Spring

spring

Once upon a time, last December, I told you the tale of a sad little bung in North Toronto with crappy shingles and two dead cars outside. It’s nestled between two faux chateau baronial anorexic skinny pseudo-stone McMansions which sell for a million and a half. The little bung yearned to be tall and fatuous, too.

One day its owners listed it for $809,000, and suddenly the street filled with Ford 150s and cube vans. Contractors poured over the lot, submitted bids and made the bung feel special when it quickly sold for $843,000. Nobody had the heart to tell it the money was for thirty feet of dirt, and the bung would soon be landfill.

Two weeks ago a realtor (you can spot them by the BMW and the clipboard) and the guy who bought the place stood on the sidewalk staring at it. “Are you the owner,” my friend asked as her dog inhaled his leg. He said yes. But it hasn’t closed yet. “What are you going to do with it?” And he said he didn’t know, which was an odd thing for a guy who was about to drop $843,000 for a junker house.

Yesterday I heard there were more realtors around. Sure enough, the bung is for sale again. Sort of. Actually the agreement of purchase and sale signed three months ago is for sale – for $799,900. Says the new listing: “Drawing For New 2 Storey W/B/I Garage 4 Large B.R.2nd Fl. Laundry ,5 Wash Rms. Ready To Be Submitted To Committee Of Adj.”

Why would someone win a bidding war only to sell before closing at a loss? Maybe the owner decided it’s all too much work, pricing the bung ‘below market’ to engender another bidding war. It might be a clever strategy to get out unscorched, maybe even make a few bucks. Or maybe he’s just scared.

It wouldn’t surprise me. After all, tying up seven figures in debt and equity to build a spec house that won’t be approved and erected for at least a year might not be the safest way to make money, given the gathering storm. The denial of CMHC mortgage insurance to listings above $1 million has already tanked Vancouver and knocked 15% off last Spring’s prices in most hoods in 416. And now the news just grows more grim.

For example, the second major ratings agency in as many weeks is saying flat-out Canadian real estate prices are delusional, divorced from economic fundamentals. Last week Fitch concluded houses are over-valued by 20% as it studied how to rate mortgage-backed securities. And now Moody’s has taken all the hormonal fun out of spring.

“As with Australia, Spain and the U.K., we expect house prices in Canada to suffer the most due to the misalignment of current house prices with historic fundamentals,” it says. And what does that mean? Simply if there were a “severe economic shock” a la California or Nevada in 2006, real estate here could plop by 44%.  The reason’s simple. Houses here are not worth what people have been paying for them, and price gains bear no relation to income growth.

But the good news? We’re not as screwed as Spain. Prices there could plunge 52%. And they molest bulls.

But maybe the contractor dude with the sad bung only listened to the local news today. You know, the story about “housing’s lost decade” that’s about to start any day now, according to the TD bank. Thanks to a spongy economy and far too many wrinklies, the bank figures house prices in Canada will grow at only the rate of inflation (2%) over the course of the next ten years.

Now that might not sound like a disaster on the surface, but imagine you bought a condo for $500,000 with 5% down and are 100% sure of renewing your mortgage in five years at double the rate. Yes, screwed. No capital appreciation on a unit you could have rented for half the cost while seriously growing your money in a balanced portfolio.

Or worse, hit the calculator, like one of our blog dogs did:

I read the article in the Vancouver Sun, and saw this: ‘TD expects prices to fall in the next two or three years, rising to average annual increases of 3.5 per cent after 2015 for an average annual gain of two per cent overall in the upcoming decade’

So I decided to run the numbers: what kind of a drop would prices have to see between 2013 and 2015, such that 3.5% increases from 2015 to 2023 net out to a gain of 2.0%? Starting with Vancouver’s proverbial Average Million Dollar house, I calculated that the property price would have to drop 22.5% by 2015, for the prediction to be accurate, best case scenario.  If the purported average 3.5% per year gains are loaded toward the end of the decade, (as we have seen in the recent large gains in prices with the US recovery) that first big drop gets bigger. A lot bigger.

Well, perhaps the bung guy heard about Canada’s mortgage brokers, furiously lobbying F to rescue real estate in his coming budget. Broker boss Jim Murphy is pleading with Ottawa to reinstate the 30-year mortgage and to goose the tax break handed out to first-time buyers, now that sales have started to disintegrate.

As you know, February’s drop was 29% in Vancouver, 28% in Montreal and 15% in Toronto – the three biggest markets in the nation. And March numbers will probably be worse, since this month last year was the apex of hormonal silliness.

But relax. It ain’t Spain. A little bungalow can still dream.

203 comments ↓

#1 claudius emperor on 03.11.13 at 9:06 pm

can’t resist

#2 YES on 03.11.13 at 9:06 pm

FIRST baby

#3 YES on 03.11.13 at 9:07 pm

Garth your right on point with this one… AND i agree 100% shout to F and all the gov for messing up the system..

LIMY STRATFORD

#4 Halifax Observer on 03.11.13 at 9:13 pm

There are certainly troubled times ahead for the Halifax economy in general and the real estate market in particular. I found a very interesting series of videos by a Halifax area realtor who provides some information on the local market. Here is his take on the weak numbers for February:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqhVLyosRmw

I realize that the precipitous drops could definitely be skewed by the very factors he mentions but it still must hurt considering that just a few weeks ago he was claiming that the market and economy in Halifax are “booming.” This is a classic realtor clip:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLZKZuDvF1E&feature=endscreen&NR=1

You heard it here first folks, it’s different in Halifax….. “look, a tower crane. Things are booming!”
In other news, this column from the Chronicle Herald paints a very different picture:

http://thechronicleherald.ca/business/924436-brighton-so-does-the-government-know-something-we-don-t
A few points from the article:

“Provincial unemployment is 13 per cent higher than in February 2012. Unemployment has surged 19 per cent among men aged 25 and older and nine per cent among women in the same age group.

The labour force is down slightly for the same period, while the unemployment rate is up one percentage point.

Relative to a year ago, 5,400 more people tried and failed to find work last month.

There were 3,000 fewer people holding down full-time jobs and 3,000 fewer people were engaged in part-time work.”

Every day there is more disheartening news for this city and this region. I am with DND and we are facing budget cuts that could hit the Navy by up to 20%. Throw that on top of the rest of the bad news and I have a hard time believing that business will be booming in this region. The developers are overbuilding here and, in my opinion, Halifax real estate will be hit as hard as any other city. The people speak of the National Shipbuilding contract promised to local industry like it is some sort of a Messiah. “Don’t worry, the shipbuilding will save us all.” It is amazing to me how financially and emotionally invested people are in this. Sadly, even that will likely end up being a shell of what was originally envisioned.

#5 claudius emperor on 03.11.13 at 9:14 pm

Spain with 52 % down is a buy. Great weather, Europe, can retire nicely when the time comes.

TD guy is on crack. The so called chief economist is deadly wrong. Prices depend on income, interest rate, jobless rate, rental availability and rates.
And on the willingness of the gov. to insure everyone with a pulse.

If the guy with the hormons (F, hope he has hemoroids as well) does not retire soon and keeps running his CMHC schema we might soon all be bankrupt.

#6 Shrit4brawns on 03.11.13 at 9:16 pm

SM,

I greatly enjoyed your lengthy post of a few days back. I printed it out and will read it again. And again. In time.

I hope all is well with you and yours.

416/GTA – your going to lose on your forecast.

Oh well, there will be others…

Best,

S4B

#7 DJB on 03.11.13 at 9:17 pm

March 11th and we just broke a total inventory of 16,000 here in the lower mainland. 2012 April’s inventory just arrived 3 weeks early in 2013.

#8 guelphstudent on 03.11.13 at 9:20 pm

TD also predicts 7% five year fixed mortgage rate in the long term. The report even mentioned that current prices are out of sync with fundamentals such as price to income and price to rent ratios. But the killer was when they said that there is no housing bubble. So why even mention that than if you don’t believe it exists ?

#9 45north on 03.11.13 at 9:24 pm

I read the article in the Vancouver Sun, and saw this: ‘TD expects prices to fall in the next two or three years, rising to average annual increases of 3.5 per cent after 2015 for an average annual gain of two per cent overall in the upcoming decade’

which is why I don’t work for TD, here’s what I would have written:

in the next two years, housing is going to take a total shit-kicking. After which I really don’t know – I mean in two years Jesus Christ may visibly and corporately manifest himself but supposing that doesn’t happen then I could imagine that housing prices would go up again and in 10 years (by which time I sincerely hope that I am not working for TD) yeah prices will be increasing 3.5%. I mean the prices in 2023 will be 3.5% higher than in 2022.

#10 Dean Mason on 03.11.13 at 9:27 pm

Capital Economics Madani forecast that an average 25% drop in Canadian housing about a couple of years ago if I remember properly. Toronto,Vancouver,Calgary would drop more than this. Time will only tell but I think there will be at least 5 years of a slump and some flat prices over the next 3-5 years.

There are many other places to be but not physical real estate. Renting and investing the difference is the better way to go. Even a 5% rate or return is very achievable over the next 5-10 years.

#11 Rob Smith on 03.11.13 at 9:30 pm

I sent F an email today after reading about the lobbying, everyone should be sending him an email to let him know that more market manipulation is not the way to go.

#12 takla1 on 03.11.13 at 9:32 pm

Sadly this correction will play-out and any guess as to how hard a landing we will have is pure speculation.After 25 yrs of “home ownership”{bank ownership in reality} my wife and I got out last summer and feel we are one of the lucky one’s.sure we watched our eqitty evapourate but at least we accomplished raiseing 4 kids and walked without oweing anything…..sad reality

#13 Tim on 03.11.13 at 9:37 pm

Do you think property in the south of France will ever come down to a reasonable level, given the state of their economy?

#14 Chickenlittle on 03.11.13 at 9:42 pm

Where is Dr Wayne?

As for the poster yesterday who was talking about open houses in Hamilton drawing a crowd from Oakville, I call BS on that one for sure! NO ONE from Oakville would move to Hamilton unless they lost their Robert Graham shirts and couldn’t afford anything else.
I am from Hamilton and believe me, selling Hamilton to outsiders requires several Amazons, a heck of a lot of cash, and maybe a few more incentives, like free wings every Friday night for the next 5 years.
So unless Hamilton is gentrifying (LOL) I would bet my sister’s dog that that post was all crap.

#15 HDJ on 03.11.13 at 9:43 pm

Here’s the bottom line. Visitors to this blog who took its warnings to heart and exited the housing market a few years ago did the wrong thing. As many have pointed out, prices significantly increased during the last decade, and any drop in property value during the current phase of adjustment will in no way come close to wiping out those earlier profits. It was a tough call to make, but opting to bail out (or stay out) of real estate was a misguided and unfortunate move – many tens of thousands down the drain. End of story.

#16 blok existentialist on 03.11.13 at 9:47 pm

No, no, no. The U.S. has GRACELAND. WE have Rortland.

#17 Andrewski on 03.11.13 at 9:50 pm

Hmmm, there was a time when the saying was, ‘buy term (instead of whole life) & invest the difference, (which of course few to no people did!).

