Numbies

idiot

Welcome to the GreaterFool, Silly Person© edition. This is a rare but meaningful opportunity for you to heap ridicule, abuse and even sympathy upon people who are probably too dumb to own money. However, that makes them perfect candidates for borrowing it, then buying real estate with less attention than they’d put into shopping for sumptuous butt-lifting jeans. Trust me, I know.

Here’s Gail. She’s screwed.

I’m at the end of my wits and hope you can offer a solution.

I bought a new condo (12 unit building) last August and put the for sale sign up three weeks later. The condo was advertised with concrete floors and party wall adjoining the bedroom. I cannot sleep in either of the 2 bedrooms due to footstep noise, snoring, bed creaking. Each footstep reverberates—the force depending upon who is walking. I cannot tolerate this and want to sell – but the builder slashed the remaining 3 units price to $269,000 and I paid $312,000.

Is my only recourse to sell at a huge loss?  I cannot complain too much about the noise as it will appear in the minutes. Help Garth! Thanks, Gail.

Let’s recap. You bought in August for $312,000 and put it back on the market in September. It’s now January, and no sale. Comparables are being offered for $269,000, which means yours won’t find a buyer until (a) all of the other units sell or (b) you trade for less. So assuming you find a buyer at $265,000, after commission (and there may also be a mortgage-breaking penalty) you net about $250,000 – for a loss of at least $62,000, or 20%.

Good work, Gail. It takes a special talent to toss a fifth of your money in five months. You should consider working for the Department of Finance.

Seriously, don’t buy something for $312,000 that you have not thoroughly investigated. A good inspector would be able to flag too-thin partitions, and perhaps knocking on a few doors in the building would have yielded some useful comments.

What to do now? It’d be cheaper to foam the inside of your unit, buy earplugs and learn to tap dance.

Now, say hi to Larry. Poor, confused Larry.

I have a demanding job that pays OK, and I’ve managed to save a few hundred thousand dollars, and have no other assets of any significant value. My job has brought me to Saskatoon, and if I purchase a home in the area by the end of January my employer will cover 100% of the home inspection and legal/land title fees associated with the purchase.  I am considering purchasing in either Saskatoon or Warman, which is a small community located approximately 15 kilometers north of Saskatoon.

Through reading your blog, I realize that there are substantial risks which exist in the Canadian real estate market, particularly in British Columbia and Toronto.  Saskatchewan is currently benefiting from a natural resources boom, is growing, and has its deficit under control.  That said, I realize that Saskatchewan is not immune to volatile global economic influences/problems, nor is it immune to newly introduced mortgage regulation changes. While I don’t believe that the Saskatoon and area real estate market has much room to increase substantially in value over the short term, all indicators seem to suggest that it won’t substantially decrease in value over the short term either.

Anyway, I would very much appreciate your advice on this difficult decision that I am needing to make fairly quickly.  Thanks very much Garth, and Happy New Year!

Yeah, sure, Larry. It’s different in Saskatoon, where the average household makes less income than in Oshawa and the forecast high for Friday is minus 20. The population is just 225,000 and the average house costs $338,000, or 27% more than in 2008. In all of Saskatchewan, there are only 539,000 working people, making Regina and Saskatoon (and Metropolitan Warman) potentially far more volatile real estate markets than places like the GTA or Montreal.

In short, higher house prices have been the result of people like you drinking the Kool-Aid, not from soaring incomes, big immigration or swelling commodities. In fact, oil, gas and potash values are a fraction of what they used to be. Once again, we have a housing market pumped up on emotion and debt, not economics.

And that fabulous company offer? A $300 home inspection and $500 legals? You’re one cheap date.

Finally, let’s welcome Darpan to this select club.

I have been following your blog closely for 6 months now and would like to thank you for all your useful information. I married two years ago and at that time purchased in a hot market a semi detached 2000sq ft home in north Brampton countryside for $400,000. I was told from a local real estate agent that I could possibly sell for $430,000. I understand that the market is going to crash, and the value on my mortgage may very well be more than the value of my house. I have a prime minus 1, five-year term/35 year amortization mortgage. Me and my wife are not interested in taking a loss, and are also not totally pleased with our home, problem is that I work from my basement as a personal trainer, and renting a unit can become very costly. I am in a dilemma Garth! Please provide me some input as to what I can do to protect my hard earned dollars :-)

First, Darpan baby, the realtor dude’s lying to you. The nether reaches of Brampton are more likely to revert to corn than grow equity. You’ll be lucky to get your money out, minus commission, which means a loss. But this could pale in comparison to what the hood will be fetching two years hence.

The best strategy is to bail, whatever a greater fool is willing to pay you for it. You’re living in a mistake – a transportation no-man’s-land where it can take 90 minutes to commute into downtown Toronto, and the municipality has all the cachet of a vintage Wal-Mart. God meant this for cows, Darpan, not guys sweating in basements.

Get out. Now.

Applications for the next Silly Person© edition are now being accepted. Email your inane questions to [email protected] No DNA, please.

222 comments ↓

#1 garthturnerdinglehiemersmit on 01.07.13 at 9:57 pm

DELETED

#2 Looking For a Home on 01.07.13 at 9:57 pm

1st and last First?

Yeah. First. And last first. Savour it. — Garth

#3 In the cold from Toronto on 01.07.13 at 10:07 pm

I like D’s lack of interest in losing money… I have a lack of interest in dying…

#4 Bryan Berndt on 01.07.13 at 10:13 pm

A blood bath? Lol, the blood bath has barely begun!

#5 John on 01.07.13 at 10:15 pm

Darpan, there is no such thing as the “Brampton countryside”……especially when said countryside contains semis. You’ve been duped.

#6 DaleFromCalgary on 01.07.13 at 10:17 pm

Just got my 2013 assessment from the City of Calgary, which is based on the July 1, 2012, fair market value. Up to $515,000 from $465,000 last year. My house is a 1950s bungalow paid off in 1997, so I’m alright. Still several newly-built vacant houses in the neighbourhood (Altadore), some of which are on their third realtor.

My house is only 30% of my assets and can be converted back into a duplex rental in a day. But I look at all those two-story infills and wonder how those yuppies will turn out.

#7 bricklayer on 01.07.13 at 10:18 pm

wonder what percentage of the general population would fit your silly person edition? 1%? 3%? 7%? let’s take a guess……

#8 TurnerNation on 01.07.13 at 10:19 pm

I think the term is Muppets? Or is that in the UK.

#9 Tim on 01.07.13 at 10:21 pm

Garth you sure have a way with words. I hope you don’t talk to your clients like this! These people are naive, but you don’t have to make them feel like fools after they know they’ve really screwed up.

How about the chump from the Royal Bank. Care to call him on his bullshit answer about the potential housing bubble?

#10 Realtors in a panic on 01.07.13 at 10:21 pm

Brampton is facing a foreclosure problem as people who should have never bought a home in the middle of no where need to sell or go bankrupt. BIL lives there and hopes the bus doesn’t reach them. You have people in townhall screaming for no transportation. Lol can you believe what a backwards town/city brampton has become.

#11 Mr. Anderson on 01.07.13 at 10:22 pm

It would be funny if it wasn’t sad.

#12 A Smith on 01.07.13 at 10:23 pm

Garth, I think your anti-suburban slant is a bit off base. There is a correct price for everything, and that is NOT the current SFH pricing in the GTA, so we agree there. If longer commutes etc are an issue, then that should be reflected in the pricing. Hopefully we’ll soon see prices that reflect actual value the 905. My guess is a 35-40% reduction.

That said, there is a lot of business that goes on in the 905. As a 905 resident, I don’t personally know anyone who commutes into Toronto. They all work in the 905. I’m sure there are plenty of people who do commute to the 416, but you’ve been making some sweeping generalizations in various blog posts about this subject.

I have to travel around a lot for my work, and the offices and industrial businesses I need to go to are scattered all over the 905… That isn’t going to change.

There’s a lot more job growth in 905 office parks than in downtown TO. Did you know that more people now commute into Mississauga to work than commute out?

Also – I’ve noticed you haven’t mentioned two important contributors to the housing bubble on this blog. One is the “smart growth” policies that have artificially created scarcity of land, driving up prices. Another is aggressive zoning policy, which has served to distort the market further. This is exactly what happened in costal California, which incidentally was one of the worst hit areas in the US housing crisis.

On a related note, I’m noticing BIG drops in SFH rental rates in Milton specifically. This could be quite telling… 3500 sq/ft house on MLS for $2200/mo. Earlier in 2012, that would be been $3,000 easily.

Well, it sure does feel good to be a renter right now (sold my house in May 2012, no losses).

#13 not 1st on 01.07.13 at 10:24 pm

There are so many 3 or 4 story condo units going up that are just 2×4 construction with a little R12 fibreglass between the units. I rented one for a while and it wasn’t the footsteps that made me crazy, it was the crazy wailing by the upstairs couple while they knocked boots every night.

Word to the wise, detached on your own piece of land is the way to go. If you just have to buy a condo, get all concrete construction including walls. You will pay a small premium for this but its worth it. Otherwise if you are in a wood building, end unit, top floor is what you go after.

#14 Ralph Cramdown on 01.07.13 at 10:26 pm

When real estate agents talk about people who “don’t have to sell,” these are the type of situations they’re talking about.

#15 not 1st on 01.07.13 at 10:29 pm

Garth, that “financial analyst” is clearly smoking too much BC bud or something. His senses have left him.

#16 Marco from Van on 01.07.13 at 10:29 pm

You concisely gave a recount of macro economics, national economics and today the little guy’s micro economics. You included demographics and after reducing the delicious Jus you spiced it with the clear spice of common ignorance.

This is NO different to the same recepies that baked the US, UK, Irish and many other markets.

People are easily spun to believe they are entitled to perpetual growth. This was reinforced by market shaping through lax lending and while that brought forward demand and growth it also increased the effect of the inevitable correction.

If there is a fire in economy class the threat is equally dangerous to those in first class.

As we (Canadians) sing under our personal debt burden the hit on the RE pyramid will be felt everywhere.

Sure, there will always be multimillion properties exchanging hands between gabillionaires, but unless you are one of them that will not be relevant to your circumstance.

Watch the HAM flow to the next speculative bubble and out of Canada…

#17 JR on 01.07.13 at 10:33 pm

The ‘Temporary Foreign Worker Program’ may boost GDP, and be good for business profitability, however it is not in the best interest of a fair and just Canada that i am proud of. This program will lower wages for Canadians as employers will not be motivated to pay wages that attract workers from Canada if there are none or underskilled applicants. Atleast slavery gave workers food and shelter included.
“between 2007 and 2011, the program created a total of almost 30 per cent of all new jobs — this at a time when the government, grappling with the financial crisis, claimed that creating jobs for Canadians was a key priority”
http://thetyee.ca/News/2013/01/07/Canada-Migrant-Workers/

#18 Simon Sez on 01.07.13 at 10:40 pm

Michael Levy is a proven liar http://powellriverpersuader.blogspot.com/2010/06/michael-levy-lies-on-cknw-and-was.html and a stooge for vested interests. How he can give an interview and emphatically state there is no bubble and that prices only went up because of demand. Period. and of course BPOE status. Is an absolute travesty and a real demonstration of snake oil sales run amok.
Would love to see this clip play on a loop when Levy is scaring the crap out of senior citizens so they buy bullion from him at Campbells “World Outlook Conference”

#19 Dr. WAYNE on 01.07.13 at 10:41 pm

When I read … “Welcome to the GreaterFool, Silly Person© edition. This is a rare but meaningful opportunity for you to heap ridicule, abuse and even sympathy upon people who are probably too dumb …” I was joyous. I figured you’d opened up this forum to attack the silly people here … I anticipated “to know it”, but then I read “to own money” … deflation set in. Oh well, it was a short-lived foray into wild expectation. So … let’s carry on.

#20 X on 01.07.13 at 10:42 pm

Gail – would it not cost much less to hire a contractor to spray foam the walls and ceiling spaces to further insulate against sound. You may even be able to get the builder to do this for you if you make enough noise.

#21 Mithan on 01.07.13 at 10:43 pm

Saskatoons entire growth now is based on home building. Regina is no different. Meanwhile, unlike a year ago, sales are down ~30% at a time when interest rates are at/ near record lows and the economy is “booming”. What happens next?

Oh btw, 10% of saskatoons workforce is in construction according to stats Canada. Almost the same is directly employed by construction related industries.

When this slows down, the same boom that helped the city will hurt it.

#22 Old Man on 01.07.13 at 10:44 pm

#12 A Smith – as you claiming a 35 to 40% in 905, so what are you ranting about? You live there, so by your own words will be hooped, so what is your point?

#23 K on 01.07.13 at 10:45 pm

SPILTBONGWATER You are right ! But as usual from Garth….a funny photo ! All be they often enhansed

#24 Fleabitten Monkey on 01.07.13 at 10:46 pm

I recall seeing Michael Levy declare on the news some time ago that the cycle of making money on residential real estate is over. I wish I could pull up a link for it.

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#26 K on 01.07.13 at 10:50 pm

Hey Tim
I dont think Garth is being mean to these people that email into the blog. They are ficticious ! He changes the names to protect the smart from the idiots !

#27 Hoof-Hearted on 01.07.13 at 10:51 pm

Hey Dr. Wayne

” DELETED”

#28 Lifetime renter on 01.07.13 at 10:52 pm

Re the video: real estate “economists” like Mr. Levy are truly desperate or delusional when they argue a re-inflation of Vancouver’s housing market because the Stalinist bureaucracy governing China has suddenly embraced democracy. This has to be by far the strangest argument for the sustaining of the bubble that I have yet to hear.

