Frankendata

A brief follow on yesterday’s post about datagate. When realtors are the gatekeepers of market information, they invite allegations of conflict-of-interest. Not only are consumers blinded to historic price data – a vital tool to help judge value – but current market conditions are shrouded in a fog of misinformation.

For example, right now the housing market is in the early but irrefutable stages of a decline. However, looking at real estate board stats, you’d think buyers are snapping up houses for damn near 100% of what sellers are asking – suggesting robust demand.

But the official MLS site, realtor.ca, won’t tell you if a property has been re-listed at a lower price, or even recently had the price reduced for lack of interest. This is crucial knowledge, since in times of a softening market (like now) a strategic buyer will wait, not pounce.

The last post mentioned Viewpoint.ca, currently the sole site in Canada which carries sales history data, and much more. (Sadly it’s only available, for now, in the Nova Scotia market.) In NS the real estate boards will tell you that over the past year sellers have scored, on average, an impressive 96.5% of their asking prices, clearly suggesting market momentum.

But the data, once you have access to it, says something else, as Viewpoint’s founder Bill McMullin points out:

Aggregate value of real estate listed in Nova Scotia in the last 12 months: $2.71 billion (at the original asking prices).
Aggregate value of list prices at the time a sale took place: $2.54 billion
Aggregate value of actual sale prices: $2.45 billion (90% of original list, but 96.5% of last list)
Aggregate value of price reductions: $263 million.
Number of price changes: 11,000

After fees, sellers received only 85% of original list price.  Ugly.

Another key factor: days on market. This basic piece of information is nowhere to be found on an MLS listing appearing on realtor.ca. So buyers have no idea if a listing has languished because of mispricing or other flaws, or is a new offering that merits immediate scrutiny.

For example, someone shopping for a $1-million spread on Nova Scotia’s desirable South Shore who has access only to MLS would never know the shocking story that Viewpoint.ca reveals. Of 15 showcase houses the average number of days on the market is a staggering 676, or almost two years. There is a dismal sales-to-list ratio of only 7.1%, and the average price reduction of listed but unsold properties is 18%. The conclusion: this is one momma of a buyer’s market in which high-end properties have gone illiquid.

So why are real estate boards in the country fighting the release of such vital market info?

For the same reason the biggest among them have rolled out the Frankenumber – the MLS Home Price Index. Instead of publishing average or median prices, many boards are spoon-feeding local media an index which dices, slices, chops and whips data until it’s an unrecognizable pabulum of meaninglessness. Now consumers have no clear idea if the market’s expanding or contracting, if prices are sticky or sliding, or sellers are bullish or capitulating. But the HPI does accomplish one vital goal – it effectively masks market declines. Like now.

Realtors, naturally, wish you did not come here. Or read news like this:

Builders in the GTA have just had the worst October since the great financial crisis. In fact, the second-worst October ever, capping off a three-month slide that has the industry back at 2008 levels. Housing starts – houses and condos – collapsed last month by 47% compared with the same period in 2010 and are 30% lower than last year. “In an attempt to cool down the market, the federal government has severely affected the building and development industry in the GTA,” says spokesman Bryan Tuckey. “The introduction of stricter mortgage regulations has triggered a decline in new home sales, and if this trend continues, it will affect job creation in the coming years, restricting economic growth.”

The Royal Bank says house prices are so high that to own a home with a fat 25% down takes 52.4% of the pre-tax income of the average Toronto family. That’s $54,500 a year, leaving just $20,300 for everything else. In Vancouver it’s 83.2%, leaving no money. The bank adds ‘a dangerous level’ will be reached if interest rates rise – which it expects to begin happening in the second half of 2013, ten months from now.

And the Globe had a big headline yesterday: “Drop in home prices spreads to Toronto.” Says TD’s chief economist, Craig Wright, “It’s no longer just about Vancouver.” Adds CIBC’s Benny Tal: “We are starting to see the beginning of a negative trend in the housing market in Canada.” That, of course, is what this pathetic blog has been moaning, gnashing and vexing about for some time – the inevitability of what’s now taking place.

As I told you a few days ago, the price of a detached home in 416 has tumbled 7% in the last six months. There is more to come. But what does the local real estate board report? “The average selling price during the first 14 days of November was $488,647 – up by 1.7 per cent in comparison to the first 14 days of November 2011.”

So, what do you need to know – that prices are slightly higher than a year ago, or are now on a downward trajectory?

Canadian housing is an inflated and dangerous asset class. But don’t expect to hear that from the local Re/Max guy. After all, it’s a great time to buy.

180 comments ↓

#1 Derek R on 11.22.12 at 9:42 pm

Been a little while since I last distributed the GarthFAQ. So here, once again, is a link to help anybody who isn’t sure who TNL@TB is, or whether they should worry because they don’t have any lawn ornaments.

The GarthFAQ

#2 a prairie dawg on 11.22.12 at 9:45 pm

Here we go again. Time to get some popcorn. lol

#3 jess on 11.22.12 at 9:46 pm

huh?

Bill Black: Banks try to start a run on the banks in Ecuador

why would these bank ceo’s email all their depositors and spread such garbage … Do you think they feared the gov. new tax on excess profits /compensation caps

#4 V on 11.22.12 at 9:47 pm

arnold is numero uno

#5 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.22.12 at 9:48 pm

$488,647 average price is almost the same as May 2011 ($485,520).

18 months later, and prices up less than 1%?

#6 Smoking Man on 11.22.12 at 9:52 pm

Gartho not in long branch 7% since spring peek. Ah happens every year.

To bring out the fat lady in a thong dancing gangnum style. Let’s chat in April. These phyco home owners are to dumb to capitulate. They will pay 80% of income to have bragging rights and granite to chirp low life renters.

It’s a culture immigrant thing. Stats don’t matter. The mind of the tax farm slave, it’s the perception and protection of success is all that matters

The smoking man know.

Can I please chirp Buy ? Curious? You have so ruined my fun. With you’re rules

#7 T-Bone on 11.22.12 at 9:53 pm

Cliff dive!

#8 JO on 11.22.12 at 9:56 pm

There are lies, damned lies, and then statistics.
The economy over the last 8-10 yrs has been a spectacle..a pathetic joke of conflict of interest, greed, and a web of many hands earning a lot of money from a massive debt bubble which has fooled the average joe into thinking they are rich. The truth is the average joe is actually being taxed but thinks he is getting richer.

A few yrs from now, we will look back at the spectacle and now debacle that has started and wonder how it could have happened….history doesn’t necessarily repeat but it does rhyme.

JO

#9 LuckyRenter on 11.22.12 at 9:56 pm

Canada’s Flaherty does not fear crash landing for housing

Nov 22 (Reuters) – Canada’s housing market appears to be cooling at a moderate pace rather than crashing, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Thursday in an interview with the Business News Network.

Asked whether he feared housing prices are falling too quickly, Flaherty said he did not. “I’m glad that it is moderating. That was our goal, to reduce demand, especially in the condo sector in Vancouver and Toronto and we’ve seen that,” he said.

“It’s a difficult market, it tends to boom and bust … so we’re hoping we can get a middle ground here that will be neither of the above.”

Wishful thinking??

#10 Smoking Man on 11.22.12 at 9:56 pm

Dude don’t wana say your name, sorry for not hooking up today, had a mark, a futer victim of the wrong side of a deal came to town. Tue look good.

Wants exclusive rights to an app. I built via stealing code from google. Worth about 1.2m drinks are on me tue

#11 JW on 11.22.12 at 9:57 pm

What is the reason a company like viewpoint.ca cannot spread throughout the rest of the country?

I think the consumers should demand it.

#12 Lily joe on 11.22.12 at 10:04 pm

2013 will be interesting! Why have people bought houses only to drain their account? Did they all really think everyone’s house in the country was going to only go up in value forever? Did they only think of monthly payment’s, low interst rates and taxes never to increase year after year?
Now it will be blame the government! Nobody will want to admit how foolish they were. Critical thinking is a valuable skill. Thanks for your blog Garth.

#13 Seven Stars and Orion on 11.22.12 at 10:07 pm

The unfortunately misnamed “Devil’s Advocate” has teased long-time readers at least twice in the last few years about going away. Fear not! His excruciatingly long-winded posts, sans contractions, will soon bless our screens again.

#14 East Van on 11.22.12 at 10:09 pm

The real estate boards are almost as secretive as the CONs in Ottawa

#15 Lily joe on 11.22.12 at 10:11 pm

Blame the government and the realtors for this mess! I forgot the realtor

#16 Old Man on 11.22.12 at 10:11 pm

#10 Smoking Man did you see #7 called T-Bone, as am sure some women in this room are paying attention.

#17 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.22.12 at 10:12 pm

@ #9 LuckyRenter

Flaherty calling for a soft landing? That pretty much guarantees a crash.

Just like recessions and balanced budgets, F is a perfect zero-for-ALL in making economic predictions.

#18 X on 11.22.12 at 10:13 pm

Bryan Tuckey – “The introduction of stricter mortgage regulations has triggered a decline in new home sales, and if this trend continues, it will affect job creation in the coming years, restricting economic growth.”

Same happens when everyone has to use all of their money to pay their mortgage. No money for anything else also affects job creation and economic growth in other sectors.

CREA/TREB etc… are all getting exposed for what they are. Changes will be in their future. The RE market is just starting to turn, more investors will be upset about being misled, and will seek attention for their cause.

#19 Tim on 11.22.12 at 10:18 pm

If the market declines are masked, then why have the prices of many condos in Vancouver on the MLS sight barely budged despite all this gloom and doom?

Time for your meds. — Garth

#20 Smoking Man on 11.22.12 at 10:19 pm

Old man re cliff dive, I don’t get it. Must be getting old

#21 Will on 11.22.12 at 10:26 pm

Lies, damned lies, and statistics … it seems to me that the number of sales is the only clean piece of data. Think of sales as purchases. It’s the buyers who bring money to the market who sustain it. The sellers just provide what they hope will be fuel. If the number of sales is rising, the market is rising or about to rise. Falling numbers mean the reverse. It is pure BS for the Real Estate Boards to say the market is steady if the number of sales is dropping.

#22 Ralph Cramdown on 11.22.12 at 10:29 pm

For the real, unvarnished truth, you have to go to RBC:

“The broad affordability picture has been somewhat stationary over the last two years, alternating between periods of improvement and deterioration, resulting in an affordability trend that is, on net, essentially flat. [... The BoC's expected rate increases starting in 2H2013] , along with the expected continued growth in household income, will lessen the risk of marked erosion in affordability,” he said.

Got that?

#23 Lily joe on 11.22.12 at 10:33 pm

I agree with x – what good does being indebted in a house do for our local economy? Such as the movie theatre with the kids, flower shops for fun and restaurants for Friday lunch with your spouse.

#24 Jounce on 11.22.12 at 10:34 pm

Canadian housing is a bad, bad bet in the long run for the up and coming generation. Just cause it worked in the inflationary boomer era doesn’t mean it will hold up in the one now following it.

Committing half to three quarters of all your after tax money on a mortgaged fused ‘housebomb’ is an exceedingly risky bet for 25 to 30 years of your working life.

You just hope nothing goes wrong like a divorce, a serious illness, a firing, or some other disaster that drops all your well balanced plans into the cosmic toilet.

It seems the betting-odds have just turned against you and back to the house (e.g. Banskters) .

I hear a lot of jingle mail coming.

#25 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.22.12 at 10:37 pm

I like this Smoking Man….he gets a bone-us of 10 more days.

His formula is to “cut and paste” Shakespeare…then let a drunk squirrel run over the peanut butter -coated keyboard… before he/she presses “bend over” … errr “SUBMIT”

Genie Wuss !

#26 HomeWatcher on 11.22.12 at 10:40 pm

It’s resistance to give all MLS data, as Garth and Bill mentioned, that is the issue. Not to mention getting feed access from every board in Canada (a lesser challenge)

The problem with the MLS home price index is that it appears designed to smooth out short to medium term trends, so while prices are dropping it hides the month to month or quarterly “trend” which is absolutely important in understanding sentiment and trends.

There was talk in the industry of a Canada wide MLS feed last year, but even if that ever comes to pass unless things change none of the Viewpoints “type” data will be available.

#27 jan on 11.22.12 at 10:42 pm

No offense to the smoking man but you sir sound like a total goof!!

#28 Sydneysider on 11.22.12 at 10:44 pm

“As I told you a few days ago, the price of a detached home in 416 has tumbled 7% in the last six months. ”

What is the source of this information? According to Teranet, the price rose by 7% (for Toronto) in the six months prior to (not including) November 2012.

