Delusions

delusions

Garth, I have always found you to be sympathetic to poor real estate unfortunates. This Silly Person© edition is unbecoming of you. These people contacted you in good faith. You have made them the butt of jokes. Honestly, I am very disillusioned. I thought you were a bigger person. – Blog comment.

Apparently not. In fact my email box bloated in the past few hours with notes from people who don’t mind being abused as long as it’s free. Like Jasmine, whose man should be arrested for making her do unseemly things. “My husband encouraged (forced) me to read your blogs,” she writes.  “I have been doing it for the past three months and have calmed down in nagging my husband about wanting to own a place.”

See, I serve a purpose. Honestly.

“But since you are accepting applications, I thought I seek your opinion.”

Go for it, Jazz.

“We got married 1.5 years ago.  My husband doesn’t believe in buying a place, so currently, we are renting in downtown Vancouver.  We have combined saving of $150,000 plus some assets in gold. We have a combined household income of $115,000.  Initially, our goal was to save one of our salaries but realistically it hasn’t happened yet. We plan to start a family soon and will need a bigger place.  Our families have been pressuring us to buy a place as the prices are coming down.  Since both of us work in downtown Vancouver, we don’t want to move to suburbs like Surrey where houses are cheaper but has longer commute.  Do you think prices in North Vancouver will come down in the near future? “

Good question, actually. It comes just hours after the biggest real estate pumping company in Canada, Royal LePage, said housing will basically suck this year. Prices in Toronto will “flatline” while they will tumble 3% in Vancouver in a “cyclical correction” that will last about as long as a Boomer’s lovemaking. And while there will be a “significant dampening effect” on housing nationally because of these markets, LePage boss Phil Soper claims, “fears of a sharp or drawn-out collapse are unwarranted.”

‘Sno big deal, he intones, since real estate prices have outstripped wage gains “for the last three years” and the market requires time to adjust.” A BMO economist largely agreed this week, as the bank predicts a 5% drop in the Mouldy City.

If this is so, then Jasmine and her dominator hubs are flat out of luck. Once wages recover a little and prices in Van decline to 97% of today’s levels, Soper suggests, up she goes again. Is this possible?

Well, the guy is right about national house values outstripping incomes, as this pathetic blog has oft detailed. In the last dozen years real estate inflated by almost 130% while household revenues grew by just a third of that. It would take a galloping economy, a tumble in unemployment and four yards of pixie dust to have incomes swell enough to justify home prices. But what Soper completely ignores is that housing horniness (for which he’s partly responsible) nudged home ownership up to 70%, those same families took on 180% more debt. We owe more now than the piteous Americans did the weekend before their real estate market started blowing up. So even if everybody gets a raise in 2013 the money will be sucked off into loan payments, not shoved into a down payment.

Nope. This is no cyclical correction. Nor will it be short. The simple fact 500,000 people turn 60 this year – and every coming year for most of a decade – guarantees house-heavy Boomers will be net sellers of real estate, after punting it higher for the past thirty years. Meanwhile I can comfortably predict any wage gains three years from now will be chomped away by higher interest rates. Soper and BMO are just doing what salesguys do. It’s called damage control.

So, Jazz, Van houses will indeed cost less a year from now. They will cost even less two years off. Already we have tumbling sales, negative momentum and detached prices which have corrected by double-digits. That’s the good news. The bad news is you won’t buy much of a place in North Van with just $150,000 down, unless you’re nuts enough to walk into a $700,000 mortgage. Then you’d have a house, a kid, an unrepayable debt and no other assets. Is that what you married the brute for?

The big price drops in major urban centres like Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal will not come in the demand areas. Sure, North Van, High Park or Westmount values might be 5% less in the summer and 10% lower next winter. But prices in Surrey, Milton and Laval could indeed fall sharply – by as much as a third. If you want to vultch in 2014, that’s where the bodies will be.

So in the meantime, don’t save your money. Invest it. You and the deviant have $51,000 TFSA room between you, which is a good place to start. Get it into exchange-traded funds pacing the S&P, the TSX, the real estate trust index and preferred share index, for starters. Find a fee-based advisor to set it up and run it, along with a joint non-registered account and enough RSPs to fund the home buyer’s plan and fatten up the down with a tax refund.

Also seriously delay having a family. Reading this nightly is a great start.

219 comments ↓

#1 purvish on 01.08.13 at 9:59 pm

first?!?

#2 TurnerNation on 01.08.13 at 10:02 pm

DA is annoying everyone ON and IN this blog.

#3 Something on 01.08.13 at 10:07 pm

Hey Garth,

Could you tell about Ottawa RE in one of your future posts?

Thanks.

#4 Mike on 01.08.13 at 10:11 pm

It is starting to sink in to some people here in Vancouver that their paper-wealth has started to evaporate … most will wake up however only after the tornado had passed.

#5 T.O. Bubble Boy on 01.08.13 at 10:14 pm

Also seriously delay having a family. Reading this nightly is a great start.

d’oh… my wife and I have had 2 kids since finding this blog years ago.

Garth – this definitely isn’t the anti-fertility recipe you claim it is.

Damn. — Garth

#6 T.O. Bubble Boy on 01.08.13 at 10:17 pm

Also, anyone who treats RE cartel press releases as news deserves to lose his or her shirt in the housing correction.

#7 Tim on 01.08.13 at 10:18 pm

“he big price drops in major urban centres like Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal will not come in the demand areas. Sure, North Van, High Park or Westmount values might be 5% less in the summer and 10% lower next winter.”

So, the correction you have been predicting for the past three years will have us at price levels higher than they were when you starting forecasting a correction

Have another drink and read the rest of the sentence. — Garth

#8 City that smells like it sounds on 01.08.13 at 10:19 pm

5th.

#9 Nick on 01.08.13 at 10:19 pm

Three breathless RE stories in a row on Van evening news.

Nope, no bubble here.

#10 Snowboid on 01.08.13 at 10:23 pm

#2 TurnerNation on 01.08.13 at 10:02 pm…

That’s his job, and he is good at it!

#11 Yuus bin Haad on 01.08.13 at 10:24 pm

My new favourite word: “delusional”. (Used to be “blubber”.)

#12 Maxamillion on 01.08.13 at 10:28 pm

Anyone ever watch Undercover Boss? Owners/presidents willing participate in this show exposing how clueless they are about their own business and it’s okay since that’s what we all expect. Silly Person© edition is the same thing. God bless you Garth!

#13 Hoof-Hearted on 01.08.13 at 10:35 pm

Can’t wait for that Star Wars a$$hole moment….where Dr. Wayne admits to Smoking Man she/he is his father…..or vice versa.

#14 Dee on 01.08.13 at 10:36 pm

Also seriously delay having a family.

Uh…shouldn’t you have some idea about the age of this couple before opining on whether delaying is even an option?

Huh? — Garth

#15 Simon Sez on 01.08.13 at 10:45 pm

4 years in reading this blog i am still amazed at the realtive ignorance/petty passive aggressiveness of the average Canadian.

#16 GTA Suburbanite on 01.08.13 at 10:47 pm

What about Oakville? Same as Milton? This town is way overpriced . . .

#17 Keswickian on 01.08.13 at 10:48 pm

A co- worker bought a house in GTA in 2007. They Paid about 500. They then spent about 200 thousand on a very high end kitchen, Hardwood, home gym and landscaping.

After a breakup in the relationship it went up For sale in the spring of 2010 for an asking 749.( break even point for them) They have not dropped the price once despite the sound of crickets.   when I asked about dropping the price to get it sold and move on  They said it will sell we just need to wait for the right buyer. There agent has told them they are 100 grand over priced.

This is a good a example of few things.

 1) people not willing to take a loss. 

2)people thinking that because they paid 500 for a house and spent  200 in renovations the house is now worth 700 and someone  else is going to pay them for the Renos they wanted. I blame HGTV for this one. 

3) sticky prices. These are people  that need to sell but will not take a loss.  This is going to take a long long  time to unwind.

#18 Bottoms_Up on 01.08.13 at 10:53 pm

Starting a family will drain your financial resources quicker than you think. Have you factored in your earnings through maternity leave, possibly extending your leave without pay, and then $1300/month for a daycare centre (or $900/month if you want to ‘cheap’ out with a home care) for 3 years before school starts (having a 2nd kid? Enjoy either $2600 or $1800/month childcare costs for the two of them).

On a family income of $115,000, probably should be aiming for a max mortgage of $300,000, enabling you to buy a place for slightly over $400,000. This probably doesn’t buy you much where you live.

My advice would be to leave town. You can move to many other Canadian cities where you can probably earn the same, but your cost of living will be drastically reduced where $400,000 houses are large and you’ll have lots of room to grow.

#19 Mark on 01.08.13 at 10:56 pm

Pushing REITs again Garth? Shame, shame… Everyone knows that they will suffer the same as residential real estate since its all real estate.

If I cared about you I’d explain it again. Fortunately… — Garth

#20 martin9999 on 01.08.13 at 10:59 pm

-We have combined saving of $150,000 plus some assets in gold-


i thought this is not a gold blog ?!?!

I see, sometimes your assss scratches too

#21 };-) aka D.A. on 01.08.13 at 11:00 pm

#193Form Man on 01.08.13 at 6:08 pm
#184 DA

Ok. for the last 3 years your ‘gut’ has been telling you a rebound was imminent. For the last 3 years the data has been telling me there is no rebound in site. For 3 years now you have been wrong. I will continue to trust the data over DA’s ‘gut’, and the data is telling me there is still no sign of a rebound …………

I provide raw statistical data to show what has been and what is happening. I might, at most share, based on that data, what I think is likely to happen over the course of the next six months max, nothing more. And I always qualified that what I say as only my opinion and that I have been wrong on predicting the future before but never in educating on the present.

I don’t have a crystal ball. All I’ve got is an applicable education and a lot of industry experience that my clients can rely upon to guide them from this day to the threshold of the next. I can discuss how “if this” or “if that” should happen it might affect the decision they are about to make today but I cannot say that “this will” or “that will” happen for sure or not.

No one knows the future, no one. Anyone who tells someone they do know what the future holds is a damned liar. Nothing is as despicable as a liar. Lies are like quicksand, they support nothing. Anyone who suggests another should speculate on one asset class falling and another rising without substantial disclaimer should be willing to as substantially share in the risk the other might take. Anyone who takes such advice is a damned fool who ought to have a ring put through their nose with a leash attached.

#22 EI Dude on 01.08.13 at 11:04 pm

Friends of mine here in the Lower Mainland live in a townhouse in a suburb. They bought a new construction SFH in a different suburb in September 2012. Move in date is around March. They still haven’t sold the townhouse. The kicker is that the townhouse strata does not allow rentals. They will have to drop the price significantly to sell it to compete with the other units for sale in the complex, or rent out the new house they bought until they sell. Ouch. I wish the best for them, but when you have a wish in one hand and $hit in the other, guess which one fills up the fastest?

#23 Smoking Man on 01.08.13 at 11:06 pm

I remeber you saying that indexing is not the way to go going forward but picking certain sectors, now you’re saying that buying ETF’s that mimic the sp500 and TSX are the way to go?

i need another drink!

Not only are you a fraud, you’re wrong. — Garth

#24 tkid on 01.08.13 at 11:09 pm

Jasmine, why not buy a vacation property – Florida or Arizona? Some nice 2 or 3 bedroom townhouse that will cost you $80,000 or less, with a communal pool, and lovely facilities. Fort Myers is nice, with good shopping, fab restaurants, and homes are less expensive than the east coast of Florida.

Then invite the in-laws, outlaws, parental units, etc yadda etc to visit. Gush over how nice the neighbours are, how much the unit cost ($240,000 units sold for $50,000), the lovely granite countertops and stainless steel appliances … and somewhere in the visit wonder out loud if this will happen to Canadian real estate.

Then continue to rent in Vancouver and wait. Those who waited 7 long years in Florida saved themselves $200,000.

But absolutely have the babies now.

#25 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 01.08.13 at 11:10 pm

@#17 Keswickian

You should tell your co-worker to stay with their spouse……

Its hard to find someone as stupid as oneself….

It may take them the rest of their financial lives……..

#26 };-) aka D.A. on 01.08.13 at 11:10 pm

From my softer more effeminate side;

People were created to be loved.

Things were created to be used.

The problem with the world today is;

it is things that are loved

and people that are being used. – author unknown

#27 Uh Oh Canada on 01.08.13 at 11:10 pm

Vancouver is full of a lot of fake millionaires- I should know, I’m related to a few.

#28 Dr. WAYNE on 01.08.13 at 11:14 pm

1 purvish on 01.08.13 at 9:59 pm

first?!?

==============

No question marks necessary … conclusively, you are the first mindless a$$hole (now the ! mark).

#29 not 1st on 01.08.13 at 11:17 pm

Garth??

“Defying a national trend toward a short-term softening of the national housing market in the first half of this year, prices in Regina are expected to keep rising in 2013.

A new report by national realtor Royal LePage says it expects average house prices in Regina to rise by another 4.0 per cent in the course of 2013, well ahead of the average 1.0 per cent increase expected across the country.

Particularly popular in Regina, for the second year in a row, will be standard two-story homes, which last year posted the largest average price increase across all housing types in Canada: at 16.8 per cent.

That put their average price by year’s end at $382,500″

It’s still Regina. — Garth

#30 PenDon on 01.08.13 at 11:20 pm

Has anyone ever heard of the banks renting out the houses after the owners walked? Just saw the third house that has done this in our small town 1.5 hrs north east of Toronto. If the banks are now the landlords , how does the bank settle the mortgage with the owner?

#31 Rob on 01.08.13 at 11:21 pm

Jazz, why would you live in Surrey. The houses are way over priced and the city grew so fast that the good/bad nieghborhoods are all mixed up. Check out the school reports for Surrey by Fraser Institute, most graded poor and worse in the future. Thats where your kids will be attending. What they want for a house there, forget it.

#32 goodtobetrue on 01.08.13 at 11:35 pm

DA…do you have a better buy tha 887 bullock?

#33 DogWalker on 01.08.13 at 11:39 pm

The people who are asking for advice these days seem to be more realistic. A while ago every person that was asking for advice was early twenties, making 100+Gs, wanting to know where they should invest their 400+Gs. Nice to see realistic scenarios lately..

#34 Snowboid on 01.08.13 at 11:44 pm

Here is a 2008 prediction from the great goldenpoodle – looks promising for Kelowna RE?

