The shunning

Eleven million people live in our largest three cities. The latest housing numbers are now in for each. Sales last month in Toronto were down 17.5%. In Montreal they tanked 19%. In Vancouver, a 28.6% collapse. When was the last time this happened? Try never.

In all three markets, however, realtors say average prices are ahead of the same month a year ago, which is true. But not for long. Because in real estate, as with financial markets and seduction, momentum matters.

On Monday, while I was yakking on a live radio interview about condos in Montreal, the news came down that unit sales there had plunged 20% while the number of listings surged 23%. That compared to a 25.1% crash in GTA condo sales, and a 17.8% rise in overall listings. In Vancouver there was a remarkably similar 25% reduction in condo deals, with just 750 changing hands.

What do these numbers mean?

Trouble, says Pacifica Partners. This echoes what this blog has been bleating on about for months. Prices tell us where we have been. Sales indicate where we’re going.

“The drastic slowdown in sales volume in some Canadian markets has important impacts on future pricing,” say the Van-based real estate analysts. “This is because a slowdown in home sales can create a build in unsold housing inventory as we are seeing in various regional markets.  As with any consumer good, in order to liquidate excess inventory back to a long term average, the price of the goods must be reduced. Essentially, homes have to be put on bargain pricing to entice buying and reduce inventory.”

The real build-up in inventory will begin happening in about 90 days, as pent-up sales demand floods over local markets and co-mingles with all those scared, virginal condomaniacs already trying to escape last year’s bad decision. Look for total listings to shoot higher as vendors cross their fingers and toes, and hope there are greater fools left.

As stock watchers will also tell you, a few trades in a thin market can have a big influence on valuations. Ditto for houses. After all, what does the realtor dude do first when he comes over and you ask him how to price your home? He trots out the comparables. It matters not if properties down the street sold in a bidding war last April or a falling market last month – recent pricing determines future pricing for an entire market. Now that month-over-month values are eroding on the back of declining sales, buyers are in control. It’s exactly, as Pacifica says, what happened in the US.

“What we glean from this is that the surge in US home prices leading up to the 2006 housing crisis was on the back of increasing sales volume. Alternatively, the severe drops in US home prices occurred during periods of shrinking sales volume.  Effectively, US home prices dropped on a housing liquidity drought in which home prices for the entire market were determined by a shrinking number of transactions at lower and lower prices.  The US home sellers who refused to budge on price themselves, had their homes forcibly re-valued by the market through lower priced comparable sales.”

Right again. Sellers who don’t understand momentum and liquidity, and the night-school realtors they engage to list too high are doomed in the spring that’s coming. The meme is out there that real estate’s stuttering and prices are correcting back to historic trend lines. Listings not immediately perceived as offering realistic value will be shunned, sitting and devaluing for months while other properties are snapped up.

The pace of falling prices will be determined by how many houses hit the market, since all other big factors – like mortgage rates and lending regs – will be essentially unchanged. Without a doubt, lots of sellers will see this downward momentum and decide to wait for better conditions.

God help them.

170 comments ↓

#1 Ian on 12.10.12 at 9:23 pm

In LA it took 1.5 years for their real estate bubble to correct 45% from top to bottom. Who says it can’t happen in TO?

#2 Hoof-Hearted on 12.10.12 at 9:24 pm

Fiiirsssttttttt

(PS Garth usual contribution to your GOLD account c/o John Corzine)

#3 Rob on 12.10.12 at 9:32 pm

I guess the bubble burst starts in the condo market and works it way to townhouses and then houses. Better yet, wait til the babyboomers offload, especially the ones who used their home equity to flip condos. USA took years to bottom so better wait a few years. People just laughed when I told them about the bubble, now they think its a good time to buy. I told them they will get wiped out if they buy next year, they laughed. Why dont they get it????? Oh well!

#4 Canadian Watchdog on 12.10.12 at 9:34 pm

Good report, but analysts are still missing the fact that Teranet’s home price index doesn’t account for gains/losses in pre-market sales. It’s still a lagging indicator.

#5 Jsan on 12.10.12 at 9:38 pm

It would be one thing if this colossal bubble mess surrounding the Canadian housing market were happening during a period of more historically normal interest rates say 7 or 8% average. The fact that this is beginning to unwind at a time when we are still at heavily manipulated, historically rock bottom interest rates makes this a totally different beast in my opinion. If we were to begin to see interest rates start to crack and begin heading up, this could go beyond ugly.

#6 Retired Boomer - WI on 12.10.12 at 9:46 pm

Real Estate, is like autos…in pricing that is. While we had 2008 here in the US prices didn’t hit their nadir until late 2010 and into 2011.

Same thing with autos. Sure the new boxes, and cars were closely priced as before, but with better rebates, and deals.

Used houses, and those that had been foreclosed, and were in essentially move in condition sold close to what the new market was offering. If that home was damaged, or savaged you could get that place for about HALF -or even less- what the in-shape home sold for.

Used cars were in a similar mind-set. I was looking for a newer ride in the fall of 2010 when I happened upon a 2010 Ford Fusion Hybrid just off lease with 23,000 miles.
Snagged that nice car from a local Ford dealer for $17,900 on Halloween. Haven’t seen that good of a deal since then.

Moral of this story. Be patient if you are looking to buy a home, or even a car.

Spring will bring new and different times, and maybe even
a year or so into the future, what seemed like a bargain in the spring of 2013 might be an even better buy. Don’t be the greater Fool via impatience.

Besides, what is wrong with saving up a wee bit more cash before you buy?

#7 Boombust on 12.10.12 at 9:50 pm

“In LA it took 1.5 years for their real estate bubble to correct 45% from top to bottom…”

I get your point.

HOWEVER, who would wat to live in a dump like LA?

#8 Jsan on 12.10.12 at 9:51 pm

“It would be one thing if this colossal bubble mess surrounding the Canadian housing market were happening during a period of more historically normal interest rates say 7 or 8% average. The fact that this is beginning to unwind at a time when we are still at heavily manipulated, historically rock bottom interest rates makes this a totally different beast in my opinion. If we were to begin to see interest rates start to crack and begin heading up, this could go beyond ugly.”

——————————————————–

I might add, on top of this scenario, Canadians are carrying more personal debt than anytime in history. Levels of personal debt that place them at the top or very near to the top of the worlds most deeply in debt citizens list thanks in part to home equity loans and the “Wealth Effect”. I guess you have to ask yourself the question, how could this end anyway but really bad?

#9 Sebee on 12.10.12 at 9:53 pm

Even the IKEA Monkey decided that GTA reale estate is silly priced, along with six months of jacket wearing – stylish as it may be. It moved out to warmer better balanced regions.

#10 realtors are in a panic on 12.10.12 at 9:55 pm

Canada is nothing more then a ponzi scheme built on cheap easy credit and greaterfools who are willing to lock themselves to a lifetime of death pledge (mortgage) . It’s going to be a Nasty crash realtors , a Nasty crash!

#11 C on 12.10.12 at 9:55 pm

They say in stock markets the top is in when the shoe shine boy tells you what stocks he’s buying. Didn’t we pass that point about 6 years ago in the Canadian housing market when we had hairdressers, bartenders, waitresses flipping properties like it was nothing? From 2009-2012 that speculative behaviour was amplified. This market downturn has the potential to make the ’89 housing crash look like a dress rehersal.

Smoking Man will likely reply rates will decline and the GTA market will go up in the spring blah blah blah. I say what about Japan? Their rates have declined for over 20 years and they are still in a deflationary funk. I guess there’s only so much land in the GTA unlike Tokyo???

#12 DJB on 12.10.12 at 10:02 pm

No wonder November was Financial Literacy Month, people really have no clue when it comes to markets, assets, liability and debt.

The first people in line for lessons should be the so called R/E experts.

#13 Suede on 12.10.12 at 10:04 pm

Chart D1 on the Pacifica Partners page absolutely tells it like it is.

Boomers are the masters, the young (under 41 according to the chart) are the consumable students.

Not a pretty demographic shift.

#14 JSS on 12.10.12 at 10:07 pm

“The Shunning”.

Awesome movie starring Jack Nicholson!
Kubrick film

#15 Mississauga on 12.10.12 at 10:07 pm

I can’t wait 1.5 years. I want to buy cheap now. How can I force a collapse in the GTA, in the spring?

#16 ChickenLittle on 12.10.12 at 10:08 pm

I live in Mississauga. The completely renovated (my contractor husband was not impressed with the quality of the kitchen) house on the corner sat for 3 or 4 months and went from $860k to $795k.
Now my landlady is trying to sell, and she wants $800k for her “original conditon” home. This house has been on the market for almost 2 months and not a bite. NOT ONE.
I wonder if the recent murder behind us will help or hinder the sales process….
Anyways, every weekend in this area (which is actually a very nice one), there are soooooo many open house signs on every corner it isn’t funny. It’s almost as if they know what is coming.
Last year we went to see a town house (just for fun), and the listing agent told us we couldn’t place an offer until Tuesday. that’s when my husband told him that he would give him $100k instead of the $380k they were asking. It had an Ikea kitchen, the back of a strip mall for your backyard (complete with dumpsters), and a bunch of dirty kids meandering through everyones backyard. MIND YOU, it had stainless and granite…but then again so does everyone else, so whats the big draw? I’d love to go back there and see what they are going for now…
Anyways, I am looking forward to going open housing again and lowballing the agents just for fun, because it makes me happy. :)

#17 TRT on 12.10.12 at 10:24 pm

The graph at the bottom is missing last December stats. Never seen a 11 month graph. Shouldn’t it be a 12 month chart? But that missing bar would be higher…negates the impact we want ;)

The chart is 2012. — Garth

#18 ChickenLittle on 12.10.12 at 10:26 pm

This is not creativity, this is bribery… SO stupid!

http://www.salary.com/the-second-shoe-interview/

#19 Hoof-Hearted on 12.10.12 at 10:27 pm

The real build-up in inventory will begin happening in about 90 days, as pent-up sales demand floods over local markets and co-mingles with all those scared, virginal condomaniacs already trying to escape last year’s bad decision. Look for total listings to shoot higher as vendors cross their fingers and toes, and hope there are greater fools left.

Garth quote

===================================

I agree….

There has to be a shadow inventory of “scared SH*TLESS” owner wannabees whose last gasp respite is the Spring 2013 market.

#20 Mark W on 12.10.12 at 10:27 pm

Yea, but whatta about Winnipeg?

If Canada is in a real estate bubble The Peg is a lead Zeppelin … and you can sing to that.

