El predicto

speed1

You’re not just a chickenshit cockroach, you’re a sawed-off has-been, fear-mongering, bullshitting charlatan. Your so-called predictions will end up being more toilet paper, asswipe. – Blog comment, December 31, 2011.

Once a year I start a new document for comments I choose not to publish. Like the one above. So far in 2012, it runs 135 pages, single-spaced. In fact ten of those pages were inspired by a single blog post – the one I scrawled out on New Year’s Eve, giving predictions for 2012.

This post was so popular, it even inspired one realtor to post this Haiku:

Your posts are stupid. You are a dumbass, Garth.
At your age, I recommend that you get a real hobby.
Look at all the idiocies you posted here.
Look at yourself in the mirror now.
Shake your head sideways.
Who cares about the market?
Renting just plain sucks.
You SUCK.

What inspirational words did I pen to move so many people one year ago? And after 12 tumultuous months of market turmoil, political action, economic roiling, five million hits and 310 blog posts, how did this little cockroach do? Let’s count.

Prediction: The condo market will crumble.
Obviously right. Late last year condo sales in Toronto, for example, were sizzling. Now they’ve collapsed 26%. Buildings are being cancelled, construction’s down 65% and resales are piling up. “But the demise of the virile condo market is not just a condo story,” I said. “Virgin buyers are the fuel for real estate’s continued fire, as young people discover it’s way cooler to rent the same unit for less more and more freedom, the entire food chain of housing will be affected. Consequently, this is a big story.” And it’s far from over. Score 1.

Prediction: Vancouver will be so 2009.
“The region’s unlivable for average families, and real estate’s become the new porn,” this blog said a year ago. “This year will mark the definitive end as the pendulum swings back. If you sold in the first four months of 2011, you were a genius.” Sales in Vancouver have sucked now for seven months. The average single-family home price is down 12.25%. Richmond’s nuked. The Westside is illiquid. Prices are indeed rolling back to 2009 levels, and won’t stop there. Score 1.

Prediction: Mark Carey will actually do it.
He did it all right. He quit. Not the outcome I expected when I said, “Rates will rise in 2012 as Brother Carney takes aim at the very thing which poses the greatest long-term threat: our piggy opinion of debt.” Instead of raising interest rates two quarter points, he scolded Canadians for their profligate ways, then took a job in England for $1 million a year. Score 0.

Prediction: Volatile markets will reward.
A year ago doomers flooded this blog predicting 2012 would be the year America croaked, taking financial markets along with it. Nope, I said. “This year the market will be volatile, but end with a double-digit gain.” With a day or two to go, things could change, but thus far the benchmark S&P index is ahead 12.06%, and a nice, stable balanced portfolio (40% safe stuff, 60% growth assets) is up about ten per cent. Not too shabby, and worth a 1.

Prediction: Europe will bore. Greece will choke.
While I thought a year ago those debauched, tax-evading Greeks would default on a bond or two, I also said it wouldn’t matter. “The big news is there’ll be no big bank failures, no currency collapse, no defaults by any countries that actually matter.” As we now know, Greece voted to stay in the Eurozone, Spain was bailed, France and Italy got new leaders and nobody talks about Europe any more. Yawn. Score .5.

Prediction: Obama will win. US real estate hits bottom.
“Won’t even be close. Within months of the re-election, the American housing market will finally hit bottom and start the long, slow advance.” Obama swept to power, of course, with an unequivocal mandate. Meanwhile the numbers are clear: the American real estate market is in full recovery mode, with Phoenix prices 20% higher and 186 bids recently for a townhouse in Washington. Resale prices, new home construction and sales are all surging. Don’t bet against America. Score 1.

Prediction: House prices will fall.
Prices in December, I said, will be lower than in January – which is a fail. Yes, they’re declining with SFHs worth about 12% less than in the Spring in both 416 and Van. But that 15% national decrease ain’t happening yet. Of course, it will. Score 0.

Prediction: In fact, all asset prices will fall.
A year ago I saw us standing on the threshold of deflation. Still do. I’m sticking with this one: “Houses, cars and iPads will get cheaper, at the same time the cost of gas, insurance and food rises. Asset deflation means what you owns loses value. Price inflation means what you make buys less. This is lousy news if the bulk of your net worth is in your house or a bank savings account.” Priced a tablet lately? Get a salary increase this year? Score 1.

Prediction: F will tighten.
Last DecemberI gave the elfin deity big odds to trash the 30-year mortgage and return to the traditional 25-year term as a way of deliberately cooling off the market. That’s exactly what he did. And it came with special sauce – CMHC insurance stripped from high-end homes and an end to the cash-back, no-money-down mortgage. As a result home sales have been in y/y negative numbers for eight months, and the little guy has apparently been bronzed. Score 1.

Prediction: Most people won’t get it.
The conclusion a year ago: “The back story is one of falling asset values, rising markets, a moribund economy, higher inflation and commodity prices, declining real estate, tighter credit and few jobs.” That means people who spent 2012 paying off 3% mortgages, buying bond funds, holding gold, being afraid of financial markets or putting their TFSAs into GICs, just wasted a perfectly good year. The good news? There’s another one just like it starting in a week.

My 2013 predictions will appear Monday. Hold the abuse.

132 comments ↓

#1 Joe on 12.27.12 at 9:50 pm

First

#2 Blasé on 12.27.12 at 9:51 pm

here’s my bold prediction: a recall election in Alberta sweeps in the Canadian tea party, wild rose.

#3 Vatodeth on 12.27.12 at 9:56 pm

Garth, you’re an idiot savant! I love you man!

#4 Smoking Man on 12.27.12 at 9:57 pm

Gartho your getting better, with your predictions.

Have you been paying closer attention to smoking man posts.

Take this the the bank when predicting, track6ers don’t care about price to income ratio, its always been Rent to poorly calculated ownership ratio.

#5 Okotokian on 12.27.12 at 9:57 pm

Not a bad batting average. Most pundits won’t go out on a limb and make any predictions. Their predictions are vague and offer them a way out if they are wrong (Jim Cramer anyone?). Just a bunch of semantics and modal verbs that sound good but don’t mean much in the end. Garth, you aren’t 100% right, 100% of the time but you never claimed to be infallible. But your predictions are based on fact and you seem to see the long game better than most. For anyone who is looking for someone that’s 100% right about the future 100% of the time…look in the guyana white pages under Jones, Jim.

#6 Adam on 12.27.12 at 9:59 pm

Me first?

#7 jo on 12.27.12 at 9:59 pm

Garth:

I love your comments everyday, keep them coming. You are one of the few honorable journalist left. With so much BS media out there, what a treasure you are.

#8 TurnerNation on 12.27.12 at 10:02 pm

This scotch-fueled weblog lives for another year.
To F’s chargin?

#9 Frizzzz on 12.27.12 at 10:08 pm

Planning on firing these posts back to the original senders albeit a full year later? I would! Give them a shot of; “And how do you like them apples?”

Wheres Nosty?

#10 Smoking Man on 12.27.12 at 10:08 pm

DELETED

#11 Jon B on 12.27.12 at 10:10 pm

Nice recap of the past 12 months. Your crystal ball is impressive. Don’t be shy about throwing in your predictions on the $CAD vs $USD in 2013 on Monday.

#12 T.O. Bubble Boy on 12.27.12 at 10:11 pm

Prediction: new Garth book in 2013.

#13 house hunter on 12.27.12 at 10:14 pm

pimco monthly income fund (bond) is up ytd over 23percent what wrong with that

Wait and find out. — Garth

#14 Rob on 12.27.12 at 10:15 pm

Hey Garth, when do you predict the media will jump on the bandwagon and claim to be the first to tell us the truth about real estate deflation?