TREB stats. — Garth

#29 Suede on 11.22.12 at 10:46 pm

Several ads in the free daily’s in the LM where developers are saying “Earn 10% on your condo deposit”

yes, please pay me a measly sum of money to hold my capital so 1.5 years from now my equity can take a hair cut.

People in vancouver slowly starting to chat about renting. For real.

When my MIL finally tells me that a Vancouver house is not a good investment, that will be near the bottom. No sign of it yet. She’s full of opinions. Mostly from MSN and CTV

Stay tuned.

SmokingM, you may get burned on the HD short, broke through resistance today on low thanksgiving volume. Get your stop loss ready for Monday

#30 Suede on 11.22.12 at 10:49 pm

For whoever mentioned PSN the other day, wow, huge hair cut and paying a 20% dividend. Is it sustainable, that’s probably the $1M question? One of the deep pocketed VP’s just bought over $600k of the company stock yesterday.

A classic lesson in diversity never to be too invested in one stock. ETF’s = substantially less volatile.

#31 Devore on 11.22.12 at 10:59 pm

So why are real estate boards in the country fighting the release of such vital market info?

For the same reason the biggest among them have rolled out the Frankenumber – the MLS Home Price Index

Why indeed? Just shooting themselves in the foot. As if a single number could be made to represent what is happening with the local real estate market, never mind national. That’s why the more data is available to third parties, who actually know statistics, and know what customers want, can slice and dice it a million different ways mls.ca can’t ever hope to cater to.

An informed consumer is a happy consumer. People like being in the driver’s seat and making decisions. I will forever remember how utterly giddy and thrilled the owner of a company I used to work for was when he learned Excel and was doing all kinds of sexy things to the reams of raw data I gave him, freeing me from the tedium of having to produce canned reports of what I thought he wanted.

As DA bemoans the uselessness of Zillow to the real estate buying/selling process, he keeps missing the most important point: this is just good business. It would cost CREA little in terms of infrastructure investment, and be a nice stable profit centre.

#32 Smoking Mans smarter cousin on 11.22.12 at 11:00 pm

Man..If I didn’t know better..I’d swear there is a conspiracy to rip off people .

Say it ain’t so Cuz….it’s different in Canaduh….right?…err “eh” ?

#33 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.22.12 at 11:03 pm

@ #28 Sydneysider on 11.22.12 at 10:44 pm
“As I told you a few days ago, the price of a detached home in 416 has tumbled 7% in the last six months. ”

What is the source of this information? According to Teranet, the price rose by 7% (for Toronto) in the six months prior to (not including) November 2012.
________________________

Mid-May: $835,522
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news2012/nr_mid_month_0512.htm

October: $779,484 (-6.7%)
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news2012/nr_market_watch_1012.htm

#34 debtors_winners on 11.22.12 at 11:12 pm

/18 months later, and prices up less than 1%/

I wish it would be true. But this one gained almost 8% for 12 months: http://www.torontomls.net/PublicWeb/CL_CF.asp?link_no=46284422.099800&t=l&fm=M

and it’s a really ugly one: very dark inside with backyard facing a rear wall of recently build shopping plaza (can you imagine those garbage bins in summer time next to your backyard fence). By no means it can be considered as a great location, who is buying this? What’s a motivation? Affordability?! – average income in that area is $118,000. According to re agent buyer put 25% down.

#35 ozy - typical kanatian lies on 11.22.12 at 11:13 pm

Tell me one sector that is not full of lies in kanata and I will eat it, govt, unions, bussiness, all lip-stick their stuff, man, is kanata 2012 slave to Marketing King. Capitalism at its top. Watch for that coming down Garth, might collapse sudden than the house of cards named RE. With your job too. Fill the basement with foodello my friendello if you realize what’s coming.
Things are going to change in RE and everywhere when kids will get a decent education, catering to truth not to fake politeness. So maybe 2080

What the hell was that? — Garth

#36 nsqt on 11.22.12 at 11:16 pm

Being that I am living in Nova Scotia I have been on the viewpoint.ca site and looking up different homes….I hope that this site spreads all across Canada so everyone can have access to the info. provided…..

#37 Devore on 11.22.12 at 11:17 pm

#23 Lily joe

I agree with x – what good does being indebted in a house do for our local economy? Such as the movie theatre with the kids, flower shops for fun and restaurants for Friday lunch with your spouse.

Nothing. High house prices are a net drain on the economy. After all, we merely sell houses to each other. They are a necessity, an expense. Having vast amounts of equity tied up in real estate doesn’t do anyone any good. Instead, minimize your expenses, and put your money to work. Don’t complain about not benefiting from Canada’s resource riches, and buy a piece for yourself. If you don’t, the Chinese will. Oh, you’ll complain about that too.

#38 eddy on 11.22.12 at 11:19 pm

The purpose of realtor.ca is make the phone ring at the listing agents office- not to educate. I’m still waiting for one of the bloggers to give me the address of a Leaside bungalow on MLS I can buy for under
$1,000,000. (the same ones that went for $650,000 in 2010.)

#39 Aaron - Melbourne on 11.22.12 at 11:23 pm

Australia wants its fair share of HAM. Does a $5M buy in seem fair to jump the queue?

The irony of the 888 “golden ticket” is that each of the spoiled brats in Charlie and the Chocolate Factory met with a cruel fate related to their greed.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/wonky-values-in-golden-ticket-visa-program-20121122-29sxo.html

#40 The end is nigh on 11.22.12 at 11:25 pm

Realtors, it’s gonna be a nasty, nasty crash.
It’s gonna be a gut wrenching, bone crashing, blood curling, eye popping nasty, nasty crash Realtors.
Sorry, could not resist.
Feel much better now.

#41 Ralph Cramdown on 11.22.12 at 11:28 pm

More of what agents do for you to add value:

203. enter any listing changes on listing board
225. update listing board
250. print sale report for file
265. reorganize sale file
283. prepare tag for property key
301. file to “closed” compartment
Who knew it was this complicated. They’re worth every penny I say, worth every penny!

#42 Toronto on 11.22.12 at 11:34 pm

Well done good post. At least someone has guts to write against real estate board. Otherwise they can buy any main stream media. I wonder, if they did not approach you so far.

#43 ShockednAwed on 11.22.12 at 11:38 pm

Reminds me of the UBC statistical analyst describing the Cold FX studies. “they tortured the data until it confessed”

#44 Djb on 11.22.12 at 11:39 pm

The reality is the R/E agent works for the seller and not the buyer. The R/E agent has staked their reputation on getting the maximum price for their client. Thats why they restrict the information

To bad there is not a buyers R/E agent that could be compensated for negotiating a better price for the buyer.

#45 Sparky55 on 11.22.12 at 11:41 pm

Cuts!

$499,000 @ May 2012

Now down to $369,900

PID 40458416

http://www.viewpoint.ca/property/cutsheet/40458416?no-nav=1&no-footer=1

#46 Smoking Man on 11.22.12 at 11:48 pm

Suede on 11.22.12 at 10:46 pm

Long gone on that trade man , Obama stats, re election, building 7 , not an idiot here.

Know how shit works.

After all I am a Smoking Man.

Still short aapl. got my ass kicked a bit on natural gas, was only looking at batman on monthly charts, when I went to yearly. instantly exited – un-loaded. Getting old dude.

Good news, my aapl short makes long contract on oil, (disapointed isreal) and HD, a mosquito bite.

That’s how trading goes

#47 Burnt Norton on 11.22.12 at 11:49 pm

Holy macaroni

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/?m=1

“But in what is another sign the bubble is bursting in the Lower Mainland, Observer notes that over 20% of listed homes in Shaughnessy right now were purchased just one year ago (this is not including new builds, so the figure is actually higher).

These are speculators desperate to get out and cut their losses”.

#48 Van Isle Renter on 11.22.12 at 11:54 pm

I don’t get it: The CREB complains to F that he’s killing the industry, but yet the CREB says prices are up?

I guess the CREB stats get F off the hook; how can there be a problem when the industry says there’s no problem?

Thanks CREB. Your own idiocy is your own downfall.

Also what do the banks say? Are they stupid enough to use cooked figures to determine fair market value? I kind of doubt it. My bet is that they don’t trust the CREB numbers either and that they are turning down borrowers left right and center.

Who wants to lend someone 95% financing $$ for a depreciating illiquid asset? Yeah, nobody.

Doesn’t really matter what CREB says. Not even the banks will believe it. And the bank is the ultimate power here, not the CREB.

#49 Smoking Man on 11.22.12 at 11:57 pm

#40 The end is nigh on 11.22.12 at 11:25 pm

May I recommend a natural buddy. Sir LaughingCon. he would be nothing on here had I not elevated his status by talking about him.

LaughingCom, hope ur right, revenge on sis, and my kids
can buy closer to me.

Just don’t see it yet.

Did I mention I lead the foot ball pool at tax farm slave land, and I don’t know shit about football.

The force man it works

#50 eddy on 11.23.12 at 12:01 am

@ Ralph Cramdown-
that’s a funny list. I noticed that the majority of listings on realtor.ca have no multimedia. Now that’s Really being cheap. They must have a good line for their vendors like-

‘Virtual tours dont sell houses, agents do’

or
‘No amount of multi media will help sell an over priced listing , so here’s the price reduction form’

#51 squidly77 on 11.23.12 at 12:04 am

Calgary realtors have claimed that sales and prices keep going up in Cowtown. It would be true if not for one point, and that is they haven’t.

Since May of 2007 sales and prices have done nothing but go down, prices in Calgary are down $50,000 + easy and sales are down 25%, combine that with a 60% decline in interest rates and its crystal clear that Calgary is heading into a major bust.

Avg CGY SFH 2007 $505,000 @ 7% = $36,000/yr int.
Avg CGY SFH 2012 $450,000 @ 3% = $13,500/yr int.

Calgary avg SFH prices are now $2,000 a month cheaper when considering only the interest rate payment.

Amortized over 5 years that equals $120,000 in savings when compared to 2007. Not to mention that your principle is $50,000 less.

The big smoke and the wet coast will take months to catch up to Calgarys in full motion housing price crash.

As far as the statistical information the Calgary realtors offer up, I don’t even know what the hell they’re talking about any more. How they calculate sales and what Pablum mix of data they are use is about as mysterious as trying to guess whats in Pandora’s box.

Now you see it now you don’t, or what shell is that pea under. It’s all smoke and mirrors now.

#52 HDJ on 11.23.12 at 12:08 am

To keep an eye on the real estate market in Victoria we use something called, “private client services”. The service is supplied by real estate agents looking to get us as clients. Updated lists of properties of potential interest to us (locations, price range, etc), along with photos and descriptions, are delivered almost every day to our email address. The data includes listing dates and histories of price reductions where applicable. This isn’t everything we’d like to know, but it’s useful.

#53 Mortgage Broker on 11.23.12 at 12:15 am

Very interesting post!
I’m laughing for more than 3 years at you guys! Since Garth Turner made his predictions of inevitable crash my clients made tons of money on RE!
The biggest laugh today was statistics from Nova Scotia – the biggest and most successful province which by all means sets a trend in Canadian real estate :)
Love to read your masochistic comments, because most of you just dreamed you have bought a piece of real estate 2-3 years ago instead of whining for crash!

You are a credit to your species. — Garth

#54 Smoking Man on 11.23.12 at 12:16 am

DELETED

#55 TRT on 11.23.12 at 12:20 am

Tim (#19) has a point…but lets just shrug him off and call him a Realturd..

Having said that, was in Richmond Centre today … and at one of the eateries, a young RE agent was finalizing a deal with a young woman to buy a condo. The young woman (early 20’s) kept nodding her head in approval…

Was she ever buying at the wrong time! I thought to myself –Can’t save everyone and left! Oh, it was a Chinese CND realtor selling to a Caucasian CND in Richmond!! Lol

#56 squidly77 on 11.23.12 at 12:24 am

As I said in my previous comment, Calgary now offers up a $170,000 saving on a 2012 SFH price when compared to 2007. That’s 35% cost/price crash on just the first 5 years. Its only started.

But I must add this, Calgary appears to have some of the smartest realtors (Is that an oxymoron-jumbo Shrimp type statement?) in Canada. How else can one explain how they have fooled the MSM, expert economists and banker shills into believing whats stares them right in the face.

Oh yeah, I just remembered.

Calgarys real estate shim sham ponzi scam is about to go into a full blown clown run gong show, headlined by the realtors who have painted themselves right into a corner.

#57 Interesting Times on 11.23.12 at 12:32 am

HGTV Virgins get out there and start low balling these realtards by 50 percent. Don’t waste your time going to open houses when you could just sit on the MLS and low ball these used car salespeople by email. Get out there and get your revenge. Show them that you are not as stupid as the show protrays you!

– Europe already in recession/depression, Japan and US right behind them. This will have a negative feed back loop across the global economy.

