The fallout

Allan called me from Calgary this afternoon, as I hurtled past the hookers and the homeless in downtown Toronto, with woman troubles. And condo worries. “I’ve had my place on the market for two months now,” he says, “and just one lousy showing. I priced it aggressively, too, twenty thou below the latest recent sale.”

Below what he paid three years ago, too. If he sells at his asking price, he’ll be down at least fifty thousand, but in reality the loss will be far steeper. “People in this city are smoking it, telling each other the market’s going up,” he says. “They think oil makes it different, but that’s simply a lie. I know.”

And he does. Oil patch engineer. Convinced that fracking Stateside and pipeline politics mean Calgary’s best days are behind it, at least until oil prices increase by half. “And that’s not gonna happen for a long, long time – not with the kind of debt everybody’s got now.”

The average property price in Calgary (up 8% in a year) is just under $440,000. In the GTA, with almost six times the population and a bigger more diversified economy, it’s a mere 10% higher. As Allan reminds us, the market in Canada’s fourth-largest and most arrogant city, is starting to crumble from the bottom. Most condo buyers in 2010 and 2011 who jumped in with 5% down are under water already. First-timers there are being whacked as hard as those in Vancouver or Toronto by F’s big mortgage changes and tighter bank regs.

Even the local realtors, in trumpeting a sales gain while Toronto, Vancouver, Edmonton and Montreal tank, are covering their butts: “While the Calgary area market has been improving, it is not on the cusp of a dramatic rise or fall. Slower growth trends in the employment market along with changes in lending policy and near-term challenges in the oil sector will likely dampen demand, preventing a boom. The decline in new listings will compensate for any adjustment in demand, helping maintain price stability in the market.”

Of course, this is unlikely to happen. In a few months Calgary will be traveling the same road as every other major market, as a housing correction unfolds that is obvious even from the other side of an ocean. In discussing the upcoming move of Mark Carney from head of the Bank of Canada to boss at the Bank of England, a leading UK money mag had this to say: “Forget about the idea that Carney is coming over here to save us. Quite the contrary. He’s escaping from Canada just in time.”

Did you catch the latest debt numbers this week? Yowsa. We’re now up to 164.6% of disposable income, a record (and more than the Brits or Americans). In the last three-month period we added debt at twice the rate that disposable income increased, which seriously sucks. This piggy attitude towards borrowed money poses the biggest threat extant to the Canadian economy, precisely why the feds are trying to extinguish the real estate market. But the effort comes too late. House prices will fall, for sure. But the debt will remain.

It’s becoming more clear who to blame. Carney for four solid years of emergency interest rates, for sure. You can’t dangle 2.99% mortgages under everyone’s noses without a giant increase in borrowing and a bloating of home prices to match.

But that little pecker F – the elfin deity now claiming credit for a rapidly freezing housing market – is also being fingered as a reason young couples in Vancouver have to leave town to afford property. The 2006 budget that ushered in zero down payments and 40-year mortgages, say the analysts at Pacifica Partners, as a defining moment. “This one decision may be remembered in Canadian economic history books as an extremely grievous policy error.

“Prior to the 2006 loosening of government insured mortgages; the Canadian real estate sector had already experienced a half decade of surging prices.  Thus the policy change of 2006 was counter to basic Keynesian economics which advocates the use of fiscal and monetary policy for smoothing of business cycles. This is achieved by stimulating slow growth environments and enacting policies to cool excessively high growth economic environments.  The 2006 policy change, however, served a contrary goal of stimulating an already surging market.  What followed was a 26% increase in outstanding mortgage credit between mid 2006 and mid 2008.  Meanwhile, Canadian nominal GDP grew by half as much, only 13% and weekly Canadian Wages grew at slightly more than one-quarter at only 7%.”

Of course, the omnipotent F rescinded the 40-bagger in stages, starting in the autumn of 2008, finally climbing back down to 25-year mortgages in the summer of 2012. Zero-down is also gone. So are down payments gifted by the banks. And mortgage coverage for million-dollar homes. And liar loans. But all, too late.

Allan drank the Kool-Aid in Calgary. Now he sips regret.

And he still has woman troubles. “I’m selling because she wants a house,” he moans. “What can I do?”

Put her on the line, I barked.

To be continued…

194 comments ↓

#1 Mike on 12.13.12 at 10:09 pm

First

#2 Derek R on 12.13.12 at 10:10 pm

As I said yesterday. Infrastructure projects in Calgary have had an upward effect on SFH prices. But that was last year…

#3 bill on 12.13.12 at 10:16 pm

I can hardly wait for the next episode…
allan is getting off light if he manages to sell and only realize a 50 g loss. I have some friends in delta who have taken almost triple that … and no sale in sight .
man this is depressing .too many friends and acquaintances are getting it in the neck ’round here.

#4 Terry on 12.13.12 at 10:16 pm

Hey! i’m first for once!

#5 Nodebt on 12.13.12 at 10:18 pm

Firsssst again hopefully!!!

#6 a prairie dawg on 12.13.12 at 10:20 pm

Poor Allan.

#7 GeoKall on 12.13.12 at 10:23 pm

Is it true that homeowners renewing their mortgages will have to go through the new criteria to re-qualify
or will they automatically get the mortgage.

#8 Gregor Samsa on 12.13.12 at 10:23 pm

Calgary still has one thing in it’s corner: probably the best job growth of all the major cities in Canada, plus a higher propensity for ‘drinking the cool-aid’ than anywhere else in Canada. If housing in Canada start to tumble elsewhere in Canada, Calgarians simply won’t believe it. Either way, look for Calgary to be the last stand of Canada’s housing bubble.

#9 Weener on 12.13.12 at 10:23 pm

Ooh, a cliffhanger ending. Love it.

#10 Not 1st on 12.13.12 at 10:29 pm

Standing by to vultch on cowtown. Let us know when Garth.

#11 NFN_NLN on 12.13.12 at 10:39 pm

About time..

Mutual fund fees to face regulator’s scrutiny

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/12/13/mutual-fund-trailer-fees.html

#12 Old Man on 12.13.12 at 10:39 pm

The Province of Alberta is going to be toasted, and all will be eating cake in 2013.

#13 brainsail on 12.13.12 at 10:41 pm

The responses from the people that live in Planet Alberta are going to be very entertaining!

#14 T.O. Bubble Boy on 12.13.12 at 10:47 pm

Garth’s bunker on the market?

http://www.torontolife.com/daily/informer/gimme-shelter/2012/12/12/house-of-the-week-18696-the-gore-road/?utm_source%3Drss%26utm_medium%3Drss%26utm_campaign%3Dhouse-of-the-week-18696-the-gore-road

#15 mel in victoria on 12.13.12 at 10:48 pm

Garth…….

I know I’m off topic but was away all day volunteering at a Christmas Charity and noticed yesterday’s blog touched on the precious metals…

This chart below gives an indication over many years where things have been with the price of gold and it doesn’t matter whether you’re a metal head, pm investor, reckless speculator, mutual fund advisor, Geo Soros, Bullion bank, India, China…. or just an ordinary dude wondering what the heck is going on with the precious metals, specifically gold….the chart speaks the facts…Gold , and silver continue to go up in price..

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=M&yr=13&mn=6&dy=0&id=p47370641986

Gold has been in an uninterrupted incline for 11 years . Will it stop going up ? Of course but do we know why or when? I don’t…do you? Does anyone? Doubt it…A lot of theories and explanations out there and I’m thoughly familiar with all of them.

I’ve been on the golden ( and silver) train a long time, made some huge coin, but when that red line is broken, I’ll lighten up a bit….not totally, just a bit…see what happens the next while and if a collapse appears inevitable,likely sell more . But never all!!

Look ,I think I mentioned this before, I’d never encourage anyone to put more than 5-10 % of their investible assets into the PMs…..I take more risk (which I can afford) than others but I’ve been doing this for 40 years so seen a lot and hopefully learned a lot..And certainly paid my dues..One thing I’ve learned is nothing is certain when it comes to speculating.. It’s just as easy to lose your shirt as it is to make a few bucks!!

Have a wonderful Christmas all of you and in particular our esteemed, loveable and patient host!

Garth…I know how frugal you are but know this dentist here in town (Oak Bay) who’ll replace your old amalgum fillings with gold crowns…..cheap.. He’s still upset about losing his licence … but hasn’t had a drink for 3 days and for the most part got the shakes under control….but give me a call……we can work something out I’m sure…Take care buddy..have a good one!!

#16 city slicker on 12.13.12 at 10:53 pm

Garth if the RE mkt was already hot pre 2006 why would the feds throw in the 40 bagger if the financial crisis would not hit till 2008?

Ask mr. Harper. I tried. — Garth

#17 Canadian Watchdog on 12.13.12 at 10:55 pm

#7 Gregor Samsa

Calgary still has one thing in it’s corner: probably the best job growth of all the major cities in Canada

Not true. Calgary has the worst job recovery since the GFC. This can be seen by looking at the employment-to-population ratio. In a nutshell, they flooded the city with immigrants (and gave them mortgages) to boost headline employment numbers, but as a percentage of working population, there are less workers today then post 2008.

No recovery. Just illusions.

#18 X on 12.13.12 at 10:57 pm

C did the same as Greenspan, rates too low for too long.

#19 Hoof-Hearted on 12.13.12 at 10:57 pm

Well ….one of those kids gives a sh*t….

#20 Maverick on 12.13.12 at 11:01 pm

Canadian debt-to-income ratio 164 % = Home foreclosure tsunami like the us market and possible
worst . Canada will face huge chmc bail outs like the
us style fannie mae and freddie mac toxic mortgage
Bail out . Many Canadian face debt levels for 2 life
spans . With 25 years mortgage amortization not
2 life spans many Canadians as like Americans will
go bankrupt and default on mortgages . As like the
USA ,Canada will face a financial fiscal cliff in the future
and tax payers will be crying like in the us.

#21 Maxamillion on 12.13.12 at 11:02 pm

Just in time for Christmas a new movie Les Miserables. I thought it was about real estate.

#22 LJ on 12.13.12 at 11:02 pm

No, Garth is correct, Calgary is not different, just a little slow…

The debt to income here is just as staggering and the local economy is on extremely shaky ground currently. The place where I work, a small business, has seen sales drop by about 70% over the past 3 months – just in time for Christmas, which is a disaster.