#15 Village Whisperer on 12.27.12 at 10:15 pm

Thanks for you observations, Garth.

The reason people keep coming to the site is because they want to read your opinions.

And if your opinions change over time on various topics – or if they are in complete opposition to what a given reader believes… the fact remains they come back to read what you have to say.

Thank you for taking the time each day.

Happy New Year.

#16 Blasé on 12.27.12 at 10:18 pm

here’s what will crash the toronto housing market: better returns elsewhere. capital moves to the best returns. when housing becomes passé in Canada in spring 2013, there will be a flight to returns that will no longer be available in Canada. rising unemployment across Canada will accelerate this process.

#17 luckyme on 12.27.12 at 10:19 pm

already in 2102? :) don’t thimk I’m so old :):)

#18 An Importation To Prop The Ponzi Scheme on 12.27.12 at 10:19 pm

Any predictions about Harper’s touppee? How much is his inferiority complex costing us taxpayers?

#19 Smoking Man on 12.27.12 at 10:25 pm

#7 jo on 12.27.12 at 9:59 pm
Garth:

I love your comments everyday, keep them coming. You are one of the few honorable journalist left. With so much BS media out there, what a treasure you are.
………………………………………………………………..

Who can argue with that………..

This years Two most famous words Elfin Diati. Perfect

#20 Gogo on 12.27.12 at 10:25 pm

I read something by Ray Dalio yesterday – ” Those who live by the crystal ball are destined to eat ground glass.” … Talking about predictions…

#21 DR. WAYNE on 12.27.12 at 10:26 pm

#1 Joe on 12.27.12 at 9:50 pm

First
=====================

Yes … you are the first a$$hole … and there’s another one right after you.

#22 DaleFromCalgary on 12.27.12 at 10:27 pm

Re: post #2
Sorry Blase, but Alberta doesn’t have recall elections. Wildrose can’t get elected until they purge all the seig-heil candidates and acknowledge that two-thirds of voters live in the cities, not on farms.

#23 Smoking Man on 12.27.12 at 10:28 pm

#14 Rob on 12.27.12 at 10:15 pm
Hey Garth, when do you predict the media will jump on the bandwagon and claim to be the first to tell us the truth about real estate deflation?
……………………………………………………………….
what a ridiculousness question MSM takes orders…..
If Jan and Feb are too soft…………expect them to blow sunshine.

#24 DR. WAYNE on 12.27.12 at 10:28 pm

#6 Adam on 12.27.12 at 9:59 pm

Me first?
======================

No, you a$$hole (no question mark) Kemosaby …

#25 TurnerNation on 12.27.12 at 10:35 pm

I wonder how many raunchy commenters are posting from a Parliment Hill washroom while on a break. Too easy.

#26 Hoof - Hearted on 12.27.12 at 10:37 pm

#19 Smoking Man on 12.27.12 at 10:25 pm

#7 jo on 12.27.12 at 9:59 pm
Garth:

I love your comments everyday, keep them coming. You are one of the few honorable journalist left. With so much BS media out there, what a treasure you are.
………………………………………………………………..

Who can argue with that………..

This years Two most famous words Elfin Diati. Perfect

=================================

Single most perfect word re Smoking Man….”DELETED”

Runner up: ” F%$#ing Know squat all

#27 Glen on 12.27.12 at 10:38 pm

The wisdom or as the naysayers would say, lack of wisdom would be wasted sending the results back to the naysayers. One of my teachers wrote in his book about not being a victim and “the Joy of being quietly effective”, just enjoy the results and how it is helpful to those who have an open mind to listen.
This blog and my partner, finally got me to take the final steps away from the bank’s dragging money to funds that really didn’t perform for some years now.
Between some Bank, cautious communications and some growth opportunities it delivers a lot better than thinking a home is an investment that will give a big return, not in the long long long run and it makes it more fun…

#28 Hoof - Hearted on 12.27.12 at 10:47 pm

#24 DR. WAYNE on 12.27.12 at 10:28 pm

#6 Adam on 12.27.12 at 9:59 pm

Me first?
======================

No, you a$$hole (no question mark) Kemosaby …

==================================

2013 Prediction:

Dr. Wayne err Dr W-a$$hole-yne will be first at least once ……..not like usual at the bottom of his Nigerian Banker grad class.

#29 nocte_volens on 12.27.12 at 10:47 pm

I hope you include a prediction on gold for 2013 for the metalheads and doomers. (i’m one of the former, not the latter)

#30 Not 1st on 12.27.12 at 10:52 pm

Garth you also predicted the Calgary market would be significantly lower by the time. Gotta give you a -1 on that.

Tried selling a condo there lately? — Garth

#31 Observer on 12.27.12 at 11:04 pm

A**wipe has quite a noble history, Garth. I think he was actually complimenting you!

By 1391 AD, toilet paper was in common enough use that the Chinese emperor’s inventory included 2’x3′ sheets of toilet paper, and the Bureau of Imperial Supplies recorded a production level of 720,000 sheets each year just for the Imperial Court. Ordinary toilet paper wasn’t good enough for the emperor, though, and he had soft, perfumed toilet paper made just for the imperial family.

http://voices.yahoo.com/the-history-toilet-paper-weird-facts-important-316157.html

#32 The Man From Nantucket on 12.27.12 at 11:06 pm

Smoking Man RE track 6’ers

“……its always been Rent to poorly calculated ownership ratio…..”

Brilliantly put. This is the biggest factor.

The second is that folks feel a need to own, because their friends all do, and won’t hear that there’s a different (and sometimes better) way.

#33 FTP - First Time Poster on 12.27.12 at 11:23 pm

I thought one of your predictions was that these morons who keep posting “FIRST” like a bunch of four year olds would be eradicated? Score: 0

#34 wes coast on 12.27.12 at 11:23 pm

Like Hollywood says – there is no such thing as ‘bad’ publicity. Keep pissing people off Garth – that’s what truth does and that’s a good indication you are right. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you all.

#35 Richard and Zeus on 12.27.12 at 11:25 pm

And while prices of cost of living stuff goes up…..so do the salaries of useless govt pencil pushers while the tax payers that fund them……have not seen an increase in ten years.

I’m wondering why no one ever comments on this. Could it be this pathetic blog is full of……tax evading govt workers? ( govt workers do not pay taxes because you cannot pay tax on work funded by tax).

#36 Smoking Man on 12.27.12 at 11:27 pm

Blog dogs I need help, you guys are talented, I want to do this, this year. My new year resolution. Finished in time for TIFF.

Garth please don’t delete this link. I relay want to do this, I don’t have a tone on time to get it done.

But a vision said now is the time…….

http://dyslexicsmokingman.blogspot.ca/

#37 coastal on 12.27.12 at 11:30 pm

Gold is up 4% this year, not bad for an insurance policy and what bank pays 4% on a savings account ? The rest of your calls were very good I must say. Credit counselors in BC recording record increases in credit maxed consumers. This will be the year of the big boom heard across BC as house prices get smoked and gold blows to new highs. There’s my two bits.

#38 coastal on 12.27.12 at 11:32 pm

#35 Rick and Zeus,

Was thinking the same, why all the easy union contract signings, especially in BC ? Can you say election time ? BC can’t vote that dumb ass corrupt bimbo out fast enough.

#39 Dace on 12.27.12 at 11:36 pm

For your predictions article on Monday, I’ll be interested to here your thoughts on:

CAD vs USD
TSX and S&P performance
outperforming segments of the stock market

And maybe just for jokes, who will end 2013 as Ontario’s premier.

#40 █ ♣ █ ANONYMOUS on 12.27.12 at 11:41 pm

HOLD ON TIGHT ! We’re going over the Fiscal Cliff !

