Mom

mom

When I asked the thirtysomething woman why she had her entire fortune of forty-six thousand dollars in GICs, the answer was immediate. “My father got burned on Nortel,” she said. And that was enough for her. A 59-year-old gambling his RSP on a bloated tech stock equated in her young mind with never taking a risk in her own life. Ever.

Why do people do what they do? Live where they live? Buy minivans and yoga mats? Give money to the orange guy?

After too much reflection I’ve concluded it’s because most are insecure, lack confidence to make independent decisions, and end up aping others. It explains a lot. Buying condos. Fearing stocks. Trusting the bank. Pitying renters.

Herd instinct has a lot to do with markets and how much things costs. Houses, for example, are now unaffordable without sacrifice because demand inflated prices. That demand came from parents, mortgage lenders, realtors, peers and the media. As the cacophony grew louder with chants of ‘buy now or buy never’ nobody complained. Global TV covered it. Politicians pandered. A few years later 70% of people had bought in and debt was out of control.

Now we have a bubble and are entering a correction. Sales have been wounded. It’s just logic that prices come next. After a borrowing binge, families need time to boost incomes (unlikely) or deleverage (noticed how many people on this blog are suddenly worried about their mortgage?). This is good, normal and required. The last people into the market will be hurt the most, but that’s why we call them greater fools. Those who did extreme borrowing will be wiped out for years. And hopefully real estate will be attainable once more.

This is a lengthy, amazingly boring introduction to today’s topic, which is fear and loathing.

The meme is now spreading that there’d be no dip in real estate values if everybody would just shut up and go back to listening to their moms. “One might wonder if we are talking ourselves into a housing miasma, even though the fundamentals don’t point to one,” mused a columnist in the Globe and Mail this week. He pointed to a paper done on the US housing crash claiming negative stories about real estate in 2006 created “a turning point in the public mind” which  directly caused Armageddon. “There are reasons to suspect that the price changes are related to public swings in opinions rather than fundamentals,” it said.

This is exactly the point being made this week by long-time Toronto housing promoter Andy Brethour. He’s just blanketed the industry with a report saying the GTA new housing market, “is back to normal,” because the only thing negative about it is media coverage.

Says he: “There has been a media frenzy lately around the Toronto Market’s potential crash and burn… the media loves a car wreck and they are doing their utmost best to create one…

“Will it be self fulfilling… absolutely not !! The Toronto Real Estate scene is adjusting BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS of absorption. The pace of absorption over the past decade could not be sustained forever! As the market drivers… employment growth, immigration and affordability subsided so too would the rate of sales. BUT A CRASH IT IS NOT!”

Of course, when you have to type in caps, you’ve already lost it.

But Brethour makes the bold claim that housing economics are just peachy. He asserts that rising employment, immigration and value will bring back the buyers and goose prices, while the Globe guy cites the Royal Bank’s affordability indexes as only “exceeding their long-term averages modestly, although the national figures are exaggerated by extremely poor affordability in Vancouver.”

Wow. The jobless rate in Toronto at 8.4% is higher than that of the US. Immigration has just been dealt a body blow with suspension of the investor-class program. And RBC says it takes 52% of a family’s pre-tax income, plus a massive 25% downpayment, to afford a GTA house. That’s about 70% of take-home money. In Vancouver, it’s 90%.

And how about debt? We’ve never had mortgages this big, owed so much, or had a debt-to-income ratio so high – and all at historically low interest rates which will be higher by Thanksgiving.

So ask yourself. Are media salvos like this week’s issues of Macleans or Canadian Business, forecasting a housing crunch, enough to override the influence of the granite-loving girls at the office or your Italian, house-worshipping uncle? Does this pathetic blog with its 482,872 visits a month have the power to cancel out a nation of moms?

Hardly. We are but dust.

Mr. Market did this all by himself.

225 comments ↓

#1 jose on 01.22.13 at 10:22 pm

primero?

#2 mortgagebrokeront on 01.22.13 at 10:24 pm

FIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIRRRRRRRRRSSSSSSTTTTTTTTTT

#3 DogWalker on 01.22.13 at 10:25 pm

BC is giving away $10K to first time condo buyers…

#4 mortgagebrokeront on 01.22.13 at 10:28 pm

Garth you are so right,

#5 GTA Girl on 01.22.13 at 10:29 pm

The PR spin this week has been mind bending. It’s as though a memo went out, refute everything.

Then how come I see For Sale signs in great numbers week after week. Sure, perhaps hot areas still sell. But the GTA? Doubtful.

Need 5 more months to tell for certain. In this amount of time the spin can no longer be spun as well.

That developer, who 6 years too late has decided to expand….to Dubai! Yes, the ever hyper place where condos grow in sand. Silly Rabbit…deflect. But this just shows your in deep with the type of investor that screwed many.

If your home builder is launching investment projects in Dubai right now? Run.

#6 tired_of_idiots on 01.22.13 at 10:30 pm

Hi Garth, Is it conceivable that a period correction could last more than two years?

#7 Q on 01.22.13 at 10:30 pm

BC Premier Christy Clark announced today that Vancouver will be hosting the Bollywood Awards this April. The BC Government is spending $11 million to bring the Bollywood awards to Vancouver. The BC Government is hoping that the Bollywood Awards will give Vancouver big media exposure to India’s growing middle class. Bollywood fans in India try to emulate the Bollywood stars and when they see all their stars hanging out in Vancouver some people in India will decide to invest in Vancouver real estate. This could ignite a new wave of foreign investment in Vancouver real estate. From the Vancouver Sun:

“Clark said the Times of India is the largest media organization in that country and reaches 90 million people a day. She called that a “tremendous opportunity” for a rapidly growing middle class of Indians to learn about tourism and business opportunities in B.C.

The premier said India’s middle class is expected to grow from just 50 million to 583 million in the next 15 years, which will unleash enormous buying potential for B.C. imports and tourism.

The awards, which will be held from April 4 to April 6, with multiple events held around Metro Vancouver, are expected to draw 30,000 people in the audience and will be broadcast around the world.

“The Times of India Film Awards will be seen by hundreds of millions of people in one of the world’s fastest growing economies and Vancouver will be centre stage.” said Clark.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/entertainment/Vancouver+host+Times+India+film+awards/7855219/story.html

#8 SMC on 01.22.13 at 10:32 pm

Secundo!?

Are those 482,872 visits, unique visitors!? Great numbers.

#9 Bottoms_Up on 01.22.13 at 10:34 pm

The inertia of the housing market is phenomenal. We may see a flat to a slight decline erosion in prices for a long, long time (10 yrs?). I think interest rates will really dictate the depth of the fall, but I don’t think rates will jump fast soon, hence the flatline prediction.

On another note, isn’t it funny that someone can be so conservative with $46,000, yet not think twice about borrowing $460,000 and socking it into a single asset that depreciates? Very interesting indeed. Penny wise, pound foolish comes to mind.

#10 Smoking Man on 01.22.13 at 10:35 pm

Garth it makes no sense to me but you know I go with the flow….

Canada Should be crashing, USA should be climbing. The Herd Rules.

Canada MSM talking down Market, keeps climbing
USA MSM talking Up the market keeps going down.

Got some charts on the topic here.
Hope you don’t mind, not like I can up load them to your site.

Who wants to be a Zillionare….why do I do this stuff for free. Maybe I should get some friends………..

#11 Patient in Richmond on 01.22.13 at 10:39 pm

<<<>>>>

where would i find the info on that ?

No more Chinese coming to Vancouver ? Could it be true ?

#12 Jean-Claude VanDamnCouver on 01.22.13 at 10:39 pm

Garth,

Love the blog, thank you for providing it to all us readers.

If you were me, 29 yrs old in Vancouver, getting married in 4 months, no mortgage (renting), no RRSP, no TFSA, debt under $10,000 and just starting a new career expecting to make 60K/yr, where would you recommend I park some of my savings for the next few years?

Mutual funds within a TFSA, or RRSP? Dividend funds? Equities?

Any thoughts greatly appreciated!

#13 N x NW on 01.22.13 at 10:40 pm

482,873rd?

Any chance we can get some insight on the constitution of basic well balanced, diversified portfolio…how often to re-balance etc.

Most appreciated as always.

#14 Patient in Richmond on 01.22.13 at 10:41 pm

No more investor visas ? When did this come down ?

#15 ChickenLittle on 01.22.13 at 10:44 pm

January 21 @ 6:20 pm. #151 SM “My crystal ball”

And don’t forget to apply the secret sauce…

#151 again..

Volume steady? Huh? i have seen maybe 1-2 open house signs, whereas in November you could hardly walk on the sidewalk for all of the signs. The volume you must be referring to must be your hair or something…

I hope the market lasts long enough for my boomer mom to sell her house. She has decided to rent.

I don’t have an I-talian house worshipping uncle, but i do have an Italian aunt who reminds us every holiday how smart her daughter and fiance were to buy a shoebox in Liberty Village for over $400k 2 years ago. This is also the same girl who gets emails with those fantastic forwards about something stupid, which she then believes is fact because she has a “scientific mind”(her words). Your “scientific mind” just cost you a bundle.

#16 Skymager on 01.22.13 at 10:45 pm

We are seriously considering closing our office in Vancouver and opening a new office in Texas. Employees are asking for way too much in wages in order to survive in this province.

We can cut our salaries by 30% and lower our tax burden not to mention cutting our rent in half as well.

Most of our customers are in the United States so why should we stay?

There is no compelling reason whatsoever.

#17 The real Kip on 01.22.13 at 10:46 pm

I can’t believe I actually took advice from you Garth but today it was so cold we did not work the crane and I went to open a TFSA after reading your blog yesterday. In it you said why fix the banks mistake by paying a mortgage back too fast and I put $5,000 into a TSFA.

The NL@TB asked if I would be interested in TFSA that paid 2% and I said, try a little higher and we looked at some others settling on an account that paid 11% last year so we’ll see how they do.

Did I mention I can’t believe I took your advice? Now I need another $20,500.

#18 The Patient on 01.22.13 at 10:46 pm

Haven’t posted in some time but a faithful reader these past couple of years. Oh, and still patiently waiting for the big C (correction).

I was out fishing last summer on a small lake in northern Ontario. We parked to stretch near an unoccupied old cottage with an outbuilding/guest cabin. We entered it. Bunch of old newspapers on the counter. One, an old old Globe and Mail. I picked it up. Front section from 2006. Lo and behold, look what they were saying back then. Hint: the Globe agreed with BoC’s Dodge: the CMHC was nuts for backing Canadian subprime mortages. I reproduce that editorial here for us all:

________________________________________________

From: The Globe and Mail, Editorial, July 17, 2006
————————————————————————

CMHC’s risky ride

Sixty years ago, as weary veterans came home to a safer world, Ottawa cobbled together a housing corporation to finance homes for them. It was estimable work that eventually evolved into insurance backing for many poorer buyers.
So why did Canada’s Housing and Mortgage Corp. recently turn into a housing huckster, the purveyor of government-backed insurance for risky mortgages? Under these interest-only mortgages, the buyer makes a down payment of as little as 10 per cent of the purchase price and then merely pays the interest on the loan for a period as long as the first 10 years. That is more lenient than the usual mortgage, which requires holders to pay interest and principal at the same time. Why is CMHC, with the unwitting backing of Canadian taxpayers, backing such a scheme?
Bank of Canada governor David Dodge personally chastised CMHC officials for their folly last week. As Mr. Dodge told a news conference before his private meeting, insuring interest-only mortgages could actually drive up house prices, fuelling inflation. “We’ll have to see, but if we look elsewhere in the world where there has been a major move to interest-only mortgages or other innovations of that sort, that has had an influence on housing prices,” he warned. That would work against CMHC’s avowed purpose of ensuring that home ownership is more affordable and accessible.
CMHC announced the scheme with little fanfare in late June (2006). As it explained, it now insures interest-only mortgages for borrowers “with a proven history of managing their credit.” It provides the example of a young couple “who may prefer more cash-flow flexibility with some of the upfront one-time expenses associated with the purchase of their first home.” In the real world, that is called Storing Up Trouble, because after the 10-year grace period those buyers will eventually have to pay off the principal, too. And that means higher monthly payments.
Canadians are already out on a credit limb. Although their assets considerably outweigh their liabilities, in the last quarter of 2005 individual Canadians and unincorporated businesses owed a staggering $992-billion, including $597-billion in mortgage loans and $265-billion in consumer credit. That amount was 5.6 per cent higher than third quarter debt. In other words, we have been on a spending spree.
There are signs, however, that we are coming back down to earth. Statistics Canada has calculated that the savings rate was 1.9 per cent of personal disposable income in the first quarter of this year. Canadians are no longer dipping into their savings. The red-hot housing market, with the key exception of Alberta, is slowing down; the average number of housing starts in the second quarter dipped 9 per cent below the first quarter. With the Bank of Canada’s key policy rate at 4.25 per cent, housing prices are no longer skyrocketing.
Life is relatively stable. So why has CMHC abruptly decided to insure the riskiest mortgages, backed with Ottawa’s clout? Such mortgages are risky for the buyer and their backers. The agency should get out now – before the going gets tough – and leave the Don’t-Pay-a-Cent events to the private sector.”

