Blogoscopy

ER

Jimmy’s proof that being a doctor and an idiot are not mutually exclusive. He even admits it. “After reading your blog for several months and feeling like a complete idiot I’ve been compelled to email you my financial situation hoping you could steer me in a better direction.”

You betcha, Dr. Jim. This pathetic blog is all about healing. It has amazing restorative powers. Merely reading these words to a horny spouse, all juiced up on HGTV, will turn her icy cold, completely hostile and absolutely cured of any fuzzies she had for you eight minutes earlier. (For most men that’s more than enough time, fortunately.)

Like many medical professionals (myself excluded, of course), doctors have way more money than they know what to do with, make appalling decisions – especially with love and real estate – and end up with a bald spot and their Canada Revenue Agency auditor on speed dial. Plus several ex-wives. Without a doubt, Dr. Jimmy’s on that path, and needs a big dose of blog therapy. Strip to skivvies, my learned colleague. This won’t hurt a bit. Almost.

While he does that, let’s review the latest news.

Days ago I brought you the headlines from Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver of falling sales volumes and crashing condos. The same can be said of most markets, including Edmonton (sales down 21%, ditto for value of homes sold), Regina (27% fewer deals), Hamilton (sales lower by 11%), Oakville (a 29% crumble) and Halifax (tanking 32%). Winnipeg is off by single-digits, while Calgary still thinks it’s different there.

Sales and prices have faded since the Spring, of course (as I detailed yesterday with 416), but year-over-year comparisons also underscore what so many realtors and sellers are living every day. Houses are far more illiquid than in the late autumn of 2011, with momentum and buyer sentiment draining out of the market. As you know, sales fall first, followed by prices. The fact we are in the eighth consecutive month of declining deals across Canada should tell you something, even if you have a medical degree and a Boxster.

Now a measure of home prices is flashing red. In fact, says the Teranet-National Bank Home Price Index, “For the first time since February 2009, when the recession was in full swing, prices were down from the month before in 10 of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed.”

Just to remind you, that was a few weeks before stock markets spiraled to their lowest point in the midst of the GFC, the Canadian housing market ground to a virtual stop, and investors capitulated. In fact the greatest wave of selling ever for stocks and mutual funds came on the afternoon of March 9th, 2009 – the moment with the least risk possible, and the fewest people buying.

In that environment, real estate was cooked because sentiment and momentum were overwhelmingly negative. So, is that where we’re headed?

T-NB says prices have now dropped for four consecutive months in Victoria and Quebec City, for three straight months in Montreal and Ottawa and for the past two in Toronto and Halifax. They’ve fallen month-over-month in Vancouver, Edmonton, Hamilton and Winnipeg. Year-over-year, prices are still ahead in many places (which real estate boards trumpet), but that means little when those gains are being whittled away daily.

For example, it’s estimated that the price of a home in westside Vancouver is falling by $1,000 a day, and a swanky condo was recently listed at False Creek for 47% less than its provincially-appraised value. How is it not obvious where major markets are headed?

But back to Dr. Jim, now naked on the slab, his eyes darting from my left hand, cradling the suction cup, to my right, which holds the probe. Reaching for the fluid-barrier mask, I ask sweetly, “Are you ready to confess?”

“I completed medical school and residency in Winnipeg with a $200,000 student debt and have been working for the last 1.5 years FINALLY making a comfortable income,” he stammers. “ I bought a $500,000 house in Winnipeg last year (you don’t even want to know the reason why) on a fixed 2 year mortgage at 2.49%.  I bought a house even though I saw myself moving back to the GTA in 2-3 years.  After a year in the house, the plan is still to move back to the GTA in 2-3 years.  Currently I have about $100,000 in my medical corporation gaining a whopping 1.2%.”

I start the vacuum motor.

“Now from reading your blog it sounds like several obvious events are going to happen in 2013.  Housing prices will drop, interest rates will go up, and liquidity over the next 5 years is key.  I was reading about your advice to blend and extend my mortgage rate. Any other advice you could offer me?”

“Is that it?” I ask, asking him to bend and extend, the vibrations of the engine now throbbing through the room, as my shapely assistant, Miss Anna Sthesia, arrives.

“Oh yeah…I also recently invested $200,000 into a restaurant.”

I drop the mask, flick off the suction pump, holster the cup, drop the probe on the splattered tile floor and stare at a man sweating in his pathetic nakedness before me, his upturned face a study in terror and regret. He has bared all. Understood his own capacity for deviant thoughts and potlights. The healing has begun.

“Go,” I mutter, ripping at my scrubs.

“But, why?” he whispers.

“Because doctor, you’re already reamed.”

164 comments ↓

#1 KG on 12.19.12 at 10:15 pm

First

#2 Derek R on 12.19.12 at 10:15 pm

Yep, there’s smarts and there’s street smarts. Only a true genius has both.

#3 Canadian Watchdog on 12.19.12 at 10:21 pm

They said it couldn’t happen in the GTA, but it just did: Sold for 46% of list in Oakville

I hope that was an MLS error.

#4 Inglorious Investor on 12.19.12 at 10:23 pm

Very amusing post.

#5 Ralph Cramdown on 12.19.12 at 10:24 pm

Rae and Jerry’s steak house?

#6 Randy on 12.19.12 at 10:24 pm

DELETED

#7 Ralph Cramdown on 12.19.12 at 10:28 pm

#3 Canadian Watchdog

The original list price included a new build. For what they got, I think the new owner gets to keep the teardown.

#8 Smoking Man on 12.19.12 at 10:33 pm

So am to be impressed that Jim has Dr attached to his name.

A superior memorize regurgitation expert, but It don’t mean he’s a good analyst, problem solver.

My account says the clients most In trouble with CRA are Dr’s.

Tell me doctor Jim you ever put an 80 year old on Scopaimine?

#9 Deano on 12.19.12 at 10:37 pm

You know, back in my part-time bank teller days, I took mental notes of all of the different types of people/occupations and their overall financial situations (it was all there on my flickering, head-ache inducing screen for me to see). Doctors…most were disasters. True disasters. Some were fabulously rich though, which shows you what can be done with a large income and some smarts. Teachers were sometimes in debt up to their eyeballs, but many did surprisingly well with what they made. Again, decent income with a little smarts.

The worst? My bosses. Always terrible. Debt up the wazoo, borrowing from Peter to pay Paul on a weekly basis. I always thought they were the ones who were supposed to be smart. Not so much it turned out.

#10 Derek R on 12.19.12 at 10:38 pm

Looks like the good doctor’s only hope (and it’s a slim one) is LottoMax or Lotto649.

#11 The end is nigh on 12.19.12 at 10:39 pm

Too many doctors are specking and flipping.
That’s why I’m scared to go to a hospital.
Is he focussing on my hernia operation, or on his tenant
being behind with the rent.

#12 Djb on 12.19.12 at 10:41 pm

$200K into a restaurant, that was not an investment that was a future tax write off!

#13 Muddy Waters on 12.19.12 at 10:42 pm

“…General Motors is moving production of the Chevrolet Camaro from its Oshawa, Ont., plant to a Michigan facility…” – CTV News

This whole ‘strong Canadian housing market’ scam is currently the #1 exporter of Canadian jobs in this country. Expensive Canadian housing requires expensive Canadian wages, and manufacturers will continue to off-shore and out-source the Canadian middle class to countries whose citizens don’t need high wages to pay for half-million dollar bungalows.

Here in Canada, we’ve been brain-washed into worshiping record housing prices, when in reality, housing un-affordability has become the largest domestic job-exporting pyramid scheme ever to be unleashed upon Canadian society.

Ever wonder why our children’s future jobs are increasingly being outsourced to countries?

#14 brainsail on 12.19.12 at 10:44 pm

Finally some news in the US about Canada.

“Thieves Arrested After Stealing 6M Pounds of Maple Syrup”

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/abc-blogs/thieves-arrested-stealing-6-million-pounds-canadian-maple-002159173–abc-news-topstories.html

#15 not 1st on 12.19.12 at 10:47 pm

Isn’t investing $200,000 in a restaurant a better bet than a condo or something?

#16 cowpie on 12.19.12 at 10:51 pm

So true – when you see doctors buying up real estate as an investment, it’s a sign the boom is dead & over FOR SURE.

In posh acreages NW of Cowtown the MLS is now listing McMansions that haven’t even finished construction yet! “The handyman special: Sewer, power and gas are connected, but plumbing, HVAC and electrical, plus siding, insulation, interior finishes, landscaping still needed.”

Hmm – realtors selling their personal/investment properties + speckers dumping unfinished properties = Remember the last bust cycle from the 80’s anyone? However, no foreclosures yet, at least the areas I’m watching. Maybe it it’s different here…but something sure smells funny.

#17 george on 12.19.12 at 10:51 pm

Samaritans Ireland recorded its busiest year to date in 2012, with more than 400,000 calls to volunteers, many prompted by the recession.

The charity also said it had experienced more complex and detailed exchanges with people than ever before and a 17 per cent increase in the number of people attending its offices in person.

