The con-fidence men

cartel

Friday the biggest real estate organization in the country – the fattest in all of North America, actually – releases its latest numbers. Yeah, yeah, December always sucks in Toronto. We know that. Last year a measly 4,718 properties changed hands.

We also know sales in the first two weeks were running 16% behind the same period in 2011, and that was before the heavens opened up and the fiscal cliff loomed. So, it’s a fair assumption to expect a drop of about 20% in the stats. (Update, Friday morning: the numbers are out. The sales decline in December was 19.5%, year/year.) This marks the ninth consecutive month of sales declines in the GTA which, apparently, has not happened before. Unless the laws of economics don’t apply to this market of six million people, lower prices will follow.

Already you can see the impact of this. Way more realtors posting on this pathetic blog. “Garth, are you uneasy about the fact that you have become the king of our nation’s jealous losers?,” asks one from Halifax. “If your brains equaled your arrogance, that would be one thing. But your arrogance far outweighs your mind,” says another from Toronto. “You are jealous at all the money realtors are making. Deep down you regret not being one I bet. Man u missed a lot of commissions,” adds a broker from BC.

Well, speaking of Vancouver, that real estate board has just shoveled out the heartache for everyone who bought there in the last two years.

  • A paltry 1,142 sales last month, down 31.1% from the previous December. Ouch.
  • Sales crashed 32% from November. Yes, this past November.
  • Sales for all of 2012 – which included the frenzy last Spring which I told you at the time was the market top – crashed 23% from 2011, and were 25.7% below the ten-year average.
  • The average detached home in Van has lost 1% of its value every month since June.
  • Listings (as I told you yesterday) are plunging. Shell-shocked sellers have retreated from the market, and are desperately hoping there will be a spring revival. And Jesus is coming.

So how do you smear some lipstick on this pig?

“For much of 2012 we saw a collective hesitation on the part of buyers and sellers in the Greater Vancouver housing market,” says head realtor Eugen Klein. “This behavior was reflected in lower than average home sale activity and modest fluctuations in home prices.”

Meanwhile this week people across BC are receiving their provincial assessments – which show substantial decreases in a huge number of properties, but are already six months out of date. This province is hugely at risk of a real estate-induced recession in 2013.

Meanwhile Albertans continue to risk utter delusion. Would you believe people in Edmonton woke up to this headline yesterday?

SUN1

Yeehaw! Yahoo! What the heck are these cowboys and oil patchers yelping about? Last month sales in the city where digits freeze plunged 31% from the previous month, and are down 17% from the same month a year ago. Listings have withered by almost 19%, and it now takes over two full months to sell a house – and rising.

As for price, the average property has gained just $17,000 in a year, to $333,140, but the value of all houses sold last month took a 12.3% tumble. Hell, the average price of a property in Edmonton was lower in December than it was back in August, while it took 22% longer to sell a house.

How is this “Home $weet Home”? Who peed in the water trough?

“The Finance Minister toyed with the mortgage qualification rules at the beginning of the year but otherwise this market operated in a smooth and stable manner,” fibbed board prez Doug Singleton.“ Realtors and their clients could trade in real estate with confidence and certainty.”

You can be confident, all right. 2013 will be one to remember.

197 comments ↓

#1 Fuurst on 01.03.13 at 9:45 pm

I’m first!

#2 Rob on 01.03.13 at 9:46 pm

First

#3 Randy on 01.03.13 at 9:47 pm

My house went up 40%…Sure you can raise my assessment 60%…haha…I’m richer than I think !!!

#4 Rob on 01.03.13 at 9:48 pm

Will CREA be ever held responsible for misleading people?

#5 Charlie on 01.03.13 at 9:52 pm

I’m sure many will still not take Garth seriously until the spring reality hits.

#6 Proud Musty Basement Dweller (WestCoast) on 01.03.13 at 9:56 pm

I imagine the Real Estate Cartel in Vancouver will be the last ones to fully acknowledge what is truly going on with now real housing values are decreasing in Vancouver. Heck even the assessment body is dropping values, and they have more of a vested interest in keeping prices high than the Cartel. Sheesh.

#7 Blais on 01.03.13 at 9:58 pm

I live in Montreal and I can say there is a real disconnect in the real estate market. Almost all areas in Montreal is having this problems. You should do a conference here.

I was shopping a few month ago for a 2 bedrooms condo and I decided to postpone my purchase for at least 2 year.

Why?

In 500 m radius there was 60 units for sale (new, old).

- A brand new condos from a developer (350 000$)

It has been sitting there empty for 2 years. I asked the developer : is it negotiable? He answered : NO. Funny because a few day ago he lowered is price for the same unit to 309 000$. They have been calling me and sending me special offer every month since then trying to sell me one of their unit….. ahahhahah. Condo fees were 150$/month

- A 15 year old condo (350 000$)

It was comparable in term of size as the new one but…… kitchen and bathroom was 15 years old so I was expecting to put 50000$ in renovation. Why buy a used one when it is the same price as a new one??? Also, condos fees were around 350$/ month

- A brand new condos from a speculator (375 000$)

It has been sitting there empty for 1.5 years. I asked the speculator: is it negotiable? He answered : NO. Funny because his pictures (on the real estate website) had snow from the last winter. Also, it is not really interesting because your warranty is not as long as a brand new one because the unit is 1.5 year old. You can t chose the fit and and finish because it is build already. Condo fees were 150$/month

Then I was looking of the municipal assessment of these units above. All of them had were priced at least 75 000$ above municipal assessment.

My yearly income is 68 000$ before tax. In Quebanana this is above average.

After tax, my disposable income melt to 3200$/month. According to the bank I could borrow up to 350 000$ with a 5% down payment (I think it is ridiculous putting 5% considering that the RE is going to correct by at least 20% within 2 year). 350 000$ is 5.14x my income.

I decided to make a budget to see if it was possible to « survive » with a mortgage max out.

Mortgage : 2100$/month
Municipal taxes: 300$/month
Heating: 100$/month
Condos fees: 150$/month
Home insurance : 30$/month
Car insurance : 100$/month
Internet + tv + cell phone: 120$/month
Car gas : 120$/month
Food : 300$/month
————————————————————–
3320$/month

I’m already underwater with this hypothetical scenario and I’m sure I forgot many thing such as restaurant, entertainment, saving, etc.

Bottom line : wait for price decline in Montreal. It is going to hurt a lot of people. Salary didn t match RE price increase.

Just take the last 5 year where inflation is ~10% (usually salary increase) and RE price increase 32%.

Can you explain the 32%-10%= 22%???

DEBT!

#8 Intuitive Missus on 01.03.13 at 9:59 pm

Now even the G&M are talking about why housing prices won’t be coming back. Too many of us old geezers:)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/why-housing-prices-arent-coming-back/article6929120/

#9 Looking For a Home on 01.03.13 at 10:00 pm

Waiting for spring.

#10 Rob on 01.03.13 at 10:03 pm

I’m getting all horny just thinking about 2013. Finally the beginning of a long deserved slap in the face.

#11 DJB on 01.03.13 at 10:04 pm

Garth, I can only imagine the comments and emails you get must sound like the one Rob Carrick got in the comment section of this article.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/canadas-housing-hangover-real-estate-boom-meet-dot-com-crash/article6867321/

One day you should publish the 100 best of list for everyone’s amusement.

#12 Smoking Man on 01.03.13 at 10:06 pm

We also know sales in the first two weeks were running 16% behind the same period in 2011, and that was before the heavens opened up and the fiscal cliff loomed. So, it’s a fair assumption to expect a drop of about 20% in the stats.-Garth

Probably right, tighter mortgage rules, gloom and doom, talking down the market…….Brovo sir Gartho

BUT take out condos—-416GTA SFH— what is this the prices are up……………………

Watch wee grasshopper do you think us boomers are going to bend over for pimple faced basement dwellers.

Ha

IT’S NOT FOR SALE………………….NO LISTINGS supply and demand in harmony…..

PS where is LaughingCon, he out looking right now, this is the bottom, spring market around corner…..

#13 olivier on 01.03.13 at 10:06 pm

Thanks to Garth now I’m free. I understood that real estate is just one of ways to invest. No more frustration. no more depression. Go for market timing. Either with equity, insurance, real estate or fixed income. Be creative. Read books, discuss, try things and above all : dont loose everything in stupid things that are made in china you can find everywhere. Be a free spirit. Travel with your money dont by cheap things. from montreal with love

#14 Fact Checker on 01.03.13 at 10:08 pm

“Hell, the average price of a property in Edmonton was lower in December than it was back in August…” ~ Garth.

Same as every year, Sherlock.

The eternal inability to comprehend seasonality in the RE market is simply laughable.

Tell the Edmonton Sun. That, Sherlock, was the point. — Garth

#15 Dr. WAYNE on 01.03.13 at 10:09 pm

1 Fuurst on 01.03.13 at 9:45 pm

I’m first!
#2 Rob on 01.03.13 at 9:46 pm

First

====================

Two mutant mindless a$$holes yet again …

#16 Ronaldo on 01.03.13 at 10:10 pm

#7 Blais – good post.

#17 Rob on 01.03.13 at 10:10 pm

#6
The RE Cartel already knows what is happening and think they can prevent natural economics from taking placing by deliberately tweeking the stats and misinformation. If CREA did not know what was happening then why all the effort to play with numbers!

#18 DJB on 01.03.13 at 10:10 pm

Oh and BTW what are bullish R/E agents doing lurking around this blog in the first place? Do they subconsciously know yet can not admit the obvious?

I guess they just drop by to spread the good R/E cheer!

#19 The con-fidence men — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate « The Affluent Boomer™ on 01.03.13 at 10:11 pm

[...] via The con-fidence men — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Es…. [...]

#20 Blobby on 01.03.13 at 10:12 pm

#3 Randy:

Congratulations on having to pay more property tax!

And good luck selling at that price (you’ll need it)

#21 Christopher Lackey on 01.03.13 at 10:20 pm

Many blue chips out there pay 3-6% quarterly dividends. Even though a lot of the REITs I bought with Garth’s indirect encouragement in the summer are down 5-20%, these are just paper losses while they continue to pump out distributions every month. There are a some, but not a lot, of good companies in North America now that are significantly undervalued compared with their balance sheets and historical values. That’s without talking about idiot-proof ETFs and your cash on hand making 1%. If gold continues its tumble you can scoop up maple leafs at very low commission from the big banks, surprisingly.

My point? Patience and diversification are the keys. There are way better places to put your money then overpriced, shittily built canadian real estate How can these realtors think anyone in this land is still horny at this point?

Sure I’m tired of living in an apartment building with neighbours complaining about the kid’s noise. But just look at Blais’ #7 comment to get a taste of realtor delusion in Montreal. There are way better things to with your cash. Btw M Blais, there is a building on my street 10 min drive/metro from downtown with 6 1 bedroom apartments for 710,000, 2x the price of one of those glass shoeboxes

#22 Marko Juras on 01.03.13 at 10:36 pm

Hi Garth,

I am a REALTOR® in Victoria, BC. I purchased a pre-sale one bedroom condo in Q1 of 2009 during the downturn for $198,900 downtown Victoria. The building was finished in 2011 and I put 20% down and went variable at 2.25%. My mortgage is $615 per month, more than half goes on principal. Strata fees are $150/month and taxes approx. $80/month. Similar units to mine rent for approximately $1,100. On completion I figure the unit was worth about $240,000….now probably around $225,000. Should I sell and rent? What are your thoughts.

Affordability not an issue, my yearly income is close to that of the mortgage amount. RSPs and TSFA both maxed out.

Sorry. I’m just a BLOGGER®. — Garth

#23 Furst on 01.03.13 at 10:36 pm

The Angry Doctor – a poem by Furst dedicated to Dr. Wayne

His parents proud, straight A’s through school
Graduated top of his class, not a greater fool
But despite his smarts, not a prom date in sight
Lack of social skills was his main plight

That mattered not, because to college he went
To study science, he knew what that meant
Libraries, no parties, no girlfriends at all
But that’s okay because one day he’d have it all
Admission to med school, his saving grace
Ignore the loans, it’s all part of the race

Burned the midnight oil, but hated every minute
Pushed his mind and patience to the ultimate limit
Still no girlfriend, but that’s okay
The ladies would flock, when he was a doctor one day

Got into residency, but that hardly paid
Riddled with debt, he’d one day have it made
After years of doing something he hates
Finally becomes a doctor, but still no dates

Too many loans and income just so-so
Can’t afford a home, No girl, no Mojo
His anger rises when he finally realizes
Most on this blog, ended up with the prizes
No debt, bigger income, a wife and kids too
And they partied in college, now who’s the fool?

Of course he’s angry, insults with words of fire
Anyone who’s happy, he’ll call them a liar
We ponder and wonder, with his ‘charmed’ life
Why does the good doctor, still have no wife?

#24 jf on 01.03.13 at 10:42 pm

Global BC @ 6pm. Chris Gailus says Vancouver housing market currently undergoing a “bloodbath”. They actually reported the -23% drop in sales, though they mention prices only marginally lower. Looking forward to prices catching up in a memorable 2013 (just saving a down payment while waiting on the sidelines). Thanks for the great blog Garth.

#25 Conrad on 01.03.13 at 10:43 pm

Ahh it takes being first yesterday and a second post to finally get some direct information about Edmonton.

