Not pretty

car1

While the first three business days of a year mean diddly in the scope of things, pay attention. This is precisely the pattern I’ve been telling you for months to expect. Financial assets ascending. Real assets descending. Money surging from bonds to stocks. Commodities squished. And real estate taking it on the chin.

So, your bond fund lost money this week. So did your house in Vancouver. And your silver and gold. In contrast, the S&P 500 (the only US market to watch) rose 4.6% and is now at the highest level since December of 2007. The Dow added 3.8%. Even the Russell 2000, an index of small companies, surged 5.7%, to an all-time crest.

Last year the S&P added more than 13%, despite the fiscal cliff, a US election, the Israel-Hamas war, revolution in Syria, global debt worries and Justin Bieber. Why? Because you should never bet against America, where unemployment continues to slowly erode, the real estate market has bounced off bottom, recession talk’s over, Obama romped to re-election and corporate profits surged 11% in the last quarter.

Face it: there’ll not be another 2008. The world will slowly grow out of its debt morass. Bond prices will fall and yields rise. Central bank stimulus will end. Rates will eventually normalize. US unemployment will fall to 6%, and never again will a house in Phoenix, Miami or Chicago trade for what it did in 2010.

This is why a no-stock, no-mutuals, middle-of-the-road, low-tax, balanced portfolio gave a double-digit return in 2012, beating housing, gold and shaming your pathetic high-interest savings account. Will it continue this year? Beats me. But I’m guessing.

Left at the curb will be Canadian real estate. That much seems clear.

I thought about that as the CBC reporter fussed with her equipment in my office Friday afternoon. She was there to get some pithy little sound bites (no, I do not have a lisp) on this week’s gruesome numbers out of Toronto and Vancouver realtors. As you know, sales romped lower last month by 31% in Vancouver and 19.5% in Toronto – compared to the previous December. Van detached homes are now devaluing by 1% a month, while the price melt is just coming to the GTA.

For nine months now the big pool of buyers has been drying up. That’s news. But even bigger news is that it’s now news. The fact CBC’s flagship national radio newscast ran a piece on the “condo scare in Toronto” and the “awful numbers” in Vancouver where buyers are sitting back, “waiting for the bubble to burst” should scare the probiotics out of sellers everywhere.

And then there’s this:

CHART

Yet another scary chart and real-estate-is-screwed story in the MSM, this time the Globe and Mail. The week ended not only with a CBC assault, but a worthy column by academic George Athanassakos with the headline, “Why housing prices aren’t coming back.”

Smart George neatly summarized some recent themes here: house prices are supported by debt, not increased income or economic growth. Real estate now comprises w-a-y too much of the overall economy, just as it did in poor California. And the biggest shark in the soup bowl is demographics – what all those hideous, wrinkly Boomers will be doing to real estate, starting in about 24 months.

That chart up there plots the ratio of working-age people to the young and the old. The more people not working, the higher the ratio goes and the more negative for real estate. As the population ratio jumps, home prices come down. And there’s nothing anyone can do about it.

In fact, Professor A makes me sound like the ultimate voice of reason.

“I calculate that the price of condos in Toronto should be, on average, about $100,000 less than they are now;” he writes. “As a result, one can expect about a 25% decline in condo prices over the next few years. In the long run, the decline could be even more significant.

“Of course, different regions may have different results, but I believe a perfect storm is coming in the housing market. Canada will experience significant “secular,” or long-term, decline in house prices starting around 2015, when the population ratio is about to turn upward based on Statistics Canada projections. The extent of this correction will surprise many people. Once the cyclical decline in housing is thought to be over and everyone prepares for an upturn in the housing market, the long-term impact of demographics will make itself felt and it will not be pretty.”

The perfect storm in the real estate market, now starting to feed the media, and becoming a tenet of Main Street thinking. As more people – especially the virgins – see the potential for loss and financial entrapment, that house horniness we’ve been living with will ebb. Meanwhile those parts of the world where citizens have tackled debt, devalued real estate and deleveraged, move closer to renaissance.

Don’t fight it.

236 comments ↓

#1 Bottoms_Up on 01.04.13 at 10:17 pm

That’s why over the long term probably the only solace from the demography nuke is to own real estate in the high demand neighbourhoods.

#2 Marco from van on 01.04.13 at 10:22 pm

And now see how quickly HAM will move onto the next destination. Speculators don’t like losses no matter how much shark fin soup is sold in Richmond…

#3 Dave on 01.04.13 at 10:23 pm

why do you keep saying the U.S is on a rebound ? unemployment only goes down when people leave the work force. Also with the payroll tax cut expiring taxes are going up on the middle class so consumption will go down. These are not signs of the U.S on rebound my friend garth.

#4 LuckyRenter on 01.04.13 at 10:23 pm

Canada’s housing market: Watch for falling prices

Thursday might go down as a watershed moment for the Canadian economy.

That’s when the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver released housing data for the month of December and the entire year. The numbers confirmed what many housing bears have been predicting for months, even years: the one-time epicentre of Canada’s housing boom has now turned bust.

Home sales plummeted 31.1 percent in December compared to last year. On a month-over-month basis, home sales were down an even steeper 32.3 percent from November.

Sales were also more than 38.4 percent below the 10-year average for December.

The real estate board itself is referring to the situation in Vancouver as a “collective hesitation” by home buyers and sellers, which depending on your view of the housing market may go down as a massive understatement or just a poetic way of saying housing pullback. Housing bears will likely have much stronger words for what’s happening in Vancouver.
While some economists have taken to telling investors that Vancouver is a special case and what’s happening there won’t be repeated around the country — that might be wishful thinking. Toronto’s booming housing market is beginning to show cracks, particularly in the condo segment. So, too, is Montreal’s condo market.

Taken together, that’s the three largest cities in the country, accounting for more than a third of Canada’s entire population, experiencing a pullback in housing activity. If the “hesitation” taking hold in those three cities turns into something worse, the entire economy will take a hit.

But that hasn’t happened yet (and may not happen at all). But Thursday’s data on Vancouver’s housing market is the most potent sign that the call for a quaint, soft landing might have to be revised.

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2013/1/4/Canadas-housing-market-Watch-for-falling-prices.aspx

#5 Sasquatch on 01.04.13 at 10:23 pm

hmmm. Just got to keep pushing back the retirement age. it’s already happening. a lot of people between 20-40 are going to work until they die.

I’ll keep saying it.

#6 LJ on 01.04.13 at 10:25 pm

#1: A lot of the boomers will be working until they die…

#7 Bottoms_Up on 01.04.13 at 10:27 pm

#161 Boomer21 on 01.04.13 at 4:44 pm
———————————————
It is good to teach the young how to be financial prudent.

But wouldn’t the better ‘real life’ lesson be to teach them that putting that $30 on a credit card, and paying off that credit card each month before it accumulates interest charges, can earn them ‘free’ stuff, as well as enhance their credit rating, which, down the road, is worth thousands of dollars in savings because they will get the very best mortgage and credit line interest rates?

#8 Michael F on 01.04.13 at 10:31 pm

My long term view of the stockmarket is becoming more negative day by day. Maybe I read too many ZeroHedge articles.

#9 wes coast on 01.04.13 at 10:34 pm

Falling house prices. Rising stock prices. Normalizing rates. Falling unemployment. A strong renewed America -what next – the MSM no longer labelling you a doom and gloomer??

Great predictions I must say Garth – what you’ve called in the last year has come to fruition. I didn’t always fully understand your logic at the time but bloody hell – you’ve called it accurately on all fronts.

#10 Dave on 01.04.13 at 10:36 pm

also how can you how can you say central bank stimulus will end? with the fed printing 85 billion a month its reasonable to think their the biggest buyer of U.S debt.so if they stop who will buy ? maybe if the euro zone crisis gets worse then there will be buyers temporarily. But wouldn’t that just make people realize no government bonds are safe. We Are in a sovereign debt crisis

#11 W on 01.04.13 at 10:37 pm

Can’t they increase the amount of immigration of working age people to offset some of this demographic risk?

#12 DaleFromCalgary on 01.04.13 at 10:38 pm

Front pages of the Calgary Herald and the Metro today were trumpeting that the City of Calgary property tax assessments being mailed out this week were up 3%. This is apparently a good thing.

Meanwhile, a house in Altadore two blocks from me remains unsold. It was completed in summer 2008 and has never been occupied. Several condo towers I’ve seen have multiple For Sale signs.

Gold up 7% in 2012. Term deposits paying negative real interest
rates. But the sheeple would rather watch Undercover Boss.

What is to be done?

#13 Chickenlittle on 01.04.13 at 10:39 pm

After reading the Hunger Games trilogy this week, and watching a show about how the New World Order is going to destroy us all, this post actually doesn’t seem so gloomy after all. I could care less if I end up renting for the rest of my life. I live far better than many people in the world do, so I have nothing to complain about. We have it way too good!

#14 freakazoid on 01.04.13 at 10:42 pm

DELETED

#15 coastal on 01.04.13 at 10:43 pm

“corporate profits surged 11% in the last quarter.”

Mainly due to the major reduction in buying new equipment etc according to many well known analysts. The Fed pulling back on the QE is drunken table talk by a few of them to rattle the cages of the metalheads. I’ll believe it when Bernanke claims it’s over which won’t be for a couple more years. Pimco boss Bill Gross is buying gold so what does that tell you ?

#16 John on 01.04.13 at 10:48 pm

Check out the latest Macleans edition… “Inside the great real estate crash of 2013″ on the cover page.

#17 MD on 01.04.13 at 10:48 pm

Garth you always mention Canadian boomers being on the hook but what about US boomers are they not in the same demographics. And i guess after 2009 collapse they too are not heavily invested in stocks and depend on whatever value their homes hold.

#18 Sasquatch on 01.04.13 at 10:49 pm

#6 W
immigrants typically cost more to the country and economy than contribute of about 7 years. can’t remember where I found that number, but think about how long it takes to learn the language, gain the skill to meet the level of quality Canada tends to put out, and all the gov grants and services they use.

Also it still doesn’t solve the problem that old age retirement is a pyramid scheme. I have noticed most immigrants come with what ever kids they got, and or have 1-2 just like us and stop. It would take having an average of 2-4 kids per household to keep the scheme alive. right now we have 1-2.

That all costs money, then they have to “pay” that off and continue to be productive members of society.

#19 John on 01.04.13 at 10:57 pm

Prices of real estate have doubled during last years, and everyone agrees now that is was not sustainable as it wasn’t supported by income or employment growth. Using the rule of 72 if stocks deliver 7% annual growth, then stock should double in 10 years. That’s the same as with RE. How such growth can be sustainable? Sure firms got more efficient, but not to that extent to justify such a rapid expansion… Is it a time for a different bubble?
In addition if housing market crashes hard, wouldn’t it drag along the rest of the economy and ultimately the stocks?

For the bonds, shall we sell them too? I have about some money in bond index that tracks SC Universe Bond Index.

#20 Smoking Man on 01.04.13 at 10:59 pm

Economist, msm, anyalitics guru’s charts, fundamentals.

They mean sqwat, the herd is afraid of all you preach o Harry face.

They don’t fear real estate, and want the status of an owner, powerful, emotions that your logic will not penetrate.

No rate hike, no job losses no price crash, the gloom and doom has put some on the side lines, as prices hold and pent up demand pressure builds.. The fence sitters will jump in in mass surging prices and they will never trust msm again…..

LaughingCon will lose it, and go throw eggs at realtor windows…

#21 richmond bc on 01.04.13 at 11:04 pm

Here in Hamsville of Richmond, BC today’s update:

33 new listings, 5 price drops, wait for it………1 sale.
I’m lonely, so lonely…

#22 AK on 01.04.13 at 11:08 pm

“Will it continue this year?”

Some believe that Europe will also rebound in 2013.

http://beta.fool.com/saintgermain/2012/12/29/which-region-will-outperform-2013/20169/

#23 Hoof - Hearted on 01.04.13 at 11:09 pm

Psssst :

They are not making anymore”_____”

Fill in the blank and invest

#24 espressobob on 01.04.13 at 11:10 pm

#8 Michael F

Good point! Maybe you should view those articles for what they really are and think of them as a “Sales Pitch”. After all, bad news sells!

#25 Mark W on 01.04.13 at 11:16 pm

“The perfect storm in the real estate market.”

And in places like Winnipeg it will be the perfect s*#t storm a’ comin.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12230707&PidKey=-1177241627

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12631380&PidKey=372208103

Or Richmond BC.

#26 Smoking Man on 01.04.13 at 11:19 pm

It’s was hallarious reading today the bank of Canada mad at banks being to loose with loot.

Ha their policies for the last 30 years since the days of John crow have been to keep wages low by maintaining a surplus of labor using interest rates as the control.

The only chart that matters to them now is the trade balance. The game has changed. With our high flying Lonnie they can not and will not spike rates until we have steady surplus…………

The reason people are in debt is because wages have not kept up, or in my case I mortgage to the 9s at 3precent for a 9 percent return in commercial mortgages free money.

