Hubris

hubris

Once a year, because cock-fighting and virginal sacrifices are now illegal in Ontario, the editors of an upscale Toronto mag invite me into a room full of realtors and economists. After a few hours of evisceration, you can normally collect me with a spoon.

In the Spring of 2011 I warned the housing market in general was living on borrowed time. Bank economist Sherry Cooper said that I wrote crap. In the Spring of 2011 I conjectured the correction was a lot closer. “Well,” she quipped, eyes flashing, “a stopped clock is right twice a day.” See how convincing I’ve become?

In the convo a year ago, condo king Brad Lamb was categorical. “If you really want to be safe,” he said, “I would buy a house because, frankly, you can’t replace it. We’re not adding any volume, so what’s that going to do for house prices? It’s going to drive them higher. Unless we increase the number of single-family homes, detached and semi- detached, prices are going to continue to rise dramatically.”

In a few days we’re gathering again. In preparation I have secured new body armour and put a lead liner in my squirrel hat. That should work. But Mr. Market has also strengthened my position, since what I told the bevy of experts to expect has now come to pass. In Toronto, of course, sales were down 19.5% in December from the same month a year earlier, while 2012 as a whole saw just a 4% drop from 2011. But worrisome was the fact sales declined on a year-over-year basis every month since about May. Meanwhile in the last quarter of the year condo deals crashed by 23%.

Prices? Up on the year, but also declining consistently after last Spring’s bidding-war frenzy – now regarded as probably the hormonal top of the market. For example the average 416 detached home topped out at more than $831,000 in April, yet finished the year at $722,393. Sure, prices fluctuate seasonally, but a 13% drop in eight months is more worthy of Cleveland than the Republic of Lamb.

Interestingly, this is consistent with what’s been happening in that other hotbed of housing horniness, Vancouver. Detached houses there also lost about 13% of their value between Easter and Christmas, with declining sales for each month and a 31% hollowing-out as the year ended. Coincidence? Maybe. But sales have also dropped in Montreal, Edmonton, Winnipeg and everywhere else local real estate boards say, “it’s different here!”

It isn’t, of course. The factors that led to this inevitable and foreseeable correction should have been evident to even realtors and economists. New mortgage rules kicked first-timers to the curb by shortening amortizations. Big banks were forced to stop giving away downpayments. And mortgage insurance was withdrawn from million-dollar homes (that alone was enough to kick Vancouver in the gut). So we’ve had an assault on all of those little condos – which are quickly turning toxic – and on upscale houses at the same time.

But it gets worse. Rising stock markets (the S&P gained 13% last year and a balanced portfolio grew by 10%) are sucking money out of houses and especially bonds. So, less demand for real estate at the same time bond prices are falling and yields rising. In other words, five-year mortgages will cost more far in advance of the Bank of Canada starting to raise rates this October.

My big question this year: how did we not see this coming? It was inevitable the US economy would stabilize and start growing again, that interest rates wouldn’t stay at 3%, that household debt would hit the wall and stupid house prices would quash demand. There’s no Canadian market that is different or unique. Only individual neighbourhoods – small micro markets where demand is consistent and supply limited – can claim that status. Cities and regions cannot.

A year ago the editors asked: If your kids wanted to get into the market, would you advise them to wait and see what happens, or jump in?

Said Brad Lamb: “I think we’re safe at these prices. I don’t think there’s any sort of risk with the prices we’re at, so if you ask me today, I’d say, Buy.”

Said Sherry Cooper: “What we will see in the housing price range and condo price range is a continued excess demand and prices rising. It’s just that they probably won’t rise as much.”

By the way, both of them sold their homes.

219 comments ↓

#1 Marko Juras on 01.13.13 at 4:30 pm

So Garth, you see a balanced portfolio continuing at 10% while the CND housing market tanks across the country? Do you feel that there is a low correlation between the two?

The real estate market will correct, not tank. The correlation with equities is lower than between your words on the local Victoria blog and your continued presence here. You’re history. — Garth

#2 25Alpha on 01.13.13 at 4:38 pm

Just a few more weeks till spring sell off. Can’t wait!

#3 claudius emperor on 01.13.13 at 4:47 pm

In the states it was called RA crash.

RE will decline more in Ca as it is much more overpriced compared to income, rent.

So we are talking about severe crash here. It is worse than tank.

#4 DJB on 01.13.13 at 4:53 pm

Funny, if Brad and Sherry were insiders of a public company and they were telling you to buy as they were selling do you not think there would be a conflict of interest there, or maybe a little insider trading?

#5 bill on 01.13.13 at 4:58 pm

well there young Marko Juras do you believe in Karma?
I will follow your future career in real estate with great interest.

#6 bruce on 01.13.13 at 4:58 pm

what will happen to the bottom lines of all the people who bought a bunch of rental properties when the market was rising ?

#7 furst on 01.13.13 at 5:01 pm

This will be an interesting spring market. Prices will moderate, volumes will drop and Dr. Wayne will finally come clean and admit his fascination with everything FUUUURRRRSSSTTTT!

#8 OnlyTheBankersLaugh on 01.13.13 at 5:06 pm

Flaherty may play hero again to the “can’t afford it” crowd by relaxing rules if prices drop a little bit and realtors whine a little more. Keep the dream going for the Conservatives. Why wouldn’t they? If Europe sinks deeper, enter Elfin Deity on white horse with Action Plan Deux. They did it once so why would they change? It’s the wrong place to spend long term for Canadian sustainable growth but do we really think Flaherty cares for Canada beyond his term? I highly doubt it with his behaviour to date.

#9 Frizzzz on 01.13.13 at 5:14 pm

So what are you going to do at this talk show? Be nice and quiet, as per your demeanour (!) or let loose with a horse laugh when everyone cuts a strategic retreat? This will still be an epic crapfest with you as the main recipient.

Too bad you can’t have this docusoap out here (Vancouver Island) after we took a 30% bath with no end in sight.

#10 Nukester99 on 01.13.13 at 5:20 pm

I would love to be a fly on the wall (and not get smashed) at your upcoming vivisection. I am thinking the smirk faces of those that were so smug in the past may be replaced with a new look. Wait…egos rarely change and those opposed to common sense will always find a way to rationalize their self interested points of view. The fact they have sold out tell much about their hubris.

#11 City that smells like it sounds on 01.13.13 at 5:21 pm

Today I am 5th. Sorry Dr.Wayne back to your mothers basement!

#12 Erasmus on 01.13.13 at 5:37 pm

While Garth may not be predicting a crash in housing prices, I bring the following to everyone’s attention:

http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/2013/01/07/moderate-price-drop-graph-january-7-2012/

This figure shows that house prices in Vancouver are actually dropping faster from their peak than they did in any US city. If this continues . . .

#13 wes coast on 01.13.13 at 5:43 pm

I can’t wait to see how the conversation goes this time around. There will only be one person on that panel with a consistent message. The big question is, will they admit they were wrong or continue to offend the populace with more ‘smoked colon’

#14 T.O. Bubble Boy on 01.13.13 at 5:43 pm

Brad J Lamb has kids? Where does he hide them in his condo?

In Toronto, the flood of listings seems to already be starting — several For Sale signs popped up this week in prime neighbourhoods.

I think Condos and McMansions are both toast.

#15 espressobob on 01.13.13 at 5:46 pm

Was cycling along King street east today & noticed a Brad Lamb project. 450k for a one bedroom, 550k for a 2 bedroom. This is a joke right? Am I missing something?

Please tell me no-one would ever sign on the dotted line for that crap! Me thinks that was a condo.

#16 LV1 on 01.13.13 at 5:46 pm

The local freebie real estate mag is chocked full of new listings here on the north shore. Asking prices are noticeably down. You can smell the fear.

#17 Mississauga on 01.13.13 at 5:49 pm

Just finished the 2-4 open house cruise in Lorne park Mississauga. New observations: more and more power of sales on the 1m+ properties, no one (except me) signs into the sign in sheets, in 5km square realtor.ca patch the number of listings since jan ’12 increased from 300 to 360 in past 30 days.

#18 Mark on 01.13.13 at 6:01 pm

“So Garth, you see a balanced portfolio continuing at 10% while the CND housing market tanks across the country? Do you feel that there is a low correlation between the two?”

The historical experience has been that housing and the stock market behave counter-cyclically in Canada, with periods of the housing market doubling (relative to the stock market) alternating with periods of the stock market tripling relative to housing. Driven by an asset allocation rotation away from housing and bonds towards stocks.

For instance, in the 1990s, the TSX tripled while housing just held flat. This was no accident — Canadian banks’ balance sheets are positioned to benefit significantly when housing prices go down because spreads on housing debt tend to widen (spread goes to the banks’ bottom line, and defaults are taken care of by the CMHC).

#19 SMC on 01.13.13 at 6:03 pm

@1 Marko Juras

Are you getting any juice…pls ban all outgoing URL’s keep this great blog clean.

#20 GTA Suburbanite on 01.13.13 at 6:08 pm

So they sold their homes. Would be great to know if they bought elsewhere, downsized, etc, or if they are renting. Any insight?

#21 Picasso on 01.13.13 at 6:13 pm

When fellow journalists start ringing up financial editors to know what stocks to buy then the writing is usually on the wall. Stock markets climb a wall of worry and when they are close to the top of that wall then perversely people feel most comfortable about buying.

After almost three years of rising markets you can’t go far wrong, can you? Well actually you can go very wrong at this point. You want to buy when the market rise is in front of you, not behind you. Easier said than done? Welcome to the world of investment.

Low volatility

Right now the Vix index of volatility is at a five-year low. It has not been this low since just before the last financial crash. Is that not a red letter warning?

At the same time cash inflows into equities have jumped since the New Year. Are these investors getting in just in time for the next rally in the market? Or are they the last buyers in a long bull market? Historical precedent is with the latter.

CNN Money’s weekly Fear & Greed Index made up of several measures of risk appetite, including stock momentum, junk-bond pricing and options activity, now shows ‘extreme greed’ and in recent years that has always ended badly for investors.

Contrarian position

Invest now and you are also going against advice of the man just elected king of the Barron’s Roundtable of contrarian investors Dr. Marc Faber who sees a 20 per cent correction for US stocks and higher for emerging markets.

The S&P 500 index has more than doubled since March 2009, but there have been some big downswings of nine to 20 per cent in each of the past three years. At each of these tops the public sentiment towards stocks has turned positive.

Standby for another correction and then buy? That is what recent experience suggests is the wisest course of action, and expect the unexpected, this could be a much bigger correction than anything seen in the past three years, remember 2008?

#22 Old Man on 01.13.13 at 6:15 pm

#17 Mississauga – am somewhat surprised about the Lorne Park area as is a special enclave of sorts, but similar areas exist in Forest Hill, Rosedale, Leaside, and others as well. Nevertheless, all we do well with the coming meltdown.

#23 Doug in London on 01.13.13 at 6:38 pm

Be sure to give us the full report, including how they react when you really rub it in and say: I told you so! And yes, also tell us how they (Sherry Cooper, Brad Lamb)react when you ask: if you’re so bullish on real estate (read full of “bull”) why did you sell your houses?

#24 TurnerNation on 01.13.13 at 6:44 pm

BPOE? Pass the Realtor Spray.

“BC. Assessments may have dropped assessed values in Whistler for the third year running, but local realtors are telling property owners to look beyond the general overall picture.”

http://www.piquenewsmagazine.com/whistler/whistlers-overall-property-assessments-skewed/Content?oid=2446364

#25 Al on 01.13.13 at 6:50 pm

The spring real estate market will be strong in the gt

#26 Old Man on 01.13.13 at 6:51 pm

Garth never talked about a crash, but put it all within the context of a meltdown over a number of years. Furthermore he rightly stated that not all areas would be the same, and within certain areas there would be sub-sections that will do better than others.

There are many factors that will come into play which are too numerous to mention, and all will have what I call economic velocity vectors that need to be weighted; yes the value of any given property has many variables to be considered, and the one that is the most complex of all is finding a good wife, as that one was my downfall in life :(.

I hope the women in this room enjoy my dark humour, as mean no harm, as was all my fault in the end. :)

#27 Italian Captain for Hire on 01.13.13 at 6:52 pm

DELETED

#28 TurnerNation on 01.13.13 at 6:54 pm

Sick of condos! Went past Lamb’s King St. East project (at Parliment), facing a car dealership and busy streetcar line. UrbanToronto.com’s forums tell of its interior build horror stories.
Sign says 5% down. 1 bedroom + den $450,000, 2 bedroom 550,000!! I bet this gets you 600-800 sq feet. Stop the madness.