– jobs being lost everywhere and the Canadian economy is slowing down.

– austerity starting already in Canada. Many in government jobs will be bye, bye. Federal government last week fired over 10,000 workers in Ottawa and more to come!

– manufacturing jobs have moved to Asia and back to the US. You dumb Canadians can’t compete with the New America where the factory worker now makes $12.00 an hour and can buy a nice home for $100,000K. You are so screwed.

– 70% of CDN living pay cheque to pay cheque and have no savings and over 70% have no pensions

– 60% of boomers 60 years and older entering retirement in a shit load of debt. Also, a lot of these boomer fools co-signed for their kids $800,000 Mc Mansions. The banksters will wipe the floor clean with both the kids and parents after this 50% RE Crash when they both lose there homes!

– empty condos being built everywhere and will be going for 50% off soon. HGTV Virgins will be crushed!!!

– empty homes all over the MLS, can you say power of sales have started

– for lease signs everywhere in business districts and commercial areas, I guess business has moved out of Canada

– Canadians are 163 percent in debt! More than the US, Ireland, and UK when they had there RE Crash.

– Over 6 months of dropping RE sales. Next thing to drop will be prices by 50%.

– over 60% of mortgages in Canada are 5% or 0 down CHMC mortgages. Can you say high risk and backed by the taxpayer. When this baby blows up kiss your social services good bye. This is what the in action plan looks like. We supported our banks with free taxpayer dollars to give out loans to people with no money creating a RE ponzi scheme 10 times bigger than the US, Spain, Ireland etc.

– And remember a home is only worth what a buyer will pay.

– the realtards, brokers, banks and builders are in full out panic

The 50% crash is here my virgins. Get out there and start low balling as the time is now for your revenge. Don’t sign up for bank slavery like the other 70% of the virgins in Canada. They are screwed for life now as they were sold the Koolaid by the RE industry!

#58 Oakvillian on 11.23.12 at 12:34 am

Garth,

you dont need to publish this message as its for you. If you change your ‘title tag’ of the blog it will show very high on Google rankings. Something like. Real Estate bubble info by Garth Turner or similar. Google reads the title tags first and your site will be very prominent on Google.ca. Just my 2 cents as I know this biz very well.

Just what I need. More weird visitors. — Garth

#59 ferryworker on 11.23.12 at 12:35 am

I hope you don’t get bored of nailing the cartel about witholding data.

#60 vanmom on 11.23.12 at 12:36 am

#Derick R…u r pretty funny!..”.The GarthFAQ”
Smoking Man, hmmm WT#

#61 Undercovermom on 11.23.12 at 12:44 am

#35 ozy – typical kanatian lies on 11.22.12 at 11:13 pm

“What the hell was that? — Garth”

My thoughts exactly………Garth, you are TOO funny! :o)

#62 Brad in Cowtown on 11.23.12 at 12:45 am

#51 squidly77

Squid, you would be absolutely hilarious if you weren’t so sad. Picking the ALL TIME Calgary high as a starting point for your analysis? Gee, that’s convenient. An all-time high that just happened to peak right before a global financial meltdown. And Calgary is still only down 50k from that all time high. It’s the most affordable city in Canada. Prices and sales soared last month. Income is rising. Net migration continues to be positive, so people love living here. And the economy here is the envy of the nation. Absolutely zero reasons for prices to fall, and no indication of that changing any time soon. It’s no coincidence Garth rarely refers to Calgary anymore. Because he knows the evidence only supports his theories in other markets.

Like I said Squid… hilarious. And sad. Check out your past predictions for more hilarity.

#63 Canadian Watchdog on 11.23.12 at 12:53 am

Google search for “MLS listings Canada” crashes to 0 Link

Google search for “pay debt” in Canada soars Link

#64 Investx on 11.23.12 at 12:53 am

Devil’s Advocate: I can honestly say I know of no Canadian entity with as much integrity as The Canadian Real Estate Association.
———

Lol @ DA’s denial.
How foolish.

#65 Vamanos Pest on 11.23.12 at 12:59 am

I hate to even mention him, but in trying to defend the realtors, Devil’s Advocate actually said some pretty damning things:

He used the term “competitive cooperation” as some sort of clever model for the industry. However, this is just a euphemism collusion. In fact, “cooperation” is in the definition of collusion (at least in my dictionary).

Second, he said that his relationship with his realtor colleagues is “his most important asset”. Funny, in a lot of industries our clients are our most important asset!

So basically, in DEFENCE of realtors he stated that the industry survives by colluding to put the welfare of realtors over that of clients.

…and then is frustrated when we don’t all love him for it.

Help Garth, I strained my hamster!

#66 Patiently Waiting on 11.23.12 at 1:11 am

MLS data is extremely valuable to any would be buyer or seller. For example here are some samples of properties that are currently for sale in White Rock & South Langley, and some of the data you will never get to see from your friendly local realtard that you would surely like to know if you were considering making an offer:

1) MLS F1223408
Current List Price $2,848,000
Total of 4 mortgages on title
2 notices of Pending Litigation on title
Total Mortgage Debt $2,360,000

2)MLS F1214635
Originally Listed at $1,639,000 in October 2011
Current List Price $$1,459,000
2 mortgages on title for a total of $1,535,000

3) MLS f1219499
Originally listed at $1,598,000 March 2011
Price was increased to $1,799,000 in Jan 2012
Current List Price reduced to $1,598,000
1st Mgt $1,375,000 at Prime Plus 7%
2nd Mgt $103,000 at 12.95% p.a.

4) MLS F1217451
Originally Listed at $ 1,595,000 18-Aug-11
Current List Price $1,279,999 23-Oct-12
1st Mgt $1,150,000 at Prime Plus 5%
2nd Mgt $220,000 $220,000 at 14% p.a.
Now under Court Ordered Sale

5) MLS F1212771
Originally Listed $2,500,000 12-Sep-08
Priced as high as $2,888,888 14-Jan-12
Now Listed at $2,499,000 25-Jul-12
Mortgage is $2,000,000 at Prime Plus 3%
The owner is a realtor

6) MLS F1211919
Originally Listed at $1,968,000 31-Mar-11
Reduced to $1,679,000 15-Oct-12
Expired for now
Mortgage is $1,550,000 at Prime Plus 7%

That’s it for now. But just goes to show the value of the hidden information that is kept from the general public.
Talk to me and maybe I will start a BC version of Viewpoint.ca . . . LOL . . .

pw

#67 Roy on 11.23.12 at 1:20 am

These are exceptionally valid points raised on this blog. This should all be public information, not guarded secrets of the real estate industry. Just look at 2012. If people knew the truth about what has happened this year, the outcome could be totally different. Things might even be in much better shape if the facts were available.

This is a pure and simple case of a total lack of transparency. It is a cut and dry case of massive collusion between all parts of the industry. It is a total scheme of corruption, intent on manipulating every single buyer out there. The system is completely and nearly totally rigged against the buyer, unless they do deep research, which they should anyways. Because of this set up, sellers are actually getting shafted by the tilted balance of power and of course their own greed.

If this were a court case, lawyers would immediately throw out the representation due to conflict of interest. There is no reason people should have to go begging and crawling to realtors to find out more in-depth trends, or history, or especially recent history. This is absolutely rediculous. But look at the media and the realty boards cast cover. Every single report keeps saying that a good rebound is expected in 2013. There isn’t one shred of evidence they incite to make that claim. They just dictate reality.

I’ve noticed that the realty boards are almost exclusively quoting the HPI these days. For instance in Van they just reported the index went up another 0.1%. The average person out there simply translates that as prices are still rising. Meanwhile it has been virtually a whole year of RE horror in the trenches. From watching actual data on the sidelines, it is clear sellers in Vancouver are having an incredibly difficult time just getting people to look, or entertain an open house, let alone make a sale. I estimate a large percentage of properties are languishing for extended periods, going through multiple expirations and price changes. Virtually every seller is behind the eight-ball here, all compliments of an RE system imposing a draconian sense of reality. Buyers are having none of this because no one wants to deal with a system that is fully intent on screwing them.

It almost seems certain that come spring 2013 there is going to be a huge overhang of unsold property in Vancouver that didn’t sell in 2012. The MOI is already high. If this doesn’t change in the dead winter months, we may see a spring 2013 where realtors have to tell sellers they simply cannot come on the market unless they are ready to face much bigger price drops.

#68 Hugh Jasz on 11.23.12 at 1:33 am

#56 Interesting Times on 11.23.12 at 12:32 am
HGTV Virgins get out there and start low balling these realtards by 50 percent. Don’t waste your time going to open houses when you could just sit on the MLS and low ball these used car salespeople by email…………….

Are you seriously making the same post for at least the third time this week?

#69 pretzels on 11.23.12 at 1:35 am

#54 TRT

Confused Desi

#70 daystar on 11.23.12 at 1:37 am

Another impressive piece, Garth. Nicely done.

#31 Devore on 11.22.12 at 10:59 pm

Agreed. Zillow is good business. When a market declines, buyers do like the idea of paying less than the guy who bought at the top. I would think that it would help support prices to some extent especially in a severe correction.

Either way, Garth is dead on about realtors being in a conflict of interest acting as source providers of previous historic price data. Realtors aren’t going to volunteer this information unless they believe it will maximize sale value and I can guarantee that some realtors won’t give up this information when asked for it directly from buyers as I assume they aren’t required by law to do so (someone correct me if I’m wrong) and since some buyers don’t know where else to go for the information they seek (land registry), they’ll fly blind and as a consequence, likely pay more than they would or should.

Garth’s point on days on market listed on the MLS are also well worth repeating. Its not like the MLS isn’t tracking this data, they just don’t report it and such lack of disclosure tilts the hand in favor of higher market value which the banks, governments, media, realtors, developers, anyone who profits from squeezing the highest possible value regardless of systemic and individual cost.

Such examples of lack of disclosure is to me, a kind of fraud in a way that, like all other frauds, thrive on naked self interests and greed but its just one of many ongoing variables and the sad part of it is that the runup in RE valuations in Canada has been so extreme that we’ve got more than a deflating housing bubble and negative equity to worry about. We’ve got a debt bubble now and when that sucker blows everyone will pay without exception whether its bankrupcies leading to higher public debt and a cheaper currency or eventual inflation driven by currency fluxuations or otherwise leading to higher interest rates that reveal the true ugliness of these crazy valuations that have to adjust, down to the debt holder that has to somehow manage the higher debt service to come.

Its just a question of when. When Mark Carney said 1 in 10 are at risk this spring, he wasn’t making it up.

I can’t help but think 2013 will be an ugly year for Canada and it could be just the beginning. Readers need to pay attention to the U.S. fiscal cliff and the timeline that follows in terms of how it will effect the spread between the Canadian/U.S. dollar should GWB tax cuts quietly expire and spending cuts set to kick in remain largely unchanged. Its not a U.S. recession or global recession Canada should fear most. On the contrary, its a strengthening U.S. dollar caused by stronger U.S. fiscal policy that leaves the loonie flatfooted, making room for Mark Carney to send rates higher.

Our lofty loonie is the main reason why we see BoC rates at 1%. Should the loonie fall to .95 cents or less, the BoC can more easily raise rates that in turn attract foreign investment sending the loonie higher. Should rates moderately rise in Canada and the loonie still falls below .90 cents due to a strengthening U.S. dollar, we’ll see notable inflation of imports forcing the BoC to raise rates to “normal” conditions in an effort to keep the loonie from losing too much ground. I see that happening by the summer of 2014, spring of 2015 at the latest now should we go back to clinton era tax hikes and U.S. spending cuts remain unchanged, especially so if the U.S. ends their wars by 2014 and the U.S. economy ignites.

People think a strong U.S. recovery will ignite Canada’s economy and on some levels it will. Manufacturing will bounce back somewhat (as the loonie falls over time) and commodity demand will be stronger but a U.S. recovery driven by a stronger dollar will also cause a weaker loonie while lowering commodity values, offsetting commodity demand fundamentals while higher inflation driven by higher import costs associated with a lower loonie will drive inevidably higher interest rates that expose our debt bubble for what it is.

Deadly.

2 years of a frothy bubble correction followed by a few more years of interest rate induced melt from there is what I see coming more than ever specifically if the U.S. drives over the fiscal cliff and if the U.S. economy and dollar bounces back hard and strong like I think it will in 2014, 2015… above normal interest rates are not hard to imagine by 2016, 2017 in Canada while Canada under Harper spirals in a falling loonie, rising public debt and fiscal weakness coupled with above normal interest rates crippling Canada’s service driven economy. Ugly narrative for Canada, I hope I’m wrong but, thats what I see.