Thank you,

I think more people all through out the country would like to hear abut something other then GTA and Vancouver, keep up the multi city posts they are nice and add more weight to the claim that it is all over the place. Next up Yellowknife and Whitehorse eh!?

#26 The Prophet Elijah on 01.03.13 at 10:49 pm

Well Garth thanks for the chuckle this evening with the Jesus and peed in the trough comments. Although we don’t agree on somethings (gold) thanks for being the voice of reason in this mad house RE mkt.

#27 young & foolish on 01.03.13 at 10:49 pm

Time for a foolish question …..

1) What can you buy with borrowed money, which you don’t have to pay back out of your own pocket?

#28 Oakville Owner on 01.03.13 at 10:50 pm

Garth……have a vrm what month should we lock it in for 5 years or more? Current rate is 2.20%

#29 Jim Lahey on 01.03.13 at 10:54 pm

#23 Furst

Well done Furst! Brilliant as usual. You are so diplomatic and witty in your poetic expose of the demented and bitter “Dr.” Wayne. The only mutant mindless a$$shole on this blog is “Dr.” Wayne. As the self appointed “first” controller he relishes hurling invectives at others only to get them back at him in return.

#30 Corban on 01.03.13 at 11:00 pm

“…woke up to…” not “…work up to…”?

#31 Fed-up on 01.03.13 at 11:05 pm

@#27 young & foolish
Time for a foolish question …..

1) What can you buy with borrowed money, which you don’t have to pay back out of your own pocket?
—————————————————————–

Is that a riddle?

I have one that Dr. Wayne may like :)

What are the 2 professions where you can fail your clients miserably on a daily basis yet still be well paid and be gainfully employed each and every following week, regardless of outcome?

Meteorologist and Medical Doctor :p

#32 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 01.03.13 at 11:11 pm

I was worried, but Garth has restored my faith in BLOG-ERR quality control.

40% raunchy/soft porn..balanced by 60% ambiguous…. is the target P.C. ratio .

#33 Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 01.03.13 at 11:21 pm

Realtors are financially hurting and they are hurting real bad. I heard a young realtors actually got their home foreclosed on….OUCH! With some realtors not making a sale for almost a year you can see the PANIC hit the greaterfool blog. Keep holding out buyers and watch sellers and realtors crumble to the ground in a wave of foreclosures or crashing home prices. There is a panic going on in the RE industry. It’s going to be a financially cold winter realtors, A financially COLD winter.

#34 Smoking Man on 01.03.13 at 11:23 pm

#8 Intuitive Missus on 01.03.13 at 9:59 pmNow even the G&M are talking about why housing prices won’t be coming back. Too many of us old geezers:)http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/why-housing-prices-arent-coming-back/article6929120/

Dude rob the author of that report has been a real estate bear since 2008 he’s got skin in the game, reputation, he’s been calling for a crash for a long time. He’s like 0 in 20 in predictions coming true.

Don’t get to excited, listen to me, I have vision..

No belief system, pure and deep anyalitics with no bias.

No care which way it goes..

#35 Devore on 01.03.13 at 11:24 pm

“Edmonton house values on the rise, average annual tax hike pegged at $60.”

That’s cute, but a total red herring. Throwing sand in the eyes.

Property taxes are up because the city needs more money, not because houses cost more. Period. But it’s funny, this headline will make many people happy, because house prices going up is good news, so they gladly pay more taxes, when one has absolutely nothing to do with the other.

#36 Sydneysider on 01.03.13 at 11:26 pm

There are two distinct markets in Edmonton. The house market:

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

and the condo market:

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_Condo_stats/page_1918040.html

Readers can judge for themselves the market conditions in Edmonton.

If this post were an undergraduate summary of statistical data, I would give it a bare pass, with the comment: “please do not allow your evaluation of empirical data to be coloured by rationalism”.

My data came from the real estate board. Go fight them. — Garth

#37 Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 01.03.13 at 11:27 pm

Realtor smokingman is hurting financially. Keep spreading the word garth and you to blog dogs. Together we will distory the CREA as we bankrupt them all. It’s going to be a finacially COLD 2013 , financially COLD 2013.

#38 Bottoms_Up on 01.03.13 at 11:32 pm

#7 Blais on 01.03.13 at 9:58 pm
———————————-
Paying $350,000 for a box in the sky in Montreal surely is ludicrous. Take that amount and buy yourself a little house with some land, rent out a room or two and you’ll be fine. Or, rent one of those condos for 1/2 the price of ownership.

#39 Ralph Cramdown on 01.03.13 at 11:36 pm

Dr WAYNE:
Hey Fuuurst

Fuurst:
Yes WAYNE?

Dr WAYNE:
I’ve got something to say.
I really loved the skillful way
You beat the other posters to be ‘Fuurst’ today!

The river was deep but I swam it, Fuurster
The future is ours so let’s plan it, Fuurster
So please don’t tell me to can it, Fuurster
I’ve one thing to say and that’s
Dammit, Fuurster, I love you…

The road was long but i ran it, Fuurster
There’s a fire in my heart and you fan it, Fuurster
If there’s one fool for you then I am it, Fuurster
Now I’ve one thing to say and that’s
Dammit, Fuurster, I love you…

Here’s a ‘ring’ to prove that I’m no joker
There’s three ways that love can grow
That’s good, bad or mediocre
Oh Fuurst — I love you so

Fuurst:
Oh it’s nicer than Betty Munroe had,oh WAYNE
Now we’re engaged and I’m so glad,oh WAYNE
That you’ve met Mum and you know Dad, oh WAYNE
I’ve one thing to say and that’s
WAYNE I’m mad for you too…

Oh WAYNE,

Dr WAYNE:
Oh… dammit!

Fuurst:
I’m mad,

Dr WAYNE:
Oh Fuurst-er!

Dr WAYNE:
For you,

Both:
I love you too
There’s one thing left to do, and that’s

Dr WAYNE:
Go see the man who began it, Fuurster
When we met in his real estate blog site, Fuurster
Made me give you the eye and then panic,
Fuurster
There’s one thing to say and that’s
Dammit, Fuurster, I love you…

Dammit Fuurster;

Fuurst:
Oh WAYNE, I’m mad

Dr WAYNE:
Dammit Fuurster;

Both:
I love you!

[Exuent; enter Dr. Garth-N-Furter]

#40 TurnerNation on 01.03.13 at 11:37 pm

Metals have resumed their downtrend. This is horrible, for some. Those enigmatic sock-drawer ignoramuses.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=d1

#41 Devore on 01.03.13 at 11:37 pm

#7 Blais

Because it doesn’t take a Garth or some other economist or talking head or doomer for people to take notice of what is going on in real estate. Just a regular person with a spreadsheet, common sense, a cool head and some honesty.

#42 From Mississauga with Love on 01.03.13 at 11:37 pm

the real estate boards are not the only ones trying to manipulate figures. You are as well. Everyone knows real estate is lower in the winter than it is in the spring and yet you continue to quote spring to date decline while all that really matters is YoY comparisons (i.e. seasonally adjusted).
and BTW, “just” a 17K increase in the average home price in Edmonton is actually over 5% increase, not a bad increase. You are trying to manipulate that into a negative number by showing the total sales dollar value, which is lower because of volume not because of a decline in ASP.
don’t point a finger at the real estate boards when the other three fingers are pointing at you.

Actually I used year-over-year comparisons, with all numbers provided by the real estate industry itself. But have a nice hissy fit. — Garth

#43 Quebec is Great on 01.03.13 at 11:38 pm

#23 Furst….
—————————-

You earned a slow clap and a nod for that one :)

#44 Hurly on 01.03.13 at 11:38 pm

#23 Furst on 01.03.13 at 10:36 pm
The Angry Doctor – a poem by Furst dedicated to Dr. Wayne

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Furst that sh#t is f*cking golden. Well said!

#45 TurnerNation on 01.03.13 at 11:38 pm

Email from the mortgage-broker today.

“5 year fixed rate at 2.84%–newyear promotion

Fixed-rate mortgages are priced according to bond yields because of the way that they are packaged and sold to investors. These are called a Mortgage Backed Security, or MBS. Typically, a fixed mortgage is priced at the bond yield plus 1.7-1.9 per cent, which covers the banks’ costs, administration and, of course, profits

As of yesterday the 5 year Canadian benchmark yield was 1.38 which equates the estimated 5year fixed rate in the range of 3.08 to 3.28.
Compared this 2.84% 5 year fixed is a bargain.

Mortgage Rates

2 year fixed: 2.69%
3 year fixed: 2.65%
5 year fixed : 2.84%

5 year variable:P-.30(2.70%)”

#46 Toon Town Boomer on 01.03.13 at 11:50 pm

They call you arrogant, but yet they gloat about their commissions. The commissions they get for misleading, manipulating and with holding information from people. SELL PRIVATE, and when the time is right BUY PRIVATE.

#47 Smoking Man on 01.04.13 at 12:02 am

#39 Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 01.03.13 at 11:27 pm
Realtor smokingman is hurting financially. Keep spreading the word garth and you to blog dogs. Together we will distory the CREA as we bankrupt them all. It’s going to be a finacially COLD 2013 , financially COLD 2013.

…………………………………………………………………

Welcome back dude, I miss your insanity…………

You didn’t listen in 2008, 2009,2010, 11 and 12

Realtor business is slow, I will cut my commission just for you….Problem is nothing for sale…..
I can’t help you ….

Dr WAYNE: I’m so jealous you are on everyone’s shit list, you took the pressure off me. Thanks.

I’m a fan, altho I am too self absorbed and ego centered to read your shit or anyone else s, I have picked up on some chirps your way and that’s a good thing with this crowed……

You can’t bend what you cant offend…….

#48 renters rule on 01.04.13 at 12:02 am

@#7 Blais

Awesome post! As a long time Garth follower, I am impressed… YOU TOTALLY GET IT!!!!!!

#49 VanCity on 01.04.13 at 12:02 am

“The average detached home in Van has lost 1% of its value every month since June.” — I thought you didn’t like the ‘frankennumber’ HPI that the board publishes Garth? Because the average detached price is actually surprisingly up since June.

Van board raw stats show a -6% return for last six months. — Garth

#50 Red Deer Cave Man on 01.04.13 at 12:05 am

I cant even read the articles here from the big city papers without feeling dismayed?,pissed off?etc. No accountability,scheisters!! My thoughts at the moment are to always offer 20% below asking.
Funny, went to bank to see how much of a mortgage I could afford just to see. I almost felt, or did feel I was being manipulated? into getting a 90 day pre approval. I just wanted info!!

I hope RE in AB tanks- or plops 10-20%??

#51 LV1 on 01.04.13 at 12:10 am

Everybody is talking about the spring but the real bloodbath will be in 3-5 years when 5 year terms come up. That’s when the real pain will begin, as all the underwater mortgages will put the last nail in the coffin. All that people will be talking about in RE in 2017 is “do you remember when somebody paid 1.7 M for that POS? I don’t think you could get 600k for it now”.

In the mean time the world won’t end, houses will still sell and prices will march up and down sasonally on their inevitable long-term decline. it takes a long time to undo a decade of brainwashing on how much houses are “worth”. Patience and diversified investing in the mean time will pay off, don’t cave into emotion and buy something in Nov just cause it looks like a good deal compared to last may.

#52 Dr. WAYNE on 01.04.13 at 12:11 am

#24 Furst on 01.03.13 at 10:36 pm

Your ode is commendable … and I ‘am’ impressed … really … and quite taken with the energy you have obviously extruded (from which end, I’m not sure) to present such a detailed misadventure, however, inaccurate. Still, I reiterate, I’m quite impressed …

Whatever stimulated such a verbose outpouring? Do you have ‘dark’ dreams of me, big boy ?

By the way, your title is ‘way’ off … no anger at all, absolutely none … I’m simply on a mission (apart from learning whatever I can from Mr. Turner).

#53 Dr. WAYNE on 01.04.13 at 12:15 am

#41 Ralph Cramdown on 01.03.13 at 11:36 pm

WOW !!! Ralphy boy … superb …

#54 VMD on 01.04.13 at 12:22 am

Battle of Vancouver: Condo Front Dec/12 Battle Map updated
http://greaterfoolvancouver.blogspot.ca/2013/01/battle-of-vancouver-condo-dec-2012.html
- Bear Forces forcefully claimed highly strategic Richmond
- Bear Forces now control the entire pacific waterfront and YVR airport, cutting off Bull’s access to HAM (Hostile Asian Mercenaries)
- North Vancouver Bull Forces are being decimated from 6 tanks down to 1. It may be next to fall.

#55 Furst on 01.04.13 at 12:24 am

#51 Dr. WAYNE on 01.04.13 at 12:11 am
Your ode is commendable … and I ‘am’ impressed

Thank you Dr. Wayne. Trust me, hardly any energy at all to write that. Just have a way with words. I appreciate you appreciating my talent. And if you’re a doctor, I do make more money than you and not just in my dark dreams. Angry yet?

#56 Wally Wingnut on 01.04.13 at 12:26 am

Got my BC Assessment in the mail in Kelowna BC. Assessed value is down again year after year. Last years value $397,000 this time around down again to $386,000. The house used to make me more money per year than my salary. Not any more. This market has been declining here locally since 2008 and will continue to be soft for years to come.
My point is that K Town has been on a decline since 2008. It is a slow melt. Other markets need to play catch up on the way down for example Winnipeg. Here in Kelowna we are leading the way down. Yea! Come and join us. You have no choice. Welcome to the slide down to reality.