#29 espressobob on 01.13.13 at 6:58 pm

#7 furst

Hopefully dr. “payne” has left the building! But don’t count on it!

#30 Axxman on 01.13.13 at 7:00 pm

Lorne Park and Mineola West have essentially gone illiquid. How many $ 2.8 million houses can the market absorb? I have been watching closely for a year – looks like builders have been bidding up the prices of average houses with good lots, tearing down and building monsters. Problem is, they have cannibalized the profits and some appear to now to be trying sell off their inventory of tear downs for a profit. Not gonna happen – they grossly overpaid and have now sealed their own fate. This is what happens when you make assumptions in a thinly traded market.

#31 House on 01.13.13 at 7:15 pm

What real estate needs is a Maple Ridge Dodge $139 every two weeks and nothing down for a new Dodge Journey for all those “responsible ” car buyers helping an industry that is “recovering”.

#32 espressobob on 01.13.13 at 7:20 pm

#21 Picasso

The thing is, try a well diversified portfolio. Over the long haul, That works! No need for market timing. Why would you as a retail investor even care?

#33 Bill Gable on 01.13.13 at 7:23 pm

This is a lesson in being contrarian.

Mr. Turner has taught us a lot about human behaviour, with this pathetic blog.

How do you think he wound up getting elected to Parliament?

Giving out crackerjack prizes, he wasn’t.

So – for once in my life I listened.

(*Yes, I am a happy client – sorry, Mr. Turner – but I like paying my cards, face up).

The thing is – it isn’t easy.

You get abuse at parties.

“YOU RENT, man”. Snide.

Yes, and I am totally liquid, and have Garth and his Amazons, helping Scott, Greg, and the rest of the team, take care of the thought process that it takes to make all this make sense.

He actually cares.

It shows, doesn’t it?

I also find that the writing here is more entertaining and fluid than just about anywhere else. No small feat – making “dreary Science” compelling.

Get ready for the next act, pardner.

#34 Mississauga on 01.13.13 at 7:32 pm

#22 Old Man

Here you go, sampling of 3 Lorne Park power of sales:

http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=12617488&PidKey=-375284460

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12665572&PidKey=-1019107763

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12491978&PidKey=-1845013940

All in some state of near finish but never lived in.

#35 Wade Izzard on 01.13.13 at 7:40 pm

Great blog. Keep up the good work Garth.

#36 [email protected] on 01.13.13 at 7:44 pm

How do we protect ourselves from all the panic and mayhem RE investors will bring to our streets. They will be running frantically in the streets . How do us non-debtors separate ourselves from the debtors ? Maybe some kind of secret handshake with the pinky up?

#37 Hubris — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate « The Affluent Boomer™ on 01.13.13 at 7:54 pm

[…] via Hubris — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate. […]

#38 Ronaldo on 01.13.13 at 8:04 pm

This is what Brian Ripley had to say about the real estate market back in July 2009. Pretty much what Garth was saying. Expect prices in the most over-heated markets to fall to the early 2000 levels. Can’t wait to hear what Brad Lamb and Sherry Cooper have to say.

http://watch.bnn.ca/headline/july-2009/headline-july-20-2009/#clip195520

#39 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.13.13 at 8:06 pm

-
“. . . you can normally collect me with a spoon.” — Is that a wooden spoon, ready to give a good spanking to a naughty journalist who correctly predicted a melt of epicurean proportions about now? Methinx yes!

The above could also apply equally to . . .

“Said Brad Lamb: Said Sherry Cooper: — By the way, both of them sold their homes.” — Aha! What are the chances of them both having diversified, liquid portfolios? About 1,000%?
*
#118 Cici on 01.13.13 at 1:29 am — “Ok, I’m addicted.” — Ditto!

#132 Ronaldo on 01.13.13 at 10:49 am — “. . . who spent an extra 22 years over the recommended 10 years for speaking against the system.” — I understand why SMan doesn’t want to speak out too much about the machine anymore.

It is a troubling trend in the west, that not only are civil liberties quietly being eroded, we are also losing the right to freedom of expression. Whip those sheeples good, and put them back in their pens again to keep them quiet. Great link.

#143 Adviser on 01.13.13 at 1:29 pm — “And thanks to Nostra for pumping out the links!” — Anytime!
*
Nine min. clip How GS makes money (prints its own); Cyber Attacks on Banks justifies a one-world currency?
*
Shimon Peres on Yasser Arafat Quite revealing; The Establishment Is In Trouble, which is why they do not want guns available, Four min. clip “In 2011 it was revealed that the ATF intended operation Fast and Furious to be used to make a case for tighter gun control.” and 13:11 clip Murderers love gun free zones; A real reason? “Prominent American blogger and computer prodigy Aaron Swartz, who spoke against US President Barack Obama’s “kill list” and cyber attacks against Iran, has been found dead in New York.” Ronaldo and SMan, I know why, finally Walmart no longer allowed to re-order ammo any more; NASAspeaks of a ‘mini-maunder’ event, during which temps. get colder, Flu Epi- Pandemic Many people who already been vaccinated now have it; Russia rescues America They are not the enemy, somebody else is.

#40 SilverMeridian on 01.13.13 at 8:06 pm

SilverMeridian Greater Ottawa Surreal Estate Market Update

On January 4, 2013 Ottawa Real Estate Board have finally released its usual five paragraph long News Release titled “Steady as she goes for the Ottawa resale market in 2012″. Apparently in order to sum up an entire year of real estate activity for a one million strong consumer market, five paragraphs is more than enough. May be their volunteer positions with OREB do not allow them to spend any more time or effort on the trivial things like monthly and yearly reports? It is not entirely clear. Anyway, judging from the information the Ottawa Real Estate Board was willing to release to the public, it was kind of “Steady as she goes” indeed, but not exactly in the direction they would like it to go. For example, they admitted that in December 2012 only 618 residential properties were sold through MLS, 134 out of those were condominium property class and another 484 in the residential property class. For comparison, in Calgary, another roughly million-sized consumer market, which is approximately comparable to Ottawa, 745 single family homes alone were sold in December. I would imagine if only 484 houses were sold in a single month in Calgary market, it would look like a disaster of Biblical proportions.

Now to the information the Ottawa Real Estate Board did NOT want you to know. They did not want you to know that in December 2012 there were approx. 825 new Residential Listings, a fve-year record. They did NOT want you to know that December 2012 set another five-year record of approx. 4700 Active listings, and Months on the Market is approx. 7.5, which is 1.5 months more than December 2011.

Captains of the luxury ship “Costa Ottawa Real Estate” should start paying attention which direction the ship is actually heading, rather than just reporting “Steady as she goes” despite the fact that it is steaming full speed ahead toward a rocky shoreline.

#41 Blobby on 01.13.13 at 8:07 pm

My balanced portfolio got me a 8% gain last year…

YAY!

#42 young gun on 01.13.13 at 8:19 pm

I’m shocked an economist would advise the public on one thing and then act contrary to their own advice.

“It has been found that the only people who really fit the simplified mathematical model of self-interested rational behaviour at all times are economists and psychopaths.” – Quentin S. Crisp

#43 Italian Captain for Hire on 01.13.13 at 8:19 pm

Once a year, because cock-fighting and virginal sacrifice are now illegal in Ontario, the editors of an upscale Toronto mag invite me into a room full of realtors and economists. After a few hours of evisceration, you can normally collect me with a spoon.
=================================
Eh Garth-onio

Wassamata U

You deleta me…? anna U have a softa porn site?

#44 Blasé on 01.13.13 at 8:35 pm

Garth, it seems that HELOCs are the true ticking time bomb. when or if they get called in, what’s going to happen when tens of thousands or more folks can’t make their margin calls? will CMHC cover this? shouldn’t we expect a dollar dive in the next year to two years?

#45 DA why don't you mention all the foreclosures in Kelowna too! on 01.13.13 at 8:36 pm

Said Brad Lamb: “I think we’re safe at these prices. I don’t think there’s any sort of risk with the prices we’re at, so if you ask me today, I’d say, Buy.”

Said Sherry Cooper: “What we will see in the housing price range and condo price range is a continued excess demand and prices rising. It’s just that they probably won’t rise as much.”

By the way, both of them sold their homes.
++++

I mentioned months ago that neither of these people could be trusted as to their bullishness on Real Estate since they both sold their homes at the peak in the comment section of the G&M and got lambasted by all the realtors out there. Now the truth comes out….give’em hell in the next roundtable Garth.

#46 Proud Musty Basement Dweller (WestCoast) on 01.13.13 at 8:38 pm

The flood of listings have definitely started in Victoria. There’s too many in my email to look at them anymore. Might as well wait until the smoke clears which will likely be many years.

#47 Devore on 01.13.13 at 8:43 pm

#4 DJB

They’re not insiders, just middlemen. Goldman Sachs (or your typical broker) will tell their investment clients (ie punters) to buy X, while the wealth management side of their house will happily sell them whatever X they’re holding. There’s no conflict of interest see, because there is a “firewall” between the two sides, so perfectly legal. Also, very hard to keep a straight face while doing it.

#48 Seriously? on 01.13.13 at 8:45 pm

That cruise ship is really just a metaphor for the Canadian economy.

Goofy leadership, showing off, running at full throttle onto the rocks.

Then they’re the first ones into the life boats and blame the cooks and servers for making bad decisions and creating the disastrous outcome.

Seriously

#49 Devore on 01.13.13 at 8:49 pm

#5 bill

Marko will do fine, as he seems like a decent realtor. However, he is one in a long line on trolls trying to get a rise out of Garth (or just plain annoying him) by pretending to ask a legitimate question. None of them post to GF any more. Probably on their own, because trolling is hard thankless work if no one bites, not to mention not entertaining in the slightest if the desired response is not produced. This is why DA keeps disappearing.

#50 Concessionman on 01.13.13 at 8:54 pm

1 Left!

Can’t wait (but will) to dig out the Vulch hat…

#51 a prairie dawg on 01.13.13 at 8:54 pm

Garth,

For me, it would be very hard to get up in front of all of them and fight the urge to flash them the LOSER sign with thumb and forefinger while pointing at them all with the other hand.

It would be a great icebreaker right off the top. lol

#52 Amazed on 01.13.13 at 8:54 pm

@mississauga… Didn’t do y open house rounds today as was having a family day… Plus spouse says we have to wait for the melt. I’m glad you and others have observed the same things I have. Builders bought up every lot… It’s all just speculators. I think every 2 million dollar home has at least one pick up sitting in front of it. The banks are not letting those power of sales go easily. Most interesting are the sounds of crickets at the last open house I went to. I feel like realtors are on edge… Things are changing. I often wonder how many people are sitting on the sidelines just watching and waiting and if this blog has any evidence it looks like there are quite a few of us in the GTA. Diversified and waiting…

#53 Old Man on 01.13.13 at 8:56 pm

#34 Mississauga – this is all new stuff built in the past few years, whereby, horny married couples with good incomes leveraged with no real assets bought the dream, and now has become a nightmare. This is my take, as Lorne Park is a wealthy established area, so a few will bite the dust, but the majority established ownership in the area will just smile at it all with equity, asset portfolios, huge incomes, and money in the bank.

#54 Old Man on 01.13.13 at 9:01 pm

# 36 TRT – methinks you protest too much, and in my rant room would just say, CLICK. It is very nasty place, and do not come there.

#55 The Man From Nantucket on 01.13.13 at 9:03 pm

Albatross!

#56 Freedom First on 01.13.13 at 9:03 pm

I have perfect hearing, so I don’t know why it is that Brad Cooper and Sherry Cooper always sound the same to me. Not only in what they are saying, but their voices too. Their finger scratching the chalkboard sounds make me have to turn down the volume. When other people are in the room with me, I just use earplugs, which work very well too. Doesn’t work to make what they are saying less irritating though. I think it is most unfortunate that both of them listening to Garth has not helped them. Gee, I wonder why:)

#57 Devore on 01.13.13 at 9:09 pm

#41 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad

“Said Brad Lamb: Said Sherry Cooper: — By the way, both of them sold their homes.” — Aha! What are the chances of them both having diversified, liquid portfolios? About 1,000%?

They both make enough money to live very comfortably, and put plenty away. They are not stupid.

My guess is they sold to downsize into more modest accommodations, for “personal and family reasons”. Fair enough, but the timing was sure curious, as I recall Sherry listed her Hogg’s Hollow mansion spring last year, when they were both publicly bullish on real estate. Garth posted the listing.

#58 2nd Last on 01.13.13 at 9:13 pm

Sherry Cooper has announced her retirement as chief economist at BMO (Douglas Porter stepping up to fill her high heels) – perhaps she is taking Mark Carney’s lead and pulling the chute just as the housing market starts to rollover. I wonder if Carney is getting accolades from Greenspan and W for his exit timing?

