The strong start

snow 3

“Verry interesting about the Canadian housing market on your blog,” Göran Högberg writes me. “But what about Sweden?”

Sweden? Göran, dude, we still haven’t figured out Calgary. Or why real estate boards manipulate their numbers. Why Sherry Cooper hates me. Or why anyone would move to Saskatoon, which is a lot like Sweden without Abba and Ikea. Or blondes.

In fact, the beaverish real estate market here is a mystery to most people who lack the stomach to come to this blog, and rely instead on the slowly-bankrupting mainstream media. For example, six million people woke up with a start one morning this week to read the headline, “GTA realtors report strong start to 2013!

And the story went:

“Toronto-area realtors are seeing a surprisingly strong start to 2013 after a slump that began last spring. Home sales were down just slightly — about 1.3 per cent — in January over a year earlier after months of largely double-digit decreases while prices were up 4.3 per cent across the GTA, according to new figures released Tuesday by the Toronto Real Estate Board. The average sales price of a GTA home last month was $482,648, up from $462,655 in January, 2012. Assuming the turnaround holds, “expect annual price growth in the three to five per cent range this year,” says TREB’s senior market analyst, Jason Mercer.”

Some of this is actually true, at least for now. There were 4,375 sales in this massive market in January compared with 4,432 last year. Of course, in January of 2012 there was one less market day than this year, which means sales slipped more than reported. But who’s counting?

And price? Well, the price of a detached home in 416 was $831,214 in April and today it’s $765,049, which sure looks like an 8% decline. Back in the spring of last year the average condo was changing hands for $362,000. Now it’s worth $340,295, a dip of 6%. So how is the average price $20,000 more than a year ago?

Because last January we were heading into the market apex, a frothy time of urban excess exceeding even the aphrodisiac high of eating Swedish meatballs in the nude while listening to an 8-track of The Dancing Queen. Multiple bids were everywhere. Horny, vexed buyers idled at the curb while their agents battled it out inside. Bully bids, hold-back offers and certified deposits of $50,000 filled the air. F had yet to hammer down the virgins, banks gave away downpayments and asking prices were nothing more than lame suggestions.

In short, the price comparison is irrelevant. It tells us nothing, save what dinglenuts we all were a year ago. Far more relevant is knowing about market momentum, which means the trends of the last few months are more salient to prospective buyers and sellers.

Like this: Sales may be flat, but the number of new listings has swelled by 11% from this time a year ago. In a perfect world, that should mean it takes longer to sell a house, which is exactly what happened. The days on market in 416 increased from 31 to 39 which is, wow, a 25% increase. In fact, in central Toronto listings are multiplying faster than inbred Volvos, up by more than 40 per cent (2,057 last year and 3,080 now).

This is news you can use, since it suggests supply is starting to overwhelm demand in certain areas, hinting prices could be headed lower instead of higher. Meanwhile we all know condos are more vulnerable than an Ikea monkey in drag. Sales of new units have tumbled by half, and 53,000 more are in the pipeline even as over twenty thousand boxes sit vacant, unsold and unloved.

So how, exactly, is this a “surprisingly strong start” to the new year? Only one reason. The realtors, despite all their protestations to the contrary, their Frankenumbers, misleading media release, stats revisions and faux economists, also believe the market is going down. After the mortgage and bank rule changes, the debt, the real estate saturation and the economic torpor, how could it be otherwise? We are in not for a crash, but a long, sustained correction, which is worse.

This is Canada, not Sweden, after all. We don’t hurl our naked, steaming, sauna-sautéed bodies into some icy fjord while grasping half-sucked bottles of Absolut. Get a grip, Göran. Keep your Nordic depravities where they belong. And solve your own real estate bloat.

Damn Vikings.

251 comments ↓

#1 Short Vowels on 02.05.13 at 10:30 pm

Fjordst!

#2 guelphstudent on 02.05.13 at 10:31 pm

I agree completely that you have to look at market momentum, for instance number of active condo listings in City of Toronto went up by 28% in January.

Also condo’s went down 1.3% from year ago while sales went down 4.5%. Toronto Central condos went down even more.

#3 City that smells like it sounds on 02.05.13 at 10:32 pm

DELETED.

#4 Dr. Ralph Cramdown, FRCS(C) on 02.05.13 at 10:38 pm

Now if you said listings were multiplying faster than Audis, I’d be worried. “Faster than Volvos” sounds too much like the realtors’ line that inventory is tight.

Which reminds me… I don’t like the looks of any of today’s sedans. Too many creases, too much LED eyeliner, too many badges bragging about the contents. What the HECK am I going to buy as my new Q-car in the used market a few years from now?

#5 Real-e-horny on 02.05.13 at 10:39 pm

Foist!!?

#6 Paolo on 02.05.13 at 10:39 pm

Yeah I read this in the Toronto Star tonight. It’s up! Market in GTA. First time homebuyers are back. Party continues. Long live the “Ponzi” Scheme Economy of ours.

#7 F bomb on 02.05.13 at 10:39 pm

First!!! I mean first time making a comment on your blog Garth! What’s up with the losers that want to be first anyway! I say get a life! Anyway, love the blog and keep it coming! Cheers!

#8 JSS on 02.05.13 at 10:42 pm

Are Kia vehicles made in Sweeden?

Just wondering, since I haven’t heard any Kia slags lately.

#9 lilyflor on 02.05.13 at 10:42 pm

Bank of Canada buying back up to 1billion Cdn $ of bonds. Please help a financial illiterate, what does that mean for the economy? interest rates will remain low or go lower? inflation due to depreciation of dollar? what about use/cdn $ is that affected?

thanks so much!

#10 Sparky55 on 02.05.13 at 10:42 pm

Another developer owned house that hasn’t sold, that has been increased from $399,00 to $509,900 over a period of a year. Just re-listed today (although they didn’t increase the price during the relist).

http://www.viewpoint.ca/property/cutsheet/41270786?no-nav=1&no-footer=1

#11 lilyflor on 02.05.13 at 10:42 pm

“us/cdn $”

#12 popados on 02.05.13 at 10:43 pm

any body see the beijing bubble on global?A REAL GHOST STORY.

#13 bubu on 02.05.13 at 10:43 pm

Same start in Edmonton:

http://edmontonrealestateblog.com/2013/02/edmonton-real-estate-market-sees-best-start-in-5-years.html

The only problem is now they report on Edmonton Great Area comparing with a year ago… sales were reported for Edmonton only.

#14 Smoking Man on 02.05.13 at 10:45 pm

University Professors are Idiots………….

I chirped a professor on the weekend here. As expected no rebuttal, truth is he is not trained to deal with someone of my caliber, the people he encounters on a daily basis are either up and coming slaves, kissing his ass for marks, or other academia trying to word each other. Note: did not use the word wit…….

He can’t deal with someone as great as me, I am great communicator yet lacks any respect for the in-glish laugage…. In his mind, avoid Smoking Man at all costs.

I told him the university model is broken, his shelf life is limited, in fact a few links posted here show a high number of Phd’s and masters grads, on food stamps. Now those are Greater Fools to me….

Hotdog vendors stepping on their faces up the easy street ladder. While they beg, some more please sir……………………

A while ago I told you guys I picked up C# in a few days, well today I learned how to build android apps. Thanks for the inspiration Yoda.

The internet, a Big axe to the head of traditional schooling.

Anyone wana build an app. Copy Paste (Plagiarize) and modify.

http://mobile.tutsplus.com/tutorials/android/android-sample-apps/

Very Easy kids……Anything You Could Possibly want to learn is free, and on the web.

PS, I was finally wrong, my last post of the day yesterday….Ok you got me dogs……

#15 Sparky55 on 02.05.13 at 10:46 pm

Here’s a house that was listed for $1,490,000, and sold for $900,000 after 435 days.

http://www.viewpoint.ca/property/cutsheet/00000836?no-nav=1&no-footer=1

#16 Inglorious Investor on 02.05.13 at 10:48 pm

#161 TEMPLE on 02.05.13 at 6:20 pm

“No it isn’t. Not even close. Why do you begrudge high teacher pay, anyhow?”

Yes it is. On both counts.
• Re: teacher’s pay: I know someone who works in the education system who is privy to this info, and who told me so directly.
• Re: Directors and VPs: Director’s salaries can range from as low as the 70′s up to the 150′s. VPs: low 100′s to up to the 200′s.

I don’t know many people who would agree that a school teacher’s pay deserves to be in the same league as these positions. Just in terms of hours they work about twice as long as teachers, and they can have serious P&L responsibility with large staffs. Sorry, teachers don’t compare. Why am I against it? Because they are overpaid––with my money.

Meanwhile my kids’ school begs parents to buy books for their library every year. And before you say that the government should put more money into education, they have. Lots of it. While student enrolment was declining. All the money went to the teachers. Leaving the boards seriously underfunded and the quality of education suffers for it. This is driving more and more people into private schools. How is that good for our education system?

———-

“Exactly my point. You want us all to race to the bottom.”

It’s not about a race to the bottom. It’a about an overburdened tax payer supporting overpaid civil servants. If equality is that important to you, then why don’t YOU go protest to the big corporations on behalf of your beleaguered brethren in the private sector?

———

“Pick up a history book and learn about organized labour. Then maybe we can have a rational conversation about unions.”

I’ve probably read more history than you know exists. Including the writings of such thinkers as Marx, Engels, Veblen, Adam Smith, Galbraith, Keynes, and many others.

Trade unions are not just about wages. They were also formed to improve working conditions and handle other issues. Yes. But if you study the union movement, going back even to the guilds of the Middle Ages and even ancient Roman times, you’d know higher wages has always been a primary goal. And they achieve this through controlling the supply of labour. If you don’t understand that, you don’t understand basic economics.

Now, this may shock you, but I’m not against unions. I’m against greedy unions, particularly public sector unions who only know the words “Must. Have. More.” no matter what the conditions, and who forget that its the tax payer who pays the wages of their members.

#17 chopper on 02.05.13 at 10:49 pm

First post for me. Keep up the great work you are doing Garth, I have been reading your blog for 4 months now and waiting for the right time to buy.

I will wait till after spring to get a better feel of the RE market.
Thanks

#18 kenken on 02.05.13 at 10:49 pm

prices wont go down in GTA.
as shown by TREB report for Jan13, it’s all going very strong… little slowdown and stable prices but no big price declines!!
those who waited missed the boat!

#19 Willowdale rabbit on 02.05.13 at 10:50 pm

if you want to sell, this is your artist http://www.zammit.com/staging

but wait, willowdale and Thornhill is inmune to any downturn right?

#20 broadway skytrain on 02.05.13 at 10:51 pm

smoking man’s ‘post penny’ financial plan… guaranteed return, Free money for all!

simply make repeated withdraws from your local bank for $0.03. (you make 40% guaranteed on each transaction!)

#21 Smoking Man on 02.05.13 at 10:53 pm

Garth of course the numbers are massaged by the Real Estate Cartel……..Its done in the USA, Canada and every were else. It includes New and current events…

Do you think the Herd knows or cares…..They follow the dogs if front of them.

It’s ridiculous, but its going to be another great spring market..

Attention Herd train is leaving on Track 6, all aboard…

#22 █ ♣ █ ANONYMOUS on 02.05.13 at 10:57 pm

Well, we all got to live somewhere, and when one thinks about it, if you pay $15,000 per year in rent on a house that costs $300,000 per year to buy, that’s the same amount as the same house falling by 5% per year.

So lets say you wait and rent a house for 2 years, waiting for prices to fall. Meanwhile, prices of houses do fall, by 10% in those 2 years. Well, guess what, you’ve lost $30,000 in rent; the exact same amount as that drop in house prices, so you didn’t come out any farther ahead now did you?

So the moral of the story is this: Yes, house prices will fall by 2% to 5% per year, but if you RENT then you will keep losing that EXACT same amount of money each year anyways, so go ahead and buy and don’t worry about your house falling 2% per year, its still cheaper than renting.

#23 lawboy on 02.05.13 at 10:58 pm

Oh NOW the papers tell us about a “slump that began last spring” ???

#24 Inglorious Investor on 02.05.13 at 10:59 pm

#187 LongTimeReaderFirstTime Writer on 02.05.13 at 8:50 pm

“I too have worked in government, have paid for huge pension deductions each paycheque”

And where did the money for those pension deductions come from?

—————–

“Been there, done that with 80 hour corporate workweeks, and they produce nothing of value in the end. That route to happiness is a terrible lie we tell to ourselves and inflict on our children, who grow up never being known by us.”

Sounds like a euphemism for “I couldn’t hack it in the private sector.” That’s OK, I know lots of career civil servants who wouldn’t last a week in the private sector, so you’re not alone.

——————

“I have grown to hate corporations more and more, for thier inherent injustices.”

So have I. But study a bit of history. You’ll discover that your government masters are no better.

#25 Canadian Watchdog on 02.05.13 at 11:00 pm

I knew this month would confuse people, so here’s a chart showing GTA’s trend juxtaposed against other benchmark prices.

The average price is always the leader of indexes, but its seasonal cycle is misunderstood by many. Simply said, the two best time periods to evaluate home prices is during spring and fall when sales activity is robust. Going forward into Q2, as sales rise, the average price will decline as less dollars chase more sales.

On another note: Ben Rabidoux spotted another TREB revision that I never noticed. TREB added (or magically found one year afterwards) 1281 listings to last years actve listings. This boosted last years numbers to make this year look moderate, when really listings soared by 30% y/y compared to the initial data reported.

The manipulation is all there, yet nobody does anything, so it continues.

#26 Chumbo on 02.05.13 at 11:04 pm

#8 JSS, yes, they use monkeys to make iKias there.

#27 Inglorious Investor on 02.05.13 at 11:06 pm

Excellent post, Mr. Turner. I can see why Sherry Cooper hates you.

#28 periwinkles on 02.05.13 at 11:10 pm

Sherry has a sweet, youthful face & voice but her hands give it all away.

#29 Dr. WAYNE on 02.05.13 at 11:10 pm

#1 Short Vowels on 02.05.13 at 10:30 pm

Fjordst!

=====================

FIRST in Swedish is ‘Første’ … no matter … you still remain the ‘Første’ infantile a$$hole trying to please his mother with all his brilliance at superseding other like minded a$$holes …

#30 Kilby on 02.05.13 at 11:12 pm

My wife’s company gave her a 2010 Kia Forte (leather, 17″ wheels, sunroof etc… OK car but tinny doors and an automatic that hunts all the time but overall, not a bad car, better than the domestic rentals we use occasionally ….Feels like a German car by comparison…..Almost..

#31 Inglorious Investor on 02.05.13 at 11:13 pm

#25 Canadian Watchdog on 02.05.13 at 11:00 pm

Keep ‘em coming, CW. Good stuff.

#32 MJG on 02.05.13 at 11:13 pm

This may be the first time the word “dinglenuts” has been used in print. Or at all. Good useful word that: Dinglenuts.

