The manipulator

Eighteen months ago this was the message to folks in BC: “Homeowners can rest easy their principal place of residence won’t likely encounter any negative equity while investors, with patience, can see their asset grow at a moderate pace.”

Based on what? The forecast of the realtors’ chief economist, Cameron Muir.

Here’s what Cam revealed this week:

  • “The dollar volume of homes sold through the Multiple Listing Service in BC declined 14.6%  to $2.7 billion in October compared to the same month last year.”
  • October sales of 5,276 were down 10% from last year, and…
  • the average price ($508,292) is lower by 5.1%.
  • Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume declined 18.2% to $31.1 billion.
  • Sales fell 10.5% to 59,946 units, and…
  • the average residential price was 8.6% lower at $518,321

In other words, someone buying the average house a year ago has lost 5% of their property value. If they bought with 5% down, they own nothing but an obligation to pay. And if they bought in January, they’ve lost 8.6%. Given the fact the average down payment these days is 7%, thousands of people are currently in negative equity. Combine that with the current savings rate in BC – negative 8% – (thanks to real estate) and you can see what damage housing can do.

Of course, we’re just starting the descent. Vancouver and Victoria’s situation is well documented. But things are more dire in Parksville, Qualicum or Nanoose, where acres of golf club-hugging West Coast McMansions were built in anticipation of a Boomer tsunami from Mississauga and Calgary. Sales in Parksville are down 17% and have tumbled 15% in Nanaimo. Average prices are lower by 3% from last year, but in the wrinkly areas, relative bargains now abound. Homes that a year ago were trading in the nines are now pushing the bottom eights, newly-built, granitized with enough potlights to safely land an Airbus.

Mississauga prices, in other words, with better housing and no snow times. But still, the Boomers are not coming. Nor will they. Even as prices fall, BC’s a victim of its own real estate excess, and is now irreparably labeled as stupid expensive.

Yesterday I rubbed a few people the wrong way by saying the feds – with their War on the House – did not cause the current correction, but merely exposed it. No bad typing. I meant it. Mortgage brokers and realtors can blame killing off the 30-year mortgage or the end of cash-back loans all they want, but there’s only one reason housing is dangerous. It costs too much. Cheap credit and weak minds created this.

Nobody has done more to foster the destructive belief that everyone deserves a sexed-up house, or that there’s negligible risk in getting one, than the real estate industry. Cameron Muir is a good example. Re/Max is even better.

Days ago, as sales in most major markets wilted and condos crumbled, a new ‘housing outlook’ report led with this prediction: “The trend (higher sales) is expected to continue, with home-buying activity propped-up by low interest rates and an improved economic picture in 2013, according to a report released today by Re/Max.”

“Canadian home sales are expected to almost mirror the 2012 performance next year, holding steady at 454,000 units.  The average price of a Canadian home is expected to remain stable at $364,000 in 2012—on par with the figure reported in 2011.  Values are expected to appreciate nominally in 2013, rising… one per cent above year-end 2012 levels.”

Why would sales and prices rise when the average family can’t afford the average home? Three reasons, says the company: the economy ‘is expected’ to improve; rates will stay low; and the clincher…

“Last, but certainly not least, there’s no denying the universal appeal of bricks and mortar.  Canadians believe in homeownership.  The stability of real estate over the long-term continues to fuel its appeal.”

See what I mean? An entire report and national forecast based on some ‘expected’ outcomes, all unsubstantiated and unresearched, sprinkled with sunshine and ponies. Home sales, says Re/Max, will surge in Vancouver, Calgary and Kingston, while prices will jump in Regina, St, John’s and Halifax.

But all this attempted manipulation may be old news. The Re/Max report days ago was picked up by 24 print media outlets in Canada. The one these guys published last year had five times that coverage. Seems even the newspapers, starved as they are for paying advertisers, are starting to cringe and draw a line just this side of credibility.

The 100 days following January 1st, 2013, will be historic ones for Canadian real estate and all those recently seduced by it. By the end of March even your mom will be on board.

192 comments ↓

#1 KG on 11.20.12 at 9:45 pm

First

#2 Tim on 11.20.12 at 9:46 pm

Despite all this doom and gloom prices in Vancouver have barely moved the needle.

The average SFH has fallen $200,000 from the Spring. And been to Richmond lately? — Garth

#3 NBE on 11.20.12 at 9:52 pm

There are tons of reasons to read this blog but the humour is near the top. “granitized with enough potlights to safely land an Airbus.” LOLOL

#4 Patiently waiting on 11.20.12 at 9:54 pm

I can’t believe these real estate “experts” are still holding the line. Do they know how foolish they will look in a couple of months time? I guess there are no consequences for their statements so they blather on. I guess self-respect, ethics, and pride goes out the door as long as you make money. Comparing these folk to used car salesmen is beginning to give the use car salesmen a bad name.

BTW……first???

#5 tow mater on 11.20.12 at 9:56 pm

What happens if interest rates rise Jan 17th. Is this a possibility or not yet?

#6 Finally on 11.20.12 at 9:58 pm

Asking price are falling in Vancouver and surrounding areas, some more than others. It’s hard to time the bottom, but I’m waiting with cash in hand, renting.

#7 Smoking Man on 11.20.12 at 10:00 pm

Garth why don’t you have a bubble head Bon fire party, get a Fat girl in a bikini dancing to gangnum style.

All the bubble heads can join in, give LaughingCon first crack at fatso, as he is the one man crusade who made all this happen.

Have Buy$ Curious$ record the event, the closest he will get to producing original content.
He can get out his need to chirp by talking during filming.

Oh and make sure this party is no where near a 416 sfh area, you will all look silly.

#8 dosouth on 11.20.12 at 10:02 pm

#188 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.20.12 at 4:54 pm

#169 dosouth on 11.20.12 at 3:46 pm
and
#183 Junius on 11.20.12 at 4:39 pm

I am well aware some agents discount their fees… and so they should.
_______________________

AKA you need perspective, and reading glasses as you seem to continually miss the point. These agents in Vernon would leave you in the dirt when it comes to performance and sales volumes. They have seen the light of service and innovation, unlike some others (AKA)….

So I’ll say it again, smoke and mirrors you are just smoke and mirrors.

(You could used some down time from this blog though, you’re getting repetitive and a bit grumpy……)

#9 TurnerNation on 11.20.12 at 10:06 pm

Today’s pic: “In Soviet Russia, Tommy guns you”?

#10 city slicker on 11.20.12 at 10:07 pm

Garth why is march our re fiscal cliff?

#11 Snowboid on 11.20.12 at 10:08 pm

Excellent post, Professor… and I believe things are just as dire in the Okanagan.

At least last weeks’ snow has melted, but more is on the way tomorrow.

My only gripe today is the sunburn from putting up the Xmas lights today in 28 C – but they sure look great on palm trees!

#12 Canadian Watchdog on 11.20.12 at 10:14 pm

Speaking of manipulation and Re/Max.. Now they’re going off telling investors rentals are up 15% y/y. Here’s the twitter incident, and here’s where I booked him on his own rental numbers from last year’s report.

Of course, he had to retort, and posted this when even last year’s post still shows different rental figures.

Get your numbers straight Re/Max.

#13 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.20.12 at 10:24 pm

Re Photo:

Looks like an NDP day care……. Comrade

#14 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.20.12 at 10:27 pm

Get in now, or be priced out *forever.

* where forever is 8 months ago.

#15 bill on 11.20.12 at 10:27 pm

turner nation I think he is a ‘specialist officer’ in the swiss army. presumably he commands a group of machine guns/armorers….. that would most likely explain the presence of a squad automatic weapon in his house.

#16 bill on 11.20.12 at 10:31 pm

Garth is that pic an allusion to those nefarious gnomes of Zurich? no doubt they are responsible for the real estate price decline…. dont really see the link . say could you elucidate?
Thanks

#17 TRT on 11.20.12 at 10:33 pm

#2 Tim

The flaw in the post is that average home prices quote of $508,292 (a decrease of 5.1% from previous year) DOES NOT mean that all particular houses lost 5.1% of their value.

This average is down because most likely because there are less $1-2 Million ++ houses selling…thereby dragging the average down. My local neighbourhood has gone crazy…+$100,000 since beginning of the year.

#18 Fartweezel on 11.20.12 at 10:34 pm

Nice picture.

Who is the guy with what looks like a SS eagle on his sleeve? It looks like a young Wolfgang Droege….. .

#19 milbay on 11.20.12 at 10:35 pm

Exactly Garth.., “it costs too much” ! .., why cant the idiots in RE understand this? There is no shortage of prospective buyers causing sales to dry up. The RE industry along with their requisite speculators have done this. Hope they enjoy it

#20 dam on 11.20.12 at 10:35 pm

Always a delight to read the real estate news during the day. It’s even better in the evening with your condensed report Garth.

#21 a prairie dawg on 11.20.12 at 10:36 pm

Nobody has done more to foster the destructive belief that everyone deserves a sexed-up house, or that there’s negligible risk in getting one, than the real estate industry.

– — –

What about the Endorphin Channel? (HGTV)

Not even an honorable mention?

#22 Awesome on 11.20.12 at 10:36 pm

Met up with a friend tonight that doesn’t read this blog. Asked her where they are living, just relocated back to Canada and my friend was saying how outrageous and unjustifiable prices are. They plan on renting until things become sensible in the GTA. Young couple both high income earners. Seems like the word is out with every person I talk to. Things will settle down. Hopefully in 2013.

#23 TRT on 11.20.12 at 10:37 pm

Particia Croft rolled her eyes when Bannerjee suggested that the housing market could spiral downwards…hahaha

…even mansbridge suggested Croft might be an eternal optimist lol

…on CBC National Housing discussion

#24 Tim on 11.20.12 at 10:44 pm

What do you mean the 100 days following Jan 1 will be historic? Patti Croft said on CBC that we have a soft landing in the real estate market. This is of course after the writing is on the wall. Months ago she said housing wouldn’t fall. Lol

#25 Smoking Man on 11.20.12 at 10:46 pm

#10 City slicker

Garth don’t know. I was just educated went to Alex Johns web site.

It’s a brand, a sell is coming. Austerity .

See its like this, fiat money, money from thin air can never be paid back in full once interest rates are added. It requires growth and a bit of inflation ever growing debt and asset inflation. If in balance it can continue forever. To much inflation or to little throws it out of wack.

Today, slaves and labour not making enought. And the rich not making enough, growth rates to slow for balance.

Because we rich run the show, slaves will be sold a brand called fiscall cliff, and be primed to live with less, work more, and be watched like never before, we rich wana keep our heads.

Does that clear it up slave.

#26 hangfire on 11.20.12 at 10:51 pm

This pathetic blog has been neutered by deletions, bannings and censorship. The constant regurgitation of shadenfreude is evidence of complacency. Write honest commentary not more pseudo-intellectual rot . dare to face the morally superior characters you fear. At least you’ll have something to aspire to. As a Canadian with a voice what you should fear is another generation of sameness.

