Ethics

smear

The real estate industry’s in crisis mode, which explains a lot. People will fight hard when their livelihood is at stake. Especially those who live or die by commission, with no pensions, sick days, overtime or pity.

Mortgage brokers, real estate agents and those who support them feel their anxiety rise as sales fall. So far the spring of 2013 is bleak and thin. The writing’s on the wall. ‘Worry,’ it says.

One estimate is that F’s killing of the 30-year mortgage will result in a stunning 190,000 jobs being lost between now and 2015. The bulk of those will be in the resale housing sector and 70,000 in the new-build area. That, says the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (seriously), wipes out about 80% of a full year’s worth of newly-created Canadian jobs.

Of course, the elfin deity did this to try and deflate the housing gasbag he swore did not exist. It’s also why he nixed 2.89% mortgages at Manulife on Monday. If real estate is not corralled and tamed, he knows, it’ll blow up.

Realtors and lenders have been fighting back. They’ve lobbied the feds hard for eight months, but F is unmoved. And sales continue to slide, with prices to follow. What to do?

One tried-and-tested tactic is to publish misinformation about the true state of the market. By obscuring current data, manipulating it or misrepresenting it, the industry seeks to keep people confident about real estate. Booms, rising prices and multiple bids are headline news. But when markets fall they’re called ‘balanced’. A glut of unsold properties means ‘there’s choice.’

We expect real estate marketing to lie. Regulated real estate boards, not so much. Their misleading of consumers ranges from irritating to appalling. For example, the Toronto Real Estate Board leads each biweekly media release with sales data, which is taken as gospel by all those hard-working, never-fooled reporters. TREB compares the current sales to those of the same period a year earlier. Sort of.

As we’ve revealed previously, current sales numbers are ‘raw’ – newly-reported but as-yet unclosed deals. This data is compared to the revised numbers from last year, and not the raw number from that period. And because deals fall through (lots of them), this makes a bad market look better.

Blog dog Axxman did some digging:

In reviewing historical TREB Market Watch numbers I started to question the comparative numbers that were being used. They always seemed to be adjusted and I wondered if there was a pattern. I went back for the last 5 months to test this and they are 10 for 10 in having the adjustments enhance current growth and average price outcomes. It’s beyond pure chance that their adjustments never go against them.

In the last 5 months, almost 900 unit sales have disappeared this way. They seem to systematically adjust the comparative years unit sales down between 2.6% and 3.2% and average prices seem to adjust down around the 0.5% to 1.0% range. The result is that it enhances the growth numbers being reported in the current period.

But this is mere recreational realtor diddling compared to the spreading influence of the MLS HPI – Home Price Index. It’s now in use by several boards after being launched 13 months ago, and is scheduled to snake across the country to cover 16 markets. When the transition is complete most homeowners and buyers will be blind to actual, current market conditions. This, naturally, is the intent.

The HPI is to houses what moving averages are to stocks. Instead of telling you what properties sell for now, it tells you what they averaged over time. Realtors love this since it filters out peaks and valleys, making markets seem serene and predictable. But the HPI is as useless to a serious buyer as a four-month-old stock quote is to a trader.

I shared an extreme example with you days ago. The median price of houses in upscale hoods of Richmond (a Van suburb) have crashed as much as 50% in a year, from $1.388 million to $688,000. And yet the HPI Frankenumber for the area reports a decline of only 4.6%. The raw price data is proprietary to the Vancouver real estate board, which means folks wanting to buy in Richmond could be lulled into paying far too much.

Is this ethical? Professional? Even legal in a regulated industry?

You should know that after this data was published on a real estate bulletin board, then picked up and interpreted by this site, and then reported by this pathetic blog, it has once again disappeared. The incredible, useful and compelling story of US-style housing panic in a Canadian city has been suppressed.

Meanwhile I can tell you, with certainty, that sales in the Lower Mainland in the last thirty days are 54% less than a year ago and 34% worse than during the crisis of 2009.

Many people will lose their work. Some deserving.

203 comments ↓

#1 Mr. Monday Night on 03.21.13 at 8:33 pm

F already did untold amounts of damage by allowing zero down mortgages coupled with 30-40 year amortization periods.

Noble efforts as of late, but it is much too late. He is on borrowed time.

#2 mortgagebrokeron on 03.21.13 at 8:35 pm

This is eyeopening

#3 FlyingFlaherty on 03.21.13 at 8:36 pm

Any idea how good/bad the montreal market is doing?

Sales down 28% in February. — Garth

#4 JO on 03.21.13 at 8:44 pm

A little off topic but then again with all the news out right now and budget day…

First Cyprus with its shock tax on deposits (I admit if i had a deposit there, i would be more scared today than if the vote had passed to tax…if they get kicked out of the Euro, your Cypriot pound will drop 50-70 % and wipe out your GIC….)

Then the NZ central bank floating a plan to bail in banks by converting (robbing) deposits.

Now, see the 2013 budget document, page 145, gov’t will begin plans to expand tools for them to deal with broke banks in the unlikely case it happens in Canada..and yes, the main idea is that a tool would be used to convert “very rapidly” certain bank liabilities in order to bail in the banks…so i will be emailing my MP for details on what that means…I don’t have GICs and i do not think we will need to deal with a broke bank but could it be that anyone with more than 100K in savings will have a portion of the savings used to recapitalize a bank ???? This is getting very strange and deeply concerning..not to say outrageous…the attack on savers continues unabated..they are coming for the modest savings we have accumulated despite paying enormous income taxes..they want 100 % of our income it seems…
Also, there is word of a “one time” wealth tax of about 30 % to be applied globally on all wealth above 100K to help paydown debt…this movement started with the Boston Consulting Group sept 2011 report…

We don’t have the slightest clue as to what lays ahead folks…world will not end but most of us are going to get financially wacked..even those who have not gamled on taxpayer subsidized housing gains with 0 or 5 % down..

Read page 145 of the 2013 budget and let me know what you think..

#5 blase on 03.21.13 at 8:44 pm

what will it take for the same ethics that are applied to a mutual fund dealer to be applied to the real estate industry? after a trillion of wealth is destroyed in the upcoming housing crash, i’m sure the condo industry will be the first to be put out to pasture. The mother of all ponzi schemes. Hard to believe this is the 21st century. The multitude of men and women involved in this fraud must have shared a thousand laughs at the stupidity of Canadians. We truly are a gullible nation. We will be a better nation despite our loss of pride and wealth in a few short years. An easy buck always has strings attached.

#6 East Van on 03.21.13 at 8:47 pm

I am a trades person. I was working in a Mcdonalds in Abbotsford recently. A 30 somthing male embarassed mcdonalds employee was cleaning in the back. He told me he was a real estate agent. He needed a regular paycheque.

#7 Johnny B. Goode on 03.21.13 at 8:49 pm

sixxxth????

#8 X on 03.21.13 at 8:51 pm

Who regulates the regulated RE boards? Who holds them accountable? Who fines, reprimands or administers punitive damages for the effects that their frankenumbers could cause by manipulating families and individuals into purchasing RE at this time.

Could you imagine the lawsuits if an auto manufacturer did the same thing fudging the number of accidents caused by their faulty parts.

#9 Waterloo 1234 on 03.21.13 at 8:53 pm

Casually asked TD about what their interest rate is. “We have a 5-year fixed special at 2.89%.” Really? Didn’t Flaherty give Manulife a mouthful for that? “Manulife advertised it, we don’t, it’s a walk-in special”.

Walk-in special, folks. Read all about it.

#10 james on 03.21.13 at 8:53 pm

any idea what calgary looks like year over year as well as the surround town and country?

#11 My thoughts on 03.21.13 at 8:53 pm

Really incredible. Saw a listing that is priced half a million below what previous expected asking prices in oakville would be tonight and felt like this is finally a turning point. Others are riding the market down. Spring is here… Let the party start!!

#12 mark on 03.21.13 at 8:53 pm

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:rSX66Q3NO0oJ:whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.com/2013/03/take-look-at-these-secret-statistics.html+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au

For anyone who still wants to see that post that was taken down.

#13 The Prophet Elijah on 03.21.13 at 8:55 pm

First?!?
No way.

#14 Mike T on 03.21.13 at 8:55 pm

‘Especially those who live or die by commission, with no pensions, sick days, overtime or pity.’

Compassion will not pay the bills, and will be in short supply….but I will offer some to those deceived by the cartel.

It’s a learning lesson for the losers in this.

#15 Ford Prefect on 03.21.13 at 8:55 pm

In the Comox Valley (Vancouver Island) despite a huge run up in listings and slow sales, relatively high prices here have held. Until now.

The rush for the exits appears to have begun. Yesterday on Craigslist two bare properties, located on the edge of the provincial Liberal government and Courtenay council backed “Jewel in the Crown” (local council description) subdivision, which a year ago were listed for around $600k each are now asking $339k and $349k vs. assessed value of $431k and $437k or 22% below assessment.

This level of drop far exceeds the claims of the local real estate powers that be that everything is steady as she goes.

#16 Tim on 03.21.13 at 8:55 pm

Most houses on the MLS sight in Vancouver and Victoria are not significantly cheaper.

#17 mark on 03.21.13 at 8:57 pm

And

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:wuBvHyrzF88J:whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.com/2013/03/statistics-removed-from-discussion.html+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au

#18 kenken on 03.21.13 at 9:01 pm

can anyone elaborate on this:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/budget-2013-ottawa-moves-to-curtail-housing-risks/article10111029/

I am not sure I understand what more is being done and how this will ‘curtail’ housing risk!

#19 Toronto_CA on 03.21.13 at 9:01 pm

It sounds like BC is really starting to see a US style crash happen. Screw a correction, those are some drastic changes.

I hope the correction comes eastwards and we can get back to building Canada’s economy on producing goods and services and not from a credit bubble.

#20 Tom on 03.21.13 at 9:03 pm

This is getting tiresome More media lying and manipulation in real estate pimping.
Step forward The Province in todays “Business” section

http://www.theprovince.com/business/mortgages/Buying+your+home+should+enjoyable/8130388/story.html

Here we have the very hot young blonde and even with a twin sister who was oh so slightly bewildered by the process of purchasing her first home that she felt the need, nay the calling to endevor to assist and advise other wayward lost puppies..er souls in navigating the trying times of purchasing their first home, shes like a an evangelical for enjoyment, She shared her thoughts in an “interview” with the reporter. And the reporter touched up her photo to get that real soft focus angelic thing going on.

In paragraph 5 we learn that she is actually a used house salesperson for the ReMax cartel. Fair enough Then we are reminded again that this hottie has a twin sister. Her sister isnt a UHSP but rather who she purchased her home with. And hey. Who wouldnt want to remind readers that this hot blonde 26 year old angel has a twin sister.

Then we are regaled with the details of her specific experience. 300k mortgage 291k condo 8% down payment from an RRSP. suspiciously specific. for a feel good human interest story of a poor girl and her twin sister and the bewilderment of lost fawns scrambling threw a dew covered meadow on a bright spring day just trying to find their way to nirvana and enjoyment of home ownership and being inspired to accept the calling of advising and assisting others. From the milk of human kindness overflowing in her angelic heart. Who wouldnt want to be her, or be her mother, or be the guy that the reporter keeps emphasizing the twin thing to.

As my nausea was increasing and my cynicism meter was red lining i came to the punchline at the end of the “article” that is featured in the BUSINESS section of the Vancouver Province.
• To be featured in the Province Focus pages, please go to theprovince.com/focus
This link directs you to the advertising opportunities page of Pacific Newspapers.

