Ready?

fire

Last month this pathetic blog told you to expect 2013 to be the year that the new, sexed-up, Carney-less Bank of Canada raised its interest rates. Twice, in fact. Both increases, I suggested, would come late in the year, likely when the bank does its thing around Labour Day and again just past Thanksgiving.

So what? So the prime would become 3.5%, and everybody with a variable-rate mortgage would have a bad day. But that’s just for starters. The chartered banks would naturally follow suit, and heap another helping of basis points onto their entire mortgage roster. After all, mortgage originations have plowed dirt in the last few months. Nobody – nobody – in the Big Five expected volumes of new mortgages to evaporate the way they have since last July.

That, of course, was when the elfin deity, F, and his peckerettes lowered the boom on property virgins everywhere, Vancouver and the entire Toronto condo market. By killing off the 30-year mortgage he raised mortgages rates the equivalent of 0.9% for new buyers, which led directly to the cascading in sales I’ve been bleating about for months. So imagine what another half point would do, coming at the same time as the bond market sees tumbling prices and swelling yields. (That’s already happening.)

So here’s the scenario keeping realtors up at night, fingering their Land Rover keys, trying to decide between the lease and eating. Fixed-term mortgages (like the ever-popular fiver) start to move higher in the late winter and early Spring, pacing the bond market moves (where the banks fund them). Then in the autumn, VRMs increase twice as the central bank finally starts to normalize things.

Suddenly everyone in Canada with a variable-rate mortgage or a fixed-term rate coming due in 2014 or 2015 – most of them at a ridiculous 3% or less – is guaranteed to have higher payments immediately, or upon renewal. Are they going to be horny to sell and move on up the property ladder? Fuhgeddaboudit.

And how about property values? If rates rise even a half point, with affordability already at the breaking point in most cities, won’t prices have to drop? Of course they will. And this is exactly where we’re headed. In other words, all those delusionals who have flooded this site for the past few years saying Canada is the new Japan, that the cost of money could never rise again and interest rates would actually be dropping, will simply have to change their Depends. There was never any doubt rates had but one direction in which to travel.

But don’t take this from me, just because I’m always right and have six-pack abs. I mean, here’s the biggest bank repeating my words. This week RBC (where mortgages come from) also stepped up to the plate and said the Bank of Canada will, in fact, insert the carrot.

“The Bank of Canada should be the only major central bank to actually make the move to tighten this year,” head fixed income and currency strategy dude told analysts. “We’re looking for 50 basis points in aggregate tightening skewed toward late this year.” Joining the Royal, by the way, are economists at TD Bank. And the GreaterFool Economics Department (pictured above). After all, it’s so obvious where we’re headed.

The US economy is in the middle of an awakening which every month is adding jobs, more real estate sales and consumer confidence. The re-elected president just won the fiscal cliff fight against a bunch of Republicans still wondering where their manhood went. The S&P 500 has re-established a five-year high after climbing 13% in 2012. US corporate profitability is at near-record levels and grew 12% in the last quarter. Even in little Canada we saw about 40,000 jobs created last month, where an American renaissance has an immediate impact.

Given the renewal of growth, there’s no way central banks will keep throwing gas on the economy in the form of stimulus spending and, especially, rock-bottom cheapo money. To do so would court inflation, bring damaging wage-price escalation and lessen hard-won productivity. Nope. Ain’t gonna happen.

Besides in Canada, where household debt now surpasses that to the south, where houses cost almost double those in America and HGTV horniness has made every 22-year-old think she deserves yards of granite and glass sinks, the feds need to turn the tap off.

Will there be consequences? Of course. Real estate will be collateral damage for a while, and especially in some markets. But the alternative – keeping mortgages cheap and house prices rising – is no alternative. To do so would turn a sometimes-painful correction in Canadian housing into a zombie blood-letting more disturbing that the Lang & O’Leary Report.

So, if you’ve been thinking about selling, do it. If you’re buying, get pre-approved and practice being a prick. If you have a mortgage renewing within a year, do something about it. If you’re variable, lock in.

And get your news here.

203 comments ↓

#1 Sparky55 on 01.10.13 at 10:08 pm

I’ve been noticing a lot of new listings in NS lately. A lot are previously listed properties from last fall that were taken off the market. Most have the same asking price or are $10,000-20,000 higher then when they took them off the market after several price reductions.

There have been some price changes, mostly downward, but some, mostly developers have increased their prices, in groups, $10,000-20,000 higher.

Sales have been very weak, but that is likely expected the 2nd week or so into the new year.

Does anyone know if pre-approvals from before the stricter rules were put in place are still valid (ie typical 3 months), or were they void immediately?

A few notable listings (out of many more):

Developer relisting after numerous price increases after being on the market for over a year (started at: $585,900, ended at $669,000):
http://www.viewpoint.ca/property/cutsheet/41349218?no-nav=1&no-footer=1
I haven’t quite figured out this “always increasing the new, built up house trend” This one went up 14% in 6 months (although they did stop increasing it later in the year). It seems to be done in coordinated groups, one area at a time, while almost none sell. Then one sells for list price, or beyond (beyond *might* be legitimate if extras are added). I believe it is manipulation to make it look like (new) houses are always costing more and more – for better get in quick before you are priced out forever mentality.

This developer is actually dropping prices after almost a year (was $384,900, to $375,900). I believe this a first that I’ve noticed:
http://www.viewpoint.ca/property/cutsheet/41169210?no-nav=1&no-footer=1

This one’s funny – changing listing prices all over the place, from: $125,000 to $650,777 (Love the ending 777’s!):
http://www.viewpoint.ca/property/cutsheet/10096972?no-nav=1&no-footer=1

#2 Ralph Cramdown on 01.10.13 at 10:12 pm

I sold Canadian bank common yesterday, almost all of it. Not that I don’t think that it’s a great long term foundation for a growth portfolio, but short to medium term?…

#3 City that smells like it sounds on 01.10.13 at 10:18 pm

2nd baaaaby!!!!

#4 Realtors in a panic on 01.10.13 at 10:20 pm

If interest rates went to even 5% which isn’t even the historical average what would happen to housing? We all know housing would crash over 50% and every indebted and hungry for money realtor knows it.

#5 espressobob on 01.10.13 at 10:21 pm

Dear Garth,

You had to mention Lang & O’leary? Amanda is hot! As far as O’leary I need a five gallon bucket!

#6 totalinvestor.com on 01.10.13 at 10:28 pm

“… insert the carrot..”

Garth, what were you thinking?

#7 Mark on 01.10.13 at 10:29 pm

There’s a 0% chance of an interest rate increase happening this year and it is far more likey that the BoC is behind the curve right now in lowering interest rates. After all, the Canadian economy is going into deflation, with construction and government workers galore becoming unemployed (nevermind the oilpatch), leaving a major lack of demand.

However, even if the BoC lowers interest rates, which is a likely scenario, this might not translate into retail interest rates as applicable to actual borrowers as the quality of borrowers’ balance sheets likely will diminish. After all, if housing drops 20%, a lot of folks will be underwater, and the buyers of the past few years will have suffered a substantial loss of equity. Only stock and bond speculators will have the benefit of the lower BoC policy target rate, not beleagured and underwater homeowners who will be taken to the cleaners.

In other words, very good for Canadian bank shares and Canadian bank profits, but armageddon is on its way for borrowers with housing collateral.

#8 ChickenLittle on 01.10.13 at 10:32 pm

So we have Smoking Man and now we have a smoking hot man, thanks to Garth. This blog truly just keeps on giving…

#9 DR. WAYNE on 01.10.13 at 10:34 pm

#3 City that smells like it sounds on 01.10.13 at 10:18 pm

2nd baaaaby!!!!

====================

Oh Highly Odouriferous One … you may be the ‘2nd baaaaby’, but you’re a resounding ‘1st a$$hole’.

#10 Hoof Hearted on 01.10.13 at 10:34 pm

“No Obvious Reason” For Why China Is Massively Boosting Stockpiles of Rice, Iron Ore, Precious Metals, Dry Milk

http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=63443

Why does China need four times as much rice year-over-year? Why purchase more iron when you already have a huge surplus?

Why buy gold when, as Federal Reserve Chairmen Ben Bernanke suggests, it is not real money? Why build massive cities capable of housing a million or more people, and then keep them empty?

It doesn’t add up. None of it makes any sense.

Unless the Chinese know something we haven’t been made privy to.

Is it possible, in a world where hundreds of trillions of dollars are owed, where the United States indirectly controls most of the globe’s oil reserves, and where super powers have built tens of thousands of nuclear weapons and spent hundreds of billions on weapons of war (real ones, not those pesky semi-automatic assault rifles), that the Chinese expect things to take a turn for the worse in the near future?

The Chinese are buying physical assets – and not just representations of those assets in the form of paper receipts – but the actual physical commodities. And they are storing them in-country. Perhaps they’ve determined that U.S. and European debt are a losing proposition and it’s only a matter of time before the financial, economic and monetary systems of the West undergo a complete collapse.

At best, what these signs indicate is that the People’s Republic of China is expecting the value of currencies ( they have trillions in Western currency reserves) will deteriorate with respect to physical commodities. They are stocking up ahead of the carnage and buying what they can before their savings are hyper-inflated away.

etc etc.

=================================

Remember…with “X” you get egg rolls.

#11 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 01.10.13 at 10:36 pm

This is for Dr Wayne

9th !

#12 Bottoms_Up on 01.10.13 at 10:37 pm

#174 TEMPLE on 01.10.13 at 8:42 pm
——————————————-
Your arguments are so compelling, so ensconced with facts. Thank you for enlightening me.

Troll? Why yes I am, those that have been here as long as me could probably write out my life story.

#13 Sparky55 on 01.10.13 at 10:40 pm

#4 Realtors in a panic on 01.10.13 at 10:20 pm

If interest rates went to even 5% which isn’t even the historical average what would happen to housing?
********
Prices increase or drop roughly 10% for every 1% increase or decrease in interest rates. This is because the monthly payment is affected by precisely that amount, and monthly payment qualifiabilty (is that a word?) / affordability is pretty much a fixed value.

In a normal market, increasing the now nominal ~3% rate to 5% would have a approx 20% drop in housing values after a relatively short stabilizing period.
Right now, where the majority are living from, or less then pay cheque to pay cheque, well, lets just say it will be interesting, and not well liked by the majority who allowed them selves to get into that financial position.

#14 ChickenLittle on 01.10.13 at 10:44 pm

What happened to SM???

#15 Heretic on 01.10.13 at 10:45 pm

So what’s the take then, if we’re preparing for ever higher rates, of the sub 4% 10 year mortgages that are abound?

http://www.tdcanadatrust.com/products-services/banking/mortgages/numbers.jsp

If i’m locking in to a 5 for 3.2% is a 10 at 3.9% a better hedge? Are we looking that far?

Or is the lack of flexibility undesirable?

#16 Smoking Man on 01.10.13 at 10:46 pm

. 5 spike in prime, based on a strengthing us economy, and hum…….

But then again Lincoln is going to get the guns…… 100 million gun owners.. 025 say no, we won’t go, and that’s 250k worth of loons with bush masters….

Might not go down like you think O great Gartho…..,

#17 AACI Okanagan on 01.10.13 at 10:50 pm

#169 };-) aka D.A. on 01.10.13 at 8:13 pm

You can give me a bad time all you want. I really don’t give a rat’s ass. You must know that by now
—————————————————————

If that was the case why do you post on here so much and why do you respond to every post against you..

#18 Smoking Man on 01.10.13 at 10:55 pm

#14.. Flu bad one,

at 40 precent, and I never get sick do to ancolizing spondylitis. God help mortals….. With this bug…..

#19 Furst on 01.10.13 at 11:00 pm

FUUUUUURRRRSSSSTTT! Interesting story that I thought I’d share.

Dr. Wayne and I had dinner this evening and what a meet up it was. We shared a bottle of shiraz, a large mixed plate appetizer and each had a nice filet mignon and a coconut creme brule to finish the meal. Dr. Wayne congratulated on my wittiness and admitted how much more brilliant I am than him. He also said the ladies like me way more because I’m hot with a tight bod. What a night!

#20 GTA Girl on 01.10.13 at 11:01 pm

Tonight’s Lang & O’Leary was wonderful….because O’Leary wasn’t on…probably down staying at Atlantis as he was at March Break.

They presented the Sotheby’s RE numbers. How million dollars plus homes were selling like ice cream at a Saudi camel race. Smoke mirrors and a Cris Angel finish was all that Sotheby’s tried to push. Alas, but the reason behind it was that they’re opening new offices in Edmonton and Quebec City…splashy entrance.

Too bad it’s 2 yrs too late

#21 Rob on 01.10.13 at 11:06 pm

The average interest rate past 50 years is about between 7% and 8%.

I dont see how sustainable it would be to keep interest rates higher after the bubble burst because this correction should affect employment in the construction industry and home building supply store. These soon to be unemployed people have debt to pay. But I guess interest rates, bond markets and money supply is way above my head.