On this pathetic blog I’m like the guy in church screaming at the preacher saying no way a corps can come back to life after being dead for 3 days…or turning water into wine…….

The followers laugh me out of the building…..

Just saying…….

But to blame banks is l

#27 Dr. WAYNE on 01.04.13 at 11:22 pm

Hope your prognostications for are ‘on’ … pretty good for 2012.

#28 dosouth on 01.04.13 at 11:25 pm

apparently we are weathering the real estate downfall rather well here in Nanaimo. The Cameron Muir show appears to be what mid-island real estate execs. have hitched their wagons to…..

http://tinyurl.com/appmxmb

It must be time for you to come over to Nanaimo Garth and shake things up a bit – Heck I’d help organize the meeting.

#29 Boomer21 on 01.04.13 at 11:27 pm

Garth two questions please.
1. If bond prices coming down and yields rise is it not the time to buy bonds? Lower prices, higher yields is a good thing right?
2. Once the cyclical decline in housing is over and demographics take over, aren’t there as many baby boomers in America as here and won’t that take another hit at housing in the US? We are not different right? Getting a little confused here, maybe need to read your book again but your help would be appreciated.

1. Wait. 2. Not after a 32% price decline. — Garth

#30 EIT on 01.04.13 at 11:32 pm

Does anybody realize how hard it is to search PM on this website?…

#31 Seven Stars and Orion on 01.04.13 at 11:37 pm

Smoking Man,

Your Houdini-Power will not work on me!!!
I will NOT text my Realtor tomorrow!!!!
I… WILL….. NOT.

um, hey. what was that URL again?
ratesupermarket.ca?
arggggh.

#32 JE on 01.04.13 at 11:39 pm

Thanks for the New Year laugh, appreciate the humor. Almost as funny as the continuing Port Mann bridge saga; talk about money that’s never coming back… I remember when Japan’s RE bubble burst; a book was published on what could have been done with all that money. Something like 3 round trips to Mars; hospital in every 3rd world city, etc.

#33 Smoking Man on 01.04.13 at 11:43 pm

Im going to school you followers who zillionares think.

You keep loot in bank only 100k is safe it’s insured.
You keep 1 million in a trading account 1million is safe.
You got 10 to 20 million split it out in different trading accounts.

Now if you have 100 million and up what do you do to keep it safe?

Not easy……..in these risky times……

You find country that is rich in resources, that country has to have a well schooled obidianeant population that don’t have bushmasters in the closet. That country has to have stable guys running the money printing press not devaluing your loot by printing non stop…

Once found, you take a good chunk of your loot and buy real estate in city’s that have positive population growth for years to come,

Canada baby, you can’t live in your car in winter….

Bye Toronto real estate or you will be sorry……

#34 claudius emperor on 01.04.13 at 11:44 pm

disclosure: I have less than 5 % of my portoflio in P.M.

#35 Keith on 01.04.13 at 11:49 pm

Garth the assessment just arrived today on my East Vancouver house – up 30K from last year’s assessment. Not happy.

#36 Not pretty — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate « The Affluent Boomer™ on 01.04.13 at 11:49 pm

[...] via Not pretty — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate. [...]

#37 not 1st on 01.04.13 at 11:58 pm

Garth, I am afraid you have become the defacto doomer den-mother these days.

So we are to believe an economic resurgence is going to emerge while people’s real assets are falling in value? When houses correct by 30% and the value of real productive assets keeps falling, there won’t be consumers out spending.

1980-82 and 1989-91 is your most recent example of an asset deflationary cycle and they were both accompanied by recession until interest rate and government stimulus was brought to bear on the problem. Doesn’t matter how much the stock market goes up.

US economic recovery. Canadian morass. Learn to read. — Garth

#38 Not on the boat. on 01.05.13 at 12:02 am

Here I hoping change is coming to RE agents as well. Sad thing is no matter how much the market deflates agents will be laughing all the way to the bank. Having pulled money out on all sides and all markets. Bending truth and thowing clients under any bus for profit. Sick.

#39 DA why don't you mention all the foreclosures in Kelowna too! on 01.05.13 at 12:02 am

#75 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 01.04.13 at 2:24 am

Now DA…are you going man up here and accept the challenge below or just cower and slink off into the morass you call your ethics.

Here’s the challenge in case you forgot:

“Here’s a challenge for you DA since you’re telling us how healthy the Kelowna real estate market is, why don’t you also tell us the total number of million dollar houses that have fallen into foreclosure from the time they were first listed. Say within the last year to keep the number manageable …. remember to be honest and ethical its part of your New Years resolutions.”

You know DA we’re starting to hold you to higher standards … so far your not living up to your New Years resolution…but there is time for you to recover. I’m sure you can do it.

#40 claudius emperor on 01.05.13 at 12:05 am

Hm,

It seems no numbers are allowed on P.M. No problem.
Just pointing out that P.M. did not decline significantly so far in 2013. They will decline more before resuming upward trend by my humble opinion.

Otherwise very nice returns from the 70 % of my portolio in dividend paying stocks, etfs, preferreds, selected bonds.

Housing is doomed for few more years. If printing in the states continues and F manages to hang on (he won’t) Real estate might look like a good investment few years down the road (just look at the states…)

#41 Smoking Man on 01.05.13 at 12:07 am

Amazing discovery tonight, I often ask myself why am I successful how do I always see the obvious that others don’t. I googled dyslexia and found out that Im in a league of of the best…

People are easily brain washed when they hear reparative words or read.

Dyslexics are visual. They tune sound out, that’s why they can’t pronounce or write words correctly.

Try this guys, go on an infomercial channel, turn the sound off. Just look at the guy or chic selling…. You won’t by it…….then put the sound on….way different.

Just staying……..

#42 claudius emperor on 01.05.13 at 12:10 am

I am slowly starting to agree with Smoking Man

houses at two millions,
Gas/Milk at $5 litter,
Sugar $5 per kilo
(no PM numbers allowed so I won’t quote them)
we are getting there…

#43 espressobob on 01.05.13 at 12:10 am

# 36 claudious emperor

Smart move dude! For what its worth you might consider spreading that bet into the miners for diversification sake. Just one mans opinion. Good luck!

#44 Mr Buyer on 01.05.13 at 12:14 am

#35 Smoking Man on 01.04.13 at 11:43 pm
Bye Toronto real estate or you will be sorry……
…………………………………….
Now Zillionaires are going to save the TO real estate market. Priceless.

#45 Ken R on 01.05.13 at 12:16 am

Nice pic Garth; my wife putting another wrinkle the hood of my new wheels! That would be number three I think. Lovely woman, but she has an thing for creased sheet metal.

#46 Cowpie on 01.05.13 at 12:19 am

Property tax assessments are starting to show up in Cowtown. Mine just came in the mail today. My “assessed property value” is down from last year, about 5%…anyone else?

#47 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.05.13 at 12:28 am

Not sure how got the camera angle ……but sure do like that “Thelma and Louise” re- make with Dr Wayne and Smoking Man .

Can you do the sequel in a Kia, …..1972 Ford Pinto in reverse gear….. or a Smart Car ?

#48 claudius emperor on 01.05.13 at 12:28 am

# 35 smoking man,

just to point out that there are record number of millionaire’s homes for sale in Paris, apparently rich people move out of France for tax purposes.

Where would you buy: GTA or Paris (you could buy a castle in France for less than a shack in the rainy city.. Hongcuver)

BTW Spain is giving citizenship if one buys home over 160 k Euro (220 kCa). Great wheather, great health care. Paradise for retirement (forget about Costa Rica)

#49 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.05.13 at 12:31 am

Lots of realtors in Richmond with Shark Fins tied to their backs..maybe getting ready for Chinese New Year….

#50 Bob on 01.05.13 at 12:31 am

She was there to get some pithy little sound bites (no, I do not have a lisp)
~lines like this are why I keep coming back!

heres some fun for those not
yet convinced:
Howard Beale: You’re beginning to believe the illusions we’re spinning here, you’re beginning to believe that the tube is reality and your own lives are unreal. You do. Why, whatever the tube tells you: you dress like the tube, you eat like the tube, you raise your children like the tube, you even think like the tube. This is mass madness, you maniacs. In God’s name, you people are the real thing, WE are the illusion.
Share this quote
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGIY5Vyj4YM

#51 Smoking Man on 01.05.13 at 12:32 am

Did you guys know Agatha Christy, could not write, see dictate , to typist see was a hard core dyslexic.

Please will one of you guys help me finish, actuly start my book. I can’t do it my self…….

Please help

#52 Smoking Man on 01.05.13 at 12:34 am

Mr Buyer I am willing to wager that you are a great reader and writer.
No one is perfect

#53 Furst on 01.05.13 at 12:35 am

#20 Smoking Man on 01.04.13 at 10:59 pm
Economist, msm, anyalitics guru’s charts, fundamentals.

You really think all of Cdn real estate will go up? I can understand the argument of established hoods in the Tdot or even possibly Van. Zillionaires would buy there but not in rural PEI or backwater ON. For one moment, I shall suspend disbelief and assume you’re successful. If so then state your thinking more clearly. BTW, despite my creative poetic soul, I’m probably richer than you…just sayin.

#54 freakazoid on 01.05.13 at 12:42 am

Mine gets deleted and #14 stays up?

Not any more. — Garth

Clearly you two are afraid of the MOPS!
The MOPS of PROFIT!

#55 claudius emperor on 01.05.13 at 12:45 am

$ 46 espressobob,

There are some etfs for it. (not in individual stocks…)
I also have some physical metal (and etf based on that).

If P.M crash my kids will play someday with silver, gold and platinum coins and bulions monopoly… maybe pocker. Centuries ago they called such things a treasure and only selected few could afford it.

Maybe that time wil come back again, who knows….

#56 espressobob on 01.05.13 at 12:46 am

#39 Not pretty etc. I’m suprised Docter Wayne hasn’t noticed you?

#57 Smoking Man on 01.05.13 at 12:56 am

#56 first

I don’t think it re will go up I know……..just talking Toronto, don’t givea shit about anywhere else, don’t know the herd in the other markets….

What is your definition of rich….that.. Is the question. Depends how you define it. So don’t make that bet with our a laywer

#58 Saskatoon-Living on 01.05.13 at 12:58 am

What did you think of your buddy Brad Lamb today on BNN??

http://watch.bnn.ca/the-close/january-2013/the-close-january-4-2013/#clip837503

How about some S’toon RE Kool-Aid??

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/business/Saskatoon+record+construction+year/7773794/story.html

#59 broadway skytrain on 01.05.13 at 1:21 am

#47 Mr Buyer on 01.05.13 at 12:14 am
#35 Smoking Man on 01.04.13 at 11:43 pm
Bye Toronto real estate or you will be sorry……
…………………………………….
Now Zillionaires are going to save the TO real estate market. Priceless.
————————————————————

need more ipads?
need more bmw’s?
need more food, clothes ,jets, thousand $ handbags,lawnmowers, condos, baseballs, gold, or indoor rc helicopters?

no problem – easy,make (or dig up)more (at a lower incremental cost, of course)

need some land near a major city center or some sweet waterfront?
our wise and patient host says ‘demand areas’.

these can’t be reproduced or replicated.

could one not look at the speedy gains in these areas
as simply a consequence of the great increase in total money in existence, combined with single truly ‘rare’ item -land with location – which people need/want/crave?

those zillionares (or anyone with a high income)can pay for all the ‘stuff’ and have plenty left over for RE. everyday there are more people competing for fewer prime plots of land. (not milton or cloverdale:( )

so inner toronto sfh will be 2-3-4M eventually and it will keep going up as long as population grows and more money exists. cause ipads only get cheaper in relative terms.

maybe that’s why even after all the US has been through, it remains mostly more expensive for a similar house/area in a major west coast city as one would find in zany vancouver.

———————–
ps – got my first delete today, totally deserved it too.
Sorry to the Great Garth, and thank you for blocking my lameass post. Won’t happen again.

#60 Cici on 01.05.13 at 1:29 am

For those of you who aren’t yet convinced…look what the real estate cartels were ramming down the throats of the average American back in 2005/6:

http://www.amazon.com/Real-Estate-Boom-Will-Bust/dp/0385514352

Read the reviews and either laugh or weep (depending on whether you are a renter, recent renter, or recent buyer).

#61 Victor V on 01.05.13 at 1:29 am

Here is the G&M Athanassakos article for those wishing to comment there:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/why-housing-prices-arent-coming-back/article6929120/

#62 Furst on 01.05.13 at 1:38 am

#60 Smoking Man on 01.05.13 at 12:56 am
#56 first

I don’t think it re will go up I know……..just talking Toronto, don’t givea shit about anywhere else, don’t know the herd in the other markets….

What is your definition of rich….that.. Is the question. Depends how you define it. So don’t make that bet with our a laywer
______________________________________
Based upon your historic posts, it would be safe to assume that ‘rich’ from your perspective would refer to financial wealth. I haven’t noticed any of your other posts where rich would refer to anything else than hard core currency. So to be clear, I’m saying I’m likely richer than you financially. How much do you make in a year?

