toronto_CA on 04.04.13 at 9:59 am

Still haven’t seen a realtor(tm) give a reason why prior year adjusted numbers should be used to benchmark current year unadjusted numbers.

The reason they do it is obvious, it paints a less grim picture of declining sales. How it is ethical to do this however is the question I’d like one of these realtors(tm) to try to explain. Come on guys, man or woman up and give an answer.

#115 Jeff on 04.04.13 at 10:04 am

Can you explain the difference between 6,000 on MLS and 20,000 vacant units? What comprises the 20,000 vacant units? Are they units that are meant to be “built/released” in 2013?

#116 TnT on 04.04.13 at 10:17 am

#49 Naga on 04.03.13 at 10:28 pm

For the rest of us – life is about staying positive, enjoying it and take risks without which there are no rewards….and if when we retire and run out of savings who cares we can look back and think all day and night about what we did all day and night in our younger days.

*****

Wow…. run out of savings because of greed and being duped by the real estate industry…. hope your kids do not bear your burden when you run out of money….

#117 Canadian Watchdog on 04.04.13 at 10:19 am

Investors Widen U.S. Rental Search as Home Costs Rise

Landlords seeking the highest returns for single-family homes should hit the road as rental rates weaken in Atlanta, Phoenix and Las Vegas, where institutional investors have flooded the market.

That's why Shiller doesn't trust his own index.

#118 CP on 04.04.13 at 10:21 am

re. post #99

I appreciate you taking the time to add your 2 cents Garth. Many thanks

#119 Editrix on 04.04.13 at 10:36 am

If Sharon’s so desperate to move, perhaps she should list at the price she bought her condo for and not try to be greedy.

#120 m on 04.04.13 at 10:40 am

No slow down in Van West, and in particular Kerrisdale. I have recently seen 5 properties listed and sold within weeks. I don’t know if they got asking, but the listing prices were so ridiculous, it hardly matters (unless of course they paid more and are selling at a loss). Still see bulldozers on almost every block tearing down properties and new McMansions popping up. There are a few dog listings that have been on the market for prolonged periods, but anything half decent is snapped up. In contrast to that, in Maple Ridge – 40K east of Vancouver – crickets. Listings languishing big time. Several real estate agent colleagues confirm Maple Ridge market is “very slow”.

#121 Kessel on 04.04.13 at 10:41 am

@#106 CrowdedElevatorfartz
Can’t do that – the wife provides other benefits in addition to the extra income she brings in.

#122 Calgaryboomer on 04.04.13 at 10:44 am

22,81,83

I am also seeing new sold signs in Calgary still. I would say a majority of for sale signs have sold stickers on them at least near where I am, but there are a few that getting stale. Wonder how long it will last, lol. Also, amazed at the number of former grow-ops clustered in decent communities.

#123 Godth on 04.04.13 at 11:00 am

@Blacksheep

1) Canada issues and controls it own currency.
In theory
2) Canada cannot be forced to default on debts, in it’s own currency.
In theory
3) Canada has the control to make all banks and bank accounts whole, with out burdening taxpayers or tapping deposits.
The BoC could loan money to all levels of gov’t too, why does gov’t borrow from private banks instead?
And most importantly.

4) Why Canada chose to use this volatile language, at all?
Why is Canada militarizing the police?
Why is Canada signining cross border security deals with the U.S. whereby U.S. police and military can operate within Canada and vice-versa?
Just how naive are you? Yes I’m struggling with this. I don’t even pay attention to Canadian news anymore. I just watch what the Yanks and Brits. are up to like a preview for what we’ll be doing. It may be presented with a “Canadian” spin but the basic plot is the same. We’re still a colony that does as it’s told 9/10.
Have a good day.

#124 Grantmi on 04.04.13 at 11:11 am

Wow.. more BS from the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board.

“Lower inventory keeps home prices in check as ‘slow
but steady’ market continues”

Yes.. Lower inventory.. what about the MASSIVE drop in SALES in the headlines???