#29 Old Man on 01.07.13 at 10:55 pm

Sorry it was #13 aka A Smith who says he lives in 905 and is hoping for a reduction in 905 for real estate values down 35 to 40%, so does he rent or own? H

#30 Dave on 01.07.13 at 10:58 pm

Gail wins!!!! Her story is truly unbelievable…

#31 Frustrated Kiwi on 01.07.13 at 11:09 pm

Well here downunder in Auckland our bubble appears to continue unabated:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=10857904
On the topic of today, I have observed a new disturbing trend that I haven’t heard about in other markets. Young couples who are priced out of homes are buying an investment property that is too crappy for them to live in personally but at least “gets them on the property ladder” while they continue to rent. We’re talking small single family homes in mostly undesirable neighbourhoods that can be rented out with as little as possible upkeep $ put into them. Brother of a good friend has done this recently and colleague at work is looking into it (I have tried to talk her out of it of course). Other colleagues own up to four investment properties – all single family homes because “they’re not making any more land” you know (we had our own condo price crash about a decade ago). The risk is enormous and no one seems to see it!

#32 think again on 01.07.13 at 11:09 pm

How about this one…

http://cornwall.kijiji.ca/c-real-estate-houses-for-sale-SELL-ANY-HOUSE-IN-90-DAYS-OR-ILL-BUY-IT-W0QQAdIdZ428482590

#33 Smoking Man on 01.07.13 at 11:11 pm

Gartho donn’t about US Real Estate, you catch alex jones on Piers Morgan ………

Jones calling for 1776……wow……………..

His followers all fallen middle class, with guns….who hate the elite…………………..not to mention cops and army grunts…….

He has 10′s of millions of followers …..

If they make a law to go get the guns……….blog dogs stay away from usa…………..

#34 A Smith on 01.07.13 at 11:12 pm

@Old Man

I’m not hoping for anything. I exited the market in May 2012 (i.e. I owned a house up until then) and I currently rent a single family home. I didn’t lose any money. Home ownership means nothing to me, but I might buy if prices ever return to reality.

I’m guess 35% based on fundamentals, if there isn’t significant meddling by the gov’t. If I’m wrong, it’s no loss to me. I’m just here for the discussion.

#35 Rikky on 01.07.13 at 11:12 pm

RE is screwed big time!! Garth is right!!

#36 Smoking Man on 01.07.13 at 11:18 pm

#22 Mithan on 01.07.13 at 10:43 pm

One of my kids works in regina, paying crazy amount of rent, for a room in a house that’s worth 125k..his rent pays the morrtgage, the other two in house are pure profit.

if you would only pay an old cell phone bill 200 bill, and clear his credit, he could easly by the place.

I refuse to pay it, you got too take your score seriously, and unless pay a bit with disappointment you wont learn

#37 Bottoms_Up on 01.07.13 at 11:25 pm

Cardboard floor condo — ooops!

Larry, there are 550,000 workers in the city of Ottawa, for perspective

Darpan, here’s a large semi in north Brampton for $380k:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12593396&PidKey=1214219347

#38 Sebee on 01.07.13 at 11:28 pm

We talk about boomers cashing in their real estate en masse. What about them cashing in their retirement plans, equities? Large pension plans cashing in to pay their ever growing obligations? Will that not impact the markets? Will that not get cashed first before RE?

80% of Boomers own houses. 11% own equities. Figure it out. — Garth

#39 Inglorious Investor on 01.07.13 at 11:28 pm

Michael Levy (first take):

“Vancouver is the best city on earth. It may be the only true city on earth. I mean, who the hell would not want to live in Vancouver? Or invest here? Or live here AND invest here? Or invest here THEN live here?

“Vancouver is not in a bubble. Prices have only tripled since 2000, and it’s all because of demand. To make a bubble you need soap and water and one of those little plastic sticks with the ring on the end, not demand.

“Actually, very few people know this, but technically speaking, Vancouver is a special administrative region of China, like Hong Kong. But Hong Kong has nothing on Van. And besides, being an SAR is not enough; we must take it further. So I have established a committee to make Vancouver legally a suburb of Beijing.

“So naturally, laws on the Chinese mainland will impact the Lower Mainland. When Chinese laws change, that makes Chinese people more free. Naturally, free-loving Hans (and some Uyghurs) across China will want to purchase houses in Vancouver. Not to mention the helicopter people. I predict in the future we will see an influx of people in helicopters pretending to be Chinese citizens flying all over the beautiful Vancouver skies buying homes at well above market value. It’s only natural. After all, it is Vancouver.

“How’s that?”

#40 Bo Xilai on 01.07.13 at 11:29 pm

Michael Levy has now become an expert in Chinese domestic politics and seems to know the economic policy intentions of the new leadership. Amazing how Global TV BC is able to find these real estate experts/Chinese political scientists all in one package.

#41 Marko Juras on 01.07.13 at 11:34 pm

Old wise Garth. What do you predict the SFH average in Victoria, B.C., for 2013?

Past 5 years…

2008 – 583,701
2009 – 580,748
2010 – 629,925
2011 – 613,839
2012 – 603,298

Still waiting for your cheque, or the apology. — Garth

#42 Keeping the Faith on 01.07.13 at 11:34 pm

Please re-title “Fools, Idiots and Morons”

Wake me up in 2014 when the prices nationally have dropped an average of 15% and the likes of Vic, Van and GTA have dropped 30%, 25% and 10% respectively.

HAHAHAHA … Fools, Idiots and Morons!

#43 Patiently Waiting on 01.07.13 at 11:39 pm

Greater fools abound, as the debt junkies appear to know no bounds in former HAM heaven White Rock … here are a few of the latest debt junkies that have caught wind of the coming market correction and are trying to escape before it’s too late … I hope they are feeling lucky …

1) MLS F1221634
Listed at $3,618,000
Purchased for $1.8 mil in 2006
Assessed Value $2,620,000
Grossley over priced – my estimated selling price … 2.0 to 2.4 mil depending on HAM …
1st Mortgag $1,077,500 at prime + 1/2%
2nd Mortgage $210,000 at 14%
3rd Mortgage $650,000 at 10%
Registered Crown Debt $10,075 (as of Dec. 2010) to Ministry of finance for not paying Medicle Service Premiums
… after commissions when this sells they will walk away with very little if any equity …

2) MLS F1300317
Listed at $1,788,000
Purchased in April 2011 for $1,210,000
Assessed Value $1,195,000
My guess as to eventual selling price: $1.2 – 1.3 mil (again depends on HAM – which appears to be in short supply …)
1st Mortgage $858,000 at Prime + 7% (so 10% at todays prime rate) … who pays rates like this when you can get 5 year money at less than 3%?

I am increasingly convinced that we will see a hard landing in the lower mainland when I see the debt levels that so many have taken on in recent years …

pw

#44 POOR TO MAN on 01.07.13 at 11:39 pm

Re the video: real estate “economists” like Mr. Levy are truly desperate or delusional when they argue a re-inflation of Vancouver’s housing market because the Stalinist bureaucracy governing China has suddenly embraced democracy. This has to be by far the strangest argument for the sustaining of the bubble that I have yet to hear.
—————————————————
Mr. Levy is a silly person.

Actually, Xi Jinping declares he is going to stop the corruption problem in China ASAP. All the government officials in China are so damn scare now because 99.99999999999% of them have involved in corruption.

The custom department also apply a new stricter policy on checking the validity of import/export invoice. A sign of stricter currency control.

Actually, the inflow of black money from China may be disappeared after 2013 Spring.

#45 SMC on 01.07.13 at 11:39 pm

Another funny guy…

Sales are only part of the equation. What about prices? Are they up, down or indifferent? Compared to last year, High Rise condo prices are up almost 16%, while Low Rise prices are down 2%. Resale housing prices were also up on average 1.6 to 4.6%, though down slightly in City of Toronto. All told, not much change.

What does it all mean? It would seem the peaks and valleys in sales will even out over the longer term and prices will creep up steadily. Neither good nor bad, and certainly not as ugly as some would have you think.

http://urbantoronto.ca/news/2012/12/fall-real-estate-numbers-good-bad-ugly

Year-over-year prices mean little when the high mark was eight months ago. — Garth

#46 dutch4505 on 01.07.13 at 11:42 pm

fraud investigations will be up soon. just had a long discussion with an government investigator. the government is reviewing a chartered accountant in surrey bc who provided hundreds of false financial statements so that clients could get house mortgages. the bonus is that the chartered acocuntant’s brother is a mortgage broker. i thought this stuff only happened in the usa.

#47 Rikky on 01.07.13 at 11:43 pm

Mike Levy runs a gold shop. Down with gold!!

#48 GTA Girl on 01.07.13 at 11:46 pm

Hoping Garth will get a letter from all the Vaughan luxury townhome owners, who bought at $650k and just learned the garage Size won’t fit the average SUV/minivan, unless you park and exit through the rear hatch door…

….and the builder neglected to put firewall insulation in between the units…..again

#49 GTA Girl on 01.07.13 at 11:51 pm

Or he will get letters from the Thornhill McMansions who all expected their homes to be suburban escapes worth over a million dollars…but don’t realize city council approved 6 12 story condo projects on the corners entering their area.

Hope they love shade. So close the condo residents can practice their throwing arms by tossing stuff into the home owners pools.

Don’t you just love the Places To Grow Act???

#50 mark on 01.07.13 at 11:54 pm

Google Michael Levy and see all the great things you find.

#51 The Prophet Elijah on 01.07.13 at 11:58 pm

Well lets hope this is finally it, its been a long haul since this pathetic blog started in 2008.

#52 45north on 01.08.13 at 12:05 am

Darpan: I work from my basement as a personal trainer

you know Darpan, in order to keep working as a personal trainer you got to take the loss.

#53 Mojo on 01.08.13 at 12:06 am

More analysis on Edmonton pretty please!

#54 Furst on 01.08.13 at 12:08 am

#20 Dr. WAYNE on 01.07.13 at 10:41 pm
_______________________________________
FUURRRSSSSTTT! Dr. Wayne, real estate is good from a long-term perspective but to acquire it, people should not take on prohibitive debt. Hope I taught you something today. I have more friends than you and my hair is much more lustrous than yours.

#55 Smoking Man on 01.08.13 at 12:09 am

Reading the comments on many sights re Alex Vs Piers alex came across as a raving lunatic

but his thumbs up vs thumbs down, he’s winning 2 to 1.

Oh elite,,, you’re in deep shit….Only I can save your asses, where is that check book………………….

Smoking Man light years ahead of the curve………………..

#56 Dr. WAYNE on 01.08.13 at 12:10 am

#28 Hoof-Hearted on 01.07.13 at 10:51 pm

Hey Dr. Wayne

” DELETED”

======================

Hey Goofy … Haven’t you got anything more to say than ‘DELETED’ … too bad … I know, it is a literary challenge for you.

#57 Fodork on 01.08.13 at 12:10 am

The sad part is that the taxpayers will be bailing these underwater mortgages out. Do you really think the govt will let a massive foreclosure event happen? In the the end the lenders and RE agents win each time.
I work for an American Bank- so lets take an example from today’s news: US banks settled foreclosure lawsuits for several billions. Underwater homeowners will sell because the lawsuit payments will still leave them seriously underwater. In a few months I can guarantee you that my bank will be lending to organizations which scoop up these properties for sale at incredible prices. Who wins in the end? The RE agents, lawyers and the lenders.

#58 45north on 01.08.13 at 12:16 am

Bo Xilai: Michael Levy has now become an expert in Chinese domestic politics and seems to know the economic policy intentions of the new leadership.

pretty funny

#59 Boombust on 01.08.13 at 12:17 am

#51 mark on 01.07.13 at 11:54 pm Google Michael Levy and see all the great things you find.

Levy?

What a laff…,

#60 Furst on 01.08.13 at 12:20 am

Pre-emptive post to Dr. Wayne’s response to #55 Furst on 01.08.13 at 12:08 am
_____________________
I read minds or maybe just have a knack for reading people. Dr. Wayne, my response to the post you’re about to write after reading my post is this. Please note that your post has not been published yet but it’s predictable.

Why are you laughing? What do you find so funny? I am not an a$$hole! No matter how many times you use $ in words and call FURST posters a$$holes, it does not and will never make you better than anyone on this blog. Seek within yourself to find true happiness. I smell better than you.

#61 TCH on 01.08.13 at 12:22 am

“In short, higher house prices have been the result of people like you drinking the Kool-Aid, not from soaring incomes, big immigration or swelling commodities.”

Statement of the week and it’s only Tuesday.

#62 Lee on 01.08.13 at 12:30 am

When I was in air cadets and we got caught screwing around I used to say ‘Sorry, we’re from Saskatchewan.’ People would nod sagely and let us off, hope that provides some perspective.

#63 Saskatoon-Living on 01.08.13 at 12:31 am

Really Larry, Warman??? I feel sorry for the suckers that buy houses 25km from S’toon…………at the same price as being in S’toon. I also feel sorry for the suckers buying in S’toon too. If you like small town gossip and everyone knowing your business, buy in Warman. If not, don’t be a Larry.

#64 espressobob on 01.08.13 at 12:32 am

#20 Dr. Wayne,

Please forgive our insolence Oh great one! Please great master, show Us the deflation of our ways. I bow before thee.