#59 DR. WAYNE on 01.13.13 at 9:17 pm

#29 espressobob on 01.13.13 at 6:58 pm

=============

That’s right … don’t bet on it, Robert …

#60 Daisy Mae on 01.13.13 at 9:23 pm

“My big question this year: how did we not see this coming?”

**********************

Most didn’t WANT to see it coming. Most wanted to believe Canada was ‘different’ and, unfortunately, they listened to the government, media, CREA, and the realtors. As always, we are learning the hard way….

#61 Daisy Mae on 01.13.13 at 9:27 pm

“In the Spring of 2011 I conjectured the correction was a lot closer. “Well,” she quipped, eyes flashing, “a stopped clock is right twice a day.”

****************

How profound….

#62 Daisy Mae on 01.13.13 at 9:35 pm

Brad Lamb was categorical. “Unless we increase the number of single-family homes, detached and semi- detached, prices are going to continue to rise dramatically.”

******************

What a stupid, empty comment….

#63 periwinkles on 01.13.13 at 9:46 pm

Sherry lives in overpriced, delusional crap right next to the CBC receiving. No amount of valet parking & bowler hats at the front door can deceive it.

#64 bill on 01.13.13 at 9:49 pm

#51 Devore on 01.13.13 at 8:49 pm
well I sort of agree with you . still going to keep an eye on him .
he certainly rates somewhat higher than the some of the floor traders on the old vse [ my personal benchmark for venality ]…but he has a similar attitude towards the public I fear.

#65 Intuitive Missus on 01.13.13 at 10:01 pm

Kenny Rogers sang…..

You gotta know when to hold ‘em
Know when to fold ‘em
Know when to walk away
Know when to run

We walked away Spring 2011 – and glad we did.

Spring 2012 would have been time to fold ‘em.

Now would be the time to run.

#66 Mr Buyer on 01.13.13 at 10:01 pm

How can any reasonable person even pretend to believe the prices of homes are at such horrific levels for any reason other than loaned money?

#67 furst on 01.13.13 at 10:02 pm

#29 espressobob on 01.13.13 at 6:58 pm

Hopefully dr. “payne” has left the building! But don’t count on it!
__________________________
Totally agree EB! But I think your intuition is unfortunately correct here. Dr. ‘Wayne in the a$$’ is way too stubborn and annoying to leave the building or anywhere for that matter…

#68 bill on 01.13.13 at 10:03 pm

Ah, Brad! ah, sherri! thou’ll get thy fairin’!
In hell they’ll roast thee like a herrin’!

#69 Amazed on 01.13.13 at 10:05 pm

@mississauga… I probably agree with old man about many people being ok in lornepark… But there are lots of people in mineola west, se oakville who built or did a Reno in the last few years who truly cannot afford the lifestyle.

#70 Amazed on 01.13.13 at 10:06 pm

In oakville Bryan bauemlers house is still for sale… A sign of the times?

#71 The Man From Nantucket on 01.13.13 at 10:06 pm

#34 Mississauga on 01.13.13 at 7:32 pm
……….sampling of 3 Lorne Park power of sales:

……….. http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12491978&PidKey=-1845013940
———————————————————–

Does this one come with a view of the Petro Canada refinery and occasional eau de Clarkson Sewage Treatment Plant?

The first two are better located despite crappier walk scores.

The first might move the quickest.

The second is an oddball built to someone’s tastes…..that might be the hardest one to sell.

These ‘hoods are full of estate homes and old money so it’s an interesting market that won’t necessarily sell quickly.

Old Man, I don’t think you can really validly compare this to the Toronto ‘C’ hoods you cited. This is a different kind of rich man that wants to buy these homes.

#72 bill on 01.13.13 at 10:14 pm

apologies to the bard- Robert Burns

#73 coastal on 01.13.13 at 10:23 pm

“By the way, both of them sold their homes.”

Isn’t that so typical though ? Just like one agent I heard of pumping that the market will never fall hard yet only owns some closet sized condo for under $200K and brags of his 10% profit on it like he’s some genius. You would think those that brag of their massive profits and promote the hardest, (especially on these blogs) would have some real skin in the game with minimum owning a bungalow on a piece of land, not a shoebox.

#74 Mr Buyer on 01.13.13 at 10:24 pm

What is upon us will be considered in retrospect epic. There is no possible way to reconcile wages and house prices without some sort of cataclysm. Something has to give, wages, prices or maybe most of us will not be buying homes going forward or not eating meat so much or generally going without money.

#75 Ms bboomer on 01.13.13 at 10:24 pm

It sure was nice reading comments without Dr Wayne, he puts quite a negative atmosphere to this blog.

#76 Hoof - Hearted on 01.13.13 at 10:27 pm

Dr Wanker..

Go to the Opthamologist…

Ya not see the perfect punchline in the photo…

That’s an a$$hole $taring up at the albatro$$

#77 espressobob on 01.13.13 at 10:34 pm

# 49 Devore

And as always, you nailed that one!

#78 The end is nigh on 01.13.13 at 10:36 pm

“Both of them sold”,
Disgusting. And I’m sure they are out there as Consultants again.
Lot’s of Greater Fools left to be screwed.

#79 Axxman on 01.13.13 at 10:36 pm

#73 The Man – the second house (the big box with windows) was a spec house built by a builder who allegedly skipped town. The bank (Hot Sauce and Blue Cheese) reportedly messed up their security filing, which allowed other secured debt to trump them, and are owed over $4 million on it. The house is not finished inside. Some cupboard doors are missing, a big “water feature” in the main lobby is defunct, and wiring is hanging from the ceiling (BTW – how do you change a light bulb that is 18 feet in the air?)…..my guess is you’d need to put another $75 – 100 grand into it just to make it livable.

#80 Old Man on 01.13.13 at 10:37 pm

#67 Amazed – as with any area, homes were built in all established sections throughout the Toronto area for those to be hooped with cheap money with good family income, but no real cash assets to buy the pie in the sky, and now they have a problem with expenses or cashflow, and omg are under a power of sale. It was all a matter of greed and look at me, and feel no pity for them in the least, as buy what you can afford with a sense of prudence, and forget living in a sense of denial or some illusion of being wealthy by buying a pile of debt.

#81 Marko Juras on 01.13.13 at 10:45 pm

#5 “well there young Marko Juras do you believe in Karma?

DELETED

#82 Smoking Man's Old Man on 01.13.13 at 10:47 pm

DELETED

#83 Seven Stars and Orion on 01.13.13 at 10:49 pm

I hope Garth enjoys every delicious second of that meeting.

#84 HogtownIndebted on 01.13.13 at 10:55 pm

#14 T.O. Bubble Boy

Interesting observation you make and a good point.

I was thinking the same thing today driving between Eglinton West and Lawrence Park. We were noticing all the new for sale and for lease signs along the route, and with the weirdly warm weather it felt aloost springlike.

Some of these places are not even on MLS yet tonight, so it seems like realtors are telling people to use the weather to jump the gun. This is what Garth has been suggesting, but even a week or two earlier. I heard some of the usual blather on talk radio tonight from realtors saying that the spring market is coming fast and will prove all the pessimists wrong

#85 HogtownIndebted on 01.13.13 at 10:56 pm

#14 T.O. Bubble Boy

Interesting observation you make and a good point.

I was thinking the same thing today driving between Eglinton West and Lawrence Park. We were noticing all the new for sale and for lease signs along the route, and with the weirdly warm weather it felt almost springlike.

Some of these places are not even on MLS yet tonight, so it seems like realtors are telling people to use the weather to jump the gun. This is what Garth has been suggesting about spring sales, but even a week or two earlier.

I also heard some of the usual blather on talk radio tonight from realtors saying that the spring market is coming fast and will prove all the pessimists wrong.

#86 martin9999 on 01.13.13 at 11:05 pm

Everyone has forgotton about the debt ceiling issue.
to much confidence in the markets.

#87 45north on 01.13.13 at 11:17 pm

Intuitive Missus: We walked away Spring 2011

Spring 2012 would have been time to fold ‘em.

Now would be the time to run.

yep

Man from Nantucket: The second is an oddball

Axxman: the second house was a spec house built by a builder who allegedly skipped town.

so I just read about “power of sale” in Ontario. The bank has an obligation to sell for market value. It also is obliged to notify the owner and his wife which sounds like it may not be so simple and it has an obligation to allow the owner to redeem the property. And you say there are other parties with an interest.

So at the bank, someone looks at the lawyers expenses and signs the cheques. What would that someone be called – I mean officially?

#88 AK on 01.13.13 at 11:36 pm

#87 martin9999 on 01.13.13 at 11:05 pm

“Everyone has forgotton about the debt ceiling issue.
to much confidence in the markets.”

Everyone may have forgotten about it, except for the Market.

The market has already priced in all the nonsense. It will be moving a lot higher after the resolution is announced.

#89 bill on 01.13.13 at 11:39 pm

And a hearty ”deleted” to you too Marko…

#90 Joe on 01.13.13 at 11:57 pm

Nice button on that Garth, checkmate.

#91 Thomas on 01.13.13 at 11:59 pm

Are you able to take a hidden camera to the meeting?

#92 robert on 01.14.13 at 12:06 am

Time is the teller of all truth and all of these cheerleaders are no different than the CNBC clowns. Let the chips fall where they may knowing that you are liquid should allow you to sleep much better than those that have huge debt tied to a depreciating commodity and note i did not use the term asset. The banks see it coming and are very nervous as suddenly they are calling for appraisals on most deals. Note too that they are offering a 10 year closed at 3.99%, hoping to suck in a few more greater fools.

#93 Marko Juras on 01.14.13 at 12:07 am

DELETED

#94 DR. WAYNE on 01.14.13 at 12:14 am

#69 furst on 01.13.13 at 10:02 pm

=============

It takes an annoying stubborn S.O.B. to ‘think’ he knows one.

#95 Smoking Man on 01.14.13 at 12:25 am

who is jimmy in pulp fiction?

#96 Christopher Lackey on 01.14.13 at 12:26 am

Garth is so busy hammering on real estate day in and day out that the average Canadian’s interest-only five figure credit lines, 7 year amortization car loans, credit card balances, department & furniture store cards and three year smartphone contracts get lost in the shuffle. Surely we are a nation of the greatest fools or just losers who can’t seem to keep up with the joneses and have zero financial literacyé

#97 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.14.13 at 12:30 am

-
#44 young gun — “It has been found that the only people who really fit the simplified mathematical model of self-interested rational behaviour at all times are economists and psychopaths.” – Quentin S. Crisp

See who is in charge of the west. That is a fairly good example — New Brit. stealth drone. Western govts. are scared of their own citizens.
*
Chart (Death Spiral) These eleven states have more people on welfare than in the workforce; Citi reveals debt ceiling end game, and 2:30 clip on Paper Trails First they come for the guns. Then, precious metals; Bonuses and Austerity. Choose simply; Sequestering working and middle class; Banxter wins again; Wind Farms More expensive bills than thought; eBay Competition; Hyperconnected World and the risks; Catalonia (Spain) drafting sovereignty vote; Keynesian Inflation; No Housing Boom just yet; Libor Fines Someone has to pay them.
*
0:13 clip Trust me, this is one tough vampire mouse, and 0:55 clip WTF?? Is this the after-birth of a spider? 1:57 clip Could be a dolphin stampede in progress; Free Speech SMan and Ronaldo, this is what I mentioned earlier; Hairy (from Garth’s old blog) Her Majesty the King needs you in Limeyland. Dress nicely and be on your best behavior; Wary of Revolution Chinese brushing up on history; Vitamin D2 vs. D3 Which is better? Pentagon ‘Owzaboud gun control for the Pentagon? Child Trafficking 84% rise in UK; Facial Recognition on Panasonic TV’s; Cold as Ice in UK and the western half here, blazing in Oz; Flooding As well as weather woes, the UK is having immigrant woes; Giant croc vs. Great White Things are testy under the sea; 12:02 clip McChrystal speaks on draft coming back.

#98 Guy1 on 01.14.13 at 12:35 am

As always, excellent blog entry :)

#99 Gordon Lighfoot on 01.14.13 at 12:40 am

Any requests for a song about a FQQQ’d ship?

#100 dosouth on 01.14.13 at 12:48 am

Well #83 Marko Juras on 01.13.13 at 10:45 pm – you should be happy your posts are posted here. I have posted reasonable questions on your “realtors blog” which never appear, unless they are aligned with your realtor speak.

