Gen Hex

boomer 2

Eighteen years ago I wrote a breathless little book about Boomers and how the showdown moments would come in 2015. Because I’m so easy and enjoyable to ignore, everyone blanked out my warning, despite the book selling vast numbers.

My thesis was simple. By two years from now our built-in demographic time bomb would cause real estate values to crumble and financial markets to rise. So far, I’m right on track. Some things, like hormones and senators, are so easy to predict.

This year, as I’ve recently mentioned, two big deals happen. 2013 marks the first time half a million people will turn 60 – an event which will be repeated for seven more years. And it’s a milestone because the number of wrinklies (>55) exceeds the number of kids (<24). So, after 2013, expect nothing to stay the same.

Hell, it’s already happening. The latest numbers are shocking.

A big poll (3,000 people aged 30 to 65) has just found the number of Canadians thinking they can retire at 66 is 27%. Five years ago it was 51%. Almost 75% of people now say they’ll have to work full or part-time until they drop, and 15% aren’t sure. “That’s really something to reflect on. You have three-quarters of the population thinking about the very real possibility of working past what we’ve always through was the traditional retirement age,” says the president of the company doing the asking (Sun Life).

And while these guys have a vested interest in scaring the poop out of folks, then managing their money, facts are facts. Most people in the Boomer cohort are as screwed in 2013 as I thought they’d be back in 1995. Over the years net worth has been concentrated in residential real estate, augmenting risk.

Ironically these people thought they were avoiding risk, after being blown up by Nortel, the dot-coms, the 2008 GFC, followed by the collapse in interest rates. They dramatically reduced RRSP contributions, squandered their TFSAs in savings accounts or bonds, fled equity markets, and systematically lost money by sticking billions in the orange guy’s shorts. Many just kept clawing up the property ladder to the point where a third will retire with both a mortgage and protective underwear.

This is all unprecedented. Old people with jobs, home loans, scant savings, rare pensions and money troubles. It’s almost like we’re vaulting back in time to the 1940s, but with iPhones and Viagra. Weren’t all these Boomers born into an era of unbridled economic expansion, prosperity, growth, inflation and opportunity? Sixty years later, how can so many be so unprepared? Did they believe that forever young stuff?

Obviously. And this brings us to what happens next.

Unlike what many house-pumpers on this site believe, millions of these wrinklies will have no choice but to sell their homes, downsize, cash out, rent or move in with their kids. The deceleration in the housing market will be palpable – the opposite effect to that which Boomers had on real estate in the Seventies and Eighties. This should be self-evident to everyone, and now’s the time to prepare. Near-retirees who refuse to cash out in the next year or two will pay a heavy price, as will the thirtysomethings who buy too early, or have made the identical error – putting all their net worth in one uncertain asset.

Conversely, those people who understand that financial assets will likely thrive, and embrace balance, diversity and liquidity, stand to profit. This includes everything I’ve suggested – a balance between growth and safe securities, the right mix based on geography or sector, no individual stocks, no mutual funds, and lots of tax avoidance.

By the way, the Sun Life survey found a third of people now understand they’ll outlive their money (actually, it will end up being about two-thirds), and think having $385,000 in retirement savings is the goal (multiply that by three). The average retirement lasts 18 years. The average nestegg runs out after 11 years. Half of all people in their fifties have saved less than $100,000, and the average RRSP contribution is just $2,800. But 70% of people own houses.

I could go on, but I’d rather not. If you don’t see the problem, you’re in it.

This week, just before the RRSP deadline, I’ll review a few moves you should know about. Don’t tell your realtor.

272 comments ↓

#1 broadway skytrain on 02.24.13 at 6:22 pm

leafs playoffs – now that is funny!

#2 OwlEyes on 02.24.13 at 6:26 pm

What’s the title of the 1995 book Garth?
Phyurrrrsfsfsttt!

#3 Randy on 02.24.13 at 6:30 pm

Great two-turds will now outlive their money…dats grate boii

#4 Vandamnncouver on 02.24.13 at 6:31 pm

Garth since I am one of the first posts today I just want to personally thank you for how much I appreciate your blog.

I am new in the world of financial services, and you are an amazing resource for me. I want to do good unto people and your message is one of protecting people from an essentially unregulated investment industry (real estate).

So keep up the great work, and know there’s plenty of people like me who sincerely appreciate what you do!

#5 Steve French on 02.24.13 at 6:34 pm

PPPPPPPPHHHHHUUUURRRRSSSTTT!!!!!

Yessssssssss………

#6 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.24.13 at 6:35 pm

Gordon Pape and his reverse mortgages are ready to sucker in a few thousand more Canadians each year.

#7 Musty Basement Dweller Wannabe on 02.24.13 at 6:36 pm

Had a bunch of Real Estate agents looking at my house for sale today. Unfortunately not a lot of other traffic. I think a mortgage broker came by too. Guess these guys don’t have much to do these days, which is kinda scary. I told my agent that as a boomer I could give him some survival tips such as cat food and snaring squirrels with brass wire. He seemed to be thinking about it a bit.

#8 Smoking Man on 02.24.13 at 6:37 pm

I retired at 47 ,went back to slavery 3 years later cause I was board. I work on Bay Street in the heart of the action, I even get verbally abused from time to time……

I love it…. But depending on how things unfold over the next few week might need to retire again.

All you dogs just care about money, far more important things than that.

If making money is looked at more than just sport, a hobby, a thing to pass time, making deals, buying and selling, you will never make alot of it…

Trade time for wages, your doomed……

#9 me on 02.24.13 at 6:38 pm

the poor horse

#10 Bailing in BC on 02.24.13 at 6:45 pm

Crazy early

First.

#11 eddy on 02.24.13 at 6:47 pm

Suggestions for where to buy ETFs? Is iShares the best Canadian option?

#12 vancouverite on 02.24.13 at 6:49 pm

Garth,

Nice write up about demographics and the aging boomers.

I recall about 10 – 15 years ago reading numerous articles warning about the shortage of workers due to all the retirements due to hit our workforce around now.

In my workplace, there were 4 office parties for people who turned 60 recently and they aren’t going to retire anytime soon. Also, a few retirees have come back to work (some part time) after realizing that they couldn’t go on vacation all the time with their pension chqs and having to draw on their savings.

#13 robert james on 02.24.13 at 6:53 pm

Here in the Okanagan people were told by their idiot realtards to buy the biggest most expensive house they can afford because that will be their retirement plan.. Three people that I know very well were told this…And of course everyone is told the Okanagan is a ” special niche market ” and everyone wants to live here so the market will never crash.. This place is “ground Zero for real estate stupid”..lol

#14 Fort Mac Flatlander on 02.24.13 at 6:53 pm

A good early aftenoon to all:

What if any affect do you think the burgeoning currency and possible trade war will have on the North American markets? No tin foil hatter here, but why wouldn’t a continued stimulus plan simply be a hidden tax by causing artificial dividend surplusses and increased capital gains (vs. inflation)?

Thanks

Because it isn’t. As economic growth rekindles, stimulus will be withdrawn. — Garth

#15 Dog Walker on 02.24.13 at 6:53 pm

Boom! (ers) Won’t the boomers start liquidating stocks as well as housing?

Most don’t have stocks. Those who do understand the need for income. — Garth

#16 Victoria Tea Party on 02.24.13 at 6:55 pm

I SPY…

If you can’t get the truth out of central bankers, politicians and others of the “elite” gatekeepers cohort(hiders of the facts) of our besotted planet, then check out the organization which can: The US Central Intelligence Agency.

The following is available on their Website. But here are a few nuggets as “published” on Zero Hedge Sunday:

“The CIA (economic) data for 2012 is a mixed bag. There is no crisis at the moment, but there are troubling signs:

– Unemployment is dangerously high, social problems will be the result.

-Global growth is occurring as a result of ever higher debt loads, and a rapidly expanding money supply. Total debt is rising much faster than economic output. Every year we get more leveraged. The “efficiency” of debt is waning.

-Inflation is not a big issue today, but there is every reason to believe that this can’t be sustained.”

There is much more and it is worth reading, especially the jobless stats (shocking). Where does this info go? Who reads this stuff? And what happens after?

We’ll find out.

Sir Garth of Economic Dross continues to be chillingly accurate about the unfolding demographic disaster impelled by an ageing populace.

This will not be fun as ramifications and unintended consequences will be felt far and wide, somewhat akin to a continuous set of earthquakes of various magnitudes.

Sure the stock market is the last safe bet for capital gains amongst the “investor class”, such that it is, BUT with crumbling economic fundamentals showing up in our trading partners, will the day come that those stocks will either collapse or consolidate, and continue their southward journeys, if fewer and fewer customers show up at the online shops because they’re so busted and broke?

That is why gold and silver coins continue to be very good and very long term hedges against economic disaster as history never ceases to point out. Wild-meat recipies also have a niche in there somewhere. Vancouver Island Marmot, anyone?

Meanwhile, the wrinklies and their dissembling gluey-boarded suburban, moss-covered, shacks indeed.

Indeed.

#17 Raj on 02.24.13 at 6:56 pm

Garth,

What is your opinion on life insurance? I am 30 and about to start a family. Does putting $400 a month into a million dollar policy make any sense? I make decent income and saving about half my pay cheque.

No. — Garth

#18 mortgagebrokeron on 02.24.13 at 6:57 pm

Garth, I appreciate your pathetic little blog. Your writings are what I heard years ago regarding the future of real estate in Canada. The book the Pig and the Python, and boom bust echo were great reads…

Are we heading to a Japanese style market in real estate? that was one of the arguments of demographics affecting the market?

I would be interested in seeing a graph showing the cohort of japan and real estate , vs the cohort of canada and real estate

#19 TurnerNation on 02.24.13 at 6:57 pm

18 years ago I was drinking my first (legal) beer.

Looks like we have our home-grown Harry Dent here.

Bust, Boom, and Bust.
Honey, I shrunk the Portfolio.

#20 mortgagebrokeron on 02.24.13 at 6:58 pm

http://www.google.ca/imgres?imgurl=http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/japan-house-prices–nov08.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8080.html&h=444&w=744&sz=21&tbnid=PxfBSR7_CmbrxM:&tbnh=72&tbnw=121&zoom=1&usg=__4jvXoSbhGW71J4W2oB3kjfYNYYw=&docid=4-1HlOKgJWZivM&sa=X&ei=6ZoqUbG6KtSMrQGSl4DQCA&ved=0CEoQ9QEwAw&dur=2549

#21 Smoking Man on 02.24.13 at 7:00 pm

Dogs, lots of whole sale Web site’s, alibaba.com…. Stuff from China, why would any married young couple not have one of you quit a slave job, import stuff and make a zillion or too.

I did it in my 30s but I’m a gambler, I did it with nothing to fall back on, my perfect, fantastic wife was home with the kids…

None of you are trained to think like this… Go to school, and get good marks, just obey and comply and there will be a good job waiting for you.

Bahaha NOT ANY MORE. now find something you like, learn how to sell from Google, and get down to business….

Don’t mfg shit, that went out the Window in the 90s.

A high quality fedora can be bought for. 50 put a logo on it, hey call it smoking Man hat and sell Em for 30 bucks….

Our time on here is short, life large, or drink, everything else sucks.

#22 Joe on 02.24.13 at 7:00 pm

What’s also interesting about this demographic change is that at some point, “wrinklies” will be able to outvote younger generations at all elections by pure numbers. This means that should there ever be a politician willing to cut wrinklies-benefits, there could always be enough wrinkly votes to effectively kill any such proposal from the start.

#23 salonist on 02.24.13 at 7:02 pm

retired and broke folks and, the end game is?

#24 robert james on 02.24.13 at 7:04 pm

Geezers and Gangsters living in harmony.. I think Kelowna might just be a tad bit over hyped and over-rated..JMHO of course.. lol http://www.theprovince.com/news/Gangsters+growth+turning+Kelowna+into+paradise+lost/8005211/story.html

#25 Mouldy in Nanaimo on 02.24.13 at 7:05 pm

This blog is the best entertainment going. I am going to cancel my tv. And icing on the cake for example I can’t wait to see what dr. Wayne says about the “first” posters today. Those poor unsuspecting posters are about to get hammered.

#26 jwkimba on 02.24.13 at 7:08 pm

last weekend I mentioned we went to an open house for 500k semi smaller than out $1500/mo house rental. Certain it would sell in a fierce bidding war (this is _________ (fill in the blank, any neighborhood in To.O) after all)….drove home today and there was ANOTHER open house for the same place. I have never seen that before. What is going on? It s only 500k!? Get it now or be a loser renter forever…

#27 Smoking Man on 02.24.13 at 7:13 pm

Here at senica, loading up my favorite chic with loot, 30 years on may 21,it’s what she loves to do…….

It’s dumb, house always wins, why have I taken her cap off, her spending limit, Cause it’s the right thing to do……

She’s been perfect for me her whole short life….. And she deserves too have as much fun and do what she likes going forward.

Guilt on my part I guess…..

#28 Gunboat denier on 02.24.13 at 7:17 pm

17 Raj – you should be able to get a $1M 20 yr policy for
about $70/mo if you lead a healthy lifesyle.

http://www.presidentsgroup.com/

#29 Paul on 02.24.13 at 7:20 pm

#13 robert james on 02.24.13 at 6:53 pm

This was posted yesterday but it’s worth posting again I think.

http://www.theprovince.com/news/Gangsters+growth+turning+Kelowna+into+paradise+lost/8005211/story.html

#30 espressobob on 02.24.13 at 7:20 pm

There is always “squirrel stew” and “raccoon burgers” for the unprepared.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfe_EYZRwyU

#31 vancouverite on 02.24.13 at 7:24 pm

“How far should agents go to sell a house?”

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/02/23/how-far-should-agents-go-to-sell-a-house/?__lsa=2c2c-455f

David MacLean does not want word to leak out but he’s cleaned a few toilets as part of his job.

“I’ve had to do things like that,” says Mr. MacLean, who works for Real Estate Homeward brokerage in Toronto. “I’m not sure I want to be identified as the agent who cleans toilets.”

————————————-
It’s strange that a few years ago, I went to some open houses and the agents showing the homes did not care how the homes looked – there was always people at the showings if the asking prices close to similar listings in the area. Also, recall few arrogant agents saying no offers until tomorrow at 6:00pm and not taking any questions.

Last weekend, I went to an open house (price comparable to others in area – but still high in my opinion), I was the only one there and the agent took time to walk through house and answered all questions.

#32 Rental Lover on 02.24.13 at 7:25 pm

Hi Garth ,
I Own a multiplex in Central Toronto, what are your thoughts on future vacancies and appreciation given the Condo meltdown and declining real estate values? Your thoughts would be appreciated, should I sell or hang on for retirement income and keep it?( It has tripled in value in the last 11 years).

#33 Grantmi on 02.24.13 at 7:31 pm

I have to share first hand info. from the outskirts of Vancouver. NO MSM or Real estate firm BS!!!

I live close to the USA/Canada Peace Arch border crossing.. and there is more NEW homes up for sale that you can shake a stick at.. that are just sitting there month, after month, after month with no action or SOLD signs on them.

The other observation.. is this, and this is not meant in any way as being racist!! There is only one ethnic group of builders that are building in the area. The tradition White Collar building companies are done gone! (I know.. because I walk the area almost 3 – 4 times a week)

These new immigrant builders are the only ones continuing to build out here. Now! I not sure if they know something the rest of the home building industry doesn’t. .. or they’re able to hire at much lower paid out wages then the rest of the market. But I wonder how they can continue to buy these expensive lots.. and continue to build, build, build… with nothing being purchased.

One structure they actually started to moth ball. Seems they did the one main complex.. and pour the foundation for phase two… and they have stopped!!