#65 Smoking Man on 01.08.13 at 12:33 am

Am I ever glad I down sized, traded the Mercedes for a pick up with roll down windows, I got air, could not give that up…..my boat is small, but my powers of observation superior……..

Them good old boys are pissed, poorer, and looking for zillionairs to take out….

the elite are sipping madam Atwa, cool aid, happens…

remember I have proven over and over that I am years ahead of the curve….

fellow zillionairs, long branch

#66 Interesting Times on 01.08.13 at 12:34 am

A very hard landing is coming for many, make sure you protect yourself and family! The 50% RE Crash is coming quickly and you better have at least 6 months to 1 year salary on hand to ride out this crash if you are a victim of this Ponzi Scheme. Garth these HGTV Virgins that you posted about today are one of the 70% that will get crushed by RE.

HGTV Virgins get out there and start low balling these realtards by 50%. Don’t waste your time going to open houses when you could just sit on the MLS and low ball these used car salespeople by email. Get out there and get your revenge. Show them that you are not as stupid as the show protrays you!

- Europe already in recession/depression, Japan and US right behind them. This will have a negative feed back loop across the global economy.

- jobs being lost everywhere and the Canadian economy is slowing down. Watch BNN and learn about the layoffs happening everyday or just read the business section it is all there for you my virgins. Educate yourself! To bad many of you just read the life, sports and entertainment section and don’t educate yourselves.

- austerity starting already in Canada. Many in government jobs will be bye, bye. Federal gov’t firing 20,000 alone in Canada. All gov’t jobs under attack.

- manufacturing jobs have moved to Asia and back to the USA. Canadians can’t compete with the New America where the factory worker now makes $12.00 to $15.00 an hour and can buy a nice home for $100,000-$200,000K. You are so screwed in Canada! Latest victim is GM Canada who will be closing the Camaro Plant in Oshawa & moving it back to the US. If RIM does not launch there new product properly in 2013 they will be gone also. What will Canada be left with? I guess over priced housing that nobody can afford. Wake up Canada!

- 70% of CDN living pay cheque to pay cheque and have no savings and over 70% have no pensions

- 60% of boomers 60 years and older entering retirement in a shit load of debt. Also, a lot of these boomer fools co-signed for their kids $800,000 Mc Mansions. The banksters will wipe the floor clean with both the kids and parents after this 50% RE Crash when they both lose there homes!

- empty condos being built everywhere and will be going for 50% off soon. HGTV Virgins will be crushed!!! Many HGTV Virgins are going bankrupt at Trump Towers right now in Toronto, what happened to RE only goes up? Remember Toronto was going to be the next New York or London. Yes HGTV Virgins you drank the RE Kool Aid from your used car saleperson (RE AGENT).

- empty homes all over the MLS, can you say power of sales have started, soon 50% off will be coming to Canada.

- for lease signs everywhere in business districts and commercial areas, I guess business has moved out of Canada.

- Canadians are 164 percent in debt! More than the US, Ireland, Spain , and UK when they had there RE Crash.

- Over 8 months of dropping RE sales. Next thing to drop will be prices by 50%.

- over 70% of mortgages in Canada are 5% or 0 down CHMC mortgages. Can you say high risk and backed by the taxpayer. When this baby blows up kiss your social services good bye. This is what the in action plan looks like. We supported our banks with free taxpayer dollars to give out loans to people with no money creating a RE ponzi scheme 10 times bigger than the US, Spain, Ireland etc. Even your hero Carnival Carney who left interest rates at 1% is bailing on Canada to go to London as he knows this crash will be of epic porpotions due to is 1% rates and you treat this guy like a rock star. Also the CON gov’t was involved by giving FREE money to all HGTV virgins with a heart beat aka O down, 5% down, 40 yr, then 35 yr then 30 yr and now 25 yr. Can you yell out PONZI Scheme. Greatest transfer of wealth from the middle class to the Elite aka bankers.

- And remember a home is only worth what a buyer will pay.

- the realtards, brokers, gov’t, banks and builders are in full out panic.

The 50% crash is here my virgins. Get out there and start low balling as the time is now for your revenge. Don’t sign up for bank slavery like the other 70% of the virgins in Canada. They are screwed for life now as they were sold the Koolaid by the RE industry!

Garth thank you also for the great public service you are provideing as there are still a lot of HGTV virgins to save.

The Facts are the Facts! Read & Learn my HGTV Virgins. Everyone knows there are tough times coming except you!!!!

(In order to read Globe & Mail Articles below for FREE select tools on Internet explorer, then select in private browsing or just delete your browsing history to read the articles in a new window. This way all you HGTV virgins can read, learn and save yourselves!!!!!!).

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/why-housing-prices-arent-coming-back/article6929120/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/european-business/german-and-spanish-jobs-to-have-and-have-not/article6928411/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/canadas-housing-hangover-real-estate-boom-meet-dot-com-crash/article6867321/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/new-listings-sales-down-as-vancouver-residential-market-cools/article6900711/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/ottawas-800-billion-housing-problem/article6732755/

Third time you have posted this epistle. Enough. — Garth

#67 45north on 01.08.13 at 12:40 am

Fodork: US banks settled foreclosure lawsuits for several billions.

the robo-signing scandal comes to mind. I’m thinking that the Canadian banks are doing audits to make sure that mortgages are properly registered – all the legal work is in order. In Canada there are no MERS
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortgage_Electronic_Registration_Systems

Canadian banks know what is coming, they have known it for some time now.

#68 Derek R on 01.08.13 at 12:43 am

#9 TurnerNation on 01.07.13 at 10:19 pm wrote:
I think the term is Muppets? Or is that in the UK.

In England maybe. In Scotland the term would be “Numpties”.

#69 Roy on 01.08.13 at 12:50 am

Sadly this trio is a good representative sample of the Canadian sheeple population.

“Me and my wife are not interested in taking a loss”

Very typical mindset of this bunch. RE losses don’t apply to me. It can’t happen here. It doesn’t and isn’t happening here. It’s different here. This only happens in countries where they are irresponsible, not like us. We will stay in until it rebounds. They said it will rebound. We won’t take losses. We only take gains. RE never goes down, and never will. That’s what they told us anyhow. That’s what the realtors and TV, and realty experts keep saying. We believe them because we trust them, because they are ethical and professional.

Vancouver is borderline illiquid and TV shill says there is no bubble, only pure growth and demand. Head, return to sand. Then he says do not worry, Chinese buyers will come back. Its going to be a fun and interesting next 3 years.

#70 Holy crap where's the Tylenol on 01.08.13 at 12:52 am

#37 Smoking Man on 01.07.13 at 11:18 pm
#22 Mithan on 01.07.13 at 10:43 pm

One of my kids works in regina, paying crazy amount of rent, for a room in a house that’s worth 125k..his rent pays the morrtgage, the other two in house are pure profit.

if you would only pay an old cell phone bill 200 bill, and clear his credit, he could easly by the place.

I refuse to pay it, you got too take your score seriously, and unless pay a bit with disappointment you wont learn

WTF wow Smoking Man not only can I not discern what you are saying but you just gave me a migraine trying to forget about it!

#71 Smoking Man on 01.08.13 at 1:01 am

Smoking Man sees all………………………….

They have the drones, will the kid from Ohio controlling the bird drop a bomb on his NFL rival town, nope. Just takes one bad pilot to turn and drop one on congress/white house.

Elite I am now shit faced fo get the check, I want gold to save your fat sorry asses.

You wont bite will you, think you got it all figured out…….. hahaha

enjoy god

#72 Victor V on 01.08.13 at 1:03 am

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/07/why-tds-ed-clark-says-canada-isnt-heading-for-a-u-s-style-housing-bust/

Q You said you don’t think Canada is headed for a U.S.-style housing bust, but there have been plenty of housing busts around the world, in fact many countries in Europe have had one.

A Yes, but I think [most were victims of] a combination of both low interest rates and poor lending policies. We had the advantage in Canada that the bulk of mortgage lending is done by regulated banks and those banks hold those mortgages on our balance sheet.

Q Yes, but about $600-billion of those mortgages are insured by CMHC, so banks like TD don’t have to pay the consequences if something goes wrong.

A There’s two categories of CMHC insurance, one is the social program where this is in a sense a government program and there is no question, that’s a higher risk program. The government is saying, we would like people to be able to borrow more than 80% loan to value, we think that’s a social good. When you do stress tests on that — which we’re able to do — it’s clear that in the case of a downturn, you’re going to suffer more losses [on those loans].

#73 renters rule on 01.08.13 at 1:07 am

@#56 Smoking Man

what is your problem dude — one wonders what you are over-compensating for….. are you underquipped… or what?

#74 Sean Bell on 01.08.13 at 1:16 am

So… when we talk about getting out of real estate at this time, are we talking about as investment? Or are we talking about primary residence.

I have a wife and 4 young kids and we are making it on the one income of around $60,000. So we bought into North Regina at $350,000. To rent a house anywhere outside of the inner city seems to cost at least $2000 per month… which seems insane to pay for rent.

Am I to understand I should sell to ‘a greater fool’ as soon as I can get my money back, start paying $2000/month for rent instead of $900 for mortgage, and then wait for the crash to happen?

Or is the better advice to pay as little of the mortgage as possible and work on further diversifying investment and saving (and I guess I’m one of the lucky with a pension plan).

Is there no wisdom in paying for the house first (a guaranteed 3.9% interest on my 220,000 I owe), and then worry about other saving later?

#75 Barbarian or Savage? not sure on 01.08.13 at 1:21 am

Micheal Levy REALLY?
Who cares
You’ll get better advice from Eugene Levy!

#76 Old Man on 01.08.13 at 1:23 am

#35 A Smith – all cool with me, as you are doing well and do not or ever sign up with the Smoking Man’s paid lectures on how to get rich, as he charges too much, and he is too cheap to include a buffet for his audience.

#77 bill on 01.08.13 at 1:31 am

#41 Bo Xilai on 01.07.13 at 11:29 pm
I would agree that levy is NO ‘old china hand’ [not that I am] and thus highly suspect.

#45 POOR TO MAN on 01.07.13 at 11:39 pm
while I hope for the best in china ,a gentleman who had a textile mill in shanghai during the Kuomintang years, thought that lot [ the Kuomintang] to be the complete description of venality.
he didnt like the communists much either.
he told me [around 1980 or so] it would just be a matter of time before Communists emulated the Kuomintang.
Now that we have a lot more info ,I can say I havent seen much to dissuade me otherwise.
although as any normal person would, I hope Xi Jinping
does exactly what he says he will.
it is entrenched very deeply and this will not happen overnight.
now, however jolly it would be to see them get their just deserts it could very easily degenerate into a bloody purge [the cultural revolution springs to mind]
and that would not be good for business so I have my doubts as to how fast this will be…
I do hope though. not for the purge ,of course but for a more transparent and rule of law sort of place.
I highly recommend reading Sterling Seagrave’s ‘The Soong Dynasty’ for an appreciation of what china was like in the early 20th century to the communist takeover.

#78 Smoking Man on 01.08.13 at 1:37 am

AIPAC YOUR DAYS ARE NUMBERED IN USA.

I can be bought, and don’t think cause I cant spell your beenee boys with 90′s in university can out smart the great smoking man…….

I’m friends with the aliens been for a ride on the mother ship………

wish i was joking………………..gold will do

#79 Mainlander on 01.08.13 at 1:42 am

The realtors in a panic dummy has imparted more wisdom on us again. The keepers of this idiot must allow him a full fifteen minutes of internet access per day now. Like most of the readers we just can’t wait to read the highly intelligent comments.

#80 Soylent Green is People on 01.08.13 at 1:46 am

Lololol Re You should consider working for the Department of Finance.

Haha i needed a laugh today after harpers media attacks on chief spence, i had no idea how rascist canada really is

Blech to reform party cons

#idlenomore

#81 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.08.13 at 2:02 am

-
This column does hold merit in serving a very good purpose in the Python’s Confuse-A-Cat sketch.

In one sense, I’m glad I’m old now, ‘cuz I can’t remember what I’m supposed to forget or be confused about, which makes life enormously easier.

On the other hand, I forgot what I was going to write.
*
#200 Smoking Man on 01.07.13 at 9:35 pm — “Vlad when hunting links, try to find good UFO’s” — Exc. links! When I find some good ones I’ll post them. Cheers!

#45 POOR TO MAN — “Mr. Levy is a silly person. Welcome to the GreaterFool, Silly Person© edition.” — Is Mr. Levy the winner?!
*
The Unintended Consequences of a Lottery Winner; Nine in Ten being hit the hardest; Unmitigated Disaster Everything goes in cycles; DC not in sync with itself; US$80.4 bln. oon foodstamps in 2012; UN Costs As well as paying for ObombaCare, US taxpayers also cough up one fifth of UN budget, and Agenda 21 Everyone seems have their hands in this; Japan and China Both buying US up? Emerging Markets = Overheating economies.
*
Sandy Hook United Way sent condolences three days PRIOR to shooting; A new way of presenting the evening news; Money For Nothing and the ice for free; Cell Phone There’s a first time for everything; Ten min. clip Electric Body, electric food, and Magnesium More important than previously thought; UK freeze, but the temps. are not cold for us lumberjacks; GW – Tool of the west; Crooked Justice A person defending his home is serving a life term for killing one, and wounding another burglar; Adam Lanza Where is his toxicology report? Americans losing more rights; Alaska ‘Quake affected Yellowstone and LA. sinkhole; Hooters Other than food, what is it like to work there? Smart Utility Meters Headaches, lack of sleep etc.
*
Smoking Man – Medvedev and Putin, off camera. The Russian documentary Men In Black is also linked, and Education People leaving.