#21 Dr. WAYNE on 12.10.12 at 10:32 pm

#2 Hoof-Hearted on 12.10.12 at 9:24 pm

Fiiirsssttttttt

===================

I guess there is no real cure for persistent a$$hole-ism … must be in the genes …

#22 Smoking Man on 12.10.12 at 10:32 pm

The chart is typical of every year spring Hi fall low.

But you are right more supply will me softer prices, but that ain’t gonna happen. The great Yoda master of this universe said to me Google trends flu. wow you should see the chart around the time when all the hype was pushed by msm. The real estate industry feeds msm.

They will turn it at will. TRACK6ERS ARE EASY……

#23 shane on 12.10.12 at 10:37 pm

chickenlittle love your post…i’m with you on that, but in the Markham area. start low balling the HAM.

#24 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 12.10.12 at 10:39 pm

I listed in Oct. 2012 in Burnaby, saw 25 comparable listings. Anything over 800k sat and sat and sat.
Listed for 798k.
No stampede but steaedy flow of Greater Fools
No offers so reduced the price by 20k and voila! Sold ! To a Greater Fool !

now i’m renting in the same neighbourhood. Ran into several old neighbors. Some think I’m crazy, some plan on listing in the Spring “when prices are better”.

Spring in Burnaby…… Blood red……..

#25 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 12.10.12 at 10:42 pm

@#21 Dr Wayne
These “Firsters” have been around since the dawn of the blog. Get over it.
Takes a millisecond to scroll past their inane drivel.
Your a Dr?
Take a pill.

#26 Tri State Pat on 12.10.12 at 10:46 pm

For Montreal numbers go to this link and go to the bottom of the page. Then click on “click here”.

http://www.cigm.qc.ca/en/nouvelles_comm.aspx?id=705

Politically the province has been going through a lot in the last six months . That has not helped. These numbers show an accelerating slowdown in transactions, coupled with a noticeable increase in inventory. As expected,the condo market being the usual canary in the coal mine is the first one to show signs of distress.

#27 blase on 12.10.12 at 10:54 pm

Garth, I think your quote from Pacifica should say “build up” not “build”.

#28 Shrit4brawns on 12.10.12 at 11:04 pm

Smoking Man,

I love ya Dude, but you are nuts. No way that happens.

#29 Ty on 12.10.12 at 11:07 pm

Winnipeg is not going to drop. Its different here.

Search for the winnipeg free press article where the realtor says million dollar homes arent a big deal. They sure arent in winnipeg

#30 REBear on 12.10.12 at 11:08 pm

Saw the comments yesterday on Canadian women and would tend to agree… if you’ve seen them under FCP downtown TO, head down, rushing by and texting in the busy corridors, just waiting for a collision… makes you think, wtf? Anyway, lets go to Frank for final comments…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRZpNfC-l54

#31 Nick on 12.10.12 at 11:08 pm

#7 Boombust

L.A. has the best weather on earth and some of the coolest neighborhoods in North America. One day I will have to leave to go back to Canada but trust me I don’t want to.

#32 Ian on 12.10.12 at 11:09 pm

@Boombust

All the wealthiest Cdns (and Americans) own real estate in LA (Hollywood/Bel Air/Pacific coast). Notice the similarities in their house prices (before their crash) to income as Toronto’s.

#33 totalinvestor.com on 12.10.12 at 11:09 pm

You can listen to Garth Turner on the radio show called This Week in Money – Guests: Garth Turner, Marin Katusa, John Kaiser.

http://www.totalinvestor.com

#34 Boombust on 12.10.12 at 11:17 pm

“L.A. has the best weather on earth and some of the coolest neighborhoods in North America.”

Wow.

Did you include Compton and Gardena?

#35 disconnect on 12.10.12 at 11:20 pm

Here is another thing about Teranet. Does it account for all the renos the virgins do to a house. I don’t think so. So sink a bunch of cash (aka debt) in to re-doing the house, hoping to flip it. Worked in the past. The future, maybe not so much.
Oh yeah, if he home virgin shows mean anything, allot of the renos are completely unnecessary. Oh well, I like a new kitchen at a fire sale.

#36 NFN_NLN on 12.10.12 at 11:20 pm

#11 C on 12.10.12 at 9:55 pm

They say in stock markets the top is in when the shoe shine boy tells you what stocks he’s buying. Didn’t we pass that point about 6 years ago in the Canadian housing market when we had hairdressers, bartenders, waitresses flipping properties like it was nothing?

Sept. 30, 2011… I’m sure there are older examples but I saved this one for fun:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/financial-facelift/expensive-city-worries-this-single-saver/article2187169/

#37 Led on 12.10.12 at 11:21 pm

My father bought and paid for our suburban Vancouver home within 2 years on a city worker’s wage, he paid for property taxes with one day’s pay. 2nd largest country in the world and I can’t afford a 50 year old house on a postage size lot in the suburbs. things are supposed to get better, not worse.

Can I get an Amen?

#38 Smoking Man on 12.10.12 at 11:42 pm

Damn xmass coming up, as I set here trying to figure a way to fake my dead so I don’t have to show dinner. I hate people, including family.

Stupid fake people piss me off. Ah great marry xmas post coming up on my Blog. Just in time for the season of bull shit.

God frearing stay away from my site. I taken my time with this one it has to be perfect.

#39 will on 12.10.12 at 11:43 pm

Just a short word from S’toon. Friend said CTV report the other day that S’toon City beginning in 2013 will no longer provide snow plowing for residential streets. I don’t know that they ever did, but now that it’s official, might affect RE here in the FREEZING DARKNESS. Snow plowing only if it is a bus route.

#40 ozy - Wrong, in 416 on 12.10.12 at 11:43 pm

Wrong, in 416 best hoods, there is nothign worth buying , listed for sale, I don’t care about scharborough or missisauga or richmond hill, markham (except unionville), who want’s to live there?

#41 Dr. WAYNE on 12.10.12 at 11:47 pm

#25 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 12.10.12 at 10:42 pm

@#21 Dr Wayne
These “Firsters” have been around since the dawn of the blog. Get over it.
===============================

Hey Crowded Fartz … I surely do enjoy reading Garth daily … and I appreciate the advice; however, idiocy and moronic FIRSTERS are just that, and an uncontrollable urge takes over …

“We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” -Benjamin Franklin

FIRSTERS SURE DO WORK ‘EXCEPTIONALLY’ HARD …

#42 Smoking Man on 12.10.12 at 11:49 pm

# 28 Shit4brains

You just don’t know people. I have spent a life time studying them for profit.

I love you too only cause you came up with a brilliant name. I don’t miss my xmass post.

Listing to brain damage at moment, but hope I remember theam for xmass post in morning.

#43 NoOneOfConsequence on 12.10.12 at 11:50 pm

Don’t the banks already know what is coming down the pipe in the housing market?
I mean…most homes are bought with a mortgage. I would imagine most people buying homes are pre-approved, right?
So…..if someone had access to all this pre-approval information, they could chart the number of pre-approvals in the system to get a total number people who are actively considering purchasing a home.
Take this data, then adjust by the ratio of pre-approvals that result in mortgages.
Boom…that should give you a fairly accurate projection for home sales over the next period.
Does anyone know where to get mortgage pre-approval data?

#44 Dodged-A-Bullit-in Alberta on 12.11.12 at 12:00 am

Greetings: Picked up Calgary Herald today. Main editorial headline: ” FIRM FOUNDATION, Prudent action prevents creation of housing bubble.” Here is the last sentence of the article: ” But the prudent measures taken by the federal government at least mean we will not hear that sickening sound of a popping housing bubble”. Not a word about the federal governments’ role in creating the mess in the first place. The sad thing is that most Calgarians will believe this crap.

#45 Helga on 12.11.12 at 12:05 am

#21

DELETED

#46 western observer on 12.11.12 at 12:26 am

I still say no crash in Vancouver in regards to single family homes.

Sure real estate sales are slow – it’s December!

Spring will bring a flurry of sales in single family homes -don’t forget that “Real Estate is emotional”

As soon as the price dips a bit (maybe 10-20%) and there are lots of listings – people will flock to the market.

Vancouver is like the San Francisco of Canada. Prices never dipped there more than 20% from the peak and have rebounded to almost peak values . Check Zillow if you don’t believe me.

Vancouver has the mildest climate of any major city in Canada and is the most attractive major city in Canada.

Definitely no “crash” in Vancouver in regards to single family homes

#47 prairieperson on 12.11.12 at 12:27 am

Does anyone know what is happening in Wpg? There have been a couple of mentions of Wpg but no actual information. The last I heard, prices were still going up. There’s no information on house prices outside Wpg. If I were there, I’d stop by some realtor offices and see waht MOI is compared to the past. One doesn’t expect much to be happening at this time of year. Still, if anyone has any information re Wpg, or Manitoba, in general, I’d like to see it.

#48 Mr Buyer on 12.11.12 at 12:40 am

There is the ever present myth of pent up buying demand. There is certainly pent up debt obligation being met through minimum payments immediately withdrawn as cash advances and placed as the minimum on the next card along with helocs covering monthly payments for a time. I think everbody is telling themselves bedtime stories when they say there are many buyers waiting. I submit there are ever fewer buyers that can actually buy a house without having to flip it to stay afloat (an ever decreasing likelyhood). There simply are not that many buyers around and fewer still as potential buyers see down payments consumed by monthly expenses as this collapse proceeds. It might be time to start thinking about the increasing likelihood of having the carry that mortgage for a long long time. What did the realtor say a year or so back, people can get second or third jobs to carry their mortgages. Working can be thought of a social activity can it not? In any event I have a feeling that many people are going to be enjoying their homes for decades to come. There is no pent up buying demand and what there is will actually be degraded going forward.

#49 GTARealEstateCorner on 12.11.12 at 12:44 am

To all the readers, new and old, I urge you on one thing. Please be nice and accepting of Smoking Man. He’s probably a good guy, but has never had a lucky break in his life. It’s kind of sad, but he has delusions of grandeur. This is a sign of impaired mental faculty. Please, no judgement, no harassment. Live and let live.

#50 Herb on 12.11.12 at 12:52 am

To complete the picture, here are the numbers for Canada’s fourth largest city, Ottawa, thanks to a friendly RE agent who shall remain nameless:

Number of residential properties sold in Nov 2012: 931, compared to 1,023 in Nov 2011, a decrease of 9%. Average selling price (all units) increased 1% (to $376,349).

Interesting facts re disposition: of the 6,009 non-condo properties listed, 723 were sold (12.03%). Of the unsold houses, 15.78% (948) were taken off the market, 72.1% (4,338) remain listed.