Postby Devil’s Advocate » Oct 11th, 2008, 8:36 am…

SFD median $700,000 in October 2015/16
Strata median $450,000 in October 2015/16

That is some wonky crystal ball!

#35 wes coast on 01.08.13 at 11:51 pm

We are on day 48 of straight rain (I made that up – but it sure feels like a fact). I can’t understand why anyone wouldn’t pay millions to live here.

#36 East Van on 01.08.13 at 11:53 pm

I sold my East Van condo in May 2010 for 359. I checked the 2013 BC assessment, and it is now assessed at 391. I dont see prices falling at all in the “working class” areas of Vancouver.

#37 Ryan Perich on 01.08.13 at 11:56 pm

after seeing the news clip…

does anyone, or Garth, have any link to anything said anywhere before a bubble bursts that

“real estate prices are NOT based on solid and good sustainable fundamentals” or something similar ?

other than of course…Garth’s posts, Kaizer report, whispers from the edge, and other such realist blogs. ? like a mainstream media ?

has it ever happened ? ever ? I’d love a post link

#38 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.08.13 at 11:57 pm

This blog needs an Express Lane…where the more intuitive and intellectual posts are posted ASAP without moderation.

PS: Dr. Wanker…move to the back of the bus and out of the emergency exit.

#39 };-) aka D.A. on 01.08.13 at 11:58 pm

#32 goodtobetrue on 01.08.13 at 11:35 pm
DA…do you have a better buy tha 887 bullock?

887 Bullock is a property I am very familiar with. Started out at $929,000 back in 2008, which it wasn’t worth even then BTW. It’s now a foreclosure priced at $679,000. The assessed value is $742,000, for what that’s worth. .33 of an acre at the end of the road against a steep bank to the northeast with a lot of trees around. A little dark. There have been many ad hoc renovations done over the years. I know the previous owner was in construction and while there is a lot of work to be done to bring it to its full potential most would, I think, be cosmetic.
Lots of potential buyers buzzing around it waiting for that first offer to be made and accepted by the bank which will then be a matter of public record that anybody can show up on court date and try outbid. And that is exactly how it will play out I am sure. In the heat of the frenzy it will likely sell for more than the list price.

Do I know of a better buy? Yes. By the time someone is done with that home they will likely be into it for close to a mil. The street barely supports the asking price right now. Yes, I know of some better buys.

If Garth will allow it you can contact me at [email protected]. If not I respect that and his moderator can delete this last line.

#40 AprilNewwest on 01.09.13 at 12:07 am

#36 – Don’t you know that that assessment is based on July 1 of last yr…..

#41 The Prophet Elijah on 01.09.13 at 12:08 am

In the video they say incomes remain the same but prices have doubled is the new normal, this is right up there with the RE lingo of being priced out for ever.

#42 45north on 01.09.13 at 12:09 am

Keswickian: After a breakup in the relationship it went up For sale in the spring of 2010 for an asking 749.( break even point for them) They have not dropped the price once despite the sound of crickets. when I asked about dropping the price to get it sold and move on They said it will sell we just need to wait for the right buyer. There agent has told them they are 100 grand over priced.

100 grand! which means it won’t sell. There’s a house on my street (in Ottawa), it is listed at $600 thousand which I’m guessing is the break even point. Crickets – there were crickets in September but now it’s too cold.

#43 Bernie in TO on 01.09.13 at 12:10 am

Garth, regarding ‘demand areas will be safe’, can you clarify what you mean by an ‘in demand’ area? We know that CMHC’s $1M rule has devastated sales for pricey TO homes (avg 416 SFH down ~15% since May, brutal even if seasonally adjusted). I’ve also noticed a surge of ‘for lease’ postings on MLS for these upper end properties. Is it possible that ‘owners’ in ‘Demand Hoods’ such as Leaside are actually leveraged at least as much as those in the burbs? It’s plausible considering how values skyrocketed there following the onslaught of emergency rates. If so, it’s precisely these ‘in demand’ hoods that will be hardest hit by the new regs; it’s not different in Leaside (thin volume or not). The safest areas in TO will be where people can receive CMHC coverage, which precludes the McMansion set; it’s not different there.

#44 Don on 01.09.13 at 12:23 am

@ #13 Hoof-Hearted on 01.08.13 at 10:35 pm

“Can’t wait for that Star Wars a$$hole moment….where Dr. Wayne admits to Smoking Man she/he is his father…..or vice versa.”

***********

Nice! Thanks for the laugh… to funny.

#45 Seven Stars and Orion on 01.09.13 at 12:25 am

Sorry Garth,
Like that other poster, my wife and I have also had two little ones since I started reading in ’09. Maybe it’s the water around here?
Anyway, late nights with crying babies and greaterfool.ca go together like milk and cookies.

#46 Herb on 01.09.13 at 12:25 am

Garth, Smoking Man a fraud? Next thing you’re going to try to tell us that there is no Santa Claus!

#47 Don on 01.09.13 at 12:26 am

@ #35 wes coast on 01.08.13 at 11:51 pm

We are on day 48 of straight rain (I made that up – but it sure feels like a fact). I can’t understand why anyone wouldn’t pay millions to live here.
**************

One of the reasons I made the choice to leave the scene at 32. But it is sunny there for at least 3.5 months- lol.

Good luck and get out when you can. Not worth sitting in weekend rush hour.

#48 Don on 01.09.13 at 12:35 am

@#38 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.08.13 at 11:57 pm

This blog needs an Express Lane…where the more intuitive and intellectual posts are posted ASAP without moderation.

PS: Dr. Wanker…move to the back of the bus and out of the emergency exit

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

So true!

I have been reading this blog for long time now and have seen many handles move on OR finally Get kicked out by Garth. DA has been allowed to stay, he has moderated his tone though and is treated like a kitten. Nice to play with but goofy in reasoning.

#49 Andrew on 01.09.13 at 12:36 am

DABob,

Poke poke poke

Sales numbers please

Look, You can even lie a bit if you like if it helps you out.

C’mon show some courage man!

DAILY credibility score-still zero.

#50 Doesn't Matter on 01.09.13 at 12:47 am

Smoking Man is a fraud and wrong! Who knew? I’m crushed, it may be hard to believe some of the stuff I read on the internet now.

By the way is it the same smoking man that was posting in another comment section of another blog a while back trying to get people give him a minimum of $100,000.00 for some Florida get rich scheme?

#51 Holy crap where's the Tylenol on 01.09.13 at 12:52 am

This ongoing saga of real estate failure is too much. We need some action here people! Call the National Guard, Why no make it President, better yet, Oh God? Where art thou? Oh what the hell I calling my Lawyers, Dewy, Cheatum& Howe.

#52 };-) aka D.A. on 01.09.13 at 12:53 am

#34Snowboid on 01.08.13 at 11:44 pm
Here is a 2008 prediction from the great goldenpoodle – looks promising for Kelowna RE?

Postby Devil’s Advocate » Oct 11th, 2008, 8:36 am…

SFD median $700,000 in October 2015/16
Strata median $450,000 in October 2015/16

That is some wonky crystal ball!

Well I just wasted way too much time trying to find that post to confirm the context within which it was made. Would you care to post the whole comment or better yet provide a direct link to it>

That said it really wouldn’t surprise me to see those prices then which would be a doubling of the respective 2005/06 prices over the course of ten years following including an allowance for a correction of the bubble that took place in 2007/08. Such a doubling is consistent with Kelowna real estate price trends, through the peaks and valleys, over the last fifty plus years. Will it continue? I think it more likely than not as I have implied here on this very blog a lot more recently than October 2008. Just two days ago in fact.

#20};-) aka D.A. on 01.06.13 at 9:59 pm
Just in case you forgot

Sustainability 101: Exponential Growth – Arithmetic, Population and Energy

Now go back and look at those charts again.

Sure I can see how I might have made such a statement. Certainly not as wild a prediction as any other on this blog. Besides, making such a statement on this or any other blog is quite different than stating so to a client. Garth, I am quite sure, does not make so bold unqualified claims to his clients as this blog allows him to.

You are not my client and I can say anything I want, subject to Garths moderation, on this blog and not be held accountable to you for it. Which is in part why I post under an alias. But I do try to keep it real.

You think Snowboid that prices are never going to rise again? As I have said many a time on this blog ‘they will and a lot sooner than you think’. If they don’t you’re going to have a lot more to worry about than the real estate values. Shelter is a need, not a want – a need. You figure it out from there.

#53 furst on 01.09.13 at 12:54 am

#28 Dr. WAYNE on 01.08.13 at 11:14 pm

No question marks necessary … conclusively, you are the first mindless a$$hole (now the ! mark).
===========
Dr. Wayne, you are not the police or governing body for Furst posts. To prove it, watch this. FFFFUUUUUURRRSSTT. See you can’t do anything about it. On another note, chicks dig me more than they dig you.

#54 Don on 01.09.13 at 1:08 am

Garth – I couldn’t wait to have kids but thick in the middle of it all, your advice is warranted but then again is their ever a good time to have children. Besides I can’t spend because I don’t go out. Timing is everything and at least I am liquid, mobile and ready to make the pounce when the planets align. I don’t cherish material goods only knowledge this makes it easier as I am TIME POOR. Savvy by nature, quality counts and patience is my key. And most of all, my children are my entertainment for better or for worse, but well worth the roller coaster ride and one hell of a return, if done right – Maybe one day I can live in their basement as I plan sell when the time is right. Human nature forgets the past and repeats. I can see being loyal to a piece of A$$ but not an Asset.

AND My wife reads this blog also and is in agreement.

Thanks for being you and for doing what you do. You’ve made my life much easier. It is always nice to have a venue that allows individuals to benchmark their line of reasoning.

Oh yah – why the smoking man “Fraud”? I can think of a whole lotta other words to describe that handle…

#55 };-) aka D.A. on 01.09.13 at 1:10 am

#49Andrew on 01.09.13 at 12:36 am
DABob,

Poke poke poke

Sales numbers please

Look, You can even lie a bit if you like if it helps you out.

C’mon show some courage man!

DAILY credibility score-still zero.

I don’t lie and those who do aren’t helped out by doing so. Not lying gets me in trouble more often than not it seems as people would rather hear what they want than what they need to. If my wife asks if a pair of jeans make her ass look fat and they do, I tell her straight “they do”. Not that it’s any of your business but my wife’s ass is far from fat. THIS really is, as previously pointed out much to the chagrin of the Blog Dawgs, a pretty acurate likeness of my wife. Yep, I am a pretty lucky man. };-)

Speaking of things that are none of your business Andy; My personal business is none of your business so you can quit with the incessant requests. Not going to happen.

#56 earlybird on 01.09.13 at 1:12 am

Negative momentum will eventually turn into panic….
Great post Garth, your hilarious!

#57 $$$BPOE#1 on 01.09.13 at 1:13 am

BPOE is doing just great thank you very much. Any talk of declining prices is pure speculation. The pause that refreshes indeed

#58 Kingarthur on 01.09.13 at 1:17 am

#35-wes coast: I spent 10 days in Montreal over the holidays. Biggest snowstorm since ’71, temperatures of -10 to -20 celcius. I like Montreal, but I was reminded why i left for the west coast 40 years ago.

#59 Jeff on 01.09.13 at 1:27 am

What is being said about here is not entirely correct. There is reason for real estate to appreciate. Over 50 percent of all real estate is owned free and clear in the U.S. and of the real estate being financed 40 percent is financed privately not from a bank! As our government prints more money than ever, the wealthy are buying real estate such as land to protect money and brace for the collapse of the U.S. dollar. Many large companies are firing CEOs this year as profits there are also down. Let’s not forget 380 banks wiped out, Frisch’s and other large restaurants having trouble and large retailers profits cut in half. It appears to me that if you own real estate, that you are not the fool. The pic of Garth Turner is beside those words.

#60 Soylent Green is People on 01.09.13 at 1:33 am

I hope poor gmail man enjoysvhis future spam

#61 Humpty Dumpty on 01.09.13 at 1:35 am

Mimic This…

The evolution of the market into a vast cybernetic intelligence has been largely invisible so far. It is hard to distinguish because it is a creature of the collective mind, inextricable from society itself. It is being born, however, by the amplification of human intelligence in swarms of software evolving in the substrate of market psychology. When will we finally see it? Perhaps when we become a threat to its own existence.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/cris-sheridan/sci-finance-great-cybernetic-experiment-part-2

#62 Interesting Times on 01.09.13 at 1:44 am

The facts are the facts. Many HGTV Virgins will go bankrupt. Garth you are too nice stating that in demand areas prices will only drop by 5%. My scum broker informs me that 80% of all mortgages were 5% down or zero down. Free money from the banks too all the virgins in Canada to sign up for debt slavery and lose there life savings.

The 50% crash is coming fast!

RE agents, builders, bankers & government are in full out panic because this is the biggest Ponzi scheme in Canada’s history. The USA, Spain, Ireland, Greece, UK all thought they were different also. Take CHMC taxpayer backed mortgages out of Canada & you will see a 70% crash in RE over night because the bankers would ask for a minimum of 25% down payment. My question is why are we subsidizing our banks to make record profits while the taxpayer holds all the risks!!!!

It will be an easy 50% crash!

Therefore, you HGTV Virgins who have not bought yet get out there and start low balling big time. The industry is in full out panic as the FREE money is drying up.

#63 Vangrrl on 01.09.13 at 2:00 am

#47 Don:
You must have left a while ago. Last year it was only sunny from about mid July to mid Oct… 3 months. Three and a half would be nice!!

#64 Jeff on 01.09.13 at 2:01 am

I usually agree with most of Garth advice, but not this one : Also seriously delay having a family.

IMO, you should get a family and continue to rent. By the day when Vancouver Real Estate will hit bottom, the kid will be 5 or 6 years old already. Then it will be a good moment to buy and get a bigger courtyard for the kid to play.

#65 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.09.13 at 2:12 am

-
“Once wages recover a little and prices in Van decline to 97% of today’s levels, and four yards of pixie dust to have incomes swell enough to justify home prices, Soper suggests, up she goes again. Is this possible?” — When pigs fly.
*
#207 Bill Gable on 01.08.13 at 7:21 pm — “This is 1981, on steroids. Take that to the bank.” — 100% agreed. except this time the ‘recovery’ will be in fits and starts, and is not likely to play out most would like.