Don’t get too excited. — Garth

#41 Sir Finance on 12.27.12 at 11:43 pm

Richard and Zeus
“I’m wondering why no one ever comments on this. Could it be this pathetic blog is full of……tax evading govt workers? ( govt workers do not pay taxes because you cannot pay tax on work funded by tax).”

Please tell me you’re not serious.

Also, you do a great job Garth! Thanks a bunch

#42 Smoking Man on 12.27.12 at 11:57 pm

#26 Hoof – Hearted on 12.27.12 at 10:37 pm

Most delete smoking man posts are Realtor impostors trying to ride my coat tails……………

Some are my drunken rants…..

Only the harry faced one knows for sure

#43 Bottoms_Up on 12.28.12 at 12:24 am

I predict Garth’s censored pages exceed 135 in 2013.

#44 Bottoms_Up on 12.28.12 at 12:28 am

#35 Richard and Zeus on 12.27.12 at 11:25 pm
—————————————————-
Don’t you know that the government outsources billions of dollars of work to the private sector — thus, outsourcing is paid for with ‘tax’ dollars, so it can’t be taxed either right? And therefore the wages of those in the private sector aren’t taxed. So just who is taxed?

#45 Kurt on 12.28.12 at 12:37 am

“Prediction: Most people won’t get it.”

Uh, score 1.

BTW, there’s a term for when people score themselves on their predictions, instead of weaseling out or pretending they didn’t make them. That word is integrity. Let’s see the people who wrote that abuse stand up and do the same. Oh wait, they don’t know the meaning of the word, which is why they wrote that garbage in the first place.

#46 45north on 12.28.12 at 12:54 am

Richard and Zeus: so do the salaries of useless govt pencil pushers while the tax payers that fund them……have not seen an increase in ten years.

Richard and Zeus – kind of schizophrenic

once upon a time there was a court case over tobacco. The court ordered the federal public service to preserve all records related to tobacco. As a result, all computers which were being junked had to be certified that they contained no records related to tobacco. Thousands and thousands of computers.

costs of the court order were substantial – funded by tax payers

#47 DonDWest on 12.28.12 at 12:58 am

My prediction: Real estate crashes 25% the next 6 months or so sending people into a rage.

For the first time in their pathetic lives, Canadians learn the word courage and gather outside of Carney’s doorstep chanting, “off with his head! Off with his head!” Night, day, rain, shine, etc. we stand outside of Carney’s home preventing him from fleeing to London.

Who I’m I kidding? As he leaves people will probably gloat that they managed to get in a friendly parting handshake. We’re a nation of wusses, but one can dream. . . One can dream. . .

#48 einsturzende neubauten on 12.28.12 at 1:01 am

Tried selling a condo there lately? — Garth

not that many downtown condos on market. good ones sell fast in spite of being at least 25% overpriced.

well, nothing wrong with renting i guess :-)

#49 JuliaS on 12.28.12 at 1:08 am

Every metalhead I know lives within his means, has no debt and typically has savings in things other than metals as well, but there’s no pleasing Garth. He automatically calls them “doomers”. I like gold and silver. I have some. I have no debt. I hate mortgages and I don’t think the world is about to end. Where do I fit in?

#50 earlybird on 12.28.12 at 1:22 am

Excellent as always, VERY thankful for your writing! As a serial reader, its nice to see originality and a great sense of humor on dry subjects. Happy New Year!

#51 Basil Fawlty on 12.28.12 at 1:27 am

Will the fact that the US Fed is now printing $85B per month affect the value of real assets in 2013?

#52 HDJ on 12.28.12 at 1:28 am

That ain’t no haiku. A haiku is a Japanese form of verse written in 17 syllables divided into 3 lines of 5, 7, and 5 syllables.

#53 greed on 12.28.12 at 1:32 am

My prediction the same losers are posting on this site and they post again in 2013.
Score: 1

#54 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.28.12 at 1:39 am

-
What Have We Learned in 2,066 Years?

“The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance (corruption) of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. A People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance.” — Cicero, 55 BC

“Evidently nothing”. However, pigs do fly.
*
#9 Frizzzz — “Wheres Nosty?” — Good question! Great reunion over the past few days, eating too much and having lotsa fun! It’s nice to see our two kids are now young men, well established in their own lives and making just as many cock-ups as we did when we were their age.

#20 Gogo — “Those who live by the crystal ball are destined to eat ground glass.” — Well put. Predictions are akin to farts in the wind, silent but deadly killers!

#147 jess on 12.27.12 at 7:31 pm — “would people opt out of facebook?” — See this and further links in for what’s happening. There may be something in the works, just from reading the second para. in the intro.
*
Soaring and Diving at the same time. Something is wrong here; Boxing Day Basket Case Wasting money by visiting, and Wasting Money using the ‘net; Capitalism and Mental Illness Going mad over money; 70K jobs at risk More climate change BS; Cutting Costs Germany exporting their nearly dead all across the land; Stem Cells Where big pharma makes its next stop; Grand Cayman Is Mitt Romney’s one of 19K corporations there? Pounding the Yen and GS and Japan “. . . to do more to end deflation and weaken the yen.” For what reasoon? Lagarde List Anything new from Greece? US$1.61 month Chinese wages, or what TPTB want to get working serfs down to; Consumer Confidence falls, but New Home Sales rise; Spain’s Bankia More losses; The Pentagon Gotta keep them sailors happy! 7:59 clip Gun confiscation, gun control and civil war in the US.
*
4:14 clip It’s a dog’s life, esp. for one with no front feet / paws, and Blind Dog and Guide Cat; Winning the lottery is not all it’s cracked up to be; 10:50 clip Something wrong with the sun? Guinness Never! Rip Van Winkle, the Sleeping Beauty; The UK is all wet; The Glass Menagerie (sort of); China Tightening ‘net controls; Bright Comet Esp. if it fries us; Superfoods, superherbs etc.; Tornado Pix Great place to clear one’s head of all the garbage in it.

#55 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 12.28.12 at 1:54 am

#140 joe calgary on 12.27.12 at 5:15 pm
#106 AKA Da

The reason cap rates make sense in Kelowna or Canada for that matter to you, is because rates are super low which wont last, and if you disregard prop tax, maintanance, ect. You can chirp this mantra to your realtor friends not the financially literate majority that visit this website.

Were you to contact any of my clients and ask, each would tell you I have told them to consider these current interest rates a short term gift and and it would be prudent of them to base any real estate decision they might make on the supposition that 7 to 8% would someday, sooner than the might think, prevail. The worst then that might happen is they’d have built in a good financial safety margin.

That said, the comment I made, that rents have gone up such that an investment in revenue properties is becoming a viable consideration, was based on the safety margin provided by using a 7.5% interest rate be it mortgage or opportunity cost on the whole of the investment including down payment.

#56 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 12.28.12 at 2:06 am

My prediction for 2013;

This pathetic blog will continue to predict just as it has in the past with none of those predictions quite coming to fruition. 2013 will end, just like this year, the one before it and the one before that, with the Blog Dawgs still then lamenting as they are today, were yesterday and last year “just wait… next year you’ll see”.

#57 Smartalox on 12.28.12 at 2:16 am

I had a crystal ball once…. All it ever forecast was snow.

#58 nocte_volens on 12.28.12 at 3:22 am

#37 Coastal
BC can’t vote that dumb ass corrupt bimbo out fast enough.

Yep. And we can vote in that dumb ass corrupt lowlife in her place and things will change.

#59 drydock on 12.28.12 at 3:36 am

#19 and #26

I was deleted once, it was about a combination dead baby chicken crossed the road joke.
It was brilliant in a twisted sort of way.
Dum dee dum dee dum……. ahh well.