Now the mantra is, rent (instead of own) & invest the difference. Actions speak louder than words.

#18 claudius emperor on 03.11.13 at 9:52 pm

#11 Rob Smith
I sent F an email today after reading about the lobbying, everyone should be sending him an email to let him know that more market manipulation is not the way to go.
———————————–
Did you tell him that if wants to play Santa Claus to do it with his own money?

#19 Wise guy on 03.11.13 at 9:56 pm

All I know is my friends neighbour listed their Bloor West Village home two weeks back for $869,000. The owner a lawyer bragged to her neighbours that there were going to be over 40 different bidders.

Well, the day came and passed, but for whatever reason, they re-listed the house for $899,000. They had another open house, but apparently not too many bites.

We shall see what happens in this much saught after area in Toronto.

#20 Mr. Monday Night on 03.11.13 at 9:58 pm

I’m currently working abroad with a group of expats who will soon be returning to Canada. I have cautioned them to at least be aware of the risks involved with purchasing a house during this incredibly volatile period. The ever-popular answer continues to be ‘why would I throw my money away renting?’ or ‘I’ll have enough equity built up so it won’t be so bad.’

Well, I tried. Guess there’s still plenty of Greater Fools out there, economics be damned. Be back in a few years to (hopefully) affordable housing. Otherwise, I guess I’ll just be another one of those ‘loser renters’ growing my nest egg.

#21 Chester on 03.11.13 at 10:00 pm

When the music stops they won’t all get a chair. Its time to panic.

#22 Toon Town Boomer on 03.11.13 at 10:02 pm

http://rabble.ca/columnists/2013/03/canadas-reckless-banks-need-reining

No not “OUR” banks

#23 Smoking Man on 03.11.13 at 10:06 pm

#6 Shrit4brawns on 03.11.13 at 9:16 pm

Glad you liked it, more to come, good news on home front to :) guess god took my warning seriously…. Still not totally out of the woods.. Old age next beast to slay…..

As far as 416 not wrong, I’m detached emotionally from the market, I study the track6ers daily…. Stubborn lot that can’t be a defined in column in a Fitch spreadsheet. TD shpeal was just that. Hot air.

Population growth in Gta with track6 mentality. Go long on lawn mower sales :)

#24 KG on 03.11.13 at 10:07 pm

One more of the same: MLS®: C2544589

#25 Ret on 03.11.13 at 10:19 pm

Of course, my offer will be subject to Committee of Adjustment approval to basically build whatever I want.

Don’t be surprised if the adjacent neighbours show up to this meeting to argue window sizes/placements, sight lines, shadow lines on solar panels, maximum height, architectural elements etc.

#26 Smoking Man on 03.11.13 at 10:22 pm

#14 Chickenlittle..

Lol totally agree with your logic…. You been studying the 6ets ha…

#27 Steve on 03.11.13 at 10:26 pm

Job losses coming up will kill this Ponzi. Prices will be cheaper but nobody will be able to afford them as they won’t have the income

#28 Tom Vu on 03.11.13 at 10:27 pm

It is duly noted that many posters have had their posts previously drafted and await the latest GF BLOG..even if crap pants.

These people are Firrsszzztttt wannabees.

I wish to avoid this primordial ooze neanderthal subclass, and now dock my boat in Saskatchewan, where the summer time/ice free season lasts at least 2 days.

PS the Maple Leafs will suck you 416 morons in then be golfing by end of April..bwhahahahaha

#29 Freedom First on 03.11.13 at 10:30 pm

I think that if you are a healthy person/couple, and under financial pressure for whatever reason, no matter what your age, you do not know what you are doing.
However, if you were to read all of the information Garth has written over the years on his generously free blog, you would find all of your mistakes/errors in judgement that you have made, plus any of the mistakes you may have missed. Please forgive me if I come across as too harsh for letting you know that you are either: close-minded, ignorant, lazy, entitled, drowning in self pity or criticism or blame, arrogant, gullible, and frustrating to be in the presence of, but I am not near as tactful or kindhearted as Garth.

#30 Realistic realtor GTA on 03.11.13 at 10:36 pm

There were 12 offers on that little detached in north Toronto asking $899k. Sold for somewhere over $1m. I’m sure we will know tomorrow the final price. I don’t get it anymore. Why are people paying these prices.

#31 Jaguar on 03.11.13 at 10:37 pm

Seems like everyday a new economist (usually employed by the banking industry) gets trotted out to do media to try to calm fears about a housing correction. They all stop short of using the word ‘correction’, preferring instead to use phrases like ‘moderation in pricing, flat market, etc’.
Given the uncertain economic situation here in Canada and across the pond it makes me a little suspicious. The Feds, the Bankers, the Real Estate Cartel, and even the media. They’re all in on the conspiracy. It’s like some of pandemic they need to contain. A pandemic of panic. I for one am not drinking the koolaid….

#32 Alberta Ed on 03.11.13 at 10:38 pm

Methinks the TD guy is full of ka-ka. Tooling down the so-called ‘Sunshine Coast’ today for a look-see, we were almost blinded by the fluorescent FOR SALE signs along the highway from Powell River down to Gibson’s… and the sun wasn’t even shining.

#33 Smoking Man on 03.11.13 at 10:41 pm

#8 guelphstudent on 03.11.13 at 9:20 pm

Drop out while you still have your mind, mind you, you used the word fundamental, not sure if you can be saved at this point.

I’d to far up matrix river, no coming back, stay in school, obey and hopefully school has done such a great job on you, you won’t know your screwed, ignorance = bliss

#34 m g on 03.11.13 at 10:41 pm

Where will all the immigrants live in Toronto?they aren’t building homes here just boxes in the sky. buy land yiung man

#35 non smoking man on 03.11.13 at 10:49 pm

I think all of these banks and real estate companies are just snakeoil salesmen.

#36 Smoking Man on 03.11.13 at 10:56 pm

#34 non smoking man on 03.11.13 at 10:49 pm

I think all of these banks and real estate companies are just snakeoil salesmen.
…………….

Hate to break it to you, the world is run by snake oil sales men, and they make the most loot… The rest are their to serve them…. Get with the program, learn to sell………

#37 OnlyTheBankersLaugh on 03.11.13 at 10:57 pm

News from outer GTA … no one in town would believe these numbers. Think it would never go down due to escarpment limitations as realtors say.

The February 2013 STATISTICS are now in!

According to the REALTORS Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB), the residential market in Burlington saw a 2.8% decrease in average sales price compared to February 2012 and the average days on the market was 36, which is higher than last year’s 30. Actual overall residential sales were 16.3% lower this year than last year in Burlington.

#38 Smoking Man on 03.11.13 at 11:02 pm

#27 Steve on 03.11.13 at 10:26 pm

Bravo Steve you learned the word ponzi….. So smart, not…

Less of course you figure out how to own your own ponzi…

That won’t happen. You swallowed the cool aid the machine taught you.

Truth justice and the America way…… Lmao

Learn to hunt 9 to 5 Sundays are for refelection, everything else is a competition…… Play the game, or sit in the stands like a leaf fan..

#39 Dave on 03.11.13 at 11:05 pm

There you go again saying mortgage rates will be double in 5 years. I just don’t get it – you appear to be way off base with this point.

You correctly stated in a previous article that Canada is on the brink of deflation – this deflationary environment would indicate a lean towards lowering rates (although I suspect they will hold steady well into 2014). But then you state such a wild claim that you expect mortgage rates to actually double within 5 years. Given our current economic conditions – you are taking an incredible leap of faith.

I’m becoming frustrated with reading this site. You offer some excellent investment advice to your readers, but all to often I am finding that I have to sort through your articles and separate the facts from your off-base, wild predictions…

You really should allow me to proof read your articles before posting so that I can keep you inline.

Mortgages at 6% in five years? You’ll be lucky if they’re that low. — Garth

#40 Sam on 03.11.13 at 11:07 pm

I can’t find it again but I read an article a while back stating Spaniards can only discharge half of a mortgage in bankruptcy.

Surely Canada could be worse off than Spain.

#41 Smoking Man on 03.11.13 at 11:15 pm

I’m really happy today, two weeks of hell. Wondering if the doctors put her and me threw this shit just to make a buck…. If that’s the case I understand.. But next time other people please…. You don’t wana be on my shit list, just look what’s about to happen to the insurance industry…

#42 Saskatoon-Living on 03.11.13 at 11:15 pm

Awful housing starts in Saskatoon and Regina:

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/business/Housing+starts+slow+February/8072601/story.html

#43 Tom Vu on 03.11.13 at 11:19 pm

Smoking Man:

How you can type when both arms tied in straight jacket and with Hannibal Lecter goalie mask is truly amazing feat.

PS: You need agent for Las Vegas ?
Auditions for “Burt Wonderstone II” soon

#44 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.11.13 at 11:19 pm

@ #30 Realistic realtor GTA on 03.11.13 at 10:36 pm
There were 12 offers on that little detached in north Toronto asking $899k. Sold for somewhere over $1m. I’m sure we will know tomorrow the final price. I don’t get it anymore. Why are people paying these prices.
____________________________

I’m calling HAM on that one… someone with realtor.ca access will need to confirm, once the sale happens.

#45 Mr Buyer on 03.11.13 at 11:23 pm

#14 Chickenlittle on 03.11.13 at 9:42 pm
………………………………………………………………..
Lived in Hamilton a few times and visited even more. Nearly got my head caved in more than a few times. I will not go over the last near miss I mentioned before. I still like Hamilton though and it is still a great deal safer than a few US towns I almost got mugged and shot in.

#46 Uwinsome on 03.11.13 at 11:23 pm

One of the rarely discussed consequences of the huge inflation in Vancouver has been the separation of the extended family.

My own adult children have left their home city (Vancouver) partly because of better opportunities elsewhere, but mainly because of the rediculous cost of housing. The dream of raising a family in a single family home in Vancouver is an illusion. Their options are to commute hours a day or live in a box.

Well over half my friends are in the same boat. Their children have left Vancouver. They are raising their own families in other cities and other countries. My neighborhood looks nothing like it did even ten years ago. The neighbors don’t say hi to each other and the traditional cultural events in the community are gone.

I loved my city. It still beautiful (when the sun shines). But now, I find it kind of lonely and hollow.

#47 Quantitative Analyst on 03.11.13 at 11:23 pm

So I decided to run the numbers: what kind of a drop would prices have to see between 2013 and 2015, such that 3.5% increases from 2015 to 2023 net out to a gain of 2.0%? Starting with Vancouver’s proverbial Average Million Dollar house, I calculated that the property price would have to drop 22.5% by 2015, for the prediction to be accurate, best case scenario. If the purported average 3.5% per year gains are loaded toward the end of the decade, (as we have seen in the recent large gains in prices with the US recovery) that first big drop gets bigger. A lot bigger.

– This analysis is incorrect. If you assume a drop of 3.785% each year (2013, 2014, 2015), then 3.5% returns afterward until 2023, then you arrive at the equivalent price to 2% compounded increases each year.
That’s a 10.9% drop at 2015, not 22.5%.