Bought and paid for realtor advertisement with no mention that its an ad. Rather it is purposely disguised as a human interest story. FML

#21 Dr. WAYNE on 03.21.13 at 9:22 pm

Is there no way to bring all the ‘frankennumber HPI’ BS out so more of the general public can see the scam, other than your blog???

By the way … ‘data’ is plural … so the sentence should be:

“You should know that after ‘these’ data ‘were’ published … “

#22 att0m on 03.21.13 at 9:23 pm

A realtor knocked on my door yesterday (I guess they are going door to door now?) in Burlington, Ontario and trumpeted that it is a seller’s market, not enough inventory to sell!.. But I did some research and found prices have gone up in the area about 25% in the past 5 years.. so it seems anyone who bought more than 5 years ago should be fine barring a 25% price crash.. is this a likely scenario in the GTA, Garth? I just can’t see this happening.

#23 Chopper on 03.21.13 at 9:24 pm

Great article Garth exposing the fraudsters A.K.A realtors.
The easy life for realturds is over, they need to get a real job and stop scamming people.

But some people are too stupid and deserve to be relieved of their cash.

There is a saying, “a fool and his money are soon parted”

Let the correction begin.

#24 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.21.13 at 9:25 pm

@ #4 JO on 03.21.13 at 8:44 pm

Now, see the 2013 budget document, page 145, gov’t will begin plans to expand tools for them to deal with broke banks in the unlikely case it happens in Canada..and yes, the main idea is that a tool would be used to convert “very rapidly” certain bank liabilities in order to bail in the banks…so i will be emailing my MP for details on what that means…I don’t have GICs and i do not think we will need to deal with a broke bank but could it be that anyone with more than 100K in savings will have a portion of the savings used to recapitalize a bank ????
____________________

hmmm… maybe this is the *real* plan for how CDIC would cover accounts/GICs in the event of a bank failure?

No wonder CDIC only has $400M or so in assets… they know that they don’t really need anything when they can pillage savings accounts on a whim.

#25 City that smells like it sounds on 03.21.13 at 9:28 pm

Prices in Regina will remain steady as its just finally caught up to where they should have been all along.

#26 Victoria Real Estate Update on 03.21.13 at 9:37 pm

Hello to all of you Victoria readers. I’m that Victoria girl and I’m here once again to share with you what I have learned about the housing market in Victoria. Victoria’s housing bubble has definitively burst and has started its major correction.

I’ve calculated the SFH 3-month average and 3-month median price changes by area, comparing prices from about 10 months ago to current prices.

Oak Bay:
Average (-13.2%) since April 2012///// median (-6.8%) since April 2012.

Victoria:
Average (-14.7%) since July 2012///// median (-14.1%) since May 2012.

Saanich East:
Average (-11.8%) since July 2012//// median (-9.3%) since July 2012

Saanich West:
Average (-15.1%) since April 2012////median (-16.0%) since April 2012

Central Saanich:
Average (-11.1%) since March 2012///// median (-9.6) since March 2012

Waterfront:
Average (-21.9%) since May 2012///// median (-25.9%) since May 2012

Esquimalt:
Average (-12.9%) since October 2012///// median (-12.2%) since November 2012

More sales would have been better for some areas, however, this information gives us a very good look at how much prices have declined so far. The correction for any one area might actually be more severe or less severe, however, the big picture is quite clear. Prices in all areas, including Oak Bay, are definitely on the way down.

If you are thinking of buying in Victoria, now is not the time. Much lower prices are on the way. Victoria is still in a housing price bubble. Most of you are probably aware that the U.S. cities that experienced the biggest price gains were the cities that crashed the hardest.

In early 2007 this Los Angeles house was valued at $443 K. By early 2012, its value was $151 K. Los Angeles and Victoria had similar price run-ups. Victoria will experience its own major price correction.

Renting right now is a no-brainer as prices continue to decline. Within 1.5 to 2 years, houses will be selling for much lower prices in Victoria. It will be worth the wait.

Until next time – cheers!

#27 Rob Smith on 03.21.13 at 9:42 pm

Garth, I’m getting concerned about your safety because the resident realtor smoking man seems a little more hostile as of late. I guess exposing him and his ilk is a little hard on the lil turd, nothing a few more shots of watered down makers mark wont cure.

#28 Fleabitten Monkey on 03.21.13 at 9:44 pm

When a sinking real estate industry can have that dramatic an effect on an economy, gee, maybe that is a pretty good indication something on a larger scale has to change. A pretty poor indicator of the strength of the national economy.

#29 Smoking Man on 03.21.13 at 9:46 pm

This post is as per Herbs request
But the This last sentence up top also helped inspire this post.

“Many people will lose their work. Some deserving.”

Herb how is this for starters.

You remind me of my late Father in law, a huge man from Glasgow, his trade, welding. He never liked me back then much, as I was a blue collar rivet bucker with supped up 69 cheval and attitude.

Is it my fault my grandfather was a wealthy shipping magnet from Greece, my mom brought me up with the same arrogance as other elite off spring.

My crime in the big bustards eyes, I didn’t act blue collar, never respected the machine like he did, I never wagged my tail to please the boss man, if he ask for a wag, he was spit on.

After all I wasn’t brought up that way, even though the Nazi’s sunk my grandfather’s ship and his brother took all the loot leaving my grandmother here 5 kids penniless, refuges port Halifax here we come.

I was brought up rich, even though we were poor. Being Rich is feeling special……..

Back to the big bustard, get this, my wife, his youngest daughter pregnant with our first kid, mortgaged to the eyeballs and I am about to go on strike. He’s say to me, “now you little get, ha, you’re going to know what suffering is all about”, just looked this big ass killer right in the face and said. “No I’m not”

I was worried , not because of potentially not having money but letting fat bustard have the last laugh. So I begged a friend that had a buddy that owned and storm door company, please need this guy to hire me.

I show up at the buddy operation wanting to cut aluminum, the prick doesn’t give me a job, he gives me a catalogue, and a price list, told me to go door to door and get people to buy them. ‘This is how much you can make if you sell and install.” My first weekend in business I made 2 month’s salary as a dehavilland aircraft rivet bucker, and Herb you know the pay was good back then.
Never looked back,

As for Fat bustard, he was proud of me and all the crazy shit I have accomplished and done, his youngest daughter never had to work, and took care of the family, he loved that. We became close near his end…I miss golfing and going to the track with him and all the his crazy ranger soccer fans…………….He was a beauty…

The reason Herb, You don’t like me is because I like myself . Which tells me you don’t like yourself.

#30 John in Mtl on 03.21.13 at 9:49 pm

Meanwhile… in Britain, the Cameron gov’t has come full circle and declares it will not try more austerity measures to cure the economy. Nope, instead they will spend, print and bubble their way out because it seems to work the US.

Quote: “…Britain has decided to create a new bubble in house prices and mortgage borrowing….” “…by creating a British equivalent of government-guaranteed Fannie Mae mortgages to offer what the U.S. would describe as “sub-prime loans.” …

… “in short, Britain will imitate the off-balance sheet financing of Fannie Mae that helped to trigger the 2008 crisis, and will use this mechanism to create £130 billion of “high loan-to-value mortgages over three years,” which will be much more leveraged than Fannie Mae’s “conforming” loans. (The U.S. equivalent of this sum, in relation to GDP, would be roughly $1.5 trillion.) This new policy can be criticized on several grounds — for example financial imprudence, or inflating house prices or unfairly subsidizing borrowers — but excessive austerity is not among them.”

Full article here: http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2013/03/21/even-britain-has-now-abandoned-austerity/

Hum.. curing debt with more debt. ’tis how the world turns. The game must continue at all costs! even with outright stealing (NZ, Cyprus and soon at a local branch near you courtesy the Harperites)

J ohn

#31 Gladiator on 03.21.13 at 9:51 pm

Garth, you are the Nigel farage of Canada. I would vote for you because you tell it as it is.

One more thing: my wife works part time at an upscale clothing store in Yorkdale mall and got her hours reduced by 50% this week because, as her manager told her, “the market is dead”. It feels like someone turned off the tap of customers or sumthin’. The consumer is hurting… The crash in house prices is almost here.

#32 Oceanside on 03.21.13 at 9:56 pm

#15 Ford Prefect on 03.21.13 at 8:55 pm
In the Comox Valley (Vancouver Island) despite a huge run up in listings and slow sales, relatively high prices here have held. Until now.
_____________________________________________
So far this month (21 days) there have been 78 completed sales in the Comox Valley including Black Creek, Mt. Washington etc…All but 7 were under $400,000. Same time in 2012 there were 81 sales with 15 over $400,000. Slow but not dead. Not much inventory of decent homes in the $400-$500K range. Much the same for Qualicum and Parksville. Everybody is holding back “waiting for things to improve” Going to be a lot of disappointed vendors come this fall.

#33 Smoking Man on 03.21.13 at 10:02 pm

#27 Rob Smith on 03.21.13 at 9:42 pm
Garth, I’m getting concerned about your safety because the resident realtor smoking man seems a little more hostile as of late. I guess exposing him and his ilk is a little hard on the lil turd, nothing a few more shots of watered down makers mark wont cure.
……………………………………………….

Seriously ROD? Realtor? thats a job.

I don’t do jobs, thats for rentels.. I do hobby, show up, everyone loves me.

#34 DJB on 03.21.13 at 10:03 pm

Any speculation as to why the Whisperer had to remove those two web pages? Is the cartel that powerful?

#35 Smoking Man on 03.21.13 at 10:06 pm

#21 Dr. WAYNE on 03.21.13 at 9:22 pm
Is there no way to bring all the ‘frankennumber HPI’ BS out so more of the general public can see the scam, other than your blog???

By the way … ‘data’ is plural … so the sentence should be:

“You should know that after ‘these’ data ‘were’ published … “
………………………………………………………………

Dr wayne the herd wont beilive it, critical thinking stripped out but the school master….Good luck with that fantacy..

#36 Retired Boomer - WI on 03.21.13 at 10:07 pm

As stated unemployment, fear, and uncertainty causes Real Estate prices to melt…often quite far…. it is also a great time to look at buying stocks. I said LOOK AT buying not necessarily to buy yet.

Have the feeling a great buying opportunity awaits 6 months or so out on the time line….for stocks.

I have no clue IF RE will ever be a “great buy” in the near term, but I highly doubt it, unless you find a distressed seller.

#37 Contrarian on 03.21.13 at 10:10 pm

So, Garth, how do you feel about teranet numbers?

#38 Patiently Waiting on 03.21.13 at 10:11 pm

Wow just saw this sale come in today. Sold more than $1 million below asking price in former HAM heaven White Rock … wholly cow things are changing …

http://mlslink.mlxchange.com/DotNet/Pub/EmailView.aspx?r=1420593786&s=BRC&t=BRC

pw

#39 Smoking Man on 03.21.13 at 10:26 pm

Why are you dogs so concern with lying, scam’s, fibs, un truths.

It is what it is, get over it. Its called business..

Tell my your employer doesn’t have crafty little sales people who don’t always quite tell the truth, but who’s actions, bring home the bacon, and you get to keep a wee slice of it.

Grow up and learn to scam yourselves. Stop whining..

#40 Granpabroon on 03.21.13 at 10:29 pm

Does anyone else here think #26 Victoria Real Estate Update (Victoria Girl) is soooo not really a girl.

