What can go wrong?

young woman driving on highway while reading / writing text on smart phone.

In 2007, as it was imploding, 16.5% of California’s economy was related to real estate. Houses in LA, California, Laguna Beach and San Diego had never cost more. But in places like Stockton, an exurb of SanFran, the crumble was starting. Today Stockton is bankrupt.

The results are obvious. “The middle class is hollowed out,” said Governor Jerry Brown in delivering his latest austerity budget a few weeks ago. In fact, 1% of the people there now have 22% of the wealth, and 40% of all students are classified as ‘low income.’

This is what can happen when average people get house horny, borrow to buy inflated real estate, and believe it goes up forever. Like in BC. In fact just last week provincial labour minister Pat Bell said at least 6,000 of the latest 16,000 job losses in BC were due to “a real estate slowdown in the Lower Mainland.”

But it’s not just delusional British Columbia.

On Friday, when half the country was being buried in two feet of snow, the latest (January) housing starts numbers were released. They sucked. Down 19% from December, and plunged by 30% from levels of last summer.

In fact, starts have been declining almost every month, and by significant amounts – as condo projects in Toronto are abandoned and sales of single-family homes evaporate. Remember what I told you a few weeks ago – new house sales in Toronto (condos plus low-rise) crashed 52.1% in December from a year earlier.

But won’t they recover later this year? Not according to the issuance of residential building permits. They tumbled another 11% in December from the month before, and have fallen by a fifth in just sixty days. These are serious numbers. If I were in the building business, I’d be shopping for a new job. But not as a realtor.

Allan specializes in plaster work, drywall and stucco, with a shop just south of Vancouver, four trucks and a crew of 14. Well, until about last August. “There are three of us still working,” he told me on the weekend. “I’m eating, but my guys are completely screwed. Nobody’s coming back on the ticket for a long time.”

These days it’s estimated about 8% of the entire Canadian economy is comprised of direct real estate activity. When you combine that with real estate-related finance, insurance and renting, the share jumps to 22% – or six points higher than California before the crash. By comparison, all the manufacturing in the nation amounts to 13% of the economy, while mining and oil and gas combined total 4%. Of course, when people stop buying and building houses, the dominoes topple, which is why economists are a bit whacked by these latest numbers. Experience in other countries shows us there’s a direct line connecting lower housing sales and higher unemployment.

In short, real estate is poised to slam economic growth. Not good, considering growth in the final months of 2012 was only around 1%. Some economists, like David Madani, of Capital Economics, think the evolving housing bust has already reduced growth by about a quarter point. Sounds tiny, but it equates to tens of thousands of jobs, and as many troubled families. Madani was quoted on the weekend saying he thinks growth in the first quarter of 2013 could actually be reduced by half. Yup, because of real estate.

So what?

So six years after the US started showing us what happens when house lust is encouraged, we’re apparently on the same path. Goosing an economy by dropping rates and lending standards, encouraging debt and rewarding people for buying stuff they can’t afford, is hardly a strategy to be proud of. But those were the main planks of F’s ‘economic action plan’ – measures he’s since been throwing overboard as the consequences crystallize.

Second, all those people who stray into this blog to say their neighbour’s house just sold for above asking so Garth Turner is an idiot, may be right. But not about the real estate part. There’s absolutely no doubt where we’re headed. Over-extended people don’t borrow more to buy trophy houses, no matter how cheap money is. Tumbling sales and soggy prices don’t reverse just ‘cuz it’s April. A society where seven in ten families already own homes is not exactly an under-developed market. Most people are loaded with debt, have disturbingly little in liquid assets and keep 80% of their TFSA money in savings accounts.

Face it. Real estate ownership’s no longer a financial strategy. And in those places where it’s turning illiquid, housing’s a risk if you have too much of your net worth tied up. So the two groups in greatest peril are the equityless, mortgaged condo kids about to lose it all, and the house-rich, asset-poor Boomers in particle board McMansions they thought were retirement plans.

If you can’t see this looming, find another blog. You’ll be back.

169 comments ↓

#1 gladiator on 02.10.13 at 10:07 pm

Hello Dr. WAYNE!

#2 stop lying on 02.10.13 at 10:08 pm

must be top 10 right here.

what do people think about lot premiums, is a cul-de-sac worth 80k? raveen worth 100k?

#3 Mr Happy!! on 02.10.13 at 10:14 pm

I am part of the 1%. I listened and learned back in the 80′s. Many didn’t…..um….about 99%…

Save your breath Garth….the 99% will never learn….

#4 My thoughts on 02.10.13 at 10:18 pm

The market seems stagnant to me. House prices are being lowered… Slowly. The same houses that have been on the market for 2 plus years are back on. I’m amazed every day when I see houses I thought sold…. Didn’t sell. Some people got lucky and got out in time. It definitely looks potentially ugly out there… And it’s only February!

#5 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.10.13 at 10:18 pm

So much for the general rule where Canada’s economy trails the U.S. economy by 1 year… I guess having near-zero interest rates for 5 years and lax lending standards for 7 years (0/40 started in 2006) threw the economic cycle on its ear for a while.

#6 giacomo bill on 02.10.13 at 10:23 pm

second again! woo

#7 Mithan on 02.10.13 at 10:23 pm

Oh come on Garth.

Real Estate can only go up. It is YOU who is deluded!

;)

#8 My thoughts on 02.10.13 at 10:26 pm

My thoughts for the realtors to understand why people in higher income brackets are holding off buying. Property taxes… Houses are so over inflated in cost… Property taxes are outrageous as a result. If you buy in the low at least you could argue for lower property taxes with your purchase and sale agreement. With some purchases ie. a high end car… You cannot do much about the insurance other then drive it minimally on paper. Property taxes need to correct. It’s what will drive boomers and first time buyers out of their properties. Even if you outright own your home… Property taxes can be prohibitive to keeping it.

#9 Rob on 02.10.13 at 10:28 pm

Hard to imagine how people will deal with this. By the time they realize, they will do what most people do. Buy at the top and sell at the bottom.

#10 Goldie on 02.10.13 at 10:30 pm

Garth,

I’ve been away for a bit and have just caught up on reading all of your recent entries. Although it was several posts ago, I would just like to let you know that your quip about Brad Lamb talking to his imaginary entourage was one of the most hilarious lines I have yet read here.

Every modern hero needs their arch-villian. Could it be that you have found yours? He even has his own logo.

#11 gladiator on 02.10.13 at 10:32 pm

Sorry, Garth. Couldn’t resist to greet our blog hero number 2.
About things looming – I would suggest that readers of your blog, especially US citizens read this article:

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/rise-praetorian-class

Interesting times ahead, indeed…

#12 Good authority on 02.10.13 at 10:35 pm

If you have a small or no mortgage, at least the banksters are not going to take half your house or your GIC overnight.

How many banksters are under investigation, charged or in jail after the last ripoff in 2008 >>zip.

Great system >> burned in 89>> burned in tech wreck>>burned in 2008.

At least we learned not to stick our neck out no matter how good it looked in RE.

Too bad, so very sad to those up to their eyeballs in RE debt.
The “slow melt” will be pure hell.

#13 Mister Obvious on 02.10.13 at 10:36 pm

No friends of mine in Greater Dampcouver have sold above asking. I think “asking” is going to have to change drastically.

I know of at least six associates who have either given up trying to sell after many months of trying or they have fallen into near depression about their prospects.

Its getting quite serious now. And disconcerting.

#14 shanks on 02.10.13 at 10:37 pm

hey
isnt Stockton also one of the most violent cities in the states now?
I can say for sure that all that pumped up housing market in CAli sure made for some great tv…

#15 ClaudiusEmperor on 02.10.13 at 10:37 pm

RE in CA is to toasted.

We might not see these prices in 20 years as absolute values.

The impact on GDP would be devistating. It could be reduction of real GDP in 10-15 %, not counting the inflation.

#16 ClaudiusEmperor on 02.10.13 at 10:39 pm

Please dismantle CMHC.

I am sick and tyred of paying for somebodyelses mistakes.

#17 Uwinsome on 02.10.13 at 10:40 pm

“I am part of the 1%. I listened and learned back in the 80′s. Many didn’t…..um….about 99%…”

Hey Mr. Happy. You’re kind of an arrogant douche. Too bad you didn’t learn how to be humble in the 80s.

#18 AK on 02.10.13 at 10:43 pm

#12 Good authority on 02.10.13 at 10:35 pm

“Great system >> burned in 89>> burned in tech wreck>>burned in 2008. ”

Warren Buffett didn’t get burned. What does that tell you?

#19 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.10.13 at 10:47 pm

House Porn (HGTV) will now have direct links to house listings on Zillow…

Zillow Partners With HGTV to Boost Listings:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/02/10/zillow-partners-with-hgtv-to-boost-listings.aspx

And then, Zillow also launched a home reno marketplace (“digs”) to get you hooked on upgrading:
http://www.zillow.com/digs/

When will this come to Canada and kill mls.ca?

#20 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 02.10.13 at 10:50 pm

#12 – Good – here’s one for you: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-god-made-a-banker-2013-02-06

#21 Tom from Mississauga on 02.10.13 at 11:03 pm

When real estate falls there is momentum behind it.

#22 DR. WAYNE on 02.10.13 at 11:04 pm

#1 gladiator on 02.10.13 at 10:07 pm

Hello Dr. WAYNE!

=================

I’m conflicted … what should I do … Uh …

OK, OK … “Hello gladiator” … jeeezzz … not like me at all …

#23 Kurt on 02.10.13 at 11:04 pm

#1 gladiator

Thanks, dude! Loved it!

#24 Muddy Waters on 02.10.13 at 11:09 pm

“….By comparison, all the manufacturing in the nation amounts to 13% of the economy, while mining and oil and gas combined total 4%…….”
—————–

I’m thinking maybe the numbers above are backwards. Wherever I go, the Bay, Sears, Zellers, Walmart, Canadian Tire, etc., the only manufacturer labels I see are three words: “Made in China”. We manufacture very little in this country any more in the way of consumer goods.