#22 Milionaire Machini$t on 01.10.13 at 11:06 pm

Mmmmmmmm…..Amanda Lang!!!!

#23 duke on 01.10.13 at 11:11 pm

Garth I don’t see how interest rates can rise? The switch to 25 year mortgages this summer had the effect of rising rates. But to actually bring rates up at this point would kill the housing market, shoot the CDN dollar up through the roof and kill the consumer economy by forcing those with mortgages to shop for ALPO and other fine foods for their personal consumption at their local Pet Smart.

#24 Vancouver Thunder on 01.10.13 at 11:12 pm

“The US economy is in the middle of an awakening which every month is adding jobs, more real estate sales and consumer confidence.”

You bet just make 16 – 1 trillion dollar platinum coins pay off the debt and then you will only have to make 1 or 2 trillion dollar coins every year to pay off that years deficit.
Simple. Lets get a corrupt CITI derivative dealer to run the US Treasury and everything will be fine.

Dont bet against America!

#25 JSS on 01.10.13 at 11:15 pm

Amanda Lang is sooooo hot

#26 };-) aka D.A. on 01.10.13 at 11:19 pm

Crank ‘em Baby!

Gonna happen sooner or later so let’s git ‘er done!

Yes it will decimate a lot of the young FTB Greater Fools but as they say shit happens. Sorry pups but you shouldn’t have been so house horny and had parents, if not a REALTOR®, to guide you sanely forward.

Overall though cranking the rates is not going to do much harm as they won’t be raising them that much nor too quickly anyway.

And most of those I deal with have been around long enough to remember that historically about 8.0% interest rates are more the norm and conducted themselves accordingly.

So BRING ‘ER ON BABY LET’S SEE HOW THIS PUPPY RIDES!

#27 Kilt on 01.10.13 at 11:22 pm

Technically Garth, you have been wrong for about 4 years now. I’d be surprised to see any rise in rates while the US is keeping theirs steady until 2015?
I hope you are right this time. 1% increase in rates should equate to a 10% drop in prices if people are only putting 5-10% down.

Kilt

In 2010 I said rates would rise, and they did. In 2012 F’s move had the same effect. In 2013 the BoC will do as predicted. No apologies here. The end game is obvious. — Garth

#28 kreditanstalt on 01.10.13 at 11:23 pm

House prices about to start their free-fall, money is already too expensive for marginal new buyers, jobs are about to start disappearing and the farcical CPI shows “no (price) inflation”.

Add to that the demand for Canadian bonds, the indebtedness of consumers, many predictions of a – somehow – continuing strong Canadian dollar AND the government’s supposedly better-than-others debt picture and there’s not a snowball’s chance in hell of a rate increase for years to come.

Bank on it. But just don’t borrow more – the economy won’t give you an reason to do so anyway…

#29 espressobob on 01.10.13 at 11:28 pm

#19 Furst, That rocks dude!

#30 young & foolish on 01.10.13 at 11:34 pm

Can we actually believe that the economy is “coming back”? I soooo want to believe this, but many folks are saying stocks are already at their 52 week peak!

They said that a year ago. — Garth

#31 espressobob on 01.10.13 at 11:34 pm

#9 Payne! Your one the wrong site. Try XTUBE. Hardly a doctor, more like a psychopath.

#32 HeartoftheWorld on 01.10.13 at 11:37 pm

‘And this is exactly where we’re headed. In other words, all those delusionals who have flooded this site for the past few years saying Canada is the new Japan, that the cost of money could never rise again and interest rates would actually be dropping, will simply have to change their Depends. There was never any doubt rates had but one direction in which to travel.’

Good post, as ever. However, there are a couple of logical problems with it, methinks. Let’s start with your statement above.

The loony is presently trading at US $1.01, and per the US Fed, US rates will remain ZIRPed until 2015. Therefore, if the BoC raises rates, the loony will charge ahead, further eviscerating Canadian manufactures and exports. I work in Canada’s one time ‘Hollywood North’, and I know whereof I speak. These days Vancouver isn’t even in the budgetary ballpark anymore.

So yes, rates only have one way to go — up. The question is when?

Second point (also made by another commentator): as you have pointed out (in every post for months) the crash has now begun. If rates go up that will accelerate the process, and tip the Canadian economy directly into the dumpster. There will have went any remaining jobs — in home construction, for example. Add those losses to the job losses in exports, and we don’t have a pretty picture.

Third point: I don’t understand your Pollyannaesque view of the US economy. Yes, the US Fed can endlessly run (stock market) asset prices up by monetizing debt (‘printing money’). That is good for the 10% of the US population that own stocks. Everyone else there is either unemployed, underemployed, or otherwise SOL (s__t out of luck).

I did notice these bank announcements, which seemed choreographed. What do they really mean? (everybody has a ‘bully pulpit’ these days, and tries to direct the herds in their preferred direction). My take is that the banks want people to sign up for mortgages now, ‘while rates are STILL LOW, and before they are PRICED OUT OF THE REAL ESTATE MARKET FOREVER!!!

#33 NAGA on 01.10.13 at 11:38 pm

Yes rates will go higher – but not in 2013 – although bond traders will try to influence outcome as a lot of government debt due to roll over – but overall deflation, real economic growth and disposable income still in an ongoing drag….

Not sure if you have ever posted on Insurance (Whole Life and/or Universal) if it should be part of an investment portofolio for the fixed component. Also excellent vehicle for wealth transfer to next generation and tax free treatment. Associated cash values can be used as emergency funds or used as a last resort….

Maybe Re Agents should think about certifying as Insurance Agents to replace lost commissions/income for the next few years as the trend to lower sales is here to stay but I am not buying that the price correction will be significant most likely less than 10% but Condo’s will be higher and I agree differentiation by geographical markets….location, location, location.

#34 T5>myT4 on 01.10.13 at 11:54 pm

Saving money just isn’t cool anymore.

Robert Kiyosaki said so; …”Saving money will never make you rich”

So why bother ?
Look at the line ups every single day at Starbucks, Macdonalds, and Wal-Mart. People just keep on buying, seldom save.

Corporations and the so called 1% have more influence on government/central banking than ever before. 90% of stocks are owned by the richest 10% of people, the same people with influence and friends in high places. They wont allow each other to loose money.

Debt slaves will be ruined by the housing crash, S&P will continue to print cash for those who are in it.

BULLISH !

#35 DA why don't you mention all the foreclosures in Kelowna too! on 01.10.13 at 11:59 pm

Hey DA, you coward why didn’t you answer my post yesterday?

Here’s the post, get your butt busy I want to see those numbers:

#18 DA why don’t you mention all the foreclosures in Kelowna too! on 01.09.13 at 11:15 pm

#36 Soylent Green is People on 01.11.13 at 12:00 am

Hmmm, my x-mas present pic is very late, but thank you anyway. I hate to sound like the horn-dogs on here, but dayam, hottie!

………………………….

In the very same week Chief Spence was continuing a hunger strike, vainly seeking a meeting with Harper to discuss the Third World living conditions of Canada’s First Nations, we learned his most senior minister — Jim Flaherty — had expensed makeup.

Yes… make-up.

That’s right, makeup. Documents tabled in the House of Commons revealed Canada’s finance minister, who makes about a quarter of a million a year, charged taxpayers nearly $130 to pay for makeup. For him. To be precise, Flaherty expensed $119.15 on “cosmetics” and $9.99 for “beauty supplies.”

http://www.torontosun.com/2013/01/04/politics-isnt-so-easy-breezy-beautiful?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=recommend-button&utm_campaign=Politics+isn%E2%80%99t+so+easy%2C+breezy%2C+beautiful

.

#37 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.11.13 at 12:01 am

Smoking Man:

…..are you impersonating yourself again ?

#38 cramar on 01.11.13 at 12:05 am

I think the CBC should change to the “Lang & Turner Exchange”. Who is with me on this?

#39 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.11.13 at 12:07 am

Dr Wayne….

….talk about a$$holes

DELETED

#40 DR. WAYNE on 01.11.13 at 12:09 am

MR. TURNER … JUST WHERE IN HELL DID YOU GET MY PICTURE FOR YOUR BLOG ???? Oh well, now you know that Furst’s comments are total horse sh++.

#41 espressobob on 01.11.13 at 12:10 am

# 9 Payne

You are so getting old!

#42 mathman on 01.11.13 at 12:11 am

The BOC has provided the housing market with world class performance ehancing drugs. Interest rates are the primary factor, combined with a sense of entitlement never before seen. The housing market is cooked. I only look at the “real” evidence. Certain areas of the GTA almost everyone is high ratio, the new mortgage rules have killed the $1 Mill + market, but proverty virgins are now thinking it is a good idea to use the visa for the DP on the shoebox in the sky that will be worth 50% less in 2 years.

I hope I am not right, but the math, the evidence I see everyday here in the Godless GTA, points directly to a major pullback, not Ireland or Nevada, but we should be so lucky if we only correct 30%. I see a nice car, I see debt. I see GC, SS, and a nice new Bathroom, I see a maxed out LOC with interest only payments.

My biggest fear is that as a taxpayer who rents and lives within his means, I will be bailing out those that have spent the last 4 year making irrational, fundamentally stupid RE purchases. At that point I’m saying bye bye Canada.

#43 Cici on 01.11.13 at 12:26 am

I really like today’s post. Very eye-opening.
Thanks Garth.

#44 Just Asking on 01.11.13 at 12:27 am

Did he happen to mention his favourite body part that starts with “a”?

#45 Just Asking on 01.11.13 at 12:29 am

#19 Furst
My question above was for you.

#46 };-) aka D.A. on 01.11.13 at 12:34 am

#35DA why don’t you mention all the foreclosures in Kelowna too! on 01.10.13 at 11:59 pm

You wouldn’t believe any stats I provided anyway regardless. So…

go pound sand.

#47 martin9999 on 01.11.13 at 12:35 am

T5>myT4

—-
lol

#48 TCH on 01.11.13 at 12:35 am

“So, if you’ve been thinking about selling, do it.”

If you’re thinking about the move, do it! Europe still down for the count. No guts, no glory.

http://theceliachusband.blogspot.fr/2012/01/blog-post.html

#49 Investx on 01.11.13 at 12:37 am

Hopefully you’re right this year about interest rates, Garth.

#50 martin9999 on 01.11.13 at 12:37 am

the markets made if at 5 year high today.

Garth dont you think that we are here to quick to fast. and also a bit overpriced in the short term?

Correction soon. Buying opp. — Garth

#51 espressobob on 01.11.13 at 12:41 am

#40 Payne

The unfortunate thing about you is simple. Your a LOSER. why fight it. your a bum.

#52 Gary Swipes on 01.11.13 at 12:45 am

SOLD!
Finally out of the Vancouver condo market. Price down 20% from an offer 2 years ago (that fell through on pet restrictions). Funny,some news “real estate experts” said Vancouver real estate prices were only going to go up!

#53 K on 01.11.13 at 12:46 am

Hey Chicken Little

Good Smokin’ sense of humour both you and Garth ! We all need that !

#54 Humpty Dumpty on 01.11.13 at 12:50 am

Ready Or not… He’s comin for you…

For decades now, they’ve been implanting RFID chips in animals to help their owners track them. There are people who have volunteered to have such chips implanted in themselves or their children, ostensibly to help in case of a kidnapping or similar life-threatening issue. I think it’s just a matter of time, however, before governments get the idea that every citizen should have such a chip implanted – and has to use it for almost everything.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/doug-casey-orwells-nightmare-darker-side-modern-technology

Revelation 13

16And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads:

17And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.

18Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six

This “duded”, is definitely going to set the world a blaze.

#55 Nick on 01.11.13 at 12:52 am

#30 young & foolish

The Dow Jones Industrial Average started the 20th Century at 68 and finished it at 11 497. Breaking new ground is the norm, not the exception.

#56 AprilNewwest on 01.11.13 at 12:54 am

#33 Who do you think you are kidding saying that house prices will only drop 10%. They’ve already dropped that much and more in many places around the Lowermainland BC including West Van and Richmond. I don’t know about other cities.
Do you really have a clue?

#57 K on 01.11.13 at 12:56 am

Hey Heart o’ the World

You have a good grasp of the big picture in my humble opinion !

#58 Led on 01.11.13 at 1:07 am

I say they keep rates where they are until home prices start to go up, allowing the homeowner to pay off their mortgages cheaply. .brilliant Carney. this will probably be one of those times when it really was the time to buy.
things really are different this time.

#59 Cici on 01.11.13 at 1:10 am

#32 HeartoftheWorld

That’s an interesting theory. I suppose they could be trying to raise some momentum in the Spring market, seeing that there are likely going to be record listings hitting the market. Didn’t they pull a similar trick out of their hat last year to drive the Spring market to new highs? The fear of the 25-year amort, rising interest rates, no more 5% downs…enough to drive a short-lived frenzy that did well to skew the real results in 2012.