#63 AG Sage on 01.05.13 at 1:51 am

I don’t know why I’m biting on Smoking Man’s bait, maybe because for a sentence or two, he’s making sense back on post 27.

Sure, foreigners can swing an RE market. It’s priced on the margin. I watched RE agents in Cali swing the market with their intra-office repeated sales, worked really well due to the influence on price of similarly appointed massive developments. And drunken greedy banks and appraisers and RE lawyers . . . but I digress.

The crux of it is will They keep doing it forever? Whoever They are. Agents, Aliens, whoever. If not, well, the market has a different floor waiting, lurking, and it’s got a lot to do with cap rates and access to financing.

#64 Ayn Rand Army on 01.05.13 at 1:54 am

Not pretty is right.

Who do you work for Garth? Harper?

My post was all truth last night. Career politicians today all lie and pander.

And that’s the truth!

I’m very disappointed and shocked that you deleted my post since what i said in it was all sound economic solutions.

Please at least allow that part, if you still have it.

Your posted on a topic I closed. Suck it up. — Garth

#65 Otto on 01.05.13 at 2:12 am

#28 Dr A-hole, va joue dans la rue (go play in the street). By the way, I hear there are people who plan to ask you to play baseball. Don’t accept, I can’t live without my you-know-what. Say, didn’t you used to post your retarded remarks under the name ‘John’ until everyone got sick of you? Busted!

#66 Question_4_Garth on 01.05.13 at 2:16 am

Garth, great blog! I agree with most things you say.

Something puzzles me however; you said: “The world will slowly grow out of its debt morass.”

My question: “How will the PIIGS and the US manage to grow out of their debts?”

#67 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.05.13 at 2:20 am

-
On an overall basis, Justin Bieber and the rock stand a better chance of survival than the car, as a strong Arctic outflow would topple it, sending it into oblivion. Cdn. RE?

The demographic effect sure will be interesting to view, ‘tho I understand why some smart young people will avoid RE for years, unless it’s in good shape selling for a dirt cheap price.
*
#186 Shane on 01.04.13 at 9:19 pm — “Just need eight more DELETED comments. — Garth”

‘k. DELETED times eight = Eight DELETEDs. Fair ’nuff?
*
#20 Smoking Man — No rate rise for four years; 2:49 clip Drought? Mississippi down ten feet in six months; Four Busness Gangs that run the US; Vatican Accounts frozen, cash only and no credit cards. Hmmm, I wonder why? Neat way to advertise one’s skills; Slipping Back They never went anywhere; Disaster Relief? Public banking might help; Another Rothschild speaks; Chinese firms doing deals in Cambodia; England’s Ghost Town Coronation Street in real life? Make more moolah, pay less tax.

Nikkei up Yen squashed; US Fed easing, but US schools cut 11K jobs and Beyond Discouraged Three mln. workers; Falling Wages? A Dozen Years and counting; Cdn. Friday links.
*
Monsanto Cucumbers = Genital Baldness Banned in Nova Scotia, Monsanto might be defeated by its own arrogance, and Five Myths pushed by MDs; Annoying Traveler(s) and what to do with them; ):36 clip “And you a**hole, you’re lucky to be here!” Dr. Wayne, is this your real profession? Hot Stuff The curry, not the song; Playing with Fire Sometimes one has to learn the hard way; Gandhi was right Non-violent resistance is best; All State Further to the homeowners receiving US$37.64 on their claim for Hurricane Sandy, see the negative comments against All State; Good Luck to him, but he’ll need more than luck; Dickhead Pic gives a clue to its origins; m$m Sheeple believe their garbage? Keeping Oneself Quiet aka evading surveillance on the ‘net; Ocean Meadow with flowers everywhere; Best Time to steal drugs.

#68 Sam on 01.05.13 at 2:32 am

#10 Dave on 01.04.13 at 10:36 pm
—————————

The Fed’s $85 billion/month is misleading. Yes, the combined QE 3 and 4 technically give the Fed the “ability to buy” up to $85 billion in treasuries each month if needed but if you look at their current balance sheet and compare it to that of a year ago, it has actually stayed pretty much the same. So the Fed’s QE3 and 4 interventions have (at least so far) been almost entirely verbal thus far.

Does this mean that they won’t monetize more debt in the future or that they won’t actually start buying $85 billion/month in treasuries (or come up with QE5, 6 etc… eventually)? Of course all those things could happen.

However, it is important to distinguish between what the Fed says and what the Fed does. If all they do is talk, then there won’t be much currency depreciation but the financial markets may see some modest gains none-the-less.

#69 Debt's Dark Embrace on 01.05.13 at 2:47 am

My property value assessment in Kelowna is down 8% from last year……….

#70 FTP - First Time Poster on 01.05.13 at 3:07 am

Garth – I’ve purchased 3 tickets to TO to meet with you. The EREB was on the news stating that Edmonton’s home prices will rise again this year despite what is going on in Van and TO. They even dusted off the now retired former president of the EREB to calm the waters. I’m picking them up tomorrow and we’ll be there in the evening so they can use their Jedi mind tricks on you.

#71 Jsan on 01.05.13 at 3:14 am

Hey Garth, I liked the photo you showed yesterday of the front page of the Edmonton Sun proudly boasting of rising Edmonton home value assessments. I had to laugh as my dad just received his assessment. It showed that his house which is in an old middle class neighborhood had increased over the previous years assessment. The neighborhood is a very popular area and houses that are listed get snapped up immediately……….or at least they used to. My dads tax assessment shows that his house value increased to just over 400k. The strange thing is, there are two almost identical houses for sale within 2 blocks of his house that have been listed for sale 15 percent below what the city is saying his house is worth. These houses have been listed for months now with no sale. That tells me that the city property value assessments are nothing more than wishful thinking and a convenient way to suck more property taxes from the home owners. Cities are going to be very reluctant to lose the extra revenue they have received thanks to these overinflated housing values.

#72 Mr Buyer on 01.05.13 at 5:09 am

#55 Smoking Man on 01.05.13 at 12:34 am
Mr Buyer I am willing to wager that you are a great reader and writer.
No one is perfect
………………………………………………….
You would be mistaken.

#73 Mr Buyer on 01.05.13 at 5:10 am

#55 Smoking Man on 01.05.13 at 12:34 am
………………………………………………………..
I could probably ghost write your book for you though

#74 live within your means on 01.05.13 at 5:23 am

On a lighter note, I rec’d several jokes from a friend & woke up my hubby cause I couldn’t stop laughing. No offence to French or Americans.

I often wonder who creates these jokes:

Exquisite British Humour -

The train was quite crowded and a U.S. soldier walked the entire length looking for a seat, but the only seat left was taken by a well dressed, middle-aged, French woman’s poodle.

The war-weary soldier asked, ‘Ma’am, may I have that seat?’

The French woman just sniffed and said to no one in particular, ‘Americans are so rude. My little Fifi is using that seat.’

The soldier walked the entire train again, but the only seat left was under that dog.

‘Please, ma’am. May I sit down? I’m very tired ……’

She snorted, ‘Not only are you Americans rude, you are also arrogant!’

This time the soldier didn’t say a word, he just picked up the little dog, tossed it out the train window, and sat down.

The woman shrieked, ‘Someone must defend my honour! ‘This American should be put in his place!’

An English gentleman sitting nearby spoke up:

‘Sir, you Americans seem to have a penchant for doing the wrong thing.

‘You hold the fork in the wrong hand.

‘You drive your cars on the wrong side of the road.

‘And now, sir, you seem to have thrown the wrong bitch out the window.’

…………………

Better than a Flu Shot!

Miss Beatrice,
The church organist,
Was in her eighties
And had never been married. She was admired for her
sweetness and kindness to all.
One afternoon the pastor
came to call on her and she showed him into her quaint
sitting room.
She invited him to have a
seat while she prepared tea…
As he sat facing her old Hammond organ,the young
minister noticed a cut glass
bowl Sitting on top of it.
The bowl was filled with water,
and in the water floated. of all
things,a condom!

When she returned
With tea and scones,they
began to chat. The pastor
tried to stifle his curiosity
About the bowl of water and its
strange floater, but soon it got the better of him and he could no longer resist.
‘Miss Beatrice’, he said,
‘I wonder if you would tell me about this?
Pointing to the bowl.
‘Oh, yes,’ she replied, ‘Isn’t it
wonderful? I was walking
through the park a few
months ago and I found
this little package on the
ground.
The directions said
To place it on the organ,
Keep it wet and that it would prevent the spread of disease.
Do you know I haven’t had the flu all winter.

#75 blase on 01.05.13 at 5:24 am

Garth,

Are you planning to write anything about C-28? I’m curious what your interpretation of it and the intended effects of this legislation are.

#76 willworkforpickles on 01.05.13 at 5:46 am

“The world will slowly grow out of its debt morass”
……the US won’t…..it will only flounder deeper and deeper into an already irreversible debt morass .

#77 willworkforpickles on 01.05.13 at 5:49 am

Get ready for the streets of America to explode into violence by the summer of 2017.

#78 willworkforpickles on 01.05.13 at 6:06 am

Check your brakes before taking the Malahat to Vic…

#79 Dr. WAYNE on 01.05.13 at 9:53 am

#59 espressobob on 01.05.13 at 12:46 am

#39 Not pretty etc. I’m suprised Docter Wayne
=================

That’s D.O.C.T.’O’. R … turn on your spell check.

#80 Mixed Bag on 01.05.13 at 10:24 am

#27 Smoking Man on 01.04.13 at 11:19 pm

It’s was hallarious reading today the bank of Canada mad at banks being to loose with loot.

Ha their policies for the last 30 years since the days of John crow have been to keep wages low by maintaining a surplus of labor using interest rates as the control.

- How does this work? Looks like I need to school myself on this.

The only chart that matters to them now is the trade balance. The game has changed. With our high flying Lonnie they can not and will not spike rates until we have steady surplus…………

- Interesting. Which of the various, sometimes competing, pressures on the interest rate, will win?

#81 Stickler on 01.05.13 at 10:26 am

@ #51 claudius emperor on 01.05.13 at 12:28 am

“BTW Spain is giving citizenship if one buys home over 160 k Euro (220 kCa). Great wheather, great health care. Paradise for retirement (forget about Costa Rica)”

>> Residency, not citizenship.

#82 TurnerNation on 01.05.13 at 10:36 am

That’s not a Kia!

These days, Chrsyler is not about so much
Mom-baseball-apple pies.

“Italian auto maker Fiat SpA F.MI +1.62% formally asked to buy a second tranche of shares in Chrysler Group LLC held by a United Auto Workers health-care trust that is the U.S. auto maker’s second-largest holder after Fiat.

Fiat said the second tranche represents about a 3.3% stake in Chrysler, the same amount as the first tranche. Fiat has the right to buy shares from the Voluntary Employee Beneficiary Association every six months; beginning this month, the health-care trust has a right to request a public offering of its roughly 41% stake in Chrysler. “

#83 SMC on 01.05.13 at 10:46 am

 Harper has renewed the $250 million investment fund that puts cash aside for car companies and their suppliers, part of a five-year plan to help keep the auto manufacturing industry thriving in Canada while GM Canada it will shift production of the Chevrolet Camaro from Oshawa to a plant in Michigan in 2015. Nice move…..way to build our economy, collect from people, give to corporates.

#84 detalumis on 01.05.13 at 11:13 am

#74 nobody’s taxes go up solely because of reassessment, the cities just shuffle the deck chairs on the Titanic and anybody whose house increased by the average stays the same, anybody higher gets dinged, anybody lower gets a break. If all house values rise or fell by even 30 percent equally for every house, the property taxes collected stays the same. There is no “extra revenue”.

#85 Grasshopper on 01.05.13 at 11:22 am

Re: NOT PRETTY.

If the appraised value of a property has declined at the end of it’s mortgage term.

What are the ramifications for the mortgagee upon renewal?

#86 Smoking Man on 01.05.13 at 11:53 am

#80 willworkforpivkles

2017 I’m betting sooner, just as soon as they come for the guns….

It will play out like this bunch of cops will get shot trying to confiscate guns from a hill Billy. A stand off will happen then other hill bills will come out of the forest and a hun battle will happen. All hill Billys will be gunned down. Then all the hill billys from the south will go nuts.

#87 Joe on 01.05.13 at 12:20 pm

Show that demographic chart to the typical uneducated barely passed high school GTA realtor, they will still tell you about how great the market will be in 2013, 2014, 2015 and forever because of low rates, immigration, bla bla bla . I also just saw the stats for the increase of licensed realtors in the GTA these last few years, wow they are screwed. Way too many dumbass realtors and not enough pie for 2013. Get the resume ready for the Timmy’s drive thru!!

#88 claudius emperor on 01.05.13 at 12:30 pm

# 84 Stockler:

Residency that is transformed into citizenship as you stay long enough.

#89 Ogopogo on 01.05.13 at 1:10 pm

#23 skeptical on 01.04.13 at 11:08 pm
In contrast, the S&P 500 (the only US market to watch) rose 4.6% and is now at the highest level since December of 2007.
__________________________________

so, for 5 years, you’ve made nothing in the SP500.
congrats.