Something has to give!!

http://i49.tinypic.com/346w7sk.jpg

http://i45.tinypic.com/34gliyp.jpg

http://i49.tinypic.com/jqt1kh.jpg

#34 Old Wrinkley on 02.24.13 at 7:34 pm

Hi Garth,
As an old wrinkley I find your posts to be extremely amusing while being right on point. I shudder to think what tax rates will have to be to even try to support the
overly generous entitlements most Canadian residents feel they should receive just because they live in Canada.
Fortunately as an engineer I am not mathematically challenged and decided at age 31 that I had best prepare to be able to support my wife and my self at retirement as the govt. retirement plans seemed doomed to be totally inadequate in the long run.
I do not particularly agree with you investment advice
and find that as an individual investor you can do as well or better than the follow the market results obtained with ” managed investments” PROVIDED you are prepared to do the work required to make good decisions on what to invest in. Yes, a lot of work is required but the results are excellent. Keep emotion out of it !!!! use facts.
More later???

#35 Mister Obvious on 02.24.13 at 7:40 pm

In the last few years I’ve taken the message of this blog and books by Garth and others to heart.

I have long sensed what was coming down the track but like many of my generation I didn’t want to think about such unpalatable things too much.

I can say that I am quite prepared for the enormous economic sea change that is now undoubtedly upon Canadians whether or not they are yet aware.

But rather than feeling smug and superior, I feel an uneasiness about the future. Regardless of financial security and reasonable health, I must still share a society filled with growing social problems and deep insecurity.

Its the inevitable result when the triangle of the age distribution graph tries hopelessly to swallow the huge rectangle pushing its way up. It doesn’t sound like Canada will be a nicer place than we’ve been used to and I don’t see how it really can be.

I’m a rather early retiree and I already sense some subtle pangs of resentment among those who will need to work well beyond traditional retirement age while I fill my time commenting on blogs and doing basically whatever I please.

It wont be a happy ending for much of the post WWII generation and I don’t expect much sympathy pouring forth from subsequent generations. Not that it was our fault. Nor is it theirs. But its here nonetheless.

Simply stated, I feel its going to get a lot meaner.

#36 John on 02.24.13 at 7:41 pm

I thought it is time to update you with my latest Kijiji GTA Condo Offers Index. Methodology: click on http://toronto.kijiji.ca/f-real-estate-condos-for-sale-W0QQCatIdZ643 on write down the number of offers.

August 2012 – 5100 offers
November 2012 – 6000 offers http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/11/01/fearless/#comment-204602
February 2013 – 7250 offers

#37 smartalox on 02.24.13 at 7:42 pm

My financial advisor mentioned that all the books about the ageing of the boomers were written 15 years too early. What is the title of the book that you wrote, Garth? Perhaps it’s time for a new edition, revised to sharpen focus and possibly account for social changes that were not envisioned 18 years ago?

My folks are actually about 15 years ahead of the boomers, and have been a great object-lesson on what to expect when parents outlive their money. What seemed like a downturn-related job loss 15 years ago morphed into “early retirement”, forced downsizing, and more recently, panicked calls for emergency bailouts from us kids (twice now). At 75 and 80, they tried to make extra money by looking for retail jobs at the mall, but who wants to buy a trendy new look from someone older than their mom?

Thankfully, they retain sufficient health to live independently, and can still take care of each other without much more than they get from CPP, OAS and GIS. I don’t know what us kids will do when that changes, and they begin to need full-time care.

#38 Saskatoon-Living on 02.24.13 at 7:47 pm

SK is not that different after all:

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/business/Study+suggests+Sask+residents+saving+enough/7994414/story.html

#39 Mocha on 02.24.13 at 7:48 pm

Oh, I get it… Because the Leafs never make the playoffs… Lol.

#40 Randy on 02.24.13 at 7:48 pm

Is Harry Dent right about the stock market….or just a broken clock in 2013 ??

We’re getting a bubble and crash every four or five years.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/harry-dent-predicts-market-crash-in-q3-2013-1#ixzz2LrbFpG00

http://www.businessinsider.com/harry-dent-predicts-market-crash-in-q3-2013-1

#41 juno on 02.24.13 at 7:51 pm

In the next few months 7 people in our department will be forced to retire.

5 of these oldies have mortgages still. 2 have already placed their house on the market.

When you no longer have income, and the kids are out of the house, what choice do you really have.

So for those who says people will stay in the house until hell breaks loose, might look at it differently when you actually calculate and do a feasibility study.

Just remember Canadian has won the housing lottery in the Real Estate Casino. Either you stay in the game and risk losing it all or you cash out and celebrate your winnings, cause thats probably enough to keep you living large til the end of days.

#42 Formerly House Horny Wife's Husband on 02.24.13 at 7:53 pm

Hi GT,

Just got my Year End statement for all those pref shares you’ve been touting. We dumped our place and are renting a huge house and living for free and still socking $$ away. A couple of months ago my house-horny wife started asking where all this money was coming from in our investment accounts.

My wife gets it now that she sees it in black and white (and in the bank account). House Horny no more. Now she’s Pref Horny!

#43 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 02.24.13 at 7:54 pm

Ok……paging Dr Wayne paging Dr Wayne….

Posts # 2 and #5…..etc.

Your MK Ultra cue

#44 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 02.24.13 at 7:56 pm

#8 Smoking Man on 02.24.13 at 6:37 pm

I retired at 47 ,

===================================

Your IQ got the high?

Congrats !!!!!

#45 Smoking Man on 02.24.13 at 7:57 pm

I have mocked God my entire life, challenge the bugger to take me, on the lake in nasty thunderstorms, king post snapping on my ultralight aircraft, drink and smoke like a mad man…. Yet he won’t touch me.. He takes kids, and loved ones..

God know this, it’s time for you think, you do what I think your planning, when it’s eventually my turn. I’m TAKING YOU SEAT….. And giving you a one way ticket down to your nemissis….

Don’t bet against a Smoking Man, and don’t fk with one…

#46 Randy on 02.24.13 at 7:58 pm

The Pig and Python…was kinda wrong….

the real estate market will also remain flat for this period, because boomers have by and large already acquired the real estate they will need in their lives – aside from some bright niche markets, like retirement condominiums situated in attractive areas close to lots of amenities, real estate will not be a particularly attractive investment – boomers who are looking to unload their paid-off houses as a financial windfall in their old age are thus likely to be disappointed

……forgot to provide a start date…..haha

#47 'NAKED APE' on 02.24.13 at 8:00 pm

Hey all you Blog Dogs…

My name is Mike Duffee and I do know how to figure out those nasty forms. Just got caught for pretending that I didn’t. I admit that when it comes to feeding at the trough, I am an expert. Head down and inhale. Consider me FUUUUURSTTTTT.

And you can TAKE THAT to the bank Dr. Wanker!

#48 John on 02.24.13 at 8:05 pm

You posted early tonight….off to watch the Oscars?

#49 Ann on 02.24.13 at 8:06 pm

Just wondering, been reading this blog for awhile now can somebody please post a on how great things are and what a wonderful country Canada is to live in. The doom and gloom is killing me. Trying to lol

#50 Mean Gene on 02.24.13 at 8:09 pm

I enjoyed the video, however I saw some things… at the beginning of the video blue diamonds (Viagra) and the stained glass windows looked like big oxygen cylinders??

WTH, is it some kind of Boomer dream sequence??

#51 Smoking Man on 02.24.13 at 8:11 pm

Those who dance are considered Insane by those who can’t hear the tunes

When you feel like you fit in, it’s time to tell them where to go..

The road to knowlage, is paved with distraction and billboards

The obvious is in front of you…. Yet no one can see it..

Shit faced good night all……

#52 Smoking Man's Old Man on 02.24.13 at 8:19 pm

People are so identified by their careers that maybe it’s not such a bad/ sad predicament. Look at ” Smoking Man” for instance, retired at 47 and went back to work after three year hiatus. Self worth= Career. No one escapes the Machine.

#53 TurnerNation on 02.24.13 at 8:19 pm

Squeege Oldsters? Cluttering your intersection.

This is a good use for old pennies. That’s my 5 cents.

#54 Ogopogo on 02.24.13 at 8:19 pm

#23 robert james

There is a lot of truth in that exposé of Kelowna. In the relatively short time I’ve lived here I’ve witnessed enough criminal shenanigans to make your hair curl. The criminal element here operates with near-impunity while the lack of meaningful recreational activities for tween and teens make our children potential targets of biker gangs, traffickers and assorted bottom feeders.

The collapse of the real estate market in the Okanagan is actually bringing much-needed humility and self-searching to the region and Kelowna in particular. The old taken-for-granted motto — “Bring Sunglasses” — is now reduced to its more accurate abbreviation: BS!

Still, I love this place and want it to prosper, but not at the expense of impoverishing its middle class into indentured real estate servitude.

#55 Dr. WAYNE on 02.24.13 at 8:27 pm

By the way, the Sun Life survey found a third of people now understand they’ll outlive their money (actually, it will end up being about two-thirds) … Garth

=======================

This introduction to the paragraph scared the sh++ out of me. I quickly saw my fabulous guitar collection, I waited 50 years to accumulate, hanging in some pawn shop, as I shuffle off, in tattered clothes with a rope holding up my pants, to the market to buy some bread and sardines (now my staples). God … will it be this bad … even when I spend my days sitting in front of the local liquor store on Vancouver Island playing my 12 string and ‘begging’ vociferously (between songs) for spare change?

Fortunately, I’m well out of my fifties and closer to meeting that character with the scythe than those the venerable one speaks of. Whew !!!!! … I squeaked by the poverty marker. There just may be some capital left over after my will is read for my kids … probably about enough to buy a can of sardines.

#56 AK on 02.24.13 at 8:27 pm

#5 Steve French on 02.24.13 at 6:34 pm

“PPPPPPPPHHHHHUUUURRRRSSSTTT!!!!!

Yessssssssss………”
————————————————————–

Man, you got so excited, you slobbered all over yourself.

And you still ended up 5th. Loser…

#57 Non- Smoking Man on 02.24.13 at 8:28 pm

Garth , do you think the government encourages oil companies to increase prices to increase inflation rate. Why else would gas prices in Vancouver be in the $ 1. 40 per litre range today.

#58 MAC Marketing on 02.24.13 at 8:34 pm

Yeah…

We Real Estate profush-anals can help the Okanagan

We will have an ad with the Sasquatch and Ogopogo to lure HAM $$$$’s

#59 Freedom First on 02.24.13 at 8:34 pm

Garth, the figures you give on the financial state of the wrinklies, as well as the younger generations delusional financial antics are extremely revealing, and all true, as you even regularly post the links to prove it is.

I commend you Garth, knowing what you know about what is happening today, and knowing how bad it is going to be for so many wrinklies in the years to come(many of them a lot sooner than they realize), that you pass on this information with such patience, tact, and kindness.

I say this being aware of the unrest of the financially destroyed millions of the U.S., Japan, Spain, Italy, Greece, and others, where massive riots are becoming common occurrences. These are not quiet demonstrations, but violent riots of physical confrontations, with people on both sides being injured and some even killed. Wrinklies who think they can pick their retirement age with certainty, or younger people who don’t plan on the possibility of interrupted employment at any time, are both delusional and foolish, and have no foresight in planning for all possible eventualities. I am not talking about living your life in fear. Awareness, knowledge, open mindedness, planning, and action, simply means you will be living a life free of fear. Sorry, simply put, ignorance is not bliss. Ignorance is fatal.

#60 neo on 02.24.13 at 8:39 pm

Because it isn’t. As economic growth rekindles, stimulus will be withdrawn. — Garth

When do you think the U.S. will get back to the pre “crisis” level of deficits which ranged from $200-400 billion not the $1 to $1.5 trillion the past 5 years and counting? With almost 100 million Americans and rising on government monetary assistance of some kind we will never see $200-400 million again. Oh and the 2 year bond which was above 4% in 2007 not the 0.2% it is now.

#61 Sherwood Park on 02.24.13 at 8:45 pm

BBC documentary on the development of our desires culture.

http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/the-century-of-the-self/

#62 scarberia troll on 02.24.13 at 8:45 pm

Sure they are smoking wet pot in skar beria. 580K for this bungallow?

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12865945&PidKey=-25346949

sure they don’t have internet connection

#63 Mark W on 02.24.13 at 8:45 pm

http://www.news1130.com/2013/02/24/vancouver-could-see-an-increase-in-laneway-housing/

Living in the alleyway, I mean laneway, in Vancouver has a whole new meaning.

#64 Dr. WAYNE on 02.24.13 at 8:46 pm

#2 OwlEyes on 02.24.13 at 6:26 pm

What’s the title of the 1995 book Garth?
Phyurrrrsfsfsttt!

=========================

You’ve intentionally mixed up two very important topics with your statements. The introductory question is a reflection of your interest in important topics covered by the venerable one … this strikes a cord of ‘some’ intelligence. However, your next presentation of one of the most despised word on this blog (even though you murdered its formation) makes a very real, forceful, and unmistakable assertion that you are a veritable a$$hole for doing such a misdeed to this blog. This being the case, any gains in intelligence you made with your opening foray, quickly disintegrates and you are now join the ranks of a bag of hammers.

#65 Mic D'angelo on 02.24.13 at 8:50 pm

Raj #17 The best thing to do is buy $1,000,000 term life insurance policy to protect your family. I don’t know if you heard this but buy term and invest the difference. Gunboat denier said $70 a month is the cost for a 20 year term if your healthy.

I’m not sure on the current pricing of premiums of life insurance companies. I would shop around with a insurance broker. There are at least 25-50 insurance companies in Canada. Also, life insurance companies are protected by ASSURIS which covers $200,000 or 85% of the death benefit whichever is higher per life insurance company. You can sell all the information at http://www.assuris.ca.

The $330 difference left over can be invested so many ways as you can read on this blog. My opinion is take the $3960 per year and buy TFSA’s,RRSP’s depending on your family’s income and situation. I am not going to tell you about an investment or mix of investments that are going to get you 6%,7%,8%,9% etc no matter what. I am a straight up guy.

Here is an example, $3960.00 invested per year in TFSA’s provincial strips 20 years at 3.87% yield will get you a TFSA balance of $116,343.23 in 2033. Everyone else says you can get 7% with a mix of different investments. The $3,960 invested like this in TFSA’s 20 years at 7.00% will be $162,342.15 in 2033.Remember risk is not a free lunch.It can set you back years on your retirement,financial goals.

All my life I tried to avoid long term costly risks. I bought a house 35% cheaper than I could afford to have a financial cushion in case something went wrong.
I buy investments that I know pay interest and have a fixed future maturity value so I can plan about what my lifestyle I can afford. I am a conservative investor and person. I have at least 1.5 to 2 years of living expenses in short term liquid investments that don’t drop with any type of markets(STOCK,BOND MARKET).

Any bonds I buy never maturity in the same year all spread out and staggered to provide liquidity and possible reinvestment at higher interest rates,bond yields. I lost my 3 jobs in 38 years of my working life. The last job I took a 16% pay. The main point I am trying to say is being conservative,cautious is not a bad thing. I and my wife are in a good financial situation because we saved,invested and most importantly did not believe anyone until we checked it out for ourselves.

I know it can be daunting and confusing but it’s well worth to take your time and research everything you read and people tell you. You got to decide what you and your wife are comfortable with and if it’s the best decision ,financial or others for your family. Garth’s most recent blog does not agree with everything I say but who agrees with everyone and everything they say.Saving and getting a decent return on your money without trying take many risks to become rich quicker than is possible is what traps young couple’s today.

TFSA’s,RRSP’s,RESP’s, should be maxed out so money will compound faster than any other way.This is the best place to start.Good luck Raj.

#66 Dr. WAYNE on 02.24.13 at 8:50 pm

#5 Steve French on 02.24.13 at 6:34 pm

PPPPPPPPHHHHHUUUURRRRSSSTTT!!!!!

Yessssssssss………

======================

Such a thrust into the limelight of your own mind. Your achievement is exhilarating to ‘only’ you … to the rest of us … and I speak for quite a number of us … you are a conspicuous a$$hole in the company of those who will forever look down upon you. Feels good, doesn’t it.

#67 Mic D'angelo on 02.24.13 at 8:57 pm

Correction any bonds I buy never mature in the same year all spread out and staggered to provide liquidity and possible reinvestment at higher interest rates,bond yields. The last job I took a 16% pay cut.
TYPOS!