I know of several people who recently got laid off and more people working in housing that either just finished or are currently working on their last contract with nothing on the horizon.

There are also a lot of empty houses and condo’s sitting around without signs to advertise their availability. Sellers are waiting for the next greater fool (and oil and gas boom) and the lack of listings are evidently displaying a hope for future prosperity.

Don’t know if those out of work homebuilders will be able to make their payments in the new year…

Oh yeah, the City of Calgary announced last week that they were able to keep the property tax increase (MIL rate) down at 5.5%.

Boy, are we ever blessed here in the land of milk and honey. (sarcasm off)

#23 Victor V on 12.13.12 at 11:02 pm

#13 city slicker on 12.13.12 at 10:53 pm

Garth if the RE mkt was already hot pre 2006 why would the feds throw in the 40 bagger if the financial crisis would not hit till 2008?

Ask mr. Harper. I tried. — Garth

================================

Simple.

An indebted population of home owners is more likely to sway to the right and vote conservative.

#24 Cowtown Refugee on 12.13.12 at 11:06 pm

The oilpatch needs minimum $80 oil to make the world go around. Less than that and the patch withers.

Penn West got in trouble due to wells that won’t pay out.

Math is simple, even in the oilpatch. Spend more than you bring in and go broke.

Just like your next door neighbour.

#25 Intuitive Missus on 12.13.12 at 11:09 pm

From The Toronto Star. This just in …….
Standard & Poor’s lowered issuer credit ratings by one level for several Canadian lenders — the Bank of Nova Scotia and National Bank of Canada among them — as the country’s financial sector copes with a slowing Canadian economy.

In a statement issued Thursday, the New York-based ratings company also lowered issuer credit ratings on Home Capital Group Inc., Central 1 Credit Union, Caisse Centrale Desjardins and Laurentian Bank of Canada. It said the outlook is stable.

Canada’s banks, ranked the world’s soundest by the World Economic Forum, are “encountering incremental pressure from headwinds facing the Canadian economy,” Standard & Poor’s wrote in its statement.

“We expect that intensifying competition for loans and deposits will lead to pressure on profitability growth, especially in banks’ retail businesses.”

S&P also changed the outlook Thursday for Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank to “stable” from “negative.”

#26 Max Torque on 12.13.12 at 11:10 pm

I thought Toronto was #1 in arrogance….

#27 Tim on 12.13.12 at 11:11 pm

Carney has a good publicist you have to admit. For someone who caused a housing bubble he’s made out to be a hero for keeping rates low

#28 periwinkles on 12.13.12 at 11:11 pm

Wonder what F’s exit strategy gonna be? He’s got no fall guy. Carney thinks he’s escaped but is now an outsider in an old boys club. Carney should be asking who didn’t get the job and what could they do to me?

#29 will on 12.13.12 at 11:15 pm

When my father married my mother he said: “You can have a house in the country, and a car, OR you can have a house in the city.”

I’m not making this up. My mother told me this story (part of my RE education). See, my father knew his limits. He knew his worth and what he could do. I guess my message to the guy with woman troubles is that he has these troubles because he hasn’t made a firm offer. He doesn’t even have an offer because he’s letting the woman dictate what she is willing to settle for.

Know your worth. Know your limits. Make her a firm offer and make sure she understands your limits. No more bull shit living. Let’s get back to conservative living. Not this stupid liberal crap that the current government is encouraging.

love from Saskatoon

#30 DaleFromCalgary on 12.13.12 at 11:16 pm

Never mind the incipient housing collapse in Canada, Calgary house prices still haven’t recovered from their peak just before the Panic of 2008.

I live in the inner city neighbourhood of Altadore and a couple of blocks from me is a house completed in 2008 and never occupied. The original owner wanted $1.2 million in a neighbourhood of $600,000 houses. It never sold, the bank repossessed, and had to gut it and rebuild it because it was built during the 2008 boom by apprentices and handymen. It is now on its fifth realtor but no showings since there are no footprints on the unshovelled sidewalk.

This story is repeated throughout Calgary but because MLS resets
the time on market with each new realtor, the sales statistics look better than they actually are.

#31 dutch4505 on 12.13.12 at 11:17 pm

I use to work and live in Calgary. I am so happy that I moved to Bellingham WA. Calgary is still a dump. Have you been in downtown Calgary lately? Lots of hookers and empty “for lease” store fronts. They still don’t even know how to build a decent freeway system. With all of the Americans living there you would think that they would give the 1950s interstate blueprints for road construction to the city. The smart Calgarians are waiting for their vested pensions and then moving “out of dodge” ASAP. Feel sorry for the kids moving in and buying 5% down osb boxes.

#32 TakingResponsibility on 12.13.12 at 11:21 pm

I don’t know … Calgary really does seem “special.”

Calgary has Attainable Homes – a program where an individual only needs two grand and the tax-payer backed Attainable Homes program (conveniently “partnered” with Genworth and other developers) will fund a downpayment???

http://attainablehomescalgary.ca/our-home

(Of course, income cannot be over 80 thousand per)

And, the program is very good (err, “wildly successful” to quote correctly)…reports GlobalTV

http://www.globaltvcalgary.com/housing+program+proves+wildly+successful+as+vacancy+rates+plunge/6442766018/story.html

I guess part of the fallout of the Attainable Homes project is that Allan has paid for a program that successfully puts his “old” condo out of the market for those ‘buyers.’

In any case, I do not understand whatsoever how people do not get how this program further erodes housing affordability.

Housing-Affordability Industrial Complex??

#33 FYI on 12.13.12 at 11:22 pm

Foreclosure list is keep increasing in Edmonton. It seems whole Condo building got bankrupt.

http://edmontonhousefinder.com/edmonton-foreclosure-listings.html

#34 FYI on 12.13.12 at 11:26 pm

Hunk Carney is a captain of ship which will be sinking soon , so he is escaping before it start sinking and he will be the captain of the ship which already started to sink. He wouldn’t get blame in any case. Nice Move Hunk

#35 Tripp on 12.13.12 at 11:31 pm

“…and most arrogant city…”

Garth, with all due respect, I need to assume you have not been to the province of Quebec lately…

#36 Old Man on 12.13.12 at 11:32 pm

#14 mel in victoria – precious metals is like a woman as one day they love you and all is well, and with a turn of events they hate you, and walk away with no explanation whatsoever. So off to a pub to cry with a few beers to wipe away the pain of it all.

#37 Brendan on 12.13.12 at 11:33 pm

Hey Garth,

You have been spouting lots of numbers and facts that the housing market is crumbling, but a couple days ago I got a whooper of of a tell tale sign that is far better than your orgy of fancy facts.

A rural real estate agent I have used in the past and only know as a real estate that isn’t a phony, doesn’t own a porche and has never BS me sent me a promotional email trying to drum up business. That is fine, no problem with with advertising, except that I have known this agent for years and this is the first time they have ever sent me any promotional anything.

When the little slow and steady rural real estate agents starts flogging house porn its the worst sign of things to come.

Brendan

#38 Dr. WAYNE on 12.13.12 at 11:36 pm

#3 Terry on 12.13.12 at 10:16 pm

Hey! i’m first for once!

#4 Nodebt on 12.13.12 at 10:18 pm

Firsssst again hopefully!!!
++++++++++++++++++++++

Sorry Terry, you are not ‘first’, however, you have achieved the status of a$$hole … “for once”.

And Nodebt, you too are not first … if you were, ‘once’, then you are an a$$hole … “again”.

#39 Inglorious Investor on 12.13.12 at 11:38 pm

More and more news of a frackin’ bonanza in the US. The next several years will see a veritable rising flood of cheap oil and gas coming on stream. Keep in mind, energy is the fundamental input for, well, everything, but certainly for an economy.

With housing, wages and unions in the US already well along in the global rebalancing, a bit of austerity to show they are at least half serious about containing debt (to the chagrin of the modern monetary maniacs and Paul Krugman), high-efficiency technologies, and some adjustments in the labour markets to better match skills to demand, the US is potentially on the verge of an economic boom.

That’s not to say it will be all Leave It To Beaver or Beach Blanket Bingo, but don’t be too surprised at what can happen over the next several years. I figure they will use their energy abundance to rebuild the economy, mitigate inflation, save the dollar, and stave off a revolution. It just makes sense if you are Bronco Bama. Like a gift from the gods of the underworld (where all the shale is).

Meanwhile, Canadians will be drowning in debt while our tar sands look for a reason to live in a cheap oil world. Foreigners begin to question the reasons for moving here. And people in Toronto will wonder what were the reasons that home prices ever got so high in the first place.

#40 Mel on 12.13.12 at 11:48 pm

Old Man:

Sounds like you are talking about your own experiences. Maybe time to take a break from your ladies.

#41 Paulzen on 12.13.12 at 11:55 pm

Calgary is soooooo delusional.the concept of prices receeding is non existant. The inner city 30 foot lot houses and duplexes fetch 1m+.Peronally,I’m very bearish on this market,but it really seems extremely resilient to price corrections.even RBC in its latest forecast is bullish on Alberta.
One can argue that this city is compromised of self centered red necks,nevertheless at least 50 percent of the the population isn’t nativ of calgary.So why are they all so delusional?
I do agree on the employment stats,there are only Filipinos working here at low paying jobs,I’m not convinced better waged jobs are readily available.
Good night all

#42 squidly77 on 12.13.12 at 11:57 pm

Tons of edmonton foreclosures here..

http://www.knock-knock.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Edmonton-Foreclosures-Nov-30-2012.pdf

And here..

http://www.knock-knock.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Around-Edmonton-Foreclosures-Nov-30-2012.pdf

You know I love Alberta, its my home and a wonderfull place to live. But there is just NO damn way that house prices can be maintained here.

It was all over in Calgary in 2007 and now when the real tots bang their chests and snort “look prices are now only down 10% from 2007″ they hope that you are dumb enough not to calculate in the losses due to inflation as Calgary homes have only seen deflation since 2007.

Put a fork in it, Calgarys done like our premier.

#43 Sydneysider on 12.13.12 at 11:59 pm

#11 Old Man et al.

The behaviour of the Edmonton and Calgary markets is not very similar (at present). There have been no price rises/falls in Edmonton of any significance in the last few years.

#44 Canadian Watchdog on 12.14.12 at 12:05 am

The first shots across the bow have been fired.