#71 dddd on 11.23.12 at 1:41 am

foot ball pool at tax farm slave land
————————————————–

hey smoking %fear and loathing% man – why u need to go to tax farm and be slave everyday if you soooo smaaaart

i no work for da man nomore, i just a dummy, u gots the dough, screw dat!

#72 tedfiftyfour on 11.23.12 at 1:56 am

Garth you can stop venting over MLS data disclosure by reading the following.

Advertising sold properties can be an
effective way to market a Realtor skills. But there are rules.

The Regulator of Real Estate Council of Ontario
has the following checklist that applies to all forms of date advertising.
The Real Estate Council of Ontario requires Realtors to be compliant in the following advertising including: print, radio, television,

Advertisement cannot include information
that could be used to:
• Identify the buyer or seller in the real estate transaction, unless the buyer or seller has consented in writing.
• Identify a specific property (e.g., images or text), unless the owner has consented in writing (the owner being the seller if the transaction isn’t complete; the buyer once the transaction has closed).
hard to earn.
• Identify the specific details of an agreement Disclaimer: Registrant names used in these guidelines are fictitious names used for demonstrative purposes only and do not reflect
(e.g., price or terms), unless written consent has been obtained from both the buyer and seller.
Remember, if you need to get in touch with a buyer
or seller who is represented by another brokerage,
you must do so through the co-operating registrant, or obtain written consent before reaching out to the client.

Garth already know this information and the reason why this date is not available. To be a drama queen require one to ignore certain information in order to create the drama that this pathetic blog those. Garth loves his sheeple to be steeped in ignorance Its the reason he never corrects most of the misinformation published here by his minions

#73 Realist on 11.23.12 at 2:06 am

Access to other information, such as the true inflation rate and the true level of unemployment, is also restricted. The official figures are obvious lies.

For the US values, check out shadowstats.com to get some reasonable estimates.

#74 Salacious Crumb on 11.23.12 at 2:07 am

The newpaper insert, “The Edmonton Real Estate Weekly” seems to be thinner than its ever been. At the peak of the market it was thicker than the Edmonton Sun! I know this is anecdotal, but it lends to the reality that listings & sales in Edmonton have fallen through the floor.

#75 Jim on 11.23.12 at 2:11 am

“Asked whether he feared housing prices are falling too quickly, Flaherty said he did not. “I’m glad that it is moderating. That was our goal, to reduce demand, especially in the condo sector in Vancouver and Toronto and we’ve seen that,” he said.”

Such delicious words to hear. A ‘conservative’ finance minister spouting the gospel of centralized planning. These ‘free market’ types are really Soviets in disguise.

#76 aggie on 11.23.12 at 2:21 am

@ Tim… re condo list prices not having budged in Vancouver… I had to stop reading and drop a note in response.

I’m not watching prices anymore, but I did monitor my neighbours’s listings while I was trying to sell my own condo, 45 minutes to the east.

The 3 signs in the similar building across from me were up long before I listed and remain up, now 3 months since I sold. Similar history of signs in front of the building down the lane. Last time I checked, around a month ago, their list prices hadn’t budged.

The other 2 units that had been for sale in my building pulled themselves off the market after I sold, which I did at about 7.5% less than I paid in 2007. I came in low, and then dropped to counter the only offer I’d received, meeting them about halfway. They offered 225 to my asking 232,7, and we closed at 228,7.

I’d been on the market for about 2 months, closed in 6 weeks.

And count my blessings, because there truly was no hope of my ever getting ahead as long as I wore that oppressive yoke, consisting of a ridiculous mortgage at terms that should never have been allowed, steadily-increasing strata fee and property taxes, plus normal home maintenance, upgrades, and special strata levies. with the cost of time and commuting on top of that, it had all added up to also a personal cost, what with short-changed relationships and lack of the sorts of activities that make for a balanced lifestyle.

Now, as a basement dweller, a lowly renter who failed to prepare for the wrinkly sexless years that are within sight, I can at least see my way to regaining a minimal degree of personal, interpersonal, career, and financial well-being, scary though it is at times.

Before I sold, that was impossible to even hope, much less plan.

#77 SilverMeridian on 11.23.12 at 2:24 am

Hiding historic Real Estate data from the public allows certain Real Estate Boards (in my case Ottawa Real Estate Board) to juggle with words and essentially misinform consumers of the Real Estate service. Here is an example; only five days in November, Ottawa Real Estate Board has finally published it’s monthly News Release for October 2012 boldly named “Ottawa market picks up as the leaves fall”. First of all, does it really have to take them FIVE days to process all the data and come up with a few paragraphs of the most non-informative “News Release” I’ve ever seen? In comparison, other local Real Estate boards usually release sales data on the last day or a day after the end of the month, and the reports they are providing look more like a twenty pages documents filled with raw sales data and graphs, less like a five paragraph essay from the high school. Second of all, in the mentioned above “News Release” OREB President Ansel Clarke suggests that “we are seeing an increase in units sold” when he makes a comparison with October 2011. Well, the increase in sales is so miniscule, that you literally need a magnifying glass to notice the difference (when you look at this “increase” on the chart). Unfortunately he “forgot” to seasonally adjust the data; October 2011 only had 21 work days vs. 23 work days in October 2012. It is not a secret that most of the real estate transactions are done during the week days, rather then weekends, hence the “increase” in sales!! But the most interesting part is not what this “News Release” tells you, it is what it doesn’t tell you! Ansel Clarke is probably never going to mention record high New Listings (approx. 2200 in October alone), nor does he going to point out that Residential Active Listings are at all times high and just broke a new record of 6000 listings. Also, who wants to know that there are five and a half months worth of inventory accumulated on the Ottawa’s “stable and steady” Real Estate market. I guess Ottawa is truly a “great place to buy and/or sell a home”, President of the OREB said so. By the way, taking into account everything mentioned above I started to wonder if the President of the OREB may be is a part time or even volunteer position? Clearly these guys (and I just assume that there is more then one person involved into the management of the large regional Board) have some good room for improvement.

#78 FTP - First Time Poster on 11.23.12 at 2:32 am

So a cabal of individuals with an average Gr 10 education, who have an “industry standard” training program equivalent to a “Earn your degree online” home correspondence course in order to achieve “professional” status is gaming the system?

SHUT THE FRONT DOOR!

Really – isnt this the same as reporting that the sky is blue?

#79 prairieperson on 11.23.12 at 2:44 am

Commercial real estate is running far in advance of house prices. I visited the prairie town where I grew up. The main street is nothing but for sale signs. Some commercial bldgs have been for sale for more than two years. Lots of empty bldgs. In the meantime houses have gone crazy, 500 to 1M dollars. All retirees moving from the city to the country. To a small town an hour from the nearest city. Granite. Expensive cabinets. Most people over 55. Very strange contrast.

#80 Soylent Green is People on 11.23.12 at 3:06 am

Well one day the Bought and Paid For Boys, were paid a special visit by Mr. Don Cherry. He brought a signed jersey for Stephen Harper and a box of a new “medicine” he was flogging. Cold-FX.

When COLD-fX maker CV Technologies visited Parliament Hill with their spokesman, hockey commentator Don Cherry, it was “a mistake” for Harper to accept gifts, including a signed Mark Messier hockey jersey and a case of the cold remedy, MacDermid noted. “Good heavens, it is so obvious. No representative of the people should be accepting gifts from companies that have the intention of lobbying. They didn’t even register. He should have said ‘No, I can’t take that.’”

http://pushedleft.blogspot.ca/2011/01/did-you-ever-wonder-how-don-cherry.html
.
.
.
.

#81 Oceanside on 11.23.12 at 3:06 am

The unfortunately misnamed “Devil’s Advocate” has teased long-time readers at least twice in the last few years about going away. Fear not! His excruciatingly long-winded posts, sans contractions, will soon bless our screens again.
———————————————————————
Just scroll through them….It’s likely what most do….

#82 Soylent Green is People on 11.23.12 at 3:06 am

But that’s not the story. Or at least not all of it.
Dr. Jacqueline Shan, president of CV Technologies, Inc. of Edmonton, accompanied by hockey commentator Don Cherry, a paid company spokesman, met with about 20 Tory MPs, including several cabinet ministers, in the exclusive Parliamentary Dining Room in the Centre Block on Parliament Hill. Shan and Cherry later met directly with Harper in his Parliament Hill office. The company hired Cherry in 2004, specifically to promote sales of the product. They were invited to the capital by James Rajotte, chairman of the Commons industry committee and Tory MP for the corporate president’s Edmonton-Leduc riding.

Last week, the company received a critical regulatory ruling – worth untold millions – from Health Canada, allowing it to claim in advertising that COLD-fx reduces “the frequency, severity and duration of cold and flu symptoms by boosting the immune system.”
This resulted in a one-day increase in total market value of $155,288,259. One hundred and fifty five million dollars in one day. That’s nothing to sneeze at, pardon the pun. And all it cost them was a hockey jersey and a box of the stuff. I wonder how much of that Cherry walked away with.

We have a government that won’t talk to us, except through carefully scripted press releases, that are now often published verbatim in our media, with no attempt to offer a balancing commentary. But Don Cherry, can sit down with 20 of them and even get a one on one with the big guy.

#83 Buy? Curious? on 11.23.12 at 5:47 am

Ah Smoking Man, Snow White’s 8th and underachieving little dwarf. You couldn’t go one day without popping your head up like those meerkats you so adored. Garth said if you didn’t behave, he’d send in Hillary Clinton. I kept my end of the bargain but I guess you love pantsuits too much. I did miss you though. You only had one post yesterday. I thought I may have rattled your cage. But you came back in fine form. Drunk and Rambling. You made multiple posts and Garth had to delete one of them. I love the way you tell stories that you over hear in the Concourse while shuffling from one liquor store to the other, filling up a discarded Starbuck Venti cup with single serving, airplane bottle of vodka and making it your own. You’re selling a $1.2 million bit of code that you copied from Google to some turnip? Bwahaha! Ya right! You couldn’t sell yourself out of a wet paper bag.

Keep drinking and posting, Smokey. With your over-exaggerated stories that are booze induced and self-affirming tales of douche-baggery, you are the undisputed punchline of this blog.

And here I thought you said I needed you. The tables have turned, Turd. It is YOU that needs ME!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggcsqjMiyQQ&feature=fvwrel

#84 Buy? Curious? on 11.23.12 at 5:50 am

Oh, and in my previous post, if you watch the link, replace the word “Baby” with “Smokey” but promise me you stay away from any moisturiser and/or butter.

#85 Aussie Roy on 11.23.12 at 6:23 am

Aussie Update

“Instead of publishing average or median prices, many boards are spoon-feeding local media an index which dices, slices, chops and whips data until it’s an unrecognizable pabulum of meaninglessness. Now consumers have no clear idea if the market’s expanding or contracting, if prices are sticky or sliding, or sellers are bullish or capitulating”.

Long live hedonic data adjustment – lol.

But there is no escaping, the truth…

This videos shows the on the ground affect of people that stop spending money because they have too much debt in residential property.

http://vimeo.com/36881999#

More videos at http://vimeo.com/user9486354/videos

#86 Bill McMullin on 11.23.12 at 7:33 am

In response to #70 by tedfiftyfour on 11.23.12 at 1:56 am:

You are correct, there are regulations in every province prohibiting licensed agents from ‘advertising’ certain information, such as dates and sold prices without the consent of the owner. I don’t agree with the rules, but we (ViewPoint) follow them by requiring users to register on our site.

There’s a difference between advertising and sharing information with specific individuals. Advertising is one-to-many (like in the newspaper) while sharing is one-to-one. This issue was central to the trial between the Competition Bureau and TREB. TREB was trying to argue that they couldn’t give members access to the sold data because members would put it on the Internet and that would be against the rules. Seems TREB saw themselves in the crime prevention business, which isn’t in their mandate. TREB isn’t even regulated and they don’t need to be since their members are.

ViewPoint, for example, doesn’t advertise sold prices and days on market. We share it with registered customers of our brokerage. Since we do it online and it’s easy and free, some people (mostly agents) think it’s wrong. Based on the volume of registered users, usage and feedback the court of public opinion has clearly ruled in favor of transparency. One of the most interesting conflicts-of-interest that I’ve seen over the last three years is the one faced by home sellers, who often are also home buyers. Sellers often don’t like that the information is ‘out there’ yet they want the same kinds of information as a buyer. Certainly there are individuals that want to leech but not seed, however, it’s clear that the majority see the importance of seeding/transparency.

#87 Frank on 11.23.12 at 8:02 am

The RE boards are not lying or misleading, it is the way that the stats are used, you can say year over year or month over month. Of course month over month is a bigger drop in price, compared to year over year. The consumer knows the data and should be able to figure it out.

#88 Teacher on 11.23.12 at 8:04 am

Smoking Man!