You just passed your best-before date. Go clip some coupons for a while. — Garth

#68 JuliaS on 02.24.13 at 8:58 pm

Boomers will be dumping not just houses. They’ll be the net sellers of everything, including stocks and bonds. The idea of a balanced portfolio – that is, of money generating money, will vanish. Either you’ll work and provide for yourself, or you’ll do neither.

The current generation of youngsters are not going to put up with expectations. They’re already getting their daily kick living in basements, working low wage jobs and playing computer games all day. Those that were supposed to be enslaved to deliver on promises given to the retirees are either unwilling, unqualified, or both.

Who’s gonna clean up the dirty boomer diapers? No one. Who’s going to drive up stocks, bonds, housing? No one.

Either you have the ability to work and lucky to have work, or you ain’t got nothing.

People with liquid assets are not the same as people trapped in a real estate mentality. Liquid assets produce income. Houses produce costs. There is no reason to believe financial markets will be diminished by people liquidating portfolios and I am sure you will agree if you actually think about it. — Garth

#69 phinny on 02.24.13 at 9:02 pm

Here’s a pretty interesting story- the Chinese media blowing the whistle on stories that Canadian media (CBC, CTV) take at face value.

http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1155758/bogus-buyers-exposed-scam-boost-property-market-vancouver

So, let’s get this straight- the Chinese Media blowing the whistle on the Canadian media.

#70 Medic on 02.24.13 at 9:03 pm

“2015 – After the Boom” is the title of the book Garth refers to. I still have it, actually. Read it on a plane years ago. I recommend it.

#71 AK on 02.24.13 at 9:05 pm

#40 Randy on 02.24.13 at 7:48 pm

“Is Harry Dent right about the stock market….or just a broken clock in 2013 ?? ”

——————————————————————
Just another Loud Tout.

#72 Mark W on 02.24.13 at 9:06 pm

With the Kevorkian retirement savings plan you are guaranteed never to outlive your money.

#73 Raj on 02.24.13 at 9:07 pm

I attended real estate session yesterday along with some wrinkles. Salesman was one of the agent who sold 700 condos in one week in Aura building downtown toronto here are the highlights
1) its okay to buy condo in downtown toronto since over 100kmoving to gta
2) having Starbuck in the building can appreciate value by 10%
3) don’t buy condo less then 400sq will not get financing
4) don’t buy without showing purchase agreement to lawyers
5) interest rate will not rise unfilled 2015
6)dont buy parking for 1 bedroom condominium
7) if u think interest rate will go up sell your condo and book the profit

I can go on and on. Surprisingly lot of people still wants to buy this great investment. There is no shortage of greaterfoll. Look for one and you will find many

Many found Mr. Lamb’s presentation vacuous and profane. I will address this in a day or two. — Garth

#74 jwkimba on 02.24.13 at 9:09 pm

@JOE #22. You’ve described the *current* situation, whic hsi ow we got into this mess in the first place. Every boomer costs us abot 1.2M in unfunded benefits to be paid for by ‘future taxpayers’

#75 Goldfinger on 02.24.13 at 9:09 pm

Smoking man needs help …..

#76 Goldfinger on 02.24.13 at 9:11 pm

#73 …. where are these 100k moving to Toronto from? Any proof of this ?

#77 Patient in Richmond on 02.24.13 at 9:11 pm

Went to an open house today , here in Richmond , stayed for about45 minutes , besides us, one couple quickly walked through and left .

Times sure have changed …

#78 Robbie on 02.24.13 at 9:12 pm

Kelowna used to be such a lovely little town. The busiest time of the day was noon when most of the working people headed home for the noon meal. Evenings spent on the lake or beaches…..and a ferry across the lake before the bridge was built. Wonderful place to visit but I never go there anymore as it has been turned into such an ugly city. Where there used to be orchards, there are characterless subdivisions. Where there used to be tree-lined streets there are fast food chains and lots of pavement. No need to wonder why I live on Salt Spring, not in Kelowna!

#79 Daisy Mae on 02.24.13 at 9:12 pm

“Eighteen years ago I wrote a breathless little book about Boomers and how the showdown moments would come in 2015.”

***************************

Yes. It’s entitled: 2015 – AfTER THE BOOM. How to prosper through the coming RETIREMENT CRISIS.

#80 John on 02.24.13 at 9:13 pm

Garth,
I’ve been tracking 75K$-200K$ listings in downtown Toronto (C1 on MLS) for several years. The 75k parameter knocks out parking spots. Since the beginning of “the recovery” the search has hovered around 6-12 listings. This week it popped to 21.

#81 Anonymous on 02.24.13 at 9:14 pm

I am going to get drunk with a bunch of my 30-year old peers in a moldy basement suite tonight. I am sure the topic of how the baby boomers sold out our country and ruined our lives will come up.

#82 Axxman on 02.24.13 at 9:14 pm

My wife and I just sold our house to overly leveraged buyers who had to pay almost 12% on their mortgage from an unregulated lender because they were too high on the TDS/GDS scale and had a spotty credit history. We pocketed half a million upon sale. Currently renting around the corner from the old place for $2,500 month. We were looking at open houses today but after having researched what the places originally sold for (and having a battle of wits with one unarmed realtor) we realized the boomers weren’t asking us to buy their houses as much as they were asking us to borrow and pass the money to them to fund their retirement. Under this clever plan, they are simply asking us to carry on in debt servitude while they sit on a beach sipping watered down drinks and snoozing until the dinner buffet opens. Then, after 25 years or so, all we have to do is find another young couple to do the same for us. Sounds dodgy to me. I think we’ll take a pass on that plan, but thanks Mr & Mrs Boomer for inviting us to “invest” in your wonderful scheme. I have to call the landlady to fix the stove…on her dime. Cheers!

#83 einsturzende neuebauten on 02.24.13 at 9:15 pm

i bought this condo five years ago for 439K. two days ago i called an agent and mentined selling it for 660K (thinking well i will sell for 600 why not). agent called an hour ago – his sister will buy it for 650. i do not know how long will this last but you see it is different here in calgary.

Take it. Fast. — Garth

#84 pacman on 02.24.13 at 9:16 pm

I have ask… Garth, what makes you so certain this “GFC” is over?

Five years ago, dude. Move on. — Garth

#85 AK on 02.24.13 at 9:28 pm

Ah, Forever Young.

The ROD STEWART Version is Awsome.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHNeRjC4nJw

#86 Smoking Man on 02.24.13 at 9:32 pm

Dr Wayne,

all you do is chirp firsts, are you ever going tribute something, or are you just a chirp show….

I’m myself are in a weakend condition, but if you must hole chirp..

Or add some content of tired of your shit on here..

Like what idiot get Pissed when some one says first.

Sure as hell hope your not a shrink

#87 Dr. Hoof-Hearted on 02.24.13 at 9:34 pm

I don’t get it…re “ARGO”

How can a movie about a Toronto CFL team be nominated for an Oscar ?

#88 Timing is Everything on 02.24.13 at 9:38 pm

And they’re a large cohort…

89.4% — The proportion of people in Canada aged 55 and over who reported that they had voted in the last federal election.

http://tinyurl.com/ajdjp8t

#89 Macrath on 02.24.13 at 9:39 pm

–What’s the title of the 1995 book?
————————————————
The book is available at your local library

Author Turner, Garth.

Title 2015 : after the boom : how to prosper through the coming retirement crisis

Imprint Toronto : Key Porter Books, c1995.
Description x, 139 p. : ill.

Topical subject(s) Retirement income — Canada — Planning. / Finance, Personal — Canada.

ISBN 1550136976 (pbk.)

#90 Smoking Man on 02.24.13 at 9:40 pm

DELETED

#91 John Dominsas on 02.24.13 at 9:41 pm

To Mic D’angelo
Garth is trying to help people grow their money and you are trying to do the same thing. You guys just have different views on how to do it. I think both of your approaches make sense and I will combine them using my investments. It’s like hedging my investments if things go south.

Bond yields will eventually rise and trying to get an higher average bond yield looks not such a bad strategy. It’s like dollar cost averaging with interest rates.

I hope Mic D’angelo will discuss what he thinks of what I said.

#92 Country Girl on 02.24.13 at 9:44 pm

#86 Smoking Man on 02.24.13 at 9:32 pm
“Or add some content of tired of your shit on here..
Like what idiot get Pissed when some one says first.
Sure as hell hope your not a shrink”

Couldn’t agree more. Thanks for your post.

#93 dm in c on 02.24.13 at 9:46 pm

Calgary is crazy. Properties going on list day. I was looking at a townhouse that would cost less than rent. Gone already. Going to hunker down even though my rental is way too big now. Want to stay in the neighborhood for schools. What is going on in this city.

#94 Smoking Man on 02.24.13 at 9:48 pm

Fair enough Gartho. Good night

#95 Walter Safety on 02.24.13 at 9:54 pm

Lots of talk here about human nature and housing.Tonight another big ticket item life insurance.
Buying term and investing the difference didn,t work out for most people because the difference just went to lifestyle inflation,cruises or granite.
Those boomers with only 100k in RRSPs can,t even get their hands on 10k non registered cash. Except for the ones that bought whole life . Forced savings , bad investment whatever you call it they still have cash available.

Not bad. Terrible. — Garth

#96 Tim on 02.24.13 at 9:56 pm

Harry Dent predicted the same thing over 10 years ago, and boy was he ever wrong. Those who took his advice missed the biggest run up in real estate in a generation. People don’t sell their house when they turn 60. They still need a place to live. Many of these new condos with all their fees etc. are not a lot cheaper than many houses, except in TO and Van. Seniors will not sell their homes en masse

#97 Smoking Man on 02.24.13 at 10:00 pm

Anonymous on 02.24.13 at 9:14 pmI am going to get drunk with a bunch of my 30-year old peers in a moldy basement suite tonight. I am sure the topic of how the baby boomers sold out our country and ruined our lives will come up.
………………
Sold out the country, ruined your lives.. Mofo it’s my fault as boomer you don’t know your touching your toes knes not bent, and with an elephant behind you.

You feminized, schooled idiots, learn to hunt, learn to take. Blaming your parents, intiled little brat…

#98 COW MAN on 02.24.13 at 10:00 pm

Sir Garth:

Aren’t you glad you aren’t holding elected office? Imagine trying to figure this mess out, without lying to the electorate.

#99 StocksRHot2013 on 02.24.13 at 10:01 pm

Cant wait to hear what Garth has to say about Brad Lambs latest

condo pumping Tom Vu style seminar….

Ctv toronto website has a new article/video on condos in Toronto…..eat it Lamb

#100 Math....man on 02.24.13 at 10:04 pm

Inventory poping up all over the godless gta. Really smrt RE Agents relisting places with different pics, that didn’t sell last fall. Boomers trying to squeak out before s hits the fan, and landlords realizing after buying a calculator that they were cash flow negative each month. In the RE industry anyone with a nice suit and a leased car can tell you whatever they want, with out any reprecussions. When rates move up, regardless of the demographics, the re market is done. It’s about not being able to make the payments, that’s it. Canada is no different and we will see a large correction followed by a sideways market for a decade or longer.

Mathman

#101 Dr. WAYNE on 02.24.13 at 10:06 pm

#86 Smoking Man on 02.24.13 at 9:32 pm

=====================

Huh ?????????????????????????

#102 pacman on 02.24.13 at 10:09 pm

If you want to retire comfortably in Canada when you’re old and decrepit with no savings…Knock up a liquor store. That should get you five years. Wash, rinse, repeat.

#103 Gen Hex — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate | The Affluent Boomer™ on 02.24.13 at 10:11 pm

[…] via Gen Hex — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate. […]

#104 salonist on 02.24.13 at 10:11 pm

Analysis of Endgame

Endgame is the term used to describe an ending in chess where the outcome is already known. Chess masters often study endgames in order to guarantee themselves victory once they maneuver their opponent into a certain position. Beckett, an avid chess fan, saw the parallel between the chess endgame the final stages of life. He realized that death is the final outcome and that regardless of how a person plays the game, he or she will die.

#105 StocksRHot2013 on 02.24.13 at 10:19 pm

#62 …. There’s way worse overpriced homes in the gta than that one…. But ya its still a laughable one in that part of scaryborough…

#106 Smoking Man on 02.24.13 at 10:21 pm

What’s with this boomer bashing, is it my fault your parents are dumb, the machine got Em, got you, but to blame boomers for your plight, dumb idiots….

Then again, I never was bright enough to be indoctrinated, I could not read the manual, I rebeld, I got revenge, yet I’m cast in this pond of idiots.

And horvack will be the next premiere of ont, damb. HARPO will destroy the shadow and carry on his paper masters agenda.

Me got to stick around to give some loved ones a great send off, after bye. Shit weather………..

#107 Humpty Dumpty on 02.24.13 at 10:31 pm

As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information

http://aheadoftheherd.com/Newsletter/2013/Beggaring-Thy-Neighbor-%20Robbing-Joe-To-Pay-Chan.htm

#108 Jpn on 02.24.13 at 10:34 pm

# 54 Ogopogo

I’ve lived in the Okanagan valley all my life and am damn proud of it. I’m getting tiered of reading your crap and in the words of “Stomping Tom” If you don’t believe you’re country should come before yourself you’ll better serve your country by living somewhere else! LEAVE DAMN IT!

#109 TEMPLE on 02.24.13 at 10:34 pm

#16 Victoria Tea Party on 02.24.13 at 6:55 pm

If you can’t get the truth out of central bankers, politicians and others of the “elite” gatekeepers cohort(hiders of the facts) of our besotted planet, then check out the organization which can: The US Central Intelligence Agency…That is why gold and silver coins continue to be very good and very long term hedges against economic disaster as history never ceases to point out.

Hey Tinfoil Hat, you forgot to include the secret pass-phrases of your cult. Next time, please use at least some of the following expressions, or variations thereof:
“helicopter Ben”
“Ponzi”
“kick the can down the road”
“all fiat currency goes to zero”
“printing money”
“gold is money”
“QE to the moon/infinity”

Did I miss any?

TEMPLE

#110 Good Authority on 02.24.13 at 10:45 pm

When was old defined as age 65?
Way back when one lived to be about 69.

Retirement age and old age should be defined about 75 now, some 5-6 years before expected death.
Harper moved it to 67 and I expect another move up the ladder to 70 and beyond.

So we all keep working or wait for those ahead to retire. Bigger base to help out a smaller number of retired folks.
Can’t see any problems there.

Garth can stay busy by writing another book entitled “2025”

#111 Joseph J. Roy on 02.24.13 at 10:49 pm

@Timing is Everything

Yes, indeed. The wrinklies are voting in mass. As such, F can not longer ignore the provincial finance Ministers project to enhance CPP contribution and benefits.

A deal may be achieved by the end of 2013:

“Quebec Finance Minister Nicolas Marceau predicted a deal would be in place to enhance the CPP by the end of 2013.”

Source:http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/finance-ministers-put-cpp-reform-back-on-the-agenda/article6488900/

More on the CPP reform proposal :

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/ministers-have-golden-opportunity-to-break-pension-reform-deadlock/article6466205/

#112 pete on 02.24.13 at 10:57 pm

“Sixty years later, how can so many be so unprepared?”

They’re not unprepared, they’ve been suckered by the system. They played by the rules and invested their money. They have hundreds of thousands of dollars of net worth but the FIAT Currency / Ponzi financial system in which all money is created as a debt with interest due (as taxes) has destroyed the purchasing power of all of their money. The baby-boomers only failing was in not recognizing the financial system for what it is. That being said, there is not much one can do to opt out of the system.

Don’t you loons ever quit? — Garth

#113 Sebee on 02.24.13 at 11:02 pm

Let me play devil’s advocate here…

Wouldn’t selling house and buying all these cheap condos make sense for the wrinklies? Their biggest issue is just living close to a hospital so those condos will have most value.

#114 Fleabitten Monkey on 02.24.13 at 11:03 pm

I recall Bob Rennie stating the aging in Vancouver will be withdrawing the equity in their real estate and using it to help their adult children with their real estate purchases keeping the market STRONG.