#57 Interesting Times on 01.04.13 at 12:27 am

A very hard landing is coming for many, make sure you protect yourself and family! The 50% RE Crash is coming quickly and you better have at least 6 months to 1 year salary on hand to ride out this crash if you are a victim of this Ponzi Scheme.

HGTV Virgins get out there and start low balling these realtards by 50%. Don’t waste your time going to open houses when you could just sit on the MLS and low ball these used car salespeople by email. Get out there and get your revenge. Show them that you are not as stupid as the show protrays you!

- Europe already in recession/depression, Japan and US right behind them. This will have a negative feed back loop across the global economy.

- jobs being lost everywhere and the Canadian economy is slowing down. Watch BNN and learn about the layoffs happening everyday or just read the business section it is all there for you my virgins. Educate yourself! To bad many of you just read the life, sports and entertainment section and don’t educate yourselves.

- austerity starting already in Canada. Many in government jobs will be bye, bye. Federal gov’t firing 20,000 alone in Canada. All gov’t jobs under attack.

- manufacturing jobs have moved to Asia and back to the USA. Canadians can’t compete with the New America where the factory worker now makes $12.00 to $15.00 an hour and can buy a nice home for $100,000-$200,000K. You are so screwed in Canada! Latest victim is GM Canada who will be closing the Camaro Plant in Oshawa & moving it back to the US. If RIM does not launch there new product properly in 2013 they will be gone also. What will Canada be left with? I guess over priced housing that nobody can afford. Wake up Canada!

- 70% of CDN living pay cheque to pay cheque and have no savings and over 70% have no pensions

- 60% of boomers 60 years and older entering retirement in a shit load of debt. Also, a lot of these boomer fools co-signed for their kids $800,000 Mc Mansions. The banksters will wipe the floor clean with both the kids and parents after this 50% RE Crash when they both lose there homes!

- empty condos being built everywhere and will be going for 50% off soon. HGTV Virgins will be crushed!!! Many HGTV Virgins are going bankrupt at Trump Towers right now in Toronto, what happened to RE only goes up? Remember Toronto was going to be the next New York or London. Yes HGTV Virgins you drank the RE Kool Aid from your used car saleperson (RE AGENT).

- empty homes all over the MLS, can you say power of sales have started, soon 50% off will be coming to Canada.

- for lease signs everywhere in business districts and commercial areas, I guess business has moved out of Canada.

- Canadians are 164 percent in debt! More than the US, Ireland, Spain , and UK when they had there RE Crash.

- Over 8 months of dropping RE sales. Next thing to drop will be prices by 50%.

- over 70% of mortgages in Canada are 5% or 0 down CHMC mortgages. Can you say high risk and backed by the taxpayer. When this baby blows up kiss your social services good bye. This is what the in action plan looks like. We supported our banks with free taxpayer dollars to give out loans to people with no money creating a RE ponzi scheme 10 times bigger than the US, Spain, Ireland etc. Even your hero Carnival Carney who left interest rates at 1% is bailing on Canada to go to London as he knows this crash will be of epic porpotions due to is 1% rates and you treat this guy like a rock star. Also the CON gov’t was involved by giving FREE money to all HGTV virgins with a heart beat aka O down, 5% down, 40 yr, then 35 yr then 30 yr and now 25 yr. Can you yell out PONZI Scheme. Greatest transfer of wealth from the middle class to the Elite aka bankers.

- And remember a home is only worth what a buyer will pay.

- the realtards, brokers, gov’t, banks and builders are in full out panic.

The 50% crash is here my virgins. Get out there and start low balling as the time is now for your revenge. Don’t sign up for bank slavery like the other 70% of the virgins in Canada. They are screwed for life now as they were sold the Koolaid by the RE industry!

Garth thank you also for the great public service and warning all these HGTV virgins.

The Facts are the Facts! Read & Learn my HGTV Virgins. Everyone knows there are tough times coming except you!!!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/why-housing-prices-arent-coming-back/article6929120/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/european-business/german-and-spanish-jobs-to-have-and-have-not/article6928411/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/canadas-housing-hangover-real-estate-boom-meet-dot-com-crash/article6867321/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/new-listings-sales-down-as-vancouver-residential-market-cools/article6900711/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/ottawas-800-billion-housing-problem/article6732755/

#58 S to da Izzo on 01.04.13 at 12:29 am

Hi Garth. Long time reader, first time poster.
I am 40 years old and not the average home buyer. I bought in Victoria in 2008 at very near the top of the market; however, I put over 30% down on my house. My fear is when I am ready to sell my house, a paradigm shift of belief will change with the generation behind me (which will be the ones who purchase my house) will not put the importance of owning a home like my generation does. Making it difficult to sell at that time. Is this fear valid? Also, to extrapolate the idea of baby boomers and their homes… a large portion of them will or already do own vacation homes. Will there in turn be a glut of vacation homes that will be on the cheap in 20 years because the boomers will either be dead or unable to hang on to that real estate? Please advise.

#59 renters rule on 01.04.13 at 12:29 am

@#14 Olivier

Great post, totally agree.

Montreal people R-O-C-K!!

xx

#60 Edmonton to Halifax on 01.04.13 at 12:33 am

I recently moved from Edmonton to Halifax. The realtors we spoke to told us to get in now because the ship building contracts are going to cause home prices to shoot through the roof. LOL!!!! I smiled and nodded before reminding them I was interested in a rental. The signs of speculation are everywhere here. There are at least a dozen new 6 story condo buildings in different stages of construction within a stone’s throw from my house. There is also a huge infill condo project moving ahead on the shore in Dartmouth. I have this feeling that those “once in a lifetime” opportunity condo buildings will end up just as empty as the Century Park condos in Edmonton. Two people I work with will be re-listing in the spring “when it picks up again.” I hope for their sake, they can unload their properties, but I am not betting on it. I expect Halifax to get hit worse than Edmonton by the RE reckoning. Although I wouldn’t buy in either city right now, I’ll pick the oil savior over the ships savior any day.

#61 renters rule on 01.04.13 at 12:51 am

@#44 From Mississauga With Love

I, for one, would like to give YOU the finger.

#62 Hoof - Hearted on 01.04.13 at 1:03 am

Dr Wayne…

If Not Fiirsszzzt ……nor Tiiirdd.. you are “Mike 2nd Hunt”

#63 Fed-up on 01.04.13 at 1:16 am

@#44 From Mississauga With Love
————————————————

Yes whenever I’m in Rome, London or Paris and just mention places like Mississauga, Oakville and Burlington, the people in these cities just cower in inferiority. Or is that compassion and pity for those that live there? Hmmmmmmmm…

#64 Canadian economy in trouble on 01.04.13 at 1:18 am

With 70% of Canadians already maxed out on debt and having trouble paying their mortgage is it any wonder why retail sales are down? I noticed this year Christmas shopping was very easy as the malls were half empty. The economic downturn from the unwinding of the credit bubble is going to be painful.

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1310291–some-retailers-report-sluggish-sales-in-december

#65 mark on 01.04.13 at 1:30 am

No shame at the Vancouver Sun, don’t report on what’s actually happening, report on what some realtor goons SAY is happening.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Metro+Vancouver+suburbs+continue+attract+home+buyers+slow/7773217/story.html

#66 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.04.13 at 1:41 am

-
“So how do you smear some lipstick on this pig?” — Become a confidence (trickster) man! Anyone can sell, just have to line up some Property Virgins to listen to the schtick!
*
#23 Furst and #41 Ralph Cramdown — Well done both of you!Artistic prose if I ever saw it, so keep up the good work!
*
Supermarket boss Food prices flying higher; US – IMF “You flog those slaves harder until they find that eleventh marble! — Gree D. Phuquer”; wrh.com; 4:40 clip Overtime pays well; Contraction / Expansion aka hell; Loan Sharks Payday lenders are having a field day; Average Home Prices in UK; Daft Propaganda Comes directly from the Politburo in Brussels, and Euros discarded in Greece (some success); Walmart ‘Owzaboud letting these chaps run the economy? They’re having great profits at WM; Safety Deposit Boxes? Apparently not; Spain; BBQ’d SPAM and Peanut Butter; Apple and Bond Bubbles One is, the other isn’t; Violent Turn for the US$; Boeing Orders up; 2:24:19 doc. Offshore tax havens bankrupting the US; Fiscal Cliff US$41 in expenses for US$1 in cuts.
*
Smoking Man – Roger Waters interview; 8:45 clip New Year’s Eve in Dubai; JFK and EO1110 Further info.; Gun Owners mad as hell and not going to take it anymore; Caesarean Birth Baby holds doc’s finger; Nutbar City Limits But there is no cure for stupidity; On a Tear Most people are fairly normal, but a few require a brain transplant; Aristotle You have beautiful thighs; Stuff a bus? Not quite; Assassinations It’s easier for the FBI to knock off the OWS leaders; Russia, China and India Frozen; US Generals The US needs to leave the MEast (but they aren’t politicos); Giant Geysers Great. Now the universe is acting up; 6:12 clip Man builds Stonehenge by himself; 2013 The female side moves up, Andromeda Some of its galaxies are out to lunch as well; Beer Expurt So much for xpertz.

#67 neo on 01.04.13 at 1:48 am

“This will mark the ninth consecutive month of sales declines in the GTA which, apparently, has not happened before. Unless the laws of economics don’t apply to this market of six million people, lower prices will follow.”

Garth,

Instead of saying “apparently” please have a look at TREB stats. Your thesis of consecutive sales declines followed by price declines in the GTA are FALSE. I have said this many times but please look up TREB GTA sales data from May 2010 to May 2011. You will discover sales declined 12 MONTHS IN A ROW. What happened next? Sales declines stopped in June and prices continued up. Whatever is going to bring prices down isn’t going to be consecutive sales drops.

#68 Derek R on 01.04.13 at 1:55 am

#41 Ralph Cramdown on 01.03.13 at 11:36 pm

I don’t care about Dr Wayne or the Firsters one way or the other but I loved that. Very funny. Cheers!

#69 Dr. WAYNE on 01.04.13 at 2:04 am

#57 Furst on 01.04.13 at 12:24 am

Angry yet?

=================

Never …

“Anger dwells only in the bosom of fools.”
Albert Einstein

TRANSLATION: fools = Fursts

#70 Smartalox on 01.04.13 at 2:04 am

So the BC Assessment numbers were published today, so I decided to calculate the price to rent ratio for my place.

The answer? 25!

For those of you wondering, a price to rent ratio of 15 to 16 usually signals a buy.

#71 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.04.13 at 2:22 am

#226 Form Man on 01.03.13 at 8:56 pm
#222 DA

perhaps these sellers with ‘lofty’ expectations are trapped underwater on their mortgages and cannot lower their price ………….

I don’t deny there are such. But what you must consider is that by then they know their fate and their ONLY motivation is to postpone the inevitable as long as possible. They have ABSOLUTELY NO MOTIVATION TO SELL and they hope the foreclosure process thereafter takes as long as possible.

Surely you must understand that Form Man?!?

#72 Finally on 01.04.13 at 2:22 am

Waiting to buy early 2014.

#73 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.04.13 at 2:24 am

A paltry 1,142 sales last month, down 31.1% from the previous December. Ouch.
Sales crashed 32% from November. Yes, this past November.
Sales for all of 2012 – which included the frenzy last Spring which I told you at the time was the market top – crashed 23% from 2011, and were 25.7% below the ten-year average.
The average detached home in Van has lost 1% of its value every month since June.
Listings (as I told you yesterday) are plunging. Shell-shocked sellers have retreated from the market, and are desperately hoping there will be a spring revival. And Jesus is coming.

-Garth

For a man who says he isn’t forecasting a ‘Crash’ you sure do use the word a lot.

No forecast there. — Garth

#74 Cowpie on 01.04.13 at 2:26 am

“#9 Looking For a Home on 01.03.13 at 10:00 pm
Waiting for spring.”

Er – house purchase in 2013? As an investment strategy???Well, where you live, if you see blood in the streets this spring… by all means go out and get yourself a McMansion. Otherwise, review Garth’s posts carefully. Make notes.

Anyone else here (who is not a realtor) that thinks home buying this spring makes good financial sense, please raise your hands.

Garth, reading that post made me appreciate how patient you must be. WE (blog dogs) ARE listening attentively and appreciate your help. Looking for a Home must be…new? or a REALTOR…

#75 Grantmi on 01.04.13 at 2:37 am

Holy shat… Fraser Valley Realestate in the BPOE just got
kicked in the nuts!!! http://bit.ly/RvYvaT

Cue the Black Knight “I’m not dead yet! It’s just a flesh wound!!” http://bit.ly/RvYvaT

#76 Buy? Curious? on 01.04.13 at 3:43 am

The Edmonton Sun advertises indoor go-karting on its front page? *sigh* What a fun way to kill some time by hanging inside with gas fumes. Can we bring are kids too?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVY7HDMg9zs

Garth, when are you going to publish some of the hate-mail?

#77 six-figure-renter on 01.04.13 at 4:18 am

DELETED

#78 Ayn Rand Army on 01.04.13 at 4:43 am

#83 Just sayin’ on 01.03.13 at 1:00 am

DELETED. This thread is finished. — Garth

#79 Mixed Bag on 01.04.13 at 5:56 am

I realized tonight, that each evening, after Garth posts, he sits at his computer and moderates and approves the comments, often until past midnight. I assume it’s Garth who does his own moderating. That is dedication.