There were 1,847 condo units for sale, of which 208 (11.25%) were sold. Of the remaining units, 14.4% (266) were taken off the market, and 74.3% (1,343)remain listed.

Doesn’t look very different in Ottawa.

#51 Mr Buyer on 12.11.12 at 12:54 am

Another little case study from Japan. An acquaintance explained how she bought and built in Japan 35 years ago. It was just before or at the start of the bubble. She had to get a mortgage at 8.8% which is now considered to be obscene. In any event she had the house built and her and her husband had a hell of a time servicing the debt. He got a great position in a neighboring town after they had been in the house for a year and a half and they tried to sell the place. Well after the attempt at selling the place (no offers) they rented for an annual loss of around $10,000 and had to carry it for five more long years before well into the bubble they sold at a price that still did not fully retire the loan. There are huge numbers of stories like this. I wish I was making it up, but you can believe I am not. These horrendous prices in Canada have advanced the Canadian real estate bubble to a state in which many more terrible stories even worse than this will be told. The bedtime stories will burn away, such as the myth of pent up buyers and the dire situation 1 million dollar to 100k home owners are in will be impossible to deny.

#52 Mr Buyer on 12.11.12 at 12:59 am

As a home owner it will soon be time to take the long view and start figuring out a do it yourself plan to renovate the house you are in as you will likely be in it for a few decades. Next spring there will be fewer buyers than last spring and as the vast personal and corporate cash reserves are consumed faster then they are being replenished servicing horrendous levels of debt over the coming decades it will be clear how few buyers there are. Good luck with the bedtime stories.

#53 Pt Bob on 12.11.12 at 1:02 am

Sorry if posted before but these amazing US vs Canada stats and charts are worth a look Canadian Real Estate Correction Chartbook http://pacificapartners.ca/blog/2012/12/08/canadian-real-estate-correction-chartbook/

#54 Hoof-Hearted on 12.11.12 at 1:03 am

To keep the peace, I think Garth should not allow any posts till Dr Wanker places firrrzzzt .

Then he has acheived his ONE goal in life.

#55 house burden on 12.11.12 at 1:08 am

Possible Canadian bank downgrade and another bubble prediction

http://www.thetrumpet.com/article/10159.19.0.0/canadian-housing-bubble-about-to-pop

http://www.thetrumpet.com/article/3415.3925.93.0/economy/storm-proof-your-financial-house

#56 THE CELIAC HUSBAND on 12.11.12 at 1:12 am

@ #31 Nick

Agreed on L.A.

#57 coastal on 12.11.12 at 1:13 am

” Sellers who don’t understand momentum and liquidity, and the night-school realtors they engage to list too high are doomed in the spring that’s coming. ”

This is what’s so mind blowing in Victoria where the amateur hour of agents is so desperate to keep his flailing business afloat he has to compare Victoria to Croatia as a reason why V-town won’t tank. It’s this kind of bizarre thinking in the year 2012 that persists out there. You would think someone with half a brain cell and an education would keep an open mind after just witnessing THE tank job of epic proportions on our very doorstep. It only confirms to me the young and dumb plus the old and greedy will get a spring time reaming like no other. No mercy I say.

#58 Tony on 12.11.12 at 1:16 am

Re: #20 Mark W on 12.10.12 at 10:27 pm

Winnipeg will get creamed.

#59 Jeff on 12.11.12 at 1:18 am

It’s different in Quebec. Realtors says it’s because of our hot chicks and poutine.

The number of housing start dwindle all across the country except in Quebec and Prairies.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Housing+start+lull+helps+bring+national+figures+down+third+straight+month/7676508/story.html

#60 Mr Buyer on 12.11.12 at 1:18 am

Some people become good at spotting trends and have functional understandings of people (it does not matter if it is accurate or not, just being effective is enough). The problem occurs when these Oracles stop seeing their observations and assumptions as predictions and begin to see them as decrees. The machine so to speak sees itself as very effective at getting the majority of people to do what the machine wants them to do. This godlike attribute is ever so tenuous but after many years it is thought of by minions of the machine as being as real as a hand or a leg. Ideas are indeed powerful but anguish and deprivation, real or imagined can bring into focus the vaporous substance of most ideas. Spin this and spout that eventually reduces the source in the popular psyche to little more than a lawn sprinkler spouting inconsequential nonsense (much like I am doing now) as the machine is seen to be ever further from reality.

#61 Mr Buyer on 12.11.12 at 1:19 am

On a more concrete note, if I knew as a child how rife the world was with dishonesty and how predatory in nature and how bereft of ethics and simple morals I would likely have never ventured out into it. It is likely good that I believed in bedtime stories as long as I did but at what a price as an adult. That whole doing my own thing myth was a huge tax as well. It is not that there is no honesty or love or respect, there is and there is lots of it. It is just much more precious than I ever appreciated as a younger man.

#62 Interesting Times on 12.11.12 at 1:19 am

HGTV Virgins get out there and start low balling these realtards by 50 percent. Don’t waste your time going to open houses when you could just sit on the MLS and low ball these used car salespeople by email. Get out there and get your revenge. Show them that you are not as stupid as the show protrays you!

– Europe already in recession/depression, Japan and US right behind them. This will have a negative feed back loop across the global economy.

– jobs being lost everywhere and the Canadian economy is slowing down. Watch BNN and learn about the layoffs happening everyday or just read the business section it is all there.

– austerity starting already in Canada. Many in government jobs will be bye, bye.

– manufacturing jobs have moved to Asia and back to the US. Canadians can’t compete with the New America where the factory worker now makes $12.00 an hour and can buy a nice home for $100,000K. You are so screwed.

– 70% of CDN living pay cheque to pay cheque and have no savings and over 70% have no pensions

– 60% of boomers 60 years and older entering retirement in a shit load of debt. Also, a lot of these boomer fools co-signed for their kids $800,000 Mc Mansions. The banksters will wipe the floor clean with both the kids and parents after this 50% RE Crash when they both lose there homes!

– empty condos being built everywhere and will be going for 50% off soon. HGTV Virgins will be crushed!!!

– empty homes all over the MLS, can you say power of sales have started

– for lease signs everywhere in business districts and commercial areas, I guess business has moved out of Canada

– Canadians are 163 percent in debt! More than the US, Ireland, and UK when they had there RE Crash.

– Over 8 months of dropping RE sales. Next thing to drop will be prices by 50%.

– over 70% of mortgages in Canada are 5% or 0 down CHMC mortgages. Can you say high risk and backed by the taxpayer. When this baby blows up kiss your social services good bye. This is what the in action plan looks like. We supported our banks with free taxpayer dollars to give out loans to people with no money creating a RE ponzi scheme 10 times bigger than the US, Spain, Ireland etc.

– And remember a home is only worth what a buyer will pay.

– the realtards, brokers, banks and builders are in full out panic

The 50% crash is here my virgins. Get out there and start low balling as the time is now for your revenge. Don’t sign up for bank slavery like the other 70% of the virgins in Canada. They are screwed for life now as they were sold the Koolaid by the RE industry!

Garth thank you also for the great public service you are providing for all the HGTV Virgins out here!

#63 edmontonian on 12.11.12 at 1:40 am

Talking to a friend who is a realtor here in Alberta, he says the average price in Alberta is looking great on paper, because we are having many properties appraised in 2007 at the 1 million + range finally selling now that they’ve been reduced to the $750-$800,000 range. It’s interesting to see how level entry homes will eventually be hit if mansions in the most sought after area are contracting in price. We should be able to see this in the avrg. price per sq. foot soon on the stats if the realtors don’t put a ‘spin” on this. lol

#64 Kilby on 12.11.12 at 1:59 am

Spring will bring a flurry of sales in single family homes -don’t forget that “Real Estate is emotional”

As soon as the price dips a bit (maybe 10-20%) and there are lots of listings – people will flock to the market.
——————————————————————–
Where is the money coming from? The fundamentals aren’t right for a “hot” spring market. Those of us with cash aren’t wanting to “catch the falling knife” and those without money are thinking twice about committing three or four thousand a month, even if they could qualify with the new regulations.

#65 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.11.12 at 2:05 am

-
“Eleven million people live in our largest three cities. God help them.” — From what I understand, there are capitals in the world with bigger populations — Tokyo, Beijing and Mexico City — and they don’t seem to be in the midst of a RE frenzy.

If true, it proves that Cdns. (those here excepted) have an entitlement sword hanging over their necks. Well, let them have it. They have earned the right to be deeply indebted for the rest of their lives, so good luck to them.
*
2:10 clip Until you have seen it, you don’t know what handling a forklift is like.
*
Japan and UK Recession or depression? Bad News behind Good News about jobs; EZone Telegraph calls it a depression; Dwindling Resources The rich have enough to gorge on, we fight for the left overs; Energy costs up in UK; Google uses Bermuda to avoid taxes, and they are not the only ones; Imperial Oil plans LNG exports from left coast (that’s us), but slowing Home Construction drags Cdn. economy; Investing with Santa 101; Laid off and no pension What to do; Freeloaders There’s too many of them who don’t know what hard work and self-discipline is; Underwater Cities Stuff of the future? Last Tango in Argentina? Poor or Broke?

Peak Oil or Peak Energy? China Up, West Down; Currency Wars heating up; Sandy + Drought Costing taxpayers plenty; Big Investors buying RE; Fracking Robbing OPEC? Brazil Nicely independent; Canning the F-35; Ounion Double talk to make himself look good? Brit. Banks Improving profits while cutting jobs; UK shock from fiscal cliff? The UK is already in a depression; A clearer reason for black boxes in cars (only three paras. long); Obomba Saving chickens while knocking off humans; Silver Surplus? Chart in; TPTB and austerity Millions in poverty, not them; Forced Labor?
*
Dubai Nice shot of lightning striking the world’s tallest tower; Growing Tongue Rare condition; Political Infighting Republicans in the US, Tories in UK — all squabbling; Different Link End of the Smartphone; Free ObombaCare Ex-con is re-arrested; Nuke waste found in Arctic by Russia; Declining Power which is why More Drones will replace soldiers; Great ‘Quake Locations Avoid them by living on Pluto; Hungry Like A Wolf Too late, she’s gone now.

#66 Joe on 12.11.12 at 2:26 am

I suggest a few fans pitch in and give Smoking Mad spelling lessons for Christmas. I’m sure that the butchering of the english language has nothing to do with rebellion.