#33 Mr Buyer on 02.05.13 at 11:18 pm

#25 Canadian Watchdog on 02.05.13 at 11:00 pm
………………………………………………………….
nice work. Hats off to Ben Rabidoux and yourself. These are instances of fraud in that the assertions serve the purpose of inducing others to commit large sums of cash in a misrepresented environment. Fraud, plainly and simply whether it was last year’s fraud by suppressing listings or this year’s fraud by inflating last year’s listings. Where is the Crown Attorney in all this? Even if it is passed of as mistakes they are mistakes exemplifying criminal negligence. You can not have it both ways. People are free to make their own decisions but they are basing these decisions upon asserted facts.

#34 visorman30 on 02.05.13 at 11:18 pm

#22 Anonymous – Could you clarify your position? Reading into your post, it seems like you’re saying that it’s always better to buy rather than rent.

Although, your own analysis betrays that conclusion. How so? Even though your #’s are consistent with the conclusion, the fact there is a comparison of rent and purchase cost points to the idea that its not ALWAYS better to buy.

Additionally, your analysis does not use comparable numbers. A key fact is that purchasing has a different effect on cash flow than the simple loss in value used in your example. So comparing an annual loss in value to rent would be invalid as there is a benefit (generally) of more available free cash flow from renting. This difference can be used to improve net worth (or for fun things too) and that opportunity cost is not reflected in the numbers in your example.

So back to my original question then. Could you please clarify your position #22?

#35 debtified on 02.05.13 at 11:20 pm

#22 █ ♣ █ ANONYMOUS on 02.05.13 at 10:57 pm

You’ve been here long enough to know that your logic is flawed. Maybe you are not actually reading Garth’s post.

Here’s one of many posts that deal with this Rent vs Own debate:

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/04/19/throwing-it-away/

Garth, it’s time to give my thanks to you for the free education. Thank you.

I wonder how frustrating it is to you when, after all the effort you put in into this blog, frequent visitors like this Anonymous person still don’t get it.

#36 DonDWest on 02.05.13 at 11:22 pm

#10 Sparky55

What’s funny is I’ve lived in Halifax for two decades and didn’t discover Hammonds Plains until I discovered Viewpoint.

Garth, you truly need to make an article about the McMansions upon newly built McMansions going up in Hammonds Plains that are just not selling. It’s a great representation of how broken real estate is as a market. Seriously, take a drive down there (warning it may take several hours depending on how the Bedford Highway is going). There’s row upon row of 3000+ sq. ft. McMansions selling for a million plus in the middle of nowhere. All of them are built by maybe two or three developers.

What a waste of resources and environment. Obviously before these were built the developers never asked who would be the buyers. . .

#37 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.05.13 at 11:25 pm

Unless there is a major jump in February, average price could drop YOY (look at the average price graph, where February 2012 had pretty much the biggest leap from 2011):
http://guava.ca/indicators.html

#38 Sebee on 02.05.13 at 11:30 pm

Canadian Watchdog,

How convenient that of the 3 revisions made two biggest revisions were to make sales drop look smaller and new listings increase look smaller. I am sure it is just a coincidence.

And thanks for that price drop info on the Potty Executive. Still not worth more than 500k.

#39 Telecon on 02.05.13 at 11:31 pm

#22 Anonymous

That’s assuming you purchased the house with cash. Since Canadians are leveraged up to their eyeballs in debt, we all know nobody is buying with cash. The reality is most Canadians are paying closer to $600k for a $300k house over the entire amortization. Garth consistently emphasizes the foregone investment income/ cap gains from a diversified portfolio built on the savings from renting as opposed paying to paying down a gigantic mortgage with little money down.

#40 Francis on 02.05.13 at 11:35 pm

Dear boy, it’s the same drug “wot was banned already”
but must continue to be dispensed , because Sir Mark and his acomplice the Hon Flaherty do not wish to be caught in the barbed wire.

Bomb shelters are in order. However Sir Mark will be esconced in England and the Hon. Flaherty will be on LTD.

#41 condopoor on 02.05.13 at 11:35 pm

Hey Garth,

Is there any way we can stop or slow the acceptance of Frankenumbers? I feel that the average Canadian has a lot to lose if we let this train roll. We are generally “too nice” to complain. Is this yet another thing that we’ll let happen? I know you represent the people – what can we do? We’ve already let our dog pee on the local realtor’s office, but it doesn’t seem to have helped.

#42 marco on 02.05.13 at 11:37 pm

DELETED. Abusive.

#43 Herb on 02.05.13 at 11:38 pm

Thank you, U of T, for the education you gave me. But for you, I could have wound up like Smoking Man, twisted, not bent (as in Velut arbor aevo).

#44 Snowboid on 02.05.13 at 11:39 pm

#22 █ ♣ █ ANONYMOUS on 02.05.13 at 10:57 pm…

Okay, so 10% down leaves a $ 270K mortgage, say 25 years at 3% (for 2 yrs) – that is $ 30,666 in payments over 2 years – $ 15,700 of which is interest.

Your $ 30K DP would have returned $ 2.5K at 4% interest. Taxes, maintenance and repairs would add another $ 8K over 2 years.

So you have put into the home over 24 months about $ 26,200 in costs and lost investment income a renter wouldn’t have.

So you are sitting in a home worth $ 30K less, so we now have a grand total of $ 56,200 to own the home for 2 years, or…

$ 30K to rent it.

I’m certainly no whiz at math, but it seems a pretty simple calculation to me! RENT!

Patient as ever…

BTW, some economists are suggesting the latest massive buying sprees by large RE investors in Phoenix may be creating another bubble – some say prices are rising too fast!

#45 Musty Basement Wannabe on 02.05.13 at 11:41 pm

After some deep thought today I decided I am very thankful for the mainstream media and Real Estate Agent Cartel in Canada. And the positive spin they place on the present market so wonderfully.

It will give me more time to get outta this house and into a rental. I hope its at least a couple more months before most other average Joes and Mom and Dad and Nonno and Nonna actually figure out what is going on with this real estate market and how much it is costing us in terms of investment and liquidity.

Thank you to the Canadian Real Estate Board. (Sorry I forget that jerks name in charge).
cheers,

#46 Musty Basement Wannabe on 02.05.13 at 11:44 pm

After some deep thought today I decided I am very thankful for the mainstream media and Real Estate Agent Cartel in Canada. And the positive spin they place on the present market so wonderfully.

It will give me more time to get outta this house and into a rental. I hope its at least a couple more months before most other average Joes and Mom and Dad and Nonno and Nonna actually figure out what is going on with this real estate market and how much it is costing us in terms of investment and liquidity.

Thank you to the Canadian Real Estate Board. (Sorry I forget that nice fellows name who is in charge).
cheers,

#47 eager on 02.05.13 at 11:47 pm

Garth, what dou you think about vanguard

#48 squidly77 on 02.05.13 at 11:50 pm

Watchdog

The manipulation of statistical information that real estate boards provide has always been severely manipulated, some realtor run real estate blogs even openly admit to purposely skewing the stats, like the one in Edmonton, they actually inflate sales 6% monthly. Go figure.

This is not news to you or I or many others, difference now is that many, many more eyes are watching.

That Canadian real estate boards smudge the numbers is now commonly known. They have lost what little credibility they ever had.

Here’s a blast from the past. A rockin blast from the past.

The most right in your face real estate blog that ever was.

#49 Canadian Watchdog on 02.05.13 at 11:50 pm

As expected Garth: Carney is in there like a dirty shirt mopping up all those imploding mortgage and government bonds.

From Reuters today:

Bank of Canada buys back C$500 mln of bonds

Bank of Canada to buy back up to C$1 bln of bonds

You can expect lots more of this intervention. The BoC will never let yields rise.

#50 Curios on 02.05.13 at 11:51 pm

“We are in not for a crash, but a long, sustained correction, which is worse.”
Why is a long sustained correction worse than a crash?

Because it’s, ah, long. And sustained. — Garth

#51 Dr. Hoof-Hearted on 02.05.13 at 11:53 pm

I am truly inspired by the British tabloid press

…….it’s the intellectual equivalent of Mexican food….

#52 dutch4505 on 02.05.13 at 11:54 pm

do what i do if you want the real news about real estate and general finances in the lower mainland of bc. while waiting for the next train at the rapid transit station just listen. people are talking to others or talking on their phones. topics include mortgage payment extensions, status of their loc applications, asking their realtor when their place will sell, can i refinance my car, can i increase my visa limit and on and on. i am sure the topics are the same across at every public area in canada.

#53 Vangrrl on 02.05.13 at 11:58 pm

This post was so good I’m tempted to quote you on my facebook status, Garth… How can anyone NOT read this blog?? So funny! !

#54 squidly77 on 02.06.13 at 12:02 am

There are 1,000′s of post on housingpanic, if you want an indication of what lies ahead, read em all. The blog nailed the housing bubble, the American bank bust and Euro credit crisis a year and half before they occurred.

He had epic battles with realtors and trolls along the way, the idiotic and now bankrupted realtor Gregg Swann tried to be his nemesis, unfortunately for the realtor he lacked the brains to compete with his master that hosted HP. He was housingpanics pet mini Dog.

#55 Dr Blayne on 02.06.13 at 12:04 am

Durst I quoth first as I eat my wurst until I burst

#56 Smoking Man on 02.06.13 at 12:05 am

#42 Herb on 02.05.13 at 11:38 pm
Thank you, U of T, for the education you gave me. But for you, I could have wound up like Smoking Man, twisted, not bent (as in Velut arbor aevo).
………………………………………….

Herb your an old fart now….things where different back in your day.

Do you realty wants kids to wayst there money

#57 Aaron- Melbourne on 02.06.13 at 12:07 am

Göran I would love to hear more about the Swedish housing bubble!

I think the anecdotal international comparisons among Modern western economies is pivotal to extinguishing the dominant meme we are all so familiar with – “Its different here”

Some of the things that would be worthy of close examination in the Swedish example would be:
Urban growth boundaries
Planning processes/red tape
Demographic trends
Credit standards
Debt/Savings levels
Investor activity

Hej då!

#58 Patient in Richmond on 02.06.13 at 12:09 am

@ ANONYMOUS
you are so wrong ,

i rent, i have no property tax , no water/electricity bills,house insurance etc and if my ceiling leaks i call the manager and they fix it for free, which they actually just did .These are all costs you did not include in your oh so wise calculation , and this is why we have people who will lose their houses over the next few years …..

#59 Van guy on 02.06.13 at 12:11 am

This happened in Van last year. And look where Van is now. The GTA is one year behind Van.

#60 Musty Basement Wannabe on 02.06.13 at 12:15 am

To #50 dutch4505 . I do the same as you, listen when on the bus , skytrain etc to hear about what people are saying. I am hearing the same as you do about everyone being stretched out financially. I love it when I hear the “good time to buy” opinions, or, “I’ve taken my house or condo off the market till it bounces back” opinions. I don’t know, maybe they’re right but I’d be willing to bet heavily against the most prevalent opinions out there of us working folks. Still lotso horny young buyers out there too, hope they don’t get burnt like some of the recent ones are enroute to doing.

#61 Goody Niosi on 02.06.13 at 12:31 am

does apple make the iKea?

#62 squidly77 on 02.06.13 at 12:33 am

When it ends, this is what it will be.
RIP.

#63 squidly77 on 02.06.13 at 12:35 am

You have to scroll up to read my last link, trustme, it’s worth it. Clowns.

#64 Don on 02.06.13 at 12:43 am

#14 Smoking Man

You are bang on, most provincial governments are seriously entertaining the scenario especially as it is easily scalable and less infrastructure is needed, but then again it takes discipline and structure.

#65 DM in C on 02.06.13 at 12:44 am

Million dollar houses in Hammond’s Plains. HAMMOND’S PLAINS! I can just imagine the traffic. $360k for 1.5 storey on the peninsula seems a bargain. My parents should take the money and run.

Can’t believe our first house in Halifax was in ’99 and was $75k — and the owner had to get the chimney repointed first.

People are delusional everywhere. At least Calgary has jobs (well, except for all those 400+ SMART people who got the boot two weeks before xmas).

#66 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 02.06.13 at 12:46 am

@#35 DonDWest
“McMansions selling for a million plus in the middle of nowhere”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
You’re telling me.
That people
in Halifax.
Are buying houses for $1,000,000.00 + in the burbs known as ……Hammonds Plains…..

Bwahahahahahahahahahahaha! OMG

Please provide proof to that incredulous statement.

#67 Real-e-horny on 02.06.13 at 12:54 am

Legendary investor says “Be worried about 2013-2014″
What do you think of Jim, Garth?

He said the same last year, right? — Garth

#68 Real-e-horny on 02.06.13 at 12:56 am

Legendary Investor = Jim Rogers

#69 richmond bc on 02.06.13 at 12:58 am

Teachers are horribly overpaid for their jobs because there is no accountability. Granted there are some who are actually very good at their jobs, but they earn the same as the ones who are really bad at their jobs too. The union ensure that their pay scale is according to time served as well as education upgrades. My kids have been “taught” by complete idiots in the public school system who would have a very difficult time finding employment in any other field. Yeah, you know who you are. Yet there is a big fat pension waiting for them when they retire. At least my kids learned one thing, “Life isn’t fair. Get a teaching job if you aren’t bright so you can go on strike every other year to get more pay.”

#70 Joseph J. Roy on 02.06.13 at 12:59 am

Garth,

Conquering Vikings (793 – 1100 CE) were from Danemark and Norway. Although we can affirm Scandanavians are Vikings, there exist a distinction between “Swedish” and “Danish/Norwegian” Vikings. The Danish and Norwegian expeditions went westwards, concentrating on Western Europe and England: attackign Celtic villages and pillagering Monasteries. The Swedish, on the other hand, went mostly eastwards into modern-day Russia and further on to Byzantium and the Caliphate (Islamist World).

The Vikings are long gone; no need to fear the next amphibious attack landing on your shores. They have mortgages to pay now!

#71 Alberta Ed on 02.06.13 at 1:05 am

“We don’t hurl our naked, steaming, sauna-sautéed bodies into some icy fjord while grasping half-sucked bottles of Absolut.”

…Dang!

#72 Freedom First on 02.06.13 at 1:07 am

Garth, this has to be one of your most delightfully eloquent blogs:)…….I’d even bet that Sherry Cooper adds it to her favorites.

Speaking of Sherry Cooper, Garth, do you know if she and Brad Lamb are husband and wife? They do look and sound like they were made for each other.

#73 Brew on 02.06.13 at 1:08 am

@#67 Richmond BC

Let me guess you got the strap more than I did in primary school.

#74 TEMPLE on 02.06.13 at 1:13 am

#16 Inglorious Investor on 02.05.13 at 10:48 pm

I’m sorry, I just don’t agree with anything you said. You are incredibly wrong or deliberately trying to mislead people. You desperately need a few of those teachers you so readily malign.