S&P Takes Various Rating Actions On Canadian Banks

All ratings stable and two banks upgraded. Non event. — Garth

#45 coastal on 12.14.12 at 12:07 am

“Calgary is soooooo delusional.the concept of prices receeding is non existant.”

Same in Victoria, all you have to do is read the local blog where the majority are bulls (or fence sitting bulls about to sign on the dotted line), who are spittin’,sputterin’ and posting denials like Pavlov dogs at record rates never seen before. It’s really quite pathetic to read and is the ultimate indicator a major price correction is taking place. Even the local agent keeps slagging Garth that he hasn’t been right for five years. The stopped watch excuse is the lamest of them all…. as the kids story book says: “and they all fell down”…with one big fricking thud.

#46 Nodebt on 12.14.12 at 12:07 am

Hey gartho! Got a question regarding cpp,
I’m 38, do you think it will be there for me to collect
At age 60? I’m debating on whether I should just take
Out a dividend each year ? I understand that if I do that I can’t contribute to cpp or rrsp ‘s, I’m not relying on the government pensions when I retire, thanks

You call me that and expect an answer? — Garth

#47 Dr. WAYNE on 12.14.12 at 12:13 am

#45 Nodebt on 12.14.12 at 12:07 am

Hey gartho!

++++++++++++++++++++++

Don’t you just love the respectful, entitlement generation?

#48 Paul on 12.14.12 at 12:14 am

Kevin disagrees with you. 9.25 min mark.

http://www.cbc.ca/player/Shows/Shows/Lang+and+O%27Leary+Exchange/ID/2316104883/

Has he launched a line of volumnizing shampoos yet? — Garth

#49 Mr Buyer on 12.14.12 at 12:18 am

Let’s get back to conservative living. Not this stupid liberal crap
………………………………………………..
I do not want to dance this dance again but….We are where we are thanks to the Conservative/Reform types in office.

#50 Evil Magpie on 12.14.12 at 12:19 am

A lot of people in Calgary seem to enjoy tearing down postwar bungalows and putting up two new two-storey houses in their place. A pair of these went up nearby; one’s listed for 829K. It took nearly a month to actually get the price posted after the For Sale signs went up. We’ll see how long they stay on the market…

#51 Inglorious Investor on 12.14.12 at 12:25 am

A couple of notes on the banks:

• IMO, the mortgage changes, both in 2006 and this year were done at the behest of the big banks. The first changes were to help them generate revenues. The recent changes were to save them from having to take further potentially self-destructive actions in their competition for market share.

• Due to high debt levels, consumption in Canada may slow, which will dampen economic growth. But the banks are covered. Their biggest business is mortgages. By enticing Canadians into home “ownership” with cheap, candied money until saturation levels were reached, the banks have secured for themselves decades of steady, reliable cash flow, barring an economic catastrophe. If interest rates rise, the revenues will only increase. In business the best customer is the repeat customer. The banks have secured an entire generation of them.

#52 wes coast on 12.14.12 at 12:27 am

Keep the condo. Drop the house lusting G/F. Done.

#53 think again on 12.14.12 at 12:29 am

@45

…at least have the decency to show some respect if you expect some free advice from the ‘Oracle’…

#54 Hoof-Hearted on 12.14.12 at 12:32 am

#27 periwinkles on 12.13.12 at 11:11 pm

Wonder what F’s exit strategy gonna be? He’s got no fall guy. Carney thinks he’s escaped but is now an outsider in an old boys club. Carney should be asking who didn’t get the job and what could they do to me?
======================================

On March 17 ,2013 both will implode and “tank der lucky stars” to be mascots for Lucky Charms cereal

#55 Nodebt on 12.14.12 at 12:33 am

I meant Mr.Turner, sir

#56 Hoof-Hearted on 12.14.12 at 12:33 am

Dr Wayne at Olympics:

Quote :

” Gold medal?,….what an a$$hole”

#57 Nodebt on 12.14.12 at 12:37 am

No more whiskey for me tonite!

#58 Tyrell Pronghorn on 12.14.12 at 12:38 am

#28 will on 12.13.12 at 11:15 pm

Oh man. Someone’s into the cocoapuffs!

#59 Nodebt on 12.14.12 at 12:39 am

#55 Hoof-Hearted
What kind of doctor u figure that
POS Dr.Wayne is ?

#60 Too Much Debt on 12.14.12 at 12:43 am

#26 Tim
“Carney has a good publicist you have to admit. For someone who caused a housing bubble he’s made out to be a hero for keeping rates low”

He must have had the same publicist as Greenspan because he was well known as the “maestro” up until the US housing bust. Yet he is now largely thought of as one of the individuals who caused the bubble.

#61 erick on 12.14.12 at 12:55 am

I’m living in Montreal. This is an example of the kind of stuff I started receiving a few weeks ago, related to several different new condo programs (never seen something like that before) :
“When purchasing a condo unit in Phase 3 (Spring 2013) or Phase 4 (Winter/Spring 2014), you don’t have to pay municipal taxes, school taxes, condo fees or mortgage payments for the first 6 months after delivery. This promotion ends Sunday, December 16th.”

#62 Suede on 12.14.12 at 1:02 am

Moody’s lowered Vancouvers credit rating. Too many Olympic village bailouts. City of van property taxes will rise next year as per council meeting earlier this week.

Bc’s debt rating was lowered as well. Anyone know how that differs from a credit rating?

#63 SmarterThanYoo on 12.14.12 at 1:02 am

Dr. Wayne…I hope you are a real Doctor.

This means you should be able to remove that stick in your a$$ all on your own.

Grow up and start providing useful thoughts on the theme of this blog…gold, silver and being FIRST!

Haha

#64 DonDWest on 12.14.12 at 1:05 am

Its conservative fiscal policy that has brought us to this mess, and it will be the much worst conservative foreign policy that will cause the entire world to soon laugh at our misfortune. Some legacy you’ve left there, eh?!

You can forget spelling out the obvious to Albertans though, as far as they’re concerned they’re the land of big guns, big oil, big real estate, and Jesus sun rays – they’re indestructible.

#65 lucyj on 12.14.12 at 1:10 am

Why does almost everyone blame the government for their financial stupidity? Have we as a nation lost our ability to think our financial or real estate transactions through? Somehow all of our shortcomings are someone elses fault. Perhaps it is time that we started to take some respsibility for our actions and admit that maybe we screwed up………….

#66 VancouverJoe on 12.14.12 at 1:13 am

The frenzy must go on?

“Own a brand new condo in beautiful Port Coquitlam for less money than rent! If you have $10,000 saved up our builders will GIVE YOU the rest of your minimum 5% downpayment …”

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3474408371.html

#67 Shaking My Head on 12.14.12 at 1:16 am

Don’t just blame Carney! This all happened under Flaherty and Harper’s watch and in fact they helped encourage it. Flaherty even wanted to go to a 60year mortgage at one point.

#68 earlybird on 12.14.12 at 1:19 am

Noooo…not Calgary! ; ) Our one trick pony show is very bust and boom and is amplyfied by oil pricing. The energy development in the US could be a game changer…..As usual in Cowtown, when times are good, people flock here, and split just as fast when the tough times arrive. Ive seen listings sit for over a year, with minor price reductions. Ive also seen listings disappear and re-appear for the same price. Incredibly stubborn sellers….

#69 Joe on 12.14.12 at 1:26 am

Check out the Baltic Dry Index as a true unfudged global economic indicator.

#70 Hoof - Hearted on 12.14.12 at 1:45 am

HAMville :

Richmond records a property sale at -50% below assessed value.

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2012/12/richmond-records-sale-at-50-below.html

#71 KingBubbles on 12.14.12 at 1:51 am

happy wife – happy life

#72 Dr. WAYNE on 12.14.12 at 2:06 am

#55 Hoof-Hearted on 12.14.12 at 12:33 am
Dr Wayne at Olympics:
Quote :
” Gold medal?,….what an a$$hole”

#58 Nodebt on 12.14.12 at 12:39 am
#55 Hoof-Hearted
What kind of doctor u figure that
POS Dr.Wayne is ?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Konrad Lorenz – “We do not take humor seriously enough”

Need I say more … ?

#73 Alpha is just beta you don't understand on 12.14.12 at 2:07 am

Garth, are you seriously suggesting through the quote you use that Keynesian economics should be taken seriously? You’re old enough to remember the 1970s – and Garth, that was an era of a textbook implementation of Keynesian economics. It was also an era of low growth, high unemployment, and high inflation. Keynesian economics is a complete and total failure, both theoretically and empirically.

The problem isn’t F or his departure from Keynesian principles. The problem is too much government. Under no circumstances should the government offer mortgage insurance to anyone or any institution. The real problem is that the conservatives are in fact Keynesian economic nationalists coupled with a healthy dose of populism.

We could solve the housing problem overnight: no more government backed mortgage insurance.

#74 Harpon - response to #15 city slicker on 12.14.12 at 2:08 am

Message Start:
Hare Krisna, we had to bring in the 40year mortgage in 2006 as soon as we took office from the corrupt Liberals, to liberate all possible room for corporate home insurance profits in Kanata. I swear on the politicians’ bible, there was no massive bribe and there was no order from our shady masters. We did it by our own conservative (aka right-wing) belief for the good of all plain kanatian disadvantaged institutions that had to work hard to issue money from thin air (debt), the so called 1%. Hare Krisna also to the rest of “happy” 99% kanatians who voted me, hope their rental accomodation is filled with joy, non-resistant cockroaches &bed-bugs and well-educated landlords. Ameno.
EOM

#15 city slicker on 12.13.12 at 10:53 pm
Garth if the RE mkt was already hot pre 2006 why would the feds throw in the 40 bagger if the financial crisis would not hit till 2008?

Ask mr. Harper. I tried. — Garth
.

#75 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.14.12 at 2:10 am

-
“The 2006 budget that ushered in zero down payments and 40-year mortgages, say the analysts at Pacifica Partners, as a defining moment. “This one decision may be remembered in Canadian economic history books as an extremely grievous policy error.” — Or preplanned.