Sales Way down from 2012: -20.1%
But prices holding.. up 0.7%

It’s only a matter of time that prices will start to plunge as sales continue to drop.. and listings languish!

http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/mls-statistics.php

#125 Andrew on 04.04.13 at 11:46 am

Real Estate agents pumping the “low inventory angle” hard here in Edmonton, as well as an “ignore” the MSM campaign, even had Don Campbell blowing that horn the other day.

Here’s a favorite quote:

“Sales have maintained their pace from last year, give or take a few hundred, so that’s obviously putting pressure on prices.”

-Scott Bollinger, broker for Commonsense Network

Give or take a few hundred eh? Well this month it’s give a few hundred here in Edmonton, but what the heck it’s only the low inventory!

#126 western observer on 04.04.13 at 11:51 am

Still say no crash in Vancouver for SFH. Condos will go down a bit.

I am seeing sold signs everywhere shortly after for sale sign goes up in my suburb of Vancouver.

Remember real estate is emotional and the herd thinks it will always go up. The herd does not read stats or this blog. They buy based on what their social circle does , they want to be in the game at the same or better level. They believe what the real estate weekly says or what their realtor says because that is what they want to believe.

Vancouver and area has the mildest climate in Canada and is the most attractive city that offers a multitude of activities.

As I said in the winter , spring will bring a buying frenzy and I am seeing just that it my neck of the woods.

Where in the markets stats is this ‘buying frenzy’? — Garth

#127 Tom Vu on 04.04.13 at 12:11 pm

Very glad that women are very rational and not subject to emotions.

#128 jess on 04.04.13 at 12:19 pm

What’s a tax haven? Answer: a Thiefdom

… tax fraud, theft and deliberate opacity, all aided and abetted by bankers, lawyers and accountants.
==
the chinese are investing in charter schools
read why EB-5 program
http://www.miamitodaynews.com/news/121004/story1.shtml

read why
Charter Schools Are So Great, Why Are They Riddled With Fraud? Why Don’t They Produce Better Results?

….”Why, we even have one school that was doubling as a nightclub, and selling booze on the weekends. (I wish I was kidding.)

ms hall was loved by those business elites…..
http://truth-out.org/opinion/item/15510-the-road-to-atlantas-standardized-test-cheating-scandal

#129 torontorocks on 04.04.13 at 12:36 pm

Lying, cheating, sneaking around, being duplicitous is not a killer or hunter or winner attitude. Because if it was you would challenge another hunter and go off with your tail between your legs. You prey on weak, or trusting and yes, there are those who kill and eat first and those who eat last, but you don’t eat the weak.

Trust me turdboys, I destroy it 7 days a week in a very bureacratic institution and I’ve never taken the smile off of anyone’s face and a lot of people have been made, paid and laid off of Torontorocks benevolence.

Yes, 90% of people now are weak and cowardly – I won’t steal from them, just push them out of the way and show them how its done.

#130 JustTryingToProtectEquity on 04.04.13 at 12:49 pm

Canadian Watchdog

A few posts back, you provided us with this:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0ByrPFSoPLahJSE56TmxZN0RqdUE/edit?pli=1

How did you create it? How did you get your hands on it?

it is getting a lot of mileage on the Globe and Mail Real Estate blogs!

#131 western observer on 04.04.13 at 12:50 pm

Re: 126

Garth- you asked “where in the markets stats is this “buying frenzy” ?

It will show in April figures

#132 AprilNewwest on 04.04.13 at 1:05 pm

# 102 Gotthardbahb – now you all should know why the building continues as told by Garth. These people have too much in the game to pull out now. The market is still tanking even though some of you try to deny it.

#133 SRV on 04.04.13 at 1:06 pm

Garth is proven right about the Canadian Real Estate bubble… it’s crumbling one marble slab at a time.

As is his Canadian bank fantasy… as the world begins to wake up to the fact that the world banking cabal have developing crisis resolution plans… G20 agreement link (http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/publications/r_111104cc.pdf) for systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) which includes opaque reference (creditors, liabilities, etc) to confiscation of customer funds (in English, that incudes savings, RSPs, trading accounts and any other form of deposit of personal wealth in a bank that is not guaranteed… and clearly Cyprus has put them on the table as well) and is now officail policy of the Harper Government.