#48 scotto on 03.11.13 at 11:25 pm

#14 Chickenlittle on 03.11.13 at 9:42 pm
As for the poster yesterday who was talking about open houses in Hamilton drawing a crowd from Oakville, I call BS on that one for sure!
My little section of Hamilton does quite well with the out of towners, but my taxes won’t stop flying out of control because of them. Must be the nice view on the one side.

#49 Mr Buyer on 03.11.13 at 11:26 pm

#36 Smoking Man on 03.11.13 at 10:56 pm
learn to sell…
……………………………………………………………
or learn to create
or learn to contribute
or learn to learn
or
never mind

#50 Mr Buyer on 03.11.13 at 11:28 pm

#33 Smoking Man on 03.11.13 at 10:41 pm
such a great job on you, you won’t know your screwed, ignorance = bliss
…………………………………………………………..
I missed that course was before or after molecular biology? Or was it…
never mind

#51 jan on 03.11.13 at 11:29 pm

You said….#11Rob Smith on 03.11.13 at 9:30 pm
I sent F an email today after reading about the lobbying, everyone should be sending him an email to let him know that more market manipulation is not the way to go.

Where do I email these boners at ????????

#52 James on 03.11.13 at 11:30 pm

#Realistic realtor GTA

It depends if the buyer is a small potato or not. Do they have deep pockets? Foreign buyers?

People with deep pockets are eager to move money out of their country (ie China, Middle East). They buy multiple properties to park their money. They don’t even care if it drops in values because they have so much money. And guess what happened when Spain offered a passport for any prospective buyers? I’ll let you think about it.

#53 Andrew on 03.11.13 at 11:31 pm

The reason that houses in neighbourhoods like North Toronto are expensive is that there are a very limited supply of houses in Toronto compared to the number of people who live here. There are 275010 households that live in single family houses in the City of Toronto (Statistics Canada, 2011 Census) containing 824100 people and about 3 people on average per house but the City of Toronto has a population of 2791140 (2012 estimate). If you add semi-detached housing you get a somewhat higher number, but it is still a small minority of Toronto’s population which live in low density housing. There are far too few single family houses in the city for everyone who lives here, and the majority of Toronto residents live in apartments. Of these single family houses, a large percentage are in low income neighbourhoods, and the “rich” neighbourhoods (near Yonge Street north of Bloor, southern Etobicoke, the Beaches, etc.) are only a small fraction of the housing stock.

#54 In the cold from Toronto on 03.11.13 at 11:31 pm

I was surprised at the big drop found out by your “blog dog” for the now to 2015 drop in price of RE: a 22% drop forcasterd (even implicitly) by a Canadian bank was waaaay out of line.

This would be news worthy, don’t you think? Imagine the headlines: “TD forecasts a drop of 22% in RE by end of 2015!”… Newsworthy & panic inducing, indeed… why would they do it?

I did my own calculations and ended with something MUCH more modest: a drop of less than 6% from 2013 to 2015.

Hire better blog dogs, Garth.

#55 Waterloo Resident on 03.11.13 at 11:33 pm

The ONLY way I see out of this MESS is the following:

1) – Don’t rent; if you do your money goes down the toilet.

2) – Don’t buy an overpriced house; the same thing happens; your money goes down the toilet.

3) – BEST ALTERNATIVE = MICRO HOUSE, way out in sticksville, a 2 hour commute to work each day.
Simply buy a vacant lot for about $40,000 in the middle of nowhere, then build a 500 square foot , 2-bedroom starter house, like those types we used to call ‘War-Time’ homes. Here in Kitchener, those cost around $240,000 each, but out in the sticks you can buy one for around $140,000. But build one yourself for about $30,000 and the total cost is only around $70,000 , that’s half the price!

So rent a house for now, search for a small vacant lot, buy it when you find it, and then build parts of your new future house in the backyard of the house you are renting, parts that are small enough to haul on a small trailer behind a pickup truck (8 feet x 20 feet, max).

6 units like that and you’ve got your new ‘starter’ house all finished.

To me, that is the ONLY way to win in this crazy environment.

#56 Mr Buyer on 03.11.13 at 11:39 pm

I am a little tired and stressed. I think I need to simply step back from the keyboard, back up to the door and continue backing through the door while quietly turning off the light and slowly closing the door. Much like I would do when burning my first CDs a hundred years ago when blanks were ten bucks each and I kept pressing the wrong button and cooking a CD. My buddy was going to beat the living daylights out of me one day after making shiny new coasters out of 3 of his blanks in a row clicking the same wrong button. That’s when he blurted the then new saying to me “what’s wrong with you CRACK HEAD.” I immediately took on the phrase as my own and appended it to “nice driving…CRACK HEAD.” It is now clear to see that it was a watershed moment and the beginning of a new epoch…
never mind

#57 Mr Buyer on 03.11.13 at 11:43 pm

#48 Waterloo Resident on 03.11.13 at 11:33 pm
To me, that is the ONLY way to win in this crazy environment.
…………………………………………………………………
If you were to finish it off with securing an electric car and making your own solar panels and battery banks I think you would really be on to something. I would suggest Edison Cells (low power density but extremely long life) or home made lead acid 5 gallon pail batteries.

#58 TEMPLE on 03.11.13 at 11:45 pm

#15 HDJ on 03.11.13 at 9:43 pm

Here’s the bottom line.

Interesting start. I am immediately suspicious.

Visitors to this blog who took its warnings to heart and exited the housing market a few years ago did the wrong thing.

and

opting to bail out (or stay out) of real estate was a misguided and unfortunate move – many tens of thousands down the drain. End of story.

I don’t think that is the end of the story. First, in order for you to be correct, you have to (simplistically) assume that the equity from selling an over-priced house wasn’t invested in under-priced financial assets (i.e., exactly as this blog has been suggesting for years). And, you have to further assume that you can still sell the house and recover those “many tens of thousands” after dealing with fees, taxes and the slowly awakening wits of buyers. Two dubious assumptions.

Since you seem a little slow, let me rephrase: financial assets appreciated as quickly as houses in the last few years, cost almost nothing to own and paid tax-efficient income to boot. And they are more liquid and show every sign of continuing their ascent. Housing, on the other hand, costs a lot to own, is hard to sell and is doomed to slide.

any drop in property value during the current phase of adjustment will in no way come close to wiping out those earlier profits.

That is a very confident prediction based on nothing. Have you considered the carrying costs, the effect of inflation and the opportunity cost of having a pile of equity in a slowly withering asset? Nominal values are only the tip of the iceberg. I guess that paying attention to other costs probably makes it hard for you to sell houses, right?

TEMPLE

#59 Mr Buyer on 03.11.13 at 11:47 pm

#48 Waterloo Resident on 03.11.13 at 11:33 pm
……………………………………………………………………
It always comes back to the same thing though, bush league internet access even in the heart of our biggest cities never mind 1 mile outside of town (sorry 2 kms, I flashed back to 1971 for a moment).

#60 LeeLee on 03.11.13 at 11:51 pm

From my calculations…small % gains in houses…will beat out rent ANYDAYYY W00TW00T (within ten years term)

It’s almost always a win for buyers than renters…

#61 Mr Buyer on 03.11.13 at 11:58 pm

Wired Internet in the form of Fiber Optics (not strung in tension) is light years (intended) above and beyond any wireless or wired solution. Is it a priority? Clearly not in Canada. It is hard to imagine the changes reliable, ubiquitous, cheap and extremely fast connections will bring. How we got sold back into proprietary wars with under-powered wired devices at huge data transfer costs is beyond me, but I never was all that imaginative to begin with…
never mind

#62 Vandamncouver on 03.12.13 at 12:06 am

“And they molest bulls”

LMAO!!!

#63 Joe in van (livin in it) on 03.12.13 at 12:12 am

HDJ here is my fact:
Sold in Langley BC, May 2010 for 600k without parasitic realtor, same house for sale March 2013 for 575K with parasitic realtor. The tens of thousands down the drain was not from my wallet. 600K invested, growing quite nicely, no property taxes or trips to home depot. Landlord cuts the grass and waters the hanging baskets,Who’s the mug? just asking……

#64 cramar on 03.12.13 at 12:21 am

I received a Facebook message from a friend with a link to someone she knows who FINALLY sold their SFH in Ohio. He said his house was up for sale for 5 years and 11 months! Gasp!

Sure glad the future will be different in Canada.

#65 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.12.13 at 12:23 am

-
“Or maybe he’s just scared. It wouldn’t surprise me.” — Scared of those lions? They seem happy, blissfully unaware of what’s going on around them, but shit happens.
*
3:07 clip Global Austerity — Resistance is not futile. Ever noticed that since this austerity crap started, food shortages became more frequent? 1:45 clip Lost Generation (very good clip); Breadline Britain Esp. cruel in winter; Eighty mln. Pounds The richest home in Britain; US business Offshoring money; Staying Home Saving lots; The Business of War Ten cos. who benefited greatly from war; The World’s Richest Country Not according to these stats; Internal (infernal) email suggests feds. make sequester as nasty as possible; Silicon Valley Boom and bust simultaneously; Germany Becoming anti-establishment; 6:33 clip Nasdaq’s new stock exchange; How To Waste Money Econ. 101; Sound advice Act like a one income family, invest the other income; Japan Sorting itself out; VIX shrinks; Energy Efficient How would it affect the US$?
*
Buried Volcano in south east Louisiana. Wonder if this has anything to do with the sinkhole? This is what happens when GS and JPM merge; Google Talking training shoes; Relatonships One and The Higher One Goes Relationships can be heaven and hell; New tail ‘Gator bit the last one off; Solar Cycle very weak; Fertility Destroying Chemical Depop.; BBC “UK deaths last year from antibiotic resistance: 5,000; Uk deaths last year from terrorism: nil.” So much for (Fox) fair and balanced reporting; DHS buying more arms, US Marines Does this have anything to do with DHS buying everything up? 11L21 clip US govt. preparing for civil war, Beware the drones (and DHS) of March, and Gun Control? For cops, yes; New Lambo Hot damn, this is a chick-puller but I don’t drive anymore; Various clips of earth from the ISS.

#66 McLovin on 03.12.13 at 12:37 am

Smoking Man after 41 posts you represented 15% of them.

You are just noise who most just scroll past. You add nothing and you make me miss DA.

#67 This is wonderland on 03.12.13 at 12:43 am

#14Chickenlittle

Sorry Chickenlittle, happen to know two families in Glen Abby who have just sold their homes and are heading to Hamilton with their kids. It seems that Hamilton is just fine if you are able to sell your house for 800 000 and end up with a nicer home for 200 000 less.

#68 Debtfree on 03.12.13 at 12:49 am

@61 MR Buyer. never mind ? First you fly off the handle about Internet speed . Then you leave us all hanging on three dots . I’m just getting used to how fast it is now and now you want light speed with less tension . Less tension ? This is already a slow melt no tension blog . Unless Garth’s next blog title is BOOM GO THE BOOMERS .or wait for it .sure glad we got all you youngins to help carry the dummies .