Further, “. . . Mark Carney from head of the Bank of Canada to boss at the Bank of England, a leading UK money mag had this to say: “Forget about the idea that Carney is coming over here to save us. Quite the contrary. He’s escaping from Canada just in time.” — The dots are connecting., but here is The Other Side of the Story, Deteriorating and Bloody politico trash.
*
Listening to the individuals who sing the Gregorian Chants and doing ‘Nothing Else Matters’, ‘Losing My Religion’ and ‘With or Without You’ gives me an excellent thought for the next lifecycle — gonna be a promoter / huckster! Link.
*
Gerald Celente Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery; Not Yer Average Couple So the Beckhams can afford a seven figure downturn in the price of their LA mansion; Bev Oda #2 Same shit, different country; Message to Sheeples is in the lights; Pension Bonds Slippery slope; Encana and Petro-China ink new deal; Obomba’s just not serious Or maybe he is holding out to the bitter end; Oil NAmerica has more than enough oil to look after itself, so price really doesn’t matter; Saving or Investing? Investing for me; Lowering Expectations That is a good way to re-arrange one’s life.

Banking Cartels and Drug Money How do we get a piece of the action? Socialism and Welfare; Krugman Nutbars Unlimited; Gold Mining There’s money t be made; Japan is down and China is up; Blindfolded man solves Rubik’s Cube in 30 second or less.
*
30 Minutes Old No rest for the wicked; Parisian Brothels Sure beats the money stuff! Further to Obomba’s Soviet Mistake from Wed. night, the TSA is going all soviet as well, Total Surveillance When a govt. does this, they’re scared of something and Socialism? “After America falls completely and totally to Socialism, there will be no more hope left in our world.”; Bizarre China’s marriage market; War on Drugs At last! A politico with an ounce of sense; Giant Squid Even the denizens of the deep are joining us for a Christmas feast and bloodbath! Fracking Going world wide and Fracking concerns; UK Not joining the EU super state; The Mayans were correct Dec. 21 is the end of their age, not the end of the world; More asteroids causing more hemmoroids; While we were sleeping . . . the UN passed a bill allowing them some control of the ‘net; 0:42 clip Meteor falls into the sea in Turkey, and Wave of Energy; Canoeing with Crocs.

#76 house burden on 12.14.12 at 2:10 am

BC’s Credit rating has slip to AAA- .
Don’t know what this will mean in the long run, but I predict more downgrades in the future and higher borrowing rates.

http://www.castanet.net/news/Business/84497/BC-credit-rating-slips

#77 robert on 12.14.12 at 2:29 am

Right after Christmas i expect that the listing count will begin to swell and by about March the average homeowner will come to realize that there will not be a better spring market and prices then will really move downward in a hurry. Salmon Arm IMO is in serious trouble as there are very few jobs and add to that no construction. Many residents have had to go to northern Alta to find work and if Fort Mac slows down this will just add more pressure on the families in Salmon Arm. No matter how you look at it this correction is ugly now and about to get uglier. My heart goes out to the young families who thought they were doing the right thing by buying a house. Why? Cause of us the baby boomer parents who drank the koolaid in the 60s and 70s. Anyone that gets joy from this lacks character and empathy for these families. I am beginning to think that another 40% price decline although sound extreme but is entirely possible. Time is the teller of all truths.

#78 Aussie Roy on 12.14.12 at 2:31 am

Aussie Update

VICTORIA’S budget has been king-hit by a collapse in revenues of almost $1 billion, forcing the Baillieu government to consider inflicting further spending cuts or tax increases to deliver its promised surplus.

The updated budget figures show predictions for mortgage stamp duty collections have been slashed by $285 million for 2012-13, with a loss of almost $1.2 billion over four years.

”Despite the challenges of the global financial crisis and a weaker national economy, Victoria’s finances remain among the strongest in Australia,” Mr Wells said.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-hit-by-plunge-in-revenue-20121213-2bcsb.html#ixzz2ExxMglOC

#79 Burnt Norton on 12.14.12 at 2:53 am

#110 Smoking Man on 12.13.12 at 12:09 pm

#83 DonDWest on 12.13.12 at 3:03 am

Re: education.

C’mon SM. Look up the word hypocrite. A couple weeks ago you smugly posted how profitable it is for you to mooch off industries that are gamed aka FIRE, medical, education, legal, gov’t, etc…

Pursuit of education / training in order to become a vendor to agencies within these industries entails jumping through (often irrelevant) hoops for years and years. This process simply separates the wheat from the chaff, the dedicated / committed from the posers / wannabes. Those with some calculated vision, willing to work hard enough, and with some luck along the way, can enjoy a rewarding career in the end. Of course the real education starts after graduation. Your faux too cool for school b.s. and DonD’s “toxic propaganda” victimhood is such obvious thinly veiled narcissism. And then you congratulate each other for it. Barf.

Sure you can drop out and try to claw your way to the top. Although you’re much less likely to get there than via jumping through hoops in school. Careful hoop selection can allow you to develop critical thinking skills in addition to building a reputable c.v. You know the system is rigged so figure out how to function profitably within it. Education is an investment in yourself. The trick is in balancing how much of it is simply a means to an end and how much is an end unto itself.

Oh but wait! We are Canadian! We deserve so much more than we have. Blame teachers. Blame feminists. Blame foreigners. Blame politicians. Blame boomers. Blame. Blame. Blame. Poor us. Wahh wahh. Stomp stomp.

Might as well just retreat to a cabin in the woods, a barstool in the city or a public library computer to complain anonymously online. Am I right?

#80 Ravishing Rick on 12.14.12 at 3:20 am

Ooooh this getting good. I was waiting for Flaherty to be dragged out for all of this, waiting, much too long. The conservatives need to be punished…except for Jason Kenney, he is doing a good job

#81 robert on 12.14.12 at 3:22 am

Hey, the only reason F goosed the mortgage market was to bribe us into giving Harper a majority.. And it worked. So now the pigeons are coming home to roost. Our resources are being sold out, Canadian jobs exported, foreign miners being imported by foreign companies to operate their mines. All this so our PM can dabble in Middle Eastern politics. Disgusting.

#82 Freedom First on 12.14.12 at 3:37 am

It would sound kind of nifty to be able to say that Canadians have been peckered by an elfin deity as well as totally F..C..H’ed. However, the Japanese, Europeans, and Americans live in a FCH pecker free zone, and yet, they too lost their virginity, and all their money, in their frenzied, horny, RE lust. Global RE Insanity, also affecting Canadians coast to coast. This same insanity is pervasive in gold, silver, individual stocks, and basically, any asset that someone can go lust after, and go “all in”.

Now, if you don’t believe in diversified portfolios with balance, and liquid assets, as covered by Garth in great, honest, patient & tolerant detail, there is sites on the web that pray to the god of each individual asset you lust after. Why not just go there? Or stop with the nonsense and learn.

#83 Twinkletoes on 12.14.12 at 3:57 am

Who’s F?

#84 Tony on 12.14.12 at 4:40 am

One thing that isn’t mentioned much is Alberta’s strange or obscure affinity for buying new. Price differences between new and old condos can be huge something that isn’t seen anywhere else in Canada. Of course their reasoning makes absolutely no sense at all as the older condos are much better built with more land in better locations. Most one bedroom condos are selling at less than half of what they sold for at the 2007 peak in Edmonton and around 35 to 40 percent less than the peak in Calgary. The only reason condos aren’t falling more in price is the vacancy rate is falling in both Calgary and Edmonton due to housing being priced so low as compared to the other major cities. One big negative is the price of oil can only go lower and natural gas will probably retest the U.S. 2.60 to 2.70 dollar mark. A big plus in Alberta is high paying jobs. This is mostly due to Albertans choosing not to work and collect welfare instead. All things said the future looks bleak in Alberta due to falling commodity prices mainly oil and natural gas.

#85 drydock on 12.14.12 at 4:52 am

Two words for Allan,

Neener neener.

#86 CalgaryBoy on 12.14.12 at 5:02 am

WoW, Calgary’s housing market is smokin’ with the average price of single family houses at $536K 1/2 way through December! We are gonna break the record of $505, 920 set in July of 2007! We are 8 months behind Vancouver, Toronto, and Ottawa! This is definitely getting exciting! Not only does Calgary have lessons to learn from the US, we have a perfect future look at Vancouver, Toronto, and Ottawa in order to plan out a purchase in Calgary!

#87 Tony on 12.14.12 at 5:11 am

Re: #14 mel in victoria on 12.13.12 at 10:48 pm

Good luck you’ll need plenty of it. Gold’s next move looks to be down to the U.S. $800 dollar mark. From there it should meet heavy near term resistance. From what i see gold should make the move down to the U.S. $1,200 mark by the fall of 2013 and down to $800 by mid 2015.

#88 TRT on 12.14.12 at 5:14 am

#50 inglorious investor,

Great post! I don’t think many realize who runs Canada.

#89 Asse on 12.14.12 at 5:45 am

Funny, couple of days ago we spoke with a ‘bank specialist ‘ because we were putting a lump sum down on our mortgage. Asked what a 5 year mtge goes for now and got the speal about last week she was offering 2.99 but because we were good clients (access to our accounts) it was still possible. If only she could have seen our other accounts. Her canned lines were pretty good but unfortunately they sounded tin.

#90 Richard and Zeus on 12.14.12 at 5:48 am

#58 Proctologist

I wonder when Effin H will start firing more of these useless pencil pushing taxpayer sucking $114,000 per year stealing guvmint werkers?

#91 Don't believe the hype on 12.14.12 at 6:09 am

Calgary is a lot more sound than the people on this blog would like to believe. In Calgary unlike most Canadian cities the private sector is still more lucurative to work for than being employed in the public sector. Alberta has less tax burdens on employers and employees another factor to the growing success of Calgary. The service sector economies of vancouver and toronto are no comparison to edmonton and calgary which has real industrial capacity. When the housing bubble does come to a head, Alberta will have the most resistence to falling prices in the real estate market, because of the strong job market and relatively lower taxes. Also houses in the suburbs of calgary like shawnessy are no where near 450k average, they are hovering around 300k to 350k average SFH.

#92 Longterm on 12.14.12 at 6:51 am

#22 Victor V on 12.13.12 at 11:02 pm

You nailed. G.W. Bush followed this exact policy line in the US in the early 2000s. We know how that ended.

Harper, a man obsessed with America and whose wet dream is Canada becoming a clone of the US or even entering some sort of union, pursed the same policy of expanding home ‘ownership’ as a tactic to increase the base of conservative voters. Clearly it didn’t work in the US and it won’t end differently in Canada.