#27 Ziggy on 11.20.12 at 10:57 pm

Robert Shiller writes in his book, Irrational Exuberance, that word of mouth is a powerful amplifier of information. As more and more narratives are put before the media, moving at the speed of light and becoming particles of reality, the mentality of the herd reaches a tipping point. Real Estate decisions are often based on emotion and behavioral finance is difficult to quantify.

Vancouver’s entering a phase where speculators buying presale units on assignment are seeing lower market prices as the units reach completion. The Spring market should be very interesting.

#28 Bigrider on 11.20.12 at 10:58 pm

Questioning anyone on the value of owning real estate in the GTA and it’s continued rise in price is akin to questioning a religious zealot on the existence of God.

Both will be met with fervent rhetoric and archaic notions of plausibility,both objective and subjective.

The long held belief in real estate as ‘best investment over long term’ is simply to deeply ingrained into the DNA of a largely first and second generation immigrant class of people to be dissuaded by a well meaning ,bearded, Harley (tractor) riding blog host.

I fear that only a catastrophic drop in RE prices will adjust the financial distortions in Canada both to personal finances and GDP that the above erroneous psychology has caused.

#29 Dr. WAYNE on 11.20.12 at 11:02 pm

#1 KG on 11.20.12 at 9:45 pm

First

So … you’re a 1 kg (not lb) a$$hole … pretty light weight …

#30 JLH on 11.20.12 at 11:02 pm

Just read the Toronto Life November issue. Profiled a number of young, educated and wealthy that are moving to Toronto from various countries around the world. UK, USA, Serbia, Hong Kong, Scotland, Ireland , Mexico all of them saying how much they loved Toronto, the diversity, job opportunities, culture etc. I agree with Smoking Man, SFH’s in the GTA will not be heading south any time soon…….

#31 Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 11.20.12 at 11:05 pm

It’s going ot be a NASTY crash realtors , a NASTY crash. Also it’s going to be a LONG financially COLD winter , a Financially COLD winter.

#32 ChickenLittle on 11.20.12 at 11:14 pm

Neve, ever, EVER read this blog in a homework induced coma….babies start to look like they have costumes on when they don’t, Smoking Man makes sense, and I waste time by following the links people post…

#33 salonist on 11.20.12 at 11:14 pm

just bought a bounty of hedging equipment for my university daughters.they will have their own summer jobs.
topiary work it is.they will do well in oakville.
so,sm if you need some ufo’s pass me a note,
garth, they’re having a special on frank and the percocets.
here in oakvile,lots of folks, percentage up, down don’t mean that much.
any requests for a pink elephant.

#34 ekstso on 11.20.12 at 11:16 pm

Interesting picture isn’t it?
It is not Russia but one of the democratic Baltic States (Latvia I think) which is glorifying their national SS troops fighting on Nazi side in WW2.

#35 Brad in Cowtown on 11.20.12 at 11:16 pm

Days ago, as sales in most major markets wilted

Most? Oh that’s right, Calgary’s doing very well, isn’t it?

Still waiting for that apology…

#36 luke8929 on 11.20.12 at 11:16 pm

So children when the bad men hired by the bank come to take away Mommy and Daddys Beemer, Audi, merc and put new locks on the doors….

Say hello to my little friend!!!

#37 LJ on 11.20.12 at 11:16 pm

Someone presented a statistic the other day (on another blog) that the homeownership rate here in Calgary is currently somewhere north of 80%. If true, they found 10-15% more greater fools than most other bubble cities could entice, including most areas in the US during their insanity, and we are likely looking at a very serious crash if buyers, or their funding sources dry up.

Most people around here are probably praying that the price of oil goes well north of $100 and Nat Gas returns to $10. Not thinking of the actual harm that this would do to their bottom line.

But, the real estate pumpers are really banging the drum on the current manufactured numbers occurring here.

I really hate this ‘boom/bust’ town!

Just sayin’…

Not sure about that, but Alberta leads the nation in the greatest percentage of people with mortgages. — Garth

#38 Julia on 11.20.12 at 11:17 pm

I got into a heated discussion with a couple of work colleagues today about the future of real estate, especially the condo market. My argument was they are just not worth what people are asking for them. One of my colleagues, a 50 something professional who lives in a condo in uptown Toronto, bought hers years ago and said it has doubled in value since they bought. So my question to her was this: If you didn’t own right now, would you buy your condo at the current price. She said “yes”. Needless to say i was shocked. So there you go.

She does a lot of work with the ministry of citizenship and immigration and she said immigration will keep the market strong… In fact, new policies will be encouraging even more business class immigration.

It never ceases to amaze me how emotional people become when I dare to suggest that buying real estate may not be a good idea right now.

#39 coastal on 11.20.12 at 11:19 pm

Nobody has done more to foster the destructive belief that everyone deserves a sexed-up house, or that there’s negligible risk in getting one, than the real estate industry. Cameron Muir is a good example. Re/Max is even better.
————————————————

Well said Garth. Reading the various BC house blogs with their resident agents who keep rolling out the same lame lines trying to reel in the sheep who teeter on the fence is getting tiring. One day they claim it will flat line, then when numbers show downward trends they resort to claiming 10% worst case cause most of their clients are mortgage free and most people earn over $75K in Victoria which is complete bullshit. It is really getting pathetic to read this drivel amongst the realistic bears who have seen this train wreck coming for a very long time. Karma’s a bitch Cam.

#40 noise on 11.20.12 at 11:19 pm

Nanoose is some kind of strange phenomena. There are countless inexpensive places to live on Vancouver Island that are also in the middle of nowhere. Some also have golf courses and geriatric white people.

#41 coastal on 11.20.12 at 11:21 pm

Patti Croft said on CBC that we have a soft landing in the real estate market.

————————————

Tim,

Patti Croft will be famous predicting the first soft landing in real estate history. She must be maxed out.

#42 Smoking Mans smarter cousin on 11.20.12 at 11:27 pm

By the end of March even your mom will be on board.

===================================

yeah……. butt mom kicked cuzz’s ass out of her basement suite….not paying rent…..He has to shack up with Olde Man …..

At leased he was allowed to keep his Commodore 64 to stay in touch with us via smoke signals and regale us with his hourly Bullsh*t

#43 Dan from Richmond Hill on 11.20.12 at 11:29 pm

#28 Julia on 11.20.12 at 11:17 pm

About immigration: it was posted yesterday…could it be more difficult for Canada to keep the number of immigrants as high as in the past ?

#44 Van guy on 11.20.12 at 11:33 pm

#2 Tim on 11.20.12 at 9:46 pm

Despite all this doom and gloom prices in Vancouver have barely moved the needle.

The average SFH has fallen $200,000 from the Spring. And been to Richmond lately? — Garth
—————————————

See why we have a problem? Because people are being lied to by the media and and Muir. Look at the number of desperate sales lately. You need to dig a little deeper in the world wide web!

#45 Dan from Richmond Hill on 11.20.12 at 11:38 pm

#28 Julia on 11.20.12 at 11:17 pm

Sorry, here is the link: http://goo.gl/ieZkN

#46 Jim on 11.20.12 at 11:46 pm

#29 JLH

Toronto Life does its best to pump Toronto, and RE in particular. If you look at their back issues, a lot of the pictures that they use of happy torontonians in their condos are actually fake. Stock condo shots with stock photos of people superimposed.

You can tell by the lighting (people who cast no shadows) and by the proportions. I’ve caught them on it so many times, and they are unrepentant.

Of course they glow about toronto. Their advertisers wouldn’t be happy if they didn’t.

And yes, even a world class city (ha ha) like Toronto can have a downturn. Just look at the US and EU.

#47 Victoria on 11.20.12 at 11:46 pm

I hope there is a record of all these stupid quotes from RE/MAX and Muir.

Someone should start a web site/blog of quotes.

#48 GTA Girl on 11.20.12 at 11:51 pm

This is why RE even in the 416 rich areas makes no sense.

One road in the area of west side of Bayview street north of Post Road.

14 Fifeshire – large ravine lot, modest older home. Asking $3.1 mill. Still a lot of money, since homes in this area of this quality were selling for slightly over $2mil two years ago.

http://m.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=11907237

51 Fifeshire. South of the above property. Although the road is not very large and snakes from Bayview, loops back to Bayview. Asking $4.438. This house has been on the market 2years ago. Sold for $200k more than. Someone wants out bad.

http://m.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=12552860

Now this….. 2 doors down from the $3.1 property

http://m.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=12511453

$8.5 mil is the asking price . Next door to the $3.1 house. And this one doesn’t even have the same size lot. Same ravine. Notice the pics. Never lived in. And the picture of the rear of this home is an insult. A cheap wood deck, a garbage bin near a dirty pool. For $8.5 million it should be staged immaculate…..and in Conneticut or outside Manhatten. Not a mansion among shacks.

Spoiled, lazy seller looking for an easy mark

And just down the street is a mansion…monstrosity being built by an Iranian businessman. It is a corner lot, with a deep bow to Versailles and the palazzo’s of Venice. Yes, this means you can blind by the gaudiness of it.

Here’s a picture of it. Unfortunately a tradesman died in an accident on the site. Construction has been halted on it since by the Ministry of Labour.

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/08/28/construction-worker-dies-in-fall-from-toronto-mansion

Money must be falling from the sky. If every single house in the area to west of Bayview is worth over $3-8 million, than the market is in deep trouble.

#49 FTP - First Time Poster on 11.20.12 at 11:53 pm

“Canadians believe in homeownership.”

It should say: “Canadians believe in life long, voluntary servitude”.

Here is an interesting video on Greece. How long before what we see in Greece expands the rest of Europe and beyond?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tsTqUOsvoM&feature=player_embedded

#50 Derek R on 11.21.12 at 12:06 am

#47 GTA Girl on 11.20.12 at 11:51 pm wrote:
14 Fifeshire

Ooo, Fifeshire! That’s like saying Canadaland or Ontarioshire. No! Wrong! Fail!

And I know it’s not your doing, GTA Girl, but it still grates.

It’s just Fife (or the Kingdom of Fife if you want to use its Sunday name).

#51 DON on 11.21.12 at 12:11 am

Theme song for boomers who moved to Qualicum, Parksville and Nanoose…

“We’re here for a good time…not a long time” Pretty much says it all. Who will replace them? Prices will revert to affordable. I believe Qualicum has the best chance of being a retirement destination spot do to the make up of the town. But then again as people pass on…

#52 Sparky55 on 11.21.12 at 12:16 am

Builder manipulation?

Started @$366,900 on 4 Mar 2011
Then to $376,900 on Jun 09, 2011
Then to $379,900 on Jan 18, 2012

Sold Price today for: $382,085, after being on market for 619 days…

One possible legitimate reason would be up-selling the customer on upgrades, or rolling fees into the mortgage.

http://www.viewpoint.ca/property/cutsheet/2011204026?no-nav=1&no-footer=1

I’ve been noticing similar trends for quite a while.
My favorite is when little/nothing is selling, and the builders start jacking the price up on new builds in an area. A few weeks later, they start jacking the prices up in another area near by. Often it’s $5,000-$10,000 each time, and NEVER down.

#53 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.21.12 at 12:24 am

Forget 8.6% lower prices, how about 30% below assessed value in Vancouver?
http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2012/11/a-westside-vancouver-home-sells-for.html

race to the bottom is on!