Yes more than once you have failed to post comments. Stop trolling here and make a reasonable addition to the dialogue. Start posting all the comments to your blog and answer them accordingly and maybe, just maybe you will get a bit more “understanding or respect”

#101 dosouth on 01.14.13 at 12:53 am

Here’s one for the records –

Overheard in Nanaimo…’Got a killer deal this past week. $480k for a place that was listed for $789k and assessed @ $707k just this week…..”

http://www.inmocentral.com/en/publications/59770-canada-british-columbia-290-woodhaven-drive-0#ad-image-5

Apparently the owner wasn’t happy and took a few lights and fixtures with him on his exit….

#102 TakingResponsibility on 01.14.13 at 1:11 am

I’m kinda’ missing the ol’ fiscal cliff.

; )

#103 Derek R on 01.14.13 at 1:28 am

#70 bill on 01.13.13 at 10:03 pm wrote:
Ah, Brad! ah, sherri! thou’ll get thy fairin’!
In hell they’ll roast thee like a herrin’!

I love Tam o’Shanter but Burns wrote a poem about a mouse losing its home and that’s the one that’s most appropriate to the situation of many young Canadians.

But, Mousie, thou art no thy lane,
In proving foresight may be vain:
The best laid schemes of mice and men
Gang oft agley.
And leave us nought but grief and pain
For promised joy.

A great poet with his finger on the pulse. Remember to raise a glass to his memory on his birthday, the 25th.

#104 bill on 01.14.13 at 1:32 am

”There is no terror, Cassius, in your threats,
For I am arm’d so strong in honesty,
That they pass by me as the idle wind
Which I respect not.”
-with respect to the other Bard

#105 GTA Girl on 01.14.13 at 1:39 am

That developer son who likes to play cowboy and takes his stripper girlfriends to Leafs games and gets a hoot when the cameramen flash pics of the GF’s silicone cleavage on the Jumbotron??

No not that guy…the guy who wears the cowboy hat.

They have a project at Bathurst and hwy 407. McMansions on small lots, w/architectural elements y designer-du-jour Gluckstein. Asking price? Starting price…$2million

Yes, for $2mill+ you get a cookie cutter home in a pre-existing subdivision. “Prestige” says the developer….the only prestige is you get a backyard that backs onto hwy 407.

#106 Bo Xilai on 01.14.13 at 2:10 am

In reference to you, Sherry Cooper said “a stopped clock is right twice a day.”

That’s rich… She’s the chief economist who said Canada should give up on the Canadian Dollar and link it to the US dollar in 2001… back when the C$ was trading for 63 US cents.

Garth, maybe you should tell Sherry to look in the mirror is she wants to see the prognosticator who couldn’t shoot straight.

#107 Tony on 01.14.13 at 2:13 am

Re: #32 espressobob on 01.13.13 at 7:20 pm

The same thing will happen that happened in the crash of’29 everyone except the short sellers will be wiped out including the holders of gold and silver.

#108 Teulon on 01.14.13 at 2:25 am

#84 The fact this post made it past the moderator is disappointing. Gay bashing and racist commentary have no place on this blog.

It was missed in error. Now gone. — Garth

#109 Ogopogo on 01.14.13 at 2:52 am

Marko and the rest of the zombie realtors on the Victoria blog are frothing at the mouth in that sad, empty place. It reminds me of those forgotten, pre-blog 90s “forums”.

Marko writes, “At least the traffic to my website is crazy, 330 people have gone to my website off his blog for an average of almost 2 minutes which is amazing.”

Enjoy your 15 seconds of fame, realtor. While Garth gets millions of hits per year, this small-time shill thinks traffic is “crazy” at 330, most of whom no doubt checked it out just to see the car wreck, as I did.

#110 Mic D'angelo on 01.14.13 at 3:22 am

Garth, just heard Japan’s government Abe is looking to but at least 558 billion U.S.$ of U.S. treasuries. Some say it could be double this amount. This will keep U.S. treasury bond yields low or from keep rising much in 2013 etc. The U.S. Federal Reserve has a new partner in crime. You will see in 2013.

#111 someone that i know on 01.14.13 at 3:26 am

Who is “Bryan bauemler”? What? Why should I know some HGTV guy? Reading this blog and watching HGTV…

September, it was 1795K
http://www.hgtv.ca/blog/for-sale-the-real-house-of-bryan/

now 1595K
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12327305&PidKey=-1113452154

I am sure they would take your 1400K offer now, but probably wait 2014 and pay less.
So this guy:
1) has tried to find a greater fool and failed.
2) surely knows market will crash soon and dropped 200K in a few months,
3) is a liar for not broadcasting this fact on TV.

That house should never be more than 1M even another fool is found.

#112 Jane24 on 01.14.13 at 3:47 am

Old Mississauga will fold due to all the boomers living there. Whole neighbourhoods of similar aged folk with big lawns to cut and big drives to shovel. Big utility bills too.

The next generation down either cannot afford these homes or are too risk adverse to buy them.

Too many sellers, not enough buyers – down they go.

#113 Devore on 01.14.13 at 4:04 am

#88 martin9999

Everyone has forgotton about the debt ceiling issue.
to much confidence in the markets.

The debt ceiling that will be raised after some fussing in Washington? Only thing too much of is people expecting another 2008.

#114 Mic D'angelo on 01.14.13 at 5:32 am

Correction #101 to buy not to but at least 558 billion U.S.$ U.S. treasuries.

#115 Longterm on 01.14.13 at 7:41 am

#35 TRT on 01.13.13 at 7:35 pm

The reason is that incomes aren’t distributed evenly across all cities and regions nor is desirability. In Van for examples, the average income in Shaughnessy is many times the average income in say the suburban broder areas with Burnaby. So income to price ratios vary dramatically. Likewise, with desirability, you have say Kitsilano on the beach and Marpole, that sad south Van community down near the Fraser River. Kits will always be more desirable than Marpole so it will always sustain higher prices. Thus across Van, while you have average incomes and average price to income ratios and average rent to price ratios, within sub-regions/communities these are not average. So Kits houses might drop only 5, 10 or 15% while Marpole houses might well shave 15, 20, 30%, condos possibly even more. This situation plays out across Canada in every town and city and region. Think about where you live and the desirability of communities and where the money is located. It will be the same. So it’s never different, just highly variable. Rich desirable areas [nice houses, wide lots, views, green spavce, proximity to ammentities, good schools, etc] will always be rich desirable areas even if they lose 25%. Crap undesirable areas [distant suburbs, overlooking industrial areas, crack houses, whatever makes it undesirable in your area] where people bought because they couldn’t afford nicer areas will always be ‘crap.’ But these areas will experience a greater corresponding drop because they received a greater than average increase in prices by the money that flowed in from people who couldnt’ afford elsewhere but desperately wanted to buy and who thought Marpole would become Kits. Much pain will follow.

#116 Buy? Curious? on 01.14.13 at 7:57 am

I don’t know why people are hating on Brad Lamb and Sherry Cooper. They’re sales people. Their job is to get you to give them your money. Is it fair? Of course not! So don’t buy. If you did buy, start educating yourself as to how to correct the problem, cut down on expenses and in the name of Allah (pbuh for anyone worried I was mocking her) listen to Garth Turner! Go research his strategies! Crunch the numbers! Make a budget that allows you to generate more money than you’re spending! But please, don’t whine about your situation or complain that it’s not your fault for being stupid.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtFGrzRq–U

#117 Mr. Lahey on 01.14.13 at 8:48 am

#29 Expresso Bob

“Hopefully dr. “payne” has left the building! But don’t count on it!”

Now, now Bob. I think it is rather fun to have the king of the a$$sholes, “Dr.” Wayne with us. How else will the rest of get to see a Pavlonian a$$shole in action every day?

#118 AK on 01.14.13 at 8:55 am

#21 Picasso on 01.13.13 at 6:13 pm

“Standby for another correction and then buy? That is what recent experience suggests is the wisest course of action, and expect the unexpected, this could be a much bigger correction than anything seen in the past three years, remember 2008?”

LMFAO.. Dude, 2008 will not happen ever again.

You should stop reading useless propaganda.. :-)

#119 Mak on 01.14.13 at 9:01 am

On a different note.

I read a report that this ETF “iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction(ITB)” has given 78% returns in one year.

Should I buy into this one? Any opinions?

#120 AK on 01.14.13 at 9:02 am

#109 Tony on 01.14.13 at 2:13 am

“The same thing will happen that happened in the crash of’29 everyone except the short sellers will be wiped out including the holders of gold and silver.”

Indeed. People will stop eating, stop working, stop buying cars, stop travelling.

Keep shorting.

#121 Rishu on 01.14.13 at 9:17 am

Re: #113 Jane24

Old Mississauga will fold due to all the boomers living there. Whole neighbourhoods of similar aged folk with big lawns to cut and big drives to shovel. Big utility bills too.

The next generation down either cannot afford these homes or are too risk adverse to buy them.

Too many sellers, not enough buyers – down they go.

==============

My generation would first need jobs before we can even consider buying these houses. Funny thing is, we are one of the most educated (maybe not smartest since we all fell for the post-secondary education hype…) in human history. Macleans wrote several pieces on us being the “Lost Generation”.

And the sad thing is that Baby Boomers have the nerve to call us spoilt and entitled! What’s wrong with having the dream of being middle class like our parents and grand-parents? That’s right, MIDDLE CLASS! Is it too much to ask to want a spouse, home, car and a couple of kids?

But those are all luxury items now, and we are told we shouldn’t feel entitled to it…

Life goes on; we will continue to hang our $40-70k piece of paper in our parent’s basement. And pay off the debt working at retail and restaurants till our late 20s and early 30s.

Starting a family? You wish, that’s a luxury item didn’t you know? You should not be entitled to wanting to start your own family…

Do I sound bitter and mad? You bet’cha!

I really feel bad for my generation and wished they spent some time to become financially literate. Finance 101; a course not offered in High School or Post-Secondary education. Perhaps they would have enjoyed some relative success had they like I have.

http://rishu.ca/post/25227504262/condo-car-and-no-student-debt-at-23

– Rishu

#122 TurnerNation on 01.14.13 at 9:19 am

New 15 foot wide Toronto semi in favoured nouveaux riche Wasp area for 1 mill.

Parking: essentially rented at $125/mo.

Who wants to be a millionaire?

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12726160&PidKey=1174804576

“End Townhome At Trinity Bellwoods. Wide Floorplan On Semi-Detached 15 Foot Lot. Move In This Spring, As Construction Is Almost Completed! 2100 Sf Of Contemporary Living Space With Interiors By Cecconi Simone. 3 Bedroom Plan, With Master On 3rd Floor. Premium Finishes Throughout, Direct Access Parking, 10 Foot Ceilings On Main Floor, Private Rear Garden Of Almost 18′ In Width. Located On Manning, With Stunning City Skyline Views From Master Bedroom Floor. **** EXTRAS **** A Unique Urban Home. Tarion Registered, Parking Is Subject To $125 Per Month Fee. All Appliances Included, Upgraded Glass Staircase Also Included. “

#123 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.14.13 at 9:29 am

#51Devore on 01.13.13 at 8:49 pm
#5 bill

Marko will do fine, as he seems like a decent realtor. However, he is one in a long line on trolls trying to get a rise out of Garth (or just plain annoying him) by pretending to ask a legitimate question. None of them post to GF any more. Probably on their own, because trolling is hard thankless work if no one bites, not to mention not entertaining in the slightest if the desired response is not produced. This is why DA keeps disappearing.

Nah, I keep disappearing to cool off. It’s a ‘time out’ thing for me.

Now, more than two days since my last post, after logging onto this pathetic blog to catch up on all your comments, it occurs to me just how lunatic fringe this pathetic blog really is.

It’s kind of a spectacle really visiting this blog – something like going the zoo and watching the hyenas. I come back time and time again expecting something will have changed. Yet each and every day, for the last four plus years, it’s the ‘same old same old’ – a bunch of canines in a cage. (Hyenas are more closely related to cats than dogs BTW. But they exhibit ‘dog like’ traits).

“Hyenas are neither cats nor dogs. They belong to their own family, the Hyaenidae, which also includes the aardwolf. This family is more closely related to cats than to dogs. The order Carnivora, to which the cat, dog and hyena families all belong, is divided into two branches, the Feliformia (cat-like) families, and the Caniformia (dog-like) families. The Feliformia branch includes cats, hyenas, civets and genets, and mongooses, whilst the Caniformia branch includes dogs, weasels and relatives, bears, raccoons and relatives, seals and sealions. The resemblance of hyenas to dogs is due to convergent evolution – the process by which unrelated species evolve similar solutions to similar problems

… Interesting…

For the most part the Blog Dawgs are nothing more than boring doomers and gloomers. To spice things up every now and then I lob a bone over the glass which starts them to yipping, yapping and howling. So entertaining… but fleetingly so, as, so predictably, they miss the point most each and every time as their yipping, yapping and howling is directed at me, on the other side of the glass, as they press their snot dripping noses and salivating fanged jaws against the transparent barrier with nary a notice of the tender morsel I lobbed their way now laying, undetected, on the ground behind them.