Calls are lasting 6 per cent longer on average, making up more than 57,400 hours of “listening time” and painting a deteriorating picture of a society in crisis. One in six of these calls is directly related to the economic collapse and its effects.

Busiest year for Samaritans as economic collapse takes toll

#18 Dr. WAYNE on 12.19.12 at 10:56 pm

#1 KG on 12.19.12 at 10:15 pm

First

========================

KG has hit the mother load!!! He actually IS the ‘first’ a$$hole to score the big life altering position. When he goes to this workplace tomorrow, you can bet this mentality will invariable be at the water cooler boasting of his spectacular rise AND position on Mr. Garth Turner’s internationally famous, and don’t forget, pathetic, blog.

#19 Dave the dentist on 12.19.12 at 10:57 pm

Hilarious post as always.

#20 25Alpha on 12.19.12 at 10:57 pm

Seriously Dr.Jimmy chum…you’re going to be staying in Winnipeg for a while.

Is the restaurant making money? As in good money? Otherwise sell it.

If i were in your shoes i would get that student debt down.

#21 Soylent Green is People on 12.19.12 at 10:58 pm

Omg what a classic re recently invested $200,000 into a restaurant lolololool

Reminds me of a movie re wallbsteetwhere they loved to call drs with fake stock tips

#22 DT76 on 12.19.12 at 10:58 pm

A surgeon around here owns a few McDonald’s. Now that’s genius!

#23 Smoking Man's Old Man on 12.19.12 at 11:00 pm

Now all he has to do is get married and he’s got the makings of a perfect storm.

#24 Smoking Man on 12.19.12 at 11:00 pm

Dr Jim if your reading tonight, what’s with the stethoscope, guess its kind of like a Rolex watch, status symbol.

You got one wrapped around your neck the muppets fall to your feet.

Do they really work, in the computer age, don’t you think it’s a bit primitive.

Kills me to watch sheep hanging on your every word like your a god. Idiots, me and you both know you have f~d up many times, and in the course of your career you probably my accidentally kill a few people, but will never admitted.

Anyway at leased the bearded one will help your bottom line.

Thank god and my moms life the we have google to keep on eye on you.

#25 Hurly on 12.19.12 at 11:04 pm

Sam and Ella’s Crab Shack?

#26 LuckyRenter on 12.19.12 at 11:19 pm

Even tighter mortgage rules may be needed: IMF

While the real estate industry has been blaming the changes for the recent slowdown in sales, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto when November sales fell 29 and 16 percent, respectively, the IMF says more may be needed, as the debt-to-income level continues to creep higher.

“However, should the household debt to income ratio continue to rise, additional measures may be needed,” the report warns. “Higher down payment requirements (tighter loan-to-value [LTV] limits for first buyers), lower caps on debt-service-to-income rations, and tighter LTV on refinancing are some of the possible options.”

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2012/12/19/Even-tighter-mortgage-rules-may-be-needed-IMF.aspx

#27 periwinkles on 12.19.12 at 11:20 pm

The elfin deity got no fall guy wonder what the exit strategy will be and if Harpo’s building distrust?

#28 City Slicker on 12.19.12 at 11:21 pm

“For example, it’s estimated that the price of a home in westside Vancouver is falling by $1,000 a day,…”

This sentence instantly brought back memories of Calgary in 2005-2007, or so, were prices were going up $500/day. Wonder if the downward momentum will be the same when this baby blows.

#29 LJ on 12.19.12 at 11:25 pm

Of course it is different in Alberta. We sell our oil to the US at $55/barrel when the Brent price is north of $110.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/energy-resources/Plunging+price+long+term+concern+Alberta/7719900/story.html

Then our provincial government complains that it can’t pay the bills:

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Cabinet+ministers+will+have+make+tough+choices+Alta+finance/7721925/story.html

The oil and gas companies will soon be laying off workers due to the “glut” of oil in the US.

That should provide a “glut” of foreclosures here in the wild west.

#30 Vamanos Pest on 12.19.12 at 11:43 pm

Typical Doctor, too easy to excel at the things they actually know how to do (and make great money doing), have to branch out and screw it all up in areas like real estate and small business.

Just write your prescriptions and cash your cheques dude. How hard is that?

Can you say hubris?

#31 brainsail on 12.19.12 at 11:50 pm

#30 LJ on 12.19.12 at 11:25 pm

Paid $2.84 per gallon for regular gas here in Central Texas a couple of days ago.

#32 Sockeyemoon on 12.19.12 at 11:54 pm

If it were $200k in a Tim Horton’s I reckon he’d have his money back in 12 months!

#33 squidly77 on 12.19.12 at 11:55 pm

Of course it is different in Alberta. We sell our oil to the US at $55/barrel when the Brent price is north of $110.

Nothing new there, always been that way, always will be that way.

Western Canada Select Oil has always had heinous shipping (piping) costs attached to it and contains less BTUs per barrel. It is not new news, just the governments latest lame excuse for blowing the budget.

I have a friend in the city of Cows thats trying unsuccessfully to sell his NW Calgary home that he paid $450,000 for in early 2008 before the markets blew. He originally was asking $528,800, then $499,000, then $474,900. No bites. Now delisted.

Better homes are asking for $400,000 or less. He might need Miss Anna Sthesia as he’s about to get a painful financial pasting come Spring when he re-lists.

#34 wes coast on 12.20.12 at 12:00 am

Colourful post.

#35 Blacksheep on 12.20.12 at 12:05 am

Nos Mad Vlad # 147,

Sure. Things changing fast. Thanks Old man.
take care
Blacksheep

#36 tkid on 12.20.12 at 12:06 am

Dude, have a bad experience with a proctologist lately? O.o

#37 Sydneysider on 12.20.12 at 12:07 am

Your information about Edmonton RE market does not credibly tally with others, such as:

http://www.ereb.com/News&Events/LatestMarketStatistics.html

http://edmontonrealestateblog.com/

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/Default.aspx

…Although I enjoy the blog, I’m starting to take your claims with a pinch of salt.

All stats from the Edmonton Real Estate Board. Go argue with them. — Garth

#38 Richard and Zeus on 12.20.12 at 12:22 am

#19 Dr Waynehole – Proctologist

The only thing pathetic about this blog is the fact that your posts are not DELETED

#39 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 12.20.12 at 12:24 am

Photo of Garth’s twin…..missing at birth?

Dr Wanker can rig DNA samples…simply send your request to Tijiuana c/o Smoking Gringo

#40 think again on 12.20.12 at 12:27 am

we’re surrounded with…

#41 Edmontonian on 12.20.12 at 12:42 am

I can see Calgary on your list of downturns in the New Year. The news is out now for us here in Alberta, billions of lost dollars last month in Oil Sales, selling oil over$33 LESS than list prices to keep sales from collapsing as US demand dries up. Construction, Calgary & Edmonton Oil Office Jobs dwindle, slaes and RE prices plunge. We say this in ALberta in 1971, 1977, 1981, and after the 1987 crash. Nothing new here, we’re not so different.

#42 Smoking Man on 12.20.12 at 12:55 am

My merry xmas post soon, you know where my shit blog is

#43 coastal on 12.20.12 at 1:01 am

“T-NB says prices have now dropped for four consecutive months in Victoria ”

Don’t tell that to the local agents Garth, the market is “solid” they say, “will flatline for years to come and did I tell you I’m over-educated for being an agent on a 3 month course ? ” One agent touting the Oakland’s area as the hot place to be, just yesterday had an old lady held up by a crackhead as he stuck a gun to her head at the local ATM. Yep, great place to raise the kids he says. Right.

#44 Dr. WAYNE on 12.20.12 at 1:03 am

#25 Smoking Man on 12.19.12 at 11:00 pm

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The pain Smoking Man engenders as one reads his massacre of the English language (and let’s not forget ‘spelling’) is sometimes more than any human should be subjected to. For heaven’s sake, take a English night course, then perhaps we may be able to decipher what you are actually trying to say.

#45 Burnt Norton on 12.20.12 at 1:03 am

Fast forward 30-40 yrs Jim. You don’t want to be one of those guys who can’t / won’t / don’t know how to stop going to the hospital. You know the ones – family won’t talk to them, no friends, forced into retirement by peers concerned for the public’s safety but keep showing up for grand rounds anyway where they routinely blurt out rambling non-sequiturs due to mild dementia.

Screwed. Reamed. Join the club, Jim. I got that T-shirt too. Replete with public anonymous shaming on this very blog. Painful but therapeutic. Kinda like a high Fleet.

A few tips that may prove helpful.

1) Identify and avoid colleagues that are likely to be living above their means. If you aren’t sure who they are (a) look for large watches, hood ornaments and shiny nametags with ‘Dr.’ before as well as ‘MD’ after the name that usually includes a middle initial or ‘Esq.’ and (b) listen for comments about stocks, legal fees, punks / street rabble and beach homes.