The drum beat continues, as more “informed” citizens (and “experts) begin to understand the banking/financial system is broken. But Garth says “nothing to see here, lets move on,” don’t worry, be happy and buy a bank!

Please understand… each dollar you give to a bank in any form IS A LOAN… you are a CREDITOR, and your money is at risk. The power hungry banking cabal has slowly forced every monetary transaction in the developed world to flow through their web of fraud and corruption… can any of you get paid for the work you do without the funds first BEING LOANED to the bank before you are given the privilege of access to your own money… just stop and think about that for a minute!

Bitcoin, the only (non manipulated) alternative to the banking cabal system, has appreciated 300% since Cyprus… and once the cabal loses its (fraudulent paper) grip on precious metals they will join Bitcoin as the rational alternative to the fraud and corruption that is our banking system!

More to come… watch the news!

Fools and their money are soon parted, and bankers have nothing to do with it. — Garth

#134 pbrasseur on 04.04.13 at 1:22 pm

TSX down, gold, oil down as well

Why is the $CAN rising?

#135 Victor V on 04.04.13 at 1:29 pm

#102 You forgot about the massive new condo development going up South of Y&E. Goodbye Art Shoppe.

http://www.postcity.com/Post-City-Magazines/April-2013/New-plan-for-Art-Shoppe-site-put-forward/

#136 David McDonald on 04.04.13 at 1:31 pm

I met a truthful real estate agent in Valencia Spain last week. I had been looking at flats in the fine old area of Ensanche just outside the city center. He said I should wait because prices were still falling. He said by Christmas there should be some resolution. Either things would get a little better or Spain would explode.

#137 Not 1st on 04.04.13 at 1:34 pm

US job market pooped the bed again. Unemployment on its way to 8.5% or higher. What was that about a recovery?

It continues. Unemployment is on its way to 6.5%. — Garth

#138 dosouth on 04.04.13 at 1:39 pm

Garth maybe you should start a blog for all the posts on “life lessons” and give some of the blog dogs a place to vent their spleen over personal issues with each other – IMHO….

#139 rosie "moving backwards" on 04.04.13 at 1:43 pm

On Stockman and gold. A well written rebuttal. http://www.salon.com/2013/04/04/don’t_catch_his_eye_david_stockman’s_alien_abduction_partner/

#140 pbrasseur on 04.04.13 at 2:01 pm

Not 1st # 137

“US job market pooped the bed again. ”

No so, this is likely a blip due to seasonal adjustment, nothing special is happening

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.ca/2013/04/the-jump-in-claims-is-bogus.html

#141 mags on 04.04.13 at 2:02 pm

garth – the stock market is scaring me today.

I hate watching my portfolio fall.

should I sell?

The market is down a staggering 0.4%. In your case, yes. Immediately. — Garth

#142 Victor V on 04.04.13 at 2:19 pm

Has Flaherty gone too far with cooling off the housing market?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/video/video-advice-for-home-buyers-sellers-in-a-spring-market/article10770972/

#143 jess on 04.04.13 at 2:23 pm

Sarah Petre-Mears?
….who on paper controls more than 1,200 companies scattered around the Caribbean, the Republic of Ireland, New Zealand and the UK itself

offshore firms feed London’s property boom

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/video/2012/nov/25/offshore-secrets-where-is-sarah-petre-mears-video

sounds like those liar loans and robo signers

#144 Frank le skank on 04.04.13 at 2:34 pm

#131 western observer on 04.04.13 at 12:50 pm
================
Re: 126

Garth- you asked “where in the markets stats is this “buying frenzy” ?

It will show in April figures
================
That’s funny, Q4 2012 I was posting on different RE blogs that Q1 2013 will show a continued downward trend in sales, wait and see what the spring market brings. They key word is continued, what are you basing your comment on? I suspect you walked up a certain street that may be aligned with your “theory” and you have expanded your “theory” to a larger geographical area without any actualy data.

#145 Stoopid Idiot on 04.04.13 at 2:46 pm

The price could potentially fall all the way back down to two hundred dollars an ounce.