#54 Lachplesis on 11.21.12 at 12:45 am

about the pic. yes, regrettably it was in Latvia. This single occurrence was condemned by the authorities, and the international community. This is certainly not a widespread practice.

more info (somehow biased though): http://rt.com/news/nazi-patriotic-lesson-kindergarten-latvia-012/

On the other hand we can learn quite a bit about fiscal austerity from Latvia. They are the opposite of Greece in the way they handle their financial miscalculations.

#55 Jounce on 11.21.12 at 1:04 am

Asking a ‘real estate expert’ on investing in housing is like asking your local crack dealer on the best substance abuse programs. Both are a little too invested to give you an honest answer.

#56 AprilNewwest on 11.21.12 at 1:07 am

Tim #23 — Patti Croft said some time ago, rather smugly, that her house had gone up to 1mil – don’t know how long she’s lived in it – She always seems to put a rosy spin on Canadian RE. I guess she doesn’t want to see her house drop in value.

#57 AprilNewwest on 11.21.12 at 1:10 am

#16 Trt – Keep pumping if it makes you feel better.

#58 neo on 11.21.12 at 1:26 am

Garth,

FYI, The Shanghai just broke 2,000 for the first time since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009 just before they launched they stimulus in March that led to malinvestment and rapid inflation. In other words, along with that and regime changed. A big stimulus ain’t happening again. Now things get interesting…

#59 Jon B on 11.21.12 at 1:37 am

I got a bad feeling the anticipated rise in interest rates along with the price correction in real estate are both going to move ahead at glacial speed. Sucks.

#60 Bill on 11.21.12 at 1:43 am

#36 LJ on 11.20.12 at 11:16 pm

I saw that home ownership graph as well the other day, and saved it to my desktop. Here’s a link… Think it was on Vancouver Real Estate Ancedote in the comments somewhere.

http://i.imgur.com/DMqRB.png

#61 Roy on 11.21.12 at 1:52 am

“thousands of people are currently in negative equity.”

And they have themselves to blame, for they believed con men like Cameron Muir.

The whole real estate industry are nothing but shills and liars, happily pouncing on dumb and naive Canadians no matter what is going on in the market. You would think they would operate by some code of ethics, but they don’t. It’s all fun and games in an up market, until it isn’t up anymore. And then they should have an obligation to report accurate facts, not spin, but instead they choose to be pumpers and manipulators.

HGTV, the media, most realtors, the realty boards, and the banks have blown apart any trust the people have with them. They are con artists, liars, and thieves only intent on making themselves richer at the expense of everyone else. I swear most of the time they take this stance just so they can keep their jobs, which again means they are dishonest crooks baiting people with the latest junk figures, such as the HPI, and trends.

In the end people have only themselves to blame. When prices are stupid expensive it shows the population itself is stupid. RE today is a screw or be screwed market, meaning it is built on corruption, massive debt, greed, lies, and overall filth.

#62 stage1dave on 11.21.12 at 1:54 am

Re: photo…NDP Daycare…huh? I thought it was “Tea Party” Kindergarden.

As I’m reading thru the comments I’ve been distracted by Mansbridge fielding a panel of economic analysis, & the housing situation in Canada is figuring prominently within the discussion

I’m also being substantially distracted by Amanda Lang, but I’m not certain whether that’s because of her logical disection of the potential pitfalls of a housing backslide; or the fact that she’s smokin’ hot…or maybe I’m fascinated by someone who can spend almost an hour a day five days a week with Kevin O’leary…

Anyway, street level news from Edmonton, where unfortunately; you do not have to go to City Hall to find flakes. (Was hoping I could work that in here somewhere) Too much damned snow up here, & in the middle of it & the resulting sub-zero temperatures, a building frenzy on our block. The house next door (which brought 315K in July) has disappeared to be replaced by another 2.5 story McMansion squeezed onto a 30′ lot…3 doors down (really!) the house on the corner is gone, replaced by a large hole in the ground which will soon support yet another very large genital extension to it’s young owners’ financial omnipotence…or perhaps simply their ability to fleece the banks…or their parents…& then, of course, the taxpayers.

Across the alley at the other end of the block, an extremely large hole has been dug & the forms placed for a Frank Lloyd Wright ripoff whos’ walkout basement will open halfway down the ravine…a fact I’m sure all the homeless people living down there will really appreciate, because that way they won’t have to walk up all those stairs to my place looking for a handout. I have a strange suspicion the new owners of that property may not be so tolerant…

The numbers I hear from the tradesmen on these places are all between 500K to slightly over a million. I’m the resident weirdo on this block, btw; ’cause I rent. (Figured making a $2100/mt mortgage payment was a bit steeper than renting the place for $1200/mt) I thought the bank might know something I didn’t when they offered me the loan, because I certainly wouldn’t loan that kind of money to me…but I didn’t tell them that, just politely declined.

(Besides, making all those payments woulda put a hell of a dent in our 68 Shelby budget that we’re gonna build for the wife…priorities!)

So, despite all the rosy pictures being painted on our block, the cracks are appearing all over this city; especially in “almost a million” mansions that sit on the market forever, despite several price reductions; thanx to CMHC’s recent rule changes.

Furthermore, our landlords at the shop own several buildings in the city, & have a lot more square footage for rent than they are comfortable with…month-to-month is now almost welcome, where it hasn’t been in the recent past. Guess the last few years have spoiled everyone…me included.

From what I see in the local trade papers & Kijiji, & hear first-hand, I’m convinced the majority of this RE market is heading in the same direction as some areas of the restored car market…DOWN; unless you’re on the right block or have the correct automobile.

#63 Freedom First on 11.21.12 at 1:54 am

It is a sad day when little girls have to be put in protective custody to protect them from the CREA and its media minions.

#64 GTARealEstateCorner on 11.21.12 at 1:57 am

Real estate prices in prime Toronto HAVE fallen since the spring so whoever on this blog says 416 SFH are not affected is categorically incorrect. Smoking Man is clearly wrong but he’s also annoying. Some may find him entertaining though, but in a herpes kind of way.
Prices in 416 SFH may not fall as much as other areas, but they are falling and will continue to drop. Who knows how much, probably 5%-10% even for premium locations.

#65 John Prine on 11.21.12 at 1:57 am

Average prices being down 3% in Nanaimo and Parksville……Pretty conservative estimate, maybe after the 4th 90 day listing.

#66 HomeWatcher on 11.21.12 at 2:13 am

Homes out here in the ‘Wack (Chilliwack) and suburban areas around Vancouver are falling as opposed to rising in price. Many here believed that these bedroom communities would see swarms of people flocking as Vancouver prices became un-buyable and the new Port Mann went up.

Sadly mistaken – rising gas prices and a future toll on the bridge is weighing heavily on people once considering moving out and commiting in.

#67 kreditanstalt on 11.21.12 at 2:32 am

“Home-buying activity propped up” by low interest rates…?

They aren’t even real interest rates.
It isn’t even real money.
They’re RENTING, not buying, homes.
And home-buying should stand up on its own two legs…

#68 Picasso on 11.21.12 at 2:51 am

…enough potlights to safely land an Airbus.

ROTFLMAO

#69 Bo Xilai on 11.21.12 at 3:02 am

“…even the newspapers, starved as they are for paying advertisers, are starting to cringe and draw a line just this side of credibility.”

Garth, the “lack of credibility” ship sailed long ago for Canadian newspapers (especially the old Postmedia fishwrappers).

#70 Buy? Curious? on 11.21.12 at 3:04 am

Garth, these percentage drops may sound insignificant now”Oh, it’s only a 5% drop.”, but when people who bought in the last 4 years (I’m one of them but I’m not one of THEM) realise that after years of chipping away at a mortgage has been for nothing, there’s going to be plenty of tears. Like at Smoking Man’s house during Christmas where there’s an intervention just waiting to happen.

Hey Chubby Smoking Man, I was standing in line at the Greyhound depot waiting for a package and it seemed to be taking forever. People were sighing, rolling their eyes, looking at their watches, typical distinctively Canadian displays of frustration. I don’t what came over me but I started to read some of your earlier post that I been collecting, in Scottish accent, out loud. And you know what? It was hilarious! I mean frickin HILARIOUS! I had to untuck my shirt, force my belly out a bit and drool (Grade 12 Drama improv class, thank you) but it was worth it. I didn’t do any of your creepier bits like this one,

“#43 Smoking Man on 11.18.12 at 11:10 pm
#40 Old Man on 11.18.12 at 10:54 pm

Would not happen today old man, everybody on iphone and smart phones. They don’t talk anymore on the train.

One night coming home from the duke half cut, I loaded a vid from redtube, a porno site, cranked the volumn.

I was sitting with 3 hotties in mid 20′s. Well I was shocked, I was just trying to get a raise out off them, gauge a reaction for a chapter in the book, and they knew the names of the porno stars and said the resolution of my phone was amazing.

WTF we were born too soon.”

That’s just plain weird. An old guy, watching porn, by himself on a GO train, just strikes up a conversation with 3 young women and gets them to watch porn on his iPhone? Yeah Right! The girls would hitting the alarm faster then contests on Jeopardy. “What is Dirty Old Man? I’ll Take Smoking Man for $1000, Alex.”

So I’m actually taking your better bits, I mean the really good bits and make my own spoof Keys to Success website. I make actually try doing stand-up with it. Why not? The material is already there. It would be shame to keep this stuff limited to this pathetic blog, (No disrespect, Garth). I think it would be perfect at this time of impending times of hardship.

Thanks Smoking Man.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CC-13JtWu1w&feature=fvwrel

#71 rentin on 11.21.12 at 3:05 am

Garth

You will love this:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12359171&PidKey=-1415022696

previously

http://www.lancemarshall.com/4055glenmore.htm

You want to let Lance know that he should update his webpage during his no-show open houses, or should I?

Or maybe the hammer-jackson boys are a bit too hammered to realize that THEY should call Lance and tell him to take down the old post that makes every realtor look like a lying sack of .

The blog dogs can figure out the price drop on this one.

#72 TRT on 11.21.12 at 3:19 am

#37 Julia

Any more Immigration posts from you and you will be DELETED!

#73 Ronaldo on 11.21.12 at 3:23 am

http://www.zoocasa.com/en/real_estate/1876205-39-West-21st-Ave-Vancouver-British

I walked by this house on the weekend and wondered what it might be selling for so decided to google it and find out. Asking price $1,538,000. In the ad it states that the average household income is $72,451 for the area. This represents 21.2 x average income.

How is this even possilbe when the same house back in the early 70’s was just 3 times 1 income. Something has to give because this is pure insanity.

#74 Waterloo Resident on 11.21.12 at 3:26 am

I keep hearing ‘experts’ on the news saying that now is the best time to buy, because there are less bidding wars and now buyers may ACTUALLY have time to have the house inspected BEFORE making an offer.

Makes sense, doesn’t it?

#75 Bottoms_Up on 11.21.12 at 3:27 am

#37 Julia on 11.20.12 at 11:17 pm
——————————————
I bought a townhouse in Ottawa in 2009 and I would (and could) buy it again today at it’s current value. It hasn’t doubled in price though.