The S&P is but one of a number of assets in a diversified portfolio. Do you have a reading issue? — Garth

skeptical, I was once a financial ignoramus like you, but now I fully understand the value of a diversified portfolio. In fact, just yesterday I re-balanced my wife’s TFSA (Garth-approved allocations) to capitalize on the equities gains of the last few days. It’s a thing of wonder. Our portfolios are up in the low double digits for 2012. I’m amazed at how many benighted commenters here and in the Globe & Mail just assume that investors buy and hold forever without ever re-balancing.

No wonder we’re in such a debt mess in this country. skeptical, for your sake and your family’s read some worthy financial advice. Start with Money Road, then the Wealthy Barber, then Millionaire Teacher. These 3 books alone will pull you out of your obvious blockheadedness.

#90 tkid on 01.05.13 at 1:33 pm

#5 hmmm. Just got to keep pushing back the retirement age. it’s already happening. a lot of people between 20-40 are going to work until they die.

My nice, defined benefits plan is running out of money, and here’s me in my forties.

How do I know it is running out of money? They’ve recently changed the early retirement rules – extra penalties if you retire before 65 – so that everyone will get some money in the future.

#91 Nemesis on 01.05.13 at 1:34 pm

…”and Justin Bieber.” – Hon. GT

Ergo, some analysts could be forgiven for pondering ‘end time’ scenarios… ?

#92 Form Man on 01.05.13 at 1:55 pm

#94 Ogopogo

Good post. It is truly curious why so many people reject straightforward common-sense financial advice, and instead follow salespersons peddling myths.

#93 polecat on 01.05.13 at 2:06 pm

Not the Challenger! But if you paint a Confederate flag on it, it will survive for another episode.

#94 polecat on 01.05.13 at 2:17 pm

#88 grasshopper, I’d like to know that too. Bought mine below assessment and it has gone up in 2 years. Not looking at selling for at least 20 years but when renewal comes do we have to pay the difference or will the bank just charge more to renew, although I will have a good chunk paid off and have about 8% of equity in it now. I’m outside Halifax and know we are due to correct here too but I’m only looking at 147000 mortgage.

#95 realtors are in a panic on 01.05.13 at 3:08 pm

The RE market must be tanking real hard as sales have crashed and realtors flood the greaterfool blog screaming and yelling for people to buy. Many realtors face bankruptcy as the housing crash goes from bad to worse. Realtors are financially hungry for money . With sales crashing for about a year now many realtors will lose it all. It’s going to be a nasty 2013 realtors , a NASTY 2013. 2013 ,2014 and 2015 will be the years of the financially poor realtors. Yup its going to be a nasty three years for realtors and those over their heads.

#96 Rainclouds on 01.05.13 at 3:11 pm

@#92 Joe

“typical uneducated barely passed high school”

Am a proud graduate of grade 9 NS edumacation system some 35 yrs ago, However am offended to be lumped in with RE agents:-)

hurt feelings tempered with the 7 digit bank acct……………….no worries. I will be fine:-)

#97 proud canadian immigrant on 01.05.13 at 3:39 pm

@futurologist from http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/12/30/2013/#comment-214744

is this the same India where
“The victim of the assault remains critically ill. It has also emerged that she and her male friend lay naked and covered in blood for nearly an hour at the roadside where they had been dumped before police arrived. A crowd of about 50 people had gathered around them, officials later said, but no one offered any assistance. Police eventually had to fetch sheets from a nearby hotel to cover them.” ?
http://www.smh.com.au/world/police-comments-fuel-indias-rape-fury-20121221-2bqci.html#ixzz2FgFs1NFU

if so, please move there ASAP … or to Russia, along with comrade Depardieu

Garth, sorry, I had to vent

#98 Old Man on 01.05.13 at 3:40 pm

My car is 14 years old with 30K on the dial, and should I buy a new one? Or should I lease something. It is time for me to step up in the world, as this old dog is now costing me money. I have the best insurance in the world for $900 a year with Intact, but my broker has taken the collision factor off; says even a small accident will become a write-off. Oh that is very depressing; any suggestions? This is like a Real Estate deal compared to those that bought into the condo market during the last two years; all becomes a bad investment in the end.

#99 habbit on 01.05.13 at 3:57 pm

#96 thekid What plan do you belong to? My sister retired @ 55 from the feds with the DBP. If she lives past 73 which is likely she would have exhausted her and employers contributions. Then current workers or taxpayers are on the hook. How good is that? Her contribution to society is not any greater than many who have NO plan. Her CPP blended pension is 72K a year. I beleive that is higher than the average family income. See any problem here? To be fair as a single person when she passes her pension benefits are not transferable. Individuals should not be blamed me thinks. What is needed is a government with nuts to completely overhaul the system in an equitable way. That some of these plans are changing the rules in the middle of the game should come as no surprise. Best wishes to you.

#100 Dr. WAYNE on 01.05.13 at 4:39 pm

#98 Form Man on 01.05.13 at 1:55 pm

It is truly curious why so many people reject straightforward common-sense financial advice, and instead follow salespersons peddling myths.

=======================

Frank Zappa – “There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life.”

#101 renters rule on 01.05.13 at 5:00 pm

apologies if someone else has already posted this link:

http://m.publishing.rogers.com/macleans/share/2013-01/06a_biz_housing.html

music.stopped.chairs.none

#102 Canadian Watchdog on 01.05.13 at 5:02 pm

Majority of assets” in metals = gambling, not investing. — Garth

So allocating your money to gamblers is investing?

Scotiabank Expanding Hedge Fund Derivatives Services

RBC Investor Services Launches Global Derivatives Platform

CIBC Bolsters Equity Derivatives Trading Ops

 

I know of no investor who plays derivatives. Straw man. — Garth

#103 Wally Wingnut on 01.05.13 at 5:06 pm

An observation about demographics. Caucasians will be retiring (and dying) in record numbers as time goes by. Asians are having children more than any other race. They don’t like paying evermore taxes to provide social programs, retirement benefits etc.. to support idiots that didn’t think about their futures. As the children of immigrants become larger in numbers as a voting block, say goodbye to boomers retirement and health care benefits. As the baby boom bubble disappears its going to be a different world for retirees. H just started that transition by extending the retirement age for CPP. This hit at the standard of living of future pensioners is just the beginning. Expect a whole lot more changes to come.

Oh, so Asians are immortal? Are you on drugs? — Garth

#104 Old Man on 01.05.13 at 5:08 pm

#109 pinstripe – did know that Bill Gates owns a huge investment in our Canadian railroad system, so there is part of the answer. Yes, a huge amount of oil is being transported by rail in Canada.

#105 TurnerNation on 01.05.13 at 5:14 pm

You could be Lamb’s next door neighbour. Ewe.

http://www.torontolife.com/daily/informer/gimme-shelter/2013/01/04/condomonium-25-stafford-street/

PRICE: $1,654,000

THE PLACE: This two-level penthouse in the new Parc Lofts building faces Stanley Park, where the King West crowd often congregates for baseball games and puppy watching.

BRAGGING RIGHTS: “Toronto’s Condo King” Brad Lamb is not only the developer and real estate agent, he also lives in the building’s only other penthouse.

#106 Bill Gable on 01.05.13 at 5:24 pm

China – Hard landing dead ahead.

Those among us hoping for HAM to save us – read this:
An anti-corruption drive in China has netted suspects that include an executive accused of cavorting with gigolos, a young woman who owns 11 apartments, a provincial official with 47 mistresses and a vice-mayor with ties to a drug gang. Many alleged misdeeds were exposed by internet users – mostly whistleblowers and rogue journalists – and promulgated via unusually freewheeling coverage in state-owned media.

Another, less vaunted government clampdown – this one on dissenting views – leaves little hope for a Chinese people-power renaissance. Over the past week authorities have surreptitiously replaced an outspoken editorial in a liberal newspaper with brazen propaganda, scrubbed an open letter calling for constitutional governance from the internet, and closed down an outspoken Beijing-based magazine for advocating political reform.

Communist party secretary Xi Jinping said corruption could lead to the “end of the party”. His administration has ruthlessly singled out venal officials and is implementing a series of regulations to limit displays of official waste. Yet analysts say that Xi’s anti-graft drive is only skin-deep, and that party leaders will be hard pressed to eradicate corruption while maintaining their perennially hard line on dissent.”.

http://tinyurl.com/aw6o3x8

#107 Nukester99 on 01.05.13 at 5:26 pm

Maclain’s link for the coming housing crisis: Crash and Burn

http://m.publishing.rogers.com/macleans/share/2013-01/06a_biz_housing.html

#108 Andrew on 01.05.13 at 5:26 pm

DA?

We are missing your superfluous realtor SalesSpeak prognostications, off for the weekend perhaps?

#109 Derek R on 01.05.13 at 5:28 pm

#109 pinstripe on 01.05.13 at 4:14 pm asked:
Why are Gates and Buffet so much against building pipelines for shipping oil and yet are very supportive in shipping this same oil by rail?

No mystery. They’ve both made big investments in rail companies.

#110 Old Man on 01.05.13 at 5:32 pm

#109 pinstripe – just a memo as Bill Gates has a huge investment with the CNR which has a transportation monopoly to Kitimat, BC. Kitimat is the most important deepsea port in all of North America to the East, and does not freeze over. Untold $billions are being spent on this port, and then we have the Tar Sands project. Do some homework as there are secondary lines of rail that connect from there via Edmonton going directly to Kitimat for shipments to Asia. Need I say more.

#111 Andrea Sargeant on 01.05.13 at 5:37 pm

Will sell home upon return to Canada.
1. blended mortgage at 2.9% for 5 years (from 3.8%)
2. continuing to pay double on a biweekly schedule
3. lease covers mortgage, utilities and maintenance
4. moved $10,000 out of bonds
5. backpacking around the world continues
6. have ordered your book

#112 White Rock Mom on 01.05.13 at 5:58 pm

George Athanassakos was one of my finance professors in university. He is brilliant and his insights deserve tremendous respect.

The under 40 crowd face demographic hurdles in Canada that make living in the US very attractive. I believe that as the US real estate market improves over next few years their dollar will appreciate too.

#113 45north on 01.05.13 at 6:37 pm

pinstripe: Why are Gates and Buffet so much against building pipelines for shipping oil and yet are very supportive in shipping this same oil by rail?

don’t know about Gates but Buffet owns Burlington Northern:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/obama-puppetmaster-warren-buffett-biggest-winner-keystone-pipeline-rejection

#114 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 01.05.13 at 6:54 pm

Hellooooo DON? Have you read #108 habbit?
The last few lines are particularly interesting….
“What is needed is a government with nuts to completely overhaul the system in an equitable way. That some of these plans are changing the rules in the middle of the game should come as no surprise….”

It ain’t just me sayin’ this :)

#115 Devore on 01.05.13 at 6:57 pm

#12 DaleFromCalgary

Gold up 7% in 2012. Term deposits paying negative real interest

Actually, for Canadian investors gold returned a hair over 2% in 2012. I posted numbers, but Bandit ate it from the moderation que this morning.

When you buy gold, you’re buying an instrument with built-in currency risk. Maybe if in 2013 the loonie loses ground to USD you’ll be able to dance a jig at the end of the year.

#116 Hoof-Hearted on 01.05.13 at 7:15 pm

#109 pinstripe on 01.05.13 at 4:14 pm

Why are Gates and Buffet so much against building pipelines for shipping oil and yet are very supportive in shipping this same oil by rail?

=================================

How do you think Rockefeller got rich?

Not by finding oil…but the monopolizing the “post crude” infrastructure.

Why do you think we are in the Middle East…? to pump dump… pump dump..pump dump (REPEAT)Oil stock.

Side Anecdote: Rockefellers wanted Prohibition….so as to knock out possible alternate fuel competition.

#117 Hoof-Hearted on 01.05.13 at 7:17 pm

PMS err PMs:

Listened to a guy on the radio…his strategy is buy low sell high…..then buy low again… sell high again…. …milk the micro fluctuations. …..not the long term .

#118 realtors are in a panic on 01.05.13 at 7:42 pm

Garth keep spreading the truth and blog dogs you to as well . I noticed on a stock site someone reported Torontos crashing sales as a non related topic. Keep it up everyone and together the truth which those evil and hungry for money realtors don’t want people to know..Canada housing bubble is crashing HARD! And every realtor knows it.

#119 realtors are in a panic on 01.05.13 at 7:43 pm

http://m.publishing.rogers.com/macleans/share/2013-01/06a_biz_housing.html

#120 claudius emperor on 01.05.13 at 8:18 pm

# 106: Don’t underestimate Russia. And don’t bet against it. Nobody ever won against it.

They are more capitalists than us. Forget about the communism tales.
Drinking is their problem as apparently it is becoming ours as well. Seen lately LCBOs?
Always full with people despite the most ridiculous prices I have ever seen.