#30#

#19 Party On Garth on 01.22.13 at 10:46 pm

People are asking for ridiculous rent on detached houses in 905. Too many fools trying to cover their bloated monthly costs on their “investments” while their houses sit unsold.

Pretty tough to swallow 30 grand a year in rent, plus utilities, on 88 grand per year gross.

#20 Bob kull on 01.22.13 at 10:47 pm

Seems the PR spin has been correlated with a realease of a number of home sales. Have a look at TOSolds they seem to be flying off the shelf, above asking again. Approaching being priced out forever… Holding out but loosing faith…

#21 gmoneyluv on 01.22.13 at 10:47 pm

Another brilliant post Garth. Can’t tell you how much I enjoy reading you musings. Entertaining and enlightening – don’t stop.

#22 Hoof-Hearted on 01.22.13 at 10:50 pm

Oh….4Q’s…….

Actually watched my local CBC news…..and Lang- O’Leary report…..delusional homies re Real Estate TsURD Sommerville ….and Economy in general.

(ROTFLMAO re an Realtor saying the HAM couver RE market will be supported by investor class….not local buyers….)

What else do you expect from a bunch if Snivel Servantes aka CBC employees

#23 guelphstudent on 01.22.13 at 10:51 pm

What’s funny is that globe and mail says that the fundamentals are not pointing to bubble, citing that affordability is average, while a month ago they ran an article which titled that there is an affordability crisis in Canada masked by low interest rates.More analysis here http://www.torontocondobubble.com/2013/01/in-news-is-canada-talking-itself-into.

#24 ChickenLittle on 01.22.13 at 10:53 pm

#6 Q…post about Bollywood.

DELETED

#25 kenken on 01.22.13 at 10:58 pm

What if… what if prices do not fall (year over year) in the next couple of months??
those who were buying in 2008 were called greaterfools
those who were buying in 2009 2010 2011 were also called greaterfools ….

#26 Paolo on 01.22.13 at 10:59 pm

What a mess!

Train wreck…

#27 JE on 01.22.13 at 11:02 pm

RE Typing in caps…
And you know what Twain said about using exclamation points.
Canadian RE is more a matter to be studied in mythology classes at graduate school than the business columns of newspapers (actually, now that I think of it, most newspapers are mainly loudspeakers for the myths of the common herd anyways). Perhaps a subject for study for future generations may be the mythos of housing at its peak and on the way down, next course the mything elements in the gold and silver hillbillies.

#28 minus40 on 01.22.13 at 11:05 pm

When all else fails, blame the media.

#29 mark on 01.22.13 at 11:08 pm

#5 GTA Girl

Funny you should say that. Guess what happened in the US just as the wheels were falling off.

http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20061103_campaignneg.htm

#30 Sebee on 01.22.13 at 11:11 pm

MSM is just covering their bases, but their goal is ad dollars. And they don’t want to hurt their real estate marketing dollars by talking down RE. Just like they don’t want to hurt travel marketing dollars by talking about some little cholera outbreak in Cuba middle of Canadian winter.

#31 EIT on 01.22.13 at 11:13 pm

“482,872 visits a month”

Comon Garth put some ads on this page, think of it as a gift from the T-nation. Can I get a Hallelujah!?!?

Advertise what? — Garth

#32 pathcontrolmonk on 01.22.13 at 11:15 pm

#14 they stopped accepting applications for investor visas on Canada Day 2012, good summary in the SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/money/markets-investing/article/1131033/ins-and-outs-immigration-visas

#33 not 1st on 01.22.13 at 11:17 pm

Garth, you talk about Nortel like it was so clear back 15 years ago that they were about to implode. From what I remember, it was nothing like that.

This was before financial news programs were even around but everyone still talked up that stock all the time. It was hardly a RIM or a Bre-x. Lots of people bought it because it had been around a long time and was blue chip material.

And then when it fell from $100 to $20, talking heads were pushing it as cheap and a once in a lifetime buying opportunity, then it went to $5 and another batch got in and so on.

DIYers who ride single stocks are gambling, not investing. — Garth

#34 Teulon on 01.22.13 at 11:18 pm

#18 the patient
You’re right the Mope & Wail had it figured out back in 2006!

#35 Al on 01.22.13 at 11:19 pm

Add the Toronto Star which today had an article about multiple offers on a resale 600sf Condo in downtown Toronto – Bidding wars are back for the Spring RE Market

#36 AprilNewwest on 01.22.13 at 11:22 pm

#25 kenken
Check out- Whispers from the edge of the rainforest, also Vancouverpricedrop.

#37 noise on 01.22.13 at 11:23 pm

#17 The real Kip

You didn’t actually listen to Garth if you put your TFSA money into a mutual fund at the bank.

#38 Fleabitten Monkey on 01.22.13 at 11:23 pm

Ehmmm, didn’t we also in a way talk ourselves into the inflated prices? Of course, enabled by govt/bank policy. Funny how no one will notice it on the way up and cry about it on the way down.

#39 AK on 01.22.13 at 11:27 pm

#1 jose on 01.22.13 at 10:22 pm

“primero?”

Bellissimo. You get to be first in line when the 10:15 a.m. Coffee Truck arrives tomorrow.

#40 Mr Buyer on 01.22.13 at 11:27 pm

the assertion that manipulation of the media is driving crash-aggendon and not fundamentals speaks volumes. It signifies a surrender on the point that prices can be impacted by things other than fundamentals (whatever that means) and the fact that the RE type is putting it on bad press hints at the RE type’s probable past experiences manipulating the media to divorce pricing from fundamentals. This is a twinkle twinkle little star what you say is what you are moment. Even the shrewdest and most cunning tip their hand eventually…

#41 Suede on 01.22.13 at 11:29 pm

I love when people make exaggerated claims like this Andy Brethour gentleman. When you make a statement like that, you better believe you’re priming yourself to find your misguided quote on a bear chart.

&

#12 Van Damme

Start with a $20 investment in Garth’s book and a couple of others to whet your appetite with options.

#42 alvanson on 01.22.13 at 11:34 pm

#9 – with everything in below-inflation GICs, more like penny foolish, pound foolish.

#43 jan on 01.22.13 at 11:37 pm

Yep, there is no more culture in Canaduh anymore

#44 Alex Hoechsmann on 01.22.13 at 11:37 pm

“We are but dust,” Circling a dying star on a rare bit of rock with water on it. What an amazing thing this life we have. Anyone hear of another planet with less BS?

#45 Joe on 01.22.13 at 11:39 pm

31 EIT on 01.22.13 at 11:13 pm

“482,872 visits a month”

Comon Garth put some ads on this page, think of it as a gift from the T-nation. Can I get a Hallelujah!?!?

Advertise what? — Garth
===============

Real-estate. I’m sure they will pay you a good money.

#46 hangfire on 01.22.13 at 11:39 pm

Whats always so depressing about driving through Toronto and Vancouver is how dumpy the housing stock is. The broken down pits that line the streets of every area in either city make the entire urban landscape look like ghetto revival.

This idea about ‘heritage’ is really just the Canadian way of saying “If we can’t afford a new house….then we don’t want to be made to look like scum by letting too many new houses built in our area”.

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/22/vancouver-ranked-second-least-affordable-housing-market-in-the-world/

I drove through Plano Texas the other day on my way to McKinney…….literally its nothing buy mile after mile of brand new brick houses…..really upscale…..you just don’t have the kind of 1950′s Vancouver special or side by side Toronto semi in Texan cities.

Everywhere we look we see new offerings of really nice homes ‘starting in the low 200′s’……they all mean that it comes with a pool in the backyard…..for 200K you get all the bells and whistles…now Texas has a much faster growth rate than Canada…the fastest growing asian population in North America……so why are prices so low here? Who is ripping off the Canadian buyers?

#47 Freebird on 01.22.13 at 11:40 pm

@The real Kip

What does NL@TB stand for? And, do you mean a fund that paid 11% last year? It’s late and I’m waiting for pain meds to kick in or my brain would work better. Thx.

#48 Herb on 01.22.13 at 11:42 pm

#22 Hoof-Hearted,

you expect RE facts on CBC? Everybody knows you’ve got to go to Global for those.

#49 Mr Buyer on 01.22.13 at 11:42 pm

#20 Bob kull on 01.22.13 at 10:47 pm
Seems the PR spin has been correlated with a realease of a number of home sales. Have a look at TOSolds they seem to be flying off the shelf, above asking again. Approaching being priced out forever… Holding out but loosing faith…
…………………………………………….
you are a real estate pumper. psyops101

#50 Bottoms_Up on 01.22.13 at 11:44 pm

Advertise what? — Garth
—————————————
FSBO sites of course!!

#51 Marie on 01.22.13 at 11:45 pm

Meantime legislatures are are all pro-rogued coast to coast to coast.

#52 Mark on 01.22.13 at 11:46 pm

One thing to remember is that Oct 2008 was the end of 40 year amortization. Oct 2013 everyone will have to go from 40 years to 25 years. OUCH !!!!

#53 hangfire on 01.22.13 at 11:48 pm

#16 M…..a great reason to move your business to Texas is not low wages…..in fact wages here are higher on average……it’s better in Texas because there is no state tax…..businesses and individuals alike get a big raise when they come to Texas……

also the cost of living here is less than half what it is in Canada……gas is half…groceries are half…medical insurance premiums are 25% less for better coverage in more modern hospitals.

ex…I bought a pork roast tonight for $3.65….a dozen extra large eggs $1.14…..cheese is under half…milk ditto……bread under a dollar a loaf…….there are no parking meters anywhere.

the best thing about living in Texas is not having to listen to the CBC hacks puke their guts out every night about lost puppies and socialist schemes to enrich the unions.

#54 Dr. WAYNE on 01.22.13 at 11:48 pm

From the venerable Mr. Turner: “Why do people do what they do?

After too much reflection I’ve concluded it’s because most are insecure, lack confidence to make independent decisions, and end up aping others.”

=======================[

I am convinced that in addition to insecurity and lack of confidence, basic and unadulterated (and often unfixable) stupidity chime in to add to the perils of the majority of people out there. Rationale deductive reasoning should assist to clarify situations and avenues to pursue, however, if such skills escape you, well, you and a sh++ load of other people will suffer the consequences.

This is one of the paramount reasons Mr. Turner’s enlightening discourses are so valuable. Those who, perhaps through laziness and/or disinterest, find themselves ‘trapped’ in untenable situations (financial or otherwise) ‘may’ in time feel the pressure/need to seek out objectivity from trusted sources. As we used to say on the prairies “He needs a two-by-four upside the head.” The venerable Mr. Turner, in my opinion, provides that impassioned two-by-four.

#55 Shrit4brawns on 01.22.13 at 11:48 pm

SM,

Love your posts (for the most part)

You may be right about Toronto. I dunno.

Vancouver is in the process of getting smoked, man, totally smoked.

Hope your not so deluded to think otherwise.

#56 Bottoms_Up on 01.22.13 at 11:49 pm

#17 The real Kip on 01.22.13 at 10:46 pm
——————————————–
TFSAs are not for bank mutual funds. Pay attention (as Garth would say).