#115 Regan on 02.24.13 at 11:24 pm

#67 Mic D’angelo I appreciate your conservative investment approach. Not everyone wants to gamble. Those who do like it will place bets on whatever they see – will the market drop? will gold peak? will my stupid post be first? Getting carried away with competition is pointless, and half the time the people betting would have had nothing to lose if they didn’t choose get caught up in it anyway. Living well is the goal and sleeping well at night is 1/3 the battle.

#116 Chickenlittle on 02.24.13 at 11:30 pm

This made me laugh: “a transient population that is drawn to Kelowna’s mild climate”

Read more: http://www.theprovince.com/news/Gangsters+growth+turning+Kelowna+into+paradise+lost/8005211/story.html#ixzz2LsStjUx2

MILD climate?!? The expected highs for this week are between 2-5 degrees C, and the lows, -2. When I think of mild I expect a lot more than that. This “mild” climate rates right up there with Dampcouvers “hours of sunshine” comparisons. LMFAO. BC is still Canada, so cold weather should not come as a surprise to anyone!!!

#117 Chickenlittle on 02.24.13 at 11:33 pm

DR WAYNE: Fortunately, I’m well out of my fifties and closer to meeting that character with the scythe than those the venerable one speaks of.

I didn’t think you were that old! I always pictured you to be a young guy…

#118 Ralph Cramdown on 02.24.13 at 11:34 pm

#112 pete — “They’re not unprepared, they’ve been suckered by the system. They played by the rules and invested their money. They have hundreds of thousands of dollars of net worth but the FIAT Currency / Ponzi […]”

They ARE the system. Let’s say, for the sake of debate, that I agree it’s a ponzi system. How do you keep a ponzi system going? More victims with more money. Did the boomers get married and have three child families while saving a million plus pensions? No, they had two child families and put away a few hundred thousand. Not going to do it, folks. Not enough of a tax base to keep the ponzi going, and the “die broke” strategy is looking like a bit of a crapshoot. My advice: More cholesterol in the diet, and start farming alpacas.

#119 Coho on 02.24.13 at 11:37 pm

The shocking truth is unfolding right before our eyes, and that is: It’s not about us. It’s much more about the ruling class and much much more about those above the ruling class.

In a fair and just world, people would have a ‘right’ to exist without worry and discomfort and the abled to carry the disabled. But this isn’t a fair and just world, and we have no ‘rights’ in the eyes of our unseen lords and masters. Much like humans raise and harvest crops and cattle — so are human resources harvested not only from our surface everyday prosaic ‘reality’ (labour, taxes, living expenses) but more so from the unseen arcane ‘reality’.

The rise of the middle class in western countries was a necessary unpleasant by-product in order to develop technology enough to institute a one world government.

There are plenty of resources to go around so that nobody need suffer, but those at the top hoard them creating the illusion of scarcity. Atop of that, the lie propagated that it is the average person on the street to blame for this so called scarcity is insult to injury. Alas the last 3 generations of middle class standard of living is history. It’ll be back to hand to mouth living, which has been the case throughout the ages. We, the western ‘sheep’ have served our purpose. What we face is the jobless youth and boomers going bust. All that ‘wealth’ evaporating into nothingness.

It aint going to end well, and there will be a heap of suffering on the way there.

Hello, Dispatch? Yes, we need another ream of tinfoil here on the blog. Hell, make it two. — Garth

#120 Dodged-A-Bullit-In-Alberta on 02.24.13 at 11:46 pm

Greetings: This post by Mr Turner has compelled me to go into my box of books, stored in the crawl space. I have pulled out a book Called “The Strategy, Garth Turner, 1997″. I found this book at a thrift store a couple of years ago, brand new, never opened. $1.50. As a follower of this blog in the last 4 years, I could not pass up buying it. Way back then, the message was, ‘DO NOT PUT ALL YOUR EGGS IN REAL ESTATE”. Back then, the internet was not a big part of our lives, I did not even own a computer, and I had no clue who Garth Turner was. Am going to open the book and see if our “guru” has been consistant in his message over the years. Not that I will attempt to hang him on his own “petard”, but only to discover that had I found this book years earlier, my financial plan may have been adjusted to far better build our security, especially once I retired.

#121 Gigi on 02.24.13 at 11:49 pm

#104 salonist wrote:
“Endgame is the term used to describe an ending in chess where the outcome is already known.”

Why do you write about things that you don’t know?

Whenever the conversation turn to a subject that I am familiar with, I realize how full of crap most of the commenters here are.

#122 broadway skytrain on 02.24.13 at 11:49 pm

parts of van still smoking hot , don’t believe all the doom and gloom – this is a post from 13 days ago….

#123 broadway skytrain on 02.11.13 at 2:17 pm
#101 Finally on 02.11.13 at 11:12 am
I know 3 friends trying to sell thier house in Burnaby, Richmond and Point Grey for more than 8 months now. Many open houses, not a single offer. I sold my primary residence DT townhouse in May 2012, and 2 other investment condo’s in 2011 and now renting.
————————————-
they should have bought in e van – grandview woodlands – inventory is lower than ever, EVERYTHING not way overpriced sells very very fast – my friend just put his un-renoed, granite free, needs painting, uninsulated, old timer sfh up for sale – i figure 920 or so is the true value – he’s asking 1.1M, he’ll probably get it.

———————————————————-
SOLD!
9 days for a tired old timer to sell for higher than ever pricing (last year you needed a nicely reno’d and bling’d house to get 1M) this year any old run down place get’s 1.1M

don’t weep too hard for us soggy vancouver homeowners – sold stickers still go up faster than the reputation of idiot firsters.

#123 Cy Young on 02.24.13 at 11:54 pm

Jpn

Born and raised in Penticton, all Kelowna is is big box stores and strip malls surrounded by urban sprawl. Not to mention the people suck as well.

The idiots running the local government are doing everything in their power to destroy the character of Penticton. The Okanagan sucks, I moved a long time ago along with 90% of my grad class because the older generation basically scorched the earth when it came to wages and living standards.

#124 broadway skytrain on 02.24.13 at 11:55 pm

correction/
reputation of idiot firsters … goes down.

and just a little more proof of the dumbassedness of the fools who post first when they are 7th ot 12th. my 6 yr old kid can tell when, to the second, garth post is put up on any night. posting first 15 minutes later proved you are not only an a@@hole but you are retarded at computers too!

#125 The Man From Nantucket on 02.24.13 at 11:55 pm

Recently swiped a copy of “After the Boom” from my Father-in-Law’s bookshelf and re-read it.

It’s pretty interesting that a whole lot of it came true more or less exactly as the G-man said it would.

It’s also pretty amazing that you used to be able to get 9% return from GC strip bonds and that you could have pretty easily built a million dollar RRSP with a few hundred dollars a month.

Wish I had started taking some of this advice at the time!

#126 Snowboid on 02.24.13 at 11:57 pm

Update from my post #85 Snowboid on 01.20.13 at 6:15 pm…

About former Victoria neighbours still trying to sell their comparable property (the ones who thought we were nuts to sell in 2011), have now reduced their price again.

Third paragraph should now read:

Over $135K less than we sold our more modest home for in the spring of 2011 – even if they sell at asking they will have lost over $85K from what they paid.

Given they have already bought a much bigger home, it has to hurt…

#127 AprilNewwest on 02.25.13 at 12:09 am

#33 Grantmi – Would this area be in South Surrey off 172nd?

#128 AprilNewwest on 02.25.13 at 12:12 am

#34 Old Wrinkley – maybe so but too many of us don’t know how to do it on our own.

#129 Dodged-A-Bullit-In-Alberta on 02.25.13 at 12:14 am

Greetings: #119 COHO/

Your comments were very close to the truth, and I think Mr. Turners’ comments were uncalled for. Story in today Calgary Herald, “Albertans win $ 30 million dollars”. OBSCENE!!! What would be so terribly wrong with headline ” 30 Albertans each win 1 million dollars???” Has our society become so greed orientiated that we celebrate for these winners and ignore those living in poverty???

You can always leave this blog and join the NDP. — Garth

#130 Mic D'angelo on 02.25.13 at 12:18 am

To Regan #115 I appreciate the kind words and appreciate that you can see my point of view, it has worked well for me and my family.If you talk to most investors today they would love to have a 6.50% safe passive ,constant stream of income and sleep at night.

Garth, it is not personal it’s business. (T.C.T.) Taking care or business. It is my favorite song.

#131 AprilNewwest on 02.25.13 at 12:25 am

#81 – It’s not the boomers fault it’s the system. As if you and your generation would not have behaved in a similar way had you been around then.

#132 Rc on 02.25.13 at 12:28 am

I remember when I first bought Garth’s book about 2015. I read it a few times and then passed it on to my brother and he never read it. I’m retired at 50 brother cooks a mean rodent.

#133 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.25.13 at 12:37 am

@ #113 Sebee on 02.24.13 at 11:02 pm
Let me play devil’s advocate here…

Wouldn’t selling house and buying all these cheap condos make sense for the wrinklies? Their biggest issue is just living close to a hospital so those condos will have most value.
______________________

Depends on where the house is, and where the condo is… in Toronto at least, the condos targeted at retirees tend to be far more expensive. Boomers don’t want to be living in the “cheaper” $250k-$300k units next to drunk 23-yr-olds in the renter ghetto known as CityPlace.

If someone has a $600k or even $800k house, selling that to buy a $500k+ condo is barely gaining anything. Might as well just make a rental suite.

#134 ZanzibarStand on 02.25.13 at 12:58 am

Visibility on the imbalance of costs/benefits for different generations is becoming more widespread.

There is an effort to raise the profile of the generational divide to make it an issue in the upcoming BC provincial election due in May.

Here’s a snippet from an article on the http://gensqueeze.ca website analyzing the BC Liberals Feb 21, 2013 pre-election provincial budget:

http://gensqueeze.tumblr.com/post/43950563759/bc-budget-analysis

———————-

Regrettably, today’s budget delivered almost no increase for young people. The child care announcement made today allocates an extra two dollars and 40 cents per young person next year.

Interestingly, the same budget added $1.5 billion to medical care spending over the next 3 years – spending which primarily benefits the generation of retirees, adding $1000 a year per British Columbian over 65.

The problem is – annual government spending per retiree is already around $45,000 in BC, compared to just $12,000 per British Columbian under age 45. In response, the Generation Squeeze Campaign, supported by a large network of partners from business, labour, social services, and the academy asks government to narrow the generational spending gap slightly by increasing expenditures on younger generations from $12,000 to $13,000 – a thousand dollars per young person. Today’s budget did the reverse, leaving younger citizens further behind.

#135 GC on 02.25.13 at 12:59 am

#123 Cy Young
I can’t disagree with you, the uglification of Kelowna over the past 30 years has been a disgrace. I moved away almost 20 years ago but still visit often.
I’m still living in the Okanagan but I won’t say where lest more retiring Albertans decide this is may be another place they’d like to “invest” in.

#136 Dodged-A-Bullit-In-Alberta on 02.25.13 at 1:01 am

Greetings: My post, #129. Mr Turners response-“You can always leave this blog and join the NDP- Garth”.
Many years ago, I used to support the NDP, I was young, and working in a unionized job, goverened by the federal Labor Code, {aviation}. I stopped supporting the NDP when Ed Broadbent left politics, and accepted a position as an ambassador to Ireland, I believe. It was then that I came to the understanding that every politician can be bought, no matter what they attempt to say otherwise to Canadians. I have never since voted in a federal election, nor given any money to any federal political party. I still stand by the convictions learned from my parents that honesty and integrity are the basis of my being, and sadly Canadian politicians do not meet that requirement.

Nor, as a voter, do you. — Garth

#137 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.25.13 at 1:01 am

-
Great post! It’s good to reflect on what has happened, because it will happen again and again, albeit in different circumstances. History rhymes and repeats.

If we do not learn from history, we are doomed to repeat it, and is why taking a new look at old habits or objects will shed new light on things of the past, such as Historical Questions.

Just because someone says we must buy a home, because it’s a great investment is not necessarily true. Shakespeare’s Polonius said:

“This above all: to thine own self be true, / And it must follow, as the night the day,
Thou canst not then be false to any man. / Farewell, my blessing season this in thee!”
which is better referred to as Listen and follow the gut instincts. Far more accurate than herd garbage.

The pic says something about the Leafs in the playoffs. That was in the mid-18th century, right?!

#51 Smoking Man — “When you feel like you fit in, it’s time to tell them where to go…” — Well the herd is not about to leave, as they have found their comfort zone — they would rather someone else did the work, while they benefit.

But time to go? Hey babe, trip the light fantastic and break on through!

#16 Victoria Tea Party and #119 Coho — “There are plenty of resources to go around so that nobody need suffer, but those at the top hoard them creating the illusion of scarcity.”

This is an abundant world, but the resources have been taken over by Monsanto, Dow and others so you are correct, it is simply an illusion so that prices can be hiked up. No, this classroom of a planet was never intended to be fair and just, and never will be. Good posts from both of you.
*
Why the Fed could fix the economy, but hasn’t; Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous Opulent, to say the least; 127 Corporations (listed) that will fix the debt by using investors’ retirement funds; JPM knows a whole lot more than what it is letting on, and BoA just got a reprieve, but BoA says no gun selling to customers; 11:10 clip Fiscal voodoo as explained to children; Iran has sufficient oil for a century or more; Straight Talk “Wal-Mart may be the canary in the coal mine.”; Fatcats getting fatter; ObombaCare Step in the wrong direction? For Sale Greek islands, a few mln.
*
When all four engines on a 747 fail, hire a British Airways captain to come up with the following quote; 1:02 clip “Ever wonder about those nondescript black SUVs tagging along with the Presidential motorcade? Wonder no more. They are there to mow down entire crowds of Americans to protect the gun-grabber in chief!” wrh.com, 3:14 clip Gun control is people control, and Not willing to sell guns to cops; Men’s Gongs This scientific stuff, outta my depth; US soldiers down, so pump them up with SSRI’s and see how that works; Colorado and Michigan – anti-NDAA bills facing final hurdles, plus Tag and Bag Us NDAA, depop., Obomba etc.; US-led West slaughters civilians in Syria. al Quada, of course, is made up by the CIA and Mossad; 13 Brain Boosting Foods increasing memory; Prepping nine year olds? Survivalists’ guide; Check this out before feds. pull it; Interesting Former Dr. Who, Ian Fleming and Hitler; Garage Sales or second-hand markets can be extremely profitable at times; Drones Great depop. method; Chris Dorner’s wallet found – twice; Rainwater Oregon claims state ownership, which places them at odds with the feds. who have claimed rights all across the US.

#138 John Dominsas on 02.25.13 at 1:03 am

To #125 The Man From Nantucket.
I hear you loud and clear. I made a calculation. The 9.00% bond yield on government of Canada strips was awesome and you would of needed $4,650 a year or $388 per month for 35 years to have a 1miilion dollar RRSP.I don’t know what few hundred dollars a month was exactly so I used this example.

There is good news and bad news. I will explain.Today, we have TFSA’s tax-free savings accounts which we all know grow tax-free until one is deceased.After the deceased, the beneficiary pays income tax only on the earnings or growth of the TFSA. This is the good news.

The bad news we have much lower bond yields.As many times Mic D’angelo said provincial strips pay at most 3.87%. Since tax-free savings accounts are not taxable income, they are equivalent to a larger RRSP balance. An example,the maximum TFSA is $5,500 per year and at 3.87% interest rate on provincial strip bonds invested for 35 years $5,500 TFSA contributed each year the TFSA value is $394,673.

Remember this is income tax-free unlike an RRSP. This is equivalent to a larger RRSP depending on your marginal income tax rate.If you are in Ontario the highest marginal income tax rate is about 50%,so it’s about $789,347.I know it’s not 1 million dollars. If a spouse does the same it’s equivalent to $1,578,694 RRSP.

If you want to make up the difference of $210,653 you must contribute about $245 more per month in a RRSP with the same 3.87% for 35 years in provincial strips.Basically, you would need $8,440 per year or $703.33 per month to have an equivalent 1million dollar RRSP.It is a $703 month vs. 388 per month a $315 per month more for 35 years which is $132,300 more over 35 years not as one lump sum.This is the bad news.