Which could also explain why all the realtor cartels have been so happily chirping in the media that prices would indeed be rising again this year.

Most people aren’t going to get it until it is way too dangerously late in the game. And then they won’t know what hit them.

#60 };-) aka D.A. on 01.11.13 at 1:10 am

Back in ’81 my wife and I were wanna-be first time homes. Real estate values seemed impossibly high at the time. $65,000 was a lot of dough back then and there was a feature article in the Vancouver Sun titled something to the effect “Your $65,000 dream home!” over the picture of a run down Surrey Crack Shack. We thought all prospect of ever owning a home was gone for us. And then interest rates cranked up. Sure those increased rates pushed real estate prices down, but not all that much really.

Prices were still horrifically high and then on top of it all we graduated with interest at 18.5% on our student loans.

But we bought a home with a mortgage at 16.5% with a little creative financing to wrangle a modest minimal down payment and haven’t looked back since.

My point? Rising interest rates will happen, they’ve got to, eventually. But in the long run it’s not going to make as much difference as you people think.

#61 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.11.13 at 1:11 am

#40 DR. WAYNE on 01.11.13 at 12:09 am

MR. TURNER … JUST WHERE IN HELL DID YOU GET MY PICTURE FOR YOUR BLOG ???? Oh well, now you know that Furst’s comments are total horse sh++.

===================================

Dr Wayne:

I think you erred…its THIS recent photo= you

http://www.greaterfool.ca/page/5/

#62 Basil Fawlty on 01.11.13 at 1:15 am

While the “reported” US econmic numbers appear to indicate a rebound, as Ross Perot used to say, “that dog don’t hunt”.

Food stamp recepients increased by 1M in the 3rd quarter and the employment numbers are junk, since they ignore those who have given up looking, or are working part-time, but want fulltime.

Blackrock has spent $2.5B buying 16,000 homes for rental purposes. No wonder their real estate market is improving.

The US is printing $85B/month “out of thin air” ie. with no cooresponding increase in GDP. If this is discontinued it will blowup the deriviatives market, since so much of it is built on low interest rates. In addition, sovereign debt payments are already unsustainable (see $85B per month in printing) and an increase in rates would kill economies.

I disagree that the US is on the mend and don’t see rates rising in the US.

#63 Mic D'angelo on 01.11.13 at 1:21 am

To: T5>my T4 #34
Robert Kiyosaki declared bankruptcy in 2012 by 24 million plus dollars. They don’t want you to save money because the lenders want you to pay interest, fees etc. to the them until you die. Here are some examples, a mortgage of $450,000 for 25 years at say average of 4.00% interest rate would be $2,400.77 per month. A husband and wife have two new cars 5 years or financing of say $27,000 at 2.99% each which would be $493.24 *2=$986.48 per month. If they leased their cars it would be worse over the long -term than financing the 5 years. They both have $6,000 of credit card debt each which at minimum monthly payments would be depending on the credit card issuer about $150 to $180 per month *2=$360 per month maximum. The credit card debt could take about 18 years depending on the interest rates and monthly payments to pay off assuming they did not spend more on their credit cards, not likely. I gave three common examples that were not excessive actually average to a bit above average and it costs $3074.01 per month. Remember ,people this is after tax dollars you must earn to keep this going. This means this couple would have to earn about $52,500 or $4,333.34 per month a year to pay income taxes and service this debt. This does not include food, utilities, prescriptions,clothes,car maintenance,property taxes, insurance car,home etc. cable, internet, and other expenses. Yes, don’t save money because it is not a good idea not!!!!!

#64 Variable still too high on 01.11.13 at 1:25 am

I renewed last year and shopped around at a few places. The difference between the locked in 5 year and the prime -0.5% I got…. we’ll i just don’t see the rates going that high, that fast.

PS I liked it better when you used hot chicks, he’s not my type.

#65 The Prophet Elijah on 01.11.13 at 1:33 am

Rates move lock step with the federal reserve of the US. No rate increase to service that behemoth debt. Plus they’ve been bluffing that for years to scare the sheeple on toning it down on debt. DEBT is the word here folks and NOTHING has been fixed since 2008 only papered over with more……DEBT! Wonder how much Garth has been bought out for by the cartel

#66 People never learn on 01.11.13 at 1:35 am

I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.
Thomas Jefferson
3rd president of US (1743 – 1826)

#67 nonplused on 01.11.13 at 1:36 am

Don’t think interest rates are rising now that the US has the $1 trillion dollar platinum coin.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/01/the-trillion-dollar-coin-compromise-everybody-can-support/267002/

(This isn’t the best discussion of this ludicrous idea, but it’s a start. Go to zerohedge.com for the real low down.)

So now that the US will be issuing trillion dollar platinum coins (market value $1700, similar to how a $50 gold coin is worth $1650), Japan issuing bazillion dollar chopsticks, and probably Grease putting $ 1 zillion Euro stickers on dates, the financial system is exposed for what it is. A fraud. Un-backed printed money is worth nothing except by convention. As Ben said, scarcity is the key.

I think the treasury should print rolls of toilet paper on which every sheet says $1 billion and the Fed should monetize that. At least that way they would have a use for their unmarketable “asset”.

#68 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.11.13 at 1:52 am

-
“Nobody – nobody – in the Big Five expected volumes of new mortgages to evaporate the way they have since last July.” — That’s a nice way of reminding us to expect the unexpected (see reply to Ronaldo’s #184)!

“But don’t take this from me, just because I’m always right and have six-pack abs. And get your news here.” — Yes Bwana Sahib Gartholomew!
*
#184 Ronaldo on 01.10.13 at 9:48 pm — Wow! Great link! A 1,700 wave (almost vertical) — that would be great surfing, but I wouldn’t last very long!

The cause of the wave is similar to what El Hierro in the Canaries is. They are on a fault line, and when it gets the shiver-willies, lots of rock falls into the ocean and will generate a wave hitting the east coast at full speed, then returning to drench the UK.

Thanks for the article!

#10 Hoof Hearted — “Unless the Chinese know something we haven’t been made privy to.” — Preparation, and it’s not Preparation H. New Yuan or Renmibi gold-backed currency plus WW3? Also here.

#16 Smoking Man — “Might not go down like you think O great Gartho…..,” — Fair assessment, SMan. See response to #10 HH above.

#19 Furst — Is that you in the lead pic? I can see the ladies drooling over you!

#34 T5>myT4 — “Saving money will never make you rich” — Absolutely right, but good investing will.
*
Breaking Away Rather than pay ObombaCare, companies are cutting their workers’ hours to part time; 0:31 clip The real and only Jon Corzine is not in jail; US, UK and the EU ” Many see the move as interference in the national debate.”; China Preparing (stockpiling) in more ways than one; Vaccine Tax funding the deficit? Avoid vaccines, avoid taxes! EU Cash Transactions This is an exc. question; Working For A Living past 95; Calif. Mfg. Jobs Trickling away; Politicos Where the greed level starts. Brainless, and lotsa taxpayers moolah to spend; Marks & Spencer Not great results. Pity, ‘cuz it’s a decent store; The Sandwich Man Self-promotion takes many roads; Over 20 mln. Americans own their homes outright, and that’s a damn good feeling; Gold up.
*
SSRI anecdotes A collection of articles, Poland A good lesson from the 1980s; School Shooting “You can’t make this up — there was a training mission going on at the school at 730AM this morning . . . also, they do have an armed guard, but he was unable to attend due to snow.”, Murder Very Conveniently See headline; Drunk Driving Deaths far outnumber guns, and NRA and Shadow Govt. This is a far more realistic position; 8:31 clip Disinfo. info.; McCarthy Was Right Communists in charge of USA; Monsanto Farmers about to take it to court; Free Energy Short article; Hand held X-ray scanners Star Trek: TNG comes to mind; Pagani’s new super car US$2.6 mln.? Over 40 Plant based compounds to stem cancer, GMO labeling in Washington State, and India signs bill into law; Windows 8 XP or W7 still work fine; Cold Fusion MIT takes it seriously; Future politico, but for now she’s a loud cat; Flying Bathroom Well, not really.

#69 Oakville Owner on 01.11.13 at 2:19 am

What to do?

Current rate 2.2%,VRM, with approximately 3 years left. Prime -.80%.

Stick with it?

Could lock in 5 years at 2.84%
or
Could lock in 10 years at 3.74%

What would you do Garth and the blog dogs?

#70 DR. WAYNE on 01.11.13 at 2:28 am

#61 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.11.13 at 1:11

=================

Nice try … but with utilization of ‘maximum’ neuron activity beneath your parietal bones and that’s all you could come up with … somewhat disappointing to say the least.

#71 house burden on 01.11.13 at 2:28 am

I like this article, the bonehead writer says
It’s still perplexing that regulators let homebuyers borrow their 5% down payment from high interest sources, yet the government bans lower-interest cash-back down payment mortgages and 100% financing.

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2013/01/alternative-down-payment-sources.html1

Yeah let them borrow from the Mob, or where ever they can find cash, but don’t place their freakin responsibilies on the backs of us tax payers.

#72 Fed-up on 01.11.13 at 2:47 am

@#42 mathman
————————————————————————-

What you fear in your comment is EXACTLY what is going to happen. Indebted losers will whoop it up with your hard earned savings at insanely low interest rates, and will walk away when they can no longer pay, leaving those who lived responsibly with the big fat bill. That is why I have already and preemptively waved Canada ciao and arrivaderci baby.

#73 Standard and Poor on 01.11.13 at 2:48 am

GreaterFool Economics Department is hereby giving a triple A rating.

#74 Jpn on 01.11.13 at 3:05 am

Aka DA # 60

Are you kidding! Your missing the obvious.
What was your income back in 81 in relation to your
mortgage? Likely a third “if not a little higher…”
Today’s average homeowner?…. Think about it.

#75 popados on 01.11.13 at 3:21 am

amanda hot yes ,side profile in hd but some things got to be done about those red joker LIPS!

#76 Blacksheep on 01.11.13 at 3:50 am

Garth, rates only have one direction to go, although
I find it very hard to believe it would be do to inflationary pressures….wonder what else, could possibly push rates up?

take care
Blacksheep

#77 Don't publish this on 01.11.13 at 3:56 am

I have been reading your blog since about May of 2012. I have no real estate apart from our farm on a Gulf Island – we closed the sale of our house in the west side of Vancouver in June 2012. I was a corporate lawyer in Vancouver for 35 years. I just wanted to let you know that I read your blog every day. I don’t know how you do it, but I really enjoy it.

#78 Freedom First on 01.11.13 at 4:22 am

Garth, today’s blog is one of my faves! Not surprised you pissed off so many people who posted today. Truth is hard to take for many people……especially the people who make their living from lying.

Agree totally with your reply on #50……Correction…….buying Opp. I am waiting for it. TFSA is full right now. Planning on investing/balancing when correction hits. Considering 2 ETF’s, filling/transferring 1 into 2014 TFSA, and 1 into 2015 TFSA……ETF’s are CPD preferred shares-yield around 4.5%, and ZUT equal weight utilities index-yield around 5.75%. Will only buy after pullback. Your thoughts Garth? Keep in mind I am balanced, liquid, diversified, debt free, and recognize the crazies on your blog:)……….if no reply Garth, I’m good with that Garth, you have been more than generous to me already….thank you….and keep on keeping on, you help many, many people.

#79 Buy? Curious? on 01.11.13 at 4:32 am

Now that people are becoming fearful, wouldn’t it a good time to buy? If you’re stable enough to hold on to your home for the next little rough patch, imagine what it will be worth in 10 years! (sorry old people. This comment doesn’t concern you. Shuffle on down) My game plan is to hold on to this house until 2022 then sell and move to some place tropical for 4months of the year. I’ll buy some small farm near Windsor, grow marijuana, for personal consumption of course and enjoy my life. Ladies, who’s in? Next to physical good looks, the second most important thing a woman looks for in a man is financial security. For the lucky woman who hooks up with me, you’ll have both!

#80 Tooz on 01.11.13 at 4:56 am

There is no way interest rates are going up in 2013. No country has ever come out of a ZIRP. CDA can’t raise until US does. US can’t afford rates to rise when they have 16T in debt and 1T in deficits. That is why they print money – to keep rates down. Were you drinking when you wrote this?

#81 info on 01.11.13 at 5:04 am

The vast majority of mortgage holders in Canada are counting on continued emergency level interest rates.

If you mention to them that rates will rise, they will immediately and angrily tell you that you are wrong. Their reason – rates were supposed to have increased by now but have not, so they will never increase. Take a look at the comments on Victoria’s local real estate blog for examples of this.

This will not end well.

#82 Cowpie on 01.11.13 at 5:22 am

What a silly pic tonight. I never knew fire fighters seem to burn all their body hair off as a job perk. No need to shave or wax for them! Go figure.