#82 Tony on 01.08.13 at 2:30 am

Re: #54 Mojo on 01.08.13 at 12:06 am

Most Edmontonians will die of old age first before they ever see 2007 peak prices for real estate again.

#83 stop lying on 01.08.13 at 2:44 am

nothing like using data from april and may to give a “sneak peek” at the 2013 market…

http://fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/299520_511411968880971_2132533567_n.jpg

#84 stop lying on 01.08.13 at 2:45 am

forgot to give credit, my link is from a remax facebook page…

#85 Lost Soul on 01.08.13 at 3:09 am

” Michael Levy (first take):

“Vancouver is the best city on earth. It may be the only true city on earth. I mean, who the hell would not want to live in Vancouver? Or invest here? Or live here AND invest here? Or invest here THEN live here?

“Vancouver is not in a bubble. Prices have only tripled since 2000, and it’s all because of demand. To make a bubble you need soap and water and one of those little plastic sticks with the ring on the end, not demand.

“Actually, very few people know this, but technically speaking, Vancouver is a special administrative region of China, like Hong Kong. But Hong Kong has nothing on Van. And besides, being an SAR is not enough; we must take it further. So I have established a committee to make Vancouver legally a suburb of Beijing.

“So naturally, laws on the Chinese mainland will impact the Lower Mainland. When Chinese laws change, that makes Chinese people more free. Naturally, free-loving Hans (and some Uyghurs) across China will want to purchase houses in Vancouver. Not to mention the helicopter people. I predict in the future we will see an influx of people in helicopters pretending to be Chinese citizens flying all over the beautiful Vancouver skies buying homes at well above market value. It’s only natural. After all, it is Vancouver.”

“How’s that?”

Levy..Campbell and Jurock..Moe, Curly and Joe!

#86 Hey Jude on 01.08.13 at 3:16 am

Hi Garth I am a new reader to your blog and I love it. We sold our house 5 years ago and have been renting. My husband retires in June 2013 and we are now ready to possibly relocate to Moncton, New Brunswick and settle quietly into retirement. Housing is already a real deal there.
Garth could you possibly comment on your thoughts of us buying a home this year and retirement in Moncton.
Thanks for your time.
Jude

A brilliant move. The Maritimes are the new BC for retirement – friendly, temperate climate and you and eliminate a zero from house prices. But I prefer the South Shore of NS. They have palm trees. — Garth

#87 Devore on 01.08.13 at 3:53 am

#4 Spiltbongwater

Indeed, only in the land of movies do perfectly ordinary and safe everyday objects explode on contact with each other or the tiniest spark. Unless, of course, the hero or key bad guy is nearby.

#88 Devore on 01.08.13 at 4:13 am

#14 not 1st

If you just have to buy a condo, get all concrete construction including walls. You will pay a small premium for this but its worth it. Otherwise if you are in a wood building, end unit, top floor is what you go after.

Never, ever, for any reason, buy in a wood frame condo. Even if you won’t live there yourself. Noise is probably the least of your problems.

#89 futureexpatriate on 01.08.13 at 8:04 am

There’s a radio show somewhere in this. “Garth Sez” where idiots call in unbelievably stupid questions and get painfully smartass answers.

Oh wait. It’s on already. Howard Stern.

King of Canadian Media?

You know where to send the check. ;)

#90 GeorgeSoonToBeRetired on 01.08.13 at 8:07 am

Here’s an interesting MSM report from someone who has been noted as a bit of a pumper here. Citing Royal Lepage, she says prices will only flatline the next two years in Toronto. I am curious what others here think.

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1311871–toronto-housing-prices-to-flatline-in-2013-report

#91 Not 1st on 01.08.13 at 8:15 am

Re Smoking man,

So Alex jones thinks a bunch of paranoid hillbilly with shot guns will actually oppose the mighty US military one day? What a turkey shoot that would be. Maybe in 1776 it was possible but we aren’t all using muskets any more. Someday the govt will actually use a drone strike on home soil to take someone out then after that it’s all bets off.

#92 Sharp21 on 01.08.13 at 8:28 am

Haha priceless!

Another option that I haven’t seen mentioned; stay put & pay off that boat anchor. Adjust your lifestyle & hope that by the time you finally own that place the market will be better.

Ask me how I know…
S.

#93 Devore on 01.08.13 at 8:38 am

#78 TRT

New listings for the first 1/3 of the January in Vancouver have crashed compared to January 2012.

Don’t hold your breath for any correction this spring.

Really?

http://www.yattermatters.com/2013/01/vancouver-real-estate-listings-chill/

Active listings are hardly low. You can check vancouvercondo.info for daily listing/sales info.

#94 Victor V on 01.08.13 at 9:05 am

Real estate agency Royal LePage expects Canada’s housing market to go through a mild correction in coming months, but is predicting that the average national home price will be 1 per cent higher by the end of this year.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/mild-correction-expected-for-housing-market-royal-lepage/article7028812/

#95 Ralph Cramdown on 01.08.13 at 9:25 am

#91 GeorgeSoonToBeRetired — Citing Royal Lepage, she says prices will only flatline the next two years in Toronto.

The LePage report called for flatlining on average: Declining condos offset by appreciating SFH. Here’s YoY condo unit sales decline in the 416 for the last 6 months: -13% -22% -29% -14% -25% -27%, and condo sales are far less seasonal than SFH, so the November and December numbers aren’t to be dismissed as statistically less significant.

Here’s a blog entry from yesterday from a previously bullish Toronto agent: http://www.torontorealtyblog.com/archives/entering-2013
He’s now talking about how the better neighbourhoods will hold their value… First they threw Vancouver to the wolves, then they admitted there might be a problem with downtown Toronto condos. Next they started striking neighbourhoods off the ‘safe’ list, a few of the “up and coming” ones at first, then more and more.

I wish Toronto had a cartographer like the master who does the Battle of Vancouver: http://vancouvercondo.info/2013/01/home-and-condo-sales-battle-map.html
Here be dragons!

#96 Rishu on 01.08.13 at 9:30 am

“Me and my wife are not interested in taking a loss”

Huh uh… But the “market” doesn’t give two flips about what you and your wife are interested in.

- Rishu

#97 Ret on 01.08.13 at 9:36 am

#38 -Love that Brampton semi for $380,000.

“Very Close (Easy Walk) To Sobey’s Plaza And Bus Stop.”

Great, I can sell my car and ride the buses in Brampton. It just doesn’t get any better than that, does it?

I can probably open a fitness center/ personal trainer operation in the basement an squeeze 3 one bedroom studio units into the living space. That garage has potential too. I could turn that garage space into a real little money maker or maybe I’ll just finish it off and live in that myself. I’m SOLD!

#98 Jeff in Moose Jaw on 01.08.13 at 9:38 am

“Here’s Gail. She’s screwed” – LOL coffee went everywhere!

#99 AK on 01.08.13 at 9:38 am

That Michael Levy propaganda was priceless. LMFAO..

#100 I am disappoint on 01.08.13 at 10:03 am

#3 In the cold from Toronto

Was thinking the same thing. Who needs to state that they have a lack of interest in losing money?? Hilarious comment!

#101 Toronto_CA on 01.08.13 at 10:13 am

Gail – buy a white noise machine and get sound proofing done. Ask for carpeting in the hallways. DO something about your unit that makes it livable for you, rather than sell for a massive loss.

#102 claudius emperor on 01.08.13 at 10:18 am

Phil Soper:
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/royal-lepage-forecasts-slower-pace-housing-sales-reduce-121655910.html

When the housing market and CHMC blow up the impact on the Canadian economy would be horrendous.
We have not seen anything yet. As of the non productive investment misallocation (instead of boosting Businesses and keeping the natural resources to ourselves the money goes to the banks and abroad, China and (excuse me!) Indonesia are buying our resources..) when housing market crashes there would be very little left to support the economy. We shot our bullets in blowing up more the bubble instead of controlling the fallout (as the states do), the only factor that kept us in the game so far was the resource sector.

If F thinks that CHMC is a great idea he should privatize it (including the liability for the ‘insured’ mortgages) and be forced to put all his savings in that investment. Yes F, put your money where your mouth is.

I can’t stress enough the importance of diversification OUTSIDE of North America. The stupidity of some is an opportunity for others.

#103 Franke le skank on 01.08.13 at 10:20 am

#78 TRT on 01.08.13 at 1:28 am
Its a few days after the holidays, I think you’re a little pre-mature.

#104 Patiently Waiting on 01.08.13 at 10:24 am

#95 Victor V
Don’t be fooled, Royal LePage’s Phil Soper is s schill for the real estate industry. – what would you expect him to say …
That was simply an infomercial to try and quell the nerves of the sheeple so they don’t get nervous. 6 months from now they will revise their forecast lower, and say that who could have seen this coming, buy now as it is about to turn around, we have bottomed out and fundamentals are sound. Shheesh …

pw

#105 Eaglebay - Parksville on 01.08.13 at 10:27 am

#45 POOR TO MAN on 01.07.13 at 11:39 pm

2013, the year of the snake (water).
The majority of the Chinese people are honest and hard working. Some are even very successful.
As a person of Chinese heritage, you should know that.
It’s tough for a government to oversee 1.3 billion people.

#106 live within your means on 01.08.13 at 10:32 am

#83 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.08.13 at 2:02 am
-
This column does hold merit in serving a very good purpose in the Python’s Confuse-A-Cat sketch.

In one sense, I’m glad I’m old now, ‘cuz I can’t remember what I’m supposed to forget or be confused about, which makes life enormously easier.

On the other hand, I forgot what I was going to write.
…………………….

LOL – just like me. I had not seen that sketch. One of my favourites was the Ministry of Silly Walks – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iV2ViNJFZC8

#107 robert james on 01.08.13 at 10:33 am

#95 Victor V I often pick up a Globe and Mail on Saturdays ,,not sure why as it is all old news anyway .. Probably the main reason is because we no longer get junk mail delivered and my son needs newspaper for the bottom of his bird cage.. After reading that Royal Lepage garbage it would appear that the Globe has now stooped to the same level as the Vancouver Sun so I think I will just save the 2 bucks every Sat and my son can get his own paper or get rid of the birds..

#108 Guy1 on 01.08.13 at 10:43 am

Check out this bull:

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/montreal/Home+prices+Montreal+rise+2013+flatten+across+Canada/7789394/story.html

#109 Holy Crap wheres the tylenol on 01.08.13 at 10:48 am

#92 Not 1st on 01.08.13 at 8:15 am

Re Smoking man,

So Alex jones thinks a bunch of paranoid hillbilly with shot guns will actually oppose the mighty US military one day? What a turkey shoot that would be. Maybe in 1776 it was possible but we aren’t all using muskets any more. Someday the govt will actually use a drone strike on home soil to take someone out then after that it’s all bets off.

You are correct sir!
Even worse they may use this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWS1dBrAAJU

#110 md on 01.08.13 at 10:49 am

I think that all three of them should just buy another house… you know… keep the economy going…

#111 Willy2 on 01.08.13 at 10:49 am

It’s my experience that women (much more than men) have a tendency to fall in love with real estate. And then they’ll do anything to convince their husband (IF they’re married) to buy that house. And it seems Gail was no exception.

Mr. Turner,

I wholeheartedly disagree with your view that US housing is staging a comeback. This is – IMO – nothing more than a “Dead cat bounce”.

For a long time people in the US moved out of cities and moved into what’s known as “Suburbia”. Only in Surburbia they found new build houses to house large families (McMansions). That was the trend from say the mid 1960s up to say 2008.

Now with evolving US demographics (i.e. an ageing population) and the economic downturn this trend is reversing. People seem to be moving out of “Suburbia” and back into the cities. They want townhouses in stead of McMansions. And that’s – IMO – going to happen in Canada as well.

More over, I am a firm believer that the 31 year period of falling interest rates (from 1981) has ended or is about to end very soon. And no, that’s NOT the result of rising inflation (we’re moving to DEFLATION, again) but a fear of the US defaulting on its debts. (That’s the ULTIMATE deflation).

The world is going to experience MUCH more deflation than A LOT OF people expect and are able to put up with.

I wanted to post this comment in the appropriate thread but in that thread was already closed for comments.

Believe what you wish, but sales, prices and construction are all significantly ahead of six months ago. Americans are more confident than you are, which is all that matters. — Garth

#112 Old tom on 01.08.13 at 11:00 am

#66 Smoking Man on 01.08.13 at 12:33 am

Am I ever glad I down sized, traded the Mercedes for a pick up with roll down windows, I got air, could not give that up…..my boat is small, but my powers of observation superior……..

Them good old boys are pissed, poorer, and looking for zillionairs to take out….

the elite are sipping madam Atwa, cool aid, happens…
remember I have proven over and over that I am years ahead of the curve….
fellow zillionairs, long branch

Mr Smoking man this is BS, anyone who has owned a Mercedes would not likly give it up for a pick up truck. You are most likely either not driving as you have probably lost your license from being shitfaced all the time or have a bottom of the line Honda!
Real Mercedes drivers never go backwards!