I encourage you to try and get some real facts about what the civil service actually costs, what it does, and the values it preserves for Canadians. Stay away from the neocon hate-tanks that you cited in your previous posts- their stuff is propaganda.

You need to learn the difference between fact and ideology.

Best wishes,

TEMPLE

#75 EDMONTONIAN on 02.06.13 at 1:17 am

Same story repeated here in the Edmonton Journal. Housing sales of to strong start, market surging ahead.
But if you like at the price per square foot from December to January the prices went down in all categories, condos down by 5% per square foot, in just one month. Our own Alberta Real Estate Board are just full of it. I’ll never forget when a realtor told me they were told prices should go up 15% in 2008, and they WENT DOWN here in Edmonton 15%! Oild prices hit $147 a barrel that summer, why did prices plunge? Because soooo many Albertans have maxed themselves out, they couldn’t afford the gas bills! LOL

#76 Devore on 02.06.13 at 1:18 am

#48 Curios

Why is a long sustained correction worse than a crash?

I know everyone’s all into this “soft landing”, and intervention, and counter-cyclical stimulus, and all that mumbo jumbo. But ultimately a long melt means many years of shitty household balance sheets, tight-fisted consumers, and crappy domestic economy. Many households and companies can ride out a few months of tough times, but not a few years. At the end, after making a mess of everything, politicians can stand up and say “at least we tried to do something about it, like you demanded”.

#77 Dr. Hoof Hearted on 02.06.13 at 1:26 am

This is Canada, not Sweden, after all. We don’t hurl our naked, steaming, sauna-sautéed bodies into some icy fjord while grasping half-sucked bottles of Absolut. Get a grip, Göran. Keep your Nordic depravities where they belong. And solve your own real estate bloat.

Damn Vikings.

===================================

Not sure why Garth is pissed off at Vikings..

Is it why they didn’t make the Super Bowl……I even told him Ravens all the way.

#78 Kingarthur on 02.06.13 at 1:28 am

When did this blog become a soapbox for slagging teachers? If you think teaching (or whichever occupation you choose to critcize) is so easy, why not try it yourself? No, I’m not a teacher, but I’m not a jealous whiner either.

#79 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.06.13 at 1:44 am

-
Snow pix for two days. Are you turning us into a bunch of half-assed snorting cocaine addicts? This is the Caribbean, mon!

“We are in not for a crash, but a long, sustained correction, a frothy time of urban excess exceeding even the aphrodisiac high of eating Swedish meatballs in the nude while listing to an 8-track of The Dancing Queen. Multiple bids were everywhere which is worse.” — Never tried afrodizziac meedish sweetballs, but there’s a first time for everything!

“. . . and rely instead on the slowly-bankrupting mainstream media.” — Methinx you have a point there. It goes along the lines of this.
*
Male Inventions Brains are not one them; Conroversial Bill ,cite>”The politicians in New Mexico want to steal the gold and silver. No wonder they want the guns!”; Rise of the Droids Replacing workers, and further to ‘Droids replacing humans; Record drop in clothes prices; Billionaire battle; Dell buys Dell; Signs of things to come; 40:36 doc. Fighting back against globalization; Aaron Swartz Girlfriend gives another view; Cisco Future chatter / creations; Google’s new ofices in Tel Aviv; Mongolian gold rush; Argentina Wage and Price Controls? Currency Wars Why no one will win them.
*
Socialist State Theft and control in the US; 8.0 ‘quake Santa Cruz islands, and Update; Lazy Most people can walk 110 yards, but this minister can’t; David Attenborough No more safaris; The Bionic Man Albeit devalued from six to one million; Long Tall Cat who (due to cancer) finished its lifecycle; Space Storms Curious to see what happens, and Thundersnow; 1:30 clip Dad films plane crash from inside the plane; Gun Control and Medicare One covers the other; Climate Change “The latest numbers are : Antarctic +.66 million km² Arctic -,63 million km²”; Obama in Action Photoshop is a wonderful tool. See pix; US and Canada Harmonizing border issues; 1:19:11 doc. Iran is not the problem, the other ‘I’ country is; 21 Foods Better than pills / meds; Aspartame Rebranded ‘Natural’ sweetener; Undersea Cable Maps; Bionic Eyes coming soon; Greece – Germany Neo-fascist party moving into Germany; Machu Picchu New things being found there.

#80 Smoking Man's Old Man on 02.06.13 at 1:47 am

I’m guessing that the guy in today’s pic is the former husband of the blondie in yesterdays pic and the snow symbolizes that debt she left him buried under (high maintenance) as she runs off to ruin some other guys life…

And no I’m not bitter

#81 robert on 02.06.13 at 1:51 am

It all depends how you define a crash. In the Interior of BC it is not uncommon to see 50k drops in asking and another 15k in the actual selling price. Looked at a house today started with a $469,000 price tag, is now asking $429,000 and the realtor says they are motivated. That tells me it could be bought between 400k and 410k. Another home had an assessed value of $429,000 and has just sold for 389k. In my world this is more than a slow correction and my guess is if the spring market does not improve the RE market will find itself on a very slippery slope going into fall. Be careful not to get sucked into the thinking of another greater fool. The only thing that would save this market right now in my opinion would be for the Government to reintroduce 40 year mortgages. 5% down or no down cashbacks and extended terms with lower rates. In other words a return to kicking the can down the road for a few more years. Donot hold your breath!!!

#82 Hung Lo on 02.06.13 at 1:51 am

Hey Richmond bc: did you have a bad day? I suggest a hot bath and a good cry rather than a poison filled rant about teachers on a blog about finance.

#83 DonDWest on 02.06.13 at 2:24 am

#64 CrowdedElevatorfartz

If you’re registered with Viewpoint, here’s one honourable mention (this house actually sold):

http://www.viewpoint.ca/sidebarmap#!/overview/40854093/zoom/13

There are many copies of the following house selling mostly in the range of 500K to 1.2 million in Hammonds Plains. Nobody is actually buying the properties though. Honestly, the whole situation leaves me scratching my head. . .

#84 dosouth on 02.06.13 at 2:32 am

A few posts ago I replied to someone who was singing the praises of Moody’s. Now and along with S & P, they are in the cross-hairs of the U.S. Gov’t now…..

If you can’t bring them down criminally hit them in the pocket book – hope this sticks (to them this time)…

http://business.time.com/2013/02/05/u-s-sues-sp-over-pre-crisis-mortgage-ratings/

#85 Humpty Dumpty on 02.06.13 at 2:36 am

Hey CW….

There a fresh start….

Introducing Amazon Coins: A New Virtual Currency

Today we announced the upcoming launch of Amazon Coins, a new virtual currency for U.S. customers to purchase apps, games, and in-app items on Kindle Fire.

http://www.amazonappstoredev.com/2013/02/introducing-amazon-coins.html

#86 John Dominsas on 02.06.13 at 2:36 am

The 1 billion in bonds that the Bank of Canada is buying every month is financial repression. Basically, manipulating interest rates to be kept low or from not rising much. This is why they call it a central bank or if it was any other entity or business a monopoly or cartel. This is just more help to keep the debt junkies buying more stuff like a drug addict. The more they keep interest low, the more I will spend less. The brainwashing is not working on me.

#87 John Dominsas on 02.06.13 at 2:55 am

Garth turner is #1.

#88 Humpty Dumpty on 02.06.13 at 3:08 am

Don’t Sell Your Gold and Silver Coins: Jim Roger

In the meantime, he advises investors not to sell their gold and silver coins. “There is no paper money in 2014 or 2015 that will be worth much of anything,” he says.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/don-t-sell-gold-silver-jim-rogers-152159976.html

Im sure he will keep saying the same thing next year G..

#89 Humpty Dumpty on 02.06.13 at 3:29 am

Vlad
Jess
Radman

“Many people want the government to protect the consumer. A much more urgent problem is to protect the consumer from the government”.
Milton Friedman

http://gordontlong.com/Articles/art-2013-02-Statism–USofA.htm

Many people feel safe keeping their heads in the snow…

#90 JuliaS on 02.06.13 at 3:36 am

#67 richmond bc

Every public sector union is as you describe. Union leaders use their willing or unwilling members to put pressure onto politicians via votes and occasional strikes in order to extort more and more money out of the private sector. What the members get in exchange is a share of the loot while the getting is good, provided their rank allows it. The lower ends feed on the false guarantee of job security that vanishes the moment tax revenues collapse and their precious organizations are forced to trim “fat”.

Slash everyone’s salary to preserve jobs, or let the lower ranks fend for themselves? Hmm… what a dilemma! Guess which option they always go for.

Union members are pawns in the administrative game. Union leaders are in bed with local politicians dictating the policy, everyone else gets milked dry.

I’ve been pressured into a union many times. I’ve faced ultimatums where the only option for securing a position was to go through a union. I refused every single time.

My salary is based on my performance and on what market is willing to bear. I have no guarantees in life and I demand none. I do not have “bargaining rights” to money in someone else’s pocket and I do not believe in entitlements of any kind.

#91 Humpty Dumpty on 02.06.13 at 3:37 am

Inglor Invest….

If you haven’t heard this yet, I encourage you to listen…

http://www.ted.com/talks/ken_robinson_says_schools_kill_creativity.html?utm_expid=166907-14&utm_referrer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ted.com%2Fpages%2Finitiatives_tedtalks

Keep the faith…

#92 Buy? Curious? on 02.06.13 at 4:29 am

Garth, I think Dennis Miller wants his act back. You dropped more metaphors than farts in an elevator from a hungover realtor.

Why can’t these real estate boards be accountable for their numbers that they’re constantly revising?

Why don’t people stop entirely using real estate agents for 6months? A complete strike to push for changes. Would that help?

Can I find a woman to join me for some disco dancing revival this Saturday?

#93 John B. on 02.06.13 at 4:37 am

Brilliant. I have witnesset such “optimism” on some realtor pages (Positive Outlook of Canadian Real Estate Market in 2013). We have to keep in mind its their living which is at stake. And emotions are still the strongest friend of any seller. On the other hand, 3000 free condo units in Toronto city center? Well they will not be able to hide it for a long time. Or at least this is what I hope, because the market needs to go to the bottom right now.

#94 John Dominsas on 02.06.13 at 4:38 am

A good way to stop people getting into too much debt is put a debt tax and bankruptcy tax. The bankruptcy tax would be at least $5,000.00. An annual 5% tax on all debt balances expect your primary residence would have a $300,000 exclusion for a married couple/common law etc. The annual debt tax would have a maximum annual tax of $15,000 and the interest would be excluded.This would make people incur less debt and reduce the amortization periods like 84 month car loans and 25 year mortgages, credit card minimum payments paid over 15 years plus and paying only the interest on lines of credits. Tax the irresponsible of society.

#95 Carpe Diem on 02.06.13 at 4:42 am

My kids have Kievan Rus’ blood (I married a hot Ukraine babe) and are Viking descendents. They have no debt, have RESPs and shall have no debt as thought by me by my father and his father before that (all cheap ass French Canadians). Do not fear what my sons shall do to your shores but what they shall do to your daughters.

#96 Asse on 02.06.13 at 7:16 am

While in Halifax 1.5 years ago we looked at real estate in Bedford Falls and Clayton Park. This was during the leadup to the announcement of the shipbuilding contracts. Prices were surprising. Of course we were told that there would be incredible demand in a little while, but 500k to 600k for new subdivision with NO real property. Maybe we’ll stop by again in April. It’ll be interesting because there really hasn’t been any economic activity due to the shipbuilding as yet.
Halifax’s economy is almost entirely based on service. Couple of universities, naval base, and regional Hospital hub.
Know someone who just listed a house this week in Clayton park. Original 70′s bungalow untouched (father in law’s consulting firm built 1500 homes in this area) First offer in 2 days. 2 more viewings today. Seems to be an active market despite an exceptionally cold snowy winter there.

#97 tkid on 02.06.13 at 7:40 am

“Never tried afrodizziac meedish sweetballs, but there’s a first time for everything!”

I might use this as my email signature for the day.

#98 Asse on 02.06.13 at 8:12 am

A long, sustained (without little blue pills) real estate correction/realignment would mitigate economic activity or lack thereof. Many are able to buckle down and do what they must. Seen it in 89 when real estate went over the cliff. I also know an appointed judge and a CA that went bankrupt because of 89. BANKRUPT only on paper.
When the TFSA’s were introduced there was a loophole for the initiated. It was possible to transfer large capital positions, pay a relatively small penalty, cash out your positions, and take out your cash. All with no tax implications other than the penalty. Ideal for those that held investments already capital depreciated. This was closed within 8 months and warranted a small mention in the financial rags. Not the first time this was done. Every generation gets their kick at the can, if you’re initiated. For the rest, we’ll you can use little blue pills, oh and a well diversified portfolio earning at best 5%.
Amusing how people apply their own metaphors to your images Garth. Just figured it was a belated groundhog day. Some people just have to have their head buried.

Inglorious, St. Mikes for your boy. Cost less than daycare, excellent post secondary percentage, and he can play hockey. I’m pleased with our decision. Good luck.

#99 Alain Savard on 02.06.13 at 8:40 am

Hi Garth, I am one of your biggest fans, you hammer in the same message in every blog and make people think twice before blindly jumping into real estate. And that is fantastic! Is there any chance you could hammer in a second message? And that is that they should never, ever, ever call the company on the for sale sign. That they should always, always, always purchase through a different firm, one that doesn’t have a legal obligation to the seller and is 100% free to represent them as buyer agent on the purchase. A firm without any obvious conflict of interest that they could more easily sue if a buying mistake was ever made. Hammering in this second message would generate hundreds of questions and provide you with the opportunity to explain how real estate commissions are split and why hiring a buyer agent from a different firm is 100% free to buyers on almost all MLS purchases. Think of the amount of interest this would generate. Your readers want to know and they trust you. You’d be doing them a great favour.

#100 Asse on 02.06.13 at 9:03 am

Inglorious, I only suggested St. Mikes because I assumed you have the wherewithal to pay based on your ability to quote historical authors of economic principals/theory. You do have a professional designation/career? Hope it’s not just a bachelor’s of BZ? Regardless, you’re opinions are relevant on this Site.
I’m just a lucky, thankful, appreciative blue shirter who’s been taught to be humble.

#101 jess on 02.06.13 at 9:08 am

inglorious investor

you seem to have negative opinon on public mismanagement and overspending ….what are your thoughts on this article?
http://www.therecord.com/opinion/columns/article/881364–from-too-big-to-fail-to-too-big-to-jail

#102 Tony on 02.06.13 at 9:16 am

Re: #13 bubu on 02.05.13 at 10:43 pm

I’ve tried to straighten them out on that blog. I could have told them worst but one thing for sure is oil will plummet in price. I’m short oil since February the 1st this year.

#103 -=jwk=- on 02.06.13 at 9:16 am

#22anonymous

We are paying 18000yr rent on a house that costs 659000 to buy. Where do you live where houses only cost 300,000? The 1980′s?