#67 jan on 12.11.12 at 3:20 am

My father bought and paid for our suburban Vancouver home within 2 years on a city worker’s wage, he paid for property taxes with one day’s pay. 2nd largest country in the world and I can’t afford a 50 year old house on a postage size lot in the suburbs. things are supposed to get better, not worse.

Can I get an Amen?

AMEN BROTHER…JAN

#68 EinsatzgruppenVancouver on 12.11.12 at 3:38 am

@Chickenlittle #16:

Heh, open houses in Mississauga? You should see my neighborhood, 57th ave west of cambie in vancouver. I’ve been jogging since we moved into a rental here in 2010, watching single story, 1500 sq ft 1 story “cake box” houses get torn down and replaced with max allowable by local ordinance mcmansions.

And sit on the market… and sit… and sit… and sit… unsold…

You wanna see the archtype of this, fire up google street view for oak and 57th st, vancouver. Look at the south-west corner house.

Pictures don’t do it justice, but it’s the kind of place that is so garish, so gawdy, a saudi prince would look at it and say “ooh, man, that’s tacky and gawdy…”

Also, every morning I go past it around 7 am, there’s a truck with a builder’s logo on it parked out front, so either they get started work really, really, early, or the builder is living in it to get that primary residence capital gains scam going for him. Like any pyramid scheme, it works awesome, that is, up until it doesn’t work anymore, and you get left holding the bag.

#69 TRT on 12.11.12 at 5:12 am

Title reminds me of The Shining. Great movie!

Holiday season coming…some of you should try Forty Creek Double Barrel Reserve. Great!! Sounds like one for you Garth!

#70 Richard and Zeus on 12.11.12 at 5:44 am

#31 Nick I agree….

I love LA. Sunny, warm, friendly….unlike moldcouver…. I mean coldcouver….sorry I meant raincouver. Best place to live? Give me a break….the guy saying that has a secrect Caymen account funded by Chinese money.

#71 Buy? Curious? on 12.11.12 at 6:00 am

Hey Garth! Did you know that the Italian Prime Minister, who was APPOINTED to the position after it was revealed that the previous one was having one too many bunga bunga parties, resigned yesterday? I know that it won’t have a great significance here in Cana-duh seeing how the only Italians we care about are the ones on Jersey Shore (Wazzup Sitch!) but you seeing a huge turnover of leadership at the highest level, whether voluntary or not. Now I, personally, can’t do anything about that but take care of what I have. And Garth is telling you how it is. You shouldn’t disregard his advice. He’s like a Laura Secord or Julian Assage of wealth! Or you’re going to be knocked down a few pegs down the totem pole.

For my next video, I’m doing a Mash-up of Garth Turner and movie characters that gave dire warnings/inspirational speeches, like Gandalf or Morphieus. Then over the holidays, I’ll be making a puppet version of Garth commenting on others comments. I’ve been watching alot of Garth Turner videos because I want to get the voice right but you certain have dominated interviews like Bruce Lee vs an army of guards without a single gun. All I’m waiting for shipment of Ken Dolls’ accessories and wardrobe to get started. I’ll call it Fake Garth Turner or something. I’ll post the links on Smoking Man’s blog after his epic blog entry in time for Christmas. “For me? Noooo, You shouldn’t have.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=te6qG4yn-Ps

#72 Freedom First on 12.11.12 at 7:06 am

I love this blog. Brings out the sane thoughts/thinking/ideas of Garth and certain sane blog dawgs.(Watch out for the insane blog dawgs, they trash sane thinking and are here to hurt you). I don’t argue with insane ideas in my own mind, so won’t argue with the insanity of others. So I give Garth full kudo’s for replying to the insane thinking of others, in the spirit of only trying to save them from the consequences of insane behavior which will follow insane thinking.

I will give you a clue to who the sane thinkers are in Canada, the U.S. , and Europe, etc.

Sane thinkers are the people who, regardless of income: Never have all of their net worth in 1 asset. Do not care what the interest rate is for a mortgage, LOC, Heloc, or any credit card, follow sound financial principles and don’t care what their co-workers or MIL think. Never pay CMHC insurance. Never buy a car, or any depreciating asset on credit. Always have an independent home inspection/mechanic for car purchase. Have a fee based financial adviser, and if have the self knowledge, invest, and look after all financial affairs yourself(This is best), Never buys individual stocks, except after achieving a minimum 7 figure net worth. Diversifies, owns R.E.I.T.’s, Dividend paying ETF’s, Preferred shares (ETF preferably) is balanced, well researched, well diversified, and in different sectors and not encroaching on each others territory. Right % of fixed income holdings/see Garth’s blog. Personal RE if in right portfolio % $$ for your age. PM’s are ok. but only a small %, and never buy close to record prices, ever. This is only a start, but will give someone a good start. This works for all incomes, no exception. Oh, one last one, suck it up, kill your EGO, and do what is smart, adjust your wants, or doing what you want will destroy you……see below

Clue to Insane thinkers………almost all of the people in the U.S. and Europe who learned the truths of the sane thinkers the hard way……….. Now Bankrupt.

#73 Freedom First on 12.11.12 at 7:40 am

#61 Mr. Buyer

Great post. I live there. For me, I am glad I still live there, and I feel great the world has not changed me, or made me bitter, and I too look for like minded people. And do not make myself vulnerable to the others, just simply avoid/disregard them. I look for what I call “The Angels”. Garth is one, and has excellent boundaries a dealing with the people who are not there. We are impenetrable.

#74 TurnerNation on 12.11.12 at 9:06 am

The main difference between Old Man and Smoking Man?
One has binders full of women, the other has women with blinders.

#75 Boomers Uber Alles - IKEA Monkey on 12.11.12 at 9:25 am

#16 ChickenLitttle

Ha ha! Same here! Being Garth-er for over year now i was doing the same to RE Agents few times in the past.
In the beginning they fed me feces and showed me the doors..

But recently they nicely asked me to submit offer if i wish..
Again i did that for very similar property being in funny location but asking insane price… Fishing For Fools

P.S.
Did Smoking Man got cancer already?
Will he seize to pollute this forum?

#76 live within your means on 12.11.12 at 9:41 am

Just read some of the comments on Garth’s blog yesterday. We made out wills many years ago, but still haven’t updated them (definitely on our To Do List over the holidays). Will likely go with our law firm as Executors rather than 2 family members. From what I read on line this is the best option. Believe the max they can charge is 5% where we live. We do not have children. For many reasons, I have decided to only leave my share to 2 family members. Some don’t need it & others will blow it. On DH’s side, the same situation exists.

Tho DH has said, that if I died before him – likely event – he’d ensure that my beneficiaries would receive some inheritance. This may seem like a naieve question, but is there any way that I could ensure (via my will) that he’d have to abide by his promise in any future will he had drawn up. Doubt it, but just thought I’d ask.

#77 fancy_pants on 12.11.12 at 10:11 am

When short term rates go UP, that is when SHTF. Until then we will see stuff s-l-o-w-l-y go down or do some sideways movement, blah blah depending on the local markets etc.

The only entertainment so far is that Carnage and co. lecture that we are not saving enough… well no $hit Sheerluck! When measly rates coupled with the inflation of core goods is negative, what incentive is there to save?

The problem is gov’ts cater to the mainstream – and the mainstream is naughty; savers are punished. It’s like lecturing to your 3 yr old not too eat too many cookies while the parents hold the open cookie jar to them. duh!

and with the US happy to devalue their dollar, rates ain’t going anywhere soon. A general decline/drop is coming/ happening but don’t hold your breathe b/c it will be a long, slow ride down.

#78 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 12.11.12 at 10:32 am

A buyer’s market

#79 Gunboat denier on 12.11.12 at 10:55 am

51 Mr B – so they built before/at start of the bubble then when they sold in the bubble they didnt have enough to repay the loan and there are huge numbers like this?

This makes no sense.

#80 Rene on 12.11.12 at 11:06 am

Seriously Garth, start DELETING Dr Wayne posts. I prefer to read “first” than the insults he throws at first posters. Who is this clown anyway?

#81 DM in C on 12.11.12 at 11:16 am

According to the RE headline writers at the Calgary Sun, there’s a land scarcity driving up prices….. cause you know, they’re not making any more land on the bald prairie. Funny, I can buy 100+ acres on PEI for less than half a 30 x 55 lot price around Calgary.

http://www.calgarysun.com/2012/12/06/land-scarcity-will-drive-up-prices

#82 IM in C on 12.11.12 at 11:22 am

#21 Dr.Wayne:
#2 Hoof-Hearted on 12.10.12 at 9:24 pm

Fiiirsssttttttt

===================

I guess there is no real cure for persistent a$$hole-ism … must be in the genes …
__________________________________________

Dr. Wayne: Since I find hoof hearted’s persistence tedious………..

#83 victoria boy on 12.11.12 at 11:27 am

#61 – Mr. Buyer

Your articulation of this realization is amazing well done. I just had to post and tell you so.

Well done. And so true, unfortunately.

#84 Looking North at the U.S.A. on 12.11.12 at 11:35 am

Garth,

If there is a place in Canada that is different it’s here in our nation’s southern most outpost of Windsor/Essex County. I’d say we’ve already experienced our correction. MPAC just delivered my second consecutive reduced value assessment.

My mortgage payments are cheaper than cheap. Even with my utility and cable bills my cost is lower than rent. What I’ve never been able to fathom is why anyone would purposely put themselves in a position of such extreme debt to income as they have.

My circumstances are enviable. I have a provincial gov’t job with a collective agreement bargained province wide. So I make the same salary in Windsor as the guy/gal that does my job in T.O. with (probably) house payments at least 5 times less. Why, in the name of whatever you find holy, would a person accept this disparity? How is a tear-down in Vancouver worth as much as a 6 bedroom tudor w/ indoor pool in my city?

#85 Old School on 12.11.12 at 11:35 am

I don’t believe the number of people whining about mortgaged homes that they now cannot afford to keep or to sell. You only have yourself to blame. I could be wrong as an “old guy” being senile and such but it sounds like part of the entitled generation that is bitching. Instant gratification on everything, Beamers, Bling, trips to the Mexican Riviera every year, the condo chalet in Quebec. Two incomes and you still are in trouble. Holy Crap people for god sakes do with less for a change. Purchase within your means. If you can afford it then you don’t deserve it yet. Try downsizing to something that doesn’t have to show your status. Eat at home, save money, drive your vehicle to the ground and not trade it in every year. Do without a few trips fro a few years. It can be done! I did it with one income, paid off my first home by eating Kraft dinner. Sold it for a profit and bought my second and third homes doubling every time. Slow and steady investing $$ at good return rates that grew every year. Never ventured into the high-risk investments as I sat down and figure out what I needed to retire comfortable and enjoy life. I am not a multi millionaire but quite well off. I own my home worth $750K and investments are good in figures that will carry me to the grave plus leave my children some substantial $$. It took time and planning. I don’t care if my home dropped 25% or more, as it is my home a place where I live. I have money in the bank to paraphrase. I hate to see all of these investors in the city crying about the impending doom but I saw it coming twenty years ago. By the way I taught my children the same routine “you can have it when you can afford it.” Never extend yourself beyond your means!
Good luck to all of the whiners out there in Toronto, this crash is coming I’ve been around more many years and this is just another cycle that’s going to clip at lot of wings.