The alternative intended or unintended consequences will be the same, a gutted middle class, inequity and social divisivness, things Canadians have spent decades working to overcome. Herr Harper is a man bent on the social destruction of Canada.

#93 Jack on 12.14.12 at 7:45 am

I hope it slows down in Alberta.then all these people from Ontario,and BC will move back home.The boom in the oil patch is in its final year.

#94 Regan on 12.14.12 at 8:14 am

This is more relevant to the post from a couple of days ago about investing, but I’m starting a RESP for the kids. They are 5, so there’s plenty of time before college, but how to invest. A bond fund seems like a good bet to preserve capital, but does the tax situation have any effect? My understanding is that the income grown in the account is taxed at their college-low levels when it’s withdrawn, so I’m assuming there’s some slight tax-advantage to NOT putting everything in CLF/CBO for conservative growth. With 10 years to go, wouldn’t it be better off in a slightly higher risk ETF that could actually generate some income worth taxing? I’d look for professional advice on this, but I’m a long way from having a six-figure account.

#95 Gord Morrow on 12.14.12 at 8:29 am

As usual a great post. I tend to think that in a huge part, Carney has perpetuated the housing and debt problems in Canada with his low interest rate policies. He actually admitted it the other day when the it was released that Bank of Canada warns own low rate policy poses risk to economy.

Carney is baling out before the sh*t hits the fan. Warning us is not the same things as doing anything. about it. For more on this check out this post (http://www.timeandmoneyconnection.com/2012/12/low-interest-rate-policy-puts-canadian.html)!

#96 TurnerNation on 12.14.12 at 8:56 am

Is this weblog turning into a penny dreadful? :-)

#97 live within your means on 12.14.12 at 8:57 am

#67 Shaking My Head on 12.14.12 at 1:16 am

I don’t blame Carney. The blame lies with F&H who brought in those 40 yr/0 down mtgs.

#98 Robert on 12.14.12 at 9:00 am

I recently sold my condo at a profit. I purchased it 1 1/2 years ago. It was in the Yonge and Eglinton area in toronto. Condo’s are selling if they are priced right and in a good location. It cracks me up reading all these posts about how we are in a freefall. Most of the people on this board haven’t owned any real estate in the last 10 years! So they missed a great ride. Obviously they weren’t sharp enough but now they have the wisdom to call the top?

#99 Smoking Man on 12.14.12 at 9:02 am

Holly hang over. Have no recollection how I made it home last night. Even scarier how I made it to bay street this morning.

Haha. WTF

#100 IM in C on 12.14.12 at 9:09 am

Hey all you Calgary bashers out there. The oil boom here in Alberta is the engine that is driving this country. You do not want to see that engine falter!
As for the Calgary housing market, it peaked in 2007, by 2008 it flat lined and for the last 4 years has very gently declined. There was a flurry of million dollar homes being sold, but with the new mortgage rules, that has faltered.

#101 AK on 12.14.12 at 9:30 am

#87 Tony on 12.14.12 at 5:11 am
Gold’s next move looks to be down to the U.S. $800 dollar mark. From there it should meet heavy near term resistance. From what i see gold should make the move down to the U.S. $1,200 mark by the fall of 2013 and down to $800 by mid 2015.

You are more optimistic about Gold than I am. I see Gold going down to $600.00 and Oil down to $29.00 by 2015.

#102 Jeff in Moose Jaw on 12.14.12 at 9:40 am

“Prior to the 2006 loosening of government insured mortgages; the Canadian real estate sector had already experienced a half decade of surging prices. Thus the policy change of 2006 was counter to basic Keynesian economics which advocates the use of fiscal and monetary policy for smoothing of business cycles.”

Exactly! Thank you for posting this.

#103 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 12.14.12 at 9:45 am

Hmmmm Dr Wayne is on a roll.

Proctologist perhaps?
Where the view never changes?

#104 Berniebee on 12.14.12 at 9:54 am

Ottawa RE observations from the field:

A neighbour put their corner lot, detached bungalow up for $419k. A well kept, nicely landscaped late fifties brick detached house with a metal roof (most houses here have shingled roofs.) but the house backs on to a 3 storey triplex, and the backyard is mostly paved driveway.
Reduced it after 2 months to $387k . Then removed listing (“Wanted another agent” according to another neighbour.) and relisted for $369k. (Voila, new listing!
Maybe now it will sell at “98% of asking price.”)
Meanwhile, two other houses in the ‘hood (Elmvale) have sold, asking in the $350 range. This is the low end in this area, and from looking at the listings, these two offered a lot for the money.

Meanwhile, someone hasn’t received the memo:
A tiny, run down cape cod (which we visited but rejected as too small.) was sold for around $299k in the spring and is the subject to an attempted flip. Many renos done (exterior , windows, granite (of course!) kitchen with an asking price of $415k. This price would have been stretching it for this model in the pre-correction spring, but at this point it is priced for a galaxy far, far away. I think the eventual selling price will zap house flippers out of this hood…

#105 Smoking Man on 12.14.12 at 9:57 am

#79 Burnt Norton.

A well written rebuttal, and sadly you fail to see the obvious elephant in the room.

There is a thing called schooling and a thing called education.

The two give you the impression that they are related. They are not.

#106 Gotthardbahn on 12.14.12 at 10:13 am

I’ll believe the housing market has tanked in Canada when the three new condo developments within a five-minute walk of my rental apartment at Young & Eligible in Toronto get nixed. These proposed buildings are HUGE and one will require extensive demolition of existing structures. Remember that speculation come-on I sent you last summer? I’m waiting to see how it all turns out in the next six-nine months.

#107 live within your means on 12.14.12 at 10:54 am

TOT – Old friend of mine (I met my DH thru her) went to ER the other day in extreme pain. Yesterday they operated & removed her 1 remaining ovary, etc. & sent surrounding tissue for biopsy. She’s still on heavy morphine. Could take up to 2 weeks (max) according to her DIL nurse to get the results. Hope she get results sooner. Dr. told her to expect the worst. I’m so PO’d that he said that. When you’re going through major health problems like that, you need positive comments or none at all. I know. She’s fit – walks daily & swims 2 days a week.

At least she’s on a morphine drip, but is slightly out of it. When I had major surgery 9+ years ago, the anesthetist convinced me to have an epidural so I could control a morphine drip for pain. Never happened. I was too weak to complain at that time. I was at 10 level pain one day & a nurse put a needle in my arm to relieve my pain – the pain from that needle was beyond belief & I said never again.

#108 LaughingCon on 12.14.12 at 11:03 am

The actual debt report that Garth referenced above has this interesting line:
“In the July-September period, households borrowed $27.3-billion, $18.4-billion of that in mortgages, while consumer credit levels increased by $7-billion to $474-billion.”

Anyone with links to the actual CREA nationwide numbers – sales and average price to calculate the total amount in residential sales.

Then subtract the total mortgages and we will get the actual down-payment numbers for these three months.

TREB is $9,646,349,398 total July to Sep.
REBGV is $3,187,382,800

It is going to be a nasty crash realtors, a nasty crash!

#109 Dupcheck on 12.14.12 at 11:12 am

Garth, i have a question:

If the house prices correct and go down, will the Gov raise taxes in general to make up for any loses in income and support more people without jobs or homes?

No. — Garth

#110 Blacksheep on 12.14.12 at 11:18 am

Victor V # 23,

“Simple.”

“An indebted population of home owners is more
likely to sway to the right and vote conservative.”
————————————————-
Longterm # 92,

“Harper” – “pursed the same policy of expanding home ‘ownership’ as a tactic to increase the base
of conservative voters.”
————————————————-
I believe you guys should think bigger.

There has been a global housing bubble in most Western countries. This has taken place, regardless of governmental leanings. Left, Right or Communist
China.

take care
Blacksheep

#111 Bottoms_Up on 12.14.12 at 11:21 am

#94 Regan on 12.14.12 at 8:14 am
—————————————
Yes you want growth in the early years and as they get toward needing the money move it into more stable fixed income type stuff.

#112 Bottoms_Up on 12.14.12 at 11:24 am

#90 Richard and Zeus on 12.14.12 at 5:48 am
————————————————
That’s total compensation, not just salaries. If one did an apples-to-apples comparison of the education and calibre of public sector workers vs. private sector workers, I bet the private sector total compensation would be AT LEAST 114k for this calibre of worker.

#113 DM in C on 12.14.12 at 11:29 am

#107 — TOT no frigging kidding. Not even a semblance of relevance.

I think you need friends or Facebook.

#114 M on 12.14.12 at 11:30 am

#98 Robert,
Ok, let’s have the details and do a math check. By the way, own and have owned both residential and commercial property. No basement dwellers here my friend…..well if we don’t go back to the two years in college when I rented a broom closet by the furnace in a 100 year old bungy.

#115 tkid on 12.14.12 at 11:37 am

Dr. told her to expect the worst. I’m so PO’d that he said that.

I have personal experience that if the doctor isn’t blunt and scaring the crap out of the patient when cancer could be an issue, the patient will live in denial and more than likely not seek the treatment they need and/or get their affairs in order.

What? Me need a will to ensure my three children are taken care of if I die? No way do I need a will! I’m going to beat this disease!

Denial isn’t just a river in Egypt.

#116 Daisy Mae on 12.14.12 at 11:38 am

#27Tim: “Carney has a good publicist you have to admit. For someone who caused a housing bubble he’s made out to be a hero for keeping rates low.”

****************

Not for long. He’s being exposed.

#117 Big Block Power on 12.14.12 at 11:53 am

Good morning all!

Edmonton and Calgary RE should start dropping in 2013 markedly.

Drilling rig utilization is 50% during peak season and oil companies are absorbing $20/boe discounts on light sweet crude.

Things are not looking good here….

#118 Paul on 12.14.12 at 11:55 am

What’s the Blue Book of Real Estate? Any comments on the RIET? 8%?

http://leagueinvestment.ca/bluebook?mid=gaw&cid=content&gid=image&gclid=CI3Hyo6fmrQCFSXZQgod7nQAWw

Thanks

Yield pigs get slaughtered. — Garth

#119 Daisy Mae on 12.14.12 at 12:11 pm

#65 LucyJ: “You can’t dangle 2.99% mortgages under everyone’s noses without a giant increase in borrowing and a bloating of home prices to match.”