I am getting such a thai ladyboy type vibe here from the way he/she types.

Further, he/she posts just that that guy who used to post the same blurbs everyday about ‘realtors in an all out panic’ type of posts.

Now I believe full well RE prices will be much much lower in the next few years, but #26, if you are really a dude, you don’t need to pretend to be ‘Victoria Girl’ just to get your point across.

Cheers

#41 Granpabroon on 03.21.13 at 10:31 pm

Edit for my last post

I can’t damn well spell/proofread posts typing on galaxy s3

Sorry *

#42 TRON on 03.21.13 at 10:35 pm

22 att0m on 03.21.13 at 9:23 pm
A realtor knocked on my door yesterday (I guess they are going door to door now?)
_______________________________________________

I’ll assume you’re under 45 by that ‘I guess they are going door to door now?’ statement. Before this housing boom it was common for realtors to go door to door to get listings. In fact, if you didn’t do that you starved. It’s called being a salesman and back before homes were a commodity to flip and make money salesman used to list and sell homes. It was a respected profession that today is only practiced by a select few old timers and their proteges.

#43 Tom Vu on 03.21.13 at 10:35 pm

Someone pull stake out of Dr Wankers heart?

#44 Smartalox on 03.21.13 at 10:35 pm

@ djb, copyright is copyright, if you want to play, you have to pay.

@ gladiator, with Canada’s HELOC culture, every other forms of spending will crash first, then finally RE, which will crash last, and crash hardest.

#45 renters rule on 03.21.13 at 10:35 pm

@#12 & 17 Mark

Awesome, thanks dude!!

The RE cartel is so slimy — nothing to see here, shuffle along sheeple.

They have no idea who they are dealing with – the rest of us are not nearly as stoopid as they themselves are… karma is a bee-atch.

#46 renters rule on 03.21.13 at 10:40 pm

@#34

I believe that the cartel “owns” the stats. Therefore, they restrict access to the data, and also for the data that is accessed, they control what the data may be “used” for; using the data to inform the public about the unfolding debacle would definitely be viewed as a major no-no — they were probably able to require the poster or the site itself to exsponge the “copyrighted” data….as the cartel OWNS THE DATA. Convenient, eh?

They are devious, unconscionable, slimy turds.

#47 Carly on 03.21.13 at 10:43 pm

Hello Garth! First time poster, long time reader. Just wanted to say thank you so much for this blog, as an almost 30 year old I am constantly asked when I will buy a home, my response has always been I can’t afford one, to which people tell me I’m crazy for “throwing my money away on rent”. I now have hard data and I have turned a lot of people onto your blog because of this. I had never heard of a diversified portfolio prior to reading your blog and have been concentrating on paying off my $65,000 student loans (last payment in April!). I am one of the fools who placed money in TFSA and RRSP savings, but now I know what I should be doing. I just wanted to add that I have been a long time MLS lurker, currently living in Calgary and it is not different here, over the last 6 months I have noticed a decent drop in prices, one year ago searching for an apartment under $200,000 was laughable, now I’m finding at least 100 liveable apartments for that price. It is not different here. I was wondering though do you think rent prices will drop as well, or maybe go up slightly if people are realizing they should wait to buy? Thank you for your advice and making me feel like the smart one for not buying a home at an obscene cost!

#48 Freedom First on 03.21.13 at 10:44 pm

I remember when house prices were peaking, and a young guy with a wife and a kid, and trying to have another baby, mortgaged to the hilt to buy a house. He also had bought a new car on credit just before the house purchase. I asked him if he was worried at all carrying that amount of debt. He just laughed and told me, “why should I worry, if I lose everything, I never had it before anyways”. Now, I am a guy with compassion and empathy for my fellow man, but not one with that attitude, because if he doesn’t care, why should anybody else when the crying starts? Great post Garth. thank you!

#49 Onemorething on 03.21.13 at 10:46 pm

You can manipulate most of the market however when it comes to job losses, the party ends!

#50 Cory on 03.21.13 at 10:54 pm

Over leveraged real estate buyers will likely be the only ones that survive this oncoming financial collapse. Savers are about to be obliterated even more than they have been….wiped out. Better get your money out of the CAD banks and keep it in your possession.

What an idiot comment. — Garth

#51 claudius emperor on 03.21.13 at 10:54 pm

That section on page 145 looks really strange.
———————————————–
The Government proposes to implement a ―bail-in‖ regime for systemically important banks. This regime will be designed to ensure that, in the unlikely event that a systemically important bank depletes its capital, the bank can be recapitalized and returned to viability through the
very rapid conversion of certain bank liabilities into regulatory capital.
This will reduce risks for taxpayers. The Government will consult stakeholders on how best to implement a bail-in regime in Canada.
Implementation timelines will allow for a smooth transition for affected institutions, investors and other market participants.
—————————————————

Nigel farage is a populist and a Nazi.

#52 McLovin on 03.21.13 at 10:55 pm

“16 Tim on 03.21.13 at 8:55 pm
Most houses on the MLS sight in Vancouver and Victoria are not significantly cheaper.”

And most houses are not selling. Duh.

#53 nocte_volens on 03.21.13 at 10:58 pm

#23 Chopper
There is a saying, “a fool and his money are soon parted”

I have always wondered how they got together in the first place.

#54 Notta Sheeple on 03.21.13 at 10:59 pm

“…. This data is compared to the revised numbers from last year, and not the raw number from that period…..”
=====================

Kind of like comparing Oh Henry bars and dog turds.

At first glance, they both look the same floating in the swimming pool, but, after a while the Real® truth comes out.

Hence the professional recognition, REALTURD®.

#55 Rob Smith on 03.21.13 at 10:59 pm

#33 Smoking Man on 03.21.13 at 10:02 pm

Seriously ROD? Realtor? thats a job.

I don’t do jobs, thats for rentels.. I do hobby, show up, everyone loves me

————————————

Keep the ROD off your mind for a sec and pay attention to your clients needs for once.

#56 claudius emperor on 03.21.13 at 11:00 pm

There you go:
————————————————————–
Bank liabilities are the debts incurred by a bank, what a bank owes. While a bank is bound to have traditional business liabilities and debts (for electricity, office supplies, employee wages), the bulk of a bank’s liabilities are financial–legal claims or IOUs issued by the bank. The most important liability category is deposits–financial wealth that others have placed with the bank for safekeeping. The bank owes this wealth to these depositors.
——————————————–

#57 Canadian Watchdog on 03.21.13 at 11:00 pm

@Axxman Here's a table of TREB's revisions . Was bored of tracking this data, but determined that every reporting month sheds an average of 3% off sales in 6-8 months time.

Aside from that, here's one of many examples (reported here many times) of what else is boosting GTA's (and REBGV, CREB) average price: MLS sale on March 18 to be completed in the fall/winter of 2014 , yet it will be counted in this month's average price.

One's perception of the market is distorted by the input numbers they control. The market is by far in much worse condition then officially reported. I'm a stats freak and even I know that when bubble of this size rolls over, instincts will inform you much better then statistics aggregated by the parties of self-interest.

This market has escalated to DEFCON 2 level. Stand clear.

 

 

#58 NotaGreaterFool on 03.21.13 at 11:06 pm

At your Toronto presentation, you stated you may be downgrading your Toronto forecast from 10% to 15% correction. What do you think now?

#59 claudius emperor on 03.21.13 at 11:07 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/budget-2013-ottawa-moves-to-curtail-housing-risks/article10111029/

Talking about insurance: can someone please present to the public the risk model of CMHC?
Thank you.
And I won’t expect anything to the tune of: approved by the OSFI

#60 over the pond on 03.21.13 at 11:09 pm

Is something going on at the moment. Whispers from the Edge of the Rainforest has had it’s post pulled. Real Estate Talks hasn’t mentioned the figures being removed (I would have thought at least the regular bulls on the forum would have gloated if they were pulled for being erroneous information). And probably in an unrelated matter, Vancouver Price Drop hasn’t had it’s weekly update (although observer has been active in the comments field from last week).

As the village whisperer has denied the pulled posts are anything to do with being threatened with legal actions etc, I can only presume that ‘HAM’ was initially posting something that was wrong.

#61 Mr Buyer on 03.21.13 at 11:09 pm

Who represents the people? Sales are backed by CMHC and as such the people of Canada have a right to direct access to these raw sales figures. As for this masking of the true market where are the crown attorneys in all this. We have clearly crossed over into criminal enterprise and likely a long time ago. I am having difficulty pinpointing the best charges to be laid against which entities but I will leave that to the experts. This is a great opportunity here to introduce accountability and hopefully decrease the chances of this plague besetting our children…As your lives get ground to dust keep a clear picture in your mind what entities have squeezed the life blood out of your families. The Harper government with its CMHC mortgage rule changes and loosening of banking oversight to instigate an exponential phase of growth in the Real Estate Bubble, the banking industry in its wink and nod approvals of every warm body sitting across from them at ever increasing obscene mortgage amounts, the Real Estate boards and Sales teams exaggerating numbers up and down to induce further sales and our traditional mass media almost entirely corrupted by advertising revenue…The wheels are coming off and in your suffering remember these entities…Yes they will blame you the purchaser for making the purchase but you were cajoled and misinformed every step of the way

#62 Investx on 03.21.13 at 11:18 pm

“The raw price data is proprietary to the Vancouver real estate board, ”

Are you referring to average and mean figures? How are such basic calculations proprietary?

#63 Van city on 03.21.13 at 11:19 pm

Garth, when I read those Richmond numbers they didn’t seem to pass the smell test. And sure enough, they’re fabricated, probably why they were pulled. Terra Nova only had 3 SFH sales in Feb., all for more than $1m.
Prices are dropping in Richmond, but not down 50% in one year. Surprised you would post that twice without fact checking.

#64 Vivek on 03.21.13 at 11:20 pm

I hope this correction/crash doesn’t completely derail the economy. There was some research from StatsCan that basically said consumer spending rises (and falls) in correlation to house prices. Consumer spending is a big part of the Canadian economy.

Also 7% (or so) GDP contribution comes from the construction sector which may also fall if there was housing crash/correction. From there it will just spread to every sector.

There are many of us who weren’t involved in this housing mishap that will be affected in case that happens. Bloody unfair…

#65 HAWK on 03.21.13 at 11:26 pm

#4 JO on 03.21.13 at 8:44 pm

============================

I agree completely and think you have judged the clause correctly. It is extremely worrying and would be criminal if enforced.

But what I wonder is how much corruption by bankers and government will it take before the public reach their breaking point all over the western world.

The fact that they have not already reached it, is what I find mystifying and worrisome.

#66 Ethics — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate | The Affluent Boomer™ on 03.21.13 at 11:28 pm

[...] via Ethics — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate. [...]

#67 This Is My Story on 03.21.13 at 11:29 pm

Looked at the 5400 sq ft home and the wife isn’t interested. To big. Now what am I going to get for her birthday!!!! He was asking $3000 per month, I offered $2500 with post dated cheques and he jumped at it.

#68 claudius emperor on 03.21.13 at 11:30 pm

and the cherry in the cake:

A government official said an alternative plan to raise the €5.8bn [orginally to have come from bank savings] had been drafted and was to be presented to the troika, most likely on Wednesday. The plan would raise money from domestic sources, including pension plans and subsidiaries of foreign banks active in Cyprus.