#80 VMD on 01.04.13 at 6:14 am

Battle of Vancouver: SFH Front – Dec/12 Map update complete
http://greaterfoolvancouver.blogspot.ca/2013/01/battle-of-vancouver-sfh-dec-2012.html

- As predicted in November, Bear Forces successfully invaded North Vancouver and Burnaby East
- Bear Forces also liberated Burnaby North and Tsawwassen.
- Bear Forces had a major tank build-up in South Surrey/White Rock
- The following Bull Territories are facing imminent defeat: Van East & Burnaby South.

#81 Aussie Roy on 01.04.13 at 7:06 am

Aussie Update

Commentaries on the credit bubble of 2003-2007 routinely equate it with earlier episodes like the Internet boom.
While credits were over-priced like Internet stocks a decade before, we show, using a model based on disagreement and short-sales constraints, that this is where the similarity ends.
Equity bubbles are loud: price and volume go together as investors speculate on capital gains from reselling to more optimistic investors.
But this resale option is limited for debt since its upside payoff is bounded.

Debt bubbles then require an optimism bias among investors. But greater optimism leads to less speculative trading as investors view the debt as safe and having limited upside. Debt bubbles are hence quiet—high price comes with low volume. We find the predicted price-volume relationship of credits over the
2003-2007 credit boom.

Harrison Hong
Department of Economics
Princeton University

http://papers.nber.org/tmp/15523-w18547.pdf

When all else fails call in astrologist Elizabeth Ball for a forward look at what’s in store for the Aussie housing market

The 2013 property market is dominated by two planets – Jupiter and Saturn.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/realestate/investing/its-written-in-the-stars-for-2013/story-fndboir2-1226538122176

It’s written in the stars for 2013

#82 betamax on 01.04.13 at 7:18 am

Just talked to a GVRD realtor, and he said he’s “still making money”, while other realtors he knows have seen their sales volume drop in half.

A 50% drop in sales is larger than the published average, but it might be due to his group relying on move-up sales, and that market is toast.

I know the guy well enough to know that he needs to make about $150k per year just to cover all his bills — advertising, office, assistant, leased BMW, etc. And if he says he’s just “making money”, it means he’s probably running at a loss already.

I’ve never envied him the money he’s made in the last several years, as I always knew it wouldn’t last. Even if there isn’t a hard landing (there will be), his business model is predicated on a boom that never ends — and they always do.

He already exhausted his savings during the summer slump, so he’ll likely HELOC his house to keep his business afloat while he prays for another boom. I wonder what’ll happen when he exhausts his credit while waiting for the bubble to return.

This guy’s in his fifties, with no pension and no skills to ever again make a bubble-inflated income like the one he’s enjoyed recently. He even joked about working till age 70, but health issues will likely sideline him long before then.

And have you ever seen a successful older realtor? Not often, because sales is a game in which appearance counts, and most people want to hire an energetic, good-looking realtor — which is precisely why they’re always plastering their pictures on all their advertising.

The last decade was a great time to be a realtor. The next decade or two will be a terrible time to be a realtor, and no realtor then will accuse others of jealousy, unless they’re trying to get a laugh.

#83 Freedom First on 01.04.13 at 7:29 am

Really enjoyed your post today Garth. As well as the posts by all the blog dogs, the serious posters, as well as the kiddies section, as I enjoy them too….they make me smile:)

It is nice to be living in balance ,liquidity, and diversity, as well as being debt free. I have owned 2 RE properties, but never been out of line with your formula for diversity Garth. My RE increased so much, I had to sell. It is only a building, a place to live, and easily replaceable. Money and emotions do not belong in financial affairs. Avoid a woman susceptible to this thinking. It will bankrupt you. And this was before discovering your “blog of facts and truth. It looked insane to me too, otherwise. I have always know that “Debt is not wealth, never has been, and never will be. Every high profile successful investor believes this. Just Google Warren Buffett on debt. There is an abundance of examples. Explains my belief too. I carry no debt, and have never carried a size of debt outside of Garth’s debt parameters. Keep in mind, I have no desire to inflict financial suicide on myself. Once again, emotion have no place in any financial dealings. Strictly facts and figures.

#84 phinny on 01.04.13 at 7:42 am

Staying with folks in Horse Country, Ontario. Some neighbours have had their properties for sale for a year or more. They say they’re in no rush… but that hides that fact, I think, that they’re ‘not quite ready to retire’ and the house and pasture is a big part of their retirement.

Another craziness was I was looking at purchasing an acre of land in the area for my little contracting business, and of course choked at the cost… The Old Man mentioned something about ‘needing to own land here to get your business expanding’.

As it turns out, I was able to rent a half-acre, with a seacan shop (lights, power …etc) 16 minutes from the downtown for 200 dollars per month.

#85 Darlene on 01.04.13 at 8:02 am

If anyone is interested, here’s CIBC’s Canadian Cities: An Economic Snapshot

Canadian Cities: An Economic Snapshot

#86 Darlene on 01.04.13 at 8:03 am

OOps here’s the link

http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/metro_monitor.pdf

#87 Westcdn on 01.04.13 at 8:08 am

Hmmm,
The Cdn real estate news is getting uglier. Plus, it looks like the 30 year decline in interest rates and the correlated housing boom is over. Since I think the Alberta market will be one of the last to roll over, I will stand by my guess that my home value will only suffer a 5% haircut in 2013 but I fear that is only the beginning of a ride down. I can’t disagree with a previous poster who said roughly “an American who earns $15 an hour can now afford a nice home”. That statement creates bad feelings in me about the Cdn economic future and real estate values. The other news that caught my attention was the released US Fed minutes where the utility of QE was questioned. I wondered why they would let that cat out of the bag (this is when I put on my tin hat).
I believe the US Fed serves the banks and Wall Street before Main Street. I further believe the banks and Wall Street are of the same cabal but hedge funds are independent mercenaries. In addition, the cabal acts as a screen/protector of the 1% and has bought most of the congress members (being a millionaire appears to be a prerequisite in the US to be a congressman or senator since it creates a vested interest in the status quo?). There is no question in my mind that if QE is cancelled, we will go into an economic depression because I believe QE indirectly finances most of the US government deficit. I also know from experience that it is harder to keep wealth than earn/gain it and I am pretty sure the 1% has the same problem. The 1%’s will fight sharing the afflictions of the 99% and therefore want to keep the status quo. So the 1% will want to keep asset values up and get their “economic rent”. The 1% also considers the other 99% as the payers (slaves) of the US public and private debt (besides, at this time I doubt that even if we confiscated all the wealth of the 1%, it still would not be enough to eliminate the current government debt and the unfunded public liabilities)
I speculate the US Fed is worried that its ability to serve the 1%, through funding the US deficit with QE and its goal of maintaining the debt game, is limited. I guess they are signalling to their US government agents (congress and senate) that the unfunded liabilities need to be dealt with which means put a lid on “entitlements”. There is no plan or intent to pay off the government debt, it is meant to be rolled over and served for eternity. Therefore, I conclude it is important not to depend on government largesse and the fix is in to extract money from me. My problem is that I have no guarantee my personal resources are sufficient. My future will be uncertain and the poorhouse will always be lurking behind me (those over 60 with defined benefit pension plans can start high fiving now).
So being a natural introvert and contrarian, I place my bets on corporations I believe are run by honourable people despite the headwinds of a rigged market and the sociopaths that exist above me. I need the internet to get ideas and what I write is consists largely of other people’s thoughts with my own spin of personal experience. My favourite blog site on the US equity markets is @ http://www.ibankcoin.com
This blog and ibankcoin have edges which keep my wits sharp. (ps. it looks like gold is on its way to $1400, if it does, likely the time to back up the truck and buy)
Adios

#88 The Man From Nantucket on 01.04.13 at 9:06 am

#66 Canadian economy in trouble on 01.04.13 at 1:18 am
………..I noticed this year Christmas shopping was very easy as the malls were half empty.

There’s this fantastic thing called the Internet, and one of it’s cool features is that you can make purchases from the comfort of your own home without having to walk the aisles of the local big box with the throng of the unwashed masses.

You should check it out sometime!

I think a large part of the reason the stores looked dead is that we’ve finally passed an inflection point in online sales versus bricks and mortar sales.

You have a point that excess debt, and a crappy economy is forcing austerity, but folks have always splurged on Christmas despite not being able to afford the January Visa bill.

I’m speculating that there are other possibly bigger factors.

#89 live within your means on 01.04.13 at 9:49 am

An old g’friend in Mtl. has a beautiful, modern 3 br condo in a really nice area in the Plateau, large balcony & 1 outdoor parking space, but only 1 large 4 piece bthrm, which she renovated a few yrs ago. Her 3 kids have flown the nest. She was asking $500K about 8 mos ago. She’s reduced the price but no nibbles so is considering using DuProprio which will cost her $1K max. She’ll do the showings. Apparently she’d save a $25K commission. Her sis says she’ll have to reduce the condo fees of $250. a mo. Is that even possible????

#90 blase on 01.04.13 at 10:03 am

Flight from bonds, flight from T-bills, flight from gold and silver. The fed is taking it’s finger off the printing presses.

A friend is living in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Works at a “facility” for delinquent teens, making abou $14/hour.

Problem? Not hardly. It’s enough to lease a new Mazda M5, and to buy a 3-bedroom house with garage, yard, walk to grocery, shops, great pubs, about $120,000.

He said they are dying for workers down there, big Wal-Mart regional distribution center, health care workers, penitentiaries, high tech, etc. Lots of places hiring.

Canada is on the wrong side of the pendulum and will be for some time. Time for a recession, HST revenues, cost of borrowing to go up, and a huge bucket of cold water to the faces of millions of honey-boo-boo and NHL fans across the country. Time to get ye head out of ye arses.

#91 Dr. WAYNE on 01.04.13 at 10:03 am

#49 Smoking Man on 01.04.13 at 12:02 am

I’m a fan, altho I am too self absorbed and ego centered to read your shit or anyone else s, I have picked up on some chirps your way and that’s a good thing with this crowed……

You can’t bend what you cant offend…….

==================

Hey … you’re welcome. But you really should bone up on your spelling. Your last words should go down for posterity. However, given responses, there ‘should’ be one hell of a lot of ‘bending’.

#92 DA why don't you mention all the foreclosures in Kelowna too! on 01.04.13 at 10:17 am

#75 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 01.04.13 at 2:24 am

Now DA…are you going man up here and accept the challenge below or just cower and slink off into the morass you call your ethics.

Here’s the challenge in case you forgot:

“Here’s a challenge for you DA since you’re telling us how healthy the Kelowna real estate market is, why don’t you also tell us the total number of million dollar houses that have fallen into foreclosure from the time they were first listed. Say within the last year to keep the number manageable …. remember to be honest and ethical its part of your New Years resolutions.”

You know DA we’re starting to hold you to higher standards … so far your not living up to your New Years resolution…but there is time for you to recover. I’m sure you can do it.

#93 From Mississauga with Love on 01.04.13 at 10:29 am

Garth and side kicks, you miss my point.
Yes, Garth you did point out YoY comparison, but my point was that you were claiming the real estate boards were trying to “twist” the viewpoint given the stats. What I am telling you is that you’er doing the same. While you did use YoY stats, you harp on spring to date decline (a useless point), and focus on the decline in sales volume. While the decline in sales volume is legitimate, what matters to people (not to real estate agents) is the decline in price. Yes, theoretically price declines are supposed to follow volume declines, but that has not happened yet, at least in the GTA (I have no knowledge of the Vancouver market).
Now, you say, be patient, it will happen. In theory, I agree, but I would like to remind you that a couple of years ago, we did go through the exact same sales volume decline, but it eventually recovered and price did not follow. You never know what happens.
People are stubborn and it is difficult to convince a homeowner to sell for less than what his neighbour sold for. He’d get offended. It takes time, if it ever happens. Americans are different than Canadians, more dynamic.
And to those that attacked me personally with no logical argument, I did not say anything about Paris or London. Mississauga, as a matter of fact the entire GTA, is nothing compared to those cities, of course. But who brought that argument up? Not me.

#94 Canadians Maxed OUT on 01.04.13 at 10:39 am

I have to repost this one. Interest times is bangs on. It isn’t any wonder why realtors are running to this blog to kick and scream.

Interesting Times on 01.04.13 at 12:27 am
A very hard landing is coming for many, make sure you protect yourself and family! The 50% RE Crash is coming quickly and you better have at least 6 months to 1 year salary on hand to ride out this crash if you are a victim of this Ponzi Scheme.

HGTV Virgins get out there and start low balling these realtards by 50%. Don’t waste your time going to open houses when you could just sit on the MLS and low ball these used car salespeople by email. Get out there and get your revenge. Show them that you are not as stupid as the show protrays you!

- Europe already in recession/depression, Japan and US right behind them. This will have a negative feed back loop across the global economy.

- jobs being lost everywhere and the Canadian economy is slowing down. Watch BNN and learn about the layoffs happening everyday or just read the business section it is all there for you my virgins. Educate yourself! To bad many of you just read the life, sports and entertainment section and don’t educate yourselves.

- austerity starting already in Canada. Many in government jobs will be bye, bye. Federal gov’t firing 20,000 alone in Canada. All gov’t jobs under attack.