Like the hyenas at the zoo, the Blog Dawgs are locked in a cage, forbidden from seeing what’s really going on outside. Unlike the hyenas though, ironically, theirs is a cage of their own fabrication, with imaginary walls and barriers that prohibits them from pursuing that which they seek.

If you have something to add to the conversation, say it. I will publish no more of your comments that simply ridicule and diminish those who disagree with you. — Garth

#124 Mark on 01.14.13 at 9:32 am

Absolutely wrong. There will be no uncontrolled or unwanted inflation, and certainly no hyper-inflation. Your metals will prove that. — Garth

How can this be Garth? What is inflation then? As for metals, we’ve had a pullback indeed, but gold went from $250 to $1675 in a decade. Why?

It just went from $1,900 to $1,600. Why? — Garth

#125 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.14.13 at 9:44 am

Addendum to my previous post:

Now, like Pavlov’s dog, I can mimic a throw with an empty hand and still garner the same reaction from them <cite<(The Blog Dawgs).

Hell no! I don’t have to go even that far. All I have to do is post any old thing and the mere sight of my moniker entices them!

#126 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.14.13 at 10:11 am

If you have something to add to the conversation, say it. I will publish no more of your comments that simply ridicule and diminish those who disagree with you. — Garth

I wish I could Garth. But the point of my previous posts was that, no matter what I offer, the Blog Dawgs hear only that which they want to hear and that most often is something quite different to that which I meant in my postings.

You know this, as you too are often forced endure much the same. Your reasoned thinking is too often amplified by the Blog Dawgs beyond all logic to foretell of some cataclysmic economic event that lays in wait on the horizon.

Many, I know, who read the comments section of your blog think you a more lunatic fringe radical than you really are as those more radical brethren followers amplify the Gospel of Garth to portray you as something we both know you are not. Unlike their condemnation of me though, theirs is more a compliment of you, the flattery of which you let sway you.

Now I know many will accuse my condescending manner for my not being taken seriously. It’s hard not to be susceptible to such interpretation in the absence of a face to face communication. Still each and every poster who discloses themselves as being from the ‘dark side’ receives much the same ridicule without consideration.

The Blog Dawgs don’t want information they want validation and you’re as close as they come to getting it. Unfortunately it is not near the flattery you think as they twist, infect and amplify your good word. Yet it is mine you would censure.

#127 Pr on 01.14.13 at 10:16 am

#128 Mark …
.It just went from $1,900 to $1,600. Why? — Garth

M.a.n.i.p.u.l.a.t.i.o.n.!

Some one(s) some where(s) buying at bargain price.

Juvenile. — Garth

#128 Herb on 01.14.13 at 10:40 am

We would love to see you rub that roundtable’s noses in it, but you will practice noblesse oblige, and those self-interested jerks have no shame anyway. Just promise us the occasional dig so we can gloat quietly with you.

#129 hangfire on 01.14.13 at 11:00 am

Perhaps we’re over analyzing the reasons for the real estate crash and forgetting that every business cycle will inevitably revert to the mean regardless of any bank economists pronouncements. That being a fact we should invariably see house prices at 50 to 70% lower than where they are today…….so look back before Greenspan began the great paper cycle and add nominal inflation…….its back to the future in that scenario for RE ‘values’…….we’ll be back to the year 2000 before we see a trough form.

As far as the recovery touted by hopeful democratic sycophants here in the US of A……that’s all crap….the pronouncements are purely political and have no basis in fact. Lets not forget the facts here…the ALT-A foreclosures haven’t peaked…shadow inventory is so high that the banks have stopped forclosure proceedings and left dizzy homeowners with years of back taxes they thought they’d left behind on zombie mortgages……don’t believe the press……in the media ..the truth lies with whichever network you watch….one extreme over at MSNBC that tries to cheerlead the Obama nonsense…and the other at FOX….and everything in between…..banks still aren’t lending…bottom line from my perch in Texas.

#130 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.14.13 at 11:09 am

OK then, how about this as something to add to the conversation.

So far this year(January 01 through January 13, 2013) There have been in the Central Okanagan 47 sales of single family residential units the average price of which has been $542,628. Compared to that the same period last year there were just 47 sales of single family homes the average price of which was $432,178.

Of course this is such a narrow window really means little one way or the other but certainly it is no indication that the Spring market is unfolding in any way shape or for as the Blog Dawgs have been predicting it would.

Bark away Dawgs…

On the other hand the condo market has reflected the other side of the thereby “balanced” market as;

So far this year(January 01 through January 13, 2013) There have been in the Central Okanagan 22 sales of strata titled residential units the average price of which has been $292,954. Compared to that the same period last year there were 29 sales of such strata titled homes the average price of which was relatively unchanged at $293,778.

What say ye Dawgs?

#131 maxx on 01.14.13 at 11:12 am

“In other words, five-year mortgages will cost more far in advance of the Bank of Canada starting to raise rates this October.”

Yes, in lockstep with spiraling carrying costs for home ownership. All levels of government are scurrying about furiously, looking for ever more creative ways to tax the public.

#132 bill on 01.14.13 at 11:18 am

#105 Derek R on 01.14.13 at 1:28 am
I have a bottle of A’bunadh [cask strength] for that very purpose.

Good call on the ‘Wee Timorous Beastie’ too.

#133 Canadian Watchdog on 01.14.13 at 11:25 am

Riddle: What does this chart and countries marked yellow on this graph have in common?

#134 syfon on 01.14.13 at 11:29 am

Inflation
deflation
inflation ect ect
I will give you simple example
If you will sit no your money and are fully montetized like the banks are right now it is deflationary, but
the moment you start spending that money and specialy borrowed or printed money that is inflationary.
Golds example 1900$ to 1600 $ is a wrong one to use
in financial word is called correction and you know it.
This is not gold blog why bother

#135 John Prine on 01.14.13 at 11:30 am

Was just looking around the “Movie Colony” neighbourhood in Palm Springs. Bob Hope’s first two homes here are for sale. One built in 1933 and the other in 1945. Both beautiful, the small one is 2200 sq. ft on a double lot, the other bigger with an amazing pool. Walking distance to the “strip” $459,000 and $659,000. When we see what $459,000 will buy in Victoria or Vancouver it really hits “home” how overvalued the Canadian market really is.

#136 refinow on 01.14.13 at 11:33 am

Brad lamb and Sherry Cooper, could go out and form a new Real Estate Co.

“Do as I say, not as I do” Realty.

I wonder if someone called them with a house to sell, do you think they would try to talk them out of selling because houses are “Still” going up in price?

#137 Smoking Man on 01.14.13 at 11:34 am

Financial Post Headline

Are stubborn sellers killing the real estate crash…..

When I read on, it’s everything I have been saying. It’s like all the economists come to GF looks for Smoking Man, re gurgitate with better English my anyalitics and ideas…..

Copy cats

#138 live within your means on 01.14.13 at 11:39 am

#107 GTA Girl on 01.14.13 at 1:39 am

They have a project at Bathurst and hwy 407. McMansions on small lots, w/architectural elements y designer-du-jour Gluckstein. Asking price? Starting price…$2million
………….

When I used to watch a lot of HGTV (after I retired), I loved Brian Gluckstein’s designs on the old Marilyn Dennis show – his home in TO & Florida. TOTALLY beyond our reach, but still got some good design tips.

Now, if only I could find a really good upholsterer in the Hfx area to redo a small 35 yr. small 3 seater sofa & chair that I bought in Mtl. It suits our small living room. Neighbour recommended one yrs. ago and he did a terrible job. I had to buy an upholster’s needle to fix stuff as well as replacing some cushion innerds, etc. Later she finally told me she wasn’t satisfied either. Was really PO’d but, she’s a super lady. I blame a lot on her ‘late’ husband.

#139 coastal on 01.14.13 at 11:42 am

“Enjoy your 15 seconds of fame, realtor. While Garth gets millions of hits per year, this small-time shill thinks traffic is “crazy” at 330, most of whom no doubt checked it out just to see the car wreck, as I did.”

Agreed. Garth’s smackdown proves once and for all what we were all reading was not good natured debate but a pathetic attempt to self promote while bashing Garth on another blog. The sad part is he is clueless he is embarrassing himself and the other Victoria agents which for the most part show business class and professionalism, regardless of their viewpoints on the markets’ direction.

What other agent boasts openly of his few web page hits along with his stock trading prowess while trying to convince people he is the “new wave” ? Seems the equivalent of a sleazy used car salesman to me with those low ball tactics.

#140 Tony on 01.14.13 at 11:59 am

Re: #128 Mark on 01.14.13 at 9:32 am

Sheer stupidity one imbecile buying for all the wrong reasons one after another. Just like the tulip bulb craze of mass insanity this will end the same with gold dropping back to two hundred dollars an ounce U.S. in due time.

#141 ComicSans on 01.14.13 at 12:04 pm

Good column. Truth be told.

#142 Edmonton to Halifax on 01.14.13 at 12:11 pm

I totally agree with #117 on Halifax. I am renting and have no intention of buying (I am in the military and I am only here for a short time). That being said, if I was planning on staying here for the long term, I wouldn’t even consider purchasing. In relative terms, I am sure that the number of condos under construction would be quite shocking when compared to the actual population of this place. This place is eager to be Toronto Jr. or something. In addition, this is one ridiculously expensive place to live……beautiful but expensive.

#143 DR. WAYNE on 01.14.13 at 12:18 pm

#120 Mr. Lahey on 01.14.13 at 8:48 am

=============

Now, now “Mr.” Lahey (I see you changed your moniker, hoping, I suspect, to garner more respect … too bad), I wouldn’t speak to harshly about ‘Pavlovian’ responses, given that the mere ‘sight’ of my name automatically causes you all to let the fingers do the walking and respond mindlessly.

#144 live within your means on 01.14.13 at 12:30 pm

#125 Rishu on 01.14.13 at 9:17 am

My generation would first need jobs before we can even consider buying these houses. Funny thing is, we are one of the most educated (maybe not smartest since we all fell for the post-secondary education hype…) in human history. Macleans wrote several pieces on us being the “Lost Generation”.

And the sad thing is that Baby Boomers have the nerve to call us spoilt and entitled! What’s wrong with having the dream of being middle class like our parents and grand-parents? That’s right, MIDDLE CLASS! Is it too much to ask to want a spouse, home, car and a couple of kids?

But those are all luxury items now, and we are told we shouldn’t feel entitled to it…

Life goes on; we will continue to hang our $40-70k piece of paper in our parent’s basement. And pay off the debt working at retail and restaurants till our late 20s and early 30s.

Starting a family? You wish, that’s a luxury item didn’t you know? You should not be entitled to wanting to start your own family…

Do I sound bitter and mad? You bet’cha!

I really feel bad for my generation and wished they spent some time to become financially literate. Finance 101; a course not offered in High School or Post-Secondary education. Perhaps they would have enjoyed some relative success had they like I have.

http://rishu.ca/post/25227504262/condo-car-and-no-student-debt-at-23

– Rishu
………………

Rishu

I grew up in the 50’s in a wartime house – rented for $37 a mo. – 1 bathroom, 6 kids (we shared the bathtub water Sat. eve. – LOL). Dad worked for Cdn Arsenals off the island of Mtl. Mom was a full time Mom. For we kids, life was simple, but in our eyes it was great, for the time.

Dad lost his job (after a major heart attack), we had to move to Mtl. east in an apt. My Mom had to go back to work. In grade 8 I went every day after school – took 2/3 buses – to babysit a little boy whose Mom was breast feeding her little girl. (They were a fantastic couple.) He’d drive me home after. On Thurs, Frids. eves & all day Saturdays, I & a sister, worked for minimum wage, at Dept. stores downtown. We did it because we had to. It was not uncommon at the time. So many of my ‘refugee g’friends’ did the same. Are today’s kids willing to do the same??? If not, I blame parents & social media/internet. IMHO, today’s kids are really spoiled – I see it with my neighbours/friends/relatives’ children.

#145 live within your means on 01.14.13 at 12:44 pm

#146 Edmonton to Halifax on 01.14.13 at 12:11 pm
I totally agree with #117 on Halifax. I am renting and have no intention of buying (I am in the military and I am only here for a short time). That being said, if I was planning on staying here for the long term, I wouldn’t even consider purchasing. In relative terms, I am sure that the number of condos under construction would be quite shocking when compared to the actual population of this place. This place is eager to be Toronto Jr. or something. In addition, this is one ridiculously expensive place to live……beautiful but expensive.
…………………………..