But babes and beefcakes are boring, dime a dozen. I frequently recommend this site (comments section exempted) to professional colleagues as insightful and intellectually stimulating. Could we just be dazzled with your literary and financial abilities? You’re too talented to devolve to the regular “shock and awe” tactics so common used today.

#83 Deb on 01.11.13 at 5:50 am

Although he is currently settling into his new English flat and is finally able to enjoy a decent cup of tea, Mark Carney has consistently warned us that the Bank of Canada will eventually move to normalize interest rates. This has provided us with the gift of time, time to prepare for the inevitable. Remember that it was late 2007 that the Bank of Canada rate was 4.5%.

For some reason, something Helen Keller said years ago comes to mind, when she stated, “The most pathetic person in the world is someone who has sight but no vision.”

#84 hoser on 01.11.13 at 6:36 am

In 2008, I really wanted to jump back into the real estate market. When prices started going down, I thought “This is just the start, sanity is finally returning and I will be able to afford a decent home for my family.” Then prices increased more, then more, then more. In 2010, I was so desperate to get into the market any tiny shack appealed to my sense of nesting. But alas, I couldn’t or didn’t have the means to bid against the asian invasion. In 2012, I gave up and decided that renting is my destiny because I will never be able to afford an average home on my average income for my average family. Funny thing, today as I see prices falling around me in Richmond, inventory swell, I don’t feel the urge. Lost the hunger to own. Could it be true? When prices are rising, one feels the panic that they will be priced out forever? But when prices drop, it becomes undesirable because no one else wants it? Maybe this is how public perception will fuel the ultimate crash in Canada.

#85 hoser on 01.11.13 at 6:44 am

Foreign investment fuelled the real estate boom in the Lower Mainland, especially Richmond, BC. With the premium Canadian Dollar, and real estate prices so appealing in the States, immigration laying down the welcome mat in other Countries, foreign investment has shifted it’s interests away from here. That is another contributing factor to HAMless in Vancouver.

#86 Dom on 01.11.13 at 8:35 am

I used to be a gold bug but thanks to garth I no longer share that view. Think about it people if the world would goto anarchy your gold would be just as useless as money. I also think housing is toast and will crumble with everyone’s fake equity. The stock market is going to do well for years to come. You know why buying now is a good idea? Everyone Hates or doesn’t trust the markets anymore. The elite have shaken the masses out of the markets and it’s common knowledge that markets are rigged and we all know how wrong the masses are. Also the masses think interest rates can not rise and you see the panic and screams from realtors and those over their heads. Thanks garth for the tips.

#87 Tony on 01.11.13 at 8:51 am

With Canada in recession and America in either a recession or a depression i hardly think interest rates have anywhere to go but down. What you see on Wall Street is called the January *it* factor. Where Wall Street takes that million to one shot that commodities and the market will go higher knowing if they’ll right all the sucker money will follow. Sadly of course the opposite will happen as America skids into either recession or a depression and the big boys on Wall Street unload all the positions they put in back in January. Both Canada and America are the new Japan but with much higher national debts and lazier workers (less productive).

#88 Tony on 01.11.13 at 8:57 am

Re: #82 Tooz on 01.11.13 at 4:56 am

Printing money pushes interest rates up not down.

#89 Makeorbreak on 01.11.13 at 8:58 am

Does Laureen Harper knows something that we don’t?

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/01/10/laureen-harper-sells-entire-stock-portfolio-prime-ministers-office-offers-no-reason/

#90 Rishu on 01.11.13 at 8:59 am

As a Gen Y. I hope the interest rates sky rockets to 10, 20 or even 30%.

Why???

It will force the price down on real estate.

And reward people who save money to make these purchases. They also won’t have to compete with the credit addicted imbeciles driving prices up for everything in Canada, because of cheap credit.

I drive a Kia, my friends drive Benz and B-ers.

At least I own my car, they used HELOC…

But that’s all wishful thinking since the world is un by Baby Boomers, and I am screwed anyways…

http://rishu.ca/post/37213665514/young-canadians-so-screwed

#91 Freedom 55 on 01.11.13 at 9:07 am

Bad real estate investments leave couple with $1.5-million in debt

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/11/bad-real-estate-investments-leave-couple-with-1-5-million-in-debt/

#92 AK on 01.11.13 at 9:17 am

#80 Freedom First on 01.11.13 at 4:22 am

“Agree totally with your reply on #50……Correction…….buying Opp. I am waiting for it. TFSA is full right now. Planning on investing/balancing when correction hits. Considering 2 ETF’s, filling/transferring 1 into 2014 TFSA, and 1 into 2015 TFSA……ETF’s are CPD preferred shares-yield around 4.5%, and ZUT equal weight utilities index-yield around 5.75%.”

You should not limit yourself to just preferred shares and utilities.

The US Banks will be reporting large profits starting today and going forward. If you don’t like individual stocks, then have a look at US Bank ETF’s.

#93 AK on 01.11.13 at 9:21 am

#89 Tony on 01.11.13 at 8:51 am
“With Canada in recession and America in either a recession or a depression i hardly think interest rates have anywhere to go but down. What you see on Wall Street is called the January *it* factor. Where Wall Street takes that million to one shot that commodities and the market will go higher knowing if they’ll right all the sucker money will follow. Sadly of course the opposite will happen as America skids into either recession or a depression and the big boys on Wall Street unload all the positions they put in back in January. Both Canada and America are the new Japan but with much higher national debts and lazier workers (less productive).”

Time to give your crystal ball a good polish.

#94 Eaglebay - Parksville on 01.11.13 at 9:33 am

#25 JSS on 01.10.13 at 11:15 pm
“Amanda Lang is sooooo hot”

You people must be blind and hard up.
My neighbour’s horse is better looking.
Have a second look.

Pls send pic of mare. — Garth

#95 gladiator on 01.11.13 at 9:43 am

Now that is one screaming violation of fireman safety! Skin burn galore? Too bad to have damaged such a fine specimen of a human male, but probably a good candidate for an award… A Darwin award.

#96 live within your means on 01.11.13 at 9:47 am

#48 TCH on 01.11.13 at 12:35 am

Nice Gite on the link you posted. We stayed 3 nights in a really nice one just outside of Pommard run by a French couple. PIL’s paid for it. We were 8 adults, 2 children. Youngest BIL was getting married for the 2nd time to a gal from Pommard. Gite had 5 bedrooms, 2 or 3 bathrooms, living room, huge dining room off a fully equipped kitchen, beautiful courtyard & within a few steps from the vineyards. What a wedding that was. Following day another big meal at noon at the community centre. (Her Mother & her relatives cooked everything.) So much left over that many came back to the Gite for supper & drank the remaining wine. SIL’s father was a Burgundy wine distributor – several wine tastings in the cave which housed up to 500K bottles. I loved the region so much we spent time there 2 yrs. later on our way south &, no doubt, will do so again this year.

BTW Peter, how are you coming along with the renovations?

#97 902 Scotian on 01.11.13 at 10:01 am

The next fiscal cliff debate end of February and market sell off will push bond yields, and fixed rates, back down.

A temporary move, of course. Just like the last one. — Garth

#98 Mr. Lahey on 01.11.13 at 10:09 am

Hey “Doc”. Mr. Lahey here. Just want to let you know that you must never lose sight of the fact that the crown prince of a$$holes, the mother of all a$$holes, the top dog in the a$$shole category is none other than yourself! So keep your Pavlovian responses going but bear in mind the reality of the situation!

#99 hangfire on 01.11.13 at 10:12 am

Hypocrisy? You decide.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/public+sector+pension+invests+millions+Enbridge+tobacco+stock/7804127/story.html

The civil service is not on your side either way.

#100 AK on 01.11.13 at 10:14 am

Wells Fargo Reports Record Full Year and Quarterly Net Income

1 hour ago by Business Wire

–Q4 Net Income of $5.1 Billion, Up 24% YoY; Record EPS of $0.91

Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC):

— Continued strong financial results: — Full year 2012: — Record net income of $18.9 billion, up 19 percent from 2011

— Record diluted EPS of $3.36, up 19 percent from 2011

— Revenue of $86.1 billion, up 6 percent from 2011

— Positive operating leverage (revenue growth of 6 percent exceeded expense growth of 2 percent)

— Returned more capital to shareholders through a higher common stock dividend (up 83 percent), and common stock repurchases (approximately 120 million shares)

— Fourth quarter 2012: — Record net income of $5.1 billion, up 24 percent from fourth quarter 2011

— Record diluted EPS of $0.91, up 25 percent from fourth quarter 2011

— Revenue of $21.9 billion, up 7 percent from fourth quarter 2011

— Total average core checking and savings deposits up $72.0 billion from fourth quarter 2011

— Total loans of $799.6 billion, up $29.9 billion from fourth quarter 2011

— Core loan portfolio up $47.7 billion from fourth quarter 2011(1)

— Fourth quarter 2012 results(2) included: — $393 million, or $0.05 per share, in above-average quarterly equity gains(3)

#101 hangfire on 01.11.13 at 10:15 am

Bond chart

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ETNX+Interactive#symbol=%5Etnx;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

good excuse for an equity explosion

#102 };-) aka D.A. on 01.11.13 at 10:32 am

#63 Mic D’angelo on 01.11.13 at 1:21 am

Robert Kiyosaki, Financial Guru, Declares Bankruptcy

“He won’t lose any of his rabid fans. That’s the benefit of having a cult-like audience. They ignore anything potentially negative.” – Luke Landes

#92 Rishu on 01.11.13 at 8:59 am

I’m a Baby Boomer and a REALTOR® and I too hope interest rates skyrocket. Yes it will cause some short term pain but we will adjust and things, in the long run will be better for it.

I agree real estate prices have pushed too high. It would be nice to see some reduction. When and if that were to happen rents, I don’t think, would follow. Not nearly so much anyway as they never do fall in lockstep with falling real estate values. In fact, as those real estate values fall, long before they get to where they might be headed, wanna-be landlords step in and buy the revenue properties they’ve been waiting for. That demand pushes real estate values back up before rents ever fall so much.

So the result of the preceding is that investors, of most al types, start to become more adequately compensated for the opportunity cost the incur by tying up their money – and rightfully so, it’s about time. Real estate values fall enough to provide a window of opportunity for those wanna-be FTBs and others to hop off the fence and get in. It becomes, once again, more viable to invest in rental properties (something that is actually happening right now in Kelowna as property values have dropped and now flat lined while rental rates are on the rise) although you’re better positioned if you aren’t financing the bulk of that purchase but still calculating the viability as were it 100% financed – use an interest rate of at least 7.0% for a safe margin.

So as a Boomer and a REALTOR® I welcome the prospect of rising interest rates and the ensuing ‘shakeout’ it might cause which, in the long run, will help cleans and make more healthy our economy.

#103 live within your means on 01.11.13 at 10:37 am

After moving to Hfx. from Mtl. in ’76 my sis & I finally decided to buy a 3 BR, 3 level attached TH condo in 1980, IIRC. She had moved 3 times & I 6 times in the interim. Mtg. rate was 14% I think. Within 6 mos/1 yr. rates went to 19% when we had to renew. We had assumed a mtg. Thankfully, as soon as rates dropped we renegotiated. It was still cheaper than both of us each paying high rent downtown + I having to paying extra parking in the building. In ’86 we both married on the same day. Hubby & I kept the TH until ’91. He did some renovations. We made enough to be able to put 25% down on our current home & then paid it off in 7 years.

#104 EIT on 01.11.13 at 10:42 am

This growth is marred with mall-investment that hasn’t been purged due to low interest rates. As usual emergency measures have become the norm, and the plebs financial illiteracy once again exposed for pillaging.

#105 Dupcheck on 01.11.13 at 11:03 am

Can the interest rates be: -0.25% in the negative territory? After all we live in Canada and we should be eating with golden spoons.

#106 };-) aka D.A. on 01.11.13 at 11:05 am

Of course it could happen wherever you might choose to retire, sunny Florida or snow covered Kelowna.

#107 Boomers Uber Alles on 01.11.13 at 11:09 am

#10

97% of asians are lactose intolerant
65% blacks are lactose intolerant

Dry Milk Stockpile?

And in Ontario we have supply management and
pay for milk, $$ prices seen nowhere else in world !
And Cheese too ! Most expensive in world !
What a gang Rape of Canadians..

And Teachers want to “work” for $80K and Retire with $60K per year ! ( minus 2 months summer time)

Enough is enough !

GARTH for PRIME MINISTER !!!!!!!!!

#108 Jaco Joubert on 01.11.13 at 11:09 am

Does anybody know here I can get a feed of new MLS listings? Similar to what you can get at http://tosold.ca

#109 The American on 01.11.13 at 11:12 am

Garth said, “Suddenly everyone in Canada with a variable-rate mortgage or a fixed-term rate coming due in 2014 or 2015 – most of them at a ridiculous 3% or less – is guaranteed to have higher payments immediately, or upon renewal. Are they going to be horny to sell and move on up the property ladder? Fuhgeddaboudit.”