- manufacturing jobs have moved to Asia and back to the USA. Canadians can’t compete with the New America where the factory worker now makes $12.00 to $15.00 an hour and can buy a nice home for $100,000-$200,000K. You are so screwed in Canada! Latest victim is GM Canada who will be closing the Camaro Plant in Oshawa & moving it back to the US. If RIM does not launch there new product properly in 2013 they will be gone also. What will Canada be left with? I guess over priced housing that nobody can afford. Wake up Canada!

- 70% of CDN living pay cheque to pay cheque and have no savings and over 70% have no pensions

- 60% of boomers 60 years and older entering retirement in a shit load of debt. Also, a lot of these boomer fools co-signed for their kids $800,000 Mc Mansions. The banksters will wipe the floor clean with both the kids and parents after this 50% RE Crash when they both lose there homes!

- empty condos being built everywhere and will be going for 50% off soon. HGTV Virgins will be crushed!!! Many HGTV Virgins are going bankrupt at Trump Towers right now in Toronto, what happened to RE only goes up? Remember Toronto was going to be the next New York or London. Yes HGTV Virgins you drank the RE Kool Aid from your used car saleperson (RE AGENT).

- empty homes all over the MLS, can you say power of sales have started, soon 50% off will be coming to Canada.

- for lease signs everywhere in business districts and commercial areas, I guess business has moved out of Canada.

- Canadians are 164 percent in debt! More than the US, Ireland, Spain , and UK when they had there RE Crash.

- Over 8 months of dropping RE sales. Next thing to drop will be prices by 50%.

- over 70% of mortgages in Canada are 5% or 0 down CHMC mortgages. Can you say high risk and backed by the taxpayer. When this baby blows up kiss your social services good bye. This is what the in action plan looks like. We supported our banks with free taxpayer dollars to give out loans to people with no money creating a RE ponzi scheme 10 times bigger than the US, Spain, Ireland etc. Even your hero Carnival Carney who left interest rates at 1% is bailing on Canada to go to London as he knows this crash will be of epic porpotions due to is 1% rates and you treat this guy like a rock star. Also the CON gov’t was involved by giving FREE money to all HGTV virgins with a heart beat aka O down, 5% down, 40 yr, then 35 yr then 30 yr and now 25 yr. Can you yell out PONZI Scheme. Greatest transfer of wealth from the middle class to the Elite aka bankers.

- And remember a home is only worth what a buyer will pay.

- the realtards, brokers, gov’t, banks and builders are in full out panic.

The 50% crash is here my virgins. Get out there and start low balling as the time is now for your revenge. Don’t sign up for bank slavery like the other 70% of the virgins in Canada. They are screwed for life now as they were sold the Koolaid by the RE industry!

Garth thank you also for the great public service and warning all these HGTV virgins.

The Facts are the Facts! Read & Learn my HGTV Virgins. Everyone knows there are tough times coming except you!!!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/why-housing-prices-arent-coming-back/article6929120/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/european-business/german-and-spanish-jobs-to-have-and-have-not/article6928411/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/canadas-housing-hangover-real-estate-boom-meet-dot-com-crash/article6867321/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/new-listings-sales-down-as-vancouver-residential-market-cools/article6900711/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/ottawas-800-billion-housing-problem/article6732755/

#95 live within your means on 01.04.13 at 10:56 am

#90 The Man From Nantucket on 01.04.13 at 9:06 am

There’s this fantastic thing called the Internet, and one of it’s cool features is that you can make purchases from the comfort of your own home without having to walk the aisles of the local big box with the throng of the unwashed masses.

You should check it out sometime!

I think a large part of the reason the stores looked dead is that we’ve finally passed an inflection point in online sales versus bricks and mortar sales.

You have a point that excess debt, and a crappy economy is forcing austerity, but folks have always splurged on Christmas despite not being able to afford the January Visa bill.

I’m speculating that there are other possibly bigger factors.
……………………
I ordered one item for myself (really the household) for Xmas on the net. It arrived Xmas eve. tho I had ordered it Dec. 6 on a Cdn site. I tracked it and it actually was shipped from California. I guess the Cdn. site was out of stock.

Hubby’s gift from me was a bottle of Glenmorangie – his favourite Scotch. He bought me (us really) some chocolates. If either of us really needs/wants something we buy it, but look for a good deal. Anything charged on Visa is fully paid off by the due date.

My eldest sis is the total opposite – she’s a total shopaholic – she gets a high from it – but the high doesn’t last long. She buys so much stuff & then gives 1/4 away – some v. expensive shoes & clothes she’s hardly worn.

Yesterday she told me she has so many Xmas decorations (in the attic) that she paid $40 for a single Xmas tree decoration. She used to do theme Xmas trees. As her attic is difficult to access & it’s really cold before Xmas. she’d buy new ones. Also contemplated buying new bedspreads, curtains, etc. for their bedroom. She has 2 beautiful sets – 1 winter & 1 summer which are only 1 – 2 yrs old. I was disgusted, tried to talk some sense into her – she’ll be 70 in June, her hubby 72.

When I call and she’s not home, her hubby says – she’s out pumping up the economy. He’s not that much better than she. They have separate bank accts. but share car expenses, etc.

Pardon the rant. I dearly love her, but just get so upset w/her as I know she uses a LOC & doesn’t pay off her Visa bills. She spends hours each week figuring out her ‘so called’ budget. A mutual friend gave up on saying anything to her a long time ago.

#96 EIT on 01.04.13 at 10:57 am

PM are being manipulated. (but we’ve know this for some time.)

“The bullion banks typically need only a minute — as their algorithms quickly trade tens of thousands of Comex futures contracts —in order to induce a dramatic shakeout of weak long positions.”

Garth, thank god for PM’s going down right? Now these banks can relax a bit on their high-frequency scheming! They can now focus on committing fraud elsewhere.

With all the mayhem, why wouldn’t investors stay on the sidelines (John Galt-ing). Ever hear of the guy who aniticipated WW1 and found the most remote place in the world to live. (It was near enough to the equator as I recall, no polar bears)

Talk about con-fidence, NO?

#97 LaughingCon on 01.04.13 at 10:58 am

Smoking Man,
Did you miss me. Guess what – I am back

TREB report is out and in 416:

SFH sales – 491 (581 in 2011) – down 15.5%
Semis sales – 129 (202 in 2011) – down 36.1%
Towns sales – 154 (199 in 2011) – down 22.6%
Condo sales – 680 (943 in 2011) – down 27.9%

Footnotes:
Dec.2012 – Serving over 35,000 Members in GTA…
Dec.2011 – Serving over 31,000 Members in GTA…
Realtors numbers in GTA – UP 12.9% YOY

It is going to be a nasty crash realtors, a nasty crash!!!

#98 Franke le skank on 01.04.13 at 11:12 am

DELETED

#99 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.04.13 at 11:30 am

The problem with the economy today is that it is the economy which is the business rather than the businesses striving within it. Seems to me that so many are preoccupied with and speculating on the direction the general economy is, they think, likely to take rather than focusing on their own importance as a cog in that great wheel that the mechanics of it are failing.

And then there’s the Internet. Don’t get me wrong the Internet is a wonderful thing but not nearly so much as what so many believe. The Internet isn’t going to sell you house. You can be Linkedin, you can Tweet, you can be Facebooked until you’re blue in the face, you can List on Craigslist, YouTube all you want, none of that is going to make your home sell faster or for more money if you’re not priced right to begin with.

But we’ve become obsessed with the Internet believing it provides all the answers. From self diagnosis of ones own health to the economy everybody’s an expert in most everything. A little bit of knowledge can be a dangerous thing. Multiply that by millions upon millions of like minded apparent “know-it-alls” foraying outside their own field of expertise and it’s bound to have significant backfire.

#100 Rene on 01.04.13 at 11:34 am

I’m guessing Dr Wayne is a proctologist. Only he can spot a true @$$hole.

#101 Snowboid on 01.04.13 at 11:37 am

#23 Marko Juras on 01.03.13 at 10:36 pm…

This post is not worthy of your intelligence, as I believe you are a good agent and part of the trend towards value realtors. In fact it was your company that sold our Victoria ‘mini-McMansion’ in 2010.

Of course you already know the answers to your ‘questions’ – with your figures it made sense to buy, although I wouldn’t count on the 2.25% interest rate for too long.

Strata fees and taxes seem reasonable, but didn’t you once say your unit was 500 sq ft? I guess that’s fine for a single person, but just went out to our garage and tried to picture living in that space – I don’t think it would work too long for couples, although we did live for awhile in something smaller in Japan.

In the years we lived in Victoria we also came to realize that any condo there, new or old, was and is a risky proposition.

I would plan on selling when the market rebounds in early 2018.

#102 Hoof - Hearted on 01.04.13 at 11:44 am

#49 Smoking Man on 01.04.13 at 12:02 am

I’m a fan, altho I am too self absorbed and ego centered to read your shit or anyone else s, I have picked up on some chirps your way and that’s a good thing with this crowed……

You can’t bend what you cant offend…….

============================

Ya….. but what about you’ve fallen and can’t get up?

#103 Dupcheck on 01.04.13 at 11:46 am

Garth, thank you for never getting tired of keeping this blog alive. Good work.

#104 Alberta Ed on 01.04.13 at 11:52 am

Wait! I just heard a ReMax realtor on CBC Radio say he has “great confidence” in the BC market.

#105 NoOneOfConsequence on 01.04.13 at 11:55 am

The declines we are seeing now are going to end up in a nasty feedback loop.
With a little digging you can find out how much of each province’s GDP comes from real estate construction.
I’ll save you the effort…its approximately 20%.
With 1/5 of GDP dependent upon construction…falling sales and values does not bode well at all for our collective future.
So while I appreciate Garth’s work here….after looking at economic drivers across Canada…I find these real estate figures a little alarming.
You might think you are going to buy after the crash…but will you still have a job?

#106 Sacola FNC on 01.04.13 at 12:04 pm

This is Devils Advocate. I know because he often posts on Castanet debates (an Okanagan chat forum) under Devils Advocate. No surprise, he is a Realtor.

http://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-85358-906-.htm#85358

#107 Franke le skank on 01.04.13 at 12:05 pm

#95 From Mississauga with Love on 01.04.13 at 10:29 am
The reason that prices did not follow the decline in sales a few years ago is because SOMEONE intervened and changed the rules to open up the market to buyers.

#96 Canadians Maxed OUT on 01.04.13 at 10:39 am
Do you know how many times this has been re-posted?

#108 Holy Crap Wheres the Tylenol on 01.04.13 at 12:09 pm

http://dcnonl.com/nw/32907/cb
Interesting read.

Very confusing times Job report USA for Dec up, Canada up, gold down, silver flat, oil down. Housing results above link speak for themselves. This is just the beginning? Dorothy has just thrown water on it all as she watches the Wicked Witch melt!

Wicked Witch of the West: You cursed brat! Look what you’ve done! I’m melting! melting! Oh, what a world! What a world! Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness? Oooooh, look out! I’m going! Oooooh! Ooooooh!

#109 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.04.13 at 12:11 pm

Not that I have much faith in the accuracy of the BC Assessment Authorities assessments…

http://www.castanet.net/news/South-Okanagan/85379/How-much-will-your-home-be-assessed

http://www.castanet.net/news/Vernon/85378/Property-values-remain-stable

#110 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.04.13 at 12:12 pm

Authority’s

#111 Chris on 01.04.13 at 12:13 pm

Edmonton property values have apparently risen 1%…. So not even keeping up with inflation.

#112 Living in AB on 01.04.13 at 12:16 pm

I live in Edmonton and I can tell you one thing….this is boom town baby…..if you don’t invest in realesate or drive a F350 (with atleast a 10inch kit) you’re a loser. We’re different here!

#113 Jimmy on 01.04.13 at 12:16 pm

Boy Garth you sure do like to cherry-pick your stats. Sales down means nothing when prices are up! Your housing decline is always around the next corner, never quite there yet, stay tuned folks… You keep neglecting the fact that although sales are down, there is no pressure for owners to sell. Mortgage rates are stuck at rock bottom, so why do the boomers have to rush out and unload their homes? Everyone is just sitting tight. As long as the economy is growing, albeit slowly, and money is cheap there is no force driving a significant downturn in prices. I fear for your reputation when the mob of renters realizes that the emperor has no clothes.

There are bigger things for you to worry about than my rep. — Garth

#114 Tony on 01.04.13 at 12:17 pm

Condominiums in Edmonton are lower year over year and many are still selling at less than 50 percent of peak 2007 valuations.

#115 Ronaldo on 01.04.13 at 12:23 pm

#29 Young and Foolish – answer: the downpayment on an overpriced condo in Toronto with money given to you buy your parents.

#116 Tony on 01.04.13 at 12:29 pm

Re: #89 Westcdn on 01.04.13 at 8:08 am

QE is akin to smoke seven mirrors and voodoo science. It accomplishes absolutely nothing. The public is finally figuring it out and the Fed knows it. Thus the change in plans.

#117 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 01.04.13 at 12:30 pm

@#169 DON 1/03/13
Your statement

“Cherry picking the facts, Check out the one article below. ”

Would be amusing if it wasnt so pathetic. I went point by point through Formman’s statement….
You, however, cherry picked one fact. Pot …Kettle.