#86 EdmontonMarket on 12.11.12 at 11:40 am

Same Trend in Edmonton for November:
M/M Y/Y
Residential Listings -27.70% -9.10%
Residential Sales -22.70% -6.60%
End of Mth Inventory -11.30% -8.00%
Total MLS Sales -21.50% -6.30%
Value of Res sales -21.20% -3.50%
Value of MLS Sales -20.50% -44.70%

-Source EREB Monthly report

Title of EREB Sales Report:
“Average Housing Prices make dramatic leap in November”

Title of Edmonton Real Estate Blog (same period):
“Average home price jumps in November as Edmontonians choose bigger digs”

And before you go there Edmonton defenders(realtors + sellers) we already know you say this is the “normal” seasonal decline for this year.

We’ll see.

#87 Hurricane Sandy on 12.11.12 at 11:41 am

I agree with many of Garth’s comment. My only feedback is the Canadian market is very resilient. That being said I know several people currently in Alberta (Edmonton and Calgary markets) trying to sell their homes and definitely a challenge to sell. One person in Edmonton had home listed since May with no serious offers. The person in Calgary a few months and no serious bites. Like anything in my opinion reality will occur and in order to sell to the “market” the homes will have to be drastically reduced. Then homes will sell. The point being where is the price where buyers/sellers agree and those transactions occur more rapidly in the marketplace.

#88 Ralph Cramdown on 12.11.12 at 11:41 am

#77 fancy_pants — The problem is gov’ts cater to the mainstream – and the mainstream is naughty; savers are punished. It’s like lecturing to your 3 yr old

It certainly DOES feel like lecturing to a three year old here sometimes. Here’s how the government “punishes” savers: Every year, it lets them save between $5,500 and $28,500 (depending on income) and either defer the taxes until the money is withdrawn in retirement or pay them upfront — either way, the income that those funds generate (interest, dividends, capital gains) compounds TAX FREE for as long as you want. If you didn’t have the cash in prior years, you can even catch up later! Even outside of those shelters, capital gains and Canadian dividends are taxed at a much lower rate than income. You can build up a big portfolio that generates substantial annual income and be taxed at Mitt Romney rates. The guy who runs this blog has been very liberal with tips on how to build a reasonably conservative portfolio that yields 5-7%.

Or you can spend all you earn, piss and moan about how saving doesn’t pay, have your last dollar taxed at 40-50%, and pay the tab for the rest of us! All together now: “Please sir, may I have another?”

#89 Ralph Cramdown on 12.11.12 at 11:54 am

#78 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate

Yep, 18 months of inventory board-wide, 15.5 in the central zone. Keep ringin’ that cowbell, DA, and maybe one of those buyers on the sidelines will take his hand out of his pocket and bid.

#90 Form Man on 12.11.12 at 11:55 am

#78 DA

Interesting that the ‘year to date’ number for Kelowna is emphasized as a distraction from the fact that November 2012 has declined from November 2011. In fact, the year to date number shows quite clearly that momentum is slowing. This confirms my position and destroys the argument put forward by yourself a few weeks ago that ‘things were picking up’.

November 2012 housing starts for Kelowna were released by CMHC yesterday ( down almost 20% from November 2011). I will continue to base my business decisions on solid data rather than realtor fairy tales.

On another note, rumour has it that there is virtually no demand for space in the new Landmark tower. Another colossal blunder by an overconfident developer ?

#91 Canuck Abroad on 12.11.12 at 12:02 pm

Hey, I would be willing to pay $950/ month for this house!

http://themashcanada.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/price-drop-4for-lease-196-grace-street.html

Listed originally for $1.549 million, now down to $1.249 million. Or you can rent it for $950/month. Why buy?

#92 Rusty Venture on 12.11.12 at 12:06 pm

Pent-up demand? I just have to look at this blog to see evidence of pent up-demand.

The only difference between blog-dogs and the average Cdn property virgin is we are willing to wait for prices to become reasonable. Patience is everything…

#93 broadway skytrain on 12.11.12 at 12:25 pm

How is a tear-down in Vancouver worth as much as a 6 bedroom tudor w/ indoor pool in my city?
——————————————————–
in 1995 i quit my awesome auto industry job, packed everything i owned into my old pontiac and headed west from windsor. if i recall RE was super cheap even then. i was lucky to buy an e van 2stry the next year for 250k. worth 1m now. why? for every person moving to, or wanting to move to windsor(great people btw, the best) the are 600 who would prefer to live in van.
our econony is booming, comparatively, there are thousands of open jobs for eng’s, it’s only slightly warmer in the winter though.
—————————–
also re dr wayne – if the childish, idiot, fools can’t resist broadcasting their daily ‘first’ stupidity them they deserve your wrath. keep it up. but be harder on them!
hearing some whine about your response to their idiocy is even funnier, like they did not know it was coming!!!

#94 Condo Guy on 12.11.12 at 12:28 pm

My question is, did I overpay for the condo I bought back in 2003 for 285K. It was my home. I sold it in 2011 for 430K. Got divorced. If I was to buy that same condo next year for say $350K, am I making a bad choice? Are we expecting things to go down to 2003 prices? Or lower? I was in Cityplace.

#95 Ty on 12.11.12 at 12:30 pm

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/million-dollar-houses-hot-sellers-in-city-182496911.html

record $1M+ house sales in the city.

hate to sound arrogant guys but it’s not going to happen here. it’s different

#96 unbalanced on 12.11.12 at 12:32 pm

To # 72 Freedom First. Thankyou for your contribution. It was a pleasure to read something with knowledge behind it instead of alot of loose cannons around here. You and Garth rock solid. I’m sorry if I missed some other great contributors here. You know who you are. To the other loose wackos . Blast off.

#97 hangfire on 12.11.12 at 12:49 pm

I flew into Vancouver last night from Dallas and I have to tell you…the first imprssesion a visitor from a real first world city recieves is that the town is a dump…a bit skeazy. The housing stock is run down…crowded and beat up. The dominance of cheapo wood and vinyl makes everything look temporary and fall -down. A trip down Vancs ‘entertainment strip’ …all three blocks of druken brawlers, dope dealers and asst scum shows this town for what it is…an overhyped bunghole…..the sunset at 2:45 was no selling point either….and they wonder why US tourism is down? The place looks….impoverished.

Is the truth behind the hype that Vancouver is truly just a dumping ground for the worlds effulent? Why else would you come here? There are zero job opportunities…there are no industry leaders..or head offices of any kind…no financial district…..only imigrants and affluent civil servants costing taxpayers an average d 4114,000 per year….according to the guy even the Conservatives love to hate…the truth is out there eh?

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/12/11/average-public-servant-costs-taxpayers-114k-a-year-pbo-reveals/

Is this why there are no businesses willing to move to Canada? Is the 80++% direct and indirect tax regime the real reason we have spiraled down to a third world bung…wheer only the affluent government workers and otheres grasping onto the tax payers shrivelled teat welcome here anymore?

On the plane from Dallas….I met the real workforce of Canada…..all professionals….1st and business class is always full on these flights….the rest full of people working in the US because there is no opportunity in Canada…..and the politically correct propaganda is not enough to make smart educated people to want t work for the government.

Arrive at the airport and you will see the make work project the government is doing to try and appease the immigrant lobbies to get the millions of immigrants employed in a countrry where the unemployment rate is above 8%. Fly into Vancouver and you’ll think you’re flying into Beijing…..the politically correct face of the public service…employting people who are otherwise not employable….thanks to this policy you will never see companies locating in Canada…only increasing taxes and increased desperation of the taxpayer……as the old song goes…..”It’s hard to ho ho ho when you’re too po po po’……I wish the truth was more palatable…but this country is a joke.

#98 futurologist on 12.11.12 at 12:54 pm

that’s great prescription for Canadian economic collapse:

Revealed: Average public servant costs taxpayers $114K a year

Federal service compensation has outpaced inflation and that of other employees — both in business and other levels of government — during the past 13 years

http://www.nationalpost.com/index.html

#99 Devore on 12.11.12 at 1:01 pm

#74 TurnerNation

The main difference between Old Man and Smoking Man? One has binders full of women, the other has women with blinders.

It’s ok to say “women with binders”, although that is not the attire of choice for today’s woman, I do believe that’s the point.

And I wasn’t aware there was a difference between the two?

#100 Kilby on 12.11.12 at 1:04 pm

46 western observer on 12.11.12 at 12:26 am
I still say no crash in Vancouver in regards to single family homes.

Sure real estate sales are slow – it’s December!
———————————————————————-

Vancouver East and West. Completed sales.

December 2010 563 sales.

December 2011 521 sales.

December 2012, first 11 days, 149 sales.

Considering the Christmas season over the next couple of weeks this could well be the worst December on record. Sure, December is slow but never this slow!

#101 Devore on 12.11.12 at 1:10 pm

#90 Form Man

Interesting that the ‘year to date’ number for Kelowna is emphasized as a distraction from the fact that November 2012 has declined from November 2011. In fact, the year to date number shows quite clearly that momentum is slowing.

Interesting? Par for the course I would say. November is typically better than January, the slowest month of the year (either that or December is), so saying Nov sales are up year-to-date but still down year-over-year just means Jan 2011 was a brutal month with many realtors hitting the food bank (stocked by donations from Alberta) and second part time jobs (but not our DA, he’s the best!)

So, buyer’s market hmm, how many years running now? Thanks for the update DA!

#102 Dorothy on 12.11.12 at 1:11 pm

“When was the last time this happened? Try never.”

While it’s perfectly true that RE prices have softened a bit, it’s a bit of a stretch to say that its NEVER happened before! I can remember a time in the 80’s when folk couldn’t GIVE their houses away, and some transactions took place in return for only $1 and the assignment of the mortgage.

RE booms and busts have been part of our history for as long as I can remember.