#211 eddy on 01.08.13 at 8:01 pm — Thx. for the link and posting. These govt. nutbars are making life so much easier for us, as we can completely ignore and eliminate them from our lives. They’re so bloody stupid, it’s beyond comprehension! Sandy Hook – Aurora Third para. down is quite interesting, as is the rest of the article.
*
Euro Crisis is over, but Unemployment figures tell a different story; Austerity Harshness NYT supports it, but they’re paid-for and controlled m$m. Better to avoid reading their barf mulch; Trillion Dollar Coin Make it a Quinquadtrillion coin, cash it in at the BoC then eliminate all taxes; Latin America – Going the way of Libya, Syria and Tunisia? Chinese Hard Landing Deliberately engineered?
Gold and things, and Bretton Woods Gold; The Most Unemployed Cities in America; Britain 50 best inventions; Alcoa Doing well; Headline is a good description of the CPC; Excessive? Sure he’s a manager, but does he need to be compensated in such a manner?
*
Monkeying Around It’s a complicated life; Wacky Jobs Chocolate beer specialist? Further on Sandy Hook How awfully convenient; Kilts Bum talk; Brazil Land grab at gunpoint, such as here; Tel Aviv Karma’s a bitch, but all debts must be repaid. See next for Good example; Silence Nice to tune out from the meaningless drivel of this world; Soursop Fruit Never heard of it, but it appears to be quite effective and Migraine Relief without pills; Winter in Antactica “Temperatures can dip as low as minus 130 Fahrenheit, which is cold enough to cause frostbite in just seconds.”; Recipe Cinnamon vanilla almond butter banana pops, and Fake Coffee, Fake Beef Nothing is real anymore; Links in “Spence is a master media manipulator; she knew better than to do her dieting stunt up in Attawapiskat, where it hit -33 C this week, and was accessible only by airplane. She flew to Ottawa and pitched a teepee for the benefit of the bored Parliamentary Press Gallery.” More to the eye than what is spoken of going on there.

#66 Devore on 01.09.13 at 2:15 am

#35 wes coast

If your region has a “winter season”, you’re almost certainly suffering through it to get to summer, no matter you are. Some enjoy the cold crisp air, snow, and the outdoor activities made possible, others can’t bear it and would rather get drenched under a dreary sunless sky for 5 months straight. Most, though, don’t have much of a choice and just want to get to the other side as soon as possible.

#67 Investx on 01.09.13 at 2:18 am

“So in the meantime, don’t save your money. Invest it. You and the deviant have $51,000 TFSA room between you, which is a good place to start. Get it into exchange-traded funds pacing the S&P, the TSX, the real estate trust index and preferred share index, for starters. Find a fee-based advisor to set it up and run it”

Why hire someone to actively manage passive products mirroring major indexes?

Because there are 1,500 ETFs and most people have enough trouble finding their car keys. — Garth

#68 Investx on 01.09.13 at 2:20 am

Garth, why won’t demand areas be as affected? Won’t they revert to the mean?

Is it “different there”?

#69 Timing is Everything on 01.09.13 at 2:21 am

It’s still Regina. — Garth

Better than being on pogey in Windsor. Especially for the young and mobile.
Maybe she’s just making it up? It can’t be that bad…Can it?

http://tinyurl.com/akrch7m
http://tinyurl.com/b2yvc3n

#70 Ronaldo on 01.09.13 at 2:41 am

Everything you wanted to know about Kelowna real estate.

http://wolfhomes.com/blog/

#71 condopoor on 01.09.13 at 2:49 am

Garth,

I love how you’re a dick to the people who deserve it, kind to people who don’t, and appropriately apathetic to the rest. You’re good.

#72 Richard and Zeus on 01.09.13 at 3:35 am

#36

Try selling it at $391……houses are selling way below assessed value. The greedy guvmint is just trying to keep taxes high to pay its overpaid pencil pushing werkfarce.

#73 FTP - First Time Poster on 01.09.13 at 3:56 am

Garth,

Came across this handy dandy interactive map from the Brookings Institute. It shows Economic Performance Rankings globally. What’s interesting is if you click on any Canadian city, they are all down considerably from where they were ranked 5 years ago.

Calgary up to 2007 was ranked 54th in the world – today its 157th with Edmonton right behind it (which was 83rd up to 2007).

What is most interesting (and telling) about this map is that the strongest, highest ranked economic power centres are nowhere in the West – they’re all in Asia. If you need anymore proof that the West is no longer an economic superpower – this would be it. It’s pretty clear what the implications are for RE.

http://www.brookings.edu/research/interactives/global-metro-monitor-3

#74 Buy? Curious? on 01.09.13 at 4:18 am

Nobody puts Baby in a corner and nobody should impersonate Smoking Man!

Garth, are you seeing more traffic to your site now because of the oncoming tsunami of financial destruction or your witty one-liners?

I love this blog for the free information and the ongoing examples of Canadian delusionalism.

Go Leafs! (Leaf fans are the biggest doormats in professional sports).

#75 Tony on 01.09.13 at 4:24 am

Re: #19 Mark on 01.08.13 at 10:56 pm

True enough just a longer lag time.

#76 Tito Santana on 01.09.13 at 4:30 am

Smoking man got burrrned!!I’m sure that I’m not the only one who scrolls past all his annoying posts.

#77 TomOfMilton on 01.09.13 at 6:01 am

Psssssst! Jasmine!
Don’t delay having a family. That is one I hear all too often as being regretted.
I’ve found that having children, I am happier in a different way than I expected and don’t suffer any regrets. I smile a little sadly when I hear people speak of the financial burden children are…some don’t have kids…some do but that is the sad part.
It’s the delaying part that I hear the sadest amount of regret. Thought it might help to hear another view on that.

#78 Smoking Man on 01.09.13 at 7:09 am

You guys are so stupid, what Garth ment by smoking Man being a frud is the poster was not Smoking Man

Idiots…….

#79 Longterm on 01.09.13 at 7:45 am

#78 TomOfMilton on 01.09.13 at 6:01 am

Nothing wrong with delaying kids. My wife and I waited until we were 40. By then we’d lived 8 years in Van followed by 10 in London (UK), got great careers going, paid off all debt, saved and invested a few hundred grand and travelled to 42 countries over a decade including on 14 month trip in 2009-10 (the little one was spawned in the Australian Outback). Free and mobile, drinking pints in London, pizza in Naples, summitting mountains in Asia, sailing in New Zealand. So now we have a wad invested throwign off income and great adventures as a mobile couple that make up our memories. Starting now with a kid means that we aren’t broke and regretting not having had an adventurous life before children and we can look forward to the new adventures as a family.

So yeah, delay. Save, invest, travel, have adventures and then if the urge takes you have a kid of two.

#80 G on 01.09.13 at 8:37 am

I skip all comments posted by people with the letters “D.A.” and squiggly marks in their name. I also skip everything posted by Dr. Wayne, Smoking Man, Old Man, and any of their relatives.

#81 GeorgeSoonToBeRetired on 01.09.13 at 8:47 am

I Just heard Richard Silver, past TREB director, on CFRB am talk radio here in Toronto on something called the John Moore morning show. The host asked some softball questions about the RE picture in Toronto, and Silver assured everywhere that condos are great investments, solidly built and make for a great lifestyle. He assured us that condos would appreciate “only 2-3%” this year and onward, and the SFH market would still go ahead “about 8-9%”

Sounds like a very credible man. Garth, you can turn out the lights on your blog now.

I also wonder about the asinine comments of Paul Godfrey yesterday about how he wouldn’t want a casino in his neighbourhood, but that nobody lives in downtown Toronto anyway, so a casino there would be fine. I can only imagine the devastation to condo values already under stress if the casino is located in downtown/waterfront Toronto.

#82 Westcdn on 01.09.13 at 8:53 am

I received my property tax assessment and thought it was out of line. So I called my city assessment department, twice, to ask how they assessed my home. My story is probably old news but it might be useful to someone. I spoke to two city employees who were knowledgeable and answered my questions. There were no charges for their service. My main concern about curb appeal was groundless although it is a factor that can be used. It turns out my house is comparatively larger than I thought. Plus I back onto to an open green space, a luxury few of my neighbours have. I wasn’t initially convinced they had my house square footage right but they had a device which calculates the area of roofs from aerial photographs. It gives a very good estimate of the house square footage although elaborate roof designs can reduce its accuracy. So after comparing my house valuation factors (which do not include one for renovations) to others in the neighbourhood, I believe the city has a basically sound method to calculate assessments. It was a worthwhile use of my time.
Since the assessed value is driven by last year’s neighbourhood house sales, my assessment will rise or fall regardless of what I do to my home. Owners of renovated houses will be slightly behind the curve of taxes payable. I just have to hope no one shows up in the neighbourhood, buys an original house, rebuilds it as a palace and flips it. I never asked about that one – another phone call to see if they have an outliner rule?
Kudos to the city employees

What city? — Garth

#83 TurnerNation on 01.09.13 at 8:56 am

“Poland Cuts Main Rate for Third Meeting to Spur Flagging EconomyQ
Poland lowered borrowing costs for a third month to spur economic growth that the central bank predicts will dip to the slowest in more than a decade in 2013. “

#84 phinny on 01.09.13 at 9:17 am

C’mon Garth, having kids is not the end of everything!

My wife and I are in about the same position as them (‘cept we don’t live in Vancouver) and we’ve got a little rug rat. He’s not expensive, his College was paid for at birth, and having him around REALLY pushes me out the door to work in the morning. Once he can walk, I’ll have a belay slave, a hunting partner, and a little fella to root for and try and teach a few things to.

Probably the best thing that has ever happened to me in my life (until he trashes the car, someday, I s’pose).

As for expenses, heck, so long as you’re not buying him iPhones and XBox-es his whole life, it’s pretty minimal. The wife won’t work, but she doesn’t mind. We make do with my small business. Do I drive a Cadillac? Nah, but I got a really nice canoe.

#85 Mr Happy!! on 01.09.13 at 9:19 am

“Also seriously delay having a family.”

Agreed!! Kids are overrated! We decided against having children and are enjoying life, comfortably retired at 50! Of course our friends hint that we have missed out on one of the “joys” in life. My wife forbids me to mention that one of their “joys” came home knocked up! Then there are the “joys” that cause nothing but heartache…. You get my drift….

Funny though, they always say how “jealous” they are that we can take the trips we do and how we always seem relaxed….. DUH!!!!

Yes, they say….but you will be lonely when you get old. Really? How often do you visit your folks once they hit the “home”?

To all the young couples out there…. Boys, get it snipped and girls, take the pill. Invest wisely, Save 20-30% of your gross, and live within your means!!!

Gotta go, it’s Wednesday and that means taking the boat into the ocean and catching some Dorado for dinner!! Ah yes, reeling in a 60lb fish while my precious topless sweetheart cheers me on…those $20,000.00 beauties crafted by a South American master glistening with suntan lotion…. (that last part while true, was for you Garth)

Life is good….

#86 Nukester99 on 01.09.13 at 9:19 am

Fear is the strongest driving force known to any market. It can make prices rise or fall depending on where the fear lies.
1> People fear interest rates rising (for very good reasons) so what happens is money is removed from the bond market (people wish to preserve their capital), less money becomes available for lending, demand exceeds supply and interest rates rise which cause more money to be removed from the bond market and interest rates rise once more and the cycle repeats.

2> People fear that their house values (the vast proportion of their net worth) will fall. In an attempt to “capture” this “wealth” and the fear of rising interest rates, they try to sell. Of course selling for less then they think to place is worth cause major emotional issues as they have “lost” money that if they sold (credit GT) at the peak they would have made a larger amount. They hold on, more people try to sell, buyers are not biting as they fear buying at too high a price and with interest rates rising (they fear) the market stagnates and prices fall, fears rise, more listings and more price drops by the now desperate sellers and this causes even fewer sales by skittish buyers. The cycle repeats.

3> The stock market response to all this is as GT states will be the opposite. As money is removed from the bond market it needs to go somewhere. What are the options? Real Estate…I don’t think so as investors fear a declining market and it will be avoided. PM’s… a small amount may go that way temporarily BUT money always tries to chase the best returns based on risk/reward. Stock Market…that is where most of the money will head causing a substantial demand for value stocks. This will cause the TSX60/S&P500 and other investments to rise in value. People seeing this will move out of PM’s and put more money into the stock market as their PM’s stagnate and they begin to fear a drop in PM value which of course repeats itself.

So as logic shows clearly is that fear is a driving force far more powerful than the euphoria of the wealth effect of rising RE prices.

Follow GT’s advice early and you will be far better off in the long run. Ignore it and you also can be like the sheep fearing rising interest rates, falling RE prices and falling PM prices and missing out of rising stock markets. It is going to be an interesting ride, just be the driver and not the person being ridden.

#87 robert james on 01.09.13 at 9:27 am

I think if I were Global TV I would no longer have anything to do with these two paid stooges,,Muir and Somerville.. Global`s credibility is going to take a severe hit in the near future , more than it already has if they keep interviewing these two shills.. I think they are embarrassing as they are insulting viewer`s intelligence..

#88 AK on 01.09.13 at 9:36 am

#19 Mark on 01.08.13 at 10:56 pm
“Pushing REITs again Garth? Shame, shame… Everyone knows that they will suffer the same as residential real estate since its all real estate.”

Please explain. As an example, how is T.BPO correlated to the Canadian Housing Market?

#89 Jim Lahey on 01.09.13 at 9:55 am

#53 Furst

“Dr. Wayne, you are not the police or governing body for Furst posts. To prove it, watch this. FFFFUUUUUURRRSSTT. See you can’t do anything about it. On another note, chicks dig me more than they dig you.”

You are the man Fuuuurst! Witty as usual and quite right of course. “Dr.” Wayne reminds me of the school yard bully. A sad soul he must be Fuurst, to get his kicks out of calling first posters a$$holes when in reality the only bona fide a$$hole on this blog is the demented “Dr.” himself. Ricky told me to remind you that you are an honorary member of Sunnyvale and can come by any time.

#90 Gotthardbahn on 01.09.13 at 9:59 am

Turner – You keep calling for a major house price correction and it just ain’t happening, nor will it any time soon. December Housing Starts just came out higher than expected and November’s numbers were revised upwards. Within a five minute walk of my rental digs at Yonge & Eligible in the Big Lemon I can see eight (EIGHT!) condos announced, being dug or under construction. One of my clients 90 minutes west of here tells me that her company builds luxury homes in the $1.5KK range, and they’re selling as quickly as they can build ‘em. So where’s this correction you keep blathering about?