Russia could be a great place to invest, they are not selling their resource base to the Chinese as we do.
There are some ETFs and companies there (traded on NYSE as well) that have P/E ratio of 4-5… Internationally selling companies that are a screaming buy…

#121 Bob Copeland on 01.05.13 at 8:25 pm

http://www.thedailysheeple.com/the-middle-class-in-america-is-being-wiped-out-here-are-60-facts-that-prove-it_012013

When do we start betting against America?

Crap article from the author of The Economic Collapse blog. — Garth

#122 jess on 01.05.13 at 8:42 pm

..”America’s six largest banks – Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley – now have a combined 14,420 subsidiaries, making them so big as to be effectively beyond regulation. A recent study by the Kansas City Fed found that it would take 70,000 examiners to inspect such trillion-dollar banks with the same level of attention normally given to a community bank. “The complexity is so overwhelming that no regulator can follow it well enough to regulate the way we need to,” says Sen. Brown, who is drafting a bill to break up the megabanks.”

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/secret-and-lies-of-the-bailout-20130104#ixzz2H9LMlqZy
===================

Wegelin bank – a “fraud within a fraud” i wonder what it costs to get one’s name of the list
-http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/04/swiss-bank-wegelin-close-tax-evasion

Wegelin pleaded guilty in court to helping wealthy helping Americans evade tax,handed over information on more than 4,450 accounts.

#123 Marko Juras on 01.05.13 at 8:43 pm

“With sales crashing for about a year now many realtors will lose it all. It’s going to be a nasty 2013 realtors , a NASTY 2013. 2013 ,2014 and 2015 will be the years of the financially poor realtors. Yup its going to be a nasty three years for realtors and those over their heads.”

There is massive opportunity in real estate right now and going forward. I increased my sales from 14.5 million (2011) to 21.5 million (2012) and aiming for 30+ million this year. Sales volume was down 5% in Victoria.

A lot of realtors are not willing to adapt and offer the consumer what they want. I am one of the few realtors in Victoria, BC offering Mere Postings, Cash Back to Buyers, discount full service commissions, etc.

In fact I find the downturn has helped my business as sellers are looking to preserve equity in this tough market and as well all know commissions come straight out of your home equity.

Marko – REALTOR® & Associate Broker, Fair Realty

Where should I send the bill, Marko the Magnificent? Never do that again, dude. — Garth

#124 Ogopogo on 01.05.13 at 8:52 pm

#103 skeptical on 01.05.13 at 2:46 pm
#95 Ogopogo on 01.05.13 at 1:10 pm

thanks for the insults, but i’ve done quite well holding the majourity of my assets in physical gold and silver, thank you.

14% pa compounded for 8 consecutive years with Gold.. still in it, ride ain’t over yet.
19% pa compounded for 7 consecutive years with Silver, until last summer when i sold.

before that, i was short a bunch US stocks when a couple of planes hit the twin towers. some might call that luck. meh. whatever.

the Wealthy Barber is a great book…

i prefer “reminiscences of a stock operator” by lefevre.

‘Majority of assets” in metals = gambling, not investing. — Garth

skeptical, no offense was meant. Notice that I also called myself a former “financial ignoramus”. Also, “blockheadedness” wasn’t meant as an insult, more of a state of mind (as opposed to calling you a “blockhead”). Now that we’ve cleared that, your being a metalhead explains your phobia of the market and the dreaded “fiat money”. As Garth and others have pointed out though, your shiny rocks still need to be turned into paper to be monetized in our current financial system. Truth be told though, in the post-apocalyptic scenario you probably envision as a metalhead your rocks will be worth nothing next to a sack of flour or a gallon of clean water.

Just sayin’…

#125 Old Man on 01.05.13 at 8:54 pm

#99 Nemesis – saw you mentioned the name Justin Bieber, and know his mother well, and today this young kid is worth about $115 million and growing, but detect that others from Hollywood have stepped in to do him well for a control over his money. My red flag has gone up the pole; don’t like his relationship with the girlfriend or his handlers; his wildest in life; or the fact that one day it will all come to an end. I just might call his mother to step in before it becomes too late for someone to take control over the money assets, as he is being hooped.

#126 Ogopogo on 01.05.13 at 8:55 pm

#100 Form Man on 01.05.13 at 1:55 pm
#94 Ogopogo

Good post. It is truly curious why so many people reject straightforward common-sense financial advice, and instead follow salespersons peddling myths.

After 15+ years of seeing my investments floundering in high-fee mutual funds I finally saw the light. It wasn’t easy, that’s for sure. There’s a whole industry out there counting on the naivete of the masses. You’re right: “peddling myths” is exactly what these con men do.

#127 pete on 01.05.13 at 9:04 pm

Is it me or are realtors uneducated people who’s value shouldn’t exceed $10 an hour. Let’s face it the majority of realtors are high school drop outs. Besides that what value do they offer other then hitting a sign into the lawn and placing it on mls? That to me constitutes $40-50 dollars of services. It’s nice to see people wake up and do it themselves with the other options . In time realtors will become as useless as the horse and buggy. Imo they are already useless. LOL realtors are in a panic as they should be.

#128 M on 01.05.13 at 9:05 pm

Fed prints 85 bil a month.
Do you think we won’t continue printing ? :)
Do you see 1Cad = 5 US ever ?
I thought so :)
Gold higher than 2000 in Sept 2013,silver over 50.
Because of printing.
Ditto food and oil (over 100 a barrel).

Housing and bonds will do what you say.

Do you have any more babes to patch to your excellent articles ? They were fun despite being politically “incorrect”…which actually make them more fun actually :)

Cheers

#129 Guy1 on 01.05.13 at 9:07 pm

Why has there suddenly been a dramatic reduction in the number of properties for sale on mls? It was at well over 200,000 before xmas, and now we’re at: 177,719. Could you please explain as I don’t quite understand… Thank-you.

#130 Ronaldo on 01.05.13 at 9:47 pm

#109 – pinstripe -

”Why are Gates and Buffet so much against building pipelines for shipping oil and yet are very supportive in shipping this same oil by rail?”

May have something to do with this:

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/01/03/buffett-and-icahn-reaping-tank-car-boom-from-shale-oil/

#131 habbit on 01.05.13 at 9:57 pm

#125 Mrfartz Let us hope the changes are voluntary and accepted . If not the vested interests will have a problem. Let them eat cake if you will….

#132 Ronaldo on 01.05.13 at 10:22 pm

#138 Ogopogo -

”You’re right: “peddling myths” is exactly what these con men do.”

Like the ”Freedom 55”. Remember?

#133 dangeresque2 on 01.05.13 at 10:37 pm

“fussed with her equipment in my office” … lol!

Not that kind of reporter. — Garth

#134 claudius emperor on 01.05.13 at 10:37 pm

An excellent lecture by Peter Schiff

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9aUpO-aLLE

The minutes after 15-20 give an excellent overview on the US housing bubble.

Makes you wonder how much worse we are in our mother of all housing bubbles.

#135 Triplenet on 01.05.13 at 10:40 pm

#139 Pete
After a full frontal lobotomy you are having difficulty articulating your point.
Do you know where you live?

#136 Smoking Man on 01.05.13 at 10:59 pm

None of you Bubble Heads understand the herd, including Gartho. Logic reason don’t matter. Status, pride, and a feeling of superior human over basement dwellers is all that counts. Look at my buddy LaughingCon. His entire identy and status is all in wishing for a crash…. Vindication.. Sadly not going to happen in 2013…….

Just saying….. Smoking Man over and out from Woodbine. Yes taking a cab home to my 800 sqft bungalow in long Branch……

I never drink and drive

#137 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.05.13 at 11:07 pm

Freedom 55 ?

…….only applies to the snake oil salesmen and Civil Servants.

For the rest ?…..it is ” Fiscally Indentured Servitude Cradle -to- Grave and Beyond “.

#138 DA why don't you mention all the foreclosures in Kelowna too! on 01.05.13 at 11:24 pm

DA here is the MacLean’s cover story for January, 2013 … “Inside the Great Real Estate of 2013″

http://m.publishing.rogers.com/macleans/share/2013-01/06a_biz_housing.html

Very scary stuff DA… have you sold your house in Kelowna yet, better get on it!

#139 Tequila Time on 01.05.13 at 11:30 pm

Actually SmokingMan, quite the contrary – we do watch the herd. Herd mentality affects sentiment pricing on the way up AND down in asset bubbles.

Clearly real estate is leveling off in mosr areas of Canada and Toronto will be next. There are no fundamentals which support increasing prices.

Confident is good. Cocky loses money. Which side are you on?

#140 Military Wife on 01.05.13 at 11:42 pm

We moved to the Vancouver suburbs in August, 2010, for my husband’s job in the military. We aren’t multi-millionaires, so we couldn’t afford to buy a house in the city. We ended up buying a fixer-upper in Coquitlam and have about $560K into it. After two years of not being able to find work there, I moved to Calgary for a full-time position. The house is on the market, and we are looking at buying a spec house by Greenboro Homes (which is under creditor protection) in Chestermere. Should we keep the house in B.C. and rent it out for a year or two? Or sell it at a loss now? Is now a good time to buy in Chestermere? Or are prices just going to keep dropping in Calgary? Would we be crazy to put a downpayment on the spec house when Greenboro is under creditor protection? Help!!! (BTW, Port Moody is across the street from our house and it is a very nice place with lots of hiking trails, etc.)

#141 DON on 01.05.13 at 11:47 pm

@#135 Marko Juras on 01.05.13 at 8:43 pm

Nice to hear about your commission structure….but prices are not affordable in Victoria. I would never buy an overpriced old or shoddy new house on a postage stamp. In addition, this is an expansive retirement community, most can retire for cheaper in the smaller once boom towns. The weather is damp, windy not good for old bones etc.

And you can buy a quarter of a condo here for 198K – time share for the bare minimum. That development is now renting out the units like a hotel.

All the best to you though, we’ve all got to eat.

#142 DON on 01.06.13 at 12:15 am

Smoking Man

While I see something with your dyslexia theory as Tequila Time states we are watching the herd and there is now only one way for the herd to react.. and that’s with a sense of anxiousness and fear. Ever heard of the tipping point and sooner or later things have to change, they always do or the last big bubble in the 80′s would still be with us today.

Do you still have skin in the TO market, why else would you defy the logic that has already happened world wide?

#143 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.06.13 at 12:16 am

-
#109 pinstripe (and others) — Good question, as they are not dummies. So, CP – A little high, CN – Better, but still in the stratosphere, RailAmerica – Pretty good and Top Ten 2013 picks. Methinx Messrs. Buffett and Gates have a vested interest somewhere in there!
*
Thought For The Day: “The poor have sometimes objected to being governed badly; the rich have always objected to being governed at all.” — G. K. Chesterton, 1908 (wrh.com).
*
The BdB Group leads the pack again; Abolish the IRS Actually, can income tax completely and use a HST for the country; North Korea “The lure of the familiar. North Korea had a busy relationship with communist East Germany.”; Fiscal Cliff Stuff “They are scared. That’s why they are grabbing the guns.”; wrh.com; 3:32 clip The economy worships our enslavement (‘cuz we keep it going); Risky Trades Taxpayers on the hook; The Ponzi States of America “The Ponzi scheme goes all the way back to 1913.” wrh.com; Jobs Chart Not as scary as The Exorcist, but still not great; Millionaire Banker “Bankers get special treatment.” wrh.com; Spain’s Economy Increasing suicides are not painless, and UK middle class 65% tax rate; Women going for oil rig jobs; Newbies to RE Tough time finding the deposit; NUTS Will be an interesting spring in the UK.
*
Reality Check; Ginger (No Hair) Baker, drummer for the rock super-group Cream in the ’60s; NDEs As said before, there are no such things as NDEs, simply adventures in the other worlds. Life always continues; WiFi Routers Computer jargon; Monsanto US farmer uprising against them, Screwing Monsanto Movie title? Plus Avoiding Food Brands with GMOs; DoD and Microsoft With Windows 8 running their PC’s, the west is doomed; AIDS – HIV Noddin’ Yahoo has more to be concerned with at home than a power station in Iran; Guns are Not The Problem, gangs and drugs (both legit and illegal) are. Legalize illegal drugs then pushers and gangs are left with nothing; Glow In The Dark Highways Sounds better than condoms; War on Terror (by design) is a constant now, and Syria The US is waging a proxy war with Russia by using Syria as a convenient excuse; 3:07 clip Prof. says US Constitution should be scrapped; DHS Loan-A-Drone Program for regular police forces; Bisphenol (BPA) damages human fertility; Nicolas Sarkozy ordered Chavez’s murder; Gun Hypocrisy See headline; Russia New silent sub. China also has a cloaking device for their nuke subs. (apparently); Buck. Palace Job opening. BdB members are welcome to apply; Breaking In is harder than breaking up, esp. if a cat is involved; The BBC has a new moniker which is slightly different; Tuna A million pounds for one?

#144 Pablo Escobar on 01.06.13 at 12:21 am

I was once a Drug Lord but found BC Real Estate far more lucrative, so became a realtor.

So did my associates O. Bin Laden ….S. Hussein and M .Qaddafi.

Please notice we all had moustaches…. large entourages.

You can too!.