Cyprus Proposed Conversion of pension fund assets into govt bonds-sources

#69 Snowboid on 03.21.13 at 11:30 pm

#29 Smoking Man on 03.21.13 at 9:46 pm…

What does “…a dehavilland aircraft rivet bucker…” have to do with engineering development and 10 years at the drafting table?

You are indeed a great story-teller, and I’m sure your upcoming book will become a best-seller.

#70 This Is My Story on 03.21.13 at 11:33 pm

Also people wanting to see the house at 6-6:30 tonight were 15 minutes late told them to take a F#*%ing hike.
That felt nice.
Taking tomorrow off for my wifes birthday.

#71 AprilNewwest on 03.21.13 at 11:33 pm

#32 Oceanside – Lots of decent looking houses listed for under 250.000 in and around the Comox Valley area.

#72 Mr Buyer on 03.21.13 at 11:35 pm

That’s my big play. Buying a house. My life on earth and all the knowledge gained and lost is to have its greatest manifestation in the simple purchase of a house. Think of how much of my life force is dedicated to the the profit of others with scant left to try and make this clear fact less so for my children. Art, Science, knowledge all subservient to what and to what end? Am I eventually leaving this place better than I found it. There has been no chance of that for a long long time. I see science as our truly greatest expression of the human spirit. It is greatly tarnished and widely held in disdain with lesser types exerting their dominion over this highest of arts. But what are we lesser types to do. We cannot all soar but we can all attempt to do so. Are we to simply eat, work, worry and die. I think eating, working, worrying, learning and dying is far better. I am not above misleading somebody for whatever greater good I am beholden to at any given time but I am loath to do so. It is a smelly thing that I resist embracing at every turn. Lying to somebody to get their money, that is life? That is the big secret. While much better that clubbing somebody to death to get their money, I cannot help thinking we are only partially realizing our potential.

#73 claudius emperor on 03.21.13 at 11:36 pm

Nigel Farage and the neo Nazis

Clarifying: he is a Nazi according to some…
http://ukiptruth.blogspot.ca/2010/09/nigel-farage-and-neo-nazis.html

I personally like his boldness while disagreeing completely on certain topic.

#74 Nicholas P on 03.21.13 at 11:42 pm

Nigel Farage, eh?

I wonder what Garth thinks about the work British politician, leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) and Member of the European Parliament since 2010.

Mr. Turner?

#75 Joe Somebody on 03.21.13 at 11:47 pm

My kid, grade 11, came form school today and said that teacher at school told them about babyboomer’s retirement and future real estate correction.

#76 The American on 03.21.13 at 11:49 pm

Garth, I’ve two questions you may be able to answer. Of course, there is no way to hold anyone to the fire when it comes to predictions. (1) Could you share with us your predictions surrounding Canadian real estate values vs. U.S. real estate values in way of percentage decline over the same amount of time from each country’s peak to trough? (2) Also, would you be able to share your thoughts surrounding the anticipated equity loss, in terms of percentage and average dollar amount, to the owner(s) of the property within Canada vs. that of what has been experienced in the U.S. so far?

#77 Dave on 03.21.13 at 11:50 pm

Attention everybody!

This is why Saskatoon real estate is booming – the generosity of the communities there is astounding.

http://saskatoon.kijiji.ca/c-buy-and-sell-home-outdoor-outdoor-decor-Free-1-000-000-cubic-feet-of-snow-W0QQAdIdZ466014978

Surely with excellent neighbors like this, property values in the entire city should remain strong through 2015, and then double in value each and every year thereafter.

The evidence is clear.

Please resume whatever it was you were doing.

#78 Axxman on 03.21.13 at 11:53 pm

Funny how TREB goes to the nth degree for precision when it works to their advantage but not when it goes the other way. Example: The sales growth numbers are calculated as: Current Year Sales Unadjusted to Prior Year Sales Adjusted. Since sales in the comparative years always only get adjusted down by backing out broken deals, they are happy to continue to live with the lack of precision. In reality they should calculate it as: Current Year Sales Adjusted to Average Deal Breakage rate versus Prior Year Sales Adjusted for actual broken deals. This is more apples to apples but – if you did this using the average deal breakage rate of 3% – then the 15.4% YoY sales drop in Feb 2013, would actually be a 17.9% YoY sales drop – and if you’re TREB – that kind of precision just wouldn’t do.

#79 Affluent Boomer on 03.21.13 at 11:53 pm

The chart at the link below shows average Vancouver Detached SFD, Townhouse and Condo prices. In February 2013, detached house prices stopped dropping and ticked up 0.1% M/M after plunging 9 straight months for a 15.4% or $163,800 evaporation of equity off the April 2012 high. This compares dramatically to the panic correction into March 2009 when the sell-off was 16% in 8 months and a loss of equity of $122,900. Both corrections have happened in similar time, velocity and percentage drop. Will this pause end the right side of the Eiffel Tower sell off? Data from other markets suggest otherwise. http://theaffluentboomer.wordpress.com/2013/03/20/vancouver-chart-on-brian-ripleys-canadian-housing-price-charts-and-plunge-o-meter-chpc-biz/

#80 Richard and Zeus on 03.22.13 at 12:11 am

Read page 145 of the 2013 budget and let me know what you think..
————————————————–
Oh but Zeus and I are conspiracy theorists when we bring stuff like this up. Yeah…… Cuz history can NEVER repeat cuz we got internet…we got iPhones…..we iz smart now…yuk yuk…sometimes I’m embarrassed to be human.

#81 Mr Buyer on 03.22.13 at 12:14 am

Family. I am to embrace the black arts, to prey upon others for the benefit of my family. The older I get the less repugnant that notion becomes. Am I to leave my children with nothing to defend themselves? Is that my big play? To purse my children. Is that more important that most any other consideration? I really wonder sometimes. I know enough to say comfortably that most everything and everyone is long on hot air and perception and short on sticks, stones, meat, potatoes and anything else resembling true substance.

#82 Keeping the Faith on 03.22.13 at 12:15 am

Stevenson …. BPOE …
HOW DO YOU LIKE ME NOW?????

As flavor flave said, YEAH BOYZZZZZ!!!!

#83 blok existentialist on 03.22.13 at 12:21 am

Go, Whisperer, go! My god, REAL reporting at last!

#84 Richard and Zeus on 03.22.13 at 12:29 am

The reason Herb, You don’t like me is because I like myself . Which tells me you don’t like yourself.
———————————————————–
Herb is a jealous overpaid Govt worker. He all but admits it…..

#85 Dean Mason on 03.22.13 at 12:33 am

I read in the Financial Post today that the federal government is thinking of issuing 40 year Canada Bonds. Canada 30 year bonds are currently yielding only 2.52%. I guess they want to lock in the low interest rates for 40 years. I would not buy them. I can get a 5 year GIC CDIC insured at 2.85% at ICICI Bank (Canada). TFSA’s,RRSP’s 5 year GIC at 3.15%. All $100,000 CDIC insured separately so $300,000 total.

The same misinformed buyers of Canada Savings Bonds look likes who their hoping will buy them. I’m guessing a 40 year Canada Bond would yield at most 2.80% but who knows.

#86 Tony on 03.22.13 at 12:40 am

Up but this is due to stupid clueless people who pay a huge premium to buy new instead of resale condos and resale houses. This absurd premium doesn’t exist in provinces such as Ontario. I guess you could call the Calgarians the daft.

http://www.bobtruman.com/SFH_DailyMonthly_Summaries/page_1869385.html

http://www.bobtruman.com/Condo_DailyMonthly_Summaries/page_1869405.html

#87 The Patient on 03.22.13 at 12:47 am

#4 JO writes:

“Now, see the 2013 budget document, page 145, gov’t will begin plans to expand tools for them to deal with broke banks in the unlikely case it happens in Canada..and yes, the main idea is that a tool would be used to convert “very rapidly” certain bank liabilities in order to bail in the banks…”
———————————————

Here’s what the Budget, p.145 actually states:

“The Government proposes to implement a ―bail
-in regime for systemically important banks. This regime will be designed to ensure that, in the unlikely event that a systemically important bank depletes its
capital, the bank can be recapitalized and re turned to viability through the very rapid conversion of certain bank liabilities into regulatory capital.
This will reduce risks for taxpayers. The Government will consult stakeholders on how best to implement a
bail-in regime in Canada.
Implementation timelines will allow for
a smooth transition for affected
institutions, investors and other market participants.”
———————————

That Canada has begun to devise a “bail-in regime” in the “unlikely event” of a Canadian bank failure is either a prudent, fair-weather exercise in crisis prevention/management or a very troubling sign that our government is (now publicly) planning for a Cyprus/Lehman moment. Or both!

There was a debate on this blog, more than a year ago, about Canadian banks’ reserve requirements. I couldn’t recall what the correct answer was, so I researched it and was shocked to discover that it is ZERO!

Garth, can you please confirm that is correct?

#88 Tom Vu on 03.22.13 at 12:57 am

Hold up crucifix east of Great Divide

Then roll with Vultch “no subject to” prices.

#89 GN7 on 03.22.13 at 1:00 am

Garth,

Are realtors allowed to share data and sales details online?

#90 Turtle on 03.22.13 at 1:10 am

Re: #29 Smoking Man

Good story, Smoking Man. Thank you.

Even if Smoking Man is not a real person, there should be such a character on a blog. Real estate news and letters are so depressing, that without Smoking Man’s persona and optimism it would be very hard to come here every day.

Some of you guys here have a very little patience… and no sense of humor.

#91 Emperialz on 03.22.13 at 1:14 am

How do you see this impacting the market?

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/03/21/federal-budget-2013-canada-cmhc/

#92 GN7 on 03.22.13 at 1:32 am

Garth,

Are those Richmond stats even reliable? I heard only several homes changed hands and they were lower priced homes.

So if there were 3 sales,

550k, 688k, 888k So this is your median at 688k.
How reliable is that and will I get a Terra Nova home for that price? Only a town home. So all price measurements including the hpi can be misleading.

#93 Dirk TheDaring on 03.22.13 at 1:36 am

Dont fear, Dirk (and google) to the rescue:

Cache:http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2013/03/take-look-at-these-secret-statistics.html

Garth, you should throw up the link in the main article above.

#94 observer on 03.22.13 at 1:59 am

Crea and CMHC fudging up the numbers will only make matters worst in the long run.

I believe prices were actually falling last may but CREA actually made prices look good. It pretty apparent what inflated the bubble in first place.
– Low interest rates
– CMHC insured mortgages
– Cheap Money
– Canadians Leveraging themselves
– Media Propaganda, hype and fear.
– No HAM, never was

The can Hide the numbers or try to re-inflate the bubble, but it won’t work because with 70 + home ownerships coming from Canadian . The well is running dry.
– presently own 70+
– Unemployed 7% –
– Retired or gave up and will downsize or sell 20%
– Too broke to buy – 20%

So who is left who can actually purchase a home?
Mabey 2-5% but what percentage needs to sell or is retiring ? (20%)
-

#95 Joe Calgary on 03.22.13 at 1:59 am

The government and the media are doing a great job keeping the sheep in the dark about what’s happening in Canadian real estate. My feeling is that the price adjustment won’t be anywhere near what we saw in the US because the average simpleton still thinks ‘renters are losers’. You are right about the panic though, one of my clients which happens to be one of Calgarys most successful realtors came to my office today pumping real estate and saying I shoulda bought 2 years ago, and how I could have made money, I told him he’s drinking the kool-aid, not sure if he knew what I meant.