There’s a home behind us that is rented out to a military young couple. Believe a student’s father bought it several years ago while his son attended Dal. Had it on the market for a few years but asked too much. They did a few renos & finally rented it a yr. or so ago. But, if our back patio door is open, at times we can hear that young couple screaming at each other. Wonder how long that relationship will last!! BTW, we’ve a large backyard.

#146 Highend RE Market on 01.14.13 at 12:44 pm

can we trust this view from sothebys???
Isnt the house correction should start at the highend market first??

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/01/10/business-sothebys-housing.html

#147 Form Man on 01.14.13 at 12:47 pm

#131 DA

There is no rebound imminent in the Kelowna housing market. In fact, there appears to be another ‘downleg’ underway in home prices. You are proving yourself to be hopelessly deluded. Wait and see what rising mortgage rates do to home prices over the next couple of years.
Honestly, watching your panicked, crazed, rantings is worrying……….you really don’t have a clue, do you…………..?

#148 IM in C on 01.14.13 at 12:55 pm

@148 living within your means
It was adifferent time then for sure. Today, the family situation you describe would have your mother being hounded and harrassed by 5 different social agencys, the police and ‘well meaning’ school officials. Oh, and your school mates were , for the most part , in the same boat. In those days , everyone minded their own business. If you were trying to live like that today, you would find yourself taunted and bul,lied by your class mates.

#149 Inglorious Investor on 01.14.13 at 12:57 pm

Bronco Bama tries to scare the crap out of vulnerable Americans by saying that if the US is not allowed to keep increasing its debt forever, social security checks will not be sent out, soldiers will not be paid, mortgage rates will spike, and the economy will crumble into a smouldering heap of ash.

He frames the discussion as “America must pay its bills.” That’s right. But who cares if they do so with worthless money? Certainly not the government. But pensioners, soldiers and others might.

Bronco Bama: “America is not a deadbeat nation. And we are perfectly willing to counterfeit as much money as necessary to prove it.”

#150 Frank le skank on 01.14.13 at 1:05 pm

#130 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 01.14.13 at 10:11 am
– you have very little to offer
– no one knows what you mean
– what Garth endures is completely different that you, self-pity gets you nowhere
– your condemnation is due to your misleading ways, not for being condescending
– the world consist of more than the Okanagan
– take a few courses on economics in the spring
– consider this a lesson in humility and move on

#151 Snowboid on 01.14.13 at 1:06 pm

Central Okanagan real estate stats 2013 to date?

Nice thing about averages is that one expensive property can make your ‘stats’ look great.

For example, in the first week of 2013, one sale out of 67 accounted for 10.5 % of total sales values – a property which sold for $ 3.1 million. This home was on the market for 412 days and sold for 20% below list.

The second week of 2013 had for its’ highest sales price a home which sold for $ 890K after being on the market for 461 days. It was one of 36 sold, accounting for about 7% of total sales values.

So, although I don’t have the actual dollar values for SFHs alone, it would be fair to say the $ 3.1 million dollar property significantly skewed the average figures.

Methinks not a great predictor of a revived Kelowna spring!

#152 Gypsy Kid on 01.14.13 at 1:13 pm

Live within your means, I completely agree with you that today’s kids are spoilt – rotten, sometimes. But it’s also true that even uni grads cant find retail jobs.
Nonetheless, we are truly living in a material world now and parents feel they have to equip their kids with all the latest gadgets. So sad…our kids are brainwashed at a young age.

#153 a prairie dawg on 01.14.13 at 1:15 pm

#101 Gordon Lighfoot

Any requests for a song about a FQQQ’d ship?

– – –

You gave me an idea. And I’m afraid the cold medication kind of took it from there. :|

Well the legend lives on, from the Chippewa on down, to the big blog they call Greater Foolee.

And the blog it is said, never gives up it’s dead, when the cries of the real_tors turn gloomy.

With a load of irony or, twenty six thousand tons of ethic more, than the real estate cartel weighed empty.

That good blog and true, was a bone to be chewed, when the wails from the real_tors came early.

The blog was the pride of the Canadian side, as Garth came back from some meet in Toronto.

As the blog spaces go, it was bigger than most, with a crew and good captain well seasoned.

Concluding some terms with RE economists, the worms, then they left fully loaded for Dreamland.

And later that night when they knew Garth was right, could it be shiftin’ winds they’d been feelin’?

The wind in the media wires made a tattle-tale sound, and a wave of those real_tors were reelin’.

And the blog dogs all knew, as the Captain did too, ’twas the witch of this gas bag deflatin’…

– – –

OK, I’ve butchered it enough.

PS,
My apologies to Gordon Lightfoot, the crew of the Edmund Fitzgerald and their relatives, and also the Chippewa people. And anyone else*, who could possibly be offended.

*excluding real_tors or economists

#154 coastal on 01.14.13 at 1:16 pm

“When we see what $459,000 will buy in Victoria or Vancouver it really hits “home” how overvalued the Canadian market really is.”

How true that is, Canadians have been milked by a real estate/media machine like a classic ponzi scheme. I guess when you have to keep up the Jonse’es in the US but forgot this isn’t reality, then this is what you get. $459K gets you a crap shack in a dodgy neighborhood in Victoria in need of a $100K reno just to get the mold out. Totally delusional but prices are “solid” says the agent.

#155 Inglorious Investor on 01.14.13 at 1:22 pm

#109 Tony on 01.14.13 at 2:13 am

“The same thing will happen that happened in the crash of’29 everyone except the short sellers will be wiped out including the holders of gold and silver.”

In 1933 the US devalued the dollar by about 40% virtually overnight by raising the fixed price of gold from about $21/oz to $35/oz. But before they changed the price, they confiscated Americans’ monetary gold by forcing them to sell it to the Treasury at the old price of $21. So I suppose the trick was to have purchased a lot of gold jewelry before the confiscation.

Today they don’t need to manipulate the gold price to devalue the currency. All they need to do is have the Fed create as much currency units as they want.

Trillion dollar coins, anyone?

#156 coastal on 01.14.13 at 1:27 pm

“Marko and the rest of the zombie realtors on the Victoria blog are frothing at the mouth in that sad, empty place. It reminds me of those forgotten, pre-blog 90s “forums”.”

#111 Ogopogo

The blog owner left Victoria and bought elsewhere in BC or Canada and the current webmaster/moderator just recently put in an offer on a house then pulled it the same or next day. What kind of unbiased info are you going to get on a blog that are heavily bulls/owners/anal landlords or wannabe buyers sitting on the fence ? Not to mention the total lack of sense of humor,except from a couple of them, thought I was reading the Mensa club of Victoria, lol.

#157 TEMPLE on 01.14.13 at 1:34 pm

#134 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 01.14.13 at 11:09 am

Of course this is such a narrow window really means little one way or the other but certainly it is no indication that the Spring market is unfolding in any way shape or for as the Blog Dawgs have been predicting it would.

So, it means little one way or another, except when you use it to support your argument?

Also, it’s still January. Not spring.

TEMPLE

#158 EIT on 01.14.13 at 1:39 pm

Peter Schiff explains how Government plays with their numbers. (Garth is in denial).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=pwI3Nya5L9g#!

#159 Snowboid on 01.14.13 at 1:43 pm

#159 coastal on 01.14.13 at 1:16 pm…

Here is what $ 459K will buy near our AZ home…

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/8042-W-Electra-Ln_Peoria_AZ_85383_M12985-40437
or
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/12443-W-Rosewood-Ln_Peoria_AZ_85383_M11518-01676

…keeping in mind this pricing is about 20% higher than Dec 2010!

BTW, these prices are substantially less than we sold our ‘average’ Victoria home for in April 2011!

Also, thank you Canadian Arctic air, for making the trek south and cooling Phoenix enough to remind us Snowboids of our former winters!

#160 Andrew on 01.14.13 at 1:53 pm

DABob,

Nope, your latest posts aren’t going to do it, have to inform you that your personal credibility rating is still in the dumper.

By the way how many of the 47 SFH and 22 Condo sales so far in the Central Okanagan are notches on your belt?

#161 Canadian Watchdog on 01.14.13 at 2:09 pm

#134 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate, #151 Form Man

Do you know what else MOI represents?

Central Okanagan Statistics – December 2012

Residential Sales 80
Current Inventory 1,173
MOI 14.6
Average Price $464,283

80 x $464,283 = $37,142,640 sales dollar volume (total bid)

1,173 x $464,283 = $544,603,959 inventory dollar volume (total ask)

$544,603,959/$37,142,640 = 14.6.

MOI also means for every $14.60, there is a $1 bid or:

$37,142,640/$544,603,959 = $6.80 bid for every $100 ask.

#162 Inglorious Investor on 01.14.13 at 2:15 pm

#162 EIT on 01.14.13 at 1:39 pm
“Peter Schiff explains how Government plays with their numbers.”

Peter Schiff is bang on the money. One of the few who actually gets it. Pay attention.

#163 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.14.13 at 2:39 pm

#162 TEMPLE on 01.14.13 at 1:34 pm

and Form Man @ #151, Frank le skank @ #155, Snowboid @ #156 and Andrew @ #165.

Nah… Why would I waste my time? But, hey, thank you so much for affirming my claim at #130.

#164 John Prine on 01.14.13 at 2:40 pm

http://www.zillow.com/blog/files/2012/12/Hope-One-1-574×430.jpg

#165 John Prine on 01.14.13 at 2:42 pm

Sorry, last post picture is of Bob Hope’s home for sale for $459,000. Built 1937, 2,100 sq. ft. 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, double lot in “Movie Colony” Palm Springs

#166 sciencemonkey on 01.14.13 at 2:43 pm

@107 GTA Girl: I know that area, my parents bought a 3000 sqft McMansion in the development northwest of the intersection back in 2002, probably for something in the $400k range. (Ah to be boomers, with government pensions to boot!) One of the things that was attractive to them at the time was the space of the wooded areas and golf course nearby. Where are these new houses being built?

One thing I haven’t really seen discussed is how continuing development lowers the current residents’ options to find green/open space. One example might be a child growing up in Brampton and seeing the forest she used to bicycle through converted into more houses. Another might be a condo owner having their view downtown ruined by another nearby condo tower.

#167 Frank le skank on 01.14.13 at 2:56 pm

#168 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 01.14.13 at 2:39 pm
You would waste your (and our) time because you have nothing else to do.

#168 neo on 01.14.13 at 3:00 pm

#124skeptical on 01.14.13 at 9:02 am
#111 Mic D’angelo on 01.14.13 at 3:22 am
________________________________________

don’t pay attention to these guys on the blog. the central banks of Japan, US, Europe, UK and Switzerland have printed trillions of dollars since 2008. they will continue to print trillions.

this is nothing but massively inflationary.

Absolutely wrong. There will be no uncontrolled or unwanted inflation, and certainly no hyper-inflation. Your metals will prove that. — Garth

*******************************************

Those trillions went to fill a deflationary sinkhole so don’t expect inflation. The real tell is the lack of inflation and REAL global growth since printing in 2008. That is something Garth downplays or flat out cheerleads when he should know better. If you have printing/deficits that are 4-6 larger than they were in the 90’s and achieving half the growth there is a problem. Governments don’t produce wealth, they distribute it from those that do. That’s why a true recovery has yet to take place regardless of Garth’s musings.

#169 Mr. Lahey on 01.14.13 at 3:02 pm

#147 Dr. Wayne

“Now, now “Mr.” Lahey (I see you changed your moniker, hoping, I suspect, to garner more respect … too bad), I wouldn’t speak to harshly about ‘Pavlovian’ responses, given that the mere ‘sight’ of my name automatically causes you all to let the fingers do the walking and respond mindlessly.”

The other way around Doc. I have been Mr. Lahey since coming to this blog in 09. I changed it to Jim in my first posts to you. As to responding mindlessly, your Pavlovian responses are just that. Your only contribution to this blog has only been to denigrate others.

#170 coastal on 01.14.13 at 3:09 pm

#164 Snowboid,

Excellent examples, triple the living space, modern and a pool to boot. BC is so delusional, as only one in that state can accept today’s prices are going to be the norm moving forward. The defence of this scam from all sides of those with the most to lose is heating up and it’s still the middle of January, what does that tell you. Many are sweating bullets.