#57 Bottoms_Up on 01.22.13 at 11:50 pm

#16 Skymager on 01.22.13 at 10:45 pm
——————————————-
The lowest corporate income tax rates in the world I think would be one good reason to stay in Canada. You’d be going from an environment of 15% corporate tax to 35% in Texas. Good luck with that!

#58 Freebird on 01.22.13 at 11:52 pm

Watched House Hunters last night and some town houses and condos were/are selling for $40K down from $150K with “lots of activity and multiple bids”. The buyer got a 2 BR town home with den for $33K and paid cash. Interesting. We have a friend who lives in another area of Georgia but haven’t asked him about the RE situation. I watch the show for mindless (very) entertainment despite the fact buyers on the show have already closed on their property/ rental to qualify for the show. I’m sure the same is true for similar shows like Scott McGilvray’s new rental property (cheques to the bank) show and the Property Bros on W channel.

#59 Smoking Man on 01.22.13 at 11:54 pm

#16 Skymager on 01.22.13 at 10:45 p

Why is the truck not packed, and you on the road.

Sensing a fibber … Takes one to know one..

#60 Dr. WAYNE on 01.22.13 at 11:56 pm

#1 jose on 01.22.13 at 10:22 pm

primero?

#2 mortgagebrokeront on 01.22.13 at 10:24 pm

FIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIRRRRRRRRRSSSSSSTTTTTTTTTT

===================================

Se Jose, you are el primero grande a$$ahola of the first order …

And you, the other a$$hole who also thumbed his nose at the venerable Mr. Turner when a couple of posts ago he politely asked FIRST a$$holes to cease and desist.

Is there any question that stupidity runs rampant in the human race … I think not … the first two poster proved that beyond ‘any’ doubt.

#61 rp1 on 01.22.13 at 11:56 pm

“There are reasons to suspect that the price changes are related to public swings in opinions rather than fundamentals,”

Now he is agreeing with bears. No matter. The public buys it so the government subsidizes it and round and round it goes. Everyone wins until everyone loses – the magic of distorted markets everywhere.

#62 kreditanstalt on 01.22.13 at 11:57 pm

The Herd is now likely rushing into U.S. real estate – probably just in time for 10 years of new normal flatlining…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-22/guest-post-real-housing-recovery-story

#63 Mr Buyer on 01.23.13 at 12:04 am

Smoking man is a Real Estate pumper as well. psyops101

#64 lee on 01.23.13 at 12:07 am

Is putting money into a canadian financials etf gambling?

#65 Jean-Claude VanDamnCouver on 01.23.13 at 12:08 am

HEY SUEDE,

Any good suggestions for other books besides Garth’s latest?

#66 Keith in Calgary on 01.23.13 at 12:10 am

Putting money in the stock market is like trying to flip houses in YVR.

The market only exists today @ 13K points today because governments are printing trillions to keep it afloat, and keep the masses doped up on the illusion of a recovery, where none really exists.

It’s all about capital preservation nowadays, not casino gambling in which the hosue always wins.

#67 Big Al New on 01.23.13 at 12:16 am

It’s funny though, my home has never gone to zero.RIP Eatons, Bramalea Ltd, Nortel,Air Canada ….!

#68 Wally Wingnut on 01.23.13 at 12:18 am

#47
Your question, what does NL@TB mean? It means: (nice lady at the bank).

#69 Cici on 01.23.13 at 12:19 am

#16 Skymager

If you do set up in Texas and happen to need a marketing writer, let me know. I’ll be there.

After all, I think I’d make a cute cowgirl.

#70 Evil Magpie on 01.23.13 at 12:19 am

The 9th annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey is out today. What struck me as odd was the fact that Calgary’s median multiple measure jumped from 3.9 to 4.3 in a single year. Housing prices barely rose 5K, but it’s median household incomes that fell from 91.4K to 83.9K. See Schedule 1:
2013: http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf
2012: http://dev.fcpp.org/files/1/dhi-frontier%202012.pdf
The link to the 2012 edition right on the Demographia site appears to link to the 2013 edition, so I had to grab the 2012 copy from elsewhere.
How long before things crumble after an ~8% drop in incomes in one year?

#71 Mr Buyer on 01.23.13 at 12:26 am

Expecting the RE types to silently go off to their demise is entirely unreasonable. Especially when they have a good portion of the media complicit in the creation and expansion of the bubble. The psychological campaign for the spring selling season has officially begun. These news stories and accompanying media hype is expected. Numbers of sales will indeed rise over last month (but the likelihood is decreasing with the passing of each month). The elements of the media that over play the significance and downplay the dire conditions we are saddled with during this spring campaign are the stalwarts of the real estate industry and should make it easier for the initiator of a class action suite to identify the main players in this massive fraud. Calling people stupid for being human is counter-productive. There were strong laws enacted against yelling fire in a theater because of the predictable panic that ensues. Convincing people they will not be able to find housing any more affordable than it is now is playing on an equally human and innate need being the need for shelter. Buying a house is not a luxury in the purest sense of the word and convincing people there is something unreasonable about securing housing that you can not be easily evicted from, well that is denying the absolute necessity shelter is. The more I mull it over the more I see the grounds for a case in the courts. Now if free and unfettered access to market numbers is available that would be another matter. It is also worthwhile to stand back and see just how far away from the truth elements of the media brazenly stand. It is well and truly a pure propaganda machine. So much for capitalism fostering truth in the news. Fertile ground.
To sum up. BUYER BEWARE, now is not the time to buy a house. They will be much cheaper as the banks can not lend out so much money as freely as they once did. Ask around. The real estate pumpers will be pumping harder than ever this season….

#72 a prairie dawg on 01.23.13 at 12:32 am

#50 Bottoms_Up

Advertise what? — Garth
—————————————

FSBO sites of course!!

- — -

FSBO, that’s not bad. lol

And maybe some ‘credit counseling’ ads. ;)

#73 Smoking Man on 01.23.13 at 12:34 am

Mr Buyer I just trashed the USA real estate market on my Blog, how the hell can you call me a pumper,

pyops 101, ok I am trying too work for spy services, low boredom tolerance problem here… You got that one right…

#74 Smoking Man on 01.23.13 at 12:37 am

65 Jean-Claude VanDamnCouver on 01.23.13 at 12:08 amHEY SUEDE,Any good suggestions for other books besides Garth’s latest?

Here is a thought, why don’t you write one yourself.

#75 NoOneOfConsequence on 01.23.13 at 12:41 am

Dec. 2011: Mom in-law says “I’m selling my house (in a small community close to Salmon Arm). My house is the best in the neighborhood, with the best view. She tells me she is listing her 20 year old 3 bedroom, 3 bath home for 489,000. I say “too much…thats 20% over assessed. You need to come in 5% lower than everyone else in your range this spring – that means at assessed”. She rages at me – and realtor backs her up. They list at 489K Feb 1, 2012. No one phones or asks to view. There are 11 homes for sale in her range and area.
____________________

May 2012 – Realtor says she needs to upgrade to granite, stainless, new flooring and new roof to sell her house. A 60,000 upgrade. I say “That’s insane – you are throwing your money away.” I tell her to quit listening to the realtor, list her house at 5% less than the cheapest comparable house in her area. She rages and rages…but relents, kind of, but goes only halfway. Now her listing says: “reduced by $30,000″. Three people view at $459,000. No offers. Now there are 19 homes in her range.
_______________________________________
Aug 2012: Realtor says to do upgrade. I say its stupid. I tell her to immediately list at $405,000…it’s her last chance. There are 10 new homes being completed within a 8 block radius. No one has money – volume is low and trending lower. Realtor calls me a liar and an asshole right to my face. Realtor says they are organizing a “realty tour” featuring a bus full of realtors viewing and assessing housing in the area. I laugh in his face – call him unprofessional and out of touch with what’s going on. A vein in his forhead nearly pops.
They keep the price – the realtor tour bus never materializes. No views…now 26 homes for sale in her range.
__________________________________________

October 2012 – realtor advises her to re-list in the spring of 2013 when the “market rebounds”. I tell her that she better list immediately at 400,000. The new houses are being listed any day now. She regurgitates realtor blah blah blah at me. I laugh and say it’s all spin and lies. She rages some more, but still plans to relist in February of 2013.
_______________________________________
January 20 2013: She phones realtor to relist her 20 year old three bedroom, 3 bath home for $459,000. Her realtor has told her price might be “a little high”, but he has a “strategy”. I tell her only a cash buyer will buy at that price – and they are all gone. No bank will finance a home that is 30% over assessed in a declining market.
The realtor has told her that all the “rich oil patch guys” will be “snapping up” realty in this area this spring.

There are now 8 BRAND NEW 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom homes for sale in her neighborhood, with stainless and granite for $375K to 400K range. The builder has run into financial trouble and is trying to blow them out. There are 51 homes for sale in her community right now at or below my suggestion of 405K…dam…too late.
__________________________________________

What I don’t get is that, even at 72 years old, she is a smart, sharp lady. But she simply cannot wrap her mind around the fact that her house is dropping in value.

I have decided to stop talk to her regarding real estate, or selling her home. It’s become a real sore point between us – that I keep telling her to list low and get out FAST. A McMansion located 30 minutes from Salmon arm, that’s not on the beach, not on the golf course, where there are no schools or stores for a 10 minute drive is simply not in demand right now.

This is the danger. This is what smoking man is always ranting about. That fricking herd mentality people just can’t get past. Why are realtors so respected by seniors? IT MAKES NO SENSE!!!

All her neighbors are 65+, sitting on homes similar. Can the direction of prices be any clearer?

Oh…the best thing? Her realtor has found several “great investment condos” to buy in Vancouver once she sells her house. *shudder*

But…what do I know. I’m just the idiot son-in-law, who sold the “family home” (a crappy bung in surrey) and is making her daughter and grandchildren live in a…*sniff*….rental.

#76 T.C. on 01.23.13 at 12:50 am

That’s an entertaining rant!

Now all you have to do is take it to the next level – that deflation won’t be just real estate prices, but many other goods as well. The future won’t be about increase in wages, but the decrease in prices.

Leftist governments (and they are all leftist) with their Keynesian economic advisors will try to forestall this through fiat currency, but that won’t work for long. The cost of production will plummet due to technological changes equivalent to the development of textile looms in the 15th century.

The government printing presses will eventually wipe out the savers investing in GICs while the borrowers will be turned into life-long debt slaves. Neither will be able to take advantage of what is about to happen.

So where does an investor look next?

#77 Hoof - Hearted on 01.23.13 at 1:01 am

#48 Herb on 01.22.13 at 11:42 pm

#22 Hoof-Hearted,

you expect RE facts on CBC? Everybody knows you’ve got to go to Global for those.
=================================

Nahhh…

Classic Monty Python re-runs are better …..check the skit about the hypnotist that created RE …it existed as long as you “believe”….

#78 Bottoms_Up on 01.23.13 at 1:05 am

#52 Mark on 01.22.13 at 11:46 pm
—————————————-
I believe the rule is grandfathered so a 40 yr am. from 2008 renewing in 2013 is allowed to renew 35 yr am. However, these people are essentially stuck in their homes, to ‘move up’ and take on a bigger mortgage it would reset the balance to 25 yr am.

#79 happy renter on 01.23.13 at 1:05 am

The high price of real estate in Canada is a barometer of what people can afford to buy.Thats why the USA is so much cheaper because median household income is so much lower.Higher prices mean higher income,lower price,lower income.Simple as that.
Interest rates will stay low for a few more years,so the smart people are paying minus prime.
If Canada doesn’t get our oil out to China and abroad ,were’re doomed.Then the economy tanks with lower house prices.

#80 Smoking Man's Old Man on 01.23.13 at 1:08 am

My mom likes the credit union here in Vancouver cause they’re nice to her. She asks the girl to “just do the same thing she would do if it was for her mother.”They hand out cookies and candies while they try to talk her into putting $200K (just a portion of her moneys) into a segregated fund because it’s safe… after a couple of hours of arguing over high fees, etc, I called my fee based advisor and within 10 minutes he suggested to open a “Q” trade account as well as a selection of products to purchase with that account… unbelievable how some financial institutions operated. ( I personally would have closed out all accounts and gotten out of there, just shameful.