Good to see you’re busy at work surfing the net.
Lift your head up from the screen for a second and have a look at the lineup of people in the lobby of you dept….Those are called customers….. They would like to recieve something called….. service……

Something, sadly, you and 99% of “civil” ( there’s an oxymoron if I ever heard one) servants know nothing about.

#118 Stoopid Idiot on 01.04.13 at 12:36 pm

It is safe to say that Ben Bernanke, his colleagues at the Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) and his fellow central bankers all over the world
are intimately familiar with this famous quote from John Maynard Keynes:
“There is no subtler, or surer means of overturning the existing basis of
society than to debase the currency. The process engages all the hidden
forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner
which only one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

The Fed’s latest party trick, announced on December 12, makes it even
clearer than it was before that modern central bankers rely completely on the
highlighted assertion from that quote. Their “legitimacy” depends on acting -
“in a manner which only one man in a million is able to diagnose.” Mr
Keynes was confident of his assertion too. The quote comes from The
Economic Consequences of the Peace, a book he published in 1919 after
having been appalled by the political debauchery surrounding the Versailles
“peace conference”. Seventeen years later in 1936, Mr Keynes published
another book which he titled The General Theory of Employment, Interest
and Money. That book, almost in its entirety, relied on Mr Keynes’ earlier
assertion that monetary debasement was a subject beyond the understanding
of the vast majority of people and therefore a safe means of preserving,
protecting and defending their subjugation to political “oversight”.
We deliberately left out the first sentence in Mr Keynes’ 1919 assertion. It
goes like this: “Lenin was certainly right”. He certainly was, concerning
the first part of the quote which followed. But he was NOT right about the
inability to diagnose currency debasement. If he had been, he would not
have seen himself forced to introduce his “New Economic Policy” (NEP)
only three years after he had won power in Russia with a coup.
Lenin called his new policy “State Capitalism”. Over the nine decades since
he introduced it, the policy has become global. Every nation practices it.
Every nation defends it. The differences between nations are merely of
degree. And above all, those in the seats of power in every nation depend
on their subjects being unable to understand what is being done to them.

~The Privateer

#119 Pr on 01.04.13 at 12:41 pm

91 live within your means
…so is considering using DuProprio which will cost her $1K max. She’ll do the showings. Apparently she’d save a $25K commission…

She will not save money on commission! She will lose in final prices reduction. As Most good buyers have a good agent working for them. The kind of buyers looking on rebate commission advertisaer are , most of the times: looking for deals, not on the ury at all, have a house to sell, looking for some kind of finacing with the buyers, low ball offer specialist, arnaqueur etc.

#120 Old Man on 01.04.13 at 12:43 pm

Now from experience when sales crash all activity comes to a halt; no buyers and no sellers; and no mortgage deals. It is tantamount of the calm before the storm when everyone waits for the next shoe to fall, and becomes a very depressing as nobody is making any money. Been there and seen this all before, as excitement quickly turns into despair.

#121 Silver on 01.04.13 at 12:43 pm

Sold… ohh so sold.

cash solvent… dept free…
curious feeling…

Now we will safely see what happens in Mr. Market… don’t care either way really.

I personally think the fireworks will be fun…
best luck to all…

Silver

#122 Ronaldo on 01.04.13 at 12:44 pm

#60 – S to Da Izzo

”Will there in turn be a glut of vacation homes that will be on the cheap in 20 years because the boomers will either be dead or unable to hang on to that real estate? Please advise.”

That will be coming much sooner than you think. In fact it’s already here. Just look at what is happening in the Okanagan. Those will be the first to go. No rush to buy. Long way to go yet.

#123 Smoking Man on 01.04.13 at 12:45 pm

99 LaughingCon

Of course sales are down from a record 2011 only screws Realtors.

But prices are up…. Did you see jobs report 30000k in the Ontario and cdn dollar going space shuttle.

Sorry dude bit longer for you in the basement. Lol

#124 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 01.04.13 at 12:50 pm

@#84 Betamax
Excellent observations.

#125 Tom from Mississuga on 01.04.13 at 12:53 pm

Since the Globe and Mail put in a paywall it is amazing how many negative real estate stories that get published, it’s daily now. They must be getting more revenue from subscribers like me than real estate advertisers now.

#126 Andrew on 01.04.13 at 1:08 pm

DA,

Man, do all realtors take the same SalesSpeak courses? I get the same baloney when I question the “Buy Now” bs on the local RE blogs here in Edmonton.

But,

House prices are too high – RE Agents know this.

Debt levels are too high-RE Agents know this.

If most people truly understood how much their houses are costing them, they would know they can’t afford it-RE Agents know this.

Commissions are collected when the sale is complete(agents motivation), but the Mortgage is a many year committment, which in the current economic climate, many people will likely find they cannot afford when things change (and they will change). -RE Agents know this.

So, I can concede that every rational statement you make, like all the others I hear from the agents here in Edmonton, has merit. You preach balance, and of course buy what you can afford etc..

But the message is still the same: BUY.

So I will emphasize again,

House prices are too and in far too many cases, buyers just can’t afford what they are buying and there will be consequences sooner or later.

In truth it’s a terrible time to buy-RE agents…
no, correction;

DA you know this.

#127 Stoopid Idiot on 01.04.13 at 1:12 pm

#89 Westcdn

Enjoyed your post… you may want to add to daily reading

http://www.jsmineset.com/

You may enjoy this post “Whaaaack” here

http://kliguy38depression2news.blogspot.com/

#128 Old Man on 01.04.13 at 1:17 pm

I found this interesting quote to ponder – ” It’s like deja vu all over again. ” – Yogi Berra. Garth warned all of you well ahead of time, but did you listen? Perhaps too horny for the pie in the sky which reminds me of a Reverend Ike in New York telling his flock – ” Never mind the pie in the sky when you die, as I want it now, so send me money. ”

Now if you want to know what is happening in the Real Estate / Mortgage market just phone a trusted friend in the business and ask him or her one question which is thus – have the phones stopped ringing? I say yes, and the silence will tell all what is about to come. For many who bought condos in the Toronto core during the past two years will go on the record that the Bell Tolls for Thee.

#129 jess on 01.04.13 at 1:20 pm

speaking of bull

Child-sized body armour sales soar
Colombian businessman Miguel Caballero has made bulletproof clothing for armies around the world for 20 years – now, he’s making childrenswear. He says he has received dozens of requests from anxious parents in the US since the school shooting in Newtown that killed 20 children in November. Duration: 00:32

#130 jess on 01.04.13 at 1:24 pm

“it’s what you can’t figure out that’s terrifying.”

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/01/whats-inside-americas-banks/309196/?single_page=true
Frank Partnoy is a law and finance professor at the University of San Diego and the author of Wait: The Art and Science of Delay. Jesse Eisinger is a senior reporter at ProPublica and a columnist for The New York Times’ Dealbook section.

#131 happy renter on 01.04.13 at 1:26 pm

People in Atlanta suburbs are paying $45,000-$60,000 for a newer house.7 eleven and Mcdonalds workers can afford a nice house.Give me a green card.

#132 DON on 01.04.13 at 1:53 pm

@ #116 Jimmy on 01.04.13 at 12:16 pm Boy Garth you sure do like to cherry-pick your stats. Sales down means nothing when prices are up! Your housing decline is always around the next corner, never quite there yet, stay tuned folks… You keep neglecting the fact that although sales are down, there is no pressure for owners to sell. Mortgage rates are stuck at rock bottom, so why do the boomers have to rush out and unload their homes? Everyone is just sitting tight. As long as the economy is growing, albeit slowly, and money is cheap there is no force driving a significant downturn in prices. I fear for your reputation when the mob of renters realizes that the emperor has no clothes.

There are bigger things for you to worry about than my rep. — Garth
*************************************8

I say…I say…Pay Attention Jimmy.

More listings from those who are stretched to thin, and now prospective buyers smelling blood in the air and holding off for a better deal. The system is that delicate and this will be enough momentum to spur a downhill run.

Come on – take a look at history it still applies today.

#133 hangfire on 01.04.13 at 1:56 pm

CBC announced this morning that RE prices in Vanc went UP 6.5% ….not down…who are you to argue with the know it all CBC? You’ll never get a job with Al Jazeera if you keep this up.

#134 Old Man on 01.04.13 at 2:04 pm

Now watch the cottage country carefully in Muskoka, Collingwood, and elsewhere. I have this hunch that many in Toronto borrowed equity against the principal residence over all age groups to buy a summer home. How could they go wrong? I hope they did not take a blanket mortgage to live the good life, as never touch the principal residence to buy a status symbol. I cannot confirm this all without making a phone call to Port Carling, but suspect there might be trouble in 2013, as just imagine a double hit with a lack of cash.

#135 DON on 01.04.13 at 2:11 pm

@#127 Smoking Man on 01.04.13 at 12:45 pm 99 LaughingCon

Of course sales are down from a record 2011 only screws Realtors.

But prices are up…. Did you see jobs report 30000k in the Ontario and cdn dollar going space shuttle.

Sorry dude bit longer for you in the basement. Lol

8888888888888888888888 ball

Yes full-time jobs were created but how many were fulltime temporary jobs created in warehousing, shipping and transportation for the holiday season?

To quote the news is a little concerning as you never really get the true story – just like dealing with a realtor who is foaming at the mouth for another commission. How do I know things are not going so well in BC…my realtor in-law of all a sudden STOPPED gloating about how good his job was. Now he doesn’t even mention anything at all but to ask if I know anyone who is looking to buy – I of course said yes I do.. Me in about 3-5 years. Until then I will rent a house and not replace a roof, old electrical and have to pay taxes based on outrageous tax assessments that only benefit the local and provincial governments.

I know people look down on renters – but I am liquid and ready and willing to move for opportunities when I CHOOSE to. The pendulum seems to be swinging the other way – soon people will recognize that they were the fools. Of course this does not apply to those who own their homes and do not need to sell, but then again how many folks took out loans to renovate, buy BMW’s and trips galore. It’s coming – be patient and wait for it. This should not be a surprise to anyone only the delusional.

What we all should be concerned about…is how did so many educated professionals get taken in by the PONZI scheme. This will come into play when I go looking to select one of these so-called professionals.

#136 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.04.13 at 2:20 pm

#130 Andrew on 01.04.13 at 1:08 pm

Andrew I have never claimed it to be a particularly good time to buy right now, nor have I said it is a bad time. It is what it is. Those who are compelled to buy by some motivation of merit should not be affraid to buy in this, or any, particular market should if their contemplated purchase is a part of a well considered, long term, within their means strategy.

#137 Aussie Roy on 01.04.13 at 2:27 pm

Aussie Update

House prices sink for a second year

Australian home values have fallen for the second year in a row, marking the worst run for the national property market in 16 years.

The slide comes despite the Reserve Bank of Australia slashing the cash interest rate six times in little more than a year, suggesting the availability of cheaper credit is only tempering the property slump rather than kick-starting a recovery.

Analysts RP Data-Rismark report that capital city dwelling values fell 0.4 in 2012, with the decline coming on the back of a 3.8 per cent fall in 2011.

‘‘This is the first time we’ve had back-to-back value declines for an index that goes back to 1996,’’ said RP Data senior research analyst Cameron Kusher. ‘‘It is clear that the previous strong value growth conditions to which many home owners became accustomed to in recent years are well and truly behind us.’’

Mr Kusher said the interest rate cuts amounting to a 135 basis point fall since October 2011 had ‘‘helped’’ the market but were being blunted by weak consumer confidence and affordability concerns.

http://www.thecourier.com.au/story/1213708/house-prices-sink-for-a-second-year/

Home prices fall, again

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/home-prices-fall-again-20130102-2c57d.html

Australia Home Prices Drop for Second Year as Consumers Cautious

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-02/australia-home-prices-drop-for-second-year-as-consumers-cautious.html

#138 MALCOLM X MAN on 01.04.13 at 2:28 pm

Hello Garth luv your blog
Why dont you quote Terranet numbers to your readers? Not the realturds numbers that you tell us not to trust.
It seems like you and the realturds are just fighting for the few hard dollars we regular workers have left
(the best consumer is an educated consumer)
Have Great Day Yall

#139 Old Man on 01.04.13 at 2:30 pm

#135 happy renter – you do not need a green card to buy in USA, and the best deals have come and gone, as #1 was Arizona; a bit too late. The other was Florida and for my money would be Naples or other areas on the west coast, but never the Miami area, and forget Atlanta. Key West rules as no crash there – why? I will tell you why as is very unique with location, historical structures, entertainment, weather, and cashflow to support all.

#140 house burden on 01.04.13 at 2:36 pm

Canadian main focus in paying off their debt, just like Obama, you can talk the talk but can you walk the walk.

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadians-paying-down-debt-main-focus-2013-cibc-091007904.html

To alll those analyst and supposily new caster saying Canadian were taking care of their debts. Where the hell do you get your information from.

If Canadians were taking care of their debt, then how come the debt gets bigger and bigger. Sometime you have to face the facts. You bit off more than you can chew, the debt is way too big and it will take over one life time to get rid of it.

More focus on debt also means less savings, So Canada cannot print more $$, cause no one will buy them, unless they increase the interest rates to entice saver!