The TSX now swings largely on resources and banking. We are now masters at being hewers of wood, drawers of oil, refiners of rock, and prostitutes to the Big Six.

#25 AwesomeBrian on 02.10.13 at 11:09 pm

sure would like to hear more on investments…much much less on real estate! We get it…don’t buy real estate!

#26 salonist on 02.10.13 at 11:10 pm

oakville
the condo cranes are going up.kerr and speers,dundas and 6th line.
extensive construction projects north of dundas
tons of tear-downs
trade trucks every where.
just sayin.

#27 ChickenLittle on 02.10.13 at 11:15 pm

“Most people are loaded with debt (and) have disturbingly little in liquid assets” (Turner, 2013).

I find that I have to remind myself of one important fact: there may be a lot of people buying things that I cannot afford, but neither can they.

When I see 1 million dollar homes being bought on HGTV by couples no older than myself (33), I sometimes feel a bit envious. Then I remember the bills they have to pay, and suddenly I am alright!

They say that the gap between classes is widening. Yes it is. Now we have two new classes: the class that is debt up to their eyeballs and the class that is not.

BTW: I used to live in BC and I never understood why they used stucco there. Stucco is for a dry climate, not a wannabe semitropical-rainforest climate. It is also the only place I know of that actually compares its “hours of sunshine” to that of other places. SILLY!

#28 TorontoVid on 02.10.13 at 11:16 pm

Today I drove around east York area in Toronto and I saw many houses for sale and many open houses. One house was sold last October 2012 for $370k flipped and in January listed for $530 … No offers, no sale so now in February price lowered to $499k not sold still http://m.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=12787541 …. Another open house in east York and real estate agent said that they expecting offers on Tuesday starting price $329k … On question why so low she said that house was marihuana grow-up but they expecting bidding war lol http://m.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=12804498 so how much people have to be horny to give even $100k for trash like this? Can’t wait to see bubble burst in Toronto and prices get to normal as now looks like whole city on Cialis or Viagra or at least some Chinese herbal pill

#29 Calgaryboomer on 02.10.13 at 11:25 pm

Calgary is just on fire right now. Anything decent is selling for top dollar, a lot higher than last year. This could go on until all those newcomers find a home and all the builders flood the market with new houses. I think Calgary (all Alberta?) will do the opposite of the rest of the country for the rest of this year. And as long as oil price is stable, I think by next year, price increase and sales may slow down, but won’t correct. But right now the market looks like early 2007…and same prices!

I dealt with Calgary last week. Look it up. — Garth

#30 Garth, you are rigt... on 02.10.13 at 11:26 pm

…as usual. I was.am right as well. Damn it!! all those stupid people who do not know it. The problem is right timing. If I bought in 2007 (which I could), my return would be 100% gross free of tax. My financial assets did not give me that.

#31 Dr. Hoof Hearted on 02.10.13 at 11:26 pm

Yeah….

A guy in BC won a trip to the Super Bowl…got to the border….an old “possession charge” from 30+ years ago disqualified him from entering the US at the NORTHERN border.

However, the US is looking to give amnesty to millions of illegal aliens the majority of which come through the porous SOUTHERN border with Mexico.

Do you folks understand what is REALLY going on ?

#32 Jounce on 02.10.13 at 11:29 pm

Is Minster Flaherty’s health drama our coincident final leading market indicator? His steroid swollen face proffers an uncanny augury of the last stage of an equally out-of- control, steroidal, and terminal Canadian real estate market?

Less ominous and far less strange omens have been encountered. Is it a portent of the end of his political career, and a coincidental marker of the final demise of the flatulent national real estate era, the end of the roaring twenty-tweens?

That was ugly. The man has a disease. Stand down. — Garth

#33 Jon B on 02.10.13 at 11:34 pm

Has there been any other period in time when borrowing large sums of money was generally regarded as no-big-deal-all-the-kids-are-doing-it? The debt-ridden masses that are short on equity while living large are under the influence of powerful forces; some corporate while others are forces of society and peers. I think the feds will utilize every tool they have to postpone the personal debt crisis for as long as possible. RE is only one component of this crisis.

#34 not 1st on 02.10.13 at 11:38 pm

Instead of fostering investment and innovation, we have built an economy based on selling non-productive liabilities (i.e homes) to each other. No wonder this is going to end bad.

#35 Karie on 02.10.13 at 11:40 pm

@2 Stop Lying – My friend just bought a new house last year where ravine lots were $100,000 premium, so she didn’t buy one but bought elsewhere on the same street. Our house is on a ravine but when we bought in 2004 the seller told us they paid $15,000 extra for ravine lot.

When we bought our most recent house, it was 4x our income but now the homes we would look to move into our 8x our income at least. Personally, can’t do it.

I do think that not everyone buying a million dollar house is in debt – everyone’s situation is different – they may have built equity in prior houses, have an inheritance, high paying jobs, help from parents – you never know!

#36 Butch on 02.10.13 at 11:40 pm

Hopefully this is the year of the crash – if not… off to the USA.

Amazon keeps offering me jobs, higher pay, lower cost of real-estate… Family can only keep you in Canada for so long.

I wonder how many other young people are thinking the same thing? Sick of renting.

#37 Gunboat denier on 02.10.13 at 11:41 pm

24 Muddy – link for you re gdp by sector. Garth is correct

http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/cis-sic.nsf/eng/h_00013.html#vla2b

Reallt enjoy that “Folk Singer” album. Thanks.

#38 The Man From Nantucket on 02.10.13 at 11:43 pm

#30 Dr. Hoof Hearted on 02.10.13 at 11:26 pm
…….….an old “possession charge” from 30+ years ago disqualified him from entering the US at the NORTHERN border.

Drugs are bad, mmmmkay.

Assault rifles, on the other hand,………

#39 ozy - pleasure is expensive nowadays on 02.10.13 at 11:43 pm

Pleasure is expensive nowadays, hhh, if u must buy, make sure u can sell to the “1%” referenced above in article, azk yourself would they be interested?

Copyright Ozy: The right man in the right place…

#40 Calgaryboomer on 02.10.13 at 11:44 pm

“I dealt with Calgary last week. Look it up. — Garth”

Yeah I read it, that’s why I wrote what I did. You say buyers are on drugs and it won’t last. And reading this blog last year, someone in Calgary might have sold low and missed this years opportunity. TO and Van went up for years before they crashed! Calgary was still reeling from GFC so builders were gun shy about having too much inventory, so we didn’t have any overbuilding. I think we need to get to a situation like the other cities where we get a glut of houses/condos before we slow down or reverse. I guess you can say that this won’t last but you have to give a timeline if you wanna be a prophet because a broken clock is correct twice a day too!

Calgary: home of original thought. — Garth

#41 45north on 02.10.13 at 11:44 pm

But it’s not just delusional British Columbia.

Ben Rabidoux reports that in Montreal for January 2013, sales are down, inventory is up. Sales are always down in January but they are down from every other January except 2009. If sales double between now and April, it will be a bad year. A very bad year.

#42 Ralph Cramdown on 02.10.13 at 11:44 pm

#24 Muddy Waters — Wherever I go, the Bay, Sears, Zellers, Walmart, Canadian Tire, etc., the only manufacturer labels I see are three words: “Made in China”. We manufacture very little in this country any more in the way of consumer goods.

True, but we’ve got the Detroit three, Honda, Toyota, Celestica, Bombardier, Pratt & Whitney, Magna, others I’ve likely forgotten, as well as a number of small and medium sized outfits. People think the US doesn’t make anything anymore, either, but they’ve got GE, Boeing and the like. These are the companies that have high end jobs. I’m not saying the trend is good, but there’s a lot more high value add in the North American manufacturing sector than the Wal-Mart consumer notices.

#43 Furst on 02.10.13 at 11:46 pm

#22 DR. WAYNE on 02.10.13 at 11:04 pm

I’m conflicted … what should I do … Uh …

OK, OK … “Hello gladiator” … jeeezzz … not like me at all …
_________________________________
Disappointing Dr. Shame. You’re getting soft in your old age….

#44 Freedom First on 02.10.13 at 11:48 pm

Thank you for continuing to teach me humility, tact, and kindness Garth ( Garth-who confesses he may be an idiot, but not about RE). Your tact and kind delivery of the truth that Canada is now in the eye of a sh!t storm is a lesson I need on a regular basis, as I can easily have my ego get out of whack and over sized.

When I see the mess my fellow Canadians have leveraged themselves into, in RE/helocs, Loc, 7-8 year car loans, credit card debt, pay day loans everywhere you look, my mind can judgementally think very lowly of the people who knowingly perpetrated this coming nightmare, and also of the willing people about to be financially de-nutted. Garth, you help me come back to earth, and realize I never had high expectations of any of them to begin with. And with this, I can just calmly observe events as they unfold, and continue to enjoy your commentary, knowing, not all of us have screwed ourselves. Thank you Garth! May you continue to write this worthy blog.

#45 economictsunami on 02.10.13 at 11:49 pm

As I pulled into Union Station yesterday I couldn’t help but notice all of the colourful cranes that dot the skyline. With all these new condos coming online, Toronto has become the epitome of core – over saturation.

I will be chugging into Central Station, Montreal in a couple of weeks; I wonder what I’ll see along the way?…

#46 ozy - to ClaudiusEmperor on 02.10.13 at 11:52 pm

Dear former Roman Empire Top Citizen,

The post-collonial kanatian system is not run by roman-law of straighfortness, we have no swords per say, no gladiators. BREAD and CIRCUS rule we follow, the bottom 99% are fooled about all the things we want (mass-media circus replaced by realy shows) and we give them Genetically Modified food cheapo, this is how we RULE in XXI century. Sic transit gloria mundi.

Ameno

======================
ClaudiusEmperor on 02.10.13 at 10:39 pm
Please dismantle CMHC.