#104 hangfire on 02.06.13 at 9:39 am

Speaking of nanny states….Canada takes a dive off the high board on a national lack of rugged individualism.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/02/05/matt-gurney-new-mother-who-didnt-like-her-work-hours-should-have-found-a-new-job-not-a-human-rights-case/

Take a guess at how much this unionized workplace silliness costs the rest of us?

Do work for the National Post, or just move your lips when you read? — Garth

#105 hangfire on 02.06.13 at 9:44 am

#94 Carp….Viking was a thing to do….not a people….to go Viking meant to head out on a pillaging run…..or to ‘ransack’…as they called it. Ran is the Rus word for house….sack….means bag…..put the two together and you have ‘grab the house contents and put thewm in your bag’….

You’re right in knowing that the people you refer to still call themselves ‘Rus’…..the traditional name of the northern tribes.

The term Viking is not how the norse called themselves…it is what they did……they would show up and say…’we’re Viking’……meaning…’we’re here to take away you’re stuff…..in a bag.’

#106 Burnt Norton on 02.06.13 at 9:49 am

Do you work for the National Post, or just move your lips when you read? — Garth

545 am and I almost spat out my Cheerios reading that – so funny. Better than coffee, almost.

#107 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 02.06.13 at 9:59 am

@#82 DonDWest
Ahhhhhh Ha! It’s 1.2 acres on a golf course. Starting to make a bit of sense.
Why anyone would want to live on a golf course is beyond me. I love golf.
But the thought of golf balls landing in my yard while I’m bbqing, sitting around, gardening,etc. is beyond my ideal place. Plus the added fun of some golfer cursing a blue streak after a flubbed shot at 6am on a nice quiet Sunday morning…..
Or the dents in your aluminum siding, broken windows, etc…. Nope.

Not my idea of fun.

And when a golfer( sober or drunk) comes crashing through your hedge demanding “his” golf ball back….enjoy the vile curses to follow…..

Yup, pure fun.

#108 Herb on 02.06.13 at 10:08 am

“Do work for the National Post, or just move your lips when you read? — Garth”

Nice squelch, Garth, but hangfire and the National Post are only robowriters in the Great Right Wrong Cause.

#109 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 02.06.13 at 10:14 am

@#91 Buy? Curious?
Your comment” You dropped more metaphors than farts in an elevator from a hungover realtor.”

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

While incredibly amusing and appropriate…….

Please refrain, yer stealing my “thunder” as it were :)

#110 EIT on 02.06.13 at 10:14 am

He said the same last year, right? — Garth

Haven’t you said the same thing for years? ’cause of your resolve.

Yes, but I’m right. — Garth

#111 Herb on 02.06.13 at 10:21 am

The pig:

602 units were sold in the month, an 11.7-per-cent drop from the 682 reported in January 2012. It was the most sluggish January for home sales since 2009.

And the lipstick:

OREB’s Lee said that while the market is slumping, it likely will rebound soon. He pointed to a recently released report by Ottawa real estate research firm Shore-Tanner and Associates that said Ottawa’s population will continue to increase, and those new people will require homes.

Read more: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Ottawa+home+sales+slow+January/7920571/story.html#ixzz2K82kfBcY

#112 Asse on 02.06.13 at 10:27 am

Carpe Diem, good to see you can afford a life on this blog. Still lmao. Garth does good work.

#113 S-J on 02.06.13 at 10:29 am

#90 Humpty Dumpty

A brilliant talk given by Ken Robinson and delivered with such humour!

It certainly was the case during my school years.

He has a book on this, titled “Out of Our Minds – Learning to be Creative”.

#114 Rand man on 02.06.13 at 10:30 am

Humpty

Great article and encourage all to read….
Gordon Long is a credible and thoughtful analyst

The part that struck me was that both the left and right
Are different forms of socialism…..

A lightbulb went on at that passage…suddenly all politics makes sense

I couldn’t help but think that these policies create an
Unnaturally balance in our species ….

And we all know how nature responds in order to keep things in alignment…..

I would not want to bring a child into the world today..knowing of the impending disaster

As Benjamin Button said….

“Sometimes we’re on a collision course, and we just don’t know it. Whether it’s by accident or by design, there’s not a thing we can do about it. “

#115 rosie "moving forward" on 02.06.13 at 10:33 am

#90

Schools kill creativity? A life of mindless servitude to acquire stuff to jam into a big house to show off to your family and friends and then to spend 40 years paying it off kills creativity. An education only makes you aware of what a dick you were after it’s too late. You want the freedom to be creative and to imagine? Keep reading the blog, moving forward.

#116 Canadian Watchdog on 02.06.13 at 10:44 am

#68 richmond bc #16 Inglorious Investor #73 TEMPLE

Source 1: The Leader-Post – Nov 10, 1975

Source 2: Globe and Mail

Teachers’ salaries in B.C. for the 60 school districts range from an average starting salary of $47,461 to an average maximum of $75,083. The teachers’ federation, in a report entitled 2011 Canadian Teacher Salary Rankings: Provinces and Territories, compared salaries across Canada. Rankings were based on a selection of cities in the larger provinces and the Northwest Territories, and on provincewide figures for the Maritimes, Nunavut, Yukon and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Calculations with Bank of Canada's inflation calculator.

Source 1: Min Salary (1975) : $11,575 Max Salary (1975): $24,820
Inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars: Min: $46,876 Max: $100,516

Source 2: Min Salary (2012) : $47,461 Max Salary (2012): $75,083
Inflation adjusted to 1975 dollars: Min: $11,719 Max: $18,539

——–

Other stats:

In 1956 the average salary for lawyers was $11,925 ($99,565 2012 dollars) Today the average salary is $119,732 or $14,340 in 1956 dollars.

In 1956 the average salary for engineers was $12,059 ($100,684 2012 dollars) Today the average salary is $63,941 or $7,658 in 1956 dollars.

In 1956 the average salary for a nurse was $1,993 ($16,640 2012 dollars) Today nurses receive around $75,000 or $8,980 in 1956 dollars.

#117 Real-e-horny on 02.06.13 at 10:48 am

Legendary investor says “Be worried about 2013-2014″
What do you think of Jim, Garth?

He said the same last year, right? — Garth

No offense, but we’ve been hearing the same message on this blog since 09′ and still not there yet.
His 1 year off is nothing comparatively.

Actually we are there. — Garth

#118 The Prophet Elijah on 02.06.13 at 10:51 am

Garth what impact will there be to Calgary RE if Suncor cancel’s their 1.5 billion oil sands Voyageur project? Thx!

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/02/06/suncor-suffers-first-loss-in-more-than-3-years-as-cheap-oil-hits-voyageur-project/

Get out of Dodge. — Garth

#119 Inglorious Investor on 02.06.13 at 10:54 am

#73 TEMPLE on 02.06.13 at 1:13 am

The facts are the facts, no matter how you happen to perceive the world from inside your reality distortion field.

#120 jess on 02.06.13 at 10:59 am

what about irresponsible subgroup of society
“[M]any economists still seem not to understand that a combination of circumstances in the 1980s made it very easy to loot a financial institution with little risk of prosecution. Once this is clear, it becomes obvious that high-risk strategies that would pay off only in some states of the world were only for the timid. Why abuse the system to pursue a gamble that might pay off when you can exploit a sure thing with little risk of prosecution?” (Akerlof & Romer 1993: 4-5).

Akerlof, George A. and Romer, Paul M., Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit (April 1994). NBER Working Paper No. R1869. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=227162

=========
EASY or TIGHT

The Great depression and Friedman-schwart hypothesis
http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/Workpaper/2003/wp03-18.pdf

http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/MoneySupply.html
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/92/03/Depression_Mar_Apr1992.pdf

While the liquidationist theory of the business cycle was commonly believed in the early 1930s,…
Friedman and Schwartz see Quantity Theory explanation of the Depression:.
-an increase in the money stock would have offset, if not prevented, banking panics, and would have led to increased lending to consumers and business that would have revived the economy.

#121 Asse on 02.06.13 at 11:11 am

Tony, equity markets will reach apex this year. They will need a new scam. Expect market movers to adjust price of oil UP. Price has no relevance to reality, only price elasticity. No cost relevance to supply and demand or lack of economic fundamentals. This will be an interesting year.

#122 Regan on 02.06.13 at 11:12 am

So much bad math. Forget literacy, what’s happened to numeracy? Here’s some more ‘missing’ math – my work’s RRSP mutual fund company seems unable to calculate my YOY ROI, personalized to me, inclusive of fees and starting from day 1 of the account. I’m pretty sure they have machines that can do this, but no. Apparently they only have time to send me some generic stats of their best performing funds and ‘in the last 90 years the stock market has averaged a 9% annual return.’ Okay…. except who survives 90 years, is fully invested from day 1, has no fees or costs, who never invests in a stock that gets dropped off the exchanged… and who cares anyway? I just want to know why the bottom line of this “average 9%” fund is lower than my 2% GIC I started at the same time. Oh right, your fees and everyone else’s fees too. Thanks. I knew the math was missing something.
Ditto with the bad math about owning a house. I’ve owned for 20 years, in one of the best markets in history and I’m STILL not sure it’s been a good investment. I won’t really know until I sell, will I? But even doing a ‘to-date’ calculation would involve repairs (I didn’t use cash, but did spend time that could have spent doing other things), it’s been a forced savings plan (thanks for forcing me not to go on that vacation trip I always wanted because I was house poor) and an investment of sorts (bonus payoff period only really begins when it’s paid for …terrible ROI on that, but amazing risk management against illness or job loss. There’s capital appreciation which isn’t taxed, nor should it be, when you consider the mortgage fees and sales fees that have eaten a hole in the final profit). Why is this math missing from our society?
Numeracy. Seriously. It needs to a thing.

#123 Dupcheck on 02.06.13 at 11:13 am

At least in Sweden they use “geothermal energy” its free, something that we Canadians should have picked up 2 decades ago. We are still afraid of any new inventions. By the way is it me or nice up to date things are hard to find here when compared to US. Example: Home Depot website in US has tons more choice compared to Canadian version. Same with Lowes. Same with amazon.com vs. amazon.ca, we are in general 2 to 3 years behind in technology when compared to our neighbors, and 5 years behind when compared to EU. What is wrong with us? Why do we say we are better, when we clearly suck at a lot of things?

#124 Inglorious Investor on 02.06.13 at 11:15 am

#90 Humpty Dumpty on 02.06.13 at 3:37 am

Having two children in the public school system, I can tell you that they do stifle creativity. They prefer obedience over critical thought, and conformity over creativity and self expression.

The sad part is, educators, and most parents don’t even realize that they are doing it because they have a rather limited frame of reference. The individual teachers aren’t doing it on purpose. They do mean well. They simply don’t recognize how oppressive the system actually is.

I am consistently “deprogramming” my kids such that they can take away the positive lessons from school while encouraging their creativity and independent, critical thought.

That said, once in a while you do come across a more enlightened teacher who does attempt to encourage these things.

#125 DM in C on 02.06.13 at 11:25 am

#98 Alain:

He’s already addressed this, numerous times (google is your friend):

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/10/21/how-to-buy/

Have your own agent.
The listing agent works for the seller. Even if you enter into a relationship with that person (dual agency) you are now working with someone whose first loyalty was elsewhere. Personally I’d never buy a home without my own representation – an experienced person who will help argue for my point of view and provide the necessary buffer and foil. BTW, this person will end up being paid by the seller. What’s not to love?

+++
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/11/13/the-trouble-with-bras/

First, you should always have your own agent when buying. Always. No exceptions. Some people think if they just deal with the seller’s (listing) agent they’ll somehow get a better deal since he’s getting all the commission, and will be mellow as a result. This is crap. You’re going into battle naked.

#126 Inglorious Investor on 02.06.13 at 11:33 am

#100 jess on 02.06.13 at 9:08 am

I’ve read more such articles than I can count. Matt Taibbi over at Rolling Stone magazine has done some excellent work exposing the fraud, corruption and illegalities. Terri Buhl does good work to. William K. Black. Catherine Austin Fitts, Janet Tavakoli. I can go on… There is no shortage of good investigative journalism and analysis happening in this area. It’s just that very little is reported in the MSM, where most people receive their version of reality.

If you’ve read any of my comments on the Fed and the financial and monetary systems, you’d know I have no love for the big banks. Or the regulators who are supposed to oversee them. Even the Justice Department abets the crimes. (Google Lanny Breuer.) They are in cahoots.

I actually watched the Goldman Sachs hearings in front of Senator Levin’s subcommittee. The fraud these guys perpetrated was so blatant it was utterly disgusting. However, from what I could tell, they were smart enough to not actually break any laws. Not difficult when the laws are skewed to support your fraud.

Obviously it must be stopped for all our sakes, and the criminals should be prosecuted. Maybe one day.

#127 AprilNewwest on 02.06.13 at 11:40 am

#80 Robert
Why should this market be saved? It needs a big correction to get back to sanity.

#128 Mixed Bag on 02.06.13 at 11:41 am

#1 Short Vowels on 02.05.13 at 10:30 pm

Fjordst!

——————–

If ever there were an entertaining “first”, it was this one.

#129 wxman44 on 02.06.13 at 11:43 am

Since you brought up Sherry Cooper I thought I would add some anecdotes. I recall Sherry Cooper back in 2001 stating on CBC that the new economy was here to stay and that the Nasdaq was not overvalued. She repeated the claim again 6 months later after the Nasdaq collapses. As far as I know it has never returned to the lofty levels of that time and its been 12 years. Practically everything she has said has been wrong and she used to be a media darling especially on CBC but they finally smartened up and stopped asking for her advice..even the CBC must have figured out how horrible her advice was. If she thinks real estate is fairly valued then we should all sell our houses now..seriously.

#130 Ozy - You are missing some important variables on 02.06.13 at 11:44 am

You are missing an important variable, that explains why does not take longer to sell when there are 11% more listings and why people are paying 7% above asking, or more than last January.
You can’t do the math one way, there are roughly I feel 6 months of full inventory of BUYERS that have nothing quality to buy, so they are what I call “hidden passive demand”. It will smoth the drop and graph will move SEE-SAW maybe with 10% up then 10% down or in between. Long term (5 y from now) you will be right Garth, this orgy is unsustainable, but for the present look at aall variables, incl what real people wish for. Look at the desirable female \ male ration in GTA and you will find reasons why we are different. So, since you can’t quantify the hidden passive buyers that would buy should a decent property\price become available, nor the hormonic competition on unbalanced desireable female\male ratio, and at least one more which have to do with demographics but I can’t say as some people won’t understand it and will rush to label it racial or segregatory, I say let some slack in those predictions , because many people tend to believe too much of what you say and they continue renting with cockroaches, cheap areas/schools, bed-bugs, inflexible landlords, waiting for the tropical paraside to happen in cold-blooded kanata, etc
Let’s agree this market is more complex than we can comprehend, in a new-global post-collonial system that is Kanata, with an USD inflated by day.
I say, go speak with 28 y old couple wiht a pres-school age kid leaving in a cramped kondo (or worse, 2 kids in a rental), or a virgin 19y girl at York University (just arrived) so find out where people want to be and then we talk, I would expect from a well konnected kanatian to know the local market, better than a remote yet sweet Sweeden.