#81 Kingarthur on 01.23.13 at 1:09 am

Hangfire: I’ll be interested to hear your report after 4 or 5 years in Texas: perhaps you’ll have an answer to that question: “Why is life so much cheaper here?” An answer you may not like.

#82 Dr. Wanker's Blind Trust Trustee on 01.23.13 at 1:16 am

WTF…?

Nortel … what ?

I have most of Dr Wankers Life Savings invested in Nortel….plus a bit of Bre-X for diversity sake…and with a Nigerian Banker

(ooops)

#83 not 1st on 01.23.13 at 1:18 am

“482,872 visits a month”

But probably 400,000 of those are coming from smoking man alone.

#84 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.23.13 at 1:20 am

-
“Why do people do what they do? Live where they live? Buy minivans and yoga mats? Give money to the orange guy? Fear and loathing [in Las Vegas].” — ‘Cuz they’re too scared of making mistakes, but the greatest mistake is not taking chances on oneself.

This classroom of a planet — that’s all it is, a classroom and it serves its purpose very well — is a chance for each of us to learn as much as we can, by making mistakes and bettering ourselves. That’s what students are supposed to do.
*
#10 Smoking Man — “Maybe I should get some friends………..” — Yo SMan! I’m out here on the Left Coast — I could handle a few trillion!

#43 jan — “Yep, there is no more culture in Canaduh anymore” — Only bacterial culture!
*
Proof Wall St. owns DC; Iceland and EU “The EU, with its private central bank, isn’t looking very attractive right now. First Ukraine, now Iceland are starting to back away.” wrh.com; 4:14 clip “If you watched the news you probably think that Hostess was bankrupted by greedy union workers. That’s incredibly far from the truth.”; 1:59 clip US banks have a couple of trillion in the US Fed reserves; Libor Naming the defendants? 3:23 clip US arms sales set record; 11:07 clip How to defeat the system; Iran – Iraq A new oil and gas field has been discovered; High Cost of benefits, and 5K soldiers job cuts.

Germany’s Gold Clawback a cause for concern; Brutal Boomers; Walmart Good company policy? Professor invents new lightbulb; Ten Signs of acute fragility in China’s economics; Sarkozy Moving to London? Robots don’t join or form unions, and they don’t work for much either; Gold could jump by xx% this year; Sweden’s currency; MSoft investing in Dell? Lowe’s hiring As per Walmart Monday, they probably all min. wage jobs; Yuan replacing US$? Davos Oui et Davos Non; Yayyy!! Getting rid of debts / deficits by using inflation.
*
Bathroom Breaks Are we allowed any on this blog? Obomba in Chief 20K air strikes so far; Five Veggies for the garden; GW in Detroit Does Detroit still exist? 1:35 clip Sandy Hook — The assault rifle was left in the car; Annoyed “having homicidal and suicidal thoughts” — It sounds like this boy was on prescription anti-depressants.” wrh.com; One min. clip New Guinness ad; Climate Change “From that moment, I really wasn’t welcome at the BBC. They froze me out, because I don’t believe in global warming. My career dried up.”; UK / EU Referendum to decide; The French Stench Gas leak? The Three Worst SBowl ads ever; Adios Immigration, hello global citizens.

#85 not 1st on 01.23.13 at 1:21 am

Garth, its depression era investing all over again.

The logic is this, your house might go down, but it will never go to zero and you have a roof over your head at the end of the day. You still have the land to camp out on and raise squirrel meat if worse comes to worse.

Stocks, like Nortel, can be zero in a matter of months cause psychopath managers are in control. Next up Canada’s darling RIM.

#86 Ronaldo on 01.23.13 at 1:24 am

#18 The Patient – good article on David Dodge and the CMHC fiasco. I was in central Alberta that summer and remember very well the building frenzy going on and how quickly prices were escalating. A friend who had bought a condo 1 yr. prior (2005) for $149000, sold it exactly one yr. later for $249,000. I remember thinking to myself that this can’t go on much longer. Banks were lending money out at prime minus 1.75. It was nuts. By May of next year, the party ended.

#87 Cathy on 01.23.13 at 1:48 am

I’m been meaning to ask you this for a while, Garth. Have you read ‘Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds’ by Charles MacKay?

Both you and he basically saved my life 18 months ago, as my marriage was imploding and I had to decide whether or not to buy the ex out of our mortgage. I didn’t and we sold it. Thanks is overdue.

This is, this book was published in 1841. It’s about people, you can call it house horniness or something Victorian. I recommend it to the blog dogs for a little light reading.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds

#88 Cathy on 01.23.13 at 1:50 am

“I’ve been…” in par one. “Thing is,…” in par three. Sorry, am tired.

#89 Ronaldo on 01.23.13 at 1:53 am

#56 – Bottoms up –

#17 The real Kip on 01.22.13 at 10:46 pm
——————————————–
”TFSAs are not for bank mutual funds. Pay attention (as Garth would say).”

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Check these out.

http://www.tdcanadatrust.com/products-services/investing/mutual-funds/td-eseries-funds.jsp%20?cm_sp=wESER000-320

MER’s as low as .33% and most under 1%. No front load, no tail end load, no cost to purchase or sell. Slight holding period. Simply open up a self directed TFSA with TD Waterthouse, the brokerage arm of the TD and invest away. It’s just that easy. Check out the returns for 2012. You will be quite surprised. I had a variety of them in my TFSA and they performed very well. You can set up a very nice diversified portfolio of these.

And if you need some direction on which ones to place in a portfolio depending on your risk tolerance, check out this site. Tonnes of information for DIY investors.

http://www.investors-aid.coop/

#90 Tony on 01.23.13 at 2:03 am

Re: #11 Patient in Richmond on 01.22.13 at 10:39 pm

Stick it in Swiss Francs.

#91 Ronaldo on 01.23.13 at 2:12 am

#64 Lee –

”Is putting money into a canadian financials etf gambling?”

This one returned over 14.5% for me last year and I didn’t feel I was gambling at all. It may not do so well this year in view of the fact that the banks are pretty much at their pre-crash highs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/XFN:CN

This one did even better and has a nice dividend paying over 6.5%……once again, I believe the stocks in the Financials are a bit toppy right now and due for a pullback. One to consider though.

http://ca.ishares.com/product_info/fund/performance/CEW.A.htm

There are many more. Check out this site and go to the tab Sectors and ETF’s and check out the many different types of ETF’s. Also a great site to monitor market activities, etc.

http://www.tmxmoney.com/en/index.html

#92 Soylent Green is People on 01.23.13 at 2:21 am

Moooooooooooooooooo

.
.

#93 Freedom First on 01.23.13 at 2:33 am

Garth, you are a true gentleman. I marvel at your ability to write about all of the people who are either outright unethical liars, or simple minded “ignorant/greater fools, with such an understanding of “who is who in the zoo”, and yet, while fearlessly writing the truth, remain so kind to everyone. All this while knowing who will be going to a very bad place someday.

#94 K on 01.23.13 at 3:24 am

most dont know……but the investment class immigrant program is virtually shut down. I am glad as it was poorly thougth out initially. One third of Vancouver is now Chinese that have creatively moved money out of their lovely country to ours. I dont blame them.However no one wants to be a minority in the town they grew up in, Ask the first nations how happy they were to see the covered wagons

#95 Rob aka Captian and Mrs slow on 01.23.13 at 4:01 am

Garth there is a reason why people don’t trus the market, everyone I talk says thier MF do nothing, and after years of nothing they give up

Why Mutual Funds suck

http://www.dividendninja.com/why-canadians-should-avoid-mutual-funds/

#96 Rob aka Captian and Mrs slow on 01.23.13 at 4:05 am

And more link love…..

From Blue Collar Workman (someone gotta do the dirty work) how to snow prof your mail box

http://bluecollarworkman.com/snowplow-proofing-your-mailbox/

#97 goingdown on 01.23.13 at 4:22 am

Could this be why list prices are so high?
Collecting listings..
http://jefffeaver.wordpress.com

#98 Lost Soul on 01.23.13 at 4:32 am

Housing promoter Andy Brethour! wow…like John Corzine how is it that these twits escape “Fraud” charges? I reckon that after the disaster people will never look at these Real Estate Pimps the in a different way ! Hmm whens the last time we went to a public lynching?

#99 pathcontrolmonk on 01.23.13 at 4:41 am

Found a listing on ReMax that seems to mistakenly show price reductions of a house in North Van that has gone from $850k to $750k in less than 6 months -15% price decrease. http://www.remax.com/realestatehomesforsale/426e19thst-northvancouver-bc-v7l2z5-id109683782.html

#100 SCIBIDUBADEBUMBADO on 01.23.13 at 4:58 am

#14 Patient in Richmond on 01.22.13 at 10:41 pm
No more investor visas ? When did this come down ?

When the Immigration Department finally realized that 80% of the financial immigrants are thieves leaving their homeland with absconded wealth. Few real businessmen who made real money the hard way would leave a good business to move here where there is no business. Only communist party members and their equivalents from other countries ever leave their homelands. They need a place to hide the money. Its all about the unearned money!

#101 nubbers on 01.23.13 at 5:13 am

Big Al @67, if only I had had your foresight to buy my flat (condo to you) with cash instead of using a mortgage. Unfortunately, unlike you I was indeed foolish and used leverage in the form a mortgage.

When during the 90′s the value of my crashed to 40% of what I paid (as you say, this is not zero), my mortgage dragged me under to the tune of 2 years salary (oops, this is very much less than zero!).

Obviously, the same is not going to happen to anyone else, because no one would have been so foolish to buy their homes with debt, would they?

#102 nubbers on 01.23.13 at 5:15 am

‘value of my home’ – excuse my editing.

#103 The real Kip on 01.23.13 at 6:58 am

“#88 Ronaldo on 01.23.13 at 1:53 am

#56 – Bottoms up –

#17 The real Kip on 01.22.13 at 10:46 pm
——————————————–
”TFSAs are not for bank mutual funds. Pay attention (as Garth would say).”

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Check these out.

http://www.tdcanadatrust.com/products-services/investing/mutual-funds/td-eseries-funds.jsp%20?cm_sp=wESER000-320

Thanks Renaldo, I went to CIBC yesterday and put $5,000 into a fund that paid 11% last year and I can pull it out on one days notice if necessary. I don’t have the data here on it as I am at work using a phone but they had some even higher rates of return albeit with more exposure to the US markets.

I sure hope you did not put but one asset inside the TFSA, based on a 2012 return. A rookie mistake. — Garth

#104 The real Kip on 01.23.13 at 7:52 am

“I sure hope you did not put but one asset inside the TFSA, based on a 2012 return. A rookie mistake. — Garth”

I’d have to check but I’ve made lots of mistakes in my life, this is not one of them besides, it’s only $5,000 now and $20,500 when I find it.

They were actually impressed with everything I have so far. A union pension worth 550k, another 80k in low 1% maxed out RRSP’s, 75% equity in the house and no other bills.

I’m building a new condo downtown that won’t complete until spring 2014 and hope to top off the TFSA soon with a six figure paycheque. Thanks for the great advice, you’re the best. You owe me lunch for that one!

#105 Steven Rowlandson on 01.23.13 at 8:06 am

Once apon a time I to invested in a diversified sellection of stocks and got wiped out. The loss was around 48 grand plus or minus a bit. Then I started investing in gold and silver and was blessed with capital appreciation even in a heavily shorted market. I started building my position in 1990 when almost no one was interested in the metals and it has been pretty good ever since. Quit growling Garth. Good business and investment is where you find it. As for GICs the interest rate is too low for such an investment vehical to be worth investing in. You need the rate of inflation plus 5% or better and the PTB are lying about inflation to the downside. Therefore debt securities are not a winning proposition.

Let me guess. You bought stocks at the market top then bailed in fear at the bottom. Three mistakes. Fleeing to gold confirms you are a gambler. — Garth

#106 Aussie Roy on 01.23.13 at 8:18 am

Aussie Update

Australian housing ‘severely unaffordable’

Australia still has the most unaffordable housing markets in the world despite two years’ of stagnant or falling house prices, according to the latest Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey.