I am sick and tyred of paying for somebodyelses mistakes

#47 Edmontonian Here on 02.11.13 at 12:14 am

There is a real cooling in the Market here in EDMONTON ,as I’ve been told by a few people that they need to do tens of thousands $$$ in upgrades in order to even be able to consider selling. In calgary a friend just listed a gorgeous huge one bedroom loft she bought in 2006 for $270,000 (it’s been listed for 12 days, parking, laundry in-suite, huge ceilings, large balcony… no one has even looks at it yet, and she’s desperate to ”GET OUT” or face bankruptcy. She’s looking to just break even with late 2006 purchase-I’m not sure she can any more! :-(
Great central location housing that would catch you $900,000 in Vancouver, $750,000 in T.O.(but going down of course). Now available in Edmonton for $204,500! :-)
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?&PropertyId=12733924&PidKey=-1325339118

#48 squidly77 on 02.11.13 at 12:14 am

While the rest of Canada has seen real estate prices skyrocket since 2007, on average 23% higher, trust some Bull ball hanging pickup truck owning Calgarian has to say.

Calgaryboomer on 02.10.13 at 11:25 pm

I think by next year, price increase and sales may slow down, but won’t correct. But right now the market looks like early 2007…and same prices!

Wow! Calgary house prices are back at 2007 levels, whocoodaknownnn!!
Sometimes it’s embarrassing being a Calgarian.

#49 Canadian Watchdog on 02.11.13 at 12:16 am

#24 Muddy Waters

Something I’m very bullish on in the mid-to-long term that will destroy ‘Made in China.’ Link

#50 HogtownIndebted on 02.11.13 at 12:19 am

It continues to surprise me how many open house signs are already out in midtown Toronto, on streets today that have been barely plowed, dangerous with all our idiot pedestrians walking up the middle (pity us folks, most of us have never had to buy a pair of boots in order to actually use our sidewalks in winter). No traffic to the doors of any open houses from what I could see.

A few properties I have had an eye on in C2 seem to have chosen this weekend to cut the prices, down 10-20% quietly on MLS tonight.

Went to Yorkdale mall today, first time in a long time. The place was busy. Lots of sales advertising 70% off. The food court was completely packed; it seems that’s where everyone was spending their money.

The one sight in short supply throughout the mall? Shopping bags with new merchandise…..

#51 squidly77 on 02.11.13 at 12:25 am

Calgaryboomer on 02.10.13 at 11:44 pm

Yeah I read it, that’s why I wrote what I did. You say buyers are on drugs and it won’t last. And reading this blog last year, someone in Calgary might have sold low and missed this years opportunity.

Calgary has been a dead money zone for real estate for 6 straight years man. The only time its been worse was during the eighties.

Calgary boomer, you may be better suited to sell AAPL stocks, perhaps in six years, they will also be worth what they were valued at last year.

#52 Ralph Cramdown on 02.11.13 at 12:28 am

#32 Calgaryboomer — [...] reading this blog last year, someone in Calgary might have sold low and missed this years opportunity.

I don’t follow the Calgary real estate market, but presumably it has some connection to the rest of the economy in Alberta? Gas prices aren’t up enough from rock bottom, much of the oil produced is selling at a double discount and the government’s going to be cutting back. Here’s some generic advice:

“Nobody ever lost money taking a profit.”
“One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth – or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world.”
“I owne I thought they would carry on their cheat somewhat longer… I said, indeed, that ruin must soon come upon us, but I own it came two months sooner than I expected.”

#53 DJB on 02.11.13 at 12:30 am

Garth, along with this posting a follow up could address the wealth effect that goes with the rising tide.

When people feel richer thet spend more on credit with the thought of their rising equity in R/E

A whole posting could be spent on this topic

#54 Bill on 02.11.13 at 12:33 am

Was this actually the strategy all along? Prop up Canadian real estate long enough for the American economy to recover so that America’s recovery can offset the decline in Canadian real estate? I almost want to say that’s pretty clever.

#55 squidly77 on 02.11.13 at 12:35 am

Canadian Watchdog on 02.11.13 at 12:16 am

Think DDD I have held this for sometime. If you care to research the company you’ll see that they cash to burn. This will be bigger than the Internet.

And your right, this will destroy China. American universities drive American innovation to newer and higher plateaus on a regular basis.

Never bet against the USA.

#56 squidly77 on 02.11.13 at 12:37 am

I’m thinking that Apple or Google might buy DDD.

#57 joe on 02.11.13 at 12:42 am

off to thailand this wednesday. four weeks on the beach with the better half and my two year old son. just remember…renting is for losers!

#58 Dr. Hoof Hearted on 02.11.13 at 12:43 am

Ok it’s time for ” NAME THAT PROFESSION “:

“_________is an elite culture of privilege that has gone awry, utterly blind to its own weaknesses and its own propensity to cause harm. ”

=========================

What’s the difference between a mosquito and a ____?

One is a blood-sucking parasite; the other is an insect.

–================================

What’s the problem with________jokes?

________ don’t think they’re funny, and no one else thinks they’re jokes.

#59 prairie person on 02.11.13 at 12:48 am

Job losses continue. The biggest furniture store in Langford is closing down. So is Sport Mart in Langford.
This is the other side of the equation. Was in a furniture st ore today, not the one that is closing down, big place, acreage of furniture. Not one customer in the store. You’ve got maxed on credit + job losses = losing a house
A lot of couples got their mortgage based on two incomes.
Lose one and ?
I don’t understand what is happening. In a very short space of time there are no buyers. Could be those people Garth mentioned in today’s post. 14 guys with no work. Mortgage payment + truck payment + credit card payment + kiddie bills. Went to Superstore for groceries since I was in the area anyway. Two bags, 110.00. Glad I’m not feeding two teenagers anymore.

#60 squidly77 on 02.11.13 at 12:53 am

Dr. Hoof Hearted on 02.11.13 at 12:43 am

off to thailand this wednesday. four weeks on the beach with the better half and my two year old son. just remember…renting is for losers!

Kinda like taking a Cumber sandwich to a smorgasbord.

#61 Ralph Cramdown on 02.11.13 at 12:56 am

#33 Jon B — Has there been any other period in time when borrowing large sums of money was generally regarded as no-big-deal-all-the-kids-are-doing-it?

Of course. Most of those dot-com day traders in the late nineties were using margin. Michael Miliken’s popularization of junk bond financing drove the corporate leveraged buyout craze of the ’80s, while at the same time the Japanese were speculating in their stock market and taking out 100 year mortgages. The US brought in margin limit requirements in the first place after the crash of 1929 — before that the limit was set by brokerage house policy, often 10%.

#62 Richard and Zeus on 02.11.13 at 12:57 am

We just started mass production one of the only things you have to make here to guarantee quality…. Gun Parts.

Right Zeus? Bark !! Good Dog.

#63 Smoking Man on 02.11.13 at 1:04 am

As the bubble heads try and sell the story. The gold boys make a case… The wack jobs trying and be me. And the sane ones being polite..

Me I’m shit faced scanning the sky’s for ET

#64 Retired Boomer - WI on 02.11.13 at 1:12 am

As I’ve read this blog over the years, I see nothing really new here, except the repeat of the US’s folly is happening up north.
What did you expect? Broke borrowers? check. Crazy Bankers whose lending standards might have been written by the US guys who marked all those bullshit securities triple A ? check. An agency which “guarantees” the mortgages with all the money of the levered taxpayers? check. Bankers on steroids….wait til they have to “write down” their foreclosures? maybe a check here, too.

As the man said “This won’t end well.” So, now what’s an idiot to do? Good question. I guess we shall see what unfolds as unrelated businesses start feeling the squeeze.

#65 betamax on 02.11.13 at 1:16 am

Garth: “the equityless, mortgaged condo kids about to lose it all”

Wait till rates rise just as assessments hit and they’re too deep underwater to sell. It’ll be a nightmare for some.

Meanwhile, radio commercials in Van are currntly promoting zero down car loans for $20k plus $10k cash back. They don’t even list the monthly payment — they list a by-weekly payment instead.

And if people can’t handle the payments, no prob, they can get a home equity loan with guaranteed approval.

Canadians are drunk on cheap credit and it’s going to be hell of a hangover.

#66 Ralph Cramdown on 02.11.13 at 1:18 am

#51 skeptacular

Pretty fancy Venezuelan math there, but I think you missed a decimal point or something. It gets a little tricky since they use a fixed exchange rate which they periodically devalue. You don’t get to add up all the rates. Perhaps it would be simpler if we just used inflation rates, assumed our intrepid trader did his exchanges on the black market (where the rates takes inflation into account) and went from there. The CIA World Factbook sez inflation was 21% in 2012. Investing in Venezuela would have been a ten bagger. If you’ve got different numbers, feel free to provide them and, as they used to say in math class, “show your work.”

#67 KL on 02.11.13 at 1:26 am

#47 Edmontonian Here on 02.11.13 at 12:14 am
There is a real cooling in the Market here in EDMONTON ,as I’ve been told by a few people that they need to do tens of thousands $$$ in upgrades in order to even be able to consider selling. In calgary a friend just listed a gorgeous huge one bedroom loft she bought in 2006 for $270,000 (it’s been listed for 12 days, parking, laundry in-suite, huge ceilings, large balcony… no one has even looks at it yet, and she’s desperate to ”GET OUT” or face bankruptcy. She’s looking to just break even with late 2006 purchase-I’m not sure she can any more! :-(
Great central location housing that would catch you $900,000 in Vancouver, $750,000 in T.O.(but going down of course). Now available in Edmonton for $204,500! :-)
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?&PropertyId=12733924&PidKey=-1325339118

———————————————————————–

I’ve talked to a few people about this house, and it is in one of the worst hoods in Edmonton.
We recently moved here and find Edmonton quite affordable. We have pretty regular jobs and find a good house in an above average neighbourhood is somewhere between 4-5x household income. Not bad.

#68 Ralph Cramdown on 02.11.13 at 1:39 am

And now the latest from Venezuela-Among-the-Great-Lakes:

“They staked so much on Pupatello coming into the finance ministry that they had to resort to Plan B when that collapsed,” a senior Liberal insider confided Sunday night.