You err in thinking that this is a real economy we live in, one that corrects and rises and falls, the way open/free markets once were. You forget that central banks around the globe are manipulating the money supply through quantitative easing and other trickery to support wobbly major banks and national economies and, despite the Fed recently appearing to indicate that further QE may be off the table, there is NO WAY Barack Obama will allow the Fed to raise interest rates during his second term. Ben Bernanke’s term as Fed chief is up for renewal in a year’s time, I believe. Think about it…’You’d like another term as Fed chief, Mr. Bernanke? Then keep printing the money, sir, or we’ll put somebody else in there.’

Even the new Basle bank capital requirements have been delayed another four years so banks can make the necessary adjustments. This is not a sign of either bank health or good bank management.

Bottom line: Central banks, at the behest of their political masters who seek to please the world’s largest banks, will ensure rates stay low in perpetuity. It’s been almost five years since the economic ‘crisis’; what’s another couple of years? And, please, don’t tell me that, in the case of Canada at least, that banks here fear the Bank of Canada. That the Big Five, with profits of several hundred gazillion dollars annually, will permit a pipsqueak like Mark Carney or Julie Dickson to tell them what to do? Don’t be so naive. The banks here play for keeps and with all the money they’ve placed in real estate, they will ignore or circumvent any meddlesome instructions from Ottawa and its clueless – but well paid – civil servants. Hence no meaningful house price correction now or in the near future.

#91 anonymous on 01.09.13 at 10:09 am

Regarding the trillion dollar coin being discussed in the US: The absurdity of it kind of reminds me of that episode of Married With Children when Al Bundy wanted a 99 cent coin because so many price points end in 99 cents (maybe they could have used a loony–it’s worth 99 cents US on lots of days).

But doesn’t the notion of a trillion dollar coin sound absurd! It’s hard to believe that it’s being seriously discussed–and by a nobel prize winning economist at that! This seems to be indicator of some kind of a top or some kind of threshold has been passed. When such farcical ideas are being discussed seriously, you have to think the whole entire economic system is just totally beyond the pale. The whole thing is such a blatant ponzi scheme–you don’t need an economics degree to see that! The uneducated man on the street can see the whole US economy (and therefore the world economy) is a giant ponzi scheme because the authorities are talking about minting a trillion dollar coin to pay down the debt. It’s like taking the printing of money to a whole new level. This has to indicate just how precarious the US economy is right now–they must be teetering on the edge of the abyss to be considering this.

#92 :) :( Ying Yang on 01.09.13 at 10:11 am

#88 Mr Happy!! on 01.09.13 at 9:19 am
“Also seriously delay having a family.”
Agreed!! Kids are overrated! We decided against having children and are enjoying life, comfortably retired at 50! Of course our friends hint that we have missed out on one of the “joys” in life. My wife forbids me to mention that one of their “joys” came home knocked up! Then there are the “joys” that cause nothing but heartache…. You get my drift….
Funny though, they always say how “jealous” they are that we can take the trips we do and how we always seem relaxed….. DUH!!!!
Yes, they say….but you will be lonely when you get old. Really? How often do you visit your folks once they hit the “home”?
To all the young couples out there…. Boys, get it snipped and girls, take the pill. Invest wisely, Save 20-30% of your gross, and live within your means!!!
Gotta go, it’s Wednesday and that means taking the boat into the ocean and catching some Dorado for dinner!! Ah yes, reeling in a 60lb fish while my precious topless sweetheart cheers me on…those $20,000.00 beauties crafted by a South American master glistening with suntan lotion…. (that last part while true, was for you Garth)
Life is good….

Delusional my friend! I have all that you have plus the grace of my beautiful children and grandchildren. All of my children are successful professionals. Yes there are heartaches but then again there are phenomenally memorable times that last forever. With all of my wealth and success I could not be happy with out my family, but I am glad you are happy as you are!

#93 jess on 01.09.13 at 10:26 am

Contradicting himself, Goldman’s CEO admits to prop trading; Regulators Informed

…”A blockbuster Bloomberg news story today (“Secret Goldman Team Sidesteps Volcker [Rule Ban on Prop Trading] After Blankfein Vow”) is even more explosive than first appears. What got all the attention was Goldman’s past and ongoing proprietary trading, arguably in violation of the proposed Volcker Rule prohibition and the CEO’s “vow” that Goldman “shut off all that activity.” The article details how Goldman “has worked around regulations curbing proprietary bets at banks.” (Prop trading is discussed in greater detail below.)
http://www.bettermarkets.com/blogs/contradicting-himself-goldman%E2%80%99s-ceo-admits-prop-trading-regulators-informed

#94 hangfire on 01.09.13 at 10:30 am

Could another historical squeeze be coming? Certainly Warren Buffet thinks so…he’s dumping his balanced portfolio for cash.

http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-economist-stock/2012/08/29/id/450265?PROMO_CODE=110D8-1&utm_source=taboola

There is an educated elite who are predicting a market correction of up to 90% !!! That could set up the next great depression…..being a senior and having to sell is going to suck if your portfolio collapses by 90% eh? And with housing falling dramatically…there’ll be nothing left…..except gold….gold….gold……and maybe silver….ya baby

#95 };-) aka D.A. on 01.09.13 at 10:31 am

#88 Mr Happy!! on 01.09.13 at 9:19 am

How possibly could you know what you are talking about beyond the shallow self-indulgent life you lead that has caused you to miss that which you will never know. You don’t know what it is, yet you feel a void from time to time – an yearning. You wonder what it is that is missing in your life. You seek trinkets and tartlets thinking they are want you need but they are only a short lived euphoric mask of that underlying yearning.

I’ve got enough close friends who are living such a life, childless and/or divorced, who have confided in me from time to time to know. I’m not talking through my hat. I’m helpless to console them and I often feel so ashamed for being so blessed in their presence when they clearly regret now too late the path they chose which has left their life so barren.

Yes raising a child is hard work and not without peril. Yes it is costly and time consuming. Our children, now grown and starting lives of their own, are our best friends. I can’t imagine what life would be like without them. But I do know, that of all the things in my life, were I given opportunity to go back and do it differently, the only thing I would not change in any way shape or form is my family. They are our purpose for being. No, there is, in fact, nothing in our past we would change as doing so might alter the course of history and jeopardize that which we are most proud of – our children. We raised them to be better than ourselves and we are proud to say without question we were successful in doing so. They will continue on and improve this world. And that’s kind of what it’s all about isn’t it? Otherwise, what really is the purpose?

It’s inbred within each of us Mr. Happy, you can deny it all you want, but deep down inside it’s instinct. You may not know that but you feel it. Like a doe protects its fawn, like a bear its cub our purpose is to keep on keeping on doing the best we can to protect and evolve into a better species. It’s instinct and it’s in us all.

Our retirement planning would be a lot easier if we knew when our lives were going to end. Life would be like that you are living, trying to cram every self-gratifying experience into what time you’ve got left ensuring you spent your last dime the minute of your last breath.

Sadly some are denied the option of having a family through no fault or choice of their own. Some of those who are adopt, others become parents to all helping future generations improve. And then there are others like you live out their shallow finite life focused on filling that void they feel with things that never quite seem to satisfy.

You just don’t know Mr. Happy and that is sad.

People were created to be loved
Things are created to be used
The problem with society today is;
Things are loved
And people are being used.

Jazz people are more important than any thing. Life is tough but there is no greater reward than raising a family.

Oh and Mr. Happy, my wife and I get to do all those things you boast you do and more.

};-)

You should quit selling houses and get a job at Hallmark Cards. You have no right to impose your own breeding preferences on others nor seek to make them feel diminshed for their choice not to have children. It is as valid as yours. — Garth

#96 claudius emperor on 01.09.13 at 10:41 am

Let me put it straight:

When the housing bubble here bursts there would be NO exceptions based on area of demand, location etc. The degree of indebtedness and the elevation of prices compared to income far surpasses the US, even the Irish bubbles.

In 2009 there was a drop in prices in the range of 10-15 percents in just few months across the border (based on input from a friend of mine who is a real estate agent). That was reversed by F’s 40 years 0 down ‘insured’ by CMHC mortgages.

There would be a fallout of biblical proportions without any real options to be addressed by the government. My humble prediction is that we will see a drop of at least 40-50 percents on average from the current ridiculously elevated levels across the border. Probably the minimum drop would be 30-35 percents. Somewhere would be 60 or more. This is what happened in Ireland (keep in mind there are the headquarters for Europe of most of the worlds IT companies), I don’t see why it would not happen here.
The only alternative is massive money printing and give away-s which no matter how stupid is F his powerful friends and bosses won’t allow him to do. This is not Obama’s government that will cut taxes for the middle class families.

And guess what, after some time of severe price decline and the bitter taste of lost equity (People somehow feel rich when their 700 k 95 % mortgaged home ‘rises’ in value) Real Estate would be toasted for a very long time. I am not even talking here about the baby boomers retiring effect.

On the future demand: As for quality immigrants we can clearly forget about that. Currently Asia (China, India, Turkey) give their educated citizens far better opportunities for a good life and prosperity. As friend of mine, member of provincial parliament was saying: It is better for doctors to be doctors in India rather than to drive taxies in Toronto. Do you know what is the difference in the social status and lifestyle of an engineer for example in Mexico, Turkey or India and Canada? Mind-blowing. Not to mention the weather. In the past few years I have been seeing increasing number of people going back to their countries of origin, have a friend of mine who was reporting to me going back to Korea, he is now a director at Samsung.
Compare Samsung and RIM or Nortel these days. And look at them 12 years ago. Another one who came from India for the passport and immediately went back, before coming here he was making 75 k in India, Here he was making 100 k, Now he makes over 110 k there that gives him much better lifestyle, not to mention about the education (very competitive, nothing to do with the schools that grow couch potatoes here).

The real estate market is not monolithic and it is ill-informed to believe all areas will be impacted uniformly. There will be no 50%-off sales in Kits or The Beaches. The laws of supply and demand still rule. — Garth

#97 NorthOf45 on 01.09.13 at 10:57 am

Hamilton-Burlington Real Estate Board have released December stats:

http://www.rahb.ca/press/2013/130104pressreleaseDec.pdf

Actual sales were down 14.2% YoY including condo sales down 23.2%. Residential listings were down 10.7% but average price was up 8.3%. Interestingly though, average price actually fell in 5 of the 14 Ham-Burl areas reported. It appears then that pricing pressures are starting to favour buyers in some areas, but not enough to reduce the overall average yet. I expect more price reductions across the entire Ham-Burl area as the Spring market explodes with listings and given the current mortgage changes. Anecdotally, I’ve heard from two friends with McMansions in Hamilton who’ve decided that 2013 is the year to reduce debts and downsize their living spaces. Both will be listing in the spring market and both expect to cash out significantly in order to pay off debts, etc. On the other hand, I have a friend who just paid $650K for a reno’d Burlington bungalow (impulse buy courtesy of stainless and granite) prior to selling his current home which he expects will sell in the spring. Looking forward to the Spring market to see what direction this crazy market takes in the 905.

#98 claudius emperor on 01.09.13 at 11:13 am

The real estate market is not monolithic and it is ill-informed to believe all areas will be impacted uniformly. There will be no 50%-off sales in Kits or The Beaches. The laws of supply and demand still rule. — Garth
————————————-
I am just stating that the Demand everywhere is artificially propped up (by at least 40-50 %) as of F’s stupidity and irresponsibility. CMHC won’t be insuring expensive homes down the road. The real demand for the areas in question is where the prices where 6-7 years ago (for the Beaches probably 60-65 % of the current prices). Take out CMHC from the equation and see what happens.
Leave it and we will kiss good buy all our services, pensions, etc.. Good for P.M.

A friend of mine bought small semidetached (with asbestos in the basement…, no garage or parking) at the Beaches for 470 k 7 years ago and I told him that he is insane.
At the same time another friend of mine bought in high demand Miami area for the same price 5 bedroom palace with a swimming pool (sold 4 years ago with a hair cut of 210 k) (and we are talking about bubble in US here and how we are much more prudent…)

Markets could be irrational for a very long time but when they rationalize again watch out.
No matter how stupid young couples could be there are limits in their financial means, ‘trendy’ Beaches does not compare and is in no way a world class quality of living location to justify such premiums.
I rather live in Switzerland or in a castle in France for these money.

#99 DM in C on 01.09.13 at 11:13 am

Ahhh the sanctimonious DA is back — as with his pattern, should be time for him to depart for a month or so, promising never to return, as the blog populace here will never change, and no one ‘gets’ nor appreciates him.

In four years, this has been his pattern at least three times. Outside of being banned for awhile.

He’s like herpes. Shows up occasionally with flare, burns, is itchy and NEVER goes away.

#100 };-) aka D.A. on 01.09.13 at 11:17 am

You should quit selling houses and get a job at Hallmark Cards. You have no right to impose your own breeding preferences on others nor seek to make them feel diminshed for their choice not to have children. It is as valid as yours. — Garth

It’s a social responsibility Garth. We all need to ensure the perpetuation and improvement of our species. Without that what purpose is there in anything?

The joys to be had by having children is the reward we get for doing so not unlike the sex which, too often, is the mere motivation in the first place. It is by design my friend. Instinct. A part of each our being.

But I appologize if I touched a nerve in anyone. It’s a passionate subject for all I am sure.

There are options. As I said “Some adopt, others become parents to all, helping future generations improve”. But I think we all need, not want but“need”, to be parents in some way. The sooner one realizes that the sooner they can fill that void within them one way or another.

There are 6.9 billion people. The socially responsible action is to not reproduce. People have kids because they want to, not for the survival of the species. — Garth

#101 mythbuster on 01.09.13 at 11:34 am

Garth comment on comment #99: “The real estate market is not monolithic and it is ill-informed to believe all areas will be impacted uniformly. There will be no 50%-off sales in Kits or The Beaches. The laws of supply and demand still rule. — Garth”.

Garth, why do you have to resort to a put-down of the author of the comment?! Shame…

Garth, you surely remember that in the crash of 1992 Lindon Johnson’s daughter had to sell her residence in desirable Rosedale for 50% less than the $2 mil she paid for it. Same happened to properties in the ‘desirable’ Bridle Path.

For prices to hold in ‘desirable’ areas, others have to move in from ‘less desirable’ areas – where (by your own prognostications) they will be losing tons of money!

Where do you see the cashflow coming to sustain high prices in ‘desirable’ areas? I believe prices might not fall there because the affluent won’t sell – not due to high demand.

Not everyone’s financial status is so fully dependent on the value of their residence.

However, if the businesses of the affluent tank, some will have to sell – and the vulches will peck them.

With all due respect.