#76 Buy? Curious? on 11.21.12 at 4:25 am

Smoking Man, please tell this isn’t you.

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/crime/article/1290705–man-sought-in-multiple-subway-sexual-assaults-on-teen

#77 Kaganovich on 11.21.12 at 6:19 am

Smoking Man

The rich will lose their hair, and perhaps their heads. Your incessant taunting simply gives away your fear of this.

#78 House Horny Housewife on 11.21.12 at 7:05 am

Garth,

Remax is correct about how most people feel about bricks and mortar. In a fleeting age of crazy market ebbs and flows as well as entrepreneurs who rise to the top only to be hurled into an abyss etc.. etc.., owning a property still seems to ring true with most people.

These people do not see the loss of liquidity that property ties them down to, nor the additional costs and responsibility that a property entails, on top of the purchase price. However:

– if you can afford that property and it makes you happy, and you are able to buy something decent for a decent price (Vancouver, Toronto et al excepted), then I don’t see why you cannot buy your dream home … if you are not planning to sell it anytime soon, then buy it, love it and get on with your life already.

– listen to your agent, listen to your bank manager, listen to your mother and mother-in-law, listen to your spouse and listen to anyone who is willing to flog you with their advice .. just remember that it is just that, ADVICE. You don’t HAVE to do what they tell you to do and no one is twisting your arm. Deep down we all know what is the right thing for us and you just have to remain true to that. Everyone has an agenda .. well duh ! Just make sure you follow yours and not theirs.

Garth, if people are greedy and unscrupulous with money, they will be so whether it is with houses or cars or purses or shoes or restaurant bills. Isn’t it at least better that some people are still holding SOME equity in bricks and mortar as opposed to a maxed out credit line and lots of expensive clothes in their closet ?

You talk about people’s mortgage debt but I am sure that people have much more debt than this and this other debt is pure debt .. with no asset on the other side (or at least nothing that hasn’t devalued by about 95%).

Having no retirement nest egg is the last thing on people’s minds these days. Too busy thinking about that next reno … oh and don’t get me started on reno overrun costs … since you’re having the walls taken down, might as well … and why not add …

I am sure that we are in even bigger trouble than you mention ..

HHHW

#79 Smoking Man on 11.21.12 at 7:29 am

#75 buy courious
Sorry not me. Probably a teacher in a Halloween costume is my guess

#80 Picasso on 11.21.12 at 7:50 am

#52 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.21.12 at 12:24 am
Forget 8.6% lower prices, how about 30% below assessed value in Vancouver?
http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2012/11/a-westside-vancouver-home-sells-for.html

race to the bottom is on!

……………………………………………………………………

Give our heads a shake Canada !!!

Assessed value? $1,993,100.

The thing maybe cost all of $6,000 bucks new !!!

Unbelievable the stupidity, I can’t even comprehend it.

#81 House on 11.21.12 at 8:37 am

Where is the reference to my favorite home pumpers, the “independent”, CMHC!!

#82 detalumis on 11.21.12 at 8:41 am

#55 Not sure if the Patti Croft house that went up 1 million show was the same one I watched, she was on earlier in the summer and said that, but she certainly wasn’t smug about it. She said she was going to put her own house up for sale and take the profit because she didn’t think it was worth that amount and she stated then that the high prices were not realistic.

I remember that earlier show because I always liked the fact that Patti had a normal face unlike Patricia Lovett-Reid who looks eerily like Bette Midler. I have this personal thing about older women inflating their faces as a prerequisite to remaining on TV. On that show Patti had, had the Botox and stuff done herself and I was disappointed in her for that reason.

#83 Toon Town Boomer on 11.21.12 at 8:49 am

The 100 days following January 1st, 2013, will be historic ones for Canadian real estate and all those recently seduced by it. By the end of March even your mom will be on board.

Does this include Saskatoon?

Especially. — Garth

#84 futurologist on 11.21.12 at 8:55 am

obama and stalin

different methods, but same results: destruction of farmers, small business, hunger, collapse, devastation and totalitarian repressions.

Obama is building “KOLHOZ” in USA.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

They Are Going To Make It Nearly Impossible To Pass On A Farm Or A Business To Your Children

#85 Toon Town Boomer on 11.21.12 at 8:57 am

Tim on 11.20.12 at 9:46 pm
Despite all this doom and gloom prices in Vancouver have barely moved the needle.

The average SFH has fallen $200,000 from the Spring. And been to Richmond lately? — Garth

This says it all the prices fall 200,000 and they still are not affordable for the average person. Just goes to show you how riduculous this whole housing mess is.

It’s not over yet. — Garth

#86 Smoking Man on 11.21.12 at 9:05 am

#69 Buy Courious

See bubble heads why fame sucks, you get a real life stockers.

BC thanks for the clue as to who you are.When Old Man and I where engaged in competitive alpha male boastful chic chatter, only a sexually confused (BI-Curious) chic or a severely feminized male  would take offence. But even a feminized male with a few ounce of testosterone would be too reluctant to post. Only a Chic with a brush cut would be nervy enough.

You’re Chic.

Or perhaps that’s too complimentary. I will take a crack at this.Through poor breeding selection via your ancestors, you ended up having shoulders disproportionally smaller than your hips, in your case no need for a sports bra when jogging.

You hate real men because you have been tricked to perform lud acts, only to never be called back. You love the pink tree at Dundas square and are contemplating joining the steering committee for gay pride, (Not that there is anything wrong with that)I am now the target of your life’s failures and missed opportunities,  and this all against a Fictional Character.

You’re beauty,  starting to like you.

#87 AK on 11.21.12 at 9:23 am

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/11/20/the-manipulator/#comment-208155

+1. LOL

#88 Julia on 11.21.12 at 9:55 am

#71 TRT on 11.21.12 at 3:19 am
LOL…delete baby delete!

#89 Berniebee on 11.21.12 at 10:01 am

#74 Bottoms_Up on 11.21.12 at 3:27 am

You may be able to afford your Ottawa condo at today’s prices. The point (Of this pathetic blog) is that within a couple of years I will be able to buy your condo at it’s 2009 price. I believe that Ottawa has peaked.

We downsized to a much smaller SFH in Ottawa this spring. We sold our previous SFH @ $450 K , to a couple with two young kids. Hopefully his job is safe, because she is a full time mom and they are probably mortgaged to the hilt. We have been mortgage free (We threw every extra dollar at that sucker.) for a long time, so there was no pressure to sell, but I could see our hard earned equity evaporating with the sea change in real estate that is ongoing.
Looking at the glacial pace of sales in that part of city now, I am happy with my decision, but sorry for the family that bought our previous home. I will let you know should their BMW go AWOL.

#90 Buy? Curious? on 11.21.12 at 10:03 am

Bwahaha! I’ve gone from a teacher living in his basement to some type of Lesbian? You’re bang-on! Just like the bull market in Toronto Real Estate, interest rates and shorting Apple. Holy cow! You’re like a short fat version of Kreskin!

What’s a bubble head?

Just so you know, this incident that you shared with everyone about sharing porn with 3 young women, Under the Criminal Code of Canada, is sexual assault.

“#43 Smoking Man on 11.18.12 at 11:10 pm
#40 Old Man on 11.18.12 at 10:54 pm

Would not happen today old man, everybody on iphone and smart phones. They don’t talk anymore on the train.

One night coming home from the duke half cut, I loaded a vid from redtube, a porno site, cranked the volumn.

I was sitting with 3 hotties in mid 20′s. Well I was shocked, I was just trying to get a raise out off them, gauge a reaction for a chapter in the book, and they knew the names of the porno stars and said the resolution of my phone was amazing.

WTF we were born too soon.”

Did you crank up the volume to this porn site before or after you were sitting down with these women? What do you mean by “trying to get a raise out off them” to “gauge a reaction for a chapter” in your book? How did the conversation start considering you were half cut? Toronto girls (no offence) are the worst girls on the planet to pick up, gay or straight. Why would they engage with a drunk old man going through the final stages of a mid-life crisis about porn? “Nice weather we’re having. How was your night ladies? Don’t mind me. I’m just going to watch some porn.” What kind of porn was it? Who were these famous porn stars? James Deen? Jill Kelly? Who?

I don’t know why in the world you’d post that and consider it “competitive alpha male boastful chic chatter” It’s probably a porn addiction that even in public you can’t control. Don’t worry though, I won’t report it to the police like some of my other lesbian basement dwelling teachers would. Though it would be easy using a disposable email account.

http://www.torontopolice.on.ca/sexcrimes/

Just keep talking away.

How’s the book coming along? I bet you I’ll have a website up before your book is “published”.

Ahahaha!

#91 Just sayin on 11.21.12 at 10:17 am

To Soylent Green’s comments of yesterday – this is a real estate blog. Please keep your opinions of the Middle East conflict to yourself. Thank you.

#92 Smoking Man on 11.21.12 at 10:25 am

Wow BC. Seams I have hit a nerve. Bahahaing while you are burning up.
I’m good

#93 disciple on 11.21.12 at 10:35 am

Speaking of manipulation: I told you that the elections in Canada are rigged. Robo-calling is just the tip of the iceberg. The Cons spent 750,000 tax-payer dollars on monitoring the popularity of Jason Kenney by spying on ethnic minorities, and now with John Baird promoting the killing of innocent civilians in retaliation for killing innocent civilians all over the media, I wonder how much of your money will be spent on promoting this PITBULL? Are you disgusted yet? I will soon reveal the identity of this disgrace to Canada… stay tuned…

#94 disciple on 11.21.12 at 10:36 am

#90 Just sayin…. Why don’t you go stick your head back in your comfy sand… just sayin’

#95 disciple on 11.21.12 at 10:41 am

And by the way, Garth, your silence on my humble request speaks volumes…

What request? — Garth

#96 :) :( Ying Yang on 11.21.12 at 10:43 am

Just checking in on the blog regarding Canadian real estate “Days of Future Passed” but by hook or by crook got side swiped like a dyslexic savant reading the repartee between Buy? Curious? and Smoking man. I’m not sure if wading into discussions regarding the situation of the Canadian real estate market is providing me any insight. Stressing me out, no! The dialogue is definitely fodder for jesting and provides a diminutive Grinch like smile after reading it. Well I’m grinning and departing now as I make a land deal here in 905 land!

#97 Herb on 11.21.12 at 10:43 am

So what would RE be worth to-day IF interest rates had stayed normal, say 6%, mortgage periods had stayed at 25 years, and CMHC had not insured any and all bank mortgage lending?

Answering that question would clarify the RE cause/effect conundrum. Seductive marketing may have stoked the demand for RE, but it did not create the means of supplying it.

#98 Herb on 11.21.12 at 10:51 am

#91 SM,

No, you are not good, merely obnoxious. Especially to-day, when you’re not even funny.

#99 Purrfect on 11.21.12 at 10:52 am

No way in hell I’d pay $20 a month for the Globe & Mail online … but I’d gladly pay that for Garth’s blog

#100 Buy? Curious? on 11.21.12 at 10:53 am

Hit a nerve? Hahaha! Grrrr, you make me so angry with your righteous ways, phoney stories and misspelled lessons about success.