2) Think about what you anticipate earning in a year (gross into the corp). Now half it. Then deduct another 10-20%. Use that number when calculating what % should go to housing, food, vacation, etc in your cash flow budget.

3) Do not frig with CRA. Overpay and get a refund each spring. It helps to keep the monthly cash flow in check (for both you and spouse). This may be the only thing that I agree with Smoking Man on.

4) Keep membership in all of the various medical associations / colleges / journal subscriptions to the bare minimum that will allow licensed practice. The thousands of dollars in annual fees are almost never worth it. Stick to the annual licensing dues and provincial medical assoc / CMA dues if the benefits are worthwhile.

5) Assuming fee-for-service, price in the value of your time to look after yourself and your family, as in time spent on yourself and with your family. I’ve seen too many colleagues working long hours in earnest, thinking that they are doing what their family wants them to be doing ie. making $ but actually their family would prefer spending more time together. Life goes by in a flash, especially in the fee-for-service + humungous mortgage world.

6) Take frequent brief (one week or less) breaks instead of occasional long breaks. Makes it easier to get coverage, less work wrapping up before and catching up after. Less shock to the monthly accounts receivable ledger. Staycation, especially if kids 0-5 yrs, otherwise conference vacation and write off travel / hotel.

7) Above all, ditch MD Mgmt, find a smart, ethical fee-based advisor you can trust and have faith in him / her, just as you would have your patients entrust you.

Now, if could only figure out why I feel the need to sleep with my back against the wall tonight?

#46 Renting and loving it on 12.20.12 at 1:04 am

Garth, you probably don’t hear it enough, but thanks for your work here. I sold and am enjoying living “rent free” thanks to preferred dividends on the proceeds from the sale.

It’s interesting that I’m in Hawaii at the moment, seeing turnkey “condotel” units that are selling for under 200K, providing close to an 8% return (assuming you go all in with no financing) and keep thinking… meh. I’m already making close to 6% in Canada with my preferreds without having to deal with paperwork, State Taxes, the IRS and other headaches. I having a hard time getting excited about an extra 2% for what’s involved as a Canadian. Am I missing something?

It’s also interesting seeing units that you’d think would have been snapped up, sitting on the market for over 200 days in this market, because everyone knows, it’s different here in Hawaii. ;-)

#47 Austrian school on 12.20.12 at 1:35 am

One more shot?
Kyle Bass, give him a google and if you have an hour to spare have a listen to this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUc8-GUC1hY&feature=youtu.be

#48 confessions of a real estate bear on 12.20.12 at 1:38 am

The fish farm that i now own and am operating sucessfully was purchased in 2003 for 230000 dollars from a group of doctors that purchased it for an investment in 1989 for 575 000 dollars

#49 dosouth on 12.20.12 at 1:38 am

In all fairness to the poor Dr. Jim.

He belongs to the left brained population – “..means you have a certain thought process and favoring towards things like organization, logic, and the details. You are probably good in things like math, remembering people’s names or dates in history or birthdays and whatnot. Careers that left brained people tend to gravitate towards are doctors and engineers….”

That being said, not so good in social settings with others “than their own kind”. Poor in basic life skills like repairing anything at home. Cannot carry a conversation unless it is professional consultation or about themselves.

In other words, ripe for rip-off because they think with the wrong brain when it comes to life skills. Money, investing and budgeting is a life skill.

Did you know Dr.’s only get a day or two of training in over 7 years of education on how to invest and start/run a business.

There are a lot more Jim’s out there than will admit it, he is just the smart one, trying to understand his right brain.

Good luck Dr. Jim…..try some K-Y warming scent.

#50 confessions of a real estate bear on 12.20.12 at 1:40 am

Sorry I meant that it was purchased in 1993 for 230 000 dollars. I might be as drunk as smoking man

#51 the_hundredaire on 12.20.12 at 1:43 am

200,000? Is that what it costs nowadays to graduate from the last-place medical-doctoral university in Canada?
(University of Manitoba) Impressive.

#52 new canadian on 12.20.12 at 2:13 am

#14 Muddy Waters

So true, houses should be around $50K to $150K max for luxury ones. These braindead people may feel happy to see their homes appreciate in value but forget that their relatives and children will need to pay the price.
These wood and glue homes should not cost more than 50K to build anyways. Everything is inflated.
If average home would be $75K now and would stay there forever, what would you lose? You could buy, sell and relocate as you need and invest your money to real investment tools. This is spectators’ market.
Now houses are $400K and everybody is hoping for appreciation because no money left to invest somewhere else.

#53 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.20.12 at 2:14 am

-
“Are you ready to confess? Because doctor, you’re already screwed. I start the vacuum motor. (This is painful just reading it.) Go, I mutter.” — Liposuction at its very best!
*
Powder Keg of stock markets; James Dyson Failure is invaluable; Fiscal Stall Talks going nowhere; Fannie, Freddie and LIBOR; SS Cut The CPC may try to do the same thing here.
*
Loyalty See the head and pic; Licence Plates Only the Brits. could come up with these; Striking Art Not quite sure what to make of it; Purple Haze 1950 Ferrari; April Fools HKong built a new airport by reclaiming land, but I’m not sure if this would work; Artwork? This is your face in tape; Not healthy But that is their freedom of choice; Actually, this isn’t a bad idea (except when the temp. is around minus 35); Gun Control or Drug Control? Plus Jay Rockefeller; Coke – Pepsi Here’s the diff; Hormones are complex; Russia’s Military Hardware Best in the world? My Brain Hurts Circular chess board; Nacho Cheese Doritos and Dr. Phil’s sly psychological secrets.

#54 meslippery on 12.20.12 at 2:14 am

I dont know about any of you.
But I would say away from restaurants or more importantly bars.
33% of us smoke. I for one wont go there unless
kicking and sreaming.

#55 THE CELIAC HUSBAND on 12.20.12 at 2:15 am

My second investment in Canada arriving 20 years ago. A restaurant. Took 3 weeks before first cash call…another 8 weeks, all gone.

Only my first investment disappeared faster. A penny stock…..

#56 Bailing in BC on 12.20.12 at 2:21 am

200K in a resturant, classic dumb doctor deal.

I’m beinging to suspect that Dr. Wanker may ACTUALLY be a REAL doctor…

#57 robert on 12.20.12 at 2:23 am

Look out Alberta as it appears that oil prices are heading lower and the supply side of the equation from our neighbors to the south could change the entire landscape of the supply demand equation. If the oil business hits the skids so will Alta and in a hurry. We have seen this before and when the oil companies start to trim back with pink slips and projects mothballed the foreclosure rates soar. IMO Edmonton will be the first to feel this as it is a blue collared city that has seen its fair share of boom and bust. The more you look at the big picture Canada has its own economic problems and the budgets of every Canadian City are bleeding badly. Add a recession to this housing bust and it will get really ugly really quick. I fully expect that by this spring Garth will see a renewed interest in his books and will sell more than ever as the average home owner comes to realize that Garth is not the fool in fact that person they see in the mirror is truly the fool.

#58 Jim on 12.20.12 at 2:28 am

I don’t get why someone with 200k in debt just out of residency is making big money investment deals like this.

I’ve never thought much of the intelligence level of physicians (having worked with many, and having seen some of the dumbest people in my biology program go in that direction). However, this is not just stupid, but foolish.

#59 Bill Gable on 12.20.12 at 2:49 am

Where did the good Doctor get his degree?

My guess is in a box of Wheat Thins.

Dumb as a bag of hammers, this guy is already on the rocks and is sinking fast.

Great post, and really eye opening.
Wow!

#60 Oakvillian on 12.20.12 at 3:14 am

Oakville is in bad shape. No future for sellers. Kaput!

#61 smartalox on 12.20.12 at 3:54 am

“For example, it’s estimated that the price of a home in westside Vancouver is falling by $1,000 a day, and a swanky condo was recently listed at False Creek for 47% less than its provincially-appraised value.”

Once this becomes widespread knowledge, the decline will quickly pick up speed.

Sellers should bear this info in mind when pricing their homes for sale. Or when re-pricing them when they DON’T sell.

90 days on the market, and still no sale? Re-price accordingly. 180 days? Re-price accordingly. 365 days? You know what to do.

#62 Freedom First on 12.20.12 at 4:39 am

Yes, most unfortunately, education and job status have little bearing on a person having any degree of financial literacy. Often, the higher educated will have developed a “know it all egoism”……..meaning that because they are educated in proctology, or education, they are unaware that their thinking in other areas they know nothing about will cause them, as Garth elegantly stated, to get unexpectedly “reamed”.

I must admit, shamefully, seeing the high income financially illiterate getting “reamed”, does make me feel good. Other people, well, Joe average is usually just ignorant, or dense. Not quite as much ego involved. But still financially handicapped, and I don’t mean a lack of money. Their reaming is a little more painful to watch. In any case,it is an injustice to me as a taxpayer, to be held hostage to the RE horny mass lunacy.

#63 futureexpatriate on 12.20.12 at 5:19 am

The martians got to him first.