Name one company that could turn a profit at $200.00 an ounce? Sheesh…. Confine your statements to that in witch your qualified to comment on

#146 Tony on 04.04.13 at 2:48 pm

Re: #125 Andrew on 04.04.13 at 11:46 am

The problem is though if you’re trying to sell a house you sell it in the future not n the past. The truth is inventory as usual in Edmonton is going sky high month over month this year which means falling prices year after year decade after decade and century after century.

#147 TorontoBull on 04.04.13 at 2:54 pm

“Fools and their money are soon parted, and bankers have nothing to do with it. — Garth”
perhaps you spend too much time in TO’s financial district…

Perhaps I know more. — Garth

#148 Humpty Dumpty on 04.04.13 at 2:54 pm

Risk – It’s Not Just A Board Game

Grant Williams – focusing on the corruption of traditional price signals by Central Banks’ ZIRP policy, financial repression and the possibility that the gold leasing market is about to fall apart.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzzoBVK3fyE

#149 Timbo on 04.04.13 at 2:55 pm

http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfisher/2013/04/03/muni-bankruptcies-set-up-war-between-pensioners-and-bondholders/

“lawyers argue Stockton has no viable way out of insolvency unless it addresses its pension debts. The city’s tentative plan would still have it racking up $100 million in operating deficits over the next 10 years and the CalPERS obligation would actually increase, said.”

This is going to end well….pensions be-damned!

http://www.icij.org/offshore

“More and more upper-income Canadians are hiding their money overseas, not contributing to the Canadian economy and not paying their fair share, and that simply means the rest of us have to pay more,” he said in an interview. “It’s grossly unfair.”

Too much information can stir the herd…….

#150 Andrew on 04.04.13 at 2:58 pm

To those who take seeing “Sold” signs as a market indicator, don’t be ridiculous, of course there are Sold signs in any market, but it’s hardly a reliable source.

and also…

Consider that realtors also keep past Sold signs up as long as possible as a marketing tool to advertise that they actually sold something in recent memory.

#151 Stoopid Idiot on 04.04.13 at 2:59 pm

The Cyprus Effect

The impact of the crisis in Cyprus is almost like a butterfly effect. It is so tiny that one cannot imagine it having a global impact. Yet, its crisis has dented global markets to the tune of trillions of dollars, hundreds of times the direct cost of the crisis. This demonstrates the inherent instability of the global financial system. A small change in perception can lead to big price moves on financial markets.
The troika solution to the Cyprus problem breaks two taboos regarding financial bailouts of the past five years. It wipes clean the rescued banks’ senior creditors and gives large depositors a serious haircut. If creditors and depositors adjust their risk assessment, weak banks around the world could go under, taking down the global economy. Even if the chance of this is small, the consequent price adjustment in the global financial markets is significant.
The global financial system is holding major central banks and governments hostage. The Cyrus bailout addresses one serious flaw in today’s financial system – the under pricing of risk due to implicit government guarantees. When a weak bank offers high interest rates to attract creditors and depositors, that latter are enticed because they assume government bailouts will prevent them from suffering losses. Hence, weak banks can survive by raising interest rates. They are incentivized to gamble in a high-risk investment. If they are lucky, they survive. If not, they fail, as they would anyway. Such a vicious cycle deepens the cost of a final bailout. Hence, the Cyrus solution puts creditors and depositors on notice. It should be a very healthy development.
The impact of the financial crisis in tiny Cyprus reminds us that governments and central banks are beholden to the global financial system. When they try to remove a flaw in the system, the resulting market reaction can bring down the whole house. Imagine that Italians were withdrawing all their deposits, would the European Central Bank be forced into guaranteeing all deposits? The expectation for that is preventing people from taking their money out. Hence, the bailout expectation is the key to stability.
The global financial system is so flawed that its stability depends on implicit government guarantees. Unfortunately, such guarantees ensure that such weaknesses persist. The vicious cycle keeps the global financial system permanently unstable.
More…

http://english.caixin.com/2013-04-03/100509702.html

Cyprus has had a zero effect on global markets. — Garth

#152 Blacksheep on 04.04.13 at 3:05 pm

Godth

“I don’t even pay attention to Canadian news anymore. I just watch what the Yanks and Brits.”
———————————————
You actually watch MSM, anywhere? Your, calling me naive.