This is the point I’ve been making all along… Nearly EVERYONE in Canada has a variable rate mortgage, or the equivalent of an ARM in the United States. ARMs in the U.S. allotted for less than 20% of all mortgages taken out, even at the peak of the U.S. bubble, and they are deemed to be one of the procuring causes of the real estate collapse in the U.S. In Canada, variable rate mortgages (ARMs) account for over 90% of all mortgages taken out by consumers. Do the math. Your banks are ANYTHING but prudent, and it is a matter of simple time before the entire Canadian real estate ponzi scheme crashes and burns into mad flames. It will make the U.S. look like child’s play. In fact, Canadian real estate is depreciating at a rate nearly DOUBLE that of what was ever witnessed in the United States, and this is just within the past 90 days. The Canadian crash is here, and you had better listen to those who say, “sell it while you still can.” The very minimal decrease some have witnessed so far is not even the tip of the ice berg. Give it a year, and you’ll be begging and wishing to have sold your home. Give it two years, and you won’t even know how to cope with the lost “value” of that sub-arctic real estate.

#110 NoOneOfConsequence on 01.11.13 at 11:20 am

LOL!
Clearly most readers don’t understand how interest rates are set.
“They” don’t set interest rates…the bond market dictates rates. You think the Greek government was setting rates at 9+ % there for a while? Just because they like riots?
When bond buying stops or slows, rates go up.

#111 Sebee on 01.11.13 at 11:24 am

Just wondering….

Any reason why they wouldn’t print say 500B CAD$ to pay off the debt and devalue the currency in a single quick shot? Erase the debt, make our manufacturing more competitive overnight. Kill 2 birds with 1 stone, no? Not possible?

No. — Garth

#112 AK on 01.11.13 at 12:16 pm

#19 Furst on 01.10.13 at 11:00 pm

“FUUUUUURRRRSSSSTTT! Interesting story that I thought I’d share.”

You said you were leaving.

#113 truthseeker on 01.11.13 at 12:17 pm

“in the Big Five expected volumes of new mortgages to evaporate the way they have since last July”

Hardly!

Residential Mortgages Outstanding (in millions)
Source: Bank of Canada

2011 Nov 821,885
2012 July 858,048
2012 Nov 875,990

#114 On The Sidelines on 01.11.13 at 12:23 pm

aka D.A. your response made yesterday made me think one thing !!! Your delusinal . Somewhere a village is missing you .

#115 Andrew on 01.11.13 at 12:30 pm

DA,

Great tactical move!

“So as a Boomer and a REALTOR® I welcome the prospect of rising interest rates and the ensuing ‘shakeout’ it might cause which, in the long run, will help cleans and make more healthy our economy.”

This should ensure some future sales as the market tumbles down and mitigate some of the anger that will be flung your way from past clients…

Sample converstation when the calls start to come in:

“Well, it was the best deal at the time! Yes I know you’re underwater and about to lose everything…I did my job…you got what you wanted…look no need to be rude…why don’t you just get off your ass and get a second or third job and stop whining! Good Day to you as well Sir!

If you keep us apprised of your success with a running sales tally this could be a very entertaining year for all of us!

#116 coastal on 01.11.13 at 12:31 pm

I think the next wave of selling pressure in the Victoria market will be from small business owners going bankrupt. There is so much expansion of two major malls with Target coming in and others that that will lure the shoppers and there’s a limited amount of consumer spending to go around in this town. The downtown has already shown signs of struggling by the small guy for a few years now. God knows how they keep their doors open as rents are sky high for anything within the core area of the city.

#117 AK on 01.11.13 at 12:32 pm

#99 902 Scotian on 01.11.13 at 10:01 am

“The next fiscal cliff debate end of February and market sell off will push bond yields, and fixed rates, back down.

A temporary move, of course. Just like the last one. — Garth”

Don’t be surprised if you don’t see a correction. The market has already priced in the usual shenanigans that will be taking place. Just liske the fiscal cliff garbage that took place a couple of weeks ago.

#118 robert james on 01.11.13 at 12:34 pm

Here is a couple of winners.. Morons like this should be neutered to end the gene pool of stupid.. http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/11/bad-real-estate-investments-leave-couple-with-1-5-million-in-debt/

#119 claudius emperor on 01.11.13 at 12:45 pm

Very interesting experience with the teacher’s strike at the Toronto elementary schools today.

There was apparently announcement at school yesterday that today there is a teacher’s strike. No phone calls to my home and no written notice from the school. The staff at the school told the kids.

Assuming that there would be no school I arranged for alternative day care (paid) for my son for the whole day today. Drove occasionally by the school this morning and saw 5 kids at 8.25 waiting for school. Pooled over and asked them why are they there as today there should be no school. Apparently there was announcement this morning that the strike is cancelled and today is normal school day.
I drove to the day care, picked by son, drove home, picked his homework, drove back to school with my son, was there before 9. My son’s teacher was not there so the school was trying to organize mixed classes sending the few kids that showed to school to the gym. Very few teachers at the school (even though they are supposed to be there in the case of a strike).
No notice in any way that the strike is cancelled.

I had to visit the office with a ‘late to school’ case. I was made feeling guilty by the administrative staff, as apparently it is parent’s responsibility to listen to the news every morning and in case of a strike cancellation bring kids to school. So I am guilty for not listening to the news this morning.

On the Ontario Teacher communication efficiency: There were no more than 5 percents at the kids at school today.
I paid for alternative care (wasted money), lost my time, was late to work and at the end felt guilty for being late…

My question is: Is it fair to be asked to pay taxes for the days in which you are not getting essential services?

#120 Mixed Bag on 01.11.13 at 12:48 pm

#54 Humpty Dumpty on 01.11.13 at 12:50 am

18Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six

—-

In my mind, I heard Vincent Price’s voice reading that line.
Even though the text is slightly different in the Iron Maiden version, nonetheless. Now I had to go play the song.

#121 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.11.13 at 12:50 pm

Dr Wayne sez…

“I’d rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobo_____ …uh…oops…. too late…”

#122 Mixed Bag on 01.11.13 at 12:55 pm

#96 Eaglebay – Parksville on 01.11.13 at 9:33 am

#25 JSS on 01.10.13 at 11:15 pm
“Amanda Lang is sooooo hot”

You people must be blind and hard up.
My neighbour’s horse is better looking.
Have a second look.

Pls send pic of mare. — Garth

Garth you kill me. Can’t stop laughing.

#123 claudius emperor on 01.11.13 at 12:57 pm

111 The American,

What is your prediction on the average decline in RE values in Canada?

I am thinking: between 50 and 60 % on average, minimum 35 % at ‘top locations’

#124 happy renter on 01.11.13 at 1:10 pm

We’ve heard, year after year that rates are going up.Japan’s goverment says that to their citizens.Like I said before the U.S. can’t service its debt with higher rates,so Canada won’t either because our currency will rise and make our exports less attractive.So look for a rate cut later this year.

#125 Hoof-Hearted on 01.11.13 at 1:12 pm

#68 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.11.13 at 1:52 am

China is a mystery economy, I don’t believe much of what I read in either extreme.

What I see Chinas role in geo -politics is this: The US is a spent force, its middle class will be gutted. Once you have no middle class, it is a de-facto communist country.

Chinas role was to be a sponge…to absorb the middle calls jobs via being the new manufacturing base and create a collapse in many western countries. All that is left is a paper shuffling economy = ponzi schemes.

The crack cocaine of easy credit had everyone believing they were wealthy, which kept them distracted from paying attention to the rug getting pulled from under them.

I haven’t heard about China absolving itself of Communism. Its standing military is over 2 million. If the population gets out of hand..the fist will come down. Right now its communist “light”.

I believe China is a proxy for the Global Elites…it is stockpiling this and that to rig commodity markets and perhaps dump them to create a market crash.

Overall,Once the Western countries collapse, then China has done its job.

#126 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.11.13 at 1:17 pm

#110Jaco Joubert on 01.11.13 at 11:09 am
Does anybody know here I can get a feed of new MLS listings? Similar to what you can get at http://tosold.ca

That site http://tosold.ca is an independent brokerage owned site. Any REALTOR® can provide you the same service. Simply contact your preferred REALTOR® in the area you wish to buy and/or sell and ask them if they would be willing to set up and Auto-email MLS Property Search for you based on the criteria of that particular property you want to buy and/or sell. If you want to be kept informed of recent sales they can do that for you too. They can narrow it down, based on the criteria you wish (number of bedrooms, bathrooms, house style etc) to a specific neighbourhood, street or even a specific property address if you wish.

Each time a listing is listing, amended or sold matching your stated criteria you will automatically be emailed immediately at that moment the details of that particular transaction.

Yes you have to go through a REALTOR® to have this done. What? You think we create these tools for you to have free access to? Ya that’s it we are some nonprofit organization funded by some government agency.

Grab a brain, the only reason you have http://www.realtor.ca is because we created it, on our dime. We created the MLS® not for you but for us to share information on our listings with co-operating brokerages. The MLS® is the oldest, most successful networking site on earth. With the advent of the internet we saw the movement away from print to online marketing and we created http://www.realtor.ca as a vehicle for our membership to advertise their listings to you through that medium. http://www.realtor.ca is an advertising medium nothing more. The MLS® system is not a service it is a “SYSTEM” owned and operated by CREA the intent of which is through which REALTORS® can share their listings with co-operating brokerages. It is a kind of proprietary networking site that helps REALTORS® better market their product to one another not you directly.

Get it now?!?

I thought not.

#127 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.11.13 at 1:17 pm

#110Jaco Joubert on 01.11.13 at 11:09 am
Does anybody know here I can get a feed of new MLS listings? Similar to what you can get at http://tosold.ca

That site http://tosold.ca is an independent brokerage owned site. Any REALTOR® can provide you the same service. Simply contact your preferred REALTOR® in the area you wish to buy and/or sell and ask them if they would be willing to set up and Auto-email MLS Property Search for you based on the criteria of that particular property you want to buy and/or sell. If you want to be kept informed of recent sales they can do that for you too. They can narrow it down, based on the criteria you wish (number of bedrooms, bathrooms, house style etc) to a specific neighbourhood, street or even a specific property address if you wish.

Each time a listing is listing, amended or sold matching your stated criteria you will automatically be emailed immediately at that moment the details of that particular transaction.

Yes you have to go through a REALTOR® to have this done. What? You think we create these tools for you to have free access to? Ya that’s it we are some nonprofit organization funded by some government agency.

Grab a brain, the only reason you have http://www.realtor.ca is because we created it, on our dime. We created the MLS® not for you but for us to share information on our listings with co-operating brokerages. The MLS® is the oldest, most successful networking site on earth. With the advent of the internet we saw the movement away from print to online marketing and we created http://www.realtor.ca as a vehicle for our membership to advertise their listings to you through that medium. http://www.realtor.ca is an advertising medium nothing more. The MLS® system is not a service it is a “SYSTEM” owned and operated by CREA the intent of which is through which REALTORS® can share their listings with co-operating brokerages. It is a kind of proprietary networking site that helps REALTORS® better market their product to one another not you directly.

Get it now?!?

I thought not.

#128 Frankie le skank on 01.11.13 at 1:21 pm

So the buying opportunity you speak of will happen at the end of february after the final fiscal cliff debate?

#129 Andrew on 01.11.13 at 1:29 pm

DA,

Moved on from yesterday’s discussion so I missed your latest frothing at the mouth rant from yesterday.

Here’s a highlight from post #169:

“You need to understand that we know how to work the market whatever it may be. Get someone to work it for you or have it worked against you.”

Yeah you work the market alright, but not so fast genius. It’s been a fish in the barrel market these last few years and all realtors have done is cheerlead the steaming masses into making the worst financial decisions of their lives.

I’ll say it kindly and sincerely, get help.

#130 Smoking Man on 01.11.13 at 1:48 pm

Rates are going no where but down, and this usa turnaround is a head fake, brought to you by Obama stats and beloved msm.

The machine is trying to get the herd running, by creating a sense of jump on the train before it leaves the station.

Before stuff happens the herd will research items and it will show on Google trends……

As a plan B we better get the guns……

Machine has never been so nervous…….

#131 Patiently Waiting on 01.11.13 at 1:50 pm

Here are this mornings stats from the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. So far this month Year over Year sales are down 34%, month over month sales are down 44% …

FVREB STATS – as of January 11, 2013
7 of 22 Working Days
JANUARY 2013 Listings 801 Sales 156
DECEMBER 2012 Listings 421 Sales 281
JANUARY 2012 Listings 843 Sales 237

pw

#132 Southern Ontarian on 01.11.13 at 1:53 pm

#121 claudius emperor

Very good question. Go to your municipality’s web site, or look at your last tax bill, to find out the portion of your property tax that is the Education Levy. Divide that by the number of school days, and subtract that amount from your next property tax payment. Be sure to include a note explaining why, and to let us know afterwards how it works out.