#64 sheik yahboudi on 12.20.12 at 5:42 am

Everyone should stop bashing Docs going into heavy debt…at least it will keep them working so we have only 6 hour hospital waits instead of 12.

Just sayin’

#65 Tony on 12.20.12 at 8:27 am

Re: #60 Oakvillian on 12.20.12 at 3:14 am

It’s amazing anyone would even live in Oakville. It’s too far from Toronto if you have a job in Toronto. I hear about how the wealthy live in Oakville yet when i visit that city i can honestly say i’ve never seen a city that shows more poverty in southern Ontario than Oakville. Oshawa is a distant second.

#66 Nukester99 on 12.20.12 at 8:49 am

Another RE wh0re pushing BS to the HGTV crowd. Amazing what people will print that is in their vested interest.

“That supply pressure, at the same time the GTA is seeing a “mini baby boom” among echo boomers, could push up new home prices an average 15 per cent a year, says Bryan Tuckey, president and CEO of BILD”

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1304769–new-home-sales-plummet-38-per-cent-as-prices-jump-over-last-november

#67 pbrasseur on 12.20.12 at 8:52 am

Very well written Garth!

Funny, pathetic but not so surprising actually.

I have a close acquaintance, an almost doctor, she’s clearly at risk of travelling the same path.

Doctors (specially young future doctors) are like most financially illiterate and soaked in the prevalent culture which says buy now and pay later. But credit is incredibly easy to get for them, and since they figure they will make big $$$ they don’t see the dangers of too much debt.

#68 pbrasseur on 12.20.12 at 8:55 am

#64 sheik yahboudi

Got a point there

Actually true for far more than doctors….

#69 Looking North at the U.S.A. on 12.20.12 at 9:01 am

But, it’s different here in the south…

http://blogs.windsorstar.com/2012/12/19/windsor-real-estate-market-heating-up/

Come south Boomers.

#70 Bigrider on 12.20.12 at 9:12 am

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1304769–new-home-sales-plummet-38-per-cent-as-prices-jump-over-last-november

“15% per year price appreciation for new homes” according to Bryan Tuckey, president and CEO of BILD.

Is this man insane and clairvoyent ? You decide

#71 sue on 12.20.12 at 9:14 am

My past relationship was with a doctor with 4 jobs-ER, family practice, industry MD, McMaster etc (over 400K/year). He was drowning in debt with the credit card companies calling several times a day. LOL Really.

One time he called and said “..take all of your personal belongings out of the Audi because the bailiff may come and pick it up….” Also, The CRA was threatening legal action. I’ve never felt so poor as I did when I was with him..now I’m a single mom and doing great. Go figure.

#72 Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 12.20.12 at 9:17 am

GTA new home sales fall 38%
http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1304769–new-home-sales-plummet-38-per-cent-as-prices-jump-over-last-november

alot of hungry for money out of work realtors on the brink of going bankrupt
It’s going to be a NASTY crash realtors…A NASTY CRASH!

#73 Jeff in Moose Jaw on 12.20.12 at 9:40 am

Hey Garth and fellow blog dogs,

I have a concern about the Orange Guys Shorts, and wonder if this could be true?
Back in 2004 (good times) I put some money away in a 5 year GIC and stuffed it in the Orange Guys Shorts. In 2009 the GIC matured at which point it rolled over for another 5 years. Well, I looked yesterday and the account name is RSP GIC.
Back in 2004 I doubt I would setup anything so exotic, I thought it was a standard 5 year GIC, in fact I’m sure that is what the setup was originally. Could it be back in 2009 they switched it to a RSP GIC and I never took notice until now? Has anyone ever had something like this happen to them with the Orange Guy?

#74 Linda Pearson on 12.20.12 at 9:40 am

#44Dr. WAYNE on 12.20.12 at 1:03 am

The pain Smoking Man engenders as one reads his massacre of the English language (and let’s not forget ‘spelling’) is sometimes more than any human should be subjected to. For heaven’s sake, take a English night course, then perhaps we may be able to decipher what you are actually trying to say.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Physician, heal thyself. The use of the indefinite article ‘a’ prior to a word beginning with a vowel almost always calls for the use of the article ‘an’, as in “an English language…”.

And since I’m already here – your incessant disparaging comments about the firsters is equally boring, annoying and predictable. Please, give it a rest already!

#75 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 12.20.12 at 10:06 am

@#44 Dr. Wayne

i believe that Smoking Man’s “schtick” is the drunken massacre of the english language……….

Quite amusing actually.

#76 IM in C on 12.20.12 at 10:21 am

Here’s a thought to Dr.Jim and everyone else..
Stick to the knitting!
Do you know anything about the resturant business? If you said yes- ie. you put yourself through school waiting tables, being a busboy, a sous chef, i’d say go for it. But what Dr. Jim is sucumbing to is puffed up vanity.

#77 █ ♣ █ ANONYMOUS on 12.20.12 at 10:28 am

Lets say in a small city there are 100 houses; 10 of them cost $1 Million one year earlier and 10 of them cost $100,000 one year earlier.

In the first month 4 of the $1 Million dollar houses sold, each one selling at $1 Million, for an average selling price of $1 Million for the month.

Then, the next month there were were only 1 of the Milllion dollar homes sold, and this time it sold for $1,200,000. At the same time, homes that sold for $100,000 one year earlier are now selling for $150,000 each. 3 of these homes sold for a selling frice of $150,000. So for all of these 4 houses, the average selling price is now 412,5000.

Now the fact is that GARTH would come along and say “hey everyone, the average selling price has crashed by more than 50%, people are burning in the street!”

But the truth is that the small homes have gone up by 50% in value in just a few months, and the large ones have gone up by 20%.

Well everyone, THAT is exactly what is happening in Toronto these days, prices are still heading up by DOUBLE DIGITS (not down, sorry about that), but its just that there are more smaller houses selling instead of larger ones, that’s all.

Have a nice day everyone.

#78 news junky on 12.20.12 at 10:35 am

The new $2.43 billion Port Mann Bridge can’t handle the first snow. Yesterday was the first major snowfall in Metro Vancouver since the new bridge opened up last week and big chunks of ice were falling from the cables, badly damaging two cars and injuring two people. The bridge had to be closed for hours during the afternoon rush hour. Please note this is a tolled bridge that replaces the old Port Mann, which was not tolled. Engineers say the old Port Mann (which never had issues with falling ice) has another 30 years of life left but it is going to be demolished anyways because the it is part of the agreement with the P3 operator of the new bridge. This is going to turn out to be an epic boondoggle for BC taxpayers. You see, other cable-suspension bridges in BC have cables over the sides of the nbrdige but this new bridge has cable running over lanes of traffic so when snow gathers on the cables, it falls right down onto the traffic below. Officials blamed “extreme weather” yesterday. But Metro Vancouver (esp. up-river parts like where this bridge is) can count on getting heavy wet snow every year. The weather wasn’t that extreme. We get days like that every winter here. The bridge should be able to handle wet snow. BC taxpayers just paid $2.43 billion plus $3 tolls and are paying to demolish a perfectly good bridge right next to it for a bridge that has to be shut down every time it snows. This was supposed to relieve traffic congestion, not create it. Epic Fail for the BC Liberals!!!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/12/20/bc-port-mann-ice.html

#79 down and out on 12.20.12 at 10:50 am

http://blogs.windsorstar.com/2012/12/19/windsor-real-estate-market-heating-up/

#80 Franke le Skank on 12.20.12 at 10:53 am

#19 Dr. WAYNE on 12.19.12 at 10:56 pm
I really enjoy your work.

#29 City Slicker on 12.19.12 at 11:21 pm
According to Brad in Cowtown, there’s a magical invisible dome over Calgary where the laws of the universe are different and do not apply. If the good doctor in today’s post was smart, he would take all his money and buy as many houses as he could in Calgary and maybe some Gold for maximum penetration, no lube required, just go limp.

#81 Bigrider on 12.20.12 at 11:09 am

I have to say to all the gold bugs on this blog, it sure looks like your goose is cooked.

I have a small position in both bullion and stocks(5% now down to about 4 due to decline) and not going to bother to reduce or add ,but I am not sure what more you all need to see to throw in the towel on your viewpoints, or what more of an environment you need to have to be vindicated.

I don’t have much of an opinion either way but wow, what a shallacking.

#82 Engineer on 12.20.12 at 11:18 am

When I was doing my MBA, I recall reading a Harvard Business Review article about the best and worst types of businesses to own. The worst business to own, by far, was a restaurant.

In fact, yearly losses are so common (especially when you factor in your “free” labour as an actual opportunity cost) that the author concluded restaurant entrepreneurs must derive some sort of utility from owning a restaurant. That was the only way the author could rationalize why so many people open restaurants even though they have such high failure rates.