Please sign up for our future seminars

#145 Smoking Man on 01.06.13 at 12:21 am

DELETED

#146 Tony on 01.06.13 at 12:22 am

Re: #153 Military Wife on 01.05.13 at 11:42 pm

Sell the house in B.C. at a loss and rent in Calgary. Property prices in Calgary will get walloped in 2013 as oil falls back to the 60 dollars U.S. a barrel area. As jobs evaporate in Calgary rents will fall making you very happy.

#147 Edmonton to Halifax on 01.06.13 at 12:24 am

I have to agree with the sentiment that realtors are becoming increasingly unnecessary. They are starting to lose their grip on the exclusive marketing advantages they use to offer. On top of this, the younger and more tech savvy generation will be more willing to try alternative methods for buying and selling homes. Buying and selling for yourself on the internet is the new reality. And don’t even tell me that it’s the wisdom and experience of realtors that make them such a crucial factor in real estate transactions. The fact that the difference between “would you like fries with that?” and “would you like a garage with that?” is a three week course says a lot about the profession. They are salespeople, not housing experts. Put in your due diligence, consult a lawyer and educate yourself. Moving forward, having a realtor will be seen as more of a luxury than a necessity and the effective realtors that remain will compete for less and less cash. Guys like Marko “massive opportunity” Juras will indeed increase their volumes but, in the process, they will dramatically reduce the cash per/unit flowing into brokerages. The inevitable outcome will be contraction and major attrition from the profession. I propose a realtor addition of “Survivor.” It could start with two dozen young realtors in Vancouver and the winner would be the one who could pay their BMW lease the longest. I’d watch it.

#148 Edmonton to Halifax on 01.06.13 at 12:26 am

LOL “realtor edition,” not “addition.” You can thank Nova Scotia’s beer for that!!

#149 AK on 01.06.13 at 12:30 am

#133 Bob Copeland on 01.05.13 at 8:25 pm

“When do we start betting against America?”

Knock yourself out, Dude…

#150 Ayn Rand Army on 01.06.13 at 12:32 am

#83 Just sayin’ on 01.03.13 at 1:00 am

With respect to dawgs like Hangfire & The American, (when it comes to the extravagant pay of government workers), these guys have a serious point. However, their choice of language isn’t always the best and distracts from their message.

It is understandably infuriating to private-sector workers to have to subsidize the overly generous pay & benefits paid to government workers.

But what to do?

No one wants to lose government services, well, maybe we could do without our unelected senators.

The answer is to mandate a 20% salary & benefit reduction to all government workers with an exclusion for those earning the very least.

The message would be simple: if you don’t want to keep your government job at 80%, you are free to go look for a better one elsewhere.

If Canada continues on its present course of allowing ourselves to be hijacked by unionized nurses, teachers, civil service, cops, etc, with their insatiable and never-ending demands, we are on our way to becoming another Greece.

How many unionized nurses, teachers, civil service, cops, etc, would quit under these -20% conditions?

Not too many is my bet — albeit there would be much weeping and wailing and nashing of teeth.

But fair is fair. We cannot continue to indebt our children for the sake of a privileged few.
—-
Good post. I would just add that privatizing as much of the public sector as possible would not only address the issue of wages and unions but would also greatly improve the quality of the services due to competition among different businesses offering services that are currently public, such as education and health care for example….

It’s the job of a business to find innovations, savings, efficiency and customer satisfaction in order to survive and profit. This is why profits are good. It’s the reward for a job well done that people are willing to pay for because they value it over other things they can choose from.

Governments just boondoggle everything since politicians are just pandering liars who know nothing but how to pander and lie.

The swaggering and misguided bravado of the anonymous ankle-biting conservative. — Garth

#151 dosouth on 01.06.13 at 12:36 am

#154 DON – you can talk to Marko directly at his blog if you would like -

http://househuntvictoria.blogspot.ca/

#152 coastal on 01.06.13 at 12:37 am

Where should I send the bill, Marko the Magnificent? Never do that again, dude. — Garth

Surprised you didn’t DELETE that post Garth, since many have been deleted for far less, especially since this guy trashes you regularly on the Victoria house blog. The true sign of a classless real estate agent you would ever want to do business with, uses you, then abuses you.

#153 Old Man on 01.06.13 at 1:11 am

#159 Tony – you have made a good point about the spot price of oil, as the entire world is in a deflationary type of depression, whereby, the demand for oil and the products thereof have no demand now. Alberta is going down, and Real Estate values will follow soon.

#154 Marko Juras on 01.06.13 at 1:23 am

#163 “I propose a realtor addition of “Survivor.””

That would be an interesting show. In Victoria last year at this time we were at 1305 REALTORS® and now we are down to 1240 REALTORS®. I predict 1150 next year and maybe below a 1,000 within 3 years.

#155 periwinkles on 01.06.13 at 1:28 am

Real Estate bubble white mans’ doing fuelled by the Yellow Crane from abroad. Did The First Nations ever rape the land so hard? Brothers & sisters long upon this ancient shield embrace your spiritual bond. Know the wisdom of mother of nature – who raises and returns us all in the ashes.

#156 An Cat dubh on 01.06.13 at 2:09 am

global tv was trying to spin the story about real estate dropping values in Vancouver. You can’t polish a turd Global. The assesments in Vernon , B.C., are for the most part lower by around 5%. But you can get the so called market rate for less. Global must be getting desparate, they had a story on some Khardashian woman. I switched channels before it came on.

#157 jay on 01.06.13 at 2:25 am

This may be a surprise for readers of this blog: never in history so many houses sitting idle in Vancouver and there are NO buyers. For example, in Vancouver Point Grey area (top 1% household income?), a few months ago, 100 listings for SFH in $1.5-9 millions range, median price $2.6 million. Now the listing is down to about 50, and NO ONE is looking at those houses. Even the price drop 50%, say, $1.3 million, there may be still no buyers as very few household income can support that high price.
Crash started in Vancouver West.

#158 Keith in Calgary on 01.06.13 at 2:27 am

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12529520&PidKey=734213837

A couple of weeks ago I posted about this house on the street where I live in Calgary that had been thru a couple of realtors over the last few months, initially starting out priced at $1.05MM then $999K…….$969K…….$949K…..well, today, it is now suddenly down to $929K…….but it has the “carriage house” (that’s cowboy speak for a garage attic with a bed and bath) that supposedly can be rented for $930 a month. I wonder how they’ll get that kind of rent, when you can get a full sized one bedroom high rise downtown for less.

I love watching the greater fools get creamed.

#159 new canadian on 01.06.13 at 2:46 am

#4 LuckyRenter
“collective hesitation” :) These guys will do screenwriting jobs with real estate experience

#160 An Observer on 01.06.13 at 2:59 am

Here is the truth about our “moderate” price drop and how it compares to our neighbours down south

http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/2013/01/05/moderate-price-drop/

#161 new canadian on 01.06.13 at 3:14 am

#107 Old Man
My insurance is $700 a year and a stupid friend who have been in Canada longer than I am is paying $700 a month. Collusion is not necessary if you are a good driver. Drop it and save a lot.
Also like most Canadian sectors (telecom, cable etc.) car insurance is a cartel and running scam. They will insure you at $2 million liability and some even won’t let you adjust it. Provincial minimums are like $200K. In US, minimums are like $30-$50K. Then Canadian scammers are pushing you 40x of what most US drivers pick.

#162 the dude on 01.06.13 at 4:01 am

Hey Garth. With the new CHMC rules not insuring over a mil would that affect the self directed mortage even if I had 80% equity in the home?

#163 Westcdn on 01.06.13 at 5:03 am

The comments on Bill Gates and Warren Buffet railroad ownership caught my attention and triggered a memory. There was an announced merge between CN and Burlington Northern in 1999 that was rejected by the US government. I went and found his link http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BNSF_Railway

CN just became interesting as a possible investment for me.

#164 Westcdn on 01.06.13 at 5:35 am

Addendum to my previous post,
I should have also mentioned what are Quebec and Ontario going to do when Alberta can no longer afford equalization payments. It appears Harper is aware. I am a little slow this time of the morning.

#165 Fact Checker on 01.06.13 at 8:42 am

According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University:

“Since 2000, in the United States, the stock market has lost – depending on how one measures it – up to $2 trillion for investors (compared to returns had they left their funds in cash or treasury bills)…while shareholders have lost, managers have earned more than a half-trillion dollars for themselves.”

“…there is a problem with academic economists, quantitative modelers, and policy wonks. The reason why economic models do not fit reality is that economists have no disincentive, and are never penalized for their errors…predictions in socioeconomic domains do not work, but predictors are rarely harmed by their forecasts.”

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/improving-managers–incentives-by-nassimnicholastaleb#CK6uurboXB8vjTjA.99

#166 G on 01.06.13 at 8:47 am

@Military W:

Oh sure, now is a great time to buy additional real estate. And don’t sell the house in Coquitlam that you are moving out of because real estate always goes up. Clearly, I am being sarcastic. Reading the personal anecdotes on this blog, I am shocked at how frequently peop e say they buy real estate because they moved for a job. Frequently, people don’t sell the old house they are moving out of. Eventually, you are going to end up with a collection of houses across the country. Is renting all that bad? If you are moving to a new city, rent somewhere until you get to know the place and the area you want to live in long term. Certainly don’t buy a depreciating asset near the peak of the market and certainly don’t hold on to two depreciating assets when at most you only need one.

#167 Neil on 01.06.13 at 8:53 am

Garth, your comments on Jeff Rubin’s book “The End of Growth” please.

Quite inferior to his first. — Garth

#168 Herb on 01.06.13 at 9:30 am

#153 Military Wife,

I second Tony’s at #159.

For a start, do NOT buy that spec house in Calgary because you would only be riding the real estate market down. As to your house in Vancouver, unless you are going to keep it for many years and move back there eventually, sell it and take a loss right now rather than a larger loss later.

You and your husband should do some earnest family planning. How many years does he have to retirement, where and how often are you likely to be posted until then, and where do you want to wind up in retirement? The answers have a bearing on the RE decisions you face now.

Best wishes from a retired military man.

#169 Herb on 01.06.13 at 9:40 am

#149 Smoking Man,

“Status, pride, and a feeling of superior human [sic] over basement dwellers is all that counts.”

Isn’t cultivating those the whole point of your Gong Show on Greater Fool?

#170 Herb on 01.06.13 at 9:43 am

#141 Guy1,

expired listings, follwed by hanging on for the spring market.

#171 Herb on 01.06.13 at 9:54 am

#137 Old Man,

Justin Bieber did not create himself. The Entertainment Industry that made him will have its costs – and cut. Good luck finding non-greedy handlers, advisers and lawyers in that piranha pool!

#172 Eaglebay - Parksville on 01.06.13 at 11:17 am

#159 Tony on 01.06.13 at 12:22 am

“Property prices in Calgary will get walloped in 2013 as oil falls back to the 60 dollars U.S. a barrel area.”
___________________
Nobody will sell oil below production costs.
Dream on.

#173 coastal on 01.06.13 at 11:33 am

“#163 “I propose a realtor addition of “Survivor.””

That would be an interesting show. ”

All the requirements for reality TV would be there : greed, lying, deception, arrogance, and all the sleaze you need to attract the sheep (AKA losers) in the wonderful world of real estate as the market crashes.

#174 The Man From Nantucket on 01.06.13 at 11:38 am

#128 Hoof-Hearted on 01.05.13 at 7:17 pm
PMS err PMs:

Listened to a guy on the radio…his strategy is buy low sell high…..then buy low again… sell high again…. …milk the micro fluctuations. …..not the long term

I know it’s not your theory, but did the guy say explain a way where this won’t this kill you on commissions, trading fees, and small-order markups?

#175 Ronaldo on 01.06.13 at 11:43 am

#166 Marko Juras – 1240 realtors competing for 290 sales in December. Must be a lot of starving realtors or is it a hobby for some of them?

#176 Hoof - Hearted on 01.06.13 at 12:04 pm

HAARP, Chem Trails and Al Gore can manipulate Spring..give or take 6 months , to buy more time if you wish

#177 JimH on 01.06.13 at 12:04 pm

#8 Michael F on 01.04.13 at 10:31 pm

“My long term view of the stockmarket is becoming more negative day by day. Maybe I read too many ZeroHedge articles.”
……………………………………………………………………………
Tyler at ZeroHedge provides a useful service. Unfortunately however, his viewpoint and outlook are distorted by a confused misunderstanding of the current monetary system; or rather of the monetary system in its current manifestation.
Like many others (Ron Paul, many bloggers & most of the PMetalheads for a start), Tyler seems to believe that simply cranking up the presses will soon lead to solvency issues, runaway inflation, followed by deep and inevitable depression. Such an outlook tends to dampen enthusiasm…
What is missed is the simple fact the USA is a currency producer, and will remain so as long as the US greenback is the reserve currency. This makes an enormous difference.
As long as the USA remains in this fortunate position (and it will remain so for at least the immediate future), it can NEVER experience a insolvency, which is the same thing as ‘running out of money’.
You and I and Canada can indeed run out of money, but as long as the USA remains as the producer of the world’s reserve currency, it cannot.
The USA (from a strictly monetary policy standpoint) only (sic!) has to worry about unemployment, inflation and deflation.
The Federal Reserve has so far in my opinion been remarkably successful. Unemployment is slipping, and there is no sign of runaway inflation that I can see, and the US economy is expanding.
I enjoy reading ZeroHedge, but Tyler’s bias clouds his outlook and has resulted in numerous missed opportunities.
Different viewpoints and prognostications are interesting and fun, but price is the only thing that pays! ‘Minyanville’, ‘Seeking Alpha’, the ‘Pragmatic Capitalist’ and even this blog all give exposure to a broader and better range of ideas!
Good luck!