The survey shows Sydney is the third most expensive major housing market in the world with a median multiple of 8.3 followed by Vancouver in Canada with a multiple of 9.5, and, most expensive, Hong Kong where the multiple is 13.5.

Melbourne is ranked as the seventh most unaffordable major housing market with a multiple of 7.5 after London and San Francisco and San Jose in California.

The Demographia survey ranks the affordability of housing in the US, Canada, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland and Hong Kong by dividing the median house price with the median household gross annual income before tax.

A multiple of three or less is seen as affordable.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/property/australian-housing-severely-unaffordable-20130121-2d2gk.html

World Square – with Meriton’s glittering skyscraper World Tower at its heart – is in turmoil.

A Herald investigation has discovered that Meriton has been served with at least 15 official breach notices and formal complaints in the past two years.

Meriton awarded itself the caretaker contract – worth $2.13 million a year – for 10 years after it completed the development in 2004.

The breach claims spell out flooding problems caused by shoddy work, malfunctioning lifts that frequently trapped residents and defective swipe-card systems that locked residents out of the building.

An independent review commissioned by the owners’ corporation identified more than $1 million in serious defects in the construction of the building.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/meritons-war-of-world-tower-20130104-2c8xn.html

#107 phinny on 01.23.13 at 8:26 am

Garth Garth Garth!

I invested my boys education fend four months ago, when he was born, and I basically plucked a couple of subtle investment suggestion from your blog over the last year, and so far in four months, his return is 5%! That`s just with an REIT, and ETF and a Stock.

Just three. I had forgot about it for the last three months, and decided to log in and take a peak- and that little bump covered a semester.

Hopefully, of course, he goes for a trade and that all becomes small business money, for him.

Off to the grind!!

#108 Nukester99 on 01.23.13 at 8:43 am

KIP: Never chase last years returns as you will get burned. Diversify across the market and if this is a long term, dollar cost averaged investment plan, I would use virtual broker for my discount broker and purchase commission free ETF’s, they have 100 of them. You only pay a commission when you sell. That way you can purchase periodically, re-balance when you purchase and have all your money working for you. BTW, I have no connection with any financial entity so I am not flogging any product I stand to gain from.

#109 EIT on 01.23.13 at 8:48 am

Advertise what? — Garth

Advertise whatever, and then take your dog sky-diving. You both deserve it… O no wait… Use the money to organize some T-nation par-tays!

#110 Nuke on 01.23.13 at 9:32 am

anyone in hindsight buy RIM at $6 in their TFSA and sell close to $18. That would be a sweet tax free use of this great investment vehicle. Just think $40,000 turns to $120,000 tax free, of course that is one extreme use of the TFSA. ETFs earning good dividend yields and a bullish economy make the TFSA the only game in town.

#111 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 01.23.13 at 9:44 am

Vancouver…..the 2nd most expensive real estate on the ENTIRE PLANET.

and coworkers continue to babble on about “asian money, low interest, restricted land (mountains to the north…ocean to the west…US border to the south)

Delusional

#112 Danno on 01.23.13 at 10:10 am

Hey Garth, I keep bestowing the virtues of this blog and how accurate your predictions are to my girlfriend but she remains doubtful. Then yesterday she, almost smugly, showed me this article…

http://metronews.ca/news/toronto/431532/toronto-rental-condos-new-bidding-war-battleground/

Can you please explain if this is just another lying realtor, more stupidity or is there life yet in the markets?

Thanks.

Competition for rentals underscores an unhealthy condo sales environment. She must be smug about something else. Worry. — Garth

#113 Yuus bin Haad on 01.23.13 at 10:16 am

The media loves a car wreck? I love a good game of chicken!

#114 NRI13 on 01.23.13 at 10:16 am

Great post! Italian-house loving uncle haha. Sounds like my family, only different i am Indian.

#115 NRI13 on 01.23.13 at 10:16 am

*only difference. not different, sorry!

#116 Sebee on 01.23.13 at 10:17 am

Advertise what? — Garth

May I suggest amazon travel destinations?

#117 Goldfinger on 01.23.13 at 10:36 am

Lets see how the RE Crooks spin these ugly numbers….

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-house-prices-fall-0-4-percent-december-134400655–business.html;_ylc=X3oDMTEwZTdjYmdlBF9TAzExODQ1NTAwNDAEcG9zAzEEc2VjA211c3RyZWFk

#118 Bottoms_Up on 01.23.13 at 10:39 am

#107 phinny on 01.23.13 at 8:26 am
—————————————
A 5% gain on $2500 (plus $500 gov contribution) is hardly enough to pay for a semester…something doesn’t add up in your story. That’s $150 at best.

#119 Bottoms_Up on 01.23.13 at 10:44 am

#101 nubbers on 01.23.13 at 5:13 am
——————————————
You would have to be really foolish to buy a CONDO at the top of the market. Not all homes were created equally, and not all places lose that much or that quickly. Homes on land at least have inherent land value. Buying a box in the sky is similar to owning gold — more of a gambling proposition if you ask me.

#120 DM in C on 01.23.13 at 10:46 am

NoOne;

That’s quite a story. I think your decision to stop talking to her about RE is the right one. You’ve made your point. You both know you were right. No point rubbing salt in the wound, unless you think she’s going to end up living with you in the ‘gasp’ rental.

+++

Cathy;

Sounds like a great book — going to pick up a copy. I like reading essays on the mindlessness of herds — humans are not an exception.

#121 Bottoms_Up on 01.23.13 at 10:47 am

#89 Ronaldo on 01.23.13 at 1:53 am
——————————————
The “e-series” is by no means a ticket to financial freedom, although they could form part of an overall investment strategy. My beef with those is that there are only a handful of choices.

Basing an investment decision on what’s cheap is like buying a trash condo in Florida. — Garth

#122 rosie "moving forward" on 01.23.13 at 10:49 am

Moving forward this morning on my walk, the house for sale index in my hood rose by 2. Two weeks ago there was but one lowly home hardware f.o.b.o sign to add colour to my morning. Now there are 3 confree and 3 realtard signs. Moving forward, I will keep you posted.

#123 Inglorious Investor on 01.23.13 at 10:51 am

The media is a lagging indicator of market sentiment. Assign value to media reports accordingly.

#124 Francis on 01.23.13 at 10:54 am

CREA Political Action Committee F, and BOC.
I notice that the minutes of the meeting at which Solberg was present have been removed. I wonder who tipped off the crooks .

Nothing down, 50 years to pay, was a conspiracy to create jobs and save Canada in the meltdown period. All this, at the same time US real estate and home owners were being slaughtered by the very same plan that the Canada conspiritors were now hatching.

#125 Danno on 01.23.13 at 10:58 am

Hey Garth, just an addendum to my previous message. My girlfriend sent me this link today-

http://m.thestar.com/business/article/1318272–downtown-condo-market-is-showing-strange-signs-of-life

To me it sounds like propaganda to counter all the negative media but, to the homeowners out there, it sounds like there’s been a lot of media misinformation regarding the housing slide.

That’s a shock. — Garth

#126 Gunboat denier on 01.23.13 at 11:01 am

111 CEFartz – definition of delusional – those who think the US, UK, Oz, NZ, Ireland, Canada and HK make up the
ENTIRE PLANET…….

#127 Harvard Grad on 01.23.13 at 11:02 am

Garth I couldn’t disagree with you anymore than your statement regarding why people fear investing outside their comfort zone.

In your own words, the housing market is ripe for a slow slide backwards, with consumers nearly tapped out – they will go without all the variable expenses to keep the house, and at least in Canada would have a effect on some companies – the US has a $16Trillion dollar deficit and counting – and how do they handle it – increase the debt ceiling -drive anywhere in Detroit – if I didn’t know better, I would think I was in part of a 3rd world country. Wasn’t it just recently that a couple of Nortel Ex’s were acquitted of charges -banks keeping bad loans off their balance sheets – the list goes on

This is just to name a few, there is something foul in the air – and with the world indebted up to it’s eyeballs – you can’t call that a positive trend.

I know I can sleep better at night making just enough in a boring bank account to cover inflation than move my money into a couple of investments that could hit some disasterous news – my parents played it safe – they are living fine, house paid off, a moderate trip to Europe each year – Life moves on – the goverment obviously knows that baby boomers will alter the housing market – bring in thousands of skilled professionals around the world will easily offset that imbalance. Prices will drop – that’s just part of any normal cycle – how long or who hard is anyone’s guess -

They teach you that at Harvard? — Garth

#128 Danno on 01.23.13 at 11:03 am

#112 Danno

Sorry Garth the first link I sent you had a completely different story with it when I read it the first time. The story in this second link has, as its opener, the story I was originally sent. Not rental condos as bidding wars.

#129 The real Kip on 01.23.13 at 11:06 am

Wow, thanks to all for great advice on TFSA accounts. I said in an earlier post I got into one that paid 11% last year but I was wrong, it only paid 10%, so shoot me.

I did make it home and got the portfolio here and it is below for those who said the banks don’t offer it. No guarantee it will continue but I am about to find out.

https://www.cibc.com/ca/mutual-funds/managed-portfolios/mngd-aggr-grth-prtflio.html

You bought a fund of funds, a.k.a. derivative. — Garth

#130 Holy crap Wheres the Tylenol on 01.23.13 at 11:12 am

#110 Nuke on 01.23.13 at 9:32 am

anyone in hindsight buy RIM at $6 in their TFSA and sell close to $18. That would be a sweet tax free use of this great investment vehicle. Just think $40,000 turns to $120,000 tax free, of course that is one extreme use of the TFSA. ETFs earning good dividend yields and a bullish economy make the TFSA the only game in town.

Been there, doing that heavily now with RIMM, patently waiting for not $18 but $35. $18 already come and gone! Rumbling in the heard that $50-$55 not impossible. Looked into Samsung years ago did not like overseas investing at the time. Apple is floating currently; they always re-invent themselves as the benchmark leader that all others eventually follow. Wait and see for APPL. They will “i” something else shortly and all others will play the catch up game. Well just about everyone I have conversed with said RIM is dead, deceased, bereft of life, and ex-company! I have seen their technology and it is solid, so what the hell, its only money.

#131 Smoking Man on 01.23.13 at 11:14 am

Boc
Withdrawal of low rates is less imminent than previousl , anticipated.

The super, the great, the massive brain of the Smoking Man strikes again

My crystal ball beats even insiders……..

As I take another bow again, to a disgruntled audience..

#132 Cici on 01.23.13 at 11:27 am

#67 Big Al New

Hey Pops! Is that you?
Your house hasn’t gone to zero because you bought it in the 70s for like, $40,000, and now it’s worth some $400,000.
But back to recent homeowners, who haven’t had this luxury, in the States and abroad, many have had to sell their homes at a loss.
The house may have not have gone for zero, but when your forced to hand it over to the bank or sell at a loss, you’re in much deeper and worse than the guy whose stocks fell to zero (unless of course he bought on margin, ha!)

#133 Eaglebay - Parksville on 01.23.13 at 11:30 am

#127 Harvard Grad on 01.23.13 at 11:02 am

Harvard is overrated and overpriced.
You have much to learn.
By the way, the Nortel exec were not acquitted, the charges were dropped.

#134 Inglorious Investor on 01.23.13 at 11:31 am

Mutual Funds?

One of the most important considerations in investing is costs. And most people don’t fully understand how costs impact returns.

Let’s say you invest in a mutual fund with an MER of 2.5%. Now, let’s say the fund averages an ROR of 7% per year.

You might think the fund costs you 2.5% per year to hold. But in fact, that 2.5% MER represents almost 36% of your gross returns. Compound a third less growth over, say, 30 years, and you can imagine how much that can impact your wealth in the long run.

Well, don’t imagine, because the author of the book The Big Investment Lie did it for you. He compared two investors: one invested in low-cost index funds, and one invested in high-MER mutual funds. He assumed an ROR of 8%. After thirty years, the difference in the estimated value of their investments ranged from 45% to 263%, depending on actual fees and taxes. So, even if you assume the lowest fees and taxes, the low-cost investor’s wealth will be at least 45% greater in the end. Would you rather have $1,000,000 or $1,450,000?

Jack Bogle of Vanguard (the inventor of the index fund) admitted that with a typical actively managed mutual fund, after taxes and inflation the investor is basically left with nothing.