Nothing quite builds confidence among investors — and, ahem, residents — like labelling the finance minister “Plan B” before he’s even been sworn in. Cue the souzaphones.

#69 Mark on 02.11.13 at 2:13 am

Yet its not obvious to you Garth that the next move of the BoC is likely to be a rate cut, in response to recession that is certain to occur once the RE ponzi comes to a crashing halt?

Tsk, tsk… BoC is *way* behind the curve on this one. Of course lower policy rates won’t help homeowners especially as the banks rotate away from housing loans and housing collateral in general.

#70 willworkforpickles on 02.11.13 at 2:15 am

Now I’m going to really piss the neighborhood off and save on my heating bills . Gonna buy me a cheap wood stove at home hardware. Plenty a firewood in for sale signs on every block just waiting to be plucked got me ting-kin.

#71 Life in France on 02.11.13 at 2:30 am

“If you can’t see this looming, find another blog. You’ll be back.”

Here it is:

DELETED. Nice try. — Garth

#72 John Prine on 02.11.13 at 2:39 am

Can’t imagine the stress Jim Flaherty is going through knowing he is responsible for this whole mess we are in. The old saying “Kicking the can down the road” is being used more often than ever…..

#73 Blacksheep on 02.11.13 at 2:46 am

Dr. Hoof # 31,

“Do you folks understand what is REALLY going on” ?
————————————————
An intentional thickening of the Northern boarder, slowing movement of goods / people until Canadian business / public, demand a solution. The Southern border is left weakly guarded, allowing required discount labour in, while reinforcing claims the boarder cannot be secured.

Create a problem, offer a solution.
The campaign slogan reads:

“North American perimeter security, It just makes sense” ™

take care
Blacksheep

#74 GC on 02.11.13 at 2:54 am

Squidly77
Easy on us pickup truck drivers, I’m the most popular guy in the neighbourhood when someone wants to do a dump run or move a stainless steel appliance.
And where do they sell those bull ball hangers? Way cool.

#75 juno on 02.11.13 at 3:07 am

REmember the 80′s, overnight the interest rates sky rocketed. Only way housing can go up, is if the government starts printing money and de-valuing the dollar.

On the flip side, that will cause massive inflation can you say a bag of rice for $1000 . Its checkmate in 3 moves. Canada’s middle class is done like dinner!

If the banks have to cover future loans, expect loans to be costly and only to few elite. Forget about the average Joe Smoe! And startup companies. Meaning few jobs, few growth. Thanks F&C you two monkeys have destroyed Canada with your “Low Interest” ponzi scheme. Now we sit back and watch Canadian twitch while they maintain themselves on life support.

And don’t peal off the bandages the pus from the rottening flesh wounds will stink up the room!

#76 Piccaso on 02.11.13 at 3:45 am

I worked in Stockton, California during the housing boom. I remember the local engineer there chirping about his house price and how much it had gone up. I couldn’t believe the prices I was hearing, it was the first I had even heard about the U.S. housing boom being a Canuck. I wonder how that guy is doing today?

It was a nice day in Dallas today, went for an afternoon lager at a bar called Redneck Heaven. There must have been a hundred Harley’s in the parking lot. The bar and patio jammed with silver haired accountants and lawyers wearing t-shirts and bandanas out for a Sunday ride with their wives. I enjoyed my Texas red pint in Feburary sitting on the patio watching and listening to these beautiful shovel heads snapping and growling coming and going all afternoon.

#77 TRT on 02.11.13 at 3:47 am

Just got back from Dallas!

Amazing city!!! Grew by 150,000 plus residents last year alone. Growth in all directions (no artificial land use restrictions like the ALR/Geenbelt)…thus prices stay low. Desirable areas in the NorthEast are relatively pricey!

Population growth alone doesn’t cause prices to skyrocket. Need other factors in conjunction!

#78 What can go wrong? — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate « The Affluent Boomer™ on 02.11.13 at 3:55 am

[...] via What can go wrong? — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Est…. [...]

#79 Babblemaster on 02.11.13 at 4:08 am

“If you can’t see this looming, find another blog. You’ll be back.” – Garth

——————————————-

Garth, what is that supposed to mean? Do you really want only Garthonian type thinkers to populate your blog? You don’t mean that, it would be too boring.

Personally, I say all your arguments make perfect sense. They made sense three years ago and yet RE still continued it’s upward trajectory. I think I see a RE correction looming, but the timing may not be that close. While people may be tapped out and the market is saturated with 70% ownership, etc., Flaherty may still have a trick or two up his sleeve. For instance, what if some of the recent tightening of financing rules is relaxed once again? What if Flaherty pays people to buy houses? These crazy things could happen because, after all, you can’t count on Flaherty to always (ever?) do the prudent thing.

#80 Buy? Curious? on 02.11.13 at 4:34 am

I’m going to IKEA later today to pick up some furniture and stuff for storage. Then I’ll have a hot dog or two, followed by some ice cream and a coffee.

How is this applicable to this blog? Do I have bad taste? No, but Garth has had an indirect influence of my financial decisions. I sold my house in 2008, rented for 4 years, bought a smaller house last year and I’ve got to be more efficient with my living space. And last week, I opened up a line of credit like Garth suggested. Sure, he insisted that it be used in case of emergencies but you know how it is when someone plays some Nickleback and turns the dial up to 11.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFAGUAl8lxE&feature=player_embedded#!

#81 Tony on 02.11.13 at 5:03 am

Re: #18 AK on 02.10.13 at 10:43 pm

The Irish banks got him good. They’ll take that clown to the cleaners yet.

#82 BillyBob on 02.11.13 at 5:47 am

@ Calgaryboomer

Uh, yeah. Good luck with that housing market.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/twilight-of-an-energy-boom-albertas-new-fiscal-challenge/article8415713/?page=1

If anything Calgarians will just look like the biggest jackasses of all: not only did they not learn from the US, Spain, Ireland, UK, etc etc, but they were even late to the party in their own country!

#83 Turner Nation's Nation on 02.11.13 at 6:27 am

Mr. Nation,

I thought about your response to my post and came to the realization that you’re correct: People who oppose a bitumen pipeline should have their natural gas shut off because it also comes from a pipeline, even though it’s not the same product. You’re a genius. They should also have their water shut off because it too comes from a pipeline. As you later mentioned, they should never put gasoline in their car again. Opposing a bitumen pipeline should disqualify them from being able to use any petroleum-based products. Yank them all off the shelves!

Come to think of it, that all seems a little complicated. Why not just expropriate their land and force them to move away? We could call it “The Final Turner Nation (Incorporated) Solution”.

P.s. I actually support the pipeline, but not at the expense of “punishing” people who don’t agree with me. People in this country have a right to protest something if they don’t like it without fear of reprisal from the authorities. At least that’s the way it’s -supposed- to work.

#84 Real-e-horny on 02.11.13 at 6:29 am

Garth,

You often make comparisons to America, but don’t you think Canada should be compared to Australia, another resource based country?

And if we look at Australia, with worse fundamentals, granted real estate has fallen but nowhere like the levels of America.

Looks like a soft landing scenario for Canada is going to be achieved.

#85 The real Kip on 02.11.13 at 7:54 am

Is Stocton, California still broke? Wow! What happened to the big economic comeback in the states? What happened to don’t bet against America?

One city is not a country. Have another double-double before you post next time. — Garth

#86 T5>myT4 on 02.11.13 at 7:54 am

Oil and gas only worth 4% of the economy in Canada ?

I am calling B.S on that figure. The oil sands alone accounts for 10% and that doesn’t include Hibernia.

What are your sources on that 4% figure ?

Statistics Canada. Now run along. — Garth

#87 Ralph Cramdown on 02.11.13 at 9:08 am

#87 skeptacular — the “official” rate went from 4.3 bolivars/$1, to 6.3 bolivars/$1 that’s a devaluation of 46.5%

Don’t limit your self-flagellation to here — go tell Bloomberg, which is reporting Chavez Risks Backlash After Venezuela Devalues Bolivar 32% Venezuela devalued its currency for the fifth time in nine years (which suggests that maybe the annual rate is less than the headline devaluation rate). Bring data. And bandage up that foot, it looks like you’ve shot it near clean off. And maybe stick to GICs in your portfolio, TNL@TB does the math for you.

#88 Ralph Cramdown on 02.11.13 at 9:23 am

Gonna buy me a cheap wood stove at home hardware.

Get one with a blower. You’ll spend less on wood and won’t have to feed it as often.

#89 jess on 02.11.13 at 9:30 am

lipstick anyone this is horrendous

…so much for giving all those students etc that have had their records compromised.

Credit report companies
8yr. study says the 4billion dollar a year would rather pay the fine then fix the problem since it is cheaper
=20% error rate. For whom?

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50140748n

==
Inquiry into secret files kept by banks
Allegations that banks are sharing a secret, informal list which contains “unsubstantiated” allegations about their customers are to be investigated by Britain’s data regulator. the telegraph

#90 jess on 02.11.13 at 9:33 am

The UK government bailed out the system with loans and guarantees of nearly £1 trillion.

ringfencing uk
http://theconversation.edu.au/uk-banking-reform-bill-wont-curb-reckless-risk-taking-12087

#91 Steve on 02.11.13 at 9:45 am

#16 ClaudiusEmperor on 02.10.13 at 10:39 pm Please dismantle CMHC.

I am sick and tyred of paying for somebodyelses mistakes.
________________________________________

Which part of CMHC are you referring to?

If it is the mortage insurance piece that is most often mentioned on this blog, that is self-funding, although there is future RISK that it could fall short. To date, you (we) are not paying for this unless we take out a high-ratio (insured) mortgage and pay the one-time premium.

If it is the other tasks undertaken through CMHC that you wish to dismantle, what do you propose instead? Perhaps a review of CMHC quarterly report would be useful?