It’s not as terrible as people think. I don’t think government bond yields will stay this low for 35 years.
I was curious about making the calculation and I used an assumption of a 32 year old investing until 67 years old.

#139 Dr. Hoof-Hearted on 02.25.13 at 1:04 am

Well congratulations to Toronto…

You won a lot of Oscars for “ARGO”…though I thought the pool of nominees was as shallow as I have ever seen.

Dear Garth : why did you pull the earlier blog photo…Death Threats? …..or CRA audit?….or whats the difference?

#140 aggie on 02.25.13 at 1:05 am

Y’no, much as greaterfool.ca is almost like a coffee shop thick with smoke hanging in the air, thanks to SM’s presence, I’d really like to know where to go on a Saturday morning to hang out with some of you dogs, be great to hang with a good mix of dogs, from the dachs to the danes, basement dwellers to dr waynes and what’s the gal from guelph’s name…?

Anyway, if any of you go for coffee on Saturday or Sunday mornings in the old-fashioned way, to a place where people actually self-respectingly eavesdrop on conversations that are meant to be shared, and where you can reasonably respectfully butt in or at least introduce yourselves, talk to each other about matters that matter… please pop the name and locale of the cafe here. And please don’t let it be Starbucks!!!!

Me, I’m still a grateful ex-condo owner, now proud renter in bby bc, forever thankful for this new, proactive life-perspective that garth and the blog have given me ;))

…now scrambling to figure out what to do about rrsps, because I had cashed some in over a year ago, having read garth’s advice too late… so will be owing a chunk of extra tax $s and am therefore meeting with tnl@tb in the morning. At least I hear loud and clear: no individual stocks, no mutual funds. Got it! But I sense that I’m learning too d’d slowly…

#141 Retired Boomer - WI on 02.25.13 at 1:05 am

#35 Mister Obvious good post there, sir.

Might I add, when social pressures increase on the young, trapped, broke people, they will never look at themselves as perhaps the cause of their plight. Whether it was waiting too long to unload a mortgaged property so you have lost most of -if not all- of the profit for your retirement -or- the 45 yr old who sees unmanageable debt in their future, -or- the young & clueless.

What all of these have as a common denominator is the feeling the future holds little chance for them. They will start looking for the scapegoat. That could be the fairly secure retirees, it could be a particular voting block. Ever listen to the right-wing AM radio trash talk from the US at night? Scary stuff to me!! We had a popular elected leader back in the 1930’s in Germany, who decided their problems all stemmed from a certain religious group.
Yes, it was stupid then, and it is still stupid, but it brought the entire world into a war.

Never underestimate the power of those who feel oppressed. You can not cure stupid, maybe just make it less so.

#142 Dr. WAYNE on 02.25.13 at 1:14 am

#117 Chickenlittle on 02.24.13 at 11:33 pm

DR WAYNE: Fortunately, I’m well out of my fifties and closer to meeting that character with the scythe than those the venerable one speaks of.

I didn’t think you were that old! I always pictured you to be a young guy…

=======================

Hey … keep picturing it so … my wife says I ‘still’ haven’t grown up … this is so stated when my flatulence explodes at the dinner table … but God does it feel good.

#143 jan on 02.25.13 at 1:15 am

Canadian dollar dropping like crazy.
I guess, Canada is being sold off.

#144 John Prine on 02.25.13 at 1:42 am

I am going to get drunk with a bunch of my 30-year old peers in a moldy basement suite tonight. I am sure the topic of how the baby boomers sold out our country and ruined our lives will come up.
______________________________________________

Impressive…There’s always Fort MacMurray. Put down the I-phone and go do something….

#145 aggie on 02.25.13 at 1:44 am

p.s. to explain re RRSPs… having been a passive non-investor, they’ve been in GICs, coming due in about 10 days, so I need to redirect them. Plus top them off…

#146 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 02.25.13 at 1:47 am

How ugly IS it getting in Surrey EAST ….aka Kelowna ???

“Revenge of the Post Boomers”

http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2013/02/diy-weapons-of-the-syrian-rebels/100461/

#147 aggie on 02.25.13 at 2:01 am

On behalf of the kind Derek R and for the benefit of those who, like me, are still working on learning the lingo, here’s a repost of his post from last August, which I had bookmarked:

#3 Derek R on 08.23.12 at 3:10 am

It’s time for the GarthFAQ again. If you have read something in Garth’s posts that you don’t understand, take a look at the GarthFAQ. You may find an explanation in there. It also contains the answers to a few common questions, so you might want to read it before asking something that’s been answered many times before.

Instead of pasting it into the comments I have put it on the web this time, so please follow the link.

https://docs.google.com/document/pub?id=1EVlDhkf7qkUsihOM5HdNfECc6sahkF2iOn7G8vXqiL4

#148 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.25.13 at 2:08 am

Not sure how much this would match the landscape in Canada, but some interesting numbers on 401(K) balances in the U.S.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100459687

Fidelity said the average year-end balances were:
. $143,300 for participants 55 and older and not yet retired
. $120,400 for baby boomers born from 1946 to 1964
. $59,100 for Generation Xers born from 1965 to 1978
. $15,400 for those in Generation Y, born from 1979 to 1991

So, the average 35-to-48 Gen X’er has all of $60k saved for retirement, and the average Boomer has $120k… if anyone can figure out how to make a lifestyle industry for people expected to live 30 years off of $200,000 or less, they will be rich.

#149 coastal on 02.25.13 at 2:12 am

The trend I’m seeing when looking at homes for sale under $500,000 in Victoria are there seems to be a lot of the elderly dying off at a faster rate than usual, as so many are decorated as if it’s 1960-80 range. Could see a faster decline in V-town if this continues and the fixer uppers are forced to drop their price via the estate to get the sale.

#150 Victoria Tea Party on 02.25.13 at 2:44 am

EVERY DOG HAS HIS (HER) DAY, OR DOG!

In response to…

#109 TEMPLE

“Hey Tinfoil Hat, you forgot to include the secret pass-phrases of your cult. Next time, please use at least some of the following expressions, or variations thereof:
“helicopter Ben”
“Ponzi”… ”

Yeah, and so what?

The quote I lifted from Zero Hedge, regards the CIA, is entirely valid with or without the “tin foil”.

One of the CIA’s principal roles is to “spy” for the economic gain of the American Empire.

If the empire doesn’t know the economic condition of the so-called “competition” then trouble shows up shortly after.

I wonder how much warning the agency was able to give the White House ahead of the 2008 debacle?

I have no clue.

But stats the CIA’s pumping out now show the world economy is in a dreadful mess inspite of the ever-rising-without-end stock markets. Those markets are up sort of like the Victoria real estate market which, until recently, was never going down except that it is!

But what IF, and inspite of all the manipulations, the markets DO stall out one day and do another 2008? What will happen then?

The CIA is on the case, I’m pretty sure. What will be the outcome of their studies and recommendations? We wait anxiously.

AND THEN…

…there was this in which Sir Garth of Aluminum Head Gear had a similar “tin foil” moment for the following post, which reads in part:

#119 COHO

“…Alas the last 3 generations of middle class standard of living is history. It’ll be back to hand to mouth living, which has been the case throughout the ages. We, the western ‘sheep’ have served our purpose. What we face is the jobless youth and boomers going bust. All that ‘wealth’ evaporating into nothingness…”

I also agree that the Western Middle Class, as it’s come to be known and so popular, is closer to the finish line than the start line, in its present form.

It IS a relatively new innovation and, therefore, probably could use some redefinition of some kind. It is a process that is now cruelly underway.

Spawned as it was from the post-industrial revolution’s 19th century European and American petit-bourgeois chattering classes, whose roots go back to the earlier formation of the mercantile classes, of downtown Europe, nothing stays the same for long; housing and stock market moves notwithstanding.

The new middle classes will have to learn to navigate through more than empty recyclable lattee cups stewn upon local sidewalks.

They’ll have to consider environmental/consumptive issues and currency wars and the sunset of the so-called traditional salary and benefits-based career model.

At this point temporary contract work seems to be coming into vogue. How will that be able to reinflate the real estate industry and unbridled consumerism?

What will solve the problem? Maybe more money printing?

That seems to be the elite’s ongoing “cure” which is no cure no how.

#151 vancouver2011 on 02.25.13 at 3:08 am

@ smoking man
boomer bashing really gets to you, huh?????
lay off the booze before you get on this blog. u might pack it in early if you don’t.

#152 juno on 02.25.13 at 3:17 am

Finally, some real stats, Not from Canada, because are politicians are in on the SCAM. But from CHINA.

Canadian media can learn alot from the Chinese. They actually do research!!!

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2013/02/mac-gate-helps-expose-myth-of-ham-hot.html

#153 Gaston on 02.25.13 at 3:24 am

I keep hearing on Garth’s blog that mortgage rates will be going up, so the thought is to lock into a new mortgage before they do go up. I can lock into a 3.79% for 10 years, which is historically extremely low. I’m leaning towards doing so, based on the assumption that if i wait 2 years for my current rate to expire, the mortgage rates that that time would be at least 4.79% for a five year. Of course, in 2 years, the rates could be exactly as they are today, in which case I would have wasted the $1100 penalty.

Any thoughts? Thanks.

#154 Small Town Steve on 02.25.13 at 3:30 am

#119 coho
There are many people that believe the exact same thing.
They live in North Korea. Join them there.

#155 betamax on 02.25.13 at 4:38 am

#132 Rc: “brother cooks a mean rodent.”

That could be a valuable job skill when the boomers run out of money.

#156 Piccaso on 02.25.13 at 5:32 am

#15 Dog Walker on 02.24.13 at 6:53 pm
Boom! (ers) Won’t the boomers start liquidating stocks as well as housing?

Most don’t have stocks. Those who do understand the need for income. — Garth
………………………………………………………………….

I wish I had never heard about stocks, I’d be a quarter million dollars richer today :)

I have said repeatedly that buying individual equities leads most people to heartache. — Garth

#157 Steven Rowlandson on 02.25.13 at 7:39 am

My thesis was simple. By two years from now our built-in demographic time bomb would cause real estate values to crumble and financial markets to rise.

No Garth you are only half right.
Financial markets, politics, civilization and peoples wages will fall ushering in an era of barbarism and gang wars. The world as we all know it is a NWO scam with nothing credible except brute force to back it up. Once people lose everything they will lose it as Gerald Celente says.

‘Barbarism and gang wars.’ More evidence the bullion-lickers have lost their collective mind. – Garth

#158 Smoking Man on 02.25.13 at 7:40 am

Threw the fog of another splendid hangover, it dawns on me.

Insanity is not acting crazy, insanity is when you act normal….

#159 David B on 02.25.13 at 7:49 am

Of course you were and are correct Sir, but the sky is not falling and perhaps the type of work most people do they could do cradle to grave and enjoy all there is until then. Those that are frugal will be and those who are not …are not … somethings never change ….

The goal of life id definitely not frugal. — Garth

#160 marc on 02.25.13 at 8:04 am

I understand the housing part but you fail to adequately explain why investments will automatically go up. Many think the markets are still on borrowed time.

Nothing ‘automatic’ about it. But a portfolio which was balanced (60/40), diversified and actively managed returned 7% over the last nine years, which included the 08-9 meltdown. Not bad. — Garth

#161 AK on 02.25.13 at 9:12 am

#155 Piccaso on 02.25.13 at 5:32 am

“I wish I had never heard about stocks, I’d be a quarter million dollars richer today :)”
——————————————————————-

I am on the opposite end. If it wasn’t for stocks, I would have less than a quarter of what I have today.

#162 Not 1st on 02.25.13 at 9:16 am

Garth I am hearing that all those broke boomers are counting on part time jobs at Wal mart to save them.

#163 AK on 02.25.13 at 9:16 am

#138 John Dominsas on 02.25.13 at 1:03 am

——————————————————————

Why are you posting under 2 different ID’s?

#164 Not 1st on 02.25.13 at 9:21 am

158 Marc

Look up great rotation. It argues that the bond market is way over bought with low yeilds under inflation so people will have no choice but to search for higher yeilds in equities. On top of that companies are sitting on lots if cash that the govt will either tax unless they pay out as dividends or invest in the economy.

The last reason I am not 100% sold on like Garth is that boomers will down size en masse and put their house profits into equities.

Nowhere did I say Boomers would move as a herd to sell their homes. Best estimate is that about a third may do so – enough to tank prices. Nor did I say they would invest this money into equities. Only the smart ones will establish balanced, diversified portfolios. The rest will, like you, keep dead money. — Garth

#165 LP on 02.25.13 at 9:23 am

#142Dr. WAYNE on 02.25.13 at 1:14 am
Hey … keep picturing it so … my wife says I ‘still’ haven’t grown up … this is so stated when my flatulence explodes at the dinner table … but God does it feel good.

==============================

Ah, I get it now…your fixation with a**holes. You’ve got one, just like the rest of us, but you use your’s at inappropriate times and places in anti-social ways.

#166 Buy? Curious? on 02.25.13 at 9:38 am

Garth, I’m scared. I ran out of tin foil. Hold me?

#167 Anonymous on 02.25.13 at 9:40 am

I love Coho’s posts. I vote NDP. But I am a big fan of Garth Turner too. Take it as a compliment, Garth. You have cross-partisan appeal. That is the sign of being a true statesman.

#168 Buy? Curious? on 02.25.13 at 9:49 am

Hey Blog dawgs over 60! Did you hear about all the beatings and killings out in Whitby. I was talking to one of my many girlfriends and she was saying that her parents who happen to live out that way, are scared. Really scared. I mean, they’re afraid to go to work as Walmart greeters because they think a gunfight will break out between the Jets and Sharks (Westside Story reference to those younger than 40 and who aren’t film geeks). Fear is contagious and and as indiscriminate as my sex life is. Once it takes hold, especially in old people, it never lets go.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7p-ssjz7UA

#169 Ret on 02.25.13 at 9:49 am

#153 and a 10y mortgage.

One question. The fees for breaking that 10y for any reason would be?????

#170 IM in C on 02.25.13 at 9:51 am

@17 RAJ
WRT life insurance. If you have dependents, at age 34 (at age 35 the rates go up) take out a 10 year term policy. This will give financial protection to your wife and kids during the time period when they are most vulnerable financially should you die.
Having said that, perhaps Mr. turner could devote a column to the do’s and don’ts of life insurance.

#171 syfon on 02.25.13 at 9:54 am

I bought that book than and really enjoyed it

#172 Buy? Curious? on 02.25.13 at 9:57 am

Why are people self censoring themselves by using asteriks * or dollar signs $ when using the word “asshole”? I assuming everyone here is an adult. Spell like a Boss, let Garth decide if your comment should get deleted or don’t use the word, M’ Kay?

#173 rosie "moving forward" on 02.25.13 at 10:17 am

# 112, 118, 119, 157

Try to keep moving forward when faced with, http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=the%20man

#129
How about 30 million people get a loony. No wait, 15 million get a toony. Even better, 10 million get a throony. The possibilities are endless, moving forward.

#174 AK on 02.25.13 at 10:27 am

#138 John Dominsas on 02.25.13 at 1:03 am

“It’s not as terrible as people think. I don’t think government bond yields will stay this low for 35 years.
I was curious about making the calculation and I used an assumption of a 32 year old investing until 67 years old.”
——————————————————————–

If you don’t think that Bond yields will stay this low for 35 years, then why would you recommend buying a 30 year Strip Bond? Having said that, you are quite the entertainer. :-)

#175 Jpn on 02.25.13 at 10:27 am

# 123 Cy Young

Thanks for helping me make my point.

#176 Herb on 02.25.13 at 10:38 am

#158 Smoking Man,

only if you’re Smoking Man.

#177 Herb on 02.25.13 at 10:39 am

#153 Gaston,

I’d take the ten and enjoy feeling like a financial genius in a few years.

#178 Chickenlittle on 02.25.13 at 10:41 am

DR WAYNE: ….this is so stated when my flatulence explodes at the dinner table … but God does it feel good…..