#171 neo on 01.14.13 at 3:12 pm

At #148live within your means on 01.14.13 at 12:30 pm
#125 Rishu on 01.14.13 at 9:17 am

My generation would first need jobs before we can even consider buying these houses. Funny thing is, we are one of the most educated (maybe not smartest since we all fell for the post-secondary education hype…) in human history. Macleans wrote several pieces on us being the “Lost Generation”.

And the sad thing is that Baby Boomers have the nerve to call us spoilt and entitled! What’s wrong with having the dream of being middle class like our parents and grand-parents? That’s right, MIDDLE CLASS! Is it too much to ask to want a spouse, home, car and a couple of kids?

But those are all luxury items now, and we are told we shouldn’t feel entitled to it…

Life goes on; we will continue to hang our $40-70k piece of paper in our parent’s basement. And pay off the debt working at retail and restaurants till our late 20s and early 30s.

Starting a family? You wish, that’s a luxury item didn’t you know? You should not be entitled to wanting to start your own family…

Do I sound bitter and mad? You bet’cha!

I really feel bad for my generation and wished they spent some time to become financially literate. Finance 101; a course not offered in High School or Post-Secondary education. Perhaps they would have enjoyed some relative success had they like I have.

http://rishu.ca/post/25227504262/condo-car-and-no-student-debt-at-23

– Rishu
………………

Rishu

I grew up in the 50′s in a wartime house – rented for $37 a mo. – 1 bathroom, 6 kids (we shared the bathtub water Sat. eve. – LOL). Dad worked for Cdn Arsenals off the island of Mtl. Mom was a full time Mom. For we kids, life was simple, but in our eyes it was great, for the time.

Dad lost his job (after a major heart attack), we had to move to Mtl. east in an apt. My Mom had to go back to work. In grade 8 I went every day after school – took 2/3 buses – to babysit a little boy whose Mom was breast feeding her little girl. (They were a fantastic couple.) He’d drive me home after. On Thurs, Frids. eves & all day Saturdays, I & a sister, worked for minimum wage, at Dept. stores downtown. We did it because we had to. It was not uncommon at the time. So many of my ‘refugee g’friends’ did the same. Are today’s kids willing to do the same??? If not, I blame parents & social media/internet. IMHO, today’s kids are really spoiled – I see it with my neighbours/friends/relatives’ children.

********************************************

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QM0dbwDc2FE&feature=player_embedded

#172 bill on 01.14.13 at 3:14 pm

DA moaning and weeping, yet again -”Yet it is mine you would censure.” he wails…how can this be he/she/it asks?
well you are verbose ,boring, repetitive, and wrong. excellent reasons for censure.
leave already!

#173 Andrew on 01.14.13 at 3:32 pm

DABob,

“I wish I could Garth. But the point of my previous posts was that, no matter what I offer, the Blog Dawgs hear only that which they want to hear…”

Not true DABob, we’ve been listening very carefully to your points in previous posts and they have been resoundingly rejected as Realtor Salespeak nut job nonsense.

The best part is how Realtors claim to have the TRUTH about the market, when their TRUTH is only pumped up, regurgitated industry generated stats that remarkably support the real estate market while ignoring every other economic indicator that says otherwise.

How ’bout some original, raw real estate stats that indicate how YOU personally are doing, it’s called Sales Numbers. We can track YOUR sales and you can show us how GREAT you are rather than just RANTING about it all the time.

Until then, Credibility Rating:

Less than Zilch

#174 Doug in London on 01.14.13 at 3:50 pm

@Rishu #125 and live within your means #148:
Yes, I have seen many spoiled kids in their twenties who feel it’s beneath their dignity to do things my generation (52 years old) have done like buying used stuff at yard sales, fishing usable stuff out of the garbage, fixing stuff ourselves, or budget travel. They would rather throw money at the problem, and can’t understand why we don’t. However many people of this generation are facing troubles far worse than we did, like graduating with back breaking debt and coming to a poor job market. I partly understand why they resent us, they had to pay higher tuition (less subsidized) so we wouldn’t have big tax increases and thus could buy monster homes and SUV’s.

There was a good article about this subject in the Globe and Mail by Rob Carrick recently. We supposedly had all these breaks, while the younger people are coming into an outrageously high priced housing market. The tide will turn when many of these Boomers want to sell their houses, and the younger buyers can’t afford or refuse to pay the high asking prices. They will respond by saying: try selling your house, old timer! What goes around comes around.

#175 EIT on 01.14.13 at 4:25 pm

I’m putting a new song together, it goes like this:

Can’t trust the government, cause
they’re morons,
just like us

I need someone musically inclined to run with this.

#176 Dorothy on 01.14.13 at 4:29 pm

Over the course of my adult life I’ve seen financial booms, and financial busts. And the world has kept turning. Real Estate prices have risen, and real estate prices have fallen. And the world has kept turning.
The point being that periods of ups and downs are a normal part of living; what goes up must come down, and vice versa.
Those who live within their means, don’t overextend themselves, and have a little put by for a rainy day, will always survive through the down times. The rest deserve what they get.
The world as we know it isn’t coming to an end folks. It’s simply time for the irresponsible amongst us to pay the piper (and hopefully learn a lesson at the same time).

#177 Old Man on 01.14.13 at 4:31 pm

#179 Doug in London – you have made some good points, as feel the discrimination from the younger people to get even, or blaming the boomers for all their woes. My tuition costs amounted to about $530 per year as an undergraduate, and higher in grad school, but that was a lot of money back then. I still look day and night for bargains, as my dad lived through the great depression, and he became very successful in life, but his motto was: ” A dollar is a lot of money, if you don’t have one.”

#178 Canadian Watchdog on 01.14.13 at 4:46 pm

Here we go…

Essar Steel seeks pension relief from province

Essar Steel Algoma Inc. said Friday that the Ontario government is allowing the company to defer special pension payments for 12 months.

Effective December 2012 until November 2013, the steel manufacturer will be allowed to defer the required payments. The company said it will continue to pay ongoing pension service costs for its DB pension plans during the year.

Low interest rates, combined with the decline in steel prices, increased borrowing costs and a one-time operational issue, led it to seek help from the province.

#179 live within your means on 01.14.13 at 4:47 pm

#153 IM in C on 01.14.13 at 12:55 pm
@148 living within your means
It was adifferent time then for sure. Today, the family situation you describe would have your mother being hounded and harrassed by 5 different social agencys, the police and ‘well meaning’ school officials. Oh, and your school mates were , for the most part , in the same boat. In those days , everyone minded their own business. If you were trying to live like that today, you would find yourself taunted and bul,lied by your class mates.
………………..
You’re exaggerating. I did have a few HS rich kid friends who made fun of me one time for making slacks from my eldest bro’s pants. That was hurtful. I got over it. Maybe we were tougher then. I have no recollection of ever being bullied in school the way kids are today.

#180 live within your means on 01.14.13 at 5:16 pm

@Rishu #125 and live within your means #148:

I & my eldest sister have also been guilty of spoiling our nieces & nephews over the years – B’day & Xmas gifts. Neither of us have any children. Hubby & I cut off 1 of his youngest brother’s daughters years ago. May happen with others. Know my eldest sis is totally disgusted w/ her husband’s kids from his 1st marriage.

#181 Investx on 01.14.13 at 5:18 pm

163 EIT:
Peter Schiff explains how Government plays with their numbers. (Garth is in denial).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=pwI3Nya5L9g#!
————————————

Good video. Thanks for sharing.

#182 Snowboid on 01.14.13 at 5:18 pm

#175 coastal on 01.14.13 at 3:09 pm…

We have a couple former neighbours in Victoria that aren’t communicating with us anymore – only because we believed the Professors’ advice and sold in the spring of 2011.

We listed at a lower price to comparables (such as our neighbours) and sold within ten days. Of the comparables, only one has subsequently sold (at much less than our net proceeds), leaving five taken off the market.

Of those five we know two of them are badly underwater. These are the same two that lambasted us for our low listing price, even after we explained our reasoning.

We can’t figure out why they don’t talk to us anymore!

#183 jess on 01.14.13 at 5:18 pm

“I’m kinda’ missing the ol’ fiscal cliff.”

story has an enticing paradox

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/tax-haven-reputation-plagues-eu-bailout-of-cyprus-a-877369.html

=================
Basel III: The Liquidity Coverage Ratio and liquidity risk monitoring tools
January 2013
http://www.bis.org/press/p130106a.pdf

#184 Snowboid on 01.14.13 at 5:20 pm

#178 Andrew on 01.14.13 at 3:32 pm…

Methinks Sales Numbers:

Less than Zilch

#185 Canadian Watchdog on 01.14.13 at 5:22 pm

Low interest rates, combined with the decline in steel prices, increased borrowing costs and a one-time operational issue, led it to seek help from the province.

Oh that’s just the beginning Garth. You expect to see a lot more these coming years.

Underfunded pension plans could soon emerge as a major public policy issue

Someone has to go broke in every ponzi scheme, and it won’t be the Government, at least not yet.

#186 The Karma Police on 01.14.13 at 5:26 pm

RE: 47 houses sold in Okanagan

What say ye Dawgs?

47 people just bought something that will be worth less in 2014, even less in 2015 and also cost more to finance.

In what context does this qualify as good news?

Deprogramming yourself from the realtor programming will be tough, but is it possible.

#187 richmond bc on 01.14.13 at 5:27 pm

Has anyone seen “Love it or List it Vancouver” on HGTV? It was a Vancouver based home search/home reno show. Since I live in the Lower Mainland, I was used to prices over $1 million. But I wonder if other viewers had their mouths opened with astonishment. At first they showed the beach (maybe Spanish Banks by UBC) to reflect the wonderful neighbourhood they lived in, then the subject home (maybe Vancouver Eastside). The 2 areas are east and west. In order to find a comp, the realtor went soooo far away I couldn’t even recognize the area. I’m guessing he dragged the pregnant woman out to…Squamish or Whistler? I laughed so hard. It really brought home how totally whacked-out-on-crack Vancouver Real Estate has become. Everything was over $1.3 million.

#188 live within your means on 01.14.13 at 5:34 pm

#179 Doug in London on 01.14.13 at 3:50 pm
@Rishu #125 and live within your means #148:
Yes, I have seen many spoiled kids in their twenties who feel it’s beneath their dignity to do things my generation (52 years old) have done like buying used stuff at yard sales, fishing usable stuff out of the garbage, fixing stuff ourselves, or budget travel. They would rather throw money at the problem, and can’t understand why we don’t. However many people of this generation are facing troubles far worse than we did, like graduating with back breaking debt and coming to a poor job market. I partly understand why they resent us, they had to pay higher tuition (less subsidized) so we wouldn’t have big tax increases and thus could buy monster homes and SUV’s.

There was a good article about this subject in the Globe and Mail by Rob Carrick recently. We supposedly had all these breaks, while the younger people are coming into an outrageously high priced housing market. The tide will turn when many of these Boomers want to sell their houses, and the younger buyers can’t afford or refuse to pay the high asking prices. They will respond by saying: try selling your house, old timer! What goes around comes around.

……………

Doug in London

When I & hubby owned our previous home & renovated our kitchen we actually ‘dumpster dived’ at Ikea. We got permission beforehand. I was a lot younger then!!! Our house sold because of the kitchen & other renos hubby did on the cheap.

Sorry, but I’m not really feeling sorry for my niece, or her Mom, who should have known better than to buy at the top of the market. We tried to tell them, but got the usual reply & you know what it is.

#189 Smoking Man on 01.14.13 at 5:35 pm

Poll In today’s Toronto Sun

Do you expect rates to rise this year

P=precent

7p yes
32p too early to say
70p no rates will stay low a long time.
1p not sure.

Come on spring market……….

#190 espressobob on 01.14.13 at 5:38 pm

#109 Tony

We just had a major crash 08, 09. But I do like your view on gold & silver.

And whats wrong with those soup lines serving up some delicious stale bread and grool?

#191 Vamanos Pest on 01.14.13 at 5:44 pm

A lot of blame within the above comments. (baby boomers screwed the next generation, young generation is spoiled, blah blah). Blame is irrelevant. The state of affairs is what it is. Recognized it for what it is, don’t judge it as good or bad, just position yourself to profit.

Period.

#192 AACI Okanagan on 01.14.13 at 5:57 pm

#178 Andrew on 01.14.13 at 3:32 pm

The best part is how Realtors claim to have the TRUTH about the market, when their TRUTH is only pumped up, regurgitated industry generated stats that remarkably support the real estate market while ignoring every other economic indicator that says otherwise.
————————————————–
Realtors sell the market, that is all they do.. they are a vacant lot

#193 espressobob on 01.14.13 at 6:10 pm

#181 Dorothy

Those are words to live by!