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/about/core/core_001.cfm

#92 Gerald Ferrer on 02.11.13 at 10:00 am

I also think that the market seems stagnant. And the house prices are being lowered. Why would real estate owners stop selling houses? Cheaper houses are great but must have that good quality as well. Hope to see more of your updates. Thank you for the information!

#93 Sebee on 02.11.13 at 10:17 am

California 16.5%, Canada 22%.

We are different. We’re better! We will win!

#94 Aussie Roy on 02.11.13 at 10:22 am

Aussie Update

Influential businessman Dick Smith is one of many who calls Australia’s property market a Ponzi scheme. He told the weekend Australian Financial Review in 2011, “I suggest to people who have big borrowings on a house, it’s all a Ponzi scheme.”

A Ponzi scheme provides returns to investors from money paid by subsequent investors, i.e. the property market requires new entrants (‘Greater Fools’) to pay more for housing than the previous person, so the scheme can keep operating (house prices continue to rise).

Figures on housing finance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today show the number of housing loans provided to owner occupiers’ fell by a seasonally adjusted 1.5 per cent in December 2012.

Loans for the purchase of existing dwellings fell 2.1 per cent, while loans for the construction of new dwellings increased 1.2 per cent and 2.9 per cent for the purchase of new dwellings. It is expected very generous grants for the construction of new homes is keeping this segment of the market above water.

The value of loans fell 2.6 per cent in December with owner occupier’s spending 2.7 per cent less and the value of investor loans falling 2.4 per cent.

The portion of first home buyers entering the market has hit levels not seen since 2004, falling to just 14.9 per cent of the market.

Prime Minister Gillard’s Home Truths

In Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s address to the National Press Club a fortnight ago, the same speech announcing the September 14 election, the Prime Minister took stock of the nation’s position commenting:

Superannuation returns are only just beginning to recover from the hit delivered by the Global Financial Crisis. Capital city housing prices have not grown at all in the past twelve to eighteen months, compared to the average yearly gains of eight to ten per cent in the years before the GFC.

These two impacts have us worried that our dreams of financial security are harder to achieve than ever before.

Today, we save over 10 per cent of household income. In the years before the GFC, we used to save nothing as a nation.

It was a phase that could not last – but unsurprisingly, many Australians miss those days when they could spend all of their income, see wealth increase through ever-rising house prices, and through easy credit, borrow against the house again to spend more.

http://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com/blog/2013/02/ponzi-scheme-failing-to-attract-new-entrants-gillards-home-truths/

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5609.0

#95 Lee from Markham on 02.11.13 at 10:59 am

South Unionville is still freeking hot. I hate it.
One townhouse, MLS# N2555791 was on market last year and went off the market in early 2013.
Not sold in about 60 days.

Now back in market with same prize. I am sure it will be gone this time.

First two three weeks of the year were very slow, things changed since BoC rate announcement. This time they mentioned that rate will be low till 2014. And suddenly the market reopened. Anyone else noticed that?

#96 Ralph Cramdown on 02.11.13 at 11:05 am

#95 skeptacular — let’s see… 4.3 – 6.3 =2
2/4.3 =.46 or, a devaluation of 46%

When I was in grade school, they taught me to estimate to see if my calculated answer was plausible. If the Bolivar is trading at 4.3:1 and it gets devalued 50% (pretty close to your calculated 46%, and easy to figure — for some of us), what would the new rate be? 8.6:1. So, is 6.3:1 close enough to 8.6:1 for your answer to be plausible? No, it is not.

It looks like you’re a victim of ‘New Math,’ so you’re probably not old enough to remember when Pepsi entered the Soviet market. They faced the same problem with currency controls, and they solved it.
http://articles.latimes.com/1990-04-10/news/mn-1040_1_soviet-union

#97 Finally on 02.11.13 at 11:12 am

I know 3 friends trying to sell thier house in Burnaby, Richmond and Point Grey for more than 8 months now. Many open houses, not a single offer. I sold my primary residence DT townhouse in May 2012, and 2 other investment condo’s in 2011 and now renting.

They all know RE is going down in the coming years, hence, trying to get out, but they still don’t lower their price. I scratch my head sometimes, I guess greed takes over pure logic.

#98 squidly77 on 02.11.13 at 11:38 am

Too little, too late, Blackberry walks the Green mile.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BBRY

#99 Snowboid on 02.11.13 at 11:55 am

Are you having trouble selling your Okanagan home?

Why not try rent-to-own? Or maybe not…

http://tinyurl.com/Vernon-Rent-To-Own

#100 Harvard Grad on 02.11.13 at 12:05 pm

Both my 2 brother-in-laws are in the construction trade, one is a licensed plumber doing very well financially (or should I say – bringing in good coin – but spending like a drunken sailor). My other brother-in-law started his own business painting homes. His business relies on subcontract work for new home construction and those who want to have their homes painted.

Both carry mortgages – both have refused to listen to me with warnings that when the market tanks – the industry they are in will implode.

I was just finishing highschool during the early 90′s housing bust – there is a reason many shy away from a trades job – you can’t count on consistant stability – except for the past 15 year run-up, it looks like a long draw down.

Good Luck to those who will be sucked into the financial pit.

#101 Gunboat denier on 02.11.13 at 12:14 pm

95 Skip & Ralph. Surely you both understand that 32%
=46%?

#102 Dr. Hoof Hearted on 02.11.13 at 12:20 pm

#74 Blacksheep on 02.11.13 at 2:46 am

Well Done:

I recall an old National Lampoon parody from the 1980′s. It showed a “white collar wetback”….a guy in a suit and briefcase from the US trying to get into Mexico illegally as the US economy was in a major slump.

I listen to a lot of Internet radio to get the real scoop of what is going on. The Republican party is probably dead. The Democrats are simply moving from socialist to communist. If they make the millions of Illegal immigrants US citizens via amnesty…they will have a huge voting block. Many of them will be on welfare programs and/or drive wages down.

Even here in BC, I am seeing a lot of Hispanics on various crews.

When Trudeau said “Canada is a multi-cultural country”, few people realized what he REALLY meant and what his goals were.

#103 EIT on 02.11.13 at 12:25 pm

**NUTBAR ALERT**

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TtqKGZsMx8

Can I make this a thing?

#104 Dupcheck on 02.11.13 at 12:26 pm

Money is like the energy, it changes shapes, but it is never lost. The money one side looses goes to another side. Someone is getting rich in the housing bubble. Can you guess who it might be?

#105 Spiltbongwater on 02.11.13 at 12:34 pm

In my townhouse complex 3 units have been for sale since Aug. There is an open house every weekend at 1 or more of them. They are all similarily priced at 320K- 330K. 2 weeks ago, a 4th came up for sale, so I grabbed a listing sheet. Priced at $299K it has an accepted offer already. The other vendors are likely scratching their heads how that happened, but get realistic, if you want to sell your house, you have to price it aggressivly. Waiting for someone to come and offer you your asking price is not going to happen.

#106 cramar on 02.11.13 at 12:34 pm

I get a kick out of reading the RE section in every Friday Globe & Mail. All about multimillion-dollar architect-designed homes, and luxury condos in Toronto. Everything seems just rosy in hogtown! There is even a U.S. section where multimillion-dollar FL homes are advertised! I guess there are no Americans buyers.

#107 Ronaldo on 02.11.13 at 12:38 pm

#55 Bill -

”Was this actually the strategy all along? Prop up Canadian real estate long enough for the American economy to recover so that America’s recovery can offset the decline in Canadian real estate? I almost want to say that’s pretty clever.”

I believed that this was the ”gamble”, not a strategy. They failed as did not expect the U.S. slowdown to last as long as it did. Buffoons.

#108 Doug in London on 02.11.13 at 12:41 pm

and the house-rich, asset-poor Boomers in particle board McMansions they thought were retirement plans.

I still don’t get it. How could a generation, more educated than previous generations and has witnessed previous real estate busts, not see the foolishness in putting all your retirement eggs in that one basket of a big oversized house? It’s like putting all your retirement money into the stock of one company. Why weren’t they selling while the market was good and downsizing into smaller places?

They all watched Global. — Garth

#109 sanddancer on 02.11.13 at 12:58 pm

Just drove around the False Creek/Olympic village area of Vancouver, I counted atleast 10 condo building in various forms of construction, all within a very small area of Cambie to Main St.
These developments are within a 2 blk radius of the Olympic village which is I believe still 30% un sold ?, with these many condos in such a concentrated area it will be interesting to see if this ends up being the “center” of the Van condo correction/crash ???
The building directly alongside the CAMBIE St bridge has been completed for approx. 3 months and is still not fully sold, so what chance the building within a few blks that are still not complete- price war ?

#110 rosie "moving forward" on 02.11.13 at 1:13 pm

Not so bad? Not so good? Hard to say. Only one option, keep moving forward. http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/02/11/glenn_thrush_14_trillion_budget_deficit_political_overestimates_deficit.html

#111 Ronaldo on 02.11.13 at 1:30 pm

#110 Spiltbongwater -

”Priced at $299K it has an accepted offer already. The other vendors are likely scratching their heads how that happened, but get realistic, if you want to sell your house, you have to price it aggressivly.”

And a few months from now, these new buyers will be scratching their heads wondering why they hadn’t waited and gotten if for $249,000 and so on and so on.

#112 Mike on 02.11.13 at 1:31 pm

#40 Calgaryboomer on 02.10.13 at 11:44 pm

Yeah I read it, that’s why I wrote what I did. You say buyers are on drugs and it won’t last. And reading this blog last year, someone in Calgary might have sold low and missed this years opportunity. TO and Van went up for years before they crashed! Calgary was still reeling from GFC so builders were gun shy about having too much inventory, so we didn’t have any overbuilding. I think we need to get to a situation like the other cities where we get a glut of houses/condos before we slow down or reverse. I guess you can say that this won’t last but you have to give a timeline if you wanna be a prophet because a broken clock is correct twice a day too!