#96 observer on 03.22.13 at 2:09 am

19 Toronto_CA on 03.21.13 at 9:01 pm

It sounds like BC is really starting to see a US style crash happen. Screw a correction, those are some drastic changes.

I hope the correction comes eastwards and we can get back to building Canada’s economy on producing goods and services and not from a credit bubble.
======================

No we wouldn’t have a US style crash. We will have a Canadian Style Crash.

US can print money, so far without devaluing it currency. Canada cannot. Because of the QE’s the US government can buy bad mortages to help backstop the decline.

I don’t think we have the same mechanism in place. So far we are replicating the US crash, it started slow then Boom, it accelerated but still took several years. Only problem for Canada is: once the price barriers has been reached and broken, there will be nothing to slow down this derailed train!

#97 Rob too lazy to properly insert a link on 03.22.13 at 3:23 am

Off topic but I won’t miss the snow but our Blue Collar Workman will.

Real life Mr Plow

http://bluecollarworkman.com/the-real-life-mr-plow/

#98 Buy? Curious? on 03.22.13 at 3:59 am

Ever play Realtor Rodeo? It’s whereby you call a real estate agent up and try to keep them on the phone as long as you can. I actually take it a step further. I try to see if I can get them to drive me around the city. It’s a great way to learn about the city. But always be polite and give them buying signals to keep their hopes up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q16_LDI-tsU

#99 drydock on 03.22.13 at 5:10 am

Get into Bitcoin cases of scotch and bottles of ginger ale, you’ll weather the storm.

#100 betamax on 03.22.13 at 5:12 am

#6 East Van: “He told me he was a real estate agent. He needed a regular paycheque.”

Funny, true, and soon to be repeated often.

It used to be common for realtors to have second jobs, and realtors would often quit to gain a steady paycheque elsewhere. It’s only in the bubble that it became a viable profession for the incompetent.

Those days are done. I just talked to a top realtor in Vancouver and he said the spring market is as dead as Jimmy Hoffa.

#101 Frustrated Kiwi on 03.22.13 at 5:29 am

#4 JO – thanks for the shout out on our wonderful banks. Not even the first dollar of our deposits are insured here and our banks are way over exposed to real estate, so some sort of plan is clearly in order! Meanwhile our bubble continues unabated:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=10872573
My best guess is we are trailing Vancouver by about three years (the memes are pretty identical), so three years of inflation still coming to be followed by whatever is happening in Vancouver now. Move along, nothing to see here, ….

#102 Piccaso on 03.22.13 at 7:05 am

Ha Ha… The board regulars don’t like the fed tampering with the race to the bottom in interest rates for the dwindling pool of first time buyers trying to live beyond their means

http://edmontonrealestateblog.com/2013/03/edmonton-real-estate-market-weekly-update-march-1513.html#comments

#103 Stickler on 03.22.13 at 7:21 am

Bah, we should outsource the whole industry to India. Think about it:

– legal work can be done over internet & phone

– mortgage related processing, ditto

– we can even issue temporary foreign worker visas for workers to come in and do appraisals, inspections & show the properties.

#104 Danno on 03.22.13 at 7:33 am

2.89 for 5 years is nothing. My gf got just under 3% for 10 years. The race to the bottom continues.

#105 Victor V on 03.22.13 at 7:43 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/budget-2013-ottawa-moves-to-curtail-housing-risks/article10111029/

The federal budget that Finance Minister Jim Flaherty tabled Thursday aims to reduce the financial risks the government faces from the market.

It cracks down on the ability of banks to make bulk purchases of mortgage insurance to reduce their capital requirements, and also curtails the use of government-backed insurance in securities sold by the private sector.

It also lays the groundwork for a new set of risk-management rules to govern the country’s biggest banks that will reduce Ottawa’s exposure in the event that one of them failed.

Ottawa has been concerned about the growth of mortgage insurance for some time.

Last year, it capped the total amount of mortgage insurance that Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. can have in force at $600-billion.

As a result CMHC, which was already creeping up toward that level, began rationing its sale of bulk insurance while maintaining sales levels of standard mortgage insurance.

==========

Garth, will you be blogging about F’s latest moves?

#106 fancy_pants on 03.22.13 at 8:06 am

the gov’t is always heavy on the accelerator (0-40 mortgages) or heavy on the brake (tighten like a trooper). Nobody can drive this country properly.

another quirk I have is they sniff out and go heavy handed for minor issues by the little mom & pop shops but turn a blind eye to gross deception and manipulation of the big players.

I can hear the chants starting… justin.. justin.. justin..
not that that would change anything

#107 Herb on 03.22.13 at 8:07 am

Smoking Man,

didn’t ask for your biography at #29, but read it. Very revealing but won’t touch it with a nine-foot pole.

As to the “lying, scam’s, fibs, un truths [sic]” at your #39, that is precisely why I left the business world in 1959. Still detest scumbags who use them (which may explain my attitude to your persona.)

#108 bigrider on 03.22.13 at 8:10 am

Garth, how many hits per day/ week month is this site receiving these days.

Curious to know how many people are actually getting the message on mis -leading housing data

#109 maxx on 03.22.13 at 8:10 am

We’ve known the machinations of RE boards for a long time thanks to this pathetic blog and its perspicacious dawgs. (Kudos to Axxman and Garth!!)

In light of rampant sausage-meat statistics which cast a false positive light on RE values, the only course of action is to low-ball the bejesus on property. The realtard industry has forced prospective buyers into this approach.
Relying on RE board stats is fiscal suicide.

#110 Herb on 03.22.13 at 8:32 am

#84 Richard and Zeus,

I don’t want my humble self to reflect badly on government workers, so I will confess and expose my breast to your scorn: I am a superannuated soldier.

The gold-plated pension you are paying me allows me the leisure to pursue personal interests, such as slagging ideological shills like you. Needless to say, I propose to draw it as long as possible, and may even let you know when I hit the million dollar mark to enjoy your implosion.

#111 Daisy Mae on 03.22.13 at 8:46 am

“One estimate is that F’s killing of the 30-year mortgage will result in a stunning 190,000 jobs being lost between now and 2015. The bulk of those will be in the resale housing sector and 70,000 in the new-build area. That, says the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (seriously), wipes out about 80% of a full year’s worth of newly-created Canadian jobs.”

“Many people will lose their work. Some deserving.”

*******************

I’ll say! Those losing the jobs, deserve to lose the jobs.

And so, what did F accomplish by meddling? What a distasteful mess he’s created….disgusting.

Dammit!

#112 Kevin on 03.22.13 at 9:10 am

Garth, it’s just another example of the Bizarro world we’re living in, where people feel bad for unethical realtors losing their jobs, and former NDP premier Bob Rae and the union lackeys in the NDP preach about “free markets” to the Conservatives. It’s insane.

#113 Alta Lad on 03.22.13 at 9:22 am

#21 … who is this a**hole

#114 Buy? Curious? on 03.22.13 at 9:34 am

Hey Garth! Is Flaherty resigning shortly, (due to health issues and we wish him a speedy recovery) and a Harlem Shake-like cabinet shuffle to more women as he prepares to battle with the stud of studs, the baddest of the bad, the J comes before the K, Kyane. MR. JT, Just in Time! Justin Trudeau?

NO! JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE!!! Have you heard his new album? Stephen Harper is going to have to dust off his Casio keyboard piano and start practicing songs that appeal to the 18-34 age group if he wants to win the next election.

Besides, nobody takes Justin Trudeau seriously.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuZE_IRwLNI

#115 Burnt Norton on 03.22.13 at 9:42 am

54% decline?

Holy crapoly am I ever glad I found this blog 3 years ago.

#116 World Traveller on 03.22.13 at 9:44 am

Meanwhile more thievery from Spain.

http://roundtownnews.com/rtn-newsflash/item/41284-electricity-shock.html

#117 Johnny D on 03.22.13 at 9:50 am

#25 City that smells like it sounds on 03.21.13 at 9:28 pm

Prices in Regina will remain steady as its just finally caught up to where they should have been all along.

=====================================

Seriously? Are you a realtor? Price to income ratios are way out of wack with historic norms. No more CREA economics from you.

#118 Smoking Man on 03.22.13 at 9:50 am

Herb on 03.22.13 at 8:07 am
Smoking Man,didn’t ask for your biography at #29, but read it. Very revealing but won’t touch it with a nine-foot pole.

As to the “lying, scam’s, fibs, un truths [sic]” at your #39, that is precisely why I left the business world in 1959. Still detest scumbags who use them (which may explain my attitude to your persona.)

……….

Herb not every one is comfortable competing, some are destoned to serve, whether civil, or un civil. Was never my cup of tea.

I thrive in caos, hence trade floor code smithing, day trading on the side, and managing a business at the same time. Wouldn’t change a thing.

1959, you were working, you are old, I was just guessing, No one since the 60s calls there kid herb. That how I knew…

I will show you respect going forward, don’t like picking on seniors.

#119 World Traveller on 03.22.13 at 9:51 am

Another crooked story from Spain.

http://roundtownnews.com/rtn-newsflash/item/41283-using-the-uk-courts-to-win-in-spain.html

Remember folks Spain = Mexico Junior.

#120 Q on 03.22.13 at 9:57 am

A judge is ordering a family to vacate and sell their condo within 30 days! The family violated strata rules and racked up $20,000 in strata fines for making too much noise, slamming doors, spitting on neighbours and throwing a bucket of water at a woman when she was sitting on her balcony with her cats. The case made it to the courts and now the BC Supreme Court is ordering the family to vacate and sell within 30 days. What happens if they can’t find a buyer within 30 days? The way the story is worded in the Vancouver Sun, it almost sounds like the owners will be sent to jail for contempt of court if they can’t find a buyer within 30 days! There must be some contingency for a slow real estate market. But do judges even know that condos have gone illiquid and may not be able to sell within 30 days. I guess if the owners want to avoid jail time, they will be motivated to sell so they will have to reduce their price. This one will be priced to sell!

“The pair was ordered to vacate and sell their condo within 30 days. If they fail to give up the condo, the judge said, they will be arrested for contempt.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/metro/Surrey+mother+ordered+sell+condo+after+breaching+injunction/8135092/story.html

#121 Burnt Norton on 03.22.13 at 10:02 am

98 Buy? Curious? on 03.22.13 at 3:59 am

Realtor rodeo. Dude, that’s not ethical.

#122 Reality on 03.22.13 at 10:06 am

If anyone with a pulse ever bought a home on average stats alone shouldn’t be buying. I would look at recent comps and the current competition…I can see day traders pretending to be r.e. experts using across country data, but if you’re in the trenches, you’re looking at cold hard facts, real buildings and coming up with your own numbers…figures are for the engineer types who over anylize.

#123 Dupcheck on 03.22.13 at 10:31 am

#30 John in Mtl on 03.21.13 at 9:49 pm

That explains why Carnevour Carney went to England. (To show them how to do the Canadian Housing Pyramid scheme)

“Canadian Housing Style” oh yeah……what is his name, Gangnam style “PSY” should make a song about it.

#124 Steven Rowlandson on 03.22.13 at 10:35 am

The real estate industry’s in crisis mode.
How could it not be in crisis mode? They priced canadians earning pay at market wage rates out of the country and now there are next to no qualified buyers.
There is no affordable real estate in canada unless you are rich. The labor market will not pay people to buy houses and start families in the same country they were born in and work in. Therefore the only thing left is for prices to have a gigantic crash and fall all the way down to levels seen in the 1960s and 70s. Untill that happens there will be no recovery and little or no next generation of canadians.