#60 Mel on 12.28.12 at 3:55 am

The so-called Fiscal Cliff is a non-issue. It will eventually be resolved. Whatever it takes!

But, that is not what people should look forward to. There are more long term problems to worry about. If we care to look, we shall know what they are. So, I won’t bother repeating them.

For that reason, I am not optimistic about the world economy at all. As I have said many times, I do not agree with Garth’s optimistic assessment of the world economy.

Before we shall see higher interest rates, we shall first experience even lower interest rates FIRST. U.S. 10 year Treasuries will reach 1%, and 30 year will reach 2%. After that, get out!

All the easing by the Federal Reserve around the world is only buying time, not long term growth. Debt has become too big to cross. Only time will accomplish that, however, slow growth will be the outcome. And after calculating inflation, and budget deficits, there will be 0% growth for a very long time.

#61 Inflation Nation on 12.28.12 at 3:59 am

If you don’t think america has fallen and lost weight in the global markets, then you haven’t been paying attention to what China and the rest of the world is doing… America is significantly losing influence and its dollar is losing reserve currency status…

In 2012 China and Japan signed the biggest trade argeement that would trade in there local currencies bypassing the US dollar, the trade itself is worht 345 billion USD. Similar argreements have been made with China and Russia, India and Iran (trading in gold), China and brazil, china and chile, Russia and Iran, China and UAE.

The world is moving outside the US dollar for trade, and that in itself is a sign of things to come. The US dollar is dying fast, on top of that the BRIC countries are now organizing themselves to start using there own currencies in trade.

Also asset classes like gold and silver are up 10% this year.

Also got to give respect to Richard and Zeus post #35, you right on the money when you said, ” govt workers do not pay taxes because you cannot pay tax on work funded by tax”. The government sector is driving down Canadian society and prosperty, while telling everyone on how it wasn’t for the government we would be uncivilized…

#62 Freedom First on 12.28.12 at 4:07 am

Congratulations Garth! And I know that people who follow your investment advice can’t lose. Examples of proof of this fact: RE: if you go all in you are a fool. If you are leveraged to do this, you are a bigger fool. Stock Market: also, all in you are a fool. And buying any individual stocks without a 7 figure net worth, you are a bigger fool. Indexes and ETF’s only. Fixed income: all in, you are a fool. PM’s: all in, you are a fool, small percentage of net worth is ok. Garth’s investing formula discussed repeatedly with ratios included: always diversified, always balanced, always maintains liquidity…….rating: 5***** ……..it is the reason the RE industry, and others who want people “all in” what they are selling are so angry at Garth. And it is simple why this is too. Because Garth tells the truth.

Garth, have a great 2013! And may your hate mail volume double for 2013……as it will mean you have helped even more people:)

#63 Buy? Curious? on 12.28.12 at 4:29 am

Hey Garth, asswipe is such a lame word. I appreaite the work you do. I bought a place in May with the intention of selling in 13 years then buying a cheap place in Windsor. There I’ll keep my residencey but will travel to Thailand or Goa and live like a king. If there are any chicks that want to come along, you’re welcome to join me.

#64 futureexpatriate on 12.28.12 at 5:27 am

You rock.

#65 JB on 12.28.12 at 5:41 am

It is obvious that you were right to me. When prices grow in a manner in which a humble full time working Canadian is not able to pay his mortgage, there has to be something wrong with the whole market system.

Because we live in a capitalism, the easiest way how to moderate the situation is through price decrease. To fight a price decrease, the construction firms and developers will slow or stop the construction of new units. This will lead to further depression of the market and start a deflation. Oh wait. This is not actually happening (Toronto November Report). The sales are lower, the construction stops but the prices grow? What the heck?

Sooner or later, we will realize market economy based on perpetuating bubbles does not make sense at all.

#66 live within your means on 12.28.12 at 5:45 am

#35 Richard and Zeus on 12.27.12 at 11:25 pm
And while prices of cost of living stuff goes up…..so do the salaries of useless govt pencil pushers while the tax payers that fund them……have not seen an increase in ten years.

I’m wondering why no one ever comments on this. Could it be this pathetic blog is full of……tax evading govt workers? ( govt workers do not pay taxes because you cannot pay tax on work funded by tax).
…………………………..

What a load of garbage. You sound like a REALLY jealous, ignorant dude.

#67 Devore on 12.28.12 at 6:18 am

#36⁠ coastal

Gold 1 year, up $30 CDN, less than 2%, year to date even less than that. I know of some banks that will beat that, as will any preferred share return.

#68 The real Kip on 12.28.12 at 7:02 am

You’ve been predicting interest rates will rise for 4-years I’ve been reading this blog. So far they’ve dropped, score minus 4, so overall, you get an F for fail.

BoC rates have not dropped since 2009 and in fact increased in 2010. The 30-year am cut in 2012 effectively increased borrowing costs by almost a full point. F for reading comprehension. — Garth

#69 live within your means on 12.28.12 at 7:23 am

Retirement is different for everyone

One day, while going to the shop, I passed by a retirement village. On the front lawn were six old ladies, lying naked on the grass.

I thought this was a bit unusual, but continued on my way.

On my return trip, I passed the same retirement village with the same six old ladies lying naked on the lawn. This time my curiosity got the better of me and I went inside to talk to the retirement village Administrator, and asked her:

“Do you know there are six ladies lying naked on your front lawn?”
“Yes,” she said, “aren’t they darlings?” “They’re retired prostitutes ……..they’re having a yard sale. ”
………………

If you don’t post this Garth I’ll understand. I thought it was funny.

PS – Damn snow plow woke me up at 5 am. I’d been a zombie for days due to lack of sleep. I don’t want to take meds tho a ‘puff’ 1 night put to sleep for an hour or so.

Snow plow went twice on our st. – it rained after it snowed today – so his ‘blade’? scraped the street & was very loud. I’ll be calling city hall to complain. It’s ridiculous. Snow plowing is contracted out here. This is not the 1st time this has happened.

#70 Picasso on 12.28.12 at 7:43 am

I’ll be on my death bed still waiting for the so called “drop” to happen. lol

I regret your fragile condition. Almost. — Garth

#71 Picasso on 12.28.12 at 9:38 am

71 Picasso on 12.28.12 at 7:43 am
I’ll be on my death bed still waiting for the so called “drop” to happen. lol

I regret your fragile condition. Almost. — Garth
………………………………………………………………..

That hit a nerve Garth? Don’t worry, the subscription level doesn’t seem to be dropping. Hell i’m still around and I think it’s been 5 years now.

No nerve. Just constantly surprised at the blinkers. — Garth

#72 House on 12.28.12 at 10:07 am

As say to Politicians, Cable providers, Internet Providers, Phone providers and Power suppliers and now Real Estate Agents:

Price Gouging is NOT a victimless crime!

#73 Not 1st on 12.28.12 at 10:25 am

Garth how about a predicition on the good ol USA? The fiscal cliff is just what they need right now but alas I suspect there will be a kick the can deal again. US debt will be 20 trillion by 2016. Unfunded liabilities north of 100 trillion. This is the great beacon of capitalism? More like banana republic.