And when you wake up too, Im sure! Thats how I know mine is awake…. ;)

Im sure no one else on this blog has EVER done that….

#179 bigrider on 02.25.13 at 10:41 am

Garth- ” people with liquid assets are not the same as people trapped in a real estate mentality”

Very true. Just stand outside the Italian consulate for proof.

Garth-” Many found Brad Lamb’s presentation both vacuous and profane”

Yes but the dim sum and spaghetti and meatballs served afterwards reeled them all in .

#180 bigrider on 02.25.13 at 10:52 am

An Indian friend of mine just bought an ” investment condo “in Brampton in an area which is basically a farmers field.

I asked him why he thought it was a good investment and he said because everyone is moving here and area is expanding.

I told him to join his condo board, push for a helicopter pad on the roof for the downtown commutes, and ask the farmer behind the building if he could milk his sheep to make goat cheese on the side.

#181 Seven Stars and Orion on 02.25.13 at 10:55 am

I desperately need some people-skill advice.
My in-laws are 2 years from being mortgage-free, (~250k garden home). They are will retire after that, hoping to sell and adding the proceeds to their nestegg. How, or should I, tactfully get them to consider listing asap? They barely escaped the el salvador war in the early 80’s with the shirts on their back, and have done well all things considered. They are always on me to buy their grandchildren a house, instead of renting one like we do. These are not tech-savvy people, and have bought in to the old “owning a dirt patch” philosophy, hook, line and no-pun-intended sinker.
Thanks for your time.

#182 Seven Stars and Orion on 02.25.13 at 10:56 am

Should add this is the ottawa market

#183 Pr on 02.25.13 at 11:02 am

A good one: http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/clip_image001_thumb15.jpg

#184 Ret on 02.25.13 at 11:02 am

So we are getting rid of perfectly good cents but we are keeping the Senate. This makes no sense.

#185 Gunboat denier on 02.25.13 at 11:12 am

153 Gaston – your penalty sounds low, and the 10 yr deals sounds very good, so I would be tempted to take it, especially if you can get it paid off over that time without severely reducing your savings rate.

#186 Herb on 02.25.13 at 11:15 am

We simply must blame the victims, boomers or whoever. The alternative would be to admit that financial success is achieved by taking advantage of our intellectually weaker/gullible fellow man.

And that could not possibly happen in a democratic and Christian society, could it?

#187 Penny Henny on 02.25.13 at 11:19 am

DELETED

#188 Blasé on 02.25.13 at 11:29 am

seven stars and Orion: save your breath, can’t teach an old dog new tricks. they’re there to stay.

#189 Dr. WAYNE on 02.25.13 at 11:34 am

#165 LP on 02.25.13 at 9:23 am

Ah, I get it now…your fixation with a**holes. You’ve got one, just like the rest of us, but you use your’s at inappropriate times and places in anti-social ways.

=======================

If you’ve ever spent time actually thinking about it, this particular fixture of the human body is, perhaps, one of the most important in sustaining life. Without it functioning as per evolutionary design, little in life would be worthwhile/enjoyable. The fact that it can ‘double’ as a party favour and generate mirth at nearly ANY VOLUME is unique in the homo sapien world.

As far as being ‘inappropriate’ and ‘anti-social’ … speak for yourself …

This is the end of a dialogue wheich has not enhanced this blog. Further comments will be deleted without notice. — Garth

#190 Harvard Grad on 02.25.13 at 11:42 am

If anyone wants to question what seniors do after retirement – take a quick drive to my old stomping grounds in what was once called Etobicoke – these homes are 1950 style homes which most of the original homeowners still there.

People just don’t drop dead at 65 or shrivel up – sure they move abit slower and can annoy me when driving – but there is no mass exedos to the old age farm.

They have maintained their homes quiet nicely – hire the seasonal crews to shovel or mow. Good on them – I guess being 80 is the new 70 – from my guess – most probably had basic savings accounts and appear to be doing just fine – no reports of eating cat food and sitting in the dark.

Lets not all get crazy with assumptions here – if North Etobicoke is any indication – things will work out quiet nicely.

The trick is to live within your means – don’t fall for the banks trap that you needs billions to retire comfortably – that’s bs bank proproganda.

Today’s elderly bear little relation to the elderly of the future – Boomers in 20 years. Bad example. — Garth

#191 charles on 02.25.13 at 11:47 am

‘Barbarism and gang wars.’ More evidence the bullion-lickers have lost their collective mind. – Garth
This is not evidence of anything other than you using this platform to put down investing in Precious Metals. One mans opinon is what it is, just like yours. The view through the tinted glass of that Bay Street office is filtering out a lot of fact.

Gangs and barbarism? You have lost your way. — Garth

#192 Regan on 02.25.13 at 11:50 am

@17 RAJ – my own approach to life insurance was to get enough to cover the big disaster, i.e. I’m dead, debts coming due, forced to move out of our home and the kids are still babies. We bundled all our insurance into one package. The $300/month savings from bundling meant we could both get life insurance (term 20 years of $300K each which covered all debts, full education funding for 3 kids AND covers living costs for several years) and we still are $150/month less than what we were paying before. This gets applied to our savings, which is the better way to self-insure for smaller disasters. One nice thing about the insurance is that it’s paid out as a lump sum if we both die, not part of the estate, and is immediately available to our kids’ godparent. If you get insurance, think about what you want it to realistically accomplish and you’ll find the right number.

#193 NoOneOfConsequence on 02.25.13 at 11:54 am

Hey Garth, I know you recommend fixed fee advisors…but check out this guy:
http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/19/whats-in-my-tfsa/
He is a fixed fee advisor, advising people to go with RBC 1.25% GIC’s in a TFSA. This guy is featured in the FINANCIAL POST. Which is considered a reputable investment advice publication.
This advice doesn’t seem consistent with what I have learned here.
I mean honestly…how is a normal guy who works 9-5 supposed to know whose advice to follow?
Would you please consider doing a “special feature” on a list of hard questions for normal folks to ask their prospective financial advisors?

He is not investing in savings within the TFSA. The article clearly says he is holding money there waiting for other securities’ prices to adjust. — Garth

#194 martin9999 on 02.25.13 at 12:12 pm

how can real estate go down if a fixed 5 year is at 2.75%

just impossible, next 5 years sure thing but not now

#195 :) :( Ying Yang on 02.25.13 at 12:16 pm

#158 Smoking Man on 02.25.13 at 7:40 am
Threw the fog of another splendid hangover, it dawns on me.
Insanity is not acting crazy, insanity is when you act normal….
I have seen mad people, and I have known some who were quite intelligent, lucid, even clear-sighted in every concern of life, except on one point. They could speak clearly, readily, profoundly on everything; till their thoughts were caught in the breakers of their delusions and went to pieces there, were dispersed and swamped in that furious and terrible sea of fogs and squalls which is called MADNESS. This is for you Smoking Man!

The lunatic is on the grass.
The lunatic is on the grass.
Remembering games and daisy chains and laughs.
Got to keep the loonies on the path.

The lunatic is in the hall.
The lunatics are in my hall.
The paper holds their folded faces to the floor
And every day the paper boy brings more.

And if the dam breaks open many years too soon
And if there is no room upon the hill
And if your head explodes with dark forebodings too
I’ll see you on the dark side of the moon.

The lunatic is in my head.
The lunatic is in my head
You raise the blade, you make the change
You re-arrange me ’till I’m sane.

You lock the door
And throw away the key
There’s someone in my head but it’s not me.
And if the cloud bursts, thunder in your ear
You shout and no one seems to hear.
And if the band you’re in starts playing different tunes
I’ll see you on the dark side of the moon.

“I can’t think of anything to say except…”
“I think it’s marvellous! HaHaHa!”

#196 Bottoms_Up on 02.25.13 at 12:17 pm

#182 Seven Stars and Orion on 02.25.13 at 10:56 am
——————————————————
Their Ottawa garden home at 250k is likely fairly priced and if it’s in a decent neighbourhood will probably achieve that price point over the next couple years. I wouldn’t worry too much about it — the Ottawa market is not going to drop out from under them (there are over 500,000 people employed in the region with the 2nd highest family income next to Oshawa). And renting in Ottawa is ridulous — come to think of it, they should probably just stay in their paid-for home, unless they’re 80 years old and need the equity to live off of.

#197 Dr. WAYNE on 02.25.13 at 12:20 pm

#189 Dr. WAYNE on 02.25.13 at 11:34 am

This is the end of a dialogue wheich has not enhanced this blog. Further comments will be deleted without notice. — Garth

===========================

With all due respect … make a level playing field that does not deviate from your stated goal, that of ‘enhancing’ this blog. As a consequence, your DELETE key, by your own admission of a need for enhancement of this blog, should be employed much more frequently over the course of any of your postings. However … it’s your blog and it shall be respected.

#198 Bottoms_Up on 02.25.13 at 12:20 pm

#168 Buy? Curious? on 02.25.13 at 9:49 am
————————————————
That’s the problem with the news, it’s so negative and misses the 99% of good that happens every day.

#199 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 02.25.13 at 12:27 pm

As of 1998, it was reported that, as a generation, boomers had tended to avoid discussions and planning for their demise and avoided much long-term planning. However, beginning at least as early as that year, there has been a growing dialogue on how to manage aging and end-of-life issues as the generation ages. In particular, a number of commentators have argued that Baby Boomers are in a state of denial regarding their own aging and death and are leaving an undue economic burden on their children for their retirement and care. According to the 2011 Associated Press and LifeGoesStrong.com surveys:
· 60% lost value in investments because of the economic crisis
· 42% are delaying retirement
· 25% claim they’ll never retire (currently still working)
The unreported statistics also point to a higher suicide rate among Boomers.
OMG were all going to die!
Oh I almost forgot we are all going to die!

#200 Herb on 02.25.13 at 12:36 pm

#181 Seven Stars and Orion,

Show them the lack of capital appreciation and the increase in listing numbers between last year and now, and project that into the future for a couple of years. You can also point out that they are in a price class that still is moving in Ottawa. On the other hand, that price class may not decline that much over the next two years. The picture will be much clearer in a month or two.

But first I’d try a judgment call about their quality of life. By selling and investing they certainly would make good future rent, but not much more with $250 K (at 7% they would have $1,458.33 per month before taxes.) Will the difference compensate for moving from a home and area they may like into a rental apartment?

#201 John W. Warnock on 02.25.13 at 12:48 pm

Hey! Don’t for a minute think that Regina is a backwater place dominated by grey haired CCFers. These two realtors dropped a flyer in our mailbox this morning asking if they could evaluate our property. Good thing they didn’t drop this in Garth’s box!

http://www.k2realty.ca

#202 Herb on 02.25.13 at 12:48 pm

#181 Seven Stars and Orion, and #196 Bottoms_Up,

From the February Report to customers of an Ottawa RE agent I won’t link to protect a source who tells it like it is:

During the month of January 2013, members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 602 residential properties,compared to 668 in January last year. A decrease of 11 % in the total number sold.
Of these 602 sales, 466 were houses, and 136 were condominiums.

The average sales price for a house is $ 364,000. Last January’s average was $ 373,000. Down 2.5 %.
Condominium average price increased 6.1% from last year to $ 268, 604.

We are seeing the number of listed properties on the market to be 10-20% higher than last year.
This is giving buyers more choice and causing some properties to take longer to sell.

#203 charles on 02.25.13 at 12:58 pm

Gangs and barbarism? You have lost your way. — Garth
No I have not lost my way Garth. Gangs and Barbarism is Rowaldson’s opinion. You are generous enough to publish it and agreed it is fringe.
My way is laid out by men like Mr. E. Sprott, Mr. J. Rikards, Mr. J. Sinclair, Mr. E. King, Mr. T. Butler and Mr. P. Schiff to name just a few. It is clear you think the future is bright for paper investments. Good for you. Cut some slack for those who chose to follow a path of real assets with a superior track record. Your constant painting of PM investors with the doomer or bullion licker name calling makes this blog less than it could be.

There is no valid argument to hold a large PM position. — Mr. G Turner

#204 Mixed Bag on 02.25.13 at 1:03 pm

#190 Harvard Grad on 02.25.13 at 11:42 am

Today’s elderly bear little relation to the elderly of the future – Boomers in 20 years. Bad example. — Garth

Now this is interesting. Are you referring to just the economic circumstances? Or including the differences in behaviour, mentality and expectations? I’d look forward to reading your take on this.

Thanks.

#205 Gaston on 02.25.13 at 1:05 pm

#169
———
#153 and a 10y mortgage.

One question. The fees for breaking that 10y for any reason would be?????
———-
$1000. I will maybe move into a larger home, say 6-10 years from now, but I’d be able to port the 10yr mortgage. Thanks.

#206 David B on 02.25.13 at 1:06 pm

The late great Jack Benny who when questioned by Bob Hope who said to Jack ….. loosen up Jack and spend some of that money you know you can’t take it with you …. to whit Jack said: If that’s true Bob then I ant’t going. Another man once said: the smartest men are those who die owing $50 bucks ………. in any rate good to see you are still plugging away.

#207 Mrs. Riverview in Winneh on 02.25.13 at 1:09 pm

I believe you, Garth, which is why our household is following your advice. That said, I am starting to feel like the Greatest Fool. We don’t know a single family that has hit harsh reality, really. We are living as you suggest but friends think we are poor or squander money somehow because it is impolite to talk about savings but it is perfectly acceptable for morons to brag about their vacations paid for by credit. I believe you, that is why we save but it is frustrating to be treated like a fool by people who overspend.

Get better friends. — Garth

#208 COW MAN on 02.25.13 at 1:45 pm

# 119 Coho

I know that our host Garth has heard of the Niagara Escarpment Commission, The Green Belt Legislation and possibly The Region of Halton’s Natural Heritage Designation. It is just that he chooses to ignore them; as their impact is on a minority of Canadians; because they have no voting power. THose of us who try to point out that “the Emporer is wearing no clothes” are deemed to be “tin foil hat” wearers.

#209 Kilby on 02.25.13 at 1:51 pm

#189 Dr. WAYNE on 02.25.13 at 11:34 am

This is the end of a dialogue wheich has not enhanced this blog. Further comments will be deleted without notice. — Garth
______________________________________________
Thanks so much Garth, I often wondered what new readers would make of this..

#210 Westcdn on 02.25.13 at 1:57 pm

Is 2015 the turning point? I am not good at timing markets nor do I have a crystal ball but I can see trends and eventual outcomes if things remain constant. History has taught me that human nature doesn’t change and we repeat the mistakes of the past because this time is different. My future is unknown to me and I am afraid of becoming poor again (it sucks, imho). My retirement goal is to be self- funding but I may have retired too soon to go without pension benefits. There is a Scottish saying – the time to make hay is when the sun is shining. I agree it looks like cloudy weather for a long time after 2015 so I will be aggressive while QE is running.
I see no solution to debt problems other than working it off. War and revolution have been used in the past but I don’t see them as a practical solution. Working it off means lower economic growth. Since governments think they are part of the solution rather than part of the problem, then we should expect higher taxes and fewer benefits. I truly believe the wealth of a nation is its people and the more individuals are held accountable for their actions, the better. I have said before that governments are a necessary evil and it will be better if governments get out of the nanny business. I know that if you make something free, you can’t make enough of it. If I remember correctly, one half of tax returns are filed with no income taxes payable. I am sure 100% of government workers pay income tax – it is such a strange world where 50% of taxpayers pay government workers so they can pay income tax.
Governments always need something to tax to pay for themselves. Thus, despite what the future brings, there will always be a need for profitable businesses and privately employed workers. My plan for post 2015 is to have most of my investing capital in companies that pay a dividend, are managed well and provide basic necessities. I think housing and precious metals will be the worst performing assets during the debt work off. However, if war or revolution break out, gold is the go to asset. I can sum up my financial plan as expect the worst and hope for the best. On that note, I am going to buy a lottery ticket.
I also read somewhere that California firemen were among the biggest pension plan beneficiary winners as measured by contributions to received benefits (sigh).