You seem well versed with the term sex and travel. Yea that’s right. GET LOST!

I see you complaining about Buy/ Curious and his multiple references to the monkey/meerkats video. May I suggest you watch it again? Maybe watch it again and again. There is a large majority of us out here in the real world who are pulling for ya man. We are all hoping you may actually get it!

Your drunken delusional postings are not informative, not funny, not even mildly entertaining.

Oh by the way, please understand every time you post the sound of stupid just keeps getting louder.

#89 maxx on 11.23.12 at 8:26 am

“In an attempt to cool down the market, the federal government has severely affected the building and development industry in the GTA,” says spokesman Bryan Tuckey. “The introduction of stricter mortgage regulations has triggered a decline in new home sales, and if this trend continues, it will affect job creation in the coming years, restricting economic growth.”

Oh, the sky is falling!
Every RE “spokesperson” regurgitates this tired, soporific, broken-record threat to jobs and the economy. Government is well aware of RE and supporting industries’ self-interested threats, à la, “we’re too important and big to fail” or, “if something happens to us….watch out!!”, blah, blah.

It’s about time for more and stricter rule changes:
Interest rates ought to be slowly raised by 10 basis points per quarter until normal levels are returned. This allows for 2.5 years per percentage point, thereby allowing everyone ample time to adjust. Most homeowners will survive if they can balance their budgets. If they cannot, they were doomed to fail sooner or later anyway.

As for the RE cartel, there is a huge disconnect between services offered and money earned. The high performers will survive and dilettantes fade away.

Bringing back the real economy and savings, hand-in-hand with re-profiling the RE sector will put Canada in a much stronger position for future generations.

It remains to be seen whether government has the intestinal fortitude to take this next step, shrug off industry palaver and implement a small-dose strategy.

As for those RE “stats”, they are nothing more than pure, manipulative, processed and canned remarks. No one should place their life’s effort on the shoulders of such disrespectful BS.

#90 Steven Rowlandson on 11.23.12 at 8:39 am

“Canadian housing is an inflated and dangerous asset class. But don’t expect to hear that from the local Re/Max guy.” Absolutely correct Garth.

“After all, it’s a great time to buy.” Wrong! It is a great time to wait until the housing bubble deflates and that process has barely started. You don’t get too close to a freshly shot animal until you know it is dead. The real estate monster might be wounded but it is still alive and still capable of financially killing people.

#91 Sydneysider on 11.23.12 at 8:50 am

#33 T.O. Bubble Boy and Garth

Thanks for the links/clarification.

So there was a May-Oct price drop of:
5.5% in 2011
9.4% in 2012
in the 416 region.

So, TREB data are completely inconsistent with Teranet data, which appears to use a more rigorous statistical method.

#92 Nukester99 on 11.23.12 at 9:04 am

Just got my favourite piece of mail from MPAC. Assessment shows my house has gone up a whopping .45% in 4 years. The rest of my area has seen a .52% decrease in those four years. I am wondering what happened to the MASSIVE price increases that I read about? Fortunately I probably won’t experience the massive fall in prices either. Stable prices, nice area where people can still afford to buy a house and all within an hour of TO. Of course I would never want to commute to that hell hole as it takes forever apparently. There is the GO train for those that insist. Not every area in the GTA is priced insanely, but I don’t want people moving here, it is our little secret. Yep, housing at around 3X family income can be found still.

#93 Cory on 11.23.12 at 9:19 am

#56 Interesting Times

The same post over and over again. Enough already!

#94 Canuck Abroad on 11.23.12 at 9:25 am

Another mystery house. 265 Castlefield Ave Toronto. $997k. Be sure to check out the multimedia tour etc.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12505990&PidKey=-114321760

And yet this same house was listed with furniture, snow and different flooring for $899k, not sure when.

https://www.city-blast.com/listing/view/537
and
http://www.gtatour.ca/298/1/gallery.htm

So, realtors, what I would like to know is: Was this house listed but it didn’t sell and the owners changed the flooring, moved out and re-listed? If so why didn’t it sell? Or, did this house sell for $899k and then the buyers changed the flooring, painted and are trying to flip it it for less than a hundred grand more? By the time they accept a reduced price and then pay all the transaction costs plus decorating costs, seems like a lot of effort for little/no money. Might not even break even.

So maybe the realtors are out there thinking its none of my business, but if I were to shell out a million for this place that is exactly the sort of warts and all I want to know. Definitely need more disclosure and transparency in Canada.

#95 SKRenter on 11.23.12 at 9:35 am

Hi Garth,

I find it interesting that this Association of Regina Realtors Weekly Market Activity Report, has not been updated in over a month. If i remember correctly it is usually quite timely in its updates.

http://www.reginarealtors.com/images/trendline/weekly_activity_reports/2012/regina_wma_2012-10-22.pdf

#96 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.23.12 at 9:39 am

@ #34 debtors_winners on 11.22.12 at 11:12 pm
/18 months later, and prices up less than 1%/

I wish it would be true. But this one gained almost 8% for 12 months: http://www.torontomls.net/PublicWeb/CL_CF.asp?link_no=46284422.099800&t=l&fm=M

and it’s a really ugly one: very dark inside with backyard facing a rear wall of recently build shopping plaza (can you imagine those garbage bins in summer time next to your backyard fence). By no means it can be considered as a great location, who is buying this? What’s a motivation? Affordability?! – average income in that area is $118,000. According to re agent buyer put 25% down.
———————

I don’t understand the relevance… of course some houses are up, and others are down, some bought with 5% down, others paid in cash – I was commenting on the average price for the entire GTA.

#97 Smoking Man on 11.23.12 at 9:47 am

Buy Courious the torch is now yours you won.

#98 housedoc on 11.23.12 at 10:15 am

That F guy is so funny! Saw him on CBC (Comedy By Canadians)
Some “froth” in Toronto and Vancouver…”market moderating”……”we avoided a bubble”……omg stop, you’re killing me!

#99 :) :( Ying Yang on 11.23.12 at 10:26 am

When I purchased my home it was for one reason only! A dwelling that was comfortable in which to raise a family and live without worrying about some gang banger or crack head indiscriminately blowing my head off for whatever means so they can go about being evil. For all or those who invest in the housing as a way to make your fortune, good luck! Prices are always in flux, just like the ebbs and tides in the ocean. In my area Halton (Oakville) our prices have continued to rise. Are sales slowing sure. Up in the north end of Halton slowing down for sure but long term good investment for the young ones who want to raise a family in a safe environment. Anyways for those who continue to think their home is a cash crop for get it. Make your fortune in other investments.

Deffinition of Home

Noun: The place where one lives permanently, esp. as a member of a family or household.

Adjective: Of or relating to the place where one lives: “your home address”

Adverb: To the place where one lives: “what time did he get home last night?”.

Verb: (of an animal) Return by instinct to its territory after leaving it: “geese homing to their summer nesting grounds”.
Synonyms:
noun. house – residence – dwelling – abode – habitation- domicile
adjective. domestic – native
adverb. homewards – at home – indoors

“When I purchased my home it was for one reason only! A dwelling that was comfortable in which to raise a family and live without worrying about some gang banger or crack head indiscriminately blowing my head off for whatever means so they can go about being evil.” You make me happy not to live in Oakville. — Garth

#100 TO Guy on 11.23.12 at 10:30 am

As the old saying goes… there are liars, darn liar, and statistics…. I do agree somewhat with your idea of people knowing but at the same time as another old saying goes…. little knowledge is a very dangerous thing as many of us know…
As an IT professional, I see this every day…. someone reads something on the internet and suddenly they know… they know everything… and many times I cannot help but to shake my head … thinking… you darn dummy you don’t even know what you don’t know… if you know what I mean. The biggest thing is that sure we can have those numbers available to people but then people “become” that much smarter that they start doing things which are not so good… we all know a smart ass guy who is trying to fix a computer and ends up doing a mess of things which end up costing much more, etc.

I believe that available data is a good thing but at the same time encouraging people to act on their own in such a big purchase is very foolish… it’s like telling a person, hey read a book or two and then go and defend yourself in court…. utter foolishness to even attempt it. I see the same in RE business, you have many businesses selling your signs for few hundred dollars and telling you, sure go ahead and sell it by yourself… go ahead… soon we will have companies selling people a book or two and telling them how to defend themselves in courts, how to heal ourselves… etc. That is good business model since you sell a lot of materials but bear no liability or responsibility for what is being done. I truly think that this is just one big madness and very irresponsible. There is reason why there are certain things you cannot do yourselves but you need a licensed professional. It is to prevent yourself from creating a mess, and causing other people problems too… there is nothing more costly then dealing with an amateur… in any business. I cannot imagine why anyone would get involved in a purchase of a home with a for sale by owner… when I was buying my own place. I looked at few… For Sale By Owner.. and in one particular case. We asked if the house was in a good shape… any problems…. the basement was just done… the guy said.. no problems…everything was nice and dandy… he said that the basement was just done… a month or two before listing… my brother how in an industrial electrician.. has very expensive equipment that will show moisture/water/etc.. on the walls… and behind them… the whole basement lit up like a Christmas tree.. there was so much water behind that drywall… and we asked the guy about it… he lied to my face… then we showed him what we saw… and I said to him.. you know what.. I’m going to buy this from you.. and I’m going to sue the crap out of him… just to make some extra money…. not until then did he admit that the house got flooded few months before and that there was some serious mold, and that it was cheaper to make drywall then to fix it properly…. and that is an amateur trying to sell you stuff… to this very day I’m puzzled but this man’s thinking… what was he thinking that this will just go unnoticed? Even if I did not have access to this equipment, few moths later I would have see it on the wall and …. of course he would have been sued …. when there is so much money on the line, no one tells you.. don’t worry about it…. people I tell ya… anyways. It gets my blood boiling every time I hear about amateur trying to do something.. IT, RE… anything… I just run the other way.

The scary thing is that people fall for it so easily… everyone thinks they can do it.. it’s like saying I do my house budget therefore I can do accounting at the same level a CA accountant can.. I think the real issue is how do we keep those guys more accountable and more honest… but giving more “tools” to people to do it themselves… very risky for buyers and sellers… I used to work for a law firm that did real estate law.. and many law suites were directed at people who sold it themselves… some of the cases were just ridiculous… they should have never happened. My word of advise to anyone is don’t try to do something you have no idea at doing… if it takes people years of schooling and years of experience to do a good job… what on earth let’s you think you can do it by reading one or two books and you can do it better? …. let professionals handle it.. but at the same time find a good reliable, honest professional… as in any business, there are good bad and just plain ugly… but it looks like more and more professions are going astray… not just RE. That is very sad that our society has become so exploitative… where running business means exploiting people and their resources… very unfortunate…. and if that continues… it will lead us nowhere good as a society. If the peoples’ trust faints, the whole thing will fall apart.. and you start seeing that already that people want to do less and less with anyone or anything but that is totally understandable. I think this is not just an issue of RE but our society is becoming more and more disillusioned and is getting out of touch. Very sad….

Have a great day…

#101 excellent on 11.23.12 at 10:30 am

Trouble at Toronto’s Trump Tower:

“Since the hotel opened in March, it has had lower-than-touted hotel occupancy, discounted room rates and a growing tide of investors trying to renege on deals set to close Nov. 29…

“It was an absolute shock to us to find out that these buyers were of limited means. They, like everyone else, were riding the boom in the condo market and took comfort in the Trump name.”…

Plaintiffs Ilsan Kim, 27, and Michelle Park, 35, hadn’t bought real estate before, the suit says. Husband and wife Nahm-Hee Park, 55, and Soon Keon, 53, took money from the sale of their convenience store and bought two $700,000 units which buyers were assured would not only appreciate in value, but produce far more income from nightly stays than the monthly maintenance fees, taxes and other incidentals charged to owners.”

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1291256–trump-talon-international-focus-of-2-7-million-lawsuit-by-investors

#102 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.23.12 at 10:41 am

I will say this about the HPI “Frankenumber”: the concept of trying to account for renovations/re-builds is worthwhile — I see almost no MSM coverage on the mix of house types, average price/sqft, etc.

If I look around the core GTA (416), the average house of 30 or 50 years ago (a bungalow or small 3-bdrm 2-storey) has been either torn down or expanded via an addition, dug-out basement, etc.

So, a property with a small 1200 sqft bungalow that is purchased for $750k, torn down, and replaced with a 3000 sqft McMansion that sells for $1.5M didn’t really double in value — it actually went DOWN in terms of price per sqft (and that is after putting in $500k+ to build the new place).

However, in the “average price” stats — this is not accounted for. And, based on what I see, the HPI skews this even further from reality… if HPI keeps going up in places like Vancouver while average prices go down, this *should* mean than average sqft per house is going down as well… but this is hardly the case, especially in the high-end neighbourhoods.