Note I know its not much but I have a chunk of my savings in Cash savings such as GIC , and interest bearing vehicles. What I find surpising is I’m in the second year of a 1.25 / 2.5% / 3.3% program. So in the next year I’m going to be collecting more interest than the banks are lending it out to people. How screwed up is that. Its should raise some red flags to mortgage borrower. Cause the banks are in the business of making money and not giving it away.
http://www.canada.com/Will+Canadians+focus+debt+reduction+RRSP+sales+2013/7770102/story.html

#141 Patiently Waiting on 01.04.13 at 2:41 pm

Another recent buyer heads for the exits praying to find that greater fool …

MLS F1300179
Purchased in Dec. 2012 for $1,357,000
Listed at $1,450,000
1st Mortgage is $1,000,000 (Prime + 7%) so 10%
Estimated monthly payment is: $8,775

I cannot believe how many of these I am seeing … why would people borrow so much money at such high interest rates when interest rates are still at historic lows … How do people get themselves into these situations … ? What do they use to buy food after payments like this …

pw

#142 timmy on 01.04.13 at 2:47 pm

hey garthy, how many of the comments do you delete? 90% 75% 50%, are you a closet fascist? do as I say, not as I do….creep

In future, only 100% of yours. — Garth

#143 jess on 01.04.13 at 2:54 pm

neo ghost revival
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2256796/Rows-boarded-terraced-houses-Accrington-brought-life-10m-revamp.html?ICO=most_read_module

===
The Land Acts left Irish estates with insufficient agricultural income to cover the cost of their upkeep and many were split up and sold
http://www.clandeboye.co.uk/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b011wpjf

#144 TakingResponsibility on 01.04.13 at 3:08 pm

Something odd going on around here… or, maybe just Edmonton Sun spin…

Just think – Back in the day; no one was All Pumped at a rising property tax assessment as we knew that meant the municipality was out to squeeze more property tax from us. We used to fight those ‘property values’.

When did this change?! Why on earth are people Pumped at Paying More Property Tax?? Is this a new status thing – I pay more property tax; therefore, I am better/smarter/etc.?!

Seriously. Baffled.

#145 Holy Crap Wheres the Tylenol on 01.04.13 at 3:11 pm

All this Doom and Gloom. Today I have read at least 6 different predictions. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/four-investor-predictions-and-a-wild-card-for-2013-2013-01-04

“An economic forecaster is like a cross-eyed javelin thrower: they don’t win many accuracy contests, but they keep the crowd’s attention.” (Anonymous)
that pretty much sums it up in a nutshell. Hum where to put my liquid assets? Yes I have it! A distillery, that has to be a sure bet. You all know when this economy goes to Hell in a Hand Basket we will be drinking ourselves to death.

#146 Andrew on 01.04.13 at 3:12 pm

Remember DA, I said you were right, so no need to go on and on….

Doesn’t change that it is Realtor SalesSpeak nonsense.

Reminder:
RE prices are TOO HIGH.
People have TOO MUCH DEBT.
When things change the ability of the average person to afford their debt levels is seriously in doubt as a result.

Let’s talk about that.

#147 Spiltbongwater on 01.04.13 at 3:18 pm

#145 Patiently Waiting on 01.04.13 at 2:41 pm

It makes no sense. The person bought last month and is selling already? These prime + 7% is crazy as well, as I think it is easy to get much cheaper rate then that. Unless of course, it is a business write off where they look for the highest rate possible, or purchase with their RRSP and get the highest rate they can find to pay themselves the money?

#148 Dontcallmeshirley on 01.04.13 at 3:19 pm

@ #101 Devil’s Advocate

“The problem with the economy today is that it is the economy which is the business rather than the businesses striving within it. ”

I got a better one: “…we didn’t land on Plymouth rock, Plymouth rock landed on us”

Instead of philosophy, your posts would have more impact if you simply told us how many contracted sell listings you have and your YTD closed deal count.

#149 Canadian Watchdog on 01.04.13 at 3:33 pm

GTA December Home Sales Dollar Volume

Dec-99

$758,845,832

Dec-00

$723,080,856

Dec-01

$1,217,091,008

Dec-02

$986,982,178

Dec-03

$1,195,101,270

Dec-04

$1,336,300,552

Dec-05

$1,392,304,080

Dec-06

$1,495,156,999

Dec-07

$1,834,850,285

Dec-08

$931,366,488

Dec-09

$2,282,508,704

Dec-10

$1,907,191,564

Dec-11

$2,129,875,371

Dec-12

$1,766,546,971

#150 Canadian Watchdog on 01.04.13 at 3:34 pm

GTA December Home Sales Dollar Volume

Dec-99 $758,845,832
Dec-00 $723,080,856
Dec-01 $1,217,091,008
Dec-02 $986,982,178
Dec-03 $1,195,101,270
Dec-04 $1,336,300,552
Dec-05 $1,392,304,080
Dec-06 $1,495,156,999
Dec-07 $1,834,850,285
Dec-08 $931,366,488
Dec-09 $2,282,508,704
Dec-10 $1,907,191,564
Dec-11 $2,129,875,371
Dec-12 $1,766,546,971

#151 :) :( Ying Yang on 01.04.13 at 3:37 pm

I hate to say it but I have a feeling America will get into another war to super-boost them themselves into a false economy. If there isn’t one coming then they will manufacture one to fit! The war machine will always rule unfortunately with the military–industrial–congressional complex. What they need to do is to is to launch and economic war. Get North America back to a producer of machinery, technology and re-invent themselves as the economic center of the universe.

#152 Bottoms_Up on 01.04.13 at 4:17 pm

#123 Pr on 01.04.13 at 12:41 pm
————————————–
Most for sale by owners (FSBOs) either have their home priced too high or too low. If buying from a FSBO, ask yourself are you getting a deal or getting screwed? As a FSBO seller, don’t do it unless you have a really good grasp what your property is worth.

#153 Bottoms_Up on 01.04.13 at 4:19 pm

#108 Sacola FNC on 01.04.13 at 12:04 pm
——————————————–
He’s admitted that many times and in fact will give you real estate advice if you ask. He’s not hiding his profession.

#154 Paul on 01.04.13 at 4:27 pm

#112 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 01.04.13 at 12:11 pm

My former place has gone below the 09 assessment.

#155 The Karma Police on 01.04.13 at 4:28 pm

Folks,

Do not worry. We will take care of the real estate cartel’s in-appropriate behaviour. Good or bad, no one escapes their Karma. It is a Law of this Universe.

We highly recommend that you take the high road when dealing with people from this organization. It does not serve your highest good to engage them in their games of deceit. You are better than this.

We would also like to note that some of the lower ranking members in this cartel are simply pawns being used by the higher ranking members. The mis-information comes from the top and is regurgitated ad nauseum throughout the ranks.

My point is, don’t blame the realtors for this, they have also been mis-lead by an organization they trust. They will need compassion when they finally accept the truths that so many of us have known for a long time.

Now for something we hope you will really love.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBH97ma9YiI

A little radiohead for your friday afternoon!

#156 Form Man on 01.04.13 at 4:37 pm

#108 Sacola

MJB is not DA

#157 Boomer21 on 01.04.13 at 4:44 pm

Just had our annual after Christmas lunch and before school starts again with my Grandchildren, 17 and 15. I gave each of them a copy of The Wealthy Barber Returns as one of their Christmas presents. They both are about a third of the way through and both agreed a lot of what he says is common sense. We then discussed saving (paying yourself first) and credit cards. My Grandson has worked in retail this Christmas and he said “I don’t get why people put a $30 dollar shirt on a credit card, why don’t they just save up the $30″ they both have part time jobs all year and save 50% of what they make. Sooo proud of them. The next book will be Garth’s Money Road. Wealthy Barber is a good start in the basics IMO.

#158 Kosta on 01.04.13 at 5:41 pm

Well realtors are still desperately trying to spin this market as a good “investment”… like this posting:

http://ilanjoseph.com/torontos-real-estate-market-will-stay-strong-in-2013/

#159 Bill Gable on 01.04.13 at 5:41 pm

#146 Timmy

Show some respect, you moron.

Learn some manners, or buzz off.

You are making a fool of yourself.

Do you have PC after your name?

Have you served YOUR Country, like our host?

It’s Mr. Turner, or Garth.

(*Sorry, Mr. Turner, but this kind of stuff just drives me whack).

#160 hangfire on 01.04.13 at 6:03 pm

Where is the outrage over the taxpayer funded profits of the RE development community, RE Sales orgs and the banks in this country? While we as taxpayers continue to fund 100% of the risk of real estate ownership through the slush fund of the CMHC…the devs, banks and sales orgs have zero skin in the game….they build, they sell, they create mortgages…but at the end of the day it is the taxpayer who purchases the debt , pays the wages and commissions…..and accepts the entire risk of default.

If this is the case…then why isn’t it the CMHC that develops, sells the condo’s? We’re already financing the entire process now….why should these leaches profit from our taxes?

#161 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.04.13 at 6:17 pm

#150 Andrew on 01.04.13 at 3:12 pm

RE prices are TOO HIGH.
People have TOO MUCH DEBT.
When things change the ability of the average person to afford their debt levels is seriously in doubt as a result.

Let’s talk about that.

The market waits for no one, and you can not time market shifts shifts. Those who sell at the peak of the market and those who buy at the bottom are just lucky. The best one can do is try to buy in the ‘safe zone’ neither a buyer’s nor a seller’s market. We are right now off the peak and, while I don’t personally believe we are yet at the bottom, when that will happen is anyone’s guess we might be there we might not. But I’ confident we are at least halfway between the peak and the trough of this most recent cycle and as subchin a safe zone.

If you are motivated to buy and find the right house you can afford and are planning on staying in the market for the foreseeable future by all means you should feel comfortable buying right now. If you’re not comfortable or can’t find the right house you can afford or not planning on staying in the market for at least for a while (speculating), I can see why you might not want to buy right now.

The market is what it is, people are buying and selling. Who are you or I to tell them otherwise? Do you have a crystal ball ? I certainly don’t and too many times I’ve watched people do something I though they ought not only to ultimately say “Dang, I wish I’d thought to do that!”.

#162 LaughingCon on 01.04.13 at 6:19 pm

Re #127 Smoking Man / Wazzup

99 LaughingCon
Of course sales are down from a record 2011 only screws Realtors.
But prices are up…. Did you see jobs report 30000k in the Ontario and cdn dollar going space shuttle.
Sorry dude bit longer for you in the basement. Lol
====================================

Ooh the poor Smoking Man – only good with baseless s__t counting on the lazy people not going to double check what you claim:

You – “sales down from a record 2011″ ???
Me: Sales number for SFH in 416 for December:
2007 – 760 sales;
2008 – 357 sales;
2009 – 765 sales;
2010 – 576 sales;
2011 – 581 sales;
2012 – 491 sales;

LC 1 / SM 0:

“30k jobs in Ontario”
Me – CANSIM table 282-0088 (S.Adj.) Ontario
NAICS – Dec.2011 versus Dec.2012:
Goods prod.- 1,414.9k versus 1,408.3k now / decline;
Construction – 444.3k versus 428.1k now /decline;
Manufacturing – 784.7k versus 804.8 now / good but no change from November;
Trade – 979.7k versus 1,035.0k now / just the low paying jobs we need – positive is the realtors/MorBrokers can get a second job here to help with that car lease;
Transp/Wareh- 314.7k versus 329.2k now / goes hand in hand with the trade above;
FIRE – 483.0k versus 526.3k now / healthy increase in the parasites;
Professional – 586.3k versus 537.6k now / 50k good jobs gone and surprise 30k are gone since last month;
Education – 479.9k versus 527.0k now / we need more 95k teachers and babysitters; what can one say with the Educational dad;
Heath Care – 771.4k versus 770.4k now / no change;
Public Admin – 399.6k versus 384.2k now / good if only true???

LC 2 / SM 0

“Sorry dude bit longer for you in the basement’

Dude, do not worry about me – 13.5% up with two quickies in/out since 14 Dec with the AAPL whose movements you do not understand despite claiming algorithmic writing strategies and other BS…

#163 Canadian Watchdog on 01.04.13 at 6:19 pm

About those job numbers today… Chart 1

Which age group of workers will topple the property ladder? Chart 2

#164 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 01.04.13 at 6:21 pm

@#139 DON.
This time I WILL cherry pick.

Your statement…”Until then I will rent a house and not replace a roof, old electrical and have to pay taxes based on {outrageous tax assessments that only benefit the local and provincial governments} (brackets mine).

Talk about “having your cake and eating it too”. You argue on the one hand that civil servants deserve their wages and benefits and pensions BUT you rent because OUTRAGEOUS tax assessments “only” benefit local and provincial govts. …

What do you think they are raising these outrageous sums(YOUR words, NOT mine) for ?
Could it be for govt employees??????.
80% of the BC provincial govt. budget….80%…. goes to Health and Education, doesnt leave much for the rest of the “poor” govt employees schmoe’s in Fisheries, Highways, Police, Parks, etc.etc.etc.
And those tax assessments are only the tip of the iceberg, ……sales tax, income tax, inheiritance tax, gas tax, liquor tax, etc.etc.etc. ALL designed to raise money to keep govt running.
You may not agree with me that your productivity is less than the private sector. But when you , yourself squeal like a pig because your taxes are too high….

Dont condemn private sector taxpayers( 70 % of the worker) for being on the outside looking in and being angry…..

Budgets everywhere are bankrupt, Greece was first, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, France, California hangs by a thread.