#211 Ralph Cramdown on 02.25.13 at 2:01 pm

#203 charles — “My way is laid out by men like Mr. […]”

Goldbugger [wah waaaah waaaah]
He’s the man, the man with the leper’s touch
A prepper’s touch
Such a cold finger
Beckons you to enter his web of sin
But don’t go in

Golden words he will pour in your ear
But his lies can’t disguise what you fear
Portfolios knows when he’s kissed ‘em
It’s the kiss of death …

From Mister Goldbugger
Pretty girl, beware of his heart of gold
His hand is cold

Golden words he will pour in your ear
But his lies can’t disguise what you fear
Portfolios know when he’s kissed ‘em
It’s the kiss of death …

From Mister Goldbugger
Pretty girl, beware of his heart of gold
His hand is cold
He loves only gold
Only gold
He loves gold
He loves only gold
Only gold
He loves gold

charles, you’re entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts. Gold has been outperformed by pretty much everything except dead cash since 1971, and has provided gut-wrenching volatility besides. It’s funny to read the goldbugger’s blogs because all they do is trade conspiracy theories and encourage each other not to sell despite gut wrenching losses. If I want to, I know where to get it.

#212 Penny Henny on 02.25.13 at 2:26 pm

Dr. WAYNE is AK.
Same poster.

#213 Edmontonian on 02.25.13 at 2:48 pm

Another article with some inteersting topical points. Doing some research, I have found that over 50% of ALL SENIORS will retire with debt! How crazy is that?

I remember my grandparents telling me about how they used old bedsheets for the window covering for years until they paid off their mortgage. They bought where they could walk to work so they could share a car. They never had a dishwasher their whole life, and only replaced appliances once they broke down.

Even in ALberta where we’ve seen some of the biggest economic gains & oppurtunities for those born before the 60s, 25% of Seniors will still retire with debt.

I think it time for people to get back to the basics. Buy a much smaller house that’s under your budget (you can add a bathroom & extra bedroom later). AN learn to live with it as it is. Why do you need granite counter tops & all new stainless appliances?

To me freedom is more important than being overly materialistic. I’m willing to live with the basics to be financial free to travel, go when I want where I want & not be completely inslaved to debt to keep up to the “Jones’s”!

What is your thoughts?

#214 The Prophet Elijah on 02.25.13 at 3:01 pm

#83 einsturzende neuebauten on 02.24.13 at 9:15 pm i bought this condo five years ago for 439K. two days ago i called an agent and mentined selling it for 660K (thinking well i will sell for 600 why not). agent called an hour ago – his sister will buy it for 650. i do not know how long will this last but you see it is different here in calgary.

Take it. Fast. — Garth
———————————————————-
Garth don’t fall for this post, I call BS. Otherwise a link would have been provided.
Link please?

#215 Sebee on 02.25.13 at 3:06 pm

#133 T.O. Bubble Boy

They don’t have to live in the core. As I said, they really just have to live close to a hospital as that is a key amenity for them.

Look, there is no doubt that housing prices are out of whack in a big way. Also, no doubt in my mind that everyone in this game will do all they can to keep them that way….from weird numbers, to rosy reports, to policy. But it’s time for these 3.5M wrinklies to move on into a condo and release the stock of houses that are rotting because they can’t take care of them. Not to mention stairs.

I don’t know how many neighbourhoods I have driven through rencently where instead of a $600K price tag on some row housing nightmare, bulldozers should be offered up on the neglected stock. And in any hood, you can spot a senior owned home in a blink.

Garth keeps telling this hurd to sell now or miss out. But I think that even if they wait a bit they will still be able to pick up those condos and what they can pocket will remain stable. I think there is little argument that condos will drop way more than houses. Althought with the costs of carrying a house…who knows?

#216 Dupcheck on 02.25.13 at 3:11 pm

Garth, how much in advance do you write a post? One day, two days? I wonder how you do it, you are on top of things.

You get it when the blog is still warm, fresh and squirming. — Garth

#217 Blair on 02.25.13 at 3:22 pm

“Half of all people in their fifties have saved less than $100,000″

That is absolutely pathetic. Its the little amounts people don’t get. Start saving early, even 50 bucks a month.

I’ve leveraged up my arse with a mortgage from a poor purchase decision, but made some small life changes (reduced cable bill/cell phone, nomore restaurents, got rid of the car) and can still manage to save 200 a month. I know its not much, but will definately take me over the 100,000 assuming it stay constant (which it won’t, it will increase (I hope)) and I have a decent growth rate.

#218 jess on 02.25.13 at 3:32 pm

economic substance?
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/01/whats-inside-americas-banks/309196/

when management fee > subadvisory fee advisors
Lawsuit Shines a Harsh Light on Subadvisory Fund Fees – Bloomberg

What’s Inside America’s Banks?
By Frank Partnoy and Jesse Eisinger
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/01/whats-inside-americas-banks/309196/2/

full complaint against s&p
http://frankpartnoy.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/u.s.-v.-sp3.pdf

#219 Generally Angry But Not Unhappy Twenty Something on 02.25.13 at 3:33 pm

Fan of this (anything but) pathetic blog. As a young guy with a tasty amount of debt (read: student debts) and a paid off Toyota Point A to Point B model – I hope that the power of knowledge will overcome the power of my meagre salary.

Thank you Garth, your inputs help to form *part* of my financial opinions and sentiments.

P/S I love my boomers, they gave me every chance to succeed in life.

#220 Boomer jobs on 02.25.13 at 3:37 pm

The other scary thing is that the many boomers are unprepared for the jobs and marketplace of tomorrow. Boomers that are resistant to changes in technology and management styles will find it hard to get the salaries they want when compared to the gen x, ys who are starting to manage and create new business.

You won’t find too many boomers getting jobs at Twitter, Hootsuite, linkedin or other companies like them.

#221 AK on 02.25.13 at 3:44 pm

#213 Penny Henny on 02.25.13 at 2:26 pm

“Dr. WAYNE is AK.
Same poster.”
——————————————————–

LOL.. No, we are not one of the same, but I Thank You for the complement.

Garth can confirm that for you, If you are so inclined.

#222 AK on 02.25.13 at 3:49 pm

#218 Blair on 02.25.13 at 3:22 pm

““Half of all people in their fifties have saved less than $100,000″

That is absolutely pathetic.”
——————————————————————-

You are not kidding. Where is that stat coming from?

There are dozens of money management firms here in the GTA alone. Whose money are they managing?

#223 John Dominsas on 02.25.13 at 3:54 pm

To AK# I don’t see you giving any specific examples of a financial plan with some real numbers behind it.You are like the guys I know all my life that uses fancy charts,potential rates of returns based on some portfolio that always has an excuse of why it did not deliver.

You will be a financial nomad all your life switching between investments trying to time any market until you realize that your are more vulnerable than conservative investors facing inflation and taxes.

I will not run of money,actually the opposite I am growing at least $60,000 in my investments.Show me specific examples instead of insulting me. I never said to buy 30 year strips. The most was 21,22 years at today’s bond yields 3.87%
but when they were 4.49% or higher I said maximum 25 years.You don’t read much do you.What is A.K.

In 2000 when provincial strips were 6.50% to 6.60% at their peak nobody was saying buy bonds.Now those bonds cost at least 35% higher.The stock market is still not much higher than 13 years ago.

#224 Seriously? on 02.25.13 at 3:56 pm

Grantmi,

I know where you live, I drive the same streets and see the same development that you see and wonder at the immense effort and money spent to create “delusional mediocrity”.

Oh, I just checked out the pictures, that looks more like “Mortgage Creek” than “the Rock”, but I can confirm that the “delusion” is proceeding at full speed at the beach.

You and the group that you refer to are of the same race, so therefore your observation cannot be construed as “racist”. What you are documenting is the differences in how separate cultures conduct business.

Grantmi, it’s not hard to make a big profit when you can build for 10 bucks a s/f . Monetary positions by percentage are taken by each member of the build. The members of the group are usually related and therefore represent a closed shop. “Gora” are not welcome or needed.

“Family re-unification” supplies all of the labour that is needed on several fronts, the “Esso on the run” shop. the dump truck/ 18 wheeler/taxi operation, the blueberry farm/ produce stand/ raw land company, the construction/ marketing /janitorial services, the healthcare worker/healthcare professional industry, the security business/ govt. police jobs.

Topped off by a natural inclination/indoctrination to work collectively with the power of the temple to affect change in local, provincial and federal politics.

Grantmi, what you are witnessing is the perfect model of diversification where the human parts are fully portable to move into a different job roll as needed.

Any company or business would love to have it’s employees so well trained in different areas to be efficient and productive as called for. Today you are a plumber, tomorrow you are a truck driver and the next day you’re selling furniture.

With that much diversification and cash flow, the downside risk of having a residential property sitting unsold for a while is not severe. I have been told first hand that the profit to be realized is in the hundreds of thousand of dollars. Theoretically the developer can ride the market down a long way and still make money.

Once sold, the risk is transferred to the taxpayers.

“It’s nothing personal, it’s just business(money)”.

Wow, I just scared myself.

Seriously

#225 Tyrone Asauras on 02.25.13 at 3:57 pm

#148T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.25.13 at 2:08 am

So, the average 35-to-48 Gen X’er has all of $60k saved for retirement, and the average Boomer has $120k… if anyone can figure out how to make a lifestyle industry for people expected to live 30 years off of $200,000 or less, they will be rich.

_——______——–_______———–_________——

I may have a line on some rustic units up Attawiskapat way!

Seriously, you’ve piqued my interest here. Wondering if there’s a possibility of profitting by serving the broke boomer sector

Guessing that since there are still greater fools, you might as well chase the higher margins for a while longer, but maybe this is something for 10 years down the road when more are left without much choice.

#226 Michelle Edmonton on 02.25.13 at 3:58 pm

Love your blog. You’ve probably saved many a virgin! I just searched the MLS stats for condos here in Edmonton, Alberta. The price of condos per square foot has gone down the second lowest price level since dec. 2006! The price of condos are usually more elastic and will correct quicker than sfh, but we look like we could be in for a huge correction that’s starting here in Edmonton Realestate!

#227 Smoking Man on 02.25.13 at 4:06 pm

Ying Yang

That should be a national anthem…

One of Rogers Best….. :)

#228 Tyrone Asauras on 02.25.13 at 4:19 pm

#153Gaston on 02.25.13 at 3:24 am
……… I can lock into a 3.79% for 10 years, which is historically extremely low. I’m leaning towards doing so, based on the assumption that if i wait 2 years for my current rate to expire, the mortgage rates that that time would be at least 4.79% for a five year. ……..

——–__________————____________————

The left brain says run the numbers with a sensitivity analysis on interest rates. (anywhere from “flat” to going up 0.5% or 0.75% per year.

One scenario I’d add to your evaluation is to re-fi or blend and extend into a new five year right away. If you can get a 10 year at 3.75%, my guess is that you can get a fiver at 2.75 to 3% and save bigger for a while.

Then, five years from today, your rate will be what???

Who the hell knows, but you’ll have saved a full point worth of mortgage interest for five years, and this could be a pile of money available to whack the principal at that time……or to trade in your wife for a newer, sleeker model if that makes more sense.

. The 5 year rates

#229 John Dominsas on 02.25.13 at 4:30 pm

To A.K.
A.K. has no financial plan.This is why he is makes up things. The 9% GC strip bond example from The Man From Nantucket $1 million RRSP was to show how it was easier in the 1990’s.
I just gave a calculation that with TFSA’s it is not as difficult as he thought. An extra $315 a month is not a disaster. As for bond yields over the next 35 years rising, the 3.87% is today’s bond yield, it should go up over time and if you read everything you would realize that I would hold all bonds to maturity to achieve this equivalent $1,000,000 RRSP .Read the whole post A.K.

What is A.K. for?

#230 walltiger on 02.25.13 at 4:32 pm

If you’ve ever spent time actually thinking about it, this particular fixture of the human body is, perhaps, one of the most important in sustaining life. Without it functioning as per evolutionary design, little in life would be worthwhile/enjoyable. The fact that it can ‘double’ as a party favour and generate mirth at nearly ANY VOLUME is unique in the homo sapien world.

As far as being ‘inappropriate’ and ‘anti-social’ … speak for yourself …

This is the end of a dialogue which has not enhanced this blog. Further comments will be deleted without notice. — Garth

yes, Sir Garth, enough is enough.

#231 chickenlittle on assignment on 02.25.13 at 4:47 pm

#54 Ogopogo:

We used to spend every christmas in Kelowna in the 90s. I had always wished my parents had moved there instead of Chilliwack (ugh!). That place smelled like manure. Anyways, I heard from my cousin that Kelowna went to the dogs, but I didn’t really believe her until recently. That place used to be amazing!!! Nice scenery, weather was better than Chilly-wack, and people were nicer. What a shame!! Good thing my parents didn’t buy there after all…

#232 jess on 02.25.13 at 4:54 pm

U.S. income inequality: another stunning graph
From the United States, via David Cay Johnston of Tax Notes, an article entitled Income Inequality: 1 Inch to 5 Miles
Income Growth, 1966 to 2011
In 2011 the average income of the bottom 90 percent was just $59 more than in 1966 in real terms, depicted
here as one inch.
This graphic shows the comparable income growth of those within the top 10 percent.
http://taxprof.typepad.com/files/138tn1007.pdf (2 of 3)
world top income database
http://topincomes.g-mond.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/#Database:
http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/seminars/2012/arc/pdf/PS.pdf

#233 Smoking Man on 02.25.13 at 5:13 pm

Seems the market had gone bearish on the USA housing recovery.
Lumber futures crushed…..
Lowes got crushed on huge volume…..

Hum….????????

Never bet against a Smoking Man

#234 jess on 02.25.13 at 5:22 pm

one rung

liar loans – wasn’t the only forgery and fabrication shop
Sunday, Feb 24, 2013 07:00 AM EST
The recession was her fault
Meet Wall Street’s scapegoat, the one person to get jail time for the most massive mortgage fraud in history

David Dayen 45 Topics: Mortgage Fraud, Housing, Crime, Wall Street, Banks, Justice, Editor’s Pick
http://www.salon.com/2013/02/24/shes_paying_for_wall_streets_sins/

#235 Triplenet on 02.25.13 at 5:24 pm

#73 Raj

Should read –
4) all real estate contracts should include wording that the contract be approved by the buyers lawyer.

Keep it simple

#236 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 02.25.13 at 5:25 pm

#225 Smoking Man on 02.25.13 at 5:13 pm

Seems the market had gone bearish on the USA housing recovery.
Lumber futures crushed…..
Lowes got crushed on huge volume…..

Hum….????????

Been out in SoCal, The Valley, Sun Belt lately? The non-judicial foreclosure process used in most Western markets has allowed lenders to efficiently clear the distress!

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/two-very-different-us-housing-markets-2013-2#ixzz2LwrhA0xi

http://www.businessinsider.com/two-very-different-us-housing-markets-2013-2

#237 Tony on 02.25.13 at 5:52 pm

Re: #237 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 02.25.13 at 5:25 pm

The market always has some stupid explanation but when the market goes up big (for no reason) it usually falls at the end of the month. The converse being true for gold. Traders covering the shorts at the end of the month. Gold is in a true bear market. If you missed the short on gold short it this Thursday.

#238 AK on 02.25.13 at 6:18 pm

#230 John Dominsas on 02.25.13 at 4:30 pm

“A.K. has no financial plan.This is why he is makes up things.”

What is A.K. for?
—————————————————————-
What am I making up? I asked you why you do not diversify the other day? That’s all.

I do have a financial plan. I invest primarily in individual stocks. I also hold Corporate Bond ETF’s and a preferred share ETF. In a nutshell, I am a buy and hold Investor Warren Buffet is my idol.

A.K. Is my name.

A. Is the first initial of my first name.

K. Is the first initial of my last name.

#239 Goldfinger on 02.25.13 at 6:19 pm

Italy just smoked the markets ….heres your pic for the next post Garth !

http://www.caffenews.it/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/corna-berlusconi.jpg

#240 PERPLEXED on 02.25.13 at 6:34 pm

LOL.