#131 AK on 02.06.13 at 11:50 am

#1 Short Vowels on 02.05.13 at 10:30 pm

“Fjordst!”

#5 Real-e-horny on 02.05.13 at 10:39 pm

“Foist!!?”

Yeah. Whatever. Nobody cares, Losers….

#132 Purple on 02.06.13 at 11:52 am

The more real estate boards spin the more I stay put. It would be nice if they would just help the inevitable happen sooner rather than later.

#133 Tony on 02.06.13 at 11:53 am

Lol, Garth compares buying a house as an investment to purchasing ETF and preferred shares. Apples and banana’s pal

Also, taking a mortgage of say 200,000, and saying ‘rather than buying a house, put the 200,000 at 5%, blah blah blah. Garth, banks don’t lend people 200,000 to invest in ETF, equities and preferred shares. You’re living in a dream world bud.

There is nothing wrong with buying a house. Get a good downpayment (at least 25%). Buy modest, and ensure you account for all other housing costs, and enjoy your life. If you buy at the wrong time, lessson learned – all good. Its not the end of the world.

Put all your net worth in one thing? Good luck. — Garth

#134 The Prophet Elijah on 02.06.13 at 11:59 am

“The net loss in the fourth quarter was $562 million, or 37 cents a share, the biggest in at least two decades, compared with net income of $1.43 billion, or 91 cents, a year ago, the Calgary-based company said Tuesday in a statement that also disclosed it faces a possible $1.2 billion tax bill. Operating earnings fell 30% to $1 billion.”

Suncor’s loss was worse than in 2008 when oil hit $30/barrel. This is terrible news for the oil sands, energency interest rates won’t save RE in Calgary this time.

#135 jess on 02.06.13 at 12:13 pm

fire your father to hire your son?

HistorySee also: Social Security (United States)
The assignment, furlough, and recall of most railroad employees was based on seniority. When work became scarce, employees with the least seniority were the first to be laid-off. The majority of railroaders were covered by pension plans, but private pension payments could be reduced if revenues were down, and many had been cut drastically by 1932.

This practice created a conflict between older employees, who preferred the certainty of a paycheck to an unreliable pension, and younger employees, who saw opportunity for increased job security if superannuated workers could be induced to retire by guaranteeing them a decent pension
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railroad_Retirement_Board

More than 90% of LIRR retirees applied for disability benefits from the RRB to supplement their pension — a disproportionately high percentage in relation to other railroads — and the RRB approved almost every application for the benefit.

The investigation also exposed a cottage industry that has developed among certain doctors and consultants to assist LIRR employees in exploiting the system.”

Thirty-two people have now been charged in connection with the LIRR disability fraud scheme, eight of whom have now pled guilty.
http://www.ag.ny.gov/press-release/attorney-general-cuomo-obtains-agreement-long-island-rail-road-independent-examiner
http://www.fbi.gov/newyork/press-releases/2012/four-long-island-railroad-retirees-plead-guilty-in-manhattan-federal-court-in-connection-with-disability-fraud-scheme

http://www.immediateannuities.com/annuitymuseum/railroadannuities/

#136 Snolwboid on 02.06.13 at 12:21 pm

#73 TEMPLE on 02.06.13 at 1:13 am…

Don’t let the likes of Inglorious Investor (and Hangfire, Truth Hammer, etc) get to you – they espouse an ideology based on the promotion of ignorance.

For example:

The median pension for BC Teachers last year was $29,439. (source: BC Pension Corp)

If they had worked 35 years that would calculate to a $ 42,143 salary (based on the average of the five-year highest salary) at retirement.

The BC plans’ investments cover 75% of all pensions, and is almost fully funded (98%).

Back in 2005, Senior IT staff in BC were getting about $ 45 an hour benefits included. They worked along contractors doing the exact same job for $ 100 an hour!

Despite a vigourous campaign to hide the true costs of ‘privatization’, it was obvious in BC that the private sector could not provide the same service at the same public service cost. In fact, they ended up providing less service for a higher cost.

But why would purveyors of ignorance want to deal with facts!

#137 Snowboid on 02.06.13 at 12:27 pm

Last post was using my Swedish name, sorry…

#89 JuliaS on 02.06.13 at 3:36 am…

Balderdash!

#118 Inglorious Investor on 02.06.13 at 10:54 am…

Love your posts from another dimension, and love your blog!

#138 Astronaut down on 02.06.13 at 12:27 pm

#14 Smoking Man

You picked up C# in a few days? Unless you have previous experience with VB, C++ or some other language, you didn’t just pick up C#. Writing “Hello Garth” to Console is not picking up a programming language. Make sure you remember C# is case sensitive, something you’re oblivious to.

#139 Dr. Ralph Cramdown, FRCS(C) on 02.06.13 at 12:30 pm

#133 Tony — Garth, banks don’t lend people 200,000 to invest in ETF, equities and preferred shares.

Maybe not people like you. Mine’s willing to lend me a lot more than that, at the click of a mouse, at 3%. Oh, and we repaid RBC’s $40,000 “MyProject MasterCard” loan the other week. They lent us the money for six months for a grand total of $3.50 in fees.

#140 RWZ on 02.06.13 at 12:33 pm

I don’t get it. “How are prices up $20,000?” Garth asks, and then he says: “it’s because we were indulging last year.”

If we were indulging last year, I don’t see how this explains why prices are even higher this year for the same time period.

#141 JonG on 02.06.13 at 12:42 pm

Garth – please dissuade me as the emotions are high. I want to build a cottage, even though I can see them dropping sharply in price. Even though it’s not waterfront. They used to be $75 with property, now the property is estimated at $100 – location is a “prestigious” part of Manitoba Park (titled, not leased land). It’ll cost a solid $200 out of pocked to build. I have $500, and the main house in the city is paid off but small. TFSA is stuffed and produces. I’m working on the RESP, trying to backfill without OC.

Problem is if I wait then the kids grow up and we miss the cottage experience. Kids are between 1 and 6; there are 4 of them.

You want to spend 300K on a cottage and have not funded your RESP? Which do you think will benefit your children the most? — Garth

#142 Astronaut down on 02.06.13 at 12:50 pm

This blog is full of puppeteers, posers, self-proclaimed prophets and pseudo experts. Last year it’s Armageddon, this year it’s lengthy correction. How can everyone be so surprised about bidding wars being back and RE still going strong in Toronto. I like the response G-Turn spewed to bidding wars being back.

“Emotions, dude. Fools apparently still have them. — Garth

I did not hear predictions about bidding wars for Jan/Feb this year, but I did hear plenty about the interest rates going up end of 2013. Now they are not until end of 2014, maybe 2015. G-Turn is playing it safe. Lengthy correction – who cares if it comes in 10 years. You’ll never see the money you spent on rent for that long, where by then your mortgage would be half gone. All you puppeteers, posers, self-proclaimed prophets and pseudo experts have no creds.

As opposed to a guy who calls himself Astronaut and has no facts? Most convincing. — Garth

#143 Carlos on 02.06.13 at 12:55 pm

Stop listening to Garth. He is giving you false hopes. RE isn’t going for a long decline period. You will be sorry when prices go back up to last spring’s level and more.

Mark my words.

Okay, marked. Feel better? — Garth

#144 squidly77 on 02.06.13 at 12:58 pm

Garth what impact will there be to Calgary RE if Suncor cancel’s their 1.5 billion oil sands Voyageur project? Thx!

The write-down was 1.5 billion $, the expected cost of Voyageur and French Total’s Fort Hills mine was to exceed 20 Billion, it was to be Alberta’s biggest mega-project ever. Virtually all Tar Pit projects have been shelved.

The Alberta energy boom has, without any doubt, any doubt at all gone bust. If you don’t believe me, just listen to the rhetoric coming from our provincial politicians. It’s all doom and gloom now.

It’s done. Most don’t see it yet. Yet!!

#145 joe on 02.06.13 at 1:06 pm

Garth you are a lyrical artist.

#146 Inglorious Investor on 02.06.13 at 1:17 pm

#115 Canadian Watchdog on 02.06.13 at 10:44 am

I don’t care what BC teachers make; I don’t pay for their salaries, benefits and pensions.

Here is the situation in Ontario:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/education/anatomy-of-an-ontario-teachers-paycheque/article6015968/

Highlights:

“Salary for a teacher with more than 10 years of service at the lowest and highest pay rates: $76,021, $94,707″

The extra courses and training they need to achieve the highest pay scale are not difficult to get. I’ve talked to teachers about this.

———-

“Teachers have an extended health-care plan that is 100-per-cent funded by the [tax payer] and dental plan funded 94 per cent by the [tax payer].”

See how many similar plans you can find in the private sector.

———-

“A teacher earning $90,000 a year with 32 years of service would have an annual pension of $57,600. The pension amounts are reduced once teachers are old enough to begin collecting CPP payments […]”

They contribute between 10.8 and 12.4 per cent of pay. These are DB plans and not subject to market volatility. They can earn more from a pension than most people do while working. http://www.workopolis.com/content/advice/article/1821-how-much-money-are-we-earning-the-average-canadian-wages-right-now

———-

The VP of finance at a major corporation once told me benefits packages add between 15% and 30% to a worker’s base pay. This is how a teacher’s compensation gets to $120,000 at the top end. Another source in the education system confirmed this number independently.

#147 Musty Basement Wannabe on 02.06.13 at 1:19 pm

Going to list my house soon in the mouldy sister city of Vancouver (Nanaimo) very soon. It should be an interesting process. My Real Estate Agent says there is “Pent up demand out there” and that “the doom and gloom of last fall is beyond us” . That sounds good to me (as a seller) I hope he’s right.

#148 EIT on 02.06.13 at 1:21 pm

He said the same last year, right? — Garth

Haven’t you said the same thing for years? ’cause of your resolve.

Yes, but I’m right. — Garth

(head slapping forehead) Dah!

#149 -=jwk=- on 02.06.13 at 1:22 pm

@ Tony #133. Could you point out some ‘modest’ homes for a family of five? They don’t exist. And in a declining market we would be trapped in our ‘starter home’ for a long, long time. We sold our condo and rented a house. I it was the only sane thing to do

#150 bill on 02.06.13 at 1:23 pm

Garth you are so funny sometimes it hurts man.
I refer to the following:
” a frothy time of urban excess exceeding even the aphrodisiac high of eating Swedish meatballs in the nude while listening to an 8-track of The Dancing Queen.”
wow how swede is that?
good thing I wasnt drinking my coffee at the ‘moment critique ‘

#151 Kevin in Winnipeg on 02.06.13 at 1:24 pm

Winnipeg MLS Headline “BEST JANUARY IN 16 YEARS”

“While only one month, this January result is encouraging and indicates strong market fundamentals are well in play as has been the case in recent years,” said Richard Dettman, president of WinnipegREALTORS®. “All markets are local to a large extent, so to ascribe a national market perspective to Winnipeg would be ill-advised at this point.”

“Nearly two of every three residential-detached properties sold for below list price in January and the same result applied for condominiums. Where the two property types differed was in the percentage of properties selling for above list price. 24% of residential-detached sold above list price while only 17% of condominiums ended up selling for more than list price.”

Someone does not sound very confident.

#152 TEMPLE on 02.06.13 at 1:25 pm

#115 Canadian Watchdog on 02.06.13 at 10:44 am
and
#136 Snowboid on 02.06.13 at 12:21 pm

Nicely done. The numbers say it better than I can.

TEMPLE

#153 jess on 02.06.13 at 1:26 pm

watchdog

In 1956 the average salary for engineers was $12,059 ($100,684 2012 dollars) Today the average salary is $63,941 or $7,658 in 1956 dollars.

demand drivers
fear of the commies ,abombs ,space race =integrated circuit self-aligned gates NASA
http://www.nasa.gov/50th/50th_magazine/10presidents.html

A direct result of the Sputnik crisis
http://www.policyalmanac.org/economic/archive/nasa_history.shtml

#154 Inglorious Investor on 02.06.13 at 1:29 pm

#136 Snolwboid on 02.06.13 at 12:21 pm

“Don’t let the likes of Inglorious Investor (and Hangfire, Truth Hammer, etc) get to you – they espouse an ideology based on the promotion of ignorance.”

That’s right… if you’re losing an argument, just attack the person. Ad hominem. Ad infinitum.

#155 squidly77 on 02.06.13 at 1:29 pm

The failure of Alberta’s Tar Pits was plotted in 2007 when the province along with the Oil cartel saw larger money in the transportation of Bitumen (Asphalt) rather than upgraded in Alberta synthetic crude.

Under the guise of 5 phantom proposed Edmonton area upgraders (never were going to built) they schemed for a pipeline that was to be called ‘Keystone XL’ that would transport the raw product to various U.S. upgraders, at the time the price was high was piped Asphalt.

Now 6 years in the future we can plainly see what a failure this plan has been, as more and more plants produce only bitumen there is a vast over supply of the black tar that will only worsen going forward. This month Imperials Kearl Lake comes on line and will produce an additional 110,000 BBL daily driving the transportation starved resource price even lower.

It’s the simple supply and demand thingy. Too much supply = lower prices.

If we had continued to build upgraders in Alberta from 2007 and on instead of piping Asphalt out, Alberta would be doing just fine now. I blogged about it often on my old site.

#156 DonDWest on 02.06.13 at 1:34 pm

Speaking of useless teachers and professors, St. Xavier is still on strike:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/story/2013/01/25/ns-st-fx-strike-position.html

Now, if I were the government of Nova Scotia, this is what I would kindly send these university profs:

Dear St. Xavier Professors,

You have failed to produce the tax base necessary in our young people in order for you to get a raise, let alone collect a pension. As such, you haven’t lived up to your end of the contract. In the spirit of accountability, not only will I not grant you a raise, but I’m removing your pensions, effective immediately.

Any violence that may come as a result of this announcement will be suppressed. You can either choose to accept what are still high salaries or work alongside your indebted students at Burger King.

#157 Real-e-horny on 02.06.13 at 1:41 pm

Actually we are there. — Garth

I do hope you are right this time, Sir!

I bet all those who listened to you in 09′ must be kicking themselves royally!

Even if houses come back to 09′ prices, you will be wrong as that was the time you called for a crash…ok steep correction.

I wonder if in 2 years we are going back to 09′ prices ??

I never forecast a crash. Van prices are already moving backwards. I would not be so impatient. — Garth

#158 EIT on 02.06.13 at 1:44 pm

That would be hand not head

#159 squidly77 on 02.06.13 at 1:47 pm

Albertan’s will never see another, new upgrader built in Alberta. Never. Instead they will seek upgrader capacity elsewhere. New Brunswick, Ontario or Beijing anywhere will do.