The ‘never’ obviously refers to simultaneous 20% monthly declines in Canada’s three major housing markets. — Garth

#103 Ralph Cramdown on 12.11.12 at 1:22 pm

#98 futurologist — Revealed: Average public servant costs taxpayers $114K a year

And? They make up 2.1% of Canada’s total workforce and, given the amount of money they oversee, I’d rather that they be well paid and competent. High compensation doesn’t guarantee high performance of course, but low compensation guarantees underperformance.

#104 Ralph Cramdown on 12.11.12 at 1:55 pm

#101 Devore — so saying Nov sales are up year-to-date but still down year-over-year just means Jan 2011 was a brutal month

No! “Year to date” means total sales Jan thru Nov, a totally useless stat unless you’re a realtor comparing last year’s YTD paycheque to this year’s and wondering whether it’s the market, or just you. Ditto with YTD average prices, a stat which is even more useless to anyone but a used house salesman. But if you’re the local board “economist,” it’s nice to be able to pick from so many iffy stats when you’re writing your monthly press release.

…and it was BLINDERS.

#105 Form Man on 12.11.12 at 1:55 pm

#103 Ralph Cramdown

Well said.

#106 Victor V on 12.11.12 at 1:58 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/us-housing-climbs-as-canada-loses-altitude/article6189370/

Moreover, “high and rising home prices combined with consecutive rounds of tightening in mortgage insurance rules in recent years have contributed to a deterioration in housing affordability, most notably for first-time buyers.” And anecdotal reports point to a lower level of interest from foreign buyers or investors.

All told, Ms. Warren expects housing demand to remain on the softer side for now, as households become more cautious about adding to their already high debt loads. “This could put some further downward pressure on sale volumes as well as prices, especially in markets that have already shifted into buyers’ territory (eg. Vancouver) or in certain market segments that are potentially oversupplied (eg. condominiums in Toronto),” she wrote. The pace of home construction activity is also likely to moderate over the next year.

================================

Goodbye HAM?

#107 dontcallmeshirley on 12.11.12 at 2:01 pm

@ #103 Ralph Cramdown,

In 2011, total public service headcount was over 3.6 million, total related salaries $194 billion.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/govt62a-eng.htm

Not clear if this includes the super productive ORNGE :)

#108 Dr. WAYNE on 12.11.12 at 2:07 pm

#80 Rene on 12.11.12 at 11:06 am

Seriously Garth, start DELETING Dr Wayne posts. I prefer to read “first” …
=============================
OK … let’s make a deal … you say you ‘prefer to read “first”, than my comments. Well, here’s a brainwave for you, now try and hold on to this concept as complicated and intricate as it may be, ‘don’t read my posts’.

As far as who I am … I’m one of the many ‘clowns’ on this blog, so don’t get all upity and puritanical … ‘Just Walk Away Rene’ …

#109 cramar on 12.11.12 at 2:08 pm

#84 Looking North at the U.S.A. on 12.11.12 at 11:35 am

If there is a place in Canada that is different it’s here in our nation’s southern most outpost of Windsor/Essex County.

——————–

I keep wondering when those of retirement age in the GTA or in the Prairies will clue in and look at this area. There are real nice bungalows at well under $200k. Invest the difference. Haven’t regretted selling my K-W house and moving to Leamington. Found two other neighbours here within a block that also moved from K-W.

The coldest (officially) it has gotten this Dec. overnight is -3.6. and the sun is out this week! Compared to Regina where my son lives it is regularly in the minus 20s at night and he says they’ve gotten two major snow falls already. And Winnipeg??? Here it is nice to walk to the beach in Dec and enjoy the serenity.

#110 dontcallmeshirley on 12.11.12 at 2:25 pm

@ #103 Ralph Cramdown,

This nugget is interesting too. Canada is quite high. It’s nice to be first in something?

public service / population:

US – 22M / 311.6M = 7.1%

Canada – 3.6M / 34.5M = 10.4%

Germany – 4.6M / 81.7M = 5.6%

Greece – 0.7M / 11.3M = 6.2%

#111 Triplenet on 12.11.12 at 2:33 pm

#16 chickenlittle

What I like to do on weekends is to get contractors to come out and give me free repair and maintenance estimates on my strip malls. As a result I have an excellent asset maintenance track and my expense allocation is managed brilliantly.
Of course I get the contractors out on the weekends, I’m never there, I don’t retain them, I just read their reports – you know, just for fun!

#112 Derek R on 12.11.12 at 2:33 pm

#98 futurologist on 12.11.12 at 12:54 pm wrote:
Revealed: Average public servant costs taxpayers $114K a year

Excellent! So that means that Canadian businesses can sell them $114K a year of goods and services. Good news indeed!

#113 Old Man on 12.11.12 at 2:33 pm

#97 hangfire – thanks for the updates on all the good news in Canada; now it is time to come clean, as just why would you be taking a trip through the so-called entertainment district? I bet my bottom dollar you parked the car to walk the streets for a meal and to enjoy some entertainment.

#114 John Prine on 12.11.12 at 2:44 pm

@ #103 Ralph Cramdown,

This nugget is interesting too. Canada is quite high. It’s nice to be first in something?

public service / population:

US – 22M / 311.6M = 7.1%

Canada – 3.6M / 34.5M = 10.4%

Germany – 4.6M / 81.7M = 5.6%

Greece – 0.7M / 11.3M = 6.2%
—————————————————————–
The larger an area is the more distance from everything, we need to maintain roads, schools, hospitals in the second largest country in the world, area wise. Some would like Kevin O’Leary types to take over all the public services we enjoy in Canada. In Germany and Greece every service is a days drive away, easier to have a more centralized public service.

#115 1DRS on 12.11.12 at 2:44 pm

#97 hangfire. HI Truthhammer. Nice to hear from you. I am always glad to get the scoop on how you’re taxed into the poor house to support me. It shouldn’t be long before you go bankrupt and the rest of us will have to support you. By the way, most of the run up in cost has been on the CpC’s watch. Isn’t it amazing how the “fiscally responsible” conservatives have overextended the finances of this country while claiming to do the opposite ? If you missed that, maybe you noticed that they are responsible for the housing bubble ? No, well I guess you didn’t read it in the N.P. so it can’t be true. If you want lower paid civil servants move to China, just be prepared to bribe your way in and out of every government contact.

#116 horseshoes on 12.11.12 at 2:51 pm

#21 Dr. Wayne

Coming onto the same site day after day, saying the same thing, and adding nothing to the narrative? Wow, that IS annoying…

Doctor, heal thyself.

#117 bill on 12.11.12 at 2:55 pm

Vlad re:
”Until you have seen it, you don’t know what handling a forklift is like.”
a master forklift operator for sure.

#118 Toronto_CA on 12.11.12 at 2:57 pm

Public sector wages/benefits have been outpacing private sector for a good while in this country while the country’s federal, provincial, and municipal governments wrack up record debts.

It can’t and shouldn’t last. But as someone above posted, it’s not the brainy skilled professionals that are being overpaid in the public sector, they get underpaid.

It’s the people with little skills or value that are vastly overpaid compared to their private sector counterparts. Remeber those Tim Horton’s employees that were at a hospital that made $25/hour because it was a public union gig versus a regular Tim Horton’s worker making minimum wage for the SAME job? And a more cynical person might compare security guards in the private sector to cops, or baby sitters to teachers, and make the same comparisons.

But I know many CAs who would not go work for the CRA because the wages are low compared to say, being a Director of Finance for a private insurance company. Not many public sector janitors would quit to go work at the same private insurance company, however.

But in a way, it’s good for us to have lower skilled workers have a place where they can get good wages. I do believe that the 1% v 99% thing has some merit, I just wish that it wasn’t so screwed up that traffic cops make more money than skilled engineers (in some cases like Ontario, that seems to be true). Sorry if I’ve offended anyone with my thoughts here.

#119 bill on 12.11.12 at 3:05 pm

#78 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 12.11.12 at 10:32 am
after promising to leave [one hoped forever] look who is back.
your word is your bond eh?
the simplest of actions and he cocks it up.
what is this your third time you said you would leave?
what a surprise that you havent….

#120 Linda Pearson on 12.11.12 at 3:21 pm

#76live within your means on 12.11.12 at 9:41 am

Tho DH has said, that if I died before him – likely event – he’d ensure that my beneficiaries would receive some inheritance.
————————————————–

Provincial differences may apply (I’m Ontarian and you are a Maritimer I believe) but why can’t you make those bequests to whomever in your own will? Surely you don’t have to rely on your spouse to follow your wishes in his own will. Simply tell your attorney to draw up your will in such a way that those you wish to leave something to are looked after first and then the residue of your estate will pass to your husband.

#121 Old Man on 12.11.12 at 3:22 pm

I took a high position in Ottawa at the Department of Finance many years ago with the big salary; benefits; perks; and flex hours; not to mention being forced into 2 hour lunches, as one cannot work too hard, and get with the agenda with sick days, so book off during the year for a long weekend.

The problem with working for government was not for me as resigned after two years, and threw it all away, as there was no freedom of speech. Here is how it works in a committee meeting involving $millions, as the director makes all the decisions, and nobody dares to challenge him even if he is wrong – screw that bs, as had a conscience, and this game was not for me.

#122 Ralph Cramdown on 12.11.12 at 3:26 pm

#107 dontcallmeshirley
The cited article referred to the Federal civil service. And if you think those European public sector numbers are correct, GET OFF THE CRACK!

So two Chicago school economists are walking down the sidewalk, and they spot a $100 bill. “Are you going to pick that up?” asks one. “Nope. The markets are efficient, so if that was a REAL $100 bill, somebody would have picked it up already.” They both keep walking.

Along come a couple of savers, and they spot the bill. “Are you going to pick that up?” asks one. “Nope. The government punishes savers. Mo’ money, mo’ problems, and I’ve got enough problems.” They both keep walking.

Next up are a couple of Modern Monetary Theorists. “Are you going to pick that up?” asks the junior of the two. The other recoils, horrified. “But that would be STEALING from the government!”

Then, around the corner come five hundred civil servants, on their lunch break. None of them stop to pick up the bill, because they make so much money that it’s not worth stooping for.

Along comes a real estate agent. He sees the bill and starts hollering what a good deal it is, and if somebody doesn’t act fast, it’ll probably be $110 by tomorrow. But everyone ignores him, and he doesn’t pick it up himself because he’s already mortgaged to the hilt and can’t figure out how he’d finance it.

And then I happen along, and I pick up the $100 bill.

#123 Condo Guy on 12.11.12 at 3:41 pm

#62Interesting Times
Who are you mad at?