#69 Oceanside on 03.12.13 at 1:14 am

[email protected]

#70 Piccaso on 03.12.13 at 1:17 am

As you know, February’s drop was 29% in Vancouver, 28% in Montreal and 15% in Toronto – the three biggest markets in the nation.
…………………………………………………………………….

Just read the closing paragraph, already know your talking sales and not prices. When it’s prices all read the whole thing.

#71 Mr Buyer on 03.12.13 at 1:21 am

wired devices should read wireless. a classic CRACK SMOKER mistake I routinely execute

#72 Gunboat Denier on 03.12.13 at 2:08 am

“I read the article in the Vancouver Sun, and saw
this: ‘TD expects prices to fall in the next two or three
years, rising to average annual increases of 3.5 per cent
after 2015 for an average annual gain of two per cent
overall in the upcoming decade’”

This isnt too difficult. 1.02 to the 10th = 1.219
1.035 to the 8th = 1.317 or we can use
1.035 to the 7th = 1.273

Now 1.219/1.317 = 92.56% and
1.219/1.273 = 95.76%

Pretty modest drops of 7.44 over 2 years or 4.24 over 3.

“So I decided to run the numbers: what kind of a drop
would prices have to see between 2013 and 2015, such
that 3.5% increases from 2015 to 2023 net out to a gain
of 2.0%?”

Oh, there is his/her blunder. Assumed only 2% overall in ten years, not 2% anuually as orignally stated.

Garth, I hope you dont use this person to calculate
portfolio returns.

#73 Smartalox on 03.12.13 at 2:12 am

@ quantitative easing;

You’re right, I made an error in my assumptions. I assumed that the 2.0% increase after 10 years was net for the period, and not 2.0% annual. In light of this, I must revise estimate for the initial drop to between 12% and 15% by 2015.

Sorry Garth, my first mistake was reading the Vancouver Sun, instead of the source material.

Still, if the TD’s ten-year timeline follows the pattern of the US housing crisis (a quick drop followed by three years of no growth, with the recovery starting with a 5.5.% increase starting in the fourth year) it’s not just the price differential but the cost of carrying the mortgage interest on a property that is worth less than you paid, while waiting for the market to return.

#74 D-dawg on 03.12.13 at 2:13 am

#58 Temple. Factoring in complex mathematics to the analysis and using esoteric reasoning doesn’t forego the fact that many individuals who stacked up risk and bought into real estate in the past decade (the reference frame of interest) clearly have done quite well. To suggest otherwise is incredulous.

When the value of your home has doubled from what it was 10 years earlier you don’t need an excel spreadsheet to compute whether inflation or opportunity cost has eroded the nominal return.

#75 Tony on 03.12.13 at 3:02 am

The inflation rate in Canada for the next ten years is more likely to be zero each year. The best case scenario will be house prices push sideways for the next ten years.

#76 blase on 03.12.13 at 3:13 am

Here’s my prediction: The condo market is going to go very bad, very quickly. The housing market doesn’t even have to do a thing, the condo carney carnage will be bad enough. The government will be on the hook for tens of billions of dollars via CMHC. Rates will rise. Taxes will rise. Services will diminish. Unemployment will skyrocket. The government will cancel the CMHC program. There will be no more free money to buy houses. Geezers won’t lend it out to their offspring, but the offspring will be too afraid to buy anyway. There will be a dramatic reduction in first time buyers. The housing market will not have a soft landing. It will a rush to the exits. Housing prices will revert to belong the long-term mean. That means the average price will drop more than 50%. The Canadian economy will be in absolute crisis. Think Alberta 1983 on a national scale. When will this happen? Circle 2016 on your calendar folks.

#77 Tony on 03.12.13 at 3:26 am

Re: #53 Andrew on 03.11.13 at 11:31 pm

Are you for real? When prices fall demand is zero so the supply side doesn’t matter. You’ll learn in the near future as the prices plunge in Northern Toronto.

#78 too much debt on 03.12.13 at 3:49 am

Mortgages at 6% in five years? You’ll be lucky if they’re that low. — Garth

So as we all know mortgage rates are driven by the bond market, so if we will be lucky to have 6% mortgages in 5 years, bond yields are set to rise substantially. What affect will this have on the preferred shares and and dividend paying stocks that I have been buying and that you have been advising everyone to pile into? Bond yields up means preferred shares and dividend stocks share values down, no?

Fixed income prices lower as rates rise, of course. But demand can mitigate that, and good preferreds are always clammoured for. Regardless, five years is a long time with many rebalancings inbetween, and every day the shares will continue to pay income, undiminished.. — Garth

#79 Buy? Curious? on 03.12.13 at 3:54 am

Garth, we had a friend over this weekend for dinner. We had a great time though there were two things that stuck with me that she had casually mentioned. One, was that there isn’t the excitement there once was on her street when a house was sold. Before, people would start assuming that if THAT house went for THAT much, my house is worth THIS much. “I’m rich, bitch!” Now there seems to be a quiet suspicion with real estate sales. That house has been on the market for HOW long? Did he or she lose their jobs or are they getting a divorce? Fear is setting in and the herd can sense it.

The second thing she mentioned were how as a single woman in her 40’s, how unfair polygamy laws are.

Couldn’t agree with her more on both points.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrVtU25MSqQ

#80 betamax on 03.12.13 at 4:15 am

#30 Realistic realtor GTA: “Why are people paying these prices.”

Same thing happened in the states — prices were still high as sales volume slowed. Anyone buying was by definition a greater fool who didn’t know the market was turning. It was only when even stupid people got the memo that prices finally crashed.

#81 me on 03.12.13 at 4:42 am

Yea I dont get it either Mr. Buyer. Why cant a telco spend 5K and plow in some fiber to my house? Jesus, I am willing to pay them 35/mo for it. Makes perfect business sense…. I mean canada with its immense density it must be super easy to run fiber to every curb.

#82 Dark spring « Tax Rate Calculator on 03.12.13 at 5:24 am

[…] Dark spring […]

#83 Yulyyz on 03.12.13 at 6:43 am

Seeking advice today as I muddle through some financial decision I need to make very soon.
I am closing on a house purchase in a couple of weeks. (I’m within the rule of 90 and the x3.5 of income- I made sure of that). It will be the primary residence, a downsize from last one. I Have the proceeds of the last sale plus savings which allow me to pay for the new place all in one shot. I plan to live there at least 20y.
Should I pay for all of it, and invest what I have left over. (About 200k) or should I put only 20-30% deposit and take out a 5 year mortgage on the remainder at 3% and invest the cash I have, which would then be about 500k to invest through an advisor?
I keep running it around in my head to see which way would be wisest, and I can’t come up with one clear answer. PS: I have a second property from 20 years ago that is rented out and paid for- I think that I would be able to deduct mortgage interest or HELOC interest against the expenses related to the rental if I am not mistaken.
Any advice would be appreciated, thank you all!

#84 John Smith on 03.12.13 at 6:56 am

Let it drop!

I want to buy in Montreal in 2016 !

#85 jeff on 03.12.13 at 7:48 am

those are two male lions right?

#86 Smoking Man on 03.12.13 at 7:48 am

Now Moodys calling for 44 precent decline.. Lmao was the number 44 just put out there to scare HAM..

Seams they have a new excel model… Hope it has a column that counts offspring of Italian, Portuguese, Greeks, Indians who’s parents only know real estate, and mistrust capital markets.

The herd decides the market, not some phd harvered Suck up.

#87 Ralph Cramdown Ⓤ on 03.12.13 at 7:54 am

#82 Yulyyz
If you’re going to take out a mortgage on your residence, pay cash for the house first and then put a mortgage on it. That way, the proceeds of the mortgage are for investment purposes and you can deduct the interest you pay as an investment expense.

#88 jess on 03.12.13 at 7:56 am

see chart
The share of the unemployed who have been jobless for six months or more, 1948-2013

Economic Policy Institute. 2012. Job seekers stuck in unemployment longer than ever before
The State of Working America. Washington, D.C.: Economic Policy Institute.

http://stateofworkingamerica.org/charts/long-term-unemployment/
====================

swaps trades
http://treasureislands.org/something-crucial-about-dodd-frank-that-few-have-noticed/
“comity” – http://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/comity
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/112/hr3283

#89 Riveted on 03.12.13 at 8:25 am

Halifax Observer:

To your point, from $429,900 to $359,900 in 10 months.

http://www.viewpoint.ca/property/cutsheet/00066274#property-sales-history

And the agent’s sales pitch says it all:

“Reduced – Priced below appraised value…Work the numbers and realize the benefits in owning this investment property…”

#90 The Man From Nantucket on 03.12.13 at 8:37 am

#55 Waterloo Resident on 03.11.13 at 11:33 pm
……..But build one yourself for about $30,000…….

————————————————–

OK, I’ll bite – Are you drunk?

You cannot even buy a nice camper trailer for $30,000, let alone build a modest house

#91 gladiator on 03.12.13 at 8:48 am

Garth,
vot ar yu toking aba-oot? Tee Dee sez no haoozing ba-bl. Rid ze nyuz.

#92 gladiator on 03.12.13 at 9:08 am

sorry, I felt the urge to “correct” you before I got to your mention of Tee Diddly Dee bank.

#93 HalifaxEd on 03.12.13 at 9:13 am

#4 Halifax Observer

I agree. Long-term demographics are a concern for the region and though an influx of people would go a long way to alleviating the future pain, the population is notoriously resistant to “newcomers”, both foreign and domestic.

And the leadership has never recognized that band-aid quick-fix solutions (such as corporate bribe money) do not make a truly vibrant healthy economy. There needs to be real incentives to lure workers and businesses; the fundamentals will then take care of themselves.

What frightens me the most are the blinders that many people seem to have. As you mention, the promises of shipbuilding has them dazzled. If you say anything remotely skeptical or approach it with anything less than wide-eyed drooling wonder you are met with disdain and accused of being too negative.

When I mention that several properties are dropping in asking/sold price or sitting for hundreds of days, they tell me about their cousin’s friend’s neighbor that sold for more than asking before the ink was even dry on the listing contract.

I hope the region can turn things around. But high hopes and cheery optimism do not change the reality of the situation, no matter how many roadside signs or propaganda pamphlets the government prints. Our fellow Maritimers deserve far better than perpetual smoke being blown.

#94 Alta Lad on 03.12.13 at 9:26 am

#14 Chickenlittle – never mention bullies by name.

On a diff note, just returned from a vacation in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

The locals are asking, ‘… where have all the Americans gone? … ‘

The majority of the guests at our hotel were middle-class Mexicans.

#95 live within your means on 03.12.13 at 9:32 am

Divorce can really screw up one’s finances as well as living way beyond one’s means. Seems B&SIL will be divorcing. She will return to France w/their 10 YO son. He’s agreed, but will really miss his son. BIL had the home paid off when they met 13+ yrs ago. Then all the renos, SS, Bosch appliances, etc. using a HELOC. She was out of work for 4 years (health issues). She used to make $65-70K & some yrs. he made $120K. They lived high on the hog even while she wasn’t working. They considered us frugal. Well, in comparison to them, I guess so. Their breakup is not related to finances; BIL is at fault & he knows it.