#135 Cici on 01.23.13 at 11:32 am

#129 The real Kip

Next time ask Garth for advice BEFORE (CAPS are necessary here) you buy into a BANK fund promising too-good-to-be-true rates.

While I’m no expert, but I have learned the hard way the there’s next to nothing to be made from any bank fund or product, unless you get extremely lucky, which I hope for your sake you do.

But everyone else, BUYER BEWARE!!!!

#136 Nukester99 on 01.23.13 at 11:45 am

Seems the BOC thinks interest rates will remain low until 2014…

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1318828–interest-rates-will-stay-low-due-to-weak-economy-bank-of-canada-says

#137 Data Dog on 01.23.13 at 11:45 am

Latest Teranet Data released today:

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/Default.aspx

Toronto’s market would have to fall 6.3% before last year’s buyers technically (not actually) go under.

It appears the tenderset of landings is afoot.

#138 Daisy Mae on 01.23.13 at 11:47 am

#95Rob aka Captian and Mrs slow: “Garth there is a reason why people don’t trus the market, everyone I talk says thier MF do nothing, and after years of nothing they give up….”

********************

For one thing, the fees are so high they wipe out any gains. And, the ‘advisors’ don’t know what they’re doing. Hate them.

#139 Data Dog on 01.23.13 at 11:47 am

Addendum: http://www.housepriceindex.ca/Default.aspx

#140 jess on 01.23.13 at 11:48 am

…”the best thing about living in Texas is not having to listen to the CBC hacks puke their guts out every night about lost puppies and socialist schemes to enrich the unions.”
====================
Since you seem to know about enriching schemes–have you read this one ?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-23/yahoo-dell-swell-netherlands-13-trillion-tax-haven.html

PO Box companies
“Governments around the world have to cut budgets and at the same time multinational companies are avoiding taxes,” said Arnold Merkies, a Dutch parliament member from the Socialist Party. . . . we connect the tax havens here; we have a harmful role in the world and have a responsibility toward the rest of the world.””
http://somo.nl/publications-en/Publication_1397

the dutch ‘turn’
Dutch lawmakers fed up about Netherlands role as a $13 trillion tax haven
Jesse Drucker has another in-depth exposé of the Netherlands’ shady role in helping many large multinationals avoid tax, free-riding on the benefits of societies elsewhere and then sticking everyone else with the bill.

Yahoo, Dell Swell Netherlands’ $13 Trillion Tax Haven – Bloombergwww.bloomberg.com/…/yahoo-dell-swell-netherlands-13-trillion-tax…You +1′d this publicly. Undo
10 hours ago – Merkies recently sent questions to the state secretary for finance about the … in the Netherlands is known to tax planners as “the Dutch Turn.” …
=====================================

http://www.scfgroup.com/About_Us/Tax_Mitigation_Jurisdictions/The_Netherlands_TMJ

#141 Nukester99 on 01.23.13 at 11:49 am

KIP, I am not impressed with the “asset” allocation as it seems too far weighted with equity and not enough of the income type of stuff. Also too much foreign exposure. Not as balanced as I would prefer but far better than the orange guys pants.

Comments Garth??

Top holdings Assts
CIBC International Equity Fund, Class ‘O’ ( 16.2% )
CIBC U.S. Equity Fund, Class ‘O’ ( 13.8% )
CIBC U.S. Broad Market Index Fund, Class ‘O’( 12.9% )
CIBC Canadian Equity Value Fund, Class ‘O’ ( 12.0% )
CIBC European Equity Fund, Class ‘O’ ( 10.1% )
CIBC Canadian Bond Fund, Class ‘O’ ( 9.9% )
CIBC Canadian Index Fund, Class ‘O’ ( 8.0% )
CIBC Emerging Markets Fund, Class ‘O’ ( 6.1% )
CIBC Asia Pacific Fund, Class ‘O’ ( 6.0% )
CIBC U.S. Small Companies Fund, Class ‘O’ ( 5.2% )

#142 Mister Obvious on 01.23.13 at 11:58 am

#127 Harvard Grad

“I know I can sleep better at night making just enough in a boring bank account to cover inflation than move my money into a couple of investments that could hit some disasterous news”

————————–
Being a Yale man myself, I couldn’t disagree more.

The key is to have no overly risky investments but rather investments based on balance, liquidity, diversification, and yield which are managed preferably by a fee-based advisor who’s success runs parallel (not orthogonal) to your own. Then you’re in business.

Had I heeded misguidance like yours these last few years I would have made a significant dent in my savings. As it is, I have lived quite comfortably in that time and my savings are still fully intact. Consequently, I sleep quite well.

#143 Freebird on 01.23.13 at 12:05 pm

#129

Thanks Garth. One more thing I’ve learned and had clarified by this blog. BTW I’ve read many places including from here i think to not base future earnings on past earnings. The best advice I was given years ago by a family member who has created a very, very secure financial situation was to keep it simple and educate myself from good sources. Sounds like your advice, no?

#144 Frank le skank on 01.23.13 at 12:49 pm

I opened a self directed TSFA in Itrade and want to purchase some of the commission free ETF. I’m only going to invest $7000 so is it worth diversifying or should I stick to a few equities ETF? Is it worth purchasing the US equity ETF or are there tax implications that should be considered?

#145 PERPLEXED on 01.23.13 at 12:55 pm

GARTH

LAST WEEK YOU SH#T ON A GUY FROM KELOWNA. HONESTLY YOUR STAB AT HIM WAS TOO EASY.

THE LINK BELOW IS TO THE “EDMONTON REAL ESTATE BLOG”. THEY SEEM TO BE THE GO TO BLOG FOR EDMONTONIANS.

WANNA REVIEW THEM. I’D LIKE TO HEAR WHAT YOU THINK.

http://edmontonrealestateblog.com/

It’s a marketing site. — Garth

#146 Edward on 01.23.13 at 12:56 pm

“…created a turning point in the public mind” which directly caused Armageddon. “There are reasons to suspect that the price changes are related to public swings in opinions rather than fundamentals”…

Why does the columnist think this be said for a crash but not for a bubble?

#147 Angela on 01.23.13 at 12:58 pm

“There are reasons to suspect that the price changes are related to public swings in opinions rather than fundamentals,” it said.

So fundamentals took us up but public opinion takes us down. Makes infinite sense to me!

#148 LaughingCon on 01.23.13 at 1:02 pm

So no rate change in October…

“Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. While some modest withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus will likely be required over time, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target, the more muted inflation outlook and the beginnings of a more constructive evolution of imbalances in the household sector suggest that the timing of any such withdrawal is less imminent than previously anticipated.”

#149 Riverwalk on 01.23.13 at 1:06 pm

Garth – Here is a rare investment opportunity – 15.8% return in first year. It beats your 7% :)

http://tinyurl.com/b9fthyp

Last two lines of the ad say:

***CONDITIONS APPLY …… BUYERS MUST TAKE INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL AND LEGAL ADVICE…..

#150 The real Kip on 01.23.13 at 1:11 pm

“#141 Nukester99 on 01.23.13 at 11:49 am
KIP, I am not impressed with the “asset” allocation as it seems too far weighted with equity and not enough of the income type of stuff. Also too much foreign exposure. Not as balanced as I would prefer but far better than the orange guys pants.”

Thanks man, that means a lot coming from you!

#151 -=jwk=- on 01.23.13 at 1:12 pm

Emotion and sentiment did help tip the US market over.

Prices can go irrationaly up forever, driven only by emotion and sentiment.

They can never go down without super solid economic reasons.

So sayeth the realtors.

#152 Steven Rowlandson on 01.23.13 at 1:13 pm

No Garth I bought low and the stocks went to zero due to white collar crime and market manipulation.

Even dumber. — Garth

#153 not 1st on 01.23.13 at 1:22 pm

Garth, I see that some ETFs are now offering a preferred share version of themselves. Are these any better than the common stock?

#154 coastal on 01.23.13 at 1:32 pm

Pretty hilarious watching all the bulls jumping up and down on the BOC news of low interest rates for the rest of the year. The funniest part is they are so clueless why they are staying low for the year due to a crap economy where they are liable to lose their job. Agents pump their chest and say “more reason to buy my dump in a shitty neighborhood that I have been pumping all over the net that has been up for sale for months with no takers”. Even the low commission makes no diff, the market is slowly tanking in tens of thousands at a time. As I said, “clueless”.

#155 kothar on 01.23.13 at 1:42 pm

No rate hikes this year, might as well keep the party going.

#156 Ronaldo on 01.23.13 at 1:59 pm

#141 Nukeste 99 – my thoughts exactly plus an MER of 2.47% is far too high. The NL@TB is not the best way to invest as many have discovered.

If one does not have the time nor the desire to educate themselves and (lots of stuff out there for that),so that they can do some of it themselves, then going to someone like Garth who would offer much more than just advice for what to put in your investment porfolio. There is the other thing about estate planning and tax avoidance strategies which is huge. In this regard, 1% is good value imho.

#157 HD on 01.23.13 at 2:06 pm

#144 Frank le skank on 01.23.13 at 12:49 pm

I opened a self directed TSFA in Itrade and want to purchase some of the commission free ETF. I’m only going to invest $7000 so is it worth diversifying or should I stick to a few equities ETF? Is it worth purchasing the US equity ETF or are there tax implications that should be considered?

————————————————————-

In my opinion, it is better to manage your investments as a whole. I guess you have RRSPs and non-registered investments as well?

You could input everything on a spread sheet in order to figure out your allocation in each asset class. Then, rebalance based on the allocation you feel comfortable with (Ex, 70% equity, 30% Bond).

I customized my own spread sheet but you can download this one that is already made if you want:

http://canadiancouchpotato.com/2012/03/15/a-spreadsheet-to-manage-multiple-accounts/

So if it turns out that you are low on equity, just purchase an ETF that would get you closer to the desired asset allocation.

Several things to keep in mind tho:

-There are tax implications for US holding paying dividends in a TFSA (15% tax withholding).

-It’s better to keep asset with growth potential in your TFSA and keep the interest paying assets in your RRSP.

Hope that helps.

——————————————————-

#129 The real Kip on 01.23.13 at 11:06 am

Holy,

The MER of that fund is 2.58%. You might want to reconsider that purchase.
——————————————————-

Best,

HD

#158 For Sale on 01.23.13 at 2:08 pm

Hey Garth,
15000 +- visits per day on average. What % is it up from this time last year?

No idea. — Garth

#159 raginnn on 01.23.13 at 2:26 pm

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1318857–new-house-prices-soared-16-per-cent-in-gta-in-2012-report

The “Pigg” must be in the trough.
Lies and more lies

#160 AK on 01.23.13 at 2:27 pm

#67 Big Al New on 01.23.13 at 12:16 am
“It’s funny though, my home has never gone to zero.”

Maybe yours hasn’t. Take a look at how many Americans had their house investments go to ’0′ in 2008.

Never say “Never”, Dude.

#161 Old Man on 01.23.13 at 2:29 pm

#140 jess – the guy from Texas knows a food bargain, as went into Krogers in Dallas to look at a food flyer, as was shocked to see food product being sold for half price or less compared to Canada. We in Canada are being ripped off at our grocery stores, and don’t like it at all.

#162 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.23.13 at 2:48 pm

#46 hangfire on 01.22.13 at 11:39 pm

now Texas has a much faster growth rate than Canada…the fastest growing asian population in North America……so why are prices so low here? Who is ripping off the Canadian buyers?

===============================

This is good.

I can now envision lots of Mercedes and BMW’s with a pair of Texas longhorns mounted on the hood….maybe even a Dragon Dance at the Dallas Cowboys game.

Conversely, lots of ten gallon hats and cowboys boots at the Dim Sum lunches..

#163 Vamanos Pest on 01.23.13 at 3:01 pm

Another good post. But Garth, interest rates will not be raised this year.

We could have a big discussion of why, but let’s just leave it 9 months and see who’s right.

What does that have to do with the price of tea in China? With respect to this post, not much. (I generally agree with most of your predictions, just not this one)

You’re on record having made a prediction with certainty, and I’m on record as calling out that prediction.

Again, glad to argue it with you, but content to just wait and see.