#124 Adam on 12.11.12 at 3:44 pm

Yes, there will be a crash, but no, it won’t even come close to the size of the US crash and the reason is that there was another factor at play in the US crash: credit dried up because the big banks had lost so much money on mortgages/bad derivatives.

Credit won’t dry up in Canada because the level of bad mortgages won’t be as bad as it was in the US.

25%? Probably not….10-15% more like it, and then stable (that is, negative when you factor in inflation) for the next ten years.

#125 Julia on 12.11.12 at 3:44 pm

Mark Carney going to be connected to this scandal?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/11/libor-manipulation-scandal_n_2276242.html?utm_hp_ref=daily-brief?utm_source=DailyBrief&utm_campaign=121112&utm_medium=email&utm_content=NewsEntry&utm_term=Daily%20Brief

#126 Dr. WAYNE on 12.11.12 at 3:45 pm

#116 horseshoes on 12.11.12 at 2:51 pm

#21 Dr. Wayne

Coming onto the same site day after day, saying the same thing, and adding nothing to the narrative? Wow, that IS annoying…

======================

TOUGH … don’t read’em … can’t you figure that out all by your self … ??

#127 Looking North at the U.S.A. on 12.11.12 at 3:47 pm

Everybody jump on the public sector workers :-)

I’m thick skinned on the matter. I’m pretty far away from the Sunshine List just so you know. I could have stayed in the private sector and made a lot more money and had more opportunities to advance, however I went with the steady pay and regular hours this job offered me. I do project management work alongside private contractors that I know are getting paid more than me but, at the end of the job what’s waiting for them? How long ’til the next contract? Where will the next contract take them? I’ll take my steady hours and weekends off thanks.

#109 Cramar
You’ve got to love the south coast, the little towns and the wineries.

#128 jo on 12.11.12 at 3:50 pm

#61 Mr. Buyer

So well said, my partner and I feel exactly the same way.

#129 live within your means on 12.11.12 at 4:05 pm

#120 Linda Pearson on 12.11.12 at 3:21 pm
#76live within your means on 12.11.12 at 9:41 am

Tho DH has said, that if I died before him – likely event – he’d ensure that my beneficiaries would receive some inheritance.
————————————————–

Provincial differences may apply (I’m Ontarian and you are a Maritimer I believe) but why can’t you make those bequests to whomever in your own will? Surely you don’t have to rely on your spouse to follow your wishes in his own will. Simply tell your attorney to draw up your will in such a way that those you wish to leave something to are looked after first and then the residue of your estate will pass to your husband.
………………

We each have our own will, but my DH is my primary beneficiary. I want him to benefit first, but if when he dies, I’d like to ensure that what he leaves behind, part of it will go to my my side. Sorry if I did not phrase my question correctly. I thank you for your answer.

#130 DannyBoy112 on 12.11.12 at 4:10 pm

Hey Hangfire
Move out of the country, we can use one less negative ass…

#131 BPOE's BrainFart on 12.11.12 at 4:13 pm

where is the little cherub BPOE ? his blithering was amusing?
where fore art thou BPOE?
Realtor Hell? aka This market!

#132 Patiently Waiting on 12.11.12 at 4:18 pm

#90Form Man on 12.11.12 at 11:55 am
#78 DA

Interesting that the ‘year to date’ number for Kelowna is emphasized as a distraction from the fact that November 2012 has declined from November 2011. In fact, the year to date number shows quite clearly that momentum is slowing. This confirms my position and destroys the argument put forward by yourself a few weeks ago that ‘things were picking up’.

November 2012 housing starts for Kelowna were released by CMHC yesterday ( down almost 20% from November 2011). I will continue to base my business decisions on solid data rather than realtor fairy tales.

On another note, rumour has it that there is virtually no demand for space in the new Landmark tower. Another colossal blunder by an overconfident developer ?
====================================

Form Man is correct. In times of declining prices, real estate boards hide price declines by showing year over year comparisons, as month over month comparisons would clearly demonstrate the declining price trend. In times of rising prices, they do the opposite to emphasize the rising price trend.

Conversely, in times of decling sales volumes, realty boards show sales volumes as month over month, in an attempt to use the “seasonal slow down” argument to avoid comparion with year over year stats, which would remove the seasonality, and show the true state of any sales volume decline.

pw

#133 Pr on 12.11.12 at 4:19 pm

… In Vancouver, a 28.6% collapse…
I wonder what the *fake* Muir will say about that!

When buyers realize, they are, now , the new boss in town.
It will be pretty!

#134 Old Man on 12.11.12 at 4:34 pm

#125 Julia – this man has dirt under his finger nails, as know him well; of course he knew all. He was on the Board of Directors at BIS, was an attending member with the Bilderburg Group, and was a member of all important world elite committees. He sold his soul to Goldman Sachs years ago, and now leaves Canada to head up the Bank of England establishment, as was time to move on with his loving wife who will take up a temporary home with Lord Rotherwick who married her sister. The maiden name was Fox and now she is Lady Rotherwick, and in due time Mr. Carney will be knighted by the Queen of England.

#135 dontcallmeshirley on 12.11.12 at 4:40 pm

@ #122 Ralph Cramdown,

Very interesting. So RE bears / economic cynics don’t recoil at potentially (repeat – potentially) bloated public sector?

I wouldn’t have expected that to be the profile.

#136 AprilNewwest on 12.11.12 at 4:42 pm

#124 Adam – How would YOU be so sure?

#137 dontcallmeshirley on 12.11.12 at 4:44 pm

@ #118 Toronto_CA,

You must be under 40 yrs of age. In the last “bust” (circa 1991-1995) many CA firm soldiers retreated to the safety of a 2-3 yr country club gig in Revenue Canada (CRA’s old moniker).

Most common profile – recent UFE failures and also UFE passers with 2-3 yrs time on the job but bumping into a glass ceiling.

#138 jess on 12.11.12 at 4:45 pm

cayman islands
Update 12:30pm: The United Democratic Party leadership issued the following statement on Tuesday afternoon following the arrest of Premier and party leader McKeeva Bush.
http://www.compasscayman.com/
=
back taxes and the use of an offshore trust for bonus payments
=======

stashing cash
http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/12/10/1307661/google-tax-havens-world/?mobile=nc

#139 down and out on 12.11.12 at 4:48 pm

I too moved to Leamington 5 years ago ,I now know why they call it The sun parlor of Canada .The fresh produce from the green houses is another bonus.

#140 Old Man on 12.11.12 at 5:00 pm

Now when this Libor fraud first appeared involving $trillions the press approached our Mr. Carney and he went on the record that he knew nothing, but he had heard some rumours; now when the press approached him about the rumours that he had been approached to head up the Bank of England he said not true, as will not be leaving Canada; he in effect said it was just a lot of bs. Now what? I might be old but can still connect the dots with deception that is beyond the pale.

#141 Penny Henny on 12.11.12 at 5:04 pm

Two Torontonian’s head off to Alberta to find work because they hear there is money coming out of the ground. They get off the plane and are walking through the airport when they spot a twenty lying on the ground.
One guy looks at the next and says “are you going to pick that up”.
The second says “no, I don’t want to work my first day here”.

Penny Henny

#142 Old Man on 12.11.12 at 5:05 pm

#139 down and out – drive by 11 Georgia Avenue in Leamington as flipped that property in 1990 for a record price of $92,000.

#143 jess on 12.11.12 at 5:12 pm

shunning norquist?

Mickey Edwards on How Conservatives Have Lost Their Way
December 7, 2012
Former Republican Congressman Mickey Edwards, a founding father of modern conservative politics, explains how the conservative movement abandoned its principles
===============

From Capitol Crime September 29, 2004
Untangling the web of political corruption that continues even after the fall of Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff.
http://billmoyers.com/segment/bill-moyers-essay-the-truth-behind-grover-norquists-pledge/
Bill Moyers Essay: The Truth Behind Grover Norquist’s Pledge
December 7, 2012

#144 Inglorious Investor on 12.11.12 at 5:13 pm

So, thanks to Old Man for the FYI on yesterday’s Coast To Coast.

I had forgotten this, but was reminded by Cathy Fitts that she believes the US housing market may be on the rebound because of institutional investments in RE. in short, the smart money is buying the bottom.

This meshes with a couple of things:

First, it explains why the US housing market can be picking up concurrent with still weak fundamentals.

Second, a couple of weeks back I saw a report about some REIT (forget which one) is actually buying up SFH’s in the US as rental properties. Very unusual, but it aligns with what Fitts is saying. She is also expecting some kind of tax agreement in the US that will see the mass of money off-shore flow back into the Lower 48.

Does this necessarily mean US housing is in for a sustained recovery or just a short-term bounce? I don’t know. Much could depend on how much oil and gas American drillers are allowed to take out of the ground.

But remember back in 2007 when all of those sovereign wealth funds were buying up US stocks? Then they got creamed in the crash?

Well, either some of the ‘smart money’ is not as smart as they think, or the game is rigged to favour the insiders.

How much you wanna bet it’s both?

#145 cramar on 12.11.12 at 5:14 pm

Putting all your retirement eggs in only one basket, and coming out a millionaire! It’s not RE!

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/12/06/apple-stock-investing/

#146 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 12.11.12 at 5:34 pm

Wow…

#89 Ralph Cramdown on 12.11.12 at 11:54 am

#90 Form Man on 12.11.12 at 11:55 am

#101 Devore on 12.11.12 at 1:10 pm

#119 bill on 12.11.12 at 3:05 pm

and

#132 Patiently Waiting on 12.11.12 at 4:18 pm

And I didn’t even say a word. };-)

#147 Vamanos Pest on 12.11.12 at 5:52 pm

Hey Dr WAYNE,
With respect to the “firsts”, instead of calling them all A$$holes on a daily basis, let me quote the advice of a highly educated genius, in fact the only intelligent person that reads this blog:

“Tough… don’t read’em… can’t you figure that out all by your self?”

And don’t tell me “your self” should read “yourself”, this guy has three degrees which prove he’s right in all matters of everything.

#148 Ralph Cramdown on 12.11.12 at 5:52 pm

#135 dontcallmeshirley

So employment costs for federal civil servants, including the RCMP and the military, makes up 15.5% of the federal budget. As I said before, I don’t think we should skimp on salaries such that anyone with any talent is in the private sector. I find that people target civil servants because it’s easy, or maybe they just don’t realize that the big savings in government come on the program spending side (e.g. healthcare costs) and not salaries. Civil servants seem to get jerked around a lot, e.g. McGump who, after ten years of love bombing teachers, now wants to give them 0% raises. How are his budget problems their fault that they shouldn’t be given COLA?