My prediction, The BC. NDP Govt will arbitrarily claw back wages and benefits for civil servants because the books are “cooked” and they will blame it all on the Liberals. And any long term employees will scream and moan but take it…because if you quit….POOF!
your beautiful, unsustainable, bankrupt pension will be gone…

#165 broadway skytrain on 01.04.13 at 6:46 pm

assessments are in for BC “shovelling out the heartache”

west side did get stupid and is cooling

over in the E side, where growth has been very strong, but not quite bubbly, we remain in a strong uptrend.
8% increase in assessed value for 2013 for a 100+ yr old uninsulated, tilting shack. sales in this area have typically been 100-200k above ask for the last 10 yrs.

there was, however, a drop in our waterfront cottage property which is 40min from downtown van – it lost a whopping 6k in assessed value.

anybody waiting for bargain basement van RE prices is in for a loooooooooooong wait.

#166 broadway skytrain on 01.04.13 at 6:48 pm

DELETED

#167 live within your means on 01.04.13 at 6:53 pm

#123 Pr on 01.04.13 at 12:41 pm

Reread your post – much of it is unreadable – so many spelling, etc. mistakes. Are you are RE agent. There are lots of do-it-you own sites & many of them work. We’ve only sold 1 place with a guy not associated with any Co. We negotiated his commission with him when we bought our current home 22 yrs ago.

#168 AK on 01.04.13 at 6:54 pm

Brad Lamb on BNN.

Blaming Flaherty for the Condo slowdown.

http://www.bnn.ca/Shows/The-Close.aspx

#169 Andrew on 01.04.13 at 7:06 pm

DA,

Here, I’ll set the scene:

Kindly RE agent sitting in the too small living room of the eager buyer couple, who have contacted the agent because they can no longer resist the pressure from friends and relatives to buy and besides look around, this place is a dump anyway right?

RE agent smiles and agrees and opens his expensive leather-grained portfolio and spreads out the property sheets on the coffee table. He explains that they are a good sampling of properties that match their wants, needs and budget that they provided to him prior to his visit.

It’s an attractive array of properties and very affordable!

They spend a day or two touring the properties, it’s a pleasant experience. It’s a tough decision but the couple is really drawn to that cute bungalow in a good neighbourhood, it’s at the upper end of their budget, but they can’t resist.

They draw up the offer.

But before they put it in, the agent has been crunching the numbers and he knows it will be a squeeze so he sits them down one last time and asks:

“Are you sure you can afford this? You know I’m not here to sell you anything, I only want to facilitate the process to make sure you get what is right for you.”

Without hesitation the hot, sweaty, couple chimes in together “Yes we’re sure!”

With that the agent is satisfied that he has met his ethical obligations(I asked, they said sure!), He hands over the pen, they sign, it’s handshakes and smiles and the agent leaves to submit the offer.

2 years later.

Someone lost their job.
Someone got pregnant.
Divorce.
Someone got sick or hurt at work.
House developed several maintenance issues costing several thousand unbudgeted dollars.
etc.
(I won’t mention a rise in interest rated, but you never know)

In a normal economy, couple would’ve budgeted for these contigences but all savings used for down payment (including money borrowed from one or both set of parrents).

Circumstances radically changed, they are now underwater.
Couple royally screwed, I hope they make it! Stay tuned!

Anyway DA,

Using my commone sense as my crystal b…er guide, I would conclude that:

House prices are TOO HIGH
People have TOO MUCH DEBT
Which=

RE Market too risky, balance, liquidity less risky.

No amount of Realtor SalesSpeak will change this because.

it is what it is.

#170 Guy Smiley on 01.04.13 at 7:10 pm

Check out Brad Lamb on BNN today. “The King of Condos ” looks nervous. “The idea making someone spend 20% on a house over $1 million in a city like Toronto is absurd”. He also conveniently forgets that the housing crash was the biggest cause of the recession not the other way around. He is in fine form. http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip837503

#171 Guy Smiley on 01.04.13 at 7:11 pm

Darn AK beat me to it.

#172 arit on 01.04.13 at 7:26 pm

Sacola at 108

Regarding your claim that Mr Mark Jenning Bates is DA.

I was undecided, until I compared a picture of the wives.
The wife of MJB is in this picture, her name is Jackie.
http://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/rally4life

The wife of DAis in this picture, her name is “The Survivalist”.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2010/12/21/survival/

So clearly it is not the same individual :)

Best regards

arit

#173 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.04.13 at 7:31 pm

#173 Andrew on 01.04.13 at 7:06 pm

So what’s the problem?

Life is full of risk. What you do has risk just as what you don’t do has risk. The scenerio you paint as possible for those fictitious buyers is no more probable as the possibility that your plan might backfire on you.

Do what you think best for you. Let others do what they think best for them.

#174 Hoof - Hearted on 01.04.13 at 7:58 pm

I think Garth should have a book ” Garth’s Deleted Comments”

I mean, sure….95% of it is probably Smoking Man’s usual Bullsh*t, but still…..

#175 TurnerNation on 01.04.13 at 8:04 pm

Pass the Realtor spray! They’re thick tonight.

#176 TurnerNation on 01.04.13 at 8:13 pm

Someone commented, others seem to be quite short/grumpy lately. I’m chalking it up as either the mid winter blues or massive debt fatigue. Spending the holidays with vacuous friends & family, the latest
must-have overpriced i-device in hand cannot much help the matter.

It’s time for the banks to change their tunes:

You are bitchier than you think.
Banking can be this uncomfortable.

#177 Smoking Man on 01.04.13 at 8:32 pm

#166 LaughingCon.

So proud of you, look how I got you out of your shell, and huge improvement over
Its going to be a nasty crash Realtors a nasty crash….

Now you do realize that my mind is connected to the force, it’s impossible to be wrong……..

Spring Market will see huge price spikes on less volume…

I know Yoda, he teaches me shit………

#178 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 01.04.13 at 8:54 pm

-
Received the FexEx email today with attachment. The attachment contains a virus, so I trashed it before opening it, saving myself a lot of trouble.
*
#89 Westcdn and #120 Tony — Something like this?
*
US Mint “Note how in the top paragraph they say that by law the US Government is not allowed to create money, then further down, say it is “theoretically ” legal. At $1500 an ounce, the coin would have to be 20833 tons in weight to have the full face value. So this is another “faith based” money; a worthless fiat coin.”; wrh.com and Three Huge Myths about the trillion dollar coin; Govt. Motors Workers receive US$7K bonus; Banks and RE One law for the rich . . .; Hurricane Sandy The figures are slightly off, no? Proof Wall St. owns DC; 65% of Americans Good guess.
*
al Quada (The Toilet) Robin Cook said this, then conveniently kicked the proverbial bucket; A cure for ObombaCare From Canada; 44:05 doc. Agenda 21 — Environmental Marxism; File Sharing Five years in the slammer; The American Revolution was against British gun control. See what’s coming next? List of Seed Cos. owned by Monsanto; Karma Sux What comes around goes around; War Addiction and Political Dysfunction Similar to a crazed drug addict.

#179 TurnerNation on 01.04.13 at 8:58 pm

#81 Mixed Bag

Do not assume so. I suspect Bandit has a hand/paw in it: http://www.quickmeme.com/meme/3qn69k/

#180 TurnerNation on 01.04.13 at 9:05 pm

#84 betamax

Here’s my area’s Rock Star Realty firm. Staffed with gorge hotties, apparently.

It’s fronted by a condo developer whose name rhymes with greed.

http://www.psrbrokerage.com/team/

Bringin’ back the Don’t Trust Anyone Over 30 mantra?

#181 Intuitive Missus on 01.04.13 at 9:18 pm

This makes me crazy. How can they say this property sold for 97% of list? They mean “latest list”. The original list was $700,000. If it sold for $615,000. By my calculation it sold at 87.85% of list. No wonder the market is screwed.

2314 Belyea St   Sold: $615,000  
Oakville, Ontario L6L1N6  Halton    Bronte West List: $635,000  
Orig Price: $700,000 Taxes: $5,023/2012 97 % List
SPIS: N  Bronte West  476-20-U DOM: 46 Contract: 11/19/2012 Sold: 1/4/2013

#182 Shane on 01.04.13 at 9:19 pm

Garth, when is your new book coming out?

Just need eight more DELETED comments. — Garth

#183 TurnerNation on 01.04.13 at 9:31 pm

#167 Canadian Watchdog

It’s all in the lyrics. Get ‘em while they’re youngsters.

“They’ll stone you when you’re young and able”.

“They’ll stone you just like they said they would”.

“Everybody must get stoned”.

Here’s the Black Crowes covering that song:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FTCSie0Z6g

#184 Andrew on 01.04.13 at 9:32 pm

DA,

Okay let’s compare.

I don’t buy an over-priced house in a bubble market that I can’t afford. I do my research, seek sound advice and create a solid finanical plan with the liquidity to alter positions if necessary and in best case scenario provide a solid return.

or I could…

buy that house, because I think I can afford it and the slick dudes like DA insist “Life Happens:” so go for it!and LIFE HAPPENS alright… the market tanks or well…Life Happens! I lose everything damn I’m stupid! I KNOW IT’S ALL MY FAULT, Why did I listen to everyone except anyone with any sense? Oh God!

Thanks DA.

#185 robert on 01.04.13 at 9:33 pm

Jimmy #116.. Take a look at the long long list of court ordered sales just in the Shuswap Jimmy then tell me people do not have to sell. Your argument is seriously flawed and i watched a friend of mine apply the same thinking to Nortel as he watched his 650k RRSP vanish into thin air. The US ten year bond is now trading at 1.9 as of today and two months ago it was 1.40 what do you think would happen if the world decides that it should be 5% to 6%? I have not heard one reasonable argument from you that defends the position that we have not entered into a bear market for houses. Talked to a realtor today who confirmed that the phones have gone silent and more disturbing yet was very few of these calls were from qualified buyers. Lets see a shortage of buyers a rising inventory and you suggest that there is nothing to worry about as home owners will just pull their listings. hmmmm..

#186 Paul on 01.04.13 at 9:38 pm

#108 Sacola FNC on 01.04.13 at 12:04 pm

DA hasn’t posted on Castanet in more then 2 years.

#187 The Man From Nantucket on 01.04.13 at 9:43 pm

If there’s one thing I’ve learned from being a long time blog dog it’s that there is more than one Smoking Man. He’s often imitated, never fully duplicated.

Garth may know how many hucksters there are….can we run a little pool?

I’m saying 8 unique IPs over the last year.

#188 TurnerNation on 01.04.13 at 9:46 pm

Someone, break out a Sitar! Tune in, turn on, drop out.
Well before my time, but…

#189 Herb on 01.04.13 at 9:48 pm

#181 Smoking Man,

in that case tell Yoda that you’ve learned enough shit and that it’s time to get on with the good stuff.

#190 Furst on 01.04.13 at 9:56 pm

#71 Dr. WAYNE on 01.04.13 at 2:04 am

Never …

“Anger dwells only in the bosom of fools.”
Albert Einstein
______________________________________

You have man bosoms…..

#191 Fleabitten Monkey on 01.04.13 at 10:42 pm

#117 TRT
lol hahahahahah

#192 Statto on 01.05.13 at 10:32 am

It’s never been more important to know price per square foot info when you are purchasing a condo. This website has it all for Toronto – neighbourhood data and even building data. Amazing. http://condos.ca/neighbourhoods/annex-yorkville/81

#193 Mixed Bag on 01.05.13 at 11:41 am

#183 TurnerNation on 01.04.13 at 8:58 pm

Hahaha!

#194 Titus on 01.05.13 at 9:14 pm

Owners of real estate will always overvalue their own homes. Reality is no one truly knows what the value is attached to your home until you list your home and put it on the market. The market has spoken, those houses in Vancouver are not worth what people are asking. Case closed. It’s like trying to extract blood from stone, the mentality that there will be a rapid rise in housing inflation. Cause has effect. When supply exceeds demand, prices cannot rise. Makes no sense.

#195 Titus on 01.05.13 at 9:22 pm

I liken what’s happening now in Vancouver to what happened all over the states in 2007/2008. Not a single realtor or mortgage broker thought that real estate was going over a cliff, and look at what happened! The rules of economics will always apply. No one market is immune. Market capitalism will prevail. Can’t say people are stupid for not wanting to extract blood from stone in a downward market. Those people are smart for not wanting to purchase as the bottom has not even been realized in terms of price. You cannot establish a bottom price when people remove their homes off the market. The bottom is established when people want to try and get back in, in other words show confidence in real time valuations. And those valuations simply do not exist. Dog kennels pegged at over 700,000 Canadian dollars???

#196 EIT on 01.06.13 at 11:52 am

Syrian Revolution? I thought it was a proxy war sponsored by the West. We all know what happened, economic hitmen and jackals didn’t work. You got to play ball, is this what you meant by don’t bet against America Garth. Because they’ll bomb the shit out of your country anyway they can figure out how? (what do you expect from the people who pushed a movie where 24 children murder each other in a battle royal) A renaissance? Please.

#197 Doug in London on 01.06.13 at 12:47 pm

House prices, especially in delusional Toronto and Vancouver remind me of a post card I saw many years ago. It had a picture of a half collapsed shack and the caption below said: Finally found a house we could afford!

Well, at last reading of the altimeter, prices are starting their descent from above the stratosphere (where even Chris Hadfield needed a good telescope to see them) to something that’s at least in sight of reality here on Earth.