How many times do I have to remind people fixed mortgage rates are set by the bond market? The BoC may or may not hike in the fall, but rates will rise. — Garth

#164 AK on 01.23.13 at 3:08 pm

#160 TRT on 01.23.13 at 2:09 pm
“CDN $ down almost a cent now…..falling…”

Not surprising. The busch league Canadian Dollar has seen it’s best days.
95 cents coming soon, then down to 75 cents within the next 2 years.
The Bank of Canada will soon proceed with interest rate hikes in order to prop up the Loonie.

#165 Van guy on 01.23.13 at 3:09 pm

Are we still circling thanksgiving on our calendar after Carney’s announcement today on interest rates?

Nope. Didn’t you hear about the bond market? — Garth

#166 panhead on 01.23.13 at 3:17 pm

163 Old Man on 01.23.13 at 2:29 pm
#140 jess – the guy from Texas knows a food bargain, as went into Krogers in Dallas to look at a food flyer, as was shocked to see food product being sold for half price or less compared to Canada. We in Canada are being ripped off at our grocery stores, and don’t like it at all.

——————————————————-
Was down in Palm Springs lasy year and saw the same. These sowboids have a good deal goin’

#167 spectator on 01.23.13 at 3:18 pm

“DIYers who ride single stocks are gambling, not investing. — Garth”

Its ALL gambling and like a casino the house is rigged. Lifes a gamble and just ‘cos fancy talking heads think they know which way a stock is going to go, they dont, unless they are gaming the system aswell.

#168 Van guy on 01.23.13 at 3:38 pm

I guess the market correction will be delayed as well?

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2013/1/23/US-House-passes-plan-to-extend-debt-limit-to-May-19.aspx

#169 Devore on 01.23.13 at 3:39 pm

#71 Mr Buyer

It is also worthwhile to stand back and see just how far away from the truth elements of the media brazenly stand. It is well and truly a pure propaganda machine. So much for capitalism fostering truth in the news.

Really? And who pays for the news? Oh, I see. So why would it serve your interests? Want to see capitalism in action? Support media/news outlets that are viewer/reader supported.

#170 Mixed Bag on 01.23.13 at 3:51 pm

#33 not 1st on 01.22.13 at 11:17 pm

A little anecdote on the Nortel stock. Years ago a relative of mine had Nortel stock, and a friend of theirs’ was also their financial advisor. At the time, near the $120 mark, he was advising his clients to sell their Nortel stock, as that was a pretty high high. It turns out that she was the only client of his who listened to him, the rest rode or sold it on the way down. Interesting.

#171 Oakvillian on 01.23.13 at 3:55 pm

16 % increase in house price in GTA!!!!!

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1318857–new-house-prices-soared-16-per-cent-in-gta-in-2012-report

And sales plunged. — Garth

#172 Blacksheep on 01.23.13 at 3:56 pm

Smok’in man # 131,

“Boc Withdrawal of low rates is less imminent than previousl , anticipated.”
—————————————————
I know! Zirp to infinity!
This is great news, with the RE market saturated and slowing, more of the same removes the only legitimate reason agents could use, in regards to ‘better qualify for a low rate mortgage while you can, before rates rise’ BS. Should any sane person be concerned house prices are going to shoot up? From this lofty perch? With this much debt?

The forecasted reduction in growth will just spook the Cattle.

It’s bombs away in Van.

take care
Blacksheep

#173 Canadian Watchdog on 01.23.13 at 4:09 pm

And another one…

Falling glass at Shangri-La hotel closes part of Adelaide Street

#174 IM in C on 01.23.13 at 4:24 pm

Mr. Turner
What is your opinion on Susan Pigg ‘s real estate columns in the Toronto Star

I don’t have one. — Garth

#175 GTA Girl on 01.23.13 at 4:26 pm

#29 Mark, that link you provided was eye-opening. It is exactly what is going onion Canada (particularly Toronto) right now.

In hindsight, those people in the article should be in jail.

#176 GTA Girl on 01.23.13 at 4:27 pm

I hate autocorrect not ‘onion’ but ‘on in’

#177 Bill Gable on 01.23.13 at 4:42 pm

Champagne dreams on Diet 7-up wages.

The dream died for a lot of people in Vancouver – as we have seen the film business evaporate.

Reality TV – BIT, and now the sharks are circling.

#178 The Prophet Elijah on 01.23.13 at 4:43 pm

Thats the experiment these days, managing perception of economics vs naturnal laws of economics, hmm who will win out in the end.

#179 Gideon on 01.23.13 at 4:45 pm

This house went on market a couple of month ago for $888,000. Now price is down almost $100K
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12740931&PidKey=1464766974

#180 TS on 01.23.13 at 4:51 pm

Mr. Market did this all by himself.

Of course, that is reason of the price high and low, you have to take it.

#181 Inglorious Investor on 01.23.13 at 4:57 pm

Laura Wallace, portfolio manager at Scotia, on the outlook for interest rates as decreed by BoC boss Carney: “…the more we’re [Canada] looking like Japan.”

Many have postulated the Japanization of the U.S. (and by extension Canada) when the Beard@TheFed kept pushing out ZIRP further and further until it could be felt by those in a galaxy far, far away.

Asset deflation, coupled with consumer price inflation (either via increases in prices, or reductions in quality and quantity, e.g. food fraud) will continue to push workers not lucky enough to live in the warm embrace of government, to take greater and greater risks with their savings.

Mrs. Watanabe comes to Canada?

The stock market has been the Beard’s best friend as he has been able to utilize it as an almost bottomless inflation sink, allowing the central hackers to create trillions of dollars and still claim that inflation is sub 2%. Yeah. Right.

So if so much monetary inflation is being ported into the stock market, what happens if/when they need to prevent a hyperinflationary blow off? Just asking.

Until then, enjoy the ride.

#182 Frank le skank on 01.23.13 at 5:12 pm

#148 HD on 01.23.13 at 2:06 pm
Thanks for the info!!

#183 Terry on 01.23.13 at 5:15 pm

i could not read globe and mail link….i did not paid $99 cents…lol ;)

#184 Mark W on 01.23.13 at 5:17 pm

http://www.businessinsider.com/30-charts-you-must-see-before-buying-a-home-2011-4#-8

USA numbers.

Go through all 35 charts.

Drink the Kook Aid …. things are different in Canada.

#185 jess on 01.23.13 at 5:26 pm

old man
as you are a hawk for watching inequalities ,

Texas Public School Teaching Kids That Jews Practice “Flawed Religion” and that Blacks Are “Descended from Ham
or this one ….

Bryan Fischer blames the school shooting in Connecticut on prayer, the Bible and the Ten Commandments not being taught in public schools.

or this claim
Fischer: ‘It Was Evangelical Christians Like You and Me’ Who Ended Slavery

who went to jail for the past mob crimes against humanity

http://www.yale.edu/glc/archive/953.htm
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/

#186 The real Kip on 01.23.13 at 5:51 pm

I cried when I heard that glass was falling today at the Shangri-la on University Ave. I worked on and off on that site and, while not the principle crane operator, I was there 13-months ago topping it off. It was some cold that week as well.

The link is some pictures of The real Kip at Shangri-la, elevation, about 700-feet. That crane was a handful on a windy day.

http://s265.photobucket.com/albums/ii202/kipgardiner/CityPlace/Shangri-La/?action=view&current=Shangri-la4.jpg

#187 Inglorious Investor on 01.23.13 at 6:02 pm

Back in March of 2012, after Apple stock had risen above $600, I wrote a piece “Is Apple About to Fall?”

My opinion was based on the thesis that Steve Jobs was the driving force at the core, and since his death Apple was transitioning from a company that was creating wealth, to a company that people were extracting wealth from. (Notice the big perks paid to executives, and the then recently announced dividend.) I stated that when this change in psychology occurs, the main growth phase is largely done.

As time went on, we saw Apple come under increasing pressure from competitors, most notably, Samsung and other Android vendors. A very big hint that Apple’s high-margin business model was being threatened was the release of the iPad mini––a woefully inferior product, and still overpriced compared to the competition. Now they are releasing cheap iPhones as market share shrinks. In other words, they are being forced to work against themselves.

Does this mean the demise of Apple? Hell no. But it could mean its best days are done. Unless they do something rather “Jobesque”, such as reinvent TV. However, rumours of the much anticipated “Apple TV”, whatever that might be, have remained just that, rumours, for a couple of years now, at least. Perhaps the TV/cable industry has been able to thwart Apple’s plans to dominate how people watch what they watch. Pure conjecture, as I don’t know. However, the longer the promise goes unfulfilled, the less chance it has of actually happening.

Furthermore, as a user of Apple products for decades, I can attest they are not of the same quality they were even just a few years ago. Not critical, just one more bit of evidence.

Will Apple be able to Think Different again and restore its polish? We’ll see. Right now, with Apple stock trading below $500, the market does not think so.

#188 Smoking Man on 01.23.13 at 6:24 pm

I feel bad for some economics that buy the cool aid, not trained to read between the lines, they swallow Carneys bs like he’s a rock star
. They come out with predictions rates will be 1/2 a point higher at year end, then Carney shoots Em with a bush masters today.

Follow the Smoking Man, 1/4.after 1/4 year after year… I nail it every time.. I’m a bull shitter, a Damn good one.. So I can spot it easy..

#189 EIT on 01.23.13 at 6:25 pm

The Bank did not say that. — Garth

Ya you guys are missing the boat. The central bank will keep its rates low and the banks will jack their rates up. The banks will make tons of money and guess what, u ain’t getting in on it… Or is there a way? MUAHAHAHAHA

#190 Smoking Man on 01.23.13 at 6:29 pm

LaughingCon, you need help remodeling the basement, I have a free Sunday in Feb……. Your going to be there a while :)

#191 EIT on 01.23.13 at 6:37 pm

Garth ur killing me on the censorship. Im holding back plenty and u still shoot it down. It’s getting ignorant. I mean you keep letting the FIRST BS through, not to mention all the other brainless chatter, and how long u let the devil rant.

This is not a gold blog. Deal with it. — Garth

#192 jess on 01.23.13 at 6:40 pm

from 2007

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2007/02/18/cleaning-up-japan-inc.html

Ex-Daio Paper Chief Sent Up for Four Years
By Kyodo 11/10/12
Oct 11, 2012 – 8:43:40 AM
According to the prosecutors and the defendant’s statements during the trial, Ikawa started borrowing money from the maker of Elleair brand tissue paper in May 2010 to cover debts from baccarat, which he began playing over 10 years ago. The debts from gambling snowballed as he attempted to recover his losses, spending almost all of the borrowed money in casinos in Macau and Singapore.
http://retheauditors.com/2012/01/02/how-do-you-hide-a-multibillion-dollar-loss-accounting-for-the-olympus-fraud/

Read more: http://www.accountancyage.com/aa/news/1788528/misuzu-operations-formally-halt-japan#ixzz2Ip3HbFMk

Nikko Cordial Corporation (株式会社日興コーディアルグループ, Kabushiki-gaisha Nikkō Kōdhiaru Gurūpu?) (TYO: 8603, SGX: N06) was a third largest Japanese brokerage firm and the holding company for Nikko Cordial Securities and subsidiaries. In 2008, Nikko Cordial Corporation became a wholly owned subsidiary of Citigroup Inc., upon completion of share exchange and it merged with Citigroup Japan Holdings Ltd. to form Nikko Citi Holdings Inc. In 2009, Nikko Citi Holdings Inc. changed its name to Citigroup Japan Holdings Corp wiki

#193 Tony on 01.23.13 at 6:42 pm

Re: #130 Holy crap Wheres the Tylenol on 01.23.13 at 11:12 am

Rim will either be bought out or go to zero. The later is the more likely. Rim will see 35 cents before it ever sees 35 dollars. Expect a big drop in the stock the first week of February. Here’s some good advice sell it while you can. The American analysts are clueless. Look at the track record of all the Canadian high tech stocks from the past to the present and you have to believe the share price going to zero is a certainty.

#194 Van guy on 01.23.13 at 6:55 pm

Nope. Didn’t you hear about the bond market? — Garth

I only here comments about the bond market from this blog. There’s not too much info I can find online linking bonds-mortgage rates. But I do see the CLF bond fund has slipped a little.