#103 White Rock Mom on 11.23.12 at 10:43 am

Patiently Waiting, that is very interesting information! Thank you for sharing,
Mom

#104 CalgaryRocks on 11.23.12 at 10:48 am

This is going to anger Quebec big time, and make Albertans look like stupid rednecks too, which I guess, will be a win, win for the people that produced it as they will get lots of free advertising when it’s aired on December 9th.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LpDRg7TLY8c

#105 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.23.12 at 10:48 am

@ #93 Canuck Abroad on 11.23.12 at 9:25 am
Another mystery house. 265 Castlefield Ave Toronto. $997k. Be sure to check out the multimedia tour etc.

And yet this same house was listed with furniture, snow and different flooring for $899k, not sure when.
_____________________

Google this:
“265 Castlefield” site:guava.ca

You’ll find that it was February 7th, 2012:

7 Feb 2012 – C2280020 – M4R – 265 CASTLEFIELD AVE Toronto, Ontario – $899,900

Apparently they magically added $97k in value (over 10%) in 9 months.

The stupid part of this — if the property was in fact purchase in February, and they paid 5% in realtor fees + land transfer tax of over 3%, plus other closing costs, they’ve made exactly $0 (assuming that they sell at 100% of the new price, which is not likely).

(what bubble?)

#106 live within your means on 11.23.12 at 10:53 am

#80 Soylent Green is People on 11.23.12 at 3:06 am

We have a government that won’t talk to us, except through carefully scripted press releases, that are now often published verbatim in our media, with no attempt to offer a balancing commentary. But Don Cherry, can sit down with 20 of them and even get a one on one with the big guy.

………..

Totally agree. Have read her blogs before. She’s an awesome investigative blogger, IMHO.

So sad that so many Canadians are more concerned about which team will win the Grey Cup or rush to stores today – Black Friday – to buy something they could have bought in Sept. for the same price. Yet, they won’t take the time to read about some of the trade deals (e.g China & EU) that this govt. is negotiating &, from what I have read, could screw Canadians for 30+ years. Correct me if I’m wrong.

Was planning on returning a couple of items today. But as we’ve adopted Black Friday, I’ll wait.

My Xmas gift will be a certain Kyocera knife which I’ll order on line. DH doesn’t want anything, but I’ll buy him his fav. Scotch – Glenmorangie.

#107 Gunboat denier on 11.23.12 at 10:58 am

Derek (first!!)

Dont forget:

Why does Garth hate GICs?

Garth doesnt hate GICs. He hates low yield, illiquid, tax inefficient investments.

#108 Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 11.23.12 at 11:20 am

excellent on 11.23.12 at 10:30 am
Trouble at Toronto’s Trump Tower:

“Since the hotel opened in March, it has had lower-than-touted hotel occupancy, discounted room rates and a growing tide of investors trying to renege on deals set to close Nov. 29…

“It was an absolute shock to us to find out that these buyers were of limited means. They, like everyone else, were riding the boom in the condo market and took comfort in the Trump name.”…

Plaintiffs Ilsan Kim, 27, and Michelle Park, 35, hadn’t bought real estate before, the suit says. Husband and wife Nahm-Hee Park, 55, and Soon Keon, 53, took money from the sale of their convenience store and bought two $700,000 units which buyers were assured would not only appreciate in value, but produce far more income from nightly stays than the monthly maintenance fees, taxes and other incidentals charged to owners.”

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1291256–trump-talon-international-focus-of-2-7-million-lawsuit-by-investors
—————————————————————–

Just another group of people who got scammed by the RE industry as a whole. The house of cards is falling apart. It’s going to be a NASTY crash realtors, a NASTY CRASH!

#109 Rene on 11.23.12 at 11:25 am

“After fees, sellers received only 85% of original list price. Ugly.”

The saying “You’re richer than you think” will soon be replaced by “You’re 85% as rich as you thought.”

#110 Ralph Cramdown on 11.23.12 at 11:27 am

“Access to other information, such as the true inflation rate and the true level of unemployment, is also restricted. The official figures are obvious lies.”

Yet they correlate quite well with third party estimates, e.g. MIT’s billion prices index: http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/
It’s a conspiracy, all right. And everyone’s in on it but YOU!

#111 :) :( Ying Yang on 11.23.12 at 11:27 am

” You make me happy not to live in Oakville. — Garth
Not sure what you were eluding to Garth?

Halton continues to be the Safest Regional Municipality in Canada

Release Date: Dec 15, 2011

For the fourth year in a row, Maclean’s magazine has named Halton Region the Safest Place to live in the Greater Toronto Area and the Safest Regional Municipality in Canada.

Maclean’s based its ranking on 2010 annual crime data from Statistics Canada for municipal police services serving the nation’s 100 largest populations. The Crime Severity Index (CSI) scores six personal and property crimes: homicide, sexual assault, aggravated assault, auto theft, robbery and breaking and entering.

“This achievement is the result of our residents, businesses and local municipalities, working together with the great police officers and staff of the Halton Regional Police Service, to ensure Halton Region is a safe place to live, work, raise a family and retire,” said Regional Chair Gary Carr. “Our record as the Safest Region in Canada is one of the reasons that so many people and businesses choose to call Halton home. I want to thank everyone who continues to do their part to prevent crime in our Region because it is only by working together that we can continue to build a better, safer community.”

Halton Region has partnered with the Halton Regional Police Service to undertake several key programs to support safety in our community. Those programs include Speedi, Halton Community Road Watch, Drive SAFE and in November, two new Vehicle Activated Traffic Calming Signs were added to Halton’s Road Safety Programs. Other community safety programs include D.A.R.E. – Drug Abuse Resistance Education – targeted to 6th grade students that provides them with a decision-making model to assist them in making positive choices, and Motive8 a follow-up program to D.A.R.E. that addresses drug abuse prevention at the Grade 8 level.

For more information on Halton Region’s road safety programs, residents can visit http://www.halton.ca/drivesafe and http://www.haltonroadwatch.ca. More information about Halton Regional Police Service programs can be found at http://www.hrps.on.ca.

The Regional Municipality of Halton serves more than 500,000 residents in the City of Burlington, the Town of Halton Hills, the Town of Milton, and the Town of Oakville.

#112 Canuck Abroad on 11.23.12 at 11:49 am

99 Old Guy – so the bottom line is we should trust the professionals, not only real estate professionals, but all other professionals as well. And never buy a for-sale-by-owner house.

I don’t see any problem with buying a for-sale-by-owner house myself, but the key thing is to survey it and inspect it and don’t be cheap about this. And you can always get your lawyer (if you trust him) to recommend survey professionals that will do a thorough job. As long as you remember “caveat emptor” and never trust the seller. Ever.

But sadly, you can’t always trust the lawyer either…

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/1290124–law-society-disbars-veteran-real-estate-lawyer-for-assisting-in-sham-deals

So, maybe you just might not want to trust your lawyer…

And of course it is a proven fact that all banksters are thieving sociopaths who would lie to your face to steal a nickel, so you can’t trust them either.

And of course there is Jean Claude Junker who said “when it becomes serious, you have to lie”. So, you can’t trust politicians either (but we already knew that).

So who can you trust? Priests? Pfffft.

So I would take the other side of your argument and say trust nobody, get independent advice on each component of the transaction and assume everyone is out to make a dime off of you and cheat you if possible. Be ready to sue if you have to. Therefore it is essential that you arm yourself with as much information as you can. Good reliable professionals are done like dinosaurs.

#113 Toronto_CA on 11.23.12 at 11:49 am

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/11/02/housing-slump-flaherty-mortgage-rules_n_2051709.html

Interesting article, although it curiously omits blaming Flarper for bringing in the 0-down 40 year interest only cash back etc mortgages in the damn first place.

#114 Toronto_CA on 11.23.12 at 11:51 am

#110 :) :( Ying Yang on 11.23.12 at 11:27 am

I think Garth is just happy not to be your neighbour, given your paranoia about being killed by gun violence and this driving your need to purchase granite. From your own words:

“When I purchased my home it was for one reason only! A dwelling that was comfortable in which to raise a family and live without worrying about some gang banger or crack head indiscriminately blowing my head off for whatever means so they can go about being evil.”

#115 Canadian Watchdog on 11.23.12 at 12:25 pm

#109 Ralph Cramdown

BPP got the rug pulled from beneath them last year when their index started diverging from official global CPI indices. Then they received ‘the call’ and weeks later the entire site was was shut down and relaunced.

BPP-CPI Spread Widening

Keep in mind, when interest rates are at ZLB, the inflation rate becomes a de facto interest rate variable.

#116 daystar on 11.23.12 at 12:31 pm

#71 tedfiftyfour on 11.23.12 at 1:56 am

What exactly did your copy paste you couldn’t spare a link to have to do with Garth’s piece on disclosure today, namely relisted prices, price history, days on market and the MLS home price index?

Oh… nothing.

What do your insults directed towards the host of this blog and its participants have to do with character flaws and personal issues of your own?

Oh… everything.

Can you do the world never mind us minions a favor and finish off your self projection by dealing with your own ignorance through self correcting your own mis-information? This link should help you along your journey should you ever grow a pair:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narcissistic_personality_disorder

#117 daystar on 11.23.12 at 12:55 pm

#85 Bill McMullin on 11.23.12 at 7:33 am

You are correct, there are regulations in every province prohibiting licensed agents from ‘advertising’ certain information

Hi Bill. Can you provide some links for us that detail for readers what these regulations are by chance federally and provincially? I could find it with time but I don’t have the time today and I’m asking because its likely on your favorites in your browser and its a simple copy paste readers might take interest in if you can spare the time. Thanks in advance, Bill.

#118 Bottoms_Up on 11.23.12 at 12:58 pm

#76 SilverMeridian on 11.23.12 at 2:24 am
———————————————-
Price reductions are now becoming the normal for Ottawa listings.

Someone could probably make a lot of money actually REPORTING on the data (as you did), rather than SPINNING it.

They take us for sheeple. It’s sad really. Really, really, sad.

#119 Jimbo on 11.23.12 at 1:04 pm

As long as there is information asymmetry realtors will have the upper hand. This inevitably leads to one party taking advantage over another.

I guess at the end of the day, a house is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it.

#120 squidly77 on 11.23.12 at 1:08 pm

#61 Brad in Cowtown on 11.23.12 at 12:45 am

Squid, you would be absolutely hilarious if you weren’t so sad. Picking the ALL TIME Calgary high as a starting point for your analysis? Gee, that’s convenient. An all-time high that just happened to peak right before a global financial meltdown. And Calgary is still only down 50k from that all time high. It’s the most affordable city in Canada. Prices and sales soared last month. Income is rising. Net migration continues to be positive, so people love living here. And the economy here is the envy of the nation. Absolutely zero reasons for prices to fall, and no indication of that changing any time soon. It’s no coincidence Garth rarely refers to Calgary anymore. Because he knows the evidence only supports his theories in other markets.

There’s a reason why its called realtor speak. its inaccurate, emotional and just plain dumb.

Calgary home prices peaked in May of 2007.
Stock markets completed their crash in March of 2009, 21 months after Calgary’s real estate prices plummeted.
Calgary home sales are 40% below their 2007 levels.
Calgary home prices are 10-15% less, at least than 2007.
Calgary’s unemployment rate is 40% higher now than it was in 2007.

Lastly I know that your feelings are easily hurt Brad, but begging for some sort of an apology to make you feel much better will likely never come.

Brad, perhaps you should brighten your spirits and lead a charge by convincing the real estate to adopt the following song as their official anthem. Proposed new anthem for the REIC

Now that my son would be a worthy cause. Get at er Cowboy. Yee Ha !!

#121 In The Doghouse on 11.23.12 at 1:14 pm

One of my relatives ( 83 yrs old ) has decided to downgrade from a two BR , two bath , 1300 sq ft apartment, ( 3rd floor)to a one BR , 900 sq ft( 4th floor , top of Bld) that just came up in the building . The one BR needed new carpets , complete painting , had some holes in the wall( about $500 to Paint & repair according to Realturd ), and has had no upgrading in its 22 yr life . The two BR is turn key ,with many upgrades . The one BR has water damage on the tiles & gyprock in the bathroom. This was, as explained by the realturd, caused by the steam from the shower and would only cost a few hundred to repair . REALLY ????? Steam from the shower ????. I did some digging on the MLS , to look at comparables for the age of the Bld, Sq Ft, and area . One BR, $80- $109,000. Two BR , $139-$179,000. Realturd appraised valu of the one BR for sale in the BLD ,$119,000 ???? Realturd appraisel for the two BR in the same BLD , $128.000 ???. My advice to the relative … RUN GUMP, RUN , RUN LIKE THE WIND GUMP .To all you REALTURDS out there , This is exactly why you are regarded as lower than lawyers & used car salesmen !!! SHAME ON YOU !!!!!