#83 Chris Mewhort, EA on 12.20.12 at 11:23 am

#46 It’s interesting that I’m in Hawaii at the moment, seeing turnkey “condotel” units that are selling for under 200K, providing close to an 8% return (assuming you go all in with no financing) and keep thinking… meh. I’m already making close to 6% in Canada with my preferreds without having to deal with paperwork, State Taxes, the IRS and other headaches. I having a hard time getting excited about an extra 2% for what’s involved as a Canadian. Am I missing something?

Perhaps. I have many clients who “own” one of those properties. Their returns are normally a loss of 20-40 percent per year. Did the agent tell you that the management fee is 50% of gross?

Christopher Mewhort, EA

#84 20something on 12.20.12 at 11:23 am

#65 Tony, what are you smoking? Oakville is filled with mansions, new build executive homes and townhomes. The only area I’ve seen that’s “poorer” is along Kerr/Speers. The average price is over $700k.

#85 cramar on 12.20.12 at 11:24 am

#69 Looking North at the U.S.A. on 12.20.12 at 9:01 am

But, it’s different here in the south…

http://blogs.windsorstar.com/2012/12/19/windsor-real-estate-market-heating-up/
Come south Boomers.

———–

Beat me to posting this link! If ever the general populous catches on there could be a large exodus from other areas of Ontario to Windsor/Essex. The first wave of smart people have already made the move in the last year.

I like the statement:
“At an average home sale price of less than $171,000, you could buy 11 Windsor homes for what you’d have to shell out for a single four-bedroom Vancouver stand-alone ($1.88 million on average).”

#86 EIT on 12.20.12 at 11:33 am

Hey Garth, i’m sure this is just a typo:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/12/19_Diplomat_Admits_China_Is_Accumulating_Gold_To_Back_The_Yuan.html

Cheers

#87 Hoof - Hearted on 12.20.12 at 11:34 am

#44 Dr. WAYNE on 12.20.12 at 1:03 am

#25 Smoking Man on 12.19.12 at 11:00 pm

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The pain Smoking Man engenders as one reads his massacre of the English language (and let’s not forget ‘spelling’) is sometimes more than any human should be subjected to. For heaven’s sake, take a English night course, then perhaps we may be able to decipher what you are actually trying to say.

===============================

English Night School Class?

You have to speak Mandarin or Cantonese as a pre requisite to get in.

However, then you can hand out condo pre -sale flyers.

#88 arctodus on 12.20.12 at 11:41 am

# 71 My past relationship was with a doctor with 4 jobs-ER, family practice, industry MD, McMaster etc (over 400K/year). He was drowning in debt with the credit card companies calling several times a day. LOL Really.

One time he called and said “..take all of your personal belongings out of the Audi because the bailiff may come and pick it up….” Also, The CRA was threatening legal action. I’ve never felt so poor as I did when I was with him..now I’m a single mom and doing great. Go figure.

Especially since you can get the Canadian government to chase him down for child support eh sweetie?

Anytime I hear a single mom go on about how great they are doing I want to vomit….self entitlement to the maximum.

As the energy wall runs over us all, you females are about to fnd out just how hard life really is. When governments pull back from enforcement designed to impoverish men and enrich woman who do not have any staying power.

Single mom is (by and large) a synonym for gold digger.

#89 Rishu on 12.20.12 at 11:46 am

@66

“That supply pressure, at the same time the GTA is seeing a “mini baby boom” among echo boomers, could push up new home prices an average 15 per cent a year, says Bryan Tuckey, president and CEO of BILD”

Right… First it was HAM that was going to save the day; then immigrants… Now they are saying “mini baby boomers” will save the day?! You mean the same mini baby boomers living with parents till they are 30, with students debt in the tens of thousands, working at Starbucks even though they have a degree? Will mommy and daddy give them the money for the down payment? Oh right, they can’t since they have accumulated records debts as well… LoL. – Rishu, a mini baby boomer.

#90 Kilby on 12.20.12 at 11:48 am

#16 not 1st on 12.19.12 at 10:47 pm
Isn’t investing $200,000 in a restaurant a better bet than a condo or something?
——————————————————————-Restaurants used to have an 85% failure rate…Has a lot changed these days?

#91 Dr. Wayne's Psychiatrist on 12.20.12 at 11:53 am

#19 Dr. Wayne

Dr. Wayne has hit the mother load!!! He actually IS an ‘a$$hole whose pathetic life draws meaning in attacking first posters on this pathetic blog. When he goes to this workplace tomorrow, you can bet this mentality will invariable be at the water cooler boasting of his spectacular rise AND position on Mr. Garth Turner’s internationally famous, and don’t forget, pathetic, blog.

#92 John Prine on 12.20.12 at 11:57 am

It’s December 20th and there is typically not a lot of sales during the Christmas week so here are some comparatives in Vancouver for the last two December’s completed residential sales and so far this month. Vancouver East and Vancouver West.

December 2010 563 sales completed
December 2011 521 sales ”
December 2012 281 sales ( to the 20th)

I don’t think the most optimistic forecaster could find any joy in these numbers…………

#93 Aussie Roy on 12.20.12 at 12:02 pm

Aussie Update

Credit Suisse goes underweight on banks due to housing bubble

“Essentially, investors are subsidising losses on their property portfolios out of wages, in the hope of future capital gains. But their ability to keep doing this will be stretched if house prices do not rise, and if payment shocks hit.”

As they are already finding it hard to make money from residential property, it does not make sense for current investors to increase leverage and exposure to property. “Therefore, there is a distinct lack of momentum in the market to keep the bubble going.”

Credit Suisse believes house prices are between 20 to 40 per cent overvalued and as potential buyers are concerned with affordability and job losses, “demand is extremely low.”

http://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com/blog/2012/12/credit-suisse-goes-underweight-on-banks-due-to-housing-bubble/

#94 Franke le Skank on 12.20.12 at 12:07 pm

#76 █ ♣ █ ANONYMOUS on 12.20.12 at 10:28 am
Sounds a lot like condo math! You can list for 100 times what your house is worth, if no one buys it then what does it matter?

#95 blase on 12.20.12 at 12:15 pm

arctodus on 12.20.12 at 11:41 am
#

Especially since you can get the Canadian government to chase him down for child support eh sweetie?

Anytime I hear a single mom go on about how great they are doing I want to vomit….self entitlement to the maximum.

As the energy wall runs over us all, you females are about to fnd out just how hard life really is. When governments pull back from enforcement designed to impoverish men and enrich woman who do not have any staying power.

Single mom is (by and large) a synonym for gold digger.

ABSOLUTELY!

#96 Bottoms_Up on 12.20.12 at 12:22 pm

Checked out a rental bung awhile back in Ottawa — owned by a doctor as an investment property.

The place was scuzzy, needed doors, windows. Then, the basement — behind closed door #1, an extremely bad mould problem.

Followed the listing — instead of putting money into the house for improvements or fixing the mould problem (to prevent future health problems in the tenants) this doctor thought the best course of action would be to drop the asking price. A 25% decline since the summer and still no takers.

Being a doctor and slumlord is also not mutually exclusive!!!

#97 Bottoms_Up on 12.20.12 at 12:25 pm

#77 news junky on 12.20.12 at 10:35 am
—————————————
Snow doesn’t just fall off the cables, it accumulates into ‘ice bombs’ and severely damaged a couple cars.

The engineers that designed that bridge: FAIL.

#98 Bottoms_Up on 12.20.12 at 12:27 pm

#72 Jeff in Moose Jaw on 12.20.12 at 9:40 am
———————————————–
Doesn’t ‘RSP’ just mean it’s registered? Not a big deal — but that’s why you make no money on it.

#99 Doug in London on 12.20.12 at 12:28 pm

@dosouth, post #49:
You’re part right about left brained types, such as being not so good in social settings with others “than their own kind”. Otherwise you’re wrong about being bad at investing skills. To become a doctor, you need not only 4 years of medical school but also a pre medical education in sciences. This kind of bacground includes courses in statistics, where you understand that when something is unusually high (house prices, unusually warm weather) it’s not likely to stay that way. You also understand the scientific method which includes analytical, critical thinking. As for myself, I’m just a partly employed electrical tech (who would NEVER be smart enough to complete the education required to be a medical doctor) and I understand the common sense behind not buying an overpriced house (with a big mortgage) and being less mobile. I can pick up and go across the country (although Alberta appears less promising recently) in search of a job without having to worry about selling a house at below what I paid for it.

It’s also worth noting that I am a left brained electrical tech, and am quite proficient at fixing all kinds of electrical appliances, automotive repairs and maintenance, plumbing repairs, and other repairs. The skills that make you a good engineer, technologist, doctor, or other left brain science and technical fields are the same logical, analytical skills required for home or auto repair skills.

As Garth said, these doctors have more money than they know what to do with and that’s why they make investing mistakes; they can afford to. If they didn’t have so much money, they would use those analytical skills to make much smarter decisions about managing it.

#100 LazyJason on 12.20.12 at 12:55 pm

In my 18 years in the financial services industry, doctors, lawyers, politicians, teachers and especially bankers are notoriously bad at handling their financial situation.