Smokey, Smokey, Smokey, you’re too much. I’m surprised Garth let’s us go on for this long. I’ve got a class to teach then a meeting at The Bearded Clam to discuss next year’s Pride sponsors. Hopefully I’ll have time to paint over the mould in my basement.

Smoking Man wins again!

Hahaha!

LINK DELETED

#101 Gunboat denier on 11.21.12 at 11:03 am

61 Dave – tuff to figure why a woman with a thick neck and square jaw is sooo attractive. Must be those eyes…..

#102 Daisy Mae on 11.21.12 at 11:12 am

“Yesterday I rubbed a few people the wrong way by saying the feds – with their War on the House – did not cause the current correction, but merely exposed it. No bad typing. I meant it. Mortgage brokers and realtors can blame killing off the 30-year mortgage….”

********************

Okay. I understand what you’re say. But I was thinking back, back, back….when the 0/40 was first introduced. It was the federal government that caused the ensuing tsunami of ridiculous credit borrowing, but no — they can’t take credit for the correction. It was inevitable. Cheap credit, weak minds. Right!

#103 Canadian Watchdog on 11.21.12 at 11:19 am

CMHC insurance-in-force 0.95 correlated with rising national home price. Residential mortgage credit 0.99. here

Lending drives demand and prices, not buyers who are broke.

#104 Daisy Mae on 11.21.12 at 11:25 am

“By the end of March even your mom will be on board.”

*****************

And then, even the weak sales will dry up. Wow! The worst is yet to come. And it WILL take literally years to recover from this…..

Garth — you’re amazing!

#105 Steve on 11.21.12 at 11:32 am

#100 Daisy Mae on 11.21.12 at 11:12 am

“…It was the federal government that caused the ensuing tsunami of ridiculous credit borrowing…”
__________________________________________
The government created the conditions (by adjusting regulations). We citizens then gorged ourselves. The government did NOT force us to borrow or bid up prices.

“Blame” should be allocated where it belongs, and when both parties behave questionably, both parties deserve part of the blame. Some are taking the position that only the government is responsible, and some that only the house horny are responsible. In reality, both are.

The government moved the edge of the cliff farther away and then the lemmings thought they could just keep swarming in that direction forever without consequence…

#106 Mixed Bag on 11.21.12 at 11:33 am

“with enough potlights to safely land an Airbus.”

Love it.

#107 Condo Sucker on 11.21.12 at 11:36 am

What a nightmare the Trump Tower in Toronto has turned out to be for its “investors”. Garth I’m hoping you bring this one up in one of your future posts, I’d be curious to hear your thoughts on that monstrosity.

#108 Snowboid on 11.21.12 at 11:36 am

#70 rentin on 11.21.12 at 3:05 am…

Great links, thanks – I especially like the suggestions on how to make money with the property – “… grow grapes or store trucks & heavy equipment…”

#109 Canadian Watchdog on 11.21.12 at 11:37 am

‘Progress’ made in renewed push for single securities watchdog, Flaherty says Link

And the monkey wrench again…

“We are unfortunately still grappling with the federal government’s will to interfere in the regulation of this sector,” Finance Minister Nicolas Marceau said in his budget speech to the legislature Tuesday. “We will never agree to give up our jurisdiction. We will continue to defend it, while working with the other provinces to improve securities oversight.”

All while your tax dollars are spent paying Bay St. lawyers $500/hr to draft another plan that was already overruled last December.

A single regulator is not in the interest of Canadians. This is another power move written by banks in the interest of banks.

#110 bill on 11.21.12 at 11:40 am

#53 Lachplesis on 11.21.12 at 12:45 am
Thanks for the info. that was disturbing.

#111 refinow on 11.21.12 at 11:41 am

Canadians feel good about bricks and mortar because the vast percentage of Canadian (Homeowners) have not lost tangible money yet.

A house is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it. Yes??

So if you are not selling it, it’s value is irrelevant.

However where it becomes more tangible is when you walk into the Bank in desperate need of a debt consolidation, and the Bank says “NO” your house is only worth “X”. What do they know?? They are just being conservative… no different then when that neighbor sells for $30,000 less then what you paid for your house 6 months ago. These become more tangible evidence of reductions in value.

Your house didn’t appreciate $100,000 overnight or in most situations in the last 12 months and the same can be said to values dropping. It takes time…

It also doesn’t happen all at once across the nation, it starts in one market, then another, and then another…

But in price reductions there is an accumulation factor if the buyers lose confidence in the long term benefit of owning a home. This is what was the real cause in the housing Bust in the US.

This is what hasn’t happened yet in Canada. Most Canadians still believe that a home is a good investment. Why wouldn’t they, since 1987, or for the last 25 years they have appreciated in value.

Also we are very protective of our homes, just like our kids, no one wants anything to go wrong with their home. My home is my castle…

But like I said in the beginning a home is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it.

With minimal income increases over the last 10 years, compounded with significant increases in housing prices, that puts a strain on affordability. Now add the changes in lending policies, the removal of the stated income programs by most lenders, the reductions in Amortizations and GDS and TDS. CMHC no longer insuring Mortgage refinances beyond 80%, and the discontinuance of insuring purchases above $1MM, we have a measurable change to the size of a mortgage they will allow a consumer to get. This means a reduction in the buying power of consumers, or the amount someone is willing to pay for your house.

First to go were the multiple offers over list. They are gone…

Next, the length of time it takes to sell your house….

Then a reduction in the # of sales

and an increase in the # of homes listed for sale.

These have all started to happen.

The average price of homes still show increases as properties that have been owned for a long period of time start to be sold.

A couple that bought 25 years ago for $135,000 finally sells their home. It could have easily gone up in value to 750,000, as proven by the fact that the exact same house sold last week for $750,000. So they list it for $760,000, it sits on the market for a few months, drop the price the $750,000 then 725,000, then $699,000 and finally after 6 months on the market, get an offer at $650,000. That is a $100,000 loss in value or drop of 13.33%. But guess what, it doesn’t show up on any real estate report. Their house was probably tax assessed at $580,000.

Even the city is looking forward to the future Property tax increase to support the $650,000 value.

They bought it for $135,000 25 years ago, sold it for $650,000. it increased in value right. And the house is in Burlington where the average detached home price is $475,000. So guess what it just contributed to the the 7% increase in house prices in Burlington last year.

But the fact of the matter is the neighbor sold the same house 6 months earlier for $750,000.

Losses are hard to see when properties that have been owned for are long period of time are sold, which is likely a vary large percentage of homes being sold today.

This is why when # of sales are dropping, significantly.. and yet prices are still increasing…

But are they ??? Really still increasing??

#112 tkid on 11.21.12 at 11:42 am

But I was thinking back, back, back….when the 0/40 was first introduced. It was the federal government that caused the ensuing tsunami of ridiculous credit borrowing, but no — they can’t take credit for the correction. It was inevitable.

The Feds introduced 0/40 so Canada would not go down the same path as Europe and the US. Keep the economy going and all that pain will be put off. That was the thinking. The hope was the pain would be put off long enough for the US to recover.

We didn’t have to take on larger mortgages, helocs, and credit cards. But we did. It’s different in Canada was our mantra.

Now the mantra is o.O

We are blaming the politicians for the inevitable mess, but we were given 5 years to prepare.

#113 Daisy Mae on 11.21.12 at 11:44 am

Globe & Mail: “Mr. Flaherty has tightened mortgage insurance rules four times in four years in an effort to stem the growth of consumer debt and house prices. His fear has been that Canadians are taking on too much debt in the form of mortgages, and that the market – especially certain pockets, such as Toronto’s condo market and Vancouver – was heating up too quickly. His aim has been to help the market find a “soft landing” and prevent a crash. He has suggested that he believes the changes are having their intended impact.”

*********************

The little twerp is trying to take credit for the correction? Well, it won’t work. All he’s doing is attempting to correct his drastic mistakes that triggered this mess.

GARTH: “(They) did not cause the current correction, but merely exposed it.”

The little weasel doesn’t give a damn about the people, and it shows….

#114 Tony on 11.21.12 at 11:45 am

Re: #34 Brad in Cowtown on 11.20.12 at 11:16 pm

All i see are price reductions, foreclosures and increased days on the market in Calgary.

#115 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.21.12 at 11:48 am

An interesting perspective on Why we won’t crash like the USA

Of course we will not have a US-style crash. It will be a Canadian version. Another unhelpful article attacking a straw man. — Garth

#116 Herb on 11.21.12 at 11:58 am

#90 Just sayin,

the masthead of this blog reads “… on economics, real estate, money and the road ahead.” Are you implying that the Middle East conflict has no bearing on these, or only that the Israel side is sacrosanct?

#117 Buy? Curious? on 11.21.12 at 12:02 pm

Sorry, Garth. Got a little carried away. May I post a link as to how Smoking Man has evolved?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HN46PjBbns0

#118 Form Man on 11.21.12 at 12:14 pm

#113 Daisy Mae

When Harper came to power in January 2006, CMHC required 5% down and a maximum 25 year amortization for mortgages. The Canadian housing market was already booming, but Harper and Flaherty were anxious to please their ideological masters, so more fuel was added to the fire:

March 2006 – rules were changed to 0% down and 30 year ams

July 2006 – 0% down, 35 year ams, interest only payments allowed for up to 10 years

November 2006 – 0% down, 40 years ams, 10 years interest only

unsurprisingly, by 2007, the market was really on fire, however problems with easy credit in the U.S. housing market were becoming apparent. In the autumn of 2008, the financial crisis hit, and F commanded CMHC to buy any and all mortgages from Canada’s banks that they wanted to sell ( this was to prevent a loss of confidence in Canada’s banks, and was in effect a taxpayer bailout ). F subsequently began slowly tightening the mortgage rules ( but not too fast, as they were in the hunt for a majority ). In conclusion it is apparent that Harper juiced an already hot market, and is now tightening a slowing market. Pretty much the opposite of what one would consider good economics. This is a puzzle because Harper constantly boasts about what a great economic manager he is……….

#119 all_we_need_is_mortgage on 11.21.12 at 12:17 pm

#9TurnerNation
/Today’s pic: “In Soviet Russia, Tommy guns you”?/

Wrong. This is not russian military uniform on the guy on the pic.
So, you can guess something else… but it would be more appropriate to know for sure before posting anything publicly.

#120 GTA Girl on 11.21.12 at 12:20 pm

Many of the comments on the recent Trump building fiasco asks why the CRA doesn’t investigate the speculators/developers.

Well, it would seem that with the OSC dragged into pending lawsuit, it’s a matter of time till the CRA raises their head. They will be called in, when the developer rattles on how selling condos as an investment scheme was legal.

Silly thing is almost EVERY night club lizard of a developer sold initial condo offerings as investment/ponzi schemes. Some are stupid enough to not pay capital gains.

This is what cocaine party lifestyle gets you children. Another RCMP raid with Ont Securities/CRA investigation.

Money laundering and tax evasion are both a mandatory sentence federally for anyone in land development.

As the market shrinks and collapses, people will be looking for someone to blame.