#113 White Rock Mom on 01.08.13 at 11:05 am

Hi Garth,
After comparing last year’s BC assessments to the newly released assessments for some South Surrey and West Vancouver neighbourhoods I am convinced that these property appraisers are smoking pot. As sales decrease assessments are up again dramatically. I guess my hopes of staying here are gone.
Mom

#114 live within your means on 01.08.13 at 11:14 am

#83 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.08.13 at 2:02 am

Re magnesium link. I take a supplement each day (along with several others). I was suffering from cramps in my hands & feet (more like a Charley Horse). My Onc. nurse saw me having one in my foot. She thought it might be due to lack of magnesium. Family Dr. told me it’s OK for me to take them. But, if no improvement stop my cholesterol meds for a few weeks as they may be responsible – just recently started taking them. After mag. supplements I’ve noticed a real difference. Last year I went on blood pressure meds also. My family Dr. monitors everything every 3 mos. Well, at least I only started these meds at 64. So many I know started taking them in the mid to late 40′s. Hubby gets really PO’d at me cause I eat like a bird.

#115 bill on 01.08.13 at 11:27 am

#108 robert james on 01.08.13 at 10:33 am
May I suggest using the weekly free real estate rag?
the birds will love it.
if your from Toronto you could quite possibly get an edition that has a picture of ‘the condo king’ and get the little birdies to decorate it in a fitting manner ….

#116 AK on 01.08.13 at 11:37 am

#112 Willy2 on 01.08.13 at 10:49 am

“More over, I am a firm believer that the 31 year period of falling interest rates (from 1981) has ended or is about to end very soon. And no, that’s NOT the result of rising inflation (we’re moving to DEFLATION, again) but a fear of the US defaulting on its debts. (That’s the ULTIMATE deflation).”

It’s a good thing I was sitting down while I was reading your post.

Dude, The US will not be defaulting on their debt. Stop reading useless propaganda. :-)

#117 TorontoRealEstateBoy on 01.08.13 at 11:44 am

Garth, I’ve been following your blog for 2 yrs now and this is my first post. You’ve inspired me to learn more about saving money, investing and of course real estate. Thanks for adding knowledge and humour to our lives =)

#118 claudius emperor on 01.08.13 at 11:57 am

The more people delay the inevitable the worse the crash would be.

6 months delay in a sale might result in 15 % lower sales price and much larger pain, competing with the stampede of sellers in the spring market.

Sellers waiting for improved conditions? Good luck.

It will be a great show

#119 live within your means on 01.08.13 at 11:58 am

#112 Willy2 on 01.08.13 at 10:49 am
It’s my experience that women (much more than men) have a tendency to fall in love with real estate. And then they’ll do anything to convince their husband (IF they’re married) to buy that house. And it seems Gail was no exception.
……………….

Well Willy2 – That’s not been my experience. I had lived in about 21 rentals before my sis & I decided to buy a T’house as it was far cheaper for both of us. In fact, I recall my Mom’s boss in Mtl. constantly after we gals to buy a home. My younger sis in Mtl. was totally pressured by her husband to buy a condo after they sold their home a few years ago – cause RE only goes up. She wanted to rent. And, if I really wanted to give it much thought, I’m sure I can find many similar stories of couples I know.

BTW, I’d be ready to sell our home & rent. We have friends who did that last year. My hubby is not. Where would he keep his toys. When we get into an argument, I let him know that I’m financially able to rent an apt. on my own & pay for certain services (non sexual :-)). End of conversation on his part. BTW, I was the major bread winner for many years.

#120 T5>myT4 on 01.08.13 at 12:02 pm

80% of Boomers own houses. 11% own equities. Figure it out. — Garth

BULLISH ! Long S&P !!!!

The RE crash should make for some interesting TV this year. I cant wait to watch 2013 episodes of my fav show “Till debt do us part”

Especially when the couples can no longer rely on dipping into their HELOC’s to finance their leased out 3 series and Harry Rosen pants.

#121 Willy2 on 01.08.13 at 12:06 pm

Mr. Turner,

The fact that in the US contruction, sales and prices are (slightly) up does not represent a housing recovery.

Is the valuation of US housing already back to 3.5 times average pre tax income (it was at about 9 times average in 2005) income? Then and and only then I would believe we COULD see a US housing recovery.

It is a fait accompli. Go worry about global peace. — Garth

#122 robert james on 01.08.13 at 12:07 pm

#116 Bill…. I live in the Okanagan so no Toronto RE ads for me.. I do pick up the Free Okanagan Mainline real estate paper once in awhile when I am short of paper for the birds.. It is amazing,,there is one realtor that always has his listing ads in there along with his picture.. The bloody birds nail him everytime.. Just like “smart bombs”.. There can be 10 realtor pictures on the page but they nail this guy everytime.. I often wonder if it is DA..

#123 coastal on 01.08.13 at 12:29 pm

“Old wise Garth. What do you predict the SFH average in Victoria, B.C., for 2013?”

Desperate times means desperate measures. Guess the crap shacks on Shelbourne aren’t selling anymore. Pretty sad having to grovel for business on here.

#124 LP on 01.08.13 at 12:33 pm

#124robert james on 01.08.13 at 12:07 pm

Now that is maybe the funniest comment I’ve read all week! Thanks so much for the big laugh.

#125 coastal on 01.08.13 at 12:34 pm

“Michael Levy is a proven liar”

He is the biggest flake of them all, and is one of Michael Campbell’s go-to guys but is all BS. I have never seen one of his predictions come through. He called for the house bubble to pop back in 2007 and he wasn’t interviewed for ages then comes back on and he says it’s going up forever….right before the 2008 market crash. The guy is a joke.

#126 Ronaldo on 01.08.13 at 12:36 pm

http://www.tmxmoney.com/en/cpnews/08TB11.html

What to fear. Well, after reading the above link, I would say the banks are getting a bit afraid of lending on these high priced overbuilt condos. Now watch the prices drop.

#127 claudius emperor on 01.08.13 at 12:47 pm

Isn’t the pickup in US house prices due to the Fed buying bad mortgages something to the tune of 40 B/month?

If that’s the case I would not put much trust in their ‘housing recovery’. It is artificial, inflation and not growth based.

#128 willworkforpickles on 01.08.13 at 12:51 pm

The what???….the Brampton countryside…he must feel like Columbus did .

#129 martin9999 on 01.08.13 at 12:51 pm

What does ‘thin air’ mean? All currency is backed by the world’s largest economy, worth $16 trillion, plus the power to tax. There is no greater security on this earth. — Garth
————————
best coment ever, i will use it as mine on dinner gatherings

#130 Smoking Man on 01.08.13 at 12:52 pm

Here we are tsx back to pre fiscal cliff prices, and big bad batman…

Vlad great link re ufo’s

#131 Canadian Watchdog on 01.08.13 at 12:57 pm

Risky Business:Trade Associations and Canadian Competition Law Link

• Cartel/Bid-Rigging Investigations: According to a recent presentation by a Bureau official, there are at least four ongoing criminal investigations in which the Bureau is examining the role played by trade associations. Press reports indicate that one of these investigations involves alleged price-fixing by concrete companies in the Toronto house-building industry.

#132 █ ♣ █ ANONYMOUS on 01.08.13 at 1:03 pm

30% CORRECTION IN THE STOCK MARKET COMING !

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-08/bull-market-in-u-s-equities-to-end-in-2013-ubs-says.html

Quote:
“The bull market in U.S. equities that began in 2009 may end this year, followed by a drop of as much as 30 percent in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index by next year, according to technical analysts at UBS AG. ”

“A “cyclical” bear market will then follow, with the gauge dropping as low as 1,100 by 2014.”

So don’t worry about house prices falling when equity price falls will far exceed that.

Do you believe everything you read from people with a vested interest in volatility? — Garth

#133 Holy Crap whers the Tylenol on 01.08.13 at 1:04 pm

I keep hearing the same old story. RE and the economy are controlled by the Bilderberg Group, Skull & Bones, Illuminati….. any other conspiracy theory group. I think not, but rather by sheeple avoiding reality.
This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill- the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. (ignorance of illusion) You take the red pill- you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes. (acceptance of reality)

#134 Cory on 01.08.13 at 1:04 pm

Garth,

You’re just too funny. These stories are just too much for words.

As funny as these stories are, they are really heartbreaking to the people that are involved. I can see how people get caught up in the excitement of buying a home and get totally stuck.

Not that I’m any smarter. In 2006 I bought an investment property. It was an 70 year old single family home. After the offer was accepted I found out the whole house had knob and tube wiring. This was nowhere to be found on the listing. I though about backing out but I didn’t. It cost me 10K to have it removed and I still have the home today. Meanwhile it’s goine up in value and it’s more than half paid for. So sometimes it can work out even if it feels like the whole world has come to an end.

#135 Aussie Roy on 01.08.13 at 1:07 pm

Aussie Update

Which is right the headline or the story?.

Brisbane home values slowly improving

While values still fell 0.8 per cent throughout the 2012 calendar year, the rate of decline was much lower than in previous years. In 2011 for example, Brisbane home values fell by 6.5 per cent over the year.

“So although they are still declining, the rate of decline has been slowing, which I guess is somewhat encouraging,”

http://brisbanetimes.domain.com.au/brisbane-home-values-slowly-improving-20130104-2c8a0.html

I wonder how many people realised how false the headline was.

#136 AprilNewwest on 01.08.13 at 1:21 pm

#93 Don’t believe it. Note the source!

#137 Bottoms_Up on 01.08.13 at 1:23 pm

#75 Sean Bell on 01.08.13 at 1:16 am
—————————————
The advice is largely for investors, but also for those that can’t afford their current mortgage at higher interest rates, or anyone that bought a cardboard box in the sky in Toronto or Vancouver.

#138 rainclouds on 01.08.13 at 1:35 pm

#78 TRT

Care to provide reliable data to back your assertation Van listings down by 1/3?

Van Listings
Jan 2102 10,671
Jan 2013 12,212

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/

#139 Saskatoon Housing Bubble on 01.08.13 at 1:38 pm

Phil Soper in Royal Lepage’s press release

“Soper noted that the housing market is well into a cyclical correction and that fears of a sharp or drawn out collapse are unwarranted. Home prices have risen faster than salaries and wages for three years and the market requires time to adjust.”

Home prices have risen faster than salaries and wages for only three years? That does not seem too bad does it? Until you look all the way back to the year 2000 when house prices starting experience significant growth and when compared to wages we this…

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3Imoq63zlsw/UOxHklKrUpI/AAAAAAAAEgw/xku2A4IC6sQ/s1600/Canada+Year+over+Year+Percentage+Change.jpg

From 2002 to 2007 the average house price in Canada rose at about a 10% annual clip while the average wage rose at about a 3% annual clip. No mention from Soper about that.

Here are some stats to chew on.

From 2000 to 2012 the average home price in Canada increased by about 125%

From Jan 2000 until Oct 2012. The average wage increased by 40%.

From Jan 2000 until Nov 2012, Canadian residential mortgage credit grew by 176%.

To think that the gasbag was only filled up in the last 3 years is disingenuous. In reality, never has our economy relied more on the fire and construction industries for GDP growth

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Kq0htOZn5pQ/UOxXlCcCdlI/AAAAAAAAEhw/DCY5JW7c2A0/s1600/Percentage+of+Canadian+GDP+Derived+By+Construction+and+Fire+Industries.jpg

and never has our economy relied more on the fire and construction industries for employment

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ev5gy-vzBbo/UOxYO4ihSfI/AAAAAAAAEh4/N2tBmfRVS_0/s1600/Percentage+of+Canadian+Workforce+Employed+in+Construction+and+Fire+Industries.jpg

Never has our economy had consumers who were so indebted when compared to incomes

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-jQQ1ekFLuhE/UMoPAMdr5VI/AAAAAAAAENc/eFKN6XCQA5g/s1600/US+Canada,+UK+debt+to+income+ratios.jpg

and gdp

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YsXHkqSlMtE/UMoS3r-XclI/AAAAAAAAEOY/pIzEZdf6eBw/s1600/US+and+Canada+Household+Debt+To+GDP.jpg

but then again, maybe Soper has something to sell.

#140 happy renter on 01.08.13 at 1:43 pm

Banks say soft landing for houseing market.Canada got lucky compared to the rest of the world.Most homeowners only pay 28% of gross income on mortgages from an anaylst on bnn.Real estate prices reflect what people can afford and borrow ,so only the low income workers are left renting.

#141 Money talks on 01.08.13 at 1:46 pm

The spin doctors in Winnipeg are doing whatever they can to distract the Kool-Aid drinkers here from December’s decline:

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/homesite/news/new_homes/Strong-demand–in-city-drives-some-house-prices-up-nearly-10-per-cent-186035141.html

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/homes-market-still-hot-in-city-a-solid-foundation-185978812.html

The stats: http://www.winnipegrealestatenews.com/Resources/ShowDocument/136

I’ve been actively watching our keystone since February 2012 and since late November, I’ve seen plenty of price reductions, expired listings/voluntary withdrawals and houses selling for way under list. There is the odd house that goes for over but that is not at all the norm as it was back in the spring.

Very happy to have sold in the spring to actualize our equity after a very lucrative 10 years of buying/selling home working our way “up the ladder”. We were not the only one leveraging ourselves to the hilt to climb yet here we are, the fools renting. I’m scared for all my friends and I’ve started to wonder how to be there for them when they are in financial ruins without saying “I told you so!”.

I honestly feel bad for the people who bought from us. Private sale, picked the sale price out of my dreams thinking no one would pay it and they did. Lo and behold, no bank appraisal….150k above recent assessment….buyers approved through CMHC with 5% down and neither have permanent jobs.