#133 jeff on 01.11.13 at 1:54 pm

Hi Garth
It doesn’t take an expert to say interest rates will rise.That’s overstating the obvious when they’re at the bottom. If you believe the job numbers coming out of the Bureau of labor statistics, I can see why you think the economy is picking up, and interest rates are about to go up soon. I’m sorry to inform you that these people are delusional, as are most economists.
No one seems bothered by the fact that the U.S. is adding 85 billion a month to keep this ponzi scheme going, which equals $1060.00 a month for every american family.
Also a rate hike of 1% would add 1.6 trillion in interest for the american taxpayer. Aint gonna happen !
Let me clarify that, Aint gonna happen til the fat lady sings, and i can hear her warming up. That will be the end game. They are doing their best to keep rates down, by printing all the money they can out of thin air, and buying bonds ( the fed ) and mortgage backed securities. Then interest rates will go up so the can forclose on millions more and own it all.
This will be the end game.
But what do I know — i’m just a carpenter.
have a nice day

#134 Form Man on 01.11.13 at 2:01 pm

DA

your panic is becoming more noticeable. your rantings even more absurd than ever. listen to Andrew……….

#135 Blacksheep on 01.11.13 at 2:05 pm

};-) aka D.A. # 60,

“My point? Rising interest rates will happen, they’ve got to, eventually. But in the long run it’s not going to make as much difference as you people think.”
———————————————————
What’s reason has been given for the 30% reduction in home sales, in many locations? Bankers and Real-estate agents claim it’s due to lending rules / terms being tightened by Flaherty. When the masses ability to qualify / service debt becomes reduced, so does # of first time / move up, sales along with prices.

The Demand VS Supply equation applies to all things, be it houses, hookers, hondas.

take care
Blacksheep

#136 DM in C on 01.11.13 at 2:07 pm

Really, now we have to read double BOLD postings by DA? Bad enough he promises to leave and never does.

#137 Sebee on 01.11.13 at 2:16 pm

No. — Garth

It seem that if RE tanks, it is only a responsible thing for the government to ensure growth and employment in another area of the economy or we face a real mess. The main area that can pick up the slack is the slowing manufacturing where we have capacity if only there was demand. And the way to make manufacturing more competitive is to lower the prices through currency devaluation. You hear the sector moan about the uncompetitive dollar all the time.

Currency in circulation has increased two fold in a short period of time recently. With US represenging about 10% of Canada in most things; population, sales of things, etc. and with Canadian currency representing only 5% of US currency in circulation, it seems the Canadian government has some reserve room there to move and devalue CAD$ by printing. Helps out manufacturing, and through a short burst of inflation perhaps also helps to hold the RE prices as a secondary benefit. Wouldn’t be pretty to those with cash, but really?…completely out of the question?

#138 sciencemonkey on 01.11.13 at 2:20 pm

@120: and $46,000 of credit card debt. Who does that?! Although colour me amazed that they only spend $100 total on phone and internet. I would expect them each to have $100 smartphone plans.

#139 Tri State Pat on 01.11.13 at 2:22 pm

From today’s Globe and Mail. Wow.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/pace-of-housing-starts-slows-in-december/article7096106/

“The upshot is that too many housing units have and are still being
build, excesses that will eventually upset the balance of demand and
supply,” Mr. Madani warns.

“We will stand by our long held view that home prices are likely to fall by
around 25 per cent over the next year or two.”

Chew on that for a while all you real estate industry experts who deny everything until they find another job in another sector (think burgers and the verb flipping)

#140 DR. WAYNE on 01.11.13 at 2:23 pm

The ‘real’ Amanda Lang :

DELETED

#141 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.11.13 at 2:34 pm

#131Andrew on 01.11.13 at 1:29 pm
DA,

Moved on from yesterday’s discussion so I missed your latest frothing at the mouth rant from yesterday.

Here’s a highlight from post #169:

“You need to understand that we know how to work the market whatever it may be. Get someone to work it for you or have it worked against you.”

Yeah you work the market alright, but not so fast genius. It’s been a fish in the barrel market these last few years and all realtors have done is cheerlead the steaming masses into making the worst financial decisions of their lives.

I’ll say it kindly and sincerely, get help.

Gotta love how the Blog Dawgs accuse me of “SPINNING” things yet every post I ever write gets “SPUN” by one or more of them like that which Andy just did to my last.

Andy, clearly, you know what my message was. Obviously you were disturbed by its truth that you felt compelled to strike out the only way you could.

I can’t compete with you in that regard, no way, no how. This is your arena the cards are stacked against me.

But what I will tell you is; each time you do such as you did, it incents me to come back for more. I’m a fighter Andy and a persistent SOB at that. I’m a scrapper. It’s honed in me by the very need to be so by the competitive business I’m in.

The stats are that I endure no less than 16 rejections for each accolade I need to proceed. Each and every “No” gets me closer to that sought after “Yes”. I regale in each “No”. I thrive on rejection. It’s my business. And my business requires that I be thick skinned because to the neophyte there is one hell of a lot of rejection in this business. That’s why so many can’t cut it. Bt to me “No” simply means you just don’t understand. So I’ll just keep on keepin’ on until you finally get it real plain, clear and simple like.

So twist my words to mean something more akin to your prejudicial misconceptions it merely motivates me to continue to explain knowing eventually you will get it. Now understand though, that might not be before it’s too late for you to benefit by the lessons I am trying to teach here.

I do apologize though for lacking the writing skills that might able me to compose a more compelling and understood message. Obviously I suck at blogging.

Devil’s Advocate };-)

#142 squidly77 on 01.11.13 at 2:39 pm

129 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 01.11.13 at 1:17 pm

Grab a brain, the only reason you have http://www.realtor.ca is because we created it, on our dime. We created the MLS® not for you but for us

Talk about lack of customer consideration, do you sir not profit 5% when you sell a house that a potential buyer had viewed on YOUR (Its all mine) MLS.

Do car dealerships purchase land and construct dealerships for their benefit or for my benefit ?

Does the Hudson Bay Company build stores for my benefit or theirs ?

Like every business out there they have to invest their own money and sometimes lots of it in order to put other peoples cash in their pockets.

Yes the real estate market needs realtors, however, loud, obnoxious and insulting ones like yourself poison the entire pot on a national level.

You see sir, the majority of people that read housing blogs are actual people that show an interest in the housing market and I would bet most have a vested reason to do so.

Luckily for you and everyone else that works within the REIC, you make up the vast minority.

#143 Suede on 01.11.13 at 2:40 pm

69 Oakville Owner

Depends on your situation amigo. Are you close to paying it off?

Do you have a liquid portfolio where you can dump some cash in upon renewal?

What is your penalty if you break the mortgage?

#144 Doug in London on 01.11.13 at 2:43 pm

Great picture, it would go well with Fire by Rammstein!

#145 DR. WAYNE on 01.11.13 at 2:52 pm

#136 DR. WAYNE on 01.11.13 at 2:23 pm

The ‘real’ Amanda Lang :

DELETED

=================

Ya … I guess you’re right in doing so … so many prudes here. But … a loonie says you chuckled.

#146 squidly77 on 01.11.13 at 2:54 pm

137 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 01.11.13 at 2:34 pm

I’m a fighter Andy and a persistent SOB at that. I’m a scrapper. It’s honed in me by the very need to be so by the competitive business I’m in.

I thrive on rejection. It’s my business. And my business requires that I be thick skinned because to the neophyte there is one hell of a lot of rejection in this business. That’s why so many can’t cut it. Bt to me “No” simply means you just don’t understand.

Who cares if you like to scrap and fight, seriously man, who the hell cares ?

DA, your on the wrong blog man. You sound like an Edmonton Oiler fan spouting off and bragging that the Oilers will severely kick the Flames but on a Calgary Flames blog.

Ain’t never gonna work man, never.

#147 GTA Engineer on 01.11.13 at 2:56 pm

The US economy is in the middle of an awakening which every month is adding jobs, more real estate sales and consumer confidence. The re-elected president just won the fiscal cliff fight against a bunch of Republicans still wondering where their manhood went. The S&P 500 has re-established a five-year high after climbing 13% in 2012. US corporate profitability is at near-record levels and grew 12% in the last quarter. Even in little Canada we saw about 40,000 jobs created last month, where an American renaissance has an immediate impact.

—————-

Oh my goodness Garth, I see the koolaid is still being passed around. I’ve been quiet, patiently waiting for the markets to start correcting, and I wait to this day.. but I’d like to point out how each of the assertions above is flawed:

1) “US economy is in the middle of an awakening which every month is adding jobs.”. Yes, but the population is increasing as well. And most months, job growth does not keep pace with population growth. The headline unemployment numbers are also misleading due to the way labour participation rates are calculated.
2) “more real estate sales” -> maybe in a few select speculative markets. But overall clouds remain.
3) “more…. consumer confidence” -> where?? Confidence has fallen the last few months and is at best flat when averaged over 2012: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence
4) “Fiscal cliff” -> It wasn’t won. It was lost. Paltry tax hikes with no spending cuts addressed. Deficits keep ballooning and the debt ceiling is under 2 months away.
5) “The S&P 500 has re-established a five-year high” -> you said it yourself before, why invest in an asset with lots of risk? At these prices, too much risk.
6) “US corporate profitability is at near-record levels and grew 12% in the last quarter”. Come on, really? Yes, profits grew – that’s true but headline brainwashing. They grew because companies cut costs. Revenues are *falling*, and there can only be so many cost cuts before you can’t compensate for there just not being enough sales. In real estate, sales come first, then prices. In the corporate world, sales fall first, then profits, because companies can to some degree offset falling sales with cost cuts. Conveniently, items like layoff severance are left out of profit figures because they’re considered “one time charges”.

Things aren’t as rosy as the headlines make them appear. Broad based sales are still declining. Jobs are not coming back – barely keeping pace with inflation. Europe is stagnating. Canadian exports down 19% due to Europe (news from this morning). The worst is yet to come..

Yes, I know – gloom and doom – but smile, it’s Friday!

Be fearful. You only injure yourself. — Garth

#148 Timing is Everything on 01.11.13 at 3:03 pm

#111 The American – said “Nearly EVERYONE in Canada has a variable rate mortgage…”

You are just plain–>wrong.

‘Fixed mortgage rates are more popular and represent 66% of all mortgages in Canada.’ – ratehub.ca

http://tinyurl.com/7qx4qb8

‘Vast majority now favour fixed-rate mortgages’

http://tinyurl.com/cpozxhd

#149 Canadian Watchdog on 01.11.13 at 3:04 pm

#129 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate

Realtors will soon find themselves begging for open data to stop wasting their time running around on dead end deals. There won’t be any benefit to limiting data from buyers. REALTORS® has lacked in innovation and are still trying to preserve a caveman system that will eventually (like radio) fade if nothing is changed.

The only thing that protects MLS® and REALTORS® is the rule of law. For those who don’t know, it was the Department of Justice that sued NAR to make data available to third-party listing services, not NAR’s willingness.

#150 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.11.13 at 3:25 pm

#144 squidly77 on 01.11.13 at 2:39 pm

You are right! You get it! Good for you! Well in part you do
Of course we developed the MLS system with an eye toward the end gain to be had by servicing prospect customer wants and or needs. Just like the car dealer who buys that acreage they need to open up shop. But don’t confuse our tools with our storefront nor our intellectual property rights with public domain. (It will be interesting to see how Andrew SPINS that one I just lobbed into his court…)

Really squidly do you really believe that I am so naïve as to not understand the limited life of a business the neglects customer service? Don’t mistake my manner on this pathetic blog as being any indication of how I treat my clients whether you believe it or not.

Seriously this is an anonymous internet forum where posters can assume any identity the might like to fabricate. For all you know I may not be a REALTOR® at all. My moniker is, remember, Devil’s Advocate after all.

I especially like you comment…

You see sir, the majority of people that read housing blogs are actual people that show an interest in the housing market and I would bet most have a vested reason to do so.

…which really does speak volumes and if you think about it really does disclose the real hidden agenda of most who post here. Eventually all that pent up demand is going to hit the market. The longer it takes the harder it’s going to hit.