Banking is a sales based industry so it shouldn’t be surprising that certain professions that have the perception of high(er than the average bear) earnings can easily have credit advanced to them.

But of course easy access to cash doesn’t make a person smart with how it is used.

#101 Dupcheck on 12.20.12 at 12:56 pm

The quicker the housing prices go down the faster the economy will recover. The jobs are flying away from our country, because the wages are too high and companies like GM can not or do not want to pay that much. If the good jobs go, how are we going to pay for these horrendous house prices? Minimum wages will not cut it, you can’t even pay for rent and food with a minimum wage. Something has to give somewhere. Garth has been right for so long, but no one up the hill was listening. Send them leaders a Christmas Card with your blog’s address on it.

#102 Mister Obvious on 12.20.12 at 12:57 pm

#54 meslippery

“But I would say away from restaurants or more importantly bars. 33% of us smoke. I for one wont go there unless kicking and sreaming.

——————————–

If I assume you’re correct and “33% of us smoke”. The implication seems to be that if smoking were allowed in bars again, those 33%, all of whom now stay away, would return.

A doubtful analysis. But if we accept it, it would also seem to follow the other 67% would disappear if smoking were reinstated.

The only way you can get people to spend time in a putrid atmosphere is to offer what they desire even more and can not get elsewhere. Bars and restaurants no longer apply.

Good examples are American casinos located on reservations. There, smoking is wide open. They are usually the only places one can gamble in the entire state. Lots of non-smoking folks are willing to choke on other people’s pollution for the privilege.

#103 Suede on 12.20.12 at 1:01 pm

Just saw the latest stats on “All immigrants want to move to BC”

hmmm, not good

“Immigrant Landing by Class” are lower Y/Y and much lower when compared to the last decade.

They must be going to Seattle

#104 hangfire on 12.20.12 at 1:04 pm

Now….if the Doc was a civil servant he could piss away all the money he makes on stupid decisions and decadence and never have to worry about a thing because no matter how stupid he’d been through his lifetime…he would have been able to spend 100% of his income…never save for retirement…..and get a fat greasy pension cheque when he retired early…with full benefits and inflation indexing of course.

Of course theres the added benefit that civil servants pay zero income taxes effectively….the tax they do pay while working is all given back to them plus plus when they collect the aforesaid fat greasy pensions…and they get to collect the said pension for decades longer than they would have worked….ipso facto……..no income tax….no need to save…..no risk…..just spend spend spend.

Meanwhile the liberal appointed judges on the supreme court continue to undermine Canadian democracy that will someday screw the goose who laid the golden egg. Will Sharia Law allow the libs to continue wallow in the trough? This decision is a real kick in the nutz from the libs for Christmas.

http://www.vancouversun.com/health/Photos+easy+ways+lose+weight+2013/7722410/story.html

#105 Had to Say it on 12.20.12 at 1:09 pm

#87arctodus on 12.20.12 at 11:41 am

I can see why your wife left you.

#106 hangfire on 12.20.12 at 1:13 pm

Public service unions get caught trying to rake off billions they didn’t deserve.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/12/19/public-service-unions-not-entitled-to-28-billion-pension-repayment-supreme-court/

Is there there no end to their unmitigated greed?

Next thing you know the libs will be running kangaroo courts called human rights tribunals against Merry Christmas on the busses….go figure.

#107 Brad in Cowtown on 12.20.12 at 1:17 pm

79 Franke le Skank on 12.20.12 at 10:53 am
#29 City Slicker on 12.19.12 at 11:21 pm
According to Brad in Cowtown, there’s a magical invisible dome over Calgary where the laws of the universe are different and do not apply. If the good doctor in today’s post was smart, he would take all his money and buy as many houses as he could in Calgary and maybe some Gold for maximum penetration, no lube required, just go limp.

I would like the link please to my alleged remarks about an “invisible dome over Calgary.”

What I actually said was… Calgary has the best fundamentals in the nation. And it does.
What I said was… go look at the numbers if you don’t believe me.
What I said was… it is misleading and borderline dishonest to claim a crash is underway in Calgary since there is ZERO evidence to support it.

That doesn’t mean I would buy here right now. But there is zero evidence to suggest Garth’s famous “melt” theory will affect Calgary in any meaningful way.

If you want to argue based on 2007 prices compared to today (a time period when the price of almost EVERYTHING, except gold, has gone down) be my guest. But it’s idiotic and only the blind can’t see through it. The smarter, and open minded, people understand that housing had doubled in price in the 3 year period prior to 2007. Of course that trend wasn’t sustainable.

#108 squidly77 on 12.20.12 at 1:34 pm

#106 Brad in Cowtown on 12.20.12 at 1:17 pm

If you want to argue based on 2007 prices compared to today (a time period when the price of almost EVERYTHING, except gold, has gone down)

Your mind has been smoked man, real estate throughout Canada went through an unprecedented price inflation spike between 2007 and mid 2012. Everywhere except Alberta of that is. 100 KM west of Calgary in the messed up and ethically challenged community of Canmore, price crashes nearing 60% have already happened.

As for the price of the utterly useless Yellow stuff that the bugs can not and will never sell. Just wait.

#109 CuriousGeorge on 12.20.12 at 1:35 pm

Please delete #4. I find his offense offensive.

#110 pjwlk on 12.20.12 at 2:37 pm

#60 Oakvillian: Not everyome cares about Toronto. I certainly don’t. I lived in Oakville for 15 years and it’s turned out to be one of my favourite places. You haven’t been around much if you think Oakville shows a lot of poverty.

#111 Jeff in Moose Jaw on 12.20.12 at 2:47 pm

#97 Bottoms_Up on 12.20.12 at 12:27 pm
Hey thank you for the reply.
Its subject to the government withdraw tax.
I’ll have to pay attention next time.

#112 Bottoms_Up on 12.20.12 at 2:53 pm

#105 hangfire on 12.20.12 at 1:13 pm
—————————————-
Sorry, you’ve got your facts wrong. Back then, pension contributions went into the government’s general revenues account. The government then took those pension contributions ($28 billion?) and used it to pay down the deficit.

The fight over that money is that that money belongs to those who contributed to their pension plans, and therefore should be being actively managed in order to meet future pension obligations.

It might be a moot point however, because if there are pension shortfalls the government is obligated to make up the difference!

#113 John Prine on 12.20.12 at 2:53 pm

#96 Bottoms_Up on 12.20.12 at 12:25 pm
#77 news junky on 12.20.12 at 10:35 am
—————————————
Snow doesn’t just fall off the cables, it accumulates into ‘ice bombs’ and severely damaged a couple cars.

The engineers that designed that bridge: FAIL.
—————————————————————–

ONE BILLION DOLLARS! Probably cost the province 75 million to run heating lines on all the support cables. Oh well, just put the tolls higher…..Middle class will pay.

#114 Franke le Skank on 12.20.12 at 2:54 pm

#106 Brad in Cowtown on 12.20.12 at 1:17 pm
Vancouver and Toronto RE agents have the old HAM excuse but its not saving those cities. Calgary has the oil excuse but it will not be saved either. When its all said and done and you’ve lost a portion of your equity you will be scratching your head wondering how a skank like me could see this coming and how you couldn’t.

#115 Bottoms_Up on 12.20.12 at 2:55 pm

#103 hangfire on 12.20.12 at 1:04 pm
——————————————
The way you think makes you an excellent candidate to be the next leader of the NRA.

#116 Bottoms_Up on 12.20.12 at 3:01 pm

#87 arctodus on 12.20.12 at 11:41 am
#94 blase on 12.20.12 at 12:15 pm
—————————————-
Garth where do you find these people?

Hey — get out of your parents basement, and go try and make a living for yourselves. If there are single moms out there that are ‘doing great’, well then that is a testament to their integrity, determination and self dependence. Your assumptions astound me.

#117 Brad in Cowtown on 12.20.12 at 3:07 pm

Your mind has been smoked man, real estate throughout Canada went through an unprecedented price inflation spike between 2007 and mid 2012. Everywhere except Alberta of that is.

Once, again, it’s like time didn’t exist for you people prior to 2007. Unbelievable.
Alberta prices nearly doubled from 05 to 07. No other province came close to that kind of spike in that period.
Of course, a resting period was in order.

Folks, … LOOK UP THE DATA FOR YOURSELF. You are being mislead.
Here’s a tidbit – Calgary SFD averaged price was 250k in November 2004.

Eight years ago. Almost a double in appreciation. That equates to a nice tidy 8% per annum.

Yeah, there’s been a real housing crisis on Calgary.
Who’s smokin what?

#118 Shiner on 12.20.12 at 3:08 pm

Greatest. Blog. Ever. (While somewhat disturbing)

#119 Franke le Skank on 12.20.12 at 3:19 pm

#106 Brad in Cowtown on 12.20.12 at 1:17 pm
You talk about fundamentals but I’ve never seen you post a number on this site to back up this claim? You remind me of a realtor. This is what I like about Garth, he provides statistical analysis and that can be verified by anyone with an internet connection.