That said, I find your blogs hilarious most days, and today’s was one such entry.

First, where’s the put-down? Seond, I’m right. — Garth

#102 claudius emperor on 01.09.13 at 11:38 am

Garth, I completely understand that as a public figure you cannot freely express your view without being marked as a ‘doom and gloom prophet’ (MSM would gladly jump at the opportunity, this is what they are paid for) and as a result you could lose significant credibility.

Watched some of the historical videos on YouTube with Peter Schiff who is one of the few that predicted correctly the housing crash in the states, he was laughed at and made fun of at that point by bunch of complete idiots.

Let’s not forget that we are the most politically correct (prudent, polite …) here (to the point of sickness) so we will sink peacefully with the orchestra playing ”Long live H,F,MC,..”

#103 Paul on 01.09.13 at 11:39 am

#98 };-) aka D.A. on 01.09.13 at 10:31 am

Congratulations! In your long history of smug, self-aggrandizing posts on this blog, this is by far the most memorable. Kudos, sir.

#104 5inatrailer on 01.09.13 at 11:46 am

Retire First, then have kids.
See mrmoneymustache.com for explanation.
If only I knew then what I know now…
We have 3 kids under 5. So much work and yet indescribably rewarding.

#105 Cory on 01.09.13 at 11:49 am

#17 Keswickian

You hit the nail right on the head.

I see so many couples spending so much money on renovations. After the money is gone, renovations are done and so is their relationship.

People fill their time trying to fill certain voids in their life with expensive cars, expensive houses, adding granite, stainless steel, acres of hardwood, only to find themselves broke and divorced.

#106 :) :( Ying Yang on 01.09.13 at 11:57 am

#100 NorthOf45 on 01.09.13 at 10:57 am

Hamilton-Burlington Real Estate Board have released December stats:

http://www.rahb.ca/press/2013/130104pressreleaseDec.pdf

Ditto here in Halton Hills. Seen em all. Can’t figure it out. Some McMansions sitting much longer but have sold. Still see some sitting for over 3 months, probably trying to not take a hit with their listed price. The slowdown is here for sure, but on the other hand one on our street listed In Nov sold in Jan got what they asked $670K. I think the McMansions here are going to have a tougher time as most are in the $850K to $1.5M range. The only saving grace is there is limited building here, no sweeping developments that go on for miles like Milton, Brampton or Mississauga as the infrastructure can only support what we have. No extra water, no more homes. Acton just got the GO service back and if you want to have the best of both worlds (Country space and friendly atmosphere) then go for it in Halton Hills. It will be interesting to see how Halton Hills weathers the coming storm!

#107 Andrew on 01.09.13 at 12:04 pm

DABoB

You claim to be the contrarian voice on this blog, but Garth already has that covered. He presents the contrarian point of view daily and then precedes to dismantle it point by point each and every night.

Everything you write has been dealt with here time and time again so in actual fact, you continually write about nothing making you completely irrelevant.

What will give you some credibility is to report your personal sales numbers. No joke, straight up.

So my incessant requests for your numbers will continue as long as you continue to post here, or until as you put it Hell Freezes Over.

ps,

Please don’t mention your wife’s ass again or how lucky you are, it will lower you below your already rock bottom credibility score of ZERO.

#108 The Prophet Elijah on 01.09.13 at 12:09 pm

Garth, what is questionable in my mind regarding the demographics is do you really see boomers retiring at 65 when most don’t have pensions and might be in debt to a 2nd home? If the RE market turns how many will be hanging on waiting for the rebound that won’t come for a decade.

How many employers want 68-year-olds hanging around? — Garth

#109 Ronaldo on 01.09.13 at 12:12 pm

#88 Mr. HAPPY – just think that if your parents had thought as you do, you wouldn’t be here to talk about it. I guess they would be happy too. Have a Happy life.

#110 Ronaldo on 01.09.13 at 12:29 pm

#70 Investx –

”Because there are 1,500 ETFs and most people have enough trouble finding their car keys. — Garth”

Exactly. Most people would not have a clue where to start and there are just as many “dogs” in the ETF world as you well know. There are few people out there that are capable of doing it themselves. Most people when it comes to investing are totally illiterate. There is nothing wrong with hiring a fee based advisor to set you up with a conservative portfolio, charge you his hourly rate and have him/her do a rebalance once or twice a year. It is not difficult to set up a portfolio of ETF’s that will give you a conservative 5% per annum. Much better than what the guy in the orange shorts can do. Just my opinion.

Almost right. No hourly guy can take care of you. I would not advise that. — Garth

#111 sciencemonkey on 01.09.13 at 12:31 pm

Maybe the US government should hire me to pay off their debt, I know how to turn pennies into gold. Maybe that’s why they are phasing out the penny in Canada!

http://chemistry.about.com/od/chemistryhowtoguide/a/goldsilverpenny.htm

Ahh, aren’t smug breeders lovely? It’s hilarious how so many clamour about gay marriage being a danger to society, while all along the actual danger is overpopulation of the planet. Sure, everyone should keep having 3-4 kids, we can do that forever and still find room and food for all of them on this finite planet.

To counter the saccharine breeder sentiment, please enjoy this long series of raging posts on how parenting is not fun.

http://web-beta.archive.org/web/20120310114650/http://www.justrage.com/I_Hate/i-hate-being-a-fucking-mother-and-i-dont-care-if-you-call-me-a-bitch/

#112 Holy Crap Wheres the Tylenol on 01.09.13 at 12:32 pm

Wow AIG sure likes to poke the sleeping Lion, Go Elizabeth Warren.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/01/08/elizabeth-warren-gears-up/?tid=socialss

#113 Mad Scientist on 01.09.13 at 12:33 pm

Why does everyone preach that once the ball starts rolling and prices begin to drop that it will be a freefall..we bought in 2002 – looking at recent prices of comparables, its a 65% increase – big deal – if prices returned backed to 2002 prices – big deal – I’m here in my house for a reason – shelter – of all my buddies – I am the only one with a mortgage (which should be done with in 2 years, thus a 14 year mortgage term). I think most are over estimating the carnage, yes of course newbie’s are sent to slaughter, but I don’t know of a single person who has a 40 year mortgage. In my neck of the woods – you’re a loser if you have a mortgage for more than 10yrs –

I believe those who purchased condo’s in TO will panic only because a 400sq.ft box doesn’t cut it – the last estimates I heard was 85% of purchasers were investors (and the 80′s condo fall was due to 40% of buyers were investors and got spooked).

I rented for 5 years, and it was the worst time in my life – I now have a home, for the past 11 years and it feels good to have a tiny piece of something that I can call my own –

Lets remember – be careful for what you wish for – it may actual come true!!

Love your neighbour – God’s watching!

#114 Form Man on 01.09.13 at 12:36 pm

DA aka hallmark card writer

Kelowna housing starts for 2012 just in from CMHC. Down 10% from 2011. Next crucial data to watch for is BC yearly population numbers ( released in March ). for the last few years these numbers have indicated population growth in Kelowna is almost flat. Indeed household formation has been considerably below the already reduced housing starts………

Looks like your crystal ball might be a discoloured plastic fake ( not unlike the typical Kelowna realtor )

#115 Canadian Watchdog on 01.09.13 at 12:37 pm

How many employers want 68-year-olds hanging around? — Garth

Many, because they are less likely to ask for pay increases and rehiring costs money to train new workers. The data shows this is exactly what’s happening in our labour market.

The data shows the population bulge and workforce participation, not hiring preferences. I guarantee you will be unemployable by 68 unless you have specific skills, are self-employed or enjoy a regulated professional designation. — Garth

#116 AK on 01.09.13 at 12:41 pm

97 hangfire on 01.09.13 at 10:30 am
“Could another historical squeeze be coming? Certainly Warren Buffet thinks so…he’s dumping his balanced portfolio for cash.”

You failed to mention what Buffet is currently buying.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gurufocus/2013/01/04/why-warren-buffett-keeps-buying-wells-fargo/

#117 name withheld on 01.09.13 at 12:46 pm

A heads-up to those thinking of delaying having children: if you choose to wait, consider banking eggs when you’re young, for use when you’re ready. We waited until our situation was stable, but time didn’t wait for us. We’ve spent a lot of our money on increasingly expensive and invasive treatments, and other options, but with no guarantee of positive results.

A little forethought can save a lot of trouble later on.

This is not an egg blog. — Garth

#118 IM in C on 01.09.13 at 12:49 pm

Jasmine: Here’s a reality check for you. There is never a good time to have a baby, buy a house, or start a business. Waiting for that time will leave you ultimately disappointed. That does not mean you shouldn’t plan and prepare, it means , well, life is….

#119 IM in C on 01.09.13 at 12:56 pm

@118 Canadian Watchdog: When you look for a job, sell your positives . As a guy in his mid 50′s looking for a sales job, I would point out that I was free to travel, which is what is expected of an outside sales guy. I would point out that a 32 man, with a young wife and 2 small children, couldn’t, or after 6 months wouldn’t , be ‘a suitcase’.
In another role, point out that an older fellow like you sincerely wants to work, subtley suggesting that younger guys don’t (Not nessisarily true but…). Point out that you will not be expecting a pension. You would not expect to be trained and developed. You would not expect to be promoted. -like the younger guy would. In short, take a negative and turn it into a positive.

#120 IM in C on 01.09.13 at 1:00 pm

There are 6.9 billion people. The socially responsible action is to not reproduce. People have kids because they want to, not for the survival of the species. — Garth

Well gosh golly gee Mr. Turner. If people didn’t want to have children none of us (including you and me) would be here.

#121 Canadian Watchdog on 01.09.13 at 1:00 pm

I guarantee you will be unemployable by 68 unless you have specific skills, are self-employed or enjoy a regulated professional designation. — Garth

I was referring to elderly workers staying in the workforce, not re-employment. Older workers know they are less employable which gives them even more reason to postpone retirement.

Delayed retirement: A new trend?

#122 Ogopogo on 01.09.13 at 1:04 pm

#73 Ronaldo on 01.09.13 at 2:41 am
Everything you wanted to know about Kelowna real estate.

http://wolfhomes.com/blog/

This site is run by a family of shills trying to pump up a dying market. Need proof? Even as they report this:

“Sales in the Single Family Dwellings (SFD) reached 80 in December which is 16% below 2011 and 25% below our 21 year average of 106 sales.

Percentage of Listings vs. Sales. We are still clearly in a buyer’s market at only 7% of the listing inventory selling. That equals to 15 months of inventory, where a balanced market starts at about 15% of inventory selling in one month or 6 month inventory supply.”

They come to this fraudulent “conclusion”:

“Conclusion
December clearly did set us back again with only 7% of the inventory selling. Maybe we can blame it on the early snow. Either way, we are looking forward to an active spring. We know the buyers are out there, but they are very nervous and looking for bargains.”

Yeah, let’s blame the RE collapse in Kelowna “on the early snow”.

These guys are more pathetic than DA, unless he’s a Krieg himself.

#123 claudius emperor on 01.09.13 at 1:06 pm

#121 IM in C
There is never a good time to have a baby, buy a house, or start a business
———————————————-
Actually there is. There is time for everything.
And the timing is everything.

#124 pbrasseur on 01.09.13 at 1:07 pm

For my part in general I prefer buying individual companies than ETFs. This allows me to select investments on a bunch of facts such as financials, debt, assets, quality of managment, etc, that are impossible to dertemine with an ETF. To me the goal is clear: finding the best companies in the world, at decent prices, to become a long term shareholder. To me, in the long run, investing in great businesses is the best and by far safest way to invest (don’t confuse short term volatility with risk or garantied stability with safety). As a result the bulk of my portfolio is in the US, because that’s were most of the great companies are… I don’t expect to win the lottery, not even to beat the indexes, but I know I’ll be ok as long as I’m patient and learn to rationalize during rough time.

I do use ETF however to get into markets that are too difficult to understand or too unpredictable with individual companies, examples are Pharma and emerging markets.

Works well for me, very well actually.

#125 Dr. WAYNE on 01.09.13 at 1:33 pm

#53 furst on 01.09.13 at 12:54 am

#28 Dr. WAYNE on 01.08.13 at 11:14 pm

No question marks necessary … conclusively, you are the first mindless a$$hole (now the ! mark).
===========
Dr. Wayne, you are not the police or governing body for Furst posts. To prove it, watch this. FFFFUUUUUURRRSSTT. See you can’t do anything about it. On another note, chicks dig me more than they dig you.

======================

Are you also going to take your bat and ball and stomp home like a five-year old in disgust, saying “I’ll show you!!!” … nice try …

#126 Franke le skank on 01.09.13 at 1:33 pm

#118 Canadian Watchdog on 01.09.13 at 12:37 pm
I can’t speak for every company but for the last 4 years Bell Canada has been kicking the senior people out the door once they are elligable to retire. Its the alternative to lay-offs and to maintain a competative cost structure. At least that’s what they claim.

#127 hangfire on 01.09.13 at 1:38 pm

#120 …speaking of eggs…..did you know that the monopoly stakeholders of the egg marketing ‘board’….actually buy the bulk of their eggs in the USA at a free market discount and then resell the product in Canada at grotesque mark ups? Isn’t the civil service in place to protect the farmer here?…apparently not….the farmers do no work at all…instead they simply use an archaic law against free enterprise to gouge the canadian consumer…..not good joss. Why should an egg marketing board be allowed to profit unfairly when the concept was originally to protect farmers? Another example of why the civic servant has to get gone.

BTW.. a point on my comment yesterday regarding ‘Canadians’ being turned back at the border….there were two major groups represented…seniors and obbviously new Mandarin speakers……many spoke zero english…and US border services do not supply a mob of translators for free. I have to assume that a lot of immigrants are using Canadian passports as a back door into the US and the are hip to the game….and not so politically correct as they can’t spell China scam without a spate of name calling.

Why seniors….who were about 40% of the angry desperate mob at the secondary inspection……I think many older Canuckle draggers because of the super high cost of living here and the diminished returns on savings are forcing seniors to find low cost digs as their pension cheques don’t cut it in Canada anymore. The cost of heating a home in the winter is more than a CPP/OAS cheque…for sure….a house built before 1980 would probably cost $700 a month or more because of the high gas costs and the lack of R rating inclusions.