};-)

#151 Snowboid on 01.11.13 at 3:52 pm

#136 Form Man on 01.11.13 at 2:01 pm…

I believe the rambling must be a result of pressure caused by joining ranks with the renter clan, it has been 3 months since he posted this:

“…BTW, we are soon embarking upon our plan to sell our paid for family home, invest the money in a revenue generating property and use the income to pay for the rented roof over our head, wherever that may be, in whatever country it might be in. So I am
really not so opposed to renting under the right circumstances…”

(From Greater Fool – Perspective October 3rd, 2012)

#152 Snowboid on 01.11.13 at 3:59 pm

#148 squidly77 on 01.11.13 at 2:54 pm…

Don’t forget this poignant explanation for continuing to haunt this blog, post # 40 from:

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/08/07/war-zone/

#153 Snowboid on 01.11.13 at 4:08 pm

Back to real estate…

Here is some of the recent Central Okanagan foreclosures courtesy of one local agent…

http://www.romrealty.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Kelowna-Foreclosures-.pdf

and

http://www.romrealty.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Foeclosures-dec10-dec22-2012.pdf

#154 claudius emperor on 01.11.13 at 4:15 pm

150 Timing is Everything
————————-
Fixed for 5 years. If your numbers are correct: Out of these 66 % 14 % has to be renewed each year. With the variable it adds to almost 50 % – mortgages that would have different/higher interest rate in the next year….

Fixed are the mortgages for 30 years/majority in the states my friend.

#155 JayDee on 01.11.13 at 4:17 pm

Great article from Zerohedge…back in November

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-05/guest-post-canadas-housing-bubble-different

#156 };-) aka D.A. on 01.11.13 at 4:31 pm

#148squidly77 on 01.11.13 at 2:54 pm

DA, your on the wrong blog man. You sound like an Edmonton Oiler fan spouting off and bragging that the Oilers will severely kick the Flames but on a Calgary Flames blog.

Ain’t never gonna work man, never.

Thing of it is; I’m the guy who is up to the task of trying. And more to the point; I believe you will, not so long from now as you think, learn for yourself, one way or another, that you maybe should have heeded my words with a little more consideration.

As was written to me;

”As much as I like Garth’s writing style and award winning information his bias and deceptive conclusions do very little to service the neophyte and slightly seasoned members of his audience. Actually, I’ll revise that, he disservices this part of his audience by taking advantage of their naivety and pitting it against his target of the day.”

I do believe to be true and I believe Garth would agree to some degree. Garth has often chastised many a Blog Dawg for being too gloom and doom. Garth has had to point of to many of the Blog Dawgs that there will be no crash. Garth has had to remind Blog Dawgs of his own more realistic projections for price capitulation that those the Dawgs Bark. Garth himself calls this a “pathetic blog”.

I am sure Garth too occasionally whips up the furor amongst the Dawgs as a background rallying chant to his message de jour. And the Dawgs fall for it hook, line and sinker day in and day out.

I honestly believe that were he forced to, off record, Garth would be compelled to agree with me more than the average Blog Dawg.

There are intelligent people who frequent this pathetic blog and they know who they are, but the rest… you need to listen to me at least consider what I say as having an inkling of validity you should consider. Take time to think about what I say instead of letting your prejudicial preconceptions lead you to believe it what you want to believe as lies from the darkside.

#157 claudius emperor on 01.11.13 at 4:32 pm

139 Sebee
Currency in circulation has increased two fold in a short period of time recently. With US representing about 10% of Canada in most things; population, sales of things, etc. and with Canadian currency representing only 5% of US currency in circulation, it seems the Canadian government has some reserve room there to move and devalue CAD$ by printing. Helps out manufacturing, and through a short burst of inflation perhaps also helps to hold the RE prices as a secondary benefit. Wouldn’t be pretty to those with cash, but really?…completely out of the question?
—————————-

It for sure would be great for my silver…

What you are not accounting for is the inflation.
If all the problems could be fixed by printing money….

1. You proposal will kill the finances of almost all the retirees.
2. Excessive printing (so you could keep up with your mortgage payments) will bring not inflation but eventually hyperinflation.
In hyperinflation the last thing you worry about is houses. Energy, food will become most valuable.
3. NOBODY will sell you anything. You would not be able to import anything.
We already had pretty high hidden inflation in the last years that will make it impossible for most people to practically retire.

Financial oppression with higher inflation and zero interest rates will save the banks but kill the economy.
We would be moving slowly in the future from credit driven to sound money/earned wealth driven economy. If it happens to go through hyperinflation (so you get free ride with your home) so be it. My silver and P.M. and world diversified portfolio will thrive.

There is no free lunch. Nothing is free except the cheese in the mousetrap.

#158 claudius emperor on 01.11.13 at 4:40 pm

139 Sebee
———————–
Money is just a media of exchange.

More money printed means you are stealing from the savers. It does not mean more productivity. Society gets richer through productivity gains.

Your proposal basically implies: Let’s keep stealing for the savers so we (debtors) get free ride.

This could fly for a while. Until all the fools (savers) eventually die or educate themselves and stop holding cash.

Then the big fun begins.

We might be very close to that point, much closer than anyone thinks.

I have seen hyperinflation with my own eyes and the experience is nothing that you could even imagine.

I am prepared for it. Are you?

#159 };-) aka D.A. on 01.11.13 at 4:53 pm

#151Canadian Watchdog on 01.11.13 at 3:04 pm

#129 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate

Realtors will soon find themselves begging for open data to stop wasting their time running around on dead end deals. There won’t be any benefit to limiting data from buyers. REALTORS® has lacked in innovation and are still trying to preserve a caveman system that will eventually (like radio) fade if nothing is changed.

The only thing that protects MLS® and REALTORS® is the rule of law. For those who don’t know, it was the Department of Justice that sued NAR to make data available to third-party listing services, not NAR’s willingness.

Watchdog, clearly, you don’t have all the facts nor have an understanding of the crux of the matter or the misunderstandings that led to it. I encourage you to research it some more.

Those of us (REALTORS®) who truly understand the business, and too few of us actually do, understand it is the service we provide – knowing how to use the tools not the tools themselves. A tool can be a most destructive thing if you don’t know how to use it. Ask Form Man, I’m sure he, like me, has seen his share of carnage due to inept power tool operation.

THE PLUMBER AND THE HOMEOWNER

A homeowner’s hot water heater stops heating water.

The homeowner calls a plumber and says: “My hot water tank isn’t heating my hot water can you come take a look?”

Plumber responds: “Sure, it will be a $75.00 service call charge for that.”

Homeowner says: “No problem. When can you be here?”

Plumber shows up at 3:00 as agreed, takes a look at the hot water tank, turns to his tool box and pulls out a rubber mallet then strikes the tank, immediately upon which the pilot light starts working, the burner comes on and starts heating water.

Homeowner says: “Fantastic! How much do I owe you?”

Plumber responds: “$150.00”

Homeowner exclaims: “$150.00!!! You said a service call was just $75.00.”

Plumber replies: “That is correct”

Homeowner exclaims even louder: “Then why $150.00 all you did was hit the tank with a rubber mallet.”

Plumber politely answers: “That is correct. $75.00 for the service call and $75.00 for knowing exactly where to hit the tank with the rubber mallet. That will be $150.00 please.”

Moral of the story…. It’s not the tools it’s knowing how to use them

#160 Toronto_CA on 01.11.13 at 4:56 pm

#150 Timing is Everything on 01.11.13 at 3:03 pm

A 5 year fixed rate mortgage IS a variable mortgage to an American (the person you responded to), you realize? They have 15 and 30 year fixed mortgages where the rate is unchanging for those 15 and 30 years unless the homeowner decides to refinance. Compared to that, a typical Canadian with a “fixed” mortgage where the rate changes after 5 years is variable.

#161 brainsail on 01.11.13 at 4:56 pm

#150 Timing is Everything on 01.11.13 at 3:03 pm

#111 The American – said “Nearly EVERYONE in Canada has a variable rate mortgage…”

“You are just plain–>wrong.”

In Canada, if you have a 25 year mortgage, you cannot get a fixed rate for the 25 year duration. The maximum is 10 years at a premium over a 5 year term then you have to reset to current rates. US “Conventional Mortgages”, which the majority have, the interest rate remains the same from year 1 to year 25. Also, if during that 25 year period, mortgage rates drop, you are allowed to remortgage by law at the lower rate without any interest penalties.

#162 Penny Henny on 01.11.13 at 5:06 pm

Stoopid question.
Is GDP really increasing our is it higher this year simply because of inflation?
If GDP increased by 2% and inflation was 2%, does not the later negate the former.
And would this not mean the growth has stalled??

Penny Henny

#163 Hoof-Hearted on 01.11.13 at 5:11 pm

BC Assessors accused of unfairly inflating home sizes

http://www.richmondreview.com/news/186235991.html?mobile=true

QUOTE:

Shirley Paulenko just about panicked when she opened her property assessment to find the value of her South Surrey house had soared 43 per cent in a single year.

The $450,000 jump in her assessment to more than $1.5 million would mean a big jump in the recently widowed senior’s property tax bill.

“I was so flabbergasted,” Paulenko said. “I lost a night’s sleep. I thought, ‘holy man, how could this possibly be going up by this much money?’ ”

Her son looked at the assessment notice for the two-storey home near 140 Street and 26 Avenue and found the answer.

It showed she lives in what friends now joke is the “mushroom house” – a 1,746-sq.-ft. first floor with a giant 8,791-sq.-ft. second storey somehow perched on top.

BC Assessment says a typing error added a fourth digit for the second floor by mistake.
===============================

QUOTE:

But it’s not the only case where residents in the region are complaining about either errors or unusual changes in the assessment authority’s calculation of their house size.

“I think there’s going to be a whole pile of these errors,” said Surrey accountant Cindy Konkin.

She and her husband are appealing their Newton house’s 8.6-per-cent assessment increase to $554,000 because it shows what they say is a fictitious 1,100-sq.-ft. increase in the size of the home.

In the Konkins’ case, BC Assessment is holding firm on its determination of the value, saying the first floor is now designated as living space, rather than basement.

“Nothing’s changed here in 23 years,” Konkin said. “They could look through our window and see it’s an unfinished basement.”

Even excluding the first-floor revision, the Konkins say BC Assessment inexplicably added more than 200 square feet to the footprint of the main floor.

Meanwhile, Konkin has checked the assessments of eight other homes on their block of 77A Avenue off of144 Street and found the square-footage numbers have all changed – some by a few feet, others by several hundred.

In only one case she’s aware of is the change justifiable because of the finishing of a basement.

“Without looking at very many, we’ve found there are errors,” Konkin said. “How many people have got theirs and are up $20,000 or $30,000 and just think it happened to everybody? Now they’re all going to be charged more.”

===================================

QUOTE:

Chris Danchuk, deputy area assessor for South Fraser, said BC Assessment hasn’t seen any spike in complaints about errors relating to home sizes.

But he said the sizes of all homes have been reviewed over the past two years using aerial photos and corrections have been made in many cases.

“We can go in and look at a house from four different angles and see if there have been any changes to the property,” he said.

In other words, owners who have built illegal additions to their homes without a building permit can now expect to have the extra space added to their assessment and see their tax bill to the city go up accordingly.

Danchuk said assessors used to walk down the street knocking on doors, but “often people weren’t home, didn’t let us in, or wouldn’t give us any information.”

====================================

Assessments from outer space ?

Like Garth said…these Local Gov’ts are getting more and more desperate for cash.

This may also be bait….some suckers will take it and let BC Assessment into their homes and then they really go to town.

#164 Penny Henny on 01.11.13 at 5:13 pm

To-#158};-) aka D.A. on 01.11.13 at 4:31 pm

There are intelligent people who frequent this pathetic blog and they know who they are, but the rest… you need to listen to me at least consider what I say as having an inkling of validity you should consider. Take time to think about what I say instead of letting your prejudicial preconceptions lead you to believe it what you want to believe as lies from the darkside.

To DA. Piece of advise.
Stop trying so hard and maybe more will listen.
You write so much that many just skip your posts.

And no, you don’t have respond to this too.

Penny Henny

#165 squidly77 on 01.11.13 at 5:20 pm

DA- Even if had a valid point, no one cares, no one at all.

Your to opinionated and self righteous. Qualities that appeal to very few.

You best open your eyes wide and not get carried away with your own brilliance. To do otherwise could and likely will be very, very expensive.

#166 };-) aka D.A. on 01.11.13 at 5:33 pm

Time for me to take a break as, I am sure you would agree, I’ve wasted too much time here of late.

But, as Arnold says…

#167 DR. WAYNE on 01.11.13 at 5:36 pm

#166 Penny Henny on 01.11.13 at 5:13 pm

=================

Jeeezzz … you’re even ‘more’ irritating than I …

#168 Andrew on 01.11.13 at 5:39 pm

DaBob,

Careful with the “Maybe I’m a Realtor, Maybe I’m not stuff’. Since you have already self-declared as such, this would make you a liar.

If this is the case, than your credibility rating would have to downgraded to an unprecedented low of less than zero.

#169 };-) aka D.A. on 01.11.13 at 5:41 pm

167squidly77 on 01.11.13 at 5:20 pm
DA- Even if had a valid point, no one cares, no one at all.

Your to opinionated and self righteous. Qualities that appeal to very few.

I prefer to think of it as a “conviction” to truth and moral obligation to help others understand that they may too see the light as in so doing together we learn and together we prosper. I can’t be successful without you being successful too. And, as you may know, you get what you give. ( yet another gimme lobbed Andrew’s way if he is quick enough on the uptake).