#120 Daisy Mae on 12.14.12 at 12:13 pm

#67Shaking My Head: “Don’t just blame Carney! This all happened under Flaherty and Harper’s watch and in fact they helped encourage it. Flaherty even wanted to go to a 60year mortgage at one point.”

**************

Of course. No one makes a move without Harpers’ approval.

#121 hangfire on 12.14.12 at 12:16 pm

Canada has only one industry…..outside the civil service it’s resources or nothing. The liberals have enshrined ethnic rights over the rights of Canadians in our Charter of Tears….which makes it possible for foriegners to exercise their rights above the interests of Canadians…….and you thought it was OK to allow political correctness to run rampant over national interests?

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Chinese+miner+launches+human+rights+complaint+against/7696051/story.html

With the economy in a death spiral ( technical term…don’t bother Garth it’s over your head) our oilpatch engineers can only look forward to lower wages….the country can expect lower revenue from the oil patch due to Chinese expansion and American industry) the only thing thats guaranteed is higher taxation to support the uneven status quo of unionized civic servants.

#122 Renting in leaside on 12.14.12 at 12:25 pm

I think Dr Wayne, old man and smoking man are all the same guy…

#123 Ralph Cramdown on 12.14.12 at 12:34 pm

http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/12289-League-REIT-suspends-distributions-in-June

#124 Ralph Cramdown on 12.14.12 at 12:39 pm

If anyone’s looking for gift ideas or DIY investing advice, I’m currently reading “The 7 Most Important Equations for Your Retirement.”

Let’s just say that if you’re into math, investing or history, it’s far, far less boring than the title would suggest. Geez, I should start a blog so I can link to Amazon and make $2.

#125 Toronto_CA on 12.14.12 at 12:54 pm

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-14/canada-october-factory-sales-fall-most-in-9-months-on-aircraft.html

Nothing to see here. Yep…things are great in Canada.

If RE corrects as it looks like, we’ve not got a whole lot to fall back on to keep us from recession, do we? Let’s hope natural resources can keep us from a made in Canada depression.

#126 jess on 12.14.12 at 1:10 pm

seems to still be falling

“After a raid at Deutsche Bank’s headquarters, the company disclosed Wednesday that two of its highest-ranking executives were a focus of a tax evasion investigation, dealing a fresh blow to the German institution’s already battered reputation.”

#127 ChickenLittle on 12.14.12 at 1:30 pm

I always thought Vancouver was # 1 for arrogance…

Maybe it isn’t arrogance. Maybe it is just denial because no one wants to admit to buying an over priced home. No one wants to admit they made a stupid mistake!

As this now wiser and now underemployed student now admits, “Do what you’re told, do the right thing, and good things will happen to you.”

I think some people were sold a bill of goods, and they just don’t want to admit it. Hence the whole point of this blog!

#128 City Slicker on 12.14.12 at 1:35 pm

#15 city slicker on 12.13.12 at 10:53 pm
Garth if the RE mkt was already hot pre 2006 why would the feds throw in the 40 bagger if the financial crisis would not hit till 2008?

Ask mr. Harper. I tried. — Garth

———————————————————-
If I was part of the cabinet I would have stood my ground and start a probe on it. Likely there was mega bucks involved with friends of the RE cartel. JMHO

Absurd. — Garth

#129 Proud Musty Basement Dweller on 12.14.12 at 1:53 pm

Carney, F, and H, are definitely to blame for the upcoming carnage of the new (and some not so new) and maxed out homeowners.

My co-worker had to sell his Port Coquitlam condo, finally sold it last week after 3 months on the market.

He had to take a bath of $45k on a $300k condo. (a very nice newer one, good location, hardwood and granite everywhere). He bought it in 2008. That $45k loss doesn’t include Real Estate Agent Fees and all his other miscellaneous costs of dumping the place.

Not a great investment, lesson learned for him , he says.

#130 T.O. Bubble Boy on 12.14.12 at 2:14 pm

@ #118 Paul on 12.14.12 at 11:55 am
What’s the Blue Book of Real Estate? Any comments on the RIET? 8%?

http://leagueinvestment.ca/bluebook?mid=gaw&cid=content&gid=image&gclid=CI3Hyo6fmrQCFSXZQgod7nQAWw
________

Always Google before you buy… you will find important info like this:
http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/12289-League-REIT-suspends-distributions-in-June

#131 T.O. Bubble Boy on 12.14.12 at 2:15 pm

oops – Ralph Cramdown beat me to it.

#132 Seriously? on 12.14.12 at 2:15 pm

For those of you that don’t understand where the term Peon comes from.

Regard the picture and realize that you are represented by the little guy on the bottom and you are being “peed-on”.

Seriously

#133 Molson Ukrainian on 12.14.12 at 2:18 pm

Edmonton and Calgary will be safe over the long haul. There will be no bust in Alberta, only flatline with a very slight decline, followed by another boom, flatline, boom, flatline.
House prices increase and stabilize in areas with heavy economic activity. The Oilsands is projected to have capital investments of $218 billion over the next 25 years. Never in Canadian history has a industry had such high projections.

“The oilsands are going to be the economic engine for the country for the foreseeable future, for the next 25 to 30 years, and it is akin to the impact of building the national railway in the 1880s,” said Marc Joiner, a partner at Deloitte in Toronto.

The Oilsands, like it or not is irrelevant, are here to stay for all of our lifetimes, as well as our childrens.
There will be slower times, but overall these plants need maintaining, periodic shutdowns for repair, and all of the economic factors that directly and indirectly are associated. H is creating immigration policies to fast track skilled labourers to Alberta. These people need to eat and need a place to sleep.

“The Deloitte report lists some facts about the oilsands, including the estimated generation of $2.1 trillion in economic benefits over the next 25 years and 905,000 jobs across Canada by 2035. Outside Alberta, about $5 billion each year in supplies and services will be flooding into the province, primarily from B.C., Ontario and Quebec, states the report.”

Alberta is different, and that’s why your friends and family have moved here, and will continue to.

#134 steve p on 12.14.12 at 2:25 pm

“Forget about the idea that Carney is coming over here to save us. Quite the contrary. He’s escaping from Canada just in time.”

same thing with mcguinty

#135 T.O. Bubble Boy on 12.14.12 at 2:37 pm

Sherry Cooper out, Douglas Porter in as Chief Economist at BMO:
http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/chief+economist+Douglas+Porter+will+replace+Sherry+Cooper/7699971/story.html

Garth – will Ms. Cooper have more time for special appearances on the blog now?

#136 live within your means on 12.14.12 at 2:43 pm

#115 tkid on 12.14.12 at 11:37 am
Dr. told her to expect the worst. I’m so PO’d that he said that.

I have personal experience that if the doctor isn’t blunt and scaring the crap out of the patient when cancer could be an issue, the patient will live in denial and more than likely not seek the treatment they need and/or get their affairs in order
…………….

She’ll soon be 70 and had cancer eons ago – that’s why she only has one ovary left. She also has several good friends who have had cancer – me included. But I don’t appreciate a Dr. who says to her prepare for the worst when she’s in the state she is in – especially high on morphine – & may not know the results of a biopsy for 2 weeks. She’s not stupid. She’s a grandmother and has her affairs in order. Thankfully, she’s got so many good friends who will be there to support her.

#137 Franke le Skank on 12.14.12 at 2:48 pm

#133 Molson Ukrainian on 12.14.12 at 2:18 pm
News flash, everybody is being told the same thing. Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Saskatoon are all “special” in their own way and prices will only flat line, or experience a soft landing, or slight decline. The RE cartel plays on your arrogance and give you into a false sense of security so that gullible people will continue to buy. Its a downward spiral that is close to the bottom, you’re not special and it isn’t different in Calgary.

#138 Rich Renter on 12.14.12 at 2:48 pm

Calgary rental vacancies are once more in decline and consequently rents are once more on the rise.
Lived and rented here since 2006, kid almost reasy for school but we’ll stick it out in the rental market.
Houses prices here are ridiculous.

#139 TakingResponsibility on 12.14.12 at 2:49 pm

Oh, Calgary, bubbly city!

Allan represents, for sure!!

The city where everyone and their dog is an engineer! Or, a realtor!

Housing Over Supply.

Engineer Over Supply.

Realtor Over Supply.

#140 Pr on 12.14.12 at 3:10 pm

…He’s escaping from Canada just in time…

So funny! But i suspect, beside being funny, that is sadly true!

#141 brainsail on 12.14.12 at 3:20 pm

I remember when I graduated from university in 1973 and my relatives and friends convinced me to move back to Edmonton because Alberta was going to be the “Center of the Universe”. Oil was going to be $84/B by 1984.

10 years later I was…ah…I’ll stop there. I don’t want to waste anyone’s time!

#142 joe on 12.14.12 at 3:23 pm

#133 Molson Ukrainian – you are dillusional, everybody I talk to in oil and gas talks about a slowdown and layoffs all around me. Dont know what world you are living in. You must be mortgaged to the max. Yes there are more jobs here then say Prince George or Halifax but this is not the land of milk and honey. This is the land of the highly indebted and young money, and will fall with the rest of Canada, just lag slightly because the young money isnt in tune with whats going on until its in the MSM.

Alberta will flat line and boom and flat line and boom over and over? Like it did in 07? when Calgary took a 18% haircut before being rescued by F’s actions. Or in the early 80’s Calgary real estate catastrophe with corrections of over 30%.

I suggest you clear some debt and stop drinking the kool aid.

#143 Doug in London on 12.14.12 at 3:29 pm

I’ve been following this blog since spring of 2010, and in EVERY comments section there were doubters who disagreed with Garth’s explanations about why a real estate correction was coming. They were all variations on why it’s different here like “everyone wants to live here”, or Toronto/Vancouver is now a world class cosmopolitan city”, “immigration will keep demand up”, “we have a strong tradition of home ownership in this country”, the hot Asian money, or other excuses. It seem to me there have been a lot fewer doubters lately. What happened? Where have they all gone? Doesn’t anyone have the balls to stand up for what they really believe in anymore?

#144 Soylent Green is People on 12.14.12 at 3:29 pm

Will it be in The Economist?????

re this:

In discussing the upcoming move of Mark Carney from head of the Bank of Canada to boss at the Bank of England, a leading UK money mag had this to say: “Forget about the idea that Carney is coming over here to save us. Quite the contrary. He’s escaping from Canada just in time.”