#128 furst on 01.09.13 at 1:38 pm

#92 Jim Lahey on 01.09.13 at 9:55 am
You are the man Fuuuurst! Witty as usual and quite right of course. “Dr.” Wayne reminds me of the school yard bully. A sad soul he must be Fuurst, to get his kicks out of calling first posters a$$holes when in reality the only bona fide a$$hole on this blog is the demented “Dr.” himself. Ricky told me to remind you that you are an honorary member of Sunnyvale and can come by any time.
______________________________-
Thanks Jim! He is a schoolyard bully, the biggest difference is that his attempts don’t work. Usually kids are scared of the bully but here, we just laugh at him. I would love to stop by Sunnyvale. Can you get some moonshine ready and an awesome welcoming party. On an unrelated but important note, I am better looking than Dr. Wayne.

#129 Bigrider on 01.09.13 at 1:39 pm

What a dumb exchange between the posters regarding having children or not. Such a deeply personal experience and desire. If you have such you have children, if not, you do not. There is no right or wrong choice.

#113 Ronoldo- I am surprised your post was allowed through.

#104 Mythbuster- I am with you and your reasoning as personal experience with a property purchase in forest hill, indirectly involved, had a purchaser buying in 1996, a home which just 6 years prior ,had been valued at nearly double his purchase price.

When an ice cube melts, it melts from the outside in, this is true, but given enough heat and time ,it melts completely.

#130 Dr. WAYNE on 01.09.13 at 1:41 pm

#92 Jim Lahey on 01.09.13 at 9:55 am

==========

Hey Jim Bob … you’re recycling your comments in hopes, I suspect, it will ‘move’ me and make me feel like a sh++, SURPRISE !!! … no dice. And thanks for reminding me … I once was referred to a DR. DEMENTIA … jeeezzz, maybe I’ll change my label to suit you.

#131 western observer on 01.09.13 at 1:42 pm

RE: Aka DA

Not that I necessarily agree with you,but I do respect that you have a solid opinion and respond to your challengers.

On a different note : There will not be a crash in SFH prices in the Vancouver area.

The spring will bring a buying frenzy.

Vancouver always has been & always will be the most attractive city in Canada with the mildest climate.

Where else in Canada can you ski & golf on the same day?

Quesion for those who know the answer:

If I take out a line of credit on my paid for house to invest – Is the interest on the line of credit tax deductible? If it is tax deductible is it 100% deductible or does it just come off my income?

Thanks in advance for any answers.

Interest on money borrowed to invest is deductible from taxable income. — Garth

#132 Koolaid Drinker on 01.09.13 at 1:50 pm

‘Home prices are likely to fall by around 25% over the next year or two.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/01/09/housing-starts-december.html

#133 Bottoms_Up on 01.09.13 at 1:51 pm

#112 Ronaldo on 01.09.13 at 12:12 pm
—————————————–
That is the irony of people that brag that they love not having kids or that responsibility in raising a productive member of society. They themselves are that which they gloat against!

And I know of many older boomers that do indeed visit their parents frequently, as well as those that take their parents into their home.

#134 Form Man on 01.09.13 at 1:55 pm

#134 western observer

overbuilt markets do not result in ‘buying frenzies’. fundamentals matter.

#135 Matt on 01.09.13 at 1:58 pm

#134

Just curious: How does the government know exactly from where borrowed investment money comes (for tax purposes)?

Let’s say, I just transfer money from a line of credit into some sort of investment vehicle…do the borrowed funds have to be stamped from the get go…as something to be used exclusively for investment purposes?

Cheat, and find out. — Garth

#136 Tri State Pat on 01.09.13 at 1:58 pm

Probabbly want to look at this to see the CARNAGE that is starting in the Montreal condo market…

…Average condo rental price down 10% from last year…

http://affaires.lapresse.ca/economie/immobilier/201301/09/01-4609698-lembarras-du-choix-pour-les-locataires.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_BO4_la_2343_accueil_POS1

#137 Bottoms_Up on 01.09.13 at 1:58 pm

#105 claudius emperor on 01.09.13 at 11:38 am
————————————————-
You’re wrong on that, Garth isn’t holding anything back, if anything he is too free with his thoughts. Just look back in the blog archives where he actually apologized to some of the dogs. ; )

#138 furst on 01.09.13 at 2:01 pm

#128 Dr. WAYNE on 01.09.13 at 1:33 pm

Are you also going to take your bat and ball and stomp home like a five-year old in disgust, saying “I’ll show you!!!” … nice try …
_____________________________________________
Dr. Wayne, I’m going to work on a program to help you become a happier person. I think you’re probably a decent guy but somewhere along the line whether it was being bullied in school, sidelined at work, social insecurities, you’ve developed a hard outer shell. I’m not here to judge the issue, only help. Lesson 1: Lighten Up. You’re very serious and take yourself and everything too seriously. This is why you get angry at the smallest things. If someone cuts in front of the line, you get upset because you took the situation way too personally. Next time you feel someone has insulted you, just take a breath and try not to take it too heart. Also, despite all my valuable life skills I shall impart to you, remember this. My hair is more lustrous and therefore more desirable to the ladies than yours.

#139 Bottoms_Up on 01.09.13 at 2:05 pm

The socially responsible action is to not reproduce. People have kids because they want to, not for the survival of the species. — Garth
————————————————
Not to get into a big debate on this but what if people such as Tommy Douglas or Edison or Banting and Best [insulin] or Fleming [penicillin] or Bill Clinton or yourself etc. etc. hadn’t been born? The world would be a poorer place. Yes the reverse arguement can be made that we wouldn’t have serial killers either if they hadn’t been born, but if you are an idealist and believe that humanity is largely good, then it could be debated that social responsibility would be to raise productive members of society and to give them a better life. Yes some people are not suited to be parents and can touch people in different ways, but I think it’s a stretch to say social responsibility is to not reproduce. We didn’t get to 6.9 billion people spread across the globe by not reproducing or avoiding creating a better life for our offspring.

#140 Investx on 01.09.13 at 2:10 pm

Because there are 1,500 ETFs and most people have enough trouble finding their car keys. — Garth

Good point! Thanks for the response.

#141 joe calgary on 01.09.13 at 2:10 pm

Is this what the MSM is reffering to as a 3.3% drop in Penticton?
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12516783&PidKey=1700439226

#142 Spiltbongwater on 01.09.13 at 2:22 pm

How many employers want 68-year-olds hanging around? — Garth

The Canadian government employs old geezers in the Senate. Think you can work up to age 75. Garth, you have been in inside the Senate, is there a spot to park the Senators walkers in there?

#143 EIT on 01.09.13 at 2:27 pm

So much for economic freedom.

#144 jess on 01.09.13 at 2:27 pm

leaked audit s calling the kettle black…e.g. F35′s

=http://www.democracynow.org/2013/1/7/hacker_group_anonymous_leaks_chilling_video
Steubenville, Ohio, where members of a high school football team allegedly raped an underage girl and possibly urinated on her unconscious body over the course of an evening of partying in late August. The young men chronicled their actions on social media sites such as Facebook and Twitter. But after many in the town…

#145 Patiently Waiting on 01.09.13 at 2:28 pm

FYI: Still early in the month, but stats from the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board show sales are down by 31% so far on a year over year basis, and down 46% month over month …
—————————————————————-
FVREB STATS – as of January 9, 2013
5 of 22 Working Days
JANUARY 2013 Listings 526 Sales 106
DECEMBER 2012 Listings 312 Sales 197
JANUARY 2012 Listings 564 Sales 154

pw

#146 Dr. WAYNE on 01.09.13 at 2:32 pm

#38 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.08.13 at 11:57 pm

This blog needs an Express Lane…where the more intuitive and intellectual posts are posted ASAP without moderation.

=========================

If Mr. Turner limited his acceptance of posts based ‘solely’ on intuitiveness and intellectualism, I dare say 50%-75% of the posts would be deleted or relegated to the ‘other’ forum, as you propose. Your logic is fatally flawed … and how does one determine into which category a post falls ‘without’ moderation? Sometimes it really helps when you engage the brain, before the fingers do the talking.

#147 Jim Lahey on 01.09.13 at 2:47 pm

#131 Furst

“Can you get some moonshine ready and an awesome welcoming party. On an unrelated but important note, I am better looking than Dr. Wayne.”

Julian has some home made screech you will just love Furst. The welcoming party will be headed by none other than Ricky himself in his beater. It will be a very airy ride from the airport to Sunnyvale I can assure you. Everyone in Sunnyvale thinks your barbs are a total gas! Especially Barb!

#148 Jim Lahey on 01.09.13 at 2:53 pm

#133 “Dr.” Wayne

“Hey Jim Bob … you’re recycling your comments in hopes, I suspect, it will ‘move’ me and make me feel like a sh++, ”

Hey Wayno, not like your recyled comments I take it? Your Pavlovian responses to all first posters on a daily basis are not recyled? Your intent on calling them a$$sholes is to make them feel like what Wayno? Please do enlighten us on your self appointed mission.

#149 TEMPLE on 01.09.13 at 2:54 pm

#98 };-) aka D.A. on 01.09.13 at 10:31 am
and again
#103 };-) aka D.A. on 01.09.13 at 11:17 am

It’s inbred within each of us Mr. Happy, you can deny it all you want, but deep down inside it’s instinct.

DA, are you sure “inbred” is the term you want to use? I don’t think it means what you think it means. It explains an awful lot, though.

We all need to ensure the perpetuation and improvement of our species.

Ridiculous. Notwithstanding your obvious difficulty in understanding how evolution works, I’m still not convinced that your desire to have children and denigrate those that don’t is anything but selfish. Besides, for most of us, not reproducing is a pretty decent contribution to the “improvement of our species”.

But I think we all need, not want but“need”, to be parents in some way.

That’s what you think, but you are wrong, as usual.

TEMPLE

#150 Not 1st on 01.09.13 at 3:08 pm

Garth isn’t any interest accrued in the pursuit of income tax dedectable. Just like if you used a Heloc to buy a rental property or stocks or start a business.

#151 claudius emperor on 01.09.13 at 3:11 pm

Koolaid Drinker on 01.09.13 at 1:50 pm ‘Home prices are likely to fall by around 25% over the next year or two.”
——————————–
So expect 50. at least.

#152 Dr. WAYNE on 01.09.13 at 3:23 pm

#141 furst on 01.09.13 at 2:01 pm

====================

My psychiatrist disagrees with you, big time.

And my hair is below the shoulders and I use Pantene …

#153 The Prophet Elijah on 01.09.13 at 3:24 pm

Garth, what is questionable in my mind regarding the demographics is do you really see boomers retiring at 65 when most don’t have pensions and might be in debt to a 2nd home? If the RE market turns how many will be hanging on waiting for the rebound that won’t come for a decade.

How many employers want 68-year-olds hanging around? — Garth
———————————————————-
Employer can’t make a person retire especially when they are not financially ready, or can they. I just think it will be a common trend for old folks to be hangin around way longer than anticapated. Some won’t retire because of fear of boredom.

#154 Dr. WAYNE on 01.09.13 at 3:24 pm

#151 Jim Lahey on 01.09.13 at 2:53 pm

Please do enlighten us on your self appointed mission.

===================

First, fill me in on the attraction for ‘FIRST’.

#155 cramar on 01.09.13 at 3:37 pm

#108 Cory on 01.09.13 at 11:49 am
#17 Keswickian

You hit the nail right on the head.

I see so many couples spending so much money on renovations. After the money is gone, renovations are done and so is their relationship.

People fill their time trying to fill certain voids in their life with expensive cars, expensive houses, adding granite, stainless steel, acres of hardwood, only to find themselves broke and divorced.

————–

Not always. Some of us renovate since it keeps us occupied and together during retirement. Besides it’s a great way to get the home you want. Make it yourself!

#156 Julia on 01.09.13 at 3:41 pm

Garth did you read this article re Paul Krugman’s dire warnings re the US economy? your thoughts?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/08/paul-krugman-aea-meeting-2013_n_2434563.html?utm_hp_ref=daily-brief?utm_source=DailyBrief&utm_campaign=010913&utm_medium=email&utm_content=NewsEntry&utm_term=Daily%20Brief

#157 Ogopogo on 01.09.13 at 3:45 pm

#144 joe calgary on 01.09.13 at 2:10 pm
Is this what the MSM is reffering to as a 3.3% drop in Penticton?
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12516783&PidKey=1700439226

Good find. It’s not every listing that admits to a massive spread between buy/sell price. A $200K price drop is no laughing matter. That said, Penticton is a sleepy hamlet that we Kelownians go when we get bored of our superior beaches. As far as RE goes though Penticton is the future of Kelowna, always -2% ahead of the housing value decline underway in the Okanagan.

#158 Bottoms_Up on 01.09.13 at 4:03 pm

#152 TEMPLE on 01.09.13 at 2:54 pm
————————————-
The word he was looking for was probably ‘inherent’. And evolution works by selecting for individuals that are capable of reproducing. Not sure about ‘needing’ to be a parent, but as a parent I can tell you my outlook on basically everything has changed. It offers one perspective that I think can only be obtained by becoming one.

#159 Andrew on 01.09.13 at 4:04 pm

DABob,

Crystal Balls, Your Wife’s A_ _, poetry, and shilling for a sale?

Ill advised postings my friend, way to0 much information…

Haven’t heard from you yet, to embarrased or off to rehab perhaps?

#160 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.09.13 at 4:04 pm

#149 Dr. WAYNE on 01.09.13 at 2:32 pm

#38 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.08.13 at 11:57 pm

This blog needs an Express Lane…where the more intuitive and intellectual posts are posted ASAP without moderation.

=========================

If Mr. Turner limited his acceptance of posts based ‘solely’ on intuitiveness and intellectualism, I dare say 50%-75% of the posts would be deleted or relegated to the ‘other’ forum, as you propose. Your logic is fatally flawed … and how does one determine into which category a post falls ‘without’ moderation? Sometimes it really helps when you engage the brain, before the fingers do the talking.

===================================

Did your 5 year old type that? …very impressive…has your receptionists brains !!!

PS Don’t tell Mrs. Dr Wayne

#161 cramar on 01.09.13 at 4:05 pm

#134 western observer on 01.09.13 at 1:42 pm

Vancouver always has been & always will be the most attractive city in Canada with the mildest climate.

—————-

Good summary of today’s comments re. Van weather. You can certainly justify higher RE prices over snowy Montreal and frigid SK (and the Peg). I’m just satisfied as being 2nd best here in the extreme SW of ON at parallel 42. Today it is over 5C under a clear sunny sky. Same tomorrow. Come Friday projected to be two days of 12C but rain. Just the winter to justify 8 times the price of RE in Van.