Common Andrew surely you must see the SPINNING retort opportunity in that one?

b>};-)

#170 Timing is Everything on 01.11.13 at 5:46 pm

#162 Toronto_CA

Fair enough and, yes, I realize that 5 year ‘fixed’ term to them would seem a sort of 5 year variable.

I speak Canadian…mostly.

Does anyone know how many Canadians are ‘locking-in’ for greater than 5 year ‘fixed’ these daze?
Canadian Watchdog?

#171 bill on 01.11.13 at 5:59 pm

DA Said : ”I honestly believe that were he forced to, off record, Garth would be compelled to agree with me more than the average Blog Dawg. ”

well if you held a gun on him ….Maybe
and average blog dog? whats that? could you explain that in a bit more detail? if you have the time. I wouldnt want you to sacrifice your busy day selling houses to all those eager buyers to explain that to us.

#172 Renter's Revenge! on 01.11.13 at 6:02 pm

To: #106 EIT on 01.11.13 at 10:42 am
“This growth is marred with mall-investment…” [SIC]

Bullish on REIT’s?

#173 squidly77 on 01.11.13 at 6:03 pm

171 };-) aka D.A. on 01.11.13 at 5:41 pm

I prefer to think of it as a “conviction” to truth and moral obligation to help others understand that they may too see the light as in so doing together we learn

You are coming off as a religious zealot. You need to take a long look in the mirror and ask yourself why you post on this blog.

#174 Andrew on 01.11.13 at 6:10 pm

DABob,

I guess if you leave the blogdog union with a credibility rating so low, we would have to consider you the “Greece” of this blog.

Why not stick around, tone down the crazy talk and maybe we can get that rating up a bit.

Maybe start with some sales numbers….

#175 squidly77 on 01.11.13 at 6:15 pm

Perhaps DA’s a shut in, a truly lonely person that has no one else to talk to. Perhaps DA’s only contact with the outside world is through this blog. I truly hope not, but how else can his obsession with ‘educating the masses’ be explained.

Kinda sad really.

#176 Form Man on 01.11.13 at 6:20 pm

#153 Snowboid

Interesting……

#177 betamax on 01.11.13 at 6:25 pm

#127 Hoof-Hearted: “I believe China is a proxy for the Global Elites…it is stockpiling this and that to rig commodity markets and perhaps dump them to create a market crash.”

China is a kleptocracy, and stockpiled commodities are used as collateral for further malinvestments and Ponzi credit for personal gain. No conspiracy needed.

#178 Freebird on 01.11.13 at 6:33 pm

If Mr Smokin’ Hot Fireman was also a great advisor…well NOW were talking! Brains and brawn! Save me from a burning building and the tanking housing market!

Going to get some water now…

#179 Ogopogo on 01.11.13 at 6:38 pm

Here is what you get for $1,395,000 in the San Fernando Valley in the Sherman Oaks neighborhood of Los Angeles:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/10/greathomesanddestinations/what-you-get-for-1395000.html?hp&_r=0

“It was built by a Hollywood set designer who incorporated parts of various sets throughout, including oak floors, wood-beam ceilings and columns. Through the front door — reached by a staircase leading down from a landscaped dooryard — is the living room, which has a fireplace. Sliding glass doors open to a patio and barbecue area. Adjoining the living room is a den with skylights. The kitchen was renovated with stainless-steel Sub-Zero and Wolf appliances within the past five years. The master suite, reached by a spiral staircase, takes up the second floor. It has a fireplace and private balcony, and its en-suite bathroom has a steam shower. The garage was converted to a recording studio and workshop.”

Now compare that to any Vancouver crack shack of similar price. Can REALTURDS© spell d-e-l-u-s-i-o-n?

#180 LaughingCon on 01.11.13 at 6:58 pm

RE #110 Jaco Joubert

Does anybody know here I can get a feed of new MLS listings? Similar to what you can get at http://tosold.ca
=====================================

Register and poke around http://www.theredpin.com
and you may like what you see there.

DA® be damned!

#181 Canadian Watchdog on 01.11.13 at 7:12 pm

#161 };-) aka D.A.

Those of us (REALTORS®) who truly understand the business, and too few of us actually do, understand it is the service we provide – knowing how to use the tools not the tools themselves.

Indeed you understand your business best, nobody disagrees. What you're not understanding (if you haven't noticed) is the customer's demand to access to the same information you use, which happens to be freely available in every developing country, but Canada. The value of your service is valued by the customer, not what you claim it to be.

Remember the days when investors had to use stock brokers to buy stocks? Or one had to book a trip with a travel agent? They too dominated the market at one point. Now look what happened years later. When any good or service becomes commoditized or other technological advancements exceeds its lack of re-innovation — its value will deminish. That is a fundamental law in any market place.

Remember that "new" is the biggest marketing selling point. Either innovate, or get crushed.

——-

I'll post this must read report again for those who missed it. Expert Report by Dr.Greg Vistnes PDF

132. Exhibits 3a-c show that there exists a very stable relationship among the largest corporate brokers, in that year after year, the majority (approximately 70 percent) of commission payments go to brokers that belong to just five corporate brokerages, with little change over time in the share or the rankings of those corporate brokerages.

#182 Blacksheep on 01.11.13 at 7:15 pm

Smoking man # 132,

Sound reasoning.

take care,
Balcksheep

#183 Don in the east kootneys on 01.11.13 at 7:29 pm

ref # 149

“yes, I know gloom and doom–but smile, its friday–”

“Be fearful, You only injure yourself”–Garth

I agree–I am more interested in Garths response then the actual comments–

Like Earl Nightingale said ” You become what you think about”

#184 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.11.13 at 7:37 pm

#127 Hoof-Hearted — “Overall,Once the Western countries collapse, then China has done its job.” — Well thought out and accurate response. Soros is enjoying himself now, but it’s not the end of the show yet.

#132 Smoking Man — “Machine has never been so nervous…….” — Tell us more (maybe on your blog?) Life is sure getting more and more interesting and entertaining!

#185 jess on 01.11.13 at 8:12 pm

PPI: Financial Ombudsman hires 1,000 as money complaints surge …
January 10 2013 | Emma Rowley | Finance

The Financial Ombudsman Service is to hire 1,000 extra staff to handle the “unprecedented” deluge of complaints over the payment protection insurance (PPI) mis-selling scandal, as it receives 5,000 new PPI cases a week

=======
OFT bars ‘oppressive’ RBS debt collecting

Home owners lose properties over £600 debts
Home owners could lose their properties due to debts as small as £600, the Office of Fair Trading has found.

An investigation by the regulator revealed four banks had told customers to pledge their homes against non-mortgage debt.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/8151392/Home-owners-lose-properties-over-600-debts.html

Home owners lose properties over £600 debts
Home owners could lose their properties due to debts as small as £600, the Office of Fair Trading has found.

#186 EIT on 01.11.13 at 8:13 pm

#174 Renter’s Revenge!

I was thinking excess consumption.

As for REIT’s
building science has….. scarred me

#187 Canadian Watchdog on 01.11.13 at 8:36 pm

#161 };-) aka D.A.

THE PLUMBER AND THE HOMEOWNER

The homeowner calls a plumber and says: “My hot water tank isn’t heating my hot water can you come take a look?”

 

It's not just real estate, we got water heater cartels too!

Competition Bureau Takes Action to Support Competition in Ontario’s Residential Water Heater Market

Following an extensive investigation, the Bureau determined that Direct Energy and Reliance each engaged in practices that intentionally suppress competition and restrict consumer choice. Specifically, each company implemented water heater return policies and procedures aimed at preventing consumers from switching to competitors. This anti-competitive conduct affects consumers, other rental water heater companies, and businesses that sell water heaters, such as home improvement centres.

#188 jess on 01.11.13 at 8:41 pm

why worry about social security

Americans also had the lowest probability over all of surviving to the age of 50

The 378-page study by a panel of experts convened by the Institute of Medicine and the National Research Council is the first to systematically compare death rates and health measures for people of all ages, including American youths. It went further than other studies in documenting the full range of causes of death, from diseases to accidents to violence. It was based on a broad review of mortality and health studies and statistics…
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-health-lags-the-developed-world-2013-1
=================

American men ranked last in life expectancy among the 17 countries in the study, and American women ranked second to last

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/us-health-lags-the-developed-world-2013-1#ixzz2HiWWgU1r

#189 espressobob on 01.11.13 at 9:17 pm

#169 PAYNE

WRONG!

#190 Smoking Man on 01.11.13 at 9:22 pm

#186 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.11.13 at 7:37 pm

Commenting on geo-politics is getting dangerous, going to be sticking to comedy, and teacher, and bubble head bashing…

but then again staring down a 18 year old bottle of single malt scottch, who knows what will flow from these fingers after this flu is history…..

#191 Country Girl on 01.11.13 at 9:24 pm

Canada gets highest ratings in The Economist’s “Home Truths” article at: econ.st/10lXxmo

“Overvaluation is especially marked in Canada, particularly with respect to rents (78%) but also in relation to income (34%). Mark Carney, the country’s central-bank governor, who is soon to jump ship to join the Bank of England, where he takes over from Sir Mervyn King in July, may have shown good market timing with his move to London as well as a deft hand in negotiating his lavish remuneration.”

#192 espressobob on 01.11.13 at 9:34 pm

#188, #174 and so on.

REIT’s unlike residential properties produce profits. RE ain’t my thing but I sure miss transglobe.

#193 Westernman on 01.11.13 at 9:54 pm

Smoking Man @ #192
“who knows what will flow from these fingers after this flu is history”
Hard to say, but one thing IS certain – it will be pure, unadulterated drivel, misspelled as usual…

#194 Devore on 01.11.13 at 10:01 pm

#34 T5>myT4

Robert Kiyosaki said so; …”Saving money will never make you rich”

Of course it won’t. You have to invest it. If you take his quote to mean spend all you earn and then borrow to spend some more, you certainly will never be rich.

Then again, he did default on 20+ million dollars of debt and declared bankruptcy, so I would take whatever he has to say with a grain of salt.

#195 Sebee on 01.11.13 at 10:01 pm

#160 claudius emperor

Your proposal basically implies: Let’s keep stealing for the savers so we (debtors) get free ride.

What exactly have we been doing? These Canadians in debt are too big to fail. US is playing games with some 1TR coin idea. RE got a boost, now higher inflation can save it along with manufacturing through cheap CAD$. No option seems to be off the table in modern world.

#196 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.11.13 at 10:01 pm

#192 Smoking Man on 01.11.13 at 9:22 pm

Can You make an appointment with Dr Wanker about being a living donor…..aka ….from the neck down?

The rest you can sublet as a storage unit.

#197 Devore on 01.11.13 at 10:05 pm

#65 The Prophet Elijah

Wonder how much Garth has been bought out for by the cartel

He’s laughing all the way to the bank, I can hear him in Vancouver, clear across Canada.

You would not believe the cost of keeping an Amazon these days. — Garth

#198 Big Fan of this Pathetic Blog on 01.11.13 at 10:13 pm

How you continue to make this topic sexy, Garth, is truly a wonder. Sometimes I give up on you because you seem to be having a bad day and becoming a downer…. but I keep coming back looking for a smile and a good read … I learn lots, thanks. Keep up the peckeretts, elfin deity bashing and working on your 6 pack abs… and thanks for the pic today, muchly appreciated…

#199 Sebee on 01.11.13 at 10:16 pm

By the way claudius emperor, no long term hyperinflation. Just a single one time hit to bring the currency down by 20% to .80 USD is what I am thinking. We’re not some third world country. Markets would adjust and believe the adjustment reasons, just like they accept explanations about long term rate direction. They would still want our resources, but would now have a 20% discount on manufacturing to boot. Investment, employment follows. Otherwise, right now manufacturing is going to US.

#200 LP on 01.11.13 at 10:17 pm

#185Don in the east kootneys on 01.11.13 at 7:29 pm
ref # 149

Like Earl Nightingale said ” You become what you think about”
********************************
Oh, someone said that a little earlier than Earl. As in…
the Bible from the Book of Proverbs chapter 23 verse 7, “As a man thinketh in his heart, so is he.”

#201 lee on 01.11.13 at 10:24 pm

#186 Where is your proof? CP24 makes no disclaimer that Al is making a paid advertisement. I would feel like quite the fool thinking CP24 is passing him off as some kind of chosen expert if in fact they are making money having him there..

#202 Freedom First on 01.12.13 at 2:17 am

#94 AK

Thanks for your reply…….I know your intentions were good, but I guess you didn’t understand the part where I said I was balanced, diversified and liquid. I don’t know how Garth deals with this day in and day out.

#203 TCH on 01.12.13 at 1:26 pm

#98 Live within your means,

Our renos are 98% done, it turned out great.
Anytime you are in the are, make sure you stop in and say hello