#74 The American on 12.28.12 at 10:26 am

At #62: Inflation Nation, have you stopped to ask yourself WHY the dollar is losing value? Have you considered it is completely engineered and it is one of the primary contributiting factors as to why the U.S. is now more competitive against the likes of China. For the record, it is no secret that China for YEARS has been artificially deflating its currency’s value by up to 40% in order to allow them a leg up on the exports markets. Those days aren’t over, per se, but the gap is closing and closing quickly as the USD devalues. It is deliberate. Plain and simple. It also allows the U.S. opportunity to repay China in USD (as the agreements have typically been drafted) more easily. Sure, China is pissed, but who gives a rat’s ass! How does that old saying go again? Oh yes… All is fair in love and war. Look, if you are going to cheat from square one and devalue your currency, and even after being given warning after warning to stop that behavior, then you had better expect your competition to play dirty too. Coincedentially, it is providing opportunity to bring U.S.-based companies back to, eh hem, the U.S. Jeesh! What a f&cking concept! I continually read on this blog and almost spit my morning coffee out how Americans are working for minimum wage and their house costs $100,000. What the f&ck are they teaching you up there in Canada? This is total B.S. It may be the case in only a couple of instances, but overall, Americans have ALWAYS earned more than Canadians while Americans enjoy a lower cost of living and lower tax basis. Do the math. Americans have significantly more expendable income than Canadians. For example, according to the UAW (United Auto Workers) union, the average worker TODAY earns about $40/hour, inclusive of benefits of 401K, healthcare, and pension. Back out the benefits, and it is about $29/hour each worker earns. Houses in only a handful of markets within the U.S. cost $100,000 these days. Markets HAVE IMPROVED and improved significantly over the past 18 months, depending on location. Expect to pay between $170,000-$250,000 in the markets for a decent home where these U.S. companies are returning to their roots.

#75 The American on 12.28.12 at 10:28 am

At #72: And although the dollar has declined in value (quite deliberately, mind you), Americans in general have little difficulty reconciling the value of the USD as long as they remain within the borders of the U.S., which they typically do unless they are traveling on vacation.

#76 DA aka Mis-information Man on 12.28.12 at 10:52 am

#56 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate,

I’m a renter in Kelowna, at Barona Beach during the summer… I winter at my home in Florida. I can afford any house I want in Canada, but the housing affordability index for Canada plainly says not to buy anything. Currently in Barona Beach there is over 42 units for sale, the landlords are running for the exit. In the summer I rent a $701,000, 2 bedroom / 2.5 bathroom condo on the beach all utilities included in that condo complex for $1050 a month. I’ve been doing that ever since I retired and came back to Canada from the States. In Kelowna landlords who bought since 2005 are eating their shirts, don’t tell me about cap rates being great. If you want great cap rates (22%), buy a decent 16 unit apartment building in Chicago for less than the price of a condo in Kelowna! I’ve been tracking housing for 3 years in Kelowna since the time I returned via a spreadsheet using the MLS, its dropping like a rock there. Foreclosures are up and increasing…if Ottawa doesn’t start playing with housing again you’ll see even greater price decreases. Its people like you DA that should be charged with fraud, your type of hyperboles caused a lot of people in the States to lose their homes. That is exactly what will happen here in Canada, its just a matter of time. In the States it took 7 years to bottom out, it has barely begun here. DA you’re are so full of mis-information, you’ve got to be wiping your mouth every few minutes, try to be honest and ethical. It’ll be refreshing for the readers of this blog.

#77 live within your means on 12.28.12 at 10:53 am

#55 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.28.12 at 1:39 am

#9 Frizzzz — “Wheres Nosty?” — Good question! Great reunion over the past few days, eating too much and having lotsa fun! It’s nice to see our two kids are now young men, well established in their own lives and making just as many cock-ups as we did when we were their age.
…………….

So true, Nosty. No regrets about my screw ups. Life is, hopefully, about learning from past mistakes.

#78 Aussie Roy on 12.28.12 at 10:58 am

Aussie Update

What happens when you don’t agree with the MSM about housing?.

Greg Canavan is a charlatan.

At least according to property market commentator Terry Ryder in an article published this month in Property Observer.

Ryder says anyone who claims to be able to predict what the nation’s property market will look like in 2013 is a ‘charlatan’.

Greg makes a compelling case for property prices starting to go down, pretty much everywhere. He’s spent the best part of the year on a report that traces the fuse of the global financial crisis to its final destination…right here in Australia. To the housing market…and then the banks.

The conventional view is that we managed to avoid the carnage playing out in the rest of the world because of better economic management, better regulation in the banking sector, and, of course, the China boom.

As Greg shows, that view is very, very wrong.

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/confessions-of-a-charlatan/2012/12/28/

#79 Aussie Roy on 12.28.12 at 11:09 am

Northern Ireland Property bubble explained

A fascinating and comprehensive insight into Northern Ireland’s housing market in this presentation by Richard Ramsey.

Did you know that Northern Ireland is building fewer homes per capita than at any time since 1949? Or that the value of NI residential property transactions has fallen from £7billion per annum in 2007 to £1.26bn today? These are just a couple of the many nuggets in there.

http://www.jprblogwire.com/2012/12/ni-housing-market-explained.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

#80 Stoopid Idiot on 12.28.12 at 11:24 am

We will not be immune to the fall out regardless of how inferior we may think we are. 70% of Canadian GDP is derived from the service sector, this will bode poorly. As far as the fiscal cliff goes, why is this time different than all the time in the past that they have raised the ceiling? Print it like always (inflation is the hidden tax of the stooped)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=wWkUaJId7pM

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ca.html

#81 Form Man on 12.28.12 at 11:40 am

#77 ( DA put in his place )

Spot-on analysis of the Kelowna rental market and the daily fraud and misinformation practiced by the local real estate industry.

#82 phinny on 12.28.12 at 11:42 am

All good stuff – BUT – If you’re right on the fiscal slope nonsense, then I’ll do a macarena.

#83 Franke le Skank on 12.28.12 at 11:48 am

#77 DA aka Mis-information Man on 12.28.12 at 10:52 am
This is my favorite Anti-DA posting! Bravo!

#84 John Prine on 12.28.12 at 11:51 am

Vancouver East and West. Completed sales for December.

2010 560 sales

2011 521 sales

2012 332 sales (to 28th)

SFH between 1 and 2 million sold for an average of $267,000 less than original asking price of last time listed. This doesn’t bode well for 2013.

#85 martin9999 on 12.28.12 at 11:53 am

funny thing, 3 days to the cliff and nobody cares

this optimism is a bit to much i think

There is no cliff. More like a pebbly slope. It will get fixed. This week. Next week. Next month. Whenever. — Garth

#86 Mayan Calendar 2012 on 12.28.12 at 11:59 am

Anybody got some white-out? (politically correct version)

Boxing Day sale went bad….I want to change the last number

#87 HogtownIndebted on 12.28.12 at 12:07 pm

2013 Brings New Employment Opportunities for Realtards

It ain’t all bad if RE weasels keep their chins up and try to do something useful in life. Here’s a story of an agent and mortgage broker who have apparently survived the US crash by doing something useful (aka not parasitic/lazy/fraudulent) with their energies:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100301522/Mamma_Mia_How_Pizza_Beer_Saved_a_Home_Brewers039_Home

I walked into an open house this week in C2 Toronto and the obviously rookie agent kept blabbering about “investment value” for a run down shack with only one bathroom, unfinished basement and fifty years of one family whose last uneven and drafty renovation was fifty years ago. (But they do have a granite countertop now – keep it in yer pants, virgins) He looked dumbstruck when I suggested that RE may not be an “investment” value option until later this decade.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12688022&PidKey=-738212232

So, blog dogs – any other suggestions for post-2012 employment for real estate types?

Hmmm….let me start the ball rolling:

How about…..

-doggie day care bum wipers
-elfin deity brow moppers
-recycling bin bottle scouts (they can charge 5% commission to vagrants, but they may object to the actual effort involved)

Endless opportunities await realtors!