#162 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.09.13 at 4:18 pm

There are 6.9 billion people. The socially responsible action is to not reproduce. People have kids because they want to, not for the survival of the species. — Garth

Think clan, not global. Think family not clan.

Fact is population growth will, eventually, take care of itself. But thank you for promoting room for the preservation of my children’s and their children’s and their children’s children’s future long term while pointing out the need for my products and services in the interim.

Supply and demand. 1 billion one hundred mere years ago is now, practically, as you point out, 7 billion today. They all meed a place to live, grow food, work and play.

Fight or flight? No. It’s actually four basic instincts that come into play at first encounter; Do I fight it, do I procreate with it, do I eat it or do I run from it. We are all just animals. Some might say the lesser evolved of the bunch.

Obviously I suck at blogging. Or is it the venue I chose?

Thank you to all those who sent me kind emails of support, encouraging me to continue posting contrarian points of view on this blog. Although we know only here are they quite so contrarian.

#163 Jim Lahey on 01.09.13 at 4:18 pm

#157 Dr. Wayne

“First, fill me in on the attraction for ‘FIRST’.”

That would have to be answered by the “first” posters but I suspect they are just having a bit of fun. I take it this warrants your barrage of a$$hole comments towards them?

#164 Penny Henny on 01.09.13 at 4:21 pm

To Dr. Wayne, Furst and Jim Lahey.

DELETED

#165 Hoof - Hearted on 01.09.13 at 4:27 pm

#85 Westcdn on 01.09.13 at 8:53 am

I received my property tax assessment and thought it was out of line. So I called my city assessment department, twice, to ask how they assessed my home.

etc etc.
===================================

IMHO, the assessment system is rigged.

They seem to stretch their parameters to whatever works to keep your assessment high. Our abode was built in 1980 …soon 33 years old….yet its improvement assessment keeps the same. Their excuse is ” insurance replacement value”. WTF ?

My Dads place is 50 years old….and the house(improvement) value yo- yo’s between $18,000 to $15,000.

Try and appeal ? even worse….the appointees don’t know jack sh*t and more and more side with the assessor.

The whole exercise is to increasingly frustrate you if you appeal, and for the majority that don’t, keep them delusional they are “rich”.

FINALLY….

My advice is to use your Cities ” GIS ” system, where one can click onto a map of the city and find a variety of information. Here in Richmond, once can find Assessments info on any property, and see the ” Improvements ” and Land value. and thus have comparables at ones fingertips.

When using this, I have noted some discrepancies in nearby neighbourhoods…(ie similar sized lots but a fair difference re land values) and actually called BC Assessment.

They admitted a problem…and said it does happen..aka someone gets sloppy .

#166 willworkforpickles on 01.09.13 at 4:29 pm

Most if not all Canadian provinces will need to lower wages, not raise them to remain competitive in world markets. Only the mindless have bought real estate in Canada in the last 2 years without paying attention to the state of global economic conditions. What could have even justified the vast price increases outside the wanton greed of sellers over the reckless stupidity of buyers . It sure wasn’t long term sustainability based on a growing economy and higher wages.
Does anyone even care that those who way overpaid for real estate in the last 2 or 3 years are now going to suffer long and hard learning their lessons the hard way? Should they?

#167 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.09.13 at 4:40 pm

#152 TEMPLE on 01.09.13 at 2:54 pm

It’s inbred within each of us Mr. Happy, you can deny it all you want, but deep down inside it’s instinct. – DA

DA, are you sure “inbred” is the term you want to use? I don’t think it means what you think it means. It explains an awful lot, though.

Writing and grammar are not my strong suit. But I understand what you are implying as my comprehension skills are, clearly by the so often misunderstanding of the Blog Dawgs, better than most of theirs. No, I think that is the right word although ‘inherant’ might have been better. ‘inbred’ can have two different meanings depending upon the context in which it was used. As I used it, it meant ‘normally existant at birth’ NOT ‘produced by inbreeding’ as you tried to spin it. But good attempt

#168 Snowboid on 01.09.13 at 4:46 pm

#125 Ogopogo on 01.09.13 at 1:04 pm…

I didn’t realize there was an early snow, but it sure looks like a lot fell in the last couple of days…

http://www.castanet.net/scenic-web-cams/weather-scenic-cam.php

I agree about the Kriegs, you should see some of their YouTube updates!

For example, the video version of what you posted…

http://wolfhomes.com/blog/category/newsletter-2/video-market-updates/

BTW, snow? Haven’t seen any since Sept 2010 – don’t miss it at all!

#169 Doug in London on 01.09.13 at 4:57 pm

There’s a lot of discussion here about the pros and cons of having children. If a couple are in a good relationship and want to have children, that’s fine. It’s their choice, not anyone elses. If, for whatever reason, you choose not to have kids that’s fine also. No one should make you feel guilty if you don’t have kids, especially in an overpopulated world where it’s already a challenge to feed 7 billion people and there’s not much reserve capacity. Disclosure: I am single, never married, and no kids.

There are many couples who are taking Garth’s advice and delaying having kids, while others aren’t having kids at all. Not only that but there are more single households than ever before in affluent countries like Canada. It’s also worth noting an issue that gets a lot of attention these days is gay/lesbian marriages, more gay rights, and Pride events not only in big cities but even in smaller cities like London, population 360,000. What’s going on here? Has anyone connected the dots and seen that people are reacting, either intentionally or unintentionally, to overpopulation? This is Nature’s way of dealing with the problem. It’s like the governors on those trucks on the Highway 401, which don’t allow the speed to go faster than slightly above 100 Km per hour.

#170 Snowboid on 01.09.13 at 5:00 pm

For those ‘Hallmark Poodles’ http://img3.etsystatic.com/000/0/6347333/il_fullxfull.282783451.jpg
that aren’t too good at using internet search tools…

http://forums.castanet.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=15451&start=45#p394925

That took me about 25 seconds to find yesterday, and there are plenty more ‘words of wisdom’ where this post came from!

#171 Ronaldo on 01.09.13 at 5:03 pm

#134 Western Observer -

”Where else in Canada can you ski & golf on the same day?”

Vernon and Kelowna for a start. Give it a few weeks tho. The hills shut down not for lack of snow but because everyone is hitting their favorite gold course. Gotta love it.

#172 rosie on 01.09.13 at 5:06 pm

#114
Oh my, sounds like some of those mothers didn’t get their Prince, or their granite and stainless.

#173 hangfire on 01.09.13 at 5:28 pm

#132 Brig…but isn’t it interesting that people are having the conversation about whether they can afford to have children in Canada…or not? The monstrous taxation trap in place to support the outrageous demands of the civil service has got averge canadians up against the wall…having to decide to either hold down three jobs and pay the huge cost of living in Canada…or having children.

Why do we hear the desperate whining for free day and early child care /education? The slippery slope will only lead to higher taxation onto the backs of those same desperate people who can’t afford a kid without a public subsidy…sad.

The solution is simple…government costs must come down….high taxes are denying Canadians to have children of their own.

#174 IM in C on 01.09.13 at 5:42 pm

@#126claudius emperor
I said there is never a -good- time. There is a time for everything, but that is the time you make. It’s called life. There is never a good time to buy a house. You decide if it’s time. Perhaps that is the definition of ‘house horny’.

#175 Dr. WAYNE on 01.09.13 at 5:51 pm

#163 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.09.13 at 4:04 pm

Did your 5 year old type that? …very impressive…has your receptionists brains !!!
=====================

First … your grammar needs improving.

Second … impressive, yes … I’ve got a ‘Dr.’ in front of my name and you don’t …

#176 not 1st on 01.09.13 at 5:56 pm

#156 The Prophet Elijah

Employer can’t make a person retire especially when they are not financially ready, or can they. I just think it will be a common trend for old folks to be hangin around way longer than anticapated. Some won’t retire because of fear of boredom.
____________

An employer can’t make someone retire, but they can fire their a** at the drop of a hat, or make the work environment so unpleasant for these people. Some retained experience is nice to have but companies are going to line their ranks up with geriatrics. The world is moving too fast to have a bunch of seniors at the helm of a company.

#177 Palmer Cortlandt on 01.09.13 at 5:58 pm

Andrew(aka Squidly)

You are really tedious and boring with your constant and incessant badgering of DA to post his income. I don’t think it’s going to happen, so give it a rest. Better yet, why don’t you set the example and post your income so we can see that you are not just the unemployed bum that you appear to be?

Your obsession with realtors makes me think you are none other than the latest reincarnation of Squidly who seemed to disappear about the same time that you appeared.

#178 Buy? Curious? on 01.09.13 at 6:09 pm

Delay having children? Don’t complain about immigration!

#179 sciencemonkey on 01.09.13 at 6:10 pm

@178
Heh, I’ve got a Dr. in front of my name too, too bad it’s a useless “of philosophy” type. :(

@180
Andrew mentioned in the comments a day or two ago that he is a $20/hr clerk.

#180 Old Man on 01.09.13 at 6:12 pm

#172 Doug in London – that was a great post, and am sorry you are single with no kids, but heard a rumour that the hotspot in your city is called the Wortley Roadhouse, and most of the women are single too; professionals; own homes; all age groups; and might be looking for a good man in life. Check it out on a Friday or Saturday night.

#181 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.09.13 at 6:25 pm

#178 Dr. WAYNE on 01.09.13 at 5:51 pm

#163 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.09.13 at 4:04 pm

Did your 5 year old type that? …very impressive…has your receptionists brains !!!
=====================

First … your grammar needs improving.

Second … impressive, yes … I’ve got a ‘Dr.’ in front of my name and you don’t …

==================================

Point (i)

You said ” First” ….thus you are an a$$hole.

Point (ii): Ok “Dr .” Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator. (see how easy that was ? )

==================================

JOKE:

A Dr. mixes up his pen with his rectal thermometer.

When he notices the mix- up he says ” some Dr. Wayne has my pen “.

#182 Dr. WAYNE on 01.09.13 at 6:32 pm

#166 Jim Lahey on 01.09.13 at 4:18 pm

===============

You’ve just answered your own question …

And …. yes …

#183 Andrew on 01.09.13 at 6:32 pm

180 Palm,

Not Squidly.
Not Asking for income.
Skip my comments if you need but I advise to read DA’s comments very carefully and then you will know why…
I’m not going anywhere.
This might get ugly.

#184 Investx on 01.09.13 at 6:32 pm

The real estate market is not monolithic and it is ill-informed to believe all areas will be impacted uniformly. There will be no 50%-off sales in Kits or The Beaches. The laws of supply and demand still rule. — Garth

Garth, haven’t these areas experienced inflated prices, due in part to the cheap credit and lax lending standards too? If those factors are removed along with the tightening of mortgage qualifications (especially the lack CMHC insurance on property over $1,000,000), why won’t such areas experience a significant correction?

The laws of reversion to the mean do not apply everywhere?

#185 DM in C on 01.09.13 at 6:34 pm

I call bullshit on this passive aggressive tripe from DA:

“Thank you to all those who sent me kind emails of support, encouraging me to continue posting contrarian points of view on this blog.”

I doubt anyone here sends you any emails, let alone ‘kind’ ones, so it appears you’re encouraging yourself to keep doing only what you want to anyway. Transparent and pathetic.

#186 Dr. WAYNE on 01.09.13 at 6:35 pm

#182 sciencemonkey on 01.09.13 at 6:10 pm

@178
Heh, I’ve got a Dr. in front of my name too, too bad it’s a useless “of philosophy” type. :(

=====================

Too bad … looks like higher education was a bust for you … and also depends what discipline it’s in.

#187 Inglorious Investor on 01.09.13 at 6:39 pm

Is America’s Housing Recovery Real?

In previous comments, I’ve questioned the validity of America’s apparent housing recovery, based on info that the real buyers of America’s homes were large firms who were actually buying large stocks of SFHs as rental properties.

Today we get a story from Mike Krieger via Zero Hedge that Blackstone, a private equity firm, is a major player in this market.

“Of course the market is improving. Not because citizens are buying, but because financiers with access to cheap credit are in a bidding war to become America’s slumlords.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-09/guest-post-america-meet-your-new-slumlord-wall-street

#188 Dr. WAYNE on 01.09.13 at 6:42 pm

#167 Penny Henny on 01.09.13 at 4:21 pm

===================

Hey Furst and Jim Bob … Ms. Hen is sure pissed at us to warrant the ‘feared’ DELETED label. Yet ANOTHER one who has a very limited grasp of humour and the study of human responses to statements made on blogs such as this.

#189 Ronaldo on 01.09.13 at 6:42 pm

#179 Not 1st -

”The world is moving too fast to have a bunch of seniors at the helm of a company.”

Tell that to Warren Buffet or Jimmy P.

#190 };-) aka D.A. on 01.09.13 at 6:49 pm

#173Snowboid on 01.09.13 at 5:00 pm
For those ‘Hallmark Poodles’ http://img3.etsystatic.com/000/0/6347333/il_fullxfull.282783451.jpg
that aren’t too good at using internet search tools…

http://forums.castanet.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=15451&start=45#p394925

That took me about 25 seconds to find yesterday, and there are plenty more ‘words of wisdom’ where this post came from!

Thank you very much for finding that post Snowboid. I appreciate your research skills and tenacity.

I must say, I am proud of that post to this day as it was most applicable at the time and now, more than four years later after the correction which I did foresee but thought would be greater than it was, it remains to be seen about the remainder my thoughts then. but I wouldn’t be surprised if it unfolded that way. Don’t go betting on it though as that would be speculation and you know how I loath speculation. Might as well go to Vegas.

“Our main business is not to see what lies dimly at a distance, but to do what lies clearly at hand” ~ Thomas Carlyle

#191 Inglorious Investor on 01.09.13 at 6:57 pm

No inflation?

Sixteen years ago it cost me $300 to have a hearing with the committee of adjustment for a home construction.

Today I talk a guy who wants to build a house one street over. He has to go to committee too. Cost: $3,100. (yikes)

#192 };-) aka D.A. on 01.09.13 at 7:02 pm

#173Snowboid on 01.09.13 at 5:00 pm

Fact is I think I sound rather good in those posts on that thread in the Castanet Forums. At the time (the month the Economic Crisis broke) I was quite concerned about our economic future. As it turns out we didn’t have nearly as much to worry about as we thought, Garth included.

http://forums.castanet.net/viewtopic.php? f=50&t=15451&start=45#p394925

As you all must recall Garth was at the time very doom and gloom on what he considered a bleak future. http://www.Xubia.ca ring a bell? Back in 2008 it was a very robust site compared to it’s current state. But hey we were all kinda concerned and I almost bought one of those windmills and generators.