#178 Stoopid Idiot on 01.06.13 at 12:40 pm

#185 Eaglebay-Parksville

#159 Tony on 01.06.13 at 12:22 am
“Property prices in Calgary will get walloped in 2013 as oil falls back to the 60 dollars U.S. a barrel area.”
___________________
Nobody will sell oil below production costs.
Dream on.
Two Words

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demand_destruction

#179 NoOneOfConsequence on 01.06.13 at 1:01 pm

Boy…read a couple websites and people become experts on monetary theory, the economic outlook, and the effects of endless printing on the value of commodities.
It’s amazing the amount of confidence and arrogance displayed by people who have read a couple of 300 word factoids.
Give me a break…no one here, maybe with the exception of the author of this blog, is qualified to make sweeping statements about monetary theory.
You guys don’t know sh*t.

#180 Canadian Watchdog on 01.06.13 at 1:09 pm

#190 JimH

As long as the USA remains in this fortunate position (and it will remain so for at least the immediate future), it can NEVER experience a insolvency, which is the same thing as ‘running out of money’.

You have absolutely no clue what you’re talking about. The U.S. has defaulted on debts before. Chart

For all the hard-headed Pollyannas: inflation crises and defaults are part of currency cycles. It has nothing to do with humans being smarter or having more technology to save the world. It’s about confidence, greed and will power. That is all money is!

The US will default on no federal debt. Period. — Garth

#181 Sacola FNC on 01.06.13 at 1:18 pm

#190 JIM H: US

The U.S. can experience insolvency when the world turns agains the Greenback, which, in my opinion, is the most overvalued currency in the world. The world can also stop lending money to the states, or demand am much bigger premium for lending. Both could very easily force the U.S. into insolvency.

I believe the Greenback will lose its reserve currency status within the next decade for a basket of currencies.

I wold avoid the U.S. currency at all costs except for investing in companies that conduct the majority of business outside of the U.S.

Neither of those scenarios will happen in this lifetime. An irrational, groundless fear. — Garth

#182 Smoking Man on 01.06.13 at 1:23 pm

#155 DON on 01.06.13 at 12:15 am

Of Course I have skin in the game, a tiny shit bungalow in long branch……… the re market could drop 50% its only about a months worth of gross income to me..
if you call that skin……

I am truly amazed at how wishfull bias controls peoples view of the markets, weather bull or bear…….

I naturly can detach myself from wishes a look at the facts jack………………..

Hence 4 years on here with almost perfect predictions .

Most bubble heads on here give too much weight to fundamentals, making false assumptions on peoples incomes, motives, and fears.

It happen in the usa so it will happen here.

Ridiculousness way to look at things……

#183 Smoking Man on 01.06.13 at 1:35 pm

Don

My worst bet last year was thinking Israel was going to blow Iran to smithereens, So went long on oil futures, lost a bit on a small notional…. My dyslexic vision kicked in and deduced it’s a smoke screen to take the eyes off of what is going down in that country re land….

Now my apple short, samsung long…….call in sept….was amazing……..

no wishfull bias…Just the facts jack……..

#184 robert on 01.06.13 at 1:47 pm

I am shocked that so many homeowners expect that the spring market will improve. It will be interesting to see the listing prices of homes re-listed from last year. I expect many will raise their initial listing price hoping to find one of those greater fools willing to step up and commit. I suspect that the race to the bottom has already started and with NO BUYERS in sight the actual panic to sell will begin in earnest by June. The good news if you want to sell your house today its possible if you are prepared to price it accordingly. In time this will not be the case i suspect as the full effect of the boomers is felt.

#185 Smoking Man on 01.06.13 at 1:51 pm

Don check this out………

We are told to believe a housing rebound is in play in the usa. its been reported since oct,

when we look at what the herd has been Googling it aint mortgages

but the fact that msm has been pushing sunshine for tree months streight look at what is finaly taking hold this year…the herd is looking….

http://www.google.ca/trends/explore#q=mortgage&geo=US&cmpt=q

power of the machine, even though millions of inventory is kept of the market by banks….

This is how I think, I am not schooled, that why I’m special…….

SM is really Super Man

#186 wes coast on 01.06.13 at 1:55 pm

Of note: Saw a property assessment for the Metrotown / Burnaby BC area. July 2011 to July 2012 assessed value down 13% from 270K to 234K. 36K loss in one year. And another 7 months has passed since then.

#187 DON on 01.06.13 at 1:56 pm

@#195 Smoking Man on 01.06.13 at 1:23 pm

“Hence 4 years on here with almost perfect predictions ”

Forgive me…but I am not fully aware of your predictions, but I am aware of Garth’s predictions which are starting to gain traction and I saw this back in 2005 when touring a retirement community. Yes the herd can defy logic on the way up, but not on the way down. Of course their will be more greater fools that is highly expected – Monkey see, Monkey do.

But the M$M have already started the reporting on the troubles, now is the time for others (so called experts) to jump on the crash bandwagon even though a couple of months ago – most still denied a bubble.

Markets, economies and heightened level of debts are now the problem. My question to you is someone who is supposedly experienced, fails to look at the past.

What I am hearing from co-workers is that they are over extended and will not survive the smallest correction.

Good luck! And I no longer read all your posts – your are no longer backing up your posts with data other than your opinion. You said TO would not go down, but it is, and it is finally being reported.

#188 Form Man on 01.06.13 at 2:29 pm

Kelowna real estate numbers are out for December 2012. The board is doing its best to spin the numbers as ‘flat’, but a look at the details provides some interesting insights:

MOI has jumped to 19.35 for all types of listings
MOI for single family lots is 47 ! ( this is an important number as it indicates future demand )

All told, while the numbers for the whole year appear flat or slightly up, the stats show this was frontloaded last spring and the numbers for the last 4 months of the year show a downward trend compared to 2011.

It seems DA was dead wrong when he told us ‘things were picking up’ in November of 2012.

http://www.omreb.com/files/12%20-%20CO%20Statistics%20December%202012.pdf

#189 Canadian Watchdog on 01.06.13 at 2:33 pm

The US will default on no federal debt. Period. — Garth

Nor will they ever hyper-inflate their debt away. Right, because as you stated again and again, the U.S. has the "power to tax" their debt away.

Just remember what Moody's said Garth: "For US To Maintain AAA, Need to Further Reduce Deficit Levels" and what happend last time they kicked the can.

Correct. No default. No hyper-inflation. Now you’re making sense. — Garth

#190 Marko Juras on 01.06.13 at 2:34 pm

“Marko Juras – 1240 realtors competing for 290 sales in December. Must be a lot of starving realtors or is it a hobby for some of them?”

Very few transactions are double-ended so 290 sales really means 500+ realtors were involved in a deal. Yes, lots of realtors have side jobs. I know many government employees with licences. As you know, barrier to entry into the business is extremely low.

#191 Stoopid Idiot on 01.06.13 at 2:49 pm

#168 periwinkles

Pass the pipe my Brother

#190 JimH

I think you may want to read more

http://www.jsmineset.com/

http://kliguy38depression2news.blogspot.com/

http://www.the-privateer.com/

#192 NoOneOfConsequence

Where would you suggest we begin?

#192 T.C. on 01.06.13 at 3:02 pm

O’bozo “romped” to victory? More like he hung on by the skin of his teeth. Helped along by a 100% vote in many electoral districts, where, oddly enough, the return was exactly the same as in 2008.

And it is a bull market – in guns. Americans have been arming themselves like never before. Gun stores have never done the kind of business that Bam Bam has brought their way.

If there is a employment or housing recovery in the U.S. it has a long, long way to go before it approaches anything like normal again – unless you count the contrived real estate market in LA as normal.

The kind of cheerleading you are doing makes me want to look over my shoulder.

Yen, anyone?

Typical Canadian moral superiority. BTW, our PM won with 37% of the vote while Obama got 51%. Try harder. — Garth

#193 Smoking Man on 01.06.13 at 3:02 pm

Don your such a fool… There has been a coordinated effort by the feds boc msm to stop this crazy bidding war crap in Toronto. It’s working price growth will slow, but will still go up, as far as my predicts ask Vlad.. Do you think I care if you read my posts.

I do cryptic messages wrapped in a vale of bad comedy, csis is all over me. They read my posts.

#194 Victoria on 01.06.13 at 3:21 pm

Someone took my name ….

I have been Victoria for years.

#195 coraline on 01.06.13 at 3:23 pm

Marko, I thought you were almost normal, for a realtor. Now you just sound like a jerk. I like the way you tried to make your first post sound like a reasonable request for advice when really you’re trying to convince people that even though the market is going down, there’s still good money to be made. Very manipulative.

#196 Hoof-Hearted on 01.06.13 at 3:38 pm

#201 Form Man on 01.06.13 at 2:29 pm

The people that didn’t take the insurance money from the Kelowna Fires(geez..almost 10 years ago) and run will regret it.

#197 Bottoms_Up on 01.06.13 at 3:41 pm

#163 Ayn Rand Army on 01.06.13 at 12:32 am
————————————————
#1: one can find a plethora of examples in the private sector of incompetence, and horrible service/quality for the money (Rogers vs. Bell, and cellular contracts immediately come to mind)

#2: if ever comparing wages and total compensation in the public vs. private sector, one has to look at the quality of each employee — and make an ‘apples to apples’ comparison. How many government jobs are equivalent to serving lattes at Starbucks?

#3: the level of compensation for work shouldn’t be a race to the bottom. If those in the private sector feel that public sector employees are treated well and better than they are, then everyone should be fighting for fair treatment and for raising the standard of compensation in the private sector.

#198 Hoof-Hearted on 01.06.13 at 3:46 pm

#137 Old Man on 01.05.13 at 8:54 pm

Re Justin Bieber

Good luck to him….but its a pretty sick industry. Maybe GOOGLE what the (2) Coreys Haim and Feldman …went through.

If he’s smart he’ll quit at the right time and run. Why the androgenous jail bait look?

If he doesn’t get out, he’ll end up a walking freak show like they all tend to do.

#199 gaspr on 01.06.13 at 3:50 pm

Here is an interesting article by Matt Taibbi about the big bank bailouts and how things stand today… kinda scary…
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/secret-and-lies-of-the-bailout-20130104?link=mostpopular1

#200 MultiCult on 01.06.13 at 3:53 pm

Garth thinks the US will recover, I hope he is right. Garth is like the alternative media guy that Canada never had.

#201 Picasso on 01.06.13 at 3:53 pm

With that monstrous Canada employment number(yet again) and the awful UK services PMI (first sub 50 since Dec 10), which implies the UK is still grinding slowly along at the bottom, is Mr Carney wondering what he is letting himself in for?

http://www.rmdfx.com/2013/01/06/how-now-from-here/

#202 Old Man on 01.06.13 at 4:40 pm

#174 new canadian – have a diploma and designation in insurance, and listen carefully. The cost to jump a liability policy is peanuts, and it is imperative to insure both a car and residence for a minimum of $2 million in todays world. The premium to double $1 million will amount to nothing on an annual basis for example, as if someone gets hurt in an accident which leaves them disabled for life is going to cost bigtime; not worth the risk of losing everything.

#203 hangfire on 01.06.13 at 4:46 pm

Hmmmmm…one of the seven dwarfs running for the Liberal leadership ( prov Ont) has been drinking too much of the PC demographers bathwater….announcing this am during the ‘leadership’ debate that since 2/3rds of all CDN seniors live in Ontario….and that ‘ it most communities it takes a liter of gas to get a liter of milk’….and while the analogy is silly…..because he’s talking about expanding public transit and taking away seniors drivers licenses in the same breath…he’s musing the Liberal Socialist cluster fiddle of ‘developing an intergovernmental land bank and building purpose built units for the Silver Tsunami to come……I thought I was listening to someone paraphrase Lenin or Marx.

The wet dream od the condo developer would be to rush the suburban elderly out of their ability to drive and thereby forcing them into litter boxes in the sky…..all subsidized by public funds…..what a very ‘liberal’ idea…..eh?

BTW …anyone who has been to a socialist housing system knows exactly what ‘public housing’ looks like…in Cuba……Soviet Union….CHina……..run down ghetto’s that fall apart instantaneously and where everyone shares a bathroom…..Viva Che !!

#204 C on 01.06.13 at 4:59 pm

Smoking Man, you say housing will keep going up. You say it’s because Canadians are stupid and they are lemmings and will keep buying forever.