#194 Ozy - put your $ where the mouth is on 01.14.13 at 6:11 pm

A message for all blog dogs, to precipitate this downturn:

Put your $ where the mouth is, sell all your detached homes and move your kids, wife, mistresses for those who have, to the proudly canadian RENTAL appartment buildings, enjoy the native cockroaches, bed-bugs and timely-filled repair orders by all friendly stuff!
Or rent a condo or crapy under-repaired moldy old home.

Stop talking, start doing. The irony of all

#195 Nicorette Man on 01.14.13 at 6:23 pm

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
#141 Smoking Man on 01.14.13 at 11:34 am
Financial Post Headline

Are stubborn sellers killing the real estate crash…..

When I read on, it’s everything I have been saying. It’s like all the economists come to GF looks for Smoking Man, re gurgitate with better English my anyalitics and ideas…..

Copy cats
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

You deserve each other.
And you say you master the mechanics of the markets… well, like about everything else.
News for you, the ardent desire to be a Con does not make you anything else than a failed one.

#196 hangfire on 01.14.13 at 6:35 pm

DELETED

#197 DonDWest on 01.14.13 at 6:43 pm

#118 Longterm

We’ve been over this enough times already. Real estate bears don’t expect a massive crash that will allow us to buy Shaughnessy properties off 50k a year.

The turth of the matter is hoods such as Shaughnessy are not applicable to most of the people who populate this blog, whether they’re potential sellers or buyers.

#198 Doug in London on 01.14.13 at 6:48 pm

@Dorothy, post #181:
What you say is absolutely true. It appears you have a lot of something that doesn’t at all live up to its name, and that something is common sense.

#199 Andrew on 01.14.13 at 6:53 pm

Good Point AACI Okanagan and that is why DA cannot find any footing here-the market has just simply, gone bad.

#200 Devore on 01.14.13 at 7:19 pm

#156 Snowboid

Averages have a very upward bias, because while, like in your example, a single high value sale can skew the average way to the upside, there is never a case where the average is dragged down, ie, you can have a $10M sale, but there’s never a corresponding $10 sale to even things out. We saw this effect paying out in Vancouver westside last year where the average spiked due to an unusual number of very high dollar value sales.

That’s why we use a median, or a reliable index like Case-Schiller or Teranet. The HPI is ok… but it is a hedonic index like CPI, and comes with many biases of its own.

#201 -=jwk=- on 01.14.13 at 7:24 pm

@ ozy. we sold our 2bed condo and rented a house in centennial park area of Toronto/Etobicoke for less than the interest payments alone on a mortgage. $1500 in rent, about 650 to buy.

We weren’t really looking to move, but the offer on the condo was too good to refuse. We took the profit (135k) and bought two houses in Florida. We got our first rent payments in December. 12% after expenses, almost completely pays our rent up here.

So let’s recap: the gain on a 2bed condo when invested in foreign real estate pays the rent on a nice house in Toronto but would barely be 20% down payment on the same house.

yeah, Toronto is fine. No worries. Sheesh. Our (rental) house is worth 15-18 times annual rent. max. you do the math.

#202 Harvard Grad on 01.14.13 at 7:32 pm

Why the hate on for Brad Lamb – he’s a marketing genius! He can convince people to buy a 600sq.ft. cement box for $400K+ that is pure salesmanship.

I wish I had his kohonas – people lapping up everyword you say – buying in a frenzy – geez – this guy should go down as one of the best!

#203 coastal on 01.14.13 at 7:50 pm

#187 Snowboid, smart move selling. I don’t talk real estate with family or friends anymore, it’s not worth the grief. My main worry is some helicopter outlaws/inlaws trying to convince my daughter that buying is cheaper than renting and is completely oblivious to the words “negative equity” and the repercussions.

#204 Goldfinger on 01.14.13 at 8:06 pm

Cant wait for the roundtable discussion Garth. Will you be posting a transcript ?

#205 TurnerNation on 01.14.13 at 8:36 pm

#125 Rishu I’m trying to post Furrrst on your blog but it’s demanding I log in.

#206 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.14.13 at 8:45 pm

-
#137 Canadian Watchdog — My answer to the riddle is this: “Governments must prioritise the fight against corruption” — From the graph, I understand why govts. must prioritize against corruption. The only flaw is that govts. are themselves the most corrupted, so we’re already fighting a losing battle!

#152 Viewpoint — “Does anyone know the rationale for re-listing an expired listing at a higher price?”

Yes. The owners are or were former politicos, painting the pig withe lipstick and telling everyone listening it’s well worth it.

#187 Snowboid — “We can’t figure out why they don’t talk to us anymore!” — Let me guess: They’re as mad as hell and can’t afford it anymore!
*
2:59 clip This happened in BC in Oct. People using debit cards while filling up (Shell) were charged way more; Obomba’s deadbeat threats; Facebook UK loses 600K users in Dec.; Obomba pretty much guarantees the next fiscal crisis will be real bad. He is probably profiting nicely from it, and DoJ and Swartz cite>”DoJ will continue to turn a blind eye to banking and war criminals”; Borders and Target Target recently bought Zellers here. ‘Twill be interesting if this happens; Nestle has no right to water; The Boss “THIS is precisely why the Federal Reserve needs to be abolished immediately, all odious US debt needs to be repudiated, and the US government should be printing its own money, as it is constitutionally enabled to do. And remember: all those “respectable”, well-clad bankers love wars, because all sides need to borrow, at usurious interest rates, to prop up their respective war machines.
wrh.com.
*
Obomba’s threat “The United States Supreme Court ruled in Youngstown Sheet & Tube Co. v. Sawyer that Harry Truman’s Executive Order 10340 to end the steel worker’s strike was unconstitutional, because Executive Orders may only be used to execute the will of the Congress, not create new laws at the President’s whim.”; wrh.com; 11:04 clip How the US abused Russia; 1:08:33 doc. The war on Cold Fusion; Drones over NYC? NYTimes closes its environment desk, because GW is a bloody sham, and Shiver Me Timbers! A link yesterday reported NASA saying earth was headed into a cooling period, such as this; Windmills The planet is shuddering to a halt; China’s space activities.

#207 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.14.13 at 8:53 pm

#197AACI Okanagan on 01.14.13 at 5:57 pm

Tell me AACI, what in your opinion is the difference between a 30 day sale price and a 90 day sale price? In other words; when a homeowner asks you to give them both a price that the home should sell for in 30 days and another that the home should sell for in 90 days what do you think they are asking?

#208 Patiently Waiting on 01.14.13 at 9:10 pm

Interestin, as todays hot sheets from the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board show new listings coming in at a 10 to 1 ratio as compared to sales.

New Listings 91
Back On Market Listings 6
Price Changes 29
Sold Listings 9

pw

#209 Amazed on 01.14.13 at 9:16 pm

#113… It’s advertised as Bryan’s house on MLS and I’m not sure if they ever had any offers. The amazing thing about the Internet is that if you google any address you can get all kinds of info. For example homes that have been on the market forever will have old you tube videos. Amazingly some sellers are asking $200,000 k more then they were in 2011. Ie. a home off Mississauga road for $2.1mil now was listed at $1.9 mil in 2011… Same owner. If it was me I’d try to get all old info deleted off the net.

#210 Amazed on 01.14.13 at 9:23 pm

#208.. Discussing real estate with family or friends is a sore subject. 3 of us were discussing a recent friends good purchase. She got a steal. Anyways. The second friend bought an investment (paid a premium). Will be underwater before its built. When the question was asked why we haven’t left… Said I’m waiting for prices to be realistic again. Friend left… Didn’t like my answer. Oh well.

#211 Ronaldo on 01.14.13 at 9:27 pm

#207 Harvard Grad – re: Brad Lamb

”geez – this guy should go down as one of the best!”

I reckon this guy could give him a run for his money. Maybe DA knows him. Great salesman.

http://www.orlandoprojects.com/orlandobio.html

#212 45north on 01.14.13 at 9:30 pm

Neo: I grew up in the 50′s in a wartime house

me too but in North York just north of the 401

So many of my ‘refugee g’friends’ did the same.

good story Neo

#213 Canadian Watchdog on 01.14.13 at 9:38 pm

#211 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad

Answer: Constitutional monarchy, Ministry is subject to parliamentary confidence

Canada
Australia
New Zealand
Norway
Sweden
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Spain

Household Debt

#214 prairie person on 01.14.13 at 9:46 pm

New York Times:

“Mr. Teran owes more than $200,000 on a house in Bloods gang territory that is now worth closer to $50,000, he said.

Up the street, a tree-lined avenue with views of the nearby foothills, four candles marked the spot where a gang member was killed in a drive-by shooting. Across the street, metal thieves have gutted one of the foreclosed homes that dot the neighborhood, ripping air conditioners and electrical boxes off the walls long before the police responded.”

Something wicked this way comes.

#215 Nicorette Man on 01.14.13 at 9:49 pm

Not to worry about hoods like Lorne Park and others… I spoke with realtors specialized in these kind of hoods during times when they were more talkable. Many buyers are doctors which in agent’s words are financially inept. Many doctors fell at financing, and that during the good times. Many of them are overextended, no matter how high their income is. It is hard to find a pocket deep enough to not put a hole in it. Very few people of the working generation can abtain from overextending. Very few people can keep their wants in check. The downturn will hit every level of wealth and it will create their specific dramas. More so the high end buyers will be more composed and cruel when the time comes. The spinning top candlestick is in. Only who didn’t see enough of them would hope needlessly. That is exactly why it shows first and there is not an outright drop. HOPE. The worst enemy of the soul.

#216 AACI Okanagan on 01.14.13 at 9:54 pm

#197AACI Okanagan on 01.14.13 at 5:57 pm

Tell me AACI, what in your opinion is the difference between a 30 day sale price and a 90 day sale price? In other words; when a homeowner asks you to give them both a price that the home should sell for in 30 days and another that the home should sell for in 90 days what do you think they are asking?
——————————————————-
We don’t get asked that, only CHMC/Genworth and lawyers acting on behalf of banks ask for a 30 day marketing period. USPAP (Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice ) requires an opinion of exposure time, not marketing time, when the purpose of the appraisal is to estimate market value. There is a difference between exposure time and marketing time.

#217 the Phantom on 01.15.13 at 12:20 pm

Hi Garth!

Long time…been away but always good to read; you know even though it has been several months, it feels ALMOST like coming home…Kinda sad ‘eh?

I would be remiss if I didn’t offer my personal antipathy in this wretched, wonderful blog. Sherry Cooper should be consigned to the slag heap of Canadian history and join the other “trained seals” like Diane Francis and her personal idol Myron Baloney (or were there some letters I mixed up there somewhere; forgive me “Mr. esteemed former PM of Canada” who lied to Canadians too many times to be counted).

I believe the apt description for all three of these fine upstanding Canadians would be thus: “they are all branch plant flunkies; with branch plant ideas”…

1. In the case of our most beloved PM, elected as he was in 1984 on a wave of Trudeau irritation and (Turner hemlock juice from those most unfortunate Senate appointments he witnessed and then approved), he may well have been motivated by the desire to reward those most able thank him then and after he was removed from public orifice (oops, I mean office);

2. Francis’ motivation is unknown; she may well be a woman within who beats the heart of a true Fascist (who knows); she married right though so she can’t be entirely obtuse AND she has been blessedly quiet these past years and keeps her violently orgasmic views of former PM Baloney to herself;

3. In the case of Ms. Cooper however, the more often she opens her mouth and causes air to pass through those raspy vocal chords that double for a larynx; the lower her reputation seems to drift. It would make one wonder if she could resist the urge to speak on television, confine her remarks to a more sterile media like the papers and have someone with a shred of common sense review and “tinker” with (or what the hell, maybe just write the entire script for her and either underline or bold the parts wherein additional enunciation is required), she might slow, stop or possibly reverse among Canadians the growing realization of how silly she looks when she poses for that 45 second televised clip…

Then again, what do I know, for certain? My TSFA account is topped up and invested in Corporate Bonds…

the Phantom

#218 stu on 01.15.13 at 4:17 pm

The only evil I know of is govnt, central bankers, big bankers and the military industrial complex Cia, CSIS, etc. They all work to make us poor and uninformed and stupid. Paper assets are dead. Hard assets will always be worth something. The stock marke t is made to shake out the weak.

I guess 1929, 1987, the 70s and tecj crash are all flukes. Uncle Garth will lead u into poor house. Its better to have a house!!!

#219 NewWorldPartyDotOrg on 01.15.13 at 7:50 pm

What Brad Lamb has done is called “Pumping and Dumping”.

This is illegal on the stock market. But this kind of manipulation goes on rampantly in real estate.