.

#145 Molson Ukrainian on 12.14.12 at 3:56 pm

#142 joe

Actually yes this is the land of milk and honey. More jobs than anywhere else in the country, never mind Halifax or PG. As for layoffs, most jobs are short term contract work, having 3 or 4 employers in a year is the norm. Nov Dec is always a slow time of year, and 2013 has some major work planned. You’ll see.
As do your 18% decline 2007 Calgary stat, stop picking certain time slots to justify yourself. Anyone who bought in Alberta at any point between 1986-2006 is laughing all the way to the bank.

Garth has said repeatedly some areas will be less affected than others. Alberta will barely be touched.

What part of $218 billion in investment do you not understand?
As for the early 80’s, interest rates went into the teens. That won’t happen again in our lifetime.

#146 Molson Ukrainian on 12.14.12 at 4:00 pm

#142 joe

By the way I have no debt. Quite the opposite thanks to just one Edmonton property investment.

#147 brainsail on 12.14.12 at 4:05 pm

News from another planet called Edmonton.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Lamphier+Edmonton+roll+lucky/7691047/story.html

#148 Devore on 12.14.12 at 4:07 pm

#73 Alpha is just beta you don’t understand

As I’ve said recently, in not so many words, this is not about who is right, but who is left. And the ones left running the economy are Keynesians. If you continue to predict responses and outcomes according to any other philosophy, you will continue to be disappointed, and wrong.

The world was collapsing in the 70s. It didn’t. The world was collapsing in 2008. It didn’t. According to, say, Austrians, it should have, but fact remains it didn’t.

The saying goes “you can be right, or you can be happy“, and that’s really all this is.

#149 Molson Ukrainian on 12.14.12 at 4:08 pm

#137 Franke le Skank

How much do you actually think average sfh prices will decline then?

Those little cottage towns on the west coast and vacation homes in the Okanogan will be hit the hardest IMO.
TO and Van prices are ridiculous, so a 25 % correction is a good ballpark I would say.
As for Cgy, Edm, Sask, Reg…too much work planned and people from all over Canada, and the world are migrating to these places to work. Maybe 10% drop give or take. Big deal. Still safer than renting for the next 10 years.

#150 Devore on 12.14.12 at 4:21 pm

#118 Paul

Oh, not League Investment again… don’t people even use Google these days?

#151 Timing is Everything on 12.14.12 at 4:24 pm

Very small story in the big picture…

Our 12 year old Bosch dishwasher, ‘Engineered and Made in Germany’ with German parts, finally died (heavily used). The washer was not worth repairing. I just installed a new Bosch dishwasher yesterday at our bunker. Did some ‘research’, because I’m bored.

The new Bosch label reads, and I quote, ‘Engineered in Germany – Made in the USA and imported parts’. I suspect a lot of the parts come from China.

I suppose Canada, possibly, supplied some of the raw materials to manufacture the washer, but nothing else.

Here’s another thing, we paid $599 ($300 off MRSP) from Sears. The local stores in Victoria quoted over $900 for the same model. Sears had to ship the washer from their central warehouse in Calgary. It would cost a Sears costumer in Calgary the same price. The same model in the US costs $599 to $699 not including delivery.

I expect the new washer to last 5-7 years.

C’mon Ontario…Can’t you even make a dishwasher these daze. Fallout indeed.

http://tinyurl.com/cp5lf7e

http://tinyurl.com/dyyehqr

#152 Hoof - Hearted on 12.14.12 at 4:55 pm

Banksters and Crony Capitalism

Guest: Michael Kirsch talks about How Andrew Jackson Destroyed the United States.

http://grizzom.blogspot.ca/2012/12/spingola-speaks-20121212.html
=================================

Excellent interview….

Jackson was often promoted as the person who would clean out the crooked banking industry.

No, in fact, he was crookeder than a dogs hind leg. The US at the time had State Banks , who served their local clientele(sounds like an early credit union style system)

He, as President literally took money from these local banks, put it into NYC Wall Street Banks, who speculated like hell with these ill -gotten funds… wreaked havoc on the citizens..unbelievable corruption.

Deja Vu all over again? History repeating itself today?

Anyway recommend listening to realize things never seems to change , we never learn.

#153 Old Man on 12.14.12 at 4:55 pm

Alberta is a one horse town, and this oilsands project has become a fools paradise. The costing figures just don’t add up in my book at current spot prices because costs too much to process this bitumen; not to mention that to sell this garbage into the world market to be refined costs a huge discount. So what is the net profit after all these expenses? Not enough to yield a good return on invested capital, so you in Alberta better saddle up for a good ride, as the bell tolls for thee, as you turn is coming with a crash in Real Estate.

#154 TakingResponsibility on 12.14.12 at 5:05 pm

haha!

Molson Ukrainian = ZOMBIE

Reading a little and doing a little research can facilitate a more factual and realistic analysis than merely parroting the koolaid.

“TO and Van prices are ridiculous, so a 25 % correction is a good ballpark I would say.”

Check the much more than 25% price drops:

http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/2012/12/10/the-weekly-drop-december-10-2012/

and/or:

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/

Price Drops Abound. Alberta is no different, other than we have more foreign workers assisting in bringing income levels down.

#155 Smoking Man on 12.14.12 at 5:08 pm

Another one loses his mind……. Kids this time. 5 year olds.

This World Sucks……..

But we never hear of a wacjob shoots up fire hall.

Firemen don’t judge, they don’t keep score, and they don’t separate, they don’t exclude.

The just risk there lives to save others.

Think about that.

#156 Form Man on 12.14.12 at 5:13 pm

#153 Old Man

You might be right. Kind of ironic, as Harper has invested most of his political capital in the oil sands………..

#157 Gregor Samsa on 12.14.12 at 5:17 pm

If the doomers are right about Calgary, I honestly don’t see it.

Anecdotally, there are more foreigners in town looking for work than there has been in the past 3 years (and I assume some of them are finding jobs or they wouldn’t be here). The rental market is also fairly tight because of this.

Also there is TONS of construction activity going on over the winter. Condos are still going up around the city, new infills still going up around the city, new commercial spaces still going up around the city. People are still buying. Oilsands jobs are still paying six figures. Conservative MPs that don’t bother campaigning are still winning elections. Chinese investment dollars are being primed to come in and keep things lurching along.

I won’t deny that the Albertan economy is seriously sick and this should all blow up at some point, but not in the short term.

Maybe after Vancouver and Toronto tank, Calgary goes next, but not before.

#158 Franke le Skank on 12.14.12 at 5:24 pm

#149 Molson Ukrainian on 12.14.12 at 4:08 pm
I have no idea how much they will drop, but if I were to guess I would say at least 15% in 2013. I’m a Toronto resident and prices here are starting to drop. Some will argue that its off season but I’ve been watching the market for years and its not normal for prices to drop at this time of the year even if its considered a slow time for RE.

The fact that there’s lots of work in Alberta is irrelevant. People in AB are just as susceptible to over extending themselves as everyone one else on the planet. It doesn’t matter how much they make or how secure their jobs are, if the bank will give them a ton of cash at a low rate they will take it and buy more than they can afford.

#159 Old Man on 12.14.12 at 5:31 pm

#153 Form Man – Harper aka Caesar, and the rest of his clowns are clueless. Caesar is best described as a ring master conducting a three ring circus with no direction for Canada, as power is his thing, a man with no conscience, as power is his lover, and his puppets will follow like sheep, as they are all selling out for the betterment of Canada, on his agenda. Garth Turner is a man with integrity, as never sold out.

#160 Cowtown Cowboy on 12.14.12 at 5:42 pm

#30 DaleFromCalgary

Not sure I would call Altadore ‘inner-city’, unless you consider Glenmore Tr. to be the beltline….

Still lots of jobs and lots of $$$ to be made in CGY, but if we can’t start finding better ways to move our gas and oil, the US’s surge in production will have some negative consequences for us, but it’s probably better than trying to figure out how to sell the smog or the rain….

#161 Form Man on 12.14.12 at 5:59 pm

#159 Old Man

I agree, so then who is Brutus ?

#162 spaceman on 12.14.12 at 6:00 pm

Is it true that homeowners renewing their mortgages will have to go through the new criteria to re-qualify
or will they automatically get the mortgage.

If you refinance with a different company, yes they can choose to requalify you, but if you renew existing, (usually at a higher rate) you typically do not have to requalify, it is the same mortgage, you are just resetting the term, amort stays the same wether its a 30 or 35 or 40, it still is at that time.

However if you want to grab a cheaper rate or change mortgages, you pay to register, and are subject to all the new rules. You may also incur legal fees, inspection, and mortgage insurance fees.

Talk to you bank or Mortgage specialist, each bank is different.

#163 Molson Ukrainian on 12.14.12 at 6:01 pm

#154 TakingResponsibility

If you read my post you would’ve seen I said 25% for average sfh.

#158 Franke le Skank

Actually, the fact AB has lots of work DOES matter. AB and SK have the highest GDP by far and when you are collecting paychecks you are paying your mortgage.
As Garth has said, houses are only worth what people are willing to pay for them. When you have people consistently moving to AB and making 6 fig’s, they can afford a $350k mrtg.
In Fort Mac, it’s normall for a couple to bring in $300k/yr in gross income. Therefore a $700k price tag on a house for that couple isn’t unfeasable.

Btw, Edm isn’t a one horse town. Plenty of gov’t, Univ, hospital jobs and everything in between to support those industries.

#164 Old Man on 12.14.12 at 6:20 pm

#161 Form Man – the time will come when Caesar once again will say ” ET TU BRUTE “. I do not know the day or time or hour, but it shall come, so be patient.

#165 brainsail on 12.14.12 at 6:53 pm

#151 Timing is Everything on 12.14.12 at 4:24 pm

“I suppose Canada, possibly, supplied some of the raw materials to manufacture the washer, but nothing else.”

I remember several years ago I bought an inexpensive Black and Dekker (SP?) electric leaf blower for blowing off the water after washing our cars. We live in the US. The box said in big letters “Made In Canada”. I thought at the time this should be interesting. I got home and opened the box and started to read the manual. On the first page there was a disclaimer, “Only the cardboard box was made in Canada, everything else was made in China.”

There are a lot of misconceptions about “Made in” vs. “Assembled in” vs. “Manufactured in”, etc.