#125 Q on 03.22.13 at 10:36 am

A man in Alberta is selling his house for bitcoins:

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/03/21/canadian-bitcoin-house-for-sale/

#126 blase on 03.22.13 at 10:47 am

Garth,

Correct me if I’m wrong on this. The Canadian banks have been giving mortgages to folks who purchase government insurance. This allows the loan to be guaranteed by CMHC, which in turns allows the banks to take those mortgages and sell them as bonds, in effect backed by the government. The banks also then buy insurance on mortgages that are over the 20% downpayment threshold, which allows these mortgages to be securitized, sold as bonds, which are in effect, guaranteed by the Canadian government. So, am I correct in saying that, in effect, most of the mortgages, both high and low ratio, are 100% backed by the Canadian taxpayer? And that, in effect, the bonds being sold are pretty much the same as Canada savings bonds, except they yield a far higher rate than CSBs or T-Bills?

ie. creating debt securities, getting them backed 100% by the government, having no economic imperative to worry about the quality of loans, having no skin in the game?

It seems at the core to be essentially the same set-up as the securitized mortgages that killed AIG, Bear Stearns, and Lehmen Brothers. Isn’t it?

#127 Axxman on 03.22.13 at 11:01 am

For those of you wondering about the term “bail-in”. The Financial Stability Board has several papers on how this works. The budget just tries to align to that. To quote the FSB “The objective of bail-in is to reduce the loss of value and the economic disruption associated
with insolvency proceedings for financial institutions, yet ensure that the costs of resolution
are borne by the financial institutions’ shareholders and unsecured creditors.” It’s really about making sure there is a respected and inclusive hierarchy for resolving a bank where those most deserving of taking the hit (shareholders and unsecured creditors) actually do take a hit before losses flow down the hierarchy (the bottom of which is depositors)

#128 jess on 03.22.13 at 11:02 am

scan and go walmart etc canadian tire etc use your own phone to shop hence change over to compartmentalize your experience seamless work and shop

mastercard in a suitcase
gov of s africa – land of gates, guns and eyeball scanners.

watch the video
http://www.fastcompany.com/3001575/social-security-and-welfare-payments-go-biometric

#129 rosie "moving backwards" on 03.22.13 at 11:05 am

Murray Dobbin is against the banks. He is, therefore, a communist. http://boundarysentinel.com/news/comment-canada’s-reckless-banks-inflate-house-price-bubble-23652#.UUxyeXBnQUX

#130 The Prophet Elijah on 03.22.13 at 11:11 am

#69 Snowboid on 03.21.13 at 11:30 pm
#29 Smoking Man on 03.21.13 at 9:46 pm…

What does “…a dehavilland aircraft rivet bucker…” have to do with engineering development and 10 years at the drafting table?

You are indeed a great story-teller, and I’m sure your upcoming book will become a best-seller.
———————————————————-
Of course, aren’t all books stamped “New York Times Best Seller”. Or maybe just for those who pay for the label? Just my experience walking through a Chapters.
LOL

#131 Doug in London on 03.22.13 at 11:11 am

So the inevitable slow down in the real estate industry is happening, and those employed in this industry will see their incomes fall or disappear. I wonder how many people in the industry saw it coming and prepared for it by saving their money or preparing for a career change? I know if I was in this industry I would have gone on a world class austerity program during the boom, saving as much of my income as possible.

#132 Ronaldo on 03.22.13 at 11:22 am

#48 Freedom First

”Now, I am a guy with compassion and empathy for my fellow man, but not one with that attitude, because if he doesn’t care, why should anybody else when the crying starts? Great post Garth. thank you!”

Right on. It was that same attitude in the U.S. where they were giving money away to anyone who had a pulse. Even their cat if they could have gotten away with it.

These people with no money, had no skin in the game and as prices went up they heloc’d their houses to the hilt and bought their toys.

When the SHTF, they simply turned theirs keys in and walked away. Wonder though if they got to keep their toys.

The people who put a downpayment on their house were the ones that took the hit the worst. They had skin in the game.

It’s no different for many young first timers here in Canada but these bank economists and other politicians you hear on the radio and TV like to make us believe otherwise. That our banks operated differently. They were more diligent. Yeah right!

Going to be lots of sorry people going forward. We havn’t seen anything yet.

#133 Johnny D on 03.22.13 at 11:26 am

#122 Reality on 03.22.13 at 10:06 am

You want to ignore stats… go nuts. Pay $500,000 for something worth $300,000. It’s your money (or debt).

And you hit the nail on the head with your “coming up with your own numbers…” comment. I think that’s what this post was all about. Just remember to pull your shorts back up after you pull those numbers from where the sun don’t shine.

#134 rosie "moving backwards" on 03.22.13 at 11:29 am

After the bubble pops it looks like this. http://i2.mail.com/252/1925252,h=425,pd=1,w=620.jpg

#135 smartalox on 03.22.13 at 11:30 am

I was listening to a radio station out of Victoria today. When an ad came on flogging condos in a development called ‘the Shire’. The copy read: “the Shire can be called lots of things… ‘the Retirement Nest Egg’ or ‘the Guaranteed Return’ for example…” Unbelievable. You can’t flog penny stocks on the radio and make such claims, because it would be unethical, but because condos are a ‘good’, not an investment (despite being described as exactly that) false or exaggerated claims are permitted.

I guess that’s how they roll in “the Shire”

#136 Ronaldo on 03.22.13 at 11:33 am

#67 This is my story –

So basically you are paying rent on a place that would be valued at around $400,000 at the high end if you had purchased it as a rental property. What could you possibly buy for that amount that was not a tear down. I’d say you did well.

#137 Paolo Di Petta, Mortgage Agent on 03.22.13 at 11:48 am

Just wanted to say that I agree with a lot of this post. In fact, I even covered a lot of it in my blog in two posts:

http://mrt.gs/MonkeyEconomics – Using the parable of the captive monkeys as a metaphor for the condo market

and

http://mrt.gs/3StepsToTrust – Which provides a 3 step qualifying procedure to determining if someone’s opinion is worth trusting

Glad to share, and keep up the great posts, Garth!

#138 Oceanside on 03.22.13 at 11:53 am

71 AprilNewwest on 03.21.13 at 11:33 pm
#32 Oceanside – Lots of decent looking houses listed for under 250.000 in and around the Comox Valley area.
——————————————————————-
You are correct, there are 44 houses under $250,000 and 78 between $400,000 and $500,000. Will be interesting to see the situation this fall.

#139 Richard and Zeus on 03.22.13 at 11:57 am

#84 Richard and Zeus,
The gold-plated pension you are paying me allows me the leisure to pursue personal interests, such as slagging ideological shills like you. Needless to say, I propose to draw it as long as possible, and may even let you know when I hit the million dollar mark to enjoy your implosion.
——————————————————
And govt workers wonder why they are hated and why the underground economy is so big.

#140 Buy? Curious? on 03.22.13 at 12:12 pm

@121, how’s that not ethical?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPo2RMHgSKQ

#141 TEMPLE on 03.22.13 at 12:15 pm

#21 Dr. WAYNE on 03.21.13 at 9:22 pm

By the way … ‘data’ is plural … so the sentence should be:

“You should know that after ‘these’ data ‘were’ published … “

It is OK to use “data” as a singular or plural form in non-scientific writing. The more formal datum/data should be adhered to for formal scientific writing. Garth’s usage of “data” is correct for this format.

Don’t call me an a$$hole, please!

TEMPLE

#142 squidly77 on 03.22.13 at 12:23 pm

From the brokers post @ 137 – Not a bad blog.

The wealthy man and the monkeys

Once upon a time in a village, a man appeared and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10 each.

The villagers, seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them. The man bought thousands at $10 and as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their effort.

He further announced that he would now buy at $20. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again.Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms.

The offer increased to $25 each and the supply of monkeys became so little that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone catch it! The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at $50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on behalf of him.

In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers; “Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at $35 and when the man returns from the city, you can sell them to him for $50 each.” The villagers rounded up with all their savings and bought all the monkeys.

Then they never saw the man nor his assistant, only monkeys everywhere!

#143 carpicker on 03.22.13 at 12:38 pm

2.89% 5 years Manulife, 0% down 84 months finance offered by auto industry. Im training my cat to cover the poop with pee.

#144 Silent People on 03.22.13 at 12:39 pm

Garth,
I noticed you usually don’t reply when someone asks you to use your crystal ball or experience to predict the future. Bravo, your silence tells them to figure out their own future and I like that! Keep up the good work and know their are lots of us out there that put your ideas to good use….

#145 Marshall on 03.22.13 at 12:39 pm

#118 Smoking Man

Indeed, you should pay Herb the utmost respect. Not simply for the fact that he is older than you, but that he is much more intelligent as well.

#146 Men Who Stare At Sheeple on 03.22.13 at 12:41 pm

#87 The Patient

In regards to banks reserve requirements. The global ponzi scheme explained http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-wall-street-ponzi-scheme-called-fractional-reserve-banking/11600

“Fractional-reserve banking is the current form of banking in all countries worldwide.”-http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_reserve_banking

“Fractional Reserve Banking” is the international bankers global pyramid scam being operated throughout most of the world. This system was created to benefit and empower the banking cartel at the expense of the people and their nations. Is it any wonder that countries around the world are being choked both financially and economically!

It’s the Wizard of Oz! A magic trick folks! The creation of money/credit out of thin air! A system of endless expansion of the money/credit supply with ever expanding debt load to the people and their countries.

The bankers are in the drivers seat while the taxpayers get thrown under a bus and are left holding a bag full of the banks bad debts and high risk IOU’s (mortgages, loans, etc.). TO BIG TO FAIL BABY!

The current global banking system was created to consolidate all power into their hands. Any nation not on board such as Iran, Syria, North Korea, etc. must submit or be bombed into the Stone Age!

Just remember, it’s only a conspiracy theory! wink!wink!

#147 Alyce in Wonderland on 03.22.13 at 12:41 pm

It also lays the groundwork for a new set of risk-management rules to govern the country’s biggest banks that will reduce Ottawa’s exposure in the event that one of them failed.
—————————————–
6 future steps expected with degree of variation allowed:

1. Refusal to honor the CDIC, effectively putting bondholders in advantage of creditors/savers, complete game changer. It seems deposits are not completely safe anymore, please elaborate on this as you stated that this would happen in Cyprus (they rejected it) but wont’ happen here (while it is in this year’s budget). The question is how withdrawals would be restricted, probably by mandatory frozen non-withdraw-able reserve option on each account (10%, 20 %)?

2. Passing part of the CHMC losses to the banks to be covered by the savers. Rest covered by money printing.

3. Use of CPP assets to cover budget shortfalls, future nationalization of private pension funds and RRSPs. Promised future government pensions for everyone contributed based on unclear formula (I will get your 200k RRSP invested in dividend paying stocks now, you will get 200 a month 30 years from now) that the inflation will eat (with ‘luxury’ adjustments based on understated CPI likely)

4. Wealth tax (probably fixed amount per person as not to trouble the rich).

5. Mandatory purchase of government long term junk bonds as part of the paycheck (10 %, 20 %,..), bond rates 2 %, inflation CPI 4 % official (15 + % real)

6. Further increase of the retirement age and reduction of benefits – health care, education,….

This in the richest in terms of natural resources per capita country in the world.