#121 45north on 11.21.12 at 12:27 pm

stage1Dave: I thought the bank might know something I didn’t when they offered me the loan, because I certainly wouldn’t loan that kind of money to me

pretty funny

#122 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.21.12 at 12:34 pm

#115};-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.21.12 at 11:48 am
An interesting perspective on Why we won’t crash like the USA

Of course we will not have a US-style crash. It will be a Canadian version. Another unhelpful article attacking a straw man. — Garth

What does it matter if you are amputating the right leg of one or the left arm of another? An amputation is an amputation and neither amputee emerges uncompromised.

It is not a question of whether we mirror the US-style crash or not but rather a question of whether we will be forced to endure as much capitulation as did the US. A “Canadian version” of the US-style crash is still a crash and if it unfolds as you predict it will have no less severe impact on many a household.

The title of that article Why we won’t crash like the USA may have been a tad misleading. Did you even read it?

Mr. Larock sums it up in his closing paragraph;

The bottom line: Like any informed observer who can see beyond his own short-term self interest to what is best for the whole economy over the long term; I am concerned about how ultra-low interest rates have pushed our household debt levels to record highs. But I reject the implication that we have driven over the debt cliff to financial ruin and are now in free fall just waiting to hit the ground.

And I do believe that closing comment is a uniquely Canadian perspective on the much less than inevitable prospect of a Canadian version of a US-style crash.

As you know, I have never forecast a ‘crash’ in Canada, but a correction which will be market-specific and in many case surprising and painful, in others only an irritation. — Garth

#123 Smoking Man on 11.21.12 at 12:36 pm

#177 BC
Perhaps I should throw in post menopausal, second time you posted that link in a week.

So what is it. Still fuming or old?

Just Courious

#124 Herb on 11.21.12 at 12:37 pm

#103 Canadian Watchdog,

amazing coincidence!

(Now if I could only figure out how I can get back to Garth’s blog from one of your links without having to exit the blog and starting all over again. The back-button merely leads me into an endless loop of nubile bodies advertising weight-loss. Suggestions?)

#125 :) :( Ying Yang on 11.21.12 at 12:40 pm

117 Buy? Curious? on 11.21.12 at 12:02 pm

Smile was rigorously diminished by late morning. Oh, thanks its back!

#126 CalgaryRocks on 11.21.12 at 12:47 pm

Yeah! The freaking mortgage just got paid off. The lady at the bank called us to apply the last partial payment to it so that she can send us the mortgage release paperwork.

It’s not a big house but it’s a paid house in a good central location and that makes me happy. We paid the minimum for the first 5 years and then paid the rest off in the last 3 years.

This RE crash couldn’t have come at a best time (assuming RE crash it is). We have enough money in the bank to put towards some investment properties but since our last flip in 2006 we haven’t seen anything that was really worth it.

Currently living one one income and saving the second as well as the business income. Waiting for the big crash.

#127 Canadian Watchdog on 11.21.12 at 12:48 pm

Here we go.. Agenda 21 must pursue.

Ontario proposes expanding GTA Greenbelt

“The government still wants to consult with the public but says there should be a decision in the new year. ”

——-

Public consultation like this?

#128 Steven Rowlandson on 11.21.12 at 12:48 pm

There is no wage growth to support real estate prices at even a quarter of current prices let alone existing prices therefore we must face the mother of all real estate price collapses all the way down to late 1960s levels. The economy will not pay workers enough to buy homes in Canada. So seniors, boomers and suckers the game is approaching its end and you lose!
I hope you like your overpriced homes and giant mortgages because you will be stuck with them.

#129 Ralph Cramdown on 11.21.12 at 12:49 pm

#29 JLH
… Toronto Life November issue. Profiled a number of young, educated and wealthy that are moving to Toronto from various countries … all of them saying how much they loved Toronto, the diversity, job opportunities, culture etc. I agree with Smoking Man, SFH’s in the GTA will not be heading south any time soon…

Check your figures. TREB reported that 416 SFH was up 5% over last year for October, at an average of $779k. For the first two weeks of bitter November, they’re saying $761k, up 1% from last year. Sales mix? Precipitous decline in immigration from Serbia and Ireland?

#130 City Slicker on 11.21.12 at 12:51 pm

#114 Tony on 11.21.12 at 11:45 am Re: #34 Brad in Cowtown on 11.20.12 at 11:16 pm

All i see are price reductions, foreclosures and increased days on the market in Calgary.
———————————————————-
I watch one street in Calgary by the Market Mall area, always 7-10 condos/townhouses with for sale signs for several months. Yeah some sell but generally cluttered with for sale signs. And I can imagine some just don’t put sale signs at the front as it just wouldn’t make a good impression for a sellers market. This will be an interesting one to watch as 2013 unfolds. Licking my chops…

#131 Form Man on 11.21.12 at 1:03 pm

#122 DA

If we are to compare Kelowna’s housing market to the U.S., it appears we might be in for even worse problems than have affected our southern neighbour.

4 years after the financial crisis and 3 years after the recession ended, Kelowna’s MOI is at 15 months, prices are down over 20% for SFH and over 50% for condos. The U.S. currently has an MOI of less than 6 months…….4 years later and there is no sign of of a turn around in the Okanagan yet………….you may be waiting on tables sooner than you thought……

#132 Bob on 11.21.12 at 1:13 pm

I really hope you are correct Garth. You’ve now put a very concrete timetable! 100 days after the “fiscal cliff” that you agree will be resolved… how do you reconcile what will happen in the stock, bond, and real-estate markets?

#133 Mister Obvious on 11.21.12 at 1:13 pm

#62 stage1dave

“I’m also being substantially distracted by Amanda Lang, but I’m not certain whether that’s because of her logical disection of the potential pitfalls of a housing backslide; or the fact that she’s smokin’ hot…or maybe I’m fascinated by someone who can spend almost an hour a day five days a week with Kevin O’leary…”
———————————–

I watched the show yesterday and was surprised to see the CBC has a “spare Amanda” to fill in on days when she has something more journalistically fulfilling to do than banter with O’Leary.

That would be one Danielle Bochove. She has the same general appearance, style, financial acumen and mannerisms as Lang with the same no nonsense push back attitude toward ‘Mr. Wonderful’.

Does the CBC run a school specifically for this role?

#134 Oceanside on 11.21.12 at 1:22 pm

Patricia Croft must work for F. Just amazing watching how she views the economy……Blinders on!

#135 dd on 11.21.12 at 1:33 pm

Bank of Japan – inflation targets at 3%.

This is just the start.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/20/us-japan-economy-shirakawa-idUSBRE8AJ0DN20121120

#136 Canadian Watchdog on 11.21.12 at 1:41 pm

GTA new home sales fall victim to new lending restrictions Link

Down 41% y/y.

#137 AprilNewwest on 11.21.12 at 1:48 pm

#74 -Waterloo Resident –
Why do you heed media “experts”? They’re full of BS. Prices are still way too high especially houses or anything in the city.

#138 Buy? Curious? on 11.21.12 at 1:57 pm

C’mon Smoking Man! Do you really think I’m some Lesbian teacher going through menopause? Where’s your imagination? Did you lose it in school when corporal punishment was the norm? Did you raise your hand one too many times to tell the class you wanted to be either an astronaught or an economist or disco instructor and had your skinny little bottom spanked? Then you became a recluse until you tried your mum’s spittle at the bottom of her wine glass and then *BOOM* instant confidence! From there you joined a circus suffering from financial difficulties and the only animals left were Meerkats. You loved those meerkats, until you laid your eyes on her, The Bearded Woman. Your heart was aflutter! She reciprocated your love and you both decided to leave the circus and open up a barber shop for strictly for women. The business eventually failed but she managed to have two boys though with all the hours you were putting there was suspicion that the boys weren’t yours. Again, you withdrew into your little world until some door-to-door saleswoman introduced you to computers. You were in love again! You ran away again but tried to stay close to your boys. It was tough and you turned to booze to ease the pain. And you’ve never looked back.

All because a teacher, who in hindsight (you did love those meerkats, didn’t you) was a lesbian and crushed your hopes of ever becoming a disco instructor. Well Smokey, you still have time though your drinking has left you with one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel. Listen, dust off your sequin purple body suit and make your way to the nearest dance floor and lives your dream, Smokey! Carp diem! Carp frickin Diem! (that’s Latin, Smokey, for seize the day).

#139 Ronaldo on 11.21.12 at 2:00 pm

#97 Herb –

”So what would RE be worth to-day IF interest rates had stayed normal, say 6%, mortgage periods had stayed at 25 years, and CMHC had not insured any and all bank mortgage lending?”

I would venture a guess that in Vancouver they would be half what they were at the top and falling.

#140 GenXer on 11.21.12 at 2:09 pm

One measure that I use is the “apprentice factor” for trades workers. No bank would even LOOK at me for a mortgage in the early to mid 90s when I was an apprentice in Calgary. Without journeyman status they figured one didn’t have the $ or job security to get a mortgage. They were right. It was hard to even get a credit card. There were empty rental apartments all over the city. Especially in Mission/Beltline/17th ave area.
First/last month free was very common in Calgary. You could move in to a new apt with just the damage deposit. For all you Calgary pumpers, I remember a MUCH different city from those days. Loads of 1/2 bed condos for under 100K (not that I could buy one)
Now: 1st years can buy condos and houses! WTF?? 2nd, 3rd, 4th can easily get BIG mortgages. There might be more job security during the boom, but the income:price ratios are way higher! Wages have risen, but have not kept up with house prices. Not at all. Perhaps this is a great example of pulling demand forward.

#141 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.21.12 at 2:19 pm

#131 Form Man on 11.21.12 at 1:03 pm

We’ll take it up someday later when both you and I can look back on and discuss what actually transpired, rather than you forecast what may and I contesting it. In the meantime, please, by all means believe what you want to believe. You may well prove to have been right. };-) Although I doubt it.

#142 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.21.12 at 2:21 pm

As you know, I have never forecast a ‘crash’ in Canada, but a correction which will be market-specific and in many case surprising and painful, in others only an irritation. — Garth

The correction happened in 2008 Garth. That it did then and how it did is actually one of your small successes. Our real estate market saw a 33% drop in sales volumes eradicating those high numbers at the peak of the ‘bubble’ which were double those prior. That I would call that a ‘correction’ and a forecasting win for you Garth. Subsequently, Kelowna real estate values dropped by about 15%. Another small forecasting victory for you Garth.

But now four years later is quite a different story. You continue to predict more capitulation on top of that which you predicted and that did infact occur. It’s almost as if you are trying to milk this pathetic blog again and again. Unfortunately Garth the time lag between one period of correction and the next I don’t think will support it. Fields sometimes need to be left fallow; sheep need time before being sheered again.

Now Toronto might be a different story and maybe even Vancouver too, as they do seem to be a tad exuberant given the current state of economic affairs. Vancouver though is correcting and I am quite sure Toronto will too. But in both cases neither was a product of that which led to the whole country’s economic failing in 2008. These are different times and those are different market-specifics.