#193 Bill Gable on 01.09.13 at 7:09 pm

Is Tsur Sommerville off his meds again?

Delusional. Incredible that Global doesn’t win the Dumbell award for Media outlets.

Of course, their main advertiser is RE/MAX.

There are so many of my boomer cohorts that thought that they would simply sell the house and retire.

Read the latest report from BMO and it paints a very “Turnerian” picture.

Don’t say Mr. Turner didn’t warn us.

Smoking Man and DA = dunno what planet you live on.

(*Fill in punchline here) ______________.

#194 Andrew on 01.09.13 at 7:16 pm

“….the correction which I did foresee but thought would be greater than it was, it remains to be seen about the remainder my thoughts then. but I wouldn’t be surprised if it unfolded that way.”

From DA Post 193.

God help us.
or Garth.

#195 JuliaS on 01.09.13 at 7:29 pm

#17 Keswickian

I am always amused with the number of shattered flat screen TV’s being offered for little below the original price on Craigslist. The owners go to great lengths, describing all of the irrelevant features, talking up value of something that no longer has any: “Comes with a remote, has all the original packaging, sound is working great etc.”

They assess the value of an item based on what they spent, as oppose to what its condition and the demand dictates.

Home sellers are indifferent.

#196 Patiently Waiting on 01.09.13 at 7:40 pm

Just checked the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board for daily sales / new listings / price changes. Essentially there are 6 – 7 new listings for every sale, and price reductions are the only price changes coming in … Here are the results:

New Listings: 106
Solds: 16
Price Changes: 53 (all reduced lower)

pw

#197 };-) aka D.A. on 01.09.13 at 7:44 pm

#188DM in C on 01.09.13 at 6:34 pm
I call bullshit on this passive aggressive tripe from DA:

“Thank you to all those who sent me kind emails of support, encouraging me to continue posting contrarian points of view on this blog.”

I doubt anyone here sends you any emails, let alone ‘kind’ ones, so it appears you’re encouraging yourself to keep doing only what you want to anyway. Transparent and pathetic.

No, DM in C I am by no means implying that I was inundated with emails of support. 5 emails actually, and another couple asking for me to share more of my thoughts, one on one, on Kelowna real estate.

Still very much a surprise as I thought I would encounter an overwhelming onslaught of hostile emails from the Blog Dawgs when Garth allowed that email address of mine to be posted in response to an inquiry. You can find it in yesterdays blog – or was it the day before. Snowboid I am sure can find it, she’s a sleuth, if you want to send me and expletive condemnation that Garth would not likely allow on his blog or merely that you are too polite to express your true feelings in a public forum.

Anyway nice to get the fan mail even if it wasn’t as many as Justin Bieber might receive in a day let alone and hour. Quite frankly, given the persona I portray on these blogs, I am surprised anyone would be so considerate toward me. Some are just more perceptive than Dawgs that bark at shadows.

#198 Deb on 01.09.13 at 7:48 pm

This is not an egg blog. — Garth

Thank you. I really needed a laugh today.

#199 };-) aka D.A. on 01.09.13 at 7:48 pm

#196 Bill Gable on 01.09.13 at 7:09 pm

Smoking Man and DA = dunno what planet you live on.

(*Fill in punchline here) ______________.

Oh Bill…. I am sure the Man would agree; sometimes we wonder about that ourselves.

#200 Hoof - Hearted on 01.09.13 at 7:52 pm

#196 Bill Gable on 01.09.13 at 7:09 pm

Is Tsur Sommerville off his meds again?
======================================

I’ m not sure if its meds or some cloning….

Once you see the same a$$hole front man in media, be suspicious. These PhD(pile high and deeper) are shills. Blah blah blah.

Universities are social engineering/cultural marxism schools… get a trade or something useful.

PS Ask Dr Wayne….he makes wayyy more money with his trade tickets in Interior Decorating and hairdressing than looking at a$$holes and prescribing a$$pirin all day.

#201 };-) aka D.A. on 01.09.13 at 7:58 pm

#173 Snowboid on 01.09.13 at 5:00 pm
For those ‘Hallmark Poodles’

http://img3.etsystatic.com/000/0/6347333/il_fullxfull.282783451.jpg

You are a girl! No guy would look up, let alone publicly link, such a pansy picture as that!!! Gesh.

#202 Rental Monkey on 01.09.13 at 8:04 pm

I think Dr. Waynes problem is that he has had all the women in life ask ‘Must you always be in such a rush to be FIRST?’ Therefore, he is confused by the allure of being FIRST on the blog for the night. He simply can’t differentiate between the BEDROOM and the BLOG.
He throws a little hissy fit each time it happens. Sooo predictable what the good doctor would be like at a party. Constantly circulating around the crowd, because all the grown ups don’t wanna play in his sandbox.
Simply, a little TWIT.
I suggest we band together and see if we can ship him a box of Preparation H. Who’s in?

Oh, and for the record Dr. Wanker- I have been FIRST!

#203 Smoking Man on 01.09.13 at 8:26 pm

196 Bill Gable

To Damn sick to chirp back,
enjoy next few days, chirping.

A spectacular essey coming why you and people who chirp smoking Man are such losses and slaves

#204 house burden on 01.09.13 at 8:32 pm

Macleans say housing bubble is bursting!!!

http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/01/09/crash-and-burn/

#205 Freedom First on 01.09.13 at 8:45 pm

#142 BU……..7 billion people on the planet. Your thinking is disturbing.

#206 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.09.13 at 8:46 pm

-
A clearer pic of what the inside of Alex Jones’ head looks like. A contrarian view, but a view nonetheless.
*
Smoking Man – Apple stock manipulated? Russian growth while the US stands pat; Welfare Take the guns first, then the money; Jobs Yes indeed, the govt. does create phantom jobs to bump the numbers up; 2:41 clip Health Care premiums soar prior to ObombaCare’s expensive care kicking in; The Welfare Bill just made a lot of mid- to poor people poorer, which leads to Present and future lives; Out of Gas Hawaii. Third para. down; Scotland Yard Several police stations joining with post offices; 6:14 clip One Army, One Police Force, One set of Laws. Kazahkstan and Belarus are already on board. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are in the queue, and Ukraine is in the middle of a tug of war between the EU and Russia; EU set to ban cash transactions over 500 euros; Ticking Time Bomb Ever-increasing dependence on food stamps.
*
Bovine Excrometer Alert! From the NY Times, and MLK and Obomba A picture can tell a thousand words; 4:06 clip Piers Morgan’s gun-control argument is flattened in four mins., 7:52 clip Gun confiscation / control first, dictatorship next, Nothing left to lose and 14:51 clip “Alex was on the show for one reason. The station his show is on is an affiliate of time warner. He is not an independent broadcaster. Alex is as much a part of the same system as Piers Morgan.”; India – Pakistan War? and Japan – China All are nuke armed, so the question becomes who is inflaming all sides? Who stands to gain? The Petraeus resignation had nothing to do with extra-marital behavior; BdB Member joining Obomba’s team? Baseball HoF Due to an over-abundance of steroids, no one is let in; Disney Surveillance Used for more than just finding out where lost kids are; Cloud Surfing There is no sovereignty in Europe. The centre is Brussels; Cold Weather disrupting lives, esp. if one is not used to it; Pop and diet pop One cause of depression.

#207 AK on 01.09.13 at 9:05 pm

205 Rental Monkey on 01.09.13 at 8:04 pm

“I think Dr. Waynes problem is that he has had all the women in life ask ‘Must you always be in such a rush to be FIRST?’ Therefore, he is confused by the allure of being FIRST on the blog for the night. He simply can’t differentiate between the BEDROOM and the BLOG.
He throws a little hissy fit each time it happens. Sooo predictable what the good doctor would be like at a party. Constantly circulating around the crowd, because all the grown ups don’t wanna play in his sandbox.
Simply, a little TWIT.
I suggest we band together and see if we can ship him a box of Preparation H. Who’s in?

Oh, and for the record Dr. Wanker- I have been FIRST!”

Dude, you need to get a life…

#208 jess on 01.09.13 at 9:06 pm

taxes the new charity

A Palm Beach heiress and charity benefactor has been a supporter of the Rehabilitation Center for Children and Adult and Opportunity Inc. Early Childhood Center, which provides education to children of needy families.) pleaded guilty Tuesday to using foreign bank accounts to hide more than $43 million from the IRS in one of the largest cases in the continuing U.S. crackdown on offshore tax evasion.

116 Mad Scientist “God’s watching”

Mark of the beast’ pupil loses case
A Texan student who refused to wear a badge with a radio tag that tracked her movements loses a federal court appeal against her school’s ID policy.

The radio chips track attendance, which in turn helps secure school funding.

But Andrea Hernandez, 15, stopped wearing the badge on religious grounds, saying it was the “mark of the beast”.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-20957587

#209 45north on 01.09.13 at 9:16 pm

Investx: There will be no 50%-off sales in Kits or The Beaches. The laws of supply and demand still rule. — Garth

Garth, haven’t these areas experienced inflated prices, due in part to the cheap credit and lax lending standards too? why won’t such areas experience a significant correction?

high demand areas in the US are still in high demand. I mean whether you live in Glace Bay NS or Ajijic Jalisco it’s still the same internet so what’s the attraction of big cities? I think it has to do with social interaction, think of DA stuck in Kelowna – he’s not really challenged – I think of the phrase “paper never refused ink” the standards to post on the internet are not high. If you want to be more than mediocre chances are that you have to be in the big city. Where it’s at.

#210 TurnerNation on 01.09.13 at 9:17 pm

It’s clear some blog dogs do not not practice the withdrawal method!

(Out of the Orange Guy’s shorts, into a balanced port.)

#211 Ogopogo on 01.09.13 at 9:20 pm

#171 Snowboid on 01.09.13 at 4:46 pm
#125 Ogopogo on 01.09.13 at 1:04 pm…

I didn’t realize there was an early snow, but it sure looks like a lot fell in the last couple of days…

http://www.castanet.net/scenic-web-cams/weather-scenic-cam.php

I agree about the Kriegs, you should see some of their YouTube updates!

For example, the video version of what you posted…

http://wolfhomes.com/blog/category/newsletter-2/video-market-updates/

BTW, snow? Haven’t seen any since Sept 2010 – don’t miss it at all!

Oh Lordy, watching the realtor daddy-son routine in that video gave me the chuckles, though not the kind the Kriegs intended, I’m sure. It’s amusing to see them label the video as being about the “dynamic” situation of Kelowna RE when by their own admission they admit that sales have plummeted.

I envy your lack of snow. Except when I go x-country skiing on Telemark or Nordic, like yesterday. But, boy, what a mess leaving Telemark! Enjoy the sun.

#212 Hoof - Hearted on 01.09.13 at 9:26 pm

#210 AK on 01.09.13 at 9:05 pm

Actually, I kinda like Dr Wayne….he fits the role of comic relief…..and at no cost(except maybe to ones sanity)……and why the majority should chose Naturopathic Doctors….versus the Rockefellers ” bought and paid for ” voodoo b*tches

#213 stu on 01.09.13 at 9:47 pm

from the book conswequences from my hero DOn Stott. This basically summarizes what America needs to do to change the ship. Til then I bet against them :

Zero population growth” (ZPG) has been achieved by productive societies around the world. It has never been reached by the worthless, who live for instant gratification, rather than thinking and planning for the future. The result is that the worthless are reproducing like bunny rabbits and lemmings, and they and their offspring are being supported by welfare. If the support and subsidy were removed, the worthless might think twice about continual unprotected copulation and reproduction. In other words, a worthless person would have to either become useful to the degree of supporting themselves, with no outside assistance from government, or bear the consequences …which may be death. Everyone dies eventually. Premature death, self caused, would be in perfect harmony with nature.

#214 Vangrrl on 01.10.13 at 1:17 am

Holy cow I nearly missed one of my fave debates! What really made me laugh is the evolution/best suited to reproduce nonsense. So where does invitro fit in?
If the people here declaring that raising children is the be all and end all then why don’t they do something truly, absolutely selfless and adopt an unwanted, underprivileged child?? Oh riiiight, because most just really want a mini-me to plaster facebook with.
I’m so thankful I’ll always have a sense of purpose regardless of whether I add to our disturbing population count. From the sounds of it that sense of purpose is fairly rare… Hm, perhaps those of us who do are the most evolved ;)

#215 JL on 01.10.13 at 5:03 am

I second #2 Turner Nation…. Garth isn’t high time you shut down the Okanagan malarky she keeps pitching?? You have not mentioned it in months unless I missed something unless of course you will be coming here again….That would be awesome….

#216 TurnerNation on 01.10.13 at 9:35 am

Would you want DA on your side of the negotiating table? Would he pound his chest and hurl excrement?
Maybe.

#217 Snowboid on 01.10.13 at 12:30 pm

#214 Ogopogo on 01.09.13 at 9:20 pm…

Daddy Krieg comes off much as I would picture the ‘golden’ poodle of Kelowna RE, but a bit more like a pup (inside joke).

I occasionally miss downhill and cross-country, but cycling and hiking have turned out to be reasonable replacements!

BTW, cloudy today! And some darn Arctic air heading our way, some cold (13C) days for a week before we are back to the 20s.

Talking to some AZ neighbours at a party a couple of evenings ago, they were talking about seeing you near Rattlesnake Island last summer – turned out they spend the summers in Peachland – that makes three couples within a block of us that are from the Okanagan!

#218 Shane on 01.10.13 at 6:12 pm

Quick Question:

There is the preferred share etf ‘PPS’ – PowerShares Canada Preferred Share Index.

Are there any others?

thx

Sure are, like XPF. — Garth

#219 Buy The Dip! – “Our families have been pressuring us to buy a place as the prices are coming down.” | Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive on 01.11.13 at 11:49 am

[...] “We got married 1.5 years ago. My husband doesn’t believe in buying a place, so currently, we are renting in downtown Vancouver. We have combined saving of $150,000 plus some assets in gold. We have a combined household income of $115,000. Initially, our goal was to save one of our salaries but realistically it hasn’t happened yet. We plan to start a family soon and will need a bigger place. Our families have been pressuring us to buy a place as the prices are coming down. Since both of us work in downtown Vancouver, we don’t want to move to suburbs like Surrey where houses are cheaper but has longer commute. Do you think prices in North Vancouver will come down in the near future?” – Jasmine, as relayed by Garth Turner, greaterfool.ca, 8 Jan 2013 [...]