#122 :( :) Yink Yang on 11.23.12 at 1:25 pm

#113 Toronto_CA on 11.23.12 at 11:51 am
It was a perhaps too drastic a term to use perhaps a better euphemism would have sufficed. As far as paranoia I was trying to elate to the fact that most home purchasers including myself look for a nice clean safe neighborhood in which to raise your family. There are certain areas in the city and even out here in 905 land that are sketchy. By the way did live in Suburban Detroit years ago so when I came here looked at the safest places to let my children grow up and Oakville was it.

#123 squidly77 on 11.23.12 at 1:40 pm

Oh yes Brad, before I forget, aren’t Oil prices down 45% from their peak and Nat Gas prices down 78% from their peak levels. Damn, I’m sure I read a blog once where the blog author predicted that out come.

Hey Brad, can you name the next upcoming mega-project thats on tap for Alberta ? It seems that Suncor Voyageur has been shelved till at least 2015 and that includes the Fort Hill (Total) mine, the NW upgrader wont see much activity if any until CNRL Horizon gets their new Coker unit up and running which is at least 2 years away as we are currently only at the modular building stage.

The CNOOC bid to buy Nexen will work out great for Nexen if it happens, however despite what the Chinese say, the Nexen building in DT Calgary will go dark shortly after.

By the way Brad have you checked out the performance of alberta’s heavy Oil companies since Oct 2008. Here, Ill do it for you.
Suncor down 60%
CNRL down 50%
Nexen down 40% would be more of not for CNOOC
Canadian Oil sands Trust down 65%
Connacher Oil and Gas down 95%-They have 2 large plants

So as you can see Brad, the above list takes care of Suncor, Syncrude, Nexen, CNRL and Connacher. there’s still money to be made buying and selling these stocks if you know what your doing.

How ever Brad, despite what you see on the tee-vee or read in the MSM large capitol expenditures up in the tar pits are highly unlikely anytime soon.

And as the tarpits go, so goes Alberta.

#124 Humpty Dumpty on 11.23.12 at 1:54 pm

Then there’s Faberdata….

http://www.calibratedconfidence.com/2012/11/marc-fabers-economic-charts.html

“There are two way to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by the sword. The other is debt”
John Adams

#125 Herb on 11.23.12 at 1:57 pm

Imagine if we had truth in advertising. Enforced by law. Why, we’d be able to make informed decisions in politics, real estate and most other things.

Unthinkable! The economy and politics would come to a shuddering halt. Or would they?

#126 squidly77 on 11.23.12 at 2:04 pm

You see Brad, you only (kind of) understand whats happening today, where as I can tell you what will happen in Alberta for the months and years ahead.

My predictions are not rife with maybe’s and emotion and are certainly not said in the hope of benefiting my personal financial standing, they are said with honesty and with the hope of spreading what I know to assist others in making the choices that are best for them. I don’t always get it right, however, I have been much more right than wrong. Brad.

Is that not what blogs are all about ?

#127 Old Man on 11.23.12 at 2:29 pm

#122 Yink Yang – I have fond memories of Oakville, as it was indeed a safe haven. Anytime a married woman wanted an affair she would say lets go to Oakville as the people who live there are clueless about this sort of thing.

#128 Bottoms_Up on 11.23.12 at 2:34 pm

#107 Gunboat denier on 11.23.12 at 10:58 am
———————————————–
An addendum to your defn: “And GICs just happen to check all those boxes.”

#129 Alex on 11.23.12 at 2:39 pm

Based on a quick google search there are approximately 100 real estate boards in Canada and since each board manages the board MLS system we therefore have 100 MLS’s across the country. It’s interesting that the Nova Scotia Boards are the only boards that allow a site like viewpoint.ca to exist. What exactly are the local real estate boards worried about?

#130 Alex on 11.23.12 at 2:44 pm

DA, question — do you know how much it costs to run your beloved CREA and what exactly is it that they do for you besides the realtor.ca site?

#131 Just Park It on 11.23.12 at 2:46 pm

off topic (sorry Garth) – I noticed in your blog that Buy?Curious? and Smokin Man seem to share constant jabs at each other… why ?

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, if I say the market is stable – big deal (though I believe it’s high time to resort back to a normal price range). What makes this blog interesting (most times) is the wide variety of idea’s and thoughts shared by Canadians across this great country – we need more people who are in the trenches to respond (construction workers – material handlers ….) they surely can confirm what is actually happening.

Buy? – actually I am curious – why so angry at Smokin Man – you’re writing is very interesting – you have some awesome zingers…

#132 Derek R on 11.23.12 at 2:48 pm

#107 Gunboat denier on 11.23.12 at 10:58 am wrote:
Dont forget:

Why does Garth hate GICs?

Garth doesnt hate GICs. He hates low yield, illiquid, tax inefficient investments.

Good point, GD! I’ll put it in there.

Cheers.

#133 Brad in Calgary on 11.23.12 at 2:48 pm

#126 squidly77
Is that not what blogs are all about ?

Funny you should ask such a question. I thought blogs were public areas for sharing of thoughts, facts, ideas etc. So readers can obtain a different perspective from the biased mainstream media. Not only is your blog the most biased, and factually incorrect, blog ever issued a domain name, it isn’t even public anymore – perhaps you’d like to share with us all the reasons for that?

Didn’t think so.

So you don’t believe my optimism about Calgary? Fair enough. The statistics are readily available and you choose to ignore them. (I won’t put a link because I think Garth gets annoyed by that) Check out Ben Rabidoux’s thoughts – he’s one of the more bearish housing analysts out there for Canada, but when speaking of Calgary specifically, he recently wrote… “Still by far the best looking metro. Little on the supply/demand front to indicate any near-term price weakness.”

And those thoughts are based on statistical EVIDENCE looking at the overall picture. Not cherry picking numbers and dates to suit an agenda like your approach.

#134 squidly77 on 11.23.12 at 2:55 pm

What a freakin mess the big smokes condo scene has become. And its about to get much worse, much worse as in that puppy going right down the crap hole. http://www.thestar.com/news/insight/article/1291778–condo-construction-delays-now-commonplace-leaving-developers-worried

As is the case up in Alberta’s Tar pits, there is no shortage of trades people available to work, none whats so ever.

There’s only a shortage of trades people that will work for SFA (use your imagination) and live in crap accommodations.

#135 TheBigLebowski on 11.23.12 at 3:00 pm

DM in c
Pavlly
Squidly77
How dumb do you guys feel now since November 2nd? It is reassuring to have 99% of the population without the ability to critically think for themselves. Makes me sleep well knowing its not a crowded trade.

#136 whibur on 11.23.12 at 3:10 pm

Interesting Site; That follows the price drop in the Vancouver area.

http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/

#137 TRT on 11.23.12 at 3:17 pm

#69 Pretzels

More like balanced. I leave emotions out of RE.

Do you?

#138 Patiently Waiting on 11.23.12 at 3:29 pm

Fraser Valley Real Estate Board STATS – as of November 23, 2012 15 of 21 Working Days
(Note that Year over Year Sales are down 20% in the Fraser Valley, yet no media story to inform the sheeple)

NOVEMBER 2012 Listings 1297 Sales 659
OCTOBER 2012 Listings 1901 Sales 746
NOVEMBER 2011 Listings 1569 Sales 826

#139 Seymour Butts on 11.23.12 at 3:44 pm

Garth,
Good article, but you are still fired.
-S Harper

#140 Patiently Waiting on 11.23.12 at 4:05 pm

Here are some of the home price reductions in the White Rock / South Surrey area. Note that the price reductions and “days on Market” in many cases are significantly understated (or at times price reductions not shown at all), as they are hidden due to standard realtor practice of cancelling listings and putting on the market again as a new listing. Clearly the market in this area is dying a slow death even the though many sheeple are still unaware of what is going on as they are spoon fed msm ads and kept in the dark by the realtor secret society . . . my expectation for this market area is continued price declines of several hundred thousand over the next 12 to 24 months . . . and this is without any interest rate increases . . .

http://mlslink.mlxchange.com/DotNet/Pub/EmailView.aspx?r=13374868&s=BRC&t=BRC

Cheers

pw

#141 bruce c on 11.23.12 at 4:15 pm

We just did a stupid thin a few months back and now we have no idea what to do. We purchased a home in Mississauga for 645,000. We bought with no condition to sale as per our agent. He told us it would sell within 96% of asking within 30 to 60 days. its now 60 days and we close in 15 days. Our home has had no offers and we dropped price from 625000 to 595,000. It now seems we have to go to 550K. Is there anything we can do?

#142 Old Man on 11.23.12 at 4:16 pm

# 139 Seymour Butts – who is S Harper? This sounds like a sissy boy who plays a harp or piano thinking he is a rock star.

#143 squidly77 on 11.23.12 at 4:21 pm

http://www.joesamson.com/images/creb_residential_inventory_and_sales_581.gif

Sales sure look down to me. Take it up with CREB if you disagree.

#144 Mike in Surrey on 11.23.12 at 4:25 pm

#138 Patiently Waiting
Fraser Valley Real Estate Board STATS – as of November 23, 2012:
Nov 2012 Sales over New List 659/1297=51%
Nov 2011 Sales over New List 826/1569=52%
Where is the difference, PW? Sales are steady, buyers are patient.

#145 Bill Gable on 11.23.12 at 4:32 pm

Mr. Turner: Apologies for being slightly off topic – but I believe the following info is very telling.

The more evidence I see of the burgeoning lineups at the Food Bank and stories in the MSM about how tough things are for people now – it makes me wonder what comes next, for housing.

It’s brutal out there – so – please pick a Charity and give what you can.

Many of our neighbours are struggling and might be too proud to look for help.

Although this is from the States – this shook me up – (*48% of Americans rely on Food stamps to put vittles on the table – HELLO!).

*[Kudos to this Safeway staff]. Merry Christmas!

>”Single mom Tina Reaves was just looking for a discount on a turkey to feed her small family on Thanksgiving Day.

With the cupboards at home mostly bare, she asked the manager at a Vancouver, Wash. Safeway store on Wednesday if there was any chance they had a turkey that was on sale.

“I said, “this is probably going to sound very strange, but I was wondering.” I said I’m a single mom of two girls and I just asked if they had a turkey that was discountable,” Reaves recalled.

Perhaps one that had been dropped or dinged up could be sold at a discount, she said to the manager.

Reaves got a turkey for Thanksgiving, all right, and a whole lot more, thanks to the generosity of the unidentified manager and employees of the store.

Instead of a discounted turkey, the manager offered her a 13-pound turkey – for free. Other employees pitched in to add rolls, soda pop, stuffing mix, vegetables, fruit, milk, gravy, pies, even a bottle of sparkling cider. The total cost was over $70.

But, like they say, that’s not all.

Employees also contributed a $10 Safeway gift card, $11 in cash and a hand-written note wishing her Happy Thanksgiving.

“To see [the manager] with a cart full of this… I was speechless,” Reaves said. “I just started crying, and he gave me the biggest hug.”

“It’s just really been a struggle,” Reaves said. “I’ve been trying to pay off bills that I can’t even afford.”

She said the family could not afford gas to drive to see relatives over the holiday.

“At first, I felt that I was really unworthy for all of this, and then after a few minutes of crying I realized that there are so many great people in the world,” Reaves said.

“I want to thank those out there who really helped us today with all the stuff,” Reaves young daughter Jaden said.

The Safeway manager and employees did not have permission to discuss their good deed with KATU News.

Reaves said the donated food is “more than enough” and she plans to donate some of it to a local food bank. “Now we have so much to be thankful for, really, and to come together and to celebrate it together is amazing,” she said.

“It was really amazing that people care so much for someone they don’t even know,” Reaves said.

http://tinyurl.com/bf9dsls

#146 Derek R on 11.23.12 at 4:36 pm

#141 bruce c on 11.23.12 at 4:15 pm wrote:
We purchased a home in Mississauga for 645,000. We bought with no condition to sale as per our agent. He told us it would sell within 96% of asking within 30 to 60 days. its now 60 days and we close in 15 days.

Looks like you need to talk to your mortgage agent about a bridge loan — and fast.

#147 squidly77 on 11.23.12 at 4:40 pm

#133 Brad in Calgary on 11.23.12 at 2:48 pm

I thought blogs were public areas for sharing of thoughts, facts, ideas etc. So readers can obtain a different perspective from the biased mainstream media.

Not only is your blog the most biased, and factually incorrect, blog ever issued a domain name, it isn’t even public anymore – perhaps you’d like to share with us all the reasons for that?