#143 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.21.12 at 2:23 pm

I think I am well passed my newly self-imposed blog comment limit. Later…

#144 Ronaldo on 11.21.12 at 2:23 pm

#128 Steven Rowlandson –

”There is no wage growth to support real estate prices at even a quarter of current prices let alone existing prices therefore we must face the mother of all real estate price collapses all the way down to late 1960s levels. ”

This may apply to some places in Canada, e.g. Vancouver and Toronto, but there are many places in Canada where current wages are quite adequate to support current prices. In many areas, the peak came in the spring of 07 as with Alberta. In many areas prices corrected 15% and still remain there.

If prices were to correct to levels of the late 70’s, it would mean that a condo I purchased in 69 for $21,000 and which is now priced at $470,000 would have to drop $449,000 or over 2100%. The average wage would have to go back down to $8000/yr.

Your statement makes little sense. Are you related to Tony?

#145 LaughingCon on 11.21.12 at 2:25 pm

Re # #128 Steven Rowlandson

There is no wage growth to support real estate prices at even a quarter of current prices let alone existing prices therefore we must face the mother of all real estate price collapses all the way down to late 1960s levels.
=====================================

No wage growth – give me a break. Just wonder why the people refuse to look at the truth staring at them.

Under McGuinty rule the education budget went from $9.8 billion to $22.3 billion per year – with the same and now even less students enrolled. Where this giant money pile went??
Since McGuinty took power we have run $47.6B worth of “deficits” but added $118.9B worth of new net debt… Do you think that the government of any shape has a giant oven where they bring wheelbarrows with cash and burn them there.
It went into the pockets of the past, present and future generously paid public servants and for their pensions and benefits.

No wage growth, my foot…

Do you think they care about their retirement if they are guaranteed up to 70% of their salary as a pension with COL adjustments.

And the end result being they can threat them-self to a nice house or a two, and a vacation property in Florida or Arizona. And the price do not matter, as they will have their pension and the houses only go up with time…

Whazzup/Smoking Man – It will be a nasty crash realtors, a nasty crash

#146 Old Man on 11.21.12 at 2:31 pm

In the coming meltdown across Canada there will be several targets with provinces, cities, and areas within a city to consider. There will be many variables that will determine the x factor or decrease in asset value.

A few variables will be location, demographics, the economic conditions, percentage of mortgage leverage,
equity asset base per home; stats of average income in any given area, housing type, and the list is long.

There is a huge bubble in Canada, and property values will be going down with asset deflation. It will vary between 15 to 50% depending upon many complex factors. I look for what I call the weighted velocity factor of taking in a few negative variables in any given area to determine the end result.

Historically the condos will take the biggest hit; the summer cottage homes will not escape; and the normal residential properties will weather the storm best.

#147 Humpty Dumpty on 11.21.12 at 2:31 pm

You mean these guys…

America, once the land of the brave and the home of the free, is well on its way to becoming a police state – worse than any we’ve seen in the past, including the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/doug-casey-america-was-now-united-police-state-america

#148 Debt's Dark Embrace on 11.21.12 at 2:36 pm

#122 DA

If we are to compare Kelowna’s housing market to the U.S., it appears we might be in for even worse problems than have affected our southern neighbour.

4 years after the financial crisis and 3 years after the recession ended, Kelowna’s MOI is at 15 months, prices are down over 20% for SFH and over 50% for condos. The U.S. currently has an MOI of less than 6 months…….4 years later and there is no sign of of a turn around in the Okanagan yet………….you may be waiting on tables sooner than you thought……
////////////////////////////////////////////
I think you are correct. I returned to Kelowna after spending most of 2011/12 in Asia and this is what friends and family with feet on the ground here are telling me. No numbers to spin or manipulate, just observations from living here.

#149 KommyKim on 11.21.12 at 2:38 pm

RE: #13 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.20.12 at 10:24 pm Re Photo:
Looks like an NDP day care……. Comrade

No, it looks more like a NRA/Conservative/Republican youth rally to me. The NDP would take your guns away.

#150 maxx on 11.21.12 at 2:50 pm

“…..golf-club hugging West Coast McMansions”

Pesticide and herbicide-laden luxury living, anyone? Beware spiking increases in your toxic load, especially as you age…..realtards notwithstanding.

Is your golf course community organically maintained, and pesticide/herbicide-free?

Controlled classes of these poisons carry directives re “re-entry” times onto the course after application. What if you’re a permanent resident bordering or near a course maintained with controlled-class poisons? Are residents informed as to the application schedules? Do you leave your home every time such poisons are applied? For how long? Are the guidelines 100% safe? What about runoff, leaching and wind transmission? What about chronic exposure?

To scary to even contemplate. Pass on that lifestyle for me.

Didn’t we already have enough to worry about? — Garth

#151 Mm on 11.21.12 at 2:58 pm

As a serious follower and a newbie, Dear Garth! I listed my house last Feb with 420,000 and sold with 378,000 yesterday. Can’t be feel free-er. So what’s next? How long do I wait to back in?

#152 Uwinsome on 11.21.12 at 3:23 pm

The New Style of Marketing Condos:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NFV8dHrZYM

#153 six-figure-renter on 11.21.12 at 3:30 pm

BEST POST EVER!

#154 Old Man on 11.21.12 at 3:37 pm

Now will make another point for those in 416 that got hooped into buying a condo or debt with cheap money a few years ago. Let me take you for a walk back to Toronto in 1977 as my target date, as did hundreds of deals. One could buy a home for $72,000 that would be worth about $800,000 today.

Now a married couple making good money would have a combined gross income of about $40,000 to buy an asset worth $72,000, that today is worth much more, or the ratio is 55.56 of gross income for a purchase, so brag on about how much money you earn to buy the pie in the sky, as taxation on a net basis is higher, so now what?

Things have changed as deflation is hitting the unions and wages as well, so now what? What are you going to do, if one in the marriage loses a job? This is not going to be a pretty picture, as too many of you made a buy at the top to become rich with capital gains.

#155 JohnyBoy on 11.21.12 at 3:45 pm

Why are Home Prices “GO”-ing up in Halton Hills?

Are you wondering why home prices in Halton Hills are increasing, and if this trend will continue? Read on for an explanation! Often as local realtors, we are asked about home values in Halton Hills. Georgetown has always had a shortage of listings, and prices continue to increase because people want to live here. Pretty soon we will have hourly GO service with weekend and holiday trains. Additionally, we will also be able to get to the airport and back easily via the new train by 2015. When Oakville added the additional GO train service years ago their prices increased instantly. All of these things will continue to make Halton Hills more appealing and keep the demand for listings high. This will not be changing and will only continue to amplify.

And you own there, right pumper-boy? — Garth

#156 Brad in Calgary on 11.21.12 at 3:50 pm

#114 Tony on 11.21.12 at 11:45 am

Re: #34 Brad in Cowtown on 11.20.12 at 11:16 pm

All i see are price reductions, foreclosures and increased days on the market in Calgary.

I doubt that’s true, but even if it is, perhaps you’d be better served doing some actual research instead of relying on anecdotes. Leave those to Garth, as they’ve made him semi-famous.

#157 Vamanos Pest on 11.21.12 at 4:06 pm

Garth, ever consider even your predictions of RE are too optimistic? Does it fully account for the loss of confidence the market correction would induce? The loss of the wealth effect? History teaches us that when bubbles correct, they don’t tend to correct to be in line with fundamentals, they tend to swing past this, and come to bottom with the asset in question being undervalued with respect to underlying fundamentals. Maybe a post devoted to just how bad it COULD be, beyond what you actually think is likely to happen. I know you’re too level headed to predict outright US style disaster, but you must admit this is in fact a possibility. Be bold, what have you got to lose? Your naysayers already think the hamster in your brain has fallen off his wheel.

Direction is required now, not more fear. Besides, my hamster died. — Garth

#158 Old Man on 11.21.12 at 4:12 pm

Now for you that trash the Smoking Man I have big news for you all, as do not worry about him, as still own a modest 6 plex in Port Credit that have held for many years; can always kick someone out to make room for him if he needs some accommodation. Not too far from his wild club in Long Branch, and might appoint him as my building manager, as all my tenants are hot babes who also go to southside johnny’s.

#159 Smoking Man on 11.21.12 at 4:19 pm

#145 LaughingCon

Nice post. Pinocio mcgoffy has done ont no favores.

#138,, Buy? Courious. So your a feminized male then. Ask old man what a sweetie wife is.

#160 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.21.12 at 4:26 pm

Did this one get lost or strike a nerve?

Ad hominem arguments are unworthy of posting. — Garth

#161 rosie on 11.21.12 at 4:32 pm

This gay banter between smoking man and buy curious is off topic. Get a room boys.

#162 Canadian Watchdog on 11.21.12 at 4:43 pm

TransUnion: Personal Debt Levels Balloon to Highest Levels Ever

Avg Consumer Debt Y/Y Chg (excluding mortgages)
British Columbia +6.2%
Alberta +1.5%
Ontario +5.7%
Quebec +2.3%

At what point does one realize that consumers are just shuffling debt around and that Canada is already in the biggest financial debt crisis in history?

#163 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.21.12 at 4:44 pm

#151Mm on 11.21.12 at 2:58 pm
As a serious follower and a newbie, Dear Garth! I listed my house last Feb with 420,000 and sold with 378,000 yesterday. Can’t be feel free-er. So what’s next? How long do I wait to back in?

Check out

http://youtu.be/ICzN1DsvKSY

But you may well prove to have sold at the bottom and now forced to buy on the ramp back up thus negating any benefit to be had from your poor timing and quite possibly imposing upon you significant losses and negating the ability to buy back that which you sold for how little you sold it. But maybe you’ll be lucky and what I warn as a possible outcome never happens at all.

That vid is an embarrassment. The fact you recommended it is a substantial disappointment. — Garth

#164 eagle eyes on 11.21.12 at 4:51 pm

Isn’t Amanda Lang superman’s girlfriend? She’s prrrrety. Have you been to Richmond Lately? It’s pretty much similar to the ghost cities of China. Lots of unoccupied homes, and vacant condos. If you look at some high rises you will see many units are dark. Maybe, these people all have night-vision goggles? Not many sales, even though asking prices have dropped significantly. Maybe these sellers don’t really have to sell.

#165 Renter on 11.21.12 at 4:52 pm

OK – convinced. I rented for the past year waiting for the correction in house prices. Nothing much happened until the last few months. Lease is up now but seems too soon to buy. Gonna rent for a bit more but how much more? Safe to take on another year lease and hope prices slide all thru 2013?

#166 winter's coming on 11.21.12 at 5:00 pm

I just don’t want to live in Canada anymore.

What’s the point?
Healthcare: total joke.
Climate? Oh yeah, it’s to die for.
Jobs: Don’t want to live in Fort mac just for a decent paycheque.
Friends: You mean those people I know who voted for Harper and have their heads in the sand?
Family: Boomer snowbirds who don’t care about anyone else but themselves.
Architecture & vibrant city life?: HA HA HA!!!!
Low Cost of Living? sure, if you don’t count energy, taxes or fresh food.

so… yeah. why are we all worrying about the price of RE in this Godforsaken backwater iceberg of a bland, authoritarian nanny state? Let’s all move out!

#167 Mike on 11.21.12 at 5:29 pm

Great post. Perfect blend of fact and funny.

#168 Canadian Watchdog on 11.21.12 at 5:42 pm

#165 Renter

Waiting for a correction is not a strategy with the amount of uncertainly in the global economy.