But it’s different here, we are just catching up to the rest of Canada… sure.

#142 Money talks on 01.08.13 at 1:49 pm

***My matrix is set up for the south end of the city, 300k to 500k, detached, min 3 bedroom.***

#143 Patiently Waiting on 01.08.13 at 1:56 pm

White Rock Mom on 01.08.13 at 11:05 am
Hi Garth,
After comparing last year’s BC assessments to the newly released assessments for some South Surrey and West Vancouver neighbourhoods I am convinced that these property appraisers are smoking pot. As sales decrease assessments are up again dramatically. I guess my hopes of staying here are gone.
Mom
—————————————————————–

Fear not White Rock Mom … Assessed Values are not particularly accurate, as they are based on mass appraisal techniques, and secondly they are based on historical data – as such they do not reflect the fact that prices are actually falling in recent months, and are trending down.

It is a little bit like when the real estate industry compares year over year price changes as a way to hide the fact that prices have been falling since the market hit a cyclical peak in the spring. Prices are best compared month over month to identify trends, as year over year comparisons are only useful to compare sales volumes.

Hope this helps …
pw

#144 broadway skytrain on 01.08.13 at 1:57 pm

What does ‘thin air’ mean? All currency is backed by the world’s largest economy, worth $16 trillion, plus the power to tax. There is no greater security on this earth. — Garth
—————————————
the man has a way with words, no doubt.

however, with respect, isn’t each new unit of currency
competing for the same, fixed, ‘backing’ , thereby diluting the pool?
ie larger numerator and fixed denominator makes a smaller result.

but if everyone else is doing it , i guess it can’t hurt. ;)

#145 Suede on 01.08.13 at 2:05 pm

a HUGE development in Toronto planned by a Vancouver firm. Desperation.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouver+firm+planning+construct+Canada+tallest+buildings+report/7786565/story.html

another popular delusion

#146 Inglorious Investor on 01.08.13 at 2:26 pm

skeptical

Your point about the Fed printing money out of thin air is valid and it is cause for concern. However, the US still has the world’s largest economy, despite its current problems.

But ultimately American supremacy rests on its ability to control the world via its military, and particularly its navy. As long as it maintains this supremacy, and as long as it has such a large economy, it can impose the US dollar on the world, which allows it to run up huge debts that likely can never be repaid, aside from all but destroying the currency.

I think the military aspect is something most people don’t quite understand. Fundamentally, the US today is no different from the Roman Empire with its garrisons located throughout Europe and the Middle East two millennia ago. Just look at a map of US military bases around the world. That says it all.

We in the West have been conditioned to perceive the US as a benevolent master to whom we willingly surrender control in the name of protection and US economic largesse. But the truth is, the US is an empire that imposes itself on other nations one way or the other. Usually this is done via friendly arrangements, but force is used when necessary (like when the foreign leaders of weak nations have the gall to suggest maybe they should be running their own affairs).

During WW II the US saved Europe from German and then potential Russian dominance. But it did not save Europe for the Europeans; it saved it for the US, and in particular Anglo-American business and finance. In the Pacific, the US clashed with Japan for control of the Pacific Rim. The US did not wage war on Japan because Japan attacked Pearl Harbour. The US attacked Japan to eliminate the competition. Japan eliminated Russian and Chinese competition in the region before that.

In Canada, we have no clue, because we’ve always been too weak to do anything but go along with the ‘program.’ We are good friends with the US basically because we do whatever they say (some minor squabbles not withstanding). The Romans too treated their ‘allies” well. But like the US, the Romans were very skilled at concocting a pretext to attack another country when that country didn’t go along with the ‘program.’

Furthermore, the US is rich in resources, particularly oil and gas, but many other resources as well. Perhaps no other country in the history of the world has been quite so blessed overall. This abundance of natural wealth can help America rebuild, though I doubt it will ever be as rich or as strong as it once was. But as long as no other country can push it around, the US will be a safe place to invest. All that money printing is diluting the wealth of the masses and transferring it to others. It’s difficult to imagine the US generating enough real wealth fast enough to not have all that new money dilute values, but if things go well, it may not be as bad as some think. Whatever happens, in the end, it’s We The People who will pay the bill.

#147 Bottoms_Up on 01.08.13 at 2:28 pm

#75 Sean Bell on 01.08.13 at 1:16 am
—————————————-
and also for boomers relying on their paid-off homes to finance their retirement.

#148 Andrew on 01.08.13 at 2:35 pm

DA has not weighed in yet on today’s discussion…kinda took it on the chin a little yesterday…

…or maybe just taking the extra time to get those sales numbers ready for us all.

#149 Ron on 01.08.13 at 2:45 pm

White rock mom-

The GF has a condo in White rock and her assesment is down…..

#150 Canadian Watchdog on 01.08.13 at 2:50 pm

#145 Saskatoon Housing Bubble

B20 guidelines don’t apply for Saskatoon and Regina. Banks still giving mortgages to anyone with a pulse.

#151 Ron on 01.08.13 at 2:51 pm

“What does ‘thin air’ mean? All currency is backed by the world’s largest economy, worth $16 trillion, plus the power to tax. There is no greater security on this earth. — Garth”

I wouldn’t be too excited about holding the debt that’s going to be paid back with that sure to be devalued currency.

It might be more exciting to hold equities but even then it would be a bold person that does so sans a hedge against US dollar fluctuation.

#152 Holy Crap Wheres the Tylenol on 01.08.13 at 2:54 pm

Updated: Tue, 08 Jan 2013 10:36:55 GMT | By The Canadian Press, thecanadianpress.com

RBC says Canadian real estate market solid
Royal Bank CEO Gord Nixon says a slowdown in the Canadian real estate market is affecting mortgage lending but the softness is not a crisis since he expects the country’s housing market will remain solid.
Royal Bank CEO Gord Nixon says a slowdown in the Canadian real estate market is affecting mortgage lending but the softness is not a crisis since he expects the country’s housing market will remain solid.
The head of Canada’s largest bank told a RBC banking conference Tuesday that he expects the bank’s consumer lending growth will slow to mid single digits but it should see an increase in commercial loans.
Nixon said the bank has relatively small exposure to the condominium market and has requirements that protect it from troubled lenders.
However, he said there would be an impact on the broader economy from a significant decline in the real estate market.
Faced with a continuing low margin environment, he said the bank will continue to focus on containing costs.
While he’s confident with most parts of the bank’s businesses, Nixon said it will focus on improving its Caribbean operations which he said have been underperforming.
Bank of Montreal CEO Bill Downe told the conference the bank deliberately curtailed its exposure to the Canadian condo construction market after watching some of the problems surface in the United States in 2007 and 2008.
Downe expects the overall U.S. housing market will show considerable strength this spring which will stimulate commercial loans.
After a strong fourth quarter with U.S. mortgages, he’s anticipating that the American economy will be much stronger this year.

Dam it Garth I just liquidated my RE, just think of how much money I could have made had I only listened to RBC!!!! (Drinking heavily now)…………………………

#153 DJB on 01.08.13 at 3:00 pm

Garth: Plenty of fodder for the cannon today as the heads of the 6 banks get together to get their story straight on the housing market.

Along with Royal LePage issuing their statement just before the spring market.

Makes you wonder if all 6 are in a room together and issuing statements, there must be some concern.

But we all know it is in their best interest to put on a happy face. MSM is soaking up the meme today.

#154 Silver on 01.08.13 at 3:06 pm

I sold in Vancouver…3x what I payed in 2005…
Now poaching in the Frazer Valley…
Can buy sweet for 1/3 of what I made there…
Looked at close to 20 properties…
… in my decided vulture range of value , that being less than 1/3 the sale that I just made…
All of the properties turned out to be Bank sales,
now here where it gets interesting…
… at least to me…
only one was actually listed as a Bank Sale…

Hmmm…

Silver

#155 Herb on 01.08.13 at 3:07 pm

#116 live within your means,

you were taking a statin, weren’t you! Your cramps are the beginning of the muscle damage that is casually mentioned as a possible side effect in product information sheets. Get and stay off them unless you want to progress to myopathy and possibly polyneuropathy.

Been there, done that, but did not stop soon enough.

#156 claudius emperor on 01.08.13 at 3:17 pm

Very entertaining articles in the news lately:

It seems TSHTF event has happened and it is worse than expected.
1. Real estate is in real attack for greater fools. Being hungry sucks.. (read Phil Soper and other RE idiots articles).

2. RBC announcing no problem in the housing market.
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/rbc-says-canadian-housing-market-solid-despite-slow-150655309.html

But BMO says:
Bank of Montreal CEO Bill Downe told the conference the bank deliberately curtailed its exposure to the Canadian condo construction market after watching some of the problems surface in the United States in 2007 and 2008.

Hmm….

3. The following ‘piece of fine journalism’:
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/blogs/insight/suitcases-chinese-cash-flooding-canada-borders-162935775.html

Very, very interesting.
Who are these guys truing to convince? Themselves?
There are no grater fools left. Period. All of them bought already. Capisce?
And now the fun begins.

P.S. Garth, would you reconsider your view on PM? When numbers speak even gods are speechless…

#157 claudius emperor on 01.08.13 at 3:18 pm

Garth, You could delete my previous post. Too many spelling errors.. Too fast to type and hit submit…
Too much passion…

#158 AK on 01.08.13 at 3:21 pm

#144 skeptical on 01.08.13 at 1:36 pm

“the SP 500 will be trading between 1000-1100 by 2014. a 25-30% correction from today. if we’re lucky. hopefully, that will be the limit on the downside.”

And your S&P 500 forecast is based on what?
Did you throw a dart?

#159 kreditanstalt on 01.08.13 at 3:22 pm

“The nether reaches of Brampton are more likely to revert to corn than grow equity.”

Probably one of the most perspicacious predictions seen on this blog in a long time…

Like what will become of all those concrete-box-in-the-sky buildings and dwellers…?

#160 Canadian Watchdog on 01.08.13 at 3:28 pm

Saskatoon gets Agenda 21ed. Link

#161 Ogopogo on 01.08.13 at 3:28 pm

#154 Andrew on 01.08.13 at 2:35 pm
DA has not weighed in yet on today’s discussion…kinda took it on the chin a little yesterday…

…or maybe just taking the extra time to get those sales numbers ready for us all.

DA is “juking the stats” like the corrupt cops on the TV show, The Wire. Yesterday he stooped so low as to post juvenile comments about my manhood and Snowboid’s. That’s what happens when Kelowna realtors have all the time in the world to dream up the great Okanagan RE comeback. It will happen any day now of course… starting in 2020.

After yesterday’s fiasco, I no longer care to respond to DA. He’s a pitiful narcissist seeking validation on Garth’s blog. No more need be said about this washed up shill.

#162 bill on 01.08.13 at 3:43 pm

#125 robert james on 01.08.13 at 12:07 pm
well you have convinced me.
I have a cat that may have done something sort of similar.
the zoomer cat promptly coughed up a hair ball when DA was being briskly debated on his removal from the ‘island’
I asked Garth if the zoomer vote could be counted.
while he didnt reply directly I do believe he let her vote be counted.[ there was a wide range of voters that day]
at least one other person asked to let the zoomer vote stand as well.
I congratulate you on your birds accuracy. no doubt they practice quite a bit.practice makes perfect.

#163 dradak1 on 01.08.13 at 3:44 pm

” #14 not 1st on 01.07.13 at 10:24 pm

There are so many 3 or 4 story condo units going up that are just 2×4 construction with a little R12 fibreglass between the units. I rented one for a while and it wasn’t the footsteps that made me crazy, it was the crazy wailing by the upstairs couple while they knocked boots every night.

Word to the wise, detached on your own piece of land is the way to go. If you just have to buy a condo, get all concrete construction including walls. You will pay a small premium for this but its worth it. Otherwise if you are in a wood building, end unit, top floor is what you go after.”

Concrete is better conductor than air – you are paying premium to hear your neighbours better. :-(

#164 Dupcheck on 01.08.13 at 3:57 pm

The noise through the walls can be reduced by adding panel sound insulation. Do some research about sound insulation.

#165 ChickenLittle on 01.08.13 at 3:58 pm

#67 Interesting Times:

Do you copy and paste your posts? You give new meaning to the word “recycling”.

#166 ChickenLittle on 01.08.13 at 3:59 pm

PS: #14 not 1st:
I’m sorry I keep you up at night.

#167 bill on 01.08.13 at 4:10 pm

#169 dradak1 on 01.08.13 at 3:44 pm said:
Concrete is better conductor than air – you are paying premium to hear your neighbours better. :-(

you are quite right.
recording studios go to great lengths to isolate the room from the wall. I believe certain kinds of ‘gyproc’ isolated from the structural walls is the way to go. its not cheap though.and skilled installers are a must.they have to know what they are doing.

#168 Andrew on 01.08.13 at 4:16 pm

Ogo,

Don’t fall for it, DA lives to get a rise out of the dawgs…

Maybe a good idea not to respond, though I will remain steadfast in my vigil as we await the sales reports, like the lockout I’m sure we will see some “movement” soon.

#169 Glass Half Full on 01.08.13 at 4:29 pm

Skeptical, Inglorious Investor

Re: USA debt default – this article is worth a read:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johntharvey/2012/09/10/impossible-to-default/

#170 jules on 01.08.13 at 4:36 pm

Here is an extreme foreclosure case: V978321
Penthouse sold in 2009 for 868,571.
Today $480,000.
Any thoughts???