They are, its just too bad that some people out there have to get personal and resort to attacking the person that sports an opinion he wishes to share with others.

Myself, when I come across a blog I don’t like or agree with, such as bullion blogs, realtor run blogs or sewing blogs I simply don’t visit that site anymore. Some of these blogs are simply someones past time as they enjoy chatting with and sharing information with others who hold similar views.

What is the point of attacking someones else’s opinion if you don’t agree with it ?

Simply move on, if the blogs crap no one will read it anyways.

#148 squidly77 on 11.23.12 at 4:45 pm

And now a slightly different Calgary sales graph.
http://www.calgaryrealestatebuyers.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/SF-Sales-YTD-Jan.jpg

We will have to wait till January 2013 to see year end 2012 totals.

#149 Mister Obvious on 11.23.12 at 4:55 pm

#141 bruce c

Yours is a disturbing story.

However, since your realtor clearly acted unethically (and is undoubtedly deeply ashamed), he/she will at least refuse all commission when your sale finally does complete.

#150 Triplenet on 11.23.12 at 4:57 pm

#121 In the Doghouse
…and you are the old relatives advisor?
There are professionals out there.
Yes, imagine, complete due diligence for one percent of purchase price.
Sheesh!

#151 Buy? Curious? on 11.23.12 at 5:02 pm

Just Park It,#131, I love Smoking Man! He’s like a shorter version of Hulk Hogan that would have trouble tearing off a t-shirt. Though, in end, he was all fart and no pooh.

Merry Christmas, everybody!

#152 Nukester99 on 11.23.12 at 5:10 pm

Another shot at Calgary taken by CP. Look like jobs and business is leaving the oil patch Capital.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/cp-to-move-most-of-calgary-head-office-to-cut-costs-source/article5605120/

#153 Mike on 11.23.12 at 5:26 pm

Thanks again Mr Turner for these hard hitting fact based blog posts.

The baffle them with BS crowd is out in full force.

This site is the lighthouse guiding those who see through the fog of mis and dis-information.

I do not wish harm on anyone and do not judge others, but I am eagerly awaiting the Karma that is inevitably headed this way. Too much ego and too much attachment to material things.

#154 Pr on 11.23.12 at 5:55 pm

realtor.ca almost lost the province of Quebec, very soon realtor.ca wil lose the entire market of quebec province. They are not a good for anyone. Turning rock to gold is there mantra.

#155 Old Man on 11.23.12 at 6:13 pm

#141 bruce c – never buy one home without a conditional clause of selling the other for a closing, or you will have a legal problem. Your agent hooped you for his commission, so you will need a bridge loan to close, and recommend in Toronto to call a lawyer by the name of Bob Aaron with Aaron & Aaron, as he has the money, and knows it all.

#156 DM in C on 11.23.12 at 6:17 pm

#135 Lebowski

WTF are you on about? Trying to stir up a goldbug takeover of a RE thread? Again?

Offside, dude.

#157 blobby on 11.23.12 at 6:23 pm

I considered writing a website which tracks mls information (time on market/price reductions/etc. But annoyingly you cant legally do it. So there’s no way for the public to get that info..

#158 Patiently Waiting on 11.23.12 at 6:47 pm

157 Blobby
I considered writing a website which tracks mls information (time on market/price reductions/etc. But annoyingly you cant legally do it. So there’s no way for the public to get that info..
—————————————————————-
I think that there is a way if you think outside the box . . . all realtors have access to this information, so what if you were a licensed member of the board, and what if that member wanted to share this information with his online registered clients . . . I think this would have to be acceptable, as it is already being done by many licensed realtors right now . . .

pw

#159 Westernman on 11.23.12 at 6:59 pm

Bottoms_Up @ # 118
The reason they take us for sheeple is because , by and large, you are sheeple. It’s proven everyday in every way and the same scams and schemes work beautifully over and over again.
No wonder they take you for sheeple – you are sheeple…

#160 Old Man on 11.23.12 at 7:03 pm

#149 Mister Obvious – this is no laughing matter as was called numerous times to become a witness for those that could not close, whereby, one lawyer would serve papers on another because the chain reaction involves expensive legal matters. Hey they called me as was a good witness, as this legal stuff involved me not.

I gave bruce c an option as years ago worked with his old man, and if the deal makes sense with equity for a bridge loan, a closing can be done in a few days fast and quickly with perfect execution because the money is there, and does not to be looked for which takes time.

#161 Patiently Waiting on 11.23.12 at 7:08 pm

#144Mike in Surrey on 11.23.12 at 4:25 pm
#138 Patiently Waiting
Fraser Valley Real Estate Board STATS – as of November 23, 2012:
Nov 2012 Sales over New List 659/1297=51%
Nov 2011 Sales over New List 826/1569=52%
Where is the difference, PW? Sales are steady, buyers are patient.
—————————————————————
I know reality hurts as sales are down 20% yoy. Look at my post #140. This is only a few of the price drops . . . no time to list them all. Many properties in the Fraser Valley have also relsted at “new prices” that are substantially lower than previous list price. Unfortunately what Flaherty & the boys have done has finally started to unwind . . . most are still hoping for a return to the days of old where prices only go up . . . but they will be sorely disappointed . . . you are doing neither yourself nor your customers any good by trying to hide the truth, as it will be self evident as the unwinding of the housing inflation / bubble picks up momentum in the spring. Better to face the reality and think about ways to profit from the inevitable rather than deny . . .

pw

#162 CalgaryRocks on 11.23.12 at 7:17 pm

#152 Nukester99 on 11.23.12 at 5:10 pm
Another shot at Calgary taken by CP. Look like jobs and business is leaving the oil patch Capital.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/cp-to-move-most-of-calgary-head-office-to-cut-costs-source/article5605120/

They’re leaving the downtown core, not the city. They’ll be in the South East of the City.

#163 Canuck Abroad on 11.23.12 at 7:25 pm

141 bruce – For next time:

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/10/21/how-to-buy/

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/12/28/how-to-buy-2/

Maybe your lawyer can advise you of your options. Surely you’re not buying without one? Good luck.

#164 Ken R on 11.23.12 at 7:31 pm

#153Mike on 11.23.12 at 5:26 pm

I do not wish harm on anyone and do not judge others, but I am eagerly awaiting the Karma that is inevitably headed this way. Too much ego and too much attachment to material things.

Bingo Mike! Well said. The HGTV faithful are chasing a dream spoon fed to them by the machine. Who the hell decided quality of life was measured in granite countertops?

#165 Mister Obvious on 11.23.12 at 7:47 pm

#160 Old Man

This is no laughing matter…”.

Quite right it is not. One way or another, a slimy realtor will escape responsibilty for manipulating naive people into a very bad position. Truth be told, it makes me sick.

The victims are appealing to this blog for help. Where is the realtor? Why is he not helping his clients? That is, implementing his backup plan (surely he had one).

Why is he not helping them to arranging bridge financing, and… I’ll say it again… forgiving commission?

#166 Canadian Watchdog on 11.23.12 at 7:50 pm

#162 CalgaryRocks

Finacial Post: One union official said the head office move was to a nearby Calgary rail yard that CP owns. Details are expected Dec 4 and 5, along with an announcement of further job cuts, when Harrison outlines his plan to improve efficiency at CP.

That’s what happens when Ackman is your biggest shareholder who just lost large on JCP.

#167 45north on 11.23.12 at 8:25 pm

bruce: We bought with no condition to sale as per our agent. He told us it would sell within 96% of asking within 30 to 60 days. its now 60 days and we close in 15 days.

it being the house you live in. I know the feeling.

#168 Andrew on 11.23.12 at 8:42 pm

#74 Salacious Crumb

Yeah I noticed the thin REW this week also, thought it was just me but it’s funny you mentioned it. (Even funnier are the weekly comments from the EREB president Doug “Here when life happens!” Singleton)

Here’s a good one from the good people who run the Edmonton Real Estate Blog:

(From the Sales pitch for their new Real Estate re-branding LIV Real Estate)

” Your home is a living investment in a vibrant, growing, ever-changing community, not a business product or someone’s paycheque”

Alright, Nice sales pitch…I might be stretching it a bit, but are they saying they sell real estate for free?

Based on the past few years, alot of us have put on our Dumbcaps complete with blinders and prices that are now two to three times what they were just a few years ago are now the “New Normal” and therefore as the realtors would have us believe “Affordable”.

Came across a headline from 1981, Edmonton Journal:

“Edmonton Prices through the Roof: Average Home price hits $118,000!”

Pretty much the same housing stock being sold at today’s average price of…… ta da! $387,000!! (stats courtesy of Edmonton Real Estate blog)

-Oh yes very affordable!

#169 Daisy Mae on 11.23.12 at 8:43 pm

An experience my friend had with realtors:

“The cleaning lady hung around, and I wondered why…finally she nudged me and said, ‘look at the kitchen floor’. The flooring was two different dye lots.

The realtor was preventing my husband from standing there. And actually tried to block me…..”

This is just one example of the experiences buyers are having.

#170 Fact Checker on 11.23.12 at 8:45 pm

RE-141 bruce c on 11.23.12 at 4:15 pm
We just did a stupid thin a few months back and now we have no idea what to do. We purchased a home in Mississauga for 645,000. We bought with no condition to sale as per our agent. He told us it would sell within 96% of asking within 30 to 60 days. its now 60 days and we close in 15 days. Our home has had no offers and we dropped price from 625000 to 595,000. It now seems we have to go to 550K. Is there anything we can do
——————————————————————
There are no homes listed in Mississauga that fit this storey

#171 Daisy Mae on 11.23.12 at 9:14 pm

#75 Jim: “Asked whether he feared housing prices are falling too quickly, Flaherty said he did not. “I’m glad that it is moderating. That was our goal, to reduce demand, especially in the condo sector in Vancouver and Toronto and we’ve seen that,” he said.”

***********************

What a buggar. I knew he’d take credit for undoing the damage he caused. LOL

#172 Daisy Mae on 11.23.12 at 9:17 pm

Actually, he didn’t undo anything. The correction was bound to happen, anyway. We’ve established that.

#173 Lucky sometimes on 11.23.12 at 9:22 pm

Two of my previous employers in Calgary are offering cash incentives for successful referrals.
Worley Parsons up to $5000 (according to position) and Transcanada $2000.

#174 Daisy Mae on 11.23.12 at 9:27 pm

#81 Oceansie: “Just scroll through them….It’s likely what most do….”

****************

I know, I do….just can’t be bothered with his nonsense.

#175 Daisy Mae on 11.23.12 at 9:33 pm

#88 Teacher: “Your drunken delusional postings are not informative, not funny, not even mildly entertaining.

Oh by the way, please understand every time you post the sound of stupid just keeps getting louder.”

****************

I usually scroll on past…

#176 Uki on 11.23.12 at 10:10 pm

#75 Jim on 11.23.12 at 2:11 am :” A ‘conservative’ finance minister spouting the gospel of centralized planning.”

Bullseye !

#177 Gunboat denier on 11.24.12 at 12:26 am

128 Bottoms – I’ve got redeemable GICs paying over 4% in an RRSP. Check no boxes.

#178 CalgaryPriceWatcher on 11.25.12 at 2:02 am

I have been tracking statistics published by the Calgary Real Estate Board since 2005, entering published website values into an Excel spreadsheet.

A curious thing happened last January when they stopped publishing both median and average prices and started only publishing average prices. In Calgary the average is significantly higher than the median (+60,000) I am guessing due to the considerable fraction of $1M + large homes in the inner city. So switching gives a non statistical mind the impression that prices have increased when in fact the opposite has occurred.

I have tracked both median and average prior to 2012, and my data clearly shows an average price decrease of 7% year over year comparing 2011 to 2012. But this is nowhere to be found in real estate materials or local media reporting. I believe they are correct in reporting increasing sales volumes but that is not the same as prices. In fact given that prices have decreased I don’t find it surprising at all that volumes have increased as it is simple supply and demand.

They are predicted 20,000+ migrants per year to Calgary over the next few years, so I supposed the market will slightly increase or remain stable.

However I find the lack of clarity and transparency very concerning. Why can’t anyone get accurate statistics of house prices? If real estate boards are not doing it perhaps some form of government needs to be. It really does not take a lot of effort-I do this bacially as a personal hobby / personal financial planning task and spend less than an hour on this a month tops.

#179 Bob on 11.25.12 at 6:08 pm

Garth, love these posts.
If Garth, you could do one thing to really make Canada a better place, I would say getting enough momentum to get the government to regulate the real-estate industry to release this type of data would be an astonishing feat.

#180 Andrew on 11.26.12 at 5:06 pm

CalgaryPriceWatcher,

Try Bob Truman’s blog

He is the Messenger of Truth when it comes to Calgary RE stats.

(Just don’t question his numbers…)