#169 Buy? Curious? on 11.21.12 at 5:47 pm

Smokey, is “Sweetie Wife” some term from the 50’s? And what is exactly a feminized man?

Okay, boys. If the Israelis and Palestinians can stop with the pissing match, so can you. Or I’ll send in Hilary. — Garth

#170 Old Man on 11.21.12 at 5:52 pm

I had this tenant coming to me who was making $18.00 an hour who got laid off, and her entire world was coming down on her, as said can no longer pay the rent, and please do not throw me on the street in Port Credit, and can we make a deal. She just bought a new car, and her unemployment insurance amounted to just $1,386.00 a month which would leave her $511.00 after she paid her rent to me.

I told her with me there is always a deal, so will sail for 6 months, so just pay me $400.00 a month on time, and all will be well, as will give you a break, as keep your other debts up to date for a good credit rating, and get your ass moving to find employment so you can pay me back lol.

#171 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.21.12 at 6:01 pm

RE: #163

”That vid is an embarrassment. The fact you recommended it is a substantial disappointment”. — Garth

The vid was the bait, the comment the hook.

But thanks for thinking so highly of me you thought I ought do better.

#172 This is Wonderland on 11.21.12 at 6:08 pm

#30JLH on 11.20.12 at 11:02 pm

Just read the Toronto Life November issue. Profiled a number of young, educated and wealthy that are moving to Toronto from various countries around the world. UK, USA, Serbia, Hong Kong, Scotland, Ireland , Mexico all of them saying how much they loved Toronto, the diversity, job opportunities, culture etc. I agree with Smoking Man, SFH’s in the GTA will not be heading south any time soon…….
—————————————————————–

That’s funny last year it was people moving out of Toronto.

I wonder what Toronto life will be publishing next year?

http://www.torontolife.com/daily/informer/from-print-edition-informer/2011/09/14/exodus-to-the-burbs-why-diehard-downtowners-are-giving-up-on-the-city/

#173 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.21.12 at 6:08 pm

#160};-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.21.12 at 4:26 pm

Did this one get lost or strike a nerve?

”Ad hominem arguments are unworthy of posting.” — Garth

I don’t agree. As I recall there were some acknowledgement and acceptance by me of your good works. But hey, It is your blog and you can do whatever you want to do. I understand. Too bad though as, and I think you’d agree, it was one of my better posts.

I thought this was your blog. — Garth

#174 This is Wonderland on 11.21.12 at 6:21 pm

#155JohnyBoy on 11.21.12 at 3:45 pm

Why are Home Prices “GO”-ing up in Halton Hills?

Are you wondering why home prices in Halton Hills are increasing, and if this trend will continue? Read on for an explanation! Often as local realtors, we are asked about home values in Halton Hills. Georgetown has always had a shortage of listings, and prices continue to increase because people want to live here. Pretty soon we will have hourly GO service with weekend and holiday trains. Additionally, we will also be able to get to the airport and back easily via the new train by 2015. When Oakville added the additional GO train service years ago their prices increased instantly. All of these things will continue to make Halton Hills more appealing and keep the demand for listings high. This will not be changing and will only continue to amplify.
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Ok I couldnt pass this up….what the F@#$@&!

Sales haven’t slowed in Georgetown? I’ve been watching Georgetown for awhile and everything has gone stagnant….how about this listings that has been on MLS for months.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12116740&PidKey=2015420381

or this

http://comfree.com/2-storey-for-sale-georgetown-ontario-371838?from=realtor.ca

or this

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12624508&PidKey=1434738001

or this which has been on the market since last spring.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12325127&PidKey=1866139910

#175 Mm on 11.21.12 at 6:29 pm

To aka Devil’s Advocate
I’m not forced to buy. Besides I still make some profit out the house I just sold that I bought in 2009 March dern cheap. I’m fine to stay rent in my parent’s basement that I use to live when I was single. Still, I am a believer in owning then renting. I’m truely waiting Garth’s to answer. Thanks!

#176 Uwinsome on 11.21.12 at 6:38 pm

Declining House sales and it’s effect on Banks:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/canadian-bank-stocks-ignore-housing-creaks/article5532168/

#177 TRT on 11.21.12 at 6:43 pm

#170 Old Man:

Do you pay income taxes on your rent? CRA know?

#178 Canuck Abroad on 11.21.12 at 6:48 pm

Garth, yesterday you wrote: “Actually I am not pro-renting. Real estate ownership is just fine, if you can afford it and so long as housing remains a reasonable weighting in an overall net worth profile. — Garth…”

And you followed it up with “Rule of 90″ when someone queried it. So are you saying real estate is usually (just not NOW) a good thing to own and that everyone should own real estate if they are able to (just don’t buy NOW obviously). And only up to the rule of 90 level.

What about if you aren’t interested in owning real estate because you like to move around? Can real estate be 0% of a decent portfolio, or is this -always- a poor decision in your opinion? Can you get your real estate component of your portfolio with REITs, or are you hurting yourself by ignoring the benefits of leverage (when real estate is cheap) because “you have to live somewhere”.

I’m curious because I know in Switzerland and Germany large proportions of the population rent for their entire lives and still seem to come out okay financially. So surely this is okay if it suits your lifestyle? Your comment really threw me yesterday…

#179 Smoking Man on 11.21.12 at 6:51 pm

Okay, boys. If the Israelis and Palestinians can stop with the pissing match, so can you. Or I’ll send in Hilary. — Garth

But its so much fun.

Your Blog I will comply while sober.

#180 Bill Gable on 11.21.12 at 6:58 pm

#166

Are you Stephen Harper?

#181 robert on 11.21.12 at 7:01 pm

When will the madness stop. Canadians are up to their butts in debt with little to no savings. The economy is flat at best and 2013 could very well usher in the next recession. Employment is teetering if you look at full time stats and deficits are expanding. Now add to this a deflationary real estate market combined with tight credit conditions. The madness is clear and the only question is not will but when will Canadians realize that their financial futures are at risk. The boomers by spring will be selling their homes on mass as they begin to realize that their retirements are at risk. Negative yes but realistic.

#182 Jennifer Schell on 11.21.12 at 7:06 pm

As a Re/Max agent, I think I can provide some guidance to this report to help people out. Maybe you should follow these rules if you want to ensure that you don’t ward off buyers. Cheers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHrl6y8b_94&feature=plcp

#183 Old Man on 11.21.12 at 7:23 pm

There is an all old saying in Toronto that bullshit walks, but money talks. I will never for the day at the Royal York Hotel with big stars at the Imperial Room with this big line up trying to get a table; hey took my babe of choice, and just moved up to the man, and passed him a $20.00 bill, and said a table for two near the front – if you want to play you must pay.

#184 Herb on 11.21.12 at 7:32 pm

#169 – Garth’s threat –

you’d better send in Hilary, Garth. She may not be able to sort out the Middle East, but she’ll scare those two witless and compliant.

#185 Old Man on 11.21.12 at 7:36 pm

#178 TRT – there is one in my life that will never mess with and that is an income tax fraud, as will leave that for others, as can sleep at night without no fear in the world from the TAXMAN.

#186 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.21.12 at 7:44 pm

”I thought this was your blog.” — Garth

Consider it my own little occupy movement. };-)

#175Mm on 11.21.12 at 6:29 pm
To aka Devil’s Advocate

I’m not forced to buy. Besides I still make some profit out the house I just sold that I bought in 2009 March dern cheap. I’m fine to stay rent in my parent’s basement that I use to live when I was single. Still, I am a believer in owning then renting. I’m truely waiting Garth’s to answer. Thanks!

Me too… waiting for Garth to answer you that is.

On the parents basement thing… isn’t that, sooner than later, likely to provide the serious motivation which will in effect force you to buy? Wolowitz?

#187 Herb on 11.21.12 at 8:52 pm

#186 Old Man,

gee, another congruence with SM. What a surprise!

#188 Daisy Mae on 11.21.12 at 9:57 pm

#155 Johnyboy: “Are you wondering why home prices in Halton Hills are increasing, and if this trend will continue?”

***************

Shadup…..

#189 new canadian on 11.22.12 at 12:23 am

#38 Julia
Heh, poor Canada needs immigrants’ money to avoid market crash.
Canada is already selling permanent residence for money. Big lie to call it investor visa. Banks even give you 5-year $800K loan and ask for interest payment (about $130K) So that is the cost of getting PR for you and family. Most of these people are really not interested in living here and they are smart enough not to pay $500K for some plywood and glued bricks placed in freezer section of earth.

While Canada’s global image and value is deteriorating quickly, Canada can still sell citizenship. This will help pay Federal debt, Ontario debt (only two of those already around $1 trillion)

There will be less people to pay for it after 10-20 years. Canada’s politics are no longer for human rights, equality etc. Underdeveloped countries are going very fast while Canada will have a big crash with this real estate and US is doomed, no help from there. There will be much less people from China, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Philippines willing to come to Canada after 20 years.

But after 20 years, same-sex marriages still won’t be allowed in Muslim countries, Greek economy may be still tanking and big civil war may happen in Africa. So I see enough number of refugees to avoid population drop in Canada.

#190 geo on 11.22.12 at 12:03 pm

“Cheap credit and weak minds created this.” That sentence will stay with me always. Pretty much describes the western world today.

#191 Red on 11.22.12 at 1:02 pm

Thanks for the post today, I’ve been keeping my own spreadsheet to track sales data in a few areas that I’m interested in. It’s frustrating to not be able to get access to the same information I did in the US when we purchased a place there. One of the issues that really irritates is having RE industry people collect peoples personal information and claim it as their own intellectual property. If they manipulate it then fine it’s their work, their pie charts. However if government agencies like MPAC, CMHC, and CRA collect information on real estate transactions (which I assume all of them do given the nature of their jobs) why is it not already available from another government source?

Also, as I’ve been compiling data I’ve noticed really sneaky manipulation occurring. A house that was listed for $350,000 for 2 days was then dropped to $340,000 and entered into negotiations on the 3rd day then closed 5 days after that for $350,000. The sales report and sign shows “SOLD OVER ASKING” when it went for the original asking price. The other thing that has bothered me is old listings disappearing for a day or two and then reappearing with a new price, effectively setting the days on the market back to 0 and the number of days on market reported on the sales sheet when it does sell, significantly less. It seems very underhanded and deliberately misleading.

I just can’t understand why I can research past prices of a bottle of shampoo I’m looking at purchasing, and look at how much the same shampoo sells for at different retailers and in different cities, but I can’t get as much information.

And don’t even get started on the BRA crap. It protects the realtor, not the buyer. If you make an offer and the buyer counters and you walk because you don’t like the terms, the realtor has the ability to go after you if they think the counter was reasonable, nevermind that it’s not what you’re willing to pay or what your offer was.

#192 :) :( Ying Yang on 11.23.12 at 9:52 am

#174 This is Wonderland on 11.21.12 at 6:21 pm
You r comments are well taken Wonderputz. Merely a comment on the long term prospective regarding gains in the Halton Hills area. We are as you pointed out flat-lining right now in the market. Sorry for the late reply out selling land in USA.