You want to discuss how deep the rabbit hole goes?

There are two versions of reality. The second is seldom discussed, here or in public.

1) The official sanitized ‘system’: You must to vote to change things. Our ancestors died for our freedoms. Our military performs only peacekeeping missions. One must appear successful whether or not, one is successful. Our government has altruistic intentions. The Olympics are for athletic competition. Canada is free to decide its own future.

One shouldn’t ask, uncomfortable questions.

2) The unpleasant reality: Countries are tax farms. Citizens are Chattel. Democracy is an illusion to pacify. Borders crate false, us vs. them patriotism. Wars are a for profit business. 75% of our national debt is interest. We are being assimilated by the US. Private banks, control world finance.

Andrew Jackson was right.

Shall I go on?

It must suck to be you. — Garth

#153 The bubble continues! on 04.04.13 at 3:07 pm

“Home prices edge up in most markets, Royal LePage says”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2013/04/04/royal-lepage-real-estate-survey.html

#154 Peter on 04.04.13 at 3:21 pm

About skewed stats , all real eastate stats are skewed , they are only taking a sample of sales like a poll, comparing SFH and condos prices together is also terrible comparison math. To use an example of ONE condo selling experience to explain how a market is down is JUST as inaccurate as the real estate monthly numbers . To people renting , its great that you can save compared to owning , but Ive never met a renter that can save the difference (gets spent on nothing usually). Buying a house should never be about averages , should be about fundamentals and that can change drastically from two houses on the same street , USE your brain and heart and gut, to find something thats work for you, and get off your butt, I respect Garth but his opinion is just one of millions and he has been wrong about real estate values for a long time , real estate runs in cycles , requiring adjustments , a ten % adjustment does not mean a crash and prices have not even started to adjust , and comparing this Mar and Feb , to last years RECORD numbers and balmy weather shopping is just foolish

Read this. It used to be different there, too. — Garth

#155 Alga3 Fan on 04.04.13 at 3:31 pm

#50 Smoking Man on 04.03.13 at 10:33 pm

“One thing about me,

I love to share my success and love sharing my fails, thats how one learns, Its ok to lie to people, but never to ones self. I take all the credit for my wins, but blane no one for my mistakes. I evalute them, and try not to repeat.”

Props to you Smoking Man! Keep sharing your forex (and stock trading) experiences. Sharing is caring.

#156 Listing EXPLOSION on 04.04.13 at 3:37 pm

Looks like PANIC is setting in the RE market as people flood the market looking for any greaterfool before it all goes up in smoke. Driving through the GTA and i noticed many more for sale signs and some for sale sign on houses that sold three months ago? How is that possible? in any case reeading the G@M and the has F gone to far tells me the RE shills are in a PANIC as they know the real sales numbers and they are WORSE then they reported.

#157 Frank le skank on 04.04.13 at 3:44 pm

#154 Peter on 04.04.13 at 3:21 pm
You do bring up an interesting point about numbers. I would challenge your last statement (at least from a GTA perspective) that last year had RECORD numbers. You’ll never have a measuring stick for housing, all you can do is take into account all the valid variables and try to make your own deduction. The question is what’s valid and what’s not? Does the fact that we had 27 days in Feb really skew the numbers? Does the fact that Easter was in March provide an excuse for negative YoY sales in 2013? They do not.

#158 joe q on 04.04.13 at 3:44 pm

Ruh Roh – Whistler RE Prices Plummet up to 60%

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/whistler-real-estate-prices-plummet-up-to-68-per-cent-1.1221964#ixzz2PT1UyFnx

#159 Jere on 04.04.13 at 3:55 pm

Having a hard time figuring out what the implications of this are:
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/isharesr-canada-updates-on-impact-of-federal-budget-tax-proposal-1775009.htm

#160 western observer on 04.04.13 at 4:00 pm

Re: 144

You suspect incorrectly.