#171 dradak1 on 01.08.13 at 4:39 pm

“#116 live within your means on 01.08.13 at 11:14 am ”

Try to use one shot-glass of olive oil in the morning on empty stomach. Not pleasant on first – but you will manage. Just think how humans survived for millennia without pharmacy.

#172 Form Man on 01.08.13 at 4:43 pm

#169

Concrete is better conductor than air – you are paying premium to hear your neighbours better. :-(

true words. another truth:

party walls in concrete hi rise buildings are usually constructed of steel studs, fibreglas batts and drywall ( same sound rating as wood studs,fibreglas batts and drywall).

concrete buildings are much better than wood in many ways, but don’t presume the soundproofing is better.

#173 mark on 01.08.13 at 4:52 pm

Let’s see if Global BC reports this one. Vancouver falling at a faster rate than any US city did.

http://vancouverpricedrop.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/graph.jpg

#174 Bigrider on 01.08.13 at 4:53 pm

For all you older guys out there that remember the T.V show “Welcome back Kotter”

The episode where Washington starts smoking pot and the other students, Epstein ,Arnold Horseshack and Vinnie Bobarino(John Travolta) try to get him to stop.

Vinnie just goes around the classroon saying ” gimme drugs gimme drugs gimme drugs”

Well, in T.O all you hear is “gottahumpahoma ,gottahumpahoma gottahumpahoma”

Regardless of what the numbers are telling us, the addiction/belief of housing as ‘best investment’ will live on for a long time.

#175 Bottoms_Up on 01.08.13 at 5:15 pm

#178 dradak1 on 01.08.13 at 4:39 pm
——————————————-
Ya, they survived to the ripe old age of 28 if they were lucky.

#176 Bottoms_Up on 01.08.13 at 5:19 pm

#160 Silver on 01.08.13 at 3:06 pm
————————————-
Well, probably most people under the age of 50 are living in bank owned properties. I’ll be living in a bank owned property until I’m 60. (I guess one could argue that once the mortgage is less than 50% the house value then technically you might own more than the bank does)
So most sales today are bank-owned sales, anyway.

#177 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.08.13 at 5:20 pm

#167Ogopogo on 01.08.13 at 3:28 pm

#154 Andrew on 01.08.13 at 2:35 pm
DA has not weighed in yet on today’s discussion…kinda took it on the chin a little yesterday…

…or maybe just taking the extra time to get those sales numbers ready for us all.

DA is “juking the stats” like the corrupt cops on the TV show, The Wire. Yesterday he stooped so low as to post juvenile comments about my manhood and Snowboid’s. That’s what happens when Kelowna realtors have all the time in the world to dream up the great Okanagan RE comeback. It will happen any day now of course… starting in 2020.

After yesterday’s fiasco, I no longer care to respond to DA. He’s a pitiful narcissist seeking validation on Garth’s blog. No more need be said about this washed up shill.

I honestly thought you both (Ogopogo and Snowboid) were women, not particularly ladylike ones but effeminate just the same. Snowboid? Come on, what guy would pick a moniker like that? Come on now. And Ogopogo? Not a lot better. Now Devil’s Advocate there’s a moniker with some heft to it. And the logo };-) says it all.

Anyway, ‘boys’ stats are lookin’ good. No we’re not going to break any records but things are off to exactly the kind of start I was expecting. I’m not making any forecasts as I don’t beyond a 6 months stated anticipation but that anticipation I felt (yes FORM BOY) “felt”, “gut instinct” whatever you want to call it is unfolding as I suspected it would.

Remember price follows volume up or down. We had a modest uptick in volume last year which will, if nothing else, keep prices constant for the next six months or so. After that it’s anybody’s guess as I don’t have a crystal ball. Six months out, max, is the limit to my foretelling ability. That said there is still concern in the condo market.

When the economy is as exuberant as it was in 2006-2007 builders tend to be pushed to complete a little too quick and quality slips. I’m hearing of problems with some buildings. I’m also hearing a lot of stories about dissention amongst the ranks of strata people. Seems every complex has is plagued by nagging, bickering, neighbours. Was in one this morning and I don’t know who was cooking what but it smelled like some kind of foul crap throughout the building.

Luckily I’ve never been a big believer in strata. As the saying goes “when you are far from your land you are near to your losses” and I figure strata removes you from the land, not as much as a Michelin foundation housing alternative but enough. But I will list either. Sell? Never, but help an owner out of their mistake? Absolutely. But I will not represent the buyer. CONDO? Give me a break. They are apartments! You rent apartments you don’t buy them!

I am sensing systemic and structural issues within the condo sector which are likely to also keep conventional title property values even less susceptible to failing.

Andrew: When Hell Freezes over. And when it does I’ll ski there too. };-)

Time for lunch

Cheers

#178 The Russian Bear on 01.08.13 at 5:24 pm

S&P edged off 5 year high. Possible equities correction coming with the debt ceiling being reached in 2 months time. If it happens = PM boom.

What’s up with mainstream economists supporting the 1 trillion dollar coin solution?

Could this be another nail of Cad RE

#179 Gypsy Kid on 01.08.13 at 5:24 pm

114 Old Tom;
Lol…were you kidding when you proclaimed that real Mercedes never go backwards??
Do YOU actually have a mercedes? I know so many people who gave up on Mercedes and bought other luxury cars because they could not deal with the bad service and the constant small annoying problems… please dont make generalizations like that; it’s worse then SM’s regular drunken tirades.

#180 Saskatoon Housing Bubble on 01.08.13 at 5:30 pm

#166 Canadian Watchdog

You probably read the rest of that report where it says this about housing prices and household income in Saskatoon.

“As the chart on the previous page illustrates, Saskatoon experienced a very
stable real estate market until the end of 2005. In 2006, average prices began
rapidly rising and had almost doubled by 2008. The market has continued
climbing. In 2011 the average price of a Saskatoon home was $309,835. CMHC
is predicting modest price increases in 2012 which will bring the average price of
a Saskatoon home to about $314,000.
Household incomes in Saskatoon have seen only modest annual increases in
recent years as shown on the bottom line of the chart.
Just before house prices started to escalate in August 2006, about $48,000 in
household income was required to purchase the average Saskatoon home. This
figure has risen to around $75,000. With the average Saskatoon household
income estimated to be around $70,000 and the median household income
estimated be below $60,000 it is evident that many Saskatoon households have
been squeezed out of the ownership market.”

“Traditionally, housing has been considered affordable if this ratio is 3.0 or less. The median multiple for Saskatoon was around 3.0 in 2006 according to census
information, but according to recent estimates it has been much higher the last
few years and was estimated to be 5.3 in 2010.”

#181 The Karma Police on 01.08.13 at 5:34 pm

‘It takes a special talent to toss a fifth of your money in five months. You should consider working for the Department of Finance.’

There you will be taught how to exponentially lose other peoples money. More fun.

Folks, let us remind you again not to engage the realtors in their deceitful ways.

Karma will take of everything for you, this is my promise.

Loss of credibility will only be matched by loss of income.

Enjoy your life and try to live within the bounds of the higher frequencies (gratitude is the highest). It does not serve your highest good to do anything other than this.

Cheers.

#182 syfon on 01.08.13 at 5:56 pm

Hi Garth
what is your opinion on US stamping 1 trillion dollars on
1 oz of platinum

#183 Inglorious Investor on 01.08.13 at 5:59 pm

#175 Glass Half Full on 01.08.13 at 4:29 pm

The article you cited is MMT pixie dust. I’ve dealt with MMT before. What they say is all true. And meaningless.

#184 Willy2 on 01.08.13 at 6:04 pm

Mr. Turner,

Didn’t you ever the books of three (well known) deflationistas called Robert Prechter (“Conquer the Crash”), Gary Shilling (“the Age of Deleveraging”), Harry S. Dent (“The Great Crash ahead”) ?

Those books make a very good convincing case why the economy, e.g. the US economy, including housing, (e.g. in the US as well) is going “to hell in a handbasket”. Why the world is moving towards a giant depression. No matter how much money the world’s central bank print.

My advice: Read the books !!!

I did. They’re wrong. — Garth

#185 Country Girl on 01.08.13 at 6:06 pm

#75 Sean Bell
You must be new here or else you wouldn’t be asking such questions.
“..are we talking about as investment? Or are we talking about primary residence.” We’re talking about making smart decisions regarding real estate to grow your assets and protect your financial future.

“…start paying $2000/month for rent instead of $900 for mortgage…” The mortgage is only one of the costs associated with home ownership. Do you pay taxes, insurance, maintenance? Also, what is the opportunity cost of having up to $130,000 equity in your home vs. in income-generating and/or tax-saving investments?

“a guaranteed 3.9% interest on my 220,000 I owe” Guaranteed for how long? If 10 years, that’s good.

#186 Form Man on 01.08.13 at 6:08 pm

#184 DA

Ok. for the last 3 years your ‘gut’ has been telling you a rebound was imminent. For the last 3 years the data has been teling me there is no rebound in site. For 3 years now you have been wrong. I will continue to trust the data over DA’s ‘gut’, and the data is telling me there is still no sign of a rebound …………

#187 Canadian Watchdog on 01.08.13 at 6:10 pm

#187 Saskatoon Housing Bubble

They’re flooding you guys with immigrants. Link

#188 syfon on 01.08.13 at 6:10 pm

Platinum jumped 2% on that news.

Show you how stupid the metals markets are. This is one bozo’s suggestion. Will never happen. Sigh. — Garth

#189 Steven Rowlandson on 01.08.13 at 6:16 pm

The fact that some properties are selling at a loss is a sign that there are real limits to what people can afford.
This trend will get more severe as the last qualified buyers get what they think they want and then expect things to get really ugly.

#190 hangfire on 01.08.13 at 6:24 pm

Hmmmm…..a few weeks in Canada was eniough for me….non stop rain….bitching and kvetching from all corners…but did I notice something interesting yesterday. The news every day was real estate ..lost puppies , ski lift advertising and greedy grapsers and other colon cleansers…wanting more out of the public purse.

I haven’t been in the YVR US immigration office for some time as said…..but it has become a scene of of the Vietnam helicopter on the roof bail out in terror picture of absolute desperation….the place is packed with Canadians desperate to plead their case after being initially turned back at primary inspection.

I asked my agent if the scene was always like it was…he said..I quote…”it’s getting worse.”….there is an massive exodus out of Canada thats of mind numbing proportions…..it’s like midnight madness at the Best Buy….and nothing in the media about it …..and 99.999% of these desperate tax, social and economic refugees ( according to my agent) are being turned back….persona non grata.

I thought just getting out of the rain to sunny warm Dallas Texas was a good thing for the rest of the winter…..and I had no problem extending my multi year visa…..but for hundreds of thousands of Canadians desperate to flee Canada every day…the border is closed.

#191 syfon on 01.08.13 at 6:27 pm

USA do not create a 1 trillion dollars out of thin air,
they attach a value of 1 oz of platinum to it.
Better that than nothing.

Easily duped, aren’t you? — Garth

#192 The Russian Bear on 01.08.13 at 6:32 pm

Equities going to recover from this correction because of better-than-expected earning news. Will be a good time to sell any short term positions.

Things will get messy with the ceiling .

Metal bugs will cluck like crazy in February /March.

Calling it now.

Buying popcorn in bulk for Q1 of 2013.

#193 The Russian Bear on 01.08.13 at 6:37 pm

Agreed with Garth – metal markets are stupid.

Trillion dollar coin only has to do with platinum due to loop hole.

Trillion dollars in no way reflects any relationship to platinum price.

Pitiful that the market has climbed so high from the news.

#194 Andrew on 01.08.13 at 6:44 pm

DA,

Epic Skate-Around Realtor SalesSpeak diatribe, absolutely fantastic!

Skiing… skiing….now where have I heard that before? Bob? is that you?
http://bobsrealestateblog.com/

I am very patient Bo..DA, if it comes to that so be it.

#195 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.08.13 at 6:47 pm

#125robert james on 01.08.13 at 12:07 pm
#116 Bill…. I live in the Okanagan so no Toronto RE ads for me.. I do pick up the Free Okanagan Mainline real estate paper once in awhile when I am short of paper for the birds.. It is amazing,,there is one realtor that always has his listing ads in there along with his picture.. The bloody birds nail him everytime.. Just like “smart bombs”.. There can be 10 realtor pictures on the page but they nail this guy everytime.. I often wonder if it is DA..

Seriously, that is about all those newspaper real estate ads are good for. I don’t advertise in the paper as virtually everybody starts their home search on the internet. I expect my listings to be “SOLD” before the print advertising ever hits the shelves.

#167 Ogopogo on 01.08.13 at 3:28 pm

After yesterday’s fiasco, I no longer care to respond to DA. He’s a pitiful narcissist seeking validation on Garth’s blog. No more need be said about this washed up shill.

Please! I would prefer you didn’t respond to my posts. Your prejudicial ignorant bias is hard not to rebuke and lowering myself to debating with such an ignorant is a gross waste of my time.

I post on this blog to provide a valid contrarian point of view with facts to back it up. Choose to believe what information I provide or ignore it. But really I am far too impatient a man to debate the merits of my truths with your wishes.

Waiting to be able to afford a home is a fools game. It’s not going to happen. Prices will never fall that far. Get off your ass and earn and save and improve your lot in life so that you can compete with all those others who are ready willing and able to pay for a home what you consider to be a rediculous price. Face it, prices will never be low enough for you because you will always think it is going to go lower.