#88 Just sayin' on 12.28.12 at 12:11 pm

As I enjoy today’s post, I idly note out of the corner of my eye that the damned dog is dragging his doctor Wayne across the shag carpet again. His Wayne must be itchy again. I’ll have to pick up some pills for him.

#89 not 1st on 12.28.12 at 12:20 pm

#75 The American

Did you ever consider that the U.S. has higher per income capita than other countries as you mention because its citizens are being sheltered from the true cost of their lifestyle. I mean what else is feeding a 16 trillion dollar debt and 100 trillion unfunded liabilities?

Oh, you mean like with free health care in Canada, which actually costs $207 billion? — Garth

#90 EIT on 12.28.12 at 12:20 pm

Garth does this mean my ‘BUY SILVER CRASH JP MORGAN’ is on your naughty comments list?

You think that was worth saving? — Garth

#91 futureexpatriate on 12.28.12 at 12:24 pm

I predict…. that the car in the pic is parked by the road, and there’s an unseen car ON the road to the left out of view going 99 mph. (Guessing mph because of the 35 posted speed.)

And the photog should have at least moved the automatic transmission gear selector out of park (high placement) and into drive (low placement.) Emergency break and car NOT RUNNING would have been sufficient for safety.

Although God help them if that car barreling along at 99 isn’t someone they know, is drunk, and hits the back of their car. We’ve seen it hundreds of times in cop’s camera footage.

And I predict in the coming year I WILL get a life or else.

Happy Holidays one and all!

#92 Jeff on 12.28.12 at 12:27 pm

I am so eager to see your 2013 predictions. You’ve got a good vision of 2012.

#93 Gunboat denier on 12.28.12 at 1:04 pm

50 Julia S

Garth doesnt hate metals. He hates a speculative “all-in”
portfolio.

Garth doesnt hate RE. He hates over-priced, over-leveraged, illiquid assets.

Garth doesnt hate GICs. He hates low-return, tax inefficient, illiquid investments.

See also Freedom first @63.

Happy new year.

#94 randman on 12.28.12 at 1:16 pm

Julia..

“Every metalhead I know lives within his means, has no debt and typically has savings in things other than metals as well, but there’s no pleasing Garth. He automatically calls them “doomers”. I like gold and silver. I have some. I have no debt. I hate mortgages and I don’t think the world is about to end. Where do I fit in?”

As one of the smartest people on this redunculous blog?

#95 Mister Obvious on 12.28.12 at 1:24 pm

It’s one thing to be called a ‘chickenshit cockroach’ but ‘a sawed-off has-been’ really is crossing the line, n’est pas?

Today we have a rare glimpse underneath those occasional “DELETED” posts. I’ve often wondered what causes a man notoriously lenient with sociopathic vitriol to quash a comment. It’s enlightening to see a few real world examples.

And there you have the real service provided by Garth Turner. Sure, he offers an ‘alternative’ financial outlook not usually seen in the MSM plus a relatively large forum to throw such ideas about.

But more importantly, he is a non-anonymous flak taker for the hostile, illiterate fire that would surely come my way had I the nerve and opportunity to espouse, publically, unpopular (but essentially correct) views. To him, I owe my cowardice.

#96 house burden on 12.28.12 at 1:30 pm

As Canadian debt rise exponentially, to 164.5, and the housing prices frozen / and perhaps will fall over the coming years. When will Canadian come to grips with their financial problems.

At the beginning of last year, we were at 150. That is a 14.5 percent rise and no recorded housing price drops. So 2013 I expect to see asset values decline and more debt piled up. Together I can see Canadian debt going to 190.

It will be interesting what the government will do. Will they devalue and print or like hell (like in the USA). Will they cause a debt hangover and take care of the the real debt problem?

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/canadian-consumer-debt-climbs-to-record-levels-in-2012-1.1093975

#97 Investx on 12.28.12 at 1:32 pm

69 The real Kip:
You’ve been predicting interest rates will rise for 4-years I’ve been reading this blog. So far they’ve dropped, score minus 4, so overall, you get an F for fail.

BoC rates have not dropped since 2009 and in fact increased in 2010. The 30-year am cut in 2012 effectively increased borrowing costs by almost a full point. F for reading comprehension. — Garth
.
—————————-

Oh come on Garth, you’re really grasping there. Accept you were wrong about rising interest rates.

Can you not read? “Instead of raising interest rates two quarter points, he scolded Canadians for their profligate ways, then took a job in England for $1 million a year. Score 0.” — Garth

#98 claudius emperor on 12.28.12 at 1:33 pm

Oh, you mean like with free health care in Canada, which actually costs $207 billion? — Garth
————————–
This does not include any additional health and disability insurance ($500 per month for my family between myself and my employer) and I still pay in addition when I go to the dentist.
Still pay for over the counter drugs.

Free, you say?

#99 Spiltbongwater on 12.28.12 at 1:40 pm

Tax increases in stealth mode? British Columbia Basic Personal Deduction has been reduced by $1078 per year.

#100 MutiCult on 12.28.12 at 1:44 pm

Garth if you are predicting interest rates to rise, does that not mean a bond bubble burst ?

#101 NFN_NLN on 12.28.12 at 1:47 pm

#86 martin9999 on 12.28.12 at 11:53 am

funny thing, 3 days to the cliff and nobody cares

this optimism is a bit to much i think

There is no cliff. More like a pebbly slope. It will get fixed. This week. Next week. Next month. Whenever. — Garth

There is a default option of “raise taxes and reduce spending” that automatically kicks in. This is what they should be doing anyways! Why not just run the clock and let it happen while blaming each other for not compromising.

The US gets what it needs and no single politician is to blame for actually taking the allowance away from the spoiled children.

#102 joe on 12.28.12 at 1:49 pm

#57 AKA DA
My prediction is that in 2013 you will still ignore the fundamentals, and will be one closer to being unemployed. Real Estate in Kelowna and Calgary has been a rotten investment since 2009 there is no denying that. You can pump all you want, its better to rent today and wait to see what happens.

#103 Stew on 12.28.12 at 1:59 pm

Garth,
You’re completely delusional about US real estate beginning it’s ascent. With new taxes coming, on Jan 1st, you’ll find this as a blip on the radar screen, on the way down. Sort of like every stock that collapses, they have a dead cat bounce. If you look at the chart since 2006 you’ll see the “bounce” over and over again as it collapses…the lows get lower..do some research you’re preaching the propaganda of the media to uplift the FALSE market..

#104 Stew on 12.28.12 at 2:59 pm

ProPublica: Govt Now Runs the US Mortgage Marketplace
Friday, 21 Dec 2012 07:45 AM
By John Morgan

The American home mortgage market has, for all practical purposes, become nationalized since the 2008 financial meltdown, according to an analysis by ProPublica, the non-profit investigative journalism project.

The takeover, without which the housing market could barely function, has occurred against a backdrop of little planning or public discussion.

In fact, nine out of every 10 new mortgages are now backed by the U.S. taxpayer, up from three in 10 in 2006.

“It is creeping nationalism,” said Jim Millstein, an investment banker and former Treasury official in the Obama administration.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the taxpayer-supported housing giants, alone guaranteed 69 percent of new mortgages in the first nine months of 2012.

#105 Patiently Waiting on 12.28.12 at 3:23 pm

#82Form Man on 12.28.12 at 11:40 am
#77 ( DA put in his place )

Spot-on analysis of the Kelowna rental market and the daily fraud and misinformation practiced by the local real estate industry.
—————————————————————–

I have spent a fair bit of time in Kelowna in the past year and can verify that Form Man is correct, the Kelowna market is dead – especially the high end of the market. Prices are still going down, and those that are too stubborn to reduce simply sit unsold. I put an offer on a place about a year ago and was rebuffed … the house is now under foreclosure and I could buy it for quite a bit less if I was still interested …

pw

#106 hangfire on 12.28.12 at 3:33 pm

Wow…you get abuse like that..and you censor me for reprinting public information that outs the truth about stupidity on the left that negatively effects our economy ? ….geez Garth….how about some prioritization…maybe cut down on the sauce in the new year.