If you need stats- wait for April figures

#161 rembrandt on 04.04.13 at 4:03 pm

GARTH: Why do I bother? You know it all!

Invest in the US? A slippery slope economy built on printing press money. Our banks so solid that your friendly friends in Government enacted similar stuff 2 years ago and put it in this year’s in the budget that the Cypriots now have to swallow. Their Govt stealing 80% of their accounts. The lead instigator of this “crap” is none other than fleeing to Britain Mark Carney.

Real estate a buy in the US? Why bother the 2nd downturn is in the making. The Royal LePage guy on BNN today is all rosy about Vancouver and Toronto markets. Recovery imminent he says.

Let’s get it straight. Gold/silver bullion and coins are bought in greater numbers everywhere in this world of insanity. Don’t keep a lot of money in the banks. They’re not playing Robin Hood.

Dark days ahead Garth!

#162 AK on 04.04.13 at 4:26 pm

#153 The bubble continues! on 04.04.13 at 3:07 pm
“Home prices edge up in most markets, Royal LePage says”
——————————————————————-

Well, it must be correct then. :-)

#163 Blacksheep on 04.04.13 at 4:27 pm

“It must suck to be you. — Garth”
—————————————-
I think you misunderstand my perspective, Garth. I’m not complaining. Just stating facts. Uncommon insight provides invaluable information. I see opportunity every were, kind of a like a wolf, amongst sheep.
I hold no illusions. Worship no deities. It’s very liberating. Family is happy. Business is good. Life is great!!

I notice you did not challenge the message, just the messenger.

The message is worse. — Garth

#164 AK on 04.04.13 at 4:28 pm

Leaked documents detail offshore tax shelters

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/leaked-documents-detail-offshore-tax-113400953.html

#165 Andrew on 04.04.13 at 4:49 pm

#146 Tony

Shhh, we don’t want our friends at the Edmonton Real Estate blog to notice, their blogdogs especially WSN might have a myocardial infarction…

#166 Humpty Dumpty on 04.04.13 at 5:05 pm

“Capitalism without Bankruptcy is like Christianity without Hell-it does not work” – Kyle Bass

Ribett… Ribett….

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/04/kyle-bass-japan-will-implode-under-debt-video/

#167 Ken R on 04.04.13 at 5:07 pm

#127 Tom Vu on 04.04.13 at 12:11 pm

Very glad that women are very rational and not subject to emotions.

I’d like to introduce you to someone I’ve spent the last 32 years with and see if you keep the same opinion!

#168 AprilNewwest on 04.04.13 at 5:14 pm

#142 Victor – He needs to go further yet in slowing things down. Only the real estate industry is complaining about the changes that have hastened the decline…. only concerned about their own interests.

#169 Doug in London on 04.04.13 at 5:15 pm

You mean to tell me some people are actually surprised by what’s happening in the Toronto condo market? Periodically I visit Toronto and, each time I visited the city I saw more new condo buildings going up. It really hit me in March of last year when I saw more of these buildings crowded around in the area around Union Station and Steamwhistle Brewing Company. It looked like you couldn’t swing a broom around without hitting one. Right then I was whisked off to another nostalgia trip to 1989, complete with the Exxon Valdez oil spill and talk about low temperature nuclear fusion. Why? because that was the last time condo building and prices went from absurd to crazy. It was like a slow burning campfire that suddenly erupted into a raging, run for your life inferno. So now I wonder, how could anyone after seeing what I saw, NOT see that it was an overbuilding bubble?

#170 Kevin on 04.04.13 at 5:18 pm

Garth,
you may like
here is the average house price in Canada from 1956 to 2012.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fSulio7oFgM/UV3Pu5Xts0I/AAAAAAAAF8A/UaeVRW6PEKU/s1600/Average+Annual+Canadian+House+Price+1956+-+2012.jpg

Let’s see that with an income graph superimposed. What bubble? — Garth

#171 The Prophet Elijah on 04.04.13 at 5:25 pm

US job market pooped the bed again. Unemployment on its way to 8.5% or higher. What was that about a recovery?