#195 Old Man on 01.23.13 at 6:56 pm

#188 jess – yep have seen it all, and in highschool had cash as worked for it, so every spring break hit the greyhound in the early 1960′s heading to Daytona Beach with my fake ID to party. The bus did a lunch stopover in DC, and went into this small dark burger joint filled with people of colour. The food on the grill looked good so placed my order sitting on a front bench by the cooking, and all were shocked. I was told that they could not serve me, as my cafeteria was around the corner, and needed to leave quickly.

#196 claudius emperor on 01.23.13 at 7:09 pm

no interest rate increases this year. Garth was wrong on this item…

steady money printing instead… they call it ‘stimulus’
and apparently there is 1 % inflation. That soup at Lablaws/medium size/ costs 3.79, it was 2.79 2 years ago.

I give up. Again. — Garth

#197 claudius emperor on 01.23.13 at 7:11 pm

Red Paul Krugman’s article in NY Times how the deficit does not matter. Bought immediately some more inflation proof assets.

BOC says no inflation. Obama says they can pay their bills (with newly printed money). Watch out when TSHTF

#198 claudius emperor on 01.23.13 at 7:16 pm

I give up. Again. — Garth
————————–

Garth, I think you are trying to be logical, so am I.

But we are facing some very good profesional lyers here aka Mark the Talk, F the elf…

#199 EIT on 01.23.13 at 7:16 pm

This is not a gold blog. Deal with it. — Garth

I’m trying!

#200 claudius emperor on 01.23.13 at 7:21 pm

This is not a gold blog. Deal with it. — Garth

for now…

#201 Timing is Everything on 01.23.13 at 7:37 pm

#191 Smoking Man

Just like last year…04/17/2012…

“I would interpret that as something on the order of three quarter-point hikes (to 1.75 per cent)”

http://tinyurl.com/armjpu6

Suckers.

#202 hangfire on 01.23.13 at 8:09 pm

# 81…KA……I have to assume you’ve been listening to the CBC too much…….because you’ve obviously never been to Texas…. you’re in for a real surprise…….and no….you’ll never meet George Bush at the Wall Mart like the CBC would have you believe.

I can assume that the thousands of Head Offices that have located to Texas for the great lifestyle, low zero personal income tax…high wages….high standard of living…low cost of living…fantastic infrastructure….are all wrong….if they and the millions of highly educated professionals who work here are all wrong. Is that why there isn’t a single large company locating their head office in Canada…..certainly there are none in Vancouver or Toronto…..why can I see a forest of towers as I drive down the 635 through Dallas/Ft Worth? Is everyone wrong…except you?

People who work here do really well….conversly people who leach off the government..Canadian Union style…..are not the elite in Texas…..here there is opportunity…..its amazing to see how many small businesses there are here..compared to Canada…..must be a reason for this eh?

People live in new homes here..and drive new cars…not like the tumble down dumps that line the streets of To or Vanc…….while making higher average wages.

Will I regret my time in Texas…..maybe if I was listening to the CBC wankers trying to justify themselves and the elite civil service wages and pensions….but not from a street level look at real life or real people in the Rattlesnake Republic.

On multiculturalism in Texas…it doesn’t exist…even though there is far more diversity among immigrants here than in Canada……….people haven’t been stuffed into vote catching ghetto’s..the way the Liberal Party designed to manipulate their way to power in Canada. People are happy to exist among the many..as opposed to be pigeonholed as immigrants for life….different culture…imho….works way better.

#203 Snowboid on 01.23.13 at 8:11 pm

#169 panhead on 01.23.13 at 3:17 pm…

“These sowboids have a good deal goin’”

Come on, we are snowboids!

But have to agree, food prices are also very low here in our Phoenix Krogers’ (Frys) as well – fuel was .73 a litre this morning, and just spent the day buying golf gear at an outlet store – the clothing and shoes purchased today were about 35% of Canadian prices!

Sadly, it’s only 27C today and partly cloudy – but still good golfing weather.

#204 Herb on 01.23.13 at 8:12 pm

#189 The real Kip,

it’s nice to see a picture on this site of a man who knows what he is doing.

#205 EIT on 01.23.13 at 8:13 pm

This is not a gold blog. Deal with it. — Garth

I’m trying!

And to continue:

You are not consistent, you’ll let people bash gold or say absolutely ridiculous things, for example “Buying a box in the sky is similar to owning gold”. This person has obviously no idea what’s entailed in building science to say something like this. Furthermore, Le Mad Vlad has two gold links! Not to mention, at the very best, confusing gambling with financial illiteracy.

#206 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.23.13 at 8:13 pm

#176 Canadian Watchdog on 01.23.13 at 4:09 pm

And another one…

Falling glass at Shangri-La hotel closes part of Adelaide Street
====================================

Yeah…another scene from a Toronto Construction site…..Dam sloppy glaziers!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWCsMeps4bk

#207 Smoking Man on 01.23.13 at 8:22 pm

#55 Shrit4brawns on 01.22.13 at 11:48

I don’t know crap about Vancouver, that why I don’t commented on it, I only talk about stuff I see with my own eyes…….

Plus left coast who cares

#208 Smoking Man on 01.23.13 at 8:33 pm

175 Blacksheep on 01.23.13 at 3:56 pm

It is great news rates zip to infinity, I bought my wee bungalow cash, firmcclose, just a building inspection. I got a good deal, two weeks after I closed, helock to the 9s. All in with commercial mortgages yielding 9 to 10 precent a year money costs me 3 coupons paid monthly, every dollar of my zillions in play….

Say rates shoot, up, call in redemption mortgage free in 3 days. My tax farm slaves job feeds my wife slot play, and CRA happy..

I put on 50 huge trades a year, so far so good….

People that have mortgages payed off and not taking advantage of low inflation and good yield are idiots and morons

#209 EIT on 01.23.13 at 8:39 pm

#206 hangfire on 01.23.13 at 8:09 pm

When is Texas going to seperate. You guys know you can do it with the power grid setup. Seriously, that would bring a tear of joy to my eye. Love you lol

#210 AK on 01.23.13 at 8:48 pm

#212 Smoking Man on 01.23.13 at 8:33 pm
“People that have mortgages payed off and not taking advantage of low inflation and good yield are idiots and morons”

I am confused. Take advantage of what?

#211 a prairie dawg on 01.23.13 at 8:55 pm

Average consumer = a dog that won’t obey

Mr. Market = the choke chain

#212 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.23.13 at 8:57 pm

-
#98 Lost Soul — “Hmm whens the last time we went to a public lynching?” — Corzine got off scot-free, just like GS, JPM etc. Lynchings can happen anywhere, anytime — no notice required! Here.

#190 Inglorious Investor — “. . . the thesis that Steve Jobs was the driving force at the core . . .” — Steve Jobs was a great innovator, far more talented than most give him credit for.

A great pity he finished so early. Having worked with PCs and Macs, they’re both pretty good but Jobs’ ideas were far ahead of MSoft’s.

#211 Smoking Man — “Plus left coast who cares” — Umm, I do!
*
4:13 clip Davos Commission asks US$14 tril. for AGW (global warming bullshite). Lefties (like Soros – Obomba_ = financial enslavement and hardship, and 1:10 clip “Investor Kyle Bass discloses his discussion with a senior Obama admin about how this economic crisis is going to play out. The answer is to export our way out of this mess by making our exports cheaper by destroying the dollar in a global game of currency devaluation.”; 8:44 clip PBS Frontline — Wall St. Untouchables; CEO of JPM Conceited and arrogant, to say the least; Food Fraud increasing; 3:07 clip Money institutions must be ended.
*
Frigid Cold across NAmerica. Remember Siberia at -70 a few weeks back? Plus bitter Chicago cold; Soros’ 13 Pieces of Silver He (and the Chinese) want gun control, Gun Control “He [Jesus] told the disciples in Luke 22:36: “If you don’t have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one.” If Jesus were alive today. He would say sell your leather jacket and buy a 12 gauge shotgun.” and What govts. fear most; Drugged-out Super Soldiers Much like today’s ‘assassins’; A Peaceful Revolution, such as Gandhi’s in India. That was effective; Modern Wheat Not wheat at all.

#213 cool pics on 01.23.13 at 9:04 pm

#189 Kip,cool pics!

#214 T5>myT4 on 01.23.13 at 9:05 pm

It is easy to “go to zero” on a house is you only put 5% down and the value of your home goes from $100,000 to $95,000.

People often trade with similar margins on the Chicago exchange. They are also professional traders not a Joe Blow servicing his mortgage.

#215 cool pics on 01.23.13 at 9:06 pm

#182… keeping the faith. I’m not seeing much down in the way of prices in Mississauga, Oakville.. just things sitting on the market for long periods and some crazy greater fools still buying in at ridiculous prices.

#216 Devore on 01.23.13 at 9:18 pm

#67 Big Al New

It’s funny though, my home has never gone to zero.RIP Eatons, Bramalea Ltd, Nortel,Air Canada ….!

None of which went to zero. Shareholder equity did, but the companies still had value, because they had assets, physical, patents, trademarks, etc. (And of course AC is still around, so wtf you talking about.)

House prices don’t go to zero, because they have materials value (lumber, metals, plastic) and the land always has some utility. But for their owners they can certainly go to zero. 5% buyers have instantly zero equity, after you subtract sale transaction costs. Prices don’t have to fall very far for thousands of home owners to realize their houses went to zero; if they were to sell it, they would come out at zero, or even negative.

#217 jess on 01.23.13 at 9:27 pm

dr. frankenstein?

https://www.breakoutlabs.org/news-events/news-event-item/article/peter-thiels-latest-pet-project-tornado-powered-energy.html

#218 Smoking Man on 01.23.13 at 9:29 pm

Sorry Vlad, no offence intended

I really don’t follow van re. Just what I hear here…

Been hearing left coast alot lately, had to try……. Love the links I visit almost everyone you post

#219 Daisy Mae on 01.23.13 at 10:10 pm

#160For Sale: “Hey Garth, 15000 +- visits per day on average. What % is it up from this time last year?

No idea. — Garth

******************

Who cares?

#220 Daisy Mae on 01.23.13 at 10:14 pm

174Oakvillian on 01.23.13 at 3:55 pm
16 % increase in house price in GTA!!!!!

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1318857–new-house-prices-soared-16-per-cent-in-gta-in-2012-report

And sales plunged. — Garth

****************

Sixteen percent increase? So what? Buyers determine prices.

#221 Mr Buyer on 01.23.13 at 10:40 pm

#73 Smoking Man on 01.23.13 at 12:34 am
Mr Buyer I just trashed the USA real estate market on my Blog, how the hell can you call me a pumper,

pyops 101, ok I am trying too work for spy services, low boredom tolerance problem here… You got that one right…
…………………………………………………….
Hey I notice your spelling can get a great deal better rather quickly. Not to be obvious but how much skin do you have in the US market Smoking RE Pumper? BTW some months ago I mentioned the possibility that easy credit may return to try to facilitate a soft landing but that does not make me a Nobel laureate in Economics just somebody who can guess at obvious possible eventualities.

#222 Daisy Mae on 01.24.13 at 11:20 am

179GTA Girl on 01.23.13 at 4:27 pm
“I hate autocorrect…”

*********

Don’t we all?

#223 Daisy Mae on 01.24.13 at 11:29 am

#201 CE: “But we are facing some very good profesional lyers here aka Mark the Talk, F the elf…”

****************

I don’t think they’re ‘good’ liars.

#224 Internet Marketing Dude on 01.24.13 at 2:14 pm

“482,872 visits a month”

Advertise what? — Garth

Sign up for a Google Adsense account and add it to your blog. Give away the revenue you make to charity. :)

#225 Patiently Waiting on 01.24.13 at 3:07 pm

Todays stst from the Fraser Valley real estate board. Note that sales are down 25% year over year, and down 29% month over month …

FVREB STATS – as of January 24, 2013
16 of 22 Working Days
JANUARY 2013 Listings 1921 Sales 414
DECEMBER 2012 Listings 820 Sales 586
JANUARY 2012 Listings 2162 Sales 552

pw