The NW upgrader @ Redwater, Alberta will in all likely hood be cancelled no matter what the province or the MSM state. I know that shovels are in the ground at Redwater, but remember this, Suncor spent 3.5 billion on Voyageur before the eventual yet to be announced cancellation.

None of my above posts give me any pleasure as I work in the energy industry myself. It’s just reality that’s all.

#160 Bargains everywhere on 02.06.13 at 1:58 pm

http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=12809203&PidKey=765639600

Oh, what a joke! This house in Leaside is listed at $749,000 when similar homes in the neighbourhood go for $1.3 million and up.

Gee, do you think they’ll have a bidding war? I’m sure the papers will cover this one and show it as proof that the spring market is ‘hot’.

The house is under market by about $100,000, which is its land value. It will only be bought to tear down or to be doubled in size. — Garth

#161 JR on 02.06.13 at 1:58 pm

Globalization is changing the world. Currency wars, and and a general race to the bottom explain what is happening to the world in the present. Are you proud of Canada? Borders are but a fiction nowadays. Our current economic system is no more valid than any that existed in the past. Youth will stop participation in a system that provides negative returns to their inputs. The roman empire collapsed when the farmers on the edge of the border who routinely got raided barbarians stopped picking themselves back up after and simply opened their gates to the invaders. They offered a better life than the heavy tax of the Romans.

#162 Snowboid on 02.06.13 at 2:00 pm

#144 Inglorious Investor on 02.06.13 at 1:29 pm…

Sorry if you took that as ‘ad hominem’, it wasn’t intended that way.

Let’s change that to say “there are right-wing ideologies that promote ignorance.” and you are more than happy to pass those ‘non-facts’ on to the bloggers.

BTW, losing an argument is only possible if there is one in the first place.

#163 Musty Basement Wannabe on 02.06.13 at 2:03 pm

” a frothy time of urban excess exceeding even the aphrodisiac high of eating Swedish meatballs in the nude while listening to an 8-track of The Dancing Queen.”
I WANT IN ON THAT SO BAD!!!! Could we perhaps recreate minus the 8 track? (maybe mp3?) :)

#164 Bigrider on 02.06.13 at 2:04 pm

U know Nonno, I feela lika I should av a knowna dat maybe a buyin some a real eshtata abacka 10 years ago would hav abeen agood idea. I feela a bita stupido for not a seein da interessarre rates were ona da waya down and da debito rates among de Torontonions( no Onions nonno Toronto-ions) for da house on the way up.

But if I buya now,Ima gonna feela lika da Baccala for sure.
Pesca fritto fora sure

#165 Victor on 02.06.13 at 2:04 pm

Hi Garth,
Thank you so much for doing it for people.
But, is there a way to force treb not to lie? Just take a look at the last year Jan report and you will see that treb uses different numbers for this year report than they posted last year.
01-2012: http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news2012/nr_market_watch_0112.htm
01-2013:
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/market_watch/2013/mw1301.pdf
A couple of checks.
– Total sales GTA. Last year report sys 4,567. In this year report they use 4,432 for Jan 2012. The drop should be 4,567 vs 4375 means -4.2% (4567-4375)/4567, not what they say -1.3%
- 416-detached sales. Last year number 559, this year 502, so the drop is not 7.6 but should be (559-502)/559 = 10.2%.
I believe there is more …

#166 squidly77 on 02.06.13 at 2:05 pm

Just get the Asphalt outta Alberta, by ship, by rail, by pipeline or by transport truck, just get it the hell out of Alberta!!

That’s not me speaking, it’s Alberta’s politico’s.

#167 Bigrider on 02.06.13 at 2:06 pm

Geez Garth some harmless humour posts and you delete them ?

Why?

Stop slandering public figures. — Garth

#168 Van guy on 02.06.13 at 2:06 pm

Put all your net worth in one thing? Good luck. — Garth

Not too many people are worried about this. A home is a home and most don’t see it as an investment. It is what it is.

What ‘many people’ do hardly makes it smart. Most are financial basket cases. — Garth

#169 Patiently Waiting on 02.06.13 at 2:07 pm

Fraser Valley Real Estate Board is reporting sales are up compared to last year, so I did some checking on the boards own data base. This is what I found:

Sales of Single Family Homes:
Jan.1 – Feb. 6th 2012= 714
Jan.1 – Feb. 6th 2013= 264 (A drop of 63%)

Sales of Attached Units:
Jan.1 – Feb. 6th 2012= 525
Jan.1 – Feb. 6th 2013= 209(A drop of 60%)

Total Single Family Homes + Attached:
Jan.1 – Feb. 6th 2012= 1239
Jan.1 – Feb. 6th 2013= 473 (A drop of 62%)
====================================

These sales declines are horrific! How in the world they can spin this into “sales are up” in simply fraudulent …, I pity the fools who are trusting in their diception …

pw

#170 squidly77 on 02.06.13 at 2:20 pm

Since the days of Peter Lougheed through Ralph Kleins reign, the deal was always this. We will permit you to build a mine but you must also build an upgrader. It was always balanced.

But since King Ralphs removal it has all changed, and it changed fast, upgraders originally scheduled to be built at Kearl Lake, Suncor, Husky Sunrise, Strathcona County and many more locations were quickly scrapped.

#171 Astronaut down on 02.06.13 at 2:24 pm

#141 @ G-Turn saying “As opposed to a guy who calls himself Astronaut and has no facts? Most convincing. — Garth”

I was flying high above the stratosphere when I found this blog, thinking it’s a saviour, been coming HERE to find the facts. Now I see this virtual fantasy world is misaligned with the sur-real estate world in TO. Loosing hope – down. Disappointed. Know what I mean?

Over & Out

#172 Inglorious Investor on 02.06.13 at 2:27 pm

#162 Snowboid on 02.06.13 at 2:00 pm

Ideology has nothing to do with it. I suspect you know better, but you choose to resort to obfuscation and slander.

I’ve passed on plenty of facts. If you choose to ignore the facts, that’s up to you. There’s no evidence that fairies exist, but children still believe.

#173 joe on 02.06.13 at 2:29 pm

Garth you are a lyrical artist. And #140 RWZ if you dont understand the point Garth is trying to make ( market momentum ) then you deserve to loose a load of the banks cash which you will be liable for.

#174 fancy_pants on 02.06.13 at 2:37 pm

gotta love internet blogging … more prophets here than the old testament.

Remember to take it all with a grain of salt and call the bearded oracle in the morning if your stomach is upset.

#175 Jimmy on 02.06.13 at 2:37 pm

Time to admit that you’ve been dead wrong about Canadian real estate over the past several years Garth. I bet you kicked the dog when you heard that the month-over-month price in the GTA went up. You continue to mislead the basement-dwelling renters who flock to your blog as if you are their messiah. According to you we should have been in full correction mode by now, but you keep finding excuses as to why it hasn’t happened yet. Make sure you don’t approve this comment — it would be a shame to have some dissenting criticism in you ridiculously one-sided blog.

Actually the average house price in the GTA last month was less than the 2012 average. You were saying what? — Garth

#176 Asse on 02.06.13 at 2:37 pm

An education in and of itself really doesn’t mean much. It’s possible for someone whose education consists of a BZ license to attain an understanding. Occasionally that understanding is fed by non traditional means. Yes, I’ve read that Rolling Stones article. What was the result? How does it affect you’re life. Buy some oil stocks and move on.
What a post secondary education does signify is someone’s ability to actively pursue a goal, when other objectives seem more pressing. It also, depending on the school, open you up to ideas, ideology and self learning. More importantly, you will meet people who share your goals and help you achieve them. A social network that will also help in career endeavors. No pointy hat needed.
If you don’t have a formal education it’s okay. Really, it is. You don’t have anything to prove. We’re all friends here on a real estate armagedon blog.

#177 Smoking Man on 02.06.13 at 2:47 pm

Astronught down..

You are correct, but those other laugage where learned the same way. Never took a computer course in my life…

#178 bill on 02.06.13 at 2:51 pm

#173 Inglorious Investor on 02.06.13 at 2:27 pm
said:
”I’ve passed on plenty of facts”
you passed on your personal outlook on life.
facts ? give me a break .talk about fairy dust.
I would refer you to #174 fancy_pants on 02.06.13 at 2:37 pm …

#179 Smoking Man on 02.06.13 at 2:53 pm

#175 Asse on 02.06.13 at 2:37 

It does matter, to waste a small treasure on higher education when all info is free, not to mention that the machine is off shoring jobs everyday..

If the new world order has its way, only people that trade and broker deals will live in luxury, the rest, shine my shoes dog…

#180 Dr. Ralph Cramdown, FRCS(C) on 02.06.13 at 2:58 pm

#153 Inglorious Investor

Stop. You’re embarrassing yourself.
- you live in a relative meritocracy where people can choose any vocation subject to their skills
- Your children attend public school
- You want to see public schoolteachers’ compensation cut because you believe them to be overpaid relative to the private sector
- You claim to be widely read in classical economics

There’s no school of economics I’m aware of that doesn’t say that in our society, cutting teachers’ pay (all other things being equal) would lead to lower quality teachers as candidates at the margin decide to use their skills elsewhere.

So just feed your kids a little tetraethyl lead with their breakfast every day, enrol them in the school football program, and spare us your histrionics.

#181 daystar on 02.06.13 at 3:16 pm

For glorious investor:

http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/cfib-documents/rr3077.pdf

The link above is the only bit of so called facts you have so far produced with a debate you’ve inititated that really doesn’t relate to yesterday or today’s topic. Within your link are dated 2005 government stats combined with charts that indicate both the private and public sector wages that equate to roughly the same thing. Benefits favor government workers as a result of government surviving where the private sector fails. For example, where’s Nortel? The reason why links like this exist is to talk down public wages and benefits so that the private sector can pay less and thus, its inglorious investors/shareholders can earn more. In short, its for self interests at the sacrifice of the truth with its wonderful bias “CFIB analysis”.

I can go on (as I have done so in the past) with teacher salary/education results about where Canada stacks up in the world with PISA scores as well as provincially or where teachers as you use for an example, teacher salaries are in line with average incomes for the areas they teach if you would care to look, or what the equivalents of 4 and 5 years of academics produce in areas outside of teaching to compare if you wish to continue to debate whether teachers are over/underpaid, but you seem to not want to know about that. Only Ontario is relevant to you in your little bubble of a world where I, me and mine rule. Sad, but true and hence, in a world with blinders, that world is all you will know so I suggest you please… take these blinders off.

I can go on about junior corps not being unionized for the most part so director corporate salaries don’t even relate to this debate. What relates is where corporate salaries (and stock options and bonus’s) are in relation to unionized or public corporation/management equivalents if you truly wish to look into something meaningful but I’m largely guessing you don’t because it isn’t in the inglorious shareholders “best interest” to do so.

Hence, there are basically three types of people in the larger world many of the rest of us live in. There are those who look out for others including themselves, there are those who look out for others except themselves and there those who look out only for themselves. Who do you look out for? Your kids? Are you sure its them you truly look out for, that its not “still all about you?” Good for you, if your love doesn’t come with “conditions” but I have to wonder any time I encounter someone who doesn’t care about the big picture. A part of that love is reflected by knowing how your kids school as an example, stacks up with the rest of the schools in your province, nation and world. This doesn’t stop, by the way, with the individual systems in the province of Ontario or the school your kids go to or for that matter your individual teacher(s) your kids end up with ok? Nor does it stop with the earnings potential of what teachers could make with 4 and 5 year degrees if they had chose another career. Its called earnings potential that a teacher is constrained with the moment that career choice is made and this in itself seems quite lost on you, the only reason I can think of, because you either think anyone under the sun can teach a class full of kids or you don’t want to see the big picture as it would take a dent in some of that pride you fuel yourself on.

In short, I’ve got a simple, humble suggestion for you. Do the research, be thorough, park the pride and bias for the sake of the full truth and read before you continue to write stuff that wastes everyone’s time.

#182 The Prophet Elijah on 02.06.13 at 3:19 pm

#144 squidly77 on 02.06.13 at 12:58 pm Garth what impact will there be to Calgary RE if Suncor cancel’s their 1.5 billion oil sands Voyageur project? Thx!

The write-down was 1.5 billion $, the expected cost of Voyageur and French Total’s Fort Hills mine was to exceed 20 Billion, it was to be Alberta’s biggest mega-project ever. Virtually all Tar Pit projects have been shelved.

The Alberta energy boom has, without any doubt, any doubt at all gone bust. If you don’t believe me, just listen to the rhetoric coming from our provincial politicians. It’s all doom and gloom now.

It’s done. Most don’t see it yet. Yet!!
———————————————————
I agree and already know a person who lost their job in the patch. Not that one person is any indicator of anything but it amazes me how few are catching on. This really is only the beginning.

#183 Snowboid on 02.06.13 at 3:36 pm

#173 Inglorious Investor on 02.06.13 at 2:27 pm…

Hidden meanings? Slander? Huh?

Facts?

Based on what you have “passed on”, I would surmise you still believe in fairies.

#184 EIT on 02.06.13 at 3:41 pm

Stop slandering public figures. — Garth

Unless the person’s a nutbar, then its ok.

Of course. — Garth

#185 Carlos on 02.06.13 at 3:46 pm

People missed the boat. 2008-2009 was the year to buy. Never coming back down to that level.

#186 JonG on 02.06.13 at 3:51 pm

RESP is well funded, just not maxed out (due to missing some previous years).

#187 Inglorious Investor on 02.06.13 at 3:51 pm

#179 bill on 02.06.13 at 2:51 pm

If you can read:

http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/cfib-documents/rr3077.pdf

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/education/anatomy-of-an-ontario-teachers-paycheque/article6015968/

http://www.workopolis.com/content/advice/article/1821-how-much-money-are-we-earning-the-average-canadian-wages-right-now

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/10/02/why-excessive-teachers-wages-are-a-boondoggle-we-cant-afford/

http://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/reports/docs/Education%20Funding%20Formula%20Review_0.pdf

Of course none of this matters to you. All that matters is that public sector workers should be able to gorge at the public trough, throw up, and gorge again.

——–

#181 Dr. Ralph Cramdown, FRCS(C) on 02.06.13 at 2:58 pm

“There’s no school of economics I’m aware of that doesn’t say that in our society, cutting teachers’ pay (all other things being equal) would lead to lower quality teachers as candidates at the margin decide to use their skills elsewhere.”

We can’t go much lower as it is.

And if you really are a doctor, perhaps you should change your name to Dr. Mengele. Drink the tetraethyl lead yourself you sick bastard.

#188 Astronaut down on 02.06.13 at 3:52 pm

Smoking Man

I know just what you mean. You can learn anything online, whether true or not, don’t have to look far. Compile and run this:

while(G-Turn.blogging)
{
if (Blog.content == true)
praise.G-Turn;
else if (Blog.content != true)
praise.G-Turn;
}

~~o===

Over & Out

#189 The Prophet Elijah on 02.06.13 at 3:53 pm

Garth, squidly and the prophet are the only ones that see what is staring Alberta straight in the face.