It all looks pretty doom and gloom unless you’re in the beer and wine market. They were up 3.2% Y/Y.

SEE STATS HERE

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/trad42a-eng.htm

#241 AK on 02.25.13 at 6:34 pm

To John Dominsas.
———————————-
My latest purchases.

I have purchased the following so far in 2013 for my TFSA, RRSP and non registered Canadian and U.S. accounts.

T.HLF
T.BAM.A
T.GEI
T.XPF(ETF)
N.USB
N.ARI
N.AGNC
N.SDIV(ETF)
N.GREK(ETF)
N.IRET
N.MGM

#242 sciencemonkey on 02.25.13 at 6:43 pm

I’m an investing neophyte, but even I can see a flaw in the bond only investing plan being advocated. It has worked quite well up to recently because interest rates have happened to go from very high to very low over the last few decades.

Imagine if interest rates went from 3% to 20% over the course of two decades. Inflation would destroy the 3% bonds.

#243 Devore on 02.25.13 at 7:06 pm

Gold owners, turn that frown upside down! CDN plunges to 0.97.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CAD&to=USD&view=1M

#244 TurnerNation on 02.25.13 at 7:27 pm

VIX up 34% today.
You say you want a revolution?

#245 Doug in London on 02.25.13 at 7:37 pm

Wow, the state of most Boomer’s finances is terrible if only 27% feel they can retire by age 66. I can understand how low income people, especially if living in expensive city like Toronto or Vancouver, could be in this situation but what about higher income Boomers? There were some AWESOME buying opportunities for buying equity funds in 1998, 2002 and early 2003, and the best one of all in early 2009 when waste management companies were being paid to haul away dirt cheap equities. Between those lows were times like 1999-2000, and 2006-07, time to take some profits in equities and move into bond funds. It worked for me, even though I invested in those crappy mutual funds with the ripoff high management fees, to accumulate wealth. Why didn’t more Boomers take advantage of these great opportunities?

#246 Macrath on 02.25.13 at 7:39 pm

#243 sciencemonkey

You are correct. All the financial literature available recommend buying strip bonds in a sheltered account when rates are very high and dropping. Buying them in a zero interest rate environment is a recipe for disaster, even if you plan to keep them forever. As A. K. has been so graciously trying to explain.

Notice- there are no strip bond mutual funds or ETFs .

#247 Ronaldo on 02.25.13 at 7:42 pm

#148 T.O. Bubble Boy –

”… if anyone can figure out how to make a lifestyle industry for people expected to live 30 years off of $200,000 or less, they will be rich.”

Warren Buffet has it figured out. He just bought H.J. Heinz for $28 billion. Seems he is expecting retired boomers to change their diets going forward.

#248 ES 339 on 02.25.13 at 7:42 pm

“By two years from now our built-in demographic time bomb would cause real estate values to crumble and financial markets to rise. So far, I’m right on track.”

So demographics will sink real estate… and I thought it was ZIRP, liar loans, and house horny Gen whatever’s!

Please give me a break on the stock market! Where do you think they’d be without $80 Billion of Bennie Bucks given to the banks to play with every month, and nowhere to go but the stock market (bond rates can’t go any lower, there’s no money in lending, and Ben has his agents on a commodities raiding cycle just to be sure)?

Even nefarious hints of hawkish talk at the Fed tanks the market (another commodity control scam)… where do you think it’ll go if he ever tries to unwind all those bonds?

#249 John Dominsas on 02.25.13 at 8:07 pm

To Science Monkey #243

Imagine credit card rates dropped from 30%,20% to 3%.You sound like the Lotto 649 commercial IMAGINE!

#250 Bill Gable on 02.25.13 at 8:16 pm

Scientists claim 72 is the new 30!

Better prepare for a LONGER retirement/ work arc, than even, perhaps, Mr. Turner has been talking about.

Link: http://tinyurl.com/bjbvn8k

#251 John Dominsas on 02.25.13 at 8:17 pm

To A.K. #239,242

You still did not give specific numbers on how your financial purchases will work out. We live in a world of numbers. The Higher numbers in my accounts means I am better off. You still are using generalities and speaking points of the same old financial jargon.

Diversify,balance your portfolio,keep expenses low etc.The numbers,the figures. What have you achieved with your financial life. You remember when mutual funds were the best investments. Income trusts were the best thing since sliced bread.Now, you like ETF’s of all kinds.Wait until the fees go from a range of 0.30% to 0.85% to over 1.25% over the next few years.

#252 John Dominsas on 02.25.13 at 8:20 pm

Warren Buffet is your idol. My idol is myself. I am not fixated with movie stars,so called financial Guru’s. They are all distractions like you A.K.

#253 First Time Poser on 02.25.13 at 8:24 pm

To #25 Mouldy in Nanaimo on 02.24.13 at 7:05 pm

Scrap that cable/satellite package and get yourself a $50 antenna. For the full experience also hook your tv up to a computer, get a wireless computer remote control, download XBMC, with a “1channel” addon and you will truly have TV on demand!

#254 AK on 02.25.13 at 8:27 pm

#240 Goldfinger on 02.25.13 at 6:19 pm

“Italy just smoked the markets ….”

——————————————————————

The market needed an excuse to correct.

Moote point. Germany runs the show in Europe. Next…

#255 Asse on 02.25.13 at 8:28 pm

Some obsessive boys here. Not that there’s anything wrong with that:p

#256 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.25.13 at 8:29 pm

-
#141 Retired Boomer – WI — “What all of these have as a common denominator is the feeling the future holds little chance for them.” — Possibly one cause for the explosion in suicides? This is besides the military, where suicides are epidemic.

#158 Smoking Man — “Insanity is not acting crazy, insanity is when you act normal….” — Thank DgO I’m not normal! What a sickening, revolting thought!

#195 :) :( Ying Yang — “They could speak clearly, readily, profoundly on everything; till their thoughts were caught in the breakers of their delusions and went to pieces there, were dispersed and swamped in that furious and terrible sea of fogs and squalls which is called MADNESS.” — The name Ted Bundy springs to mind. Even the judge said he was such a clever person, he could have replaced him (the judge) in his chair.
*
UK Pound Diving off a cliff, Financial Stuff Buying opportunities appear on the horizon as markets tank plus More junk; University of Texas takes delivery of US$1 bln. in physical gold; KFC Buckets of Laundry “The number one thing that could stand between you and freedom just might be your food supply.”; 7:11 clip JPM’s e-mails; 16:43 clip Inflation; JPM Chase Different.
*
7:48 clip Monsanto’s corn and other crops invade Mexico, and Feedlots closing “The problem isn’t that there was a drought so much as the fact that GMO corn, on which cows are fed, is far less resistant to drought than the natural variety.” wrh.com; 54:11 doc. MD explains how ObombaCare is ripping ordinary folks off; GW really sux; ISPs Six strikes and yer out (downloading); Russia – US Rhetoric for now; Gun Control Opposition growing; Oklahoma Creationism / Evolutionism. Dark ages again? Staying Safe on FB A guide to; Wall St.’s 1% Tax Being implemented or not? Monsanto, Agenda 21 and UN Sustainability scam; Role Reversal Interesting question.

#257 Mocha on 02.25.13 at 8:33 pm

I wonder why that other poster had to lie about gold being outperformed by everything except cash since the early 70’s…

If he thinks that gold is a bad investment, fair enough, but lying about it instead of giving valid reasons (ex: it has peaked, overvalued, etc…) is just plain sad.

Garth, your cultists often take your opinions to the extreme. If you suddenly started telling your readers to buy gold, these same guys would be making up BS and name-calling anyone who thought that gold was not a wise choice.

#258 John Dominsas on 02.25.13 at 8:35 pm

To A.K. #242
Since you like ETF’s so much, your favorite show should be Berman’s Call on BNN.Think about it A.K.

#259 Dr. Hoof-Hearted on 02.25.13 at 8:41 pm

Re Kelowna (Pogo’town)

Should be clear by now that Pogo’ town was built via the HAM- fuelled diaspora.

Once the HAM shrinkage happened….Pogo’town is toast.

Or, conversely if Pogo’town is slow…then means HAM couver is also toast.

Bon appetit !

#260 Ralph Cramdown on 02.25.13 at 8:53 pm

#255 Mocha — “I wonder why that other poster had to lie about gold being outperformed by everything except cash since the early 70′s”

That would have been me. Show us all the data if you disagree. Don’t forget to include income or dividend reinvestment for assets that pay. Don’t bother starting from anywhere but 1971.

#261 AK on 02.25.13 at 8:56 pm

#259 John Dominsas on 02.25.13 at 8:35 pm

“To A.K. #242
Since you like ETF’s so much, your favorite show should be Berman’s Call on BNN.Think about it A.K.”
—————————————————————–

Less than 10% of my portfolio consists of ETF’s. As I already told you, I mostly invest in individual stocks.

And Larry Berman is a Bullshit Artist. You should know that already.

#262 AK on 02.25.13 at 8:59 pm

#253 John Dominsas on 02.25.13 at 8:20 pm

“Warren Buffet is your idol. My idol is myself. I am not fixated with movie stars,so called financial Guru’s. They are all distractions like you A.K.”
—————————————————————-

Ha, Ha, you are a funny guy. But I still like you.

#263 Kaganovich on 02.25.13 at 9:31 pm

255 AK

Italy’s fate is hardly a moot point to Germany, in fact none of the Mediterranean countries are moot to Germany, especially their banks.

#264 Asse on 02.25.13 at 9:38 pm

Read Warren Buffets biography. Not his autobiography Snowball. Can’t stand autobiographies. Makes you appreciate the true nature of insurance industry. Trumps biography was interesting as well, but that concerned marketing and gambling. Trumps corporations have been broke many a time, but aside from the first time always with other people’s money. As an aside, Politics of Ambition was excellent as well.
Don’t know any boomers that are hurting, outside of work that is.

#265 John Dominsas on 02.25.13 at 9:52 pm

To Macrath #247, A.K.
Have you noticed that most Canadians that sipped the KOOL AID and believed it tasted great, like buying houses to big that they could afford,buying mutual funds with annual 2%-4% MERS, investing in stocks and the most recent 2 or 3 years explosion of buying ETF’s.

Don’t forget the low interest rate trap to get Canadians to think that they are winning financially by paying 3% mortgages, using credit cards to get air miles,points, using line of credits to go on vacation or worse borrowing on their house like an ATM machine to buy risky investments in the late 1990’s TECH CRASH, 2001-2003 CRASH, 2007-2009 CRASH.

The new trend not only coming to Canada but is spreading globally is reverse mortgages. Buy a primary residence that is income tax free but when you add up all yearly expenses,property taxes and costs of buying and selling it you are left with peanuts.Look at the high fees to set up a reverse mortgage and the much higher annual interest rate they compound yearly to deplete your house’s value.

The worse possible time to get a reverse mortgage with Canadian housing values dropping 30%-40% easily in Vancouver and according to Madani from Capital Economics that an average 25% drop in Canadian housing values over the next few years.

My investments at least give me a cashflow and I have more than enough money for my family. No one still gave me numbers at what they achieved.All talk no proof of performance. This is why your posts are so vague with no specifics.

#266 Anon on 02.25.13 at 10:20 pm

Baby boomers have entitlement issues, leaving the younger generations poor

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-21/stanley-druckenmiller-we-have-entitlement-problem-and-one-day-feds-hamster-wheel-wil

#267 John Dominsas on 02.25.13 at 10:26 pm

To Macrath #247, A.K.
I made a mistake I meant to say like buying houses too big they could not afford.

The comment that you Macrath said that notice there are no strip bond mutual funds or ETF’s is once again a simple comment without substance. There are no strip bond mutual funds or ETF’s because most people don’t see the actual fees taken from their account balances. They see only the NAV=net asset value after all fees have been taken out. ETF’s work the same way.

The MER’s or annual fees are embedded in the NAV.Investors who buy strip bonds of any type corporate,government are not receiving any semi-annual interest like regular coupon paying bonds.All the interest is compounded and they are bought at a discount to mature at a fixed known value.

So, investors would have to pay these annual fees if a strip bond mutual fund or ETF existed out of pocket from another source like a cash account or selling other investments.Investors would never agree to such annual fees,terms and conditions.

Toady, you pay commission on the discounted value only when you buy and pay commission on the market value when you sell. No investors would wait 10,20 years for their money and pay annual fees much more than a strip bond investor pays now.This is why strip bond mutual funds and ETF’s would not catch on with investors today.They can’t sneak in the fees.

#268 John Dominsas on 02.25.13 at 10:36 pm

Strip bond investors toady will pay commission on the discounted value only when they buy and pay commission on the market value only when they sell.No investors would wait 10,20 years for their money and pay annual fees much more than strip bond investors pay now.This is why strip bond mutual funds or ETF’s would not catch on with investors today.Mutual fund companies and ETF providers could not sneak in their annual fees.

#269 Macrath on 02.25.13 at 11:10 pm

#269 John Dominsas
No investors would wait 10,20 years for their money
———————————————————————–

John this is exactly the point, I`ll probably be dead in 20 years. I want my interest, dividends and capital gains monthly and quarterly like most investors. To spend or reinvest .

If you want to wait for your money that’s fine, but try to appreciate that others are not to keen on a 10 or 20 year cycle.

#270 Mic D'angelo on 02.26.13 at 12:09 am

Macrath#270

You selected only the portion of my comment that suited you without the full meaning and context.Others can read the whole post so by you selecting only the portion that you like does not mean it’s true or fact. If you don’t care what happens to your capital or principal in 10,20 years than why do you and others like A.K. and so called financial experts,analysts,advisers always talk about the long term rate of return, performance and say take the long view when things crash.

Don’t complain about annual costs,fees after 10,20 years and you don’t have enough money to keep up with your standard of living.They can’t charge annual fees with money that compounds for 10,20 years and becomes a lump sum in the future. They can’t sneak in their fees every year with your money which they have no access to like mutual funds and ETF’s. This was the main point.

If you don’t care about your money in 10,20 years than give your money to your ETF company,mutual fund company, financial adviser when you die and don’t complain about the value of your investments and the high annual fees you are paying every year. A 1.5% annual fee compounded for 20 years =34.6855% of your money gone.

Since you don’t care about what happens in 10,20 years take all your investments for example $500,000/20 years=$25,000 a year. When it is all gone just don’t care. You don’t need financial planning because you don’t care about the future in 10,20 years.You have simple minded answers for everything. It’s too bad life is not that easy SMART ALEC!Good bye

You are a fraud, posting here under two names to support your argument. Your credibility is lower than your bond yield. — Garth

#271 John Dominsas on 02.26.13 at 12:10 am

Macrath#270

You selected only the portion of my comment that suited you without the full meaning and context.Others can read the whole post so by you selecting only the portion that you like does not mean it’s true or fact. If you don’t care what happens to your capital or principal in 10,20 years than why do you and others like A.K. and so called financial experts,analysts,advisers always talk about the long term rate of return, performance and say take the long view when things crash.

Don’t complain about annual costs,fees after 10,20 years and you don’t have enough money to keep up with your standard of living.They can’t charge annual fees with money that compounds for 10,20 years and becomes a lump sum in the future. They can’t sneak in their fees every year with your money which they have no access to like mutual funds and ETF’s. This was the main point.

If you don’t care about your money in 10,20 years than give your money to your ETF company,mutual fund company, financial adviser when you die and don’t complain about the value of your investments and the high annual fees you are paying every year. A 1.5% annual fee compounded for 20 years =34.6855% of your money gone.

Since you don’t care about what happens in 10,20 years take all your investments for example $500,000/20 years=$25,000 a year. When it is all gone just don’t care. You don’t need financial planning because you don’t care about the future in 10,20 years.You have simple minded answers for everything. It’s too bad life is not that easy SMART ALEC!Good bye

#272 Anon on 02.28.13 at 1:37 pm

Dedicated to a contributor somewhere called Kill the Boomers

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-21/stanley-druckenmiller-we-have-entitlement-problem-and-one-day-feds-hamster-wheel-wil