They had a RE guy come in. She thought the house could fetch $400k in Laval. He said no, could put it on for $350. & maybe get $330. Half goes to her. He’s finally concluded he can’t afford to buy her out & keep the house. Plus, he’ll have to pay child support.

Wonder when he’ll tell his parents. We like his wife & plan on remaining in touch when she returns to France. She’s a chemist & is a sales rep for a phama co. & shouldn’t have problems finding work. She’s extremely pretty, smart (not financially prudent), very outgoing & speaks 3 languages.

#96 Grady Good God on 03.12.13 at 9:38 am

#45: Mr. Buyer, aren’t you embellishing just a *tad* much? I mean, c’mon… If I hear one more damn Canadian claim how he or she *almost* got mugged or shot in the US, I’m going to puke. Its funny how it never happens, but *almost* does to Canadians only. And by your intimation, apparently it’s happened several times! Statistically, you’re one in several million. I mean, where are you going when you go to the U.S.? Watts? South Central Chicago? Brightmoor Detroit? Yeah, I didn’t think so. So really, you do sound ridiculous. I’ve lived here now for 36 years, and yet once have I ever been approached an *almost* mugged or *almost* shot, and I’ve lived in several cities in downtown neighbourhoods. Same goes for my entire group of friends and family. Again, I’ve never seen a people, Canadians, live in such fear and embellished “truth.” That’s why I am now a US citizen. Truthfully, though, I was mugged in Vancouver, B.C.!

#97 Dupcheck on 03.12.13 at 9:45 am

We need a high speed train from Windsor to Montreal. If that happens there will be no need to live in GTA.

#98 Bargains everywhere on 03.12.13 at 9:51 am

#72 Gunboat Denier on 03.12.13 at 2:08 am

Thank you, Gunboat. My calculations are the same. TD does’t expect much of a drop over the next couple of years. I believe they will be incorrect.

#99 Shawn Allen on 03.12.13 at 10:02 am

A NOBEL PRIZE IN ECONOMICS FOR TONY?

Tony at 77 said:

When prices fall demand is zero so the supply side doesn’t matter.

****************************************

Stop the presses! Supply and demand rules of economics are all wrong! Demand now falls with lower prices! Imagine!

#100 World Traveller on 03.12.13 at 10:02 am

Speak about Spain, another one bites the dust.

http://www.murciatoday.com/spanish-banks-and-cajas-continue-to-shed-jobs-as-real-estate-crisis-bites_15458-a.html

#101 World Traveller on 03.12.13 at 10:13 am

I wonder when the “Spanish Spring” is coming?

http://www.murciatoday.com/the-cumbre-social-calls-thousands-to-protest-across-spain_15427-a.html

#102 neo on 03.12.13 at 10:15 am

At #70Piccaso on 03.12.13 at 1:17 am
As you know, February’s drop was 29% in Vancouver, 28% in Montreal and 15% in Toronto – the three biggest markets in the nation.
…………………………………………………………………….

Just read the closing paragraph, already know your talking sales and not prices. When it’s prices all read the whole thing.
—————————————————————-

That is in fact the most salient point. I’ve already said to Garth numerous times we had 12 straight months of sales declines May 2010 – May 2011. It meant nothing to prices during and after. It also brings up what the definition of a “soft landing” is. I noticed brokers want f’s rules reversed because it is affecting sales, yet prices are at all-time highs. Look at the volume on the Dow. It is at 1998 levels, yet we are at all time highs. What difference does volume make if prices keep levitating?

Yes, sales/volume means very little until prices start a sustained downtrend.

#103 World Traveller on 03.12.13 at 10:18 am

Looks like it may be a good time to buy a cheap rental property in Spain, Garth.

http://www.murciatoday.com/rental-protection-insurance-booming-as-spanish-rentals-market-changes_15471-a.html

#104 AisA on 03.12.13 at 10:26 am

pop

Now, every time a house catches fire I will have to wonder how many days it was on the market and how much lower than asking the bids got before the owner couldn’t take it anymore.

This is going to be so much fun for anyone who doesn’t have any skin in the game yet.

I got all the patience in the world.

#105 live within your means on 03.12.13 at 10:32 am

#92 HalifaxEd on 03.12.13 at 9:13 am
#4 Halifax Observer

I agree. Long-term demographics are a concern for the region and though an influx of people would go a long way to alleviating the future pain, the population is notoriously resistant to “newcomers”, both foreign and domestic.
………………………..
Not sure if it still exists they way it did years ago. When I & sis moved here in ’76 it took us a few years to be accepted cause we were from ‘away’ tho most of my relatives lived in NS. Sad to say, but we both found there was a real Domani work attitude among the locals. I decided to take the summer off when I moved here. Collected the only EI cheque in my life. Started working Sept. 4 after several interviews with the Prov. govt. They we’re the only ones paying a decent wage & even then it was lower than I earned in Mtl. & costs here were higher. My boss was from Mtl. He headed our prov. computer centre. Lots of changes over the years – I was eager, adaptable & had a great memory then. At 54 I retired, having bought back 3 years of service with the Feds in Ottawa. After 4 restructurings in 5 years I was totally fed up. Well worth it.

I’m sure in a couple of years my indexed pension will cease to exist. It’s already been reduced. I feel bad for the younger generation. Sad that this con govt. spends oodles of millions each year on propagandist tax payer Economic Actions Plan ads, but has cut out so many front line staff that provide services to the public.
……………………….
Leadership has never recognized that band-aid quick-fix solutions (such as corporate bribe money) do not make a truly vibrant healthy economy. There needs to be real incentives to lure workers and businesses; the fundamentals will then take care of themselves.
…………………

Problem is that most jurisdictions in Canada & the US over many years have had to compete with ever increasing incentives to lure business to their regions. It’s not just here. But, I do agree with you.
……………………..

What frightens me the most are the blinders that many people seem to have. As you mention, the promises of shipbuilding has them dazzled. If you say anything remotely skeptical or approach it with anything less than wide-eyed drooling wonder you are met with disdain and accused of being too negative.
………………
Totally agree. I recall when the shipbuilding contract was first announced. I read several articles at the time (not in the local paper) that said most of the contracts for all the technical stuff would go offshore & all we’d be left with is building the shell (for lack of the correct word) of those ships. No transfer of technology.

…………………………

I hope the region can turn things around. But high hopes and cheery optimism do not change the reality of the situation, no matter how many roadside signs or propaganda pamphlets the government prints. Our fellow Maritimers deserve far better than perpetual smoke being blown.

#106 Herb on 03.12.13 at 10:39 am

#82 Yulyyz,

I second Ralph Cramdown at #86. It’s the only way to go in your circumstances.

#107 chickenlittle on assignment on 03.12.13 at 10:44 am

I see the name “Hamilton” strikes a chord in people!

I see Hamilton like a lot of Americans would see New Jersey: has a bad reputation but it has nice parts, kind of like Sean Avery. Anyways, taxes are high, but you can get a nice house for way less than in Oakville. Locke St is nice. So is Dundas and Ancaster. Personally, I would move back just because of the low prices but convincing the hubby to do so is impossible. Besides, its BORING!!! And terrible shopping…

#108 Greg on 03.12.13 at 10:45 am

Garth, I think your numbers need some work. If a house returns 2% annually over the next decade, then it’s worth 122% of its 2013 value. OTOH, if returns are 3.5% for the last 8 years, then its annual drop in 2014 and 2015 is only 3.79% annually.

Value * (0.9621)^2 * 1.035^8 = 122.

#109 live within your means on 03.12.13 at 10:51 am

OT – Been watching, listening & reading stuff on the net about Shingles. I had them – halfway around my waist as a young child. Was hospitalized at the time. Several years ago my elder neighbour, in her 70’s, got them for the 2nd time. Very painful. Read some real horror stories on the net.

Will see my Dr. this month & will ask her if she recommends me getting the vaccine. It only lasts 5 yrs & is v. painful as it has to be in a frozen state when administered. Apparently people with a compromised immune system might benefit more. A BIL thinks I should get it. Not sure.

Anyone with more insight?

#110 Doug in London on 03.12.13 at 10:51 am

@HDJ, post #15:
That’s the exact kind of reasoning which has been present in other real estate bubbles, or other asset bubbles like tech stocks in 1999-2000 or gold in 1980 (and possibly 2012). Unless you are some super psychic person who knows what’s on every potential buyer or sellers mind, it’s IMPOSSIBLE to predict when the top of a bubble will occur, but eventually it will occur. Did I read somewhere that this bubble will end badly?

#111 Buy? Curious? on 03.12.13 at 10:55 am

Hey Garth! Could I sell t-shirts with one of your classic one-liners superimpossed on a picture of someone in Kensington Market? You can be the Che Guevara of Canada! I’m only going to start with a 100 to get a sense of demand. Then I got an order on hold to print 2500.

Whayyada say?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Txrjv7Jhjgk

#112 Old Man on 03.12.13 at 11:01 am

Beware the Ides of March which is the 15th, so on the 14th one must take it easy.

#113 Daisy Mae on 03.12.13 at 11:03 am

“…..heard about Canada’s mortgage brokers, furiously lobbying F to rescue real estate in his coming budget.”

********************

Stress can wreak havoc on a body…and F’s skin condition is probably a result of the stress that he, alone, created. And now, he pays with yet more pressure. He can’t backtrack. He’s done enuf damage.

Let’s restrict our observations of F to his deeds, not his ailment. — Garth

#114 maxx on 03.12.13 at 11:05 am

#33 Smoking Man on 03.11.13 at 10:41 pm

“……..mind you, you used the word fundamental, not sure if you can be saved at this point.”

Smoke, you have a sense of humour, and then some. LOL, exceedingly good!

#115 maxx on 03.12.13 at 11:09 am

#37 OnlyTheBankersLaugh on 03.11.13 at 10:57 pm

“escarpment limitations”…..wow, just when you thought you’d puked enough on corporate communications yuck-speak.

#116 Smoking Man on 03.12.13 at 11:09 am

#43 Tom Vu on 03.11.13 at 11:19 pm
Smoking Man:How you can type when both arms tied in straight jacket and with Hannibal Lecter goalie mask is truly amazing feat.
………….

Not easy hence the tpyos……. Thanks for the compliment, being a normal in this day and age is insane….

#117 Benny Hill on 03.12.13 at 11:30 am

NICE THE 2 MALE LIONS

This is an inclusive blog. Buzz off. — Garth

#118 Daisy Mae on 03.12.13 at 11:30 am

#41 Smoking Man: “I’m really happy today, two weeks of hell. Wondering if the doctors put her and me threw this shit just to make a buck….”

********************

I’m happy for you both. IF your wife had a mammogram, and the results were a ‘false positive’ I’ve heard THAT before…many, many times.