It continues. Unemployment is on its way to 6.5%. — Garth
———————————————————-
Then why are so many continueing to apply for unemployment benefits. Tomorrow’s job numbers will be dismal.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2013/04/04/us-unemployment-aid-applications-jump-to-385000/#ixzz2PW3ufEae

#172 :):( Ying Yang on 04.04.13 at 5:27 pm

Smoking Man did you heed my words about Forex? Dow up, TSX up, Can $ up, what say ye oh Lord of thy Smoke?
I always say after I get my A$$ kicked in the market, WTF were you thinking? There my lies the fundamental flaw in all of us gamblers, just don’t think! Just do it!

#173 GoNorth on 04.04.13 at 5:29 pm

Garth, any stats on Montreal for March? What is the best source to keep track of the situation there?

Just published here. See below. — Garth

#174 robert james on 04.04.13 at 5:30 pm

Who is the most trust worthy on Vancouver real estate ??POLL… http://blog.buzzbuzzhome.com/2013/04/most-trustworthy-expert-vancouve-real-estate-market.html

#175 David on 04.04.13 at 5:41 pm

Montreal, March 2013 stats:

http://communications.centris.ca/Tableaux/2013/Tableaux_Communiques_CIGM_2013M03_ENG.pdf

Canada’s second-biggest market: sales off 18%, SFH transactions down 20% — Garth

#176 Tom Vu on 04.04.13 at 5:49 pm

It is very simple:

The analogy is”

—-If a butterfly with camel -toe breaks wind in Cyprus, will the sheep elsewhere have Mohawk cuts?

Garth is saying no…that’s why toupees were invented.

#177 Spiltbongwater on 04.04.13 at 5:52 pm

Some people see death, I see a potential job opening.

#178 Smoking Man on 04.04.13 at 6:09 pm

Yong yang,

I put up a galiant battle, balls in huge.. Made my loot back today.. Got margin called in middle of night, roobo sold a 4 contract, down, 2.6 k when I wake up.. I love winning more than I hate lossing.

Made up all my losses….

I rock that’s why… Full report this weekend, the does and donts

#179 GoNorth on 04.04.13 at 6:23 pm

#175 David & Garth, thanks!!

#180 Blacksheep on 04.04.13 at 6:26 pm

“The message is worse. — Garth”
—————————————–
I know. I Normally avoid open discussion of the nasty issues raised today as this blog’s skin is too thin for this type of, harsh reality. When one critiques the ‘system’ one expects push back from those whom benefit from it, status quo.

I advise most, stick to the blue pill. Not all truths are beneficial. Some carry heavy burdens lesser men struggle to shoulder without negative consequences.

And besides, It’s only an advantage, if it’s not public knowledge : )

#181 Joe on 04.04.13 at 6:30 pm

CHEK news on the markets today and why the Dow was up and TSX down again. As reported its because our interest rates are stiffeling our housing market vs the US housing market being in recovery…Oh and because it is tied to other things like oil, mining… No mention that the US market has experienced a significant correction or that we are at that stage now.
Pump pump while the prices dump.

#182 Kevin on 04.04.13 at 6:36 pm

Let’s see that with an income graph superimposed. What bubble? — Garth

In due time. I have data for average weekly wages back to 1941 in Canada. The increase in house prices compared to wages may even shock you Garth, especially in the last 25 years.

Food for thought, I am working on a graph with average house prices and GDS ratios over time. Imagine what mortgage brokers would do if the GDS ratio dropped back to 23% and you could only use half of your spouses income?

1946- GDS ratio is 23 %

1960′s- GDS ratio increased to 27%

1972- all of spouses income can now be used in GDS ratio, before 1972, only half was used

Early 80′s- GDS ratio increased to 32%, TDS set at 40%

2007- Some lenders scrap GDS ratio altogether, bumping their acceptable TDS ratios up to 44%. On an exception basis, clients are sometimes approved with TDS ratios of 46% or more.

Between 2008-2010 CMHC applies more stringent maximums for riskier borrowers (35% GDS and 42% for credit scores below 680) No GDS requirements for low risk borrowers, TDS at set 45%

2012- New caps on GDS (39%) and TDS (44%) Riskier borrowers (35% GDS and 42% for credit scores below 680 stays the same)

Expect a graph with average house prices and GDS ratios in the next few days.