The bottom line is any market is ruled by emotion. Currently in Canada it’s pure greed. The problem is buyers still believe in housing but it can’t go any further. Canadians are tapped out with maximum debt.

It doesn’t matter if you are in Canada, Ireland, Spain, United States, or Australia. When the limit is hit the tide turns and fear takes over. I suppose that in the countries just mentioned when their housing bubbles popped, they had highly intelligent people who didn’t follow the heard and decided to sell to cut losses because of ratios etc? Clearly not. They went from excited to scared and the selling started. They weren’t lloking at rent/income ratios andrent to buy ratios. They just wanted out.

So in a way u r correct when you say Canadians don’t think. When the pendulum swings the other way because no more debt can be taken on and interest rates can’t go any lower they won’t think. They will continue to follow the herd but the herd will be going the other way.

#205 Old Man on 01.06.13 at 5:04 pm

The USA will never default on their debt problem, and will remain the world currency of choice for many years to come, but disagree somewhat with Garth as hyper-inflation will come back eventually in time for another business cycle sometime in the future, but that might be 7 to 10 years out.

I have no idea what the USA is going to do about this debt scenerio, but if they took off the cap on payroll deductions which sits at about 97K per year for entitlements, whereby, all would pay a fair share, this alone would bring in $trillions. Also, have a hunch that they might have to print new money for a devaluation at sometime in the future. Lets see what happens!

#206 coastal on 01.06.13 at 5:15 pm

“I know many government employees with licences. ”

Interesting, maybe there should be an investigation into how many of these government employees milk our tax dollars by doing real estate deals off of our backs ? Hard to imagine they keep every client waiting til after 4:00 PM.

#207 coastal on 01.06.13 at 5:20 pm

Garth, great to see you allowing agents who trashed you to promote themselves on this blog. I think your credibility is going downhill fast if this continues.

How is my credibility impaired by a realtor making a fool of himself? — Garth

#208 EIT on 01.06.13 at 5:20 pm

Dah! You have this round Turner!

#209 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.06.13 at 5:54 pm

#201Form Man on 01.06.13 at 2:29 pm

The market looks just fine to me Form Boy.

http://i47.tinypic.com/2zgrij9.jpg

What am I missing?

#210 Form Man on 01.06.13 at 5:59 pm

3215 Old Man

I couldn’t agree more. Insurance is something you hope you never need, but when you do…….. you really need it. People are wise to get good coverage and never tell a lie to the insurance agent…….

Smoking Man

You presume that the Toronto SFH market will continue to rise based on buyer’s emotions. Hate to break it you buddy, but fundamentals matter, and once a market is oversupplied ( and trust me, the 416 is ) the party is over.

#211 TurnerNation on 01.06.13 at 6:00 pm

Oh I get today’s picture. Boomers want their
mid-life-crisis car (Muscle car, numbers matching) but the missus will have none of it.

#212 Humpty Dumpty on 01.06.13 at 6:07 pm

C watchdog, appreciate your deligence but G is right regarding the USSA….

http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Money-for-Nothin-Writing-Checks-for-Free.aspx

Sir Isaac Newton was asked about the apparent success of the government’s plan and he responded by saying that “I can calculate the movement of the stars but not the madness of men.”

#213 espressobob on 01.06.13 at 6:07 pm

#58 Claudius Emperor

You seem a bit depressed CE? If you are one of those who eyeballs your portfolio every day & worries about market moves, do yourself one better and find an advisor! Such an individual can take that weight off your shoulders and allow you to enjoy life. Just make sure he or she is fee based. cheers.

#214 DON on 01.06.13 at 6:36 pm

#208 coraline on 01.06.13 at 3:23 pm

Marko, I thought you were almost normal, for a realtor. Now you just sound like a jerk. I like the way you tried to make your first post sound like a reasonable request for advice when really you’re trying to convince people that even though the market is going down, there’s still good money to be made. Very manipulative.
*******************

Agreed!

Marko – I will not be calling you – I will be using a lawyer and my own inspector when ready to buy and beware – word travels quickly in Victoria.

#215 Frank on 01.06.13 at 6:36 pm

So, do you think dividend paying canadian banks will still be a good long term investment?

Thanks,
Frank

#216 Andrew on 01.06.13 at 6:39 pm

DA you are right again!

You are not missing anything, very good market analysis!

Agreed, market looks fine today, (though, let’s not mention the tobaggan slide to the cliff’s edge- life’s too short to worry about the ride down right ;-) )

Anyway,
I really do hope sales pick up for you soon, sounds like you could really use some.

#217 Doesn't Matter on 01.06.13 at 6:43 pm

Wow, it is truly a marvel the people you attract to comment on your blog Garth. You have those who are so much smarter than the rest of the world but still charitably share all that vast knowledge here. I think the ones that impress me the most though are the ones who are so fabulously wealthy, well connected and obviously themselves very important people so therefore must be extremely, extremely busy what with dealing with their fortunes and all of those freinds in high places. Yet still somehow, to your great benefit, they find the time in their undoubtedly hectic days to post on your blog a dozen or so times a day.

My goodness you are just so blessed.

#218 DON on 01.06.13 at 6:46 pm

#206 Smoking Man on 01.06.13 at 3:02 pm

Don your such a fool… There has been a coordinated effort by the feds boc msm to stop this crazy bidding war crap in Toronto. It’s working price growth will slow, but will still go up, as far as my predicts ask Vlad.. Do you think I care if you read my posts.

I do cryptic messages wrapped in a vale of bad comedy, csis is all over me. They read my posts.

**********************************

Wow! to say the least you are quite the piece of work. You resort to calling someone a fool to try and win an argument. How about providing some facts, proof. I am a reasonable person much unlike you. And if CSIS is after you – nice way of keeping a low profile by posting ABSOLUTE JIBBERISH on blog that certainly gets a high level of traffic.

Remind me of your predictions, actually don’t – tired of your idiotic posts. You offer nothing, maybe that’s why you post here so much – you might find some friends on Lava life.

Still confused about your TO assertions, and my bullshit meter is well tuned.

#219 Hoof - Hearted on 01.06.13 at 7:01 pm

Civil Servants double dip…?

……………………..say it ain’t so Toto

#220 Cici on 01.06.13 at 7:09 pm

Where is Garth?
I miss the photos, I miss the humour, I miss the anecdotes.

Garth, are you on a winter retreat? Snowshoeing with Dorothy. Awe, how romantic ;-)

#221 };-) aka D.A. on 01.06.13 at 7:20 pm

Third time a charm?

#220coastal on 01.06.13 at 5:20 pm
Garth, great to see you allowing agents who trashed you to promote themselves on this blog. I think your credibility is going downhill fast if this continues.

How is my credibility impaired by a realtor making a fool of himself? — Garth

Mere postings and such as that which Marco Juras promotes in his peddling posting #135, have been a great boon to my full service business. Enough so that I don’t need to solicit business from Garth’s site choosing instead to be its anonymous, most despised Devil’s Advocate.

I LOVE discount brokers.

};-)

#222 Ayn Rand Army on 01.06.13 at 7:25 pm

210 Bottoms_Up on 01.06.13 at 3:41 pm

#163 Ayn Rand Army on 01.06.13 at 12:32 am
————————————————
#1: one can find a plethora of examples in the private sector of incompetence, and horrible service/quality for the money (Rogers vs. Bell, and cellular contracts immediately come to mind)

But it’s not sustainable in the private sector since the company will go bust under competition whereas a government run monopoly will is immune to market forces and just drags down the country.

#2: if ever comparing wages and total compensation in the public vs. private sector, one has to look at the quality of each employee — and make an ‘apples to apples’ comparison. How many government jobs are equivalent to serving lattes at Starbucks?

On the same note, what does government know about education and healthcare either. Doctors and teachers should be running those industries. Not bureaucrats.

#3: the level of compensation for work shouldn’t be a race to the bottom. If those in the private sector feel that public sector employees are treated well and better than they are, then everyone should be fighting for fair treatment and for raising the standard of compensation in the private sector.

The labour market is a market just like any other and labour mobility and price discovery is essential for free markets to function properly. Everyone gets what they deserve or are willing to work for and you’re always free to leave a job if a better one comes your way.

In economics you can’t just regiment i higher standard of living. It has to be achieved.

Also remember, the private sector must carry the public sector on it’s shoulders via taxation. So you can’t just raise the private sectors wages without lowering taxes and public sector wages.

#223 Canadian Watchdog on 01.06.13 at 7:29 pm

#225 Humpty Dumpty

Have any idea what the biggest potential threat is to the USD? It's not gold, and it's already trading against currencies.  In fact it's such a threat that the ECB even wrote a paper on warning other central banks to 'keep and eye on it'. Read more here and if you're really interet in the theory and function of money, watch this starting at 5min.

#224 Smoking Man on 01.06.13 at 7:39 pm

Don, #123

I thought you where done reading my posts.

Let’s face it, some times they are brilliant usually shit, but even you can’t do a swoop over.

Your not alone…. :)

#225 };-) aka D.A. on 01.06.13 at 7:40 pm

The thing I enjoy most about that video, Devil’s Advocate , besides being a Stones Fan, is how it so scathingly demonstrates the hypocrisy of those who blame their own vices on other than themselves. “The Devil made me do it.” The Big Bad REALTOR® made me buy that McMansion I couldn`t afford. HGTV got me hooked on House Porn.

Really, which came first; the chicken or the egg.

#226 };-) aka D.A. on 01.06.13 at 7:45 pm

#229 Andrew on 01.06.13 at 6:39 pm

Had me fooled at first read. You forgot to use the sarcasm font my friend.

#227 Form Man on 01.06.13 at 7:58 pm

#222 DA

good charts. they confirm my post.

sales flat
MOI trending up
Days to sell trending up
price trending down

#228 Marko Juras on 01.06.13 at 8:09 pm

“Marko – I will not be calling you – I will be using a lawyer and my own inspector when ready to buy and beware – word travels quickly in Victoria.”

That’s totally cool. The consumer deserves options and it sounds like you have it figured out.

#229 espressobob on 01.06.13 at 8:18 pm

#228 Frank

Putting all your eggs in one basket is known in investing lingo as “concentration risk”.

Owning dividend yielding ETF’s that are spread out through many sectors and countries help mitigate that risk.

If you feel a bit squeamish don’t be afraid to consult an advisor. That might prove to be a good investment. cheers.

#230 };-) aka D.A. on 01.06.13 at 8:56 pm

#240Form Man on 01.06.13 at 7:58 pm
#222 DA

good charts. they confirm my post.

sales flat
MOI trending up
Days to sell trending up
price trending down

You can see the worst in anything.

What I see is Sales Volumes NOT falling. Not substantially increasing but certainly not falling either and that ain’t bad – not bad at all

What I see is Months of Inventory way down from what it was in 2008 and 2009. I only included that graph for you by the way as I know how you are so enamoured by it – like a tot with a new toy or teen with a spray can of paint.

What I see is a Median Days to Sell well under 100 which is a respectable median time for any more balanced market. More or less than that indicates a failing one way or another far more so than your M.O.I. fascination does.

What I see is Median Sales Price moderately down from the peak, but not nearly so much as people such as yourself claim and certainly very stable for the better part of the last four years after taking a bit of an uptick after the fallout of 2008. Seriously look at that graph. Prices have been practically flat since 2009 and, really, all things considered, there isn’t anything wrong with that as prices hold waiting for the tend-line to catch up, as is typically what happens more than their falling back in line with it. Remember prices are fluid on the way up but sticky on the way down.

Don’t knock stability Form Boy. Each of those graphs depicts a welcomed stability in our Kelowna market.

It’s all good.

And please note; I am making no projection, but rather merely pointing out the facts at hand.

#231 Form Man on 01.06.13 at 9:05 pm

#243 DA

I must say, you are beginning to be much more realistic about the Kelowna market DA. It is good to see.

#232 Richard and Zeus on 01.06.13 at 9:32 pm

#210 Bottoms_Up on 01.06.13 at 3:41 pm

Spoken like a true guvmint werker who pisses money away everyday at the expense of the working poor (with no cushy pension).

#233 Herb on 01.06.13 at 9:50 pm

#206 Smoking Man,

“csis [sic] is all over me. They read my posts.”

You wish! Heck, that would make you interesting.

#234 Andrew on 01.06.13 at 10:11 pm

DA,

Sarcasm?

#235 Andrew on 01.06.13 at 10:24 pm

DA,

#243

“And please note; I am making no projection, but rather merely pointing out the facts at hand.”

Total realtor SalesSpeak BS , Of Course your are.

See DA, that is the major flaw in your arguement, it’s true today but the market is clearly trending down, everyone and their dog knows it…but stay in your happy denial place, I know it’s easier in there.

Man, I just wish realtors would stop cutting and pasting industry generated stats-might certainly give your position a modicum of credibility.

How ’bout instead from now on you publish a running tally of your sales figures-and be honest now!

#236 Hoof - Hearted on 01.07.13 at 8:36 pm

Old Man aka Justin Bieber fan

Understand the meaning of this?

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/4619733/Justin-Bieber-shows-off-new-owl-tattoo.html