We’ve just been informed that F will add another $50 billion to public debt through the subsidization of second tier borrowers who don’t qualify for a standard mortgage….how much paper will Canada have to print this year to cover the nut…think about it. We also recieved after hours on Friday the news that all taxation has gone up on services for the Free Medical’ we recieve. Well…it’s not so free when it costs $1600 per year for MSP premiums in BC when I can get a private policy in Texas for $1200…which will provide me better access…..the politics of the Canadian left won’t admit to be wrong on the health care file.

We’ve allowed the wacko left to be underwritten by Saudi and American to wail against our energy infrastructure that would add trillions to the tax base and build schools,feed the hungry and house seniors….and shudder…even provide riase to the greedy civil servants…let alone provide jobs to Canadians for stuff like homes and investing in things like balanced portfolio’s for retirement.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/12/27/year-in-ideas-how-vital-oil-infrastructure-became-a-villain-in-canada/

Instead..what do we fiscally responsible citizens get for our trouble? Bad mouthing…censorship from the pinko media….and an outpouring of lies and at best the limp efforts of blog pundits to expose the truth so that this country in all aspects can move forward. I’m not going to disparage you sir…..I am an optimist and have hope you’ll wake up some day and grow some Canadian values……and shake off the CBC/PC tarp that seems to have fallen over your head….Best of luck in the New Year…..I’ll be back.

#107 DondWest on 12.28.12 at 3:33 pm

I will say Garth doesn’t understand “the doomer” philosophy. I’ve been accused of being a doomer on a few occasions. The philosophy is simple enough: Prepare for the worst, if the worst doesn’t come, you’ve just profited.

Doomers generally frown from buying real estate (unless thay can come up with a 50% downpayment or greater) because in most cases you’re essentially putting a lot of money into an asset you don’t even own. Not to mention governments get into the habit of using real estate as a means of controling the populace.

#108 Blasé on 12.28.12 at 3:38 pm

love your posts American!

#109 jess on 12.28.12 at 3:56 pm

#13 house hunter

… like the cat in the box ..it is alive and dead

“no such thing as bad publicity? huh?

Then why all the $$$ spent to protect “reputation” eg. banking /brands whether good quality or bad?

http://www.historyisaweapon.com/defcon1/zinnbaron11.html

…”While some multimillionaires started in poverty, most did not. A study of the origins of 303 textile, railroad, and steel executives of the 1870s showed that 90 percent came from middle- or upper-class families. The Horatio Alger stories of “rags to riches” were true for a few men, but mostly a myth, and a useful myth for control.

Most of the fortune building was done legally, with the collaboration of the government and the courts. Sometimes the collaboration had to be paid for. Thomas Edison promised New Jersey politicians $1,000 each in return for favorable legislation. Daniel Drew and Jay Gould spent $1 million to bribe the New York legislature to legalize their issue of $8 million in “watered stock” (stock not representing real value) on the Erie Railroad.

The first transcontinental railroad was built with blood, sweat, politics and thievery, out of the meeting of the Union Pacific and Central Pacific railroads. The Central Pacific started on the West Coast going east; it spent $200,000 in Washington on bribes to get 9 million acres of free land and $24 million in bonds, and paid $79 million, an overpayment of $36 million, to a construction company which really was its own. The construction was done by three thousand Irish and ten thousand Chinese, over a period of four years, working for one or two dollars a day. “

#110 Doug in London on 12.28.12 at 4:06 pm

@DondWest, post #109:
Governments in the habit of using real estate to control the populace you say? Please explain. I don’t recall anyone in government ever forcing me to sign the papers to buy a grossly overpriced home I didn’t want or couldn’t afford.
On that subject I keep hearing and reading repotrs about places like Alberta where they can’t find enough people to fill the job vacancies, while here in the east we struggle with high unemployment. If there are really that many unfilled jobs shouldn’t government be discouraging home ownership, especially for younger people, to increase worker mobility to fill those jobs? Wouldn’t that be a good thing for the economy?

#111 Alan on 12.28.12 at 4:30 pm

The great thing about having your own blog is you get to re-write history. Good Job Garth!

Every word I have written is here to read. And unlike you, I’m not anonymous. — Garth

#112 Kelowna renter on 12.28.12 at 4:56 pm

I rent a carriage house in the Wilden neighbourhood in Kelowna. The owners have been trying to sell for 7 months I think.

These houses traded for high 700s to approx 1 million depending on size and view as recently as 2010.

Last sale was 535K in this neck of the woods.

Mr or Mrs DA, your statistics are like a bikini, reveal something interesting, completely hide something vital.

Thank you for your efforts Mr Turner. If you are ‘wrong’ about something, I feel that it is because even you cannot fathom or predict the complete bass-ackwardness of this bizarre Harper Regime.

#113 █ ♣ █ ANONYMOUS on 12.28.12 at 5:09 pm

That’s it: no agreement on the Fiscal Cliff.

Technically they have run out of time for an agreement.

Futures for next week = DOW down 5.1% at the open.

That would be sweet. — Garth

#114 Canadian Watchdog on 12.28.12 at 6:09 pm

Weekend must read comprehensive report regarding TREB’s manipulation.

Expert report by Gregory S. Vistnes, Ph.D. PDF Link

Hopefully Garth will keep revisiting this issue in 2013. This could be a major game changer for real estate.

#115 HogtownIndebted on 12.28.12 at 6:26 pm

Just heard Scott Hannah of the credit counselling people describe how their fastest growing client base is those 55+, people who have used their homes as ATMS as discussed here and are now unable to even think about stopping working.

This group now makes up a worrisome 20% of their total clientele, a five fold increase over the last decade or so. The phones there are ringing constantly now with these poor folks calling in, Hannah said.

Precisely how we can possibly have orderly retirements, advancement of younger workers, new buyers for inflated-value homes and debt repayment is looking mysteriouser and mysteriouser.

http://www.nomoredebts.org/

#116 hangfire on 12.28.12 at 6:39 pm

#116 …”That’s it: no agreement on the Fiscal Cliff.

Technically they have run out of time for an agreement.

Futures for next week = DOW down 5.1% at the open.

That would be sweet. — Garth

On this I agree….the expected Obama Crash is exactly the right time for the first of the year investments in RRSP and TFSA tranches.

As a long term investor I can buy across the trough of the Obama administration at cheapo prices to reap the benefits when responsible government returns in 5 years…Patience and the Macro Overview is a must in investing……You have to feel sorry for anyone who is forced to sell into the Obama years though.

The only ones who will not care about the timing of this is the indexed/DB brat pack elites in the civil service .

I call them the Marie Antionettes of the world. However…as all things in history tend to rhyme back to the median after their time in the sun….we’ll see the fat union zealots marched onto the gallows and have their heads handed back to the mob…apropo…to say the least.