#119 KinKalgary on 03.12.13 at 11:36 am

It’s still krazy here in calgary, homes are not sitting on the market long. looked at one yesterday needs a total gut asking 425. homes in the area that have been completely renovated with windows, roofs, yards etc are selling for 600-650.. it had 13 offers and sold last night over list. My realturd is going to let me know when he finds out..
Have no idea where this is all going but the attitude here is still “well it’s different here”

#120 rosie "moving forward" on 03.12.13 at 11:38 am

#108

My coffee is cooler than normal. Should I microzap it or make a new pot? People, people, help me out here.

#121 Old Man on 03.12.13 at 11:41 am

#82 Yulyyz – do the deposit scenerio with a mortgage at 3.00% for 5 years, and with the $500,000 get a qualified investment advisor to hoop you some dividend tax credits. He needs to look at the rental property scenerio which is all paid for to ascertain the total picture. You need a complete assessment quickly
before closing.

#122 all_we_need_is_mortgage on 03.12.13 at 11:46 am

It’s not just houses are over valuated by 25% it is people consumption exceeds income by at least 25%. That excess is solely financed with the credit money. Remove that excess and Canada will turn into… something… in terms of standard of living.

#123 Daisy Mae on 03.12.13 at 11:49 am

#84jeff: “those are two male lions right?”

*********************

Brothers. They often stay together.

#124 James on 03.12.13 at 11:55 am

Garth,

Why aren’t you addressing the math? Many people is correcting the alleged error.

Wasn’t my math. — Garth

#125 Wes Mantooth on 03.12.13 at 12:00 pm

“Mortgages at 6% in five years? You’ll be lucky if they’re that low. — Garth”

I 100% guarantee you that if mortgage rates are north of 6% in 5 years, housing prices will be significantly higher. This economy will be so hot that people won’t even care what the mortgage rate is…

You can’t have one without the other… and if you are about to say that inflation is going to get out of control, commodities are our bread and butter… nice little inflation hedge in this country.

#126 John Prine on 03.12.13 at 12:04 pm

Looked at a house last week that has been on the market for 190 days at $599,000. The price went UP the other day to $619,000, apparently the neighbours pressured the owner to put the price up because they think that he is going to affect the value of their homes by asking too little…Amazing that people can be so unaware with all the housing news now in MSM.

#127 Old Man on 03.12.13 at 12:12 pm

Well was walking out for my daily shopping, as need to keep my old car running on a daily basis, and was stopped by a guard, as all doors will be open for the painting renovations. Here is my latest report on the retail economy, as went to 3 places. I went to the TD Bank for $100, and no greeter to say hi, and out of 6 tellers only one was on duty; no customers except me, and the other two places nobody in sight. I came back and the painter was there to apply a prime, and then the final coat over a perfect wine coloured door; said wtf as it was dark brown, and he said yep looks like chit, and keep the door open for two hours.

#128 Tom Vu on 03.12.13 at 12:17 pm

#79 Buy? Curious? on 03.12.13 at 3:54 am

The second thing she mentioned were how as a single woman in her 40′s, how unfair polygamy laws are.

Couldn’t agree with her more on both points.
===================================

Sounds like a keeper.
Suggest move to Utah..say hi to Donny and Marie

#129 live within your means on 03.12.13 at 12:30 pm

#123 Daisy Mae on 03.12.13 at 11:49 am
#84jeff: “those are two male lions right?”

*********************

Brothers. They often stay together.
—————-

YEP. Sounds like Jeff maybe homophobic.

#130 Mike in Surrey on 03.12.13 at 12:40 pm

#47 Quantitative Analyst: My MATH on TD report is One Million dollar house times 98.58% for 3 years, times 103.5% for 7 years, equals to 2% compounded increase each year ($1.219 Million at end of 10 years). After 3 years, it’s -4.2% (no bubble and said NOTHING). It would be a bargain at -22.5% in a good hood. I see -10% in 3 years.

#131 jess on 03.12.13 at 12:48 pm

lioness with mane -increased levels of androgens better to deceive those foreign males

#132 jess on 03.12.13 at 12:52 pm

old man – from the other day

mainland vs the island

“Oligarchy Island”: Behind the Hong Kong Protests | Global Researchwww.globalresearch.ca/oligarchy…the-hong-kong-protests/5317807You +1’d this publicly. Undo
Jan 5, 2013 – The recent wave of protest in Hong Kong may herald bigger problems. Economic woes may escalate the already-rampant acrimony between …

September 10, 2012
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2012/0910/Hong-Kong-sees-surge-of-democratic-fervor-after-patriotic-education-showdown

Beijing-backed leader backed down on a plan to introduce a compulsory Chinese school curriculum after tens of thousands of people took to the streets.
“You had 16-year-olds bringing their parents into politics, not the other way around.”

#133 Bargains everywhere on 03.12.13 at 1:05 pm

#84jeff: “those are two male lions right?”

*********************

Brothers. They often stay together.

*********************

Yes, brothers. They are more successful hunting in pairs.

#134 Rusty Venture on 03.12.13 at 1:07 pm

#125@Wes Mantooth.

I can’t tell if you’re joking or not. Doesn’t conventional wisdom suggest that higher mortgage rates would tend to drive house prices down?

Then again, with all the money injected into the system by central banks, are you suggesting that this will be inflationary for certain asset classes?

My regards to your mother, Dorothy. I’m sorry I didn’t call her back…

#135 Drill Baby Drill on 03.12.13 at 1:23 pm

Read the headline on today Calgary Herald “Calgary Housing Bucking National Trend”. It is different here. Not really only delayed.

#136 Old Man on 03.12.13 at 1:28 pm

Smoking Man heard a rumour that you might be in a bit of trouble , as you were seen by one girlfriend coming out of Southside Johnny’s with two new girls late at night, and she is not a happy camper. You must learn to cover your tracks a bit more.

#137 jess on 03.12.13 at 1:39 pm

how neutral

State Department Keystone XL Report Written By TransCanada Hiree
Tuesday, 12 March 2013 09:40
By Judy Molland, Care2 | Report

http://truth-out.org/news/item/15065-state-department-keystone-xl-report-written-by-transcanada-hiree

#138 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03.12.13 at 1:54 pm

Once upon a time, last December, I told you the tale of a sad little bung in North Toronto with crappy shingles and two dead cars outside.

Are we amazed at this at all? Of course not this is Toronto we are talking about. Everyone and their brother wants to have property in the big smoke so they can boutique, catch the opera, drink mimosas early morn at the Club as they drop the children off at daycare in a fancy BMW. These knuckleheads will go to the ends of the earth to get that special property and build a McMansion in Toronto. Money means nothing. Their primary objective is the hedge out the old folk in a 1950’s bungalow at a bargain price so they can slash and burn the property. The out of the ashes rises the Phoenix, (epiphany here, plus angelic music in the background) the McManison ta, da! I would venture to say that if common sense were applied here the investors would take heed and walk but they won’t. They are “Moving On Up” as the song goes on the “Jefferson’s.” Everyone wants a piece of the pie; well it’s going to be Humble Pie! I don’t want to say it but what the hell, “When the crash comes lets see how many of these partially built McMansions go on the market to try to recoup a percentage of their initial investment dollars.”
Oh I can smell it, spring is here, oh look at the lovely flowers. Isn’t spring tornado season??????

#139 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 03.12.13 at 1:59 pm

#41 Smoking Man on 03.11.13 at 11:15 pm

I’m really happy today, two weeks of hell. Wondering if the doctors put her and me threw this shit just to make a buck…. If that’s the case I understand.. But next time other people please…. You don’t wana be on my shit list, just look what’s about to happen to the insurance industry…

=================================

“GOOGLE” Drs Jennifer Daniels and Rebecca Carley.

Good Internet radio shows. Talk a lot about diagnostic tools may create more harm than good.

Lethal Injection: The Story Of Vaccination
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UioC6ARoLEM

Since Rockekefellers took over medicine after Flexner Report…its been a racket. If people knew what they are being injected with, it would freak them out.

Haven’t had one since 1986. No way no how.

Liability you say? whole other topic…

#140 Steven Rowlandson on 03.12.13 at 2:06 pm

Whom the gods would destroy they first make mad. Mad as in crazy.
The extreme real estate prices in the above essay are a classic example of out of control madness that requires correction if not outright punishment.

#141 Tom Vu on 03.12.13 at 2:08 pm

One of lions is cross dresser, going to ” lion pride” parade been in Toronto too long.

#142 Oakvillain on 03.12.13 at 2:26 pm

#120 “My coffee is cooler than normal. Should I microzap it or make a new pot? People, people, help me out here.”

I am an experienced coffee broker and am qualified to answer your question. The apparent cooling of your coffee is actually the result of normal seasonal variation, combined with the effects of government-imposed rules designed to curtail dangerously high coffee temperatures. Rather than assess the heat of your coffee minute by minute, you should look at the longterm hourly figures. In the past hour, your coffee changed from cold water and grounds at roughly 4 degrees Celsius, to a tasty liquid at 50 degrees Celsius. That’s an adjusted Celsius increase of 1250%. As you can see, in the long run, COFFEE GETS WARMER. I advise you not to microwave your coffee, or throw it out, but to hang in there for the long run and profit from the rise in temperature that will almost certainly occur over the next hour or two.

#143 CP on 03.12.13 at 2:27 pm

Have no fear, the hornies are alive, well and still devoid of their senses:

http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2013/03/12/junction_triangle_fixerupper_attracts_40_offers_and_sells_for_almost_200000_over_asking.html

Purposeful tatic of listing a property for $200,000 less than comparables, to engender a frenzy. No glory on this sale. — Garth

#144 Daisy Mae on 03.12.13 at 2:30 pm

#131jess: “lioness with mane….”

********************

These two males are very young. Their manes haven’t fully developed. They’ll soon mate, and the two prides will stay together.

And now…back to real estate before Garth reminds us that this isn’t a lion blog. :)

#145 Old Man on 03.12.13 at 2:33 pm

#141 Tom Vu – I take exception with your comment, as will never discriminate against the gays, as it may not be on my page in life, but will accept this all, and for those that know me put my cards on the table. They respect me for being honest, and all is well, as some of them have big money, and they respect me for saying not for me, but will show respect for your sordid life, and they just laugh.

#146 syfon on 03.12.13 at 2:36 pm

#142
Thanks
I liked that long answer.
If we can add silver lined filter to purify the water the answer will be complete.

#147 Daisy Mae on 03.12.13 at 2:37 pm

#133 Bargains: “Yes, brothers. They are more successful hunting in pairs.”

*******************

As a matter of fact, the lioness’ do the hunting. The entire pride will work together. The lion will step in, if needed. And he is always the first to dine.

#148 zeeman1 on 03.12.13 at 2:50 pm

How ’bout this:

http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2013/03/12/junction_triangle_fixerupper_attracts_40_offers_and_sells_for_almost_200000_over_asking.html

One of the worst hoods in To, I’m sure the buyer will make their money back in 20 years or so.

#149 Adam on 03.12.13 at 2:55 pm

#142

LMAO. Funniest comment I’ve read this far on greaterfool.ca

#150 17 yr old has question on 03.12.13 at 2:57 pm

Thanks to: Old Man, Bargains Everywhere& Temple for your answers to my post.