The economy has been growing stronger not weaker. My colleagues in the US are reporting 20% increases in sales volumes. Price follows volume… And what happens in the US eventually works its way into Canada just as did the recession so too will the return to a healthy economy flow over the boarder from the US into Canada not long later.

#196 jess on 01.08.13 at 6:50 pm

gov. ability to tax

UK backed ‘development’ factory costs Mozambique millions in lost taxes
8 January 2013

Richer countries make eight times more than Mozambique from aluminium smelter…The Mozal aluminium smelter began operating on the outskirts of capital Maputo in 2000. It is a huge project in the southern African country, being responsible for 30 per cent of the country’s official exports, and using up 45 per cent of the electricity produced in Mozambique.

Mozal is exempt from taxes on profit and VAT, paying just a 1% turnover tax.(3) Moreover, it receives other generous terms. The smelter pays five times less for electricity than the average Mozambique resident, in a country where just 12 per cent of the population have access to electricity….

#197 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.08.13 at 6:56 pm

#193Form Man on 01.08.13 at 6:08 pm
#184 DA

Ok. for the last 3 years your ‘gut’ has been telling you a rebound was imminent. For the last 3 years the data has been teling me there is no rebound in site. For 3 years now you have been wrong. I will continue to trust the data over DA’s ‘gut’, and the data is telling me there is still no sign of a rebound …………

Don’t dick around with my words Form Boy. I never said anything about a “rebound” being imminent. I have no crystal ball. I do not forecast out more than 6 months. Volume increases for six or more months inevitably lead to price increases or at least no drops in prices. The market has been flat for the past four years. I expect it will continue to be ‘flat’ for another period of time. Certainly the next six months will remain flat with no price drops. There might, in fact, be modest price increases over the next six months. Beyond that who knows? Maybe the bank rate will be cranked up. That would put a damper on prices for sure, but not until after a short period of exuberance as buyers tried to beat that interest rate increase.

I forecast no ‘rebound’ in the foreseeable six months ahead. I do most certainly believe eventually a ‘rebound’ will happen and I am quite sure it will catch you and many others by complete surprise.

#198 Ronaldo on 01.08.13 at 6:57 pm

#113 Willy2 – I agee with Garth.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Super+cycle+forest+products+expected+send+lumber+prices+2013/7684294/story.html

”Believe what you wish, but sales, prices and construction are all significantly ahead of six months ago. Americans are more confident than you are, which is all that matters. — Garth”

When Jimmy P. was busy buying up shares in CFP a few months back at $10.00, that was the cue to hop in. Today closed at $18.10. Thanks Jimmy.

#199 Stu on 01.08.13 at 6:58 pm

SAVED FROM THE FISCAL CLIFF!

DELETED – You attempted to post an 800-word article. Use a link. — Garth

#200 reno real estate guy on 01.08.13 at 7:05 pm

Very entertaining article Garth!,

i do honestly feel very bad for gail, even though with maybe 1% more effort and research she wouldn’t have made the terrible decision she did. Thanks for this fun post keep up the good work!

-Daytona

#201 Bill Gable on 01.08.13 at 7:21 pm

I like Michael Levy, after working with him for a few years, ta certain Vancouver media outlet – but he sells precious metals for a living and has been drinking the same Kool aid as Cameron Muir and other RE zealots.
I have the feeling that the melt will become Niagara Falls in quick time.

China, I will say it again – is in deep economic trouble.

The HAM fantasy is over.

Believe Mr. Turner on this.

NO POSSEE coming to bail outhouse horny idiots in this Rain soaked, nowhere part of the world.

Vancouver people think they are entitled. Or maybe they should quit drinking so much coffee and get smart.

This is 1981, on steroids.

Take that to the bank.

#202 Andrew on 01.08.13 at 7:21 pm

“Waiting to be able to afford a home is a fools game. It’s not going to happen”

Careful DABob, you are starting to slip….

Numbers please until then credibility 0.

#203 Stickler on 01.08.13 at 7:48 pm

“This is a rare but meaningful opportunity for you to heap ridicule, abuse and even sympathy upon people who are probably too dumb to own money. ”

>> I ridicule the following:
- People who wear scarfs in non-scarf weather

- People who wear scarfs that are more then 3 times as long as they should be.

- People who spend 30-50K++ on a kitchen renovation when they don’t even know how to cook, and typically eat take out.

- People who “need to renovate”, because living in a house with white appliances and non granite counters is just not possible. (the horror!!)

- People who waste resources in general (and housing is a big part of this). Landfill for appliances, kitchens & fixtures that still work fine so you can import products from other countries (using resources), and shipping them here (using resources) because they “catch your eye” better. Brazilian granite anyone!?

- Douche bags that think they are environmentally friendly because they recycle their cans and bottles.

I could go on, and on…

#204 Stickler on 01.08.13 at 7:50 pm

>>>>oh PS Bamboo is renewable because it grows fast…but Canada is not known for it’s bamboo forests, so how do you think it gets here? Doosh.

#205 eddy on 01.08.13 at 8:01 pm

@Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad

re : Sandy Hook

here is a Canadian site which discusses that topic
He says Dolt On e Guilty was one of the first to affirm the sandy hook psyop (all flags at half mast, new entry locks and buzzers on all Ontario schools etc.)

http://radio.abirato.info/

#206 TurnerNation on 01.08.13 at 8:03 pm

In Soviet Kanada, home finds you!!

http://www.homefindsyou.ca/

“New or resale, make signing a B.R.A. your first move. ”

“If you choose to be on the Buyer Registry Service® your REALTOR® representative will enter your preferences into a database.”

Burn your BRAs! You’ve some a long way, Baby.

#207 Form Man on 01.08.13 at 8:11 pm

#204 DA

of course the market will rebound someday, and the data will warn well in advance……..

of course for those who ignore data, surprise is almost assured………….

#208 jess on 01.08.13 at 8:16 pm

the nerve of some people’s animals.

AIG to sue the usa gov.? reuters

======

CBO projects that interest rates will remain very low for the next several years and then will rise to
more-normal levels as output approaches its potential.
The number of vacancies remains very high. For that reason, among others, CBO projects weak near-term growth in residential investment.

http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/OutlookSlides.pdf
=

#209 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.08.13 at 8:17 pm

-
#194 Canadian Watchdog — People entering Canada, and #197 hangfire — People exiting Canada. Guess the status quo remains the same!
*
1:49:29 doc. From Freedom to Fascism. Exactly what Frank Zappa said in the mid-80s, about heading toward a fascist dictatorship. Canada is following suit as well, and Wall St. and SS “It is not accidental that Vice-President Biden assured Boston Mayor Menino that Obama would have some gun-ban mechanism (perhaps, by executive order?) in place by the 31st of this month.”; wrh.com; Disney Tightening its belt; 2013 World Economy Ups and downs, highs and lows, peaks and troughs; ObombaCare Taco Bell franchise switching to part time workers to avoid OCare; VAT If income tax is tossed, then bring in VAT; Orlando Fining family US$500 / day for growing garden (dictatorship); China and Thorium Making headway; Cheap Money era flattening out; Nine Step Method for global slavery.
*
Gun Control — 9 to 1 against “The ‘hell no’ caucus!!”, NRA Not only about guns, freedoms as well, Psychiatric Drugs and Sandy Hook Closer to the truth, A New Approach (albeit different) to medicine and Fear of Tyranny There is nothing to be afraid of. What can anyone do? Congress Not doing the best oof jobs; The Tide is Shifting, but whether the dumbass politicos / lobbyists care to take note is another matter, such as 2013 – The time when sheeple start bleating about their lot in life; Science Sux “Environmentalism criminalizes life and legalizes it on its terms.”; Monsanto Poland bans GM crops; Teleportation Beam me into next month, Scotty.

#210 Oakvillian on 01.08.13 at 8:22 pm

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1311871–toronto-housing-prices-to-flatline-in-2013-report

#211 Canadian Watchdog on 01.08.13 at 9:00 pm

#212 TurnerNation

TREB doing anything they can to control price history disclosure. They know open data will ruin them.

#212 Devore on 01.08.13 at 9:03 pm

#185 The Russian Bear

S&P edged off 5 year high. Possible equities correction coming with the debt ceiling being reached in 2 months time. If it happens = PM boom.

Like the last 30 times the debt ceiling was reached and then immediately extended? Or is this time different?

#213 AK on 01.08.13 at 9:07 pm

#176 skeptical on 01.08.13 at 4:30 pm

“My analysis is a little more complicated. as i said, within 3 months, at most, the bear market will be obvious to everyone, including you.”

Okay, you are on. let’s touch base again on April 08, 2013. 3 months from today.

#214 Devore on 01.08.13 at 9:10 pm

#189 syfon

what is your opinion on US stamping 1 trillion dollars on
1 oz of platinum

April 1st is still nearly 4 months away.

#215 Jon B on 01.08.13 at 9:21 pm

Really enjoyed this one. Geez some people are really messed up.

#216 Devore on 01.08.13 at 9:22 pm

#192 Country Girl

“…start paying $2000/month for rent instead of $900 for mortgage…” The mortgage is only one of the costs associated with home ownership. Do you pay taxes, insurance, maintenance?

Certainly, but when your housing costs are that low, it means you have bought a long time ago, certainly before the current boom. So if it is your residence, it is a matter of practicalities. Where do you live? In some places, the rental situation is very dismal indeed. Is it worth it to lower your quality of life? To what end? You may want to sell to downsize. Now might be a good time. Maybe your house has gone up hugely, and you’re sitting on windfall profits. Could you afford to buy your house today? Many who bought 10 years ago will say “hell no!”. Might be a good time to sell to capture the lottery winnings, again, depending on personal situation. Alternately, if you do have a paid off, or nearly paid off house, you may want to get some of that equity working for you, instead of sitting dead. Probably a better idea than selling and renting for double your ownership costs.

If your personal residence was bought for a reasonable price (not monthly cost, but total price), and it fits your life situation, you shouldn’t monkey with it. It will end in tears.

#217 Snowboid on 01.08.13 at 10:19 pm

#213 Form Man on 01.08.13 at 8:11 pm…

The golden boy of Kelowna RE must be close to the ‘breaking’ point again, when he starts showing his anger by insults and name-calling.

This, of course, is following the predictable behaviour model normally followed.

It was best describe by Chris in a 12.01.10 post:

How to be just like the Devil’s Advocate,

1. Begin by writing to Garth about how the world is insane, there is no point to Garth educating people, blabber a lot and basically act like an ass. (1 week ago)

2. Follow it up over the next several days with some rather well structured and well thought out posts, that come as a result of it being pointed out he is once again behaving foolishly.

3. Increase the velocity of these posts.

4. Begin to try and take over the direction of the blog by challenging Garth over his strongly held beliefs.

5. When Garth doesn’t take the bait, get angry.

6. Call people names like…asshole. (Yesterday)

7. Then have Garth respond with “Your arguments were more cogent before you became abusive. — Garth”

8. State that “Truth prevails always and can not be manipulated to say anything other than what it is.”

9. Once kindly reprimanded by Garth, revert to the fetal position with “But Garth, come on now, even in that post of mine you just censured you must have sensed the love bro? You know I respect you. And what would this blog be without a Devil’s Advocate. Come on now were good… right?”

10. Completely try to ignore the fact that your poor behaviour is a regular problem that you claim to be willing to clean up, but never do.

11. Talk about integrity.

12. Ignore the fact that you made a public statement of accountability several months ago that you asked people to hold you to.

13. Break your promises.

14. Look like an hypocrite.

15 Repeat the process over many months.

Follow these 15 steps if you want to become as unstable as the Devil’s Advocate.

P.S. – Remember what DA said – “Truth prevails always and can not be manipulated to say anything other than what it is.”

You will be a man of integrity just like him…and very self aware too!

#218 bill on 01.08.13 at 10:35 pm

13. Break your promises.
his most egregious sin is that he promises to leave and then comes back.

#219 Country Girl on 01.08.13 at 11:19 pm

#222 Devore on 01.08.13 at 9:22 pm
I was responding to post #75. Sean said he paid $350k and because he asked “Should I sell and get my money back?” it doesn’t sound like there are windfall profits to be realized.
Otherwise, I agree with your comments.

#220 syfon on 01.08.13 at 11:31 pm

#220 Devore
I personaly ask Garth for his opinion.
Since you are acting like his little helper or mini him it would be beneficial to get informed.
Information posted was from official source.

#221 Willy2 on 01.09.13 at 4:44 pm

Mr. Turner,

Seems you still believe the “Inflation Myth”. Until I have firm evidence to the contrary I will continue to be a “Deflationista”. Did you never listen to mr. Bob Hoye (www.howestreet.com) ? He’s a deflationista as well.

“Science advances one funeral at a time”. Max Planck.

According to my info, there’re a number of regions in the US, that still enjoy population growth. Those regions will suffer less. But my firm impression is that “Suburbia” is suffering and even in the first stages of dying. And will continue to suffer more in the next deflationary downturn.
http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=40366

Never visited mr. Steve Keen’s website ?
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

Discussion closed. We’ll see who’s wrong and right in the next weeks/months/year(s).

#222 futureexpatriate on 01.11.13 at 4:11 am

Alex Jones and friends need not fear unmanned drones any more than they fear tanks. A whole lot of tanks coming home from the Mideast to deal with America’s gun nut problem, should they get any more stupid.