Garth isn’t a prophet, he just has a lot more integrity and fortitude to stand up to nonsense that is published regarding real estate. You can never predict things like this exactly because there is always an unknown variable – government (BOC). If it wasn’t for the governments tinkering, Garth would have been correct when he initially began prognosticating, but Mark Carney kept the train moving with record low rates. Many people knew the stock market was inflated in the late 90′s, but didn’t know when exactly the bubble would burst. It is the same with real estate. No one can predict with 100% certainty, but stating that a market is inflated is not the same as predicting when the collapse happens. By the way, in terms of bubbles, 5 years is not long, as there are not many bubbles that exist in Canadian history over the last hundred years.

#113 Ralph Cramdown on 02.11.13 at 1:43 pm

#113 Doug in London — How could a generation, more educated than previous generations and has witnessed previous real estate busts, not see the foolishness in putting all your retirement eggs in that one basket of a big oversized house?

- While they may have been more educated, they weren’t more educated financially. If I recall correctly, all I got in the school system was a unit on calculating present value, future value and annuities in a grade 13 math course.

- Their parents told them real estate was a good bet (and it had been). Their parents held through the busts, because they had to live somewhere. Their parents didn’t slip them a fat envelope full of cash on their wedding day, saying “lever this up in the stock market.”

- Rent is usually your biggest monthly expense. If you’re not good at the analysis, the over-simplistic “renting is paying your landlord, but a mortgage is paying yourself” only leads to one conclusion.

#114 Soylent Green is People on 02.11.13 at 1:54 pm

Or consider bank customers. Last year, Mr. Flaherty announced a controversial plan to overhaul the regime that lets consumers seek compensation through an outside arbitrator when they believe they have been wronged. Ottawa is bowing to industry pressure by allowing individual banks to hire their own private dispute resolution company, bypassing the quasi-independent Ombudsman for Banking Services and Investments now used by most banks.

Politicians may express outrage about the plight of consumers. But their actions suggest otherwise.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/rigged-marketplace-at-the-heart-of-us-canada-price-gap/article8431006/

o
o

#115 broadway skytrain on 02.11.13 at 1:54 pm

#71 willworkforpickles on 02.11.13 at 2:15 am
save on my heating bills . Gonna buy me a cheap wood stove at home hardware. Plenty a firewood in for sale signs on every block
————————-
did this about 7 yrs ago as the wife likes it at 90F in the winter. we are walking distance to DT van, there a few other wood burners in the hood- buy an epa approved stove and burn dry wood and smoke is non issue.
best part is that i hooked up with a tree removal guy years ago and he SUPPLIES and DELIVERS my wood for free, and i get big arms by chopping it. 250 gas bills went to 75 – nice.

#116 Humpty Dumpty on 02.11.13 at 1:59 pm

49…CW…

Dont you need all three of these to kibsoh the commies..

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2013/02/printed-magazine/

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/02/07/podcast-james-rickards-on-currency-wars/

#117 tim sonerma on 02.11.13 at 2:03 pm

Ernst & Young report sees flurry of ‘for sale’ signs throughout oilpatch

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ernst-young-report-sees-flurry-sale-signs-throughout-170008429.html

#118 broadway skytrain on 02.11.13 at 2:17 pm

#101 Finally on 02.11.13 at 11:12 am
I know 3 friends trying to sell thier house in Burnaby, Richmond and Point Grey for more than 8 months now. Many open houses, not a single offer. I sold my primary residence DT townhouse in May 2012, and 2 other investment condo’s in 2011 and now renting.
————————————-
they should have bought in e van – grandview woodlands – inventory is lower than ever, EVERYTHING not way overpriced sells very very fast – my friend just put his un-renoed, granite free, needs painting, uninsulated, old timer sfh up for sale – i figure 920 or so is the true value – he’s asking 1.1M, he’ll probably get it.

#119 GTA Girl on 02.11.13 at 2:17 pm

To the person mentioning north Oakville and the builder who is putting up that huge project…construction trucks, cranes etc.

Of what was sold of this project, 95% are investor money. Builder is running a type of ponzi with investment company. They are leveraging, gaining weird foreign money…Russia? As you see with a few of their previous developments in Park Lawn area, most of their building are dark at night. Because its all tied up investor money.

This particular company has no- near to nothing, buyers walking off the street. If a buyer is foolish to think they’ll live in their projects, they will be faced with abomination of bad construction work, shoddy cheap materials and a near empty building.

This can’t last much longer. It’s being spoken about in bigger circles now.

Plus $450k 1.5 bedroom to live in a former flood plain next to a toll highway?

Yeah,….No

#120 GTA Girl on 02.11.13 at 2:25 pm

A developer just wrapped a big opening party for his new development in GTA, which will see town homes, semis and odd single home built on a old golf course.

His party needed valet parking, big tents etc. well attended by the usual sycophants of his. The developer is a mean spirited guy, makes sure his people show up or they get a strip off them.

All anyone could talk about was how out of touch he is. How municipality is going to be stuck w/more sprawl, no road widening plans on agenda, and the highway expansion isn’t even on a To-Do list. And at $475 to start for a 900ft townhouse in the midst of nowhere with zero transit and a 2lane road to over 3,000 homes?

Not to mention the large pipeline that meanders thru the development and the constant flooding that happens after a brutal winter.

The builder is hoping to appeal to the south Asian community, who are bulging out of Brampton.

If it fails, This could knock the little dictator of a developer back into the Florida rehab he seems to be visiting every couple of years.

#121 Mister Obvious on 02.11.13 at 2:27 pm

#114 sanddancer

Absolutely. For a few years now I have also been watching and waiting to see what will become of the condo madness you describe along Second Avenue between Main and Cambie.

It’s astounding to me such intense development could occur so soon after the Olympic Village disaster and mere stone’s throw away. Yet, there it is. Big as life and now nearly complete.

Driving into town on Oak Street last night I saw an entire block of SFH’s boarded up and slated for demolition. What else? More condos. Lots more big developments getting under way over in Burnaby too.

#122 Adviser on 02.11.13 at 2:28 pm

I was actually in the area of Mineola (Port Credit) on Sunday afternoon for a stroll by the lake, when out of curiosity we stopped by an open house

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12817458&PidKey=-505675565

Shocking!! No place to park, crowds of young couples walking through, the house is max 1200 square feet of cheaply done reno, facing a busy street, across from a secondary school. The neighborhood is nice though, the entire Port Credit area has a distinct small village touch to it.

#123 DON on 02.11.13 at 2:52 pm

@#80 Babblemaster on 02.11.13 at 4:08 am

“What if Flaherty pays people to buy houses? These crazy things could happen because, after all, you can’t count on Flaherty to always (ever?) do the prudent thing.”

**********************************
The only way Flaherty can entice me to buy a house is for him to give it to me for free. Why would any buyer, who smells blood in the air buy into this market. It is NOT SUSTAINABLE and sooner or later values will decline. I think you are missing the true point of supply and demand. Oh yah I forgot silly me…there’s a shortage of land in Canada. Sometimes I wonder how some humans get by on a daily basis…

#124 DON on 02.11.13 at 2:56 pm

#85 Real-e-horny on 02.11.13 at 6:29 am

Garth,

You often make comparisons to America, but don’t you think Canada should be compared to Australia, another resource based country?

And if we look at Australia, with worse fundamentals, granted real estate has fallen but nowhere like the levels of America.

Looks like a soft landing scenario for Canada is going to be achieved.
*****************************

Forgive me but I was under the impression that real estate just started the long long decline in Australia, still a couple of years behind the states, say like 4 or 5.

Patience. It will come.

#125 broadway skytrain on 02.11.13 at 2:57 pm

#121 Mister Obvious on 02.11.13 at 2:27 pm
#114 sanddancer
Absolutely. For a few years now I have also been watching and waiting to see what will become of the condo madness you describe along Second Avenue between Main and Cambie.
———————————————-
it seems like over 20 new projects are new/in const/planned – soooooooo many condos on the doorstep of the slow selling oly village. give the new(ish) skytrain stn some credit for this.

disaster ? maybe, but these newer units are way cheaper than the all the silly green unproven junk that went into olympic village.

#126 western observer on 02.11.13 at 3:12 pm

Questions for those that know the answer:

Is it general rule that if stocks go up – bonds go down and vice versa?

Or is there other corelated rise/fall investments. Such as ETFs, REITs, Dividend producing stocks.

I am trying to get a simple understanding so I can build a diversified portfolio with the small amount I have to invest.

Thanks in advance for any answers.

#127 Humpty Dumpty on 02.11.13 at 3:21 pm

gladiator
Muddy Waters
Canadian Watchdog
jess
Vlad

Legendary financier Frank Giustra speaking at the World Outlook Financial Conference in Vancouver earlier this month said what the global economy is going through is not just “another turn in the normal economic cycle,” but a “whole new game”.

starts at 8min…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfHm_ng6-UQ&feature=player_embedded

#128 Nancy on 02.11.13 at 3:24 pm

#126 Mister Obvious:

Can you please tell us which part of Oak Street has houses boarded up? What were the cross streets, approximately? Thanks.

#129 robert james on 02.11.13 at 3:27 pm

#103 Snowboid The Okanagan is one big parasitic economy .. Parasitic vermin like this like this louse that rips people off is simply part of the economy .. He obiously dosn`t have enough ambition to have a grow-op..Beware of rent to own scams,,they have been around for awhile..

#130 Dr. Hoof Hearted on 02.11.13 at 3:39 pm

#114 sanddancer on 02.11.13 at 12:58 pm

It makes no sense re : the market demand….

I think the real agenda is to wipe out the Commercial and Industrial base and concurrently increase Gov’t revenues.

There is no trickle down effect to benefit the citizens..its a trickle up effect to benefit the Civil Service, Politicians and Insiders. Most Cities seem to be rezoning these NON- residential areas to build empty condos.

One does not suspect something strange..almost conspiratorial about this ?