#120 Bottoms_Up on 12.20.12 at 3:35 pm

ps. Garth, greatest short story ever told.

#121 Aleksey on 12.20.12 at 3:38 pm

You should write a book!
Oh, wait, you already did…

#122 EIT on 12.20.12 at 3:47 pm

For all the gold-haters. Central Banksters are doing the penetrating.

PS why can’t I say that thing about silver and JPMorgan

PMs are cooked for a while. I hope you took your profits. — Garth

#123 Franke le Skank on 12.20.12 at 4:00 pm

116 Brad in Cowtown on 12.20.12 at 3:07 pm
I think I’m missing something because I don’t understand your argument. Are you saying that price in Calgary doubled between 2005 and 2007 and that prices have been flat since then and this is why you think prices in calgary will not be affect?

#124 mel in victoria on 12.20.12 at 4:01 pm

“EIT on 12.20.12 at 3:47 pm For all the gold-haters. Central Banksters are doing the penetrating.

PS why can’t I say that thing about silver and JPMorgan

PMs are cooked for a while. I hope you took your profits. — Garth”

The current despair by PM bulls and elation by bears reminds me of previous bottoms…Time will tell….

Nothing to do with bulls or bears. It’s simple rebalancing. — Garth

#125 sue on 12.20.12 at 4:09 pm

#88 Arctodus

I did NOT have children with this LOSER!!! I had a son from my marriage. I was entitled to some sort of support bc I was common law with him but I turned it down and RAN FOR THE HILLS.

BTW, I do NOT get any child support from my son’s father because he’s broke and a financial advisor…lol REALLY. I choose to have a positive realtionship with him for the sake of my son because it’s ONLY MONEY.
I do much better on my OWN.

Wow. Quick to judge much???

#126 Tkid on 12.20.12 at 4:13 pm

Doc, you’re a year and a half out of residency and you’re a hundred grand short of being a million dollars in debt?
 
Oy vey
 
Doc, get thee a budget.  Stick to the budget.  Every dollar extra that you make over and above the budget gets split four ways:
 
1. 25 cents goes to pay extra off the mortgage.
 
2. 25 cents goes to pay extra off the student debt.
 
3. 25 cents goes to pay down the monies invested in the restaurant.  My suspicions say you obtained this via a loan.  If not a loan, then start up a jar labelled ‘Restaurant.’
 
4. 25 cents goes into a jar labelled ‘Emergency Fund DO NOT TOUCH Unless It Is An Emergency’.  Once you have 6 months worth of bills saved up, put the 25 cents into a jar labelled ‘Give to Garth to Invest for Me.’
 
When you have 1, 2, or 3 paid off, that 25 cents goes to #4.  When you have 1, 2, AND 3 paid off, the last 25 cents goes into a jar labelled ‘Spend any damn way I want.’
 
The jar labelled ‘Spend any damn way I want’ is your ultimate goal.  Out of that jar will come the next Mercedes or BMW or Harley, the sailboat, the private aircraft, the second house in the Carribean, the new shoes from London and threads from Paris, etc yadda etc. 
 
Just, no more getting into debt.  From here on out the motto is Getting Out Of Debt.  Latinize it to make it sexy, then frame it and hang it on the wall.

#127 Devore on 12.20.12 at 4:19 pm

#77 news junky

Officials blamed “extreme weather” yesterday.

Winter weather in winter! Who could possibly have predicted and planned for this?

Speaking of seasonal winter weather in winter, I haven’t heard of anyone in the US blame winter weather in winter for poor economic performance for at least one full year now, even Sandy is only getting a side mention. Things must be getting better.

#128 Julia on 12.20.12 at 4:25 pm

Anyone of you out there in blog land a pension expert… any of you that aren’t anti pension that is?

My friend got a new job that has a different pension company and has to decide whether to keep the old one or roll it into the new one. He has 15 years in the old one and potentially could have another 15 years until retirement.

The old one has better retirement health benefits but the new one is what the best 5 years salary will be based on.

Any advice would be appreciated.

#129 Old Man on 12.20.12 at 4:32 pm

#25 Smoking Man – I have a Rolex and put it into the drawer, and went to Sears to spend $65.00 on a good looking watch to give me performance. There are few that can even fix a Rolex, and it was $200.00 a shot and the asset cost was mounting for this and that over time; not the best investment in my life, so gave up on the status symbol thing years ago.

#130 Asse on 12.20.12 at 4:37 pm

I’ve admired the few single mums I’ve met. They usually have interesting stories about ex’s. Also know a few of the ex’s, funny how the stories are different.
There’s a curious guy on this Site who messed around, got caught, kicked out, went bankrupt, family won’t talk to him, has no money-its the year of living frugally-but still posts advice..Buy.
The Doc will be fine, and more cautious. Better at the beginning of his career.

Merry Christmas Doomers!

#131 Beach Girl on 12.20.12 at 5:02 pm

Really happy today. Shouldn’t be. But I am. Might have connected 2 lonely people together. Dice night tonight. I have my Griswald Tree with the Hedgehog in it. We call him Ron Jeremy. I have a ham, turkey, prime rib, chickens, Xmas cake, oranges, nuts. All is good. I hardly eat anyway. Could care less, I am not cooking any of this shit. Someone will. Just going to be pampered this Holiday.

Love the Beach Girl.

Happy holidays to all the Gurus’ followers.

Oh, I have a new flame.

#132 Beach Girl on 12.20.12 at 5:05 pm

Xmas is always good with a NEW man in town. LOL. Plastic surgery in January, will look great, can’t wait. Perked out, drunk and healing. Awesome. Bring on 2013.

#133 Old Man on 12.20.12 at 5:07 pm

Now for the gold bugs just hang in there, as is just down a modest $82.90 over the past 30 days or 4.79%, and with the interest lost with a preferred share with a tax credit for a total net loss on return of capital of about 9.79%, but better days are head – yes or no?

#134 Ice Fisherman on 12.20.12 at 5:24 pm

#14 Muddy Waters on 12.19.12 at 10:42 pm

And then don’t forget high real estate price also raise the cost of living for our friendly sivil servant. So to cover their costs they gonna raise the fees they charge you next time you come into their office. Expect all kinds of fees to increase in the future. Fortunately, their jobs can not be outsourced.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/cost-of-canadian-passports-to-rise-significantly-next-year/article6601606/

#135 futurologist on 12.20.12 at 5:26 pm

#78 news junky on 12.20.12 at 10:35 am
You see, other cable-suspension bridges in BC have cables over the sides of the nbrdige but this new bridge has cable running over lanes of traffic so when snow gathers on the cables, it falls right down onto the traffic below. Officials blamed “extreme weather” yesterday. But Metro Vancouver (esp. up-river parts like where this bridge is) can count on getting heavy wet snow every year. The weather wasn’t that extreme. We get days like that every winter here.

———————–

in former USSR communist government always blamed weather for all problems.

It was soviet joke:
There are 4 reasons to blame for total agricultural disaster: summer, fall, winter and spring.

Welcome to Soviet Canadastan!

#136 Westernman on 12.20.12 at 5:32 pm

Beach Girl @ # 133,
Great of you to check in with the continuing details of your sordid, disgusting, vile life…
My deepest condolences to your new flame – poor sap…

#137 Sebee on 12.20.12 at 5:46 pm

What do you know, that $1.1M listing near Humber Sewage Plant central got taken down after we had some fun with it yesterday. But don’t fear, it’s still for sale.

The power of this blog is amazing.

#138 Canadian Watchdog on 12.20.12 at 5:49 pm

#135 Old Man

This was a forced sell-off from Morgan Stanley liquidating John Paulson’s GLD positions, so nobody could have seen this coming. This is an opportunity to start accumulating as central banks and wealth funds buy in with reflation ahead.

Same rule as always. Buy in when others are in fear.

#139 Asse on 12.20.12 at 5:52 pm

Beach Girl, happy for you. It’s always good to get a lift.
Hope everythings working out okay with your family, nice to have munchkins around.
Here’s hoping you be kind to the hedgehog, that Ron Jeremy’s nasty shit!
Merry Christmas to all!

#140 EIT on 12.20.12 at 5:58 pm

Mental exercise for everyone!

Think of the world and how it functions.

Doesn’t make much sense does it.

Now change one assumption to the following:

Corruption is very common.
(but don’t go argentina on me)

When in doubt… people… bribe.

And now…

The world makes more sense.

Your welcome.

EAST
http://www.silverdoctors.com/solid-gold-business-cards-are-the-new-currency-among-chinese-businessmen/
WEST
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/tag/quebec-construction-corruption

…maybe if quebec mayors used gold business cards… no no … I move ahead of myself

#141 Old Man on 12.20.12 at 6:08 pm

I am one who observes the state of the economy, and today in most shopping centers could not find a parking space, but what are they all doing? Now had to do lots of banking with one and a counter check deposit to another; got lucky as made a large deposit, and the teller will process it with no questions.