Hey Smoking Man- what volatile stocks? I like your thinking and I need specifics. Man up and give me some tips. Thanks

#151 Ralph Cramdown Ⓤ on 03.12.13 at 3:05 pm

Yeah, when they’re still calling it an “up and coming” neighbourhood at this stage in the cycle, and the listing agent/ringmaster is quoted as saying ‘I hope nobody breaks into my car,’ you know you’ve got a winning flip.

#152 betamax on 03.12.13 at 3:10 pm

#109 lwym: “Anyone with more insight?”

Buy ‘Eat to Live’ by Dr. Joel Fuhrman, read it, then decide. Also watch the video ‘Fat, Sick and Nearly Dead.’

#153 TheManWhoStaresAtSheeple on 03.12.13 at 3:11 pm

Re #143 CP
Have no fear, the hornies are alive, well and still devoid of their senses:
http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2013/03/12/junction_triangle_fixerupper_attracts_40_offers_and_sells_for_almost_200000_over_asking.html
======================================
This article was a follow up from another Susan Pig article posted just a few days ago:
http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2013/03/08/junction_triangle_fixerupper_creates_a_frenzy.html

one example of such buyer – “One Toronto man, a part-time contractor, left his wife behind and flew back from a vacation in Brazil Friday, keen to get into the Armstrong Ave. home before bids are accepted Monday.
He drove directly from Pearson airport after spending days on a beach going over the MLS information, and arrived at the front door with a plan and price — considerably over asking — in mind.
He seemed unfazed by all the cars and the crowd of potential buyers going in and out.
“This house is going to be a gem,” said the 52-year-old man, a part-time renovator for the past 30 years who didn’t want his name used for fear of alerting his full-time boss. ”

Anyone willing to bet on this buyer occupation – my money is on him being a public servant (of these that usually deal with fires)

#154 Snickers on 03.12.13 at 3:22 pm

Awesome pic Garth – Lions are such gracious but feared animal –

I am getting so sick of all the chatter by the banks now – as long as they can squeeze another cent out of the average joe – and when they can’t squeeze anymore – some guy now claims that the ride is over –

There are boardrooms all across the country where business leaders are devising a plan on exploiting those as the real estate market moves downward – why does TD make such a bold statement now – it’s like yelling fire when the fire was been blazing for the past 3 hours – what gives!!

#155 Doug in London on 03.12.13 at 3:30 pm

Something I should add to my comment #110. It was 13 years ago from about now the NASDAQ (which, after the tech wreck became known as the Nauseate-DAQ) reached a high of about 5000. Some people saw a bubble developing when it was in the low 4000’s and bailed out. Were they fools because they left too early? Maybe in the short term, but in the long term it proved to be a good idea. For those of you waiting for housing prices to come back to within sight of Earth with the aid of a good telescope, and watching prices going up, up, up when the fundamentals don’t support it, your frustration is understandable. However, those of you who are patient will be rewarded eventually with a buyers market and more sensible prices.

#156 Tom Vu on 03.12.13 at 3:31 pm

#145 Old Man on 03.12.13 at 2:33 pm

#141 Tom Vu – I take exception with your comment, as will never discriminate against the gays, as it may not be on my page in life, but will accept this all, and for those that know me put my cards on the table. They respect me for being honest, and all is well, as some of them have big money, and they respect me for saying not for me, but will show respect for your sordid life, and they just laugh.

====================================

Dear Mr Old Man.

You not read Tabloids ?

Remember my TV ads….and my boat crew ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K853GykeGH0

You think they were all born that way ?
Many are retired Leaf players !

#157 Jim on 03.12.13 at 3:32 pm

Mclovin:

Smoking Man after 41 posts you represented 15% of them.

You are just noise who most just scroll past. You add nothing and you make me miss DA.

======

No kidding. I’ll add Beach Girl to the “automatically scroll past” list as well.

Memo to Beach Girl: nobody cares about your love life or dinner parties. Seriously, the Kardashians are less self absorbed than you.

#158 Roial1 on 03.12.13 at 3:42 pm

Prediction:
You are about to see the WORST shit storm of dirty political adds in Canadian, and world history!

Harpo and cronies will NOT be able to stop themselves.

All because of the Liberals new leader.

Justin scares the shit out of them.

Problem is, they will destroy the country before anything can be done to stop them.

I predict a deficit so big and deep that Canada can NEVER recover.

Sooooooooo, Garth, where did you find those squirl recipies?

#159 Smoking Man on 03.12.13 at 3:48 pm

#136 Old Man on 03.12.13 at 1:28 pm
Smoking Man heard a rumour that you might be in a bit of trouble , as you were seen by one girlfriend coming out of Southside Johnny’s with two new girls late at night, and she is not a happy camper. You must learn to cover your tracks a bit more.

………………..

Ha wasn’t me, bald guys look the same….. You should know my code by now… When it comes to woman and vacation properties, short term rentals only…. :)

#160 dingus gittens on 03.12.13 at 3:48 pm

SFH in Toronto are not dropping in price. There are so many buyers waiting to pounce. Homes south of Lawrence and from the junction/parkdale to the beaches/reaches are all stable. There is hardly anything for sale. complete gut jobs (like the one in the article) are valued at 500k and up. And until rates are 5% this is not changing. Condos are everywhere and they will get hurt but SFH homes (especially detached) are a hot commodity in TO and will be for years to come. These high prices are here to stay.

#161 Bottoms_Up on 03.12.13 at 3:58 pm

#142 Oakvillain on 03.12.13 at 2:26 pm
—————————————
You forgot “and they’re running out of land to sow coffee plants”

#162 Smoking Man on 03.12.13 at 4:05 pm

#118 Daisy Mae on 03.12.13 at 11:30 am

Thanks daisy, wasn’t a false positive, it was me diagnosing, the diagnoser, read him wrong, he’s body language screamed big problems here. After all the tests and bs…. It was all good. They are running a business after all, dident have a column for that in my spreadsheet.. I do now…):) <<<<< uni brow

#163 Ronaldo on 03.12.13 at 4:17 pm

#65 Nostradamus –

”They seem happy, blissfully unaware of what’s going on around them, but shit happens.”

Perfect statement as you look around at all the people walking around like zombies plugged into their IPhones, Ipods, or whatever, unaware of what is going on around them. What a world this is turning into.

#164 Nathan on 03.12.13 at 4:30 pm

@ #148 zeeman1

I’ve started to play a little game whereby I scan the homepage of the Toronto Star and try to guess the article written by Susan Pigg. I get it right pretty much every time. The blatantly subjective real estate pumping is hard to miss.

#165 leo on 03.12.13 at 4:52 pm

I also confirm that the math were wrong.

a 2% annual increase over ten years brings an 21.9% increase.

Compare to :
year 1 : -4.2% (decrease)
year 2 and 3 : 0
year 4 to 10 : 3.5%
-> This brings also an 21.9% overall increase.

TD really believes in a very soft landing…

#166 HogtownIndebted on 03.12.13 at 4:58 pm

#142 Oakvillain

Brilliant satire. You’ve earned your 2.5%, and are clearly as well-trained as a lawyer.

#167 JC on 03.12.13 at 5:22 pm

Garth, claiming “it’s not your math” hidden in the comments is irresponsible and this is ALL about the numbers. I’m a supporter through and through and post lots of your information to Facebook to help inform the masses. However, if the numbers are wrong then acknowledgement should be made with an edited response or you’re no better than the misrepresented numbers the CREA have been reporting. Without reading the comments I would have trusted those numbers were accurate (since you didn’t indicate otherwise) and would have spread false information. It doesn’t mean you need to say you believed those numbers were accurate but use it again as another way that many people still don’t understand how the numbers work.

The attribution was clear, as have been the comments. — Garth

#168 Humpty Dumpty on 03.12.13 at 5:24 pm

139 Dr. Hoof – Hearted on 03.12.13 at 1:59 pm

Hers’s a little serum for the truth….

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/12/judge-approves-truth-serum-james-holmes

#169 DonDWest on 03.12.13 at 5:31 pm

I’m afraid we still have quite a way to go before Halifax returns to reality. Here’s a guy that’s trying to sell his garden shed (383 sqft) for just under 200K in the Hydrostone area.

Basically, it’s an old garden shed of the house to the right. The owner is trying to sell it off as a “small starter bungalow in a desirable area.” At 383 sqft, this “house” is smaller than most condo boxes in Toronto. You could buy a used trailer for a hundred dollars and park it on the side of the street, and it would be much larger than this “house”.

This “house” has to be without a doubt the greatest moment of cognitive dissonance I’ve ever seen:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12879824&PidKey=-1344444548

#170 Ralph Cramdown Ⓤ on 03.12.13 at 5:32 pm

#160 dingus gittens — “SFH in Toronto are not dropping in price. There are so many buyers waiting to pounce. Homes south of Lawrence and from the junction/parkdale to the beaches/reaches are all stable. There is hardly anything for sale.”

The stats show that there’s more for sale than last year, but fewer being sold. Why are all the buyers WAITING to pounce?

Hey, wasn’t there a metalhead around here a few days ago who was following the lead of Russia and China? Because the Kremlin just announced a new appointment to the chair of the central bank…. Elvira Printingpressova. So much for that theory.

#171 jess on 03.12.13 at 5:40 pm

140 Steven Rowlandson

On March 11, 2013 the Los Angeles Times published a revealing article by E. Scott Reckard entitled: “In major policy shift, scores of FDIC settlements go unannounced.”

Four key facts about the FDIc’s leadership and its litigation director.
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2013/03/which-aspect-of-the-fdics-litigation-failures-is-the-most-embarrassing-and-damaging.html#more-4998

#172 Smoking Man on 03.12.13 at 5:50 pm

#157 Jim on 03.12.13 at 3:32 pm
Mclovin:Smoking Man after 41 posts you represented 15% of them.You are just noise who most just scroll past. You add nothing and you make me miss DA.
………………………
Jim
You really think they just scroll past……

Your new here obviously….. You will catch on…

What you really resent is not the content but the fact that I love myself, I’m the greatest….. You where trained to dislike that for a very good reason. You think we should keep our heads down and be good little obedient dogs…

To bad, one day when I explain why that behavior is taught, you will miss it.

#173 Stew on 03.12.13 at 5:54 pm

as we have seen in the recent large gains in prices with the US recovery..
OBAMACARE will take care of that..easily.

Wifes boss (30 years in biz) stated that the layoffs are becoming crazy..she works for a Canadian/US placing company. Many are claiming they will be losing their homes..AGAIN..Don’t believe the propaganda that the media spews..sumbuddy gonna get hurt..real bad..

#174 45north on 03.12.13 at 6:11 pm

http://www.chase.com is down!

https://www.chase.com/

from zerohedge

#175 Dr. Hoof - Hearted on 03.12.13 at 6:33 pm

#168 Humpty Dumpty on 03.12.13 at 5:24 pm

=====================================

OMG……are they getting that desperate for Patsies ?