====================================

QUOTE:

Allan specializes in plaster work, drywall and stucco, with a shop just south of Vancouver, four trucks and a crew of 14. Well, until about last August. “There are three of us still working,” he told me on the weekend. “I’m eating, but my guys are completely screwed. Nobody’s coming back on the ticket for a long time.”

======

What we need it so hear MORE stories from those in the building trades re how busy are they ???? ..the real canaries in the mines .

#131 Canadian Watchdog on 02.11.13 at 3:40 pm

Gays, blacks nixed as images on Canada’s new plastic bank notes: report

OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada considered celebrating gay marriages, black hockey players, and turban-wearing RCMP officers on its new plastic bank notes — but eventually nixed them all in favour of the more traditional images of a train, a ship and a monument.

#132 jess on 02.11.13 at 4:15 pm

Parliament’s Tax Haven Investigation: Day One
MPs Begin Tax Haven Hearing

the member of parliament should read this

http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/governance/beneficial-ownership-and-control_5k4dkhwckbzv-en

…”full disclosure of beneficial ownership – that is the names and addresses of the real warm bodied people behind all companies – this abuse will continue.
…Especially when C$160 billion is funnelled offshore. Every year. Much of that money is never taxed. It is protected by a labyrinth of secrecy, lack of regulation or companies that exist only as post box addresses.”

===
Thursday, February 7, 2013
Statement of U.S. PIRG Tax and Budget Advocate Dan Smith on today’s introduction of the Corporate Tax Fairness Act by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL). Among other provisions, this legislation would stop corporations from being able to defer paying taxes on income earned offshore. The provisions in the bill have been scored as raising nearly $600 billion over ten years.

WASHINGTON, Feb. 7th – “America’s largest companies use accounting gimmicks to magically make their U.S. profits appear on the books of bogus shell companies in tax havens like the Cayman Islands. Ordinary taxpayers foot the bill for this corporate tax dodging in the form of cuts to public programs, more debt, or higher taxes. This legislation tackles the heart of the problem by ending incentives to shift profits offshore.

#133 Babblemaster on 02.11.13 at 4:15 pm

#128 DON

“It is NOT SUSTAINABLE and sooner or later values will decline.”

“Sometimes I wonder how some humans get by on a daily basis…

——————————————————

Sometimes, I wonder how people can be so obtuse. You missed the whole point of my missive.

OF COURSE current RE prices are not sustainable long-term. That should be obvious to any rational thinking person. The point I’m making is that the irresponsible government of Harper and his henchmen are perhaps not through with their market manipulation. They may introduce other programs to keep up the charade. They’d do it for short-term political gain. Politicians only think in 4 year election cycles, at max. And even if you’re not stupid enough to buy, there are others that are plenty stupid to do so. And don’t worry, we’ll pay pay for their stupidity through CMHC.

I’ve stopped wondering how some humans get by.

#134 Smoking Man on 02.11.13 at 4:24 pm

Came across some seagulls on the beach… Wtf they all have a leg missing…… Thinking beracoda, shark…. On closer observation they tuck one foot up……. Why is the question… And I’m like 20 margarita ville deep.

Seriously how many track6ers..would notice the one leg seagulls.

Just saying…. Never bet against a smoking Man..

#135 Double Double on 02.11.13 at 4:33 pm

Love this new name… so I wanted to add that everyone I know that bought homes in the $700000 +++ price range in North Oakville are speculators. They have no money, just dreams.

#136 Canadian Watchdog on 02.11.13 at 4:35 pm

B.I.S Joint Forum releases consultative paper – Mortgage insurance: market structure, underwriting cycle and policy implications

-In Canada and Hong Kong MI is required on high LTV loans made by regulated
deposit-taking institutions, while in the United States, the government-sponsored
housing enterprises (GSEs) require MI on loans they purchase that have LTV ratios
above 80%.

-In Australia, Canada, France, Mexico, Spain, and the United Kingdom, MI is (in
effect) incentivised through a lowering of risk-weights for the capital requirements of
lenders, although this has not necessarily led to significant MI use.

-The governments of Canada, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Mexico, the Netherlands, and
United States participate in the provision of MI. In many countries, the government
or government agency is in fact the dominant or sole provider of MI. In some
countries that dominance is in certain sectors and socially targeted, such as the US
Federal Housing Administration (FHA) that specialises in subprime loans.5 In other
countries, such as Canada, the government provides a back-stop guarantee against
mortgage insurance obligations.

Akerlof and Romer: Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit

Bankruptcy for profit occurs most commonly when a government guarantees a firm's debt obligations. The most obvious such guarantee is deposit insurance, but governments also implicitly or explicitly guarantee the policies of insurance companies, the pension obligations of private firms, virtually all the obligations of large banks, student loans, mortgage finance of subsided housing and general obligations of large or influential firms.

 

Read these papers and you'll know where Canada's housing market is heading. A housing crash is imminent, and Flaherty knows it.

This is the biggest fraud case in Canadian history.

#137 highway61 on 02.11.13 at 4:38 pm

calgary has another 18 months/10% up to go. after that – well – who knows but meanwhile there’s still some money to be made in local real estrate market.
with all due respect for mr. turner i am, again, going to be right. cheers!

#138 Alex N Calgary on 02.11.13 at 4:44 pm

Went by the lot where we used to live this week. It was a inner city house, on a very noisy corner (stop signs, roaring trucks) a recently refinished smaller bungalow with a large lot and a really nice 3 car garage/shop. It was not the best house, but I thought it was not bad! a mere 10months into living there the landlord guy tells us hes gonna tear it down and put up a duplex or something. After swearing to us when we moved in that he had no plans with the house…

Moving was tough at that time, having a dog, none of the holier then though landlords in Calgary would accept us into their wonderful new investment property, I walked out of a few rentals with arrogant early 30′s people who had JUST bought it to immediatly rent out, acting like everyone in the whole world wanted to live there…

I imagine our old landlord standing their with his little yellow hardhat on overseeing his new palace. Fast forward 1 year later… I guess he hadn’t ever bothered to check in person the for sale signs that had been up for a year in the neighbourhood, all the places that hadn’t sold, the exact same duplex 1 block down on a much quieter corner sitting vacant…

There it is! disgusting ugly massive cheaply built duplex, maybe 70% complete, no yard anymore, just a sea of grey, Up for sale!! All yours for a mere 670k a side!! enjoy the pot smoking 22yr old neighbour, the ultra trashy people who live directly around the house, who seemingly have no jobs, and the roar of diesel pickups pulling away from the stopsign all day long! Did I mention its a duplex? cheap inside? 670k?

He figured he’d make a quick 700,000$ easy, hes so smart, no problem just have to sink lifes savings into this, people will DIE to live here as its sorta kinda close to downtown, WRONG, people are so greedy and ignorant, sad state of affairs.

Oh sure you might still be able to make your mortgauge when all the jobs disappear in Calgary, but what about that rental house you just bought to get rich? you know the one with no renters in it, as Calgary is full of temp. immigrant labourers and people from other provinces, whom if you ask any of them, will bail back to their home provinces the second oil patch goes sour, yep, Calgary is different all right, but different in a catastrophic way

#139 Houman on 02.11.13 at 4:56 pm

Garth I have been watching the thornhill market closely. There has been no slow down what so ever. Couple of houses in my neighborhood recently sold over what they were going for last year April and May.
According to you Last Spring was the height of the market but that is not the case in my area anyway.

A 40 year old house with 0 renovations came on the market 2 weeks ago for 750. I would say the house was worthless, so basically land value. Guess how much it sold for! 830 with 8 offers and it is situated right across the train rail!

There is another one in the market right now,
http://www.zammit.com/current-listing/65-Dawn-Hill-Tr/N2553726/651

Offer date is this Wednesday, I spoke to the agent and she said she expect over 800 for sure!
Saw the house, its 1799 sqf in decent shape!

#140 Holy Crap Wheres the Tylenol on 02.11.13 at 5:08 pm

Well shorting Apple would work now wouldn’t it? Especially if you can make up narratives. Hummm..

http://readwrite.com/2013/02/11/whos-manipulating-apple-stock-with-this-iwatch-story

#141 panhead on 02.11.13 at 5:11 pm

#135 Dr. Hoof Hearted

What we need it so hear MORE stories from those in the building trades re how busy are they ???? ..the real canaries in the mines .
———————————————————–
Another good barometer is watching what the short line railways are moving. I work for one serving the Lower Mainland and there ain’t much on the move. Eerie…

#142 -=jwk=- on 02.11.13 at 5:30 pm

Hoof Hearted:
“If they make the millions of Illegal immigrants US citizens via amnesty…they will have a huge voting block. Many of them will be on welfare programs and/or drive wages down. ”

What would possibly make you think that? I lived in Los Anglese for five + years. Saw a lot of people on welfare. none of them immigrants. They will starve before they take government money, even the legal ones. The more immigrant paying taxes, the better. Someone has to pay for the ‘red states’ welfare programs…

#143 Ralph Cramdown on 02.11.13 at 5:30 pm

#104 skeptacular — and yet, today you now need nearly 50% more bolivars to buy 1 US than last week

Man alive, are you STILL at it? Every time you respond, I have to cross off another Stanford-Binet level in my estimation of you.

If the Bolivar declined by about 50%, as you claimed, you’d need 100% more Bolivars to buy the same number of dollars.
http://ca.ixl.com/standards/ontario/math/grade-6

#144 afraidit allmightend on 02.11.13 at 5:38 pm

Thank you for deleting and censoring the so called ‘truth tellers’ like Hangfire. I need a few more years before I collect my retirement and don’t want anyone rocking the boat before I’m out. It’s good of you to support our cause Mr Garth. We Liberals are being attacked by the National Post and Sun News, polls show opinions are being changed when the facts are known. I’m so glad you won’t let that happen on your watch. Keep a lid on adverse opinions until we are back up in the polls. The next time around I’m sure you’ll get a senate seat.