#190 Dupcheck on 02.06.13 at 4:05 pm

#181 Dr. Ralph Cramdown, FRCS

You should be nicer…otherwise you are no different yourself !!!!

#191 Frank le skank on 02.06.13 at 4:09 pm

When did this become a shit on teachers blog? Seriously, leave the personal issues that you have with your kids teachers off the blog. The same people advocating a pay and benefit reduction are the same people complaining of the quality of our schooling system. You can’t cheap out on salaries and benefits and get better quality learning. I mean I’m sure its possible in theory but in this world it won’t happen. Maybe we should import some immigrants and pay them minimum wage with no benefits to teach our kids. The only jobs that will be left in this country will be manual labour after all the corps are done outsourcing so why do we even need to bother educating our children?

Problem solved… case closed!

#192 Alain Savard on 02.06.13 at 4:29 pm

#124 DM in C

Thank you for your reply to my #98. I wish more people cared about this subject.

Garth only briefly touches on this once every 20 or 25 posts. It is something I believe he should mention in almost all of them.

This would lead to questions and he could take it further every time. Making sure all MLS deals always involve 2 different firms is only the first step.

In a perfect world the firm representing the buyer would not be selling houses on the side.

A company truly dedicated to protecting buyers should do it exclusively and never, ever, ever, take listings or represent sellers. These firms exist in the US check http://www.NAEBA.org.

Garth should be promoting this group. We need people like that here too. Their services are free on the purchase of almost all MLS listings and their job is to get the buyer the best home at the best price.

Why is Canada still without?

#193 Dr. Hoof Hearted on 02.06.13 at 4:32 pm

I think I found out what happened to Beach Girl:

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50140432n

#194 Asse on 02.06.13 at 4:34 pm

Smoking Man, you silly, indulgent narcissistic waste of time. There I feel better. I usually skip your posts but the only people that don’t believe in education are those that have none. By the way, unless you bought a degree from some dung infested land you and you’re skills are transferable.

#195 Old Man on 02.06.13 at 4:44 pm

I see we have a little debate, so will throw in my penny, as it no longer exists anymore. The world has changed, and with education or higher learning, if you will, a dynamic change has taken place, as what was cannot be anymore. University for some professions in the public sector is a must, but for others to earn a living in the real world takes on a new dimension.

Any young person graduating from highschool needs to make a decision about a degree, and they can either go for the gold, or take a look such as a Technical College to learn a skill in demand to earn a good living. The future is all about demand and supply, and a B.A. or an M.A. degree will no longer cut the mustard anymore.

#196 Tony on 02.06.13 at 4:55 pm

#149

Hmm perhaps modest who read ‘don’t freaking over extend yourself with a monster mortage’.

My problem is that house sizes are getting bigger, but families are smaller. What is a starter house? Is it a house that has 2 bedrooms, and you now have 3 kids, or is it the house that you bought, and now want to compete with your friends and get an extra garage and a pool table room

My point is, that if you have the cash, and can put down a nice downpayment of 25% or more on a 20 year mortgage, and see yourself living there for 10 years (this is hard to predict), then buying isn’t the end of the world, and even in this market probably isn’t the worst decision you’ll ever make.

#197 Tony on 02.06.13 at 5:00 pm

#139 You are living in a dream world.

You got the loan against your house, or another asset of some sort.

100% of people with no assets who walk into a bank and ask for more than 20,000 will get laughed at, unless its a mortgage for a house

Someone with 10,000 in the bank, a BA degree, and nothing else can’t walk into a bank and ask for 200,000 so they can invest it in equities and bonds.

Get a grib on reality

#198 Rand man on 02.06.13 at 5:00 pm

“There’s no school of economics I’m aware of that doesn’t say that in our society, cutting teachers’ pay (all other things being equal) would lead to lower quality teachers as candidates at the margin decide to use their skills elsewhere.”

Foolish Ralph..you and the others are missing the basis of his argument here…
You are proof positive that the educators have failed us…

#199 Inglorious Investor on 02.06.13 at 5:09 pm

#192 Frank le skank on 02.06.13 at 4:09 pm

(Sighhhh…..)

#200 bill on 02.06.13 at 5:10 pm

#187 Rand man on 02.06.13 at 5:00 pm
no he nailed you and your friends to the wall.
you have no argument what ever. deluded springs to mind.
say ‘rand man’ are you from south africa originally?

#201 Old Man on 02.06.13 at 5:10 pm

#178 Smoking Man – I took one computer course in my life at UofT in 1972 called Fortran IV, as was writing software programs on a punch card machine to be fed into the main computer. This is one part of my life as want to forget, as had no idea about this all, but had a friend from my old Frat House in Montreal who was living in my Grad digs, getting his Masters Degree in all this stuff, so had him write these complex programs for me on my behalf to feed into the machine :).

#202 Andrew on 02.06.13 at 5:10 pm

Tony #101

“I’ve tried to straighten them out on that blog.”

Saw your comments on the Edmonton Real Estate Blog, it’s always fun to watch their followers attack contrarians. Prepare to be locked out shortly, the blog hosts do not tolerate opposing views on their blog and do not to mention Garth, their disdain for him is truly breathtaking…

#203 cramar on 02.06.13 at 5:12 pm

#102 -=jwk=- on 02.06.13 at 9:16 am
#22anonymous

We are paying 18000yr rent on a house that costs 659000 to buy. Where do you live where houses only cost 300,000? The 1980′s?

—–

In 2013, one could always move to a place where houses cost $300k or less:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12503668&PidKey=-855330312

Or new…

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12711574&PidKey=-1356060811

#204 jess on 02.06.13 at 5:13 pm

perhaps the swede wishes to compare good bank/ bad bank of 1992 model…

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/03/us-spain-badbank-idUSBRE8420RW20120503

http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0206/366534-updates-promissory-note-anglo/

#205 Ray on 02.06.13 at 5:13 pm

#166 Victor on 02.06.13 at 2:04 pm
As Canadian Watchdog points out many times, the initial sales figure will be adjusted down every month for about 6 months by TREB to reflect the transactions that are not closed. And TREB always use current un-adjusted number to compare with last year’s adjusted number which is lower than the initial figure.

#206 Musty Basement Wannabe on 02.06.13 at 5:30 pm

To #176 Jimmy on 02.06.13 at 2:37 pm

Jimmy welcome to the basement level. I think there are a few from other levels on this blog too but that is neither here nor there.

I sense some frustration in your note. Are you a house owner in the GTA perhaps?

You sound exactly like my brother in Vancouver. Last year all he could say is how long Garth has been wrong for. Just recently he has realized the appraised value of his house in Vancouver is down in the past year about 150k (from $750k where it was at). About a month ago he stopped talking like you are talking at the moment and has decided to list his house for sale.

Unfortunately I think the boat is a bit too far from the dock for him to jump into and he has missed the boat.

#207 TS on 02.06.13 at 5:37 pm

Worried about others being misled by a report?

#208 Pr on 02.06.13 at 5:42 pm

CMHC from the beginning until 2006 is 100 BILLIONS.

Now at the end of 2012 on a Friday night, before Christmas Poofff! 50 BILLIONS! Just like that!

M Jim Flaherty, is in bed, with a couple of bankers!

People better be ready to wright some fat cheques to your next taxe increase, when those billions of unpaid loan come back. It may take some times, but its coming. It a disgrace, nobody do nothing, except a few.

#209 Old Man on 02.06.13 at 5:43 pm

#195 Asse – I beg to differ a bit as the Smoking Man is making a good point about what an education can do for a person moving forward in life. One can make big money in sales; the higher professions; those that start a business with a vision; in the entertainment arena as well.

The greatest fortunes in Canada were made at no cost, and can name a dozen, whereby, a new product came out, as it was simply to ask for exclusive distribution rights in Canada, as that is where the big money can be made. I have seen this all done.

#210 Rand man on 02.06.13 at 5:58 pm

Bill=still not getting it=failed education system

Does that clarify things for you?

Now … back to your PVR recordings of Honey Boo Boo

#211 Inglorious Investor on 02.06.13 at 6:03 pm

#182 daystar on 02.06.13 at 3:16 pm

OK, at least someone here can offer something of a reasonable rebuttal.

I offer the links I presented in #188, most of which were displayed in previous comments.

“[…] the private and public sector wages that equate to roughly the same thing. Benefits favor government workers as a result of government surviving where the private sector fails. For example, where’s Nortel?”

Whether it’s through salaries or benefits or pensions, it’s still a cost. Employers understand this, even if many employees don’t. To ignore the benefits and pensions is being selective and biased.

——–

“Benefits favor government workers as a result of government surviving where the private sector fails. For example, where’s Nortel?”

In business, failures are more common than successes. That’s called ‘risk’. It’s something the public sector does not appreciate because they don’t have such risks. And risk is something that people should be compensated for. At least that’s what the free markets believe.

———

“The reason why links like this exist is to talk down public wages and benefits so that the private sector can pay less […]”

I don’t deny a report can be biased. But that cuts both ways. Would you like me to parse CUPE’s rejoinder to the CFIB report?

———-

“[…] teacher salaries are in line with average incomes for the areas they teach[…]”

Again, you’re ignoring the bigger compensation picture. But the larger issue, is the private sector’s ability to fund that compensation. Have you looked at Ontario’s finances lately?

———-

“Only Ontario is relevant to you […]”

Yes, because this where I pay my education taxes. Other jurisdictions can do what they please. It’s for me to say because I don’t pay taxes there.

————–

“Hence, there are basically three types of people in the larger world…”

It may be hard for you to believe this, but I am trying to look out for the larger interest. You assume I’m some ruthless boulevardier who wants lower public sector pay to increase my profits. Wrong.

————–

“Its called earnings potential that a teacher is constrained with the moment that career choice is made and this in itself seems quite lost on you, […]”

Please. Don’t insult my intelligence.

————-

“Do the research, be thorough, […]”

I am doing the research if you would look. Where’s your research?

———-

“[…] read before you continue to write stuff that wastes everyone’s time.”

I don’t ask you to read my comments. But if you want to criticize them, do so on the facts, not with some armchair, pseudo-psychological babble.

#212 Dr. Ralph Cramdown, FRCS(C) on 02.06.13 at 6:07 pm

#193 Alain Savard — Making sure all MLS deals always involve 2 different firms is only the first step. [...] Why is Canada still without?

Buyer-only brokers don’t solve the main problems of agency, which are:
- When you find a property you like, the more you pay for it, the more your agent gets paid.
- Your agent gets paid the same amount whether you buy the first house you look at or the 30th, so it’s in his interest to get you to buy early.

Buyers can believe that they’re getting good value for the 2.5% or so that their agent is earning. Or they can believe that, should they buy without representation, the seller and his agent would split any savings between them leaving no savings for the buyer. But any buyer who actually believes that he can bring another hungry mouth to the closing table for “free” probably also believes that the agent’s S550 is fuelled by unicorn farts.

#213 hangfire on 02.06.13 at 6:12 pm

DELETED

#214 Tony on 02.06.13 at 6:29 pm

Re: #203 Andrew on 02.06.13 at 5:10 pm

Thanks for the heads up, i could also post an apartment someone posted on this blog that was once listed at $348 thousand in Edmonton. Looks like the guy trying to sell it can’t even get 150 grand now. That’s the real world on mls.

http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?&PropertyId=12105232&PidKey=-480131121&Mode=0

The only thing that won’t fall in price is existing housing because the gap between new and existing is so wide. The vacancy rate is actually still falling and all the one bedroom condos and apartments that were selling at 1980 prices of 50 grand or less have been snatched up. What the people of Edmonton don’t realize is once a new house sells it becomes a resale or existing stock. I know the people who live there are 100 percent clueless as it look them this long to buy up all the one bedroom stock. At some point in time they’ll figure it out some day.

#215 Dr. WANK on 02.06.13 at 6:31 pm

Short Vowels >>Fjordst!
Dr. WAYNE >>you still remain the ‘Første’ infantile….

At least Short Vowels made me smile at least a bit, unlike your tiresome daily rant….

#216 Andrew on 02.06.13 at 6:56 pm

http://www.castanet.net/news/South-Okanagan/87012/Roof-comes-off-housing-market

“The number of home sales in the South Okanagan have decreased 38 per cent from this time last year…”

“Total sales volume for the board decreased to $14,663,499 in January 2013. That’s less than half of last years total of $30,812,310 for the month of January.”

Okanagan sales YoY are down 38 percent in number and down 52% in value. Yikes!

#217 Innumeracy chick...No more(AKA AMAZON) on 02.06.13 at 7:09 pm

#91 And you knew I was going to respond. Are you going to give me a glimpse of your crystal ball so I can be rich like you! Garth is rolling his eyes.

#218 Just thinking on 02.06.13 at 7:12 pm

#170 can you do the same thing for the TREB?

#219 Just thinking on 02.06.13 at 7:14 pm

# 166 VictorHi Garth,
Thank you so much for doing it for people.
But, is there a way to force treb not to lie? Just take a look at the last year Jan report and you will see that treb uses different numbers for this year report than they posted last year.
01-2012: http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news2012/nr_market_watch_0112.htm
01-2013:
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/market_watch/2013/mw1301.pdf
A couple of checks.
– Total sales GTA. Last year report sys 4,567. In this year report they use 4,432 for Jan 2012. The drop should be 4,567 vs 4375 means -4.2% (4567-4375)/4567, not what they say -1.3%
- 416-detached sales. Last year number 559, this year 502, so the drop is not 7.6 but should be (559-502)/559 = 10.2%.
I believe there is more …
_______________________
If you and #170 band together you can probably figure out the truth.
I have realestate agents email me listings that are down $500000 in the GTA. Prices are still not low enough.. but I just don’t believe the TREB numbers.

#220 Just thinking on 02.06.13 at 7:19 pm

#161 even at $849000 for lot value of 25×100 seems absolutely crazy to me. But I guess some areas are special.

#221 jess on 02.06.13 at 7:25 pm

here’s some education

The Mayfair Set is a series of programmes produced by Adam Curtis for the BBC, first broadcast in the summer of 1999.

The programme looked at how buccaneer capitalists of hot money were allowed to shape the climate of the Thatcher years, focusing on the rise of Colonel David Stirling, Jim Slater, James Goldsmith, and Tiny Rowland, all members of The Clermont club in the 1960s. It received the BAFTA Award for Best Factual Series or Strand in 2000.

The Mayfair Set – Episode 1: Who Pays Wins (Part 1/6) [Adam Curtis Documentary]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5U-sNn28dJk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIrHuO9Tgnc&list=PL617BE1DB723DB1D6
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Slater_(accountant)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mayfair_Set
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRGGfhFwBNs&list=PL617BE1DB723DB1D6
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Stirling

#222 Blacksheep on 02.06.13 at 7:28 pm

I say let the ‘system’ consume the Odin less wasteland, that is the GTA. A sacrifice for the gods. Just send 13 hand maidens to the left coast and we’ll call it even. Here in Raincouver, it seems Loki has run short of fools, willing to buy overpriced homes.