#117 The Prophet Elijah on 12.28.12 at 6:41 pm

LOST GLOBAL RESERVE STATUS

The described isolation on numerous fronts, whether trade or COMEX or banks, all work toward the elimination of the toxic agent in the USDollar. The world wants a more just, more functional, more efficient, more equitable global trade system. The United States has abused its global reserve custodian position too long. The world is fighting vigorously to remove it. The usage of the USDollar as a credit card to finance its consumption binge without ability to pay will come to an end. The usage of the USDollar as a device to enable powerful aggression in war to advance syndicate interests like vertically integrated narcotics will come to an end. The usage of the USDollar as a banking monopoly device will come to an end. The usage of the USDollar as an instrument for bond fraud will come to an end. The usage of the USDollar as a free lunch device to finance the USGovt deficit will come to an end. When the USDollar is no longer the global reserve currency, the door to the Third World will be opened wide. When the USDollar is no longer the global reserve currency, the supply lines will be interrupted to the USEconomy, giving off a prominent Third World stench. When the USDollar is no longer the global reserve currency, the price inflation effect will become a national topic of grand debate and extreme anger. When the USDollar is no longer the global reserve currency, the United States as a nation will experience tremendous additional isolation and hardship, as most Third World nations do. The level of corruption within the USGovt and US banking corner offices is already far more entrenched than any Third World nation. The vote fraud for US national elections is equally prevalent, but more sophisticated.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jim-willie/coming-isolation-us-dollar

The American – the US is way past just devaluing the dollar in terms of global trade, very good article for those who care to read.

#118 Telecon on 12.28.12 at 6:51 pm

#105 TRT

Sounds like your neighbours must have inherited their fortune if they fed you full of that financial nonsense. I guess from their perspective, if a nice Soviet family could afford two loaves of bread a week but their neighbours cold only afford one, well then who cares what the Politburo decreed that year, they’re rich!

#119 Picasso on 12.28.12 at 7:01 pm

U.S. to Become the World’s Top Oil Producer by 2020 — Oil Imports to Fall by More Than 50% Within the Next Decade

Alberta better build that pipeline through the mountains to the west coast for the Chinese.

#120 Cici on 12.28.12 at 7:40 pm

@Vatodeth

That’s a pretty bold statement.

But, if he’s an idiot savant, you’re just a plain idiot.

#121 Cici on 12.28.12 at 7:46 pm

Oh by the way, Garth. Were you at the Concorde hotel in Quebec City on Christmas Day? I could have sworn I saw you in the lobby. If not, you have a bearded doppelganger who may or may not be trying to steal your show (Smoking Man, perhaps? He doesn’t seem trustworthy!).

#122 futureexpatriate on 12.28.12 at 8:09 pm

#104 – Silly man. There are no new taxes coming on anyone but those who make more than $250,000, and that’s AFTER the FIRST $250,000 they make. That’s rich in my book, and the rich buy in the Cayman Islands, not rundown rentals in major US cities.

#123 Herb on 12.28.12 at 10:11 pm

#109 Hangfire,

“… an outpouring of lies …”

well, you’re always good for that.

#124 Cici on 12.29.12 at 1:36 am

#36 – Smoking Man

OK, Smoking Man, back to you. I checked out your story idea, and think it has great potential as a novel or especially, a film.

Hope you find the support you need to carry it off. I’ll read it, for sure. Just wish you would hit the pen and paper harder than than/instead of the bottle. Please get over that and all of the injustices life has thrown at you. My sister is dyslexic too, and struggled with school until one day in early adulthood she decided she wasn’t going to take it any more. She got herself a fancy palm pilot with an electronic spell checker/dictionary/thesaurus, and confronted the profs who didn’t understand that not being able to spell is not synonymous to being one dumb. She challenged them to grade her according to every other aspect of her work apart from her spelling, and got through university with a straight-A average, all the while raising a toddler as a single parent. She also did some creative writing classes and art classes, and excelled at both because her brain is wired to think abstractly, and out of the box.
So hey, forgive those rotten teachers. They weren’t trying to hurt you, probably actually the opposite. They wanted to help you but they didn’t have the right knowledge or understanding to know how. Point is no one is perfect, we need both linear and abstract thinkers on this earth, and we’re all still learning, every single minute of every single day. No one is perfect yet, nor ever will be.
Happy 2013, hope you get that story completed to your satisfaction, and hope it brings you great joy and pride, whether or not it makes the best-seller list.

#125 a fan on 12.29.12 at 2:25 am

#109 Hangfire,

why are you always so angry?

#126 Richard and Zeus on 12.29.12 at 3:28 am

#67

Busted overpaid useless govt worker…..

#127 cynically on 12.29.12 at 4:25 am

#74 Not 1st – it took you 5 lines to show your total ignorance about the US. They have faults as do most countries including Canada but they have a spirit that keeps them on top and will get them out of the present financial morass and I’m not too sure 3rd level Canada would make it out of the same situation if it ever had the clout in world affairs both financial and political. I suggest you read #75, the next posting after yours, with an open mind and you might learn something and I’ll tell you right now that the Americans will recover either before or after the Fiscal Cliff while we’re wallowing in our self-made recession.

#128 The American on 12.29.12 at 8:05 am

At #120: Profit Elijah, you should stick to your day job. The USD will remain the global reserve currency until you’re dead. Laugh it away. By the way, China and Japan bypassing the USD in their trade… hmmmm. How’s that working out for ‘em? :-) They’re ready to go to war with one another. Good luck with that. Think of the USD much like a standby letter of credit when sh*t like that happens. I’d have to educate you what that is, though, I’m sure.

#129 kreditanstalt on 12.29.12 at 6:32 pm

“Those who root for the collapse of America think this fiscal cliff means something.”

Where’d you get this idea?

We’re “doomers” precisely because the situation has been hopeless for a long, long time.

Then you sure are wasting your lives. — Garth

#130 vatoDETH on 12.29.12 at 11:25 pm

#123 Cici – LOL! Yes, I was just playing!

It’s called a sense of humour and a play on words! Since so many of Garth’s detractors call him an idiot, etc. I think Garth gets it, since he actually posted my comment.

Have a Great New Year All!

#131 Tony on 12.30.12 at 1:33 pm

Only time will tell if housing has bottomed in America. I don’t see signs of a bottom yet. Many Canadians actually think they made money after they sold American stocks only to find out they actually lost money when they converted the American dollars back to Canadian dollars. In fact people bought American stocks when the Canadian dollar was only worth around 63 cents U.S. Now when we see the dump side of pump and dump (something that must have been negated due to an election last year) those unfortunate Canadians will be all but be wiped out financially.

#132 Intuitive Missus on 12.30.12 at 6:52 pm

Garth, when will Money Road be back in print. I have an order for two copies when it is ready :)

I am planning to retire at the end of next year so I am really looking forward to your predictions for 2013.

We feel very fortunate. When I was very young I started working for a very good company and I have been there ever since. I have never been afraid of hard work nor have I ever been afraid to learn new things. In the 39+ years I’ve been there, I’ve had many jobs with the same employer. I know, it is a rare event these days. As a result, I do have a DB pension plan that I’ve been paying into for 37+ years. My husband has a DC pension plan that he’s been paying into for 33+ years. We’ve also managed to put some money into RRSP’s. And we sold the big family home last year when we thought the market had gone into the price stratosphere. Of course the craziness continued. But at last it seems to have finally stopped. We are so relieved we trusted our instincts. We have been renting since June 2011 and are so relieved to be out of the market now. No stress whatsoever. We may buy again at some point but it will be something small and uber-functional with everything we need on one level – and no it won’t be a condo. From what we’ve seen, that is a bigger money pit than a house. We have two adult children still living at home and ready to move out on their own in 2013. They will be renting until it makes sense to do otherwise. We advised them to stay out of the market when their friends were buying over the past 2 years. Glad they listened. They are in good shape and not tied down if their careers take them elsewhere.

Keep up the great work you do. It is sincerely appreciated. I have learned so much from your writing and also from my fellow readers and posters.

Two worthy of mention are – Canadian Watchdog. Great work. I am a data junkie. And Linda Pearson – you write so eloquently what is on MY mind. Your last posting about separate bank accounts made me laugh.

Happy New Year to all.