Not a political blog, dude. Suck it up. — Garth

#145 Rob in TO on 02.11.13 at 5:51 pm

#127

750 K for that? When are people going to come back to reality and accept the fact that the party is over.

#146 leo on 02.11.13 at 6:03 pm

When you see price increases of 40 to 50% over only 2 years for some segments of the market, you understand that things are wrong and will correct …. Slow sales and reduction of housing starts is just the opening act of a painful correction…..

#147 edmontonian on 02.11.13 at 6:27 pm

Re: #68 KL
4-5x house hold income for a nice neighbourhood is “not bad”?
Historically in Edmonton after several boom & busts cycles (1972, 1977, 1982 & 1987) the housing market usually takes a nose-dive to about 2x the average income. Always have & always will. Esspecially in a few years with food prices soaring as one billion people in China move from poverty to middle-class.
And the Alberta Avenue nieghbourhood offers a great, mature quiet setting with lots of investment from young couples, as long as you are off the main drags.

#148 Vamanos Pest on 02.11.13 at 6:27 pm

Why are some of these comments continuing to debate whether or not there’ll be a RE correction. This is not something that might happen, this is something that is happening. It is an empirical fact. If the only way one would believe RE prices are going down, is seeing RE prices going down (the final step in the process already underway) then how would one ever be ahead of the market…and avoid being the greater fool?

#149 AprilNewwest on 02.11.13 at 6:39 pm

Houman #144 – I for one don’t feel one bit sorry for those fools.

#150 Montrealer on 02.11.13 at 6:53 pm

Oddly, there seems to ber very little information on the web regarding the housing market in montreal – where are the blogs and discussion forums, in particular?

#151 Olympic Village Van city on 02.11.13 at 7:01 pm

@Sandstorm…. the Olympic Village over 5 yrs since presale inception yup still 30% unsold, going to be ugly!

#152 Fort Mac Flatlander on 02.11.13 at 7:03 pm

Mike # 117

You can never predict things like this exactly because there is always an unknown variable – government (BOC).

Just for your info. The Bank of Canada is not a Government body, just as how the Federal Reserve is not a Government body. These are private central banks that are supposed to be independent of political intervention. However, their decisions seem to be becoming more political each year.

The Bank of Canada is not a private bank. Sheesh. — Garth

#153 minus40 on 02.11.13 at 7:16 pm

Stockton got hammered by the housing crash, but it went bankrupt because it floated a bond to fund things like employee pensions and benefits, then immediately gave the money to Lehman Brothers, who bet it on risky stocks in an already slumping stock market and lost. Other cities weathered the real estate crash without going bankrupt (only 17 municipalities out of the 90,000 in the US declared bankruptcy last year):

“Stockton shows how, in a worst-case scenario, pension obligation bonding gone wrong can combine with other factors to land you in bankruptcy.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-27/why-stockton-is-bankrupt-but-your-town-here-isn-t.html

#154 Alberter on 02.11.13 at 7:18 pm

You guys are all renting? I don’t think real estate is unaffordable right now ( you have to think of it as an expense instead of investment though ) $2000 a month mortgage can get you pretty sweet house…not sure why that’s unaffordable. Just because last generation (the people that are 45 +) had it easy due to high wages and low property prices.

#155 Gunboat denier on 02.11.13 at 7:19 pm

143 Alex – get over it

#156 Mister Obvious on 02.11.13 at 7:26 pm

#133 Nancy

Can you please tell us which part of Oak Street has houses boarded up? What were the cross streets, approximately? Thanks.
———————————-

Sure. It was pretty well a full block on the east side of Oak at approximately 46th street. I determined that by ‘street viewing’ the area to help jog my memory of the exact location from last night. My wife was driving which gave me a rare opportunity to peruse the area.

#157 Bill Gable on 02.11.13 at 7:35 pm

She looked at me like I had just said the Khardashians were morons and said ” well – I looked at that Blog by that fellow Turner, you told me about”. (*I could feel the Exocet being primed for fire). “He has it backwards – the only way to get rich is Real Estate”.
The smirk was very West Van.

I was polite and said ” We live in the second most expensive City in North America, jobs are leaving faster than the fans of Christy Clark are jumping ship, and Taxes and Interest rates have nowhere to go but up – but heh, it’s your moola”.
You would have thought I’d said Ted Nugent had brains!

She said “another gloom and doomer renter, right?”.

‘Yup – we sold the apartment building we owned and I phoned a guy named,uh, Garth”.

I enjoyed the look on her ‘face lifted’ visage – sort of like Madonna when she tries to sing on key.

#158 T5>myT4 on 02.11.13 at 7:39 pm

Son of B. Why did I challenge the man who is responsible for my screen name ?

I stand corrected Sir Turner.

#159 Nosty Mad Vlad on 02.11.13 at 7:59 pm

-
Today’s abdication of the Pope adds more flavor and color to this decade Immunity? “That ends on the 28th!”. Not only are the Mayans, Aztecs and Incas cycles all ending (Mayans complete), it also throws out the possibility of Queen Liz handing the throne over to Prince Andrew (Charles is too much of an airhead).

The prophecies of St. Malachy come into play here, with him saying the 265th Pope (the present one, just abdicated) was the wolf in sheep’s clothing (the Negative Force / Devil / Satan), and the next (#266) is the last in the cycle. There will be blood on the streets of Rome — that is par for the course. In the lower psychic regions, the karmic pace of time has really shifted into another gear, esp. in this melting pot of a planet.

Wonder if this is why Sergey Brin (I think) sold about 42% of his stake in Google? He’s sitting on a wad of cash right now.
*
#206 Smoking Man on 02.10.13 at 9:06 pm — “Never coming back to Canada, more white trash down here than I have ever seen in my life, gave out tones of loot. They got a good story to tell me they get paid….. The story’s I have heard. PRICELESS….” — I’m white trash, so please tell us stories about Pirates of the Caribbean!
*
Banking Elite Are they running short of cash? We can have a collection here! South America “Looks as though the currency wars have begun in earnest; probably, the next country to devalue its currency will be Egypt.” wrh.com; Gold and stuff; 2:16 clip Pelosi says no spending crisis which is true, as the US Fed can print ad infinitum; 11:32 clip US following USSR? Interest-free loans Isn’t that in Shariah (Muslim) law? Citigroup Read it and laugh; The Great Implosion (or Imposition); Austerity Irish people are pissed.
*
Obomba’s E.O. on cyber security; CC Alarmists Auntie Beeb forced to back down; UK two-faced; Horsedonkey Meat This is getting bizarre; Consp. Theorists We are getting closer to the truth; China – Japan Squaring up; 4:09 clip “Wreckage from Flight 93 was spread over 8 miles of countryside, proving that Flight 93 was destroyed in mid-air. The most likely explanation is that the flight crew had regained control of the aircraft and had they landed successfully, the facts on the plane itself would have conflicted with the official story of Arab Muslim hijackers, so they had to be shot down.” wrh.com.

#160 PERPLEXED on 02.11.13 at 8:17 pm

HEY GARTHY, BUDDY. U GOTTA SEE THIS.

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/02/11/high-income-couple-has-to-deal-with-some-real-estate-headaches/

SOUNDS LIKE SOMETHING YOU WARN US ABOUT.

#161 Daisy Mae on 02.11.13 at 8:21 pm

#120 Broadway Skytrain: “Plenty a firewood in for sale signs on every block…”

**************************

The fireplace inserts serve well as cooktops. Great for simply boiling water for coffee/tea….for cooking soups, stews, whatever.

#162 Daisy Mae on 02.11.13 at 8:27 pm

Further to last…we used to chop down standing deadwood, buck it up, split it, stack it. It was a family affair. Memories are made of this!

#163 Cory on 02.11.13 at 8:31 pm

Jounce #32

That was low. Only a realtor would speak the way you did. Change professions and get some class.

#164 cramar on 02.11.13 at 8:43 pm

Haven’t heard of this scheme before. But then I don’t get out much.

Homeowners stung by botched ‘rent to own’ scheme
Unlicensed agent keeps money while ‘buyer’ occupies home

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/02/08/bc-renttoown.html

#165 TurnerNation on 02.11.13 at 9:10 pm

#84 Turner Nation’s Nation

Your NIBMYism is rampant.
Only you could support those which blockade railway lines, impede civil society.

#166 Herb on 02.11.13 at 9:13 pm

#139 Smoking Man,

who would have thunk that our Smoking Man would notice that gulls often stand on one leg! That man has unexpected powers of observation, but then he doesn’t get out in daylight often.

#167 Richard and Zeus on 02.11.13 at 9:17 pm

“Fort Mac Flatlander on 02.11.13 at 7:03 pm
Mike # 117

You can never predict things like this exactly because there is always an unknown variable – government (BOC).

Just for your info. The Bank of Canada is not a Government body, just as how the Federal Reserve is not a Government body. These are private central banks that are supposed to be independent of political intervention. However, their decisions seem to be becoming more political each year.

The Bank of Canada is not a private bank. Sheesh. — Garth”
————————————————————-

The Bank of Canada is a Crown Corporation that is allowed to do whatever it wants. It is NOT directly answerable to the people of Canada. Therein lies the rub and why it is still scrutinized……

I true Central Bank that works “on behalf of the peoples mandate” would be an answerable Ministry like the Ministry of finance, Health, Education etc. The BOC is not…..

A Crown Corp is not private. You own it. — Garth

#168 Richard and Zeus on 02.11.13 at 9:48 pm

The Bank of Canada is a Crown Corporation that is allowed to do whatever it wants. It is NOT directly answerable to the people of Canada. Therein lies the rub and why it is still scrutinized……

I true Central Bank that works “on behalf of the peoples mandate” would be an answerable Ministry like the Ministry of finance, Health, Education etc. The BOC is not…..

A Crown Corp is not private. You own it. — Garth

I never said it was private. I said it was not accountable. You can’t vote the bums out who are responsible for it. Certain MPs who are poor at their job etc etc……

#169 Mike on 02.12.13 at 12:22 am

Yes, I know boc is not run by the government per se, but it has heavy government influence and it is the current government that decides who is the governor, and the government controls and regulates it.