I need three computer products, but with many stores online they are all sold out at retail price -why? This is total complete chaos of not managing inventory that will sell. Now see a few retail establishments holding one or three day sales for 25% off on everything for a purchase of $60.00 or more, so say they are in a bit of trouble to blow off inventory for cash.

#142 Smoking Man on 12.20.12 at 6:16 pm

#138 Westernman

I hope that was a failed attempt at sarcasm, if not.

Your a bigger hick than I could ever imagine.

Don’t you have some chickens to feed.

#143 jess on 12.20.12 at 6:26 pm

137 Derek R
…perhaps being an octopus with eight brains would be better
;^> i sure could use all the arms.

143 EIT
in the book, “Bull by the horns,” FDIC Sheila
…”in other words OCC didn’t need to do it’s job as a regulator since taxpayers were bailing it out.”

#144 Herb on 12.20.12 at 6:28 pm

#131 Old Man,

the real McCoy with a real Rolex would know what it costs to fix it. Your $200 hasn’t cleaned much less fixed a Rolex since the early ’70s.

#145 Doug in London on 12.20.12 at 6:33 pm

@Dupcheck, post #101;
I couldn’t agree more. I wonder if anybody actually noticed we have to compete in a GLOBAL marketplace where your cost of doing business actually matters. It’s long, long overdue that housing costs came back to being at least in sight of reality in most places in Canada. That’s why GM is transferring jobs from Oshawa to somewhere in Michigan, and Caterpillar Diesel left London for Muncie, Indiana. When Canadian house prices come back to reality, these losses of good jobs will stop or even reverse if our cost of business becomes cheap enough.

#146 Westernman on 12.20.12 at 6:44 pm

Smoking Man @ # 145,
No, that wasn’t sarcasm – that was calling it like it is.
Goblins don’t get a pass from me due to their gender.
Now…why don’t you crawl back into your bottle of booze and quit trying to play white knight?

#147 HD on 12.20.12 at 6:50 pm

#145 Smoking Man on 12.20.12 at 6:16 pm

#138 Westernman
I hope that was a failed attempt at sarcasm, if not.
Your a bigger hick than I could ever imagine.
Don’t you have some chickens to feed.

——————————————————————-

When Smoking Man actually sounds serious in calling you a d*ick, you know you have reached a very low point by any standards.

Beach Girl,

Keep on posting. It’s good to have you here. You are a great addition to this blog in my humble opinion.

Best,

HD

#148 Form Man on 12.20.12 at 6:57 pm

#145 Smoking Man

Westernman is sad little hater whose immature anger prevents him from having any luck with the ladies.

He sees himself as a victim, and lashes out at anyone displaying any sort of happiness. Since his intellect is rather limited, we treat him with pity……..

#149 Westernman on 12.20.12 at 7:04 pm

HD @ # 150
I always consider the source when analyzing critics, in this case the critic is a drunk with a ten year old’s grasp of the English language – case closed – the defense rests…

#150 Beach Girl on 12.20.12 at 7:13 pm

I have no munchkins around, nor do I want any. And that asshole who said single moms were gold diggers, wholly smokes, bet his mom is hiding her face. Bringing up an unpleasant bastard like that.

Of course, angry unbalanced young people are going to lash out. Sometimes there is no amount of help that will help. It is what it is.

#151 EIT on 12.20.12 at 7:15 pm

Seriously! Don’t worry Garth, the short position is an open secret.

#152 Sydneysider on 12.20.12 at 8:03 pm

“All stats from the Edmonton Real Estate Board. Go argue with them. — Garth”

EREB stats do not claim that house prices are falling – quite the contrary… now where did I put that salt?

I said sales and dollar value had dropped 21 per cent – exactly what the stats show. — Garth

#153 Old Man on 12.20.12 at 8:25 pm

#147 Herb – you are missing my point, as do not want a watch or a woman in my life that becomes a high maintenance scenerio. Most of my first dates take to Tims for a donut and a coffee, but not too many will accept, and have no idea why, as they call me just a cheap sob, and it hurts.

#154 jess on 12.20.12 at 8:28 pm

The old adage of love’ em or leave ‘em has been amended to –love to leave ‘em

medical one way tourism

A wife who took her handicapped husband on a ‘holiday of a lifetime’ to India then dumped him there to save on care costs has been jailed for four years in Switzerland

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2251043/Wealthy-banker-takes-disabled-elderly-husband-holiday-lifetime-India–leaves-fed-paying-care-bills.html#ixzz2FdqKDL6j

Serious Wrongdoing Too Often Gets Treated as a Cost of Business and Deducted from Future Taxes

http://www.uspirg.org/news/usp/bp-settlement-government-may-follow-pattern-allowing-companies-write-costs-wrongdoing

From COMPANIES 6:44am
Hong Kong probes UBS over Hibor
Investigation into interbank lending rates broadens

===========
hawkeye and jive
The IRS has indicted three Swiss bankers accused of conspiring with clients in the US to hide more than $420m in offshore accounts, according to the US attorney’s office.
========================
…undeclared accounts using code names or in the name of sham corporate entities; ensured that mail relating to those accounts was not sent to U.S.-taxpayer clients in the United States; and caused U.S. taxpayer-clients to travel to Switzerland to conduct business relating to the United States,” the indictment states

http://www.justice.gov/usao/nys/pressreleases/December12/FellmanetalArrestPR.php?print=1

#155 Daisy Mae on 12.20.12 at 8:39 pm

#125sue on 12.20.12 at 4:09 pm
#88 Arctodus

“I did NOT have children with this LOSER!!! I had a son from my marriage. I was entitled to some sort of support bc I was common law with him but I turned it down and RAN FOR THE HILLS.

BTW, I do NOT get any child support from my son’s father because he’s broke and a financial advisor…lol REALLY. I choose to have a positive realtionship with him for the sake of my son because it’s ONLY MONEY.
I do much better on my OWN.”

Wow. Quick to judge much???

*********

Yes. That was a wicked attack by Arctodus. Women generally do just fine, thank you. They do what they must do. They have determination. Women are strong. And they succeed. Do not underestimate them.

#156 Herb on 12.20.12 at 9:46 pm

#156 Old Man,

if your #131 had said what your are saying at #156, you would not have heard a word from me. You are entitled to your opinion and approach to bling and babes, but when you tell a tall tale about a Rolex, you risk challenge from someone who might have some facts.

#157 *NAKED APE* on 12.20.12 at 10:31 pm

Dr. Jim???

Can it be one and the same? The Dr. Jim in Winnipeg I know got reamed by the Church of Scientology. Can there be a correlation that all DR. Jim’s in MB are not very smart when it comes to handling their $$$ ?

#158 Marshy on 12.20.12 at 11:07 pm

Westernman @ 152

In other words, kind of like you.

#159 detalumis on 12.21.12 at 5:56 am

#3 the 46 percent lower house is a house that was not built yet the original list price was for a new build home, the seller bought the teardown (land value) to construct the home themselves.

#160 arctodus on 12.21.12 at 11:16 am

Yes. That was a wicked attack by Arctodus. Women generally do just fine, thank you. They do what they must do. They have determination. Women are strong. And they succeed. Do not underestimate them.

I agree…… they will spread their legs when an opportunity presents itself and then use government officials to support their self entitlement.

The sad part is their children are permanently damaged in the process.

Strong women will vanish into the abyss of the energy implosion already underway. They will simply then spread their legs and hope the father will stay. No big brother to help poor little self important X chromosomes.

#161 live within your means on 12.21.12 at 1:55 pm

Loved those vids of dogs. Hubby used to put a ‘Get Crackin’ hat, sunglasses, etc. on our darling black lab/shepherd mix & visit the neighbours on H’ween. She was so unbelievably obedient, especially when we spoke to her in French. My youngest bro knew I was looking for a tiny puppy as a Xmas gift for my hubby. Bro had a black Lab & found our Echo for us. Hubby & I grew up with dogs & various other types of pets – especially me.

#162 dosouth on 12.21.12 at 2:03 pm

C’mon some of you and you know who you are.

Cut the name calling and bashing. This is not for your personal problems with each other rather an upscale, upbeat pathetic blog (Garth’s word) on investing and real estate.

If you have to dump on each other try a washroom stall.

#163 sue on 12.21.12 at 3:28 pm

#164 Arctodus

You are one weird dude with perhaps, an issue or 2 wrt XX chromosomes..lol
I’m now going to vanish into the abyss…. Energy implosion is highly underrated.
Cheers

#164 arctodus on 12.22.12 at 7:42 am

#167

vanish away sweetheart…gold brickers do best when good folks cannot identify them for what they are.

perhaps you noticed that any vitirol I received for my comments was from other gold brickers who hated to be “affronted” by the truth…because even gold bricking females know deep down there where the soul resides….that they are nothing but parasites and the flotsam of a society in rapid collapse.

so yes sweetie do scurry away….and I do hope your ex manages to keep your home address…so that he can come calling sometime…..after the jack booted thugs of government agencies have lost their jobs….and the remaining police forces have more important things to do than enforce your own selfish agenda.