I am panting at the prospect. — Garth

#183 blok existentialist on 04.04.13 at 6:36 pm

Rainforest gets my vote.

#184 Smoking Man on 04.04.13 at 7:48 pm

#155 Alga3 Fan on 04.04.13 at 3:31 pm

ALGA3 Fan, just had a vision, I bet Alga3 should have been Algo3 but was spelled wrong… You a dyslexic too?

#185 Who Cares on 04.04.13 at 7:51 pm

“I acted agaist the herd, put a trade between the Bat and the Camel Toe.”

Ah now there is a little more insight. You’re a hermaphrodite aren’t you? At least that’s all I can conclude from that statement.

#186 Freedom First on 04.04.13 at 8:14 pm

161 Rembrandt

Gold and silver is, no doubt,a good hedge, purchased at the proper time. But, go easy buying both gold and silver, or else the hedge/insurance effect you want disappears with the increased risk you are trying to avoid. Remember, balance, re-balance, diversity, and liquidity. I say this because no one knows with certainty what is going to happen, and every industry is flogging what they are selling. Garth teaches wise principles of investing, and he is right. Little variations from what Garth teaches won’t kill you financially, but big variations, with a high probability, will be lethal. 100% vested in 1 asset(asset class), is exactly like playing “Financial Russian Roulette”. No exception.

#187 Alga3 Fan on 04.04.13 at 9:09 pm

#184 Smoking Man on 04.04.13 at 7:48 pm

Perhaps I am dyslexic. I tend to sometimes write “s’ when I mean to write the number “3″. It’s all good. I have a knack at figuring things out that others tend to overlook, if you know what I mean.

#188 Deliverator on 04.05.13 at 3:15 am

Um, Garth… what was that you said about uninsured deposits not being at risk in our banks?

What say you about this joint statement from the Fed and the BoE? Granted, they aren’t the BoC, but given the mealy-mouthed wording in the latest Dwarf budget, I’m not so sure the Western banks aren’t lining up the steer for the slaughter anymore…

“The goal is to produce resolution strategies that could be implemented for the failure of one or more of the largest financial institutions with extensive activities in our respective jurisdictions. These resolution strategies should maintain systemically important operations and contain threats to financial stability.

They should also assign losses to shareholders and unsecured creditors in the group, thereby avoiding the need for a bailout by taxpayers. These strategies should be sufficiently robust to manage the challenges of cross-border implementation and to the operational challenges of execution…

But insofar as a bail-in provides for continuity in operations and preserves value, losses to a deposit guarantee scheme in a bail-in should be much lower than in liquidation. Insured depositors themselves would remain unaffected.

Uninsured deposits would be treated in line with other similarly ranked liabilities in the resolution process, with the expectation that they might be written down.”

Bank of England and Federal Reserve Joint Statement on Resolving Globally Active, Systemically Important, Financial Institutions.

#189 Mike on 04.05.13 at 7:35 am

#182, could be interesting to plot interest rates and amortization lengths on that too. Hmm.

#190 charles on 04.05.13 at 10:28 am

So in the New Speak credibility means chasing a buck however phony or counter intuitive that yeild is.
Mr Sprotts funds are oriented to real assets with a buy and hold strategy that embraces reality.
You can Cramdown all the flavour of the month Benny Bucks you want but at the end of the day you are holding empty promises.
Credibily is having the courage of your convictions and acting on them, not bootlicking the story line of a failed politician.

Sprott has lost investors considerable coin, and is now spreading disinformation. If it is to attract more investors, I understand that. If he believes it, he’s a quack. If you post here again, try not to be insulting. It diminishes you. — Garth

#191 Camshaft on 04.05.13 at 8:13 pm

Calgary Oil & Gas projects are still being cancelled at an ever alarming rate.

Water cooler talk tonight with the senior I&C Engineer, enlightened me that only one of the major Engineering firms, has new work ( Jacobs) – rates paid to the Contractors will be falling as the race to the bottom begins