If 4 out of 6 of the above do not happen in the next 10-15 years I will eat my shoes publicly/on YouTube as Charley Chaplin in Gold Rush.
And to be clear: I would be very happy to eat my shoes.

Break out the salt. The only possible/probable is #6. — Garth

#148 Post Haste on 03.22.13 at 12:45 pm

I try not to think of bad thoughts on anyone (my religious upbringing I guess) – but my #1 a-hole neighbour who works in new home construction – I hope the market bottoms out so he can take his sorry azz and move –

IMHO, I think the whole move the 25yr to 40yr and back down to 25yr was a well ochestrated approach that was meant to move the economy safely away from the fallout throughout the western world. There is so much at stake.

As a homeowner (with a few short years left paying the mortgage beast) – I have always hoped for a retraction in prices. A slow moving, stable housing market is a far better situation for all homeowners then the rollercoaster ride, and so far it’s been a steady ride up – there obviously will be a day when it must return back down. I never looked at my home other then shelter – why people use their home as an ATM is beyond belief. I guess watching my family struggle in the early 80’s when interest rates were in the high teens – has been instilled in my soul.

Peace to all (but not my neighbour – he can burn in hell)

#149 The Prophet Elijah on 03.22.13 at 12:47 pm

#139 Richard and Zeus on 03.22.13 at 11:57 am
#84 Richard and Zeus,
The gold-plated pension you are paying me allows me the leisure to pursue personal interests, such as slagging ideological shills like you. Needless to say, I propose to draw it as long as possible, and may even let you know when I hit the million dollar mark to enjoy your implosion.
——————————————————
And govt workers wonder why they are hated and why the underground economy is so big.
———————————————————-
Laws of economics always have a way to balance things out. Years of greedy unions always demanding more pay and pension will feel the brunt of it when those “lucrative” DB’s will be unable to pay come retirement. The underfunded liabilities are staggering and that “promise” to pay will turn into a “maybe” if we have it. Austerity will eventually come, along with riots.

#150 Southern Ontarian on 03.22.13 at 12:48 pm

#118

Smoking Man is a real gentleman.

#151 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 03.22.13 at 12:58 pm

#98 Buy? Curious? on 03.22.13 at 3:59 am

Ever play Realtor Rodeo? It’s whereby you call a real estate agent up and try to keep them on the phone as long as you can. I actually take it a step further. I try to see if I can get them to drive me around the city. It’s a great way to learn about the city. But always be polite and give them buying signals to keep their hopes up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q16_LDI-tsU

======================================

Oh yes….I have noticed a lot of business. Mind you, these people are out on day passes are allowed to rent suits. Pain in the ass hauling people out of trunks though.

#152 Alyce in Wonderland on 03.22.13 at 1:03 pm

Break out the salt. The only possible/probable is #6. — Garth
—————————
I forgot: 7. Privatizing the Health Care (H’s dream)

You mean the budget would somehow manage and address the :
– Expected significant pension and health care expenses and shortfalls due to baby boomers retiring and their lack of savings
– CMHC losses (talking Armageddon here, expect 50B+/year)
– Slowdown in economy due to export of jobs and contraction in credit markets (indebted up to the eyeballs)
– Shale oil and gas impact

By only money printing while keeping inflation in check? Good lord, that is a great optimism!
I hope you are correct.

#153 Herbs Cypriot Banker on 03.22.13 at 1:09 pm

Dear Herb:

We wish to inform you that your gold plated pension and those of your colleagues in the “Saskatchewan Tidal Wave Watchers Local 666″ has been frozen indefinitely.

If you have any questions, refer them to Goldman Sachs

#154 Old Man on 03.22.13 at 1:18 pm

I closed out my contract last night via Toronto in Hong Kong in regards to the Cyprus mess, as there is no profit unless taken, so hooped me some spending money and can sleep well tonight. Now if luck would have it, Forex is in a state of shock because someone placed a put against the Euro for $900 million, but the spot market doesn’t reflect this all.

#155 Ian - Ottawa on 03.22.13 at 1:20 pm

http://www.theprovince.com/business/downtown+Vancouver+condos+empty+turning+areas+into+ghost/8135204/story.html

Hi Garth, I never would have guessed this many condos lay empty in Vancouver. But I also never thought about it much. Thank you again for your contribution. You point out the obvious that many are oblivious too !

#156 JL on 03.22.13 at 1:23 pm

This is not directly related to today’s post but the overall theme of the blog.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m quite certain that nominal GDP in Canada has grown from roughly 700 billion in 2000 to over 1.7 Trillion today, or approximate 2.5 times.

Obivously the vast majority of this is inflation.

However the point is if GDP has increased 2.5 times and most prices of goods, rents, food has done the same then why wouldn’t houses do the same? Why are we choosing one asset class (housing) to look at when all sorts of asset classes are up 2-3 times since 2000 because of inflation?

What am I missing here?

#157 Sam on 03.22.13 at 1:26 pm

There was a debate on this blog, more than a year ago, about Canadian banks’ reserve requirements. I couldn’t recall what the correct answer was, so I researched it and was shocked to discover that it is ZERO!

Garth, can you please confirm that is correct?
________
yeah, I think the fractional banking reserve requirement is zero

that’s not the same thing as loan loss provisions/requirements

#158 Timing is Everything on 03.22.13 at 1:40 pm

EU puts Cyprus on Ebay…auction runs until Monday.

http://tinyurl.com/bpmyd4r

#159 Van guy on 03.22.13 at 1:41 pm

http://www.yattermatters.com/2013/03/median-prices-of-vancouver-homes/#more-33562

Did prices jump 50% in 1 month? Avg and med show volatility, and hpi is not accurate. Sales details are what we need!!!

Zillow!!!!!!

#160 observer on 03.22.13 at 1:49 pm

Garth you seem to be very popular with other sites.

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/

It is unbelievable that CREA and CMHC are allowed to continue to decieve the public with mis-information. CMHC is a public body and should not be doing these kind of things.

Vancouver considers itself a world class city but its got the mentality of the VSE or the OCBB trading mentality. So Bush league!

BTW who else put out franken numbers like that.
1) Bernie Maddolf
2) Nortel
3) Bre-X

#161 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.22.13 at 1:50 pm

One tried-and-tested tactic is to publish misinformation about the true state of the market. By obscuring current data, manipulating it or misrepresenting it, the industry seeks to keep people confident about real estate.

Sometimes it takes education or gathering of irrefutable data to become cognizant of what misinformation can potentially lead to. Nazi leaders were masters at this and would lead an entire nation of sheep into six years of death and destruction against the world based on twisted misinformation. This is something that should be a mandatory lesson taught to all students. There is an interesting book on this exact issue called Bullspotting by author Loren Collins! Bullspotting applies the tools of critical thinking to identify the common features and trends among misinformation campaigns. Using illustrations drawn from conspiracy theorists and reality deniers of every stripe, author Loren Collins reveals how rumors are started as well as the types of rhetorical techniques and logical fallacies often found in misleading or outright false claims.

By the way conspiracy theorists please be advised this is not a book for you! Or is it not! Perhaps is really a book intended for conspiracy theorists to show them how to improve their misinformation skills, yes it is. So there you go alien probers, wacko World Trade Center insiders and anti Semitic holocaust deniers.

#162 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 03.22.13 at 1:59 pm

Red, White and Blue Storm Rising

http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/ifiwere2.html

QUOTE:

It is no secret that the United States is in and has been in serious financial trouble for decades. The total governmental debt of the United States is estimated at $27 trillion (with a “T”). The interest alone on the federal portion of the National Debt now exceeds the entire personal income tax collected from every tax payer in the nation.

And, since the full interest payments are not being made, let alone the principle, the debt continues to skyrocket. Claims of an election year budget surplus during the Clinton administration, which ignored the debt entirely, were little more than a bookkeeping trick in which the government spent Social Security payments as if they were general funds, along with now-failed predictions of ever increasing economic growth.

The United States government is so deeply in debt that it has long ago run out of sufficient gold with which to collateralize the debt. Starting during the Nixon administration, public lands were declared off limits to the general population and set aside as collateral on the loans held by foreign interests. In order to conceal from the public just how dire the situation truly was, this land collateralization process was concealed behind a cover of “environmentalism”.

The E.P.A. was created at the very start of the land collateralization process, and has since been joined by various other programs with names such as “Heritage Rivers”, “Wet lands”, “Biosphere Reserve”, etc. By using a large number of such fronts, with each only grabbing a “small” amount of land, the United States government has tried to conceal the true scale of the land collateralization process from the public.

etc etc.

================================

This is why a one handed magician usually fails.

While one’s eye is on Real Estate, the other hand is working to reduce one’s options, thus funnelling people into the farm called hi – density . Again….think of oneself as being farmed.

The whole GLOBAL shell game is to build up debt with fiat currency, and when the SHTF, the Public REAL assets are confiscated.

#163 Humpty Dumpty on 03.22.13 at 2:07 pm

Forget Cyprus, Nobody Is Stealing from Depositors More than Bernanke

Rickards says zero interest rates are just one way the Fed is fleecing depositors. Others include increasing inflation, which Bernanke is trying to do, and taxing deposits like Cyprus is pushing for. “Bernanke is stealing more money from depositors than Cyprus is… looting everyday Americans—teachers, firemen and retirees,” says Rickards.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/forget-cyprus-noboby-stealing-depositors-more-bernanke-170851783.html

#164 Langley Resident on 03.22.13 at 2:12 pm

I don’t know about the rest of the country but here in langley the developers are still going nuts. There is a lot of infrastructure being done on vacant land. Sewer, water, power etc. It strikes me that these are business people with a relationship with a bank. If the numbers are so bad here in the lower mainland why are the developers continuing to develop all this land for new builds. The banks surely know the numbers. Do they know something we don’t?

#165 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 03.22.13 at 2:13 pm

Cyprus Haircuts may be 40 %

EU Weighs 40% Haircut On Uninsured Cypriot Deposits In Bad-Bank Plan

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-21/eu-weighs-40-haircut-uninsured-cypriot-deposits-bad-bank-plan

More details are appearing on the latest and greatest plan in the shambles to solve Cyprus’ (and Europe’s unsolvable) problem. It appears the European Group is implicitly declaring economic war on the ‘wealthy’ depositors (we noted here non-domestic depositors dominated recent inflows) as these headlines hit:

*EURO AREA SAID TO WEIGH CLOSING CYPRUS POPULAR, BANK OF CYPRUS
*EURO AREA SAID TO WEIGH GOOD BANK, BAD BANK FOR CYPRUS BANKS
*UNINSURED DEPOSITS COULD GO TO CYPRUS BAD BANK, FACE 40% LOSS

We assume followed rapidly by some eurozone law-breaking capital controls to stop the remaining 60% flooding out instantaneously…

====================================

So, the latest is that if Cyprus doesn’t comply with external pressures…this may unravel all those toxic derivatives…..kaboom

#166 Humpty Dumpty on 03.22.13 at 2:25 pm

#128 jess on 03.22.13 at 11:02 am

scan this Watson…

Over the longer term, perhaps in 20 years or more, we could even be talking about something called the “technological singularity,” a point when human history ends, to be replaced by whatever happens in a world run by computers or other devices whose intelligence exceeds our own

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Bryan+next+thing+artificial+intelligence/8038204/story.html

#167 Trevor uk on 03.22.13 at 2:26 pm

Need to build on this momentum of truth…you should contact media and get together at Vancouver Art Gallery! Hey I might even move to Canada in a few years time if it get cheaper. How long do people think it will take to dip before it would be worth selling up in the UK and buying in Richmond or ’twasseen? 2,3,5 years?