Today, the typical American car “Made in America” only takes an average of 12 man hours to assemble with the help of robotics, while the actual parts are sourced from all around the world. From a TV program that I watched, the American car produced with the most authentic American parts today is the Corvette because 63% of its parts are actually made in America.

People are outraged because they the they think the Iphone stuff is all “Made in China”. Reality is the expensive components were made in other parts of the world and shipped to China only for assembly. A few very tiny little screws and some glue here and there, plus the packaging, a very boring job that most North Americans would not tolerate for long. Foxconn gets only about $10 for each Iphone.

Cheers

#166 Westernman on 12.14.12 at 6:55 pm

Dupcheck @ # 109
Where have you been hiding? In case you hadn’t noticed you are living in Socialist Nanny-State Canada where the government ALWAYS continues to raise taxes to support the useless and self-entitled… since when have they needed an excuse?

#167 jess on 12.14.12 at 7:01 pm

The Economic Club of New York
427th Meeting
105th Year
December 10, 2012

The Honorable Mervyn A. King
Governor of the Bank of England

…”Both your economy (usa)and mine need to re-balance. But the need to re-balance is (uk) not confined to those countries which previously had large trade deficits. Indeed by the laws of arithmetic if we have to re-balance, there must be some other countries out there also that have to re-balance. And this contrast between the surplus and deficit countries is a problem overshadowing us all. It’s not a new problem. It was a problem discussed at length at Bretton Woods in 1944. No solution was found to it then. And we haven’t found a solution to it since….”

16 of 31
http://econclubny.com/events/Transcript_Mervyn_King_12.10.12.pdf

#168 Hoof - Hearted on 12.14.12 at 7:03 pm

#165 brainsail on 12.14.12 at 6:53 pm

Yeah I was wondering about where that a$$hole Waynker came from….

FYI Dr. Seuss was not a real Doctor and Colonel Sanders was not a real Colonel

#169 bill on 12.14.12 at 7:29 pm

”Who is it in the press that calls on me?”

we need a sayer of sooth first, eh?
shrill voice too…

#170 Stoopid Idiot on 12.14.12 at 7:53 pm

Dr. Wayne:

FFfffffffiiiirst

I don’t know what your problem is, but I bet it’s hard to pronounce.

#171 Old Man on 12.14.12 at 7:53 pm

#168 Hoof – Hearted : leave Sanders off the page, as he moved to Clarkson in 1964 which was west of Port Credit, and his personal lawyer was Jim Allen, and he threw some wild parties that I attended. Lots of babes and free food during the early 1970’s; oh the Smoking Man would have freaked about it all, as the Colonel was a big player with the women and was a bad boy.

#172 Joe on 12.14.12 at 7:56 pm

@155 Smoking Man

Good point, lots of schools have been shot up.
From what I am hearing the shooters mother worked there.
Another tragedy is that 20,000 kids starve to death every day.
In todays North Shore News the story of a woman who is feeding 100 Filipino children a day if you want to spread the seasons cheer and donate to a good cause you can help by donating to Hope For The Nations – 99 Days Of Hope project. Merry Christmas.

#173 Form Man on 12.14.12 at 8:22 pm

#166 westernman

so if Harper is a socialist, who do you propose as a true conservative ?

#174 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.14.12 at 8:50 pm

-
#152 Hoof – Hearted — “Banksters and Crony Capitalism . . . No, in fact, he was crookeder than a dogs hind leg. Deja Vu all over again? History repeating itself today?” — Well spotted! Yes, it is history repeating but it is curious to see what the outcome will be. Rebirth plays a part. The individual may have come back to finish his work. Good post.
*
HSBC jokes and links; Deutsche Bank Now it has become a carbon tax fraud; 10:59 clip “Bernanke’s money for nothing means Obama issues debt for free.” — and — Pic only Ben as a child; Small Business is Dying across NAmerica; An Economic Fairytale Should read A Western Economic Fairytale, and Offshore Trillions sitting outside NAmerica; 3:41 clip Tip of the iceberg; Bank Repos getting higher.
*
‘Quake and Shake time 190 miles from San Onofre nuke plant in California; Civil War #2 “This is only the beginning of the real “Blood Tide”. (Yes, I know Mossad and MI6 was involved,.. but OUR government supplied the E737’s that flew into the Twin Towers, and the AGM that hit the Pentagon).”; Red, White and Blue Storm Rising; GW and Orthodox Religion Same status. This is better suited to The Daily Mash, it’s so stupid; 8:34 clip Anti-depressants, school shooters and suicide, and Psychiatry is out of control; Russia uniting the post-Soviet era; Dropping Like Flies No one likes Noddin’ anymore?

#175 Paul on 12.14.12 at 8:50 pm

#130 T.O. Bubble Boy on 12.14.12 at 2:14 pm
@ #118 Paul on 12.14.12 at 11:55 am
What’s the Blue Book of Real Estate? Any comments on the RIET? 8%?

http://leagueinvestment.ca/bluebook?mid=gaw&cid=content&gid=image&gclid=CI3Hyo6fmrQCFSXZQgod7nQAWw
________

Always Google before you buy… you will find important info like this:
http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/12289-League-REIT-suspends-distributions-in-June

Why use Google when we have Garth? :) Besides, there are some people that talk positively about 89-League on Google.

#176 Soylent Green is People on 12.14.12 at 8:57 pm

The G&M has this tody, but only available to subscribers:

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
Editor’s letter: On his departing visit to The Globe, Mark Carney gets personal

so darn it, i can’t comment

#177 Westernman on 12.14.12 at 9:03 pm

Form Man @ # 173
What do you know, mention the words ‘useless” and “self-entitled” and exhibit A shows up…

#178 Daisy Mae on 12.14.12 at 9:06 pm

#143 Doug in London: “It seem to me there have been a lot fewer doubters lately. What happened? Where have they all gone? Doesn’t anyone have the balls to stand up for what they really believe in anymore?”

****************

I think everyone is scared….and/or angry.

#179 AACI Home-Dog on 12.14.12 at 9:08 pm

Be sure to wash your hands, boys !

#180 Daisy Mae on 12.14.12 at 9:27 pm

#159Old Man: “#153 Form Man – Harper aka Caesar, and the rest of his clowns are clueless.”

**************

I’m still trying to digest your revelations the other day re Carney. Wow!

#181 Form Man on 12.14.12 at 9:29 pm

#177 westernman

lame try at a deflect there, westernbigot
good to see you are utterly unable to mount any sort of coherent defense of your ideological nonsense. you are indeed your own worst enemy.

#182 Smoking Man on 12.14.12 at 9:31 pm

DELETED

#183 Daisy Mae on 12.14.12 at 9:32 pm

#159 Old Man: “Garth Turner is a man with integrity, as never sold out.”

**********************

And so very, very refreshing….

#184 TurnerNation on 12.14.12 at 9:36 pm

#106Gotthardbahn

Condos ruining Y&E:

http://www.thegridto.com/life/real-estate/breaking-point/

#185 Hoof - Hearted on 12.14.12 at 9:42 pm

#171 Old Man on 12.14.12 at 7:53 pm

#168 Hoof – Hearted : leave Sanders off the page, as he moved to Clarkson in 1964 which was west of Port Credit, and his personal lawyer was Jim Allen, and he threw some wild parties that I attended. Lots of babes and free food during the early 1970′s; oh the Smoking Man would have freaked about it all, as the Colonel was a big player with the women and was a bad boy.

=============================

So….if I get your drift..you are saying when you get senile that whether it is chicken ….. or chicks….who cares about the differentiation ?……as either way….it keeps medicare costs down …….give or take some fries and biscuits(and the odd 2 for 1 coupon).

PS we need Beach Girl and/or Horny Housewife to mediate

#186 Strataman on 12.14.12 at 9:57 pm

You all are very wrong regarding Mark Carney. He is actually employed by CSIS, and his mission is to go to England transfer all the assets to Canada and pay of our National Debt. Please keep this inside info hush hush!

#187 Westernman on 12.14.12 at 10:05 pm

Form man @ # 181
As I’ve told you time and time again – I don’t answer to the likes of you and your kind – I just tell the truth and let your kind squeal like stuck pigs…

#188 Old Man on 12.14.12 at 10:14 pm

#185 Hoof – Hearted: leave the Beach Girl off the table, as she is all mine if I get lucky.

#189 bill on 12.14.12 at 10:25 pm

Western man
I see your minders have let you use the computer again….
remember you have to share it with the rest of the inmates.

#190 Westernman on 12.14.12 at 10:35 pm

Old man @ # 188
If you think being blessed with Beach Girl is “getting lucky” you need psychiatric help…

#191 Not 1st on 12.15.12 at 2:36 am

Sounds like the oil patch listened to Garth and decided to never bet against the U.S.A. So now we have land locked oil that’s only route is into the heart of fracking country via the “on again off again” Keystone Pipeline which the Americans don’t even want. It should be flowing into the port of Bejing by now but that’s going to take a miracle now. Good job oil boys.

#192 Richard and Zeus on 12.15.12 at 2:59 am

#163 “Btw, Edm isn’t a one horse town. Plenty of gov’t, Univ, hospital jobs and everything in between to support those industries.”

Those overpaid guvmint jobs……get their dough from the taxpayer. If the economy tanks….where s the support?

Guvmint werkers don’t pay no taxes. You can’t pay tax in a job funded by tax…..

#193 aaron on 12.16.12 at 2:28 pm

Reconciling Canadian-U.S. measures of household disposable income and household debt:

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/13-605-x/2012005/article/11748-eng.htm

Apples to apples comparaison:
Canada = 152%
US = 140%

#194 Roland on 12.17.12 at 12:34 am

@#16

Making people feel a bit richer with surging home values was part of the government’s re-election strategy during the time of the minority Parliament.

That’s why both monetary and fiscal policy in Canada were much too loose during the mid-2000’s.

Perhaps a majority gov’t, of whatever stripe, could have held to a tighter line. But then again, the entire developed world started gorging itself on debt since the late 90’s, and “went retard” after a certain noteworthy Arab scared them all silly in ’01. Of course, since ’08 the whole world has gone full parabolic retard, which is now conveniently redefined as “normal.”

In the future, drooling at table will be considered the very height of good manners throughout the rational secular Western world.

Under such circumstances, I don’t know if Canada could have stayed financially prudent in the mid-90’s style, no matter who formed the cabinet.