I think the bigger public service scandals are at the municipal level, where police and firefighters in many places get very high wages beond what is necessary to attract qualified recruits, enough time off that they have second jobs, side businesses or careers, “paid duty” on their time off (in my city many officers are billed at $65/hr to perform work that could be done by an orange traffic cone, and of course it’s the sergeant who decides how this lucrative duty is dolled out), and generous overtime in their last few years of work to pad the pension payment.

#149 bill on 12.11.12 at 6:09 pm

#146 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 12.11.12 at 5:34
your last message was unclear. we are communicating via the world wide web. at present this blog can only accept messages that are input via a key board.
so what ever you didnt say we mercifully didnt hear it.
your keyboard input ,however is its usual monotonous ,whiny drek. what a surprise.
and you are still a promise breaker. how could anyone do business with you when your ‘word’ is so flexible??

#150 Old Man on 12.11.12 at 6:16 pm

#144 Inglorious Investor – I was up until 4:00 AM to hear what she had to say; omg she knows all and was smiling when she talked about the Black Budget, as have never seen her discuss such complicated issues, and my head was spinning; this babe knows it all, and she let it all go. Fitts is truly a woman with a brain, as she had all the solutions; what a great show.

#151 Sebee on 12.11.12 at 6:22 pm

Carney sounds like his goal will be higher inflation numbers and thus stimulation and low rates. No increases on the radar then from the central banks.

Telegraph:
Addressing the Chartered Financial Analyst Society in Toronto, Mr Carney said that in major slumps: “To achieve a better path for the economy over time, a central bank may need to commit credibly to maintaining highly accommodative policy even after the economy and, potentially, inflation picks up.

#152 Sebee on 12.11.12 at 6:26 pm

Or maybe not.

Telegraph again:
Mr Carney stressed that he saw inflation targeting as “flexible” and that monetary policy should “lean against” asset bubbles such as property booms even if it meant missing inflation targets. He said central banks needed to communicate clearly about why an overshoot had to be tolerated.

#153 Sebee on 12.11.12 at 6:36 pm

Sorry for the repeat post.

If Carney wants to push inflation higher by increasing rates in Canada and probably UK, then wouldn’t real assets like gold and RE maintain or increase value? Wouldn’t bonds take a beating?

Do they continue to hope austerity does the trick or will they work to inflate debt away?

#154 El Padroni on 12.11.12 at 6:36 pm

haha “lovely”

#155 DonDWest on 12.11.12 at 6:38 pm

#121 Old Man

How is that any different than the private sector? Unquestioning authority seems to be a pre-requisite in order to remain employed. . .

#156 live within your means on 12.11.12 at 7:08 pm

#143 jess on 12.11.12 at 5:12 pm
shunning norquist?

Mickey Edwards on How Conservatives Have Lost Their Way
December 7, 2012
Former Republican Congressman Mickey Edwards, a founding father of modern conservative politics, explains how the conservative movement abandoned its principles
===============

From Capitol Crime September 29, 2004
Untangling the web of political corruption that continues even after the fall of Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff.
http://billmoyers.com/segment/bill-moyers-essay-the-truth-behind-grover-norquists-pledge/
Bill Moyers Essay: The Truth Behind Grover Norquist’s Pledge
December 7, 2012
…………….

I watched that show. I’m a big fan of Bill Moyers. Unfortunately, the repugs cut money to PBS as the cons did to CBC. Unfortunately, dissenting voices and investigative reporting seldom happens in the MSM today.

#157 Form Man on 12.11.12 at 7:42 pm

seems DA has realized the hopelessness of his pointless cheerleading of a lost cause, rendering him speechless………( or in this case, keyboardless…)

maybe in this case ‘less’ is more

#158 Dr. WAYNE on 12.11.12 at 7:44 pm

#147 Vamanos Pest on 12.11.12 at 5:52 pm

Thanks for the compliment. And … it’s pretty difficult to scroll past ONE WORD and not read it …

OK … OK … so I made a mistake … sue me.

#159 Where's The Money Guido? on 12.11.12 at 7:52 pm

Here’s a list list of reading anyone who’s considering buying anything in the Vancouver BC area (or anywhere in Canada ). A real eye opener……

http://www.condoadvisory.com/developer.php?item_id=5158

http://www.networkofcondos.com/

http://blog.myleakycondo.com/index.php?blogId=1060

An absolute criminal cabal of developers who have infiltrated gov’t and made off with wheelbarrows full of home buyers’ and taxpayers’ cash with no consequences and are doing it to this day. This is where former BC premier Guido Scambull came from and allowed the leaky condo when he was mayor of Vancouver.
Anyone who has bought a condo in the last 20+ years in the Vancouver area already knows they’re hooped !!!!
From doubling of condo fees in the first 2 years (snuck in by the developer in the fine print at changeover. The developer IS the Strata) to not fixing ANY deficiencies, the condo-pre-sale buyer has no recourse but court. But just look at ALL the LAWSUITS that go languishing in court (backed by the criminal cabal of our ‘LEGAL’ system)

#160 house burden on 12.11.12 at 8:03 pm

Don’t worry Canada is going have a soft landing.

http://www.canada.com/Canada+housing+market+soft+landing+Scotiabank/7682690/story.html

But same with Japan and the US. You can say it soft.
Japan has been soft landing for 2 decades, US has been soft landing for 6 years.

One thing is certain, you can’t give any credibility to any of these BIAS Financial analyst. After all just a few months ago they were saying no bubble, continue housing prices will rise and yaddy ya ya.

Remember when US was going into the 2007 crisis, everyone was saying no bubble, just a blip, as the down turn continued they thought it was just a blip and will be short lived. Fast forward 2012. Again they say housing is recovering, I can see it flatlining but don’t see a substainable recovery yet!!

With the Fiscal Cliff looming (the US Visa bill is due but they don’t have the cash to pay for it so they need more credit to pay for the existing minimum payment) and government unwilling to tackle the real problem (DEBT) . I can’t see the US out of troubled waters just yet.

What can be even worst is Japan’s number, they are growing negatively, and to make matters worst. They are now in a tug a war with china. Sending their debt up to a 100 billion dollars a year and rising.

#161 Hoof - Hearted on 12.11.12 at 8:53 pm

#147 Vamanos Pest on 12.11.12 at 5:52 pm

Hey Dr WAYNE,
With respect to the “firsts”, instead of calling them all A$$holes on a daily basis, let me quote the advice of a highly educated genius, in fact the only intelligent person that reads this blog:

“Tough… don’t read’em… can’t you figure that out all by your self?”

And don’t tell me “your self” should read “yourself”, this guy has three degrees which prove he’s right in all matters of everything.

================================

Yeah , a$$hole…

#162 Hoof - Hearted on 12.11.12 at 9:12 pm

#118 Toronto_CA on 12.11.12 at 2:57 pm

QUOTE:
But in a way, it’s good for us to have lower skilled workers have a place where they can get good wages. I do believe that the 1% v 99% thing has some merit, I just wish that it wasn’t so screwed up that traffic cops make more money than skilled engineers (in some cases like Ontario, that seems to be true). Sorry if I’ve offended anyone with my thoughts here.

===================================

We simply cannot afford this Public Sector gravy train.

Look at the US…it has taken down many Local Gov’ts.

The Civil Service can retire at age 55, and many take on a 2nd career. We have cops that retire and then take jobs that pay even more on the Public Transit Police.

I keep hearing stories of civil servants that are now on pension longer than they were working.

What we are seeing is Empire Building and circle the wagons..it is THEM versus US..till the golden goose ultimately collapses.

#163 AACI Home-dog on 12.11.12 at 9:37 pm

Can’t imagine anyone wanting to be “examined” by Dr. Wayne…yikes…

#164 Mr Buyer on 12.11.12 at 9:46 pm

#79 Gunboat denier on 12.11.12 at 10:55 am
51 Mr B – so they built before/at start of the bubble then when they sold in the bubble they didnt have enough to repay the loan and there are huge numbers like this?

This makes no sense.
……………………………………………………..
The many stories like this entail sellers that could not be sellers after all as there were in fact no buyers at any price really. The particulars of this story are unique in that they could no longer carry the burden and cashed out before further gains were realized. The lions share of stories I am referring to were set in and after the bubble rather than before and prior to the collapse of the bubble. I hope I have made somewhat more sense as I am approaching the limits of my intellectual capacity and am about to descend into gibberish.

#165 Old Man on 12.11.12 at 9:47 pm

#155 DonDWest – yes you made a good point, but the private sector and the public sector are two different worlds. The public sector pays big money with benefits that are out of this world, and since I had to take two hour lunches was lost. My boss said take walk in the park or get layed on your lunch hour just disappear. I went to External Affairs as it had a huge diningroom with lots of babes to chat up for dates. I have no idea if things have changed, but could get a T-bone steak, a salad, vegetables, mashed patotoes, dessert, and a drink for $5.00. Why? I was earning twice the private sector with benefits, as you the taxpayer were indeed subsidizing the government buffet cafeterias, so I could eat well.

#166 cramar on 12.11.12 at 10:23 pm

#142 Old Man on 12.11.12 at 5:05 pm

#139 down and out – drive by 11 Georgia Avenue in Leamington as flipped that property in 1990 for a record price of $92,000.

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22 years later and that cute cottage is not worth much more today even though it has newer roof, vinyl siding and windows. Taking inflation into account, it would be worth less. Looks like you can’t get rich holding RE here even over the long haul.

#167 cynically on 12.12.12 at 1:24 am

#31 Nick – you must be from Prince Rupert.

#168 cynically on 12.12.12 at 1:43 am

#98 futurologist – in the past you’ve proven you know nothing about the US but you do know your Canada!

#169 Mr. Anderson on 12.12.12 at 10:25 am

A lot of pissy people on here today.

#170 “I still say no crash in Vancouver in regards to single family homes.” [We Disagree] | Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive on 12.12.12 at 6:30 pm

[…] “I still say no crash in Vancouver in regards to single family homes. Sure real estate sales are slow – it’s December! Spring will bring a flurry of sales in single family homes -don’t forget that “Real Estate is emotional” As soon as the price dips a bit (maybe 10-20%) and there are lots of listings – people will flock to the market. Vancouver is like the San Francisco of Canada. Prices never dipped there more than 20% from the peak and have rebounded to almost peak values . Check Zillow if you don’t believe me. Vancouver has the mildest climate of any major city in Canada and is the most attractive major city in Canada. Definitely no “crash” in Vancouver in regards to single family homes.” – western observer at greaterfool.ca 11 Dec 2012 12:26am […]