Time to get the Led out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17CsLvJS4cc

take care
Blacksheep

#223 Old Man on 02.06.13 at 7:36 pm

I went today to Jiffy Lube for my Drive Clean testing as needed my ticket to drive my old car, and passed with flying colours, as will buy a two year ticket. Now saw something that I have never seen in a decade, as they had 5 employees on staff, and their lot was empty, and no customers to be seen for oil changes or anything, so what is going on?

#224 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.06.13 at 7:39 pm

#88 Humpty Dumpty — Great link. The blurb in the middle shows that the west is on the statism / socialism side, moving toward fascism, etc. Unfortunately, we’re caught up in this dunghill of a political system, and there isn’t much anyone can do about it.

#96 tkid — Go ahead, it’s free domain!

#123 Inglorious Investor and #180 Smoking Man — “That said, once in a while you do come across a more enlightened teacher who does attempt to encourage these things.” — A good film to see is Dead Poet’s Society, c.1988 with Robin Williams. Shows how children can learn to use their creative abilities much more than just being obedient. Better than A Beautiful Mind.

#159 squidly77 — “Albertan’s will never see another, new upgrader built in Alberta. Never. Instead they will seek upgrader capacity elsewhere. New Brunswick, Ontario or Beijing anywhere will do.” — Looks as if NB and China will be more than happy to participate, don’t know about Ont.

#162 JR — “Borders are but a fiction nowadays.’ — Exc. post!

#196 Old Man — “Any young person graduating from highschool needs to make a decision about a degree, and they can either go for the gold, or take a look such as a Technical College to learn a skill in demand to earn a good living.” — Right on! More than anything else, learning street smarts (as per Smoking Man), and taking note of posters here (Squiddly, Elijah with their forecast on Alberta) goes a long way for education, and it’s free to boot!

#225 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 02.06.13 at 7:42 pm

#202 Old Man on 02.06.13 at 5:10 pm

#178 Smoking Man – I took one computer course in my life at UofT in 1972 called Fortran IV,
====================================

OK so that means you were born in 1910…

#226 Dr. WAYNE on 02.06.13 at 7:50 pm

#216 Dr. WANK on 02.06.13 at 6:31 pm

Short Vowels >>Fjordst!
Dr. WAYNE >>you still remain the ‘Første’ infantile….

At least Short Vowels made me smile at least a bit, unlike your tiresome daily rant….

======================

And who has a gun to your cranium, as small as it is, that ‘forces’ you to read my ‘rant’ … huh???

#227 Asse on 02.06.13 at 7:53 pm

Inglorious, part of discussing an issue is understanding someone’s position based on their bias. Would your arguments, based on Google facts, be any less pronounced if they knew you were a public sector employee earning as much as a teacher without the education? The anonymous Internet is a leveling factor, kind of like Clark Kents glasses, where anyone can be anything. You’ve done well for yourself, online.

#228 robert james on 02.06.13 at 7:58 pm

So ,, just got a call from the credit union that I deal with..I have an RRSP of 9,541.28 and my wife has an RRSP of 17,889.89 that comes due on Feb.16.. I had planned on moving it to my investment guy .. The nice credit union lady tries to convince me to leave it in the CU but I had already made up my mind to invest it with the rest of my RRSPs.. Of course I told her this and she says,,are you aware that it will cost 35 dollars each to transfer the RRSPs to your investment guy ?? I asked why and she said it was for the paper work,so I ask was their a 35 dollar charge for writing up the RRSP a year ago for the paper work and she says No..She says that all institutions charge this 35 dollar fee..( I live in BC) So ,I say,,that is one of the reasons I am moving money out of the CU because I am really sick and tired of all these little mickey mouse charges they have..ie.. having to pay for a monthly statement to be mailed out. You can get it online free,,but,,what do people do that are not online ?? I do not need banks or CU because I do not have a mortgage and am debt free so FFFF the credit unions and the FFFFing banks…

#229 TurnerNation on 02.06.13 at 7:58 pm

Public union at work.

Toronto’s transit boondoggle. Did I mention a pork barrel?

http://www.blogto.com/city/2013/02/is_the_ttc_still_the_most_expensive_transit_system_in_north_america/

#230 daystar on 02.06.13 at 8:17 pm

It may be hard for you to believe this, but I am trying to look out for the larger interest. You assume I’m some ruthless boulevardier who wants lower public sector pay to increase my profits. Wrong. – I.I.

Yes, it is hard for me to believe especially when you wear pride on your sleeve the way you do.

Please. Don’t insult my intelligence. – I.I.

Then make sense. Look at what other careers generate with 4 and 5 years of academics including how they scale up and then get back to us with how over paid teachers are (don’t forget trades) and lets not live in the land of pretend either as to the gauntlet students run before they get degrees. Roughly 40% of all students drop out of college in their first 2 years overall and another 30% drop out in university from there so I’m told (it varies with degree puruits but its hard to pinpoint exact numbers with teaching because a good percentage of students switch majors before dropping out) and the numbers sitting with degree’s its hard to say but its likely 1 in 5 or higher with new graduates wtih teaching degrees specifically in the provinces of Ontario and Alberta. Why? Supply/demand which shouldn’t be too hard a thing for you too swallow if it still suits you. Otherwise, you make teaching sound as though its as easy as shovelling snow off a sidewalk. If only it were true.

“I am doing the research if you would look. Where’s your research?” – I.I.

Based on your many comments these last 2 days I don’t see your research at all. One link yesterday, big whoop and it was bias. Your defence? “oh, its all bias”. Uhuh… and btw, my research is in the archives. Any regular knows I’ve been there with teachers salaries and systems of education less than a year ago (last summer I think it was as well as years past) in spades provincially, nationally and internationally with the focus in Ontario and I have no kids in school but I did it because Ontario has budget issues and its the largest province in Canada by population. If I was you, (but I’m not you, but if I was) I would search those archives before running the risk of being the greatest fool.

I don’t ask you to read my comments. – I.I.

Its a public forum, snob. You opinion isn’t “exclusive” here.

But if you want to criticize them, do so on the facts, not with some armchair, pseudo-psychological babble. – I.I.

If only you could listen to yourself right now. By all means, its never too late to repent and walk humbly as pride especially in your case, comes before the fall.

#231 bill on 02.06.13 at 8:28 pm

#211 Rand man on 02.06.13 at 5:58 pm
since you seem to know so much about a honey boo boo tell me what it is ok?
[just so you know I dont have a tv.]
try this one for size its not very hard to answer is it ?
where are you from originally rand man?
south africa?

#232 ballingsford on 02.06.13 at 8:46 pm

Thanks for another great blog Garth and I just finished reading all the blog doggies postings. My evening is almost complete.

To finish it off, I’m gonna take a shower and then watch Mr. D and then Ron James to further my edu-bacation!

I’m going to be a genius sumday!!!

#233 Toronto_CA on 02.06.13 at 8:55 pm

#231 TurnerNation on 02.06.13 at 7:58 pm

So TTC is the most expensive or the user transit system in North America. This makes sense since its likely the least subsidized by taxpayers; but still sucks. At least Toronto also has the most expensive cabs and the most expensive auto insurance in North America so it evens out. Maybe we’ll get the most expensive housing crown from Vancouver before the year is out?

#234 Brew on 02.06.13 at 8:56 pm

@#146 Inglorius Investor
“See how many similar plans you can find in the private sector.”

Yes, my wife has that working for a construction company.

“These are DB plans and not subject to market volatility.”

Not true. If the plan is running actuarial deficits, more will come from your paycheck to fund it. Retirees may be subject to cutbacks if it is required. At least in OMERS

#235 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.06.13 at 9:02 pm

-
Thought For The Day! (wrh.com) — “An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war.” — Montesquieu
*
UK Huge tax increases. Is that why Carney went? Beggar Thy Neighbor currency devaluations in the 1930s;RBS and Libor Fined with no criminal charges, and Blankfein The system is screwing ordinary folks while rewarding the criminals; Meat and Dairy Prices up; Bernanke hacked during the SBowl by Anonymous; Flashback Magna Carta compared with the crooks of today; German’s Gold Where is it and who has it? The Dow and stuff.
*
Africa Full scale invasion, and Global Cyber War; Unprecedented Demand Guns sold every 1.5 seconds across America; Shingles Why are younger people getting them? Big Food “As you read this article, Nestle is reading it too.”; Windsor, Ont. bans fluoride — Go Windsor! China The west is getting its knickers in a twist; NObombaCare for seven mln.; India PM’s daughter blows whistle on 54 nations that helped the US with its prisons; Pakistan and ten feet of snow.

#236 Old Man on 02.06.13 at 9:08 pm

#230 robert james – never trust a Credit Union as the best mortgage deals in the past were made with one, as the Board of Directors cannot be trusted. I was the only person in Ontario who could mortgage a cave as a tourist attraction, as was connected. Now should I disclose who it was? Well what the hell as it was Duca, and did many deals with them, and they cannot come back and challenge me about this all, as there were many more.

#237 Alain Savard on 02.06.13 at 9:09 pm

#214 Dr. Ralph Cramdown

Thank you for commenting on my #194.

First, telling buyers not to rush into anything and saving them an extra $4000 off the purchase price only cost his agent $100. The best money any buyer agent that cares could ever invest in his business.

Second, the commission paid by the seller remains the same whether 2 companies or involved on the deal or one. So why not hire a second firm and give them the mandate to protect you?

It is to spread this message that Garth should talk about this more often. There are people that mean well in all professions, real estate included. Buyer only brokerages are a good thing and every Canadian city should have a dozen or so.

#238 EIT on 02.06.13 at 9:34 pm

Stop slandering public figures. — Garth

Unless the person’s a nutbar, then its ok.

Of course. — Garth

Take notes kids, it’s really hard to pin down these types of nuances.

#239 45north on 02.06.13 at 9:35 pm

Patiently Waiting: Fraser Valley Real Estate:
Sales of Single Family Homes:
Jan.1 – Feb. 6th 2012= 714
Jan.1 – Feb. 6th 2013= 264 (A drop of 63%)

that got my attention

#240 richmond bc on 02.06.13 at 9:46 pm

#182 daystar on 02.06.13 at 3:16 pm
I used to have respect for your comments until now. I suspect you are a teacher, and not a good one. You are usually quite eloquent. Please do not continue to babble on about this subject on teachers. I support the good hard working teachers (not many of them around thanks to the unions), and absolutely disgusted by the soul sucking ones that abuse the system (thanks to the unions). Overall I think that the whole system needs to be seriously looked at and revamped.

#241 Canadian Watchdog on 02.06.13 at 9:47 pm

#225 Old Man

Toronto retail sales in automotive parts, accessories and tire stores was down 22% y/y in Oct ’12. So what do the big Magnas and auto manufactures do? Lobby government for a new drive clean program to fail more cars so i) used vehicles get fixed or ii) people buy a new car.

#242 Innumeracy chick...No more(AKA AMAZON) on 02.06.13 at 9:52 pm

Buy Curious…..For You:

http://www.top100sradio.com/song/Stayin‘%20Alive/34440?artist_id=1003093&album_id=1103727

#243 Inglorious Investor on 02.06.13 at 9:52 pm

#236 Brew on 02.06.13 at 8:56 pm

Yeah, I didn’t say they don’t exist, but they are getting more and more rare as companies are trending toward DC plans for new hires.

It’s bit unusual for the employee to make up a pension shortfall out of their pay. Usually it’s the company that has to fund the shortfall.

#244 Inglorious Investor on 02.06.13 at 9:55 pm

#232 daystar on 02.06.13 at 8:17 pm

Sorry about your reading disability. Either provide the sources, as I have (multiple times now) or give it up.

#245 Brew on 02.06.13 at 10:26 pm

“Yeah, I didn’t say they don’t exist, but they are getting more and more rare as companies are trending toward DC plans for new hires.”

I was referring to your comment on extended health care not being paid for in the private sector.

“It’s bit unusual for the employee to make up a pension shortfall out of their pay. Usually it’s the company that has to fund the shortfall.”

No this is happening right now with OMERS

#246 Nonno Nicola on 02.06.13 at 10:29 pm

#166 Bigrider

ohhhh, this biga rida is a falso, Nonno Nicola is 72 yers old and he can seea falso right offa da bat.

#247 Red_green17 on 02.06.13 at 10:38 pm

@ Smoking Man – I appreciate your comments about University as it gave me the kick in the pants I needed to stop putting off building my own app. I fully agree with your views on our University system and that was a huge reason I passed on every acceptance I received and went to college. Being someone in the mid/late 20′s now, I have a good paying job and a thirst for knowledge within investing, business and computers, but it is a thirst that I feed on my own. Learning never stops the day you get your degree/diploma (I would argue there wasn’t a lot of it going on in University anyway these days, but I digress). GT has highlighted a lot of fools on this blog, but might I add those who are ignorant to the opportunities available with a little work in this country.

#248 Inglorious Investor on 02.06.13 at 10:43 pm

#247 Brew on 02.06.13 at 10:26 pm

“I was referring to your comment on extended health care not being paid for in the private sector.”

Oh, sorry. I can’t speak to every situation, but it’s unusual for a company to offer 100% coverage. 80% is more typical. Then there are health care spending accounts where each employee has a capped annual benefit to spend on specified expenses.

“No this is happening right now with OMERS”

Again, yours is a specific situation and I don’t doubt it, but typically the company covers the shortfall.

#249 oh oh on 02.06.13 at 11:02 pm

Word from the front lines… The amount of lease pull aheads this past fallwas very high, car sales not so hhot so dealers were paying out leases early to get people into a new car…I saw leases only 1 yr in getting called in…crazy all to get year end numbers higher….classic case of robbery from the future…also number of auto finance-lease walkaways is way up. Things only appear to be rosey

#250 Victor on 02.07.13 at 1:42 pm

#207 Ray on 02.06.13 at 5:13 pm

Thanks Ray for explaining. Still the aproach seems biased to show better numbers for growth. To me it would be more fare if they always used un-adjusted numbers. Some transaction canceled last year and will be canceled from the current month. Their percentage may differ but i do not think much.

#251 Cici on 02.07.13 at 9:41 pm

#22 Anonymous
#34 visorman30
#35 debtified

Anonymous also forget that as a homeowner, he has to pay closing and selling fees. In addition to annual maintenance costs, and property and school taxes. Property and school taxes alone can easily eat up to $5,000 per year.

Other key piece of missing information: The amount of the monthly mortgage payment lost to interest. During the first few years of home ownership, the majority of monthly payments go to interest, not principal.

Looks like basic math is a core component that’s currently missing from the Canadian school system. Just one more reason teachers don’t deserve those fancy pensions.