#176 live within your means on 03.12.13 at 7:06 pm

#147 Daisy Mae on 03.12.13 at 2:37 pm
#133 Bargains: “Yes, brothers. They are more successful hunting in pairs.”

*******************

As a matter of fact, the lioness’ do the hunting. The entire pride will work together. The lion will step in, if needed. And he is always the first to dine.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

So very true. I love watching nature programs, tho some of them are ‘rigged’.

#177 DL on 03.12.13 at 7:13 pm

Garth maybe didn’t know that the numbers were wrong? You can thank the realtors here for providing the facts (again) -giving the correct numbers.

Again, many,many realtors are number experts (accountants without the credentials) but because you have dealt with the bottom end of the Bell curve you slander all realtors.
And of course Garth logs IP’s or how else would he know when people are posting under multiple names.
Sometimes I wonder if the majority of people here have even graduated high school based on the lack of knowledge. I know Garth gets just as frustrated as I do at times.

#178 Ret on 03.12.13 at 7:28 pm

#55 Waterloo- small houses

I really like the simplicity and layouts of those IKEA demonstration micro homes in their stores. Detached, energy efficient and low maintenance works for me.

I probably could build one of those IKEA houses for $30,000 and with the money that I would save, I could buy a shearling coat!

In all seriousness, those wartime and verterans’ homes were all that most people needed. Some families raised two, three or more children in them. They were an efficient use of space and have stood up very well. The wartime homes were considered to be only temporary housing to be used until the end of the war!

The veteran’s homes built in West Hamilton after the war, 65-70 years ago, still look very good.

Veteran’s homes had poured concrete foundations that’ll break your drill bits and solid block walls above grade. Hurricane and bomb proof structures that will outlast any of the new homes being built today.

#179 Bargains everywhere on 03.12.13 at 7:30 pm

# 147 Daisy Mae

As a matter of fact, the lioness’ do the hunting. The entire pride will work together. The lion will step in, if needed. And he is always the first to dine.

*******
Yes, that may be sometimes but I was in South Africa last year at Kruger National Park and watched 2 males (brothers) as they stalked and attacked a water buffalo herd. The females with their cubs were miles away.

#180 Ralph Cramdown Ⓤ on 03.12.13 at 7:36 pm

#177 DL — “Again, many,many realtors are number experts (accountants without the credentials) but because you have dealt with the bottom end of the Bell curve you slander all realtors.”

LIBEL, not slander.

Here’s what I know: Many, many realtors can’t spell and can’t be bothered to hire a proofreader or even install a web browser that would flag some of their mistakes. Many, many realtors can’t take photographs, can’t take good ones or can’t take more than one. They’re not good at measuring things, filling out forms, or doing other things that are part of the job. The barriers to entry are too low and the requirements for remaining licensed are minimal, thus of every board’s membership, 60% are incompetent and the next 15% are marginally competent. Every competent realtor knows this, but their boards and SROs do nothing to weed out the chaff, nor do they even publish information that would allow the public to make an informed decision. “Ask your friends and relatives for recommendations” they say, which basically makes it a popularity contest. Don’t blame us for the shortcomings of your self regulated ‘profession.’ If you allow over half your members to remain members while incompetent, don’t slam the public for assuming on a prima facie basis that any given one of you is incompetent.

N.B. There’s no damn way your membership’s competence is normally (i.e. ‘Bell Curve’) distributed. Find me one of your cadre who’s a statistician without the credentials, and we can debate whether Poisson’s or Zipf’s might be the more accurate distribution. That is all.

#181 macduff on 03.12.13 at 7:47 pm

I think that next to financial illiteracy, grammatical illiteracy is not far behind. People:
your: possessive pronoun as in your iPod
you are: noun and verb, as in Garth you are absolutely right

#182 KinKalgary on 03.12.13 at 7:49 pm

as we have seen in the recent large gains in prices with the US recovery..
OBAMACARE will take care of that..easily.

Wifes boss (30 years in biz) stated that the layoffs are becoming crazy..she works for a Canadian/US placing company. Many are claiming they will be losing their homes..AGAIN..Don’t believe the propaganda that the media spews..sumbuddy gonna get hurt..real bad

Isn’t this time different :)

#183 dangeresque2 on 03.12.13 at 7:51 pm

#142 Oakvillain – too funny!

#184 Herb on 03.12.13 at 7:57 pm

Newsflash for Smoking Man –

You’re “the greatest” only in your own mind. But that’s enough for you.

#185 eddy on 03.12.13 at 8:01 pm

The term builder’s ‘spec house’ is not really fair. A speculator buys, holds and sells at a profit. The only thing a speculator creates is inflation at everyone else’s cost. A builder actually creates something. The fact that he’s not doing it for a specific client does not make him a speculator. If he is, all manufacturing is speculation, including bread.

#186 Herb on 03.12.13 at 8:02 pm

#177 DL,

pity you’re new here. You missed all the fun we had with realtors, a.k.a. as “realturds” and “realwhores” to blog dogs. If you’d care to go back through the archives for a year or so, you’ll discover why such terms of endearment were applied.

#187 Daisy Mae on 03.12.13 at 8:06 pm

#163 Ronaldo: “Perfect statement as you look around at all the people walking around like zombies plugged into their IPhones, Ipods, or whatever, unaware of what is going on around them. What a world this is turning into.”

********************

These electronics are wonderful. But there’s a time and place for everything. I wonder, too, as I watch the ‘zombies’ missing life happening around them.

#188 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.12.13 at 8:15 pm

@ #185 eddy on 03.12.13 at 8:01 pm
The term builder’s ‘spec house’ is not really fair. A speculator buys, holds and sells at a profit…
__________________________
I’m pretty sure that “spec” means “specification”… i.e. a house built from plans. Although, “spec house” and “speculation house” often go hand in hand.

#189 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.12.13 at 8:18 pm

@ #30 Realistic realtor GTA / #44

There were 12 offers on that little detached in north Toronto asking $899k. Sold for somewhere over $1m. I’m sure we will know tomorrow the final price. I don’t get it anymore. Why are people paying these prices.
____________________________

I’m calling HAM on that one… someone with realtor.ca access will need to confirm, once the sale happens.

Well – the SOLD sign went up today… someone will need to fill us all in on the final sale price for this completely average 3-bdrm home in Lawrence Park.

My guess is $1.15M ($250k over ask), and HAM buyer.

#190 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.12.13 at 8:20 pm

(MLS # C2571480)
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=12896063&PidKey=-443661508

#191 Daisy Mae on 03.12.13 at 8:22 pm

#176live within your means
#147 Daisy Mae
#133 Bargains: “Yes, brothers. They are more successful hunting in pairs.”

*******************

As a matter of fact, the lioness’ do the hunting. The entire pride will work together. The lion will step in, if needed. And he is always the first to dine.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

So very true. I love watching nature programs, tho some of them are ‘rigged’.

************************

I watch NatGeo Wild. I love all animals…and am especially intrigued with the big cats.

#192 Shawn Allen on 03.12.13 at 8:26 pm

eddy at 185 said:

The only thing a speculator creates is inflation at everyone else’s cost.

*****************************************

eddie, I think your talents are wasted here. Try Cuba or Stalinist Russia.

How consenting adults choose to risk their money is their business.

Call it Speculation and it’s bad. Call it venture capital and it’s good. Both are mushy thinking.

Who cares what anyone thinks except the free market?

P.S. Greed is (very) good too.

Why bite the hand of capitalism that feeds us so abundantly. (Belch!).

#193 Daisy Mae on 03.12.13 at 8:28 pm

My daughter and family will soon move to Kenya. So this subject — African animals — is near and dear to my heart.

#194 Old Man on 03.12.13 at 8:49 pm

#155 Doug in London – well you too have to be careful, but know you are not a married man, so do tell who that knockout young lady you was with last week at the Wortley Roadhouse? Yep, all men will say that was my daughter.

#195 StocksRHot2013 on 03.12.13 at 8:50 pm

The realtard has a seriously good “punch me face” lol….

http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2013/03/12/junction_triangle_fixerupper_attracts_40_offers_and_sells_for_almost_200000_over_asking.html

#196 Smoking Man on 03.12.13 at 9:01 pm

#184 Herb on 03.12.13 at 7:57 pm
Newsflash for Smoking Man -You’re “the greatest” only in your own mind. But that’s enough for you.

Herb I wouldn’t expect some one from your bi gone ara to understand.
Did you miss my piece on self esteem, go to my Blog once pasted the art work story will be there..

Your generation, industrial generation, worker slaves, naturaly you will resent anyone exhibiting a huge ego, less of course it was your master signing your check, for him you drop to your knees….

My point is you can’t become the check writer unless you have a huge ego. Your resentment toward my ego means you where owned your whole life. I’m sorry you never became an alpha.

#197 Helga on 03.12.13 at 10:06 pm

I agree with #157 but I do like Beach Girl.

#198 Mr Buyer on 03.13.13 at 12:09 am

#96 Grady Good God on 03.12.13 at 9:38 am
#45: Mr. Buyer, aren’t you embellishing just a *tad* much? I mean, c’mon… If I hear one more damn Canadian claim how he or she *almost* got mugged or shot in the US, I’m going to puke
………………………………………………………
No embellishment. Hammered beyond belief on JD in Margarita-ville and two guys took me for a little dance by a dumpster. I had $4 and maybe 8 cigarettes left in the pack, they were taken in exchange for a nice shiner in the morning. I was working under the table painting a local hotel so I just made my way back to the youth hostel and did not get so plastered anymore (they prey on the weak you see). In my defense my knuckles were cut to shreds but I can not honestly say if that was from fighting or crawling on my hands and knees. The gun thing was much less threatening to be sure but it too involved alcohol and hammered good old boys…Needless to say my giving up drinking over 20 years ago is likely a huge contributor to me being able to type this drivel presently. There are far more of these situations in America than Canada, mind you this is only from my cretinous street level creaturing view to be sure but I did not ever have to go to far to find serious trouble in the US. Sorry.

#199 m on 03.13.13 at 1:27 am

Smoking Man,
What have you got against Harvard anyway? Have you been there?

#200 live within your means on 03.13.13 at 6:12 am

“Until one has loved an animal, a part of one’s soul remains unawakened.” Anatole France

#201 live within your means on 03.13.13 at 6:14 am

#193 Daisy Mae on 03.12.13 at 8:28 pm
My daughter and family will soon move to Kenya. So this subject — African animals — is near and dear to my heart.
…………………..

Hope you get to visit them.

#202 Wes Mantooth on 03.13.13 at 9:53 am

#134

Dorothy Mantooth is a saint!

Actually.. I am not kidding… I am just thinking about the conditions that would be necessary to justify interest rates going higher… rates are only going higher if the economy is doing well… Bank of Canada isnt driving interest rates higher when the economy is struggling…

Inflation is the argument that could necessitate higher interest rates against a slowing economy… I just dont see how that comes about… if we get inflation in my opinion Canada is set up well to protect itself…

#203 Their Children Have Left Vancouver – “One of the rarely discussed consequences of the huge RE price inflation in Vancouver has been the separation of the extended family.” | Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive on 03.14.13 at 9:32 am

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