#168 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 03.22.13 at 2:32 pm

$900 Million Says Euro Crashes In 2 Weeks: PUT Trade Rocks London Options Market!
by Before It’s News

Someone has placed a GIGANTIC $900 million EURO PUT trade on the Euro to crash vs. the dollar within 2 weeks. Is this a ‘smart bet’ by someone who has seen the writing on the wall with the situation in Cyprus or does someone have inside knowledge that something big is about to happen?

Beware! We have seen this before as shared in the videos below; in fact, it happened prior to September 11th, 2001, and we ALL saw what happened thereafter. This story is brought to us by Derivatives Intelligence.: (top of post)

https://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2013/03/22/e900-million-bet-says-euro-crashes-in-2-weeks-put-trade-rocks-london-options-market/

#169 Humpty Dumpty on 03.22.13 at 2:43 pm

#57 Canadian Watchdog

I showed them this chart of new wallet openings.

http://www.runtogold.com/2013/03/cyprus-fincen-and-a-bitcoin-price-meltup-during-the-nacha-conference/?awt_l=530ZF&awt_m=I.IhgqhGmbfdxm

#170 John Prine on 03.22.13 at 2:50 pm

——————————————————
And govt workers wonder why they are hated and why the underground economy is so big.
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I don’t know anybody that hates government workers, politicians maybe, I also know some nice, hardworking realtors, there are bad people in all occupations it’s hard to understand how some on this blog are so fixated on trying to blame so many for their inability to get ahead financially….Sad.

#171 NovaWatch on 03.22.13 at 2:57 pm

Halifax area sales way down year over year:

http://www.viewpoint.ca/blog/article/38

#172 Humpty Dumpty on 03.22.13 at 3:02 pm

Amerikan Ethics….

The Patriot Act permits FBI agents to write their own search warrants and gives those warrants the patriotic and harmless-sounding name of national security letters (NSLs). This authorization is in direct violation of the Fourth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which says that the people shall be secure in their persons, houses, papers and effects from unreasonable searches and seizures, and that their security can only be violated by a search warrant issued by a neutral judge and based upon probable cause of crime.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/mar/21/when-the-government-demands-silence/

#173 Old Man on 03.22.13 at 3:14 pm

Mr. Turner is an expert with pics to present, as has an educational background in the arts with a high level of intelligence, and am paying attention, as believe all his pics hold a hidden meaning. I look at this dog pic and at first thought it belonged to F because of a vote in parliament, but nevertheless have seen this dog on Church Street walking around with someone. :)

#174 jess on 03.22.13 at 3:58 pm

ethics not here
global witness
http://www.globalwitness.org/insideshadowstate/index.html

The film reveals for the first time the instruments used by the ruling Taib family and its lawyers to skirt Malaysia’s laws and taxes. It shows how they cream off huge profits at the expense of indigenous people, and hide their dirty money in Singapore.

#175 TS on 03.22.13 at 4:18 pm

Anything can be up and down, is it really a big deal? it is not end of the world, things are going on.

#176 Burnt Norton on 03.22.13 at 4:31 pm

98 Buy? Curious? on 03.22.13 at 3:59 am

Dude, it was a joke.

#177 The Prophet Elijah on 03.22.13 at 4:35 pm

#164 Langley Resident on 03.22.13 at 2:12 pm
I don’t know about the rest of the country but here in langley the developers are still going nuts. There is a lot of infrastructure being done on vacant land. Sewer, water, power etc. It strikes me that these are business people with a relationship with a bank. If the numbers are so bad here in the lower mainland why are the developers continuing to develop all this land for new builds. The banks surely know the numbers. Do they know something we don’t?
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This is my question too, I’ve seen and heard of this phenomenon, houses keep going up but no one is touching them as for sale signs sit for months on end.
California circa 2006??

#178 jess on 03.22.13 at 4:38 pm

166 Humpty Dumpty

watch the video by global witness and see how nominee STRAW directors are used to go around the 51% ownership …this is appalling!

#179 Smoking Man on 03.22.13 at 4:53 pm

#145 Marshall on 03.22.13 at 12:39 pm#118 Smoking Man
Indeed, you should pay Herb the utmost respect. Not simply for the fact that he is older than you, but that he is much more intelligent as well.
…………………

He should be, been around a bit longer, but then he is getting close to dementia years, they slip fast, so I will get what I can from the old bull.

#180 Mr. Plow on 03.22.13 at 5:31 pm

Had to pop in and say this is probably the best screen name I have ever seen!

#25 City that smells like it sounds

Well played.

#181 Humpty Dumpty on 03.22.13 at 5:39 pm

177 The Prophet Elijah on 03.22.13 at 4:35 pm

BC bud is much more lucrative in rual areas surrounded by HA….

At the start of 2012, there were 4,169 Health Canada-approved grow-ops in the province. By the end of 2012, the number had jumped to 11,601. B.C. accounts for over half of the growing licences issued in Canada.

http://www.globaltvbc.com/if+its+licensed+theres+nothing+we+can+do+neighbours+feel+powerless+over+legal+grow-ops/6442818967/story.html

#182 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 03.22.13 at 5:40 pm

Hey…latest on Cyprus…

Cyprus banks passed Stress Tests just a few weeks ago !

Anyway, the latest is that the Banksteers and their ilk have decided that depositors are investors…and that if a bank becomes compromised, ALL depositors share in the risk and thus liable.

#183 Smoking Man on 03.22.13 at 5:42 pm

I’m an idiot, trading on the phone, don’t realize I got on the wrong train, express to Clarkson. I get distracted as we zoom by long branch I for get to close out my sell on GBP/USA . before market closes. Bigest unknown weekend in forex trading.

I could wake up Monday morning doubling up or having to re fund my account, I have forest gumped my whole life, why should this weekend be any different…

#184 Mr. Plow on 03.22.13 at 5:42 pm

Ok a close 2nd place too….

#98 Buy? Curious?

#185 dv8 on 03.22.13 at 5:50 pm

its all transitory
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhhaTxILfk0

#186 Canadian Watchdog on 03.22.13 at 6:10 pm

#159 Van guy

Sales details are what we need!!!

What we need is for people to start inquiring with the Competition Bureau and attorney generals, like in the US. Nothing will change without action being taken. The boards don't care.

#169 Humpty Dumpty

It's only a matter of time before the government tries to shut down Bitcoin. Whether they can or not is another story.

#187 maxx on 03.22.13 at 6:16 pm

#127 Axxman on 03.22.13 at 11:01 am

Yet another excellent post. Bravo, you’re batting a thousand.

#188 maxx on 03.22.13 at 6:19 pm

#134 rosie “moving backwards”

Cute… has the shape of a “poppy”!

#189 blinded on 03.22.13 at 6:25 pm

After Cyprus,now this:

Trioka wants to hike bailin demands.

In an article on Handelsblatt the chief economist of Commerzbank says: Italy should bring a unique wealth tax.

New Zealand is looking at a deposit tax.

Merkel is furious.

So Bernanke now says he is dispensable.

#190 Pr on 03.22.13 at 6:31 pm

…Many people will lose their work. Some deserving.

Absolutely! And the ones who are lobbying to bring back longer mortgage, are seriously out of their mind.

#191 Old Man on 03.22.13 at 6:34 pm

# 183 Smoking Man – you need to come clean as the reason you got on the wrong train was some young woman gave you a wink and a smile, so do not tell us all these tales about getting on the wrong train and ending up in Clarkson.

#192 The Patient on 03.22.13 at 6:48 pm

#146 Men Who Stare At Sheeple

Yes, yes, but am I right that the reserve requirements for Canadian banks is $0.00?

Our gracious host seems to be ducking this one, but my research (FWIW) indicates that it is indeed ZERO, which is somewhat troubling…

#193 Westernman on 03.22.13 at 6:51 pm

Herb @ # 110,
Like I’ve been saying all along – who else would defend massive Socialist, High Tax Nanny State wealth redistributing Marxists but someone who is leaching off it ( “it” meaning you – the private sector worker who is pulling this cart of rotten apples )
I knew it was that or sponging off your wife’s parents… well, maybe you do that as well…

#194 Humpty Dumpty on 03.22.13 at 7:11 pm

#165 Dr. Hoof – Hearted on 03.22.13 at 2:13 pm

Here’s a bomb ready to go off….

http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/81287/stock-bond-market-crash-collapse-risk

Chris Martenson has lost it. — Garth

#195 TurnerNation on 03.22.13 at 7:20 pm

BPOE? Squamish’s town council is proposing a 12% property tax hike.

#196 Whitey on 03.22.13 at 8:47 pm

Garth, I noticed you replied to the comment regarding Montreal’s Real Estate. Any idea where St. John’s, NL stands? I never see it mentioned anywhere, but have a couple friends who are leveraged way too much in real estate back home on the Rock.

#197 Richard and Zeus on 03.22.13 at 11:21 pm

By the way conspiracy theorists please be advised this is not a book for you! Or is it not! Perhaps is really a book intended for conspiracy theorists to show them how to improve their misinformation skills, yes it is. So there you go alien probers, wacko World Trade Center insiders and anti Semitic holocaust deniers.
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Talk about working for both sides….

#198 Skeptical on 03.23.13 at 2:29 am

Garth, I believe in your message but some of the things you say cause you to lose credibility. You pick apart the stories that real estate agents tell but then you post some misleading figures about how prices in Richmond have dropped 50% in the last year. Anyone with half a brain will know that is not the case. I know you will respond and say you did not say prices in all of Richmond dropped by 50% and that is was the median blah blah blah. The key word is misleading. Sometimes you’re no better than those real estate agents that calculate the home price index. You should also stop giving people false hopes about how easy it is to get 7% return on their investments.

The Richmond stats were based on recent sales activity. No misleading there. As for a 7% return, the S&P did 13% last year and a balanced portfolio returned more than 8% over the last three. Don’t blame me if your investment advisor is your mom. — Garth

#199 JB on 03.23.13 at 7:38 am

There is one thing everyone can (and should) do: INVESTIGATE. We have to keep in mind everything that surrounds us is based on game theory, and it is not necessarily a scam, its just a game based on how much information you are able to gather and use in order to achieve a better result. Realtors are people like us, and not a single one would play it 100 % straight with you. I a defend buying on overpriced market, but if you are so horny to invest your money, you can always find a better deal. There will be people convincing you that housing market is currently “balancing” and everything seems fine. But don´t trust them. Just find information, facts, and consult different people from the business.

Garth has already stated it here that certain areas would never drop that much, because they offer advantages over the other places, and provide a good environment, that they would always stay higher. So buying there while you still hold enough equity is not as bad as it seems.

#200 Herb on 03.23.13 at 9:45 am

#193 Westernmoron,

I knew you’d love it.

#201 Herb on 03.23.13 at 9:50 am

#179 SM,

thanks for the compliment. And don’t pull your punches to “show respect”. I can still hold my own.

#202 Herb on 03.23.13 at 9:59 am

#149 The Prophet Elijah,

your crows neglected to feed you one bit of information: no unions in the former Armed Services and later Canadian Forces. We got what governments thought we were worth and could provide for in Defence budgets.

#203 Dr. Cornwallis on 03.23.13 at 12:58 pm

Great, now the HAMcopters are hovering over Saskatoon.

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/business/Chinese+buyers+enticed+Saskatoon+real+estate/8142124/story.html